I 118th CONGRESS 1st Session H. R. 3966 IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES June 9, 2023 Mr. Mike Garcia of California (for himself and Mr. Obernolte ) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology A BILL To accelerate subseasonal to seasonal prediction skills related to precipitation forecasts for water management in the western United States, improve atmospheric river forecasts across the country, and for other purposes.

1. Short title This Act may be cited as the Improving Atmospheric River Forecasts Act . 2. Subseasonal to seasonal forecasting pilot projects (a) Improving subseasonal and seasonal forecasts Subsection (h) of section 1762 of the Food Security Act of 1985 ( 15 U.S.C. 8521 ) is amended to read as follows: (h) Subseasonal to seasonal forecasting pilot projects (1) Establishment The Under Secretary shall establish at least one pilot project within the U.S. Weather Research Program of the Oceanic and Atmospheric Research office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to support improved subseasonal to seasonal precipitation forecasts for water management in the western United States. (2) Objectives In carrying out this subsection, the Under Secretary shall ensure that a pilot project under paragraph (1) addresses key science challenges to improving forecasts and developing related products described in subsection (c) for water management in the western United States, including the following: (A) Improving model resolution, both horizontal and vertical, to resolve issues associated with mountainous terrain, such as intensity of precipitation and relative fraction of rain versus snow precipitation. (B) Improving fidelity in modeling of— (i) the atmospheric boundary layer in mountainous regions; and (ii) atmospheric rivers. (C) Resolving challenges in predicting winter atmospheric circulation and storm tracks, including periods of blocked versus unblocked flow over the eastern North Pacific Ocean and western United States. (D) Advancing scientific understanding of the roles of atmospheric rivers in subseasonal to seasonal precipitation, and developing tools to predict periods of active or inactive atmospheric river landfalls and inland penetration over the western United States. (3) Activities A pilot project under this subsection shall include activities that carry out the following: (A) Best implement recommendations of the National Weather Service’s 2019 Report, entitled Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasting Innovation: Plans for the Twenty-First Century . (B) Achieve measurable objectives for operational forecast improvement. (C) Engage with, and leverage the resources of, institutions of higher education (as such term is defined in section 101 of the Higher Education Act of 1965 ( 20 U.S.C. 1001 )) with experience in western precipitation science, as well as entities within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in existence as of the date of the enactment of this subsection, including the Western Regional Climate Center and the National Centers for Environmental Information. (D) Are carried out in coordination with the Assistant Administrator for the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and the Director of the National Weather Service. (4) Authorization of appropriations From amounts made available to Operations, Research, and Facilities at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is authorized to be appropriated $15,000,000 for each of fiscal years 2024 through 2028 to carry out this subsection. (5) Sunset The authority under this subsection shall terminate on the date that is five years after the date of the enactment of this subsection. 3. Atmospheric rivers forecast improvement program (a) In general The Under Secretary, in collaboration with the United States weather industry and academic partners, shall establish an atmospheric river forecast improvement program (in this section referred to as the program ). (b) Goal The goal of the program shall be to reduce through the development and extension of accurate, effective, and actionable forecasts and warnings the loss of life and economic losses from atmospheric rivers, including by— (1) establishing quantitative atmospheric river forecast skill metrics; and (2) developing methods to categorize the intensity of atmospheric rivers. (c) Innovative observations and modeling The Under Secretary shall ensure the program periodically examines, tests, and evaluates the value of incorporating innovative observations, such as observations from crewed or uncrewed aircraft, novel airborne and satellite-based snowpack measurements, ocean buoys data, soil moisture monitoring systems, reservoir storage data, observations from mesonets, or other emerging technologies, with respect to the improvement of atmospheric river forecasts, predictions, and warnings. (d) Program plan Not later than 180 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Assistant Administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, in coordination with the Director of the National Weather Service, shall develop a plan that details the specific research, development, data acquisition, and technology transfer activities, as well as corresponding resources and timelines, necessary to achieve the goals of the program under subsection (b). (e) Annual budget for plan submittal After the development of the plan pursuant to subsection (d), the Under Secretary, acting through the Assistant Administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, and in coordination with the Director of the National Weather Service, shall, not less frequently than annually, submit to Congress a proposed budget corresponding with the activities identified in such plan. (f) Definitions In this section, the terms Under Secretary and weather industry have the meanings given such terms in section 2 of the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 ( 15 U.S.C. 8501 ).