In this task, you are given a part of an article. Your task is to generate headline (title) for this text. Preferred headlines are under fifteen words.

[EX Q]: Conditional probabilities are a core concept in machine learning. For ex-<lb>ample, optimal prediction of a label Y given an inputX corresponds to maximizing<lb>the conditional probability of Y given X . A common approach to inference tasks<lb>is learning a model of conditional probabilities. However, these models are often<lb>based on strong assumptions (e.g., log-linear models), and hence their estimate of<lb>conditional probabilities is not robust and is highly dependent on the validity of<lb>their assumptions.<lb>Here we propose a framework for reasoning about conditional probabilities without<lb>assuming anything about the underlying distributions, except knowledge of their<lb>second order marginals, which can be estimated from data. We show how this<lb>setting leads to guaranteed bounds on conditional probabilities, which can be calcu-<lb>lated efficiently in a variety of settings, including structured-prediction. Finally, we<lb>apply them to semi-supervised deep learning, obtaining results competitive with<lb>variational autoencoders.
[EX A]: Robust Conditional Probabilities

[EX Q]: The belief bias effect is a phenomenon which occurs when we think that we judge an argument based on our reasoning, but are actually influenced by our beliefs and prior knowledge. Evans, Barston and Pollard carried out a psychological syllogistic reasoning task to prove this effect. Participants were asked whether they would accept or reject a given syllogism. We discuss one specific case which is commonly assumed to be believable but which is actually not logically valid. By introducing abnormalities, abduction and background knowledge, we adequately model this case under the weak completion semantics. Our formalization reveals new questions about possible extensions in abductive reasoning. For instance, observations and their explanations might include some relevant prior abductive contextual information concerning some side-effect or leading to a contestable or refutable side-effect. A weaker notion indicates the support of some relevant consequences by a prior abductive context. Yet another definition describes jointly supported relevant consequences, which captures the idea of two observations containing mutually supportive side-effects. Though motivated with and exemplified by the running psychology application, the various new general abductive context definitions are introduced here and given a declarative semantics for the first time, and have a much wider scope of application. Inspection points, a concept introduced by Pereira and Pinto, allows us to express these definitions syntactically and intertwine them into an operational semantics.
[EX A]: Contextual Abductive Reasoning with Side-Effects

[EX Q]: Sample complexity and safety are major challenges when learning policies with reinforcement learning for real-world tasks, especially when the policies are represented using rich function approximators like deep neural networks. Model-based methods where the real-world target domain is approximated using a simulated source domain provide an avenue to tackle the above challenges by augmenting real data with simulated data. However, discrepancies between the simulated source domain and the target domain pose a challenge for simulated training. We introduce the EPOpt algorithm, which uses an ensemble of simulated source domains and a form of adversarial training to learn policies that are robust and generalize to a broad range of possible target domains, including unmodeled effects. Further, the probability distribution over source domains in the ensemble can be adapted using data from target domain and approximate Bayesian methods, to progressively make it a better approximation. Thus, learning on a model ensemble, along with source domain adaptation, provides the benefit of both robustness and learning/adaptation.
[EX A]:
EPOPT: LEARNING ROBUST NEURAL NETWORK POLICIES USING MODEL ENSEMBLES