jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: How many states will have reported more total COVID-19 cases for September 2020 than for June 2020?
Question opened: 2020-05-04; closed: 2020-09-29
Options: Fewer than 4, Between 4 and 11, Between 12 and 19, Between 20 and 27, Between 28 and 35, Between 36 and 43, 44 or more
Answer: 44 or more
Question: Between 19 June 2020 and 30 September 2020, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China?
A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over a further escalation of tensions between the two neighbors (Economist, BBC, CNN). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2020-06-19; closed: 2020-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many active California fires with 10,000 or more acres burned will be reported by the LA Times' California Fire Map as of 1 October 2020?
California has already experienced record-setting wildfires in 2020 and more could be on the way (Guardian, Mercury News, NY Times). The outcome will be determined using the LA Times' California Fire Map as of 5:00PM ET on 1 October 2020 (LA Times, left side). As of 1 September there are 14 fires with 10,000 or more acres burned.
Tags: Society, Environment
Question opened: 2020-09-04; closed: 2020-10-01
Options: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more
Answer: 4 or more
Question: When will a new tax framework for multinational tech companies be submitted by the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)?
The OECD has been working for years to seek modernization of the international tax system to, among other things, deal with tax avoidance by large multinational tech companies (Economist, Financial Times, OECD BEPS). The next step would be submission of a plan to the Inclusive Framework, a group of countries working together on international tax reform (OECD Programme of Work, OECD Inclusive Framework).
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2019-12-06; closed: 2020-10-01
Options: Before 1 May 2020, Between 1 May 2020 and 30 September 2020, Not before 1 October 2020
Answer: Not before 1 October 2020
Question: How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Brazil as of 1 October 2020?
Question opened: 2020-06-26; closed: 2020-10-01
Options: Fewer than 90,000, Between 90,000 and 120,000, inclusive, More than 120,000 but fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 180,000, inclusive, More than 180,000
Answer: More than 120,000 but fewer than 150,000
Question: What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 September 2020 relative to its closing value on 30 June 2020?
Question opened: 2020-07-01; closed: 2020-09-30
Options: Down more than 15.0%, Down between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, Between down less than 5.0% and up less than 5.0%, Up between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, Up more than 15.0%
Answer: Up between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive
Question: Will China's Three Gorges Dam fail before 1 October 2020?
Recent flooding has devastated large areas of China, drawing attention to the safety and efficacy of the massive Three Gorges Dam (Economist, The Interpreter, Reuters). For the purposes of this question, a failure would be the actual "sudden, rapid, and uncontrolled release of impounded water" (U.S. Forest Service).
Tags: Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2020-07-22; closed: 2020-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will Telegram’s digital currency, Gram, launch for the public?
The Internet messaging service Telegraph delayed plans to launch a digital currency, Gram, from October 2019 to April 2020 (Economist, Finance Magnates, Crypto News, NY Times).
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2019-12-06; closed: 2020-10-01
Options: Before 1 May 2020, Between 1 May 2020 and 30 September 2020, Not before 1 October 2020
Answer: Not before 1 October 2020
Question: Before 1 October 2020, will North Korea announce that it has a new head of state?
Question opened: 2020-05-01; closed: 2020-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the team winning the 2020 National Basketball Association championship be a first-time champion?
As of the start of the 2019-2020, eleven NBA franchises have never won a championship: Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns, and the Utah Jazz (NBA). The NBA finals are scheduled to begin on 4 June 2020 (NBA).
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2020-02-07; closed: 2020-09-27
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many MLB players will have a regular season batting average of .400 or higher in 2020?
No Major League Baseball player has had a .400 batting average for a season since Ted Williams in 1941 (Baseball Almanac). How the shortened season will affect major performance numbers like batting average remains to be seen (Call to the Pen). The outcome will be determine using batting average data from ESPN (ESPN). A player must have at least 3.1 plate appearances per team game to count (MLB, see Rule 9.22).
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2020-08-11; closed: 2020-09-27
Options: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more
Answer: 0
Question: What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 22 September 2020 relative to its closing value on 28 August 2020?
The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). The S&P 500 Index closed at 3,508.01 on 28 August 2020.
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-08-28; closed: 2020-09-22
Options: Down more than 12.0%, Down between 4.0% and 12.0%, inclusive, Between down less than 4.0% and up less than 4.0%, Up between 4.0% and 12.0%, inclusive, Up more than 12.0%
Answer: Down between 4.0% and 12.0%, inclusive
Question: What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 22 September 2020, according to Bloomberg?
The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-08-28; closed: 2020-09-22
Options: Less than $25.00, Between $25.00 and $35.00, inclusive, More than $35.00 but less than $45.00, Between $45.00 and $55.00, inclusive, More than $55.00
Answer: More than $35.00 but less than $45.00
Question: What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 22 September 2020?
The outcome will  be determined using data from CNBC (CNBC).
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-08-28; closed: 2020-09-22
Options: Less than 1.200%, Between 1.200% and 1.400%, inclusive, More than 1.400% but less than 1.600%, Between 1.600% and 1.800%, inclusive, More than 1.800%
Answer: More than 1.400% but less than 1.600%
Question: Before 22 September 2020, will federal legislation to provide at least $100 billion in direct financial assistance to state and/or local governments become law?
In March 2020, the CARES Act was passed to provide funding to corporations and small businesses via the Paycheck Protection Program and to private citizens in the form of stimulus payments, among other financial initiatives (Treasury.gov, National Conference of State Legislatures). As the COVID-19 crisis continues, state and local governments are under stress, and proposals have been made for federal assistance (Pew Charitable Trusts, The Hill).
Tags: Finance, Health, Economic Policy, US Politics
Question opened: 2020-08-28; closed: 2020-09-22
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the closing price of Tesla stock on 22 September 2020?
The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2020-08-29; closed: 2020-09-22
Options: Less than $400.00, Between $400.00 and $450.00, inclusive, More than $450.00 but less than $500.00, Between $500.00 and $550.00, inclusive, More than $550.00
Answer: Between $400.00 and $450.00, inclusive
Question: What will be the total domestic box office gross for Tenet as of 8 September 2020, according to Box Office Mojo?
Question opened: 2020-05-08; closed: 2020-09-08
Options: Less than $1 million, Between $1 million and $80 million, inclusive, More than $80 million but less than $160 million, Between $160 million and $240 million, inclusive, More than $240 million
Answer: Between $1 million and $80 million, inclusive
Question: Before 1 October 2020, will there be a period of at least 14 consecutive days without a new reported case of COVID-19 in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)?
Question opened: 2020-05-21; closed: 2020-09-17
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Who will win the 2020 NBA Most Valuable Player Award?
On 8 August 2020 the NBA announced the award finalists, who were selected based on games up to the season's suspension on 11 March 2020 (NBA).
Tags: Business, Health, Sports
Question opened: 2020-08-20; closed: 2020-09-18
Options: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks, James Harden, Houston Rockets, LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
Answer: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Question: At close of business on 16 September 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 29 July 2020?
Question opened: 2020-05-01; closed: 2020-09-16
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: Before 15 November 2020, who will be elected to be the next leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)?
Japanese Prime Minister and LDP President Shinzo Abe announced his resignation due to health reason, which will trigger an election to select the next leader of the party (Reuters, South China Morning Post, Al Jazeera).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-08-28; closed: 2020-09-14
Options: Taro Aso, Shigeru Ishiba, Fumio Kishida, Taro Kono, Yoshihide Suga, Someone else
Answer: Yoshihide Suga
Question: On 1 September 2020, how many states will report a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?
As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load (CDC). The outcome will be determined using data provided in the chart “How is My State Doing on Key Measures?” under "COVID+ RATE IS" found at https://www.covidexitstrategy.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 September 2020.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-07-02; closed: 2020-09-01
Options: 5 or fewer, Between 6 and 10, Between 11 and 15, Between 16 and 20, 21 or more
Answer: Between 11 and 15
Question: What will be the total domestic box office gross for Disney’s Mulan as of 8 September 2020, according to Box Office Mojo?
Question opened: 2020-05-01; closed: 2020-09-08
Options: Less than $1 million, Between $1 million and $70 million, inclusive, More than $70 million but less than $140 million, Between $140 million and $210 million, inclusive, More than $210 million
Answer: Less than $1 million
Question: For between 8 July 2020 and 7 August 2020, how many fatalities related to political violence and protest events will ACLED record in Ethiopia?
The murder of Hachalu Hundessa, a popular singer from Ethiopia's Oromia region, has triggered violence across much of the country (Economist, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) at acleddata.com. On the page, set the "From" field to 8 July 2020, the "To" field to 7 August 2020, the "Country" field to "Ethiopia" (the remaining fields left at "All") and click "Export."  The total of the numbers under "fatalities" in the exported file will be retrieved at 5:00PM ET on 14 August 2020.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2020-07-07; closed: 2020-08-07
Options: Fewer than 100, Between 100 and 500, Between 501 and 1,000, Between 1,001 and 3,000, More than 3,000
Answer: Fewer than 100
Question: Who will win the 2020 NBA Rookie of the Year Award?
On 8 August 2020 the NBA announced the award finalists, who were selected based on games up to the season's suspension on 11 March 2020 (NBA).
Tags: Business, Health, Sports
Question opened: 2020-08-20; closed: 2020-09-03
Options: Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies, Kendrick Nunn, Miami Heat, Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans
Answer: Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies
Question: On 1 September 2020, how many states will report a COVID-19 fatality rate of 5.0% or higher?
As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load (CDC). The outcome will be determined based on the data provided in the chart “Can Our Health System Handle the Spread?” under "CASE FATALITY RATE" found at https://www.covidexitstrategy.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 September 2020.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-07-02; closed: 2020-09-01
Options: 6 or fewer, Between 7 and 12, Between 13 and 18, Between 19 and 24, 25 or more
Answer: Between 7 and 12
Question: When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?
The number of people traveling by commercial plane has dropped dramatically since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic (WTKR). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA (TSA). The TSA last screened at least two million travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.
Tags: Business, Health
Question opened: 2020-04-03; closed: 2020-09-01
Options: Before 1 June 2020, Between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020, Between 1 July 2020 and 31 July 2020, Between 1 August 2020 and 31 August 2020, Not before 1 September 2020
Answer: Not before 1 September 2020
Question: Before 1 September 2020, will Cameroon's Paul Biya and/or Togo's Faure Gnassingbé cease to be the president of their respective countries?
Long-seated African leaders like Cameroon's President Paul Biya and Togo's President Faure Gnassingbé could see their political fates tested in 2020 (Economist).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit
Question opened: 2020-01-31; closed: 2020-09-01
Options: Yes, only President Paul Biya, Yes, only President Faure Gnassingbé, Yes, both, No
Answer: No
Question: How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 31 August 2020?
The Rt is "the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person" (Rt.live). The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 31 August 2020 at https://rt.live. As of 2 July 2020, 38 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-07-02; closed: 2020-08-31
Options: 24 or fewer, Between 25 and 30, Between 31 and 36, Between 37 and 42, 43 or more
Answer: 24 or fewer
Question: Before 29 August 2020, will the German Bundesbank be barred from participating in the European Central Bank's (ECB's) PSPP quantitative easing program?
In early May 2020, Germany's top court ruled that the Bundesbank must stop buying government bonds under the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) and gave the ECB three months to make changes, otherwise the bank would be barred from further participation (Economist, Reuters, German Federal Constitutional Court). A partial bar would count.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-06-05; closed: 2020-08-29
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Which soccer/football club will win the 2019-20 UEFA Champions League?
The 2019–20 Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) Champions League final game is scheduled to be played on 30 May 2020 (UEFA, FiveThirtyEight).
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2019-10-22; closed: 2020-08-23
Options: Ajax, Atlético de Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Dortmund, Juventus, Liverpool, Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid, Another soccer/football club
Answer: Bayern Munich
Question: Between 15 November 2019 and 21 August 2020, will the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) attribute a cross-market trading halt to a cyberattack?
The NYSE will trigger a trading halt under certain conditions, including market declines of specific magnitudes (NYSE). The trading halt and attribution must both take place during the period of interest.
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2019-11-15; closed: 2020-08-22
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 20 August 2020?
A mid-June cluster of new COVID-19 cases in Beijing has sparked concerns over a new wave of infections in China (CNN). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO for 20 August 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (WHO Situation Reports, WHO). As of 18 June 2020, WHO reported a total of 84,903 confirmed cases.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-06-19; closed: 2020-08-20
Options: Less than 86,000, Between 86,000 and 88,000, inclusive, More than 88,000 but less than 92,000, Between 92,000 and 100,000, inclusive, More than 100,000
Answer: More than 88,000 but less than 92,000
Question: Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project ). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project  for examples. See GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2019-07-01; closed: 2019-09-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project) for examples. See GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2019-07-01; closed: 2019-09-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (https://www.earlywarningproject.org). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2019-07-01; closed: 2019-09-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No