Proje yapım sürecinde risk yönetimi üzerine örnek olay incelemeleri
Case studies about risk management during the progress of project construction
Yazar: ASLI ÖZGE ZABUN
Danışman: PROF. DR. ATTİLA DİKBAŞ
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Mimarlık Ana Bilim Dalı / Proje ve Yapım Yönetimi Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2012
Konu: Mimarlık = Architecture
Dizin: Risk = Risk ; Risk analizi = Risk analysis ; Risk azaltma yöntemleri = Risk reduction methods ; Risk değerlendirmesi = Risk assesment ; Risk değerlendirmesi = Risk assesment ; Risk faktörleri = Risk factors ; Risk tahmini = Risk forecasting ; Risk yönetimi = Risk management

Özet:
Her projede mutlaka risk vardır. Özellikle inşaat sektörünün karmaşık ve öngörülmesi güç yapısı ve her projenin yalnızca bir defaya mahsus, özgün olarak üretilmesi beraberinde proje risklerini getirmektedir. Riskler, projenin öngörülen sürede tamamlanması, belirlenen bütçe dahilinde bitirilmesi ve istenilen kaliteye ulaşılması gibi temel proje hedeflerini doğrudan ya da dolaylı yoldan etkilemektedir. Çoğu zaman bu risklerin projenin başarıyla tamamlanmasını etkilemeyecek kadar küçük olduğu düşünülerek bir takım riskler görmezden gelinmektedir. Fakat başlangıçta küçük görünen ve önemsenmeyen risklerin projenin ilerleyen aşamalarında önlem alınmadığı takdirde büyük sonuçlar doğurabileceği unutulmamalıdır. Risk analizi ve yönetimi her proje için gereklidir fakat; her proje kendine özgü olduğundan çoğu risk de projelere özgü olacaktır. Dolayısıyla risk yönetimini belirli bir çerçeveye oturtmak mümkün olmadığından bir çok proje yöneticisine risk yönetimi kavramı karmaşık gelmektedir. Proje üzerinde kontrol sağlamak amacıyla riski azaltmak için alınan önlemler ve faaliyetler risk yönetiminin temelini oluşturmaktadır.Risk yönetimi proje süreci boyunca tekrarlanması gereken döngüsel bir süreçtir çünkü; riskler sabit değildir. Bazı risklerin proje ilerledikçe etkileri artabildiği gibi, yeni riskler de ortaya çıkabilmektedir. Bu sebeple risk yönetimi proje yönetim süreci içerisinde aktif bir şekilde rol oynamaktadır. Risk yönetimi risklerin tespit edilmesiyle başlamaktadır. Ülkemizde genellikle risk yönetimi, proje yöneticisinin deneyimlerine ve bilgisine göre şekillenmektedir. Proje yöneticisi daha önce çalıştığı şantiyelerde karşılaştığı risk olaylarını öngörerek bu riskleri azaltmak için gerekli önlemleri almaktadır.Bazı riskleri öngörmek neredeyse imkansızdır, bu sebeple proje yöneticisinin risk yönetim kararları çok önemlidir. Tez kapsamında, öncelikle risk, belirsizlik, risk yönetimi, risk yönetim aşamaları ve risk azaltma ile ilgili literatür araştırması yapılarak, bu kavramlarla ilgili bilgiler verilmiştir. Devamında, büyük ölçekli, pek çok farklı türde risk barındıran, farklı fonksiyonlara sahip projeler üzerinde örnek olay incelemeleri yapılmıştır. Böylece 4 ayrı deneyimli proje yöneticisinin riskler karşısında izledikleri tutumlar ve bu risklerin projenin ana hedefleri olan maliyet, süre ve kaliteye olan etkileri ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır. İncelenen projelerle teorik olarak bilinen risk yönetimi üzerine, pratikte örnekler verilerek risk yönetiminin öneminin daha iyi kavranması ve proje yöneticilerinin deneyimlerinin aktarılması amaçlanmıştır. Bu kapsamda proje yöneticileriyle röportajlar yapılarak bitmiş projeler üzerinden, öngördükleri ve öngöremedikleri riskler, bu riskler karşısında izledikleri tutum ve risklerin proje hedeflerine olan etkileri üzerinde durulmuştur. Araştırmanın bulgularına göre proje yöneticilerinin öngördükleri riskler arasında ortak riskler bulunsa da öngörülemeyen riskler daha çok projeye özgü karakter sergilemektedir. Öngörülemeyen riskler genellikle projenin süresini ve maliyetini etkilemektedir.

Abstract:
Every project contains risk. Especially the structure of the construction sector is both complex and unpredictable. Furthermore each project is unique and projects must be constructed in one time. For this reason, there is no standard about risks thus every new project brings out new risks. Risk is inherent uncertainty in the planning and realization probability of an event that may affect the success of the project goal. Risks affect the project objectives which are about cost, time and quality in a direct or an indirect way. Most of the time some risks are ignored because it is supposed to be too small to affect the project success. But in early stages of the project, risks can be seen as small. However no measures are taken, underestimated risks can cause a large consequences in forward stages of the project.Risk analysis and management is required for each project because all projects are unique in itselves most of the risk will also be unique depending on the project. So it is not possible to fit risk management in a certain frame and because of this most of the project managers suppose that concept of risk management is complex by its nature. Risks which are unique for the project are hard to predict but there are common risks which can be come up any construction project. Way to identify and predict risks is limited to experiences of project managers. There are so many countries that professional risk management is applied but especially in Turkey, even well-established construction firms does not give enough attention to risk management so the project manager is totally responsible to manage risks. Measures taken to reduce the risk in order to ensure control over the project is the basis of risk management.In many cases, the most realistic option is to reduce and eliminate threats of risks. It can be done in different ways and methods according to the type of risks. The most important thing to minimize risk is to prove that everything is logical and feasible. The most logical way to develop risk reduction strategies should be based on the risks that especially when resources are limited, the highest probability of happening, if it occurs the most risks can be controlled and the largest results on the project.Last twenty years, many researchers have developed a formal risk management processes and methods in order to control project risks and to improve the performance of the project. All approaches of risk management process are similar, all of them based on risk identification, analysis, answer and control. The purpose of project risk management:?to determine the events likely to affect the foundation of the project scope; quality, time and cost factors?to measure the effect of each possible events?to create a basis for the management of the potential events.?to return controllable risks in our advantageRisks are not constant, risk management is a cyclical process to be repeated throughout the project process. The effects of some risks' may increase as the project progresses and also new risks may occur. Project risk management plan for the emergence of new risks should be revised and renewed constantly. For this reason, risk management plays an active role in the project management process permanently. Risk management begins with analyzing the risks. Risk management in our country generally, is shaped according to the project manager's experience and knowledge. Risks faced by the project manager previously worked at construction means experience. Project managers use their experiences in order to reduce these risks by anticipating events. It is possible to determine the common risk sources. As a result of literature research, these are the title of the source of many different types of risks; exchange rates, inflation, tax rates, laws and regulations, relations with the government, contractor, design, contracting, project scope, construction technology and the organization, materials, equipment and labor supply, soil conditions, location of building area, flood, earthquake, landslide, fire, terrorism, war, adverse weather conditions, logistic.It is almost impossible to predict some risks, therefore, the project manager's risk management decisions are very important. In the scope of the thesis, primarily literature survey about risk, uncertainty, risk management and risk mitigation had done and than information about these concepts is gathered. Subsequently, Case studies are constituted therefore 4 projects which are large-scale, containing many different types of risk, have different functions are handled. Thus, there are 4 different experienced project manager and tried to put out project manager's attitudes in the face of risks, to specify the risks which effects the main objectives of the project such as cost, time and quality and measure the degree of these risks' influence.Risk management, known as the theoretical in order to understand the importance of risk management better, it is aimed to give practical examples from different projects under review thus, project managers can transfer their experiences. All the projects which are chosen have different functions such as housing project, business center project, shopping mall project and hotel project. In this context, on the model of the completed projects, it is focused on the risks which are foreseen and unforeseen, project manager's attitudes, and the degree of risks' influence on the project objectives by using interview technique. According to the findings of the research there are common risks between foreseen risks but especially unforeseen risks exhibit a very specific character so generally they are different in each projects. Unforeseeable risks generally affecting the duration and cost of the project.In conclusion, especially in the construction industry risk management has a major role that is why so many researchers have focused on this subject. There are so many studies on risk management but unfortunately most of them are foreigners. Resources are limited on this subject in Turkey so generally international academic resources are used in this thesis. This thesis includes the literature surveys on risk management and case studies in the construction industry. The research include sources published since 1984. The purpose of this study is to examine the construction process of large-scale architectural projects. It is aimed to understand what the project managers' attitudes, in view of the emerging risks under construction are and how these risks are managed. And it is also aimed that to determine the effects of risks on the project objectives through examples which are large-scale projects. A framework can be created from foreseeable risks in the projects reviewed for the project managers. The main purpose of the research is to determine unforeseen risks which are critical for projects in order to transfer the project managers' experiences to project manager candidates.