Raylı sistem projelerinde fizibilite raporlarının değerlendirilmesi
Evaluation of feasibility reports on railway systems
Yazar: YUSUFCAN AYAN
Danışman: DR. ÖĞR. ÜYESİ PELİN ALPKÖKİN
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Raylı Sistemler Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2018
Konu: İnşaat Mühendisliği = Civil Engineering

Özet:
Ulaştırma projeleri, ülkelerin ekonomik, sosyal ve politik yapılarına doğrudan etki eden yapılardır. Bir ülkenin gelişmişliğinin bir göstergesi olan güçlü ulaşım ağı, farklı ulaştırma sistemlerinin birbirleriyle entegre bir şekilde çalışmasını gerektirir. Bu entegrasyon, ulaştırma ağı içerisinde ki en ufak birimden genele doğru dengeli bir biçimde yayılmalıdır. Raylı sistemler de bu ağ içerisinde oldukça önemli bir yer tutmaktadır.  
Çevreye duyarlı, hızlı, güvenilir, kaza riski düşük raylı sistem projeleri, her zaman olduğu gibi günümüzde de oldukça rağbet gören ulaştırma projeleridir. Hızlı gelişen teknolojiye gösterdiği duyarlılık ile ileride de aynı ilgiyi göreceği bir gerçektir. Şehirlerarası yük ve yolcu taşımacılığındaki yüksek performansı ve şehir içi taşımacılığında, konfor ile birlikte yolculuk sürelerini kısaltarak ekonomiye yaptığı katkı göz önüne alındığında ulaştırma yatırımları arasında öne çıkması şaşırtıcı değildir. 
Yatırım maliyetleri, diğer ulaştırma projelerine oranla yüksek gibi görünen raylı sistem projeleri, iyi bir planlama, bölgesel şartları ve talebi iyi analiz etmek suretiyle ülke ekonomisine büyük katkılarda bulunabilir. İşte bu noktada devreye giren fizibilite raporları, doğru yatırımı yapmak adına en iyi yol göstericidir. Planlanmakta olan bir raylı sistem projesi için karar verici kurum ve eğer varsa bu yatırıma ödenek sağlayacak organizasyon ve bankalar için  fizibilite raporları olmazsa olmaz çalışmalardır. Bu tez, raylı sistem projeleri için hazırlanan fizibilite raporlarının kritik noktalarını anlamak için hazırlanmış bir çalışmadır.
Bu tez kapsamında raylı sistem projeleri için hazırlanacak olan fizibilite raporlarının bir proje için önemine değinilmiş, çeşitli kaynaklar incelenerek hangi kısımlardan oluşması gerektiği, hangi verilerin, hangi matematiksel yöntemlerle yorumlanması gerektiğine dair bir araştırma yapılmıştır. Bu konuyla ilgili yazılmış kitaplar haricinde, projelere kaynak sağlayan organizasyon ve bankaların hazırladıkları fizibilite raporu hazırlama rehberleri incelenmiş olup ekonomik ve mali fizibiliteler için hangi parametrelerin önemli olduğunu belirlemeye ve bu parametrelerin fizibilite raporları içerisinde nasıl sağlıklı bir şekilde kullanılabileceği araştırılmıştır. Daha sonra bu bilgiler ışığında, Türkiye'de daha önce çeşitli raylı sistem projeleri üzerine yapılmış olan fizibilite raporlarından bazıları toplanıp, incelenmiş, içerdikleri veriler birbirleriyle kıyaslanmış ve bu kıyas sonucu hangi parametrelerin sonuca daha çok etkisi olduğu incelenmiştir

Abstract:
Transportation projects are the constructions which will affect countries economic, social and political structures directly. Strong network and connectivity of different transportation systems is the proof of the developed countries. This integration and connectivity must be equally distributed from start to the end in these transportation systems. Railway Systems also took an important place in this network and structures.
Nature friendly, quick, safe and accident minimized railway system projects are one of the most efficient and preferred transportation projects in the present day. We can also say that it will get the similar importance in the future because of the correlation with the technology. The performance that shows as an intercity passenger and cargo carrier, railway system always be one of the most preferable way. Also in the cities, it makes a lot of difference by making transportation comfortable and less time consuming for the people. Therefore, it is easy to see the reason why it is the most popular among transportation development investments.
It is possible to say that railway projects are slightly expensive than other transportation projects but with a proper plan, analyzing the area and the demand, these projects will bring more benefit than expected in long run to regions social, economic and political structure. Within this point feasibility studies will play a big role for to be able to make the correct investment.
Within this thesis;
-	importance of the feasibility studies for a project,
-	chapters of the project,
-	the data which will be analyzed by mathematical methods,
-	how to evaluate and analyze the conclusion of the study,
The information, suggestions and analyze given for above subject and also highlighted the parameters for economic and financial feasibility studies.
Also, you can find the collection of some example feasibility studies in Turkey which created earlier. The studies analyzed and stated the parameters affecting conclusion the most.
After the first chapter where it is explained the purpose of the thesis and the sources that have been used for the thesis, the second chapter gives a brief information on the definition and philosophy of feasibility reports, where and why feasibility reports are needed. It is also explained what project means for feasibility reports and the stages of projects. Scenarios -with or without projects- are vital for feasibility reports. The choice of scenario can change the way of conducting a feasibility report entirely. Therefore, it is explained how to choose the scenario for a feasibility report and how to conduct it according to the chosen scenario or scenarios.
The following chapter introduces and explains the mathematical formulas and the concepts such as opportunity cost, willingness to pay, discount rate, net present value, cost-benefit ratio, internal rate of return, sensivity analysis et cetera. Opportunity cost is a strong concept in a feasibility report which lets to compare a project or projects according to the choice of the scenario and the mathematical equations gives the data for it. In this chapter, it is also explained how to determine the financial and social discount rate which is critical for calculating the net present value. Some of mathematical equations, which introduced in chapter three, are tools to interpret the result such as sensitivity analysis. 
The chapter four of the thesis gives us an overview of a feasibility report. Sections which a feasibility report should include are listed in this chapter. Description of the context is the first part of a feasibility report. In this part, description of social, economic, political and institutional contexts are given. Description of the context is followed by definition of objectives which is the part defines needs and requirements according to the social and economic context and out of these objectives project should be identified. Therefore, the next step of a feasibility report is identification of the project in details and show how it fulfills everything which has been define in the preceding part. This part leads us to technical feasibility and environmental sustainability part where demand analysis, option analysis, environmental and climate reports, technical design, project total cost estimations and implementation schedule take part. Demand analysis is really important for the next chapters of the feasibility report because all of the calculation will be done according to the demand analysis. That is why demand analysis should be done correctly and precisely. If there is not a precise demand analysis in that section the rest of the feasibility report will not lead us to right decisions. Demand analysis affects cost and revenue estimations. Option analysis is the part that comparison of projects are given according to scenario. Weakness and strength of the projects should identify clearly here. Environmental sustainability is one of the biggest concern of our modern society so projects should be environmental friendly and reports about that issues should be added to the feasibility reports. Technical design of the project which is designed according to the demand analysis should be in that part with detailed cost estimation and implementation schedule. 
The next part of this chapter of the thesis focuses on financial feasibility. It starts with the methodology of the financial analysis like which mathematical equations that is introduced previous chapters should be used during that phase of the feasibility report. The chapter goes on with which costs and revenues should be added to the calculations such as investment cost, replacement costs, residual value, operating costs et cetera. Sources of financing, financial profitability, financial sustainability and financial analysis in public private partnership projects are also mentioned in this part. The fourth chapter ends with the economic feasibility part. In this part, fiscal corrections are explained which is necessary to conduct an economic analysis. Conversion from market prices to shadow prices is also explained in this part. Shadow pricing helps to add costs or revenues which are distorted by market or corrupted economies or convert the values are not in monetary terms already. The next part of the chapter explains the economic analysis in details. 
The successor chapter is feasibility reports on transportation projects. Detailed information how to conduct feasibility reports on transportation projects explained by the light of the previous chapter. It starts with description of the context, definition of objectives and project identification parts. Demands analysis for the transportation projects are really important for the feasibility reports. Next part of the chapter gives the factors that affects the demand analysis, methodology of it, how to use data which are collected for this purpose and how to use outputs of the analysis. Financial analysis of transportation projects is also explained in this chapter. Investment cost calculations, operation and maintenance costs and revenues are explained in details. Economic analysis is a sensitive part of feasibility reports on transportation projects. Many transportation projects are not feasible in financial ways but transportation projects are important for the society and economy of a country. That is why all the benefits which are occurred by the transportation projects should be involved during the economic analysis. 
One of the most important benefit of a transportation project is shorten the travel time so it should be added to economic benefits. In this part of the chapter it is explained how to calculate the value of time and add to the calculations. Beside of travel time calculations, road users vehicle operating costs, operating costs for service carriers, accident costs, noise, air pollution, climate change costs are also explained in the way of calculating them into monetary terms. The chapter ends with the ways of risk assessment. 
The next chapter is feasibility reports on railway system projects. In this chapter, everything explained the last two chapter narrows down to the railway system projects. Investment costs, operating and maintenance cost, revenues are explained and their components are given according to railway system projects. Also the part of the economic analysis explains the way to conduct it according to railway system projects.
The following chapter is focused on the feasibility reports on railway system projects in Turkey. There are different kinds of projects both urban and intercity lines. The main purpose of this chapter is finding out the weakness and strengths of the feasibility reports. Some parameters that are included to feasibility reports affect the result more than the others. Therefore, all parameters are investigated on the result changing capacity of theirs. Also, it is investigated that the factors which have effects on the parameters. It is also a concern of this chapter that comparing the assumptions with the real data and how it really affects the feasibility report. 
After all these chapters, in the conclusion part, it is stated that some of the parameters which are used for feasibility reports have more effects on result of the reports. Therefore, there are also some suggestions that strengthen up feasibility reports against these parameters which are demand analysis, value of time. Because during the comparision of the feasibility reports part of the work, it is realized that high value of time ratio in total benefits makes projects economic analyze fragile according to risk assesments.
Feasibility reports have such an important role for investments. Especially when it comes to transportation projects ,that affect countries both in economical and financial way, feasibility reports which are done with precise and correct data are extremely crucial for both decision makers or financial instutions. Therefore, railway system investments need feasibility reports which are done meticulously