ITE doğal gaz boru hattı projesi Erzurum ili bölgesinde deprem hasar analizi çalışması
Analaysing eartquake damage on ITE natural gas pipeline project in Erzurum district
Yazar: ŞENNUR HAZAL ŞENER
Danışman: DOÇ. DR. HİMMET KARAMAN
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Geomatik Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı / Geomatik Mühendisliği Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2018
Konu: Jeodezi ve Fotogrametri = Geodesy and Photogrammetry
Dizin: Deprem riski = Earthquake risk ; Hasar analizi = Damage analysis ; Sismik hasar = Seismic damage

Özet:
Dünya genelinde son yıllarda yaşanan şiddetli depremler sonucunda, maddi ve manevi
olarak büyük kayıplar yaşanmıştır. Ülkemizin yüz ölçümünün yaklaşık yarısı kadar
olan alanı birince derece deprem kuşağında olduğu için sonuçları çok ağır olan
depremler meydana gelmiştir. Depremlerin yıkıcı etkileri sadece yer üstündeki
yapılara değil, aynı zamanda yer altındaki yapılara da zarar vermektedir. Afet
sonucunda, günlerce susuz veya elektriksiz kalmak afetin diğer olumsuz sonuçlarıyla
birlikte değerlendirildiğinde deprem sonrasında iyileşme süreci zorlaştırır. Yollar,
köprüler, binalar toplum için ne kadar önemliyse, yer altında gömülü olan boru hatları
veya enerji nakil hatları gibi yapılar da insan yaşamında bir o kadar önemlidir.
Deprem tehlikesi açısından ikinci bölgede yer alan Erzurum ilinde aktif fay hatları
bulunmaktadır. Aktif fay hatlarından meydana gelebilecek depremlerin o bölgede boru
hatları üzerinde yaratacağı hasarlar ve kayıp analizleri önceden tahmin edilirse,
depremin olumsuz sonuçları en aza indirgenebilir. Entegre afet yönetiminin aşamaları
ile hazırlıklı olma, zarar azaltma, müdahale ve iyileştirme çalışmaları uygulamaya
konulduğunda hem maddi hem de manevi olarak gelişme sağlanacaktır.
Hasar analizleri için dünya genelinde çok sayıda çalışmalar yapılmış ve çeşitli
yazılımlar geliştirilmiştir. Türkiye için geliştirilen HAZTURK yazılımı, deprem
senaryoları ile deprem hasar tahmini analizi yapmaktadır. Yazılımın veri standartlarına
göre çoğunlukta dataların Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri ile entegreli olduğu görülmektedir.
Çalışma bölgesine uygun azalım ilişkisinin belirlenmesi, zemin (Vs) kayma dalga
hızlarından oluşturulan tehlike haritaları ve bölgedeki sismik aktivitelerin belirlenmesi
ile kayıp analizleri yapılmaktadır.
Bu çalışmada, HAZTURK yazılımı kullanılarak Erzurum bölgesinden geçirilmesi
planlanan ITE doğal gaz boru hattının belirli kilometreleri için deprem hasar haritaları
üretilmiş ve ArcGIS yazılımıyla tamir sayıları hesaplanmıştır. Analiz için gerekli olan
sondaj verileri, yükseklik bilgileri, jeolojik kapsamda bilgiler, belirli kilometreler
aralığında boru hattı gibi veriler Turang Transit Taşımacılık A.Ş. tarafından
sağlanmıştır. Deprem ve fay hatları verileri de çeşitli kaynaklardan elde edilmiştir.
Çalışma bölgesi için elde edilen veriler, HAZTURK yazılımının veri standartlarına
uygun hale getirildikten sonra deprem hasar analizi yapılmıştır.
ITE hattının Kandilli ve Erzurum fay hatlarını kestiği, Pasinler ve Karayazı fay hattına
yakın geçtiği kilometreler tamir sayıları hesaplanmıştır. Çalışmanın sonunda 7,8
şiddetindeki deprem senaryosuna göre bulunan tamir sayıları Kandilli ve Erzurum fay
hattı için eşit bulunmuş, Pasinler ve Karayazı fay hattının bulunduğu bölgede ise
diğerlerinde daha düşük elde edilmiştir. Yani, ITE doğal gaz boru hattını kesen fay
hatları, yakınından geçen fay hatlarına göre daha fazla zarar vereceği sonucu elde
edilmiştir.

Abstract:
Lifelines (water, transportation, telecommunication, gas, power, transportation
networks) have played significant role in human life by providing main requirements
of people. They are engineering products which provide to transfer or delivering liquid,
energy and gas to residential area by pipelines. Each product is very important factors
for proper life. If one of them does not work properly because of any reason, life will
be very difficult for people. When water supplies do not work because of some reasons,
people suffer from being without water for many days. Apart from water, natural gas
pipelines are another important buried line in terms of providing energy to the world.
Also, if some damages happened on natural gas pipelines, consequences can be very
heavy for environment such as explosion. Apart of environmental disaster,
economically problems can occur among repair duration and cost of the gas which
goes away by leaking from the pipeline. Comparison between energy lines (natural
gas, petroleum, etc.) and other pipelines is obvious that energy lines more specific than
the other lines. Because energy sources are in specific regions in the world.
Transferring energy from countries where have many energy sources to the other
countries where need energy has been raised by technologic improvements and
economic growth of countries.
One of the most useful technique to transfer of energy is buried pipeline. Buried
pipelines are safe method to protect them against of above ground disaster. However,
lifelines are in danger because of some damages underground like earthquake which
is one of the most important hazard of natural disaster. The worse effects of
earthquakes are not only on above ground structures but also damage on underground
facilities. Infrastructures are as much important as roads, bridges and buildings for
human beings. Earthquakes bring damage on pipeline by directly like break and leak
or indirectly like landslide and liquefaction. Problems can be sorted by cutting off flow
when pipeline was broken in some parts, high repair cost also considerable damage to
the environment like fire. It can be seen many examples all over the world, pipelines
were destroyed by earthquakes or many destructions caused by hazards. Besides, after
the earthquakes recovery time gets more difficult when supplies have been cut off or
there has been exposed to power outages. That's why recovery and improvement
studies have been done for risky areas to construct long term usage pipelines. A lot of
engineering areas work all together from creating the project to construction progress
on working site to establish enduring pipelines. It should be planned and projected in
detail to be resistance to hazards. Both geology and pipeline materials which extend
as kilometres underground type of material, connection method of pipeline, diameter,
length etc. are also important components to provide long term pipelines.
All over the world, earthquakes have caused significant destructions on people and
environment in the recent years. Since approximately half of the surface area of Turkey
is on first degree seismic zone, great number of earthquakes have occurred which cause
a lot of destructions. Earthquakes happens when any movement occur underground
among the fault line. It causes to spread energy that makes seismic waves to the around.
Ground shaking starts by the seismic waves released.
There are active fault lines in Erzurum where is in second seismic zone in terms of
hazard of earthquakes. If estimation of loss assessment and damages on pipelines due
to active fault lines is investigated before the hazard, negative consequences of
earthquakes can be remarkably minimized. As a result of that, it can be constructed
structures which resist against to earthquakes and can be taken precautions before the
hazard happened. When integrated hazard management steps such as being ready,
damage reduction, intervention and recovering has been applied both, material and
moral improvements will be provided. Even if hazards could not have prevented,
worse effects of hazard can be minimized on pipelines.
The estimation of loss assessment should be done to be ready for future expected
earthquakes. Recently, it has been developed a lot of software and studies to analyse
loss assessment caused by earthquakes all over the world. One of those is HAZTURK
has been developed for Turkey from HAZUS (Hazard US) software was prepared by
FEMA. to be able to predict amount of damages by earthquake scenarios. To apply the
software for Turkey, all data must be defined in WGS84 coordinate system and in
Transverse Mercator Projection System.
Analysing the risk and calculation of lose assessment by using HAZTURK need to
have input data. All data must be in HAZTURK data standards. For this study, pipeline
and study area which have to be in shape file format. Attribute table of data is also
essential for using the software to get more accurate result. Calculation of Digital
Elevation Model of the study has been created surface points which have elevation
information. However, data format of the DEM converted to slope map ASCII raster
format because of standards of the software. Another main input data of study is (Vs)
wave velocity of the ground to create soil map in GRIDCODE format. Moreover,
detection proper attenuation relationship for study area is also one of the other key
factors. To choose the best attenuation for study area should be regarded on mainly
magnitude, distance to the source, depth and type of fault, geology, ground wave
velocity and soil type.
The aim of the thesis is to estimate the possible earthquakes which will be caused by
Karayazı, Pasinler, Kandilli and Erzurum fault zone that lines that are in the eastern
bloc of the North Anatolian in Erzurum province. It has been performed that prediction
of loss assessment and amount of damage generated regarding seniors of earthquakes
for ITE natural gas pipeline along the specific kilometres in Erzurum by using
HAZTURK software. Erzurum is one of the city from Turkey where it is at risk
because of expected earthquakes. That's why Erzurum is selected for study area in this
thesis.
Necessary data for loss analysis are boreholes, elevations, geological and geotechnical
information as well as ITE pipeline data for specified kilometres which have been
provided by Turang Transit Taşımacılık A.Ş. Besides, earthquake and fault lines have
been taken from varies sources. All data have been prepared to make appropriate for HAZTURK software standards. Accuracy of estimation clearly depends on quality of
the input data.
The second part of the thesis has been explained worse effects of earthquake on buried
pipeline. Type of damages on pipeline such as leak and broken, seismic waves effects,
settlement of the pipeline, liquefaction possibility for soil after ground shaking pipeline
deformations which are permanently and temporarily caused by movements indicated
in that section. Moreover, Hazard maps, vulnerability, management of hazard and
steps of the management, definition of GIS, type and standards of GIS and HAZTURK
software features like used for analysing damage on buildings, infrastructures, bridges,
lose assessment, GIS, social analyses and standards of the software are mentioned to
introduce the study for the thesis.
In the third part, literature search, examples from the world and Turkey about seismic
risk analysis and lose estimation has been researched.
The fourth part, generation and standardization of spatial data, definition and data
standards of spatial data and data standards of HAZTRUK software has been explained
in that stage.
The fifth part of the thesis, it has been presented application for this study. It is
explained that how to obtain all data which is used for analysing and the data
standardisation for HAZTURK software. It is presented that generation of hazard maps
by using HAZTURK software and loss assessment by using ArcGIS software for
specific kilometres of Iran Turkey Europe natural gas pipeline which took part in
districts Pasinler, Palandöken, Yakutiye and Aşkale in Erzurum province. This study
has been done both for Kandilli and Erzurum fault lines which are crossing the pipeline
for two parts also Pasinler and Karayazı fault line is very close to the pipeline. Both
case has been evaluated according to scenarios of earthquake which is worst case
magnitude value has chosen 7,8. It has been obtained as a result that repair rates are
equal for Kandilli and Erzurum fault line region because both are crossing the pipeline.
Pasinler and Karayazı fault line are not crossing the pipeline but it is lying very close
to the line. Repair rate has been found lower than the previous two study areas.
The sixth stage includes result of the study and some recommendations for improving
techniques and methods for hazard analysing and reducing the damage of earthquake.