MLCC prices to rise 40-50% in 2Q18 Dave? whats your view on this. - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: diyaudio
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 01, 2018, 03:59:44 pm
content: Started assembling a project was I shocked on the price of MLCC cost wow!Hopefully I'm not the only one who's shocked by the price of capacitors lately.https://passive-components.eu/mlcc-prices-to-rise-40-50-in-2q18/

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 01, 2018, 05:05:46 pm
content: How it was explained to me by someone who is close to a large MLCC supplier starting with "Mur"...MLCCs are commodity items. The profit on each capacitor when sold at £0.0005 each is so miniscule that it is not worth bringing more lines online as the return on investment is just not there, they would rather focus on more profitable areas of business. And there is massive demand for MLCCs due to the rise of IoT and increased use in smartphones and laptops (many are moving away from tantalum caps). So unless China picks up business where the Japanese are not prepared to invest, there is going to be a long-term shortage, which will result in increasing lead times and increasing prices.I would suggest that MLCC pricing is inelastic for many manufacturers. An increase in prices 10x will make little difference to their demand, but long lead times will.

author: piguy101
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: September 02, 2018, 05:11:00 pm
content: I picked out a list of components from a BOM to to buy from Digikey about a week ago. I went to place the order this week and already 4 of the MLCC parts were out of stock with never ending lead times. I had to find other manufacturers at somewhat higher prices, and it sure does not give me a good feeling.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 02, 2018, 05:39:07 pm
content: Dangerous gamble to play as a manufacturer without some kind of OPEC style cartel. Now is the best time to expand capacity, with the ridiculous lead times getting long term contracts with minimum delivery numbers with big electronics manufacturers will become much easier.Of course if the lead times collapse before you're ready to churn them out you're screwed, but you'd think the capacitor manufacturers should have seen this coming for a while.

author: kayvee
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: September 02, 2018, 05:46:28 pm
content: It's been like this for months already. Seen increases way above that already, but then it probably the local disties that are climbing on the bandwagon too.

author: filssavi
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 02, 2018, 06:35:51 pm
content: For universities the situation is even worse, the order process is long and by the times the people’s in the purchase department get to it the selected capacitors are out of stock, also since the manufactured boards are little more than prototypes and one offs buying full reel to keep in stock is difficult to justify

author: rx8pilot
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 02, 2018, 07:03:07 pm
content: This situation is very difficult for my small business. I cannot commit to high volumes so the big buyers are hoarding all the stock that I need. Many sizes/values that I use are not available at any price. The ones that are left have jumped from $.50 to $7/each.I have a design that has 15x caps that jump from $.50 to $7/each (and the availability is dubious) This is a $98 increase on a BOM that was previously only about $75. I was forced to change the design to polymer caps, which increased the physical size, which forced an enclosure to change, which created scrap out of all the enclosures and bare PCB's I already had on the shelf.1210 22uf/35v X7R are now very rare it appears. Not long ago, they were stocked at DigiKey in 100's of thousands. They are not even listed anymore. The 10uf version has (2) TWO in stock but in X5R at $2.38/qty1 and going down to $1/qty 1000. ETA for more stock is 10 weeks, but that is an unreliable estimate.In the end.....I am busted on all my designs that are dependent on the larger MLCC's (DC/DC converters and other power electronics). Between the prices and the lead times - it is no longer feasible unless I totally change the design approach to eliminate big MLCC's.

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 02, 2018, 08:22:42 pm
content: I found it interesting while Googling about the MLCC shortage that there was a similar issue back in '99:https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1120963The market recovers, eventually. In the meantime, avoid high CV values. 22uF 35V in 1210 is at the high end of the CV curve. If you can get 10uF 25V or 35V to work in your application, you may have better luck. The shortage is strongest in the area of high CV because there are only a few manufacturers of capacitors with such high energy density.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 02, 2018, 10:56:23 pm
content: Quote from: tom66 on September 02, 2018, 08:22:42 pmTell me about it. I just ordered parts for a (one-off) project with an expensive aluminium case. A few MLCC capacitors ended up costing more than the case

author: T3sl4co1l
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 02, 2018, 11:01:34 pm
content: Quote from: tom66 on September 02, 2018, 08:22:42 pmWait, wait, wait.They were having apanicback in '99, and lead times only went up to 14 weeks?It's unusual that I even see a supplier (of anything) claiming 14 weeks or less, over the last five years.Also, the MLCC manufacturers could've learned from their own history, but I suppose '99 is literally a generation ago, history more than distant enough to repeat.Tim

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 02:57:52 am
content: My view?40-50% increase in price on components that costs peanuts already,On a typical design, even if you doubled the price of the caps, it would be insignificant on the BOM cost.Availability is the problem.

author: rx8pilot
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 04:08:00 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on September 03, 2018, 02:57:52 amSome of them are 100's of % more if they have not yet been totally discontinued.Like I said earlier - it is enough to have completely invalidated some of what I was making. Punch in the gut.

author: station240
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 04:08:24 am
content: Quote from: tom66 on September 02, 2018, 08:22:42 pmActually it's worse than that, the shortage also extends to the raw ceramic dielectric materials. Physically larger capacitors, means more raw material used.Hence why larger CV values are in short supply, and why it is recommended to switch to smaller devices, 0603 instead of 0805 for instance.@rx8pilot50 cents to $7 is 1300% increase

author: BravoV
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 04:14:27 am
content: Time to buy capacitor manufacturers stock ?... duck & run ....

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 05:01:12 am
content: You can bet your bottom dollar Apple aren't effected, so all is right with the world

author: xaxaxa
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 05:33:51 am
content: Quote from: rx8pilot on September 02, 2018, 07:03:07 pm1210 22uF 35V X7R seems to be still available from aliexpress for normal prices; probably risky but if you do extensive testing they might be an option.Personally I stay away from caps with too high energy density because the capacitance turns to shit with applied bias; for 1210 35V the highest acceptable is 10uF, maybe even 4.7uF.

author: rx8pilot
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 05:50:51 am
content: Its not bad at 12v though and when you need to have a very small finished product, the choices are limited.I feel like a supply chain that relies on Ali Express is too risky. I don't really have the time, equipment, or the skills to properly determine the quality of MLCC's. Even though I don't have any strict compliance regulations that I have to adhere to, I will be severely punished by my customers if I have any major manufacturing flaws.Perhaps it's best to design my way around the supply limitations as best I can so I can stick with a certified supply chain.Short and misplld from my mobile......

author: donotdespisethesnake
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 05:55:51 am
content: Quote from: T3sl4co1l on September 02, 2018, 11:01:34 pmMLCC manufacturers aren't obliged to satisfy the market for cheap capacitors. It is the customers who should learn the lesson.

author: D3f1ant
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 11:05:27 am
content: I am in same boat as rx8, could have copied and pasted his post. We became very reliant on high value mlcc caps with relatively small footprints. One I was able to redesign with polymers and still fit in the existing custom enclosure but the other is dead on the water...Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk

author: T3sl4co1l
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 12:04:47 pm
content: Quote from: donotdespisethesnake on September 03, 2018, 05:55:51 amwatIt is the manufacturer and their direct customers who agree to the supply contract at whatever pricing scheme they do. The end customers mostly don't care where the product comes from, they just want the cheaper part.Also, yes, they are. Their shareholders would be very disappointed, and their management or directors very fired, if they didn't oblige to supply the market. Maybe not that market specifically, they could diversify as a company (which a lot of these in question do, Murata in particular), but a market, certainly.Tim

author: rx8pilot
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 06:35:40 pm
content: Quote from: donotdespisethesnake on September 03, 2018, 05:55:51 amI don't blame the manufacturers for running away from low margin or low volume business. I would do the same. My very first product when I started my current business was a good example. After it was all said and done, the distribution chain was more expensive than I had planned for and the margins shrunk to rotten levels. The distributor gave me a PO for 1500 units ( I had only planned to sell 100pcs/mo) which was a big number. After some analysis, I decided to try. I confirmed the margins stunk after months of sleepless nights and weekends. Not worth it. I told the distributor that the margins are not there and this is not looking good. They responded with another PO for 3,000 units. If 1500 was crap, 3000 was at least quadruple the crap since I would now have to buy another CNC machine, rent more space, hire help, etc.I had to walk away. Unless the price went up considerably (which was not going to happen) - PO's of any qty would never make sense.

author: teus
author_rank: Contributor
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 06:41:16 pm
content: I also noticed shortage of MLCC parts. A bit back, big shortage in high voltage high capacity parts.

author: floobydust
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 07:16:27 pm
content: Capacitor Market Update and Review: June 2018presents some useful data.I think it is panic buying and commodity speculators getting in there, driving the price up.75 Months of Lead Time Data for 29 Types of Capacitorsa fuzzy graph unless you pay but it still shows the trend.Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. Monthly Market Research Report On Passive Electronic Components Archive Datasecond graph Figure 1.2 Lead-Times For MLCC: March 2013 to June 2018, lead time weeks Y axis

author: donotdespisethesnake
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 07:48:57 pm
content: Quote from: T3sl4co1l on September 03, 2018, 12:04:47 pmJesus, what a load of

author: Bud
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 07:57:10 pm
content: How come the margins made sense for decades and all of a sudden it did not anymore.

author: mikeselectricstuff
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 08:00:09 pm
content: Quote from: Bud on September 03, 2018, 07:57:10 pmBecause newer markets have better margins - you can make a lot more 0201s from the same amount of material it takes to make a 1206.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 08:42:02 pm
content: I'm pretty sure they can't sell the 0201's for a couple bucks though.

author: Bud
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 08:49:24 pm
content: If Rockefellers figure out that MLCC can be more valuable than gold, then that is what will happen.

author: rx8pilot
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 03, 2018, 09:11:56 pm
content: Quote from: floobydust on September 03, 2018, 07:16:27 pmYes - I believe that as well. Lack of capacitors can stop a business in its tracks. I am proof.I have been buying the high-risk parts because I may need them sometime in the next year. I don't have the financials or outlook to do much. The companies like Apple can compel a capacitor company directly with cash. I suspect electric car electronics are more of a problem as they need a LOT of the larger HV high-density caps.I cannot compete with Tesla or GM in any way. If they need the stock, they will get it.

author: mrf184
author_rank: Contributor
timestamp: September 04, 2018, 04:19:52 am
content: Quote from: rx8pilot on September 03, 2018, 06:35:40 pmYou could have tried pushing down your costs

author: rx8pilot
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 04, 2018, 04:26:49 am
content: Quote from: mrf184 on September 04, 2018, 04:19:52 amThat is why I took the first PO. It took a couple of months to complete. I designed and implemented some advanced fixtures, automation, and assembly organization. After all that - still pretty far off. My only option was to directly sell them and cutout distribution. On paper that could have worked pretty well - but I was not configured to do it. At the time I was worn out and gave up. Moved on.As time has marched on.....I only sell direct. No dealers, no distributors.