jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Will a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on the NYSE and/or NASDAQ stock exchanges before 31 December 2022?
While cryptocurrency ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, attempts to create a crypto ETF in the US continue (The Block, CP24, MarketWatch). ETFs for cryptocurrency derivatives (e.g., futures) or of firms that have cryptocurrency exposure would not count. Whether an ETF includes one or several cryptocurrencies would be immaterial, but stablecoins and/or central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) would not count (Investopedia - Stablecoin, Investopedia - CBDC).
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology, Society, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-10-08; closed: 2022-12-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?
Amazon is facing continued antitrust scrutiny in 2021, and there have been calls for it, among other things, to spin off its cloud computing platform, AWS (WBUR, Protocol, Business Insider, Investopedia). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
Tags: Business, Technology, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-07-21; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2023, will the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office officially change its name to include the word Taiwan?
Recent media reporting indicates discussions regarding the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the US potentially changing its name to "Taiwan Representative Office" (Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States, Financial Times, CGTN, Council on Foreign Relations).
Tags: Foreign Policy, US Politics, Security and Conflict, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-09-30; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?
The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes (MY EV). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET (Alternative Fuels Data Center). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the "Advanced Filters" tab.  First select "Location" on the left and set "Country" to be "United States" while keeping "State/Territory" to be "All." Then select "Fuel" on the left. Under "Filter by Fuel Type" select "Electric" and set "Charger types" to be only "DC Fast" while keeping "Connectors" and "Networks" to be "All."This question is the longer-term companion of question #1677. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
Tags: Business, Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2020-07-02; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Fewer than 5,300, Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive, More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100, Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive, More than 6,500
Answer: More than 6,500
Question: What will voter turnout be in the 2022 US midterm elections?
Turnout will be a major factor in the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections (The Hill, Politico). Over the past 40 years, the highest turnout in midterm elections was 49.4%, and the lowest was in 2014 with 36.0%. The outcome will be determined by data from the United States Elections Project (United States Elections Project). The data will be linked as "General" next to "2022" and found under the "VEP Highest Office" (title may vary) column for "United States," typically in the first row (United States Elections Project - Numerator, United States Elections Project - Denominator). The outcome will be determined using the data available as of 31 December 2022. If no data are available on 31 December 2022, the outcome will be determined using data when first available.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2022-05-06; closed: 2022-11-09
Options: Less than 36.0%, Between 36.0% and 40.0%, inclusive, More than 40.0% but less than 44.0%, Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive, More than 48.0% but less than 52.0%, 52.0% or more
Answer: Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive
Question: Before 1 January 2023, will China and/or a host country officially announce an agreement for the establishment of a Chinese military base in an African country besides Djibouti?
China's only military base in Africa is in the country of Djibouti, but it is looking at possible bases in other African countries (Diplomat, AP). Military bases for civilian or mixed-use military and civilian purposes would count (Reuters). Public disclosure of ongoing negotiations would not be sufficient to resolve the question as "yes" (BBC).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-10-29; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2023, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed?
China and the GCC began negotiations for a free trade agreement in 2005 (China Ministry of Commerce, Atlantic Council, ANI News, GCC). The signing of an FTA or the announcement of an agreement in principle (see EU-Mercosur announcement) would count, and ratification would be immaterial (e.g., New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, BBC).
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-10-29; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2023, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?
Taiwan has raised concerns regarding potential actions by the People's Republic of China in the Pratas Islands (News.com.au, Bloomberg, Diplomat).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-11-19; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Finland and/or Sweden become members of NATO before 1 January 2023?
On 18 May 2022, the countries of Finland and Sweden both submitted applications to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), though Turkey has raised some objections (NATO, CNBC, Al Jazeera).  The latest country to join NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020 (NATO).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-05-27; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, Finland only, Yes, Sweden only, Yes, both Finland and Sweden, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2023, will the US officially rejoin the JCPOA?
Obstacles standing in the way of the US rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current US sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium (Council on Foreign Relations, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Arms Control Association, Congressional Research Service). The US rejoining the JCPOA under revised terms would count.
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, US Politics, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-01-14; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2023?
President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 (Britannica). Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has received broad international condemnation (Guardian).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-02-26; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2023, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany?
Amid high tensions between Russia and the West regarding Ukraine and other matters, gas giant Gazprom is awaiting regulatory approval to begin delivering natural gas to Germany through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Politico.eu, S&P Global). Testing alone would not count. Delivery through either string of pipe would count.
Tags: Business, Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-01-21; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2023, will the US Senate independently expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?
After using a legislative workaround to bypass the 60-vote requirement for an increase in the debt ceiling, Democrats are struggling to find other ways to bypass the filibuster (CNN, The Hill). A change requiring action outside of the Senate (e.g., congressional legislation) would not count (e.g., Senate Bill 610).
Tags: US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-01-21; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Afghanistan in 2022?
War and drought have left millions in Afghanistan facing potential famine (Guardian, NBC News, IPC). For general information on how famines are declared, see: http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.
Tags: Society, Health, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-01-28; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in December 2022?
As COVID-19 becomes less of a concern in the US, the airline industry is struggling to return to pre-pandemic operations (US News & World Report, CNBC, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (TSA). Totals for December in the previous three years were 70,250,692 in 2019; 26,417,472 in 2020; and 58,863,955 in 2021.
Tags: Business, Society, Entertainment, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-06-24; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Fewer than 50 million, Between 50 million and 55 million, inclusive, More than 55 million but fewer than 60 million, Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive, More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million, Between 70 million and 75 million, inclusive, More than 75 million
Answer: More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million
Question: Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2023?
Two years after a deadly clash left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain high (Diplomat, The National, Outlook India, Al Jazeera). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-06-28; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 22 July 2022 and 31 December 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?
In May 2021, Lithuania announced it would leave the China-CEEC group, turning the "17+1" initiative into "16+1" (Taipei Times, China Daily). Current members as of the question's launch are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia (Politico, Al Jazeera). The date the withdrawal would take effect would be immaterial, and a member's withdrawal announcement that is rescinded during the question's open period would not count.
Tags: Business, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-07-22; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: 0, 1 or 2, 3 or 4, 5 or more
Answer: 1 or 2
Question: Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 January 2023?
The PRC responded to US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, which the PRC considers its sovereign territory, with condemnation and newly-announced military drills around the island nation (AP, CNN, Council on Foreign Relations). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
Tags: Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-08-05; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2023, will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person?
As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, Ukrainian President Zelensky has floated the idea of meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in person (Newsweek, US News & World Report, Guardian). The meeting must be face-to-face but can occur in any venue and does not need to be bilateral to count. An acting president under the constitution of the relevant country would count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-09-16; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a railroad union strike in the United States in 2022?
Twelve labor unions and dozens of railroad companies have been negotiating for new collective bargaining agreements since 2019, and there is a threat of strikes unless agreements are reached (Axios, AP, National Railway Labor Conference, CNBC). The earliest a strike could begin is November 2022 (Politico). For the purposes of this question, a strike need not include all railroad workers to count. The duration of a strike would be immaterial so long as the strike actually begins.
Tags: Business, Society, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-10-28; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Lebanon's parliament, the Chamber of Deputies, elect a new President of the Republic before 1 January 2023?
The Chamber of Deputies has yet to form a new government or elect a new President of the Republic since delayed elections were held in May 2022, and President Michel Aoun left office at the expiration of his term in October 2022 (AP, France24, Arab News). The question would close "No" upon the calling of new parliamentary elections in the country without a new president having been elected. Replacement of the president by means other than election by the Chamber of Deputies would not count (Constitution of Lebanon).
Tags: Society, Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-11-04; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the closing yield for the US 10 yr Treasury on 30 December 2022?
The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC). As of 28 September 2021, the yield was 1.539%.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-10-01; closed: 2022-12-30
Options: Lower than 0%, Between 0% and 1%, inclusive, Higher than 1% but lower than 2%, Between 2% and 3%, inclusive, Higher than 3% but lower than 4%, 4% or higher
Answer: Higher than 3% but lower than 4%
Question: Will employees at Amazon's Bessemer, Alabama, warehouse vote in the affirmative to unionize in their next scheduled election?
In early January, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) announced a new unionization vote for workers at an Amazon warehouse in Alabama, with ballots due by 25 March 2022 and counting scheduled for 28 March 2022 (CNBC, The Verge).
Tags: Business, Society, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-01-14; closed: 2022-03-25
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?
Rising demand, supply chain problems, and Russian supplies limited by the war in Ukraine have pushed US natural gas prices to multiyear highs (Natural Gas Intelligence, BBC, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 22 December 2022 and the outcome determined using US Energy Information Administration data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED).
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-06-17; closed: 2022-12-23
Options: Less than 4.00, Between 4.00 and 5.50, inclusive, More than 5.50 but less than 7.00, Between 7.00 and 8.50, inclusive, More than 8.50 but less than 10.00, Between 10.00 and 11.50, inclusive, More than 11.50 but less than 13.00, Between 13.00 and 14.50, inclusive, More than 14.50
Answer: Between 7.00 and 8.50, inclusive
Question: Will Ranil Wickremesinghe cease to be the president of Sri Lanka before 29 December 2022?
After former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled Sri Lanka and resigned his office amid widespread economic protests, the Parliament of Sri Lanka elected former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe to serve out the remainder of Rajapaksa's term (France 24, Voice of America).
Tags: Society, Economic Policy, Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-07-29; closed: 2022-12-29
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will US real GDP contract in both the third quarter (Q3) and fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022?
High inflation, monetary tightening, the war in Ukraine, and ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have raised concerns over economic growth in the US this year (CNBC, CNN, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data for Q3 and Q4 of 2022 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database upon the release of the BEA’s third estimate for Q4 2022 (FRED, BEA). The question would close "No" if the third estimate for Q3 2022 indicates no US real GDP contraction.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-04-08; closed: 2022-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will the Italy-Germany 10-year bond spread be on 16 December 2022?
As the ECB moves to change course on monetary policy, government bond yields in southern Europe have jumped (MarketWatch, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using "Italy-Germany 10 Year Bond Spread" data as reported by YCharts for 16 December 2022 (YCharts).
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-06-24; closed: 2022-12-16
Options: Less than 1.00%, Between 1.00% and 1.50%, inclusive, More than 1.50% but less than 2.00%, Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive, More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%, Between 3.00% and 3.50%, inclusive, More than 3.50%
Answer: Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive
Question: Before 1 January 2023, will the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PA) announce an increase in bridge and/or tunnel tolls for Class 1 vehicles for 2022 or 2023?
The PA is responsible for managing transportation infrastructure in the New York City area, including bridges and tunnels (Port Authority, Port Authority - Bridge and Tunnels FAQ, Syracuse.com). As of the launch of this question, the tolls for Class 1 vehicles were $11.75 for EZ Pass Off-peak, $13.75 for EZ Pass On-peak, and $16.00 for cash (Port Authority - Bridge and Tunnels Tolls). To count, an announced increase must be scheduled to take effect before 1 January 2024.
Tags: Business, Finance
Question opened: 2022-02-18; closed: 2022-12-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 19 December 2022?
The price of gasoline in the US hit all-time highs in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ABC News, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for "Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices" (EIA, see table).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-04-15; closed: 2022-12-19
Options: Less than 3.000, Between 3.000 and 3.400, inclusive, More than 3.400 but less than 3.800, Between 3.800 and 4.200, inclusive, More than 4.200 but less than 4.600, Between 4.600 and 5.000, inclusive, More than 5.000
Answer: Between 3.000 and 3.400, inclusive
Question: What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Avatar: The Way of Water, according to Box Office Mojo?
Avatar: The Way of Water is the first sequel to the 2009 blockbuster Avatar (IMDb - Avatar). The question will be suspended on 16 December 2022 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the weekend of 16-18 December 2022 (Box Office Mojo, see "Domestic Weekend"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 16 December 2022.
Tags: Business, Entertainment
Question opened: 2022-12-02; closed: 2022-12-17
Options: Less than $100 million, Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive, More than $150 million but less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $250 million, inclusive, More than $250 million
Answer: Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive
Question: Which NFL team will win the NFC West division in the 2022 season?
The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (NFL).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2022-09-02; closed: 2022-12-16
Options: Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks
Answer: San Francisco 49ers
Question: Which NFL team will win the AFC West division in the 2022 season?
The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (NFL).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2022-09-02; closed: 2022-12-18
Options: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers
Answer: Kansas City Chiefs
Question: Which country will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
The 2022 Men's FIFA World Cup is scheduled to take place in Qatar from 21 November 2022 to 18 December 2022 (FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022). Thirty-two teams will qualify to compete (FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 - Final Draw/Groups).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2022-05-13; closed: 2022-12-18
Options: Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Another country, No country will win the World Cup in 2022
Answer: Argentina
Question: Before 17 December 2022, will Saudi Arabia publicly announce that it will begin accepting yuan as payment for oil from China?
Saudi Arabia and the People's Republic of China are reportedly discussing the use of Chinese yuan as payment for Saudi oil (Wall Street Journal, The Hill, Al-Monitor). The question would close upon a public announcement from Saudi Arabia. An announcement would not have to indicate that Saudi Arabia would exclusively accept yuan for payment. The date any agreement to accept payment in yuan would take effect is immaterial, but conditional and/or indeterminate announcements (e.g., if conditionals are met in the future, at some point in the future) would not count.
Tags: Business, Finance, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-04-01; closed: 2022-12-17
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the closing value of the US dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate on 16 December 2022?
As US and Japanese monetary policy strategies diverge, the yen has hit multi-decade lows against the dollar (France 24, Yahoo! Finance, Wall Street Journal). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-06-17; closed: 2022-12-16
Options: Lower than 100.00, Between 100.00 and 110.00, inclusive, Higher than 110.00 but lower than 120.00, Between 120.00 and 130.00, inclusive, Higher than 130.00 but lower than 140.00, Between 140.00 and 150.00, inclusive, Higher than 150.00 but lower than 160.00, 160.00 or more
Answer: Higher than 130.00 but lower than 140.00