jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Who will win the 2020 Washington Democratic primary?
The Washington primary is scheduled for 10 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-21; closed: 2020-03-10
Options: Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else, Michael Bloomberg
Answer: Joe Biden
Question: Will the monthly U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) reach or exceed 4.0% for any month before 1 November 2020?
Outcome will be determined by the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS (Release), BLS (Data)). If applicable, the question will be suspended on 31 October 2020 and resolved when the data for October are first released, scheduled for 6 November 2020 (BLS (Schedule)). Revisions to U3 data would be immaterial.
Tags: Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2019-11-15; closed: 2020-04-02
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the closing price for Brent crude oil on 31 March 2020?
The outcome will be determined by the closing  price for Brent crude oil as reported by Business Insider (Business Insider).
Tags: Business
Question opened: 2019-12-20; closed: 2020-03-31
Options: Less than $63.00 per barrel, Between $63.00 and $69.00 per barrel, inclusive, More than $69.00 per barrel
Answer: Less than $63.00 per barrel
Question: Before 1 October 2020, will the European Council decide to open accession negotiations with Albania and/or North Macedonia?
Albania and North Macedonia have been candidates for EU membership since 2014 and 2005, respectively (consilium.europa.eu). Some member states want negotiations to begin soon (Politico, Reuters).
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-02-14; closed: 2020-03-27
Options: Yes, only Albania, Yes, only North Macedonia, Yes, both Albania and North Macedonia, No
Answer: Yes, both Albania and North Macedonia
Question: Before 24 July 2020, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be postponed, canceled, and/or relocated?
The 2020 Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo, Japan, are scheduled for 24 July - 9 August 2020, with the Paralympic Games to follow 25 August - 6 September 2020 (Olympic.org, Paralympic.org). There is speculation the outbreak of COVID-19 could lead to postponing, canceling, or relocating the games (Time, BBC, Guardian, Newsweek).
Tags: Health, Sports
Question opened: 2020-02-28; closed: 2020-03-24
Options: Yes, the Olympic Games only, Yes, the Paralympic Games only, Yes, both, No
Answer: Yes, both
Question: Between 4 October 2019 and 1 April 2020, will legislation in a U.S. state allowing college athletes to receive financial compensation for their names, images, and/or likenesses become law?
California Governor Gavin Newsom signed legislation in September 2019 that would enable many college student-athletes to receive compensation for the use of the student’s name, image, or likeness, which runs counter to current NCAA rules (LA Times, CBS Sports, Wall Street Journal, Economist). The date a law would take effect and whether a law includes all college athletes are immaterial. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered to be a state.
Tags: Business, US Policy
Question opened: 2019-10-04; closed: 2020-03-21
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many total cases of Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of 20 March 2020?
The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak in China and elsewhere has caused alarm all around the globe (CNN, BBC). As of 27 January 2020, the WHO has reported 2,798 confirmed cases globally (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO for 20 March 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (WHO).NOTE 17 February 2020: As WHO has begun reporting both "laboratory-confirmed" and "clinically diagnosed" cases in their reporting, GJO will include both for so long as WHO reports the figures. See bullet point #2 under Highlights in the 17 February Situation Report.
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-01-28; closed: 2020-03-20
Options: Less than 10,000, Between 10,000 and 25,000, inclusive, More than 25,000 but less than 100,000, Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive, More than 200,000
Answer: More than 200,000
Question: Before 22 May 2020, will the Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix auto race be postponed or canceled?
The COVID-19 outbreak has already impacted the 2020 season of Formula 1 auto racing in China and Bahrain (CNN, Autoweek). The Monaco Grand Prix is currently scheduled for 22-24 May 2020 (BBC).
Tags: Health, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2020-03-13; closed: 2020-03-19
Options: Yes, No, but public attendance will be restricted, No, and public attendance will not be restricted
Answer: Yes
Question: Who will win the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary?
The Arizona primary is scheduled for 17 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-21; closed: 2020-03-17
Options: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else
Answer: Joe Biden
Question: At close of business on 18 March 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 29 January 2020?
The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 17-18 March 2020.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2019-12-13; closed: 2020-03-18
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Lower
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-28; closed: 2019-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No