I have the feeling that the whole trade war starts from a pile of nonsense. - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: technix
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 22, 2019, 07:37:14 pm
content: So the reason we have a trade war at hand is because of the US-China trade deficit: China is importing way less things overall from US than vice versa. Meanwhile inside China I am feeling the pressure of US trade embargo, from FPGA's to computer parts. This give me the feeling that the thole US-China trade deficit is a manufactured situation by US in the first hand, hence the title "it starts from a pile of nonsense."The reason why China imports way less things from US is the willingness of US to sell - not the willingness of US companies, but the willingness of US government to approve the sales. Rigol COULD have built their oscilloscopes with Analog Devices ADC. Tencent COULD have built their server farm using Intel processors. Baidu COULD have filled their AI labs with nVidia graphics cards. The US DOC banned ADI from selling chips to Rigol, banned Intel from selling chips to Tencent, and banned nVidia from selling chips to Baidu. Now being embargoed, those companies have to look elsewhere: Rigol designed their own high speed ADC, Tencent managed to convince the government to approve a joint venture with AMD, and Baidu started designing their own AI chipset. ADI, Intel and nVidia are three examples of US companies that used to have no competitors in China, but now they do. Thanks to DOC embargoes now US government reduced its exports to China and created competitors, hence manufactured the trade deficit themselves.As of Huawei, well now they are activating all their Plan B suppliers, most of which Chinese companies. US just manufactured dozens upon dozens of competitors for TI, ADI, ON Semi, etc, with one swish of the pen of the President. China overall is likely going to buy even less things from US in the future - not just Huawei as being a Huawei supplier is going to be a huge brand confidence boost for those Plan B suppliers and being used to convince mre companies to switch suppliers, and the supply chain is less likely going to move than before from China, a scenario not going to be helpful for reducing the amount of goods US buy from China.As of soybeans? Even EU is not okay with US forcing China buying more soybeans from US. The primary food of Chinese people is rice anyway so it won't hurt much if tofu and meat supplies reduces a bit. As of cooking oil China have the technology to extract cooking oil from rice kernel, and what is the primary food for Chinese people again?

author: technix
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 22, 2019, 07:58:04 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on May 22, 2019, 07:45:48 pmI am calling the use of a manufactured trade deficit as an execuse nonsense. The trade deficit is manufactured when US put an embargo on exporting certain high end civillian use equipment to China.Quote from: blueskull on May 22, 2019, 07:45:48 pmNon english text removed by moderator.What is nonsense to me the the plan on making money - China is not that interested in soybeans and lobsters anymore, let alone the fact that even EU isn't too happy with China buying that many food from US while leaving it alone either. What China is interested is under embargo, but US is not willing to sell.Quote from: blueskull on May 22, 2019, 07:45:48 pmSo are you talking the undereducated *** (based on the exit polls of 2016 election as the group most prominantly supported Trump,) or are you talking the side effect of Putin's actions?

author: rstofer
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 22, 2019, 08:26:05 pm
content: Quote from: technix on May 22, 2019, 07:58:04 pmHillary killed her chances of election when she brought up the "Basket of Deplorables". I have the T-shirt!Remember this: Everything the US buys from China is fungible - we can buy it anywhere. So, do be careful when talking about The Deplorables, you need us a lot more than we need you.

author: technix
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 22, 2019, 08:36:24 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on May 22, 2019, 08:18:08 pmWhen color, religion and gender, especially together, have a strong correlation with the actual data, it is hard and technically inaccurate not to name it as such it when citing that data point. My expression should have been a straightforward paraphrase to the expressions used in actual CNN poll data.Quote from: rstofer on May 22, 2019, 08:26:05 pmI am just quoting CNN data points. Also this "you need us a lot more than we need you" thing is rooted in nowhere.

author: thm_w
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 22, 2019, 08:43:03 pm
content: Quote from: technix on May 22, 2019, 07:37:14 pmCheck out theDG800 thread, they use TI for processor, AD for DAC, Micron memory, etc.The one major chinese branded part are the relays, which makes sense because they use so many and the cost is 5x less or so over Omron. Its also a simple part, so validation testing is feasible.

author: soldar
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 22, 2019, 08:43:34 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on May 22, 2019, 08:26:05 pmI totally disagree with this. You cannot buy everything elsewhere and the things you can buy elsewhere you cannot buy them at the same price.And, contrary to what most Americans believe, America's demand is a a much smaller portion than you think. China's economic growth is fueled mainly by internal demand and of China's exports less than 20% go to the USA.Trade wars are stupidly stupid and nobody is going to win anything in the short run but my prediction is that in the long run China will come out ahead of the USA.Empires just have a hard time accepting their decline and they become dangerous when they try to use force. I remember when I was a kid and every day in the news was the French war in Algeria. Then came Vietnam. Sometimes it is better to just let go.

author: technix
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 22, 2019, 08:46:08 pm
content: Quote from: thm_w on May 22, 2019, 08:43:03 pmMeanwhile in their 5000 series oscilloscopes the only major US chip is the Zynq, which can be replaced with a Gowin FPGA + Allwinner/HiSilicon CPU.

author: rstofer
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 22, 2019, 08:56:29 pm
content: This isn't really a trade war, it is simply a tax increase. We pay more for the same stuff. The question is, what is the marginal utility of one more <whatever>? Is it worth 25% more? No? Then don't buy it. But if it is worth 25% more then life goes on and the .gov collects more taxes.This little hiccup in the cost of goods is totally unimportant. Walmart announced they would raise prices. So? It still comes back to marginal utility. How bad do I want <whatever>?

author: technix
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 22, 2019, 09:05:13 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on May 22, 2019, 08:56:29 pmNow you are further stripping the poor of the little money they have. You might have a riot at your hands soon, if not that at least a big increase in crime rate.

author: technix
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 22, 2019, 09:11:43 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on May 22, 2019, 09:03:08 pmI think the word you want to use here is “independent” instead of “isolated”.EU is still trading with China. And there is no additional tariffs other than business as usual between China and EU. It is also cheaper to ship things to Europe, since Asia and Europe is a single landmass and railways work.Once China and EU start signing currency swaps, one of the cornerstones of the whole superpowerhood of US would start coming loose. It is the 2nd and 3rd largest economy in the world, and that kind of currency swaps will allow China-EU trade to bypass US dollars entirely.

author: maginnovision
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 22, 2019, 09:12:14 pm
content: I think there is more fake "hate propaganda" in the US than real. Look at how many things they take out of context to make it seem bad. "Illegal murderous gangs are animals":"illegals are animals" for instance.

author: technix
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 22, 2019, 09:26:19 pm
content: Quote from: maginnovision on May 22, 2019, 09:12:14 pmThis is post-factual sensational media for you. Social media does not usual require the source to maintain credibility, and the only metric of popularity of an opinion is the clicks it gains. This makes the whole climate of press to recess back to the time before newspapers invented the subscription model, when yellow journalism prevailed.I believe most of us here speak with facts and data points in mind. If I tag a [citation needed] on a statement you made I believe you can start throwing data points and bibliography my way to prove it.

author: soldar
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 22, 2019, 09:42:12 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on May 22, 2019, 08:56:29 pmMy goodness! What kind of economic theory is that? This is the kind of thinking that lead to believe Mexico would pay for a wall.Trump's massive new tariffs could end up costing America 146,000 jobsTrump’s steel tariffs will cost 400,000 Americans jobs, a new estimate saysAluminum Tariff Tradeoff: 300 Jobs for $690 Million in New TaxesThere must be a name for this kind of thinking. First we invade Poland. After that everything is the same except we now have Poland.

author: rstofer
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 22, 2019, 10:46:47 pm
content: When you look at numbers from American media, you have to carefully look into who is talking and what they want out of it. None of those numbers are realistic. This tariff thing has been the topic of discussion all year and while the market isn't flying, it isn't falling much either. In fact, last month we added 200,000 jobs, unemployment is at record lows, unemployment among minorities is also at record lows and the tax cuts were probably worth something. It didn't benefit us personally but that's just a numbers game. We fell into a lower rate structure but lost some deductions so it came out a wash. Not so for anybody renting property, they didn't lose any deductions. Nor did their landlord.OTOH, the DJIA is up over 9% YTD and our retirement accounts are up a good deal more than that. The S&P 500 is up over 32% during Trump's tenure and his policies have added 4 million new jobs.Hint to trade negotiators: Trump WILL be re-elected. Waiting him out just delays things for another 4 years.And even if we lost 140,000 jobs due to tariffs, we have added about 200,000 jobs every month since Trump was elected. It'll all work out! That's why the markets haven't tanked. The markets know this is no big deal.

author: scuzzyTerminator
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: May 23, 2019, 12:12:04 am
content: The primary reason for US trade deficits is that the US export most in demand is US currency. When we buy goods from you, you are buying our dollars - the world's most valued reserve currency and accepted for goods around the world. Why would you waste them on US goods?

author: maginnovision
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 23, 2019, 12:36:03 am
content: Quote from: blueskull on May 22, 2019, 11:25:21 pmI think you're going to have a very skewed view of America and Americans if your two data points are fox commenters and tech media channels. Or media in general. Don't forget that journalists are not our best and brightest, they're average people on TV(YouTube, cable, etc...) Doesn't help that you've been in the university system which is pretty heavily biased. We will see what happens though.

author: rstofer
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 23, 2019, 01:04:08 am
content: Quote from: blueskull on May 22, 2019, 11:25:21 pmWhy is it sad? He's doing a great job for the country. The alternative was Hillary and that was the worst of all possible outcomes.QuoteThere seem to be some serious national security issues around allowing Huawei to populate our 5G network. On that basis alone, I would rather it be a company with ties to the US. As to cell phones? Who cares?As to Ms Meng's house arrest in Vancouver, she is in a lot better shape than the two Canadians held in China. I have no idea what the dust-up is about.QuoteOf course people want jobs. But you're right, tech workers in San Francisco, Seattle and Austin really don't care about the plight of blue-collar workers. I don't see that changing. I spent 27 years working in Silicon Valley, it isn't a forgiving place. The best place I worked was Singapore. What a trip!QuoteMaybe a few highly paid specialists but not grunt level engineers and they will be expensive!QuoteSee, that's not the way it works. If it did, Hillary would be President. A lot of people were certain she would win but it seems the Deplorables lied to the pollsters. Shame on them! Saying they were going to vote for Hillary and then voting for Trump. Shame!As to advancing the country? Well, just about every new invention on the planet starts in the US. Check the count of Nobel Prizes of US (250+) versus the next 6 countries combined. To be fair, there are 8 Chinese Nobel Laureates and all were well deserved.Oh, and congratulations on landing on the moon. We walked on it 6 times about 50 years ago. July 20th 1969 was the first trip and we're coming up on the 50 year mark in 2 months. Yes, I believe it is the most significant achievement in history.I think we can keep up... OTOH, I'm retired and no longer get involved with such things.

author: technix
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 23, 2019, 04:14:29 am
content: Quote from: rstofer on May 23, 2019, 01:04:08 amOh it is the few highly paid specialists that makes all the difference when brain drain happens. As of grunt level engineers Chinese universities produce them en masse, and Chinese engineering grunts costs way less than their US counterparts.And those highly paid engineers will find them suddenly surrounded with a much shorter supply chain and a much faster turnaround time. They are very likely to get much more productive in Shenzhen than in San Francisco. If you can see the JLCPCB ad, they are shipping boards out the next day after you ordered it, and for Shenzhen-based engineering teams this means that they are going to get the boards the next day after ordering or the day after.

author: windsmurf
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: May 23, 2019, 06:58:07 am
content: U.S. foreign affiliate sales, total sales of U.S. companies in China, plays a huge part of the Trade War storyhttps://youtu.be/VG-aEwY0R50

author: Echo88
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: May 23, 2019, 07:10:59 am
content: I hope this thread gets closed due to political stuff and blueskull leaves as fast as possible to China, so he can witness the evil US dictator from the greener side of the fence, where he continues to say "I dont need free speech, because i have nothing to say.".

author: windsmurf
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: May 23, 2019, 07:48:03 am
content: Quote from: rstofer on May 23, 2019, 01:04:08 amI'm no fan of China, especially its current human rights record. But I also dislike misinformation. So for the record...https://www.quora.com/What-country-has-contributed-the-most-inventions

author: soldar
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 23, 2019, 07:55:06 am
content: Quote from: Echo88 on May 23, 2019, 07:10:59 amThere is no need for personal attacks. You can make your point or disagree with the points others have made without needing to be rude to others here. Let's try to keep it civil. Please.

author: 2N3055
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 23, 2019, 08:02:24 am
content: Quote from: Echo88 on May 23, 2019, 07:10:59 amFree speech doesn't matter when you are brainwashed to know only one truth.USA is slipping into anti-democracy at breakneck speed, and while you might be able to say anything, you can't change anything. So end result is same as China..Except Chinese realize they can't change the system so they don't even bother. In USA people naively think their (public) opinion shapes country's destiny. It does not, in many ways less than in China.Also USA put dozens of people on the Moon 50 years ago. Except they didn't.USA paid for it but it was German and other scientists that spearheaded the project. As well as atomic bomb. Aside Feynman, most of non immigrants on the project were management, military, security, etc. It was literally carried on the shoulders of scientist that fled to USA from Nazis. As is most of the science in USA since, carried by immigrants, and Americans are mostly management. Not all and always, of course, but statistically significantly so.People from USA are always confusing what is made by USA and what is owned by USA.In normal circumstances, it is working fine. You let rest of the world create people that excel at science through first dozen of years of education, and then you pick smartest and brightest and offer them better pay and promise of bright future to leave their homes and come to USA.Than you integrate them in academia and finish their education by virtue of advanced projects and money USA has and their poor countries didn't.And that worked well for very long time.Americans wants to be lawyers and stock traders, or reality show celebrities.. They don't like hard work learning advanced math if they are going to be paid less than people in sales and marketing. It's capitalism, see, it just bad business. Goal is to maximise profit. STEM is not it.At his moment in USA, about 80% of graduate students in STEM related studies are not US citizens...And USA is making it clear that they are not welcome to stay..I'm not saying that they are not happy with how much are they paid.I'm saying that many of them are starting to feel like those scientist that fled Europe in the 1930-es......And then, on top of that, is that, back home, things got better, much better. So they go home, instead of staying where they are not welcome.Will America collapse because of that? No. But it will seriously hamper its ability to stay competitive in this game.And problem is that today USA is not on a forefront of many things.Problem is that you cannot live on old fame. 50 years ago NASA put a man on the moon. Today, they would have problem doing what Chinese did.USA capabilities degraded, and China made up for a technology gap. So did many other players.It is not USA/USSR game anymore. There is China and India. Europe recovered from WWII and is not needing USA to meddle in their affairs.Even NATO is questionable.Is it a great alliance of free world to protect Europe from Red Menace, or is it an instrument of blackmail that Orange Menace is using to force his former partners to do his bidding, and blackmail them to buy USA weapons to fill somebody's pockets.?So yeah, it's not black and white, or easy.That is why globalization happened.We need each other. We need for Russian Federation to play nice with Europe. We don't want WW3. We need for USA to obey international laws and not to bully other nations because they will nuke them otherwise. Because, if USA behaves that way, what is next? SEALs dressed as Mexican army will attack USA border post and than they invade Poland ?

author: soldar
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 23, 2019, 08:49:25 am
content: I am alarmed by the rise of nationalisms everywhere. Have we not learned anything from history?Ignorant mobs are easily excited against imaginary enemies. It is quite easy to inflame passions against internal minorities or against external imaginary threats. At first everything seems to go fine and leaders bask in glory. Then, predictably, things start turning south.When I was a kid America was the voice of reason preaching stability while communist countries were preaching all the crazy things and trying to upset the apple cart. I never imagined I would see the day when China would be the balanced voice of reason and stability while America has taken leave of her senses and is the one rocking the boat and creating instability.America lead the world not so much with military strength but with a moral standing which lead most free countries to side with her. Now that is gone and it is pretty much America alone facing the world. How anyone can think America can prevail is beyond me. If things continue down this path things cannot end well.We would do well to follow policies of cooperation rather than confrontation.

author: windsmurf
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: May 23, 2019, 10:20:33 am
content: Quote from: soldar on May 23, 2019, 08:49:25 amSoon dictionaries will just put up a picture of Trump for the word "Demagogue", and everyone will understand the meaning of the word.https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/demagogueNext up - war with Iran... a calculated move to boost up his approval ratings. Starting a war always improve Presidential approval ratings, and he's counting on it.