Türkiye ekonomisinde 1990 sonrası ekonomik krizlerin sonuçları bakımından değerlendirilmesi
The result of economic crisis comparison after 1990 in Turkish economy
Yazar: ATİLLA AYDIN
Danışman: PROF. DR. ÖNER GÜNÇAVDI
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü / İşletme Ana Bilim Dalı / İşletme Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2019
Konu: Ekonomi = Economics
Dizin: Ekonomi politikaları = Economic policies ; Ekonomik etki = Economic effect ; Ekonomik kriz = Economic crisis ; Kriz = Crisis ; Kriz yönetimi = Crisis management ; Türk ekonomisi = Turkish economy

Özet:
Tüm Dünya'da özellikle 1990 sonrasında artış gösteren ekonomik krizler, başta gelişmekte olan ülkeleri etkisi altına alarak ekonomik daralmalara yol açmakta ve refah kayıplarına neden olmaktadır. 1989 yılında finansal serbestleşmenin benimsenmesi sonrasında bu krizler, Türkiye'yi de etkisi altına almış, 1994 ve 2001 yıllarında Türkiye ekonomisi iki büyük kriz yaşamıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı 1994 ve 2001 krizlerinin sonuçları bakımından karşılaştırılmasıdır. Çalışma üç bölümden oluşmaktadır. Birinci bölümde ekonomik kriz kavramı teorik olarak incelenmiştir. İkinci bölümde 1994 ve 2001 ekonomik krizlerinin ortaya çıkış nedenleri ve mekanizmaları makroekonomik parametreler ışığında analiz edilmiştir. Üçüncü bölümde ise 1994 ve 2001 ekonomik krizleri sonrasında uygulanan istikrar programları tartışılmış ve iki krizin sonuçları karşılaştırılmıştır.

Abstract:
All around the world especially after 1990, increasing the economic crises effect the developing countries. This situation caused economic contraction and loss of welfare.In 1989, after the assuming financial liberalization these economic crisis, also effect Turkey. In 1994 and 2001 Turkish economy had two crisis. Purpose of this study, compare the result of the 1994 and 2001 economic crises. This study consists of three chapters. In the first chapter analysed the abstract of the economic crisis. In the second chapter, analysed the causing of 1994-2001 economic crisis and mechanism under the macroeconomic parameters. In the third chapter, compare the 1994 and 2001 economic crises. Also discuss the stability program and compared the conclusion of economic crises.

In 1994 economic crisis the goverment had very mistake. The main purpose of goverment was decreasing the rate of interest. For his purpose the goverment had to intervention to exchange rate. Because of the intervention the exchange rate the foreign currency reserve run out. In 1994 April the foreign currency reserve decreased to three billion dollars. For decreasing the rate of interest policy the goverment didn't apply the domestic borrowing. Because the domestic borrowing would increase the rate of interest. If the demand of money increases the rate of interest increases. Because of this the goverment didn't apply the domestic borrowing policy. However the external borrowing was impossible because of credibility of Turkish economy. But the policy of goverment did not be successful because the budget deficit was very high the goverment was need money. The goverment borrowed from the Central Bank for closing the budget deficit. However the borrow of goverment to Central Bank started to increase. Increasing the borrow of goverment, the need of money increased. So the goverment had to take domestic borrow from banks and the rate of interest increased. Because of this the policy of decreasing the rate of interest was not be successful. In 1994 April the rate of interest increased to % 700. The Central bank intervented to markets.

The exchange rate also increased because of the printing money by the Central Bank. Increasing the supply of money also increased the demand of currency. Because of this the exchange rate started to increase and the Central Bank intervented the currency market for preventing the incrasing of exchange rate. This was means economic crisis and in 1994 April the rate of interest was % 700. The goverment applied devaluation and the exchange rate also increased. The goverment decided a stability program in 5 April 1994 but the program was not be successful. The goverment could not be determined and applied to populist economy programs. Also because of the political instability the trust of stability program could not be supplied. Finally the goverment must resigned.

2001 economic crisis was different from 1994. There was no conditions of crisis. In 1999 the goverment signed a stand by agreement with International Monetary Fund. After 1997 the goverment did not borrow from the Central Bank. The rate of interest was stabile. The rate of inflation was decreasing after 2000. However there was no conditions of economic crisis. But the banking markets were distressed. Either public banks or private banks were distressed. The duty loss of public banks was very high and also the capital adequacy of the private banks was very low. The goverment was closing the budget deficits from the public banks. So the duty loss of public banks was increasing. The capital adequacy was also very low. In Nowember 2000 the some of banks bankrupted. This condiotin was very distressed fort he markets and started a panic in the markets. The rate of interest started to increase. Also the exchange rate started to increase. In February 2001 after the National Security Council the explanation of Bülent Ecevit triggered the economic crisis. The goverment prepared a transition to a strong economy program to exit the economic crisis.

The main difference between the 1994 and 2001 stability programs is the stability of the goverment. The transition to a strong economy program had also contain structural prevention. The purposes of the transition to a strong economy program were supplying the economic growth, decreasing the current account deficit and decreasing the rate of inflation. The second year of 2001 the economic growth turned positive. After 2001 the economic growth goal was realized by the goverment. The rate of inflation was also decreased. The most important achieve of the transition to a strong economy program is decrasing the rate of inflation. However the increased rate of inflation was chronic. After 2001 the rate of inflation goal was realized by the goverment. The current account deficit was also decreased, so that this goal was also realized by the goverment. The currency policy of the transition to a strong economy program was the floating exchange rate. For decreasing the budget deficit the bank markets was regulated but the most difficulty of program was this goal because the budget deficit was increasing. The structure of banks were distressed. Because of this the goverment prepared structural policies in bank markets. The goverment wanted sacrifice from the people. The customize program applied successfully.

In short Turkish economy lived a transformation after 1980. The free market policy dominated in the economy. The rate of interest started occur in the free market. The current of good and services were liberalized. Turkish economy articulated to world capitalism. Because of this the Turkish economy became more fragile. The most important reason of the economic crisis after 1990 is these transformation. Before 1980 economic crises was usually currency crises and the solution of crises was more easy. However after 1980 the economic the economic crises was more complex. Money crisis, market of bank crisis, currency crises, the current account deficit crises were seen more. Because of complex reasons the solution of economic crises are more difficult.

Substantially the Turkish economy have a potential but the economic crises block the economic growth. For stability in economy, decreasing the domestic barrow, decreasing the external depedence, supplying the economic growth and decreasing the rate of interest are compulsory. This policies prevent the fragiles of the economy. Further the dependence of Turkish economy increase the external fragile. Because of this the economic crisis in the other countries influence the Turkish economy. For example 2008 global crisis influenced the Turkish economy because of this external dependence. According the new cris theories, the infectiousness is important in economic crisis. For example in Asia crises, the crises started in Thailand and spreaded to other Asia countries. The frigale of the economy increase this infectiousness. Especially the open positions in banking markets and real markets increase this fragile. Living an economic crisis in other country cause an economic crisis in the surrounding countries. The open positions in real markets cause to unpaid credits so the crisis in the real markets spread to bank markets.