Coup d'état at ARM China? - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: Sal Ammoniac
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 30, 2021, 08:12:04 pm
content: I don't find the following news to be surprising at all...https://www.extremetech.com/computing/326447-arm-china-seizes-ip-relaunches-as-an-independent-company

author: Bassman59
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 30, 2021, 08:22:33 pm
content: Quote from: Sal Ammoniac on August 30, 2021, 08:12:04 pmThis does make the UK government's complaints about "ARM is important to British sovereignty!" (or whatever) in view of Nvidia's offer to buy ARM seem rather ... silly.

author: dmendesf
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: August 30, 2021, 11:11:23 pm
content: This is so funny...

author: SiliconWizard
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 30, 2021, 11:17:51 pm
content: Is it?

author: I wanted a rude username
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: August 30, 2021, 11:48:15 pm
content: I can appreciate the bemused humour reaction, because the story is incredible. The audacity of it, the unexpected twist involving the corporate seal, and what it says about rule of law. The analogy to a heist is fitting, and great heist stories often elicit that reaction ... though we're usually reading them years after the fact, and have more psychological distance.

author: rsjsouza
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 31, 2021, 01:05:02 am
content: Good. Keep doing these shenanigans and see IP investments from foreign countries vanish on the entire country. It's not the first time IP theft has happened with a tacit compliance from the government.

author: brucehoult
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 31, 2021, 01:07:37 am
content: Something not addressed in the story is whether the contractually agreed royalties are being paid.

author: dmendesf
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: August 31, 2021, 01:40:22 am
content: I think it's funny because it's only unexpected if you think USA can do whatever it wants and other countries must just comply. Do you really think that USA can uniterally decide that China has no right to access Taiwan factories and that's it? Nothing else will come back? Come on...

author: all_repair
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: August 31, 2021, 01:40:43 am
content: You have to believe either Wu is so stupid, or can't be so stupid.Arm UK cannot remove Wu, only Arm China can. WHat is the IP arrangement between ARM and ARM China matters.https://www.pcgamer.com/a-rogue-arm-ceo-and-a-centuries-old-law-are-causing-a-headache-for-nvidias-big-deal/

author: helius
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 31, 2021, 02:35:39 am
content: Quote from: rsjsouza on August 31, 2021, 01:05:02 amWhich government?As you can read in Chalmers Johnson's bookBlowback, the US trade offices in the State and Commerce Departments encouraged the theft/appropriation/whatever you want to call it of US companies' technology to Japan during the 1960s. It's almost as if geopolitics trumps law or something... The Chinese have learned the same playbook and seem to be more consistently using it these days.

author: Kerlin
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: August 31, 2021, 07:49:51 am
content: Always wondered why the West gave their technology away for free, maybe they have finally learnt how it is.I have a Taiwanese brother in law that swears black and blue that Taiwan invented the PC.Most of the engineers that I worked with when I was there think technology used in IC semis was developed by them.

author: magic
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 31, 2021, 08:04:07 am
content: Not for free. Americans received three decades woth of low cost, disposable consumer products in exchange

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 31, 2021, 08:25:11 am
content: Quote from: Kerlin on August 31, 2021, 07:49:51 amYou had a deal with a Chinese company, and it didn't honor the deal, stole your IP and screwed you over?

author: iMo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 31, 2021, 08:49:02 am
content: Quote from: magic on August 31, 2021, 08:04:07 amAll received three decades of low cost products, imho.. I wonder one could somehow estimate whether the three decades of such "gain" compensate for "lost" of (potentially) all IP involved in creating such a gain..

author: magic
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 31, 2021, 08:54:33 am
content: Quote from: tszaboo on August 31, 2021, 08:25:11 amAnd what do you expect if the general expectation in the West regarding China more or less boils down to "you will be fabricating our products forever in exchange for us telling you how to make them"? (Somebody has to be blueskull now that blueskull is gone)Information economy my ass. I wouldn't be laughing at the West if they didn't call me a statist/fascist/idiot when I tried to warn them 10~20 years agoBesides, China has been a communist country for decades. Those who know (i.e. not Americans) should know what it entails. The people are used to cheating and bullshitting because it's the way everything works in such system.We are living through the most epic fail in modern history. If you leave aside the long term consequences, which are hard to predict anyway, the events happening right now are in themselves objectively simply hilarious.

author: daqq
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 31, 2021, 09:22:05 am
content: There's about a hundred Pikachus putting on their surprised face right now.

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 31, 2021, 11:33:12 am
content: Quote from: magic on August 31, 2021, 08:54:33 amI wouldn't be surprised if Winnie the Pooh himself decided to do this, or else everyone at that company (and their families) goes to gulag.In any case, I give you an example:If you want ATEX, IECEX, NEC and other explosion protection certification, I can do all that here at one company. If I want CNEX, the Chinese one, I have to get every technical document translated to Chinese, and send it to a Chinese Notified Body. This includes Schematic, BOM, Gerbers. My suggestion to management was: "You would be a fool to do that".

author: JPortici
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 31, 2021, 11:34:28 am
content: This is so freaking hilarious.

author: all_repair
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: August 31, 2021, 11:44:05 am
content: RTFM and RTFA before writing rubbish.

author: SiliconWizard
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 31, 2021, 06:01:36 pm
content: Quote from: imo on August 31, 2021, 08:49:02 amWhereas this could be interesting in itself, this is pretty much impossible to estimate IMHO. Much too complex with too many implications and what-if's. Evaluating this would imply somehow trying to figure out if this was all "worth it".The point is that modern "western" economy has not been tailored for long-term. It's all just a succession of short-term decisions sprinkled with optimistic "it will be OK" all along, and the arrogance of thinking that we can always resort to the military if things go sour.Unfortunately (or fortunately, depends on your perspective), the idea of a military war against China (for instance) these days to solve our economic problems is just not uhh... realistic. I'm sure it wouldn't be pretty.

author: bd139
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: August 31, 2021, 07:17:55 pm
content: LMAO that's a complete shit show.I expect this to end up in export bans, import tariffs and all sorts.

author: Kerlin
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: September 01, 2021, 05:05:00 am
content: Well many wanted to buy cheaper and cheaper now watch your money come back at you, from the sky.Future generations will curse you.

author: SL4P
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 01, 2021, 08:25:14 am
content: COMMUNISMchases wealth intoCAPITALISM… which evolves toSOCIALISMto sustain the poor and disenfranchised… The leadership of SOCIALISM concentrates power back into COMMUNISM.Rinse and repeat every 3-4 generations.

author: Kerlin
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: September 01, 2021, 08:36:30 am
content: Mmmmm....I have to closely examine that further to try to understand what it means???

author: SiliconWizard
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 01, 2021, 04:56:01 pm
content: Quote from: Kerlin on September 01, 2021, 05:05:00 amWell, I don't think that's how it works. Consumers didn't drive the market towards cheaper prices. Companies, and in particular large companies, pushed for lower production costs. The fact it benefited consumers (well, at least partially - price-wise, sure, but quality-wise, that's another story) is, IMHO, a side-effect. Given the cost difference between producing in western countries and eastern ones, companies could get higher margins while offering lower end prices for their customers, further increasing demand.Of course, once customers are used to low prices, they won't go back to higher prices. Unless there is no choice anymore.So, just saying that the idea that commerce is only, or at least mainly, driven by demand is an utopia that just doesn't meet reality. That's what marketing is all about. And these days, what you, as a customer, can buy at a given price is completely out of your control. Ultimately, shareholders get to decide.So, while I agree that customers are also responsible for the situation - not buying the cheap stuff would indeed stop the process, - they didn't create it. Just a thought.

author: gamalot
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 01, 2021, 05:20:52 pm
content: This is just a farce that started in June last year ......

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 01, 2021, 11:45:05 pm
content: Just let NVIDIA buy ARM and let the US government solve this.If the US government gets serious, even Pooh's ego crumbles (see the Iran sanctions).

author: brucehoult
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 02, 2021, 12:58:28 am
content: Quote from: SiliconWizard on September 01, 2021, 04:56:01 pmThere is nothing intrinsically wrong with "cheap stuff". Often it's perfectly adequate for the job.There are certain areas in which I buy among the best quality that is available: Toyota and Subaru cars, BMW and Honda motorcycles, E61 coffee machine, Apple phones and tablets. In most other things, whatever is the cheapest on special does the job just fine.

author: sleemanj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 02, 2021, 01:33:48 am
content: Seems like the original article was a bit shoot first ask questions later, see the new article...https://www.extremetech.com/computing/326617-arm-refutes-accusations-of-ip-theft-by-its-arm-china-subsidiaryThe salient points.Quote from: article

author: all_repair
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 02, 2021, 01:45:55 am
content: Quote from: sleemanj on September 02, 2021, 01:33:48 amDoes not matter. The few regulars do not want to read, or choose not to understand. And with bluesky gone, they can enjoy their "free speech" (cheat shots) with no correction. It has been between well US educated Wu and ARM. Can happen anywhere in many other forms if the firing is not done right. Then we can also have cases like Nissan ex-CEO who is still on the run.

author: helius
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 02, 2021, 04:04:48 am
content: Quote from: all_repair on September 02, 2021, 01:45:55 amThe persecution of Ghosn is atextbook exampleof a coup d'etat engineered by corrupt oligarchs and a supine legal system that is wholly owned and operated by them. The same conditions pertain to China, and sadly, many other jurisdictions that conduct political prosecutions.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 02, 2021, 06:46:02 am
content: Quote from: all_repair on September 02, 2021, 01:45:55 amIt can happen in many other forms which in no way resemble the scale of government aided theft happening here.Lets say the ex-Nissan CEO was screwed by the board and a corrupt prosecutor as he alledges (there's also a warrant for his arrest out in France now for seperate charges, so take everything he says with a pinch of salt). At the end of the day the board always has the power to fire him and this would be about the maximum scale collusion could get away with in a civilized country.Stealing the entire company with collusion from government, only China (and only because it's Japanese owned, if this was an US company it wouldn't be happening).

author: Doctorandus_P
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2021, 01:53:39 pm
content: I think the real problem here is that a company like ARM can be "worth" USD32.000.000.000And for what?A copyrighted instruction set and a bunch of VHDL / Verilog?--------------------------------At least it's not as bad as the multi billion world of advertisements.The only goal of advertisements is to tempt you to give money to companies for products you do not want or even need.And apparently it works, cor else these misleading practices would have ceased long ago.In the mean time it has become very difficult to find decent products for a fair price, as a lot of them are pushed out of the market and into obscurity by the ridiculous advertisement budgets of big companies.And don't fool yourself by thinking you can have a good deal when you fall into their greedy trap. Sites like facebook extract about USD50 yearly out of each of their customers, and they get that money from selling your data and advertisements. And the people they get that money from extract that money from you if you bite into their advertisement traps.

author: helius
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2021, 02:27:21 pm
content: Advertisements "work" in the sense that they make somebody a lot of money. But if the admen can manipulate consumers into buying certain products, don't you think they can manipulate companies' managers into buying advertising? And of course they do that too. It's turtles all the way down.Check out the bookInfluenceby Robert Cialdini for insights into why advertising works and what you can do about it.

author: Bassman59
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2021, 04:58:10 pm
content: Quote from: Doctorandus_P on September 20, 2021, 01:53:39 pmIf you're going to askthatquestion, why stop there?Why are Uber and Lyft worth anything? For that matter, why is Airbnb worth anything? These companies have no product to sell. If anything, they are market makers, which is a nice term for "rent seekers."

author: SiliconWizard
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2021, 05:45:01 pm
content: Quote from: Bassman59 on September 20, 2021, 04:58:10 pmIndeed. Actually, I can't believe how mind-boggling Doctorandus_P 's comment is.Sure one can always debate the amounts of valuations to no end, but claiming that a company like ARM would have "little value" is, huh.... yeah?ARM is like... in billions of devices in the world? Has contributed in a major way to the embedded and mobile markets, is almost in everyone's life these days one way or another. You may not like the situation (and it may change over time with RISC-V), but this is just so. How much would you actually value that? In terms of "value", one has to consider how much overall revenue ARM has generated for all companies using their IPs. It's probably a whole lot more than 32 billions.Uber is a good point. AFAIK, its currently worth more than twice what ARM is. Is that justified? Do you think it's really worth more than ARM?Funnily enough, Uber probably uses tens of thousands of devices around the world to function, that embed chips with ARM IPs.

author: iMo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2021, 05:53:34 pm
content: FYI - Wave Computing acquired MIPS for $65mil (2018).

author: SiliconWizard
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2021, 06:23:16 pm
content: Quote from: imo on September 20, 2021, 05:53:34 pmUnfortunately for MIPS, they were sort of dying. Completely different story. Again the value, for this kind of companies, is not in the company's assets, but in the value they have brought, and are likely to bring in the future. MIPS potential for bringing future value was pretty meager.

author: brucehoult
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2021, 11:52:07 pm
content: Quote from: SiliconWizard on September 20, 2021, 05:45:01 pmWhat they did in the past is not relevant. In theory, the price of a company is the present value of their total future profits.According to one source I found, ARM had profit of $1.27 billion in 2019 and a loss of $400 million in 2020. Apparently that 2019 figure includes a one-time payment of $1.67 billion for essentially selling their rights in China. So everything else they did may have made a loss in 2019 too. The licensing fees are around $2 billion a year, so the profit depends on their spending.Even if you assume they will make $1 billion profit every year, that's a lot of years to add up to $32 billion value.This article is over a year old now, but the points it makes still stand:https://www.nextplatform.com/2020/07/31/the-dollars-and-sense-of-nvidia-paying-a-fortune-for-arm/

author: westfw
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2021, 05:47:16 am
content: QuoteApparently people are happy to "invest" in things with even less "tangible" worth (I'm thinking cyber-currencies, but art would do, too.)

author: magic
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2021, 06:30:06 am
content: The people investing in crypto are anarchists and speculators, both for good reasons

author: VooDust
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2021, 02:04:32 pm
content: Quote from: SiliconWizard on September 01, 2021, 04:56:01 pmIt seems that a good portion of my monthly routine is buying stuff that breaks around the household. Be it toys, tools, clothing, you name it. Everything is made with the intent that consumers can replace it to follow trends. It's so pervasive that I we nowexpectsomething to break if it hits the floor. This does not have to be the case.At my parent's house I can identify tools, cutlery and other stuff that is still good. Hell, sometimes my children are fed from bowls that I was fed from 30 years ago and they're still OK! (I mean the bowls, not the children lol).Pisses me off so much. That (and other stuff) is why the planet is going to waste.

author: brucehoult
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2021, 07:44:35 pm
content: Good quality things are still available if you want them. They just cost a lot more -- like those old things your parents have cost them way back then.A vacuum cleaner used to be a major investment. You didn't have a choice. Now you can buy one for about the same price as filling your car. Or you can buy a good quality one for a lot more.

author: VooDust
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2021, 11:34:16 am
content: Quote from: brucehoult on September 21, 2021, 07:44:35 pmI disagree. It's become incredibly hard to identify quality manufacturers. Many near-century old brands have been infested by MBA types and try to milk the good name of the brand with cheaper products.As a consumer it's almost impossible to look at a piece of material and determine its quality grade. You cannot simply take high price as an indicator for good manufacturing. Some product models are created and marketed towards people who simply enjoy novelty and paying a premium.

author: brucehoult
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2021, 12:08:29 pm
content: Quote from: VooDust on September 22, 2021, 11:34:16 amI dunno. I reckon one of these would still be as good as or better than what my mother was using 50 years ago:https://www.vacuumspot.com.au/nilfisk-gm80b-compact-industrial-vacuum-cleaner-gm80bIn general, if you look for the terms "commercial" or "industrial" you're probably going to get functionality and longevity over gimmicks and looks.

author: SiliconWizard
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2021, 05:14:22 pm
content: Quote from: brucehoult on September 20, 2021, 11:52:07 pmThis is how you would value a small to mid-size company, or one in a niche market. This definitely isn't how big high tech companies are valued these days.The value of a company is simply how much any other company is willing to spend on it. And this depends on a number of factors, including how competitive said market is (which implies: how many other companies would be interested in buying), the company's reputation (thus, yes, past and history definitely matter, they have a direct influence on the customer base), and how much value the company directly or indirectly brings to the overall economy. If a company makes $1 billion of revenue a year, but generates "only" $2 billion of revenue for all other companies using their products, it's definitely not the same as if it generates $100 billion of indirect revenue a year.Again $32 billion may look like a lot, but think of it this way: try and estimate how much revenue all products in the world embedding ARM-based devices generate. This is mind-boggingly high. Now think of the situation if ARM cores suddenly became unavailable. Is there *currently* a viable alternative that would replace them altogether without any negative impact? There isn't. That is what will ultimately define the value. IMHO.Now whether the acquisition is itself a viable financial operation at this price, this is another question. It's a complex one too: of course, just breaking it even will take a very long time. But OTOH, not buying (and letting a competitor buy) could have a negative impact on market share on a much shorter term... Oh, and also, not that I'm very fond of the situation, but a significant part of all this acquisition money, in such contexts, is kind of "virtual" anyway (well, at least until the company goes bankrupt...)

author: Bassman59
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2021, 08:07:31 pm
content: Quote from: brucehoult on September 22, 2021, 12:08:29 pmIn general, when you see the term "pro" (or "professional") you can bet that it's consumer-grade junk.