jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 31 December 2021, according to Bloomberg?
The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-07-30; closed: 2021-12-31
Options: Less than $30.00, Between $30.00 and $45.00, inclusive, More than $45.00 but less than $60.00, Between $60.00 and $75.00, inclusive, More than $75.00 but less than $90.00, More than $90.00
Answer: More than $75.00 but less than $90.00
Question: What will be the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on 31 December 2021?
On 30 September 2021, sports broadcaster Al Michaels asked members of the Halftime Show panel on CNBC for the over/under on the Dow Jones Industrial Average for 34,000 as of 31 December 2021 (CNBC). Traders Josh Brown and Pete Najarian provided responses. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC).
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-10-07; closed: 2021-12-30
Options: Lower than 33,000.00, Between 33,000.00 and 34,000.00, inclusive, Higher than 34,000.00 but lower than 35,000.00, Between 35,000.00 and 36,000.00, inclusive, Higher than 36,000.00 but lower than 37,000.00, 37,000.00 or more
Answer: Higher than 36,000.00 but lower than 37,000.00
Question: Will Rishi Sunak cease to be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer before 1 January 2022?
There have been reports of tensions between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Sunak (Sky News, Daily Mail, Gov.uk - Rishi Sunak, Evening Standard).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-08-20; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2022, will Kais Saied cease to be the president of Tunisia?
The future of Tunisia's democracy is uncertain after President Kais Saied invoked emergency powers, suspended parliament, and dismissed the prime minister (Reuters, Middle East Eye, Guardian, Al Jazeera).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit
Question opened: 2021-08-13; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Haiti hold a presidential election before 1 January 2022?
Haiti's presidential election is currently planned for 26 September 2021, along with legislative elections and a constitutional referendum (Reuters). The assassination of President Jovenel Moïse on 7 July 2021 has called the timeline into question, though some officials have publicly committed to keeping the date (CNN, NY Times). If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, a runoff will be held about two months later in November (UN). If there is a second round, the question would close as of the date the second round of voting is held.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-07-16; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022?
After success for his party in June 2021 elections, Prime Minister Ahmed is facing a variety of challenges in different regions of the country, including Tigray (NPR, BBC). For the purposes of this question, "extraconstitutional" means events not conforming to the legal and political processes as laid out in the constitution of Ethiopia (e.g., a coup) (Ethiopian Constitution). The death of Ahmed by any means would close the question "Yes." For the purposes of this question, the House of Federation's approval of allowing Ahmed to stay in office after his mandate was to expire due to the COVID-19 pandemic is considered to have been constitutional (Ethiopian News Agency, Al Jazeera). In the event the status of the prime minister is not immediately clear, e.g., see President Erdogan during the 2016 attempted coup in Turkey (BBC), the question would not be closed unless and until his being deposed is clear from credible open source reporting.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-07-30; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?
Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium (Atlantic Council, BBC, Washington Post, Federation of American Scientists).
Tags: Foreign Policy, US Politics, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-02-12; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022?
President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring policy options to impose mandatory carbon pricing in the United States (Harvard Environmental & Energy Law Program, The Hill, European Parliament). For the purposes of this question, a carbon pricing mechanism would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system (World Bank). Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the EU Emissions Trading System (European Commission), the California Cap-and-Trade Program (California Air Resources Board), and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI).
Tags: Business, Environment, Economic Policy, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-04-30; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?
President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 (Britannica). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 (Newsweek, Al Jazeera).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit
Question opened: 2021-02-10; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?
The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 (NPR, Supreme Court). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics
Question opened: 2021-01-29; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: 0, 1, 2, 3 or more
Answer: 0
Question: What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?
Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2021-01-15; closed: 2021-12-31
Options: Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion
Answer: Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive
Question: When will the US lift the suspension of entry for noncitizens who have been present in South Africa during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US?
After South Africa announced the discovery of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant named Omicron by WHO, President Biden imposed travel restrictions on various southern Africa countries, including South Africa (Whitehouse.gov - Proclamation, BBC, WHO). Listed exceptions, changes to listed exceptions, and/or a change to the duration of the 14-day period would be immaterial.
Tags: Technology, Health, Foreign Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-12-03; closed: 2021-12-31
Options: Before 1 January 2022, Between 1 January 2022 and 31 March 2022, Not before 1 April 2022
Answer: Before 1 January 2022
Question: When will total cases of COVID-19 in Canada reach 2 million or more, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC)?
While COVID-19 cases in Canada have begun to fall again, concerns remain for a resurgence with the onset of winter (CBC). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by PHAC (PHAC). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the ".CSV" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname." The question will close on available data no later than 26 April 2022.
Tags: Technology, Health
Question opened: 2021-10-20; closed: 2021-12-27
Options: Before 24 December 2021, Between 24 December and 22 January 2022, Between 23 January 2022 and 21 February 2022, Between 22 February and 23 March 2022, Between 24 March 2022 and 22 April 2022, Not before 23 April 2022
Answer: Between 24 December and 22 January 2022
Question: What will be the value of the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for October 2021?
Home prices have been surging in the US in 2021 (CNN, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and the outcome determined when monthly index data for October 2021 are first available, typically in December.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-07-09; closed: 2021-11-01
Options: Lower than 250.00000, Between 250.00000 and 260.00000, inclusive, Higher than 260.00000 but lower than 270.00000, Between 270.00000 and 280.00000, inclusive, Higher than 280.00000
Answer: Between 270.00000 and 280.00000, inclusive
Question: When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next reach or exceed 200,000?
The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the CDC (CDC). The red line is the 7-day moving average of cases, which last breached 200,000 on 18 January 2021. Data will be accessed for resolution no later than 6 May 2022.
Tags: Technology, Health
Question opened: 2021-09-17; closed: 2021-12-26
Options: Before 1 November 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Between 1 January 2022 and 28 February 2022, Between 1 March 2022 and 30 April 2022, Not before 1 May 2022
Answer: Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021
Question: What will be the value of the shipping-costs benchmark Baltic Exchange Dry Index as of 24 December 2021?
As economies emerge from the worst of the pandemic, costs of global shipping have skyrocketed in 2021 (NASDAQ, Hellenic Shipping News, Investopedia, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using Baltic Exchange Dry Index data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-10-08; closed: 2021-12-24
Options: Lower than 2,500.00, Between 2,500.00 and 4,000.00, inclusive, Higher than 4,000.00 but lower than 5,500.00, Between 5,500.00 and 7,000.00, inclusive, Higher than 7,000.00 but lower than 8,500.00, Between 8,500.00 and 10,000.00, inclusive, Higher than 10,000.00
Answer: Lower than 2,500.00
Question: Will the James Webb telescope be launched successfully before 1 January 2022?
The James Webb Space Telescope, scheduled for launch 18 December 2021, will be the most powerful space telescope ever launched (Vox, NASA). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful Ariane 5 main stage separation (Arianespace, WebTelescope.org).
Tags: Technology
Question opened: 2021-09-24; closed: 2021-12-25
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: When will the 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the UK next fall below 15,000?
Despite having one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, the UK began facing a new surge in COVID-19 cases in late June 2021 (NPR, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using 7-day average data as reported by the UK government under "Cases by date reported" (Coronavirus.data.co.uk). If the question is still open as of 17 December 2021, data available for resolution will be evaluated on 24 December 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-07-21; closed: 2021-12-18
Options: Before 11 September 2021, Between 11 September 2021 and 29 October 2021, Between 30 October 2021 and 17 December 2021, Not before 18 December 2021
Answer: Not before 18 December 2021
Question: When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?
The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.617.2) became the dominant variant in the United States over the summer of 2021, and there are fears that another, potentially more dangerous, variant could follow (New Atlas, Newsweek). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States, grouped in two-week intervals, here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. For the period ending 17 July 2021, the Delta variant and three sublineages (e.g., AY.1) represented a combined 83.5% percent share of COVID lineage in the US as of the launch of this question. Data from the “Nowcast” option would count, and Delta sublineages would not count.
Tags: Technology, Health
Question opened: 2021-08-06; closed: 2021-12-19
Options: A two-week period ending 25 September 2021 or earlier, A two-week period ending between 9 October 2021 and 20 November 2021, A one-week period ending between 27 November 2021 and 15 January 2022, A one-week period ending between 22 January 2022 and 12 March 2022, Not before 13 March 2022
Answer: A one-week period ending between 27 November 2021 and 15 January 2022
Question: How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo will the Port of Los Angeles report for November 2021?
In recent months, the global supply chain has been affected by, among other things, disrupted factory production, increased transportation costs, foreign port closures, and congested domestic ports (CNN, Los Angeles Times, Time). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome determined using November 2021 data as reported by the Port of Los Angeles for TEUs, which is a standardized measurement of volume for cargo containers (Port of Los Angeles). For January 2021, the Port of Los Angeles reported 835,516.20 TEUs.
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-09-03; closed: 2021-12-01
Options: Fewer than 800,000, Between 800,000 and 900,000, inclusive, More than 900,000 but fewer than 1,000,000, 1,000,000 or more
Answer: Between 800,000 and 900,000, inclusive
Question: Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Chile?
On 18 July 2021, Gabriel Boric and Sebastian Sichel won their respective primaries, becoming the leading candidates in Chile's 2021 presidential election (Rio Times, Reuters, Bloomberg). Chile's next presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting to take place on 21 November 2021, with a runoff scheduled for 19 December 2021 if needed (AS/COA).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-07-21; closed: 2021-12-19
Options: Gabriel Boric, Sebastián Sichel, Another candidate, There will not be a presidential election in Chile before 1 January 2022
Answer: Gabriel Boric
Question: Which team will win the 2021 Formula One World Constructors' Championship?
Mercedes and Red Bull Racing-Honda have, as of the launch of this question, 478.5 and 477.5 points, respectively, in the 2021 Formula One World Constructors' Champions standings, with only a four races remaining (Formula1.com, Sky Sports). The question will be suspended on 11 December 2021, the day before the final race in the season, and the outcome determined once official awards are given at the FIA Prize Giving Ceremony.
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2021-11-12; closed: 2021-12-12
Options: Mercedes, Red Bull Racing-Honda, Another result
Answer: Mercedes
Question: Which driver will win the 2021 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?
Formula 1 auto racing is one of the most popular sports in the world (F1 Chronicle). The final grand prix of the year is scheduled for 12 December 2021 in Abu Dhabi (Formula 1).
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2021-07-16; closed: 2021-12-12
Options: Lewis Hamilton, Sergio Perez, Max Verstappen, Another driver
Answer: Max Verstappen
Question: At close of business on 15 December 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 3 November 2021?
The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its December meeting is scheduled for 14-15 December 2021.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2021-07-30; closed: 2021-12-15
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?
Rising global food prices are a growing concern (Al Jazeera). The outcome will be determined using monthly IMF data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome determined when monthly IMF data for November 2021 are available, typically in December.
Tags: Economic Indicators, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-06-17; closed: 2021-12-01
Options: Lower than $220.00/MT, Between $220.00/MT and $260.00/MT, inclusive, Higher than $260.00/MT but lower than $300.00/MT, Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive, Higher than $340.00/MT
Answer: Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive
Question: Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?
Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) (Federal Register, Council on Foreign Relations, Asian Society Policy Institute).
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-02-12; closed: 2021-12-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the annual change in the UK's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for November 2021?
Like much of the world, inflation concerns are running high in the UK (CNBC, BBC). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the "CPI ANNUAL RATE" as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) when first released, typically in December 2021 (ONS).
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-07-21; closed: 2021-12-01
Options: Less than 1.7%, Between 1.7% and 2.2%, inclusive, More than 2.2% but less than 2.9%, Between 2.9% and 3.4%, inclusive, More than 3.4% but less than 4.1%, 4.1% or more
Answer: 4.1% or more
Question: Before 1 January 2023, will a Latin American or Caribbean nation cease to formally recognize Taiwan?
In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) (Newsweek). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including nine in Latin America and Caribbean (Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-10-29; closed: 2021-12-09
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 14 December 2021, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?
The Biden administration has announced that it would support waiving intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines (USTR.gov, NPR, Reuters). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states (WTO,  SDG Knowledge Hub).
Tags: Business, Technology, Health, US Politics, Non-US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-05-14; closed: 2021-12-14
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How far will the UAE national football team advance in the FIFA Arab Cup 2021?
The FIFA Arab Cup is scheduled for 30 November 2021 to 18 December 2021 (Global Sports Archive, IloveQatar.net, FIFA). If the Arab Cup is canceled or postponed beyond 2021, the question would be voided.
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2021-09-10; closed: 2021-12-10
Options: Group Stage, Quarterfinals, Semi-finals (3rd or 4th Place), Finals (1st or 2nd Place)
Answer: Quarterfinals
Question: Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?
In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority (Reuters). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen (The Atlantic, Brookings Institute).
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2020-07-31; closed: 2021-12-10
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 9 December 2021, according to CoinMarketCap?
The outcome will be determined using the last value dated 9 December 2021 (PT) as reported by CoinMarketCap under "Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap" with "Zoom" set to "7d" the morning of 10 December 2021 (CoinMarketCap).
Tags: Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2021-07-09; closed: 2021-12-09
Options: Less than $1.0 trillion, Between $1.0 trillion and $1.5 trillion, inclusive, More than $1.5 trillion but less than $2.0 trillion, Between $2.0 trillion and $2.5 trillion, inclusive, More than $2.5 trillion
Answer: Between $2.0 trillion and $2.5 trillion, inclusive
Question: Will Canada announce a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, China, before 1 February 2022?
The US government announced that it would hold a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Olympics to protest various policies of the People's Republic of China, with other countries reportedly considering the same (ABC News, Forbes, CTV News). A diplomatic boycott means no official representatives from Canada would attend any events of the Beijing 2022 Games, scheduled to begin on 4 February 2022, but would not necessarily affect athlete participation (Olympics.com, Voice of America). Canada announcing a diplomatic boycott as part of a group (e.g., the G7) would count.
Tags: Society, Sports, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-12-07; closed: 2021-12-08
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Following the 2021 German Bundestag elections, which parties will be part of the new government?
With Chancellor Angela Merkel stepping down, her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and Germany in general face an uncertain political future (Euronews, Deutsche Welle). The election is scheduled to take place on 26 September 2021 (Bundeswahlleiter.de, Politico.eu). Members of other political parties joining a government would be immaterial. If, by 31 December 2021, no election is held or new elections are called with only a caretaker government put in place, the question will close as "No government will be formed before 31 December 2021." "The Green Party" means the Alliance '90/The Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen).
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-04-16; closed: 2021-09-26
Options: The CDU but not the Green Party, The Green Party but not the CDU, Both the CDU and the Green Party, Neither the CDU nor the Green Party, No government will be formed before 31 December 2021
Answer: The Green Party but not the CDU