jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage from $7.25 an hour become law before 1 March 2023?
The US Senate rejected a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage proposal, but there are still pushes for a raise (The Hill, CNBC). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour (Cornell - 29 USC § 206, US Department of Labor). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial.
Tags: Business, Society, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-04-06; closed: 2023-03-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a new tweet on former President Donald Trump's Twitter account, @realdonaldtrump, before 26 February 2023?
Elon Musk announced that Trump's Twitter account was reactivated after a poll held on the site, but Trump has thus far said that he has no interest in returning to Twitter (CNBC, Twitter). Retweets would not count, and a tweet that is immediately deleted or removed would count so long as there is credible reporting that the tweet occurred. Claims that a tweet was the result of a hack would be immaterial.
Tags: Business, Technology, US Politics
Question opened: 2022-11-25; closed: 2023-02-26
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 24 February 2023, according to CoinMarketCap?
Troubles at the crypto exchange FTX are the latest hit to the cryptocurrency ecosystem (CNBC, CoinDesk, Decrypt). The outcome will be determined using the last value dated 24 February 2023 (PT) as reported by CoinMarketCap under "Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap" (CoinMarketCap, set "Zoom" to "7d").
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2022-11-11; closed: 2023-02-24
Options: Less than $200 billion, Between $200 billion and $600 billion, inclusive, More than $600 billion but less than $1.0 trillion, Between $1.0 trillion and $1.4 trillion, inclusive, More than $1.4 trillion but less than $1.8 trillion, Between $1.8 trillion and $2.2 trillion, inclusive, More than $2.2 trillion
Answer: Between $1.0 trillion and $1.4 trillion, inclusive
Question: How much coal will the US export in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)?
Amid a looming potential energy crisis in Europe, coal demand as begun rising (Oil Price, Metal Miner, S&P Global). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data for October, November, and December 2022 as reported in the EIA's Monthly Energy Review that first includes data for December 2022 (EIA). On the EIA page, click "+Coal" and download the "XLS" report for "6.1 Overview." The relevant data are in the column titled "Coal Exports (Thousand Short Tons)." In the fourth quarter of 2021, the US exported 21,650.736 short tons (7,259.097 in October 2021, 6,994.391 in November 2021, and 7,397.248 in December 2021). According to the July 2022 Monthly Energy Review, the US exported 21,763.369 short tons of coal in the fourth quarter of 2021 (7,516.323 in October 2021, 6,834.235 in November 2021, and 7,412.811 in December 2021).
Tags: Business, Environment, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-07-29; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Less than 20,000 tons, Between 20,000 tons and 22,000 tons, inclusive, More than 22,000 tons but less than 24,000 tons, Between 24,000 tons and 26,000 tons, inclusive, More than 26,000 tons
Answer: Between 20,000 tons and 22,000 tons, inclusive
Question: How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?
The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations (Smart Energy International, Reuters). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO) for all of 2022, via the graph "Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)" when the filter for "Charger type" is set to "Fast (>22kW)" and the filters at the top of the page are set to "European Union" and "2022".This question is the longer-term companion of question #1579. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
Tags: Business, Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2020-05-22; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Less than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive, More than 30,000 but less than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive, More than 40,000
Answer: More than 40,000
Question: Between 12 August 2022 and 18 February 2023, will former President Donald Trump be criminally charged with or indicted for a federal and/or state crime in the US?
Former President Trump is currently under investigation by various US jurisdictions (BBC, Bloomberg, Politico). Any criminal charge or indictment under seal would only count upon the unsealing of the charge or indictment during the question's open period (Cornell, see Definition (1), Legal Beagle). Contempt charges or citations imposed by a judge or judicial officer alone would not count (Cornell).
Tags: Business, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-08-12; closed: 2023-02-18
Options: Yes, a federal crime only, Yes, a state crime only, Yes, both a federal crime and a state crime, No
Answer: No
Question: When will North Korea next launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?
North Korea has launched a flurry of missile tests in 2022  (Economist, NPR, Al Jazeera). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. A submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) would not count.
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-12-09; closed: 2023-02-18
Options: Before 1 March 2023, Between 1 March 2023 and 31 May 2023, Between 1 June 2023 and 31 August 2023, Not before 1 September 2023
Answer: Before 1 March 2023
Question: What percentage of US retail sales will be made online in the fourth quarter of 2022?
The COVID-19 pandemic drove an increase in online shopping in the US, but whether increases will continue apace is an open question (Digital Commerce 360, Supermarket News). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted "Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales: Total and E-commerce" data when first released by the US Census Bureau for the fourth quarter of 2022, expected in February 2023 (Census.gov, see "Latest Quarterly E-Commerce Report"). For the fourth quarter of 2021, the Bureau reported Adjusted E-commerce as a Percent of Total as 14.5% (Census.gov - Q2 2021 Table, xls file download).
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2022-05-23; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Less than 13.5%, Between 13.5% and 14.5%, inclusive, More than 14.5% but less than 15.5%, Between 15.5% and 16.5%, inclusive, More than 16.5%
Answer: More than 14.5% but less than 15.5%
Question: What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 13 February 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?
Gas prices have fallen from record highs set in the summer of 2022, but supply issues and the question of further withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve continue to put pressure on prices (World Oil, NBC News). The question will be suspended on 12 February 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 13 February 2023 (AAA, see "Today's AAA National Average" graphic).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators, US Politics
Question opened: 2022-11-11; closed: 2023-02-13
Options: Less than $2.80, Between $2.80 and $3.20, inclusive, More than $3.20 but less than $3.60, Between $3.60 and $4.00, inclusive, More than $4.00 but less than $4.40, Between $4.40 and $4.80, inclusive, More than $4.80 but less than $5.20, Between $5.20 and $5.60, inclusive, More than $5.60
Answer: More than $3.20 but less than $3.60
Question: Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LVII?
Super Bowl LVII is scheduled for Sunday 12 February in Glendale, AZ (NFL).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-01-13; closed: 2023-02-13
Options: AFC Champion, NFC Champion, No Super Bowl will be played before 7 March 2023
Answer: AFC Champion
Question: When will the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariant XBB represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?
The Omicron subvariant "XBB" has made headlines as a so-called "nightmare" variant that has spread quickly in Asia and beyond (NBC Chicago, Yahoo News, CDC, STAT). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States by week here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. For the week ending 22 October 2022, other Omicron variants represented a combined 100.0% percent share of COVID lineages in the US (see "%Total"). The question would close as of the week for which the threshold is reached—and weeks including "Nowcast" estimates (i.e., columns with "NOWCAST" at the top) would count—or else the week ending 8 April 2023. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2022-10-28; closed: 2023-02-10
Options: The week ending 3 December 2022 or before, A week ending between 10 December 2022 and 14 January 2023, A week ending between 21 January 2023 and 25 February 2023, A week ending between 4 March 2023 and 8 April 2023, Not before 9 April 2023
Answer: A week ending between 21 January 2023 and 25 February 2023
Question: What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?
Amid a continued "Zero COVID" policy, China has seen major air travel disruptions and low passenger counts in 2022 (CGTN, FlightGlobal). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and outcome determined using data as first reported by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) (CAAC). For December 2021, the CAAC reported Passenger Throughput of 5590.3 (in units of 10,000), or 55,903,000 passengers (CAAC - Key Performance Indicators December 2021).
Tags: Business, Society, Health
Question opened: 2022-08-05; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Fewer than 20 million, Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive, More than 40 million but fewer than 60 million, Between 60 million and 80 million, inclusive, More than 80 million but fewer than 100 million, 100 million or more
Answer: Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive
Question: How many total international overnight guests will visit Dubai in 2022, according to the Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing?
The outcome will be determined using data from the Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing (Dubai Tourism). For example, 5.51 million total international overnight guests visited Dubai in 2020, while 16.73 million visited in 2019 (Dubai Tourism - 2020 Annual Report, Dubai Tourism - 2019 Annual Report).
Tags: Business, Society, Entertainment
Question opened: 2021-09-30; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Fewer than 10.0 million, Between 10.0 and 12.5 million, inclusive, More than 12.5 but fewer than 15.0 million, Between 15.0 and 17.5 million, inclusive, More than 17.5 million but fewer than 20.0 million, Between 20.0 million and 22.5 million, inclusive, More than 22.5 million
Answer: More than 12.5 but fewer than 15.0 million
Question: What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?
Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles (Reuters, NASDAQ, CSP, IEA). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by EV-volumes.com for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV & PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% (EV-volumes.com). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources.
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2020-04-02; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Less than 2.5%, Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%, Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive, More than 8.5%
Answer: More than 8.5%
Question: What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 1 February 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?
The question will be suspended on 31 January 2023 and the outcome determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 7 November 2022, Biden's approval rating was 41.4%. The data for 1 February 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 February 2023.
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2022-11-11; closed: 2023-02-01
Options: Lower than 38.0%, Between 38.0% and 42.0%, inclusive, Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%, Between 46.0% and 50.0%, inclusive, Higher than 50.0%
Answer: Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%
Question: What will be the FAO Food Price Index for January 2023?
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs (Axios, Slate). The question will be suspended on 31 January 2023 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for January 2023, expected in early February 2023 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of launch, the Food Price Index for January 2022 was 135.4. To download historical nominal data, click either "Excel" or "CSV" above the chart titled "FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms."
Tags: Society, Health, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-04-01; closed: 2023-02-01
Options: Less than 125.0, Between 125.0 and 135.0, inclusive, More than 135.0 but less than 145.0, Between 145.0 and 155.0, inclusive, More than 155.0 but less than 165.0, Between 165.0 and 175.0, inclusive, More than 175.0 but less than 185.0, Between 185.0 and 195.0, inclusive, More than 195.0
Answer: Between 125.0 and 135.0, inclusive
Question: At close of business on 1 February 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 14 December 2022?
The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its January/February meeting is scheduled for 31 January - 1 February 2023.
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-09-23; closed: 2023-02-01
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Higher
Question: What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?
Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (Clean Technica, Financial Times). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a 2015 Nature Climate Change study. The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh" (The Mack Institute).
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2020-04-02; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Less than $80 per kWh, Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive, More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh, Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive, More than $140 per kWh
Answer: Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive
Question: Before 1 February 2023, will there be an attack on a federal facility in the US resulting in at least ten fatalities?
After the FBI searched former President Trump's Mar-a-Lago home in August 2022, threats against federal law enforcement have increased (NPR, NBC News, CBS News). The fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count.
Tags: Society, US Politics, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-08-19; closed: 2023-02-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the office vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?
Multiple sources have reported increased office vacancy rates in Toronto, the Greater Toronto Area, and Canada overall as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and new work-from-home dynamics (RENX.ca, Canadian Real Estate, Bloomberg, Toronto Star). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome  determined using the vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area as first reported by the Toronto Office Market Report Q4 2022, expected in January 2023 (Colliers Canada). The rate for Q4 2019, before the pandemic, was 4.0%; the rate for Q3 2021, at question launch, was 8.5% (Colliers Canada - Toronto Q4 2019, Colliers Canada - Toronto Q3 2021).
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-10-22; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Lower than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 7.0%, inclusive, Higher than 7.0% but lower than 9.0%, Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive, Higher than 11.0%
Answer: Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive
Question: How many acres will be consumed by reported wildfires in the US in 2022?
Wildfires have already consumed over 5 million acres across the US as of mid-July 2022, with large fires still ongoing in Alaska and elsewhere (Axios, KTOO, Sacramento Bee). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) (NIFC - National Fire News, NIFC - Statistics, see Wildland Fire Summaries). In 2021, reported wildfires consumed 7,125,643 acres in the US (Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report 2021).
Tags: Environment
Question opened: 2022-07-22; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Fewer than 6.5 million, Between 6.5 million and 8.0 million, inclusive, More than 8.0 million but fewer than 9.5 million, Between 9.5 million and 11.0 million, inclusive, More than 11.0 million but fewer than 12.5 million, 12.5 million or more
Answer: Between 6.5 million and 8.0 million, inclusive
Question: Which NFL team will win the 2023 AFC Championship?
The 2023 AFC Championship is scheduled for Sunday 29 January 2023 (NFL, CBS Sports).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-01-13; closed: 2023-01-30
Options: Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, There will be no 2023 AFC Champion before 21 February 2023
Answer: Kansas City Chiefs
Question: Which NFL team will win the 2023 NFC Championship?
The 2023 NFC Championship is scheduled for Sunday 29 January 2023 (NFL, CBS Sports).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-01-13; closed: 2023-01-29
Options: Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, There will be no 2023 NFC Champion before 21 February 2023
Answer: Philadelphia Eagles
Question: Will the annual percent change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index be at or below 3.0% by December 2022?
The PCE Price Index, like the Consumer Price Index, is a measure of inflation used in the US (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA's) PCE Price Index data as first reported in its monthly Personal Income and Outlays reports (Reports) (BEA - Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index). Subsequent revisions to data for previously-reported months in 2022 would be immaterial. In the Report for June 2022, the percentage change from June 2021 to June 2022 was 6.8% (BEA - Personal Income and Outlays June 2022, see Table 11, Line 1).
Tags: Finance, Society, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-08-05; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2022?
Microchip shortages, broader supply-chain issues, and rising interest rates are all putting pressure on US auto sales (CNBC, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined by adding all monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once December 2022 data are first available (FRED).
Tags: Business, Technology, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-04-29; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Fewer than 13.0 million, Between 13.0 million and 13.6 million, inclusive, More than 13.6 million but fewer than 14.2 million, Between 14.2 million and 14.8 million, inclusive, More than 14.8 million but fewer than 15.4 million, Between 15.4 million and 16.0 million, inclusive, More than 16.0 million
Answer: Between 14.2 million and 14.8 million, inclusive
Question: Will the location of the administrative services building in Bakhmut, Ukraine, cease to be under Ukrainian control before 26 January 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
Ukrainian forces are facing heavy fire from Russian troops attempting to capture the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region (EuroNews, US News & World Report, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address of the building (Tsentr Nadannya Administratyvnykh Posluh Mista Bakhmut) is Myru St, 44, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500, to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. The location identified by the interactive map will be used for resolution. For the purposes of this question, "Claimed Russian Control" would not count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control, but "Assessed Russian Advance" would count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control.
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-11-11; closed: 2023-01-26
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?
The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q3 2021 totaled 232,102 (Tesla).
Tags: Business, Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2021-12-13; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive, More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000, Between 1,300,000 and 1,600,000, inclusive, More than 1,600,000 but fewer than 1,900,000, 1,900,000 or more
Answer: More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000