jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Before 13 February 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state?
Regional tensions involving Iran continue (Reuters, Washington Post, BBC). The GCC is a group of six Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf (GCC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality for the national military or law enforcement forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-08-13; closed: 2022-02-13
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the Government of Ontario cease to require people to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination to use indoor areas of restaurants?
The Canadian province of Ontario began requiring proof of vaccination in late September to address a rise in cases (Ontario.ca, CBC, CTV News). Limited exceptions to the requirement (e.g., use a washroom, place an order) are immaterial.
Tags: Business, Technology, Health, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-10-08; closed: 2022-02-12
Options: Before 19 November 2021, Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Between 1 January 2022 and 11 February 2022, Not before 12 February 2022
Answer: Not before 12 February 2022
Question: Will the US Truck Tonnage Index reach or exceed 120.0 before 1 January 2022?
The truck tonnage index measures gross tonnage of freight moved by motor carriers in the US (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as first reported by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). If the question is still open after November 2021 figures are reported, the question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined once figures are reported for December 2021, expected in January 2022. Revisions would be immaterial.
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-06-25; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?
On 1 February 2021, the military (aka "Defence Services") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution (Reuters, BBC, Myanmar Times.) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services "shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary" (Myanmar Constitution).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-02-12; closed: 2022-02-05
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How much cash on hand will the following *three Donald Trump-affiliated political action committees (PACs) have combined as of 31 December 2021?
Make America Great Again PAC (FEC.gov - Make America Great Again PAC, Mid-year Report 2021)
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda, By midyear 2021, former President Trump's political groups had over $102 million in cash on hand (Politico, ABC News, donaldjtrump.com). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Federal Election Commission for the second half of 2021, expected in early 2022. For the purposes of this question, the three relevant Trump-affiliated PACs are:, Save America (FEC.gov - Save America, Mid-year Report 2021), Make America Great Again Action Inc (FEC.gov - Make America Great Again Action Inc, Mid-year Report 2021)
Question opened: 2021-09-10; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Less than $100 million, Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive, More than $150 million but less than $200 million, $200 million or more
Answer: Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive
Question: Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022?
The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a "hard border" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (Sky News, UK in a Changing Europe, House of Commons Library). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Section 1 or Section 4 of Annex 7 of the Protocol (Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland, see ANNEX 7).
Tags: Economic Policy, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-08-20; closed: 2022-02-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 February 2022, will the Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA) announce that all teaching and learning at Dubai private schools will cease to be face-to-face only?
In August 2021, KHDA announced that “[f]rom October 3rd 2021, all teaching and learning at Dubai private schools will be face-to-face only. After this date, students who wish to continue with distance learning must provide a medical certificate issued by Dubai Health Authority. Class groups or grade/year levels may temporarily switch to distance learning if positive cases of Covid-19 are detected” (KHDA). An announcement about a temporary change would count.
Tags: Technology, Health
Question opened: 2021-09-24; closed: 2022-02-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many seats in the Assembly of the Republic will the Socialist Party win in the next Portuguese parliamentary election?
The next Portuguese parliamentary election is scheduled for 30 January 2022 (EU Reporter, Politico.eu, Politico.eu - Poll of Polls). The Socialist Party won 108 seats in the 2019 Portuguese parliamentary election (Assembly of the Republic).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-12-10; closed: 2022-01-30
Options: Fewer than 96, Between 96 and 105, Between 106 and 115, More than 115
Answer: More than 115
Question: Which NFL team will win the NFC Championship?
The NFC Championship game is scheduled for 30 January 2022 (NFL).
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2021-11-19; closed: 2022-01-30
Options: Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Another team
Answer: Los Angeles Rams
Question: Which NFL team will win the AFC Championship?
The AFC Championship game is scheduled for 30 January 2022 (NFL).
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2021-11-19; closed: 2022-01-30
Options: Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, Pittsburg Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Another team
Answer: Another team
Question: At close of business on 26 January 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 15 December 2021?
The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its January meeting is scheduled for 25-26 January 2022.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2021-09-24; closed: 2022-01-26
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: When will the Federal Reserve announce it will conclude its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?
On 3 November 2021, the Federal Reserve announced it will taper its monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities begun early in the pandemic (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the FOMC (Federal Reserve). In its 3 November statement, the FOMC stated that "the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook" (Federal Reserve - November 2021 Statement). The date the bond buying would conclude is immaterial, as the question would close upon the announcement that the Committee has decided it will conclude the asset purchase program (e.g., 2014 Federal Reserve - October 2014 Statement). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo operations would be immaterial (NY Fed).
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-11-12; closed: 2022-01-26
Options: Before 4 May 2022, Between 4 May 2022 and 26 July 2022, Between 27 July 2022 and 1 November 2022, Between 2 November 2022 and 14 December 2022, Not before 15 December 2022
Answer: Before 4 May 2022
Question: Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?
The BRI was launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping (Council on Foreign Relations, Chatham House, Brookings Institution, Diplomat). As of the launch of this question, at least 139 countries have signed a BRI memorandum of understanding (Belt and Road Portal [in Mandarin], Council on Foreign Relations). Signings by subnational governments would not count (e.g., France 24).
Tags: Business, Finance, Foreign Policy
Question opened: 2021-11-19; closed: 2022-01-21
Options: 0, 1 or 2, 3 or 4, 5 or 6, 7 or more
Answer: 7 or more
Question: What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?
China is looking to advance the internationalization of the renminbi (Reuters, Bloomberg). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data for December 2021 reported by SWIFT in its RMB Tracker monthly report when first released, expected in January 2022 (SWIFT). The relevant data can be found in the report's graph titled "RMB's share as a global payments currency." In its March 2021 report, SWIFT reported the RMB's February 2021 share as a global payments currency at 2.20% (SWIFT - March 2021 Report).
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Policy, Foreign Policy
Question opened: 2021-04-09; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Less than 2.00%, Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive, More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%, 3.00% or more
Answer: More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%
Question: When will the 14-day average of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California next reach or exceed 12,000?
COVID-19 hospitalizations have been increasing in California with the advent of new variants (Guardian, KTLA). The data can be found under the plot titled "COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California" with the "Hospitalized" option selected (COVID19.ca.gov). The 14-day average, which can be accessed by hovering over the plot, was 3,906.6 on 3 August 2021.
Tags: Technology, Health, US Politics
Question opened: 2021-08-06; closed: 2022-01-18
Options: Before 15 September 2021, Between 15 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 15 December 2021, Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022, Not before 1 February 2022
Answer: Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022
Question: How many New York City eviction filings will be reported for 2021?
New York City is closely watching the status of eviction moratoriums that were enacted by the federal government and the state of New York during the coronavirus pandemic but are set to expire soon (NY Times, AP, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data from the Eviction Lab as reported on 17 January 2022 (Eviction Lab). The relevant data can be retrieved by scrolling down to the row with "New York" under the "Site" column, downloading the corresponding CSV file and, in that file, sorting by weeks, summing the values under the "filings_2020" column for weeks 53 through 104. In 2020 (defined as weeks 1 through 52), there were a total of 74,345 eviction filings as of the launch of this question.
Tags: Business, Society, Health, Economic Policy, US Politics
Question opened: 2021-07-02; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Fewer than 60,000, Between 60,000 and 80,000, inclusive, More than 80,000 but fewer than 120,000, Between 120,000 and 240,000, inclusive, More than 240,000
Answer: Fewer than 60,000
Question: Will the median price of a house in New Zealand exceed NZ$870,000 in December 2021, according to REINZ?
Skyrocketing housing prices in New Zealand are raising concerns about an asset bubble (Guardian, Newshub). The outcome will be determined using the national monthly median house price data for December 2021 as first reported by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), expected in mid-January 2022 (REINZ). Revisions to the data later would be immaterial.
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-07-02; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2021 relative to the 2020 holiday season?
A reopening economy points to rising consumer spending and retail sales in 2021 (CNBC, RetailWire). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted "Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas" data from the US Census Bureau for November and December 2021 relative to the same period in 2020, expected to be released in January 2022 (Census.gov). To retrieve the data, under the "Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report" section, select "Time Series/Trend Charts: Create your own customizable time series." Do the following in each of the five options: (1) select "Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services," (2) set Start at 2020 and End at 2021, (3) select "44W72: Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas," (4) select "Sales - Monthly," (5) select "U.S. Total," and leave only "Seasonally Adjusted" checked. For November and December 2020, the Bureau reported combined sales of 776,335 (millions of dollars).
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-06-11; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: The same or lower for 2021, Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%, Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive, Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%, Higher by 7.5% or more
Answer: Higher by 7.5% or more
Question: Before 13 January 2022, will H.R.5376, also known as the Build Back Better Act, become law?
On 19 November 2022, the House of Representatives passed H.R.5376, also known as the Build Back Better Act, that includes many high priority measures for the Biden administration (Economist, CBS News, CNBC, Congress.gov). An amended H.R.5376 becoming law would count.
Tags: Finance, Technology, Environment, Economic Policy, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-11-26; closed: 2022-01-13
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many business applications will be made in the US in 2021?
Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, a record number of business applications were made in 2020 (CBS News, Bloomberg, Economic Innovation Group). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (Census Bureau, Census Bureau - Business Formation Statistics Methodology).
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-09-03; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Fewer than 4.8 million, Between 4.8 million and 5.2 million, inclusive, More than 5.2 million but fewer than 5.6 million, Between 5.6 million and 6.0 million, inclusive, More than 6.0 million
Answer: More than 5.2 million but fewer than 5.6 million
Question: Which team will win the 2022 College Football Playoff national championship?
The two semifinal games are scheduled for 31 December 2021, and the national championship game is scheduled for 10 January 2022 in Indianapolis (NCAA).
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2021-12-10; closed: 2022-01-10
Options: Alabama Crimson Tide, Cincinnati Bearcats, Georgia Bulldogs, Michigan Wolverines
Answer: Georgia Bulldogs
Question: Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?
President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 (ABC News, Council on Foreign Relations, AP). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 (Nicaragua Constitution [in Spanish], Nicaragua Constitution [in English]).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-01-06; closed: 2022-01-11
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 8 January 2022, will Facebook allow Donald Trump to post on Facebook and/or Instagram from any of his verified accounts?
On 5 May 2021, Facebook’s Oversight Board upheld a January decision to keep Donald Trump from posting content on his Facebook page and Instagram account, but criticized the current state of Facebook regulations as to content rules and gave the company six months to review those rules (Oversight Board, NPR, Fox Business).
Tags: Business, Technology, Society
Question opened: 2021-05-14; closed: 2022-01-08
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will US print book sales in 2021 exceed those in 2020?
In 2020, print book sales in the US were at their highest in a decade, rising 8.2% year over year (Publishing Perspectives, Publishers Weekly). The outcome will be determined using print book sales data as provided by The NPD Group (The NPD Group).
Tags: Business, Society, Entertainment
Question opened: 2021-05-07; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many units will Ford produce in North America in 2021?
While US motor vehicle demand has recovered from the worst of the pandemic days, ongoing shortages in microchips are hampering auto production (Detroit Free Press, Ford Authority). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Ford, expected in 2022 (Ford, see "U.S. Sales Reports"). For 2020, Ford reported production at 2,034,807 among plants in Canada, Mexico, and the US (Ford - Q4 2020 Sales Release, see page 4, "Total Production" for "Full Year").
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2021-08-06; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Fewer than 1.75 million, Between 1.75 million and 2.00 million, inclusive, More than 2.00 million but fewer than 2.25 million, Between 2.25 million and 2.50 million, inclusive, More than 2.50 million
Answer: More than 2.00 million but fewer than 2.25 million
Question: Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month in 2021?
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the US labor market hard, though it has been recovering (Pew Research, AP, Fox Business). The outcome will be determined using monthly data as first reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Revisions to data would be immaterial. For December 2020, the BLS reported a US civilian labor force participation rate of 61.5% (BLS Employment Situation Release - December 2020).
Tags: Business, Health, Economic Indicators, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-05-28; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021?
SPACs have seen rapid growth as an alternative to conventional initial public offerings (IPOs) (Investopedia, Vox, Benzinga). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as reported by SPACInsider on 7 January 2022 (SPACInsider). For 2020, gross proceeds from SPAC IPO transactions totaled 83,334.7 million dollars, or $83.3347 billion.
Tags: Business, Finance
Question opened: 2021-03-19; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Less than $100 billion, Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive, More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion, $180 billion or more
Answer: More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion
Question: What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021?
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which historically has been predictive of popular unrest, has been climbing in recent months (FAO, Axios, Slate). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in January 2022, typically released in the first week of the month (FAO).
Tags: Society, Health, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-03-19; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Less than 100.0, Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive, More than 110.0 but less than 120.0, Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive, More than 130.0
Answer: More than 130.0
Question: Will any four-week average of US field production of crude oil exceed 12 million b/d in 2021?
US oil production fell a record 8% in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic (EIA, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using the "4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day) as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (EIA). A weekly figure must have its "End Date" in 2021 to count. In June 2021, the EIA forecasted domestic production would reach an average of 11.38 million barrels per day (million b/d) in the fourth quarter of 2021 (EIA STEO June 2021, see Table 4a).
Tags: Business, Technology, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-06-11; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021?
Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with a record number of job openings reported for June 2021 (US Chamber of Commerce, Yahoo, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 November and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for November 2021, expected in January 2022 (BLS - JOLTS Release Schedule). For May 2021, the number of job openings for "Trade, transportation, and utilities" was 1,687 (in thousands) (JOLTS - June 2021, see Table A). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under "JOLTS Databases," select "ONE SCREEN" from "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)." For "1 Select one or more Industries," select "Trade, transportation, and utilities." For "2 Select one or more States or Regions," find and select "Total US." For "3 Select one or more Areas," select "All Areas." For "4 Select one or more Data Elements," find and select "Job openings." For "5 Select one or more Size Classes," find and select "All size classes." For "6 Select Rate and/or Level," leave only "Level - In Thousands" checked. For "7 Select Seasonal Adjustment," leave only "Seasonally Adjusted" checked, then click "Get Data."
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-09-03; closed: 2021-12-01
Options: Fewer than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million but fewer than 1.8 million, Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive, More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.2 million, 2.2 million or more
Answer: Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive