jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Philippines from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2019-07-01; closed: 2019-09-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Who will the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee select as a running mate?
In the March Democratic debate, candidate Joe Biden "committed" to picking a woman running mate, while Bernie Sanders said that he would "in all likelihood" do the same (CNN). The outcome will be determined based on the person formally nominated by the Democratic Party as its vice presidential candidate.
Tags: Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-04-03; closed: 2020-08-17
Options: Stacey Abrams, Tammy Duckworth, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, Gretchen Whitmer, Another woman, Someone else not a woman
Answer: Kamala Harris
Question: Who will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for U.S. president?
The 2020 Democratic National Convention is scheduled for 13-16 July 2020 (Ballotpedia, 270 To Win).
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-21; closed: 2020-08-18
Options: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone Else
Answer: Joe Biden
Question: Will the Democratic Party nominate their presidential candidate on the first ballot of the presidential roll call at the 2020 Democratic National Convention?
Talk of a “brokered” Democratic convention, where multiple ballots at the convention are necessary to select the presidential nominee, has been rising after rule changes and close results in Iowa and New Hampshire (CNN, Five Thirty Eight). The 2020 Democratic National Convention is scheduled to be held 13-16 July 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (Demconvention.com, Democrats.org).
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-21; closed: 2020-08-18
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will Félix Tshisekedi cease to be president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo before 15 August 2020?
Félix Tshisekedi was inaugurated in January 2020 amid claims of election rigging and a secret power-sharing deal with outgoing President Kabila (Economist, The Africa Report, Washington Post).
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-01-17; closed: 2020-08-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 13 August 2020, according to Bloomberg?
Amid the COVID-19 outbreak spreading around the world and fears of a price war between Russia and OPEC members, oil prices saw their largest single day percentage drop since 1991 (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Tags: Business, Health, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-03-10; closed: 2020-08-13
Options: Less than $25.00, Between $25.00 and $35.00, inclusive, More than $35.00 but less than $45.00, Between $45.00 and $55.00, inclusive, More than $55.00
Answer: More than $35.00 but less than $45.00
Question: Will the Swedish Scholastic Aptitude Test (SweSAT) scheduled for 18 October 2020 be canceled or postponed?
Question opened: 2020-05-29; closed: 2020-08-07
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: When will available Adult Intensive Care Unit (ICU) bed capacity in Arizona fall below 5.0%?
Arizona has seen a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations since the state stay-at-home order expired 15 May 2020 (12News, AZ Big Media). The outcome will be determined using data provided on the Arizona Department of Health Services' Data Dashboard (COVID-19 Data Dashboard). Click the "Hospital Bed Usage & Availability" icon to bring up the relevant chart, making sure that the "ICU Bed Usage & Availability" tab is selected. The data for each date are broken into two segments ("Available" and "In Use"), which will be displayed by hovering your cursor over the relevant segment. For 1 June 2020, there were 1,253 beds in use and 419 beds available, which put available bed capacity at 25.1%. Percentages shown of the site will not be used for resolution.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-06-12; closed: 2020-08-07
Options: Before 26 June 2020, Between 26 June 2020 and 9 July 2020, Between 10 July 2020 and 23 July 2020, Between 24 July 2020 and 6 August 2020, Not before 7 August 2020
Answer: Not before 7 August 2020
Question: What will be Rocket Companies' end-of-day market capitalization on the day of its initial public offering (IPO)?
On 11 June 2020, CNBC reported that mortgage lender Quicken Loans had confidentially filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission for an eventual IPO (CNBC, The Street). The IPO for the company, being rebranded as Rocket Companies, is expected in early August (Barron's). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day Market Capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.
Tags: Business, Finance
Question opened: 2020-07-31; closed: 2020-08-06
Options: Less than $35 billion, Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive, More than $45 billion but less than $55 billion, $55 billion or more, Quicken Loans will not have an IPO before 31 October 2020
Answer: Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive
Question: Will President Trump's approval rating be lower on 5 August 2020 than it was on 1 July 2020, according to FiveThirtyEight?
The outcome will be determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How Popular Is Donald Trump" page (FiveThirtyEight). On 1 July 2020, Trump's approval rating was 40.5%.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-07-07; closed: 2020-08-05
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the closing stock price of Chevron on 5 August 2020?
The oil & gas firm’s next quarterly earnings release is expected in late July/early August. The outcome will be determined using the closing price on 5 August 2020 as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). On 7 July 2020 the closing price of Chevron stock was $86.31.
Tags: Business
Question opened: 2020-07-08; closed: 2020-08-05
Options: Less than $75.00, Between $75.00 and $83.00, inclusive, More than $83.00 but less than $91.00, Between $91.00 and $99.00, inclusive, More than $99.00
Answer: More than $83.00 but less than $91.00
Question: Will the closing price of Chevron stock be higher on 5 August 2020 than it was on 7 July 2020?
The oil & gas firm’s next quarterly earnings release is expected in late July/early August. The outcome will be determined using the closing price on 5 August 2020 as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). On 7 July 2020 the closing price of Chevron stock was $86.31.
Tags: Business
Question opened: 2020-07-08; closed: 2020-08-05
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the closing stock price of Facebook on 5 August 2020?
The social media giant’s next quarterly earnings release is scheduled for 29 July 2020 amid an advertiser boycott that began in June over hate speech monitoring on the site (Facebook, Politico). The outcome will be determined using the closing price on 5 August 2020 as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). On 7 July 2020 the closing price of Facebook stock was $240.86.
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2020-07-08; closed: 2020-08-05
Options: Less than $200.00, Between $200.00 and $230.00, inclusive, More than $230.00 but less than $260.00, Between $260.00 and $290.00, inclusive, More than $290.00
Answer: More than $230.00 but less than $260.00
Question: Will the closing price of Facebook stock be higher on 5 August 2020 than it was on 7 July 2020?
The social media giant’s next quarterly earnings release is scheduled for 29 July 2020 amid an advertiser boycott that began in June over hate speech monitoring on the site (Facebook, Politico). The outcome will be determined using the closing price on 5 August 2020 as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). On 7 July 2020 the closing price of Facebook stock was $240.86.
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2020-07-08; closed: 2020-08-05
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 5 August 2020, will Mark Esper cease to be the U.S. Secretary of Defense?
Defense Secretary Esper's future in the Trump Administration is in question after developments related to protests in the wake of the death of George Floyd (Economist, Defense News, Politico).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics
Question opened: 2020-06-05; closed: 2020-08-05
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the FA Cup be decided with a penalty shootout?
The FA Cup is "the most famous domestic cup competition in the world" (BBC, The FA). The soccer/football final is scheduled for 1 August 2020 in the UK between Arsenal F.C. and Chelsea F.C.
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2020-07-24; closed: 2020-08-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Which team will win the FA Cup?
The FA Cup, a soccer/football final scheduled for 1 August 2020 in the UK, is "the most famous domestic cup competition in the world" (BBC, The FA).
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2020-07-24; closed: 2020-08-01
Options: Arsenal F.C., Chelsea F.C.
Answer: Arsenal F.C.
Question: Will the federal emergency increase in unemployment compensation benefits be extended before 1 August 2020?
On 27 March 2020, President Trump signed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, which, among other things, provided for $600 per week in supplemental unemployment benefits (Dept. of Labor, Congress.gov (CARES Act)). The benefit is scheduled to end on 31 July 2020, and some are pushing for its extension (CNBC, Forbes, Bloomberg). If the increase in unemployment compensation benefits is extended by a formula other than a flat number, the outcome of this question will be determined based on the highest amount for which a single unemployed person would be eligible.
Tags: Health, Economic Policy, US Politics
Question opened: 2020-07-14; closed: 2020-08-01
Options: Yes, at $600 or more per week, Yes, at less than $600 per week, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasurys next invert?
When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia, CNBC, Market Watch). The outcome will be determined using Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate data provided by the U.S. Department of the Treasury by comparing the value in the "2 Yr" column with the value in the "10 Yr" column for each day (Treasury.gov).
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-02-28; closed: 2020-08-01
Options: Before 15 March 2020, Between 15 March 2020 and 30 April 2020, Between 1 May 2020 and 15 June 2020, Between 16 June 2020 and 31 July 2020, Not before 1 August 2020
Answer: Not before 1 August 2020
Question: Will the 2019-20 NBA season resume on 30 July 2020?
The National Basketball Association (NBA), which announced the suspension of the 2019-20 season on 11 March 2020 due to COVID-19, is planning to restart on 30 July 2020 (NBA, Wall Street Journal).
Tags: Business, Health, Sports
Question opened: 2020-07-03; closed: 2020-07-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many total cases of COVID-19 will be reported in Orange County, Florida, as of 30 July 2020?
As part of the National Basketball Association's (NBA's) plan to finish the current season, all games will be played at the Disney World campus in Orange County, Florida (Wall Street Journal). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by the Florida Department of Health as of 30 July 2020 at 5:00PM ET (Florida Department of Health). Zoom in and click the county on the map that reads "Orlando." In the pop-up window titled "CASE DATA FOR ORANGE," the data can be found on the first line, "Total Cases."
Tags: Health, Sports
Question opened: 2020-07-03; closed: 2020-07-30
Options: Fewer than 15,000, Between 15,000 and 20,000, inclusive, More than 20,000 but fewer than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive, More than 30,000
Answer: Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive
Question: At close of business on 29 July 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 10 June 2020?
The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 28-29 July 2020.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2020-03-20; closed: 2020-07-29
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: Before 28 July 2020, will Saudi Arabia announce the cancellation or suspension of the Hajj pilgrimage, scheduled for 28 July 2020 to 2 August 2020?
Question opened: 2020-05-18; closed: 2020-07-28
Options: Yes, before 1 June 2020, Yes, between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020, Yes, between 1 July 2020 and 27 July 2020, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2020?
The Chinese economy is expected to be impacted by the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus in the country (NBC News, BBC, Foreign Policy, FXStreet). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (National Bureau of Statistics). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2019, the index was 106.2, which equates to 6.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2020 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2020 are released, scheduled for July 2020.
Tags: Health, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-02-07; closed: 2020-07-01
Options: Less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 5.5%, inclusive, More than 5.5%
Answer: Less than 4.0%
Question: Before 18 July 2020, will President Trump announce that Nikki Haley will be his 2020 running mate?
In early March, Democratic Party insider and CNN contributor Paul Begala said that it was "a certainty" that Trump will "dump Mike Pence and put Nikki Haley on the ticket" on the last day of the Democratic National Convention (The Hill, CNN).
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-03-06; closed: 2020-07-17
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: For the month of June 2020, what will be the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone?
Christine Lagarde became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) in November 2019 at a time the eurozone faces various challenges, including how to balance a world of negative interest rates with an inflation target "below, but close to, 2% over the medium term" (Economist, ECB). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2020 and closed upon the release of the relevant June (2020M06) Eurostat data for "Euro area (19 countries)" (Eurostat). Estimates would not count.
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2019-12-27; closed: 2020-07-01
Options: 0.0% or less, Between 0.1% and 1.0%, inclusive, Between 1.0% and 2.0%, 2.0% or more
Answer: Between 0.1% and 1.0%, inclusive
Question: What will the UK Office of National Statistics report the UK unemployment rate to be for the period March-May 2020?
Amidst the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are fears of a spike in unemployment in the UK (City A.M., Guardian, Spectator.co.uk). The outcome will be determined using data from the Office of National Statistics for the Unemployment rate, aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted, for the period March-May 2020 (Office of National Statistics). For November 2019-January 2020, the rate was 3.9% (Office of National Statistics - March 2020 Bulletin). This question will suspend on 31 May 2020 and close when data are first released, typically in July (Office of National Statistics).
Tags: Health, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-03-24; closed: 2020-06-01
Options: Less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%, Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive, More than 7.0%
Answer: Less than 4.0%
Question: When will the first Major League Baseball game of the 2020 season be played?
On 12 March 2020, Major League Baseball (MLB) announced that it was suspending "Spring Training games and to delay the start of the 2020 regular season by at least two weeks due to the national emergency created by the coronavirus pandemic" (MLB, Sports Illustrated). Whether the first MLB game is played before spectators is immaterial.
Tags: Business, Health, Sports
Question opened: 2020-03-13; closed: 2020-07-16
Options: Before 16 April 2020, Between 16 April 2020 and 15 May 2020, Between 16 May 2020 and 15 June 2020, Between 16 June 2020 and 15 July 2020, Not before 16 July 2020
Answer: Not before 16 July 2020
Question: What will be the end-of-day closing value for the South Korean won (₩) against the U.S. dollar on 15 July 2020?
South Korea, the first country other than China to reach over 1,000 COVID-19 cases, faces uncertainty as it battles the outbreak (CNBC, CBS News). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-02-28; closed: 2020-07-15
Options: Less than ₩1,150.0000, Between ₩1,150.0000 and  ₩1,200.0000, inclusive, More than ₩1,200.0000 but less than ₩1,250.0000, Between ₩1,250.0000 and  ₩1,300.0000, inclusive, More than ₩1,300.0000
Answer: More than ₩1,200.0000 but less than ₩1,250.0000
Question: Who will be the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Alabama for the 2020 race?
In March, Alabama held the first round of its Republican primary for the race to fill a vacant seat this November (NBC News). However, the runoff between former Attorney General Jeff Sessions and former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville was postponed until July due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic (Politico).
Tags: Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-04-03; closed: 2020-07-14
Options: Jeff Sessions, Tommy Tuberville, Someone else
Answer: Tommy Tuberville
Question: What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2020?
Question opened: 2020-05-01; closed: 2020-07-01
Options: Less than 18,000 tb/d, Between 18,000 tb/d and 21,000 tb/d, inclusive, More than 21,000 tb/d but less than 24,000 tb/d, Between 24,000 tb/d and 27,000 tb/d, inclusive, More than 27,000 tb/d
Answer: More than 21,000 tb/d but less than 24,000 tb/d
Question: Will domestic sales of passenger vehicles in India be higher in April-June 2020 compared with April-June 2019?
A slowing economy in India is affecting many sectors, including car sales (Economist, India Today). The question will be resolved based on data reported by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, or SIAM (SIAM). For April-June 2019 SIAM reported that the sale of Passenger Vehicles declined by 18.42% compared to April-June 2018 (SIAM, New Delhi Television). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2020 and resolved when the relevant data are released, usually in early July.
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-01-24; closed: 2020-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 12 June 2020 and 31 August 2020, what will be the highest number of COVID-19 Hospitalizations in the state of Texas for a single day?
Question opened: 2020-06-12; closed: 2020-07-10
Options: Less than 2,500, Between 2,500 and 5,000, inclusive, More than 5,000 but less than 7,500, Between 7,500 and 10,000, inclusive, More than 10,000
Answer: More than 10,000
Question: Who will win the 2020 Dominican Republic presidential election?
The presidential election is scheduled for 17 May 2020, with a runoff scheduled for 28 June 2020 if needed (Economist, El Día [in Spanish], Constitution Project).
Tags: Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2019-12-13; closed: 2020-07-06
Options: Luis Abinader, Gonzalo Castillo, Leonel Fernández, Someone else
Answer: Luis Abinader
Question: Before 1 January 2021, will the Russian constitution be amended to allow Vladimir Putin to remain president after his current term?
Under Russia's current constitution, President Vladimir Putin is required to step down in 2024 (Guardian). A national vote on constitutional changes that, among other things, would allow him to continue serving as president was scheduled for 22 April 2020, but the vote was postponed due to COVID-19 (NPR, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal). The processes for amending the Russian constitution are found in Chapter 9 (Constitution.ru, Moscow Times).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-04-17; closed: 2020-07-03
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: In Chiafalo v. Washington, will the Supreme Court rule that the state of Washington's fining of presidential electors for failing to vote for the nominee of their party is unconstitutional?
Washington state law requires Electoral College voters to cast their ballots for the presidential candidates from their party who won the popular vote in the state, but in 2016 four electors cast their votes for others and were fined (Seattle Times). The electors sued, claiming that the fine violated various provisions of the federal constitution (Oyez). The state supreme court upheld the fine, and this Supreme Court appeal followed (Casetext, SCOTUSBlog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2019 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
Tags: Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-01-31; closed: 2020-07-06
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 July 2020, will federal legislation protecting financial institutions that serve legitimate marijuana businesses from federal criminal and civil enforcement become law?
Even as an increasing number of U.S. states legalize medical and recreational marijuana, current federal law leaves banks and other financial institutions vulnerable to prosecution if they work with marijuana businesses (NPR). In September 2019 the House of Representatives passed the Secure And Fair Enforcement Banking Act of 2019, which would protect financial institutions from criminal and civil enforcement actions related to serving legitimate marijuana businesses (Reuters, Congress.gov).
Tags: Business, Society, US Policy
Question opened: 2019-10-18; closed: 2020-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No