Elektrik enerjisi piyasaları ve çimento sektöründe elektrik enerjisi tüketim tahmininin önemi
Electricity markets and the importance of electricity consumption forecasting in cement sector
Yazar: EZGİ KAYAHAN
Danışman: PROF. DR. SERMİN ONAYGİL
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Enerji Enstitüsü / Enerji Bilim ve Teknoloji Ana Bilim Dalı / Enerji Bilim ve Teknoloji Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2019
Konu: Enerji = Energy

Özet:
1850'li yıllarda başlayan "2. Sanayi Devrimi" dönemi ile birlikte kitlesel üretimde kullanılmaya başlayan elektrik enerjisi (EE) zamanla büyük önem kazanmıştır. Yine EE tabanlı bilgisayar, elektronik ve sensör teknolojilerinin dönemi olan "3. Sanayi Devrimi" ile birlikte EE modern insanlığın vazgeçilmez bir unsuru haline gelmiştir. Nesnelerin interneti ve üretimin dijitalleşmesi çağını yaşadığımız "4. Sanayi Devrimi" döneminin ise EE'den bağımsız olarak anılması söz konusu olamaz. Çağımızda birçok sistemin çalışması ve haberleşmesi için ihtiyaç duyulan EE piyasası ile ilgili çalışmalar tüm bu modern sistemin kurgulanması ve sürdürülebilirliği açısından yaşamsaldır. 
Gelişen ve daha da gelişecek olan EE piyasası için; hammaddeden başlayarak üretim, depolama, iletim, dağıtım, sistem işletme, kullanım ve yasal regülasyonlar bağlamında yapılan çalışmalar 1950'li yıllarda başlamış 1980'li yıllarda yaşanan petrol krizi ile hızlanmış ve ivmelenmiştir. Günümüzde ise fosil yakıt kaynaklı EE üretiminin yerini yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarından üretime bırakması, enerjinin depolanması, dağıtık üretimin (DÜ) yaygınlaşması, akıllı şebekeler (AŞ), otonom kontrol sistemleri üzerinde birçok özel sektör, kamu kuruluşu ve akademik araştırmalar yapılmaktadır. 
Bu tez çalışmasında, EE'nin kullanım ayağını oluşturan talep tarafı (TT) açısından önemi irdelenmiştir. Öncelikle piyasanın tarihsel gelişimi araştırılmış ve yeni piyasasının bileşenleri belirlenmiştir. Bu bağlamda hem arz hem de talep tarafı açısından önem taşıyan talep tarafı yönetimi araçları değerlendirilmiştir. TT'nın tüm piyasa bileşenleri üzerindeki etkisine istinaden gelecekteki EE tüketimlerinin tahmin edilmesinin neden önemli olduğu araştırılmış, çimento sektörü örneğinde tüketimin tahmin edilmesi için önemli parametrelerin belirlenmesi ve tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. 
Talep tarafı yönetimi (TTY), yük yönetimi programları açısından değerlendirildiğinde, son kullanıcıların EE tüketimlerinin tahmin edilmesi, kullanıcıların maliyetlerini optimize etmesi için önemlidir. Son kullanıcıların tüketim farklılıklarının ve değişkenliklerinin sistemin üretim, iletim, dağıtım vb. işlemlerini gerçekleştiren kuruluşların operasyonlarını, sistem güvenliğini ve sürdürülebilirliğini doğrudan etkiliyor olması nedeniyle, arz tarafı açısından da en az TT'nda olduğu kadar kritik bir unsurdur.  Ayrıca piyasa ile ilgili yatırım kararları alınması ve beklentiler ile paralel sonuçlar vermesi bakımından da talebin öngörülebilir olması gerekmektedir.  
Çalışmada, çimento sektörünün Türkiye elektrik tüketimindeki yeri tanımlanmış ve üretimin genel yapısı ile tüketim noktaları incelenerek enerji karakteristiği ortaya konulmuştur. Elektrik enerjisi tüketimine etkisi olabileceği düşünülen makro parametreler belirlenmiş; tüketimin bu parametreler ile ilişkisi lineer regresyon yöntemi ile analiz edilmiş ve tüketim tahmini için model denklem katsayıları belirlenmiştir.

Abstract:
Energy resources are becoming more than significant than in the past with the environment of increasing world population and production by every single day. It has become an agenda setting item in world politics especially following the Industrial Revolution. Today, energy cannot be separated any strategic decision both national and international.
Electrical energy (EE) which has started to serve mass production by "Second Industrial Revolution" has become crucial by 1850s. It has started to become essential part of everyday life with "Third Industrial Revolution" with the EE driven computers, electronics, sensors etc. Finally, at the age of "Fourth Industrial Revolution" that is formed by "Internet of the Things" cannot be considered without EE anymore. Every single study about EE market and participants is considered highly necessary in order to build and sustain up to date system design. 
EE is a secondary energy resource which is produced by primary energy resources such as coal, natural gas, wind, solar etc. It is not just critical for its value chain but also for 21. Century life with electrical driven equipment, mobile phones, computers, automobiles etc. Studies on market structure has been started by 1950s and accelerated by 1980s with "Petroleum Crisis". Subject concept includes generation, storage, transmission, distribution, system operation, use, and regulations from the beginning of raw material. Today, public bodies, private companies and academies are focusing on major researches about new market structure with renewable power plants, distributed generation, smart grids and autonomous control systems. Subject technological developments are opening considerable opportunities for energy transitions.
EE industry has been changed and restructured in a liberalized manner from the vertically integrated structure throughout the world. The need for segregation of generation, transmission, and distribution which are three main elements of the market were the certain steps of the restructured market scheme. Market paradigm has shifted serving electricity is a utility to trading electricity is a commodity fundamentally. 
Electricity is produced at the generation facilities following the transmission with high voltages and finally converted to the lower voltages and distributed to the consumers. It has two main dimensions as technical and financial with the perspective of generation-transmission-distribution that are covered by technical side where supply to the market is covered by financial side. The unique structure of electricity as being economically non-storable and the need for constant balance between production and consumption of power grid has made the market structure more particular.
Liberalization of the electricity markets has led to progress of power systems. New market structure advocates the maximum system efficiency can be achieved with the lowest volatility on the demand instead of traditional approach as supplying all demand at any time. In order to increase system efficiency and unstressed consumption patterns of end users, demand side management strategies need to be build. Demand side management (DSM) approach covers planning, implementation and monitoring activities for reduction and reshaping of power consumption patterns with technological solutions, legal and or financial incentives.
DSM provides management for the demand side of electricity market with the prompt response to the any change of supply side at any time.  Energy efficiency, time of use pricing, demand response, spinning reserves are the tools of DSM applications. Subject tools can be implemented as a hybrid model with the context of integrated energy management system. It is recognized as one of the cheapest resources available within the context of new market approach providing benefits where underestimation of DSM will cause a dramatic cost. It plays a key role for increasing power grid performance and consumer benefits.
Increasing share of renewables of world electricity generation is another aspect of necessity of DSM activities. Contrary to traditional model based on stabilized electricity generation through the fossil sources with the couple of producers, new system is based on resource diversity with the large number of producers in a decentralized structure. Controllability fossil fuel fired power plants and hydroelectric power plants is stabilizing the balance between supply and demand in the traditional electricity system. Demand needs to be match with the more electricity supply times of renewables such us wind and solar in order to avoid waste of green energy in the new market scheme.
More penetration of renewables to the power system requires operational flexibility of system within the environment of volatile and unpredictable structure of their generation. Electricity generation via renewable resources are unpredictable and imbalanced by its nature which has a great impact of management, operation, reliability, quality and operational costs. Energy storage technologies are considered as an essential solution to eliminate uncertainties on electricity generation from renewables and their integration to the power grid.
DSM is an integral part of new electricity market structure with renewables, energy storage and smart grid technologies. Power grid is considered more than generation and transmission system which is an ecosystem that brings together produces, service provides, governments and investors. Establishing reliable DSM scheme provides supply security which is paramount, brings peak loads under control, meets the needs for new power generation plants, yields monetary saving and combats climate as well as supports environmental goals. It cannot be taught separately from building of sustainable energy system.
Companies have to manage their technical and financial complexities in order to provide reliable supply and affordable prices to the end users in the light of dynamic architecture of new electricity market. Forecasting of the consumption is crucial for capacity planning, production planning, malfunction analysis, load flow analysis, maintenance scheduling and pricing. Long term consumption forecasting is essential for capacity, investment and budget planning where short term forecasting critical for efficient operational of day ahead market not just for technical aspects but also for right pricing. Predictable consumption lead to dynamic management of voltage control, load shifting, infrastructure investment, decision making and trade deals. Unavailability of energy storage in industrial scale make consumption forecasting more critical for real-time balance requirement of current structure.
The goal of this study is introducing importance of DSM and providing comprehensive insight and contribution to awareness of Turkish industry sector for consumption forecasting. Object of study is understanding of DSM approach within the new electricity market scheme, underlining the effect of being predictable in terms of consumption patterns especially for industrial consumers, specifying the relationship between the macro indicators in order to predict future demand in an energy-intensive sector case.
Study has been parted into 6 main sections. First, the essentials of electricity market is understood with new components and models within the world. Market has been discussed for fundamental shift of electricity as public service through a stated-owned monopolistic utility to a commodity in the competitive market. Market participants and market models are classified.
Liberalization Turkish electricity market and its timeline is reviewed in the following section. Steps and the legal framework of the Turkish market is explained specifically. Market reform and market within the aspects of demand side is presented. 
The concept of DSM and its tools are reviewed in detailed. In this section DSM items, time of use tariffs in Turkish market has explained and DSM is discussed with regard to industry sector. Formation of cost of electricity is explained and electricity purchasing options is described for end-users within the context of new liberalized and competitive market design. Taxes and funds on electricity for end users is presented as an example in order to understand difference between the countries.
Following section, the cost of electricity is understood with the all aspects: generation, transmission - distribution and the other items. Electricity procurement concepts are analyzed from the point of end user with different models. Cost items of electricity invoice among the different countries are introduced as an example.
The need for forecasting in EE market is explained with different aspects. The importance of consumption forecasting for both supply and demand side is discussed in detailed. Main items for different forecasting periods are understood and methods are presented.
Cement sector is chosen for case study since it is energy-intensive for both thermal end electrical energy. The sector is introduced for production process and characterization of electricity consumption patterns. EE consumption pattern of the sample plant is figured out in hourly basis, daily basis and monthly basis. The relationship between total electricity consumption of the sample plant and the macro indicators has analyzed with linear regression for specific period. GDP per capita (USD/capita), change in GDP, cement production, consumption, cement and clinker import of Turkish market, cement consumption per capita, construction sector growth, energy prices, consumer and producer price index of Turkey and capacity utilization of Turkish manufacturing industry has been analyzed. Furthermore, the global relation between the cement sales, cement production and clinker production are analyzed for sample plant. Results of the model are compared with the actual data. The model achieved in this study is utilized by Microsoft Excel 2010. Finally, requirements for having more active end users in the market is underlined and pointed out.
In conclusion, application and outcomes of the cement sector case analysis are discussed. Recommendations for further steps are introduced. 
As final words, awareness and incentives of companies can make a major difference but the greatest capacity to shape energy destiny lies with the governments, International Energy Agency says.