jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: How many total hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2023 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?
Researchers at Colorado State University have predicted a "slightly below-average" Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2023 to 30 November 2023  (The Hill, Colorado State University). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center no later than 16 December 2023 (National Hurricane Center, National Hurricane Center - Reports).
Tags: Environment
Question opened: 2023-05-12; closed: 2023-12-01
Options: 3 or fewer, Between 4 and 6, Between 7 and 9, Between 10 and 12, Between 13 and 15, 16 or more
Answer: Between 7 and 9
Question: Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 December 2023?
The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (CNBC, Politico). For the purposes of this question, "territorial waters" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan. Military drones would count, but balloons would not count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, US Politics, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-03-31; closed: 2023-12-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 December 2023?
Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea (VNExpress, AP, CSIS, Council on Foreign Relations, Diplomat). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-12-16; closed: 2023-12-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 9 April 2024, will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge a hostage/prisoner exchange with a group holding one or more Israelis captured in the attack in southern Israel in early October 2023?
Hamas, the de facto ruler of the Gaza Strip, has reportedly taken over 100 Israelis hostage during its attack on southern Israel in October 2023 (Guardian, NBC News). The exchange of persons must be completed to count, though it need not involve all captured Israelis. Releasing persons to third parties, including the transfer of jailed prisoners to other countries, in accordance with an agreement would count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-10-08; closed: 2023-11-24
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: When will Israel publicly announce the beginning of a ceasefire in the whole Gaza Strip?
As Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip continue, there are repeated calls for a ceasefire that Israel says it would entertain if all of its hostages were released (Axios). Whether the ceasefire is unilateral or part of an agreement between belligerents is immaterial, and whether the ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial. Conditional announcements (e.g., if all hostages are released) would not count.
Tags: Society, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-11-07; closed: 2023-11-24
Options: Before 14 November 2023, Between 14 November 2023 and 27 November 2023, Between 28 November 2023 and 11 December 2023, Between 12 December 2023 and 25 December 2023, Not before 26 December 2023
Answer: Between 14 November 2023 and 27 November 2023
Question: How many seats will the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BoerBurgerBeweging in Dutch, or BBB) party win in the 2023 Dutch House of Representatives elections?
The BBB surprised many with a strong showing in the March 2023 Senate elections and is polling highly with new House of Representatives elections expected in November 2023 following Prime Minister Mark Rutte's resignation in July 2023 (BBC, AP, NPR). Unlike many parliamentary systems, the Dutch have a relatively low minimum threshold for a party to win a seat (Kiesraad.nl [in Dutch]). The next Dutch House of Representatives elections are scheduled for 22 November 2023 (Yahoo).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-07-14; closed: 2023-11-22
Options: Fewer than 18, Between 18 and 21, Between 22 and 25, Between 26 and 29, Between 30 and 33, More than 33
Answer: Fewer than 18
Question: When will North Korea next successfully put a satellite into orbit?
As of 28 September, North Korea  had twice failed in attempts to launch a spy satellite in 2023, but it plans to try again (NPR, AP). North Korea has previously put at least two satellites into orbit (38 North). The purpose and operability of a satellite put into orbit is immaterial.
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-09-29; closed: 2023-11-21
Options: Before 1 January 2024, Between 1 January 2024 and 31 March 2024, Between 1 April 2024 and 30 June 2024, Not before 1 July 2024
Answer: Before 1 January 2024
Question: What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 22 November 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?
Average gas prices nationwide fell in October 2023 despite the outbreak of violence in the Middle East, but concerns over energy supplies remain (USA Today). The question will be suspended on 21 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 22 November 2023 (AAA, see "Today's AAA National Average" graphic).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-11-08; closed: 2023-11-22
Options: Less than $3.03, Between $3.03 and $3.18, inclusive, More than $3.18 but less than $3.33, Between $3.33 and $3.48, inclusive, More than $3.48 but less than $3.63, Between $3.63 and $3.78, inclusive, More than $3.78
Answer: More than $3.18 but less than $3.33
Question: Will US federal criminal charges be filed against Changpeng Zhao for actions related to the operation of Binance and/or Binance.US before 30 December 2023?
Zhao, the founder of Binance, is already facing civil complaints from the CFTC and SEC related to the operation of the cryptocurrency exchange, though no criminal charges have yet been filed (Ars Technica, Coin Telegraph, Coin Telegraph, CFTC, SEC). Any criminal charge or indictment under seal would only count upon the unsealing of the charge or indictment during the question's open period (Cornell, see Definition (1), Legal Beagle).
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-06-23; closed: 2023-11-21
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 20 November 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting lower gas prices in the second half of 2023, though OPEC is acting to support petroleum prices (EIA - Short-term Energy Outlook May 2023, Energy Now). The question will be suspended on 19 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 20 November 2023 (AAA, see "Today's AAA National Average" graphic).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-05-19; closed: 2023-11-20
Options: Less than $2.40, Between $2.40 and $2.70, inclusive, More than $2.70 but less than $3.00, Between $3.00 and $3.30, inclusive, More than $3.30 but less than $3.60, Between $3.60 and $3.90, inclusive, More than $3.90 but less than $4.20, Between $4.20 and $4.50, inclusive, More than $4.50
Answer: More than $3.30 but less than $3.60
Question: Before 20 November 2023, will Egypt officially allow Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip who are not foreign nationals of a UN member state to enter Egypt?
Pressure is mounting on Egypt, which is the only country other than Israel to share a border with the Gaza Strip, to allow refugees from Gaza into the country (ABC News, NBC News, Voice of America). Opening its border for individualized circumstances (e.g., medical evacuations) alone would not count. Allowing refugees to enter Egypt in order to continue on to a different location would count. An announcement alone without evidence that Palestinians have actually crossed into Egypt would not count.
Tags: Society, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-10-20; closed: 2023-11-20
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Which candidate will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?
A presidential runoff election between the Peronist Sergio Massa and libertarian Javier Milei is set for 19 November 2023 (AP, BBC). Under Argentine law, a candidate for President or Vice-president can be replaced in certain circumstances, including the death of the candidate. In that event, a forecast for a candidate who ceases to be a candidate would be considered a forecast for the replacement candidate chosen by Argentine law (Argentina.gob.ar, see Article 61).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-10-25; closed: 2023-11-19
Options: Sergio Massa, Javier Milei
Answer: Javier Milei
Question: Which candidate will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?
Argentinians are set to elect a new president this year, with incumbent President Alberto Fernández not seeking reelection as the country deals with inflation and poor economic conditions (AP, El País, US News & World Report, Americas Quarterly). Party primaries are scheduled for 13 August 2023, with the next presidential election scheduled for 22 October 2023 and a runoff on 19 November 2023 if needed (Buenos Aires Times).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-07-07; closed: 2023-11-19
Options: Patricia Bullrich, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Someone else
Answer: Javier Milei
Question: Which driver will finish in second (2nd) place for the 2023 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?
Max Verstappen, who won the 2022 World Drivers' Championship, held a commanding lead in the standings as of the British Grand Prix on 9 July 2023 (Bleacher Report). The question will be suspended on 25 November 2023, the day before the final race in the season (Formula 1 - Driver Standings, Formula 1 - Abu Dhabi Grand Prix).
Tags: Business, Technology, Sports
Question opened: 2023-07-14; closed: 2023-11-19
Options: Fernando Alonso, Lewis Hamilton, Sergio Pérez, George Russell, Carlos Sainz, Max Verstappen, Another driver
Answer: Sergio Pérez
Question: Which team will win the 2023 Men's Cricket World Cup?
The International Cricket Council's (ICC's) Men's Cricket World Cup in India is scheduled to begin 5 October 2023, with the final scheduled for 19 November 2023 (Cricket World Cup, ICC - The Three Formats of Cricket). If the final is canceled or postponed beyond 2023, the question will be voided.
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-09-08; closed: 2023-11-19
Options: Australia, England, India, New Zealand, Pakistan, South Africa, Another country
Answer: Australia
Question: Will the Harvard Crimson defeat the Yale Bulldogs in "The Game" in 2023?
The 139th playing of "The Game," the annual college football game between the Harvard Crimson and Yale Bulldogs, is scheduled to take place at Yale Bowl Stadium on Saturday 18 November 2023 (Harvard Alumni). Yale leads Harvard in wins since 1875 with an all-time record of 69-61-8 (NCAA).
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2023-11-08; closed: 2023-11-18
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 February 2024?
SpaceX is preparing to launch its next orbital flight test but is still awaiting a license from the FAA in order to proceed (Space.com, Spaceflight Now, CNN). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2023-10-20; closed: 2023-11-18
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: When will the city block including Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City be under the control of the Israeli forces?
Israeli forces are building in the north of the Gaza Strip as of late October 2023 (MSN, US News & World Report). Israel asserts that Hamas is using the Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City as a command center (US News & World Report, CNN). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of "Israel's Operation in Gaza" and open source reporting (ISW). The location of the city block including Al-Shifa hospital may be pulled up using the following coordinates: (31°31′27″N 34°26′39″E), to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the coordinates in the parentheses. Per Google Maps, the block is bound by the following roads: Abu Baker Al-Razi, Ibn Sina, Shifa-Ezz Eldine Al-Qassam, and Ahmed Abd Al-Azez (Google Maps). Whether the structures on the block are damaged or destroyed is immaterial. ISW designating the block with "Reported Israeli Clearing Operations" alone would not count without corroboration as to control of the location. If ISW changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2023-10-31; closed: 2023-11-16
Options: Before 14 November 2023, Between 14 November 2023 and 30 November 2023, Between 1 December 2023 and 20 December 2023, Between 21 December 2023 and 12 January 2024, Between 13 January 2024 and 8 February 2024, Not before 9 February 2024
Answer: Between 14 November 2023 and 30 November 2023
Question: What will be the closing yield for the Chinese 10-year bond on 13 November 2023?
Fears are growing that China's troubled property sector may lead to continued problems in its financial system (US News & World Report, Xinhua, Guardian). The question will be suspended on 12 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics in the US (Trading Economics, set chart to "1Y" and hover cursor over the chart for data). The closing yield for the Chinese 10-year bond on 19 October 2023 was 2.7410%.
Tags: Business, Finance, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-10-25; closed: 2023-11-13
Options: Less than 2.520%, Between 2.520% and 2.660%, inclusive, More than 2.660% but less than 2.800%, Between 2.800% and 2.940%, inclusive, More than 2.940%
Answer: Between 2.520% and 2.660%, inclusive
Question: Between 12 May 2023 and 12 November 2023, will violence related to anti-government protests and/or civil unrest result in 250 or more fatalities in Tunisia?
The potential for turmoil in Tunisia has raised fears of a broader crisis in the region (US News & World Report, Soufan Center). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. If there is clear and credible evidence that the death of a detained protester is due to an injury incurred during a protest, only then would the death of such a prisoner count. For the purposes of this question, "civil unrest" would mean acts of violence including riots, arson, and armed insurrection.
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-05-11; closed: 2023-11-13
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the closing yield for the Chinese 10-year bond on 10 November 2023?
Despite China's abandonment of "Zero COVID," concerns about the country's economic health persist (NASDAQ, Yahoo Finance, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 9 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to "1Y" and hover cursor over the chart for data). The closing yield for the Chinese 10-year bond on 28 April 2023 was 2.7850%.
Tags: Business, Finance, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-05-19; closed: 2023-11-10
Options: Less than 2.500%, Between 2.500% and 2.800%, inclusive, More than 2.800% but less than 3.100%, Between 3.100% and 3.400%, inclusive, More than 3.400%
Answer: Between 2.500% and 2.800%, inclusive
Question: How many of Ballotpedia's 14 "noteworthy" Republican candidates as of 5 October 2023 will have ceased to be presidential candidates as of 10 November 2023?
As of 6 October 2023, the 14 "noteworthy" Republican candidates were Ryan Binkley, Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Larry Elder, Nikki Haley, Will Hurd, Asa Hutchinson, Perry Johnson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Corey Stapleton, and Donald Trump (Ballotpedia, Politico). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that a candidate no longer seeks the Republican Party nomination for president or that a candidate is suspending his or her campaign. Ceasing to be a candidate on 10 November 2023 would count.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-10-06; closed: 2023-11-11
Options: None or 1, 2 or 3, 4 or 5, 6 or more
Answer: 4 or 5
Question: Before 11 November 2023, will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P announce that Tunisia has defaulted on its international debt?
International debt payments are coming due for Tunisia amid protracted negotiations with the IMF and general political and economic distress (Africa News, Al Arabiya, Al Jazeera). Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are the "Big Three" global credit rating agencies, which assign ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts (Investopedia - Credit Ratings Scale). Restricted and selective defaults would count, as would a technical default (Fitch, see "RD," Credit Risk Monitor - S&P, see "SD," Cbonds - Technical Default). For the purposes of this question, "international debt" means debt denominated in a currency other than Tunisian dinars (e.g., Cbonds - Tunisia Yen Bonds, Cbonds - Tunisia Euro Bonds).
Tags: Business, Finance, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-05-11; closed: 2023-11-11
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 10 November 2023, will the US impose new export restrictions that would prohibit the export of Nvidia's current A800 microchips to Chinese entities or China without a license?
The Wall Street Journal reported in late June 2023 that the US was considering imposing new restrictions on the export of microchips used in, among other things, the development of artificial intelligence (Wall Street Journal, US News & World Report, The Verge). For the purposes of this question, "Chinese entities" are those on the "Entity List" maintained by the Commerce Department (Code of Federal Regulations - Entity List, see "CHINA, PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF," Bureau of Industry and Security). "Current A800 microchips" are those with the specifications laid out here as of the launch of this question: VideoCardz. Restrictions would be considered imposed upon the effective date of a rule published by the US government (e.g., Bureau of Industry and Security - Press Release 7 October 2022). An outright ban on the export of A800 microchips to all Chinese firms would count.
Tags: Business, Technology, Foreign Policy, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-07-07; closed: 2023-11-10
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the US office vacancy rate in the third quarter of 2023 be 16.5% or higher, according to Colliers?
The US office vacancy rate in the US rose to 16.4% in the second quarter of 2023, higher than its peak of the global financial crisis (16.3%) as the office property market faces a major downturn (Colliers - US Office Market Outlook Q2 2023, The Week). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using US office vacancy data as first reported by Colliers, expected in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-09-08; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will the Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the Virginia state House and/or Senate in the 2023 legislative elections?
Elections for the Virginia General Assembly, which consists of the House of Delegates (House) and Senate, are scheduled to be held on 7 November 2023 (Ballotpedia - Virginia House Elections, Ballotpedia - Virginia Senate Elections). As of the launch of this question, Republicans controlled the House and Democrats the Senate (Virginia Mercury, AP). Non-Democratic candidates would not count, irrespective of any caucus affiliation.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-06-02; closed: 2023-11-07
Options: Yes, only the House, Yes, only the Senate, Yes, both the House and Senate, No
Answer: Yes, both the House and Senate
Question: What percentage of the vote will the Democratic candidate win in the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election?
Incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear is running for reelection in a state that went for Donald Trump in 2020 (US News & World Report, Ballotpedia).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-10-11; closed: 2023-11-07
Options: 50.0% or less and will not win the election, 50.0% or less but will win the election, More than 50.0% but less than 53.0%, 53.0% or more
Answer: More than 50.0% but less than 53.0%
Question: What percentage of the vote will the Democratic candidate win in the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election?
Incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear is running for reelection in a state that went for Donald Trump in 2020 (WYMT, Morning Consult, Ballotpedia).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-01-20; closed: 2023-11-07
Options: 50.0% or less and will not win the election, 50.0% or less but will win the election, More than 50.0% but less than 55.0%, 55.0% or more
Answer: More than 50.0% but less than 55.0%
Question: Before 1 November 2023, will NATO and/or a NATO member state accuse Republic of Serbia national military forces and/or law enforcement of entering Kosovo without authorization?
Violence in Kosovo escalated in late May 2023 as Serb protesters clashed with NATO's KFOR peacekeeping forces while Serbia has put its forces on high alert amid domestic political protests of its own (AP, BBC, NATO - KFOR, EURACTIV). Serbia requested to deploy forces in December 2022, but KFOR declined (Politico).
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-06-02; closed: 2023-11-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 4 November 2023, which candidate, excluding Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, will next have 10.0% or more of 2024 Republican presidential nomination support, according to RealClearPolitics?
As of early August 2023, former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis were well-ahead of other Republican presidential challengers in the polls (Politico, NBC News, CBS News). The question will be suspended on 3 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by RealClearPolitics' RCP Poll Average for the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination (RealClearPolitics, set to "3M"). Chart data will be accessed for resolution as soon as data for 3 November 2024 are first reported, if necessary. In the event of a tie, the candidate who most recently had a lower level of support will be considered to have been the next to have 10.0% or more.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-08-04; closed: 2023-11-04
Options: Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Someone else, No other candidate will have 10.0% or more before 4 November 2023
Answer: No other candidate will have 10.0% or more before 4 November 2023