Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are predictable  - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: joseph nicholas
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: March 14, 2019, 10:51:05 pm
content: The economy and tourist industry here in Mexico has accounted for earthquakes. When it happens (earthquakes) is , the gov puts up tourist sites with photos to visualize how horrible this was? But this happens on a regular basis. Earthquakes really occur on a regular, more or less, frequent. So too with volcanic eruptions.

author: ataradov
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 15, 2019, 12:06:22 am
content: There are dozens of earthquakes every day, they are just spread around, so each specific place gets them relatively infrequently. But the probability is higher in the geologically active zones, of course.That does not make them predictable at all. As far as I know the best we can do for big earthquakes is 10-15 minutes of advance warming. And even that is state of the art stuff, not available everywhere.Here is a cool toyhttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/

author: Brumby
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: March 15, 2019, 03:06:18 am
content: Of course they are predictable ... but how precise do you want to be in both time and location and how much notice do you want?For "Being There" tourism, you would need at least a month's notice, get the right spot - and be accurate to within an hour. Good luck.Even if you could do that, there's no telling what the magnitude will be, so lining up a couple of hundred tourists just to see a couple of rocks wobble slightly, isn't going to wow them - especially if it was 100 miles away.

author: joseph nicholas
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: March 15, 2019, 01:29:21 pm
content: I can say from experience that when a specific location on the earth has an earthquake or tsunami, it will produce aftershocks. After a month or so there is a period of tranquility. This is a regular pattern. You get a geological event then there is a period of non-event. It happens over and over. During the course of thousands of years, why is it puzzle when the next earthquake will occur? People who live in earthquake zones, take this in stride. Its a normal occurrence. It should be predictable. Is there not a formula to give a rough estimation of the next event? Just asking.

author: larrybl
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: March 15, 2019, 03:16:51 pm
content: Good prediction links.https://suspicious0bservers.org/https://quakewatch.net/

author: ataradov
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 15, 2019, 04:11:08 pm
content: Quote from: joseph nicholas on March 15, 2019, 01:29:21 pmIt depends on the accuracy you are looking for. For SF Bay Area there is a nominal "a major earthquake every 100 years". So I guess we are about to have one.All the observations we have don't have enough predictive power to be practically useful. "One earthquake a month on average" does not let you really derive any specific dates.We a re not even good at predicting the weather more than 2-3 days in advance.

author: 6PTsocket
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: March 16, 2019, 01:47:48 pm
content: Didn't the Italian government jail some geologists, that were on their payroll, for not predicting a volcanic eruption, where there were fatalities? That seemed really off the wall.Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

author: ciccio
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: March 16, 2019, 03:57:29 pm
content: It's not the exact story...It was not a volcanic eruption, but an Earthquake (2009 - L'Aquila)The geologists / scientists were members of the Government's "Great Risks Commission", and they were accused (by a Judge, not by the Government) ofculpable negligencebecause after a first stroke they (maybe after government's pressures) assured the Public that there were no risks of further catastrophic strokes, bur after six days there was a even bigger stroke, with damages and deaths.The 7 members of the commission were sentenced in the first instance but then acquitted (excluding one who was convicted of other charges).The result of the first conviction was the revolt of the scientific community, but I think that they had not fully understood the accusation: they were not accused of not having foreseen an earthquake, but of not having correctly informed the population of the possible risk of strong tremors.Now the commission still exists, with different members, and for fear of justice they almost never meet (they are paid the same).Best regards

author: Nerull
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: March 16, 2019, 04:49:59 pm
content: Quote from: joseph nicholas on March 15, 2019, 01:29:21 pmThe worst thing basic-level physics classes teach people is that there are simple formulas that predict anything they can imagine.Earthquakes are very complex phenomena, there is no simple formula you can plug in and get a time and date out, any more than you can plug in a simple formula and find out when your house will get stuck by lightning, hit by a meteor, or crashed into by a car. You can deal with averages, or you can try an analyze the movement and pressures within tectonic plates and try and model when one might slip. This will likely require large scale data collection and number crunching on supercomputers. There is no simple formula that will give you an easy answer.

author: donotdespisethesnake
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 16, 2019, 06:20:39 pm
content: Quote from: ciccio on March 16, 2019, 03:57:29 pmSo if there had been no subsequent earthquake, they would still have been prosecuted. People shouldn't need telling that not even scientists can predict earthquakes, but what the scientists actually said is the risk of earthquakes was not greater than normal, and therefore it was not reasonable to evacuate homes. The fact there was an earthquake does not contradict that.In the end, they were prosecuted for not predicting an earthquake.

author: ciccio
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: March 16, 2019, 10:19:44 pm
content: Quote from: donotdespisethesnake on March 16, 2019, 06:20:39 pmWhy? What would the prosecution be? In the end they were obviously acquitted.Best regards

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 16, 2019, 11:46:20 pm
content: Quote from: joseph nicholas on March 15, 2019, 01:29:21 pmThousands of people have been trying to predict earthquakes and even though progress has been made, it's nothing like predicting the weather or even volcano eruptions yet. That's not for a lack of trying or wanting. Do you understand how earthquakes occur? It's very simply put pressure building up between plates until they give way in a sudden fashion. As the Earth isn't homogenous and we can't detect the entire geological makeup at depth, the moment when the final break will occur isn't very predictable.

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 17, 2019, 08:54:36 am
content: Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 16, 2019, 11:46:20 pmNot very but somewhat due to the additional forces placed upon plates by the gravitational pull of the moon.Have a read about this guy Ken Ring:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Ring_(writer)

author: stj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 18, 2019, 02:51:12 pm
content: earthquake prediction has been cracked.anybody can do it - the guy who worked it out explains it in detail.https://www.twitch.tv/dutchsinseofficialhttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCHE92x768p8h-fMrqhsnE1Qnot so sure you can predict volano's though.

author: ataradov
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 18, 2019, 04:44:26 pm
content: I have skipped over a few of his videos, and so far he seems like a typical nut job. In a multiple places I randomly picked I've heard "they don't want you to know". And a lot of rambling about oil drilling.I would want some independent verification of that before I give it any weight at all. YouTube is full of people who have "cracked" perpetual motion too.Also, it does not look like he is predicting much. The best way to prove this is to publish a simple text file with predictions. The more of them come true - the more trustworthy he would be. No need for videos, it does not matter how he does it. I would take divine providence, if it is actually accurate. and if this information ends up being accurate, he will be a rich man.

author: stj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 18, 2019, 05:29:42 pm
content: well instead of callling him names, maybe you should watch a dozen or so of his vids properly.he's no nutjob.he's right about coverup's though, prediction is a threat to tourism for places like hawaii and malasia.as for drilling, it creates weak points in the crust that can slightly absorb energy and create a localised quake.

author: golden_labels
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 18, 2019, 05:56:37 pm
content: joseph nicholas:I guarantee you that earthquakes are predictable. They are as predictable as the fact that the market will grow. I don’t tell you when, I just tell you it will. Would you invest all your wealth based on that statement? Obviously no.Do not mistake ability to predict things with either possibility of an event, expected frequency of an event or even any probability distribution describing an event. Knowing some properties of a system is not the same as knowing all of them — in particular its timing. There may be very good data on large quantities of events counted together, but that is not the same as knowing anything about a single, arbitrarily chosen, future situation.As an example, let’s take a 6-sided, fair die¹ and roll it every day of a 365-day year (on leap years we let the die rest: don’t be cruel to dice). If you cast it and receive six, there is a devastating earthquake; on five there is a minor earthquake; otherwise nothing noticeable happens. I can tell you immedietely, without even touching the die, that:It is possible that an earthquake will happen and it may be a horrible one.It is expected to see an earthquake each 3 days, half of them being devastating.While there is some variation, you will most likely still see between 6 and 11 earthquakes a month (each 60–110 hours).You do not need to believe a random guy on the internet — throw the die and check it for yourself!The above values are of a similar nature to those, which you mention. They really predict things about earthquakes. But only as long as we’re talking about many of them. Take the die in your hand and tell me if — based on them — you can tell me with certainity that you will get an earthquake. Or maybe can you be certain about the next 7 days?____¹ A die does not accurately model earthquakes.(citation needed)

author: ataradov
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 18, 2019, 05:59:29 pm
content: Just as I though, government is hiding and big oil is involved, as usual.Again. Publish a simple text file that is timestamped (GitHub will do). If a lot of predictions come true, it will automatically give him legitimacy.Hovering over Google Earth and rumbling for hours is not "legit". Or participation is the scientific process is also above him?

author: CatalinaWOW
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 18, 2019, 07:16:15 pm
content: For those convinced of the predictability of earthquakes, google Parkfield, CA. It was once the Holy Grail of earthquake prediction. Actually still is, but the hopes for dramatic results have fallen tremendously. The town lies along the famous San Andreas fault, and had experience a series of earthquakes at fairly regular intervals (mean interval 22.8 years with standard deviation of 7.2) since 1857. All about magnitude 6. So scientists were pretty sure another earthquake would occur there about 1988. The area was heavily instrumented so that all that could be learned could be fed into predictive models. And all of that instrumentation sat there until 2004 when the next earthquake actually occurred after a 38 year interval.So even this "special" regular earthquake proved to be non-predictable in any meaningful sense. Would you propose evacuation in 1987 and then staying evacuated until 2004? The costs of a false alarm can easily be a sizable fraction of the damages from an actual earthquake so the error rate has to be quite low to be useful, and no one has got that kind of accuracy.Governments have kept quiet about some earthquake predictions, a fraction of which have actually happened. They are in a very tough position. Cause disruption and panic about something that might happen, and then suffer the loss of confidence when it doesn't, or just ride the situation out? There isn't any right answer at the moment.

author: ataradov
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 18, 2019, 08:12:09 pm
content: Quote from: CatalinaWOW on March 18, 2019, 07:16:15 pmWere there any predictions coming from credible sources with reasonable assurances of accuracy? Otherwise we can say that the government keeps quiet about impeding Nibiru impact.Were there ever any advance evacuations because of possible earthquake? I can't remember any.

author: CatalinaWOW
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 18, 2019, 09:57:52 pm
content: Quote from: ataradov on March 18, 2019, 08:12:09 pmI don't recall the exact source of my comment on government withholding of information. It was a newspaper article. As I recall the predictions were from properly credentialed geologists, and were of the obvious content for such a prediction - a several day window with heightened probability of a significant earthquake and followed shocks which could be interpreted as fore shocks.I believe the Chinese have done two warnings based on their earthquake predictions. Don't know if either one included mandatory or other evacuations. One is believed to have saved lives and the other is the reason there haven't been more.By the way, my personal prediction for the next Parkfield quake is 2044. I want full (probably posthumous) credit if it happens as predicted. And other than possibly to advise real estate transactions a prediction with a full year window is functionally useless. So it wouldn't matter significantly if my methodology is correct. Even more so since it can't be generalized to any other fault system.

author: Gregg
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 19, 2019, 01:14:11 am
content: Quote from: CatalinaWOW on March 18, 2019, 09:57:52 pmBy the way, my personal prediction for the next Parkfield quake is 2044. I want full (probably posthumous) credit if it happens as predicted. And other than possibly to advise real estate transactions a prediction with a full year window is functionally useless. So it wouldn't matter significantly if my methodology is correct. Even more so since it can't be generalized to any other fault system.WOW-- Maybe buying acreage in Parkfield and selling tickets to the gullible would be a good business plan.Land in Parkfield cannot be too expensive compared to most of California. All you have to do is narrow the time frame a little about a year from the predicted quake. It could be one big party not unlike lunar eclipse events.edit: I just had another idea: instead of needing to predict to the day, it could be a one or two week event like Burning Man, only call it "Quaking Man"and to get the ball rolling, there could be annual events prior to "The Big One" and by the time 2044 came and went with or without a big quake it could become a real money maker.

author: mixedreader
author_rank: Newbie
timestamp: March 19, 2019, 02:39:39 am
content: "personal prediction for the next Parkfield quake is 2044"?I will mark this down and hope to see you around by then.

author: stj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 19, 2019, 07:55:51 am
content: dutchsinse predicts quakes within the next 7 days and to a locality of about 100miles.but clearly your just trying to disprove stuff rather than having an open mind to scientific method.so i'll leave you to get back to your cave/government office.

author: CatalinaWOW
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 19, 2019, 05:07:34 pm
content: Quote from: stj on March 19, 2019, 07:55:51 amdutchinse appears to use the classic psychic technique of making lots of predictions and then going back and reporting the successes. The most significant indicator of the insufficient predictive capability is his prediction of a magnitude 8.8 earthquake on the west coast of the US. on May 28, 2015. While earthquakes did occur in California on that day (they do virtually every day), afaik none were over magnitude 5. So for this particular prediction he missed by hundreds of miles and nearly four orders of magnitude. Or, looked at another way he is off by at least four years so far.Whether his predictions are better than chance or not, they are not good enough to justify evacuations or other public safety measures.

author: stj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 20, 2019, 05:33:24 am
content: his hit rate is over 80%his method is simple.1: pressure travels along known routes (red arrows on his maps)once you see a quake you can predict where the pressure is heading.2: deep quakes lead to stronger surface quakes.he has a table of depth to strength-increase that has been devised and proven.theres other factors, i just wanted to point out he's not a psyc' he is using clearly explained scientific method to do quake forcasting.it's weak point is it is reliant on accurate reports - and USGS are fucking liars.luckily they arent the only source of data.bottom line,it's like forcasting the weather, pretty accurate but not 100%, and you can choose to use it or ignore it.just dont be one of the assholes saying it has not been done yet.

author: ataradov
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 20, 2019, 05:39:09 am
content: All of that is nice and all, but if his methods actually worked, he would have done what scientist do - publish the results in peer reviewed publications. Right now he acts exactly like any other free energy discoverer.Just like with free energy, there is a lot of money in it, if the thing works. And even if he does not want to publish the results, there are always people that will steal your work. But his work appears to be worthless to even steal.What is the best way to get his predictions? In a written form. I don't want to watch hours of rambling on how USGS is lying.

author: stj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: March 20, 2019, 07:38:32 am
content: weekly forcasts are on sundays.the rest is just rambling/explaining what has happened in the last 24hours for his followers.so only watch sundays.