jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: What will be the closing value of the NYSE FANG+ Index on 3 November 2023?
Shares of technology companies lost trillions of dollars in value in 2022 (MarketWatch). The NYSE FANG+ Index includes ten of the largest tech companies traded in the US (Intercontinental Exchange). The outcome will be determined using data from S&P as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance).
Tags: Business, Technology, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2023-01-06; closed: 2023-11-03
Options: Less than 3,200, Between 3,200 and 3,700, inclusive, More than 3,700 but less than 4,100, Between 4,100 and 4,500, inclusive, More than 4,500 but less than 4,900, Between 4,900 and 5,400, inclusive, More than 5,400
Answer: More than 5,400
Question: Will the jury find Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of any federal crime in his trial that began on 3 October 2023?
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried's federal trial in the Southern District of New York began on 3 October 2023, in which he is facing seven criminal charges (NPR, Axios, CNN). A guilty or no contest plea without a verdict from the jury would not count. If the judge declares a mistrial or dismisses the charges, the question would close "No." The granting of a motion for a judgment of acquittal after the jury reaches a verdict would be immaterial, and appeals and litigation subsequent to a trial are immaterial (Cornell). If the trial is still underway as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.
Tags: Business, Finance, Technology, Society
Question opened: 2023-10-06; closed: 2023-11-02
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Which team will win the 2023 MLB World Series?
The 2023 Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season is scheduled to end on 1 October 2023, with the playoffs to follow (CBS Sports, Fansided).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-07-21; closed: 2023-11-02
Options: Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Another team
Answer: Texas Rangers
Question: At close of business on 1 November 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 20 September 2023?
The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its October/November meeting is scheduled for 31 October - 1 November 2023.
Tags: Business, Economic Policy, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-06-16; closed: 2023-11-01
Options: Lower, Same, Higher
Answer: Same
Question: Will territory in any Ukrainian oblast that borders Belarus cease to be under Ukrainian control before 1 November 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
Fears remain that Russia may again invade the north of Ukraine via a renuclearized Belarus that is now providing sanctuary to the Wagner Group (AP, Al-Arabiya, Politico, Belta). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The Ukrainian oblasts that border Belarus are Chernihiv, Kyiv, Rivne, Volyn, and Zhytomyr, which you can identify by zooming in on the ISW map application. For the purposes of this question, "Claimed Russian Control" would not count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control, but "Assessed Russian Advance" and "Assessed Russian Control" would count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control.
Tags: Society, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-06-30; closed: 2023-11-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Ukraine retake control of either the Zaporizhzhia or Kherson Oblast before 1 November 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
While Russia claimed to annex both the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts along with Donetsk and Luhansk, Ukraine still controls parts of each (AP). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW).
Tags: Society, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-04-21; closed: 2023-11-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will all work stoppages (either strikes or lockouts) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and the "Big Three" US automakers cease before 16 November 2023?
In September 2023, the UAW (officially the "International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America") began targeted strikes against the "Big Three" US automakers (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, which includes Chrysler) after the expiration of their respective collective bargaining agreements (US News & World Report, Axios, Key Differences).
Tags: Business, Society
Question opened: 2023-10-11; closed: 2023-10-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: When will all work stoppages (either strikes or lockouts) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and the "Big Three" US automakers cease?
In September 2023, the UAW (officially the "International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America") began targeted strikes against the "Big Three" US automakers (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, which includes Chrysler) after the expiration of their respective collective bargaining agreements (NBC News, CNBC, Key Differences).
Tags: Business, Society
Question opened: 2023-09-22; closed: 2023-10-30
Options: Before 29 September 2023, Between 29 September 2023 and 12 October 2023, Between 13 October 2023 and 9 November 2023, Between 10 November 2023 and 21 December 2023, Not before 22 December 2023
Answer: Between 13 October 2023 and 9 November 2023
Question: To which political party will the prime minister elected after the next Pakistani general election belong?
The next general election for Pakistan's National Assembly is due to be held no later than October 2023, but could be held sooner (NPR, Al Jazeera, Radio Pakistan). The Prime Minister is elected by the National Assembly within 21 days following the day of the general election (Pakistan Constitution, see Article 91). The question will be suspended the day before the general election once the general election date is set. The appointment of a caretaker prime minister would not count.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2022-10-14; closed: 2023-10-31
Options: Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) [PML(N)], Pakistan Peoples Party [PPP], Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf [PTI], Another party or no party, There will not be a general election held before 31 October 2023 or a prime minister will not be elected within 24 days of the general election
Answer: There will not be a general election held before 31 October 2023 or a prime minister will not be elected within 24 days of the general election
Question: Will the United States publicly acknowledge that it has executed a military strike within the territory of the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, or the West Bank before 30 October 2023?
After Hamas' attack in southern Israel in early October 2023, the US has announced that it is sending naval forces to the Eastern Mediterranean (AP, Defense.gov). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on or over pertinent territory. A cyberattack alone would not count, and a strike in or over Gazan or Lebanese airspace or territorial waters would count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, US Politics, Security and Conflict, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-10-08; closed: 2023-10-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Which team will win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?
The 2023 Rugby World Cup final is scheduled for 28 October 2023 in Saint-Denis, France (Rugby World Cup, Planet Rugby, Telegraph).
Tags: Business, Sports, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-08-11; closed: 2023-10-28
Options: Australia, England, France, Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa, Another team
Answer: South Africa
Question: When will BLS International resume Indian visa services for Canadians in Canada?
After Canada accused India of involvement in the June 2023 death of a Sikh separatist leader in Vancouver, BLS International, the agency that processes visa requests for India, announced, "Important notice from Indian Mission: Due to operational reasons, with effect from 21 September 2023, Indian visa services have been suspended till further notice" (BLS International, AP, CBC, CIC News). Resumption for special circumstances (e.g., deaths in a family, medical emergencies) alone would not count.
Tags: Business, Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-10-06; closed: 2023-10-26
Options: Before 20 October 2023, Between 20 October 2023 and 9 November 2023, Between 10 November 2023 and 7 December 2023, Between 8 December 2023 and 11 January 2024, Not before 12 January 2024
Answer: Between 20 October 2023 and 9 November 2023
Question: What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023?
Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy in 2023 (CBS News, CNBC, AP). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in October 2023 (FRED, BEA - Release Schedule).
Tags: Business, Finance, Society, Economic Policy, Economic Indicators, US Politics, US Policy
Question opened: 2023-02-24; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Lower by more than 3.0%, Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive, Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%, Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive, Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%, Higher by 3.0% or more
Answer: Higher by 3.0% or more
Question: Will Chinese property developer Country Garden default on any bond payments before 1 January 2024?
Country Garden Holdings Company Limited, generally referred to simply as Country Garden, is one of the few major property developers in China to have not defaulted on debt, but it has many bond payments due in the near term (US News & World Report, CNN, Yahoo Finance). The use of "grace periods" to delay payment and creditor-approved bond restructuring would not count (Investopedia - Grace Period). Default by its business segments or wholly-owned subsidiaries (e.g., Country Garden Real Estate) would count.
Tags: Business, Finance, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-09-15; closed: 2023-10-18
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?
After the House of Representatives voted to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy as Speaker, the race is on to pick his replacement in the closely divided body (NBC News, BBC). While the Speaker of the House has always been a member of the House of Representatives, such is not required by the Constitution (Congressional Research Service). If no new Speaker has been elected as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-10-04; closed: 2023-10-25
Options: Rep. Tom Emmer (MN), Rep. Garret Graves (LA), Rep. Jim Jordan (OH), Rep. Patrick McHenry (NC), Rep. Steve Scalise (LA), Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY), Another current Republican Representative, Someone else
Answer: Another current Republican Representative
Question: Will the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives be elected with votes from both Republicans and Democrats?
Republicans in the House of Representatives are looking at various paths forward to elect a new Speaker of the House (The Hill, CNN). Only one or more representatives from each party must vote for the winner of next Speaker to count. If no new Speaker has been elected as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, US Politics, Elections and Referenda
Question opened: 2023-10-16; closed: 2023-10-25
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: To which political party will the next prime minister of Slovakia belong after the 2023 parliamentary elections?
As Slovaks prepare to go to the polls in an early election, there are concerns that pro-Russian leaders may win control of the country's parliament, the National Council (Politico, Slovak Spectator, Politico - Slovakia Poll of Polls, France 24). The next general election is scheduled for 30 September 2023 (AP). The question will be suspended on 29 September 2022 and the outcome determined once a new prime minister has been appointed by the president of Slovakia (Slovak Constitution, see Article 102(1)(g)). If no new prime minister has been appointed and a new election is called, the question would close "None of the above." The appointment of a new caretaker prime minister would not count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Leader Entry/Exit, Security and Conflict, Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-06-30; closed: 2023-09-30
Options: Direction - Slovak Social Democracy (Smer – sociálna demokracia), Progressive Slovakia (Progresívne Slovensko), Voice - Social Democracy (HLAS - sociálna demokracia), None of the above
Answer: Direction - Slovak Social Democracy (Smer – sociálna demokracia)
Question: In the IEA's total hydrogen demand estimates for 2030, will the percentage difference between its Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) be less in the 2023 WEO report compared to the 2022 WEO report?
The International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes and updates various data estimating, among other things, total hydrogen demand in the future in its World Energy Outlook (WEO) report (IEA WEO). The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) shows the trajectory implied by today's policy settings, and the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) assumes that all aspirational targets announced by governments are met on time and in full, including their long‐term net zero and energy access goals (WEO 2022, see page 20). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and outcome determined using 2023 WEO total hydrogen demand data for both STEPS and APS in 2030, expected sometime in October 2023 (WEO 2023). The figure for STEPS will be divided by the figure for APS. In the 2022 WEO, total hydrogen demand in 2030 for STEPS was 13,438 petajoules and for APS was 15,064 petajoules, meaning that STEPS was 89.20605% of APS, or lower by 10.79395% (WEO 2022, see Table A.26 on page 460). The data may also be downloaded in an XLSX file (WEO 2022 - Free Dataset, download "Tables for scenario projections (Annex A)" and navigate to the "Hydrogen demand (PJ) sheet). If the percentage difference in the data for 2030 in the 2023 WEO is less than 10.79395%, then the question will close "Yes."
Tags: Business, Technology, Society, Environment, US Politics, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-05-16; closed: 2023-10-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: Yes
Question: What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening wide release weekend for Killers of the Flower Moon, according to Box Office Mojo?
Killers of the Flower Moon is an Apple-produced historical drama directed by Martin Scorsese being released in theaters before becoming available for streaming on Apple TV+ (IMDb). The question will be suspended on 21 October 2023 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the weekend of 20-22 October 2023 (Box Office Mojo, see "Domestic Weekend"). The film is scheduled to be released on 20 October 2023 (Hollywood Reporter).
Tags: Business, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-10-11; closed: 2023-10-22
Options: Less than $16 million, Between $16 million and $24 million, inclusive, More than $24 million but less than $32 million, Between $32 million and $40 million, inclusive, More than $40 million but less than $48 million, Between $48 million and $56 million, inclusive, More than $56 million
Answer: Between $16 million and $24 million, inclusive
Question: What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening wide release weekend for Killers of the Flower Moon, according to Box Office Mojo?
Killers of the Flower Moon is an Apple-produced historical drama directed by Martin Scorsese being released in theaters before becoming available for streaming on Apple TV+ (IMDb). The question will be suspended on 20 October 2023 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the weekend of 20-22 October 2023 (Box Office Mojo, see "Domestic Weekend"). The film is scheduled to be released in some theaters on 6 October 2023, with the "wide" release scheduled for 20 October 2023 (CNN).
Tags: Business, Entertainment
Question opened: 2023-07-07; closed: 2023-10-21
Options: Less than $20 million, Between $20 million and $40 million, inclusive, More than $40 million but less than $60 million, Between $60 million and $80 million, inclusive, More than $80 million but less than $100 million, $100 million or more
Answer: Between $20 million and $40 million, inclusive
Question: What will be the annual real GDP percentage growth rate for the Emirate of Dubai in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the first quarter of 2022?
The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using "Growth Rate %" data as first reported by the Dubai Statistics Center (Dubai Statistics Center - National Accounts, see "Constant Prices" reports). The figure in the PDF file will be used for resolution. In the first quarter of 2022, the real GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2022 as compared to the first quarter of 2021 was 5.88% (Gross Domestic Product at Constant Prices First Quarter - Emirate of Dubai 2022).
Tags: Business, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2022-11-25; closed: 2023-04-01
Options: Lower by more than 3.00%, Lower by between 0.00% and 3.00%, inclusive, Higher by more than 0.00% but less than 3.00%, Higher by between 3.00% and 6.00%, inclusive, Higher by more than 6.00%
Answer: Higher by more than 0.00% but less than 3.00%
Question: Will the government of Belarus publicly announce or acknowledge that its armed forces have engaged in armed fighting in Ukraine before 21 October 2023?
While Belarus has not officially engaged in fighting in Ukraine, there are concerns that it could be drawn into the fighting (CNN, European Leadership Network, Al Jazeera). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The participation and the announcement/acknowledgement would both have to occur during the question's open period to count. Acknowledging that members of the Belarusian armed forces may have volunteered to fight under Russian or Ukrainian command in a Russian or Ukrainian military unit would not count. Members of the Belarusian armed forces being placed under Russian military command by the Belarusian government and the government of Belarus acknowledging that those Belarusian troops have engaged in fighting in Ukraine would count.
Tags: Society, Open, Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2023-04-21; closed: 2023-10-21
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will the government of Belarus publicly announce or acknowledge that its armed forces have engaged in armed fighting in Ukraine before 21 October 2023?
While Belarus has not officially engaged in fighting in Ukraine, there are concerns that it could be drawn into the fighting (US News & World Report, PBS, BBC). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The participation and the announcement/acknowledgement would both have to occur during the question's open period to count. Acknowledging that members of the Belarusian armed forces may have volunteered to fight under Russian or Ukrainian command in a Russian or Ukrainian military unit would not count. Members of the Belarusian armed forces being placed under Russian military command by the Belarusian government and the government of Belarus acknowledging that those Belarusian troops have engaged in fighting in Ukraine would count.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2023-09-11; closed: 2023-10-21
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Investment Scams in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?
Fraud against older Americans has been increasing (WSB-TV). The question will be suspended on 10 February 2023 and the outcome determined using 2022 data as reported in the FTC's 2022-2023 Protecting Older Consumers report, expected in October 2023 (FTC - Press Release). In the 2021-2022 report released in October 2022, the FTC reported that aggregate reported losses by older adults due to Investment Scams totaled $147 million in 2021 (Protecting Older Consumers 2021-2022, see page 33 in the file). Older reports are also available online (Protecting Older Consumers 2017-2018, Protecting Older Consumers 2018-2019, Protecting Older Consumers 2019-2020, Protecting Older Consumers 2020-2021).Seniors Against Fraud and Exploitation (SAFE) is a charitable and public service organization that seeks to eliminate the financial exploitation of older adults in all its forms, using statistical analysis, forecasting, and open source intelligence. Click here to follow them on Twitter.
Tags: Society
Question opened: 2022-11-18; closed: 2023-02-11
Options: Less than $147 million, Between $147 million and $304 million, inclusive, More than $304 million but less than $460 million, $460 million or more
Answer: More than $304 million but less than $460 million
Question: What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Business Imposters in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?
Seniors Against Fraud and Exploitation (SAFE) is a charitable and public service organization that seeks to eliminate the financial exploitation of older adults in all its forms, using statistical analysis, forecasting, and open source intelligence. Click here to follow them on Twitter.
Tags: Society, Fraud against older Americans has been increasing (WSB-TV). The question will be suspended on 10 February 2023 and the outcome determined using 2022 data as reported in the FTC's 2022-2023 Protecting Older Consumers report, expected in October 2023 (FTC - Press Release). In the 2021-2022 report released in October 2022, the FTC reported that aggregate reported losses by older adults due to Business Imposters totaled $151 million in 2021 (Protecting Older Consumers 2021-2022, see page 33 in the file). Older reports are also available online (Protecting Older Consumers 2017-2018, Protecting Older Consumers 2018-2019, Protecting Older Consumers 2019-2020, Protecting Older Consumers 2020-2021).
Question opened: 2022-11-18; closed: 2023-02-11
Options: Less than $151 million, Between $151 million and $252 million, inclusive, More than $252 million but less than $353 million, $353 million or more
Answer: More than $252 million but less than $353 million