jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: What will be Russia's annual rate of inflation in September 2022?
As in many other countries, inflation has been on the rise in Russia in 2021 (Moscow Times, Bloomberg). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2022 and the outcome determined using the latest data for September 2021 when monthly IMF data for September 2022 are first available, expected by November 2022 (IMF). On the page, change "Country" on the upper left of the page to "Russian Federation," then see "Consumer Price Index, All items." For August 2021 (2021M08), the annual rate of inflation was 6.69617%, calculated by dividing the index figure for August 2021 (2021M08) by the index figure for August 2020 (2020M08) and subtracting 1.
Tags: Finance, Society, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-12-10; closed: 2022-10-01
Options: Lower than 3.0%, Between 3.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, Higher than 5.0% but lower than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 9.0%, inclusive, Higher than 9.0%
Answer: Higher than 9.0%
Question: What will be the oil and gas rig count for the Permian Basin in the first week of October 2022, according to Baker Hughes?
Record-high oil and gasoline prices have put a renewed focus on oil and gas production in the US, particularly in the Permian Basin (Politico, Dallas Fed - Permian Basin). The Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count "is a weekly census of the number of drilling rigs actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas in the United States and Canada" (Baker Hughes - Rig Count FAQs). The outcome will be determined using data for the "Permian" first released in October 2022 (Baker Hughes - Rig Count). To download the data, click "North American Rotary Rig Count (Jan 2000 - Current)" to download the spreadsheet. Navigate to the sheet named "US Count by Basin," find the "Permian" columns, and sum the figures under "Oil" and "Gas." The first October data are expected on 7 October 2022. Figures marked "Misc" are immaterial.
Tags: Business, Technology, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-04-01; closed: 2022-10-07
Options: Fewer than 275, Between 275 and 325, Between 326 and 375, Between 376 and 425, Between 426 and 475, More than 475
Answer: Between 326 and 375
Question: What will be the average temperature at Dubai International Airport between 1 May 2022 and 30 September 2022?
The outcome will be determined using data from Meteostat (Meteostat). On the page, set the date range for "2021-05-01 - 2021-09-30" in the field above the "Avg. Pressure" field and click the "Export" button. The average of the daily averages ("tavg" in the file) will be used for resolution. Between 1 May 2020 and 30 September 2020, the average temperature was 35.48497 degrees Celsius (Meteostat - DBX 2020). For the same period in 2019, the average temperature was and 35.63268 degrees Celsius (Meteostat - DBX 2021). This question will be resolved with data available on 7 October 2022.
Tags: Environment
Question opened: 2021-09-24; closed: 2022-10-01
Options: Less than 34.5 degrees Celsius, Between 34.5 and 35.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive, More than 35.5 and but less than 36.5 degrees Celsius, Between 36.5 and 37.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive, More than 37.5 degrees Celsius
Answer: Between 34.5 and 35.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive
Question: What will be total regular season attendance at Major League Baseball games in 2022?
While Opening Day for baseball was postponed due to contract issues between team owners and the player's union, MLB has a full 162-game season scheduled for 2022 (CBS Sports, MLB). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Baseball Reference (Baseball Reference, see "Attendance" column).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2022-04-15; closed: 2022-10-05
Options: Fewer than 40 million, Between 40 million and 45 million, inclusive, More than 45 million but fewer than 50 million, Between 50 million and 55 million, inclusive, More than 55 million but fewer than 60 million, Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive, More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million, Between 70 million and 75 million, inclusive, More than 75 million
Answer: Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive
Question: As of 30 September 2022, will the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) rank higher than all other German parties in polling of national parliament voting intention, according to Politico?
The SPD-led German government faces a number of challenges in 2022, including lifting COVID restrictions, the war in Ukraine, and various domestic matters (Economist, Deutsche Welle, The Local). The outcome will be determined using data for 30 September 2022 as provided in Politico's "Poll of Polls" page for Germany no earlier than 5 October 2022 (Politico Poll of Polls - Germany, select "1 Year" and "Kalman Smooth").
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-03-25; closed: 2022-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What percentage of valid votes will the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win in the first round of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election?
Former President Lula is challenging incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 Brazilian presidential election (BBC, US News & World Report). The first round of the election is scheduled to take place 2 October 2022 (Rio Times).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-09-12; closed: 2022-10-02
Options: Less than 41.0%, Between 41.0% and 44.0%, inclusive, More than 44.0% but less than 47.0%, Between 47.0% and 50.0%, inclusive, More than 50.0%
Answer: Between 47.0% and 50.0%, inclusive
Question: Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 1 October 2022?
In 2021, the military (aka "Defence Services") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution, later extending their intended grip on power as various opposition groups fight to dislodge it (Economist, Radio Free Asia, Myanmar Times) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services "shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary" (Myanmar Constitution). The question would close "Yes" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-01-07; closed: 2022-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Amazon.com begin to accept any cryptocurrency for purchases on the US site before 1 October 2022?
As businesses and financial institutions explore ways to integrate cryptocurrencies (cryptos) into their operations, there are conflicting reports about whether Amazon.com is preparing to accept them for its transactions (CNBC, City A.M., Coindesk). The acceptance of stablecoins would count, but permitting crypto transactions solely for the exchange of currency, crypto, and other digital assets (e.g., NFTs) would not count.
Tags: Business, Technology, Society
Question opened: 2021-07-30; closed: 2022-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 1 October 2022?
Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post (The Verge, The Conversation, Cornell). There are multiple proposals under debate for its modification (Ars Technica, Brookings Institution).
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-10-15; closed: 2022-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 October 2022, will Facebook announce that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO?
Mark Zuckerberg, as Facebook's sole Chairman and CEO, has been under pressure as the company's business practices face ever greater scrutiny (CBS News, Endgadget, Quartz). An announced leave of absence or addition of either a co-chairman or co-CEO would count.
Tags: Business, Leader Entry/Exit
Question opened: 2021-10-07; closed: 2022-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 2.3 million or more travelers per day for three consecutive days?
The aviation industry is working to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic (Economist). The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (TSA). The question will resolve when throughput data for 2021 or 2022 next show three consecutive days of 2.3 million or more travelers, which last occurred in December 2019 (Sorted TSA Data Download, see both sheets).
Tags: Business, Society, Health, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2021-11-12; closed: 2022-09-30
Options: Before 1 January 2022, Between 1 January 2022 and 31 March 2022, Between 1 April 2022 and 30 June 2022, Between 1 July 2022 and 30 September 2022, Not before 1 October 2022
Answer: Not before 1 October 2022
Question: Before 1 January 2023, will Hong Kong cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine in Hong Kong?
In early August 2022, Hong Kong reduced the required time for travelers to quarantine, but compulsory quarantining remains in effect as part of its COVID protocols (Coronavirus.gov.hk, NPR, DestinAsian). For the purposes of this question, "outside of China" means anywhere other than the Chinese mainland, Macao, or Taiwan. The general removal of the requirements with exceptions would count so long as travel from at least six G7 nations is permitted without quarantine (Canada G7). An announcement that Hong Kong will cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine at some future date after 31 December 2022 would not count.
Tags: Business, Society, Health, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-09-16; closed: 2022-09-25
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: At close of business on 21 September 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 July 2022?
The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its September meeting is scheduled for 20-21 September 2022.
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-05-06; closed: 2022-09-21
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Higher
Question: What will be the closing value of the ICE US Dollar Index on 16 September 2022?
The US Dollar Index, a measure of the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, hit two-decade highs in May 2022 (NASDAQ, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M"). On 3 June 2022, the closing value was 102.17.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2022-06-10; closed: 2022-09-16
Options: Less than 95.00, Between 95.00 and 100.00, inclusive, More than 100.00 but less than 105.00, Between 105.00 and 110.00, inclusive, More than 110.00 but less than 115.00, 115.00 or more
Answer: Between 105.00 and 110.00, inclusive
Question: Between 1 April 2022 and 30 September 2022, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Armenia and Azerbaijan result in 100 or more fatalities?
Armenia and Azerbaijan most recently battled over the Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2020, with periodic skirmishes since despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Eurasianet, Deutsche Welle). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, the forces of Artsakh, the breakaway Armenian-majority republic in Nagorno-Karabakh, are considered Armenian forces.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-04-01; closed: 2022-09-14
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US core Consumer Price Index for August 2022?
Core inflation is the change in the prices of goods and services with food and energy excluded (Economist, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2022 and the outcome determined using unadjusted data as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, expected in September 2022 (BLS, select "All items less food and energy). For August 2021, the 12-month percentage change was 4.0% (BLS CPI Report - August 2021, see Table A under "Unadjusted 12-mos. ended Aug. 2021").
Tags: Finance, Society, Economic Indicators, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-02-11; closed: 2022-09-01
Options: Less than 2.5%, Between 2.5% and 4.0%, inclusive, More than 4.0% but less than 5.5%, Between 5.5% and 7.0%, inclusive, More than 7.0%
Answer: Between 5.5% and 7.0%, inclusive
Question: Between 11 March 2022 and 9 September 2022, will Russia publicly announce that it has moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine?
As fighting continues in Ukraine, there are concerns that Russia may deploy nuclear weapons westward in the region (Defense News, The Hill, Atlantic Council).
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-03-11; closed: 2022-09-10
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What percentage of the 2022 Chilean referendum vote will be to approve the new constitution?
In the wake of widespread protests in 2019, Chile began a process to draft and approve a new constitution to replace the current, Pinochet-era constitution (US News & World Report, Buenos Aires Times, Euronews). The referendum is currently scheduled for 4 September 2022 (France 24). If the Chilean government reschedules the referendum to a date before 1 January 2023, the suspend date will be changed to accommodate the new date. If the Chilean government postpones the referendum to a date after 31 December 2022, the question would close "Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022" upon the announcement of that postponement.
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-04-29; closed: 2022-09-04
Options: Less than 40.0%, Between 40.0% and 50.0%, inclusive, More than 50.0% but less than 60%, 60.0% or more, Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022
Answer: Less than 40.0%
Question: Before 1 January 2023, will the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom elect a new leader?
Pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the wake of various scandals (Sky News, The National). The current rules for electing the leader of the Conservative Party were introduced in 1998 (Parliament.uk, Conservative Party Constitution, see Schedule 2).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-02-04; closed: 2022-09-02
Options: Yes, Michael Gove, Yes, Jeremy Hunt, Yes, Sajid Javid, Yes, Priti Patel, Yes, Dominic Raab, Yes, Rishi Sunak, Yes, Liz Truss, Yes, Tom Tugendhat, Yes, Nadhim Zahawi, Yes, someone else, No
Answer: Yes, Liz Truss
Question: What will be the closing price per share of the ARK Innovation ETF on 2 September 2022?
After high gains during the height of the pandemic, the ARK Innovation ETF (Symbol: ARKK) has lost roughly 60% of its value from the beginning of June 2021 to the end of May 2022 (NPR, CNBC, US News & World Report, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").
Tags: Business, Technology, Foreign Policy
Question opened: 2022-06-03; closed: 2022-09-02
Options: Less than $25.00, Between $25.00 and $40.00, inclusive, More than $40.00 but less than $55.00, Between $55.00 and $70.00, inclusive, More than $70.00 but less than $85.00, $85.00 or more
Answer: More than $40.00 but less than $55.00
Question: What percentage of South Africa's population will be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 1 September 2022?
The question will be suspended on 31 August 2022 and the outcome determined using the latest data as reported by Our World in Data for the "People fully vaccinated" metric, relative to population, as displayed here at approximately 5:00PM ET on 2 September 2022: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=ZAF. For example, South Africa's share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 1 December 2021 was 24.25%. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-12-03; closed: 2022-09-01
Options: Less than 35.00%, Between 35.00% and 50.00%, inclusive, More than 50.00% but less than 65.00%, Between 65.00% and 80.00%, inclusive, More than 80.00%
Answer: Less than 35.00%
Question: Between 4 March 2022 and 4 September 2022, will a NATO member state accuse the Russian government of conducting a lethal cyberattack against the same NATO member state resulting in at least five fatalities?
As the Russia-Ukraine conflict develops, concerns have been raised regarding potential Russian cyberattacks (Fortune, Deutsche Welle, Just Security, National Interest). The attribution statement, the fatality, and at least part of the attack must all occur during the question's open period, but the end date of the question will be determined by the date of the fatality.
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-03-04; closed: 2022-09-05
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 September 2022?
The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (Deutsche Welle, France 24, Newsweek). For the purposes of this question, "territorial waters" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan.
Tags: Foreign Policy, US Politics, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-10-22; closed: 2022-09-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: As of 31 August 2022, how many confirmed cases of monkeypox will be reported in countries where the disease is not endemic, according to Global Health?
An outbreak of the monkeypox disease around the world has raised concerns about a potential epidemic (CBS News, Politico, CNBC). For the purposes of this question, countries where monkeypox is endemic are Benin, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Nigeria, the Republic of the Congo, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan (WHO). The question will be suspended on 30 August 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Global Health for confirmed cases through and including 31 August 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 August 2022 (Global Health - Monkeypox Tracker, Global Health - Monkeypox Google Sheet). In the event of inconsistencies between the tracker link and the Google Sheet, the data on the map link would control.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2022-05-27; closed: 2022-08-31
Options: Fewer than 1,000, Between 1,000 and 5,000, inclusive, More than 5,000 but fewer than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive, More than 100,000 but fewer than 250,000, 250,000 or more
Answer: Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive
Question: Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?
Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan continue over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people (Al-Monitor, All Africa). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council (Egypt Today, Reuters, UN).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-09-17; closed: 2022-09-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 September 2022?
CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (FEMA). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State (State.gov). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count.
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-09-17; closed: 2022-09-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 August 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?
The outcome will be determined using the "Close" value dated 31 August 2022 as reported by CoinMarketCap under "Historical Data for SHIBA INU" the morning of 1 September 2022 (CoinMarketCap - Shiba Inu). The market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 October 2021 was $36,919,669,979.
Tags: Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2021-11-12; closed: 2022-08-31
Options: Less than $15 billion, Between $15 billion and $25 billion, inclusive, More than $25 billion but less than $35 billion, Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive, More than $45 billion but less than $55 billion, $55 billion or more
Answer: Less than $15 billion
Question: What percent of Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) participating in the Medicare Shared Savings Program will earn shared savings in 2021?
The Medicare Shared Savings Program rewards health organizations, known as Accountable Care Organizations, that lower expected healthcare spending for a defined patient population; rewards are defined as "shared savings" (CMS.gov - Shared Savings Program, CMS.gov - ACO Performance Data, Healthcare Finance, Rev Cycle Intelligence, Health Affairs). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data for 2021 as first released by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), expected in August 2022. For 2020, 67% of Accountable Care Organizations participating in the Medicare Shared Savings Program earned shared savings (CMS.gov - Performance Year Financial and Quality Results).
Tags: Business, Society, Health, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-11-05; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Less than 40%, Between 40% and 50%, inclusive, More than 50% but less than 60%, Between 60% and 70%, inclusive, More than 70% but less than 80%, 80% or more
Answer: More than 50% but less than 60%