Are auto loans the next subprime market to worry about?

Across the country, banks and other lenders are still being stingy in providing credit to ordinary consumers. Only the most financially stable of Americans can secure mortgages. Small businesses are having trouble getting loans. Credit card access is restricted. Getty Images But there’s one notable exception, an area where lending has been surging: Autos. Millions of Americans have found that it’s becoming surprisingly easy to borrow money to buy a car. New bank loans for autos totaled $47.5 billion in the first quarter of 2012, higher than at any point in the past seven years, according to Equifax. Interest rates are getting cheaper by the month. And even Americans with relatively poor finances can get auto loans: The average person financing a new car purchase had a credit score of 760, down six points from the previous quarter, according to new data from Experian. For a used car, the average credit score was down to 659. “The spigots are being opened,” said Peter McNally, an analyst at Moody’s. “The finance companies are really stepping in to fill a need.” There are a few reasons why auto loans are booming in an economy where credit is largely clogged. Vehicle sales have surged this year, as Americans are finally starting to trade in their aging cars and trucks. The auto industry sold 7.3 million units in the first six months of 2012, up 14.8 percent from the previous year. The market for, say, houses hasn’t been nearly as robust. But there’s another, less-noticed factor: Investors and private-equity firms are rushing to buy securities made up of bundles of car loans, seeing these assets as both safe and lucrative. In the first six months of this year, the nation’s largest auto lenders, such as GM Financial and Santander Consumer USA, have pawned off $10 billion of their subprime auto loans on investors, a 20 percent increase over the same period last year. That gives these lenders more capacity to loan to consumers with questionable credit histories and, in turn, helps drive auto sales even higher. It may seem surprising that private-equity firms and other investors are willing to pour billions into auto-backed securities after getting burned by similar mortgage-backed securities when the housing bubble burst. But, analysts say, the auto market is different than housing in several key respects. For one, Americans appear to be less willing to default on their car payments


How air conditioning transformed the U.S. economy

— but indoor climate control is a major feature of the industrialized West. And it appears to have large economic benefits. Stan Cox, in his fascinating book, "Losing Our Cool," offers a long list of ways in which air conditioning has transformed the U.S. economy. Here's a description from the National Building Museum of the state of affairs in the 1920s, before the invention of AC: Before air-conditioning, American life followed seasonal cycles determined by weather. Workers' productivity declined in direct proportion to the heat and humidity outside — and on the hottest days employees left work early and businesses shut their doors. Stores and theaters also closed down, unable to comfortably accommodate large groups of people in stifling interiors. Cities emptied in summers.... Houses and office buildings were designed to enhance natural cooling, and people spent summer days and evenings on porches or fire escapes. Everything changed after the discovery in 1928 of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which were used as coolants in air-conditioning (and, we later learned, chewed a hole in the ozone layer). Retail stores could now operate year-round. Americans could flock to otherwise inhospitable regions in the South and Southwest. Cox has even argued that AC was a major factor in the resurgence of the Sunbelt-based Republican Party. But there's a flip side. All this AC could prove unsustainable. The amount of energy consumed by U.S. homes for air conditioning has doubled in the past 12 years, according to Cox, and now accounts for nearly 20 percent of our electricity use. What's more, developing countries like China and India want in on what's viewed as an utter necessity. The New York Times recently reported that sales of AC units are rising 20 percent per year in those two nations. If all of these countries keep burning coal to satisfy demand for indoor cooling, the result will be more carbon dioxide in the air. (The newer, ozone-friendly HFCs used in the units are also highly potent greenhouse gases.) That means a hotter planet overall, which will, in turn, require even more air conditioning to survive. As a reminder, here's how frequent 100°F days will become across the United States if carbon emissions keep rising at their current rate: Source: Global Climate Change Report, 2009 The current "freak heat wave" will become the norm for one-sixth of the year in D.C. (That's in addition to all the other climate consequences


Who will get high-speed rail first: California or the Northeast?

Freemark points out, the transportation bill that passed last week contained precisely zero additional funding for high-speed rail. One possibility, floated by California Gov. Jerry Brown (D), is that the state will use revenues from its carbon cap-and-trade program to build the line, although the state's Legislative Analyst Office has raised questions about whether this is even legal. 2) Amtrak's Northeast Corridor. On Tuesday, Amtrak released its latest vision (pdf) for transforming its popular Northeast Corridor — which currently carries about 12 million travelers annually — and turning it into a true high-speed rail network. Instead of the Acela Express, which only rarely reaches top speeds, Amtrak's new trains would cruise at top speeds of 220 miles per hour. A trip from New York to Washington D.C. would take just 94 minutes, instead of the current three hours. Boston to D.C. would take three hours. As Alex Goldmark of Transportation Nation explains, Amtrak is actually making a more modest proposal compared to a version released in 2010: "[The new version] scales back the total cost, drops planned stations, and devotes much more attention to realistic, phased implementation," he writes. The project would roll out gradually, first acquiring new trains, then adding tracks in areas like New York and New Jersey, as well as building the new Gateway Tunnel across the Hudson River. Unlike California's plan, which starts as a link between two mid-sized cities, the Amtrak vision would continually provide benefits to a heavily trafficked rail route over the years, reducing travel times along the way (graph via Carl Franzen): Yet the Amtrak plan isn't cheap either — the whole thing would cost some $151 billion over the next 28 years. The company has commissioned a team to try to explore (pdf) other funding options, including fare increases and outside private investors. (Amtrak is also getting some of the high-speed rail stimulus money that Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) rejected.) But ultimately, Goldmark notes, the federal government would likely have to kick in more money to make high-speed Amtrak a reality. And even though Congress gave Amtrak a slightly bigger budget in the last transportation bill, at $1.2 billion, it doesn't look like there's a lot more forthcoming at the moment. Which means that the competition between California and the Northeast to build the nation's first high-speed rail work might prove to be one of the slowest races ever seen.


Hey, Not So Fast

is in New York. (Shut up or move there.) But I might start complaining about how much better it could be to get to New York. The World Congress on High Speed Rail is meeting in Philly this week, and as a preview, transportation experts from around the world convened on Capitol Hill on Tuesday. Ostensibly, they were there to explain what trains are like in their countries. My theory is they actually wanted to make us cry. Satoshi Seino, CEO of East Japan Railway Co., said its “bullet train” network — which has been in operation since 1964 — has headways of about four minutes. To put that in perspective, I had waited earlier that day for seven minutes for a Metro train (and I thought that was pretty good). Next waltzed up Guillaume Pepy, president of the French national rail authority, to say that his country has double-decker cars that can accommodate more than 1,000 passengers and travel at 200 mph. Oh, and the overall mission isn’t just to get people from one rail station to another, but to provide local, regional and intercity transit that’s a viable alternative to the automobile. By the time the rest of the international parade stepped away from the podium, I was too depressed to go back to Union Station. On Monday, Amtrak released an update to its “Vision for the Northeast Corridor,” which is essentially to put in legit high-speed rail. So, when will riders see this vision realized? 2040. And that’s assuming everything goes according to plan and the project gets funding. I wouldn’t count on either. At Tuesday’s gathering in D.C., American Public Transportation Association president Michael Melaniphy proudly noted the results of a survey conducted in May. A majority of the Americans polled said they’d be likely to use high-speed trains, and that number shoots up to three quarters of millennials. But we’ll all become members of AARP before ever getting to take that promised 94-minute trip between D.C. and New York. And while it’s nice that an L.A.-San Francisco route won approval last week, with a target date of 2028, I wouldn’t pin your HSR dreams on that yet. At least the visitors at Tuesday’s event seem to be more optimistic about these proposals than I am. The International Union of Railways’ Jean-Pierre Loubinoux ended things on a hopeful note: “Where there’s a will, there’s a railway.”


How droughts will reshape the United States

made last year's severe drought in Texas more likely to occur. That is, if it weren't for human-driven climate change, seasonal conditions in Texas should have looked more like they did in the 1960s, when rainfall was higher. That's one early, albeit tentative piece of evidence that the impacts of global warming are already being felt. (The NOAA study concedes, however, that "attribution of single extreme events to anthropogenic climate change remains challenging.") 4) And future global warming could seriously dry out the United States. This 2011 review paper (pdf) by Aiguo Dai of the National Center for Atmospheric Research summarizes much of what's known about climate change and drought. Computer models suggest that in North America, the rain won't go away. But warmer air temperatures and increased evaporation will dry out soils and make persistent droughts more likely in the next 20 to 50 years. (Again, these droughts aren't unprecedented, but they're expected to become more frequent.) Here's one projection of what the world could look like mid-century under a "moderate" emissions scenario: The Palmer Drought Severity Index mid-century under a moderate emissions scenario. Under the PDSI, "a reading of -4 or below is considered extreme drought." (Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research.) That's a model of predicted Palmer Drought Severity Index around the world by mid-century. Take a look at the United States, where the PDSI ranges from -4 to -8 in the Plains. As Joe Romm notes, the PDSI briefly spiked to -6 in the Plains during the Dust Bowl, but it rarely exceeded -3 for the rest of the 1930s. In other words, it's a forecast of drought conditions more severe than they were during the Dust Bowl. 5) Farmers can take steps to adapt, though a drier world could prove tough to navigate. Better farming techniques can soften some of the damage, the way erosion control has prevented Dust Bowl-type storms. Antle's paper suggests that the U.S. government may need to change some policies—for instance, subsidies for corn and soy can prevent adaptation by locking in current farming patterns. Meanwhile, Tom Philpott argues that organic farming may need to play a larger role in the future. While the practice often produces lower yields than industrial farming, a recent Nature paper found that soils managed with organic techniques tend to hold more water and perform better in droughts. And droughts are looking increasingly tough to avoid.


Could we block heat waves with artificial volcanoes?

the following summer. The catch, unfortunately, is that this sort of geoengineering could have all sorts of unexpected side effects, like mucking up the world's rainfall patterns. Nice and cool. (AP) But what if people tried to do this locally? Imagine if — to throw out a wild hypothetical — certain regions of the United States were suffering from a severe heat wave. Would it be possible for a state or local community to inject sulfate aerosols into the air just to cool these areas down? In theory, yes. But it's a very risky move. Four UCLA scientists recently wrote a paper on this exact topic and have just submitted it to the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. The researchers looked at the July 2006 heat wave in California, which lasted for 17 days and killed at least 140 people. In theory, the scientists found, it would have been possible to artificially cool California by injecting sulfate aerosols into the atmosphere, some seven miles up. Computer modeling suggests that temperatures in the Central Valley would have dropped by as much as 7°C in the hottest part of the afternoons, with smaller heat relief in Los Angeles and other coastal areas. But there would be serious downsides, too: For one, this would require a substantial amount of aerosol to be "lofted" into the atmosphere — and it would have to be launched into the air repeatedly, and for each region. That's not an easy task. More significantly, lacing the atmosphere with aerosols could mess with local rainfall patterns — a risky move for a region that's often afflicted by drought. It could also further deplete the ozone layer. Those side effects, the authors argue, make this sort of geoengineering a much riskier and less-preferable climate solution than cutting carbon emissions and slowing the pace of global warming the old-fashioned way. Yet this paper also highlights one of the legal quandaries around geoengineering. Right now, there are few rules governing these techniques. And at some point in the future, squirting sulfates into the air could become cheap enough that any local community could do it. So what if a region wilting under a heat wave decides to engage in a bit of artificial cooling, even if it ends up screwing up precipitation for a neighboring area or country? Who would stop them? How would that decision get made? (Link via David Biello.)


Could plankton help us tackle climate change?

As carbon emissions keep rising each year, with no end in sight, scientists have begun dreaming up all sorts of zany geoengineering schemes for slowing down the rate at which the planet's heating up. Artificial volcanoes to cool the air! Giant mirrors in space to deflect sunlight! Fertilizing the ocean with iron to mop up that carbon! Our heroes! (credit: Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research) As it turns out, that last idea might actually work. A team of researchers has published a new study in Nature showing that, under the right conditions, it's possible to lace the ocean with iron in order to stimulate the growth of phytoplankton. The tiny algae absorb carbon from the air during the course of photosynthesis, and when they die, the carbon gets buried deep down on the ocean floor. It's a potentially promising technique. Yet other scientists warn that even if this plankton scheme worked, it would likely only play a small part of any effort to tackle climate change. Here's the basic idea: Phytoplankton in the ocean require iron, phosphorus and nitrogen to grow. Yet there are vast ocean regions in the South and around the Equator that lack sufficient iron. So, the theory goes, adding iron to these areas would stimulate the growth of extra phytoplankton, which would scoop up additional carbon dioxide from the air. If many of those organisms, called diatoms, then died and sank down to the ocean floor, the carbon would be sequestered, possibly for centuries. Trouble is, past experiments to prove this haven't worked out well. In 2009, a team of German and Indian researchers fertilized 115 square miles in the South Atlantic with iron. It triggered a bloom of phytoplankton. But some of the algae got swept away by ocean currents, so it was difficult to know what happened to the carbon. Others attracted a herd of hungry crustaceans, which ate the plankton and (eventually) recycled the carbon back into the atmosphere. That defeated the whole purpose. So, this time around, a team of researchers, led by Victor Smetacek and Christine Klaas of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Germany, tried something different. They essentially created a swirling eddy in the ocean and dissolved iron into the seawater. The confined area saw a surge of microscopic life — several species of diatoms that blossomed as they absorbed carbon dioxide


Reconciliation

— A summary of social science research on gun violence. See also Donohue and Ayres' study. — Spain's rash of baby thefts. — What the Olympics would look like if steroids were legal. — If we legalized pot, it'd be so cheap stores could give it away like bar nuts. — Stephanie Cutter retroactively retires, apologizes for Bain attacks (not really). — "Oral health. 2012. That's how we do."


What we know about climate change and drought

Palmer Drought Severity Index mid-century under a moderate emissions scenario. Under the PDSI, "a reading of -4 or below is considered extreme drought." (Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research.) That’s a look at predicted Palmer Drought Severity Index around the world. Take a look at the United States, where the PDSI ranges as high as -6 to -7 in the Great Plains. For context, the PDSI briefly spiked to -6 in that area during the Dust Bowl, but it rarely exceeded -3 for the rest of the 1930s. In other words, there's a possibility of persisting drought conditions more severe as the Dust Bowl within the next two decades. This 2011 review paper (pdf) by Aiguo Dai of the National Center on Atmospheric Research offers more detail about what's expected to happen in North America if the world keeps heating up. Rainfall won't go away. In parts of the Midwest, it will even increase. But modeling suggests that warmer air temperatures and increased evaporation will dry out soils and make persistent droughts more likely in the next 20 to 50 years. Dai also told me, via e-mail, that expected natural changes in Pacific Ocean cycles could very well intensify drought trends for the United States in the coming decades. (His study on this is forthcoming in the journal Nature Climate Change.) 6) Farmers can take steps to adapt, though a drier world will be tougher to navigate. If that were to happen, the world would have to shift where it gets its food. Better farming techniques could soften some of the damage, the way erosion control has prevented Dust Bowl-type storms. And Tom Philpott argues that organic farming may need to play a larger role in the future. While the practice often produces lower yields than industrial farming, a recent Nature paper found that soils managed with organic techniques tend to hold more water and perform better in droughts. For a more detailed look at how the world could boost its agricultural yields under stress, see Jonathan Foley's recent essay (pdf) in Scientific American. There are plenty of steps that can be taken, from limiting crop biofuels to reducing food waste. Still, maintaining the world's food supply — at a time, it should be noted, when the global population is expected to keep growing to 10 billion — isn't going to be an easy task in a hotter, drought-filled world.


Day 2: Women’s gymnastics, men’s basketball, Phelps swims again

38, is oldest to score Olympic goal 6:29 pm Germans beat U.S. women, 2-1 6:13 pm Dalhausser, Rogers cruise in beach volleyball 5:56 pm Spence keeps U.S. boxing unbeaten 5:50 pm Hsing’s table tennis run ends in third round 5:19 pm Solo won’t be disciplined for Twitter rant 5:17 pm Ross, Kessy relax on the beach 5:12 pm Ramirez gives U.S. boxing its third win 5:05 pm France overcomes Lochte, U.S. men in 4×100 relay 4:20 pm Franklin is second qualifier in 100-meter back 4:05 pm U.S. eventing team is seventh after dressage 3:57 pm U.S. men’s water polo edges Montenegro 3:52 pm Britain’s first swim medal; Silver for American 3:34 pm Medals standings update 3:23 pm Another swimming world record is set 3:22 pm Lochte advances to 200 free final 2:52 pm Dana Vollmer sets world record in 100 butterfly 2:43 pm Bethesda’s Parsons: ‘Not very competitive.’ 2:39 pm Vollmer sets world record, wins 100 butterfly 2:36 pm U.S. still atop women’s gymnastics 2:28 pm Japan, Senegal win in men’s soccer 2:20 pm Parsons fails to qualify for kayak semifinal 2:18 pm U.S. men’s badminton duo falls to Malaysia 2:05 pm Lochte will swim anchor on U.S. relay team 2:00 pm Sharapova doesn’t let the rain stop her 1:36 pm South Korea wins 7th straight gold in women’s archery 1:27 pm U.S. men’s volleyball stops Serbia 1:16 pm Women’s eight moves quickly into final 1:05 pm LeBron not worried about his scoring 1:02 pm Sharapova easily stops Peer in tennis 12:53 pm U.S. rowers seize second chance 12:48 pm U.S. boxers look to advance 12:47 pm China knocks out U.S. women’s archery team 12:22 pm U.S. pair in 10th, Brazilians stars of Star class 12:18 pm Dane wins first two Finn races 12:14 pm World champion gymnast fails to qualify in all-around 12:13 pm A kayaking photo you need to see 12:07 pm Not your grandfather’s Wimbledon 11:58 am Brazil men’s soccer beats Belarus 3-1 11:56 am Eichfeld misses canoe semifinals 11:55 am Jordyn Wieber misses gymnastics all-around final 11:50 am An Kum Ae, Lasha Shavdatuashvili win judo gold 11:49 am Murray advances; Sharapova up next 11:43 am 16-year-old advances in table tennis 11:38 am Vos wins cycling gold 11:35 am Team USA wins opener in blowout fashion 11:31 am Neymar’s curling free kick gives Brazil 2-1 lead 11:28 am Gymnastics standings after three subdivisions 11:17 am ‘Call Me


Spoiler alert? Not possible in this digital era

A battalion of Mary Poppinses descending from the sky during the Olympics’ Opening Cermonies? Spoiled. Ryan Lochte upsetting Michael Phelps in the 400 individual medley? Spoiled. Aly Raisman edging out world champion Jordyn Wieber? Spoiled. The U.S. men’s gymnastics team falling from grace? Spoiled. For me — and, I suspect, much of the time-delayed American Olympic audience — every wow moment, photo finish or edge-of-your-seat race has been anything but. I thought it would be easy. I’d just unplug. Ignore the Twitter feed. Stay off Facebook. Scroll past the headlines. #Spoileralert, #savethesurprise — all worthy sentiments, but I’ve learned over the past three days that they don’t save you from co-workers, spouses and talking heads telling you exactly what you don’t want to know. As reporter Tom Jackman noted in the Post’s Olympic Live Blog Sunday night: “In the all-electronic world of today, it was impossible not to know that very big stuff happened in women’s gymnastics and one of the men’s swimming relays — it just floats through the air into your brain.” Indeed. Olympics XXX: The year suspense junkies learned to surrender and enjoy the show when they already knew the ending.


Study: Nearly half of Americans die with ‘virtually no financial assets’

How much do senior citizens rely on Social Security? Even more than you might think. A new study finds that more than 46 percent of Americans die with less than $10,000 in financial assets, with many spending the end of their life strongly dependent on the government. (AFP) "Many of these households also have no housing wealth and rely almost entirely on Social Security benefits for support," says the study, co-authored by MIT's James Poterba, Dartmouth's Steven Venti, and Harvard's David Wise. But we don't always get the full financial picture. By other measures, however, "many of these households may be deemed to have been well-prepared for retirement, in the sense that their income in their final years was not substantially lower than their income in their late 50s or early 60s," the researchers conclude. Why should low financial asset levels be a problem, then, if these seniors' income seems to remain steady? After all, you can't take it with you. With almost no financial assets, these seniors "have little capacity to pay for unanticipated needs such as health expenses or other financial shocks or to pay for entertainment, travel, or other activities." In fact, the study suggests that there may be a notable connection between health and wealth, as less healthy seniors have significantly lower assets than healthier ones: "For example, the mean health percentile of persons with annuity income less than $10,000 and no financial assets is 24.1. For those with annuity income between $30,000 and $40.000 and financial assets between $25,000 and $50,000 the median health percentile is 43.3." That's part of the reason there's renewed interest in passing policies to help lower-income Americans build up their assets over the course of their life, as mortgage tax breaks and other assistance for asset-building predominantly benefit middle- and upper-income Americans. The study is also a reminder of the major impact that changes to Social Security would have for many ordinary Americans. "If we were to substantially reduce Social Security benefits for those later in life, that there is a share of the elderly households for whom that would translate very directly into reduced income, because they seem to have accumulated little in the way of financial resources," notes Poterba. (h/t Mark Thoma)


Reconciliation

- Wealthy Chinese sometimes hire body doubles to serve out their prison sentences. - It's so hot in Oklahoma that the squirrels are melting (well, kind of). - Louie CK says sorry a lot. - Doctors accuse the Komen Foundation of overselling mammography's benefits. - Big companies in India build their own power grids so they don't have to rely on the state.


Day 8: Phelps’s last race, Pistorius’s first, women’s tennis final

at half 3:37 pm All three American women qualify for 400 final 3:36 pm Field set for women’s 100-meter final 3:29 pm A final gold — and world record — for U.S. women 3:23 pm Williams sisters advance to gold medal match in doubles 3:19 pm Serbia water polo leads U.S. at half 3:11 pm Sun crushes his world record, wins gold in 1,500 3:03 pm Tianna Madison also reaches 100 final 3:03 pm Water polo: Serbia leads U.S. after 1st quarter 2:56 pm Russia rallies past U.S. men in five sets 2:53 pm Allyson Felix joins Jeter in 100 final 2:50 pm Kromowidjojo gets second gold in 50 free 2:43 pm Carmelita Jeter advances to 100 final 2:39 pm Hardy places seventh in women’s 50 free 2:38 pm U.S. runners reach men’s 400 hurdles final 2:33 pm Williams sisters take opening set of doubles semifinal 2:29 pm Watkins advances in men’s sprint 2:21 pm U.S. women’s epee team wins bronze by one touch 2:08 pm Brazil edges short-handed Honduras 2:01 pm U.S. women win pursuit silver, Britain sets world record 2:01 pm Serena Williams and the All England Club crip walk 1:52 pm Americans jump cleanly, except Madden 1:39 pm China’s Chen Ding wins men’s 20-kilometer race walk 1:34 pm American boxer gets a second chance 1:29 pm Williams sisters face Russian pair in semifinals 1:24 pm Honduras, Brazil tied at 2 1:16 pm Italy’s Rossi takes trap gold medal 1:00 pm LaShawn Merritt hasn’t ruled out relay 12:52 pm Bryan brothers earn gold in men’s doubles 12:45 pm Honduras strikes first vs. Brazil 12:17 pm Li takes gold in women’s badminton 12:13 pm Mexico beats Senegal to reach soccer semis 12:12 pm Bryan brothers take first set 11:49 am Mexico leads Senegal 3-2 in extra time 11:48 am LeBron James helps U.S. hold off Lithuania — barely 11:20 am Krug, Loukas dive into Sunday’s 3m springboard finals 11:09 am U.S. men trailed in third quarter, lead narrowly 11:00 am Maclennan bounces to gold in trampoline 10:59 am Vinsant makes trampoline final 10:29 am Serena Williams wins Olympic tennis gold 10:25 am Suhr vaults into finals 10:22 am U.S. men’s basketball in a tight game at halftime 10:21 am Sharapova finally wins a game 10:11 am Krug, Loukas in good position after two semifinal dives 10:08 am Oscar Pistorius inspires fellow competitors 10:07 am Serena Williams takes 6-0, 3-0


The very squishy science of counting calories

Is this accurate? We're not quite sure. We have one standard metric in this country for the amount of energy in a given quantity of food: the calorie. Just about every food you can find in the grocery store, aside from fresh produce, comes branded with a calorie count. The new health-care law will soon require chain restaurants to post the caloric content of standard menu items. There's just one problem: The methodology for determining caloric content, developed about a century ago, may not be all that accurate. That is what scientists are learning as they try to answer what seems like a pretty simple question: How many calories does an almond have? Usually, food scientists do this in a fairly no-nonsense way: They light food on fire, and see how much energy is produced as a result (measured by how hot the water around the aforementioned burning food gets). You can play around with a virtual bomb calorimeter -- the apparent device of choice for burning foods -- here, and see the energy output for some hamburgers and tomatoes. Using that system, scientists have assigned a caloric value for every gram of protein (4 calories), carbohydrate (4 calories) and fat (9 calories). We now use these calorie measurements pretty much everywhere. But researchers have had a lot of trouble actually confirming that these coefficients are accurate. "During this past century, there have been few, if any, studies reporting on the energy value of a whole food within a mixed diet that could confirm the accuracy" of the coefficients, a team of USDA researchers write in this month's Journal of American Clinical Nutrition. They decided to try out a new method of measuring caloric content, using almonds as their guinea pig. They ran a controlled study in which some people ate almonds, and others didn't. Then they measured how much fat was exiting the participants' bodies -- you can figure out where they turned to get that metric. What they found, as described by study author David Bear: "When people are consuming nuts, the amount of fat in the feces goes up. And that suggests that we're not absorbing all the fat or calories that's in the nut." In other words, there's might be a whole lot of fat in almonds that shows up in a bomb calorimeter, but a good amount of it never gets absorbed by the body.


Day 9: Usain Bolt, men’s tennis final, beach volleyball

and post-Olympic plans 7:35 pm Man arrested for throwing bottle on track 7:16 pm Kate Middleton’s Olympic credentials 7:11 pm Bolt: ‘This is where I want to become a legend’ 6:38 pm Kessy, Ross move on to semifinals 6:26 pm Bolt celebrates 100 victory with Olympic mascot 5:31 pm Your take on Usain Bolt’s #100meters win 5:14 pm Bolt sets Olympic record in 100 meters 4:58 pm Kenyan wins gold in men’s steeplechase 4:50 pm U.S. women’s volleyball still unbeaten 4:38 pm Bolt takes aim at history in 100 meter 4:35 pm Sanya Richards-Ross takes gold in 400 4:20 pm No Americans in the men’s 400 final 4:12 pm Pistorius falters in 400-meter semifinal 4:03 pm Matthew Centrowitz advances to 1,500 final 3:41 pm U.S. women’s water polo into semifinals 3:31 pm Share your #100meters reactions on Twitter 3:30 pm Blake and Gay join the 100-meter field 3:15 pm Wu crushes field in winning springboard gold 3:06 pm All 3 U.S. women advance in 400 hurdles 3:03 pm Bolt, Bailey advance to 100 final 2:59 pm May-Treanor, Walsh Jennings advance to semis 2:52 pm Gatlin advances to 100-meter final 2:51 pm Busy track and field night underway 2:07 pm Germans beat U.S. for bronze in team foil 2:07 pm Azarenka, Mirnyi deny Murray mixed doubles gold 2:04 pm Denmark’s Hansen wins Omnium gold 2:04 pm Beijing medalists all advance to sprint cycling quarterfinals 1:36 pm Murray talks about unforgettable win 1:36 pm U.S. women’s basketball routs China 1:29 pm Watkins loses in sprint cycling quarterfinals 1:23 pm Saudis, British lead in show jumping 1:19 pm No medal for American weightlifters 1:16 pm Hansen takes back Omnium lead 1:02 pm U.S. women’s basketball extends lead 12:28 pm Americans 10th early in synchronized swimming 12:26 pm Ainslie wins fourth straight sailing gold 12:22 pm U.S. women’s basketball leads China 12:11 pm Russian weightlifter sets world record 11:57 am Hungary’s Berki wins pommel horse on tiebreaker 11:35 am Murray crushes Federer for Olympic gold 11:18 am Holley Mangold a bit shaky early 11:12 am China wins doubles gold, sweeps badminton 11:08 am VIDEO: Phelps finishes career with gold 11:01 am Murray takes 6-2, 6-1 lead over Federer 10:45 am Aussie Diamond leads trap qualifying 10:43 am Maroney falls to silver in vault 10:33 am Murray up 5-0 in second set of men’s tennis final 10:29 am Nick Mangold in the house to watch


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Day 11: Usain Bolt, gymnastics, women’s basketball, beach volleyball

Jennings advance to gold medal match 1:52 pm Athletes love their tape, but does it work? 1:41 pm Chris Hoy wins men’s keirin, his sixth career gold medal 1:39 pm Coach: Wieber may have stress fracture in leg 1:26 pm Peralta gives Mexico 2-1 lead 1:26 pm Japan, Mexico tied in men’s soccer semifinal 1:03 pm Chinese dominate table tennis 12:53 pm Raisman wins gold for floor routine, finishes with 3 medals 12:20 pm U.S. water polo advances to final 12:00 pm U.S. leads Australia 11-9 in overtime 11:50 am U.S., Australia head to OT in water polo semi 11:43 am The only mystery: Who would get silver? 11:42 am Americans take fifth, sixth in horizontal bar 11:30 am How Raisman went from fourth to bronze 11:28 am Russians don’t disappoint in synchro 11:24 am U.S. hanging on against Australia after 3 11:21 am Gabby Douglas reflects on her Olympics 11:17 am Six down, six to go in synchro 11:05 am U.S. women’s water polo leads at half 11:04 am U.S. women rout Canada in quarterfinals 10:50 am Raisman takes bronze on rescored balance beam 10:43 am Synchronized swimming final: Judge for yourself 10:36 am Hammer retains Omnium lead by one point 10:29 am Gabby Douglas slips off balance beam 10:22 am China’s Sui sets high mark in beam; Douglas on deck 10:05 am Spanish woman easily wins RS-X gold 10:01 am Lester loses Greco-Roman quarterfinal 9:57 am Singapore wins doubles bronze 9:45 am Coach: Liu Xiang’s Achilles again culprit 9:44 am Van Rijsselberge sails to RS-X gold 9:35 am Good seats still available at gymnastics 9:32 am Senior Olympic Synchronized Swimming 9:26 am Douglas, Wieber are back in action 8:52 am American Taylor leads triple jump qualifying 8:44 am British brothers take gold, bronze in triathlon 8:41 am Spearmon likes his chances vs. Bolt 8:32 am Ethiopians, Kenyans dominate women’s 5,000 8:19 am British brothers near lead after triathlon bike leg 8:06 am Summing up the men’s 200 heats 7:56 am Spearmon second in 200 heat; Quinonez sets pace 7:39 am Jamaicans, Mitchell advance in 200 7:34 am American Johnson misses kayak final 7:18 am Britain’s Brownlee brothers near lead after swim 7:10 am Usain Bolt advances into 200 semis 7:03 am Dumais joins Chinese pair in springboard finals 6:57 am American hurdlers advance but Liu out again 6:54 am Xiang Liu out of hurdles — again 6:15 am


The Original Top Chef

The National Museum of American History will reopen Julia Child’s kitchen from Aug. 15 to Sept. 3, 2012, in honor of the late chef’s 100th birthday. On Aug. 15, which would have been Julia Child’s 100th birthday, tributes will undoubtedly pour in from Food Network personalities and “Top Chef”-testants. But when Child — who died in 2004 at 91 — first began sharing her cooking lessons with TV audiences in the 1960s, those sorts of culinary VIPs did not yet exist. Julia Child was the celebrity chef. In her honor, restaurants nationwide have organized Julia Child Restaurant Week (Aug. 7-15), sponsored by the Julia Child Foundation for Gastronomy & the Culinary Arts and her publisher, Alfred A. Knopf. Here’s what to expect from four D.C. restaurants. Marcel’s The special at Marcel’s is designed for two: whole roast tarragon chicken with assorted sides, all made from Child’s recipes ($85 prix-fixe for two). Chef de cuisine Paul Stearman marinates the chicken with garlic, lemons and herbs, then stuffs it with those ingredients and roasts it atop onions. Sides include carrots braised in butter, mushrooms in Madeira sauce and asparagus simmered in onions. There’s also gratin daphinoise, a baked casserole of potatoes, cream, butter, garlic, thyme and Gruyere cheese. Child would have approved, especially of the gratin, Stearman believes: “She always liked to say, ‘Whether baked or fried, roasted or boiled, I never met a potato I didn’t like.’ ” Marcel’s, 2401 Pennsylvania Ave. NW; 202-296-1166. (Foggy Bottom) Café Dupont Cafe Dupont is serving peach tarte tatin, a spin on one of Child’s favorite desserts. With a three-course prix-fixe meal with wine pairings ($50 per person), Café Dupont’s specials riff on Child’s French-influenced recipes. First, there’s parfait de foie de poulet (chicken liver parfait), followed by canard a l’orange (orange-glazed roast duck). Dessert, however, is a deviation from Child’s apple tarte tatin (upside-down tart); executive sous chef David Fritsche uses peaches instead of apples, taking advantage of the fruit’s seasonality, and serves it alongside amaretto ice cream. Fritsche, 28, who was raised in Switzerland, wasn’t familiar with Child until he moved to the U.S. four years ago. “I admire the passion she had,” he says. “Sometimes she tried to do things and it didn’t come out the way she wanted it to. She said, ‘It didn’t work the first time, but let’s try it again.’ And that’s pretty much my philosophy as a


Olympic Meddling

Bye-bye, 2012 Olympics! After Aug. 12, you’ll be history. I’ll miss you. But you’ve left me with a lot to think about: Gold-medalist swimmer Ryan Locht At 60, how does Bob Costa Some female beach vollyballists NBC didn’t air events live Glued to the Olympics,


South Africa’s Oscar Pistorius and Willem de Beer react after their team did not finish in the men’s 4x400m relay round 1 heat during the London 2012 Olympic Games

South Africa’s Oscar Pistorius (R) and Willem de Beer react after their team did not finish in the men’s 4x400m relay round 1 heat during the London 2012 Olympic Games at the Olympic Stadium August 9, 2012. REUTERS/David Gray (BRITAIN – Tags: OLYMPICS SPORT ATHLETICS)


Ethiopia’s gold medalist Meseret Defar celebrates after winning the women’s 5000m final at the athletics event of the London 2012 Olympic Games on August 10, 2012 in London. AFP PHOTO / OLIVIER MORINOLIVIER MORIN/AFP/GettyImages


Reconciliation

—Obama's big affirmative action decision. —How to dress like a super-villain. —Four bears break into a cabin, drink 100 beers. —Facts and fictions about D.C.'s gentrification. —Call Me Maybe + ChatRoulette = Comedy win. (Yes, it's safe for work.)


Farmers turn to engineered corn to adapt to drought. But will it be enough?

which seeds are planted without churning up the soil — has become more widespread in recent decades, Wagner says. Modern equipment allows farmers to plant seeds through old crop residue, enabling the soil to hold more moisture. Computer technology can allow planters to analyze their soil and calculate exactly how much fertilizer to use in each area. These techniques add up. One 2009 study estimated that a combination of improved practices and conventional breeding had boosted the drought tolerance of U.S. corn by 1 percent a year in the past few decades. Drought anxiety has also revived interest in organic farming practices, such as covering the soil with compost or cover crops to hold more moisture. A recent Nature paper found that soils managed with organic techniques tend to hold more water and perform better in dry conditions than conventional farming. Amid the current drought, Iowa State’s Kathleen Delate has been studying these farms to see how they fare. “Overall, the organic plots seem to be faring better,” she noted, “but we need to quantify this.” Other experts, such as William Moseley of Macalester College, argue that the U.S. may need to rethink its dependence on corn, a lucrative, much-subsidized crop that is especially susceptible to drought. Planting a wider variety of crops, such as alfalfa or sorghum, could prove wiser in areas like the central plains. “All of these agro-ecosystem approaches that build soil fertility are extremely valuable,” Gurian-Sherman says. “But they don’t get nearly as much money or attention from the big companies.” He noted that the U.S. government spends just 2 percent of its agricultural research budget on sustainable farming. Climate change has given the task a renewed urgency. Recent modeling work by Aiguo Dai of the National Center for Atmospheric Research suggests that droughts in the United States could become far more frequent and persistent in the next 20 to 50 years, thanks to rising temperatures and natural variations in ocean cycles. “These two factors lead to very dire outlook for the U.S., especially the West, in the coming decades,” Dai said. It’s still an open question how far new technology will enable farmers to adapt to that hotter, drier world. “There’s more investment now [in drought-tolerance] than there was 20 years ago,” Vyn says. “But is that enough? I’m hopeful that the science will continue to improve. But I’m also mindful of the ticking clock.”


Heurich House

How many times have you passed this building, wondered what it was and done nothing about it? Brewery owner Christian Heurich liked his beer warm and his buildings fireproof. He was a pragmatic businessman who kept his company afloat through Prohibition by making and selling ice. And he lived in this fine example of Victorian excess, also known as the “Brewmaster’s Castle.” Tour it to learn about turn-of-the-20th-century decor, Heurich’s beer and the quirky, folksy man himself. Heurich’s first brewery was heavily damaged by a fire in 1892. He made sure his next brewery was fireproof, and did the same with this home, completed in 1894. The concrete-and-reinforced-steel Victorian had electricity and central heating well before they were commonplace; none of the home’s 15 fireplaces were ever used. In the basement is Heurich’s rec room/man cave/breakfast nook, where he played skat (German bridge). “He who has never been drunk is not a good man,” reads one of the German mottoes on the walls. Did You Know? The Christian Heurich Brewing Co.’s Senate, Maerzen and other beers were popular nationwide up until the 1950s, when larger breweries proved to be insurmountable foes. Heurich billed its beer as a healthy beverage. One 1897 ad read, “Nursing mothers should drink Heurich’s ‘Maerzen,’ as it will insure pure and heavy milk for the babies.” The company sold Champeer, a “champagnelike” sparkling malt liquor, in the late 1940s — until being sued by a New Jersey brewery making the similar Champale. Christian Heurich lived to age 102. He ascribed his longevity to moderation in all things and to drinking Heurich beer. Heurich House, 1307 New Hampshire Ave. NW; $5; 202-429-1894. (Dupont Circle) Learn More!


The one part of Obama’s stimulus that Romney loves

fuel, laser drilling for geothermal energy, lithium batteries, and other new technologies. It's the precisely kind of federal intervention that research scientists and energy firms have been demanding: a link between basic research and development and demonstration projects that could ultimately find their way to the commercial market. And it's among the reasons why Time reporter (and WaPo alum) Michael Grunwald believes the stimulus "was the biggest and most transformative energy bill in history." One firm that received a $4 million stimulus grant in 2010 has now created a "lithium-ion battery has broken the world's record for energy density at 400 watt-hours per kilogram — more than double today's batteries," USA Today explains. Another ARPA-E grant supports the development of a battery "to run a car for 500 miles on a single charge."* That helps explain why ARPA-E has been one of the few stimulus-backed programs to attract support from conservative think-tanks and congressional Republicans, garnering praise from the likes of the Heritage Foundation and Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.). Romney has jumped on the pro-ARPA-E bandwagon as well. "Mitt Romney believes the [DARPA] model—ensuring longterm, non-political sources of funding for a wide variety of competing, earlystage technologies—holds the most potential for achieving significant advances in the energy sector. Investment should be channeled through programs, such as 'ARPA-E,'" his economic plan declares (PDF). In fact, it's one of the few areas of any kind where Romney stresses the importance of government spending. "Government has a role to play in innovation in the energy industry. History shows that the United States has moved forward in astonishing ways thanks to national investment in basic research and advanced technology." However, not all Republicans are on board with boosting funds for ARPA-E—chief among them being Rep. Paul Ryan. As my colleague Brad Plumer points out, Ryan was among the House Republicans to vote for an bill that would cut $50 million from ARPA-E funding in 2011. The House appropriations committee recently passed a bigger, $75 million cut to ARPA-E that would bring spending down to $200 million. "I do not believe that the government ought to be in the business of picking winners and losers,” Rep. James Sensenbrenner (R-Wis.) explained to ClimateWire last year. That's the same line that the Romney campaign has used to explain the GOP candidate's opposition to government energy programs like the wind-energy tax credit. But with earlier stages of energy


Warming Fix

FILE - In this June 25, 2007 file photo, a gas well recovering methane gas at a landfill in Ferris, Texas. An international team of scientists say they've figured out how to slow global warming in the short run, prevent millions of deaths from dirty air and increase food production. And it will save more money than it will cost. They say the key is to reduce emissions of two other greenhouse gases instead of carbon dioxide. Those pollutants are methane and soot. Those powerful gases are fast acting so reducing them would pay off quickly. Soot also is a big health problem, so cutting it would save lives. (AP Photo/Donna McWilliam, File)


No-Fear Beer

From left: Pearl Necklace Oyster Stout (Flying Dog, Frederick, Md.), Essential Pale Ale (Port City, Alexandria), Prima Pils (Victory, Downingtown, Pa.), The Love (Starr Hill, Crozet, Va.) Don’t tell the frat boys downing Miller High Life or PBR in Adams Morgan, but there’s a flood of better-tasting brews out there, stuff worthy of the serious sipping and sniffing usually associated with wine. And, maybe in a nod, er, quaff to the locavore food movement, many of these beers have been produced by small, indie breweries — several of them in the D.C. area. So the next time you have friends over for suds, maybe you’ll be pouring small-batch oyster stouts or seasonal wheat beers that were practically made in your own backyard. (At a campaign stop this week, President Obama revealed that even the White House produces homebrews.) Craft beer tends to have more complex flavors than such mass-produced varieties as Coors and Bud. That’s because they often feature higher quality and more specialty ingredients than those used by major brewers (who tend to just stick with trad hops, barley and malt). They’re turned out in smaller batches than the big guys, and offer a wider range of tastes. “There’s been a groundswell of interest and enthusiasm for craft beer locally,” says Greg Engert, beer director for the Neighborhood Restaurant Group, which includes 14th Street brewtopia ChurchKey (1137 14th St. NW; 202-567-2576). “Since we opened in 2009, it’s spread out into the mainstream. Our crowd is so diverse.” Local breweries are also powering this hoppy revolution, including Port City Brewing Company in Alexandria and DC Brau in Northeast, both founded in the past two years. Other new Washington-area labels include 3 Stars, Bluejacket and Chocolate City (which are only available at a handful of locations for now). We are awash in new brews. “I think D.C. looked inward and was like, ‘We need this,’ ” says Jeff Hancock, the brewer behind DC Brau. “You could get beer from everywhere else in the U.S., but we’re the nation’s capital, and we didn’t have our own brewery — the last one closed in 1956, which was a generation ago. That prompted my business partner Brandon [Skall] and I to start production.” There’s an art to appreciating craft beer, but the biggest piece of advice? Stop and smell the hops. “Slow down, don’t drink so fast and appreciate what’s in your glass,” says


Can natural gas help tackle global warming? A primer.

that the world would still be on track to increase atmospheric carbon emissions to about 650 parts per million, "a trajectory consistent with a probable temperature rise of more than 3.5°C in the long term, well above the widely accepted 2°C target." In other words, relying solely on natural gas to clean up emissions would put the world on pace for global warming that Tyndall Center director Kevin Anderson says is “likely to be beyond ‘adaptation.' " This basically comes down to what Bill McKibben has called the "new math" of global warming. The best climate science suggests that world can only emit about 500 more gigatons of carbon by mid-century if we want a shot at staying below that 2°C threshold. Even if natural gas displaced coal entirely, we'd likely still reach that point soon (albeit at a slower pace). 7) At the moment, cheap natural gas appears to be hindering the development of even lower-carbon energy sources. "Shale gas is a great advantage to the U.S. in the short term, for the next few decades," MIT study author Henry Jacoby said in January. "But it is so attractive that it threatens other energy sources we ultimately will need." 8) Overall, natural gas can help tackle climate change if it's part of a larger, more comprehensive climate policy. The top two lines predict the trajectory of U.S. power-sector emissions through 2035 if there's no climate policy at all. Whether or not there's lots and lots of natural gas doesn't make much difference. Emissions keep growing. The bottom two lines, meanwhile, assume that the United States puts a hard cap on carbon emissions. Emissions go down whether or not there's abundant natural gas. (Although cheap gas would make the transition much easier.) "The lesson is simple," Levi notes. "It’s the policy, not the gas resource, that matters most." So what more could be done on the policy front? As Jesse Ausebel explains here, there are ways to curb the emissions from natural gas even further. Natural gas plants might one day employ carbon-capture technology (CCS) to store their carbon underground, a technology that's still being developed. And natural gas could, in theory, help support a renewable energy system that eventually zeroes out emissions. Yet it's still not clear that either of these developments will automatically occur, unless there are changes in energy policy that actually push these steps forward. Related:


He’s the King of Quinoa

Protein Bar founder Matt Matros wanted the interior of the first D.C. store, above, to resemble a sleek hotel bar. Want some quinoa with that? The South American seed isn’t the typical offering at quick-service food joints, but it’s all over the menu at Protein Bar, a Chicago chain that opens its first D.C. location (at 398 7th St. NW) Wednesday. Offering quinoa — along with whole-wheat flaxseed wraps, chia salad dressing and other nutrient-rich ingredients — helps the restaurant live up to its motto: “We do healthy … healthier.” And they do quite a bit, including oatmeal bowls, egg scrambles, “bar-ritos,” salads and juices. When founder Matt Matros first opened across the street from the Sears Tower in 2009, the plan was to focus on protein shakes. But when he realized he had no customers at lunchtime, he expanded the food options, which helped him expand the business. Now, at any of the eight locations in Chicago or the outpost in D.C., there’s something for customers with just about any dietary restriction. The menu clearly labels everything that’s gluten-free, as well as which dishes can be made vegan. It’s been a hit among folks who’ve gone “Paleo” and eat only ingredients that would have been available to cavemen. Of course, Protein Bar has also lured people watching their weight, which is something Matros knows all about. “I grew up in LA heavy and heard every fat joke you can imagine,” he says. The low-fat diets that were popular during his youth never worked, so it wasn’t until he graduated from college and decided to try going high-protein, low-carb that he finally managed to slim down. “I’d go to Subway and peel off the bread. Instead of a bagel in the morning, I’d have a protein bar and green tea,” says the 33-year-old, who credits this diet and his exercise regimen with helping him drop 50 pounds in about six months. He maintains his figure these days with Protein Bar meals, which boast their nutritional stats right on the menu. He boasts that the bar-ritos have half the calories of popular items at Chipotle. Vitamins aren’t listed, but those numbers look good, too, especially in the salads made with the “Super 6” mix of kale, spinach, romaine, carrots, purple cabbage and broccoli. “D.C. is an underrated healthy city,” Matros says. “It’s the best for running, and there are so many


He’s the King of Quinoa

and juices. When founder Matt Matros first opened across the street from the Sears Tower in 2009, the plan was to focus on protein shakes. But when he realized he had no customers at lunchtime, he expanded the food options, which helped him expand the business. Now, at any of the eight locations in Chicago or the outpost in D.C., there’s something for customers with just about any dietary restriction. The menu clearly labels everything that’s gluten-free, as well as which dishes can be made vegan. It’s been a hit among folks who’ve gone “Paleo” and eat only ingredients that would have been available to cavemen. Of course, Protein Bar has also lured people watching their weight, which is something Matros knows all about. “I grew up in LA heavy and heard every fat joke you can imagine,” he says. The low-fat diets that were popular during his youth never worked, so it wasn’t until he graduated from college and decided to try going high-protein, low-carb that he finally managed to slim down. “I’d go to Subway and peel off the bread. Instead of a bagel in the morning, I’d have a protein bar and green tea,” says the 33-year-old, who credits this diet and his exercise regimen with helping him drop 50 pounds in about six months. He maintains his figure these days with Protein Bar meals, which boast their nutritional stats right on the menu. He boasts that the bar-ritos have half the calories of popular items at Chipotle. Vitamins aren’t listed, but those numbers look good, too, especially in the salads made with the “Super 6” mix of kale, spinach, romaine, carrots, purple cabbage and broccoli. “D.C. is an underrated healthy city,” Matros says. “It’s the best for running, and there are so many yoga studios.” So he figures there’s an opportunity to tap into the fitness community to find Protein Bar customers. Expect him to show up at D.C. gyms with a blender to give out smoothie samples — and even to sweat. He’s already taken classes at Biker Barre and joined Vida Fitness. Washington’s vast population of young people makes the nation’s capital a no-brainer as the next market for Protein Bar, Matros says. A Ballston location will be opening in about six weeks, and he would like to see 15 to 20 branches in the D.C. area eventually. That’s a whole lot of quinoa.


The evolution of the universe, in 78 seconds

Scientists have developed a new computer simulation capable of modeling the birth and evolution of the universe. Here's a mere 9 billion years of galactic formation, shown here in 78 seconds: Arepo simulation of galaxy formation The software's called Arepo and it was developed by scientists at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and the Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies. Here's (Via io9's Robert Gonzalez.)


Demanding Obama’s beer recipe

President Obama loves to talk about the White House's homemade beer. But does he want you to know what's in it? A Redditor has filed a Freedom of Information Act Request for the recipe. An excerpt: Recipes are commonly shared among the home brewing community as a means of learning advanced or new techniques in the creation of small batch ales. Also, if you could send me a copy autographed by the president, you'd be the coolest FOIA officer in the federal government, and who could resist that title? There's also a petition on WhiteHouse.gov; only 418 signatures so far. (hat tip: Jared Keller)


Do party platforms really matter?

Tampa are going to say, 'I'm not going to go to this cocktail party, I'm going to sit in my hotel room and read the platform'?" Sides also doubts that voters will care much about the platforms or even be aware of what it is in them. "Party platforms and their specific planks are not a major factor in how voters make up their minds. No one learns the details of the platforms," he says. "It's much more likely that voters will hear information about the nominee's positions, or even the running mate's positions." "On the one hand they are the most important document that a political party produces. The platform tells you what the party stands for," Maisel, a political scientist at Colby, wrote in a widely cited 1993 paper. "On the other hand, they are worthless pieces of paper. How many citizens can tell you what is in the parties' platforms?" But others warn against writing off party platforms altogether. "It's an opportunity for the party base to assert its principles, figure out what its principles are, to show its own strength in the party," says Stephen Engel, a political science professor at Bates College. He argues that it serves as both a reflection of where the party base stands and a tool that interest groups try to wield when it comes to governing. Engel points out that, for instance, that between 1976 and 1980, major changes were made to the Republican Party that heralded an ideological shift to the right: The 1980 platform dropped its previous support for the Equal Rights Amendment and moved to the right a few notches on abortion, among other changes. In retrospect, it proved to be one "document of the ideological change of the party," Engel says. And after Reagan's 1980 victory, for instance, interest groups later cited the platform shift in trying to push his administration to move further to the right on abortion, notes David Karol, a political scientist at the University of Maryland. In that regard, platforms can serve as a way to hold politicians accountable. Republicans, in particular, have also become increasingly concerned with ideological purity, using documents like pledges to pressure politicians. "Platforms are related to that," says Julia Azari, a political science professor at Marquette University. While the voting public might not pay much attention to the party platform, interest groups and activists certainly do, Azari


The U.S. drought is mostly a problem for poorer countries

This summer, the United States has slogged through its worst drought in half a century, causing corn and soybean crops to wilt across the Midwest and Great Plains. The effects appear to have been dramatic at first glance: Corn prices have shot up 60 percent since June. Soy prices have risen by more than one-third. (Scott Olson/Getty Images) And yet, as agricultural economist Michael Roberts explains, this isn't likely to pose a crippling problem for most consumers in the United States. The USDA estimates that U.S. food prices will increase just 3 to 4 percent in 2013. Mostly, it's a nightmare for poorer, developing countries. Over at his excellent blog "Greed, Green, and Grains," Roberts explains why the rise in corn prices will have such a small impact on things like the price of beef or chicken at the grocery store: Take meat, for example. There are only 3-5 pounds of corn used to make an additional pound of beef, and between 2 and 3 pounds of corn for a pound of chicken or pork. The calculation isn't particularly straightforward, but these numbers are probably about right "on the margin," as economists like to say. This can vary a bit from operation to operation or how it's measured, but feed use efficiency has risen a lot over the last couple decades with the growth of confined animal feeding operations, or CAFOs. Let's says 5 pounds of corn per pound of meat. There are 56 pounds of corn in a bushel and since June prices have increased from about $5 to about $8 per bushel. This means the amount corn in your quarter-pound burger have increased from about 11 cents to about 18 cents. If there is market power by processing companies or retailers, retail prices would go up by less than this amount (this is basic microeconomics, but I'll save the details for another time). So, you'll have to squint to see the effect of this year's drought on prices at grocery stores and restaurants. (Note: If you'd prefer to see this all in graph form, click here. Corn supplies have often jumped up and down dramatically in the past decade, while meat prices have barely budged in response.) Now, Roberts' post isn't necessarily a defense of industrial-scale farming, which can have plenty of other adverse side effects — from intensive fossil-fuel use to dead zones in the Gulf of


Reconciliation

-- Joementum! Noam Scheiber on the vice president's preparations for a 2016 run. -- Can you trademark marijuana? -- Lion supposedly on the loose in the UK is likely a "large domestic cat." -- A Goldman Sachs executive buys a $27 million apartment with a "six-room master suite." -- How the Economist became the world's most dominant newsweekly. -- Buzz Aldrin got back at Neil Armstrong for lobbying to be first on the moon by not taking any good pictures of him there.


Reconciliation

- "'Not me,' said an exasperated-looking senior adviser, when asked who was responsible for Mr. Eastwood’s speech.” - Ten million gallons of maple syrup (valued at $30 million!) were stolen from Quebec's strategic maple syrup reserves. - Runner's World is investigating whether Rep. Paul Ryan actually ran a sub-3:00 marathon, as he recently claimed. - Michael Woodford is skeptical of quantitative easing, says Fed should go for NGDP targeting. - The horrors of being Lance Armstrong's assistant. - "A schoolboy has stumbled across a rare piece of whale vomit which could be worth a staggering £40,000." - A look at why fighting wildfires is so dangerous--and how thin Forest Service budgets/policies make it worse. - Modern dance interpretation of "Arrested Development."


White House releases its beer recipe

President Obama has been playing up his enjoyment of a cold one on the trail lately, and discussion of a brewing enterprise on the grounds of the White House led to a petition for him to release the recipe. The subject also came up in his AMA, or "Ask Me Anything," on Reddit this week. The petition didn't get the 25,000 signatures that were said to be needed -- it's at 12,240 -- but the White House has released the recipes. They come with a blog post from White House chef Sam Kass and a video with a behind-the-scenes look at brewing at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. There are two recipes -- one for the White House Honey Ale and one for White House Honey Porter, both brewed with honey from Michelle Obama's kitchen garden.


How Democrats have shifted on climate, energy since 2008

defeat the epochal, man-made threat to the planet: climate change. Without dramatic changes, rising sea levels will flood coastal regions around the world. Warmer temperatures and declining rainfall will reduce crop yields, increasing conflict, famine, disease, and poverty. By 2050, famine could displace more than 250 million people worldwide. That means increased instability in some of the most volatile parts of the world. In the 2012 platform, the language is vaguer and a bit more perfunctory: We know that global climate change is one of the biggest threats of this generation – an economic, environmental, and national security catastrophe in the making. We affirm the science of climate change, commit to significantly reducing the pollution that causes climate change, and know we have to meet this challenge by driving smart policies that lead to greater growth in clean energy generation and result in a range of economic and social benefits. Why the muted tone? The scientific evidence that the climate is changing significantly has only solidified in the past four years. But, on the other hand, the economy is hurting, and environmental issues have dropped on the list of voter concerns. 2) Less-ambitious plans to reduce carbon emissions. As such, this year's Democratic platform is left touting (and proposing) smaller-scale efforts—mostly things that can be done without Congress's approval. There's one big boast here: The Obama administration has, indeed, put in place new fuel-economy standards that will require the auto fleet to average 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. That's a significant step. But the other accomplishments listed in the platform are more modest: The EPA's "first-ever carbon pollution limits for new fossil-fuel-fired power plants," for instance, will mainly just affect future coal plants—and few utilities were building new coal plants anyway. It's true that U.S. energy-related emissions have dropped to their lowest level since 1992, but that's owed a lot to the recession, the warm winter, and to the fact that cheap natural gas is displacing dirtier coal, rather than to any particular Obama administration efforts. Tellingly, Democrats are offering up few explicit proposals this time around for tackling global warming—not even a pledge to expand EPA regulations on carbon dioxide further. 3) Still sounding upbeat on clean energy. Democrats have made some headway here. Renewable sources like wind and solar have made significant advances during the Obama years—the United States now gets 5.75 percent of its energy from


Your ‘Paul Ryan marathon’ time

What's your marathon PR? Paul Ryan's debunked boast about running a marathon in under three hours is giving new meaning to the old runner's abbreviation for personal record. Now there's a page where you can adjust your own time in reflection of Ryan's. Runner's World interview with Hugh Hewitt Marathon runners now can find out what their personal record would be if they had been talking in Paul Ryan's terms, knocking off more than a quarter of their total time. You can toggle to shorter distances if you haven't run a full marathon. So, say, your last marathon was a 4:02: According to this tool your new "PR time" is a 2:55. It could catch on.


Paul Ryan explains marathon mistake

In an interview with Toledo News Now Tuesday, vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan explained that a back injury contributed to his inflated marathon-running claims. "I hurt my back when I was in my mid-20s, so I had to stop running. So obviously, my perception of races and times was off," Ryan said when asked why he told a radio show that he had run a marathon in under three hours. His actual time was closer to four. "I thought that was an ordinary time until my brother showed me a three-hour marathon is, you know, crazy fast. It's just the fact that I did it 22 years ago." ToledoNewsNow.com: News, Weather The creator of PaulRyanTimeCalculator, a Web site that lets you cut down your own marathon time to match Ryan's adjustment, told the Post earlier Tuesday that he wasn't buying Ryan's story. "It's funny that Ryan is popular for being an intellectual, straight-shooting, clear-thinking numbers guy who supposedly remembers each line of the federal budget, but he can't remember his marathon time within an hour," graduate student Erik Westlund said. "Everyone who takes running seriously knows that is nonsense. I've run a few marathons and a bunch of other races and I know all my times pretty much down to the second going back many years. His excuse just didn't seem plausible to me."


Market Watch

At Union Market, you’ll find both fresh and premade, ready-to-bake pastries from D.C. Empanadas. Settling into its first fixed location, D.C. Empanadas will sell many of the deep-fried, stuffed pastries regulars know and love from the company’s sky-blue food truck — along with plenty of new menu additions. Anna Bran-Leis, who owns D.C. Empanadas with her husband, Shawn Leis, will manage the Union Market location while Leis will keep the truck on the road. At the market, D.C. Empanadas’ menu will feature the classics (such as the truck’s most popular “traditional” empanada, containing seasoned shredded beef, tomatoes, raisins, onions, green olives and cilantro). Expect a few new empanadas with higher-end ingredients and flavor combos as well (such as a beef Wellington-inspired empanada and another containing duck meat). Over nearly two years in business, “we’ve had a lot of requests for baked empanadas,” Bran-Leis says, so the shop will also sell pre-made, pre-packaged turnovers that customers can pop into the oven at home. After the market has been open for a few weeks, the shop might also branch into brunch on the weekends, she says. “I picture one of the things that we’ll do is an arepa [a flat, round patty of cornmeal or flour] filled with cheese and a fried egg on top and chorizo hash,” Bran-Leis says. K.A. Righteous Cheese Mix educational cheese tastings, wine and beer flights and gourmet food shopping, and you’ve got Righteous Cheese, fromager Carolyn Stromberg’s new business. Stromberg has worked with cheese in and around D.C. for seven years, honing her expertise at Cheesetique and Cowgirl Creamery, among other dairy destinations. Most recently, she’s offered cheese-tasting instruction to sold-out crowds through her business, the Cheese Course, and run the cheese program at Seasonal Pantry. At Righteous Cheese (whose name pokes fun at the self-righteous nature of foodie culture), Stromberg will continue to help “demystify cheese.” “I want guests to be comfortable and be able to explore new things and try new things and not be intimidated by pronouncing the name of the cheese wrong,” Stromberg says. Visitors can expect to find between 40 and 50 cheeses for sale, many small-batch, seasonal and local. For those who can spend a little more time considering Camemberts, Stromberg will offer three daily cheese flights (paired with beer, wine or non-alcoholic drinks) at her 10-seat bar. K.A. TaKorean TaKorean’s Union Market stall will stick to the same menu


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Could wind power ever meet the world’s energy needs?

in a 2007 modeling study of the United States, the wind is always blowing somewhere in the country, which means that if enough wind farms are linked together, they can provide lots of steady baseload power. But building that infrastructure can be difficult — Germany is currently struggling to upgrade its grid to accommodate a surge of new wind and solar farms. Rather than get bogged down in these logistical details, however, the new Nature Climate Change paper set its sights far higher. For one, it doesn't just look at wind potential near the Earth's surface, as past studies have done. The study also asks how much wind energy could be extracted from higher altitudes. Various companies are now working on designs for wind turbines that can float high in the air, on kites or balloons. Since the wind is steadier and stronger high up in the atmosphere, that's a tantalizing resource — if the technology could work. True, humans would eventually run into a physical limit on how much wind energy could be harnessed. Wind turbines work by creating resistance or drag, slowing the wind's momentum. Put up enough turbines, and the wind will slow down too much. What's more, the change in global circulation could, in theory, muck with the climate. (Previous modeling studies, including one by David Keith in 2004, had raised the possibility that large-scale wind harvesting might alter global rainfall patterns.) Yet the Nature Climate Change study suggests that neither of these things will be a problem for a long, long time. Humans could sustainably extract up to 2,200 terawatts of power from surface and atmospheric winds before bumping into physical limits. That's 100 times as much power as the world uses today. What's more, if the world ever harnessed that much wind, the temperature of the Earth would shift by only about 0.1°C and precipitation would shift by less than 1 percent. "It's not a big deal, basically," says Marvel. Marvel says the next step for this sort of research will be to restrict the analysis to wind-turbine locations that are technically feasible. For now, however, it's safe to say that there's enough wind potential to meet the world's demand many times over, at least in the abstract. "[I]t seems that the future of wind energy," the study concludes, "will be determined by economic, political and technical constraints, rather than global geophysical limits." Related:


After speech criticism, Romney talks Afghanistan

Under criticism for failing to mention the war in Afghanistan or recognize America’s troops in his convention speech last month, Mitt Romney repeatedly honored veterans, troops and civilian responders as he addressed a National Guard gathering in Reno, Nev. on Tuesday. Romney made no new policy pronouncements; he set a goal for the Afghanistan war, as he has before, of completing a successful transition to Afghan security forces by the end of 2014, but did not expound on the decade-long war in Afghanistan. Instead, Romney told personal stories of his encounters with troops and Guardsmen, both during a trip to Afghanistan and Iraq as governor of Massachusetts and on the campaign trail running for president. “It has been my privilege to meet with troops and veterans from just about every state,” Romney said. “They come from our farms, our great cities, our small towns and quiet neighborhoods. Many have known violence so that their neighbors could know peace. They have done more than protect America; their courage and service defines America.” These are the kinds of recollections Romney left out of his acceptance speech Aug. 30 at the Republican national Convention in Tampa, where he became the first Republican in generations not to mention war in accepting his party’s nomination. More: Mitt Romney talks about Afghanistan, Sept. 11 attacks at Reno event


Obama, Romney campaigns struggle to earn public trust

Voters in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll are divided on whether President Obama and Mitt Romney's campaigns are telling the truth or purposely misleading the public. By 49 to 42 percent, slightly more voters believe the Obama campaign is "saying things it believes to be true" rather than "intentionally misleading people." For Romney's team the numbers are roughly flipped: 43 percent say they are telling the truth, 48 percent not. The data are sobering after two weeks of party conventions featuring soaring rhetoric as well as Pinocchio-worthy one-liners. There's little divide on the value of telling the truth: By 65 to 23 percent, more voters say it's more important to trust what a candidate says than for it to be agreeable. (Note: The poll predated a campaign spat over an attack on the U.S. embassy in Libya). But voter loyalty is clear in assessments of the campaigns. More than eight in 10 Obama voters say his campaign is telling the truth (81 percent), while three quarters of Romney backers see shenanigans. Likewise, Romney supporters say by more than 4 to 1 that his campaign is telling the truth, while Obama backers say Romney's team is intentionally misleading the public by a similar margin. Welfare and race The Romney campaign's claim that Obama eliminated the work requirement for welfare - repeated in ads even after it was panned by three independent fact checkers - drew criticisms of injecting racial issues into the campaign, playing into decades-old stereotypes of "welfare queens" to gin up support among white voters. Racial or not, few voters knock Romney for running afoul on racial issues. Just 15 percent of registered voters say his campaign is using the issue of race inappropriately, while slightly more, 20 percent, say Obama is wrongly using the issue. Almost all of those who accuse each side of using race inappropriately are supporters of the opposing candidate. Whites and non-whites also divide on the issue. Some 30 percent of non-white voters say Romney is inappropriately using race in the campaign, compared with 10 percent of whites. Just 7 percent of non-whites see Obama using race inappropriately, compared with 24 percent of white voters. But it's unclear whether these attitudes are simply a reflection of partisan predispositions. Among likely voters, whites back Romney by a 55 to 42 percent margin, while non-whites favor Obama by 78 to 22 percent. See results and


How a fluorescent jellyfish – and federal dollars – helped fight AIDS

The road to Martin Chalfie's Nobel Prize-winning breakthrough began with a curious question: Why do green jellyfish glow in the dark? (Source: Enrique Calvo -- Reuters) By itself, the federally-funded research project may have seemed frivolous, particularly when taxpayer dollars were at stake. But the answer to the question ultimately led Chalfie and his collaborators to discover a groundbreaking new substance that allows scientists to observe how HIV, cancer, and other diseases spread in the body. "Research is an investment in the long run. You can't predict what you're going to get," said Chalfie, whose research on "green fluorescent protein" was funded by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute of Health. At a Capitol Hill ceremony on Thursday, Chalfie, Osamu Shimomura and Roger Y. Tsien became the first recipients of the "Golden Goose Awards," which Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.) created in order to show how seemingly obscure research funded by the government can result in revolutionary, unexpected scientific breakthroughs. Another award recipient was Nobel Prize winner Charles Townes, whose discovery of laser technology in the 1950s began with an odd-sounding quest to amplify microwave radiation. A third group of scientists was honored for discovering a new material for bone grafts by studying the composition of coral. (Here's a video of the winning scientists explaining their research findings and the role of government funding.) It's been a long-standing Washington pasttime to single out similarly odd-sounding projects as a sign of government waste — the "sex life of the screwworm," for instance. But that can lead to big misconceptions about how scientific breakthroughs work, the awardees explained. In Washington, "they like to think they can foresse what's needed. You've got to be open-minded," said Townes. Funding for basic scientific research has retained bipartisan support, and it's so far been shielded from major budget cuts. But Cooper warns that there are still threats on the horizon. "Gridlock means sequestration, which means devastating cuts to science," he said. In such "budgetary emergencies," science needs to be prioritized, Cooper continued. "I'm calling it 'women and children first.'" Cooper was joined by a handful of other House members — including one Republican, Rep. Charlie Dent — at the awards ceremony. But they all had to excuse themselves early. "The anti-science forces have just called for five votes," Cooper explained.


Reconciliation

- Ezra is hosting the Ed Show at 8 pm tonight. Tune in! - A helpful overview of what's happening in Libya right now. - A bar in Minnesota believes it is the first to distribute pregnancy tests, which it sees as a way to discourage moms-to-be from imbibing. - Grover Norquist takes role (as a wino) in the next "Atlas Shrugged" movie. - How neurologists and brain specialists watch football. - Aging bicyclists switch to tricycles. - Now is a pretty great time to buy a house.


Humana wants to change what you buy at the grocery store

a major insurer and major retailer speaks to insurers’ increased push to become involved in areas traditionally outside their purview. Wellness programs have become a mainstay of large employers’ insurance plans, with the number offering financial incentives for workers who participate in health management plans nearly doubling between 2009 and 2012. Humana only launched HumanaVitality, the wellness unit leading this initiative, last July. The new program rewards participants’ healthy behaviors with prizes that range from movie tickets to hotel stays. The partnership between Humana and Wal-Mart is, in many ways, a new twist on existing wellness programs. It offers a financial incentive to purchase healthier groceries. “In a recent survey we did, we saw that 84 percent of our members said a savings program would motivate them to start purchasing healthier foods,” said Humanavitality CEO Joe Woods. “We plan to aggressively communicate about this...to ensure that as many people as possible can benefit from this dynamic program.” The 5 percent discount will go toward any foods with a new “Great for You” icon, ranging from low-fat milk to produce to low-sodium soups. The products must meet two parts of Wal-Mart’s nurtrition criteria, which include limits on fat content, sugar and sodium levels. HumanaVitality members will accrue the discounts on a membership card. The discounts can be used to purchase anything sold in a Wal-Mart store, from healthy foods to clothing to unhealthy offerings. Research on financial incentives and food purchasing behavior indicates that pricing could have an impact on purchase decisions. One recent study on milk prices found that a small difference between the cost of low-fat and full-fat milk had the potential to significantly change what consumers purchased. The USDA published separate research in 2007, that looked at how low-income families reacted to a 10 percent drop in the price of low-fat milk compared to a full-fat alternative. They found that price change correlated with a 14 percent increase in the consumption of low-fat milk. Both Wal-Mart and Humana describe this as an experiment; it's the first time a major retailer and a major health company, have tried to use financial incentives to change how people eat. They think it will work; but don’t know quite yet. “Our partnership is one of a kind with Humana,” said Andrea Thomas, Wal-Mart’s senior vice president of sustainability. “We’ll have a great amount of learning that will come from this as well.”


Reconciliation

—Why elite students cheat. —Why elite chess players cheat. —Inside the dark world of online sugar daddies. —Rep. Jesse Jackson is selling his D.C. home to pay for medical bills. —No, we're not going to invade Canada. future of labor


Reconciliation

- Where leopards actually got their spots. - This is your brain on Jane Austen. - States are very weary of the sequester (in one infographic). - Buzzfeed goes longform. - A zoomable version of yesterday's (epic) XKCD comic. - What your emoticon says about you.


Wonkbook: Governments are pushing hard on financial regulation

Welcome to Wonkbook, Ezra Klein and Evan Soltas's morning policy news primer. To subscribe by e-mail, click here. Send comments, criticism, or ideas to Wonkbook at Gmail dot com. To read more by Ezra and his team, go to Wonkblog. Wonkbook dashboard RCP Obama vs. Romney: RCP Obama approval: Intrade percent chance of Obama win: Top story: Governments are pushing hard on financial regulation Treasury Sec. Geithner arm-twists the SEC on money market fund regulations. @sabrush Libor, the rigged benchmark interest rate, is due for major changes to be announced today. WEIL: All we should ask from banks is the transparency we get from restaurants. NORRIS: Fixing Libor? Ha! Top op-eds BROOKS: The psychological barriers to success. KRUGMAN: The madness of European austerity. @esoltas BORDO: The conventional wisdom about recessions and recoveries is wrong. @JimPethokoukis GERSON: The federal role in education remains dysfunctional. ALTER: How small money can matter again in politics. Top long reads Jon Hilsenrath explains how Chairman Ben Bernanke swayed the Federal Open Market Committee to accept the need for further monetary easing: @AndyHarless Friday music interlude: Got tips, additions, or comments? Still to come: Economy Two revisions of economic data changed our best read on the economy. Here's the first: hiring revised up. @justinwolfers Here's the second: GDP growth revised down. @ryanavent And more data out today paints a decidedly gray picture. The stock market's mood is in flux. Why is confidence rising amid a shaky recovery? Rah-rah-rah interlude: Health Care The Dept. of Veterans Affairs is seriously and increasingly delinquent on its obligations to provide benefits. Romney's health care plans are more expensive to the average family than Obama's. Domestic Policy Lots of processing delay for applications for deferred immigration action. The Supreme Court may axe affirmative action in public universities. Tighter privacy protections are coming for kids online. Comics interlude: Energy New power plant design gets green light: nuclear power with lasers. Wind industry to collapse in U.S. without tax subsidy, producer says. U.S. Geological Survey report links fracking fluids to groundwater contamination. Congress votes against E.U. plan to hike environmental-pollution fees on air travel. Wonkbook is produced with help from Michelle Williams.


The economics of video games

and invested in lucrative land deals and casinos. When the deals soured all at once, panic ensued. Ordinary depositors found they couldn’t withdraw cash from ATMs, and one bank, Gingko Financial, lost its customers $750,000 in real-life money. The game designers had to step in and ban certain types of lending. Real-world applications? As fascinating as these virtual economies can be to observe, however, experts are still divided on whether they have much to teach us about the real world. “To this day, we haven’t seen anything in these virtual environments that violates fundamental economic theories,” says Ted Castronova of Indiana University Bloomington, one of the first scholars to study virtual worlds. After all, the fact that prices rapidly adjust to supply and demand in Eve Online isn’t shocking. Economists have studied artificial currencies in other contexts, such as cigarette trading in prisons. Some economists, however, are starting to observe intriguing phenomena. A 2010 study by Cornell’s Bloomfield looked at an unregulated stock exchange in Second Life, called SLCapex, which raised $145,000 from investors. He found that the market tended to favor large investors over small investors. And, he realized, existing economic theories could not explain why issuers continued to raise so much money in such a setting. Another scholar who studies virtual worlds, Magnus Thor Torfason of Harvard Business School, says it’s surprising that there’s not more cheating in virtual worlds — as when the head of EBank simply absconded with the bank’s funds. That, in itself, may reveal something interesting about how norms and trust shape markets. “If you break these contracts, there’s not much that can be done to you,” Torfason says. “So one thing I’m looking at is, why isn’t [cheating] more prevalent?” Others say that the fullness of the data available in online worlds allows for the study of concepts that can’t be studied nearly as accurately in real life. “In real life, if you want to know what’s happening with car sales, you might call up a handful of car dealerships and ask what their sales are like this month,” says Dmitri Williams, a researcher at the University of Southern California. “In a virtual world, you just know everything. There’s no sampling, there’s no error. It’s perfect information.” Few economists, however, are as ambitious as Varoufakis. He says that, to date, most economic studies of virtual worlds have merely mapped existing concepts onto the


Lance Armstrong makes his own way — and keeps winning

For many events, having Lance Armstrong participate outweighs being officially sanctioned. (Thao Nguyen/AP) Lance Armstrong may be banned for life from officially competing in events sanctioned by Olympic governing bodies, but that hasn’t kept him from participating, especially in triathlons. And, when he does, he usually wins. He’s still Lance Armstrong, even at the age of 41 and events are discovering that having Armstrong as a participant outweighs official certification by sanctioning bodies, like USA Triathlon. On Sunday, Armstrong won the 34th SuperFrog Triathlon on Coronado Island in Southern Calif., completing the 1.2-mile swim, 56-mile bike “ride” and 13.1-mile run in 3 hours, 49 minutes, 45 seconds. Officials for the race, which raises money for the Navy SEAL Foundation, abandoned its quest for USAT certification when Armstrong applied. Registration spiked to a record 825 entrants, at a fee as high as $275 each. “The last 200 are the Lance effect,” Superfrog director Mitch Hall told the Wall Street Journal, Armstrong also agreed to host a postrace fundraiser. The SuperFrog win is really more of an indicator that Armstrong is just getting on with his life, as he promised when he was banned and stripped of his Tour de France titles, than anything. Today, for instance, is Livestrong Global Day for his cancer foundation. On Sunday, he’ll be in Baltimore to participate in the Ulman Cancer Fund for Young Adults’ Half Full Triathlon, doing the half-distance cancer survivor wave. As with the Superfrog, race officials have chosen to pass up official sanctioning and have been been rewarded with an increase in entries. Armstrong remains enormously popular, with a recent Washington Post user poll showing that 57 percent of voters do not believe he is guilty of doping. Follow us: More Armstrong’s participation trumps being officially sanctioned UCI to receive report soon Armstrong says he will fight no longer World cycling body asks for explanation of USADA’s case Text: Armstrong’s statement Photos: Gallery of Armstrong’s career


Slain SUNY student Alexandra Kogut’s last tweet: ‘Should’ve known.’

beating his girlfriend to death in her bedroom. And we can’t help but think of Yeardley Love, the slain UVA student whose lacrosse-playing boyfriend, George Huguely V, was sentenced to 23 years just over a month ago. One night in the spring of 2010, Huguely kicked in the 22-year-old Love’s locked door and beat her head against the wall, later insisting to police that he’d left her bleeding but alive, “flopping like a fish.” At his sentencing hearing, we heard all about what any number of people not only “should’ve known,” but did: One young woman testified that he had put his hands around her throat in a bar, furious that she’d dared tell her father, his former lacrosse coach, that he had a drinking problem. That assault ended only when a bouncer pulled him off and threw him out, just as a previous attack on Love stopped only when a friend of hers pulled him off of her at a party. Another woman who’d dated Huguely off and on told the court he’d punched a tennis player she was walking with, and a lacrosse teammate who’d made him jealous recalled Huguely punching him as he slept. The judge in the case called the bar incident “a foreshadowing of what was coming,” but it was more like a flashing red light and siren. The statistics on campus violence are nothing to whoop over, sports fans: According to the Denver-based National Coalition Against Violent Athletes, a three-year study showed that though male student athletes were only 3.3 percent of the population, they overperformed as predators, accounting for one in three sexual assaults on campus. Of course, Whittemore is somebody’s son, too, an accounting major attending Utica College close to home and struggling academically, if his Twitter feed is any indication. It records both considerable frustration — “If this doesn’t work I swear to god…” — and tenderness — “Miss you too sweetheart” — along with some messages to Kogut, a swimmer and freshman communications major, that in any other context might be seen as teasing: “sorry but someone has to,” and “I expect chocolate chip pancakes upon my arrival.” I never felt this way about athletes before reporting on the handling of sexual assault cases at my own alma mater — and it certainly was a lot more fun back when I could still cheer, cheer for old Notre Dame with


Why the new U.S. battery industry is still struggling

to be as well. And if plug-ins are going to be popular in America, batteries have to get much cheaper... Fast forward three years. Those battery factories do exist. But many of them are now running idle. The problem? Electric cars have been much slower to take off in the United States than anticipated, which means that the supply of batteries in the United States has vastly outstripped demand. Kevin Bullis of MIT's Technology Review passes along this chart from the consulting firm Advanced Automotive Batteries: What's striking is that the consulting firm actually expects U.S. plug-in vehicle sales to increase more than seven-fold next year. And even then, there are expected to be too many U.S. battery factories and not enough electric cars to supply. (Hybrid vehicles like Toyota's Prius are selling at a faster clip, but they tend to use nickel-metal hydride batteries rather than the newer lithium-ion batteries produced in factories funded by the stimulus.) That means many of the battery factories are hurting. In Holland, Mich., LG Chem's battery factory—which received a $150 million grant from the Department of Energy—has recently furloughed its 200 employees. The company had expected to produce batteries for the Chevy Volt, but early Volt sales have been relatively sluggish, and most of the car's batteries are still produced in LG Chem's Korean factories. Similarly, A123, the innovative battery firm founded by MIT scientists that received a $249 million federal grant to build two factories in Michigan, has been struggling to find customers. Last month, the company announced that it would take a major cash infusion by a Chinese auto-parts-maker, Wanxiang Group, just to stay alive. A123 also has its eye on China's growing electric-vehicle market, with five of its factories in Asia. This is all just another way of saying that there's still a chicken-and-egg problem, as Grunwald pointed out in his book. As long as electric vehicle sales remain in a torpor, the U.S. battery industry will struggle along with it. What's more, as Bullis reports, many newer electric-car models, such as Renault's Zoe, are still getting their batteries from Asia, where the battery industry has had many years' head start. So can the U.S. battery industry survive? Obviously it's still early days for the electric-car industry. If plug-in vehicle sales pick up, some of these battery firms could rebound (LG Chem's Michigan factory, for instance, has until 2015 to


What the International Space Station sees at night

Here's a neat new video from the International Space Station flying over the Earth at night, with NASA scientist Justin Wilkinson explaining what we're seeing. Oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico and the aurora borealis are two highlights: Via


NHL cancels regular season games through Oct. 24 (updated)

With no progress in labor negotiations between the NHL and the NHLPA, the league canceled the first two weeks of the regular season on Thursday, the 19th day of the lockout. The 2012-13 regular season was slated to open on Oct. 11. Eighty-two games were canceled, including seven Capitals contests. The NHL’s announcement, however, left open the possibility of salvaging a full 82-game season. If the two sides can come to terms on a new collective bargaining agreement quickly, it’s possible the contests could be rescheduled. Reached via e-mail, NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly said that it is “really tough to say” when there would need to be progress in the negotiations in order to play a full season. “When we get to that point, we will have to reconfigure with the input and agreement of the Players’ Association,” Daly wrote in an e-mail. “There will be a lot of relevant considerations, I’m sure, including what can be done consistent with the health and safety of the Players.” NHLPA Executive Director Donald Fehr sent out the following statement after the league’s announcement: “The decision to cancel the first two weeks of the NHL season is the unilateral choice of the NHL owners. If the owners truly cared about the game and the fans, they would lift the lockout and allow the season to begin on time while negotiations continue. A lockout should be the last resort in bargaining, not the strategy of first resort. For nearly 20 years, the owners have elected to lock-out the players in an effort to secure massive concessions. Nevertheless, the players remain committed to playing hockey while the parties work to reach a deal that is fair for both sides. We hope we will soon have a willing negotiating partner.” Now that regular season games are being canned, will your take on the labor strife change? Are you planning to boycott the NHL, or perhaps scheduling a trip to Hershey? Are you more frustrated now than you were during the 2004-05 lockout? Here’s the full list of canceled Caps games: Oct. 12 vs. New Jersey Oct. 13 at Ottawa Oct. 15 vs. Florida Oct. 17 vs. Toronto Oct. 19 vs. Winnipeg Oct. 20 at Montreal Oct. 23 at Winnipeg As the stalemate between the two sides drags on with no end in sight, more players are finding work elsewhere. More than 110 NHL players have


Taste of D.C. will close downtown streets all weekend

Taste of D.C. The following streets close on Friday at 7 p.m. and remain closed until Tuesday at 3 a.m.: - Pennsylvania Avenue NW from 9th to 14th streets NW - 10th Street NW from E Street to Constitution Avenue NW - 11th Street NW from E Street to Constitution Avenue NW - 12th Street NW from E Street to Constitution Avenue NW - 13th Street NW from E Street to Constitution Avenue NW