jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Before 1 July 2020, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?
Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown (Reuters, IPE, Economist, Economist Intelligence Unit, Financial Times). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1412, which closes in 2021 (Question #1412). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
Tags: Business, Finance, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2019-12-11; closed: 2020-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 July 2020, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?
Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown (Financial Times, AP, IPE, El Universal [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1411, which closes in 2021 (Question #1411). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
Tags: Business, Finance, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2019-12-11; closed: 2020-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 30 June 2020?
The question will be suspended on 29 June 2020. The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 30 June 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (WHO). As of 16 April 2020, WHO reported 98,480 total confirmed cases for the United Kingdom (WHO).
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-04-17; closed: 2020-06-30
Options: Less than 180,000 cases, Between 180,000 and 260,000 cases, inclusive, More than 260,000 but less than 340,000 cases, Between 340,000 and 420,000 cases, inclusive, More than 420,000 cases
Answer: More than 260,000 but less than 340,000 cases
Question: Between 7 February 2020 and 30 June 2020, will a lethal confrontation in Libya result in eight or more fatalities for Turkish armed forces?
In the midst of ongoing turmoil in Libya, Turkey has begun deploying armed forces to the country (Economist, BBC). Tensions are high as various international actors support different Libyan factions (Al Jazeera, Middle East Monitor, Foreign Policy in Focus). Both the lethal confrontation and fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2020-02-07; closed: 2020-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 27 June 2020, will the weekly average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. fall below 3.00%?
Outcome will be determined by data from the Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Applications Survey press release, generally published five days after the week's end at Mortgage Bankers Association. For the week ending 6 March 2020, the rate was 3.47% (Mortgage Bankers Association).
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-03-13; closed: 2020-06-27
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 July 2020, will Nepal release its 2020 census results for Indian rhinoceros?
Nepal plans to conduct the census in March-April 2019, as there are concerns regarding the Indian rhinoceros population in the region (Khabarhub, Mongabay, Online Khabar).
Tags: Environment
Question opened: 2019-11-29; closed: 2020-07-01
Options: Yes, counting less than 550 Indian rhinoceros, Yes, counting between 550 and 600 Indian rhinoceros, Yes, counting more than 600 but less than 650 Indian rhinoceros, Yes, counting 650 or more Indian rhinoceros, No
Answer: No
Question: When will British Airways resume commercial flights to mainland China?
On 10 February 2020, British Airways announced that it had canceled all flights to Beijing and Shanghai until 31 March 2020, which it later extended until 17 April 2020 (Reuters, British Airways). Flights to Hong Kong or Macau would not count. For the purposes of this question, resumption of commercial flights will have occurred once a British Airways commercial flight is en route to mainland China.
Tags: Business, Health
Question opened: 2020-02-21; closed: 2020-07-01
Options: Before 1 May 2020, Between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2020, Between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020, Not before 1 July 2020
Answer: Not before 1 July 2020
Question: When will an NBA game next be played?
On 11 March 2020, the National Basketball Association (NBA) announced that it was suspending game play "until further notice" after a player tested positive for COVID-19 (NBA, ESPN). Whether the next NBA game is played before spectators is immaterial. An exhibition game would not count.
Tags: Business, Health, Sports
Question opened: 2020-03-13; closed: 2020-07-01
Options: Before 1 April 2020, Between 1 April 2020 and 30 April 2020, Between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2020, Between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020, Not before 1 July 2020
Answer: Not before 1 July 2020
Question: What will happen in the first round of the next presidential election in Poland?
Poland recently postponed its presidential election due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was rescheduled for 28 June 2020 (US News, Reuters). An independent endorsed by a political party would count as a candidate of that political party.
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-06-05; closed: 2020-06-28
Options: A Law and Justice candidate will win a majority of votes, A Law and Justice candidate will win a plurality of votes, A Civic Platform candidate will win a majority of votes, A Civic Platform candidate will win a plurality of votes, None of the above
Answer: A Law and Justice candidate will win a plurality of votes
Question: Will the United States experience at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth in 2020?
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases three estimates for each quarter: advance, second, and third, and the release dates for 2020 can be found here: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule. This question will be resolved based on the third estimates for Q1, Q2, and Q3, typically released 3 months after the end of each quarter, and the advance estimate for Q4, expected in mid-January 2021. The third estimate for Q3 2019 indicated that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent (BEA 2019). The last time the quarter-on-quarter U.S. GDP growth rate was negative was Q1 2014 (BEA 2014).
Tags: Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-01-17; closed: 2020-04-02
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win New York's 14th Congressional District Democratic primary?
The 14th Congressional District of New York is scheduled to hold its Democratic primary election on 23 June 2020. The incumbent, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has an international profile (Ballotpedia, NYPost, Guardian).
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-28; closed: 2020-06-23
Options: Yes, and she will win a majority of votes, Yes, and she will win a plurality of votes, No
Answer: Yes, and she will win a majority of votes
Question: Will formal negotiations between Russia and the United States on an extension, modification, or replacement for the New START treaty begin before 1 October 2020?
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between Russia and the United States entered into force on 5 February 2011 and is scheduled to remain in force for ten years (Economist). There is an option to extend it for up to five years upon the agreement of both parties, or a new deal could be negotiated (CNN, Federation of American Scientists).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2020-03-06; closed: 2020-06-22
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 19 June 2020 relative to its closing value on 19 March 2020?
The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). The S&P 500 Index closed at 2,409.39 on 19 March 2020.
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2020-03-20; closed: 2020-06-19
Options: Down more than 15.0%, Down between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, Between down less than 5.0% and up less than 5.0%, Up between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, Up more than 15.0%
Answer: Up more than 15.0%
Question: In Department of Homeland Security (DHS) v. Regents of the University of California, will the Supreme Court rule that the DHS's decision to wind down the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy (DACA) is lawful?
In 2017, the Trump administration began to phase out DACA, which postponed deportation proceedings for individuals illegally in the U.S. who were brought to the U.S. as children (Oyez). Various parties sued DHS, claiming among other things that the means DHS used to wind down the program were unlawful (SCOTUSblog, Casetext). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2019 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
Tags: US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2019-11-01; closed: 2020-06-18
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2020?
Question opened: 2020-05-29; closed: 2020-06-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: In Zarda v. Altitude Express, Inc., will the Supreme Court rule that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibition against employment discrimination “because of…sex” encompasses discrimination based on an individual’s sexual orientation?
Donald Zarda, a former sky-diving instructor, was terminated from his job after an alleged incident with a customer (Oyez, Case Text). After losing a sex discrimination suit claiming that he was dismissed for being homosexual, Zarda appealed and ultimately prevailed in the Second Circuit asserting, among other things, that he was protected as a homosexual under the Civil Rights Act (Case Text). The former employer filed this appeal (SCOTUSBlog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2019 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as no.
Tags: US Policy
Question opened: 2019-09-27; closed: 2020-06-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: In R.G. & G.R. Harris Funeral Homes Inc. v. EEOC, will the Supreme Court rule that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibition against employment discrimination “because of…sex” encompasses discrimination based on transgender status?
Aimee Stephens (formerly known as Anthony Stephens) worked as a funeral director at R.G. & G.R. Harris Funeral Homes, Inc. After she informed the Funeral Home’s owner and operator that she intended to transition from male to female, she was terminated (Oyez, Case Text). Stephens filed a complaint with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), which eventually led to her prevailing at the Sixth Circuit (SCOTUSBlog). The former employer filed this appeal (Supreme Court). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2019 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as no.
Tags: US Policy
Question opened: 2019-09-27; closed: 2020-06-15
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will the 7-day average number of new cases of COVID-19 be in Texas for the week ending 13 June 2020, as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services?
Question opened: 2020-05-04; closed: 2020-06-13
Options: Less than 675, Between 675 and 900, inclusive, More than 900 but less than 1,350, Between 1,350 and 1,800, inclusive, More than 1,800
Answer: Between 1,350 and 1,800, inclusive
Question: Who will win the 2020 Bolivian presidential election?
After the controversial re-election and subsequent resignation of leftist president Evo Morales in late 2019, a special general election has been scheduled for 3 May 2020 with a runoff scheduled for 14 June 2020 if needed (Americas Quarterly, AS/COA, France24).
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-02-21; closed: 2020-06-14
Options: Jeanine Áñez, Luis Arce, Luis Camacho, Carlos Mesa, Someone else or another outcome
Answer: Someone else or another outcome
Question: Between 11 October 2019 and 12 June 2020, will the Hong Kong dollar close above HK$7.8510?
The Hong Kong dollar has been pegged to the U.S. dollar since 1983, and has been pegged to trade between HK$7.75 and HK$7.85 per U.S. dollar since 2005 (Reuters, Bloomberg). Ongoing anti-government protests have raised concerns about Hong Kong's economy, including the stability of the Hong Kong dollar (South China Morning Post, Reuters). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2019-10-11; closed: 2020-06-12
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: At close of business on 10 June 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 29 April 2020?
The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 9-10 June 2020.
Tags: Finance, Economic Policy
Question opened: 2020-01-31; closed: 2020-06-10
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: Before 9 October 2020, will the music festival Coachella, which has been rescheduled for October 2020, be postponed or canceled?
Coachella, an annual music festival that typically takes place in April, was rescheduled in 2020 due to concerns over COVID-19 (NY Times, CNN). The festival is now scheduled for 9-11 and 16-18 October. For the purposes of this question, a partial cancellation and/or partial postponement would not count.
Tags: Business, Health, Entertainment
Question opened: 2020-03-20; closed: 2020-06-11
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Who will win the 2020 Georgia Democratic primary?
The Georgia primary is scheduled for 24 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-28; closed: 2020-06-09
Options: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else
Answer: Joe Biden
Question: Who will be selected as the next leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party at its special party congress?
A race to succeed Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer began when she announced unexpectedly in February she will step down as CDU party leader later this summer (BBC). Her successor is expected to be selected during a special party congress, scheduled for 25 April 2020 (Deutsche Welle, Foreign Policy).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2020-03-13; closed: 2020-05-16
Options: Armin Laschet, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, Someone else, No successor will be selected at the special party congress or the special party congress will be canceled
Answer: No successor will be selected at the special party congress or the special party congress will be canceled
Question: Will the 2020 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference (NPT RevCon) produce a consensus statement?
There have been nine NPT RevCons in the treaty's existence (Economist). The widely used metric of a successful conference is for all parties to reach consensus on a RevCon final document. Four RevCons have failed to reach consensus, but never before at consecutive conferences (European Leadership Network). The NPT RevCon is scheduled to take place in New York from 27 April to 22 May 2020 (State.gov).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2019-12-06; closed: 2020-06-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 June 2020?
Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite increasing international pressure and domestic instability (Economist, Americas Quarterly, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit
Question opened: 2019-12-13; closed: 2020-06-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Who will win the 2020 Ohio Democratic primary?
The Ohio primary is scheduled for 17 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2020-02-21; closed: 2020-04-29
Options: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Someone else
Answer: Joe Biden
Question: How much of the U.S. corn crop will be planted as of 31 May 2020, according to the USDA?
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) releases regular Crop Progress reports with, among other things, a percentage of acreage planted among major corn-producing states (USDA Crop Progress Reports). The outcome will be determined using data for selected states provided in the USDA's Crop Progress report scheduled for release on 1 June 2020 (USDA Release Schedule). As of 2 June 2019, 67% of corn plantings by acre were completed in selected states (USDA 3 June 2019 Crop Progress, see table on page 1).
Tags: Business
Question opened: 2020-02-07; closed: 2020-06-01
Options: Less than 70%, Between 70% and 80%, inclusive, More than 80% but less than 90%, 90% or more
Answer: 90% or more
Question: When will the CDC's novel coronavirus travel notice for China be lowered below "Warning - Level 3" and/or narrowed to cover only part of the country?
On 27 January 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) widened its highest travel warning, “Warning - Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel,” to include all of China (CDC, Washington Post).
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-02-07; closed: 2020-06-01
Options: Before 1 March 2020, Between 1 March 2020 and 15 April 2020, Between 16 April 2020 and 31 May 2020, Not before 1 June 2020
Answer: Not before 1 June 2020
Question: Before 1 July 2020, will SpaceX launch its first crewed mission into orbit?
After passing a key safety milestone in January 2020 (SpaceX), Elon Musk is hopeful 'Crew Dragon', SpaceX's crewed capsule, launches soon (Space.com, CNBC).
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2020-02-28; closed: 2020-05-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: By when will more than 15,000,000 COVID-19 tests have been conducted in the United States?
COVID-19 testing constraints in the United States have been a crucial factor in the response to the outbreak (NY Times, The Atlantic, Stat News, CNN). This question will be resolved based on total tests data reported for a date as of the following day at 4:00PM ET by The COVID Tracking Project for "US Daily Cumulative Totals" (COVID Tracking Project). As of 8 April 2020, 2,197,743 COVID-19 total tests had been conducted in the United States.
Tags: Technology, Health
Question opened: 2020-04-10; closed: 2020-05-27
Options: Before 1 May 2020, Between 1 May and 31 May 2020, Between 1 June and 30 June 2020, Between 1 July 2020 and 31 July 2020, Not before 1 August 2020
Answer: Between 1 May and 31 May 2020
Question: Before 1 January 2021, will Tesla release an Autopilot feature designed to navigate traffic lights?
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has expressed interest in adding a feature to navigate city streets, including traffic lights (The Driven, Endgadget, EV Bite).
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2020-04-02; closed: 2020-04-24
Options: Before 1 July 2020, Between 1 July and 30 September 2020, Between 1 October and 31 December 2020, Not before 1 January 2021
Answer: Before 1 July 2020
Question: How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 17 May 2020?
Question opened: 2020-05-11; closed: 2020-05-17
Options: Less than 1,400,000, Between 1,400,000 and 1,450,000, inclusive, More than 1,450,000 but less than 1,500,000, Between 1,500,000 and 1,550,000, inclusive, More than 1,550,000 but less than 1,600,000, Between 1,600,000 and 1,650,000, inclusive, More than 1,650,000
Answer: More than 1,450,000 but less than 1,500,000
Question: How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Arab Emirates as of 15 May 2020?
The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the latest Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report as of 15 May 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (WHO Situation Reports). As of 9 April 2020, WHO reported 2,659 confirmed cases for the United Arab Emirates (WHO).
Tags: Health
Question opened: 2020-04-10; closed: 2020-05-15
Options: Less than 5,000 cases, Between 5,000 and 10,000 cases, inclusive, More than 10,000 but less than 25,000 cases, Between 25,000 and 50,000 cases, inclusive, More than 50,000 cases
Answer: More than 10,000 but less than 25,000 cases
Question: Between 4 October 2019 and 12 May 2020, how many states will fully ban the retail sale of vaping products?
While many American jurisdictions have imposed various restrictions on the sale of vaping products, Massachusetts became the first state to impose a full ban (MassLive, Mass.gov, FDA). When a ban would take effect is immaterial.
Tags: Business, Health
Question opened: 2019-10-04; closed: 2020-05-12
Options: Zero, One or two, Three or four, Five or more
Answer: Zero
Question: What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 13 May 2020, according to Bloomberg?
Amid the COVID-19 outbreak spreading around the world and fears of a price war between Russia and OPEC members, oil prices saw their largest single day percentage drop since 1991 (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).
Tags: Health, Economic Indicators, Foreign Policy
Question opened: 2020-03-10; closed: 2020-05-13
Options: Less than $25.00, Between $25.00 and $35.00, inclusive, More than $35.00 but less than $45.00, Between $45.00 and $55.00, inclusive, More than $55.00
Answer: Between $25.00 and $35.00, inclusive