End of USD dominance??? - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: EEEnthusiast
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 03:44:58 am
content: What happens if the other major economies of the world stop trading in US dollars and switch to the local currencies instead. For e.g. China is settling most of its international trade with other countries, in CNY and Russia is using more and more Roubles. If they convince OPEC to switch to non USD currency, how will the US government maintain the value of USD? With Trump going full on the trade war, do we see a USD crash and associated EURO crash in the near term? Since USD is not backed by any real physical entity, its value is solely based on the US government influence and power. So is this a real possibility?

author: T3sl4co1l
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 03:47:38 am
content: Not sure what you expect to learn, asking about politics on a public forum.But, in the mean time before this thread gets closed...No active currencies are based on anything physical, they are all fiat.Tim

author: Ampera
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 07:43:17 am
content: I wouldn't say this is politics, this is more asking how economics work. While neither of those are EE, neither of those, in my opinion, are immediately worth a thread lock (at least not yet).What the OP must understand is that currencies do not get their values from governments (milk would go quite nicely with the bowl of asterisks that goes here). The actual way international currency exchange and barter works is on an order of magnitude more complicated than what could be put into an entire multi-page thread, I can still provide some basics as to how this stuff works, as best as I understand it, to send you in the right direction.Currencies get their worth from the body of people using them as a medium of exchange. This means if you can buy something with a currency, and you can sell something with a currency, it has worth. How much worth is based on how much you can buy with a currency, and how much currency you get via selling something.This gets a tad more complicated on an international scale, but in general countries can keep stores of other country's currencies. There's a lot of exchange and trade nonsense I cannot get into, but in general, currencies are valuable internationally when other countries can use it to buy stuff from the country who accepts it. On a basic example, this means that the US will buy stuff from the EU using Euros, and the EU will buy stuff from the US using Dollars. When a currency's value goes down, that generally (oh boy more exceptions here) means that less people are willing to accept that currency in exchange for goods.A good example of this is the North Korean Won. This currency, although potentially useful within North Korea (as I said, exceptions everywhere), is completely and totally worthless on a global scale, since nobody can use Won to buy anything from North Korea, and nobody else will accept Won in return for something valuable. When compared to a strong currency like the USD, there is quite a lot one can buy with dollars, thus if you are selling things, the money you get for doing so is actually usable for something.Economics is an at its core simple, but in reality horrifically complicated science, and there are a /lot/ of books on it. As for the USD and Euro crashing, that will depend on if people will stop trading with the people who accept or offer that currency. Regardless of what you may think, this isn't happening any time soon. Even mighty China isn't seeing as amazing growth anymore (and they know it, and they're not happy about it). This, as T3sl4co1l said, is where politics starts to become an issue, and where you should head to a forum of discussion more oriented to that sort of thing (try the EEVBlog IRC if you want something close by, we rarely moderate topic over there).

author: SiliconWizard
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 02:49:33 pm
content: Quote from: EEEnthusiast on October 27, 2019, 03:44:58 amThis is a much too complicated and much too political question to be asked here IMO.Just a quick note - yes it can happen, yes some countries are actively working on that, and yes it would probably lead to a very big problem. It may happen someday, but you probably don't want to know.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 03:19:46 pm
content: I don't think much will happen. Trade is so intertwined that one of the major currencies (Euro, USD or Yuan) crashing is equal to mutually assured destruction.

author: tunk
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 03:43:19 pm
content: I think it will be gradual transition where the dollar will loose importancecompared to the Yuan. For some commodities, I believe Chinese companiescontrols a large part of the market. When time comes, I would guess that theChinese goverment will tell those companies to only accept Yuan. Also rememberthat for the time being, the Yuan is not a floating currency, but pegged to the dollar.

author: EEEnthusiast
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 05:08:34 pm
content: I was trying to analyze economic problem just like an engineering problem, by doing a if then else analysis. Although the model is fairly complex, we may be able to perform some predictions based on current and past events. There is a human element in this, but humans also make their decisions based on their observations. So the human behavior and decisions can also be modeled. while this may sound like science fiction, it could very well be theoretically possible to predict with a high degree of accuracy.

author: magic
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 05:13:52 pm
content: Those who buy futures don't talk.Those who talk don't buy futures.-- Lao Tzu

author: Ampera
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 05:31:05 pm
content: Quote from: EEEnthusiast on October 27, 2019, 05:08:34 pmGood idea. It's been done. It's also been shown to be not that simple, as predicting economics makes predicting weather look simple and easy, and we still can't do that perfectly.

author: rstofer
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 05:58:08 pm
content: Between China and the US, they account for 75% of the world's economic activity. The US is ahead at 40.75% and China sits at 34.27%.A crash in either currency would probably be a catastrophe world-wide.The US is self-sufficient (or can be) in nearly every area. We are even a net exporter of oil. China is a net importer and that's why they're doing so much exploration in contested waters.If OPEC went full retard and cut off oil to the US, we wouldn't have the problems we had in '73. There would be some rebalancing of the export/import equation but, basically, we would be in pretty good shape. Considering the instability in the Middle East, OPEC is not likely to repeat that stunt.If China got cut off, they would be in a world of hurt. That's why they have so many military vessels along the trade route from the Middle East to ports in China. They are also trying to get a military foothold in the Middle East. And South America as well. They virtually own both ends of the Panama Canal.You really can't discuss trade and economics without dragging in geopolitics.

author: hermit
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 06:10:00 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on October 27, 2019, 05:58:08 pmChina isn't letting the dollar collapse anytime soon.China holds $1.17 trillion of U.S. government debt.https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/05/chinas-1-point-2-trillion-weapon-that-could-be-used-in-a-us-trade-war.html

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 07:20:01 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on October 27, 2019, 05:58:08 pmPure BS. Electronics and clothing for starters... there is no way you can produce these locally for sane prices.

author: hermit
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 07:24:55 pm
content: Quote from: nctnico on October 27, 2019, 07:20:01 pmI've heard 'experts' say that trying to bring some of this stuff back is lunacy at best and in some cases decades would be a more accurate timescale when it comes to manufacturing.Edit: And China's stock of the rare earths needed for things like cell phones? Good luck with being self sufficient in the US on that front.

author: soldar
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 07:40:57 pm
content: Quote from: tunk on October 27, 2019, 03:43:19 pm"Lose". It's been happening for many years now. It is not anything new. 70 years ago the USD was pretty much the only game world wide. Other currencies have been gaining for a long time now.Quote from: tunk on October 27, 2019, 03:43:19 pmIt seems you do not understand how the system works. A company that exports gets USD, EUR or whatever which they sell to the government bank and get CNY.Quote from: tunk on October 27, 2019, 03:43:19 pmThe CNY is pegged to a basket of currencies which are mainly USD, EUR, GBP, YEN, and a bunch of smaller ones and it is allowed a fluctuation within a 2% band.

author: soldar
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 07:47:27 pm
content: Quote from: hermit on October 27, 2019, 06:10:00 pmSane, rational actors want stability and predictability. Crazy, irrational actors think they can create chaos and come out ahead but they are almost always wrong.Investors prefer to invest in a country with great stability and predictability than in a country with apparently better conditions today but unstable and unpredictable.If there is one big country today who is for stability and predictability it is China. Many other countries which used to be paragons of sanity and stability have now chosen the path of shooting themselves in the foot just for the fun of it.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 08:07:45 pm
content: Quote from: hermit on October 27, 2019, 07:24:55 pmManufacturing coming back to the western world is plain nuts. Anyone claiming that and/or is promising jobs is a complete nutter. Price of products will rise 10 fold. Actually China seems to be the next victim of losing manufacturing to low wage countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, etc.

author: Kjelt
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 08:56:00 pm
content: Depends, if factories are robotized as is the plan it does not make much difference where on earth they are located as long as the logistics are met, so near a big harbor or airport would be the key.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 09:08:36 pm
content: While it would cause complete chaos if it happened rapidly, I'd be ok with a 10x increase in the price of goods. Up until the 70s household electronics and appliances were crazy expensive but it worked out ok. Stuff was built to last and there was an entire industry around repairing things. I'd be able to make a decent living doing it and a lot less stuff would go into landfills.

author: rstofer
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 09:24:39 pm
content: Quote from: nctnico on October 27, 2019, 07:20:01 pmYou should think about "needs" not "wants" Everybody wants the latest iPhone but they don't need it. If it's not available, they'll just live with what they have. Clothing - well we used to have a garment industry and while the price would be higher, perhaps automation could keep the prices in line. Or maybe we keep things a little longer.The problem with China is they fulfill "wants" more than "needs". We need food, shelter, power, gasoline, things to do, etc. In those areas, we are probably self-sufficient.If there was a block today on Chinese electronics, a bunch of people would whine and snivel but nobody would die (likely). I'm assuming that medical electronics are built here although I don't know that. Medical electronics may be the only electronics coming into the US that is a "need". And, given that we have a bunch of medical electronics, how much more do we really need? New inventions could be produced here as they are not usually price sensitive.People need to look back at WW II to see what the US manufacturing industries can do with very little lead time.A high percentage of the cheap clothing is already coming from Viet Nam. We get stuff from every country in the world (mostly) and, while China is a huge portion of our imports, they remind me of the adage about "Put your arm in a bucket of water. Now remove your arm and see how much of a hole you left." They need our market more than we need their products.I see the US-China standoff getting a lot worse before it gets any better. China's growth rate was never sustainable given the rates for other countries so we'll just have to see how much the tariffs bother them. So far, they aren't bothering the US. The DJIA is up more than 34% since Trump took office nearly 3 years ago. For those of us who are heavily invested but living on a fixed income, this is a whole lot more important than relations with China.China has, for the time being, an advantage in low wages. We sure aren't going to lower our standard of living to match. What we need to be is smarter. American industry can do that, given a bit of motivation.

author: rstofer
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 09:38:27 pm
content: Quote from: nctnico on October 27, 2019, 08:07:45 pmBy some estimates, Trump has added 314,000 manufacturing jobs. That pales into comparisons with Carter, Clinton and Obama but Trump didn't start in a recession. We already had decent employment numbers.Jobless rate lowest in 50 years, job openings highest in 18 years and, as I said above, DJIA up 34%, a really big deal.Oddly, this chart shows more than 5 million jobs created so a lot of them must not be in manufacturing. That a LOT of jobs in a country with only 350 million people.https://www.factcheck.org/2019/07/trumps-numbers-july-2019-update/Things are looking pretty good but I think I'll sell to cash before the next election. The economy under any of the socialists will tank should one happen to win.Nope! The tariffs aren't bothering us at all.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 09:39:52 pm
content: Quote from: EEEnthusiast on October 27, 2019, 03:44:58 amThen business suddenly has a lot more currency movements to worry about.QuoteFed puts more dollar bonds on the balance sheet.QuoteEuro maybe, USD no. It's still the greatest country in the world, not going to change any time soon.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 10:04:10 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on October 27, 2019, 09:38:27 pmThis right here is a textbook example of the political religion that is all too common in the US. One guy has all the solutions, the other guy caused all the problems, cognitive dissonance in the extreme, facts and data is irrelevant because it's an a belief exactly like the belief in a supernatural deity. Obama or Trump could cure cancer or take a dump on George Washington's grave and I don't think it would sway the true believers. I'm afraid I will never understand the devotion some have toward some politicians and the hatred they hold toward others, or how a person who is by most measures intelligent can honestly believe that the policies of someone who has been in office for just a few years can have such a dramatic impact on the fortunes of the nation. Economic health cycles, the drivers of which are a complex interaction of factors about as far from a clear black & white cause-effect relationship as it can get. Currently we were experiencing a boom, a bust is coming, not a matter of if but when, and it's not going to matter who is in office at the time beyond who will be the fall guy who gets the blame of it happening during his (or her) watch. I guess it does make it nice and simple though when you can just take credit for anything that goes well while blaming someone else for everything that goes poorly.My own dislike for the guy we have currently has very little to do with his policies and almost everything to do with the fact that the spokesman and face of arguably the most influential nation in the world is a crude, crass, blustering narcissist and loose cannon who regularly spouts off things that are not just stretches but outright fabrications (occasionally flat out contradicting something he himself said earlier) and franky it's embarrassing and makes us all look like a bunch of ignorant fools. Carter, Reagan, Clinton, Bush Sr, Bush Jr and Obama I agreed and disagreed with to varying degrees but every one of them had some class, was eloquent, honorable and genuine and I've respected them all. Call me crazy but I hold the elected officials in our highest positions to a higher standard than ordinary people and I expect them to behave like classy, educated gentlemen, not a petulant toddler.

author: Syntax Error
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 10:13:38 pm
content: No more US Dollars?Well then everyone will have to start usingBitcoinsand digital walletsyah like me!But aren't most crypto-currencies are used tolaunderUS Dollars?And all of my Tether Coins are linked to the the US Dollar!We can't win.And all Bitcoin Mining done in China!

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 10:19:22 pm
content: I suspect that crypto currencies are ultimately a fad. I have a fundamental moral issue with them due to the vast amount of energy that is wasted performing useless busy work to create them, as much electricity as used by some entire countries as of the last time I looked into it. Additionally the value tends to be extremely volatile which makes them useless as a currency, the vast majority of the transactions are speculative investment in the currency itself which is exactly not what currency is for. The whole point of a currency is to represent value in order to facilitate transactions, and for this to work the value needs to be relatively stable.

author: soldar
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 10:51:51 pm
content: Quote from: james_s on October 27, 2019, 10:04:10 pmI have said this before. Humans are not rational, dispassionate judges. We are pack, tribal animals. We will defend our side no matter what. Confront a person with incontrovertible evidence that their side is led by a crook and they will dig in their heels and come away with their allegiance reinforced and they will hate you for making them uncomfortable. It is true in America as in Spain and anywhere else.People do not have the time or inclination to inform themselves objectively and judge impartially. People like that are loners. Sectarian people are the ones who get ahead.It is the responsibility of the leaders to mitigate this and tell their followers that the others are not bad people and we must all work together but negative campaigning gets more votes and here we are. It seems the cancer of divisiveness is spreading all over western countries. For me it is a sad sight to see that we can only be united in our hate to others.Objective facts have no place in this. Lies are as good as facts. Boris Johnson has built his political career on blatant lies and yet he succeeds. His followers don't care. They just like him and his bigotry and his hate for the "others".Spain is a total mess and deeply divided and objective truths have no place in politics. Only prejudice and hate.Farmers are the staunchest supporters of the trade war and yet they are the segment being hit hardest. No one so blind as he who is blinded by fanaticism and hatred.QuoteQuoteQuoteQuote

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: October 27, 2019, 10:57:48 pm
content: The USD is still the defacto world currency and will remain so for the foreseeable future.Everyone loves to talk up fear of that not being the case, but the fact is thatsome currencyhas to be the defacto standard.If you think that there will be no defacto currency and all countries will just use their own for international trade then you are kidding yourself, onealwaysrises to the top for practical reasons.So having established that one currency must rule defacto, the question is which one?Chinese Yuan?Not going to happen. China is a big house of cards and will not a win a trade war with the US.EU? Not a chance with the UK leaving.There are other minor players, but they aren't going to happen.SDR's? Ah, the favorite of NWO conspiracy theorists everywhere. Not going to happen.So the USD it is.

author: MT
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 01:03:48 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on October 27, 2019, 10:57:48 pmNope, you haven't follow whats going on the planet, Russia China, Saudia, Iran, etc already buy and sell oil and gas in other currencies then dollar, not entirely public ally known but if you dig you will find it. The imperial dollar hegemony is already broken!If thats not enough as evidence EU are moving away from SWIFT creating INSTEX, China and Russia allready have a trade system in which Russians can exchange Rubel and Yuan into gold in Chinese banks, rumor goes other countries want to join.FASAB56 directly declare USA bankrupt and dollar a disaster FED have printed so much they dont even know howmuch. Catherine Austin Fits and Dr. Mark Skidmore tried to do a revision of the missing 23 Trillions it turned outto be an impossible mission as Pentagon/DOD did all they could to block it.https://missingmoney.solari.com/dod-and-hud-missing-money-supporting-documentation/https://constitution.solari.com/fasab-statement-56-understanding-new-government-financial-accounting-loopholes/http://files.fasab.gov/pdffiles/handbook_sffas_56.pdfQuoteNot really as all fiat's are floating ontop of a floating dollar tied to nutting as we left the gold standard decades ago.China and Russia have been hoarding gold for years and in Mars 2019 BIS on their big bankster meting decided thatgold is now legal tender for banks, not necessarily for you, guess what that means!In US more and more states also declared gold silver legal tender, I leave it to you decide what value the paper dollar going to be when the financial system crashes, else just study what hapend twice in Argentina once in Iceland and Grece and Cyprus.https://gsiexchange.com/states-gold-silver-become-legal-tender/Also Dutch central bank declared the other day that when/if the fractional banking system , negative rent, quantitative easing etc crashes gold will most likely base of restart. Just watch how the price of gold jumps in accordance of BIS and others make public statements.Now, whats wrong with gold and silver? The pricing for decades been manipulated.https://cointelegraph.com/news/dutch-central-bank-world-will-need-gold-if-entire-system-collapseshttps://bitcoinist.com/dutch-central-bank-hints-at-economic-restart-based-on-gold-standard/https://twitter.com/wmiddelkoop/status/1182929467469193217QuoteYou are kidding your self, parts of NEW WORLD ORDER already on its way to implement one planetary cryptocurrency in their control , CIA allready wrote apaper on cryptos in 1994, avialable in their library for down load.But before the construction of FED etc everyone traded in their currency where applicable else traded in gold and silver etc. Constitutional Dollars for example are explicit specified in metal weight and not printed FED toilet paper.Quote.Gold, but gold have been expropriated numerous times in the past yet been base for trade over 6000 years.I for one wants a decentralized crypto not based on computers that digging farts in a well of electronsrather linked to non speculative real values and all banks closed and banksters in jail.QuoteLean back, have a beer, some a cigar and watch dollar collapse while reading latest statementfrom boss of Bank of England, want more evidence of a NWO conspiratorial dude them him?In short what he says is a world order dictate on ALL BUSINESSES on the planet to become GREEN NEW DEAL'selse they (Banksters) will shut you down, dont take my word for it just read his speech. I make it easy, this is how he start his UN speech:A new, sustainable financial system is being built. It is funding the initiatives and innovations of the private sector, it has the potential to amplify the effectiveness of the climate policies of your governments and it could accelerate the transition to a low carbon economy.https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2019/remarks-given-during-the-un-secretary-generals-climate-actions-summit-2019-mark-carney.pdf?la=en&hash=C0D3A9F2C86647B04D88E7C0DC23264639D03BE2Still think GRETA and all the other liberal globalist commie climate carbon fear mongers a random coincidence?Unfortunately his royal highness censor this type of debate for some reason so we arent able to discuss what TECHNOCRATIC NEW WORLD ORDER really are. But its your forum, no democracy so there i go.

author: hermit
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 01:05:46 am
content: Exclusive: Saudi Arabia threatens to ditch dollar oil trades to stop 'NOPEC' - sourceshttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-usa-oil-exclusive-idUSKCN1RH008

author: all_repair
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 01:35:46 am
content: It is a foregone conclusion that "it cannot be USD" after Trump withdrew from the international agreement of Iran, and started to hold the world at ramson because of the USD and the swift system. China is not so interested to take over the dominating role, they just want to do what is enough to protect their own interest - that is not being stopped from trading with who US do not like. Europe is equally offended, and hoping to elevate Euro position and build their own replacement system. Only thing is US shall be using extreme measures to stop whatever replacement system that may come out as there is a lot of advantages that US is enjoying now - print as much dollar they like, fine whoever they like, etc

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 01:37:42 am
content: Choosing currency for transaction is not an emotional exercise but a financial one. In history, we have seen many example of folks being paid with wheel-barrels filled with cash only to have it being worth far less by the time they used it for bread in the bread line. 1920 Germany or recent Venezuela are examples.Between receiving the payment into your account and your spending that money, you want the value to hold or preferably increase. Some currency does it better than others. There are of course exceptions. If I am getting a loan from China to buy something from China, the transaction would likely be in RMB regardless of value stability. Another exception is borrowing, it is advantageous to get a loan with an inflating currency. You owe less as it inflates. But in general, given a choice, the most stable (or rising) currency would be the chosen one.May be in the near future the Euro would be the "default" but not now. Chinese RMB was looking good but recent inflation kicks it out of the running at least for the near future. Russian economy is just the size of Spain to size of Italy, hardly large enough to provide a cushion of expected fluctuations. Until that changes, I cannot see too many responsible financial guys who would choose anything but the greenback.

author: Nusa
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 01:38:58 am
content: Reality sets the exchange rates in most cases. Countries that establish exchange rates not based in reality quickly develop a black market that IS based in reality. In my travels, I've seen cases where the black market rate was 2 or 3 times better than the official exchange rate for dollars.

author: BravoV
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 01:43:40 am
content: Quote from: all_repair on October 28, 2019, 01:35:46 amThe people of the world are not stupid, and this model clearly is not sustainable.I guess our generation is about to see or experience how this flipped, and currently imo is happening but "slowly" by intention to reduce the damage globally if its too fast. And the irony is, it looks like the current administration actually is boosting this acceleration.

author: all_repair
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 02:04:05 am
content: Quote from: Rick Law on October 28, 2019, 01:37:42 amWhat is happening now is not moving against USD to be replaced with another currency. No one would want to trust another system that it can be dominated by a single country. The harm has been shown to outweigh the good. The danger of relying on USD was foreseen by the French president at that time. It is developing into probably into few major currencies. Different industries may have different major currencies depending on who are the major suppliers and major buyers of that specific goods.

author: VK3DRB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 02:45:33 am
content: https://www.usdebtclock.org/

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 02:49:10 am
content: Quote from: MT on October 28, 2019, 01:03:48 amI know exactly what that means as I follow that market closely, and it's not as ground breaking as you think it is unfortunately.QuoteThat's why I have gold.QuoteThe financial equivalent of Godwin's law has been reached, I'm out.

author: MT
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 03:11:34 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on October 28, 2019, 02:49:10 amI newer said anything about it being ground breaking, i merely reflected on your pre biased assumptions, besides many markets are rigged.QuoteSorta contradicts your claim dollar would be the world currency in foreseeable future.QuoteWell you brought up NWO first so Godwin law also known to be used for diversion, fallaciously miscasting and destructor of real debates, wonder why there are video after video in which such distinguished people like Bush senior, Kissinger (Kingmaker), Bush junior, David Rockefeller, Rothschilds and on and of people like that constantly yapping aboutNEW WORLD ORDER. surely they didint mean "Greta Godwin laws".

author: VK3DRB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 03:24:11 am
content: Quote from: MT on October 28, 2019, 01:03:48 amThe New World Order and its good mate the Illuminati are nothing but frog crap. They do not exist, except in the minds of conspiracy theorists.

author: MT
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 03:32:03 am
content: Quote from: hermit on October 27, 2019, 07:24:55 pmPrecisely and US have only "one" known deposit of rare earths on a very regular basis is closing and opening its operations, and thats also a reason EU parliament for years pushed for extensive search for new rare earth deposits.Quote from: VK3DRB on October 28, 2019, 03:24:11 amProf the opposite, besides the boss of Bank of England, Kissinger and Bush etc must be some serious conspiracy theorists according to you then.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 03:50:01 am
content: Quote from: VK3DRB on October 28, 2019, 02:45:33 amDebt in a currency you can print isn't all that relevant. Neither is debt to GDP. Trade imbalance is relevant and converting to a trade balance would hurt the US for a while, but only for a while ... they will still be the greatest country in the world afterwards.Current account imbalance is also relevant if you respect international treaties after they no longer serve your country (ie. if everyone exchanges their dollar bonds for US stock and real estate). The US would be unlikely to do so, just like both FDR and Nixon refused to let gold convertibility be the US's noose (to the wailing and gnashing of teeth of international bankers, who ultimately proved to have far less power than the US president). It's nice to have the level of autarky the US has ... and a political system which gets people in power with the willingness to use it for the US's advantage (ie. populists).

author: MT
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 04:00:08 am
content: Quote from: blueskull on October 27, 2019, 10:41:30 pmDemocracy obviously dont work, yet you spent years in US and didnt realize US already totalitarian fascistic by its own standards, the issue thou are that current totalitarian is a version Xi dont like , he wants Chinese type in US with him as planetary emperor for life , so lets see if Americans will ruin themselfs, i bet 100 dollar they probably will. I might have to increase the amount as dollar sinks in value over time!US if they sharpen up can easily revert the whole situation and restore manufacturing without any Asian childlabor 10cent hour salaries. Unfortunately at the moment they are completely entangled in political mafioso style infights !But heey look at the Brittons, vote'ing proofed dont count , ruled by peddo German holy untouchable Royals while entangled in BREEEEXIT! My recommendations to Britannia, kick out the Royals, make brexit, close border andrestart UK manufacturing and negotiate trade with other countries.UK have already done that with GRETA country(arms manufacturing).If US decides to reset FED dollar and debt jubilee, (look it up, have hapend before) and do a swift changeto CD's Constitutional Dollars then Xi and his totalitarian pals are going to sit with boat loads of worthless FED fiats!

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 04:57:06 am
content: Quote from: MT on October 28, 2019, 03:11:34 amAs a joke.I can tell the future, and my crystal ball says you'll be the one to get this thread locked.

author: rjp
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 05:15:31 am
content: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2017/sep/9.htmlFacts are sometimes fun, as per the australian reserve bank - the USD is down a bit from historical highs but is so much higher than all the others, any claims of its downfall are suspicoiusly lacking in evidence,

author: Ampera
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 05:15:43 am
content: All I've gotten from this thread is how wrong I was about thinking that this threat could be a simple discussion about world economics.I suppose, as I said, world economics is never simple, and sociopolitical debate on forums is never civil.

author: soldar
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 08:39:59 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on October 27, 2019, 10:57:48 pmA "world currency" is not a precisely defined thing. In international trade there are invoicing currency, financing currency, reserve currency, etc.Different currencies will be used in each case and hold a different fraction of global international trade.The trade sector is of importance. The EU can import general merchandise from China and be invoiced and pay in EUR but oil will more likely be priced and invoiced in USD because of the commodity and global nature of that market.Also, the direction of trade counts. EU exports are more likely to be invoiced in EU currency than imports to the EU.Taking it all together the USD might still be #1 but it is not #1 in all categories and it has steadily been losing ground to other currencies over the last few decades and the trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future (whatever that is).Thinking in terms of reserve currency, custom and inertia have a lot of weight but once the tide starts flowing the other way it has a multiplying effect.Around 1800 the Spanish Empire was not even a shade of what it had been centuries earlier and yet the Spanish Peso was in fact the world currency. It was the reserve currency of China who got it by trading with the Philippines, who got it by trading with Mexico.The USD is the world's #1 reserve currency today but it is not the only one and its influence is shrinking slowly. My guess is that it will continue to be #1 reserve currency for decades to come but will continue to slowly shrink. And it is possible that, just as no one saw the fall of the Soviet Union coming, one day for some political reason like a trade war or shooting war or something else unexpected, the balance tips the other way and in a very fast wave the USD loses its preeminence. But that is not in the foreseeable future.

author: Kjelt
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 08:41:08 am
content: Quote from: blueskull on October 27, 2019, 10:41:30 pmQuoteI am not an economist but what makes the CNY unsuitable IMO is the way the chinese government treats the CNY by inflating and deflating it at their convenience.A true global currency should be very stable. Even the EUR is not stable since that crazy italian Draghi started pumping thousands of billions in the EU

author: soldar
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 09:00:49 am
content: Quote from: Kjelt on October 28, 2019, 08:41:08 amVery obviously.Quote from: Kjelt on October 28, 2019, 08:41:08 amAll governments manipulate their currencies by adjusting interest rates, etc. The Chinese CNY is pegged to a basket of western currencies so I would say China manipulate their currency to keep it stable with respect to other currencies.As the CNY gains in liquidity and convertibility it will gain in becoming more important as a trade and as a reserve currency. Lack of freedom of trading and converting is what slows that.

author: BravoV
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 09:18:35 am
content: Quote from: soldar on October 28, 2019, 09:00:49 amThere, the keywords, "stable", cause currencies will become a very effective weapon by turning it into "un-stable" state. We all know how vulnerable it is.We have seen for the past few decades, on how it was used (some were artificially made) to create financial crisis at certain area, or region of the world, and some cases the crisis created ended up toppling the government that was not favorable to "certain" rich country/ies, or at least brought down the leader to their knees.Hence, for country that is so easy to print, print and print money whenever they like, and the currency is recognized & used widely, becomes powerful and can utilize it as weapon at anytime.Expecting China to let loose it's currency to global market valuation = suicidal, period.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 09:41:42 am
content: Quote from: soldar on October 28, 2019, 09:00:49 amThat's absolutely nothing like printing your own fiat to buy foreign currency and gold. Interest rates have far too many side effects to be an efficient tool of mercantilist currency manipulation.Quote from: BravoV on October 28, 2019, 09:18:35 amUntil 2008 the US didn't really print. Calling issuing debt, while having the private economy freely decide to buy it, printing makes the word fairly meaningless. With true printing there either is no corresponding debt or the debt is issued to the government itself, ie. to the central bank, which is obviously part of government despite some smoke and mirrors.

author: all_repair
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 10:52:00 am
content: The undercurrent is very strong. In a few years, less than 3, China shall have largest consumer market in the world. Andhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-19/which-20-countries-will-dominate-global-growth-in-2024?fbclid=IwAR0p3gmL_6vanvdqc9pa8PrRens9rpPkdvUL5xVrG2z5sLEePayUfRk6pq4

author: Kjelt
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 10:58:52 am
content: Quote from: soldar on October 28, 2019, 09:00:49 amThat is not true for most western countries.There is a seperation between the government and national banks.That is why Trump was so furious that the fed et all did not raise the interest rates, he has no saying or power in that matter.In China that is probably different, if the leader says jump the banks board will ask how high.QuoteDue to the trade wars with the US they responded in lowering the value of their currency. That is not what you write here.

author: all_repair
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 11:14:15 am
content: Actually the reverse was happening. China was at the state of cooling the economy and also slowly loosening the monetary control so RMB can grow to become another international currency of choice. When Trump started the trade war, and enlarged it, the true market pressure for RMB was worse and RMB should have dropped more than what it was happening. But the shock was no good for China and the world as a whole if RMB was to drop drastically. China had to use quite a bit of their US reserve to pop up the currency, but it can only for a short while. Trump would say otherwise, but IMF reading of the situation is what I am reporting.

author: soldar
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 03:41:27 pm
content: Quote from: BravoV on October 28, 2019, 09:18:35 amI haven't the slightest clue what you are on about but the declared intentions of the Chinese Government are to gradually increase convertibility until the CNY freely floats. You know, opening up like they have been doing with the rest of the economy.In any case I cannot see how it would be suicide. The CNY would probably appreciate somewhat and that would mean a decrease in exports but I can't see "suicide".Or maybe you can explain your economic theories.

author: Sal Ammoniac
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 04:44:22 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on October 27, 2019, 10:41:30 pmChina is rapidly going to find itself in a bad position when they price themselves out of the low-cost labor market and Western companies move their manufacturing to Brazil, Africa, or wherever the current dirt cheap labor market is.QuoteOh, you mean China has stolen or been handed enough Western tech on a silver platter to be self-sufficient? I'm sure that is the case and it's the fault of stupid Western companies, who, in their typical short-sighted push for short-term profit turned China into their biggest competitor.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 05:08:40 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on October 28, 2019, 04:57:08 pmLike that is working so well for North-KoreaAnd I don't get why people think being self-sufficient is such a good idea. If someone else is better at doing something compared to yourself and can do that job then you have time to do what you are good at. In the end everyone wins because efficience is the highest. That is how you grow an economy. If you close that off you are turning the clock back.

author: Sal Ammoniac
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 05:21:46 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on October 28, 2019, 04:57:08 pmWith the help of idealistic fools like Klaus Fuchs and the Rosenbergs, who thought the Soviet Union was a utopian worker's paradise rather than a totalitarian dictatorship that oppressed its people ruthlessly...

author: T3sl4co1l
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 05:47:08 pm
content: Hopefully the rising affluence of China will lead to a democratic revolution there, just as HK is experiencing today.Tim

author: Sal Ammoniac
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 05:50:27 pm
content: Quote from: T3sl4co1l on October 28, 2019, 05:47:08 pmI wouldn't count on it. I'd expect another Tiananmen Square massacre instead.

author: Sal Ammoniac
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 05:58:38 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on October 28, 2019, 05:36:38 pmCan I quote you on this? This is a real gem.

author: Sal Ammoniac
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 06:02:06 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on October 28, 2019, 05:55:51 pmYou've been listening to wayyyyyy too much CPC propaganda.

author: iMo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 06:44:54 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on October 28, 2019, 06:06:14 pm@blueskull: Could you somehow explain to people who do not understand world politics (like me) what is actually going on there in HK?If HK is such big pain in China's ass (as you described in detail above), why China is not going to ask Mr. Boris Johnson to take that big pain back?If China got finally rid of their HK pain it would be considered a great achievement for your government and many of your leaders will get certainly a medal.And the UK after the Brexit will certainly have more time to maintain law and order in HK thus helping China.I do not understand that, could you elaborate please?

author: Kjelt
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 07:21:58 pm
content: Quote from: imo on October 28, 2019, 06:44:54 pmyou think China is ever letting go?They think Taiwan an independent country recognised as such by the whole world except China who still thinks and claims it is part of China.Last month a French firm had to appologize at the highest level because they used a western global map

author: SiliconWizard
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 07:55:04 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on October 28, 2019, 07:40:06 pmFair enough. Actually, in many countries in the world, keeping the territorial integrity of the country is a whole part of their constitutions. Doing anything that could compromise territorial integrity would thus be deemed unconstitutional. There's nothing specific to China here. Let's see what happens if some US state wants to become an independent country.Here's the french constitution for instance:https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/sites/default/files/as/root/bank_mm/anglais/constiution_anglais_oct2009.pdfSee articles 5, 16 and 89.

author: Sal Ammoniac
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 08:35:09 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on October 28, 2019, 06:06:14 pmSometimes I wonder if you're joking or if you actually believe what you say...The Chinese economy is based on one thing, and one thing only: cheap labor. When that cheap labor goes away (and it will), the country is going to implode in a messy way with a few massacres thrown into the mix and the country will end up like Russia, with a super-rich oligarchy sharing power with organized crime (triads).

author: Sal Ammoniac
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 08:53:21 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on October 28, 2019, 08:50:02 pmAnd the Holocaust never happened either, right?

author: soldar
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 09:05:50 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on October 28, 2019, 06:06:14 pmNah. It's much easier than that. All China has to do to take effective control of HK is to declare that beginning tomorrow at noon all Chinese citizens are free to travel to HK and settle there if they like. No need for special permits any more. HK would be overwhelmed and would be begging for China's help in dealing with the situation.Heck, I remember when you had to go through controls to enter Shenzhen and then again to enter HK. The controls to Shenzhen have disappeared and I expect to see the border with HK disappear within my lifetime.

author: all_repair
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 10:15:47 pm
content: Quote from: nctnico on October 28, 2019, 05:08:40 pmThe world supposed to trade the way you said. But as we speak, Trump is trying to kill some China leading technological films by stopping the sale of US made parts or sw. US position is contradicting, not just this administration. Bar buying of China technology because of security risk, bar selling of US high tech goods because of security risk. Not only that, US also want other countries not to buy China high technology. If this can happen to China, it can happen to Germany, to Japan, to France, to any country leading companies when US think these companies standing in their way.

author: soldar
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 10:20:11 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on October 28, 2019, 09:14:43 pmWhat I mean is that if things get out of control in HK and they need to intervene then they would not need to send in the army, they could just open the gates to "the people" and that would be the end of any more HK nonsense. The mood of popular opinion in China is that HK people are spoiled brats and need to be stopped. Contrary to Americans who believe all the Chinese people want to follow HK footsteps.And, yes, America is agitating in HK and would be very willing to sacrifice all the people of HK just to interfere with China. Just ask the Kurds what they think. America agitates in China, Russia, Ukraine, etc. And, conversely, Russia agitates in Spain, America, etc. That's the game and everybody knows it but when we do it we are righteously spreading freedom and democracy and when they do it they are fomenting terrorism and all sorts of bad things.Yourbrainwashingview depends on where you sit.

author: all_repair
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 10:51:19 pm
content: The trade war, Huawei and HK thing are all related. That is to stop, or to slow China progress and growth, and to keep US and USD position in the world.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 11:06:43 pm
content: China hopes to convince the Taiwanese to embrace 1C2S, not solving the HK crisis with a relative soft hand works against that.In the end no matter the economic pressure if Taiwan doesn't want to be taken it can't be taken (both from a pyrrhic victory standpoint as they would have to destroy Taiwan to take it and because hypersonic cruise missiles could cause trillions of damage in China). So the more resistance they inspire, the further away Taiwanese take over is.

author: all_repair
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 11:42:42 pm
content: Quote from: T3sl4co1l on October 28, 2019, 05:47:08 pmWhy do people still think democracy is superior and is the cure? If you look at the countries then become democratic right after their colonial rules, vast majority become worse off. The exception are the 4 dragons in the east. None were democratic, including HK. HK was never and still has no democracy. South Korea and ROC were under military rule, and Singapore was an autocratic society under 1 party rule until now. If we engineer believe in data, the data clearly do not show that democracy works. The biggest proof before our eyes is between China and India. Democracy does not make a poor country to become rich. The question is can democracy make rich country becomes poorer, and do you need democracy to keep rich country stays rich, or is there any other hybrid system that can work better. I think what is the most fearful in many western world is not wanting to see there is an alternative system.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: October 28, 2019, 11:49:42 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on October 28, 2019, 05:55:51 pmYou got it locked as usual with your continued ranting on Chinese politics. You have been warned about this before.