Hidrojenin Türkiye enerji piyasalarına entegrasyonu sürecinde ekonomik analiz senaryolarının incelenmesi
Evaluation of the economic analysis scenarios regarding the course of the integration of hydrogen into the Turkish energy markets
Yazar: BURCU BİLKAY
Danışman: PROF. DR. GÜLGÜN KAYAKUTLU
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Enerji Enstitüsü / Enerji Bilim ve Teknoloji Ana Bilim Dalı / Enerji Bilim ve Teknoloji Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2022
Konu: Enerji = Energy
Dizin: Enerji dönüşümü = Energy transition ; Enerji piyasası = Energy market ; Hidrojen = Hydrogen ; Yeşil enerji = Green energy

Özet:
eylem planları ve stratejilerin içerdiği, düşük karbon veya karbonsuz ekonomi hedeflerine ulaşabilmek adına, fosil yakıtlardan yenilenebilir kaynaklara "enerji geçişi" sağlanması için politik ve bilimsel çalışmalara küresel bazda ağırlık verilmektedir.  Diğer yandan, uluslararası enerji ticaretindeki sürdürülebilirlik ve arz güvenliği konularında artan endişeler de, dünya çapında başta enerji kaynakları olmak üzere pek çok sektörde tüketim eğilimlerine ve dolayısıyla üretim teknolojilerine yeni bir bakış açısı kazandırmış ve yeni teknolojik arayışlar içerisine sokmuş bulunmaktadır. Bu kapsamda, dünya genelinde pek çok ülke farklı stratejiler benimseyerek, üretim ve tüketim uygulama teknolojileri ve bunlaraa uygun alt yapı, araşırma-geliştirme, ulusal politikalar ve yönetmelikler hazırlamak konusunda önemli adımlar atmaktadır. 
Hidrojen, temiz bir enerji taşıyıcısı olarak, karbonsuz veya düşük karbon salınımı doğrultusunda alınan hırslı hedeflere ulaşabilmek için enerji geçişinde önemli bir rol oynayabilir. Düşük karbon salınımı ile üretilen hidrojenin, farklı uygulamalarda kullanılması ile yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının ivmelendirilmesi arasında önemli sinerjiler yer almaktadır.
Ulusal bazda ise, çevre endişeleri ve onaylanan Paris anlaşmasında taahhüt edilen emisyon azaltım hedeflerinin yanı sıra, emtia bazında ithalata bağımlılık, enerji arzının güvenilirliği ve sürdürülebilirliği, ulusal veya bölgesel enerji ekonomilerinin faydasallığı gözetilerek yapılan çalışmalarda, hidrojenin önümüzdeki yıllarda küresel piyasalarda olduğu gibi ülkemizde de önemli bir oyuncu oyuncu olabileceği vurgulanmaktadır. 
Bu tez çalışmasında, hidrojenin üretim yöntemleri, depolama, iletim ve dağıtımı, mevcut ve potansiyel kullanım alanları hakkındaki araştırma yapıldıktan sonra, küresel piyasalardaki durumu ve projeksiyonları, sonrasında ise Avrupa Birliği ve Türkiye'deki piyasaları ve projeksiyonları incelenmiştir. Türkiye'de hidrojenin enerji piyasalarına entegrasyonunu hakkında farklı senaryoları çalışılarak, bu senaryolarda, hidrojen ekonomisine geçişin Türkiye için ekonomik ve çevresel etkileri incelenmiş ve elde edilen sonuçlar doğrultusunda önerilere yer verilmiştir.

Abstract:
In recent years, significant emphases have been placed on political and scientific studies on a global scale, in order to ensure an "energy transition" from fossil fuels to renewable resources, in order to achieve low carbon or carbon-free economy targets, which have been declared in the action plans and strategies implemented by the countries as a result of the global climate change concerns. On the other hand, increasing concerns regarding sustainability and security of supply of the energy in international energy trade markets have brought a new perspective to consumption trends and therefore have led to new technology researchesregarding production technologies in relevant sectors, especially energy resources. In this context, some countries around the world adopt various strategies and take important steps regarding production and consumption application technologies, appropriate infrastructure, research-development, national policies and regulations preparation within this scope.
As a clean energy carrier, hydrogen can play an important role in the energy transition to meet the ambitious targets of carbon-free or low-carbon emissions. There might be important synergies between the use of hydrogen produced with low carbon emissions in different applications and the expected acceleration of renewable energy sources to take place.
Due to its abundance in nature, high energy density and varying production methods, hydrogen is an important and promising energy source as a clean energy carrier. Other advantages of hydrogen include; having a high flammability rate, wide ignition range, possible to store unlike electricity, and having more alternatives in terms of transportation. As a result of the scientific studies carried out, the transition to the hydrogen era with respect to carbon-free energy targets; it is foreseen that it will provide significant benefits also in the fields of ecosystem, environment, productivity, sustainable development, security of supply, new employment areas and sustainable economy. 
On the other hand, today there are still some disadvantages about hydrogen, namely that; it has still high production costs in comparison to its alternatives, has risks in terms of storage and there are lacks in terms of distribution infrastructure.
Hydrogen has been already used since years in important sectors and researchers have already demonstrated that it can be produced, stored and distributed on a large scale. Today, almost 6% of natural gas demand is consumed for hydrogen production, mostly in refining and chemicals industries. Almost all hydrogen for industrial use is currently produced using unabated fossil fuels, and demand for cleaner hydrogen remains limited despite previous waves of interest in this topic. 
However, good reasons are emerging to conclude that this situation will change. There is now a greater focus on the intensive emission reductions that hydrogen can help, a wider recognition that hydrogen can help to achieve a broad range of policy objectives, a growing awareness that hydrogen can complement expected high levels of renewables in various important ways, and a growing body of experience with low-carbon technologies across the world on which governments and investors can cooperate.
On a national basis, it has been emphasized within the studies carried out with the  considerations of; environmental concerns and therefore the emission reduction targets set for, as well as the reliability and sustainability of energy supply, hence the dependence on energy imports on a commodity basis, and furthermore the utilization of potential benefits both national and regional energy trading economies, hydrogen might be an important player for Turkey in the next coming years, locally, regionally, as well as in the global markets.
In this study, information about hydrogen, namely; the production methods, storage, transmission and distribution, current and potential application areas of hydrogen, its current market and projections in the global markets, as well as, the markets and projections in the European Union and Turkey, respectively. Furthermore possible scenarios of the integration of the hydrogen into energy markets in Turkey were studied and recommendations are listed in line with the results obtained. 
It seems feasible that the integration of hydrogen, for which both strategy developments, roadmap plannings and R&D studies are carried out very rapidly around the world, will be integrated into Turkey's energy markets and become an important resource for our country, as well. The academic publications examined in this context and the scenarios examined within the scope of this study also support this view.
In this study, The Energy Transition Model (ETM) tool which is developed by Netherlands based Quintel Intelligence B.V. was used to develop scenarios for the Turkish energy system. ETM is a web-based, open-source interactive modeling tool that was first developed in 2008. In the ETM model; All energy systems of different cities, regions and countries can be modeled.
In ETM Modeling, while calculating energy costs, the following;
• Costs related to existing assets and investments are not calculated.
• In case new generation or conversion technologies are added to the system, the transition costs related to closing the power plants are not calculated.
• Inflation and taxes are not included in the cost calculations.
• New investment costs are amortized using the straight-line method.
• In the calculation of the total energy cost, following parameters are calculated;
– Costs of heating and cooling technologies in residences and buildings
– Energy carriers and import costs
– Energy production (electricity, heat and hydrogen production) costs
– Storage and conversion (P2P, P2G, P2H) costs
– Infrastructure costs andCCUS costs
In the scenarios created in this thesis, assuming that hydrogen applications will replace fossil resources in the transportation, heating and the production processes of energy-intensive industries, corresponding to 10% of Turkey's final energy demand by 2050. The economic effect on Turkey's total energy costs and environmental effect on emission values were examined.
When the results are examined, it has been observed that the consumption of hydrogen instead of fossil fuels provides a significant reduction in emission values. It has been observed that hydrogen produced from renewable energy sources can make a significant contribution to Turkey's achievement of emission targets, but a larger scale integration of hydrogen into the energy markets is required.
On the other hands, within the scenarios in this thesis study, assumptions about a possible decrease of hydrogen production costs are also included and the effect on total energy costs, in case of cost decrease at different rates is examined.
When the total energy costs are analyzed, it is observed that the current production and infrastructure costs of hydrogen are still too high that it makes hard to increase its share in the current energy system. However, global R&D studies and projections indicate that production costs will decrease and therefore, hyrdogen may be competitive in the medium term.
In this study, a scenario for the steel industry, which is one of the energy-intensive sectors and causes high carbon emissions, has also been created and it is assumed that hydrogen is used instead of traditional methods in the production process of the steel industry. When the emission values are examined, it has been observed that eventough the hydrogen applications help to reduce the carbon emissions, the environmental impact of hydrogen is not sufficient enough on its own, and in order to assure more efficient carbon reduction, relevant amendments and carbon capture investments must be placed in the production process.
Intensive integration of hydrogen applications into the energy market will also be effective in reducing our dependence on imports, however, it will be important to minimizing our foreign dependency in the use of technologies required for hydrogen production.
The transition to the hydrogen economy, which is not economically advantageous yet, but can be effective in reducing emissions, may also provide a strategic importance for Turkey. Thanks to its close location to Europe, where hydrogen demand may be high in the future, and its high potential for renewable energy sources, Turkey may have the opportunity to become an important player in the global hydrogen market.
In this context, it is obviously neccessary to set strategies and establish legal, technical and commercial frameworks as soon as possible in order to ensure that hydrogen will be used on a large scale, including the sectors that are difficult to decarbonize. Immediate preparation of action plans which include related incentives and sanctions that will ensure the rapid implementation of a hydrogen economy, will provide a signifcant advantage for Turkey.
As the Turkish energy market has experienced in the recent decades, it will be beneficial for our country to take urgent steps in order to increase the cooperation between the public and private sectors, to increase the academic support for the development of training and support programs on hydrogen technologies, and to prepare public information programs in order to accelerate the user behaviour changes. In order to accelerate the development of the hydrogen market, technical standards should be determined at every stage of the value chain, regulations on issues such as accreditation and certification of hydrogen systems, occupational health and safety should be prepared as soon as possible.