Yurt dışı tesis kurma yatırımları: Aralık değerli sezgisel bulanık ahp ve edas entegre yöntemi ile analizi
Investments of foreign facility establishment: Analysis interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy ahp and intuitionistic fuzzy edas
Yazar: SİBEL TEMÜRLENK
Danışman: PROF. DR. CENGİZ KAHRAMAN
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Endüstri Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı / Endüstri Mühendisliği Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2019
Konu: Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği = Industrial and Industrial Engineering

Özet:
Firmalar yeni hat kurma, yurt içi veya yurt dışı tesis yatırımı, yeni teknoloji alımı, üretim makine, donanım alımı, depo kurma başta olmak üzere birçok konuda yatırım yapma kararı alırlar. Bu yatırımlara karar verirken birçok yatırım seçeneği vardır ve bu seçenekler arasından en uygun olan seçeneğe karar verilmeye çalışılır. 
Bu çalışmada yurt dışı yatırımlarında tesis yeri seçimi üzerine çalışılmıştır. Konusu gereği, toplam yatırım tutarı, üretim maliyetleri, pazar fiyatı, üretim kapasitesi, tahmini satış tonu vb. temel bilinen sayısal bilgilerdir. 
Karar sürecinde mevcut finansal analiz yöntemleri kullanılır. Elimizdeki bilgiler ile yatırımın karlı olup olmama durumu, ne kadar sürede geri döneceğine yönelik fizibilite çalışmaları yapılır. Ama dilsel ifade edilip, sayısal ifade etmekte zorlanılan politik etkenler, rekabet, stratejik ilişkiler, kaynak bulunabilirliği, altyapı gibi birçok ölçüt karar verme kararımızı etkiler. Bu tezde bu tip ölçütleri de değerlendirerek daha kapsamlı bir inceleme yapmak amacıyla yurt dışı tesis yeri seçimi kararı aralık değerli sezgisel bulanık AHP ve aralık değerli sezgisel bulanık EDAS yöntemleri ile incelenmiştir.
Tezin giriş bölümünden sonra, ikinci kısmında yurt dışı yatırımları başlığı altında yurt dışı yatırım türleri, yatırımı etkileyen faktörler, küresel yatırım hareketleri, Türkiye'de yurt dışı yatırım kararları başta olmak üzere çeşitli konular detaylı incelenmiştir.
Üçüncü bölümde karar verme ortamları tanıtılmış ve başlıca çok kriterli karar verme yöntemlerinde AHP, TOPSIS, ELECTRE, VIKOR, EDAS ve CODAS yöntemleri detaylı olarak anlatılmıştır.
Dördüncü bölümde bulanık ortamda karar verme, bulanık küme özellikleri, işlemleri ve bulanık ortamda karar verme yöntemlerinden AHP ve EDAS tanıtılmıştır.
Beşinci bölümde uygulamada kullanılacak olan, aralık değerli sezgisel bulanık AHP ve aralık değerli sezgisel bulanık EDAS yöntemleri anlatılmıştır. Bu yöntemlerin seçilme nedeni literatürde bu yöntemler ile yapılan sayıca az çalışma bulunmasıdır.
Son bölümde ise yurt dışında yatırım yapma ile ilgili ölçütlerden uygun bulunan ölçütler seçilerek bulanık ortamda sayısallaştırılmaya çalışılmıştır. Karar verilen ölçütler, aralık değerli sezgisel bulanık AHP ve aralık değerli sezgisel bulanık EDAS yöntemleri analiz edilerek en uygun alternatifin seçilmesine karar veren bir uygulama amaçlanmıştır. Aralık değerli sezgisel bulanık AHP yönteminde karar vericilerin ağırlıkları değiştirilerek, aralık değerli sezgisel bulanık EDAS yönteminde ise karar verici ve kriter ağırlıkları değiştirilerek duyarlılık analizi yapılarak sonuçların hangi parametreye, ne kadar değişkenlik gösterdiği incelenmiştir.

Abstract:
Firms decide to invest in a wide range of subjects, including new line building, domestic or international plant investment, new technology investments, production machinery, equipment procurement and warehouse building. When deciding on these investments, there are many investment options and the most best option is decided.
In this study, selection of facility location in foreign investments was studied. According to the this subject, total investment cost, production cost, market price, market demand, production capacity, estimated sales tone, efficiency, stock cost, incentives and so on are basic informations.
Existing financial analysis methods are used in the decision process. Feasibility studies are conducted to determine whether the investment is profitable or not, and how long it will take to return. In feasibility studies, the net present value of investment, payback time and the internal rate of return are the three main indicators that help to interpret the results. Feasibility studies are important in order to give top management a financial perspective on investment. But the political factors, free trade agreement, GDP forecast of country, market competition, environmental market competition, long term agreements, strategic relations, resource availability and infrastructure that are linguistically expressed and difficult to quantify, affect many of our decision making decisions. In this thesis, in order to make a more comprehensive research by evaluating such criteria, the decision of selection of foreign facility location was examined with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy AHP and interval-valued intuitive fuzzy EDAS methods.
In the introduction part of the thesis, information about investment preferences of companies, why this subject is preferred and general subject flow of the thesis were given.
After the introductory part of the thesis, definition of foreign investment, types of foreign investment as mergers and acquisitions, greenfield and joint venture, were explained in second part. Also, the importance of foreign investments for the source country  and global investment movements was given in detail. General information, historical developments, foreign investments types according to economy like developed economy, developing economy and transition economy  and foreign direct investment inflows were explained in global investment movements part.  America, China and Hong Kong stands out as the first 3 countries with the highest investment inflows. Besides Turkey foreign investments were expressed in terms of regional distribution, amount of capital, employment, first 30 countries invested and regional distribution by top 10 sectors. While Turkey took place in 2016 as 23.ranking, in 2017 as and 11 billion dollars has been invested entry to Turkey in 2017. The most important factors affecting investment abroad, which have been researched from various sources, 
are given in the last section. Main factors  are business environment, developmental and political framework, relations with Turkey, the market situation and resource availability 
/infrastructure. Business environment, developmental and political framework consist of economic, political and social balance, international direct investment agreement rules, corporation tax, ease of doing business, country ındebtedness and ınvestment incentives. Relations with Turkey consist of strategic ımportance and double tax prevention agreement availability. The market situation consists of market size, market growth, access to regional and global markets, specific consumer preferences according to country and presence of competing producers in the region. Resource availability and infrastructure consist of raw material cost, blue collar labor cost,  blue collar workforce availability, presence of qualified labor (White collar), rnergy cost, innovation index (Know-how transfer), physical infrastructure (ports, roads, power, telecommunications) and  transportation cost. In the following section, these criterias were shortened according to the applied sector and used in practice.
In the third part, the definition of multi-criteria decision making and specific, uncertainty and risk-making decision environments were mentioned. Decision making under certainty are decision-making environments where the decision maker knows what the real situation is before the decision process. Decision making under uncertainty is the decision-making environment in which the decision-maker does not know the possibilities of the events presented by nature Decision making at risk is the environment in which the numerical equivalent of the probability of occurrence of an event is known.. Then, the most common multi-criteria decision making methods like AHP, TOPSIS, ELECTRE, VIKOR, EDAS and CODAS methods are explained in detail. AHP method is an analytical approach that supports decision making by following a multi-criteria approach. It is mainly based on complex calculations using matrix algebra. The relevant section is explained in detail in 20 steps. It consists of different alternatives and various criterias and sub-criterias. The hierarchy structure describing the problem to be solved is defined. Binary comparisons for criterias and sub-criterias and successive analytical procedures are achieved. The scores of the alternatives are ranked from big to small and the largest alternative is preferred. TOPSIS is based on the notion that the alternatives chosen should have the shortest distance from the positive-ideal solution and the longest distance from the negative-ideal solution. The imination Elimination Et Choix Traduisant la Reality ılan method, which is abbreviated as ELECTRE, is examined under superiority methods in multi-criteria decision making methods. The abbreviation of Vise Kriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje is VIKOR means multi-criteria optimization and conciliatory solution. The VIKOR method provides a conciliation list and a conciliation solution, which is the closest solution to the ideal solution. As an alternative to multi-criteria decision-making methods, the EDAS (Evaluation Based on Distance from Average Solution) method developed in 2015 to conduct ABC analysis for inventory solution is based on the average solution in decision-making for the alternative. In the CODAS method, which stands for bin Combinative Distance-Based Assessment, the desirability of alternatives is determined using two measures.
In fourth part, uncertainty and information have been started in terms of introduction to decision making in a fuzzy environment, and the relevant part has been explained through examples. Then, fuzzy sets, types of fuzzy set membership functions such as triangle, trapezoid etc, membership function arithmetic operations like addition, 
subtraction, multiplication and division were explained in detail. Then, in terms of introduction to the methods applied in the thesis, the definition of fuzzy AHP, its development, purpose and which operations were applied are mentioned. Afterwards, fuzzy EDAS of multi-criteria decision making method, which is a newer method than 
AHP, has been given information about this method.
In the fifth chapter, interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy AHP and interval-valued intuitive fuzzy EDAS methods weree described in details. The reasons for choosing these methods was that there are few studies in the literature with these methods and evaluation of these methods was interval-valued that is flexible than crispy and fuzzy options. Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy AHP method section primarily aims to provide preliminary preparation, give information prioritization method for the interval-valued heuristic fuzzy evaluation matrix. Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy AHP method consists of four application steps which was explained in details. Main notions, mathematical operations and application steps were mentioned in interval-valued intuitive fuzzy EDAS.
In the last part, the application was briefly mentioned. The company dealt with 3 countries in the European Region. In the model, these countries were represented by X, Y and Z alternatives, respectively. this study, there were three decision makers: Strategic Planning Directorate, Supply Chain Directorate and Financial Affairs Directorate. Suitable criterias which have shortened in explained second part for oversea investing, selected to be quantified in a fuzzy environment. Factor hierarchy was defined by deciding the criteria and sub-criteria that affect the selection of abroad facilities with the comments taken from the decision makers and literature review. In the two methods used in the application, the first alternative was the ideal choice. The most recent, sensitivity analyzes were performed. For interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy AHP, decision maker weights were changed 10 times in sensitivity analyzes. With a slight difference, the first alternative was the best choice, followed by the second alternative with a very close value. Criterias weights in addition to decision maker weights were changed and 10 sensitivity analyzes were made in interval-valued intuitive fuzzy EDAS methods. The first alternative was the best option, followed by the 2nd and 3rd options with the best values, respectively,
In the this application, interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy AHP and interval-valued intuitive fuzzy EDAS methods are preferred. The preference of these methods is the limited number of applications related to these methods in the literature. In practice, it was desired to carry out a study which was not previously in the literature by using more than one decision maker in these methods. Another reason why these methods were preferred is that the range is internal-valued. That is, the evaluation criteria are kept wide and flexible with a certain range.
To sum up, the aim of the study was to determine the most appropriate alternative by analyzing given criterias and using interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy AHP and interval-valued intuitive fuzzy EDAS methods.