World needs a new power grid that won't fail in a solar storm  - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 07, 2018, 06:04:45 am
content: Did people realize we're just one big solar storm away from a huge global catastrophe because of the way power grids, solar storms and nuclear power plants interact?We almost learned this lesson the hard way on July 23, 2012Here is an excerpt froma NASA articleon the issue:QuoteThis problem - could be caused by a solar flare (a Coronal Mass Ejection) causing an electromagnetic pulse, leading to transformer loss - then knocking out the energy grid and then that causing multiple concurrent nuclear meltdowns- a situation which is not hypothetical, unfortunately..as the last part is what happened at Fukushima, to three reactors, all at the same time, when they lost power for cooling, and it was not able to be restored in time.It is called "loss of the ultimate heatsink" and the most recent casualties are those three reactors in the Fukushima Daiichi power plant I in Japan.https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12507/severe-space-weather-events-understanding-societal-and-economic-impacts-aand we can only guess at how frequently such storms- which could cause a global power failure, occur.. However, the Stereo A mission's findings, that there was such a CME in 2012- should raise red flags. Its exactly like the game of Russian Roulette, except the gun is the Sun and the Earth is vulnerable because of our nuclear power plants and grid design.(A man-detonated nuclear device set off in space, would also cause the same problem, but in a more limited space.)https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/21jan_severespaceweatherA nuclear bomb detonating in space could do it too..but only to countries with lots of power lines and especially nuclear power plants..How frequently do Carrington class CMEs occur? More frequently than we thought until recently when the data from a 2012 event was analyzed - showing that the CME on July 23rd was strong enough to have caused damage to our energy grid. We literally dodged a bullet.https://www.networkworld.com/article/3130650/security/president-obama-targets-nasty-space-weather-response-with-executive-order.htmlhttps://science.slashdot.org/story/16/10/13/2125249/president-obama-orders-government-to-plan-for-space-weather?sdsrc=relFor this reason we need to transition to a different system. Maybe one based on DC, and store and forward/bucket brigade technologies..http://www.businessinsider.com/solar-storm-effects-electronics-energy-grid-2016-3http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/finalBoulderPresentation042611%20%281%29.pdfOther accidents could cause similar problems, like a downstream dam failure, leaving a nuclear power plant high and dry.The fact that several reactors failed at Fukushima side by side means that this kind of disaster is inherent to the kinds of reactors used today and virtually unavoidable if not prepared for.http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-accident.aspxhttps://www.nap.edu/read/21874/chapter/5http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/AdditionalVolumes/P1710/Pub1710-TV1-Web.pdfhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011SW000734/fullhttp://fukushima.ans.org/report/accident-analysisWhat would be a more resilient energy grid? Can we think of a good solution, before its too late?Other resources can be found now at:http://sworm.gov/publications.htm2017 DocumentsPower Outage Incident Annex to the Response and Recovery Federal Interagency Operational Plans : Managing the Cascading Impacts from a Long-Term Power Outage2016 DocumentsExecutive Order -- Coordinating Efforts to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather EventsSWORM Subcommittee Charter2015 DocumentsNational Space Weather StrategySpace Weather Action PlanOSTP Fact Sheet: New Actions to Enhance National Space-Weather Preparedness

author: rs20
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 07, 2018, 06:25:16 am
content: Another classic cdev postQuote from: cdev on January 07, 2018, 06:04:45 amTsunamis aside, the control rods can be dropped in seconds. As long as the coolant pump's backup generators aren't washed away by the tsunami, a solar storm is not going to cause nuclear meltdowns, or at least that connection is ridiculously tangential at best. Ridiculously sensationalistic.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 07, 2018, 06:18:49 pm
content: Another link on the solar storm danger to the grid..http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/finalBoulderPresentation042611%20%281%29.pdfEU Contamination map:http://www.unscear.org/docs/JfigXI.pdf(Speaking of optimism biasWhat about small scale nuclear fusion?I find this interesting - although its still a long way from being a net producer of energy.One group of researchers looking at this possibility are based at the University of Sydney.Some of their papers are listed here:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inertial_electrostatic_confinementhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polywell#University_of_Sydney

author: mtdoc
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 07, 2018, 07:49:41 pm
content: In the same vein - the risk of a high altitude EMP being deployed to take out a country's power grid is very real. Countries like N. Korea do not need accurate or numerous ICBMs to devastate another country.Lest you think I am being alarmist,Harald Malmgren, who I follow on twitter, has recently discussed this underappreciated risk extensively. He served as advisor to president Kennedy when this risk (via USSR) was taken seriously, and believes that it is the real deterrent N.Korea possesses.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 07, 2018, 09:03:57 pm
content: That's exactly what I was getting at too. (N. Korea)Until we transition away from the grid setup we have now we'll be vulnerable to both that and solar storms.So, doubles the risk.Also, just in the last few years, due to the findings from that mission, they now estimate the risk of solar storms to be much higher than they did before Stereo A mission's findings.Its a stroke of luck that it was there when it happened. So we can't claim that we didn't have a warning, we did. For all we know they are common and the fact that we have not had a major CME hit us since 1859 is an anomaly. I think we would be wise to assume that.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 07, 2018, 09:15:36 pm
content: @rs20,Here is the problem, all the assumptions you just made about backup generators, etc. would likely apply if just one isolated incident was occurring, For example, they assume a short interruption in power. But what if this larger event was the cause which had most seriously impacted electrical equipment of all kinds, all around the world, (or nation)When multiple systems are interrelated we have a much worse potential situation.Each power station needs to have multiple redundant systems that can stand alone for extended periods of time, long enough not only to bring the reactor offline , enough to make it safely able to exist in an uncertain situation, ideally even a passively cooled state indefinitely.Ideally power for cooling should somehow be made independent of maintenance. Because people may flee. Also, there will likely be other demands on any working power generation systems. How do they say no?Because the whole world could be in a state of crisis from a single direct hit by a solar storm, not just one reactor.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 07, 2018, 10:01:45 pm
content: The world needs more autarky, we've become too interconnected. Local grids need to be able to be isolated and rebooted ... maybe have a per local grid emergency isolation/reboot test day a year, so you know it will actually work. Then all the hospitals etc can test their emergency generators, instead of putting that shit off indefinitely.On an unrelated note, I think any nation should also have an emergency plan to feed the population in absence of foreign inputs (so basically move a huge part of the population to the country side and do farming with manual labour again, also need to recycle human waste for fertilizer of course). If the country is too overpopulated to achieve it, then it's too overpopulated.We're heading to a mass die off when global distribution fails.

author: mtdoc
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 07, 2018, 10:04:12 pm
content: For a semi-realistic fictional account of what would happen after a large EMP attack or Carrington event - read the novelOne Second After

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 07, 2018, 10:10:30 pm
content: You can think of autarky as the potential for autonomy, usually at the national level.The term fell out of favour after WW2, when interconnection was seen as the cure for all the world's problems. I think we're going a bit overboard.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 07, 2018, 10:19:41 pm
content: There is a perception that democracy is too dangerous because of the imminent shift to automation and the liberalisation plans. For example, in the EU, the Services Directive basically implements the WTO GATS plan to shift services to commercial operations, then globalize them. That eliminates moral hazard for governments.If they had democracy they could just vote to end all that. And they would. Same in the US. So since 1995 its been off the table.----------------------------Did you realize this (countries defying the trading system to provide food to their poor people) is a big controversy in the WTO right now?Article X.1 of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), states in part that there“shall be multilateral negotiations on the question of emergency safeguard measures based on the principle of non-discrimination”which bypass the rules in an emergencyas long as they don't violate the aim of the agreements, (but it seems that would).I don't know.A lot would hinge on whether they reduced the profit of sellers of those products and banks and financial institutions, which have a "legitimate expectation" of windfall profits (from foreclosures, etc. as the society falls apart).If that is the entire reason why foreign financial institutions would be investing here, expecting to make a killing, based on correct predictions, it would likely be impermissible to stop it.I can hear them now. "If you did that, the whole system would fall apart".Quote from: Marco on January 07, 2018, 10:01:45 pm

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 07, 2018, 10:24:34 pm
content: Quote from: cleaningOut on January 07, 2018, 10:07:08 pmDo you have calculations for this?

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 07, 2018, 10:44:09 pm
content: The 2010 film "the Road" contains a terrifyingly realistic depiction of something similar.. a huge catastrophe of some kind..Its the scariest move Ive seen during my adult life.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 07, 2018, 11:07:05 pm
content: I wonder if a HVDC grid would care much. No transformer to saturate and the voltages induced don't seem that high.Free power at best, extra load at worst?

author: DenzilPenberthy
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: January 08, 2018, 10:21:39 am
content: Quote from: cdev on January 07, 2018, 10:44:09 pmAah, so you've not seen 'Threads' yet then?.... ...Low budget, made-for-tv film from 1984 depicting the outbreak of nuclear war.https://vimeo.com/channels/1055902

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 08, 2018, 01:29:06 pm
content: No, I haven't. Nuclear war is extremely scary because they totally underestimated the destruction. Its much worse than we are led to believe.(a solar storm followed by a multitude of nuclear plant meltdowns would be similar but slightly different than nuclear war. Cities would not all be burned as in a nuclear war, most (almost all, likely) of humanity would survive the initial set of events however as power and electronic infratructure would be subject to massive failure - operations which depended on it would fail, in the case of nuclear power plants, catastrophically. If that happened, millions would likely eventually die from radiation sickness, and billions from starvation due to lack of edible food, and its high costs. Cancers and crippling levels of inflammation would make the survivors lives shorter and/or painful because of biological changes, for example, cells cannot repair themselves due to inhibition of protein synthesis. Radiation causes innumerable health problems, including neurological problems and systemic inflammation similar to those experienced by people in chemotherapy i.e. "chemo brain" or who have undergone whole brain irradiation. (Survivors of hurricane Katrina and Sandy also had a similar issue "Katrina Brain, which was caused by heavy exposure to toxic mold which contains mycotoxins which are similar to radiation and chemotherapy in terms of the damage they do to the body and fast growing cells in the brain.)The aftermath of a planetary post solar storm scenario could be so difficult that problems would be unsolvable and a substantial percentage of humanity would die off. The largest numbers of deaths would again be among those who were unable to win in the struggle for food. its also quite possible wars would ensue for any remaining plots of arable land that were not contaminated, if any existed. (maybe places like the dryer side of New Zealand (fallout of many products of distant nuclear accidents are highest where there is the most rain) or South Africa would be less irradiated - so still habitable, at least for a while at the beginning, remember that many of the meltdowns would likely continue for a long time without human intervention in areas that had been abandoned, or where the local population, including those deemed responsible for cleaning up the "accident" or accidents had fled or at that point, been killed by the exposure.)The world cannot afford thse kinds of events as they can potentially make large parts of the globe uninhabitable.If that occurred, the cost of fixing things would be beyond the capability of humanity to solve.Any governments from before the war left after this would be faced with an unsolvable set of problems and almost certainly any survivors of the original combatants would be blamed for the huge losses.I think a good case can be made for nuclear war being so unwinnable and so likely to result in the world's destruction, that it itself must be a crime, even in self defense. I think that given these risks, a similar argument might be makeable for nuclear fission if society does not make adjustments that make corporations more accoutable for the costs of cleanup. It seems that their irresponsibility will almost certainly result in the cost being dumped in the lap of nations and peoples already stripped of all potentially income producing assets by neoliberalism (i.e. privatization.)This is one of the problems of our age, another being that the sacrifices of society which are being demanded by "global capital" are larger than any possible gains at this point because its impossible for businesses to deliver the huge returns allegedly being demanded by this "highly mobile global capital" without shedding the current middle class and awarding their jobs to a new group, basically to pay them off for their help in subjugating the rest of the world.Rather than dump things like the so called "multilateral system" that are of questionable value, they propose to engage in a race to the bottom, consuming the middle class in developed nations on the way (but not creating one in the developing world, either.) Also they want to totally destroy the environment to create new means of rent extraction with pollution.So, back to nuclear war.. if anybody survived, they- profits would not be pouring in as they would like to think. Quite the opposite, we would "devolve", in the aftermath. Even in a small nuclear war 2 billion would die, basically the world's children and those over the age at which one can defend oneself from predators intent on eating you, because the cost of food would rise above almost everybody's ability to pay.Also, chronic exposure to radiation creates children with tiny brains. Those born in that environments would be crippled with a multitude of health problems, and many would be stillborn or die shortly after birth. We would lose all our children and old people.Additionally cannibalism could become common as society breaks down under such conditions. People become prey valuable to others as food.Not a world that anybody alive now would be comfortable with.A nuclear war would quickly escalate and in a worst case scenario, significant amounts of atmosphere could be propelled outside of the gravitational pull of Earth. We might lose our oxygen and water.Most species on earth would die off. Its possible that all eukarotic life would be heavily impacted.Only the simplest life forms would survive.

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 08, 2018, 01:47:57 pm
content: Quote from: cdev on January 08, 2018, 01:29:06 pmOK. Who is "THEY". Name them.Also, I suggest to look for professional help.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 08, 2018, 02:12:31 pm
content: Sure..This is from 2011 but it will have to do:http://www.levyinstitute.org/conferences/minsky2011/presentations/Wallach.pdfAlso, see web sites like that of the WTO, OECD, World Bank, G20 and so on.The people who run the planet for the corporations now. The people who really regulate the phony regulators.Anyway, lets stop talking about this. I've supplied your proof.What I think would be the most productive is discussing alternative methods of power generation and especially distribution which would be immune to the EMP problem. So either more decentralized (smaller distances the power has to travel) or some kind of store and forward system..

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 08, 2018, 02:28:13 pm
content: Quote from: cdev on January 08, 2018, 02:12:31 pmUnintelligible. Doesn't have a complete sentence in it. Most of the HBRs say nothing to non conspiracy theorist nutters.Quote from: cdev on January 08, 2018, 02:12:31 pmLike who?You say that "they" want all of us dead, because north korea blows up an EMP, which kills everyone, but them, so they gain more power. That is a pretty stupid plan.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 08, 2018, 02:29:55 pm
content: You're confusing mtdoc's book with me.Nobody I know of "wants all of us dead" either, as long as we have money.The world that is being pushed on us is one where money iseverything.Where there are no "human rights", only corporate rights.Anyway, sorry to have been / be so blunt.

author: Kleinstein
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 08, 2018, 04:45:37 pm
content: There is no real need for a new grid, just because of those rare magnetic storms. They are a problem mainly in large area grids with long lines - so something like the US, Kanada and Russia. Korea is likely already to small to have a problem.Normally the transformer should be protected from a major damage - there are fuses to blow before the transformer does. However these are not always sufficient, but likely most of the time. So it would not be all transformers down, but only a few percent of the ones that sit at long lines, and quite a lot of blown fuses. Still the grid would be down and it could take some time to restore the fuses and to bring up something like 98% of the grid that is still intact (some of the blown transformers are spare anyway).For the nuclear power station the EMP would not be much more than a more or less normal loss of grid - so nothing serious. More like something seen in the US about once or twice a year for other reasons like a winter storm or wildfire.To prepare for such an event they might have to do a few more exercises on how to restore the grid from a total stop - this alone could be a problem in Europe, because it has not happened before. Some of the renewable power installations are also supposed to be a little tricky on a restart. Because there are so many with automatic control. The other point is that they might have to check the fuses and maybe upgrade a few, so that less transformers will blow.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 08, 2018, 04:56:18 pm
content: Threads like this remind me a lot of the occasional emails I used to get from a former friend when he was high on meth. They would be long rambling "research" papers on scientific or medical topics which used a lot of words without really saying much.

author: IanMacdonald
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: January 08, 2018, 05:28:08 pm
content: DC systems might well be at greater risk due to having very long continuous segments. This kind of thing tends to induce very low frequency currents into long conductors. The problem was first met with telegraph systems in the Wild West."If you think the climate and atmospheric researchers have a hard time being taken seriously by the bureaucracy, don't even think about asking a plasma physicist about advocating for geomagnetic storm shielding on Earth. You'll be laughed out of the room."No, I think there have been enough solar storm effects that the average bureaucrat acknowledges their existence, also that there is no subsidy scam involved. And, no auroragate, with threats to delete data requested under FOI. Or claims of Northern Lights causing a 30km sea level rise. (but only on some parts of the sea..)

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 08, 2018, 06:03:37 pm
content: Some of the effects described for the 1859 Carrington event on long telegraph lines sound as if - if they happened today they would cause problems on just about any long conductor. Some parts of the US are particularly suseptible because of the ground- (or lack of a good ground, is more like it).Anyway, they are working on a plan for power utilities that depends ongetting a warning of an impending solar stormfrom satellites permanently parked at the Lagrangian points. This warning might not be as long- not by a long shot- as the ones they seem to be describing we would have. (because of a sort of pre-seeding effect- need to find a good link for that to post here)This is a goodarticle about the DSCOVR mission- the first space probe intended to act as a sentinel- monitoring the space between the US and the Sun..Also:https://cosmosmagazine.com/technology/early-warning-system-solar-flaresRegardless of how well it works, this is an issue we all have a stake in so I think thatall countries should be brought into this system and given a system - a communications line that is not going to be knocked out- however that might be done- to deliver this warningand maybe given assistance in trying to reduce the effects of this solar EMP.That's particularly important.Quote from: IanMacdonald on January 08, 2018, 05:28:08 pm

author: mtdoc
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 08, 2018, 06:23:05 pm
content: Quote from: cdev on January 08, 2018, 02:29:55 pmTo be clear - I only referencedthis bookwhich is a fictional account of what might happen if an EMP attack occurred on the US. However, even though it is fiction (and at times written in a pretty cheesy fashion) the underlying premise is well researched and sound. And no one ever has said that some conspiratorial group "wants us all dead"This is not some crazy "conspiracy theory" or "doomsday prepper" concocted nonsense. There was, until recently aUS Congressional commission on this issueand as I stated earlier, there has been serious thought given to this at the highest levels of government dating back to the Kennedy administration.This is a very real threat (whether human caused EMP device or natural Carrington event). One or the other will eventually happen (hopefully not in my lifetime). The only question is will the impacted society(s) be prepared for it?The problem is, and some of the responses from forum members here illustrate this perfectly, is that human nature being what it is, most people do not want to think about such things. Even informed politicians or engineers who can grock the technical implications would rather live in a state of cognitive dissonance and go about their daily business without exerting the effort (mental or otherwise) to address the issue.To use a USA centric analogy, we all tend to want to live like the flock of farm raised turkey's, expecting tomorrow to be just like the day before - with food shelter and safety - unaware (or ignoring) of the approach of the third Thursday in November.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 08, 2018, 06:23:41 pm
content: Quote from: IanMacdonald on January 08, 2018, 05:28:08 pmWithout a reverse path it builds voltage, since it indeed is very low frequency. A transformer has no impedance to fight the current so an AC distribution network just becomes a giant set of electrical loops, the DC-DC converters only let through as much current as the controller wants before it breaks down. So as long as the storm can't build enough voltage to overcome the safety limits of the converters it just adds or subtracts from the load AFAICS.QuoteA morse key has a slightly lower break down voltage than a HVDC converter.

author: mtdoc
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 08, 2018, 06:32:57 pm
content: To add to the above, here is a technical paper recently presented to the US congress on the issue:Testimony of George H. Baker, Professor Emeritus, James Madison UniversityBefore the House Committee on National Security and the House Subcommittee on the Interior of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Joint Hearing on“The EMP Threat: The State of Preparedness against the Threat of an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Event”May 13, 2015Good stuff on common misconceptions about EMPs and Carrington events

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 08, 2018, 07:53:06 pm
content: Thank you, mtdoc- this is really well-put-together.Quote from: mtdoc on January 08, 2018, 06:32:57 pmThis is also worth reading:http://resilientsocieties.org/images/Petition_For_Rulemaking_Resilient_Societies_Docketed.pdf

author: David Hess
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 09, 2018, 12:49:52 am
content: Quote from: rs20 on January 07, 2018, 06:25:16 amFukushima unit 1 had passive cooling systems in the form of isolation condensers but once AC and DC power to the control systems was lost, they could not longer be activated and were left in an unknown state which as it ends up was disabled and nobody had the experience to know that they were not operating. The unit 2 passive cooling systems were engaged when power was lost and they continued to operate, although nobody knew it, until they ran out of water days later.So safety did not even require coolant pumps but there were still failures.

author: David Hess
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 09, 2018, 12:51:14 am
content: Quote from: Marco on January 07, 2018, 10:24:34 pmOff-grid solar power should not be affected but there is not much of it. Most individual solar installations use grid-tie inverters which require the grid to be operating for solar power to be available.

author: SparkyFX
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: January 09, 2018, 01:08:41 am
content: Quote from: Kleinstein on January 08, 2018, 04:45:37 pmI guess all mains-transformers are protected against lines failing short or open, the longer the wire, the higher the probability of a failure - there is no solar storm required to cause a huge spike in current. Lines falling on each other is an everyday thing on a larger scale.Common mode rejection might be relevant in such a situation, but its not only the wires that are hit, it´s also the ground, so relative where is that big increase coming from, in a ground referenced circuit?And i kind of doubt that it would be much worse than in a typical thunderstorm, which is basically the same (atmospheric charge/discharge gets added to the system) and is huge enough to cover a segment of a grid. Of course it is one grid, but it is a segmented grid and the usual electrical installation has a protection that matches that segments size. I don´t see where a solar storm overload should differ from any other overload. If someone doesn´t protect properly, it would have failed anyway, as this is not a "80% of the maximum performance yields 80% results" type of calculation, it either fails catastrophically or it doesn´t.Also there is a certain mass of atmosphere and humidity in between space and ground always covering a certain percentage of the exposed area, possibly dissipating large chunks of said energy.50% of all orbital satellites (the ones between sun and earth, not behind earth) are probably more affected by that problem than ground installations, even if it´s just a decrease in lifetime.QuoteAny power plant needs to be connected and then serviced once in a while, therefore bootstrapping should be a regular procedure anyway.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 09, 2018, 01:27:14 am
content: This is fromhttp://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/finalBoulderPresentation042611%20%281%29.pdfHere is another analysis of the Fukushima Daiichi power plant meltdown:http://www.springer.com/cda/content/document/cda_downloaddocument/9784431555421-c2.pdf

author: David Hess
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 09, 2018, 02:03:26 am
content: Quote from: SparkyFX on January 09, 2018, 01:08:41 amThe physical problem is the geomagnetic induced common mode current which causes transformer core saturation increasing losses. The economic problem is that these big transformers have a long production lead time and no spares.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 09, 2018, 03:43:12 am
content: So stop designing the system such that transformer destruction is the only way to handle saturation. There is nothing fundamental about this, relatively cheap retrofits should be able to fix this ... leaves you with the problem of rebooting the grid from a no power state after the storm is over of course, which it's also not designed for.PS. still not seeing DC voltages which could put a dent into HVDC distribution. AFAICS you wouldn't even need to take HVDC systems off line.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 09, 2018, 04:35:39 am
content: The voltages at the ends of long wires are astronomical..but even a small Dc voltage across a transformer core causes problems.See this:https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/world-needs-a-new-power-grid-that-won%27t-fail-in-a-solar-storm/?action=dlattach;attach=385073;imagewhich isfromthis:http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/finalBoulderPresentation042611%20%281%29.pdfwhich explains how the failure mode is induced by the common mode signal caused by the pulse.Basically, it throws everything off balance - the pulse travels up from the ground leg and the current running through the earth is very high. and the voltage can also be several hundred volts but regardless, its DC - if its a long distance, the volltage can also be high, and that pulse is low frequency, so it looks locally like superimposed DC and DC and transformers don't mix.They need a warning to shut things down, current efforts are focused on giving them some time - warning.Equipment that is offline, that is battery operated /and/or not connected to wires/wireless and shielded generally does not get fried by the pulse.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 09, 2018, 05:15:32 am
content: Not seeing it.

author: SparkyFX
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: January 09, 2018, 09:10:33 am
content: The affected surface area of the wires is a small fraction of the surface area of ground that is affected. So both will float on top of that extra charge. The cable is the better conductor, but then that charge needs to travel a certain direction in relation to a wire to cause a DC Offset, certain angles mean that charged particles need to cross the atmosphere in a shallower angle and therefore cross more atmosphere and might get deflected.Not seeing it as well.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 09, 2018, 12:57:21 pm
content: One thing that seems to be important in some areas as far as EMP is the "igneous" nature of the rock underlying soil in some areas.And the effect of this is that the "ground" is not really a ground for electrical purposes, compared to many other places. Making those areas more prone to damage from EMP - such as from solar storms.This link below is about soil resistivity.https://www.eoas.ubc.ca/ubcgif/iag/foundations/properties/resistivity.htm

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 09, 2018, 07:55:00 pm
content: It's funny to think that though Tesla's ideas were technologically superior for the time, if Edison's politics could have prevented him from winning in the end we would have a far less vulnerable grid. There were HVDC systems in the 19th century, so it could have happened.

author: David Hess
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 10, 2018, 04:36:38 am
content: Quote from: SparkyFX on January 09, 2018, 09:10:33 amThey already know this is a problem. Distribution transformers on high voltage transmission lines are regularly damaged by geomagnetic storms. The problem is well documented. What has not happened is a storm of the same scale as the Carrington event since 1859 but that is just random luck.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 10, 2018, 08:38:33 pm
content: I have been reading about the push to go "Cashless".https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/jan/09/rise-cashless-city-contactless-payments-exclusion-cashfree-societyHuge US financial entities have formed an alliance and teamed up with the Indian government to use India as a test bed for making the whole world dependent on banks and their services, who will get to skim off a few percent, in basically free money, or even more if somebody is in debt and a bad credit risk.http://norberthaering.de/en/32-english/news/749-modi-2But they have had a lot of problems, one of the reasons is many Indians are very very poor, with around half of the country so poor they do not have bank accounts. This is in part because of the caste system, and in part because of their failure to make primary education mandatory and fund it like other countries do. But, now they seem to have found friends in high places, and they and the US banking conglomerates are teaming up to set up a system that will exclude many from economic life.But, what happens if the power goes out, everywhere? And there is no cash.For rich and poor alike? What is it they call it in India?"Karma"...What I am getting at is - what if there is a huge solar storm and there is no grid, for a year or more in some places (it would be longer in poorer countries) and no means of buying anything.Getting rid of cash would be a recipe for an even bigger and more destructive mass starvation after a Carrington Class CME than there would be otherwise. With the chance of a CME as much as one in eight per decade, it seems awfully unwise to make us even more dependent on computers than we are now.Perhaps we should be pushing for cash to be used more, not less!Many don't know it, but the Chernobyl accident is why Mikhail Gorbachev says the ex-USSR fell apart.Shouldn't we be doing our best to prevent a huge disaster for humanity due to something similar?

author: mtdoc
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 11, 2018, 04:27:22 am
content: Yes, those who measure their wealth on the basis of an electronic ledger walk on thin ice. But in the event of massive grid failure due to solar storm or EMP, even paper currency will have a very short lived value. Without power, the just-in-time delivery system fails and after a few days grocery shelves will be empty and the gasoline tanks will be empty. How does the saying go - "Society is only 3 meals away from anarchy" or something like that. In that case "other things" will become currency.The vulnerability of the grid, and hence civilized society as we know it, is pretty clear to anyone who spends any time researching this issue. Unfortunately IMHO, nothing substantial will be done to rectify the situation - even though as referenced in this thread, the solutions are not technically difficult or even outrageously expensive.....

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 11, 2018, 04:34:04 am
content: Paradoxically, if they wanted a way to get the world to swear off their money disease, this would be it.

author: spirail
author_rank: Newbie
timestamp: July 21, 2023, 08:07:33 am
content: "Most massive space storm on record may have been overhyped"https://www.science.org/content/article/most-massive-space-storm-record-may-have-been-overhyped#:~:text=Bright%20aurorae%20shone%20worldwide%2C%20and,were%20hit%20by%20the%20storm.Occasionally I have an existential concern about this solar storm thing and like to re-read the Wikipedia article about Telegraphs tools shocking themselves and running without batteries.Then I think of all the times I spend several hours in a disorganized work environment bewildered by paradoxical physics, only to find that the power supply really was/was-not connected up the way that I thought it was.Or... maybe just some shitty grounding explains everything.https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2013/01/swsc130015/swsc130015.html2.2.2.2. Technological effectsWe have to remember that some 1921 telegraph technology will have been made well with the knowledge of the time, and some will be been rather hacky in how it was installed.I think it would be great if someone made a youtube on what size of solar storm it really takes to cause a global disaster of this kind.If you want to imagine that the sun is capable of disasters of any size, I would speculate that the flare might have to be so large that it strips the whole planet's atmosphere off in minutes before your crypto exchange goes down.

author: jonpaul
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: July 23, 2023, 05:49:05 pm
content: EMP: much more likey hazard.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Primehttps://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2020/01/14/the_largest_nuclear_test_in_outer_space_had_startling_effects_on_hawaii.htmlEPA/USA admi: IMMEDIATE THREAT to US electric grid.Suggest a backup nat gas/propane gen with auto cutover. We have 15 kVaGo off grid with solar.Jon

author: Doctorandus_P
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 05, 2023, 09:36:59 pm
content: Tsunguska (1908) was a bit bigger then Chelyabinsk (2013) but less than an order of magnitude. Main difference is that Tsunguska was more metal while Chelyabinsk was more of a mudball, and those are indeed events for once every 100 years.And such a thing probably punches straight though the atmosphere if the angle is a bit more perpendicular.