jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2019-03-29; closed: 2019-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2019-03-29; closed: 2019-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2019-03-29; closed: 2019-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Philippines from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2019-03-29; closed: 2019-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 10 May 2020?
Question opened: 2020-05-04; closed: 2020-05-10
Options: Less than 1,200,000, Between 1,200,000 and 1,250,000, inclusive, More than 1,250,000 but less than 1,300,000, Between 1,300,000 and 1,350,000, inclusive, More than 1,350,000 but less than 1,400,000, Between 1,400,000 and 1,450,000, inclusive, More than 1,450,000
Answer: Between 1,300,000 and 1,350,000, inclusive
Question: As of 9 May 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana, as reported by COVID Tracker?
The question will be suspended on 8 May 2020. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by The COVID Tracking Project for 9 May 2020 as provided on 11 May 2020 after 5:00PM ET (The COVID Tracking Project). As of 19 April 2020, reported Louisiana deaths totaled 1,296.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-04-23; closed: 2020-05-09
Options: Less than 2,000, Between 2,000 and 2,750, inclusive, More than 2,750 but less than 3,500, Between 3,500 and 4,250, inclusive, More than 4,250
Answer: Between 2,000 and 2,750, inclusive
Question: As of 9 May 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the U.S. as reported by COVID Tracker?
The question will be suspended on 8 May 2020. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by The COVID Tracking Project for 9 May 2020 as provided on 11 May 2020 after 5:00PM ET (The COVID Tracking Project). As of 19 April 2020, reported U.S. deaths totaled 35,793.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-04-23; closed: 2020-05-09
Options: Less than 60,000, Between 60,000 and 70,000, inclusive, More than 70,000 but less than 80,000, Between 80,000 and 90,000, inclusive, More than 90,000 but less than 100,000, More than 100,000
Answer: More than 70,000 but less than 80,000
Question: As of 9 May 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois, as reported by COVID Tracker?
The question will be suspended on 8 May 2020. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by The COVID Tracking Project for 9 May 2020 as provided on 11 May 2020 after 5:00PM ET (The COVID Tracking Project). As of 19 April 2020, reported Illinois deaths totaled 1,290.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-04-23; closed: 2020-05-09
Options: Less than 2,000, Between 2,000 and 3,000, inclusive, More than 3,000 but less than 4,000, Between 4,000 and 5,000, inclusive, More than 5,000
Answer: More than 3,000 but less than 4,000
Question: Will a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) declaration pertaining to the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) be in effect as of 6 May 2020?
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General declared a PHEIC regarding COVID-19 (Statnews, Guardian, WHO). The Emergency Committee is due to reconvene within three months or earlier from the date of the declaration to review the current epidemiological situation (WHO).
Tags: Society, Health
Question opened: 2020-02-14; closed: 2020-05-07
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many paying subscribers will "Disney+" have according to Disney in the second quarter of its Fiscal Year 2020?
Disney+, the media giant's streaming service, launched in November 2019 (Economist, CNET). Disney reported 26.5 million subscribers for the first quarter of its Fiscal Year 2020 (October-December 2019) and has further plans to launch in Europe in late March 2020 (Walt Disney Company, CNBC). Disney's earnings for the second quarter of its Fiscal Year 2020 (January-March 2020) are scheduled to be released on 12 May 2020 (Business Insider).
Tags: Business, Technology, Entertainment
Question opened: 2020-03-06; closed: 2020-05-05
Options: Less than 35.0 million, Between 35.0 million and 45.0 million, inclusive, More than 45.0 million but less than 55.0 million, 55.0 million or more, Disney will not report paying subscriber figures for Disney+
Answer: Less than 35.0 million
Question: Who will win the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?
The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for 3 February 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates, reported as "state delegate equivalents" in Iowa (Des Moines Register). In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most final votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-01-03; closed: 2020-02-03
Options: Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else
Answer: Pete Buttigieg
Question: How many states will have reported 1,000 or more COVID-19 deaths as of 1 May 2020?
As of 11 April 2020, three states have reported 1,000 or more COVID-19 deaths: Michigan, New Jersey, and New York. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by The COVID Tracking Project for 1 May 2020 as provided on 4 May 2020 after 5:00PM ET (The COVID Tracking Project). For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-04-13; closed: 2020-05-01
Options: Less than 5, Between 5 and 7, inclusive, More than 7 but less than 11, Between 11 and 13, inclusive, More than 13
Answer: More than 13
Question: How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 3 May 2020?
Question opened: 2020-04-27; closed: 2020-05-03
Options: Less than 1,050,000, Between 1,050,000 and 1,100,000, inclusive, More than 1,100,000 but less than 1,150,000, Between 1,150,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive, More than 1,200,000
Answer: Between 1,150,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive
Question: Before 1 May 2020, will the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close below 15.00?
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-03-20; closed: 2020-05-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: At close of business on 29 April 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 18 March 2020?
The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 28-29 April 2020.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2019-12-13; closed: 2020-04-29
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: Before 4 July 2020, will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P downgrade Italy's long-term foreign currency issuer ratings?
Amidst a full lockdown, Italy's long-term growth potential could take a hit (Reuters, Trading Economics). Revisions to the "outlook" would not count.
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-03-27; closed: 2020-04-28
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be Russia's 2019 military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, according to SIPRI?
This question will be resolved using data reported by SIPRI. According to SIPRI, Russia's 2016 military expenditures were 5.3% of GDP. The question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year.
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2018-04-18; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Less than 4.4%, Between 4.4% and 4.9%, inclusive, More than 4.9% but less than 5.5%, Between 5.5% and 6.0%, inclusive, More than 6.0%
Answer: Less than 4.4%
Question: How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 June 2020?
As of 25 March 2020, WHO reported 8,081 confirmed cases for the United Kingdom (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 1 June 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (WHO).
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-03-26; closed: 2020-04-26
Options: Less than 25,000 cases, Between 25,000 and 65,000 cases, inclusive, More than 65,000 but less than 105,000 cases, Between 105,000 and 145,000 cases, inclusive, More than 145,000 cases
Answer: More than 145,000 cases
Question: In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. City of New York, NY (NYC), will the Supreme Court rule that NYC’s previous ban on transporting a licensed, locked, and unloaded handgun to a home or shooting range outside city limits is unconstitutional?
Various plaintiffs sued NYC in federal court over the limits it placed on transporting licensed firearms in the city, where NYC prevailed (NYC.gov, Leagle). While the Second Circuit affirmed the lower court, NYC, fearing a loss before the Supreme Court after it agreed to hear an appeal, eased the relevant limits in the hopes of rendering the appeal moot (Casetext, NY Times, Washington Post). The Court declined to dismiss the case due to mootness, though the issue is set to be considered along with the merits at oral arguments (Oyez, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2019 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
Tags: Society, US Politics
Question opened: 2019-11-29; closed: 2020-04-27
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 26 April 2020?
The question will be suspended on 25 April 2020. The outcome will be determined using data from The COVID Tracking Project for Sunday 26 April 2020 as of 4:00PM ET on Monday 27 April under "Positive" (COVID Tracking Project). The COVID Tracking Project reported 576,774 total cases through 13 April 2020.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-04-20; closed: 2020-04-26
Options: Less than 850,000, Between 850,000 and 900,000, inclusive, More than 900,000 but less than 950,000, Between 950,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive, More than 1,000,000 but less than 1,050,000, Between 1,050,000 and 1,100,000, inclusive, More than 1,100,000
Answer: Between 950,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive
Question: Before 18 April 2020, will former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?
There is an international arrest warrant out for Puigdemont, who fled Catalonia after an October 2017 independence referendum that the Spanish government declared to be illegal (Washington Post, El Pais, Reuters, Independent).
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2019-10-18; closed: 2020-04-18
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2020?
The Chinese economy is expected to be impacted by the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus in the country (NBC News, BBC, Foreign Policy, FXStreet). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (National Bureau of Statistics). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 1Q 2019, the index was 106.4, which equates to 6.4% growth. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2020 and closed when the relevant data for 1Q 2020 are released, scheduled for April 2020.
Tags: Health, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-02-07; closed: 2020-04-01
Options: Less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 5.5%, inclusive, More than 5.5%
Answer: Less than 4.0%
Question: How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 19 April 2020?
The question will be suspended on 18 April 2020. The outcome will be determined using data from The COVID Tracking Project for Sunday 19 April 2020 as of 4:00PM ET on Monday 20 April under "Positive" (COVID Tracking Project). The COVID Tracking Project reported 424,289 total cases through 8 April 2020.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-04-13; closed: 2020-04-19
Options: Less than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 750,000, inclusive, More than 750,000 but less than 800,000, Between 800,000 and 850,000, inclusive, More than 850,000 but less than 900,000, Between 900,000 and 950,000, inclusive, More than 950,000 but less than 1,000,000, 1,000,000 or more
Answer: Between 700,000 and 750,000, inclusive
Question: What will be the end-of-day closing value for the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan on 17 April 2020?
In August 2019, the yuan rose above the 7-per-dollar level for the first time in eleven years amidst increased China-US trade tensions (Reuters). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2019-10-11; closed: 2020-04-17
Options: Less than CNY 6.5000, Between CNY 6.5000 and CNY 7.0000, inclusive, Between CNY 7.0000 and CNY 7.5000, Between CNY 7.5000 and CNY 8.0000, inclusive, More than CNY 8.0000
Answer: Between CNY 7.0000 and CNY 7.5000
Question: How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?
As of 25 March 2020, WHO reported 39,673 confirmed cases for Spain (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 1 May 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (WHO).
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-03-26; closed: 2020-04-17
Options: Less than 60,000 cases, Between 60,000 and 100,000 cases, inclusive, More than 100,000 but less than 140,000 cases, Between 140,000 and 180,000 cases, inclusive, More than 180,000 cases
Answer: More than 180,000 cases
Question: How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 12 April 2020?
The question will be suspended on 11 April 2020 and the outcome will be determined using data from The COVID Tracking Project for Sunday 12 April 2020 as of 4:00PM ET on Monday 13 April under "Positive" (The COVID Tracking Project). The COVID Tracking Project reported 305,755 total cases through 4 April 2020.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-04-05; closed: 2020-04-12
Options: Less than 500,000, Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive, More than 600,000 but less than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive, More than 800,000 but less than 900,000, Between 900,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive, More than 1,000,000 but less than 1,100,000, Between 1,100,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive, More than 1,200,000
Answer: Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive
Question: How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?
As of 25 March 2020, WHO reported 2,696 deaths attributed to COVID-19 for Spain (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 1 May 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of deaths reported before this question's launch (WHO).
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-03-26; closed: 2020-04-10
Options: Less than 6,000 deaths, Between 6,000 and 9,000 deaths, inclusive, More than 9,000 but less than 12,000 deaths, Between 12,000 and 15,000 deaths, inclusive, More than 15,000 deaths
Answer: More than 15,000 deaths
Question: How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 June 2020?
As of 25 March 2020, WHO reported 422 deaths attributed to COVID-19 for the United Kingdom (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 1 June 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of deaths reported before this question's launch (WHO).
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-03-26; closed: 2020-04-10
Options: Less than 1,000 deaths, Between 1,000 and 3,000 deaths, inclusive, More than 3,000 but less than 5,000 deaths, Between 5,000 and 7,000 deaths, inclusive, More than 7,000 deaths
Answer: More than 7,000 deaths
Question: When will Bernie Sanders cease to be a candidate for the 2020 Democratic nomination for president?
Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are the two remaining candidates in the race for the Democratic nomination (NPR, NY Times). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Sanders no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.
Tags: Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-04-03; closed: 2020-04-08
Options: Before 1 May 2020, Between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2020, Between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020, Between 1 July 2020 and 31 July 2020, Not before 1 August 2020
Answer: Before 1 May 2020