solar is now confirmed to be much cheaper :) - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: f4eru
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2020, 05:17:46 pm
content: Hello,I think IEA realized a bit late that solar is cheaper than anything else:https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-ieait's been a reality for 4 years at least.Interesting that they recognize home office as a significant factor in CO2 reduction !But their predictions are worthless as usual.Now, we need storage and/or long distance transmission.And also multiplying PV generation by factor 10. Won't be easy, but there's now much financial incentive to do so.

author: NiHaoMike
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2020, 07:25:15 pm
content: Quote from: f4eru on October 18, 2020, 05:17:46 pmTime for an open hardware thermal storage system? Would go a long ways to solve the problem for areas that have significant HVAC load.

author: coppice
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2020, 07:30:19 pm
content: Like many price comparisons, the cheapest electricity depends on who you ask, and how comprehensive/biased their assessment is.

author: mzzj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2020, 07:49:15 pm
content: Great. Now we only need to get rid of winter, clouds and nighttime.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2020, 07:59:32 pm
content: Quote from: mzzj on October 18, 2020, 07:49:15 pmIndeed. Electricity itself sucks where it comes to transportation and storage. It is like those deals where you get a castle for free with the requirement to restore & maintain it.

author: fourfathom
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2020, 08:14:43 pm
content: Quote from: nctnico on October 18, 2020, 07:59:32 pmI would think that electricity is the best when it comes to transportation. Storage is a big issue though.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2020, 08:25:27 pm
content: Quote from: fourfathom on October 18, 2020, 08:14:43 pmNo. Transporting electricity is expensive. If I look at my electricity bill I see about a third of the costs is transport / distribution. And that is with a power station at less than 30km away. Even if the electricity price would become half then my electricity bill will only get 16% lower.

author: fourfathom
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2020, 08:33:12 pm
content: Quote from: nctnico on October 18, 2020, 08:25:27 pmBut compare this to the alternatives. Yes, if you produce your own electricity on-site you don't have to pay for the transportation infrastructure build and maintenance (other than your own), but I believe that any other form of energy delivery will cost more per kWh delivered.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2020, 09:01:15 pm
content: Quote from: fourfathom on October 18, 2020, 08:33:12 pmNo. Natural gas is pretty cheap to distribute for example.

author: HackedFridgeMagnet
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2020, 10:43:36 pm
content: Quote from: nctnico on October 18, 2020, 09:01:15 pmHow so? I'd like to see a cost comparison.In my case there is no gas connection to our entire suburb. Nearest pipe is 20km away. Can't be that cheap.We have to buy bottled LPG gas.Unless i am missing something I see no reason why electrical distribution would be more costly than gas.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2020, 11:14:12 pm
content: Quote from: HackedFridgeMagnet on October 18, 2020, 10:43:36 pmGas runs losless through a plastic tube which you can make as long as you want. Ofcourse there is the initial investment for the piping but from there maintenance costs are very low. For example: a gas connection costs me 399 euro annually versus the electricity connection costing me 475 euro annually.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2020, 11:48:45 pm
content: Quote from: f4eru on October 18, 2020, 05:17:46 pmHow can it be cheaper than coal and gas when it needs coal and gas as backup?It's almost cheaper than fueling the coal and gas backup plants, but I don't think it's quite there yet.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2020, 11:58:19 pm
content: Quote from: NiHaoMike on October 18, 2020, 07:25:15 pmWithout large financial incentives you can't earn back the investments.Consider the extra cost for burying say a 1000 litre tank in your backyard ... is going to cause labour cost for installing a heat pump system double or more on an existing house.

author: NiHaoMike
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 01:16:02 am
content: Quote from: Marco on October 18, 2020, 11:58:19 pmNo need to bury it, a 1000L IBC tote is not that big. And unlike batteries of equivalent capacity, an empty IBC tote is very easy to move. Pound per pound, if you use the best battery technology that currently exists and couple it with a very good heat pump, you might get about 2-3x as much cooling as ice storage. That shrinks to a mere 1.2-1.8x improvement after derating the batteries to get a good service life out of them. Cheaper lithium batteries typically used for home energy storage are going to be less energy dense than cutting edge batteries, dropping the advantage even further to about equal. Given water being several orders of magnitude cheaper than batteries, the only significant intrinsic downside is that it only works for thermal loads. The bigger problem currently is the lack of control technology to make it work, something that can be solved pretty easily if there's enough demand for it.There are already a few areas where battery storage is making financial sense even on grid, in such areas that also have a lot of HVAC load, thermal storage would make even more sense. So perhaps what we really need are incentives to adapt demand to supply, something programs like OhmConnect are already trying to do. What technology ends up dominating for that application is secondary.

author: f4eru
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 04:56:41 am
content: yes, true. Battery storrage makes economical sense in many areas, even at residential level !The grid level is just now starting to scale....

author: Bud
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 05:21:32 am
content: Quote from: HackedFridgeMagnet on October 18, 2020, 10:43:36 pmHere we receive bills that specify delivery charge separately from what you consumed. Where I live for natural gas delivery charge is an order of magnitude smaller than delivery for electricity.

author: nuclearcat
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 08:12:39 am
content: Quote from: nctnico on October 18, 2020, 11:14:12 pmI can see lot of skepticism about solar - from northern nationsBtw gas not lossless at all, did you saw gas pipelines turbine pumps? Russian ones have many common parts with their military jet engines (means not very efficient), and sure they burn gas while pumping it. Not sure about percentage of losses comparing with electrical distribution lines.

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 09:01:29 am
content: Quote from: nctnico on October 18, 2020, 11:14:12 pmYou confuse bad laws and deals made by the dutch government with actualcostsprice of something. And taxes.The price for electricity / gas / fuel district heating hasnothingto do with the actual costs of these networks and the cost of raw materials, or running costs. Its all set by policies, how a government wants to steer people of using one resource or another.It is a fallacy, that we need to solve the storage of electricity. We dont, not in this decade, maybe the next. It is easy mathematical problem.1) StorageInvest a lot of money into scalable energy storage options. Batteries. The goal is to have emissions on the electricity. There are huge differences between the generation in summer and winter, and storing energy costs a lot more than generating electricity.2) Generation and conversionWe spend the available money to increase solar generation. Since cheap energy is available, with sometimes negative pricing, other technologies gets converted to electricity. Power-to-gas plants are built, that convert electricity to natural gas, very inefficiently, very cheaply. Others will convert shipping routes to run from hydrogen, that is generated during the summer. Farmers install equipment, that runs from electricity, instead of fossil fuels. We dont reduce the electricity network's carbon footprint, we reduce the carbon footprint of everything else. That battery manufacturing capacity is used up by EVs.Option 2) is just better, since it is using existing technology, and it works without disrupting the existing deals. All you need to do is install more solar. If the electricity price is negative during the summer, the industry will use it. They are going to invest in technology that uses electricity, instead of something else, since it makes financial sense.We have to scale up, not scale down. Spend the money intelligently.

author: Kleinstein
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 11:22:43 am
content: The transport of gas in pipelines is not loss-less, but the loss is still not very high. It is a little like high voltage DC: it takes some extra effort to compress and clean the gas first (some 70 bar for the long distance pipelines), but than the additional loss down the stream is not so bad. Still the steel pipes have a limited life time. The local lower pressure lines also don't last forever and they usually have to be buried. With the low pressure there can also be quite some frictional loss, though the pressure is usually there to start with.For the electricity grid AC works well over short distance and a large part of the loss is actually from the last distribution transformer.The costs charged to private customers are not directly related to real costs. In most cases it is one price set for all, so it does not matter if close to a substation or somewhere in the wild. Just the costs to get the initial connection can vary and especially with gas it may not be available everywhere.Comparing the costs for electricity is not easy. PV and wind are not available all time and the conditions vary locally. In Germany we get a little more than 1/2 the sun as in southern Spain, so roughly twice the price here. For the conventional sources it depends on the up time they can get to sell there electricity. Here the low demand at night can be limiting.

author: f4eru
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 11:53:15 am
content: Don't confuse cost and price.They are 2 completely different things, especially in a pooled commodity.The marketed production cost of electricity and it's transport varies a lot, (every 15 minutes by market bidding conventions), sometimes electricity cost is even negative for a few hours in Europe !The price a typical end user pays is set yearly by politicians.

author: mzzj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 12:57:28 pm
content: Quote from: nuclearcat on October 19, 2020, 08:12:39 amIf you have 3 months of winter withzerosunshine hours it makes you both depressed and skepticSaying that solar is cheapest way to produce electricity is same as claiming fusion energy as cheapest heat source. Its just that storing the fusion energy from Teller-Ulam design "needs further research"

author: dr.diesel
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 01:00:59 pm
content: Quote from: Kleinstein on October 19, 2020, 11:22:43 amAgreed!The largest and most powerful electric motor I've ever seen was at a natural gas pumping station, 80,000HP.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 01:53:49 pm
content: Quote from: NANDBlog on October 19, 2020, 09:01:29 amNo. The prices I quoted are for connection and transport only. No taxes included in those numbers. Taxes are a seperate part of the energy bill.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 03:30:17 pm
content: Quote from: NiHaoMike on October 19, 2020, 01:16:02 amIt is for most Dutch row housing

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 03:42:29 pm
content: Quote from: Marco on October 19, 2020, 03:30:17 pmAnd we cannot dig down, because two strikes with a shovel, and the entire country would sink.Quote from: nctnico on October 19, 2020, 01:53:49 pmAnd do you also believe that 95 Octane gas costs 1.3 EUR without tax, because they write the VAT on the bill? Come on.I've seen a foreign electricity bill, that had a separate row for "pension payments for the retired workers of the electricity distribution company".

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 03:50:20 pm
content: Quote from: NANDBlog on October 19, 2020, 09:01:29 amI don't have a problem with solar subsidies, the problem is the combination of lies and stupidity which pretends LCOE is somehow an useful metric.For the near future only in areas where ~10% of the cost of new solar plus the cost of the necessary grid upgrades are cheaper than the fuel it saves in a year, will solar truly be the cheapest option. Everywhere else it will increase the cost of electricity.This disconnect between the fairy tales and the reality will keep creating problems. These aren't little white lies ... these are lies which help get people like Trump elected.

author: coppice
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 04:24:08 pm
content: Quote from: Marco on October 19, 2020, 03:50:20 pmThe fossil fuel companies have a history of devious behaviour. For some reason many people assume companies pushing alternatives will be more ethical, but there is no reason they should be. There is huge money in energy, and no company involved in it should be trusted more than any other.

author: David Hess
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 04:50:52 pm
content: Notice that the article says:new analysis showing that solar power is 20-50% cheaper than thoughtSo they are talking about power and not energy. Is it cheaper once you add in the costs of limited capacity factor and storage, which the article does not even acknowledge?

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 04:52:38 pm
content: Quote from: NANDBlog on October 19, 2020, 03:42:29 pmAgain, the numbers I quoted are a simple addition from what Liander (one of the bigger energy distribution companies) is quoting for having a connection. And it is split in several parts for optimal clarity. Why don't you 'Google it' yourself instead of coming up with comparisons which make no sense at all.And for those unaware: in the NL energy distribution companies are not allowed to be energy supply companies. There is a government mandated split between those two kind of companies.

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 10:34:30 pm
content: Quote from: Marco on October 19, 2020, 03:50:20 pmOh, we agree on that. You know what happened in our neighbor, Belgium? They concluded that solar is now so worth it, that they cut ALL subsidy for it. And they kept the subsidy for coal in the meantime.Quote from: coppice on October 19, 2020, 04:24:08 pmAbsolutely not. I received a targeted mail the other day, that "my postcode area" has been selected for a "special project". I install a solar panel from this company, and lease it from them, and buy electricity from them. So the panel prices were about 30% higher than the quotes I've got, the lease agreement made no sense at all. Electricity was more expensive. I think it was the sort of deal that I can only loose on, and they only can win.

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 19, 2020, 11:37:22 pm
content: Quote from: nctnico on October 19, 2020, 04:52:38 pmWhich part of "those numbers are made up" dont you get??? It costs 40 EUR per year in an eastern EU country to have natural gas delivered to your home. 10 times cheaper, in a country which is larger, with less people living there than here, and colder climate and more usage each year. You also get gigabit speed internet for 10EUR/month.Those numbers on your bills, that they charge you have nothing to do with their actual costs. It is just politics and lobbying, and them charging as much money for something as they can.

author: Circlotron
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 20, 2020, 12:46:43 am
content: Quote from: dr.diesel on October 19, 2020, 01:00:59 pmWow!!!Where live I'm pretty sure they use a gas turbine driven pump. Fenced off area, all under ground with a chimney / exhaust stack. Fuel is available for cost price and no interruptions. If there is no gas for fuel there is also no gas to pump!

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 20, 2020, 01:14:54 am
content: Quote from: nctnico on October 18, 2020, 11:14:12 pmIt's not lossless, there are compressor stations distributed along the pipeline that burn some of the gas, either in large reciprocating engines or in some cases turbine engines to compress the gas and push it down the pipeline. I don't know how the losses compare to those of transmitting electricity but they are certainly there. Gas doesn't bypass the laws of energy and flow through pipes on its own, it has to be pushed and it incurs losses from friction along the way. Gas also leaks, apparently quite a shocking amount of it is lost due to all the various little leaks in the system.Here at least gas is a much cheaper way of providing heat than electric resistance, burn it on premises directly for heat rather than burn it or some other fuel in a power plant, convert a portion of that heat into electricty and then send the electricity here to turn it back into heat. Last time I ran the numbers though an electric heat pump was a slightly cheaper way of heating than burning natural gas. This is going to vary greatly by location though.

author: Circlotron
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 20, 2020, 01:40:34 am
content: A domestic heat pump driven by a small natural gas powered engine would be interesting. Use some of the waste heat for heating directly, and divert some of it through the outdoor end of the heat pump to get the COP high.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 20, 2020, 04:45:19 am
content: Quote from: Circlotron on October 20, 2020, 01:40:34 amThat would be interesting to try as an experiment, and could be done using a semi-hermetic compressor. It's certainly going to be a lot more complex and maintenance intensive though than either an electric heat pump or a gas fired furnace or boiler.

author: f4eru
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 20, 2020, 05:06:43 am
content: Quote from: NANDBlog on October 19, 2020, 10:34:30 pmYep. That's the way to go long term. Solar gets so cheap it doesn't need subsidies. Good !But it's as in germany. Legacy energy companies lobby politics to try very hard to hurt solar, because they see solar as a threat to their profits.Quote from: NANDBlog on October 19, 2020, 10:34:30 pmYeah, politicians are so corrupt it's crazy. but that problem will solve itself very quickly, and gas will replace this coal (and batteries later will replace that gas in a few years down the line)

author: coppice
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 20, 2020, 02:22:10 pm
content: Quote from: Circlotron on October 20, 2020, 01:40:34 amThey are commercially available. I can't remember the names of the makers, but I saw several at a smart grid show 5 or 6 years ago.

author: NiHaoMike
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 21, 2020, 01:03:19 am
content: Quote from: coppice on October 20, 2020, 02:22:10 pmPretty sure it was Yanmar, a manufacturer of high end generators. It's probably just a conventional heat pump coupled with a generator, not an absorption heat pump. Absorption heat pumps are not very efficient. Having it based on a generator and conventional heat pump also opens up the possibility of using the generator to power other stuff and using other sources to power the heat pump.Come to think of it, the exhaust temperature of even a very efficient engine is still well above the boiling point of water. Rather than directly combining it with the cooling water (which is only a little bit above boiling point of plain water at most), what about use it to run a steam engine or Stirling engine to get a bit more power before sending the heat to where it can be used?CHP really is a good complement to solar in cold climates. It runs the most when solar generates the least. And in the long term, it can run on biofuels.