C 264/10
EN
Official Journal of the European Union
27.7.2023
Step 2.a.
Developing a comprehensive methodology to assess the impact of climate change Case example 2: adapting to the impacts of heatwaves in a changing climate in Botkyrka, Sweden Heatwaves in Sweden have been increasing over the past decades, which is leading to increased mortality.
In 2010, Botkyrka municipality experienced prolonged high temperatures, which led to problems for the elderly in retirement and nursing homes.
Extensive efforts, partly in the frame of a project held within the Climatools programme, have been made in the municipality of Botkyrka to reduce the health risk of heatwaves.
Staff in elderly, retirement and nursing homes have been trained on the risks of heatwaves and on what must be done in case of heatwave warnings.
If necessary, additional staff can be called in to ensure further support to ensure that proper care is provided.
Therefore, during the 2018 heatwave, the municipality was far better prepared and equipped than in previous years.
Botkyrka is also supporting actions aiming to improve indoor thermal comfort and to create 'cool-spots' in various areas of the city.
The methodology of the assessment is the foundation for proper estimation of risks and vulnerabilities.
It also ensures that the assessment can be executed relatively swiftly again in the future, without developing a new methodology each time.
The following elements of a solid methodology are recommended in order to provide a credible assessment of climate risks and vulnerabilities:
— The assessment should be built upon the latest science and knowledge, in order to guarantee accuracy and relevance with current predictions on future climate change impacts.
Information on trends of current climate conditions and the latest projections on future climate scenarios, including slow on-set and extreme events, should be part of the assessment.
Available information for your country’s future threats and opportunities can be collected and analysed based on a wide range of reports and vulnerability assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the European Environment Agency, the Joint Research Centre or through the Horizon Europe 2020 research programme.
— The assessment should be based upon the results of stress testing, focusing particularly on infrastructures and systems providing critical services.
Climate stress tests identify potential risks in a designated sector or system (like public health, water safety and security, or food safety and security) due to climate-related hazards, like flooding, heat, drought, storms etc.
The first step of a stress test is to identify the potential climate-related hazards in a certain area.
The second step involves exploring general vulnerabilities of a certain area of sector to climate hazard, which can be complemented with an in-depth vulnerability assessment.
Other stress tests and vulnerability assessments carried out for a wider set of non-climate related disaster risk should also be considered (8).
The results of the stress test can be used for the climate adaptation strategy.
The use of ‘risk dialogues’in The Netherlands is an example of good practice in translating the results.
More on stress testing and risk dialogues can be found in Annex II.
— The assessment should be conducted upon a baseline level, which should be updated with every update of the assessment.
The baseline level here refers to a point of reference related to the state of the climate and the site-specific vulnerability in an area.
Carefully designed baselines are essential to measure what has been achieved through implementation at a later stage and improves the process of monitoring and evaluation.
(8) With reference to risk assessments, scenarios and disaster resilience goals developed according to the Union Civil Protection Mechanism.