jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: What will Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization be on 28 December 2018?
Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure reported by Bloomberg.
Tags: Finance
Question opened: 2018-04-11; closed: 2018-12-28
Options: Less than $360 billion, Between $360 billion and $430 billion, inclusive, More than $430 billion but less than $500 billion, Between $500 billion and $570 billion, inclusive, Greater than $570 billion
Answer: Between $360 billion and $430 billion, inclusive
Question: Before 1 January 2019, will the US federal government ban the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of bump stocks?
In the wake of the mass shooting in Parkland, Florida, President Trump signalled his willingness to regulate "bump stocks," an after-market accessory for semi-automatic rifles. (NY Times)  Legislation banning such devices has been introduced in Congress (CNN, CNN), and Speaker Paul Ryan has called for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) to ban them by regulation (The Hill) under existing law.  Regulatory or legislative bans will count, as will bans with exemptions. The date that any ban would take effect is immaterial to the outcome of the question.
Tags: Society, US Politics
Question opened: 2018-03-07; closed: 2018-12-26
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 15 December 2018, will the House of Commons approve the Withdrawal Agreement of the United Kingdom from the European Union?
Whether the House of Commons will approve the Withdrawal Agreement of the United Kingdom from the European Union is object of a great deal of uncertainty and speculation (BBC, The Guardian, Financial Times, Financial Times). The House of Commons approving a revised withdrawal agreement will not count.
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2018-11-30; closed: 2018-12-14
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 July 2017 and 1 July 2018, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?
Although production of Tesla's Model 3s have ramped up, deliveries are still well below the targets Tesla set last summer (Auto Blog, Wired, Teslarati). See (GJOpen) for forecasts on deliveries for the same time period above 50,000.
Tags: Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2018-04-18; closed: 2018-07-01
Options: 29,000 or less, More than 29,000 but less than 36,000, Between 36,000 and 43,000, inclusive, More than 43,000 but less than 50,000, 50,000 or more
Answer: 29,000 or less
Question: Which current candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives will the Center for Responsive Politics list as having raised the most money this election cycle?
This question will be suspended on 5 November and resolved using data retrieved on 1 December 2018 from Opensecrets.org, and by selecting "Current Candidates Only" (e.g., Jon Ossoff is not a current candidate) and "Current Cycle Only."
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2018-10-19; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: David Trone (D-MD), Devin Nunes (R-CA), Gil Cisneros (D-CA), Scott Wallace (D-PA), Someone else
Answer: David Trone (D-MD)
Question: Which current candidate for the U.S. Senate will the Center for Responsive Politics list as having raised the most money this election cycle?
This question will be suspended on 5 November and resolved using data retrieved on 1 December 2018 from Opensecrets.org, and by selecting "Current Candidates Only" and "Current Cycle Only."
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2018-10-19; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: Beto O'Rourke (D-TX), Rick Scott (R-FL), Claire McCaskill (D-MO), Bob Hugin, Someone else
Answer: Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)
Question: In Weyerhaeuser Company v. US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), will the Supreme Court rule that the FWS erroneously applied the Endangered Species Act (ESA) to any private land in St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana?
Question opened: 2018-09-21; closed: 2018-11-27
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the US dollar on 30 November 2018?
Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg.
Tags: Finance, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2018-08-22; closed: 2018-11-29
Options: Less than 5.00, Between 5.00 and 6.00, inclusive, More than 6.00 but less than 7.00, 7.00 or more
Answer: Between 5.00 and 6.00, inclusive
Question: Which party will hold a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 midterm elections?
Midterm elections are scheduled for 6 November 2018 (NY Times, The Washington Post, Ballotpedia). Independents will be counted for the party with which they caucus or conference. The President of the Senate will not count as a senator for the seat count, but will determine the majority party in the case that both parties hold 50 seats.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2018-02-14; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: Democratic Party, with 53 senators or more, Democratic Party, with less than 53 senators, Republican party, with less than 53 senators, Republican Party, with 53 senators or more
Answer: Republican Party, with 53 senators or more
Question: Who will win Mississippi's U.S. Senate special election runoff?
After neither candidate won more than 50% of the vote in the general election (Cindy Hyde-Smith won 41.5% and Mike Espy won 40.6%), a runoff election has been scheduled for 27 November 2018 (The Washington Post).
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2018-11-16; closed: 2018-11-27
Options: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), Mike Espy (D)
Answer: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Question: How many House seats held by Democrats from congressional districts carried by Donald Trump in 2016 will be won by Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections?
Question opened: 2018-07-25; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: 1 seat or less, Between 2 and 4 seats, inclusive, Between 5 and 7 seats, inclusive, Between 8 and 10 seats, inclusive, Between 11 and 13 seats, inclusive
Answer: Between 2 and 4 seats, inclusive
Question: How many House seats held by Republicans from congressional districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016 will be won by Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections?
Question opened: 2018-07-25; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: 5 seats or less, Between 6 and 10 seats, inclusive, Between 11 and 15 seats, inclusive, Between 16 and 20 seats, inclusive, Between 21 and 25 seats, inclusive
Answer: Between 21 and 25 seats, inclusive
Question: Which party will hold a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections?
Midterm elections are scheduled for 6 November 2018 (NY Times, Washington Post). Independents will be counted for the party with which they caucus or conference.
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2018-02-14; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: Democratic Party, with 230 or more representatives, Democratic Party, with less than 230 representatives, Republican Party, with less than 230 representatives, Republican Party, with 230 or more representatives
Answer: Democratic Party, with 230 or more representatives
Question: Who will be elected governor of Georgia in the 2018 election?
The Georgia gubernatorial election will take place on 6 November 2018. Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams is running against Republican nominee Brian Kemp (Real Clear Politics).
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2018-09-21; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: Stacey Abrams (D), Brian Kemp (R), Someone else
Answer: Brian Kemp (R)
Question: Who will be elected senator from Florida in the 2018 midterm elections?
Question opened: 2018-07-18; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: Bill Nelson (D), Rick Scott (R), Someone else
Answer: Rick Scott (R)
Question: Who will be elected senator from Arizona in the 2018 midterm elections?
Republican nominee Martha McSally is running against Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema in the 2018 midterm elections (Real Clear Politics).
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2018-09-21; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: Martha McSally (R), Kyrsten Sinema (D), Someone else
Answer: Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Question: Will the Democrats gain control of Congress in the 2018 midterm elections?
Thirty-four Senate seats and all four hundred thirty-five seats in the United States House of Representatives are up for election in 2018 (CNN, CNN).
Tags: US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2017-12-15; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: No, Yes, both chambers, Yes, the Senate, but not the House of Representatives, Yes, the House of Representatives, but not the Senate
Answer: Yes, the House of Representatives, but not the Senate
Question: Who will be elected governor of Florida in the 2018 election?
The Florida gubernatorial election will take place on 6 November 2018. Democratic nominee Andrew Gillum is running against Republican nominee Ron DeSantis (Real Clear Politics).
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2018-09-14; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: Ron DeSantis (R), Andrew Gillum (D), Someone else
Answer: Ron DeSantis (R)
Question: Who will be elected senator from Texas in the 2018 midterm elections?
Question opened: 2018-09-07; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: Ted Cruz (R), Beto O'Rourke (D), Someone else
Answer: Ted Cruz (R)
Question: Who will be elected governor of Wisconsin in the 2018 election?
The Wisconsin gubernatorial election will take place on 6 November 2018. Democratic nominee Tony Evers is running against Republican incumbent Scott Walker (Real Clear Politics).
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2018-09-14; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: Scott Walker (R), Tony Evers (D), Someone else
Answer: Tony Evers (D)
Question: Who will be elected senator from West Virginia in the 2018 midterm elections?
Question opened: 2018-07-18; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: Joe Manchin (D), Patrick Morrisey (R), Someone else
Answer: Joe Manchin (D)
Question: Will Dean Heller (R-NV) be re-elected this November?
Question opened: 2018-04-04; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Who will be elected senator from North Dakota in the 2018 midterm elections?
Question opened: 2018-07-18; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: Heidi Heitkamp (D), Kevin Cramer (R), Someone else
Answer: Kevin Cramer (R)
Question: Who will be elected senator from Indiana in the 2018 midterm elections?
Question opened: 2018-07-18; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: Joe Donnelly (D), Mike Braun (R), Someone else
Answer: Mike Braun (R)
Question: Will Claire McCaskill (D-MO) be re-elected this November?
Sen. Claire McCaskill is seeking re-election to the United States Senate on 6 November 2018. Attorney General Josh Hawley currently leads the Republican field (Real Clear Politics).
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2018-03-14; closed: 2018-11-06
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the government of Iran issue foreign currency denominated bonds?
Iran has not issued a foreign currency denominated bond since it issued euro-denominated bonds in 2002. After the nuclear deal speculation rose about a bond offering (The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, The Financial Tribune) and Iran has been in discussions with ratings agencies (Gulf News, The Financial Tribune).
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2017-11-14; closed: 2018-11-01
Options: Before 1 February 2018, Between 1 February and 30 April 2018, inclusive, Between 1 May 2018 and 31 July 2018, inclusive, Between 1 August 2018 and 31 October 2018, inclusive, Not before 1 November 2018
Answer: Not before 1 November 2018
Question: Who will win Brazil’s presidential election runoff?
Question opened: 2018-10-12; closed: 2018-10-28
Options: Jair Bolsonaro, Fernando Haddad, Someone else
Answer: Jair Bolsonaro
Question: Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed by the Senate before 6 November 2018?
Question opened: 2018-07-11; closed: 2018-10-06
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many Senate Democrats will vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court?
Senate Democrats, particularly those in states carried by President Trump in 2016, are being closely watched in the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation process (CNN, SCOTUSBlog). For the purposes of this question, both Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME) will count. This question will remain open until a confirmation vote is held or until the last day of the 115th Congress. In the event Kavanaugh's confirmation is withdrawn, the question will be voided.
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2018-08-01; closed: 2018-10-06
Options: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more
Answer: 1
Question: How many times will the Federal Open Market Committee raise the federal funds rate between 7 March and 30 September 2018?
The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Investopedia). The target for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee. The FOMC has meetings scheduled throughout the year, and there is internal debate about how quickly to raise rates (The Federal Reserve, The Federal Reserve, NY Times).
Tags: Economic Policy
Question opened: 2018-03-07; closed: 2018-09-30
Options: Less than 2, 2, 3, 4 or more
Answer: 3
Question: What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 1 October 2018?
The Economist).
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators, Outcome will be determined by the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the Energy Information Administration.  Experts are projecting slight increases in 2018 (Energy Information Administration, Reuters,
Question opened: 2018-01-10; closed: 2018-09-29
Options: Less than $50 per barrel, Between $50 and $60 per barrel, inclusive, More than $60 but less than $70 per barrel, Between $70 and $80 per barrel, inclusive, More than $80 per barrel
Answer: More than $80 per barrel
Question: When will a confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea, the United States, or Japan result in at least one fatality?
Question opened: 2017-11-14; closed: 2018-10-01
Options: Before 1 January 2018, Between 1 January 2018 and 31 March 2018, inclusive, Between 1 April 2018 and 30 June 2018, inclusive, Between 1 July 2018 and 30 September 2018, inclusive, Not before 1 October 2018
Answer: Not before 1 October 2018
Question: Where will the film "Fahrenheit 11/9" rank for its first week in theaters?
Question opened: 2018-09-07; closed: 2018-09-27
Options: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or lower
Answer: 5 or lower
Question: Before 1 October 2018, will Kim Jong-un cease to be supreme leader of North Korea?
Observers of North Korean politics have speculated about various ways in which Kim's tenure might end abruptly, including military coup (The Daily Beast), assassination (The Telegraph), foreign intervention (The Week), or state collapse (The Brookings Institution). In the event that Kim reportedly disappears or flees the capital, Good Judgment will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Kim returns in the interim, the question will remain open.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Leader Entry/Exit, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-11-07; closed: 2018-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 October 2018, will either Russia or the United States announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty?
For more information on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty see: U.S Department of State. Accusations of violations by both sides puts the future of the INF Treaty in question (Deutsche Welle).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, US Policy
Question opened: 2018-01-10; closed: 2018-09-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 October 2018, will Amazon announce where its second headquarters is to be located?
With 238 proposals submitted from 54 different states/provinces (Amazon, World Time Zones), Amazon has said a selection for its second headquarters will be made in early 2018. News surrounding the possible location changes weekly
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2017-12-12; closed: 2018-10-01
Options: Yes, a city in the  Pacific, Alaskan or Hawaii-Aleutian Time Zones, Yes, a city in the Mountain Time Zone, Yes, a city in the Central Time Zone, Yes, a city in the Eastern, Atlantic, or Newfoundland Time Zones, Yes, in a time zone other than those listed, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 October 2018, will the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA?
President Trump has repeated his campaign commitment to either negotiating better terms with Mexico and Canada or risk the United States withdrawing from NAFTA (CNN, Bloomberg, NAFTA Secretariat). Under Article 2205 of the agreement, any party can withdraw six months after providing written notice (NAFTA Secretariat).
Tags: Business, Foreign Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2017-12-12; closed: 2018-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 October 2018, will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resign, lose a vote of confidence, or call new elections?
Prime Minister Netanyahu faces an array of challenges, including ongoing investigations (NY Times, NY Times, Al-Monitor, Al-Monitor, The Jerusalem Post, Times of Israel).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-11-21; closed: 2018-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 October 2018?
Prime Minister Theresa May faces a number of leadership challenges as she navigates Brexit (Bloomberg, Evening Standard).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2017-11-21; closed: 2018-10-01
Options: Yes, someone from the Conservative Party, Yes, someone from the Labour Party, Yes, someone from a party other than the Labour or Conservative Parties, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 21 November 2017 and 30 September 2018, how will S&P next adjust the United Kingdom's long-term issuer credit rating?
Revisions to the "outlook" will not suffice. S&P and Fitch downgraded the United Kingdom after the 2016 Brexit vote, and Moody's did the same in September 2017. While S&P recently reaffirmed its AA rating, it cautioned that the risk of a disorderly Brexit may lead to a further downgrade (Reuters, Financial Times).
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2017-11-21; closed: 2018-10-01
Options: Up, Down, No Adjustment
Answer: No Adjustment
Question: Will there be a new king of Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2018?
After the appointment of Mohammed bin Salman as Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, recent developments have raised questions concerning the future of the kingdom.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit
Question opened: 2017-11-21; closed: 2018-10-01
Options: Yes, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Yes, someone else, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2019, will South Korean President Moon Jae-in visit Pyongyang?
President Moon visiting Pyongyang is part of the Panmunjom Declaration signed by North and South Korea (The Washington Post, Yonhap News, The Washington Post)
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2018-06-06; closed: 2018-09-18
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Before 1 October 2018, will Brazil's Workers' Party nominate a candidate for president who is not Luiz Inàcio Lula da Silva?
Lula's conviction and incarceration based upon corruption charges has cast doubt on his ability to run in Brazil's upcoming presidential election (The Economist, The Washington Post, MercoPress, The Economist).
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2018-04-18; closed: 2018-09-11
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: When will a member of China's Politburo Standing Committee visit North Korea?
Disputes over North Korea's nuclear and missile program have strained the relationship between the two allies (Council on Foreign Relations). The last high-level Chinese visit to Pyongyang was made by a member of the Politburo Standing Committee in 2015 (Bloomberg, Beyond Parallel).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2017-10-24; closed: 2018-09-08
Options: Before 1 February 2018, Between 1 February 2018 and 30 April 2018, inclusive, Between 1 May 2018 and 31 July 2018, inclusive, Between 1 August 2018 and 31 October 2018, inclusive, Not before 1 November 2018
Answer: Between 1 August 2018 and 31 October 2018, inclusive
Question: In July 2018, how will the Chinese renminbi rank as an international payments currency according to SWIFT?
Data for July 2018 is due to be released in SWIFT's August 2018 RMB Tracker (SWIFT).
Tags: Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2017-08-08; closed: 2018-07-31
Options: #1 - #3, inclusive, #4 - #7, inclusive, More than #7
Answer: #4 - #7, inclusive
Question: Will Joe Arpaio win the Republican Party nomination for the Arizona U.S. Senate seat currently held by Jeff Flake?
Former Sheriff Joe Arpaio has announced that he is running in Arizona for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake (NY Times, Reuters, The Washington Post). The primary election is scheduled to take place on 28 August 2018 (Arizona Secretary of State).
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2018-01-24; closed: 2018-08-28
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Which party will win Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election?
Question opened: 2018-04-04; closed: 2018-08-07
Options: Republican Party, Democratic Party, Other
Answer: Republican Party
Question: How many high school students will play eleven-player football in the 2017/18 season?
A recently published study on chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) found traces of the degenerative brain disease not only in former NFL players, but in college and high school football players as well (The Journal of the American Medical Association, NY Times, ESPN).  Eleven-player football enrollment declined by approximately 23K players from the 2015-16 season to the 2016-17 season. Outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Federation of State High School Associations (NFHS) for the 2017-18 season.
Tags: Health, Sports
Question opened: 2017-09-01; closed: 2018-08-01
Options: Less than 1,030,000, Between 1,030,000 and 1,040,000, inclusive, More than 1,040,000 but less than 1,050,000, Between 1,050,000 and 1,060,000, inclusive, More than 1,060,000
Answer: Between 1,030,000 and 1,040,000, inclusive
Question: Between 16 March 2017 and 16 March 2018, how many countries will submit written notification to the United Nations of their intent to withdraw from the ICC?
Burundi, South Africa, and Gambia submitted official notification to the UN of their intent to withdraw from the International Criminal Court in 2016, but South Africa and Gambia later withdrew their notification (Foreign Policy, International Criminal Court, NY Times). According to the Rome statute, a state must submit written notification to the Secretary-General of the United Nations of its intent to withdraw; the withdrawal takes effect one year after submission (see Article 127.1 on page 56 of the Rome Statute here). All notifications regarding the Rome Statute can be found here by selecting "Treaty Reference: XVIII-10". Any country that submits a notification between 14 March 2017 and 14 March 2018 will count, regardless of whether it later withdraws that notification.
Tags: Foreign Policy
Question opened: 2017-03-16; closed: 2018-03-16
Options: 0, 1, 2, 3-5, More than 5
Answer: 0
Question: Between 8 August 2017 and 7 August 2018, how many governments, from among Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, will have their long term issuer rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, or Fitch?
Recent macroeconomic developments have raised concerns regarding the debt profile of several GCC countries (Reuters, Reuters, Reuters, Gulf News, Bloomberg).
Tags: Economic Indicators, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2017-08-08; closed: 2018-08-07
Options: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
Answer: 3