jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) exceed 100,000 in the UK?
The discovery of the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) led to new travel restrictions imposed by the UK, though there are already reports of cases caused by Omicron in the country (Guardian, BBC, UK Health Security Agency - Technical briefing). The outcome will be determined by total confirmed and probable case data from UK Health Security Agency, published weekly here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers. For example, as of 24 November 2021, there were 1,370,519 confirmed and probable cases of the Delta variant (Variants: distribution of case data - 26 November 2021). The question would close, if not before, upon the release of data up to 23 March 2022, which is expected on 25 March 2022.
Tags: Technology, Society, Health
Question opened: 2021-12-03; closed: 2021-12-23
Options: Before 30 December 2021, Between 30 December 2021 and 26 January 2022, Between 27 January 2022 and 23 February 2022, Between 24 February 2022 and 23 March 2022, Not before 24 March 2022
Answer: Before 30 December 2021
Question: Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?
Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 (CNBC, SpaceNews). For the purposes of this question, a "space tourist flight" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude (BBC, SpaceNews).
Tags: Business, Technology, Entertainment
Question opened: 2021-02-05; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, only SpaceX, Yes, only Virgin Galactic, Yes, both, No
Answer: Yes, only SpaceX
Question: Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?
The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 (WHO, see 'Deaths - cumulative total', European Union). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.
Tags: Technology, Health
Question opened: 2021-01-29; closed: 2021-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?
While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case (European Parliament - Briefing, European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI), CEPS, South China Morning Post, Core.ac.uk). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy, Foreign Policy
Question opened: 2020-12-18; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022, Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?
ASML is a Dutch company which leads in the development and manufacturing of UV lithography systems (ASML.com). It currently controls the supply of Extreme Ultraviolet lithography systems, used in the manufacturing of cutting edge computer processor chips (Medium, ASML.com, Laser Focus World). ASML is required to obtain a license from the Netherlands to export these systems to China, which has become an issue of geopolitical contention (Asia Times, B1ts & Ch1ps). To learn more about the export licensing process in the Netherlands, please see: https://www.government.nl/topics/export-controls-of-strategic-goods/export-control-policy-for-strategic-goods, https://www.government.nl/topics/export-controls-of-strategic-goods/question-and-answer/how-can-i-obtain-an-export-licence-for-strategic-goods-or-dual-use-goods. A subsidiary of ASML obtaining a relevant export license would count.
Tags: Business, Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-04-16; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?
As diplomatic tensions between the EU and the People's Republic of China (PRC) have risen, there is a push within EU institutions to begin negotiations on a bilateral investment agreement with Taiwan (Politico.eu, European Parliament). While the EC conducts trade negotiations, it must first receive authorization from the Council (EC, European Parliament - Question to Commission, European Parliament - Commission Response). In 2013, the Commission made its proposal to the Council to open negotiations with the PRC on what would become the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, for which an agreement in principle was reached in December 2020 (EC, EC).
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-07-09; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?
The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones (Rotten Tomatoes). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past (NY Times, Express, Entertainment Weekly).
Tags: Business, Entertainment
Question opened: 2020-12-11; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?
Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service (CNBC, TechCrunch, CGTN). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2020-12-18; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the EU establish a moratorium or ban on the use of facial recognition systems (FRS) in public spaces by public authorities, in premises meant for education and healthcare, and/or by law enforcement in semi-public spaces before 1 January 2022?
In January 2021, the European Parliament invited the European Commission to "consider a moratorium on the use of FRS in public spaces by public authorities," among other things (European Parliament, see #56, ZD Net). Whether a moratorium or ban is established through legislation and/or regulation is immaterial, as are when it would take effect and how long it would last. A moratorium or ban with specific exemptions would count.
Tags: Technology, Society, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-04-09; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would limit or prohibit US federal funds from being used to purchase face recognition technology?
Advocates are pushing for limits on the use of face recognition technology for various reasons, from privacy to claims of racial bias (Reuters, ACLU, National Law Review). The date an executive order or federal legislation would take effect is immaterial. A prohibition with specific exemptions would count.
Tags: Technology, Society, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-04-09; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many COVID-19 vaccines will be authorized for emergency use or approved by the US FDA as of 31 December 2021?
The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines continues (FDA - COVID-19 Vaccines, FDA - Emergency Use Authorization).
Tags: Technology, Health
Question opened: 2021-05-07; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: 2 or fewer, 3, 4, 5, 6 or more
Answer: 3
Question: Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?
On 22 March 2021, the Council imposed restrictive measures against four Chinese officials and one Chinese entity for human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the first such sanctions since the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989 (BBC, Reuters, EUR-Lex, European Commission). The imposition of  restrictive measures against additional Chinese entities and Chinese individuals  under the existing restrictive measures regulation would count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-04-30; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: 0, 1, 2, 3 or more
Answer: 0
Question: Before 1 January 2022, will the US Intelligence Community publicly state that a laboratory accident is a more probable scenario for the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic than it having emerged naturally through contact with infected animals?
Debate on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic has regained salience (BBC, Science Magazine, Nature, BBC). On 27 May 2021, the ODNI issued a press release stating that the U.S. Intelligence Community had “coalesced around two likely scenarios: either it emerged naturally from human contact with infected animals or it was a laboratory accident. While two elements of the IC lean toward the former scenario and one leans more toward the latter -- each with low or moderate confidence -- the majority of elements within the IC do not believe there is sufficient information to assess one to be more likely than the other” (Office of the Director of National Intelligence). President Biden has asked for further reporting on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic (Whitehouse.gov, NY Times, BBC). For further information on US intelligence community terminology on probabilities and confidence, see Intelligence Community Directive 203 (Federation of American Scientists).
Tags: Health, Foreign Policy, US Politics
Question opened: 2021-06-11; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?
Protests in Hong Kong that began in June 2019 have evolved into broader anti-government protests that are widening rifts between Hong Kong and China (Reuters, UPI, BBC, Council on Foreign Relations). The confrontation must take place in Hong Kong to count.
Tags: Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-04-23; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?
China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party (BBC, Gov.cn, Brookings). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country (BBC, Tribune India).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-02-26; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: 0, 1, 2 or more
Answer: 0
Question: Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?
Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history (Montreal Gazette, Dept. of State, History.com). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population (Economist, Daily Sabah, Politico, Olympic.org).
Tags: Society, Sports, US Policy
Question opened: 2020-08-28; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?
The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons (Federation of American Scientists, ScienceMag.org, NY Times). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 (Defense News). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point (Defense News).
Tags: Technology, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2020-10-16; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more
Answer: 0
Question: Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?
While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed (CNBC, Canadian Press, Coindesk, Investopedia).
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-02-16; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high (AP, Bloomberg, BBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-01-21; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?
Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country (UN, Radio Canada International, In Depth News). For general information on how famines are declared, see: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, NPR.
Tags: Health, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-01-22; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?
Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 (Boom Supersonic, BoomSupersonic.com, Flight Global). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2020-10-16; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the closing yield for the 30 year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?
The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear (CNBC, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC).
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2020-12-31; closed: 2021-12-31
Options: Less than 1.500, Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive, More than 2.000 but less than 2.500, Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive, More than 3.000
Answer: Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive
Question: Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?
The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 (CNBC, Diem, Securities.io, Investopedia).
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2020-12-22; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?
Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them (NPR, JPost). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., NY Times, CNN).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-02-05; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?
In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach (Yahoo News, Reuters, Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a "Yes" resolution.
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-12-16; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association be ratified before 1 January 2022?
Baseball club owners and the players union have begun negotiations for a new CBA (ESPN, CBS Sports). The current CBA is due to expire on 1 December 2021 (Bleacher Nation, MLBPA).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2021-05-07; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?
Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration (Independent, Reuters, VOA News, BBC). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-03-05; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, only detonate a nuclear device, Yes, only launch an ICBM, Yes, both, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?
In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism (USA Today, DHS.gov).  For the purposes of this question, an "act of domestic terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2021-02-10; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will legal restrictions on the number of people who can meet indoors be imposed in England before 1 January 2022?
The UK government lifted indoor occupancy limits and other COVID-19 restrictions on 19 July 2021, dubbed by many as "Freedom Day" (Sky News, Gov.uk). However, seasonalities and the Delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 and others continue to raise concerns that another round of restrictions may come (Bustle, GoodtoKnow). Restrictions indoors at home or in public places would not need to cover the whole of England to count, but restrictions specific to hospitals and medical care facilities would not count. The question would close upon restrictions taking effect.
Tags: Society, Health, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-08-20; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?
On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company (CNBC, NPR). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg (Bloomberg - APPL, see "MARKET CAP"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., Bloomberg - ARAMCO, Bloomberg - SAR).
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2020-12-31; closed: 2021-12-31
Options: Yes, the most valuable in the world, No, but the most valuable in the United States, No
Answer: Yes, the most valuable in the world
Question: Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher than $70.00 per barrel on 30 December 2021?
The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Tags: Business
Question opened: 2021-06-18; closed: 2021-12-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 1 January 2022, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany?
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline could begin delivering natural gas from Russia to Germany later this year despite opposition from multiple groups (BBC, CNN, Bloomberg, Nord-stream2.com). Testing alone would not count. Delivery through either string of pipe would count.
Tags: Business, Foreign Policy, US Politics, Non-US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2021-08-06; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?
Tensions continue to flare between Egypt and Ethiopia, particularly in relation to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute (Middle East Eye, Egypt Independent, Africa Report). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-07-23; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?
The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention (Guardian, BBC). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its "Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 (Global Fire Emissions Database).
Tags: Environment
Question opened: 2020-11-13; closed: 2021-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?
As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) (Medium, CNBC, Vox, Investopedia). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
Tags: Business, Technology, US Politics
Question opened: 2020-10-30; closed: 2022-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will Chinese ride-hailing company DiDi's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?
Soon after its IPO in the US, DiDi Global Inc. faced a barrage of regulatory scrutiny from Chinese authorities (CNBC, Motley Fool). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure as reported by CNBC (CNBC).
Tags: Business, Technology, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2021-07-23; closed: 2021-12-31
Options: Less than $25 billion, Between $25 billion and $40 billion, inclusive, More than $40 billion but less than $55 billion, Between $55 billion and $70 billion, inclusive, More than $70 billion, DiDi will cease to be listed on a US stock exchange before 1 January 2022
Answer: Less than $25 billion