New Zealand Earth Quake - Christchurch @ 7.8 - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 05:03:27 am
content: Hopefully, you guys down there are all AOK.My condolence to anyone who was harmed, or lost property due to the earlier New Zealand earth quake and tsunami.Best wishes(edit: corrected a typo)

author: hamster_nz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 05:48:08 am
content: Got a big shock at midnight, there is only couple of deaths, and few injuries, but the damage to infrastructure is epic.Check out the attached picture from a news helicopter - NZ is a long skinny country, and losing a state highway for months is going to hurt - it is a 7 hour detour to head north (and for land freight to get southThe road is well munted.

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 06:24:39 am
content: Quote from: hamster_nz on November 14, 2016, 05:48:08 amWow! Excellent photo - it gave me a sense of how devastating it was. Sure glad no train was on the track.

author: Cubdriver
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 06:59:14 am
content: Holy crap!! That does not look good.-Pat

author: hamster_nz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 07:34:20 am
content: Heres two more pictures - three lucky cows!A lot of the damage wasn't directly from the shaking, but the landslides it caused.I just realised that in the swcond photo all the dark seaweed was below the low tide line. Quite a bit of uplift has gone on.

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 07:43:08 am
content: Yeah it was around midnight last night, was nearly asleep in bed and I felt it as a gentle shaking....but I was 1k Km away.Hanging light fittings swayed back and forth....no it wasn't what I had to drink....it was real.Tsunami (tidal wave) warnings, the whole deal.Our thoughts are with those that have had their lives shattered, we're just lucky it wasn't close to our major towns.But our main highway #1 south is buggered and will be impassable for many weeks. That alone will be a massive disruption to business and with our summer tourism season just starting....just what we needed.....not.Yeah so I'm still around to torment you all some more.

author: DTJ
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 08:02:25 am
content: Quote from: rs20 on November 14, 2016, 07:25:45 amCheers RS20, i deleted the link. It was misleading.

author: Mr.B
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 08:08:08 am
content: Big stuff here in Nelson today.Our swimming pool was overflowing last night due to recent rain... this morning it was 200mm down... slopped out shortly after midnight.Bad tremors all day.A bit of serious damage at work, but nothing insurance will not cover.A fair bit of damage for Nelson in general, but not nearly as much as the north east of the south island.Our hearts go out to those who have lost things important and close to them.Unfortunately it will be many months before roads are reestablished to these regions.Stand tall Kaikoura...

author: sleemanj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 08:14:18 am
content: The ruination of State Highway 1 is incredible, and I say this as a Christchurch resident where earthquake ruination is commonplaceThat said, not exactly unforeseen - rockfall, minor slips, and washout are common along the Kaikoura coast, it's so long overdue for improving that road - somehow - it's just not funny, of course the options are limited, and expensive, but so will who knows how long of SH1 (and the main trunk line) being out of action, a lot of slips, some of which are gargantuan, bridges are broken, road surface is smashed and cracked all over the place...Count ourselves lucky that Lewis and Arthurs pass seem to be OK, but the truckies are going to have much longer journeys for quite a while that's for sure, I guess it's redundancy, but when both the alternative routes cross the alpine fault there is a lot of luck involved in them not also being impassable.

author: apelly
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 08:41:33 am
content: Quote from: sleemanj on November 14, 2016, 08:14:18 amThat's OK. We don't need much from down your way, anyway.

author: apelly
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 08:43:26 am
content: But seriously. Sucks to be the family and friends of the dead people, but it could have been a hell of a lot worse.We can only hope that Wellington doesn't suffer a major lunch time aftershock like Christchurch did.

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 09:17:59 am
content: Quote from: apelly on November 14, 2016, 08:43:26 amWellywood got a good rattling out of this. Pics I saw on TV earlier today showed broken glass everywhere and plenty of cracked buildings. In my daughter's 12th floor apartment lots of her stuff was strewn about and there are cracks in the walls.Good thing she'd overnighted for work further away from the shake.

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 09:24:14 am
content: Quote from: Rick Law on November 14, 2016, 06:24:39 amThere was and still is and will be there for a while.Caught between 2 big landslides.

author: TiN
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 02:08:03 pm
content: Quakes always scary, especially in dense urban areas. Here in Taiwan they M6+ happen at least once a year, mostly on east coastal area, but still can be felt all over the island.My apartment on 10F always get swayed back and forth even on M5 ones. Awareness of quakes is always in your mind, even when doing regular lab work. Like not to stack stuff without better than required support.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 04:18:34 pm
content: Quote from: tautech on November 14, 2016, 07:43:08 amI had the same idea in my first (and hopefully last) earthquake experience. I thought my legs where giving up so I sat down but then I saw the lamps and clothe hangers swinging. No this wasn't in the NL.QuoteSomehow that does make me happyI hope the damage is (mostly) material but seeing the amount of destruction I fear that won't be the case.

author: calexanian
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 07:05:06 pm
content: Sounds like there was not much of a human cost. Things can always be rebuilt. People, not so much. Good day to be in the construction business though.

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 07:08:05 pm
content: Quote from: TiN on November 14, 2016, 02:08:03 pmTaiwan is also on or near the ring of fire.Something unsettling, last time when a New Zealand quake occurred, around the same time as a quake in Chile - South America's pacific side near the ring of fire. This time, the was one in Argentina, much smaller (mag 6.2) but it happened. Argentina is on the Atlantic side, but this quake occur near the border with Chili, so it could be the ring of fire being too active.It would not be nice pacific-wide if the ring of fire is firing. Places like Japan or Seattle (Washington) can be hurt bad since they too are very near the ring of fire and at tsunami risk if the ring of fire is firing.

author: bitseeker
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 07:59:00 pm
content: Hope all our NZ friends are doing OK. I was exploring both islands a few years ago and Christchurch was still recovering from the previous big quake. I was shocked to hear that another major one hit so close and so soon.

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 08:20:44 pm
content: Quote from: bitseeker on November 14, 2016, 07:59:00 pmLuckily Christchurch was far enough away to escape much of the damage of this latest one/s,in fact the thread title is a little misleading as the epicentre was some 150 KM away.But further north and all the way to Picton in the Marlborough Sounds there has been much roading damage, a member Wilgil is stuck at his residence and can't get to work in Blenheim some 30 KM away.This quake has severely damaged the rural areas, some pics I've seen the fields look like a mining site.Another showed a say 100M2single storey house moved nearly its full length off its foundation.http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/video.cfm?c_id=1&gal_cid=1&gallery_id=167859The wife and I drove the coast road in February, the areas where it travels along the coast are very picturesque but windy as the road has been chiseled into the toe of the hills so hopefully this disaster will give the authorities the chance to improve it some.

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 08:38:18 pm
content: Quote from: Rick Law on November 14, 2016, 07:08:05 pmI believe we all will see similar quakes in the next few weeks as we are in a moon phase where it's the closest it's been to Earth for40+67 years. The gravitational forces it applies will add some additional stress to the tectonic plates worldwide and there will be some ruptures, let's just hope their not near heavily populated areas.Our "Super moon" is tonight.

author: hamster_nz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 08:52:20 pm
content: Quote from: tautech on November 14, 2016, 08:38:18 pmWith approx 20 mag 7+ earthquakes occurring each year (last year was 19, this year is 17 so far) I'll wager 2:1 odds on $10 that that no other 7+ earthquake will occur anywhere for a week from noon NZDT today. Are you keen Tautech? It might be an easy $20 for you!

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 09:08:45 pm
content: Some links for those interested:http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318010/earthquake-in-pictureshttp://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86416268/severe-66-earthquake-hits-hamner-springs-felt-as-far-away-as-aucklandThis what we're using to see where quakes are:https://www.geonet.org.nz/quakes/region/canterbury/statisticsHave a play around with settings in the Quake Map

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 09:14:54 pm
content: Quote from: hamster_nz on November 14, 2016, 08:52:20 pmI learnt decades ago not to second guess nature.....you get what you're given and just have to deal with it.Now if you'd bought some gear from me and I could bet with what was once your money.......

author: apelly
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 10:39:54 pm
content: Quote from: tautech on November 14, 2016, 09:08:45 pmYou're better than me. I was looking for this the other day and failed to navigate their website properly apparently. Thanks for the link.

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 10:52:21 pm
content: Quote from: apelly on November 14, 2016, 10:39:54 pmNah, I'm just nosey to see what's going on......let you fingers do the walking.There's a lot of info in the Geonet site but not all of it obvious.It was only when I was in Chch around a year ago and felt my first ever quakes, 2 in 3 days (3.2 & 3.that I ever spent much time looking at it before then.So Sunday night when the big one happened I jumped on it pronto and at that time they registered it as a 6.8 but of course its been upgraded since.

author: hendorog
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 11:03:27 pm
content: USGS has this pic which I thought was interesting - the star is the epicentre and yet the shaking was high all the way up to Welly.http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us1000778i#map?ShakeMapStations=true&shakemapSource=us&shakemapCode=us1000778iReports seem to be that the quake was 'complex' and apparently involved several faults all going off at almost the same time. Might explain why it was reported as being in Hamner, Culverden and Kaikoura, yet Wellington was badly hit too.On the North side of Banks Peninsula the tsunami did some damage in an isolated bay - believe it was due to an unlucky alignment with the wave and the narrow shape of the bay :http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86443298/Little-Pigeon-Bay-cottage-smashed-by-tsunami-waves

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 11:15:55 pm
content: Thanks for that site, another in the same that's interesting too:http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us1000778i#region-infoZoom in and out on the maps too to get a better perspective of how it relates as to where in NZ.

author: apelly
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 11:35:30 pm
content: Quote from: tautech on November 14, 2016, 10:52:21 pmSo it would seem.As I say; I was looking for some stuff not that long ago and came up nearly empty.Also interesting is the lack of a .govt.nz website for this stuff. Youcantrack down a link to geonet via a .govt.nz site though. That was all I had to go on as far as credibility was concerned. Also of interest ishttps://www.gns.cri.nz/which appears to be essentially the same crowd, but who seem to have bought their domain from a domain squatter. Very odd.

author: Mr.B
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 11:47:00 pm
content: I really feel for the businesses in Kaikoura.The vast majority rely on tourist trade.With no roading infrastructure for maybe 2 or 3 months there will be almost no tourists over the summer season.The flow on effect is going to be badly felt by everyone in the community.

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 14, 2016, 11:49:54 pm
content: Quote from: apelly on November 14, 2016, 11:35:30 pmNot at all.GNS is a government dept essentially derived from previous ministries as outlined in their "History" tab:QuoteYeah it pisses me off too, why rebrand all these existing departments, it just confuses everyone.AFAIK Geonet is a govt dept too.

author: sleemanj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 12:19:47 am
content: Quote from: tautech on November 14, 2016, 11:49:54 pmRun by GNS which is a CRI, and EQC.

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 12:24:18 am
content: And to top it all off, our capital Wellington is undergoing a drenching ATM with all of the main roads in & out closed by flooding and landslides.All I've got on this so far is a rain radar shot:Source:http://metvuw.com/radar/radar.php?location=nz

author: apelly
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 12:25:33 am
content: Off-topic: Last post about thisQuote from: tautech on November 14, 2016, 11:49:54 pmI disagree. I did see that, but it didn't convince me this was where I should be getting my information from. At the time I was researching tsunami warnings. The civil defence website isn't worth two knobs of goat shit. Auckland council was just as worthless. So I started looking for the govt department that tracks seismological activity.Maybe my google fu was low that day, but I was starting out with zero knowledge, so I was trying to establish some credibility for the limited resources I'd managed to find. In the process of doing this I discovered that a shady domain dude owns cri.nz Why would a govt department buy a sub domain off him? I thought that was odd. And shady.Quote from: tautech on November 14, 2016, 11:49:54 pmAll the cool kids are rebranding, doncha know? Sigh. Why not give them a .govt.nz domain? They have the whole name space to choose from. OK, so technically they're state owned enterprises. How about a .govt.nz page that's easy to find and links to them?Anyway. That's why I was grateful for the linkI was well sick of clicking around websites on this topic by the time the earthquake happened and so all I'd come up with was a hard to filter list of recent country-wide activity./rant

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 12:32:45 am
content: Quote from: apelly on November 15, 2016, 12:25:33 amGotcha now. I didn't dig that deep.Quote from: tautech on November 14, 2016, 11:49:54 pmQuote from: apelly on November 15, 2016, 12:25:33 amYeah, at least we're building a good set of links here for the future.....that's if they're not rebranded again.Let's hope we don't need them.

author: hendorog
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 01:06:05 am
content: Dunno if you guys have found this site, but it was also handy for monitoring the 2011 ChCh earthquakes.Back then IIRC the geonet site wasn't showing live infohttp://www.canterburyquakelive.co.nz/

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 01:26:58 am
content: The inter-island transport nightmare arising from this series of quakes.Once upon a time (sounds like a bedtime story I know) we had 2 inter-island ferry services, one Wellington to Picton (still exists) and another overnighter Wellington to Lyttelton near Christchurch.(ceased some 30 years ago)While the SH1 is being rebuilt this Wellington to Lyttelton service could/should be resurrected as it would save many hours driving the alternative routes, for both passenger cars but more importantly freight which will be heavily impacted upon without either the railways and SH1 operative.Anybody know if there are roll on/off ferry facilities still functional at Lyttelton?Or were they wrecked in the Christchurch quakes 6 years ago?

author: hamster_nz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 04:20:39 am
content: Quote from: tautech on November 15, 2016, 01:26:58 amSadly no working roll-on/roll-off ramps (or whatever they are called by those in the biz) are left in Lyttelton.

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 04:58:12 am
content: Quote from: hamster_nz on November 14, 2016, 08:52:20 pmI'm ready to take that bet now.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/chile/11870682/Tsunami-warnings-after-8.3-magnitude-earthquake-hits-Chile-in-pictures.htmlhttp://www.express.co.uk/news/science/732222/supermoon-earthquake-new-zealand-chile-argentina

author: hendorog
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 05:29:29 am
content: Quote from: tautech on November 15, 2016, 04:58:12 amIANAGP, but logically for the moon to be the straw that breaks the camels back there needs to be a fault close to rupture _that hasn't ruptured already_Therefore you are saying that the relatively small difference in peak tidal forces from yesterday to today is is just enough to tip the fault into rupture. What is the chances of that?If the super moon has a large effect, then as it moves away this effect will diminish. If it diminishes faster than the rate of stress accumulates due to plate movement then there should be no earthquakes for a while - as the supermoon would have ruptured everything that was close to rupturing.So if the supermoon has a big effect then it would have ruptured _nearly_ all of the faults which can rupture already as it approched perigee. And therefore as it moves away there won't be any close to rupture and so there will be period of no quakes.Howzat for some beer o'clock logic

author: rs20
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 06:10:42 am
content: Quote from: tautech on November 14, 2016, 08:38:18 pmI hope you're kidding... the whole Ken Ring saga already happened 3 years ago; all relevant non-cherry-picked records show no significant correlation between moon phase and earthquakes. No need to argue about the plausability of the theory (and I do agree the theory is plausible...until tested); the data shows that the moon is a totally useless predictor of earthquakes. Case closed. I mean come on, you think seismologists didn't think to check this back in 1970?

author: hamster_nz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 06:20:28 am
content: And having just spent a while calculating orbits... what does "the closest it has been" mean?My understanding is that all this means is that the full moon coincides with the moon's perigee, which happens once every 28 days... sure, the angles might be a tiny bit different but the difference in tidal effects between supermoons must be pretty minimal.

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 06:24:40 am
content: Quote from: hamster_nz on November 15, 2016, 06:20:28 amJust that, and nothing at all to do with its 28 day cycle around the Earth.Closest for 67 years is the figure I heard today.

author: apelly
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 06:35:13 am
content: Quote from: tautech on November 15, 2016, 06:24:40 amI'm with hamster_nz. Closest full moon. Not closest perigee.

author: hamster_nz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 06:41:51 am
content: Supermoon in more 'electrical' terms: the phase of the ~28 day orbit has aligned with the phase of the (slightly different) ~28 day full moon cycle....Yep, that is really special

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 07:17:31 am
content: Quote from: rs20 on November 15, 2016, 06:10:42 amJust my POV, you don't have to subscribe to it.Nowhere did I mention Ken Ring whom I have great respect for his long term weather forecast accuracy.However with the current nearly once in 70 year phenomenon don't you think the latest big NZ quake which has been described as the 3rd 7+ magnitude quake in a 100 years in NZ and todays 8.3 event in Chile is entirely coincidence ?I guess you do, but there might be another explanation.......

author: hendorog
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 07:31:12 am
content: Quote from: tautech on November 15, 2016, 07:17:31 amI thought you were kidding about that 8.3 in Chile - I'm guessing the pics were from this 8.3 which happened in 2015https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Illapel_earthquakeUSGS don't know about it anyway (Last 7 days quakes sorted by magnitude) :http://tinyurl.com/hk3ej3fLike I said, if the supermoon causes quakes then by definition there won't be any for a while when it's gone - so you are betting against yourself

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 07:42:51 am
content: My son told me about todays Chile event, he'd seen it on FB or Stuff nz and if it's really 8.3 it's no wonder we haven't heard much about it yet. Poor buggers.Evidently they evacuated 1 million people to the mountains to escape any Tsunami.Tomorrow will tell.

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 08:03:28 am
content: The change in gravity of the supermoon should be around 21% to 32%. That is a actually a lot more than I expected.I cannot find the exact change in distance as it depends on where in the orbit you measure. Web search give me numbers all over the place. So, I just picked two for the range of potential change.For Average distance earth-to-moon, I use wiki's 238,900 milesFor changes, I use UK express' number (http://www.express.co.uk) on distance reduction at22,000 milescloser to earth. I also found other sources (earthsky.org) stating it at 50,000km closer which is 31,000 miles. I use both numbers to get the range.Per Newton, F = G*M1*M2/ R2G*M1*M2is a constant since both the mass of the moon and the mass of the earth wont change, and G, the Gravitational constant being a constant wont change. R is distance between earth and moon, and is the only variable that changed. Supermoon changed by about 22,000 miles.Since I know the constants are going to cancel out in percentage calculation, I can restate that as:F= K / R2At average, earth to moon is 238,900 miles.F= K * ( 1 / R2) = K * ( 1 / 2389002) = K * 1.7521E-11At closest, earth to moon is 22,000 miles closer or 216,900 milesF= K * ( 1 / R2) = K * ( 1 / 2169002) = K * 2.1256E-11Increase of gravity in fraction:((K * 2.1256E-11) - (K * 1.7521E-11) ) / (K * 1.7521E-11) = 0.213So, it is about 21% stronger.Repeating the math with 31,000 miles closer, R=207,900 miles.The number is 32% stronger.So, 21% to 32% stronger.

author: apelly
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 08:33:19 am
content: I don't dispute your numbers.What I'm saying is that supermoon = lunar perigee + full moonPerigee happens every month, occasionally exacerbated by other planets, but rarely coincident with a full moon. The fact that it's a full moon has nothing whatsoever to do with its gravitational effect.

author: hamster_nz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 09:43:47 am
content: Research time...Fromhttps://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.htmlPerigee and time relative to the full/new moon.Code:2014:Jan 1 21:01 356921 km - N+ 9hJan 30 9:59 357079 km - N- 11hFeb 27 19:53 360438 km N-1d12h...2015:..Jan 21 20:07 359642 km N+1d 6hFeb 19 7:31 356991 km - N+ 7hMar 19 19:39 357583 km N- 13h...2016:Oct 16 23:37 357859 km F+ 19hNov 14 11:24 356511 km ++ F- 2hDec 12 23:28 358462 km F-1d 0hWell, I'm surprised - The moonisthe closest is has been for a while by about 480km, which is (0.13%) compared to last Feb 2015.The moon is about 1.2% of the earth's mass, and 57 times further away, so the force from the moon will be around 0.000,003,693 of that due to earth's mass.I was thinking that a 'super new moon' should be worse, as the tidal force from sun's gravity and the moon's gravity are in the same direction, causing them to add, rather than cancelling each other out a bit. And what do you know? there is a term for that: The Proxigean Spring Tide.http://www.astronomycafe.net/qadir/q809.htmlAfter a bit of research I'm now neutral - but if there is "straw that broke the camels back" effect I'm thinking it should be most apparent on "super new moons", but they don't look nice in photos.

author: apelly
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 09:55:45 am
content: Quote from: hamster_nz on November 15, 2016, 09:43:47 amThanks for that. I couldn't be bothered.Quote from: hamster_nz on November 15, 2016, 09:43:47 amWhy are you neutral? You think it only affects New Zealand because of our relatively small land area compared to other countries? I'm with you on the super new moon though. But for the planet.I might be about to be wrong very loudly, but I'm sure it's understood that our planet changes shape from gravitational interference. I would have expected the constant moving to cause planet-fatigue, rather than a tiny, tiny extra force causing stress fractures.

author: hamster_nz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 10:08:02 am
content: Quote from: apelly on November 15, 2016, 09:55:45 amI'm only neutral because if it had a noticeable measurable effect it would show in the data and be accepted science by now - people have been recording tides for ages and unusually high tides causing earthquake would be pretty simple dots for people to connect,Even if it is theoretically possible at the moment it has zero real predictive powers, and sound like faith more than geophysics

author: apelly
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 10:23:58 am
content: Quote from: hamster_nz on November 15, 2016, 10:08:02 amI don't even think it's theoretically possible, that is why I am not neutral. It's a nonsense.But it's late. And I stopped thinking an hour or two ago.

author: apelly
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 10:30:40 am
content: Haven't watched. Might be relevant.Thunderf00t just tweeted this about the moon:

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 06:55:03 pm
content: Quote from: apelly on November 15, 2016, 08:33:19 amYeah, I understand the other factors. I was trying to verify if it really was in the range of a credible earthquake starter. So, this was a quick gauge of "worst case" gravitational increase for closest approach only. My gut feel was only about 5%-ish, not 20-30% the math shows.The 20-30% range puts supermoon in the credible earthquake starter range easily. All the rocks would have been 20-30% lighter and static friction decreased correspondingly. Along with the crust/plates trying to push upward/float higher (Archimedes' principle)...Time to have UN pass a resolution to repeal Newton's law. These colonial sciences are not benefiting mankind.

author: hendorog
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 07:07:16 pm
content: Quote from: Rick Law on November 15, 2016, 06:55:03 pmAh thats a negatory. Presumably just a slip of the keyboard.It's just the moons component of the net G force which is reduced. The moons component is still much tiny compared to the G. force of the earth.

author: rs20
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 15, 2016, 11:01:43 pm
content: Quote from: hendorog on November 15, 2016, 07:07:16 pmMoreover, the G force on a rock isn't going to place any stress on the rock on its own. For example, being on the Earth, inside an elevator which is dropping at an accelerating 9.8 metres per second squared, feels the same as being in orbit, or indeed floating in space a billion miles from anything. What's important is thevariationof the gravity force across the rock, which to some extent is what the term "tidal" kinda means. If a supermassive black hole was popped into existence the right distance from Earth, the whole solar system could be shot sideways at 100 meters per second squared, with no ill effect on the Earth. Gravity != tidal force. Only when the gravity force on one side of the rock is different to the other side, do you have a stress within the rock.Since the moon is so far away, 1/(distance to moon)^2 is very close to 1/(distance to moon+diameter of rock)^2, meaning that the tiny net G force from the moon has to be multiplied by yet another vanishingly small factor to arrive at thestressfelt by a rock within the earth's crust, as opposed to the irrelevant acceleration with respect to an arbitrary reference frame. Even when diameter-of-rock equals diameter-of-earth, we only end up with ~1 m of displacement across the entire Earth, both in rock and water.Also, again,seismologists already looked at the data years ago and no correlation was found. So all this discussion is obsolete anyway, albeit entertaining.

author: hendorog
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 16, 2016, 12:37:49 am
content: Quote from: rs20 on November 15, 2016, 11:01:43 pmYep I concur.QuoteInterestingly there is apparently a more recent study from Japanese scientists using more data which shows some degree of correlation. In the article I read it said something like '...a very small correlation...'.I couldn't find the article, but google found this:http://www.nature.com/news/moon-s-pull-can-trigger-big-earthquakes-1.20551

author: rs20
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 16, 2016, 02:43:31 am
content: Quote from: hendorog on November 16, 2016, 12:37:49 amDoes "a very small correlation", barely reaching statistical significance, justify rhetoric like this?:Quote

author: hendorog
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 16, 2016, 02:52:24 am
content: Quote from: rs20 on November 16, 2016, 02:43:31 amNope, but of course that comment was old mate tautech - not me.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 18, 2016, 12:39:21 pm
content: I just read in the news that the biggest islands of NZ got 2 meters closer together and that parts of NZ got pushed up quite a bit. Holy crap (*)! Talking about force of nature.* The Pope's doo-doo

author: hendorog
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 18, 2016, 06:46:22 pm
content: Quote from: nctnico on November 18, 2016, 12:39:21 pmThe stuff we are seeing in the news is quite incredible.Check out the sea-life exposed by the uplift:http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86476242/divers-and-volunteers-band-together-to-save-stranded-shellfish-and-sea-lifeAnd the opposite of uplift:http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86621345/Earthquake-creates-a-new-geographical-landmark-in-HurunuiThe green stuff at the bottom of this hill used to be at the top:https://www.youtube.com/embed/XkaNMhjeuF4We got a new chicane and a new sea pool:And a new Dam (now retired from service):One of the faults moved 10m horizontally...! (Edit: e.g. check out the dirt tracks in this video tautech posted earlier)http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/video.cfm?c_id=1&gal_cid=1&gallery_id=167859

author: raptor1956
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: November 18, 2016, 06:53:24 pm
content: Many years ago, back before dinosaurs and man roamed the Earth together, you know, before 6000 years ago, when the Moon was REAL close to the Earth it was estimated that the tides were more than a mile high -- I'd guess that would have had some effect on earthquake activity.Yes, joking about the dinos and man thing...Brian

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 19, 2016, 12:55:59 am
content: Quote from: nctnico on November 18, 2016, 12:39:21 pmHaven't found any official survey measurements yet though we've heard from the media that from 10's of mm's to meters of horizontal and vertical movement all over our South Island.Bit more on that here:https://yournz.org/2016/11/18/measuring-ground-movement/

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 19, 2016, 02:21:23 am
content: Quote from: hendorog on November 15, 2016, 07:07:16 pmRight, it is the moon's component only. I should have said that. Earth's gravity (which is the major source of the weight of the rock) obviously didn't change. So I omitted that saying that thinking it would be obvious, but not saying it did introduced confusion.

author: mrpackethead
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 21, 2016, 09:24:10 am
content: Quote from: tautech on November 15, 2016, 12:24:18 amWe got nearly 280mm of rain in 24 hours. Heres what happended in my little village.We've just removed 6m3 of silt out of the workshop

author: hamster_nz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 21, 2016, 09:40:25 am
content: Quote from: mrpackethead on November 21, 2016, 09:24:10 amI know I shouldn't, but it really makes me smile....I only added it as I was really interested in seeing the flooding, and it was such a small amount of my screen! (I used to cycle around there).

author: boz
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: November 21, 2016, 06:10:04 pm
content: Mostly reminded me not to get complacentMy workshop gradually gets more messy over time and I was at peak mess when it hit so had a nice morning picking up about a thousand 0805 components that fell on the floor and sorting them back into their case also my old big heavy analog supply which I had put on the top shelf fell on to one of my scope and totalled it (the old owon one not the new rigol thankfully!)Still getting aftershocks, though the workshop is much tidier now :-)Still the clean air and the view out my window, I wouldn't live anywhere else

author: mrpackethead
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: November 21, 2016, 06:22:17 pm
content: yeah, did'nt think too much abouting teh vertical thing, as i was taking those bits of video to forward to the local Emergency Managment Office., was'tn till i sat down a little bit later i thought, oh bugger.NB. Looks fine on a phone.