How growing global trade is carrying pests all over the world

A researcher’s brown marmorated stink bug trap at Cherry Hill Orchards in Lancaster, Pa. (Matt Rourke/AP) Swimming through the seas, taking over forests, creeping into your garden — invasive species are everywhere, and they’re becoming one of the world’s major environmental concerns. And research suggests that they may be costing big money in terms of agricultural damage as well — with damage totals set to grow because species invasions are closely linked to the beating heart of the global economy, namely international trade. “As trade volumes continue to increase and more trade connections are made between countries, the pressures from invasive species will only intensify,” Dean Paini, a senior research scientist at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in Australia, and a group of colleagues write in a new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. A big part of the worry surrounding invasives — which are nonnative species that establish themselves in a new location, often at the expense of the organisms already living there — has to do with their effect on the native flora and fauna, especially if the locals are threatened already. But while looking out for the local wildlife is a high priority for many scientists and conservationists, there’s an economic angle to the problem of invasive species: They can pose a terrible threat to agriculture by damaging crops. The The research finds that sub-Saharan Africa is the global region with the potential to be hit hardest, agriculturally speaking, by invasive species. On the other hand, the research suggests that China and the United States, both of which have huge trade volumes with other countries (and large numbers of pest species within their borders to begin with), are the biggest potential sources of invasives to the rest of the world. When considering the potential effect of any pest species in a country, there are “two halves of a question” to consider, said Paini and a group of colleagues from institutes in Australia, New Zealand and the United States, investigated those questions for 1,300 invasive insect and fungal pest species in 124 countries around the world. They decided to use global trade connections, and the value of a country’s annual importation, as a proxy for the likelihood that pest species might be carried across borders. “Trade has been shown repeatedly to be correlated to the number of invasive species a country has,”


play when it comes to whether — and to what extent — a country will be affected by invasive species. Those include the types of crops grown, what pests are already present, which places the country trades with, and how often and what kinds of pests those other places house. “I spent a lot of time trying to find a pattern,” Paini said. “Was it big countries, was it little countries, was it the number of invasive species that are already present in the country, was it whether the country was landlocked or not? The point is, nothing really popped out.” On the flip side, the research indicated that China and the United States ranked first and second as potential source countries — also not surprising because they are “characterized by large and diverse trade volumes and have been confirmed as network hubs in the international agrofood trade network,” the researchers wrote. Of course, there are a variety of other factors affecting the extent to which an invasive species could harm a country’s economy once it’s established, Paini said. “It’s things like how long is it established in the country before it actually grows to a large enough population that it does have an impact? How slowly or how quickly does it spread around the country?” he said, adding that management strategies in individual nations will play a large role as well. The research does not suggest that its results will definitely happen — rather, it contends that some nations have the potential to be hit harder than others. And Paini noted that the study is also not intended to make recommendations to any particular nation about which species they should most be on the lookout for or which nations they should avoid trading with. The biggest takeaway, Paini said, is that some parts of the world may be particularly vulnerable — suggesting that international bodies may want to pay special attention to the risk of invasives in those places. “It’s everybody’s responsibility to try to reduce or prevent invasive species from spreading, and just to keep in mind that those countries that are most vulnerable to those invasive species are those developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa,” Paini said. “There is a lot of work being done in that area already for developing countries, particularly in Africa — but I would just say that that work needs to continue.”


What is Brexit? The complete guide to Britain’s E.U. drama for confused non-Europeans.

of killing her, Tommy Mair, is said to have shouted "Britain first" when attacking her and has been linked to far-right groups. When asked to give his name in court after the attacks, Mair said, "My name is death to traitors, freedom for Britain." While Mair is miles from being representative of the vast majority of pro-Brexit campaigners, Cox's killing sparked widespread discussion of the tone of the debate ahead of the referendum. Both "leave" and "remain" campaigns were suspended for two days as a mark of respect for Cox. What would happen if Britain left the E.U.? It's hard to say. No country as large as Britain has voted to leave the union before (Greenland, a self-governing territory of Denmark, voted to leave the EEC, the E.U.'s predecessor, in 1982 but in very different circumstances). That, in itself, may be the biggest problem. If Britain left the E.U., it would be a sign to other anti-E.U. groups across Europe that countries can actually exit the union if they want to. That could have a big impact on the continent, where anti-E.U. parties such as France's National Front have won significant electoral support in recent years. By proving that membership in the union is reversible, a Brexit could severely damage the very foundations of the E.U., a project that is a hugely important attempt to create unity on the continent after the ravages of World War II. As The Washington Post's Michael Birnbaum reports, one recent Ipsos Mori poll found that 55 percent of French voters and 58 percent of Italian voters wanted plebiscites of their own. For Britain, the economic effects of leaving are a subject of fierce debate. Some Euro-skeptics argue that the union will want to maintain good economic relations with Britain, effectively allowing the country to have its cake and eat it. But it's also possible that E.U. officials would impose tough trade restrictions on Britain as a warning to others that might want to leave. Additionally, London's status as Europe's financial capital would look shaky if Britain left (HSBC is warning that it may move a thousand finance jobs from London to France if Britain quits the union), and a Brexit may well re-spark the campaign for an independent Scotland, because of the pro-E.U. sentiment held by a large number of Scots. What would happen to Cameron? If Britain votes to leave the E.U., Cameron


Trader Joe’s is forced to fix refrigerators, cut greenhouse gas emissions

A Trader Joe’s store in Sunnyvale, Calif. (Getty Images) Trader Joe’s will spend millions of dollars over the next several years to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from its refrigeration equipment as part of a settlement with the Environmental Protection Agency and the Justice Department. Federal officials had alleged that the grocery chain had violated the Clean Air Act by failing to repair leaks of “R-22,” an ozone-depleting substance and potent greenhouse gas that is commonly used as a coolant in refrigerators. Investigators also claimed that the California-based company had failed to keep adequate service records for its refrigeration equipment and failed to provide information about its compliance record. As part of the settlement announced Tuesday, Trader Joe’s agreed to spend an estimated $2 million over the next three years to cut down on coolant leaks from refrigerators and other equipment and to put in place a program to better detect and repair leaks. The company also pledged to cut its “average leak rate” to less than half of the grocery industry average, and it vowed to use non-ozone depleting refrigerants at all of its new or significantly renovated stores. At least 15 of those stores must use advanced refrigerants, such as carbon dioxide, that have far less potential to contribute to global warming. The company also will pay a $500,000 civil penalty. “Taking action to combat climate change is a priority for the Obama administration, and this settlement will result in substantial cuts to one of the most potent greenhouse gases,” Cynthia Giles, assistant administrator for the EPA’s Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance, said in a statement. “These company-wide upgrades Trader Joe’s will make are not only good for the environment, they set a high bar for the grocery industry for detecting and fixing cooling leaks.” A company spokeswoman, Alison Mochizuki, said in an emailed statement Tuesday that “Trader Joe’s looks forward to working with the EPA in its mission to reduce air pollution and protect the ozone layer, and, with this agreement, has committed to reducing its emissions to a rate that matches the best of the industry.” Government officials estimated that the settlement, if carried out, could result in reductions of greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to the amount produced by 6,500 passenger vehicles over the course of a year. Under current EPA regulations, owners and operators of commercial refrigeration equipment that contain more than 50 pounds of


Google aims to stop terrifying you with its responses when you search medical symptoms

This includes basic information about common health problems related to your symptoms and whether you can treat the issue at home by yourself or you should be calling for help. It works only in English right now and through the Google search app on iPhone and Android. Take a look at the (very mundane) common causes listed by symptom search vs. some of the (pretty terrifying) responses you get by typing in how you’re feeling the old-fashioned way, directly into the Google search box: “Stomach hurts” Regular search: “[R]eally, any organ in your abdomen (there are many) could be to blame.” “Diverticulitis is an inflammation of ‘diverticula’ or pockets that form in the lining of the intestine, usually the colon. … ‘These look like punched-out holes in the lining of the colon that tend to get inflamed or obstructed with stool or other foreign material.’ ” Symptom search: “Constipation, gas, overeating, stress, or muscle strain.” “Blurry vision one eye” Regular search: “Losing vision in one eye may be an early symptom of a stroke. ‘Vision loss, especially in one eye, could be a sign that the carotid artery, which is a major supplier of blood to the eyes, is blocked.’ ” “The sudden onset of flashing lights, a noticeable increase in the amount of floaters, a shadow in your peripheral vision, or a gray curtain moving across your field of vision could be signs of a detachment of the retina, the nerve layer in the back of the eye that sends images to the brain.” Symptom search: “Eye rubbing, dry eyes, crying, aging, or bad eyeglass prescription.” “Itchy skin” Regular search: “The possible causes for itchiness range from internal illnesses, such as kidney or liver disease, to skin rashes.” “Strep throat is another common trigger of psoriasis.” Symptom search: “Hair regrowth, sunburns, insect bites, dry skin or healing wounds.” Read more: Zika precautions: What you need to know as you plan your summer travel Is 10,000-steps goal more myth than science? Study seeks fitness truths through our phones and more Controversial study aims to ‘reanimate’ the brain dead IN DEPTH: Sean Parker, Silicon Valley’s bad boy genius, wants to kick the *!$% out of cancer Like our Health Wellness page on Facebook for more science news about the ins and outs of the human body and mind, essays and advice. You can sign up here for our newsletter. Save Save


Here’s how the Euro soccer tournament will affect the Brexit vote.

others. Sports, it turns out, can reinforce national identities and increase tension between countries, regardless of the actual score. As George Orwell put it, “If you wanted to add to the vast fund of ill-will existing in the world … you could hardly do it better than by a series of football matches.” Psychologists have studied how sports intensify rivalries, going back to the 1954 Robbers Cave experiment that pitted two teams of boys against each other in a series of challenges and measured the escalating conflict. My own research looks at how countries become more aggressive militarily when they participate in international soccer tournaments. The polls tell the Brexit vote story Here’s how Euro 2016 seems to be shaping U.K. support for the E.U. Before the opening kickoffs, nationalistic riots erupted on the streets of Nice, with English “football hooligans” at the center of the action. The clashes caused dozens of injuries and flooded the news with scenes of English fans fighting French police officers. If that was not enough to harden national identities, the June 11 opening game between England and Russia attracted 14.1 million British viewers, making it the country’s most-watched television event this year. As the graph below shows, U.K. pollsters noticed a drastic change in voter attitudes toward the E.U. during this period. There was a large swing in favor of “Leave,” which maintained about an 8-point lead over much of last week. The momentum shifted back to “Remain” following the murder of pro-E.U. Member of Parliament Jo Cox and increasing concerns over the economic costs of a Brexit. However, “Leave” made up ground early this week. Going into Thursday’s vote, the Financial Times “Poll-of-Polls” gives “Leave” a narrow edge of 45 to 44. The “Remain” vote appears to be receiving less support since the start of Euro 2016 matches. Data: Financial Times Brexit poll tracker, https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/ Figure: Andrew Bertoli. How will the games this week affect the vote? Whether Gruffydd-Jones or I am right, planning the referendum during the Euro 2016 seems like a big mistake. The timing made it possible for a sporting event to influence a crucial decision, either by affecting voter mood or increasing nationalism. In the future, politicians should be more alert to how emotions can influence voter choices, and plan accordingly. Andrew Bertoli is a Ph.D. candidate in political science at the University of California at Berkeley. Save Save


What Brexit means for the future of Europe

76 million people are about to join the E.U. even though they're nowhere near doing so. What we're saying, then, is that Britain isn't sure it wants to be America. A modicum of diversity is one thing, but a multiethnic democracy, well, that's another. Not that this should be too surprising. Sometimes America isn't sure it wants to be America either. Whether it was the Chinese Exclusion Act, immigration quotas for eastern Europeans, or Donald Trump today, there have always been children and grandchildren of immigrants who want to keep new immigrants out. But even with those setbacks, America is still a place where someone who was born in, say, Syria can still be just as American as someone who can trace their ancestry all the way back to the Mayflower as long as they work hard, play by the rules, and believe in our democratic creed — or at least it aspires to be. The question is whether Britain feels the same: whether being British is something a Polish person can learn to be, just like they can learn to be American. It's been ugly, but a referendum is the only way to settle this. Something as fundamental as who you are, isn't something you can smuggle in through the E.U.'s rulebook. It needs democratic legitimacy. So does the rest of Europe. For 60 years now, it's hoped that economic integration would lead to political integration. That sharing steel and coal, like France and Germany did in 1951, would force them to share markets. And that sharing markets, like they then did in 1957, would force them to share rules. And that sharing rules would force them to share rule-makers. And that sharing rule-makers would force them to share institutions — until, voilà, they had surreptitiously created a United States of Europe. It was the If-You-Give-A-Mouse-A-Coal-Community principle of state-building. But there was a flaw: People didn't want it, don't want it and might never want it. Eurocrats, though, will dream a dream that never dies — unless, of course, Britain kills it by deciding that even a watered-down version of all this is too much. Who knows who would follow. The irony, then, is that the only way there might be a United States of Europe is if Britain decides to become more like the United States of America. That might not be self-evident, but it is a truth.


Europe to Britain: Please don’t do a Brexit

bloc in Germany than in other neighboring countries. Germans fear that a British E.U. exit — widely known as Brexit — could become a precedent for other countries with similar movements and could have a negative effect on trade relations. Last week, a group of young entrepreneurs flew from Berlin to London to hand out free bratwurst on the streets of the British capital, apparently unaware of British campaigning rules that prohibit giving out food or beverages. "Bratwurst against Brexit," attracted some curious looks — but will probably not have a decisive effect on the outcome of the referendum Thursday. German pro-E.U. campaigners hand out free traditional bratwurst sausages to Londoners on June 15. ( Rick Noack/The Washington Post) A similar initiative of French campaigners, who wanted to give out free croissants on Wednesday, was adapted after police informed them about the strict British rules. Instead, the French campaigners handed out postcards at King's Cross Station signed, "With love, from Paris." Media outlets have also weighted in. When Germany's influential Der Spiegel magazine printed a partially English edition with the cover headline: "Please don't go! Why Germany needs the British." A Dutch newspaper echoed that sentiment in its own cover story: "Don't leave me this way," the paper urged the country. »Please don’t go!« (Der Spiegel). »Don’t leave me this way« (Algemeen Dagblad). #songsagainstbrexit https://t.co/YNQ01zdBkz When President Obama voiced his support for Britain's E.U. membership, reactions were mixed, and some polls indicated that Obama's comments might have boosted the pro-Brexit camp. Since then, Europeans have been particularly cautious to not hurt the emotions of British voters in their pleas for the country to vote "remain." France's Liberation newspaper tried a different strategy. It ran a satirical, but provocative, piece in which the leftist paper urged Britain to leave the European Union as a sacrifice to "save the European dream." If it remained a member, commentator Jean Quatremer argued, its demands for concessions could slow down the continent's integration process. But will the British understand Liberation's continental European humor? The Palace of Culture and Science is illuminated in Union Jack colours by Warsaw's capital authorities in support of Britain staying in the EU, in Warsaw, Poland June 22, 2016. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel Also read: After poisonous campaign, British vote on E.U. ties shapes up as cliffhanger 9 out of 10 experts agree: Britain doesn’t trust the experts on Brexit The rise and


Rory McIlroy pulls out of Rio Olympics over Zika concerns

from having their sperm frozen ahead of the games to Spain’s decision to ship 3,000 bottles of insect repellant to Brazil. Ireland’s Olympic governing body said that it was “extremely disappointed not to be taking Rory with us to Rio” but added that it “respected his decision.” “The [Olympic Committee of Ireland] and our medical team have taken our lead from the International Olympic Committee on the Zika situation, as we do in all matters,” it said in a statement. “We are now following the IOC’s recommendations, as well as the recommendations of the Rio 2016 organisers, the World Health Organisation and national health authorities, to ensure that Team Ireland’s athletes are kept fully updated with the latest and best advice and that they are equipped to take all necessary precautions.” The epicenter of Zika, which has been linked to a severe birth defect marked by unusually small heads and often underdeveloped brains, is Brazil. The virus is transmitted mainly by mosquitoes but also can be passed along by sexual contact and blood-to-blood contact. There is no vaccine or treatment for Zika, which also has been associated with paralysis and blindness. The Vila Autodromo favela community in Rio de Janeiro is being torn down to make way for the Olympic Park, but is leaving behind dirty pools of standing water - a perfect breeding ground for mosquitos. Earlier this month, cyclist Tejay van Garderen became the first American athlete to say he would skip Rio over Zika because his wife is pregnant. Other athletes are considering whether to have sperm frozen ahead of the Games. Pau Gasol is considering taking that step if he decides to compete for Spain and the wife of Britain’s Greg Rutherford, the reigning Olympic long jump champion, said her husband will freeze sperm before heading to Brazil. Susie Verrill, his wife, wrote in an article for Standard Issue that the couple plans to have children and she doesn’t “want to put myself in a situation which could have been prevented.” Hope Solo, the goalie for the U.S. women’s national soccer team, said she would “begrudgingly” go to Rio. “I’m not sure I’m even going to be leaving the hotel room, outside of practice,” Solo, who will turn 35 in July and hopes to start a family soon with husband Jerramy Stevens, said in May. The U.S. women are coming off last year’s World Cup title


Four keys for predicting whether Britain will leave the European Union

A U.K. Independence Party supporter awaits the arrival of leader Nigel Farage in Ramsgate, England, on June 13. Farage is pushing for Britain to leave the European Union. (Chris J. Ratcliffe/AFP via Getty Images) British citizens will vote Thursday on whether to leave or remain in the European Union. Prediction markets 1. In the past, polling for “separation” votes has been wrong, while prediction markets have been right These results follow the pattern we’ve seen in predictions about previous separatist votes in established democracies: Polls tend to believe that the separation will happen, but markets predict it will not — and, so far, the markets have been correct. For instance, in 2014, Scotland voted on whether to separate from the United Kingdom, while in 1995, Quebec voted on whether to separate from Canada. In both cases, polls predicted more votes for separation than were actually cast. Here’s why: Within a given geographic area, separation usually has considerable social desirability bias. People want to sound like part of the crowd; it is socially desirable to claim to love one’s country and people. On the other side, the reasons people have for staying are generally more mundane and less sexy than the reasons for leaving. So if someone calls with a deep Scottish or Quebecois accent and asks whether a respondent wants to leave the union, he or she will feel a lot of internal pressure to say yes. But in the privacy of the voting booth, many of the same people choose the less sexy but more stable option of staying. 2. Undecideds break for the status quo Second, even looking at the polls, roughly 9 percent of people said they were still undecided with only two days before the vote. In such cases, undecided voters tend to break toward the status quo. A voter who is truly not certain will find it easier to vote for continuity than major change. PredictWise: Brexit Probabilities and Pollster: Polling Trend<br />Data: PredictWise and Pollster; Figure: David Rothschild 3. Turnout will make a difference. Third, the base voters for staying are traditionally “looser” voters, or citizens who do not always find the time to go to the polls. That means that if there’s high turnout, voters will most probably be opting to stay; if not many people go to the polls, a “leave” vote is more likely. Taking a closer look at the polling,


How Brexit has broken me

Two activists with the E.U. flag and Union Jack painted on their faces kiss in front of Brandenburg Gate in Berlin on June 19 to protest the British exit from the European Union. (Hannibal Hanschke/Reuters) As a general rule, if the hard-working staff here at Spoiler Alerts has to choose a position on an issue, and on one side there’s the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the International Monetary Fund, the Economist, the Financial Times, and on the other side is Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and John Bolton, well, the staff here will back the former without much debate. And so it is with the Brexit referendum, in which the British will vote Thursday on whether the United Kingdom should leave or remain in the European Union. Beyond the fact that Brexit would damage U.S. interests, there’s the small matter of the uncertainty that Brexit would inject into the British, European and global economy during a time of fragility. My only valid reason for a pro-Brexit vote is that maybe, maybe a victory for the Leave campaign would finally shake the European Union out of its torpor long enough to realize just how badly it has messed up its post-2008 governance. But to be honest, that’s really a problem of the euro more than anything else. If Britain exits rather than uses its voice, the European Union is likely to face further disintegration. The problem is, none of this analysis matters. I wrote last week about the paradox of an improving U.S. economy not being matched with an increase of trust in U.S. institutions. As noted then, the exact same phenomenon is playing out in the United Kingdom. Annie Lowrey wrote an essay titled “How Donald Trump Explains Brexit” making this exact point: Both Donald Trump and Brexit have bubbled up during periods of slow-but-steady growth, high inequality, and wage stagnation — economic conditions that rankle voters but do not obsess them. In the United States, for the first time in a very long time, economic strife is not what is driving the polls. When you ask Americans what the most important problem facing the country is, economic concerns are still the most cited. Even so, a majority of respondents name something else — crime, drugs, guns, how the government is run — as the most important issue. Similarly, the economy is no longer Britons’ main concern. Right now,


The ‘Amityville Horror’ house is for sale: Five bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms and one bloody history

are resold, some are leveled, and some enter into American folklore. They combine two of America’s great obsessions: Real estate and true crime. Housing experts call them “stigmatized properties.” But Washington, D.C., real estate agent Nancy Taylor Bubes said serious buyers usually aren’t concerned if such a property has been improved before going on the market. “When you deliver a product that doesn’t feel like a murder happened inside, buyers look at it with fresh eyes,” she told The Post. “You’ve washed away the sadness.” Bubes sold the Georgetown home where a 91-year-old socialite, Viola Drath, was strangled in her upstairs bathroom by her husband, Albrecht Muth. Drath’s daughters upgraded the kitchen, repainted the house and brought in modern furniture before the house was listed. Bubes told clients that a murder had occurred in the house — but that turned out not to be an issue. The Post reported: Bubes said she had several offers after the first weekend; the low price launched a bidding war, and the house sold for more than $1.2 million — about what it would have sold for without the stigma. Many people, of course, are creeped out at the idea of living in a house with a violent past. But some decide that, as long as the property itself poses no actual threat, getting a good deal trumps superstition. “The buyers who were really interested weren’t fazed,” Bubes said. Michigan lawyer Steve Lehto visited many similar homes for his book “American Murder Houses: A Coast-to-Coast Tour of the Most Notorious Houses of Homicide.” “I found, generally speaking, there’s a period immediately following the murder where the house almost becomes a tourist attraction,” he told The Post. It’s traumatic and frightening — neighbors don’t answer the doorbell; strangers drive down their streets taking pictures. After a few years, especially when there’s no one left in the neighborhood who knew the victims, “it becomes less personal and more historical.” A database called DiedInHouse.com allows users to search addresses for murders, suicides and meth labs. For $11.99, a report shows that there have been seven deaths at “The Amityville Horror” house. A man first died in the home in 1939 after an illness, according to the database. Thirty-five years later, six members of the DeFeo family were killed in the Long Island home. But O’Neill, the listing agent, said none of the other homeowners have said they


Would Brexit help LGBT people in Britain? Be skeptical.

mid-1800s, helped create a kind of informal cross-national community. Similarly, in the early 1900s, activist and sexologist Magnus Hirschfeld undertook research across different European countries and examined how these relations were cross-national. In the late 1920s, the British novelist Christopher Isherwood left for Berlin. His writings about the sexual openness of Weimar Germany were enormously influential back home. Although the rise of National Socialism extinguished most organized gay groups on the continent, transnational ties multiplied again in the post-war period, largely centering on the Netherlands. LGBT activists saw the E.U. as a pressure point As continental European countries confronted their wartime past by deepening cooperation, LGBT activists recognized that European institutions could provide a fruitful venue for their advocacy. These new institutions provided them with a pressure point that they could use to influence reluctant states to address gay rights. Just like today, countries varied greatly in their attitudes about LGBT recognition. In many countries, domestic movements for LGBT rights were powerless, but a few countries started paving a way forward in some domains of lesbian and gay rights. The differences between countries frustrated activists, but it also led them to envision a role for the E.U. on LGBT rights even before the European Union itself had a social mandate. British activists fully agreed with this orientation toward Europe. In 1978, they helped found the International Gay Association (the precursor to today International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans, and Intersex Association, or ILGA) alongside their European counterparts in Coventry in Britain. The ILGA founders recognized that they could use the new European project to exert influence on reluctant European states that did not want to address gay rights. The E.U. promoted gay rights in Britain Europe delivered on the hopes of LGBT activists. Its institutions have actively championed the norm of protecting sexual minorities both rhetorically through various resolutions and reports and directly through court rulings, anti-discrimination directives, and E.U. accession requirements. This had crucial consequences for Britain. For example, take the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), which is not an E.U. institution but which plays a key role in Europe (and has also become controversial in Britain because of its rulings on the rights of prisoners and others). In the 1981 case of Dudgeon v. the United Kingdom, the ECHR ruled that same-sex relations should be decriminalized in Northern Ireland. The ECHR’s sister institution, the Council of Europe, became


Quiz: What do you actually know about the E.U.?

A giant map of European countries at the E.U. Commission in Brussels, Belgium. (Julien Warnand/EPA) Later this month, Britain will vote on leaving the European Union. If British voters decide they really want to leave, it will be a big event. No country has ever decided to leave the modern E.U. The consequences for Britain, let alone the E.U., are unclear. Many non-Europeans may struggle to see what the fuss is about. In fact, many might scratch their heads and wonder what exactly the E.U. does and how it relates to European country-level governments. This isn't just a problem for those outside of the E.U.'s boundaries, however. In "Brexit: The Movie," people on the street in both London and Brussels were shown photographs of extremely important leaders and asked who they are. It appears everyone is stumped. The film may have a clear political angle, but it does make a key point: To many European citizens, the institution that controls many aspects of their lives is a mysterious and opaque mess. So what do you actually know about one of the most important political institutions in the world? Take our test and find out. More on WorldViews Obama’s support for the E.U. is driving some Brits mad What’s a ‘Brexit’? A guide to Britain’s E.U. drama for confused non-Europeans. Donald Trump supports the Brexit, because of course he does Europe to Britain: Please don’t do a Brexit


Plane takes off from the South Pole in rare, risky effort to rescue sick workers

The 10-meter South Pole Telescope and the BICEPTelescope at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station in 2008. (Keith Vanderlinde/National Science Foundation via Reuters) A medical rescue plane took off from Amundsen-Scott research station at the South Pole Wednesday morning, en route to complete only the third evacuation during the dark Antarctic winter in the station's 60-year history. Flights to the pole are risky and rare during the six-month polar night, temperatures can sink below minus 100 degrees Fahrenheit and the only light comes from the moon and stars. Kelly Falkner, the director of polar programs for the National Science Foundation (which runs the South Pole station), said that two workers were airlifted out of the station Wednesday. One was a seasonal employee for contractor Lockheed Martin who requires medical treatment not available at the station; the NSF has not identified the second patient. Falkner couldn't provide further details about the medical motivation behind the rescues for privacy reasons. The rescue effort was launched early last week after consultation with outside medical experts and agency officials. "We try to balance our decisions with all of the risks involved," Falkner said, noting that the safety of the flight crew and the needs of all 48 people overwintering at the station were also taken into account. "It's a very serious decision that we take to move in this direction." Dozens of people spend the winter at the Amundsen-Scott station each year, many of them employed by the NSF or lead contractor Lockheed Martin. They help maintain the station, oversee long-term monitoring of the atmosphere and climate change, conduct research on the early history of the universe via two radio telescopes, and observe the behavior of subatomic particles at the station's IceCube Neutrino Observatory. But evacuation efforts such as this are exceedingly uncommon. The brutal cold and near-total darkness that blankets Antarctica during the austral winter make flights in and out of the station all but impossible. In 1999, a doctor who discovered a cancerous lump in her right breast treated herself — even performing her own biopsy and administering her own chemotherapy — for almost six months until the weather thawed enough for a rescue plane to arrive. A decade later, when a manager for the station suffered a stroke in August, the question of whether an airlift was possible led to a tense standoff. She was ultimately flown out in mid October. "We


The world’s longest-serving president just appointed his son as VP

almost 37 years. According Power has been in the family for Equatorial Guinea's entire existence as an independent country. The current president toppled his uncle in a violent coup in 1979, before sentencing him to death by firing squad. Since then, he has consolidated his grip over the country's industries and is accused of diverting tax money into his personal accounts. The apple hasn't fallen far from the tree. In 2014, U.S. authorities forced Teodorín to relinquish his $30 million home in Malibu, Calif.; a Gulfstream jet; a Ferrari; and dozens of pieces of Michael Jackson memorabilia worth more than $1 million, all bought with money funneled through offshore bank accounts. Court documents reviewed by the Justice Department showed that Teodorín received an official salary of less than $100,000 but amassed more than $300 million in assets through corruption and money laundering. “Through relentless embezzlement and extortion, Vice President Nguema Obiang shamelessly looted his government and shook down businesses in his country to support his lavish lifestyle, while many of his fellow citizens lived in extreme poverty,” Assistant Attorney General Leslie R. Caldwell said at the time. The problem of dynastic authoritarianism is shared by Equatorial Guinea's slightly larger neighbor Gabon, which also relies heavily on the oil and gas industry. Omar Bongo ruled Gabon from independence until 2009 — 42 years — and his son Ali is now president. Bongo enjoys close enough ties to the United States that he and his wife sat next to President Obama and the first lady at a state dinner in 2014. Gabon even held a seat on the U.N. Security Council in 2010 and 2011. Across Africa, leaders have historically resisted term limits and are often accused of doing so to continue lining their pockets. To try to counter that trend, a wealthy Sudanese businessman named Mohamed "Mo" Ibrahim announced a $5 million annual cash prize in 2007 to be given to African leaders who step down in the interest of promoting democracy. In nine years, it has been awarded four times, not counting a prize ceremonially given to Nelson Mandela. The prize went unawarded this year. No African leader met Ibrahim's "very high bar" for "exceptional leadership." Read more: The fascinating tribal tradition that gave Obama his last name Albinos are being killed in record numbers for their body parts Kenyan court rules anal exams to test sexual orientation are legal


What do Google search results tell us about the Brexit vote?

(Georges Gobet/AFP/Getty Images) A couple of months ago, we reported on the success of European researcher Nikos Askitas in performing real-time tracking of public opinion on referendums using a very simple comparison of hourly Google searches. Askitas did a good job on the Irish referendum on same-sex marriage and on the Greek referendum on economic policy. Thursday is the British referendum on the exit from the European Union, and it’s super-close in the polls. Askitas has been tracking the Brexit referendum by comparing searches with the words “remain” and “leave.” Here’s his most recent summary, with a day to go before the vote: He writes that “the remain side is still ahead but that the Brexiteers are catching up in a hurry, after their side lost a lot of traction in the aftermath of the tragic shooting death of Jo Cox.” One challenge with this approach is figuring out which Google searches for these relatively common words are relevant. Askitas writes: “With some luck and adjustment we may be able to … clean the searches of irrelevant ones,” suggesting that these search data need some cleaning. Another question is the extent to which searchers are representative of voters. We have no real way of knowing. That said, this is an interesting way of getting a real-time estimate, and these estimates did well in the Irish and Greek referendums. Moreover, it’s not as if conventional polls are perfect. I do think this work should be part of the conversation. And it’s good to put this up for public scrutiny, to motivate improvements on these methods for the future.


Homestead, a sprawling restaurant and bar, is now open in Petworth

Homestead opens Thursday in Petworth. (Becky Krystal/The Washington Post) Name: The food Chef Marty Anklam, who grew up in Arlington with co-owner Nic Makris, describes Homestead's fare as "polished comfort food" -- approachable and homey but not overly refined. "We want to take a very relaxed approach to good, wholesome food," Makris said. The menu includes a variety of snacks and shareable plates (arancini, catfish nuggets, cheese boards) and entrees (a burger, grilled salmon, sirloin). For $70, you can also build a family-style meal that includes a salad, large entree (short ribs, whole roasted chicken, meatloaf) and three sides. There are some common elements across all parts of the menu, including the lamb bacon from Indiana's Smoking Goose, featured in the L.B.L.T. sliders, a mussels dish and wedge salad; and meats from Maryland's Roseda Farm, such as a dry-aged sirloin steak and short ribs. The drinks Bar and beverage manager Rodolfo Antorcha is curating Homestead's 20-tap system with wines, beer (all from the District, Maryland and Virginia) and ciders. Cocktails will be a mix of specialty drinks and classics which will put to use the 20 different bitters Anklam is making. Example: The Night Star with cognac, Aperol, absinthe and chocolate-mole bitters. The classic cocktail list will let diners choose their spirit and bitters to create tipples such as an Old-Fashioned or Sidecar. But you'll also be able to get your cans of PBR or Miller High Life. "We're not too good for anyone," Antorcha said. The space Huge. Genuinely cavernous. Covering 4,000 square feet over three levels, Homestead will seat 175 diners, plus another 70 among the two outdoor spaces. As to the interior design elements, "We just kind of collected things," said Makris, who served as the general contractor on the project. (He's also a co-owner of the Blaguard in Adams Morgan.) A lot of the reclaimed wood came from the original 1922 townhouse on the site, including doors and roof timber incorporated into the two bars. Some pieces originated at the now-closed Bistro Francais, and a half-moon window on the upper level was salvaged from a local church. Eventually, Anklam will have a rooftop garden. Porterhouse steak with basil mashed potatoes. (Becky Krystal/The Washington Post) Catfish Lafayette with a ham and shrimp Cajun cream sauce. (Becky Krystal/The Washington Post) Homestead's roasted chicken is brined in maple syrup and mustard. (Becky Krystal/The Washington Post) Outdoor seating on the


Federalist Society podcast on Brexit, devolution, and secession

In anticipation of tomorrow’s Brexit vote, the Federalist Society has produced up a podcast on Brexit, devolution, and secession. The podcast covers both the pros and cons of secession and devolution generally, and those of Brexit specifically. The participants are Philip Booth of the Institute of Economic Affairs (Britain’s leading pro-free market think tank), and myself. Booth is a well-known expert on federalism and decentralization in Britain and the European Union. He is the author of the excellent recent short book, Federal Britain: The Case for Decentralisation. In this May post, I explained why I am tentatively opposed to Brexit, though I think both sides in the debate have some strong arguments. I have also analyzed the role that political ignorance might play in the Brexit vote. Sadly, widespread public ignorance is an important part of the political landscape in Britain, just as it is in the United States, and many other countries around the world. That said, I believe the opposing sides in the Brexit debate have both made many good points, even if there is also no shortage of bad ones.


Why one college professor is bubbling up big vats of homemade lava

oversee experiments using gallons of artificially created lava flow – artificial systems much larger than anything ever studied, actual volcanoes notwithstanding. While working at the Universität Würzburg in Germany, Sonder and his colleagues conducted similar experiments using just "a coffee cup" of lava at a time. "They created this explosive system in the laboratory for the first time." Sonder said. "And what we know today from those experiments is quite a bit, the sequencing of this explosion is in principle understood." But scientists still aren't sure how to start an explosion: In the lab, mixing water and lava isn't enough. You need to trigger the system with an air gun to make it go boom. Otherwise, the water just slowly evaporates. That makes sense, given how many watery volcanoes fail to produce these violent reactions. But figuring out what makes the exceptions unique is a bit tricky. "Scientists don't want to go firing air guns at volcanoes," Sonder joked. So he's hoping that scaling up the experiments will help his team puzzle out the natural triggers behind explosive interactions like the one seen in 2010. If the trigger was less mysterious, geologists might be able to warn residents near volcanoes primed to have these kinds of explosions – or reassure those living near ice-capped volcanoes that were (relatively) safe. The research might also have applications in certain industrial settings – anywhere you might have molten metal coming into close contact with water, where these kinds of explosions are also a concern. The lava-brewing team suits up in special protective gear. (University at Buffalo) For now, Sonder and his team are working on perfecting their lava production process. It's a real doozy: The put 10 gallons of basaltic rock, taken from the chilled remains of natural lava flows, into a high-powered induction furnace. After heating it for several hours – stirring occasionally with a steel rod – they pour the 2,500 degrees Fahrenheit brew out into metal boxes designed to mimic the underground channels through which magma flows. Then they use a remote-controlled system of tiny tubes to inject the melt with water while they scurry to safety. This injection system keeps the liquid from instantly, harmlessly sizzling off of the molten surface, instead allowing it to interact with the rock – for better or for worse. The melt takes about four hours to make, and is only usable for around


Mortgage rates hold steady ahead of Brexit vote

(A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.) As Britain voted Thursday to decide whether the United Kingdom will remain in the European Union — Brexit, as it is widely known — polls showed the vote could go either way. That uncertainty has unsettled investors. No matter the outcome, Brexit is likely to affect financial markets and, in turn, mortgage rates. Bankrate.com, which puts out a weekly mortgage rate trend index, found that more than a third of the experts it surveyed believe rates will rise in the coming week. In the meantime, rates seemed to take a pause, according to the latest data released Thursday by Freddie Mac. The 30-year fixed-rate average inched up to 3.56 percent with an average 0.6 point. (Points are fees paid to a lender equal to 1 percent of the loan amount.) It was 3.54 percent a week ago and 4.02 percent a year ago. The 15-year fixed-rate average rose to 2.83 percent with an average 0.5 point. It was 2.81 percent a week ago and 3.21 percent a year ago. The five-year adjustable rate average was unchanged at 2.74 percent with an average 0.5 point. It was 2.98 percent a year ago. “Mortgage rates have been slow to adjust to the 10-year Treasury yield, which has increased 12 basis points since last week,” Sean Becketti, Freddie Mac chief economist, said in a statement. “The low rates continue to be good news for the housing market, as existing home sales rose 1.8 percent to a 5.53 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in the month of May — the highest level since February 2007.” Mortgage applications, fueled by low rates, picked up this week, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The market composite index — a measure of total loan application volume — increased 2.9 percent from the previous week. The refinance index jumped 7 percent, while the purchase index fell 2 percent. The refinance share of mortgage activity accounted for 57.7 percent of all applications. “Driven by ‘Brexit’-related uncertainty and volatility, rates dropped 3 basis points last week to their lowest level since May 2013,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA chief economist. “The jumbo rate fell to its lowest level since MBA started tracking jumbo rates in 2011. The Brexit vote promises to bring continued volatility to markets this week, although the likelihood of an exit and its ultimate impact remain unclear.”


This chart perfectly explains what’s at stake in the quest to stop climate change

ocean’s “thermohaline” or overturning circulation (THC), changing the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in favor of more dominant El Nino conditions, and also tipping the gigantic ice mass of East Antarctica (EAIS). (For a full description of these tipping points or “elements,” see here.) “There are some that could possibly already be switched within the Paris range, and then there’s another cluster of tipping elements, where we have the chance to avoid tipping those for even higher temperatures,” Winkelmann said. She notes that many of the tipping elements involve a feedback process: Greenland’s ice sheet, for instance, will lose elevation as it melts, subjecting it to warmer temperatures in the lower atmosphere, which will cause more melt. And so on. Granted, in any given case, some scientists might fear or suspect that some of these tipping points are closer to us than the diagram above suggests. The Amazon, the boreal or northern forest, the Atlantic ocean’s circulation, northern permafrost and East Antarctica are already showing signs of changes. But the researchers think these systems might nonetheless be more resilient. They go on to argue a more difficult point — that we just might see an “exponential” growth of wind and solar that is sufficient to, in turn, trigger an “implosion” of the fossil fuel industry and thus help keep within the Paris targets. Something at least this dynamic would be needed to get the world to stop emitting fast enough to stay within the temperature “guardrail” above, without relying on pie-in-the-sky technological fixes like so-called negative carbon emissions. The truth is that renewables are growing very rapidly right now, but from a low level of penetration, and the precise technological evolution of our energy system remains unclear. Still, nobody can claim that scientists haven’t made clear what’s at stake. “One could basically say that what we’re doing today with greenhouse gas emissions — which is just basically in a moment when you look at the geophysical timescales — that has consequences for decades, centuries, millennia,” Winkelmann said. Read more at Energy Environment: As Greenland melts, one of its most famous glaciers is creating terrifying tsunamis Virgin Atlantic just used behavioral science to ‘nudge’ its pilots into using less fuel. It worked Obama’s advisers just dismantled a key myth about the future of clean energy For more, you can sign up for our weekly newsletter here, and follow us on Twitter here.


13 Brexit facts that will make Americans feel less embarrassed about their own election

to air the Oliver clip. Sky is owned by Rupert Murdoch, the Australian media baron who owns a number of British media outlets and is known for his own strong pro-Brexit views. 10. Someone actually thought this pro-Brexit video was a good idea. Britain's Coming Home (Brexit Song) And it's been viewed more than 600,000 times on YouTube. 11. No one really knows what will happen if Britain votes to leave the E.U. This is a big one. When Americans vote in the 2016 elections, they know that they are voting for the next president. The potential outcome of the Brexit referendum is a lot murkier. If the "remain" campaign is defeated and Britain votes to leave the E.U., exactly what happens next is unclear. No country has ever left the E.U. It's not totally clear how the process would work or even how long it would take — E.U. regulations suggest two years, but some say it could be more like a decade. It's hard to imagine what Britain would look like outside the E.U. and how it would negotiate its new relationship with Europe and the rest of the world. There are a number of models — Britain might try to be like Norway or Iceland and remain in the European Economic Area, or even look to Canada, which recently negotiated a free-trade deal with the E.U. — but Britain may not be in a position to mimic any of them. Some European leaders have warned that Britain could be punished for its decision to leave. This ultimately means that no one really knows what a Brexit would mean. It could be better than many experts predict. It could be worse. As one popular online meme has put it, it's a bit like choosing the unknown contents of a box over a known quantity. The #Brexit mystery box. https://t.co/VnQIxnzAf2 12. People proposed banning old people from voting. Polls suggest that the over-65s are the most pro-Brexit age group, while those under 25 are the least. Given that it could take 10 years for Britain to leave the E.U., this has led to some morbid logic: for example, that Britain's elderly shouldn't be allowed to vote. Thankfully, the idea didn't really catch on. Instead, a more reasonable campaign was launched that asked young people to "grab your granny" and persuade her to vote "remain." 13. The vote isn't actually


Water main break in Alexandria causes road closures, traffic delays

An officer’s view of a water main break on Van Dorn Street and Edsall Road. (Alexandria Police Department) Updated at 1:02 p.m. Authorities said a 60-year-old water main break in Alexandria caused residents in four apartment complexes to have little or no water pressure and shut down some roads as crews worked to fix it. The break is expected to be fixed later this afternoon. Officials said those in four complexes, including Stanton Place, Landmark Terrace, Alexandria Station and Cascade Apartments, were affected. Some of those residents had either “very low, or no water pressure” since Wednesday evening, according to Samantha Villegas, an external affairs consultant for Virginia American Water. She said it was not immediately known what caused the pipe to break. A 60-year-old pipe broke in Alexandria, causing road closures and loss of services for residents in four apartment complexes. (Courtesy of Virginia American Water) “Not sure if age alone was the culprit or the heavy rains yesterday added to it,” Villegas said. Original post at 5:35 a.m. A water main break in Alexandria is likely to cause traffic delays in Thursday morning’s commute, as some area roads are closed. The break happened Wednesday evening near Edsall Road and Van Dorn Street. Crews continue work this am on large water main break along Edsall Rd Alexandria. Road closed. @ABC7News @ABC7GMW https://t.co/5nE6dRjNrl Crews were working on the roadway early Thursday, but it was not known exactly when the road would reopen. Drivers are advised to avoid the area. Officials showed on Twitter pictures of the roadway crumbling under the pressure of the water. The Alexandria Police Department said in a Twitter message: “Water is a powerful force; Edsall Road is crumbling under the pressure, gone in many spots.” Water is a powerful force; Edsall Road is crumbling under the pressure, gone in many spots. Please avoid the area. https://t.co/N16MvbD94v Save Save


In this London borough, Brexit was decided in January

came to deposit their ballots on Thursday afternoon. John Burridge, 28, who works in marketing and advertising for Ford, said he voted to leave, largely due to immigration. “It’s just priorities,” he said. “It just doesn’t seem like people who are born in this country have them anymore.” But he said a government conspiracy was to likely ignore a “Leave” vote should one prevail. “See, I’m very, like, I think they’ve already made up their minds. … I don’t think it really counts, to be honest with you.” Another voter, Beryl Poffley, 86, who has lived her whole life in Romford, where she worked in a laundry, said she also voted “Leave” largely because of immigration issues. “We’re getting rapists, murderers, things like that,” she said outside the polling station. “They’re coming over, pretending they’re doctors, and they’re not.” Asked to clarify the “they,” Poffley specified that she was talking about “Muslims.” “They will not integrate,” she said. “They can, but they don’t even say hello. They walk past you as if you shouldn’t be here, you know. If they are sociable — I mean, you get a lot of your black people, they do. But a lot of these new ones that are coming over …” For others in Romford on Thursday, a “Leave” vote was a means of combating what they perceive to be excessive E.U. bureaucracy. For Sally Burton, 41, who works at a supermarket in the area, this was the main reason to brave the day's excessive rain. Asked to describe the E.U. in one word, she said: “I don’t want to say, ‘f---ed.’” But not everyone in this Euroskeptic enclave voted “Leave.” Terry Smith, 62, a retired social worker, was more than happy to explain why he voted “Remain.” “Britain has always had immigrants coming in, since medieval times,” he said. “My family came from France probably 200 years ago, and chose the name Smith. It’s what this country’s made of.” Although he said he sympathized with many of the frustrations with the E.U.’s bureaucracy, he said that the vote ultimately comes down to the country’s economic future. As he put it: “What you want is not what you need.” Read more: These countries could be next if Britain leaves the E.U. Pencil or pen? An unusual conspiracy theory grips Brexit vote. 7 photos of Brexit voters who shared their thoughts on the E.U. referendum


Want a beer with your book? That may soon be an option at Barnes & Noble.

A Barnes & Noble store in New York. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg) With the unveiling of a revamped store design on Thursday, Barnes & Noble seems to be betting that the way to its customers’ wallets is through their stomachs. The bookselling behemoth said in a presentation for investors that it will market test four redesigned stores later this year that feature larger café areas offering wine, beer and an expanded food menu, as well as table service. The goal is to boost traffic to the stores and to grow food and beverage sales from just under 10 percent of the retailer’s total sales to a larger pillar of the business. It’s not hard to see why Barnes & Noble would want to move in this direction. Consumers have been spending strongly on dining out, even as mall retailers and big-box stores have struggled to ring up sales. And a key part of Barnes & Noble’s strategy these days is to grow in categories outside of its core book business, which has long grappled with punishing competition from Amazon.com. (Jeffrey P. Bezos, the chief executive of Amazon, owns The Washington Post.) By offering wine, beer and what an executive described as “shareable, American-style food,” Barnes & Noble seeks to expand its hours of the day that the café is relevant to shoppers. The current offering is coffee-centric, and the cafés will continue to serve Starbucks drinks and sweets. But the new design is aimed at making Barnes & Noble a competitor for your dinnertime dollars, not just your morning or afternoon pick-me-up. One of the four pilot locations will be in the One Loudoun town center development in Ashburn. In a sign that the company is committing serious resources to getting the dining push right, it announced Thursday that chief operating officer Jaime Carey had been promoted to president of development and a newly created restaurant division. In many ways, Barnes & Noble’s plan reflects broader changes afoot in brick-and-mortar retailing: In order to give shoppers a reason to hit stores instead of shopping online, many chains are making their outposts more experiential. That’s why you see Lululemon stores offering exercise classes, or why Samsung has opened a New York location that features a live deejay and a walkable tunnel in which the walls can be lit up with your selfies. Barnes & Noble is hoping that if a bookworm can linger


Former DCity Smokehouse pitmaster Rob Sonderman’s next barbecue venture is still a year away

It's been six long months since we last tasted Rob Sonderman's barbecue at DCity Smokehouse, which the pitmaster left in January to work with former &pizza CEO Steve Salis on some new projects, including a below-the-radar revamp of the Afterwords Cafe inside Kramerbooks. Rob Sonderman has been revamping the menus at Afterwords Cafe while scouting locations for his next barbecue restaurant. (Amanda Voisard/For the Washington Post) Expect the dry spell to continue. When reached by phone, Sonderman says it'll be at least a year before he and Salis open their still-unnamed barbecue restaurant together. No lease has been signed yet for the project. In the meantime, the pair have been scouting locations for a pop-up. They thought they had a temporary space, but the deal fell through. [Pitmaster Rob Sonderman to leave DCity Smokehouse to launch another barbecue project.] "We're trying to find a place where we can get into it right away," Sonderman says. The pitmaster is eager not only to get back behind a smoker, but also to begin recipe testing and build awareness for the new concept. The restaurant will be a hybrid barbecue joint, Sonderman says, part quick-service and part full-service. He can't share more details because Salis — as Salis acknowledged to me in a brief phone chat — likes to keep information "close to the vest." Sonderman's absence has been felt on the D.C. barbecue scene. DCity, where the pitmaster almost single-handedly elevated Washington barbecue, is just a shadow of its former self, serving up substandard meats at its Wicked Bloom pop-up. Without Sonderman, DCity went from the best barbecue joint in the District to just another middling smokehouse. [A good pitmaster is difficult to replace. Witness what used to be D.C.’s best barbecue.] The pitmaster has been busy enough since leaving DCity. He's been helping to revamp the menus at the Afterwords Cafe at Kramerbooks, which Salis recently took over. Salis wouldn't confirm whether the current menus online reflect Sonderman's input, but there are tell-tale signs: The dinner menu features a grilled barbecue rib platter as well as a Cubano sandwich prepared with slow-smoked pork shoulder. There are numerous grilled meats, too. The changes at Afterwords Cafe have barely trickled out to the public, and that's how Salis would like it for now. "We don't need a lot of noise," he says. Meanwhile, Sonderman has been playing with an Ole Hickory smoker out


Three big ways Brexit could affect Americans personally

demand for government debt pulls down interest rates. That all translates into ultra-low mortgage rates for American households. And with Britain voting for Brexit, they could go even lower. Your retirement Many Americans are invested in the stock market through their retirement plans: About half of America’s full-time workers participate in their company’s 401(k), according to the Pew Charitable Trusts. Those investments leave them exposed to financial market turmoil surrounding Brexit. Already, even small shifts in polling ahead of the vote have caused much larger swings in financial conditions. In the past month, London’s major stock market index dropped nearly 6 percent before erasing those losses over the past few days. Other international indexes have experienced similar moves, on a smaller scale. On Wall Street, the direct exposure to Britain is not huge. Companies listed on the S&P 500 derive 2.9 percent of their sales from Britain and 11.5 percent from all of Europe, according to FactSet. But analysts say the worst-case scenario is that Britain’s decision to leave creates political and economic upheaval that sends investors running for the exits, catalyzing a sell-off in global markets that tests the stability of the international financial system. Retirement plans are long-haul investments, so most financial advisers don’t recommend making significant changes to your portfolio when faced with turbulence. Still, you may not want to look at your quarterly statement until after the dust settles. Your summer vacation The summer months are a lovely time to visit sunny old England. You can fly kites at the Portsmouth International Kite Festival, catch the Who at the Isle of Wight Festival or celebrate the Magna Carta at Hedingham Castle. Nearly 10 percent of tourists in Britain last year came from the United States, according to government statistics, and Americans spent more than any other nationality -- an average of 3,010 pounds ($4,418). The good news for Americans is that the exchange rate got better as Brexit drew closer. (It's not such good news for the British, but that's a separate story.) The pound is now worth $1.48, down roughly 8 percent from a year ago. Over the past week, it has spiked as investors bet that voters will decide to remain, but Goldman Sachs recently predicted it could drop 10 percent or more if Britain leaves the E.U. The bottom line is that Brexit is not as abstract as you might think. In late


Thoughts on Britain’s vote for Brexit

Although the finally tally is not yet complete, it is now clear that Britain has voted in favor of Brexit, and will likely leave the European Union. “Leave” won by a fairly narrow margin (about 52-48), but win it did. For reasons I outlined here, I think this is a bad development, and that the British have made a significant mistake. It is also likely that the Brexit cause prevailed in part because of widespread political ignorance. At the same time, I also recognize that the pro-Brexit side had some strong arguments, particularly with regard to the EU’s many ill-advised regulations, and poor decision-making on a variety of issues. There is now a great deal of uncertainty about what happens going forward. The biggest negative consequences may be a decline in free trade and free migration in Europe, both of which might cause serious harm to large numbers of people. Almost 3 million people from other EU countries currently live in Britain, and might potentially be deported. Expelling them would both inflict considerable suffering on the migrants themselves, and severely damage the British economy. But it is also far from clear exactly what Britain’s new immigration policy will be. Perhaps they will make it harder for new immigrants to enter, but let all or most of the EU migrants already in Britain stay. That would still inflict harm on potential migrants and those Britons who might have worked with them, but would be far less damaging than large-scale deportations. There is similar uncertainty about the future of trade. Many Brexit supporters favor a deal with the EU similar to that which Norway currently has, under which free trade will continue. But it is hard to say whether the rump EU will give Britain favorable terms. It could instead try to stick it to the UK in order to deter potential departures by other nations. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker recently threatened that, in the event of Brexit, “the deserters will not be welcomed with open arms.” At least in the short run, I fear that Brexit represents a victory for nationalistic, xenophobic forces opposed to free trade and migration. That bodes poorly for the future, especially since xenophobic nationalist forces have made gains in other European countries, and in the US (as represented by Donald Trump’s winning the Republican nomination on a platform similar to that of European far-right nationalists,


Five alarming immediate reactions to Brexit from the markets

Global markets suffered heavy losses and the British pound took a beating June 24, after Britain voted to leave the European Union. The United Kingdom voted Thursday to leave the European Union, a historic turn that underscored the deep fraying of the European political and economic union. It will take days, months and years to fully grapple with the consequences, but the earliest reactions from markets seemed to confirm experts' fears that Brexit would be deeply disruptive. While markets have previously been buffeted by global financial shocks -- including Greece's crisis last year -- many experts did not think the U.K. would actually take the gamble of leaving the E.U. It's certainly possible that markets will calm down overnight and throughout the weekend — no one can promise to offer an accurate forecast — but immediate signs from across the world were alarming. Here are five glaring alarm signs: 1. The Bloomberg terminal screen perhaps offers the world's first broadest reaction to the news, and it was flashing red all over with headlines early Friday morning. The screen noted heavy losses across Asian stock markets, while also noting that foreign currencies were strengthening against the British pound. Yields on U.S. Treasuries were falling, a sign of a flight to safety among investors. Hot headlines on the terminal about #Brexit now fill a full screen https://t.co/8JtIsG4Al3 2. The Standard & Poor's 500 index, which has held up in the face of worries about Brexit in recent weeks, appeared primed for deep declines Friday. At half past midnight, S&P futures, which are traded throughout the night, were down 5 percent. S&P 500 Futures https://t.co/WLRb2GdIaE 3. This alert from CNBC showed how almost no market was untouched by the news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 600 points, while gold had climbed $100 an ounce. Gold is often an asset investors buy in times of panic. Dow futures down over 600 points Gold up $100 Pound at 30 year low Ten year yield at 4 year lows Someone please make it stop #Brexit 4. As noted, investors often put money into gold when other assets, like stocks and bonds, become more risky. Google search data indicated a massive spike in searches for how to buy gold Thursday night. +500% spike in searches for "buy gold" in the past four hours https://t.co/pmMsRUcAwK 5. The British pound fell more than 10 percent in


These countries could be next now that Britain has left the E.U.

the decision. In Hungary, it might not be a clear-cut "in or out" referendum about E.U. membership that could cause trouble but rather a referendum that is designed to indirectly question Brussels's authority. France The French are some of the biggest E.U. skeptics: 61 percent have an unfavorable view of the union. (In comparison, in Hungary, only 37 percent of the population hold a similar opinion.) Besides Germany, France is continental Europe's driving force. But it also faces a multitude of problems, including a weak economy and a high terrorism threat. Some of the origins of these problems have been blamed on the E.U. or conditions created by its member states. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, for instance, is widely known for her support for austerity measures that were adopted after the last recession. Contrary to Germany, France still has not managed to fully escape high unemployment numbers and weak economic growth. Many French also watched with disbelief when Merkel opened Germany's borders to Syrian refugees in 2015. This could play into the hands of the right-wing National Front party, which is expected to gain more political power in upcoming elections. The party's leader, Marine Le Pen, has supported Brexit -- indicating what could be next for France should her party ever rule the country. Scotland as a particular case Britain has had two crucial referendums within only two years, but it might need to prepare for a third one -- and potentially Europe's only pro-E.U. referendum in a long time. Scotland voted to remain part of the United Kingdom in 2014, but the country is mostly pro-European Union. Considerations to join the E.U. are only thought experiments at this stage, but they are being conducted surprisingly publicly and in a detailed manner. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who is a member of the Scottish National Party, said Scotland will be weighing its options. Asked whether Scotland would really be prepared for another referendum on splitting from the United Kingdom, Sturgeon said that the issue was "definitely on the table." After months of campaigning, the "Leave" camp has won and Britain will be leaving the E.U. The Post's Adam Taylor talks about what that means for the country and Europe. Also read: 13 Brexit facts that will make Americans feel less embarrassed about their own election French activists handed out croissants in London to persuade Britain to stay in the E.U.


What will happen now that Britain has voted to leave the E.U.

he would not resign in the wake of a vote for Brexit, many in Britain will expect him to resign. It's possible that he may not do so right away – he may set a timetable to step down or wait for a leadership challenge. If the economic fallout is particularly bad, he may argue that he needs to stay in office to help steer Britain back on course, a process that could take months. Boris Johnson, the colorful former mayor of London, who was a loud voice in the Brexit campaign, is likely to be the favorite for new leader of the Conservative Party. However, his time in office may not last long. If a new leader of the Conservatives is selected, there will be pressure for the leader to call a general election. What would happen to the financial markets? The fallout was immediate after the referendum results were clear. The British pound plummeted and Asian stock markets swooned. The turmoil then spread to European stocks and Wall Street. Before the vote, investor George Soros had suggested a drop of 15 percent to 20 percent in the pound if the "leave" side came out on top. The euro is also expected to lose some value in the short term at least. A wide variety of financial institutions have made dire predictions about the long-term economic effects of a Brexit. Of course, these are predictions. What will happen ultimately isn't certain, but short-term pain for Britain and others seems very likely. What will happen to the European Union? The vote will definitely shake the grand European vision. It will certainly provide fuel for anti-E.U. politicians all over the continent. Recent polls have shown that countries such as France and Italy want their own votes on E.U. membership, and populists such as the French National Front's Marine Le Pen have found Euroskepticism to be a powerful message to voters. At the least, it will give the European Union another logistical problem at a time when it has many others already to deal with, including the refugee crisis, the economic issues across the euro zone and the continuing threat of Russian aggression. More on WorldViews: 13 Brexit facts that will make Americans feel less embarrassed about their own election What is Brexit? The complete guide to Britain’s E.U. drama for confused non-Europeans. Quiz: What do you actually know about the E.U.?


The remarkable parallels between the Brexit vote and the rise of Donald Trump

I will look out for you. I will Make America Great Again. * Consequences are overrated. For months, Britain’s political and economic elite had looked on with growing apprehension as the country flirted with a choice — popularly known as Brexit — that experts had warned could lead to global recession and a rip in the Western alliance. The vote could also lead to Scottish secession and raised the stakes for a possible broader E.U. unraveling. For almost the entirety of the Republican primary campaign, supporters of people like Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio insisted that "voters would come to their senses soon" as it related to Trump. He was too brash, too thin on policy. Voters would eventually see that nominating someone like him could have potentially disastrous consequences both for the GOP and the country. That idea ran particularly hot in the wake of the terror attacks in Paris and San Bernardino in late 2015. Trump quickly proposed a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States, a move that many party elites rolled their eyes at, dismissing it as both impractical and carrying a wide variety of unintended consequences — very few of which were good. They were wrong. Voters didn't care about how Trump's Muslim ban played on the world stage or the warnings from many elected leaders and national security experts that it could help spur recruiting from the very groups aiming to do us harm. Ditto British voters who were inundated with warnings about economic damage and other alarms a separation from the E.U. might set off. The idea of dire consequences for a "leave" vote paled in comparison to their view of the current state of affairs and why it needed to change. Make no mistake: This was a damn-the-torpedoes vote in Britain. And that's the same sort of how-can-it-be-worse-than-what-we've-got thinking that has spurred Trump to the verge of formally claiming the Republican presidential nomination next month in Cleveland. We are in the midst of a worldwide sea change regarding how people view themselves, their government and their countries. The Brexit vote and the rise of Trump — while separated by thousands of miles and an ocean — are both manifestations of that change. There will be more. In late June, many celebrated the referendum results, and British Prime Minister David Cameron announced that he will resign after Britons went to the polls.


The U.K. has voted for Brexit. Here’s what happens next.

E.U. Northern Ireland’s Sinn Fein party has already said that it wants to renew its push to reunite Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland. These tendencies, however, should not be exaggerated: Scottish nationalists may well decide that they don’t have the votes to win an election, and the Republic of Ireland is not necessarily enthusiastic at the prospect of sudden reunification and the associated upheavals. Yet this vote will surely lead to increased fracturing. For example, many pro-British loyalists and unionists were part of the “leave” camp in Northern Ireland, even while Catholic nationalists were probably more in favor of “remain.” These differences may heighten tension. More directly, the Good Friday agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland built on the connections of shared E.U. membership between the U.K. and Ireland. A U.K. withdrawal will likely damage the agreement. Europe will be very different without the U.K. — and vice-versa No one knows exactly what relationship the U.K. will have with Europe after the breakup. Britain is likely to now apply under Article 50 of the E.U.’s basic treaty to withdraw, which will lead to highly complex negotiations. The E.U. is not a simple international organization. European law is deeply entangled with the law of its member states, including the U.K. Disentangling the two from each other will be horrifically messy. One possible final outcome is for the U.K. to rejoin the European Free Trade Association, a club of states it helped set up before it was a member of the E.U., and become part of the European Economic Area. This would mean that the U.K. would still abide by many E.U. rules and have relatively free market access. However, it would have very little influence on how these rules were made. This, for example, will likely have serious consequences for the city of London. U.K. financial institutions have spent a decade fighting off financial regulations that they feared were intended to weaken the British financial sector, strengthening Frankfurt and Paris instead. Now, the U.K. may not have a seat at the negotiating table anymore. Another very difficult question will be the U.K.’s relationship with the Republic of Ireland. The U.K. and Ireland joined the E.U. together; they are intimately linked since the republic used to be part of the U.K. Irish nationals get many voting rights in Britain, and vice versa, and there is free travel between the


Europe is in crisis. So is its favorite sport. Can a soccer tournament show the way forward?

scoring their first goal. (Carl Recine/Reuters) “Ireland owe France. They owe them pain, misery and suffering,” Luke Edwards wrote in the Telegraph. “They owe them a defeat and should they somehow manage to knock them out of they own tournament, a beautiful revenge will be theirs.” This — passion, not prejudice, rivalry, not riots — is what soccer tournaments should be made of. Switzerland, meanwhile, is so far undefeated in the tournament, thanks in no small part to its Muslim contingent. Despite the death of its two fans, Northern Ireland advanced to the second round in its first-ever international tournament. On Saturday, it faces another feel-good team and fellow British squad, Wales. On Thursday, the Welsh voted to leave the E.U. The Northern Irish voted to stay. Wales is favored to win again tomorrow, this time on the soccer pitch. Last but not least, there is Iceland. It is the underdog of underdogs, less a dark horse than a pony that somehow snuck onto the racetrack and into the starting gate. Iceland has only 320,000 people, an incredible 8 percent of whom attended its opening game in France. Half the country’s population crowded the downtown of capital Reykjavik to watch its team defeat Austria (population 8.5 million) with a last-second, sliding, breakaway goal. An Icelandic TV commentator went so insane celebrating that he has become an internet sensation. Iceland commentator goes crazy! For its heroics, Iceland has earned an elimination game against England. Iceland will again be the underdog. In terms of European politics, the tiny nation has a head start on its rival, however. Iceland applied to join the E.U. after the 2009 financial crisis, but after its economy recovered more quickly than anticipated, it withdrew its application last year. After voting to pull out of the E.U. on Thursday, England may now look to countries like Iceland for ideas on what it means to be in Europe, but not the E.U. It is an identity crisis Britain is only beginning to suss out. Sport, and soccer, may play a role. “When Europe is the peak of ambition in football, and we compete so ferociously to get there,” former British prime minister Gordon Brown recently wondered, “why in other spheres of British life do so many seek to reject it?” A historian once wrote that, after World War II, “what really united Europe was football.” Perhaps it can again.


The Daily 202: Stop underestimating Trump. ‘Brexit’ vote shows why he can win.

the security perimeter is too large. -- Seven in 10 voters think Trump should sever ties to his businesses while running for president -- Three important columns from conservative thought leaders: 1. “Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan,” Peggy Noonan, a Reagan speechwriter, writes in the Wall Street Journal. “His supporters ought to stop saying he is, which comes off as desperate and historically illiterate.” 2. “Evangelical Christians are selling out faith for politics,” Michael Gerson, a George W. Bush speechwriter, writes in today's Post. 3. “I helped start the Moral Majority. Trump is the opposite of what we wanted,” Michael Farris, the chancellor of Patrick Henry College, writes for The Post. -- Clinton failed to turn over a key email to the State Department involving problems caused by her use of a private homebrew email server. The AP also reported that "scores of names and events" are missing from Clinton's calendar when she was secretary of state. -- “Tim Kaine is emerging as THE leading candidate” atop Clinton’s vice presidential short list, Politico reports. A woman holds a sign last night before Bernie Sanders's Town Hall in New York. (Justin Lane/EPA) -- Bernie is taking advantage of the fact he still has an audience. He taped Stephen Colbert, and then he gave an 87-MINUTE speech in New York that said nothing new. Walter Fauntroy, photographed at his house in Ajman, just north of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. The picture was taken by a U.S. Consulate official two weeks ago. And provided by Fauntroy's attorney. WAPO HIGHLIGHT: -- “Walter E. Fauntroy, the former District delegate to Congress and civil rights legend who left Washington in 2012 for the Persian Gulf — leaving his aging wife in debt and eluding a criminal charge in Maryland — vowed in his first interview in four years that he is coming home next week,” SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ: ZIGNAL VISUAL: After the vote was called, the most popular Tweets pointed to the result as a sign that Trump could win in November: Trump was asked in a deposition about his memory: In which Trump is asked in deposition about his boast to @KatyTurNBC that he has the "world's greatest memory" https://t.co/t5UWs5Ooxg Another classic Trump exchange on NBC last night: Trump just defends insane, unequivocal accusations by saying 'well it could be true, who knows?' https://t.co/rIQzOWQHix Down-ballot Democrats -- even in the county


Why Brexit is worse for Europe than Britain

flight to quality flows into the dollar and yen also risk bringing on alarm about emerging markets and a return to concern about currency wars. In late June, many celebrated the referendum results, and British Prime Minister David Cameron announced that he will resign after Britons went to the polls. Economics For Britain, the economic effects are two sided. On the one hand, a major jolt has been delivered to confidence, to future unity and down the road to trade. On the other, the currency has become more competitive, and liquidity will be in very ample supply. I would expect that a significant deterioration in growth and a recession beginning in the next 12 months has to be a substantial risk, though short of an odds on bet. As suggested by the fact that stock markets in Italy and Spain are down almost twice as much as in the U.K., the prospects for Europe may in some ways be worse than for the U.K. There is the real risk of “populist exit contagion” in a number of countries. A credit crunch is a serious risk. Unlike in Britain, the trade weighted exchange rate is unlikely to decline very much. The central bank has less room for incremental policy measures. The effects on the rest of the world will depend heavily on psychology. I continue to be alarmed, as I wrote in this space a few days ago, that this unexpected outcome in the U.K. will raise the specter of “Trump risk.” If the U.K. can vote for Brexit perhaps the United States can vote for Donald Trump. I fear this possibility will lead to a freezing up of spending decisions particularly on the part of internationally oriented businesses. The odds of U.S. recession beginning within the next 12 months are now in the 30 percent range. Also noteworthy is that an environment of increased risk aversion and flight to quality will complicate Japan’s problem of generating inflation and China’s challenge of attaining currency stability. To an extent that is underestimated in some quarters and understated in others, the world economy is far more brittle than usual because of the inability almost everywhere to lower interest rates substantially. Normally in response to incipient downturns, central banks lower rates by 400 basis points or more. Nowhere do they have that kind of room. Nor is there large scope for reducing term and


What does Brexit mean for the 2016 election?

Donald Trump gestures during a media event on the sand dunes of the Menie estate, the site for Trump’s proposed golf resort, near Aberdeen, Scotland, on May 27, 2010. Six years later, it’s just an amazeballs photo. (David Moir) So Britain (well, really, England and Wales), voted to leave the European Union Thursday. As the English would put it, this decision has created a small spot of bother in global financial markets and political capitals. Off the top of my head, the knock-on effects will include: - A downward revision of British and global economic growth; - Scotland holding a second referendum on independence; - Other E.U. countries holding referendums on exiting the E.U. as well; - The U.S. trade deficit worsening as the dollar’s strength increases even further; - A lot of commentators freaking out even more about the possibility of a President Trump. Lest one think I’m overstating that last point, here’s my Post colleague Anne Applebaum Friday: I do realize that it’s facile to talk about the impact on a U.S. election which is still many months away, that it’s too simple to say “first Brexit, then Trump.” But there is a way in which this election has to be seen, at the very least, as a possible harbinger of the future. This referendum campaign, as I wrote a few days ago, was not fought on the issues that are normally central to British elections. Identity politics trumped economics; arguments about “independence” and “sovereignty” defeated arguments about British influence and importance. The advice of once-trusted institutions was ignored. Elected leaders were swept aside. If that kind of transformation can take place in the U.K., then it can happen in the United States, too. We have been warned. It’s not just commentators making the Brexit-Trump parallel — it’s Trump himself: Trump on Brexit in UK: "I think there are great similarities between happened here and my campaign. People want to take their country back." So let’s focus on that last point, because as one considers how Brexit might impact the 2016 election, there are three possible answers. The first and most likely one is pretty simple: You know how much impact Obama had on Brexit? That's about as much impact Brexit will have on US elections. It’s true, most Americans have paid zero attention to Brexit. As Spoiler Alerts has pointed out repeatedly, when it comes to elections


Brexit vote is a slap to global leaders and celebrities

British stars Benedict Cumberbatch, Keira Knightley, Chiwetel Ejiofor and Helena Bonham Carter are among more than 250 celebrities who have signed a letter urging Britons to vote to remain in the European Union. (Reuters) A narrow majority of Britons voted for their country to exit the European Union, a move that has already plunged the global economy in a profound moment of uncertainty. The "Leave" camp, motivated by years of frustrations with political establishments in both London and Brussels, billed itself as the cause of regular folks seeking more control over their affairs. "This is a victory for ordinary people, for good people, for decent people," said Nigel Farage, a leading proponent of the Brexit -- remarks that were swiftly criticized for their divisiveness. Nevertheless, the build-up to the referendum was marked by a clear divide. The "Remain" camp had virtually every major world leader and global celebrity on its side. President Obama waded into the debate earlier this year, generating something of a backlash on both sides of the pond. Leading Western European leaders, from German Chancellor Angela Merkel to Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, all urged British voters to do the right thing and remain in the European Union. Their entreaties went unheeded. So too did the efforts of popular British cultural icons. Dozens of actors and other celebrities signed on with the Remain campaign -- you name them, and they were probably there. Benedict Cumberbatch. David and Victoria Beckham. J.K. Rowling. Elton John. Keira Knightley. Patrick Stewart. Jude Law. But in a referendum that became all about sticking the thumb into the eye of the elites, the star power of the Remain camp was ineffectual, and perhaps even counter-productive. "One thing is clear: Elites are not in control any more," writes Ivan Krastev, a Bulgarian political scientist. "Neither the fact that 9 out of 10 economists argued for Britain to stay, nor the fact that 9 out of 10 celebrities were cheerleaders of the Remain camp, swayed the people." A minority of celebrities did join the Leave campaign, including actress Elizabeth Hurley. "If it means we can go back to using decent lightbulbs and choose high-powered hairdryers and vacuum cleaners if we so wish, I'm joining Brexit for sure," she quipped ahead of the vote. More on WorldViews Londoners want their own referendum after Brexit vote. The rise and fall of Europe, in maps Save Save


In Britain, cultural resentments won out over stability. Can Donald Trump create the same result here?

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives at his Turnberry golf course Scotland on Friday. (Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters) As everyone wakes up to British voters’ decision to leave the European Union, it’s hard to find an analyst anywhere who says it’s a good thing, either for Great Britain itself or for the world. Donald Trump, however, was pleased. Appearing at the opening of his golf course in Turnberry, Scotland, he saw the potential to make money in the collapse of the British currency: “When the pound goes down, more people are coming to Turnberry, frankly,” he said. “For traveling and for other things, I think it very well could turn out to be a positive.” So there you go. Since I’m not an economist or an expert in British and European affairs, I won’t pretend to have any particular insight into what the practical effects of this vote will be over the short, medium, or long term. The answer to the question of how these events will affect our own economy seems to be that it might be significant, but it’s too early to tell. Nevertheless, it can help us think about the ways cultural resentment and nostalgia will play out in our own election. Yesterday, the Public Religion Research Institute released a major report on how cultural concerns are affecting the 2016 election, and it’s full of fascinating results about Trump voters in particular. Here are just a few: - 68 percent of Trump voters say the American way of life has gotten worse since the 1950s - 83 percent of Trump voters say foreign influence over America should be curtailed - 77 percent of Trump voters say they’re uncomfortable when they come in contact with immigrants who don’t speak English - 72 percent of Trump voters say we need a leader who’s willing to break the rules - 80 percent of Trump voters say immigrants create a burden on society - 81 percent of Trump voters say discrimination against whites is as big a problem as discrimination against minority groups - 77 percent of Trump voters say discrimination against Christians is a big problem Just as we’re seeing in Britain, cultural anxieties are often expressed as economic anxieties; the two aren’t completely separable. You can have a sincerely felt concern that immigrants will take your job, at the same time as what really bugs you is the feeling that they’re


How Brexit could push mortgage rates to historic lows

Here are three big ways that Britain leaving the E.U. might affect Americans. Brexit happened. Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate, said rates could sink to record lows in the coming weeks. “If you’re a borrower, don’t wait to lock your rate,” he said, “as this opportunity may not last long.” They’ve already hit rock bottom this year. In the past month alone, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have hovered around 3.7 percent, nearly a three-year low. Britain’s vote to leave the European Union is expected to drive rates even lower. [Live updates: Britain votes to leave the European Union] Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, said the low interest rates indicate low confidence in Americans’ ability to handle higher rates, due to a slew of factors both domestic and foreign. Rates have been about 17 percent lower than the median of this decade. However, McBride said his long-term outlook does not change with the Brexit vote. He still estimates a rebound from ultra-low rates by year’s end. Mortgage Bankers Association chief economist Michael Fratantoni forecast a rate of 4.8 percent by December 2017. That would be the highest rate since 2009, and a 30 percent boost from current levels. By the end of 2016, Fratantoni expects rates to reach 4 percent. He noted that he’s turned his estimates more conservative in recent months, but predicts an increase nevertheless. That could change with the Brexit referendum passing, however. He noted that Treasury rates had already dropped about 20 basis points by Friday morning. “At this point, it is unclear whether this will just be a short term disruption, or whether it will have a longer-term impact,” Fratantoni said. “Our best guess at this point is that the impact on the mortgage market will be to keep mortgage rates lower for longer, likely leading to another pickup in refinance activity.” International concerns, particularly slowing growth in China and Brexit, have played a major role in driving down mortgage rates. “Compared to 10, 20, 30 years ago, our rates are much more impacted by global circumstances than what used to be the case,” Fratantoni said. “We used to be much more of an island.” Global markets suffered heavy losses and the British pound took a beating June 24, after Britain voted to leave the European Union. International and domestic investors alike drive mortgage interest rates through the mortgage-backed security