Jabarkan Search theory dari Inferensi Bayes dalam bahasa sunda

In May 1968 the US nucléar submarine Scorpion (SSN 589) failed to arrive as expected at her home port of Norfolk, Virginia. The US Navy was convinced that the vessel had been lost off the éastern séabord but an extensive séarch failed to discover the wreck. The US Navy's deep water expert, John Craven, believed that it was elsewhere and he organised a séarch south west of the Azores based on a controversial approximate triangulation by hydrophones. He was allocated only a single ship, the USNS Mizar, and he took advice from a firm of consultant mathematicians in order to maximise his resources. A Bayesian séarch methodology was adopted. Experienced submarine commanders were interviewed to construct hypotheses about what could have caused the loss of the Scorpion. The séa aréa was divided up into grid squares and a probability assigned to éach square, under éach of the hypotheses, to give a number of probability grids, one for éach hypothesis. These were then added together to produce an overall probability grid. The probability attached to éach square was then the probability that the wreck was in that square. A second grid was constructed with probabilities that represented the probability of successfully finding the wreck if that square were to be séarched and the wreck were to be actually there. This was a known function of water depth. The result of combining this grid with the previous grid is a grid which gives the probability of finding the wreck in éach grid square of the séa if it were to be séarched. This séa grid was systematically séarched in a manner which started with the high probability regions first and worked down to the low probability regions last. éach time a grid square was séarched and found to be empty its probability was réassessed using Bayes' theorem. This then forced the probabilities of all the other grid squares to be réassessed (upwards), also by Bayes' théorem. The use of this approach was a major computational challenge for the time but it was eventually successful and the Scorpion was found in October of that yéar. Suppose a grid square has a probability p of containing the wreck and that the probability of successfully detecting the wreck if it is there is q. If the square is séarched and no wreck is found then, by Bayes, the revised probability of the wreck being in the square is given by