Türkiye'nin doğal gaz arz güvenliği ile ilgili risklerin belirlenmesi ve analizi
Identification and analysis of risks associated with gas supply security of Turkey
Yazar: ÜMİT KILIÇ
Danışman: PROF. DR. ASİYE BERİL TUĞRUL
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Enerji Enstitüsü / Enerji Bilim ve Teknoloji Ana Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2014
Konu: Enerji = Energy

Özet:
Tarihsel olarak enerji güvenliği temelde petrol arz güvenliği ile ilişkilendirilmiştir. Petrol arz güvenliği hala önemini korumakla beraber, ülkelerin toplam birincil enerji kaynak arzı içerisinde doğal gazın artan payı bu emtianın da arz güvenliğini akıllara getirmektedir. Güvenilir doğal gaz arzı, şu sıralar  Avrupa'da en çok tartışılan konulardan biridir. Özellikle Ocak 2009'da  bir takım Avrupa Birliği ülkelerine gaz arzında yaşanan kesinti ve kısıtlamalardan sonra konu daha da önemli hale gelmiştir.
Bu yüksek lisans tezi çalışmasında, doğal gazın enerji kaynakları içindeki yeri ve enerji kaynaklarının sınıflandırmasından başlanarak, doğal gazın dünyada taşınması ve gelişimi, dünyadaki ticaret yolları incelenmiştir. Türkiye'de doğal gaz piyasası detaylı bir biçimde incelenerek geçmiş üretim, ithalat ve depolama datalarına yer verilmiş, arz ve talep dengesi kapsamlı bir biçimde irdelenmiştir. Türkiye'de planlanan ve mevcut boru hatları, LNG terminalleri teknik detaylarıyla irdelenip ülkenin jeopolitik konumu ile birlikte değerlendirilerek enerji terminali olma hedefinde çalışan Türkiye'nin bu bağlamda durumu analiz edilmiştir.
Çalışmada takip edilen metodolojinin aktarılması anlamında, risk analizi kavramı ve önemine, risk analizi için önemli faktörler ve parametrelere tezde yer verilmiştir. N-1 kriteri hesaplama yöntemleri ve risk değerlendirmesi kriterlerinin esasları detaylı bir biçimde incelenmiştir.
Türkiye doğal gaz arzı güvenliği ile ilgili risklerin belirlenmesi için detaylı bir risk değerlendirmesi çalışması yapılmıştır. Bununla birlikte, gaz arzında yaşanan kesintilerden sonra doğal gaz arz güvenliğini güvence altına almak için Avrupa Parlamentosu tarafından yayımlanan 994/2010 nolu yönetmelik kapsamında ülkenin riskleri analiz edilmiştir. Bu yönetmeliğin yaptırımlarından bir tanesi de tam kapsamlı bir analizin her ülke için yapılmasıdır. Türk gaz şebekesinde geçtiğimiz dönemlerde yaşanan aksaklıklar da böyle bir analize ihtiyaç duyulduğuna işaret etmektedir.
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'nin doğal gaz arz güvenliği etraflıca tartışılmış ve ülkenin arz güvenliği, Avrupa Birliği tarafından yayımlanan 994/2010 nolu yönetmelik kapsamında değerlendirilmiştir. İlaveten, potansiyel kriz senaryolarını belirlemek ve simüle etmek için tam kapsamlı nicel bir risk değerlendirmesi yapılmıştır. Olası krizlerin etkilerinin niceliği belirlenmiş ve Türkiye'nin doğal gaz arz güvenliğinin artırılması için ne gibi önlemler alınması gerektiği hususunda daha iyi bir fikir edinilebilmesi için bu senaryoların risk değerleri hesaplanmıştır.

Abstract:
Historically, energy security was primarily associated with oil supply security. While oil supply remains a key issue, increasing share of natural gas among total primary energy supply of countries brings to mind supply security of this commodity as well. At present, reliable gas supply is one of the most crucial issues in Europe. This subject became even more important after gas supply interruptions and limitations took place in January of 2009 in some countries of European Union (EU). 
In this master thesis study, starting from the place of natural gas in energy sources and classification of energy sources, transport of natural gas and trade movements examined. Natural gas market in Turkey analysed in detail and historical data in regard to natural gas production, import and storage compiled, supply and demand equilibrium studied. Existing and planned pipelines and LNG terminals were  presented in the study and compiled information evaluated together with country's geopolitical location to conduct an as-is analysis in regard to Turkey's status quo of being an energy hub in its region. 
Environmentally friendly feature of natural gas is an important factor that helps rise of its use. Natural gas, thanks to its gas form of state, makes a better mixture with air and easily burns up. Its gas form of state makes it more accurately controllable. Once the natural gas burned, it does not produce substantial amounts of solid waste (i.e. ash). For that reason, share of natural gas among available energy sources is increasing day by day. Use of natural gas in electricity generation in 2011 is almost doubled from 12% to 22% as compared to use in 1973.
The principals of natural gas market in Turkey are laid down by the Natural Gas Law No.4646 issued on April, 18, 2001. Based on these principals, Turkish natural gas market is targeted to be liberalized. The aim is to reduce the market share of state-owned companies in natural gas market and to form a competitive market through enhancing market access for private players.
Turkey consumed 45.2 bcm of natural gas in 2012. 0.6 bcm of total consumption supplied by local production, whereas rest of domestic demand supplied by Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan through pipelines and by Nigeria, Algeria and spot markets through LNG. As of 2012, gas storage capacity of Turkey stands at 3.1 bcm.
Natural gas exploration and production activities, as laid down by Petroleum Law No.6323, are done via exploration and operation licences issued by General Directorate of Petroleum Affairs, a subordinate of Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. As of 2012, Turkey's natural gas production stands at 0.6 bcm. In Turkey, there are 14 active natural gas production sites. In 2012, Turkey's natural gas consumption stood at 45.2 bcm, 99% of total demand covered by imports.
Natural gas imports in Turkey are done through pipelines and LNG terminals. There are 4 international natural gas pipelines and 2 LNG terminals active in Turkey as of 2012. Use of natural gas in Turkey is increasing day by day, even today Turkey is one of the major natural gas importers in the world.
International ISO 31000 Risk Management System Standards defines the essentials of risk management and standardizes risk management measures to be implemented.  To ensure that risk management is done in an effective manner, principles and generic guidelines are defined in ISO 31000 Risk Management System Standards. 
The intention of the Regulation 994/2010 of the European Parliament and of the Council Concerning Measures to Safeguard Security of Gas Supply is to prevent the kind of gas crisis situations EU-27 experienced in January 2009. One of the means considered in the Regulation to achieve this target is performing a full risk assessment. 
Each Member State shall make a full risk assessment of the risks affecting its security of gas supply by:
•	using the infrastructure and supply standards,
•	taking into account all relevant national and regional circumstances,
•	running various scenarios of exceptionally high gas demand and supply disruption, such as failure of the main transmission infrastructures, storages or LNG terminals, and disruption of supplies from third country suppliers, taking into account the history, probability, season, frequency and duration of their occurrence as well as, where appropriate, geopolitical risks, and assessing the likely consequences of these scenarios.
Based on the regulation No. 994/2010 issued by European Parliament, in the event of disruption of the single largest gas infrastructure during a day of exceptionally high gas demand occurring with a statistical probability of once in 20 years, whether the rest of the system will cover the demand or not should be calculated with N-1 formula.
In order to present the methodology followed in study, risk analysis concept and importance of it, important factors and parameters affecting risk analyses given in detail in this thesis study. Methodology for calculation of N-1 criterion and essentials of risk assessment analysed in detail.
A detailed risk assessment study was done for the purpose of identifying risks associated with the security of gas supply in Turkey. Moreover, analyzing the risks of the state according to the regulation 994/2010 issued by European Parliament to safeguard Security of Gas Supply that is accepted after suffering gas supply interruptions. One of the means considered in the Regulation to achieve this target is performing a full risk assessment. Recent disruptions took place in Turkish gas network call for performing an extensive risk assessment for Turkey as well. 
In this study, gas supply security of Turkey, as a country still having negotiations on EU accession, discussed and its impacts on the security of the state evaluated in the context of regulation 994/2010 issued by European Union and ISO 31000 Risk Standard. Within this context, 48 different crisis scenarios simulated and the risks in regard to gas supply security of Turkey analysed in a quantitative way.
As for the N-1 criterion calculations outlined in the regulation no 994/2010 issued by European Union in regard to natural gas supply security, the period between 2008-2014 has chosen. In other words, a seven years data analysis has been conducted. 
With this thesis study, gas supply security of Turkey discussed and its impacts on the supply security of the state evaluated in the context of regulation 994/2010 issued by European Union. Furthermore, a full quantitative risk assessment study is done to identify and simulate potential crisis scenarios. Impacts of potential crises quantified  and their risk values calculated to gain better insight on what measures should be taken to increase gas supply security of Turkey.