Video kaydedici sektöründe betamax ve VHS rekabetinin bulanık bilişsel harita yöntemi ile incelenmesi
Analysis of betamax and VHS rivalry in video casette recorder industry with fuzzy cognitive map method
Yazar: NAZLICAN BAYDAR
Danışman: PROF. DR. SEÇKİN POLAT
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü / Endüstri Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı / Endüstri Mühendisliği Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2021
Konu: Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği = Industrial and Industrial Engineering

Özet:
Tarih boyunca insanların ihtiyaçlarının değişmesi ve yeni gereksinimlerinin oluşmasıyla, yeni sektörler doğmaya ve pazarda yerini almaya başlamıştır. Teknolojinin hızla gelişmekte olduğu günümüzde, gelişen teknoloji yeni sektörlerin de oluşmasını hızlandırmakta ve pazara girmesine katkıda bulunmaktadır. Hızla gelişen teknoloji ve tüketicilerin değişen ihtiyaçları, bu ihtiyaçları karşılamak için ortaya çıkan yeni sektörler için rekabet koşullarını zorlaştırmakta ve pazarda rekabeti artırmaktadır.
Sürekli değişen bu çevrede başarılı olabilmek ve pazarda bir avantaj elde edebilmek için firmalar; bulundukları çevreyi iyi tanımalı, işletmelerinin güçlü ve zayıf yönlerini iyi bilmeli ve tüketicilerin ihtiyaçlarını anlamalılardır. Bunların hepsini göz önünde bulundurarak yapılan analizler doğrultusunda, tüketicilerin ihtiyaçlarına doğru cevaplar verebilmeleri ve rekabet stratejilerini doğru geliştirebilmeleri gerekmektedir.
Bu çalışmada, Sony'nin Betamax formatı video kaset kaydedici ile JVC'nin VHS formatı video kaset kaydedicisi arasındaki rekabet incelenmiştir. Betamax ve VHS birbirleri ile uyumsuz formatlara sahip olan video kaset kaydedici teknolojisi ürünleridir. Video kaset kaydedici teknolojisi 1975 yılında Sony'nin Betamax'ı tanıtmasıyla tüketici ile buluşmuş olup; JVC ise Sony'den 1 yıl sonra, 1976 yılında VHS'yi tanıtmıştır. Yeni doğan sektörlerde rekabetin anlaşılması için, tarihte önemli bir vaka örneğidir. Bu iki video kaset kaydedici formatı birbirlerinden farklı kaset boyutlarına sahip oldukları için, Betamax formatı video kaset kaydediciye sahip bir tüketici VHS formatı bir kaseti oynatamıyor; aynı şekilde VHS formatı video kaset kaydediciye sahip olan bir tüketici ise Betamax formatı kaseti oynatamıyordu. Bu nedenle, ilerleyen yıllarda izlenilen stratejiler doğrultusunda VHS video kaset kaydedici formatının değeri zamanla artarken, Betamax formatı pazardan çekilmek zorunda kalmıştır.
Bu çalışmasının amacı, rekabet literatüründe önemli olan Betamax ve VHS formatları arasındaki rekabet sürecinde bir formatın başarılı olabilmesi için etkili olan faktörlerin belirlenmesidir. Bu faktörlerin belirlenmesi için sistemin karmaşıklığı göz önüne alınarak, analiz yöntemi olarak bulanık bilişsel haritalamada yeni bir yaklaşım kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın diğer bir amacı ise, yöntem olarak kullanılan yeni yaklaşımın rekabet koşullarındaki geçerliliğini gözlemlemek ve kanıtlamaktır. Bu amaçlar doğrultusunda detaylı literatür taraması yapılarak video kaset kaydedici pazarının dinamikleri araştırılmış ve rekabet sürecinde etkili olan faktörler belirlenmiştir. Yirmi iki ana başlık altında toplam kırk üç faktör tanımlanmıştır. Faktörlerin belirlenmesiyle Betamax-VHS rekabet literatüründen faydalanılarak faktörlerin birbirleri üzerindeki etkileri belirlenmiştir.
Bulanık bilişsel haritalamanın yeni yaklaşımı kullanılarak rekabette etkili olan faktörler analiz edilmiştir. Bu faktörler analiz edildikten sonra, klasik bulanık bilişsel yaklaşımdan farklı olarak başlangıç koşullarına duyarlı olan bu yeni yaklaşım sayesinde Betamax formatının rekabette ayakta kalabilmesi için farklı senaryolar geliştirilmiş ve simülasyonu yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonunda, modelin sonuçları yorumlanmıştır.
Analiz sonucunda, Betamax-VHS formatları arasında gerçekleşen format savaşlarında en etkili olan faktörün "Kullanıcı Sayısı" olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Kullanıcı sayısı faktörünü "Pazarda Bulunan Kaset Sayısı" ve "İşbirliği Sayısı" faktörleri takip etmektedir. Betamax-VHS rekabet vakasında etkisi en düşük olan faktörün "Görüntü Kalitesi" olduğu görülmüştür. Etkisi en düşük olan görüntü kalitesi faktörünü ikinci sırada "Pazara Giriş Zamanı" faktörü, üçüncü sırada ise "Kaset çoğaltılması için Ekipman Tedariki" faktörü takip etmektedir.

Abstract:
New sectors have begun to emerge and take their place in the market with the changing needs of people throughout history. Rapidly developing technology accelerates the formation of new sectors int the market. Developing technology and changing needs of consumers make competition conditions difficult for new sectors that emerge to meet customer needs.
Gaining a competitive advantage is important for companies stepping into a new sector. However, there is a compelling factor for companies to gain competitive advantage in a newly emerging sector. This factor is the lack of competition rules in emerging sectors.
The fact that the rules of competition have not yet been determined creates a risk as well as an opportunity for companies in a new sector. In order to be successful in this constantly changing environment and to gain an advantage in the market, companies should know their environment well, know the strengths and weaknesses of their businesses, and understand the needs of consumers. Considering all of these, it is necessary for companies to be able to respond to customer needs and develop their strategies properly.
In this study, the competition between Sony's Betamax format VCR and JVC's VHS format VCR is examined. Betamax and VHS are VCR technology products with incompatible formats. VCR technology met with the consumer with the introduction of Betamax by Sony in 1975; JVC introduced VHS in 1976, one year after Sony's Betamax VCR. VCR case is an important case study in history for understanding competition in emerging sectors. These two VCR formats have different tape sizes. So, if consumers have Betamax format VCR, they cannot play VHS format tape. Likewise, if consumers have VHS format VCR, they cannot play the Betamax format tape. For this reason, in the following years, while the value of the VHS VCR format increased over time with the strategies VHS followed, the Betamax format had to be withdrawn from the market. This rivalry, which started in 1976 between Betamax and VHS format VCRs, ended in 1988 when Sony announced that Sony will produce VHS format VCRs.
In this study, a detailed literature research was conducted firstly to understand the development and historical process of VCR technology. The effective factors in the rivalry between Betamax and VHS format VCRs are determined and then classified under twenty-two main headings. In the history of VCR technology, a total of forty-three factors have been determined, which are effective in the failure of the Betamax format and the success of the VHS format.
Main topics are; time of entry of the product to the market, willingness to cooperate with other producers, policy to listen to customer needs, production, distribution and licensing planning, number of collaborations that they have, design and serviceability of the product, low production cost, adequate mass production and distribution, image quality of VCR, playback time of VCR, accessibility to VCR, total number of brands, affordability, promotional activities, number of users, opening of cassette shops, supply of equipment for cassette duplication, number of cassettes available in the market, value of the format, users' ability to exchange cassettes with each other, cassette rental possibility by users and manufacturers' willingness to continue producing a certain format of VCRs. The determined factors are; being the leading format in the market for Betamax, being a follower format in the market for VHS, willingness to cooperate of Betamax's producers, willingness to cooperation of VHS's producers, policy of listening to the customer's needs of Betamax, policy of listening to the customer's needs of VHS, production, distribution and licensing planning of Betamax, production, distribution and licensing planning of VHS, number of collaborations of Betamax, number of collaborations of VHS, design and serviceability of Betamax, design and serviceability of VHS, low production cost of Betamax, low production cost of VHS, adequate mass production and distribution of Betamax, adequate mass production and distribution of VHS, image quality of Betamax, image quality of VHS, playback time of Betamax, playback time of VHS, availability of Betamax, availability of VHS, total number of brands in Betamax format, total number of brands in VHS format, affordability of Betamax, affordability of VHS, promotional activities of Betamax, promotional activities of VHS, number of users of Betamax, number of users of VHS, opening of cassette shops, supply of equipment for cassette duplication of Betamax, supply of equipment for cassette duplication of VHS, the number of Betamax cassettes available in the market, the number of VHS tapes available in the market, the value of the Betamax format, the value of the VHS format, possibility of exchange cassettes with each other of Betamax users, possibility of exchange cassettes with each other of VHS users, possibility of rent cassettes of Betamax users, possibility of rent cassettes of VHS users, manufacturers' willingness to continue to produce the Betamax format, and manufacturers' willingness to continue to produce the VHS format.
Relationships between the factors were determined by literature review. The aim of this thesis study is to determine the factors affecting success of the Betamax format and VHS format VCRs in the rivalry. In order to determine these factors, a new approach in fuzzy cognitive mapping was used as an analysis method in the study. Another aim of the study is to observe and prove the validity of the new approach used as a method in competitive conditions. For these purposes, the dynamics of the video cassette recorder market has been researched by making a detailed literature review and the factors affecting the competition process have been determined.
There is an important difference between the new approach of fuzzy cognitive mapping method and the classical fuzzy cognitive mapping method. The new approach of fuzzy cognitive mapping method is sensitive to initial conditions. Thanks to that difference, different scenarios were prepared in order to ensure the continuity of the Betamax format in competition and the results are observed.
This study includes literature studies on rivalry, sustainable competitive advantage, competitive strategy and competition in sectors that are new to the market in the second chapher. In the third chapter literature studies of the period before the VCR technology, which was effective in the formation of the VCR industry, and the historical process that started with the birth of the VCR industry are given. Literature researches of classical and new approaches of fuzzy cognitive mapping method are included in the fourth chapter of the study. Fifth chapter of study includes the analysis made by using the approach of fuzzy cognitive mapping method to determine the factors affecting the success of formats in rivalry between Betamax and VHS formats and different scenarios applied for Betamax to be successful in rivaly. Conclusions of the study is in the sixth chapter which is last chapter.
In order to determine the factors affecting the competition between Betamax and VHS formats, analysis was carried out by new approach of fuzzy cognitive mapping method. In order for the Betamax format to be successful in competition, nine different scenarios were developed and simulated. The analysis process was explained in detail and the results were interpreted.
As a result of the analysis, it has been observed that the most effective factor in the format wars between Betamax-VHS formats is the "number of users". The following factors after the factor "number of users" are "number of cassettes in the market" and "number of collaborations". In the case of Betamax-VHS competition, it was observed that the factor which has the lowest effect is "image quality". This factor is followed by the factor of "time of entry of the product to the market" in the second place and the factor of "supply of equipment for cassette duplication" in the third place.