Tesla expects global shortage of electric vehicle battery minerals - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 02:51:52 am
content: I'll try and keep this on-topic.Most interesting part was this, I was likeQuoteCurrent copper usage is 23M tons a year. Would just these home gadgets use like 5% of the market for copper? Really?https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-lithium-electric-tesla-exclusive/exclusive-tesla-expects-global-shortage-of-electric-vehicle-battery-minerals-sources-idUSKCN1S81QS

author: tpowell1830
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 03:34:23 am
content: Looks like pre-1982 US pennies are worth more than face value now, since they are copper. The newer ones are mostly zinc.But, I am not surprised that a copper shortage is emanite, look at copper prices rise over the years. With all of the home gadgets getting more and more popular in the states, copper producers will be the new silver kings. Most of the tech companies have an "Alexa" type device, and I only see more demand for them, not less. Also, many new home builds here include full category 5 wiring for every room in the house, as well as the security wiring, and speaker wiring. Although with wifi predominate in the market, I look for the cat 5 wiring to drop slightly in popularity, but not go away. I have 250 Mbps internet and I use wifi for most things, even though it knocks down the rate to 56 Mbps, but for work projects, where I need the speed, I plug a cable in and get the full benefit of the higher rates. 56Mbps is fine for videos and EEVBlog, and gets the ugly cable out of the floor.As far as cars are concerned, there are many EVs and hybrids, either already on the road or planned in the future. IMO I think EVs will be predominate in the field in the not-too-distant-future. The Reuters article stated that EVs use twice the copper as combustion engine cars, but that sounds like a WAG. I bet EVs use more than twice the copper and it will only get worse. Slowly we are moving to an all electric world, and, since copper is the cheapest and most plentiful metal and best suited metal for the price for electrical current carrying, the demand for copper will continue to rise. Aluminum is a close runner, but has its (too many) problems. Plus, we don't know what other new gadget will hit the markets by storm in the next few years that is a copper dependent. A good time to invest in copper futures?

author: T3sl4co1l
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 04:29:45 am
content: Fermi estimate shows it's an obvious slip:Say they achieve 100% market penetration. That's ~10^8 homes = 10^8 units. To consume 10^6 tonnes = 10^9 kg, they would need to use 10 kg each.Even if they were using 1kg each and they're counting total, not annual, it would have to be a lot. It could plausibly be based on a naive assumption of exponential growth, whereas market share grows logistically.However, EVs andwhole home systemscan believably use that much, even annually at that rate, if adoption becomes pervasive.Basically, they didn't state their conditions clearly, so it's a meaningless number. Which combination and rate is it? Who knows.Regarding materials costs and smart homes, it's interesting that very dumb cabling -- door sensors and the like -- can be wired from very cheap mild steel (probably galvanized), without too much concern for corrosion (crusty white zinc corrosion being not quite as bad as aluminum's ever-present surface, I would suppose?), and no worry about signal attenuation on a very low bandwidth current loop circuit.Aluminum is already well known and understood for power distribution purposes, but it takes a bit more care to pull off (and hence isn't allowed for mains in housing right now). It's unclear if, say, CAT5 or mod connectors with deoxidizer built in could be made, so the home gamer can make practical use of it for cheaper data lines.It's an interesting question if aluminum versus copper is the better deal for EVs: aluminum is much cheaper, but takes up far more space, so more laminated iron and magnets (rare earths!) are required, and the hardware gets larger. Space is, quite literally, at a premium, and you could derive a cost for space used on a vehicle.How much more expensive would copper have to be, for aluminum to be an economical substitute?Tim

author: Bud
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 06:08:09 am
content: What is so special with Alexa compare to say a microwave oven transformer in every house?

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 06:22:55 am
content: Quote from: Bud on May 04, 2019, 06:08:09 amEvery house already has a microwave, but few have an Alexa

author: AndyC_772
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 07:15:17 am
content: A moment's thought suggests a couple of very different demands are being confused here.Electric vehicles certainly do contain significant bulk quantities of copper. The electronic content of an EV might not be that different to a conventional ICE vehicle, but the motors, power cables and bus bars certainly weigh enough to be considered a new, significant demand.On the other hand,smart thermostatsandalexa? Really?These are small electronic devices with a single PCB and maybe a small speaker, and their copper content is tiny.Was there a significant impact on worldwide copper demand when we all bought our first wi-fi routers, or digital TV set-top boxes?Was there a significantdropin copper demand when we shifted away from CRT TVs to LCD?

author: donotdespisethesnake
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 08:42:33 am
content: With this sort of story, ignore the media reports and head for the source of the info. A summary PDF of the BSRIA report is available herehttps://copperalliance.org/2019/04/09/smart-homes-to-lift-copper-market/QuoteProbably to get the actual data you need to pay money to BSRIA...

author: Bud
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 02:28:57 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on May 04, 2019, 06:22:55 amYes but i thought Alexa was mentioned in a context of copper use. So i asked what makes her so big consumer of copper compare to a oven transformer so it becomes a problem?

author: NorthGuy
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 03:11:50 pm
content: Quote from: T3sl4co1l on May 04, 2019, 04:29:45 amI think my house has much more than this in pipes.

author: GopherT
author_rank: Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 03:20:02 pm
content: The comparison is, demand in 2020 for copper going to Alexa vs microwave ovens. Since everyone already has a microwave, there may be 100x or 500x more Alexa-style smart speakers sold vs microwave ovens this year. Most copper in an Alexa is the 5v power supply, not the pcb.Also, homes take a lot of copper but most homes are already built and we only count new homes vs all the new & replacement electronics that are bought to furnish new AND existing homes so 5% market demand for copper into electronic devices is not unrealistic in my mind. Also, the level of accuracy may be +/-5% so no reason to get more accurate. Even if some applications are listed as 1%, that is done because the market researcher knows that those are significantly less than consumer electronics so they give those categories a 1%. These are estimates numbers because it is impossible to track all the value chains, many mines and recycling facilities globally, to the ultimate end application.

author: GopherT
author_rank: Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 03:22:39 pm
content: Quote from: NorthGuy on May 04, 2019, 03:11:50 pmMaybe, but demand for copper in plumbing is way down in 2019 vs 20-years ago due to the simple and fast installation of Cross-linked polyethylene plastic tubing for residential new construction..

author: Bud
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 03:59:22 pm
content: Quote from: GopherT on May 04, 2019, 03:20:02 pmI still fail to see hows that a problem. The power supply is going to be a switching one, not linear one. One microwave oven transformer by copper weight will equal hundreds alexas.

author: NiHaoMike
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 04:04:32 pm
content: Quote from: T3sl4co1l on May 04, 2019, 04:29:45 amThere's some CAT5 and a lot of coax made from copper plated steel, mechanically tougher and works just as well as solid copper for data thanks to the skin effect. Where they don't perform well is when they have to carry DC power for PoE.

author: stj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 04:18:27 pm
content: so the "copper alliance" says a shortage is aproaching - implying price rises.why is my internal "fraud warning" going off??the oil company's have pulled this stunt before - sell less product, but take more earnings!!

author: NorthGuy
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 04:47:07 pm
content: Quote from: GopherT on May 04, 2019, 03:22:39 pmThere are also several kg of copper in electric wiring, perhaps even more than in pipes.

author: maginnovision
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 04:57:34 pm
content: Quote from: stj on May 04, 2019, 04:18:27 pmThere is some question of this type of thing going on in California right now with petrol. Very high prices they claim is supply/demand but for some reason no other state is selling it to us. Now they're opening an investigation as to why we have limited supply and nobody else seems to want to make EXTRA money selling to California.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 05:20:59 pm
content: The oil shortage is due to sanctions on Iran, unrest in Venezuela and (IIRC) Libia.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 06:00:45 pm
content: Quote from: Bud on May 04, 2019, 06:08:09 amOr a TV, PC, stereo system, or any other gadget. I think these smarthome gadgets are fairly silly but I'm skeptical of copper being an issue with them, they're fundamentally no different than any other electronic gadget from that perspective.On the flip side, the proliferation of switchmode power supplies means a significant reduction in copper required for the multitude of power transformers in a typical home.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 06:03:27 pm
content: Quote from: NiHaoMike on May 04, 2019, 04:04:32 pm

author: Brutte
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 07:17:42 pm
content: You cannot ask arbitrary price for copper, even when the supply/demand shifts istantly. Even if at t=t0 we closed all the copper smelters, the market shifts to the next closest alternative* the next day.For example the fact we have copper in the wiring of cars does not mean that Cu is the only material on Earth that conducts electrons. It is just the one that maximizes the profit of (VW) shareholders so their engineers used it. So if the copper disappears from the market one day then it does not mean that the cars won't be produced any more. It is just that the engineers will use next solution in the row. They will either switch to Aluminum, or CCA or steel or they will raise the voltage from 12V to 1kV and use silver instead. However, they will be always driven by the same goal - to maximize the profit of the shareholder (I hope). And in business you rarely face a situation where there is one bull's eye option and all the other decisions are total crap. It is more like several viable options competing about single cents of profit. Same applies to Cu.*Giffen gooddoes not apply to Cu in this case.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 07:44:49 pm
content: Still EVs can't do without Lithium and Cobalt. Both are in short supply and there are no alternatives available you can start using tomorrow. BMW can only produce half the EVs they want to produce because they don't have enough batteries available. Tesla is likely massaging their shareholders to be 'happy' with lower production numbers despite what Musk has been twittering.

author: madires
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 07:45:39 pm
content: To make the IoT devices in someone's home work servers, storage systems and network elements in datacenters are needed too.

author: retrolefty
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 08:03:01 pm
content: Quote from: maginnovision on May 04, 2019, 04:57:34 pmYou are aware that California requires a unique gasoline formulation that changes depending on the season? Only for prolonged refinery outages do out of state and foreign refiners whip out the proper formula gas to try and catch a upward demand curve. Usually it's just not profitable enough to take advantage of.

author: David Hess
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 10:16:22 pm
content: Quote from: maginnovision on May 04, 2019, 04:57:34 pmAs a protectionist measure, California requires a different formulation of gasoline preventing competition from out-of-state refineries. Then when California has production problems, they complain about the situation that they caused in the first place. When things get desperate enough, they waive the regulations. There are stories describing the machinations of this particular problem with California gasoline going back decades.They do the same thing with milk to prevent out of state competition.

author: David Hess
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 10:26:40 pm
content: Quote from: Brutte on May 04, 2019, 07:17:42 pmInduction rotors almost always use aluminum anyway. The power wiring and bus bars in electric vehicles are also commonly aluminum. Except where power per weight or size is important, it comes down to economics and aluminum is already used where it and any inconveniences are less expensive.During World War 2, copper shortages in the US led to replacing the copper bus bars in the power houses along the Columbia river with silver ones (1) and assigning armed guards.(1) The silver came from Fort Knox and was returned after the war.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 04, 2019, 10:43:58 pm
content: A nice thing about metals is that they are generally easily recycled, so copper tied up in a vehicle or anything else can be returned to circulation when the equipment reaches end of life.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 05, 2019, 12:53:18 am
content: Quote from: james_s on May 04, 2019, 10:43:58 pmCopper yes, but Lithium and Cobalt in a battery not so much because they are chemically bound to other substances.

author: maginnovision
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 05, 2019, 01:07:05 am
content: Quote from: David Hess on May 04, 2019, 10:16:22 pmYea, it's always been a problem. I was just commenting on the copper situation possibly being the same. Creating a self fulfilling prophecy of shortages potentially allowing them to hike the price either way.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 05, 2019, 03:07:31 pm
content: The shortage of materials could also be a reason manufacturers are moving away from electric vehicles. Audi has announced they are going to move towards hydrogen (https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/audi-renews-hydrogen-powertrain-development-schemeThe reasons behind the move include concerns over the sourcing of natural resources for battery production and doubts over electric cars being able to deliver on ever-more-demanding customer expectations.

author: apis
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 05, 2019, 03:40:52 pm
content: Are they able to recycle lithium batteries yet?

author: Tony_G
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 05, 2019, 03:53:01 pm
content: Not sure if this has been posted before but it is an interesting look as the US REE mining situation:http://www.mining.com/web/us-lost-plot-rare-earths/TonyG

author: Nauris
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: May 05, 2019, 03:58:16 pm
content: Quote from: nctnico on May 05, 2019, 12:53:18 amBut then those chemical bonds are just matter of some pyro- and hydrochemistry, not really any problem.Umicore has pilot-scale li-ion recycling plant with 7000 tonnes annual capacity in Belgium. (Hoboken UHT furnace)

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 05, 2019, 04:57:24 pm
content: Quote from: Nauris on May 05, 2019, 03:58:16 pmThis process needs at least as much energy as processing the original Lithium ore so recycling Lithium batteries is going to be expensive and may not be worthwhile compared to mining Lithium. This means that recycling Li-ion batteries isn't going to help to push the price of EVs down.Copper OTOH is mostly used in it's pure form so recycling it is much less energy demanding.

author: Neilm
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 05, 2019, 06:56:34 pm
content: Quote from: nctnico on May 05, 2019, 04:57:24 pmWhy assume that EV battery recycling means recover the constituent parts? There are several companies that are taking batteries that are now not good enough for electric cars and have repurposed them for other things - generally home storage solutions. Still recycles the batteries.

author: NiHaoMike
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 05, 2019, 07:04:29 pm
content: Quote from: Neilm on May 05, 2019, 06:56:34 pmQuite a few individuals have managed to reuse EV battery packs or cells from EV battery packs in other applications. The Tesla packs are particularly thought after because they contain basically the best 18650s in existence.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 05, 2019, 07:33:06 pm
content: Any way you look at it the cells have a finite lifespan, eventually they deteriorate to where they are not suitable for any purpose, at which point they need to be recycled or disposed of. I'm pretty confident that if raw materials get expensive enough for the economics to be favorable, recycling them will become widespread.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 05, 2019, 07:41:29 pm
content: Quote from: Neilm on May 05, 2019, 06:56:34 pmThat may seem like a nice application but if you look at how Li-ion batteries degrade with the number of charge/discharge cycles you'll see that the degradation drops exponentially beyond the specified lifetime of a cell. The high replacement cost of a battery pack of an EV makes me assume the owner of an EV will only replace it when it is complete and utterly worn. Also to make a decent battery pack you'll need to use cells with an equal quality otherwise a few lesser cells will determine the life of the battery pack. All in all battery packs made from repurposed cells will have a very short life after which you still end up with a pile of cells that need to be recycled or processed as waste.Edit: another problem with repurposing old cells is that cells are optimised for a certain purpose. Cells used in an EV may suck for home storage.