jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Before 1 June 2023, will President Xi of China and President Zelensky of Ukraine meet in person?
As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, China has shared a peace plan for the countries (AP, BBC, NBC News). The meeting must be face-to-face but can occur in any venue and does not need to be bilateral to count. If either Xi or Zelensky cease to be the president of their respective countries, the question will close "No."
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-03-08; closed: 2023-06-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Turkish lira exchange rate on 31 May 2023?
Observers are weighing in on the prospects for the Turkish currency as the country's presidential election looms (NASDAQ, Yahoo). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the US by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-04-21; closed: 2023-05-30
Options: Lower than 18.00, Between 18.00 and 20.00, inclusive, Higher than 20.00 but lower than 22.00, Between 22.00 and 24.00, inclusive, Higher than 24.00 but lower than 26.00, 26.00 or higher
Answer: Higher than 20.00 but lower than 22.00
Question: Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 June 2023?
SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as March 2023, though it is waiting for a license from the Federal Aviation Administration (Teslarati, CNET, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2023-03-03; closed: 2023-06-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the closing value of the US dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate on 31 May 2023?
The dollar has come off of highs from last year as recession fears rise and with the prospect of monetary policy changes in Japan (NASDAQ, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the US by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2023-04-21; closed: 2023-05-30
Options: Lower than 120.00, Between 120.00 and 125.00, inclusive, Higher than 125.00 but lower than 130.00, Between 130.00 and 135.00, inclusive, Higher than 135.00 but lower than 140.00, Between 140.00 and 145.00, inclusive, Higher than 145.00
Answer: Higher than 135.00 but lower than 140.00
Question: Will the Chinese government publicly announce that it has approved the use of a foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for use among its citizens in the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 31 May 2023?
While China in November 2022 agreed to allow German expatriates in the country to receive Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines, China has yet to approve more effective foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccines for use among Chinese citizens (Politico, JHU Bloomberg School of Public Health). An approval does not need to include every Chinese citizen to count, but approvals for research and/or trials alone would not count. China approving the use of a foreign-developed vaccine that would be manufactured in China would count. China approving the use of a vaccine developed in a partnership between Chinese and foreign firms would not count.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-03-15; closed: 2023-05-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 31 May 2023, will a NATO member state publicly accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine?
As the war in Ukraine continues, fears remain that Russia may use chemical or biological weapons (Atlantic Council, US News & World Report, Daily Mail). As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (NATO). The use of chemical or biological agents confined to an individual or small group of individuals in noncombat situations would not count (e.g., Sergei and Yulia Skripal, Alexander Litvinenko, Viktor Yushchenko, Roman Abramovich (Daily Mail, BBC). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. Accusations about incidents prior to the launch of this question would be immaterial. An accusation must assert that Russia used a weapon that was itself a chemical or biological weapon, but an accusation of the use of white phosphorus and/or tear gas alone would not count.
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2023-03-08; closed: 2023-05-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many total visitors will there be to Dubai's Public Parks and Children's City in 2022?
The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the Dubai Statistics Center (Dubai Statistics Center - Culture and Leisure, see "Visitors of Public Parks and Children's City by Type"). The figure in the PDF file will be used for resolution. In 2021, there were a total of 4,116,269 visitors to Dubai's Public Parks and Children's City (Visitors of Public Parks and Children's City by Type - Emirate of Dubai (2021 - 2019)).
Tags: Society, Health, Entertainment
Question opened: 2022-11-25; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Fewer than 4.0 million, Between 4.0 million and 4.3 million, inclusive, More than 4.3 million but fewer than 4.6 million, Between 4.6 million and 4.9 million, inclusive, More than 4.9 million but fewer than 5.2 million, 5.2 million or more
Answer: 5.2 million or more
Question: How much liquified natural gas (LNG) will the US export between October 2022 and March 2023?
US LNG exports will be essential for Europe and others as they attempt to wean themselves off Russian gas as Russia's war in Ukraine continues (US News & World Report, Deutsche Welle, OilPrice.com, Energy Information Administration). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Energy Information Administration for October 2022 to March 2023 as of its first report for March 2023 (Energy Information Administration - Liquified US Natural Gas Exports). As of the launch of this question, the EIA reported the US exported 1,984,552 million cubic feet (mcf), or 1.984552 trillion cubic feet (tcf), from October 2021 to March 2022.
Tags: Business, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-09-30; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Less than 1.900 tcf, Between 1.900 tcf and 2.025 tcf, inclusive, More than 2.025 tcf but less than 2.150 tcf, Between 2.150 tcf and 2.275 tcf, inclusive, More than 2.275 tcf but less than 2.400 tcf, 2.400 tcf or more
Answer: Between 1.900 tcf and 2.025 tcf, inclusive
Question: What will be the average price of a litre of gasoline in Vancouver, British Columbia, on 31 May 2023, according to the Canadian Automobile Association (CAA)?
The price of gasoline in Vancouver, BC, is well off its highs for 2022, though various factors may push prices back up in 2023 (Daily Hive). The question will be suspended on 30 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CAA for 31 May 2023 (CAA, change "Ontario" to "British Columbia" and select "Vancouver" as the city). On 6 December 2022, the average price of a litre of gasoline in Vancouver, BC, was 157.8, or Can$1.578.
Tags: Business, Society
Question opened: 2022-12-09; closed: 2023-05-31
Options: Less than Can$1.50, Between Can$1.50 and Can$1.75, inclusive, More than Can$1.75 but less than Can$2.00, Between Can$2.00 and Can$2.25, inclusive, More than Can$2.25
Answer: More than Can$1.75 but less than Can$2.00
Question: What will be the US domestic box office gross for "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" between and including 5 May 2023 and 29 May 2023, according to Box Office Mojo?
"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" is the third movie in the franchise (IMDb). The question will be suspended on 28 May 2023 and the outcome determined using the total of non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for 5-29 May 2023 (Box Office Mojo, see "Domestic Daily"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 5 May 2023.
Tags: Business, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-03-15; closed: 2023-05-28
Options: Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $240 million, inclusive, More than $240 million but less than $280 million, Between $280 million and $320 million, inclusive, More than $320 million but less than $360 million, Between $360 million and $400 million, inclusive, More than $400 million
Answer: Between $280 million and $320 million, inclusive
Question: What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening holiday weekend for The Little Mermaid, according to Box Office Mojo?
The Little Mermaid is a live-action remake of the animated Disney film of the same name from 1989 (IMDb - The Little Mermaid). The question will be suspended on 26 May 2023 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the weekend of 26-29 May 2023 (Box Office Mojo, see "Domestic Weekend"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 26 May 2023, which is Memorial Day weekend.
Tags: Business, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-01-20; closed: 2023-05-27
Options: Less than $50 million, Between $50 million and $100 million, inclusive, More than $100 million but less than $150 million, Between $150 million and $200 million, inclusive, More than $200 million but less than $250 million, $250 million or more
Answer: More than $100 million but less than $150 million
Question: Will the New Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2023 Alberta Legislative Assembly elections?
Alberta voters are scheduled to vote on 29 May 2023 in what polls show is a tight race for control of the legislature amid widespread wildfires in the Canadian province (388Canada, CBC, CBC). If the election date is postponed in a constituency or constituencies, the closing date will be extended to accommodate the delayed dates in case the outcome of the question is dependent on their results.
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-05-12; closed: 2023-05-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) candidate win the 2023 Turkish presidential election?
President Recep Tayyip ﻿Erdoğan of the AKP has announced that he will run for reelection (ABC News, Middle East Institute). Turkey's next presidential election is scheduled for 2023 with the first round of voting to take place on 18 June 2023, and a runoff is scheduled for 2 July 2023 if needed (Turkey Constitution, see Article 101).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-08-26; closed: 2023-05-29
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Which football (soccer) club will be the 2022-23 German Bundesliga champion?
The Bundesliga is the premier football (soccer) league in Germany (Bundesliga). The final match day of the 2022/23 Bundesliga season is scheduled for 24 May 2023 (Deutsche Fussball Liga). The question would close on the official announcement that the season has been cancelled or postponed beyond 31 December 2023.
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2022-09-30; closed: 2023-05-27
Options: Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Freiburg, Hoffenheim, RB Leipzig, Union Berlin, Another team, There will be no 2022-23 Bundesliga champion in 2023
Answer: Bayern Munich
Question: What will be the closing value of the euro to US dollar exchange rate on 26 May 2023?
The euro has gained value versus the US dollar in 2023 (CNBC, Exchange Rates). The question will be suspended on 25 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-03-29; closed: 2023-05-25
Options: Lower than 1.02, Between 1.02 and 1.05, inclusive, Higher than 1.05 but lower than 1.08, Between 1.08 and 1.11, inclusive, Higher than 1.11 but lower than 1.14, 1.14 or higher
Answer: Higher than 1.05 but lower than 1.08
Question: What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 26 May 2023?
Forecasts for the S&P 500 in 2023 portend potential volatility and downside risks, which are complicated by troubles at US banks (Yahoo Finance, US News & World Report, Market Watch AP). The question will be suspended on 25 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED).
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-03-15; closed: 2023-05-25
Options: Less than 3,100, Between 3,100 and 3,400, inclusive, More than 3,400 but less than 3,700, Between 3,700 and 4,000, inclusive, More than 4,000 but less than 4,300, Between 4,300 and 4,600, inclusive, More than 4,600 but less than 4,900, 4,900 or more
Answer: More than 4,000 but less than 4,300
Question: What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 24 May 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?
The question will be suspended on 23 May 2023 and the outcome determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 15 March 2023, Biden's approval rating was 43.7%. The data for 24 May 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 26 May 2023.
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2023-03-22; closed: 2023-05-23
Options: Lower than 39.0%, Between 39.0% and 42.0%, inclusive, Higher than 42.0% but lower than 45.0%, Between 45.0% and 48.0%, inclusive, Higher than 48.0%
Answer: Between 39.0% and 42.0%, inclusive
Question: What will be the annual percentage change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in April 2023?
While inflation has cooled, the Federal Reserve has indicated that more progress is needed before it can stop tightening monetary policy (i.e., raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet) (Federal Reserve, NASDAQ). The question will be suspended on 25 May 2023 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Economic Analysis data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED, click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago"). As of the launch of this question, the annual percentage change in the PCE Price Index was 5.00175 in February 2023.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-04-28; closed: 2023-05-25
Options: Less than 3.0%, Between 3.0% and 3.4%, inclusive, Higher by more than 3.4% but less than 3.8%, Between 3.8% and 4.2%, inclusive, More than 4.2%
Answer: More than 4.2%
Question: Will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P downgrade their long-term credit ratings or outlooks for the United States in 2023?
With a political fight looming over the US debt ceiling, there are concerns that US credit ratings could be downgraded (The Hill, AP). Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are the "Big Three" global credit rating agencies, which assign ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts (Investopedia - Credit Rating). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics). A downgrade to the outlook or a negative watch would count (Investopedia - Negative Watch).
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-01-13; closed: 2023-05-24
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: When will Florida Governor Ron DeSantis register with the FEC to run for US president in 2024?
There is broad speculation that Governor DeSantis will run for president in 2024 (NPR, Politico, BBC). Persons running for federal office in the US must register with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) upon raising or spending more than $5,000 in contributions or expenditures (FEC - Registration, FEC - Candidates).
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2022-12-23; closed: 2023-05-24
Options: Before 1 February 2023, Between 1 February 2023 and 30 April 2023, Between 1 May 2023 and 31 July 2023, Between 1 August 2023 and 31 October 2023, Not before 1 November 2023
Answer: Between 1 May 2023 and 31 July 2023
Question: What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 19 May 2023?
Sanctions on Russian oil, potential increases in Chinese demand, and OPEC+ policy are all impacting prices in the near and intermediate term (NASDAQ, CNBC, CNN). The question will be suspended on 18 May 2023 and the outcome determined using US Energy Information Administration data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED).
Tags: Business, Technology, Non-US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-03-15; closed: 2023-05-18
Options: Less than $55.00 per barrel, Between $55.00 and $70.00 per barrel, inclusive, More than $70.00 but less than $85.00 per barrel, Between $85.00 and $100.00 per barrel, inclusive, More than $100.00 but less than $115.00 per barrel, $115.00 or more
Answer: More than $70.00 but less than $85.00 per barrel
Question: What will be the price of bitcoin on 23 May 2023?
The question will be suspended on 22 May 2023 and the outcome determined using the last price dated 23 May 2023 (PT) as reported by CoinDesk (CoinDesk, set chart to "1M").
Tags: Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2023-03-15; closed: 2023-05-22
Options: Less than $12,000, Between $12,000 and $16,000, inclusive, More than $16,000 but less than $20,000, Between $20,000 and $24,000, inclusive, More than $24,000 but less than $28,000, Between $28,000 and $32,000, inclusive, More than $32,000 but less than $36,000, Between $36,000 and $40,000, inclusive, More than $40,000
Answer: More than $24,000 but less than $28,000
Question: When will Jair Bolsonaro be criminally indicted in Brazil?
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro faces criminal investigations for various matters, including riots by Bolsonaro supporters at various government buildings in Brasília on 8 January 2023 (US News & World Report, BBC [in Portuguese], NPR).
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-01-20; closed: 2023-05-23
Options: Before 20 February 2023, Between 20 February 2023 and 22 March 2023, Between 23 March 2023 and 22 May 2023, Not before 23 May 2023
Answer: Not before 23 May 2023
Question: Will US venture capital (VC) investment in cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology exceed $2 billion in either the fourth quarter of 2022 or first quarter of 2023?
Investments by US venture capital firms in crypto and blockchain technology peaked in the first quarter of 2022 at over $6 billion, but the pace of investment has fallen considerably since (Nonrival, see first chart). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using PitchBook data as reported by Nonrival (PitchBook, Nonrival - Substack).
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2022-12-09; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 19 May 2023?
When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 18 May 2023 and the outcome determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED). For 24 March 2023, the spread was -0.38%.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-03-29; closed: 2023-05-18
Options: -1.00% or lower, Between -1.00% and -0.75%, inclusive, Higher than -0.75% but lower than -0.50%, Between -0.50% and -0.25%, inclusive, Higher than -0.25% but lower than 0.00%, Between 0.00% and 0.25%, inclusive, More than 0.25%
Answer: Higher than -0.75% but lower than -0.50%
Question: In Gonzalez v. Google LLC, will the Supreme Court rule that Section 230 does not bar the plaintiff's non-revenue sharing claims against Google?
Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 (Section 230), which was added as part of the Communications Decency Act of 1996, "provides limited federal immunity to providers and users of interactive computer services" (Congressional Research Service, Cornell - Section 230). Various parties related to Nohemi Gonzalez, who was killed in the 2015 Paris terrorist attacks, sued Google claiming, among other things, that YouTube enabled terrorists to recruit members and spread propaganda (Oyez). The district court and Ninth Circuit both found that Section 230 barred the claims against Google that were not premised on revenue-sharing exercised by the company (Casetext, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2022 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-02-17; closed: 2023-05-18
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone in April 2023?
Eurozone inflation hit the highest level on record according to preliminary data for October 2022, stoked by energy prices and continued fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Deutsche Welle, Euronews, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using the annual rate of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), data used to measure consumer price inflation in the eurozone, as first reported by Eurostat, excluding Flash Estimate data (Eurostat, ECB). Croatia is scheduled to join the Eurozone on 1 January 2023, so the "GEO" segment used for resolution will likely be "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)" (ECB). As of the launch of this question, the annual rate of change for "Euro area - 19 countries (from 2015)" for April 2022 was 7.4%.
Tags: Finance, Society, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-11-04; closed: 2023-05-01
Options: Less than 3.0%, Between 3.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, More than 5.0% but less than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 9.0%, inclusive, More than 9.0% but less than 11.0%, Between 11.0% and 13.0%, inclusive, More than 13.0% but less than 15.0%, 15.0% or more
Answer: Between 7.0% and 9.0%, inclusive
Question: What percentage of venture capital dollars will go to US startups with female-only founders in 2022, according to Crunchbase?
Women-led firms have historically seen a small fraction of venture capital funding (Crunchbase, Harvard Business Review). The outcome will be determined using data published by Crunchbase for the US for 2022, expected in 2023. For 2020, the percentage was 2.4%.
Tags: Business, Finance, Society
Question opened: 2021-09-17; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Less than 2.5%, Between 2.5% and 2.9%, inclusive, More than 2.9% but less than 3.5%, 3.5% or more
Answer: Less than 2.5%
Question: What will be the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for the Emirate of Dubai in April 2023?
Dubai, along with the rest of the world, has had to grapple with inflation (AP). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the Dubai Statistics Center (Dubai Statistics Center - Prices, see "Annual Percentage Change" reports). The figure in the PDF file will be used for resolution. In April 2022, annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index was 4.60% (Annual Percentage Change in Consumer Price Index 2022, see "General Index" row).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-11-25; closed: 2023-05-01
Options: Lower by more than 0.00%, Higher by between 0.00% and 3.00%, inclusive, Higher by more than 3.00% but less than 6.00%, Higher by between 6.00% and 9.00%, inclusive, Higher by more than 9.00%
Answer: Higher by more than 3.00% but less than 6.00%