No more free shipping from China to USA? - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: scuzzyTerminator
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 07:04:07 pm
content: Trump Opens New Front in His Battle With China: International ShippingThe New York Times; Oct. 17, 2018WASHINGTON -- President Trump plans to withdraw from a 144-year-old postal treaty that has allowed Chinese companies to ship small packages to the United States at a steeply discounted rate, undercutting American competitors and flooding the market with cheap consumer goods.Noooooooooooooooo!https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/17/us/politics/trump-china-shipping.html

author: TK
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 07:07:47 pm
content: I prefer to pay shipping on the items I purchase and not subsidize the millions and millions of packages that get shipped from China at US taxpayer's expense.

author: helius
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 07:28:53 pm
content: The Universal Postal Union rules are what control the termination fees paid by China Post to the USPS. UPU considers China to be a mid-level developing economy on the level of Mexico or Thailand; this policy seems out of date.

author: xaxaxa
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 07:43:10 pm
content: More reason to move R&D to China.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 07:43:43 pm
content: The ironic joke, is that the ability to buy many electronic components and modules at very low cost, such as $1.50. Means that younger, upcoming American, Electronics hobbyist can/could, with their limited $availability. Learn electronics, and potentially be future engineers.So in some respects, you are shooting yourselves in the foot.Also, Chinese custom PCBs, will probably be hit. Because the cheapest shipping options, may disappear or cost a lot more.Maybe this will not be so bad in practice. Just that the postage costs will be much higher, which is only fair, really. The China thing was exploiting a loophole, in practice. Even though it was legal.

author: ebastler
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 07:48:38 pm
content: I have not said that about many (any?) items on Trump's agenda yet, but this one makes sense to me.The bulk of the effort, and hence cost, of distributing these direct parcels from China occurs in the receiving country: Sorting, shipping across the country, and delivery to your doorstep. And I bet that many more individual, direct shipments go from China to Western countries than vice versa. Yet, the Western postal services receive minimal remuneration for their efforts from China, and hence have to subsidize Chinese shippers via the rates they charge from their local customers.Doesn't seem fair that, on top of allowing Chinese direct sellers to bybass technical compliance requirements and VAT payments, we also subsidize their shipping costs...

author: metrologist
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 08:03:58 pm
content: Time to stock up on Arduino clones?

author: SeanB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 08:14:57 pm
content: Nothing new, the Post Orofice here has been charging a handling fee on all incoming foreign parcels for the last year now, around $2 per small packet, and more for larger parcels, in an attempt to get somewhere close to being only a massive money hole. Who knows, they might actually make a dent in the mountain of mail waiting at sorting centres for processing, and get the waiting time down for processing to under 6 months.

author: rdl
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 08:32:33 pm
content: For nearly every cheap Chinese item I see on ebay, I can find someone in the US selling the same thing. Pay a buck or two extra for shipping, but get it in less than a week. Fair trade off in my opinion, been doing it for several years now. I do still buy from China on occasion though.

author: xaxaxa
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 09:10:06 pm
content: Really just depends how much they up the rates. If it's just few dollars for small to medium weight packages then it's no big deal, I'll just charge more for shipping to the US. If it balloons to $30 then my business will become nonviable and will just be yet another case of small business screwed over by big government. And given that my business is registered and pays taxes in the west, I think it's shooting yourself in the foot.

author: Bud
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 09:34:02 pm
content: I am looking forward to times when shipping from China will be banned. The world was doing very well before China time.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 09:35:53 pm
content: Quote from: Bud on October 17, 2018, 09:34:02 pmWithTrump, that could be what happens, as he ramps up the trade war.

author: rbm
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 10:08:33 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on October 17, 2018, 07:43:43 pmKind of the way Trump leads his life. Questionably legal practices that exploit other for his financial gain, sometime dipping his toe into clearly illegal activities. Very appropriate.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 10:09:51 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on October 17, 2018, 10:04:59 pmThey don't necessarily need to.Don't forget, that there are plenty of countries in the world. Many others of which, also have very low costs of living/wages.So, this could mean that countries like India etc etc. Increasingly produce and sell cheap goods, to the West.

author: xaxaxa
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 10:37:35 pm
content: Quote from: Bud on October 17, 2018, 09:34:02 pmNo, the world was not doing well. I remember the earlier days of the hobby when everything costed an arm and a leg, and hobbyist R&D work at the level we take for granted now was simply not possible. I would even go and say my entire career wouldn't have been possible without affordable tools and parts. I simply wouldn't have been able to develop my VNA if not for affordable PCB prototyping and access to parts. Since I was still a student I wouldn't have been able to afford $500 for pcb+parts.

author: maginnovision
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 11:06:11 pm
content: Quote from: xaxaxa on October 17, 2018, 09:10:06 pmIn that case it actually would end up that you were able to do your thing until the government stepped out of the equation. Right now you're benefitting from a government deal. You've got it all wrong.

author: xaxaxa
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: October 17, 2018, 11:15:42 pm
content: Quote from: maginnovision on October 17, 2018, 11:06:11 pmPrivate couriers in China are cheap and fast and reliable. It's only the western ones that rip you off for some reason.

author: all_repair
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 12:17:10 am
content: Quote from: xaxaxa on October 17, 2018, 11:15:42 pmTrue, not only that, private couriers charge competitively, yet are highly profitable and efficent.

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 12:32:52 am
content: Quote from: rdl on October 17, 2018, 08:32:33 pmWhat do you think will happen to their shipping costs?

author: TK
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 12:41:36 am
content: Quote from: xaxaxa on October 17, 2018, 10:37:35 pmIt is the mistake most novice hobby manufacturers make, wrong costing derives to wrong pricing and it makes it very difficult to scale the business without increasing the price significantly... it happened to saleae, they had to increase the price and new products are too expensive compared to the initial devices they produced, and I can see tons of products on tindie that are priced for direct manufacturing, selling and shipping and there is no room to grow the business through marketing, hiring, selling through additional channels and distributors...

author: TK
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 12:45:58 am
content: Quote from: Mr. Scram on October 18, 2018, 12:32:52 amSellers in China will have to charge separate for the shipping and buyers will bundle items to optimize shipping costs, like it used to be... and probably they will end up increasing sales volume

author: rdl
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 01:00:21 am
content: Maybe I'm wrong, but I didn't think the US sellers were be bringing their stock into the country by mail.Quote from: Mr. Scram on October 18, 2018, 12:32:52 am

author: xaxaxa
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 01:17:11 am
content: Quote from: TK on October 18, 2018, 12:41:36 amMore like their business overhead was too high; if you are an engineering company most of your profits should go into engineering, not sales/marketing/office work, and you should also really try to push your costs down as much as possible so that you can give your customers the lowest price. Have a minimal corporate footprint and keep operating expenses low. Fuck distributors too; they take half the money and add little value.If I, as a one-person company, can price my products competitively and still have plenty of resources for R&D, then the big names have no excuse. OTOH trying to "grow" the business, hiring, and marketing are great ways to piss away a lot of money and have nothing to show for it; we've all seen how the big kickstarters that raised millions flopped in the end and ran out of money without delivering anything.

author: Nusa
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 02:05:53 am
content: Quote from: rdl on October 18, 2018, 01:00:21 amWhat alternate methods did you have in mind?Nearly all the international shipping methods use the USPS for the last mile, except when package size, hazardous materials and/or delivery time demand something else.And naturally, if domestic suppliers shipping costs go up on foreign goods, then their prices have to go up as well. End result is their customers get it faster, but effectively pay for shipping twice.

author: all_repair
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 03:19:13 am
content: Quote from: all_repair on October 18, 2018, 03:17:31 am

author: rdl
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 04:04:36 am
content: I think you misunderstand. If you buy from a US seller you are usually going to pay for mail delivery, but they are not bringing their stock into the US by mail. At least I don't think so. If they're buying in quantity, container loads would make more sense.

author: station240
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 05:30:44 am
content: Quote from: blueskull on October 17, 2018, 08:40:54 pmThe subsidized chinese postage only applies to certain products and sellers, the average person on the street in china still has to pay the full normal postage costs.For international courier services, this is much the same as we pay in the west.In Australia the postal service has jacked up the prices for all parcels, not just international ones.So the result of chinese free postage, is I pay more to post something within Australia.This makes selling or even giving stuff away un-viable at times.

author: ebastler
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 06:00:30 am
content: Quote from: station240 on October 18, 2018, 05:30:44 amI don't think you got this right. The trick is that the "full postage costs", i.e. the cost to the Chinese mail service for sending something to Western countries,arevery low, because they are subsidized. The Chinese mail service only has to handle the transport to the destination country or region (via low-cost bulk shipments). The mail services in the destination countries handle the much more expensive distribution to the individual recipients. But the compensatory payments the Western mail services receive from China do not even cover their costs.Looking at all the small operators who sell direct via ebay etc. at very low (or free) shipping cost, apparently the attractive shipping rates are generally available to Chinese senders.QuoteThat may be the case, but I believe these courier services are not covered by the UPU treaty.

author: all_repair
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 08:32:13 am
content: Postage goes up in most places is NOT due to China parcel. It is due to the collapse of snail mails. The postman cost if almost fixed, if they carry less mails per trip then the cost per unit goes up. Any additional item is zero. If they charge $1 for local, and say 20cents for China. No, they don't loose 80cents each parcel. They make additional 20cents. Without the 20cents, the increase shall be more.

author: ebastler
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 10:09:04 am
content: Quote from: all_repair on October 18, 2018, 08:32:13 amThat's beside the point, I think. The alternative to buying an item which is mailed from China would not be to buy nothing, but to buy an item that gets mailed from elsewhere. And it is a subsidy if the Chinese seller pays 20 cents to get his stuff delivered to a US customer, whereas the competing US seller has to pay $1.00 for a local shipment.Yes, I have personally benefited from cheap shipping from China. But I would happily pay an extra few Euros here and there to help correct that imbalance.

author: Siwastaja
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 10:48:47 am
content: I'd be happy to pay for actual, real shipping cost unsubsidized for the cheap stuff. Due to the volumes, it wouldn't be massively expensive either, and it would be a simple, fair system.This is way better than building excessive barriers instead. That's something I don't want. Just remove all subsidizing and let the free market sort it out.I like to do business with the Chinese because often there is fairly innovative or at least functional tech business with at least manageable customer service, and it's not bloated beyond usable by either ridiculously high quality standards (on paper), or ridiculously greedy multi-level profit margin and multi-step "authorized distributor" bullshit system. (The problem isn't only about price; I can communicate my needs in days with the Chinese, but going in negotiations with Western tech companies may easily take months, and require participation of non-technical personnel, i.e., the "suit guys". I'm an engineer, I just want to buy components for my product, is it so hard to understand?)Let me give an example: when in need of a custom designed optical lens for LED beam shaping (i.e., I need both optical simulation to my parameters, then injection molds), there are approx three options for a startup:1) Outsource to China what they can do best,2) Don't do anything.3) Instead of actual design work, do a Design-for-Investors (DFI) mockup, hire marketing guys, and make collecting investor money in millions your goal, preventing you from working innovatively with your actual goal, so that you get your $1000000 to do the most trivial tasks. After you have your $1M, you have most likely lost your focus and are already a stale tech fraud startup and looking for another $1M or $2M to keep it going a bit longer.Western players either won't talk with you at all, or quote you $10000 for an optical simulation, talking utter bullshit about how much expertise it requires and how much it costs yada yada, totally not understanding your requirements about "this doesn't need to be perfect". In reality, it's still a half-an-hour job. But it's taking half an hour for ten managers and ten salesperson as well.Now, just by posting my needs on Alibaba, I had several Chinese do the optical simulation for free, and the results were just as expected. Then, you get to injection molding. The Western quote for a "optical quality" prototype mold is $30000 - if you can find someone who talks with you to begin with. From China, it's $800. And finally, the lenses I have here now are just as I expected, no issues whatsoever.In Western technology, I sometimes think we havetotallylost our reason. Doing anything can easily cost you $10000/hour. It's a free market, mostly dominated by dysfunctional industry giants who need to outsource every job, and theycanpay $10000/hr, so for a subcontractor, why take lower-paying jobs?Chinese engineering has brought us product segments that simply didn't exist; not competiting with "the West" at all. I can buy a Western $5000 servo motor with great specifications and all that jazz, and anyone who bought this product before "the China syndrome", still buys exactly the same product and won't even thing about getting to Alibaba. But now there is a new segment, I can buy a $50 servo motor with decent specifications. The purpose is different, the customers are different. This possibility also drives Western innovation.Sometimes it's about harsh competition and pushing prices down, but really, this isn't always the case. Often it's getting something that wouldn't exist otherwise.

author: kosine
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 11:28:33 am
content: If anyone wants some background as to how the international postal service evolved:https://psmag.com/economics/the-international-postal-system-is-profoundly-brokenand-nobody-is-paying-attentionHere's the crux of the matter:"At the 1906 Rome congress of the UPU, Italian representatives noted that they had delivered 325,000 pieces of printed matter—magazines and newsletters—while sending out none to other countries. This meant they were providing a great deal of postal service to fellow UPU members in exchange for ... nothing.Italy pleaded for a system of compensation, but relief wouldn’t arrive until after World War II, when a wave of liberated colonies entered the UPU. Like other developing nations, they received far more international mail than they sent. Because the UPU’s standards are set through a one-country, one-vote democratic Congress, this influx of net importers led in 1969 to successful implementation of a delivery compensation payment, dubbed terminal dues.But the terminal dues system quickly created another problem. The initial payment rate was uniform, while variations in currency value, wage costs, and level of service meant that actual postal delivery costs were not. Postal services with lower costs soon received more in terminal dues on inward international mail than it cost them to deliver it. From benefiting net exporters of mail, the UPU had begun to benefit the lowest-cost importers—including both many developing nations and low-cost industrialized nations like the U.S. and the United Kingdom.The history of the UPU since 1969 has largely been a war of position over who wins and who loses on terminal dues."

author: technix
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 11:41:17 am
content: As a Tindie seller in China this will hurt me quite a bit. For me since I have a largely original product portfolio there is no price point to compete against, but a raised handling & shipping will dissuade some potential buyers.p.s. Don't tell me that UPU still has to rely on pre-WWI rate setting mechanism with some half-hearted enhancements. Given modern technology it shouldn't be hard to actually pre-query and pre-route mail and generate a detailed quote in real time over Internet.

author: all_repair
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 12:27:44 pm
content: Quote from: ebastler on October 18, 2018, 10:09:04 amI am addressing people who blamed their local postage hike on China. The postal system are not loosing on China parcel, they are not making as much. Bulk of the local mails are local, has to be local. when snail mails and greeting cards are not feeding the system, the rate has to go up. The person that is affected is the one doing head on competition with China dropshippers, unlikely it is the local tech as they should not be in this line. It would be the local distributor/resellers. When the so called cheap rate is equalised, the benefits go yo the post office and local trader vs the losses of the buyers. If I am the buyers, I would prefer to donate my benefits to worthy causes and let other struggling innovators hold on their benefits.

author: TK
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 01:17:23 pm
content: Quote from: xaxaxa on October 18, 2018, 01:17:11 amRegarding the kickstarters, they fail because they did not have a compelling product, to start with, or they were too early in the development process and could not overcome volume manufacturing issues, not because of hiring talent and overhead staffing.

author: bitwelder
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 07:40:20 pm
content: US pulling out of UPU would mean that every single mail item going internationally to or from the US would need to have basically two stamps, one to pay the US postage and one for the UPU countries (i.e. rest of the world) ? Niiiice...

author: ebastler
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 08:17:24 pm
content: Quote from: technix on October 18, 2018, 11:41:17 amHmm, I am not quite sure what you are saying. Adjusting the cross-charge rates to a more balanced model would hurt you, but it would be technically easy to do?

author: ebastler
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 08:19:46 pm
content: Quote from: bitwelder on October 18, 2018, 07:40:20 pmI don't think this is about actually wanting to pull out of UPU. It's about threatening to pull out, and trying to use that threat as leverage to renegotiate the terms. The typical Trump approach which may or may not work...

author: TK
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 08:31:27 pm
content: I don't think UPU has anything to do with the real problem that is ePackets. It looks like it was something that was introduced around 2010 and it backfired. Here is an interesting article that explains how ePacket works:https://www.productpro.io/blog/epacket-china-wins-america-loses

author: Domagoj T
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 09:18:32 pm
content: Croatian post office tried charging 4,50 HRK (roughly $0,70) for incoming "small packets". People started complaining and it lasted for a few months. They don't charge it any more.

author: scuzzyTerminator
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: October 18, 2018, 10:53:24 pm
content: Some info:OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICEInbound China ePacket Costing Methodology Audit ReportFebruary 25, 2014https://www.uspsoig.gov/sites/default/files/document-library-files/2015/ms-ar-14-002.pdf

author: Kawar
author_rank: Newbie
timestamp: September 12, 2019, 03:28:49 pm
content: Quote from: TK on October 17, 2018, 07:07:47 pmI had to make an account for this post.honestly my friend you are clueless. Who cares it was better before and you know that. why would you pay for shipping or support tax on china when you know in the end they will pass the problems on to us.so for example you buy a phone on aliexpess or really anything you rather pay more to the government that goes in there pocket rather then money you can keep. then you got shipping fees on top of tax.so for all people who do not see how dumb and backwards that idea is this is a little examples. all fake numberslets take a 40 dollar smart watch right. before the trump bullshit comeing from a man who has no idea the worldwide damage he is doing to us anyway.40 dollar smart watch - free shipping with no tracking number - if you want tracking like 3 dollars - no tax = ether 40 dollars or = 43now lets do the new system what ever part of the country your in it will change depending on your tax law.40+tax+shipping even at 63-70 cents to have the slowest shipping.40+tax+3-4 dollars for faster shipping with a tracking number.you tell me what you would like more spending more for the goverment to make more money you wont ever see or for you to keep money in your pocket you can use for bills or to put food on your table?what would you do?

author: Kawar
author_rank: Newbie
timestamp: September 12, 2019, 03:29:42 pm
content: Quote from: xaxaxa on October 17, 2018, 07:43:10 pmthing is companys will just move to a new country they will never come back to the US they are gone.

author: CatalinaWOW
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 12, 2019, 04:21:49 pm
content: Quote from: Kawar on September 12, 2019, 03:28:49 pmYou are saying you like free lunches and want them to continue. Someone is paying the bills for delivering those packages. The question is: who? And the answer is: you or your neighbors and countrymen. You may not use snail mail (either sending or receiving bills, notices and the like) or send any domestic parcels or pay taxes so the lunch truly is free for you. More likely the cost is just hidden from you.As several prior posts point out the expense of delivering these packages comes in sorting and delivering them to all of the myriad locations. That cost is real and hard to adjust by large amounts. Gasoline, trucks and labor are real costs and can't be reduced at the wave of a wand. While there is room to argue about the efficiencies of the USPS (I worked there for a while once upon a time and agree that there is plenty of room) I don't see huge reductions in prices. If they were available UPS, Fedex or others would be bigger than Apple in profits and possibly have driven USPS totally out of the business.One thing that might be a good argument in the US (and possibly in other countries) is to eliminate the subsidized rates on "junk" mail. This class of mail dominates the volume, is usually handled below cost, and is generally undesired by the recipient. This is actually a bigger drain on the system IMO than the Chinese package shipping, but it is another of those sacred cows that is hard to attack. The advertising industry has well paid lobbyists.

author: tooki
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 13, 2019, 11:08:18 am
content: Quote from: Nusa on October 18, 2018, 02:05:53 amEven at the consumer level, I doubt that's true. There is a LOT of UPS/FedEx, etc going on.But at the bulk level, which is precisely what would be happening, it's done by ocean freight. And that is very, very, very cheap. Fill a whole shipping container and send it. That's how most non-perishable goods from Asia make it to USA and Europe, and why it's cost-effective to do import so much. I don't know the exact rates, but for example, back in 2008 when I was planning my move from USA to Switzerland, I did investigate how much it would cost to ship my car. I lived in Baltimore (where there is a seaport), and while door-to-door shipping would have cost thousands, port-to-port from Baltimore to Rotterdam would have been a whopping $600.A cursory Google search seems to indicate roughly $3000 all-in to ship a 40 foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles. You can fit a ton of Arduinos in that and spread the cost among thousands and thousands of units. That's precisely what retailers do.

author: tooki
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 13, 2019, 11:09:31 am
content: Quote from: rdl on October 17, 2018, 08:32:33 pmUnfortunately, not everyone enjoys such options. Here in Switzerland, the local vendors tend to charge 3x the Chinese price, and then shipping on top of it... :/