How long do you think semiconductor shortage will continue?  - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: Miyuki
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 13, 2021, 09:27:16 am
content: Just wonder what you think.As it is still bad and not just in advanced semiconductors, all the way down.A limited supply of optocouplers (fast ones), transistors are also out of stock, DC/DC bricks, nothing ... only thing reasonably stocked is passives

author: Berni
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 13, 2021, 11:39:38 am
content: It will most likely continue happening for at least 2 years.The current fabs are very busy, some months ago some fabs got there production knocked out by a fire and similar disasters. They are building new ones, but that is going to take years to complete due to all the clean rooms and advanced machines required for one. In the mean time clients are buying up existing stock at the drop of a hat in fear of the components going out of stock making the issue even worse. Scalpers are buying up any stock they find and reselling it at literally 10x prices (Like common cheap ARM MCUs selling for >100$ a piece) since this is very profitable right now.So it is going to take a while for them to catch up, stock to build up and for people to stop hoarding parts stock.

author: Zucca
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 13, 2021, 01:07:19 pm
content: and also if you work under immense pressure it is more easy to be nervous and make some mistake.The real questions is how long will it take to get back to the same quantityand quality.

author: TerraHertz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 15, 2021, 10:43:14 am
content: I'll be the devil's advocate here, and say it may NEVER recover. Read the book The Collapse of Complex Societies, by Tainter.What we are in looks a lot like the snowballing failures of interdependent systems discussed in that book. The same reason all societies in human history collapse. Except this time we have the most fragile, ridulously over complex, interdependent and easily broken economic/industrial system that ever existed. Major collapse processes NEVER halt and recover, they always proceed to the bottom. Time after time in history.Not even allowing for oncoming new sources of disruption.This Northern Hemisphere winter there are going to be severe food shortages worldwide, due to both major climate zone shifts (never mind the reason - warming or cooling) and also deliberate crop and food reserves destruction.http://www.voterig.com/farmers1.mp4The CCP is seriously proposing to 'integrate' Taiwan, by war if necessary. Taiwan won't be building many semiconductors while they dig out of the rubble. Something between 30% to 70% of the population of Western nations are injected with new mRNA tech that potentially may have severe health downsides over a few years (no one knows, because there were no safety trials.) Governments attempting to cut the 'nasty selfish unvaccinated' off from all economic interaction (and that won't be a peaceful process.) People in positions of power (even here in Australia) gloatingly talking about a 'Great Reset' and 'New World Order' (in which, quote "You will own nothing and you will be happy" - also not going to happen peacefully.) A senile, corrupt old pedophile in charge of the world's top superpower, and apparently colluding with the worlds nastiest superpower leaders (CCP) to sell out his own nation. Having just completely destroyed all possibility of trust in his nation's ability to honor their commitments. The Saudis having recently signed a defence pact with Russia, and so there goes the petrodollar.Here's a good video on the cascading supply chain disruptions:Weird disruptions everywhere. Packages (mine) sitting for a month in LA waiting for space on some plane flying to Australia (because there are almost none.) The Southern NSW pine plantations racing to fell and mill all the pine trees that burned in the early 2020 bushfires - and yet if you want to buy some pine lumber in Sydney, there is none to be had. Has been none for months I'm told.Then there's potental black swan events. Signs the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands might be about to do its big landslip trick.https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/earthquake-swarm-la-palma-if-blows-wipes-out-us-east-coast-via-tsunamiand simulation result:At least if we wanted to try thowing some virgins, or more appropriately politicians into a volcano to appease the wrathful Gods, there's a really impressive one going in Iceland at the moment. Search on youtube for iceland volcano. I recommend this entertainiment while waiting for your packages to arrive. Especially the volcano drone videos.

author: JPortici
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 15, 2021, 11:33:26 am
content: Quote from: TerraHertz on September 15, 2021, 10:43:14 amI usually enjoy your conspiracy theories, this time it's a bit too much for my taste though i agree with some points

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 15, 2021, 11:49:11 am
content: Quote from: TerraHertz on September 15, 2021, 10:43:14 amI have to agree with you on this one. We are in a death spiral of "not available".I cannot build temperature controllers for chemicals, because part are not here. They cannot use the controller to transport the chemicals, which is then used (for example) to paint your car. So you end up having delays of months for your car, because a single DC-DC controller is not in stock. Lead time: 52 weeks.The available manufacturing capacity is used to make new iPhones. They are getting made because they have better layers.I hope you enjoy your iPhones, and you can use it after society has collapsed, because industrial clients didn't get the parts that were needed to keep the infrastructure of everything working. Swipe and like.2008 was just a banking crisis, some numbers were confused. Imagine your life, when you cannot buy a new fridge when the old one dies, because the adhesive used for the door sealant is not available.I hope I'm wrong.

author: station240
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 15, 2021, 03:15:50 pm
content: Quote from: tszaboo on September 15, 2021, 11:49:11 amBecause people cannot buy new cars, they (or dealers) are buying the basket case cars that normally wouldn't be worth fixing.Then they buy up all the parts to fix said car, thusly depleting the supply of spare parts. Cars are being written off as they cannot buy a window control ECU, within the time the insurance will put up with, paint is not the only issues.It doesn't make a lot of sense in the big picture to release a new Iphone or Playstation.All it takes is one small company making a limited production specialized device/part to derail an entire supply chain because they cannot get a 99c voltage regulator.I know of one man company that sells lots of a particular module to a big company who use it in PLC. You wouldn't guess from looking at it, hate to think what would happen if they exhaust the last huge box he shipped them.Element14's website is reporting some STM chips on backorder, expected delivery date in 2027!So either their supplier really hate them, or these are worst case dates as they haven't been given a proper answer.Quote from: tszaboo on September 15, 2021, 11:49:11 amNot need to imagine, we already had that with compressors. Factory making castings or something for the compressors also make parts for other things.So they got hit with more demand from both sides, supply issues of their own, and increased shipping costs. Then they had to make all those dual compressor freezers for vaccines.Supply and demand chain is completely upside down.Demand has increased while supply has decreased, that rarely happens, plus it's happening across many areas.Toyota changed their Just In Time policy after the 2011 earthquake, to create stockpiles of components from factories that take a long time to restart after such a disruption. Semiconductors were top of the list. Plus it was always Almost Just In Time, not that anyone else paid attention to that minor difference, and that it meant having a stockpile of some sort.Things will only go back to normal with semiconductors when I can go onto Digikey/Mouser/RS/Element14 and just buy the parts for a prototype.It's just not practical for individuals/companies to have their own personal stash of everything theymightdecide to use in a design.Is that date in 2027? I hope not, and only STM are that screwed up.Is the semiconductor supply problem too tightly bonded to the virus outbreaks to solve one without solving the other. It appears so given what's happening in Malaysia at the moment.I'm going with end of 2025 to solve this calculated as:1 year to fix current disruptions, Taiwan's water shortages, Texas blackout, Malaysia chip testing/packaging staffing, that fire in a fab, FUBAR logistics in general.1 year to clear backordered products.1 year to restock suppliers and deal with pent up demand, and delayed production.

author: Miyuki
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 15, 2021, 05:21:59 pm
content: Quote from: station240 on September 15, 2021, 03:15:50 pmAnd just imagine what can happen when that crazy commies decide to attack Taiwan for real (they won't, they are not totally insane)

author: TerraHertz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 15, 2021, 05:31:55 pm
content: Here's another take on it. Copied from the net:QuoteQuote from: Miyuki on September 15, 2021, 05:21:59 pmHa ha, depending on the sanity and good judgement of Communists. In particular the CCP and Winnie. Have you been following developments in China recently?

author: thm_w
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 15, 2021, 10:03:52 pm
content: Quote from: TerraHertz on September 15, 2021, 10:43:14 amBehold, the conspiracy antivax prepper.QuoteIts not weird, they use the excess cargo space in passenger planes to ship your cheap cargo, since passenger flights are reduced, then you wait.If you use Fedex or UPS they use their own planes and it gets there within a day or two.Quote from: tszaboo on September 15, 2021, 11:49:11 amSo society will collapse because people can't buy new cars for a few years? Most people don't even need them in the first place.

author: Cyberdragon
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 15, 2021, 10:11:39 pm
content: It's not just semiconductors, it's passives too. Went to get an HV resistor and the whole company store was disabled due to lack of inventory, and this was from Nicrom.

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 15, 2021, 10:35:44 pm
content: Quote from: thm_w on September 15, 2021, 10:03:52 pmNo, it will collapse when some of the creature comforts will be taken away, then politicians will start finger pointing (doesn't matter to whom), and repeat the 20 century again, just with equipped with nukes.Did you know, that it was almost impossible to buy eggs when the outbreak started? There are apparently 5 companies making those egg carton boxes in Europe and 3 of them closed down when the lockup started.Probably we can name hundreds of chemical compounds, that are used everywhere, when even a small shortage would put verything upside down. Imagine not having enough PET. Or Diesel. And the issue is not that you cannot drive your diesel SUV and drink Cola. The issue is if the farmer who makes all the food that you eat, cannot buy the PET IBC to store the whatever chemical, or Diesel to drive the tractor.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 16, 2021, 12:29:34 am
content: Quote from: thm_w on September 15, 2021, 10:03:52 pmThe thing that has me scratching my head is why possible long term side effects of a vaccine overshadow the possible long term side effects of a virus. Covid-19 is too new to know what effects will be seen in survivors years or decades from now, but the short term side effects are certainly more severe than those of the available vaccines. All of the data I have seen so far very strongly suggests that the vaccines are safe and effective, especially compared to the virus. The virus has a high survival rate, but the vaccine has a survival rate orders of magnitude higher than that. We have no data that I'm aware of suggesting any kind of long term effects from mRNA vaccines however we have a significant amount of data indicating long term effects such as organ damage from Covid-19.I suspect it boils down to an emotionally driven belief rather than any real logic.On the topic of the shortage, I suspect we'll be feeling the ripple effects of it for several years, but I would expect things to mostly go back to normal within a few months of the Covid pandemic subsiding. Something that would quite possibly have happened already if not for the irrational vaccine hesitancy. My parents lived through the Polio epidemic and they remembered everyone lining up to get vaccinated shortly after the vaccine was developed. My mom doesn't recall meeting anyone who refused to get it.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 16, 2021, 12:34:31 am
content: Quote from: tszaboo on September 15, 2021, 10:35:44 pmI've bought eggs in a basket before from a local farmer, no cartons required.While not guaranteed to be available either, a Diesel tractor will run on cooking oil, kerosene, and various other substances. A gasoline tractor (or car) can be run on ethanol, methanol, propane, CNG and other fuels with minimal modification. I remember reading that during WWII it was not uncommon in some regions to run vehicles from a wood gassifier, that's certainly an option I could make use of here. I realize a majority of people are not nearly as resourceful or handy with their hands as I am though.

author: KE5FX
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 16, 2021, 05:14:24 am
content: Quote from: TerraHertz on September 15, 2021, 10:43:14 am... and not a sentence too soon, by the looks of it.

author: JPortici
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 16, 2021, 05:50:30 am
content: Quote from: james_s on September 16, 2021, 12:34:31 amNot current ones - in europe. Current vehichles are extremely picky about the fuel you put in them, plus you will obstruct all the stupid filters and scr systems in like zero time and make the vehichle uselss, because as per requirement from the law it won't even start if you remove the system and don't fool the ECU or reprogram it

author: Psi
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 16, 2021, 06:50:46 am
content: Yeah, I've already had to update the PCB designs for two of my products to use in-stock packages for the following components.- USB FTDI chip from 28pin to 24pin version- TVS array from SOIC to SO8 package- MCU from SOIC to QFN

author: Miyuki
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 16, 2021, 08:02:54 am
content: Quote from: james_s on September 16, 2021, 12:29:34 amTruth, I know people even young ones who have problems with breath after mild covidOn the other hand, some people have a big reaction to vaccination, for example, high fevers for 14 days and so. No long-term effects. But cannot afford not going to work for this long time. It is a big problem.Quote from: JPortici on September 16, 2021, 05:50:30 amExactly, we no longer have a right to repair. No one can modify the fuel system anymore. First, you have no tools for it. And second, it is illegal and hard lobbied so it won't be released even at the end of the world situation. Modern ECU will just refuse to run a modified engine.Quote from: Psi on September 16, 2021, 06:50:46 amYeah that shortage of package is annoying but makes sense to limit variety to little boost productionI'll have to start using QFN MCUs on prototypesQuote from: TerraHertz on September 15, 2021, 05:31:55 pmI know they are going faster and faster bask to hardcore communism because of their economy and population issues. But I think they will be just the new USSR (or big brother of DPRK) with closed borders (as they are now slowly closing) and trying to keep people silent. They are more of a barking dog with no teeth and barely standing.

author: bd139
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 16, 2021, 08:08:21 am
content: This is not going to stop in N years. This is the new status quo while we have just in time manufacturing everywhere. We pushed cost down at the cost of increasing risk. We happened to have a global event that tripped all the risks.The only outcome is that costs increase massively to provide redundancy via multi sourcing.Back when I worked in the defence sector we multi sourced most stuff and what we couldn’t was bought in massive quantities to act as stock for repairs and future supply. And the clients were charged up front for that.What killed some of this is the ridiculous product refresh cycles we see these days. We need to slow everything down.

author: Psi
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 16, 2021, 08:16:15 am
content: My guess is that it will take about 1.5 years before we see a noticeable improvement. But will probably take another 1.5 years after that before it's back to something that resembles normality for common parts. However that assumes covid19 ends and nothing else comes along like covid20 etc.I expect some chip variants or package versions probably wont come back at all.The manufacturers will all be focused on fulfilling chips that are in-demand, so some chips that are approaching last time buy or simply not sold in large volumes will likely vanish a lot sooner than they would have otherwise.I expect we will see consolidation between similar package options.Where the same chip came in a 24 pin and 28 pin version they will likely drop one.Drop in MCU variants with 2/4/8/16KB flash may see the 2KB and 8KB versions vanish because they know all their customers can simply upgrade to the next size version and any increase in cost is just part of the times.Of course that does depend on if the flash size variants are actually a different die or not. You lose most of the advantage in dropping some lines if they're all the same die and it's just a binning process based on flash manufacturing errors.There will also be long term strategizing in play.Thinking along the lines of "If we drop chip variants X and Y we can get our customers to upgrade to the more expensive chip variant now under the cover of a covid supply issues. Then they will be stuck on them after the dust settles."

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 16, 2021, 11:44:43 pm
content: Quote from: JPortici on September 16, 2021, 05:50:30 amThat is annoying, although I was surprised to discover some time back that I could make a small (lawnmower type) engine run quite well with the carburetor completely removed by just poking a hose from a propane tank into the intake. I'm pretty confident that if push came to shove I could convert a relatively modern car to run on some alternative fuel. One of my cars has both the original fuel and ignition systems removed and replaced with the open source Megasquirt, it's a bit of a hassle to get it dialed in but it will work on just about any non-hybrid ICE. Marine engines are also mostly devoid of any of the modern mandated automotive tech and many are marinised versions of production car engines so that is another option.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 16, 2021, 11:45:57 pm
content: Quote from: bd139 on September 16, 2021, 08:08:21 amWhat changed to this can be changed back. If it continues to be a catastrophe some smart company somewhere will figure this out and implement something that works.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 16, 2021, 11:50:29 pm
content: Quote from: Miyuki on September 16, 2021, 08:02:54 amSome people, yes, but they are exceptionally rare. I don't have the actual data in front of me but I would speculate that for every one person that has a serious reaction from the vaccine there are probably 1,000 or even 10,000 people that have a serious reaction to the Covid virus. There is a non-zero chance of having a severe reaction and dying from eating some ordinary item of food, but it is still safer to eat food than to not, because you will eventually die if you don't. Seatbelts occasionally kill somebody who would have survived had they not been wearing one, but no sane person is going to suggest that seatbelts don't work, we have massive amounts of data saying otherwise. Being out of work for 14 days would be a big problem for a lot of people, but I'm going to guess that if they are dead or even just end up in the hospital due to a virus infection they will miss a lot more work.

author: Kasper
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 29, 2021, 08:10:38 pm
content: Got an email today from a manufacturer saying some factories in Guangdong province are now working 2 days a week and some are stopping for one month immediately because of electricity limit the government just announced.I think China often has pollution problems in the fall as everyone turns their heaters on. I remember reading about some shutdowns because of it in previous years. Guessing this electricity limit might have something to do with that.

author: floobydust
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 29, 2021, 11:15:32 pm
content: Commodities pricing is just crazy. Almost all of them- coal, copper, aluminum, natural gas are 150-200% up.Coalis up 160%.I wonder when china will cower and buy more Australian coalBut factories in guangdong starving for power is a disaster heading into winter.There is some kind of big bubble inflating, with energy, commodities and shipping costs.

author: eti
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 30, 2021, 02:06:59 am
content: Until it ends I'd think 😬

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 30, 2021, 02:47:39 am
content: Quote from: floobydust on September 29, 2021, 11:15:32 pmMy friend was saying scrap prices were way down, even on copper despite prices of new materials being way up. That was around 6 months ago though so I don't know if it's still the case.

author: BBBbbb
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 30, 2021, 06:55:10 am
content: My company recently started preparing for another wave of price increases in 2022, after we got projections from our component suppliers (NXP, ST, Cypress,... basically all of them)

author: Psi
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 30, 2021, 11:52:45 am
content: It's also probably that manufacturers will try to keep the chip shortage going as long as they can, in a sort of unspoken price fixing scheme.No one is in a hurry to lower prices back to normal levels, increase volume yes, but not lower prices.

author: f4eru
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 30, 2021, 02:07:10 pm
content: Seems so.Look at this !"Order today, get them after 5 Years"And it seems to be an official delivery date from ST, I suppose.

author: KE5FX
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 30, 2021, 04:04:48 pm
content: My guess is they aren't trying to fix prices or even increase them deliberately, but to clear out a lot of old parts from their back catalogs. A lot of these parts aren't coming back at all IMHO. Not in 2027, not in 2037, not ever.You don't post 5-year lead times if you expect to sell any parts at any price, whether high or low. Frankly, they are probably trying to figure out how to sell their old fabs off. There will never be a better time for them to do that. "Never let a good crisis go to waste," as the politicians say.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 30, 2021, 08:21:13 pm
content: Quote from: Psi on September 30, 2021, 11:52:45 amI think it's likely for that to backfire. One company will decide to be the one that can deliver parts, and the companies that can't deliver will soon find their products designed out of things.

author: Red Squirrel
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 01, 2021, 01:34:35 am
content: Quote from: floobydust on September 29, 2021, 11:15:32 pmJust bought around 10m of 8/3 teck cable and it cost me like $200.I was going to hold off since I hate buying when I know the prices are higher than they should be, but I really wanted to get this cable run done before the snow hits. But yeah it's nuts. Running power from my shed's solar system to a separate sub panel in my house. Thankfully I already have a full roll of 14/2 romex and 14/2 BX so I'm good as far as inside wiring goes. I was hoping to add a couple 20a circuits to the server room but I can get by with 15a since even 12/2 wiring is crazy expensive right now.

author: f4eru
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 01, 2021, 06:32:29 am
content: Quote from: james_s on September 30, 2021, 08:21:13 pmShort term gains, baby. It's all about the short term.Doesn't matter if you blow up your business on the long run if you can do a buck today..

author: Miyuki
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: October 01, 2021, 06:59:28 am
content: Quote from: Red Squirrel on October 01, 2021, 01:34:35 amHere in Europe cable prices look stable at a supplier I useBut steel is double and wood in the sky

author: Psi
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: October 01, 2021, 10:08:36 am
content: Quote from: KE5FX on September 30, 2021, 04:04:48 pmYeah, i agree, but i think they will 'milk' the shortage for any extra money they can. Just like business usually do.Quote from: james_s on September 30, 2021, 08:21:13 pmYeah, the system will self correct. but it will take longer than it should because of this occurring to some extent