Gemi kaynaklı emisyonların Türk boğazları ve Marmara denizi için incelenmesi
An investigation of ship sourced emissions for Turkish straits and Marmara sea
Yazar: DENİZ INAK
Danışman: PROF. DR. SELMA ERGİN
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü / Gemi İnşaatı ve Gemi Makineleri Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı / Gemi İnşaatı ve Gemi Makineleri Mühendisliği Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2022
Konu: Gemi Mühendisliği = Marine Engineering
Dizin: Boğazlar = Straits ; Emisyon = Emission ; Gemiler = Ships ; Marmara Denizi = Marmara Sea

Özet:
Özellikle 20. Yüzyıl'da gelişen teknoloji, artan nüfus ve ticari ilişkilerin etkisi ile insanoğlunun enerji tüketimi sürekli artmaktadır. Bu artış, enerji kazanımı sürecinde açığa çıkan, direkt veya endirekt, zararlı ürünlerin de doğaya salınmasını beraberinde getirmektedir. Bu süreçte yapılan çalışmalar, CO2, HC ve NOX gibi zararlı ürünlerin hem insan sağlığına doğrudan olumsuz etkilere sahip olduğunu, hem de dünya atmosferinde sera gazı etkisi yaratarak Dünya'ya düşen güneş ışınlarının yeterince yansıtılamaması sebebiyle de küresel ortalama sıcaklıkları artırdığını ortaya koymuştur.
Bu tezde, Türk Boğazları ve Marmara Denizinden 2019 ve 2020 yılları içinde uğraklı veya uğraksız olarak geçen gemilerin saldığı zararlı gaz emisyonları, aşağıdan yukarı (Seviye 3) hesaplama metodu kullanılarak hesaplanmıştır.
Bu hesaplarda gemi geçiş bilgileri Kıyı Emniyeti Genel Müdürlüğü'nden (KEGM) alınmıştır. Gemiler, tip, gros tonaj, makine tipi, kurulu makine gücü gibi pek çok kritere göre incelenmiştir.
Emisyon katsayıları için öncelikle Avrupa İzleme ve İnceleme Programı (EMEP) ve ABD Çevre Koruma Ajansı'nın (EPA) yayınları kullanılmıştır. Emisyon limitleri için ise IMO MARPOL Ek VI'da getirilen NOX limitleri güncel duruma uyacak şekilde alınmıştır. Ayrıca SOX emisyonlarının hesaplanması için de yakıt sülfür miktarı gene IMO MARPOL Ek VI ile uyumlu şekilde hesaplamalara katılmıştır.
Hesaplamalar ayrıca Seviye 2 hesaplama yöntemi ile de tekrar edilerek, Seviye 2 ve Seviye 3 yaklaşımlarının farkları anlaşılmaya çalışılmıştır.
Yapılan literatür taraması sonucunda aynı bölge için 2019 ve sonrası için çalışma bulunamamıştır. Ancak daha önceki yıllar için yapılan çalışmalar ile emisyonlar başta olmak üzere çeşitli yönlerden karşılaştırmalar yapılmıştır. Bu karşılaştırmalarda, toplam emisyonların yanısıra, karşılaştırmaya dahil edilen yıllardaki gemi karakteristikleri de incelenmiştir.
Yapılan hesaplarda bir adım ileri de gidilerek, emisyon standartlarının daha da iyileşmesi sonucunda elde edilecek kazanım da gösterilmeye çalışılmıştır. Bunun için Boğazlar Bölgesi'nin ECA ilan edilmesi senaryosu için hesaplamalar yapılmıştır. Senaryo, ECA SOX limitlerinin devreye girdiği 2020 yılı için yapılmıştır.
Son olarak, salınımların karbon eşlenikleri hesaplanarak hangi emisyon tipinin küresel emisyon potansiyelinin en etkin olduğu gösterilmiştir.

Abstract:
Advanced technology, ever increasing population and the globalisation of the trade have increased the energy consumption to record levels in the 20th century. This increase also led to increased emissions of harmful products as a result of energy production. Studies have shown that these emissions have serious adverse effects on both human health and environment.
Today, fossil fuels make up for 84.1% of the total energy used and the transportation has a significant 28% usage, based almost exclusively on fossil fuels. Because of this exclusivity, it is safe to say that the transportation activities have a significant impact on the global emissions.
When methods of transportation is examined, it is clear that the shipping is one of the most efficient in terms of a cargo transported a given distance. It is responsible from about 3% CO2 emissions and it creates relatively more harmful emissions (NOX, SOX and HC), due to marine engines' working characteristics (shuch as use of heavy fuels), and lack of regulation relative to automotive emissions.
Starting with the second half of the 20th Century, various regulatory bodies have been implementing new regulations to limit the emissions. After the first regulations that came from the US, this issue has drawn attention. Today, various sectors from automotive to heavy industry have laws and regulations that limit the emissions permitted. Within this context, shipping has also been affected by these laws and regulations. The fuel is being standardized to achieve lower levels of sulphur within it, while the total emissions limits are being set. Increasing regulations have also dictated Emission Controlled Areas (ECAs) and the ships that do not conform ECA regulations are prohibited from entering these zones. With these regulations, bans and fines, the global shipping industry is being encouraged to upgrade ships with new propulsion systems and emission control technologies.
Related studies on this subject have revealed several methods for calculating such emissions. Namely, top-down and bottom-up approaches are used to have an estimate of the fuel burnt and the emissions released to the atmoshpere.
Top-down (or Tier 1) approach considers the fuel used from the data supplied by the marine fuel suppliers to achieve the total ship fuel usage. Tier 1 approach only allows calculation of global emissions as it relies on the fuel sales. Since a ship can re-fuel practically anywhere, possibility of a report of any re-fueling in a specific area is very small. This small chance is the main driving factor of the uncertainty (or error) found in Tier 1 approach.
In order to decrease the error in top-down calculation method, bottom-up calculation methods (Tier 2 and Tier 3) have been developed. Tiers 2 and 3 can be used to calculate the emissions in local areas such as ports, cities or certain waterways.
In Tier 2 method, emissions are calculated through the fuel consumption. In order to find the fuel consumption, first, ships that made passage in the area of interest is listed and categorized according to type. Then, for each type of ship, average values for power and cruise speed is obtained through world ship fleet average values. With the cruise speed and cruise distance values, working hours are calculated. With power and duration known, total energy used on the passge is also known. Thorugh the weighted fuel consumption values from worl ship fleet, total fuel consumption is obtained and emission factors are used to determine the pollutant mass.
While Tier 2 method relies on average values to determine the fuel consumption, Tier 3 takes into account the route and the activities that any particular ship engages in as well as that ship's specifications. With these factored in, it is then possible to calculate each ship's unique fuel consumption. By using emission factors, each ship's effect on emissions are obtained for either a specific area or route.
In this thesis, the ship based emissions for Turkish Straits (Bosphorus and Dardanelles) and Marmara Sea is calculated using Tier 3 approach. Emissions for 20 different types of pollutants have been calculated and presented including CO2, NOX and SOX emissions.The marine traffic has been evaluated against several criteria such as ship type, main engine type, power and rpm.
Effects of pollutants on the environment and human health have been laid out to emphasize the importance of maritime emissions regulations. Turkish Straits and Marmara Sea is chosen because it is affected by the ship based emissions as it is an important waterway. connecting Black Sea to Mediterrenean It is used by all the Black Sea neighbours of Turkey for commercial activites. Roughly 40 thousand ship make passage thourgh each strait in each year, to both ports in Marmara (as non-transit) and to the ports in Mediterrenean and Black Sea making the Turkish Straits one of the busiest waterways.
Turkish Straits and Marmara Sea is home to over 25 million people in 7 cities encricling Marmara with more than 30% of Turkey's annual gross domestic product.5 major ports are located between İstanbul and Çanakkale Straits. More than a quarter of ship traffic is bound to these ports as a result of economic activities based in Marmara Region.
Ship traffic data has been supplied by the local authorities and ship specific information (such as ship type, main engine type and rpm, fuel type and service speed) has been gathered from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) and IHS data base. Emission factors for calculations of the pollutants are from the publications made by European Monitoring and Evaulation Program and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
To be able to compare the Tier 2 and 3 calculation methods, the emissions from the Istanbul Strait and Çanakkale Strait for 2020 have also been calculated by Tier 2 calculation method. Similar to Tier 3 calculations, publications made by European Monitoring and Evaulation Program and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have been used to obtain the world ship fleet average values and emissions factors.
The results obtained for the years 2019 and 2020 are compared with the available results in the literature for the previous years (1998, 2003 and 2010). The differences between results for different years are evaluated in terms of emissions, and the number of vessels passing through the straits, their total power and gross tonnage to show the effect of the more stringent regulations have come into effect through years.
To further the study, ECA emission limits have been applied to show the possible improvement over the current status in Turkish Straits and Marmara Sea. In this scenario, ECA regulations on both NOX and SOX limits are taken into calculation to determine the decrease in emissions.
Lastly, global warming potentials of pollutants have been calculated to show the effects of different types of pollutants on the climate change as green house gasses by calculation their carbon equivalents.