Orta ölçekli bir türk inşaat firmasının balkanlara açılmasında yatırım tercihi için model çalışması
A decision-making modelling for a medium-scaled turkish construction company willing to invest in the balkans
Yazar: MUSTAFA İLGİN
Danışman: ÖĞR. GÖR. DR. MURAT KURUOĞLU
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / İnşaat Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2012
Konu: İnşaat Mühendisliği = Civil Engineering
Dizin: Balkanlar = Balkans

Özet:
Bu çalışmada on bir adet Balkan ülkesi olan Slovenya, Hırvatistan, Bosna-Hersek, Sırbistan, Karadağ, Kosova, Arnavutluk, Makedonya, Bulgaristan, Romanya ve Moldova yurtdışına açılmak isteyen orta ölçekli bir Türk müteahhitlik firmasının yapacağı inşaat yatırımı için uygunluk açısından incelenmiştir.Bu incelemeler yapılırken bu ülkelerin ülke bilgileri, Türkiye ile olan ilişkileri ve yatırım şartları gibi veriler toplanarak hangi ülkenin daha avantajlı yatırım ortamını sağlayacağına karar vermek için bir modelleme yapmak amaçlanmıştır. İnşaat sektörü yalnızca beton ve demirden müteşekkil olmadığı için bu ülkelerin bürokratik, siyasi, ekonomik durumları ile ülke şartları incelenerek lokomotif bir sektör olan inşaat sektörüne olan etkileri incelenmiştir.Yapılan bu incelemeler sonucunda on bir olan yatırım alternatif sayısı üçe düşürülmüştür. Daha sonra bu üç ülke arasından bir ülke seçebilmek için çeşitli karar verme metodolojileri kullanılmıştır. Bu uygulamanın sonucunda ise Moldova Cumhuriyeti yapılacak olası bir yatırımda en ağır basan alternatif olarak öne çıkmıştır. Daha sonra bu alternatif üzerinde daha detaylı bir inceleme yapılarak inşaat konusundaki ülke profil ve altyapısı tespit edilerek bu ülkenin karlılık ve çalışılabilirliği tespit edilmiştir.Daha sonra yapılan örnek olay incelemesi ile Türkiye Cumhuriyeti'nde bulunan Kahramanmaraş ili, Moldova Cumhuriyeti'nde bulunanKişinev ili ile karşılaştırılarak firmanın bulunduğu yerde mi kalması, yoksa karar modellemesi sonucunda tespit edilen yeni pazara mı açılması daha makbuldür, bunun tespiti yapılmaya çalışılmıştır.Bu tespit yapılırken ise bürokratik, teknik, yönetimsel ve mali açıdan inceleme ve karşılaştırmalar yapılmıştır. Bu karşılaştırmalar sonucunda Kahramanmaraş mali yönler hariç, bürokrasi, siyaset, teknik konular ve bir takım diğer yönlerden ağır bassa da firma için kat ve kat daha fazla olan karlılık karar alırken belirleyici unsur olmuştur.Daha sonra bir takım sorularla bu karar son bir defa sorgulanarak son karar olarak Kişinev'de yatırım daha tercih edilebilir olarak tespit edilmiştir. Karı risksizliğe tercih eden inşaat şirketinin bir noktaya kadar karla doğru orantılı derecede risk almakta istekli olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ancak bu kesişim noktasından sonra firmanın kar oranının daha çok artma imkanı bulunmasına rağmen bu noktadan sonraki riskler gereksiz risk olarak tespit edilmiştir.Orta ölçekli Türk inşaat firmasının tercihi optimum karar noktası olan risk ve çalışılabilirlik kesişim noktası olacaktır. Bu noktada karlılıkta kararı etkileyen bir faktör olacaktır. Çünkü firmanın varoluş sebebi kar etmektir.

Abstract:
In this thesis the countries in the Balkans, which are Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia Hersegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, Macedonia, Bulgaria, Romania and Moldova, are investigated about the existing conditions for construction investments in those countries by a mid-sized Turkish construction company which is willing to expand to Balkans preferrably with its own equities. Investigated subjects are investment atmospheres and relationships with the Turkish Republic. After defining outlines of the construction industries in these countries by collecting information from online resources such as CIA factbook etc., conducting a survey amongst previous investors, businessmen and nongovermental organizations? representatives and making some other various analyses, project type, country to be invested and financement type of a prospective project are chosen by several decision making mechanisms. Because construction industry is not consisted by only bringing the cement, the iron and the water together; but it is an industry mingled with economics, politics, social sciences, mathematic even history.In the first chapter of these thesis, country information of Balkan countries are congregated together to be analyzed for further investigations on construction industry.In the second chapter, the investment opportunities of each of the Balkanic countries are investigated and as a result it is seen that all these countries are following similar incentive systems with slightly different nuances.In the third chapter; economical, historical and political relations of Balkanic countries with Turkish Republic is investigated. After this investigation, the influence of these relationships are examined to understand deeply the activity of the Turkish contracting companies in those countries, the agreements between our government with these countries and as a result the visa regime of these countries for Turkish citizens for the sake of ease of travel.In the fourth and fifth chapters, a group of decisions are to be made. To make those decisions, the most suitable decision making methods were tried to be chosen by one other decision making criterion; Vroom-Yetton-Jago contingency model. A decision tree is used to define in what kind of project is to be conducted. And Kepner-Tregoe Matrix is used to determine which kind of financial source will be used to source the project. For reducing the number of alternative from eleven to three the Evaluation Matrix is used.An evaluation through the help of several surveys which are about bureaucratic situation, political situation, country situation and financial situation of those eleven countries is used to build up the decision matrices. To obtain data for financial situation, cost-benefit analyse is used. Also by jugding the previous experiments of the construction company, the residential project is chosen as a start-up project.After those decisions, Analytical Hyerarcy Process (AHP) was used to choose one country out of three alternatives to define where the prospective project will be built. While using AHP the software; Expert Choice Pro was used to ease up the whole process and to avoid potential mistakes.The data obtained by surveys made with contractors, businessmen, sub-contractors, suppliers, local agents and nongovernmental organizations are used to prepare the data for the Expert Choice software. As a result, Moldova is selected as the most suitable country for the construction investment.To define with what resource would be used to finance the project, Kepner-Tregoe Matrix is used and thus the owners?s equity would be found as the most suitable resource of investment.To double-check the risen ideas, the company?s board of management is gathered to shoot a SWOT analysis to see the pluses and minuses of the ideas. And consequently, the board of management must decide the benefits of this investment will be more than its losses, as the company concerns about finance the most amongst of all the other factors.To minimise the overlook, the company must grade its ideas by questions and made yes/no analysis. As a result the investment should have seemed desirable. And then the Moldovan construction industry is deeply investigated to understand profitabilty and workability in this country. It is realised that new construction rates are lower than as it must be, however the demand for new buildings is high and with the new laws and regulations about construction will improve construction industry rapidly.A mid-sized Turkish construction company must begin its activies to secure its position in Moldova. Despite the construction industry is not where it must be, the next five years will be a big push upwards.Within the near future, there will be new laws and regulations on construction and energy saving which will lead to a huge amount of cash flow in the country. After all of the analyses, Republic of Moldova is chosen for prospective projects even though it does not seem as the most profitable project in terms of finance.In an effort to verify the adopted decision whether it is beneficial for the construction company, Moldova construction industry is deeply investigated and it is seen a project in Moldova might be feasible.In the sixth chapter, a comparison study is performed to compare the company?s existing working area Kahramanmaras in Turkey with Chisinau in Moldova for the future intentions. This comparison is made in bureaucratic, managerial, technical and financial aspects.In the case study, an elaborative comparison is made for the prospective project to clarify whether the construction company will choose to expand to Moldova or prefer to stay in its own precincts. The case study compares town of Kahramanmaras, Republic of Turkey with town of Chisinau, Republic of Moldova in aspects of bureaucratical, managerial, technical and financial views and data.Notwithstanding that as an alternative Kahramanmaras town seems more advantageous in bureaucracital, managerial and technical domains, selection of the Chisinau alternative would be having a strong influence on the investor to be chosen as it is financially several times more profitable than Kahramanmaras alternative.Consequentially, the comparison study demonstrates that decision making of a construction investment depends on multiple criteria, while each criterion has different weights on affecting the decision. In this thesis, the financial criteria is the most efficacious, however not solely enough by itself, hence Chisinau city will be selected for the next construction project of Metsel Construction Co. Ltd. With the latter analysis even though Kahramanmaras is more likely to be chosen, the financial concern is found worthed to choose the first alternative; Chisinau, Moldova. This seems paradoxial as Moldova is not the most profitable country in the Balkans. However, the company is willing to take risk until some acceptable point in proportion with profit, but after some point even the profit is not sufficient for the company to take the risk.While expanding to an unknown land, a mid-sized Turkish construction company will take a lot of risks, but during allocation of these risks; the profit and the workability will stand out across many factors such as experience, working scale, scope of work, the official holidays of any of the Balkan countries, slight technical differences on construction techniques, the variabilities about weather condition in each of the countries.But as mentioned before; profit is not enough by itself to venture, however it is not sufficient to avoid the risk, there must be other factors for avoiding the risk. But these factors? weights must be enough for effecting the decision model which is built in this model.Balkan countries are averagely ten to twenty years behind of the Central European countries in many aspects, especially construction industry. But while the eastern part of the Planet Earth is rising up economically, socially and technically, the Balkans will not stay as audience only, it will also join to this improvement and will fight to the last drop of blood to give its citizens a better life.Maybe a small, but a very active country, Moldova will join to this fight in the first frontier, and no matter it takes, the new laws on the construction industry will be released. Therefore all of the construction industry will rise up, and in three to five years this new trend must be caught by the mid-scaled Turkish construction companies, which are willing to participate in the investments in the Balkans.The decision model and the data in this thesis, are based on mathematical and social aspects of construction industry, there are many criteria modules and sub-modules. These modules and sub-modules can be modified, multiplied, verified, minimised and diversified to reach more elegant, accurate, enhanced, trustable, useful and successful results on investment.The author of this thesis aimed to reveal a decision taking model which is very flexible and fluctuant to satisfy the decision maker and to give accurate results. This primary model reaches a certain result which is in the progress of trial. When the results of this trial will be obtained, it can be compared to the decision model and it can be seen if the desired decisions were taken.Amongst eleven Balkanic countries, Moldova seems the most investable country. However it is not the most profitable, or most comfortable, or most popular. The decision making of humankind depend on many variables and each one may give different weight on the decision criteria.