Forecasting Supply Chain Disruptions with Foresight Learning
Authors: name: Benjamin Turtel, name: Paul Wilczewski, name: Kris Skotheim
Organization: Lightning Rod Labs

Anticipating supply chain disruptions before they materialize is a core challenge for firms and policymakers alike. A key difficulty is learning to reason reliably about infrequent, high-impact events from noisy and unstructured inputs - a setting where general-purpose models struggle without task-specific adaptation. We introduce an end-to-end framework that trains LLMs to produce calibrated probabilistic forecasts using realized disruption outcomes as supervision. The resulting model substantially outperforms strong baselines - including GPT-5 - on accuracy, calibration, and precision. We also show that training induces more structured and reliable probabilistic reasoning without explicit prompting. These results suggest a general pathway for training domain-specific forecasting models that produce decision-ready signals. To support transparency we open-source the evaluation dataset used in this study.
  Dataset: https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/supply-chain-predictions