Tech Stocks Crash - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 04, 2025, 09:08:41 pm
content: Slightly off topic, but the biggest stock market correction since 2020 happened yesterday, and a ton of tech companies were hit hard.Microchip crashed down 16% at one point.That's on top of huge recent backtracks in the last few months.I guess this thread could be a catch all for any tech related discussion.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 04, 2025, 09:10:21 pm
content: ... and any political points.Can't separate them anymore

author: TimFox
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 04, 2025, 09:18:30 pm
content: Unfortunately, Mark Twain did not write the famous phrase "History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes."However, an introduction to "The Gilded Age" has a fancier phrase: "History never repeats itself, but the Kaleidoscopic combinations of the pictured present often seem to be constructed out of the broken fragments of antique legends."Compare and contrast with the McKinley Tariff of 1890 and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930, comparable in size to this week's tariff changes, now that we have had sufficient time to evaluate the effects of both.

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 04, 2025, 10:09:11 pm
content: With what has been happening with America these past months I am genuinely worried for the end of "Pax Americana" - the loss of faith in the US as a military ally, and as an economic ally, and as a guarantor of international free trade has profound consequences for the future stability of the world. And all of this tariff nonsense will not actually help bring jobs back home. America is not obliged in any way to act as world police, but it has been of great benefit to world peace that they have been, up until No. 47, willing to do so.What will China be thinking? Taiwan must look very interesting right now -- the US heavily tariffing China gives them one less reason to not invade. Unlike Russia, it will be impracticable for Europe to untangle itself from China in the near term, so the safest thing to do is make the invasion of Taiwan economically unpalatable for all sides. I wonder if some of the quants have started pricing the loss of high-tech semiconductors into AI and wider tech stocks as a result of these tariffs.

author: UnijunctionTransistor
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 04, 2025, 10:55:43 pm
content: But hey! Not everything is doom and gloom.We now have the Gulf of America!A lame attempt at a joke I know, I know. But I am battling the anxiety of watching my 45+ years of savings flushed down the toilet.

author: SiliconWizard
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 04, 2025, 10:57:29 pm
content: Just wait a bit more till it shows signs of bottom and invest.

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 04, 2025, 11:00:59 pm
content: Quote from: SiliconWizard on April 04, 2025, 10:57:29 pmTime in the market beats timing the market. I'm still making monthly buy ins for the S&P500 and other index trackers. I have no more knowledge than anyone else, but I -really- hope someone grabs No.47's attention for more than 5 minutes and shows him how bad this whole thing is, and he changes tact. But, there's no guarantee of that. He might genuinely believe this is a good idea.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 04, 2025, 11:02:26 pm
content: Quote from: UnijunctionTransistor on April 04, 2025, 10:55:43 pmOne interesting observation is that when people used to be uncertain about the future, money tended to flow into the safe haven of the dollar.Not this time.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 04, 2025, 11:06:08 pm
content: Quote from: SiliconWizard on April 04, 2025, 10:57:29 pmYup. Put money in your investment portfolio when the stocks have dropped and ride the uplift.

author: JPortici
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 05, 2025, 07:05:04 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 04, 2025, 09:08:41 pmbwahahahahahalong overdue for many of the affected stocks, first and foremost TSLAQuote from: SiliconWizard on April 04, 2025, 10:57:29 pmexactly

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 05, 2025, 08:12:17 am
content: Quote from: UnijunctionTransistor on April 04, 2025, 10:55:43 pmIt's just back down to levels from 12 months ago

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 05, 2025, 08:14:35 am
content: Quote from: JPortici on April 05, 2025, 07:05:04 amYes. Anyone who couldn't see a tech correction coming at the very least for the crazy high P/E's was a fool.

author: voltsandjolts
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 05, 2025, 09:01:29 am
content: Quote from: JPortici on April 05, 2025, 07:05:04 amCan someone please post here when they hit bottom, I'm always terrible at judging that. TIA

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 05, 2025, 09:09:20 am
content: Quote from: voltsandjolts on April 05, 2025, 09:01:29 amRule of thumb: when I sell my shares

author: Gyro
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 05, 2025, 10:17:30 am
content: Quote from: voltsandjolts on April 05, 2025, 09:01:29 amI'd say that's going to be a moving target, depending on what other 'measures' are put in place.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 05, 2025, 12:43:28 pm
content: Quote from: tom66 on April 04, 2025, 10:09:11 pmThe Pax which facilitated the unprecedented build up of an ideologically hostile dictatorship, with western funded industrial build up and western provided know-how. The pax which allowed Russia to build out crucial intermediate range ballistic missile capability while destroying its own.QuoteThe build up of China and the bleeding of industrial capacity in the west had profound consequences for the future stability of the world. These are the consequences ... it was unsustainable and was going to break down sooner or later, Trump made it sooner. The road of globalisation taken by Pax Americana was self defeating, it didn't need to be, but it was.QuoteIt's not about jobs, it's about industrial capability and all the innovation that drives in the facilitatory businesses associated. The jobs are a sideshow. A nation can not be strong without economic sovereignty, that doesn't mean autarky ... but it certainly doesn't mean being almost completely dependent on a largely autark dictatorship either. That's where China was trying to head. Autarky for China, dependence for the west. Then they have total autonomy to do whatever they want, to Taiwan too.

author: Zero999
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 05, 2025, 01:07:04 pm
content: Quote from: tom66 on April 04, 2025, 10:09:11 pmThe other parts of your post make sense but you must be joking about the US being a great benefit to world peace.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 01:42:20 am
content: Quote from: voltsandjolts on April 05, 2025, 09:01:29 amJim Cramer just called another 1987 style Black Monday is incoming.That's as guaranteed a bottom as you are going to get

author: Analog Kid
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 01:55:37 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 06, 2025, 01:42:20 amYep.I've already adjusted my 401K to brace for further bad news from the stock market.The shit's apparently about to hit the fan ...

author: themadhippy
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 02:16:43 am
content: Quote

author: UnijunctionTransistor
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 03:25:50 am
content: Quote from: tggzzz on April 05, 2025, 09:09:20 amYou definitely are using the same financial strategy that I do. Buy high, sell low.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 03:44:10 am
content: Quote from: Analog Kid on April 06, 2025, 01:55:37 amI don't think you quite understand what an Inverse Cramer is...

author: bdunham7
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 03:50:50 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 06, 2025, 01:42:20 amIf that's what Jim Cramer says, I'll expect the opposite. The bottom is not coming until the economy actually gets hammered and unemployment skyrockets. And even then the resulting interest rate drops will prop up the stock market for a while.

author: bdunham7
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 03:54:58 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 06, 2025, 03:44:10 amI actually had one share of that ETF. They had to close it down at a small loss because it turns out Jim Cramer is only wrong 2/3 of the time and the expenses of inversing his calls via options were too much to actually make any gains.

author: Dundarave
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 04:57:49 am
content: The biggest loss to the investment world (and thus economies everywhere) is the reckless abandonment of the until-now fabulous long-term stability afforded by the various doctrines promulgated by successive U.S. governments over the last several decades following the last depression.While not necessarily economic-related, these doctrines (such as the Monroe doctrine, projection of soft power, support for democracies, etc.), with their Gibraltar-like solidity, provided the world with the underpinnings of a common understanding that national investors could literally “bet on” for generations.This universal bedrock of stability has now literally been blown up, and as a result, every investment dollar is now going to be very, very carefully watched, eked out, hedged, saved, coddled, and generally be hoarded until a new basis for stability emerges in the world.Regaining trust of any kind takes time. Years-type time. I fear that we’re going to see a real slowdown for the next several years until the really big world-class investors start loosening the purse strings again.I think we’re all in for a rough 5 years, minimum.

author: andy3055
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 06:54:49 am
content: All I know is that my retirement savings went down by $7k in the last 24 hours! Now with the RMD, I will lose a lot that I have no way of recovering.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 08:24:17 am
content: Quote from: andy3055 on April 06, 2025, 06:54:49 amWhat's RMD?How far are you off retirement? Unless you were going to get the money now, not a problem, just wait.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 08:26:43 am
content: Quote from: bdunham7 on April 06, 2025, 03:50:50 amThat's the point, Cramer says a bigegr crash is coming, therefore under the Inverse Cramer rule that neans the bottom is already in and it's only going to go back up from here.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 09:15:42 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 06, 2025, 08:26:43 amI don't know why you are referring to a Jim Cramer in particular. Looking at his wackypedia page makes me think he is good at self promotion but no better than other pundits. For example, he appears to have a Fox Noose pundit, and there appear to be two investment funds LJIM and SJIM which are explicitly betting with and against his recommendations.Historically there have been two general principles that seem to have some validity:sell in May and go away, come back in September. Don't know if that still applies with robotradingbuy on rumour, sell on news. The stock market is, after all, largely speculativeThere is a lot of news at the moment, and none of the rumours are good.

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 09:29:39 am
content: Historically, the only method for a retail trader has been to stay in and buy at regular intervals. If you model that over the past 20 years, it beats any normal hedge fund, so why on earth would a retail trader think that they can beat those guys who have way more knowledge, experience and information that we could ever hope to have?

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 09:49:00 am
content: Quote from: tom66 on April 06, 2025, 09:29:39 amHistorically 75% of fund managers underperform the market. 20 years is too short.Currently the appropriate period to consider is post WW2. That's when all the current/recent political/financial concepts and institutions were set up in response to what happened post WW1.For 9 years I've been feeling that there are too many current parallels with the 1920s. We are now at 1929. Didn't the 1930s work out well

author: MT
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 12:29:36 pm
content: "War is a racket" a short book by US Marine General Smedley Butler 1932.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Is_a_Racket

author: TimFox
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 02:33:59 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 06, 2025, 08:26:43 amBefore I retired, I did trade actively. My assumption on short-term fluctuations was that the market would always over-react (like an underdamped harmonic oscillator) initially, and then return to a temporary equilibrium that reflected the actual economic situation. That allowed some buying-low, selling-high, with limit trades entered before start of trading in the morning.Since retirement, I decided to pull back to an actively-managed conservative portfolio (paying a reasonable fee to people who do this for a living).

author: TimFox
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 02:49:34 pm
content: Quote from: tggzzz on April 06, 2025, 09:49:00 amA book I recommend about 1929: J K Galbraith,The Great Crash, 1929orig Houghton Mifflin 1954.As he wrote to the introduction of later editions, every time the publisher tried to take it out of print, something happened, and a new edition became popular.The most recent reprint was Penguin, 2019.An important statement in that book is that the stock market crash of 1929 was asymptom, not the directcause, of the Great Depression.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 03:30:02 pm
content: Quote from: TimFox on April 06, 2025, 02:49:34 pmI ought to read that classic. I must admit that I have tended to regard that book as being similar to the MIT Rad Lab publications: technically correct, but modern advances may have made some techniques obsolete. But I note what Galbraith wroteBasically I am loathe to regard any one person as being "authoritative", especially in a field as dismal as economics.

author: TimFox
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 04:16:47 pm
content: Galbraith's book is more historical than economic.One limit to historical research about that period is the bad state of economic statistics before the Depression.There are no government statistics about GDP, for example: Galbraith had to work from statistics about carloading and tax receipts."The Bureau of Labor StatisticsIs entirely governed by mystics,Who mean to sayThat your annual payHas no actual characteristics."

author: temperance
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 04:43:13 pm
content: Quote

author: andy3055
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 04:54:38 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 06, 2025, 08:24:17 amRequired Minimum Distribution (RMD). When you reach a certain age based on the date of birth, you have to start taking money that was saved in retirement account that was put aside when working, like 401k etc. I am already 73 and now I am in that category. The monthly draw is calculated based on what one had at the end of the previous year. So, if the value goes down, you end up losing more than necessary as the current year goes on. Unless one has a lot of savings, you could end up a pauper living just on the Social Security payment which is mostly under 2k after Medicare and health insurance payments for majority of the everage person.

author: TimFox
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 05:28:15 pm
content: Current US law requires that RMDs (required minimum distributions) from tax-deferred accounts must start in the year in which the subject turns 73.Following that law, my brokerage tells me the total amount of my account subject to that distribution as of Dec 31 last year, and the IRS requirement (based on actuarial computations for my age) for the fraction that must be distributed (and therefore taxed) during the current tax year.If I possessed a crystal ball, I could have taken the distribution at the peak of the market in January (then or later, who knows?) and re-invested it in taxable accounts at the bottom of the market (now or later, who knows?), to optimize the result.IRAs and 401(k)s are two parts of American tax law that allow an employed worker to defer (not avoid) income taxation until later in life.Usually, if one withdraws funds from such an account before age 59-1/2, there is a tax penalty on the proceeds (with some defined exceptions) as a "premature distribution".

author: UnijunctionTransistor
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 06:49:39 pm
content: Economists are the people who become rich by explaining why you are poor.

author: TimFox
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 06:53:52 pm
content: During my career, I found that (in general) other people knew their own job better than I did, and that I knew my job better than they did.

author: bdunham7
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 07:04:19 pm
content: Quote from: TimFox on April 06, 2025, 06:53:52 pmThat may be true, but for the idea to be useful you have to be sure that you understand what the other persons job really is. Case in point would be something like the current trend of private equity investors buying up local HVAC service companies and changing the job from servicing and repairing HVAC systems to pretending to service HVAC systems but almost always recommending profitable system replacements for which they receive a substantial commission. You can extract the general principle I'm trying to convey and apply it other professions. The other persons job may be to screw you and they may indeed be better than you at it.

author: TimFox
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 07:09:38 pm
content: Quote from: bdunham7 on April 06, 2025, 07:04:19 pmIf the other person doesn't work for me or with me, then your comment may well be true.I was thinking about other persons' expertise compared with mine.

author: watchmaker
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 08:28:55 pm
content: Quote from: TimFox on April 06, 2025, 02:33:59 pmI tried a broker managed account in the first decade of 2000; a Merril Lynch guy whose son had an economic spot on PBS. It was not worth it at all. We thought he was putting our money in with other managed accounts, but that was not the case. He had one strategy for favored accounts, and another for people like us. I pulled everything out at top minus 15% in 2008 and back in at bottom plus 15% later.Since then we have simply been in ETFs, S&P, NASDAQ, GLD, Russel, etc. Easy to pull out when things go sideways (which we did this last February). Next move will likely be non-USA ETF. Still pondering. But plenty of time.All the talking heads like Cramer are salesmen, as are all brokers. They make their money on the trades. How can anyone think they can pick stocks when the market is run via computer algorithms?Has anyone here heard of the financial engineering major called OrFi (Organizational Finance) at Princeton? Seriously, it is in the engineering school. We attended a panel by these children when our daughter matriculated there for a liberal arts education combined with a degree in Civil Engineering. What these OrFi students had to say was VERY frightening.I studied the books on fundamental stock analysis. But with all the options and various endruns, fundamentals seem to no longer matter. Even dabbled in reading "the charts". May have worked once upon a time, but I think these things are now irrelevant.But, do not tell me that selling 15% from the top and buying at 15% from the bottom is not timing the market. It can be done if you pay attention to the world in real time. People were calling the real estate fraud that led to the 2008 bust for two years; but talking heads claimed to know better. Whatever happened to the "mouth that roared" about how we were headed to financial ruin (Santelli) for two years around 2011??The sky never did fall. Although I reckon he is now claiming he predicted the current crisis 13 years ago!I stopped watching financial news at least 10 years ago. It is all sales, protecting players until they can make their moves and entertainment. Like Fox or MSNBC. Just another mechanism to sell advertising.Buy the baskets and sleep at night. And do not try to be greedy. 6% ain't bad.And if I was working today, I would definitely continue taking full advantage of my employer's match. Right now your 401k contributions are "timing" the market. The sun WILL rise.

author: TimFox
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 08:59:43 pm
content: Taking full advantage of an employer's match is an excellent idea: that's money you won't get otherwise.I don't know if the US system of IRAs and 401(k)s is common for other industrial nations.

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 09:47:03 pm
content: Quote from: TimFox on April 06, 2025, 08:59:43 pmCommon.In the UK you can save up to £60,000 per year into a pension. Employer matches are rare, though. Contributions are free of all tax; you pay income tax (not 'national insurance', which is like a different form of income tax... it's complicated) when you draw down. You can also withdraw up to 25% tax free as a lump sum, which is intended to help pay off a mortgage or manage the transition into retirement a little more comfortably. The idea is you'll draw down at 20% income tax rates (there's an allowance before you pay this too), but contribute when your tax rate is much higher.It's actually a fairly generous system all around, though not unique to the UK. In Australia, the contributions are taxed on the way in (at 15%), but withdrawals are tax free. Mathematically, this system is equivalent to taxing on withdrawal.

author: TimFox
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 09:52:00 pm
content: Quote from: tom66 on April 06, 2025, 09:47:03 pmThe UK system sounds very similar to the US system (except for employer matches).Is there a similar requirement for required withdrawals?

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 10:09:43 pm
content: Quote from: TimFox on April 06, 2025, 06:53:52 pmTrue. For example I don't know how to be an electrician, and how to do things properly myself, but I know enough to tell when they did a completely unacceptable hack of a job. And this applies to many things.

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 10:16:27 pm
content: Quote from: TimFox on April 06, 2025, 09:52:00 pmAs far as I'm aware no. You could leave every penny you want in your pension and pass it down in your will. You'd probably be a fool to do so, but you can do it.It's worth noting that the state will provide access to a care home for lower income individuals, but if they think you're trying to hide income or assets in order to qualify when you wouldn't be otherwise eligible, they can go after that hidden asset, like a pension you don't want to touch. A common 'trick' is selling for a nominal amount, or giving away the family home, to your children to hide that wealth. All well and good, but you generally have to move out if that happens, otherwise it's seen as reservation of benefits.

author: bdunham7
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 10:20:40 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 06, 2025, 08:26:43 amWell this might be the 1/3 of the time where he isn't completely wrong. Dow futures are down this afternoon 1500 and the SP500 E-Mini is down 240 (almost 5%) which puts the SP500 into a bear market and the Dow almost there.

author: TimFox
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 10:21:11 pm
content: In the US, the remainder of ones retirement account (upon death) can be willed into the heir’s IRA, with specific regulations about taxation and deferrence. The intent of the RMD is that the account be completely withdrawn (with taxation) before death.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 10:28:57 pm
content: Quote from: tom66 on April 06, 2025, 09:47:03 pmMy understanding is that the new-ish "workplace pensions" have an employee contribution of 5% and an employer contribution of 3%.https://www.gov.uk/workplace-pensions/what-you-your-employer-and-the-government-payEssentially you don't pay income tax when putting money into a pension, but you do when withdrawing money. This means it is "tax efficient" since you get interest on the money youdidn'tpay as tax.

author: TimFox
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 06, 2025, 10:34:29 pm
content: In the normal IRA and 401(k) plans, the interest, dividends, and capital gains on the investments are part of the taxable withdrawal. A different plan (so-called Roth plans) has different rules.Should the investments suffer a loss, the remainder is taxed on withdrawal.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 12:38:50 am
content: Quote from: tggzzz on April 06, 2025, 09:15:42 amBecause it's a hilarious finance industry meme known as the Inverse Cramer rule. If he says anything is about the go up or down, that is the trigger for it to do the opposite.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 12:40:16 am
content: Quote from: bdunham7 on April 06, 2025, 10:20:40 pmAustralian All Ords is down 6% this morning, and is usually a leading indicator for other market around the world given our time zone.

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 08:25:50 am
content: Quote from: tggzzz on April 06, 2025, 10:28:57 pmMathematically, it doesn't matter whether you tax contributions or withdrawals, since multiplication is commutative it is equally 'tax efficient'; you effectively earn the same interest either way. The Australian system of taxing contributions but not taxing withdrawals is fine, although somewhat rare as a method for doing things. But you have to be consistent about it: no changing plans midway through, that really messes up people's retirement prospects.

author: langwadt
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 08:54:35 am
content: Quote from: tom66 on April 07, 2025, 08:25:50 amhere it makes a difference because there's an extra 15% tax on income above ~90k€/year

author: temperance
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 09:03:54 am
content: Stock markets and saving money is for old people.With a little creativity you can make a good money from nothing. There are several YT channels featuring videos with titles such as:Trump Humiliated by journalistTrump caught LYINGMUST SEE Trump slams door on journalistMUST SEE: Trump and Elon musk visit the toilet and got flushed into oblivion.Those channels get +400K to 600K per video in 24h...And some have over 2 million subscribers.If you want to make money from nothing you create an AI generated blonde with a helpless attitude and certain body parts exposed reading some recycled news. Creating an endless stream of useless content is easy. You just recycle every bit of news three or four times by inserting some red hot comments obtained from other social media.With some cleverness most part of the job can be automated. Pure gold for those who don't have a problem with some disgusting exploitative opportunism.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 09:07:22 am
content: Quote from: tom66 on April 07, 2025, 08:25:50 amIf the tax rate was the same when paying in and withdrawing, then that would be correct.Normally when paying in you are earning more and are likely to be in a higher tax bracket. Normally when retired you have less income and so are probably in a lower tax bracket.

author: Whales
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 10:42:21 am
content: Will Bosch sensortech components go out of stock?

author: jonpaul
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 11:43:30 am
content: David, a long overdue correction for the huge assets bubble building since 20 years.Root cause is fiat currency debasement and so called central banks like ECB, Federal Reserve and UK treasury manipulation of interest rates.See the economics of Austrian school, Ludwig Von Mises, Murray Rothbart, Ron Paul,https://mises.org/library/book/what-has-government-done-our-moneyAudit and close the central banks, fix all currency to a gold standardEnjoyJon

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 12:27:30 pm
content: Quote from: tggzzz on April 07, 2025, 09:07:22 amYup - I believe they tax contributions at 15% vs normal income tax rates of 19-45%. My point is it's irrelevant as to how you implement that taxation, you can make a system equally fair either way around.

author: watchmaker
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 01:01:49 pm
content: Quote from: jonpaul on April 07, 2025, 11:43:30 amPlease explain the mechanism by which the gold standard operates? Not just cites that proclaim it the only true currency base, but the actual mechanism. How does it differ from clam shells?

author: SiliconWizard
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 01:23:24 pm
content: Quote from: watchmaker on April 07, 2025, 01:01:49 pmThe how is surely not fully trivial but currencies in general are fully based on trust and we have been trusting gold as a reserve of value for thousands of years. Go figure, it's just so.Looking at its market value, gold has been on a very steep upwards trend since about the 1970's and is currently skyrocketing. I don't see that with clam shells, but I may have missed it.You're of course entitled to think that the value of gold doesn't reflect its intrinsic value and that it all doesn't make any sense, but it's just so. It's hard to beat thousands of years of trust. It's a bit like religion.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 01:26:47 pm
content: Quote from: watchmaker on April 07, 2025, 01:01:49 pmClams are passé . Nowadays it is leaves, preferably from deciduous forests.What is money? The answer is clearly stated on UK bank notes: "I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of X pounds". The key word is "promise". If and only if you believe the promise, then it has value.Apart from that, the "value" of something is not a unique value. Consider, for example, a glass of water. Sometimes a glass of water is expected to be free, sometimes a person will pay everything they have for a glass of water.

author: TimFox
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 02:50:41 pm
content: Quote from: SiliconWizard on April 07, 2025, 01:23:24 pmGold is valuable because we make it so. If we based currency on, say, silver and used gold only for practical purposes such as electronics, its rarity would keep its market value above iron or aluminum, but nowhere near its current price.It’s interesting to read the history of the gold standard between the wars. The UK decision to go back to gold at a rate that re-established parity with the dollar screwed the UK economy, which was in bad shape due to financing WW I by borrowing from Wall Street and J P Morgan, even though the home country suffered little physical loss (apart from the loss of so many soldiers) compared with the other warring European countries.Not that many years ago, large countries (India and China, for example) used silver, and the US was bimetallic (with the associated problem of defining the ratio between gold and silver).

author: watchmaker
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 03:33:27 pm
content: I agree the value of gold is psychological. I hold GLD simply because others think gold means something (my corollary to the greater fools theorem).But if people think it fixes a currency at some immutable value, think again. FDR increased the dollar to gold rate in the 1930s to devalue the dollar.If you really want a puzzle, what does a dollar represent? The best explanation I came across was that it represents a percentage share of the GDP.

author: RoGeorge
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 03:48:48 pm
content: Neah, gold is valuable because the Annunaki Gods need it for their planet Nibiru:Annunaki | Gods from Planet Nibiru and the Makers of ManThe Why Files

author: langwadt
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 04:16:05 pm
content: Quote from: SiliconWizard on April 07, 2025, 01:23:24 pmand all the gold in the world is only worth a fraction of the worlds economy

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 04:18:35 pm
content: Quote from: watchmaker on April 07, 2025, 03:33:27 pmWhat percentage? Is the percentage constant over time? I doubt it.Money is apromiseabout the future value. If people believe the promise, then money is useful. There are examples of what happens when people don't believe the promise, e.g. the Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe.Inflation is a way of reneging on that promise - by progressively reducing the current value of past debts (or future value of current debts).

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 04:25:27 pm
content: When he passed, I inherited my father's collection of hyperinflated Zimbabwean bank notes, he was born in then-Rhodesia and shall we say was not much of a fan of a certain R. Mugabe.It's rather amusing to see 11 orders of magnitude in a currency on one bank note series. Realistically almost no one accepted Zimbabwean currency in Zimbabwe, it was mostly a fiction that the government created to pretend it had any economic competence. As a result these notes are quite rare since toilet paper was often more valuable. Instead, you paid for most things in rand or USD.And in reality it was more than 11 orders of magnitude since the final 100 billion dollar note was a quadruple revalued series. IIRC at the time of issuance it was 'worth' about $100.Given the present actions by No.47, maybe I should leave some space for adding some USD to it...

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 05:09:08 pm
content: Quote from: tom66 on April 07, 2025, 04:25:27 pmMy daughter knew a 16yo at a local school, who had been brought up on a farm in Zimbabwe around the turn of the millennium. As well as exuding the usual African self-reliance, he had already learned to be, ahem, circumspect.President Chamberlain won't live to see the long-term consequences of his actions, more's the pity.

author: artag
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 05:19:03 pm
content: Quote from: TimFox on April 04, 2025, 09:18:30 pmThe only thing we learn from history is that nobody ever learns from history.

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 05:37:51 pm
content: Quote from: artag on April 07, 2025, 05:19:03 pmIndeed. As Abraham Lincoln famously stated, "Don't believe everything you see written on the internet."Perhaps No.47 would do well to not believe everything he sees on Faux News and Xwitter/"Truth" Social.

author: UnijunctionTransistor
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 06:00:00 pm
content: Long time ago, I was explained a simple to understand analogy between inflation and unsupported currency:Four guys sit to play a poker game. Each purchases 1000 Euros worth of poker chips, and pays them with something of actual value, for this example let’s say is actual Euros. Right now, every chip unit is exactly equivalent to one Euro.The friends start playing, winning and losing, but the lousiest player is the one who is also acting as the bank. Turn out, he is not only a loser, but a cheater. Unbeknownst to the other players, he takes an additional 1000 Euros worth of chips, but he doesn’t actually pays for them.He has now introduced an additional 1000 units which are not backed by real assets.The game ends and everyone wants to cash the chips. But there are 5000 chips waiting to be exchanged and backed by only 4000 Euros! In other words, your chips have been devalued by 20% by the actions of the cheating banker.This is what central banks do; to fund deficits they will print unsecured money with the expectation, that there will be an economic miracle. In reality, this doesn’t happen and everyone else is left with a bag of devalued currency.

author: vidarr
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 07:26:35 pm
content: Inflation is caused by money creation and nothing else.The USD is a fiat currency, no doubt, but it is very much tied to the future labor of Americans and successful business. Someone above said that all the gold in the world is just a tiny percentage of the global economy (or something like this). That is true and especially considering that it is not just the current economy, but the potential of the future economy. We are constantly borrowing from the labor and successes of the future.America's current work value and future value make the dollar stronger than gold, that is one reason the world invests in the USD. It also doesn't hurt that the global oil market has to be conducted in USA dollars, which is a large part of why the USD is the global reserve currency.But, I invest in gold right now and have been for the last ten years. It has done very well.BTW, on a kind of side note, countries that start to invest heavily in gold, become very suspicious to the major central banks and this causes their countries to become devalued instead of becoming more valuable. It sends a signal that their currency is becoming weaker and weaker, along with some other factors.The USD is slated for destruction in the not to distant future. This will be done for many reasons, but especially to force Americans onto the CBDCs.Read between the lines to understand the true evil intent (they have toned down the rhetoric on their website now; it used to be much more, "in your face evil". Maybe someone backed up an earlier version on the wayback machine...):https://www.federalreserve.gov/cbdc-faqs.htmYou are at the money creators' mercy when this happens. It is no longer a currency like you know of. It is more like vouchers. They can be handed out, or taken away at their will. What you use your CBDCs to buy is also completely under their control. If they think you have flown too much, they can shutdown your CBDCs from buying plane tickets. There will be quotas on just about everything (all revolving around the so-called climate crisis). If they decide you only get a 1/4 kilo of beef per month, your CBDCs will cut you off when you reach that limit. CBDCs will also be tied to your social credit score ---just like in China. Maybe you jay-walk, so then, they cut you off train and bus travel service for a month. This system is operational in China and it is being studied and is planned to be rolled out globally. Ukraine is a hair away from CBDCs and social credit scores. They are going to get it, probably in the next few years.

author: bdunham7
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 07, 2025, 08:00:35 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 07, 2025, 12:38:50 amWell, no crash but no rally either. I think this might have been an issue for the Inverse Cramer ETF--he can be completely wrong but the inverse bet doesn't pay off either.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 06:04:55 am
content: Well, the NASDAQ finished UP slight today, and the S&P down just a smidge at 0.2%.So much for the panic of 1987And the ASX just closed 2.2% upInverse Cramer still rules, at least for today.

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 07:30:25 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 08, 2025, 06:04:55 amA lot of it is just acceptance that No.47 isn't shifting on his policies - so prices have been bedded in for the new normal. A bit like how Brexit caused a morning crash in FTSE100 trading, but after that... nothing much.Look at the last 3 months since the start of his admin and the beginning of trade war talks. The S&P500 has lost about 18%. That's in the same range as the COVID crash. It's been a slow crash unlike COVID, but a similar magnitude of value has been wiped away.There's no doubt that the US has been hit hard by this... the question really will be, will it pay off? Well, in the history of economics, tariffs have never made overall trade higher, so... probably not? But, Americans voted for this, so let them find out. Meanwhile, we will see if markets regain confidence - if the industries do genuinely come back, then No.47 will be lauded as a hero. Somehow, I don't think that will happen and he'll earn two spots on the "worst president of the US" list.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 10:02:57 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 08, 2025, 06:04:55 amThat's because the administration is being sued by the hard right, claiming the tariffs are illegal.https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/07/trump-tariffs-lawsuitThat leads tohopethat tariffs will be dropped."It's just a interesting non sequitur that popped in my mind, chill out."

author: watchmaker
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 11:21:51 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 08, 2025, 06:04:55 amEhhh... A single datapoint doth not a trend make. Rebound or dead cat bounce? I will suspend judgement.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 11:46:41 am
content: Quote from: vidarr on April 07, 2025, 07:26:35 pmStaple crops can impact almost all food prices. Cost of oil can influence almost all prices.Even if you ignore short term supply shocks, long term shifts in cost of production relative to value of labour (overpopulation, peak natural resource production, whatever) and rents (wealth accumulation) can cause inflation. Supposing an exactly constant set of cost-of-production/value-of-labour/rents, so monetary inflation is the only inflation makes economics easy, but it's pretty silly.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 12:18:14 pm
content: Quote from: watchmaker on April 08, 2025, 11:21:51 amIn this case one data point (several actually, with ASX + NYSE + others due to timezones) tells you an awful lot.Over the weekend the doom and gloom press was at fever pitch, futures were predicting a meltdown come BLACK MONDAY!, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria.Monday came and there was no doom and gloom, none of it came to pass.And now as I type this it's the end of Tueday, and the ASX is back up 2.2%, S&P 500 is flat. Even the dreaded NASDAQ was slightly up.Can it fall again, sure, but damn, that single day definitely told you a lot about the prevailing market psychology.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 12:19:41 pm
content: Quote from: tggzzz on April 08, 2025, 10:02:57 amThere is more to global financial psychology than US politics.

author: vad
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 12:46:14 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 08, 2025, 12:18:14 pmTomorrow, April 9, when the tariffs officially take effect, we might see another drop. After that, it could be a good time to invest. Anyone planning to buy Tesla? The stock, not the BEV.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 12:57:35 pm
content: Quote from: vad on April 08, 2025, 12:46:14 pmAt 114 P/E, no dividends, plus the political risk, no thanks.P/E is at least twice as high as the previous few years average.Owning some as part of a tech index ETF is enough exposure.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 01:06:02 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 08, 2025, 12:19:41 pmYou've snipped"It's just a interesting non sequitur that popped in my mind, chill out."where I was channelling you to indicate that it is a silly concept.TBH I'm not sure how much President Chamberlain and his acolytes can comprehend, especially outside the US. (I've seen US news programmes where "foreign news" means out of state news, not outside the US!)

author: vad
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 02:43:59 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 08, 2025, 12:57:35 pmOk, so I took a look at another big tech stock - NVDA, and its P/E forecast for 2026-28 looks gloomy too, probably due to uncertainty with potential future tariffs on chips.So I’ll either get some VGT or stick to VTI, once the dust settles.

author: AVGresponding
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 06:09:57 pm
content: Quote from: vad on April 08, 2025, 02:43:59 pmNVDA stock is dropping because they put all their eggs in the AI basket and flipped the bird at the people that made them big; gamers. AI is already running cost or a slight loss when it comes to hardware, so their big server AI basket is not the gravy train they expected, and the latest gen of GPU hardware is... less than stellar

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 06:46:30 pm
content: Also the DeepSeek effect: it has been determined that models distilled from larger models are surprisingly capable. DeepSeek-R1 is almost as good as ChatGPT-4o, but it's around 1/4 the size. 1/4 the model size = 1/4 the GPUs required (~roughly).

author: neverendingstudent
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 08:11:37 pm
content: At this point, I'm genuinely wondering if supreme leader trump is intentionally crashing the market while telling his stock broker and all his buddies to buy low, only so he can later on say 'you know what, let's pause tariffs for now' so stocks will go up and they can all sell at a quick profit.Rinse, repeat, destroy millions of lives, retirement pensions, and the world economy to make a quick buck.

author: vad
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 08:17:31 pm
content: Quote from: neverendingstudent on April 08, 2025, 08:11:37 pmSo far, he has been consistent with his election promises. When he was running for president, he promised to impose tariffs. Nobody, except Warren Buffett, listened or took him seriously.

author: tom66
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 08:33:12 pm
content: Quote from: vad on April 08, 2025, 08:17:31 pmIndeed.Although, he also said the stock market would love them. So I guess he didn't keep all of his promises.“We are a nation whose stock market’s continued success is contingent on MAGA winning the next election.”“If Harris wins this election, the result will be a Kamala economic crash, a 1929-style depression. 1929. When I win the election, we will immediately begin a brand new Trump economic boom. It’ll be a boom. We’re going to turn this country around so fast. Many people say that they only reason the stock market is up is because people think I am going to win.”

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 08:38:40 pm
content: Quote from: neverendingstudent on April 08, 2025, 08:11:37 pmI doubt he is doing that, but what about the hedge fund managers/owners who have backed him and whispered into his ear?"Disaster capitalism" at its finest

author: vad
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 08:47:45 pm
content: Quote from: tom66 on April 08, 2025, 08:33:12 pmPromising to do something, like imposing tariffs, is within Trump’s powers (some might argue that imposing tariffs is the exclusive right of the House, but that’s not the point of this discussion).Promising that investors would love this action, however, is not within his control. Understanding how tariffs impact the economy requires some knowledge and analytical skills.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 09:10:21 pm
content: Quote from: watchmaker on April 07, 2025, 03:33:27 pmYou need to drill down to what money is being used for: trade for a piece of labour. So money value presents labour. With more people working in an economy, you'll need more money to cover the labour the workers can produce. Central banks can control this amount of money by borrowing money (aka printing money) and/or change interest rates. Higher interest rates means central banks suck money from the economy, lower (or even negative) interest rates means central banks push money into the economy. Fixed values like gold standards are not going to work at all since these don't have the flexibility to keep the value more or less constant. Ideally at a few percent inflation to keep people from saving money in a mattress as that results in the money not being available to better the economy.And yes, the form of money does rely on trust. Some cultures actually used shells as money. The Brittish have transported ships filled with particular shells to buy slaves in Africa.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 08, 2025, 11:40:59 pm
content: Quote from: vad on April 08, 2025, 08:47:45 pmNo tariff talk here please, there is a thread for that that's already getting out of hand.

author: watchmaker
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 12:20:28 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 08, 2025, 12:18:14 pmDead cat bounce or bear market bounce.Everyone here should accept that this is a SECULAR sea change, not cyclical. This is not something that past patterns can help with.Here is the main thing I pay attention to in times like this:https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.VIXAs you can see, it currently has a higher delta than at any time since it has been measured. The 2020 peak was higher, but its delta is lower. This suggests being circumspect and that this is not the time to be greedy and think we know to call the bottom. For me, I can forgo some runup to be confident the trend is real.Good fortune to all. This is shaping up to be a very difficult year for investors AND workers.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 12:33:08 am
content: Quote from: watchmaker on April 09, 2025, 12:20:28 amOnly if you bought in at the peak in the last 6 months. If you had a portfolio that's just been sitting there for years, this is a nothing-burger.

author: bdunham7
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 12:44:51 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 09, 2025, 12:33:08 amSo far...People with less experience that only remember the March 2020 crash may assume that a fast recovery is normal. Even the recovery from the 2008 crash was pretty rapid after 2009 or so and the reason was the same--fiscal policy, mostly ZIRP. But those crashes had more or less clear causes, problems that could be fixed by pouring money on them. Today there is a huge risk of continuous crumbling coupled with high inflation and high interest rates. The "real bottom" may come in a little while when we have 10% unemployment, 12% inflation and 14% interest rates.

author: MT
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 12:55:31 am
content: NASDAQ -11.27% past 5 days

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 01:05:17 am
content: Quote from: MT on April 09, 2025, 12:55:31 amNASDAQ also peaked 23% up this year. Almost 32% if you count the bottom in April 2024Up almost 100% to peak if you count the bottom end of 2022.It also dropped 35% in the first half of 2022.You can spin the numbers any way you like.

author: vk6zgo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 01:24:28 am
content: Quote from: watchmaker on April 07, 2025, 03:33:27 pmBack in the day, when the Spanish Conquistadores stole shiploads of gold from Central & South America, there was a pronounced "glitch" in the economy of Europe, which was all based on gold.

author: MT
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 01:44:43 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 09, 2025, 01:05:17 amExactly! Thats the point.

author: vad
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 03:37:57 am
content: Quote from: MT on April 09, 2025, 01:44:43 amI’m not concerned about how much the stock market has already lost over the past 5 days. I’m more worried about how low it could fall in the coming months, once disruptions to supply chains start materializing and businesses begin reporting revenue losses. I doubt anyone today can estimate the magnitude of the impact of this shock on the economy.

author: bdunham7
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 03:49:17 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 09, 2025, 01:05:17 amFor the typical non-super-rich retail investor you want to look at their investment timing and practices. If you bought into the NASDAQ on a regular basis since 2003 you would be about even right now. Starting later than that, you're losing and earlier by a year you might be ahead (but not very far). Sure if you started in 2008 or 1963 you would have accrued a large nominal gain. This year has still been a substantial setback so far.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 04:20:43 am
content: Quote from: vad on April 09, 2025, 03:37:57 amIf you are absolutely sure of that then you can short the market and win big.It could also go the other direction to what you think.The only guaranteed winners are the brokers.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 07:44:02 am
content: Quote from: bdunham7 on April 09, 2025, 12:44:51 am"Stagflation" is a spectre that haunts markets.I wonder what would happen if China starts seriously selling its vast holdings of US Treasury Bonds. Traditionally that has been regarded as unlikely because it would be bad for both nations, but we aren't living in traditional times.This article looks like a good starting pointhttps://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/040115/reasons-why-china-buys-us-treasury-bonds.aspIt notes some unpleasant consequences when selloffs happened in the past. Maybe China will think the time is ripe; after all, they are calling President Chamberlain "comrade nation builder".

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 07:47:47 am
content: Quote from: vk6zgo on April 09, 2025, 01:24:28 amAnd then there's the consequences of China's reliance on silver, the consequences of which still make headline news. The Chinese haven't forgotten.

author: watchmaker
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 11:22:55 am
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 09, 2025, 04:20:43 amMost people who play with options do not know how to analyze the situation in order to get the desired outcome. I do not recommend that. The money is better spent with a financial advisor who is a Fiduciary, not a Jim Cramer.We went all cash in late February and have it in a 4.1% money market. My risk here is if we "break the buck", but I am doing my best to monitor that. At the appropriate time (hopefully) we also will spread our investments across institutions to take advantage of FDIC and SPIC; not that there is any guarantee they will pay out. We also have cash in the safe.These are lessons learned from my parents who got through the 1930s Depression.

author: MT
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 12:04:06 pm
content: Quote from: vad on April 09, 2025, 03:37:57 amJust an example that numbers can be spin'ed in any direction over a time span. Stock market does not reflect the real value of a company but vast number of people believe so. You are trying to "time"minutes, hours, days, months etc, to a stock market crash like 1929, good luck!"The World Is a Business, Mr. Beale"

author: MT
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 12:24:18 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 09, 2025, 04:20:43 amwith the sneakiest high speed trading algorithms on very fast computers..............but only maybe.

author: Seekonk
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 01:12:47 pm
content: The poor will get poorer and the rich will get richer. I had a sizable amount of cash sitting on the sidelines. These are the days I wait for. Those who panic and liv on the edge will lose. Last five days I have been buying stock. Quality stocks never go out of style.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 04:03:15 pm
content: Quote from: Seekonk on April 09, 2025, 01:12:47 pmBut what are quality stocks? If you want to bet somewhat safely, buy the mix the index is made up from. Not individual shares. Some shares which peaked during the early 2000's techno bubble never recovered from the 2001/2002 techno crash.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 04:20:55 pm
content: Quote from: MT on April 09, 2025, 12:24:18 pmNot computers, but FPGAs.Don't forget a close physical location is necessary.Don't forget it is beneficial to have the propagation delay being 3e8m/s rather than 2e8m/s.Largeinvestments are made to ensure those.

author: bdunham7
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 04:28:21 pm
content: Quote from: Seekonk on April 09, 2025, 01:12:47 pmGE, Nokia, Kodak, Sears & Roebuck, Xerox.....

author: vad
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 07:00:56 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 09, 2025, 04:20:43 amNo thank you. If I wanted to gamble, I’d go to a casino, where the rules are clear and the odds are known, unlike playing the stock market under this administration:Quote

author: watchmaker
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 09:01:54 pm
content: All on the whim of one human being. I have no idea where we are and I will not gamble.

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 09:17:54 pm
content: Quote from: watchmaker on April 09, 2025, 09:01:54 pmCan you remind me, how many people voted for him?

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 09:18:18 pm
content: Quote from: watchmaker on April 09, 2025, 09:01:54 pm...guided by the reaction of the Treasury Bond market.In the UK we were recently subjected to this kind of economic terrorism, by our PM, Liz Truss. She lasted 49 days before being defenestrated by her own party. A local low-brow newspaper covered itself in glory by live streaming a picture of an iceberg lettuce, with the question whether the lettuce or Truss would last longer. The lettuce won.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss_lettuceNonetheless we are still suffering the consequences in the form of increased cost of borrowing on the bond market. I expect the US will have that problem too.

author: TimFox
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 09:51:17 pm
content: Quote from: tszaboo on April 09, 2025, 09:17:54 pmAlthough he won the 2024 election fair and square, he did not get a majority of the popular vote (just a plurality), and by coincidence his margin in the Electoral College was exactly by the same numbers as the previous fair and square election (2020). Trump received 49.8% of the popular vote in 2024, only 46.1% in 2016 but he won in the Electoral College.Recent popular vote numbers:Trump (2024) 77,302,580 (vs. 75,017,613 for Harris, not a landslide, 49.8% vs 48.3%)Biden (2020) 81,283,501 (vs. 74,223,975 for Trump)Trump (2016) 62,984,828 (vs. 65,853,514 for H Clinton, who lost the Electoral vote)Obama (2012) 65,915,795 (vs. 60,933,504 for Romney)There have been "landslide" elections in the postwar era: by electoral and popular vote (percentage):Johnson over Goldwater (1964), 486 to 52, with 61% of the popular voteReagan over Carter (1980), 489 to 59, with 50.8% of the popular vote (only a landslide in the Electoral vote, with a substantial third-party candidate popular vote)Nixon over McGovern (1972), 520 to 17, with 60.7% of the popular voteReagan over Mondale (1984), 525 to 13, with 58.8% of the popular vote.

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 10:43:13 pm
content: Quote from: TimFox on April 09, 2025, 09:51:17 pmOk so he got more votes. In a democracy.He is also just implemented one of the things he said he would.https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-president-trumps-new-trade-plan-to-protect-american-workersLike word for word, introduced universal baseline tariffs.

author: TimFox
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 10:57:58 pm
content: Today, he paused much of this for 90 days.The stock market, which was depressed, rejoiced at the news.Meanwhile, the fact-check industry confirms my default setting about every quantitative statement, e.g exaggeration of the already huge Chinese trade deficit, which did not require exaggeration to be large.

author: Stray Electron
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 10:59:39 pm
content: Quote from: vad on April 08, 2025, 12:46:14 pmI was seriously considering it but I didn't. Then their stock value rose 24% today!

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 11:03:43 pm
content: Quote from: TimFox on April 09, 2025, 09:51:17 pmKeep the politics out of this. Any more of this and I start deleting posts.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 11:11:04 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 09, 2025, 11:03:43 pmPlease start with the emotional posts rather than those with cold hard quantitative facts.

author: watchmaker
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 11:13:05 pm
content: Actually, your question is a diversion and of no relevance to an investor.The fact that one person can take actions that create such market swings is unprecedented. And that day traders and algorithms jump in is no interest to me. They do what they do, and I do what I do.Celebrating todays' gains is the gambler's fallacy of only looking at winnings. All indices (and I only watch the S&P, Russell and Nasdaq) are well below their March highs (when I went to cash). When a market drops 50%, it has to double to regain the lost ground.Since I am an investor, and not a day trader, the "rally" of today is of no interest to me. And given my 4.1% money market account, I have a reasonable place to keep my resources growing and safe.As for when I decide to redeploy those funds, it depends on trends, not single data points. And you can argue that multiple indices are not a single datapoint, but for me, the datapoint is the blended closings. I got plenty of time and patience to see how things unfold.Now for those working and contributing to 401Ks, I truly hope their account bought during the last few days. But that is beyond their control.

author: Andy Chee
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 11:40:04 pm
content: Most concerning is the potential for insider trading.e.g. Trump could give his staffers advance notice of application/pausing of tariffs before making an Oval office or TwitterX public proclamation. The staffers can then purchase/sell the appropriate stock.

author: Analog Kid
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 11:56:19 pm
content: Quote from: EEVblog on April 09, 2025, 11:03:43 pmWTF? ? ? ? Writing that Trump won the 2024 election fair and square (which he did, BTW, regardless of what your view of him is) is now "politics" and verboten?My, my, how low the bar has fallen ...

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 11:56:50 pm
content: Quote from: watchmaker on April 09, 2025, 11:13:05 pmEr. Who and what question?

author: Stray Electron
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 09, 2025, 11:58:38 pm
content: Quote from: Andy Chee on April 09, 2025, 11:40:04 pmAnd what make you even IMAGINE that that is solely confined to Trump and his administration??? Politicians and their families and their cronies have been benefiting from insider trading for centuries. Take an honest look at the Biden family for example. Have you ever seen a politician and his/her entire family that didn't get much richer when they held office?

author: Analog Kid
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 10, 2025, 12:01:34 am
content: Quote from: Andy Chee on April 09, 2025, 11:40:04 pmSame goes for E. Musk. I mean, what could possibly go wrong with giving the richest man--who has umpteen $billion of business with the federal gov't.--and his people unlimited access to Treasury Dep't. computers?Can you say "no-bid contract"?

author: bdunham7
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 10, 2025, 12:08:08 am
content: Quote from: Analog Kid on April 09, 2025, 11:56:19 pmWhat would you call it if not politics? Cabinetmaking? Astrology?

author: watchmaker
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 10, 2025, 12:46:29 am
content: Quote from: tggzzz on April 09, 2025, 11:56:50 pmQuote from: tszaboo on April 09, 2025, 09:17:54 pmYours.Actually, your question is a diversion and of no relevance to an investor.The fact that one person can take actions that create such market swings is unprecedented. And that day traders and algorithms jump in is no interest to me. They do what they do, and I do what I do.Celebrating todays' gains is the gambler's fallacy of only looking at winnings. All indices (and I only watch the S&P, Russell and Nasdaq) are well below their March highs (when I went to cash). When a market drops 50%, it has to double to regain the lost ground.Since I am an investor, and not a day trader, the "rally" of today is of no interest to me. And given my 4.1% money market account, I have a reasonable place to keep my resources growing and safe.As for when I decide to redeploy those funds, it depends on trends, not single data points. And you can argue that multiple indices are not a single datapoint, but for me, the datapoint is the blended closings. I got plenty of time and patience to see how things unfold.Now for those working and contributing to 401Ks, I truly hope their account bought during the last few days. But that is beyond their control.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 10, 2025, 01:18:20 am
content: Quote from: Analog Kid on April 09, 2025, 11:56:19 pmYes it is politics, stop it or I start deleting posts. If you can't control yourself, exit this thread.

author: EEVblog
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: April 10, 2025, 01:19:31 am
content: Quote from: Analog Kid on April 10, 2025, 12:01:34 amMore politics, last warning.

author: BravoV
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: April 10, 2025, 02:15:24 am
content: A grand insider trading, superbly done by the president himself, nice eh ?