jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?
Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy going into 2023 (Fannie Mae, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 26 April 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in April 2023 (FRED).
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-03-08; closed: 2023-04-26
Options: Lower by more than 1.5%, Lower by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive, Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%, Higher by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive, Higher by more than 3.0% but less than 4.5%, Higher by 4.5% or more
Answer: Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%
Question: What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?
Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy going into 2023 (US News & World Report, CNN). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in April 2023 (FRED).
Tags: Business, Finance, Society, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-10-28; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Lower by more than 3.0%, Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive, Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%, Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive, Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%, Higher by 3.0% or more
Answer: Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive
Question: Will President Joe Biden register with the FEC to run for US president in 2024 before 1 May 2023?
Biden is expected to formally announce in early 2023 that he will run for reelection in 2024, though voter enthusiasm was low in January 2023 and his approval rating has been under 50% for much of his first term (The Hill, US News & World Report, NBC News, FiveThirtyEight). President Biden filed his original Statement of Candidacy for the 2020 presidential election on 25 April 2019 (FEC - Biden Filings, Politico).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-02-01; closed: 2023-04-25
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will postponed local elections be held in North Kosovo before 1 May 2023?
On 10 December 2022, Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani announced that local elections in northern Serb-majority areas would be postponed to 23 April 2023, due to violence and tensions in the area (Deutsche Welle, BBC [in Serbian]. Elections held in any of the following municipalities would count: Northern Mitrovica (Severna Mitrovica), Zubin Potok, Zvecan, and/or Leposavic. The local elections must be recognized by the government in Pristina to count. The question would close early upon the official announcement that the elections have been canceled or postponed to a date after 30 April 2023.
Tags: Security and Conflict, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-12-16; closed: 2023-04-23
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Turkish lira exchange rate on 21 April 2023?
The lira has fallen to record lows against the dollar in 2022 as Turkey fights inflation with by unorthodox means (CNBC, EuroNews, Daily Sabah). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").
Tags: Finance, Society, Economic Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-10-21; closed: 2023-04-21
Options: Lower than 15.00, Between 15.00 and 17.00, inclusive, Higher than 17.00 but lower than 19.00, Between 19.00 and 21.00, inclusive, Higher than 21.00 but lower than 23.00, Between 23.00 and 25.00, inclusive, Higher than 25.00
Answer: Between 19.00 and 21.00, inclusive
Question: How many quarters of negative real GDP growth will the European Union (EU) experience in 2022?
With high inflation and the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fears are growing that the EU could enter a recession this year (CNN, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data from Eurostat for "GDP and main components (output, expenditure and income)" specifically for "European Union - 27 countries (from 2020)" as reported upon the release of the final estimates for the fourth quarter of 2022, expected in March 2023 (Eurostat, Eurostat - Release Calendar). Set the "Seasonal adjustment" to "Seasonally and calendar adjusted data" and "Unit of measure" to "Chain linked volumes (2010), million euro." Values for each 2022 quarter that are lower than the value the preceding quarter will be considered to have been a quarter of negative real GDP growth. The final estimate for GDP for the fourth quarter of 2021, as of the launch of this question, was EUR 3,167,670.0 million, up 0.4% from the previous quarter (Eurostat - GDP main aggregates and employment estimates for the fourth quarter of 2021, see Page 10 table titled "GDP AND EXPENDITURE COMPONENTS" for "t/t-1" and "EU").
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-03-25; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Zero, One, Two, Three or more
Answer: One
Question: What will be the percentage change in real German GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021?
The fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine has taken a toll on the German economy that is expected to continue (Politico, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using Eurostat data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED). The real GDP figure for the fourth quarter of 2022 will be divided by the same figure for the fourth quarter of 2021 as first reported in 2023. As of 20 July 2022, Germany's real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 was reported as 740,245.3 million euros.
Tags: Economic Indicators, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-07-22; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Lower by 4.0% or more, Lower by between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive, Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 2.0%, Higher by between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive, Higher by more than 2.0%
Answer: Higher by between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive
Question: What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 11 April 2023?
Sanctions on Russian oil, demand concerns for China, and OPEC+ policy are all impacting prices in the near and intermediate term (CNBC, US News & World Report, CNN). The question will be suspended on 10 April 2023 and the outcome determined using US Energy Information Administration data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Foreign Policy, US Politics, Non-US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-12-02; closed: 2023-04-11
Options: Less than $40.00 per barrel, Between $40.00 and $50.00 per barrel, inclusive, More than $50.00 but less than $60.00 per barrel, Between $60.00 and $70.00 per barrel, inclusive, More than $70.00 but less than $80.00 per barrel, Between $80.00 and $90.00 per barrel, inclusive, More than $90.00 but less than $100.00 per barrel, Between $100.00 and $110.00 per barrel, inclusive, More than $110.00 but less than $120.00 per barrel, $120.00 or more per barrel
Answer: Between $80.00 and $90.00 per barrel, inclusive
Question: Will the jury in US Dominion's (Dominion's) civil trial against Fox News Network (Fox News) find Fox News liable for defamation and nonpunitive damages?
Dominion has sued Fox News for defamation over what it calls false reporting on claims that Dominion was part of a conspiracy to tamper with 2020 US presidential election results, and the trial is scheduled to begin 17 April 2023 (The Hill, Delaware Courts - Motions for Summary Judgment 31 March 2023). Dominion Voting Systems, Inc. and Dominion Voting Systems Corporation are both subsidiaries of US Dominion and are considered part of US Dominion for the purposes of this question (Casetext). "Nonpunitive damages" are any damages that are not punitive, and awards of interest, expenses, costs, and attorneys' fees would not count (O’Dwyer & Bernstien). If the case is resolved before a jury finds for damages (e.g., a settlement) or a mistrial is declared, the question would close "No." If the trial is still underway as of 31 May 2023, the suspend date will be extended accordingly.
Tags: Business, Society, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-04-07; closed: 2023-04-18
Options: Yes, finding for nonpunitive damages in the amount of less than $1 million, Yes, finding for nonpunitive damages between $1 million and $100 million, inclusive, Yes, finding for nonpunitive damages greater than $100 million but less than $1 billion, Yes, finding for nonpunitive damages of $1 billion or more, No
Answer: No
Question: How many subscribers will Netflix report for the first quarter of 2023?
As the fight for streaming subscribers continues, Netflix is cracking down on "password sharing" while cutting prices in some countries (Yahoo Finance, BBC). The question will be suspended on 16 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Netflix (Netflix - Quarterly Earnings). For the first quarter of 2022, Netflix reported 221.64 million (First Quarter 2022 Shareholder Newsletter, see “Global Streaming Paid Memberships” on the first page).
Tags: Business, Technology, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-03-08; closed: 2023-04-16
Options: Fewer than 227.5 million, Between 227.5 million and 230.0 million, inclusive, More than 230.0 million but fewer than 232.5 million, Between 232.5 million and 235.0 million, inclusive, More than 235.0 million but fewer than 237.5 million, Between 237.5 million and 240.0 million, inclusive, More than 240.0 million but fewer than 242.5 million, 242.5 million or more
Answer: Between 232.5 million and 235.0 million, inclusive
Question: Will eight or more Slovak MiG-29 fighter jets be transferred to Ukraine before 1 September 2023?
As Ukraine pleads for hesitant Western nations to give it fighter jets, Slovakia has offered to provide Ukraine with ten of its MiG-29 fighter jets (Deutsche Welle, AP, Euromaidan Press). Jets would be considered transferred to Ukraine upon being physically relocated to Ukrainian territory. Overflights of Ukraine by the aircraft under Slovak or NATO command would not count.
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-03-08; closed: 2023-04-17
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?
As China emerges from its "zero COVID" policy while dealing with a distressed property market, the prospects of new economic growth are in focus (CNBC, CNN). The question will be suspended on 16 April 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in April 2023 (Trading Economics).
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-03-08; closed: 2023-04-16
Options: Lower by more than 0.0%, Higher by between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive, Higher by more than 2.0% but less than 4.0%, Higher by between 4.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, Higher by more than 6.0% but less than 8.0%, Higher by 8.0% or more
Answer: Higher by between 4.0% and 6.0%, inclusive
Question: What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?
As China deals with new COVID outbreaks, protests against "zero COVID" & other issues, and a distressed property market, economic growth expectations have fallen (Yahoo Finance, CNN, Guardian). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in April 2023 (Trading Economics).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Society, Health, Economic Indicators, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-12-02; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Lower by more than 1.5%, Lower by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive, Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%, Higher by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive, Higher by more than 3.0% but less than 4.5%, Higher by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive, Higher by more than 6.0% but less than 7.5%, Higher by 7.5% or more
Answer: Higher by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive
Question: What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?
As China continues to deal with COVID outbreaks and a distressed property market, its economic growth has slowed (CNBC, Al Jazeera, Guardian). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in April 2023 (Trading Economics).
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-08-26; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Less than 0.0%, Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive, More than 2.0% but less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, More than 6.0% but less than 8.0%, 8.0% or more
Answer: Between 4.0% and 6.0%, inclusive
Question: Before 16 April 2023, will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Omicron represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?
The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 and its lineages have been the dominant in the US since overtaking Delta in December 2021, though concerns remain over the emergence of a new variant as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere (US News & World Report, STAT, Deseret News). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States by week here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. For the week ending 22 October 2022, Omicron variants represented a combined 100.0% percent share of COVID lineages in the US (see "%Total"). The question would close as of the week for which the threshold is reached—and weeks including "Nowcast" estimates (i.e., columns with "NOWCAST" at the top) would count—or else the week ending 15 April 2023. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2022-10-28; closed: 2023-04-14
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 15 April 2023, will Ebrahim Raisi flee Iran or cease to be its president?
Anti-government protests have grown throughout Iran in the wake of Mahsa Amini's death while in custody (US News & World Report, Time, CNBC). Whether or not Raisi has fled Iran will be determined using credible open source media reporting.
Tags: Society, Leader Entry/Exit, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-10-14; closed: 2023-04-15
Options: Yes, and Ebrahim Raisi will become the supreme leader of Iran before 15 April 2023 without fleeing, Yes, but Ebrahim Raisi will not become the supreme leader of Iran before 15 April 2023 and/or will have fled, No
Answer: No
Question: When will US federal legislation imposing new reporting requirements on stablecoin issuers become law?
The Stablecoin Transparency Act was introduced in the US Senate in March 2022 and has gained new interest in the wake of cryptocurrency volatility (S.3970 - Stablecoin Transparency Act, CoinDesk, Forkast). The date the legislation would take effect would be immaterial.
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-11-11; closed: 2023-04-15
Options: Before 3 January 2023, Between 3 January 2023 and 14 April 2023, Not before 15 April 2023
Answer: Not before 15 April 2023
Question: Before 15 April 2023, will Ali Khamenei either flee Iran or cease to be its supreme leader?
Anti-government protests have grown throughout Iran in the wake of Mahsa Amini's death while in custody (US News & World Report, Time, CNBC). Whether or not Khamenei has fled Iran will be determined using credible open source media reporting.
Tags: Society, Leader Entry/Exit, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-10-14; closed: 2023-04-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Chinese renminbi (aka yuan) exchange rate on 14 April 2023?
Like many other currencies, the Chinese renminbi has fallen versus the US dollar in 2022 (BBC, Yahoo Finance). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").
Tags: Business, Finance, Society, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-09-30; closed: 2023-04-14
Options: Lower than 6.00, Between 6.00 and 6.25, inclusive, Higher than 6.25 but lower than 6.50, Between 6.50 and 6.75, inclusive, Higher than 6.75 but lower than 7.00, Between 7.00 and 7.25, inclusive, Higher than 7.25
Answer: Higher than 6.75 but lower than 7.00
Question: Will British Columbia have more than 2,100 workplace COVID-19 claims registered for any month between December 2022 and March 2023?
The outcome will be determined using data as first reported by the Workers’ Compensation Board of British Columbia (WorkSafeBC, see "Monthly COVID-19 claims registered"). In December 2021, 213 COVID-19 claims were registered. Monthly highs for 2022 include 2,284 in January and 2,103 in February.
Tags: Business, Society, Health
Question opened: 2022-12-09; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be total OPEC crude oil production for March 2023?
OPEC and its partners announced at its 5 October 2022 ministerial meeting that it would cut 2 million barrels per day of oil production, much to the disappointment of the Biden administration (OPEC - 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, The Hill, NPR, NBC News). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using monthly data for "Total OPEC" as first reported in the "OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d" table of the "World Oil Supply" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report (OPEC - Monthly Oil Market Report). The September 2022 report shows "Total OPEC" produced 29,651 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in August 2022 (OPEC - September 2022 Monthly Oil Market Report, see Table 5 - 7 on page 50 in the document).
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, US Politics, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-10-14; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Fewer than 26,000 tb/d, Between 26,000 tb/d and 27,000 tb/d, inclusive, More than 27,000 tb/d but fewer than 28,000 tb/d, Between 28,000 tb/d and 29,000 tb/d, inclusive, More than 29,000 tb/d but fewer than 30,000 tb/d, 30,000 tb/d or more
Answer: Between 28,000 tb/d and 29,000 tb/d, inclusive
Question: What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2023?
Inflation in the US is expected to slow in 2023 versus 2022 (The Hill, US News & World Report, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for March 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items," expected in April 2023 (BLS). For March 2022, the change was 8.5%.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Finance, Society, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-12-02; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Up by less than 1.5% or down, Up by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive, Up by more than 3.0% but less than 4.5%, Up by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive, Up by more than 6.0% but less than 7.5%, Up by 7.5% or more
Answer: Up by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive
Question: What will be the percentage change in Russia’s GDP in 2022 relative to its GDP in 2021, according to the IMF?
In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, numerous countries have imposed sanctions on Russia and numerous companies have suspended operations in or pulled out of Russia (CNN, Fortune). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data, from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2023, which is expected in April 2023. At the IMF website (IMF), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Countries” file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." Russia’s GDP percentage change in constant prices for 2021 was estimated to be 4.690% according to the October 2021 report (World Economic Outlook - October 2021).
Tags: Economic Policy, Economic Indicators, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-03-11; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Lower by 20.0% or more, Lower by more than 16.0% but less than 20.0%, Lower by between 12.0% and 16.0%, inclusive, Lower by more than 8.0% but less than 12.0%, Lower by between 4.0% and 8.0%, inclusive, Higher, or lower by less than 4.0%
Answer: Higher, or lower by less than 4.0%
Question: Will the IMF raise its estimate of the world's real GDP percentage change in 2022 relative to 2021 in its first 2023 World Economic Outlook?
Inflation, war, and other factors continue to be a drag on world economic growth (Economist, IMF World Economic Outlook October 2022). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using IMF world GDP percent change data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2023, which is expected in April 2023, and comparing it to the October 2022 World Economic Outlook world GDP percentage change. At the IMF website (IMF - World Economic Outlooks), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." World GDP percentage change in constant prices for 2022 was estimated to be 3.192% according to the October 2022 report (IMF - World Economic Outlook Database October 2022). The data may also be seen using the IMF's reporting tool here: (IMF).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-11-18; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for March 2023?
As the Federal Reserve increases interest rates to fight inflation, there are concerns that the US labor market will suffer (USA Today, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when first released, expected on 7 April 2023 (BLS).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-10-14; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Less than 3.5%, Between 3.5% and 3.9%, inclusive, More than 3.9% but less than 4.5%, Between 4.5% and 4.9%, inclusive, More than 4.9% but less than 5.5%, Between 5.5% and 5.9%, inclusive, Higher than 5.9%
Answer: Between 3.5% and 3.9%, inclusive