The chip shortage is TI's fault! - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: jrs45
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: December 13, 2021, 02:48:22 pm
content: At least according to this report:https://www.windowscentral.com/global-chip-shortage-cause-found-it-boils-down-one-company

author: rea5245
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: December 13, 2021, 02:50:33 pm
content: And yet 99/4As are plentiful on eBay.

author: NorthGuy
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 13, 2021, 03:53:58 pm
content: Quote from: jrs45 on December 13, 2021, 02:48:22 pmBullshit

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 13, 2021, 03:55:58 pm
content: I'm guessing and speculating here.But I suspect the problem would be, that many of these very cheap (in quantity), bread and butter, ICs, were designed a very long time ago. Which means they use a very old process to get made.Probably many of the people who originally designed the chips, process technology and other skills have long since retired and/or left the company and/or disappeared for other reasons.They probably don't get much money (profit) per chip and new/modern IC production has become horrifically expensive.So, they would have limited options, to suddenly massively ramp up production.Also, the potentially ancient, long obsolete machinery (process), they may be using. Means that they can't quickly go out and just buy new machines etc.The huge potential competition from China, also probably doesn't help them, and maybe limiting their ability to profit from operations.tl;drThey were probably coasting along, with limited budget, expertise and very old equipment. So it is difficult to overnight, massively ramp up production.

author: RoGeorge
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 13, 2021, 04:09:22 pm
content: Quote from:https://www.windowscentral.com/global-chip-shortage-cause-found-it-boils-down-one-companyI'll call bullshit on those arguments.

author: ataradov
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 13, 2021, 05:18:17 pm
content: Imagine being so powerful as a company that you alone can stop the whole world IC supply.Nobody is going to ramp up a production capacity just to satisfy short-term demand. What are you going to do with that capacity after the demand is back to normal?

author: Mangozac
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: December 13, 2021, 09:57:44 pm
content: Quote from: ataradov on December 13, 2021, 05:18:17 pmThis is the root issue nobody seems to understand. This and the magnitude of the cost it takes to set up a new fab.

author: ogden
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 13, 2021, 10:39:01 pm
content: Quote from: RoGeorge on December 13, 2021, 04:09:22 pmRight. That article is just cheap "clickbait journalism". Demand spike and resulting hoarding is global phenomenon.

author: dkonigs
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: December 18, 2021, 05:07:38 pm
content: And the article doesn't actually offer any more details than the brief excerpts that have been quoted here.Sounds like its coming from the same people who think this only affects "cars and graphics cards" as cited in the article, and often repeated elsewhere.I'm pretty sure people who use no parts from TI are still having a helluva time sourcing components... including components for which TI actually does not make an equivalent.

author: AndyC_772
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 18, 2021, 05:19:01 pm
content: My experience over the last 6 months or so is that TI parts are considerably easier to get hold of than many others.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 18, 2021, 05:53:54 pm
content: I wish there was a single word to describe the concept, I'm about to detail, but if there is, I don't know what to put here.Hypothetically speaking:There is plenty of toilet paper, everywhere, and 100% absolutely no problem with toilet paper supplies.But some news source(s), says there is a massive shortage of toilet paper, both now, and imminently in the near future. They then show a shop shelf, for toilet paper, which is completely empty, and some peoples shopping trolleys, stacked to the brim, with toilet paper. E.g. Due to an upcoming virus.The toilet paper manufacture's, are perhaps expecting one pack (big or small) of toilet paper rolls, to be bought, at a rate of one every couple of months (very approx).But suddenly, everyone rushes out in panic and buys x20 times the usual amount of toilet rolls. Soon there really is a shortage of toilet paper.. Then even more people panic about buying it.So, the problem gets worse and worse.The toilet roll suppliers, can perhaps only increase production by 10% to 20% or so, as it is often made by massive, expensive toilet roll machines/factories.So, I wonder how much of this current 'chip shortage', is due to people buying chips (just in case), they need them for production, spares, the future, prototypes, and other reasons. In some cases, maybe only buying them in the hope of selling them for considerably more in the future.Which would then put immense pressure on the limited chip production capabilities, around the world.Rather than a real chip shortage, if people just bought what they need (i.e. what they would have bought, before any virus, and without worrying about possible chip shortages), when they need it. Also, no purchases for speculation reasons, for selling in the future (unless the people did it BEFORE the current chip shortage).Then maybe, there would have been much less of a problem and/or no chip shortage at all.With the possible exception of parts needed for virus detection (self test kits), some items which consumers have recently bought in huge quantities, such as laptops, monitors and stuff, because of commonly working from home.

author: dkonigs
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: December 18, 2021, 06:49:00 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on December 18, 2021, 05:53:54 pmIts my understanding that the shortage started by the auto industry jerking around chip manufacturers on certain components, which led to those specific components going out of stock for anyone who gets them as a side-effect of said production. But then, in the frantic rush to deal with the fallout, I think everyone did exactly what you said... which made the whole situation 100x worse and now it affects everything and everyone.Quote from: MK14 on December 18, 2021, 05:53:54 pmThe problem here is that we're now in a bit of a prisoner's dilemma. If everyone woke up tomorrow and did this, the problem would go away. But if only a few people did this, then they get screwed even worse by those who continue to horde.

author: NorthGuy
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 18, 2021, 07:32:27 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on December 18, 2021, 05:53:54 pmTrillions of dollars printed out of thin air all around the world, which increases demand. At the same time, production is hindered by anti-COVID measures, which decreases supply. Normally, prices would go up decreasing current demand and stimulating future production. But this doesn't really happen. Thus we get shortages instead of inflation.Given enough time this all should settle somehow, until then there will be shortages, inflation, rationing, or some sort of combination of these.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 18, 2021, 08:43:29 pm
content: Quote from: dkonigs on December 18, 2021, 06:49:00 pmWe are in agreement. Also, even if there is the odd (final product, such as cars) shortage or delay, if people would just patiently wait for stuff, rather than going for alternatives and/or potentially jacking up the prices or other market upsets. We would have a much more stable situation.Even if it is lots of blame because of the car industry for all of this. I wouldn't be annoyed with them. Because we suddenly had this unexpected virus situation, taking almost everyone by surprise. Hence the car industry, just adjusted their buying behavior, on what their best predictions would be, for the coming future of the car market.Quote from: NorthGuy on December 18, 2021, 07:32:27 pmAgreed. I'm worried, that it is going to take years, for things to really somewhat get back to normal.I.e. Even towards the end of 2022, I expect prices to be somewhat raised, and some shortages, to still be in existence.We have had a much smaller version of the same thing in the Electronics and computer industries. E.g. RAM chip shortages, because of a massive fire at some chip related factories, or hard disk manufacture being hugely disrupted because of big flooding in Thailand, where at the time, most hard disks were made.So for a year or few, we had massively high hard disk prices, or memory DIMM/chip prices, and I think other components at other times. Such as (if I remember correctly), some kind/types of capacitor shortages, over the last 20 or 30 years.

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 18, 2021, 09:35:47 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on December 18, 2021, 05:53:54 pmNot a single word, but close enough: "Arunon X", as in "A run on the bank" or "A run on toilet paper".

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 18, 2021, 09:50:11 pm
content: Quote from: Cerebus on December 18, 2021, 09:35:47 pmThanks!So, a good (bad) recent example, just in the UK (fortunately), was ...A run on Petrol(gasoline) supplies, at UK fuel stations. Strongly rumored to be (mostly, excepting lorry driver shortages), not because of any (at least) UK wide shortages (except maybe some simple limited/slight local shortages, here and there).Arguably caused by news media hysteria/frenzy, over non-stories (substantially non-existent fuel shortages, except maybe a queue at a very limited number of petrol stations, for a brief period of time, until the news got hold of it).

author: Circlotron
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 18, 2021, 10:14:38 pm
content: Quote from:https://www.windowscentral.com/global-chip-shortage-cause-found-it-boils-down-one-companyNo. The fundamental problem is everybody wanting to buy more chips. TI’s alleged inability to increase production is a factor in the problem, but the shortage is caused by people trying to buy more than is available.

author: SilverSolder
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 18, 2021, 10:17:52 pm
content: Quote from: Circlotron on December 18, 2021, 10:14:38 pmI simply don't get that... Many (most?) companies are blaming chip shortages for their sales being down - but if their sales are down... who's using the chips?

author: ataradov
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 18, 2021, 10:20:12 pm
content: Quote from: SilverSolder on December 18, 2021, 10:17:52 pmCompanies that don't complain about shortages. You just don't hear from them.A LOT of chips over the past couple years were redirected into medical equipment. And unlike car makers, not only they have not cancelled any orders, they placed more orders early on. Not those orders are being fulfilled now.

author: SilverSolder
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 19, 2021, 12:03:34 am
content: Quote from: ataradov on December 18, 2021, 10:20:12 pmThe Health care technology sector is completely dwarfed by the Automotive sector - so even if they experienced very high growth, it doesn't explain where the chips are going...

author: RoGeorge
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 19, 2021, 12:49:59 am
content: Quote from: SilverSolder on December 18, 2021, 10:17:52 pmThat's exactly what worries me the most.- One reason could be panic-buy and stock piling/hoarding components.- The next reason would be that there's a new player consuming most of the electronic parts, for example to build a massive army of AI weapons, a global network of mandatory surveillance, etc.I don't believe in conspiracies, but I also can not find any reasonable explanation for what happened with the world in the last 2 years. It looks like we are cornering ourselves into a dead-end situation with each day.

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 19, 2021, 01:30:06 am
content: Quote from: RoGeorge on December 19, 2021, 12:49:59 amI see no reason why it couldn't be something as simple as as the (accidentally) manufactured petrol shortage in the UK a few months back. For those who don't know the story, after all it was a small British storm-in-a-teacup so I don't expect all the world to know it, here's what happened:One of the petrol companies, BP, had a very limited, short term, problem with making deliveries in one part of the country. The basic problem was a shortage of HGV drivers to actually deliver the fuel. As mitigation they decided to close a handful of petrol stations for a few days to allow them to ensure that they would have full stocks at petrol stations in critical places.The national media reported this rather breathlessly, making a mountain out of a molehill, and failing to stress both the limited area and the limited number of stations involved. The same idiots who stripped the stores of toilet paper, canned tomatoes and pasta back at the beginning of the pandemic then all rushed out to fill their tanks and any vessel that they could fill with petrol or diesel. Within a day or two petrol stations that under normal circumstances would have had perfectly adequate stocks of fuel ran dry. For the next 3 weeks to a month there were continued shortages, and continued long queues to buy fuel.Had the excess unnecessary demand not been applied everything would have carried on as normal - the balance of the normal 'pipeline' scheduling fuel deliveries was totally unbalanced by the spike in demand. An artificial shortage that took 24 hours to create took thirty times as long to clear up. Anyone who has had to deal with a control loop that is a bit close to the ragged edge will recognise what was happening here when it gets hit with a out of bound input, goes off the rails, and then takes ages to get back into a controlled state.I see no reason that the same logic doesn't apply to the semiconductor supply pipeline. There were genuine capacity problems caused by lockdowns, staff shortages and the like in the early phase of the pandemic. If everybody had sat back and assumed "business as usual" there might have been a hiccup or two with some parts, but by and large we'd probably have got by. But some people went panic buying, that led to artificially created shortages, other calmer people found that stocks of parts that they needed were disappearing fast and bought stock either earlier or in greater quantity than they normally would have, inventories bottomed out.Now the 'pipeline' for semiconductors is both longer and much more complex than that for petrol or toilet paper. Is it any surprise that the 'semiconductor pipeline control loop' is taking longer to come back under control than those for petrol or toilet paper?

author: David Hess
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 19, 2021, 01:34:00 am
content: Quote from: MK14 on December 13, 2021, 03:55:58 pmThe usual problem is that consolidation of suppliers causes the raw materials, like wafers, chemicals, and reticles for the old process to become discontinued or unavailable. One semiconductor company may even purchase a critical supplier for a competitor with this in mind.When this happens, the old chip has to be redesigned to be manufactured on an available and usually newer process, which as you point out may be very difficult if nobody is qualified to do so.Quote from: NorthGuy on December 18, 2021, 07:32:27 pmShortages are just as much a sign of inflation as rising prices. There is no requirement that prices rise for there to be inflation.

author: cliffyk
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: December 19, 2021, 02:37:04 am
content: Why is it that only the automotive industry is having this problem? I smell the stench of politics in this whole matter...

author: ataradov
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 19, 2021, 02:41:14 am
content: Quote from: cliffyk on December 19, 2021, 02:37:04 amNot only automotive. Other industries can relatively easily switch to a different device if there is stock. I help customers like this on a regular basis. The amount of support effort that goes into making the same thing with a different device went up in the last year. Automotive designs require a lot of certification, so for them switching a device means at least a year of extra work.

author: SilverSolder
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 19, 2021, 02:48:32 am
content: Quote from: cliffyk on December 19, 2021, 02:37:04 amThe explanations we are hearing simply don't pass the basic smell test.When the two elephants in the room are having trouble playing nice (USA & China), everyone else gets trampled as well...

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 19, 2021, 03:10:33 am
content: Quote from: cliffyk on December 19, 2021, 02:37:04 amIt's not just automotive. I've been waiting since April for Keysight to make my giveaway scope from Dave's raffle, they have had supply problems across the board according to Daniel at Keysight. Anyone who has tried to buy STM32 processors this year has had problems and those most definitely are not an automotive only item. I've had problems getting hold of all sorts of parts and ironically I've often had to upgrade to automotive qualified parts rather than 'vanilla' parts of the same values and ratings to find parts with stock available. So, not just automotive, it's across the board

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 19, 2021, 08:15:33 am
content: Quote from: SilverSolder on December 18, 2021, 10:17:52 pmThe issue, is, if you can buy 99% of the BOM, than you will start hoarding 99% of the BOM lines, and you still cannot ship a product, because it is missing parts of the circuit, which is needed it to work. Imagine a PC motherboard, which doesn't have power supply for the BIOS chip.I don't think we can single out TI as the only culprit, but I imagine, TI being problematic for many companies now. It is for me.

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 19, 2021, 02:33:06 pm
content: Quote from: tszaboo on December 19, 2021, 08:15:33 amI've had issues with digital and linear semiconductor parts from ST, Lattice, Analog, SMD 1N4148 diodes from anyone and passives from just about everybody; and that's just in the last three months. So far the only product category that hasn't given me any problems is 74 series SSI logic. Again ironically, I've had some success switching to TI analogue parts from Analog ones that I couldn't get (e.g. LT1363 -> LM7171).I've only been looking for parts in prototyping/R&D quantities so I'm relatively lucky - I just need handfuls and can accept increased prices with little consequences. It still means that I've cut back on things and bought cut tape for parts that I'd normally buy reels of - I'm not spending £69 (£0.023 each) for a reel of surface mount 1N4148 equivalents. The fact that I can get a reel of through hole 1N4148s for £22 (£0.011 each) for which there isn't much demand and there are still decent stocks available is proof that there are real problems. I feel sorry for anyone trying to buy existing BOMs in production quantities at the moment, it must be hell and a lot of people will be worrying what happens to their jobs if they can't get product out of the door.If people want to look for a conspiracy - and from the messages here some seem to want to - why did that originally cited article single out TI and not the dozen other big vendors with supply issues? Was someone trying to manipulate share prices? Singling out a vendor for bad press could be a prelude to short selling. It has at least as much credibility as hand waving claims of "politics" where trashing supply chains and a significant slice of the world's economy to make political capital seems rather self defeating - not that politicians are beyond cutting of their noses to spite their faces.

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 19, 2021, 07:05:07 pm
content: Quote from: Cerebus on December 19, 2021, 02:33:06 pmFrom what I just heard, TI is not on good terms with their vendors, and they are rather just uploading the parts into their webshop, which is in turn bought by Chinese hoarders. It starts to check out. I told my boss, there isn't actually a supply issue, as there are ~30K in stock from the parts that we need, but all of them is at winsource electronics and other shady scalpels in china. I asked TI, if I can reserve the parts - no, they will be in the webshop "sometime next month". I asked Arrow, if they can reserve the parts - Yes, December 2024. In the mean this is one way to sell parts, but I would rather have them at 2-3x their regular price from TI, than 30x the price from some shitty scammer with lots of money and questionable business practices from China.

author: NorthGuy
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 19, 2021, 07:25:04 pm
content: Quote from: tszaboo on December 19, 2021, 07:05:07 pmI don't think Winsource have any stock. After you place an order, they will just buy it for you. Or, if they can't, they will cancel your order.

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 19, 2021, 08:18:19 pm
content: Quote from: NorthGuy on December 19, 2021, 07:25:04 pmWe asked for photo of the reel. But yeah, some of those suppliers on octopart will list each other's stock.

author: NorthGuy
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 19, 2021, 11:07:33 pm
content: Quote from: tszaboo on December 19, 2021, 08:18:19 pm... and share photos of the same reel

author: rsjsouza
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 20, 2021, 07:07:17 pm
content: Quote from: Cerebus on December 19, 2021, 01:30:06 amThis. This is another powerful fuel for the various crisis that we have been living. Case in point: the poorly written article that is the subject of this thread.

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 20, 2021, 07:31:58 pm
content: Quote from: rsjsouza on December 20, 2021, 07:07:17 pmBack when we had 15 minutes of TV news two or three times every day, and similar on Radio this wasn't a problem. "Several petrol stations in a small part of the country close temporarily. Supplier confirms that there are adequate national supplies of petrol and it's just down to a local driver shortage." wouldn't make it to the national news. Now that the TV news has 24 hours a day to fill, every day, stuff that was once too trivial to report except in thelocalnewspaper getsnationalcoverage. Add web coverage, clickbait headlines and 'engagement' as the metric of choice and you've a recipe for trouble.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 20, 2021, 08:28:24 pm
content: Quote from: rsjsouza on December 20, 2021, 07:07:17 pmIf you check their source, it also has articles, which contradict, the report. I can't read their sources reports (apart from tiny summaries), because it seems to be pay-walled.A few weeks, before, they were saying:QuoteQuotehttps://www.digitimes.com/news/a20211007PD212.htmlAlso, TI was saying, in another of their reports, around one week after blaming TI for shortages:QuoteQuotehttps://www.digitimes.com/news/a20211118PR200.htmlSo, maybe there is something fishy about the OP's original article and/or who is really saying stuff, how reliable are their opinions, and especially what are the motivations for the article(s).E.g. If it is because ofQuotethen it could be just clickbait.Also, does anyone want to harm TI and/or hurt their planned expansion plans ?I'd prefer it, if the information, came from reliable, trustworthy sources, who are not going to gain or lose, significant financial amounts. When reporting the (none opinionated) truth.

author: thm_w
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 21, 2021, 12:24:45 am
content: Quote from: tszaboo on December 19, 2021, 07:05:07 pmWhat is the specific part? 30k may be a lot or it may be nothing in terms of volume.If you are supply chain then set up a script to poll the webshop and alert you immediately when it becomes available. Or better a fully automated purchase script. Check taobao too. Get on the phone with TI. etc.If you are not in supply chain, its not your problem to worry about.Winsource is a known scammer, but a lot of these shops are simply buying up old stock, production overrun, cancelled runs, etc. Stuff that was near worthless 2 years ago.

author: 48X24X48X
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: December 21, 2021, 06:14:01 am
content: It took me a while to shift my next course of action when the parts shortage kicks in. Initially, I was swapping in and out parts in the design but soon enough I have realized that you will never be able to have complete BOM unless you have the purchasing power to stack up everything. That is when I decided that maybe this is the best time to slow down and reflect (have been running my business non-stop for 11 years). Rather than complaining why company A is not ramping the IC production or why scalper is adding few thousand percent increment of part price, I think we all need to understand that while we all are bitching about all that, there are many that lost their lives while making the chips for us to use to make money in your business. As a Malaysian, we have some of the factory that makes IC like STM and Maxim and these factories weren't close at all despite the Covid was raging through the country and killing so many people. Read on thelink hereto understand why I think we need to pause whatever you are doing a bit for now and let the situation get better.

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: December 21, 2021, 01:28:59 pm
content: Quote from: thm_w on December 21, 2021, 12:24:45 amI'm not, but upper management is making it my problem with "you have to redesign ASAP because we only could buy this instead of this" projects.I think we botted TI's website. It is supposed to be someone else's problem. Especially, that 2 years ago the message was: "we have too much value in our stock, let's switch to just-in-time". Not great timing.