jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: What will be the closing value of the US dollar/Russian ruble exchange rate on 15 July 2022?
Global sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have pushed the value of the Russian ruble to historic lows (CBS News, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").
Tags: Business, Finance, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-03-04; closed: 2022-07-15
Options: Lower than 75.00, Between 75.00 and 100.00, inclusive, Higher than 100.00 but lower than 125.00, Between 125.00 and 150.00, inclusive, More than 150.00
Answer: Lower than 75.00
Question: What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2022?
After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, China is facing new disruptions to its economy (CNN, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined when the relevant data for 2Q 2022 are first released, scheduled for July 2022.
Tags: Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-11-05; closed: 2022-07-01
Options: Less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%, Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive, More than 7.0%
Answer: Less than 4.0%
Question: Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa cease to be the president of Sri Lanka before 20 July 2022?
After weeks of protests over inflation and food shortages, Sri Lanka Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned in early May while his brother Gotabaya continued on as the country's president (NPR, CNN, Voice of America).
Tags: Society, Economic Policy, Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-05-20; closed: 2022-07-14
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the US producer price index for Internet advertising sales in June 2022?
After years of steady declines, the price of Internet advertising began to rise in the summer of 2020 (FRED, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for "Internet advertising space sales, excluding Internet ads sold by print publishers" (Commodity code 36-5) in June 2022, expected in July 2022 (BLS - PPI Release Schedule). For June 2021, the unadjusted index was 65.3 (BLS PPI Report - June 2021, see page 24). For historical data, visit https://www.bls.gov/ppi/. Under "PPI Databases," select "ONE SCREEN" from "Commodity Data including 'headline' FD-ID indexes." For "1 Select a Group," select "36 Advertising space and time sales." For "2 Select one or more Items," find and select "365 Internet advertising sales, excluding Internet advertising sold by print publishers." For "3 Select Seasonal Adjustment," leave only "Not Seasonally Adjusted" checked, then click "Add to selection," and "Get Data."
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2021-09-03; closed: 2022-07-01
Options: Lower than 60.0, Between 60.0 and 66.0, inclusive, Higher than 66.0 but lower than 72.0, Between 72.0 and 78.0, inclusive, Higher than 78.0 but lower than 84.0, 84.0 or higher
Answer: Between 72.0 and 78.0, inclusive
Question: What will be the annual rate of headline inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in June 2022?
The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for "All items" in July 2022 (BLS). For May 2021, the rate was 5.0%.
Tags: Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-06-18; closed: 2022-07-01
Options: Less than 0.0%, Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive, More than 2.0% but less than 3.0%, Between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive, More than 4.0% but less than 5.0%, 5.0% or more
Answer: 5.0% or more
Question: Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic?
Whether the United States will impose sanctions against China for its actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic is a topic of growing debate (Yahoo, Axios, Bloomberg). For the purposes of this question, sanctions could be on an individual who is a citizen or national of the People's Republic of China or an entity organized under the laws of the People's Republic of China (e.g., CNN, Reuters, AP).
Tags: Economic Policy, Foreign Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-06-24; closed: 2022-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the FAO Food Price Index for June 2022?
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs (Economist, Axios, Slate). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in July 2022, typically released in the first week of the month (FAO, see table near bottom of page).
Tags: Society, Health, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-01-07; closed: 2022-07-01
Options: Less than 120.0, Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive, More than 130.0 but less than 140.0, Between 140.0 and 150.0, inclusive, More than 150.0
Answer: More than 150.0
Question: Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev either flee Kazakhstan or cease to be its president before 7 July 2022?
Major riots broke out in Kazakhstan after the government removed fuel subsidies (AP, BBC, The Hill). Whether or not Tokayev has fled Kazakhstan will be determined using credible open source media reporting.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-01-07; closed: 2022-07-07
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 4 July 2022?
The price of gasoline in the US hit all-time highs in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Car and Driver, CBS News). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for "Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices" (EIA, see table).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-03-18; closed: 2022-07-04
Options: Less than 3.000, Between 3.000 and 3.400, inclusive, More than 3.400 but less than 3.800, Between 3.800 and 4.200, inclusive, More than 4.200 but less than 4.600, Between 4.600 and 5.000, inclusive, More than 5.000
Answer: Between 4.600 and 5.000, inclusive
Question: When will the number of fully vaccinated people with a booster dose for COVID-19 in the US reach or exceed 165 million?
There's a renewed push in the US to get COVID-19 vaccine booster shots in as many vaccinated people as possible (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CDC (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations, click the "Booster Doses***" title on the table). For historical data, visit https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccinations-in-the-United-States-Jurisdi/unsk-b7fc, click "Export," and select your file preference. See "US" for "Location," and booster doses are labeled "Additional_Doses" in the file. As of the launch of this question, the number of fully vaccinated people with a booster dose for COVID-19 as of 1 December 2021 was 41,933,410.  If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-12-23; closed: 2022-07-01
Options: Before 15 February 2022, Between 15 February 2022 and 31 March 2022, Between 1 April 2022 and 15 May 2022, Between 16 May 2022 and 30 June 2022, Not before 1 July 2022
Answer: Not before 1 July 2022
Question: Will Tesla produce at least 330,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2022?
The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Tesla in its Production and Delivery press release for the second quarter of 2022, expected in early July 2022 (Tesla).
Tags: Open
Question opened: 2022-03-15; closed: 2022-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: As of 1 July 2022, will France and/or Germany require the wearing of face masks in indoor public places?
Denmark became the first EU member state to eliminate all of its COVID-19 restrictions, and other states are considering the future of their own measures, including mandatory masking (CNN, France 24, The Local). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by "Re-open EU" for France and Germany in July 2022 (Re-open EU). For each country, see "General measures" under "CORONAVIRUS MEASURES" (Re-open EU - France General measures, Re-open EU - Germany General measures). If that site ceases to provide updated information, general open-source reporting will be used for resolution. Local measures within either country would be immaterial, and a lifting of masking requirements with specific exceptions (e.g., medical facilities, homes for the elderly) would count.
Tags: Society, Health, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-02-25; closed: 2022-07-01
Options: Yes, France only, Yes, Germany only, Yes, both France and Germany, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 29 October 2021 and 30 June 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?
In May 2021, Lithuania announced it would leave the China-CEEC group, turning the "17+1" initiative into "16+1" (Taipei Times, China Daily). Current members as of the question's launch are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia (Politico.eu).
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-10-29; closed: 2022-07-01
Options: 0, 1 or 2, 3 or 4, 5 or more
Answer: 0
Question: When will the Scottish government officially request discussions on or agreement to a Section 30 order from the UK government that would enable the Scottish government to call a new independence referendum?
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to push for a new referendum on Scottish independence (Sky News, House of Commons Library, Scottish Devolution: Section 30 Orders). A request from the Scottish First Minister (e.g., 2017 Sturgeon Letter to Prime Minister May) or a mandate for discussions from the Scottish parliament (e.g., Scottish Parliament's "Scotland's Choice" Motion) would count.
Tags: Society, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-08-27; closed: 2022-06-28
Options: Before 1 January 2022, Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022, Between 1 July 2022 and 31 December 2022, Not before 1 January 2023
Answer: Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022
Question: Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 July 2022?
Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 (US News & World Report, BBC, ABC News). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-10-20; closed: 2022-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 July 2022, will the CPTPP Commission decide to commence the accession process for the People's Republic of China (PRC) and/or Taiwan?
Taiwan, under the name of "The Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu," and the PRC each recently requested accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) (Bloomberg, Brookings Institute, Diplomat). The CPTPP Commission decided on 2 June 2021 to commence the accession process for the United Kingdom (Institute for Government, Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Global Affairs Canada). Whether the Commission subsequently reverses its own decision is immaterial.
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-10-08; closed: 2022-07-01
Options: Yes, but only for the PRC, Yes, but only for Taiwan, Yes, for both, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 June 2022?
The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Tags: Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-06-17; closed: 2022-06-30
Options: Less than 3,800, Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive, More than 4,100 but less than 4,400, Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive, More than 4,700 but less than 5,000, 5,000 or more
Answer: Less than 3,800
Question: Which publicly traded US company will have the highest end-of-day market capitalization as of 30 June 2022?
The outcome will be determined using "Market Cap" data as reported by companiesmarketcap.com at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 June 2022 (CompaniesMarketCap).
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2021-11-12; closed: 2022-06-30
Options: Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Another company
Answer: Apple
Question: What will be the closing value of the Hang Seng Index on 30 June 2022?
Hong Kong's economy is being closely watched as its relationship with China continues to evolve (Al Jazeera, Reuters). The outcome will be determined using data reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-11-12; closed: 2022-06-30
Options: Less than 20,000, Between 20,000 and 23,000, inclusive, More than 23,000 but less than 26,000, Between 26,000 and 29,000, inclusive, More than 29,000 but less than 32,000, 32,000 or more
Answer: Between 20,000 and 23,000, inclusive
Question: What will be the US domestic auto inventory as of May 2022?
Chip shortages and supply constraints have pushed domestic auto inventories to historic lows (CNBC, Car and Driver). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using US Bureau of Economic Analysis data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). In May 2019, the total domestic auto inventory was 644.8 (thousands).
Tags: Business, Technology, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-10-22; closed: 2022-06-01
Options: Fewer than 100.0 (thousands), Between 100.0 (thousands) and 300.0 (thousands), inclusive, More than 300.0 (thousands) but fewer than 500.0 (thousands), Between 500.0 (thousands) and 700.0 (thousands), inclusive, More than 700.0 (thousands)
Answer: Fewer than 100.0 (thousands)
Question: Before 9 July 2022, will the Israeli Knesset vote to dissolve itself?
Continued political turmoil in Israel has raised the prospect of an early dissolution of the Knesset, the Israeli parliament (Axios, Times of Israel, Israeli Constitution, see Section 34).
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-04-29; closed: 2022-06-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Between 4 February 2022 and 31 December 2022, will a country formally progress in the NATO accession process?
Amid high tensions with Ukraine and the West, Vladimir Putin has demanded that NATO freeze its expansion further into Eastern Europe (NPR, IntelliNews, Council on Foreign Relations). For the purposes of this question, formal progression in the NATO accession process consists of a country 1) reaching a new stage of any of the seven stages listed under the accession process section (NATO - Enlargement), 2) receiving an invitation to participate in a Membership Action Plan (NATO - Membership Action Plan), or 3) entering into “Intensified Dialogue” (NATO - Enlargement, see "Aspirant countries").
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-02-04; closed: 2022-06-29
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Which NHL team will win the 2022 Stanley Cup Final?
The 2022 Stanley Cup Final is scheduled to conclude no later than 30 June 2022 (Sportsnaut, NHL).
Tags: Business, Sports
Question opened: 2021-11-05; closed: 2022-06-27
Options: Boston Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes, Colorado Avalanche, Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers, Minnesota Wild, New York Rangers, St. Louis Blues, Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vegas Golden Knights, Washington Capitals, Another team
Answer: Colorado Avalanche
Question: Will federal legislation mandating or enabling enhanced background checks for gun purchasers under the age of 21 in the US become law before 8 November 2022?
In the wake of several mass shootings in the US, a bipartisan group of senators announced an agreement on various gun control and mental health policy changes for consideration in Congress (Senate.gov - John Cornyn, AP, Guardian). For the purposes of this question, "enhanced" means anything to increase scrutiny of a prospective gun purchaser, though it need not cover the purchase of every type of gun.
Tags: Society, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-06-17; closed: 2022-06-25
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: In Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, will the Supreme Court explicitly overrule Roe v. Wade?
The Supreme Court is reviewing what could be the biggest abortion case since its decision in Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992 (Oyez, SCOTUSblog, C-SPAN). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
Tags: Society, Health, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-12-03; closed: 2022-06-24
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: In Gallup's 2022 Confidence in Institutions survey, what percentage of respondents will say they have either a "Great deal" or "Quite a lot" of confidence in the US Supreme Court?
For decades, polling firm Gallup has taken annual surveys of Americans about their confidence in American institutions, including the Supreme Court (Gallup - Confidence in Institutions, Gallup - 2021 Confidence in Institutions). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined using data for the same poll, expected to be conducted in June 2022 and released thereafter. Other Gallup polling regarding the Supreme Court would be immaterial. For 2021, 36% of respondents said they have either a "Great deal" or "Quite a lot" of confidence in the US Supreme Court.
Tags: Society, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-05-13; closed: 2022-06-23
Options: Less than 29%, Between 29% and 33%, inclusive, More than 33% but less than 39%, Between 39% and 43%, inclusive, More than 43%
Answer: Less than 29%
Question: In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, will the Supreme Court rule that New York State's denial of applications for concealed-carry licenses for self-defense violated the Second Amendment?
Two New York State citizens applied for firearm concealed-carry licenses for self-defense, but were denied because they failed to show a "proper cause" for obtaining the license (Oyez). Two men sued, claiming that the denial of licenses violated the Second Amendment (SCOTUSblog). They lost at the trial and appellate courts, and appealed to the US Supreme Court (Casetext, Supreme Court). A ruling in favor of any petitioner (New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc., Robert Nash, or Brandon Koch) would count. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Oral arguments are scheduled for 3 November 2021 (Supreme Court - November Argument Calendar).
Tags: Society, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-09-30; closed: 2022-06-23
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 23 June 2022, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?
Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his agenda are facing a number of challenges, including Brexit, COVID-19, and scandals (Economist, Axios, France 24, Guardian).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-12-23; closed: 2022-06-23
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 12 billion worldwide?
With new variants of COVID-19, there is a renewed emphasis on broadening vaccination efforts worldwide (Economist). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Financial Times (Financial Times). Scroll to the section "Vaccination doses administered..." For location enter "World," then click the boxes "Raw numbers," "Cumulative," and "Total doses." The value and date will appear when hovering over the "World" line in the resulting graphic (Financial Times, parameters are set with the link).
Tags: Technology, Health
Question opened: 2021-11-12; closed: 2022-06-20
Options: Before 1 April 2022, Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022, Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022, Between 1 August 2022 and 30 September 2022, Not before 1 October 2022
Answer: Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022
Question: Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Colombia?
With President Iván Duque Márquez term limited, the race to be the next president of Colombia is wide open (Economist, Americas Quarterly, Bloomberg). The first round of Colombia's next presidential election is scheduled for 29 May 2022, with a runoff scheduled for 19 June 2022, if needed.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-12-03; closed: 2022-06-19
Options: Sergio Fajardo, Juan Manuel Galán, Alejandro Gaviria, Federico Gutiérrez, Rodolfo Hernández, Gustavo Petro, Another candidate
Answer: Gustavo Petro
Question: How many seats will the Ensemble Citoyens (Citizens Together) alliance win in the next French National Assembly elections?
In November 2021, pro-Macron political groups in France formed Ensemble Citoyens (French for "Citizens Together"), a political alliance created in the run-up to 2022 presidential and legislative elections (Euractive, Guardian, French Ministry of the Interior [in French]. As of 6 May 2022, the seven member parties of Ensemble Citoyens were La République En Marche!, Mouvement Democrate, Agir, Horizons, Territoires de Progres, En Commun!, and Parti Radical (Ensemble Citoyens [in French]). The next two-round legislative elections are scheduled for 12 June 2022 and 19 June 2022 (French Ministry of the Interior [in French]).
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-05-06; closed: 2022-06-19
Options: Fewer than 289, Between 289 and 321, Between 322 and 353, Between 354 and 385, More than 385
Answer: Fewer than 289
Question: Before 1 September 2022, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?
Efforts within the WTO to agree on patent waivers for COVID-19 vaccines stalled in 2021 (Economist, US News & World Report, CNN). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states (WTO, SDG Knowledge Hub).
Tags: Business, Technology, Health, US Politics, Non-US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-12-30; closed: 2022-06-17
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 5.00% before 1 October 2022?
Interest rate volatility has subsided since the early days of the pandemic, but inflation and other factors could lead to new volatility (Economist, MarketWatch). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread" (FRED). For 1 December 2021, the spread was 3.58%.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-12-17; closed: 2022-06-16
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes