jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Romance Scams in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?
Fraud against older Americans has been increasing (WSB-TV). The question will be suspended on 10 February 2023 and the outcome determined using 2022 data as reported in the FTC's 2022-2023 Protecting Older Consumers report, expected in October 2023 (FTC - Press Release). In the 2021-2022 report released in October 2022, the FTC reported that aggregate reported losses by older adults due to Romance Scams totaled $213 million in 2021 (Protecting Older Consumers 2021-2022, see page 33 in the file). Older reports are also available online (Protecting Older Consumers 2017-2018, Protecting Older Consumers 2018-2019, Protecting Older Consumers 2019-2020, Protecting Older Consumers 2020-2021).Seniors Against Fraud and Exploitation (SAFE) is a charitable and public service organization that seeks to eliminate the financial exploitation of older adults in all its forms, using statistical analysis, forecasting, and open source intelligence. Click here to follow them on Twitter.
Tags: Society
Question opened: 2022-11-18; closed: 2023-02-11
Options: Less than $213 million, Between $213 million and $270 million, inclusive, More than $270 million but less than $328 million, $328 million or more
Answer: Between $213 million and $270 million, inclusive
Question: What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023?
While China ended its "zero COVID" policies around the beginning of the year, its economy is still dealing with challenges  (Forexlive, Yahoo Finance, CNN). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in October 2023 (Trading Economics).
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-05-19; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Higher by less than 3.0%, Higher by between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive, Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 5.0%, Higher by between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, Higher by more than 6.0%
Answer: Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 5.0%
Question: How many seats will the Law and Justice party (PiS) list win in the Sejm in Poland's next parliamentary election?
Poland's ruling PiS, sometimes referred to by its coalition name "United Right," is seeking a third consecutive term as the majority in parliament, though observers see a very competitive race (Politico, Guardian, The First News, Politico - Poland Poll of Polls). The Sejm is the lower house of the Polish parliament, and the next parliamentary election is to be held by November 2023 (Sejm.gov.pl). All seats won as a result of votes for the PiS official candidate list will be counted towards resolution, including the members of any minor coalition parties included in the PiS list (e.g., The First News). The close date for this question will be changed once the official election date is set.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-06-09; closed: 2023-10-15
Options: PiS will win a majority of seats, PiS will win a plurality of seats, PiS will win neither a majority nor a plurality
Answer: PiS will win a plurality of seats
Question: Between 7 February 2023 and 30 September 2023, will an industrial customer in the US sign a binding sales agreement (aka offtake agreement) to purchase 50 million or more standard cubic feet per day (MSCFD) of blue hydrogen?
Question opened: 2023-02-07; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 15 October 2023?
SpaceX is working to launch its next orbital flight test as soon as summer 2023 (CBS News, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2023-06-30; closed: 2023-10-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will monthly global land and sea temperature anomalies reach or exceed 1.4°C before October 2023, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)?
Recorded global surface temperatures have risen steadily over the past decades (NASA Earth Observatory). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data published by NOAA (NOAA - Global Anomalies and Index Data, click "Download" for all data with the site's default settings [Monthly, Global, Land and Ocean, and CSV]). The highest anomaly, or the difference between a given time period as compared to the 20th century average, on record was 1.31°C in March 2016 as of the launch of this question.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Society, Environment
Question opened: 2023-02-03; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will a winner of the 2023 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences have a faculty appointment at Harvard University or the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) when the prize is announced?
Both Harvard and MIT have a long history of producing Nobel Laureates among both faculty and graduates (iSchoolConnect). The announcement of the winner or winners of the 2023 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences is scheduled for 9 October 2023 (Nobel Prize Announcement Dates). A winner with a faculty emeritus title or affiliate faculty title at either institution when the prize is announced would count.
Tags: Society
Question opened: 2023-09-11; closed: 2023-10-09
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Which driver will win the 2023 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?
Formula 1 auto racing is one of the most popular sports in the world (RTR Sports). The question will be suspended on 25 November 2023, the day before the final race in the season (Formula 1 - Driver Standings, Formula 1 - Abu Dhabi Grand Prix).
Tags: Business, Technology, Sports
Question opened: 2023-03-10; closed: 2023-10-07
Options: Fernando Alonso, Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc, Sergio Perez, George Russell, Max Verstappen, Another driver
Answer: Max Verstappen
Question: What will be the lowest reported Arctic sea ice extent in 2023 as of 6 October 2023?
Arctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the northern hemisphere that's at least 15% sea ice, has trended down in past decades (NOAA, Fox Weather). The question will be suspended on 5 October 2023 and the outcome determined using graph data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) "Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 6 October 2023 (Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph, About Charctic Data). Other site data would be immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2022 was 4.704 million sq. km on 19 September.
Tags: Environment
Question opened: 2023-06-16; closed: 2023-10-06
Options: Less than 3.4 million sq. km, Between 3.4 million sq. km and 3.8 million sq. km, inclusive, More than 3.8 million sq. km but less than 4.2 million sq. km, Between 4.2 million sq. km and 4.6 million sq. km, inclusive, More than 4.6 million sq. km but less than 5.0 million sq. km, 5.0 million sq. km or more
Answer: Between 4.2 million sq. km and 4.6 million sq. km, inclusive
Question: When will US total nonfarm payrolls next decrease in a given month?
The US labor market continued to add jobs in September 2022, but there are concerns that conditions may deteriorate as the Fed raises interest rates and recession fears rise (US News & World Report, Yahoo Finance). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using BLS data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Change, Thousands of Persons"). Subsequent revisions would be immaterial.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-10-21; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Between October 2022 and December 2022, Between January 2023 and March 2023, Between April 2023 and June 2023, Between July 2023 and September 2023, Not before October 2023
Answer: Not before October 2023
Question: Will Kevin McCarthy cease to be the Speaker of the US House of Representatives before 1 January 2024?
Elected after a post-Civil War record of 15 ballots, Kevin McCarthy will lead the GOP with a razor-thin majority in the House (US News & World Report, BBC).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics
Question opened: 2023-01-13; closed: 2023-10-03
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many total vehicles will Tesla produce in the second and third quarters of 2023?
Tesla produced a record 440,808 vehicles in the first quarter of 2023, though a shrinking order backlog may curb the company's push to further ramp up (TechCrunch, Inside EVs, Auto Revolution). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using Tesla's second quarter 2023 production figures, typically found under "Shareholder Deck," and the "Production & Delivery" press release for the third quarter of 2023 (Tesla - Quarterly Results). Tesla's total production of vehicles in the second and third quarters of 2022 was 624,503 (2023 Q1 Tesla Quarterly Update, see page 6).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2023-05-05; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Fewer than 800,000, Between 800,000 and 860,000, inclusive, More than 860,000 but fewer than 920,000, Between 920,000 and 980,000, inclusive, More than 980,000
Answer: More than 860,000 but fewer than 920,000
Question: How many total vehicles will Tesla produce in the third quarter of 2023?
Tesla produced a record 479,700 vehicles in the second quarter of 2023, though a shrinking order backlog and factory upgrading may curb further ramping up in the near term (Tesla - Q2 2023 Press Release, Shacknews, Inside EVs). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using Tesla's "Production & Delivery" press release for the third quarter of 2023 (Tesla - Financial Information).
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2023-09-11; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Fewer than 400,000, Between 400,000 and 440,000, inclusive, More than 440,000 but fewer than 480,000, Between 480,000 and 520,000, inclusive, More than 520,000 but fewer than 560,000, 560,000 or more
Answer: Between 400,000 and 440,000, inclusive
Question: Before 1 October 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device in Ukrainian territory, territorial waters, or airspace?
Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (Economist, BBC, Guardian). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea.
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-11-18; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 30 September 2023, according to CoinMarketCap?
Troubles at the crypto exchange FTX are the latest hit to the cryptocurrency ecosystem (Economist, CNBC, CoinDesk, Decrypt). The outcome will be determined using the last value dated 30 September 2023 (PT) as reported by CoinMarketCap under "Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap" (CoinMarketCap, set "Zoom" to "7d").
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology, Society
Question opened: 2022-11-18; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Less than $200 billion, Between $200 billion and $600 billion, inclusive, More than $600 billion but less than $1.0 trillion, Between $1.0 trillion and $1.4 trillion, inclusive, More than $1.4 trillion but less than $1.8 trillion, Between $1.8 trillion and $2.2 trillion, inclusive, More than $2.2 trillion
Answer: Between $1.0 trillion and $1.4 trillion, inclusive
Question: Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 October 2023?
President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 (Britannica). The temporary transfer of power to an acting president alone would not be considered Putin ceasing to be president (e.g., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-11-11; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Sweden become a member of NATO before 1 October 2023?
While Sweden submitted its application to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in May 2022, approval from Hungary and Turkey remain obstacles to membership (US News & World Report, Voice of America, NATO Parliamentary Assembly). The latest country to join NATO was Finland on 4 April 2023 (NATO).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-05-05; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 October 2023?
The PRC continues to hold military drills near Taiwan as the island nation extends the term of mandatory military service (Economist, Axios, BBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
Tags: Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-12-30; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Giorgia Meloni cease to be the prime minister of Italy before 1 October 2023?
Giorgia Meloni was sworn in as the first female prime minister of Italy in October 2022 amid high energy prices, the war in Ukraine, and various domestic issues (Economist, US News & World Report, Politico, Atlantic Council).
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-12-23; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the city council building in Melitopol, Ukraine, be under Ukrainian control on 1 October 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
Russian forces are reportedly expecting a Ukrainian counterattack in the spring of 2023, with the key city of Melitopol a potential target (France 24, Telegraph, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address is Mykhaila Hrushevskoho St, 5, Melitopol' (Mykhaila Hrushevskoho St, 5, Melitopol', Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 72300), to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. Whether the building is damaged or destroyed would be immaterial.
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2023-04-12; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Moldova have a change in its constitutional order by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 October 2023?
As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, the government of Moldova fears that Russia may attempt a coup in the country (US News & World Report, Politico, US News & World Report). For the purposes of this question, "extraconstitutional events" would be a change in the government by means not authorized by the Moldovan constitution (e.g., a coup) (Constitution of the Republic of Moldova). For example, the assassination of a leader alone would not count, but the installation of a successor not in accordance with the constitution would count. The fleeing of the constitutional government into exile would count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-03-08; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 October 2023, will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) execute a military strike within the territory of Iran?
Israel has stated that it would not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon, which is widely seen to include a possible military strike by Israel against Iran (Politico, Al Jazeera, FOXNews). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on Iranian territory. A cyberattack alone would not count. Actions not executed by the IDF would not count (e.g., covert assassinations of nuclear scientists). A strike in or over Iranian territorial waters would not count.
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-09-23; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Chinese renminbi (aka yuan) exchange rate on 29 September 2023?
BRICS nations, which includes China, and others are voicing pushback against the dominance of the US dollar in international trade in favor of local currencies (France24, First Post, Al-Monitor). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-05-05; closed: 2023-09-29
Options: Lower than 6.25, Between 6.25 and 6.50, inclusive, Higher than 6.50 but lower than 6.75, Between 6.75 and 7.00, inclusive, Higher than 7.00 but lower than 7.25, Between 7.25 and 7.50, inclusive, Higher than 7.50
Answer: Between 7.25 and 7.50, inclusive
Question: How many of the largest commercial banks in the US will fail between 7 April 2023 and 29 September 2023?
The failures of both Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank have observers speculating whether there will be more to come in 2023 (Deseret, The Street). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, "the largest commercial banks in the US" are those listed in the Federal Reserve's list of "Large Commercial Banks" as of 31 December 2022 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks, see "December 31, 2022"). As of 6 April 2023, two of the largest banks have failed in the US in 2023 thus far, SVB and Signature Bank (FDIC). A bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcome. The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Finance, Society, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-04-07; closed: 2023-09-29
Options: 0, 1, 2 or 3, 4 or more
Answer: 1
Question: What will be the value of China's NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September 2023?
Weakness in China's manufacturing sector has dimmed hopes of a robust economic recovery in China post "zero COVID" (US News & World Report). A PMI is a measure of trends in different economic sectors, where any value above 50 represents expansion according to a survey of purchasing managers (Investopedia - PMI). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics, expected on or about 29 September 2023 (Trading Economics).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-06-09; closed: 2023-09-29
Options: Lower than 46.0, Between 46.0 and 48.0, inclusive, Higher than 48.0 but lower than 50.0, Between 50.0 and 52.0, inclusive, Higher than 52.0
Answer: Between 50.0 and 52.0, inclusive
Question: What will be the closing value of the ICE US Dollar Index on 29 September 2023?
The US Dollar Index, a measure of the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, has fallen from two-decade highs reached in 2022 (CNBC, MarketWatch, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M"). On 5 April 2023, the closing value was 102.01.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-04-07; closed: 2023-09-29
Options: Less than 96.00, Between 96.00 and 98.00, inclusive, More than 98.00 but less than 100.00, Between 100.00 and 102.00, inclusive, More than 102.00 but less than 104.00, Between 104.00 and 106.00, inclusive, More than 106.00
Answer: More than 106.00
Question: Between 9 June 2023 and 29 September 2023, will shares of Alphabet (Google) outperform shares of Microsoft?
As the race to develop artificial intelligence heats up, both Alphabet and Microsoft are vying for position (Observer, NY Post). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance - Alphabet, Class A shares, Google Finance - Microsoft). The closing values of each stock for 29 September 2023 will be divided by their respective closing values for 9 June 2023 to determine the performance, or percentage change. The difference in percentage points of each calculation will determine the resolution. In the event of an exact tie, the stock with the greater percentage increase at any point between the close on 9 June 2023 to the close on 29 September 2023 would be deemed the outperformer. In the event that a company splits its shares, the price of shares will be adjusted accordingly (Investopedia - Stock Split).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2023-06-09; closed: 2023-09-29
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many total vehicles will be sold in the US between June and August 2023?
While inventories improved in the first quarter of 2023, rising interest rates are putting pressure on US auto sales (US News & World Report, CBS News). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2023 and the outcome determined by adding monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) for June, July, and August 2023 once August 2023 data are first available (FRED, hover cursor over chart for data).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2023-04-07; closed: 2023-09-01
Options: Fewer than 3.0 million, Between 3.0 million and 3.4 million, inclusive, More than 3.4 million but fewer than 3.8 million, Between 3.8 million and 4.2 million, inclusive, More than 4.2 million
Answer: Between 3.8 million and 4.2 million, inclusive
Question: How many of Ballotpedia's 13 "noteworthy" Republican candidates as of 20 July 2023 will have ceased to be presidential candidates as of 28 September 2023?
As of 20 July 2023, the 13 "noteworthy" Republican candidates were Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Larry Elder, Nikki Haley, Will Hurd, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Corey Stapleton, Francis Suarez, and Donald Trump (Ballotpedia, Politico). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that a candidate no longer seeks the Republican Party nomination for president or that a candidate is suspending his or her campaign.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-07-21; closed: 2023-09-29
Options: None or 1, 2 or 3, 4 or 5, 6 or more
Answer: None or 1