İstanbul otel pazarı Mecidiyeköy merkezi iş alanı otel yatırım potansiyelinin değerlendirilmesi
Istanbul hotel market evaluation of hotel investment potential in Mecidiyeköy central business district
Yazar: NİL ATAK
Danışman: DOÇ. DR. FUNDA YİRMİBEŞOĞLU
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Gayrimenkul Geliştirme Ana Bilim Dalı / Gayrimenkul Geliştirme Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2012
Konu: Şehircilik ve Bölge Planlama = Urban and Regional Planning

Özet:
Turizm sektörünün yön verdiği otel piyasası Türkiye'de ve İstanbul'da giderek önem kazanmakta; İstanbul'u diğer dünya metropolleri arasında önemli bir konuma taşımaktadır. 2010 yılında İstanbul Avrupa Kültür Başkenti seçilerek ilgi odağı olmaya devam etmiştir ve milyonlarca turiste ev sahipliği yapmıştır. Otel yatırım grupları ve uluslararası markalar İstanbul'un artan önemi sonucunda otel pazarından kendilerine düşen payı almak için rekabet etmektedirler. İstanbul'da ve bölgesel olarak Şişli Mecidiyeköy'de şehir oteli yatırımlarının doygunluğa ulaşmamış olması ve piyasaya yeni uluslararası zincir markaların girecek olması nedeni ile bölgenin otel yatırım potansiyeli artmaktadır.Otel pazarının ülkemizdeki gelişme sürecini gayrimenkul geliştirme boyutları ile inceleyen çalışma kapsamında, otel pazarına ilişkin genel kavramlar açıklanmış, otel sektörünün gelişim süreci incelenmiş, Şişli- Mecidiyeköy bölgesi için rekabet alanları belirlenerek gelecek yatırımlara ışık tutacak analizlere yer verilmiştir. Rekabet alanı içerisinde etkin şekilde yer alan oteller ile etkileşim alanı içinde kalan otellerin yatırım değerine etki eden işletme performansları değerlendirilmiştir.Bölge otel tesisleri açısından oldukça gelişmiş olmakla birlikte ağırlıklı olarak yerel markaların etkisi altındadır ve uluslararası çaptaki otel markalarının varlığından yoksun durumdadır. Bu yapısından dolayı Şişli-Mecidiyeköy bölgesi uluslar arası otel yatırım grupları tarafından cazip bir bölge konumundadır.Çalışmanın hazırlık aşamasında yapılan literatür araştırmaları sonucunda otel yatırımları için sektörel pazarın gelişimi ve gayrimenkul geliştirme ile ilgili kavramsal açıklamalara ulaşılmıştır. Otel işletmeleriyle ve yatırımcılarıyla yapılan görüşmeler, turizm sektöründe yer alan derneklerin ve kuruluşların görüşleri doğrultusunda Şişli Mecidiyeköy bölgesi için gelecek otellere yönelik analizlere yer verilmiştir.Yatırımcılar bir gayrimenkul projesine yatırım yapmadan önce bölgedeki pazarı iyi bilmek isterler. Çalışmanın son bölümünde Şişli- Mecidiyeköy Merkezi İş Alanı için otel pazarı rekabet analizlerine ve yeni otel yatırımları için bilgi kaynağı olacak yönetimsel verilere ulaşılmıştır. İstanbul Şişli Mecidiyeköy bölgesinin değerlendirilmesinde öne çıkan pazar analizinin önemine ve otel yatırım potansiyeline değinilmiştir. Bölgenin henüz istenen düzeyde yatırımı kendisine çekmemiş olması ve İstanbul'daki ziyaretçi sayısındaki artış ile yükselen talep miktarı bölgenin değerinin artmasına neden olmaktadır.Sonuç bölümünde ise kavramsal tanımlar, uygulanan örnekler ve çalışma alanı ile ilgili yapılan pazar analizleri doğrultusunda bölgede otel yatırım kararına yön verecek değerlendirmeler yapılmıştır.

Abstract:
Hotel market which tourism industry leads, gain more importance in Turkey and İstanbul; promoting İstanbul to an important position in between world metropolitan cities. Hotel investor groups and international brands compete against each other in order to get located in İstanbul?s hotel market. İstanbul especially Şişli Mecidiyeköy district is not a mature market yet, therefore the hotel investment potential of the area is increasing due to entrance of new brands to the market.Within the context of the thesis study, hotel market is being analysed as part of real estate development process in Turkey. General notions related with hotel market are explained and the the competitive market of Şişli- Mecidiyeköy district is defined. According to these definitions; statistical analysis has been made which will direct to an investment in the specified market.Şişli Mecidiyeköy district is an obviously developed region whereas it is dominantly effected by local hotel brands and lack of international companies. Because of this structure and location the area is highly preferable for investment opportunities.In conclusion of literature analysis made during thesis study, general notions and development principles of hotel investments are explained. The interviews made by hotel managers, investors and estimation of tourism associations lead the analysis put out for Şişli Mecidiyeköy central business district.Investors need to know the market snapshot of investment area before they start a project. Therefore managerial informations and statistical analysis reached for the competitive market of Şişli Mecidiyeköy region in the last part of the study. In addition to all these analysis; the importance of market analyses on investment decisions has been revealed.The macroeconomic climate in which a hotel operates is an important consideration in forecasting hotel demand and income potential. Economic and demographic trends that reflect the amount of visitation provide a basis on which the demand for hotel accommodation can be projected.The market area for a hotel encompasses not only its immediate surroundings, but also the geographic regions where the sources of transient accommodation (demand) and the competitive supply are located. A lodging facility?s market area is generally defined as the geographical area of influence surrounding the property. In most instances, this area also encompasses the hotel?s demand generators and competitive lodging facilities. The purpose of the market area analysis is to review available economic and demographic data to determine whether the defined market area will undergo economic growth, stability or decline.In addition to a prediction of the direction of the economy, the rate of charge must be quantified. These trends are then correlated based on their propensity to reflect variations in hotel demand with the objective of forecasting the amount of growth or decline in transient by individual market segment.Despite the start of the global economic downturn, the Turkish tourism industry managed to grow in 2010 and record its best year. The outlook also appears very strong and the industry is expected to support Turkey?s future GDP growth by creating new jobs and improving the country?s balance of payments.Total tourist arrivals have increased from approximately 13 million in 2002 to over 28 million in 2010, achieving a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 10.1%. International tourist arrivals reached an all-time record of 28.6 million in 2010 and the total number of international visitors, crossing national borders of Turkey, has been increased by 5.7% compared to 2009 despite the unstable global economic environment. In total, international tourist arrivals have recorded a vigorous growth of 116% over the last nine years.Turkey has seen a marked increase in foreign visitation during last few years and it has established a strong position as a business and holiday destination, providing a wide range of year-round tourism facilities. Although total visitation is highest during the summer months. The government has set policy to give priority to developing the infastructure, which will greatly aid the ongoing development of toursim in the country. Tourism now accounts for the second- largest source of foreign exchange earnings in Turkey.As a whole, İstanbul is expected to remain the hearth of the country when it comes to both leisure and business activities. By improving economic conditions, the increasing urbanisation rate, growth in the construction sector and increasing foreign residential investment provide a positive outlook in the area and future economic growth.From 1980 to 2007, the city?s popoulation has increased by more than four times (about 11 million inhabitants in 2007), largely driven by unemployment-related migration flows from the southeast of Turkey. The rate of population growth in the cityis at around 4 a year on average, mainly on account of the influx of people from the surrounding rural areas while it also benefits from influx related to the development of international companies and expatriates. The market benefits from a variety of tourist and leisure attractions in the area. İstanbul is one of the most important tourism destinations in Turkey.Apart from the sites that mostly attract leisure tourists the city is also attracting a big number of corporate travellers that visit the city for business purposes. The Sisli and Maslak line ,financial districts ,are home to the headquarters of Turkey?s largest companies and banks. Both Sisli and Maslak have a constantly growing and changing dynamic skyline with several new skyscraper projects being proposed, approved and initiated every year. To determine the effective relevance of the domestic market and the international source countries, an analysis of visitation to the region has been performed.In 2010, the city was chosen as European Capital of Culture in 2010, a sign of its integration into Europe and its growing importance on the international travel due to its vigorous economic growth the last decade, is also a convenient leisure destination owing to its continental weather with soft winters and warm summers.The existance of convention and congress spaces in a city plays a major role in attracting the so called MICE segment of tourists. Demand in this segment is generated primarily by local, regional and international companies holding training sessions, conferences, product launches and small meetings as well as by incentive and association meetings held at several venues.Currently, istanbul is quite strongly positioned as a particularly known destination for MICE business especially taking into consideration the country?s low ranking a decade ago. Most of the city?s upscale hotels offer numerous meeting and conference spaces whereas there are also several congress and exhibition centers that are able to attract world class conferences.The 2023 Tourism strategy, which touches on all key areas of travel and tourism in Turkey, is directly impacting city tourism to İstanbul. Solid growth of airport arrivals, and number of routes and airlines together with a series of improvements of the transportation system at city level, diversity of cultural and natural centers of interest; the city is suitable for diverse age segments and travel purposes. Growing presence of International hotel brands supporting the growth of international visitations, increasing investments and presence of international companies? offices in İstanbul. Expansion of existing business parks on both European and Asian sides.An integral component of a market area?s supply and demand relationship that has a direct impact on the proposed hotel?s operating performance is the current and anticipated supply of competitive hotels. From an evaluation of the occupancy, rate structure, market orientation, chain affiliation, location, facilities, amenities, reputation and quality of the area?s hotels, as well as comments by management representatives of existing hotels, the primary location for the proposed area is Taksim.The current hotel product is high in quality and in service but they do not benefit any kind of international exposure because of their local character. Most probably the impact on new upcoming international brands will undermine the existing local brands with lower occupancies or lower average rates.Currently, the area of Sisli does not feature any significant international hotel brand. The area is quite developed in terms of hotel facilities but it lacks the extensive presence of hotels of international caliber. However, some local players could not be ignored when examining the competitive dynamics of the market due to their close proximity to the proposed area. What is more, there are some local players with a presence of two hotels in the city, a business model which is very successful in İstanbul.According to literature investigations, sample modeling and market analyses made on Şişli Mecidiyeköy central business district; the potential of investment area is evaluated which will lead to a new hotel investment in the region.?