17 Ağustos 1999 Marmara Depremi ile 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş depremlerinin boylamsal analiz yöntemi ile karşılaştırılması
Comparison of 17 August 1999 Marmara Earthquake and 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake through longitudinal analysis method
Yazar: MİNE FIRAT
Danışman: PROF. DR. SEDA KUNDAK
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü / Şehir ve Bölge Planlama Ana Bilim Dalı / Şehir Planlama Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2023
Konu: Şehircilik ve Bölge Planlama = Urban and Regional Planning

Özet:
21. yüzyılın ilk çeyreğinde dünyanın farklı noktalarında gerçekleşen çeşitli afetlerin sayısının her geçen gün arttığı görülmektedir. Bugüne kadar tecrübe edilen afet sayısındaki artış, afet risk yönetimi alanında teorik ve pratik olarak gerçekleşen birçok çalışmayı da beraberinde getirmektedir. Bilindiği üzere Türkiye bir deprem ülkesi olmakla beraber, aynı zamanda iklim değişikliğine bağlı gelişen çeşitli afetlerle farklı zamanlarda ve farklı lokasyonlarda yüzleşmek durumunda kalmaktadır. Ülkemiz bugüne kadar sayısız büyük depremle karşı karşıya kalmıştır. 1939 Erzincan Depremi'nin ardından etki alanı en büyük deprem bugüne kadar 1999 Marmara Depremi olmuştur. 6 Şubat 2023 04.17 de gerçekleşen ve merkez üssü Kahramanmaraş olarak belirlenen depremin ardından 13.24'te gerçekleşen ve merkez üssü tekrar Kahramanmaraş olan 2 büyük depremin bilançosu 1999 Marmara Depremi'nden daha büyük olmuş ve Türkiye tarihinin en yıkıcı depremlerinden birisi olarak kabul görmüştür. Depremin etkilediği 11 şehirin yaklaşık nüfusu 13.5 milyon olup; Marmara depremi ile karşılaştırılamayacak büyüklükte bir alan ve nüfus depremden etkilenmiştir. Tecrübe ettiğimiz bu deprem mekansal planlama standartlarının bölge özelinde belirlenmesi gerekliliğinin, afet risk yönetim öncesi ve sonrası planlarının hazırlanmasının, kurumsal organizasyon ve entegrasyonun önemini tekrardan gözler önüne sermiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, tecrübe edilen afetlerden sonra revize edilen yasal araç ve uygulamarın ve ulusal çalışmaların uygulamada başarılı ve başarız yönlerini belirlemektir. 1999 ve 2023 depremleri arasında geçen zamanda yürütülen uygulamalara bağlı olarak afet sonrası tecrübe edilen şeylerin ve yaşanan problemlerin tekrar edip etmediğini görmek ve elde edilen sonuçlar ışığında öneriler geliştirilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında, 17 Ağustos 1999 Marmara Depremi ve 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş Depremleri çeşitli başlıklar altında incelenerek afet risk yönetimi ve bu bağlamda uygulamada olan yasal araç ve uygulamaların süreç içerisindeki gelişimlerinde bulunan eksiklikleri ve başarılı olunan tarafları ortaya koyulacaktır. Çalışmanın yöntemi, 17 Ağustos 1999 Marmara Depremi ve 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş Depremleri'nin boylamsal analiz yöntemi ile karşılaştırmalı vaka analizinin yapılması olup; mekansal veriyi analiz edebilmek adına çeşitli parametreler belirlenmiştir. Mevcut kanun, mevzuat ve yönetmeliklerin uygulama araçları ve pratikleri ile depremlerden etkilenen bölgelerde arazi kullanımı, yapı performansı ve kentsel donatı elemanlarının deprem öncesi ve sonrasında ilişkisel bağlantıları incelenmiş ve boylamsal analiz yöntemi ile karşılaştırılması yapılmıştır. Aynı zamanda karşılaştırma çalışmaları esnasında çalışma alanlarının depremsellik açısından coğrafi özellikleri, meydana gelen depremlerin deprem karakteristikleri, demografik yapı ve depremlerin medya ve basına yansımaları değerlendirilen diğer başlıklar arasındadır. Yapılan çalışmadan elde edilen sonuç 1999 depreminden çıkarılan derslerin ve elde edilen sonuçların uygulamada yeterince geliştirilmemiş olduğu, mevzuat esas ve usullerinin uygulama eksikliklerinin olduğu ve mekansal planlama çalışmalarının etkin bir şekilde yürütülemediği, afet risk yönetim planları hazırlanırken daha detaylı çalışmaların yürütülmesi gerektiği, afet öncesi aksiyon planlarının geliştirilmesi ve kentsel dönüşüm çalışmalarının hızlandırılması gerektiği olmuştur.

Abstract:
In the first quarter of the 21st century, it is evident that the frequency of various disasters occurring in different regions of the world is steadily on the rise. This escalation in the number of experienced disasters has given rise to a plethora of both theoretical and practical studies in the field of disaster risk management. As is well-known, Turkey is a seismically active country, and in addition, it faces various disasters stemming from climate change at different times and in different geographical locations. Throughout its history, our country has encountered numerous major earthquakes, and it stands as a living laboratory for studying the multifaceted challenges of disaster management. The seismic activity in Turkey has far-reaching implications, not only for the safety and well-being of its population but also for its economic stability and regional development. Therefore, understanding and enhancing the disaster risk management strategies in Turkey is of paramount importance. This research embarks on a comprehensive exploration of the evolution of disaster risk management practices in Turkey, with a focus on the seismic events of the 1999 Marmara Earthquake and the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes. Through an interdisciplinary lens, it delves into the complex interplay between legal frameworks, spatial planning, and socio-economic factors, shedding light on the persistent challenges and opportunities that confront disaster-prone regions. By examining the lessons learned from the past and juxtaposing them with contemporary realities, this study contributes to the broader discourse on effective disaster resilience and risk mitigation strategies, not only in Turkey but also within the global context. In doing so, it seeks to enrich the academic dialogue, inform policy formulation, and pave the way for a more resilient and secure future in the face of mounting disaster challenges worldwide.Over the course of its history, Turkey has weathered numerous major earthquakes, with the 1999 Marmara Earthquake standing out as the most consequential seismic event to date. However, the aftermath of two significant earthquakes on February 6, 2023, both centered in Kahramanmaraş, has eclipsed the 1999 Marmara Earthquake in terms of devastation, marking it as one of Turkey's most catastrophic earthquakes. The affected area, encompassing 11 cities with a combined population of 13.5 million, constitutes an unprecedented magnitude, unparalleled in comparison to the Marmara earthquake. This seismic catastrophe has underscored the pressing need for region-specific spatial planning standards, pre- and post-disaster risk management blueprints, and the organizational and integrative aspects of disaster management institutions.
The principal objective of this research is to assess the efficacy and shortcomings of the amended legal frameworks and practices, as well as national initiatives, following these recent disasters. In light of the findings, the study endeavors to ascertain whether issues and experiences similar to those following the 1999 and 2023 earthquakes have reemerged, ultimately proposing recommendations. The study will comprehensively examine the 17th of August, 1999 Marmara Earthquake and the February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, employing a comparative case analysis and a longitudinal analytical approach. Various parameters will be established to scrutinize spatial data, including the interplay between existing laws, regulations, directives, implementation tools and practices, and their impact on land use, structural resilience, and urban infrastructure in earthquake-affected areas prior to and post-earthquakes. Furthermore, the study will delve into the geographical characteristics of these areas, their seismicity, earthquake attributes, demographic composition, and media coverage surrounding these seismic events.
Following the 1939 Erzincan Earthquake, considerable efforts were made by the state to respond to disasters, resulting in substantial changes in legal frameworks and practices to facilitate accurate assessment of earthquake effects and post-disaster reconstruction. Over the ensuing 60 years, significant legislative and regulatory amendments were enacted and implemented, demonstrating their efficacy in practice due to the geographical proximity of areas directly affected by earthquakes. Nevertheless, within the same timeframe, advances in technology and scientific research have led to shifts in disaster risk management approaches. Surprisingly, comparative analyses indicate that similar problems recurred after the 1999 and 2023 earthquakes, both of which witnessed extensive destruction.
The primary impacts of earthquakes on populations encompass shifts in demographic patterns, internal and external migrations, alterations in employment opportunities, and economic hardships faced by the affected populace. Survivors' reluctance to remain in earthquake-prone regions spurs migration, consequently reshaping the social, cultural, and economic dynamics of other cities while disrupting regional equilibriums. Substantial loss of life and structural damage during earthquakes grinds economic activities to a halt, as observed in the Marmara Region post-1999 earthquake. Similarly, the cities affected by the 2023 earthquakes significantly contribute to the country's exports, production, and industrial endeavors, raising concerns of comparable consequences. Moreover, alongside the loss of life in these cities, individuals unwilling to reside in seismic zones have initiated migration, further influencing regional population dynamics.
This study's findings underscore the insufficient translation of lessons learned and insights gained from the 1999 earthquake into practical applications. Notable gaps exist in the implementation of legal principles and procedures, as well as in spatial planning endeavors. Consequently, more detailed research is imperative in shaping effective pre-disaster strategies and expediting urban transformation initiatives. The results strongly affirm the study's hypothesis: the legal frameworks and practices employed during spatial planning activities have not been effectively executed. Instead of witnessing earthquake-prepared, resilient, and secure cities between 1999 and 2023, the cities affected by the 2023 earthquakes are found wanting in terms of sustainability and resilience.
The earthquakes have exposed the ineffectiveness of legal frameworks and practices during the 1999-2023 period, necessitating a comprehensive reevaluation based on scientific data. The revision of legal frameworks and practices lays the groundwork for the judicious, precise, and active utilization of future spatial planning efforts. Furthermore, strengthening building inspections, ensuring the accountability of public institutions, and fostering secure environments in spatial planning activities assume paramount importance. Collaborative ventures between public institutions and academic bodies, coupled with the formulation of evidence-based strategic plans, can contribute significantly to the pursuit of healthy, resilient, and sustainable cities. Additionally, this study highlights the importance of data and archive security, with historical data preservation emerging as a vital solution for ensuring data accessibility and security.
Micro-level zoning studies, integral to local-level planning, must be conducted during planning and construction endeavors. Public institutions' plans should be subjected to rigorous scrutiny for realism and feasibility. To effectively execute disaster risk management and promote sustainable, resilient cities, the incorporation of disaster risk management principles into zoning plans is imperative. The inclusion of new criteria rooted in disaster parameters during suitability assessments of settlements within spatial planning can fortify sustainability efforts.
In conclusion, the findings of this research underscore the critical significance of bridging the gap between theoretical frameworks and practical implementation within the domain of disaster risk management. The 1999 Marmara Earthquake and the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes serve as poignant reminders of the enduring challenges posed by natural disasters, especially in regions prone to seismic activity. Despite substantial amendments to legal instruments and practices over the past six decades, the recurrence of similar problems following these seismic events necessitates a thorough reevaluation and transformation of existing paradigms. This study serves as a clarion call for scholars, policymakers, and practitioners to reinvigorate their commitment to evidence-based decision-making, fostering the effective synergy between academia and public institutions. It underscores the need for a holistic approach, incorporating interdisciplinary research, data-driven policy formulation, and robust institutional collaboration. The imperative of sustainable, resilient, and secure cities, as illuminated by the seismic tragedies examined herein, compels us to re-envision disaster risk management in the light of scientific advancement, technological innovation, and a steadfast dedication to the well-being of communities. The journey towards achieving this goal hinges upon the judicious revision of legal frameworks, the fortification of public institutions, and the cultivation of a dynamic, knowledge-driven ecosystem that champions the cause of disaster resilience in our ever-changing world.