2009-2017 tarihleri arasında Avrupa'ya giden göçmenlerin göç rotalarının CBS kullanılarak görsel analizi
Visual analysis for migration routes of immigrants who have gone to Europe between 2009 and 2017 using GIS
Yazar: GÜNEYİ VURAL
Danışman: DR. ÖĞR. ÜYESİ AHMET ÖZGÜR DOĞRU
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Bilişim Enstitüsü / Bilişim Uygulamaları Ana Bilim Dalı / Coğrafi Bilgi Teknolojileri Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2018
Konu: Coğrafya = Geography ; Demografi = Demography
Dizin: Coğrafya = Geography ; Göçler = Migrations ; Nüfus = Population

Özet:
Göç insanlık tarihi kadar eski bir kavram olmakla birlikte bir yerden başka bir yere kalıcı ya da geçici olarak gitmeyi ifade etmektedir. Her dönem için farklı anlam kazanmasına rağmen günümüzde göç olgusu özellikle savaş ya da doğal afet gibi nedenlere bağlı olarak gelişmemiş ya da gelişmekte olan ülkelerden gelişmiş ülkelere doğrudur. Bununla birlikte daha genel olarak göçlere neden olan itme ve çekme faktörleri bulunmaktadır. Bunlardan itme faktörleri; Güvenlik problemleri, yüksek suç, özellikle kırsal kesimlerde üst üste yaşanan ürün telefleri, kuraklık, sürekli yaşanan taşkınlar, fakirlik ve savaştır. Çekme faktörleri ise; iş bulma kolaylığı, refah seviyesinin yüksek olması, iklim şartlarının iyi olması, daha güvenli ve az suç oranı, politik olarak istikrar, verimli topraklar, doğal afet riskinin daha az olması vb. dir.
Günümüzde göç olgusunun en yoğun yaşandığı bölgelerin başında Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri gelmektedir. 2011 yılında başlayan ve Arap Baharı olarak nitelendirilen Kuzey Afrika ve Ortadoğu'daki siyasal istikrarsızlık ve çatışmalı duruma bağlı olarak bu bölgelerden Avrupa Birliği ülkelerine sürekli göç yaşanmaktadır. Bu göçlerin nedenleri arasında coğrafi yakınlığın payı büyüktür. Göçlerin yoğunlaşmasına bağlı olarak geçişlerin nispeten daha kolay olduğu yerlerde göç rotaları oluşmuştur. Bu rotalar özellikle kaçakçılar tarafından yoğun bir şekilde kullanılmaktadır.
Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri göç çalışmaları açısından oldukça yararlı bir araç olarak kullanılabilmektedir. Bu özelliğine rağmen göç çalışmalarında CBS tabanlı pek fazla çalışma yapılmamıştır. CBS'nin en büyük yararı farklı verileri bir arada toplaması ile doğru analizlere imkân sağlamasıdır. Tez kapsamında yapılan çalışmada ulaşılan sonuçlar CBS'inden yararlanılarak ulaşılmıştır. 
Çalışmada ArcMap 10.2 kullanılmıştır. Çalışma alanı göçlerin nihai varış yeri olan Avrupa'dır. Bununla birlikte kaynak ülkeler ise büyük oranda Afrika ile Ortadoğu başta olmak üzere Asya ülkeleridir. Frontex ve IOM (Uluslararası Göç Organizasyonu) gibi farklı kurumlar tarafından göç rotaları belirlenmiştir. Çalışmada bu rotalar referans olarak kullanılmıştır. Bununla birlikte sadece rotalar belirlenmemiş olup bu rotaların tercih sebepleri de (coğrafi yakınlık ve çatışmadan kaçmak vb.) belirlenmiştir. Bunlara ilave olarak ülkemizin de içinde bulunduğu Doğu Akdeniz rotası ayrıntılı olarak incelenmiş ve bu rota içinde Türkiye'nin yeri detaylı olarak aydınlatılmaya çalışılmıştır. Doğu Akdeniz rotası içerisinde 10 ülke belirlenmiştir. Bu ülkeler bu rotayı en fazla kullanan ülkeler olmakla birlikte kapsamlı olarak analiz edilmiştir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler: Göç, Göç Rotaları, Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri, Avrupa, Ortadoğu

Abstract:
Migration means moving from one area to Another permanently or temporarily and it dates back to the ages of early homo sapiens. Although it has different means for different eras, today, the migration phenomenon caused by wars and natural disasters and it flows from undeveloped and developing countries to developed ones. In addition to this, in general, there are some driving factors. First of all are security problems, high crime rates, crops fail especially in rural areas, floodings, poverty, and wars. Another driving factors are good job opportunities, high living standard, good weather conditions, more secure places and low crime rates, political stability, fertile lands, low-risk proportion of natural disasters. 
Western Europen Countries Germany, England, France, Spain, İtaly, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium have faced a burst of illegal immigration after Arap Spring, a political and social uprising of people who lived for decades under dictatorial regimes. The geographical proximity of these undemocratic regimes and developed western counties is the main factor for such a burst of illegal immigration. Some migratory routes provide an easy crossing for illegal immigration. Thus, these routes are highly preferred for human trafficking. 
Geographic Informations System (GIS) can be used as a useful to reveal migration routes. In spite of this potential, there is not enough study based on GIS. The most significant advantage of using GIS is the chance of carrying out accurate analyses by combining different kind sources of data together. The results of this dissertation were obtained by using GIS. For example, analyzes like the national income of the top 10 African countries and the number of immigrants in these countries between 2009 and 2017, the ratio of terrorism in 2016 and the total number of immigrants in 2016, the democracy ratios of the selected countries and the number of immigrants of these countries between 2009 and 2017, ratios of the selected countries' usage of the East Mediterranean Route  to the all other routes were made with CBS technology. These analyzes showed that the reasons like lack of democracy, terror activities and low income were the main driving forces of the immigration.
The aim of the research is a multidimensional investigation of migrations to Europe and its migration routes. Context to this resect first, the areas around the world where people have immigrated to Europe were identified and the reasons for these migrations were revealed. Then the migratory routes were indented and the reason that why these routes were preferred was revealed.  GIS enables to analyze by combining data diversity on the same basis with principles of contrast and suitability. Therefore, GIS was used during identification of migratory routes and the link between the routes and their reasons (conflict, natural disasters or population density etc.) were tried to find out. 
ArcMap 10.2 was used in this study as a GIS software. Immigrant, originated from mostly Africa, Asia and The Middle East The migratory routes were identified by different institutions such as Frontex and IOM( International Organization for Migration). These routes are generally divided into eight: The West Africa Route, The West Mediterranean Route, The Middle (Center) Mediterranean Route, The Crossing Route from Albania to Greece, The West Balkan Route, The East Boundary Route and The East Mediterranean Route. These routes were used as references in this study. In addition to that, not just the routes but also the reasons for the preference of these routes (geographic closeness and escaping conflict) were determined. Also, The East Mediterranean Route which Turkey is involved in was paid more attention and the locations of Turkey in this route was tried to clarify. The reason for the attention is that Turkey is not just a destination but also a transit passing lane. Despite the fact that there are not many people who have migrated from Turkey to Europe, Turkey has a crossing location which intensely used by the migrants preferring The East Mediterranean Route.
One of the most important entry points for illegal immigrants to Europe are the regions close to the Greek islands near Turkey. Right after the deterioration in the security situation in Syria, the increasing demand for transition allowed the dramatic increase in smuggling. The active use of the East Mediterranean route by the Syrians has not led to the opening of a new route. Conversely, this situation resulted in Syrian's addition to the countries Iraq, Pakistan, and Afghanistan which began to use this route on an earlier date. As a result of this, the immigrant population has increased in Turkey which is the most important transit country along this migration road. Another reason for the use of the migration road is that Turkey's border policies' being relatively easier and passing through to Europe by the Aegean Sea is cheaper than other roads. By using the immigrant exit points in İzmir, Çeşme, Dikili, Ayvalık, and Bodrum, hence with relatively cheaper price, thousands of Syrian refugees have utilized a route to the Greek islands like Kos, Chios, and Lesbos.
Ten countries have identified in the range of The East Mediterranean Route. These countries are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Palestine, Somalia, Morocco, Algeria, and Syria. These countries are also the countries that use the East Mediterranean Route at most. This route was mostly used by these ten countries and these were analyzed in detail. People who migrated to Europe are mostly from the countries such as Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq and they prefer to use this route at a massive 80 percent. So, it wouldn't be wrong to say that The East Mediterranean Route is the most significant route among the others. Syria war has a big role for this route. Also, this intensive using increased the importance of the migration studies of Turkey. 
Within the selected countries, there is a considerable increase in immigrant people population. ISIS's activities for escalating the conflict in the Middle East was the main reason for this increase.
West Balkan Route and especially East Mediterranean Route which extends from Turkey to Greece, passes through Turkey and constitutes frequently used routes along migration roads. Thanks to this important role, Turkey has become quite important in terms of migration studies.
The frequency of using routes has risen with the increase of the burst of immigration to Europe after 2011. The intensity of the migratory routes and finding out the changes by years, detection of which countries' citizens preferred to use these routes and why they preferred are the bases of this research.
 
Key Words: Migration, Migratory Routes, Geographic Information Systems, Europe, The Middle East