Yüklenici inşaat işletmeleri için proje özelliklerinin ve riskin dikkate alındığı finansal planlama modeli
A Financial planning model based on project characteristics and risk for contracting firms
Yazar: ELÇİN TAŞ
Danışman: PROF.DR. İMRE ORHON
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
Derece: Doktora, 1994
Konu: Mimarlık = Architecture
Dizin: Bina bilgisi = Building information ; Finansal planlama = Financial planning ; İnşaat şirketleri = Construction companies

Özet:
ÖZET İnşaat sektörü, gerek ulusal gelire katkı, gerek yeni iş alanları ve olanakları yaratma gerekse diğer endüstrilerle ilişkiler yönünden ekonominin en önemli iş kollarından biridir. Diğer sektörlerde faaliyet gösteren işletmelerle karşılaştırdığında bu alandaki işletmelerin çok güçlü karakteristik özellikleri vardır. İnşaat projelerinin yapım süresinin uzun olması, iklim koşullarından etkilenebilmesi, üretimin sabit bir yerde yapılmasının mümkün olamamasına bağlı olarak sabit işgücü, malzeme, ekipman ihtiyacının hiç bir zaman belirlenememesi, gerçekleştirilen her projenin birbirinden farklı olması gibi nedenlerle bu sektörde faaliyet gösteren işletmelerin, diğer iş kollarında bulunan işletmelere göre değişik sorunları vardır. Özellikle bu alanda faaliyet gösteren yüklenici inşaat işletmeleri, sermayeleri kısıtlı işletmelerdir. Yatırdıktan sermaye ile değil de, gerçekleştirdikleri projeler ile varlıklarını devam ettirebilirler. Bu nedenle sınırlı olan öz sermaye kaynaklarını en rasyonel şekilde kullanıma gereksinme duyarlar. Bu özellikleri nedeni ile diğer sektörlerdeki işletmelerden farklı finansal sorunlara sahiptirler. Aylık nakit giriş ve çıkışlarının diğer işletmelerde düzenli bir değişim içerisinde olabilmesine karşılık, yüklenici inşaat işletmelerinde büyük değişiklikler olabilmesi ve bunların zamanının ve miktarının tesbit edilebilmesi, işletme düzeyinde geleceği ilgilendiren stratejik kararların zamanında verilmesi açısından önem taşımaktadır. Yüklenici inşaat işletmeleri için asıl önemli olan şey, finansal kararların verilmesinde etkili olan inşaat projesinin süresine ve maliyetine ilişkin kararlarda sıklıkla meydana gelen yanılmalardır. Bina inşaatı gibi uzun süreli projelere yatırım yapmak, projenin içinde yer aldığı ve yukarıda da özetle tanımlanmaya çalışılan inşaat endüstrisi koşullarının, proje süresini ve maliyetini etkileyen faktörlerin belirsiz olabilmesi nedeni ile riskli bir iş olarak tanımlanır. Gerçekleşme süresi uzun olduğu için, süreyi ve maliyeti etkileyen faktörlerin gelecekteki durumları genellikle bilinmez. Eylem süresi ve maliyeti ile ilgili olarak gerçekleştirilen projelerden kaynaklanabilen belirsizlikler, her işletmeyi farklı etkilediği gibi aynı işletme içinde bile her yapılan projenin farklı tasarım ve gerçekleştirme evresi özelliklerinden dolayı farklı etkiler yaratabilir. Projeye ilişkin süre ve maliyet planlaması üzerinde bu tür teknik konuların dışında sektörel risklerin de etkili olduğu bilinmektedir. Bu tezin amacı yüklenici inşaat işletmelerinin farklı finansal yapısına ve nakit hareketine sahip olduğunu ve bunların sektöre özgü risk ve belirsizliklerden etkilendiğini vurgulayarak, mevcut finansal planlama ve denetleme tekniklerini yüklenici inşaat işletmeleri açısından irdeleyip, tasarım değişkenlerinin yanısıra risk ve belirsizlik faktörünün dikkate alındığı finansal planlanma aşamasında kullanılabilecek yeni bir hesaplama tekniği geliştirmektir.

Abstract:
SUMMARY A FİNANCİAL PLANNİNG MODEL - BASED ON PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS AND RİSK FOR CONTRACTING FİRMS The prospect of business failure is not a topic that most businesses care to acknowledge. However, in the construction industry failure is a real possibility. The construction industry has several characteristics that sharply distinguish it from other sectors of the economy. The opinion has been frequetly expressed that the construction industry has a generous share of economic problems. Construction is a major sector of economy. Employment in construction is often a stepping stone to work in manufacturing. Construction provides critical backward and forward linkages to the rest of the economy. Backward linkages or derived demands, represent a value which, in most instances, exceeds the value added by the construction industry itself. Each year the construction industry experience a proportionally greater number of bankrupties than other industries. The volume and composition of demand vary considerably from year to year. Consequently, contractors are subjected to greater market risk. They face difficulties in borrowing investment capital, retaining permanent staff and skilled workers and investing in basic equipment. The most striking feature of the industry is the division of production responsibility among many participants - the owners, designers, contractors, subcontractors, material suppliers.equipment dealers, funding institutions and services such as transport, electricity and water. These participants perform various functions and belong to different organizations with different policies, objectives and practices. In this situation, the contractor is primarily a resource manager of men, materials, equipment, money and time and a coordinator of the activities of many participants who are not directly responsible for the final product and over whom has little control. The needs of the construction industry for training are different from those of other industries. In the manufacturing industry, for instance, the factory and the people (management and workers) are site-bound. The raw materials are brought to the factory, transformed into products, and the products are moved out for distribution to consumers. Because the people are virtually permanent and site-bound and their jobs are repetitive, training programs ( before the job, on the job and outside the job ) can be planned in advance and implemented effectively. The factory VImanagement sees the advantages of increased productivity and is willing to both formal and, informal training. In the construction industry, however, almost all construction products are custom-made to meet the particular needs of the owners; they are location-specific, there by requiring movement of all materials, equipment, staff and labor to the site of each job. The products also vary widely in terms of materials, level of technology required, mix of input and methods of construction. The contractor moves his people, the equipment and the materials to the workside, transforms the resources into constructed facilities, leaves the product at the site and moves the plant and people out. Because the contractor moves the people - offering them new jobs, or laying them off, his incentives for investment in formal training, except for on-the-job training, are not great. Moreover, his requirement of skills and their composition may be different for different jobs. If the new job is far away from the previous, he would prefer to recruit the skills from neighbouring towns instead of moving the workers far away from their home and incurring additional expenses on their housing and other allowances. The size and composition of the contractor's workforce also varies from time to time even on the same job. In the begining, the job may involve preliminary works such as caps, access roads and power lines which require a different set of skills than for the main works. Because the contractor needs to start production from the very first day he gets a job, he often looks at the time spent on formal training as time lost on production. The construction industry has other characteristics that strongly distinguish it from other sector of the economy. It is fragmented, very sensitive to economic cycles and highly competitive because of the large number of firms and relative ease of entry. Variations in government spending, interest rates, taxation, etc. all affect different sectors of the construction industry directly and indirectly. The large number of new construction firms starting each year meas that many people become part of the industry without having sufficient experience to ensure success. Consequently, there is a large number of business failures. This characteristic is compoundedby the high level of risk and uncertainty in the industry. Traditional methods of tendering ( the necessity to price the product before it is produced ) and the uncertainties of weather and ground conditions all contribute to the degree orf risk. Construction jobs extend over log periods, prices change, labor difficulties arise and the probability of facing adverse weather conditions is high. The impact of these factors on costs and competition time is difficult to estimate. The most striking feature of the industry is the division of production responsibility among many participants - planners, desigers, contractors, subcontractors, material and equipment suppliers, owners, funding institutions and services such as transport, electricty and water. These participants perform various functions and belong to different organizations with different policies, objectives and practices. When compared with other industries, the constructin industry is not capital intensive, being able to support a relatively high turnover in relation to capital employed. The low level of capital employed usually enables contractors to operate with very low profit margins. This may place a contractor in a vulnerable position. As a company's turnover expands, its financial resources become VIIstreched and any unexpected fluctuations in working capital requirements may cause serious problems. Contractors have to finance the work until owners pay. Their initial expences in arranging for labor and materials, equipment, buildind camps and providing access to work sites are heavy. Owners seldom make advances to contractors for mobilization and purchase of equipment. The contractors also continue to incur expenditures during the time lag between submitted of bills and payment by the owner. Contracts usually specify the period within which the employer should pay contractor's bills ( monthly certificates ). Contractors become desperate when payments are delayed inordinately. Some contractors are driven to bankruptcy by inordinate delays in payment In the absence of effective modifications, the contractor is left with the prospect of planning the business properly to overcome the exiting problems. Lack of cash flow forecasting is often put forward as the main cause for the failure of construction firms. To be able to conduct cash flow forecasts on a frequent basis, the method used has to be simple, fast and reliable. Detailed cash flow forecasting requires the preperations of a construction schedule and cost. This has not received general acceptance due to the cumber some task involved and the need for contract's schedule at the tendering stage. Others attempted to model the profile of the single net cash flow in order tobe used as a standard for forecasting. The low levels of working capital required to operate a contracting firm weakens the ability of contractors to cope with fluctuations in cash low. Any delay in clients' payment or a tender demanding reductions in overdraft will affect the contractor significantly. Cash flow forecasting provided a valuable early warning system to predict possible insolvency. This enables preventative measures to be considered and taken in good times. Because of these reasons, it is very important to estimate cash flow forecasting There are two levels of cash flow forecasting in construction firms. One is at the estimating and tendering stage, when the forecast is just for the single project being estimated. The second level is the calculation of a cash flow forecast for the company; this involves aggregating cash flow for all active projects. For the single project, the conditions of contract usually indicate when payments will be made to the cantractor for work done. On most projects the contractor is entitled to payment based on an interim valuation usually on a montly basis. One of the simpliest methods in cash flow forecasting is the use of the S curve. It is used to forecast the cash requirements of a project. Cumulative expenditure for VIIIa project normally takes the shape of a letter S. By plotting cumulative direct costs (cash out) against cumulative receipts (cash in) it is possible to calculate the project cash requirements. The second method in cash flow forecasting is the use of the bar chart. In this method, the contract program is estimate in bar chart form for each project. This method is used where there is more detailed information about construction operations. An essential element in a company's overall corporate strategy is its financial plan, which should be designed to ensure the provision of adequate finance for the company's needs. Without sufficient funds a company cannot safely expand as quickly as it might wish; lack of funs is the most common cause of business failure, and can lead to the failure of profitable and growing firms as well as those declining. On the other hand, a permanent surplus of funds, while less damaging, is in itself an un economic state of affairs. Budgeting is a fundamental part of planning. The benefits of budgets may be classified as follows:. A budget forces management to express in hard figuresits future intentions;. It provides a yardstick by which people may be measure and rewarded;. It allows responsibility and authority to be decentralised without the loss of control and budgeting ensure that responsibility is fixed; this resposibility may be associated with a specific activity and with each level of authority in the firm;. Budgting control in detail the revenue, costs, cash and capital expenditure of the firm;. It ensures that reUirn on investment is optimised; and. It provides an atmosphere of cost consciousness. In this dissertation the concepts of business strategy have been developed primarily for construction industry. The process involved in manufactured goods is turned upside down the contracting industry. In contracting industry it has been the client (customer) who initiates the project ( product). The contractor (producer) has limited control over the contract. The price is agreed before the project is started. It is no surprise, therefore, that several aspects of business strategy have little relevance to the contracting industry, although some do have limited applicability. The budgeting is very important in term of planning and control of construction activities for construction firms. Cash flow forecasting for individual projects is not incorporated in the budget. Contractors at the tender stage forecast cash flow to estimate financial cost. Financial planning can be crucial to the company resources. Thus, tine contractor in some cases performs detailed calculations and uses these calculations in negotiation with clients. IXDifferent types of contracts attract different level of profit margins. Contractors may operate the same types of contracts but vary in their profit margins due to differences in risk and involvements. The different level of risk incorporated with different forms of tender affect the rates of markup implemented. Cost plus contracts usually have less risk for contracors. Unit rates contracts have more risk and uncertainty for contractor. In unit rates payment is based on prices or rates submitted by the contractor in his tender. These prices are deemed to include all costs, overheads, risk contingencies and profit. Contractors which have a substantial labour force have higher levels of working capital ( generally positive). Subcontractors are usually paid after receiving money from client. Materials in some forms of contracts are paid for when stocked on site. These and other factors enable the contractor to operate with negative working capital. Cash flow forecasting methodolog at the pre-tendering stage has not found its way into contractor's practical application. Contractors cannot afford to invest too much time and money into cash flow forecasting and planning of a construction project before they have been awarded the contract. It is of course necessary to ensure that both payment and receipts are running according to plan. Payments for work done is not always in accordance with the conditions of contract, for a variety of reasons. Keeping projects on time and within budget are two of the most important functions of construction project management. Estimates of project cost and duration are based on the knowledge of the estimators, experience and data from similiar projects completed previously, and a large number of assumptions made regarding productivity rates and material prices. When serious overruns occur on project cost estimates and programmes, the effect on overall project can be very damaging. In extreme cases, time and cost overruns can invalidate the economic case for a project, turning a potentially profitable investment into a loss-making venture. Targets are sometimes missed because of unforeseen events that even an experienced project manager can not anticipate. More often it happens because of events that are predictable in general, but not in specific terms. For example, industrial disputes, delayed decisions or chanced ground conditions may all be anticipated. The contractor estimates the cost of the contract taking into account inflation, therefore, the actual value curve will be affected by the expected rate of inflation. However, the actual cumulative cost curve will be effected by the actual inflation rate.Therefore the motivation behind this study is to develop an objective tool which will be helpful to the contractors.in the cash flow planning. The study consists of six sections. The aim and conceptual framework of the study and the methodology used are explained in the first section. Section two is a rewiew of features, aims, and basic functions of companies in the context of the contraction industry. In this section, special features and financial problems of construction firms which distinguish then from others were explained. In the construction industry, two types of firms may be discerned: 1. Firms financing the work by using their own cash resourses ( entrepreneur firms). 2. Firms financing the work by using the interim peyments from the owners on projects currently being undertaken ( contracting firms ). The fact that contracting firms have low level of working capital to operate has forced the application of cash flow forecasting systems by contractors. As a result, a primary focus has been upon contracting firms in this study. Another important point treated in the study is type of contract. As it is well known, there are several different types of contracts used in construction with varying degrees of risk and uncertainty. Among of them unit price contracts are more risk posture from the contractor's point of view. For this reason, unit price contracts forms the basis of the study. Section three is a rewiew of theoretical approaches to the financial planning. These approaches were examined and discussed in terms of their applicability for contracting firms. Section four was devoted to the examination of the techniques available for cash flow planning. Fist, the techniques were evaluated on project basis. After words, budgeting techniques used for producing the firm cash flow for every active project in the firm's workload were studied. At the end of the section, a regression model was developed to verify the relationship between the design variables and the risk exposure of construction project In section five, sectoral risks and uncertainities faced by the contracting firms in the long term were analysed. For this purpose data regarding the most important risks were obtained in interviews with contractors. Two factors were found to be the most risky especially for contracting firms operating in inflationary environments inflation and delay in payments. In section six, this budgeting model developed, was defined step by step. At the end of the section the advantages of the model were determined from the contracting firms' view point. XI