jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Before 1 September 2022, will the government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) officially announce a change to its weekend?
In 2006, the UAE changed its weekend from Thursday-Friday to Friday-Saturday to have more business hours consistent with Europe and elsewhere around the world (BBC, Esquire Middle East). There has been speculation that there could be additional changes coming, though the government has denied any plans (Arab News, Gulf Today). Any calendar change, including an official policy for a "half-day" on Friday, for example, would count. The date a change would take effect would be immaterial, but a date the change would take effect must be included in the announcement.
Tags: Business, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-10-01; closed: 2021-12-07
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?
Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 (US News, BBC, Time). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-02-05; closed: 2021-12-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2021 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted that the 2021 hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2021 to 30 November 2021, will be "above-normal" (NOAA). The outcome will be determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center (National Hurricane Center, National Hurricane Center - Reports).
Tags: Environment
Question opened: 2021-06-04; closed: 2021-12-01
Options: 2 or fewer, 3, 4, 5, 6 or more
Answer: 4
Question: Which major cryptocurrency will perform best between 27 May 2021 and 29 November 2021?
In the event of an apparent tie, "Closing Price (USD)" data will be exported from the "1y" chart for resolution. If there is still a tie, the question will close on the cryptocurrency with the larger market cap.
Tags: Finance, Technology, The outcome will be determined by data from CoinDesk, using the "1y" chart, by dividing the price dated 29 November 2021 (PT) by the price dated 27 May 2021 (PT), which were:, Bitcoin (CoinDesk): $38,717.77, Cardano (Ada) (CoinDesk): $1.66, Ethereum (CoinDesk): $2,774.54, XRP (Ripple) (CoinDesk): $0.979175
Question opened: 2021-05-28; closed: 2021-11-29
Options: Bitcoin, Cardano (Ada), Ethereum, XRP (Ripple)
Answer: Ethereum
Question: Will at least 3.5 million people in New Zealand be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before 30 December 2021?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the NZ Ministry of Health for "second doses administered" (NZ Ministry of Health). Data will be obtained at approximately 5pm ET on 30 December 2021 if the question is still open at that time. If the NZ Ministry of Health changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.
Tags: Technology, Health
Question opened: 2021-06-25; closed: 2021-11-20
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 12 November 2021?
Brazil is struggling to bring COVID-19 under control amidst continued domestic political acrimony over the response (The Week, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 12 November 2021 will be assessed on 18 November 2021.
Tags: Technology, Health
Question opened: 2021-07-16; closed: 2021-11-12
Options: Fewer than 22 million, Between 22 million and 24 million, inclusive, More than 24 million but fewer than 26 million, Between 26 million and 28 million, inclusive, More than 28 million
Answer: Fewer than 22 million
Question: What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021?
The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, faces an uncertain future due to lumber prices, labor market uncertainties, and fluctuating mortgage rates (CNBC, Fool, Housing Wire). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for October 2021, typically in November (FRED). For October 2020, housing starts totaled 1.514 million.
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-05-21; closed: 2021-11-01
Options: Less than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million but less than 1.8 million, Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive, More than 2.0 million
Answer: Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive
Question: Before 4 January 2022, will H.R.3684, also known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, become law?
H.R.3684, also known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, is one of the core components of the Biden administration's legislative agenda (H.R.3684, White House, CNN). An amended H.R.3684 becoming law would count.
Tags: Economic Policy, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-10-22; closed: 2021-11-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Which driver will win the Brazilian (São Paulo) Grand Prix?
The 2021 São Paulo Grand Prix is scheduled for 14 November 2021 as one of the closing rounds of the 2021 Formula One World Championship (Sky Sports).
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2021-11-12; closed: 2021-11-14
Options: Max Verstappen, Lewis Hamilton, Another result
Answer: Lewis Hamilton
Question: Will the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) announce the finalization of the "Paris Rulebook," the rules for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, before 16 November 2021?
A majority of the "Paris Rulebook" was adopted at COP24 in 2018, but unresolved issues remain (Sky News, World Resources Institute, Gov.uk, Environmental Defense Fund). COP26 is scheduled for 31 October 2021 to 12 November 2021 (UKCOP26.org).
Tags: Environment, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-08-27; closed: 2021-11-13
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be total OPEC crude oil production for October 2021?
There is ongoing disagreement within OPEC regarding crude oil production (Business Times, CNBC, World Oil). The outcome will be determined using monthly data for "Total OPEC" reported in the "OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d" table of the "World Oil Supply" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report (OPEC - Monthly Oil Market Report). The July 2021 report shows "Total OPEC" produced 26,034 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in June 2021 (OPEC - Monthly Oil Market Report, see Table 5 - 7 on page 49 in the document). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and closed when the October 2021 data are released, scheduled for November 2021.
Tags: Business, Technology, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-07-16; closed: 2021-11-01
Options: Fewer than 25,500 tb/d, Between 25,500 tb/d and 27,000 tb/d, inclusive, More than 27,000 tb/d but fewer than 28,500 tb/d, 28,500 tb/d or more
Answer: More than 27,000 tb/d but fewer than 28,500 tb/d
Question: What will be Rivian's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?
Electric vehicle maker Rivian is reportedly aiming to go public in late October or November of 2021 (CNBC, Muscle Cars and Trucks). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Rivian goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial (Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing), Investopedia (SPACs)).
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2021-09-24; closed: 2021-11-10
Options: Less than $50 billion, Between $50 billion and $70 billion, inclusive, More than $70 billion but less than $90 billion, Between $90 billion and $110 billion, inclusive, More than $110 billion, Rivian will not trade publicly before 1 January 2022
Answer: More than $70 billion but less than $90 billion
Question: Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?
While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong (Costa Rica News, The Moscow Times, Kyiv Post, Washington Post). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government (government.ru).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-01-15; closed: 2021-11-07
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?
Question opened: 2021-01-15; closed: 2021-11-07
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: At close of business on 3 November 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 22 September 2021?
The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its November meeting is scheduled for 2-3 November 2021.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2021-06-18; closed: 2021-11-03
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: Before 16 December 2021, will the Federal Reserve announce it will reduce its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?
The Federal Reserve's monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, begun early in the pandemic, is expected to taper down eventually (Market Watch, Economic Times). The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the FOMC (Federal Reserve). As of 28 April 2021, the Federal Reserve was increasing its "holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month" (Federal Reserve - April 2021 Statement). The date a reduction would take effect is immaterial, and conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo operations are immaterial (NY Fed).
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-04-30; closed: 2021-11-03
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Who will be elected governor of Virginia in 2021?
The election is scheduled for 2 November 2021 (The Hill).
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2021-10-07; closed: 2021-11-02
Options: The Democratic Party candidate, The Republican Party candidate, Someone else
Answer: The Republican Party candidate
Question: Which team will win the Major League Baseball World Series in 2021?
The 2021 World Series is scheduled for 26 October 2021 to 3 November 2021 (Sportsnaut).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2021-08-13; closed: 2021-11-03
Options: Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Oakland Athletics, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, Another team, No team will win the 2021 World Series
Answer: Another team
Question: As of 1 November 2021, will Waka Kotahi list 321 or more qualifying electrical vehicle (EV) charging stations as available in New Zealand?
The EV charging station network in New Zealand is expanding (Stuff). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Waka Kotahi, New Zealand's transport agency (Waka Kotahi). The site includes a live map and table of qualifying charging stations. Data on the "Table view" will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00 pm ET on 1 November 2021. For more on "qualifying" stations, see "Minimum requirements for the nationwide network" (Waka Kotahi).
Tags: Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2021-07-02; closed: 2021-11-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?
Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny (AP, Moscow Times). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-02-05; closed: 2021-11-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 November 2021, will a new government mask mandate for individuals fully vaccinated for COVID-19 that includes indoor restaurants and/or retail establishments be imposed on New York City?
With COVID-19 cases increasing, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced new mandates for proof of COVID-19 vaccination in order to use many indoor locations but stopped short of imposing a new mask mandate (NYC.gov, NY Post, CNN, NYC.gov - COVID-19 Page). The question would close upon a mandate taking effect. A mandate with specific exceptions would count, and a mandate would not have to cover the whole of New York City to count.
Tags: Business, Health, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-08-06; closed: 2021-11-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will New Zealand's AgResearch report having a net annual financial surplus (pretax) in its 2020/21 fiscal year?
AgResearch is "responsible for delivering innovative science and research outcomes specifically for the agricultural sector," and its fiscal year is 1 July to 30 June (AgResearch). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as provided in AgResearch's 2021 Annual Report, expected in October 2021 (AgResearch - Annual Reports). For FY 2019/20, AgResearch reported a net annual financial surplus of NZ$3,780 before tax, in thousands of NZ dollars (AgResearch - 2020 Annual Report, see "Surplus/(deficit) before tax" on page 103).
Tags: Environment, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-05-21; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the 7-day average number of new cases of COVID-19 in Louisiana for the week ending 20 October 2021?
Louisiana continues to struggle with COVID-19 in the wake of Hurricane Ida (USA Today). The outcome will be determined using data as published by the New York Times (NY Times). The 7-day average of new cases of COVID-19 in Louisiana for the week ending 1 September 2021 was 2,991. The data for the week ending 20 October 2021 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 26 October 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-09-10; closed: 2021-10-20
Options: Fewer than 1,500, Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive, More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500, Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive, More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500, 7,500 or more
Answer: Fewer than 1,500
Question: Will the rate of new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100k people in Massachusetts be higher on 19 October 2021 than it was on 7 September 2021?
The outcome will be determined using data as provided by 91-DIVOC (91-DIVOC, parameters are set with the link). Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 22 October 2021.*This question uses an experimental framing. Please read each answer bin carefully before making a forecast.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2021-09-08; closed: 2021-10-19
Options: Yes, having first fallen below 18.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts, Yes, but without having first fallen below 18.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts, No, having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts, No, but without having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts
Answer: No, having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts
Question: Before 18 December 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "Worked from home and didn’t travel to work" fell to 15% or lower?
The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' "Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (COVID-19 module)" dataset (ONS, click the green button under "Current edition of this dataset" to download the file). In their release dated 27 August 2021, the ONS reported that 21% of those working "Worked from home and didn’t travel to work" (see "%" under "Working population" in Table 5). Links to prior datasets may be found in the sheet "Previous Publications." In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 17 December 2021. As these data are occasionally reported elsewhere on the Thursday prior to release, the question would close as of the day before a dataset release reporting a figure of 15% or lower.
Tags: Business, Technology, Health, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-08-27; closed: 2021-10-21
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?
The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for "All items" in September 2021 (BLS). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-03-17; closed: 2021-10-01
Options: Lower than 1.7%, Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive, Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%, Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive, Higher than 3.1%
Answer: Higher than 3.1%
Question: What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for the next James Bond film No Time to Die?
Spectre (2015): $70,403,148
Tags: Business, Entertainment, No Time to Die, starring Daniel Craig for the fifth time as James Bond, is the 25th installment in the Bond movie franchise (IMDb). The outcome will be determined with "Domestic Weekend" data for the weekend of 8-10 October 2021 as reported by Box Office Mojo (Box Office Mojo). If the release date is postponed beyond 2021, the question will be voided. The opening weekends for the last two Bond films totaled:, Skyfall (2012): $88,364,714
Question opened: 2021-06-04; closed: 2021-10-08
Options: No Time to Die will gross as much or less than Spectre ($70,403,148), No Time to Die will gross more than Spectre but less than Skyfall ($88,364,714), No Time to Die will gross as much or more than Skyfall
Answer: No Time to Die will gross as much or less than Spectre ($70,403,148)
Question: Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022?
Mozambique's ongoing insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado intensified in 2020 (BBC, Al Jazeera, International Crisis Group). On 23 June 2021, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) "approved the Mandate for the SADC Standby Force Mission to the Republic of Mozambique, to be deployed in support of Mozambique to combat of terrorism and acts of violent extremism in Cabo Delgado," though details on when and a force of what size remain to be determined (SADC, Al Jazeera, Translators Without Borders). For the purposes of this question, "forces" means national military forces or law enforcement.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-06-30; closed: 2021-09-25
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 2 October 2021, will the Taliban submit credentials to the Secretary-General of the UN to represent Afghanistan for the 76th UN General Assembly session?
With the collapse of the Afghan government in August 2021, no one is sure who might represent the country at the UN General Assembly (AP, UN). Representatives of member states must submit credentials to the Secretary-General in order to participate (UNGA Rules of Procedure, Just Security, Christian Science Monitor). The 76th Session of the UN General Assembly is scheduled to open on 14 September 2021 (Politico). The question would close upon the UN General Assembly's recognition of any representative(s) as representing Afghanistan. Provisional recognition per Rule 29 of the General Assembly's rules of procedure alone would not count. Attendance alone would not count (e.g., AP).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-08-27; closed: 2021-10-02
Options: Yes, and their credentials will be recognized, Yes, but their credentials will not be recognized, No
Answer: Yes, but their credentials will not be recognized
Question: Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session?
The NUG is a rival government established after the Myanmar Defense Forces staged a coup on 1 February 2021 (France 24, NUG). The 76th Session of the UN General Assembly is scheduled to open on 14 September 2021, but who will be recognized as the delegate(s) for Myanmar remains to be seen (UN, Asia Times, CNN, UN). The question would close upon the UN General Assembly's recognition of any delegate(s) as representing Myanmar. Attendance alone would not count (e.g., AP).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-07-30; closed: 2021-09-14
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?
An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize (Economist, NY Times, The Hill). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.
Tags: Business, Technology, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2021-01-08; closed: 2021-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?
A Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January (CNBC, CNET). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits (Business Insider, CNET). A Wells notice "is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker" (Cornell).
Tags: Business, Technology, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-03-05; closed: 2021-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report 40 million or more confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India?
India has faced a monumental surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths since April 2021 (BBC, AP). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO). Data will be accessed as necessary no later than 2 October 2021.
Tags: Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-05-07; closed: 2021-10-01
Options: Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 July 2021, Between 1 August 2021 and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021
Answer: Not before 1 October 2021