jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: How many people will have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US as of 30 June 2021, according to the CDC?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Fully Vaccinated” (CDC). The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-06-02; closed: 2021-06-30
Options: Fewer than 145,000,000, Between 145,000,000 and 155,000,000, inclusive, More than 155,000,000 but fewer than 165,000,000, Between 165,000,000 and 175,000,000, inclusive, More than 175,000,000 but fewer than 185,000,000, Between 185,000,000 and 195,000,000, inclusive, More than 195,000,000
Answer: More than 155,000,000 but fewer than 165,000,000
Question: How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 June 2021, according to the CDC?
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People with at least One Dose” (CDC). The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-06-02; closed: 2021-06-30
Options: Fewer than 175,000,000, Between 175,000,000 and 185,000,000, inclusive, More than 185,000,000 but fewer than 195,000,000, Between 195,000,000 and 205,000,000, inclusive, More than 205,000,000 but fewer than 215,000,000, Between 215,000,000 and 225,000,000, inclusive, More than 225,000,000 but fewer than 235,000,000, 235,000,000 or more
Answer: Between 175,000,000 and 185,000,000, inclusive
Question: How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?
As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response (CNN, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-03-12; closed: 2021-07-11
Options: Fewer than 14.5 million, Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive, More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million, Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive, More than 19.0 million
Answer: More than 19.0 million
Question: How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 3 July 2021?
The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week ending 3 July 2021 (HealthData.gov). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and US Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 28 June 2021 through 4 July 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-06-02; closed: 2021-07-03
Options: Fewer than 5,000, Between 5,000 and 10,000, inclusive, More than 10,000 but fewer than 15,000, Between 15,000 and 20,000, inclusive, More than 20,000 but fewer than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive, More than 30,000 but fewer than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive, More than 40,000
Answer: More than 10,000 but fewer than 15,000
Question: When will 300 million people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?
In spring 2021, India became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic (CNBC, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government (India Ministry of Health and Family Welfare). Click "Vaccination State Data," which opens a daily PDF report, "Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination." Navigate to the "India" row and the column titled "1st Dose." Data is reported in Indian notation; three hundred million (300,000,000) in international notation is equivalent to 30 crore (30,00,00,000).
Tags: Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-05-28; closed: 2021-07-11
Options: Before 1 August 2021, Between 1 August 2021 and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 October 2021, Not before 1 November 2021
Answer: Before 1 August 2021
Question: Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2020?
The UEFA European Championship has been held every four years since 1960, but was postponed in 2020 due to COVID-19 (UEFA, Sky Sports). The tournament is currently scheduled for 11 June 2021 to 11 July 2021 (UEFA).
Tags: Health, Sports
Question opened: 2021-06-04; closed: 2021-07-11
Options: Belgium, England, France, Germany, Portugal, Spain, Another country, The Euro 2020 will be postponed to after July 2021 or canceled
Answer: Another country
Question: Before 1 September 2021, who will be the first to fly successfully to space, Jeff Bezos or Richard Branson?
Virgin Galactic has announced that founder Richard Branson will try to beat Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos to space in July 2021 (CNN, Axios, NY Post). For the purposes of this question, "space" is an altitude of at least 50 miles (80.47 km) (BBC, Space News). To be successful, a flight must safely return to Earth.
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2021-07-02; closed: 2021-07-11
Options: Jeff Bezos, Richard Branson, Neither will fly successfully to space before 1 September 2021
Answer: Richard Branson
Question: Which NHL team will win the 2021 Stanley Cup Final?
The 2021 Stanley Cup Final is scheduled to conclude no later than 9 July 2021 (NBC Sports, NHL).
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2021-04-09; closed: 2021-07-08
Options: Carolina Hurricanes, Colorado Avalanche, Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vegas Golden Knights, Another team or no team will win the 2021 Stanley Cup Final
Answer: Tampa Bay Lightning
Question: Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?
Several Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to be the next mayor of New York City (NBC New York, Ballotpedia). The primaries, which will be held on 22 June 2021, will be the first to use ranked-choice voting (Wall Street Journal, FiveThirtyEight).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2021-03-19; closed: 2021-06-22
Options: Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Andrew Yang, Someone else
Answer: Eric Adams
Question: For how many weeks will Adam Grant's "Think Again" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?
Author Adam Grant's latest book, "Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know," was released on 2 February 2021 (Adamgrant.net). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list (NY Times).
Tags: Business, Society, Entertainment
Question opened: 2021-02-24; closed: 2021-06-30
Options: Fewer than 4, Between 4 and 8, Between 9 and 13, Between 14 and 18, More than 18
Answer: Between 14 and 18
Question: When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?
While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next (CNN, CDC). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.
Tags: Business, Health
Question opened: 2020-12-16; closed: 2021-07-03
Options: Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022
Answer: Between 1 July and 30 September 2021
Question: What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?
Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum (Cardano, Securities.io, NASDAQ).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk (Coindesk). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721.
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2021-02-19; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Less than $0.50, Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive, More than $1.00 but less than $2.50, Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive, More than $5.00
Answer: More than $1.00 but less than $2.50
Question: How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?
With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen (Economist, The Hill, FOXNews). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI (FBI.gov). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.
Tags: Business, Society, Sports, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-02-24; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Fewer than 8,000,000, Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive, More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000, Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive, More than 14,000,000
Answer: Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive
Question: Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?
Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown (Reuters, IPE, Economist, Economist Intelligence Unit, Financial Times). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 (Question #1418). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
Tags: Business, Finance, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2019-12-04; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?
Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown (Financial Times, AP, IPE, El Universal [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 (Question #1417). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
Tags: Business, Finance, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2019-12-04; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?
As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States (CNBC, TechCrunch, Starlink). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2020-08-14; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021
Answer: Not before 1 July 2021
Question: When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?
AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues (CNBC, Motley Fool).
Tags: Business, Entertainment
Question opened: 2021-01-06; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021
Answer: Not before 1 July 2021
Question: Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?
The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 (U.S. Trade Representative, CNBC, Reuters, FOX Business, Reuters).
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, Foreign Policy, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2020-12-18; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?
Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections (Economist, BBC). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 (Diplomat). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., BBC).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-12-04; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Yes, only for president, Yes, only for parliament, Yes, for both president and parliament, No
Answer: Yes, only for president
Question: Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?
After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS (Economist, Boeing, Reuters, Space.com).
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2021-03-12; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?
The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk (Coindesk).
Tags: Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2021-02-16; closed: 2021-06-30
Options: Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less, Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more, Neither will occur before 1 July 2021
Answer: Neither will occur before 1 July 2021
Question: Which cricket team will win the 2021 ICC World Test Championship Final?
The International Cricket Council's (ICC's) World Test Championship Final is scheduled for 18-22 June 2021 in Southampton, England (ICC). There is currently no systemic way of dealing with a draw besides awarding joint championship (CricTracker).
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2021-05-18; closed: 2021-06-18
Options: India, New Zealand, The match will end in a draw or tie, The 2021 Final will either be canceled or the first day will be postponed until after 18 July 2021
Answer: New Zealand
Question: In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?
Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances (Oyez, SCOTUSblog, Bloomberg Law, National Law Review). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed (Casetext). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
Tags: Business, US Policy
Question opened: 2020-12-11; closed: 2021-06-23
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Which will happen next regarding the price of Dogecoin?
The outcome will be determined using price data as reported in Coindesk's "1y" chart for Dogecoin (Coindesk).
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2021-05-14; closed: 2021-06-21
Options: Dogecoin will have a value of $1.00 or more, Dogecoin will have a value of $0.25 or less, Neither will occur before 1 August 2021
Answer: Dogecoin will have a value of $0.25 or less
Question: In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?
The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits (NCAA). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law (CBS Sports, Oyez). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit (SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 (Supremecourt.gov).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-02-24; closed: 2021-06-21
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Who win the next Iranian presidential election?
The 2021 Iranian presidential election is currently scheduled for 18 June 2021 (BBC, RFE/RL, Al Jazeera). If no candidate wins an absolute majority, a runoff between the two candidates receiving the most votes would take place the following Friday (Iran Constitution).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-05-28; closed: 2021-06-18
Options: Amirhossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi, Abdolnasser Hemmati, Saeed Jalili, Mohsen Mehralizadeh, Ebrahim Raisi, Mohsen Rezai, Alireza Zakani, None of these or there will be no election before 26 June 2021
Answer: Ebrahim Raisi
Question: Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?
The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 (Reuters, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Tags: Finance, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-12-22; closed: 2021-06-18
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?
The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic (Economist, GTBA). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner (GBTA). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey (GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021, see questions 20 and 21, GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021, see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).
Tags: Business, Health, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-02-24; closed: 2021-06-17
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?
After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 (Kaiser Family Foundation, Law.cornell.edu (see §(3)(A)), The Hill). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals (Politico, Casetext). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
Tags: Business, Health, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2020-09-04; closed: 2021-06-17
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?
In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents (Oyez). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech (Ballotpedia). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City (Third Circuit Court of Appeals, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
Tags: Society, US Politics
Question opened: 2020-09-25; closed: 2021-06-17
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?
The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2021-01-29; closed: 2021-06-16
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?
The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden (NPR, CNBC, New Statesman). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-01-22; closed: 2021-06-16
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will the average price of whole milk powder as of 15 June 2021 be higher than it was as of 18 May 2021?
Milk prices have been on the rise in 2021 (Rural News Group). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Global Dairy Trade, which posts new price data every first and third Tuesday of the month (Global Dairy Trade). As of 18 May 2021, the average price of whole milk powder was $4,123.
Tags: Business
Question opened: 2021-05-21; closed: 2021-06-14
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package before 1 September 2021?
As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed (Economist, European Council, European Parliament, European Commission). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements (Ernst & Young, European Commission, Politico.eu). The question would resolve upon the last Member State notifying the EU that it has approved the decision (European Council).
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-04-23; closed: 2021-05-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes