jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Will Bernardo Arévalo be inaugurated as President of Guatemala before 16 January 2024?
Bernardo Arévalo won the August 2023 Guatemalan presidential election and is due to be inaugurated on 14 January 2024, but he is facing various obstacles from state institutions (CNN, Axios, El País, France 24, US Mission to Org. of American States).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-11-10; closed: 2024-01-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will federal legislation waiving Section 230 immunity with regard to the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) become law before 12 January 2024?
The US Congress is considering various measures to regulate the growth and use of AI, including waiving immunity under Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 for generative AI (Axios, US News & World Report, Senate.gov - Josh Hawley). Section 230 is a statute that protects social media and other companies from liability for content their users post (The Verge, The Conversation, Cornell).
Tags: Business, Technology, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-06-23; closed: 2024-01-12
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will a UN member state other than the US and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike from the air or sea against a ground target within the territory of Yemen before 1 March 2024?
Iran-back Houthi forces in Yemen have repeatedly attacked vessels off the Yemeni coast since war broke out in Gaza (ABC News, US News & World Report, BBC). The GCC is an international body comprised of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (GCC). "Stray" bullets or ordinance that hit an unintended target after being fired would not count. Both the strike and acknowledgement must occur during the question's open period to count, and would close upon the acknowledgement. Targets in territorial waters would not count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-12-15; closed: 2024-01-12
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will the United States publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike from the air or sea against a ground target within the territory of Yemen before 1 March 2024?
Iran-back Houthi forces in Yemen have repeatedly attacked vessels off the Yemeni coast since war broke out in Gaza (ABC News, US News & World Report, BBC). "Stray" bullets or ordinance that hit an unintended target after being fired would not count. Both the strike and acknowledgement must occur during the question's open period to count, and would close upon the acknowledgement. Targets in territorial waters would not count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, US Politics, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2023-12-15; closed: 2024-01-12
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Somalia due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?
Starting in August 2022, the Somali government started a total war against Al-Shabaab, resulting in the most comprehensive territorial gains since the mid-2010s (International Crisis Group). Various factors, including a shortage of forces, have limited activity against Al-Shabaab in 2023, which has raised fears that the Islamist group may regroup and retake control of some territory (ACLED - Somalia Situation Update May 2023). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (ACLED Dashboard). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the "EVENT DATE" range as appropriate, (2) for "EVENT TYPE, select all, (3) for "REGION," select only "Somalia" under "Eastern Africa," (4) for "FATALITIES," leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for "ACTOR TYPE," select all, (6) for "INTERACTION," select all, and click "APPLY FILTERS." Click "EVENT COUNT" above the chart and change the selection to "FATALITIES." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 1,502 total fatalities in the second quarter of 2023 in Somalia (1,122 attributed to "Battles," 108 attributed to "Violence against civilians," 269 attributed to "Explosions/Remote violence," 3 attributed to "Strategic developments," and none attributed to "Riots" or "Protests").
Tags: Society, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-09-29; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Fewer than 2,400, Between 2,400 and 3,200, inclusive, More than 3,200 but fewer than 4,000, Between 4,000 and 4,800, inclusive, More than 4,800 but fewer than 5,600, 5,600 or more
Answer: Fewer than 2,400
Question: Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, how many total violent conflict events will occur in Northern Mali, according to ACLED?
MINUSMA, a UN peacekeeping mission established to stabilize Northern Mali after a Tuareg uprising in 2012, was ordered to leave the country by its military government in mid-2023, which has raised fears of new violence (France 24, MINUSMA, International Crisis Group, UN - Africa Renewal). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (ACLED Dashboard). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the "EVENT DATE" range as appropriate, (2) for "EVENT TYPE, select only "Battles," "Violence against civilians," and "Explosions/Remote violence," (3) for "REGION," select only "Gao," "Kidal," and "Tombouctou" under "Mali" under "Western Africa," (4) for "FATALITIES," leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for "ACTOR TYPE," select all, (6) for "INTERACTION," select all, and click "APPLY FILTERS." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 99 total qualifying events in the second quarter of 2023 in Northern Mali (19 "Battles," 72 events of "Violence against civilians," and 8 "Explosions/Remote violence").
Tags: Society, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-09-29; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Fewer than 100, Between 100 and 125, inclusive, More than 125 but fewer than 150, Between 150 and 175, inclusive, More than 175 but fewer than 200, Between 200 and 225, inclusive, More than 225
Answer: Between 200 and 225, inclusive
Question: What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2023?
Inflation in the US is expected to cool in 2023 versus 2022, with some discussing the potential for deflation (Morningstar, CBS News, CNBC, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for December 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items," expected in January 2024 (BLS). For December 2021, the change was 7.0%.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-11-04; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Down by more than 0.0%, Up by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive, Up by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%, Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive, Up by more than 4.5% but less than 6.0%, Up by 6.0% or more
Answer: Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive
Question: Will Presidents Claudine Gay of Harvard University and/or Sally Kornbluth of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) cease to be the presidents of their respective institutions before 11 January 2024?
Calls for the presidents of Harvard and MIT to resign have continued in the wake of early December 2023 US House hearings on antisemitism on college campuses, with Liz Magill of the University of Pennsylvania having already resigned on 9 December 2023 (USA Today, CNN, NPR).
Tags: Society, US Politics
Question opened: 2023-12-11; closed: 2024-01-11
Options: Yes, only Claudine Gay, Yes, only Sally Kornbluth, Yes, both Claudine Gay and Sally Kornbluth, No
Answer: Yes, only Claudine Gay
Question: When will new federal legislation enabling the executive branch to ban or prohibit TikTok from operating in the US become law?
On 7 March 2023, a bipartisan group of senators introduced the RESTRICT Act, legislation designed to empower the executive branch to, among other things, prohibit companies from certain countries from performing transactions in the US (US News & World Report, NBC News, Sen. Mark Warner, TechCrunch, Congress.gov - S.686). The date the legislation would take effect and whether TikTok is actually banned would be immaterial.
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, Entertainment, Foreign Policy, US Politics
Question opened: 2023-03-24; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Before 11 August 2023, Between 11 August 2023 and 31 December 2023, Not before 1 January 2024
Answer: Not before 1 January 2024
Question: Will an end to diplomatic relations between Israel and Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and/or the UAE be officially announced before 1 January 2024?
As the Israeli conflict in the Gaza Strip escalates after attacks in southern Israel in early October 2023, there are concerns that diplomatic relations between Israel and various Arab states could suffer (Al Jazeera, Times of Israel, AP, New Arab). The expulsion or recalling of some individuals alone would not count (e.g., AP).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-10-13; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many acres will be consumed by reported wildfires in the US in 2023?
The US is entering 2023 with a third year of La Niña and drought affecting various parts of the country (FOX Weather, San Francisco Standard, NIFC - Outlooks). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) (NIFC - National Fire News, NIFC - Statistics, see Wildland Fire Summaries). In 2021, reported wildfires consumed 7,125,643 acres in the US (NIFC Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report 2021, NIFC - Wildfires and Acres).
Tags: Environment
Question opened: 2022-12-30; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Fewer than 5.0 million, Between 5.0 million and 6.5 million, inclusive, More than 6.5 million but fewer than 8.0 million, Between 8.0 million and 9.5 million, inclusive, More than 9.5 million but fewer than 11.0 million, Between 11.0 million and 12.5 million, inclusive, More than 12.5 million
Answer: Fewer than 5.0 million
Question: Which team will win the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship?
The two semifinal games are scheduled for 1 January 2024, and the national championship game is scheduled for 8  January 2024 in Houston, Texas (NCAA).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-11-10; closed: 2024-01-08
Options: Alabama Crimson Tide, Florida State Seminoles, Georgia Bulldogs, Michigan Wolverines, Ohio State Buckeyes, Oregon Ducks, Texas Longhorns, Washington Huskies, Another team
Answer: Michigan Wolverines
Question: Which NFL quarterback will throw for the most touchdowns in the 2023 regular season?
The outcome will be determined using "NFL Player Passing Stats 2023" data as reported by ESPN (ESPN). In the event of a tie, the quarterback who threw for the most yards per game will be considered to have thrown for the most touchdowns, followed by completion percentage (CMP%). The team for which each named quarterback was due to start as of the launch of this question is in parentheses, but the team for whom any quarterback is playing is immaterial to the resolution.
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-09-01; closed: 2024-01-07
Options: Patrick Mahomes (KC Chiefs), Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills), Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals), Justin Herbert (LA Chargers), Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets), Another quarterback
Answer: Another quarterback
Question: Which NFL team will win the AFC East division in the 2023 season?
The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (NFL).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-09-01; closed: 2024-01-07
Options: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets
Answer: Buffalo Bills
Question: Will "Barbie" win more Golden Globes than "Oppenheimer?"
Barbie received the most Golden Globe nominations for 2024 with nine (three in the same category of Best Original Song - Motion Picture), and Oppenheimer came in second with eight (BBC). The awards ceremony is scheduled for 7 January 2024 (Golden Globes).
Tags: Business, Society, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-12-22; closed: 2024-01-07
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many total refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe from around the Mediterranean Sea in 2023?
The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for "Total arrivals" on its Mediterranean Situation page (UNHCR - Mediterranean Situation). In 2022, a total of 159,410 arrived in Europe (sea arrivals to Italy, Cyprus, and Malta, and both sea and land arrivals to Greece and Spain (including the Canary Islands)).
Tags: Society, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-04-13; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Fewer than 100,000, Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive, More than 200,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 550,000, inclusive, More than 550,000 but fewer than 800,000, 800,000 or more
Answer: More than 200,000 but fewer than 350,000
Question: What will be the spot price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 29 December 2023?
Gasoline prices in the US reached 10-month highs in August 2023 as oil prices rise (CNN, The Hill). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the spot price per barrel per the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in January 2024 (FRED).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-08-18; closed: 2023-12-29
Options: Less than $60.00, Between $60.00 and $70.00, inclusive, More than $70.00 but less than $80.00, Between $80.00 and $90.00, inclusive, More than $90.00 but less than $100.00, Between $100.00 and $110.00, inclusive, More than $110.00
Answer: More than $70.00 but less than $80.00
Question: What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for December 2023?
While the US unemployment rate in April 2023 tied for the lowest in 70 years, there are signals that the labor market is cooling amid general recession fears (US News & World Report, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics when first released, expected in January 2024 (BLS).
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-05-19; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Lower than 3.5%, 3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0%, 4.0% or higher, but lower than 4.5%, 4.5% or higher, but lower than 5.0%, 5.0% or higher, but lower than 5.5%, 5.5% or higher, but lower than 6.0%, 6.0% or higher
Answer: 3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0%
Question: Will the US civilian labor force participation rate be higher in December 2023 than it was in October 2023?
The labor force participation rate has been trending down since the beginning of the 21st century (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database once figures for December 2023 are first released, expected in January 2024 (FRED).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-08-18; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 6 January 2023 and 29 December 2023, what will be the highest four-week average of US field production of crude oil?
Oil prices have fallen from historic highs reached after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the Biden administration is pushing for more domestic production (Axios, US News & World Report, NASDAQ). The outcome will be determined using the "4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day) as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (EIA). A weekly figure must have its "End Date" between 6 January 2023 and 29 December 2023 to count. On 6 December 2022, the EIA forecasted domestic production would increase to 12.34 million barrels per day in 2023 (EIA Short-term Energy Outlook - December 2022).
Tags: Business, Technology, Security and Conflict, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-01-06; closed: 2023-12-29
Options: Less than 12,000 thousand b/d, Between 12,000 and 12,400 thousand b/d, inclusive, More than 12,400 but less than 12,800 thousand b/d, Between 12,800 and 13,200 thousand b/d, inclusive, More than 13,200 thousand b/d
Answer: More than 13,200 thousand b/d
Question: What percentage of the labour force in British Columbia (BC) will be comprised of workers 55 years and older in December 2023?
The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada, parameters set in link). To retrieve data for a specific month, see the month and year drop-down menus under "Reference period," and click "Apply." Subsequent revisions to data would be immaterial. The percentage of workers 55 years and older who are in the labour force will be determined by dividing the "Labour force" figure for "55 years and older" by the "Labour force" figure for "15 years and over" for December 2023. In October 2022, workers 55 years and older comprised 21.87% (=630.8/2884.6) of the BC labour force.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-11-25; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Less than 20.0%, Between 20.0% and 21.0%, inclusive, More than 21.0% but less than 22.0%, Between 22.0% and 23.0%, inclusive, More than 23.0%
Answer: More than 21.0% but less than 22.0%
Question: Between November 2022 and December 2023, will workers 15 to 24 years old who are in the labour force of British Columbia (BC) comprise more than 14.6% of the total BC labour force in any month?
The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada, parameters set in link). To retrieve data for a specific month, see the month and year drop-down menus under "Reference period," and click "Apply." Subsequent revisions to data would be immaterial. The percentage of workers 15 to 24 years old who are in the labour force will be determined by dividing the "Labour force" figure for "15 to 24 years" by the "Labour force" figure for "15 years and over" in the relevant month. In October 2022, workers 15 to 24 years old comprised 13.62% (=393.0/2884.6) of the BC labour force.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-11-25; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many presidential campaign rallies will Donald Trump hold in early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president in the fourth quarter of 2023?
*This question uses an experimental framing. Please read the question description carefully before forecasting.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda, Former President Donald Trump announced that he will seek the Republican nomination for US president in 2024 (The Hill). FiveThirtyEight Founder Nate Silver speculated on Twitter whether Trump is actually running for reasons other than winning the 2024 presidential election (Twitter - Nate Silver). "Early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president" are the four states scheduled to hold Republican primaries or caucuses first. The list of pertinent states is subject to change depending on the official finalization of the schedule by the jurisdictions involved. The list will be finalized for this question no later than 31 August 2023, and if there is more than one primary scheduled for the date on which the fourth would fall, the primary for the state with the largest population would be included. For a Trump presidential campaign rally to count, it must be open to the public (though not necessarily free to attend), have reported attendance of at least 1,000, and have Donald Trump speak at the event in person (e.g., WUWM, Telegraph Herald).
Question opened: 2022-12-16; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: None, Between 1 and 6, Between 7 and 12, Between 13 and 18, 19 or more
Answer: Between 13 and 18
Question: When will Nikki Haley surpass either Ron DeSantis or Donald Trump in 2024 Republican presidential nomination support, according to RealClearPolitics?
Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has been rising slowly but steadily in the race for the Republican nomination (CNN). The question will be suspended on 12 January 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported by RealClearPolitics' RCP Poll Average for the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination (RealClearPolitics, set to "3M"). Chart data will be accessed for resolution as soon as data for 12 January 2024 are first reported, if necessary. If either DeSantis or Trump ceases to be a candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, the question will close as of the date the candidate ceased.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-11-08; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Before 30 November 2023, Between 30 November 2023 and 21 December 2023, Between 22 December 2023 and 12 January 2024, Not before 13 January 2024
Answer: Between 22 December 2023 and 12 January 2024
Question: How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2023?
Amidst higher interest rates, job openings in the US have fallen in 2023 but are still at historically elevated levels (US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using BLS data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for November 2023, expected in January 2024 (FRED, BLS - JOLTS Release Schedule). As of 18 August 2023, the total number of job openings reported for November 2022 was 10,746 (in thousands), or 10.746 million.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-08-18; closed: 2023-12-01
Options: Fewer than 7.5 million, Between 7.5 million and 8.0 million, inclusive, More than 8.0 million but fewer than 8.5 million, Between 8.5 million and 9.0 million, inclusive, More than 9.0 million but fewer than 9.5 million, Between 9.5 million and 10.0 million, inclusive, More than 10.0 million
Answer: Between 8.5 million and 9.0 million, inclusive
Question: What will be the spot exchange rate value of US dollars to one euro on 29 December 2023?
The Federal Reserve releases daily bilateral exchange rate data on a weekly basis (Federal Reserve). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Federal Reserve data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected on 2 January 2024 (FRED). On 10 August 2023, the spot exchange rate value was 1.1016.
Tags: Business, Finance
Question opened: 2023-08-18; closed: 2023-12-29
Options: Lower than 1.000, Between 1.000 and 1.040, inclusive, Higher than 1.040 but lower than 1.080, Between 1.080 and 1.120, inclusive, Higher than 1.120 but lower than 1.160, Between 1.160 and 1.200, inclusive, Higher than 1.200
Answer: Between 1.080 and 1.120, inclusive