jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Before 1 January 2019, which company from among Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft will be the first to reach an end-of-day market capitalization of $1 trillion?
Leading tech companies have seen rapid increases in market capitalization (Financial Times, Reuters). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" reported by Bloomberg for Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT).  If two or more companies reach an end-of-day market capitalization of $1 trillion on the same day, the question will resolve on the company with the higher market capitalization.
Tags: Business, Finance
Question opened: 2018-06-20; closed: 2018-08-02
Options: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, None of the above
Answer: Apple
Question: Between 11 April 2018 and 31 July 2018, will Chinese tariffs on any US aircraft take effect?
The first set of China's retaliatory tariffs took effect on 1 April 2018 (NY Times, Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China), and on 4 April they announced plans for further tariffs on a range of imports, including aircraft, that have not yet taken effect (CNBC). China has indicated that their implementation is dependent on whether the US follows through on its additional tariffs (Politico).
Tags: Economic Policy
Question opened: 2018-04-11; closed: 2018-08-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will it be announced that the Kaesong Industrial Complex is reopening?
The Kaesong Industrial Complex, the hallmark of peaceful engagement between North Korea and South Korea during the previous sunshine period, was closed in February 2016 after North Korea's fourth nuclear test (BBC, The Guardian). Moon Jae-In, South Korea's new President promised to seek rapprochement with North Korea, including by re-opening Kaesong (The Diplomat, The Korea Herald).
Tags: Economic Indicators, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2017-08-01; closed: 2018-07-31
Options: Before 1 November 2017, Between 1 November 2017 and 31 January 2018, inclusive, Between 1 February 2018 and 30 April 2018, inclusive, Between 1 May 2018 and 31 July 2018, inclusive, Not before 1 August 2018
Answer: Not before 1 August 2018
Question: When will Saudi Arabia announce the reopening of its land border with Qatar?
Temporary reopenings will not suffice (e.g., The Guardian). On 5 June 2017, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE cut diplomatic relations with Qatar, embargoing goods, closing borders, and requiring Qatari citizens to leave their countries (BBC, The Cipher Brief).
Tags: Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2017-11-21; closed: 2018-08-01
Options: Before 1 February 2018, Between 1 February and 30 April 2018, inclusive, Between 1 May and 31 July 2018, inclusive, Not before 1 August 2018
Answer: Not before 1 August 2018
Question: Will the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) win an overall majority of seats in the National Assembly in the 2018 general election?
Elections are scheduled to be held on 25 July 2018 and Nawaz Sharif's party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), or PML-N, remains popular despite the corruption charges leveled against Sharif (The Economist, NY Times).
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2018-06-13; closed: 2018-07-25
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 20 July 2018, will Audi sell or lease a motor vehicle with Traffic Jam Pilot?
The Society of Automotive Engineers uses six levels (zero through five) to classify the level of autonomy in vehicles (Car and Driver). Within the ongoing debate on the best development path for autonomous vehicle technology, the viability and safety of vehicles with Level 3 autonomy in contrast to Level 4 autonomy is seen as most salient (The Economist). As such, different companies are advancing different strategies (Inverse). Audi's development of Level 3 autonomy capabilities with its Traffic Jam Pilot make it a pivotal case to watch in the context of this debate (Audi, Pocket-Lint, Practical Motoring).
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2018-01-24; closed: 2018-07-20
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 21 July 2017 and 20 July 2018, will any major automaker announce a date after which they will sell only electric or hybrid vehicles?
For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" are any of the car brands or whole car companies identified in this infographic. Volvo recently announced that starting in 2019 all new models it produces will be electric or hybrid (Volvo, Forbes). Announcements that only apply to a certain market segment or geographic location will not count.
Tags: Technology
Question opened: 2017-07-21; closed: 2018-07-20
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: As of 1 July 2018, how many manufacturers will hold permits for driverless testing of autonomous vehicles in California?
For years, California has issued permits for testing of autonomous vehicles, provided that drivers remain in the car (California DMV, California DMV, The Economist). On 2 April 2018, the California DMV was authorized to approve permits for manufacturer's driverless testing of autonomous vehicles (California DMV, San Francisco Chronicle).
Tags: Technology
Question opened: 2018-04-18; closed: 2018-07-01
Options: 0, Between 1 and 3, inclusive, Between 4 and 6, inclusive, Between 7 and 9, inclusive, 10 or more
Answer: 0
Question: Between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2018, how many reports of traffic accidents involving an autonomous vehicle will the California Department of Motor Vehicles receive?
Outcome will be determined by California DMV data. Multiple companies have been approved to test autonomous vehicles on public roads in California. According to the California Code of Regulations Section 227.44, companies shall report within 10 days any accident originating from the operation of an autonomous vehicle on a public road that resulted in property damage, bodily injury or death. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and resolved on 20 July to allow reports covering late June to be included.
Tags: Technology, Society
Question opened: 2017-12-08; closed: 2018-07-01
Options: Fewer than 10, Between 10 and 19, inclusive, Between 20 and 29, inclusive, Between 30 and 39, inclusive, 40 or more
Answer: Between 20 and 29, inclusive
Question: Before 1 July 2018, will Tesla announce that it will build a factory to manufacture electric vehicles in China?
In its quest for global growth, Tesla is looking to expand its manufacturing capacity. There is speculation that it might build a new factory in China, but China's requirements for foreign automakers partnering with Chinese companies may prove an obstacle (Bloomberg, Electrek). An announcement by Tesla regarding a factory that only manufactures component parts of an electric vehicle will not count (e.g. Electrek).
Tags: Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2017-10-20; closed: 2018-07-01
Options: Yes, manufacturing without a Chinese partner, Yes, manufacturing with a Chinese partner, No
Answer: No
Question: How many NATO members will spend 2% or more of their GDP on defense in 2018?
Outcome will be determined by the first NATO defense expenditure report that includes data for 2018 (NATO). Estimates for 2018 will count. According to the July 2016 report (Table 3 NATO), which included an estimate for 2016 spending, five countries spent 2% or more of their GDP on defense.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-03-21; closed: 2018-07-10
Options: Less than 5, 5, 6 to 8, inclusive, More than 8
Answer: 5
Question: Before 1 October 2018, will the UN Security Council pass a resolution imposing an arms embargo on South Sudan?
A non-mandatory embargo will not count. With warnings of ethnic cleansing and war-induced famine, the US and others have been pushing for an arms embargo (ECR, Aljazeera, NY Times).  Examples of mandatory arms embargoes imposed by the UNSC include the Central African Republic in 2013 (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)), Yemen in 2015 (SIPRI), and Libya in 2011 (SIPRI).
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-05-09; closed: 2018-07-13
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Which country will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup?
The 2018 FIFA World Cup is scheduled to take place in Russia from 14 June to 15 July 2018 (The Economist). Thirty two teams qualified for the tournament and are set to compete (FIFA). For the latest rankings, see: FIFA. To enable forecasting during the game, this question will remain open through the end of the championship game but will only be scored through 12:30 pm ET.
Tags: Society, Sports
Question opened: 2018-02-07; closed: 2018-07-15
Options: Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, France, Germany, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Spain, Switzerland, Another country
Answer: France
Question: Will Tesla stock (TSLA:US) close below $200 on 29 June 2018?
A combination of missed production targets, a deadly accident, high levels of debt, and a downgraded credit rating have put stress on Tesla's stock price (CNBC). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg.
Tags: Finance
Question opened: 2018-04-11; closed: 2018-06-29
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 12 May 2017 and 1 July 2018, will two or more states ratify the Equal Rights Amendment?
Question opened: 2017-05-12; closed: 2018-06-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: In US v. California, will the District Court grant any preliminary injunctions against enforcement of California's sanctuary laws"?
On 6 March, the Department of Justice filed a lawsuit with the United States District Court for the Eastern District of California over three so-called "sanctuary laws" by the State of California, Assembly Bill 450, Senate Bill 54, and Assembly Bill 103 (Politico, USA Today, The Sacramento Bee). A preliminary injunction granted that covers part of a law subject to the lawsuit will count as "yes" for that entire law.
Tags: Society, US Policy
Question opened: 2018-06-06; closed: 2018-07-05
Options: Yes, against Assembly Bill 450 only, Yes, against Senate Bill 54 only, Yes, against Assembly Bill 103 only, Yes, against two or more of the bills, No
Answer: Yes, against Assembly Bill 450 only
Question: In June 2018, what will be the percentage change from a year ago for U.S. total private average hourly earnings of all employees?
Question opened: 2018-05-16; closed: 2018-06-30
Options: Less than 2.35%, Between 2.35% and 2.50%, inclusive, More than 2.50% but less than 2.65%, Between 2.65% and 2.80%, inclusive, More than 2.80%
Answer: Between 2.65% and 2.80%, inclusive
Question: Before 1 July 2018, will the European Council announce the opening of formal membership negotiations with any candidate countries or designate any new country as an official candidate for membership?
Question opened: 2018-05-09; closed: 2018-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2019, will Scott Pruitt cease to be Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency?
Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt faces multiple federal inquiries into his management practices at the agency (Bloomberg, CNN).
Tags: Environment, US Politics
Question opened: 2018-06-20; closed: 2018-07-06
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many Chevrolet Bolt EV's will be sold between January and June 2018?
Chevrolet's new electric vehicle, the Chevrolet Bolt EV, is being rolled out country wide in the fall of 2017 (The Green Car Report). Outcome will be determined by the 2018 total listed for Chevrolet Bolt EV on the InsideEV website (InsideEV) after the June 2018 data has been released.
Tags: Technology
Question opened: 2017-08-18; closed: 2018-07-01
Options: Less than 10,000, 10,001 - 15,000, 15,001 - 20,000, 20,001 - 25,000, More than 25,000
Answer: Less than 10,000
Question: What will be the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar on 29 June 2018?
Question opened: 2018-05-16; closed: 2018-06-28
Options: Less than 1.90%, Between 1.90% and 2.00%, inclusive, More than 2.00% but less than 2.10%, Between 2.10% and 2.20% inclusive, More than 2.20%
Answer: More than 2.00% but less than 2.10%
Question: What will be the closing spot price of an ounce of gold on 29 June 2018?
Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing spot price reported by Bloomberg.
Tags: Finance
Question opened: 2018-05-16; closed: 2018-06-28
Options: Less than $1,200, Between $1,200 and $1,250, inclusive, More than $1,250 but less than $1,300, Between $1,300 and $1,350, inclusive, More than $1,350
Answer: More than $1,250 but less than $1,300
Question: Between 9 May 2018 and 29 June 2018, how many Cabinet-level officials in the Trump Administration will cease to hold a cabinet-level position?
The Trump administration has seen turnover increasing for its top officials (The Washington Post).  Cabinet-level positions refer to the Vice President, the White House Chief of Staff, the 15 Cabinet members (Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs, and the Attorney General), and 7 other cabinet-level officials (the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, the United States Trade Representative, the Representative of the United States to the United Nations, the Administrator of the Small Business Administration, the Director of National Intelligence, and the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency). Cabinet members who cease to hold a cabinet-level position to take another cabinet-level position will not count for the resolution of this question.
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2018-05-09; closed: 2018-06-29
Options: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more
Answer: 0
Question: Of the seven Russian CEOs and government leaders listed below, how many will cease to hold their current positions by 1 July 2018?
This question refers to the following CEOs and government leaders: Dmitry Medvedev (Prime Minister), Dmitry Kozak (Deputy Prime Minister), Sergey Shoygu (Defense Minister), Alexander Bastrykin (Investigative Committee leader), Nikolai Patrushev (Head, Security Council of Russia), Igor Sechin (Rosneft CEO), and Alexey Miller (Gazprom CEO). In the event that one of the listed officials moves to a different top position as a cabinet member (The Russian Government) or CEO of Rosneft, Gazprom, SberBank, or VTB, it will not count toward the total. Since mid-2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin has removed from prominent positions four close allies: Sergei Ivanov, Andrei Belyaninov, Viktor Ivanov, and Vladimir Yakunin (NY Times, NY Times).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2017-03-21; closed: 2018-07-01
Options: 0 to 1, 2 to 3, 4 to 5, 6 to 7
Answer: 0 to 1
Question: Before 1 July 2018, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?
Tesla’s new Model 3, its most affordable car model, is targeted at the mass market (Tesla, Fortune). With more than 400,000 Model 3 reservations on the books, Tesla aims to ramp up production quickly, with a stated goal of delivering 100,000-200,000 Model 3s in the second half of 2017 (Teslarati).
Tags: Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2017-07-21; closed: 2018-07-01
Options: Less than 50,000, More than 50,000 but less than 100,000, Between 100,000 and 200,000 inclusive, More than 200,000 but less than 300,000, 300,000 or more
Answer: Less than 50,000
Question: How many fatalities will result from fighting between the armed forces of Azerbaijan and either the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army or the armed forces of Armenia between 20 June 2017 and 1 July 2018?
All fatalities resulting from the fighting, including civilians and third party actors will count. The once “frozen” conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh has shown signs of escalation (Reuters, Aljazeera, Council on Foreign Relations). The answer options represent different orders of magnitude of conflict escalation. Fatality estimates often vary across sources and are typically reported in ranges. If the fatality estimates from open source media coverage produce a range that crosses two of the answer bins, GJ will generally use the higher end of the range to determine the resolution of the question, but will also consider the number of sources that put the high end of the range within each bin as well as how much of the total range falls within each bin.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-06-20; closed: 2018-06-30
Options: Fewer than 10, 10-99, 100-999, 1,000 or more
Answer: 10-99
Question: Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2018?
The Iranian nuclear deal established a Joint Commission to adjudicate disputes between the IAEA and Iran over access to undeclared nuclear facilities (Iran Watch).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-09-12; closed: 2018-06-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela?
Maduro faces a political crisis in Venezuela (Reuters, Washington Post). In the event that Maduro reportedly disappears or flees the capital, a three-week waiting period will be observed, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Maduro returns in the interim, the question will remain open.
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2017-06-06; closed: 2018-07-01
Options: Before 1 October 2017, Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive,, Between 1 January 2018 and 31 March 2018, inclusive,, Between 1 April 2018 and 30 June 2018, Not before 1 July 2018
Answer: Not before 1 July 2018
Question: On 29 June 2018, how many public hydrogen fueling stations will be available in the United States?
Hydrogen fueling infrastructure is expanding (U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC)). Air Liquide, in partnership with Toyota, has announced the creation of a chain of 12 hydrogen fueling stations in the Northeast, stretching from New York to Boston (NY Times). Honda has also announced that an additional 36 stations will be built in California (LA Times). The State of California has earmarked $200 million for as many as 100 new hydrogen stations in the next several years, and car manufacturers and energy providers are working together to make it happen (Green Tech Media). This question will be resolved using data for public hydrogen fueling stations from the AFDC.
Tags: Technology, Society, Environment
Question opened: 2018-02-28; closed: 2018-06-29
Options: Fewer than 45, Between 45 and 55, inclusive, More than 55
Answer: Fewer than 45
Question: How many of the following teams will not qualify for the 2018 FIFA World Cup's Round of 16: Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Portugal, Russia, Spain, and Switzerland?
"The 2018 FIFA World Cup starts with the group stage, and the top two teams from each group qualify for the Round of 16. For more information about the World Cup and its matches, please visit FIFA.
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2018-05-09; closed: 2018-06-28
Options: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more
Answer: 1
Question: Will al-Shabaab attack a US diplomatic facility in Africa before 1 July 2018?
Al-Shabaab has conducted attacks in Somalia and Kenya (BBC, ABC News, The Guardian).
Tags: Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2017-07-25; closed: 2018-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 July 2018, will Ashraf Ghani cease to be president of Afghanistan?
The stability of Afghanistan's government remains tenuous (LA Times, Council on Foreign Relations, The Diplomat). In the event that Ghani reportedly disappears or flees the capital, GJI will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Ghani returns in the interim, the question will remain open.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2017-11-21; closed: 2018-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 July 2018, will a date be set for a referendum on Northern Ireland's governance status?
During the U.K. Brexit referendum, a majority of Northern Irish voted to remain in the EU (Newsweek). The United Kingdom's planned exit from the European Union, and Sinn Fein's strong showing in the recent election, has intensified the issue of Northern Ireland's governance status (Irish News, Financial Times). The 1998 Good Friday Agreement gives Northern Ireland the right to hold a referendum, or "border poll" on unification with Ireland, and some have floated the idea of an independence referendum (BBC).
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2017-03-21; closed: 2018-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 July 2018, will Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte proclaim martial law nationwide?
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte recently proclaimed martial law in Mindanao and nearby islands (Financial Times, The Diplomat), and has considered nationwide martial law (Aljazeera, Vocativ).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2017-08-15; closed: 2018-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: On 29 June 2018, how many public DC Fast Charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States?
The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC Fast Charging stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes.  This question will be resolved using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center.  Data on public DC Fast Charging stations can be found by clicking on "more search options" and selecting only "DC Fast" on the "Charger types" drop-down menu. The relevant number is "electric stations."
Tags: Technology
Question opened: 2017-09-08; closed: 2018-06-29
Options: Less than 2,400, Between 2,400 and 2,700, inclusive, Between 2,701 and 3,100, inclusive, More than 3,100
Answer: Less than 2,400
Question: Before 1 July 2018, will the Council of the European Union adopt a directive on taxation of digital business activities?
Question opened: 2018-05-16; closed: 2018-06-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will S&P, Moody's, or Fitch change Chile's long-term foreign currency rating before 29 June 2018?
Question opened: 2018-05-16; closed: 2018-06-28
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: In Janus v. American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, Council 31, will the Supreme Court rule that mandatory payment of any agency fees by non-union government employees is unconstitutional?
Mark Janus, an Illinois government employee, is asking the Supreme Court to overrule Abood v. Detroit Board of Education (SCOTUS Blog, Justia US Law, The Atlantic, The Supreme Court of the United States). Under Abood, unions are allowed to collect agency fees fron non-union employees to cover costs related to collective-bargaining. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.
Tags: US Policy
Question opened: 2018-01-24; closed: 2018-06-27
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Who will win the 2018 NBA Most Valuable Player Award?
Question opened: 2018-06-06; closed: 2018-06-25
Options: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans, James Harden, Houston Rockets, LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Answer: James Harden, Houston Rockets
Question: What will be the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. for the week ending June 22?
Question opened: 2018-05-16; closed: 2018-06-22
Options: Less than 4.75%, Between 4.75% and 4.85%, inclusive, More than 4.85% but less than 4.95%, Between 4.95% and 5.05%, inclusive, More than 5.05%
Answer: Between 4.75% and 4.85%, inclusive