In this task, you are given the abstract of a research paper. Your task is to generate a summary of this abstract. Your summary should not be very short, but it's better if it's not more than 30 words.

Q: Many processes can be concisely represented as a sequence of events leading from a starting state to an end state. Given raw ingredients, and a finished cake, an experienced chef can surmise the recipe. Building upon this intuition,  we propose a new class of visual generative models: goal-conditioned predictors (GCP). Prior work on video generation largely focuses on prediction models that only observe frames from the beginning of the video. GCP instead treats videos as start-goal transformations, making video generation easier by conditioning on the more informative context provided by the first and final frames.  Not only do existing forward prediction approaches synthesize better and longer videos when modified to become goal-conditioned,  but GCP models can also utilize structures that are not linear in time, to accomplish hierarchical prediction . To this end, we study both auto-regressive GCP models and novel tree-structured GCP models that generate frames recursively, splitting the video iteratively into finer and finer segments delineated by subgoals . In experiments across simulated and real datasets, our GCP methods generate high-quality sequences over long horizons .  Tree-structured GCPs are also substantially easier to parallelize than auto-regressive GCPs, making training  and  inference  very  efficient, and allowing the model to train on sequences that are thousands of frames in length.Finally, we demonstrate the utility of GCP approaches for imitation learning in the setting without access to expert actions . Videos are on the supplementary website: https://sites.google.com/view/video-gcp

A: We propose a new class of visual generative models: goal-conditioned predictors. We show experimentally that conditioning on the goal allows to reduce uncertainty and produce predictions over much longer horizons.
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Q: Deep ensembles have been empirically shown to be a promising approach for improving accuracy, uncertainty  and out-of-distribution robustness of deep learning models. While deep ensembles were theoretically motivated by the bootstrap, non-bootstrap ensembles trained with just random initialization also perform well in practice, which suggests that there could be other explanations for why deep ensembles work well. Bayesian neural networks, which learn distributions over the parameters of the network, are theoretically well-motivated by Bayesian principles, but do not perform as well as deep ensembles in practice, particularly under dataset shift. One possible explanation for this gap between theory and practice is that popular scalable approximate Bayesian methods tend to focus on a single mode, whereas deep ensembles tend to explore diverse modes in function space. We investigate this hypothesis by building on recent work on understanding the loss landscape of neural networks and adding our own exploration to measure the similarity of functions in the space of predictions. Our results show that random initializations explore entirely different modes, while functions along an optimization trajectory or sampled from the subspace thereof cluster within a single mode predictions-wise, while often deviating significantly in the weight space. We demonstrate that while low-loss connectors between modes exist, they are not connected in the space of predictions. Developing the concept of the diversity--accuracy plane, we show that the decorrelation power of random initializations is unmatched by popular subspace sampling methods.

A: We study deep ensembles through the lens of loss landscape and the space of predictions, demonstrating that the decorrelation power of random initializations is unmatched by subspace sampling that only explores a single mode.
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Q: We introduce two approaches for conducting efficient Bayesian inference in stochastic simulators containing nested stochastic sub-procedures, i.e., internal procedures for which the density cannot be calculated directly such as rejection sampling loops. The resulting class of simulators are used extensively throughout the sciences and can be interpreted as probabilistic generative models. However, drawing inferences from them poses a substantial challenge due to the inability to evaluate even their unnormalised density, preventing the use of many standard inference procedures like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). To address this, we introduce inference algorithms based on a two-step approach that first approximates the conditional densities of the individual sub-procedures, before using these approximations to run MCMC methods on the full program. Because the sub-procedures can be dealt with separately and are lower-dimensional than that of the overall problem, this two-step process allows them to be isolated and thus be tractably dealt with, without placing restrictions on the overall dimensionality of the problem. We demonstrate the utility of our approach on a simple, artificially constructed simulator.

A:
We introduce two approaches for efficient and scalable inference in stochastic simulators for which the density cannot be evaluated directly due to, for example, rejection sampling loops.
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