Lead times increasing..... - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: Northy
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: December 17, 2020, 03:30:57 pm
content: I've recently become aware of a number of manufacturers standard lead times going out from say 12 weeks to over 40 weeks.It doesn't just seem to be one manufacturer in particular.Does anyone know what's going on?G

author: SMTech
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: December 17, 2020, 03:39:34 pm
content: In the 2008 recession, they mothballed factories and leadtimes went through the roof. Economically we have something just as savage happening now but with the added pressure facilities all along the supply chain needing to close due to COVID outbreaks disrupting everyone's schedules. It also means certain things get re-prioritized, e.g temperature MEMS sensors over other stuff. And of course on the consumer side you have a new gen of consoles, new apple kit and seasonal demand. Some products only get one or two production runs a year as it is, if that stock is taken up by a high demand user you have to wait.

author: fcb
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 17, 2020, 04:03:21 pm
content: Same cyclical shit that's been happening for at least the last 30 years.Also same stuff that seems to happen to pretty much every estabilished industry, made worse by the race-to-the-bottom, made better by the speed at which you can design out parts, made worse by the speed up in the consumer product lifecycle, made better by the ease of buying internationally, etc...

author: Mangozac
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: December 17, 2020, 08:30:09 pm
content: I don't know the reason but rest assured many of us share your pain. I'm about to order a year's worth of stock of Omron relays because the lead times are stretching out past several months. And Microchip send me notifications almost weekly about increasing lead times, some now over 6 months 😲

author: JPortici
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 18, 2020, 05:34:12 am
content: from what i know, ST is probably the one you are talking about. It has extended lead time to 40w or worse on old as dirt stuff (like STM32F1 era components) and automotive-related power stuff because the market is currently on hold.Others are extending lead time on components used in medical devices (which could also be standard opamps, but since they're used in certified designs..)

author: Northy
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: December 20, 2020, 08:13:24 pm
content: Been told it's because TSMC are struggling to get enough wafers!G

author: forrestc
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: December 21, 2020, 09:42:45 am
content: Quote from: Northy on December 17, 2020, 03:30:57 pmCovid is slowing things down for everyone, plus demand for electronics have gone through the roof in some market segments. I know that all 4 of the manufacturers I rely on for enclosures are seeing unprecedented demand for enclosures, which is a good indication that sales for electronic products are up, not down - since all 4 of them are seeing the same thing.When you combine the combination of not being able to produce things as quickly, and demand increasing, the only option is that the lead time increases.Everyone in the manufacturing supply chain for electronics seems to be having similar issues and struggles. We have components which have always been widely available and now are nonexistent with many many week lead times. We've decided to keep 6 months of stock on the shelf for pretty much all single-sourced products, and I'm sure that's pretty common now - as opposed to 30-60 before. This of course increases demand even further. Think the toilet paper shortage (at least in the US) early in the spring.

author: Microdoser
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: December 21, 2020, 11:15:42 am
content: I have noticed this too. I use Analog chips in some designs and some of those have increased lead times.

author: Northy
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: December 23, 2020, 12:58:06 pm
content: Stockpiling in the middle of a pandemic and uncertain times does feel a bit counter-intuitive, but I guess theres not much choice!G

author: Niklas
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: December 23, 2020, 10:58:50 pm
content: Our EMS hinted recently about possible increases in lead times for most components during Q1 or early Q2 2021. Electrical cars and 5G Mobile systems increases demand. Should have come earlier, but was delayed by Covid 19.In our case we already have significant safety stock and second source due to our annual volume. Another tips is to not rely on confirmed orders, as they might be cancelled or delayed on short notice. Better to have the parts under your control.

author: Northy
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: December 28, 2020, 02:00:13 pm
content: Thanks all, all makes sense. I guess stockpiling is the way to go....G

author: BreakingOhmsLaw
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: December 29, 2020, 07:23:34 pm
content: Here's an extensive overview of current lead times for just about anything:http://tk-gm.com/Newsletter/EBV/2020_Commercial/12/Commercial_Newsletter_Dec_2020.pdf

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 29, 2020, 11:22:20 pm
content: As I uderstand all these fancy glitter bling electronics in cars for example is emptying the stock of MOSFETs and MLCs. Like they have now a bunch of LEDs, individually controllable near the dashboard. Previously it was a resistor, now it is a driver chip, FET, MLCC, for every single LED, every button, every switch. They want haptic feedback the next... All these smart speakers have a computer running Linux in them, with SMPS and a Bluetooth chip, while previously they had two capacitor and inductors.Every 2-3 years the lead times go through the roof. Then they expand the manufacturing capacities, everything is normal, then (because it is cheap) they start selling earplugs with individual Bluetooth in both, because that cable is too inconvenient for the people. Or some other shit. Probably smart pacifiers for adults.

author: Northy
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: January 05, 2021, 09:22:23 am
content: The only option seems to be, buy, buy buy.But that only makes it worseG

author: SMTech
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: January 05, 2021, 09:55:56 am
content: And that only works if you have cash on hand to put into expensive buffer stock or can persuade your client to (as applicable). That right now is a risky proposition for many.

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 05, 2021, 10:47:28 am
content: Quote from: SMTech on January 05, 2021, 09:55:56 amNah, depending on your distributor, they might give you a buffer stock without spending anything. And payment 1-2 months after receiving the parts.I'm always surprised why people working with electronics don't understand the market.

author: SMTech
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: January 05, 2021, 11:00:00 am
content: They will assign stock for 12months+ in some cases on a call off. But your volumes need to be worth it and you have to trust that call of works and they don't "accidentally" sell it to someone else. As you may have noticed a huge proportion of the people on this forum don't buy much of anything on terms, or have agreed discounting structures with major suppliers or any of the typical arrangements larger firms might have. You might also struggle to do some of this with the expensive low volume parts from AD/LT either because the stock simply isn't available to buy up or a bigger fish already has dibs on it. Plus the lead times frequently shoot way past 2-3 months when tings start going bad.