6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş depremleri ve Türkiye afet yönetimi sistemine ilişkin bir değerlendirme
February 6th 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes and an evaluation of the disaster management system of Türkiye
Yazar: HALDUN DUMAN
Danışman: PROF. DR. DİDEM SALOĞLU DERTLİ
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü / Afet ve Acil Durum Ana Bilim Dalı / Afet Yönetimi Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2024
Konu: Deprem Mühendisliği = Earthquake Engineering

Özet:
Deprem, Türkiye'nin maruz kaldığı en yıkıcı ve can alıcı doğal afettir. 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş depremleri sonrasında Türkiye'deki afet yönetimi anlayışı, özellikle afete müdahale safhasında yaşanan ve toplumun çok büyük kesiminin tepkisini çeken eksiklikler ve afet yönetiminden sorumlu kurumların afete müdahaledeki durumu yoğun olarak eleştirilmiştir. Özellikle 1999 Gölcük Depremi'nden çıkartılan dersler, edinilmiş deneyim ve tecrübeler, o dönemki afete müdahale örgütlenmesi ve bu yapı altında yer alan kurumlar ve yaşanan kayıplar 2023 Kahramanmaraş Depremleri ile kıyaslanmıştır. 2009 yılında kurulmuş olan Afet Acil Durum Yönetimi Başkanlığı (AFAD) başta olmak üzere afete müdahaleden birincil ve ikincil derecede sorumlu kurumlar, 2023 Kahramanmaraş depremlerinin arama-kurtarma çalışmalarında ciddi eleştiriler almıştır. Yapılan kaynak taraması ile görülmüştür ki afete müdahaleden sorumlu kurumlar kendilerini konumlandırmalarında, afete yaklaşım anlayışlarında, örgütlenmelerinde, yurt geneline konuşlanmalarında ve yer seçiminde, nitelikli ve yetkin personelin istihdam edilmesinde, gönüllü kuruluşlar, sivil toplum örgütleri, diğer resmi kurumlar, yerel yönetimler ile işbirliği ve koordinasyonu sağlamada, inisiyatif kullanmada, durumsal farkındalık sahibi olma ve çevik organizasyona dönüşmede belirli noktalarda beklenen seviyenin ne yazık ki altında kalmıştır. 
Bu nedenle, sunulan tez çalışması ile 6 Şubat Kahramanmaraş depremlerinden edinilen tecrübe ile, beklenen İstanbul depremi başta olmak üzere ülkemizde meydana gelebilecek olası afetlerin daha az zararla atlatılabilmesi için yapılması gerekenlere ilişkin öneriler bu çalışmada paylaşılmıştır. Genel olarak her afet türü için önleme, korunma, risk ve zarar azaltma çalışmalarının hızlıca yapılandırılması, müdahale ve yeniden yapılandırma aşamalarında ise teknolojik ve mühendislik yaklaşımlardan yararlanılarak mevcut sorunların iyileştirilmesi önem arz etmektedir. Bu bağlamda, beklenen İstanbul depreminin daha az zararla atlatılabilmesi için, önleme, korunma, afetlere hazırlık, risk ve zarar azaltma çalışmalarının bölge bazında planlanması ve hayata geçirilmesi, özellikle afetle müdahale ve iyileştirme aşamalarında ulaşım, arama-kurtarma, bakım-barınma, gönüllü örgütlenmesi, eğitim, yetkinlik ve kapasite artırma, iş birliği geliştirme konuları başta olmak üzere bütünleşik afet yönetimi anlayışıyla yeniden ele alınması önemlidir.

Abstract:
Earthquakes are the most destructive and vital natural disaster that Turkey has been exposed to. After the February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, the understanding of disaster management in Turkey, especially the failures experienced during the disaster response phase attracting the reaction of a large part of the society, and the situation of the institutions responsible for disaster response have been heavily criticized. The lessons learned from the 1999 Gölcük Earthquake, which we still remember, the know-how and experiences, the disaster response organization of that period and the bodies under that organization, the losses and damage experienced at that time are always compared with the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. AFAD, which was established in 2009, and the Ministry of Interior, to which it is affiliated, received serious criticism for failing in the search and rescue efforts of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. It was  seen as a result of the  open intelligence study and the literature review made, that their positioning, their approach to disaster, their way of organization, deployment and site selection, qualified and competent staff employment, cooperation and coordination with voluntary organizations and non governmental organizations, cooperation with other official institutions and local governments, initiative utilization, situation awareness level and transforming into an agile organization of those institutions in charge of disaster response  was not at desired level. 
In this thesis, with the experience obtained from the 6 February Kahramanmaras earthquakes, suggestions on what should be done to overcome possible disasters that may occur in our country, especially the expected Istanbul earthquake, with less damage are presented. In general, it is important that prevention, protection, risk and mitigation works for each type of disaster should be structured and existing problems should be improved by utilising technological and engineering approaches in response and recovery phases. In this context, in order to overcome the expected Istanbul earthquake with less damage, it is important that prevention, protection, disaster preparedness, risk and mitigation activities should be planned and implemented on a provincial basis, and especially in disaster response and recovery phases, transportation, search and rescue, maintenance and sheltering, volunteer organisation, training, competence and capacity building, and cooperation development should be reconsidered with an integrated disaster management approach.
The deliverables, that is the advices, obtained by the end of this thesis can be grouped basicly in below items:
The organization of the AFAD should be revised and updated. The current organization of AFAD is under the civil administration of Ministry of Interior. The provincial manager of AFAD reports to governor of province. This kind of organization is far from arising synergy and effectiveness in case of a disaster spreading to several provinces as in the case of 6 February Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. It must be kept in mind that disasters do not obey the borders of provinces! In this sense, AFAD should be organized in territories whose liability areas are determined in accordance with the probable disasters and emergency situations requirements. Each territory can cover a wide area that compoese of several provinces (remember that 6 February Kahramanmaraş earthquakes affected 11 provinces), or just a province due to its specific geographical, sovial, economical or political characteristics. Istanbul can be an example for a unique province territory. Each territory should be equipped with the specific equipment acquired to meet necessities of disaster response works for the expected disasters at that territory, should have adequate number of staff who are trained, educated and are kept up to date against the expected disaster all the time, and should be supported by legal and official regulations. The territorial AFAD manager should have the authority to take command of the territory in case of a disaster. This authorization should cover the authority of province managers in the territory and decleration of emergency.
Besides the territorial organization, AFAD management level should be upgraded to become a ministry. You can see similar "ministry of disaster and emergency" organizations in various countries. Those ministries are authorized as the most top level organization for disaster and emergency management in the country; and they report directly to the president of their country. 
This type of organization and authorization is the effective and time saving management type that can be defined as a type of horizontal organization, and is preferred for a rapid and effective disaster response. The ministry in charge of disaster and emergency management should be in close cooperation with the other ministries of the country which are liable for the infrastructure planning and investments, education, security, natural resources, technology and development policies, transportation, health and international relations. 
Another issue to be upgraded is the deployment of disaster response teams in the field. Teams should be deployed in safe locations which are free of the adverse effects and hazards of probable disaster and emergency situations in the territory. In this way, valuable disaster response teams will be available for disaster response activity. The deployment location should be assessed in all aspects of disasters, and the most appropriate locations should be selected as the bases for response teams. 6 February Kahramanmaraş earthquakes is a striking example of what happens when the deployment location assessment is neglected: AFAD staff were very badly affected by the disaster and could not recover for a long time. They could not provide search and rescue works for the disaster victims who are waiting for a rescue under debris.
Another vital issue regarding the organization of AFAD is its mission. AFAD defined itself as an organizer and director of other stakeholders participating disaster response activities. It sounds that AFAD has no intention for searching and rescuing victims in the field; it rather prefers to organize and manage other stakeholders such as voluntary organizations, other non governmental organizations, official rescue teams and foreign search and rescue teams in the field. This is an unacceptable mission for such an organization in charge of disaster management of the country. It is expected to have required quantity of response teams against all type of disasters, who are well selected, adequately equipped, perfectly trained and are kept up to date by regular exercises organized domestically or in cooperation with foreign counterparts. This issue should be immediately improved by revising the mission of AFAD and re-organizing corporate structure. 
The most important stakeholders of disaster response is the voluntary organizations. Neither country can mobilize thousands of professional search and rescue teams rapidly right after a disaster. The most effective way of strengthening disaster response force is the use of volunteers and voluntary organizations together with the professional teams. The volunteers and voluntary organizations exist everywhere in the country, so it is easy to mobilize them where the disaster occurs. This case can be called as local intervention which is the rapid response that allows the effective use of golden hours right after the disaster. Those countries which can organize and train their citizens as disaster volunteers, successfuly rescue their citizens shortly after disaster occurs. Turkey should assess those successful voluntary systems in other countries as a benchmark, and must create its own voluntary system in accordance with its own requirements. The cooperation between voluntary organizations and AFAD should be set up and improved. 
Lessons learned from 6 February Kahramanmaraş earthquakes have very useful hints for the preparation, mitigation and especially the response phases of disaster management for the expected Istanbul earthquake. Istanbul is located on the edge of the North Anatolia fault. Adalar, Avcılar, Kumburgaz and Tekirdağ segments of North Anatolia fault lay in Marmara Sea, just on the south of Istanbul. These segment did not generate any earthquake for more than 100 years, and an earthquake is expected to happen on one or more of those faults. 1999 Gölcük earthquake happened on the İzmit Körfezi segment of North Anatolia fault. 
Istanbul has a perfect geographical location for settlement, trade, industry, education, transportation and has a valuable cultural heritage. It is not an important city only for Turkey, but also for the Karadeniz basin, Balkan basin, Caucasia basin and the Middle East. Any disaster such as an earthquake will probably cause serious economical, social and infact political damage for Turkey and above mentioned basins. In order to prevent physical, social and economical damage, counter measures against earthquake and secondary disasters should be taken rapidly. The settlement structures, namely houses, workplaces, public buildings; infrastructure such as transportation, energy, communication; health system, voluntary organization; social awareness should be improved. Having a resiliant and integrated disaster management system should be the main goal of these activities. Specific suggestions were introduced in this thesis. Improvement of the transportation infrastructure, construction of disaster response roads especially through the heavily crowded settlement areas of the city, relocation of certain manufacturing sectors to other cities of the country, on-site reinforcement of buildings, early planning of evacuation are examples of suggested counter measures. A heavy damage due to earthquake or any other disaster around Istanbul will affect not only Istanbul but the whole country. Istanbul must become a disaster resilient city; so, the sources of central government, Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, district municipalities, private sector companies, non governmental organizations, voluntary organizations should be organized logically in order to create synergy, and mutual cooperation should be achieved. Trained manpower is the key factor for the disaster response. Besides the well trained and equipped disaster response staff in the field, having well trained and educated disaster managers has utmost importance for the disaster management. Disaster managers must have the competencies to quickly grasp situational awareness, make quick and accurate decisions, determine priorities, maintain discipline, maintain composure, and think analytically. They should be encouraged to participate international exercises and to attend to the disaster response cases of disasters happening in other countries, knowhow sharing with their staff and shareholders. These activities will pave the way for a successful team and a resilient disaster management system. A dynamic and resilient disaster management system is the key for disaster recovery, consequently less casualty and improvement of wealth in the country.