economic dollar value of cracked encryption? - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: coppercone2
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 07, 2018, 10:26:54 pm
content: Can anyone hazard a guess in the billions of dollars how much value a quantum computer that can crack military encryption would be worth in terms of things like military logistics and planning? Like if a super power had one of these things, how much money could it realistically save without disclosing itself?would make for a fun book I think

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 07, 2018, 10:33:26 pm
content: **$0.00**Assuming 007 James Bond gets to you first. Before you can spend any of your highly illegal generated ill gotten gains, via your possibly impossible to easily invent quantum computer.

author: coppercone2
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 07, 2018, 10:34:35 pm
content: I mean with things like knowing which areas to patrol, point your radars.. not market manipulation and industrial espionagenon criminal activities

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 07, 2018, 11:19:42 pm
content: Quote from: coppercone2 on September 07, 2018, 10:34:35 pmWhen you make the law very little has to be illegal or criminal.

author: coppercone2
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 08, 2018, 12:13:29 am
content: can you just play along in the estimation experiment rather then questioning human morality and corruption

author: DimitriP
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 08, 2018, 12:31:34 am
content: Quotethe more they "save" , the more they are "disclosing themselves".In the spirit of "playing along", no more that 28 million dollars. Any additional "savings" will be pocketed by those who can.So what's the next off topic topic?

author: coppercone2
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 08, 2018, 02:08:57 am
content: i wonder if some kind of economic estimate can be based on the cracking of nazi encryption in ww2

author: Brumby
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 08, 2018, 02:14:53 am
content: As depicted in the movie "The Imitation Game", the mechanics of cracking the code is just one part of that equation. There must be judicious use of that knowledge to maximise the benefit from it - and that, in itself, presents some rather significant moral issues.

author: coppercone2
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 08, 2018, 02:17:53 am
content: I wonder if it would save any money or all the offices and decoys that are developed would end up costing the same or more

author: Domagoj T
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 08, 2018, 06:37:00 am
content: This site estimates total WWII cost of $14 trillion (inflation adjusted), over 6 years.https://www.quora.com/What-was-the-financial-cost-of-WW2There are various estimates of just how much cracking the Enigma helped and shortened the war, but it ranges between two and four years.So, back of the envelope calculation brings our number to somewhere between 4,5 and 9 trillion USD.

author: coppercone2
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 08, 2018, 09:09:39 am
content: How can that be extrapolated for peace? or cold war technological development (i.e. writing specs?)

author: Domagoj T
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 08, 2018, 01:55:20 pm
content: Well, one could argue that war is beneficial for economy in the long run.It certainly is for technological advancement.In any case, I don't consider governmental spending inside the country as wasted money since it just reenters the budget after in exchanges hands a few times.

author: coppercone2
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 08, 2018, 02:38:41 pm
content: Quote from: Domagoj T on September 08, 2018, 01:55:20 pmI don't know if people in the defense industry buying foreign cars and properties out of country is money reentering government hands

author: David Hess
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 10, 2018, 06:34:43 pm
content: Might as well ask about all advances in cryptography which are unknown to the public.For instance RSA is very well understood and crackable with a suitably large quantum computer which so far does not exist however ECC is less so and the NSA has a habit of releasing suggested ECC parameters without describing their origin. With enough precomputation, maybe they could have a classical machine large enough to crack the ECC encryption that they suggest.To borrow a signals intelligence aphorism, if you cannot crack an encryption algorithm, get them to change it to one you can crack.Note that I am not claiming any special knowledge about ECC vulnerabilities. I just do not trust the NSA (or NIST) and anything that they suggest for encryption anymore. They have both been caught advocating deliberately compromised security standards in recent history.

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 10, 2018, 07:59:00 pm
content: Quote from: coppercone2 on September 08, 2018, 02:08:57 amOne can probably estimatecostto crack it a lot better than one can estimatevalueof having cracked it. Estimating value would be guessing possibly future path which may or may not occur. Like trying to evaluatewhat ifJuan Pujol García (aka "Garbo") was killed in traffic accident say in 1943, hence he would not be around in 1944 to fool Hitler into believing with conviction that Normandy was really just a diversion... Would the landing fail? No one can guess that.Cracking of the Enigma is rather well documented. So, one can presumably do the research and add up the cost. Estimating what history would have been had Enigma not been cracked would be pure conjecture.The effort to crack Enigma was more spread out. Another interesting one that was more contained (effort-wise) was breaking of the Japanese Navy's JN-25 code during WW II. The signal interception effort was spread out - USA, British, Austrian, and others were doing the signal intercept, but the cracking was done all by USN Commander Joseph Rochefort's team. Midway was no doubt the turning point in the Pacific. About a dozen officers/sailors for two years, starting with cracking earlier codes which we could consider as experience building to eventual JN-25 cracking work. Calculating that cost of cracking is easy. With good research, you may even be able to attribute the cost to specific officers/sailors. But how would one estimate "what if USA didn't know it was target Midway?"

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 10, 2018, 09:07:25 pm
content: Quote from: David Hess on September 10, 2018, 06:34:43 pmWith what we know now about the NSA we shouldn't trust their advice any further than you can throw one of their employees.