jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: What will be the percentage change in the value of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in 2023 as compared to 2022?
The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by MSCI (MSCI - Emerging Markets, MSCI - Emerging Markets Index Chart, hover cursor over chart for data). The percentage change in the latest value dated in 2023 as compared to the latest value dated in 2022. The change in 2022 from 2021 was -20.09% (486.057/608.266-1 = -20.09%).
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-04-12; closed: 2023-12-29
Options: Down by more than 20.0%, Down by between 10.0% and 20.0%, inclusive, Between down less than 10.0% and up less than 10.0%, Up by between 10.0% and 20.0%, inclusive, Up by more than 20.0%
Answer: Between down less than 10.0% and up less than 10.0%
Question: How many US states will have five or more public hydrogen fueling stations as of 29 December 2023, according to Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC)?
As US policy pushes for more alternative fuels, there are efforts to expand the availability and use of hydrogen fuel (US News & World Report, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the AFDC at approximately 5:00PM ET on Friday 29 December 2023 (AFDC, click "Download Results" for a file listing all public stations and their locations). For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, Environment, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-10-25; closed: 2023-12-29
Options: Zero or 1, 2 to 4, 5 to 7, 8 to 10, 11 to 13, 14 or more
Answer: Zero or 1
Question: What will be the price per tonne of lithium carbonate in China on 29 December 2023?
As demand for batteries soars while much of the world works to decarbonize, prices for lithium carbonate have risen more than tenfold from December 2021 to December 2023 (Yahoo Finance, NPR, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Chinese price data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, select "1Yr" on the lower left of the chart). On 20 December 2022, the price per tonne was CNY552,500.
Tags: Business, Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2022-12-23; closed: 2023-12-29
Options: Less than CNY200,000, Between CNY200,000 and CNY325,000, inclusive, More than CNY325,000 but less than CNY450,000, Between CNY450,000 and CNY575,000, inclusive, More than CNY575,000 but less than CNY700,000, CNY700,000 or more
Answer: Less than CNY200,000
Question: What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of 27 December 2023?
The Federal Reserve's plan for reducing the size of its balance sheet was interrupted by bank failures in the US (CNBC, US News & World Report, Reuters, chart cited in US News link, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 26 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve, with "Zoom" set to "1 y" (Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve - Table Format (data table)). As of 12 April 2023, the Total Assets of the Federal Reserve were $8,614,797 million, or $8.614797 trillion.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-04-21; closed: 2023-12-27
Options: Less than $7.7 trillion, Between $7.7 trillion and $8.0 trillion, inclusive, More than $8.0 trillion but less than $8.3 trillion, Between $8.3 trillion and $8.6 trillion, inclusive, More than $8.6 trillion but less than $8.9 trillion, More than $8.9 trillion
Answer: Between $7.7 trillion and $8.0 trillion, inclusive
Question: What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 28 December 2023?
Mortgage rates have fallen from two-decade highs above 7%, but remain elevated as compared with recent history as the Federal Reserve decides on the course of interest rates (CNN, CNBC, Yahoo Finance). The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). For the week ending 4 May 2023, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 6.39%.
Tags: Business, Finance, Society, US Politics
Question opened: 2023-05-12; closed: 2023-12-28
Options: Lower than 4.25%, Between 4.25% and 5.00%, inclusive, Higher than 5.00% but lower than 5.75%, Between 5.75% and 6.50%, inclusive, Higher than 6.50% but lower than 7.25%, 7.25% or more
Answer: Higher than 6.50% but lower than 7.25%
Question: What will happen next regarding the FDIC's standard maximum deposit insurance amount limit?
Amid bank failure fallout, some are suggesting that the FDIC should increase the $250,000 maximum of deposit insurance at US banks (NPR, Politico, DNYUZ, Investopedia, Cornell, see (a)(1)(E)). Specific actions taken by the Federal Reserve and/or the executive branch that have the effect of covering deposits in excess of $250,000 would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Joint Statement by Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC). The date that legislation would take effect is immaterial.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Policy, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-03-17; closed: 2023-12-28
Options: Legislation to increase the limit from the current $250,000 will become law, Legislation to abolish the limit will become law, Neither will occur before 28 December 2023
Answer: Neither will occur before 28 December 2023
Question: Which NFL team will win the NFC North division in the 2023 season?
The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (NFL).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-09-01; closed: 2023-12-24
Options: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
Answer: Detroit Lions
Question: Before 1 January 2024, will an OPEC member country announce that it will leave the organization?
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has refuted reports that it plans to leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) amid policy differences between the UAE and Saudi Arabia (CNBC, Middle East Eye). Qatar and other member countries have left the organization before (Twitter, CNBC, CSIS). As of the launch of this question, there were 13 OPEC member countries (OPEC). The date the country would cease to be a member of OPEC is immaterial.
Tags: Business, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-03-10; closed: 2023-12-21
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 15 January 2024, will a US court rule or state-level electoral authority announce that Donald Trump is ineligible to become president pursuant to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?
As the 2024 election cycle approaches, there are calls to consider whether Donald Trump is barred from the office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution due to actions on 6 January 2021 in Washington, DC (ABC News, NBC News, Politico). Section 3 states that no person who held federal or state office who "engaged in insurrection or rebellion" against the US can hold any federal or state office (Cornell). Appeals and litigation subsequent to a ruling or announcement are immaterial. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state, and a ruling in either a state or federal court would count.
Tags: Society, Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-09-01; closed: 2023-12-19
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 15 December 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?
The question will be suspended on 14 December 2023 and the outcome determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 25 August 2023, Biden's approval rating was 41.4%. The data for 15 December 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 19 December 2023.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-09-01; closed: 2023-12-15
Options: Lower than 36.0%, Between 36.0% and 38.5%, inclusive, Higher than 38.5% but lower than 41.0%, Between 41.0% and 43.5%, inclusive, Higher than 43.5% but lower than 46.0%, Between 46.0% and 48.5%, inclusive, Higher than 48.5%
Answer: Higher than 38.5% but lower than 41.0%
Question: What will be the yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 15 December 2023?
The yield (or interest rate) of the 10-year Treasury is a major benchmark for finance in the US (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 14 December 2023 and the outcome determined using US Treasury data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected the following week (FRED). For 14 August 2023, the yield was 4.19%.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-08-18; closed: 2023-12-15
Options: Lower than 3.20%, Between 3.20% and 3.60%, inclusive, Higher than 3.60% but lower than 4.00%, Between 4.00% and 4.40%, inclusive, Higher than 4.40% but lower than 4.80%, Between 4.80% and 5.20%, inclusive, Higher than 5.20% but lower than 5.60%, 5.60% or higher
Answer: Higher than 3.60% but lower than 4.00%
Question: Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 16 December 2023?
NATO continues to support Ukraine's defense against Russia without direct involvement (Politico, Newsweek). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 31 NATO member states (NATO). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered "national military forces and/or law enforcement" (e.g., AP, BBC).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2023-06-16; closed: 2023-12-16
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will any territory in Crimea that was Russian-controlled before 24 February 2022 cease to be under "Assessed Russian Control" before 15 December 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?
Russia seized and annexed Crimea in 2014, but Ukraine may seek to regain the territory as war continues in the country (Newsweek, AP, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW, labeled "The Autonomous Republic of Crimea").
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2023-08-04; closed: 2023-12-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 August 2023 and 30 November 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Niger due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?
A military coup in the West African country of Niger in late July 2023 has raised fears of greater instability in the conflict-torn region (AP, NBC News, France 24). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (ACLED Dashboard). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the "EVENT DATE" range as appropriate, (2) for "EVENT TYPE, select all, (3) for "REGION," select only "Niger" under "Western Africa," (4) for "FATALITIES," leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for "ACTOR TYPE," select all, (6) for "INTERACTION," select all, and click "APPLY FILTERS." Click "EVENT COUNT" above the chart and change the selection to "FATALITIES." Data will be accessed for resolution on 15 December 2023. As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 47 total fatalities in April 2023 (22 attributed to "Violence against civilians," 14 attributed to "Battles," 8 attributed to "Explosions/Remote violence," 3 attributed to "Strategic developments," and none attributed to "Riots" or "Protests").
Tags: Society, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-08-04; closed: 2023-12-01
Options: Fewer than 100, Between 100 and 250, inclusive, More than 250 but fewer than 500, Between 500 and 1,000, inclusive, More than 1,000
Answer: More than 250 but fewer than 500
Question: What will be the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for the Emirate of Dubai in November 2023?
The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the Dubai Statistics Center (Dubai Statistics Center - Prices, see "Annual Percentage Change" reports). The figure in the PDF file will be used for resolution. In November 2022, annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index was 4.68% (Annual Percentage Change in Consumer Price Index 2022, see "General Index" row).
Tags: Business, Finance, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-02-02; closed: 2023-12-01
Options: Lower by more than 0.00%, Higher by between 0.00% and 2.00%, inclusive, Higher by more than 2.00% but less than 4.00%, Higher by between 4.00% and 6.00%, inclusive, Higher by more than 6.00% but less than 8.00%, 8.00% or higher
Answer: Higher by more than 2.00% but less than 4.00%
Question: Before 15 December 2023, will Tesla announce that Elon Musk has ceased or will cease to be the company's sole CEO?
Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, has been under pressure as his time has been divided among other ventures, including Twitter (CNN, CNBC). An announced leave of absence or addition of a co-CEO would count.
Tags: Business, Technology, Leader Entry/Exit
Question opened: 2022-12-23; closed: 2023-12-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will COP28 result in an agreement that includes explicit language committing to phase out all fossil fuels for energy production by a specific date?
The 28th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) is scheduled to be held from 30 November 2023 through 12 December 2023 in Dubai, UAE (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, COP28.com). Advocates have been pushing for a commitment to phase out all fossil fuels, but no such commitment has been adopted (Earth.org, Amnesty International, UN.org). The question will be suspended on 11 December 2023 and the outcome determined once all decisions from the summit have been published. The specific date is immaterial, but it must be a fixed point in the future, whether it be a specific day, a month, or a year. A fixed term (e.g., within 50 years of this meeting) would also count. The agreement must be adopted by "consensus" to count (Climalia).
Tags: Business, Society, Environment, Foreign Policy
Question opened: 2023-11-17; closed: 2023-12-12
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: At close of business on 13 December 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 1 November 2023?
The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its December meeting is scheduled for 12-13 December 2023.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-07-28; closed: 2023-12-13
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) invade Lebanon with tanks and/or armored vehicles before 13 December 2023?
As Israel is fighting Hamas and others in Gaza, there are fears that conflict could spread to include Lebanon, specifically Iran-backed Hezbollah (BBC, CNN, US News & World Report). For the purposes of this question, the IDF will be deemed to have invaded Lebanon if its forces, including ten or more tanks and/or armored vehicles, cross the "Blue Line" into Lebanon and remain in Lebanon for more than 36 hours (UN Interim Force in Lebanon, Britannica - Armoured Vehicle). Whether the IDF has invaded Lebanon will be determined using credible open-source media reporting. The question will close retroactively as of the beginning of the IDF invasion of Lebanon.
Tags: Society, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-10-13; closed: 2023-12-13
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2023?
Inflation in the US has been cooling in 2023 but remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% (US News & World Report, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for November 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items" as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in December 2023 (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Percentage Change from Year Ago"). For December 2022, the change was 6.44494%.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-08-18; closed: 2023-12-01
Options: Up by less than 1.600% or down, Up by between 1.600% and 2.200%, inclusive, Up by more than 2.200% but less than 2.800%, Up by between 2.800% and 3.400%, inclusive, Up by more than 3.400% but less than 4.000%, Up by between 4.000% and 4.600%, inclusive, Up by more than 4.600%
Answer: Up by between 2.800% and 3.400%, inclusive
Question: What will be the value of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for utility natural gas service in November 2023?
Natural gas prices around the world have begun to recede from the record highs reached after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with prices in the US collapsing   (CBS News, FRED - Global price of Natural gas, EU, US News & World Report, Yahoo Finance). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using seasonally adjusted Bureau of Labor Statistics data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), expected in December 2023 (FRED, BLS). As of the launch of this question, the value of the CPI for "utility (piped) gas service" in March 2023 was 241.144.
Tags: Business, Society, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-05-26; closed: 2023-12-01
Options: Less than 160.000, Between 160.000 and 180.000, inclusive, More than 180.000 but less than 200.000, Between 200.000 and 220.000, inclusive, More than 220.000 but less than 240.000, 240.000 or more
Answer: More than 220.000 but less than 240.000
Question: What will be the value of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for electricity in November 2023?
US electricity prices jumped as global natural gas supplies were heavily impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but they have begun to fall in early 2023 (CBS News, USA Today, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using seasonally adjusted Bureau of Labor Statistics data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), expected in December 2023 (FRED, BLS). As of the launch of this question, the value of the CPI for electricity in March 2023 was 267.897.
Tags: Business, Society, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-05-26; closed: 2023-12-01
Options: Less than 220.000, Between 220.000 and 235.000, inclusive, More than 235.000 but less than 250.000, Between 250.000 and 265.000, inclusive, More than 265.000 but less than 280.000, 280.000 or more
Answer: More than 265.000 but less than 280.000
Question: Which team will win the 2023 Major League Soccer (MLS) Cup final?
MLS is the top soccer (football) league in the US and Canada (MLS Soccer - About). The MLS Cup final is scheduled for 9 December 2023 (MLS Soccer).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-08-25; closed: 2023-12-09
Options: FC Cincinnati, Inter Miami CF, Los Angeles FC, New England Revolution, Philadelphia Union, St. Louis City SC, Seattle Sounders FC, Another team
Answer: Another team
Question: When will the United States announce the imposition of sanctions on any Israeli or Israelis for involvement in attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank?
US officials have stated that they are considering imposing sanctions against Israeli West Bank settlers associated with violence against Palestinians (Politico, The Hill, Axios). For the purposes of this question, any sanctions that would limit an Israeli citizen's ability to visit the US or engage in commerce with the US would count. The mere announcement of a framework outlining who may be eligible to be sanctioned would not count, and the date the sanctions would take effect is immaterial.
Tags: Society, US Politics, Security and Conflict, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-11-20; closed: 2023-12-05
Options: Before 12 December 2023, Between 12 December 2023 and 1 January 2024, Between 2 January 2024 and 22 January 2024, Not before 23 January 2024
Answer: Before 12 December 2023
Question: When will Italy give written notice to China that it will terminate its agreement for the Belt and Road Initiative?
Italy signed a memorandum of understanding with China on 23 March 2019 to join the latter's Belt and Road Initiative, which would be automatically extended through at least 2029 unless Italy gives written notice to China that it is terminating the agreement (Al Jazeera, Italian Government, US News & World Report).
Tags: Business, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-05-12; closed: 2023-12-03
Options: Before 1 July 2023, Between 1 July 2023 and 30 September 2023, Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, Not before 1 January 2024
Answer: Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023
Question: Will Twitter, Inc. file for bankruptcy in the US before 2 December 2023?
Twitter has seen the departure of senior executives, advertising pauses by clients, and other developments since Elon Musk took the company private in late October 2022, with Musk mentioning the possibility of bankruptcy for the firm (CNBC, US News & World Report, NPR, Investopedia).
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, Entertainment
Question opened: 2022-11-18; closed: 2023-12-02
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the value for the informal US dollar to Argentine peso exchange rate (aka "blue dollar" rate) on 30 November 2023?
The Argentine peso has hit historic lows against the US dollar in both official and informal exchange rates as inflation reached 100% and with political uncertainty surrounding elections scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2023 (BBC, AP, Buenos Aires Times). The question will be suspended on 29 November 2023 and the outcome determined using chart data for 30 November 2023 as reported by Blue Dollar (Blue Dollar, set "Zoom" to "1Y"). The Argentine presidential election is scheduled for 22 October 2023, with a runoff on 19 November 2023, if needed (teleSUR).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-05-19; closed: 2023-11-30
Options: Lower than 400, Between 400 and 500, inclusive, Higher than 500 but lower than 600, Between 600 and 700, inclusive, Higher than 700 but lower than 850, Between 850 and 1,000, inclusive, Higher than 1,000 but lower than 1,400, 1,400 or more
Answer: Between 850 and 1,000, inclusive
Question: What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 30 November 2023?
Mortgage rates have hovered around multi-decade highs in mid-2023, but many banks and financial institutions expect them to fall in the near term (Yahoo). The question will be suspended 29 November 2023 and the outcome determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). For the week ending 1 December 2022, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 6.49%.
Tags: Business, Finance, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-08-18; closed: 2023-11-30
Options: Lower than 6.00%, Between 6.00% and 6.30%, inclusive, Higher than 6.30% but lower than 6.60%, Between 6.60% and 6.90%, inclusive, Higher than 6.90% but lower than 7.20%, Between 7.20% and 7.50%, inclusive, More than 7.50%
Answer: Between 7.20% and 7.50%, inclusive