Şebekeden bağımsız bir PV sisteminin simülasyon yazılımları ile boyutlandırılması ve maliyet analizi
Sizing and cost analysis of an off-grid PV system with simulation software
Yazar: İBRAHİM GÜR
Danışman: DOÇ. DR. COŞKUN FIRAT
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Enerji Enstitüsü / Enerji Bilim ve Teknoloji Ana Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2024
Konu: Enerji = Energy

Özet:
Toplumların gelişen teknoloji ile birlikte enerji ihtiyaçları artmaktadır. Enerji alanında önümüzdeki süreçte arz/talep dengesinde olumsuzluklar yaşanacağı varsayılmaktadır. Ülkeler enerji kaynaklarını çeşitlendirmek ve enerji sürekliliğini sağlayabilmek amacıyla çeşitli zorunluluklar getirmekte ve alternatif çalışmaları teşvik etmektedirler. Enerji alanında ülkeler kendilerine yetebilecek hale gelmeyi amaçlamaktadırlar. Ülkeler bu amaca ulaşabilmek için yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarına yönelmiştir.
Yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının kullanılmasıyla CO2 emisyonlarının azalması, kaynakların çeşitliliği (rüzgar, güneş, biyokütle, hidro vb.) gibi avantajlı durumlar vardır. Türkiye, enerji üretiminde rüzgar ve güneş enerjisini kullanma açısından dünyada pekçok ülkeyi geride bırakacak potansiyele sahiptir. Türkiye'de günlük ortalama güneşlenme süresi 7,5 saat/gündür , günlük ortalama radyasyon yoğunluğu ise 4,18 kWh/m2-gün'dür. Bu yüksek değerlere rağmen, Ağustos 2020 tarihinde toplam enerji üretiminin %6.8'i güneş enerjisinden sağlanmıştır. Türkiye zengin güneş kaynaklarına sahip olmasına karşın, kişi başına düşen kurulu güneş enerjisi kapasitesi dünya ortalamasının %15 gerisindedir. Avrupa ülkelerinden İspanya ve İtalya'ya göre ise bu oran %50'nin altındadır.
Bu tez çalışmasında, elektrik dağıtım ağının dışında kalmış, buna karşın güneş radyasyonu açısından verimli olacak bir yerleşim yeri tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Ülkemizde Akdeniz Bölgesinde Antalya ili sınırları içinde bulunan ve elektrik altyapısı olmayan yaşam alanları olup olmadığı araştırılmış ve Konyaaltı ilçesi sınırları içerisinde yer alan Üçoluk Yaylası çalışma bölgesi olarak seçilmiştir.
Şebeke dışı alanlarda yaşayan ve ihtiyaç duydukları elektrik enerjisine erişimi olmayan insanlar için kurulacak PV sistemlerinin tasarımının yapılması ve maliyet – fayda incelemelerinin yapılabilmesi için simülasyon yazılımlarından yararlanılması öngörülmüştür. Bu amaçla, tez kapsamında Homer Pro ve PVsyst programları ile sistem tasarımı yapılmış ve böyle bir sistemin maaliyet analizi yapılmıştır.
Enerji üretecek sistem olarak güneş paneli, batarya ve inverterden oluşan bir PV sistemi tercih edilmiştir. Homer Pro yazılımı, belirlenen elektrik tüketimi göz önüne alındığında sistem komponentlerini, 9,98 kW gücünde PV panel, 66 kWh Batarya ve 5,85 kW kapasitesinde inverter olarak belirlemiştir. Benzer şekilde PVsyst programı ise 9,40 kW gücünde PV panel, 60,5 kWh batarya ve 8,17 kW kapasitesinde inverterden oluşan sistem önermiştir.
Şebekeye bağlı veya şebekeden bağımsız bir sistem tasarımında Homer Pro ve/veya PVsyst gibi yazılımların kullanılmasıyla gerçeğe uygun, hızlı, hassas ve verimli sonuçlar elde edilmesi sağlanacaktır. Örnek binanın yer aldığı kırsal bölgelerin her noktasına elektrik şebekesi ve altyapısının kurulmasının maliyeti karşısında , enerji ihtiyacı olan her bina için şebekeden bağımsız bir elektrik üretim sisteminin kurulması, ülke ekonomisine de ayrıca fayda sağlayacaktır.

Abstract:
The energy needs of societies are increasing with the developing technology. It is assumed that there will be negativities in the supply/demand balance in the coming period in the field of energy. Countries impose various obligations and encourage alternative studies in order to diversify energy resources and ensure energy continuity. In the field of energy, countries aim to become self-sufficient. The fact that natural energy resources are depleting because they cannot be renewed has led countries to renewable energy resources.
Renewable energy sources have advantages such as reducing CO2 emissions, diversity (wind, solar, biomass, hydro, etc.). Turkey has the potential to surpass many countries in the world in terms of using wind and solar energy in energy production. The average daily insolation in Turkey is 7.5 hours/day and the average daily radiation intensity is 4.18 kWh/m2 -day. Despite these high values, 6.8% of total energy production in August 2020 was provided by solar energy. Although Turkey has rich solar resources, its installed solar energy capacity per capita is 15% behind the world average. Compared to European countries Spain and Italy, this rate is below 50%.
In Turkey, energy consumption in off-grid areas is a significant problem. In these areas, energy infrastructure is lacking or limited and access to traditional energy sources can be difficult. Off-grid PV energy systems, the subject of this thesis, appear to have great potential to solve this problem.
Several benefits are expected to be achieved through the studies conducted in this thesis. First, meeting energy needs in off-grid areas can improve the quality of life and welfare of people living in these areas. Off-Grid energy systems can provide an effective solution to meet basic electricity needs by providing a continuous and reliable energy source in these areas. Second, meeting energy needs entirely from renewable energy sources reduces dependence on fossil fuels and provides environmental benefits by reducing carbon emissions, which can be an important step in combating climate change.
The thesis will contribute to the development of renewable energy technologies and provide new insights into the design and optimization of off-grid energy systems. Furthermore, this study can contribute to the shaping of energy policies in Turkey and the development of energy infrastructure in off-grid areas.
In the thesis study, it was tried to determine the region that is outside the electricity distribution network, but will be efficient in terms of solar radiation. It was investigated whether there are living areas without electricity infrastructure within the borders of Antalya province in the Mediterranean Region of our country and Üçoluk Plateau, located within the borders of Konyaaltı district, was selected as the study area.
A house located in Üçoluk Plateau was selected for the sample in order to be close to the real values through the Google Earth program. The coordinate values of the structure in question are 360 43' 15" N, 300 26' 23" E.
In order to design PV systems to be installed for people living in off-grid areas and who do not have access to the electrical energy they need and to make cost-benefit examinations, it was considered to benefit from computer software programs. For this purpose, system design was made with Homer Pro and PVsyst programs within the scope of the thesis.
The coordinate values determined are important for the programs to determine the weather values and solar radiation values. Homer Pro program provides monthly average solar radiation data from NASA's Surface Solar Energy Data Set for the coordinates entered. Pvsyst program has different databases. In the thesis study, the data provided from PVGIS TMY 5.2 database was preferred.
Correspondence was made with various institutions in order to reach the actual electricity consumption amounts of off-grid areas within the borders of Antalya Province. Akdeniz Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş., the Regional Electricity Distribution Company, reported the monthly electricity production and consumption amounts of a building that meets all its energy needs with a system consisting of PV panels and batteries on a monthly basis for 2023. The electricity consumption amounts of the building for 2023 are January 1864.44 kWh, February 1883.03 kWh, March 1311.38 kWh, April 924.02 kWh, May 472.26 kWh, June 215.42 kWh, July 151.77 kWh, August 149.47 kWh, September 178.68 kWh, October 342.37 kWh, November 977.897 kWh, December 1580.66 kWh. When the consumption amounts are examined, it is seen that the consumption reaches the maximum level in January-March and December, which we can call the heating season, and in April and November, which we can call the transition months, consumption is approximately three times the average of the other months. It is calculated that the average daily electricity consumption is 15.23 kWh in May, when the highest electricity consumption is made in the months when there is no electricity consumption for air conditioning purposes.
The average daily electricity consumption for the sample house to be calculated was calculated as 13.70 kWh. The average daily electricity consumption value was entered into the Homer Pro program. In order to enter the daily average electricity consumption value into the Pvsyst program, it was necessary to enter the amount and working hours of the electrical devices to be used.
A design consisting of solar panel, battery and inverter was preferred as the system to generate energy. Homer Pro performed 372 simulations according to the entered data and the preferred design. Of the simulations, 140 were reported to be feasible and the most efficient system design was created. The most efficient system components consist of 9.98 kW PV panel, 66 kWh battery and 5.85 kW inverter.
In order to simulate in the PVsyst program, the azimuth angle must be determined and the angle values of 4 points for the horizon line values must be entered into the system. The azimuth angle was determined as -30 with the help of Google Earth program. For the 4 points required to determine the horizon line, the values on the www.suncalc.org website were used.
In order to get a report in the PVsyst program, 3D modeling of the structure is required. With the help of the Google Earth program, the dimensions of the sample building were measured as 12 meters in length and 12 meters in width. The slope of the roof was determined as 200. The design of the program in this way; It enables the determination of whether the area to be installed is sufficient for solar panels. The placement of solar panels also enables the determination of the time at which the solar panels will start to produce energy and how much energy will be produced at which hours. The Pvsyst program requests that the hours when the devices will be used be entered into the system. Thus, it is determined when the battery group will switch to storage and when it will provide energy.
When the simulation was run in the PVsyst program, a system consisting of a 9.40 kW PV panel, a 60.5 kWh battery and an 8.17 kW inverter was proposed, similar to the Homer Pro program.
After the capacities of the system components were determined, the system cost was calculated. Costs are included in the Homer Pro program and the price / benefit factor plays an important role in the proposed system design. When the costs calculated by the Homer Pro program are checked, it is determined that PV panel prices can be found 80% cheaper and inverter prices 40% cheaper in the market. Battery prices were found to be at market averages. When costing is made according to the new prices determined, it is seen that the system can be created 33% cheaper.
As a result of the examinations, the use of programs such as Homer Pro, PVsyst in grid-connected or off-grid system design will provide realistic, fast, precise and efficient results. In the face of the cost of bringing electricity infrastructure to every point of the rural areas where the sample building is located, the use of artificial intelligence-based programs for every building that needs energy will benefit the national economy.
The support for rooftop PV panels provided by the government in Turkey is under 10 kW. Increasing this limit and increasing the amount of support will increase the demand for off-grid PV panels.