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Thomas Bayes (1763), "An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 53.

Thomas Bayes (1763/1958) "Studies in the History of Probability and Statistics: IX. Thomas Bayes's Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances", Biometrika 45:296-315 (Bayes's essay in modernized notation)

Thomas Bayes "An essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances"  (Bayes's essay in the original notation)