Diyarbakır ili için 2015 yılında çöl tozları taşınımının  
BSC-DREAM8b  modeli ile araştırılması
Research of the desert dust transport for Diyarbakır in the year 2015  with BSC-DREAM8b model
Yazar: AYLİN ÜNAL
Danışman: DOÇ. DR. ALİ DENİZ
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Meteoroloji Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı / Atmosfer Bilimleri Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2016
Konu: Meteoroloji = Meteorology

Özet:
Hava kirliliği, insan sağlığı üzerinde ciddi sağlık problemlerine ve ölümlere neden olduğundan dünyada en önemli sorunlar arasında gelmektedir. Dünyada her yıl milyonlarca insan hava kirliliği nedeniyle hayatını kaybetmektedir. Türkiye'de hava kirliliği özellikle 1950'lerden sonra nüfusun artması, kırsal bölgelerden şehirlere göçün artması, kentlerin büyümesi ve endüstrinin gelişmesiyle sağlık sorunu olmaya başlamıştır. Türkiye genelinde yapılan ölçümler  insanların soluduğu havanın sağlığa zararlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Yapılan pek çok çalışmada, havadaki kirletici konsantrasyonları ile hastaneye başvuruların arttığı gözlemlenmiş ve ölümler üzerinde etkisi olduğu ortaya konulmuştur. 1952 yılının Aralık ayında İngiltere'nin başkenti Londra'da meydana gelen hava kirliliğinin, 5.000 kişinin ölümüne neden olarak, insan sağlığı üzerinde ciddi sonuçlara sebep olduğu görülmüştür.
Güneydoğu Anadolu bölgesinde hava kalitesi önemli bir endişe kaynağıdır. Bölgedeki  PM10 konsantrasyonları, AB ve Dünya Sağlık Örgütü (WHO)'nün sağlığın korunması için belirlenen standart sınır değerlerin oldukça üzerindedir. Çalışma bölgesi olan Diyarbakır ilinde,  nispeten artan sanayileşme, ısınma, artan araç sayısı ve doğal yollarla meydana gelen çöl tozlarının taşınımı hava kalitesini etkileyen en önemli unsurlardır. Diyarbakır coğrafi konumu ile çöl bölgelerine yakın olması, taşınımı engelleyecek bir orografik engelin olmaması, Orta enlem siklonlarının geçiş güzergâhında ve Batı rüzgârları kuşağında bulunması nedeniyle çöl tozu taşınımından önemli oranda etkilenmektedir. Buna bağlı olarak, Diyarbakır'da çöl tozlarının etkisinin bu kadar fazla olması insan sağlığını olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. 
Yüzey alanı ve nüfusu ile Türkiye'nin en kalabalık 12. şehrini temsil eden Diyarbakır ili Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesinde yer almaktadır. Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi (GAP) Türkiye'de bugüne kadar hazırlanan bölgesel kalkınma projeleri arasında en dinamik olarak hayata geçirilen bir projedir. Diyarbakır ayrıca mutfağı, kültürü ve tarihi yapıları ile Dünya kültüründe hızla önem kazanmıştır. UNESCO tarafından Hevsel bahçeleri ve kalesi ile Dünya miras listesine alınan Diyarbakır turizm açısından da önemli bir yere sahiptir. Bu nedenle Diyarbakır'ın hava kalitesi oldukça önem taşımaktadır. 
Bu çalışmada, Diyarbakır'da çöl tozları taşınımının detaylı bir şekilde araştırılması için 2015 yılında farklı mevsimlerdeki episod dönemleri incelenmiştir. Kış, yaz ve sonbahar olmak üzere üzere üç farklı episod dönemi belirlenmiştir. Farklı mevsimler seçilmesindeki amaç episod dönemlerindeki kirlilik durumunun daha detaylı bir şekilde incelenmesidir. Çalışmanın temel amacı, üç farklı episod dönemi için BSC-DREAM8b toz taşınımı tahmin modeli çıktılarının ve üç farklı mevsime ait toz taşınım olaylarının meteorolojik koşulları ile detaylı olarak incelenerek analiz edilmesidir. Episod günlerine ait atmosfer koşulları sinoptik ve yukarı atmosfer haritaları ile ayrıntılı bir şekilde incelenmiştir. Böylece, BSC-DREAM8b modelinin episod dönemlerindeki toz taşınımını yakalama performansı ortaya konmuştur. Üç farklı mevsime ait episod dönemleri olması modelin performansını değerlendirmede avantajlı olacaktır. Bunlara ek olarak, episod dönemleri için NOAA HySplit model çıktıları ile geri yörünge analizi yapılmış ve toz taşınımının etkisi ortaya konmuştur. Çalışmada ayrıca, model çıktıları EUMETSAT MSG toz ürünleri ile karşılaştırılıp detaylı olarak yorumlanmıştır.
Çalışmada, Diyarbakır  hava kalitesi ölçüm istasyonundan alınmış, 2015 yılı boyunca ölçülen PM10 değerleri kullanılmıştır. Diyarbakır iline ait  rüzgar hızı ve yön bilgileri Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğünden alınmıştır. 
Hava kirliliği ile ilgili yapılan model çalışmaları ile, kirliliğin yoğun olmasının beklendiği günlerde, çevrede meydana getireceği etkiler göz önüne alınarak özellikle yaşlı, hasta ve çocukların dışarı çıkmaması için kamuoyunu bilgilendirilerek insanların ve çevrenin kirlilikten korunması amaçlanmıştır.

Abstract:
Air pollution is a major concern throughout the world which is causing serious health problems on human health. Millions of people lose their life due to air pollution each year. Air pollution is also crucial for all livings including various animal and plant kinds. Many governments and institutions have made regulations towards restricting air pollution caused by unrestrained increase of population growth and industry. It is intended to defend entire living creatures and environment from effects of air pollution by the help of these regulations controlling air pollution emissions. Air quality standards are regulated by a number of organization and institutions like U.S. EPA, (United States Environmental Protection Agency), WHO (World Health Organization), EU (European Union) Air Quality Framework and additional directives. Air quality in Turkey is still a big concern by reason of population increase with demand on consumption of energy such as oil and coal for cars, houses and factories bring about mostly the air pollutants episode. 
As Turkey's economy experienced high levels of growth and both industry and population increased, air pollution episodes in major cities such as Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir became the main topic of conversation in 1950s in Turkey. Air pollution measurements show that air pollution concentrations are at high levels in Turkey. Many studies revealed that there is a close link between pollutant concentrations in the air and hospital admissions and deaths. It is seen that air pollution can result in catastrophic consequences with London episode in December in 1952 approximately 5000 people got sick and died. 
In Southeastern Anatolia Region, air pollution is a considerable source of concern. PM10 concentrations in the region are considerably higher than standard limit values according to EU and the WHO for protection of health. Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) which has been carried out most dynamically among regional development plans and programs prepared up to today in Turkey aims at improving the income level and life quality of people living in the region , reducing regional disparities and contributing to country's economic and social development by mobilizing and utilizing the resources of the region. Diyarbakır which is the most crowded twelfth city of Turkey represents one of the most important cities of GAP because of its overpopulation and surface area. Diyarbakır also has rapidly become significance in that historic buildings, culture and cuisine tourism in world culture. Since Hevsel Gardens and Diyarbakır Castle has registered as world heritage list by UNESCO, Diyarbakır gain attractiveness in tourism for both domestic and foreign tourists. Consequently, air quality has important in terms of living's health, tourism and agricultural activities in the city. Some factors contribute to air pollution in Diyarbakır such as relatively increased industry, heating, rising transport number and dust transportation which occurs naturally. Diyarbakır is considerably affected by dust transportation because of closeness to the desert region, lack of a topographical barrier to prevent dust transportation, and being located in transition route of mid-latitude cyclones and West wind zone. Human health is influenced negatively due to the high desert dust impact in Diyarbakır.
Impacts of meteorological parameters are also significant in terms of distribution and transport of pollutants. Moreover, air pollution in a city depends on topographical factors except anthropogenic contaminants. The information of which pollutants reached to region and how do they reached can be obtained by examining meteorological parameters and topography together. In this way, it can be known which weather conditions affect air pollution in advance. Therefore, a control mechanism can be developed and precautions can be taken.
In this study, episode periods in different seasons are analyzed to investigate dust transportation in Diyarbakır city with a detailed study for 2015. Hence, three separate episode periods are determined as winter, summer and autumn season. The reason for choosing different seasons is to examine dust transportation effect both for common dust transportation season as summer and autumn and for the different atmospheric conditions in winter. Episode periods is choosed according to EU limit values. The intendment of showing regard to EU limit values is the plan of having same EU limit values in Turkey by 2019 year. The main purpose of the study is to analyze outputs of BSC-DREAM8b dust transport forecast model for three different episode periods with meteorological conditions in detail. Atmospheric conditions belonging to episode periods are examined with synoptic maps and upper atmosphere maps provided by Wyoming University. In this way, performance of BSC-DREAM8b dust transport forecast model is revealed by simulated pollution situation in episode periods for three different seasons. Also, having three different seasons is advantageous in evaluation of the model performance. In addition to that, dust transformation effect is proved with back trajectory analysis by using NOAA Hysplit model outputs for these periods. Furthermore, BSC-DREAM8b dust transport forecast model outputs are compared with EUMETSAT MSG dust outputs in detail.
Air pollution data for PM10 throughout 2015 is obtained from Diyarbakır Air Quality Monitoring Station which is established by Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. Meteorological parameters of wind speed and wind direction belonging to Diyarbakır city also are provided from Turkish State Meteorological Service connected to Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization.
Air is an important factor for the human health since people is directly affected by the air. PM (Particulate matter) is one of the most important pollutants reducing air quality. Desert dust particles which are mixed into the atmosphere are transported to far regions by winds. Due to the wet and dry deposition, the desert dust particles significantly influence the environment which we live in. Therefore, the analyzing of desert dust transport is very important.
In this study, three different episode periods belong three different seasons as winter, summer and autumn to investigate of the desert dust transport and sources in detail in Diyarbakır. The reason for choosing three different seasons is to examine dust transformation effect in air quality. Therefore, the study is focused on the dates of 11 February 2015, 29 June 2015 and 7-10 September 2015. For three different episode days, performance of BSC-DREAM8b dust transport forecast model is evaluated. Each episode days, Pearson correlation coefficient is accounted. Moreover, time series are given in graphic. Our model was run episode days from one day before at 12Z. 
In winter season, Pearson correlation coefficient is accounted as r= 0.83 between BSC-DREAM8b model outputs and observation data of 10-11 February 2015 for 3 hourly intervals for PM10 concentrations. Consequently it can be said that there is too strong positive correlation between observation data and model outputs. The model relatively underestimated pollutant observation concentrations. However, model captured high concentration values in Diyarbakır. Also, the model captured the increase and decrease of the dust concentrations in a good way for 10-11 February 2015.
In summer season, Pearson correlation coefficient is accounted as r= 0.0072 between BSC-DREAM8b model outputs and observation data of 28-29 June 2015 for 3 hourly intervals for PM10 concentrations. In this case, between station data and model forecasts for PM10 concentrations show that weak positive relationship. Also, the model results for 10-11 February are better than the 28-29 June model outputs data. But we can say that, 28- 29 June in the model relatively captures peak values. Despite having a lower Pearson correlation coefficient for the June episode day, it can be said that BSC-dream8b Model estimated the desert dust transport. 
In autumn season, Pearson correlation coefficient is accounted as r= -0.24488 between BSC-DREAM8b model outputs and observation data of 7-10 September 2015 for 3 hourly intervals for PM10 concentrations. In this case, between station data and model forecasts for PM10 concentrations show that weak negative relationship. The model relatively underestimated pollutant observation concentrations. However, model captured general dust transportation risk in terms of dust shape and value. Dust transportation is also seen in satellite outputs and wind direction as meteorological parameter also supports dust transportation in autumn episode days because of having southern winds. Despite the fact that autumn episode days have a lower Pearson correlation coefficient for the day, it can be said that BSC-dream8b Model estimated the desert dust transport. 
Consequently, when we compare the observations data with model results for the both episode days, we can say that the model outputs underestimated the data of the station. However, model detected the increase and decrease of the dust concentrations in a good way. It can be said that desert dust transport was estimated by BSC-DREAM8b Model. 
This study aims to provide a guide for similar studies in the future. In addition, it can provide more consistent results for testing products for the other meteorological models. These kinds of studies which are about air pollution are also aimed to protect public (children, old, sick people) by providing information about pollutant concentrations for cities.