Maliyetlerine göre 100 yıllık enerji üretimi modellemesi ve hidroelektrik enerjinin rolü
Energy production modeling and the role of hydroelectric energy by 100 years of costs
Yazar: İBRAHİM ÜST
Danışman: DR. ÖĞR. ÜYESİ ALİ UYUMAZ
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / İnşaat Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı / Hidrolik ve Su Kaynakları Mühendisliği Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2018
Konu: Enerji = Energy

Özet:
20. yüzyılın sonunda dünya yedi milyar nüfusa sahipken 21. Yüzyıl ortalarında nüfus dokuz milyar seviyelerine çıkacaktır. Enerji talebi dünya nüfusu ile birlikte artmaktadır. Ekonomik, sosyal ve çevresel etkilere sahip olan konvansiyonel enerji Enerji talebi dünya nüfusu ile birlikte artmaktadır. Ekonomik, sosyal ve çevresel etkilere sahip olan konvansiyonel enerji kaynakları sınırlı olduğundan uluslar ve uluslararası organizasyonlar bu kaynakları birçok faktörü göz önünde bulundurarak yönetmek için çaba sarf etmektedirler. 
Ekonomik Kalkınma ve İşbirliği Örgütü'nün bir üyesi ve Avrupa Birliği'ne aday bir ülke olarak Türkiye, her yıl nüfusu ve ekonomisi ile hızlı şekilde büyüyen bir ülkedir ve dolayısıyla bu duruma uygun olarak ülkenin enerjiye olan talebi de artmaktadır. Kaynakları sınırlı olduğundan uluslar ve uluslararası organizasyonlar bu kaynakları birçok faktörü göz önünde bulundurarak yönetmek için çaba sarf etmektedirler. Türkiye, her yıl nüfusu ve ekonomisi ile hızlı şekilde büyüyen bir ülkedir ve dolayısıyla bu duruma uygun olarak ülkenin enerjiye olan talebi de artmaktadır. Talebi karşılamak için ülke politikalarına göre enerji konjonktüründe var olan enerji kaynakları geliştirilmesi hedeflenmiş ve gelişen teknoloji ile yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarından özellikle rüzgar türbinlerine ve hidroelektrik santrallere yapılan yatırımlar arttırılmıştır. Bunun yanı sıra ülkemizde nükleer enerji yatırımları devam ederek ülkemizin artan taleplerinin karşılanması için adımlar atılmaktadır. 
Araştırmanın üçüncü bölümünde bahsedilen enerji kaynaklarının içerisinde yaygın kullanılan ve kullanılacak olan enerji kaynakları seçilerek devam edilmiştir. Bu kaynakların lokal çözümlemeler göz ardı edilmeksizin kullanılması gerekildiği araştırmanın içerisinde üzerine durulmuştur. 
Tezin dördüncü bölümünde var olan karbon yakalama ve depolama teknolojisine değinilmiş ve çevresel etmenler düşünüldüğünde verimli olan bu teknolojinin neden kullanılamadığının ve ya kullanımının düşürülmeye başlanılması üzerinde durulmuştur. 
Tezin son bölümlerinde ise kullanılan modelleme programı ile sonuçlar alınmıştır. Alınan bu sonuçlar dünyanın enerji tüketimini karşılayabilme adına üretimin evrilmesini göstermektedir. Sonuçlarda kullanılan teknolojinin gelişim faktörü sınırsız enerji kaynaklarına yönelimi arttırmaktadır ve bu yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları için yatırımların arttırılmasının ülkemiz ve dünya için ne kadar önemli olduğu belirtilmiştir.

Abstract:
By the end of the 20th century, the world had a population of 7 billion and in the mid-21st century, the population would reach 9 billion. Energy demand is increasing with the world population. Conventional energy with economic, social and environmental impacts Energy demand is increasing with the world population. Since conventional energy resources with economic, social and environmental impacts are limited, nations and international organizations strive to manage these resources by considering many factors.
Economic Development and Cooperation Organization as a candidate country and a member of the European Union, Turkey is rapidly growing country with a population and economy every year and therefore the demand for energy in the country in accordance with this condition is increasing. Since their resources are limited, nations and international organizations are making efforts to manage these resources by considering many factors.
Turkey is a country with a rapidly growing population and economy every year. For our country over the last two decades, global electricity production has more than doubled and electricity demand is rising rapidly around the world as economic development spreads to emerging economies. Not only has electricity demand increased significantly, it is the fastest growing end-use of energy. Therefore, technical, economic and environmental benefits of hydroelectric power make it an important contributor to the future world energy mix, particularly in the developing countries. On the other hand, the hydropower industry is closely linked to both water management and renewable energy production, and so has a unique role to play in contributing to sustainable development in a world where billions of people lack access to safe drinking water and adequate energy supplies. In addition to, approximately 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity and about 1.1 billion are without adequate water supply in the world. However, resources for hydropower development are widely spread around the world. Potential exists in about 150 countries, and about 70% of the economically feasible potential remains to be developed-mostly in developing countries where the needs are most urgent. In order to meet the demand, energy resources in the energy conjuncture have been targeted to be developed according to the country policies, and investments in renewable energy sources, especially wind turbines and hydroelectric power plants have been increased with the developing technology. In addition, nuclear energy investments in our country are continuing and steps are taken to meet the increasing demands of our country.
In the third part of the research, energy sources which are commonly used and will be used in the energy sources mentioned, were selected and continued. It is emphasized that these sources need to be used without ignoring local analyzes.
In the fourth part of the study, the existing carbon capture and storage technology is mentioned and the environmental factors are considered and it is emphasized that the efficient use of this technology is not possible and the usage of it is started to be reduced. CO2 emissions from biomass conversion processes can also be captured. If that is done, biomass energy with CO2 capture and storage would become a technology that removes CO2 from the atmosphere and at the same time deliver CO2-neutral energy carriers (heat, electricity or hydrogen) to society. Carbon capture and storage technologies remove carbon dioxide from flue gases for storage in geologic formations or the ocean. In recent years, Carbon Capture and Storage has been proposed as a potential method to allow the continued use of fossil-fuelled power stations whilst preventing emissions of CO2 from reaching the atmosphere. Gas, coal and biomass fired power stations can respond to changes in demand more readily than many other sources of electricity production, hence the importance of retaining them as an option in the energy mix. We review the leading CO2 capture technologies, available in the short and long term, and their technological maturity, before discussing CO2 transport and storage. Current pilot plants and demonstrations are highlighted, as is the importance of optimising the CCS system as a whole. Other topics briefly discussed include the viability of both the capture of CO2 from the air and CO2 reutilisation as climate change mitigation strategies. Finally, we discuss the economic and legal aspects of CCS.
In the last part of the thesis, the results were obtained by using the modeling program. These results show the evolution of production in order to meet the energy consumption of the world.
Resources need first to be identified and delineated before the technical and economic feasibility of their extraction can be determined. However, having identified resources in the ground does not guarantee its prerequisite technical producibility or its economic viability in the market place. The viability is determined by demand fot a resource, the technology capability, economic performance and envitomental limitations and the price it can obtain.
The capacity factor of the natural gas combined-cycle fleet has risen steadily from an average of 35% the recent past to more than 75% at present days. Although there is a wide variation of capacity factors for natural gas combined cycle power plants, many of these units operated in the 50%-85% range in these days. Contrary to this coal combined cycle plants energy production will end in the near future.
Nuclear energy plant capacity factor is highest than the other energy production methods. nuclear energy plant capacity factor is highest than the other energy production methods. some growing country are install nuclear plant but on the other side other countries whose has strong economy will shut down all nuclear power plants they have. In recent years with its dangerous examples of nuclear disaster and the high potential of renewable sources, their high technologies for the rise capacity factor are main reasons of this conversion.
For the renewable energy production potential what gigantic annual energy flows are of theoretical value and the amounts that can be utilized technically and economically are significantly lower.
Renewables, except for biomass, convert resource flows directly into electricity or heat. Their technical potentials are thus a direct function of the performance characteristics of their respective conversion technologies as well as of factors such as geographic location and orientation, terrain, supply density, distance to markets or availability of land and water, while the economic potentials of renewables depend on their competitiveness within a specific local market setting.
In the results, the development factor of technology increases the tendency towards unlimited energy sources and it is stated that increasing the investments for these renewable energy resources is important for our country and the world.