jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Will territory in any Ukrainian oblast that borders Belarus cease to be under Ukrainian control before 7 April 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
Fears are growing that Russia may again invade the north of Ukraine (Atlantic Council, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Guardian). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The Ukrainian oblasts that border Belarus are Chernihiv, Kyiv, Rivne, Volyn, and Zhytomyr, which you can identify by zooming in on the ISW map application. For the purposes of this question, "Claimed Russian Control" would not count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control, but "Assessed Russian Advance" and "Assessed Russian Control" would count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control.
Tags: Society, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-01-13; closed: 2023-04-07
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported between 1 October 2022 and 31 March 2023?
Experts expect a new wave of COVID-19 infections in the winter of 2022-23 (US News & World Report, Nature). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the CDC through and including 31 March 2023 at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 April 2023 (CDC COVID Data Tracker, click "Data Table for Daily Death Trends - The United States" under the chart, which includes a Download Data option). As of 6 October 2022, the CDC reported a total of 270,334 deaths attributed to COVID-19 between 1 October 2021 and 31 March 2022.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2022-10-07; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Fewer than 50,000, Between 50,000 and 100,000, inclusive, More than 100,000 but fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive, More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000, Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive, More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000, 350,000 or more
Answer: Between 50,000 and 100,000, inclusive
Question: Will the government of Belarus publicly announce or acknowledge that its armed forces have engaged in armed fighting in Ukraine before 7 April 2023?
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Ukraine of provocations due to the latter's deployment of troops to the border (US News & World Report). While Russia staged its invasion of Ukraine in part from Belarus, Lukashenko insists that its armed forces have not engaged in armed fighting (BELTA). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The participation and the announcement/acknowledgement would both have to occur during the question's open period to count. Acknowledging that members of the Belarusian armed forces may have volunteered to fight under Russian or Ukrainian command in a Russian or Ukrainian military unit would not count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-10-07; closed: 2023-04-07
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Paul Vallas win Chicago's 2023 mayoral election runoff?
Mayor Lori Lightfoot failed to reach the top two in Chicago's general election on 28 February 2023, leaving Chicago voters with the choice between Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson for the office (NBC Chicago, NBC News). The runoff election is scheduled for 4 April 2023 (Ballotpedia).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-03-03; closed: 2023-04-04
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Where will Dubai International Airport (DXB) rank among the busiest airports in the world by passenger number for 2022, according to the Airports Council International (ACI)?
While DBX was ranked 1st for number of international passengers in 2020 as it was in 2019, the airport fell out of the top 10 based on the overall number of passengers (ACI - 2020 Preliminary Rankings). The outcome will be determined using the first available ACI data for busiest airports rankings by passenger number in 2022, expected to be released in 2023 (ACI).
Tags: Business, Health, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-10-01; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: 1st to 3rd, 4th to 6th, 7th to 9th, 10th or lower
Answer: 4th to 6th
Question: What percentage of Canadians will report having ever visited their health care provider virtually online by video, according to the 2022 Canadian Digital Health Survey?
Canada Health Infoway conducts the annual Canadian Digital Health Survey to track various metrics and solicit feedback from Canadians (Infoway - Digital Health Survey). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2022 and the outcome determined using the results of the 2022 Canadian Digital Health Survey, expected to be made in the summer of 2022 and released later, as displayed on the infographics. In 2021, the percentage of survey respondents (Canadians over the age of 16) who reported that they had ever visited their health care provider virtually online by video was 17% (Infoway - Virtual Visits, see "Use of Virtual Visits (VIDEO)").
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-11-12; closed: 2022-09-01
Options: Less than 17%, Between 17% and 20%, inclusive, More than 20% but less than 25%, 25% or more
Answer: Between 17% and 20%, inclusive
Question: How many job "quits" in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for February 2023?
Labor shortages in the US continue, exacerbated by high levels of Americans quitting their jobs, a phenomenon called "The Great Resignation" (CNBC, CBS News). Per the BLS, "Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee." The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for February 2023, expected in March or April 2023 (BLS - JOLTS Release Calendar). For February 2022, the preliminary number of job quits was 4,352,000 (BLS - February 2022 JOLTS Release, see "Total" in Table 4). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under "JOLTS Databases," select "ONE SCREEN" from "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)." For "1 Select one or more Industries," select "Total nonfarm." For "2 Select one or more States or Regions," find and select "Total US." For "3 Select one or more Areas," select "All Areas." For "4 Select one or more Data Elements," find and select "Quits." For "5 Select one or more Size Classes," find and select "All size classes." For "6 Select Rate and/or Level," leave only "Level - In Thousands" checked. For "7 Select Seasonal Adjustment," leave only "Seasonally Adjusted" checked, then click "Get Data" (note that pop-up blockers may obstruct proper functioning). As of launch, the average monthly number of quits in 2019 was 3,517,000.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-04-06; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Fewer than 3.0 million, Between 3.0 million and 3.5 million, inclusive, More than 3.5 million but fewer than 4.0 million, Between 4.0 million and 4.5 million, inclusive, More than 4.5 million
Answer: Between 4.0 million and 4.5 million, inclusive
Question: What will be the percentage change in Qatar's real GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021?
As host of the World Cup in the fourth quarter of 2022, Qatar is expected to see a positive effect on its GDP (Zawya, Wilson Center). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using constant prices data as first reported by the Planning and Statistics Authority (PSA) of Qatar in its Quarterly National Accounts Bulletin for the fourth quarter of 2022 (Qatar Planning and Statistics Authority - National Accounts). In its Quarterly National Accounts Bulletin for the fourth quarter of 2021, the percentage change in Qatar's real GDP was 2.0% (Qatari National Accounts 4th Quarter 2021, see "Estimates of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Economic Activities at Constant Prices (2018=100), Q4, 2021" under "Y-o-Y" on page 10 in the file. Please note that there may be discrepancies between the title of a link to a report and the title in the report file itself. The report files themselves will be used.
Tags: Business, Sports, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-11-25; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Higher by less than 2.0% or lower, Higher by between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive, Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 6.0%, Higher by between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive, Higher by more than 8.0%
Answer: Higher by between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive
Question: Before 1 April 2023, will a NATO member state accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine?
As the war in Ukraine continues, fears remain that Russia may use chemical or biological weapons (Atlantic Council, Bloomberg, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (NATO). The use of chemical or biological agents confined to an individual or small group of individuals in noncombat situations would not count (e.g., Sergei and Yulia Skripal, Alexander Litvinenko, Viktor Yushchenko, Roman Abramovich) (Daily Mail, BBC). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. Accusations about incidents prior to Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine would be immaterial. An accusation must assert that Russia used a weapon that was itself a chemical or biological weapon, but an accusation of the use of white phosphorus alone would not count.
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-08-12; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in the first quarter of 2023?
The airline industry is striving to return to pre-COVID levels of air traffic in 2023 (Visual Capitalist, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (TSA). Totals for the previous four first quarters were 189,566,760 in 2019; 153,166,437 in 2020; 86,850,884 in 2021; and 158,171,113 in 2022.
Tags: Business, Society, Entertainment, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-12-30; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Fewer than 120 million, Between 120 million and 140 million, inclusive, More than 140 million but fewer than 160 million, Between 160 million and 180 million, inclusive, More than 180 million but fewer than 200 million, 200 million or more
Answer: More than 180 million but fewer than 200 million
Question: Before 1 April 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace?
Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (The Hill, US News & World Report). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov).
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-09-16; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of a country in the Horn of Africa before 1 April 2023?
Drought, conflict, and other factors have left millions in the Horn of Africa facing potential famine (ABC News, Reliefweb, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification - Mapping Tool). For the purposes of this question, the countries in the Horn of Africa are Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda (Britannica). For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.
Tags: Society, Health, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-06-24; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state before 1 April 2023?
As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, there is continued speculation that Putin may recognize Transnistria, a breakaway region in eastern Moldova on Ukraine's western border, which already hosts Russian peacekeepers (Britannica, European Council on Foreign Relations, Balkan Insight, G4 Media [in Romanian]).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-08-05; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of an ECOWAS member state in Western Africa before 1 April 2023?
War and conflict have left millions in Western Africa facing potential famine (Food and Agriculture Organization, Africa Report, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification - Mapping Tool). The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is made up of fifteen member countries that are located in Western Africa (ECOWAS). Whether a member state is suspended would be immaterial. For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.
Tags: Society, Health, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-05-27; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen before 1 April 2023?
War and conflict have left millions in Yemen facing potential famine (World Food Program - Yemen Emergency Dashboard March 2022, Hunger Hotspots - February to May 2022 Outlook, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification - Mapping Tool). For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.
Tags: Society, Health, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-06-03; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will an electrical blackout lasting at least one hour and affecting 60 million or more people in the US and/or Canada occur before 1 April 2023?
There are concerns over US vulnerability to potential power outages/blackouts due to energy demand, aging infrastructure, and cyberattacks (ASCE, Council on Foreign Relations). The outcome will be determined using credible open-source reporting. Examples of previous major blackouts affecting the US and/or Canada include The Great Northeast Blackout of 1965 and the Northeast Blackout of 2003 (History.com, BBC). Intentional "rolling blackouts" would not count (Constellation Energy Resources).
Tags: Business, Technology, Society
Question opened: 2022-08-05; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the Council of the European Union (Council) declare a "Union alert" triggering a mandatory, EU-wide reduction in natural gas consumption?
Amid fears of an energy crisis due to threats to Russian natural gas supplies, the Council adopted a regulation setting a voluntary natural gas consumption cut of 15% that could become mandatory upon the declaration of a "Union alert" (US News & World Report, Council of the European Union - Press Release, Council of the European Union - COUNCIL REGULATION on coordinated demand-reduction measures for gas, see Article 4). The question would close upon the date of the official decision being made by the Council, irrespective of the date of publication in the Official Journal.
Tags: Business, Society, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-08-12; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Before 1 October 2022, Between 1 October 2022 and 31 December 2022, Between 1 January 2023 and 31 March 2023, Not before 1 April 2023
Answer: Not before 1 April 2023
Question: What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of 29 March 2023?
As inflation began rising in the US and around the world in 2021, the Federal Reserve has laid the groundwork to begin reducing the size of its balance sheet as it raises interest rates (US News & World Report, CNBC, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve, with "Zoom" set to "1 y" (Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve - Table Format (data table)). As of 13 April 2022, the Total Assets of the Federal Reserve were $8,965,487 million, or $8.965487 trillion.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-04-29; closed: 2023-03-29
Options: Less than $7.2 trillion, Between $7.2 trillion and $7.6 trillion, inclusive, More than $7.6 trillion but less than $8.0 trillion, Between $8.0 trillion and $8.4 trillion, inclusive, More than $8.4 trillion but less than $8.8 trillion, Between $8.8 trillion and $9.2 trillion, inclusive, More than $9.2 trillion
Answer: More than $8.4 trillion but less than $8.8 trillion
Question: What will be the closing yield for the UK 10-year gilt (bond) on 31 March 2023?
Like Treasury bonds in the US, UK gilts are government bonds issued for different lengths of time (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC, set chart to "3M"). The closing yield for the UK 10-year gilt on 30 September 2022 was 4.0830%.
Tags: Business, Finance, Society, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-10-07; closed: 2023-03-31
Options: Less than 3.000%, Between 3.000% and 4.000%, inclusive, More than 4.000% but less than 5.000%, Between 5.000% and 6.000%, inclusive, More than 6.000% but less than 7.000%, 7.000% or more
Answer: Between 3.000% and 4.000%, inclusive
Question: Before 31 March 2023, will the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US fall below 4.55%?
Mortgage rates in the US have risen considerably in 2022 (CNBC, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). For the week ending 21 July 2022, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 5.54%.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-07-22; closed: 2023-03-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will Jair Bolsonaro return to Brazil?
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro left Brazil for Florida before President Lula's inauguration on 1 January 2023 (CNN). Brazil's Supreme Court is investigating actions by Bolsonaro supporters at various government buildings in Brasília on 8 January 2023 (AP, NPR).
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-01-20; closed: 2023-03-30
Options: Before 20 February 2023, Between 20 February 2023 and 22 March 2023, Between 23 March 2023 and 22 May 2023, Not before 23 May 2023
Answer: Between 23 March 2023 and 22 May 2023
Question: How many tech industry employees will be laid off in February 2023 and March 2023, according to Layoffs.fyi?
As economic outlooks weaken, tech companies have begun laying off workers (Nonrival, BBC, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the website Layoffs.fyi (Layoffs.fyi, see "Layoff Charts" and hover your cursor over the chart for monthly data). Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM on 7 April 2023. As of the launch of this question, layoffs for 10,249 employees were reported in December 2022.
Tags: Business, Technology, Society
Question opened: 2023-02-02; closed: 2023-03-22
Options: 30,000 or more in February 2023, but not March 2023, 30,000 or more in March 2023, but not February 2023, 30,000 or more in both February 2023 and March 2023, Fewer than 30,000 in both February 2023 and March 2023
Answer: 30,000 or more in both February 2023 and March 2023
Question: At close of business on 22 March 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 1 February 2023?
The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 21-22 March 2023.
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-11-04; closed: 2023-03-22
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Higher
Question: What will be the highest annual inflation rate in the UK's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for any month between and including September 2022 and February 2023?
Inflation concerns continue to rise in the UK, particularly regarding energy (CNBC, Axios). The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 and the outcome will be determined using the "CPI ANNUAL RATE" as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) when data for February 2023 are first released, expected in March 2023 (ONS, hover cursor over chart line for data).
Tags: Economic Policy, Economic Indicators, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-08-26; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Less than 11.0%, Between 11.0% and 14.0%, inclusive, More than 14.0% but less than 17.0%, Between 17.0% and 20.0%, inclusive, More than 20.0% but less than 23.0%, 23.0% or more
Answer: Between 11.0% and 14.0%, inclusive
Question: Between 16 September 2022 and 16 March 2023, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Georgia and those of Russia, Abkhazia, and/or South Ossetia result in 100 or more fatalities?
Amid Russia's war in Ukraine and renewed fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan, some officials in Georgia are calling for a referendum on reclaiming the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia lost in Russia's invasion in 2008 (Odessa Journal, US Institute of Peace, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, NPR). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-09-16; closed: 2023-03-17
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 16 September 2022 and 16 March 2023, will Russia publicly announce that it has moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine?
As fighting continues in Ukraine, there are continuing concerns that Russia may deploy nuclear weapons westward in the region (ABC News, BBC, DefenseNews). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. For the purposes of this question, Russia's detonation of a nuclear device in either Belarus or Ukraine would be considered a Russian public announcement that it moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine.
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-09-16; closed: 2023-03-17
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will federal legislation providing for the establishment of a US interagency committee on global catastrophic risk become law before 1 January 2023?
On 23 June 2022, US Sens. Rob Portman and Gary Peters introduced a bill entitled the "Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act of 2022," which would require the president to establish an interagency committee on catastrophic risk (Congress.gov, Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs).
Tags: Society, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-07-29; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 9 March 2023?
Oil prices are being pushed and pulled by a number of factors, from production limits and Russian sanctions to demand concerns (US News & World Report, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using US Energy Information Administration data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED).
Tags: Business, Technology, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-09-09; closed: 2023-03-09
Options: Less than $48.00 per barrel, Between $48.00 and $60.00 per barrel, inclusive, More than $60.00 but less than $72.00 per barrel, Between $72.00 and $84.00 per barrel, inclusive, More than $84.00 but less than $96.00 per barrel, Between $96.00 and $108.00 per barrel, inclusive, More than $108.00 but less than $120.00 per barrel, $120.00 or more per barrel
Answer: Between $72.00 and $84.00 per barrel, inclusive