When will UK (+other countries) not be able to buy Chinese Electronics? - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: ocset
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 07:33:58 pm
content: The British pound (+ maybe some other countries currency) is falling dramatically against the Chinese Yuan.....as the following chart shows...(Pound vs Yuan over 20 years)https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-CNYAt what point in the future, will UK no longer be able to buy Electronics products from China? (eg lighting products, toys, TVs, etc etc)

author: station240
author_rank: Unknown
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 07:34:51 pm
content: Can't see the wood for the Treez ?

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 07:36:14 pm
content: Quote from: station240 on September 18, 2018, 07:34:51 pmPlease don't Teez the guy.

author: rstofer
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 07:42:32 pm
content: With the rising Yuan, the cost to buy imported Chinese goods rises. Which, in turn, means local business can now compete.It has been suggested that China manipulates its currency for the specific purpose of keep it low hence enhancing exports.The bigger question for the Chinese is do they make anything that the world NEEDS. Something that isn't easily duplicated elsewhere. For sure, the US is out of the garment business and have been for decades. But it would be pretty easy to resurrect that business if the cost of imported goods rises. OR, we just don't buy their stuff.Do we really NEED their toys and such?

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 07:47:49 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on September 18, 2018, 07:42:32 pmYou'd better hope not.Because your clever smart stable genius of a leader, is massively escalating the big trade war with China.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 08:00:57 pm
content: Quote from: treez on September 18, 2018, 07:33:58 pmDon't forget that we are mutually interdependent.Because if the UK and the rest of the world, stop buying anything from China.China would run out of money, and get into trouble themselves.E.g. They would not be able to pay for imports, such as raw materials, oil and food.

author: floobydust
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 08:01:40 pm
content: It's too late, we're all crack addicts to the cheap chinese goods.It's all part of the war that china rages on us.Their main strategy is to undersell and take a loss, in order to choke the competition. Government sponsored shipping. Copy Western products and sell cheaper versions. The currency manipulation, the de-valued Yuan.Unfortunately, it's our nations that are degrading. Local manufacturing and technology shrivelling up and disappearing.Trump seems to be trying to stop some of this by imposing tariffs but it's probably too late.Everyone is dependant on the low cost products from china and could care less if local businesses die out.The industries that have already died, would take a decade to start back up.Will the USA ever make an iPhone? Or is it Foxconn from now on in.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 08:02:06 pm
content: Quote from: treez on September 18, 2018, 07:33:58 pmWhen I was young, the USD:GBP rate was 1c == 1d, i.e. £1=$2.40.Since then the pound has halved in value, and it has become impossible for us to buy anything from the US.Or not.

author: rstofer
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 08:09:07 pm
content: When I was in Germany in '66-'67, it was 4 DM = 1 USD. Today it's down to 1.67 DM = USD. The DM is stronger than it was and the dollar is weaker than it was. That makes US exports more affordable in Germany than German imports in the US.When I lived in Singapore back in '87-'88, 2 S$ = 1 USD. Today it's 1.37 S$ = 1 USD. Again, our products are more affordable in Singapore and their's are less affordable here.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 08:10:29 pm
content: Quote from: treez on September 18, 2018, 07:33:58 pmAlso, if the Chinese Yuan, became extremely valuable, compared to the UK's £.The Chinese would probably buy stuff from the UK like crazy, because so much of our stuff for sale, would appear to be so very cheap to them.So we would be able to start all sorts of new business's, expand existing businesses and get a huge influx of Chinese tourists. Which would in time, partly resolve the currency situation.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 08:12:48 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on September 18, 2018, 08:09:07 pmDM ?Hint (Euro).

author: rsjsouza
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 08:25:36 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on September 18, 2018, 07:42:32 pmThe garment business is in India, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh...But the society is used to buy cheap and replace often, thus the inertia requires a continuum policy that goes across presidential mandates.It is still too soon to see if this trade war will influence China's Intellectual Property practices... It is certainly a huge bet and the dude at the helm does not inspire confidence with his tweeting frenzy, but hopefully this is successful.

author: CatalinaWOW
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 08:45:16 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on September 18, 2018, 08:12:48 pmI think this is a well hidden dig on who controls the Euro. It sure isn't any of PIGS. Or GB. Someone in Paris may feel they have a voice.

author: rstofer
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 09:19:53 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on September 18, 2018, 08:12:48 pmI know the Euro exists but it didn't exist in '66-67. I hadn't followed along and didn't realize that the DM was totally obsolete. Google gave me an exchange rate and I took it. Dumb...I guess I should look back and find out what the exchange rate was when Germany gave up on the DM. Or wait a while and see what it is worth when they bring it back.

author: MT
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 09:34:57 pm
content: Google gave a DM to USD exchange rate! That proofs it, Google is fake news!Since more and more countries is abandoning the FIAT dollar and bringing back their gold reserves DM might look mighty strong if Germany does a Gexit. But the britts now talking about a re election about their Brexit!Apparently FED have overprinted the USD total by 21 trillions while 23 trillions are not accounted for. Gold is going to sky rocket and nobody will be able to buy anything from china when the bank crash is done, this time "printing" is not going to save the banks.

author: Tandy
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 10:13:07 pm
content: The British pound against the Chinese Yuan is pretty irrelevant, exports from China are almost exclusively priced in $US so the problems will be more about how the US trade war pans out with China.But at the end of the day China is just currently among the lowest cost countries to produce products in, manufacturers will move to the next cheapest location if manufacturing in China becomes too expensive. India has been growing its manufacturing and China has been investing heavily in Africa so that when the cost of labour in China becomes too high they can pay a pittance to African workers.Personally what I would like to see is the cost of labour increasing in all poor countries so that living standards can be improved for those people. We as consumers in the west are far too complacent in using our wealth to buy whatever we want at the expense of living standards for people in the poor countries that produce it for us.I would like to see a time where what things cost is a true reflection of the work involved and environmental impact to produce it. Red meat for example takes vast amounts of land to rear, not only where the cattle are kept but the farmland used to grow the feed for the livestock. As meat is consumed in much greater quantities in rich countries, we import food from poorer countries. While I am not part of the vegetarian or vegan movement, I would like to see the cost of meat truly reflect the cost to produce it rather than be subsidised as it is now.

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 10:17:36 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on September 18, 2018, 09:19:53 pmYet you feel qualified to commentate on world economics when you haven't even managed to grasp that most European countries abandoned their former currencies for the Euro twenty years ago? I'd call that a rather significant aspect of world economics.Quote from: rstofer on September 18, 2018, 09:19:53 pmMost people after having made a huge gaff of that order would hold off on making huge unlikely economic predictions such as German leaving the Euro. Immediately doubling down on demonstrated cluelessness is, erm, "brave".

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 10:20:35 pm
content: Quote from: floobydust on September 18, 2018, 08:01:40 pmI've had that thought many times. One of my favorite examples is an ad in one of my old magazines from the early 70s for a 15" B&W TV set that costs "only" $299. I don't know exactly how much that is in 2018 dollars but I suspect well over $1,000. A good 19" color TV cost several weeks earnings from a good family wage job back then, it was a major purchase and hardly anyone had more than one.These days toys are cheap as dirt, literally in fact. For what I spent on topsoil for the planter beds in my yard I could buy a brand new 50" HDTV. When I was a kid in the 80s I knew *one* rich kid who's dad had a bigscreen TV, everyone else had a 19", except for a few upper middle class who had a fancy 25" console.I can only imagine what people would do if prices on stuff suddenly hit 1970s levels, although in some ways it would be nice. I enjoy fixing stuff and at one time a person could make a decent living doing that. Now everyone just throws it away and buys a new one.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 10:23:30 pm
content: Quote from: Cerebus on September 18, 2018, 10:17:36 pmTo be fair, the only reason I'm more than vaguely aware of this is that I have friends in various European countries. Most economic principals are the same regardless of whether the currency is dollars, Euros, DM or coconut shells.

author: thm_w
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 10:26:00 pm
content: Quote from: james_s on September 18, 2018, 10:20:35 pmhttps://www.usinflationcalculator.com/"If purchased an item for $300 in 1972 that same item would cost: $1,809.66 in 2018"

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 10:29:42 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on September 18, 2018, 09:19:53 pmDon't worry. If I tried to name all the states of America, I'm sure I would not get too far.Then if you asked me to place them on a map of the US, I'd get even more stuck.Yes, I was wondering how you managed to find the exchange rate between DM and $US.I think I've seen google do something similar, with something else (I forget what), where if you ask it a silly question, it finds a crackpot/hoax internet article which confirms your mistaken beliefs.E.g. Google "Working Free Energy Machines" etc."The Moon landing never took place" etc etc.

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 10:38:31 pm
content: Quote from: james_s on September 18, 2018, 10:23:30 pmYeah, but pontificating about a system while simultaneous demonstrating that you don't understand how it has worked for the last twenty years is, as I say,"brave". It's the kind of thing that might make people suspect that one doesn't quite grasp what one is talking about and might lead people todevalueone's, possiblyinflated, opinions. It's one thing to have a robustexchangeof ideas, it's quite another when one feels that one is not gettingfair valuefrom the other participants in thistrading.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 10:40:04 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on September 18, 2018, 10:29:42 pmI think you'd find quite a few Americans can't do it either, I could probably name all of them with some effort and point to the approximate region on a map but being from the West coast the East is pretty foreign to me. It seems that people in many parts of the world have some difficulty grasping just how geographically enormous the USA is, it's spread across 5 time zones.

author: chris_leyson
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 10:46:26 pm
content: When somebody makes it cheaper

author: Bud
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 11:22:48 pm
content: Quote from: floobydust on September 18, 2018, 08:01:40 pmYou do not speak for me in this post. I will be partying and dancing all night when the world announces no more buying from ChinaQuoteYou certainly missed Trump's message on bringing iPhone to the US

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 11:25:13 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on September 18, 2018, 08:10:29 pmThat is the theory, but once an industry no longer exist in a country, it will take time to redevelop. Just take an HDD for example, I doubt UK or the USA can make an HDD with totally domestic parts/labor (without needing extensive time to rebuilt the infrastructure).TV, toys, etc., are in a way optional kinds of things. National defense is not. Say the UK and China have a military conflict, would you want the UK's military to use an imported Chinese made drone to monitor the English channel for intrusion?I don't think the world has a handle on this yet. It is an issue beyond mere dollars.Quote from: rsjsouza on September 18, 2018, 08:25:36 pmCurrent "trade war" is trade-balance targeted. Stuff like soy-bean, milk/butter - there is not a lot of intellectual property associated with any of them.For IP protection,I thinkit needs specifically targeted tariff - such as: "we will add 90% tariff to your cars imported into my country until you stop unauthorized use of IP from our car manufacturers." But then of course, they can use the IP to make cars for themselves or export it to another country...Most impact is of course having a few B52's fly over their industrial area, but that would be shall we say a bit of an over reaction...

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 18, 2018, 11:50:52 pm
content: Quote from: james_s on September 18, 2018, 10:40:04 pmIf you take a holiday, in a different US state each year, people may not see/visit all of the states in their lifetime (assuming they were not that young when they start doing that), the US is very big.The increasing trade war between the US and China, may give an angle as to how easily or not. the Western world can "rain in" China's advances in technology and economic dominance.Even if I am not a big fan of Trump's, it will be interesting to see how it pans out.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2018, 12:07:24 am
content: Quote from: Rick Law on September 18, 2018, 11:25:13 pmIf you look through the history books, over the last 1,000 or even 20,000 years. You see that all sorts of populations/countries/regions/industries/religions/etc etc, come and go.I would imagine, that many of them, which were big in the past, haven't even made it to the history books.Because they were too small or the evidence/information about their existence, has long since disappeared.So, it is not clear, if this China situation is just a blip, and the "Roman Empire", will once again triumph again, with Donaldini Trumpatteta, the smart, sane and amazingly honest,US, "Roman Empire", leader/tweeter.Or, as some suspect, it is the beginning of the "Fall, of the Roman Empire". History repeating itself.If there is a big power shift, will it just be the US, or will the rest of the West, such as Europe, decline as well ?The UK, is hopefully small enough, to somewhat quickly adapt to changing world-wide situations. So, hopefully it can cope with whatever way round, the world ends up.It takes time to rebuild industries, but in time I hope the UK, gets there, as needed.

author: floobydust
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2018, 06:46:43 pm
content: Quote from: Bud on September 18, 2018, 11:22:48 pmYou are reading this post via tons of chinese-made gear- the mouse, LCD, keyboard, router, HDD, semi's etc.Let me know what parts are made outside Asia, in today's electronics industry.Who manufactures capacitors, resistors, IC's, LED's, LCD displays, PCB laminates, connectors etc. in USA/Canada/UK/Australia? There are only a few boutique companies.So I don't think we will party in this lifetime.Trump tweets "Make your products in the United States instead of China. Start building new plants now. Exciting!"He ups the trade war by $200B and Beijing has $60B of counter-tariffs. Phase three, if it goes to that is an additional $267B of tariffs.Apple's Sept. 5 letter commenting on the $200B tariffs "... the U.S. will be hardest hit, and that will result in lower U.S. growth and competitiveness and higher prices for U.S. consumers". I think any transition is going to be painful and he'll lose votes.The Foxconn LCD plant in Wisconsin has over $4B (tax breaks, infrastructure, free land) incentive package including the locals paying for the plant's $140M electric utility upgrades."It will take until at least 2043 for the state to recoup that lost tax revenue, according to Wisconsin's estimates."Look at any electronic component and I see no way to get manufacturing and technology back in North America or the UK.Raspberry Pi is just token PCB stuffed in the UK, mostly made in china as far as parts and silicon, and other Pi's made in china.But politically, it all looks good

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2018, 09:04:51 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on September 18, 2018, 11:50:52 pmI think it would be interesting to see all the states, but really, I think if one were to take a holiday to many of the states they would be rather disappointed. I mean no disrespect to those who call the "flyover" states home and I'm sure there's some nice areas in all of them, but we have vast swaths of land where there is not a lot going on, where the climate is unpleasant much of the year and there isn't much to see. I drove about halfway across Texas one time and part of that I drove hours seeing nothing but flat brown ground with scrubby brush. I stopped for a pee break and didn't even bother to pull over, we just stopped in the middle of the highway and got out and walked around. I could see miles out to the horizon in each direction so an oncoming car would have taken minutes to reach that spot from the time it was visible.I really wish some of the people flooding into my region would go settle in the more sparse areas because it's fer too crowded here, but everyone wants to live on the coasts.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2018, 09:20:14 pm
content: Quote from: Bud on September 18, 2018, 11:22:48 pmYou certainly missed Trump's message on bringing iPhone to the USIMHO it doesn't really matter. A person cannot make a living wage building products that sell anywhere near as cheap as people have come to expect, at least not in any useful scale. Maybe you have 4 or 5 employees making a good wage operating a production line that decades ago would have been staffed by several hundred skilled workers. If we build iPhones here they will be built by automated assembly lines and we still won't have a bunch of good manufacturing jobs.Bottom line is that people have come to expect *cheap* toys, and the only way we get cheap toys is by exploiting labor that is far cheaper than anyone can live off of in this country.

author: rstofer
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2018, 09:56:20 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on September 19, 2018, 12:07:24 amHow long did it take the US to tool up for WW II? I don't know the answer but it must have been pretty darn quick. True, we were building airplanes and battleships, no super high technology, but still, it didn't take long to set up the factories.I worked at an aircraft plant in the early '70s and a lot of the machines were owned by the Federal Government. The company didn't have the funds to buy all the necessary machines during the war so the government provided them. Twenty five years later we were still using them.Officially WW II started Sept 1, 1939 and ended Sept 2, 1945 - six years and a day. The US wasn't involved with the war in the Pacific until Dec 7, 1941 and the war in Europe Dec 11, 1941 when Hitler declared war with the US.So, what did we create during that 6 year period? It was pretty amazing!Don't sell the US short when we decide to do something.

author: jmelson
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 19, 2018, 10:31:21 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on September 19, 2018, 09:56:20 pmWell, of course, this was a national emergency. We converted ALL production over to "war work", so there were no major consumer goods produced other than food and a minimal amount of maintenance items. Everything was rationed. While Rolls Royce developed the Merlin aircraft engine, the Packard auto company improved it and made most of the Merlins used in various aircraft. A bunch of other auto factories were converted to make aircraft, and cranked them out at astonishing rates. Alan Turing developed the "Bombe" to break the German's Enigma code, but then the design was turned over to the NCR company in the US. The British made a couple dozen Bombes, but NCR made several HUNDRED, and theirs were at least 20 times faster. One shipload of NCR Bombes were sent to England, but about 200 were put to work in a stadium-sized building about where the Smithsonian is now on the Mall in Washington DC. With that huge bank of Bombes, they could break the first message of the day (when the order of rotors in the Enigmas were changed) in 20 minutes, and then break individual messages at the rate of a couple minutes each.So, it was an all-out effort, that employed practically everyone in the entire US over the age of 18 in some way. Rosie the riveter and all that.Jon

author: chris_leyson
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 12:49:29 am
content: In terms of component manufacturing in the UK we've been manufacturing zero zip zilsch nothing for decades and no amount of optimism is going to turn that around and we've lost the knowledge and skill. We've become consumers rather than builders. We can put the "Lego" pieces together but we can't build the "Lego" pieces whereas Chinese industry can can do both.

author: rstofer
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 01:05:32 am
content: Quote from: jmelson on September 19, 2018, 10:31:21 pmAnd everybody was on the same page.

author: Richard Crowley
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 01:20:06 am
content: Quote from: james_s on September 18, 2018, 10:40:04 pmUS Virgin islands is UTC-4,Alaska and Hawaii are UTC -10Guam is UTC +10

author: rsjsouza
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 02:01:03 am
content: Quote from: Richard Crowley on September 20, 2018, 01:20:06 amThe sun never sets on the American Empire... You forgot Iraq (UTC+3) and Afghanistan (UTC+4.5)<duck and cover>

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 03:55:47 am
content: Quote from: james_s on September 19, 2018, 09:04:51 pmThe UK gets the same thing. I don't know for sure, what the mechanisms are, as to why imigrants to the UK, choose where to live.But, (my guess is) London is often chosen as a settling place, because that is what everyone has heard of and talks about, as regards the UK.The reality is most other places are arguably better than London. Because London has got pollution (relatively worse than elsewhere), is somewhat over crowded, has very heavy traffic making it tricky and a pain, to drive there.The house prices are through the roof, various measures of things, are usually significantly worse than other parts of the UK. E.g. Crime rates, car accident rates, etc.Hence the cost of living there, is significantly worse than most other parts of the UK.Yet, lots of people, choose London to live in.Now, if you are visiting (holidaying) in the UK, and tour London. Fair enough.If you have an occupation that really needs to be in London, such as politics, TV broadcasting, Stock exchange stuff, film making and many other things. Than again, fair enough.But I guess, such is life. So people are free to choose, and so many of them choose the same place (unfortunately).Even hundreds of years ago, London seems to have suffered from over crowding.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 04:08:48 am
content: Quote from: rstofer on September 19, 2018, 09:56:20 pmBetween about 1940 to (around) 1980 or 1990, America seems to have been very successful.But after that era, things may not be doing so well.Part of the issue might be taking on too many wars, putting in unsuitable president(s) and China's increasing success as it gets closer and closer to becoming a very rich superpower, or whatever you want to call it.It's not clear, if in twenty years time, the US will be back up there at the top, or get over taken by China, India, Europe and maybe other countries or groups of countries.

author: floobydust
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 04:37:51 am
content: The 2007 documentary "Manufactured Landscapes" is absolutely stunning, showing the scale of transformation and manufacturing in china. It's worth hunting down... also found as a paid youtube movie or not.https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=manufactured+landscapesLow rez pictures from it in the TedTalk.The photographer's belief is it's not sustainable - china is cashing in by sacrificing the environment, working the workers to death in long hours and health problems etc.The 18km coal stockyard, the 90,000 staff at the shoe factory, the 500m long electric motor plant, the IC disassembly for recycling the metals... it's all a jaw dropper.

author: MT
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 01:35:27 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on September 19, 2018, 09:56:20 pmNo wonder US cars from the 70'ies where all crap, beyond crap! Not to mention the lousyquality of the standard logic chip series that even forced Feynman to investigate why.Anyhow, one reason why US could enter the war so quickly was because of all the auto manufacturers, the plants was allready there. One example , when Ford took over the manufacturing of a 2 engine bomber from the original aircraftmanufacturer due to the way autos was assembled did 6 bombers a week compared to the original aircraft manufacturer who did one every month with more people as they showed in an american documentary just recently.

author: rstofer
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 01:40:25 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on September 20, 2018, 04:08:48 amHave you looked at numbers? Say GDP and growth of GDP?. US is about 50% larger than China and while China represents 20% of world GDP, the US is 30%.https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdphttps://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdpThe UK's GDP doesn't look good over the last 4 years and represents 4% of the world economy:https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdpI do agree, however, that we should quit spending our country's money on useless wars and defense of other countries. We have more important things to do with the money right here at home. A trillion dollars or so would have fixed a lot of bridges and repaved a lot of roads.

author: rsjsouza
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 02:26:35 pm
content: Just one detail about IC manufacturing in the US... IIRC the US law requires that state-of-the-art technology nodes cannot be shared outside of the US (or NATO countries). I know that the vast majority of advanced processors and advanced analog/special purpose wafer dies are manufactured in the US or allied countries and are packaged in Asia. Packaging is a dirty process, thus the off-shoring.I can't speak for other segments of the industry, though.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 04:33:30 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on September 20, 2018, 01:40:25 pmThe UK is a relatively small country, representing a fraction of 1% (internet says 0.87%) of the worlds population. So capturing >4% GDP, is rather good (relatively speaking).The US (4.28% of world population) is many times bigger (population and physical size), than the UK. The GDP gets multiplied up as a result.The thing is, that what I remember of future trend news articles, for 10, 20 or 30 years time. Predict China (and other countries), rising up the charts. With the US lagging behind.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 04:42:38 pm
content: Quote from: rsjsouza on September 20, 2018, 02:26:35 pmWhile the US was leading, IC development, such laws could be successful.But Intel is getting great difficulty, going down to 10nm feature size in the US. It has been running VERY late, and they still don't seem to be selling such chips.Whereas, others have gone down to 7nm, and they are beginning (or soon will be), to be available for purchase. These are (or will be) made in (I think) Taiwan and South Korea (e.g. TSMC) and maybe other producers in that region.I.e. AMD's upcoming range of processors and graphics processors. (The 7nm ones), and other companies mobile phone chips (e.g. Arm cpus), and probably a number of other things.tl;drThe US (Intel) seem to be losing their manufacturing advantage over the best, ICs.EDIT:The rumours and what is going to happen in real life, in the future. Are not necessarily the same.It is still early days, to know for sure, if the 7nm will be available for lots of products, in large quantities, significantly before 10nm gets released.It depends on which rumours one believes!

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 05:32:40 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on September 20, 2018, 04:42:38 pmThe principal things that are controlled (or kept under control if you prefer) are not the commercial run-of-the-mill CMOS processes but the more exotic InP and SiGe processes that are useful in making the front ends of high bandwidth radar and similarly militarily significant equipment, also processes used for sensors (IR imaging etc.). HPAK still runs its own on-shore fab for these processes, I imagine that the military industrial complex companies do too.I suspect that is is no accident that one of the 7 remaining fabs in the UK is run by Raytheon and one of the others is run by micron making "CMOS sensors".

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 05:45:23 pm
content: Quote from: Cerebus on September 20, 2018, 05:32:40 pmVery good point.Some people worry about how much of modern fighter jets stuff is manufactured in China.In theory, none of it.But there are rumours floating about that because of fake (and probably substandard parts), and because the procurement process is so long and complicated. That some Chinese manufactured components may have crept in.So some jet fighter, large box of electronics is made up of lots of modules. Those various modules might come from various sources. Then those sub-modules are made of of even smaller modules.So as you follow the supply chain downwards. It could be that one of the smaller assemblies and/or components e.g. A tiny little sensor component. Is actually made in China.But my sources of such information, are usually from somewhat unreliable, internet scare-mongering, and rumour producing sites. So what the actual reality is really like, I don't know.Since military stuff, tends to be kept tight lipped, it is difficult to get reliable sources of information about it.E.g. There are worries about China's control of rare Earth metals. Which could be important, if serious shooting war(s) break out. (The US has substantial stockpiles of various, "war essential/important" materials, buried in the desert or somewhere, for just such emergencies, I have seen mentioned in various places).

author: mtdoc
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 06:00:33 pm
content: Quote from: floobydust on September 18, 2018, 08:01:40 pmWait, are we talking about Amazon now?

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 06:19:59 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on September 20, 2018, 05:45:23 pmIndeed, it's one of those areas where "Those that know don't say, those that say, don't know". Back in the day I knew enough people in the right places to probably have had, should I have wanted to, a fair picture of the real situation. Nowadays I'm as blissfully ignorant as the rest of the public. What I can say, based on previous insider knowledge and comparing it to what's said publicly is that the Politicians and people senior enough in the Forces/Police/Whatever to be regarded as members of the political class are almost always clueless about the real situation, and the journalists and pundits that talk to them, also equally devoid of clue.Even were I still in a position to know what's what, I'm sufficient of a patriot that I doubt that I'd do more than make comforting noises in public if all was well or, if all was not well, keep quiet and go and hassle my (useless, careerist, spineless, party-line-towing) local MP.

author: rstofer
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 07:58:35 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on September 20, 2018, 04:33:30 pmI have been following BREXIT closely because, in my view, it is the most significant global political event of our times. I wish the UK all the best and I hope the US can work with the UK to make sure they don't suffer from the withdrawal.I don't spend a lot of times on predictions. If they were any indicator of reality, Hillary would be President. Everybody said she was going to win in a landslide. Biggest blowout in history. Until the votes got counted...

author: edy
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 08:07:17 pm
content: As much as some would like to blame the Chinese for all of this, I would like to remind ourselves that our own companies (in search for higher profits) and we ourselves (as consumers who want for more and more stuff) are also just as responsible, if not more, for the current state of affairs.A big reason for our increased standard of living is on the back of the Chinese labour market, who toil away under sub-standard non-unionized conditions, spewing pollution everywhere, for pennies on the dollar. We decided to look the other way to get our cheap sneakers, clothing, toys and electronics. Meanwhile our economies were able to shift away from manufacturing to more service oriented industries while keeping our inflation and wages relatively low, while corporate profits have skyrocketed.This is not only a Chinese phenomenon. Even within North America we have seen manufacturing move to areas of lower wages and less regulation/unionization and costs of living, thus able to ensure a steady supply of workers at optimal pricing to maximize corporate profit, and also please our consumerist mentality. You have also seen the repair industry dry up, and with increasing complexity of goods and cost-savings they are not lasting as long as often not even worth fixing.China has a population of about 1.379 BILLION as of 2016. Europe has 741 million, and North America has about 579 million. So China's population is comparable to the TOTAL population of all of Europe and North America combined. China is developing, it has a growing middle class, the people have aspirations there too and want to enjoy modern life as much as the next guy.There should be a plan in place to curtail Chinese IP theft and unfair working conditions, pollution regulations and so on... at least to try and level the playing field. I think working together with China would be better than unrealistically drawing a line in the sand and trying to bring back industries that we don't want anyways, and that the average worker here would feel too stressed out doing. If the Chinese workers have the advantage currently over robots, it is only because these unskilled menial assembly tasks are easier to handle by humans... but not forever.Either way the future should prove very interesting... and don't forget India which is almost the same population of China yet not there yet, but could also be rising.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 08:42:30 pm
content: I've always and/or often felt that the massive Chinese "bubble", which has carried on for a long while now.Whereby, we can buy these amazingly low priced goods from China, would burst, sooner or later.But times are gradually changing, as mentioned a few posts up, Brexit, Trumps massive trade duties, sometimes tensions with Russia and sometimes China, over the tiny islands China have decided to unilaterally claim as their own.This "bubble" could burst, sooner or later. Maybe Trumps trade war will go too far. Maybe China will have riots and trouble on their home shores.I guess the world will cope, but it might take a few years of shortages of stuff and perhaps, sky high prices for some stuff. Before things get back to normal.The Chinese, amazingly low prices, don't seem credible for the long term. Surely something must budge and/or go wrong (i.e. the "bubble" bursts).

author: floobydust
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 09:05:31 pm
content: Communism seems superior to Democracy in a few ways.The State mandates growth and investment in industries and massive movements occur, unquestioned.Made in China 2025plan took over two years and 150 experts from the China Academy of Engineering, to put together.Let's see what other nations have as a strategy or plan.Democracy in the West- we elect idiot politicians who do nothing but screw up a country and make a mess, then we swing and vote the other way and repeat et. al. as an oscillator.The result is no big plan for a nation's technology or industry growth and world competitiveness.In a few years, people get fed up and vote the other way, i.e. USA oscillates between Democrat and Republican, Canada flips political parties every four years, Australia has some political gong show as well.Outside of wartime, I can't see a (democratic) nation pooling resources and working together with a mandate to grow local industry and business.This massive coordinated effort by the chinese will not be beaten.

author: edy
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 10:36:53 pm
content: Quote from: floobydust on September 20, 2018, 09:05:31 pmYes, until you have to live under it.What exactly is our goal as an individual? As a society? Do we want to work 18 hour days, work like a dog and compete to the point of suicide and family shame? Is there nothing else to life than conforming to some ideology which ultimately is a failure (as most communist countries have experienced) and is just as rife with corruption and greed as any other?Not that the western system of government is perfect, but at least we have the freedom to criticize it, write about it, protest it, start various organizations that may be counter to the current government policies, and not be afraid of imprisonment, torture and having your family killed (at least not by the government).Take for example the APOLLO MOON MISSIONS... That initiative was founded during the cold war. Eisenhower first conceived of it, then Kennedy announced the goal in 1961, and it progressed through both Johnson and Nixon administrations (regardless of whether Republican or Democratic parties). It was an effort of immense importance and among other things, was to thumb our nose at the Russians but also by proxy meant to show FREE DEMOCRATIC CAPITALIST superiority over COMMUNIST idealogies in getting the job done.My point is, you don't have to have a communist dictatorship flogging the people into doing stuff to get a mission done. I can show you plenty of examples where free countries MOBILIZE their civilians in a massive effort to build and work together over a number of years and government administrations in a large project. But the HEART has to be with it... or some national ambition, or an external threat that makes the population spend the money and sacrifice their time to get the job done.If anything, when Communism forces the people to do stuff they don't want, it only results in wasting effort in many stupid projects which probably shouldn't be done... decided on by non-elected officials who dictate to the masses. One example is the GREAT CHINESE FAMINE (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine) partly blamed on Mao Zedong's radical changes in agriculture imposed by government regulations during the "Great Leap Forward" (1958-1962) in which about 35 million people died. Read that page and see how the communist government decided that because steel/iron production was needed, peasant farmers were pulled away from private farming and only government commune farming with far too few people were left remaining to produce food the country needed.China may be balancing things out for now, but don't let them fool you. A few billionaires have vanished in recent times, meant to scare people and many think it is to also take focus away from massive government corruption as well. Censorship, inability to criticize the government, even if you are abroad (threaten your family who remain behind), freedom of the press, one-child policy, etc... we take our freedom for granted and I hope we will value it enough to fight for it.

author: rstofer
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 20, 2018, 11:40:42 pm
content: I don't know about other countries but, in the US, chaos works best. Get all you smart people in college and toss out the rule book. We generate entrepreneurs by the hundreds. They can work on whatever they like, they can form companies, they can get rich off their own efforts. It's a pretty good system. Of course, the concept of equality, as it applies to wealth, is right out the window. Those who can succeed are free to succeed in a really big way.Centrally managed systems will always fail due to corruption or incompetence. While we're talking about China, did everybody see where they changed the law to allow Xi Jinping to become President for life? I don't think that is anywhere near democratic. There are some folks who think Trump will try the same thing (jokingly).I don't pretend to understand the parliamentary system, and I especially don't understand the system in the UK. Maybe by the time BREXIT settles down I'll have a better handle on it. We just don't do the 'vote of no confidence' bit to replace our top executive.

author: doobedoobedo
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 12:38:04 am
content: Quote from: floobydust on September 20, 2018, 09:05:31 pmCertainly in body counthttps://scottmanning.com/content/communist-body-count/

author: Richard Crowley
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 02:10:15 am
content: Quote from: floobydust on September 20, 2018, 09:05:31 pmToo bad it takes totalitarianism to get people to play.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 02:40:36 am
content: Extreme economic (which are the same as political) systems are all similar, they put power and contrived justifying ideology before people.The era of large needs for human labor is rapidly changing into an era where work is done by machines. That shift will be a huge equalizer, because 0 equals 0. Businesses big and small are expected to fail in large numbers. Nobody has any idea what will happen.That shift is a huge challenge, one which the human race has to deal with or (just as likely as not) perish.Think of it as the human race's difficult teen years as we grow into adulthood. In the animal kingdom many youngsters never make it to adulthood. Intelligent species are probably like that too. We should all be praying we don't destroy the thin zone of life coating our beautiful planet in our stupidity.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 04:03:48 am
content: Communism looks good on paper, and it can work in a small, homogenous group of similarly minded people but in the real world it doesn't scale well. The typical family with kids is essentially communism, money comes into the household and goes into a shared account, everyone contributes to the chores, etc and property is shared amongst family members. Once you get up past a few dozen people who start to have differing goals, interests and lifestyles it doesn't really work. It doesn't take long before significant numbers of people figure out they can coast along without pulling their own weight and it will take a long time to catch up to them. Other people figure out how to game the system and get to be more equal than others. That said, there is no perfect system, all of the isms lead to more or less the same result if one tries to implement them in pure form without checks & balances.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 07:01:17 am
content: I wonder what proportion of treez' threads end up in pointless political discussions?I wonder if the moderators are beginning to keep a wary eye on his threads?

author: ferdieCX
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 08:12:51 am
content: All political systems fail when they stop to be a meritocracy and became an "amigocracy" (sorry for the spanish slang)If the only way you can grow up is by having the "right" friends, but you don't have them, you will not care if the system blows away.It may happen that you don't pursue actively to make it fail, but you will not contribute that it prevails. If too many people is in this situation, the system will unavoidable slowly decline.By the way, to have state owned basic public services like water, electricity, telephony and basic health care can work quite well, at least in a small country.

author: CJay
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 09:29:10 am
content: Quote from: edy on September 20, 2018, 10:36:53 pmCommunism is a great and noble idea, right up to the point where you involve humans in it, then it all falls apart when exposed to greed, human nature etc.Weirdly, those who decry things like social healtchare and welfare are the very people who would make communism fail by their own greed and selfishness.

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 09:45:28 am
content: To fire the OP's question back at him with some little twist; when will the world not be able to buy Japanese vehicles ?30 years ago the Japanese were the western challenging race and now they have a large marketplace car presence and we're not incensed with that, why should we be concerned with Chinese electronics ?Want to understand why they are like they are, then watch just the last couple of episodes of this great series:http://www.pbs.org/story-china/home/

author: BrianHG
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 09:54:49 am
content: Quote from: tautech on September 21, 2018, 09:45:28 amVideo not available in my area...Funny, were really close to the US and we even have PBS channels available on our cable TV and we can receive PBS over the air with a good antenna on the roof.Must resort to MVGroup... Again...

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 09:57:44 am
content: Quote from: BrianHG on September 21, 2018, 09:54:49 amTry the other links in this Google search:https://www.google.co.nz/search?q=the+story+of+china&rlz=1C1CHBF_enNZ760NZ760&oq=the+story+of+China&aqs=chrome.0.35i39j0l5.7900j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

author: BrianHG
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 10:06:39 am
content: Quote from: tautech on September 21, 2018, 09:57:44 amOMG, what garbage quality. A 1/4 sized picture in the bottom right corner at 240p, 4khz audio. MVGroup has it, the real BBC version at 720p.https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06ymzy7/episodes/guide

author: ferdieCX
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 11:14:22 am
content: Quote from: tautech on September 21, 2018, 09:45:28 amIMHO, because:Japan made cars and electronics are high quality, AND a that time the electronics was repairable.They were built by workers that worked and awful lot of hours a week, but had decent wages.Japan has an Emperor, but it is a democracySo, it seemed that Japan was playing more or less fair

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 04:00:07 pm
content: Yes, Japanese goods were popular because they made very good stuff, not because they were cheap. In the 1970s Japan became well known for producing the highest quality stuff you could get. Previously they had a reputation similar to China today, producing cheap crap. It's possible that China will eventually be the next Japan, if they start producing good quality stuff and providing sensible wages.

author: mtdoc
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 05:17:29 pm
content: Quote from: blueskull on September 21, 2018, 04:29:09 pmQuoteThese are excellent points. From what you say, it sounds like the Chinese are trying to catch up to the west in regards to the financialization of their economy.This trend in the US has meant ever growing wealth disparity with almost all monetary gains of the last 40 years going to the top 5-10%. History shows that this type of trend always ends badly.One factor that traditional economic analysis does not incorporate is the role that shrinking physical resources play in impacting economic growth. Traditional GDP calculations do not take this into account and instead focus on monetary measures such as government spending, income, investment, etc. In a central bank, fiat currency world - these numbers are divorced from any physical limitations. Money/debt can be conjured up at will to prop up GDP numbers and funnel more wealth to the elite class.History has shown though that eventually physical world reality (resource scarcity) comes into play which means wars for territory (physical occupation or empire created vassal states) or in the past - expansion into "the new world" of the Americas. The second is no longer an option. The first is currently playing out in Geopolitics and can only worsen.

author: Bassman59
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 05:18:43 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on September 20, 2018, 07:58:35 pmAfter the votes were counted, shedidwin, but our ridiculous Electoral College system gave it away.

author: Bassman59
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 05:24:03 pm
content: Quote from: floobydust on September 19, 2018, 06:46:43 pmEstimates I've read about how many jobs will "be created" by this Hon Hai plant range from3000 with the "potential" to generate 13,000. At the cost of four billion dollars in giveaways. Why not just pick 3,000 Wisconsin residents at random and give each of them $1.333 million?

author: Bassman59
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 05:39:18 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on September 19, 2018, 09:56:20 pmALL of that was financed by the US Government in response to an existential threat, and in most cases, the production facilities already existed, they were just converted to build military vehicles or whatever instead of civilian cars.

author: Bassman59
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 05:40:49 pm
content: Quote from: rstofer on September 20, 2018, 01:40:25 pmThat trillion dollars could give everyone in this country an undergraduate degree in their field of choice.

author: mtdoc
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 05:54:07 pm
content: Quote from: Bassman59 on September 21, 2018, 05:39:18 pmAnd that was able to take place only because of geography. The US not only, at that time, had large untapped and easily accessible oil reserves, we had not been bombed so our industrial base was fully functional. At the end of the war this is what allowed us to leap frog the rest of the industrial world and become the economic (and military) superpower. Unfortunately we've squandered that bounty away in a few decades. Because of that, historically speaking, our empire will be a flash in he pan.

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 06:35:51 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on September 19, 2018, 12:07:24 amI very much doubt China's lead will just be a blip in history. Many historians have suggested that China lead the world in living standards perhaps 900 years out of the last 1000. The "American Historical Association" calls China "The Oldest Living Civilization", so China is no shooting star.Roman Empire army at its largest had 28 legions - 3,000 to 5,000 a legion, so max about 150,000 men total. Qin Dynasty (214BC) Southward expansion alone had 500,000 troops in one theater.Skipping and skipping all the way to the Ming Dynasty when China exploredinternational tradein the 1400's withZheng He's seven "treasure hunt" trips....Quoted fromBusiness Insider: "Few people in the West realise how economically and technologically advanced China was by the 1400s. The Treasure Fleet was vast — some vessels were up to 120 metres long. (Christopher Columbus's Santa Maria was only 19 metres.) A Chinese ship might have several decks inside it, up to nine masts, twelve sails, and contain luxurious staterooms and balconies, with a crew of up to 1,500, according to one description. On one journey, 317 of these ships set sail at once."An English author is convinced that China possibly discovered American in 1421. In the book, he suggested that Zheng He's fleet that reached Africa was over twice the size of the combined fleets of all European nations' navies at the time.Fast forward or back, you found events like China's discovery of magnetic compass, gun powder... They were using crossbows more than 1,000 years before crossbows show up in Europe.No, China is no shooting star. China is a very strong competitor for any nation today. UK, USA, Russia, whoever, better treat this competitor with some respect to its economic power. Under estimating it will surely not be a good thing to do...Fortunate for the USA perhaps - Judging from statements he made and the way he conducted himself, I think Trump understand the Chinese and the Chinese culture well. His first trip to China shown a lot of mutual respect between him and the Chinese. So I am optimistic that he will do a good job here with USA/China relationship. We'll see. Time will tell if reality is what I discerned. SeeAHA's article on "China, The Oldest Living Civilization" here:https://www.historians.org/about-aha-and-membership/aha-history-and-archives/gi-roundtable-series/pamphlets/em-42-our-chinese-ally-(1944)/the-oldest-living-civilization "500 years ago, China destroyed its world-dominating navy because its political elite was afraid of free trade",Business Insidermagazinehttps://www.businessinsider.com/china-zhenge-he-treasure-fleet-elite-free-trade-2017-2 "1421: The Year China Discovered America" AuthorGavin Menzies- Amazon profile: GAVIN MENZIES was born in 1937 and lived in China for two years before World War II. He joined the Royal Navy in 1953 and served in submarines from 1959 to 1970. In the course of researching 1421, he visited 120 countries, over 900 museums and libraries, and every major sea port of the late Middle Ages. He is married with two daughters and lives in North London.

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 07:00:29 pm
content: Quote from: ferdieCX on September 21, 2018, 11:14:22 amAnd where were you in the '70's ?Jap cars were complete rust buckets POS. Toys and consumer goods were no better but they are now.Jap engineering was OK, well at least they didn't have the 'designed in' oil leaks of Brit stuff but it took some decades before the Japs got their metallurgy right.In just the last decade I've seen the Chinese quality and technology improve immensely, they learn by their mistakes just as the Japs did.

author: CJay
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 07:57:44 pm
content: Umm, 30 years ago is almost the 1990s, you're 20 years early

author: ferdieCX
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 07:57:57 pm
content: Quote from: tautech on September 21, 2018, 07:00:29 pmIn 1980, the people in Uruguay that could afford them was happy with their Toyotas and Hondas.Yamaha, Pioneer and other audio stuff from the end of the 70s were good, but I throw away a Sony that I bought in 1991, tired of having contact problems with the switch of the speakers.I have a Sanwa multimeter that I got in 1971, it still works and is within its 3 % DC specificationIn 1984 I bought a Trio Oscilloscope, it still works flawless. The same applies to a Leader function generator.Don't get me wrong, I have a Simpson 260 too and I also worked in the Tektronix and Fluke service in the 80s, so I known that they were better than the japanese instruments.Edit: grammar error corrected

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 21, 2018, 10:02:27 pm
content: Quote from: Rick Law on September 21, 2018, 06:35:51 pmThanks, that's a very good post.I agree, that the coming rising of status of China, is very likely to be something which carries on for a substantial amount of time. Which could be tens or hundreds of years or much, much longer.I get the impression, that China's rise, is way, way past the point of critical mass, and is long past the point it could be realistically stopped by the West.I suspect that even if the west grouped together, and completely stopped all trade with China. China's home market and all the other countries round the world, which would continue trading with China, would continue to propel its progress along.Assuming, and hopefully no wars between Russia/China/North-Korea and the west, break out.I assume that at some point, the west, will try and rebuild its industries, and become less and less dependent on China.This might be sparked off by an out of control trade war between China and the US (Trump being a kind of loose cannon, or whatever the term should be for someone who might take the trade war too far and lose control of it), internal troubles in China, or simply the Chinese prices (sooner or later), becoming much higher than they are now.I'm still not 100% convinced that China will make it to the very top of the powerful country, and technologically advanced tree, like the US has done and been for many decades or longer.Because, (sorry to be rude about China), they tend to copy inventions/ideas/IP/patents (usually from the west), rather than cleanly/freshly invent and innovate the stuff themselves.Also, there is a tendency for the quality, to not be very good. Especially as regards, consistency of manufacturing, reliability, durability, safety standards and using safe renewable materials (i.e. I'd panic if I found food I was eating, came from China, especially milk).Part of the reason for the often amazingly low prices of things from China. Is because, the item price does NOT include the costs of development and research for future products, of that type (which is partly a reflection, of the fact, that things are often copies, rather than really invented by/in China).To put it another way, the latest cpu, from the west, might cost £100. (All figures VERY approximate, just to show the concept).The breakdown of that cost might be £10 to make the cpu, £10 paying for the existing design, £10 towards inventing future cpus = £30 so.The rest (£70), is dealer markup/profit, cpu manufacturer profit and taxes and other charges, to make it £100.So a (hypothetical) Chinese cpu, may only cost £15.Partly because it only costs £5 to make it in China (rather than £10 in the west), partly because the design might be "IP stolen" or copied, and because they only pay £0 towards tax, and £0 for research into future cpus.But, in order to go 8086/8, 80186, 80286, 80386, 80486 etc.You have to invest huge amounts of money, into developing the future IC processes and later cpu designs.I don't think the Chinese method, spends (perhaps) half of the money, towards developing things for the future.I can't see how they can sell things, and keep them up to date, with the latest technology trends, if they fail to put huge amounts of money into research and development.Because, sooner or later, the west will wise up to China's (rumoured) IP/patents/inventions/designs/copyright "stealing" antics, and stop/minimise/reduce the chances of the loss of IP, in the future.

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 12:01:22 am
content: Quote from: MK14 on September 21, 2018, 10:02:27 pmYou can tell when someone's young and hasn't experienced history or taken "those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it" to heart.In the 1960sexactlythe same was being said about Japanese goods and manufacturing. By the 1990s we were all being told that we should start learning Japanese as they were going to take over the world economically, and indeed Europe (including the UK) and the US started to fill up with the factories of Japanese companies, with Japanese senior management. By 2010 the Japanese economic expansion had finished and decline was setting in.We're at the stage now with China where I've heard it mooted, just as it was with Japan, that we should start learning Chinese. China however, is already starting to show internal cracks in its rush to economic ascendancy. As an example I'll citethe whole new cities that have been built (on perverse economic incentives) that are not being occupied. I would not be in the least surprised if the 'China thing' is over almost as soon as it started.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 01:48:41 am
content: Quote from: Cerebus on September 22, 2018, 12:01:22 amAs regards, which country or group of countries, is going to be at the top of the food chain (as regards, wealth, military power, technology, etc). In the upcoming 10, 20, 50, 100 years or more.I wouldn't like to call it.It could be China and/or US and/or Europe and/or Other upcoming country(s).China is looking good at the moment, and may continue in their upwards direction. But things could go wrong for them, for a million and one, different reasons. Just as you suggest.The UK (Brexit), is about to substantially stay within, or substantially exit the EU. Depending on how the current discussions progress and/or any re-voting.I.e. The accepted compromises, may mean the UK, is still effectively within the EU, (perhaps still paying huge bills to to EU, still within its rules, and yet with the loss of all voting rights).But it could swing the other way, and we could be effectively outside the EU for real.Again, I would not like to call it. It could go either way. The PM may get their way, and (apparently/effectively) stay within the EU, or we could get out of it for real (hard brexit).tl;drIt is NOT clear how the UK and the rest of the world, including China, will be. In the next 10 years and later.E.g. How is Brexit going to turn out.What happens after Trump, to the US ?Does China continue on their upward spiral ?Etc etc.

author: floobydust
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 03:50:53 am
content: UK-based ARM Holdings was acquired by SoftBank for $32 billion in Sept. 2016. Softbank has massive investments in Alibaba, Weibo and surely chinese money.How wasn't this a huge loss to the UK? Where has that $32B gone to?salon articleon the Death by China documentary summed it all up:"The problem is capitalism itself... not just by China’s so-called Communists but also by every major political party in every Western democracy: an unregulated, undisciplined and immoral global economic system that recognizes no national borders, abides by no social contract and thinks only in terms of short-term profit."

author: VK3DRB
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 04:29:01 am
content: Can't help thinking we are all fools but putting all your electronic eggs into the one basket - China. We have turned a blind eye to cheap labour, and next to no unions or workers rights - just so we can get more stuff. If China closed its doors tomorrow we would all be screwed. We deserve what is coming to us.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 04:40:20 am
content: Quote from: VK3DRB on September 22, 2018, 04:29:01 amImagine a hypothetical, worse case situation.China suddenly 100% disappears from the globe. (e.g. massive asteroid hit, only taking out China).By and large, the equipment (Electronics), that we currently have, such as calculators, mobile phones, TVs and such. Would simply carry on running.The rest of the world, would have to then, massively step up electronics production.Prices of electronic stuff, would probably increase dramatically, and take many years, or longer, to get anywhere close to the current, price levels.But, pretty much life would just carry on.So far, we have had things like RAM prices go through the roof, due to huge shortages. There was a time when hard disk prices, also went through the roof, due to terrible flooding where hard disks were mainly manufactured, in the world.But it was not too bad, life carried on.EDIT: China sells a lot of non-electronic goods as well, but I'm ignoring them here.Eventually the electronic items will tend to wear out and break, over the next 5 or 10 years. But, hopefully the rest of the world will have caught up by then.

author: james_s
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 05:07:49 am
content: Not just electronic components, prices on *everything* would rise dramatically. If it happened suddenly like that the effects would probably be dramatic. Things like computers and especially mobile phones wear out or get broken regularly. Most of the parts to fix things come from China too, then there's all the other stuff. Industrial materials used to build structures of all types, furniture, dishes, bedding, clothes, billions and billions of dollars a year in goods of all types, even if production could ramp up elsewhere in record time there would be a massive backlog in no time.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 05:34:18 am
content: You're right.A probably too high percentage of world wide goods, across the spectrum, come from (made in) China.I can't find the latest, exact figures. Different sources, give different percentages and methods of measurement.But it seems to be in the 20% to 80% range, worryingly.Yes, we have all our eggs in only one or too few, baskets.Edit: Removed overly political comments.

author: tautech
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 05:47:43 am
content: Quote from: MK14 on September 22, 2018, 05:34:18 amAnd like this hasn't been the case for 40+ years ?China is the new kid on the bock in terms of trade imbalance and if you want to know why read edy's post on the beginning of P3.Our "LEADERS" have allowed this to happen by way of bowing to big business and their insatiable quest for increased profits to satisfy their investors...............YOU !Such is human nature we all want a piece of the pie and a few $ invested in a Wall St favorite delivers.WE are all responsible in some way for the current state of affairs but more than most our 'leaders' that we hoped to have put in office for their wisdom.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 05:52:46 am
content: Quote from: tautech on September 22, 2018, 05:47:43 amI agree.(Not being sarcastic, you are right). Yes, 0.0000001% of the problem is my fault.But the thing is (just as you were saying).0.0000001% x worlds-population + politicians contribution = 100% of the cause and problem.

author: ocset
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 12:51:56 pm
content: We were talking about the Deutsche Mark not being a currency any more...in fact, it is very much still alive....Please listen to 1:11 to 1:33 of this (only 20 seconds or so).....At the 1:11 point, it is pointed out that the Euro is 20% below the Deutsche Mark in 2015. (though not in those exact terms). This obviously helps German exports, compared to what it would be like if they still traded in the Deutsch Mark.All the old European currencies still very much trade today...and this is so that they can quickly be brought back if the EU collapses.

author: Monkeh
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 12:59:39 pm
content: Quote from: treez on September 22, 2018, 12:51:56 pmNot even remotely what he said (not that he's got a clue anyway), nor is it true. The exchange rate of the (non-legal-tender) DEM has been fixed for20 years.Why did I even bother looking at this thread, again?

author: ocset
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 01:13:31 pm
content: Thanks, but it says that "Germany has a currency that is 20% undervalued"...the "currency" being referred to is obviously the Euro.....The "thing" that it is "undervalued" against is obviously the Deutsche Mark.It couldnt be anything else in the context of that clip....its pointing out that Germany is now trading in a currency (the Euro), which is significantly undervalued compared to what it would be trading in if it was still with the DEM.If its not referring to the DEM, then to what is it referring?

author: MT
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 02:09:52 pm
content: Back in 2007-8 if you said, which some did, that Lehman Brothers could go bankrupt you where treated as an assclown,financially retard, etc, suddenly "poff" BL did and you then you turned into a senior guru with crystall ball.Now when some folks say Goldman Sachs can go "poff" you are yet again an assclown , now GS was saved (some insiders say) by Obamas secret deal with the FEDS to print money (c:a 21 trillion who industrial complex snitched) as assclowns, will printing save GS this time?Its pretty obvious if china decides to restrict west access cheap arse PCB EEVBLOG gooes ape!

author: madires
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 02:22:18 pm
content: Just for the record: EUR 1 = DM 1.95583I'd agree that the Euro as an European currency is under pressure of member countries with financial problems and that a "German Euro" would be rated higher. But you have to get the big picture. The Euro's value is based on the mix of member countries, e.g. financially successful ones, average countries and low performers. This makes our currency more stable, especially when situations change. Several years ago Germany had a problem with the 3% budget deficit (Maastricht treaty). The goal is stability on the long term. Populists hunt for the quick buck.

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 02:51:51 pm
content: Oh goodness gracious me. Using a three year old clip of Nigel Farrago as the definitive reference for an implied fact? Especially one definitively wrong?Farage is an asshat of the first order. Taking anything he says as anything more than the gibberings of a spent political has-been is foolish in the extreme.The Deutsche Mark does not exist as legal tender any more. You cannot buy anything with Deutsche Mark, nothing is denominated in Deutsche Mark. You cannot trade in DM on any exchange. The only thing you can do with DM is, if you still have any notes or coins, go to a branch of the Bundesbank where they will give you €1 for every 1.95583 DM you give them - the irrevocable exchange rate that was fixed from 1 January 1999 onward. Thus there is no basis to decide what the value of even a 'virtual' DM is, because the value of currencies against others is set by currency trading and the DM is not traded.You say:Quote from: treez on September 22, 2018, 12:51:56 pmO.K. Prove that you're not talking out of the top of your hat. Find and show to us a web page of some exchange that trades in, and offers current spot prices for the "old European currencies". Somewhere one can go and buy French Francs or Deutsche Mark. And for the avoidance of doubt I do NOT mean somewhere where one can buy old notes and coins of purely collectable value, but a proper, live, currency trading site.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 04:21:19 pm
content: Quote from: treez on September 22, 2018, 12:51:56 pmCan you please confirm that you are using a Nigel Farage statement as proof of a fact?Let us all just pause, and think about the implications of that for how we should assess your other experiences that you have detailed in many threads!

author: ocset
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 05:08:26 pm
content: OK thankyou...by the way, that wasnt me having a pop at Germany, who have acted perfectly above board........But it is strange that some countries like poor Greece went into the Euro....taken in by their own Greek leaders and without a referendum....poor Greece would never have gone bankrupt if it had stuck with the Drachma, any Greek will tell you that, as under the Drachma they would never have been able to borrow so much....i think its a basic fact of economics, that different countries, with very different economies, cannot possibly be each well served by a single currency with a single interest rate.UK nearly joined the Euro..it would have finished us off......thank goodness we didnt and why did those British politicians want us in there?

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 09:39:30 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on September 21, 2018, 10:02:27 pmChina's rise is by no means "assured". Look at your parts and Electronics. I just got some HDD made in Vietnam.Terms clarification first: Here "value" refers to manufacturing cost and similar and not moral-values.Like all of us peoples, countries also climb the value chain. Transition from low value to high value value is a difficult task for any country. For China, it would certainly be uneven. China's coast is already up there in cost and consumption, but the vast inland of China is still way back. I would even guess: in some of the inland(s) of China, cost could be lower than places such as Vietnam. The inland(s) just lack the infrastructure to capture those manufacturing now slipping to the lower cost countries.I think the IP problem will solve itself. As more of China reach similar or nearly similar living standards to the west (as coastal areas already are), they will have more of their own IP to protect. That will drive overall IP enforcement. The same applies to "copying" products.Oh, don't spend too much time worrying about trade wars turning into real shooting wars. Shooting wars are caused by mistakes - like mismatched expectations of reaction vs actual reaction. The real hot (ie: dangerous) issue is not trade. The "9 dash line" is probably a lot hotter than trade will ever be. A discussion on that would belong to a political or international relationship forum instead of this one.Edited: add the missed point about "copying" which I rolled into IP as they are similar.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 10:00:24 pm
content: Quote from: Rick Law on September 22, 2018, 09:39:30 pmI think China have done very well, so far, adding "value" to the country and feeding their population, which was not happening so well, a number of decades ago.I'm pleased with what you say about the IP, and hope that happens. If China can reign in the IP/copyright thefts, that will be good. On the other hand, by the time they may do it, most of the IP will have been drained from the west, and so many things cloned/copied.So it will be somewhat too late for the west.I don't particularly like the US's patent system either. It seems to favour the very big companies, who can afford to take people to court over the patents.The US patents, can be created too easily, even when the patent is blatantly WRONG. E.g. prior art, silly, too trivial etc. yet they still allow it to be patented.I especially dislike patent trolls.I hope that sooner or later, the world can come up with a patent system that works well for just about everyone, and yet stops patent trolls, and is suitable for businesses, regardless of how small or big they are.Silly patents, are things like, Patent = "Buy it now button on a webpage". The patent trolls, then send out requests for say $100,000 to thousands of technology companies, in the knowledge that some of them will just pay the $100,000 rather than risk a multi-year, big hassle, (circa) $7,000,000 cost US court case. With potentially big fines as well, later.

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 22, 2018, 11:54:18 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on September 22, 2018, 10:00:24 pmI am with you there. We have to run faster than our competition. We need to develop new knowledge faster that we loose them to the competition. Given the way our universities and colleges have been focusing on everything else but real useful knowledge, I am less than optimistic unless changes begin.We need to switch student grants and loans back dependent on the ability to repay. I know grants doesn't need to repay, but they need to be on fields that has the ability to repay. That will get rid of a lot of useless or low-value pursuits.If I am king-for-a-day, I would get rid of all the courses that begin with the word "study..." Like handling budget items, those that really need to be spend will be able to justify them when they request a re-open.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 12:08:53 am
content: Quote from: Rick Law on September 22, 2018, 11:54:18 pmI am in big agreement with you. There shouldn't be the (somewhat widely believed thing), that almost everyone needs (and deserves) a degree in something.About 30 to 50 years ago, only about 10% or 20% of the population, went for degrees. But that meant that society could afford the resources, to help those "bright/promising" people, to flourish and get a good degree.These days, there seems to be a belief, thateveryonecan be a doctor (or whatever), regardless of background and abilities. I think the reality is that for some things, you need a certain level of intelligence, memory and other abilities. Combined with a decent upbringing, so that the person, will be able to sit down and study for long periods of time.Hence they will be likely to succeed on the course and become a good doctor, or whatever the course is for.Instead, some (including myself) think that qualifications, over the years have been "watered down", to cater for lower ability groups and people who pay little attention at school/college/university.Giving almost everyone qualifications, means that those qualifications are no longer a good and useful marker for universities and businesses, to differentiate between good and not so good, future students and workers.But it is a very complicated subject area, with lots of different opinions.

author: mrf184
author_rank: Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 01:09:42 am
content: I don't give any fuck where manufacturing ends up moving to, I just care that cheap manufacturing services (PCB, PCBA, etc) and parts remain affordable to the hobbyist, and that there exist a "patent haven" for small corporations so that we can continue to compete and drive down costs. I sell a line of products I developed myself, and even then I'm pretty sure it infringes at least a few patents I have never heard of. It would greatly harm innovation if big corporations can just shut me down at will which is the case in the west.If manufacturing moves back to the US or europe, I'll bet that everything will be 5 times as expensive and we will all be worse off, just to pad the pockets of inefficiently run corporations. It has fuckall to do with labor costs, just look at the tour of JLCPCB factory and compare the amount of automation with any typical US based PCB fab. I'll let you in on a little secret: labor in China is expensive too now. US corporations *can* compete with China on price if they wanted to (look at costco's attempts at keeping chicken prices low, tesla's 18650 manufacturing, and oshpark which is a good deal for small PCBs), but instead they sit on their asses and insist on being inefficient and demanding protectionism. Do you like paying $100 for a chip? Well that's how much the AD9363 costs with the inefficient western supply chain, but I can get it at $10 from reputable Chinese suppliers. Prepare for hobbyist electronics progress to turn back decades if we choose protectionism over competition.

author: MK14
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 01:30:24 am
content: Quote from: mrf184 on September 23, 2018, 01:09:42 amThe real parts, cost a lot of money. Because you are paying the real costs that were incurred for fully making the chip, now and in the future.So, you are paying for the western costs of researching and developing the chip(s).Manufacturing the chips, WITHOUT destroying the environment with dangerous chemicals, and turning the local river green, highly toxic and killing all fish in it for 5 miles.Making it compliant with the necessary EMC and safety regulations, so it doesn't interfere with other things and does not accidentally (electrocute) kill or injure someone.You are paying (in all likelihood) for the development of future chips of this type.You are paying the real distribution costs, taxes and patent/licence fees, and not dodging those.You are safe in the knowledge, it is probably a genuine part (not a fake/clone/copy/inferior), which will be reliable, and have the durability to last a long time.Etc etc.So, yes it can cost $100.But that is fair enough for a quality/reliable/genuine and a long term lasting, sustainable solution.Which meets its genuine datasheet specifications.Do I want one which costs only $10, but is not really the genuine part, will break after 3 months. Does not meet the datasheet specification, the IP/design has been stolen from the people who paid for and put the effort in to invent and create it.That is making parts of the world toxic. Can be dangerous and interfere with things it was not suppose to.Does not work properly.Etc etc.No!, I don't want it.

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 11:21:42 am
content: Quote from: mrf184 on September 23, 2018, 01:09:42 amErm, in what way are you innovating if you rely on using someone else's patented ideas? Or are you claiming that you know it infringes a bunch of bullshit-patents but has genuine innovative qualities of its own? If the latter, fine, but if your 'innovation' is merely avoiding having development or licensing costs then it's just copying stuff to line your own pockets at the expense of others which isn't innovation just petty theft.

author: tggzzz
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 11:32:15 am
content: Quote from: Cerebus on September 23, 2018, 11:21:42 amEasy. You (accidentally) use patents valid in areas A,B,C, and innovate in area M.This is why large corporations regularly "swap patents" by agreeing not to sue for specified patents in a portfolio. Such patents are often valued by number, not weight.Remember that patents were inventedspecificallyso that other people/companies could use them, for suitable remuneration of course. That way patents weakened the medieval guild system which hoarded trade secrets.

author: coppice
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 12:33:47 pm
content: Quote from: Cerebus on September 23, 2018, 11:21:42 amIs that a serious question? If you develop something which uses your own novel work, but nothing else that was novel in the last 20 years you would be in the clear. Most people are not going to be easily in the clear if they are working in a domain that is moving faster than glacial.

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 12:57:28 pm
content: Quote from: coppice on September 23, 2018, 12:33:47 pmIt was a paragraph, not an isolated sentence. Read the whole thing together with the next sentence and it is abundantly clear that I did not say what you have inferred. Also, he used the wordinfringewhich one must take to mean using current, not expired patents.

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 01:14:48 pm
content: Quote from: tggzzz on September 23, 2018, 11:32:15 amAgain, I refer you to thewholeparagraph, in a context where the person I'm replying toexplicitlysaidinfringe.Have we really reached the level on here where context is nothing and it has become impossible to deliver an idea that is subtle enough to have to rely on being expressed across several sentences?

author: coppice
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 01:20:13 pm
content: Quote from: Cerebus on September 23, 2018, 12:57:28 pmI had read the whole of the original message. With your additional clarification I haven't a clue what point you are trying to make.

author: xaxaxa
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 02:28:12 pm
content: It's easy to develop something and not know if it is already patented. For example in my VNA software I have implemented several calibration types using formulas I derived myself. That is not going to help if the calibration types themselves are patented, but IMO they should not be patent worthy because any casual observer can come up with them (there are only so many ways to fill a linear system of equations and they are all enumerable. It is also fairly easy to tell which combinations are practical and which are not.) Currently I'm only competing with a few other low-cost VNA vendors, but in the future if I improve the design enough that the accuracy approaches the higher end instruments, Keysight etc may decide to mount an attack if they deem me a threat. That is why I'm considering moving all R&D and presence to China (manufacturing and logistics is already there).

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 02:31:23 pm
content: Quote from: coppice on September 23, 2018, 01:20:13 pmI started to draft a reply that would explain it in alternative words, but that would not also seem like I was taking the piss out of your inability to understand what I was saying. I deleted it half way through because there was no way to do it without it seeming like "Here's how to parse a sentence dummy!" or [Fx: Blackadder] "Baldrick, let me explain that to you in small words" — no matter how careful or neutral the wording I choose, or what structure I used. I am genuinely at a loss to see how I could clarify or simplify my point further without it seeming that I was deliberately trying to mock your inability to understand what I wrote and/or how I wrote it. No matter how much it may look like it, this is not an attempt at sophistry.

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 02:37:14 pm
content: Quote from: xaxaxa on September 23, 2018, 02:28:12 pmYour case covers exactly what I meant by bullshit-patents. Let's make no mistake here, the patent system is broken, perhaps irrevocably so. There are far, far too many obvious patents granted (sometimes multiple times to multiple patentees) and not infrequently patents granted that cover existing well known methods. The patent system as is extant now does not serve the original purpose of patents, but merely biases the system in favour of organizations large enough to game the system.

author: rsjsouza
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 03:10:11 pm
content: Quote from: MK14 on September 23, 2018, 01:30:24 amAgree 100%. Remember the process of developing true innovation/basic research is inherently inefficient - many routes and attempts tried and failed, while a few can see the light of the day. That is the difference between the $100 AD9363 and the carbon copied $10 that simply traveled an already paved road.Quote from: MK14 on September 23, 2018, 01:30:24 amAlso, the manufacturing costs fall into testing and reliability. Despite you can try and create additional part numbers with less robust features and specifications to scoop the worst offenders, there is a significant number that is literally trashed during the process improvement. And that is discounting the price of warranties and returns. Your $10 part has none of that to worry about, I am pretty sure.Quote from: Cerebus on September 23, 2018, 11:21:42 amFor this side discussion, I think Cerebus' post is an either/or scenario followed by if/then/else:eitheryou are stealing someone else's patented ideas (first sentence)oryou are innovating on top of existing innovations.Ifthe latter, everything is fine;elseyou are simply trying to get away without paying credit to who is due.Quote from: xaxaxa on September 23, 2018, 02:28:12 pmI can see that. Weren't soft buttons patented by one of the big cellphone manufacturers (Motorola or Nokia or Apple)? If so, every small transistor tester from Alibaba would violate that (a frivolous patent, IMHO).

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 03:36:36 pm
content: Quote from: rsjsouza on September 23, 2018, 03:10:11 pmIf you want to go all Boolean on me, then it's this (which strictly covers more than the original):Code:assert infringing patent(s);if (innovating){if (patents are bullshit ones OR expired)all OK (Morally, but possibly not technically)elseclever thief}else{if (patents are bullshit ones OR expired)just dull copying (and possible technically theft)elsedull thief}

author: coppice
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 07:43:06 pm
content: Quote from: Cerebus on September 23, 2018, 03:36:36 pmAh, so that makes it crystal clear that you are failing to grasp what others are saying.

author: rstofer
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 08:41:55 pm
content: You can't patent an idea but you can patent the physical realization of the idea:https://www.legalzoom.com/articles/can-you-patent-an-ideaYou can't copyright an idea but you can copyright the implementation of an idea:http://www.ipwatchdog.com/2014/02/15/protecting-ideas-can-ideas-be-protected-or-patented/id=48009/Nobody in the technical world (chips and such) wants to patent anything. If they do, they have to disclose how it works and that's the last thing they want their competitors knowing. Years of R&D and untold amounts of money disclosed in a patent application.There are a lot of patents that can and should be challenged because they are 'obvious'.https://www.gordonrees.com/newsroom/2012/new-ways-to-challenge-patents-both-before-and-after-they-issue

author: Cerebus
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: September 23, 2018, 09:07:34 pm
content: Quote from: coppice on September 23, 2018, 07:43:06 pmSorry, I thought you just didn't grasp what I was on about. It's now crystal clear that you were just being trying to be unpleasant.