Kapasite artışı projeleri için kompleks sahalarda ölçüm ve SCADA verileri kullanan Wasp ve meteodyn modellerinin performans analizi
Performance analysis of Wasp and meteodyn models using measurement and SCADA data for extension projects in complex terrain
Yazar: MEHMET ÖZKAN BAŞAR
Danışman: PROF. DR. HÜSEYİN TOROS
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Meteoroloji Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı / Atmosfer Bilimleri Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2020
Konu: Enerji = Energy

Özet:
Rüzgâr santrallerinin kurulması düşünülen yerlerde proje öncesi rüzgâr kaynağı değerlendirmesi yapılarak sahanın yıllık potansiyel enerji üretimleri hesaplanabilmektedir. Bu hesaplamalar projeyle ilgili fizibilite çalışmalarını doğrudan etkilemektedir çünkü bir rüzgâr santralinin kurulması sürecindeki ilk ve en önemli nokta rüzgâr kaynağının doğru değerlendirilmesi ve buradan elde edilecek üretim çıktısına göre finansal yatırımların belirlenmesidir. Enerji üretimleri yanlış hesaplanan projelerde enerji verimliliği düşük olacak ve bu da ülke kaynaklarının boşa harcanmasına sebep olacaktır. Enerjide dışa bağımlı bir ülke olduğumuz düşünüldüğünde bu hesaplamaların tutarlılığı hayati önem taşımaktadır.  
Bu çalışmada lineer ve non-lineer akış modellerinin sonuçları için hata değerleri hesaplanmış ve bulunan sonuçlar ışığında kapasite artışı projelerinde SCADA verileri yardımıyla sahanın bölgesel hata oranları hesaplanarak model kalibre edilmiştir. Bu kalibrasyon sonucunda hesaplanan üretimlerinin doğruluğun arttırılması hata oranlarının azaltılması amaçlanmıştır. Lineer model hesaplamaları için Rüzgâr Atlası Analiz ve Hesaplama Programı (WAsP) kullanılırken non-lineer model için Hesaplamalı Akışkanlar Dinamiği (CFD) çözümlemesi yapan Meteodyn yazılımı kullanılmıştır. 
Wasp ve Meteodyn modelleri kullanılarak 6 farklı ölçüm direğinden toplanan veriler yardımıyla 169 farklı türbin noktası için üretim hesaplaması yapılmıştır. İki model de bazı noktalarda çok iyi performans sergilemesine rağmen bazı noktalarda çok kötü sonuçlar yakalamıştır. Bu durum, arazinin kompleks bir yapıya sahip olması ve modellerin bazı noktalarda dağların perdeleme etkisini yeterince hesaba katılamamasından kaynaklanmaktadır. Wasp ve Meteodyn modelleri ile alınan üretim sonuçlarının gerçek üretimden sapmaları ve bağıl hataları hesapladığında tüm santralde Wasp modelinin bağıl hata oranı +%7.02 olarak hesaplanırken Meteodyn modelinin bağıl hata oranları -%1.37dir. Yapılan analizler sonucunda SCADA veriler yardımıyla geliştirilen sistem, tahminlerdeki hata oranını büyük ölçüde azaltmaktadır öyle ki yeni kurulması planlanan 12 türbin için yapılan analizde bağıl hata oranının       -%8.64 ten -%1.52 ye düştüğü görülmektedir. 
Türkiye'de kapasite artışı planlayan çok fazla sayıda rüzgâr santrali yatırımcısı bulunmaktadır ve bu santrallerin büyük bir bölümü kompleks arazilerde yer almaktadır. Bu yöntemin tutarlılığının tespit edilmesinde ayını işlemlerin farklı santrallere uygulanarak gerekli sağlamaların yapılması çalışmanın tutarlılığını arttıracaktır.

Abstract:
In places where the wind power plants are planned to be installed, annual potential production of energy can be calculated by making wind resource assessment. The result of these calculations directly affects the feasibility studies of the projects. Energy efficiency will be low in projects whose energy production is calculated incorrectly, and this will cause the country resources to be wasted. In energy-dependent countries, this is vital.
In this study, error values were calculated for the results of linear and non-linear flow models. In the light of the results, the model was calibrated by calculating the regional error rates of the site with the help of SCADA data for the extension  projects. The aim of this calibration is increase the accuracy rate of production prediction and  decrease the total error rates. Meteodyn software was used for the non-linear model, while WasP were used for linear model calculations. 
This project is located in western Turkey, in the provinces of Mugla. The average altitude at the sites where the wind turbines are installed or expected to be installed is of 821 m above sea level (a.s.l.), ranging from 621 to 930 m a.s.l
For the description of the topography and later use in atmospheric flow simulation softwares, a digitized representation of the terrain is necessary in the form of contour lines. For this project, the digitized topography was prepared based on the topographic information given by the Developer, with contour lines at 5 m intervals, and from the data made available by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), with contour lines at 10 m intervals.
Steep slopes are a matter of great relevance when it comes to the operation of the wind türbines, since they can induce substantial alterations in the incidence angle of the flow at the blades, threatening their performance. In this project despite some areas with steeper slopes, in none of the sites where the wind türbines are expected to be installed slope exceeds the abovementioned 25 % limit
The roughness length, taken as the description of the land coverage, was characterized by defining different terrain surface characteristics. The association between occupation type and roughness values was obtained accordingly to the scale defined by the European Wind Atlas and other sources, varying between 10-4 and 0.80 m. 
For the characterization of the wind regime and for the resource assessment in the area, data collected at six local measuring stations were used: M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6 and M8.  The wind data collected at M4 had been partially influenced by the operation of the existing wind türbines. In order to mitigate the impact of such disturbance in the energy yield estimates some correction was applied.
Taking in consideration the data series extension, the regarding data availability and the station's location, M1 station was selected to be the reference one, comprising the period between February 2009 and November 2017, about 8.8 years, with a good availability, 83 %. None of the other local stations covers such period.
The distribution of the wind resource in a given area can be performed based on the wind atlas determined from a measuring station installed in the area. A wind atlas contains the characterization of the wind regime, classifying the records by direction and wind speed bins, after removing the effects induced by the topography, local obstacles and superficial roughness. The reverse process is applied to determine the wind regime characteristics at the locations where the prediction is being required. The results obtained in the performance evaluation of the atmospheric flow model indicate that WAsP and Meteodyn can be used to estimate the wind regime in the area of the project. Applying the reference data of M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6 stations, in WAsP and Meteodyn, together with previously mentioned digital representation of the terrain.
Production calculations were made for 169 different türbine points with the help of data collected from 6 different measuring met masts using Wasp and Meteodyn models. Although both models performed very well at some points, both of them had very bad results. The reason for this situation is that the land has a complex structure and the models are not able to take into account the shielding effect of the mountains at some points. When the deviations of the results obtained with the Wasp and Meteodyn models from real production are measured, the error rate of the Wasp model in the whole plant is calculated as +7.02%, while the error rates of the Meteodyn model are -1.37%. 
As a result of the analysis, the method developed with the help of SCADA data greatly reduces the error rate in the estimates. Real production values of 169 türbines have been used while calculating the correction factor for the energy generation phase of extension project to reach the most accurate P50 value.
After comparison between actual and modelled data correction coefficient has been calculated for each türbine points that belongs to determined 169 türbines by using deviations on production.
If extension türbines is close to any  installed türbines, estimated correction coefficients will demonstrate the model behaviour in that area. If model under or overestimated in that region according to installed türbines comparison results, correction coefficient applied to extension türbines. Thanks to this way, model mistakes have been partly eliminated. 
In the analysis made for 12 türbines that are planned to be newly installed, it is seen that the relative error rate decreased from -8.64% to 1.52% thanks to this post process methodology. 
The conclusion reached in the scope of this study is that Meteodyn, which is a non-linear model in complex lands, gave a better result than the linear Wasp model. In addition, it is possible to calculate production at much lower errors with the post process method developed by using scada data in capacity increase studies, but using a large number of test scenarios to reach a definitive result will be important to better understand the relationship between the model used and the energy estimation errors.
Lots of wind energy investor are planning to extension for their operationa wind powe plants in Turkey and most of these power plants are located in complex terrains. In determining the consistency of this method, applying the same procedures to different power plants will provide the consistency of the study.