jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: What percentage of all light vehicle sales in the US will be either plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) or all-electric vehicles (EVs) in 2022?
The push to transition the US to electric vehicles continues (Power Technology, McKinsey). The outcome will be determined using 2022 data as first reported in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Transportation Energy Data Book (TEDB), expected in early 2023 (Oak Ridge National Laboratory). For 2020, the updated TEDB reported 66.2 thousand PHEVs and 240.1 thousand EVs sold, which was 2.1702% of all light vehicle sales of 14,114 thousand that year (TEDB - Edition 39 (2021), see Table 6.2 on page 182, or 6-4, of the pdf file).
Tags: Business, Technology, Environment
Question opened: 2021-11-05; closed: 2023-01-01
Options: Less than 2.0%, Between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive, More than 3.0% but less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, More than 5.0%
Answer: More than 5.0%
Question: Between 10 February 2023 and 10 August 2023, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Armenia and Azerbaijan result in 100 or more fatalities?
Hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan flared up most recently in September 2022, and tensions remain high despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers (France 24, US News & World Report, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, the forces of Artsakh, the breakaway Armenian-majority republic in Nagorno-Karabakh, are considered Armenian forces.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-02-10; closed: 2023-08-11
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will President Biden's approval rating be as of 8 August 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?
The question will be suspended on 7 August 2023 and the outcome determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 10 July 2023, Biden's approval rating was 40.5%. The data for 8 August 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 10 August 2023.
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2023-07-18; closed: 2023-08-08
Options: Lower than 38.0%, At least 38.0%, but less than 39.0%, At least 39.0%, but less than 40.0%, At least 40.0%, but less than 41.0%, At least 41.0%, but less than 42.0%, At least 42.0%, but less than 43.0%, 43.0% or higher
Answer: At least 40.0%, but less than 41.0%
Question: Will at least one US show in Taylor Swift's 2023 "The Eras Tour" be canceled?
Pop star Taylor Swift is scheduled to begin her "The Eras Tour" on 17 March 2023 in Glendale, Arizona, and end on 9 August 2023 in Los Angeles, California (Taylor Swift - Events). For the purposes of this question, a postponement of any show scheduled as of the launch of this question to a date after 21 August 2023 would be considered a cancellation (Deadline). A venue change alone would count as a cancellation if the new venue cannot host all ticket holders for that show.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-01-06; closed: 2023-08-10
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the price of bitcoin on 8 August 2023?
The question will be suspended on 7 August 2023 and the outcome determined using the last price dated 8 August 2023 (PT) as reported by CoinDesk (CoinDesk, set chart to "1M").
Tags: Finance, Technology
Question opened: 2023-07-18; closed: 2023-08-08
Options: Less than $25,500, Between $25,500 and $27,000, inclusive, More than $27,000 but less than $28,500, Between $28,500 and $30,000, inclusive, More than $30,000 but less than $31,500, Between $31,500 and $33,000, inclusive, More than $33,000 but less than $34,500, Between $34,500 and $36,000, inclusive, More than $36,000
Answer: Between $28,500 and $30,000, inclusive
Question: What will be the closing value of shares of NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) on 8 August 2023?
Chipmaker NVIDIA has gained a lot of attention as the race for artificial intelligence heats up (Yahoo Finance, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 7 August 2023 and the outcome determined using closing price data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2023-07-18; closed: 2023-08-08
Options: Less than $390.00, Between $390.00 and $415.00, inclusive, More than $415.00 but less than $440.00, Between $440.00 and $465.00, inclusive, More than $465.00 but less than $490.00, Between $490.00 and $515.00, inclusive, More than $515.00 but less than $540.00, $540.00 or more
Answer: Between $440.00 and $465.00, inclusive
Question: Will the administrative services building in Bakhmut, Ukraine, be under Ukrainian control on 8 August 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
Fighting over the ruins of the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region continues (MSN, Moscow Times, Newsweek). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address of the building (Tsentr Nadannya Administratyvnykh Posluh Mista Bakhmut) is Myru St, 44, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500, to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. The location identified by the interactive map will be used for resolution, and whether the building is damaged or destroyed would be immaterial. "Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives" would count.
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2023-07-18; closed: 2023-08-08
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many total travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in the first week (1st - 7th) of August 2023?
While total air passenger traffic has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, the industry is struggling to keep up with demand (CNBC, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (TSA).
Tags: Business, Entertainment, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-07-18; closed: 2023-08-07
Options: Fewer than 16.6 million, Between 16.6 million and 17.4 million, inclusive, More than 17.4 million but fewer than 18.2 million, Between 18.2 million and 19.0 million, inclusive, More than 19.0 million but fewer than 19.8 million, 19.8 million or more
Answer: More than 17.4 million but fewer than 18.2 million
Question: What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 7 August 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?
The question will be suspended on 6 August 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 7 August 2023 (AAA, see "Today's AAA National Average" graphic).
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-07-18; closed: 2023-08-07
Options: Less than $3.18, Between $3.18 and $3.30, inclusive, More than $3.30 but less than $3.42, Between $3.42 and $3.54, inclusive, More than $3.54 but less than $3.66, Between $3.66 and $3.78, inclusive, More than $3.78 but less than $3.90, $3.90 or more
Answer: More than $3.78 but less than $3.90
Question: Which Major League Baseball team will be in first place in the National League's West Division (NL West) as of 6 August 2023?
The NL West was the most competitive division going into the All-star Break, with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers tied for first and the Giants 2.5 games behind (Arizona Sports). The question will be suspended on 5 August 2023 and the outcome determined using division standings data as reported by ESPN upon the conclusion of all games on 6 August 2023 (ESPN). A game that commences on 6 August 2022 will count toward the outcome regardless of when that game ends unless play is postponed to a future date.
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-07-18; closed: 2023-08-05
Options: Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants
Answer: Los Angeles Dodgers
Question: What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Turkish lira exchange rate on 4 August 2023?
The Turkish lira reached record lows against the US dollar since President Erdogan won reelection in late May 2023 (US News & World Report, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the US by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-07-18; closed: 2023-08-04
Options: Lower than 22.00, Between 22.00 and 24.00, inclusive, Higher than 24.00 but lower than 26.00, Between 26.00 and 28.00, inclusive, Higher than 28.00 but lower than 30.00, Between 30.00 and 32.00, inclusive, Higher than 32.00
Answer: Between 26.00 and 28.00, inclusive
Question: Which candidate, excluding Donald Trump, will have the highest level of 2024 Republican presidential nomination support as of 31 July 2023, according to RealClearPolitics?
The field of Republican candidates grew at the end of May 2023 with Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Tim Scott entering the race (Politico, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by RealClearPolitics' RCP Poll Average for the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination (RealClearPolitics, set to "3M"). Chart data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 August 2023. In the event of a tie, the candidate that most recently prior to 31 July 2023 had the lower level of support will be considered to have the highest level.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-05-26; closed: 2023-08-01
Options: Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Someone else
Answer: Ron DeSantis
Question: Will the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for July 2023 be greater than 3.6%?
While new jobs came in lighter than expected among economists in June 2023, the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.6% (CNBC). The question will be suspended on 3 August 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when first released, expected in August 2023 (BLS).
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-07-18; closed: 2023-08-04
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the change in total beverage volume sold by AB InBev, the owner of Budweiser products including Bud Light, in North America in the second quarter (Q2) of 2023 as compared to Q2 of 2022?
Sales of Bud Light, the most popular beer in the US, have been hit by pushback in the wake of AB InBev's promotional relationship with social media personality Dylan Mulvaney (USA Today, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, AP). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data for Q2 2022 and Q2 2023 as reported by AB InBev in its Q2 2023 report, expected in late July or early August 2023 (AB InBev - Investors). In the second quarter of 2022, AB InBev sold 27,361 thousand hectoliters (AB InBev - Second Quarter 2022 Results, see "North America" in Annex 1, Cambridge Dictionary - Hectoliter).
Tags: Business, Society, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-05-05; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Down by 6.0% or more, Down by more than 3.0% but less than 6.0%, Down by between 0.0% and 3.0%, inclusive, Up by more than 0.0% but less than 3.0%, Up by between 3.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, Up by more than 6.0%
Answer: Down by 6.0% or more
Question: When will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P either announce that the US has defaulted on its debt and/or downgrade the long-term credit rating of the US?
Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are the "Big Three" global credit rating agencies, which assign ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts (Investopedia - Credit Ratings Scale). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics - US Credit Rating). A downgrade to the outlook or a negative watch alone would not count (Investopedia - Negative Watch).
Tags: Finance, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-04-12; closed: 2023-08-01
Options: Before 30 June 2023, Between 1 July 2023 and 15 August 2023, Between 16 August 2023 and 30 September 2023, Between 1 October 2023 and 15 November 2023, Between 16 November 2023 and 31 December 2023, Not before 1 January 2024
Answer: Between 1 July 2023 and 15 August 2023
Question: How many EV Green Charger locations for electric vehicles will there be in Dubai as of 1 August 2023, according to the Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (DEWA)?
DEWA launched its Electric Vehicle (EV) Green Charger Initiative in 2015 to promote green transportation in the Dubai (DEWA). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by DEWA at approximately 5:00PM ET on 1 August 2023 (DEWA - EV Green Charger locations). As of 30 November 2022, there were 139 EV Green Charger locations.
Tags: Technology, Society, Environment
Question opened: 2022-12-02; closed: 2023-08-01
Options: Fewer than 139, Between 139 and 148, Between 149 and 158, Between 159 and 168, More than 168
Answer: Between 139 and 148
Question: How many hectares (ha) will be consumed by wildfires in Canada in 2023?
This question is a companion to the original #2893 launched on 26 May 2023.
Tags: Society, Environment, Canada has already seen a devastating start to the wildfire season in 2023 (NASDAQ, CTV, CBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC) in its "Canada Report" for 2023, expected in early 2024 (CIFFC - Annual Reports). In 2022, wildland fires consumed 1,656,504 hectares in Canada (CIFFC - Canada Report 2022, see page 15). A "hectare" is a metric unit of measure for area equivalent to 2.471 acres (Britannica - Hectare). Additional periodic data are available from CIFFC (CIFFC National Fire Situation Report).
Question opened: 2023-06-23; closed: 2023-08-01
Options: Fewer than 7.50 million, Between 7.50 million and 8.25 million, inclusive, More than 8.25 million but fewer than 9.00 million, Between 9.00 million and 9.75 million, inclusive, More than 9.75 million but fewer than 10.50 million, Between 10.50 million and 11.25 million, inclusive, More than 11.25 million but fewer than 12.00 million, Between 12.00 million and 12.75 million, inclusive, More than 12.75 million
Answer: More than 12.75 million
Question: Will all seven states that share the Colorado River Basin sign a proposal to the Bureau of Reclamation agreeing on Colorado River water usage cuts before 1 August 2023?
On 31 January 2023, six of the seven states (California didn't participate) that share the Colorado River Basin submitted a proposal to cut back on water usage from the river to help ensure that minimum levels in reservoirs on the river are maintained (UPI, NPR - Northern Colorado, Southern Nevada Water Authority). California offered its own proposal, but there is no consensus among the seven states (AP, The Hill).
Tags: Business, Society, Environment, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-02-17; closed: 2023-08-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for June 2023?
Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with the number of job openings above 10 million for the 13th consecutive month in July 2022 (CNBC, CBS News). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for June 2023, expected in July or August 2023 (BLS - JOLTS). As of 9 September 2022, the number of job openings reported for June 2022 for "Total US" was 11,040 (in thousands) (JOLTS - July 2022, see Table A). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under "JOLTS Databases," select "ONE SCREEN" from "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)." For "1 Select one or more Industries," select "Total nonfarm." For "2 Select one or more States or Regions," find and select "Total US." For "3 Select one or more Areas," select "All Areas." For "4 Select one or more Data Elements," find and select "Job openings." For "5 Select one or more Size Classes," find and select "All size classes." For "6 Select Rate and/or Level," leave only "Level - In Thousands" checked. For "7 Select Seasonal Adjustment," leave only "Seasonally Adjusted" checked, then click "Get Data."
Tags: Business, Society, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-09-09; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Fewer than 7.2 million, Between 7.2 million and 8.0 million, inclusive, More than 8.0 million but fewer than 8.8 million, Between 8.8 million and 9.6 million, inclusive, More than 9.6 million but fewer than 10.4 million, Between 10.4 million and 11.2 million, inclusive, More than 11.2 million but fewer than 12.0 million, 12.0 million or more
Answer: Between 8.8 million and 9.6 million, inclusive
Question: What will happen next with respect to the used car company Carvana?
With the car market cooling down as supply chain woes ease and interest rates rising, Carvana is facing various struggles (The Drive, Yahoo Finance, Kelly Blue Book). The question would close early upon a bankruptcy filing from Carvana in the US or an announcement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission that a party or parties has agreed to either merge with or purchase the whole company.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2023-03-03; closed: 2023-08-01
Options: Carvana will file for bankruptcy in the US, Carvana will announce an agreement that it will either merge with or be acquired by another firm, Neither will occur before 1 August 2023
Answer: Neither will occur before 1 August 2023
Question: Will any territory in Crimea that was Russian-controlled before 24 February 2022 cease to be under "Assessed Russian Control" before 1 August 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?
Russia seized and annexed Crimea in 2014, but Ukraine may seek to regain the territory as war continues in the country (NBC News, Politico, France 24). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW, labeled "The Autonomous Republic of Crimea").
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2023-04-12; closed: 2023-08-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 August 2023, will the Israeli Knesset pass an amendment to the "Basic Law: The Judiciary" amending the composition of the country's Committee for the Selection of Judges?
Mass protests have erupted across Israel for weeks as the government seeks to amend its quasi-constitutional Basic Law regarding the judiciary to, among other things, give the government more influence on the selection of judges in the country (Voice of America, BBC, Times of Israel, NPR, The Committee for the Selection of Judges [in Hebrew], Draft Basic Law: The Judiciary (Amendment No. 3) [in Hebrew]). The amendment would be deemed passed upon its passage on the third reading (Knesset - Legislation). Subsequent action by the Israeli judiciary, including the Supreme Court, would be immaterial (Times of Israel). The abolition of the committee would count, but a renaming alone would not count.
Tags: Society, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-03-31; closed: 2023-08-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 August 2023, will a US release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?
The Winds of Winter is the planned sixth novel in George R. R. Martin's "A Song of Ice and Fire" fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones (Rotten Tomatoes). There have been rumors that it could be released in 2023, though similar claims have been made in the past (Epic Stream, Express, Entertainment Weekly). A sixth novel in the series would count even if renamed from The Winds of Winter.
Tags: Business, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-02-17; closed: 2023-08-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 August 2023, will India and Taiwan either sign or announce the completion of negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA)?
India and Taiwan began negotiations for a free trade agreement in 2021 (Economic Times, Diplomat, The Hindu). The signing of an FTA or the announcement of an agreement in principle (see EU-Mercosur announcement) would count, and ratification would be immaterial (e.g., NZ Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Trade, BBC - EU-Mercosur announcement).
Tags: Business, Technology, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-11-25; closed: 2023-08-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 28 July 2023?
Growth expectations for the S&P 500 in 2023 have moderated going into the end of 2022 (Economist, US News & World Report, JPMorgan). The outcome will be determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED).
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-12-16; closed: 2023-07-28
Options: Less than 3,150, Between 3,150 and 3,400, inclusive, More than 3,400 but less than 3,650, Between 3,650 and 3,900, inclusive, More than 3,900 but less than 4,150, Between 4,150 and 4,400, inclusive, More than 4,400 but less than 4,650, 4,650 or more
Answer: More than 4,400 but less than 4,650
Question: What will be the value of the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for May 2023?
The US housing market has begun to slow amid rising mortgage rates and general economic anxiety (US News & World Report, CNBC, Yahoo Finance). The outcome will be determined using S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2023 and the outcome determined when monthly index data for May 2023 are first available, expected in July.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-09-16; closed: 2023-06-01
Options: Lower than 264.000, Between 264.000 and 276.000, inclusive, Higher than 276.000 but lower than 288.000, Between 288.000 and 300.000, inclusive, Higher than 300.000 but lower than 312.000, Between 312.000 and 324.000, inclusive, Higher than 324.000
Answer: Higher than 300.000 but lower than 312.000
Question: What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2023?
Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy going into 2023 (US News & World Report, CNN). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in July 2023 (FRED).
Tags: Business, Finance, Society, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-10-28; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Lower by more than 3.0%, Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive, Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%, Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive, Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%, Higher by 3.0% or more
Answer: Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%