The British are frantically Googling what the E.U. is, hours after voting to leave it

referendum in Britain to leave the European Union. And although leaders of the campaign to exit Europe are crowing over their victory, it seems many Britons may not even know what they had actually voted for. Awakening to a stock market plunge and a precipitous decline in the value of the pound that Britain hasn't seen in more than 30 years, voters now face a series of economic shocks that analysts say will only worsen before they improve. The consequences of the leave vote will be felt worldwide, even here in the United States, and some British voters say they now regret casting a ballot in favor of Brexit. "Even though I voted to leave, this morning I woke up and I just — the reality did actually hit me," one woman told the news channel ITV News. "If I'd had the opportunity to vote again, it would be to stay." That confusion over what Brexit might mean for the country's economy appears to have been reflected across the United Kingdom on Thursday. Google reported sharp upticks in searches not only related to the ballot measure but also about basic questions concerning the implications of the vote. At about 1 a.m. Eastern time, about eight hours after the polls closed, Google reported that searches for "what happens if we leave the EU" had more than tripled. (Google Trends) (Google Trends) The run-up to the vote was marked by a bitterly divided campaign, one that was as much about immigration fears as it was about the global economy. But despite the all-out attempts by either side to court voters, Britons were not only mystified by what would happen if they left the E.U.— many seemed not to even know what the European Union is. "What is the EU?" is the second top UK question on the EU since the #EURefResults were officially announced https://t.co/1q4VAX3qcm What is the E.U.? To be fair, that question will now take on a much deeper significance than perhaps Google's users realized when they typed that into their browsers. More on Brexit: Brexit-weary Britons suddenly want to run away to Canada, too British millennials like me are the real losers in the Brexit vote Here’s what to read and watch to understand the European Union Larry Summers: The critical fact Trump forgot in his viral speech on Brexit Five alarming immediate reactions to Brexit from the markets


Here’s why pollsters and pundits got Brexit wrong

close polls and relatively confident betting markets was due to the belief in status quo reversion — the idea that undecided voters will be more likely to choose the status quo option (in this case, Remain) than the alternative. This tendency is well supported — but as Steve Fisher and Alan Renwick have shown, this effect seems to be smaller in referendums which have been closer. It seems that no such effect was present here. That may either be because the effect is weaker than we thought it was, or because the Leave campaign was successful in creating the idea that a vote for Remain was not a vote for the status quo, but rather a vote for ever more European integration. These rival interpretations will only be settled when academic research on referendum voting behavior is released in the months to come. Fourth, given the types of areas that voted to Leave, and given the available polling evidence, it seems likely that a majority of Britons have traded economic benefits for restrictions on people from the European Union coming to live and work in Briton. The areas which voted Leave were older, whiter, and less likely to have a university education. I’ve already cited Fisher in support of many claims, but a blog post of his from three days before the referendum bears repeating: If people were forced to chose between accepting free movement as a price of free trade in the EU, or abandoning both, the contest would be close. But many do not think they face such a trade off. One poll shows 57% of Leave supporters believe that if Britain left, “it would probably be possible for Britain to negotiate free trade with the rest of the EU, without having to allow EU citizens to live and work in Britain. We don’t yet know what United Kingdom will be able to negotiate with the rest of the E.U. Indeed, we don’t know whether the United Kingdom is still united. Majorities of voters in Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain part of the E.U. Brexit has materially increased the probability of a second independence referendum in Scotland, and is also likely to exacerbate tensions in Northern Ireland. Neither Scottish independence nor a unified Ireland are “most probable” outcomes: but then neither was Brexit. Chris Hanretty is a Reader in Politics at the University of East Anglia.


Brexit: Same phenomenon, different country

The European Union and Union Jack flags fly outside City Hall in central London on Wednesday. (Leon Neal/Agence France-Presse via Getty Images) The stunning United Kingdom referendum vote to exit the European Union was in many ways a long time coming. Tories for years bemoaned the heavy hand of E.U. regulators and diminished British sovereignty. On one level, it was part of a long history of British antipathy toward the continent. But in this case, Brexit also tells us something about our own politics. It surely debunks the notion that our current turmoil is unique to the United States or can be attributed to one political charlatan. The waves of alienation, dissatisfaction and anger lapping over American politics also hit Britain and other industrialized societies. The hangover from the 2008 worldwide recession continues, shaking confidence in institutions (public and private), elites and markets. The economic collapse was the most traumatic — but not the only — shock to large segments of industrialized societies — especially to older, less-educated, less-skilled workers displaced by technology and globalism. (Young people in the United Kingdom voted overwhelming to remain in the E.U., older people to leave.) Coupled with a sense that their country — much like themselves — has been disrespected and buffeted by ominous forces, the temptation is to indulge in conspiracy theories, blame outsiders and resort to political nihilism. Soon leaders don’t lead, hucksters emerge to play on fear and instantaneous social media intensifies public mood swings and propagates all sorts of myths. (Foreigners are stealing our jobs! Free trade is bad!) A crisis in confidence, a sense of betrayal and real economic suffering are not therefore unique to the United States. Donald Trump is the result, not the cause, of the current political turmoil. He cannot be blamed on U.S. political elites — at least not those who resisted the rush toward nativism, xenophobia and protectionism. Brexit and Trump in a sense are both byproducts of the same economic trauma we have yet to address adequately. Unfortunately, a lot of elites on the right and left (anti-immigrant right-wingers, anti-Wall Street left-wingers) fan the populist flames rather than work on difficult social and economic problems. Political and business leaders can acknowledge the instinct to batten down the hatches. They can see how economic uncertainty can devolve into the irrational politics of fear. They can see how easily resentment overwhelms sound policy. However,


The critical fact Trump forgot in his viral speech on Brexit

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said at a news conference June 24 that if Britain leaving the E.U. devalues the British pound, "different places in Great Britain I think you're going to see a lot of activity." Donald Trump took time out of the fiercely contested presidential campaign this week to visit one of his golf courses in Scotland. Arriving there Friday, he commented on U.K. voters' unexpected decision to leave the European Union, saying that the vote would mean more business at the resort, Trump Turnberry. Trump's comments revealed one way the presumptive Republican nominee's financial holdings worldwide could create conflicts of interest if he wins the presidential election in November. The price of the pound plummeted after the U.K. referendum, which Trump said would make it cheaper for international tourists to visit his Scottish resorts. Yet that same decline in the pound will also put U.S. golf courses at a disadvantage relative to their competitors in Scotland. On the campaign trail, Trump promises to defend U.S. firms' interests vigorously. Yet he stands to make money if economic trends favor their competitors overseas. “When the pound goes down, more people are coming to Turnberry, frankly,” Trump told reporters in Turnberry. “For traveling and for other things, I think it very well could turn out to be a positive.” The price of the pound declined from $1.47 to $1.38 Thursday night, the worst day on record for the currency . To be sure, Trump also owns a number of businesses in the United States that rely on international tourism, notably his casinos. Declines in the price of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies could benefit him financially on net. Yet Trump has not made public many details about his financial position, breaking longstanding practice for the presidential nominees of major political parties in refusing to disclose his tax returns. As a result, it is impossible to say whether Trump might have to choose between the interests of U.S. firms and workers and his own pocketbook if elected president. When other currencies become more expensive relative to the dollar, goods produced in America — from Chevys to shale gas — become cheaper for international customers to buy. U.S. exports increase, and the workers who make them benefit. So do firms in the United States that rely on international tourism, since taking a vacation in the United States becomes cheaper. When


Donald Trump’s Brexit press conference was beyond bizarre

What's going on can be very, very nasty. Building safe-zones in Syria, great idea. Building safe zones magnificent, big safe as can be. But when you're taking them into the United States by the thousands and we don't know who they are, when you're taking them into Germany and other countries -- all you have to do is look around. Look around the world, see what's happening? It's some real problems. QUESTION: It is easy for politicians to use immigration to divide an electorate. How does a leader unite people? TRUMP: Well, you unite people by having a happy country. And when people pour into the country and it doesn't work, whether it's because of crime or various other things, you're not going to be uniting anybody. I just told you about Germany where people want to leave Germany. People there that I would never in a million years say that these people want to leave, but they're going to be leaving. So you can't unite a country by forcing things down to peoples' throat. And that's what happened here, people are not happy. Yes sir? QUESTION: Do you think that the referendums (ph) would have a seismic impact on the British economy? Do you intend to steal (ph) that for investments in Scotland? And how to does it feel to be on the sidelines of the news cycle? TRUMP: Well, you know, if anything, I have big investments over in Europe. I have — as you know, I own Dunebeg in Ireland, which is a phenomenal hotel. It's one of the most beautiful hotels. It's one of the most highly rated hotels in all of Europe and it's got a golf course on this large, five — almost 500-acre parcel of land, on the Atlantic Ocean, and does great. I own Turnberry, I own Aberdeen. I'm going to go stop at Aberdeen for a little while; I'm actually leaving — I'll only be here for one night, because I have to go back and campaign, which I actually love doing, to be honest with you. But I wanted to — really, I wanted to support my children, who have really poured their hearts and souls into this development. So — but — but you know, I think you understand. Yes, go ahead. QUESTION: Being — being you're campaigning, a lot of people in the States are saying, did you


The world’s most striking Brexit reactions, through cartoons

U.K. to leave E.U.! P.M. resigns ASAP! Pound now down! The headlines Such a sociopolitical temblor, of course, naturally moves artists and other visual-minded professionals to respond with creative commentary. And one of the more common initial responses was to cite Alan Moore and David Lloyd‘s dystopian graphic-novel masterwork, “V for Vendetta,” which centers on a UK anarchist in a Guy Fawkes mask who murderously plots to topple the government. “Warcraft” Suggest everyone in Britain go to their bookshops & order their New Britain users guide tomorrow morning. https://t.co/lnhXvIfwpo Another top British arts figure, Neil Gaiman — himself the creator of an epic DC/Vertigo masterwork in “Sandman” — seemed pithily heartfelt in his response on Twitter: Dear UK, good luck. I am afraid you are going to need it, love Neil. Elsewhere, here is how some political cartoonists are responding to the Great Brexit Break of 2016: Herb by Herb / Dagninen, Lillehammer, Norway via CartoonArts International 2016 Hajo de Reijger by Hajo de Reijger / The Netherlands, courtesy of CagleCartoons.com 2016 Marian Kamensky by Marian Kamensky, Slovakia, courtesy of CagleCartoons.com 2016 Schrank by Schrank / Basler Zeitung, Switzerland via CartoonArts Internationa 2016 Hassan Bleibel by Hassan Bleibel / courtesy of CagleCartoons.com 2016 What @STVNews cartoonist Neil Slorance thinks Nicola Sturgeon might say this morning... https://t.co/nFrUsFTZjA https://t.co/gT6FTegjOO Patrick Chappatte: by Patrick Chappatte, International New York Times, courtesy of CagleCartoons.com 2016 Randy Bish: #Brexit Here's my cartoon: #Britain #England #Eu #EuropeanUnion https://t.co/QAwkFhY5VK Rebecca Hendin: by Rebecca Hendin / Universal Uclick & BuzzFeed 2016 Darrin Bell: by Darrin Bell / WPWG 2016 Steve Breen: by Steve Breen / San Diego Union-Tribune 2016 Paresh Nath by Paresh Nath / Khaleej Times (UAE) courtesy of CagleCartoons.com 2016 Barry Blitt: “I was stunned when I heard the news [Friday] morning,” frequent New Yorker cover artist Barry Blitt said on the magazine’s website. “And really upset. I just sent money to my kid, who’s travelling over there — if I had just waited, I’d have saved a bundle now that the pound has collapsed.” by Barry Blitt courtesy of The New Yorker 2016 Read more: The Great Brexit Break of 2016, as illustrated by classic British literature


Brexit-weary Britons suddenly want to run away to Canada, too

exactly how many people in the U.K. are considering a move to Canada. However, you can get a general sense of the overall volume by comparing searches with each other. We know, for instance, that in the past 24 hours, U.K. search interest in moving to Canada briefly eclipsed interest in soccer player David Beckham. It also eclipsed interest in moving to Australia and the United States — as well as some other nations in the European Union, including Ireland, France and Germany. Americans have long viewed our neighbor to the north as a bastion of stability, politeness and good common-sense policymaking. Whenever things get a little crazy here — usually around election time — you'll see a spike in Americans thinking about bailing out and heading north. Little usually comes of it, of course. According to Politifact, citing data from the Canadian government, there may have been a small increase in Americans seeking permanent residency in Canada after the 2004 elections. But it's tough to know for sure. It makes sense for Americans to fantasize about a better life in the land of moose and maple — after all, Canada is just one porous, friendly border away. And despite the sheer geographic distance between the two countries, it makes some sense for Britons to entertain the same idea. They share a queen, after all. (Fun fact: It is correct to refer to the British Royal Family as the Canadian Royal Family.) Beyond that, cosmopolitan Britons aghast at their country's rejection of international integration and cooperation may look with some yearning upon the person of Justin Trudeau, Canada's youthful, progressive prime minister, who among other things has welcomed international refugees with literal open arms and generally sought to raise Canada's profile on the international stage. Again, as with prior American experiences, it seems likely that very few Britons will actually follow through with their Google searches and head overseas. On the other hand, the full repercussions of the Brexit vote will take several years to unravel. There'll be plenty of time for second-guessing in the months to come. After months of campaigning, the "Leave" camp has won and Britain will be leaving the E.U. The Post's Adam Taylor talks about what that means for the country and Europe. More from Wonkblog: Larry Summers: Three big ways Brexit could affect Americans personally Five alarming immediate reactions to Brexit from the markets


Britain voted to leave the E.U. and Twitter users couldn’t cope

Thursday proved a restless night for millions across the world as the E.U. referendum results trickled in. Many users took to social media claiming they couldn't sleep, while others were kept awake by Lindsay Lohan's somewhat epic Brexit tweetstorm. Scared to go to sleep. It's like the opposite of Christmas. #EURefResults Lindsay Lohan following the Brexit results. https://t.co/fH3RushwLe When the world woke up Friday to the news that Britain had voted to leave the E.U., Twitter erupted (as predicted) with thousands of gifs and memes. waking up to the news #EURefResults https://t.co/xjYAjG1CQD Stunned users couldn't help but express their disbelief at the referendum result. Live scenes from the Channel tunnel. https://t.co/l04wXKpjaq I wish nothing but the best for you too Don't forget me, I beg I'll remember you said... #Brexit https://t.co/y2jfGcYkgs Last one #Brexit https://t.co/IQOZr6Xob7 Others took a more food-focused approach. #Brexit in one photo... https://t.co/Ea6esAvI0t we're all thinking it #EURefResults https://t.co/WevNBvwZhu Others wished they could simply turn back time. News of the pound plummeting The Pound has plunged to its lowest value in over 30 years. I guess we're rich now. #Brexit https://t.co/CpvIkTEeCq While reaction to the vote was lighthearted on Twitter, Britain certainly has a complicated road ahead.


Five charts capture the world’s stunned — and scary — reaction to Brexit

response to the Brexit announcement. 1. The stock market's so-called "fear gauge" soared following the Brexit vote The VIX, a measure of expected volatility in the S&P 500 that is often called a "fear gauge," surged following Britain's vote, signaling the onset of the most turbulent trading day in months. The S&P 500 and the VIX tend to move in opposite directions, so when the VIX climbs, that indicates investors expect the S&P 500 to fall. VIX surges after Brexit https://t.co/VImY5qgMOI https://t.co/QuqVpLLqy2 2. Italian and Spanish bonds tumbled as investors sought safer investments. The vote for Brexit increased the perceived risk of economic and political instability across the European Union, especially in weaker economies like Italy and Spain. As a result, Italian and Spanish bonds tumbled as investors sought assets that are perceived as safer, like German bonds. The yield spread between Spanish 10-year-bonds and similar German bonds climbed to the highest levels seen since March 2015, before Europe's central bank began its massive bond-buying program. Italian, Spanish bonds tumble as UK #Brexit vote punishes peripherals https://t.co/DuVOb0OV9X via @aragaomarianna https://t.co/mr20BChsdC 3. Banks and government bodies cut back on forecasts for global economic growth. Following the Brexit vote, IHS Global Insight announced that it would cut its GDP growth forecasts for the UK to 1.5 percent from 2 percent in 2016, and to 0.2 percent from 2.4 percent in 2017. The U.K. Treasury has previously forecast that a vote to leave the UK would depress GDP by between 3.6 percent and 6 percent, The Guardian reported. JPMorgan shaves growth forecasts for euro-area in light of Brexit vote. https://t.co/mB8PEFaiMH 4. The pound fell to its lowest value against the U.S. dollar since 1985. The pound fell more than 8 percent Thursday night, the currency's worst day on record, as Wonkblog's Kim Soffen writes. 5. British real estate stocks suffered. The vote also sparked concern over the position of London as the world's foremost financial center and services hub. Shares of U.K. real estate firms plunged, as analysts predicted that London office price could fall by as much as 20 percent. London office prices may fall 20% after Brexit https://t.co/7X1mUYHI5v https://t.co/0I41QCtKml Here are three big ways that Britain leaving the E.U. might affect Americans. See also: Brexit-weary Britons suddenly want to run away to Canada, too Why Brexit is worse for Europe than Britain The stunning collapse of the British pound, in charts


Trump celebrates Brexit vote: ‘When the pound goes down, more people are coming to Turnberry.’

said he took time away from his presidential campaign to attend the opening in order to support his children, who took charge of the renovation. “I think it’s going to be one of the great hotels of the world. It already was, but it was in somewhat dilapidated shape,” Trump said. “We have something that is very special.” Reporters pressed Trump on the Brexit vote during a question-and-answer session after remarks by Trump and two of his children. “I really do see a parallel between what’s happening in the United States and what’s happening here,” Trump told reporters. “You just have to embrace it; it’s the will of the people." Trump has displayed little knowledge or interest in the E.U. referendum, even though he owns two golf resorts in Scotland that he has portrayed as teaching him about working with foreign nations. When asked a few weeks ago about the referendum by the Hollywood Reporter, Trump seemed to not understand the question. "Huh?" Trump said in the interview, which was published on June 1. "Brexit," reporter Michael Wolff repeated a second time. "Hmm," Trump said. "The Brits leaving the E.U.," Wolff prompted. "Oh yeah, I think they should leave," Trump said. The morning started quietly in the tiny village of Turnberry as dozens of reporters showed up at a muddy parking lot to be transported to Trump's resort about half a mile down the road. There was a cool wind off the Irish Sea, and the temperature hovered in the mid-50s. Just ahead of Trump's arrival, guests and resort staff members wearing red caps lined up on the grand stairwell leading from the street to the resort on a hilltop perch. A handful of men wearing dark suits and ties stood watch at the resort's various driveways, but there was no heavy police presence as expected by locals — and is usually seen at Trump's political events in the United States. But unlike those rowdy rallies, this event featured two bagpipers. Turnberry was built more than a century ago and purchased by Trump in 2014. The property has undergone extensive renovations and reopened June 1. The journey is the latest example of the fuzzy, and sometimes invisible, line between Trump the presumptive GOP nominee and Trump the businessman — an arrangement that many ethics experts, including many fellow Republicans, view as inappropriate or worse. They say Trump should take formal


Why an E.U. without Britain is bad news for the fight against climate change

that will have to happen to ensure these reductions. But with Britain’s pending departure, it’s not clear how this is going to work. In one scenario, Britain will become a nation like Norway, which is not an E.U. member state but is part of the European Economic Area. In its own recent pledge to the U.N. to cut its emissions, Norway adopted the same goal as the EU and said it intends to fulfill “this commitment through a collective delivery with the EU and its Member States. In the event that there is no agreement on a collective delivery with the EU, Norway” will fulfill the commitment individually. “The ambition level will remain the same in this event,” it continued. But Britain could also wind up in a more distant “free trade” relationship, which could affect the divvying up of greenhouse-gas-reduction responsibility. “We don’t know how long the exit process is going to take, and secondly, whether that would end up with the UK still in the single market, like Norway, and therefore still within the burden sharing agreement, or completely outside the EU as a separate state, and therefore, would submit its own [climate pledge],” Jordan said. “And in fact, it could take years until that’s clear.” “UK will not now take part in the sharing out of the EU 2030 target contained in the EU [pledge], and Brexit will likely make it more difficult for the EU to achieve that target as UK has been cutting its emissions by more than the EU average,” Ward said by email. Closely related but similarly unclear is how the E.U. and Britain will now join the Paris climate agreement, which does not come into force until 55 countries, representing 55 percent of global emissions, fully join. For the E.U., that was always going to be a complex process, with each member state having to individually go through its own process before the E.U. as a whole can join. It’s not immediately clear how Brexit influences or changes this. Christiana Figueres, the outgoing executive secretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, was quoted recently about Brexit as follows: “From the point of view of the Paris agreement, the U.K. is part of the EU and has put in its effort as part of the EU, so anything that would change that would require then a recalibration.” But it is not


This map shows Britain’s striking geographical divide over Brexit

Britain shocked the international community Friday morning with news that it has decided to leave the European Union. Many are wondering how this happened and whether this could be the beginning of the end of the United Kingdom. As the map above shows, there is a distinct divide over how different parts of Britain voted in the referendum. Scotland, Northern Ireland and London voted overwhelmingly to remain in the E.U., but other parts of Britain, such as England and Wales, voted to leave. Many of the areas that voted to leave included northern areas such as Welsh valleys and Sheffield. Overall, "leave" won by around 51.9 percent to 48.1, and turnout was a remarkable 72.2 percent, with more than 30 million people voting. However, the geographical divisions are stark: Who wanted to leave the European Union? - England voted to leave by 53.4 percent - Wales voted to leave by 52.5 percent - South East voted to leave by 51.8 percent Who wanted to stay in the European Union? - Scotland voted to stay by 62 percent, with Edinburgh voting to stay by 74 percent. - Northern Ireland voted to stay by 55.8 percent - London voted to stay by 59.9 percent Because of this geographical divide between those who wanted to remain vs. those who wanted to leave, people are concerned about whether this could result in the U.K. breaking down. As The Washington Post's Griff Witte reported in the past, Scotland wants to remain part of the E.U. and might revive the debate about its own independence. Now Londoners have also begun expressing their desire for independence from Britain. Read More: Brexit leader said victory came without a bullet being fired. He seems to have forgotten Jo Cox. With David Cameron stepping down, all eyes are on Boris Johnson These countries could be next now that Britain has left the E.U. Londoners want their own independence after Brexit result


Britain wants a sweetheart deal after Brexit. Fat chance Germany will give it one.

with Europe in the wake of Brexit will face strong headwinds. Merkel’s primary short-term concern is to stop the chain of dominoes from collapsing. For Berlin, the real risk after Brexit is that countries from Sweden to Hungary might call for their own exit referendums. If other countries started to peel away, Germany would fear enormous damage to the internal market that it relies on for its exports and the political project that it has spent the last 70 years building. The risk of a train of dominoes also casts uncertainty over European decision-making on a host of critical issues to Berlin, from migration to banking union. In order to shut down this threat, the chancellor will have to deal with the U.K. as it has dealt with Greece — with a stern and uncompromising hand. This will allow it to avoid the death by a thousand cuts, where each U.K. concession produces similar demands by other member states. Germany can use negotiations with the U.K. to shut down contagion. Wolfgang Schauble, Germany’s finance minister, made this clear in an interview earlier this week when he said, “In is in. Out is out.” In the mid-term, German bankers might indeed see Brexit as an opportunity rather than a disaster. Frankfurt has been working for the last two decades to modernize and internationalize its financial services sector. Nevertheless, it has continued to play second fiddle to London. In fact, a lobbying organization for Frankfurt’s financial sector opened a hotline today for London bankers interested in moving across the Channel. Hubertus Vath, the managing director of the body, was in a giddy mood, “The welcome banner is hung and Frankfurt’s doors are wide open.” Major banks have been exploring such a move. Morgan Stanley has been forced to deny that it is exploring moving 2,000 jobs from London to Dublin and Frankfurt. The German banking community, which has long had close ties to the Chancellery, will be a powerful voice for limiting concessions. Over time, Brexit might help Germany become a global financial services hub as well as a manufacturing powerhouse. Ironically, Berlin could stand to gain from Brexit both politically and economically. It provides Germany’s leaders a powerful moment to whip other member states into line and potentially consolidate integration in the core. At the same time, it could further consolidate Germany’s position as the economic powerhouse of Europe. Abraham Newman


Rich gamblers lost a lot of money when the U.K. voted to leave the European Union

happen next." Matthew Shaddick, who is the chief political analyst at Ladbrokes, a betting exchange based in London, is skeptical of the idea that the markets have become fundamentally less informative. "It's a nice theory," he said. "It feels like it's stretching a bit to me." Shaddick offers another explanation for why the results of Thursday's referendum came as a surprise: More affluent people tended to oppose the campaign to remove the United Kingdom from the European Union, and they also tended to place larger bets, skewing the market. Ladbrokes accepted about twice as many bets on the country leaving as bets on the country staying, Shaddick said, but the bets that the country would leave were for substantially larger stakes. At one point Thursday, the chance of exit for the United Kingdom had declined to just 8 percent, on one exchange. Soon after the polls closed, that figure began to increase rapidly. "There’s a huge amount of wishful thinking going on in people’s brains when they’re trying to assess the probabilities of these results," Shaddick said. "Combine that with the fact that one side happens to have more money than the other side, and it’s kind of inevitable that you’ll get this skew." In any case, Trump confronts major obstacles in his campaign for the presidency. His inflammatory rhetoric has alienated voters of color, who almost universally view him unfavorably, polling by The Washington Post and ABC News shows. It will be difficult for Trump to make up those votes among white voters, many of whom are also put off by his persona and his agenda. Trump's gains among white men and voters without college degrees have been balanced by losses among women and better-educated voters, who are also put off by the unusual candidate. Meanwhile, Trump's candidacy has apparently encouraged hundreds of thousands of immigrants who are eligible for citizenship to complete their applications so that they can vote against him. What effect these new voters will have on the election in the fall is unclear -- but the figures show that if the rules of American politics are changing, they might not all be changing in ways that favor Trump. More on Brexit: Five charts capture the world’s stunned — and scary — reaction to Brexit Brexit-weary Britons suddenly want to run away to Canada, too The critical fact Trump forgot in his viral speech on Brexit


One British industry could suffer a particularly harsh impact from Brexit

A taxi driver celebrates the result of the referendum, in central London on Friday. (Toby Melville/Reuters) Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union could have a particularly harsh impact on the country’s auto and manufacturing sectors. Manufacturing accounts for 10 percent of Britain’s gross domestic product, and the automotive industry employs nearly 800,000 people, including parts manufacturing. Another 41,000 are employed in motorsports businesses. Britain is Europe’s third-largest car manufacturer and second-largest car buyer. But 77 percent of all British-made cars are exported, the vast majority of which go to other European Union member states. Now, with Britain’s existing E.U. free trade agreement set to end in two years, those exports are in danger of being subject to international tariffs, both within and outside the continent. “It’s not the result we wanted or to a certain extent expected, but that’s democracy for you,” said Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, a British trade group. “Our members, our industry believed it was best for our country to stay in.” More than three quarters of SMMT’s members said remaining in the E.U. was best for their businesses, according to internal SMMT polling. Autos made up 12 percent of the country’s exports in 2014, according to the SMMT, and turned over 69.5 billion pounds in the British economy, or $94.6 billion. Without a new free trade agreement, exports could be subject to World Trade Organization tariffs, a nearly 10 percent duty. “We’re looking for signs from negotiators on both sides to acknowledge the importance of the British auto industry,” Hawes said. “There is an interest on both sides of the channels to get a deal done.” Carmakers worldwide were proceeding cautiously Friday in the wake of the Brexit vote, saying they respected the choice of the 52 percent of Britons who voted to leave the EU. All but two of the world’s 20 top automakers have manufacturing plants in Britain. “Today is just business as usual,” Jaguar Land Rover said in a statement. The company often advertises its British heritage. “We are a British business with a strong manufacturing base in this country, we call Britain home and we remain committed to all our manufacturing sites and investment decisions." "We respect the decision of the British people," the statement continued, "and in common with all other businesses, Jaguar Land Rover will analyse the issues arising from it: as


NFL says it’s ‘monitoring’ the post-Brexit situation in the United Kingdom

Will this scene become a thing of the past? (AP Photo/Tim Ireland) The NFL has gone all-in on staging games in London, with the possible goal of putting a team there permanently one day. So the globe-shaking news that voters in the United Kingdom have narrowly decided to detach themselves from the European Union is on the minds of league officials, for sure. “We are monitoring and have been in contact with our UK office,” league spokesman Brian McCarthy told Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio via email. “We head into the 2016 season in strong shape with the 3 UK games already nearing sell outs again — a testament to the strong and passionate fan base there — and all key media, sponsorship and licensing partnerships locked in.” There will be three NFL games in London this season, two at Wembley Stadium and one at Twickenham Stadium, primarily a rugby arena. By 2018, that number will grow to five when the league starts playing games at Tottenham Hotspur’s new stadium. But one observer seems to think those games could be endangered in the post-Brexit world. “The way the NFL view it is that London is a gateway to Europe,” Maria Patsalos, who advises UK sports teams on immigration issues for the Mishcon de Reya law firm in London, told the Telegraph. “My view is that [because] we pull out of Europe then they will reconsider that deal.” It’s obviously far too early to know whether Patsalos is right about that, and all the talk about a permanent team in London was just that: talk about a far-off pipe dream that had innumerable logistical hurdles to overcome. The Brexit vote probably adds another layer of uncertainty, because if the UK’s economy tanks as some are predicting and people stop buying tickets for a sport that remains something of a foreign curiosity, the NFL obviously will have to reconsider its options.


Why scientists are freaking out about Brexit

the European Union, with worries about what the split will mean about the future of research funding and the possibility of a "brain exit." Nobel Prize winning physicist Peter Higgs has described #Brexit results as a "disaster" for British science. Watch: https://t.co/rAEqwZyhfR Scientists were among the most opposed to Brexit. A survey by the journal Nature found that among 907 active U.K. scientists, 83 percent were in favor of staying. According to the journal, U.K. researchers have received 1.4 billion euro to support research since 2014. Physicist Stephen Hawking and 150 other fellows of the prestigious Royal Society who in March wrote a letter arguing that a departure would be a "disaster for UK science," warning that it would imperil Britain's ability to attract the best scientists from across Europe. In an interview with Scientific American, Lord Paul Drayson, a former British Minister of Science, said that there were a variety of reasons for scientists' opposition, ranging from philosophical ideas about the benefits of collaboration to more practical competitive reasons. "I’m on the board of the council of Oxford University, and Oxford is very clear that its ability to maintain its position as a world-class university would be negatively affected by Brexit, because it would not be able to attract the very best talent in the way in which it has been able to do up till now," Drayson told the magazine. In the wake of the vote, responses began to trickle in: Immediate effects of #Brexit on science as 1000s of scientists struggle to do anything other than stare into the abyss today. "In the past, U.K. science has been well supported by E.U. funding. This has been an essential supplement," Venki Ramakrishnan, president of the Royal Society said in a statement. “One of the great strengths of UK research has always been its international nature, and we need to continue to welcome researchers and students from abroad," Ramakrishnan added. "Any failure to maintain the free exchange of people and ideas between the UK and the international community including Europe could seriously harm UK science." US folks, prepare for a sudden rise in UK applicants for postdoc positions. And a retention of current British postdocs More from Wonkblog: Financial markets hit a tailspin after Britain’s E.U. exit vote Larry Summers: Three big ways Brexit could affect Americans personally One British industry could suffer a particularly harsh impact from Brexit


Brexit launches a thousand hot takes on what it means for U.S. politics

in full freak-out. The British vote doesn't repudiate her; she wasn't on Thursday's ballot. But she'll soon be on one here. And to many Americans, she represents just the sort of central-control, heavy-handed, know-it-all ethos that the European Union represents. Actually, there's no need to freak out. Brexit doesn't help Trump. Matthew Cooper at Newsweek lists four reasons why the Brexit vote doesn't mean Trump is more likely to win, after all. Here's a summary: First, while Britain voted for an action, a concept—let’s leave Europe—America is electing a president, a commander in chief. That means Trump will be judged for all of his individual strengths and flaws. ... Second, Britain held a straight majority vote. In the U.S., there’s the Electoral College, which is a tougher hurdle for Trump. ... Third, America is more diverse than the U.K. ... Finally, the other problem for Trump is that Britain went first, and the results don’t look great. Markets plummeted on Friday following the Leave vote. Even if they stabilize, Britain looks ready for a very rocky six months as the Leave campaign basks in its “independence” while, ironically, the U.K. begs the EU for good trade terms. The Leave campaign may seem sobering to Americans — and other Europeans — in the months ahead. Brexit gives Trump 'foreign policy credibility' Trump supported the United Kingdom's departure from the E.U. Hillary Clinton and President Obama did not. Trump got his desired outcome. Clinton and Obama did not. According to Breitbart's Joel Pollak Only Donald Trump had backed the campaign to leave. Republican strategists had panned Trump’s decision to travel to the UK in the midst of campaign turmoil, and in the wake of his blistering attack on Hillary Clinton earlier this week. Now, however, it looks like a risk that paid off handsomely, in the currency of foreign policy credibility. Brexit shows that Lindsay Lohan is more politically sophisticated than Trump Mic's Anna Swartz Twenty-eight-year-old expat Lohan, who moved to London in 2012, sounded off on the Brexit vote on Twitter on Thursday in a string of since-deleted Tweets, many of which had the hashtag #REMAIN, in which she implored the British public to vote to stay in the EU and invoked the name of Margaret Thatcher. She began by urging the people of Sunderland to vote "Remain" and then, getting very upset when results showed that they didn't. But the


Why Wall Street fought so hard against Brexit

to take at least two years, and banking industry officials say they will carefully watch the process for clues into how vast the fallout will be. Britain, for example, may be able to establish a financial regulatory framework that is harmonious with the rest of Europe. That would minimize the potential impact, analysts said. But if that is not possible, banks may be forced to move jobs to Frankfurt or Dublin, they said. "Likely London will lose some influence," Erik M. Oja, equity analyst for S&P Global Market Intelligence. But it depends on the negotiations that will occur over the new few years, he said: "These banks have invested a lot into the London hub, it’s not like they will move overnight." On Friday, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told employees in a memo that the bank will maintain a large presence throughout Britain. "In the months ahead, however, we may need to make changes to our European legal entity structure and the location of some roles," Dimon said. "While these changes are not certain, we have to be prepared to comply with new laws as we serve our clients around the world." Dimon said earlier this month that Brexit could force the bank to relocate thousands of employees. "After a Brexit we cannot do it all here, and we will have to start planning for that. I don't know if it means a thousand jobs, 2,000 jobs. It could be as many as 4,000," he said from Bournemouth on the southern coast of England, according to the BBC. Bank of America, which considered contributing to the Remain campaign, but ultimately stayed neutral, according to news reports, said it was still assessing the fallout from the vote. "In the coming months, we will get a much clearer understanding of what the implications of this might be for our business, as well as the decisions that we will need to make before the change in membership becomes effective," Alex Wilmot-Sitwell, president of Bank of America's Europe, Middle East and Africa division, said in a letter to employees. The most significant impact may be for Goldman Sachs, which isn’t expected to finish its new London headquarters until about 2019. “We have had a strong team focused on this potential result for many months,” Lloyd C. Blankfein, Goldman Sachs’ chief executive, said in a memo to employees. Jacob Bogage contributed to this report.


British millennials like me are the real losers in the Brexit vote

folks who share our British nationality. There’s a natural divide between generations around the world: There are those of us who grew up with the Internet, and those whose lives go largely unaffected by anything digital or global in nature. We’ve grown up believing in a future that transcends national borders because we experience that world in our work, interests and social lives online. Today, the future we imagined was stolen from us. Over the course of a single night, baby boomers have rejected expert opinion and torn apart my generation’s future. Why? Because a vague notion of making our country “great again,” combined with an infectious hysteria about immigration, was enough to convince them that things have to change. They were so convinced, in fact, that they were happy to vote for Leave without any definition of what “great” looks like, and no road map to actually achieving it. The situation becomes clearer and starker as the hours pass. Faced with the reality of Brexit, the Leave campaign has wasted no time in backtracking on their promises to restrict immigration and redirect our £350 million weekly E.U. contribution to the National Health Service. Martin Schulz, president of the European Parliament, is already set on fast-tracking Britain’s exit against the wishes of our divided Conservative government. Decades of uncertainty and political chaos have been unleashed by a generation of voters that barely possesses the digital literacy to use a USB stick correctly. As a result, our Parliament will spend years ignoring the tangible problems of ordinary people while they renegotiate long-held treaties that simply don’t need fixing. The vital resources that could deliver opportunity and prosperity for my generation will now be spent grasping for the little negotiating power the U.K. has left. The hope? That these crumbs of power can be used in a desperate battle for rapid agreement on new trade deals. Google has reported a dramatic increase in searches for Irish passport applications since the Leave result became clear this morning. If the conversations I’ve had today are anything to go by, the next big decision for baby boomers will be how to pay for their pensions when my generation pack up their bags to abandon the sinking ship that the U.K. has just become. Correction: An earlier version of this piece misstated how often Britain contributes to the E.U. It is £350 million weekly, not annually.


Russia’s track athletes are banned from Rio Games; what about its other sports?

IOC President Thomas Bach’s announcement this past week created headaches for international sports federations. (AP Photo/Joshua Paul, File) At a much-anticipated meeting in Switzerland this week, the International Olympic Committee affirmed the decision by the International Association of Athletics Federations — the global organization that oversees track and field — to ban Russia’s track and field team from the upcoming Summer Games in Rio de Janeiro because of growing evidence of widespread, state-supported drug cheating among Russian athletes. But when it came to Russia’s other potential Olympians, the IOC’s statements this week generated shockwaves in the offices of international sports organizations around the globe. As part of a “Five-point plan to ensure a level playing field for Athletes at the Olympic Games,” the IOC essentially said all Russians seeking to compete in Rio have to prove their innocence of drug cheating. The IOC also said that because the Russian Anti-Doping Agency was compromised (allegedly by state-supported sabotage), its tests are meaningless. As for who gets the unenviable task of figuring out how to vet Russian athletes for drug cheating without being able to use anything from Russia’s anti-doping agency, the IOC left that up to the individual sports federations. As a result, 27 global sports organizations are now scrambling to figure out how they should handle Russian athletes trying to compete at Rio, with roughly six weeks to go until the Opening Ceremonies on Aug. 5. (The IOC said the same thing about athletes from Kenya, whose anti-doping agency’s credentials also have been revoked, but that nation participates in far fewer Olympic sports than Russia.) Here are the major points on this fast-moving doping scandal — now probably the biggest in the history of organized sports — that could play out many different ways between now and Aug. 5. What is considered proven about Russian doping? That Russia’s track and field team has been rife with drug cheating for years, and that RUSADA, the agency entrusted to catch elite Russian athletes who dope, has allowed athletes to get away with cheating, either because of corruption within RUSADA, or because of acquiescence to requests from government officials in Russia’s sports ministry to allow certain athletes to cheat. Do we know for a fact other Russian sports — such as swimming, wrestling and boxing — have similarly widespread doping problems as Russian track and field? No, but there is evidence the problem


extends beyond track and field. Media reports — most prominently a series of documentaries by German journalist Hajo Seppelt — have uncovered evidence of systemic, state-sponsored cheating across elite Russian athletes in multiple sports. In May, a former director of Russia’s anti-doping laboratory told the New York Times he had helped athletes in summer and winter sports cheat, including dozens of athletes at the 2014 Winter Games in Sochi, where he also claims he participated in a scheme to replace tainted urine samples of cheating Russians with clean urine. But until this year, investigations of Russian doping by the World Anti-Doping Agency, the global agency charged with combatting drug cheating in sports, have been focused on track and field. In May, WADA started investigating the Russian lab director’s allegations, with a target completion date of July 15. (WADA, which first got tips from whistleblowers about widespread Russian doping in 2010, is being scrutinized for not launching broader investigations earlier.) And how many athletes are we talking about here? Potentially more than 300. In 2012, Russia sent 430 athletes to compete in 30 sports at the Summer Games in London, according to What’s a federation? While the IOC runs the Olympic games, 28 federations oversee the individual sports that make up the Summer Games, such as the IAAF for track and field, FINA for swimming, and FIG for gymnastics. These federations are based all around the globe, with many of them headquartered in Lausanne, the same Swiss city where the IOC is based. Have any of the other federations said how they’ll determine whether to allow Russians to compete in Rio? As of Friday, the answer is yes — two, and that number could change every day. The This week, the Washington Post contacted four other federations, those that oversee swimming, gymnastics, boxing and wrestling. A FIG spokeswoman said the Russian gymnastics team is cleared for competition because the federation conducts its own drug tests of gymnasts — independent of RUSADA — even out of competition. A FIG spokeswoman did not reply to a request for more information about how often it tests gymnasts out of competition. None of the other federations replied. Why can’t all Russian athletes just get tested now to prove they’re not doping? Just because an athlete tests clean today does not mean he or she hasn’t been doping. Sports history is filled with examples of notorious


Calm down everyone, Brexit won’t affect ‘Game of Thrones’

The massive HBO series is filmed in Northern Ireland, which will soon no longer be part of the E.U. Here's why that matters. There's a lot at stake with the United Kingdom's recent vote to leave the European Union. But here's one thing everyone can breathe a sigh of relief about: Filming of the HBO series "Game of Thrones," primarily shot in Northern Ireland, will not be affected by Brexit. Amidst the Brexit media storm, articles have surfaced that the smash-hit series could see a huge hike in production costs from the U.K.'s decision to leave the E.U. But HBO confirmed Friday that filming of the series will go on as scheduled. "We do not anticipate that the result of the EU Referendum will have any material effect on HBO producing Game of Thrones," said HBO spokesperson Jeff Cusson in an email to The Post on Friday. It was also previously reported that "Game of Thrones" is partly funded by the E.U.'s European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) in an effort to spark economic growth in E.U. countries. Loss of membership in the union could remove HBO's financial incentives to film in Northern Ireland, claims have said, which would prompt HBO to look elsewhere for filming locations. But HBO said that the series has not received funding from the ERDF, so that will not affect production costs. Cusson did confirm that HBO receives other localized tax incentives to film in Northern Ireland, but that no production plans have been impacted from recent events. The "Game of Thrones" main production office is located in Belfast, where a majority of the show is filmed. Last week's episode, "Battle of the Bastards," was shot in the island country, the episode reportedly costing a whopping $10 million to produce. The show is already supremely expensive to produce, making fans concerned that economic uncertainty could affect the show's production. But film and television enthusiasts have reason for worry beyond "Thrones." The U.K.'s departure from the E.U. could have devastating effects on the entertainment industry in Britain and the E.U. Unknown market volatility and tax policies across Europe will make it an unattractive place to produce expensive projects. Michael Ryan of the Independent Film and Television Alliance told Variety: "The decision to exit the European Union is a major blow to the U.K. film and TV industry. Producing films and television programs is a very expensive and


Dow drops more than 600 points as Brexit raises risk of global recession

financial sector remain resilient and are confident that the U.K. authorities are well-positioned to address the consequences of the referendum outcome,” they said. In the United States, the fallout from Britain's decision is likely to keep the economy at stall speed this year but reduce growth as much as 0.6 percent next year, analysts at Morgan Stanley estimated. The dollar spiked nearly 2 percent against a basket of currencies Friday, though it remains below this year's peak. That makes it more expensive to export American goods, and the relative strength of the dollar has been weighing on the U.S. recovery over the past two years. Beyond the immediate financial volatility, Brexit unleashed fresh uncertainty over the future of the U.K. economy and its relationship with the rest of the world. Many analysts predicted that Britain’s economy could contract if businesses withhold investment and wary households rein in spending until a new fiscal order is established. S&P warned that it could downgrade Britain’s credit rating “by more than one notch” after the vote. Britain has at least two years to negotiate the terms of its E.U. departure and will have to strike new trade agreements with a host of nations. Though President Obama warned earlier this year that Britain would go “to the back of the queue” in any trade talks, the White House issued a statement Friday that called both Britain and the E.U. “indispensable partners.” “The people of the United Kingdom have spoken, and we respect their decision,” Obama said. “The special relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom is enduring.” Investors around the world appeared to be caught off-guard by the outcome of Britain’s referendum. As late as Thursday afternoon, public opinion polls gave a slight edge to the campaign to remain. But as the vote tallies rolled in overnight, it became clear the polls had been wrong — and traders started scrambling for the exits. Alongside the sweeping sell-off in global stock markets was a rush into safe haven investments such as gold and U.S. government bonds. Gold prices hit a two-year high, while the yield on 10-year Treasury notes dropped to 1.57 percent, a level not seen since 2012. Yields move in the opposite direction of prices. “Financial markets react to unexpected but also high-magnitude events,” Clem Miller, a portfolio manager at U.S.-based Wilmington Trust, said from London. “This is a high-magnitude event for


The tea party spirit crossed the Atlantic during the Brexit campaign

In a stunning victory for the "Leave" campaign, Britain has voted to exit the European Union. Here's what happens next. EDINBURGH, Scotland — Friday, as it turned out, was an appropriate moment for Donald Trump to arrive in the United Kingdom. “Come November, the American people will have the chance to re-declare their independence,” the presumptive Republican presidential nominee said in a statement issued as he landed to visit his golf course at Turnberry. “I hope America is watching, it will soon be time to believe in America again.” The implication was clear: Where Britain led this past week, the United States might follow in November. But that gets it backward. This people’s revolt represented, in many respects, the Americanization of British politics. The “leave” campaign’s slogan — its devastatingly effective slogan — of “take back control” was positively Trumpian. Indeed, some of the same forces of alienation, discontent, economic insecurity and racial animosity that produced Trump in the United States have now hauled Britain out of the European Union. This past week’s revolution, arguably the greatest political insurrection since the dawn of the democratic era, offers further evidence that some political trends recognize no borders or boundaries. It was more than just a political battle; it was a culture war, too. And it bore the hallmarks of the one that began in the United States 50 years ago. The campaign, at its crudest, pitted the “people” against the “establishment,” the powerless against the powerful. The “leave” side cast itself as a guerrilla insurgency against a complacent and out-of-touch governing elite. Like recent U.S. campaigns, this one was marked by a distaste for experts. There were shades of Barry Goldwater and the United States’ 2010 tea party wave in this; shades, perhaps, of the Reagan revolution, too. Brexit might break everything, the thinking went, but unless things are broken, nothing can change. This is Year Zero now. The referendum laid bare the fault lines in British society, and they turn out to be as stark as the divisions between red and blue America. Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to stay in Europe; England and Wales opted out. Within England, London — cosmopolitan, liberal, wealthy — voted for the status quo, but rural areas, from the sleepy shires to the rusting post-industrial towns of the north, chose to leave. In doing so, they revolted against more than just Brussels and the


How Brexit could affect your wallet

Here are three big ways that Britain leaving the E.U. might affect Americans. Global stock markets plunged to their lowest levels in months Friday after Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, making an immediate dent in Americans’ 401(k) accounts and sparking concerns about other financial impacts for the average U.S. consumer. In the near-term, the ripple effects of the Brexit may be felt beyond retirement accounts in the form of lower mortgage rates and a stronger dollar that boosts Americans’ purchasing power. But in other ways, the events taking place across the pond may not lead to much change for consumers who are already used to struggling with paltry rates on savings accounts, rising housing costs and a dimmer outlook for the global economy. “The Brexit vote just further delays the day savers see any improvement in their returns,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.com. “On the bright side, that European vacation just got cheaper.” Here’s a look at the different ways the Brexit could affect your finances. Retirement accounts It may be years before Britain is fully separated from the E.U., but Americans may feel some near-term pain in their retirement accounts as markets digest the news. Market analysts said Friday that stock markets could continue to see ups and downs over the next several weeks as we learn more about how Britain’s decision will affect the rest of Europe, and how much it can influence the economy at home. Most investors who are decades away from retirement have plenty of time for their portfolios to recover from any losses they might see in the near term. But for people who expect to retire sooner, say within the next five years, it may be a good time to look at their savings, insurance and other parts of their retirement plan to make sure they’re prepared to deal with the volatility, said Christian Weller, a retirement income expert and professor of public policy at the University of Massachusetts Boston. For instance, some people may want to make sure they have enough cash on hand so that they can pay for living expenses in their first few years of retirement without having to sell stocks at a time when markets may be falling. “Start to think about how can you get in a comfortable situation so you can live with the uncertainty,” Weller said. Mortgages cheaper — for


How Brexit affects the global technology industry

E.U. regulations, British companies would thrive. But the uncertainty in the immediate aftermath of the vote makes some uneasy. “Europe is such an important economy, it would be a shame if this and some existing policy proposals by some in the E.U. came into effect in a way that dampened the ability to use technology and grow their economies,” said Ed Black, president of the Computer and Communications Industry Association. Funding: Britain benefits in large part from funds such as the European Investment Fund, which backs an estimated 41 percent of venture capital investments in Europe. Its majority investor is the European Investment Bank. But if Britain is no longer a part of Europe, that dries up a source of funding just as questions about how a U.K. shorn of its E.U. ties will regulate health tech, financial tech and other technology industries. For its part, the EIF has said that it will continue business as usual for the time being. But the vote has injected a note of uncertainty into the start-up market, as Britain will now have to make its own negotiations with the fund. “The European Investment Fund takes note, with regret, of the vote of the British people to leave the European Union,” the group said in a statement. “EIF will actively engage with the EIB and relevant European institutions to define the EIF’s activity in the UK as part of the broader discussions to determine the future relationship of the UK with Europe and European bodies." Others also have financial concerns. For example, the video game industry in particular has said that it's worried that the new tax environment won't be as favorable to it as the E.U.'s has been. Immigration: The concerns echo the talking points of the tech industry’s calls for immigration reform in the U.S. right now. The tech industry has repeatedly said that it needs to be able to recruit highly skilled foreign-born workers from across the globe in order to meet its labor demands. Todd Schulte, president of the U.S. immigration group FWD.us, said that while the situations between the U.S. and Britain are obviously different, the need for support for a foreign-born workforce is not. “In a globalized economy, when you’re trying to sell to the world, a diverse workforce is an asset,” he said. There are also worries that companies that looked to London as an ideal place


Three years later, Juan Martin del Potro returns to Wimbledon ‘almost feeling 100 percent’

seeing improvement and that’s giving me confidence to keep working and work hard to the future. My biggest challenge for this year would be at the end of the year to finish healthy and be ready for the next season.” Do you feel like you have to play differently because of these surgeries? “At the moment, yes, because I cannot use my backhand 100 percent, so I have play more often with my slices. I have to do serve and volleys. I’m hitting harder with my forehands. …In the future, I will hit my backhand as I did before and my game is going to come back and I will play like I did in the past.” What is your summer schedule like? “I play Davis Cup after here. Then I play in Washington, D.C. [at the Citi Open, where he has won three times] and then the Olympics.” Some tennis players say Grand Slams are most important, others say Olympics are more important. What do you think? “Well, for me [the Olympics are] very special. I won the bronze medal in the last Olympics. I know how it feels after winning a medal for your country. I did it beating Djokovic in the bronze-medal match. Of course that’s been one of my biggest success of my career. But every player is different. …But my view, it’s playing for my country, so I would like to go there to get some medals.” There are athletes who are choosing not to go because of the Zika virus. Was that ever a concern for you? “I don’t think so. They are taking care of all their athletes. All of the world will be watching, so they have to be prepared and ready to take care of us. I’ve been in Brazil many times. It’s a really nice country. Of course, for me, all the athletes will be enjoying the Olympic Games for sure.” I know you started working with a new coach, Dani Vallverdu. How long do you plan on working with him? “We are trying this week. We know each other since juniors, so we have a great relationship. He was alone, and I’ve been alone too. We spoke and he came here to help me a little bit, and in the future we’ll see. We’re going to see what happens, but he’s a great guy and he’s a great coach.”


After Brexit, here are further British downgrades

British comedian Russell Brand performs during the Closing Ceremony at the 2012 Summer Olympics, Sunday, Aug. 12, 2012, in London. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel) If I learned anything from the opening to the 2012 London Olympics, it is that Britain’s value lies not just in its economic properties but in its intellectual properties. The pound may have experienced a drop of 7.6 percent, which is, as the New York Times notes, 21 times its usual average daily move, since the vote to Brexit. But a similar devaluation is taking place across the board in Britain’s intellectual exports. Here are a few other downgrades. One Direction has been downgraded to One Direction Minus Harry Styles. (Et tu, 1D?) Doctor Who is now PhD Candidate Who. The Queen is now The Jack. Sherlock Holmes is now Sherlock Mobile Holmes. Buckingham Palace has become Buckingscrapple Palace.* Parliament is a carton of cigarettes.* Henry the Fifth is now Henry the Nip. Henry VIII has been downgraded to a normal-sized man with no more than three wives. Monty Python’s Flying Circus has become Monty Python’s Grounded Petting Zoo.** Tea has been downgraded to Coffee. Boris Johnson has been downgraded to Donald Trump. All “theatres” are now “theaters.” All “colours” are now “colors.” Shakespeare remains, but all the characters not originally from the United Kingdom have been returned to their countries of origin. (Sorry, Hamlet.) All Dickens novels have had their word count decreased by 10% (this improved some of them, we are ashamed to admit). E. M. Forster’s ‘A Room With A View’ has been downgraded to ‘A Room.’ P. G. Wodehouse has been downgraded to PG-13 Wodehouse. Helen Mirren and Idris Elba are now only as attractive as normal people. Harry Potter has been downgraded to Percy Jackson. The UK version of ‘The Office’ is officially no better than the US version of ‘The Office.’ All British Accents have been downgraded to Peter Dinklage’s Accent On Game Of Thrones. Encyclopedia Britannica has been downgraded to Wikipedia. ‘Pride and Prejudice’ has been downgraded to Prejudice. ‘Remains of the Day’ has been downgraded to ‘Leaves Of The Day.’ “Keep Calm and Carry On” is now “Carry On!”* Great Britain is Britain. *Thanks, Talia Lavin! **Thanks, Alex Horton!


The Daily Trail: Does Brexit give Donald Trump a boost?

byproduct of the hundreds of #hottakes to emerge over the past 24 hours or so. Callum Borchers had a great rundown of a few of the most popular, starting with the idea that... Hold on — it may be a bumpy ride. (Photo by Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images) —maybe yesterday's vote is a good sign for Donald Trump. "If you're a supporter of Donald Trump, Friday's brilliant sunrise over Chicago raised your prospects for a bright Nov. 8 as well," wrote the Chicago Tribune editorial board. "British citizens' rebellion against the European Union is one more vindication of Trump's campaign calculus on this side of the pond: Millions of voters in Western countries are furious about unchecked immigration, overweening government regulation and slow jobs growth after a recession that ended seven years ago this month. ... "We'd wager that, as we type these paragraphs, Hillary Clinton's game-planners are in full freak-out. The British vote doesn't repudiate her; she wasn't on Thursday's ballot. But she'll soon be on one here. And to many Americans, she represents just the sort of central-control, heavy-handed, know-it-all ethos that the European Union represents." —Or maybe it doesn't help Trump at all. "Finally, the other problem for Trump is that Britain went first, and the results don’t look great. Markets plummeted on Friday following the Leave vote. Even if they stabilize, Britain looks ready for a very rocky six months as the Leave campaign basks in its 'independence' while, ironically, the U.K. begs the EU for good trade terms. The Leave campaign may seem sobering to Americans — and other Europeans — in the months ahead." Britain's Friday, in five words. (LEON NEAL/AFP/Getty Images) —If those takes aren't sizzling enough for you, try some Texas heat: Forget Brexit. Could Texit be next? (The answer, of course, is no. But that didn't stop people from imagining how that sort of thing might look. For instance: "AUSTIN, Texas — Americans woke up in a state of complete shock on Friday morning, as Texas stunned the world by voting to leave the United States," wrote via Vox's Zach Beauchamp "'I fought this campaign in the only way I know how, which is to say directly and passionately what I think and feel,' Gov. Greg Abbott, the referendum’s leading opponent, said in a tearful resignation speech. ..." (Again: this is not a thing that happened. This is just what it might


‘Captivity is degrading’: Why a major city is shutting down its zoo

problems that have attracted international outcry. Last year, two sea lions died within three days of each other. Zoo workers protested what they said was mistreatment of the animals and staff members, claiming the situation caused “preventable [animal] deaths,” according to the Argentina Independent. In 2012, the zoo’s last polar bear, Winner, died after having to endure high temperatures and fireworks during the Christmas season. The 14-year-old male had been transferred from Santiago, Chile, and was a feature attraction at the Buenos Aires facility. A polar bear eats fruit from a Christmas tree made of ice and decorated with special meals prepared by zookeepers at the Buenos Aires Zoo on Dec. 8, 2004. (Enrique Marcarian/Reuters) On Thursday the city’s mayor said “today this place generates more sadness than happiness.” The move follows news of a zoo closure in Canada, where the director was charged with animal cruelty-related offenses. Some countries have tied to shut down public zoos altogether. Costa Rica attempted to close its public zoos in 2013 as officials proclaimed animals shouldn’t live in captivity, but the government lost a court battle the following year. In Buenos Aires, the zoo has been privately operated since the 1990s. Its license was set to expire at the end of 2017. The new ecopark will be “a place where children can learn how to take care of and relate with the different species,” the mayor, according to the Guardian. “What we have to value is the animals. The way they live here is definitely not the way to do that.” A rhino at the Buenos Aires Zoo on June 24, 2016. (Juan Mabromata/AFP/Getty) Some of the animals that are too old or sick will remain at the ecopark, the Guardian reported. That includes Sandra, an orangutan that an Argentinian court recognized in 2014 as a “non-human person” that has a right to freedom. “The most important thing is breaking with the model of captivity and exhibition,” said animal rights lawyer Gerardo Biglia, a longtime activist pushing for the zoo’s closure, the Guardian reported. “I think there is a change coming for which we are already prepared because kids nowadays consider it obvious that it’s wrong for animals to be caged.” READ MORE: 8 times other animals wanted freedom as much as Inky the octopus The unsurprising diet secrets of zoo animals The long battle to remove elephants from the Ringling Bros. circus


The people who will suffer the most severe impact of Brexit don’t live in the U.K.

Postcards featuring the World War II British slogan "Keep Calm and Carry On" are seen outside a newsstand in London (Leon Neal/Agence France-Presse via Getty Images) Britain is not just a hub for global financial activity and a major trading partner for countries on both sides of the Atlantic. Another aspect of the importance of the British economy is the nation's relationship with the developing world. Immigrants working in Britain send billions of pounds home every year, and the nation is one of the world's most generous in terms of international aid. "In relation to developing countries, you know, Britain plays a very important role," said Alan Gelb, an economist at the Center for Global Development in Washington. As a result, British voters' decision to divorce their county from the European Union — which caused a frenzy in global markets Friday — is especially worrisome for those developing economies that are closely bound to Britain. In a stunning victory for the "Leave" campaign, Britain has voted to exit the European Union. Here's what happens next. In the short term, the collapse in the value of the pound means that remittances and aid coming from Britain will be worth less to the people receiving it. In the medium term, the possibility for less expansion or even contraction in the British economy generally means that immigrants and the government will have less money to send abroad. Britain has committed to spending 0.7 percent of national income on foreign aid — about 12.2 billion pounds — which is more than all but a handful of wealthy countries. Beyond that bottom line, Gelb said, the British offer aid in ways that are genuinely useful to the countries that receive it. Unlike other nations, they are less likely to focus on advancing their own interests in their charitable spending abroad. According to the British government, the greatest beneficiary of that aid in 2014 was Ethiopia, which received 322 million pounds that year. That aid alone accounted for about 0.8 percent of the Ethiopian economy at the time, based on data from the World Bank. Another major beneficiary was Sierra Leone, which received 238 million pounds in aid from the United Kingdom — the equivalent of nearly 6.8 percent of its economy. With the decline in the price of sterling, the British government will be able to provide less help to those countries. The pound lost


Media reacts to Brexit: ‘Welcome to Boris Island’

LONDON — When the results of the European Union referendum were announced Friday morning, the nation's newspapers had long been printed. But on Saturday, readers all over the world woke up to a global selection of front pages emphasizing the significance of what happened in Britain on Thursday. Pro-E.U. voices in Britain have blamed influential tabloid newspapers, such as the Daily Mail and the Sun, to have helped persuade the majority of the country to vote for a Brexit. The two mass-circulation dailies appeared unimpressed by such criticism on Saturday. DAILY MAIL FRONT PAGE: 'Take a bow, Britain' #skypapers https://t.co/uAlWVBAtmD THE SUN FRONT PAGE: 'Why should I do the hard s**t?' #skypapers https://t.co/rcHgwUxkGi Front page of @dailytelegraph #Brexit https://t.co/422xXt7t6d But those papers that had advocated for a remain in the E.U. made no secret of the potentially devastating negative repercussions the referendum might have, according to their opinion editors. While the Financial Times stuck to the facts and used a striking photo of a shocked Prime Minister David Cameron to make its point, the Independent's criticism was much harsher. Very strong front page on the @FT... https://t.co/q42OHCOOTx Tomorrow's @independent front page #tomorrowspaperstoday To subscribe to the daily edition: https://t.co/XF8VnDpHYF https://t.co/ZVsVQoycND In Northern Ireland, the Evening Express newspaper showed worries about the repercussions the vote could have on Europe. "I was elated when the walls came down in my country, now it feels like more walls are going up," one writer argued. Today's @EveningExpress front page following the #BrexitVote https://t.co/1mOFMmcPma Foreign media reacted with a mixture of shock, humor and lack of understanding. France's leftist Liberation newspaper showed a photo of former London mayor and pro-Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson being trapped on a ropeway. "Good luck," the cover read. France's Libération newspaper doesn't hold back with its #EUref front page. Headline in English as well @quatremer https://t.co/ZF5ueBIAHf Saturday's Bild: "OUTsch!" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers https://t.co/FAqb5SjDWb (via @hendopolis) Okładka "Algemeen Dagblad", gazety codziennej z Holandii. https://t.co/aqOSlYhXjT Nikkei front page. Last headline this big was the 3/11 earthquake. https://t.co/Mhkw9c2LQF Also read: 7 reasons why some Europeans hate the E.U. This map shows Britain’s striking geographical divide over Brexit These countries could be next now that Britain has left the E.U.


Why people who really wanted Brexit will regret it most

the people? It turns out that there's some evidence that many people might not have known exactly what they were doing. Courtesy of Google, we know many Britons were searching for more information about what the E.U. is … hours after voting concluded. Meanwhile, on Twitter, a hashtag circulated, #regrexit, highlighting how some people in Britain decided they had made a mistake voting to leave. But perhaps the best evidence that people who voted for Brexit will come to regret it — if they haven't already — came via this report from the Center for European Reform, a think tank that favored Britain remaining in the E.U. By leaving, Britain is potentially also leaving its network of trade agreements within the region, pending negotiations. For areas that depend on exports for their economic sustenance, a less favorable trade agreements could deal a serious blow. Polling showed the areas that had the most to lose and the least to gain from the Brexit are precisely those where the referendum saw the most support. In other words, the places — the most export-heavy regions —most hurt by the economic disruptions caused by Brexit could be the places that pushed hardest for it, as this scatter plot shows. The biggest economic effect is felt by regions whose economies depend on industries such as manufacturing, mining, agriculture and utilities. These sectors participate in a lot of trade within the E.U. market, as opposed to domestically or globally. London, on the other hand, feels the smallest effect of the Brexit. As one of the world's primary financial centers, most of its trade occurs globally, outside of the E.U., so new trade restrictions within Europe would not deal the economy a large blow. But beyond economics, these very regions don’t have much to gain from the Brexit. One of the primary drivers of the campaign was an attempt to control the influx of refugees from the Middle East and Eastern Europe. And yet, the areas with the most immigrants, like London, tend to be much more in favor of remaining in the E.U., according to the center's report. With the British pound tanking and bringing the global economy with it, these local economies might soon start to question what they've done. In late June, many celebrated the referendum results, and British Prime Minister David Cameron announced that he will resign after Britons went to the polls.


The uncomfortable question: Was the Brexit vote based on racism?

U.K. Independence Party leader Nigel Farage on June 16 poses during the launch of a new poster campaign ahead of the E.U. referendum in Smith Square in London. (Facundo Arrizabalaga/European Pressphoto Agency) As the world tries to make sense of Britain's vote to leave the European Union, an uncomfortable question keeps coming up: Is there a link between racist and intolerant attitudes in Britain and Britons' animosity toward the E.U.? Data from Google Trends shows a sudden spike in searches for "Brexit racist" and "Brexit xenophobia" on Friday, the day the results of the referendum became known. And on social media, there was no shortage of people suggesting a clear link between these factors and the results. We must learn from brexit: Elderly xenophobes will lie to pollsters to hide their racist views, then vote for destructive policies anyway. The idea is hardly new; accusations of racism have followed the anti-E.U. movement for years, with some reason. Nigel Farage, the leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party (Ukip), has spoke of the "n—-r vote" and told reporters that he would use a racist slang word to refer to Chinese restaurants. However, the party have long been at pains to emphasize that their concern is E.U. mismanagement rather than race; often pointing to nonwhite Ukip members to suggest their support cuts across racial lines. One oft-used rebuttal to charges of racism is that it's about levels of immigration — a genuine policy issue — rather than prejudice. There's certainly no denying that there has been an enormous surge in the number of migrants arriving to the country in the past few decades; net migration reached a record high of 336,000 last year. More than half of these migrants came from E.U. states. There's no reason they shouldn't have — freedom of movement is one of the key principles of the E.U. — but the reality of this movement was often difficult. Sometimes these new E.U. immigrants were willing to undercut their local competitors, leading to the widespread tabloid stereotype of the "Polish plumber" stealing Britons' work. To add to this, in the past few years the scores of refugees and migrants traveling to Europe from the Middle East and Africa have made British concerns about immigration from non-E.U. nationals worse. While relatively few of these migrants actually made it to Britain, the idea of a foreign invasion was all over British


After residents voted for Brexit, this British county realized the E.U. might stop sending them money

counties such as Cornwall would have most to lose from Brexit. The E.U. particularly supports poorer regions and member states with its subsidies — which is why the poorest in Britain may feel the lack of money being transferred from Brussels most. "Cornwall is a major beneficiary of EU spending so if Britain were to leave then the Treasury would have to take great care in ensuring its local economy was not crippled as a result," Jonathan Lindsell, one of the study's authors, explained in an interview with the Western Morning News after the study was published in 2014. But such warnings did not deter Cornwall residents from voting for Brexit. "Leave" campaigners had previously reassured the county that it would not lose any subsidies if it left the E.U. However, Cornwall officials are now worried that such reassurances might have been little more than ill-thought-out promises. "Prior to the referendum we were reassured by the ‘leave’ campaign that a decision to leave the EU would not affect the EU funding which has already been allocated to Cornwall," the council wrote in a statement on Friday. "We are seeking urgent confirmation from Ministers that this is the case," the statement continued. Cornwall officials' fears are not unjustified: Only hours after helping to convince the British to vote for Brexit, the leader of the U.K. Independence Party, Nigel Farage, appeared to show uncertainty whether all promises would be kept. Some Brexit supporters had previously told voters that the $470 million the British allegedly transfers to the E.U. each week would be allocated to the national health-care system in case of a Brexit. Besides immigration, the desolate state of Britain's health-care system (NHS) significantly contributed to anti-E.U. anger, as Euroskeptics blamed the European Union for costing the country too much and wasting resources that could be spent domestically. But on Friday, Farage suddenly said it was a "mistake" to have promised allocating $470 million to the NHS and distanced himself from that campaign slogan, saying he had never agreed to it. In late June, many celebrated the referendum results, and British Prime Minister David Cameron announced that he will resign after Britons went to the polls. Also read: Meet the European leaders hoping to cause the next Brexit These countries could be next now that Britain has left the E.U. What will happen now that Britain has voted to leave the E.U.


The first Olympic golf competition since 1904 will be without many of the world’s top golfers

Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland is among golf’s world leaders who will not be competing in Rio this August. (Andrew Redington/Getty Images) Several of the world’s best golfers won’t be competing in the Rio Olympics, and that’s left International Olympic Committee member Barry Maister questioning why the sport is even being included in the Games at all. Rory McIlroy and Marc Leishman were among those to pull out due to concerns over the Zika virus, while several others, including Adam Scott, Louis Oosthuizen and Vijay Singh, are not competing because of scheduling conflicts. Maister appeared on Newstalk ZB and called the fallout from the exodus “appalling.” Transcribed via Insidethegames.biz: “I don’t like it, and I don’t think the sport should be allowed to continue in the Games under that scenario. Once they’ve got in, they have got to deliver. Just getting in with your name, and then putting up some second or third rate players, is so far from the Olympic ideal or the expectation of the Olympic movement. “The Olympics is about the best, and they pledged the best. Quite frankly, any sport that cannot deliver its best athletes, in my view, should not be there.” Golf hasn’t been featured in the Olympics since the 1904 Summer Games. In 2009, the IOC voted to reinstate the sport for the 2016 and 2020 Summer Olympics, but its future could be in jeopardy with poor turnout in the upcoming games. “After speaking with those closest to me, I’ve come to realize that my health and my family’s health comes before anything else,” McIlroy said in a statement released Wednesday by his management company. “Even though the risk of infection from the Zika virus is considered low, it is a risk nonetheless and a risk I am unwilling to take.” South Africa’s Branden Grace pulled out because of fears surrounding the Zika virus, but said he intends to compete in the 2020 Olympics.


The startling human toll of Brexit

LEON NEALLEON NEAL/AFP/Getty Images On paper, Britain's vote to exit the European Union will change little in the short term. The U.K. has two years to untangle trade agreements, financial obligations and legal frameworks as it divorces itself from the rest of Europe. But in reality, a lot is already changing. When it comes to the economy, people’s expectations alone can alter everything. Just the anticipation of Britain leaving the E.U. is already transforming the fortunes of billions of people in Britain and around the world – influencing the cost of goods they buy, and affecting their decisions about where to live and work, and the jobs that will be available to them. Global markets suffered heavy losses and the British pound took a beating June 24, after Britain voted to leave the European Union. No one can know for sure exactly how Brexit will unfold. And predictions about the future are contentious: Those who voted to leave the European Union argue that the move will free up billions of pounds that Britain sends to the continent each year, while those who voted to stay believe those benefit are greatly outweighed by the potential damages. But many economists are predicting that Thursday’s decision will have a chilling effect on the British economy. Here is what that might mean in reality for everyday people and businesses, in Britain and abroad. Hitting consumers where it hurts One of the easiest effects of Brexit to understand is the likely impact on British consumers. Investors, anticipating that Britain’s economy would slow, have begun moving their money out of the country, a process that requires selling pounds and buying foreign currencies. That led to a historic drop in the value of the pound Thursday night, to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985. That currency change means each British pound will buy fewer goods abroad than it once did. In other words, imports become more expensive, and the prices of many goods inside Britain will rise. As a smallish island nation, Britain imports a lot, including more than half its food and nearly half of its oil and gas in recent years. In the run-up to the referendum, executives – including the heads of some of Britain’s largest retailers, such as Tesco, Marks and Spencer’s, Asda, Sainsbury’s and B&Q – warned that clothing, food, wine, and other imported products would likely become more costly


An astute online comment has some wondering whether Brexit may ever happen

A redux of the argument goes like this: British Prime Minster David Cameron had said that he would invoke Article 50 — which establishes a timetable for formally breaking up with the E.U. — if his country voted to leave the E.U. In fact, he'd said he would do it the morning after. Instead, in announcing his impending resignation, he may be trying to shield his legacy by passing the responsibility of triggering a potentially catastrophic Brexit to his successor. Given that Cameron's likely successors are Brexit supporters from within his party, one might think that they would simply go ahead and invoke Article 50, setting the E.U. pullout process in motion. But, as Teebs notes, these likely successors have been quite subdued in their remarks since the referendum — and some are nowhere to be found. Boris Johnson, London's former mayor and a favorite to succeed Cameron, has said that there is no need to trigger Article 50 right away. Other "Brexiteers" from within Cameron's Conservative Party have simply avoided the question. Amazing that Boris & Gove are nowhere to be seen this morning. Haven't answered a single question from the press since their famous victory Add @DanHannanMEP to the list of Brexiteers who have gone awol since the result. https://t.co/vsjnjz9j3E MISSING: George Osborne, 45, has not been seen since Thursday. Last seen in London. Could be using the name Gideon. https://t.co/hLqDzv9JaQ Britain after #Brexit summed up in one photo https://t.co/aqpxFlJvXm In other words, the consequences of Brexit are so stark and may hold such disastrous implications that Cameron's successor might hold off on invoking Article 50. As Teebs puts it, "The enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew." It doesn't seem as if anyone is stepping up to that task yet. In late June, many celebrated the referendum results, and British Prime Minister David Cameron announced that he will resign after Britons went to the polls. Read More: Britain, E.U. are at odds over timing of exit Meet the European leaders hoping to cause the next Brexit Great Britain reckons with possible future as Little England


Hillary Clinton leads, but Donald Trump supporters are more certain they’ll vote

men as did Mitt Romney four years ago — and white men are just as likely to say they're going to vote as they were then. White women are much less supportive of Trump than Romney, but they are also less likely to say they're certain to turn out to vote. Part of this probably overlaps with the general dissatisfaction with both candidates. White women are less likely to support Trump than they were Romney and less certain to vote — perhaps because neither option was palatable. That may also be the case with younger voters. They prefer Clinton to Trump but heavily backed Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries. They, too, may be more indifferent to voting in November as a result. It's worth noting that the figures above include data from people who aren't necessarily registered to vote. Just among those who are registered, though, the graph above doesn't change much. Registered voters are more likely to say they're certain to vote (again, in part, because voting tends to be a habitual act). The most noticeable change here is that the drop among non-white voters is much smaller than in past polling. But then we loop back to those figures among Hispanic voters. The Democrats will and are putting a huge emphasis on registering and turning out Hispanic voters, a group that heavily prefers Clinton. In fact, the graphs above tell the story of the most recent elections: When the electorate is younger and more diverse, Democrats often do better. This election, like every other, will come down to the voters who make it to the polls in November. There may be a more succinct way to say that, which we will leave as an exercise to the reader. FILE - In this Oct. 22, 2015 file photo, Democratic presidential candidate, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton listens while testifying on Capitol Hill in Washington before the House Benghazi Committee. Hillary Clinton’s work-related emails from her private account are now public, more than 52,000 pages detailing her tenure as America’s top diplomat but failing to resolve questions about how she and her closest aides handled classified information. Several investigations continue looking into her exclusive use of a non-government email account and homebrew server while in government, an issue that has dogged her campaign, even though she seems well-positioned to capture the Democratic presidential nomination. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)


Brexit, “Regrexit,” and the impact of political ignorance [updated with brief comment on post-referendum survey data]

the voters made the wrong choice. Although I personally believe that the British should have voted for Remain, I also recognize that there were strong arguments in favor of Leave and that the issue is a very difficult one. In my book on political ignorance, I describe a number of scenarios where political ignorance actually has beneficial effects. Perhaps the Brexit vote was another such case, though these sorts of situations are very much the exception rather than the rule. Even so, it is troubling that there was widespread ignorance on a vote of such great importance. Sadly, British voters’ ignorance about Brexit-related issues is just one example of the broader phenomenon of rational political ignorance, under which voters make little effort to learn about politics and public policy because the chance of any one vote influencing the outcome is extremely small. Such ignorance is common in Britain, the United States, and around the world. Georgetown Professor Jason Brennan, one of the world’s leading academic experts on voting and political knowledge, argues that the Brexit case suggests that we should not allow such decisions to be made by popular referendum. Perhaps it would have been better if the Brexit question were decided by Parliament, whose members, on average, know more than the voters do, and who overwhelmingly oppose Brexit. They could still potentially veto the referendum result by refusing to follow through on it. Brennan is right to argue that referenda are often influenced by ignorance. But it is not clear that leaving more decisions to elected officials will improve the situation. As Brennan recognizes, public ignorance also heavily influences our choices on who to vote for in regular elections. Candidates and parties are well aware of that, and their platforms are heavily influenced by the need to cater to poorly informed voters. In some respects, elections are even more susceptible to the influence of ignorance than referenda are. In a parliamentary election (or a presidential election in the United States), there is an extremely wide range of issues at stake, which makes it difficult or impossible for the voters to be well-informed about more than a small fraction of them. By contrast, a referendum can focus on a single, discrete issue, which may reduce the information burden on voters. In some cases, referendum initiatives actually lead to better policy than legislative decisions. For example, in the aftermath of the