jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Will real GDP in the UK contract in the first and/or second quarter (Q1 and Q2) of 2023?
The UK entered 2023 in a challenging economic environment (Economist, CNBC, HM Treasury). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using "Quarter on Quarter" data for the first and second quarters of 2023 as provided by the UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) once its "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2023" release is published, scheduled for 29 September 2023 (Gross Domestic Product: Quarter on Quarter growth: CVM SA %, select "Table" under "Show data as" for data, GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2023).
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-02-10; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Real GDP will contract in Q1 but not in Q2, Real GDP will contract in Q2 but not in Q1, Real GDP will contract in both Q1 and Q2, Real GDP will not contract in either Q1 or Q2
Answer: Real GDP will not contract in either Q1 or Q2
Question: Will the percentage of departure flights at Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) either delayed or cancelled in June 2023 be greater than it was in June 2022?
The US airline industry is facing various challenges, including pilot union negotiations and pilot shortages that could compound chronic flight delay problems at airports like ATL (CNBC, KPMG, Petoskey News). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) (Bureau of Transportation Statistics). On the BTS page, select "Atlanta, GA: Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International" under "Filter Airport," select "All Carriers" under "Filter Carriers," select appropriate year under "Filter Year," and select "Departures" under "Filter Operation." For June 2022, BTS reported 6,688 Departure Delays and 743 Flights Cancelled among 26,928 Flight Operations, meaning that 27.60% of all flights were either delayed or cancelled ((6,688+743)/26,928=27.60%).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Technology, Society
Question opened: 2023-03-03; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will US real GDP contract in the first quarter (Q1) and/or second quarter (Q2) of 2023?
Inflation, higher interest rates, and various geopolitical factors have raised concerns about economic growth in the US in 2023 (USA Today, Yahoo Finance, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data for Q1 and Q2 of 2023 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database upon the release of the BEA’s third estimate for Q2 2023 (FRED, BEA).
Tags: Society, Economic Indicators, US Policy
Question opened: 2022-12-30; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Yes, in both Q1 and Q2 2023, Yes, only in Q1 2023, Yes, only in Q2 2023, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the Writers Guild of America (WGA) vote to end its strike?
The WGA's contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, a trade group that represents studios and streamers, expired on 1 May 2023 and triggered a strike by writers (WGA, ABC7, Deadline). The last WGA strike ended in 2008 after union members voted to return to work after striking for 100 days (NBC News). The question would close upon the vote to end the strike irrespective of when the strike would actually end.
Tags: Business, Society, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-07-28; closed: 2023-09-27
Options: Before 1 October 2023, Between 1 October 2023 and 30 November 2023, Between 1 December 2023 and 31 January 2024, Between 1 February 2024 and 31 March 2024, Not before 1 April 2024
Answer: Before 1 October 2023
Question: How many Republican presidential candidates will participate in person for the second Republican primary debate in 2023?
The Republican National Committee has reportedly raised the minimum standards for participation in the second presidential primary debate (Politico). The second Republican presidential primary debate is scheduled for 27 September 2023 in Simi Valley, CA (USA Today). If the debate is rescheduled for another date in 2023, then the close date will be rescheduled accordingly. If there is no Republican primary debate in 2023, the question will be voided.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-09-01; closed: 2023-09-27
Options: 3 or fewer, 4 or 5, 6 or 7, 8 or 9, 10 or more
Answer: 6 or 7
Question: Which team will win the 2023 Formula One World Constructors' Championship?
Formula 1 auto racing is one of the most popular sports in the world (RTR Sports). The question will be suspended on 25 November 2023, the day before the final race in the season (Formula 1 - Constructor Standings, Formula 1 - Abu Dhabi Grand Prix).
Tags: Business, Technology, Sports
Question opened: 2023-03-10; closed: 2023-09-24
Options: Aston Martin Aramco Mercedes, Ferrari, Mercedes, Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT, Another team
Answer: Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT
Question: Will North Korea successfully put a satellite into orbit before 23 September 2023?
In May 2023, North Korea failed in an attempt to launch a spy satellite, but plans to try again (NPR, AP). North Korea has previously put at least two satellites into orbit (38 North). The purpose and operability of a satellite put into orbit is immaterial.
Tags: Technology, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-06-23; closed: 2023-09-23
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the Bank of England's Bank Rate at close of business on 21 September 2023?
The UK central bank, the Bank of England, has been increasing interest rates to combat inflation (Bank of England, US News & World Report). The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets the Bank Rate, which has risen from 3.50% to start 2023 to 4.50% as of 7 June 2023 (Bank of England - Bank Rate, Bank of England - May 2023 MPC Minutes). The MPC is scheduled to announce rate decisions on 22 June 2023, 3 August 2023, and 21 September 2023 (Bank of England - MPC Schedule).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-06-09; closed: 2023-09-21
Options: Lower than 4.50%, 4.50% or higher, but lower than 4.75%, 4.75% or higher, but lower than 5.00%, 5.00% or higher, but lower than 5.25%, 5.25% or higher, but lower than 5.50%, 5.50% or higher
Answer: 5.25% or higher, but lower than 5.50%
Question: At close of business on 20 September 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 26 July 2023?
The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its September meeting is scheduled for 19-20 September 2023.
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-05-05; closed: 2023-09-20
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: Before 1 January 2024, how many of the "Big Three" US automakers will have a work stoppage (either a strike or a lockout) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union?
In July 2023, the UAW (officially the "International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America") and the "Big Three" US automakers (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, which includes Chrysler) kicked off negotiations on new collective bargaining agreements (CNBC). The current contracts are set to expire on 14 September 2023, and both sides are preparing for a potentially contentious fight (CNN). A work stoppage need not include all of an automaker's employees represented by the UAW to count, but a strike must have been approved by the UAW International Executive Board and/or International President per Article 50 of the UAW constitution (UAW, GM Authority, Key Differences). The question would close early upon the ratification of new collective bargaining agreements with all three automakers.
Tags: Business, Society
Question opened: 2023-08-11; closed: 2023-09-15
Options: 0, 1, 2, 3
Answer: 3
Question: Will the US House of Representatives officially open an impeachment inquiry into President Biden before 1 January 2024?
House Republicans are reportedly considering opening an impeachment inquiry into President Biden and corruption claims related to family business dealings (The Hill, Politico, CNN). For the purposes of this question, "officially open" means either 1) a vote by the full House to begin an impeachment inquiry, or 2) a public announcement by the Speaker of the House of Representatives that an impeachment inquiry has begun or is beginning (Constitution Center, Congressional Research Service).
Tags: Society, Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics
Question opened: 2023-09-08; closed: 2023-09-12
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: How many total federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US in July 2023 and August 2023?
Firearm sales in the US have fallen from record highs during the peak of the pandemic as some states revise gun control laws (US News & World Report, CNBC, ABC News, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2023 and the outcome determined using data for July 2023 and August 2023 as reported by the FBI once August 2023 data are first available, expected in September 2023 (FBI.gov). In July 2022 and August 2022, the FBI reported a total of 4,922,464 firearm background checks.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Business, Society, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-06-09; closed: 2023-09-01
Options: Fewer than 4,500,000, Between 4,500,000 and 4,900,000, inclusive, More than 4,900,000 but fewer than 5,300,000, Between 5,300,000 and 5,700,000, inclusive, More than 5,700,000 but fewer than 6,100,000, 6,100,000 or more
Answer: Fewer than 4,500,000
Question: Will the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) vote to approve a new collective bargaining agreement with the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) before 1 October 2023?
Dock workers represented by the ILWU have been working without a contract since July 2022, and work stoppages at some West Coast ports have some looking to the White House to intervene (US News & World Report, CNBC, Port Technology). The question would close upon the vote by the union members approving the new collective bargaining agreement.
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, US Politics
Question opened: 2023-06-09; closed: 2023-08-24
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Afghanistan before 1 September 2023?
Conflict, drought, and international isolation have left millions in Afghanistan facing potential famine (Economist, World Food Program, AP, IPC). For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.
Tags: Society, Health, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2022-12-30; closed: 2023-09-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2023?
The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will continue its monetary policy tightening despite risks to the US labor market (Economist, AP, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics when first released, expected in September 2023 (BLS).
Tags: Business, Finance, Economic Indicators, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-01-27; closed: 2023-09-01
Options: Lower than 3.5%, 3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.5%, 4.5% or higher, but lower than 5.5%, 5.5% or higher, but lower than 6.5%, 6.5% or higher, but lower than 7.5%, 7.5% or higher
Answer: 3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.5%
Question: Will a crewed Boeing Starliner spacecraft successfully dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 September 2023?
After a series of delays, Boeing's Starliner spacecraft has been scheduled for its first launch with a crew aboard for July 2023 (Space.com).
Tags: Business, Technology
Question opened: 2023-05-26; closed: 2023-09-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What percentage of 2024 Democratic presidential nomination support will Joe Biden have as of 31 August 2023, according to RealClearPolitics?
The question will be suspended on 30 August 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by RealClearPolitics' RCP Poll Average for the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClearPolitics). The "RCP Average" as displayed will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 August 2023. The range of days under "Date" will be immaterial.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-06-02; closed: 2023-08-31
Options: Less than 50.0%, Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive, More than 55.0% but less than 60.0%, Between 60.0% and 65.0%, inclusive, More than 65.0% but less than 70.0%, 70.0% or more
Answer: More than 65.0% but less than 70.0%
Question: What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 25 August 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?
The question will be suspended on 24 August 2023 and the outcome determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 9 May 2023, Biden's approval rating was 42.5%. The data for 25 August 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 29 August 2023.
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2023-05-12; closed: 2023-08-25
Options: Lower than 36.0%, Between 36.0% and 39.0%, inclusive, Higher than 39.0% but lower than 42.0%, Between 42.0% and 45.0%, inclusive, Higher than 45.0% but lower than 48.0%, 48.0% or higher
Answer: Higher than 39.0% but lower than 42.0%
Question: When will Yevgeny Prigozhin either cease to be the leader of the Wagner Group or flee Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus?
Prigozhin is the leader of the Private Military Company Wagner Group, generally known as the Wagner Group, a Russian organization that provides mercenary services to the Russian government and is currently involved in the war in Ukraine (Guardian, Atlantic). Prigozhin has been very public with complaints about Russia's prosecution of the war in Ukraine and at times critical of Russian President Vladimir Putin (US News & World Report, CBS News, Moscow Times). If the Wagner Group is dissolved and/or absorbed into the Russian armed forces, it will be deemed to have ceased to exist and would therefore have no leader. Whether or not Prigozhin has either ceased to be the leader of the Wagner Group or fled Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus will be determined using credible open source media reporting.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Leader Entry/Exit, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-06-09; closed: 2023-08-23
Options: Before 9 July 2023, Between 9 July 2023 and 8 September 2023, Between 9 September 2023 and 8 December 2023, Not before 9 December 2023
Answer: Between 9 July 2023 and 8 September 2023
Question: Will there be a new tweet on former President Donald Trump's Twitter account, @realdonaldtrump, before 1 December 2023?
Elon Musk announced that Trump's Twitter account was reactivated after a poll held on the site, but Trump not tweeted since 2021 (CNBC, Twitter). Retweets would not count, and a tweet that is immediately deleted or removed would count so long as there is credible reporting that the tweet occurred. Claims that a tweet was the result of a hack would be immaterial.
Tags: Technology, US Politics
Question opened: 2023-03-31; closed: 2023-08-25
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Will Vladimir Putin attend the 2023 BRICS Summit in South Africa?
South Africa is scheduled to host the 15th BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) Summit in August 2023 (South African Government, Voice of America). Russian President Vladimir Putin's expected attendance has been complicated by the issuance of a warrant for his arrest by the International Criminal Court, which obliges South Africa to arrest Putin should he enter the country (Vice, US News & World Report, Parliamentarians for Global Action). Putin would have to be physically present at the summit to count. The question would close early upon the completion of the summit in South Africa. The question would close "No" upon either the official canceling of the summit for the 2023 calendar year or official relocation of the summit outside of South Africa.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-03-24; closed: 2023-08-22
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: How many Republican presidential candidates will participate in person for the first Republican primary debate in 2023?
The Republican National Committee has announced the first Republican presidential primary debate with new, minimum standards for participation (CBS News, Politico). The first Republican presidential primary debate is scheduled for 23 August 2023 in Milwaukee, WI, with another planned for 24 August 2023 should enough candidates qualify (GOP.com). For the purposes of this question, a split between two or more days would be considered a single debate. If the debate is rescheduled for another date in 2023, then the close date will be rescheduled accordingly. If there is no Republican primary debate in 2023, the question will be voided.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-06-16; closed: 2023-08-23
Options: 4 or fewer, 5 or 6, 7 or 8, 9 or 10, 11 or 12, 13 or more
Answer: 7 or 8
Question: When will Teamsters union workers vote to approve a new collective bargaining agreement with United Parcel Service (UPS)?
The current contract for unionized workers at UPS expires on 31 July 2023, with workers having already approved a strike if a new deal isn't reached (The Hill, CNN, CBS News). The question would close upon the vote by the union members approving the new collective bargaining agreement.
Tags: Business, Society
Question opened: 2023-07-07; closed: 2023-08-22
Options: Before 1 August 2023, Between 1 August 2023 and 15 August 2023, Between 16 August 2023 and 31 August 2023, Between 1 September 2023 and 15 September 2023, Not before 16 September 2023
Answer: Between 16 August 2023 and 31 August 2023
Question: Which candidate will win the 2023 Guatemalan presidential election?
Guatemala has seen a volatile presidential election campaign in 2023, with one candidate who was leading in the polls disqualified in May 2023 (ABC News, AP). Guatemala's next presidential election is scheduled for 25 June 2023, with an expected runoff scheduled for 20 August 2023 if needed (Guatemala Supreme Electoral Tribunal, Americas Society/Council of the Americas). "Another outcome" would include the Supreme Electoral Tribunal declaring the election null and void (Guatemala Electoral Law and Political Parties [in Spanish]).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-06-23; closed: 2023-08-20
Options: Edmond Mulet, Zury Ríos Sosa, Sandra Torres, Someone else, Another outcome
Answer: Someone else
Question: Which country will win the 2023 Women's FIFA World Cup?
The 2023 Women's FIFA World Cup is scheduled to take place in Australia and New Zealand from 20 July 2023 to 20 August 2023 (FIFA Women’s World Cup 2023). Thirty-two teams will qualify to compete (FIFA - Match Schedule).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-02-10; closed: 2023-08-20
Options: Australia, England, France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, United States, Another team
Answer: Spain
Question: When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?
While there have been talks between Ukraine and Russia since the latter's invasion of the country, the war continues (US News & World Report, Voice of America). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-12-02; closed: 2023-08-19
Options: Before 26 February 2023, Between 26 February 2023 and 23 May 2023, Between 24 May 2023 and 18 August 2023, Not before 19 August 2023
Answer: Not before 19 August 2023
Question: Will Miami rank among the top 7 US metro areas by total venture capital (VC) invested in the first half of 2023?
The city of Miami, Florida, is in a race with other mid-sized US cities to attract VC investment (Nonrival, see first chart). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor data as reported by Nonrival (PitchBook, Nonrival - Substack).
Tags: Business, Finance
Question opened: 2022-12-09; closed: 2023-07-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sign or announce an agreement to end their current conflict in Sudan?
Fighting began between the SAF and RSF on 15 April 2023 and has raised fears of both a civil war and humanitarian catastrophes (CNN, Politico, Al Jazeera). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both the SAF and RSF to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Sudan. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-05-05; closed: 2023-08-15
Options: Before 15 May 2023, Between 15 May 2023 and 31 May 2023, Between 1 June 2023 and 30 June 2023, Between 1 July 2023 and 14 August 2023, Not before 15 August 2023
Answer: Not before 15 August 2023
Question: When will the Writers Guild of America (WGA) vote to end its strike?
The WGA's contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, a trade group that represents studios and streamers, expired on 1 May 2023 and triggered a strike by writers (WGA, ABC7, Deadline). The last WGA strike ended in 2008 after union members voted to return to work after striking for 100 days (NBC News). The question would close upon the vote to end the strike irrespective of when the strike would actually end.
Tags: Business, Society, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-05-05; closed: 2023-08-15
Options: Before 15 May 2023, Between 15 May 2023 and 31 May 2023, Between 1 June 2023 and 30 June 2023, Between 1 July 2023 and 14 August 2023, Not before 15 August 2023
Answer: Not before 15 August 2023