Given a travel related situation, and given a specific question about the situation, summarize the question into a title

My problem: I recently booked a business trip about three months out, noticing slightly too late that there's a huge event (Formula 1 race) happening in town the previous weekend and all the remotely convenient and/or comfortable hotels are asking crazy rates (US$500+).

The usual rule of thumb of booking flights and hotels is the earlier the better, since prices usually go up but rarely come down.  In this case, though, I have a sneaky suspicion that hotels may be demanding too much and there may be a fire sale of unsold inventory right before the event.

So: Do hotel prices generally go down right before big events? Bonus points for answers with data instead of just speculation.

(Note: this question has been edited, as I'm more interested in the general question above than the specifics of my situation.)

Interim answer 1: I've followed simbabque's answer and booked a mildly inconvenient and mildly crappy but fully cancellable and not crazy expensive hotel to cover my ass, and will check & report back on the hotel situation before arrival.

Interim answer 2: Idly poking around, I noticed that a big chain hotel near the office that had previously been 100% full had a room free for all three nights at our normal corporate rate (~US$120).  Booked!  But I'll still check before arrival and report back for science.

Very overdue final update: I didn't do a very thorough check because work, but a casual browse on Google Hotels did show a bunch of hotels offering rooms at less stratospheric prices (under $300). YMMV.

When should I book my hotel if prices are inflated due to a major event?

In Germany there is a brilliant service called packstation. I envy my German friends for this service where packages can be delivered which you can then collect at any time. Typically they are located at very public places (typically gas stations). In Germany you don't longer need to stay home to receive a package. 

I will be traveling through Germany soon, where it would help if I could use this service as well. Unfortunately the registration website requires recidency in Germany.

Is there really no way non-residents could use this service?

Can you register for a "packstation" in Germany if you are traveling through Germany?

I've been reading up on how to get my cell phone into Europe and I'm still not entirely sure what to do. I'd prefer to use my iPhone so that I can carry fewer electronics, but my provider will not unlock my phone until my contract expires and it's going to cost a few hundred US dollars to buy out the contract (Bah!). Additionally, newer iPhones seem to only carry smaller SIM cards.


What are my options?
If I am able to get my phone unlocked, are nano SIM cards commonly sold in Europe?


Note 1: I would only consider buying another phone if it ended up being drastically cheaper than taking my iPhone (though I would still need to bring my iPhone for camera purposes). 

Note 2: I'll be in Europe for a several months (in and out of Schengen area) including Western Europe and the more western countries of Eastern Europe.


What to do about my US iPhone while traveling around Europe?