jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 25 April 2022?
The price of gasoline in the US hit all-time highs in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Car and Driver, CBS News). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for "Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices" (EIA, see table).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-03-18; closed: 2022-04-25
Options: Less than 3.300, Between 3.300 and 3.600, inclusive, More than 3.600 but less than 3.900, Between 3.900 and 4.200, inclusive, More than 4.200 but less than 4.500, Between 4.500 and 4.800, inclusive, More than 4.800
Answer: More than 4.200 but less than 4.500
Question: Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?
The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI (SIPRI, see the "Data for all countries" spreadsheet under the "Excel file" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% ("Share of GDP sheet," cell BU99).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-02-26; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?
France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 10 April 2022, with a possible runoff two weeks later (Economist, France24). Incumbent Emmanuel Macron is expected to formally announce his candidacy in 2022 (Politico.eu, Politico.eu - France Poll of Polls).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-10-15; closed: 2022-04-24
Options: National Rally (Rassemblement National), The Republic Forward (La République En Marche!), The Republicans (Les Républicains), Unbowed France (La France Insoumise), None of the above
Answer: The Republic Forward (La République En Marche!)
Question: What percentage of the vote will Marine Le Pen win in the 2022 French presidential election runoff?
In a repeat of the 2017 French presidential election, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will again face each other the runoff for the 2022 election, scheduled for 24 April 2022 (Politico.eu, French Ministry of the Interior).
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-04-11; closed: 2022-04-24
Options: Less than 35.0%, Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive, More than 40.0% but less than 45.0%, Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive, More than 50.0%
Answer: More than 40.0% but less than 45.0%
Question: Between 8 March 2022 and 22 April 2022, will the S&P 500 Index close at an all-time high?
The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC between 8 March 2022 and 22 April 2022 (CNBC).
Tags: Open
Question opened: 2022-03-15; closed: 2022-04-22
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 May 2022, will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 3.6 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?
The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC (PHAC). Total cases are displayed with the map graphic. For daily case data, click the ".CSV" button to the right of the map. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname." Data will be accessed for resolution no later than 5 May 2022.
Tags: Open
Question opened: 2022-03-15; closed: 2022-04-14
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many seats in the National Assembly will the Fidesz party's list win in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Led by Viktor Orban, a coalition of Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP) has held either a two-thirds supermajority or a majority of seats in the National Assembly since 2010 (Economist, Budapest Beacon, CNBC). Various opposition groups have united in an effort to unseat them (New Statesman, The Hill). The next parliamentary election is expected to be held in the spring of 2022.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-10-29; closed: 2022-04-03
Options: A two-thirds supermajority (133 seats or more), A majority but not a two-thirds supermajority (between 100 seats and 132 seats), Less than a majority (fewer than 100 seats)
Answer: A two-thirds supermajority (133 seats or more)
Question: Will Marine Le Pen place either first or second in the 2022 French presidential election?
The French presidential election is scheduled for 10 April 2022 (Euronews). Results of a runoff would be immaterial.
Tags: Open
Question opened: 2022-03-15; closed: 2022-04-10
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 4 January 2023, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?
Speculation abounds as to whether Justice Stephen Breyer may retire in 2022 (NPR, CNN). For the purposes of this question, an announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor would count as a seat being vacated, though an announced retirement effective as of a date after 3 January 2023 would not count (e.g., Supreme Court).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics
Question opened: 2022-01-14; closed: 2022-04-07
Options: Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023, Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023, No
Answer: Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023
Question: Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed by the Senate before 1 May 2022?
On 25 February 2022, President Joe Biden announced Ketanji Brown Jackson as his choice to replace the retiring Justice Stephen Breyer (The Hill).
Tags: Open
Question opened: 2022-03-15; closed: 2022-04-07
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Between 24 December 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for COVID-19 patients in the UK to be admitted to [a] hospital?
The rise of the Omicron variant in the UK has raised fears of a "tidal wave" of COVID-19 cases (CNN, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using 7-day average data as reported by the UK Health Security Agency (UK Health Security Agency, see "Patients admitted to hospital" set to "Daily"). Due to reporting lags, data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least seven calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 January 2022 wouldn't be evaluated until 8 January 2022). If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-12-23; closed: 2022-04-01
Options: Less than 1,500, Between 1,500 and 2,000, inclusive, More than 2,000 but less that 2,500, Between 2,500 and 3,000, inclusive, More than 3,000 but less than 3,500, Between 3,500 and 4,000, inclusive, More than 4,000
Answer: More than 2,000 but less that 2,500
Question: What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 31 March 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?
The outcome will be determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 7 September 2021, Biden's approval rating was 45.3%. The data for 31 March 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 April 2022.
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2021-09-10; closed: 2022-03-31
Options: Lower than 40.0%, Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive, Higher than 45.0% but lower than 50.0%, Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive, Higher than 55.0%
Answer: Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive
Question: Will Dubai's EXPO 2020 attract 25 million visits?
The six-month EXPO 2020, initially delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, is scheduled for 1 October 2021 through 31 March 2022 (EXPO2020, Yahoo, The National). Virtual visits would not count. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using final data when available.
Tags: Business, Society, Entertainment
Question opened: 2021-09-24; closed: 2022-04-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Sir Keir Starmer face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022?
Sir Keir was elected to replace Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of the UK's Labour Party in April 2020 and has faced dissention within his party's ranks (Sky News, Guardian, Sky News). The Labour Party requires that a challenger or challengers be nominated by 20% of all Labour Party MPs (Institute for Government, Labour Party Rule Book 2020, see Chapter 4, Clause II).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-08-20; closed: 2022-04-04
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds next invert?
When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia,  MarketWatch). The outcome will be determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED).
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-03-25; closed: 2022-04-01
Options: Before 23 April 2022, Between 23 April 2022 and 20 May 2022, Between 21 May 2022 and 17 June 2022, Not before 18 June 2022
Answer: Before 23 April 2022
Question: What will be the average Air Quality Index in Dubai in March 2022?
The outcome will be determined using data from AirNow (AirNow.gov). To access the resolution data, go to https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/, choose "Dubai" under "Select a City," and click on the "Historical" tab. Click on the file for "2022 PM2.5 YTD," when available. Add all valid data points for the column titled "AQI" (invalid entries are coded as -999) with a "3" under "Month" and divide the sum by the number of valid data points. Averages in March 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were, respectively, 126.05, 101.03, 94.58, and 100.49. This question will be resolved when complete data for the month of March 2022 are first available. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.
Tags: Health, Environment
Question opened: 2021-10-01; closed: 2022-03-31
Options: Less than 85.00, Between 85.00 and 95.00, inclusive, More than 95.00 but less than 105.00, Between 105.00 and 115.00, inclusive, More than 115.00
Answer: Between 105.00 and 115.00, inclusive
Question: Will Major League Baseball's (MLB's) Opening Day occur on 31 March 2022?
Baseball club owners locked players out of their facilities after their collective bargaining agreement with the MLB Players Association expired on 1 December 2021, though negotiations between the parties continue (ESPN, CBS Sports, MLBPA). As of 28 January 2022, the regular season was scheduled to begin on 31 March 2022 (MLB). Whether so-called replacement players are fielded is immaterial, and not all games must be played to count.
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2022-01-28; closed: 2022-03-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?
While the predominance of the Delta variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 hasn't greatly impacted air travel in the US, there are concerns that it or another variant could change that (USA Today, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA (TSA). The TSA last screened fewer than 1.3 million travelers each day for three consecutive days 15-17 March 2021.
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-07-23; closed: 2022-03-30
Options: Before 1 October 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021, Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022, Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022, Not before 1 April 2022
Answer: Not before 1 April 2022
Question: Before 1 January 2023, will North Korea launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?
While North Korea tested a number of weapons in the past, the country has not launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) since 2017 (Deutsche Welle, 38 North). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-01-14; closed: 2022-03-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: According to The Infinite Dial 2022, what percentage of the US population will have "listened to a podcast in the last month?"
The Infinite Dial is an annual survey of digital behavior conducted by Edison Research, typically conducted in January each year and released in March (Edison Research). According to The Infinite Dial 2021, 41% of the U.S. population age 12+ "listened to a podcast in the last month" (The Infinite Dial 2021, see page 56). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined once The Infinite Dial 2022 is released, typically in March.
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, Entertainment
Question opened: 2021-05-07; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Less than 42%, Between 42% and 44%, inclusive, More than 44% but less than 48%, 48% or more
Answer: Less than 42%
Question: Will the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury reach or exceed 2.25% before 1 July 2022?
Treasury bond yields are tracked for many purposes (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). As of 8 December 2021, the yield was 1.52%.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2021-12-10; closed: 2022-03-23
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Between 10 March 2022 and 29 April 2022, will the average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US be higher than 4.15%?
The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED).
Tags: Open
Question opened: 2022-03-15; closed: 2022-03-17
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?
Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past (Reuters, Shine.cn, CNBC, Inside EVs). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million (Caam.org [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics, Caam.org.cn [in Chinese], Caam.org.cn [in English], China Daily).This question is the longer-term companion of question #1697. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
Tags: Business, Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2020-07-10; closed: 2021-07-01
Options: Fewer than 2.2 million, Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive, More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million, Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive, More than 4.0 million
Answer: More than 4.0 million
Question: At close of business on 16 March 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 26 January 2022?
The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 15-16 March 2022.
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-11-05; closed: 2022-03-16
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Higher
Question: Between 27 February 2022 and 27 August 2022, will Russia be restricted or banned from access to the SWIFT banking system?
Amid various sanctions being imposed against Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, countries are considering whether to block Russian access to SWIFT (BBC, CBS News, Financial Times). A SWIFT ban on one or more Russian institutions would count. For more information on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication see https://www.swift.com/about_swift/index, https://www.swift.com/about-us/legal/compliance-0/swift-and-sanctions.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Policy, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-02-26; closed: 2022-03-14
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in South Korea?
South Korea is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 9 March 2022  (US News, Korea Herald). As of launch, Lee Jae-myung was the Democratic Party of Korea nominee, while Yoon Seok-youl was the People Power Party nominee (Bloomberg).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-12-03; closed: 2022-03-09
Options: Democratic Party of Korea, People Power Party, Another candidate
Answer: People Power Party
Question: When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next be 50,000 or lower?
The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the CDC (CDC). The red line is the 7-day moving average of cases, which last which was last under 50,000 on 22 July 2021. Due to reporting lags, data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least five calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 January 2022 wouldn't be evaluated until 6 January 2022), and data will be accessed for resolution no later than 5 August 2022. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-12-30; closed: 2022-03-03
Options: Before 1 February 2022, Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022, Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022, Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022, Not before 1 August 2022
Answer: Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022
Question: In United States v. Tsarnaev, will the Supreme Court reinstate the death sentence imposed against Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev?
In 2015, Tsarnaev was sentenced to death for his role in the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing and its aftermath (ABC News). The First Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the sentence, finding that the trial court failed to pay sufficient attention to potential jury bias (Casetext, CNN, American Bar Association). The government appealed, and the Supreme Court agreed in March 2021 to hear the case (Oyez, BBC). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
Tags: Society, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-09-10; closed: 2022-03-04
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will the price of steel plate in the US be higher as of 28 February 2022 than it was as of 24 January 2022, according to Steel Benchmarker?
Steel prices have seen large gains as inflation grips the US economy (NPR). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by SteelBenchmarker (SteelBenchmarker, see USA FOB mill, "Dollars per Metric Tonne," page 10 as of launch). As of 24 January 2022, the price for "Plate" was 2,015.
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-02-11; closed: 2022-02-28
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Who will President Biden announce as his choice to replace Justice Breyer on the US Supreme Court?
With Justice Breyer's retirement announcement, President Biden has begun a search to find his replacement (Politico, CBS News, Daily Mail, US Supreme Court).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics
Question opened: 2022-02-11; closed: 2022-02-25
Options: J. Michelle Childs, Anita Earls, Ketanji Brown Jackson, Candace Jackson-Akiwumi, Leondra Kruger, Melissa Murray, Wilhelmina Wright, Someone else, Biden will not announce a choice before 1 July 2022
Answer: Ketanji Brown Jackson
Question: Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before 15 September 2022?
Reports in the fall of 2021 indicated a build-up of Russian forces near the border of Ukraine amid increased tensions with the West (Politico, REF/RL). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-11-05; closed: 2022-02-24
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Between 30 December 2021 and 31 May 2022, will NATO and/or a NATO member state accuse Russian national military forces of invading Ukraine?
Tensions remain high between Russia and Ukraine, which includes a major military buildup near the border of Ukraine that concerns NATO and others (CNN, Al Jazeera, BBC). For the purposes of this question, "invading Ukraine" would mean Russia sending ground national military forces into Ukraine without consent from the Ukrainian government in Kyiv. Accusations regarding actions in Crimea would be immaterial.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-12-30; closed: 2022-02-24
Options: Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only, Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only, Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory, No
Answer: Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory
Question: Will Russia officially recognize the Donetsk People's Republic and/or the Luhansk People's Republic in Ukraine as independent states before 1 September 2022?
On 15 February 2022, the Russian Duma, or lower house of parliament, voted to ask President Putin to recognize two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent (Russian Duma, Deutsche Welle, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). The Duma passed a similar resolution regarding South Ossetia and Abkhazia before then-President Medvedev recognized both of those regions in Georgia as independent states (NPR, NY Times).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-02-18; closed: 2022-02-22
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes