Türkiye'nin bölgelerarası farklılıklarına demografik geçiş kuramı çerçevesinden bir bakış
A look to interregional differences of Turkey in terms of demographic transition theory
Yazar: MELEK KURTAR
Danışman: PROF. DR. GÜLDEN ERKUT
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Şehir ve Bölge Planlama Ana Bilim Dalı / Bölge Planlama Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2012
Konu: Şehircilik ve Bölge Planlama = Urban and Regional Planning
Dizin: Demografi = Demography ; Demografik özellikler = Demographic characteristics ; Nüfus = Population ; Nüfus artışı = Population growth ; Nüfus politikaları = Population policies ; Nüfus sayımı 1927 = Census 1927

Özet:
Türkiye'nin nüfus yapısı giderek gelişmiş ülkelerinkine benzemeye başlamıştır. Türkiye'nin demografik değişim sürecini başlatan doğurganlık oranının düşmesi sadece nüfus artış hızının yavaşlamasına neden olmamakta, aynı zamanda nüfusun yapısında da çok ciddi değişimlere yol açmaktadır.Demografik geçiş teorisi yüksek doğurganlık ve yüksek ölüm oranlarının hüküm sürdüğü bir durumdan ,doğumların bilinçli olarak kontrol edildiği ve ölüm oranlarının düşmüş olduğu yeni bir duruma geçişi ifade etmektedir. Yapılan araştırmalar temel olarak Türkiye'nin sürekli büyüyen ve genç nüfus yapısının dönüşüme uğradığını,nüfusun giderek yaşlandığını göstermektedir.Bütününde giderek yaşlanan bir nüfus yapısına sahip olan Türkiye'nin bazı bölgeleri ilk aşamada iken bazı bölgeleri ikinci aşamada ,bazı bölgeleri üçüncü aşamada ,bazıları ise son geçiş aşamasındadırlar.'Bölgeleri arasında belirgin farklar gösteren Türkiye ,Demografik Geçiş Sürecinde de homojen bir yapı izlemeyecektir' hipotezi ile yola çıkan bu çalışma bu farklı geçiş aşamalarına sahip bölgeleri tespit edecektir.Ayrıca demografik geçiş sürecinin Türkiye'de bölgelerarasında farklılaştığına ulaşarak, bu farklı bölgeler için olası riskler ve fırsatlar çeşitli planlama önerileri ile şehir ve bölge planlama disiplini açısından irdelenecektir. Demografik değişimin sunduğu fırsatlardan faydalanabilmek ve yol açtığı risklerden korunabilmek, doğru zamanda doğru politikaların doğru bölgelere uygulanması ile mümkün olacaktır. Türkiye'deki demografik dönüşüm sürecini bölgeler düzeyinde ele alıp, her bir bölge için muhtemel etkilerini irdeleyen bu çalışma,Türkiye'de yaşanacak olan demografik gelişmelerin ,yöneticilere, karar verme aşamasında nasıl yardımcı olabileceğine ışık tutacaktır.Ayrıca, bu çalışma bölgelerin nüfus olarak nereye gittiklerini görmeleri açısından ,demografik modellerin neresinde olduklarını görerek geleceği planlamaları açısından önemlidir.Yapılan araştırmalarda bugüne kadar yaşanan nüfusla ilgili değişimlerin ağırlıklı olarak geçmişte uygulanan nüfus politikalarından kaynaklanmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.Nüfus artışını sağlamak amaçlı belirlenen politikalar, nüfusu arttırmada başarılı olmadığı gibi ,nüfus artışını sınırlandırmaya yönelik belirlenen politikalar da nüfus artış hızını azaltmada başarılı olmamışlardır.Bugüne kadar nüfus hep bağımlı değişken olarak ele alınmış ve nüfusa yönelik müdahaleler yapılmıştır.Bu çalışmada nüfus bağımsız bir değişken olarak ele alınmış ve illerin yada bölgelerin mevcut yada olası nüfus yapısına ve özelliklerine göre planlama müdahalelerin yapılmasının gerekliliği ele alınmıştır.

Abstract:
Demographic structure of Turkey have started to resemble developed countries. Decreasing fertility rate which triggered Turkey?s process of demographic change not only caused the decreasing population growth rate but also caused critical changes in population structure. So this situation will cause many problem but on the other hand will provide many advantages. If politica makers see the risks and advantages before and make politics according to this chaning structures of population then people can be protected from negative effects of this demographic transition theory.Demographic transition theory states transition from high fertility rate and high mortality rate to conscious controlled birth and low mortality rate. This theory was firstly introduced by Warren Thompson at 1929 via looking the experiences of European countries population structure. The theory has four stages and all stages has unique demographic, social and cultural characteristics. At first stage birt and death rates are high, at second stage death rates begin to decrase but birth rates are high, at third stage birth rates begin to decrease like death rates and at final stage both birth and death rates are counciously controlled by people.There is a relationship between the modernization and stages of the theory. Countries or cities go from first stage to fourh stage so as the same they go from primative to modern. While countries at first stage encounter high young population problems, countries at second stage encounter problems about high population growth rates. Also countries at four stage encounter problems about high old population. So given planning decisions for first stage should be different from second, third and fourt stage and like this decisions for second stage should be different from other stages.Researchers show that Turkey?s continously growing and young population structure has changed and population has increasingly aged. In general Turkey has aging population structure , some regions of Turkey is first stage, some of them is second, some of them is third and some of them is last transition period. This study will set out with the hypothesis ?Turkey which has distinct differences between regions, will also not show a homogenous structure in Demographic Transition Period. Also this study will also determine oppurtunity and risks in city and regional planning dicipline by reaching differentiation of Turkey?s between regions.All demographic indicators -which were mentioned one by one in the thesis- show that the world population as a whole become older population strucure this means world is getting older. Median age value is increasing and according to researches will go on incerasing. Life expectancy is increasing and will go on incerasing like median age. Young dependency ratio other means young population rate is decreasing and will go on decreasing. As a whole the demographic table is like this but of course there are undeveloped, developing and developed countries in the world. So the transition process or demographic structure is different from each other. For example while some countries completed their transition process which are developed countries, some countries can not enter transition process which are undeveloped countries.Turkey is the category of developing countries so it has not completed the transition process yet. Turkey is at final step now and according to projections it will complete this process at the year of 2050 via reaching 96 million people. After the final stage population growth rate will be stable like population size.Between the years 1923-1955, Turkey was at first stage. At this period Turkey?s population size was low due to war period before, also population growht rate was very low. Because families were not together due to again war period. Moreover epidemic diseases were very high so mortality rate and especially child mortality rate was very high and life expectancy was very low. Industrialization was very low level. At second stage Turkey experienced between the years 1955-1985. Due to technological developments and developments at health sectors life standarts increased. Thus mortality rates began to decrase but birth rates still high so at this period population growth rate increased the other words population size increased. Also government took precausions via making strict policies to increase population growth rate. Between the years 1985-2000 Turkey was at third stage. At this stage mortality rate was low and together it birth rate was low. After the year 2000 Turkey entered to final stage.According to the projections Tukey will complete the fianl stage 2050 and population growth rate and population size will be stable. Today Turkey population is 73.722.988 people. Projections show that this value will increase to 73 for men and 79 for women at the end of the final demographic transiton stage of Turkey. Also researchers claims that Turkey population will be 96 million and after the size will be stable at this level.To take advantages of demographic change and to avoid risks , will be possible with implementing accurate politics in accurate time. The study that will take demographic transition in level of regions and examine possible effects for each region, will set light to how demographic changes can help to managers while giving desicions. Also this study is important since to show regions how their future will be and to plan of regions the future by seeing where they take place in demographic models.At second stage, population growth rate is very high so the places at second stage should be take precausions to prevent squatter housing for following years. On the other hand, countries at final steps have low population growth rate so they should rehabilitate existing housing stock or change functions according to needs of young people instead of building new housing areas. Also in education system, for first stage population at school ages are very high so enough number of school for needs of students is very important. To build school for the needs is the first priority while making policies for these areas. But for final stage, students number do not increase reverse it, the number of students decrese. So building new school areas is not logical or efficient politic for places at final steps. Instead of increasing number of school increasing the quality of existing school buildgs is more efficient. Also increasing the quality of equipment, teachers etc? can be the other politics for the final stage.According to researches, changes about population are not related with politics which were applied for changing the population growth rate. Between the years 1923-1965 population politics are about for increasing the population growth rate on the other hand after the years of 1965 population politics are about for decreasing the population growth rate. Both politics for increasing the population growth rate and decreasing the population growth rate were unsuccessfull. Until now population is always seen as dependent variable but population should be seen as independent variable instead of dependent variable.Two alternatives can be mentioned about population politics. First one is to reverse or decelerate unwanted demographic changes. Second one is to accept inevitable consequences of demographic transition theory and making politics according to this inevitable consequences. Due to all mentioned the previous paragraph, the second politics option is more logical. So the question should be shifted from  which demographic structure will be applied for regions or cities  to  which politics will be aplied for existing demographic structure Thus this thesis study focused on it. In this way, this thesis study expose the differentiated regions of Turkey in terms of demographic transition theory to make right decisions for right places according to their demographic structures.The consequences of this thesis study will help politica makers via showing different regions of Turkey in terms of demographic transiton theory. Defining the regions at different stages means that defining the different demographic characteristics of the regions existing situations and future situations. So every region has unique properties, it shoul not be forgotten and different characteristics of the regions should be considered while taking decisions.