Israeli strike kills four children on a Gaza beach

GAZA CITY — It is not unusual for militants to launch rockets from sites near my hotel. Israeli missiles and shells have also landed pretty close to al-Deira, an old red stucco inn with a large terrace overlooking the Mediterranean Sea. Just a few hundred yards down the beach is the fishing harbor. I had just returned to the hotel to type up some notes and file inserts on the day’s news when there was a large explosion on the quay at the port, a We could smell the charge. I wondered: Did Hamas just fire a rocket? But it was the sound of an incoming round. We saw a small fisherman’s shack on the quay, churning with gray smoke. Then we saw a gang of kids running from the The staff were yelling, “They’re hurt!” A half-dozen kids made it to the hotel. A young man also reached safety and fainted. He was bleeding from the abdomen. He was scooped up and carried to a taxi by a big, friendly bear of a bellman, room cleaner and night watchman named Mahmoud Abu Zbaidah. Hamada Baker, 13, rests on the terrace of a hotel, after he was hit in the chest by shrapnel from an Israeli missile fired at a port in Gaza. (Islam Abdel Karim for The Washington Post) Two young terrified kids were bleeding and injured, and they were quickly bandaged on the floor of the terrace, where guests usually eat skewers of grilled chicken, suck on water pipes and watch the sun go down. The kids suffered from shrapnel wounds, one to the head, one to the chest. They were treated by translators, hotel staff and journalists, who ran up to their rooms to grab medical kits. On the quay, ambulances took away four more. They either died on the pier or at the hospital, I am not sure. The Gaza Health Ministry tweeted their names a few minutes later: Mohammed Bakr, 9; Ahed Bakr, 10; Zakaria Bakr, 10; and Mohammed Bakr, 11. All cousins, we are told, scrawny fishermen’s kids whom we saw every day, running around on the beach, playing in the waves. Later, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement calling the civilian casualties "a tragic outcome," saying the target of the strike was "Hamas terrorist operatives." They promised that the incident would be investigated but blamed Hamas for its "cynical exploitation of a


This animation of the wondrous monarch butterfly migration was the work of thousands of citizen scientists

in Mexico. Click here for more about the cycle. The route and progress of monarchs is vividly illustrated above, thanks to a project called Journey North funded by the Annenberg Foundation, which makes the map each year using monarch sightings reported by thousands of “citizen scientists.” About half are school children, according to Journey North director Elizabeth Howard. You can participate here on the Annenberg Learner site. Over the past year some 9,100 sightings were reported to Journey North. About 31,000 citizen scientists take part in the program, which tracks, in addition to monarchs, robins, hummingbirds, gray whales and other species. The colors indicate the range of dates of sightings in two-week clusters. A great burst of a new color like the pink dots that explode between May 24 and June 6 represents a surge of first Spring-generation monarchs born to carry on northward, Howard explained. The monarchs have always been a bit of a mystery, less so recently as scientists have begun to understand what guides and sustains them. Recent research unlocked a monarch navigation system that uses both light and the Earth’s magnetic field for guidance. The monarchs lay their eggs on milkweed and the caterpillars feed only on milkweed. Recent studies led by the University of Georgia’s Andrew Davis demonstrated monarch larvae deprived of milkweed for even 24 hours may emerge with somewhat stunted wing-growth. Unfortunately, the supply of milkweed in the United States has declined dramatically due to a number of factors, including crops made resistant to herbicide through genetic modification, which allow the farming industry to use more weed killer in the fields. Among the weeds killed: milkweed. Thousands of Americans are now trying to help by planting milkweed along monarch migratory routes. People are also raising monarchs and releasing them. A sense of urgency pervades the effort. The number of monarchs overwintering in Mexico declined dramatically during the past decade. They occupied about 27 acres in 2003. By 2013, that territory dwindled to 1.65 acres. The decline seems to be accelerating: In 2010, some 201 million monarchs overwintered in Mexico; in 2011, 145 million; in 2012, 60 million; and in 2013, 33 million. Monarch butterflies fly at the El Rosario butterfly sanctuary on a mountain in the Mexican state of Michoacan on November 27, 2013. (Reuters) Clarification: The original version of this story was fuzzy about the monarch generations. The story has been clarified.


Remembering James MacGregor Burns and his leadership wisdom

Historian James MacGregor Burns poses at his home in Williamstown, Mass. in 2007. (AP Photo/Nathaniel Brooks) The leadership world lost a giant this week when James MacGregor Burns died at his home in Williamstown, Mass. on Tuesday. Burns, who was 95, was a political scientist and historian who wrote biographies of presidents and notable books about the American political system. But the subject he was most known for--and which will be his greatest legacy--is his study of leadership. His name graces an endowed position in the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School. A public policy program at the University of Maryland has been named after him. And his 1978 book "Leadership" remains the seminal work in the field of leadership studies. It is from that classic book that the phrase "transformational leadership" originates. CEOs and business gurus use it to describe everything from being a change agent to managing corporate turnarounds. But Burns had a specific meaning for it. He made a distinction between "transactional" leaders--those who take a more short-term approach to achieving goals through negotiations and compromise--and "transforming" ones, who seek to create change by helping followers become better versions of themselves. “Truly great and creative leaders do something more," he is quoted as saying. "They arouse peoples’ hopes and aspirations and expectations, convert social needs into political demands, and rise to higher levels of leadership as they respond to those demands.” At a time when the word "leadership" is thrown about by politicians and corporate managers with little regard for what they actually mean by the term, it's worth remembering Burns' inspiring definition. "The function of leadership is to engage followers, not merely to activate them, to commingle needs and aspirations and goals in a common enterprise, and in the process to make better citizens of both leaders and followers." Leadership is not just a title or a way to describe someone in charge. It is far more than the work of achieving political goals or managing an organization. "Divorced from ethics," Burns wrote, "leadership is reduced to management and politics to mere technique." And it is much more than just power. “Leadership, in short, is power governed by principle, directed toward raising people to their highest levels of personal motive and social morality,” he wrote. “Power is different. Power manipulates people as they are; leadership as they could be. Power manages; leadership mobilizes.


How America’s new sanctions on Russia affect American gun owners

In this July 6, 2007 file photo Mikhail Kalashnikov holds a prototype of his famous AK-47 assault rifle, during a ceremony to mark the 60th anniversary of the worldwide assault rifle's creation in the Russia's Armed Forces Central Museum in Moscow. (AP Photo/Misha Japaridze, File) On Wednesday night, the United States announced a new round of sanctions on Russia. While previous sanctions had largely been aimed at individuals with links to Russian President Vladimir Putin, these new sanctions took aim at key areas of the Russian economy. One particular target may cause some Americans to worry, however. Kalashnikov Concern is the largest firearms producer in Russia. It makes all sorts of weapons, but there's one it is particularly well-known for: the ubiquitous AK-47. But don't worry, American gun owners. If you already own your Kalashnikov, it shouldn't be a problem. Here's what the freshly updated U.S. Treasury Frequently Asked Questions has to say: 374. If I own a Kalashnikov product, is that product blocked by sanctions? Am I able to resell a Kalashnikov product at a gun show or other secondary market? If a U.S. person is in possession of a Kalashnikov Concern product that was bought and fully paid for prior to the date of designation (i.e., no payment remains due to Kalashnikov Concern), then that product is not blocked and OFAC sanctions would not prohibit the U.S. person from keeping or selling the product in the secondary market, so long as Kalashnikov Concern has no interest in the transaction. New transactions by U.S. persons with Kalashnikov Concern are prohibited, however, and any property in which Kalashnikov Concern has an interest is blocked pursuant to OFAC’s designation of Kalashnikov Concern on July 16, 2014. If a U.S. person has an inventory of Kalashnikov Concern products in which Kalashnikov Concern has an interest (for example, the products are not fully paid for or are being sold on consignment), we advise that U.S. person to contact OFAC for further guidance on handling of the inventory. [7-16-2014] 375. If I have Kalashnikov products in my inventory, can I sell them? If a U.S. person has an inventory of Kalashnikov Concern products in which Kalashnikov Concern has an interest (for example, the products are not fully paid for or are being sold on consignment), we advise that U.S. person to contact OFAC for further guidance on handling of the inventory. [7-16-2014] So, in


Loudoun County to get first Whole Foods, but office market withers

Whole Foods will open in a planned shopping center at the corner of Claiborne Parkway and Leesburg Pike. (Courtesy Regency Centers Corp.) It seems antithetical. How could Loudoun County, consistently named one of the wealthiest counties in America, not have a Whole Foods? No bulk grains or nuts? No farm-raised salmon? No free range chicken? Thankfully this indignity will not stand. Shopping center developer Regency Centers Corp. announced this week that it has signed Whole Foods Market to open a 40,000-square-foot store in a shopping center it is developing in Ashburn at the intersection of Claiborne Parkway and Route 7 (Harry Byrd Highway). The project, called Belmont Chase, will also include a Cooper’s Hawk Winery and Restaurant, Cava Mezze Grill, Peet’s Coffee & Tea and a salon. The center is slated to open in the summer of 2015. It will be Loudoun County’s first Whole Foods, despite being named the wealthiest county in the nation by Forbes Magazine in 2013 and second wealthiest (behind Falls Church City) this year. Prince George’s County’s first store is scheduled to open around the same time. There is no shortage of grocery stores along Route 7. Harris Teeter and The Fresh Market both have stores a couple of miles east down Route 7 and Wegmans has a store at the Village at Leesburg to the west. But the Loudoun Whole Foods is part of a bigger plan: to try to advance 1.2 million square feet of other commercial development at Belmont Executive Center, including office space and a hotel. It’s a hard sell. Constructing a new office building away from transit, restaurants and other amenities is tough sledding right now, as evidenced by the fact that there are no office buildings under construction in all of Loudoun County right now, same as Arlington County, Prince William County and Alexandria, according to the Alexandria research firm Delta Associates. More leased space was vacated than filled in Northern Virginia in the first quarter of the year, and the vacancy rate rose to 13.4 percent. Things are even worse in Loudoun County, where the vacancy rate is 16.4 percent. Northern Virginia landlords are finding that they have to give away a few free months of rent to get leases signed and in Loudoun they are signing shorter leases on average than in any of the other Northern Virginia areas. The bright spots in Northern Virginia’s office market


Outgoing Afghan war commander raises questions about counterterrorism plan

Gen. Joseph Dunford, nominated to be the next commandant of the Marine Corps, said Thursday during his Senate Armed Services Committee hearing that U.S. and Afghan military commanders would have preferred that the United States’ military withdrawal from the country be more “ambiguous.” (Photo by by Staff Sgt. Dustin Payne/Marine Corps) The U.S. military’s outgoing top commander in Afghanistan highlighted improvements in the coalition-trained Afghan military on Thursday, but said the Obama administration’s plan to withdraw nearly all U.S. troops by the end of 2016 will weaken the United States’ ability to perform counterterrorism missions there. Gen. Joseph Dunford, up for confirmation to become the next commandant of the Marine Corps, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that he does not envision that the Afghan military will be “capable of conducting the kind of operations we’re conducting” to put pressure on al-Qaeda and others in the network of extremists threatening security before 2017 when virtually all U.S. troops are gone. The U.S. withdrawal calls for about 9,800 American troops in Afghanistan by the end of this year, with an additional 4,000 troops from other coalition countries. The U.S. force will include about 2,000 Special Operations troops. The overall number of U.S. troops will be cut in half by the end of 2015, and then reduced again to about 1,000 based at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul in 2016, Dunford said. There will be virtually no U.S. commandos in Afghanistan by 2017, he said. “In accordance with the plan right now, we would have…a Kabul-centric approach,” Dunford said. “That would reduce our collections capability, our signals intelligence, our human intelligence and our strike capability. So it would be a significant reduction in our overall counterterrorism capability.” Dunford was called to testify about his plans and outlook for the Marine Corps, but spent a significant portion of the hearing answering questions about Afghanistan, and to a lesser degree, Iraq. He said he has confidence in the “regional approach” the United States has planned in Afghanistan in 2015, but sounded significantly less comfortable about the arrangement afterward. Currently, there about 7,000 U.S. Special Operations troops in Afghanistan, Dunford said. Some perform counterterrorism missions, while others work with and train Afghanistan’s growing cadre of commandos. By January 2015, Dunford said, the number of U.S. commandos will drop to 3,000. Under questioning from Sen. Lindsey Graham (R.-S.C.), the general said he does not see how


Europe may get a lot tougher on Russia sanctions

A part of the wreckage of a Malaysia Airlines jetliner near the settlement of Grabovo in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. (Maxim Zmeyev/Reuters) Information is still coming in on the crash of a Malaysia Airlines flight over eastern Ukraine. We hope to have posts at the Monkey Cage from several social scientists with relevant insights about the political implications as we get better data. However, initial indications appear to strongly suggest that the flight was downed by Ukrainian rebels sponsored by Russia. If these indications are correct (sometimes, early impressions are flawed or completely wrong), the downing will almost certainly have enormous repercussions for Russia’s relationship with its neighbors and with the world. One important bellwether is Russia’s relationship with the European Union. The E.U. has been much less willing to impose sanctions on Russia than the United States, in large part because it has much closer economic ties. Initially, resistance to tough sanctions was led by Germany, which has developed an extensive economic relationship with Russia, including substantial reliance on Russian gas. More recently, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has gotten much tougher, pressing for relatively strong sanctions against Russia at a E.U. meeting a couple of days ago. However, Italy, which also has strong economic ties with Russia and is currently chairing the union, pushed successfully to water down E.U. sanctions. The E.U. operates on consensus – especially on foreign policy and security issues. Strong opposition from a major member state makes it hard to move policy forward. If it turns out that Russian sponsored rebels have used Russian advanced weaponry to down an aircraft bound from the Dutch capital to Kuala Lumpur, it may transform Europe’s debate, and make it far harder for countries like Italy to remain holdouts. EU member states — like all states — tend to be pretty hard nosed about pursuing their self-interest, and it could be that several countries would prefer to limit their actions to rhetorical condemnations. Moreover, there are influential politicians and former politicians, such as former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, who have deep ties to Russia, and have argued its case in the past. However, as Frank Schimmelfennig shows in his account of bargaining over E.U. enlargement, states can also find themselves “entrapped” by rhetoric into taking positions that run counter to their true preferences. It’s going to be hard for such states


How Islam mattered in the Arab uprisings

protest movements by using data from the Arab Barometer Project collected in Egypt and Tunisia shortly after the fall of their respective regimes. The findings are not what many might have expected. The link between religion and protest behavior is primarily found in personal piety and behavior rather than communal or mosque practice. Mosque attenders were no more likely to participate in anti-regime protests than were non-attenders. In fact, frequent mosque attenders may have been slightly less likely to participate. While the differences between the most frequent attenders and non-attenders were not statistically significant, frequent attenders were about 25 percent less likely to participate in protest than were non-attenders. These findings contrast sharply with the “days of rage” narrative, which argues that a vast number of citizens who would not otherwise have protested chose to participate because of sermons delivered in mosques immediately before the protests began. On the other hand, Koran readers were far more likely to engage in protest than non-readers. In both Egypt and Tunisia, frequent Koran readers were over three times as likely to report protesting against the regime than citizens who do not read the Koran. Protesters do appear to have been more religious than other citizens, but there is less evidence that religious institutions provided the crucial organizational advantages. If organizational resources were the driving force behind religious participation in the Arab Spring, then mosque attenders should have been substantially more likely to protest than non-attenders. Personal religious convictions and behaviors drove pious citizens into the squares, in contrast to the claim that mosques drove this participation. Note: This figure presents the “relative risk” of protest comparing frequent Koran readers (or mosque attenders) to “rarely” readers/attenders. The relative risk is the ratio of the predicted probability of protest comparing “always” values to “rarely” values, holding all of the control variables constant at their observed values. What about the long-standing question of grievance versus opportunity in protest behavior? We find more evidence for grievance-related channels than opportunity. In both countries, Koran readers are significantly more likely to support democracy and to perceive unequal treatment from the government, both of which suggest goal-oriented mobilization rather than the mere presence of opportunity. Further, two of the most important variables related to opportunity – trust and efficacy – are actually negatively correlated with Koran reading, and sometimes significantly so. These “opportunity” mechanisms would lower the costs of participating


Russia, the Middle East and American deaths

The president seems ho-hum, fretful. What about some righteous anger? And what about some real sanctions? After the president announced new, but still not sector-wide, sanctions Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) put out a statement: The sanctions announced today by President Obama are inadequate. It is shameful that in the face of continued Russian aggression against Ukraine, the United States and our European allies remain unwilling to take decisive action to impose comprehensive sanctions against Russia’s banking, energy and arms sectors. Just in recent days, Russia has launched attacks against Ukrainian forces defending their sovereign territory and increased military assistance to separatists who are sowing chaos and instability in eastern Ukraine. Russia’s actions in Ukraine are not ‘targeted’ or calibrated to avoid economic repercussions. Its ongoing aggression against Ukraine is a direct threat to the post-World War II international order. In the pace and scope of U.S. assistance to Ukraine and the willingness to impose tough penalties on Putin, President Obama continues to act as if the U.S. does not have a direct interest in the outcome of the Ukrainian people’s struggle to choose their own destiny. Limited actions like those announced today make U.S. threats look hollow. Instead of continuing to avoid decisive action, it is time to stand with our Ukrainian partners, including immediate provision of lethal assistance requested by Ukraine, as they attempt to enjoy the fruits of freedom. Indeed. Even the president’s use of the term “tragedy” is misguided. This is not a natural disaster, a hurricane that blew through a town. This is the result of Russian aggression and the failure of the West to reverse Russian gains and push its stooges out of Ukraine. Whether it is his secretary of state pleading for more time, our dithering in Iraq, our belated and insufficient action in Syria or our utter lack of credibility in Israel and Egypt, we see what leading from behind has gotten us. It’s a world more violent, unstable and unsafe. Retrench and bring our forces home? Keep cutting defense? It’s not working out. In fact, be it in Benghazi, Libya, when jihadists surprised us, or over the skies of Ukraine, Americans overseas are in peril, and we face both homegrown terrorists and those from overseas who would do us harm. We haven’t ended any wars. We’ve allowed them to spread. Before the U.S. body count goes up, maybe we should change policies.


The second accident in only four months could be catastrophic for Malaysia Airlines

explained, unwilling to speak on the record. What we do know, however, is that this does not appear to be the fault of Malaysia Airlines. The airplane doesn't seem to have breached any protocol. It was flying over unrestricted airspace, according to the International Air Transport Association, traveling along an otherwise routine route, and cruising 30,000-plus feet above Ukranian land that was regularly being traversed not only by other Malaysia Airline planes, but also by those of several other carriers, including Air France and Singapore Airlines. And yet, rather cruelly, it's very difficult to envision a scenario in which Malaysia Airlines doesn't suffer mightily. "Regardless of the objective truth about Malaysia Airlines' negligence, the general public will perceive that it is not a safe airline," Erin Bowen, an Associate Professor and Chair of the Safety Science Department at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, said in an interview. "I suspect you're going to see a pretty significant drop in revenue. Whether Malaysia Airlines will be able to rebound from this is questionable at best." There have been at least seven other incidents in which passenger planes have been shot out of the sky. But having two major disasters hit the same airline company in such a short span is without precedent in modern civil aviation history. This latest one and the previous, in which Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 disappeared in March en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, could be catastrophic for the airline's reputation. Erasing an association between the airline and the successive accidents could prove difficult, if not impossible. “This is almost certainly going to have a negative outcome for Malaysia Airlines, the only hope is that it be minimal," George Hamlin, President of Hamlin Transportation Consulting and former senior consultant at Global Aviation Associates, said in an interview. Malaysia Airlines admitted publicly that it saw "a major short-term reaction in consumer behavior" and "observed high cancellation of existing bookings and reduction in long-haul bookings in favor of short-haul bookings” in the wake of Flight MH370's disappearance. The current accident being investigated in Ukraine might not be the airline's fault, but that might not matter. "One of the things that we know is that human beings are irrational beings," Bowen said. "And humans are particularly irrational about flying. People choose airlines based on which they feel safest flying on, but we know that statistically speaking all airlines are pretty much equivalent."


Ukraine’s accusations that pro-Russian separatists blew up a Malaysian airplane is today’s cover story

Several months after Malaysian Flight 370 went missing, tragedy has struck the airline again. Both Russian and Ukrainian officials are pointing fingers over who exactly launched a missile that downed a flight traveling from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, killing at least 295 people. Read the full story here. More cover story previews from Express: The battle between D.C. cyclists and motorists is today’s cover story America’s growing issue with the mentally ill flooding jails is today’s cover story A look at D.C.’s cosmetic surgery obsession is today’s cover The reasoning behind the influx of migrant children illegally crossing the border is on today’s cover


Was the downing of the Malaysian Air flight accidental?

Russia would not miss but would also be plausibly present in Ukrainian arsenals. This allows the Russians to retain a figleaf of plausible deniability about the equipment. Yet if the separatists had received training on a fairly sophisticated system, why would they fail to identify the Malyasia Airlines flight as civilian? Most aircraft have a transponder to identify them when they are interrogated by a radar. Unfortunately the accidental downing of aircraft is rare but not unheard of, even for professional military organizations. In 2003 a U.S. Patriot missile battery shot down a British Tornado jet during the early stages of the Operation Iraqi Freedom. As Scott Snook describes in his book Friendly Fire, there are usually multiple independent but connected causes for failure in such cases. Snook walks through the series of events leading accidental downing by U.S. F-15 jet fighters of two U.S. helicopters over northern Iraq in 1994. In particular he highlights the psychological impact of expectations, where pilots expected to see Iraqi helicopters and therefore visually misidentified U.S. Blackhawk helicopters as Iraqi Hind helicopters. Combined with other weaknesses in both the technology and organization for identifying aircraft in northern Iraq, this misidentification led to tragedy. If the U.S. Army and Air Force have had challenges with identifying their own or allied aircraft, even visually, then it is entirely possible that separatists failed to appropriately identify the Malaysia Airlines flight. The separatists, having had significant success over the past month in downing Ukrainian military aircraft, were no doubt enthusiastic for more success. At the same time the recent advances by the Ukrainian military against the separatists likely had them on edge, expecting any aircraft approaching them from the west (as a flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur probably was) to be Ukrainian military. Fear and excitement, combined with other limitations in older Soviet technology and possibly limited training, could therefore have led to another tragedy. This conclusion, though plausible, is nonetheless tentative. The separatists may not have been responsible. But the tragedy underscores that the military balance in Ukraine remains fluid and contested, with civilians both on the ground and in the air reaping the consequences. Austin Long is an Assistant Professor of Political and International Affairs at Columbia. Previously, he was an associate political scientist for the RAND Corporation, serving in Iraq as an analyst and advisor to the Multinational Force Iraq and the U.S. military.


Stressing about money is making you poor

cards, Clements says. On the flipside, present-oriented people who stress their immediate needs-- by focusing on decisions that need to be made today or bills that are due tomorrow-- might never think about the long-term changes they can make to reduce their financial burdens, he says. Clements recalls a woman with credit card debt who ran up a $12,000 credit card bill after losing her job. She always paid her bills on time but didn’t realize that her credit score was strong enough to qualify for a balance transfer to a credit card with a lower interest rate. She was so focused on her current challenges that she convinced herself she wouldn’t be able to get a better deal, he says. Oddly enough, it was people who are stuck in the past, especially those who may have been burned by a crisis or bad decision, who were better off financially, the study found. Those consumers are less likely to buy things they can’t afford, reducing their chances of taking on debt, filing for bankruptcy or experiencing foreclosure. But every approach, when taken to an extreme, has its flaws. People who look back too often on the good old days may be averse to trying new approaches, resisting methods that may be more efficient or more profitable. And people who are too conservative with their investments out of fear that they'll see a big loss, are also setting themselves up to miss out on market gains, Clements says. Still, it’s because of that caution that a higher percentage of millennials were found to be better off financially than boomers, Zimbardo and Clements say. While younger workers are more likely to be burdened by student debt and often feel like they don’t know much when it comes to financial literacy, they are more cautious with their money, mostly because of the shock they faced after graduating during the Great Recession.“They entered the workforce at a particularly bad time,” Clements says. Facing layoffs early in their careers and watching family members lose their lifetime savings during the market crash made millennials more likely to save than to buy a car or a home they can't afford, Clements says, adding that there is also a good chance they’ll be conservative with those savings. In contrast, boomers, who were also scarred by the recession, are very future oriented, making them good planners but less likely


Financing Africa’s democratic opposition

African Presidents and Head of States posing for a group photograph during the African Union Summit held at Malabo, Equatorial Guinea, 26 June 2014. EPA/EGYPTIAN PRESIDENCY This is a bonus installment of TMC’s African Politics Summer Reading Spectacular. Leonardo Arriola, Associate Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley, writes about his recent book, “Multiethnic Coalitions in Africa: Business Financing of Opposition Election Campaigns.” – Kim Yi Dionne **** During the African Union’s (AU) annual summit held at the end of June, leaders from across the continent voted to add an immunity clause exempting themselves and other senior government officials from prosecution before the newly established African Court of Justice and Human Rights— a court intended to become a regional version of the International Criminal Court (ICC) with jurisdiction over cases involving crimes against humanity. Civil society groups argue that the immunity clause not only undermines the African Court’s mandate, but also encourages the perpetrators of human rights violations “to hold on to power indefinitely.” The immunity clause is a depressing reminder of the impunity that characterizes some governments in the region — including this year’s host of the AU summit in Equatorial Guinea — but its adoption is unlikely to fundamentally change the political calculus of most African leaders. Before securing a “get out of jail free” card from the AU, most leaders were already doing whatever it took to stay in power. Presidents in sub-Saharan Africa may well have the highest reelection rate in the world: 75 percent of presidential elections in the region since 1990 have been won by sitting incumbents or their chosen successors. Recently reelected African presidents include Burkina Faso’s Blaise Compaoré (in office since 1987), Cameroon’s Paul Biya (in office since 1982), Chad’s Idriss Déby (in office since 1990), and Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni (in office since 1986). By contrast, outside Africa, the reelection rate among incumbent presidents or their designated successors was less than 50 percent between 1990 and 2005. What accounts for the apparent longevity in office of African presidents? Why don’t their opponents simply work together to defeat them at the next election? One potential explanation commonly highlighted in news coverage, both in African and foreign sources, concerns the influence of ethnicity in political competition. Incumbents can hold on to power, the logic goes, because their opponents are themselves divided by ethnicity. Opposition presidential candidates, who may be popularly perceived as representatives of


How damaging will Russian hypocrisy be after Malaysian Airlines 17?

An armed pro-Russian separatist stands on part of the wreckage of the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 plane after it crashed near the settlement of Grabovo in the Donetsk region, July 17, 2014. REUTERS/Maxim Zmeyev The downing of Malaysian Airlines 17, most likely done (accidentally) by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, is a disaster wrapped in a catastrophe inside a tragedy. The plane was carrying an awful lot of AIDS researchers on their way to a conference. The carnage from the plane wreckage was so bad that even the rebels in Sabrina Tavernise’s story seem appalled and saddened by the catastrophe. The real tragedy, as Julia Ioffe implies in TNR and Josh Keating says flat-out in Slate, is that despite a lot of claims that this will pressure Russia and Russian-supported rebels to stand down, that’s unlikely to happen. As Keating notes: Any smoking-gun evidence tying separatist rebels to the crash or the separatists to Russia will be spun and denied. The rebels will deny they shot down the planem and the Russian government—as it has continually—will deny that it is supporting the rebels. There will be pressure on the U.S. to respond forcefully against Russia, but new sanctions were announced just yesterday. The high number of European casualties on the plane may spur calls for the EU to step up its sluggish response, but those measures were also already in the works. The incident may result in a temporary lull in violence—separatists are apparently open to a three-day cease-fire—but my guess is that before long the Ukrainian military will restart its offensive against the rebels and, once Ukraine dips out of the headlines a bit, separatist activity including the supplying of fighters with arms from Russia will continue Indeed, Vladimir Putin said yesterday that, “the state over whose territory this occurred bears responsibility for this awful tragedy.” That’s not the sound of a leader laying the groundwork for contrition. And since the Russian media is already spinning the idea that Ukraine’s military shot down MH17 because they thought it was Vladimir Putin’s presidential plane, it would appear that the official line is in place. From the occupation of Crimea onwards, Putin has lied repeatedly about Russian actions in Ukraine, so Russian hypocrisy is likely to persist into the near future. There are those who believe this is the start of another “Guns of August”, but the proper historical parallel is


Video: Fireball streaks across sky over Mid Atlantic

Meteor - Raleigh, NC 7/17/2014 A fireball was caught on dashcam on Thursday night. No, this video is not from Russia, which is often the headlines for crazy dashcam videos — it’s from the Mid Atlantic. Dan Perjar was driving down the freeway in Raleigh, N.C., when a fireball streaked across the sky. Luckily the camera on his car’s dashboard was ready to capture the scene. As the fireball shoots across the night sky, it appears to flash like a firework before it disappears. The anomaly was seen lighting up the sky from North Carolina to as far north as New York, including Washington D.C.. According to the American Meteor Society, it was primarily seen by witnesses in Virginia, though people in D.C., Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and even West Virginia are reporting seeing the ball of fire. July,17 2014 Virginia fireball eye-witness reports heat map (AMS) Probable fireball trajectory. (AMS) The American Meteor Society also has an interactive map of fireball reports on their website. The society explains that a fireball is a very bright meteor, and specifically, is brighter in the night sky than the planet Venus. Several thousand meteors occur every day, though we only see a fraction of them since so many happen over oceans or un-populated areas. We can see fireballs in the daylight, as we saw in Russia last year, though these events need to be incredibly bright — and even brighter if their trajectory is close to or in front of the sun. Thursday’s fireball also lit up social media, and many CWG readers saw the event themselves: Anybody else in northern Virginia just we a flying green object that looked like a shooting star in the southern sky? @capitalweather @Runway1R @capitalweather yes. Huge. Saw it from SE DC @dismalscience @capitalweather fwiw it looked to be pretty much directly south of me, and I'm at 5th and H NW @MrTinDC @capitalweather Yup. Spotted it out my south facing window from Mount Pleasant. If you saw the fireball last night, the AMS is collecting witness reports on their website.


On Bands: A Postscript

to playing “Taps” at a funeral, providing a family with a profoundly meaningful experience. The musicians I talked to also felt, and demonstrated, that the military has been actively helpful in letting them spread their wings, be it with freelance gigs or with extra training. Most of the public-relations officers I talked to, for instance, were former active band members who were pleased to be able to get hands-on training in arts administration, with an eye to their future careers. (I neglected to stress in the article that band members, like all members of the military, can retire with full benefits after a mere 20 years of active service, meaning that many can consider a career switch in their mid-forties, and have the luxury of a support cushion when doing so. Colonel Michael Colburn, the 27th commander of the Marine Band, retired this summer in a July concert I mentioned in the article; now 49 years old, he’s going off to head the band program at Butler University.) Sgt. First Class Emily Leader of The U.S. Army Band. “Pershing’s Own” plays in uniform – but also subs for the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra. (photo:: Sgt. First Class Chris Branagan). I was particularly struck by the story of Barry Hearn, a trombonist with the NSO who had nine years of military band experience before winning the NSO audition. Hearn had subbed quite a bit with the NSO before he got the seat. “The army was very happy and willing to accommodate the occasional inconvenience to the army so that I was able to do both my military tasks and go across the Potomac” to perform with the NSO, he said. “It was such a morale boost for myself that they were willing to let me pursue this.” Though, he adds, “I never felt unhappy in the Army, so it wasn’t as if being in the National Symphony alleviated my unhappiness in the Army… It’s good for the Army as well to show that their musicians have that ability to cross over into the classical world if they wanted to.” Hearn decided to extend his Army service and signed a six-year enlistment: a firm commitment to the government. “When you sign that contract it is just about in blood,” he said. A year later, he won the NSO chair. “Colonel Rotondi was the band commander at the time,” Hearn said, “and he was


Will the Malaysia Airlines tragedy change the trajectory of events in Ukraine?

day before the plane crash, videos of Grad rocket launchers firing from the Russian side of the border in the direction of Ukraine appeared on YouTube, and the precise location has of the rockets has been identified as the north-west section of the Russian border town of Gukovo. The issue of whether and to what extent the Ukrainian forces are taking sufficient measures to avoid civilian deaths when battling with the pro-Russian separatists is also likely to draw increased attention. While the exact causes of the crash remain to be determined, Ukraine, Russia, and the rebels have been trading accusations with no apparent limit to the audacity of some of the claims. Russia’s President Putin blamed the Ukrainian side for the crash, while the Russian state-controlled media posted links to the Twitter account allegedly belonging to a Spanish air traffic controller who said that two Ukrainian fighter jets were spotted near the MH17 plane before it went down. Other Russian media went as far as to claim that the intended target of the missile that brought down the plane was none other than Vladimir Putin, whose jet looks similar and was allegedly traveling almost the same route as the Malaysian Airlines jet shortly before the crash. The Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has called the downing of the plane an “act of terrorism,” and other Ukrainian officials claimed that the jet was downed by the pro-Russian rebels using a Buk surface-to-air missile system. The available evidence so far suggests that this is the most likely reason of the crash, although any definitive conclusions would be premature at this point. The pieces of evidence pointing to the rebel responsibility also offer insights into the larger dynamics of conflict in eastern Ukraine, including relations among different groups of the pro-Russian rebels and between the rebels and Russia. It also goes to show how conflicting claims in the information war leave even seemingly simple factual questions without clear answers. FILE – This Wednesday, June 30, 2010, file photo shows the Buk M2 missile system at a military show at the international forum “Technologies in machine building 2010” in Zhukovsky, Russia, outside Moscow. (AP Photo/Mikhail Metzel) Since the beginning of June, the separatists have shot down several Ukrainian military aircrafts, including two earlier this week. The Malaysian jet, flying at the altitude of some 10,000 meters, likely could be brought down only by a sophisticated


Smoke from hundreds of Canada wildfires may be intensifying East Coast sunsets

Smoke enhanced sunset over D.C. Thursday evening (Richard Barnhill via Facebook) Hundreds of wildfires in Canada and the Pacific Northwest U.S. have generated a plume of smoke traceable as far east as Washington, D.C. If you’ve noticed more tints of orange and red in the dawn and evening skies, it could well be from the enhanced scattering effect of increased smoke particles in the atmosphere. 2,720 wildfires have sprung up in Canada this year, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center, and 43 new fires have begun just in the past 24 hours. Over 2.5 million acres of Canada have burned already in 2014. The Alaska Dispatch News reports that the “southern Northwest Territories is experiencing the hottest, driest summer in some 50 years.” Fires rage in Canada, as captured by NASA’s Terra satellite on July 16, 2014. (NASA) Wildfire activity has also flourished in the Pacific Northwest U.S. A vicious wildfire in north central Washington – believed to be set off by lightning and enhanced by recent hot, dry weather – has destroyed up to 100 homes reports the Spokesman-Review. Up to 100 homes lost in devastating Washington wildfire. Photo: @MelissaKXLY4 http://t.co/IMJrpEyL22 http://t.co/xqiyElMAKl The Associated Press offers this video overview of the devastating blaze: A wind-whipped wildfire in Washington state forces more evacuations Leavenworth as firefighters do what they can to save the tourist town. The jet stream – or high altitude river of strong winds – has transported this smoke from these fires southeastward across North America. Jet stream (high altitude winds) Thursday. (WeatherBell.com) In the U.S., high smoke particle concentrations have compromised air quality in parts of the northern Rockies. Missoula, Mont. is particularly particulate today as smoke looms thick in the air. Wildfire smoke from WA, OR & Canada keep invading our skies, driving down our air quality. http://t.co/VgM7fZ6bpR http://t.co/0ikn33k6Q3 On satellite imagery Thursday, the smoke plume could be seen spreading across the Midwest all the way towards Mid-Atlantic. Thursday evening satellite view (NOAA) Sure enough, enhanced tints of orange and pink were apparent in last night’s sunset and this morning’s sunrise – likely fingerprints from fires thousands of miles away. A beautiful start to Fri in DC. @wusa9 @Toppersweather @ericagrow @capitalweather @WeatherNation @yourtake @spann http://t.co/mQj3YAiSHA Sunset in Manassas, V.A. on Thursday. (jimknapp via Flickr) Can't beat a DC sunset http://t.co/oDvx2SD4HQ Sunset in DC. http://t.co/yY9OyHL6AE The flow of high altitude winds this


Sanction Russia now

A woman walks Friday at the site of a crashed Malaysia Airlines passenger plane near the village of Rozsypne in eastern Ukraine. (Dmitry Lovetsky/Associated Press) President Obama on Friday said the U.S. government is confident that someone in separatist-held territory in eastern Ukraine shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17. He said that Russia supplied the rebels with heavy weaponry, anti-aircraft armaments and sophisticated training they would need to shoot down high-flying planes. And he repeatedly called for a full and thorough investigation into the attack. European leaders, meanwhile, are discussing the imposition of broader sanctions on Russia, but they have also signaled that they are waiting for an international inquiry to turn up more facts. Yet calls for and a focus on the coming crash investigation cannot become pretext to delay or weaken new sanctions. There is some logic in placing focus on a forensic examination of the crash, rather than on the injustice of the ongoing, messy civil conflict that has raged in eastern Ukraine for months. The claims of Russian spinners gamely attempting to deflect blame and the volatile behavior of the separatists, who, according to Western news reports, fired warning shots at OSCE investigators who attempted to tour the crash site on Friday, will contrast with straightforward international fact-finding. Separatist and Russian behavior in the region will look only more outrageous. But U.S. intelligence and several other sources appear to be well on their way to answering the biggest questions about the crash. Many lines of evidence point to pro-Russian rebels firing the shot, with Russia either directly or indirectly implicated in the attack. Obama already offered what amounts to a general but firm attribution of blame. Even if that weren’t so, airline crash investigations can take a lot of time in ideal circumstances. In the case of MH17, eastern Ukrainian locals, including separatists, seem to have severely compromised the crash site. It’s unclear where the plane’s black boxes are. At least one may be on its way to Moscow. Russia’s contributions to the context in which the MH17 tragedy happened, meanwhile, are reason enough to justify a strong Western reaction: repeatedly and brazenly violating Ukrainian sovereignty, stirring up pro-Russian extremists and sending arms across the border. Russia deserved tough treatment before MH17. It deserves a swift and hard reaction now — beyond the sanctions the United States announced earlier this week, and well beyond the more


Sanction Russia now

a crashed Malaysia Airlines passenger plane near the village of Rozsypne in eastern Ukraine. (Dmitry Lovetsky/Associated Press) President Obama on Friday said the U.S. government is confident that someone in separatist-held territory in eastern Ukraine shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17. He said that Russia supplied the rebels with heavy weaponry, anti-aircraft armaments and sophisticated training they would need to shoot down high-flying planes. And he repeatedly called for a full and thorough investigation into the attack. European leaders, meanwhile, are discussing the imposition of broader sanctions on Russia, but they have also signaled that they are waiting for an international inquiry to turn up more facts. Yet calls for and a focus on the coming crash investigation cannot become pretext to delay or weaken new sanctions. There is some logic in placing focus on a forensic examination of the crash, rather than on the injustice of the ongoing, messy civil conflict that has raged in eastern Ukraine for months. The claims of Russian spinners gamely attempting to deflect blame and the volatile behavior of the separatists, who, according to Western news reports, fired warning shots at OSCE investigators who attempted to tour the crash site on Friday, will contrast with straightforward international fact-finding. Separatist and Russian behavior in the region will look only more outrageous. But U.S. intelligence and several other sources appear to be well on their way to answering the biggest questions about the crash. Many lines of evidence point to pro-Russian rebels firing the shot, with Russia either directly or indirectly implicated in the attack. Obama already offered what amounts to a general but firm attribution of blame. Even if that weren’t so, airline crash investigations can take a lot of time in ideal circumstances. In the case of MH17, eastern Ukrainian locals, including separatists, seem to have severely compromised the crash site. It’s unclear where the plane’s black boxes are. At least one may be on its way to Moscow. Russia’s contributions to the context in which the MH17 tragedy happened, meanwhile, are reason enough to justify a strong Western reaction: repeatedly and brazenly violating Ukrainian sovereignty, stirring up pro-Russian extremists and sending arms across the border. Russia deserved tough treatment before MH17. It deserves a swift and hard reaction now — beyond the sanctions the United States announced earlier this week, and well beyond the more limited response European nations have so far pursued.


Truth telling at the U.N., obfuscation at the White House

must not be sheltered by any member state of the United Nations.” Unlike the president — who sounded like Inspector Poirot (or was it Inspector Clouseau?) investigating a crime — can’t jump to conclusions, can’t rule out anything — she assigned responsibility for the dastardly act: There was nothing threatening or provocative about MH17. Of the operational SAM systems located near the border, only the SA-11, SA-20, and SA-22 SAM systems are capable of hitting an aircraft at this flight’s altitude of 33,000 feet. We can rule out shorter-range SAMs known to be in separatist hands, including MANPADS, SA-8 and SA-13 systems, which are not capable of hitting an aircraft at this altitude. Early Thursday, an SA-11 SAM system was reported near Snizhne by a Western reporter, and separatists were spotted hours before the incident with an SA-11 system at a location close to the site where the plane came down. Separatists initially claimed responsibility for shooting down a military transport plane and posted videos that are now being connected to the Malaysian airlines crash. Separatist leaders also boasted on social media about shooting down a plane, but later deleted these messages. Because of the technical complexity of the SA-11, it is unlikely that the separatists could effectively operate the system without assistance from knowledgeable personnel. Thus, we cannot rule out technical assistance from Russian personnel in operating the systems. The Ukrainians do have SA-11 systems in their inventory. However, we are not aware of any Ukrainian SAM systems in the area of the shoot-down. And, more importantly, since the beginning of this crisis, Ukrainian air defenses have not fired a single missile, despite several alleged violations of their airspace by Russian aircraft. This also follows a pattern of actions by Russian-backed separatists. On June 13th, separatists shot down a Ukrainian transport plane, carrying 40 paratroopers and nine crew. On June 24th, as this Council was meeting to welcome Ukraine’s unilateral cease-fire, we received word that separatists downed a Ukrainian helicopter, killing all nine on board. On July 14th, separatists claimed credit for the downing of a Ukrainian military cargo plane, flying at 6,000 meters, and on July 16, they claimed credit for the downing of a Ukrainian fighter jet. If she hadn’t laid out the case, the American people — and the world — would never have known how definitive is the evidence. After warning about the risk of


The evidence that may prove pro-Russian separatists shot down MH17

Journalists examine debris from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which crashed over eastern Ukraine last week. (Robert Ghement/European Pressphoto Agency) In the astonishing, grim aftermath of the crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, accusations are still flying. While Russia continues to pin the blame on Kiev, most others are becoming increasingly convinced that the plane was shot down by pro-Russian rebels who hold sway in parts of eastern Ukraine, where the plane's debris is still strewn across wheat fields near the town of Torez. Russian President Vladimir Putin says the crash may be the fault of an escalation in hostilities against the rebels spurred by the government in Kiev; rebel leaders say they don't have the capabilities to shoot down the plane. But here's what's fueling the speculation. The missile The U.S. State Department, as well as Secretary of State John Kerry during TV interviews on Sunday, reiterated claims that the passenger airliner was likely to have been brought down by a SA-11 surface-to-air missile. A State Department statement published Saturday pointed to reports of Russia moving in a significant amount of heavy weaponry into eastern Ukraine over the past month, including a convoy of up to "150 vehicles including tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery, and multiple rocket launchers." Ukrainian officials and news sites published images and footage allegedly showing the presence of at least one Buk SA-11 in a town near the crash site. The sophistication of the weaponry needed to bring down a plane at the height at which MH17 was flying makes it, Kerry said, "pretty clear that this is a system that was transferred from Russia into the hands of separatists." U.S. officials said Sunday that there was also evidence that the rebels had attempted to move the missile system back to Russia after the MH17 crash. The separatists have downed about a dozen Ukrainian planes in recent months. Satellite imagery is said to show a plume of smoke that may have been the trail of the missile launched at MH17. The rebels' stubbornness in initially thwarting full access to the site and their shoddy treatment of the crash scene and the bodies of the victims seem to buttress suspicions that the separatists have cause to tamper with the evidence. The intercepts Ukrainian security services revealed a number of taped recordings thought to be conversations between pro-Russian rebels after the attack. The Washington Post has not been


All of America walks into a bar. Explaining the case for immigration reform

A flight of tasters is served up at the bar at Meridian Pint in Columbia Heights. According to the restaurant’s general manager, Drew Swift, half of the bar’s draft list are beers from breweries within a 60-mile radius of the establishment. Photo by Lexey Swall For the Washington Post) Immigration reform has died and died again, and people are still arguing about it — many of them, presumably, in bars. So because stretching metaphors to their breaking point is more fun than examining our politics, let’s pretend we’re actually in a bar. Here, have a pretend drink! Pretend cheers! Except, and here’s the totally not surprising metaphor, this bar is the entire United States. Yes, this is a metaphor for understanding the case for immigration reform. So America is a bar. How’s Barmerica doing? Well, its sales — all of the beers, wings and whiskey, plus things like the investments its owners have made — have been terrible. Like negative 2.9 percent-terrible over the first three months of this year. This makes everyone in this bar kinda, well, uneasy. Barmerica is used to selling more, not less. During the past 20 years, Barmerica’s business — its gross bar product, if you will — grew closer to 3-4 percent a year, or sometimes higher. Also, the music really was better. So,we need to find a way to sell more drinks, right? But most of the patrons like you and me are kinda tapped out. We’ve been drinking a while — not that there’s anything wrong with that. There’s a few high rollers over there in the VIP section, but most people aren’t really spending on the midprice drinks that used to be your bread and butter. One way to increase sales is get more people to come into the bar. Unfortunately, it’s actually quite hard to get into Barmerica. Like, it can take, a decade to get into this place. Having money helps. But, there are still a LOT of people waiting to get into this bar. From an immigration perspective, America is basically every Stefon club combined. It’s Miami’s LIV after the Heat won the NBA championship; the VIP areas are called H1B and EB-5. Gallup estimated that 138 million people are trying to get into your establishment every year (don’t worry it’s a big place). It’s great that people still want to get into your bar, right? Except that


Storyline: The owner’s manual

Welcome to Storyline. Here’s a quick guide. How we’ll cover stories Most of our stories will spring from big questions about American life, rather than traditional beats or breaking news. So rather than covering, say, health care — a topic so broad that it includes Obamacare, economics, the business of health care and wellness — we’ll be focusing on questions like “How is the Affordable Care Act changing us?” Often, we’ll write a series of stories — chapters in a larger narrative — on those topics. We’re calling these complicated, multilayered questions “storylines.” Why we like stories, not Web pages You’ll find our main storyline of the day in the top of our homepage — those splashy top four stories you see. But when you open one of our other articles, you’ve opened a bit more than a page. We’ve taken you directly into a storyline. Scroll down and you’ll find more stories and more windows into the big questions we’re investigating. Each day we’ll publish in clusters around one or more storylines, which means any time you click into a relatively new piece of Storyline content, you’ll find yourself surrounded by our other coverage on that topic. Traditional news sites are really good at sending readers to one piece of content, but they’re largely bad at connecting readers with deep, multilayered information on what they care about. Part of this is a taxonomy problem: Why send readers to a business section rather than something more specific and personal? We want our storylines to be the polar opposite of a topic page; they’ll be conversational, direct and diverse streams of good stuff. We hope that you’ll come back to these storylines to see how they progress. You can jump through individual stories by hitting these buttons on the right side of each article page. When you get to the end of each Storyline, each cluster of stories on a certain topic, you’ll see text at the bottom right of the page directing you to the “Next Storyline.” You’ll also be able to keep track of what stories you’ve read: blue dots next to our pieces mean they’re unread. Which storylines are you covering? More information on that is coming. Today, you’ll see four storylines: uneven recovery; immigration stalemate; how is the ACA changing us?; and rural America. We’ll be adding more storylines shortly after launch. Ask a question, tell us


Beaches, beers and brotherhood

Welcome to CapBiz A.M., your morning primer on business news with a focus on Washington. Beach brews: Bouncing back: Go for development: Odd job: Counsel compensation: Moving out: Demanding answers: Problems in China: Hold the phone: On Wall Street Stocks rebounded to end the week as concerns over tensions in Gaza and Ukraine seem to have receded. (Get the latest updates here) What’s on tap today Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30 a.m.) NoVa Business Professionals meetup event (11:00 a.m.) Jennifer Schaus & Associates government contractors networking event (5:30 p.m.) Help: Follow: Extra:


We asked you to Name That Data, and you did

similarity with the 'black belt' in the South. @_cingraham Non-white population. The clue that stood out to me was the "black belt" running from NC to MS. #NameThatData Via Wikipedia And indeed, the mystery data does seem to track pretty closely with the areas with a high black population, especially in the South. But black population doesn't explain the high shares of the mystery quantity in New England and parts of the Southwest. Another popular guess was prevalence of obesity. But that isn't right, either. Reid Wilson and I actually mapped this over at GovBeat not too long ago. You can see that obesity rates are relatively high in the Dakotas and Plains states, but the mystery quantity is fairly low in those areas. Plenty of you pointed out that I screwed up a "less than" sign in the key - sorry, guys. Some of you went meta: @_cingraham Population that has now been driven completely nuts by this question. Others went political: @_cingraham #Namethatdata Population who is not afraid to admit voting for Sarah Palin? Others tried to brute-force the problem: @_cingraham @politicgame Definitely didn't spend the last 15 minutes CTRL+F'ing through Census datasets for random counties. Still others weren't having it at all: In the end, roughly 10 percent of you got it right. The data in question is the share of people in each county who have never been married. This explains the high concentrations in certain Southern counties. These counties have large African-American populations, who have a significantly lower marriage rate than whites or Hispanics. On the other hand, people in Northeastern states like Massachusetts and New York tend to marry later in their lives than elsewhere, while people in the Midwest tend to marry younger. Commenter Deweena was the first person to submit a correct answer, at 3:12 PM on Friday. I hereby award Deweena the Early Bird Prize for Prompt and Expeditious Accuracy. But this wasn't the most precise answer. The good folks behind the Twitter account at Policy Map nailed it down to the data source and year, an impressive feat no matter how they pulled it off. For this, I grant them the title of Data Wizards/Ninjas/Unicorns/Whatevs, and hereby certify that, at least last Friday, they were Right on the Internet when so many others were wrong. This was fun, wasn't it? Come back this Friday afternoon and we'll do another one.


The impossible challenge of identifying bodies from MH17

vital forensic clues will start to disappear such as fingerprints, tattoos, scars, birthmarks and the opportunity for visual identification. Over the past 20 years, DNA has been used in disasters such as the World Trade Center attacks in New York in 2001 and the Bali Bombings in 2002, and technologies have improved much over time. DNA samples should be taken of all bodies and body parts recovered from the MH17 crash site so these can be compared against DNA from the victim’s personal items or their close relatives. The delay in recovering the bodies shouldn’t have an impact on obtaining DNA profiles from victim’s bone samples, but the delay will significantly limit DNA profiling from blood and soft tissue. The explosion The explosion and fire from the missile attack is another challenge for forensic experts. The associated heat and destructive forces of the initial explosion and resulting crash will make the bodies more difficult to recover and identify. Despite the successful use of forensic science in many previous disasters, unfortunately there is always the possibility that not all victims can be identified. To give families of MH17 passengers the best chance of having their loved ones returned, international experts need access to the entire crash area across multiples sites to conduct a thorough recovery using INTERPOL DVI standards. Open access to evidence already collected from the crash site by pro-Russian separatists needs to be given to forensic experts. This evidence is most likely to contain valuable identification information and provide additional context to the forensic investigation. Looking for evidence Despite reports that bodies are now being refrigerated, forensic experts need to start autopsies on them immediately. Not only will these experts look for and recover evidence that will lead to identification, they will also search for evidence that will help to uncover what caused the crash of MH17. The evidence will be used at Identification Boards and ultimately at a criminal court to help prosecute those responsible for such a heinous attack on innocent people. The most important aspect of DVI is having access to evidence that can lead to fast and accurate identification and this process should be done while treating victims with respect and dignity. There is little doubt that this access is being deliberately impeded for political reasons and the victims’ dignity has been ignored. This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.


How Web archivists and other digital sleuths are unraveling the mystery of MH17

An armed pro-Russian separatist stands on part of the wreckage of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 on July 17, after the plane crashed near the settlement of Grabovo, in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. (Maxim Zmeyev/Reuters) In the agonizing quest to pin down exactly what happened when Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 went down over Ukraine last week, Web archivists and other digital sleuths are playing an unusual — potentially pivotal — role. Wayback Machine, the nonprofit Web crawler that archives old versions of Web pages, captured evidence last Friday that a pro-Russian group was behind the attacks. Meanwhile, @RuGovEdits — a Twitter bot that monitors Wikipedia edits made from Russian government computers — logged evidence that reflects Russia’s interest in deflecting the MH17 narrative elsewhere. Both bits of evidence could prove important to understanding the crash and its political aftermath, particularly as investigators question the integrity of the crash site. But they’re also compelling examples of the Web’s ability to promote transparency and hold powerful people accountable for their words — even, or especially, when they delete them. Perhaps no one knows that better than Igor Girkin, a pro-Russian separatist leader whose hyperactive profile on Vkontakte, Russia’s Facebook clone, is regularly saved by the Wayback Machine. The administrators of Girkin’s page regularly post updates on the Ukrainian conflict from news sources, news conferences and Girkin himself. In fact, if you check the page now, you’ll see no fewer than a dozen updates on the crash, all blaming it squarely on the Ukrainian air force. But there was an earlier update, now deleted, made shortly before the crash went public: In the vicinity of Torez, we just downed a plane, an AN-26. It is lying somewhere in the Progress Mine. We have issued warnings not to fly in our airspace. We have video confirming. The bird fell on a waste heap. Residential areas were not hit. Civilians were not injured. Page administrators later tried to scrub that message, deleting it, posting a disclaimer distancing the page from Girkin and quoting a number of news stories that implicated the Ukrainians. They could not, however, remove the screen grab from the Internet Archive, where it now lives with 45 other versions of Girkin’s page. “Here’s why we exist,” the Wayback Machine wrote on Facebook, with links to earlier versions of Girkin’s page. “A Ukranian Separatist boasted his pro-Russian Group shot down a Ukranian plane on


The child migrant crisis is just the latest disastrous consequence of America’s drug war

traffickers — those willing to use violence, intimidation, and exploitation of the vulnerable to gain market share. The result has been catastrophic for both Mexico and Central America. Responding to U.S. prodding, Felipe Calderón, Mexico’s president from December 2006 to December 2012, launched a military-led offensive against his country’s drug cartels. That strategy backfired badly. During the Calderón years, an estimated 60,000 Mexicans perished in the drug wars that convulsed across the country. Another 20,000 people went missing during that period. Many, if not most, were likely victims of the ensuing turf wars. Grisly decapitations became routine news stories. Ciudad Juárez, on Mexico’s border with the United States and astride one of the main trafficking routes, descended into a horrifying cauldron of chaos. It became so bad in Juárez that at one point a group of prominent business leaders asked the United Nations to send peacekeeping troops. Corruption also proliferated, although it has often been difficult to determine if public officials have been corrupted by greed or threats of violence against them and their families. Appointed and elected officials, as well as police officers and soldiers tasked with bringing down the cartels, often face an ultimatum from the crime syndicates: plata o plomo? (silver or lead?) In other words, take a bribe or risk assassination. Too many officials who refuse to comply have paid for that decision with their lives—and sometimes with the lives of their family members. Others have understandably decided that assisting the cartels, or at least looking the other way, is the more prudent course. While the pace of Mexico’s drug-related corruption and violence has eased slightly over the past two years, the situation in Central America has grown steadily worse. The leading Mexican cartels began to move operations into Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador in 2008 as the pressure in Mexico mounted. It’s a game of “squeeze the balloon.” Put pressure on the drug cartels in one area, and the drug trade just pops up somewhere else. The corruption and violence followed them as well. In April 2013, Honduran authorities uncovered a plot by drug gangs to assassinate a congressman, a prominent journalist, and a police chief. A high-level Guatemalan official recently told the Associated Press that the Zetas (perhaps the most violent of all the Mexican cartels) had gained control of nearly half of Guatemala’s territory. The Zetas and competing cartels also control major chunks


IG says $2.8 million Afghanistan produce facility sitting unused, unmaintained

A $2.8 million facility the United States built in Afghanistan to store produce for local farmers has sat unused and unmaintained for more than a year, with Afghan officials still looking for a business to lease the property, according to a federal watchdog agency. The special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction issued a report Monday warning that the project, coordinated by the Defense Department’s Task Force for Business and Stability Operations, is at risk of failing. “TFBSO has not achieved what it told us was the key to the project’s success — the operation, maintenance and control of the facility by an Afghan business,” the report said. A building at the Gereshk Cold and Dry Storage Facility in Afghanistan. (Courtesy of SIGAR). SIGAR criticized the Defense Department task force for not identifying an investor to take ownership of the facility in the Helmand province before beginning construction on the project. The task force found an Afghan-based juice and produce company willing to take over the complex by August 2012, but the business backed out after suffering extensive damage to a similar facility it operates in Kabul, the nation’s capital, according to the report. The agency said that identifying investors before making building such facilities will “reduce the risk of wasted funds resulting from completed but unused facilities.” The task force agreed with SIGAR’s assessment and said it is continuously incorporating lessons learned. The storage facility is located in Gereshk, Afghanistan. (Courtesy of SIGAR). SIGAR described the Helmand project, which provides about 10,000 square feet of cold storage and 13,000 square feet of dry storage, as well-constructed. “Such a facility would likely improve the ability of local Afghan farmers to preserve fruits and vegetables for sale to national and international markets, which could generate revenues far greater than selling their produce locally,” the report said.


How can Americans be fighting for Israel in Gaza? Some background

under U.S. law. Thousands jam the streets of Haifa to honor the "lone soldier" Sean Carmeli, a native of Texas with no family in Israel. Many other Jewish Americans join the IDF through programs like Garin Tzabar, which provides a framework for Jews across the world to move to Israel and join the military. Men interested in joining must be between 18 and 23, while women must be between 18 and 22. They must be able to speak Hebrew, have no criminal record and have completed high school, among other requirements. Some 1,500 teens from across the world have joined the IDF through Garin Tazbar over the last 20 years, the IDF said last year. More than 70 percent have stayed in Israel after serving, Israeli officials say. More broadly, the State Department acknowledges that U.S. citizens who live in another country may be subject to compulsory military service in that country. There is little the United States can do to prevent it, but U.S. officials warn that there are potential complications. “Military service by U.S. nationals may cause problems in the conduct of our foreign relations since such service may involve U.S. nationals in hostilities against countries with which we are at peace,” State Department officials said. “For this reason, U.S. nationals facing the possibility of foreign military service should do what is legally possible to avoid such service.” U.S. officials add, however, that military service for foreign countries “usually does not cause loss of nationality” in the United States because it is difficult to establish the intention to relinquish it. “On the other hand, voluntary service in the armed forces of a state engaged in hostilities against the United States could be viewed as indicative of an intention to relinquish U.S. nationality,” the State Department says. That includes armed groups identified as terrorist organizations, which the United States has cracked down on significantly since the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. U.S. citizens have been known to join other foreign military forces, however, especially the French Foreign Legion. The organization is a branch of the French Army that is open to both French citizens and foreigners. The legion has long had a reputation for drawing a mix of criminals and adventure seekers, and has deployed in recent years to Afghanistan and Mali, the north African country where the French launched military operations against militant groups affiliated with Al Qaeda.


Photographs emerge of shrapnel damage on Malaysia Airlines Flight 17

w shrapnel & blown apart by SAM http://t.co/BzVvDq9ndq http://t.co/PN2rr50mDs The images show pieces of the aircraft riddled with holes roughly the size of a child’s fist. Evidence, some experts say, of a surface-to-air missile’s distinct detonation pattern. “Although many of the holes may vary in size, the punctures seen in the photograph attached are relatively uniform in size, consistent with patterns exhibited by fragmentary warheads detonated at a proximity from the target,” Jane’s Military Capabilities Manager Reed Foster said in an e-mail. “This would potentially be consistent with a fragmentation type warhead employed upon a number of modern and legacy surface-to-air missile systems.” Most surface-to-air missiles, such as those fired by the SA-11 or Buk M1 systems that the U.S. believes shot down MH17, detonate more than 50 feet away from their intended target. This premature detonation allows for a maximum spread of fragmentation into the airframe, damaging or destroying critical components to the aircraft including the engines, flaps and wings. The pictures on Twitter also show a large amount of shrapnel impacts on what appears to be the cockpit portion of the aircraft. This overabundance of damage to the front of the plane potentially rules out an air-to-air missile attack, as a jet firing a missile at another aircraft usually engages from the rear. Additionally, surface-to-air missiles are traditionally more lethal as they contain larger explosive payloads than their air-to-air counterparts. “There are historic examples of civilian aircraft surviving air-to-air missile engagement, but not of surface-to-air engagements, presumably due to the higher explosive yield/blast-wave as well as significantly more fragmentary materiel,” Foster wrote. Yet according to James Hackett, a senior fellow for Defense and Military Analysis at The International Institute for Strategic Studies, even though most evidence points to a surface-to-air attack it is still impossible to be completely sure without pieces of the warhead that destroyed MH17. “Without additional evidence…either in the form of additional fuselage sections or fragments from the weapon itself (such as from the warhead or casing) it is impossible to be more specific in identifying the precise mode of engagement or, definitively, the system employed,” Hackett wrote in an e-mail. RELATED: Images of the Malaysia air crash over Ukraine Malaysia Airlines jet carrying 298 people fell in a field in Ukraine. View Photo Gallery —A Malaysia Airlines plane carrying 298 people and traveling from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, falls in a Ukrainian field.


Pyeongchang 2018 Winter Olympics preparations aren’t going well and South Korean officials are investigating why

Pyeongchang Mayor Sok-ra waves the Olympic flag during the closing ceremony for the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics in February. (Marko Djurica/Reuters) Hosting the Olympics or World Cup? Better be prepared for an investigation. Along with Russia, the host of the 2014 Winter Olympics and 2018 World Cup, Brazil, host of the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics, and Qatar, the host of the 2022 World Cup, Pyeongchang, South Korea is now joining the list. The host of the 2018 Winter Olympics has been under investigation over its preparations for the games, South Korean said Tuesday. The Associated Press reports: The confirmation by the Seoul-based Board of Audit and Inspection came one day after the resignation of organizing committee chief Kim Jin-sun. Kim stepped down saying new leadership is needed. South Korean media reported he was fired by the government over poor preparations for the games, citing delays in construction of the speedskating venue and lack of progress in signing major sponsorship deals. However, whether the audit, which began in late May and ended on July 11, centers on either of those two issues is unclear. Nor is it clear whether Jun-sun’s resignation had anything to do with the investigation, the full results of which should be released in three months. The Associated Press reports: [Officials in the eastern Gangwon province, which includes Pyeongchang], who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to give their names under department rules, said the construction delay should have nothing to do with Kim’s resignation because building issues are overseen by provincial officials, not by the organizing committee. At least one thing seems certain: Unlike Russia, Brazil and Qatar, South Korea has yet to come under fire for human rights reasons. Hopefully it won’t.


case studies of Nigeria, Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, Rwanda, and Kenya. The primary assumption is that any effort to comprehend identity politics in Africa today requires an understanding of three primary factors: - the weight of history; - the institutions that shape politics in particular circumstances; and - the perceptions of cultural identity among ethnic groups and individuals. The case studies highlight important examples of how conflicts can occur at all levels during the process of political change. The Nigerian case considers the legacy of British colonial rule and the implications of the Biafran War, which threatened the very existence of Nigeria as a multi-ethnic nation state not long after Nigeria’s independence. That country’s leaders over the past 40-odd years have attempted to create a sense of national identity among more than 250 disparate ethnic groups in a country of almost 180 million. The design and implementation of affirmative action policies based on “The Federal Character Principle” are carefully considered in this study. The Ethiopia case study In the case of Côte d’Ivoire, from the beginning of the postcolonial period, conflicts over citizenship relating to land rights in certain parts of the country eventually led to a definition of citizenship based on autochthony or ancestral communities. This ancestral locale-based definition of citizenship – named Ivoirité – led to the exclusion of presidential candidates and involved questions of whether a given village was located in the country’s postcolonial boundaries. Tensions growing out of this situation led to two civil wars and to constitutional reforms that redefined who can claim Ivorian citizenship. In Rwanda, although two major groups, the Tutsi (14 per cent) and the Hutu (85 per cent) account for the majority of the population and historically belonged to the same ethnic group, colonial-era rulers presumed them to belong to distinctive racial groups. Toward the end of the colonial period a social revolution occurred as the Hutu claimed to be the only autochthonous citizens of Rwanda. In contrast, they viewed the Tutsi as foreigners and oppressive minorities. Eventually this led to the 1994 Rwanda genocide as the Tutsi attempted to reclaim their birthright lost during the revolution. In the end, invading Tutsi forces once again reversed the social order and established a regime dominated by Tutsi. The Kenyan case study Are conflicts over citizenship inevitable in Africa? **** See earlier posts in TMC’s First Annual African Politics Reading Spectacular. Edmond J. Keller


Air Force general: U.S. isn’t bluffing on evidence in shootdown of Malaysian jet

A United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket blasts off from Cape Canaveral carrying the second Space-Based Infrared System GEO-2 satellite for the U.S. Air Force. (Photo by Pat Corkery/United Launch Alliance) The Russian government has challenged the Obama administration to make public the satellite imagery and other intelligence that U.S. officials have cited as evidence that separatists destroyed the Malaysia Airlines plane with an SA-11 missile. On Tuesday, the commander of the Air Force’s Space Command, which operates satellites that can detect missile launches around the world, declined to elaborate on what, exactly, the U.S. military was able to observe from space at the time of the shootdown. But the commander, Gen. William L. Shelton, was dismissive of Russian suggestions that the U.S. government was bluffing or exaggerating its evidence. “It looks like an act of desperation,” Shelton said of demands from Russian military leaders that Washington make public any satellite imagery it collected from eastern Ukraine around the time of the aviation disaster. “I will say this about our satellites: They are very good satellites. They are very sensitive and they are very accurate.” The Pentagon operates a constellation of satellites — known as the Space-Based Infrared System — that can detect missile launches from outer space. Shelton said infrared sensors on the satellites provide blanket global coverage, “24-7, all the time.” The satellites, he said, can detect launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles and the launches of other satellites into space. But he declined to say whether they could observe other classes of missiles, such as the SA-11 anti-aircraft system allegedly used to shoot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. “We just don’t talk about it,” he said of the satellites’ specific capabilities.


Nine things to know about Sauf Haus, Dupont’s new rooftop beer garden

Sauf Haus, Dupont Circle's three-story, German-inspired beer garden, opens to the public Thursday at 4 p.m. Here are nine things to know about the 18th Street destination for pretzels, lager, foosball and oompah music. Sauf Haus's 2000-square-foot rooftop deck features a long bar and communal dining tables. Don't try to save seats. (Photo by Fritz Hahn/The Washington Post) It's going to be Oktoberfest year-round. Downstairs, the two smaller floors are inspired by rustic German taverns, with cuckoo clocks, exposed wood and a foosball table, which will be free to play. The roof will be open late. The downstairs bars will be open similar hours, and may be open later. Judging by the name, this is a place to drink. A lot. Those with a long memory might remember that "Sauf Haus" wasn't the new operation's original name. When the original liquor license application was submitted back in 2011, the place was going to be named "Guitar Bar," after the legendary Guitar Store that occupied the second floor of the building from 1922 to 2011. Owner Edwin Villegas, who also owns the neighboring Public Bar, eventually decided to change the name to focus on his partners' shared love of Oktoberfest and German beer. Those 16 German beers on tap are joined by 5 American craft beers in cans. But while having so many German beers is a cool concept, it can be a little limiting, says bar manager Pablo Brown, who also likes the German-style beers from Pennsylvania-based Troegs. "Troegs is an amazing brewery, but we're sticking to our guns and only selling German beers on tap, so we'll sell their beer in cans." Other canned craft beers will come from Sweetwater, Twin Lakes and Goose Island. There will also be cider for the gluten-free crowd. Even the cocktails will have German beer in them. Speaking of drinking, there's a happy hour. Hungry? Try a huge pretzel! They aren't taking reservations. Still got World Cup fever? Sauf Haus, 1216 18th St. NW. 202-466-3355. www.saufhausdc.com. Opens July 24.


‘Foreign Fighters’ for Israel

House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, volunteered for IDF roles during security crises. In the late 1990s, the Mahal2000 program encouraged Jewish youth from abroad to serve in combat units for stints of 14 months. The IDF today incorporates this successor program as one option for service by non-citizens. Thousands of Western Jews have now volunteered, sought by the IDF to fill manpower gaps, resulting in what has been termed the “Diaspora’s Foreign Legion.” The legal status of this sort of foreign fighter has long been open to debate. The United States banned its citizens from becoming foreign fighters while George Washington was still in the White House, despite its reliance on foreign fighters like the Marquis de Lafayette during its own revolution. Other famous volunteers, nationalists such as Tadeusz Kosciuszko of Poland, and Italy’s Giuseppe Garibaldi who led rebels in Brazil, demonstrated the threat of blow back against home governments by returning militants long before the birth of the jihad movement. Today nearly every country has some rule against foreign military or paramilitary participation. But these rules are as varied as academic definitions of foreign fighters. The United States, for example, bans foreign military recruitment, revokes citizenship for Americans who become officers of foreign militaries, and occasionally prosecutes individuals for joining groups determined to be working against national interests. But there is no penalty for serving in another country’s military or in a rebel group deemed non-hostile to the United States, and particularly that of one deemed to be an ally. Additionally, there could be a legal dynamic with dual American-Israeli citizens, who are required to serve as Israelis in the military, though that has not yet become a concern. Like the French Foreign Legion, programs sponsored by the Israeli Ministries of Defense and Absorption to attract and serve the needs of Lone Soldiers are run online or in person from Israel, so they do not fall afoul of the sovereignty of other states. The diaspora Jews who become IDF volunteers are convinced that Israel is uniquely singled out for de-legitimation and requires their contribution to its defense. If history is any indication, efforts to block such volunteering will only raise threat perceptions and increase volunteering, ensuring that the Lone Soldiers will not want for companionship. David Malet is a senior lecturer in international relations at the University of Melbourne and associate director of the Melbourne School of Government.


Washington starts hunt for a ‘model city’ for wireless experimentation

words, the unpredictable messiness of city living is what is needed to demonstrate whether dynamic sharing can ever evolve from a promising technology of the future to a viable solution for the federal government's spectrum management challenges. The ideal test city? According to NTIA, which is leading the project along with the Federal Communications Commission, it will be an urban area with a large, diverse pool of possible users and possibly an academic or research community willing to roll up its sleeves and try spectrum sharing on for size. The test city would, in the best case, offer up for telecommunications purposes its resources, including its roadways and utility poles, in much the same way has happened with Google Fiber in Kansas City and elsewhere. Landlocked Chicago is one possibility, as it is outside the range of naval radar. Wilmington, N.C., is another, as it has served as a testing ground on unlicensed, empty spectrum "white spaces" in the past. But NTIA cautions that no decisions have been made. Part of what is driving the "model city" concept, whose cost has been pegged at $60 million for the first three years of operation, is the notion that commercial users have been reluctant to try sharing spectrum with the federal government, even given its considerable potential for wireless broadband and other technologies, out of a lack of certainty and transparency over how such public-private slicing up of a shared resource would work. A particular worry: that despite a stated interest from the federal government in exploring a "lights and sirens" approach -- that is, only using the available spectrum for public safety reasons during emergencies -- they might in practice become more skittish about possible radio interference. The test city would give all parties a chance to test out working relationships as much as new technologies. Brent Skorup is a research fellow with Mercatus Center's Technology Policy Program at George Mason University. "Dynamic spectrum sharing is still fairly theoretical at this point," he cautions, "and it could be decades before it becomes widespread." But the federal government, he says, doesn't have many other good, obvious options for upgrading its spectrum management. The potential is big. More spectrum, say many, means the possibility of more wireless innovation in the United States, with increased space on the radio waves freeing experimentation on everything from remote-controlled drones to new ways of delivering mobile broadband.


COMIC-CON 2014: DC Comics marks ‘Batman Day’ Wednesday with national celebration–and retail sales

For Wednesday’s “Batman Day,” retailers will offer a free retelling of the first Batman story. (courtesy of DC Comics) PLANES SHOT In a world filled with so many disasters and so much turmoil, it is no wonder that from silver screens to mobile screens, from comics shops to toy shops, superheroes are as popular as ever. “When the world gets scary, superheroes sales go up … ,” Brad Meltzer, the bestselling political-thriller author and comic-book creator, tells The Post’s Comic Riffs. “What resonates today is, as we look around at this scary world, we want someone to come save us.” And to Meltzer, no superhero resonates quite like Batman. It was in the run-up to World War II, in May of 1939, that the Caped Crusader made his debut, in the ominously titled Detective Comics book “The Case of the Chemical Syndicate,” immediately finding an eager national audience. Now, so many thousands of crime-fighting adventures later, DC Comics will celebrate the 75th anniversary of the iconic character by declaring July 23 “Batman Day” – as comic-book outlets around the country partner with the publisher to offer various Bat-birthday collectibles, as well as a new comic written by Meltzer himself. DC is also timing its Batman event to coincide with the Wednesday-night kickoff of San Diego Comic-Con, the mighty granddaddy of American pop-culture conventions and festivals that draws more than 125,000 fans to the bayside San Diego Convention Center over four-and-a-half days of geek heaven. And Batman has even had a huge hand in that: Comic-Con — which arose in the wake of the character’s hit ’60s TV show — enjoyed a huge growth spurt in the ’90s as Tim Burton’s Batman movies starring Michael Keaton reignited Hollywood’s interest in superheroes (“After the first Keaton film, everyone at Comic-Con had on a Batman T-shirt,” says DC publisher Jim Lee by phone from California). Burton even acknowledged to The Post at the 2009 Comic-Con that his films had a hand in the event’s march toward becoming massive. To help celebrate the Batman anniversary, DC Entertainment will have a sizable presence at this year’s Comic-Con. On Thursday, Lee and DC chief creative officer Geoff Johns will share the stage with fellow comics creators Neal Adams, Grant Morrison, Denny O’Neil and Scott Snyder, as well as the Maryland-sprung legend Frank Miller, for the panel “Batman 75: Legends of the Dark Knight.” And on Saturday,


The man who wants to make sure climate change doesn’t ruin your beer

Ian Hughes manages Goose Island Brewery, a business that is dependent on 56,000 gallons of water from Lake Michigan each day to make its craft brews. Ian is concerned by pollution because torrential rains can inject sewage into the water supply. (Carlos Javier Ortiz for The Washington Post) CHICAGO — On a recent evening, two inches of rain soaked this city, overwhelming the sewers and forcing human waste into the Chicago River. It triggered an outfall sensor. Ian Hughes’s iPhone chirped. New e-mail. He clicked the link, shook his head. Another day, another storm. Another threat to his favorite beverage, a threat his government blames on a warming world. Hughes, 32, is the assistant manager of Goose Island Beer Company. Like a sudsy Clark Kent, he leads a double life: By day, he makes beer. On nights and weekends, he defends it. Goose Island uses about 50,000 gallons of Lake Michigan water every day to produce a rotating selection of craft brews. The bestseller, poured countrywide, is 312 Urban Wheat Ale. That beer mostly starts out as water from Chicago’s municipal supply, which is copious, glittering and immortalized in two blue bands on the city’s flag. The water is a brewer’s dream. Hughes wants to keep it that way. Climate change appears to be complicating his task. Nowadays, sewage empties into the Chicago River when an inch of rain falls city-wide, according to the Natural Resources Defense Council. Hughes, a self-described water fanatic, signed up for a city e-mail alert to track how often this happens: 36 days this year and 63 days last year. When five-inch storms drench Chicago in a 12-hour window, the river is reversed away from the Mississippi Basin and into Lake Michigan, shutting down the beach for three days and tainting Goose Island’s most important resource. That happened about once every 10 years until the 1970s, city records show. In the past five years, it’s happened three times. The National Climate Change Assessment, released by the Obama administration in May, claims the “frequency and intensity” of these downpours could triple in the Midwest during the next century. Scientists blame climate change, though rainfall patterns are murkier to gauge than rising sea levels. About 40 percent of the region’s annual rainfall can come from the 10 heaviest storms — the kind that propel feces into fresh water. Hughes can’t single-handedly fix Chicago’s water woes, which never