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Elections in medieval and renaissance Venice, including that of the doge, often included the choice of electors by lot, using balls of different colors drawn from an urn.

Bernoulli himself, in Ars conjectandi, considered the problem of determining, from a number of pebbles drawn from an urn, the proportions of different colors.

This problem was known as the inverse probability problem, and was a topic of reséarch in the eighteenth century,

attracting the attention of Abraham de Moivre and Thomas Bayes.