In this task, you are given the abstract of a research paper. Your task is to generate a summary of this abstract. Your summary should not be very short, but it's better if it's not more than 30 words.

[EX Q]: The domain of time-series forecasting has been extensively studied because it is of fundamental importance in many real-life applications. Weather prediction, traffic flow forecasting or sales are compelling examples of sequential phenomena. Predictive models generally make use of the relations between past and future values. However, in the case of stationary time-series, observed values also drastically depend on a number of exogenous features that can be used to improve forecasting quality. In this work, we propose a change of paradigm which consists in learning such features in embeddings vectors within recurrent neural networks. We apply our framework to forecast smart cards tap-in logs in the Parisian subway network. Results show that context-embedded models perform quantitatively better in one-step ahead and multi-step ahead forecasting.
[EX A]: In order to forecast multivariate stationary time-series we learn embeddings containing contextual features within a RNN; we apply the framework on public transportation data

[EX Q]: The machine learning and computer vision community is witnessing an unprecedented rate of new tasks being proposed and addressed, thanks to the power of deep convolutional networks to find complex mappings from X to Y. The advent of each task often accompanies the release of a large-scale human-labeled dataset, for supervised training of the deep network. However, it is expensive and time-consuming to manually label sufficient amount of training data. Therefore, it is important to develop algorithms that can leverage off-the-shelf labeled dataset to learn useful knowledge for the target task. While previous works mostly focus on transfer learning from a single source, we study multi-source transfer across domains and tasks (MS-DTT), in a semi-supervised setting. We propose GradMix, a model-agnostic method applicable to any model trained with gradient-based learning rule. GradMix transfers knowledge via gradient descent, by weighting and mixing the gradients from all sources during training. Our method follows a meta-learning objective, by assigning layer-wise weights to the source gradients, such that the combined gradient follows the direction that can minimize the loss for a small set of samples from the target dataset. In addition, we propose to adaptively adjust the learning rate for each mini-batch based on its importance to the target task, and a pseudo-labeling method to leverage the unlabeled samples in the target domain. We perform experiments on two MS-DTT tasks: digit recognition and action recognition, and demonstrate the advantageous performance of the proposed method against multiple baselines.
[EX A]: We propose a gradient-based method to transfer knowledge from multiple sources across different domains and tasks.

[EX Q]: We propose a generic framework to calibrate accuracy and confidence (score) of a prediction through stochastic inferences in deep neural networks. We first analyze relation between variation of multiple model parameters for a single example inference and variance of the corresponding prediction scores by Bayesian modeling of stochastic regularization. Our empirical observation shows that accuracy and score of a prediction are highly correlated with variance of multiple stochastic inferences given by stochastic depth or dropout. Motivated by these facts, we design a novel variance-weighted confidence-integrated loss function that is composed of two cross-entropy loss terms with respect to ground-truth and uniform distribution, which are balanced by variance of stochastic prediction scores. The proposed loss function enables us to learn deep neural networks that predict confidence calibrated scores using a single inference. Our algorithm presents outstanding confidence calibration performance and improves classification accuracy with two popular stochastic regularization techniques---stochastic depth and dropout---in multiple models and datasets; it alleviates overconfidence issue in deep neural networks significantly by training networks to achieve prediction accuracy proportional to confidence of prediction.
[EX A]:
We propose a framework to learn confidence-calibrated networks by designing a novel loss function that incorporates predictive uncertainty estimated through stochastic inferences.