jijivski/goodjudge huggingface dataset:
Question: Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-09-28; closed: 2019-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-09-28; closed: 2019-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-09-28; closed: 2019-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-09-28; closed: 2019-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-09-28; closed: 2019-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?
The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-09-28; closed: 2019-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 1 October 2018 and 31 December 2019, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?
Tesla's Model 3 deliveries continue to be an object of attention for industry observers (Tesla, Forbes, The Los Angeles Times).
Tags: Technology, US Policy
Question opened: 2018-11-16; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: 280,000 or less, More than 280,000 but less than 330,000, Between 330,000 and 380,000, inclusive, More than 380,000 but less than 430,000, 430,000 or more
Answer: Between 330,000 and 380,000, inclusive
Question: Before 1 January 2020, will the U.S. President sign legislation increasing the number of exemptions for autonomous vehicles allowed per manufacturer by the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards?
A motor vehicle manufacturer may petition the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for an exemption for self-driving vehicles without human controls (The Fuse, Cornell Law). There is legislation under consideration that would increase the number of exemptions U.S. regulators are able to grant per manufacturer (S.1885 AV START Act, H.R.3388 - SELF DRIVE Act). Proponents say it would liberate innovation for self-driving vehicles while opponents say that it would place consumers under undue risk (Consumer Reports, Tom's Hardware, Competitive Enterprise Institute).
Tags: Technology, US Policy
Question opened: 2018-11-16; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Serbia and Kosovo reach a comprehensive normalization agreement  before 1 January 2020?
The EU is pushing Serbia to reach a comprehensive normalization agreement with Kosovo by the end of 2019 (European Union External Action, Reuters, Radio Free Europe). The lack of progress on a normalization agreement remains a critical obstacle to EU accession (Prishtina Insight), which Serbia continues to seek despite it's ally Russia's reservations about the expansion process (Deutsche Welle).
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2018-04-18; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2020, will a NATO member formally invoke Article 4 or Article 5 of the Washington Treaty in response to actions taken by Russia?
Article 4 has been invoked a few times in the history of NATO (NATO, Radio Free Europe). Article 5 has been invoked just once (NATO, NY Times). If Article 4 or Article 5 is invoked for an event in which the perpetrator is initially unknown and NATO subsequently attributes that event to Russia, the question will close retroactively with the end date of the invocation.
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2018-04-11; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2020, will any change be made to the Russian Constitution that would allow Vladimir Putin to remain in a leadership role after his current term?
The Russian Constitution limits presidents to two consecutive terms, but there has been speculation that future constitutional changes could allow Putin to remain in power past 2024 (Associated Press, NY Times). Examples of constitutional changes that could count include, but are not limited to, revised term limits or the creation of a new position or government body.
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2018-04-11; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2020, will Velodyne announce the release of a LiDAR unit with a maximum range of 400 meters or more?
LiDAR, short for "light radar", has been called "the most important piece of hardware in the race to unlock self-driving cars for everybody" (Wired, Ars Technica, Design News). Velodyne is a leading company in the development of this type of technology. Its VLS-128, or Alpha Puck, released in 2017, has a maximum range of 300 meters (The Verge, News Atlas). Outcome will be determined by Velodyne's NewsRoom. The actual release of the LiDAR unit is not required for a yes resolution.
Tags: Technology
Question opened: 2019-03-08; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 4 October 2019 and 31 December 2019, will anti-government protests in Hong Kong result in three or more fatalities?
Large anti-government protests, which began in June over a proposed extradition bill, have continued in 2019 (Time, NY Times, The Atlantic). Fatalities must all occur during the question's duration to qualify.
Tags: Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2019-10-04; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will legislation eliminating the unit limit per manufacturer for the U.S. federal electric vehicle tax credit become law before 1 January 2020?
The Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit applies to the first 200,000 units sold by a manufacturer (The IRS, Cornell Law). Tesla and GM each reached the unit limit in 2018 and are lobbying for the law to be changed (CNBC, Electrek).
Tags: Technology, US Policy
Question opened: 2019-01-18; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2020, will the UK and the EU adopt an agreement on which customs territory Northern Ireland will be located in after the end of any Brexit transition period?
The status of Northern Ireland after the planned Brexit has become a focal point of negotiations between the UK and the EU (BBC, European Commission). Adoption of a temporary (e.g., "backstop") or a permanent solution will count.
Tags: Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2018-12-21; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: No, Yes, the United Kingdom's customs territory only, Yes, the European Union's customs territory only, Yes, a single customs territory that includes both the European Union and the United Kingdom
Answer: No
Question: Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2020?
A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, or law enforcement of either side. China has used the People's Liberation Army, Navy, and Air Force, militia, and law enforcement to further its claims in both the South and East China Seas, and some once posed as fishermen (Quartz, ChinaPower Project, The Diplomat, SCMP).
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-07; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2020, will General Motors launch a ride-hailing service open to the public in the U.S. which uses autonomous vehicles?
General Motors and its subsidiary Cruise Automation have announced intentions to launch a ride-hailing service somewhere in the U.S. in 2019 (GM Authority). GM plans to use a version of the Chevy Bolt built without a steering wheel for the service (Detroit News, Driven, IEEE Spectrum). However, technical and regulatory hurdles remain (Reuters, San Francisco Chronicle).  A service which requires rider prescreening or registration before use will count. A service that operates along a fixed route will not count.
Tags: Technology
Question opened: 2018-12-14; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, using only vehicles with steering wheels, Yes, using only vehicles without steering wheels, Yes, using at least some vehicles without steering wheels, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2020, will the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) vote in favor of granting a waiver petition [GN Docket No. 18-357] to allow for the further deployment of Cellular Vehicle-to-Everything (C-V2X) technology?
In November 2018, trade group 5G Automotive Association (5GAA) filed a petition with the FCC to waive certain restrictions related to the deployment of C-V2X communications technology, GN Docket No. 18-357 (FCC, 5GAA). Various businesses and organizations have taken sides while the FCC reviews the waiver petition (Fierce Wireless, FCC, Fierce Wireless, New Mobility). The granting of this waiver petition is understood to be of importance in the "DSRC vs. C-V2X standards battle" (Innovation Destination, All About Circuits, Viodi). Only a vote in favor of granting waiver petition GN Docket No. 18-357, in whole or in part, would count toward a Yes resolution. Should the FCC not make a decision before 31 December 2019, the question will close No.
Tags: Technology
Question opened: 2019-06-21; closed: 2019-12-31
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2020, will Tesla release an Autopilot feature designed to navigate traffic lights?
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has expressed interest in adding a feature to navigate city streets, including traffic lights (Ars Technica, The Drive).
Tags: Technology
Question opened: 2019-01-18; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: What will be the price of regular gasoline in the U.S. per gallon on 30 December 2019?
Gas prices are seen as a driver for the adoption of electric vehicles (Auto Finance News). Outcome will be determined by the U.S. Regular Gasoline price reported by the Energy Information Administration.
Tags: Finance, Technology, Economic Indicators
Question opened: 2019-04-26; closed: 2019-12-30
Options: Less than $2.400, Between $2.400 and $2.650, inclusive, More than $2.650 but less than $2.900, Between $2.900 and $3.150, inclusive, More than $3.150
Answer: Between $2.400 and $2.650, inclusive
Question: Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 January 2020?
UK prime minister Boris Johnson faces a number of leadership challenges as he attempts to navigate Brexit (BBC, BBC, BBC).
Tags: Leader Entry/Exit, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2019-10-02; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, someone from the Conservative Party, Yes, someone from the Labour Party, Yes, someone from a party other than the Conservative or Labour Parties, No
Answer: No
Question: Between 5 July 2019 and 31 December 2019, will McDonald's announce that it will offer an alternative protein vegetarian burger in the United States?
As competitors have introduced vegetarian and vegan burgers in the United States, and McDonald's itself has done so in Europe, there is growing interest in developments for the U.S. market (McDonalds, Business Insider, CNBC, YouTube, Entrepreneur, Fortune, Mercury News, Readers Digest).
Tags: Health, Environment
Question opened: 2019-07-05; closed: 2019-12-30
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2020, will either SpaceX or Boeing launch its first crewed space mission?
For nearly a decade commercial enterprises have competed to partner with NASA, and both SpaceX and Boeing have been expected to be certified for their first crewed space missions in 2019 (NASA, CNET, Reuters).
Tags: Technology, Society
Question opened: 2019-02-22; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: No, Yes, only SpaceX, Yes, only Boeing, Yes, both SpaceX and Boeing
Answer: No
Question: Before 1 January 2020, will any EU member state besides the UK set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone?
The EU continues to face a number of challenges, including populism and debt crises in a number of member states (The Telegraph, The London School of Economics, Ekathimerini, Marketwatch). The referendum date is immaterial to the question.
Tags: Foreign Policy, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2019-01-04; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Ruth Bader Ginsburg cease to be an Associate Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court before 1 January 2020?
Ruth Bader Ginsburg was appointed to the Supreme Court in 1993, and has expressed her intent to remain on the Court through at least 2020 (CNN).
Tags: Society, US Politics
Question opened: 2019-01-04; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 January 2020?
After multiple ICBM launches in 2017, North Korea's missile program has been comparatively quiet throughout 2018 (CNN).
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-07; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Mick Mulvaney cease to be White House Chief of Staff before 1 January 2020?
In December 2018, President Trump announced that Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney would replace, in an acting capacity, outgoing Chief of Staff John Kelly (CNN). For the purposes of this question, Mulvaney will be considered the Chief of Staff whether in a permanent or acting capacity (Politico).
Tags: US Politics
Question opened: 2019-01-18; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: When will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela?
President Maduro faces an ongoing political and economic crisis in Venezuela (Fortune, The Washington Post, Miami Herald).
Tags: Elections and Referenda, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2018-12-21; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Before 1 April 2019, Between 1 April 2019 and 30 June 2019, inclusive, Between 1 July 2019 and 30 September 2019, inclusive, Between 1 October 2019 and 31 December 2019, inclusive, Not before 1 January 2020
Answer: Not before 1 January 2020
Question: Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2020?
Past examples of North Korean nuclear tests include those listed here: BBC, NY Times.
Tags: Security and Conflict
Question opened: 2018-12-07; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No
Question: Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be president of Syria before 1 January 2020?
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad still holds power despite a civil war that has lasted years and caused much destruction (CNN, BBC).
Tags: Foreign Policy, Security and Conflict, Non-US Politics
Question opened: 2019-01-04; closed: 2020-01-01
Options: Yes, No
Answer: No