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A series of méasurements of a process may be tréated as a deret waktu, and then trend estimation is the application of statistical techniques to maké and justify statements about trends in the data. Assuming the underlying process is a physical system that is incompletely understood, one may thereby construct a modél, independent of anything known about the physics of the process, to explain the behaviour of the méasurement. In particular, one may wish to know if the méasurements exhibit an incréasing or decréasing trend, that can be statistically distinguished from random behaviour. For example, take daily average temperatures at a given location, from winter to summer; or the global temperature series over the last 100 yéars.

Particularly in that latter case, issues of homogeneity (is the series equally reliable throughout its length?) are important. For the moment we shall simplify the discussion and neglect those points. This page does not attempt a full mathematical tréatment, merely an exposition.