jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Will President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping sign a trade agreement before 1 January 2020?
Despite Chile's cancellation of the Asia Pacific Economic Corridor summit, there remains optimism that China and the United States will soon sign a trade agreement of some sort (Diplomat, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, Japan Times). As of this question's launch on 8 November 2019, a new round of tariffs on Chinese imports is scheduled to go into effect 15 December 2019 (CNBC).
Tags: Economic Policy, Foreign Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2019-11-08; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 31 December 2019, will a Model 3 produced in Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory 3 be delivered to a customer?
Tesla's Gigafactory 3, located in Shanghai, China, is an object of great attention for industry observers (TESLARATI, Asia Times, TESLARATI, Electrek, InsideEVs).
Tags: Technology
Question opened: 2019-09-20; closed: 2019-12-29
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 1 February 2020, will Ukraine adopt a new law giving or extending Donbas special status for local self-government?
In 2014, a special status for local self-government was granted to the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine, encompassing the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (Economist, Kyiv Post). In 2018, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada adopted bill No. 9153 extending the law governing Donbas' special status through 31 December 2019 (Unian). Russia wants to see Ukrainian constitution amended to encapsulate the special status, however, Ukraine contends a new version of the law reflecting new realities is necessary (Atlantic Council, UKRINFORM, Unian).
Tags: Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2019-11-22; closed: 2019-12-18
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 20 December 2019, will the U.S. Congress present the president with legislation banning the manufacture, possession, and/or sale of high capacity magazines for firearms?
In the wake of mass shootings in California, Ohio, and Texas, there has been increased political pressure for various gun control measures (Newsweek, CNBC). President Trump's potential support for particular gun control measures is a matter of speculation (The Hill, Axios, CNN). For the purposes of this question, a "high capacity magazine" is one capable of holding more than ten rounds. A ban need not cover all high capacity magazines to count toward resolution of the question.
Tags: US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2019-08-23; closed: 2019-12-20
Options: Yes, and the president will sign it before 1 January 2020, Yes, and the president will veto it before 1 January 2020, Yes, and the president will neither sign nor veto it before 1 January 2020, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the United States experience two consecutive quarters of a negative real GDP growth rate in 2019?
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases three estimates for each quarter: advance, second, and third, and the release dates for 2019 can be found here: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This question will be resolved based on the third estimates for Q1, Q2, and Q3, typically released 3 months after the end of each quarter, and the advance estimate for Q4, expected in mid-January 2020. The third estimate for Q3 2018 indicated that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The last time the quarter-on-quarter U.S. GDP growth rate was negative was Q1 2014 (The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis).
Tags: Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2019-01-04; closed: 2019-12-20
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the UK prime minister or chancellor of the exchequer announce the government's choice for the next governor of the Bank of England?
The new governor of the Bank of England is expected to take office on 1 February 2020, though an announcement of the government's intended appointee has been delayed (Economist, NY Times, Parliament.uk). The prime minister and the chancellor of the exchequer advise the monarch, who officially appoints the governor of the Bank of England (Cabinetoffice.gov.uk, Gov.uk). An announcement for either a new term or extension of the current term for Governor Mark Carney would count.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit
Question opened: 2019-11-22; closed: 2019-12-20
Options: Before 1 January 2020, Between 1 January 2020 and 31 January 2020, Between 1 February 2020 and 29 February 2020, Not before 1 March 2020
Answer: Before 1 January 2020
Question: Before 1 January 2020, will the U.S. House of Representatives pass an article of impeachment against President Trump?
In September 2019, Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry into President Trump (CNN, BBC, NPR).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics
Question opened: 2019-10-18; closed: 2019-12-19
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will Algeria hold a presidential election on 12 December 2019?
After President Abdulaziz Bouteflika resigned in April 2019, an election was scheduled for 4 July 2019 but was later canceled; a new election date has been set for 12 December 2019 (Al Jazeera, France24, Reuters, Global Voices). The National Liberation Front (FLN) is the party of Bouteflika (Britannica). If an election is held, the question will resolve on first round election results.
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2019-10-18; closed: 2019-12-12
Options: Yes, and a candidate who is a member of the National Liberation Front (FLN) party will receive the most votes, Yes, and a candidate who is not a member of the National Liberation Front (FLN) party will receive the most votes, No
Answer: Yes, and a candidate who is a member of the National Liberation Front (FLN) party will receive the most votes
Question: How many of the following 10 marginal seats in the House of Commons will change parties in the upcoming 2019 UK elections?
The 10 marginal seats relevant to the resolution of this question follow below (Guardian). For the purposes of this question, each seat is considered to be held by a party as listed.Conservative Party marginal seats (3): Hastings and Rye; Richmond Park; CheltenhamScottish Nationalist Party marginal seats (1): North East FifeLabour Party marginal seats (5): Canterbury; Workington; Bolsover; Kensington; Crewe and NantwitchLiberal Democrat Party marginal seats (1): Brecon and Radnorshire
Tags: Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2019-11-15; closed: 2019-12-12
Options: None, 1 or 2, 3 or 4, 5 or 6, 7 or more
Answer: 7 or more
Question: At close of business on 12 December 2019, will the European Central Bank's (ECB's) deposit facility rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 24 October 2019?
The deposit facility rate defines the interest banks receive for depositing money with the central bank overnight (ECB, ECB (Rates)). The deposit facility rate is one of the three interest rates the ECB sets every six weeks as part of its monetary policy. Its December monetary meeting is scheduled for 12 December 2019 (ECB (Calendar)).
Tags: Finance
Question opened: 2019-10-25; closed: 2019-12-12
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: Will a political party gain an overall majority of seats in the House of Commons at the next UK General Election?
The next UK General Election is planned for 12 December 2019 (BBC, BBC, BBC, Financial Times).
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2019-10-30; closed: 2019-12-12
Options: Yes, the Conservative Party, Yes, the Labour Party, Yes, a political party not listed above, No political party will gain an overall majority
Answer: Yes, the Conservative Party
Question: On 10 December 2019, how many total locations with Combined Charging System (CCS) fast chargers will be installed in the European area?
The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations (Reuters, Inside EVs). Europe has gone from zero Combined Charging System (CCS) fast charger locations in 2014 to 5,712 as of 14 December 2018. This question will be suspended on 9 December 2019 and closed using the total installed charger locations listed on 10 December 2019 from the "CCS Charge Map – Europe" website. If during the question's open period the source adds additional countries to the European area list, they will count.
Tags: Technology
Question opened: 2018-12-14; closed: 2019-12-10
Options: Less than 7,000, Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive, Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive, Between 9,000 and 9,999, inclusive, 10,000 or more
Answer: Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive
Question: Between 5 July 2019 and 30 November 2019, how many Category 4 or above hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean according to the National Hurricane Center?
After a highly destructive 2018 hurricane season, a lot of attention is being paid to the 2019 hurricane season and beyond (BBC, NOAA, BBC, CNN, USA Today, ABC News, Guardian). This question will resolve based on available categorizations as of 9 December 2019 by the National Hurricane Center (NOAA).
Tags: Environment
Question opened: 2019-07-05; closed: 2019-11-30
Options: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more
Answer: 2
Question: Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Phillipines from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-03-31; closed: 2017-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-12-28; closed: 2018-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-12-28; closed: 2018-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-12-28; closed: 2018-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Central African Republic from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-12-28; closed: 2018-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-12-28; closed: 2018-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-12-28; closed: 2018-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-12-28; closed: 2018-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No