The Budget
Date: 2023_04_18
Chamber: HOUSE OF COMMONS
Mr. Ryan Turnbull: it gives me great pleasure to rise in the House today to speak in support of budget 2023, which is a responsible budget that supports Canadians with the rising cost of living through a grocery rebate, as we have heard about. It also makes important investments in our health care system, including $198 billion over the next 10 years in total through the Canada health transfer and bilateral agreements, and expands the dental benefit that has already helped approximately 250,000 Canadian children under 12 to ensure that many more Canadians who are uninsured can access dental care. These measures are all worthy of a speech in themselves, and yet will not be the focus of my speech today. Today I would like to focus on the fact that budget 2023 makes significant investments in securing Canada's fair share of the emerging global green economy, which is essential for our economic success. This is another major step forward in marshalling the resources needed for the massive transformation of our economy to achieve net zero by 2050. Let us not forget that this is a commitment that our government enshrined in law through the Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. This emerging global market is estimated by Oxford Economics, through a report that was released in January 2023 called "The Global Green Economy: Capturing the Opportunity", at $10.3 trillion in value to the global economy by 2050. The largest opportunities identified in this report include electric vehicle manufacturing, renewable power generation, clean energy manufacturing, hydrogen, biofuels and even green finance. It is interesting, if we look at the government's chapter 3 in budget 2023, the investment tax credits and many of the other programs and strategic investments that are profiled there closely correspond with these major global opportunities in the green economy that have been identified by experts. Budget 2023 has many merits, but I would like to focus on the clean energy and green economy portion of the budget, which I feel will catapult our country forward in leading the world in the fight against climate change while ensuring prosperity for future generations. I am very proud to say that I am one of the advocates in the Liberal caucus constantly pushing for more ambition and action on climate change. I wholeheartedly endorse our government's view that the path to net zero comes with massive economic growth opportunities if we can create the enabling conditions. In short, the green economy provides a more prosperous and sustainable future for our country. This means good-paying jobs in many industries, whether in critical mineral exploration or extraction, clean hydrogen production, electricians installing new public transit infrastructure like those that I visited in the electrical workers training facility close to my riding, line workers in EV manufacturing like those at GM Canada, again close to my riding, installers of building retrofits and many more. We know that the average wage for jobs in clean-tech manufacturing is $90,000, which is well above Canada's economy-wide average of approximately $69,000. That is 30% higher wages in clean-tech manufacturing than Canada's economy-wide average, and most of these jobs do not require a university degree. Based on one of the latest reports from the IPCC, we are rapidly approaching the point of no return in terms of any hope of keeping average global warming to within 1.5degC. In fact, the report says we are on a trajectory as a planet to 3.2degC of warming. The cost of inaction, I would say, is great and, I would argue, dwarfs the cost of making the needed strategic investments now. As one of my colleagues at one time said, we either pay now or pay more later. Based on the Canadian Climate Institute's report on climate change called "Damage Control", we can see that climate change is already costing Canadians billions, and that is just the tip of the iceberg. The Canadian economy will continue to be saddled with increasing costs as damages brought on by climate change continue to climb to $25 billion annually by 2025, which is equal to 50% of projected GDP growth. That number is already extremely concerning in itself, but when we think about how significant those costs are, how quickly they will rise and the massive drag this would create on Canada's economic growth, we must recognize the severe consequences associated with inaction. The losses in real GDP are projected to rise to over $100 billion by 2050 within a high-emission scenario, and eight times that amount by the end of the century. That is almost a trillion dollars. This climate change threatens, and I think this is the point, the future growth and stability of our economy. This is just the top-line number, which only tells a part of the story. Authors in the Climate Institute's report say that these annual drops in GDP growth might not seem like a big deal, but they accumulate, reflecting a significant drop in investment, household income, and consumption, trade and employment. In my view, we cannot afford to lose investment, household income, trade and employment, because that is what Conservatives would have us do, which is not address climate change, not take it seriously, not make the needed investments and move to an austerity model. Waiting for climate disaster means that Canadians would pay for the repair of destroyed assets rather than seeing capital investments in key industries that increase productive capacity and thereby help realize economic growth and prosperity for all Canadians. In my view, there is a strong moral imperative to act on climate change, but more forcefully perhaps is the economic imperative to act when taking the opportunity cost into account. Avoiding the future costs of losses and damages to our economy and society means we could invest that capital in our future economy now, and invest in the innovation that would drive future growth. Let us not forget that the damage caused by climate change hits the household and hits it hard. Climate change makes life more expensive, and the solutions make life more affordable. Climate change can be felt at the household level by lowering income and increasing expenses. If we want to alleviate the cost of living pressures that Canadians are under, we must fight climate change. Our government knows that the economics of climate change necessitate action and strategic investments. The cost of climate change continues to rise, but every dollar invested in adaptation and mitigation returns a significant amount to the Canadian economy in both direct and indirect impacts. For every dollar invested, the Canadian Climate Institute estimates that $13 to $15 of total benefit is accrued. For every dollar invested, $15 is coming back to the Canadian economy. We are decreasing the costs that the economy would be saddled with in the future as well. Again, when we consider the costs and project them out into the future, we realize how important it is to act and make those investments now. Budget 2023 really builds on a really strong foundation of significant investments. I could name a few, the net-zero accelerator fund, the low-carbon economy fund, Canada's critical minerals strategy, the zero-emission vehicle purchase incentives and charging infrastructure, the Canada Infrastructure Bank, and the list goes on and on. There is over $112.2 billion, by my calculation, of climate-related investments that would help us get to net zero. That is only part of the picture. In fact, the Climate Institute estimates Canada would need to make between $125 billion and $140 billion investment per year in order to get to net zero. Obviously, the government cannot make all of those investments itself, but will need to leverage the power of the market. I will quote the Oxford Economics report that I mentioned earlier. They look at what is called the net-zero transformation scenario and say: In addition to innovation, this Net Zero Transformation scenario assumes that governments introduce policies that encourage private sector investment. Measures such as R&D tax credits, co-financing, and risk guarantees all have the potential to spur faster private sector investment and generate R&D spillovers. These can be thought of as "carrots" to incentivise private investment, in addition to the "stick" of carbon pricing. This highlights why this budget is so important. It is because the significant investment, tax credits and the strategic financing that is outlined in the key priorities are really going to drive private investment into the key areas of our economy to fight climate change.