197 page study on impact of geomagnetic storms on power grid - major danger - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 31, 2018, 12:21:47 am
content: This has the potential to be the mother of all disasters if we don't figure out a way to make our power distribution more resilient.Because nuclear power plants go into meltdown without cooling power.That might be addressable by building some on site power backup capacity that did not rely on fossil fuels which might be in short supply after a global solar storm event knocked out infrastructure.This is why it would be a huge mistake to go cashless as many MNCs want us to do. People would starve without any way to pay for food.https://www.ferc.gov/industries/electric/indus-act/reliability/cybersecurity/ferc_meta-r-319.pdfhttp://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/finalBoulderPresentation042611%20%281%29.pdfhttps://www.ferc.gov/industries/electric/indus-act/reliability/cybersecurity/ferc_executive_summary.pdfhttp://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/Singer_GeospaceModels_SWWfinal.pdf

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: January 31, 2018, 12:57:33 am
content: And it will take an actual serious event in order for serious action to be taken.In that sense I kinda wish it would actually happen.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: January 31, 2018, 01:01:10 am
content: Quote from: cdev on January 31, 2018, 12:21:47 amWouldn't make a big difference, people would be screwed either way. ATM's won't work, and human tellers won't work unless they can verify your account electronically.How many people have a stack of cash for such emergencies? (I do)

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 31, 2018, 01:08:48 am
content: We actually got what should have been a major wake up call a few years ago, they actually recorded one of these CMEs from space, it missed the Earth by a few days.,Had it hit us, we would likely still be picking up the pieces.Sure, it registered but not really enough.The credit card and banking industry really want the world to go 'cashless' and - so much that I'm beginning to suspect they have already decided to do it, and nothing is going to stand in their way. If we did that, and then had a CME, whatever countries were dependent on the grid - would see even worse problems than other countries.We need to diversify our energy sources. Be less dependent on "Big Energy".

author: apelly
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: January 31, 2018, 01:35:30 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on January 31, 2018, 01:01:10 amCue the hunt for the safe with the hole in the side...

author: daqq
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 31, 2018, 07:33:46 am
content: QuoteI hope you're storing them in an internet connected smart safe ;-)

author: donotdespisethesnake
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 31, 2018, 10:49:01 am
content: As a student of "collapse" this is an interesting topic..The timescale of modern industrial age is a pinprick in geological time. It's just a question of time before we hit "The Big One", and then it is really a very good question of whether civilisation will survive such an event, since we have zero planning for it. Indeed, modern trend for more interconnection, "just in time" reduces redundancy and makes the prospects even worse.In past eras, events have been severe to catastrophic, but people were largely able to fend for themselves. In many cases, rare environmental events lead to collapse of civilisations. For example, ancient Egyptians knew about droughts, and had large grain stores to cater for several years. When a 40 year drought hit, they ran out. With insufficient food, population and society collapsed. In 2017, world grain stocks are around 700 million tonnes, that is less than half annual consumption...The Carrington Event of 1859 was largely a curiosity then, if it occurred today the effects would be pretty catastrophic. No electricity, no comms, no water, no food, no fuel, no heating, no transport, no hospitals...

author: David Hess
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 31, 2018, 12:19:32 pm
content: Quote from: cdev on January 31, 2018, 12:21:47 amPassive cooling is sufficient if you actually enable it and do not shut it off unlike what happened at Fukushima.QuotePower is only required until the decay heat ... decays ... which takes days. Keeping enough fuel to power the generators that long is trivial.QuoteThey will starve even more quickly with no way to transport the food.Quaternass and the Pitt (Five Million Years to Earth for Americans) has my favorite quote on this subject as well as global climate change:Professor Bernard Quatermass: The will to survive is an odd phenomenon. Roney, if we found out our own world was doomed, say by climatic changes, what would we do about it?Dr. Mathew Roney: Nothing, just go on squabbling like usual.

author: David Hess
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 31, 2018, 12:23:30 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on January 31, 2018, 01:01:10 amWe have had a few week long power outages after major storms and most stores would not accept cash.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 31, 2018, 02:35:52 pm
content: Quote from: David Hess on January 31, 2018, 12:23:30 pmWhat, if anything,didthey accept?

author: David Hess
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 31, 2018, 04:43:35 pm
content: Quote from: tggzzz on January 31, 2018, 02:35:52 pmNothing, they just closed.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 31, 2018, 05:55:08 pm
content: The US is trying to- in the WTO, get countries to NOT stockpile food for disasters. I have tried to understand the rationale for this but whatever it is I don't get it.And don't get me started about India's "Aadhaar" system.Also, "Loss of the Ultimate Heat Sink" will become a real big problem fast if nuclear power plants don't have energy for the continuous circulation of water through their spent fuel cooling ponds.So we really do need to face the reality that things could fall apart and go to great lengths to figure out how to make them more resilient to these known possible disasters.Another thing that could and does happen from time to time, is a very large volcanic eruption that throws a lot of ash into the atmosphere, dramatically reducing solar and wind energy as well as rainfall, for several years.But mathematically, I think the chance of the large solar storm wiping out the power grid is fairly high relative to the others. We're very lucky one hasn't hit us thats that large, yet. We should realize there is value in inefficiency and not make additional changes which will make the chances of disaster even higher.Quote from: donotdespisethesnake on January 31, 2018, 10:49:01 am

author: Galenbo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 31, 2018, 08:40:55 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on January 31, 2018, 01:01:10 amI do, but internet says that's only usable about a week. After that you need gold/silver, conserved food and weapons.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: January 31, 2018, 10:40:32 pm
content: OR we needa power system that doesn't fail globallycausing dozens of nuclear meltdowns, due to justonehuge solar storm!Reading through the documents it seems that before a huge expansion of high tension lines around 1940, the power system was not as vulnerable.Its not rocket science what they need to do. Just break it up into smaller pieces that can operate independently.Quote from: Galenbo on January 31, 2018, 08:40:55 pm

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: February 01, 2018, 10:16:16 pm
content: Quote from: cdev on January 31, 2018, 05:55:08 pmOut of all the thing "peppers" prep for, I also think this is most likely the highest risk major "catastrophe", at least in the major modern cities in highly developed countries.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: February 01, 2018, 10:18:04 pm
content: The Germans have been told to stockpile for at least 10 days worth:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37155060

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: February 01, 2018, 10:41:27 pm
content: Yes- definitely. That what scientists have told me, exactly that. We cant sit on our duffs so to speak about something this dangerous.Quote from: EEVblog on February 01, 2018, 10:16:16 pmRather than blaming this risk on the Russians again it would make more sense for them to just explain that this solar storm issue is a major risk we have that we still have not adequately dealt with, that could cause major disruption.And that the risk is world wide, not just in Eastern/Central Europe.God forbid, if they (we) were simply honest, some genius living among us might come up with a working solution for it?That why I posted this stuff here, because it seems like a problem that could be solved, if we simply put our minds to it a bit more.

author: David Hess
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: February 01, 2018, 10:50:55 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on February 01, 2018, 10:18:04 pm10 days really is not very much. You could survive on granola bars and water if you had to and that would not take up much space at all. I liked canned food for emergencies but that generally requires a stove which I have also.I went through an ice storm here a couple years ago near St. Louis and the problem was without power, there was no way to operate the furnace so it got cold; I basically burned through a month's worth of wood in one week which was just as well because it kept the pipes from freezing. Now I have backup kerosene and propane heating plus a backup generator which can operate the furnace. Since then I've used the backup generator about twice a year.Quote from: cdev on February 01, 2018, 10:41:27 pmThere is a working solution but it costs money. It takes some big resistors to limit the common mode current in the transformers and maintaining the infrastructure to replace the transformers in a reasonable amount of time. Lead time on the transformers in the US now is months to years and that assumes no backlog.

author: donotdespisethesnake
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: February 02, 2018, 08:17:47 am
content: Quote from: David Hess on February 01, 2018, 10:50:55 pmOne of the reports suggests thousands of EHV transformers might need replacing. If only 25% were needed to be replaced for a minimum level of service, that might still be 1000 or more. Presumably manufacturers don't carry large stock of materials, so all the industries and personnel that supply them would need to have priority emergency power.I was prompted to build an emergency stockpile at home after the fuel protests we had a while back in the UK. The government seemed pretty relaxed, emergency services and hospitals had priority on fuel they said. Unfortunately, hospitals need staff, and if the staff can't get to work... Coal is delivered to power stations via diesel trains. The refineries need grid power to produce diesel. It's not enough to try to protect one small sector of society when everything is connected.A 10 day supply is enough to ride through a localised event such as a hurricane, where aid can be organised and brought in from other regions. But what if every region had a "hurricane" type event simultaneously?

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: February 02, 2018, 09:00:39 am
content: Why did I know this is a cdev thread from just reading the title?

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: February 02, 2018, 01:29:42 pm
content: Whatever could be done to make the system less likely to fail should be done. We should attempt to create alternative power arrangements that don't require long distance lines.Quote from: donotdespisethesnake on February 02, 2018, 08:17:47 amAs this is a global problem, these should be a global response, especially where it comes to preventing the 'ultimate heat sink' problem with nuclear power plants so we don't get a hundred Fukushimas all at the same time, along with losing our power.

author: mikeselectricstuff
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: February 02, 2018, 02:02:03 pm
content: Not reaf it yet, but I'd guess that the damage is most likely where the magnetic event causes a breakdown, which allows current to flow from the line and do the actual damage, so if a serious CME is detected, shutting down the lines temporarily could limit damage significantly

author: donotdespisethesnake
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: February 02, 2018, 06:25:23 pm
content: Quote from: cdev on February 02, 2018, 01:29:42 pmGetting people to pay more now for "theoretical" risks in the future is really hard. There seem to be some deep-seated reasons why that happens.Any suggestions on what are the alternatives to long distance lines?

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: February 02, 2018, 06:32:38 pm
content: Quote from: donotdespisethesnake on February 02, 2018, 06:25:23 pmThe deep-seated issue is that we're evolved to act upon short term dangers and rewards very well. We have nothing similar to deal with long term dangers. We can use reasoning, but that's a lot less potent that actual hormones and other bodily systems. To make matters worse, or short term reward system easily overpowers this reasoning until it's too late. Get the banana now or fix some problem in the distance that you're only a small part of? Banana wins every time.

author: donotdespisethesnake
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: February 02, 2018, 06:33:38 pm
content: Quote from: mikeselectricstuff on February 02, 2018, 02:02:03 pmThe damage occurs when the transformer cores saturate and the flux causes excess heating when it flows outside the core, shutting down the lines during the event would avoid it. Often when the risk analysis is done, the solution is relatively simple.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: February 02, 2018, 10:29:45 pm
content: This is interesting: Princeton University'smicrogridkept the power on there even as the entire rest of New Jersey's power went out due to Hurricane Sandy.https://www.princeton.edu/news/2014/10/23/two-years-after-hurricane-sandy-recognition-princetons-microgrid-still-surges?section=featured

author: richard.cs
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: February 05, 2018, 01:08:31 pm
content: That kind of microgrid is fairly common, this is local to me:https://www.buildingbetterhealthcare.co.uk/news/article_page/Southampton_hospital_doubles_CHP_capacity/90259and whilst it's primary purpose is economic (it normally runs with a small net export to the grid whilst producing heat that's used in the hospital) it will happily run islanded if needed, presumably with a brief hiccup as it momentarily tries to hold up the rest of Southampton before the breakers open. I was a little surprised when I discovered it was piston engine rather than turbine.

author: David Hess
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: February 05, 2018, 03:47:31 pm
content: Quote from: richard.cs on February 05, 2018, 01:08:31 pmWhere size and weight are not a disadvantage, piston engines are competitive with turbines.