Türkiye'nin kalkınmasına planlı yaklaşım ve eleştirisi /
Yazar: GÜRAY TEZER
Danışman: PROF. DR. HAYDAR KAZGAN
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
Derece: Doktora, 1984
Konu: Ekonomi = Economics

Özet:
Bu çalışmada» Türkiye'nin kalkınmasında planlama yaklaşımı ele alınarak incelenmekte ve uygulanan yanlış politikalar belirlen meye çalışılmaktadır. Birinci Bölümde; kalkınma ve planlama kavramı üzerinde bilgi ler verilerek, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde neden planlamaya gerek du yulduğu, kapitalist ve sosyalist ülkelerde uygulanan planlama yakla şımın farkları ile plan çeşitleri kısaca anlatılmıştır. İkinci Bölümde} 1923-1960 yılları arasında Türkiye'de uygula nan ekonomik politikalar, planlı dönemdeki etkileri gözönüne alına rak çok kısa olarak açıklanmıştır. Üçüncü Bölümde; Türkiye'de 1962-1982 dönemlerinde uygulanmaya konan dört makro plan ile iki perspektif planın, hedef ve sonuçları ile belirlenen hedeflere ulaşmak için kullanılan politikalar belir tilerek değerlendirilmiştir. Dördüncü Bölümde; Türkiye'nin 1970'lerin sonlarında içine düş tüğü bunalımda içe dönük sanayileşmenin yani ithal ikamesi politika sının, aşırı değerli yerli paranın, dış ticaretin, rantların, işçi dövizlerinin, enflasyonun ve tarım sanayi ilişkilerinin etkileri anlatılmaktadır. Beşinci Bölümde; Türkiye kalkınmasında uygulanan planlama yaklaşımındaki eksiklikler, aksaklıklar belirtilerek yeni planlama yaklaşımında gözönüne alınması gereken noktalar belirtilmekte ve Türkiye'nin içinde bulunduğu bunalımdan çıkması için öneriler geti rilmektedir. Sonuç Bölümünde, çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlar- özetlenmiştir. Ekler de ise; Türk planlarının makro modelleri ile yurt için de ve dışında geliştirilerek Türkiye'ye uygulanan planlama modelle rinden bazıları, modelleri verilerek anlatılmaktadır.

Abstract:
After the National War of Independence had been wony the rulers of Turkey determined at the Izmir Economic Congress the outlines of eco nomic policy to be followed during the early years of the sovereigny. Because Turkey was in unfavourable conditions at that time which is in 1923, 75 per cent of the whole population were employed in agriculture and impoverished under a heavy tax burden. The industry in Turkey was small-sized and the foreigners owned 85 per cent of the total industry. Domestic and international trade was carried on mostly by non-Muslims». In addition to these, Ottoman-debt s -; Capitulations, human capital ;.... ?..! and absence of rich resources were lacking in the economy. These condi tions and cultural and social traditions did not encourage Turks to enter business and industry. Although the Law of Encouragement of Industry passed in 1927, private enterprise was not sufficient. For these reasons the direct involvement of the state in the establishment of industry was necessary. This policy was named 'etatism1 and implemented by means of five-year industrialisation plans. The First Industrialisation Plan was successfully implemented during 1934-1938. By means of this plan, import-substitution deve*6pmej£ strategy has begun in Turkish economy. This- plan was quite different from present day economy development plans and covered only the industry. Many factories in branches such as textiles, chemistry, ceramics, sugar, coal, paper, iron and steel were established during this period. The production of these factories weye equal to the 43 per cent of the tQtal import at the same year. The Second Industrialisation Plan was prepared in detail but was not implemented because of World War II. After the Wari the socio-political change had occured in Turkey. A multi-party system was introduced in 1945 and Democrat Party was founded in 1946 and it won the 1950 elections. Although a more comprehensive third plan was prepared in 1947, because of political changes this plan was not imple mented. But effects of this plan could be seen during the 1950-1960 period. Democrat Party had succeeded a more liberal economic policy and the planning activities were abandoned during the 1950-1960 period. At the beginning of the period, because of foreign aids, accumulated capi tal during the war period and successive good crops, Democrat Party started infrastructure investment at full speed, and GNP increased at an average rate of 6.3 for the entire period of h 1950-1960. After 1954 three adverse tendencies began to show themselves. Those were the slowing down in the rate of ' national income, a rapid rate of inflation and balance of payment difficulties. The foreign exchange shortage promoted the domes tic production of many commodities which did not require highly skilled workers, complex technical knowledge and heavy capital investment. So, the inward-looking development strategy in other words import substi tution development strategy had accelerated. In the late 1950' s Turkey was in economic turmoil and a great deal of discontent arose against the planless economic policies. The situation was in such a. bad state that even the most necessary materials could not be imported for» not only new investment but also the utili sation of the existing plants. Finally the government devalued the lira in August 1958 and a stabilization policy followed the devaluation. But the Turkish Army intervened the situation in 1960 and the planless period was ended. To avoid the uncoordinated investment, inflation and foreign ex change crisis, the State Planning Organisation (SPO) was set up in 1960 and the planning principle was included the 1961 Constitution. So, the planning period has begun in Turkey, Turkish development plans are- Vill T prepared for five-yc.r periods as a part of perspective plans covering 15 years or more. Si ice I960 the SPO has designed 2 perspective plans and 4 five-year plans. The targets to be achieved in the subsequent 15 years were deter mined in the First Perspective Plan (FPP, 1963-1977). These targets were: (a) Achieving a 7 per cent growth rate (b) Solving the unemployment problem, (c) Training a sufficient number of high level personnel in all fields (d) Obtaining a balance in external payments (e) Improving income distribution between houses and regions. In the light of these targets First and Second Five-Year Plans were implemented successfuly (1963-1973). Three important trends charac terize this period: (a) A relative stabilization of prices (b) The per manent balance of trade deficit (c) Rapid industrialization and high income growth. But during the preparation of the Third Five-Year Plan (1973-1977) which was the last segment of the FPP_, a need was felt to prepare a new perspective plan covering the years 1973-1995. The main objective of this plan is to raise the per capita income in 1995 to the level of Italy in 1970 through acccelareted industrialisation while decreasing dependence on foreign capital. The other targets were quite similar to the FPP, Third Five-Year Plan was prepared and implemented in the light of new perspective plan. But after the implementation of 3 five-year plans the Turkish economy is in the deepest economic crisis of the Republican Era. At the beginning of the Fourth Five-Year Plan, Turkey has reached very high rate of inflation, the highest trade deficit ever reached in the history of the economy, very high unemployment figures and the unequal income distribution. This crisis is the outcome of the accumulated effects of the mis guided economic policies pursued in the past and Turkey's inordinately delayed policy response to the oil shock of the mid 1970' s. Planning mechanism had also a significant contribution to the present crisis. In Turke> import substitution and industrialisation are mixed such a degree that no industrialisation could have taken place if a policy of import substitution had not been adopted. Under various incentives, over valued currency and heavy protection, inward looking industrialisation had strenghtened and planning mechanism had encouraged this approach. Planning approach was also the main source of the inflation. Because, the SPO implemented the inflationary-gap analysis in the planning. So the planning activities could not be the remedies of the problems of Turkey but had become part of the problem itself. For these reasons the purpose of this thesis is to investigate the effects of the Turkish industrialisation policy and the planning approach to the problems of Turkey faced in the late 1970' s and to determine some remedies. Planning and development relationship, why developing countries need development planning, and what the differences of planning activities are capitalist and socialist countries are mentioned briefly in chapter one. In chapter two, Turkish economic policy implemented in the 1923- 1960 period is mentioned briefly. In chapter three, targets, planned and actual values of txco per spective plans and 4 five-year plans and the economic policies implex mented in the 1960-1980 period are given. The effects of the import substituting industrialisation policy, over valued currency, foreign trade regimes, rents, inflation, workers' remittances, agriculture and industry relationships on the economic crisis of Turkey in the late 1970' s are investigated in chapter four. First a critical evaluation of planning approach in Turkey and the shortcomings of this approach are mentioned, then the need of new planning approach is determined and some propositions are made for next years in chapter five. la the appendix, macro models of Turkish plans and the most ele gant studies made about Turkey by Turks and foreigners are given.