"Gas Armageddon": Energy/electricity prices in EU/UK (and how to deal with them) - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 06:45:08 pm
content: As most people in the EU and UK will know, natural gas prices are rising like mad. There are a few reasons for this, although like many economic crises it is not caused by a singular factor.I do not want to stray too deep into politics. This thread is to discuss the causes, consequences and solutions (both personal and nation/EU-wide) to the gas price crisis. Politics, such as direct criticism of current political parties, should be avoided, however, I believe it would be within the rules to discuss proposals such as subsidies, and behaviour of governments at a broad level. I rely on the moderators to guide as necessary - please advise if the thread is drifting too far.The 'elephant in the room' is Russia's reduction of gas flows through Nord-Stream in apparent, though not admitted, retaliation for EU/NATO assistance of Ukraine and sanctions against Russia and prominent oligarchs. Russia is an important supplier of gas to the EU -- pre-invasion approximately 35% of all gas supplied to the EU was sourced directly from Russia. However, gas prices were rising long before Russia decided to invade. Russia had control over some storage facilities in Germany and was deliberately underfilling this storage, and the 2021 winter was colder and had lower renewable generation than other years. Gas prices are also on the rise because Covid lockdowns ended sooner than many expected, which created a market shock as industries rebooted.Overall, gas futures have risen from around 18 euros/MWh pre-pandemic to over 250 euros/MWh  as of today. This is clearly unsustainable. It will lead to the collapse of businesses and suffering amongst those on lower incomes who cannot afford an energy bill 6-10x higher.To substitute the missing gas, it has been proposed to build more LNG terminals and import the gas from the US, Qatar and SE Asia. But, an LNG terminal takes a substantial amount of time to build; at least 12 months. Further, there are only about 30 LNG tankers worldwide that are not contracted actively to deliver gas, but to replace just the missing Russian gas will require around 130-140 tankers, assuming each tanker runs on a 50 day supply cycle. Another issue is the tankers that Qatar can use are too large to fit through the Suez canal, and therefore have to take the long route, which further reduces their effective capacity. Further, the design of pipeline capacity is to reduce size the further into western Europe the gas goes, so LNG terminals in Spain or Portugal are no good for supplying the rest of Europe without pipeline upgrades too. Europe would need between 15-20 new LNG terminals. Whatever way you look at it, it just does not seem feasible.With prices rising this high there is an argument towards governments that subsidies are needed for residential customers, but this is not trivial spending even for a government, At current rates, it would require in excess of £50 bn per year for the UK alone; and that ignores SMEs and larger industry. For energy-intensive industries, like aluminium smelting, it is hard to see how they could be feasible to run at 10x energy cost. Domestic customers are seeing at least a 2x cost in average bills by the end of the year, and 3-4x looks to be on the horizon. I also can't see how subsidies can work if demand stays the same, it will just cause further inflation in gas prices.How long will the crisis last? If it requires Ukraine to prevail in the war, it may take upwards of five years. If the EU backs down, and withdraws support from Ukraine, then the crisis might reduce somewhat as gas is restored, but that is an unacceptable outcome for many and of course it is very likely to doom Ukraine to defeat. Still, it is quite possibly what Russia is betting upon.On a personal level, I am considering adding a home battery, solar panels and super-insulating my home. These will have a large capital cost, so I am modelling whether the cost-benefit. A home battery, if charged on off peak electricity (at 3:1 or so difference), could pay back at normal usage in around 3-4 years, if the install is done myself. If solar is added, then the system can save even more in the summer, however it increases the overall cost. I've looked at the cost of insulation, and it's surprisingly expensive, but if prices rise then it may just need to be a cost that is swallowed. What personal actions are people taking to reduce their exposure to the increase in costs?https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

author: SiliconWizard
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 07:09:53 pm
content: Sure, install solar panels if you can afford them and own your house. And hope for the best - meaning, hope your government won't take measures to absurdly tax solar panels/electricity coming from them. I'm not holding my breath for those thinking they can get away from inflation on energy prices in some way. Yeah uh, not very optimistic?

author: daqq
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 07:27:00 pm
content: Any tips and tricks for flat-dwellers?

author: bingo600
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 07:35:33 pm
content: DK electricity prices hit a 10 year all time high today -1 Kwh = 1.27€ - between 19.00 & 20.00DK State taxes included in the above approx 30..40% of the above - They're cashing in biiiggg time on the increased "Spot prices"Lowest price in this 24hr window is 0.83€/Kwh/Bingo

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 07:42:00 pm
content: IMHO: if you still have to insulate now, then you are too late. You'll be paying crazy prices for insulation material -if you can buy any-. Same for solar panels. Better ride it out. Buy a few extra sweaters and set the heating lower.Maybe you can buy some materials on the second hand market and get a good deal. I recently swapped all the windows in the attic with used (good as new) ones with better glazing / higher insulation grade. The old ones where drafty due to degraded seals so I hope I'll keep more heat in this winter.Actually the saddest part of the gas crisis is that the Netherlands is -literally- sitting on a huge gas bubble but it won't be used due to earth quake damage. But when push comes to shove, I assume the Dutch government will budge and replace whatever Russia isn't delivering. It is not like we don't have any gas in Europe.For now high gas prices are a good motivator to switch to renewables which don't run out and can be sourced from many different sources. Let's call that a good thing.

author: SiliconWizard
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 07:43:15 pm
content: Quote from: bingo600 on August 24, 2022, 07:35:33 pm

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 07:46:32 pm
content: Quote from: bingo600 on August 24, 2022, 07:35:33 pmOn August 17 between 17-00 & 18-00 I had EUR 4 for 1 kWh, and with taxes it's more than EUR 5 for kWh.

author: voltsandjolts
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 07:47:22 pm
content: I hope you all like cold showers and sandwiches** Not recommended simultaneously

author: themadhippy
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 08:29:31 pm
content: Only 2 people to blame for the uk's situation,thatcher and sid.

author: Squarewave
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 08:50:07 pm
content: Announcement on the radio today said that the UK has just done a month with no Russian energy, whether or not that is also diesel I dont know, but one would assume so.

author: themadhippy
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 09:01:12 pm
content: Quoteconsidering the piddling amount we import that aint much to boast about

author: SiliconWizard
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 09:07:35 pm
content: Yeah, I'm not so sure.https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/trendsinukimportsandexportsoffuels/2022-06-29

author: chickenHeadKnob
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 09:23:48 pm
content: I don't see how solar panels would help with the macro energy problem for northern Europe. For Spain Portugal and Italy, yes, as maximum insolation coincides nicely with max base load. The equation for British Columbia (my location) is even worse as our winters are notoriously cloudy. Micro hydro works for us as we have coastal mountains but there you either go small scale clandestine/stealth or attract regulators.1.29 euro for 1kw-hr. Ouch, I can feel your pain from across the pond.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 09:39:44 pm
content: Seems like now might be a good time to start building some modern nuke plants. Actually 10 years ago would be a good time, but that's going to be difficult. Best not to get too dependent on a resource that you depend almost entirely on a foreign nation supplying. I'm hopeful that we (the USA) learn the same lesson but I am not optimistic.

author: Squarewave
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 09:43:50 pm
content: It's become an increasing problem, perhaps, with more and more electronic devices over the years and the push for electric cars will only worsen the demand/supply issues.

author: JPortici
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 09:53:40 pm
content: Quote from: tom66 on August 24, 2022, 06:45:08 pmYes it is. brokers were gambling on gas futures at least since april 2021. At that time they had already moved on from steele/wood/etc and chips. Current gas and fuel prices were in effect about two months before the whole russia/ucraine war.At that time a couple of those guys told me brace yourself for next winter.I said how can you sleep at night?They said: this is how the world works.You can imagine what i would do to these people and their pretend world that has very real consequences to the average joe.Financing world gamlbing is behind everything from the raw materials price craze to chippageddon to the current energy crisis. There is no reason for current prices. Supply is there, reserves are full, and yet prices don't go down because "the market" and as all chip companies are pushing record revenues while they have "no stock" oil companies are doing the exact same. Though this time governments are not going after them for some reason

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 10:30:13 pm
content: I have a chimney, and an open fireplace, and maybe I'll consider buying a chainsaw, there is plenty of trees around. Though you are also already too late to cut down trees, it needs months to dry out. Apparently deforestation is an issue back in the old country.Honestly, IDK. I have district heating, coming from a coal fired plant (yuk I know, this is what comes with the house). I'm not even connected to the gas network. But the Dutch government in their infinite wisdom, set the same price for district heating than gas heating. Maybe now they finally change this to something sensible, like paying based on costs. It's literally beyond my control.Quote from: bingo600 on August 24, 2022, 07:35:33 pmI was just calculating that above something like 60c/kwh, it is cheaper to power your house from a diesel generator. This has to be some sort of joke, or someone is making extra profit.

author: MT
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 10:56:42 pm
content: Quote from: tom66 on August 24, 2022, 06:45:08 pmYou can also join Dont Pay UK.https://dontpay.uk

author: AndyBeez
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 11:26:55 pm
content: From the UK: British consumers are set to pay most of their incomes this winter to help fatten the fat cat energy speculators, profiteers and sanctions flouting oligarks. And the British government tells the brits this is the price we must all pay for freedom. Meanwhile, the British government is enjoying one of it's biggest tax windfalls in history. Across all free western governments, it is in their self interest to spin out this crisis for as log as tax payers have money left to tax. Maybe our leaders are going to invest in solar roadways?Look out Australia, there's a load of europeans on their way for your summer heat, as the air fare is likely cheaper than boiling kettle of water by November.

author: SiliconWizard
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 24, 2022, 11:55:55 pm
content: Quote from: AndyBeez on August 24, 2022, 11:26:55 pmFunny, the french president said EXACTLY the same sentence:https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/payer-le-prix-de-notre-liberte-macron-doit-s-expliquer-sur-son-appel-aux-francais-estime-ciotti-20220822I bet many other european countries got the same message to the letter.I'm sure this "political marketing" is pure coincidence.

author: Squarewave
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: August 25, 2022, 01:47:23 am
content: Quote from: MT on August 24, 2022, 10:56:42 pmDoesn't look like a lot of interest. They need 1 million until they hit the button.

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 25, 2022, 08:22:35 am
content: Is the issue caused by speculation? Really?Speculators make profit between the buy-sell spread; they attempt to profit from small changes in price. They do not generally profit from the price of the commodity itself, not for gas at least. This is because they don't usually store gas (that's expensive) and they don't produce it. So if the hypothesis that this high gas price is caused by speculation, then where is all of this storage, holding gas back from the market?The "Don't Pay" campaign is silly. I understand that people are struggling and they may simply be unable to pay. However, the energy retailers, the companies who buy energy for their customers on the wholesale market, don't make a huge amount of money in any typical year. In a good year they'd make £25 per customer for a gas and electric contract, for a whole year. They're already making a loss at the current SVR tariff because the wholesale price has jumped even further ahead of the capped price, at least for the UK. The anger is directed at the wrong people and risks further collapse of the energy retail market and higher costs for all.

author: BravoV
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 25, 2022, 08:52:20 am
content: Quote from: Squarewave on August 24, 2022, 08:50:07 pmDo you believe those fuel or even gas is not coming from Russia ? Then I have a bridge to sell you.Just try to search for news sources, there are two facts, India purchased multiple folds compared to previous year, for the oil from Russia as they got discounted price, and then the distilled results say like diesel fuel is transferred/offloaded quietly in the middle of ocean to some "Western brokers" ships, and then ship it to EU countries and UK included.Other fact, is when the Ukraine invasion started, within days there were massive sanctions against Russia, one of them is stopping the insurance cover on oil/gas shipment thru sea for Russia energy product, but now, few weeks ago, this particular sanction is "QUITELY"lifted, believe you're smart enough to guess what is that purpose, right ?While your country's elites and those brokers are laughing their way to the bank, as the peasants like you are happy with that exorbitant price of energy while the main stream medias keep yelling "Stick it to Putin" and pay more as you are true patriot.Point is, there are no countries have spare capacity to cover the energy supply lost from Russia, expecting oil/gas producing countries have excessively and idle spare capacity that able to replace Russia's output is naive.Meanwhile , German's economy looks really-really dark ahead, have a friend working with German's chemical giant BASF, that employees now are so worry that mass lay off is going to happen, as the energy cost is too much for the factory to even run, let alone makes profit. This short commentary below explain the situation really well.Remember, when German's economy collapsed, it will drag down the whole EU countries as most EU countries (public secret) are sucking on German's money to survive.

author: Miyuki
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: August 25, 2022, 08:58:30 am
content: Firstly all that push toward natural gas was based on false premises. Because when taken with transport and mining loses its GWP is worst of all fuels by a huge margin.I wonder how economically hard it will be to switch for some industries to Propane as its price is low/stable now. It tends to be like two times the price of Natural gas, but its price jumps ten times while propane is bound to the oil price and that is relatively stable.I know you will need a relatively expensive tank to start but gas boilers are the same, some just need to change jets or adjust the pressure, and some modern ones with lambda sensors will probably self-regulate. And changing jest in the burner is a matter of a few €The main problem is messed-up energy policy of the EUFor me personally, it does not hit me as I use firewood during winter to heat the house and water. And using electricity from a company with plenty of nuclear power at a relatively stable price, there is a price increase like 60+% compared to previous years, but nothing crazy like many times more.

author: Messtechniker
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: August 25, 2022, 09:02:33 am
content: Check any window and door seals by inserting a piece of paper between frame and seal and then pull the piece of paper out. If there is no resistance, replace the seal.In the case of wood frames, fit seals made of silicone for compensation of any wood shrinkage. Simply replacing with the same type of seal will usually not cut it in this case.