Elektrikli araçlar, elektrikli araç şarj istasyonları ve Türkiye için gelecek dönem elektrikli araç miktarı tahmini
Electric vehicles, electric charging stations and electric vehicle quantity future forecast for Turkey
Yazar: BATUHAN İPEK
Danışman: PROF. DR. ÖNDER GÜLER
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü / Enerji Bilim ve Teknoloji Ana Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2022
Konu: Elektrik ve Elektronik Mühendisliği = Electrical and Electronics Engineering ; Enerji = Energy
Dizin: Elektrikli araçlar = Electric vehicles ; İzdüşüm izleme yöntemi = Projection tracing method ; Şarj istasyonları = Charging stations

Özet:
Elektrikli araçların kullanımı günden güne artmaktadır. Ülke bazlı değişmekle birlikte dünyanın her yerinde fosil yakıt kaynaklı ısıtma, soğutma sistemlerinin yerini ısı pompaları, güneş enerjisi destekli sistemler almaktadır; buna paralel olarak da fosil yakıtlı taşıtların yerini de elektrikli ve hibrit araçlar almaktadırlar.
Elektrikli araçlar genel anlamda üç ana grupta incelenmektedirler: tam elektrikli araçlar, hibrit elektrikli araçlar, şarj edilebilir hibrit elektrikli araçlar. Bu tez çalışmasında tüm elektrikli araç tiplerine genel anlamda değinilerek, ilgili teknik altyapılarına dair detaylar anlatılmıştır. Ayrıca şarj metodlarının ayrıntıları, şarj usullerinin teknik detayları, şarj istasyonu tipleri ve kullanım alanları tanıtılmıştır. Birtakım vaka analizleri ile literatürde yer alan örnekler ile de destekleyerek akıllı şarja yönelik çalışmalar tanıtılmış ve önemi vurgulanmıştır. Kablolu ve kablosuz olarak gerçekleştirilebilen elektrikli araç şarjı, çok komplike elektronik devreler ile verimli, hızlı, güvenli hale getirilebilmektedir. Bu iyileştirme için teknik altyapısı kuvvetli olan güç elektroniği devreleri kullanılmaktadır.
Dünyanın geleceği açısından elektrikli araçlara geçişin çok kıymetli olduğu konusu toplumca kabul görmüş bir gerçektir. Bu sebeple ülkelerin bu enerji geçişi için birtakım öngörüler yaparak geleceğe yönelik tedbir almaları gerekmektedir. Bu sebeple önümüzdeki kısa, orta ve uzun vadede elektrikli araçların miktarının ne olacağı yönünde bir çalışma yapmak ve doğruya yakın bir sonuç tespit etmek karar mekanizmalarının yapacakları çalışmaları destekleyecek nitelikte olacaktır.
Literatürde birçok projeksiyon metodu olmasının yanı sıra, orta ve uzun vade için kabul görmüş olan lojistik büyüme fonksiyonu öne çıkmaktadır. Bu fonksiyon tarihimizde gerçekleşmiş olan teknoloji devrimlerinde toplumun ilgili teknolojileri kabul davranışlarını incelemek için birçok kez kullanılmış ve bu teknolojiler ile bağıntılı olan başka ürün ve hizmetlerin geleceği için de temel teşkil etmiştir. Bu sebeple, elektrikli araçlara geçişin büyük bir devrim olacağı kabul edildiğinde lojistik büyüme fonksiyonunun gelecek yıllardaki, özellikle orta ve uzun vadede, elektrikli araç miktarının belirlenmesi amacıyla kullanılması doğru bir tahmin olacaktır.
Bu tez çalışmasındaki projeksiyon çalışması özellikle elektrikli araç şarj istasyonlarının miktarının, kapasitelerinin, coğrafi noktalarının, sıklıklarının belirlenmesinde önemli bir temel teşkil edeceği açıktır. Yalnızca Türkiye ölçeğinde değil, Avrupa ve hatta dünya ölçeğinde de yararlanılabilecek birtakım projeksiyon çalışması sonuçları bu tez çalışmasında sunulmuştur.

Abstract:
The use of electric vehicles is growing each year especially during the last few years. Depending on countries, fossil fuel-based heating and cooling systems are replaced by heat pumps and solar energy systems all over the world; in parallel with this, electric and hybrid vehicles are taking the place of fossil fuel conventional vehicles.
Electric vehicles are generally divided into three main groups: fully electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. In this thesis, all electric vehicle types are analyzed in general and the details of their technical infrastructures are explained in related chapters.
In addition, the details of charging methods, technical details of charging methods, electric vehicle charging station types and usage areas are introduced. Some case studies and examples in the literature, studies on smart charging were introduced and its importance was emphasized. It has been highlighted that a smart charge control may be useful for electric vehicle drivers to prevent from extremely high electric bills when they are under different tariffs. In some countries peak hours, day time, night time are under different tariffs. Therefore the users (in our case the drivers) are supposed to be motivated to delay their charging needs to the low demand hours. This will make the electrical utility not to be loaded more than expected which will result in high losses, high heat dissipation and cause many problems.
The countries with relatively high potential of prospective electric vehicle drivers have introduced incentives for electric vehicle users. This inecntives might be purchasing improvement and some actions to increase the motivation of the users to purchase electric vehicles. These kind of actions to motivate people to decide to change their cars with electric ones will result in a dramatic increase in electric vehicles, battery production, electric consumption, electric vehicle charging stations. All these are only a part of reasons why a prediction for the future of electric vehicles need to be projected, analyzed and studied.
Wired and wireless electric vehicle charging can be made efficient, fast and safe with very complex electronic circuits. Power electronic circuits with strong technical infrastructure are used for this improvement. Thinking about the users' comfort, wireless charging might give users chance to charge their electric cars without stopping. Imagination of a road with full of wireless primary charging bindings while the secondary bindings are located in the electric vehicles, a user could have chance to drive within a certain velocity range and charge their car without having a break while travelling. Considering that this is not only revolution for electric vehicle charging infrastructure, but also a new era for a vehicle in general. An idea with a photovoltaic
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system supported electric vehicle charging points might be a good topic which fullfils the needs of users.
It is a socially accepted fact that the transition to electric vehicles is very valuable for the future of the world. For this reason, countries need to take precautions for the future by making some predictions for this energy transition.
Considering the importance of the fact that the quantity of electric vehicles may affec many other aspects, making a study on the amount of electric vehicles in the short, medium and long term and determining a close result will support the work of the decision mechanisms. Predicting the quantity of electric vehicles might help governments to take precautions for future and upcoming utility loads. This precautions can be public electric vehicle charging stations, photovoltaic supported electric vehicle charging points, on-road charge point route planning, future energy production facility planning and many more.
In order to predict the quantity of electric vehicles there are many projection methods applied in the literature. Some of them rely on the past data while others rely on surveys. All methods have advantages and disadvantages. Some of them are useful for short-term projections while others are not stable for the short term results and focus on the long term results. Some of them are under trending topics of social scientists while the others are mostly used by engineers, scientists and academic people.
In addition to the many projection methods in the literature, the logistic growth function, which has been accepted for the medium and long term, stands out. This function has been used many times in the technology revolutions that have taken place in our history to examine the acceptance behavior of the society's related technologies and has also formed the basis for the future of other products and services associated with these technologies. For this reason, when it is accepted that the transition to electric vehicles will be a great revolution, it will be an accurate estimate to use the logistics growth function to determine the amount of electric vehicles in the coming years, especially in the medium and long term.
It is clear that the projection study in this thesis will constitute an important basis for determining the amount, capacities, geographical points and frequencies of electric vehicle charging stations. The results of some projection studies that can be used not only in Turkey, but also in Europe and even the world are presented in this thesis.
As a result, a projection work has been conducted in this thesis work in order to predict the future quantity of electric vehicles in Turkey. While calculating the results and verifying the methodologies, there are assumptions, calculations, predictions, data usage from other works conducted in the literature. Especially the most recent studies and researches have been considered as much as possible while preparing this thesis.
After the prediction of the quantity of electric vehicles in Turkey, CO2 emmission subject has been studied and projected. In order to do this, literature data, prediction logic and calculations have been used. Comparison between internal combustion motor vehicles and fully electric battery vehicles have been made and the results have been analyzed.
There are many doors to study more regarding the prediction, adoption of electric vehicles, proportion of hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, and plug in hybrid electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, travel routes of electric vehicle drivers, CO2 emmission comparisons, best-ideal-worst case scenarios. This topic is going to remain being a trending topic for decades. Finally, Turkey is a country where curious and motivated inhabitants live. Therefore, no obstacle is foreseen for Turkey in case of fully electric mobility era transition. The details, projection methods, and literature have been transfered in this thesis work.