İstanbul Boğazı yoğun trafik bölgesinin (Güney bölgesi) otomatik tanımlama sistemi tabanlı risk haritasının çıkarılması
Doing risk map of the dense traffic region of Istanbul Strait (South region) based on automatic identification system
Yazar: ADEM VİRAN
Danışman: YRD. DOÇ. DR. CEMİL YURTÖREN
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Deniz Ulaştırma İşletme Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2014
Konu: Denizcilik = Marine

Özet:
Stratejik açıdan önemli bir konuma sahip olan İstanbul Boğazı gerek coğrafi yapısı, gerek deniz trafiğinin yoğunluğu açısından değerlendirildiğinde üzerinde çalışılması gereken önemli bir konu olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Bugüne kadar İstanbul Boğazı denilince daha çok uğraklı/uğraksız gemi geçişleri ve bu gemilerin neden olabileceği kaza senaryoları akla gelmekte, yapılan çalışmalar daha çok bu yönde bir eğilim arz etmektedir. Bu çalışmada ise İstanbul Boğazı içerisinde önemli bir gemi trafik yoğunluğuna sahip olan güney bölgesi gemi trafiğinin mevcut durumu anlatılmış ve bölgenin risk haritası çıkarılarak analiz edilmeye çalışımıştır. Çalışmanın detaylarında İstanbul Boğazı'nın coğrafi ve jeopolitik özellikleri ile hukuki statüsü hakkında bilgi verilmiş, İstanbul Boğazı için gemi geçiş rejimleri incelenmiştir. Yerel trafik unsurları firma ve kapasite bazında ayrıntılı olarak irdelenmiş olup örnek bir yolcu gemisi ön dizaynı yapılmıştır. Yine İstanbul Boğazı gemi geçiş istatistikleri, yaşanan geçmiş kazalar ve diğer çalışmalarından çıkan sonuçlar ile ilgili örnek veriler çalışmada ele alınmıştır. 
Bu çalışmada Risk Değerlendirmesi için ES-Modeli (Çevresel Gerilim Modeli) kullanılmıştır. Bu model Prof. Dr. Kinzo Inoue tarafından ortaya atılmış ve geliştirilmiş bir numerik risk değerlendirme modelidir. ES-Model metoduyla Güney Bölgesinde mevcut deniz trafiğinin risk analizinde; bir geminin topoğrafik unsurlar ve trafik içerisinde bulunan gemilerle olan potansiyel çatışma tehlikelerinin gemi adamı üzerinde ortaya çıkarmış olduğu gerilimler olan ESL (Environmental  Stress of Land) ve ESS (Environmental  Stress of Ship) değerleri hesaplanmıştır.  ESL ve ESS gerilim değerlerinin birbirine eklenmesi ile toplam gerilim değeri olan ESA değeri bulunmuştur. ES-Model ile elde edilen ESL, ESS ve ESA değerlerine ait gemi seyir iz grafikleri ve manevra zorluk grafikleri düzenlenmiş ve analiz edilmiştir. Bu gerilim değerleri gerçek zamanlı yaşanan trafiğe ait datalardan yola çıkılarak hesaplanmıştır. 2011 yılı ağustos ayı içerisinde 1 günlük gerçekleşen trafiğe ait AIS (Otomatik Tanımlama Sistemi) dataları bu çalışmanın temelini oluşturmaktadır. AIS sistemi IMO tarafından uygulanan bir deniz/seyir güvenlik ve gemi-sahil tabanlı bir gemi trafik izleme sistemidir. 
Çalışmamızda yer alan bir günlük AIS Datası; uğraklı/uğraksız geçiş yapan gemiler, yolcu ve balıkçı tekneleri, römorkörler, kılavuzluk ve hizmet gemileri, gezi tekneleri ve özel yatları kapsamakta olan 500'e yakın geminin oluşturmuş olduğu yaklaşık 150.000 hareketten oluşan bir raporlamadır. İstanbul Boğazı yoğun trafik bölgesi olan güney bölgesine ait risk haritası, bu bölgede gerçekleşen gerçek gemi hareketlerine ait AIS dataları ile çıkartılmış olup gerilim değerlerine göre hangi risklerin kabul edilebilir, hangilerinin kabul edilemez oldukları görülmüştür. Risk haritasına göre; Kadıköy boğaz hattı giriş ve çıkışları civarı, İnciburnu mendireği geliş gidişleri civarı, Harem arabalı vapur iskelesi civarı, Sirkeci-Eminönü-Karaköy bölgesi, Üsküdar-Kabataş-Beşiktaş güzergahları üzeri, tafik ayrım şeridi hattı, güney trafik ayrım şeridi giriş ve çıkışları ile işaret şamandıralarının olduğu bölgelerin kabul edilemez risk grubunda olduğu, diğer bölgelerin ise kabul edilemez risk grubunda kaldığı görülmüştür. Yine elde edilen risk haritasından yola çıkarak yaşanan geçmiş kazalar da dikkate alındığında deniz trafik yoğunluğu açısından oldukça büyük bir paya sahip olan Boğaz Güney Bölgesinin aynı zamanda muhtemel tehlikelere sahip en riskli bölgelerden biri olduğu teyit edilmiştir.

Abstract:
Having strategically important location the İstanbul Strait - which is to be investigated emerges as a significant matter when evaluated for both geographical structure and maritime traffic density. So far, transit vessels and potential accident scenarios have come to mind and when it's talked about the Strait of Istanbul, and studies tend to have been done in this context. In this study unlike this, the current situation of the maritime traffic in the south region -which has considerable density of traffic, was approached and the risk map of the region was analyzed..
In this study, after giving general characteristics of the İstanbul Strait, the current stiutaion of the elements of the marine traffic was examined especially in heavy traffic zone. The accidents occurred in the Istanbul Strait were examined briefly and the causes were investigated.  
In addition, having identified the relation between the situation - caused by increasing passenger and maritime traffic in accordance with increasing city population, and movement of real-time local and stop over/nonstop over traffics, and also taking into account the interaction of other factors, the risk map of the region was made by ES-Model Risk Assessment Method (Environmental Stress Model) based on Automatic Identification System (AIS).
The İstanbul Strait one of the world's most important natural waterways with its geographical structure, narrowness, strong currents, sharp and curved turns, variable climatic conditions, intensive maritime traffic and its passing through Istanbul -a major metropolitan city.
Istanbul Strait is affected by dense fog in spring and autumn, and rain, snow and strong north winds in winter. Flow velocity in the throat during the winter from 6-8 nautical miles and strong Orkoz currents negatively affect the maritime traffic in the Strait of Istanbul. Currents in the strait can be sorted as surface (top), bottom, whirlpool (inverted), and Orkoz current.
Existing marine traffic in the Istanbul Strait -a narrow waterway, consists of stop over/nonstop over vessels and local marine traffic. The stop over/nonstop over vessels and local traffic are operated in accordance with the Montreux Convention signed in 1936, and safety rules concerning navigation, life, property and environmental were regulated within the framework of TBDTDT (Turkish Straits Maritime Traffic Regulations). 
Some of the obligations brought by these rules and regulations to the Istanbul Strait are briefly described. In accordance with the local maritime traffic guideline prepared in this context, the rules to be obeyed by the cruising vessels were tried to be controlled.
On the other hand, it is impossible to distinguish the local marine traffic and stop over/nonstop over vessels. In average almost 150 daily, 4000 monthly and annually 50,000 ships in total pass through the Istanbul Strait. By adding nearly 2,500 local daily traffic to this number, a number of hazards can arise inevitably.
For the Turkısh Straits in the view of TBDTDT, the stop/nonstop over vessels over 20 m are accepted "active participant", the vessel under 20 m and all the local traffic ships are accepted "passive participant" in the marine traffic. Turkish Straits are controlled by TGH. With the un-man traffic observation stations, the stop/nonstop over ships have to send SP1 and SP2 reports to TGH
Based on the local traffic lines in the Strait, one can easily say that the traffic intensity ratio in south region of the strait increases to 95%. Most of the vessels navigating as the local traffic move on a traffic lane. In this study, the number of vessels that composes the local traffic is provided by the companies they are affiliated and technical specifications of them were described.
Also, pre-design parameters of a model vessel that can be constructed in accordance with the capacities of the current vessels operated by the Sehir Hatları Management in the line, were computed. Obtained main dimensions are similar to the size of the ships which can be designed for Istanbul Strait.
In addition, noise, vibration and overall residential design related problems of local traffic components have been described. It's observed that, the piers an important factor of the Strait maritime traffic, are unable to meet the conditions for the current density of vehicle and passengers and insufficient technically and physically. 
Besides, the lines in the Istanbul Strait and their intensities were determined. Total number of total voyages likely to happen in the regular line is over 600,000. The intensity of the south region's traffic is confirmed statistically in with such numbers.
Maritime accidents that occurred in the Istanbul Strait between the years 2009-2012 were analyzed according to the type of vessels, accidents, accident causes and locality. Also major accidents that took place in Bosporus until 2004 and their causes were investigated. Accident causes can be examined in three classes. These are human error, technical malfunctions and natural conditions. It seems that even some language problems can cause significant problems for the captain and the crew.
Between 2006 and 2013, the total numbers of the accidents occurred are 1473 in Istanbul Strait and 1427 in Dardanelles Strait. The numbers of accidents tend to decrease compared to recent years. The majority of accidents that occurred in Istanbul Bosporus were in the areas between Ortaköy-Beylerbeyi and Ahırkapı Lighthouse-İnciburnu Lighthouse, which is located approximately 3.5 miles in length. On the other hand, statistics of maritime accidents experienced in the UK and Germany were given in order to get an idea.
We have used ES risk assessment model which was founded and developed by Prof. Dr. Inoue. In the risk analyzing method obtained from the ES-model, which is the risk analysis of the existing sea traffic in the south zone; the tension that a ships topographic elements and the potential of clash risks with those ships in the traffic creates on the shipman namely the ESL and ESS value has been calculated. The total tension of the shipman was calculated by adding the ESL and ESS values. Out of the environmental factors that the ESL model takes into account (or considers) are; land, shoal, breakwater, buoys, etc. The factors of traffic conditions are traffic flows of the vessels and traffic's situation. Also, the external factors including wind, and the speed of the flow can be seen as (termed as) environmental factors.
The stress values are assessed with a rating scale between 0-6 by seaman. In this study, vessel cruise trail graph and maneuvering difficulty graphics that belong to ESL, ESS and ESA values obtained with ES-Model were organized and analyzed.
The values of these tensions are calculated on from the data gathered from the real-time traffic. The AIS of traffic calculated during a day within August 2011 was the fundamental datum that created the corner stone of this study. The AIS is a sea/course safety system and ship-coast based ship traffic tracking system that is used by the IMO.
As a result, the risk map of the south of the Istanbul Strait intense traffic region, is obtained in accordance with the real AIS data belonging to the traffic, and according to the tension values, which risks are acceptable and which are not were determined. Furthermore, the near miss situations – the conflict positions, are observed on the graphs. 
Especially the risk values of entrance and exit of the local traffic lines that are Kadıköy-Karaköy-Eminönü, Üsküdar-Kabataş-Eminönü, İnciburnu breakwater's vicinity, beginning of the south entrance traffic separation layout and north south stop over/nonstop over separation exit were observed too high.
For the take control of  marine local traffic, an effective administrative structure establishment is needed urgently.  And for the local traffic all the participants must be re-designed for an effective and safe travelling by ships.
Considering the accidents happened throughout the time, high likely damage potential of the south region is confirmed besides its large share in the traffic density of the Strait. Thus, necessary measures and regulations should be in place in order to pull down the existing shortcomings to acceptable levels.