jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 13 August 2021, according to FiveThirtyEight?
The outcome will be determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 3 May 2021, Biden's approval rating was 53.5%. The data will be accessed for resolution on 16 August 2021.
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2021-05-14; closed: 2021-08-13
Options: Lower than 45.0%, Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive, Higher than 50.0% but lower than 55.0%, 55.0% or higher
Answer: Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive
Question: Will Ashraf Ghani either flee Afghanistan or cease to be its president before 1 January 2022?
As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (Al Jazeera, Military Times). Whether or not Ghani has fled Afghanistan will be determined using credible open source media reporting.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-07-16; closed: 2021-08-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?
Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post (CBS News, Council on Foreign Relations, Federation of American Scientists, Cornell, TechCrunch).
Tags: Business, Technology, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2020-12-31; closed: 2021-08-14
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?
Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action (Forbes, NY Times, Nerd Wallet). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress (CNBC, Forbes). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.
Tags: Finance, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2020-12-18; closed: 2021-08-14
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?
Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary (BBC, World Meteorological Organization, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports (NOAA). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June (NOAA - June 2020 Report).
Tags: Environment
Question opened: 2020-07-31; closed: 2021-08-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government (Deutsche Welle, Moscow Times). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations (Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation [in Russian], Moscow Times).
Tags: Society, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-02-24; closed: 2021-08-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the FDA and/or CDC recommend that at least some Americans fully vaccinated for COVID-19 receive a COVID-19 vaccine booster shot?
On 8 July 2021, vaccine manufacturer Pfizer announced that it would seek emergency use authorization from the FDA for a booster shot to protect against COVID-19 (CNN, CBS News). On the same day, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a joint statement stating that "Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time" (hhs.gov). The administration of booster shots as part of medical research would not count.
Tags: Technology, Health, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-07-23; closed: 2021-08-13
Options: Before 1 September 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022
Answer: Before 1 September 2021
Question: What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?
In early 2021 Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut oil production to a little over 8 million (or equivalently, 8,000 thousand) barrels per day, but it is looking to increase production starting in May 2021 (Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data for Saudi Arabia as reported in the "OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d" table in the "World Oil Supply" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report for August 2021 (OPEC). The February 2021 report showing data for January 2021 reported that Saudi Arabia produced 9,054 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) (OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report - February 2021, see Table 5-8 on page number 47).
Tags: Business, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-04-09; closed: 2021-08-01
Options: Less than 8,000 tb/d, Between 8,000 tb/d and 8,500 tb/d, inclusive, More than 8,500 tb/d but less than 9,000 tb/d, Between 9,000 tb/d and 9,500 tb/d, inclusive, More than 9,500 tb/d
Answer: Between 9,000 tb/d and 9,500 tb/d, inclusive
Question: What will happen next regarding New York Governor Andrew Cuomo?
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is facing calls to resign amid a series of sexual harassment allegations and questions about his handling of COVID-19 policy with nursing homes (ABC News, CBS News, City & State New York). If Cuomo announces both that he will not seek reelection as governor and has resigned or will resign in the same statement, the question would close "Cuomo will announce that he will resign as governor."
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics
Question opened: 2021-04-16; closed: 2021-08-10
Options: Cuomo will announce that he will not seek reelection as governor in 2022, Cuomo will either resign as governor or announce that he will resign as governor, Cuomo will be removed from office by an impeachment trial, None of these will occur before 1 April 2022
Answer: Cuomo will either resign as governor or announce that he will resign as governor
Question: Will Great Britain win more gold medals at the 2020 Olympics than the People's Republic of China?
The 2020 Olympics are scheduled for 23 July - 8 August 2021 (Olympics).
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2021-06-11; closed: 2021-08-08
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in women's football (soccer)?
The women’s football gold medal match is scheduled for 6 August 2021 (Olympics).
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2021-06-11; closed: 2021-08-06
Options: Great Britain, Japan, The Netherlands, United States, Another country, No gold medal will be awarded for this event
Answer: Another country
Question: When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) exceed 350,000 in the UK?
Increasing cases of the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) are presenting challenges for the UK (Guardian, Public Health England, British Medical Journal). The outcome will be determined by total confirmed and probable case data from Public Health England, published weekly here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers. There were 42,323 total confirmed and probable cases of the Delta variant in the UK up to 9 June 2021 (Variants: distribution of case data - 11 June 2021). The question would close, if not before, upon the release of data up to 11 August 2021, which is expected on 13 August 2021.
Tags: Technology, Health
Question opened: 2021-06-18; closed: 2021-08-05
Options: On or before 14 July 2021, Between 15 July and 28 July 2021, Between 29 July and 11 August 2021, Not before 12 August 2021
Answer: Between 29 July and 11 August 2021
Question: Will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person before 1 August 2021?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet amidst an increase in tensions in the Ukrainian Donbass region (NBC News, Unian, US News).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-04-30; closed: 2021-08-01
Options: Yes, in either Russia or Ukraine, Yes, somewhere other than Russia or Ukraine, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 August 2021, will legislation authorizing or enabling an extension or replacement of the CDC's nationwide eviction moratorium past 31 July 2021 become law?
On 24 June 2021, the CDC extended its nationwide eviction moratorium through 31 July 2021 (CDC, NPR). On 29 June 2021, the Supreme Court, by a 5-4 vote, rejected a request for the moratorium to be blocked, with Justice Kavanaugh noting that he believes "clear and specific congressional authorization (via new legislation) would be necessary" for another extension (US Supreme Court, The Hill). Legislation of nationwide applicability with exceptions would count.
Tags: Business, Health, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-07-02; closed: 2021-08-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?
Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years (TASS, Daily Mail). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted (CSIS). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.
Tags: Technology, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-01-22; closed: 2021-08-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?
Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants (Apple). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales (9 to 5 Mac, ABS-CBN). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the "Annual Reports on Form 10-K" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 (Apple 10-K (2020), see page 21).
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2020-10-30; closed: 2021-06-28
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?
Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut (CNBC, Newsweek, Bloomberg, Wealth Daily). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial (Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing), Investopedia (SPACs)).
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2021-03-12; closed: 2021-07-29
Options: Less than $25 billion, Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive, More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion, Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive, More than $55 billion, Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021
Answer: Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive
Question: At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021?
The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 27-28 July 2021.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2021-03-19; closed: 2021-07-28
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in men’s synchronized 3-meter springboard diving?
The men’s synchronized 3-meter springboard diving final is scheduled for 28 July 2021 (Olympics).
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2021-06-11; closed: 2021-07-28
Options: China, Germany, Great Britain, Russia (Russian Olympic Committee), Another country, No gold medal will be awarded for this event
Answer: China
Question: How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?
As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth (Economist). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 (Tesla Q1 2020, Tesla Q2 2020). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.
Tags: Business, Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2020-11-27; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, 350,000 or more
Answer: 350,000 or more
Question: Before 22 July 2021, will Hamas or the Israeli government accuse the other of violating the Gaza ceasefire agreed to on 20 May 2021?
After 11 days of fighting in and around Gaza, Hamas and Israel agreed to a ceasefire (Economist, BBC, NBC News). For the purposes of this question, "Israeli government" means the prime minister or other cabinet-level ministers.
Tags: Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-05-21; closed: 2021-07-22
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?
The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions (NBA). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 (NBC Sports).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2021-02-05; closed: 2021-07-21
Options: Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Another team, There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship
Answer: Milwaukee Bucks
Question: When will the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) first represent more than 67.0% of COVID cases in the US?
Delta variant (B.1.617.2, formerly known as the India variant) case growth in the United States raises concerns about a possible worsening of the COVID-19 pandemic in the fall (CBS News, CNN). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States, grouped in 2-week intervals, here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. For the week ending 22 May 2021, the Delta variant's percent share of COVID lineage in the US was 2.7% as of the launch of this question. Data from the “Nowcast” option would count.
Tags: Technology, Health
Question opened: 2021-06-18; closed: 2021-07-18
Options: The two weeks ending 3 July 2021 or earlier, The two weeks ending either 17 July 2021 or 31 July 2021, The two weeks ending either 14 August 2021 or 28 August 2021, The two weeks ending 11 September 2021 or 25 September 2021, Not before 26 September 2021
Answer: The two weeks ending either 17 July 2021 or 31 July 2021
Question: Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum open to the general public before 1 August 2021?
After various delays, the Humboldt Forum in Berlin has been completed but remains shuttered due to COVID-19 restrictions (Economist, The Local (Germany), France 24, Humboldt Forum). The Humboldt Forum opening to the public with restrictions, such as requiring proof of COVID-19 vaccination or setting occupancy limits, would count. Opening only to specific groups (e.g., the press, artists) would not count as opening to the public.
Tags: Business, Society, Health, Entertainment, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-04-02; closed: 2021-07-20
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?
Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 (Economist, CNN, Reuters). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed (Peruvian Times).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-12-04; closed: 2021-06-07
Options: A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action), A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress), A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force), A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party), Another candidate, There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021
Answer: Another candidate
Question: Between 18 June 2021 and 18 July 2021, will protests in Peru result in any fatalities?
Peru's tight runoff election results have led to mostly peaceful demonstrations in Lima, recalling a week of political protests in late 2020 that turned violent (Reuters, NY Times, BBC). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.
Tags: Security and Conflict, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-06-17; closed: 2021-07-18
Options: No, Yes, between 1 and 10, Yes, between 11 and 50, Yes, between 51 and 150, Yes, more than 150
Answer: No
Question: Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher on 16 July 2021 than it was on 16 June 2021?
Oil prices have risen considerably in 2021 (Business Today). The outcome will be determined by the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). The closing price of Brent on 16 June 2021 was $74.39 per barrel.
Tags: Business
Question opened: 2021-06-17; closed: 2021-07-16
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?
After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen (Economist). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (National Bureau of Statistics). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.
Tags: Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-11-27; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Less than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive, More than 8.0%
Answer: Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive
Question: Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?
Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China (Guardian, Toronto Star, CBC, South China Morning Post).
Tags: Foreign Policy, US Politics, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-12-16; closed: 2021-07-15
Options: Yes, only Michael Kovrig, Yes, only Michael Spavor, Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?
Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO (Al Jazeera, BBC, Defense News).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-09-25; closed: 2021-07-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 15 July 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics will not commence in July 2021?
Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics to summer 2021 (ESPN, Tokyo2020.org). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all (NPR, Business Insider).
Tags: Business, Health, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2021-05-14; closed: 2021-07-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July﻿ 2021?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 27 June 2021 through 3 July﻿ 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 26 June 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 3 July 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-06-02; closed: 2021-07-03
Options: Fewer than 20,000, Between 20,000 and 60,000, inclusive, More than 60,000 but fewer than 100,000, Between 100,000 and 140,000, inclusive, More than 140,000 but fewer than 180,000, Between 180,000 and 220,000, inclusive, More than 220,000 but fewer than 260,000, Between 260,000 and 300,000, inclusive, More than 300,000 but fewer than 340,000, Between 340,000 and 380,000, inclusive, More than 380,000 but fewer than 420,000, 420,000 or more
Answer: More than 60,000 but fewer than 100,000
Question: How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July﻿ 2021?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 27 June 2021 through 3 July﻿ 2021, inclusive (JSU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 26 June 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 3 July 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-06-02; closed: 2021-07-03
Options: Fewer than 1,000, Between 1,000 and 2,000, inclusive, More than 2,000 but fewer than 3,000, Between 3,000 and 4,000, inclusive, More than 4,000 but fewer than 5,000, Between 5,000 and 6,000 inclusive, More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,000, Between 7,000 and 8,000 inclusive, More than 8,000 but fewer than 9,000, 9,000 or more
Answer: Between 1,000 and 2,000, inclusive
Question: Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?
Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held (Reuters). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support (BBC, Reuters). The closing date for this question will not be extended.
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-01-15; closed: 2021-07-11
Options: Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats, Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most, No
Answer: Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most