jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy (BBC, Deutsche Welle, CNN).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-10-23; closed: 2021-04-23
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Where will Dubai International Airport (DXB) rank among the busiest airports in the world by passenger number for 2020, according to the Airports Council International (ACI)?
In 2018, DBX served 89,189,387 passengers, ranking it as the third busiest airport in the world by passenger number according to ACI (International Airport Review, ACI). The outcome will be determined using the first available ACI data for busiest airports rankings by passenger number in 2020, expected to be released in 2021 (ACI).
Tags: Business, Health
Question opened: 2020-05-21; closed: 2021-01-01
Options: 1st to 3rd, 4th to 6th, 7th to 9th, 10th or lower
Answer: 10th or lower
Question: When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?
COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control (CBC). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC (PHAC). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the ".CSV" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname."
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2021-01-22; closed: 2021-04-16
Options: Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021
Answer: Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021
Question: What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?
Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February (Coinbase Blog, SEC, Coindesk, Axios). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2021-03-05; closed: 2021-04-14
Options: Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion, Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021
Answer: Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive
Question: How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” (CDC). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-03-03; closed: 2021-03-31
Options: Fewer than 70,000,000, Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive, More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000, Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive, More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000, Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive, More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000, Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive, More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000, Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive, More than 115,000,000
Answer: Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive
Question: Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years (Economist, IMF - June 2020, World Economic Forum). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website (IMF), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report (IMF - October 2020).The Superforecaster version of this question is at The Economist dashboard.
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-12-04; closed: 2021-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?
To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” (Supremecourt.gov). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court (Oyez, SCOTUSblog, Lexology, ZDNet). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
Tags: Business, Technology, US Policy
Question opened: 2020-09-04; closed: 2021-04-05
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-03-03; closed: 2021-03-27
Options: Fewer than 4,000, Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive, More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000, Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive, More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000, Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive, More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000, Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive, More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000, 20,000 or more
Answer: More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000
Question: How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?
The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week ending 27 March 2021 (Healthdata.gov). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-03-03; closed: 2021-03-27
Options: Fewer than 15,000, Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive, More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive, More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000, Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive, More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000, Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive, More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000, 95,000 or more
Answer: Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive
Question: How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-03-03; closed: 2021-03-27
Options: Fewer than 100,000, Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive, More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000, Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive, More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000, Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive, More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive, More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000, 900,000 or more
Answer: More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000
Question: How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?
The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation (CNN, Scientific American, Lancet). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 (Africa CDC).
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-06-26; closed: 2021-04-01
Options: Fewer than 2.5 million, Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive, More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million, Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive, More than 20.0 million
Answer: Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive
Question: How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?
The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on (Economist, FDA, FDA).
Tags: Technology, Health
Question opened: 2020-11-27; closed: 2021-04-01
Options: Zero, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more
Answer: 3
Question: Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?
Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea (CNN, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, Diplomat). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2020-06-12; closed: 2021-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?
Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability (Guardian, Al Jazeera, Newsweek).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-11-13; closed: 2021-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?
As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed (European Council, European Parliament, European Commission). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements (Ernst & Young, European Commission). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-08-28; closed: 2021-04-01
Options: Before 1 October 2020, Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021
Answer: Not before 1 April 2021
Question: When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?
Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country (BBC, Economist, France24, AP).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-10-02; closed: 2021-04-01
Options: Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021
Answer: Not before 1 April 2021
Question: Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?
Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators (Reuters, NPR, CNBC). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather "lying low" (CNBC, Newsweek). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2021-01-22; closed: 2021-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?
The infection rate (also known as Rt) "is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect" (COVID Act Now - Glossary). The outcome will be determined using data from covidactnow.org at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "INFECTION RATE." As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2021-01-22; closed: 2021-03-31
Options: 7 or fewer, Between 8 and 14, Between 15 and 21, Between 22 and 28, 29 or more
Answer: 29 or more
Question: Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?
Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years (NY Times, Times of Israel, Foreign Policy).
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-12-22; closed: 2021-03-23
Options: Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party, Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party, There will not be an election before 1 April 2021
Answer: Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party
Question: How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?
The 2021 Salvadoran legislative election is scheduled for 28 February 2021 and all 84 seats in the Legislative Assembly are to be contested (21votes.com, El Salvador Perspectives). New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) is a political party recently created by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele (NY Times, World Politics Review). A seat gained as part of a Coalition Pact (Pacto de Coalición) will count toward the resolution of this question (Tribunal Supremo Electoral [in Spanish], Gato Encerrado [in Spanish]).
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-12-31; closed: 2021-02-28
Options: Fewer than 35, Between 35 and 50, inclusive, More than 50 but fewer than 65, 65 or more
Answer: More than 50 but fewer than 65
Question: At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?
The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2020-11-06; closed: 2021-03-17
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: Will be the end-of-day price of a Dogecoin on 15 March 2021 be higher as compared to the end-of-day price on 15 February 2021?
Originally created as a joke, the Dogecoin cryptocurrency has seen an incredible rise in value due to pushes made on Reddit and elsewhere (Dogecoin, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 15 March 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk (Coindesk). The last reported price for Dogecoin for 15 February 2021 was $0.058727.
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2021-02-16; closed: 2021-03-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high (AP, Bloomberg, BBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-01-06; closed: 2021-03-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?
After several delays and being approved by the Senate of the Republic, the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis is scheduled for a vote by Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies sometime between February and April 2021 (Forbes, Wall Street Journal, Xataka [in Spanish], El Economista [in Spanish]). The approval of an amended version of the legislation approved by the Mexican Senate would count. Whether the legislation actually becomes law is immaterial, and procedural votes other than final approval by the Chamber would not count.
Tags: Business, Society, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-12-31; closed: 2021-03-10
Options: Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021, Not before 1 May 2021
Answer: Between 1 March and 31 March 2021
Question: How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week starting 21 February 2021?
The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week starting 21 February 2021 (Healthdata.gov). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 22 February 2021 through 28 February 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-02-03; closed: 2021-02-27
Options: Fewer than 45,000, Between 45,000 and 60,000, inclusive, More than 60,000 but fewer than 75,000, Between 75,000 and 90,000, inclusive, More than 90,000 but fewer than 105,000, Between 105,000 and 120,000, inclusive, More than 120,000
Answer: Fewer than 45,000
Question: How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-02-03; closed: 2021-02-27
Options: Fewer than 14,000, Between 14,000 and 16,000, inclusive, More than 16,000 but fewer than 18,000, Between 18,000 and 20,000, inclusive, More than 20,000 but fewer than 22,000, Between 22,000 and 24,000, inclusive, More than 24,000
Answer: Fewer than 14,000
Question: How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-02-03; closed: 2021-02-27
Options: Fewer than 600,000, Between 600,000 and 750,000, inclusive, More than 750,000 but fewer than 900,000, Between 900,000 and 1,050,000, inclusive, More than 1,050,000 but fewer than 1,200,000, Between 1,200,000 and 1,350,000, inclusive, More than 1,350,000
Answer: Fewer than 600,000
Question: Will France grant the China Global Television Network (CGTN) a license to broadcast in France before 1 January 2022?
In February 2021, the UK Office of Communications (Ofcom) revoked CGTN’s license to broadcast in the country, therefore cutting its access to other countries in Europe (Ofcom, Deutsche Welle, Council of Europe [not the EU]). The Financial Times has reported that CGTN approached French regulators in December 2020 about seeking a license to broadcast in France, which could return CGTN to the UK and elsewhere (Financial Times, Reuters, Politico.eu). The date a license would take effect would be immaterial.
Tags: Business, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-02-26; closed: 2021-03-03
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?
The initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove gasoline prices under $2.00 per gallon across much of the country (Newsweek). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for  "Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices" (EIA).
Tags: Health, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-11-17; closed: 2021-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher?
As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load (CDC). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "DAILY NEW CASES PER 100K." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-12-23; closed: 2021-03-01
Options: Zero, Between 1 and 3, Between 4 and 6, Between 7 and 9, 10 or more
Answer: Zero