Türkiye'nin enerji verimliliğinin değerlendirilmesi: Beyaz Sertifikalar Sistemi'nin Türkiye'ye uygulanabilirliğinin incelenmesi
Turkey's energy efficiency assessment: White Certificates Systems and their applicability in Turkey
Yazar: BİLAL DÜZGÜN
Danışman: DOÇ. DR. GÜVEN KÖMÜRGÖZ KIRIŞ
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Elektrik Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2014
Konu: Elektrik ve Elektronik Mühendisliği = Electrical and Electronics Engineering

Özet:
Geçtiğimiz asrın son çeyreğinde yaşanan petrol krizleri sonrası, ülkelerin enerji kaynaklarında dışa olan bağımlılıklarının azaltılması konusu ve çevre problemlerine artan ilgi ile birlikte enerji verimliliği ve enerji kaynaklarının önemi giderek ön plana çıkmıştır. Bu endişeler ülkeleri önlemler almaya iterek, ülkelerin enerji verimliliğine yönelik iddialı hedefler belirlemesiyle sonuçlanmıştır.
Türkiye 2023 yılına kadar enerji yoğunluğunu %20 oranında azaltmayı hedeflemekle beraber, bu hedefe ulaşabilmek amacıyla bütün sektörlerde enerjinin daha verimli kullanılmasını sağlamak için planlar ve stratejiler oluşturmakta ve enerji verimliliğine yönelik finansal mekanizmalar geliştirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Şu ana kadar enerji verimliliğinde önemli adımlar atılarak birçok çalışma gerçekleştirilmiş olsa da, 2023 yılı hedefine ulaşabilmek için piyasa tabanlı politika araçları gibi ilave farklı politikalar göz önünde bulundurulmalıdır.
Piyasa tabanlı enerji verimliliği politikalarından biri olan Beyaz Sertifikalar Sistemi veya diğer bir adıyla Enerji Verimliliği Yükümlülükleri, birçok Avrupa Birliği (AB)  ülkesi tarafından yakından gözlenmekte olup İngiltere, İtalya, Danimarka ve Fransa gibi AB ülkeleri ile Avustralya ve Amerika'nın bazı eyaletlerinde uygulamaya başlamıştır. Sistemin uygulanmakta olduğu ülkelerden elde edilen sonuçlar, önemli oranlarda enerji tasarrufunun Beyaz Sertifikalar Sistemi sayesinde sağlanılabileceğini göstermektedir.
Bu tez çalışması kapsamında, öncelikle Türkiye'nin enerji görünümü ve sektörlerin enerji tüketimleri ele alınarak her bir sektör için enerji verimliliği potansiyellerine yer verilmiştir. Daha sonra, ülkelerde uygulanmakta olan enerji verimliliği politikaları ele alınmış ve Türkiye'nin enerji verimliliği politikasının bir değerlendirilmesi yapılmıştır. Doğrusal programlama tabanlı parametrik olmayan bir yöntem olan Veri Zarflama Analizi'nin (VZA) teorisi açıklanarak, Türkiye'nin enerji verimliliği çalışmalarında nerede bulunduğu ve kaydettiği ilerlemeyi görebilmek amacıyla AB-15 ve Türkiye'nin enerji verimliliği performanslarının kıyaslanmasına yönelik bir VZA modeli oluşturulmuş ve model çıktıları değerlendirilmiştir.
Ayrıca, Beyaz Sertifikalar Sisteminin çalışma prensibi ve Avrupa Birliği ülkelerindeki uygulamaları detaylı olarak açıklanmakla birlikte sektörlerdeki enerji tasarruf potansiyelinin en iyi şekilde değerlendirilmesini sağlamak amacıyla elektrik, doğalgaz ve petrol piyasalarının yapıları göz önünde bulundurularak sistemin piyasa koşulları, yükümlü katılımcıların seçilmesi, piyasa mekanizmalarının belirlenmesi ve piyasa önündeki engeller yönünden Türkiye'ye uygulanabilirliği tartışılmıştır. Tezin son kısmında ise, Türkiye'nin enerji verimliliğinin artırılmasına yönelik genel değerlendirmeye ve önerilere yer verilmiştir.

Abstract:
The last decade has seen an increase in the importance of energy efficiency and the sustainable use of energy resources due to their significant benefits for reducing a country's dependence on foreign energy resources and increasing awareness on environmental problems. To deal with these concerns, countries have started to take actions and set ambitious energy efficiency targets.
Turkey aims to reduce its energy intensity by 20% up to 2023, and in order to accomplish this target, the country plans to use energy more effectively in various industries and develop financial mechanisms for energy efficiency. 
Turkey has highest energy demand growth rate among OECD countries. Moreover, Turkey has a high potential for energy efficiency improvements in industrial, residential and transportation areas. 
Due to its high level of energy consumption, the industry particularly becomes a major target for energy efficiency improvements. Iron and steel, cement, petrochemical, textile and ceramic producers are the main industrial consumers and they have started to recover from their decreased capacity utilization after global economic crisis. 
However, family dwellings, public and commercial services constitute 1/3 of the total primary energy use. Heating has the biggest share in family dwellings, and the rest of the energy consumption rises from lighting, cooling and other home appliances. Energy consumption of residential dwellings is continuously increasing alongside economic growth, rising population and the number of buildings.
Further, changing the mode of freight transport from highways to rail or sea transport offers high energy savings potentials and the usage of highways for passenger transport is as energy efficient as rail transport. Road transportation is determined as the first action area in terms of fuel efficiency in Turkey, due to its high fuel consumption. On the other hand, changing of transportation mode is crucial looking at the Turkey's transportation statistics. Public transportation, car sharing and non-motorized transport offer wide range of efficiency potentials. Another important action for implementation of efficient use of transportation can be done by optimized use of road, traffic and traffic data (designing of advanced traffic management systems).
Although much effort has been made to improve energy efficiency in industry, residential dwellings and transportation, additional policies such as marked-based incentives are still necessary.
This thesis deals with one of the many market-based energy efficiency policies, called Tradable White Certificates or Energy Efficiency Obligations. White Certificates Systems are currently under close observation by several countries, especially in the European Union. 
The selection criteria of design parameters such as identification of the system rules, specifying of targets and obligations, building of monitoring, verification and registration systems and  determination of penalties in case of non-complying obligations of the White Certificates System has major role in achieving the defined objectives of energy efficiency. Market participants of the White Certificates System can be listed as; regulatory authorities, obligated participants, energy service and consulting companies, end-users and other participants such as brokers and financial institutions. 
The regulatory authority is the main participant; who sets the targets and obligations, observes the energy suppliers for their achievement of targets and set penalties in case of noncompliance. Obligated parties (energy suppliers and/or distributors) may request a White Certificates from the regulatory authority or trade certificates valid in the market. End-users perform energy efficiency measures themselves.  Energy service and consulting companies participate in the system after the energy studies are carried out. Although financial institutions and brokers are not obliged to collect White Certificates, they can assign trade certificates in the market.
Some European Union countries such as UK, Italy, Denmark and France have already implemented these White Certificates Systems, as well as various states in the United States and Australia. Results show that significant amounts of energy savings can be reached through the White Certificates System.
The current situation of the energy field in Turkey and energy consumption by industries is presented first in this thesis, followed by potentials for energy efficiency in each industry and energy efficiency policies. 
The target of energy efficiency policy instruments are promoting of energy efficiency by using regulatory, financial, voluntary and market-based objectives. Turkey has taken important steps for the implementation of these policy instruments. Energy Efficiency Strategy Paper, Energy Efficiency Law and its secondary legislation were the milestones for the legislative policy. Industrial enterprises have been supported with grants for the energy efficiency measures and micro credits for the large-scale efficiency measures as a financial policy instruments. In addition, voluntary agreements were implemented to benefit energy savings potential.
Besides, Data Envelopment Analysis type nonparametric linear programming model is introduced to investigate the energy efficiency evaluation research of the European Union-15 and Turkey to see where Turkey stands on energy efficiency. 
For the energy efficiency assessment, traditional methods examine only energy inputs. Nevertheless, production is a technology whose inputs consists combination of energy and non-energy sources and whose outputs desirable and undesirable outputs as well. Labor force and capital with energy produce an economic output and undesirable output such as green gas emissions. Therefore, all these factors should be included in the model established for energy efficiency evaluation research. 
Results of the Data Envelopment Analysis model showed that financial crisis in 2001 strongly affected Turkey's energy efficiency performance. With the establishment of legislative framework after 2007, energy efficiency performance of Turkey showed an important progress over time. Although major progress has been taken, the results of the model emphasize Turkey has the worst energy efficiency performance among all countries. In addition, model implies that countries implemented White Certificates Systems took significant movements and they have a good position compared to other countries.
For this reason, the theory and applicability of a White Certificates System is introduced and discussed in terms of market conditions, choice of obligated participants, market mechanisms and barriers for the Turkish electricity, natural gas and oil market to benefit energy savings potential from the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. 
A White Certificate System can be implemented in Market Financial Settlement Center as an environmental market under the control of the regulatory authority Energy Market Regulatory Authority. Most probable candidates for the obligations are electricity suppliers for the electricity market and distribution companies for the natural gas market and oil market. Additionally, introducing energy service and consulting companies to the White Certificate System will increase the market size and create new work areas for them.
Additionally, close collaboration between related public institutions is necessary to implement the White Certificate System, due its complex mechanism. The big challenge will rise from the high loss & illegal consumption rates, especially in the eastern provinces of Turkey. Dicle, Vangölü and Aras EDAŞ distribution provinces have the highest loss & illegal consumption rates and the establishment of an obligation scheme in these provinces will cause high costs for the obliged participants. If these rates can be reduced to a predetermined amount of rates defined by Energy Market Regulatory Authority in the target electricity distribution provinces, the suppliers in these areas may be included in the system with consideration of their energy consumption or customer numbers. Another possibility is covering only residential use during the transition period. 
However, the White Certificates System has some shortcomings. There is the possibility that the energy efficiency market could turn into an oligopoly or monopoly. Obligated participants may only focus on projects with short pay back periods. Market complexity, lack of information, financing conditions etc. are important problems surrounding this issue.
In the final part of the thesis, evaluations and suggestions for the improvement of Turkey's energy efficiency and assessment of applicability of the White Certificates Systems in Turkey are given.