jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Will President Joe Biden cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Democratic nomination for US president before 3 February 2024?
President Biden announced in April 2023 that he was running for reelection, there's ongoing speculation that he may drop out of the race (CNN, Guardian). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Biden no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-07-21; closed: 2024-02-03
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Ukraine's Corruption Perceptions Index score rise in 2023 as compared to 2022, according to Transparency International?
As war continues in Ukraine, fights against corruption in the government continue (CBC, BBC, Guardian). The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) is a measure of a country's perceived levels of public sector corruption (Transparency International). The scale runs from zero to 100, with 100 being the least corrupt. The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using CPI data for Ukraine once published for 2023, expected in early 2024. In 2022, Ukraine had a score of 33, up by one point from 2021 (Transparency International - Ukraine).
Tags: Business, Society, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-09-22; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg publicly engage in physical combat in an officiated setting before 1 February 2024?
On 20 June 2023, Twitter owner Elon Musk apparently challenged Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg to a cage match (Twitter, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, Politico). The match/fight involving some form of physical combat must be viewable by the public (e.g., broadcast, physically present audience, pay-per-view) in real time with some form of official (e.g., referee, umpire) present and in putative control of the event to count. The physical combat must involve direct contact, and such contact made while wearing gloves, armor, or other gear/clothing would count. Physical combat with the use of hand-held implements (e.g., clubs, axes, swords, spears, morning stars, flails, lances, hammers) would count, though combat solely with the use of projectile weapons (e.g., bows, crossbows, firearms, slings) would not count. Whether the match/fight is staged or scripted is immaterial, and the involvement of an actual cage is not necessary to count.
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-07-21; closed: 2024-02-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will Apple announce the public release of a new generative artificial intelligence (AI) system in the US?
While Microsoft, Google, and others have released generative AI systems, Apple has yet to join them (CNBC, CNET, US News & World Report). For the purposes of this question, "generative AI" means a deep-learning model that can generate high-quality text, images, and/or other content based on the data on which they were trained (IBM). Examples of generative AI systems that would qualify include ChatGPT, Bard, LLaMa, DALL-E 2, and Claude (Tech Monitor, OpenAI). An announced release of a system created or administered by a partnership with another firm or organization would count. Individually personalized systems or features would not count (e.g., TechCrunch). Providing limited availability for specific individuals (e.g., journalists, academics) or firms (e.g., Apple for AppleCare) alone would not count, and whether use of the AI requires payment is immaterial (Yahoo).
Tags: Business, Technology, Society
Question opened: 2023-07-28; closed: 2024-02-01
Options: Before 1 October 2023, Between 1 October 2023 and 30 November 2023, Between 1 December 2023 and 31 January 2024, Not before 1 February 2024
Answer: Not before 1 February 2024
Question: At close of business on 31 January 2024, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 13 December 2023?
The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its January meeting is scheduled for 30-31 January 2024.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-09-22; closed: 2024-01-31
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: What will be the ending stocks of crude oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in November 2023?
With US oil stockpiles in the SPR down 42% since President Biden took office, Republicans and Democrats are fighting over what to do next (Politico, The Hill, Department of Energy). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) when first released for November 2023, expected in January 2024 (EIA). For November 2022, ending stocks totaled 388,419 thousand barrels.
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-03-10; closed: 2023-12-01
Options: Less than 330,000 thousand barrels, Between 330,000 thousand barrels and 370,000 thousand barrels, inclusive, More than 370,000 thousand barrels but less than 410,000 thousand barrels, Between 410,000 thousand barrels and 450,000 thousand barrels, inclusive, More than 450,000 thousand barrels
Answer: Between 330,000 thousand barrels and 370,000 thousand barrels, inclusive
Question: How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2023?
While inventories improved in 2022, rising interest rates are putting pressure on US auto sales (Cox Automotive, PR Newswire, NASDAQ). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined by adding all monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once December 2023 data are first available (FRED).
Tags: Business, Technology, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-12-23; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Fewer than 12.5 million, Between 12.5 million and 13.0 million, inclusive, More than 13.0 million but fewer than 13.5 million, Between 13.5 million and 14.0 million, inclusive, More than 14.0 million but fewer than 14.5 million, Between 14.5 million and 15.0 million, inclusive, More than 15.0 million but fewer than 15.5 million, Between 15.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive, More than 16.0 million
Answer: Between 15.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive
Question: Before 28 January 2024, will West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin register with the FEC to run for US president in 2024?
Manchin has repeatedly floated the prospect that he may run for president in 2024 (NBC News, The Hill, Politico, NY1). Persons running for federal office in the US must register with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) upon raising or spending more than $5,000 in contributions or expenditures (FEC - Registration, FEC - Candidates). The question would close early if Manchin publicly announces that he will not run for US president in 2024.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-07-14; closed: 2024-01-28
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from October 2023 through December 2023 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?
A new surge of people illegally crossing the US border with Mexico has drawn new attention on US border security (US News & World Report, The Hill). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CBP for the calendar months of October 2023 through December 2023 once data for December 2023 are first reported (CBP). Between calendar October 2022 and December 2022, CBP reported a total of 719,056 encounters in the US southwest as of the launch of this question. Please note that calendar October 2023 through December 2023 falls within the US federal government fiscal year of 2024.
Tags: Society, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-09-29; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Fewer than 200,000, Between 200,000 and 350,000, inclusive, More than 350,000 but fewer than 500,000, Between 500,000 and 650,000, inclusive, More than 650,000 but fewer than 800,000, Between 800,000 and 950,000, inclusive, More than 950,000
Answer: More than 650,000 but fewer than 800,000
Question: How will Donald Trump and Nikki Haley perform in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?
Donald Trump's dominant lead in the polls for the New Hampshire primary has faded as Nikki Haley rises in its primary polls (CNN, NBC News, FiveThirtyEight - NH Republican Primary Polls). The margin will be determined by taking the number of votes won by each pertinent candidate and dividing that by the total number of counted votes cast. The resulting percentage for a pertinent candidate will be subtracted from the resulting percentage for another pertinent candidate in order to determine the outcome. The New Hampshire Republican primary is scheduled for 23 January 2024 (WMUR).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2024-01-16; closed: 2024-01-23
Options: Nikki Haley will receive more votes than Donald Trump and win, Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 0.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, and win, Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of more than 5.0% but less than 10.0%, and win, Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 10.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, and win, Donald Trump will receive the more votes with a margin of more than 15.0% than Nikki Haley, and win, Another outcome
Answer: Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 10.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, and win
Question: What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2023?
Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy in 2023 (CBS News, CNBC, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in January 2024 (FRED, BEA - Release Schedule).
Tags: Business, Finance, Society, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-02-24; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Lower by more than 3.0%, Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive, Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%, Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive, Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%, Higher by 3.0% or more
Answer: Higher by 3.0% or more
Question: How many more total Supercharger stations will Tesla report globally for the fourth quarter of 2023 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022?
Tesla already has the largest network of EV chargers in the US, and both General Motors and Ford have announced that their EVs will be chargeable at Tesla stations starting in 2024 (Guardian, AP, Inside EVs). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: Tesla - Quarterly Results. Tesla's total number of Supercharger stations globally as of the fourth quarter of 2022 was 4,678 (Tesla - Q4 2022 Update, see page 7).
Tags: Business, Technology, Environment, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-06-16; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Fewer than 1,000, Between 1,000 and 1,300, inclusive, More than 1,300 but fewer than 1,600, Between 1,600 and 1,900, inclusive, More than 1,900 but fewer than 2,200, 2,200 or more
Answer: Between 1,000 and 1,300, inclusive
Question: How many total vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2023?
Tesla produced a record 343,830 vehicles in the third quarter of 2022, and production is expected to rise into 2023 (InsideEVs, Tesla Owners Online). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. Tesla's total deliveries of  vehicles during the first three quarters of 2022 was 908,573 (Tesla - Q3 2022 Update, see page 7).
Tags: Business, Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2022-10-21; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Fewer than 1.1 million, Between 1.1 million and 1.4 million, inclusive, More than 1.4 million but fewer than 1.7 million, Between 1.7 million and 2.0 million, inclusive, More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.3 million, Between 2.3 million and 2.6 million, inclusive, More than 2.6 million
Answer: Between 1.7 million and 2.0 million, inclusive
Question: How many employed persons in the US will be members of unions in 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)?
The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the BLS for 2023, expected in early 2024 (BLS). To access the data, select only the box under "Total" under "Members of unions(1)" for the row "Total, 16 years and over," then click the "Retrieve data" button under the  table. In 2022, there were 14,285 thousand employed persons were members of unions, or 14.285 million.
Tags: Business, Society
Question opened: 2023-04-21; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Fewer than 13.8 million, Between 13.8 million and 14.0 million, inclusive, More than 14.0 million but fewer than 14.2 million, Between 14.2 million and 14.4 million, inclusive, More than 14.4 million but fewer than 14.6 million, 14.6 million or more
Answer: More than 14.4 million but fewer than 14.6 million
Question: In how many US jurisdictions will Donald Trump have any criminal charges outstanding as of the day before the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?
As of 16 June 2023, former President Donald Trump is facing criminal charges in two jurisdictions: the state of New York and federal criminal charges in the Southern District of Florida as an investigation continues in Georgia (Manhattan District Attorney, Southern District of Florida, NBC News, Politico). For the purposes of this question, "US jurisdiction" means either the US federal government, including the District of Columbia, or the government of any of the 50 states. The outcome will be determined based on the status of criminal charges as of 8:00PM PT the day before the New Hampshire Republican primary, currently expected in early 2024 (Ballotpedia). The close date for this question will be changed once the official primary date is set. If Trump is deceased during the question's open period, the question will close "0," and criminal charges would be considered to have ceased to be outstanding upon the dismissal of or entry of a verdict on those charges and irrespective of any appeals.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-06-16; closed: 2024-01-23
Options: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more
Answer: 3
Question: What will be the closing value of the US dollar/Russian ruble exchange rate on 19 January 2024?
While the ruble showed resilience in the early months of Russia's war in Ukraine, the currency has fallen considerably in mid-2023 (CNN, Newsweek, Yahoo Finance). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").
Tags: Business, Finance, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-07-14; closed: 2024-01-19
Options: Lower than 70.00, Between 70.00 and 85.00, inclusive, Higher than 85.00 but lower than 100.00, Between 100.00 and 115.00, inclusive, More than 115.00 but lower than 130.00, 130.00 or more
Answer: Higher than 85.00 but lower than 100.00
Question: What percentage of the labour force in British Columbia (BC) will be comprised of landed immigrants in 2023?
The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada, parameters set in link). To adjust the date range, see the year drop-down menus under "Reference period," and click "Apply." Subsequent revisions to data would be immaterial. The percentage of workers in the labour force who are landed immigrants will be determined by dividing the number of "Landed Immigrants" by the "Total Population" figure. In 2021, landed immigrants comprised 32.04% (=910.4/2841.2) of the BC labour force.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-11-25; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Less than 32.0%, Between 32.0% and 33.0%, inclusive, More than 33.0% but less than 34.0%, Between 34.0% and 35.0%, inclusive, More than 35.0%
Answer: Between 32.0% and 33.0%, inclusive
Question: What will be the total number of housing starts in the US in 2023?
The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (US Census Bureau). From the Census Bureau page, download the XLS file for "Housing Units Started." In the file, find the "StartsUA" sheet. The total number of starts in 2021 was 1,601.1 thousand, or 1,601,100.
Tags: Business, Finance, Society, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-09-28; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Fewer than 1.30 million, Between 1.30 million and 1.45 million, inclusive, More than 1.45 million but fewer than 1.60 million, Between 1.60 million and 1.75 million, inclusive, More than 1.75 million
Answer: Between 1.30 million and 1.45 million, inclusive
Question: What will be the monthly percentage change in US retail sales for December 2023?
Retail sales is a measure of consumer demand for finished goods in an economy (Investopedia, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using US Census Bureau Retail Trade and Food Services data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in January 2024 (FRED). In December 2022, the monthly percentage change in US retail sales was -0.7%.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-08-18; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Down by more than 0.8%, Down by up to 0.8%, but less than 0.0%, Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 0.8%, Up by at least 0.8%, but less than 1.6%, Up by at least 1.6%, but less than 2.4%, Up by 2.4% or more
Answer: Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 0.8%
Question: What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2023?
Various forecasts for China's economic growth in 2023 have been cut as the country deals with various economic issues (CNBC, CNN). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in January 2024 (Trading Economics).
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-08-04; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Higher by less than 3.0% or lower, Higher by at least 3.0%, but less than 4.0%, Higher by at least 4.0%, but less than 5.0%, Higher by at least 5.0%, but less than 6.0%, Higher by at least 6.0%, but less than 7.0%, Higher by 7.0% or more
Answer: Higher by at least 5.0%, but less than 6.0%
Question: Will the "natural growth rate" of the population of China in 2023 be negative?
Deaths outnumbered births in China for the first time on record in 2022, the consequence of a long-expected demographic shift in the country that the government is working to address (BBC, CNBC, National Statistics Bureau of China). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using natural growth rate (i.e., the birth rate minus the death rate over a given period) data as published by the Chinese government for 2023, expected in early 2024. Because your browser may not recognize the security certificate used by China's National Bureau of Statistics website, we have included the birth rate, death rate, and natural growth rate for the past ten years:
Tags: Society, Health, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-11-17; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the estimated 12-month forward earnings of the S&P 500 on 29 December 2023? - 2023
Question opened: 2023-04-12; closed: 2023-12-29
Options: Less than 150, More than or equal to 150 but less than 175, More than or equal to 175 but less than 200, More than or equal to 200 but less than 215, More than or equal to 215 but less than 225, More than or equal to 225 but less than 240, More than or equal to 240 but less than 265, More than or equal to 265 but less than 290, More than or equal to 290 but less than 315, More than or equal to 315
Answer: More than or equal to 215 but less than 225
Question: When will US legislation appropriating new funding for government and/or military assistance to Ukraine become law?
While President Biden and many members of Congress had pushed for more Ukraine funding to be included in the continuing resolution negotiated to prevent a government shutdown, none was included (CNBC, Colorado Public Radio). Legislation that only extends preexisting funding for Ukraine (e.g., a continuing resolution without new funding) would not count (Government Accountability Office, Congressional Research Service).
Tags: Foreign Policy, US Politics, Security and Conflict, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-10-20; closed: 2024-01-16
Options: Before 19 November 2023, Between 19 November 2023 and 17 December 2023, Between 18 December 2023 and 15 January 2024, Not before 16 January 2024
Answer: Not before 16 January 2024
Question: Will Sen. Robert Menendez and/or Rep. George Santos cease to hold their respective seats in the US Congress before 15 January 2024?
Democratic Senator Menendez is facing a growing list of federal charges related to bribery and corruption, while Republican Representative George Santos is dealing with a slew of charges related to fraud (Department of Justice - Menendez Charged, AP, Department of Justice - Santos Charged, NBC News).
Tags: Society, US Politics
Question opened: 2023-10-20; closed: 2024-01-15
Options: Yes, only Sen. Robert Menendez, Yes, only Rep. George Santos, Yes, both Sen. Robert Menendez and Rep. George Santos, No
Answer: Yes, only Rep. George Santos
Question: Between 22 September 2023 and 14 January 2024, will Donald Trump be found in contempt of court by a judge presiding over any US criminal proceedings for which he is a defendant?
As former President Trump faces criminal charges in various jurisdictions, he is under various orders from courts to refrain from making certain comments against prosecutors and others (Politico - Trump Criminal Investigations Cases Tracker, US News & World Report, Politico, NBC News, Cornell - Gag Order). A finding of either civil contempt or criminal contempt in pertinent criminal proceedings would count, and the proceedings may be in either state or federal court (Cornell - Contempt of Court). A contempt finding in civil cases would not count (e.g., US News & World Report).
Tags: Society, Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-09-22; closed: 2024-01-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Donald Trump cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Republican nomination for US president before 15 January 2024?
Former President Trump announced in November 2022 that he was running for president amid a slew of legal troubles (US News & World Report, BBC). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Trump no longer seeks the Republican Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-07-28; closed: 2024-01-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No