Counterfeit components - an estimated global value - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: DrGeoff
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 05, 2012, 01:29:47 am
content: Recent news article states that the counterfeit component industry is worth 169 billion USD per year now, and growing. Looks almost as lucrative as the illegal drug market.http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4370446/IHS--Counterfeit-parts-represent--169B-annual-risk-?cid=NL_EETimesDailyInterestingly the analogue component sector is still the significant one being counterfeited at the moment. And this figure is only IC's, not the caps and other dodgy components out there.

author: Rufus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 05, 2012, 01:53:44 am
content: Quote from: DrGeoff on April 05, 2012, 01:29:47 amThat isn't what it states at all, in fact the article says almost nothing and seems to be written with the intention of deceiving anyone who doesn't read it carefully.

author: amspire
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 05, 2012, 02:05:55 am
content: Quote from: Rufus on April 05, 2012, 01:53:44 amRufus, Thanks for pointing that out. I had to go back and re-read the article and you are totally correct.Apparently the whole report is an extrapolation of just over 1000 counterfeit part notifications. All the numbers past that point are pure guess work.I have absolutely no idea how 1363 counterfeit notifications was extrapolated into a US$169 billion a year value. You can do amazing things with the right Excel spreadsheet.If my calculations are correct, that is177 million dollars costto the industry for each tube of fake $0.05 LM324 ICs. Wow!Sounds a bit like the push for more bad international intellectual property rights laws using suspect statistics, just like the appalling SOPA act.Richard.

author: Rufus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 05, 2012, 03:33:48 am
content: Quote from: amspire on April 05, 2012, 02:05:55 amIt is saying if you divide components into classes the 5 classes with most reported counterfeits have a global market value of $169 billion. They then claim this represents a very scary $169 billion annual risk.It is as ridiculous as claiming there is a risk of killing 260 million Americans because a lightning strike could hit any one of them.

author: Vredstein
author_rank: Contributor
timestamp: April 05, 2012, 03:52:53 am
content: Quote from: Rufus on April 05, 2012, 01:53:44 amThe article is really just a quick re-write of an original press release from the market research firm. A more valuable article would have put in effort to verify the numbers independently.http://www.isuppli.com/Semiconductor-Value-Chain/News/Pages/Top-5-Most-Counterfeited-Parts-Represent-a-$169-Billion-Potential-Challenge-for-Global-Semiconductor-Market.aspx

author: amspire
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 05, 2012, 04:51:44 am
content: Quote from: Rufus on April 05, 2012, 03:33:48 amSo if you say that not only are fake ICs a threat to the IC economy, it is also a threat to the global economy, then these 1363 notifications indicates there is a 50,000 billion dollar threat caused solely by these fake IC's.I like that logic.

author: Bored@Work
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 05, 2012, 05:48:44 am
content: Their bullshit is worth preserving for future generationsQuote from: Dylan McGrath link=http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4370446/IHS--Counterfeit-parts-represent--169B-annual-risk-?cid=NL_EETimesDailyLike finding some rotten apples in some supermarkets and than claiming the whole business of selling apples is at risk everywhere.I would say a combination of FUD from IHS, and maybe that Mr. McGrath wasn't the best and brightest at math and logic in school so he had to become a journalist. If you want to learn a little bit more about Mr. McGrath, here is a press release about him from 2008http://www2.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/08-18-2008/0004869016&EDATE=QuoteI believe the firt two (fast and aggressive) but have a problem with the third (thoughtful). I can believe the fourth (engaging). maybe Mr McGrath is even a little bit too close to his sources.

author: JonnyBoats
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: April 05, 2012, 11:21:25 am
content: This reminds me of the MasterCard TV commercials they run in the US:Cost of producing a counterfeit IC - $0.10Getting the counterfeit ICs into the supply chain - $50,000Having your counterfeit ICs in your enemy's missiles when war breaks out - priceless!

author: sacherjj
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 05, 2012, 02:05:49 pm
content: This kind of reminds me of this TED talk:http://blog.ted.com/2012/03/20/the-numbers-behind-the-copyright-math/