jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: What will be the price of bitcoin on 31 December 2023?
From January 2023 to mid-August 2023, bitcoin has nearly doubled in value in US dollar terms amid continued pushes for a spot bitcoin ETF in the US (Cointelegraph). The question will be suspended on 30 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Coinbase price data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). On 17 August 2023, the price of a bitcoin was $26,600.98.
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2023-08-18; closed: 2023-12-31
Options: Less than $18,500, Between $18,500 and $21,000, inclusive, More than $21,000 but less than $23,500, Between $23,500 and $26,000, inclusive, More than $26,000 but less than $28,500, Between $28,500 and $31,000, inclusive, More than $31,000 but less than $33,500, Between $33,500 and $36,000, inclusive, More than $36,000
Answer: More than $36,000
Question: As of 1 January 2024, how many US states will have banned by law natural gas appliances in all new residential construction?
In May 2023, the state of New York became the first state to ban "fossil-fuel equipment" in some new buildings starting in 2026 and others in 2029 (USA Today, CNN, NY State Assembly - A03006C, see "Part RR"). The date the bans would take effect would be immaterial, and bans with limited exceptions (e.g., for buildings without access to an electrical grid) would count. Bans imposed by political subdivisions of states (e.g., cities, counties) would be immaterial (Building Decarbonization Coalition). A ban would have to include single and multifamily occupancy buildings, and if a state imposed then repealed a ban as of 1 January 2024, the repealed ban would not count (Tech 24 Construction).
Tags: Business, Society, Health, Environment, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-05-16; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more
Answer: 1
Question: Will UN-sanctioned national elections be held in Libya in 2023?
Abdoulaye Bathily, head of the UN Support Mission in Libya, has said that elections in the war-torn country are possible in 2023, though obstacles remain (UN Security Council, Libya Herald, US Institute of Peace). The holding of either presidential or parliamentary elections would count. The question would close early upon an official announcement from the UN that elections will not take place in 2023.
Tags: Society, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-04-28; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen or a country in the Horn of Africa before 1 January 2024?
Drought, conflict, and other factors have left millions in Yemen and the Horn of Africa facing potential famine (NPR, PBS, BBC). For the purposes of this question, the countries in the Horn of Africa are Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda (Britannica). For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.
Tags: Society, Health, Environment, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2023-04-21; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the Supreme Court of Israel outright strike down the 2023 amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary regarding the "reasonableness" standard?
On 24 July 2023, Israel's parliament, the Knesset, passed an amendment to a Basic Law, a quasi-constitutional provision of Israeli law, that would prohibit the Supreme Court (also known as the High Court of Israel when exercising original jurisdiction) from blocking decisions made by the government regarding appointments and administrative matters on the basis of "reasonableness" (CNN, Israel Policy Forum - Judicial Legislation Tracker, American Jewish Committee, Brookings Institution, Knesset - Basic Law: The Judiciary). The hearing on eight challenges to the amendment to the Basic Law is scheduled for 12 September 2023 (Supreme Court of Israel [in Hebrew], ABC News). The question will close upon the handing down of the court's decision on the case or other final action (e.g., dismissal), and a decision on any of the petitions before the court that outright strikes down the amendment would count. If the court does not reach a decision on the challenges to the amendment before 1 December 2023, the suspend date will be extended.
Tags: Society, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-08-18; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will the full US House of Representatives vote on impeaching President Joe Biden before 1 January 2024?
Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy announced 12 September 2023 that he was directing committees to open a formal impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden (Twitter, Axios). Only votes by the full House of Representatives will count (Congressional Research Service). The question will not close early upon a full House vote to not impeach President Biden.
Tags: Society, Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics
Question opened: 2023-09-15; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, and the full House will vote in the affirmative to impeach President Biden, Yes, but the full House will not vote in the affirmative to impeach President Biden, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) authorize SpaceX to launch a third flight of Starship Super Heavy before 1 January 2024?
After a more successful, though not completely successful, second test of SpaceX's Starship on 18 November 2023, Elon Musk has said that they could be ready for a third test within three to four weeks (Space.com, Isp.page, Payload, Space.com). License authorization for the second flight was given on 15 November 2023 (X [fka Twitter], US News & World Report).
Tags: Business, Technology, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-11-24; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the US National Mediation Board (NMB) report that a "cooling off" period has begun for an airline pilot union and a major airline engaged in contract negotiations before 1 January 2024?
While American Airlines reached a tentative deal with its pilot union in May 2023, negotiations were still ongoing for United and Southwest (CNBC). Under the procedures laid out in the Railway Labor Act, which also governs airlines, the parties to a labor negotiation enter a "cooling-off" period once the National Mediation Board determines that mediation has failed to produce an agreement and either or both parties reject binding arbitration (Freight Waves, NMB - Collective Bargaining Flow Chart, NMB - Press Release re Railroad Workers Negotiations). For the purposes of this question, a "major airline" is Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, United Airlines, or Southwest Airlines.
Tags: Business, Society, US Politics
Question opened: 2023-05-26; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in continental Europe either directed or executed by one or more Saheli jihadist groups resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 January 2024?
For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by EU law (European Council, see "EU definition of terrorism"). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count. Whether a CCTA is either directed or executed by one or more Saheli jihadist groups will be determined using credible, open-source reporting (UN - List of Sahel Countries, CSIS). "Continental Europe" includes the territory on the continent of any country that is part of the European single market (Gov.uk - Countries in the EU and EEA, does not include the UK).
Tags: Society, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2023-04-14; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2024, will American journalist Evan Gershkovich leave Russia?
Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was arrested in Russia on 29 March 2023 for espionage, a claim he denies (ABC News). US officials have said that there have been discussions with Russia on a possible prisoner exchange (The Hill).
Tags: Foreign Policy, US Politics, Security and Conflict, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-07-14; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many of the 50 largest commercial banks in the US will fail in 2023?
The failure of the Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023 has sent shock waves through financial markets (FDIC, CNBC, BBC). For the purposes of this question, the 50 largest commercial banks in the US are the top 50 as listed by the Federal Reserve as of 31 December 2022 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, a bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcomes. The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).
Tags: Business, Finance, Society, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-03-10; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: 1, 2, 3, 4 or more
Answer: 3
Question: Will federal legislation reducing or eliminating clean hydrogen and/or carbon sequestration tax credits become law before 1 January 2024?
As part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) signed by President Biden in 2022, tax credits were created for the production of clean hydrogen and expanded for carbon sequestration, but Republicans have proposed the repeal of clean hydrogen tax credits and discussed changing carbon sequestration tax credits (The Hill, Resources for the Future, Brownstein, 26 U.S. Code § 45V - Clean Hydrogen, 26 U.S. Code § 45Q - Carbon Sequestration). The date the legislation would take effect would be immaterial, and pertinent changes to sections other than 45V and 45Q that would reduce or eliminate clean hydrogen and/or carbon sequestration tax credits in terms of amount or duration would count.
Tags: Business, Technology, Environment, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-05-16; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, only clean hydrogen tax credits, Yes, only carbon sequestration tax credits, Yes, both clean hydrogen and carbon sequestration tax credits, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2024, will Disney publicly announce an agreement to sell all of its ownership stake in the streaming service Hulu?
Disney currently owns two-thirds of Hulu, with Comcast owning the remaining third and each having options to compel the other to buy or sell their stakes in the company in January 2024 (Hollywood Reporter, CNBC, SEC). The effective date of a sale would be immaterial, but the buyer or buyers must be party to the agreement but not necessarily named.
Tags: Business, Technology, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-03-03; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2024, will all four reactor units at the Barakah nuclear power plant have begun commercial operation?
Construction began on the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant in 2012, with two of its four reactors having already begun commercial operations (Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant, NUCNET - 6 April 2021, NUCNET - 24 March 2022). As of the launch of this question, the third reactor was nearing commercial operation, while construction on the fourth and final was nearing completion (NUCNET - 13 December 2022, Yonhap News Agency). Whether commerical operations are stopped or suspended after beginning would be immaterial.
Tags: Business, Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2023-02-02; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2024, will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person?
As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin have each brought up the potential for peace talks (NPR, Axios). The meeting must be face-to-face but can occur in any venue and does not need to be bilateral to count. An acting president under the constitution of the relevant country would count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-01-06; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a shutdown of the US federal government in 2023?
The last federal shutdown occurred in December 2018 to January 2019, and current appropriations would expire on 30 September 2023 (Congressional Research Service, ABC News, H.R.2617). For the purposes of this question, a "shutdown of the US federal government" would mean a ceasing of operations due to a lack of funding appropriation. A partial shutdown would count (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget).
Tags: Finance, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-01-13; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2024, will Rishi Sunak cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?
Rishi Sunak was appointed as the UK's prime minister on 25 October 2022, the third UK PM in 2022 (BBC, CNBC).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-10-28; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will a new parliamentary election be called in Canada?
There is speculation that Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau may call for early parliamentary elections in 2023 (Politico, CBC). For early elections to be called, the Governor General, usually at the request of the prime minister, must dissolve parliament and issue election writs (Elections Canada, Twitter - Governor General of Canada, Canadian Gazette - Proclamation Dissolving Parliament, Canadian Gazette - Proclamation Issuing Election Writs). A by-election would not count (Elections Canada).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-02-01; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Before 1 July 2023, Between 1 July 2023 and 31 December 2023, Not before 1 January 2024
Answer: Not before 1 January 2024
Question: When will a ride-hailing service open to the public, which uses autonomous vehicles, be launched and/or tested on public roads in Dubai with passengers?
Dubai aims to be a leading location in the deployment of autonomous vehicles and has an agreement with Cruise for the deployment of a ride-hailing service by 2023, with mapping and testing commencing in July 2022 (Dubai Roads and Transport Authority, The National). The service, while operating or testing, must include members of the public as passengers to count. A service that operates along a fixed route (e.g., shuttles) would not count. A service involving back-up drivers present in the vehicle would not count, but a service involving remote back-up operators would count. A qualifying service which requires rider prescreening or registration before use would count, and payment for service is not required.
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2022-11-08; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Before 1 January 2023, Between 1 January 2023 and 30 April 2023, Between 1 May 2023 and 31 August 2023, Between 1 September 2023 and 31 December 2023, Not before 1 January 2024
Answer: Not before 1 January 2024
Question: Before 1 January 2024, will a nuclear device be detonated somewhere in the world?
As of the launch of this question, it is generally believed that no fewer than nine countries in the world have nuclear weapons (Arms Control Association, Federation of American Scientists). Whether a detonation is characterized as a test, an accident, a warning, or an attack would be immaterial, and the detonation of a device in orbit around Earth would count. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov). Whether or not a nuclear device has been detonated will be determined using credible open source media reporting. That determination must be made during the question's open period to count, as well as the detonation.
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-10-28; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Dina Boluarte cease to be the president of Peru before 1 January 2024?
Protests in Peru have continued since President Castillo was removed from office by the Congress, with protests calling for, among other things, President Dina Boluarte to resign (BBC, Voice of America, NPR).
Tags: Society, Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-01-27; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2024, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?
Taiwan has raised concerns regarding potential actions by the People's Republic of China in the Pratas Island (News.com.au, Business Insider, Taipei Times, Yahoo).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-01-06; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2024, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed?
China and the GCC began negotiations for a free trade agreement in 2005, and seeking an agreement was discussed on President Xi Jinping's December 2022 visit to Saudi Arabia (China Ministry of Commerce, Voice of America, Middle East Eye, GCC). The signing of an FTA or the announcement of an agreement in principle (see EU-Mercosur announcement) would count, and ratification would be immaterial (e.g., New Zeeland Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, BBC).
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-12-30; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2024?
Over two years after a deadly clash in the Himalayas left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain (Diplomat, The Hindu, Outlook India, Devdiscourse). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-10-26; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the water level at Lake Powell fall below the minimum power pool elevation of 3,490 feet in 2023?
Amid historic drought and high demand, water levels are so low at Lake Powell, a reservoir in Arizona and Utah, that hydroelectric power generation is threatened (Las Vegas Review Journal, 12News). The minimum power pool elevation, the minimum level of the lake necessary to generate electricity, is 3,490 feet (US Bureau of Reclamation - 2-Year Probabilistic Projections). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Bureau of Reclamation (US Bureau of Reclamation - Upper Colorado Region Historic Data). Select "Reservoir" under "Water Operations: Historic Data," change "SELECT SITE" to "LAKE POWELL," select the range of data you want, and check only "Elevation (feet)" on the left, "Data Table" on the right, and click "Submit." On 1 December 2022, the elevation of Lake Powell was 3527.89 feet.
Tags: Technology, Environment, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-12-23; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will elections for the Kurdistan Parliament be held in 2023?
In October 2022, the Kurdistan Parliament extended its current term because political parties in the regional party could not come to an agreement on holding elections in 2022 as planned (Kurdistan24, Al Arabiya, Parliament.krd). The question would close early upon the official announcement that parliamentary elections will not take place in 2023.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-10-14; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will doctors attempt an organ xenotransplantation (organ transplant from a nonhuman animal to a human) on a live human patient in the European Union before 1 January 2024?
In early 2022, doctors in Maryland transplanted a genetically modified pig heart into a human patient (NBC News, CBS Baltimore). For the purposes of this question, an "organ" would be a heart, intestine, kidney, liver, lung, or pancreas (Cleveland Clinic). The xenotransplantation attempt must take place in an EU member state to count, though the nationality of the doctors and patient would be immaterial. For information on the current state of EU policy on the matter, see: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2022/697212/EPRS_ATA(2022)697212_EN.pdf.
Tags: Technology, Health
Question opened: 2022-02-04; closed: 2024-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Which NFL team will win the AFC North division in the 2023 season?
The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (NFL).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-09-01; closed: 2023-12-31
Options: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
Answer: Baltimore Ravens
Question: What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 29 December 2023?
The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED).
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-08-18; closed: 2023-12-29
Options: Less than 3,455, Between 3,455 and 3,725, inclusive, More than 3,725 but less than 3,995, Between 3,995 and 4,265, inclusive, More than 4,265 but less than 4,535, Between 4,535 and 4,805, inclusive, More than 4,805 but less than 5,075, Between 5,075 and 5,345, inclusive, More than 5,345
Answer: Between 4,535 and 4,805, inclusive
Question: What will be the closing yield for the Japanese 10-year bond on 29 December 2023?
The Bank of Japan has been loosening its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy in recent years, with more changes or even an abolition of the YCC expected in the near future (CNBC, US News & World Report, Bank of Japan). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to "1Y" and hover cursor over the chart for data). The closing yield for the Japanese 10-year bond on 28 July 2023 was 0.5560%.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-08-04; closed: 2023-12-29
Options: Less than 0.5000%, Between 0.5000% and 0.7500%, inclusive, More than 0.7500% but less than 1.0000%, Between 1.0000% and 1.2500%, inclusive, More than 1.2500% but less than 1.5000%, 1.5000% or more
Answer: Between 0.5000% and 0.7500%, inclusive
Question: Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) begin trading on a US exchange before 30 December 2023?
Attempts to create a bitcoin ETF in the US continue, with asset manager BlackRock making an application with the SEC in June 2023 (Investopedia, US News & World Report, Yahoo). ETFs for bitcoin derivatives (e.g., futures) or of firms that have cryptocurrency exposure would not count.
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-06-30; closed: 2023-12-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No