Türkiye'de elektrikli araç tercihini etkileyen faktörler ve otomobil kaynaklı sera gazı emisyonları
Factors affecting the preference for electric vehicles and greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles in Turkey
Yazar: EMRE EKİNCİ
Danışman: PROF. DR. ÖNDER GÜLER
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü / Enerji Bilim ve Teknoloji Ana Bilim Dalı / Enerji Bilim ve Teknoloji Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2024
Konu: Enerji = Energy
Dizin: Elektrikli otomobiller = Electric cars ; Emisyon = Emission ; Şarj istasyonları = Charging stations

Özet:
Fosil yakıt kaynaklarının sınırlı olmaları ve sera gazı emisyonununa neden olmalarından dolayı çeşitli sürdürülebilir enerji kaynaklarına yönelinmektedir. Elektrik üretiminde güneş, rüzgâr, hidroelektrik, jeotermal ve biokütle gibi yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarına yönelinirken, ısıtma ve soğutma sistemlerinde ise ısı pompası sistemine yönelinmektedir. Ulaşım sektöründe ise bu enerji dönüşümünü elektrifikasyon takip etmektedir. Kara ulaşımının ve bireysel ulaşımın en önemli parçası olan otomobillerimiz, bu doğrultuda elektrikli ve hibrit otomobillere evrilmektedir.
Dünyanın yaşanabilir bir geleceğe sahip olması için mevcut sera gazı emisyon değerlerinin düşürülmesi gerektiği kabul edilmiştir. Ulaşım emisyonlarının azaltılmasına sebep olabilecek en büyük faktör elektrikli araçlara geçiştir. Bu çalışma kapsamında insanların bu durumun ne kadar farkında oldukları ve elektrikli araçların sera gazı emisyon üretimine etkileri incelenmiştir.
Elektrikli araçlar; tam elektrikli araçlar, hibrit elektrikli araçlar, şarj edilebilir hibrit araçlar ve hafif hibrit araçlar olarak farklı kategorilerde değerlendirilmektedir. Bu tez çalışmasında elektrikli araçların çalışma mekanizmaları ve şarj yöntemleri incelenmiştir. Kullanılan elektrikli araçların ve şarj yöntemlerinin ABD, AB, Çin ve Türkiye'deki durumları incelenmiştir. Bu ülkelerdeki şarj alt yapısı ve elektrikli araç tercihleri değerlendirilmiştir. En fazla tercih edilen elektrikli araç üreticisi firmalarından bahsedilmiştir. Bununla birlikte ABD, AB, Çin ve Türkiye'deki elektrikli araç politikaları ile desteklerinden bahsedilmiş ve Türkiye'nin mevcut vergi düzenlemeleri verilmiştir. Değerlendirme kısmında uygulanan politikalar karşılaştırılmış ve Türkiye için politika önerilerinde bulunulmuştur.
Tez çalışması çerçevesinde Türk vatandaşlarının elektrikli araçlara olan bakış açısını anlayabilmek için bir anket çalışması yapılmıştır. Bu anket çalışmasında insanların elektrikli araç tercihinde etken olan faktörleri, ülkede uygulanan mevcut vergi politikasından memnuiyetlerini ve tüketicilerin olası destek programlarından beklentilerini anlayabilmek için, varsa mevcut otomobilleri ve almayı düşündükleri otomobil ile ilgili sorular sorulmuştur. Anketimize toplam 350 kişi katılmış olup anketimiz internet üzerinden ve İTÜ Ayazağa Yerleşkesinde yüz yüze olarak yapılmıştır. Bu anket çalışmasının sonuçları Türkiye Cumhuriyeti'nin mevcut elektrikli araç politikasıyla birlikte değerlendirilmiş ve Türkiye için politika önerileri geliştirilmiştir. 
Anket sonuçlarına ek olarak TÜİK verilerinden yola çıkılarak Türkiye için otomobil kaynaklı sera gazı emisyon değerleri hesaplanmıştır. Elektrikli araçlara geçişin her geçen gün artması beklendiği için elektrikli araç oranının artığı senaryolar için hesaplamalar yapılmıştır. Buna ek olarak şarj istasyonlarının kullandığı elektriğin yenilenebilir kaynaklardan karşılanması durumunda sera gazı emisyon değerleri hesaplanmıştır. Hesaplamalar ve anket sonuçları neticesinde Türkiye'nin elektrikli araç politikaları ve bunun emisyon değerlerine olan etkileri yorumlanmıştır.

Abstract:
Greenhouse gas emissions by the world have been increasing with industrialization in the last century. Due to this increase in emissions, major changes in the climate began to occur. Countries are giving up fossil fuels to prevent this increase and are turning to renewable energy sources. Renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and hydroelectricity will replace fossil resources.
In addition to this change in energy production, energy savings and electrification will play an important role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gases are the general name for gases such as CO2, CH4, and NO2 that is occured as a result of burning fossil fuels. These gases have a greenhouse effect, increasing the average temperature of the atmosphere and threatening human health by reducing air quality. The transportation sector accounts for %23 of Turkey's greenhouse gas emissions.
For this reason, electric vehicles will be the most important emission-reducing factor in the coming years in the transportation sector. Electric vehicles are divided into four main groups: battery electric vehicles (BEV), hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), and mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEV). In this thesis, all electric vehicle types are analyzed in general, and the details of their technical infrastructures are explained in related chapters.
Another important point in the transition to electric vehicles is charging stations and charging infrastructure. Charging stations are basically evaluated in two groups: AC charging stations and DC charging stations. However, charging stations differ in their characteristics, such as power, charging time, socket type, and socket numbers. In addition, the current charging station infrastructure in the European Union, America, and Turkey is examined. The European Union is in a better situation than Turkey and America in terms of charging infrastructure. Charging infrastructure is spread across the continent and is improving day by day. On the other hand, in Turkey and America, the infrastructure is not spread throughout the country. Charging infrastructure is better in western Turkey and California in the USA.
Electric and hybrid vehicle sales worldwide are increasing day by day. In this study, electric vehicle sales in different countries around the world were examined. The largest electric vehicle market in the world is in China. China is followed by the European region and America. More than %60 of electric and hybrid vehicles sold in the world were sold in China. The main reason for reaching such a large sales rate is China's electric vehicle policy and the support it provides. There are 13.8 million electric vehicles in China, and these vehicles play an important role in reducing the country's greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality.
%25 of the world electric vehicle market is sold in the European region. Many of the world's largest automobile brands are of European origin, so the electric vehicle market is very important for the European region. In addition, many countries provide support and subsidies for electric vehicles for the 2050 net-zero targets. The European countries with the highest sales rate of electric vehicles are Norway with %88, Sweden with %54, and the Netherlands with %54. In the largest countries in terms of market volume, the situation is: %35, Germany %31, the United Kingdom %23, and France %21.
There are approximately 3.500.000 electric vehicles in the United States. It corresponds to approximately %15 of the world's electric cars. It can be said that consumer confidence in electric vehicles is not fully formed due to the inadequacy of electric vehicle charging station infrastructure in the country and the long distances.
Turkey's electric vehicle market is just beginning to develop. BEV sales are relatively small, and HEV sales are generally preferred. As of 2023, a significant increase in BEV sales is expected with the entry of the Tesla and Togg brands into the market. Togg is especially important for the future of the Turkish EV market.
The most important factors in choosing electric vehicles over internal combustion vehicles are support and subsidies. For this reason, tax and support programs in Turkey and the European region were examined, and a comparison was made. While there is no specific support for electric vehicles in Turkey, electric vehicles are supported in many European countries.
A study was carried out with a sample of 350 individuals to determine the viewpoints of car purchasers in Turkey in relation to the current market situation and electric cars. The purpose of the investigation was to gain insights into respondents' recent automobile experiences, preferences for new cars, attitudes towards electric cars, and buying behaviour. Results of the survey are presented through tables and graphs. Respondents were additionally asked to relevant factors electric cars and the current automobile sector by means of a Likert scale.
The amount of greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles in Turkey is calculated for the current situation and the scenarios we created. Our survey study was taken into consideration when creating these scenarios. As a result, greenhouse gas emissions were calculated for six scenarios. As expected, as the total number of electric vehicles increased, total greenhouse gas emission values decreased. While calculating the greenhouse gas emission values of electric vehicles, the 484 kg CO2 -eq./ MWh value, which is the greenhouse gas emission value of Turkey's electricity consumption point, was used. Currently, greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles are 33.86 Mt CO2 eq.
In the first scenario, where % 25of cars were converted to electric vehicles, greenhouse gas emissions decreased by %.13.82. In the last scenario, where %100 of cars are converted to electric vehicles, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by %55,31. As can be seen, as a result of electric vehicle conversion, greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles decrease between %13 and %.55
Another way to reduce greenhouse emissions is to use renewable energy. YEK-G license system is used to prove that renewable energy is used in Turkey. It is examined how our current automobile-caused greenhouse gas emission scenarios change if the use of charging stations using the YEK-G system increases. As of 2023, YEK-G certified green charging stations will be activated in Turkey. As the number and use of these stations increases, there will be serious decreases in greenhouse gas emissions caused by transportation.
Finally, Turkey should increase its investments and support for electric vehicles and renewable energy sources in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector and achieve 2053 net zero targets. In this thesis study, a survey was conducted to understand the possible roadmaps for the transition to electric vehicles, greenhouse gas emissions were calculated for the conversion scenarios, and a literature study was conducted.