Half man half announcement -  Musk announces Tesla Bot - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: BBBbbb
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: August 20, 2021, 06:22:52 am
content: https://electrek.co/2021/08/19/tesla-bot-humanoid-robot/The idea itself is not dodgy, but considering his track record and the fact that the announcement looks like a child's wishful thinking really makes me doubt this one is plausible. (oh yeah and how complicated it is to do it, especially from scratch)I'm actually thinking that he announced it just to distract from the latest fails that are now reaching the public through the media - hyperloop and solar roofs...

author: Haenk
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 20, 2021, 08:04:47 am
content: It's made from 100% hot air.Considering how far away Amazons Alexa and Boston Dynamics/Hyundai are from his powerful PowerPoint slides, it's nothing more than wishful thinking - both having years/decades of technology research into AI and robotics.

author: BBBbbb
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: August 20, 2021, 08:26:25 am
content: Quote from: Haenk on August 20, 2021, 08:04:47 ambut but he has dancers:https://youtu.be/HUP6Z5voiS8?t=56Take that Boston's parkour-ing robots

author: Cyberdragon
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 21, 2021, 08:27:31 pm
content: Quote from: BBBbbb on August 20, 2021, 08:26:25 amAh...so a scaled up version of a kid's dancing robot. Would make a nice present for stupidly rich kids...

author: fcb
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 21, 2021, 08:46:15 pm
content: I watched the whole presentation - and understood about 10% of it (if that). Looks like he's taking his physics, ground up approach with AI - pretty successful so far.My guess is that "Optimus" is not for this planet, but for Mars and the Moon.Also, I'm wondering why they didn't buy Boston Dynamics, perhaps the rate of iteration is too slow??

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: August 21, 2021, 09:06:45 pm
content: Quote from: Haenk on August 20, 2021, 08:04:47 amTesla cars are robots on wheels, they have in-house AI chips for driving and now also for AI learning.

author: Microdoser
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: August 21, 2021, 11:41:16 pm
content: Quote from: BBBbbb on August 20, 2021, 08:26:25 amYeah, right. Anyone who doesn't think that is just a guy in a suit has never seen a guy in a suit...

author: Bud
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 21, 2021, 11:56:44 pm
content: Tesla bot... = bot controlled by Tesla.Another invasion channel into people' s privacy.It won't move its finger without connection to the mothership. And if you are a non- co pliant citizen or missed your monthly subscription fee you will have to lift your grocceries yourself, once the bot is turned off remotely.

author: Bud
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 22, 2021, 12:04:32 am
content: "Automata" movie from 2014 with Antonio Banderas, about relationships of humans with humanoid robots, available on youtube.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 22, 2021, 12:24:08 am
content: I'm sure they'll manage to make a few prototypes that can walk around and do a few very carefully programmed tasks but it's not going to be a useful general purpose device, not by a long shot, not for decades at least. For all the hype there is about "AI" the vast majority of "AI" I've seen is a joke. As soon as you stray the slightest bit off the beaten path it falls flat on its face.

author: fcb
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 22, 2021, 07:58:35 am
content: Musk stated that AI day was about recruiting engineers to work on AI.The humanoid robot allows them to continually expand and retain staff, long after the full-self-driving is ‘solved’ - very attractive problems to spend you’re life working on.Likely that Tesla will be known as an AI company in the deep future.

author: Kjelt
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 22, 2021, 08:05:29 am
content: QuoteWhat I could need is a powered exosceleton enabling me to lift 200 kg plates, that I would like.

author: AVGresponding
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 22, 2021, 01:34:54 pm
content: Quote from: fcb on August 22, 2021, 07:58:35 amSomething they are still nowhere near to achieving, despite the hype.More likely they'll be exposed for the stoner-led hype-factory that they are, and before anyone jumps in with "oh but they are the most valuable car company in the world", I'd caution you to research what investment bubbles look like.

author: fcb
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 22, 2021, 02:08:30 pm
content: Quote from: AVGresponding on August 22, 2021, 01:34:54 pmDo you think FSD will NOT happen? Ever? When do you think it will be solved? Or are you imagining the bulk of people still actually driving cars in say 50 years??

author: bd139
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 22, 2021, 02:19:24 pm
content: Tesla Bot will be expensive and entirely be useless and the only notable feature is it will have a mode that makes it fart.As for self driving I’m with AVGresponding here. It is not going to happen. The world is too difficult to reason about for humans doing this and they have a better sensor system and AI than Tesla will ever achieve.Technology only works well in fully constrained scenarios and driving is not one of them. You have to start moving society to a planned and constrained model for this to ever work. And if you’re ever going to do that it’s a better investment to solve higher level problems than driving which is mostly a consequence of poor distribution of work and supply.A good example of a fully constrained system is the Heathrow rapid transit system or DLR. Build that on a country wide scale and throw the whole driving thing out of the window.

author: bd139
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 22, 2021, 02:20:53 pm
content: Quote from: Kjelt on August 22, 2021, 08:05:29 amOnly if you can fight aliens with it.

author: madires
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 22, 2021, 02:51:23 pm
content: The bot which will be as autonomous as the car's "Autopilot" which is just a level 2 assistant system. So you need to be prepared that the bot will hit the wall sooner or later.

author: BBBbbb
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: August 22, 2021, 03:28:36 pm
content: I do expect FSD to happen in the next 20 years, probably in the next 5 years there will be some level of automation limited to highways.I just don't expect it to come from Tesla. Others seem to be taking a much more serious approach.Quote from: bd139 on August 22, 2021, 02:19:24 pmWell that's the thing, don't expect only cars to advance in order to have FSD, infrastructure needs evolution as well.Look how it was when cars were just starting - pedestrians and cars sharing the street, no split, signalization, slow movement... infrastructure evolved...

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: August 22, 2021, 04:13:03 pm
content: Quote from: BBBbbb on August 22, 2021, 03:28:36 pmSerious like "technically level 3" from Mercedes ongeofencedhighway with a 60 km/h (37 mph) speed limit?Isn't in-house development their own AI ASICs for driving and training not serious enough?

author: fcb
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 22, 2021, 05:07:26 pm
content: Quote from: madires on August 22, 2021, 02:51:23 pmArguably the version of Tesla FSD that's on limited release now is Level 4 under majority of driving miles.The stuff on path planning and analysing/predicting what everyone else is going to do was mind-blowing. Did anyone actually watch the whole presentation???

author: BBBbbb
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: August 22, 2021, 09:56:33 pm
content: Quote from: wraper on August 22, 2021, 04:13:03 pmSerious like not ditching radars, so you don't have to solve some issues with it, at the expense of added safety. Radars are useful even in non-autonomous cars.Serious like not using customers as QA. I would have expected the issue of Teslas crashing into emergency vehicles to have been caught in testing. or ensuring your driver can not use a simple trick to sleep behind the wheel.Take a deeper look at what how Waymo has progressed. I am also quite interested in what Honda's lvl3 looks like outside of Japan, as they are far from Tesla's approach of overpromising and underdelivering.The thing with the German OEMs, if one of them advances, others will follow, as they are intertwined quite a lot through their suppliers.Regarding the AI ASIC inhouse development - so what? the point is in having (not promising) a quality product. Musk is huge on vertical integration, something automotive industry has evolved away from, spinning off their parts into tier 1 suppliers in order to increase efficiency. Not sure such high level of vertical integration Tesla is aiming for is a good thing. What guaranties success of what NVIDIA will offer? or many other AI ASIC startups popping all over for the past several years?

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 23, 2021, 05:20:22 am
content: Quote from: fcb on August 22, 2021, 02:08:30 pmI don't think it will happen ever with the current hardware, a handful of cheap video cameras is a woefully inadequate sensor array for anything more than advanced driver assistance under near ideal conditions. I think it's virtually certain that the majority of people will be manually driving cars in 50 years, that is not really that far away and we are AT LEAST a decade or two from a viable self driving car that does not need a human driver to be ready to take over. A major problem with that is it is fundamentally flawed to expect a human driver to be ready to take over. There are few things more boring than supervising a machine that almost never needs you do do anything and it is a proven fact that the mind finds other things to focus on. Unless someone can fundamentally modify human psychology that is an insurmountable fault in the idea. Tesla has gotten about 70% there but what they don't seem to acknowledge is that each of the next 10% increments is about an order of magnitude more difficult than the last.Personally I really don't see the appeal of owning a self driving car, the whole point of owning a car is that I get to drive it myself. I already have access to a self driving car when I don't feel like driving, it's called a "bus" and I don't have to find a place to park it, deal with payments, licensing fees, insurance, maintenance or anything else. I just hop on board, scan my pass and it takes me where I want to go. If I want something a little more personal there are rideshare and taxi services. I wish Tesla would focus on the powertrain and battery development because they're already off to a great start there. I've driven a Tesla a handful of times and it was fantastic, I really enjoyed the silky smooth and absolutely insanely powerful drivetrain, I really liked being able to charge it up with 300 miles for about $10 worth of electricity, it was great fun to drive. I absolutely hated the touchscreen interface in lieu of almost all physical controls though, that's a deal breaker for me and I wouldn't buy one for that reason alone. The self driving stuff is just a waste of time, it's a gimmick that I don't need or want, especially in a car that is such fantastic fun to drive yourself. If you're going to have self driving it may as well be a Prius, a reliable and efficient but incredibly boring transportation appliance.

author: mnementh
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 23, 2021, 02:34:38 pm
content: Quote from: bd139 on August 22, 2021, 02:20:53 pmHeinlein thought of this already; and as he predicted, we now have people-controlled "Waldoes" doing all sorts of remote presence and force multiplication tasks. Disney developed tech based on the idea for its Animatronics products, and even modern medicine has benefited from the idea.I guess my question for Musk is the same one we should all have:Is it 3 Laws Safe...?mnem

author: bd139
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 23, 2021, 02:38:21 pm
content: Monty Python already discussed that particular facet of this topic in immaculate scientific detail

author: mnementh
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 23, 2021, 03:26:13 pm
content: I suspect this scenario will be much closer to actual reality than any of us want to admit.For both SDC and domestic robotics.mnemFor a lot longer than any of us dare hope...

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: August 23, 2021, 04:34:42 pm
content: Quote from: james_s on August 23, 2021, 05:20:22 amTesla uses HDR cameras, so they are not that cheap or poor. And it works during poor weather conditions unlike existing cars with LIDAR.https://support.google.com/waymo/answer/9858369?hl=en

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 23, 2021, 05:29:18 pm
content: Quote from: wraper on August 23, 2021, 04:34:42 pmI drove my dad's Tesla around for about a week so I have some direct experience here. The cameras are nothing spectacular, they are essentially the same as the webcams built into a lot of laptops these days, quite good all things considered but they are still not anything exciting. They are vulnerable to dirt and debris, a passing vehicle that splashes up mud could easily cover one or more cameras. A viable system needs cameras and other types of sensors all operating together in order to be safe. I don't know how the Tesla system can ever be expected to operate in snow and even the breeze October days where the deciduous trees are shedding leaves all over the road could be a problem, or the days after a snow storm where the roads have been heavily sanded and the markings are obscured by sand.

author: bd139
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 23, 2021, 05:44:43 pm
content: Yep they’re pretty crap. Also If you watch the dash on a model S you’ll see how shit the cameras and recognition system is. It constantly mischaracterises objects around the car.

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: August 23, 2021, 05:53:53 pm
content: Quote from: james_s on August 23, 2021, 05:29:18 pmNot even close. Laptop cameras don't work in poor lighting. Nor they would work during the day due to poor dynamic range.QuoteFSD beta from last year, current version is much better

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 23, 2021, 06:00:52 pm
content: Quote from: wraper on August 23, 2021, 05:53:53 pmMine works quite well, and it would work much better with the IR filter removed. Maybe a better comparison would be my security cameras, they are excellent as far as cheap cameras go and work in complete darkness with the aid of built in IR illumination as well as full summer sunlight, but they are still nothing compared to a human eye.As I said, I've driven a Tesla (2020 Model Y), I put a couple hundred miles on it and played with the gadgets, I have direct experience sitting in the driver's seat and driving in real world conditions, I'm not just speculating based on youtube videos. Have you driven one?

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: August 23, 2021, 06:09:42 pm
content: Quote from: james_s on August 23, 2021, 06:00:52 pmBut I bet you hadn't driven with FSD beta, which is a completely different beast compared to regular autopilot. You are speculating based on driving a few hundred miles in a car without a technology enabled, and ignore anything else.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 23, 2021, 06:19:12 pm
content: Quote from: wraper on August 23, 2021, 06:09:42 pmThe car I drove had the "enhanced autopilot" feature which I believe is what you're referring to. It is capable of driving itself, and in my brief experience it does work quite well, but that was not nearly enough time to properly evaluate it. I didn't try driving it in snow and frankly I'd be afraid to. I didn't try driving it on a road that is flooded with an inch of water or covered in leaves or sand, I didn't try any edge cases. My whole point was regarding the quality of the cameras, they are not anything special, although even the most amazing cameras in the world are not going to be very useful if what they're trying to see is obscured. A viable system must have radar, lidar or some other technology in addition to cameras, cameras alone are not enough for a system that does not require a human driver to be ready to take over.

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: August 23, 2021, 06:20:33 pm
content: Quote from: james_s on August 23, 2021, 06:19:12 pmIt's not.

author: fcb
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2021, 10:11:27 am
content: I would encourage anyone to watch the whole Tesla AI day event, including the Q&A at the end. It starts at 47min. Also there is cheezy dancing.Really good detailed explanation of how FSD works including the problems.

author: Cyberdragon
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 26, 2021, 06:14:07 am
content: "problems"https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-fsd-full-self-driving-traffic-light-fooled-moon-video-2021-7

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: August 26, 2021, 07:02:34 am
content: Quote from: Cyberdragon on August 26, 2021, 06:14:07 amTrash article since it's not FSD but usual autopilot. They are either clueless or malicious.

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: August 26, 2021, 07:28:01 am
content: According to Elon, public FSD beta will be released in about a month.

author: jonovid
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 26, 2021, 07:38:36 am
content: when science fiction becomes science fact we have trouble