jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: When will North Korea next launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?
North Korea has launched a flurry of missile tests in 2022  (Economist, NPR, Al Jazeera). For the purposes of this question, ambiguous reporting regarding the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be ultimately decided using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. A submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) would not count.
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-02-24; closed: 2023-03-16
Options: Before 24 May 2023, Between 24 May 2023 and 23 August 2023, Not before 24 August 2023
Answer: Before 24 May 2023
Question: Will the New York Times report more than 8,000 new cases of COVID-19 in Virginia for a single day between 10 January 2023 and 15 March 2023?
After declining steadily since August 2022, daily new cases of COVID-19 began to rise in December 2022 (WTVR). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the New York Times (NY Times, select "Last 90 days" under "New reported cases" and hover your cursor over the chart for data). For 2 January 2023, 6,430 new cases were reported in Virginia.
Tags: Society, Health
Question opened: 2023-01-10; closed: 2023-03-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 15 March 2023?
The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (Newsweek, Politico). For the purposes of this question, "territorial waters" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan, and military drones would count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, US Politics, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-09-09; closed: 2023-03-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Which film will win the 2023 Oscar for Best Picture?
The 95th Academy Awards, known as the Oscars, are scheduled for 12 March 2023 (Oscars). In the event of a tie, the film with the higher box office total through and including 11 March 2023 according to Box Office Mojo would be deemed the winner.
Tags: Business, Society, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-01-27; closed: 2023-03-12
Options: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fablemans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
Answer: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Question: How many Oscars will the film Everything Everywhere All at Once win?
Everything Everywhere All at Once leads the nominations in 2023 at 11 (NPR). The 95th Academy Awards, known as the Oscars, are scheduled for 12 March 2023 (Oscars). For the purposes of this question, a tie in a category would count as a win.
Tags: Business, Society, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-01-27; closed: 2023-03-12
Options: None, 1, Between 2 and 4, Between 5 and 7, 8 or more
Answer: Between 5 and 7
Question: Will the total monetary value of victim losses reported by the FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) for 2022 reach or exceed $9.0 billion?
The FBI's IC3 collects Internet crime complaints and publishes an annual Internet Crime Report (IC3). For 2021, IC3 reported in excess of $6.9 billion in total victim losses (FBI). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using IC3's 2022 Internet Crime Report, expected to be released in the spring of 2023 (IC3 Annual Reports).
Tags: Technology, Society
Question opened: 2022-05-20; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many part-time workers will there be in the US in February 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)?
The number of part-time workers in the US has recovered some since the beginning of the pandemic but is still below pre-pandemic levels of approximately 27 million. The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the by the BLS for February 2023, expected in March 2023 (BLS - Release Calendar). As of the March 2022 Employment Situation report, the number of part-time workers for February 2022 was 25,801,000 (BLS - February 2020 Employment Situation, see "Part-time workers" in Table A-9 Selected employment indicators). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment. Under "Monthly," select "ONE SCREEN" from "Labor Force Statistics." For "1 Sex," select "Both Sexes." For "2 Race," find and select "All Races." For "3 Hispanic or Latino Ethnicity," find and select "All Origins." For "4 Age," find and select "16 years and over." For "5 Education (25 years and over only)," select "All education levels." For "6 Marital Status," find and select "N/A." For "7 Labor Force Status," find and select "Employed part time (persons who usually work less than 35 hours)." For "8 Seasonal," leave only "Seasonally Adjusted" checked. For "9 Periodicity, leave only "Monthly" checked, then click "Get Data" (note that pop-up blockers may obstruct proper functioning).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-04-06; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Fewer than 25 million, Between 25 million and 26 million, inclusive, More than 26 million but fewer than 27 million, 27 million or more
Answer: 27 million or more
Question: Between 1 December 2022 and 28 February 2023, will the 7-day moving average of COVID-19 reported cases in British Columbia (BC) reach or exceed 1,000, according to the BC Center for Disease Control?
The BC health system is already grappling with increases in respiratory diseases, though COVID-19 cases have thus far remained low as winter approaches (CBC, Vancouver Sun). The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the "BC COVID-19 Dashboard" (BC Centre for Disease Control, click "COVID-19 Dashboard"). The "7-day Moving Avg" data can be viewed in the chart under "B.C. Cases Reported to Public Health" by hovering your cursor over the line for the average. You may also see daily numbers by hovering your cursor over the daily columns more easily by narrowing the date range with the slider immediately above the chart. As of 29 November 2022, the 7-day moving average of reported COVID-19 cases on 4 November 2022 was 57.6.
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, Health, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-11-29; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will US FCC nominee Gigi Sohn be confirmed by the Senate before 24 June 2023?
President Biden first nominated Sohn to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in October 2021, but the Senate did not hold a confirmation vote in the last Congress (NPR). Biden renominated her in January 2023, but Republican opposition remains high (Ars Technica, Roll Call, Deadline). The question would close early upon either a withdrawal of her nomination or a full Senate vote against confirmation.
Tags: Business, Technology, Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-02-24; closed: 2023-03-07
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the average price of large eggs per dozen in the US as of 3 March 2023, according to the USDA?
Egg prices rose substantially in 2022, though there are reports that they may have peaked in December (USA Today, Farm Policy News). The question will be suspended on 2 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data from the USDA (USDA - Shell Eggs: Weekly Combined Regional Shell Eggs, click on a release of the report and look up the value in the "COMBINED REGIONAL" row under the "LARGE" column). Links to previous releases are available at the bottom of the page. On 27 January 2023, the USDA reported the average combined regional price of 337.34 cents per dozen (USDA - Weekly Combined Regional Shell Eggs 27 January 2023).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Health, Environment, Sports
Question opened: 2023-02-03; closed: 2023-03-03
Options: Less than 200 cents, Between 200 cents and 250 cents, inclusive, More than 250 cents but less than 300 cents, Between 300 cents and 350 cents, inclusive, More than 350 cents but less than 400 cents, Between 400 and 450 cents, inclusive, More than 450 cents
Answer: More than 250 cents but less than 300 cents
Question: What will be the US office vacancy rate for the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?
Office vacancy rates increased sharply during 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and new work-from-home dynamics (Flatland KC, NY Business Journal, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using the US office vacancy rate as reported in the Colliers Q4 2022 Office Market Outlook report, expected in February 2023 (Colliers). The rate for Q4 2019, before the pandemic, was 11.4%; the rate for Q2 2021, at question launch, was 14.7% (Colliers - Q4 2019, Colliers - Q2 2021).
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-09-17; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Lower than 12.5%, Between 12.5% and 14.0%, inclusive, Higher than 14.0% but lower than 15.5%, Between 15.5% and 17.0%, inclusive, Higher than 17.0%
Answer: Between 15.5% and 17.0%, inclusive
Question: What will be the value of the FAO Cereals Price Index for February 2023?
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Indicies, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs (Axios, Slate). The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for Cereals for February 2023, expected in early March 2023 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of launch, the value for the Cereals Price Index for March 2022 was 170.1. To download historical nominal data, click either "Excel" or "CSV" above the chart titled "FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms."
Tags: Business, Society, Health, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-04-08; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Less than 120.0, Between 120.0 and 140.0, inclusive, More than 140.0 but less than 160.0, Between 160.0 and 180.0, inclusive, More than 180.0 but less than 200.0, Between 200.0 and 220.0, inclusive, More than 220.0 but less than 240.0, 240.0 or more
Answer: More than 140.0 but less than 160.0
Question: What will be the value of the FAO Meat Price Index for February 2023?
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Indicies, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs (Axios, Slate). The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for Meat for February 2023, expected in early March 2023 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of launch, the value for the Meat Price Index for March 2022 was 120.0. To download historical nominal data, click either "Excel" or "CSV" above the chart titled "FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms."
Tags: Business, Society, Health, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-04-08; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Less than 105.0, Between 105.0 and 114.0, inclusive, More than 114.0 but less than 123.0, Between 123.0 and 132.0, inclusive, More than 132.0 but less than 141.0, Between 141.0 and 150.0, inclusive, More than 150.0 but less than 159.0, 159.0 or more
Answer: Between 105.0 and 114.0, inclusive
Question: Will the month-over-month percentage change in Turkey's consumer price index reach or exceed 3.5% in both January 2023 and February 2023?
The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported by Turkstat (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey).NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.
Tags: Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-01-16; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will any two of the following major cities in Ukraine not be within an area of "Assessed Russian-controlled Ukrainian Territory" as of 1 March 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?
The outcome will be determined using information as reported by the ISW "as of" 1 March 2023 (ISW). For the purposes of this question, the "following major cities in Ukraine" are Alchevsk, Berdiansk, Donetsk, Horlivka, Kerch, Luhansk, Lysychansk, Makiivka, Mariupol, Melitopol, Sevastopol, Sievierodonetsk, Simferopol, Yenakiieve, and Yevpatoria. Any "Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare" would be immaterial. The entire city must be out of "Assessed Russian-controlled Ukrainian Territory" to count.NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.
Tags: Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-01-16; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the number of Royal College of Nursing strike days in England in February 2023 exceed the number of strike days in January 2023?
Only strike days called by the Royal College of Nursing will count for resolution (Royal College of Nurses). A strike for part of a day would count as a day. As of launch on 18 January 2023, the RCN had planned for at least 2 days of strikes in February (6-7 February 2023) and 2 days of strikes in January (18-19 January 2023), which follows 2 days of strikes in the previous month (15 and 20 December 2022) (Guardian).NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.
Tags: Society, Health, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-01-18; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the ending stocks of crude oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in December 2022?
President Biden announced in late March 2022 that the US would release one million barrels of crude oil a day from the SPR to relieve energy prices amidst the Russian war with Ukraine (CNBC, Energy.gov). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) when first released for December 2022, expected in February 2023 (EIA). For December 2021, ending stocks totaled 593,682 thousand barrels.
Tags: Business, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-04-22; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Less than 340,000 thousand barrels, Between 340,000 thousand barrels and 400,000 thousand barrels, inclusive, More than 400,000 thousand barrels but less than 460,000 thousand barrels, Between 460,000 thousand barrels and 520,000 thousand barrels, inclusive, More than 520,000 thousand barrels but less than 580,000 thousand barrels, 580,000 thousand barrels or more
Answer: Between 340,000 thousand barrels and 400,000 thousand barrels, inclusive
Question: Between 18 January 2023 and 28 February 2023, will the UK Department of Health and Social Care announce a new increase in pay for nurses in England?
At least 51% of nurses in England must be included in the announced pay increase for it to count. A one-off payment would not count (Guardian).NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.
Tags: Society, Health, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-01-18; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 March 2023?
SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as December 2022, though obstacles remain (Economist, CNET, CNBC, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2022-11-18; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 March 2023, will Russia either officially announce the formal annexation of additional territory in Ukraine or send uniformed military forces into another country without its government's permission?
For the purposes of this question, "additional territory" means any Ukrainian territory other than territory in the oblasts of Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, or Zaporizhzhia. Forces that are not formally part of the Russian military (e.g., Wagner Group) would not count.NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2023-01-18; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Who will win the 2023 Nigerian presidential election?
Nigeria is scheduled to hold a presidential election in February 2023, with incumbent APC President Buhari term-limited (Daily Trust, US Institute of Peace, Vanguard). Nigeria uses a modified two-round system where winning in the first round requires a majority and "at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states" (BBC). The question would close upon officially announced results of the presidential election, irrespective of any judicial intervention. The suspend date would be changed to accommodate a postponement of election day to another date in 2023, but will not be extended to accommodate a runoff election. If a runoff election is required and will not take place in 2023, the question would close "A Nigerian presidential election will not take place in 2023."
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-08-26; closed: 2023-02-25
Options: The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Someone else, A Nigerian presidential election will not take place in 2023
Answer: The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate
Question: Between 18 January 2023 and 28 February 2023, will 60 or more countries in the UN General Assembly either vote against or abstain from voting on a resolution in any way condemning Russia by name?
For examples of previous resolutions in any way condemning Russia by name, please see https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3990673?ln=en and https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3965290?ln=en. Some variation of the verb "condemn" must be used in the resolution to count. In a related UN General Assembly resolution from October 2022, a total of 40 countries had either voted against the resolution (5 countries) or abstained (35 countries) (UN).NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-01-18; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: On 27 February 2023, will the most recent blog post published by the Dupuy Institute covering the 'Russo-Ukrainian War' include an estimate of the strength of Russian ground forces in and around Ukraine plus those of the Donetsk PR and the Lugansk PR to be greater than 200,000?
As of 18 January 2023, the latest blog post published by the Dupuy Institute covering the 'Russo-Ukrainian War' included an estimate of strength of Russian ground forces, plus those of the Donetsk PR and the Lugansk PR, of 184,000 (see http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2023/01/16/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-327/). "The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000." The blog will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET.NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2023-01-18; closed: 2023-02-27
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: On 27 February 2023, will the combined number of likes and retweets of the most recent @theRCN tweet as of 14 February 2023 (UK time) that contains the hashtag #FairPayforNursing exceed 4,000?
The question will be suspended on 26 February 2023 and the outcome determined using data as displayed on Twitter at approximately 11:59PM in the UK on 27 February 2023 (6:59PM ET). An example of a qualifying tweet may be found here: Twitter.NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.
Tags: Health, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-01-16; closed: 2023-02-27
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the value of the euro to Turkish lira exchange rate be higher than 22.000 on 28 February 2023?
The outcome will be determined using data as first reported by ExchangeRates.org.uk for 28 February 2023 (Exchangerates.org.uk, see "Table of 1 Euro to Turkish Lira Exchange Rate").NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-01-16; closed: 2023-02-28
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Saudi Arabia announce that it will normalize relations with the State of Israel before 1 March 2023?
Like most Arab states, Saudi Arabia does not officially recognize Israel despite some cooperation between the two countries (France 24, International Bar Association). Various Arab states recognized or agreed to normalize relations with Israel in 2020 (e.g., NY Times, CNN, NPR, CNN).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-08-19; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: On 1 March 2023, will the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) 1-week repo interest rate be below 10.5%?
The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CBRT (CBRT).NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-01-16; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will there be a pilot strike at a major US airline before 1 March 2023?
US airlines are facing the prospect of pilot strikes as labor negotiations continue (CNBC, CBS News, CNN). For the purposes of this question, the major US airlines are American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines. A strike need not include all airline pilots to count. The duration of a strike would be immaterial so long as the strike actually begins.
Tags: Business, Society, US Politics
Question opened: 2022-11-18; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will legislation generally permitting employees who work from home to itemize deductions related to home office expenses become law before 1 March 2023?
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in 2017 suspended the "business use of home" tax deduction, which meant that those working from home who were not self-employed were generally denied the ability to deduct work-from-home expenses from their taxes (CNBC, Intuit TurboTax, IRS News Release 23 September 2020, IRS Publication 587). The date the legislation would take effect would be immaterial so long as it would take effect before 2026. Legislation generally authorizing employees to make the deductions, but with exceptions and/or dollar or percentage limits, would count.
Tags: Business, Society, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-04-06; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No