Doğal gaz ticaret merkezlerinde fiyat oluşumlarının analizi: Türkiye için bir değerlendirme
An analysis of the natural gas pricing in natural gas hubs: an evaluation for Turkey
Yazar: HAKAN NALBANT
Danışman: PROF. DR. MEHMET ÖZGÜR KAYALICA
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Enerji Enstitüsü / Enerji Bilim ve Teknoloji Ana Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2018
Konu: Enerji = Energy

Özet:
Dünyada doğal gaz kullanım ihtiyacı her geçen gün artmaktadır. Bu talebi karşılamak için ülkeler aynı zamanda da stratejik bir kaynak haline gelen bu ürünün ticaretini gerçekleştirebilmek için aktif ilişkiler yürütmektedir.
Doğal gazda talebin çok fazla ülke tarafından oluşturulması ve arzın ise sınırlı sayıda ülkeler tarafından sunulması, ticaretin gerçekleştirildiği piyasalar arasında farklı yapıların oluşmasına sebebiyet vermiştir. Bu yapıların üzerinde durduğu en önemli nokta da gazın nasıl fiyatlandırılacağı olmuştur.
Doğal gaz kullanımına ilk başlandığında nasıl değer biçileceği bilinemediği için petrol ürünlerinin fiyatlarıyla ilişkilendirilmiştir. Ancak günümüze gelindikçe artan büyük gaz talebi, gazın arz ve talep noktaları tarafından çok iyi tanınmasını sağlamıştır. Bu durum da petrole dayalı fiyatlandırma yaklaşımını yetersiz kılmaktadır. Bu nedenle başta ABD ve Kuzey Avrupa ülkelerinde olmak üzere gazın değerinin ölçümlenmesinde ticaret merkezleri oluşturulmaya başlanmıştır ve doğal gazın fiyatları bu merkezlerde gerçekleştirilen ticari faaliyetlerin bir sonucu olarak arz ve talep taraflarının katılımıyla belirlenmektedir.
Türkiye ise doğal gaz konusunda ithalat bağımlısı bir ülkedir. İhtiyaç duyduğu gaz arzını petrole dayalı uzun vadeli kontratlarla sağlamaktadır. Türkiye'nin zengin doğal gaz rezervlerinin yer aldığı coğrafyaya yakın olması, büyüyen ekonomisiyle artan iç talebi ve başta Avrupa olmak üzere gaz ihtiyacı olan ülkelere jeopolitik konumu itibariyle uzak olmaması, Türkiye'nin arz ve talep taraflarını birleştirici bir doğal gaz ticaret merkezi olma konumuna ulaşabilmesi için başlıca yeterli nedenler olarak görülmektedir.
Bu çalışmada dünyadaki doğal gaz ticaret yapıları ve fiyat oluşumları incelenmiştir. Ardından Türkiye'nin mevcut piyasa yapısı ele alınmıştır. Hem bu mevcut yapıda gerçekleşen gaz fiyatlarının yapısına odaklanılmış hem de bir doğal gaz ticaret merkezi olma senaryosu ile fiyat analizleri yapılarak 2 ana senaryo tanımlanmıştır. Her iki durum içinde doğal gaz fiyatlarının 2020 yılı sonuna kadar aylık bazda tahminleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu çalışmaların yapılmasında da EViews 9.0 paket programı kullanılmıştır.
Analizlerde Türkiye'nin 2011 yılından itibaren ithalatını gerçekleştirdiği gazın fiyatı ve ticaret merkezi olma senaryosunda yer verilen faktörlerin geçmiş yıllardaki değerleri toplanmıştır. Daha sonra bu değişkenlerin tamamı ilgili senaryolar kapsamında sırasıyla otoregresif entegre hareketli ortalama (ARIMA), eşbütünleşme analizi, vektör otoregresif (VAR) analiz ve yapay sinir ağları kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar açısından da 2020 yılı sonunda ARIMA ve VAR analizleriyle gaz fiyatlarının 12 $/MWh seviyelerinde, yapay sinir ağları yönteminin sonucuna göre ise yaklaşık 23 $/MWh seviyesinde olabileceği hesaplanmıştır.
Çalışmanın sonunda da Türkiye'nin hem stratejik hem de jeopolitik açıdan ticaret merkezi olmasının ne denli önemli olduğu gerekçeleriyle dile getirilerek elde edilen fiyat tahmin sonuçları tüm detayları ile irdelenmiştir.

Abstract:
In the world, coal dominated as a primary energy source in the 1800s. But the beginning of the oil era as a replacement product of coal, especially by the end of the 19th century, has also affected the balances of energy policies. After 1950s, this trend gained another dimension as natural gas exploration and utilization became widespread in the following years. The development of gas usage area and the increasing amount of proven supply reserves in the world have made this source an important substitute for oil and its derivatives. Hence, natural gas plays a more strategic and valuable role in the planning of the world's energy resources.
The need to use natural gas in the world is increasing day by day. In order to meet this demand, countries actively try to have strong relationships for trade of this product, which has become a strategic commodity at the same time. 
With the advancing technology and increasing demand, the discovery of new fields has increased, while at the same time the efficiency of resource extraction has been increasing. However, even if the most efficient techniques are used, it is obvious that these resources will not be endless and will be run out due to demand increase.
The demand of natural gas by many countries and the supply of natural gas by a limited number of countries have caused different structures between the markets in which the trade is being carried out. The most important point on these structures is how to price the gas. In addition to the physical challenges for natural gas extracting and transportation, pricing mechanisms, which are the economic backbone of trade, generally include prices set by the market regulator, prices indexed to other fuels, or prices in the free market.
Since it was not known how to value natural gas when it was first used, it has been formulated with prices of petroleum products. However, increased gas demand has made the gas well-known from a perspective of supply and demand. This situation makes the petroleum based pricing approach inadequate. For this reason, natural gas hubs have been established in determination of the value of gas, especially in the USA and Northern European countries. Moreover, natural gas prices are determined by the participation of supply and demand sides as a result of the commercial activities carried out in these centers.
A natural gas hub has the property of being a high transaction volume and a single price area of trading which gives access to the existing market players as well as the participant who wants to be included under the same conditions. At a developed gas hub, there are two main markets for transactions. One of them is a spot market where the gas is traded for a limited time in the future, the other one is a futures market where delivery of the natural gas can be carried forward a few years later. The natural gas hubs that enable these commercial activities are divided into two classes as virtual natural gas hubs and physical natural gas hubs according to the physical gathering of the supply of gas at one point.
The development of international natural gas markets is based on the fact that the whole system must be in harmonic structure simultaneously with demand and supplier structures, natural gas potentials and proven reserves. Hence, in natural gas markets, the main factors that have an impact on global markets are also directly influential in the supply and demand side, as well as directly shaping the future of the natural gas market. In general, new pipelines, floating technologies, new LNG capacities, and government policies at the national level are among the key factors that can affect natural gas supply. Strategic actions that affect the natural gas demand and supply in general are based on energy security, economy and environmental policies. Also, the most important factors on the demand side are the economic growth of the countries and the government policies.
With all these factors, there is not a single factor that has a dominant role in the formation of pricing in all natural gas markets. One fact that should not be ignored is the uncertain timing and structure of the changes in the policies affect the development of markets, the nature of gas demand and supply. Because the ambiguities in future strategies are guiding essentially all natural gas forecasting analyzes and affect international commercial activity considerably.
After the 1071 Malazgirt Victory, the doors of Anatolia had been completely opened to the Turkish people, a large geography was ruled for centuries. And, Turkey's present borders as a result of the War of Independence was obtained. Anatolia has served as a bridge among Asia, Africa and Europe by strengthening strategic and economic relations. Moreover, both the Ottoman Empire and Republic of Turkey have been having a word in these regions and playing a critical role with land and sea transportation routes.
There are three main reasons to understand why Turkey has to become a natural gas hub: Turkey's proximity to the geographical area of rich natural gas reserves, increasing domestic demand due to growing economy, and being not far away from the countries that need gas such as European countries.
In Turkey, the share of natural gas power plants in electricity generation was 37.2% in 2017. Turkey is a country dependent on the import of natural gas. The country could only produce nearly 0.7% of the approximately 54 billion Sm3 gas consumed in 2017. And, it supplies most of the needed gas with long-term contracts based on oil prices.
Energy needs play a very important role in today's global commercial relationships. According to all industry reports, Turkey does not have any significant reserves of fossil fuels. However, the same reports say that Turkey's neighbors have the largest reserves such as Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, Turkmenistan, Qatar, and the other middle east countries. The fact that European countries do not have many proven rich reserves is a serious indication. These gas reserves, concentrated in Asia, the Middle East and Russia, may need to be transferred to the West. Hence, Turkey has a very inportant geopolitical position. The strategic steps to be taken when global developments are considered, especially the 2023, 2053 and 2071 targets of Turkey, will have a very critical importance. The growing economic structure of Turkey will also increase the energy need. An important part of this need is addressed to natural gas resources. Considering Europe's demand projection, it is crucial that gas is supplied to this region, which is the nearest market for Turkey, from the supply sources. Europe is also increasing its anticipation of supply security in addition to its need of natural gas. Hence, Turkey with the strong steps in the direction of its policy should try to be an important country in the natural gas trading system in the world.
Development of an active and a deep natural gas hub will be difficult for Turkey in case to be continuing to import natural gas with oil indexed contracts. Additionally, in order to create a reliable price index in Turkey, there must be sufficient quantities of natural gas. Hence, it is very important to provide energy supply security to establish a well functioning pricing system. As a result of this, an energy trading market with the right price axis will make a positive contribution to the increasing trade volume of the country and provide more opportunities for investments in medium-long term energy projects.
In this study, natural gas trade structures and price formation in the world are examined. Then, the current market structure of Turkey is discussed. Two main scenarios have been defined with the scenario of being a natural gas hub as well as focusing on the gas prices is realized in this existing market structure. In both cases, monthly gas prices have been forecasted by the end of 2020. EViews 9.0 package program is used for these studies.
In the analyzes, realized natural gas prices from January 2011 to the end of 2017 and the past values of the factors included in the scenario of being a hub have been collected. All of those variables are then analyzed by using ARIMA, cointegration analysis, vector autoregressive analysis and artificial neural networks, respectively, in the context of the relevant scenarios. In terms of the obtained results, it is estimated that gas prices can be at the level of 12 $/MWh by ARIMA and VAR and about 23 $/MWh by the artificial neural network (ANN) method at the end of 2020.
At the end of the study, price forecast results are deeply analyzed by emphasizing on the critical importance of Turkey being a natural gas hub in aspects of strategy and geopolitics.