Havacılık jeopolitiği, potansiyel bölgenin tespiti ve  
tespit edilen bölgedeki bir uçak bakım merkezinin ekonomik modellemesinin yapılması
Identification of potential investment region by the aviation geopolitics and economical modelling of maintenance repair and overhaul facility at this region
Yazar: AHMET UMUR ÇAKMAK
Danışman: PROF. DR. İBRAHİM ÖZKOL
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Uçak ve Uzay Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı / Uçak ve Uzay Mühendisliği Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2016
Konu: Uçak Mühendisliği = Aircraft Engineering

Özet:
Havacılık endüstrisi, ülkeler arasında ticari, kültürel, sosyal ve politik bir bağ oluşmasını sağlamaktadır. Havacılık endüstrisinde gerek yatırımların büyük miktarlarda olması gerekse coğrafi, sosyal, politik, vb. ortamlarlardan endüstrinin etkilenme olasılığının fazla olması yatırım kararı alınması konusu oldukça zor ve dış etkenlerden fazla etkilenen bir süreç oluşturmaktadır.
Jeopolitik ise doğrudan siyasi coğrafyayı ve bunların diğer alt disiplinlerle olan ilişkisini inceleyen bir bilimdalıdır. Havacılığın hangi bölgelerde gelişeceği hangi bölgelerde yatırımların artacağı beşeri faktörlere doğrudan bağlıdır. Havacılık alanındaki gelişmeleri, havayollarının büyümelerini ve ekonomik gelişimleri jeopolitik unsurların dışında ele almak anlamsız olacaktır. Belirlenen jeopolitik etkenler ve bu etkenlerin gelişimlerinin parametrik olarak izlenmesi ile gelecekte havacılığın ne yönde gelişeceği, potansiyel pazarların ne olacağını anlamak mümkün olacaktır. Havacılık endüstrisi incelenirken ve gelecek tahminlemesinde bulunurken disiplinler arası bir bakış yaparak açıklama yapmak gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada, içerdiği unsurlar bakımından havacılık endüstrisini açıklamada jeopolitik bilim dalının argümanlarını kullanılması hedeflenmektedir. Havacılık endüstrisinin gelişimini doğrudan etkileyen faktörlerin neler olduğu ve bu faktörlerdeki gelişimlerin izlenmesi methoduyla potansiyel vaad eden bölge tespiti konusunda bir metodoloji geliştirilimiştir. Filo gelişimleri, coğrafi kısıtlar, orta sınıf nüfusun gelişimi, ticaret ağı gelişimi, ticaret hacmi gelişimi ve dünyadaki çatışma ortamı gibi jeopolitik etkenler izlenerek havacılığın hangi bölgelerde potansiyel olarak daha çok gelişeceği tahminlemesi yapılabilmektedir. Havacılık jeopolitiği ile doğrudan incelenme imkânına sahip olacak dünya havacılığının hangi yöne gideceği, hangi bölge ve alanlarda büyüme imkânı olacağı ve bu büyüme imkanlarının nasıl değerlendirilebileceğinin tespiti mümkün olabilecektir. Disiplinler arası geliştirilen bu bakış açısı ile beraber yatırım alternatifleri arasından daha sağlıklı seçim yapılabilme şansı sağlanmış olacaktır. 
Yatırım için potansiyeli en yüksek olan bölgenin jeopolitik unsurlar ile tespit edilmesinin ardından ilgili bölgede havacılık endüstrisinde kurulacak bir bakım, onarım ve yenileme tesisinin ekonomik modellemesi yapılması hedeflenmiştir. 
Potansiyel bölge tespit edildikten sonra bir uçak bakım, onarım ve yenileme tesisinin ekonomik modellemesi yapılmak istenmiştir. Potansiyel bölgede kurulması planlanan bakım, onarım ve yenileme tesisi hangi kabiliyette hizmet vereceği çevre bölgedeki rakip tesislerin kabiliyet değerlendirmeleri ve bölge filo durumunun incelenmesi ile tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Tesisin ekonomik modellemesi yapılırken belirlenen kapsam çerçevesinde hizmet verilebilmesi tesisin gerekli ilk yatırım maliyetleri tahminlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Ana faaliyetlerden elde edilecek gelir, tasarlanan bir gelir modeli ile tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Tesiste belirlenen bakım kapsamındaki ana faaliyetlerin gerçekleşmesinden dolayı oluşacak giderler, tasarlanan bir gider  modeli ile tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. 
Bu çalışmada, diğer disiplinlerden faydalanılarak havacılık alanında bir yatırım kararı alma metodolojisi oluşturulmaya çalıştırılmıştır. Oluşturulan bu metodoloji ile beraber belirlenen potansiyel bir bölgedeki yatırımın kararının doğru olup olmadığı bulunmak istenmiştir.

Abstract:
Aviation comes from the Latin avis meaning "bird," an appropriate translation given that aviation deals with travel by air, specifically in a plane. The aviation industry is the business sector dedicated to manufacturing and operating all types of aircraft. Air traffic controllers, when they are awake, are concerned with aviation safety. 
Aviation industry is ensuring the commercial, cultural, social and political bonds between countries. Aviation provides the only worldwide transportation network, which makes it essential for global business and tourism. It plays a vital role in facilitating economic growth, particularly in developing countries. 
Civil aviation connects passengers and freight almost anywhere in the world. Civil aviation connectivity is a key facilitator of economic growth and economical success. Worldwide businesses and today's consumers continue to depend on the vibrant and unwavering services of the civil air transportation industry while the world economy continues down the path of revitalization.
The economic contribution of the civil aviation industry to the world economy and economy of countries is vital. Civil aviation has far-reaching economic impacts. While some of these impacts cannot be measured quantitatively, this report captures economic activity generated by direct and indirect air transport of passengers.
Few businesses are as lobal as commercial aviation. Airplanes covers time zones and transcend boundaries of language and culturesi bringing people and economies closer. Taking investment decision in aviation industry is difficult due to the high amount of required investment and industry is mostly affecting by external factors like as; geographical, social, political and trade parameters. 
Aviation is long-term growth industry, expanding faster than countries GDP, because people want to travel and because the industry is growing more efficient. The first part of the equation is remaining same. The second part can never be taken for granted. If air transport traffic system become overly congested, security measures too burdensome,environmental regulations too onerous, or fuel prices too high, then the real cost of air travel will reverse its decades-long decline and the appealof aviation will diminish.
Understending geopolitical and policy trends and the other factor which is affecting aviation industry growth will enable us to adapt the dynamic and rapidly changing geopolitical landscape and sustai it's competitive success and industry leadership.
Investment decisions process which is affected by external factor is difficult process to manage. Due to the commercial aviation's natural demands truly global policy frameworks address the infrastructure, environmental, safety and security realites and needs of this critical industry. 
Additionally, aviation is one of the world's most important industries. It's development and its technical and service achievements make it one of the greatest contributors to the advancement of modern society. The industry plays a decisive role in the work and leisure of millions of people. It promotes an improved quality of life and helps to improve living standards. In this industry environment, success in trade and investment decision depending on more than technological and organisational issues. 
The aviation industry has a substantial economic impact, both through its own activities and as an enabler of other industries. Its contribution includes direct, indirect and induced impacts, which are related to the total revenues of the aerospace industry. The catalytic impacts of the industry are "spin-off" effects on other industries. This catalytic impacts is only defining by outputs of geopolitical parameters.
Furthermore, sucesss in today's aviation industry is depending on geopolitical parameters like as economical outcomes, regional development in middle class, regional fleet development and regional air travel demand growth.
Geopolitics is a method of studying foreign policy to understand, explain and predict international political behavior through geographical variables. These include area studies, climate, topography, demography, natural resources, and applied science of the region being evaluated. Geopolitics focuses on political power in relation to geographic space. In particular, territorial waters and land territory in correlation with diplomatic history. Academically, geopolitics analyses history and social science with reference to geography in relation to politics.
Considering the developments in the field of aviation,  growth and economical development of the airlines without geopolitical factors would be meaningless. The development of parametric monitoring geopolitical factors which is identified in this study, will be able to understand the development in the future aviation and identification of potential investment regions. By this interdisciplinary approach includes gepolitics and aviation dynamics, this study aims to establish investment decision methodology.
In this research, the investment decision methodology that is developed is providing chance to do healthier decision along investment alternatives. By investigating all geopolitical factor that is defined in this study, the highest potential region that future investment projects that can take place. Moreover, after the identification of highly growth potential location the scope of investment should be defined.
In this study, Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology is used to decide the region that potential aviation investment needs to be done. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a multi-criteria decision-making approach and was introduced by Saaty. The Analytic Hierarchy Process has attracted the interest of many researchers mainly due to the nice mathematical properties of the method and the fact that the required input data are rather easy to obtain. 
The AHP is a decision support tool which can be used to solve complex decision problems. It uses a multi-level hierarchical structure of objectives, criteria, subcriteria, and alternatives. The pertinent data are derived by using a set of pairwise comparisons. These comparisons are used to obtain the weights of importance of the decision criteria, and the relative performance measures of the alternatives in terms of each individual decision criterion. If the comparisons are not perfectly consistent, then it provides a mechanism for improving consistency.
The AHP and its use of pairwise comparisons has inspired the creation of many other decision-making methods. Besides its wide acceptance, it also created some considerable criticism; both for theoretical and for practical reasons. Since the early days it became apparent that there are some problems with the way pairwise comparisons are used and the way the AHP evaluates alternatives. In this study, ten factors are defined in Analytical Hierarchy Process method and as the result of investment country can be choosed.
In this study, maintanance repair and overhaul facility will establish in the defined potential region. The economical modelling of this brand new maintenance is trying to evaluate in this research. In this research, the maintenance repair and overhaul capabilities of competitors in the designated location and environment is listed. Due to the this competitior maintenance capability framework, the suitable scope of work will be determined.
The economical modelling of this newly designed maintenance repair and overhaul facility aims to objectively and rationally uncover the strengths and weaknesses of an existing business or proposed venture, opportunities and threats present in the environment, the resources required to carry through, and ultimately the prospects for success. In its simplest terms, the two criteria to judge feasibility are cost required and value to be attained and determining the investment is efficient or not.
In this study, the revenue model shoul be designed for this newly designed maintenance repair and overhaul facility due to main maintenance activities. Additionally, the requiring costs to maintaining main scope of business is defining in this study. After defining revenue and cost model of this feasibiliy study, yearly operational profit can be calculated. 
In this research, to deciding efficiency of this investment by the net present value method. Net present value (NPV) is determined by calculating the costs  and benefits  for each period of an investment. After the cash flow for each period is calculated, the present value (PV) of each one is achieved by discounting its future value  at a periodic rate of return. Net Present Value method is a useful tool to determine whether a project or investment will result in a net profit or a loss.
As a result, in this work we are trying the validate the the interdisciplinary investment decision methodology and the designated maintenance repair and overhaul project in identification of potential region.