jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Will North Korea launch a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 November 2017?
North Korea's missile program is a cause of concern for mutiple actors in the region and beyond, particularly regarding the development of ICBM capabilities (38 North, BBC, WSJ, Popular Science, CNN, 38 North, NY Times).
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-04-18; closed: 2017-07-04
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the U.S. dollar on 30 June 2017?
Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2017-02-14; closed: 2017-07-01
Options: Less than $1.10, Between $1.10 and $1.20, inclusive, More than $1.20 but less than $1.30, Between $1.30 and $1.40, inclusive, More than $1.40
Answer: Between $1.30 and $1.40, inclusive
Question: Before 1 July 2017, will China fire a missile that lands within 50 nautical miles of Taiwan?
In the 1995-96 Taiwan Straits crises, China test-fired missiles in the Taiwan Strait (NY Times).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-03-07; closed: 2017-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before July 2017, will the New Development Bank issue any rupee-denominated bonds?
Question opened: 2016-08-02; closed: 2017-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 July 2017, will any other European Union (EU) member state set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU?
Question opened: 2016-07-12; closed: 2017-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Leopoldo Lopez be released from prison before 1 July 2017?
Leopoldo Lopez, a member of Venezuela's opposition, has been imprisoned since 2014 (Foreign Policy, UK Telegraph). The release of Lopez and other political prisoners is one of the issues being discussed in the Vatican-sponsored negotiations between President Maduro and the opposition (The Economist, United Press International, Latin America Herald Tribune).
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2017-01-24; closed: 2017-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will an early election or a recall referendum take place in Venezuela before 1 July 2017?
The political crisis in Venezuela has continued to escalate, with the opposition calling for early elections or a recall referendum (Time, Forbes , The World In 2017). President Maduro has stated that early elections are not on the table, but has agreed to participate in Vatican-sponsored negotiations with the opposition (BBC, Reuters). For more information on constitutional requirements for a recall referendum see Chapter IV, Section 2, Article 72 of Venezuela's constitution (Constitute Project).
Tags: Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2016-12-13; closed: 2017-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 July 2017, will Scotland set a date for another referendum on independence from the United Kingdom?
Question opened: 2016-07-12; closed: 2017-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 July 2017, will Russia allow Turkish citizens to travel to Russia without a visa?
Question opened: 2016-10-04; closed: 2017-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2017?
Question opened: 2016-07-05; closed: 2017-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will either Mir Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi stand trial or be released from house arrest before 1 June 2017?
Question opened: 2016-07-05; closed: 2017-05-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will India or Pakistan launch a ground offensive in Kashmir before 1 June 2017?
Unrest in Kashmir is the source of constant tension between India and Pakistan (International Business Times, The Hindu). Examples of ground offensives include India's Operation Vijay in the 1999 Kargil War (GlobalSecurity.org) and Turkey's Euphrates Shield in Syria (The Independent). Examples of military incidents that would not meet the threshold of a ground offensive include the September 2016 attacks (The Guardian, CNN), the October 2014 border clashes (BBC), and the 2001 attack on the Indian Kashmiri Assembly (BBC).
Tags: Foreign Policy
Question opened: 2017-02-21; closed: 2017-05-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar be on May 31, 2017?
Outcome will be determined by the LIBOR rate published by the Wall Street Journal here.
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2017-03-14; closed: 2017-05-31
Options: Less than .75%, Between .75% and 1.00%, inclusive, More than 1.00% but less than 1.25%, Between 1.25% and 1.50%, inclusive, More than 1.50%
Answer: More than 1.00% but less than 1.25%
Question: Will Verizon and Yahoo conclude their merger before 1 June 2017?
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether Facebook will add warning labels to news stories before July 2017 or on whether SpaceX launch the Falcon Heavy rocket into low earth orbit before 1 March 2017.
Tags: Business, In July 2016, Verizon Communications Inc. agreed to purchase and merge with Yahoo Inc. in a $4.8258 billion deal. The merger was supposed to be completed by March 2017, but has been delayed by the revelation of widespread hacking of 1 billion of Yahoo's users (Fortune, CBS, US News). Should a final merger deal involve Verizon offering equity as well as cash, the dollar value of the equity provided plus the cash provided will be used to calculate the final price of the deal (e.g. NY Times).
Question opened: 2017-01-17; closed: 2017-05-31
Options: Yes, for a price of less than $4.8258 billion, Yes, for a price of $4.8258 billion, Yes, for a price more than $4.8258 billion, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 July 2017, will Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte proclaim martial law?
Question opened: 2016-10-11; closed: 2017-05-31
Options: Yes, and Congress will NOT revoke the proclamation, Yes, but Congress WILL revoke the proclamation, No
Answer: Yes, and Congress will NOT revoke the proclamation
Question: Who will win Iran's May 2017 presidential election?
Will Uhuru Kenyatta win Kenya’s August 2017 presidential election?
Tags: Non-US Politics, Six candidates are in the running for Iran's May 2017 presidential election (BBC, Al-Monitor, The Economist). In the event that a run-off election is required, the end date of the question will be extended., Recommended Questions:, Will Moon Jae-in win South Korea's upcoming presidential election?
Question opened: 2017-05-02; closed: 2017-05-20
Options: Hassan Rohani, Ebrahim Raisi, Mohammad Baguer Ghalibaf, Mostafa Mirsalim, None of the above
Answer: Hassan Rohani
Question: Will farmland values in the Seventh Federal Reserve District be higher in the first quarter of 2017 than they were in first quarter of 2016?
Question opened: 2016-10-28; closed: 2017-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Moon Jae-in win South Korea's upcoming presidential election?
Will North Korea launch a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 November 2017?
Tags: Non-US Politics, South Koreans will go to the polls on 9 May 2017 to elect their new president (NY Times). Moon Jae-in ran for president in 2012, losing narrowly to Park Geun-hye. He is now the presumed front runner (NY Times, Reuters)., Recommended Questions:, Who will win Iran's May 2017 Presidential Election
Question opened: 2017-05-02; closed: 2017-05-09
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 1 October 2017, will Ban Ki-moon announce that he is running for president of South Korea?
Ban Ki-moon, the UN’s outgoing secretary-general, is rumored to be considering a run for the presidency in South Korea's December 2017 election (The Diplomat). Saenuri, the party of President Park Geun-hye, seems eager to groom him as their next leader (The World in 2017, Bloomberg).
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2016-11-22; closed: 2017-05-09
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the Philippines participate in the 2017 Balikatan military exercise?
The Balikatan exercise is the flagship exercise for the US-Philippine alliance and is normally held in the spring (United States Marine Corps, Update Philippines). President Duterte announced the October 2016 military exercise between US and Filipino military forces would be the last one (Reuters, The Philippine Star, CNN Philippines).
Tags: Foreign Policy
Question opened: 2016-12-06; closed: 2017-05-08
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?
Question opened: 2016-08-31; closed: 2017-05-07
Options: National Front, Socialist Party, Republicans, None of the above
Answer: None of the above
Question: Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA?
Throughout President-elect Trump's campaign, he labeled NAFTA the "worst trade deal in history" and has repeated a commitment to either negotiating better terms with Mexico and Canada or withdrawing (Forbes, Washington Post, The NAFTA Secretariat). Under Article 2205 of the agreement, a party can withdraw six months after providing notice (CNN,  The NAFTA Secretariat)
Tags: Economic Policy, Foreign Policy, US Politics
Question opened: 2016-12-27; closed: 2017-04-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will legislation removing the individual mandate to purchase health insurance be signed before 30 April 2017?
The individual mandate is a part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or Obamacare) that requires most Americans to have health insurance or pay a penalty. Republicans have tried to repeal the ACA many times since it was passed in 2010, but with control of Congress and the presidency they now have the opportunity to act on President-elect Trump's promise to repeal the individual mandate or ACA in its entirety (NPR,  CNBC,  CNN,  The Bureau of National Affairs). The passage of legislation which prohibits the use of federal funds to enforce the provisions of the individual mandate would resolve the question as "yes" (Legal Information Institute).
Tags: Business, Health, US Politics
Question opened: 2016-12-27; closed: 2017-04-29
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 17 March 2017 and 30 April 2017, will a U.S. Cabinet-level nomination fail or will a Cabinet-level member of the administration cease to hold their office?
Question opened: 2017-03-17; closed: 2017-04-29
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. lift sanctions imposed on Russia for cyber activity, the annexation of Crimea, or its actions in Eastern Ukraine?
Easing sanctions (e.g. allowing the import of goods from Crimea while retaining the investment ban on Crimea, removing specific individuals or entities from the cyber sanctions list) will not count. The United States imposed sanctions on Russia in March 2014 in response to the annexation of Crimea, in December 2014 in response to its intervention in Eastern Ukraine, (US Department of State), and in December 2016 in response to cyber activity involving the U.S. presidential election (US Treasury).
Tags: Foreign Policy, US Politics
Question opened: 2017-03-03; closed: 2017-04-29
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will Gallup report President Trump's net approval rating to be on 28 April 2017?
President-elect Trump's net approval rating has improved since his election in November (Gallup). This question will be resolved by subtracting President Trump's disapproval rating from his approval rating using the "Gallup Daily" Trump job approval rating. Gallup is tracking President Trump's job approval ratings here: (Gallup).
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2017-01-17; closed: 2017-04-28
Options: Below -15, Between -15 and +15, inclusive, Above +15
Answer: Between -15 and +15, inclusive
Question: Will a border adjustment tax be passed by the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives before 30 April 2017?
In a June 2016 tax reform blueprint, House Republicans proposed a “border adjustment tax,” a tax levied on imported goods (Forbes). Such a tax is supported by House Speaker Paul Ryan, among others , but has been criticized by President Trump and other leaders (CNBC, Bloomberg, Forbes). A border adjustment tax on specific countries or industries will count. The tax does not need to take effect or become law for a "yes” resolution.
Tags: Economic Policy, US Politics
Question opened: 2017-02-03; closed: 2017-04-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Ethiopia be under a state of emergency as of 1 May 2017?
In response to more than a year of protests, Ethiopia declared a six-month nationwide state of emergency on 8 October 2016 (Al Jazeera).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2016-12-06; closed: 2017-05-01
Options: Yes, nationwide, Yes, but only in some areas, No
Answer: Yes, nationwide
Question: Will the Palestinian Authority hold municipal elections before 1 May 2017?
Question opened: 2016-10-11; closed: 2017-04-30
Options: Yes, in the West Bank and Gaza, Yes, in the West Bank only, No
Answer: No
Question: Will members of Sudan's military or paramilitary attempt to remove Omar al-Bashir as President of Sudan before 1 May 2017?
Question opened: 2016-05-03; closed: 2017-04-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. give notice of intent to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?
The UNFCCC entered into force for the United States in 1994 (UNFCCC, UNFCCC). President-elect Donald Trump has cast uncertainty over the future of U.S. policy on climate change (The Guardian, The Orange County Register). Under Article 25 of the UNFCCC agreement, a party can withdraw from the Convention one year after giving notification (UNFCCC, UN Treaty Collection).
Tags: Environment, US Politics
Question opened: 2017-01-06; closed: 2017-04-29
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi on 28 April 2017?
This question will be scored using our ordered categorical scoring rule.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy, Foreign Policy, US Politics, President-elect Trump has accused the Chinese of devaluing the renminbi (CNBC), but recently its value has been increasing relative to the dollar (Washington Post, Washington Post). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by  Bloomberg. For historical trends, see Bloomberg.
Question opened: 2016-12-27; closed: 2017-04-28
Options: Less than 6.6, 6.6 to 7.2, inclusive, More than 7.2
Answer: 6.6 to 7.2, inclusive
Question: Will Turkey's upcoming constitutional referendum pass?
Turkey is scheduled to hold a contentious constitutional referendum in April 2017 (BBC, The Guardian, Election Guide, Daily Sabah).
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2017-04-04; closed: 2017-04-17
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 1 July 2017, will a date be set for early general elections in the United Kingdom?
General elections are not due again in the UK until 2020, but the recent court ruling requiring parliamentary approval for Brexit has prompted some calls for a snap election (Financial Times, The Telegraph, BBC, The World in 2017), and British law allows for out-of-cycle elections under certain conditions (www.parliament.uk).
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2016-11-22; closed: 2017-04-19
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: In 2016 will any of the G7 countries experience either inflation of 2% or more or GDP growth of 2.5% or more?
Question opened: 2016-04-19; closed: 2016-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will China’s GDP growth rate be for the first quarter of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016?
China met its 6.5-7% growth target in 2016. It will probably set itself a similar growth target for 2017 (The Economist). The question will be resolved according to economic and financial data from The Economist here. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2017 and will be closed when data are available in mid-April.
Tags: Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2017-01-10; closed: 2017-03-31
Options: Less than 6.0%, Between 6.0% and 6.5%, inclusive, More than 6.5% but less than 7.0%, 7.0% or more
Answer: More than 6.5% but less than 7.0%
Question: Will the merchandise value of Iran's imports and exports in 2016 exceed $140 billion?
Question opened: 2016-09-06; closed: 2017-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed before 30 April 2017?
The United States Supreme Court has had one vacant seat since the February 2016 death of Antonin Scalia. Appointing a new justice will be one of the first big tasks of the Trump administration (The Economist).
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2017-01-17; closed: 2017-04-07
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship?
The 2017 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship will be held on 3 April 2017 in Phoenix, AZ. Answer options will be replaced with names of the Final Four teams on 27 March 2017. This question will remain open until the championship game is over, but we will only score forecasts made through 11:59 p.m. Pacific time on 2 April 2017. To view an interactive bracket, visit NCAA
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2017-03-17; closed: 2017-04-03
Options: South Carolina, Oregon, North Carolina, Gonzaga
Answer: North Carolina
Question: Before 1 April 2017, will any NATO member other than Turkey announce the establishment of a no-fly zone over any part of Syria?
Question opened: 2016-11-01; closed: 2017-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the European Parliament vote before 1 April 2017 to establish a European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS)?
Question opened: 2016-08-16; closed: 2017-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the euro on 31 March 2017?
This question will be scored using our ordered categorical scoring rule.
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators, Britain's vote to leave the European Union has been followed by a depreciation in the value of the British pound as investors fear a "hard" Brexit (The World in 2017). Outcome will be determined according to data provided by Bloomberg.
Question opened: 2016-12-06; closed: 2017-03-31
Options: Less than 1.00 euro, Between 1.00 and 1.10 euros, inclusive, More than 1.10 but less than 1.20 euros, Between 1.20 and 1.30 euros, inclusive, More than 1.30 euros
Answer: More than 1.10 but less than 1.20 euros
Question: Which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship?
The 2017 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship will be held on 2 April 2017 in Dallas, TX. Answer options will be replaced with names of the Final Four teams on 28 March 2017. This question will remain open until the championship game is over, but we will only score forecasts made through 11:59 p.m. Pacific time on 1 April 2017. To view an interactive bracket, visit here.
Tags: Sports
Question opened: 2017-03-17; closed: 2017-04-02
Options: UConn, Stanford, Mississippi St., South Carolina
Answer: South Carolina
Question: When will the United Kingdom invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?
Question opened: 2016-07-12; closed: 2017-03-29
Options: Between 12 July and 31 December 2016, inclusive, Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive, Not before 1 July 2017
Answer: Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive
Question: Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Pakistan before 1 January 2017?
Question opened: 2016-05-25; closed: 2016-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Bangladesh before 1 January 2017?
Question opened: 2016-05-03; closed: 2016-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Zimbabwe before 1 January 2017?
Question opened: 2016-03-08; closed: 2016-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Turkey before 1 January 2017?
Question opened: 2016-05-25; closed: 2016-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Nigeria before 1 January 2017?
Question opened: 2016-03-08; closed: 2016-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?
Question opened: 2016-02-02; closed: 2016-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?
Question opened: 2016-02-02; closed: 2016-11-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017?
Question opened: 2016-03-08; closed: 2016-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many civilian fatalities will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2016?
Question opened: 2016-05-03; closed: 2016-12-31
Options: Fewer than 350, 350-750, inclusive, More than 750
Answer: 350-750, inclusive
Question: Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?
Question opened: 2016-02-02; closed: 2016-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Yemen before 1 January 2017?
Question opened: 2016-07-19; closed: 2016-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ukraine before 1 January 2017?
Question opened: 2016-08-23; closed: 2016-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Mali before 1 January 2017?
Question opened: 2016-07-19; closed: 2016-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Libya before 1 January 2017?
Question opened: 2016-08-23; closed: 2016-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a new episode of mass killing in India before 1 January 2017?
Question opened: 2016-08-09; closed: 2016-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Afghanistan before 1 January 2017?
Question opened: 2016-08-09; closed: 2016-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Leung Chun-ying win the March 2017 election for Chief Executive of Hong Kong?
Leung Chun-ying, the incumbent, is unpopular among democrats and "localists." The Hong Kong chief executive election will be held on 26 March 2017 (South China Morning Post). In the event that a run-off election is required, the end date of the question will be extended.
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2016-11-15; closed: 2017-03-26
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will the Federal Open Market Committee decide to do with respect to the federal funds rate at its scheduled March 2017 meeting?
The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Investopedia). The target for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee. The March meeting is scheduled for 14-15 March 2017.
Tags: Economic Policy
Question opened: 2017-02-16; closed: 2017-03-15
Options: Lower, Maintain, Raise
Answer: Raise