The B61 bomb: A case study in costs and needs - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: bullet308
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 12:09:50 pm
content: How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb (not to be confused with the U2 album of the same name)You know whats worse than a nuclear device that can go <boom>? An inventory of nuclear devices that may-or-may-not go <boom> and is steadily deteriorating. It makes everybody antsy and eye that big red button just a little more sharply.Anti-nuke people that think we should just let the arsenal just fade away just don't understand how this all works. They don't understand deterrence and they don't understand human nature. To the casual observer, the rationale of Mutually Assured Destruction may not seem very rational at all, but most of what would replace it is somewhere between dangerous and apocalyptic.Realizing this becomes even more critical as the major nuclear powers steadily reduce their stockpiles. The US inventory is now well under 20% of its late-1960s peak and is slated to be reduced further. It may seem counterintuitive, but as the numbers in both US and Russian inventories creep down towards the triple-digits, it becomes even more crucial that what is left is utterly reliable, and while ours have problems, I am sure the Russians have even bigger problems...And when you are reduced to buying spare electronic components (like vaccum tubes!) off of eBay to keep your nukes <boom>able, things can be proceeding only so well...http://tinyurl.com/B61-Bombor the long form:http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-b61-bomb-a-case-study-in-needs-and-costs/2012/09/16/494aff00-f831-11e1-8253-3f495ae70650_story.html?wpisrc=nl_headlines

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 12:40:29 pm
content: Quote from: bullet308 on September 17, 2012, 12:09:50 pmIn order of importance, the things that can destroy our modern civilisation, and possibly the human race.1) Nuclear weapons. Primarily a full exchange.2) A big-arse wayward rock sacking into us. (but we think we have the major ones covered)3) Natural cataclysm or big change of some sort that screws the climate. #2 is part of this I guess.4) Us screwing the climate (Nuclear winter is one way of course)Anyone who thinks we can't and shouldn't do anything about the #1 threat is either foolish or deluded.It is possible to eliminate all nuclear weapons. It's possible the odd rogue might slip through the net of course, but not enough to end our civilisation.Nuclear material is not easy to produce, and is not hard to control or manage.Quote from: John F. KennedyDave.

author: T4P
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 01:03:41 pm
content: Actually i'm pretty interested to see the UGM-27 Polaris- Rust In Peace, Polaris

author: G7PSK
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 01:49:15 pm
content: I used to think that the nuclear bomb was the best thing ever as it stopped the US and USSR going to war, the trouble is that the powers that be and society as a whole in the west and the USSR got soft and developed a conscience. If you are not willing to use the A bomb on a bunch of nutters with long beards wearing skirts and waving Kalashnikov's they become of no use at all and therefore are a liability as the nutters might get them.

author: Monkeh
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 01:55:11 pm
content: Quote from: G7PSK on September 17, 2012, 01:49:15 pmHey, watch the Scottish jokes.

author: entereev
author_rank: Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 02:14:55 pm
content: Another good reason to leave earth ASAP and terraform Mars or something. Nuke hoarding is not a safe hobby!

author: Hypernova
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 02:29:03 pm
content: Wonder if it would be cheaper to design a new bomb from scratch.

author: Monkeh
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 02:39:17 pm
content: Quote from: Hypernova on September 17, 2012, 02:29:03 pmBut they're not allowed to test it.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 02:45:55 pm
content: Quote from: Hypernova on September 17, 2012, 02:29:03 pmSounds like they essentially are.Dave.

author: Monkeh
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 02:47:51 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on September 17, 2012, 02:45:55 pmWithout changing the important bit which goes boom, because nobody will let them blow a new one up to see how it works.I think Tsar Bomba scared a few people.

author: SeanB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 03:32:25 pm
content: Yup, difficult to test the finished product unless you dig a really deep hole or six, or pop it off in the south atlantic deep under water......... And make sure the monitoring sats are on the other side of the earth at the time. While the thing may go bang, it really depends on how well your design is as to if it is a really good bang or something still impressive but not as big as you wanted.Still, would love to see a real Davey Crockett, really wanted to get a hold of a SAM, but those have a little issue, though you can walk through a city with one without anybody noticing. Looks like a bit of drain pipe with ends and a samsonite suitcase.

author: SgtRock
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 04:04:50 pm
content: Dear Bullet308:--An interesting article and an interesting point. I think you are correct that, "backdooring" unilateral nuclear disarmament by just ignoring the weapons until they become duds, may not be such a good idea. It may even be provocative, as weakness always is, and cause a nuclear attack. I do not think that by mentioning nuclear weapons in a nuanced way, that you are foolish or deluded. I am usually more impressed by logical argumentation than by proclamations of this sort. Phil Hartman had a character on SNL years ago, Frankenstein. In the skits, Frankenstein would sit in on complex nuanced discussions, and when it came his turn to speak he would say "Fire Bad", "Fire Burn", "Fire hurt Frankenstein".--Now, you would think that reducing the nuclear arsenals by 80 percent or more in the last 50 some years would seem to be a good thing to the "Unilateral Disarmament" (also known "No Nukes) folks, but you would be wrong. They just laugh at your foolishness and move the hand on Doomsday Clock even closer to Midnight. You see, they want nuclear arsenals to be as genocidally deadly, and civilization ending as possible, so that they will be difficult to use, and to provide good preaching points. Some cases in point: 1) The Neutron Bomb, general deployment of which would greatly reduce collateral casualties, radioactive fallout, and quite possibly make a nuclear exchange less than "civilization ending. Oh man, do the Anti-Nuke folks ever hate these, for the very fact that they reduce potential casualties. 2)Better targeting, which allows the use of fewer and fewer megatons. They hate this idea for much the same reasons. 3)Star Wars, I.E. destroying incoming weapons before they arrive. First they said "Only a fool or a deluded person would even think such a thing was possible." Now they say that these systems could actually cause an exchange, because they are destabilizing. Hence, the current POTUS, has shut down the program and has chosen to leave the West vulnerable to terrorist one or two at a time attacks, because he does not want to make Vladimir Putin nervous.--Indeed, this is a complex issue. Letting go of the Dragon's Tail must be done very, very carefully, and maybe even incrementally. But the Anti-Nuke folks have one simple answer to all of this: "Fire Bad" Meanwhile I am hoping that Uncle Lo does not airmail us any of the U235 the peace loving, nuke deploring folks from down under have been selling him."I could see that, if not actually disgruntled, he was far from being gruntled."P. G. Wodehouse 1881 1975Best RegardsClear Ether

author: SeanB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 04:14:54 pm
content: There was an advert here asking for bids on 36000 tons of contaminated scrap metal, used to be a centrifuge farm.........

author: poptones
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 05:29:11 pm
content: Actually, methinks someone is confusing "Keyrock" with "Frankenstein," both characters doen by the late and great Hartman.Keyrock would break things down in very condescending fashion, then say things like "Your world frightens and confuses me... sometimes when I get a message on my fax machine I wonder did little demons get inside and type it? I don't know.. my primitive mind cannot grasp these concepts. But there's one thing I do know..." at which point he will make some legalistic breakdown that convinces the jury that, if it's so obvious even to this neanderthal, it must be obvious to us.So it would really be more like Keyrock owns the missiles, and Keyrock says "This world frightens and confuses me. I do not understand some of your complex and mysterious ways. But one thing I do understand is that the nuclear arms race was responsible for the downfall of communism in eastern euroupe, and it will be the downfall of communism in china so long as the side of democracy and capitolism presents a tangible threat to these aggressors. And it is therefore I will retain control of these weapons until such time as my body is once again consumed by ice."

author: G7PSK
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 05:33:42 pm
content: Quote from: Monkeh on September 17, 2012, 01:55:11 pmHow many Scot's run around with a Kalashnikov.

author: SeanB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 05:34:41 pm
content: An old quote: "I am not worried about the ruler that wants hundreds of nuclear weapons, I am worried about the ruler that just wants one!"

author: SgtRock
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 05:46:00 pm
content: Dear Pop:--Indeed you are correct, Sir. I was born ignorant, and I misamemberd thatun. It was indeed Frankenstein. I have so corrected my post. In my haste to poke a little gentle fun at our gracious host, I screwed up. Now, if only someone with more skills that I, could just cobble together a picture of DJ with bolts coming out of his neck."He was born ignorant, and has been losing ground ever since."Fred Allen 1894 - 1956Best RegardsClear Ether

author: Monkeh
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 06:09:53 pm
content: Quote from: G7PSK on September 17, 2012, 05:33:42 pmThis one, when he gets a chance.

author: G7PSK
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 08:19:25 pm
content: Do we nee to do some wall repairs?

author: MikeK
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 09:27:52 pm
content: Quote from: bullet308 on September 17, 2012, 12:09:50 pmHaving thousands and thousands of nuclear weapons isn't deterrence. It's stupidity. And understanding human nature means understanding how stupid we can be and that more weapons makes it more dangerous, not less. Not to mention cost, security, disposal...MAD doesn't need to be replaced with anything, other than better foreign relations.Quote from: EEVblog on September 17, 2012, 12:40:29 pm#2 is a very rare event. It happens on the scale of millions of years. It's well below #4.

author: meanpc
author_rank: Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 09:31:03 pm
content: 'Wouldn't you prefer a nice game of chess?'- Watched this movie last week. If it's not my favorite, it's definitely in the top ten.Anybody been here?http://www.titanmissilemuseum.org/I've been wanting to go - looks like fun.Wonder if I'd be tinkering with microcontrollers if there were no nukes? No nukes, no space race, no sixties/seventies/eighties silicon advancements maybe? You know who Wozniak's dad worked for? The defense industry, just like the rest of the brains at the time.

author: poptones
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 17, 2012, 10:09:42 pm
content: Oh cool, that's right here! Looks more interesting than the biodome.

author: ToBeFrank
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 01:24:55 am
content: Quote from: meanpc on September 17, 2012, 09:31:03 pmYep. It's very cool. I highly recommend it.

author: poptones
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 01:32:20 am
content: Wonder if I'd be tinkering with microcontrollers if there were no nukes?Indeed. It was a redesigned "nuke" that took our first astronauts into space.

author: entereev
author_rank: Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 02:23:06 am
content: History tells us that humanity is much more efficient at killing each other, as such we need war for progress...as long we don't overdo it ofcourse

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 11:48:23 am
content: Quote from: MikeK on September 17, 2012, 09:27:52 pmYes, but it can in theory happen at any time, and is potentially a "global killer", and practically instant at that. Just because the average time scale is long is no reason to ignore it.Regular climate change events (man made or natural) are usually not in that kind of instant time scale. And we have the potential to do something about it, and they are not easy (or even possible) to accurately predict.But we can easily detect and prevent #2, so that's why I put it 2nd on the "action list".Dave.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 11:50:20 am
content: Quote from: meanpc on September 17, 2012, 09:31:03 pmThere is little known sequel.Not nearly as good of course.QuoteI tried to wrangle this into a side trip, but SWMBO wouldn't have a bar of it!Dave.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 11:53:28 am
content: Quote from: entereev on September 18, 2012, 02:23:06 amAny hence anyone who thinks having theinstantcapability to "overdo it" isnotan incredibly bad idea (or worse, "essential for security", is simply not thinking clearly.Dave.

author: ftransform
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 01:40:26 pm
content: what is it with all the bleeding heart liberals in this thread. If it was not for nukes we would be speaking russian right now!

author: MikeK
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 01:53:44 pm
content: Quote from: ftransform on September 18, 2012, 01:40:26 pmA common fairytale. But Russia had no intention of invading the U.S. They were told the same lies we were.And if you read into the Cuban Missile Crisis you'll find that the world almost ended back then. Two Russian sub commanders gave the order to launch. A third overrode them. That danger was a danger of NUCLEAR weapons, not bad breath.

author: MikeK
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 02:00:38 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on September 18, 2012, 11:48:23 amBut we are currently and actively affecting environmental change. We should certainly monitor and track space rocks, but there is no current or active threat. You take care of the knowns first. The unknowns are, by definition, unknown. I put environmental change at the top and space rocks far down the list.

author: bullet308
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 02:06:05 pm
content: Actually, I personally am glad that the US and the Russians were able to negotiate away such large percentages of their grossly excessive inventories, as their existence has a number of risks associated with them. As Ronald Reagan once said (quoting an old Russian saying, allegedly), "Trust but verify", and that is the principal that has underlain all of the rounds of negotiation that have taken place over the past 50 years. Verification regimes and systematic reduction and elimination of the most destabilizing weapons systems have made the world a safer place.But now, as we get down to brass tacks and start digging into the very core of the inventory, the risks are set to climb at least some. As the numbers of weapons get smaller and smaller and crammed onto fewer and fewer delivery platforms, the reliability of the inventory and its survivability in the face of a surprise first-strike becomes both fundamental less sure and that much more crucial in maintaining stability. I have difficulty imaging how that last step will be taken when the superpowers give away the last of their toys, particularly in a world where there are not only nuclear-armed state actors, but where extranational players are looking to get into the game just as we would prefer to get out.Those last steps may not be impossible, but I suspect they will prove impossible over the short term and under anything like present conditions.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 02:19:37 pm
content: Quote from: MikeK on September 18, 2012, 02:00:38 pmHow do you know unless you search for them!We are currently and actively at risk from being wiped out by a space rocks.My list ranks simply things that can wipe out our civilisation in the shortest possible time.This one can be ticked off easily and completely, it's a long way there (if not done?), and just needs the (small) money.QuoteSpace rocks are as real and known as you can get. They are physical objects you can see and track, a world apart from environmental modelling!Spend the money, find then, track them, plan for any issues, end of story. Problem solved, tick it off the list.Environmental concerns are actually very unknown. They are essentially predictions (the worlds most complex simulation models, with the most variables based on lose sets of data that are effectively down in the noise, by any stretch)Majors issues like volcanic eruptions (which have in the past produced "nuclear winter" type global extinction events) are even more unknown and unpredictable than the man made stuff. We have barely scratched the surface.There seems to be more evidence of space rocks have caused the largest global extinction level events in the past, compared to "climate change", hence why I put it above. But the point is of course moot.Dave.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 02:27:20 pm
content: Quote from: bullet308 on September 18, 2012, 02:06:05 pmIt's not impossible, far from it.The shear difficultly of producing the nuclear material required for a bomb means that unless it's stolen material, no rouge group (I won't use the T word) would be capable of producing a bomb. It's something that only a large state can acquire. And sure, it's possible a rouge state could produce a bomb undetected when every other nation has given up theirs, but it's only going to be a few at most. Not nearly enough to cause any nuclear winter effects or threaten the survival of the human race in any way, or destroy the large military nations who would bomb them into the stone age if they dared to do use such a thing.And that is surely a massive step forward from the current situation of living in a world in which we could wake up tomorrow in world were the human race is essentially finished.Dave.

author: bullet308
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 03:14:08 pm
content: Granted, there are risks with the present status quo and it is far from the ideal situation. I was only pointing out that there are certain risks involved in the process of getting from where we are now to where we would ideally like to be and that one thing we do not need as an added variable is either party wondering whether or not the weapons work and whether or not they are sufficiently survivable so the can be used to retaliate in the event that someone truly gets stupid. This has the benefit of making it less likely that somebody will be that particular flavor of stupid.Oh, and of course, one of the possible implements that might be used for deflecting inbound asteroids is the B61s big brother, the B83. Another reason to suspect that the total count will never quite hit zero.

author: jerry507
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 04:24:22 pm
content: There are always people who are willing to ascribe complex political reasons to simple decisions. Nuclear stockpiles of the size we have are expensive AND dangerous. Anti-ballistic missile technologies are expensive AND don't work well. The solution? Reduce your stockpile size in a politically convenient package (making both of you do it) and cancel the shit that doesn't do what it advertised. Simple and without the crazy political conspiracy theories.

author: SgtRock
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 05:06:58 pm
content: Dear Bullet308:--The issue you put on the table, if I may restate it briefly is: Should the US unilaterally disarm by allow all its weapons to rust, rot and become unusable? Instead of coherent answers and rational argumentation you get people calling you deluded and a fool. The AGW crowd take the same tack, never mind the phoney hokey schtick, "hide the warming", phoney kangaroo court peer reviews, trying to destroy the good names of honest scientists, and other Inquisition type shenanigans; If you do not agree, and quickly, then you are either a fool or a knowing tool of those evil, beastly, beastly (back of hand to forehead) Oil Companies who are right now "guzzling obscene profits" according to Elizabeth "Pocahontas" Warren. Careful study of the use shibboleths by the Left shows that the issue is always so important that all disagreement, even 1% disagreement, is either by fools, deluded persons, the criminally insane or else genocidally evil.--After careful consideration of the statements of Mike. K. I think I shall have to put him down in the undecided column with regard to the necessity of the Nuclear Deterrent. Of course, I am not sure, but my guess would be, that Mike is in favor of letting the US Nuclear Arsenal just fade away do to neglect, because once France, The UK, China, Russia, India, Israel, Pakistan, The Peoples Republic of North Korea, Iran, and possibly a couple of other (clandestine possessors of nuclear weapons), realize that the US has unilaterally disarmed, they will all join hands and sing John Lennon's Imagine, while they immediately rid the World of those beastly, beastly weapons, without regard to any geopolitical realities.--One of the advantages of the "Fire Bad!" position, is it is not necessary to actually engage on any of the complexities of the issue. One can merely declare that the debate opponents are stupid, deluded fools, who probably in their heart of hearts really, really want a Nuclear Holocaust, because they hate puppies an kitties and do not like to sing the Whiffenpoof song.--My guess would be that there is a strong correlation between those who favor immediate unilateral nuclear disarmament, and those who want to make sure that the widow women living 10 miles out of town is prohibited from owning a hand gun. It is not just Nuclear Weapons, it is Cluster Munitions, Land Mines, etc. Eventually they hope to work their way down to banning the Bow and Arrow.--The short term solution, is probably going to be in the realm of fewer, smaller, more reliable, and more finely targeted nukes, with conventional munitions replacing, due to precision targeting, nukes for some tasks. The Left tends to hate this sort of thing, because it make the weapons seem less terrible. Eventually we may get to the "fallout free" pure hydrogen weapon, with selectable yields in the 10s of tons range, which will give the No Nukes folks the screaming meemees, for sure."Had we not pursued the hydrogen bomb, there is a very real threat that we would now all be speaking Russian. I have no regrets."Edward Teller 1908 - 2003Best RegardsClear Ether

author: G7PSK
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 05:28:50 pm
content: There should be a system of mutually assured destruction for all heads of state the big red button should also be connected to a collar containing an explosive device that is worn around the neck of the said heads of state all the devices should be connected to all the buttons, one goes all go.

author: bullet308
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 06:03:04 pm
content: I think Dave's assessment of the "T" threat re: nuclear devices is largely correct. They *are* quite tricky to build and/or get the raw materials for, and it is difficult to imagine how it could be done without the direct involvement of a nation-state, and nation-states are unlikely to want to play as they have mailing addresses for the retaliatory strike that would inevitably follow if they were to be tied to a nuclear terrorism incident. Unless there is a nation-state out there that is grossly stupid or has a major suicidal streak, I just don't see that playing out.No, what I am talking about is just good, old-fashioned superpower-on-superpower action. Less likely at the moment perhaps than the peak(s) of the Cold War, but the capability remains, and therefore the threat, and so in that domain, all of the old rules regarding deterrence still apply.

author: SgtRock
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 06:38:09 pm
content: Dear G7PSK:--Funny you should mention that. Some say the USSR toppled (with the help of RR, and Lady Maggie, Pope John Paul, Lech Walesa, etc.), due to Financial Realities, others say it was the threat of Missile Defense, but some semi-secret sources say it was the B2. Supposedly the B2 was created with one and only one mission, in mind. This mission was called the "Grand Tour". It involved the targeting of various residential addresses on the outskirts of Moscow. It also involved the targeting of various luxury Dachas on the Black and the Caspian Seas as well as other vacation retreats in various locals on the Volga, the Dnieper, the Oka, and so forth. It also involved the use of rocket driven Nuclear Bunker Busters to penetrate the hardened bunkers that were put in place under the highway that leads from Sheremetevo to Moscow proper. These Bunker Busters were also targeted on certain hardened emplacements in the Urals and one or two in the Caucuses. The deadly purpose of the "Grand Tour" was to assure a virtual decapitation of the Nomenclatura caste extending to every family member and any address ever associated with its members. The fact that they all tended to pile up in the same places, where the Spets Naz and Blue Shoulder Boards could guard them, made it ridiculously easy, though it might have interfered with Peach and Cashew harvests that year and ruining all of that fine, fine Georgian Brandy.--As a former Cold Warrior and Air Force NCO, I have worked within 5 minutes (by MIG flight time) of the USSR in multiple locations, in what were known formally as "Listening Posts" and informally as "Tripwire Forces" as in set the thermite, grab an M16, and run like hell. So, we all knew, (like many of our GIs overseas right now know), that if the balloon went up, we were not likely to survive the first ten minutes, and that many of our families would be facing certain destruction. Military folks, even higher leadership, all have had the same type experiences, and do not approach the subject of Global Nuclear War in so cavalier a fashion as you seem to imply. Even the highest leaders have weighty concerns that extend far, far beyond the notion of mere personal survival. Of course there is always the one off occasional sociopath like the midgets of Nork, or the genocidal maniacs of Farsiland, but I really doubt that any of these nut cakes would be deterred by death threats. Still in the case of the USSR, at least, you may be correct, the threat of death to the leadership and all of their families, various and sundry, may indeed have done the trick. Now Putin is reduced to feckless breast beating. Luche chem luche.We turned the switch, saw the flashes, watched for ten minutes, then switched everything off and went home. That night I knew the world was headed for sorrow.Leo Szilard 1898 - 1964Best RegardsClear Ether

author: MikeK
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 08:44:18 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on September 18, 2012, 02:19:37 pmSure, you can put a name to the issue: asteroidal impact. But the important details are unknown: from where?, how fast?, how big?, how much mass?, what composition?, when? All unknown.But our environmental concerns are largely obvious. Too much greenhouse gases, too much deforestation, monocrops, destroying habits, pollution, overfishing, overpopulation. We know quit a bit about these. They aren't subtle and no modeling is needed.Mike

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 18, 2012, 11:42:05 pm
content: Quote from: bullet308 on September 18, 2012, 03:14:08 pmSure.And the elephant in the room is Nuclear Winter.Even if you have a perfect defence system and no nukes land on your soil. If it's a "full exchange" as they call it, the country that does not get hit (and other innocents far from the fight, like say Australia or NZ) have their civilisations destroyed as well by global (or hemisphere based) Nuclear Winter. There are calculated limits and "levels" to nuclear winter so that at some point, lunched your nukes is destroying yourself as well, even if the other side does not retaliate.In the view of most experts in the subject, it is much more beneficial to have the "risk of de-armament" than keeping the current status-quo.Dave.

author: PeteInTexas
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 05:25:23 am
content: Quote from: bullet308 on September 17, 2012, 12:09:50 pmHello, its 2012! You can come out from under the desk now.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 06:28:01 am
content: Quote from: MikeK on September 18, 2012, 08:44:18 pmI think you miss the point.These are definitely objects we can find, track and measure, and hence once you do that, fine. You've ticked the box. Only worry and detail over it if you find one that's going to hit us.QuoteYes, they are obvious, the there is a huge amount of devil in the detail in how/when/if it's going to effect the human race on global long term scale.No modeling required???Long term effect environmental modelling is one of the most complex and highly unpredictable modeling scenarios known to man.And it's all very complicated issue. We can't just simply shut down our entire modern society and go overnight to zero greenhouse gases, zero deforestation, zero habitat destruction, zero pollution, zero fishing etc.So there is massive detail is trying model the long term cause/effect scenarios and balance this whole thing.That's why I put it down the list because it's not something you can just decide to "fix" or solve overnight.Dave.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 06:33:04 am
content: Quote from: bullet308 on September 18, 2012, 06:03:04 pmActually, a gun type ("little boy"/Hiroshima) device is pretty trivial to build.The implosion type ones are the very difficult type to build and get right.Dave.

author: SgtRock
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 06:38:24 am
content: Greetings EEVBees:--Dave has stated that innocents like Australia and New Zealand would also be harmed in a Nuclear War. Not to put to fine a point on it, but, I have a minor quibble with the notion that Australia would be an innocent in such a conflict, in that Australian mining companies with government approval, sell Uranium to China. Of course Uncle Lo has promised not to use the U235 for anything other than power generation. Uncle Lo has also promised not to counterfeit any consumer products. Also it is not clear what is going to happen to the spent rods, which are a ready source of Plutonium. In November of last year, Australia finalized an agreement to sell Uranium to Russia, but is standing firm and holding the line when it comes to selling fissionables to non-dictatorship countries like India, go figure.http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/ENF-Australia_starts_shipping_uranium_to_China-2111086.htmlhttp://apo.org.au/research/australias-uranium-puzzle-why-china-and-russia-not-india--Dave has also said, and I quote "In the view of most experts in the subject, it is much more beneficial to have the "risk of de-armament" than keeping the current status-quo." This may indeed be correct, provided that, like courtship among Porcupines, it is done very, very carefully. The question that Bullet308 began this discussion with was not "Should we keep Nuclear Weapons for ever and ever" but "Should the US unilaterally disarm by allowing its bombs to decay into radioactive junk" Would anyone care to have a go at answering the latter?--Finally, Pete has said to Bullet308 "Hello, its 2012! You can come out from under the desk now." To quote Michael Corleone; "Now who is being naive""And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?"William Butler Yeats 1865 - 1939Best RegardsClear Ether

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 06:48:34 am
content: Quote from: SgtRock on September 19, 2012, 06:38:24 amFrom:http://www.dfat.gov.au/security/aus_uran_exp_policy.htmlQuoteDave.

author: Simon
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 07:07:14 am
content: Quote from: G7PSK on September 17, 2012, 05:33:42 pmyour as bad as the BBC

author: Simon
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 09:33:56 am
content: Quote from: jim_griff on September 19, 2012, 08:34:36 amIndeed, our government (and the one before it) is responsible for the deaths of two young police officers because they choose to save resources.

author: meanpc
author_rank: Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 10:09:10 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on September 19, 2012, 06:33:04 amI hope you're not getting any ideas for Teardown Tuesday

author: Simon
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 10:39:50 am
content: should be "building monday"

author: G7PSK
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 11:12:08 am
content: If you are not worried about your own survival IE. a suicide bomber, you don,t even need a gun type device you just need 2 sub critical masses that together will be over the critical mass and just put them together with your hands. The first test of critical mass was done by having a ring of uranium of slightly more than half critical mass and a slug of uranium to pass through the ring at close tolerance all on a device nicknamed the guillotine, One of the scientists involved was in a hut on his own he released the slug so that it fell through the hole and measurements were made of the emissions as it passed through the ring if the slug had stuck in the ring Los Alamos would not be there today.

author: bullet308
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 12:56:42 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on September 19, 2012, 06:33:04 amVery true, which is why I specified "and/or get the raw materials for". The big limiter there is separating out the U-238 from the U-235, which is extremely energy-intensive and expensive. Ask the Iranians about just how expensive it is.You give me the U-235 and *I* could make a decent run at building a gun device. :-/

author: bullet308
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 12:59:49 pm
content: Quote from: PeteInTexas on September 19, 2012, 05:25:23 amThe world is a different place, but not that different a place, and human nature is quite a stable thing over millennia, much less a couple of decades.Intentions shift like the wind, and capabilities are what they are, and the capability for us to smoke ourselves is still quite intact.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 01:21:07 pm
content: Quote from: bullet308 on September 19, 2012, 12:56:42 pmJust to keep some donut eater analysts at the NSA gainfully employed - some extra key words for guaranteed automatic flagging :->#whitehouse#president#wmd#pentagonAlthough it would be a tough choice if you only had one - The idiots on Wall Street, or the idiots in Washington?I say round them all up, stick'em in the outback, and light the fuse. Less collateral damage.Dave.

author: bullet308
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 01:29:03 pm
content: Well, of late I would choose to send Wall St. downrange over DC, though that could shift as well.I hereby certify that I do not have nor will I acquire a centrifuge capable of separating out uranium. #nsadisclaimerThere. That should make them happy.

author: perfect_disturbance
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 02:07:30 pm
content: Quote from: bullet308 on September 19, 2012, 12:56:42 pmI think your both underestimating the difficulty of the task. Whenever your dealing with a material where a mislabeled container or dropped box can mean people sick or dead and an impossible mess to clean up. Even fairly straightforward manufacturing becomes nontrivial.

author: bullet308
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 03:16:38 pm
content: Didn't say it would be safe. Only that it was doable.You shape two pieces of it just right and jam it together hard enough with high explosives and something impressive is going to happen. Also, by definition you have to be pretty crazy to undertake such a thing anyway, so workplace safety is unlikely to be much of a priority.

author: SeanB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 03:52:48 pm
content: I will add as well that more than 80% of the near earth asteroids detected were discovered __AFTER__ they had passed the earth..........

author: perfect_disturbance
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 04:05:06 pm
content: Quote from: bullet308 on September 19, 2012, 03:16:38 pmWhen you say shape just right what shape is that? How do you go about shaping it? Do you just throw it on a lathe? Or melt it down? And the fissile material is only part of the problem you need a neutron reflector probably made of beryllium which isn't exactly safe to work with. Even the high explosives your jamming it together with aren't sold at the corner market. Sure these aren't impassable barriers especially for a nation or big well financed organization. But I think a lone actor wouldn't be able to pull it off.

author: SeanB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 08:12:21 pm
content: Basically a piece about grapefruit sized, machined into a sphere with a hole in it penetrating to the middle. Fill with polystyrene as a compressible filler, and have the plug a foot or two away in a gun barrel. Fire plug into sphere, and have a neutron source nearby ( any one of a dozen will do) to provide the initial trigger. If you want a higher yield you can wrap it in Beryllium, or surround with lead and a steel casing to make a low yield but still effective bomb. For more fun fill the outside with lithium chloride salt and a really thick depleted uranium tamper, and stand well back when you light it off. Note you make the sphere as 3 or more parts so that you only get close to critical when assembled, you do not want it to go off in the lathe. The machine shop you use will not really be usable afterwards..............Neither will the machinists and assemblers, but most will figure this out.

author: poptones
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2012, 10:28:47 pm
content: So basically, anyone who was able to pull this off would need an entire suicide squad at his disposal.I think this gets back to that point about "the tour." Bin Laden wasn't the guy pulling the cord on the suicide jackets. He wasn't one of the guys on the planes. No matter how "motivated" you can get someone to do harm to themselves, at the end of the day you still need resources. If you're the leader and you die, the mission ends. No matter how motivated you are, self preservation ultimately will have to win out.Like that nutcase in Iran - he might talk all kinds of game, he might even be nuts enough to commit his country to becoming a parking lot... but it's very unlikely. If he knows he, his family and everyone he knows or loves, will be the first to go in a conflict, that's going to change the game.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 20, 2012, 01:42:26 am
content: Quote from: perfect_disturbance on September 19, 2012, 04:05:06 pmBut if you had the material and not the know-how (or key people) you could just make a dirty bomb.It wouldn't be a WMD, but it would incite mass panic and the radiation would clear a large city for a long time, maybe years?Any smart T person would of course claim there are more in other cities as well, thus creating more panic.The DHS might have a use for those billion+ rounds of ammunition after allDave.

author: SgtRock
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 20, 2012, 02:46:20 am
content: Greetings EEVBees:--Dave has mentioned the folks at NSA looking for certain key words. I was stationed at Ft. Meade (NSA HQ) in 70 and 71 and we were looking for mention of any of the things Dave mentioned, also we were looking for any mention of "Air Force One", any mention of any aircraft shot down , any mention of any aircraft violating any national air space. Also more humorously we we looking for any piece of text that had the letter cluster cky repeated within in a stretch of 20 letters or so as in "Tricky Effing Dicky", and example of which was isolated from some cable traffic out of Hanoi while Jane Fonda was their helping to keep up the moral of the troops, their troops that is, not McCain and his fellow residents of the Hanoi Hilton, who would have found, by the way, the notion of water boarding as torture quite humorous.--It was at about this time the the US (according to secret sources) dropped plans to make Moscow uninhabitable for the next couple of decades by dropping "Pixie Dust" I.E. various isotopes of cobalt cesium americium and various isotopes of members of the actinide family. Oddly enough, it was apparently also about this time that the Kremlin dropped plans for its "Cobalt Bomb" or "Doomsday Bomb" which was supposedly capable of killing everyone if the USSR were about to lose a war.--I recall seeing some mention a year or so ago, of the danger of terrorists making dangerous isotopes using high energy x-rays to achieve transmutation in much the same way New Zealander Rutherford transmuted nitrogen into oxygen using alpha particles. Or, they could just steal a machine from the radioactive therapy room at a hospital."You should never bet against anything in science at odds of more than about 1012 to 1."Ernest Rutherford 1871 1937Best RegardsClear Ether

author: bullet308
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2012, 11:58:18 am
content: Why steal anything when you can pick up gems like this laying by the side of the road in Texas?http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/event-status/event/2012/20120913en.htmlThe size of the source is not mentioned, but some of them apparently get up into the Curie range. That would make a hell of a mess properly distributed. :-/"Agreement State Event Number: 48300Rep Org: TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF HEALTHLicensee: HALLIBURTONRegion: 4City: HOUSTON State: TXCounty:License #: 02113Agreement: YDocket:NRC Notified By: ART TUCKERHQ OPS Officer: BILL HUFFMAN Notification Date: 09/12/2012Notification Time: 08:37 Event Date: 09/11/2012Event Time: 21:00 Last Update Date: 09/12/2012Emergency Class: NON EMERGENCY10 CFR Section:AGREEMENT STATEPerson (Organization):RYAN LANTZ (R4DO)BRIAN MCDERMOTT (FSME)JANE MARSHALL (IRD)MEXICO (E-MA)JIM WHITNEY (ILTA)DEBORAH HASSEL (DHS)FSME EVENTS RESOURCE (E-MA)This material event contains a "Category 3" level of radioactive material.Event TextAGREEMENT STATE REPORT - LOST AM-241/BE WELL LOGGING SOURCEThe following information was obtained from the Texas Department of State Health Services Radiation Branch via e-mail:"On September 11, 2012, the Agency [Texas Department of State Health Services] was notified by the licensee that an Americium-241/ Beryllium [well logging] source could not be located. The source had been used earlier that day at a well site near Pecos, Texas. The well logging crew left the Pecos site and went about 130 miles to a well site south of Odessa, Texas. When the crew went to remove the Am-241 source they discovered the source transport container lock and plug were not in place and that the source was missing. The crew returned to the well site near Pecos and searched for the source, but did not find it. The Radiation Safety Officer (RSO) stated that the lock was found in the storage compartment in the back of the truck. The transport container plug was not in the container. The RSO stated they were putting together a group to look for the source along the roadway between the two locations."The RSO stated that the crew stated that they did not stop anywhere along the route between the two locations. The RSO stated they were verifying that using the vehicles black box. The RSO agreed to contact the appropriate local law enforcement. The RSO stated he would send a copy of the latest dose rate readings for the source to the Agency."The Agency has notified their local inspectors of the event. Additional information will be provided as it is received in accordance with SA-300 [Reporting Material Events]."The source was described as approximately 7 inches long by 1 inch in diameter stainless steel cylinder. The State has not requested any assistance in locating the source at this time.Texas Report I-8988* * * UPDATE AT 1744 EDT ON 09/12/12 FROM ART TUCKER TO S. SANDIN * * *The following update was received from the State of Texas via fax:" 1430 hours  the Agency [Texas Department of State Health Services] was contacted by the licensee and provided the following information."The licensee has completed a press release which provides a description of the source, actions to take if found, and stated that they would offer a reward. The press release will be issued by their Public Information Group. The licensee has completed logging of the well near Pecos and the source was not located."The licensee stated that the well site had been searched and surveyed twice. The licensee stated that the road between Pecos and Odessa had been surveyed using well logging tools extended from pickup trucks and driven between 5 and 10 miles per hour and the source was not found. The licensee stated they have had people on the ground searching, but did not know how much area away from the well site in Pecos had been searched."The licensee has sent a Radiation Safety Officer and a second supervisor to the Pecos well site. The RSO is bringing scintillation survey instruments to the well site for additional surveys. An Agency inspector will meet the RSO at the well site."The licensee has reviewed the well logging data and confirmed that the source was installed on the tool during logging operations. The licensee has performed preliminary interviews with the operator involved. The licensee indicated that additional interviews are required. They have not been able to determine how the source could have been lost during transport. The licensee stated that they completed a review of the truck's black box and confirmed that the truck did not stop while traveling between the two well sites."The license stated that the local sheriff has responded to the Pecos location and was interviewing the tool operators. The licensee stated they believe that the group supervisor involved had been evaluated under the IC's [Increased Controls] as trust worthy and reliable."The licensee stated that other entities at the well site as well as the lease holder have been notified of the event. The licensee stated that they will continue to search for the source until it can be located. The Agency has offered their assistance to the licensee. Additional information will be provided as it is received in accordance with SA - 300 [Reporting Material Events]."Notified R4DO (Lantz) and FSME (McDermott), IRD (Marshall), ILTAB (Whitney) and Mexico via email/fax.THIS MATERIAL EVENT CONTAINS A "CATEGORY 3" LEVEL OF RADIOACTIVE MATERIALCategory 3 sources, if not safely managed or securely protected, could cause permanent injury to a person who handled them, or were otherwise in contact with them, for some hours. It could possibly - although it is unlikely - be fatal to be close to this amount of unshielded radioactive material for a period of days to weeks. These sources are typically used in practices such as fixed industrial gauges involving high activity sources (for example: level gauges, dredger gauges, conveyor gauges and spinning pipe gauges) and well logging. For additional information go tohttp://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Pub1227_web.pdf"

author: poptones
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2012, 12:28:34 pm
content: Bah. There's stuff like this all over the FSU. These sorts of items can make people sick but they're not going to knock out a city or even a building.http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/01/world/in-georgian-region-race-to-recover-nuclear-fuel.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

author: PeteInTexas
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2012, 02:11:26 pm
content: Quote from: bullet308 on September 19, 2012, 12:59:49 pm"Peace through strength" is still a dangerous oxymoron for the planet.

author: G7PSK
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2012, 05:52:48 pm
content: How simply a nuclear bomb could be made can be seen from reading these pages from William L Laurence book Men and Atoms.