Marmara Bölgesi' ndeki deniz ve hava taşımacılığından kaynaklanan emisyon envanterinin oluşturulması ve hava kirliliğinin modellenmesi
Creation an emission inventory from maritime and airline transportation in Marmara Region and modeling of air pollution
Yazar: ALPER KILIÇ
Danışman: DOÇ. DR. SERDAR KUM ; DOÇ. DR. ALPER ÜNAL
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Deniz Ulaştırma İşletme Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı
Derece: Doktora, 2014
Konu: Denizcilik = Marine ; Sivil Havacılık = Civil Aviation ; Çevre Mühendisliği = Environmental Engineering
Dizin: Denizcilik = Maritime ; Hareketli hava kirleticileri = Mobile air pollutants

Özet:
Günümüzde insan kaynaklı hava kirliliği önemli ölçüde artış göstermiştir. Marmara Bölgesi, Türkiye' nin en fazla endüstrileşmiş ve en yoğun nüfusa sahip bölgesi olup, diğer tüm çevresel kirliliklerin yanısıra, hava kirliliği açısından sahra taşınımları gibi doğal kirletici kaynaklarla beraber, değişik sektörlerden gelen kirletici kaynaklardan etkilenmektedir. 
İnsan kaynaklı kirlilik oluşturan sektörlerin başında evsel ısınma, üretim ve taşımacılık gelmektedir. Bu temel sektörler hava kirliliği açısından Marmara Bölgesi içinde oldukça etkilidir. Özellikle taşımacılık sektörü, gerek kara, gerek hava gerekse deniz taşımacılığı olmak üzere çok önemli kirlilik kaynaklarıdır. Marmara Bölgesi içinde bulunan Marmara Denizi ve Türk Boğazları, uğraklı ve uğraksız geçiş yapan ticaret gemileri ile iç sefer yapan yolcu gemilerinin oluşturduğu yoğun bir deniz trafiğine sahiptir. Ayrıca bölgede önemli ölçüde havayolu taşımacılığı yapılmaktadır.
Bu çalışmada; Marmara Bölgesi' ndeki kirletici kaynakları yüksek çözünürlüklü olarak belirlenmiş, bölgenin meteorolojik koşulları altında kirletici konsantrasyonları tahmin edilmiş, bölgedeki insan nüfusunun maruz kaldığı emisyonlar belirlenmiş ve kirletici kaynaklardaki azaltımların bu maruziyet miktarlarına etkileri araştırılmıştır. 
Çalışma bölgesi için yapılmış küresel ve bölgesel ölçekli emisyon envanterleri ile bu çalışmada yapılan yüksek çözünürlüklü hesaplamalar karşılaştırıldıklarında, bu çalışmanın daha doğru sonuçlar verdiği görülmüştür. Daha önce yapılmış olan envanter çalışmaları, deniz ve hava taşıtlarının aktiviteleri ile karşılaştırıldığında, kirletici emisyonlarla ilgili olması gerekenden çok düşük varsayımlarda bulundukları tespit edilmiştir. Önceki envanter çalışmalarının sadece miktar olarak değil, aynı zamanda alansal dağılım olarak ta gerçeği yansıtmadığı belirlenmiştir.
Deniz ve hava taşıtlarının gerçek aktivite verisi sayesinde, yeni envanter çalışmasından elde edilen emisyon verileri CMAQ hava kalitesi modelinde değerlendirilmiş ve modelin ölçüm verileriyle doğrulanması sonrasında, yeni envanterin hava kalitesi model sonuçlarını da önemli ölçüde iyileştirdiği anlaşılmıştır.
Yapılan yüksek çözünürlüklü hesaplamalarla, bu bölgede yapılmış ulusal ve uluslararası envanter çalışmalarından daha doğru sonuçlar elde edilmiştir. Yaptığımız çalışmaya göre, bazı kirleticilerin en önemli kaynağının deniz taşımacılığı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Gemi emisyonlarını kontrol altına almadan diğer sektörlerde yapılacak kontrollerin anlamsız olacağı, dolayısıyla bu çalışmanın, Marmara Denizi ve Türk Boğazları' nın Emisyon Kontrol Alanı (ECA) olarak ilan edilmesi için bilimsel bir dayanak olacağı düşünülmektedir.

Abstract:
Today, antropogenic air pollution has increased significantly. Marmara Region of Turkey is the most industrialized and most densely populated region. In terms of air pollution, the region is affected from different pollution sources such as natural sources like saharan dust or different sectors.
The main antropogenic pollution sectors are domestic heating, production and transportation. These sectors are highly effective in the Marmara Region. Particularly transport sector is a very important source of pollution. According to our study, the most important source of some of the key pollutants have been found to be the maritime transportation. The main reason of this, the vast majority of the world merchant are transported by ships that equipped with high-powered machines and the use of poorly refined heavy fuels on marine engines.
Ships are equipped with AIS devices which send static and dynamic information of the ships to AIS stations every 20 seconds. Ship records are gathered from 25 number of AIS stations located on the shores of Turkiye which is more than 8000 km. 
All ships involved in international trade greater than 300 grt and kabotage vessels greater than 500 grt must carry AIS device. Every passenger ships must be equipped with the device regardless of their tonnages. Actually the system is built for safety reasons, search and rescue of casualties, illegal migrations and other maritime violations, but it is possible to use this ship tracking system to estimate shipping emissions.
AIS data for this study have about 3.6 billions of ship records in about 800 gbytes of database files. The raw data includes the names of ships, ship types, gross tonnages, ships positions as latitudes and longitudes and the time data of each records.The ship types identified in AIS data are summarized. 
AIS data ship types comply with the Fairplay' s Level II ship classification. For calculation purpose, four main ship types are defined: bulk carriers, dry cargo/passenger, tankers and others (e.g. fishing vessels, miscellaneous ships, non-merchant ships, non-propelled vessels, non-ship structures, offshore vessels and unknown ship types). 
Nautical mileages (Nm) and trade volumes for each ship types are given in percentage. In total, all ships covered 518 million miles (Nm) distance and marine trade volume measured in ton-miles is estimated as 4.93 trillion grt-miles.
Bulk carriers and tankers show the largest average grt, but they represent only 3% and 6% of the marine trade volume, and 1% and 2% of Nm in the region. 
Dry cargo and passenger ships represent 32% of total number of ships in the region, 8% and 7% in terms of Nm and trade volume, respectively. Other ships which mainly consist of domestic fishing ships and unknown ship types,  represent the largest fraction in terms of number (42%), Nm (89%) and trade volume (84%), but due to the high ship type heterogenity, the grt informations for these ships are not available.
In this study, the shipping emissions in the Turkish sea traffic is currently based on AIS activity data, considering ships engine powers and emission factors from Lavender (2002) and The European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP, 2002) guidebooks. 
The raw AIS data were filtered for the study region. Ship records were sorted according to the ship names, to be able to detect every movement of each ship. The ships movements permit to identify the number of individual ships passing through the straits, as well as the instant speed and operation modes. 
Ships operate in three different operation modes which are generally named as: cruising, maneuvering and hotelling. On cruising mode the ships sail between ports on open sea at full service speed. Maneuvering includes the most critical operations which covers leaving from or arriving to a port, shipyard or anchorage area and sailing through narrow channels. Hotelling corresponds to the period of berthing time of ships for loading and unloading of ships at port or mooring at anchorage area. 
Ship emissions occur from the main engines, for propulsion, and a set of auxiliary engines, for electric power. In cruising mode the main engine works at Maximum Continuous Rating (MCR) and generally one of the auxiliary engines runs. In maneuvering mode the main engine works at low rate and two synchronized auxiliary engines are in service. In hotelling only one of auxiliary engines is running. 
Since the AIS data has position information as latitude and longitude, by using sequential records of each ship in AIS data, the instant speed of ships are attained so as to determine the operation mode of the ships.
The load factors of the engines, ME and AE, and the number of active engines (AE) for each operation mode are listed in Table 2. These load factors are slightly different from Entec (2002) since the ships require half speed ahead in maneouvering modes in most regions inside the domain. To save fuel, ships usually sail at 80-85% of MCR in cruising mode. To prevent black outs which may cause shutdown of the main engine, in maneuvering mode two synchronized AEs are commonly used. Running the engines below these % loads, may damage the engines in the long term, due to insufficiently burning of fuels in engine cylinders. 
Ship types play important role to determine the engine power depending on the ships grt. Besides, emission factors change in accordance with the ship types and the operation modes. Ships main and auxiliary engine powers at full load are indicated. These values are derived from Lavender's engine power estimations depending on the ship types. Engine powers of other ship type is the average of all ship types.
The Entec UK Limited emission factors for the year of 2000 were modified to obtain proper factors for more generalized ship types of AIS data (Entec, 2005). The emission factors are based on the global average sulfur content of 2.7% for RO (Residual Oil) and 0.2% for MD (Marine Distillates). 
International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulates the sulfur contents of marine fuels, with differences between the Emission Control Areas (ECA) and rest of other seas. IMO has agreed to reduce the maximum allowable sulfur content of fuels from 4.5% to 3.5% in non-ECA seas after 2012.
Since AIS data covers both domestic and international shipping activities, additional research is carried out to determine the role of transit ships on emission burden in the study area. Based on AIS data of this study, for both to north and south directions, total number of ship passing in Istanbul Strait is 47,137 where in Canakkale Strait it is 47,021 between 19 August 2008 and 18 August 2009. Difference between the ship passing statistics of Ministry of Transportation, Maritime and Communication (MTMAC) and AIS data may be resulted from small ships not having AIS devices. 
Number of transit ships in derived from AIS data are compared to statistics from MTMAC. It should be noted that, not every ship had an AIS transponder device in the time-period of this study, for example domestic passenger lines sailing across the straits. 
About two third of ships are transit, which means they only cause pollutions without making any sea trade with the ports in the region. In a whole year period, transit ships constitute 69.6% of all ships passing through the Istanbul Strait and 69.8% of all ships for the Canakkale Strait.
Marmara Region also have Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits that there are dense transit and non-transit maritime traffic on these waters. Also there is significant air transportation in the region.
High-resolution calculations provided more accurate results than national and international studies which were previously carried out. According to our study, maritime transportation is the most important source by means of air pollution. This study is considered to be a scientific basis for suggestion of Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits as Emission Control Area (ECA).