Proje yönetiminde kantitatif yöntemlerin uygulanması
The application of the quantitative methods in project management
Yazar: ZİYA ULUKAN
Danışman: PROF. DR. ATAÇ SOYSAL
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
Derece: Doktora, 1992
Konu: Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği = Industrial and Industrial Engineering
Dizin: Proje planlama = Project planning ; Proje programlama = Project programming ; Proje yönetimi = Project management

Özet:
ÖZET Kaynak kısıtı altında proje programlaması tekniklerinin bir çok şekillerde sınıflandırılmaları mümkündür. Analitik teknikler veya sezgisel teknikler, tek proje veya çok proje, tek kaynak veya çok kaynak, proje süresinin minimizasyonunu hedef alan teknikler, maliyet minimizasyonunu hedefleyen teknikler veya kaynak dengelenmesi ile ilgili teknikler vb. liste bu şekilde uzayıp gider. Bu tezde literatürde yer alan çeşitli proje planlama ve programlama teknikleri incelenmiştir. özellikle malzeme yönetim politikalarının proje programlaması üzerindeki etkilerinin incelenmesi konusu üzerinde durulmuştur. Ayrıca kaynakların malzeme gibi depolanabilen ve ekipman gibi depolanamayan kaynaklar olarak iki gruba ayrıldığı durumlarda, her iki kısıt altında proje programının yapısı incelenmiştir. Atıl kapasite maliyetleri üzerinde durularak, bu maliyetlerin minimizasyonunun toplam proje maliyeti üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmıştır. (x)

Abstract:
SUMMARY THE APPLICATION OF THE QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT Project management is by now a relatively well deve loped management discipline. Project management, which had its origins in the chemical industry just prior to World War II. was developed in the 1950 's, essentially in the defence and petro-chemical industries. It has since been developing steadily as an important management discipline. Project managenent is clearly identified as a separate discipline in the Atlas Missile programme of 1954 and in the Polaris programme. By 1970, several pro fessional societies had been established in Europe, the USA, Australia and Japan. The last three decades have seen project management to evolve from a rarity to the commonplace. Today, there exist a wide range of methods, practices and styles. A project is an undertaking to achieve a specified objective, defined usually in terms of technical perfor mance, budget and schedule. There are basically two kinds of projects: those which are complete in themselves, like an oil platform, and thosje which represent a series of product, like an aircraft. Projects are accomplished according to a common life cycle. Every project, no matter of what kind or for what duration, essentially follows the activity sequence of prefeasibility/feasibility, design and contract negoti ation, implementation, handover and in-service support. While this life-cycle of projects is relatively straight forward, a programme can be of two kinds: either a series of individual projects or a product development programme. The skill of the project manager rests on an innate appre ciation of the requirements of progressing the project through this life-cycle. Project management pulls together the functional dis ciplines needed to achieve the project's budgetery. sche dule and technical objectives. Project management is the application of a collection of tools and techniques to direct the use of diverse resources towards the accomp lishment of a unique, complex, one-time task within time, cost and quality constraints. Prime among all project models is the hierarchical work breakdown structure. It has become the focal model for most projects and represents the real foundation for project instructions and reports. Developed in the US defense industry, a WBS is officially defined as: "A (xi )product-oriented family tree division of tasks which organizes, defines and graphically displays the product to be produced as well as the work to be accomplished to achieve the specified product. The top levels define the functional basis of the project, the bottom levels define the project activities. The second analytical model is the timescale networks. The network models have been widely adopted for evaluating project timetables. Even when limi ted to the time domain, a network is a simplified project model and its availability depends on the resources which dominates the timescale. The networks can be either acti vity and event oriented networks or activity-on-arrow or precedence networks. Developed in the late 1950s, networks show activity interrelationships. Essentially, no activity can leave a node until 1 all the other activities entering it are completed. The sequence of activities which transpire from the identification of a project through completion can be described in three major phases.- the acquisition, the implementation and the commissioning. The initial phase consists primarily of defining general characteristics and requirements of the project. The second phase comprises the set of activities ranging from conceptual design to detailed construction or development. The focus of pro ject management activities at this stage lies in detailed planning, scheduling and performance control to ensure adherence to plan. The implementation phase of the pro ject life cycle has heen studied by using quantitative and graphical approaches to planning, scheduling and control such as CPM/PERT and line of balance as well as various- other methods. The commissioning phase indicates comple tion of the project and initiates incorporation of project outcomes into practice. The relationship between alternative project manage ment structure and project success is also examined and the relative efficacy of different project management structure is explored. Five types of project management structure namely functional organisation, functional matrix, balanced matrix, project matrix and project team have been taken into account. In functional organizations, responsabil ty and authority lie with functional managers, in projects organizations» they lie with the project manager. In a matrix, they are shared. A team member thus have two bosses. In order to properly gauge the significance of project management structure for project success, other contextual factors such as project complexity, novelty of technology, clarity of objectives, priority and resource availability are also considered. The project success is gauged according to the traditional criteria of cost, the schedule, technical performance, as well as the overall results. (xii)It is very important for project management to play an active role in the coordination process and not just only react upon restrictions and regulations. Experience has proven that a lot of projects have incurred higher expen ditures or have even failed because of the project manage ment's lack of spirit for the coordination, delay in the construction permission, lack accompanying projects, sudden level in obtaining sufficient import of spare parts etc. of synchronization with the difficulties on the national foreign exchange for the In order to derive the resource inputs, time, and cost required for performing the project, the work to be done and the expected work results for the project are succes sively broken down into levels and component parts during the planning process. During the project, the project control gathered and is compared with the correspond i plan data on all levels of the project organi the project. The project manager has as his governing group who evaluates the entire proj cides on all matters concerning the limits of Within the limits of the project, the project freedom of decision and actions on matters su changing and deleting activities in the proje substituting resource inputs and ordering ove hierarchy of responsabi 1 ity can be shown as f information is ng project zation and of superior the ect and de- the project. manager has ch as adding, ct plan, rtime. The oil ows : The comparison between the goals and the work results must be continually made and the results of these compari sons should guide the decisions and actions of different units and persons of the project organization. (xiii)The controlling phase of a project is a complementary part of the other phases of the planning and scheduling. Control will always occurs during the planning phase, during the scheduling phase and perhaps most important during the performance phase of the project through the revision and updating of estimated times and schedules. Scheduling projects with limited resources is a type of problem which iş called a large combinatorial problem. In some cases, there may be just one key resource that is the bottleneck in scheduling a project. Activities are scheduled so that no two of them which require the same resource occur at the same time. At the other extreme are projects that require many resources, most of which are available in fixed and limited amounts. The problem of scheduling activities in such a way that none of resource availabilities are exceeded and none of the precedence relations are violated is an exceedingly difficult task for projects of even modest size. The techniques used to solve this combinatorial kind of problem are separated in two groups. The first one is the analytical techniques such as the linear programming, integer programming, dynamic programming, branch and bound techniques and implicit and partial enumeration techniques. Such techniques have produced optimal solutions to constrained resource problems of sizes much greater than possible only a few years ago. However, an apparently common disadvantage of many of these procedures is the extreme variations in computation time experienced from problem to problem, even among seemingly similar type of networks. For solving large combinatorial problems, heuristic programs have been developed. A heuristic is a method of reducing the search in a problem solving situation. A heuristic program is a collection of such rules which take into account the specific factors of a particular project. Most resource allocation problems are solved with heuristic programs. Resources are allocated on a period by period basis to some subsets of the available jobs. The heuristic of such programs decides which jobs shall be scheduled and which shall be postponed in any periods. To make such a decision, the heuristic uses priority rules. The most obvious priority rule is to give preference to the jobs with the least slack, when several jobs compete for the same resource. One of the determining criteria in the project network is the characteristics of project networks. The network summary measures may be divided into three general classes: a) measures which characterize the size, shape and logic of (xiv)the network, fa) measures which indicate time characteris tics, c) measures which caracterize resource demands and availabilities. A measure of network logic has been given the name Complexity which iş the ratio of number of arcs to number of nodes. A measure of time iş termed density and it is the ratio of the sum of the job durations to the total free slack plus sum of job durations. The measures of resources characteristics fall into two groups, accor ding to whether they measures requirements or relationship between requirements and availabilities. Measures in the first group are calculated separately for each resource type. Resource measures in the second group were designed specifically with regard to possible relationships with the increase in project, duration typically encountered in constrained reource scheduling. A general measure of the magnitude of resource constraints is the excess resource requirements generated by the differences between a resource profile and resource availabilities. All projects must be scheduled subject to constraints on resource availabilities, activity precedence relation ships and resource acquisition lead time. The resources required in a project include both non-storable resources such as labour and equipment as well as storable resources such as materials, component parts and assemblies. While the effect of non-storable resources constraints on project schedules is deeply investigated in the litterature, the effects of materials constraints on project cost is yet only in the form of the mathematical formulation of the problem or experimentation with solution methods. Products in a large number of environments are pro duced in a project mode on a made-to-order basis. In industries such as shipbuilding, research and development, aerospace, manufacturing and commercial and residential construction, a wide wariety of complex tpe of products are produced that require materials acquired from a number of different sub-contractors and vendors. In practice, mate rials are either acquired entirely at the beginning of a project, using a one-lot ordering strategy, or throughout the project on a lot-for-lot basis. ? When integrating the materials function into the development of a project schedule, one must also discuss the monetary advantages and disadvantages of this materials management system. While it is very important to maintain coordination between the schedule of project activities and the acquisition of materials, it is also necessary to know what benefits may be obtained from this approach other than just the assurance that the materials will arrive on time such that project activities may begin on their schedule. The research on project scheduling subject to monetary objectives is also limited in scope. In the litterature, (xv)The controlling phase of a project is a complementary part of the other phases of the planning and scheduling. Control will always occurs during the planning phase, during the scheduling phase and perhaps most important during the performance phase of the project through the revision and updating of estimated times and schedules. Scheduling projects with limited resources is a type of problem which iş called a large combinatorial problem. In some cases, there may be just one key resource that is the bottleneck in scheduling a project. Activities are scheduled so that no two of them which require the same resource occur at the same time. At the other extreme are projects that require many resources, most of which are available in fixed and limited amounts. The problem of scheduling activities in such a way that none of resource availabilities are exceeded and none of the precedence relations are violated is an exceedingly difficult task for projects of even modest size. The techniques used to solve this combinatorial kind of problem are separated in two groups. The first one is the analytical techniques such as the linear programming, integer programming, dynamic programming, branch and bound techniques and implicit and partial enumeration techniques. Such techniques have produced optimal solutions to constrained resource problems of sizes much greater than possible only a few years ago. However, an apparently common disadvantage of many of these procedures is the extreme variations in computation time experienced from problem to problem, even among seemingly similar type of networks. For solving large combinatorial problems, heuristic programs have been developed. A heuristic is a method of reducing the search in a problem solving situation. A heuristic program is a collection of such rules which take into account the specific factors of a particular project. Most resource allocation problems are solved with heuristic programs. Resources are allocated on a period by period basis to some subsets of the available jobs. The heuristic of such programs decides which jobs shall be scheduled and which shall be postponed in any periods. To make such a decision, the heuristic uses priority rules. The most obvious priority rule is to give preference to the jobs with the least slack, when several jobs compete for the same resource. One of the determining criteria in the project network is the characteristics of project networks. The network summary measures may be divided into three general classes: a) measures which characterize the size, shape and logic of (xiv)