EU tariffs on US goods come into force - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: chris_leyson
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 24, 2018, 11:17:01 pm
content: EU tariffs on US goods are now in force,http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2018/may/tradoc_156909.pdfI can understand the tariff on steel, but rice, sweetcorn, orange juice, cranberries, jeans, shoes and anything with an internal combustion engineAnd these seemingly randomly chosen electronics goods have 50% tariff.85437001 Articles specifically designed for connection to telegraphic or telephonic apparatus or instruments or to telegraphic or telephonic networks85437002 Microwave amplifiers85437003 Cordless infrared remote control devices for video game consoles85437004 Digital flight-data recorders85437005 Portable battery operated electronic readers for recording and reproducing text, still image or audio file85437006 Digital signal processing apparatus capable of connecting to a wired or wireless network for the mixing of sound85437007 Portable interactive electronic education devices primarily designed for children (excl. toys of 95030087)85437008 Plasma cleaner machines that remove organic contaminants from electron microscopy specimens and specimen holders85437009 Touch screens without display capabilities, for incorporation into apparatus having a display (excl. those forelectric control of subheading 85371095)85437010 Electrical machines with translation or dictionary functions85437030 Aerial amplifiers85437001 Articles specifically designed for connection to telegraphic or telephonic apparatus..Does that include cellular base station eqipment ?85437005 Portable battery operated electronic readers for recording and reproducing text, still image or audio fileDoes that include smart phones and cameras ?85437006 Digital signal processing apparatus capable of connecting to a wired or wireless network for the mixing of sound. Professional audio gear.Microwave and aerial amplifiers ? Yeah like the EU buys container loads of LNAs. No tariffs on weapons and ammunition

author: Yansi
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 24, 2018, 11:39:01 pm
content: As an european, I can't say much more than... What the f!All the measures are made to screw you, the end customer after all. It won't hurt anybody else, that just the customer.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 24, 2018, 11:48:20 pm
content: So Trump goes after the big important commodities like a proper mercantilist. EU fucks around with scattershot which will just harm the economy with red tape ... no one is going to see a business opportunity in this, by the time the R&D is finished all this will be water under the bridge. Nice going EU, you make Trump look smart."anything with an internal combustion engine"Only one which makes sense, almost always big ticket items for which there are existing EU market alternatives.PS. I guess orange juice, jeans and shoes too.

author: chris_leyson
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 12:15:03 am
content: @Yansi. It just hurts the end customers. It also hurts the producers especially the farmers who grow oranges or cranberries, they're probably already finding it difficult to make a profit. I missed washing machines and electric fences out the list in my first post.The "electronics items" just looked like a random choice of things, most of the European customs codes don't even show up herehttps://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/chapters/85we're not even singing from the same hymn book.QuoteYeah, but jeans and shoes are not made in the USA, maybe Mexico or Indoneasia, somewhere where you can exploit cheap labour.

author: The Soulman
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 01:06:14 am
content: It's 3 am here, and I don't get it.

author: IanB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 01:23:14 am
content: I get the feeling that the things in the list at the top of the thread are not actually imported from the USA. America doesn't make those things anymore, so it doesn't have any such products to export. All modern electronic devices are made in the Eastern hemisphere. So the effect of those tariffs will be to cut out USA based "middle man" import/export houses, which will in turn cut out the margin they add to products, and ultimately will encourage direct import from the country of origin to the EU, reducing prices for consumers.A further benefit of removing the USA from the supply chain will be to reduce the impact of U.S. export controls on technology advancement, since the USA cannot regulate what does not touch its borders.

author: Ampera
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 01:49:34 am
content: Despite being an EU citizen, I don't currently have to live under this, but I think within recent time, the EU has started making some really risky moves, Cotton, and I don't think they will pay off.Article 13 is the big one right now that helps completely destroy the free speech platform of the internet. Include the China-style firewall that I've heard is in the works (citation needed I guess) and issues with tariffs, I don't know if I ever want to live in Germany if this sort of pizdec is going to be there.The US has had some whoppers with Net Neutrality, but at least since it's a nil regulation situation, states are, and some have made substitute regulation to keep net neutral practices in place. Considering the EU is I believe overstepping it's original ethos, I think the US is looking like a not bad place to live in some respects.There is also the fact that the fear of a regulation is usually hyperbolic. Despite, this is some deep shit, and if I really had bearing to, and could speak German, I'd be writing some letters to some EU MP's.

author: T3sl4co1l
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 01:51:15 am
content: Two guesses: 1. lobbying from specific businesses over there, 2. effectively, lobbying against those responsible over here.There was a recent article about tariffs on very specific two-wheel luxury motor vehicles. Harleys. The biggest and most glamorous employer in, I think it was Mitch McConnell's state?It's one thing to apply general tariffs to hurt a country's overall trade; it's another to make extremely narrow tariffs that don't hurt your own economy much at all, but act like a precision drone strike against the legislators responsible for it.It's not at all an unusual strategy, in fact it's straight from the WTO's policy recommendations. Free trade benefits all; restricted trade benefits some and harms many others. Oh, you don't want my trade? That's fine, see how you like it too.Tim

author: schmitt trigger
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 02:54:58 am
content: Tim, you nailed it with the “surgical strike” analogy. They are targeting the constituents of the congressional members who have endorsed Trump’s policies.Another example: bourbon.And it is not only the EU, China is following a similar strategy.

author: edpalmer42
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 03:13:56 am
content: Quote from: schmitt trigger on June 25, 2018, 02:54:58 amSo is Canada.https://www.fin.gc.ca/activty/consult/cacsap-cmpcaa-eng.aspTable 1 is boring. Table 2 is just plain bizarre. Everything from ball point pens to washing machines to maple syrup! Our news broadcasts also claimed that the list is designed to target Trump supporters.Ed

author: CatalinaWOW
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 05:26:20 am
content: What it looks like to me is politicians/bureaucrats on both sides of the oceans thinking with their testes.If you believe in free trade, you achieve it by raising tariffs?If you believe that the person starting the war is irrational, you use logical steps to provide pressure?No good will come of this, but I don't have any choice on participation.

author: mrf184
author_rank: Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 08:29:43 am
content: Government is the enemy of the people.Taxation is theft.

author: Tepe
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 09:10:01 am
content: Quote from: mrf184 on June 25, 2018, 08:29:43 amNo, not everywhere.Quote from: mrf184 on June 25, 2018, 08:29:43 amNot necessarily.

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 09:25:20 am
content: Quote from: CatalinaWOW on June 25, 2018, 05:26:20 amIf someone acts against you, you don't sit doing nothing. If you ignore it, it's a signal that they could bully you and walk away untouched. Therefore you will be bullied more and more.

author: ejeffrey
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 01:50:18 pm
content: Quote from: Marco on June 24, 2018, 11:48:20 pmThere is a random list of electronics stuff on the US tariffs too. The hilarious/sad thing is that I can avoid them by using overseas assembly houses, as almost all the electronics tariffs are on components not finished products. Of course that kind of inversion is always a risk with tariffs, but these ones seem almost deliberately designed to hurt US manufacturers by raising the cost of supplies for which there is no US alternatives while allowing the foreign competition to bring the finished product in avoiding the tariffs entirely.

author: Zero999
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 02:16:00 pm
content: Quote from: wraper on June 25, 2018, 09:25:20 amIt depends on the reason for their actions. If they're looking for a reaction, then it's better to ignore it, rather than retaliation.In this case, tariffs are bullshit and only hurt businesses and the consumer. I think the EU should have just ignored most of them and let the US suffer for its government's actions.

author: schmitt trigger
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 02:23:55 pm
content: You may be right, Hero.But what I think that the EU has become upset at the multiple snubs by president Trump. This was the proverbial drop that spilled the water.The threats of further taxing automobiles would cause additional pain, but would weight mostly to Germany.German automakers already have assembly plants in the USA. So they have an ace under their sleeve.

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 02:37:00 pm
content: Quote from: Hero999 on June 25, 2018, 02:16:00 pmAnd just sit and watch how we are loosing steel and aluminium market.FWIW US have done so much shit unpunished, act bold all the time without caring about other's interests, it's a miracle something like this did not happen earlier.

author: GeorgeOfTheJungle
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 02:44:18 pm
content: More taxes? Shut up and pay.

author: Zero999
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 02:48:01 pm
content: Quote from: wraper on June 25, 2018, 02:37:00 pmWhist Germany out-competes the US on manufactured goods, because they can import the raw materials more cheaply.

author: madires
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 03:26:18 pm
content: Only a small part of the steel and aluminium exported by the EU is imported by the US. The US import taxes on both will hit mostly China and the EU industry also complains about cheap steel/aluminium from China. But instead of collaborating Trump goes on trade war with everyone. I assume that Trump want's to prevent the EU steel becoming less expensive in comparison to Chinese steel when there's no import tax for the EU too. The problem is that the US can't produce more steel over night. For example, there are just four manufacturers of special steel for saws worldwide, two in the EU and the other two in China - none in the US. So much for national security. I think we'll see an escalation of the trade war since Trump already announced another tax package of 200 billiion US$ on imports from China.

author: stj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 04:01:36 pm
content: Quote from: edpalmer42 on June 25, 2018, 03:13:56 amare you saying communists (democrats) dont wash, cant write and dont eat breakfast??

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 04:31:47 pm
content: Meanwhile Harley Davidson has announced to move production for overseas markets to outside the USA. Other companies will probably follow. I think Trump fails to realise that the outside world is a much bigger market than the USA. All in all it is likely more jobs in the USA will be lost than gained.

author: rdl
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 06:17:21 pm
content: Quote from: The New York TimesAll Trump's fault for forcing those tariffs to be implemented by the E.U.

author: tszaboo
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 06:55:56 pm
content: Quote from: rdl on June 25, 2018, 06:17:21 pmI'm quite surprised, they are not yet banned in the EU. They are just big noisy wasteful polluting garbage, to mess with your neighbors. First thing they do on it after buying is tweak it to make more noise. All good they do is provide a steady supply of transplants.

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 06:58:34 pm
content: Whatever it takes to end unfair trade practices. if at the end of the day it gets people to the table to correct things, then it is worth it. USA has a 566 billion dollar trade deficit. the us cant get goods and services sold in other countries due to tariffs and unfair practices in many instances.The USA will come out on top of any trade war...WHY?The USA top exports currently are things they can use to then help produce items to sell back to the USA (and toher countries).basic things likefoodfuelraw materialsmachinery for manufacturer.items where they cant get the intellectual rights.so yea.. go ahead put tariffs on those....it only serves the interests of the usa to get people to the negotiation table.and while the USA is it, this whole stealing of intellectual property and then using it to produce and sell goods back tot he USA or any country should be fought much harder.Sure the USA can fault past administrations for making trade deals to help out other countries, but, now the USA is in a long-term trade hole, its been leaking money now for many decades, and frankly, it by the USA's own doing. and why would a country want to renegotiate those deals, is not in their best interest... The USA has to make it in their interest... the only way i know to do that is either a trade war or, the threat of one.and anyone who thinks this will have a net LOSS in jobs in the usa, simply needs to look at the economic facts, if the USA is importing less, The USA needs to produce more inside the usa. that means more jobs inside the usa.and that's simply if the USA just import and export less overall. if the USA gain more fair trade practices, the USA would gain even more jobs. There's no downside here. will costs of goods go up in some cases in the USA, yes, but there artificially low in some cases due to the unfair business practices. that is what drove US buisnesses to close in the first place.trade war?you realize that if the USA stopped importing and exporting completely (obviously not a reality) the USA would be up 566 billion dollars in trade. Thats 566 billion dollars more staying inside the usa!How can the usa leak 566 billion dollars a year in trade, and still stay afloat? The USA should be running and even trade deficit or even a trade surplus. its time that somone take the bull by the horns and turned this around.Trade WAR? Sure .. bring it on...it is long past due

author: CopperCone
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 07:03:44 pm
content: how is europe going to make its own microwave amplifiers without IC's from places like AD? Communications are extremely strategicly imporant. Do you really wanna buy Chinese comm equipment?This is either a internal shakedown of adjacent internal high tech industry (i.e. government benefits from shit that's going to be produced no matter what) being piggybacked on a political agenda, hamfisted, or in coohoots with venture capitalists that told politicians that they can produce those goods internally or establish favorable supply chains that don't exist currently and may outlast the war due to convenience but not be put in place without a war (damage control, harden the country (less demands on overseas stuff so you get harder to supply block and shit in a time of war, military likes this and can sleep easier), in addition to being a reasonable measure of course.If someone feels that the communications/MIC industry is basically forced for security reasons to buy American products for microwave (used heavily in aviation too), then the goverment is basically shaking them down, since their supply lines can't change and your just taxing a corporation. This may mean that the tax structure is not correctly weighed in the EU if these feelings exist and the situation is like this scenario envisions. They know that the European MIC won't downsize significantly because of Russia (look at Ukraine for the last 5 years)... all those countries are paranoid about Russia, so I strongly suspect this is just a random tax being thrown in there. It's well known that MIC basically sees the government as a cash cow, so this is how the government fights back. Lobbiests must not have penetrated to control the association that decides tarrifs. Payback for the insane government contract pricing.It's also well known that in a real conflict (look at what happened in Georgia/Russia) Russia will rely very heavily on electronics warfare and command and control, so any competent military will want to have the best possible shit to fight in this area, which IMO will mean American stuff. A big reason why that was a landslide victory for Russia is because of how well they carried out EW during the early stages of the conflict.German motors are of high quality so it does make sense to restrict import of shitty American ones into Europe.85437008 Plasma cleaner machines that remove organic contaminants from electron microscopy specimens and specimen holders85437009 Touch screens without display capabilities, for incorporation into apparatus having a display (excl. those forelectric control of subheading 85371095)More difficult to make reliable semiconductor manufacturing with these two in place.

author: Kleinstein
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 07:42:32 pm
content: The US economy is very much connected to other countries - so they need much of the imports and need to sell the products (especially things like software and films). Especially with these intellectual products it hurts if you can't export less. Another important factor for the US are financial services - a decline of world economy this way also hurts the US.I still don't understand much of the EU countermeasures. Some symbolic tariffs (e.g. whisky or peanuts) might be a good idea, but the toll on US steel imports mainly hurts the US, Canada and maybe China and Mexico. Much of the EU steel (especially from Germany) is special quality, they have to buy anyway and the toll is paid by US companies to make there products more expensive. So it's more like an extra tax for the US industry.President Bush tried this before and stopped it because it did hurt the US manufacturers more than it did help the steel producers. The slight positive effect for the steel producers was gone and turned the other way once the the tolls where stopped. The same would is expected this time.

author: madires
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 07:55:12 pm
content: For the people who just look at the balance of imported and exported goods: there are also services and investments.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 08:15:30 pm
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 25, 2018, 06:58:34 pmThose goods are physical, dollars are just paper/bits. From one point of view the US get the better deal out of it. On the other hand, trade and current account imbalances are tools disingenuously used by some globalist to force a new world order.QuoteFunny isn't it ... and most economists are fine with this, but at the same time aren't fine with unbounded debt/GDP ratios, useful idiots.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 08:19:51 pm
content: Quote from: madires on June 25, 2018, 07:55:12 pmThe US is also running a structural current account deficit, they are slowly selling their economy to foreigners (foreign to all nations).

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 08:32:42 pm
content: Quote from: Kleinstein on June 25, 2018, 07:42:32 pmJudging from what Trump said in his various speeches both before and after G7,aluminum and steel are security issues.Trump appears to admireAndrew Jackson, the 7th President of the United States. The article from Fortune"Trump Embraces Legacy of Andrew Jackson" merely talked about in terms of common man v rich and other factors, but it missed one of Andrew Jackson's famous viewthat America must be able to manufacture what it needs for its own defense. When placed in that backdrop, even if it is a money loosing preposition for tariff on aluminum and steel, it is a necessary thing.I must add, I am not in agreement with the some of points stated in the Fortune article. But I do agree with many of the points in the article. From wikipedia: "As president, Jackson sought to advance the rights of the "common man" against a "corrupt aristocracy" and to preserve the Union." This is exactly Trump's point in most of his speeches even before he became President. So, I am in general agreement that Trump probably may be styling himself after Andrew Jackson. Thus, Andrew Jackson's action in tariff and national defense may be an inspiring factor.I would therefore put steel, aluminum, and other defense related item in a different category than those merely for financial/job reasons. Fortune magazine's "Trump Embraces Legacy of Andrew Jackson"http://fortune.com/2017/02/19/donald-trump-andrew-jackson/ encyclopedia.com: Jackson's view on tariff and national defense"Jackson was a moderate on the tariff issue. He considered modest protection necessary to ensure the production of goods necessary for national defense and security, to establish a parity with European manufacturers, and to raise sufficient revenue to pay the national debt. He did not doubt the constitutionality of tariff protection."https://www.encyclopedia.com/people/history/us-history-biographies/andrew-jackson wikipedia page I referred to:As president, Jackson sought to advance the rights of the "common man" against a "corrupt aristocracy" and to preserve the Union.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Jackson

author: XynxNet
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 08:56:34 pm
content: Quote from: wraper on June 25, 2018, 02:37:00 pmWe already lost the run of the mill steel market to China and India.Not so much the special steel market.A few weeks back I vistited manufacturer for high precision high volume metal deep drawing products. They were a bit smirking about Trumps steel tarif with the US not beeing able to produce deep draw capable steel and having to import it.... so effectly taxing themself.Quote from: CopperCone on June 25, 2018, 07:03:44 pmWhere is the difference from a non-US perspective? Either way you don't get reliable security.

author: G7PSK
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 09:02:28 pm
content: If the EU was serious about tariffs that hurt the US they would all be on weapons and military gear and air planes.

author: nfmax
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 09:25:44 pm
content: A tariff on imported goods is paid ultimately by the domestic customer. Trump has 'cut taxes' (supposedly a Good Thing) and will be able to replace some of the lost revenue by 'defending American Industry' (also a Good Thing). But the ordinary US citizen will be no better off

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 09:36:20 pm
content: Quote from: CopperCone on June 25, 2018, 07:03:44 pmAD (for example) has a factory in Ireland and they won't be the only ones. Testing is generally done in the Phillipines. Only the really high-end stuff is probably still made in the US but exported as a die to Asia for testing & packaging.

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 10:02:26 pm
content: Quote from: nfmax on June 25, 2018, 09:25:44 pmthat is EXTREMELY short sighted. Yes, there will be some short term impact that will be negative, but the long-term impact will be to raise everyone up. History does not bear out that the ordinary citizen will not benefit.It is a heck of a lot more than defending American industry. and it darn well should be.The USA been leaking money at the rate of 566+ billion dollars a year. This must be reversed or the USA will become a 3rd world country .. just how close are we to getting into the situation GREECE is in.... if this is not corrected the USA will continue to get deeper in debt.I guess they can just keep passing the DEBT buck down the line to the next generation...You simply can not raise the bar for everyone while your country is becoming poorer... you can only borrow so much... how much is too much... do we want to find out ... is the USA TO BIG TO FAIL???.

author: GeorgeOfTheJungle
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 10:22:22 pm
content: In short, bussinesses and their respective countries and citizens are finally beginning to realize that offshoring in the long term was a footgun. Good.

author: apis
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 10:24:23 pm
content: Quote from: wraper on June 25, 2018, 02:37:00 pmYeah, you have to stand up to the bullies or you will just keep getting beaten over and over again.Trump wanted a trade war and now he got one. And like all wars there aren't any winners. Some loose more than others though, and it will probably be trump and his supporters on the bottom since he just pissed of just about everyone else in the world.Trump probably doesn't care though, he is just putting on a show for the home audience: his goal is to be re-elected. He has shown repeatedly he doesn't care about anything else but his ego.

author: GeorgeOfTheJungle
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 10:34:08 pm
content: A message to the europeans and other non-US citizens in this thread: be respectful, remember that half (+1?) the US voted for Trump. In their defence, the alternative wasn't any better. It happens all the time, and not only in the US! The French once voted Mitterrand, the UK the one eyed fool and Blair, Spain Zapatero, etc, etc, etc.

author: 1audio
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 10:55:02 pm
content: Actually Trump won through an unfortunate anachronism.Still there are no winners in a trade war or a real war, just losers of different magnatude.Sent from my LG-H830 using Tapatalk

author: apis
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 10:58:41 pm
content: Quote from: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 25, 2018, 10:34:08 pmHe actually lost the popular vote:Trump: 62,984,828Hillary: 65,853,514

author: GeorgeOfTheJungle
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 11:04:16 pm
content: You made the rules!Edit: They.

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 11:07:48 pm
content: Quote from: apis on June 25, 2018, 10:58:41 pmThankfully there is a system in the USA that prevents high turnouts from one state to override the will of those in the rest of the states or states with lower voter turnout ... I for one am glad California and New York do not dictate who is elected. but hey, who cares about the details right?

author: CopperCone
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 11:08:40 pm
content: Quote from: XynxNet on June 25, 2018, 08:56:34 pmare you saying poor ass China has a easier time keeping information they steal from the Russians then America does? They need to steal it from America, china prob just sells whatever to Russia.Also its unlikely the USA will benefit much from like knowing how European tactical plans, military deployments and strategies look like as Russia would, who is actively seeking to expand their political influence? The USA is interested in keeping Europe stable to contain Russia.China benefits keeping secrets from the USA, Europe not so much. Leak about Europe to America = economic abuse, Leak from Europe to Russia = possible land invasion like Ukraine, to me its pretty obvious which is the lesser of two evils. I can't see it being politically kosher for the USA to do anything to Europe for at least 40 years.

author: IanB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 11:36:28 pm
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 25, 2018, 10:02:26 pmThis is called offshoring. Corporations have been sending work overseas to lower costs and increase profits with the full support of government and Congress. A "leak" implies an unintended loss. This was not unintended, it was fully by design.There will be no meaningful change to the prevailing policies in this area while either of the two main political parties are in office. The battle, if ever there was a battle, has long been lost. The public finances of the USA may be in deficit, but the major banks and corporations that control the economy and the government are continuing to make huge profits and are not suffering at all.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 11:42:50 pm
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 25, 2018, 11:07:48 pmOfftopic: IMHO this system isn't fair. In a true democracy every vote should have the same weight. But then again in a true democracy there isn't one person or one party having all the power. It is no surprise the USA kept the Brittish 'democratic' system because it very much helps the rich and powerful to stay that way while giving the sheeple the fuzzy feeling they have something to say. The USA seems to be moving from the left to the right instead of forward.

author: GeorgeOfTheJungle
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 11:44:05 pm
content: I don't think a third (political) party would fix that either, unfortunately. In other countries there are more than two that rule, and it's the same thing.

author: apis
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 11:47:08 pm
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 25, 2018, 11:07:48 pmThat's like saying "I like it because I benefit from it right now". Imho, the only correct way to do it isone man one vote.

author: apis
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 25, 2018, 11:51:55 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on June 25, 2018, 11:49:03 pm“Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.”

author: T3sl4co1l
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 12:00:28 am
content: Quote from: nctnico on June 25, 2018, 11:42:50 pmA true democracy is a terrible idea.Have youtalkedwith the average citizen?Spending some time on a democratic platform like Reddit or Imgur may provide much needed perspective.QuoteParties arise naturally, because power naturally concentrates. There's never been such a thing as "democratic anarchism" (give or take if that's a reasonable description of what you're getting at). And there never can be.Quote Constitutional background may be a valuable study, even among those in parliamentary systems (which seem to do well enough, mind -- there's at least a few ways to construct a reasonably workable representative system, of which the USA and a parliament are two examples.)The US Constitution is based on aNative American accord, one that arose naturally among their own power structures, and which led to great stability in what is now the midwest -- a huge area, especially for diverse cultures that didn't have pack animals or the wheel! "The House" was originally a literal house, of "long house" style construction, where all chiefs from member tribes gathered to share their opinions. The executive was originally one particularly powerful tribe, consequently given certain privilege over the others, but the others also had collective veto power over the executive.The founders studied this system (among much other history), and thought well enough of it to give it a try. As a system of government, you can reasonably call it a still-ongoing experiment.Tim

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 12:03:47 am
content: Quote from: 1audio on June 25, 2018, 10:55:02 pmYes, there are certainly losers, and the USA has been loosing at trade for the past 43 years consecutively... yes 43 years of a negative trade balance!in fact the slide began before that, and can be traced back to the post WWII era.i would point you to this graph to depict us tariff rates and the slide of the trade imbalance.now let us compare that post wwII debt ... its an interesting comparison.. isn't it.sorry these charts don't end at the same dates... just found something quick to illustrate the point

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 12:07:29 am
content: Quote from: nctnico on June 25, 2018, 11:42:50 pmthat would work, if everyone voted.

author: Nusa
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 12:18:37 am
content: Quote from: Rick Law on June 25, 2018, 08:32:42 pmThat doesn't mean it actually is a security issue, no matter what Trump says it is. Trump pretty much HAS to claim national security to use the authority Congress gave the President over 50 years ago to invoke tariffs. The alternative would be to ask Congress to invoke a tariff, and you know how likely that is to happen.Why did they do that? Because there was quite a history of Congress being incompetent to manage tariffs in concert with foreign policy, never mind in a timely fashion. However, Congress can also take that power back, in the event Congress can agree the current President is even more incompetent than they are in this case.

author: donotdespisethesnake
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 06:03:13 am
content: Quote from: apis on June 25, 2018, 10:24:23 pmI think you are right, while everyone is focussing on the merits of tariffs and free trade, all of that is irrelevant to Trump. Trump is the Crisis President, everything he does contributes to the Donald Trump TV Reality Show. Trumps worlds is a fiction, a fantasy. Possibly he believes it himself, his supporters have followed him into his fantasy world. Want to keep out illegals? Build a wall!His MO is the same as other populist leaders, who promised the people a fantasy world and the people willing followed. That ended badly.Trump is best ignored, he thrives on attention. The real question is what happens after Trump, and whether US politics can be repaired or if it is divided forever. I would not be at all surprised if respective supporters start shooting at each other. Then the US is inches away from another civil war. There are many not happy with the result of the first, and would not mind a "do over".However, Trump supporters are right about one thing. World domination will eventually cede to China, that seems inevitable.

author: wilhelm
author_rank: Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 06:16:27 am
content: Harley-Davidson is moving some production to EU.

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 06:33:35 am
content: Quote from: Nusa on June 26, 2018, 12:18:37 amWell, the election in 2016 empowered Trump to make that decision for the USA. When he as the Commander In Chief made the decision that this is a national security issue, then it is.Congress of course can disagree by passing a law and override the presumed veto by the President, then, the people would have effectively told him he is wrong. If and when such a law is passed, he will then be compelled to modify his views on the matter and acts accordingly. Until such time, individual citizens, congressman(s), and senator(s) can disagree with his decision but that would just be an opinion and not a national policy.His statement that "we should be able to make all the things we need for national defense" could be a bridge too far. (Quote is not verbatim but just what I can recall from his speeches on streamed news). We are expecting our allies to buy the equipment we make - up to and including stuff like the billion dollar turkey (aka the F35). It is a hard pill for our allies to swallow: that we say we must retain theabilityto make everything ourselves. I am glad this is not a conundrum for me to solve - I've hired a guy to solve that and that guy is the fellow we called Mr. President.

author: Zero999
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 07:24:02 am
content: Quote from: apis on June 25, 2018, 10:24:23 pmNot in this case, because even if the EU doesn't retaliate, the US still loses.

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 08:02:49 am
content: Quote from: Hero999 on June 26, 2018, 07:24:02 amLoses or not, EU will loose it's face if won't take retaliatory measures. If everyone knows, that you don't f...ck with us, likely they won't even try. If they see that such crap will pass, further attempts to come.

author: CatalinaWOW
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 12:28:33 pm
content: Quote from: wraper on June 26, 2018, 08:02:49 amYou are presuming a thoughtful, rational approach to trade policy. What leads you to expect that?

author: madires
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 01:17:32 pm
content: What bothers me isn't just this silly trade war, it's also the current situation of politics (right-wing, nationalist, populist). This resembles a period we had about 100 years ago. Hopefully we don't make the same mistakes again and repeat history.

author: ebastler
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 03:21:47 pm
content: Quote from: wilhelm on June 26, 2018, 06:16:27 amNot quite; but they are moving it outside of the US, so the products won't incur tariffs when imported into Europe. And, believe it or not, that does annoy Trump enough to send out several angry tweets about Harley Davidson.The new European tariffs are obviously symbolic in nature -- aimed specifically at goods which are "as American as apple pie", and at goods which are produced in the districts of Trump supporters. If I recall correctly, the EU politicians even stated that, when they first started dicussing retaliation tariffs a couple of months ago.Very limited effect on European consumers and industry; but it seems to send the right message to Trump. Works for me.

author: CJay
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 03:24:30 pm
content: Quote from: madires on June 26, 2018, 01:17:32 pmMe too, there are some glaring parallels.

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 04:10:31 pm
content: Quote from: madires on June 26, 2018, 01:17:32 pmoh, the 1920's you mean back when the USA had very little national debt, and when the was very profitable and people themselves were doing well in the USA...think they called those times the roaring twenties. That would be such a mistakewhy would we cant prosperity!AHHHH... i know ... it doesn't fit the left wing agenda. In order for the left wing to advance their agenda, they need to make the populace dependent on the government. people, not dependent on the government typically rejects left-wing ideologies.on Tariffs in general, they serve a positive purpose.Tarrifs help your country keeps its individual economy going, and seeks imports for items that are not practically produced inside their own borders, and exports those items that are impractical to produce in the countries they export to. in the case of the usa, post-WWII there was a need for the USA help prop up and rebuild the economies around the world, tariffs got in the way of that, but, now, those days are long gone. time for the USA to rebuild itself!Another outcome of the lack of tariffs is it opens countries up to devastating their businesses where products and services can be produced in the country and then puts them at a national security risk in not being able to produce those products and services in a national crisis when trade abruptly breaks down between two countries.I believe its a misconception that some people think any business needs to compete on the global market, well, no truly it does not. It is good if they can, and especially if it's not at the cost of devastating the industries globally.It doesn't serve the interests of the business or country if the goods or services cannot be produced in the country, it does serve the ideology of a one world government structure by forcing a global economy and therefore making countries totally reliant on each other, and needing to bend to the will of global control or centralized control of that trade. we can see some of this with the WTO for example.Some people call tariffs protectionism as if that's a bad thing.... its not a bad thing, its a damn good thing for all economies. by not having tariffs there is pressure to continually depress the value of peoples work, and the value of goods and services, and we are all being dragged down ... whats the point in that. oh I know, we're back to the left wing agenda again where a people dependent on government are open to left-wing ideologies....Don't be manipulated...look at whats going on....

author: CJay
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 05:49:01 pm
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 26, 2018, 04:10:31 pmBwahahaha yeah, of course.And the earth is flat too?Made in only six days by a sky fairy some six thousand years ago and dinosaurs walked the earth alongside man, in fact the Flintstones was a documentary series and not an entertainment cartoon?Seriously, if you use the phrase 'keft wing agenda' you mark yourself out as a conspiracy theorist with woefully poor grasp on reality, your wonderful electoral system threw into power a man who had a lower total share of the vote, who has seriously dubious links to Russia, seems only to be interested in grandstanding and enriching himself and his cronies and is so childishly petty he's demeaned the office you're all supposed to respect to the point of ridicule by attacking, illegally, a tiny restaurant that chose not to serve a member of his staff.MAGA eh...

author: GeorgeOfTheJungle
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 05:53:44 pm
content: You say that as if the EU wasn't a nest of communist^W leftist snakes... the reborn of the politbureau.

author: apis
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 06:27:19 pm
content: Quote from: madires on June 26, 2018, 01:17:32 pmEspecially since they appear to have Putin backing them up. It's not just Trump, Russian government banks are sponsoring Le Pen in France for example, and probably all those other populist parties that are popping up like mushrooms around Europe at the moment. If your goal is to divide and conquer, then sponsoring nationalist populist idiots among your targets seems like a clever strategy. Seems pretty successful too, just look at Brexit. Putin might not have to worry about competition from EU (or USA, lol) a decade from now if things continue like this. Once EU is gone, manipulating a bunch of small countries bickering among themselves will be piece of cake for a spy master like Putin.

author: CJay
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 06:48:05 pm
content: I wish we could stop looking at Brexit, in all honesty I would have got behind leaving if there were proveable benefits but there just aren't, we're two years down the line and every promise made by the leave bunch have been proven to be promises of unicorns and fairies but not the unicorns we promised you last week...Nothing I have seen has done anything other than made me a more fervent advocate for remain.

author: Nusa
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 06:53:15 pm
content: Note that political catchphrases and slang terms usually don't translate well internationally, in either direction. Even in cases where the words are familiar to both countries, they often refer to entirely different groups of people based the persons point of reference.This isn't really the best forum for political opinions in any case.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 07:24:27 pm
content: Quote from: apis on June 26, 2018, 06:27:19 pmEverything is converging. Effects from Russification coming back to haunt Europe. Effects of guest labourers and ex-colonials combined with low native birthrates in north-western Europe, with Erdogan preaching for the largest group among them to be a third column. Effects of abruptly ending of colonialism and the human rights frenzy post WW2.Putin has a lot to work with, the "spymaster" isn't exactly subtle, their level of sophistication and influence compared to the US is pathetic.

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 07:30:00 pm
content: Quote from: CJay on June 26, 2018, 05:49:01 pmso now were to just pretend there are no political parties, and that those parties are not advancing their political views. ... and you say I have a poor grasp on realityQuote from: CJay on June 26, 2018, 05:49:01 pmYou would be embarrassed at that statement if you understood the voting system in the USA.Quote from: CJay on June 26, 2018, 05:49:01 pmnow, who is talking conspiracy theoriesQuote from: CJay on June 26, 2018, 05:49:01 pmWell, perhaps where you are from, you are used to the media manufacturing issues/news when the issues have existed through many administrations, just to turn underinformed people against people in the current administration, or, give those with anti-administration sentiments fuel to enrage them. many do see through all this though and see it for what it is. and I am glad that there not just laying down and taking it. it sounds like you would prefer that. This is less of a problem in most of the eu as there are fake news laws

author: CJay
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 07:48:28 pm
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 26, 2018, 07:30:00 pmNope, I have a fine grasp on reality, anyone using 'left wing agenda' or 'right wing agenda' as an arguing point is usually a swivel eyed loon.Quote from: innkeeper on June 26, 2018, 07:30:00 pmI understand the electoral college system just fine, he still got fewer total votes than Clinton in the popular vote but your system is a relic of a bygone time and is skewed in a way that makes it possible to gain more of the overall vote but still lose, essentially your vote may not be worth as much as one from a different area.Quote from: innkeeper on June 26, 2018, 07:30:00 pmOh, those very public comments that he made on social media about a small restaurant weren't made by him then? The comments that are, by your own laws, a serious breach of ethics and illegal?It was all fake news, I understand totally, it's me that's deluded.I notice you didn't deny the Russia links...Next you'll be telling me Tommy Robinson should be free?

author: GeorgeOfTheJungle
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 07:57:08 pm
content: Tommy Robinson should be free.

author: CJay
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 08:01:20 pm
content: Quote from: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 26, 2018, 07:57:08 pmAnd all the Nazis who marched to support him agree with you that the serial criminal Stephen Yaxley Lennon should be free to assault another police officer, to commit fraud and breach the terms of his suspended sentence by committing exactly the same offence again.Fin, I've had enough of this now, we're descending into far right bullshit and it's not worth arguing with trolls.

author: GeorgeOfTheJungle
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 08:15:15 pm
content: Did he attack anybody? Wasn't he merely reporting just like the BBC and others?

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 08:16:39 pm
content: not sure what any of this has to do with tariffs...Tariffs, if used to protect a countries business products and services, are a good thing and helps everyone.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 08:22:49 pm
content: Ignoring the 3 months for filming inside the court, from the perspective of a more liberal nation like the US or the Netherlands Tommy Robinson shouldn't be in jail. Of course we don't have a jury system, but the US does.

author: Nusa
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 26, 2018, 11:06:40 pm
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 26, 2018, 08:16:39 pmSounds like you're in favor of both the US and EU tariffs, then. Helps everyone, after all! Using the dictionary definition of "everyone" of course, not the Trump definition of "me".

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 02:20:04 am
content: yes. I pretty much outlined the details why in graph form earlier too.

author: Nusa
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 02:37:20 am
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 27, 2018, 02:20:04 amWithout agreeing or disagreeing, I'll note those charts were clearly aimed at "everyone" = USA, not "everyone" = WORLD

author: hobbyfans
author_rank: Newbie
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 03:10:03 am
content: So I must place orders now to save a little cash?

author: Bud
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 05:04:31 am
content: Quote from: CJay on June 26, 2018, 08:01:20 pmNot surprisingly, the Godwin's law is approaching this thread.

author: Tomorokoshi
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 05:15:18 am
content: Quote from: Bud on June 27, 2018, 05:04:31 amFrom:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_lawQuote

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 06:00:39 am
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 26, 2018, 12:03:47 amIt would be interesting to find out where most of the money has been spend on. My guess is that most of the debt is caused by buying weapons.

author: stj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 10:50:39 am
content: i was told that in the u.s. manufacturers must count items as they are made and pay tax on them in expectation of sales.if that's true then the u.s. is being sabotaged from within!!

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 11:07:36 am
content: Quote from: nctnico on June 27, 2018, 06:00:39 amThey mostly don't buy their weapons offshore, so not really. It started with oil, then an avalanching flood of items from the rest of the world.

author: Tepe
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 11:37:09 am
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 26, 2018, 04:10:31 pmRemember how the 1920's ended.

author: Zero999
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 12:27:30 pm
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 26, 2018, 04:10:31 pmHe was referring to the nationalist policies in many European nations at the time, which the current US government is drawing inspiration from.QuoteEveryone has been dependent on the government, to some degree or another for a long time. Don't like it? Go and live in a country without a strong government: no laws or taxes to worry about! Just don't complain when so can't find a job, so have to be self-sufficient and make sure you have enough weapons to defend your family against the local savages.QuoteClearly not. They make it harder for the US to cooperate with other nations. If you want to live somewhere which relies very little on foreign trade, then move to North Korea.QuoteThat's why it's good to be friendly with more than one country. If something goes wrong with the relationship with one country and they will not trade, then there's always somewhere else to go to. The current US government just pissed off most of the world, which is not sensible.QuoteYes, it's possible to close off to the world and just have one internal market, but it's not good for economic growth. Various countries have tried this in the past and have had to reverse the policy or fall behind the rest of the world.QuoteHistory has shown otherwise. Tariffs are just another tax and you right wingers don't like those. Would you be happy to buy a product, made in the US, at three times the cost of the same thing made in China? Also note that moving production back to the US, wouldn't save many jobs, since manufactures will just rely more on automation.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 12:31:23 pm
content: The right wing is generally nationalist, so autarky is valued ... although it's not inherently right wing.

author: MT
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 12:42:12 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on June 25, 2018, 11:49:03 pmWe dont know the future in 100 years, and yes political threads have tendency to freak out, but if i was a american citizen i would, before puking billion numbers on Trumps trade war etc, have a serious thought on where the 21 Trillion dollars went? (with a silent finger pointing at the general direction of the Pentagon) im happy in not a american citizen.

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 06:42:43 pm
content: @hero999OK I'll bite...whats your formula for reversing the trade deficit the USA has been suffering with over the last 43+ years since the reduction or elimination of tariffs for goods and services coming into the USA.In my view, the continual bleeding off countries net worth from trade deficit cannot be sustained forever, and as you can see in the graph on post #53.....obviously, you don't believe tariffs I can respect that for sure...I do believe in tariffs as they worked well in the past.So, what is the solution to the problem?

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 07:31:47 pm
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 26, 2018, 04:10:31 pmTariff could actually may improve technology if used wisely.Imagine if USA had heavy tariff on consumer electronics 20 years ago enough to keep consumer electronics manufacturing state-side, competition within the USA will drive development in manufacturing technology to drive down cost to compete within the USA as well as globally.That may seem theoretical, but take a look at farming, automation greatly reduced production cost within the EU making farming still viable. EU tariff for agricultural products (pre-current trade war around the corner) average is around 30% and US tariff is around 10%. Without that, EU's farming may long since moved to the Americas (USA, Brazil, Argentina, etc.) or elsewhere. Instead, EU's farming is still viable, EU's automation and robotics likely benefitedinstead of becoming obsolete - and all these happens without the need of importing labor to do "jobs that Europeans wouldn't do."References/sources: Economic Research Service, USDA publication: "U.S. and EU Farm Policy—How Similar?"The 30% average is from reading the bar graph on page 17, figure 1B "U.S., EU average agricultural tariffs, megatariffs". Average (as far as the resolution a bar graph goes) look like 10 v 30 for the average tariff, and around 20 v 140 for mega-tariff.https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/40408/30643_wrs0404c_002.pdf Article from ArgiTech Tomorrow, "Automating Agriculture: How Automation and Robotics Have Taken to the Fields", 2018"...Jonathan Wilkins, marketing director atobsoleteindustrial parts supplier, EU Automation, explains how automation is benefiting the farming industry...fitness trackers for cows is a blossoming industry...market revenue of$2,927 million in 2016, but isexpected to rocket to $11,050 millionin 2023. But why isautomation spilling out of the automotive, aerospace and electronic sectors and into the agriculturalmarket?..."[RL: emphasis added to quote]https://www.agritechtomorrow.com/article/2018/02/automating-agriculture-how-automation-and-robotics-have-taken-to-the-fields/10511

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 09:40:06 pm
content: Quote from: MT on June 27, 2018, 12:42:12 pmdefense of other nations mostly, and hence the ongoing changes in that policy in this administration. but that's getting into politics again.so easy to get off track on the tariff discussion, though, somewhat related when it comes to debt

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 09:55:12 pm
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 27, 2018, 06:42:43 pmMake stuff which is worth more. IOW: educate the people and make them do higher qualified work. Judging from what I see on TV and read on news websites a large part of the population isn't participating efficiently in producing something which can be sold for a lot of money.

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 11:04:40 pm
content: Quote from: nctnico on June 27, 2018, 09:55:12 pmyou side stepped the issue entirely, or you are intentionally blind to the issues..let's take China as an example.. because its a nice contrast that's easy to highlight.ok, so how does one offer competing products those educated people produce when your competing country in the market has a lower standard of living for their citizens, they do not adhere to the same working standards and safety as your country, doesn't the same regulations for environmental protection as your country and manipulates their currency, all adding up to being able to produce goods and services cheaper then you can in your country. to compound the issue they take your countries business intellectual property for innovations within your country to produce them in their country without the R and D cost. Lastly, they manipulate their currency to make their goods cheaper on the world market.Now they have an unfair advantage and they can import goods and services into your country far cheaper then they can be produced in your country, and even if you produced something on par price wise, their trade practices prevent you from marketing it within their borders, unless its an item they cant produce right away and can use it to then make more products to import into your country.now what...

author: IanB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 27, 2018, 11:27:36 pm
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 27, 2018, 11:04:40 pmI think you are omitting a very important factor here. "China" did not do any of this, the USA did it. It was U.S. based companies that actively went to China and paid local companies to set up manufacturing facilities there. It was U.S. based companies that provided the IP and technical specifications so that the local companies could produce the goods the U.S. companies wanted made. And it was the U.S. companies that imported these goods back into the USA with effect of displacing domestic goods from the market. If you go around Walmart and trace the origin of all the items "Made in China", you will find they are being imported and sold by U.S. corporations with increased profits from lower costs and higher margins going to U.S. stock holders.To address the root causes of this state of affairs would require structural changes to both import tariffs and corporate taxation. Since this would be inconvenient for the U.S. corporations who benefit, and which coincidentally also lobby and influence the government, it has not happened and will not happen until elected representatives start to represent the people who elect them instead of the corporations who pay them.For this reason, the current noise about tariffs is just that: noise. Whatever is happening now is just a minor disturbance in the status quo that will not last and will soon be reversed and forgotten about.

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 12:16:33 am
content: @IanBi agree, It is totaly is the USA's own fault for it and i did say something similar in an earlier.As far as if its just noise.. time will tell.

author: Zero999
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 08:03:32 am
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 27, 2018, 06:42:43 pmThere's no magic formula, because there's no problem with the trade deficit, which is a largely positive thing for the US. As mentioned above, companies such as Wallmart, who own the IP, get their produces made in China, in their factories, at a low cost and the profits go back to their shareholders.Quote from: Rick Law on June 27, 2018, 07:31:47 pmThat sounds good in theory, but electronics are different to farming.Suppose a tariff is imposed on consumer electronics? Companies will get round that by importing nearly complete items and finishing them off an automated factory, in the US.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 12:42:58 pm
content: Quote from: Tepe on June 27, 2018, 11:37:09 amBut that was under a gold standard, unfortunately much of Europe has put itself under a currency which can only act in two ways ... pulling it towards a fiscal union or ending up as a yoke exactly as destructive as the gold standard.Then again, that's what it was designed to do.

author: schmitt trigger
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 01:35:46 pm
content: Since this is an electronics forum, I'll limit my discussion to electronics....Unfortunately, electronics manufacturing, at the component and board level, is very polluting. And use lots of water which becomes a type of wastewater which cannot be treated with the same facilities which treat regular organic wastewater.Countries with lax environmental regulations will therefore attract such industries. Such as China.A good example of this trend are the rare earths, of which neodymium is perhaps the most important and strategic. Nowhere this pollution is as stark as in the city of Baotou:http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20150402-the-worst-place-on-earth

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 01:42:07 pm
content: @hero999your still not offering any actionable plan to resolve the situation. I still maintain that tariffs are the solution.just saying that something that worked for us up until WWII for the USA will not work today is weak position to take. Pointing blame that it is corporations fault, and doesn't offer any solutions, only points out the flaws in a capitalist society that, if left unchecked, can be taken advantage of. You darn well know that individuals and corporations will do what is in their immediate economic interest and will not individually steer countries economic policy in the right direction and look out for their countries economic future. that what we look to the governance of a country for.so I pose the question again to you.if tariffs are not the answer to the situation, what is?

author: MT
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 01:48:12 pm
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 27, 2018, 09:40:06 pmIn your dreams!QuoteMilitary industrial complex tariff'ed, how convenient and decent thing to do. Everything is a political decision even tariffs.

author: GeorgeOfTheJungle
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 02:48:02 pm
content: Quote from: MT on June 28, 2018, 01:48:12 pmhttp://google.com/search?q=democracy+by+the+tons+meme&tbm=isch

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 03:03:43 pm
content: Quote from: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 28, 2018, 02:48:02 pmit wasn't so funny back in WWII when no one was there to help stop the invasion fo Poland now was it.

author: Zero999
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 03:45:01 pm
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 28, 2018, 01:42:07 pmI repeat, there is no solution to a problem, which doesn't exist. Since China has opened up, the US economy has been booming, as a result of using China as a cheap manufacturing resource and will continue to do so. Tariffs only harm the US economy, by making it more difficult to import goods and retaliatory action only makes things worse.

author: GeorgeOfTheJungle
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 03:54:59 pm
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 28, 2018, 03:03:43 pmLOL, US citizens and their partial view of the rest of the world strikes again... I gather that maybe 8..9 out of 10 polish would have preferred the german "occupation" rather than what the allies left them with: Yalta was a betrayal. IOW: thank you for nothing. (I'm not polish)

author: IanB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 04:10:27 pm
content: Quote from: Hero999 on June 28, 2018, 03:45:01 pmAt a superficial level this may be true. However, if we look at the social dimension there may indeed be a problem. For example, for whom has the economy been booming, and who has been benefiting from all the money flowing around? If you look at that, you may find it is the 1% who have experienced a booming economy, and the 99% who have experienced a decline in income, jobs and living standards.

author: stj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 05:31:21 pm
content: just remember the rich have a trick they used many times:whenever unemployment gets too high - and it's over 40% right now,they use some bullshit excuse to start a war and then draft all the unemployed and send them to get killed.

author: Zero999
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 06:22:17 pm
content: Quote from: IanB on June 28, 2018, 04:10:27 pmHow is that linked to the trade deficit with China? The US will not get its manufacturing jobs back. The pattern of offshoring manufacturing to China, has been repeated, all over the developed world.The problems you've highlighted: booming economy, reduced living standards for the many, have other causes: underinvestment in education and high value sectors such as engineering and over-reliance on welfare.Quote from: stj on June 28, 2018, 05:31:21 pmWhere is unemployment 40%? Nowhere in the EU, is that bad.

author: stj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 06:24:55 pm
content: the u.s.the u.k. is 20-30, i could explain all the tricks to mess with the official numbers if needed.

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 06:44:27 pm
content: Quote from: Hero999 on June 28, 2018, 08:03:32 amOne can base tariff on % content or % value-add instead of basing on completed products. That would stop the "assembled in XXX" but with content largely from YYY.In my view, with exception to national security type stuff, tariff is not a solution for long term - but a short term thing to dampen abrupt changes. This gives local economy to adjust rather than sudden death. The local economy must have the knowledge and the grit (etc. etc.) to keep itself growing to stay at current or better level of living standard.What you said aboutdoing just the finishing locallycan work out as bad for farms. The farm technology improvement from the article I linked was mainly in AI and Robotics application. There is nothing there supporting the idea that those would be mainly "home grown" stuff - it may be, but may be not.Germany sold Kuka (its largest Robotic manufacturer) to China already. Kuka’s facilities in Shanghai is being expanded. Following that kinds of event flow, EU farming may survive by only the veggie or meat grown on EU soil, but everything else is foreign (own or done). This in my view would be an even-worst outcome. Thehigh value part (AI/Robotics) are gone leaving only the low value grass/plant growinglocally. This would the "cow assembled in the EU."Continuing on with farming to illustrate my point and note that this isnot specific to Germanyor farming or electronics. The same applies to different industry and different nations.What work is being done in Germany to keep itself in play with high-tech manufacturing and AI technology? I don't know. If not, Germany will hollow itself out. There isn't many high-tech stuff that Germany can export to China that China cannot make in five years. So it must use this duration to "re-engineer itself" to find another mean of creating value. As we trade, tariff or not, we must do enough to support the live style we desire.

author: IanB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 07:20:53 pm
content: Quote from: Hero999 on June 28, 2018, 06:22:17 pmThis has an internal contradiction, though. If there is a booming economy, why isn't there money to invest in education and high value sectors? The answer seems to be that the wealthy oligarchs do not want people to be educated, and do not want high value sectors to exist in the USA. And the reason for that seems to be that such things do not fit into their plans for making money...

author: BravoV
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 07:47:12 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on June 28, 2018, 07:29:09 pmIts cultural difference and what you said above is norm, and its typical way of life in Asia family, you can't expect avg. Americans to understand this, let alone to think the idea about this.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 07:55:53 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on June 28, 2018, 07:29:09 pmActually, apparently, they (or the country as a whole) do ...The US spends per child on Education U.S.: $58,464Whereas China spends per child on Education China: $42,892But I admitthe former, UK {and now district of China}, Hong Kong spends per child on Education Hong Kong: $132,161Source:http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/29/pf/education-costs-hong-kong-tuition/index.html

author: Bassman59
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 08:19:02 pm
content: Quote from: IanB on June 28, 2018, 07:20:53 pmThe problem is how we define "the economy." Too often, when you read a story about the "booming economy," what they're really talking about is the financial markets and corporate earnings. And yes, by all measures, that economy is booming.But there is also the real economy, that of people who work for wages and use that income to pay rent/mortgage and utilities and buy food and other products in a mostly-local market. This economy isn't booming, it is stagnant, and has been for some time. Wages haven't increased as one would expect with a tightening labor market. People are working more than one part-time job rather than one full-time job in order to make ends meet. And so on.Recall the recent tax giveaways to corporations, and also the changes where corporations were able to bring home overseas money and not have it taxed severely. The talking points were that the money would, yes, trickle down to workers. But, as was predicted, that didn't happen, and instead the windfall was used for stock buybacks/So the reason "there isn't money to invest in education and high-value sectors" is simple. The people who have the money to make those investments don't want to. They don't need to -- again, even with that tightening labor market, wages aren't increasing which means the need to invest in people isn't (according to the investor class) necessary.Of course how a consumer-based economy is supposed to function when the consumers cannot afford to consume remains a mystery.

author: mtdoc
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 08:36:09 pm
content: Quote from: Bassman59 on June 28, 2018, 08:19:02 pmThe problem is one of priorities. The people who make the decisions about where tax dollars are spent (congress) have other priorities. Congress casts the votes but the real power lies with the corporations who stand to benefit (and own most of the politicians).The recent Senate approved increase in military spending alone is enough to provide free public college educationThe general public do not agree with these priorities BTW.

author: IanB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 09:04:51 pm
content: Quote from: mtdoc on June 28, 2018, 08:36:09 pmBut sadly, the general public do not express those sentiments effectively enough when they vote...(It reminds me of the story where the trees in the forest kept voting for the axe--because the axe was made of wood they thought it was one of them.)

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 09:49:38 pm
content: Quote from: mtdoc on June 28, 2018, 08:36:09 pmFWIW free education in US could be implemented for the money currently spent. State backed student loans might seem like a good thing, but in reality because of that education cost became so ridiculously inflated that barely anyone can afford it without a loan. Same goes for housing, if there were no easy loans, people could afford it without taking any loans which they need to pay back for decades. Say from my experience with my sister who lives in UK. In 2013 she heard that government will be backing loans for young families, so they can take mortgage even if they cannot save for like 20% deposit. She asked me to loan her like 15k EUR+ ASAP. Then she hurriedly bought a house in mortgage. And like half a year later, as soon as that crap was implemented, prices skyrocketed. House which she bought, now a few years later would cost twice as much.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help_to_Buy

author: Zero999
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 10:04:28 pm
content: Quote from: Rick Law on June 28, 2018, 06:44:27 pmAgain, that's fine in theory, but proving the percentage add-on value is another matter. The company could say: the hardware is dirt cheap, so that's imported from China, with a very low tariff, then in a factory in the US, a robot loads the valuable firmware, which is most of the product's value and now it's actually worth something or that unbranded meter is worth very little, slap a Fluke label on it and now it's worth something: branding is everything.Is it really that important to protect manufacturing? Margins are tight and it's not that profitable, compared to design and branding. All tariffs would do is push prices up, making consumer electronics more expensive, for the US consumer. Very few extra jobs will be gained and some could be lost, due to the impacts of retaliatory action.Quote from: stj on June 28, 2018, 06:24:55 pmWhere did you get those figures from? I agree that the government may manipulate the official statistics but your figures of, 20% to 30% unemployment in the UK, are total bollocks. A simple straw poll of the people I know, confirms that unemployment is much lower than this and even though the sample size is too small to be valid, it's still more meaningful than making numbers up.Quote from: IanB on June 28, 2018, 07:20:53 pmThere are plenty of other countries who have a massive trade deficit with China, yet have a more even wealth distribution than the US. Your government is lying to you, when they say the US trade deficit with China is to blame for poverty!

author: wraper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 10:09:38 pm
content: Quote from: Hero999 on June 28, 2018, 10:04:28 pmOfficial unemployment rate in UK is 4.1%. If you count children and retired, then I guess you could get 30%.

author: IanB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 28, 2018, 11:41:37 pm
content: Quote from: Hero999 on June 28, 2018, 10:04:28 pmI think that's all you need to say. No qualifier neededOf course politicians lie. That's what they do.

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 01:03:13 am
content: Quote from: Marco on June 24, 2018, 11:48:20 pmThe EU targets agriculture and industries that can predominantly found in red states. In short, they're going after Trump supporters. Just because it looks random to you doesn't mean it actually is.

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 01:24:16 am
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 26, 2018, 12:03:47 amWhat exactly do you think a negative trade balance is? People somehow seem to think that the "negative" part denotes something bad and that's certainly how Trump seems to picture it, but it's just a metric. It's like saying a negative voltage is bad. Having a negative trade balance does not mean "losing at trade". From Wikipedia: "The notion that bilateral trade deficits are bad in and of themselves is overwhelmingly rejected by trade experts and economists."Economists say as much. The US had a stellar trade surplus during The Great Depression, for example. Either Trump is using it as a ploy and banks on people not understanding the concept, or doesn't understand the concept himself. It can't be used as a metric for "winning" or "losing" in the way it's used now.

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 01:38:41 am
content: Quote from: wraper on June 28, 2018, 09:49:38 pmI've had almost this exact discussion recently with someone in the banking world. Lending money to everyone just leads people to compete for the same resources, except now with a crippling debt attached. It's an arms race and as always the house, or the arms dealer always wins.

author: stj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 02:28:43 am
content: @wraper:try adding the long term unemployed who are on schemes and not listed,and the young who are forced into part-time "training" and not listed.then add the people who cant claim benefits for months because they where previously registered as "self employed" - something a lot of employment agency's make people do.

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 02:37:32 am
content: Quote from: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 28, 2018, 03:54:59 pmWWII started with the invasion of Poland

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 03:19:12 am
content: All of the countries with major trade imbalances have a significant foreign debtNegative trade imbalance rankcountryImbalance Millions USDForign Debt RankForign Debt Millions USD1United States4620001211710000002United Kingdom91420284759560003Canada555701119319000004Turkey38950264532070005India33680224532070006Brazil28990205564180007France28920556897450008Algeria2287013631390009Argentina221303536311700010Australia2168014148772000011Egypt198305767,322,600,12Mexico198102843736700013Indonesia170303133528900014Iraq12220566801000015Colombia117004512109720016Pakistan11670538298070017Oman10300882085000018South Africa98104214283300019Lebanon9488722779600020Kazakhstan829139165501000

author: IanB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 03:26:31 am
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 29, 2018, 03:19:12 amWhen do you feel more comfortable? When you have lent lots of money to other people, and you are concerned about them paying it back? Or when you have borrowed lots of money from other people, and your bank balance is swelled by all that money?

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 03:48:55 am
content: Quote from: Mr. Scram on June 29, 2018, 01:24:16 amRe:Expert opinionsNow that is a difference between here and there. Here in the EE forum, we are science and fact base. When you say V=IR or too much current will make a resister hot, those are stuff we can test and repeatable. So, EE expert opinion (unless from a fake expert) can be counted on.For stuff like economy/trade, expert opinions are just opinions. I place very little credibility on them until I know the opinion giver (and his/her body of work) well.I do know math - I know when a business buys more than it can sell, unless that changes, that business is going bust. So I found it hard to believe these expert opinions that (on an on-going basis) spending more on trade than we earn from trade can possibly be good.

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 05:18:34 am
content: Quote from: Rick Law on June 29, 2018, 03:48:55 amRe:Re:Expert opinionPeople seem to be making the most basic mistakes when it comes to economic matters. One can't compare a country to a business. Businesses can't create money. Countries can and do create money. That completely negates any simplistic in versus out comparisons. We're not just talking about printing money either, we're talking about value being created. Actual material wealth, not just numbers. The wealth of a nation can and does increase without surplus trade.It's very possible that having a trade deficit is actually good for creating wealth, causing you to accumulate more wealthy quicker. After all, if you can purchase the means for creating wealth at a much lower cost it's much more easily done.Economists aren't always agreeing and regularly wrong because it's an incredibly complicated subject with many parts interacting. Having people applying their homegrown seat of the pants logic without really understanding even the basic ingredients is bound to lead to all sorts of misconceptions.

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 05:30:50 am
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 29, 2018, 03:19:12 amIf anything, this list shows there isn't any correlation between trade deficit and international debt. Both rankings would be much more similar, while only the top two follow the predicted pattern.If that weren't enough, Russia, China and Japan all have very large positive trade balances. Those are respectively ranked number 21, 13 and 7 on the foreign debt list.Like the previous post, it seems to be random data that is presented in a way that fits the narrative.

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 06:08:05 am
content: Quote from: IanB on June 29, 2018, 03:26:31 amAssuming no leverage, definitely as a lender ... if they default I still have my productivity and no debt. In the second case if my productivity drops I'll be in indentured servitude (see Argentina).

author: Marco
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 06:20:16 am
content: Quote from: Mr. Scram on June 29, 2018, 05:18:34 amThe means for creating wealth are natural resources and human capital. The US mostly imports items high on the value chain, so that leaves human capital ... it is the beneficiary of international brain drain, attracted to the living standards artificially raised by their trade deficit (at least for the higher incomes). Brain drain might be positive for the US, but it distorts international economies.IMO universal trade balances are much better for raising all boats.

author: batteksystem
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 07:06:52 am
content: Quote from: G7PSK on June 25, 2018, 09:02:28 pmIn case of trade war escalating, these things are not completely not on table. Although since government are mostly likely the only user, they are actually hurting themselves in case those components are not replaceable.

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 07:22:27 am
content: Quote from: Marco on June 29, 2018, 06:20:16 amImporting items to provide much more valuable services can create value and wealth. If Dave can afford one US built crane and Bob can afford three foreign cranes for the same money, who's going to build bridges faster? Autarky isn't realistic, especially in a world economy.

author: Zero999
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 07:50:31 am
content: Quote from: Mr. Scram on June 29, 2018, 05:30:50 amEven if there was a correlation, between trade imbalance and national debt, it wouldn't mean it's the cause.Those figures are also misleading, because they don't take the population size into account.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 08:13:39 am
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 29, 2018, 02:37:32 amNope. Japan invaded China in 1937. The invasion of Poland was in 1939.

author: Alex Nikitin
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 09:14:57 am
content: Quote from: nctnico on June 29, 2018, 08:13:39 amAnd Genghis Khan attacked Western Xia in 1209 !CheersAlex

author: GeorgeOfTheJungle
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 09:41:43 am
content: Quote from: innkeeper on June 29, 2018, 02:37:32 amInvasion? Really? Have a look at these maps of Poland:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_evolution_of_Poland#1918And please, stop watching "The world at war", it's entertaining, but mostly just a pile of shameful british propaganda. Good for them!Many say the first shot of WWII was fired at Westerplatte, just next to the Free City of Danzig:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westerplattehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Gda%C5%84sk#Free_City_(1920–1939)Quote

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 09:43:15 am
content: Quote from: Alex Nikitin on June 29, 2018, 09:14:57 amBut that wasn't the start of the conflict we call WW2.

author: stj
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 09:57:40 am
content: germany invaded poland because poland was shielding bolshevik terrorists.it was all a setup anyway, britain had told them they would protect them if they did - and lied.poland was the trap, the bolshevik terrorists were the cheese.now the question is: will poland be stupid enough to be tricked into getting invaded to start the next war??has NATO made promises to protect poland in exchange for using it as a giant forward operating base?

author: innkeeper
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 06:59:32 pm
content: think the point is now lost in the minutia.

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 07:10:29 pm
content: Quote from: nctnico on June 29, 2018, 09:43:15 amInvasion of Poland is not the start of WW2 either. September 1939 Poland invasion merely started Britain's and France's engagements with Germany turning a border war into a regional war. Russia and the USA were at peace at the time while other regional wars were going on.- Operation Barbarossa was June 1941 which brought Russia into the war against Germany- Pearl Harbor in December 7, 1941 brought USA into the Asia regional war- Germany declared war on USA on December 11, 1941 - this joined the Asia/Europe wars into oneIf you consider the start of any of the belligerence nations starting a fight with each other as the start of WWII, Japan's invasion of China (Marco Polo Bridge incidence) would probably be it. But that was a regional war. Not until Asia and European regional wars were joined that the regional wars were thought of as different theaters of a single war - a World-War.According to Victor David Hanson (VDH): even at the time, it was not thought of as world war until late 1941. VDH is not your run-of-the-mill farmer. VDH is a Senior Fellow in classics and military history at Stanford University's Hoover Institution and chairs the working group on Military History. So I consider him an authority on the subject.You can listen to him saying that (WWII wasn't thought of a world war till late 1941) on his lecture at Hillsdale onWhy WWII Mattershere:

author: schmitt trigger
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 07:40:09 pm
content: Thanks Rick for the very interesting video.I also agree with the assessment that individual local conflagrations grew and grew until the whole world was engulfed in flames. And thus became a WW.By the same reasoning it could be argued that the Spanish Civil War was a prelude -by proxy, of WW2. Combatants that faced each other indirectly, eventually fought hand to hand.

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 11:16:25 pm
content: Quote from: Rick Law on June 29, 2018, 07:10:29 pmRe:Re:Re:Expert opinions

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 11:21:27 pm
content: Agreed. The war didn't start at the point when it met the requirements for being a world war. It started earlier so you can just as easely say that the first invasion was the start of the world war.

author: iainwhite
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 11:38:08 pm
content: Quote from: wraper on June 28, 2018, 10:09:38 pmand in the USA, it is currently about 4%

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 29, 2018, 11:55:39 pm
content: Quote from: nctnico on June 29, 2018, 11:21:27 pmIt seems some countries went down paths that would inevitably lead to war long before that actually happened. How exactly things would unfold was to be decided, but that it would happen seems inevitable.

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: June 30, 2018, 05:34:04 am
content: Quote from: Mr. Scram on June 29, 2018, 11:16:25 pmI guess you picked out my inconsistency here when I poo-poo off the expert economist's opinions on trade v deficit, but then I cited VDH as an authority on the subject of military history and went with it.You have a point there- I suppose I owe you a clarification: I compartmentalize by the type of information.With history, what happened or not is rather definitive until discovery of new evidence. Real historians should know and have analyzed most if not all known evidence. So, with "what did happened and when?", once their bonafide is established, I trust them as authorities on the subject.But, when they hypothesize "what if's" such as "what if Germany got to Stalingrad a couple of months sooner?". Expert answers to that in my view are educated opinions. I would view them the same as I view expert economist(s): I must know more about the expert or his/her body of work before I consider the opinion asreliablelikely or not.