Top Economist Urges China to Seize TSMC If US Ramps Up Sanctions - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: Mecanix
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: June 07, 2022, 09:54:43 pm
content: Is this some kind of stupid media group fud click-bait, bluffing to get Taiwan in the Western Arms Trade incentives, or we're seriously dealing with some Int'l kindergarten politics? How to unvote them all, I had it..."...The Global Fight Over Chips Is About to Get Even Worse"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-economist-urges-china-seize-043050394.html

author: raptor1956
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: June 07, 2022, 11:10:09 pm
content: Well TSMC is obviously aware of such ideas and is rapidly moving to build factories in the USA to prevent China from focusing on them. Once they have factories up and running in the USA they leverage China thinks they have will be greatly reduced. But, if China were to undertake anything like capturing or destroying TSMC in Taiwan they will be hit with sanctions every bit as tough as what Russia is dealing with. But it will be FAR worse for China -- if they do something that kicks in such sanctions then their economy will zero out overnight and hundreds of millions of Chinese will discover they were "at will" workers that are no longer wanted.So, the sequence of events might go like this:1. TSMC builds factories in the USA2. China attacks Taiwan and captures or destroys TSMC3. The world imposes massive sanctions on China4. Hundreds of millions of workers in China are fired given the lack of markets for their products5. The Chinese people revolt against their government and the government is toppled, albeit with enormous loss of life -- perhaps millions dead6. The west will struggle to rebuild the manufacturing they gave to China and for years there will be hardships7. The west will realize that following the outsourcing plans of Wall Street were an unforgivable crime and proponents of outsourcing will spend significant time in court defending the indefensibleBrian

author: SiliconWizard
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 07, 2022, 11:16:51 pm
content: It all just looks like putting children in power.

author: coppice
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 07, 2022, 11:18:43 pm
content: TSMC is kinda stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they diversify their locations that are less physically vulnerable to what China, or any other government, might do. On the other hand they've found their costs are far higher every time they've done fabrication outside Taiwan, which obviously hurts their competitiveness.

author: rsjsouza
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 12:17:28 am
content: I would take any news in this with a pound of salt.

author: BrokenYugo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 12:46:14 am
content: Personally I think the whole idea of China attacking Taiwan any time soon is unlikely. I doubt the Taiwanese are going to let them capture such critical heavy industry intact, and I suspect all involved understand any attempt to capture Taiwan in general will likely yield China little more than a bald smoking rock to brag about, never mind the international reaction.

author: Mecanix
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 12:57:31 am
content: Quote from: BrokenYugo on June 08, 2022, 12:46:14 amAgree. We all know they have zero incentives in doing so, let alone being shielded from sanctions as this will hurt foreign markets & economies x10 more than theirs. Using the western pumped PR opportunities to FUD the mass with that level of nonsense is rather new though, and becoming a problem. When will the west side "grow-up" and resolve their silly domestic-like dispute so to calm the damn daily creepy nonsense is everybody's guess...

author: floobydust
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 05:06:13 am
content: This economist sounds like another overly nationalistic moron. If an invasion happens, TSMC has the suicide pill ready where they will destroy the equipment, leaving china nothing.

author: jfiresto
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 11:39:35 am
content: Quote from: raptor1956 on June 07, 2022, 11:10:09 pmWell, that was the plan with Russia, and just consider how things are working out. The "sanctions from hell" did not, as predicted, crash the economy and cause mass revolt. Instead, the populous have taken things in stride, Putin's popular support and Russia's trade surplus have both markedly increased, and the rubble has become the world's best performing currency.Among other reasons, the sanctioning has failed because Russians have suffered far worse and are ready to accept some short term hardship for a long term, greater good. And because Russia can survive and even thrive as an autarky. The same is true of the Chinese and China, and in one regard, even more so. China's export sector is about a third smaller than Russia's, as a percentage of total GDP, and has been gradually shrinking, according to Statista from 23% to 15% over 2011-2021.If you are interested in the job, the U.S. may still have an opening for a supremo sanctions engineer. The fellow who led the recent effort has taken a leave of absence, for personal reasons, after his "chess playing" with Russia and Asia went badly pear shaped. His work may give you some ideas of what not to do.

author: BravoV
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 12:25:06 pm
content: Quote from: jfiresto on June 08, 2022, 11:39:35 amThe funny part is, the whole Western countries are going to experience "regime change" from within, caused by their own sanctions against Russia, that supposed to weaken Russia and will topple Putin.Just look what happened just now to Bojo of UK just few days ago, his days are numbered, and also German's chancellor is not going to last longer with his supporting party, oh including the Green party too as major de-industrialization is happening there. Italy regime also on the same path, while France with the newly elected president is going to have a really-really tough times ahead and going to loose majority there, and last what Biden is experiencing now domestically and causing huge damage for his party.

author: themadhippy
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 12:39:24 pm
content: Quotewhat happened to Doris has very little to do with russian sanctions,if anything the opposite is true and it was his actions against russia that saved his arse.

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 12:42:44 pm
content: Quote from: raptor1956 on June 07, 2022, 11:10:09 pmOnly in wet dreams. It's impossible to impose sanctions on China similar to Russian (from which NATO allied countries already suffer pretty hard). Well, it's sort of possible, if countries imposing these sanctions want to self destroy while leaving China relatively unscathed as western manufacturing is so reliant on components and materials made in China. On other hand China also has 10 times larger population than Russia, way stronger manufacturing capabilities, and economy with larger purchasing power than US. Try to deal with that.BTW how it's going with sanctioning Russia? I did not notice it's economy is anywhere close to falling.

author: mac.6
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 12:44:17 pm
content: TSMC without ASML support is not very usefull...

author: BravoV
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 01:13:13 pm
content: Quote from: wraper on June 08, 2022, 12:42:44 pmTo China total trade with foreign countries, the "whole" transaction with US is only < 15% (source from Western medias), and alot of people are deluded & thinking that if US stopped buying "everything" from China, with the US$ printed out of thin air, will make the whole China economy collapse instantly.Quote from: wraper on June 08, 2022, 12:42:44 pmJust google "USD RUB" and see the one year trend (currently at 60 Ruble per 1 US$), the Biden's massive unprecedented sanctions against Russia, supposed to make Ruble value crash down to 200 as in Biden's grand speech when he initiated it few months ago.Now Russia is worrying that their currency grows too strong and too fast that may affect their export badly for long term, go figure.

author: jfiresto
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 01:15:37 pm
content: Quote from: BravoV on June 08, 2022, 12:25:06 pmI have been watching Italy. We will know the end of the war is near when the Italians change sides. (An old joke.)

author: madires
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 01:23:33 pm
content: Quote from: rsjsouza on June 08, 2022, 12:17:28 amA good advise! It could be simply someone with strange ideas or that person is testing the waters for a government or politican with world domination ideas.

author: mikeselectricstuff
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 01:40:54 pm
content: Quote from: floobydust on June 08, 2022, 05:06:13 amDoubt they'd even need that - China siezing TSMC would be like when African govenments siezed the land of white farmers and gave it to people who had no clue how to run a farm.Just look at the failed Chinese fab attempts

author: Bud
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 02:06:40 pm
content: This was a dumb post. Who do you think employees of TSMC are? Are they some aliens from the other planet? They all RPC people. Any sabotage and China will punish any of it. In regards to the knowledge how to run the plant - same thing. The plant employees are locals and not disappear overnight if anything happens. Guess what, people need to feed their families regardless.

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 02:25:51 pm
content: It's utter absurdium to suggest that China could seize TSMC.A company of that scale needs engineers. Almost zero chance the Taiwanese engineers will work for China, the Taiwanese identity is very strong. It would be like getting Ukranians to work for Russia after the invasion.Then you have the western components. ASML machines require laser replacements every 1000 hours or less. Those lasers are made in California, by an ASML subsidiary. Zero chance they would receive supply there. The tin targets for the EUV process are probably also precision and made in the West somewhere. And then you have software, wafer resources, chip designs, packaging. TSMC is just one 'part' of a wider machine.

author: BravoV
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 02:53:09 pm
content: Question yourself whether you're into this "narrative" on TSMC vs China thingy, that all of these, maybe, is just a projection for "other" bigger agenda ?Also once in a while, read the so called "bad&evil" media's side to have different perspectives, instead of just Western medias.Pretty sure Taiwanese are not that stupid, especially when they remembered what happened to France's Alstom, and so many other examples of great companies from US allies, fellow French members here should be able to tell this sweet story.PS : Regarding Alstom's story, no need to rush to Wikipedia to read what happened, as the "goodies" are censored out.

author: Stray Electron
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 08, 2022, 06:01:26 pm
content: Quote from: jfiresto on June 08, 2022, 01:15:37 pm