II 118th CONGRESS 2d Session S. 5047 IN THE SENATE OF THE UNITED STATES September 12, 2024 Mr. Whitehouse (for himself, Mr. Van Hollen , Mr. Welch , Mr. Padilla , Ms. Warren , Mr. Heinrich , Mr. Schatz , and Mr. Markey ) introduced the following bill; which was read twice and referred to the Committee on the Budget A BILL To require carbon scoring by the Congressional Budget Office.

1. Short title This Act may be cited as the Carbon Scoring Act of 2024 . 2. Findings Congress finds the following: (1) The function of the Congressional Budget Office is to provide the Committee on the Budget of the Senate and the Committee on the Budget of the House of Representatives with information on budget authority, outlays, revenues, and changing conditions that might impact the Federal budget and the legislative activities of Congress. (2) Unforeseen economic shocks, such as the 2008 mortgage crisis and the COVID–19 pandemic, have contributed greatly to the public debt of the Federal Government. (3) Climate change poses systemic risks to the financial system of the United States. (4) The increased severity and frequency of extreme weather events caused by climate change costs the United States economy an estimated $150,000,000,000 every year, and the cost is growing. (5) Predicted economic shocks from climate change could cost the economy of the United States $14,500,000,000,000 over the next 50 years, reduce the gross domestic product of the United States by 10 percent by the end of the century, and add trillions of dollars to the public debt of the Federal Government. (6) Current damages associated with climate change are straining the Federal budget and straining insurance and home mortgage markets from California to Florida. (7) The exacerbation of extreme weather, drought, and warming is undermining agricultural yields, the durability of infrastructure, and supply chain reliability, all of which contribute to rising consumer prices. (8) Policies that limit greenhouse gas emissions could offer long-term savings for the Federal budget. 3. Greenhouse gas emissions modeling capacity and reporting (a) In general Section 202 of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974 ( 2 U.S.C. 602 ) is amended by adding at the end the following: (h) Greenhouse gas emissions modeling (1) Definitions In this subsection: (A) Director The term Director means the Director of the Congressional Budget Office. (B) Greenhouse gas The term greenhouse gas has the meaning given that term in section 211(o)(1) of the Clean Air Act ( 42 U.S.C. 7545(o)(1) ). (2) Establishing an emissions modeling capacity (A) In general The Director shall prepare and maintain economic models that can provide estimates of the effect of various policies on greenhouse gas emissions— (i) for the power sector, by not later than 1 year after the date of enactment of the Carbon Scoring Act of 2024 ; (ii) for transportation, by not later than January 1, 2026; (iii) for industry, by not later than January 1, 2028; (iv) for buildings, by not later than January 1, 2030; and (v) for all other emitting sectors, as soon as is practicable. (B) Annual reports Not later than December 31, 2025, and December 31 of each year thereafter, the Director shall publish a report that— (i) provides an overview of the greenhouse gas emissions modeling capabilities of the Congressional Budget Office; (ii) discusses any updates made to models related to the greenhouse gas emissions estimating function of the Congressional Budget Office; and (iii) discusses how any updates made to models affect the emissions baseline required under paragraph (3). (C) Ongoing improvement The Director shall work to continually improve the accuracy and granularity of the economic models described in subparagraph (A). (D) Existing Federal resources In preparing economic models under this paragraph, the Director may, where applicable, consider using modeling resources developed by the Federal Government, such as the National Energy Modeling System published by the Energy Information Administration. (3) Emissions baseline Not later than February 15, 2025, and February 15 of each year thereafter, the Director shall develop and publish a detailed estimate of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States during the year during which the report is issued and each fiscal year thereafter through the last fiscal year covered by the most recent baseline prepared in accordance with section 257, based on laws enacted through the date of the report and taking into account projected economic factors. (4) Prioritization of greenhouse gasses For purposes of economic models, emissions baselines, and greenhouse gas emissions estimates under paragraphs (2) and (3) of this subsection and section 402A, the Director— (A) shall make best efforts to consider all greenhouse gas emissions for any economic model, emissions baseline, or greenhouse gas emissions estimate prepared on or after the date of enactment of the Carbon Scoring Act of 2024 ; and (B) shall consider— (i) carbon dioxide for any economic model, emissions baseline, or greenhouse gas emissions estimate prepared on or after the date of enactment of the Carbon Scoring Act of 2024 ; (ii) methane for any economic model, emissions baseline, or greenhouse gas emissions estimate prepared on or after January 1, 2027; and (iii) all greenhouse gas emissions for any economic model, emissions baseline, or greenhouse gas emissions estimate prepared on or after January 1, 2030. . (b) Emissions estimates by Congressional Budget Office (1) In general Title IV of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974 ( 2 U.S.C. 651 et seq. ) is amended by inserting after section 402 the following: 402A. Emissions estimates by Congressional Budget Office (a) Definitions In this section: (1) Director The term Director means the Director of the Congressional Budget Office. (2) Emissions baseline The term emissions baseline means an estimate of greenhouse gas emissions prepared under section 202(h)(3). (3) Greenhouse gas The term greenhouse gas has the meaning given that term in section 211(o)(1) of the Clean Air Act ( 42 U.S.C. 7545(o)(1) ). (4) Greenhouse gas-related provision The term greenhouse gas-related provision means a provision that meets any of the following conditions: (A) Creates, raises, or lowers a tax or tax credit on any aspect of fuel production or usage, power production or usage, the emission or capture of a greenhouse gas, or a technology or a direct alternative to a technology that uses fuel. (B) Otherwise assigns a dollar value to the emission of a greenhouse gas or to the sale or use of a product whose combustion or leakage leads to an emission of a greenhouse gas. (C) Sets a performance standard or cap based on— (i) the emission of a greenhouse gas; or (ii) the use of a product— (I) that directly emits greenhouse gases; or (II) whose combustion, leakage, or degradation leads to an emission of a greenhouse gas. (5) Relevant committees The term relevant committees means the Committee on the Budget of the Senate, the Committee on the Budget of the House of Representatives, the committee of the Senate with jurisdiction of the relevant bill or joint resolution, and the committee of the House of Representatives with primary jurisdiction of the relevant bill or joint resolution. (6) Significant budgetary effect The term significant budgetary effect , with respect to a bill or joint resolution, means that the Director estimates the bill or joint resolution will increase or decrease annual outlays or revenues by not less than $500,000,000 in any fiscal year covered by the most recent baseline under section 257. (7) Social cost of a greenhouse gas The term social cost of a greenhouse gas means the monetary value of the net harm to society from emitting a metric ton of a greenhouse gas into the atmosphere in a given year, as determined by the Director based on the best and most recent science that, for carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, is not less than the amounts listed for those gases using a near-term Ramsey discount rate of 2 percent in the report of the Environmental Protection Agency entitled Report on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases: Estimates Incorporating Recent Scientific Advances , dated November 2023. (b) Estimates (1) In general To the extent practicable, the Director shall prepare and submit to the relevant committees a greenhouse gas emissions estimate with respect to any bill or joint resolution ordered reported by a committee of the Senate or the House of Representatives— (A) that— (i) would have a significant budgetary effect; and (ii) contains 1 or more greenhouse gas-related provisions; or (B) for which the Director previously estimated the effects of the greenhouse gas-related provisions of the bill or joint resolution. (2) Contents A greenhouse gas emissions estimate under paragraph (1) with respect to a bill or joint resolution shall— (A) provide an estimate of the effects of each greenhouse gas-related provision in the bill or joint resolution on greenhouse gas emissions with respect to the year during which the greenhouse gas-related provision takes effect and each fiscal year covered by the most recent emissions baseline, including an estimate of the change in greenhouse gas emissions relative to the most recent emissions baseline; (B) provide an estimate of the climate-related costs or savings of each greenhouse gas-related provision in the bill or joint resolution, which shall be calculated as the sum of the products obtained by multiplying the change in the emission of each greenhouse gas relative to the most recent emissions baseline, as described in subparagraph (A), by the social cost of the greenhouse gas during the year of the change; (C) include commentary on the expected effects of the greenhouse gas-related provisions on greenhouse gas emissions after the end of the period described in subparagraph (A); and (D) include commentary, to the extent practicable, on the effects of the greenhouse gas-related provisions on global greenhouse gas emissions. (3) Inclusion in report If the Director timely submits to a committee of the Senate or the House of Representatives estimates and commentary under this subsection with respect to a bill or joint resolution containing 1 or more greenhouse gas-related provisions, the committee shall include the estimates and commentary in the report accompanying the bill or joint resolution, if the committee submits such a report. (4) Estimates regarding other legislative provisions To the extent practicable, upon a request by the Chairman of the Committee on the Budget of the Senate or the Committee on the Budget of the House of Representatives, the Director shall publish a greenhouse gas emissions estimate in accordance with this subsection with respect to any legislative provision. (5) Estimates while developing models If the Director determines that a reported bill or joint resolution for which a report is required under paragraph (1) contains 1 or more greenhouse gas-related provisions that primarily affect the greenhouse gas emissions of a sector for which the Director has not yet developed an economic model under section 202(h)(2), the Director shall— (A) omit those greenhouse gas-related provisions from the greenhouse gas emissions estimate of the Director; (B) indicate in the greenhouse gas emissions estimate that the Director made that determination; and (C) include in the greenhouse gas emissions estimate the reasons for that determination. (c) Mandatory appropriation In addition to amounts otherwise made available to the Director, there are appropriated for each of fiscal years 2025 through 2034 to the Director, out of any money in the Treasury not otherwise appropriated, $20,000,000 to carry out this section and section 202(h). Amounts appropriated under this subsection shall remain available until expended. . (2) Conforming amendment The table of contents in section 1(b) of the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 is amended by inserting after the item relating to section 402 the following: Sec. 402A. Emissions estimates by Congressional Budget Office. .