Program risk yönetimine yapısal tasarım matrisi esaslı yeni bir 
yaklaşım
A new approach to program risk management based on design structural matrix
Yazar: FEVZİ MURAT SOLMAZ
Danışman: YRD. DOÇ. DR. UMUT ASAN
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Savunma Teknolojileri Ana Bilim Dalı / Savunma Teknolojileri Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2017
Konu: Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği = Industrial and Industrial Engineering
Dizin: Risk = Risk ; Risk analizi = Risk analysis ; Risk değerlendirmesi = Risk assesment ; Risk yönetimi = Risk management

Özet:
Risk, hayat döngüsünde karşılaşılan, hayat akışındaki karar düğümlerinde belirleyici
rol oynayan bir olgu olmuştur. İnsan tarafından bu durum yönetilmek istenmiş ve
akışlar planlanmaya başlamıştır. Nerede ne yapılacağını veya yapılabileceği
görüldüğünde, daha tahmin edilebilir bir hayat örgüsüne girilmiştir. Ancak hayatta
değişenler, çevredeki durumları değiştirmeye devam etmiştir. Sosyal etki alanındaki
her konunun hesap edilemediğini görülmüştür. Şimdi bir ürün ya da hizmet çıkarmak
için proje ve programlarda düşünüldüğünde, ortada birbirini tanımadan, yaptıklarıyla
birbirlerini etkileyen bir grup görülür. Bu grup kısıtlar fanusu içine kapatılıp, bütçe,
zaman ve içerik olarak da sınırlandırıldığında yapı daha kaotik bir görünüme
gelmektedir. Proje ve programların yönetildiği bu düzen içinde belirsizlik kaynaklı,
risk yönetiminin sivriltilmesine ihtiyaç duyulmuştur.
Hızlı tüketim toplumuna dönüştürülen sosyal hayat, çevresel etkileşimi de
hızlandırmış, yeni hizmet ve ürünlerin daha çabuk eskidiği bir ürün hayat döngüsü
oluşmuştur. Bu döngü, beraberinde ürün geliştirme süreçlerini etkilemiş, uygun
maliyette ve hedef zamanda ürünü karşılamak için riski daha agresif yönetilmeye ve
risk kaynakları da görünür hale getirilmeye çalışılmıştır. Bu bağlamda riskler
tanımlanarak, ihtimalleri de hesaba katılarak risk rezervleri eklenmiş ve bu risk
rezervleri kullanılarak yönetilmeye çalışılmıştır. Bununla beraber yeni yaklaşımlar
geliştirilmiştir. Reaktif düzenin, noktasal çözümün yetmediği, etkileşim içindeki büyük
bir organizma gibi gözüken ürün geliştirme süreci için yeni bakış açılarının gerekliliği
oluşmuştur.
Yapılan bu tez çalışmasında yapısal tasarım matris tekniği kullanılarak, program
fizibilite aşamasında proaktif yaklaşımla, riskleri görünür kılınmış. Bütünsel bakış ile
bağıntıların etkileşimini beraber gösteren bir yapı oluşturulmuş ve yöntemsel olarak
ortaya konmuştur. Yöntem bir otomotiv şirketinde vaka çalışması kapsamında
uzman doğrulaması ile denenmiştir. Belirlenen kapsamda Delfi tekniği ile nitel risk
tanımlaması, nicel yapıda matematiksel olarak test edilmiş ve oluşturulan uzlaşma
platformunda katılımcıların tartışması ile görselleştirilerek, sentezlenmiştir.
Kullanılan "yapısal tasarım matrisi" ile oluşan çıktılar kendi arasındaki etkileşimlerin
de gösterildiği, alan haritalama matrisine adıyla dönüştürülmüştür. Ürün mimarisinde
risklerin etkileşimi ile ortaya çıkan ardıl risk ise, yine bu görsel şablonda
çözümlenmiştir. Modülerliğin sağladığı avantaj ile ardıl risk çözümü üzerine gidilerek
alınan sonuçlar matriste gösterilmiştir.
Çıkan sonuçların verileri yorumlanarak, modüler yapıdaki bir görsel şablonda
program yönetimi için, yönetsel çıkarımları ve gelecek için önerileri sunulmuştur.

Abstract:
Risk has become a phenomenon that plays a decisive role in the decision nodes in
the flow of life encountered in the life cycle. Human was wanted to manage this
situation and the flows started to be planned. When it is seen where or what can be
done or done, a more predictable life pattern is entered. However, those who have
changed in life have continued to change the circumstances in the world. It has
been seen that every subject in the social domain cannot be accounted for. When
we think about projects and programs to produce a product or service now, there is
a group that interacts with each other without knowing each other. When this group
of constraints is closed into the bell glass, and limited by budget, time, and content,
the structure becomes more chaotic. In this system where projects and programs
are managed, it is necessary to emphasize risk management, which is caused by
uncertainty.
The social life transformed into a fast consumer society has accelerated
environmental interaction, and a product life cycle has emerged that is faster than
new services and products. People of this society change the products rapidly and
get bored of the services quickly that, people in the product development cycle feels
the pressure for early launch in a limited budget. Industry evolved itself according to
demand of the consumers. Product life cycle has affected the product development
process, and at an affordable cost, it has been attempted to manage the risk more
aggressively and to make the risk sources visible to meet the product at the target
time. In this context, risk reserves have been added and risk margins have been
tried to be managed by defining the risks and probabilities. Therefore, new
approaches have been developed. The need for new perspectives has arisen for the
product development process, which seems to be a large organism in interaction
with the reactive view, where point solution is not enough.
Projects in which different disciplined teams are involved in product development
are aimed at changing managers' and employees' point of view to situations and
events, with the aim of negotiating and reconciling ideas during the feasibility stage.
In order to create a new perspective, the history of the project management
techniques applied in the programs was examined first. In this stage,
chronologically, examples from the Gantt scheme used at the beginning of the 20th
century to the critical chain project management were searched. Product
development projects were selected as focused application area and the effects of
uncertainty in these projects were examined in the literature. As a consequence of
uncertainty, risks and opportunities emerged at the later stages of the project and
turned into risk management in the context of literature review. When the risk
management steps are examined, it has been noticed that the reactive viewpoint
and independent consideration of each risk do not prevent the emergence of new
risks at the later stages of the project. Subsequently, the risk dependencies in the
projects and the actions taken for these conditions were examined, risk responses
to the successor risk effect (which is called "posterior risk" in literature) and risk
prevention strategies were evaluated.
Posterior risks have been found to be single, or interrelated, engineering,
environmental, or project-related. If risk dependency is not followed in the program
management environment, only the risks between the same categories will be
examined and the interaction between the different risk groups will be ignored. On
the other hand, the risk dependency account gives the project team the opportunity
to show the interaction with other projects. For this reason, the risk should be based
not only on its own influence but also on its indirect impact and posterior risk for
project risk management. Program management may establish a management level
overhead to establish inter-project communication, but employee level risk
dependencies require a more effective explanation for implementation.
Hence, dependency analysis models were searched. Tree based analysis, Markov
analysis, Bayesian network and goal risk model were reviewed as common
techniques for risk dependency management. All of the techniques mentioned work
for the resolution of conditional probability risks. The risk of conditional probability
will be examined in the next sub-section. The technical model to be elaborated in
the thesis method aims to cover the deficiencies of the dependency analysis models
mentioned in the literature. In thesis the proposed method should also address and
display risk dependencies. It has been argued that when the targeted different
perspective of the selected design structural matrix (DSM) is searched in the
literature, it can be used for posterior risk solutions. As a result, different practices in
the industry have been examined and it has been decided to implement it in a case.
In the thesis case study, there is an automotive company producing heavy
commercial vehicles. It is aimed that the vehicle's competitive position will have
been protected by adding the weight reduction and fuel economy advantages that
will create new option features as this automotive company will create variants in the
heavy commercial vehicle platform. The goal of the platform program is to identify
the posterior risks of the use of the design structural matrix and the domain mapping
matrix (DMM) and the modularity to be provided by this use, in accordance with the
risk management steps. The design structural matrix technique is used and the risks
are visualized by proactive approach in the program feasibility stage. A structure
that shows the interaction between the holistic view and the relativism has been
created and presented methodically. The method has been tried with expert
validation under the case study in an automotive company. In the specified scope,
qualitative risk identification with Delphi technique was mathematically tested in the
quantitative structure and synthesized by visualizing it with the compromise of
participants' discussion on the created reconciliation platform. The output of the
"design structural matrix" used is transformed into the "domain mapping matrix",
where the interactions between the outputs are also shown. The posterior risk
arising from the interaction of risks in the product architecture has also been
resolved in this visual template. The advantages obtained from the modularity and
posterior risk solutions are shown in the matrix.
The diagram formed by DSM has become a matrix of meaning for practitioners. It
does not provide a solution for every problem, but it can be used for risk response
strategy application by visual method. It can help to improve it continuously.
Complexity management is provided by the external and internal information
interaction provided by the DSM method. When the system becomes more
understandable and open to development in the new case, it is possible to identify
component-based risks in the product architecture and create risk response
strategies.
The biggest difference is that the posterior risk is managed and eliminated with the
modularity provided. The interdependent components are poured into visual
diagrams in DSMs, common components intersecting in rework and modular groups
caused by iterations are evaluated with prepared preliminary studies and risk mitigation strategies are applied by solving them with the added design rules. The
design rules defined by the created DMM are made visible on the project target.
This result can be said to be modular grouping, design simplification and risk
response generation. This has made the iterations predictable. In addition, a
reconciliation platform between departments was established in the feasibility stage.
Interactions were shown on a component and target basis. Scope priorities were
identified by determining the necessary assumptions and design rules.
By commenting on the results of the results, managerial implications and future
proposals for program management have been presented in a visual template in a
modular structure. It has been seen that the most important condition for increasing
the number of opportunities caught is the experience and choice of the expert group
when this method goes a step further and more minimal risks are detected. In
addition, a holistic view of the capabilities and behaviors of people working on
projects may be studied in the future, suggesting changes in project organization
structures, even in company management, after new applications are made. For the
continual improvement proposal, it is possible to work on benefit only, without
considering the risk. It has been shown that this method can be combined with more
than one subject.