Türkiye elektrik enerjisi talep tarafı esneklik analizi
Analysis of the demand side flexibitiy in Turkish power system
Yazar: MEHTAP ALPER SAĞLAM
Danışman: PROF. DR. ÖNDER GÜLER
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü / Enerji Bilim ve Teknoloji Ana Bilim Dalı / Enerji Bilim ve Teknoloji Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2022
Konu: Enerji = Energy
Dizin: Elektrik enerjisi = Electrical energy ; Esneklik = Flexibility ; Talep fiyat esnekliği = Demand price flexible

Özet:
İklim değişikliği ile mücadelenin küresel ölçekte önem kazandığı günümüzde; sera gazı salınımına yol açan fosil yakıtlara dayalı enerji üretim politikalarından vazgeçilmekte ve enerji talebinin sera gazları bakımından temiz olan yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarından karşılanması öncelik kazanmaktadır. Öte yandan, merkezi üretim yerine değişken ve dağıtık üretimin yaygınlaşması, şebekede esneklik ihtiyacının artmasına ve şebeke işletiminde mevcut durumda faydalanılan esneklik araçlarının yetersiz kalmasına yol açmaktadır. Sosyal refah düzeyi bakımından gelişmiş olan ülkeler, şebekelerde artan esneklik ihtiyacını karşılamak üzere enerji depolama sistemleri, talep tarafı katılımı ve benzeri yeni esneklik çözümlerini hayata geçirmekte ve piyasa yapılarını buna göre şekillendirilmektedir.
Bu tez çalışması kapsamında, yatırım maliyetinin sıfıra yakın olması, uygulama kolaylığı ve enerji verimliliğine katkı sağlaması sayesinde yeni esneklik seçenekleri arasında ön plana çıkan talep tarafı katılımı; geçmişten günümüze kadar olan gelişim süreci, uygulama türleri, piyasa modelleri ve yurt dışı örnekleri çerçevesinde kapsamlı bir biçimde ele alınmaktadır. Ayrıca, Türkiye açısından talep tarafı katılımının mevcut durumunun; ulusal stratejiler, yasal altyapı ve piyasaya erişim bakımından değerlendirmesine yer verilmektedir. Bunun yanı sıra, talep tarafı esnekliğinin ölçülmesinde referans alınan temel tüketim değerinin belirlenmesine ilişkin yöntemler araştırılarak, talep tarafı için kurgulanan piyasa veya program yapısına uygun bir yöntemin belirlenebilmesi için esas alınması gereken temel ilkeler ve parametreler üzerinde durulmaktadır.
Son olarak, ülkemizde 2021 yılı itibarıyla yan hizmetler piyasasında devreye alınmış olan talep tarafı yedeği hizmeti kapsamında düzenlenen temel tüketim değerinin belirlenmesine ilişkin metodoloji incelenerek söz konusu yöntemin tüketim tahmin performansı, örnek tüketim tesislerinin geçmiş tüketim verilerinden faydalanılarak analiz edilmektedir. Ayrıca, ülkemizdeki metodoloji ile tez çalışması kapsamında araştırılan yurtdışı uygulamalarında kullanılan geçmiş tüketim verilerine dayalı temel tüketim değeri belirleme yöntemleri kıyaslanarak; yurtdışı örneklerinde sıklıkla faydalanılan gün içi düzeltme yöntemleri incelenmektedir. Bu çerçevede, talep tarafı yedeği hizmeti kapsamında, hizmetin niteliklerine uygun bir gün içi düzeltme katsayısı belirlenerek mevcut metodolojiye eklenmekte ve seçilen örnek tüketim tesisleri için metodolojinin tahmin performansına ilişkin analizler, düzeltme katsayısını da içerecek şekilde tekrar edilmektedir. Sonuç kısmında ise, mevcut metodolojinin ve düzeltme katsayısı eklenen metodolojinin tahmin performansına ilişkin analiz sonuçları karşılaştırılmak suretiyle ülkemizde kurgulanan temel tüketim değeri belirleme metodolojisinin iyileştirilmesine ilişkin öneriler sunulmakta ve günümüzün değişen dinamikleri karşısında ulusal elektrik şebekemizde arz güvenliğini sürdürülebilir kılmak üzere esneklik seçeneklerinden faydalanama konusunda geleceğe yönelik değerlendirmelere yer ver verilmektedir.

Abstract:
By the end of the twentieth century, with the effects of climate change emerging around the world; in order to cope with the aforementioned threat, energy production based on fossil fuels that cause greenhouse gas emissions has been left behind, and energy production policies based on renewable energy sources that are clean in terms of greenhouse gases have gained importance on a global scale. These strategies, based on increasing renewable energy-based production, render the traditional structure of the energy sector dysfunctional and require a comprehensive transformation process in all areas.
Moreover; the digitalization process, which has accelerated in the energy sector, especially with the advances in information and communication technologies in the last two decades; changes the business approach and brings innovative practices at all stages of the energy sector, including generation, transmission, distribution and consumption. The said innovative applications which cover smart grids, generating consumers, energy storage systems, virtual power plants, blockchain-based supply and trade platforms, electric vehicles, charging stations and many similar technologies, requires a new understanding and a comprehensive transformation process in the energy sector.
While the flexibility needs of grids in electrical systems have traditionally been met by utilizing the flexibility of conventional generation facilities, which are capable of rapidly increasing or decreasing their generation in response to real-time instructions by grid operators; along with the mentioned transformation process and concrete targets of increase in the share of wind and solar-based energy sources in today's electricity grids, the need for flexibility in grids is increasing in order to manage the variability in these resources. and new flexibility options gain importance.
In other words, the wide spread of variable and distributed generation instead of centralized generation leads to the inadequacy of the flexibility tools currently used in grid operation and in order to benefit from renewable energy sources in the most efficient way and to utilize the electrical energy based on these sources at the optimum level according to the demand in the network, the networks should be strengthened by diversifying the flexibility options.
Countries that are developed in terms of social welfare are implementing new flexibility solutions such as battery storage systems and demand side management to meet the increasing flexibility needs in electricity networks and their market structures are shaped accordingly as well as the regulatory framework.
Turkey also have concrete regulatory goals to strengthen the flexibility tools in line with national targets to increase the share of renewable energy in the energy mix, by means of demand-side participation, energy storage, provision of grid support services by distributed energy sources and relevant measures, and by increasing the ability of the grid to balance variable generation. These regulatory measures of diversifying flexibility instruments are targeted at increasing energy efficiency, accelerating the transition to clean energy and digitizing the grid, as well as integrating variable renewable energy into the grid.
In this context, as of 2021, the ancillary services market in Turkey has been opened to the participation of industrial consumers, and the system operator has allowed to procure a new ancillary service referred to as "Demand Side Reserve" service in order to benefit from the flexibility of large industrial consumers for management of peak load and ensure the stability of frequency in the transmission network. Moreover, a new regulation for energy storage systems, which regulates the procedures for establishment and running of grid scale storage systems including stand alone ones which will serve to the network as a new flexibility resource, was entered into force at 2021.
Within the scope of this thesis, demand-side flexibility, which stands out among other solutions with its almost zero investment cost, and its contribution to the reduction of energy efficiency and carbon footprint; is comprehensively discussed within the framework of its conceptual development, application types, market models and examples from abroad. Moreover, the methods of calculating the baseline consumption value to be used in the measurement of demand side flexibility, which is critical for the successful execution of demand-side flexibility programs, are examined in depth.
In line with the mentioned comprehensive literature review, demand side flexibility options evaluated for Turkey, in terms of national energy policy, national priorities on energy sector, national targets linked with renewable energy integration, distdibuted generation and smart grid applications, existing market structure, network infrastructure and applicable practices.
In addition, the demand side reserve service, which came into force as of 2021, is examined in detail, including eligibility criteria, procurement procedures, application method, types of instructions, payment methods, sanctions, monitoring of the service as well as the defined baseline calculation methodology for measurement of the provided flexibility service. Besides, the performance of the mentioned baseline methodology for determining the base consumption value, which needs to be used by the system operator as a reference in measuring the flexibility, is analyzed in terms of accuracy.
Within the scope of the analyzes carried out for this purpose, the real consumption data of large-powered industrial facilities connected to the transmission system were used. In addition, a same day adjustment factor is proposed to improve the estimation performance of the current methodology, similar to the intraday adjustment methods that were researched within the framework of the literature review and applied abroad.
All analyzes regarding the forecast performance of the methodology were repeated to include the intraday adjustment factor. Based on the findings obtained as a result of the analysis studies, evaluations and suggestions regarding the application of the intraday adjustment factor to the baseline determination methodology regulated in our country are presented.
Finally, highlighting that it is inevitable to benefit from demand-side flexibility in order to increase energy production based on renewable resources, to achieve our national targets for energy efficiency and decarbonization, to operate our national transmission and distribution networks safely, and to make energy supply security sustainable; comprehensive evaluations are made for the short, medum and long term regarding the expansion and diversification of market and program options open to the participation of consumers in order to benefit from the flexibility of consumers, just like a source of supply.