29.9.2023
EN
Official Journal of the European Union
C 344/91
Figure 6
Fixed VHCN coverage in the EU.
Historical data, Digital Decade (DD) trajectory and baseline trajectory towards 2030
The current indicator for fixed VHCN, based on the current Digital Economy and Society Index indicator, covers networks currently able to deliver gigabit connectivity.
However, this may include networks that do not currently deliver gigabit connectivity, not least at peak time conditions.
This is for instance the case for DOCSIS 3.1 networks that do not have fibre deployed sufficiently close to the end user.
However, it is not currently possible to appropriately map and therefore exclude such networks from measurements.
As a result, the measured values and the forecast of the baseline trajectory may be higher than the actual coverage.
Moreover, upgrading DOCSIS 3.0 networks, which currently cover 11 % of homes, will have a very limited impact on rural connectivity.
Lastly, not all FTTP networks are sufficiently dimensioned to provide gigabit speeds at peak time.
More investments are therefore needed in the access network, but also in the core and backhaul parts of the network to sustain the exponential growth in data transmission needs expected in 2030 and beyond.
Further investments in hardware and software will be needed beyond upgrading the access networks to fibre (14).
In light of the above, additional work will be undertaken to agree a common methodology for a KPI to measure gigabit connectivity.
This will allow a comparison of data at EU level on the quality of service of VHCN infrastructures capable of delivering 1 Gbps under peak time conditions.
Against this background of the methodological limits of the KPI, it can be noted that, based on the currently available data, fixed VHCN having the capability of offering gigabit connectivity covered 73 % of EU households in 2022, up from 70 % a year earlier, and is expected to reach 94 % by the end of the projection period.
This growth has been driven by the deployment of optical fibre networks (FTTP), which covered 56 % of EU households in 2022.
The remaining 27 % of households still not covered by VHCN will be reached mainly through further FTTP deployments, which will require sustained efforts.
It should not be ruled out that a significant share of rural areas will have to be reached by 5G Fixed Wireless Access networks.
Gaps in rural regions continue to be a prevailing issue, as 55 % of households in these areas still lack coverage by VHCN.
This factor poses additional hurdles for the expansion of services until complete coverage is attained.
The marginal cost of connecting a household substantially increases when reaching rural areas.
To track the progress of FTTP coverage, as outlined in the ‘KPI Implementing Decision’, and to better interpret VHCN coverage data, a Union-level trajectory is also established for this indicator (Figure 7).
According to estimates along the baseline trajectory, FTTP is projected to reach 87 % of households in the EU by 2030.
(14) IT development and procurement strategy choices will be subject to pre-approval by the European Commission Information Technology and Cybersecurity Board.