TASK DEFINITION: In this task, you are given a part of an article. Your task is to generate headline (title) for this text. Preferred headlines are under fifteen words.
PROBLEM: This paper presents a system which creates and visualizes probabilistic semantic links between concepts in a thesaurus and classes in a classification system. For creating the links, we build on the Polylingual Labeled Topic Model (PLL-TM) [6]. PLL-TM identifies probable thesaurus descriptors for each class in the classification system by using information from the natural language text of documents, their assigned thesaurus descriptors and their designated classes. The links are then presented to users of the system in an interactive visualization, providing them with an automatically generated overview of the relations between the thesaurus and the classification system. Lisa Posch GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences Cologne, Germany Institute for Web Science and Technologies University of Koblenz-Landau, Germany E-mail: lisa.posch@gesis.org Philipp Schaer GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences Cologne, Germany E-mail: philipp.schaer@gesis.org Arnim Bleier GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences Cologne, Germany E-mail: arnim.bleier@gesis.org Markus Strohmaier GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences Cologne, Germany Institute for Web Science and Technologies University of Koblenz-Landau, Germany E-mail: markus.strohmaier@gesis.org

SOLUTION: A System for Probabilistic Linking of Thesauri and Classification Systems

PROBLEM: This is a companion note to our recent study of the weak convergence properties of constrained emphatic temporal-difference learning (ETD) algorithms from a theoretic perspective. It supplements the latter analysis with simulation results and illustrates the behavior of some of the ETD algorithms using three example problems.

SOLUTION: Some Simulation Results for Emphatic Temporal-Difference Learning Algorithms∗

PROBLEM: Predicting the outcomes of future events is a challenging problem for which a variety of solution methods have been explored and attempted. We present an empirical comparison of a variety of online and offline adaptive algorithms for aggregating experts’ predictions of the outcomes of five years of US National Football League games (1319 games) using expert probability elicitations obtained from an Internet contest called ProbabilitySports. We find that it is difficult to improve over simple averaging of the predictions in terms of prediction accuracy, but that there is room for improvement in quadratic loss. Somewhat surprisingly, a Bayesian estimation algorithm which estimates the variance of each expert’s prediction exhibits the most consistent superior performance over simple averaging among our collection of algorithms.

SOLUTION:
An Empirical Comparison of Algorithms for Aggregating Expert Predictions