May be more opportunities for EE in the USA coming... - Page 1
Forum section: electronics / general

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 02:32:11 am
content: Wall Street Journal article (May 11, 2020):Trump and Chip Makers Including Intel Seek Semiconductor Self-SufficiencyPentagon says coronavirus pandemic underscores vulnerability from reliance on Asian factoriesThe Trump administration and semiconductor companies are looking to jump-start development of new chip factories in the U.S. as concern grows about reliance on Asia as a source of critical technology.A new crop of cutting-edge chip factories in the U.S. would reshape the industry and mark a U-turn after decades of expansion into Asia by many American companies....https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-and-chip-makers-including-intel-seek-semiconductor-self-sufficiency-11589103002

author: bob91343
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 05:56:34 am
content: The way politicians think is dangerous. They have no clue.There are few foundries in the US for a number of reasons. In a free market the companies are in fierce competition and shaving even a tiny cost from an item can make the difference between success and failure.Since Asian companies pay low wages, they can sell at low prices. To do the same thing in the US would require illegal wage rates. So what are they suggesting - artificially subsidize US factories? That wouldn't be sustainable. These idiots in Washington are money and power hungry and think that passing a law will change things.It's not gonna happen. For years I have asked the question, what are we going to do when we run out of third world countries to make cheap stuff? Once the Chinese stabilize and pay decent wages they will lose their competitive advantage. Then perhaps it will be the Africans' turn to crank out low cost products. After that, what then? We may be forced to pay fair prices, something we do not now do.

author: maginnovision
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 06:03:41 am
content: If cogs goes up so does the price. People will get used to it. I don't think that part is a huge issue. Just result in higher tariffs on imported goods to even things out despite labor costs in different markets. Is it really a big deal if people can't buy as many smart watches, smart speakers, smart phones etc...? Probably help some people get their priorities in order.I used to work in manufacturing and really liked it. I'd love to see more of it here again.

author: Nauris
author_rank: Regular Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 04:16:13 pm
content: Quote from: bob91343 on May 13, 2020, 05:56:34 amChip fabs are mostly in the hi-tech hi-wage asian countries so wages are really not the deciding factor, it has more to do with existing infrastructure, traditions and technical excellence in that area.

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 08:18:44 pm
content: Quote from: bob91343 on May 13, 2020, 05:56:34 amWe are both in support of competition, but we have a perspective on competition.In my opinion, technology is what would bring better products. Without technology improvement, all we have is how to cut cost - that will likely lead us to junk: stuff made at the lowest possible cost.I like to see nationscompete on technologyrather than price. The more nations participate in technology competition, the more technology advances. Better technology itself will bring cost down to some degree, and have other benefits. Most important benefit being: The more expansive (not expensive) the technology industry, the more opportunities for people, and the more bright-minds will join in to do it.In short, more techno-competition gives us more money/influence for the CTO or the CIO, and less for the COO and CFO... More bright-minds going into technology instead of Wall Street and Banks.EDIT: Original reply forgot the inserted quote. Edit to re-insert the quote

author: engrguy42
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 08:40:42 pm
content: I think another challenge in the US is most of the college age kids have little to no interest in engineering. In countries like India it's just the opposite.IMO, it's kind of embarrassing to see how universities (and society as a whole) have de-emphasized engineering compared to other countries. Put up a job opening for an engineer and chances are you'll get a ton of guys from India, China, etc. Or if you have an engineering/tech youtube channel, notice the names of folks who subscribe.In the past 30-40 years we've progressively screwed ourselves by falling into this insatiable desire for cheap stuff from overseas, thereby destroying much of our industries. And we'll probably never get them back.

author: nctnico
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 08:47:38 pm
content: Quote from: bob91343 on May 13, 2020, 05:56:34 amI agree; bringing back manufacturing is not the answer. Good riddance because manufacturing is where least of the value is created. Besides China there are another billion people in Asia making little to no money. And then there are Africa and South America. It will take another century before 'we' run out of cheap labour. And once that happens everything can be made by robots anyway.

author: KL27x
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 08:49:08 pm
content: Semiconductor manufacturing is very few EE jobs and a lot of crappy manual labor. If it's a matter of national security, you can subsidize it with boatloads of money. Who pays those blank checks in the end?

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 09:13:22 pm
content: The US officially put out decades ago that it wants to globalize engineering and a bunch of other professions like nursing, teaching, medicine, law, IT, etc. Leading to very low wages and lots of outsourcing/offshoring. Thats their official plan. In exchange we will get more leverage over other countries in very high margin areas like pharmaceuticals. Regulations limiting prices will be swept away. A glittering El Dorado of cashless purchasing and micropayments. Nobody will need credit cars as everything will work on biometrics or chip implants.Quote from: engrguy42 on May 13, 2020, 08:40:42 pmThey dont want low margin industries. If a business doesnt make some ridiculously high profit they would rather put that money into something with a higher and higher yield. Thats why they want these services deals to get leverage over other countries so badly.They see trading away those jobs as a win win proposition because they get higher yields overseas. So bluntly, they want our young people to not go to college. Not go into debt for degrees they will never be able to use.See D. Rodrik "The inescapable trilemma of the global economy" and others. (Yes, I do think this is realy horrible because we never got to vote on any of it. They just did it. And of course now you cannot compensate people for losing jobs they never had. And they are being very dishonest, pretending nothing ever changed. ) Its a bit like the feudal system, and we are like a captive market.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 09:39:48 pm
content: According to our current ideology it makes no sense for us to manufacture most mundane things here because we do other things better, we are supposed to concentrate on the things we do best, law, very high tech, like defense industry, aerospace, microprocessors, very high value manufacturing and of course, entertainment, infotainment, things like youtube, Twitter, facebook and so on. These are the brands of the USA. Even if teh manufacturing is done by importaed workforces, the companies design them and get to profit on the increased value simply by putting their valued trademark on something. Like Marcel Duchamp's "readymades" in art. as they would have us see it, their act of saying it is art makes it art.Quote from: engrguy42 on May 13, 2020, 08:40:42 pmThere are a lot of people here (In the US) who are very interested in technology, but unless they are very good, (unlike me) it just remains a hobby for many of us. A way to get our sanity back.Back in the day people who were interested and knew their stuff could get a decent job doing all sorts of jobs, but now the focus is on formal credentials. Which take a long time to get. And those jobs despite their need for high level degrees, may not even offer much in the way of creative opportunity as its mostly about being a costly screen to filter out the vast majority of applicants.With business having a huge potential labor pool of 7 billion people to draw on.As this becomes the norm, people really will have to have carved out some area where they are extremely good to get not just a good job, any job. Small businesses wil be replaced in large numbers by global chains who get to bring along their workforces. The middle class that most of us grew up with or in around the world may in retrospect be seen as mostly a phenomenon of the late 20th century. Thats how the very wealthy+powerful seem to see it/want it. And they are in charge more now than they have been since the 1920s or even earlier.

author: engrguy42
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 09:41:10 pm
content: Thanks cdev. Yeah, I posted here the other day in a different thread that the average hourly wage for a factory worker in China is something like $1.16 US, while in the US it's closer to $23. That's some serious profit margin.I dunno, makes no sense to me. When you see all those companies that have died in the process it's kind of a shame. It's interesting, if you look at the biggest employers by state in each of the US states, I think the top 3 are invariably Walmart, universities, and medical in every state.Geez.

author: KL27x
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 09:46:09 pm
content: If you look at ANY first world country, over 90% of the jobs are in the service industry.

author: engrguy42
author_rank: Frequent Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 09:48:29 pm
content: BTW, I think one of the big side effects from this pandemic is going to be people coming to the realization that all of the stuff they think is so important is suddenly overpriced and useless. I'm talking spending all day with their heads buried in their $1,000 smartphones for entertainment (FB, youtube, TikTok, etc.). They're gonna be faced with a grim reality that, umm, maybe it's not good that all those jobs are overseas because our economy is shit and we sure could use them. And all that infotainment and entertainment is a lot less important than eating. It's gonna be a painful lesson about getting back to basics.

author: KL27x
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 09:56:17 pm
content: And people who are laid off from minimum wage jobs in my area? They are making $26.00 an hour to stay home and watch Netflix, between unemployment and the extra relief funds. It's a difficult time trying to hire new employees for low paying jobs.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 09:57:55 pm
content: Quote from: engrguy42 on May 13, 2020, 09:41:10 pmWithin the next few years the universities and medical as well as every other area that receives tax money except where services are'a service supplied in the exercise of governmental authority'(which)means any service which is supplied neither on a commercial basis, nor in competition with one or more service suppliers."will go through a transition to global tendered bids, unless it can somehow be turned into national security, war, space, etc Wel, maybe not space..Something like what happened with the Federal government and contrsctors will happen with all of the levels of government and quasi government even at the local level. So what that means in practice is that a lot of services will get turned into web applications. Schools may end up getting globalized and put online, which will make it very hard for many kids to get a decent education. Let alone a meal like many do now. malnourishment is already a serious problem in the US with one in five school age kids not getting enough to eat.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 10:06:21 pm
content: As people here know better than anybody, all of our countries have a lot of creative people and ideas. So we have a right to hope that this madness can and will change. Its not the poor overseas workers faults either. Its the system that cares only about money and nothing else that is broken.Quote from: Rick Law on May 13, 2020, 02:32:11 am

author: schmitt trigger
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 10:12:44 pm
content: Quote from: engrguy42 on May 13, 2020, 09:41:10 pmAnd in a near future..... Amazon.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 10:18:16 pm
content: I hate to say this but a smart person realizes that nothing is ever free. "beware of greeks bearing gifts" never was that as true as it is today.The government in fact isnot allowedto help people like it did back in the 80s, except during anemergencywhen they literally are prohibited to work.The same thing with health care. What little help they do still give poor people is supposed to be gradually phased out. All around the world. (unless it meets the narrow two line test - the italicized text in another post on this thread) And it is being.As otherwise it would be cutting into the incomes of insurance companies and banks. And now I really have to stop.Quote from: KL27x on May 13, 2020, 09:56:17 pm

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 10:36:00 pm
content: Quote from: KL27x on May 13, 2020, 09:46:09 pmRight, and so the loss of those jobs is really going to hurt. It will be like NAFTA for the rest of the jobs. And the rules will change all around the world, not just here in the US.We've managed to put it off for >20 yrs and our ability to delay it is basically up. Time to cough up the jobs we promised them.

author: maginnovision
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 10:48:58 pm
content: Quote from: KL27x on May 13, 2020, 09:56:17 pmIn LA a min wage person is likely to be making closer to 22.50/hr unemployed(over 200% normal). Even with extra unemployment money my household income is closer to 30-40% and work won't be resuming for months still. There are reports of people not going back to work because they'll get so much less money, but no idea how widespread that is.

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 11:02:05 pm
content: Quote from: maginnovision on May 13, 2020, 06:03:41 amTariffs just disadvantage a country compared to the rest of the world. The rest of the world has the economy of scale. The US market is big, but not big enough to even that out. The tariffs are ultimately paid by American citizens and not the overseas companies. You just end up tying your own shoelaces together and trying to run with the rest of the crowd.

author: maginnovision
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 11:07:50 pm
content: The tariffs wouldn't be about other countries though they would be about raising the consumer costs to equal or higher than of the american produced goods. It would be the way to not only move manufacturing to the US but make sure that US citizens are also purchasing it.That's the only way I see it working. Manufacture here and make sure people buy it by making it so that there is no advantage(other than normal stuff, features, design, preference, whatever...) to buying goods from foreign sources as opposed to domestic.

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 11:16:55 pm
content: Quote from: maginnovision on May 13, 2020, 11:07:50 pmYou're essentially subsidizing US factories with a tax on consumer goods. You might call it redistribution of wealth. Come to think of it, I never thought I'd see US citizens so openly arguing for what are essentially communist or socialist ideas. The inevitable result is a more restricted economy, which cannot compete with less restricted economies overseas. If something as simple as a computer costs twice as much, US companies cannot hope compete with the rest of the world. There's no chance of a level playing field.

author: maginnovision
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 11:34:10 pm
content: Quote from: Mr. Scram on May 13, 2020, 11:16:55 pmEvery moderately sized business and larger is already subsidized by tax breaks, rebates, and refunds both at the federal and state/local levels. The entire EV market is subsidized federally for example, with some states offering even more. You're pretending these things don't already happen.I'mnot arguing for any of this. I think it'd be great if ALL our manufacturing could come back home but I personally wouldn't want there to be any incentives other than the companies having the guarantee that they wouldn't have their goods locked down where they couldn't be used.Using tariffs wouldn't be redistributing wealth though, it'd be giving people perspective on the cost of goods based on our standards of living. They'd be free to spend their money on whichever goods they wanted. The tariffs would only be about levelling the market regardless of where the goods come from. A microwave from India would be roughly the same cost as one from Japan or America. If the costs were the same for the domestic and foreign version some people would prefer the domestic version, keeping that money from leaving the country which is a good thing for the domestic markets.The problem comes when you go extreme like North Korea and you can't actually manage to do everything domestically and costs for foreign goods you require, even when some production is domestic, are so high that your currency is all but useless. You either pay and the domestic costs skyrocket or you only produce what you're able to domestically.Realistically things probably won't change much but this covid crap where some countries are holding goods or goods aren't able to move freely could push some companies to move things around, a sort of rebalancing of assets globally.

author: Mr. Scram
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 13, 2020, 11:51:28 pm
content: Quote from: maginnovision on May 13, 2020, 11:34:10 pmIt is redistribution of wealth. A cheap microwave is tariffed to be more expensive. That's money taken directly out of the pocket of the consumer and put into the pocket of the domestic manufacturer who would otherwise not exist. Reverse distribution, perhaps? Keeping domestic money in the domestic market also means keeping foreign money out. A US company with twice the operating costs cannot compete with companies elsewhere. Many American companies make their money overseas and that will come to an end. Trade worth billions will be lost. Tariffs aren't going to change that as those only protect the internal market.

author: maginnovision
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 14, 2020, 12:08:04 am
content: Quote from: Mr. Scram on May 13, 2020, 11:51:28 pmSure, redistributing from the customer to the manufacturer as opposed to from the customer to the manufacturer. Costs going up is not redistributing. It's costs going up. I actually think most people would end up being fine with it. I know too many people replacing smart devices every 6-12 months, new tv's, constantly buying new cars. It might teach them to consider how much they're spending and what they're really spending it on. Don't forget that to hit the goals some americans want(universal healthcare, UBI, no poor people, no oil etc...) all but requires that consumers money doesn't leave the country and we can export items at good margins as well. Or perhaps just dominating the world markets. I don't know, I haven't looked too deeply into because I don't expect things to change that much. What I'm saying is... I disagree with what you call redistribution of wealth when the options would still be available and they wouldn't be forcing you to buy anything.

author: floobydust
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 14, 2020, 12:17:35 am
content: Politicians can't wave a magic wand and bring high-tech manufacturing back home. Fabs are planned many years in advance, they cost $2-$10B. Nevermind who is doing the packaging.Remember theFoxconn WisconsinLCD plant ?"2017 to construct a $10 billion display panel plant and create up to 13,000 jobs in the state’s southeastern corner over the next 15 years." $4B in tax breaks and incentives.Construction hasn't even started, negotiations died over what level of tech the plant is, and of course it's never going to materialize beyond the political ploy it is.Foxconn's latest carrot is it's going to be a medical ventilator plant. Anything to lead on the morons

author: Rick Law
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 14, 2020, 03:35:33 am
content: Ideally, tariff is a way to buy time to re-balance. Tariff balance out the lower "outsourced" cost to even out the higher domestic cost temporarily. As technology and other factors lower the domestic cost, tariff will then be unnecessary. But that is only the ideal case. If domestic cost is never lowered enough, the added cost to the consumers is the permanent added cost we have to pay because we decided to have such specialties/industry domestically.The question therefore is, do we really need this industry/specialty/technology to be a domestic one. The answer to this question is also mixed - for example, programming. One may need only some programming done locally (such as the software controlling national defense) but not all programming. Then the question changes to, how much do we need to maintain a viable programming industry domestically.Defining the questions is the easy part. Deciding who should answer them is the hard part. Politicians in general are far better at taking care of their own wallet than ours. We need Politicians who is truly selfless and patriotic; selfless alone is hard to find, let alone selfless and patriotic. On top of that, we need these rare politician to be knowledgeable with technology issues, economics, international affairs ... ... So pretty much, it is whichever politician who is around at the time, and chances are, they don't know enough in the subject matter necessary for the decisions at hand.There is no perfect answer that everyone will like. There are only answers that most of us would dislike less over other answers.

author: maginnovision
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 14, 2020, 03:46:47 am
content: There really is no right answer. You just do what works until it doesn't or someone happens to have a better way and is able to make it happen. The way the government is set up it's sometimes amazing anything gets done.

author: cdev
author_rank: Super Contributor
timestamp: May 14, 2020, 06:40:25 pm
content: Small scale manufacturing of unique niche products is a very interesting, positive new aspect of electronics that creates very useful skills.