jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?
Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country (Economist).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-11-27; closed: 2021-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?
Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 (Economist, Fox News, Merck). “Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count (FDA, FDA).
Tags: Business, Technology, Health, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-03-12; closed: 2021-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?
North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government (Economist, Financial Times, OBC Transeuropa, Balkan Insight). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., OBC Transeuropa). The actual release of data is immaterial.
Tags: Society, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-01-08; closed: 2021-09-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: At close of business on 22 September 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 July 2021?
The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 21-22 September 2021.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2021-04-30; closed: 2021-09-22
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?
Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 (Economist, Moscow Times). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma (RT, Forbes). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-01-15; closed: 2021-09-19
Options: Fewer than 226 seats, Between 226 seats and 299 seats, 300 seats or more, Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021
Answer: 300 seats or more
Question: What will happen next to the United Arab Emirate's rolling 7-day average of confirmed cases of COVID-19?
With one of the highest COVID-19 vaccination rates in the world, the UAE has continued to reopen to the rest of the world (Business Insider, Khaleej Times). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data (Our World in Data - UAE, see "Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases" chart).
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-08-31; closed: 2021-09-21
Options: The 7-day average will reach 1,500 or higher, The 7-day average will reach 500 or lower, Neither will occur before 12 November 2021
Answer: The 7-day average will reach 500 or lower
Question: Will the Liberal Party win a majority of seats in the 2021 Canadian parliamentary elections?
Canadian Governor General Mary Simon dissolved the Canadian parliament at PM Justin Trudeau's request on Sunday 15 August 2021 and set election day for 20 September 2021 (Edmonton Journal, BBC).
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-08-20; closed: 2021-09-20
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will 600 million people in India have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?
As the worst of the spring spike in COVID-19 cases in India has subsided, officials are racing to vaccinate Indians before a third wave strikes (Guardian, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government (India Ministry of Health and Family Welfare). Click "Vaccination State Data," which opens a daily PDF report, "Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination." Navigate to the "India" row and the column titled "1st Dose." Data is reported in Indian notation; six hundred million (600,000,000) in international notation is equivalent to 60 crore (60,00,00,000).
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-07-16; closed: 2021-09-20
Options: Before 1 September 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 24 September 2021, Between 25 September 2021 and 18 October 2021, Between 19 October 2021 and 11 November 2021, Not before 12 November 2021
Answer: Between 1 September 2021 and 24 September 2021
Question: Before 1 January 2022, will President Biden invite Prime Minister Boris Johnson to visit the White House?
Biden has already met Johnson once since becoming president, but has so far only invited Queen Elizabeth II from the UK to the White House (Sky News, Politico).
Tags: Foreign Policy, US Politics
Question opened: 2021-08-27; closed: 2021-09-16
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?
Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down (Britannica). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU (Economist, BBC, Independent).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-09-18; closed: 2021-09-18
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?
The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 (Economist, Dutch News, BBC, houseofrepresentatives.nl). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed (Reuters). A caretaker government would not count.
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-01-15; closed: 2021-09-18
Options: Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021, Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021, Not before 18 September 2021
Answer: Not before 18 September 2021
Question: What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?
With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 (CNBC, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC).
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-02-19; closed: 2021-09-16
Options: Less than 1.000, Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive, More than 1.500 but less than 2.000, Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive, More than 2.500
Answer: Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive
Question: Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?
There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state (KCRA, NBC News). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot (Calmatters.org). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2021-02-19; closed: 2021-09-15
Options: Yes, and Newsom will be recalled, Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled, No
Answer: Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled
Question: Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?
As civil unrest in Myanmar grows in the wake of the February coup, there are fears as to what lengths the military may go to suppress protests (BBC, Deutsche Welle). The use of riot control agents (e.g., "tear gas"), as defined in Article II, section 7 of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), would only count for the purposes of this question if the pertinent accusation claims its use was in violation of international law (CWC.gov, Arms Control Association, Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons). The identification of the exact chemical used against protesters would not be necessary for resolution. Examples include the use of white phosphorous in Myanmar in 2013 and Syria's use of chlorine in its civil war (BBC, Arms Control Association).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-03-26; closed: 2021-09-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the 2020 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?
Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (Clean Technica, Financial Times). This question will be suspended on 31 December 2020 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2020, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a 2015 Nature Climate Change study. The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh" (The Mack Institute).
Tags: Business, Technology, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-04-02; closed: 2020-12-31
Options: Less than $115 per kWh, Between $115 and $130 per kWh, inclusive, More than $130 but less than $145 per kWh, Between $145 and $160 per kWh, inclusive, More than $160 per kWh
Answer: More than $130 but less than $145 per kWh
Question: Will NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers sign a player contract with an NFL team other than the Green Bay Packers before 9 September 2021?
Aaron Rodgers' future with the Green Bay Packers has become unclear in the offseason (ESPN, CBS Sports, Fox News).
Tags: Business, Sports
Question opened: 2021-05-28; closed: 2021-09-09
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the US Congress agree to a new budget resolution?
Senate Democrats announced a new proposed budget deal designed to sidestep a filibuster (CNBC, Politico,  Senate Glossary, House Budget Committee). The last budget resolution was agreed to by the House and Senate on 5 February 2021 (Congress.gov - S.Con.Res.5, NPR). Legislation asserting the force and effect of a budget resolution would not count.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-07-23; closed: 2021-08-24
Options: Before 9 August 2021, Between 9 August 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021
Answer: Between 9 August 2021 and 30 September 2021
Question: What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?
The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult (Economist, Politico, Newsweek). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 (BLS - Release Schedule).
Tags: Society, Health, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-02-19; closed: 2021-09-01
Options: Less than 5.4%, Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive, More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%, Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive, More than 7.1%
Answer: Less than 5.4%
Question: What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?
The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover (Economist, LA Times). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the "Cumulative Gross" column for June, July, and August 2021 (Box Office Mojo). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.
Tags: Business, Health, Entertainment
Question opened: 2021-01-29; closed: 2021-09-01
Options: Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive, More than $500 million but less than $1 billion, Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive, More than $1.75 billion
Answer: Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive
Question: Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?
Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people (Al-Monitor, BBC, Foreign Policy). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council (Egypt Today, UN).
Tags: Environment, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2020-10-16; closed: 2021-09-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?
CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (FEMA). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2020-09-11; closed: 2021-09-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?
CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (FEMA). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State (State.gov). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2020-09-11; closed: 2021-09-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?
Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines (NY Times, Sinopharm, Sinovac, Guardian, BBC). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: AP, EMA, EMA - Approvals. For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: FDA - Vaccine Development, FDA - Emergency Preparedness. Emergency use approvals would count.
Tags: Technology, Health
Question opened: 2020-12-18; closed: 2021-09-01
Options: Yes, only by the FDA, Yes, only by the EMA, Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?
The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown (Economist, S&P Global). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the "Leveraged Loan Trends" section, click on the "Default Rate" tab to show the "Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2021-01-08; closed: 2021-09-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the US announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021?
The high cost of lumber is impacting housing prices in the US, and the approximately 9% punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber only adds pressure to the market (Mortgage News Daily, CNN). A "punitive tariff" is either an antidumping or countervailing tariff, also referred to as a duty (Reference for Business). The Trump administration cut the punitive tariffs down from approximately 20% in late 2020 (PR Newswire, NAHB Now). The date a reduction or elimination of the total punitive tariffs would take effect is immaterial. A temporary reduction or elimination would count.
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-05-14; closed: 2021-09-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections (Economist, Reuters). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-01-08; closed: 2021-09-01
Options: Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador, Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 September 2021, will Justice Stephen Breyer announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court?
Speculation abounds as to whether Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer will retire after the current term (CNN, The Hill). The date that his retirement would take effect is immaterial.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics
Question opened: 2021-05-14; closed: 2021-09-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?
A series of rape and sexual assault allegations has hit the Australian Parliament (ABC Australia, Guardian, BBC).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-04-02; closed: 2021-09-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the UK have vaccinated 80% or more of its 18 and over population with a full course of a COVID-19 vaccine?
The outcome will be determined using data from the UK government (Coronavirus.data.gov.uk). See "Vaccination uptake, by report date," and select "UK Total." If the UK government changes how it reports vaccination data (e.g., including the administration of single-dose vaccines), we will provide clarifying language as necessary (BBC). As of 2 June 2021, full course uptake in the UK was 50.7%.
Tags: Technology, Health
Question opened: 2021-06-04; closed: 2021-08-28
Options: Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 July 2021, Between 1 August and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021
Answer: Between 1 August and 31 August 2021
Question: How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?
The Arab League consists of 22 member states (BBC, CNN, Arab League). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow (France24, Economist, Whitehouse.gov). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count (Guardian).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-08-28; closed: 2021-08-28
Options: 2 or fewer, 3, 4, 5, 6 or more
Answer: 6 or more
Question: Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?
A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 (EIA 19 October 2020, EIA 30 June 2020). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" (EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.
Tags: Technology, Environment, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-11-13; closed: 2021-06-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 3 October 2021, will the US Supreme Court block any part of the CDC's 3 August 2021 eviction moratorium order?
On 3 August 2021, the CDC issued a new, revised 60-day eviction moratorium order to replace the order that expired at the end of July 2021 (NPR, CDC, The Hill). For the purposes of this question, "block" means an action by the Supreme Court that would prevent the order from having legal effect (e.g., denying a relevant appeal, a judgment declaring the moratorium illegal).
Tags: Business, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-08-13; closed: 2021-08-27
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?
As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard (LMTonline, Real Estate Weekly, Commercial Property Executive). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 (FRED).
Tags: Business, Finance
Question opened: 2020-10-02; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Less than 2.00%, Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive, More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%, Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive, More than 8.00%
Answer: Less than 2.00%
Question: Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 20 August 2021?
After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies (The Hill, WSJ). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour (Cornell, US Dept. of Labor). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Policy, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-04-02; closed: 2021-08-20
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the US fully evacuate or lose control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, before 1 December 2021?
As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (NY Times, Military Times, NPR). The safety of the US embassy is a concern (Politico, CNN). A lockdown alone would not count (NPR).
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-07-16; closed: 2021-08-16
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes