Alışveriş merkezleri değerlemesi süreci ve yöntemleri, Marmara Forum AVM değerleme çalışması örneği
The valuation process and methods of shopping centers, a case study on valuation of Marmara Forum Shopping Center
Yazar: UMUT ÇELİKKOL
Danışman: DR. CEM BEYGO
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Gayrimenkul Geliştirme Ana Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2015
Konu: Maliye = Finance ; Şehircilik ve Bölge Planlama = Urban and Regional Planning

Özet:
Geçmişten günümüze kentleşmeyle birlikte insanlığın alışveriş ihtiyacını karşılayan yapılar, özellikle 16.y.y'dan başlayarak perakendeciliğin yapıldığı kent yapıları olarak kendini göstermiş daha sonra 20. y.y'a doğru gelişen perakende zincirlerinin organizeleştirmek ve tüketiciye seçenek sunmak amacıyla tek çatı altında toplanmasını sağlayan alışveriş merkezlerine dönüşmüştür. Kentleşmenin getirdiği nüfus artışı, elektronik ve teknolojik gelişmeler, ulaşım ağlarının gelişerek küresel ölçekte genişlemesi, ürün depolama ve paketleme sistemlerinin gelişmesi, araç sahipliğinin artması sonucu dünyada 1900'lerden itibaren sayıları artan alışveriş merkezleri, öncelikle ilk örneklere sahip olan Amerika'dan başlayarak dünyaya yayılmışlardır.
Tez çalışması, günümüzde son kuşak AVM'ler olarak da tabir edilen çok nitelikli ve melez (hibrid) yapı gösteren alışveriş merkezi kavramının, gayrimenkul değerleme kavramıyla ilişkisinin incelendiği bir çalışma olmuştur. Ticari gayrimenkul değerleme sürecine uygun, alışveriş merkezleri değerlemesinin nasıl yapıldığı, hangi yöntemlerin daha çok kullanıldığı ve hesaplamalarda hangi gelir ve gider kalemlerinin alındığı ve alışveriş merkezi piyasasının güncel durumu incelenmiştir. Bu süreç bazında İstanbul ili, Bakırköy ilçesinde yer alan ICSC sınıflandırılmasına göre geleneksel süper bölgesel ölçekli alışveriş merkezi sayılan Marmara Forum Alışveriş Merkezi'nin değerleme çalışması yapılmıştır. Piyasa bulunan İstanbul'da son dönemde yapılmış alışveriş merkezi değerleme raporları incelenerek ve gezilerek piyasaya ait veriler incelenmiş ve bu veriler değerleme çalışmasına aktarılmıştır.
Çalışmada araştırmalar ve hesaplamalar sonucu elde edilen bilgileri dört  maddede özetleyebiliriz. Birinci madde de, alışveriş merkezlerinin modern tüketim toplumunun alışveriş kavramını bireysel olarak kendini ifade etmek ve deneyimlemek istediği, günümüzde hibrid merkezler olarak karşımıza çıkan ve genellikle karma projelerle birlikte planlanan, çok çeşitli etkinlik ve özelliklerin eklenmesiyle yatırımlarda çekim gücü yaratılmaya çalışılan kentin sosyal buluşma yapıları olduğu anlaşılmıştır. Tüketici profilinin günümüzde sosyal medyayı da alışveriş için kullanmaktan çekinmeyen, uluslar arası düzeyde gittikçe artan alışveriş turizmini gerçekleştiren, büyük markalardan daha çok alanında uzmanlaşmış markalara dönüş yapan, sağlığına dikkat edecek şekilde organik ürünlere yönelim gösteren bir profile sahip olduğu anlaşılmıştır. 
İkinci maddede, alışveriş merkezlerinin geliştirme sürecinde en önemli ve ilk olarak fizibilitesi yapılması gerekli olan adımın doğru yer seçimi adımı olduğu, ikinci adımın ana çekim mağazalarının seçilerek kira sözleşmelerinin yapılmasıyla birlikte, diğer mağaza karmasının bölgesel ve yerel ölçekte sosyal toplum yapısı iyi gözlemlenerek oluşturulması gerekliliği olmuştur. Alışveriş merkezinin içsel yapısı içinde mağazaların nasıl yerleştirilmesi ve optimum oranlarının ne olması gerektiği anlaşılmıştır. 
Üçüncü maddede, değerleme kavramıyla birlikte gayrimenkul değerleme yöntemlerinin emsal karşılaştırma, maliyet yöntemi ve gelir indirgemesi yöntemlerinin olduğu, alışveriş merkezleri değerlemesi sürecinde emsal karşılaştırması yönteminin sadece arsa değerinin elde edilmesinde kullanıldığı, en sık kullanılan gelir indirgemesi yönteminin alışveriş merkezinin değerini en doğru olarak yansıttığının kabul edildiğini ve maliyet yönteminin gelir indirgemesine ek olarak yapıldığı öğrenilmiştir. Alışveriş merkezlerinin her birinin büyüklüğü, tasarımı, içinde bulundurduğu mağazaların çeşitleri ve kira değerleri, ciro kiraları, uygulanan teşvikler, gider harcamaları farklılıklar gösterdiğinden değerleme kapsamında emsal teşkil edecek alışveriş merkezi bulunması zor olduğundan sadece emsal karşılaştırma yöntemiyle değer elde edilmesinin mümkün olmadığı öğrenilmiştir. Maliyet yönteminde ise en çok kullanılan yöntemin amortismanlı maliyet yöntemi ve gelir indirgemesi yönteminde en çok kullanılan yöntemin, iskontolu nakit akışı yöntemi olduğu anlaşılmıştır.
Dördüncü ve son olarak çalışma sonucunda, Marmara Forum AVM için arsa değeri piyasadan elde edilmiş, rekabet analizi sonucu kendi rekabet bölgesi içerisinde önemli bir paya sahip olduğu görülmüş ve ticari etki alanı olarak İstanbul nüfusunun neredeyse %50'sine hitap edecek geleneksel süper bölgesel ölçekli AVM olduğu analiz edilmiş, amortismanlı maliyet yöntemi ve iskontolu nakit akış yöntemiyle varsayımlar üzerinden değer elde edilmiştir.
Alışveriş merkezlerinin sayısı, özellikle belli bir durgunluk gösteren İstanbul piyasasından  başlayarak Anadolu'ya doğru artarak devam etmektedir. Yabancı markaların Türkiye'ye İstanbul AVM pazarından girişindeki artışa paralel olarak, Türkiye genelinde önümüzdeki süreçte AVM yatırımları artacak ve alışveriş merkezleri mal sahipliği artışı ve gerekli alım satımlar, çeşitli ticari ve hukuki amaçlar sonucunda, alışveriş merkezleri değerlemesi süreci artarak devam edecektir.

Abstract:
Shopping centers have always been the cornerstone of our modern-day retail market. Historically, from the first examples of urban bazaars to the modern hybrid shopping malls, the development of shopping centers always interdepended on retail market and socio cultural dynamics. In the beginning of the 20. y.y, there were some local supermarkets and hypermarket chains in the USA and Europe. After WWII, architects and designers like Victor Gruen, created the first shopping mall in the early 1950's to bring aliveness to the emptied city centers and create an organized shopping culture and socio-cultural attractiveness. The first shopping mall design concepts of dumbell and cluster designs are still being implied by the shopping center developers of the modern day. Later on, especially after 1960-70's shopping mall concept started to spread amongst the European countries. In Turkey, Galleria Mall which was opened in 1988 in Istanbul province, was the first shopping mall ever opened. As in 2015, Turkey has approximately 350 shopping centers with a 9,6 million square meter of construction area. Istanbul is the first in line with having 105 shopping centers. Turkey is also a developing country and nowadays the investors are turning their heads towards Anatolian provinces.Turkey has 81 provinces and just 54 of total has shopping centers currently. The international brands are eager to enter the Turkey market by first locating in Istanbul shopping malls. The total share of international investors is 30% of the invesments of shopping centers in Turkey.
It has been seen that while there are many resources about real estate valuation, there has not been a research made on valuation process and methods of shopping centers.  Apart from explaining shopping center valuation process and methods,  this study also covers historical evoloution of modern consumers and shopping centers, classifications, site selection methods, location analysis, trade cathment analysis, competition analysis, new consumer profiles and new trends in shopping center world.
According to the recent studies made by Euromonitor International, modern day consumer profile shows us that, consumers nowadays are using shopping culture to highlight their individualism and seeking experience rather than spending money on things they don't need. Many consumers are looking for local, small scaled shopping malls and local markets like "mini marts" to do their shopping activities. The local qualified mini markets within the cities including a lot of brands are taking the advantage of the big out-of-town shopping centers. Studies made by Euromonitor shows that countries which have the most dense local mini marts are respectively USA, Russia and China. Moreover, the importance of international brands are losing their profits to more "awareness provider" organic products. Also e-retailing is gaining importance on shopping centers and social media has became one of the most useful way to import individual shopping culture. Bloggers also help people choose the product they looking for, rather then being decieved by a brand commercial. Still; 60% of the consumers are tend to shop in physical terms, not in virtual terms. Furthermore, international shopping tourism is rising amongs the international airports retail sections and thus prompting shopping center investments integrated with airport developments. 
Turkey has a young, dynamic consumer profile and according to studies made by Turkish Researchers Association, C1, C2 and D consumer profiles are the 70% of the total consumer profile in Turkey. It indicates that the education level and conscious consumer profile is staying low in the country. Although, the middle class consumer profile is strong and luxury consumption is increasing over years. Moreover 67% of the consumers in Turkey find shopping activity as a delighting activity.
As of classification, The International Council of Shopping Centers first applied the concept of classification of shopping centers and divided the classification amongst USA, Canada and Pan-European Countries. Gross leasable area, store mix type and the trade catchment area of shopping centers have been considered during classification study. ICSC also recognized and defined Turkey classification in Pan-European Country classification.
In the development process of shopping centers, site and location analysis appears to be the first and the most important step. Considering transportation webs, size of the population, shopping trends and volumes amongst consumers are vital aspects while doing the site analysis. Most of the shopping centers choose to be located near wealthy districts and transportation centers where more than one transportation type is integrated. Moreover, many of the today's shopping center developers are mixing the shopping center usage with other usages like office, hotel and residential and applying mix use projects. This application brings more consumers to the trade area and increase sales volume. The second most important step is also creating the ideal store mix and deciding the anchor stores within the project. There have been studies about the optimal store mix for a successful income. These studies showed that leisure and entertainment usages and women fashion-clothing stores should be approximately 50% of the total leasable area of the shopping malls. Furthermore, it is understood that, the biggest size anchor stores are tend to locate far from the shopping center's central point, and small size stores and fast food courts are tend to locate near the central point where the highest customer traffic rises.
In this study, it is understood that, most of the shopping center rents are made from turnover over rents like 8% of total sales volume of stores, service charges and constant rents agreed upon the commercial lease contracts. Leasing contracts are also differs from 5-10 year leases. In real estate valuation process, there are three types of methods, which are sales comparison approach, cost approach and income approach. Many shopping center's size, design, concept, store mix type affects the rental values thus affecting its overall value. This differentiation makes sales comparison approach difficult in valuation of shopping centers. It is hard to find a transacted shopping center to be taken as an equal to the center in valuation process. Therefore, the sales comparison approach generally used for determining the land value of the shopping mall and later on the land value was added to the building value determined by the cost method. It is understood that shopping centers are income generator buildings and most useful method that determines the true value of the shopping center is income approach. Cost approach is also being applied as an indicator sub study. Depreciated cost method is the most used method between the cost approaches and discounted cash flow method is the most used method in income approaches in shopping center valuation.
Marmara Forum shopping center is located in Bakırkoy district in Istanbul Province. It is one of the traditional super regional shopping centers of Istanbul and therefore it was taken as a case study for valuation. It has 115.000 sq m of net leasable area and affecting nearly 50% of the total population of Istanbul within its catchment area. It is designed as a fashion-concept mall with 30% of the total area belongs to fashion stores and another 30% of the total area belongs to anchor stores like Carrefour etc. The location of the mall was successfully chosen, it is located close to the D-100 highway and close to the M1A and T1 railway lines. In addition, Ataturk Airport is close and accessible via those railway lines. The project also supported by hotel and office usages in another building within the land. With 98% of occupancy rate and millions of customer footfall, Marmara Forum shopping center is one of the successful shopping center developments in Istanbul. 
In valuation case study, depreciated cost approach and discounted cash flow analysis were applied for valuation of Marmara Forum shopping center. The base rents and turnover rent rates and expense assumptions were derived from the market by examining existing shopping center valuation reports. Upon market research, cap rate is taken 7,5% and discount rate is taken 11%. Moreover, by analysing the existing floor plans, store areas were estimated as proportions and applied to the total net leasable area. In addition, 5% of turnover rent ratio was also applied to the total base rent revenues. In depreciated cost approach, all construction cost assumption were based on market research and construction cost tables made by Turkish Revenue Administration. At the end of the study, the value determined by income approach is twice as the value determined by cost approach. The value determined as Euro because all rents were based on Euro currency. To make it clear, the value of Marmara Shopping center is found as 263.620.672 € (284.710.325 $, 780.317.188 TL) by using the cost approach and 564.689.289 € (609.864.432 $, 1.671.480.295 TL) by using the income approach. Shopping centers are income generator real estates and income approach is considered as the best approach showing the real value in shopping center valuation processes, so as a result, the value of income method can be considered as the real value assumption for the case study. In addition, it has to be said that, this value is not the real net value of Marmara Forum Shopping center; it is just an assumption using market data's. Real valuation reports and real value determination must be done under net construction and leasable area distributions and lease contract data's, net insurance and tax data's.
To sum up, the success of a valuation study depends upon the ability to read carefully the given market of a real estate. Turkey is currently stands below and nearly half of the average of Europe gross leasable area per 1000 people. Consumer expenditure rates and turnover performance indexes reached its highest values in 2014 due to previous years. These indicators show that, shopping center retail market is dynamic and will increase by size and numbers in next years in Turkey. Famous retail brands are entering retail market by first locating their stores in shopping centers in Istanbul. Thus, high street retail market is the second biggest retail market in Istanbul. According to researches done by Cushman & Wakefield, Jones Lang Lasalle, Collies International; Turkey shopping center retail market will grow constantly next years and therefore many investments will be made over the city. There are numerous new projects like 3. Bridge project, Northern Marmara Highway Project and 3. Airport Project within the borders of Istanbul. These projects will spread the urbanization of the city to the west and north.  There will be more shopping center investments mixed with mix use projects and more international retail brands will be entering the market. Therefore, transaction volume of the shopping centers will increase affecting valuation studies to continue increasingly.