jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Philippines from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many gigawatts direct current (GWdc) of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity will be installed in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of 2019?
Despite impressive growth, the solar energy market faces some uncertainty in the near future (Solar Power World, Financial Times). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and closed when the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) releases its "2019 Year in Review" report, typically around the middle of March (SEIA). The archive of past reports can be found by clicking the "+" next to "Solar Market Insight Report Archives". In the second quarter of 2019, the SEIA reported that 2.1 GWdc of solar PV had been installed (SEIA).
Tags: Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2019-11-15; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: 2.0 GWdc or less, More than 2.0 GWdc but less than 2.6 GWdc, Between 2.6 GWdc and 3.0 GWdc, inclusive, More than 3.0 GWdc
Answer: More than 3.0 GWdc
Question: Who will win the 2020 Illinois Democratic primary?
The Illinois primary is scheduled for 17 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-21; closed: 2020-03-17
Options: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else
Answer: Joe Biden
Question: Who will win the 2020 Florida Democratic primary?
The Florida primary is scheduled for 17 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-21; closed: 2020-03-17
Options: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else
Answer: Joe Biden
Question: Before 15 March 2020, will the parliament of New Zealand pass a bill that would create a national gun register?
New Zealand passed various gun control measures after the March 2019 attacks in Christchurch (CNN, Radio New Zealand). Additional gun control legislation that, among other things, provides for a new national gun register was introduced in September 2019, but is facing resistance (Parliament of New Zealand, Newsroom, Reuters).
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2019-10-11; closed: 2020-03-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Bernie Sanders win a majority of Democratic pledged delegates on Super Tuesday?
Fourteen states, one U.S. territory, and "Democrats Abroad" are scheduled to hold their Democratic primaries & caucuses on 3 March 2020, known as "Super Tuesday" (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the majority of pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-07; closed: 2020-03-03
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many fatalities caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 1 June 2020?
The COVID-19 outbreak that began in late 2019 has caused more fatalities than the 2002-03 SARS outbreak (CNN, CNBC, WHO, The Hill). As of 19 February 2020, WHO has reported 2,009 deaths caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO and inclusive of fatalities reported before this question's launch (WHO).
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-02-21; closed: 2020-03-16
Options: Less than 2,500, Between 2,500 and 3,500, inclusive, More than 3,500 but less than 4,500, Between 4,500 and 5,500, inclusive, More than 5,500
Answer: More than 5,500
Question: Who will win the 2020 California Democratic primary?
The California primary is scheduled for "Super Tuesday" on 3 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-14; closed: 2020-03-03
Options: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else
Answer: Bernie Sanders
Question: Who will win the 2020 Missouri Democratic primary?
The Missouri primary is scheduled for 10 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-21; closed: 2020-03-10
Options: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else
Answer: Joe Biden
Question: Who will win the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary?
The Michigan primary is scheduled for 10 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-21; closed: 2020-03-10
Options: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else
Answer: Joe Biden
Question: Between 13 December 2019 and 1 May 2020, will either Moody's or S&P downgrade Bolivia's credit rating?
Amid political turmoil in the South American country, Fitch Ratings downgraded Bolivia's long-term credit rating from BB- to B+ (Reuters, Fitch Ratings). In early December 2019, Moody's announced that it was putting Bolivia's rating under review (Moody's). As of 13 December 2019, Moody's rating was Ba3 and S&P's rating was BB- (Trading Economics, Wolf Street). The question will resolve based on a change to the long-term foreign currency credit rating. Any changes to the outlook or other ratings for Bolivia would be immaterial.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2019-12-20; closed: 2020-03-10
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Who will win the 2020 Colorado Democratic primary?
The Colorado primary is scheduled for "Super Tuesday" on 3 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-14; closed: 2020-03-03
Options: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else
Answer: Bernie Sanders
Question: When will total cases of Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) in California reach 25 or more?
The first case of COVID-19 infection in the state of California was confirmed by the CDC on 26 January 2020 (NBC Bay Area, CDC). As of 20 February 2020, there were eight qualifying cases in California (NBC News, Washington Post). The outcome will be determined using open source data and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch. Instances of cases in individuals brought from outside the state to be held in quarantine in California would not count.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-02-21; closed: 2020-03-04
Options: Before 1 March 2020, Between 1 March 2020 and 31 March 2020, Between 1 April 2020 and 30 April 2020, Between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2020, Not before 1 June 2020
Answer: Between 1 March 2020 and 31 March 2020
Question: Who will win the 2020 Massachusetts Democratic primary?
The Massachusetts primary is scheduled for "Super Tuesday" on 3 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-14; closed: 2020-03-03
Options: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else
Answer: Joe Biden
Question: Who will win the 2020 Texas Democratic primary?
The Texas primary is scheduled for "Super Tuesday" on 3 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-14; closed: 2020-03-03
Options: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else
Answer: Joe Biden
Question: Who will win the 2020 Minnesota Democratic primary?
The Minnesota primary is scheduled for "Super Tuesday" on 3 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-14; closed: 2020-03-03
Options: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else
Answer: Joe Biden
Question: Who will win the 2020 North Carolina Democratic primary?
The North Carolina primary is scheduled for "Super Tuesday" on 3 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-14; closed: 2020-03-03
Options: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else
Answer: Joe Biden
Question: Who will win the 2020 Virginia Democratic primary?
The Virginia primary is scheduled for "Super Tuesday" on 3 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-14; closed: 2020-03-03
Options: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else
Answer: Joe Biden
Question: Before 13 July 2020, will the United States and Afghan Taliban sign a peace agreement?
The U.S. and Taliban were seemingly close to a peace agreement in September 2019, but talks abruptly ended after a Taliban attack (Economist). Talks restarted in December 2019 (NBC News, Al Jazeera).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2019-12-20; closed: 2020-02-29
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Who will win the 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary?
The South Carolina primary is scheduled for 29 February 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-01-31; closed: 2020-02-29
Options: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Tom Steyer, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else
Answer: Joe Biden
Question: Which horse will win the Saudi Cup?
Saudi Arabia is scheduled to host a new horse race on 29 February 2020, the Saudi Cup, which is billed as the richest horse race ever (CNN, US Racing, Saudi Cup).
Tags: Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2019-11-29; closed: 2020-02-29
Options: Game Winner, Gronkowski, Maximum Security, McKinzie, Midnight Bisou, Tacitus, Thunder Snow, None of the above
Answer: Maximum Security