new research shows the importance of upper ocean temperature structure to hurricane intensitytexas a&m scientist finds late season storms to have greater potential for intensifying than early season stormsnov 16 2021credit: getty imagestexas a&m oceanographer and assistant professor dr henry potter gathered evidence suggesting that tropical storms in the late hurricane season have a better chance of intensifying than early season storms in his new research article potter explains that differences in upper ocean temperatures between the two times of year are key to cyclone strength and longevity my interest was trying to understand variability in upper ocean heat throughout hurricane season potter said tropical cyclones get their energy by sucking the heat from the warm upper waters of the ocean throughout the season from june to november temperatures vary both at and below the surface which can influence how strong a storm can become sea surface temperatures can be tracked by satellite but not subsurface temperatures making intensity predictions more difficult the most intense storms tend to occur during the peak months of august and september however two nearly identical storms that occur in june and november could behave very differently because of these differences in upper ocean temperatures the early summer months have a thinner layer of hot water in the upper ocean and the later months of the season have a much deeper layer of warm water for storms to draw energy from as a storm draws heat from the upper layer it also draws up the cooler waters from below cooling the upper waters and thus reducing the surface heat energy available for intensification in the later months of the season the cooler waters are further down making it harder for the storm to cool the upper waters and increasing the possibility of storm intensification for this study potter collected ten years of data from the argo program part of the global ocean observing system the argo program consists of about 4000 drifting floats globally to measure profiles at each measuring water temperature from the surface to 2000 m every 10 days the number of operational floats changes daily and there are about 20-30 floats operating in the gulf of mexico at any given time dr potter used the temperature profiles to calculate the tropical storm heat potential the tropical cyclone heat potential is a metric used by the hurricane community that helps improve hurricane forecasts when used in addition to sea surface temperature potter said it is important to know what the temperature profile is below the surface so we have a better idea of how much the ocean is likely to cool due to the hurricane mixing it together it is a very timely work the role of upper ocean heat content in tropical cyclone intensification is an important scientific and societal subject said dr anthony knap oceanography professor and director of texas a&ms geochemical & environmental research group (gerg) although storm track forecasting has been significantly improved in the past 30 years long term intensity forecasts have lagged i have had a long-term interest in this problem gerg has a series of gliders which are deployed to help fill the gaps knap said however we need more support to keep these gliders in the water pre-hurricane season in the gulf of mexico hurricanes do a lot of damage and upend a lot of peoples lives in very serious ways potter said one of the best things we can do as a community of hurricane scientists is to produce reliable forecasts so that people heed evacuation warnings