OECD ülkelerinin insani gelişmişlik performanslarının veri zarflama analiziyle değerlendirilmesi
Evaluating the human development performance of OECD countries via data envelopment analysis
Yazar: HAKAN KILIÇ
Danışman: DOÇ. DR. ÖZGÜR KABAK
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Endüstri Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2017
Konu: Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği = Industrial and Industrial Engineering
Dizin: Uluslararası rekabet = International competition ; Veri zarflama analizi = Data envelopment analysis ; İnsani gelişmişlik endeksi = Human development index

Özet:
İnsani gelişimin ana kaynaklarından biri olan üretkenlik veya rekabetçilik bir ülkede uygun bir şekilde yönetiliyorsa, orada insan refah seviyesinin yüksek olması beklenmektedir. Türkiye'nin diğer 34 ülkeyle birlikte üyesi olduğu Ekonomik Kalkınma ve İşbirliği Örgütü'nün (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD) misyonu "insanların ekonomik ve sosyal refahını geliştirecek politikaları desteklemek"tir. Bu çalışmada, OECD üyesi ülkelerin örgütün misyonu kapsamında belirli bir zaman aralığında rekabetçiliklerini ne derece insani gelişmişlik seviyesine dönüştürebildikleri irdelenmektedir. Rekabetçiliğin insani gelişmişliğe dönüşümünün verimliliği konusunda yazında çok az çalışma vardır ve de bu çalışmalar arasından hiçbiri bir zaman aralığını ele almamakta, sadece belirli bir yıla odaklanmaktadırlar. Yapılan araştırmanın benzersizliği, çok az irdelenen bu konunun belirli zaman aralığı göz önünde bulundurularak incelenmesinden kaynaklanmaktadır.
Bu kapsamda, OECD mensubu toplam 35 ülke olmak üzere 2008-2009'daki ekonomik kriz göz önünde bulundurularak; tüm üyelerin 2010-2014 yıllarında rekabetçiliklerini insani gelişmişlik seviyesine dönüştürme performansları pencereli veri zarflama analiziyle değerlendirilmiştir. Modele girdi olarak rekabetçilikle ilişkili Dünya Ekonomik Forumu'nun oluşturduğu yıllık Küresel Rekabetçilik Raporlarının alt endeksleri olan temel gereksinimler (basic requirements), verimlilik artırıcılar (efficiency enhancers), yenilikçilik ve ilericilik etkenleri (innovation and sophistication factors) kullanılmıştır. Çıktı olarak ise, insani gelişmişlikle alakalı Birleşmiş Milletler Gelişim Programı'nın yıllık yayınladığı İnsani Gelişmişlik Endeksi'nin alt endeksleri olan sağlık endeksi, eğitim endeksi, gelir endeksinden faydalanılmıştır. Bu panel verisiyle performansın zaman içerisindeki değişimini incelemek adına, çıktı doğrultulu pencereli Charnes, Cooper, Rhodes (CCR) modeli üzerinden ilerlenmiştir. Modelin doğruluğunu irdelemek için değişkenlerin ve verimli karar verme birimlerinin çıkarılması yöntemleri kullanılmış, bulgulardan modelin sağlam olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Model sonuçlarına göre ülkelerin büyük bir çoğunluğunun üretkenliğini insan refahına dönüştürmede verimsiz olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. 2010 yılında sadece Letonya ve Yunanistan, 2011-2012 yıllarında sadece Yunanistan, 2013 yılında sadece Slovenya ve Yunanistan'ın verimli olduğu tespit edilmiş, 2014 yılı için verimli herhangi bir ülke bulunamamıştır. Performans olarak başı çeken ülkeler Yunanistan, Slovenya, İtalya, Slovakya ve Lüksemburg'dur. Son sıralarda yer alan ülkeler ise İngiltere, Kanada ve Japonya'dır. Türkiye, 2010 ve 2011'de OECD ülkelerine kıyasla ortalama performans sergilerken, 2012'de ortalama altına düşmüş ve ilerleyen senelerde konumu neredeyse sabit kalmıştır.
OECD bünyesinde üretkenlik seviyesi bakımından ve insani gelişmişlik açısından ortalama üstü ve sıralamaların başını çeken ülkelerin; bu örgüt içerisinde üretkenlik seviyesi ortalama veya ortalama altı ve insan refahı ortalama veya ortalama altı olan ülkelere karşın performansları düşük çıkmıştır. Bu tip rekabetçiliği ve insani gelişmişliği yüksek ülkelerin doyuma ulaştığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Ayrıca incelenen 2010-2014 dönemi içerisinde OECD ülkeleri arasında rekabetçiliği insani gelişmişliğe dönüştürme bağlamında büyük çaplı bir değişimin söz konusu olmadığı gözlemlenmiştir.

Abstract:
It is expected that the level of human welfare will be high if one of the main sources of human development, the country's productivity or competitiveness is properly managed. The mission of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), where Turkey is a member with other 34 countries, is "to promote policies that will improve the economic and social well-being of people around the world". This study examines the extent to which OECD member countries can transform their competitiveness into higher levels of human development in regards to the organization's mission during a certain time period. There are very few studies focusing on the transformation efficiency of competitiveness to human development. Additionally, among these studies none of them consider a time period rather they are all focused on an exact year. Thus, this research's originality lies in examining this scarcely studied topic within a specific time period.

In this context, all the OECD members' performance was evaluated considering the years 2010-2014 after the economic crisis in 2008-2009 via data envelopment analysis with window analysis. Related to competitiveness; basic requirements, efficiency enhancers, innovation and sophistication factors are the model's inputs, which are sub-indices of the Global Competitiveness Index provided in World Economic Forum's annual Global Competitiveness Reports. On the other hand in regards to human development education index, health index and income index are the model's outputs, which are sub-indices of the Human Development Index provided in United Nation Development Programme's annual Human Development Reports.

Considering the panel data applications in data envelopment analysis the literature consists of studies which examines the years one by one, explores by averaging the values of different years, uses Malmquist index, utilizes window analysis, applies windowed Malmquist index, deals with multilevel data envelopment analysis methods such as network structured data envelopment analysis. According to Cook and Seiford (2009) significant interactions between the periods are lost in the process by taking the years account one by one. Also, Hwang et al. (2016) state that averaging the values within the years in the time period results in computing some of the otherwise inefficient decision making units efficient. Thus, these two methods are left out due to their unsatisfactory outcomes. According to Sueyoshi and Goto (2015) Malmquist index assumes that there is always a technological change forwards. The study's time period consists of 5 years. Due to this relatively short span of time this method might provide undesirable outcomes and that is why it was not used as well. Sueyoshi and Aoki (2001) developed the window Malmquist analysis method. The literature was extensively reviewed in order to study this method in detail. However, it was found that there were almost no studies utilizing this method. As such this method was not applied as there were not enough studies to base upon. According to Liu et al. (2016a) multilevel data envelopment analysis methods are still at the development stage and there is no consensus regarding the methodology. Additionally, this situation was further apparent with the review of literature as the authors in this specific field generally provided new methods after new methods with no study tackling the issue of which method would be suitable for a specific problem. For these reasons this method was left out. On the other hand, Sueyoshi and Goto (2015) state the window analysis method cannot separate the performance to its subparts like the Malmquist index, but it is able to provide the changes in the performance whether it is positive, negative or stagnant based on the windows. All these in mind, the window analysis method was utilized.

This study's objective is to explore which countries are making good use of their competitiveness to improve their human development. Thus, from the aspect of the data envelopment analysis model, the aim is not to reduce the input which is competitiveness but to increase the output, human development. That is why; an output-oriented model is used in this study.
Sueyoshi and Sekitani (2009) examined the radial and non-radial data envelopment analysis models in their study in regards to the various features of the efficiency outcomes and they mathematically proved and concluded that among these models only Charnes, Cooper, Rhodes (CCR) model or constant returns to scale model is fit to investigate the efficiency changes in time. For this reason CCR model was utilized in this study.
According to Liu et al. (2016a) there is no consensus on the ranking of the decision making units' efficiency scores and there are many issues still waiting to be solved. Alcaraz et al. (2013) also stated that different efficiency score ranking methods provide different outcomes some of which being not desirable. Additionally, they provided a solution to this issue by proposing the range ranking method. As this method were to result in too many variables and constraints, which GAMS demo is not able to handle, range ranking method could not be used in this study. Instead directly ranking method which is used in window analysis data envelopment analysis applications in the literature was utilized to rank the performances of the countries (Liu et al, 2016b; Santana et al, 2014; Shawtari et al, 2015).
In summary, to evaluate the performance with the panel data at hand output-oriented Charnes, Cooper, Rhodes (CCR) model with window analysis is used. Also, to test the model variables were left out and also jack-knifing method was utilized. As a result the model was found robust.

According to the results of the proposed model, in general it has been observed that the majority of countries are ineffective in transforming their competitiveness to higher levels of human development. In 2010 only Latvia and Greece, in 2011-2012 only Greece, in 2013 only Greece and Slovenia have been found to be efficient. Additionally, there were no efficient countries in the 2014 period. Leading countries with high performance are Greece, Slovenia, Italy, Slovakia and Luxembourg. United Kingdom, Canada and Japan show the lowest performances. On the other hand, in comparison to OECD countries Turkey showed a mediocre performance in 2010-2011, fell below average in 2012 and remained stagnant in the following years.
The performance of OECD countries e.g. (Their overall performance score average for 2010-2014 is given) England 0.81, Italy 0.98, Canada 0.82, Hungary 0.92, Slovak Republic 0.95, Germany 0.85; which have relatively high levels of competitiveness and human development are lower in comparison to the countries with average or below average level of competitiveness and average or below average level of human development (These averages are exclusive to OECD countries). It is concluded that countries with high levels of competitiveness and human development have reached the saturation point. Also, it has been observed that in the 2010-2014 time period there has been no radical change in the OECD countries' performance of transforming their competitiveness to human development.
For a future work, Malmquist index can be utilized with a longer period of time to investigate the performances of countries regarding the transformation of their competitiveness to human development. Also, in order to study the interactions between the years thoroughly network structured data envelopment analysis methods can be used. In the current study due to tool restrictions the range ranking method provided by Alcaraz et al. (2013) could not be used, but it can be adopted in the future works in order to rank the efficiency scores. On the other hand, the relationship between competitiveness and human development might be evaluated by considering a specific time lag between the two concepts.