jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 8 November 2022, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?
Gas prices are expected to play a major role in 2022 midterm election campaigns (CBS News, Politico, CNN). The question will be suspended on 7 November 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 8 November 2022 (AAA, see "Today's AAA National Average" graphic).
Tags: Society, Economic Indicators, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2022-06-24; closed: 2022-11-08
Options: Less than $3.00, Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive, More than $3.50 but less than $4.00, Between $4.00 and $4.50, inclusive, More than $4.50 but less than $5.00, Between $5.00 and $5.50, inclusive, More than $5.50 but less than $6.00, Between $6.00 and $6.50, inclusive, More than $6.50
Answer: More than $3.50 but less than $4.00
Question: Before 8 November 2022, will American basketball player Brittney Griner leave Russia?
Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, the US is reportedly negotiating for the release of Brittney Griner and other Americans imprisoned in Russia (CNN, ABC News).
Tags: Foreign Policy, US Politics, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-08-12; closed: 2022-11-08
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 8 November 2022?
President Volodymyr Zelensky has  pushed for greater NATO involvement in the defense of Ukraine (BBC, CBS News). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (NATO). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered "national military forces and/or law enforcement" (e.g., AP, BBC).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-03-11; closed: 2022-11-08
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?
After a delayed start, the 2022 Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season is scheduled to end on 5 October 2022, with the playoffs to follow (USA Today, MLB). The question will be scheduled to suspend on 7 November 2022 and will be adjusted once the 2022 playoff schedule is released.
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2022-05-06; closed: 2022-11-06
Options: Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Another team, No team will win the 2022 World Series
Answer: Houston Astros
Question: How many games will the Houston Astros win in the 2022 World Series?
Game 1 of the best of seven MLB World Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Houston Astros is scheduled for 28 October 2022 (CBS Sports).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2022-10-28; closed: 2022-11-06
Options: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
Answer: 4
Question: What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 31 October 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?
The outcome will be determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 4 June 2022, Biden's approval rating was 40.8%. The data for 31 October 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 November 2022.
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2022-06-10; closed: 2022-10-31
Options: Lower than 35.0%, Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive, Higher than 40.0% but lower than 45.0%, Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive, Higher than 50.0%
Answer: Higher than 40.0% but lower than 45.0%
Question: What will be the annual percentage change in the average hourly earnings of US private sector employees in October 2022?
Labor shortages have put pressure on wages in the US (CNBC, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private," expected on 4 November 2022 (FRED, adjust the slider under the chart to include latest data). For August 2021, the annual percentage change was 4.07194%.
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-11-26; closed: 2022-10-31
Options: An increase of less than 2.0%, An increase of between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive, An increase of more than 3.0% but less than 4.0%, An increase of between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, An increase of more than 5.0% but less than 6.0%, An increase of 6.0% or more
Answer: An increase of between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive
Question: Will the value of the FAO Cereals Price Index for October 2022 be higher than it was for September 2022?
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Indicies fell from highs reached in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but they remain elevated (CNBC, UN). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022  and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for Cereals for September 2022 and October 2022 as reported in November 2022 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of 1 September 2022, the value for the Cereals Price Index for July 2022 was 147.3. To download historical nominal data, click either "Excel" or "CSV" above the chart titled "FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms."
Tags: Business, Society, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-09-12; closed: 2022-11-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many seats will Likud win in the 2022 Israeli legislative elections?
Disagreements within the ruling coalition led to a dissolution of the Knesset and the scheduling of legislative elections on 1 November 2022, the fifth in less than four years (BBC, France 24). If Likud forms an electoral alliance, the total number of seats for the alliance's list would count for resolution (e.g., France 24).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-07-22; closed: 2022-11-01
Options: Fewer than 27, Between 27 and 31, Between 32 and 36, More than 36
Answer: Between 32 and 36
Question: Will more than 2,500,000 federal firearm background checks be initiated in the US in October 2022?
Background checks for gun purchases have fallen from historic highs in 2020 and 2021, but remain above pre-pandemic levels (National Interest). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI (FBI.gov). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first reported for October 2022, expected in early November 2022. For October 2021, the FBI reported 2,593,168 firearm background checks.
Tags: Business, Society, US Politics
Question opened: 2022-09-26; closed: 2022-11-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will voter turnout be in the 2022 presidency elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia)?
The country of Bosnia is scheduled to hold elections on 2 October 2022 amid high political and ethnic tensions and the prospect of a potential Croat boycott (Al Jazeera, US News & World Report, Euractiv). Bosnia has a unique executive system, where the presidency consists of three members: "one Bosniac and one Croat, each directly elected from the territory of the Federation [of Bosnia and Herzegovina], and one Serb directly elected from the territory of the Republika Srpska" (BiH Constitution, see Article V). The outcome will be determined using results as published by the Central Election Commission (Central Election Commission of Bosnia). In the 2018 election, the turnout was 50.44% (Central Election Commission of Bosnia - 2018 Election Results, calculated by dividing the number of "Valid ballots" [1,692,316] by the "Number of voters" [3,355,429]). If the election is rescheduled to a date before 1 January 2023, the suspend date will be changed to accommodate the new date. If the election is postponed to a date after 31 December 2022, the question would close "Presidency elections will not be held in 2022" upon the announcement of that postponement.
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-06-10; closed: 2022-10-02
Options: Less than 44.0%, Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive, More than 48.0% but less than 52.0%, Between 52.0% and 56.0%, inclusive, More than 56.0%, Presidency elections will not be held in 2022
Answer: More than 48.0% but less than 52.0%
Question: At close of business on 2 November 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 21 September 2022?
The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its November meeting is scheduled for 1-2 November 2022.
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-06-10; closed: 2022-11-02
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Higher
Question: Before 1 November 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least ten million student loan borrowers?
Democrats continue to push President Biden to cancel most, if not all, federal student loan debt (CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Nerd Wallet). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.
Tags: Finance, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-04-29; closed: 2022-11-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screen in October 2022?
The aviation industry continues to recover from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout (Daily Mail, Travel Pulse). The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (TSA).
Tags: Business, Health, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-04-15; closed: 2022-11-01
Options: Fewer than 50 million, Between 50 million and 58 million, inclusive, More than 58 million but fewer than 66 million, Between 66 million and 74 million, inclusive, More than 74 million
Answer: Between 66 million and 74 million, inclusive
Question: Before 1 November 2022, will a snap election be called for the Northern Ireland Assembly?
A new Northern Ireland executive has yet to be formed since election in May 2022, and the UK's Secretary of State for Northern Ireland has said he will have to call a snap election on 28 October 2022 if a new executive is not formed by then (Politico, BelfastLive, Sky News, Northern Ireland Executive).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-10-04; closed: 2022-11-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the end-of-day price of Bitcoin on 31 October 2022?
The outcome will be determined using the last price dated 31 October 2022 (PT) as reported by CoinDesk (CoinDesk, set chart to "1W").
Tags: Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2022-10-10; closed: 2022-10-31
Options: Less than $12,000.00, Between $12,000.00 and $16,000.00, inclusive, More than $16,000.00 but less than $20,000.00, Between $20,000.00 and $24,000.00, inclusive, More than $24,000.00 but less than $28,000.00, Between $28,000.00 and $32,000.00, inclusive, More than $32,000.00
Answer: Between $20,000.00 and $24,000.00, inclusive
Question: Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Brazil?
Brazil's next presidential election could lead to a showdown between incumbent President Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (France 24, Superior Electoral Court). Brazil's next presidential election is scheduled for 2022 with the first round of voting to take place on 2 October 2022, and a runoff is scheduled for 30 October 2022 if needed.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-12-03; closed: 2022-10-30
Options: Jair Bolsonaro, João Doria, Ciro Gomes, Sérgio Moro, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Another candidate
Answer: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Question: Before 1 November 2022, will Twitter announce that Parag Agrawal has ceased or will cease to be the company's sole CEO?
Parag Agrawal replaced Twitter founder Jack Dorsey as the company's CEO in November 2021 and is now facing a potential takeover bid from Elon Musk (CNBC, NPR, Quartz). The addition of a co-CEO would count, and the date Agrawal would cease to be CEO would be immaterial.
Tags: Business, Technology, Leader Entry/Exit
Question opened: 2022-04-22; closed: 2022-10-28
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter close before 1 January 2023?
After Elon Musk announced his bid to buy Twitter in April 2022, various developments have put the deal into question (Twitter, CNN, The Hill). When Twitter announced that it accepted Musk's offer, it stated that the transaction "is expected to close in 2022" (SEC - EDGAR). The question would close early upon the official termination of the deal per filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Tags: Business, Technology, Society
Question opened: 2022-06-03; closed: 2022-10-28
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will Iraq form a government before 21 February 2023?
After selecting a president more than a year after the last general election, Iraqi officials are attempting to form a government amid continued political gridlock (France24, House of Commons Library, Al-Arabiya). A government would be deemed formed upon the Council of Representatives approving individual ministers and the ministerial program in accordance with the Iraqi constitution (Iraqi Constitution, see Article 76, Section Four). The question would close "No" upon the calling of new parliamentary elections in the country without a new government being formed.
Tags: Society, Leader Entry/Exit, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-10-21; closed: 2022-10-27
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 1 January 2024, will Elizabeth "Liz" Truss cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?
Liz Truss was appointed as the UK's prime minister on 6 September 2022, and faces a number of challenges, including Brexit, possible recession, and the death of Queen Elizabeth II (Gov.uk - Truss Biography, US News & World Report, Politico, NY Post).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-09-09; closed: 2022-10-25
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 1 April 2023, will Liz Truss cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?
Since becoming the UK prime minister in early September 2022, Liz Truss is facing a number of challenges, including blowback from an economic plan and political tensions in Northern Ireland (NPR, NBC News, BBC).
Tags: Economic Policy, Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-10-04; closed: 2022-10-25
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: To which political party will the next prime minister of Italy belong after the 2022 general election?
Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned in July 2022 amid tensions within his coalition government (CNBC, NPR, France 24, US News & World Report, Politico - Italy Poll of Polls). The next general election is scheduled for 25 September 2022. The question will be suspended on 25 September 2022, the scheduled date of the next general election, and the outcome determined once a new prime minister is sworn in. If no new prime minister has been sworn in and a second general election is called, the question would close "None of the above." The appointment of a new caretaker prime minister would not count.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-07-29; closed: 2022-09-25
Options: Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia), Democratic Party (Partito Democratico), Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle), Forward Italy (Forza Italia), League (Lega), None of the above
Answer: Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)
Question: What will be the price of palladium on 21 October 2022, according to the London Metal Exchange?
Palladium prices have surged since Russia, one of the world's largest producers, invaded Ukraine (Deutsche Welle, Investing.com, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using "USD-PM" price data (per troy ounce) for 21 October 2022 when first published by the London Metal Exchange (LME).
Tags: Business, Technology, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-04-22; closed: 2022-10-21
Options: Less than 1600.00, Between 1600.00 and 2000.00, inclusive, More than 2000.00 but less than 2400.00, Between 2400.00 and 2800.00, inclusive, More than 2800.00 but less than 3200.00, Between 3200.00 and 3600.00, inclusive, More than 3600.00
Answer: Between 1600.00 and 2000.00, inclusive
Question: What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 14 October 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?
The question will be suspended on 13 October 2022 and the outcome determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 28 August 2022, Biden's approval rating was 42.3%. The data for 14 October 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 17 October 2022.
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2022-09-12; closed: 2022-10-14
Options: Lower than 38.0%, Between 38.0% and 42.0%, inclusive, Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%, Between 46.0% and 50.0%, inclusive, Higher than 50.0%
Answer: Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%
Question: What will be the closing value of the euro to US dollar exchange rate on 14 October 2022?
Amid the war in Ukraine and concerns about energy supplies in Europe, the euro to US dollar exchange rate hit parity for the first time in two decades on 13 July 2022, meaning that one euro was worth one dollar (CNBC, AP). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-07-15; closed: 2022-10-14
Options: Lower than 0.85, Between 0.85 and 0.90, inclusive, Higher than 0.90 but lower than 0.95, Between 0.95 and 1.00, inclusive, Higher than 1.00 but lower than 1.05, Between 1.05 and 1.10, inclusive, Higher than 1.10 but lower than 1.15, 1.15 or higher
Answer: Between 0.95 and 1.00, inclusive
Question: Will Iraq's parliament elect a new President of the Republic before 6 November 2022?
After parliamentary elections were held in Iraq in October 2021, the country has yet to, among other things, elect a new president (Voice of America, Al Jazeera, The National). The question would close "No" upon the calling of new parliamentary elections in the country without a new president having been elected. Replacement of the president due to vacancy in accordance with the constitution would not count (Iraqi Constitution).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-08-05; closed: 2022-10-13
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Between 16 September 2022 and 31 October 2022, will anti-government protests in Iran result in 200 or more protester fatalities, according to Iran Human Rights?
Widespread protests have broken out in Iran after a woman who was arrested for breaking hijab rules died in police custody (NPR, Al-Monitor, CBS News). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. As of 22 September 2022, Iran Human Rights reported that 31 protesters had been killed (Iran Human Rights). The outcome will be determined using available information no later than 4 November 2022.
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-09-23; closed: 2022-10-12
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2022 as of 11 October 2022?
Arctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the northern hemisphere that's at least 15% sea ice, has trended down in past decades (Guardian, Yale Climate Connections). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) "Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 11 October 2022 (Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph, About Charctic Data). Other site data would be immaterial. The lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2021 was 4.724 million sq. km on 16 September.
Tags: Environment
Question opened: 2022-04-29; closed: 2022-10-11
Options: Less than 3.5 million sq. km, Between 3.5 million sq. km and 4.0 million sq. km, inclusive, More than 4.0 million sq. km but less than 4.5 million sq. km, Between 4.5 million sq. km and 5.0 million sq. km, inclusive, More than 5.0 million sq. km
Answer: Between 4.5 million sq. km and 5.0 million sq. km, inclusive
Question: Between 8 April 2022 and 8 October 2022, will NATO or a NATO member state publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of having provided lethal aid to Russia after 24 February 2022 for use in Ukraine?
As the war in Ukraine continues, the US and others have voiced concerns over China possibly providing support for Russia's war effort (BBC, ABC News). For the purposes of this question, "lethal aid" means any weapon, ammunition, or other equipment or material that is designed to inflict serious bodily injury or death (Cornell - 10 USC §2557, effectively the inverse of 10 USC §2557(d)(1)(B)). Examples of lethal aid include bullets, warplanes, missiles, and armed drones, but would not include surveillance equipment, body armor, medical supplies, intelligence, etc. An accusation need not explicitly characterize aid as "lethal aid" to count so long as the accusation includes enough detail to ascertain that the aid given was lethal, but the accusation must assert that the lethal aid was provided for use by Russia in Ukraine. Recent examples of an accusation of lethal aid being provided include Russia and China arming the military junta in Myanmar and Turkey providing armed drones to Ethiopia (Deutsche Welle, US News & World Report).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-04-08; closed: 2022-10-08
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Which driver will win the 2022 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?
Formula 1 auto racing is one of the most popular sports in the world (F1 Chronicle). The final grand prix of the year is scheduled for 20 November 2022 in Abu Dhabi (Formula1 - Driver Standings, Formula1 - Schedule).
Tags: Business, Technology, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2022-05-20; closed: 2022-10-09
Options: Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc, Sergio Perez, George Russell, Carlos Sainz, Max Verstappen, Another driver
Answer: Max Verstappen
Question: Will the closing value of the euro to US dollar exchange rate be higher than 1.00 on 7 October 2022?
Amid the war in Ukraine and concerns about energy supplies in Europe, the euro to US dollar exchange rate hit parity for the first time in two decades on 13 July 2022, meaning that one euro was worth one dollar (CNBC, AP). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-09-12; closed: 2022-10-07
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No