jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Will Representative Dean Phillips cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Democratic nomination for US president before 9 June 2024?
Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips has continued his challenge to President Biden's quest for the 2024 Democratic nomination despite overwhelming odds (USA Today). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Phillips no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2024-02-09; closed: 2024-03-06
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: When will Nikki Haley cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Republican nomination for US president?
Haley is pushing hard to stay in the race for the Republican nomination as endorsements for Trump add up (ABC News, CBS News). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Haley no longer seeks the Republican Party nomination for president or that she is fully suspending her campaign.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2024-01-22; closed: 2024-03-06
Options: Before 6 March 2024, Between 6 March 2024 and 18 April 2024, Between 19 April 2024 and 1 June 2024, Between 2 June 2024 and 14 July 2024, Not before 15 July 2024
Answer: Between 6 March 2024 and 18 April 2024
Question: What percentage of the vote will Rep. Dean Phillips receive in the 2024 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary?
With Marianne Williamson dropping out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, the final noteworthy candidate competing against President Biden is Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips (Politico, Ballotpedia). The Minnesota Democratic primary is scheduled for 5 March 2024 (270 to Win, Minnesota Public Radio).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2024-02-16; closed: 2024-03-05
Options: Less than 5.0%, At least 5.0%, but less than 10.0%, At least 10.0%, but less than 15.0%, At least 15.0%, but less than 20.0%, 20.0% or more
Answer: At least 5.0%, but less than 10.0%
Question: Will a Republican place in the top two in the primary for the special US Senate election for California in 2024?
Polls indicate that Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff is leading the race for California's nonpartisan primary to fill the Senate seat vacated due to the death of Dianne Feinstein, but Republican Steve Garvey has been consistently polling well (KTLA, Politico). The nonpartisan primary is scheduled for 5 March 2024 (Ballotpedia).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2024-01-05; closed: 2024-03-05
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 9 April 2024, will Senator Krysten Sinema publicly announce whether she is running in the US Senate election for Arizona in 2024?
Krysten Sinema, who was first elected to the US Senate in 2018 as a Democrat and subsequently became an independent, has not announced whether she will run for reelection (Axios, NBC News). Whether she announces that she will seek a particular party's nomination is immaterial.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2024-01-05; closed: 2024-03-05
Options: Yes, and she will announce that she is running, Yes, and she will announce that she is not running, No
Answer: Yes, and she will announce that she is not running
Question: What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 5 March 2024, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?
Gas prices in the US fell throughout the fall of 2024, but upside risks remain (CNBC, The Hill). The question will be suspended on 4 March 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 5 March 2024 (AAA, see "Today's AAA National Average" graphic).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-11-24; closed: 2024-03-05
Options: Less than $2.00, Between $2.00 and $2.45, inclusive, More than $2.45 but less than $2.80, Between $2.80 and $3.15, inclusive, More than $3.15 but less than $3.50, Between $3.50 and $3.85, inclusive, More than $3.85 but less than $4.20, Between $4.20 and $4.65, inclusive, More than $4.65
Answer: More than $3.15 but less than $3.50
Question: In Trump v. Anderson, will the Supreme Court rule that the Colorado Supreme Court erred in ordering Donald Trump excluded from the 2024 presidential primary ballot?
On 19 December 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that Donald Trump was disqualified from becoming president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment due to his role in the 6 January 2021 riot at the Capitol Building (CBS News, Colorado Supreme Court - Anderson v. Griswold). The US Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump's appeal and has scheduled oral arguments for 8 February 2024 (Axios, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda, US Policy
Question opened: 2024-01-12; closed: 2024-03-04
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: In Trump v. Anderson, how many US Supreme Court Justices will vote that the Colorado Supreme Court erred in ordering Donald Trump excluded from the 2024 presidential primary ballot?
On 8 February 2024, the US Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Donald Trump's appeal of the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to remove him from the state presidential ballot under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment due to his role in the 6 January 2021 riot at the Capitol Building (C-SPAN - Oral Arguments in Trump v. Anderson, AP, Axios, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "0 or 1." The legal bases asserted by a Justice are immaterial. If the opinion of the Court is per curiam, any Justices not named in any concurrence or dissent will be deemed to have voted for the opinion (Cornell - Per Curiam).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda, US Policy
Question opened: 2024-02-09; closed: 2024-03-04
Options: 0 or 1, 2 or 3, 4, 5, 6 or 7, 8 or 9
Answer: 8 or 9
Question: What will be the "net sympathy" among Americans for Israelis versus Palestinians in 2024, according to Gallup's World Affairs survey?
Support for Israel among Americans remains high, but it has slipped among different segments of the population (NPR, Gallup - 16 March 2023). The question will be suspended on 6 February 2024 and the outcome determined using survey data as reported by Gallup, expected in the first quarter of 2024 (Gallup - Middle East). The "net sympathy" will be calculated by subtracting the "more sympathetic" percentage for Palestinians from the "more sympathetic" percentage for Israelis. In 2023, "more sympathies" for Israel was 54%, and for Palestinians 31%, creating a "net sympathy" for Israelis of 23 points. The full question posed by Gallup has historically been, "In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians?" to which 54% responded "Israelis" in 2023.
Tags: Society, Foreign Policy, US Politics, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2023-11-10; closed: 2024-02-07
Options: Fewer than 10 points or negative, At least 10 points, but fewer than 20 points, At least 20 points, but fewer than 30 points, At least 30 points, but fewer than 40 points, 40 points for more
Answer: At least 20 points, but fewer than 30 points
Question: Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 March 2024?
SpaceX is preparing to launch its next orbital flight test but is still awaiting a license from the FAA in order to proceed as of 28 December 2023 (Ars Technica, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2023-12-29; closed: 2024-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will Egypt's official exchange rate for the Egyptian pound to the US dollar next reach or exceed 34.5000?
Egypt has devalued its currency, the pound, thrice since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but has not adopted a flexible exchange rate as it agreed to with the IMF in 2022 (US News & World Report, The National). The outcome will be determined using official exchange rate data as reported by the Central Bank of Egypt (Central Bank of Egypt, see "Sell" column). Egypt's presidential election is scheduled for 10-12 December 2023, with a runoff scheduled for 8-10 January 2024 if necessary (Egyptian Streets). The dates in the answer bins will not be changed, regardless of any change in the election schedule announced by the Egyptian government.
Tags: Business, Finance, Society, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-10-27; closed: 2024-03-01
Options: Before 13 December 2023, Between 13 December 2023 and 10 January 2024, Between 11 January 2024 and 29 February 2024, Not before 1 March 2024
Answer: Not before 1 March 2024
Question: Before 1 March 2024, will a new nationwide national or public health emergency related to COVID-19 be declared by the US federal government?
On 31 January 2020, HHS Secretary Azar declared a public health emergency under the Public Health Service Act related to COVID-19, which was repeatedly extended through 11 May 2023 (HHS.gov - COVID Public Health Emergency, HHS.gov - End of COVID Public Health Emergency). President Trump later declared a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act on 13 March 2020 (Trump White House Archives). A declaration must be made pursuant to either the Public Health Service Act or the National Emergencies Act to count (PHE.gov - Public Health Service Act, Ballotpedia - National Emergencies Act). The question would close upon the date of the declaration, irrespective of a determination that a national or public health emergency existed since a prior date.
Tags: Society, Health, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-09-01; closed: 2024-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the US Supreme Court agree to hear Donald Trump's appeal from the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC Circuit) regarding presidential immunity?
On 6 February 2024, the DC Circuit affirmed a lower court ruling that former President Trump did not have presidential  immunity from criminal prosecution for events related to the 6 January 2021 riot at the Capitol Building (The Hill, DC Circuit - US v. Trump Opinion, Fox News - US v. Trump Judgment and Stay, ABC News). Trump has asked the Court to continue a stay against further trial court proceedings and is expected to file a petition for certiorari with the Supreme Court for review soon after the launch of this question (NPR, Supreme Court - Trump Application for Stay Pending the Filing of a Petition for Writ of Certiorari). Whether the Court grants a stay is immaterial, and any disposition of a case heard by the Court is immaterial. The question would close upon the Supreme Court denying Trump's petition for review. If, for whatever reason, Trump does not file a petition for certiorari before 6 March 2024, the question will close "No" as of 6 March 2024. If the petition for certiorari is still pending as of 29 March 2024, the closing date will be extended.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda, US Policy
Question opened: 2024-02-12; closed: 2024-02-28
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What percentage of the vote will Nikki Haley receive in the 2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary?
As of the end of January 2024, Nikki Haley was the last major challenger to Donald Trump for the GOP presidential nomination (Politico, Newsweek). The Michigan Republican primary is scheduled for 27 February 2024 (270 to Win).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2024-02-02; closed: 2024-02-27
Options: Less than 10.0%, At least 10.0%, but less than 20.0%, At least 20.0%, but less than 30.0%, At least 30.0%, but less than 40.0%, 40.0% or more
Answer: At least 20.0%, but less than 30.0%
Question: What percentage of the vote will Joe Biden receive in the 2024 Michigan Democratic presidential primary?
There are three candidates on the Michigan Democratic primary ballot: President Joe Biden, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, and Marianne Williamson (Michigan Secretary of State). The Michigan Democratic primary is scheduled for 27 February 2024 (270 to Win).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2024-02-02; closed: 2024-02-27
Options: Less than 65.0%, At least 65.0%, but less than 75.0%, At least 75.0%, but less than 85.0%, At least 85.0%, but less than 95.0%, 95.0% or more
Answer: At least 75.0%, but less than 85.0%
Question: What percentage of new, light-duty zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) sold in California in 2023 will be Tesla vehicles, according to the California Energy Commission (CEC)?
The California car market is by far in the lead for ZEV sales in the US (Teslarati, San Francisco Standard, Autoweek). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data for all of 2023 as reported by the CEC (CEC). Historical data may be retrieved using the "Year" and "Make" filters under "SELECT FILTERS." For 2022, the CEC reported Tesla sales of 212,586 vehicles and total light-duty ZEV sales of 345,818, for a Tesla percentage of ZEV sales of 61.47%. An xlsx file with historical data current as of the launch of this question may be downloaded here: California ZEV Sales 2011-2023YTD.xlsx.
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, Environment
Question opened: 2023-08-25; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Less than 48.0%, Between 48.0% and 54.0%, inclusive, More than 54.0% but less than 60.0%, Between 60.0% and 66.0%, inclusive, More than 66.0%
Answer: Between 48.0% and 54.0%, inclusive
Question: Before 26 February 2024, will a NATO member invoke either Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by Belarus?
Tensions have risen between Russian ally Belarus and the bordering NATO member states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland as the Belarusian military and Wagner Group forces began drills in the west of the country (Guardian, NBC News, Euronews). Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which created NATO, states that any member can call for consultations when they believe they are under threat, while Article 5 covers collective defense in the event of an armed attack against a member (NATO - Article 4, NATO - Article 5). Article 4 was last invoked in February 2022 by several NATO member states in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine (CNBC TV18).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2023-08-25; closed: 2024-02-26
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What percentage of the vote will Nikki Haley receive in the 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary?
Nikki Haley, who was governor of South Carolina for two terms, is fighting for her presidential campaign's survival as Donald Trump stacks up endorsements (WHYY, ABC News). The South Carolina Republican primary is scheduled for 24 February 2024 (270 to Win).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2024-01-24; closed: 2024-02-24
Options: Less than 10.0%, At least 10.0%, but less than 20.0%, At least 20.0%, but less than 30.0%, At least 30.0%, but less than 40.0%, At least 40.0%, but less than 50.0%, 50.0% or more
Answer: At least 30.0%, but less than 40.0%
Question: What will be the price of natural gas in Europe on 16 February 2024?
With the second winter since Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaching and with supply disruptions in Australia and the Mediterranean partially offset by high storage levels, observers are keeping a close eye on the Dutch benchmark for natural gas in the EU (Euronews, CNN, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 15 February 2024 and the outcome determined using Dutch TTF Gas data (euros per megawatt hour) as reported in the US by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to "6M").
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2023-10-13; closed: 2024-02-16
Options: Less than €25.00, Between €25.00 and €40.00, inclusive, More than €40.00 but less than €55.00, Between €55.00 and €70.00, inclusive, More than €70.00 but less than €90.00, Between €90.00 and €115.00, inclusive, More than €115.00
Answer: Less than €25.00
Question: How many software as a service (SaaS) companies will be founded in the US in 2023, according to Crunchbase?
SaaS companies host applications and make them available to customers over the Internet (Digital Guardian). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Crunchbase (Crunchbase, parameters set in link). The filters should be set to 1) "Headquarters Location" to United States," 2) Industry" set to "SaaS," and 3) "Custom Range Date" set to "1/1/2013 - 12/31/2023." Data will be accessed for resolution on 15 February 2024. As of 31 March 2023, Crunchbase reported that 170 SaaS companies were founded in the US in 2022.
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2023-03-31; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Fewer than 80, Between 80 and 160, inclusive, More than 160 but fewer than 260, Between 260 and 380, inclusive, More than 380 but fewer than 520, 520 or more
Answer: More than 380 but fewer than 520
Question: Who will win the special election for New York's 3rd Congressional District in 2024?
Representative George Santos was expelled from the House of Representatives on 1 December 2023, creating a vacancy to be filled by a special election in early 2024 (CBS News, Politico, CBS New York).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-12-08; closed: 2024-02-13
Options: The Democratic Party candidate, The Republican Party candidate, Someone else
Answer: The Democratic Party candidate
Question: When will Kais Saied flee Tunisia or cease to be its president?
Since President Saied consolidating power after dismissing parliament in 2021, Tunisia has faced a series of economic, political, and social problems (Al-Monitor, AP, The National).  Whether or not Saied has fled Tunisia will be determined using credible open source media reporting.
Tags: Society, Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-05-11; closed: 2024-02-12
Options: Before 12 August 2023, Between 12 August 2023 and 11 November 2023, Between 12 November 2023 and 11 February 2024, Not before 12 February 2024
Answer: Not before 12 February 2024
Question: Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LVIII in 2024?
Super Bowl LVIII is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 in Las Vegas, NV (NFL).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-12-08; closed: 2024-02-11
Options: Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Another team
Answer: Kansas City Chiefs
Question: How many total international overnight guests will visit Dubai in 2023, according to the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism?
Tourism levels in Dubai have recovered from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, and has implemented new policies to attract for visitors to the emirate (BBC, Skift). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data from the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism (Dubai Tourism). In 2021, 7.28 million total international overnight guests visited Dubai, while 16.73 million visited in 2019 (Dubai Tourism - December 2021 Report, Dubai Tourism - 2019 Annual Report, Dubai Tourism - Research and Insights).
Tags: Business, Entertainment, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-02-02; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Fewer than 10.0 million, Between 10.0 and 13.0 million, inclusive, More than 13.0 but fewer than 16.0 million, Between 16.0 and 19.0 million, inclusive, More than 19 million but fewer than 22.0 million, 22.0 million or more
Answer: Between 16.0 and 19.0 million, inclusive
Question: Will President Joe Biden win at least 80.0% of the vote in the 2024 Nevada Democratic primary?
There are 13 Democratic candidates on the Nevada Democratic primary ballot, including President Joe Biden and Marianne Williamson (Nevada Secretary of State, KRNV). The Nevada Democratic primary is scheduled for 6 February 2024 (270 to Win).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2024-01-17; closed: 2024-02-06
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: In Donald Trump's appeal before the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC Circuit), will the DC Circuit rule that President Trump is immune from prosecution for the criminal charges against him in the DC District Court?
After the US Supreme Court denied Trump's appeal for it to rule on his claims of presidential immunity that were denied by the district court, the DC Circuit is scheduled to hear oral arguments on 9 January 2024 (SCOTUSblog, AP, NPR). The DC Circuit is expected to hand down its decision in the coming months, but if it does not and the case is otherwise disposed (e.g., dismissal), the question will close as "No." If the DC Circuit decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." If the DC Circuit rules that Trump is immune from prosecution for some, but not all, of the criminal charges, the question will close "No." Appeals and litigation subsequent to a ruling or announcement, including a rehearing en banc, are immaterial (Cornell).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda, US Policy
Question opened: 2024-01-05; closed: 2024-02-06
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Nikol Pashinyan cease to be the prime minister of Armenia before 6 February 2024?
Azerbaijan's ultimate conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan with an ethnic Armenian majority, in September 2023 has put great pressure on the government in Yerevan (Politico, Al Jazeera, NEWS.am). Pashinyan staying on in a caretaker prime minister role subsequent with his resignation as prime minister would still count as Pashinyan ceasing to be prime minister (Constitution of Armenia, see Article 149, France 24).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-10-06; closed: 2024-02-06
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What percentage of the vote will President Joe Biden receive in the 2024 South Carolina Democratic primary?
There are three candidates on the South Carolina Democratic primary ballot: President Joe Biden, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, and Marianne Williamson (South Carolina Democratic Party). The South Carolina Democratic primary is scheduled for 3 February 2024 (South Carolina Election Commission).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2024-01-17; closed: 2024-02-03
Options: Less than 50.0%, At least 50.0%, but less than 60.0%, At least 60.0%, but less than 70.0%, At least 70.0%, but less than 80.0%, At least 80.0%, but less than 90.0%, 90.0% or more
Answer: 90.0% or more
Question: Will Representative Dean Phillips cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Democratic nomination for US president before 3 February 2024?
Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips announced that he would challenge President Biden for the Democratic nomination for president in 2024 (ABC News, Politico). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Phillips no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-11-03; closed: 2024-02-03
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No