Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking. - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: BrianHG
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 22, 2021, 05:36:51 pm
content: Come on... Seriously... Talk about a dangerous waste of money...

author: BrianHG
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 22, 2021, 05:43:51 pm
content: Take a look at that full disco-christmas lighting effect. I would bet that those with mild motion sickness in those tunnels will either vomit or have seizures in those tunnels, even at 29mph.That embarrassing junk of a project needs to have those dangerous tunnels filled in with concrete, or, repurposed as a sewer system.

author: Alex Eisenhut
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 22, 2021, 05:58:38 pm
content: I thought this was a solved problem. Now to find a Jenny Agutter lookalike.

author: BrianHG
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 22, 2021, 06:14:40 pm
content: I bet that Logan's Run movie prop could go faster than 29mph...

author: Alex Eisenhut
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 22, 2021, 06:29:37 pm
content: Like Star Trek doors, the prop probably relied on off-camera operators to push them along... probably like a dolly.I think the travel tube from Space:1999 is closer to what the Hyperloop shoulda been.Maybe someone can email this to Elon...https://catacombs.space1999.net/cybermuseum/MATN/matn1014.html

author: bson
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 22, 2021, 07:58:24 pm
content: More hassle to ride that thing than just walk the three blocks to the convention center. Talk about a solution looking for a problem...

author: Domagoj T
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 22, 2021, 08:11:01 pm
content: Wouldn't this fall into some category of public transportation system, in which case it would, I assume, be subject to various rule, including fire code?No fire suppression, or even detection, no evacuation route, in fact the cars block the only way out. This thing is a death trap and I can't fathom how it got an operation permit (or whatever it's called).

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 23, 2021, 02:56:47 am
content: Quote from: Domagoj T on April 22, 2021, 08:11:01 pmYou certainly did your research to claim that... Oh wait, you did not.https://www.boringcompany.com/loopQuoteQuoteIn fact nothing prevents you from leaving on your own foot.

author: Ed.Kloonk
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 23, 2021, 04:16:47 am
content: Quote from: Alex Eisenhut on April 22, 2021, 05:58:38 pmI watched American Werewolf in London yesterday.

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 23, 2021, 04:34:51 am
content: I would rather call him an obsessed sceptic, there is little common sense IMHO.

author: Alex Eisenhut
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 23, 2021, 04:50:12 am
content: Quote from: Ed.Kloonk on April 23, 2021, 04:16:47 amShe was also in two Avengers movies.

author: 2N3055
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 23, 2021, 10:52:54 am
content: Quote from: wraper on April 23, 2021, 02:56:47 amYou never saw a burning car, especially electric Tesla, that fire department procedure is to evacuate everybody at safe distance and let it burn until it stops. Ventilation will act to make thing burn more nicely, bringing fresh oxygen.https://firesciencereviews.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40038-015-0006-6Musk is an opportunistic con artist. He promises anything that people are willing to hear, and if there is an interest, he tries to find someone to make it for him. If they fail it's their fault, if they actually make it work, it is his genius and vision. He's full of crap... But in today's faker society he's the hero of all the fakers...

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 23, 2021, 11:32:48 am
content: Quote from: 2N3055 on April 23, 2021, 10:52:54 amTesla model 3 is basically the safest car you can get in regards of caching fire. Also if Tesla catches fire, it propagates much slower than in a regular car.QuoteBS, it's nothing like that.https://www.usfa.fema.gov/training/coffee_break/061819.htmlhttps://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/2016_Model_S_Emergency_Response_Guide_en.pdfQuoteSo you should let people die from breathing smoke.Quoteuninformed BS, in the meantime you can watch a livestream where his company launches astronauts to ISShttps://youtu.be/oqA0ndN-rDc

author: 2N3055
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 23, 2021, 11:54:05 am
content: Quote from: wraper on April 23, 2021, 11:32:48 amYeah, we know you're the biggest Musk's fan of the hemisphere...I said gasoline and mentioned that electric is even worse if it gets on fire... Stop misdirecting..Read that paper I linked... And despite fanboyism, fire depts will work as USFD mandates, not Tesla... And read what amounts of water are needed.Vehicle fire requires fire dept personnel and equipment. How will you get people and equipment in and out if it is blocked.Yes, his company. The work of hundreds of engineers that stood on shoulders of giants and used combined experience of 50 years of space industry research. It is their accomplishment, not his. Like I said.So far they are doing good. We'll see in 20 years, how good they really were. Numbers will tell..Real world research on EV fires in tunel.https://hagerbach.ch/fileadmin/user_upload/news/Road_tunnel_safety_Hazards_of_electric_vehicle_fires_Mellert_2018.pdfThey clearly say energy release is similar to gasoline vehicle, but amount of water is much more, and there are other haphazards. But that is for a classic tunnel that has much larger volume and escape routes.. Also biggest problem is cleanup, with no space for specialized equipment and crew.

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 23, 2021, 12:03:03 pm
content: Quote from: 2N3055 on April 23, 2021, 11:54:05 amProviding a link to a very long document without bringing any points it contains is the best argument ever. And I bet you barely read it yourself.QuoteI literally provided you a link to US fire administration

author: BrianHG
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 23, 2021, 12:10:53 pm
content: Quote from: wraper on April 23, 2021, 02:56:47 amI will not trust this system until I see an example evacuation during a fire, seeing actual two 400 pound Americans successfully opening the Tesla car door, one one each side of the car, get out, and evacuate the tunnel past other Tesla cars in the tunnel in time while the ventilation system leaves them enough clean breathable air at standing height with that tiny diameter tunnel's height. If they are so confident of the system, show me an example video of an actual test fire care of this tiny tunnel, or show example past cases of such a setup. A veritably accurate computer simulation would be acceptable too.

author: fourfathom
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2021, 12:54:39 am
content: Quote from: 2N3055 on April 23, 2021, 11:54:05 amDid Musk claim that he personally designed the SpaceX rockets? If not, this is a rather silly complaint. He hired smart people to use existing technology and expand on it. Just like most companies. And it wouldn't have happened without him. I call that an huge accomplishment and give him tons of credit for it.

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 26, 2021, 04:28:42 am
content: Quote from: fourfathom on April 26, 2021, 12:54:39 amI guess by being purist he uses electronic components made by himself from wood. Otherwise it would be "standing on shoulders of giants and using combined experience of 50 years of industry research."

author: bson
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 26, 2021, 05:18:55 am
content: Quote from: 2N3055 on April 23, 2021, 10:52:54 amBut in this case the Las Vegas Convention Center contracted the Boring Company to build this tunnel for them. I'm sure they got exactly what they wanted - and more importantly paid for. It's just a novelty project to create interest and draw conventions. Not the kind of con you're thinking of.

author: coppercone2
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2021, 05:26:50 am
content: American werewolf in london was a suprizing movie. I watched it towards the end of all the classic movies and it made me quite interested in the british metro system and for some reason 80's British culture or the depiction of it. Not sure why. Nothing else made me quite wonder what the hell I would be doing if I ended up in england. Nothing to do with the werewolf even, its just a weird set. maybe the 80's england was just really weird

author: sandalcandal
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 26, 2021, 04:26:49 pm
content: I ended up going down the rabbit hole a bit again on this one.Trying to find what the actual cost was, as per the videoTBC (The Boring Company) has cost listed as $47M, some more reputable sources tend to have estimated cost to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) at $52.5MRichard N. Velotta "Get a close look at shuttle system 40 feet beneath the convention center" Las Vegas Review Journal, 8 April 2021Digging further in, it seems the $52.5M figure was first obtained from early estimates when the project was initially being negotiated back in early 2019. Earliest mention of this figure I could find was in the Vegas Inc - Las Vegas Sun, 14 May 2019, with the figure coming from the LVCVA CEO Steve HillBryan Horwath "With tourism board near vote on tunnel transport system, Goodman raises objections" VEGAS INC, 14 May 2019$55M seems to be an upper estimate for a $33M to $55M range from earlier in March 2019. Official press release from LVCVA here:Jackie Dennis "LVCVA Board of Directors Votes to Move Forward with Elon Musk's The Boring Company" LVCVA, 12 March 2019Note: The press release is dated March 12 but the earliest references I can find is dated March 6, I guess some press gets advanced releases?Elizabeth Lopatto "Las Vegas bets on Elon Musk’s Boring Company for tunnel project" The Verge, 6 March 2019Also very pertinent quote from the above article from The Verge, March 6, 2019:Quote from: The Verge, 6 March 2019The latest press release from the LVCVA also keeps the $52.5M "system cost" and maintains a maximum expected capacity of 4400 people per hour figure(despite some investigative journalism in 2020 speculating this would not be the case due to fire regs).Erica Johnson "First Look Inside Elon Musk's Underground Transportation System Beneath the Las Vegas Convention Center" LVCVA, 9 April 2021Quote from: LVCVA, 9 April 2021In terms of finding out out muchit actually has costthe LVCVAso far, the best I've found is the LVCVA books which report$33.4MSee line 203https://assets.simpleviewcms.com/simpleview/image/upload/v1/clients/lasvegas/FY_2021_Budget_Schedules_for_Contracts_0cc0ace4-f11a-4bdf-b53a-2a3c8cf89269.pdfI didn't see any mention of TBC in any of the earlier budget schedules:https://www.lvcva.com/funding-finance/budget-schedules-forms-31-32/I'm guessing they aren't expecting or have otherwise agreed to partial payment until the full capacity is achieved?The OP video presents the cost estimate figures like it's some sort of budget blowout which is the opposite of the truth, the cost estimates have stayed the same from the beginning, if anything the costs have gone down.The intention still seems to be to eventually change the system to using pods which can be capable of carrying 16 passengers at a time but when that will happen? Who knows? That's one part I'm sceptical of. I'm guessing documents have been tendered showing how they intend to make a 16 person pod fit though those tunnels safely and it looked feasible enough to be approved. At least the tunnels are there and "paid for"Quote from: Las Vegas Review Journal, 8 April 2021Richard N. Velotta "Get a close look at shuttle system 40 feet beneath the convention center" Las Vegas Review Journal, 8 April 2021I've seen the OP video as well asa really dodgy one from Engadgetthat somehow reduced the number of vehicles from 62 to 16 for their calculation both of which use a passenger number of 3 in their calculations.IF16 passenger vehicles are delivered then by most estimates it looks like the 4400 is very achievable.For claims that an above ground or alternative monorail solution would be some how more cost effective, the competing bid at the time of tendering was for an above ground system that was estimated to cost$215M!Quote from: Las Vegas Sun, 14 May 2019Bryan Horwath "With tourism board near vote on tunnel transport system, Goodman raises objections" VEGAS INC, 14 May 2019Then there's the disruptions the above ground construction would have caused of whichthe loop construction apparently caused none.Also for the larger Vegas Loop (different proposed project expanding beyond the LVCC) consider the Las Vegas Monorail which cost$650Min 2001 not accounting for inflation.KEN RITTER "Work starts on $650 million Las Vegas Strip monorail" Napa Valley Register, 18 August 2001That was also privately funded and went bankrupt last year and was being taken over by the LVCVA.Erica Johnson "Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority Acquires Assets of the Las Vegas Monorail Company" LVCVA, 10 December 2020$162.5M per mile,adjusting for inflationis$234.6M per milein 2019, probably significantly more by 2022 due to US stimulus measures.Compared to the LVCC loop which is 0.8 miles for $52.5M as a government contract (not private as the Vegas Loop will be), that's$65.6M per mile.The Las Vegas Monorail also only has a capacity of3400 people per hourcompared to the planned but yet to be delivered 4400 people per hour.Mick Akers "What it may cost to ride Vegas Loop to local hot spots" Las Vegas Review-Journal, 14 April 2021Even without meeting the planned 4400 people per hour,the cost per mile*capacity of the system offered by TBC looks much better.Comparing timelines the Las Vegas Monorail extension took fromissuing of bonds in mid 2000tillmid 2004 for the official openingfor 3.9 miles i.e. 0.98 miles per year. LVCC took approval mid 2019 till 2021 for press opening so ~1.5 years for 0.8 miles, significantly slower. However,excavation was finished in Q2 2020and urgency of completion is obviously much lower due to COVID. Compared tothe off-the-shelf Godot machine used for the LVCC loop, their claim for the performance target for the latest Prufrock machine is6 times faster than Godot+which was in turn50% faster than Godot. I'd expect timeline to be at least comparable if not faster with TBC compared to a traditional monorail project.It hurts my head to see people I otherwise respect as intelligent and thoughtful to get swayed by BS sensationalismIt's made to piss you off and disinform you. "Debunking"? This is a worthless misleading hit piece meant to incite outrages for clicks not to inform you of some hidden truth.

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 26, 2021, 09:57:10 pm
content: Maybe he can add rails, so it is safer than software. And the rails can carry electricity, so there is no need for batteries. Maybe he makes the cars larger, so more people can get into it.Something, like on this image, from 1894:

author: msuffidy
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 27, 2021, 12:06:21 am
content: That loop sounds ridiculous, but like with most things SpaceX, it 'looks' new. Elon Musk is supposed to host the next Saturday Night Live on May 8. Elon Musk apparently had a child with Grimes, which I don't really know too much about, but I did at least like her 'Realiti' song...

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: May 31, 2021, 05:54:01 am
content: https://twitter.com/SHillforVegas/status/1398497136623247361Quote

author: wizard69
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 01, 2021, 02:13:30 am
content: Quote from: bson on April 22, 2021, 07:58:24 pmHaving tried walking the strip in the middle of summer, I would most certainly take this route if it works well.

author: wizard69
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 01, 2021, 02:45:14 am
content: I think the long term goal here is small van like vehicles. That would increase capacity some. In any event many people don't understand Vegas from the comments seen here:Everything on the strip is an attraction. Corporations go out of their way to try new things there, that can be a new building facade or a new approach to transportation. The idea of course is to present a bit of the future and of course do the all important testing.Musk's underground solution is as much an attraction as anything else on the strip. However if developed in the right way it could actually be a very useful solution for a variety of city needs across the world.The Boaring Companies bid was extremely competitive. Beyond being a competitive bid, Vegas is an ideal place to bring potential customers to demo what is on offer. In a year or two I would expect purpose built vehicles to increase appeal to areas with real transportation problems.Vegas can be extremely hot in the summer, so comments about walking a few blocks can be seen as pretty silly. Been there and tried to do thatBeing underground means nothing ugly to influence the view tourists see.The comments about fires are completely off, especially if one is proposing that gasoline is a better solution. Beyond all of that most of the reported fires of Tesla's are due to stupid drivers crashing at high speed.Attacks on Musk and his accomplishments, do little to diminish the value of this project. It is as much an experiment in new transportation ideas as it is a fleshed out solution. Vegas frankly will be out far less money that with other ideas presented if it fails and for that 35 million they get another Vegas attraction.Quote from: wraper on May 31, 2021, 05:54:01 am

author: boffin
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 12, 2021, 03:22:07 am
content: QuoteOf course what they fail to mention is that number is total passenger journies.Elon Measures from East to Central, Central to West, West to Central, Central to East as '4 journeys'.In reality, that's only 1100 pphpd (passengers per hour per direction), which is what typical metro subways [25k - 50k pphpd] are measured in.Now if only there were a way to scale up the number of passengers to 25,000 pphpd and make it driverlessOh wait, we did that back in 1986

author: boffin
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 12, 2021, 03:42:34 am
content: Also the fanboys that are saying "But it will eventually do 120mph"Science & Math:120mph = 53m/s = let's call that 50m/s for simplicity0 to 50m/s in let's say 10 seconds (which is really fast), or an acceleration of 5m/s² (½G) - very uncomfortable as a passenger, and impossible if you're sitting sidewaysDistance traveled during 0 to 50m/s = ½at² = 0.5 * 5 * 10 * 10 = 250mThe tunnel is about 650m between stations, so that's10 seconds ½G accel (250m)3 seconds at top speed (150m)10 seconds ½G deceleration (250m)

author: boffin
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 12, 2021, 04:12:23 am
content: Quote from: wizard69 on June 01, 2021, 02:45:14 am1. It's not really on the strip, nor is it open to the public. It connects the East and  West parts of the convention centre.2. It would do nothing to help traffic, compared to one more lane on LVB or I153. It was easy to dig a short tunnel, which opens to the world on each end (which removed most of the safety/fire requirements). Building a tunnel with more than one intermediate stop will suddenly run into much much bigger civil engineering challenges.4. The stations aren't air conditioned (E and W are open to the outside, centre is just underground).5. No part of the convention centre is "pretty".6. The fire safety aspects of the tunnel are stupid, and I'm sure every tunnel engineer from a country with real metros and real rail tunnels are laughing (a lot). Elon's solution is "Drivers are trained to back up"7. It's an underground lane of traffic. Tunnel boring machines aren't new. People driving [even electric] vehicles isn't new.Oh, and as I've mentioned in another post, that 4400 number is actually 4x the normal pphpd number used to measure regular transit systems.

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 12, 2021, 06:45:19 am
content: Quote from: boffin on June 12, 2021, 03:42:34 amFor sceptics, 120 mph is a figure for longer tunnels. At no point of time there was any claim that existing segment will operate at 120 mph. So all you math does is fighting a straw man.QuoteIsn't the number 2 times too high?

author: boffin
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 12, 2021, 07:35:07 am
content: Quote from: wraper on June 12, 2021, 06:45:19 amNo, the fan boys are still saying 120mph; even Vegas press are touting 155mph still for 'the loop' at the LVCVA.The LVCVA itself said:"...The innovative transportation system will allow convention attendees to be whisked across the LVCC’s 200-acre campus in just over one minute -- free of charge -- in all-electric Tesla vehicles capable of holding between 3 and 16 people..."https://press.lvcva.com/Events/las-vegas-convention-center-makes-history-as-elon-musk-s-the-boring-company-begins-tunneling-the-des/s/a313340f-1f36-4dd7-a53b-76c399215586"Just over a minute" to: start, accelerate, decelerate, slow to 15, accelerate, decelerate, stop, for 8/10ths of a mile (1.3km); and that's assuming not stopping in the middle. If you watch people's videos of this actually with real traffic from this week, you can already see the central station is a bottleneck, and cars waiting in the tunnel to enter.To give you another idea of how dumb it is, there are crosswalks, blocking the loop traffic to get into the south and west stations; yes the loop comes to a complete stop when someone wants to get into the area where you board and disembark his rolling advertising.QuoteNo, he's counting A-B and B-C simultaneously in each direction.Firstly transit systems are not measured from each station, but the line as a whole (so that's 2x)Secondly, transit systems are measured per direction. (that's another 2x).If I tried an 'elon math' on one of our local transit system lines (Expo Line, 19 stations/18 segments, 500 person trains leaving every 90 seconds/40 tph, in both directions)you'd get 720,000 people per hour (500 * 18 * 40 * 2)In reality, the number (in civil engineering pphpd) is 500*40, or 20,000 pphpdDid I mention our local system is driverless and has been for 35 years?

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 12, 2021, 07:43:13 am
content: Quote from: boffin on June 12, 2021, 07:35:07 amI don't think it's true. You take a ride to where you want, there are no intermediate stops. So it can be A to B, B to C or A to C.

author: boffin
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 12, 2021, 07:56:55 am
content: Quote from: wraper on June 12, 2021, 07:43:13 amA-C passes through B, it's not a triangle.Let's show it another way. Station B, in the middle, capacity 5 cars in any directioncar unload/load time = 45 seconds (rough guess)car every 9 seconds, 400 cars/hour3 people per car = 1200 persons/hour;which is oddly close to my 1100 number.Face it, you don't want to hear it, but in this case Elon has sold them snake oil.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 12, 2021, 06:55:50 pm
content: I guess most people don't get that it is a demonstrator. Not something that is actually useful. However, having a public transport system which is able to transport people more directly from A to C without going through B can be a major improvement in time. The reality is that underground transport systems can easely be outperformed using a simple bicycle (let alone an electric bicycle). The effective speed of underground public transport is really low. In that perspective Tesla's Vegas loop is an interesting idea but obviously it needs lots of improvement.

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 13, 2021, 09:43:08 am
content: Quote from: boffin on June 12, 2021, 07:56:55 amBased on what info do you assume that 4400 people per hour figure does not include a significant number (like a half) of A to C and C to A rides? And all rides are from/to B.

author: sandalcandal
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 13, 2021, 01:28:34 pm
content: Quote from: boffin on June 12, 2021, 07:35:07 amWho now? Not anyone here. I don't know where you're seeing that so I can only guess you're just using a strawman.As I posted earlier in the thread, from thesame source(different newer article) as your quote:Quote from: sandalcandal on April 26, 2021, 04:26:49 pmEdit2: Hell, if you even thought about the numbers you are posting you would see that "just over a minute" works out in line with the publicised speed.Quote from:https://www.boringcompany.com/lvccEdit: Most of your points and calculations have also already been covered in the first page of this thread so please read those first. Also please provide a source for the fact "pphpd is being measured falsely" because it seems you have only convinced yourself using made up numbers.

author: sandalcandal
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 13, 2021, 01:52:34 pm
content: Quote from: boffin on June 12, 2021, 07:35:07 amQuote from: boffin on June 12, 2021, 07:56:55 amAre you really going to contradict your own information so hard to try prove a point?Also if you read any of the other posts you'd know if The Boring Company does not meet contract requirements then LVCVA is barely paying anything. Particularly if you compare to similar project costs in the locality. Even for a "technology demonstrator" it has good value for money. LVCVA would be fools for not going with TBC.

author: boffin
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 13, 2021, 11:09:41 pm
content: Quote from: sandalcandal on June 13, 2021, 01:52:34 pmyep, you're quite right, the 16 people was pure undelivered BS from Elon.The 3 number I used is what is actually happening.But if you go back in the press releases we have- just over a minute- two minutesIn reality it's a tad over 3 minutes (5:50 for a loop without stopping)https://youtu.be/-RPMt_FS-s8?t=284As for your last statement, this is where the LVCVA may be wily like a fox. It's entirely possible they knew full well Elon couldnt deliver the pph, and chose this system for exactly that reason, realizing they could get most of what they wanted, for basically nothing. if the Boring company walk away from this (which wouldn't surprise me if they do), LVCVA can just put a moving walkway in there

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 14, 2021, 07:24:48 am
content: Quote from: boffin on June 13, 2021, 11:09:41 pmLMAO, it was already tested and exceeded the capacity required in the contract, so your statement is lame. Neither pphpd was in the contract, neither it's directly comparable with the tested figure.

author: sandalcandal
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 14, 2021, 10:17:46 am
content: Quote from: boffin on June 13, 2021, 11:09:41 pmUndeliveredyet. If there's anything you can be reasonably sceptical of it's if or how the 16 person capacity can be delivered. If you compare to other suggestions and you just look at the available possibilities, even if it's not aTeslaminibus, any electric minibus solution could be easily implemented for this that can carry at least 16 people comfortably, particularly considering limited requirements of driving on a small track at limited speed not on a public roads. If you even use an in-between number instead of the absolute minimum, the "advertised" value is easily achieved. Again, just reiterating what I've previously said since you don't seem to be bothered reading what was previously written.Quote from: boffin on June 13, 2021, 11:09:41 pmBut also including looping around and stopping in the middle. If you actually just look at the time to travel from one end to the other1:45-4:15 that's 2 and a half minutes. Also if you look at this the actual original video instead of that bullshit artist's time warped video you'll see just how slow and leisurely it goes to manage that pace.In so far as it being some sort of a misleading scam the difference of 1 single minute considering the likely variability of other factors in the wholistic system (e.g. boarding and unboarding) it's hardly a significant error even if it's "25%" If this were a 20 minute journey that much % error would be significant...but it's not. It's a 2 minute journey with +/-30 second error.Quote from: boffin on June 13, 2021, 11:09:41 pmAgain if you want to think about how much of a "scam" it is then you need to consider it in relation to the other proposals that were being tabled for LVCVA's need.The alternative was an above ground system being quoted forx4.5the cost! The original planned project was $215M for which Tesla has provided a "superior" alternative for only $47M.Seriously, where is the scamIf you're angry about public infrastructure projects being over priced then I'm with you but this is definitely not one of them.I've said it many times before. I can't see the logic people are applying to come to the conclusion these "Elon Projects" are a scam. It seems more like people seeing a project with Elon Musk some how connected first then trying to find reasons it is a scam after and using dodgy shit videos from people like "Common Seppo" to try justify their opinions;even going so far as to use a "debunking" of some random, unofficial, fan video as a point against the technology.I'm not saying Elon Musk or the projects run by his companies are perfect and flawless, there are loads of fanatic irrational fanboys (outside this forum) but there's just so muchintellectual dishonestytryingto discredit these projects in discussions on this forum I can't ignore it.You still haven't provided "factual" evidence of how system capacity is being measured.

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 14, 2021, 11:26:10 am
content: Quote from: nctnico on June 12, 2021, 06:55:50 pmSo, I looked up the speed of subway that I was taking on the daily basis in Budapest. The effective speed (with stops) is 32 Km/h. The average cycling speed 12.4 KM/h in the Netherlands. I would ignore the fact, that its the question of time when you end up in a hospital for using the bike in that city.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 14, 2021, 03:28:43 pm
content: Quote from: tszaboo on June 14, 2021, 11:26:10 amWhat you are overlooking is that public transport always takes a detour and a bicycle goes from A to B directly. Travelling at 32km/h doesn't do you any good when you are going in the wrong direction.

author: boffin
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 15, 2021, 03:45:42 am
content: Station Capacity Calculation - aka "Why the 4400 number cannot be pphpd"First, what is pphpd?passengers per hour per direction is the standard measure of transit systems, so when you see "XXXX Metro carries 25,000/hour" that's the number they're usingexamples:Expo Line (Vancouver, Canada): 25,000 pphpdL1 New York: 36,000 pphpdCentral Line (London UK): 32,550 (35 trains/hour * 930/train)VEGAS LOOPWhat we can assume:40 second load/unload (cars have seatbelts, every ride I've seen people buckle up)3 persons/vehicleWest and South stations:8 load/unload bays10 sec/minute lost to pedestrians crossing the loop (seriously - check out the attached image)... 3000 operational seconds /hour-> car leaves every 5 seconds (40 seconds / 8 bays)-> 600 cars/hr (3000 / 5)carrying 3 people each=1800 people per hour (not anywhere near 4400)Central station:5 load/unload bays-> car leaves every 8 seconds-> 450 cars/hourcarrying 3 people each=1350 people per hour (also not 4400)--------------------------------And I still stand by my "a tad over 3 minutes"Boffin: "a tad over 3 minutes" (assumed some load/unload time)Demo Video: 2m39s with no allowance for stopping (1m38s - 4m27)LVCVA (2019): "just over one minute"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/las-vegas-convention-center-makes-history-as-elon-musks-the-boring-company-begins-tunneling-the-destinations-first-underground-people-mover-300959530.htmlLVCVA (2020): "under two minutes"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/development-of-elon-musks-innovative-underground-transportation-system-achieves-milestone-301059887.htmlLVCVA (2021): "just under two minutes"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/first-look-inside-elon-musks-underground-transportation-system-beneath-the-las-vegas-convention-center-301266042.htmlReality (from world of concrete - last week)Video:depart west station: 5:41arr south station: 8:54Total Time 3m 23s-------------------------------And the Math says...Theorhetical fastest @ 44mphWhat we know:LVCVA: "Doing 40mph"LVCVA: "10mph through the central station".'speed zone' in the middle of 10mph (5m/s) is about 80m long'speed zone' approaching the end station of a similar distance (note there's a 90 degree corner exiting one end, nasty)total tunnel distance: 1350m (0.85mi) - (not 1.7mi, that's counting both tunnels)What we can assume:Let's give them the benefit of the doubt, and assume 20m/s and 5m/s (about 10% more than their claim, but makes the math easier)Acelleration: 2m/s² (brisk, not back snapping)STARTaccel: 0-20m/s @ 2m/s² for 10 seconds = 100m (ut + ½at²)steady: 20m/s for 20 seconds = 400mCENTRAL STATION: SLOW TO 5M/Sdecel: 20-5m/s @ -2m/s² for 7½ seconds = 94msteady: 5m/s for 16 seconds = 80mCENTRAL STATION: SPEED UP AGAINaccel: 5-20m/s @ 2m/s² for 7½ seconds = 94msteady: 20m/s for 20 seconds = 400mWEST STATION: SLOW TO ENTER STATIONdecel: 20-5m/s @ -2m/s² for 7½ seconds = 94msteady: 5m/s for 16 seconds = 80m (approach)decel: 5-0m/s @ -2m/s² for 2½ seconds = 6mENDtime 107s absolutely best caseassuming best case acceleration/deceleration, max speed maintained as long as possible, no impeding merge traffic, and no impeding pedestrian traffic (sad I have to add that 3rd one)<sigh> I beginning to feel that people learned nothing from Solar Roadways and Batteriser

author: sandalcandal
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 15, 2021, 10:45:49 am
content: Good on you for doing the maths Boffin but I think you're still missing my points here.4400 according to reasonable calculations as I said before cannot be met if you assume only 3 to 4 people per vehicle. I think you've taken this to mean the 4400 number is coming from counting journeys rather than a pphpd. My idea was that they are using "real" current numbers and extrapolating capacity on when the vehicles are capable of carrying 16 people instead.107sfor fastest possible most aggressive driving versus159sreal demonstration video. I mean you did the calculation yourself using "real" physically achievable values and you are getting a "just under 2 minutes" number. What's the problem? It is unreasonable for them to have done a similar calculation and used that as an estimated/advertised result? This is hardly on the level of Solar Roadways and Batteriser.Edit: This is also still notfactualevidence of how system capacity is being measured and marked as achieved. This isspeculationbased on assumptions and guess work which isn't unreasonable but still not "factual". Again my guess is that they are using performance values of the current system and extrapolating to when vehicle capacity is increased. AFAIK there was been no detailed reports released on how theyactuallydetermined the "4400 passengers per hour" target has been reached. All we have is speculations which have done little to rule out the ability of the system meet performance targets.Again, I think we will see trip times taking >2min total but extrapolations (or actual achievement) using higher capacity vehicles.

author: boffin
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 15, 2021, 04:19:39 pm
content: Quote from: sandalcandal on June 15, 2021, 10:45:49 amJust a reminder the 159 second trip time is a vehicle thatDOES NOT STOP.In order to achieve the magic under 3m (2m39s), they will have people leaping in and out of moving vehicles ?The lack of critical thinking here is EXACTLY on the level of Solar Roadways and Batteriser

author: fourfathom
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 15, 2021, 04:57:40 pm
content: I think the lack of critical thinking is to look at this as anything other than an amusement park ride. This is *LAS VEGAS*, where people build pyramids and Eiffel Tower replicas. The passengers don't care about how many seconds they save, they just want a fun ride from the convention to the casino, then to the show. The project is a success if it brings in more customers and they gamble away more money.

author: boffin
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 16, 2021, 12:06:12 am
content: Quote from: fourfathom on June 15, 2021, 04:57:40 pmWell done, jumping in and not even understanding where this is.People wont use this for a 'fun ride', not to the casino, nor to the show.This is *not* open to the average Las Vegas visitor. This is a private connection between two sections of the Las Vegas convention centre, that are separated by Paradise Road, a major 6-lane north-south corridor running parallel, and just east of the 'strip'.

author: fourfathom
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 16, 2021, 12:37:07 am
content: Quote from: boffin on June 16, 2021, 12:06:12 amYou may be right, but the Las Vegas Convention Center??? You mean the Las Vegas Convention Center where CES and so many other trade show events take place? Where I used to go annually for COMDEX (before that one shut down)? These trade shows bring in huge crowds, and OK, I guess the route doesn't hit the casinos, but the Loop is still there to encourage the trade-show visitors to come to Las Vegas. They go to the casinos, shows, strip-clubs, restaurants, hotels, etc, when the trade show lets out for the day. So what it it's not the most efficient people-mover?

author: boffin
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 16, 2021, 05:45:17 am
content: Quote from: fourfathom on June 16, 2021, 12:37:07 amif you used to go to Comdex, you may remember the Riviera hotel. The west hall of the convention center now occupies that space; and the tunnel goes under Paradise to connect it to the main hall.Comdex's history is kind of interesting, and actually for a good chunk of Comdex's life, it actually was 100% designed to avoid the convention center, and only use hotel convention space. Owner of Comdex (Sheldon Adelson), was making so much money out of Comdex, and his only significant expense was convention space, so he had the idea "I know, I'll build a giant convention center myself so I don't have to pay LVCVA...", so he bought the Las Vegas Sands hotel (which had a big property), and built the Sands convention center (which is where Comdex was in the mid 90s). He then sold Comdex (the trade show) to Softbank, and used the money to fund knocking down the Sands and build the Venetian hotel (and attach it to their existing Sands convention center). It's literally the hotel Comdex built.Anyway, no one goes to the convention center (at least I would hope) so they can say "Hey, I rode in a car in a tunnel" (you can get that just being long-hauled out of McCarran airport)What they really go to the convention center for is the cheap rate Wifi (this is from world of concrete last week)

author: boffin
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 24, 2021, 04:27:56 pm
content: Quote from: wraper on May 31, 2021, 05:54:01 amYou didn't read what I said. I never said it couldn't carry 4400 passengers an hour. I said the way they measure that is a very very different number than traditional transit systems, and represents only 1100 pphpd (which is what traditional systems measure in). For example our local expo line is 25,000 pphpd.

author: boffin
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 24, 2021, 04:33:04 pm
content: Archive.org is awesome;https://web.archive.org/web/20200730050640/https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloopSome of the highlights fromthe official LVCC Loop websitelast summerThe same trip on LVCC Loop will take approximately 1 minute. (reality over 3 minutes)autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) at up to 155 miles per hour (reality, 40 mph, not autonomous)transport up to 16 passengers with both sitting and standing room (reality, 3 people per car)Operation is unaffected by weather (reality, two of the three stations are outdoors)

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 24, 2021, 05:36:36 pm
content: Quote from: boffin on June 24, 2021, 04:27:56 pmWhat is your problem? What matters is that it exceeds what's written in the contract. pphpd you talk about all over the place is irrelevant.