jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: How many people will have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US as of 31 May 2021, according to the CDC?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Fully Vaccinated” (CDC). The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-05-05; closed: 2021-05-31
Options: Fewer than 120,000,000, Between 120,000,000 and 130,000,000, inclusive, More than 130,000,000 but fewer than 140,000,000, Between 140,000,000 and 150,000,000, inclusive, More than 150,000,000 but fewer than 160,000,000, Between 160,000,000 and 170,000,000, inclusive, More than 170,000,000
Answer: More than 130,000,000 but fewer than 140,000,000
Question: How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 5 June﻿ 2021?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 30 May 2021 through 5 June﻿ 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 29 May 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 5 June 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-05-05; closed: 2021-06-05
Options: Fewer than 1,500, Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive, More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500, Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive, More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500, Between 7,500 and 9,000 inclusive, More than 9,000 but fewer than 10,500, Between 10,500 and 12,000 inclusive, More than 12,000
Answer: Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive
Question: How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 5 June﻿ 2021?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 30 May 2021 through 5 June﻿ 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 29 May 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 5 June 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-05-05; closed: 2021-06-05
Options: Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, Between 550,000 and 650,000, inclusive, More than 650,000 but fewer than 750,000, Between 750,000 and 850,000, inclusive, More than 850,000
Answer: Fewer than 150,000
Question: How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 May 2021, according to the CDC?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People with at least One Dose” (CDC). The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-05-05; closed: 2021-05-31
Options: Fewer than 170,000,000, Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive, More than 180,000,000 but fewer than 190,000,000, Between 190,000,000 and 200,000,000, inclusive, More than 200,000,000 but fewer than 210,000,000, Between 210,000,000 and 220,000,000, inclusive, More than 220,000,000
Answer: Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive
Question: How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 5 June 2021?
The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week ending 5 June﻿ 2021 (Healthdata.gov). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and US Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 31 May 2021 through 6 June 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-05-05; closed: 2021-06-05
Options: Fewer than 10,000, Between 10,000 and 20,000, inclusive, More than 20,000 but fewer than 30,000, Between 30,000 and 40,000, inclusive, More than 40,000 but fewer than 50,000, Between 50,000 and 60,000, inclusive, More than 60,000 but fewer than 70,000, Between 70,000 and 80,000, inclusive, More than 80,000
Answer: Between 10,000 and 20,000, inclusive
Question: For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?
The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 (WHO COVID-19 Dashboard). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-10-09; closed: 2021-06-11
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?
Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic (CNN). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA (TSA). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.
Tags: Business, Health
Question opened: 2020-09-04; closed: 2021-06-13
Options: Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021
Answer: Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021
Question: Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%?
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed (Economist, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively (ONS, see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.The Superforecaster version of this question is at The Economist dashboard.
Tags: Society, Health
Question opened: 2020-12-04; closed: 2021-06-03
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?
The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Tags: Business
Question opened: 2020-12-09; closed: 2021-06-01
Options: Less than $2.00, Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive, More than $2.50 but less than $3.00, Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive, More than $3.50
Answer: Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive
Question: When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?
Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 (Government of Canada, U.S. Embassy - Canada, Bloomberg). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.
Tags: Health, Foreign Policy
Question opened: 2020-10-16; closed: 2021-06-01
Options: Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021
Answer: Not before 1 June 2021
Question: Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?
The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 (UEFA, UEFA (Clubs)).
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2020-09-18; closed: 2021-05-29
Options: England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Another country, There will not be a 2020-21 final winner
Answer: England
Question: When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?
Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers (BBC, Sky Sports, Goal, Premier League).
Tags: Health, Sports
Question opened: 2020-09-18; closed: 2021-05-23
Options: Before 19 October 2020, Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021, Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021, Not before 24 May 2021
Answer: Not before 24 May 2021
Question: Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021?
NYC has imposed various restrictions on restaurants and other establishments as the city and the world deal with the COVID-19 pandemic (Spectrum News, WABC). As of 26 March 2021, restaurants in NYC were permitted to reopen for indoor dining at 50% of capacity (nyc.gov - Business and Facilities Page, nyc.gov - Restaurant Reopening Guide). Exemptions and/or waivers for specific restaurants would not count.
Tags: Business, Health, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-03-26; closed: 2021-05-19
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?
The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates (Morningstar, KATU). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May (FRED). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-10-02; closed: 2021-05-01
Options: Less than 1.0 million, Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive, More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million
Answer: Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive
Question: On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?
On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections (Economist, Al Jazeera, BBC, CNN). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it (Ethiopian Constitution, see Article 93).
Tags: Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-11-13; closed: 2021-05-12
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People with at least One Dose” (CDC). The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-04-07; closed: 2021-04-30
Options: Fewer than 130,000,000, Between 130,000,000 and 140,000,000, inclusive, More than 140,000,000 but fewer than 150,000,000, Between 150,000,000 and 160,000,000, inclusive, More than 160,000,000 but fewer than 170,000,000, Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive, More than 180,000,000
Answer: More than 140,000,000 but fewer than 150,000,000
Question: How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 1 May 2021?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 25 April 2021 through 1 May 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 24 April 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 1 May 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-04-07; closed: 2021-05-01
Options: Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, Between 550,000 and 650,000, inclusive, More than 650,000 but fewer than 750,000, Between 750,000 and 850,000, inclusive, More than 850,000
Answer: More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000
Question: How many people will have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Fully Vaccinated” (CDC). The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-04-07; closed: 2021-04-30
Options: Fewer than 85,000,000, Between 85,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive, More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 105,000,000, Between 105,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive, More than 115,000,000 but fewer than 125,000,000, Between 125,000,000 and 135,000,000, inclusive, More than 135,000,000
Answer: Between 105,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive
Question: How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 1 May 2021?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 25 April 2021 through 1 May 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 24 April 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 1 May 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-04-07; closed: 2021-05-01
Options: Fewer than 1,500, Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive, More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500, Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive, More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500, Between 7,500 and 9,000 inclusive, More than 9,000 but fewer than 10,500, Between 10,500 and 12,000 inclusive, More than 12,000
Answer: Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive
Question: How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 1 May 2021?
The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week ending 1 May 2021 (Healthdata.gov). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and US Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 26 April 2021 through 2 May 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-04-07; closed: 2021-05-01
Options: Fewer than 15,000, Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive, More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive, More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000, Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive, More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000, Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive, More than 85,000
Answer: More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000
Question: Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?
The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 (Edinburgh Live, Parliament.scot, Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom (BBC).
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-01-15; closed: 2021-05-06
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?
The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the "Bank Rate" (Economist, Bank of England). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK (BBC, Guardian, S&P Global, Financial Times).
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2020-12-11; closed: 2021-05-06
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?
Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times (Economist, Barron's, Le Monde [in French]).
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-01-29; closed: 2021-04-26
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?
On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following (ABC News, Dallas Morning News, Texas.gov). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 (TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard [click “Trends”], TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data [Excel file], TX DSHS - Probable Cases). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021.
Tags: Health, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-03-05; closed: 2021-05-01
Options: Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, 550,000 or more
Answer: Fewer than 150,000
Question: Will the unemployment rate for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) exceed 5.00% in 2020?
Question opened: 2020-05-21; closed: 2021-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?
Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 (ESPN, Olympic Games, Paralympic Games). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all (BBC). Postponement(s) alone would not count.
Tags: Health, Sports
Question opened: 2020-06-22; closed: 2021-05-01
Options: Yes, the Olympics only, Yes, the Paralympics only, Yes, both, No
Answer: No
Question: Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?
Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California (Washington Post, CBS SF BayArea, California AB 2125, National Conference of State Legislatures). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, "voting system" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (U.S. Election Assistance Commission). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021.
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2020-09-11; closed: 2021-05-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position (Middle East Monitor, Times of Israel, Foreign Policy).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit
Question opened: 2020-11-06; closed: 2021-05-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?
As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India (France24). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 (WHO COVID-19 Dashboard).
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-10-23; closed: 2021-04-30
Options: 3, 4, 5 or 6, 7 or 8, 9 or more
Answer: 7 or 8
Question: At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?
The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2020-12-22; closed: 2021-04-28
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?
The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO COVID-19 Dashboard).
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-11-09; closed: 2021-04-26
Options: Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021
Answer: Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021
Question: Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year?
The 93rd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 (Oscars).
Tags: Entertainment
Question opened: 2021-03-17; closed: 2021-04-25
Options: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7, A tie or other outcome
Answer: Nomadland
Question: Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing?
The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 (Oscars).
Tags: Entertainment
Question opened: 2021-03-17; closed: 2021-04-25
Options: Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg), Mank (David Fincher), Minari (Lee Isaac Chung), Nomadland (Chloé Zhao), Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell), A tie or other outcome
Answer: Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)