jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: What will be the US national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 15 May 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?
Lower demand due to a slowing economy and the fallout from bank failures are expected to depress gasoline prices in the near term (CNN, WANE). The question will be suspended on 14 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 15 May 2023 (AAA, see "Today's AAA National Average" graphic).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-03-22; closed: 2023-05-14
Options: Less than $2.70, Between $2.70 and $3.00, inclusive, More than $3.00 but less than $3.30, Between $3.30 and $3.60, inclusive, More than $3.60 but less than $3.90, Between $3.90 and $4.20, inclusive, More than $4.20 but less than $4.50, $4.50 or more
Answer: Between $3.30 and $3.60, inclusive
Question: Which country will win Eurovision 2023?
The Eurovision Song Contest is a popular competition between countries in Europe (and some beyond) that began in 1956 (Eurovision). The Grand Final is scheduled to take place on Saturday 13 May 2023 (Eurovision - Liverpool 2023).
Tags: Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-04-13; closed: 2023-05-13
Options: Finland, Norway, Sweden, Ukraine, Another country
Answer: Sweden
Question: What will be the closing value of the British pound to US dollar exchange rate on 12 May 2023?
Fears of a UK recession, inflation, and the impact of government fiscal policy has seen the British pound fall to its lowest level versus the US dollar since the UK's decimalization in 1971 (Guardian, CNBC, Historic UK). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").
Tags: Business, Finance, Society, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-09-30; closed: 2023-05-12
Options: Lower than 0.90, Between 0.90 and 0.95, inclusive, Higher than 0.95 but lower than 1.00, Between 1.00 and 1.05, inclusive, Higher than 1.05 but lower than 1.10, Between 1.10 and 1.15, inclusive, Higher than 1.15 but lower than 1.20, 1.20 or higher
Answer: 1.20 or higher
Question: How much will Beyond Meat report in net revenue for its first quarter of 2023?
Beyond Meat, a firm that specializes in producing plant-based meat substitutes, has been dealing with various problems, including falling sales (Beyond Meat, CoStar, Axios, NBC News). The question will be suspended on 2 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by Beyond Meat in its first quarter 2023 financials, expected in May 2023 (Beyond Meat - Quarterly Results). For the third quarter of 2022, the company reported total net revenues of $82,500 (thousands), or $82.5 million (Beyond Meat - Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results). The company is scheduled to release earnings for the fourth quarter of 2022 on 23 February 2023 (Global News Wire).
Tags: Business, Technology, Health
Question opened: 2023-02-10; closed: 2023-04-03
Options: Less than $65 million, Between $65 million and $75 million, inclusive, More than $75 million but less than $85 million, Between $85 million and $95 million, inclusive, More than $95 million
Answer: Between $85 million and $95 million, inclusive
Question: What will be the 3-month moving average of median wage growth for "Paid hourly" workers in April 2023?
The Federal Reserve is targeting wage inflation as part of its overall attempt to bring price stability (CNBC, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Atlanta Fed's "Wage Growth Tracker" (Atlanta Fed, with "Interactive Chart" selected, click "Unweighted series, hourly" under "3-month moving average," then click "Paid hourly" in the chart legend). In April 2022, the 3-month moving average for "Paid hourly" was 6.5%.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-03-29; closed: 2023-05-05
Options: Less than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 5.4%, inclusive, More than 5.4% but less than 6.0%, 6.0% or more
Answer: 6.0% or more
Question: What will be the 12-month moving average of median wage growth for "Paid hourly" workers in April 2023?
Increasing labor costs are a big part of the overall inflation story in the US (CNBC, Society for Human Resource Management, Politico). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Atlanta Fed's "Wage Growth Tracker" (Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker, with "Interactive Chart" selected, click "Hourly workers" under "12-month moving averages (unweighted, hourly)"). In April 2021, the 12-month moving average for "Paid hourly" was 3.4%.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-06-10; closed: 2023-05-01
Options: Less than 2.0%, Between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive, More than 4.0% but less than 6.0%, Between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive, More than 8.0%
Answer: Between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive
Question: In National Pork Producers Council v. Ross, will the Supreme Court rule any part of California’s Farm Animal Confinement Initiative (Prop 12) unconstitutional?
In 2018, California voters approved Prop 12, which set various standards for the sale of certain animal products in the state (Ballotpedia). The National Pork Producers Council and American Farm Bureau Federation (Council) sued in federal court, claiming Prop 12 violated the dormant Commerce Clause of the constitution (Oyez, Saylor Academy). After losing in both the district court and Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, the Council appealed to the Supreme Court (SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2022 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
Tags: Business, Society, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-09-23; closed: 2023-05-11
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Emirates airline revenues for FY 2022-23 reach or exceed the total revenue from FY 2018-19 of AED 97,907 million?
The COVID-19 pandemic hit airlines particularly hard, but the Emirates airline has recovered thus far in its current fiscal year (FY) (Emirates Group, Simple Flying). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data reported in Emirates Group's (the airline's parent company) annual report for FY 2022-23, expected in the late spring of 2023 (Emirates Group). Emirate Group's FY 2022-23 runs from 1 April 2022 to 31 March 2023. For FY 2021-22, Emirates airline reported revenue of AED 59,180 million (Emirates Group - 2021-22 Annual Report, see "Revenue and other operating income" on page 179). "AED" are Dirhams, the national currency of the UAE.
Tags: Business, Sports
Question opened: 2023-02-02; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: When will Netflix next report more subscribers in a quarter than Disney?
The total number of paid subscribers for Disney's family of streaming services exceeded Netflix's total number of paid memberships for the first time in the second quarter of 2022 (Visual Capitalist, Deadline). Netflix's fiscal year aligns with the calendar year, but Disney's fiscal year runs roughly from the beginning of October to the end of September of the following year. For the purposes of this question, we will treat the relevant quarters as covering the same relevant calendar quarters. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Netflix and Disney (Netflix, see "Letter to Shareholders" (quarterly), https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/investor-relations/, see "Quarterly Earning Reports"). For the second quarter of 2022, Netflix reported 220.67 million while Disney reported 221.1 million (Netflix - FY Q2 2022 Letter to Shareholders, sum "Paid Memberships" under "Regional Breakdown," or 220.67 million; Disney - FY Q3 2022 Quarterly Earnings Report, sum "Paid subscribers" in the first table on page 6, or 221.1 million). Disney's subscriber reporting currently includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ combined. If Disney sells one of those units, then its total would no longer be included. Likewise, any other acquisitions that Disney includes in its consumer streaming reporting would be included.
Tags: Business, Technology, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-01-23; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: First quarter of 2023 or before, Second quarter of 2023, Third quarter of 2023, Fourth quarter of 2023, Not before 2024
Answer: First quarter of 2023 or before
Question: What will happen next with regard to California Senator Dianne Feinstein?
Senator Feinstein has been away from the Senate since February 2023 while recovering from shingles, which has held up Judiciary Committee action to confirm federal judges (ABC News, CNN, The Hill). A committee vote would count only if cast while present in the District of Columbia.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics
Question opened: 2023-04-28; closed: 2023-05-11
Options: She will cast a vote in the US Senate, She will cease to be a US Senator, Neither will occur before 24 June 2023
Answer: She will cast a vote in the US Senate
Question: Will the unadjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) value for coffee in April 2023 be higher than it was in February 2023?
The question will be suspended on 9 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data for February 2023 and April 2023 as reported when April 2023 data are first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), expected in May 2023 (BLS). To retrieve the data via the BLS CPI page, click "One Screen" for "All Urban Consumers (Current Series)." In the new window that opens, select "U.S. city average" under "Select an Area," select "Coffee" under "Select one or more Items," and leave only "Not Seasonally Adjusted" selected under "Select Seasonal Adjustment." As of 6 March 2023, the unadjusted CPI value for coffee in April 2022 was 222.449.
Tags: Business
Question opened: 2023-03-08; closed: 2023-05-09
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Prince Harry and/or Meghan Markle attend King Charles III's coronation in Westminster Abbey?
There is wide speculation on whether Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex, and his wife Meghan Markle, will attend his father's coronation (E! Online, InStyle). Prince Harry and/or Meghan Markle must be physically present in Westminster Abbey at the same time as King Charles III to count. The coronation is scheduled to take place on 6 May 2023 (BBC).
Tags: Society, Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-04-07; closed: 2023-05-06
Options: Yes, only Prince Harry, Yes, only Meghan Markle, Yes, both Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, No
Answer: Yes, only Prince Harry
Question: What will be the closing value of the euro to US dollar exchange rate on 5 May 2023?
Amid the continuing war in Ukraine, concerns about energy supplies in Europe, and other factors, the euro saw 20-year lows versus the dollar in September 2022 (The National, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").
Tags: Business, Finance, Society, Economic Indicators, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-09-30; closed: 2023-05-05
Options: Lower than 0.85, Between 0.85 and 0.90, inclusive, Higher than 0.90 but lower than 0.95, Between 0.95 and 1.00, inclusive, Higher than 1.00 but lower than 1.05, Between 1.05 and 1.10, inclusive, Higher than 1.10 but lower than 1.15, 1.15 or higher
Answer: Higher than 1.10 but lower than 1.15
Question: Will Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) sign a bilateral defense treaty before 6 May 2023?
After China and the Solomon Islands signed a security agreement in April 2022, Australia and other countries are rushing to secure closer relations with other Oceania countries (Guardian, BBC, CBS News). Australia and PNG have been discussing the development of a bilateral security treaty for years (Australia Dept. of Foreign Affairs and Trade - CSEP 2020, Australia Dept. of Foreign Affairs and Trade - 28th Papua New Guinea-Australia Ministerial Forum Joint Communiqué 2021). Ratification by the parties to the treaty would not be required for a "Yes" resolution.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-05-06; closed: 2023-05-06
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the World Health Organization (WHO) announce the end of the Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) related to COVID-19?
With the rise of vaccines and treatments along with moderated cases and deaths from COVID-19, there is speculation as to when WHO will declare an end to the PHEIC (Science.org, STAT, WHO - 30 January 2020). The question would close as of the effective date of the end of the PHEIC (e.g., WHO - 29 March 2016, Ebola PHEIC "termination" in 2016).
Tags: Society, Health, US Politics, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-09-30; closed: 2023-05-05
Options: Before 1 January 2023, Between 1 January 2023 and 31 March 2023, Between 1 April 2023 and 30 June 2023, Not before 1 July 2023
Answer: Between 1 April 2023 and 30 June 2023
Question: What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 4 May 2023?
In October 2022, rates for 30-year mortgages climbed above 7.00% for the first time since 2002, pushed by higher interest rates out of the Federal Reserve (AP, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). For the week ending 3 November 2022, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 6.95%.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-11-04; closed: 2023-05-04
Options: Lower than 4.00%, Between 4.00% and 5.00%, inclusive, Higher than 5.00% but lower than 6.00%, Between 6.00% and 7.00%, inclusive, Higher than 7.00% but lower than 8.00%, Between 8.00% and 9.00%, inclusive, More than 9.00%
Answer: Between 6.00% and 7.00%, inclusive
Question: In the current conflict in Ukraine, will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire before 5 May 2023?
While various parties have called for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, the fighting continues (Al Arabiya, Daily Beast,  Parley Policy Initiative). An announced ceasefire must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count, and must include the whole of Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the announced ceasefire to count. The date a ceasefire would take effect is immaterial.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-11-04; closed: 2023-05-05
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for April 2023?
With higher interest rates and troubles in the banking industry, there are concerns that the US labor market will suffer (CNBC, NBC News). The question will be suspended on 4 May 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when first released, expected on 5 May 2023 (BLS).
Tags: Business, Sports, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-03-22; closed: 2023-05-04
Options: Less than 3.5%, Between 3.5% and 3.7%, inclusive, More than 3.7% but less than 4.1%, Between 4.1% and 4.3%, inclusive, More than 4.3%
Answer: Less than 3.5%
Question: Which team will be at the top of the English Premier League as of the end of 6 May 2023?
The Premier League is the highest level of professional soccer (football) in England and Wales (Premier League, Premier League - Tables (Standings)). Any games postponed to after 6 May 2023 would be immaterial.
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2023-03-22; closed: 2023-05-03
Options: Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Another team
Answer: Manchester City
Question: Will the European Central Bank (ECB) announce a change to the "Fixed rate" for its "Main refinance operations" interest rate at its next scheduled monetary policy meeting?
At its March 2023 meeting, the ECB raised interest rates for the eurozone in its fight against inflation, despite banking sector turmoil (US News & World Report, CNN, ECB - Key ECB interest rates). The Governing Council of the ECB is scheduled to have its next monetary policy meeting on 4 May 2023 (ECB - Meeting Schedule). The date the change would take effect is immaterial.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-03-29; closed: 2023-05-03
Options: Yes, a decrease, No, Yes, an increase greater than 0.00% but less than or equal to 0.25%, Yes, an increase greater than 0.25% but less than or equal to 0.50%, Yes, an increase greater than 0.50%
Answer: Yes, an increase greater than 0.00% but less than or equal to 0.25%
Question: How many new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in April 2023, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?
Electric vehicles are penetrating the UK motor vehicle market, though gasoline (petrol) vehicle sales have jumped in 2023 (CleanTechnia). The question will be suspended on 3 May 2023 and the outcome determined using the "April" data table from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders report released in May 2023, typically on the fourth working day of the month (SMMT - Car Registrations, SMMT). In April 2022, 12,899 new BEVs were registered in the UK (SMMT - News 5 May 2022).
Tags: Business, Technology, Environment, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-03-29; closed: 2023-05-03
Options: Fewer than 10,000, Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive, More than 15,000 but fewer than 20,000, Between 20,000 and 25,000, inclusive, More than 25,000 but fewer than 30,000, 30,000 or more
Answer: Between 20,000 and 25,000, inclusive
Question: At close of business on 3 May 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 22 March 2023?
The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its May meeting is scheduled for 2-3 May 2023.
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-12-16; closed: 2023-05-03
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Higher
Question: What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 1 May 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?
The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 21 January 2023, Biden's approval rating was 42.2%. The data for 1 May 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 May 2023.
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2023-01-27; closed: 2023-05-01
Options: Lower than 38.0%, Between 38.0% and 42.0%, inclusive, Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%, Between 46.0% and 50.0%, inclusive, Higher than 50.0%
Answer: Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%
Question: Will real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 be higher than it was in the fourth quarter of 2022?
The EU was already facing a bevy of challenges to its economic health in the near term before bank failures in the US and collapse of Credit Suisse (Politico, Anadolu Agency). The question will be suspended on 27 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data from Eurostat for real GDP as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) upon the release of the preliminary flash estimate for the first quarter of 2023, called the "Preliminary Flash Estimate GDP - EU and euro area, Q1/2023," expected on 28 April 2023 (FRED).
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-03-22; closed: 2023-04-27
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will the combined daily Android users of Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Snapchat exceed 1.74 billion in February 2023?
October 2022 saw the third consecutive month of declines in Android device users on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Snapchat (Nonrival, see first chart). The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 and the outcome determined using SimilarWeb data as reported by Nonrival (Similarweb, Nonrival - Substack).
Tags: Business, Technology, Society
Question opened: 2022-12-09; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many nonfarm job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for March 2023?
Despite rising interest rates and recession fears, US job openings in December 2022 rose to over 11 million (US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using March 2023 BLS data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), expected in May 2023 (FRED). As of 1 February 2023, the number of nonfarm job openings reported for March 2022 was 11,855 thousand, or 11.855 million.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-02-03; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Fewer than 9.0 million, Between 9.0 million and 9.6 million, inclusive, More than 9.6 million but fewer than 10.2 million, Between 10.2 million and 10.8 million, inclusive, More than 10.8 million but fewer than 11.4 million, Between 11.4 million and 12.0 million, inclusive, More than 12.0 million
Answer: Between 9.0 million and 9.6 million, inclusive
Question: How many job layoffs and discharges in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for the first quarter of 2023?
US job openings fell in August 2022 at the fastest pace since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, raising concerns that the US labor market may be deteriorating (US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined by summing BLS data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) for January 2023, February 2023, and March 2023 as reported when data for March 2023 are first released, expected around early May 2023 (FRED). As of 20 October 2022, the job layoffs and discharges reported for the first quarter of 2022 totaled 4,173 (in thousands).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-10-21; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Fewer than 4 million, Between 4 million and 5 million, inclusive, More than 5 million but fewer than 6 million, Between 6 million and 7 million, inclusive, More than 7 million but fewer than 8 million, 8 million or more
Answer: More than 5 million but fewer than 6 million
Question: Will the Chinese government publicly announce that it has approved the use of a foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for use among its citizens in the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2 May 2023?
While China in November 2022 agreed to allow German expatriates in the country to receive Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines, China has yet to approve more effective foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccines for use among Chinese citizens (Economist, Politico, NPR, ABC News, Track Vaccines, JHU Bloomberg School of Public Health). An approval does not need to include every Chinese citizen to count, but approvals for research and/or trials alone would not count.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-12-02; closed: 2023-05-02
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No