jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?
As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load (CDC). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table “Compare,” set to "States," under "POSITIVE TEST RATE." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-12-23; closed: 2021-03-01
Options: 8 or fewer, Between 9 and 15, Between 16 and 22, Between 23 and 29, 30 or more
Answer: 8 or fewer
Question: Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?
Vietnam's next National Party Congress is scheduled for January 2021, at which the next secretary-general of the party is meant to be appointed (Economist, Vietnam Times). Rumors have suggested some of the top leadership positions could be consolidated (Diplomat).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-11-27; closed: 2021-03-01
Options: Nguyễn Thị Kim Ngân, Nguyễn Xuân Phúc, Trần Quốc Vượng, Someone else, A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021
Answer: A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021
Question: Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?
A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over continued escalation of tensions between the two neighbors (BBC, Washington Post, Fox News, Wall Street Journal). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one or more fatalities of the forces-the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement officials-of either side. For the purposes of this question, "at sea" means any territorial or international waters and the airspace above them.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2020-09-25; closed: 2021-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?
In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC (Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC (Newsweek).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2020-11-09; closed: 2021-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?
In recent years, there has been speculation that China would declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea (Economist, National Interest, CNN). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see: Defense.info, Economist, Inquirer.net.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2020-11-09; closed: 2021-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 28 February 2021, according to the CDC?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as recorded by the CDC (updated daily) under “Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses” at approximately 10:00PM ET on 28 February 2021 (CDC).
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-02-03; closed: 2021-02-28
Options: Fewer than 50,000,000, Between 50,000,000 and 53,000,000, inclusive, More than 53,000,000 but fewer than 56,000,000, Between 56,000,000 and 59,000,000, inclusive, More than 59,000,000 but fewer than 62,000,000, Between 62,000,000 and 65,000,000, inclusive, More than 65,000,000
Answer: Fewer than 50,000,000
Question: Will the United Arab Emirates (UAE) be ranked higher than 21st in the Global Food Security Index Rankings for 2020?
Question opened: 2020-05-21; closed: 2021-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many total passengers will Australian airline Qantas carry in the second half of 2020?
Like most airlines around the world, Qantas Airways Limited (Qantas) faces uncertainty amid the COVID-19 pandemic (Australian Securities Exchange, Airline Ratings). The question will suspend on 31 December 2020 and resolve when Qantas releases its half-year report for 1 July 2020 to 31 December 2020, usually in February. For the period of July 2019 to December 2019, Qantas Airways Limited reported 28,876,000 passengers carried (Qantas).
Tags: Business, Society, Health
Question opened: 2020-03-27; closed: 2021-01-01
Options: Less than 16 million, Between 16 million and 20 million, inclusive, More than 20 million but less than 24 million, Between 24 million and 28 million, inclusive, More than 28 million
Answer: Less than 16 million
Question: How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union in 2020?
The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations (Smart Energy, Reuters). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 31 December 2020 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory for all of 2020, via the graph "Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2020)" when the filter for "Charger type" is set to "Fast (>22kW)" and the filters at the top of the page are set to "European Union" and "2020".This question is the shorter-term companion of question #1634. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
Tags: Business, Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2020-04-02; closed: 2020-12-31
Options: Less than 18,000, Between 18,000 and 22,000, inclusive, More than 22,000 but less than 26,000, Between 26,000 and 30,000, inclusive, More than 30,000
Answer: More than 22,000 but less than 26,000
Question: What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021?
Latin American e-commerce company Mercado Libre has had a major surge in business during the COVID-19 pandemic (eMarketer). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Tags: Business, Technology, Health
Question opened: 2020-12-31; closed: 2021-02-15
Options: Less than $1,600.00, Between $1,600.00 and $1,800.00, inclusive, More than $1,800.00 but less than $2,000.00, Between $2,000.00 and $2,200.00, inclusive, More than $2,200.00
Answer: More than $1,800.00 but less than $2,000.00
Question: Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?
Russia and China have engaged in joint naval exercises in the past, both bilaterally and with other nations (Diplomat, CNN). Both Russia and the PRC conducting joint naval exercises with one or more other navies would also count.
Tags: Foreign Policy
Question opened: 2020-11-09; closed: 2021-02-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?
Former King Juan Carlos I of Spain has reportedly left Spain in light of recent controversies, while former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont has continued living abroad in exile following the 2017 independence referendum that the Spanish government declared to be illegal (BBC, CatalanNews, AP).
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-08-14; closed: 2021-02-14
Options: Yes, only Juan Carlos I, Yes, only Carles Puigdemont, Yes, both, No
Answer: No
Question: How many U.S. senators will vote to convict former President Donald Trump of incitement of insurrection?
On 13 January 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach President Trump for incitement of insurrection in the wake of the 6 January 2021 storming of the Capitol Building (NPR, H.Res.24). The Senate trial began on 9 February 2021 (Time, BBC). If the Senate does not vote on the charge before 1 May 2021, the question will close "Fewer than 51."
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2021-02-11; closed: 2021-02-13
Options: Fewer than 51, Between 51 and 55, Between 56 and 61, Between 62 and 66, 67 or more
Answer: Between 56 and 61
Question: Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 1 September 2021?
After the resignation of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, how the next Italian government will be formed -- and how Italy will continue to weather the COVID-19 crisis -- remains to be seen (Economist, BBC, thelocal.it). Neither a reappointment of Conte nor the appointment of a caretaker prime minister would count.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-01-29; closed: 2021-02-13
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil?
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a benchmark price for oil in the U.S., while Brent is a benchmark price for oil from the North Sea (Investopedia). The spread, or difference, between the price of the two is an important metric in energy markets (Oil Price, CME Group). The outcome will be determined using futures prices as provided by Bloomberg (WTI: Bloomberg - WTI, Brent: Bloomberg - Brent).
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-11-13; closed: 2021-02-12
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?
Super Bowl LV (55) is scheduled for Sunday 7 February in Tampa, FL (NFL).
Tags: Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2021-01-08; closed: 2021-02-08
Options: The AFC Champion, The NFC Champion, No Super Bowl will be played before 8 March 2021
Answer: The NFC Champion
Question: When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region?
Europe’s “second wave” of COVID-19 has increased concerns regarding the impact of the disease on the continent (Economist, Guardian). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO COVID-19 Dashboard).
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-11-09; closed: 2021-02-05
Options: Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021
Answer: Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021
Question: Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?
Russia and the U.S. signed the current "New START" treaty in 2010, which was intended to further reduce stockpiles of nuclear weapons in each country (Moscow Times). The treaty is set to expire on 5 February 2021 unless it is extended for up to five years by mutual agreement or superseded by another agreement (Federation of American Scientists, Newsweek).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-01-08; closed: 2021-02-03
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the Americas Region as of 1 February 2021?
Concern regarding the COVID-19 situation in the Americas has increased (Wall Street Journal, CNN). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO).
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-12-31; closed: 2021-02-01
Options: Fewer than 42,000,000, Between 42,000,000 and 44,000,000, inclusive, More than 44,000,000 but fewer than 46,000,000, Between 46,000,000 and 48,000,000, inclusive, More than 48,000,000
Answer: More than 44,000,000 but fewer than 46,000,000
Question: How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 February 2021?
The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO).
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-12-31; closed: 2021-02-01
Options: Fewer than 3,000,000, Between 3,000,000 and 3,500,000, inclusive, More than 3,500,000 but fewer than 4,000,000, Between 4,000,000 and 4,500,000, inclusive, More than 4,500,000
Answer: More than 3,500,000 but fewer than 4,000,000
Question: Will there be 12 or more Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy filings in 2020?
Question opened: 2020-05-21; closed: 2021-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2020?
Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past (Reuters, Shine.cn, CNBC, Inside EVs). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million (Caam.org [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics, Caam.org.cn [in Chinese], Caam.org.cn [in English], China Daily).This question is the shorter-term companion of question #1698. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
Tags: Business, Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2020-07-10; closed: 2020-12-31
Options: Fewer than 800,000, Between 800,000 and 950,000, inclusive, More than 950,000 but less than 1,100,000, Between 1,100,000 and 1,250,000, inclusive, More than 1,250,000
Answer: More than 1,250,000
Question: At close of business on 27 January 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 December 2020?
The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its January meeting is scheduled for 26-27 January 2021.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2020-09-18; closed: 2021-01-27
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: In its January 2021 World Economic Outlook report, by how much will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimate the global economy grew in 2020?
In its January 2020 report, the IMF projected global growth to rise 3.3 percent in 2020 (IMF). The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has raised questions regarding global economic growth in 2020 and beyond (Reuters, ABC News, NY Times). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2020 and the outcome will be determined using the IMF's estimate for 2020 in its World Economic Outlook report scheduled to be published in January 2021 (IMF).
Tags: Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-03-06; closed: 2021-01-01
Options: Less than 1.5%, Between 1.5% and 2.0%, inclusive, Between 2.1% and 2.6%, inclusive, Between 2.7% and 3.0%, inclusive, More than 3.0%
Answer: Less than 1.5%
Question: Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 24 January 2021?
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte entered 2020 after a politically tumultuous year (Guardian, NY Times, CNN). Any reappointment of Conte would not count.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-01-24; closed: 2021-01-24
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the UAE’s Customer Happiness Index be higher for 2020 as compared to 2019?
Question opened: 2020-05-21; closed: 2021-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 21 January 2021, will the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) enter into a consent order that would allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to exit conservatorship?
The Trump administration is exploring ways to allow mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to leave federal conservatorship, which was imposed in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis (FHFA, Wall Street Journal, Housing Wire, Bloomberg). Democrats are pushing back on the plan (House Financial Services Committee, Reuters). The date that Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mack would actually leave conservatorship is immaterial. A consent order would count so long as it provides for an exit to occur unless the FHFA takes further action.
Tags: Business, Finance, US Policy
Question opened: 2020-12-09; closed: 2021-01-21
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will Donald Trump cease to be president of the United States?
Question opened: 2019-09-11; closed: 2021-01-20
Options: Before Inauguration Day 2021, On Inauguration Day 2021, After Inauguration Day 2021
Answer: On Inauguration Day 2021
Question: For any month between and including October 2019 and December 2020, will the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone reach or exceed 2.0%?
As the European Central Bank (ECB) continues its programs of quantitative easing and negative interest rates in the face of recession fears, there are concerns that the ECB will not be able to return to its inflation target of "below, but close to, 2% over the medium term" (MarketWatch, AP, Financial Times, ECB). The outcome will be determined based on Eurostat data for "Euro area (19 countries)" (Eurostat).
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2019-10-25; closed: 2021-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?
The U.S. government imposed a "No Sail Order" on cruise ships in March 2020, which has been repeatedly extended (CDC, CNBC). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.
Tags: Business, Health
Question opened: 2020-07-24; closed: 2021-01-16
Options: Before 2 October 2020, Between 2 October 2020 and 23 November 2020, Between 24 November 2020 and 15 January 2021, Not before 16 January 2021
Answer: Not before 16 January 2021
Question: What will U.S. holiday season retail sales be for 2020 relative to the 2019 holiday season?
U.S. retail sales have had dramatic swings during the COVID-19 pandemic, placing the fate of retailers' all-important holiday season in flux (Business Wire, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted "Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas" data from the U.S. Census Bureau for November and December 2020 relative to the same period in 2019, expected to be released in January 2021 (Census.gov). To retrieve the data go to https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html and under the "Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report" section, select "Time Series/Trend Charts: Create your own customizable time series." Do the following in each of the five options: (1) select "Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services," (2) set Start at 2019 and End at 2020, (3) select "44W72: Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas," (4) select "Sales - Monthly," and (5) select "U.S. Total" and check off only "Seasonally Adjusted."  For November and December 2019, the Bureau reported combined sales of 754,030 [millions of dollars].
Tags: Business, Health, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-10-23; closed: 2021-01-01
Options: Lower by more than 2.5%, Lower by between 0.0% and 2.5%, inclusive, Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%, Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive, Higher by more than 5.0%
Answer: Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive
Question: Before 21 January 2021, will the House of Representatives, pursuant to the 12th Amendment, vote to choose a president of the United States?
Per the 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, the House of Representatives votes for the next president of the United States with one vote per state in the event that the electoral college fails to select a president (Cornell (Amendment XII)). The question would close upon the counting of electoral votes by a joint session of Congress designating a winner.
Tags: Elections and Referenda, US Policy
Question opened: 2020-10-15; closed: 2021-01-07
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will OPEC+ decide to do with regard to oil production at its next meeting?
At the 12th OPEC+ (or OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, ONOMM) in December 2020, participating countries decided to adjust production upward by 0.5 million barrels a day (reducing agreed-to output cuts from 7.7 mb/d to 7.2 mb/d) beginning in January 2021 (OPEC, Economist, Al Jazeera, Reuters). The next OPEC+ is expected to be held in January 2021.
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-12-11; closed: 2021-01-05
Options: Adjust production upward, No decision to adjust production, Adjust production downward, The next OPEC+ will not be held before 1 February 2021
Answer: Adjust production upward
Question: How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 11 January 2021?
The Rt is "the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person" (Rt.live). The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 11 January 2021 at https://rt.live. As of 18 August 2020, 20 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-08-18; closed: 2021-01-11
Options: 7 or fewer, Between 8 and 12, Between 13 and 17, Between 18 and 22, 23 or more
Answer: 23 or more
Question: Which party will win control of the U.S. Congress in the 2020 elections?
In addition to the presidential election, control of Congress is also being watched closely (Roll Call). If control of a chamber is dependent upon a run-off or a recount, the question will remain suspended as scheduled and resolve when the outcome is known.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-03-06; closed: 2020-11-03
Options: Democrats will control the House and Senate, Democrats will control the House, Republicans the Senate, Republicans will control the House, Democrats the Senate, Republicans will control the House and Senate
Answer: Democrats will control the House and Senate
Question: Who will win the U.S. Senate election for Georgia (Class II seat) in 2020?
While Republicans control the U.S. Senate going into the 2020 elections, the GOP is defending 23 seats while Democrats are defending only 12 this November (270 to Win, The Hill). The incumbent for this seat is Sen. David Perdue.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-08-21; closed: 2021-01-05
Options: The Democratic Party candidate, The Republican Party candidate, Someone else
Answer: The Democratic Party candidate
Question: Who will win Georgia's special election runoff for the U.S. Senate (Class III seat)?
Because no candidate won a majority of votes in Georgia's 2020 special election for the U.S. Senate, a runoff has been scheduled for 5 January 2021 that could decide control of the Senate (CNN, WTOC).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-11-13; closed: 2021-01-05
Options: Kelly Loeffler (R), Raphael Warnock (D)
Answer: Raphael Warnock (D)
Question: How many homicides will there be in Chicago, IL, in 2020?
While violent crime fell significantly in many parts of the U.S. as stay-at-home orders related to COVID-19 were implemented, the city of Chicago has had no reprieve (France24, Newsweek). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the Chicago Tribune (Chicago Tribune).
Tags: Society, Health
Question opened: 2020-07-31; closed: 2021-01-01
Options: Fewer than 676, Between 676 and 735, Between 736 and 795, More than 795
Answer: Between 736 and 795