jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: What will be the US domestic box office gross for the movie Barbie between and including 21 July 2023 and 6 August 2023, according to Box Office Mojo?
Barbie is a live-action comedy adventure film based on the toy of the same name (IMDb). The question will be suspended on 6 August 2023 and the outcome determined using total non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for 21 July through and including 6 August 2023 (Box Office Mojo, see "Domestic Weekend"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 21 July 2023 (Collider).
Tags: Business, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-07-18; closed: 2023-07-26
Options: Less than $70 million, Between $70 million and $100 million, inclusive, More than $100 million but less than $130 million, Between $130 million and $160 million, inclusive, More than $160 million but less than $190 million, $190 million or more
Answer: $190 million or more
Question: At close of business on 26 July 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 14 June 2023?
The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 25-26 July 2023.
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-03-24; closed: 2023-07-26
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Higher
Question: Will the upper limit of the US federal funds target range reach or exceed 5.50% before 21 September 2023?
The Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates to combat inflation throughout 2022, which has raised fears of a potential recession in 2023 (USA Today, US News & World Report). The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which raised the upper range of the federal funds rate to 4.50% at its December 2022 meeting and released a new Summary of Economic Projections (Federal Reserve - FOMC Statement December 2022, Federal Reserve - Summary of Economic Projections December 2022). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Finance, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-01-06; closed: 2023-07-26
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the value of the US "M2" money supply as of 26 June 2023?
In April 2022, the US "M2" money supply metric contracted by the largest amount in decades amid the Federal Reserve's moves to being tightening monetary policy (CNBC, Investopedia, Federal Reserve Money Stock Measures - H.6 Release). The question will be suspended on 25 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED). As of 28 March 2022, the value of US M2 was $21,924.7 billion.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-06-03; closed: 2023-06-26
Options: Less than $19,250.0 billion, Between $19,250.0 billion and $20,000.0 billion, inclusive, More than $20,000.0 billion but less than $20,750.0 billion, Between $20,750.0 billion and $21,500.0 billion, inclusive, More than $21,500.0 billion
Answer: More than $20,000.0 billion but less than $20,750.0 billion
Question: Will the People's Party (PP, sometimes translated as "Popular Party") win more seats in the Congress of Deputies than any other party in the next Spanish general election?
After heavy losses for his party in local elections, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called for early parliamentary elections to be held on 23 July 2023 (AP, Politico, Politico - Spain Poll of Polls). The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), to which Sánchez belongs, won 120 seats in the Congress of Deputies in the November 2019 general election, with PP winning 88 and Vox winning 52 (Guardian). If two or more parties are on the party lists that includes PP and/or Vox, the seat count for that party list would count (European Parliament - 2019 Spanish Election Results, see "PSOE/PSC," a list that included both the PSOE and the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC)).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-06-02; closed: 2023-07-23
Options: Yes, and the combined seat total for PP and Vox will represent a majority of all seats, Yes, but the combined seat total for PP and Vox will not represent a majority of all seats, No
Answer: Yes, but the combined seat total for PP and Vox will not represent a majority of all seats
Question: How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from January 2023 through June 2023 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?
The flow of people illegally crossing the US border with Mexico remains a hot political issue, with President Biden making his first trip to the border in January 2023 (NPR, ABC News, Axios). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CBP for the months of January 2023 through June 2023 once data for June 2023 are first reported (CBP). Between January 2022 and June 2022, CBP reported a total of 1,228,213 encounters in the US southwest as of the launch of this question.
Tags: Society, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-01-13; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 900,000, inclusive, More than 900,000 but fewer than 1,100,000, Between 1,100,000 and 1,300,000, inclusive, More than 1,300,000 but fewer than 1,500,000, 1,500,000 or more
Answer: More than 900,000 but fewer than 1,100,000
Question: What will be the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) "Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)" for June 2023?
Youth unemployment in the PRC was a problem in 2022, with the unemployment rate for those between 16 and 24 years of age nearly hitting 20% in July 2022 (CNN, France 24). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (National Bureau of Statistics). To access the data, click "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate" under "Indicators," then click "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate" option immediately underneath. The relevant data may be found in the row titled "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)." Use the horizontal scroll bar to the right to scroll through the monthly data. In January 2022, the rate was 15.3%. Please note that your browser may not recognize the security certificate used by China's National Bureau of Statistics. Statistica also reports these data at the following link, but the data as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics will be used for resolution (Statistica).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-01-06; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Less than 14.0%, Between 14.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, More than 15.0% but less than 16.0%, Between 16.0% and 17.0%, inclusive, More than 17.0% but less than 18.0%, Between 18.0% and 19.0%, inclusive, More than 19.0% but less than 20.0%, 20.0% or more
Answer: 20.0% or more
Question: What will be the total number of housing starts in the US in the first half of 2023?
As interest rates have risen, US homebuilding has declined (US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (Census Bureau). From the Census Bureau page, download the XLS file for "Housing Units Started." In the file, find the "StartsUA" sheet. The total number of starts in the first half of 2022 (January through June) was 839.5 thousand, or 839,500. Please note that monthly figures are often reported as annualized rates, and this question is concerned with actual monthly figures.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Finance, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-01-06; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Fewer than 400,000, Between 400,000 and 550,000, inclusive, More than 550,000 but fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 850,000, inclusive, More than 850,000
Answer: Between 700,000 and 850,000, inclusive
Question: What percentage of workers in British Columbia (BC) will have worked from home between July 2021 and December 2022?
The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and outcome determined using data as provided by Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada). From April 2020 to June 2021, 27.8% of workers in BC worked from home (Statistics Canada - Working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic, April 2020 to June 2021, see Table 1). Statistics Canada has confirmed that they will provide a report including these same data for July 2021 through December 2022, which is expected in early 2023.
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-11-29; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Less than 20.0%, Between 20.0% and 25.0%, inclusive, More than 25.0% but less than 30.0%, Between 30.0% and 35.0%, inclusive, More than 35.0%
Answer: Between 20.0% and 25.0%, inclusive
Question: What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2023?
China has set a GDP growth target of "around 5%" for 2023 (CNBC, IMF). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in July 2023 (Trading Economics).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-04-07; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Higher by less than 3.0%, Higher by between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive, Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 5.0%, Higher by between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, Higher by more than 6.0%
Answer: Higher by more than 6.0%
Question: What will be the total US rail freight carload and intermodal unit traffic in May 2023?
Rail freight traffic has long been seen as a strong economic indicator (American Enterprise Institute). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2023 and the outcome determined using unadjusted Bureau of Transportation Statistics data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), expected in July 2023 (FRED - Carloads, FRED - Intermodal). Intermodal units include shipping containers and truck trailers moved on rail cars (Association of American Railroads). As of 3 March 2023, total rail freight traffic in May 2022 was 2,235,748 (1,025,945 carloads + 1,209,803 intermodal units).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-03-03; closed: 2023-06-01
Options: Fewer than 1.9 million, Between 1.9 million and 2.0 million, inclusive, More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.1 million, Between 2.1 million and 2.2 million, inclusive, More than 2.2 million but fewer than 2.3 million, 2.3 million or more
Answer: More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.1 million
Question: Before 30 September 2023, will the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approve a human birth control pill for sale over the counter (OTC)?
In July 2022, HRA Pharma, a French pharmaceutical company, submitted an application to the FDA for what would be the first OTC birth control pill in the US (NPR, Politico, FDA - Prescription-to-Nonprescription (Rx-to-OTC) Switches). Approval with limits (e.g., age restrictions) would count. Emergency contraceptives would not count (FDA - Birth Control). Approval of a pill for sale OTC without a prescription but "behind the counter" would count (Forbes, National Institutes of Health ).
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, Health, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-09-02; closed: 2023-07-13
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: As of 30 June 2023, how many birds in commercial and backyard flocks will have been affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI, or "bird flu") in 2023, according to the USDA?
The HPAI outbreak across the US that started in 2022 continues, and has already led to the deaths of tens of millions of commercial and "backyard" birds (Wall Street Journal, Texas Farm Bureau, Tennessee Dept. of Agriculture). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). To download the data, first click "Birds Affected" in the table titled "List of Detections by Day." Then click the "Choose a format to download" to the left of "Share" and "Full Screen" in the ribbon below that table and select "Data." In the additional window that pops up, click "Download" in the upper right to download the data. Figures with "Confirmed" dates between and including 1 January 2023 and 30 June 2023 will count. Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 12 July 2023. As of 23 January 2023, the total number of birds affected since 2022 was 58,162,044.
Tags: Business, Society, Health, Environment
Question opened: 2023-01-27; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Fewer than 2 million, Between 2 million and 6 million, inclusive, More than 6 million but fewer than 12 million, Between 12 million and 20 million, inclusive, More than 20 million but fewer than 30 million, 30 million or more
Answer: Fewer than 2 million
Question: What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2023?
Inflation in the US is expected to cool in 2023 versus 2022, with some discussing the potential for deflation (Morningstar, CBS News, CNBC, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for June 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items," expected in July 2023 (BLS). For June 2022, the change was 9.1%.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-11-04; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Down by more than 0.0%, Up by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive, Up by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%, Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive, Up by more than 4.5% but less than 6.0%, Up by 6.0% or more
Answer: Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive
Question: What will be the value of the US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for June 2023?
Used car prices soared as inflation his across the US economy, though they are off their historic highs in late 2022 (Economist, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (Manheim). As of 27 January 2023, the value for June 2022 was 239.9.
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-01-27; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Less than 165.0, Between 165.0 and 180.0, inclusive, More than 180.0 but less than 195.0, Between 195.0 and 210.0, inclusive, More than 210.0 but less than 225.0, More than 225.0
Answer: More than 210.0 but less than 225.0
Question: Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month before July 2023?
The COVID-19 pandemic hit the us labor market hard, and labor force participation has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels (US News & World Report, Brookings Institution, Fox Business). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-09-02; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the FAO Food Price Index value for June 2023?
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index has fallen from highs reached soon after Russia invaded Ukraine, but are expected to rise in 2023 (NASDAQ, US News & World Report, IMF). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for June 2023, expected in early July 2023 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of launch, the Food Price Index for December 2022 was 132.4. To download historical nominal data, click either "Excel" or "CSV" above the chart titled "FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms."
Tags: Society, Health, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-01-06; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Less than 118.0, Between 118.0 and 126.0, inclusive, More than 126.0 but less than 134.0, Between 134.0 and 142.0, inclusive, More than 142.0 but less than 150.0, 150.0 or more
Answer: Between 118.0 and 126.0, inclusive
Question: How many NATO member states will spend 2.0% or more of their GDP on defense in 2023?
With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the role and capabilities of NATO, including defense spending, are in the spotlight (Defense News, NATO - News). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data from the first NATO defense expenditure report that includes data for 2023 released in 2023, including estimates (NATO - Information on defence expenditures). In case of any ambiguity between the PDF and the spreadsheet downloads, figures per "Download the tables in Excel format" will be used. According to the June 2021 report, which included estimates for 2021 spending, ten countries spent 2.0% or more of their real GDP on defense (NATO - Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2021), see Download options at bottom of page).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-03-11; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: 10 or fewer, Between 11 and 13, Between 14 and 16, Between 17 and 19, 20 or more
Answer: Between 11 and 13
Question: What will be the annual percentage change in the National Consumer Price Index in Pakistan in June 2023?
Pakistan is facing inflation as the country recovers from massive flooding in 2022 and dwindling foreign reserves (Business Standard, Al Jazeera). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Trading Economics). In December 2022, the National Consumer Price Index rose 24.47% versus December 2021 (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics - CPI Monthly Review December 2022, see "General" row in Table 1).
Tags: Society, Economic Indicators, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-01-20; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Lower by more than 10.00%, Higher by between 10.00% and 20.00%, inclusive, Higher by more than 20.00% but less than 30.00%, Higher by between 30.00% and 40.00%, inclusive, Higher by more than 40.00% but less than 50.00%, 50.00% or higher
Answer: Higher by more than 20.00% but less than 30.00%
Question: What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 3 July 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?
Gas prices have fallen considerably from record highs set in the summer of 2022, but supply issues and other factors could put pressure on prices in 2023 (Cooperative, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 2 July 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 3 July 2023 (AAA, see "Today's AAA National Average" graphic).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-12-16; closed: 2023-07-03
Options: Less than $2.20, Between $2.20 and $2.60, inclusive, More than $2.60 but less than $3.00, Between $3.00 and $3.40, inclusive, More than $3.40 but less than $3.80, Between $3.80 and $4.20, inclusive, More than $4.20 but less than $4.60, Between $4.60 and $5.00, inclusive, More than $5.00
Answer: More than $3.40 but less than $3.80
Question: Will legislation raising the French minimum retirement age from 62 become law before 1 July 2023?
Large protests have broken out across France as President Emmanuel Macron pushes for parliament to raise the minimum retirement age from 62 (AP, Le Monde, Centre for European and International Social Security Liaisons). For the purposes of this question, legislation would be considered to become law upon its promulgation (i.e., signing) by the President of the Republic (e-Justice). Legislation with exceptions to a raised minimum retirement age (e.g., occupational exceptions or credit) would count, and the date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. Implementation by ordinance would not count (French Constitution, see Articles 38, 47, and 49).
Tags: Finance, Society, Economic Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-02-17; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the price of bitcoin on 30 June 2023?
The outcome will be determined using the last price dated 30 June 2023 (PT) as reported by CoinDesk (CoinDesk, set chart to "1M").This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2023-01-06; closed: 2023-06-30
Options: Less than $8,000.00, Between $8,000.00 and $12,000.00, inclusive, More than $12,000.00 but less than $16,000.00, Between $16,000.00 and $20,000.00, inclusive, More than $20,000.00 but less than $24,000.00, Between $24,000.00 and $28,000.00, inclusive, More than $28,000.00 but less than $32,000.00, $32,000.00 or more
Answer: More than $28,000.00 but less than $32,000.00
Question: Will Finland and/or Sweden become members of NATO before 1 July 2023?
On 18 May 2022, the countries of Finland and Sweden both submitted applications to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and approval from Hungary and Turkey were the final remaining obstacles to membership as of the end of 2022 (NATO, NPR, Euronews, NATO Parliamentary Assembly). The latest country to join NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020 (NATO).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-12-30; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Yes, Finland only, Yes, Sweden only, Yes, both Finland and Sweden, No
Answer: Yes, Finland only
Question: Will the US Department of Justice and/or the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) file either a civil complaint or a criminal charge against Live Nation Entertainment for antitrust violations before 1 July 2023?
Live Nation Entertainment, of which Ticketmaster is a part, is facing heavy scrutiny for its botched release of Taylor Swift concert tickets in late 2022 amid claims that it is a monopoly in violation of federal antitrust law (CNBC, CBS News, AP, Department of Justice - Antitrust Laws and You). Complaints or charges under seal would only count upon being unsealed, and complaints filed in court or as an administrative action would count.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, Economic Policy, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-02-03; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 July 2023, will the Federal Reserve announce a cut in the US federal funds rate?
As the Federal Reserve increases interest rates to combat inflation, there are concerns whether the US will be pushed into recession (JP Morgan, The Hill, US News & World Report). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market deteriorates, if inflation falls) would not count. The last time the Federal Reserve announced a cut to the US federal funds rate was 15 March 2020 (Federal Reserve).
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-07-01; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No