jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-03-31; closed: 2017-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-03-31; closed: 2017-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-03-31; closed: 2017-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-03-31; closed: 2017-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-03-31; closed: 2017-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-03-31; closed: 2017-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the domestic box office gross in the opening week for Disney's Frozen 2, according to Box Office Mojo?
Frozen 2 is the sequel to Frozen from 2013, which brought in over $1.2 billion worldwide (IMDB, BoxOfficeMojo, /Film). The film is scheduled to be released on 22 November 2019, and the outcome will be determined with "Weekly Box Office" data for the week of 22 November to 28 November as reported by Box Office Mojo (BoxOfficeMojo).
Tags: Business, Entertainment
Question opened: 2019-10-11; closed: 2019-11-22
Options: Less than $125,000,000, Between $125,000,000 and $150,000,000, inclusive, More than $150,000,000 but less than $175,000,000, Between $175,000,000 and $200,000,000, inclusive, More than $200,000,000
Answer: More than $200,000,000
Question: Between 12 August 2019 and 30 November 2019, will Russia and Iran conduct any joint naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz?
Possible joint naval exercises between Russia and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz have been announced for sometime this year, against the backdrop of increasing tensions in the region (National Interest, Newsweek, TASS).
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2019-08-12; closed: 2019-12-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be The We Company's (WeWork's parent company) end-of-day market capitalization on the day of its initial public offering (IPO)?
The We Company (WeWork's parent company), a firm that provides shared workspaces and commercial space to its clients among other services, publicly filed for an IPO in August 2019 (The We Company, SEC, CNBC, Business Insider, Forbes, Bloomberg). The outcome of this question will be determined by the end-of-day Market Capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.
Tags: Business, Finance
Question opened: 2019-09-06; closed: 2019-11-30
Options: Less than $10 billion, Between $10 billion and $25 billion, inclusive, More than $25 billion but less than $40 billion, $40 billion or more, The We Company will not have an IPO before 30 November 2019
Answer: The We Company will not have an IPO before 30 November 2019
Question: What will be the end-of-day closing value for the U.S. dollar against the Mexican peso on 29 November 2019?
Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg at https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDMXN:CUR.
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2019-02-08; closed: 2019-11-29
Options: Less than Mex$17.5000, Between Mex$17.5000 and Mex$18.5000, inclusive, More than Mex$18.5000 but less than Mex$19.5000, Between Mex$19.5000 and Mex$20.5000, inclusive, More than Mex$20.5000
Answer: Between Mex$19.5000 and Mex$20.5000, inclusive
Question: How many seats in the Congress of Deputies will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) win in the next Spanish general election?
The next Spanish general election is scheduled for 10 November 2019 and all 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies are to be contested (Economist, The Guardian, El Pais [in Spanish]). PSOE won 123 seats in the Congress of Deputies in the April 2019 general election but was not able to form a government, leading to the November 2019 elections (El Pais, Euronews, El Pais).
Tags: Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2019-09-27; closed: 2019-11-10
Options: Less than 108, Between 108 and 120, inclusive, More than 120 but less than 132, Between 132 and 144, inclusive, More than 144
Answer: Between 108 and 120, inclusive
Question: On 26 November 2019, will Chile be under a state of emergency?
Chilean President Sebastián Piñera declared a state of emergency on 19 October 2019 in response to protests related to proposed increases in subway fares and other issues (Financial Times, Al Jazeera, Time, Chile Library of Congress [in Spanish]). The state of emergency was lifted on 27 October 2019, but protests continue (Yahoo, CNN). The state of emergency does not need to be nationwide to resolve the question as "Yes." Chile being under a state of siege on 26 November 2019 would also count.
Tags: Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2019-11-01; closed: 2019-11-26
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What book will win the 2019 National Book Award for fiction?
The National Book Awards are annual literary awards for different categories of writing, including fiction, with five finalists going into the awards ceremony scheduled for 20 November 2019 (National Book Foundation, NPR).
Tags: Society, Entertainment
Question opened: 2019-10-15; closed: 2019-11-20
Options: Trust Exercise by Susan Choi, Sabrina & Corina: Stories by Kali Fajardo-Anstine, Black Leopard, Red Wolf by Marlon James, The Other Americans by Laila Lalami, Disappearing Earth by Julia Phillips
Answer: Trust Exercise by Susan Choi
Question: What book will win the 2019 National Book Award for nonfiction?
The National Book Awards are annual literary awards for different categories of writing, including nonfiction, with five finalists going into the awards ceremony scheduled for 20 November 2019 (National Book Foundation, NPR).
Tags: Society, Entertainment
Question opened: 2019-10-15; closed: 2019-11-20
Options: The Yellow House by Sarah M. Broom, Thick: And Other Essays by Tressie McMillan Cottom, What You Have Heard is True: A Memoir of Witness and Resistance by Carolyn Forché, The Heartbeat of Wounded Knee: Native America from 1890 to the Present by David Treuer, Solitary by Albert Woodfox with Leslie George
Answer: The Yellow House by Sarah M. Broom
Question: Between 25 October 2019 and 20 November 2019, how many candidates for the Democratic nomination for president of the United States will cease to be candidates?
As of 25 October 2019, the 18 Democratic candidates relevant to this question are: Michael Bennet, Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Steve Bullock, Pete Buttigieg, Julián Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Wayne Messam, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Joe Sestak, Tom Steyer, Elizabeth Warren, Marianne Williamson, and Andrew Yang (NY Times). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that a candidate no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that a candidate is suspending his or her campaign.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2019-10-25; closed: 2019-11-20
Options: None, One or two, Three or four, Five or more
Answer: One or two
Question: Who will win the 2019 Bolivian presidential election?
Bolivian general elections are scheduled for 20 October 2019, with a runoff scheduled for 15 December 2019 if needed (Americas Society/Council of the Americas). Incumbent President Evo Morales is running for a fourth consecutive term after the Supreme Electoral Court ruled in 2018 that term limits were unconstitutional (Al Jazeera, Reuters).
Tags: Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2019-10-04; closed: 2019-10-20
Options: Carlos Mesa, Evo Morales, Óscar Ortiz, None of these
Answer: Evo Morales
Question: Before 15 November 2019, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia either in Iran or at sea?
Recent attacks on Saudi Arabian oil and gas infrastructure have further aggravated regional tensions in the Middle East (Al Jazeera, CNN). While Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility, accusations have been levied against (and denied by) Iran (BBC, CNBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2019-09-18; closed: 2019-11-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 15 November 2019, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?
Recent attacks on Saudi Arabian oil and gas infrastructure have further aggravated regional tensions in the Middle East (Al Jazeera, CNN). While Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility, accusations have been levied against (and denied by) Iran (BBC, CNBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2019-09-18; closed: 2019-11-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Who will be elected governor of Louisiana in the 2019 gubernatorial election?
The first round of the 2019 gubernatorial election is scheduled for 12 October 2019, with a runoff election scheduled for 16 November 2019 as needed (Louisiana Sec. of State). Republicans Ralph Abraham and Eddie Rispone, among others, are running against incumbent Democrat John Bel Edwards (News Star).
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2019-08-30; closed: 2019-11-16
Options: Ralph Abraham (Republican), John Bel Edwards (Democrat), Eddie Rispone (Republican), None of the above
Answer: John Bel Edwards (Democrat)
Question: Who will be elected governor of Kentucky in the 2019 gubernatorial election?
The Kentucky gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on 5 November 2019. Democratic nominee Andy Beshear is running against incumbent Republican nominee Matt Bevin (RealClearPolitics).
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2019-08-30; closed: 2019-11-05
Options: Andy Beshear (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5.00% of the total vote, Andy Beshear (Democrat) by a margin of 5.00% or less of the total vote, Matt Bevin (Republican) by a margin of 5.00% or less of the total vote, Matt Bevin (Republican) by a margin greater than 5.00% of the total vote, None of the above
Answer: Andy Beshear (Democrat) by a margin of 5.00% or less of the total vote
Question: What percentage of all domestic U.S. equity funds will be outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index for the one-year period ending 30 June 2019?
Outcome will be determined by the S&P Dow Jones Indices' SPIVA U.S. Mid-Year 2019 Scorecard, typically published in September. For the one-year period ending 30 June 2018, 57.98% of all domestic U.S. equity funds were outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index. The relevant figure for 2018 can be found on page 4 of the SPIVA U.S. Mid-Year 2018 Scorecard, in the table labeled Report 1, first row, "All Domestic Funds". Published reports can be found here.
Tags: Finance
Question opened: 2018-11-16; closed: 2019-07-01
Options: Less than 40.00%, Between 40.00% and 60.00%, inclusive, More than 60.00% but less than 80.00%, 80.00% or more
Answer: More than 60.00% but less than 80.00%
Question: What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for October 2019, according to OPEC?
Recent attacks on oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia have raised questions about the short- and medium-term impacts on oil production by OPEC's largest member (CNN). The question will be resolved using monthly data for "Saudi Arabia" reported in the "OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d" table of the "World Oil Supply" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report (OPEC). In the August 2019 report, the relevant data can be found in Table 5.9 on page 60 in the document (OPEC). That report shows Saudi Arabia produced 9,698 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in July 2019. The question will be suspended on 31 October 2019 and closed when the October data are released, typically in November.
Tags: Business, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2019-09-20; closed: 2019-11-01
Options: Less than 7,000 tb/d, Between 7,000 tb/d to 8,000 tb/d, inclusive, More than 8,000 tb/d and less than 9,000 tb/d, Between 9,000 tb/d to 10,000 tb/d, inclusive, More than 10,000 tb/d
Answer: Between 9,000 tb/d to 10,000 tb/d, inclusive
Question: What will be the percentage change in average UK house prices over the 12-month period to September 2019?
The Brexit process is creating uncertainty for house prices in the UK (BBC). Outcome will be determined by the UK House Price Index for September 2019, six months after the date when the UK is scheduled to leave the EU. This question will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and resolved when data are reported by the Office for National Statistics, expected in mid-November 2019 (GOV.UK). The November 2018 UK House Price Index, which shows the percentage change over the 12-month period to November 2018 as 2.8%, can be found here.
Tags: Economic Indicators, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2019-01-24; closed: 2019-10-01
Options: Less than -3.0%, Between -3.0% and -1.0%, inclusive, More than -1.0% but less than 1.0%, Between 1.0% and 3.0%, inclusive, More than 3.0%
Answer: Between 1.0% and 3.0%, inclusive
Question: Which party will win control of the Virginia Senate in the 2019 elections?
The Virginia Senate is the upper house of the state's legislature (Virginia Senate). All 40 Senate seats are up in this election, scheduled for 5 November 2019 (Virginia Mercury). If control of the chamber is dependent upon a run-off or a recount, the question will remain suspended as scheduled and resolve when the outcome is known.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2019-09-06; closed: 2019-11-05
Options: Democrats, Republicans
Answer: Democrats