Damn the Tariffs ! - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: EE-digger
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 24, 2025, 10:33:39 pm
content: I was just about to buy a nice Keysight 3000T scope from an ebay seller in Canada.To make a long story short, that scope now gets hit with a 10% AND another 24% because it was manufactured in Malaysia.This is insane and I feel sorry for those whose livelihood depends on sales to the US.

author: TomKatt
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 24, 2025, 10:48:18 pm
content: This thread will no doubt end up getting locked as political discussions never seem to end well when you don't have to directly face people you are speaking to... Though I'd havezeroproblems telling Trump and Musk to their faces that they are complete idiots. And I've likewise told people that support them that they are even more ignorant for voting for them knowing that this was the plan all along (and don't deny it - both came right out and told everyone before the election their plans to destroy the economy in order to "rebuild" it, and Trump's fetish for tariffs was well known).But yeah - a lot of innocent people will suffer for this, and even sadder not any good will come of it. What intelligent businessman would start new ventures in the US given the day-to-day instability that makes any kind of planning an impossibility?Edit -QuoteQuote

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 24, 2025, 10:52:33 pm
content: Wait three months and see. T'rump is already backtracking, and is not the most thoughtful and consistent and dependable person.I also feel sorry for those that have to pay the extra tariffs.

author: TomKatt
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 24, 2025, 11:00:53 pm
content: Quote from: tggzzz on April 24, 2025, 10:52:33 pmI have no doubt about that, though they both seem to flip-flop in the breeze anyway. And despite Trump's bully comments, like any bully he's actually a coward and will probably back down after he's been cornered. I imagine that China sees this whole debacle as a blessing - they'll probably come out in a better position in the end.PS - unimaginable and irreparable damage can be done in less than 3 months. In fact, I'd suggest it's been done already. And while Trump may be a coward, his impulse to lash out at any cost thanks to his vanity, combined with his utter disregard for the rule of law - does make him extremely dangerous.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 08:22:31 am
content: Quote from: TomKatt on April 24, 2025, 11:00:53 pmIt already has been done, in terms of his country's reputation for moral and financial stability, and (especially) science and education.The Chinese would, to use the Chinese word, be fools tokowtow(ho ho) to him, and they aren't. Financially, watch the bonds markets, especially the 10 and 30 year Treasury bond yield. That's where the UK felt the pain of Liz Truss' ill-advised libertarian budget before she was defenestrated after 49 days in power.As for the much vaunted constitution'schequeschecks and balances, we have yet to see how much it is worth.I see T'rump has, again, said "I know what I'm doing". As the old expression goes "If you've got to say you're a lady, then you ain't". I'd love to find the source of that quote; I remember it as being from a 1930s/40s gangster movie, where Bogart/Robinson/Cagney/etc says it to his moll.

author: EE-digger
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 02:35:02 pm
content: The tariffs are a tool and in many ways, do work quite powerfully. But you get boneheads like Xi and others who I won't mention and the people get caught in the crossfire. The exceptions for cell phones and other items are a rapid response to limit the damages until the playing field stabilizes. But you gotta look at the massive imbalances in tariffs and realize that something had to be done to equalize them. No one else has the brass spherical objects to do it except DT.So I'm ticked off because I can't buy another scope I really don't need but the guy selling it has one or more warehouses that some in the US are not going to be interested in.I can get that scope for around another $300 and quite possibly, my full Social Security Number. Neither of those will happen.

author: wilfred
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 02:51:09 pm
content: Quote from: tggzzz on April 25, 2025, 08:22:31 amI had to look updefenestratedwhen you used it a few days ago. Now lo-and-behold it turns up in John Bolton's bookThe Room Where it Happened.trump does not seem to have learned anything from the first time around.

author: TimFox
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 02:58:43 pm
content: The Defenestrations of Prague occurred in 1419, 1483, and 1619.

author: UnijunctionTransistor
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 03:01:25 pm
content: Although I don’t fundamentally disagree that something had to be done with the trade deficit, it is its execution which I find beyond stupid and reckless.Like a zener diode (hey, we are in an electronics forum) we are at the knee where the economic clamping is barely felt. But it will escalate very quickly afterwards.To me, and I am no economist, the largest long term damage will be the replacement of the US Dollar as the World’s currency, and the abandonment of the US Treasury Bonds as a means of the World’s safest long term investment.Trump and his supporters don’t realize that the astronomical US government debt has been sustained by “The full faith and credit of the United States government”. When that international trust is gone, the government debt will become unsustainable and the economy will implode.We ain’t seen nothing yet.

author: AVGresponding
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 03:02:00 pm
content: Quote from: tggzzz on April 25, 2025, 08:22:31 amI thought it was "Bullets Over Broadway", but I'm not about to watch it over, just to see if I'm right

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 03:07:03 pm
content: Quote from: wilfred on April 25, 2025, 02:51:09 pmDefenestrated is a lovely old wordUnfortunately T'rump has learned a lot. The first time he didn't expect to win, didn't have a plan, and didn't know how to execute plans in Washington. All that has changed

author: TomKatt
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 03:39:38 pm
content: Quote from: tggzzz on April 25, 2025, 03:07:03 pmAgreed. And the MAGA thinktanks worked the last 4 years coming up with plans to counter any resistance that might be thrown up to thwart them. And it all appears to be working.Add to that intimidation of political wings intended to keep the executive office in check to the point they rubber stamp approvals over his every desire and you end up where we are.

author: KungFuJosh
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 04:26:20 pm
content: Quote from: AVGresponding on April 25, 2025, 03:02:00 pmIt's slightly misquoted from Margaret Thatcher.

author: themadhippy
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 04:34:43 pm
content: Hey its not all doom an gloom,uk gas prices are expected to drop,cheers donaldhttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy5r190y3kko

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 04:36:07 pm
content: Quote from: KungFuJosh on April 25, 2025, 04:26:20 pmI remember it from school holidays, i.e. well before Thatcher's use of "powerful", let alone that film. EDIT: it was certainly before she was PM, but might be during her "milk snatcher" era; but nobody paid much attention to her then.I've no reason to believe the film I saw it in was the source.

author: KungFuJosh
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 05:24:31 pm
content: Quote from: tggzzz on April 25, 2025, 04:36:07 pmThatcher's full quote is “Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't.” She could have stolen it from someone else too. Who knows.It's certainly an old quote, considering she's talking about them fancy Lady types with a capital L. 😉😉

author: JoeRoy
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 11:26:02 pm
content: This isn't about tariffs — it's about reciprocity. You should demand other countries drop their tariffs or bring manufacturing back to the U.S.We've been losing jobs to nations where production is subsidized and the currency is artificially undervalued. Ever wondered how it's possible to get free shipping from xina to the U.S.? That's not free — it's manipulated.Study basic economics:$1 spent in the local economy circulates, multiplying into more dollars, jobs, and opportunities. That's how sustainable growth happens.We need to support American-made products. And really — what electronic instrument, equipment, or component can't you find made in the USA?

author: Analog Kid
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 11:34:03 pm
content: Quote from: JoeRoy on April 25, 2025, 11:26:02 pmOK, you bring up a very good point, albeit one I strongly disagree with, so let's look at it:It's true that some countries subsidize their industries, sometimes heavily.Tell me:how in the world do you figure that this is unfair?I cannot for the life of me understand this point of view.Countries subsidize their industries for the very good reason that this is good for the economic health of the country. Should we also condemn countries that subsidize health care, or housing, or education?So what if China (or any other country) subsidizes their industries? Where is it written in stone that this somehow gives them an unfair advantage over countries who don't do this?Certainly if you're a die-hard capitalist or a Randian libertarian, you will condemn this practice--but those elsewhere who have chosen a different economic model, such as socialism, would beg to differ with you on that. They don't live by the same principles that you do, and who's to say they're wrong?Maybe instead of dishing out punitive (and stupid!) measures like tariffs, the US should consider subsidizing its own industries. That might actually achieve the supposed goal of the whole mess, which is to bring back industrial production to our own shores.How'd you like them apples?

author: themadhippy
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 11:39:53 pm
content: Quoteyou mean those jobs that got shipped overseas because it made more profit for the shareholders

author: JoeRoy
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 11:48:40 pm
content: Quote from: Analog Kid on April 25, 2025, 11:34:03 pmCheck what theOECDsays about what defines afree and fair economy. If you believe that applying subsidies toincrease exports is fair, thenyou must also agree that tariffs are fair. You can'tsupport one form of market manipulation while condemning the other.Why do so many countries maintainheavy tariffson U.S. goods? If it's fair forthemto protect their markets, then it's fair for us to do the same. Fair trade has to bemutual, not one-sided.Fair trade requires reciprocity. If other countries protect their industries with subsidies and high tariffs against U.S. goods, thenthe U.S. has every right to respond in kind.

author: Analog Kid
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 11:50:51 pm
content: Again, at the risk of sounding like a broken record:Do you remember the Chinese invasion of the US, back in the 1990s, when they sent gunboats over to both coasts, threatened to start a war if we didn't move our manufacturing base to their country? Remember that?Of course you don't.Because it never fucking happened.We gave away our manufacturing base to them(and to others).Willingly. No gun to our head.

author: Analog Kid
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 25, 2025, 11:53:20 pm
content: Quote from: JoeRoy on April 25, 2025, 11:48:40 pmOK, fine.We're applying the tariffs all right. (Or maybe: who the hell knows with Trump?)But what about subsidies? Is anyone talking about that for the US?And that might actually help, instead of fucking everything up for everyone.

author: JoeRoy
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 12:06:38 am
content: Quote from: themadhippy on April 25, 2025, 11:39:53 pmLet’s remember what’s really happening in those so-called "free market" economies. The profits come from:Extremely low wages, withlittle to no labor rights, healthcare, or worker protections;Heavy government subsidieson production, transportation, and energy;Artificially undervalued currenciesto boost exports;Andhigh import tariffs—in some cases, imports are outright banned.That’s not a level playing field —that’s not a Free Market Economy.These companies aren't creating jobs in the U.S., so applying tariffs on their products won’t cause American layoffs. Andif a product is truly irreplaceable(which is doubtful), we should be making it hereto avoid dangerous dependencies.Remember COVID?xina sold respirators at20 times the fair pricebecause theydominated production.People DIEDas a result of this "outsourced economy" — the same one thatmakes shareholders happy rich while putting public health and national resilience at risk.

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 12:26:10 am
content: The US doesn't have a 'free market economy' either...Corruption is rife in your Congress, with lobbyists pushing special interests at every opportunity, often informing and altering laws to meet corporate needs. See Disney vs Copyright law for an example. The Supreme Court has been captured by corporatist judges who read a 250 year old document as if it has commentary on today's moral dilemma, because it allows them to conveniently rule in favour of their interests.Tax codes are written to favour mega-corporations; the present administration just withdrew from the minimum corporation tax scheme that would have limited tax shopping for mega-corps.Unions are actively discouraged against in most industries, with big corporations engaging in anti-union activities, even though they are essentially the labour market's response to corporate overreach and the sign of a healthy balance of power between employee and employer.The US has literally invaded countries to secure oil and other resources. They engage in blockades against countries deemed unfriendly to US interests, like Cuba, even though there is no good reason to continue that post the Cold War. They refuse to sell equipment to China that would allow them to compete in certain market areas, like advanced GPUs used for AI models. They're blocking China from developing EUV machinery by restricting technology exports.Every country protects its markets and interests, so it's not surprising that the US does this - but you can't pretend that China doing the same for its interests is somehow bad.

author: themadhippy
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 12:27:19 am
content: .Quotewho cares were the profits come from.all the shareholders care about is getting the biggest return on there investment,so what if a few jobs get lost were making a shit tonne of money on the deal.Remind me were is a large proportion of trumps merchandise manufactured?

author: Analog Kid
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 12:29:40 am
content: Quote from: JoeRoy on April 26, 2025, 12:06:38 amOne problem with your analysis is that your assumption (given what you posted earlier) is that the OECD's policies can be taken as gospel, that they are the indisputable basis of Free Trade and Free Market Economies. Meaning that they apply to all countries and societies across the globe.Hate to break it to you, but they don't. The OECD is clearly a Western-based formulation, which has been accused of fostering neocolonialist policies, among other things.I'm not going to argue that line here: the point is that there are, in fact, "different strokes for different folks". Those in the BRICS grouping have much different ideas about how the global economy--but more importantly,their economies--should be organized.Yes, tariffs are certainly a legitimate economic tool, but only if they're used in some kind of rational manner, not as a bullying tactic. Just like national subsidies for industries.

author: Monkeh
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 12:43:09 am
content: Quote from: JoeRoy on April 25, 2025, 11:26:02 pmSpecific product, class of product, or volume of product? Only the second option poses difficulty.Not made in the US: Thevastmajority of advanced semiconductors, including just about every processor which isn't branded Intel, GPUs, most DRAM and NAND.. Volume wise, the US cannot begin to supply its own demand of what it does have the capability to manufacture. Again, excluding of course Intel.. once you've paid through the nose on the tariffs to bring the equipment required for all the manufacturing stepsnotperformed in the US, and spent years building the facilities and training the staff. And then convinced people that yes, this $250 product will now have to be $600 because otherwise the people making it won't be able to eat.So I guess the answer to the question is: The one you want today, or at least in the next fiscal year.

author: Andy Chee
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 12:53:33 am
content: Quote from: JoeRoy on April 25, 2025, 11:48:40 pmIt's not Chinese communist government tariffs on American goods that are making them expensive for Chinese citizens to buy.Chinese citizens simply have no need and/or no desire for American products like Levi jeans or Harley Davidson motorcycles.You can't force me to buy a Harley if I don't bloody want one!

author: brucehoult
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 12:58:22 am
content: Quote from: JoeRoy on April 26, 2025, 12:06:38 amIn NZ we consider ourselves a free market economy.- low wages: minimum NZ$23.50/hour, around US$14, almost twice the US federal $7.25 minimum, but yes a little lower than California, Washington, New York, Oregon, Colorado, Arizona but higher than Florida. Average ... and especially technical ... salaries are definitely lower though.- subsidies. None since the mid 80s.- currency: free floating since March 1985, has risen from US$0.44 at that time to generally in the range $0.65 to $0.70 but around $0.80 in the early 2010s, and around $0.60 since 2022 or so.- import tariffs. Zero on almost everything from almost everywhereWe have a free trade agreement with China, and a trade surplus with them.As one (strangely IMO) very unusual example, we have an open skies policy. Any airline from anywhere (that meets safety standards) is free to fly to and from NZ, or fly NZ domestic routes (whether as part of an international route or not).The same for shipping.

author: JoeRoy
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 01:03:31 am
content: Quote from: tom66 on April 26, 2025, 12:26:10 amWho cares about China? They're 90% dependent on the U.S. economy. Just check the xina news — businesses there are shutting down by the hundreds every day, and tariffs haven't even kicked in yet (they start in a week).They know the solution: zero their tariffs against U.S. goods — simple.We’ll do just fine without buying cheap, disposable junk from xina. Let’s see how they cope when 90% of their income dries up — their own practices are coming back to bite them. Time to rebalance the scales

author: SteveThackery
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 01:05:52 am
content: Quote from: JoeRoy on April 25, 2025, 11:26:02 pmNo - you've beengivingjobs to those nations. Exactly the same as we have here in the UK. Our manufacturers deliberately moved manufacturing to China because they could make those products for less. Thus the UK company makes more profit and/or gains market share.We can't be surprised that the Chinese learned how to design products for themselves and then competed with our home-designed products. We brought this whole thing upon ourselves because we were greedy for profit and cheap goods.The loss of manufacturing was pretty much a government policy here in the UK, with politicians talking about transitioning to a service economy, and "moving further up the value chain".However, there has been some "unfairness" that isn't our fault: China's blatant theft of intellectual property; their outrageous willingness to manufacture and sell us fake products; and finally their bare-face lying by stamping fake "CE" marks on products which are not only non-compliant, but actually dangerous. China behaves psychopathically - that is, with an utter lack of a conscience.

author: Monkeh
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 01:14:49 am
content: Quote from: JoeRoy on April 26, 2025, 01:03:31 amIf you're going to try and participate in a discussion on a subject like this, at least get your numbers vaguely in the ballpark of reality. Yes, the US is their biggest export market - at around 15% of total exports. The rest of the world is quite large, you know. And it's not impressed.

author: EPAIII
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 01:24:26 am
content: Seems that almost everyone here is in agreement, more or less.Boy, I would love to be the salesman who greets you when you come to buy a used car!

author: David Hess
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 02:42:46 am
content: Quote from: wilfred on April 25, 2025, 02:51:09 pmHe learned to not allow players in the executive branch to subvert the Presidency. It will still happen, but not to the same extent.Quote from: Andy Chee on April 26, 2025, 12:53:33 amThe Chinese communist government does not need to use tariffs when they control monetary policy.

author: Andy Chee
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 02:54:05 am
content: Quote from: David Hess on April 26, 2025, 02:42:46 amSo shouldn’t the current administration be implementing reciprocal monetary policies?

author: Analog Kid
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 04:13:57 am
content: Since we're on the topic of tariffs and China and all that, I wanted to post something interesting I found over on another site.It's fromMoonOfAlabama.org, which is definitely a "fringe" site, and therefore has some quite intriguing content (as well as flotsam and jetsam that you need to navigate around):Quote

author: David Hess
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 04:36:22 am
content: Quote from: Andy Chee on April 26, 2025, 02:54:05 amMaybe, but the executive branch cannot do that without legislation. There are 3 or 4 ways to get around the financial problems that the US is facing, and tariffs are the only one available. I doubt it will work, but doing nothing will work even less well.

author: hans
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 08:07:23 am
content: I'm fairly certain these tariffs will fail, or will be used for further propaganda.EU is a big market for US and China. (its remarkably quiet from EU-mainland folks here). The solidarity for CA has risen up quite high around here. I cancelled all my US subscriptions (like Amazon or Netflix), would rather buy my electronic parts from LCSC than Digikey, and generally avoid buying groceries from brands owned by US shareholders. Our gov is preparing policies to reduce reliance on US cloud infrastructure or software such as Google/Microsoft/Meta/Apple.The trade war hasn't started yet right? Well if one side starts talking about it.. this is what you get. We haven't even faced real tariffs because Trump backed out of them, so only a minority of people are doing this. However, gov preparations have begun to at least have a plan when that happens. I don't think Trump oversees the kind of disaster that will take place if a similar kind of backlash with Tesla will hit US export wide. Especially when he now gave everyone more time to prepare themselves.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 09:00:02 am
content: Quote from: David Hess on April 26, 2025, 02:42:46 amNot just the executive branch - the judicial branch as well, e.g. installing compliant judges and arresting others.Yesterday'sexamplehttps://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/25/judge-hannah-dugan-milwaukee-arrestTL;DR: T'rump - or rather his backers - learned more than that

author: Fflint
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 09:23:26 am
content: Quote from: tggzzz on April 25, 2025, 08:22:31 amYes, irreparable reputation damage has already been done. Here in Poland for example the defense thing is a big topic. In a way as someone who knows history (how the allies basically gave Poland to Stalin at the end of ww2, but while one can understand the practical reasons for that such as no appetite for a war with USSR, one cannot understand other things such as booting Polish from the "winner's parade" in London in 1945 or not even giving a basic military pension to hundreds that fought in the air battle for the protection of British isles (almost none of them could return to Soviet occupied Poland or they would be killed just for being seen as belonging to "elite" or the wrong class in communist-speak) and similar stuff.Why am I bringing thayt up? To illustrate that there was a lot of "pragmatism" in the idea that western European allies will come and help and only a little more trust in the US. That trust grew over last 3 decades. Only slightly being subverted by things like "Obama's Russian Reset" or domestic fools and traitors that ruled over the years. But there was still a measure of trust in the US as an ally. If not for the actual ink on the treaties, certainly because of the value of US investment in the country, the involvement of our army in two of US's wars (Iraq and Afghanistan) and lots of current military spending on us gear.That has ALL been thrown out the window now. Everyone knows there is only one thing that can guarantee ultimate security and that thing is a nuclear capability. That capability will be developed non proliferation treaties be damned. That is the first direct result of American public's gullibility to Russian propaganda. As for people like Trump, Tucker, Musk and so on. At least they can have an excuse the propaganda probably targets them personally.If I was Putin I'd have a team of 30 for every important person in the US gov/media/business tasked with doing everything in their power to swing them on "our" side. Feeding them just the right amount of BS mixed with a little bit of truth to the point we are in now. Do I think Tucker and Musk are stupid enough to believe that? Yes, probably. As for Trump, he is either working very hard on convincing himself (You should've stopped and think before you started a fight with Russia Zelensky , right? How could anyone say that seriously?) or he is already senile and doesn't know his arse from his elbow....Economically everyone will manage. The US has already folded the tariffs on most important products from China (electronics). As for the whole "reciprocal " nature of these tariffs. Give me a break. Have you seen the value of US services imported into the EU ?Also the administration admitted the whole "reciprocal" side is BS and they just took the value of exports and imports and calculated the tariff based on that. As for for EU VAT. We pay VAT on everything. Including domestic made goods. Why would imports be excluded from this? I used to buy lots of stuff from the US. You know why I stopped? Because of ridiculous prices of shipping from the US.The whole "cheap Chinese shipping is unfair" idea is wrong, horribly expensive US shipping is unfair. Almost every country on earth is subsidising their postal service(US included). I can easily post stuff to China for fairly reasonable prices. Not as low as them posting their stuff here, but not that much more. As for the US.... No way I'm paying $75 for a box you can put 5 books in.Finally, will the tariffs bring manufacturing back to the US. I highly doubt it. No one in the US (or even Poland for that matter) wants to work on an assembly line for Tvs or sewing jeans. No, automation is the way to go, but the real reason why SE Asia wins is the local supply chains... I don't have to explain to those that tried to build anything.

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 09:25:31 am
content: Quote from: JoeRoy on April 26, 2025, 01:03:31 amThe majority of what China imports from the USA is commodity, like soybean and oil. Their factories and consumers have already started switching away from American products. Meanwhile, China is vital to many American supply chains: no China, no new F-150. So, tell me, who really is dependent upon who? And sure, China might get replaced by Vietnam or Malaysia or another inexpensive Asian country, but is that really what you want? Most of these jobs are not coming back to the USA, because it's too expensive to make that stuff there. That isn't really a bad thing...

author: wilfred
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 10:38:53 am
content: Quote from: David Hess on April 26, 2025, 02:42:46 amThere is that. That's significant for sure. But it is also his weakness since the lack of restraint fuels the chaos and burns up the political capital he brought into the administration.

author: MT
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 11:06:28 am
content: Quote from: tom66 on April 26, 2025, 09:25:31 amChina just ditched all US soybean imports. Bill Still's "The Money Masters - The Rise Of The Bankers" documentary about dollar and banking system which should be a standard lecture in kindergarten, 3,5 hour of in detail you will not get anywhere else:

author: aargee
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2025, 09:24:31 pm
content: Tariffs on, tariffs off... make money out of it... tariffs on, tariffs off... make money .....

author: UnijunctionTransistor
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 02:48:57 am
content: Quote from: Analog Kid on April 25, 2025, 11:50:51 pmAnd let’s not forget, it was a fully bipartisan effort. With the fullest of blessings from America’s corporations.Lately I have been keenly interested in the Apollo program. I have devoured countless books and documentaries about the subject. After I finish I reading/watching all of those, a question always lingers in my mind : could America pull TODAY another Apollo program?Or what about similar mega-efforts like the Manhattan project? Or the Panama Canal? Or to have the steel-making capacity to lay almost 400,000 miles of railroad track?The answer to all of the above is no. Unfortunately, no.

author: Zucca
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 03:13:41 am
content: Quote from: UnijunctionTransistor on April 27, 2025, 02:48:57 amThe Roman Empire was like the USA back it those days, it did not end up well.I hope Trump in Rome did have time to visit"il foro imperiale", a good warning to realize the most powerful country in the world can also be defeated and destroyed...

author: Analog Kid
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 03:13:59 am
content: Quote from: UnijunctionTransistor on April 27, 2025, 02:48:57 amJust to take one of those things, the last one:Check out that first YouToob video I posted above for a look at China's high-speed rail, which pretty much covers their vast country.We here in the US cannot even complete a puny little HSR project between LA and SF.CA "HSR" is nothing more than a very bad joke, a project that may never be completed, a "train to nowhere". (And most importantly, a boondoggle for certain money interests, which is the main reason it's going nowhere.)Hey, I love trains, would love to see an actual HSR line there. But if I still lived in CA I'd vote against it if a bond measure for it came up again.

author: Analog Kid
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 03:15:39 am
content: Quote from: Zucca on April 27, 2025, 03:13:41 amAll empires eventually crumble into dust. Fortunately.Ozymandias and all that.

author: Andy Chee
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 04:01:18 am
content: Quote from: David Hess on April 26, 2025, 04:36:22 amYou say that as if legislation was a bad thing.....And anyway, with Congress being controlled by the party of the president, legislation should get the rubber stamp.Subverting Congress is anti-democratic.

author: vad
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 04:17:37 am
content: Quote from: Analog Kid on April 27, 2025, 03:13:59 amThere is insufficient demand to make such a project financially viable. The average round-trip ticket would need to cost about $2K to break even after 30 years. For the same amount of money, you could fly first class or have door-to-door chauffeur service from San Francisco to LA and back (Uber).

author: Analog Kid
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 06:05:39 am
content: Quote from: vad on April 27, 2025, 04:17:37 amThat's actually not the problem here at all.There's plenty of demand for a fast LA <--> SF rail system. And in some cases it would actually be faster than flying, because you're going from city center to city center.The problem is the insanely incompetent bunch who are running the show, not to mention the corruption inherent in the chosen contractors. All of their decisions so far, from route selection to rolling stock selection to financial planning have been flawed or just dead wrong.They also seem to have very little cognizance of how these projects are successfully done elsewhere (meaning outside the USA).

author: wilfred
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 06:55:11 am
content: Quote from: Zucca on April 27, 2025, 03:13:41 amHe's more likely to take inspiration from this part of the history. (from the aforementioned article)"During the early 20th century, Mussolini restored the Imperial Fora as part of his campaign to evoke and emulate the past glories of Ancient Rome, but he also built the Via dei Fori Imperiali across the middle of the site. The modern street and its heavy traffic has proved a source of damage to the buildings because of vibration and pollution. There have been a number of proposals to remove the road, but none have taken effect."But since he also didn't look to history for the effect of broad tariffs on an economy I'd say it is unlikely.I sure don't see trump as the leader America needs to slow the decline.

author: Fflint
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 08:09:49 am
content: Quote from: vad on April 27, 2025, 04:17:37 amExactly. Although there is another factor at play here. In China if the party/chairman says we're building rail, they are building the rail everything else be damned. People's property rights are ignored, corners are cut, the route is planned the way it is easiest to make not to avoid destruction of important habitats or mess up zoning in areas it passes through. Then there is local opposition that is simply squashed in China (who wants a high speed rail in their back garden when you can't get on/off for a 100km from your home).Don't underestimate these reasons why China can build high speed rail and the US "can't" (in quotes, because I think it could, it just doesn't want the hassle).I know at least here in my part of Europe certain things simply cannot be built, ever, because they get bogged down in the red tape (nuclear power is one example). It is funny, in the rest of the world fusion is always 30 years away. In my country domestic nuclear power is always 30 years away. It has been like that since 1970s when green light was given to build it (but in a way it is good it wasn't built with back then tech). To illustrate why, consider what changes in law, local planning and just in the environment at a disused industrial site of an old mine for example during 2 or 3 decades. At the same time Korea is making new plant in 6 years.As for manufacturing returning to the US... At least for heavy industry such as aluminum production, or virgin steel making plus all associated things at scale. I doubt that will happen. Such investments require many years of planning. Longer than one presidential term. Certainly longer than one presidential "mood swing". It requires political support (like in the old days you needed mafia "protection" for your business) during all that time. Otherwise countries that already have these industries will do everything in their power to undermine yours.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 08:42:25 am
content: Quote from: UnijunctionTransistor on April 27, 2025, 02:48:57 amBin Laden took the crude and ineffective approach to destroying the USA. A more effective approach would have been to use accountants and MBAs

author: brucehoult
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 08:47:00 am
content: Quote from: Analog Kid on April 27, 2025, 06:05:39 amWhat is your evidence for that?There are currently maybe 12000 to 15000 people a day travelling between LA and SF. Assuming they're on average willing to pay $100 that's a maximum of $1.5m a day revenue, or $550m a year.Current estimate of the cost of high speed rail is $106.2 billion.That is 200 years of revenues, or in other words annual ticket revenues might be 0.5% of the cost.California municipal bonds yield around 3.5%, so it would need seven times the current number of travellers just to cover the interest cost, never mind repaying the capital.And that's only if absolutely everyone switches from cars, buses, and plans to the train. Which is not going to happen.Or, at current numbers of travellers the ticket price would need to be, yes, north of $700 to pay the interest and quite possibly $2000 to pay off the capital.QuoteOnly if it's nonstop. But it is proposed to have 24 stations on the route, making the average leg perhaps only 15 miles. It takes about 5 miles for a high speed train to accelerate from 0 to 300 km/h, and the same to stop. So you'd be lucky to average over 120 mph on a 15 mile leg (7.5 minutes) and a 2.5 minute stop would drop that to 90 mph average.It's going to take more than 4 hours to do the trip. Could be more.Although the train can go city center to city center those are unlikely to be most people's actual origin and destination, making it hard to beat the 5 1/2 hours door to door for driving.With 1300 passengers per train, you're only going to need 5 or 6 trains each way each day, meaning that they're going to leave only once every 4 or 5 hours. further adding to the door to door time.Existing successful high speed routes such as Paris to Toulouse or Moscow to St Petersburg typically need at least 10-15 trains each way per day.But with the expected cost of the LA to SF route it would need to be more like 40 trains each way per day -- 50,000 passengers.

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 11:03:02 am
content: Quote from: brucehoult on April 27, 2025, 08:47:00 amWell there's your problem. It simply should not cost $106 billion to put in a railway between two major cities 350 miles apart!The UK has had a similar issue with High Speed 2 costing, at last check, £82 bn (US$109 bn) to link London and Birmingham, which are even closer than LA and SF.I suspect the root causes for these issues are similar.Contractors with no incentive to cut costs: if an issue is found, they might be awarded a further contract to "fix" that! So make it as big of an issue as possible. Insist that the tunnel must be put here, that TBM must be used instead of cut and cover. The most absurd one I saw was for a two year long project to upgrade a highway, they'd built a brand new roundabout and car park for the staff, with street lamps and road signs. It would all be demolished in a few years. Why can't they just put some stones down like a pub car park does? The reason given: some of our staff might need to walk on it and they find it uncomfortable. They're construction workers! I'm sure they could build a small tarmac/concrete section for disabled visitors (project managers I guess?), but they didn't need to do the whole thing.A few very large companies willing to bid on these projects with implicit collusion between bidders: this keeps prices high and complexity high. There are very few contractors able to build on the scale required.An aim for zero injuries and certainly zero fatalities, which means that health and safety comes nearly above all else. This is good, but it costs a lot of money to implement.Insanely over-regulated environmental surveys: oh, the great spotted newt lives here, we need to survey this spot for five years to make sure that it has moved on.NIMBYism demanding the route avoids their preferred beauty spot: you must put it in a tunnel here, or redirect it around here, because "I like this bit", and I will take you all the way to the supreme court to stop youA demand that it be built for very high speed to satisfy political ambition, rather than something like mostly 140mph running throughout (still likely competitive with flying when check-in and driving/taxi to the airport is considered). This constrains the route considerably - if the track could be built between the highway median new land does not need to be purchased.The ultimate consequence of this environmental over-regulation, is that we end up with inadequate solutions for longer, which causes more harm. For instance, the NIMBYs complaining about wind power harming birds, ultimately kill more birds in the end from habitat loss due to climate change, than they ever risked if the wind turbines were built.I think the same applies for building new stuff in the west: we have regulated our industries to death, and then instead just buy product from abroad. But that product isn't cleaner, it's just that they're polluting the Chinese countryside instead of ours. Is that any better? Perhaps if we are going to apply regulations to native industries, we should apply similar requirements, with verifiable auditing, to foreign industries.

author: madires
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 11:06:47 am
content: Quote from: UnijunctionTransistor on April 25, 2025, 03:01:25 pmThere will be always trade deficits with many countries. Don't look just at the numbers! Understand the reasons! Assume a small and poor country A with a million people and one of its largest source of income is farming coffee. The US imports lots of coffee from A, but A imports nearly nothing from the US, causing a trade deficit. One million people don't need as much as 340 million. And they are poor too, they can't afford expensive US products. BTW, coffee dosn't grow well in the US (besides Hawaii). Does this trade deficit need to be fixed? No, it can't be fixed. It is what it is.Is there a trade deficit beween EU and US? Yes, but it's just €48 billion (2023), i.e. 3% of the total EU-US trade. Please seehttps://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-us-trade/for some nice charts:QuotePeanuts. Another lesson: trade comprises goods and services.The trade deficit between China and US is more complex. China's main income is from manufacturing goods for export, and most people are poor (despite CCP propaganda telling something different). On the other side they ignore IP rights, steal IP, flout international rules of trade, and aggressively attack overseas industries using illegal means. Consequences are long overdue. But finding the right punishment won't be easy.

author: brucehoult
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 12:37:14 pm
content: Quote from: tom66 on April 27, 2025, 11:03:02 amSure, I agree it should not cost so much, but as you point out this what they cost in the modern environment.I don't know how much padding you think there is, but the cost would have to be more like $10 billion to make tickets competitive with existing options.Quote140 mph trains have been around since the mid 1960s! That's not very ambitious. The existing New York to DC train goes that fast on some sections of the route.But in any case I don't think highway medians work out.US freeways are typically built with 500m to 700m curve radius. At 700m, the maximum speed for a train is around 80 mph.If you want 140 mph then you need a turn radius of around 2300m, and true high speed trains restrict the curve radius to 7000m to 10000m -- an order of magnitude gentler curves than on freeways.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 01:28:48 pm
content: Quote from: tom66 on April 27, 2025, 11:03:02 amAnd then there are financial incentives... The value land on the route is the commercial value. Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) have zero commercial value, therefore it is cheaper to destroy them, and therefore there is a strong presumption that they will be destroyed.Somethinghas to counterbalance such bizarre and stupid and perverse incentives, and protests are the only mechanism that people have found.QuoteI've had two places that gave me a lot of pleasure destroyed; I used to stop and admire them regularly, but no longerOne was stomped on by the M25, with few people noticing.The other was stomped on by the M3, at Twyford Down, which raised all hell of a protest from all sorts of people that wouldn't normally protest. As wackypedia puts it... "the protest-action on top of the down, described in 1994 as the most controversial British motorway project ever to start construction, attracted a wider range of classes of people than had previously been the case, and caused a violent clash with onsite security officers."

author: u666sa
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 03:21:03 pm
content: Quote from: EE-digger on April 24, 2025, 10:33:39 pmWhy not have it brought over the border via car?

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 04:04:34 pm
content: Quote from: u666sa on April 27, 2025, 03:21:03 pmPresumably tax evasion is a criminal offence in the US, and you wouldn't want masked men turning up and disappearing you.

author: Analog Kid
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 04:49:16 pm
content: Quote from: tggzzz on April 27, 2025, 04:04:34 pmOnly if they catch you ...

author: Monkeh
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2025, 06:03:46 pm
content: Quote from: Analog Kid on April 27, 2025, 04:49:16 pmThey're far too busy punching authors in the face and pepper spraying them for not immediately laying on the ground, then convicting them of a felony for it (true story, look up Peter Watts) to deal with real crimes at the border.

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 28, 2025, 08:40:21 am
content: Quote from: tggzzz on April 27, 2025, 01:28:48 pmThe problem is, we seem to suspend infrastructure projects at the whim of a few people. Tens of thousands of people travel that section of the M3 every day, for instance. Why are we not considering the benefit to their lives over people who enjoy the nature? I enjoy nature too, but I also enjoy infrastructure and the benefits it brings to my life. HS2 only ended up so expensive because so much of it is tunneled under the Chilterns, which wouldn't have been done in most other countries. In the ideal world, we'd preserve both nature and build infrastructure, but that's often impossible or uneconomic, and it's killing the country. It's meant that HS2 to Leeds and Scotland will probably never happen.Another example has to be the Stonehenge tunnel, where the NIMBYs have successfully achieved nothing. They've managed to keep the current arrangement of busy single carriageway road, thinking that is better than tunneling in that area, because how dare you try to build a bigger road that isn't 200% more expensive that doesn't meet our exact demands.