Risk değerlendirme matris yöntemi kullanarak okullarda bütünsel afet risklerinin olası etkilerinin belirlenmesi: Konya örneği
Determining the possible effects of total disaster risks at schools using the risk assessment matrix method: The case of Konya
Yazar: İLKNUR GÜLER
Danışman: DOÇ. DR. AHMET ÇELEBİ
Sakarya Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Afet Yönetimi Ana Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2022
Konu: Deprem Mühendisliği = Earthquake Engineering
Dizin: Afet yönetmelikleri = Disaster regulations ; Doğal afetler = Natural disasters

Özet:
Doğal afetler gerek ülkemizin gerekse dünyanın kaçınılmaz bir gerçeğidir. Ülkemiz gerek arazi yapısı şekli, gerekse Alp Himalaya deprem kuşağı üzerinde yer alması sebebiyle genellikle doğal afetlerle karşılaşması büyük olasıdır. Afetler büyük oranda can, mal ve ekonomik kayıplara sebep olarak normal süreğen hayatı kesintiye uğratır.
Çocuklarımız 24 saatlik zaman diliminin büyük ve önemli bir kısmını okulda geçirmektedir. Her an bir afet veya acil durum ile karşı karşıya kalma olasılığı yüksektir. Afetler okulların yıkılmasına sebep olabileceği gibi okullardaki eğitim materyalerine zarar vererek öğrencilerin eğitim öğretime uzun bir müddet ara vermesine sebep olabilir. Doğal afetlerin meydana gelmesini engelleyemeyiz fakat bir takım önlemler alarak ortaya çıkabilecek olumsuzlukları kısmende olsa azaltmak mümkündür. Okullarımızda tehlike avı yaparak muhtemel bir afet acil durumda risk oluşturabilecek tehlikeler belirlenebilir. 
Bu çalışmada, okullarda afet ve acil durumlarda tehlike oluşturabilecek riskler ve muhtemel etkileri 5x5 L Matris Metodu kullanılarak matematiksel ifadelere çevrilmiş ve her bir okulun risk puanı hesaplanmıştır. Daha sonra okulların risk puanları birbiri ile  mukayese edilerek risk seviyeleri belirlenmiştir. Risk düzeyi belirlendikten sonra riskin önem durumu tespit edilir. Riskin önem derecesine göre en yüksek sonuçtan başlayarak gerekli tedbirler okul yönetimi tarafından alınır. 
Çalışmanın amacı, örnek olarak seçilmiş okullarda yerinde tespitler yaparak tehlikelerin belirlenmesi, olası risklerin minimize edilmesi ve risklerin tamamen yok edilmesi için getirilen tavsiyeleri ilgili okullar ile paylaşmaktır. Ayrıca bu çalışmada risk analiz yöntemlerinden biri olan 5x5 L Matris metodunun okul risklerinin tespiti açısından pratiğe nasıl konulduğunu göstermek amaçlanmıştır. Yapılan risk değerlendirme çalışmasında her bir okulun kabul edilemez ve kayda değer seviyeler olan "yüksek" ve "çok yüksek" risk değerine sahip olma oranı o okulun risk değerlendirmesindeki mevcut durumunu göstermektedir. 
Yapılan risk değerlendirme çalışmasında her bir okulun kabul edilemez ve kayda değer seviyeler olan "yüksek" ve "çok yüksek" risk değerine sahip olma oranı o okulun risk değerlendirmesindeki mevcut kritik risk durumunu göstermektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre beş okulun risk seviyeleri; örnek Anadolu Lisesi risk değerlendirme sonucunda %20 çok yüksek risk, %30 yüksek risk seviyesi olmak üzere toplamda %50 kritik risk seviyesine sahiptir. Örnek olarak çalışılan Mesleki ve Teknik Anadolu Lisesi %24 çok yüksek risk, %12 yüksek risk seviyesi olmak üzere toplamda %36 kritik risk seviyesine sahiptir. Örnek olarak çalışılan Ortaokul risk değerlendirme sonucunda %30 çok yüksek, %16 yüksek risk seviyesi olmak üzere toplamda %46 kritik risk seviyesine sahiptir. Örnek olarak çalışılan İlkokul risk değerlendirme sonucunda % 24 çok yüksek, %16 yüksek risk seviyesi olmak üzere toplamda %40 kritik risk seviyesine sahiptir. Örnek olarak çalışılan anaokulu risk değerlendirme sonucunda %12 çok yüksek, %14 yüksek risk seviyesi olmak üzere toplamda %26 kritik risk seviyesine sahiptir. Kritik risk seviye oranına en az sahip olan okul örnek olarak çalışma yapılan anaokuludur. Kritik risk seviye oranına en yüksek oranda sahip olan okul ise örnek olarak çalışma yapılan Anadolu Lisesi'dir.
Beş okul içinde derhal kritik risk seviye oranı azımsanmayacak durumda olduğu görülmektedir. Beş okul içinde derhal kritik seviyede olan tehlikeler giderilmelidir. Risk değerlendirme çalışmamızın bir diğer amacı da tespit edilen riskleri okullarımız ile paylaşmak, okullarımızın bu risklerin farkına varması ve giderilmelerinin sağlanmasıdır. Bu sayede okullarda afet öncesi yapılan risklere yönelik hazırlıklar olası bir afette geleceğimiz olan çocuklarımızı afetlerin olumsuz etkilerinden koruyabilecektir. 
Okullarda saptanan riskler ve bu risklere karşı alınması gereken tedbirler risk değerlendirme raporunda yer almaktadır.

Abstract:
Natural disasters are an inevitable reality of both our country and the world. It is highly likely that our country will encounter natural disasters in general due to its land structure and its location on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt. Disasters interrupt normal life by causing great loss of life, property and economic losses. 
Our children spend most of their 24-hour time at school. There is a high probability of facing a disaster or emergency at any time. Disasters may cause the collapse of schools, as well as damage the educational materials in schools and cause students to take a break from education for a long time. 
While the earthquakes of 17 August and 12 November, which occurred in the past, occurred during a time when the students were not at school, the school buildings were destroyed. Despite this, many teachers and students were affected and lost their lives as a result of this natural disaster. Therefore, it is very important that our schools are always prepared for any disaster or emergency. 
We cannot prevent the occurrence of natural disasters, but it is possible to partially reduce the negative effects that may arise by taking some precautions. Hazards that may pose a risk in a possible disaster emergency can be identified by hunting hazards in our schools. 
Hazard hunting is to identify items that may fall and break during an earthquake and cause injury, and to place them correctly. In other words, it is everything except the column, beam, load-bearing foundation and wall in the building. 
More than 50% of injuries in earthquakes in our country are caused by non-structural hazards. With danger hunting, dangers that may pose a risk in case of any disaster in schools are detected. Then, it is defined how these hazards can pose a risk. Finally, the places of the objects that may pose a risk can be changed, the amount can be reduced or these objects are fixed. The vulnerability that may occur after disasters can be reduced by taking precautions against these risks. At the same time, by making our schools more resistant to disasters and emergencies, the material and moral damages caused by disasters and emergencies will be minimized. 
When we examine it within the scope of integrated disaster management, this study falls within the scope of the mitigation phase. The mitigation phase is the most important phase in disaster management and forms the basis of disaster management.
There are many methods used in risk analysis studies. Basically, it is collected in two main groups as quantitative and qualitative. In the quantitative risk analysis method, quantitative data is used when calculating the risk, while in the qualitative risk assessment, a more qualitative assessment is made and the risk calculation is made by giving the values such as the probability and severity of the hazard and bearer values. 
The 5x5 L-Type Matrix Method can be applied by a single practitioner with intermediate experience. It is used to evaluate the cause and effect relationship. It is a very simple method that can be applied by a single person. This method was developed in 2000 to ensure the security of the US military. 
In this study, the risks that may pose a danger to schools in disasters and emergencies and their possible effects were translated into mathematical expressions using the 5x5 L Matrix Method and the risk score of each school was calculated. Then, the risk scores of the schools were compared with each other and the risk levels were determined. After the risk level is determined, the importance of the risk is determined. Necessary measures are taken by the school management starting from the highest result according to the degree of importance of the risk. 
The aim of the study is to share the recommendations with the relevant schools in order to identify the hazards, minimize the possible risks and completely eliminate the risks by making on-site determinations in the schools selected as examples. In addition, in this study, it is aimed to show how the 5x5 L Matrix method, which is one of the risk analysis methods, is put into practice in terms of detecting school risks. In the risk assessment study, the rate of each school having unacceptable and notable levels of "high" and "very high" risk shows the current status of that school in risk assessment. 
A school from each education level (Anatolian High School, Vocational and Technical Anatolian High School, Secondary School, Primary School, Kindergarten) was selected as a sample for the study. In the study, the determination of the risks that may occur in schools was determined by interviewing the school administration and based on observations. A risk table consisting of 50 questions was created by taking the opinion of occupational health and safety experts from Konya Provincial Directorate of National Education, Selçuklu District Directorate of National Education, and Meram District Directorate of National Education, who are experts in their fields. The same risk assessment control form with 50 questions was applied to the selected schools within the scope of the research. Risk levels specific to five schools and their potential impacts were compared, for which hazard analysis was carried out by on-site investigations. According to the risk results obtained specific to the schools evaluated, it was recommended to give priority to the items with "very high" and "high" risk levels, to take the necessary actions immediately and then to move on to other risk level items. 
In the risk assessment study, the rate of each school having unacceptable and notable levels of "high" and "very high" risk shows the current critical risk status of that school in the risk assessment. According to the results obtained, the risk levels of the five schools; As a result of the risk assessment, exemplary Anatolian High School has a critical risk level of 50%, with 20% being very high risk and 30% high risk. As an example, the Vocational and Technical Anatolian High School studied has a critical risk level of 36% in total, with 24% very high risk and 12% high risk level. As an example, the secondary school studied has a critical risk level of 46%, with 30% very high and 16% high as a result of risk assessment. As an example, the primary school studied has a critical risk level of 40% in total, with 24% very high and 16% high as a result of risk assessment. As an example, the kindergarten studied has a critical risk level of 26%, 12% very high and 14% high, as a result of risk assessment. The school with the lowest critical risk level ratio is the kindergarten studied as an example. The school with the highest rate of critical risk level is the Anatolian High School, which was studied as an example. 
Some of the negativities seen in the schools where the study was conducted were as follows. 
 Student desks in classrooms are adjacent to the windows. 
 The fire escape is used as the normal exit door of the students. 
 Emergency telephone numbers are not displayed in a visible place. 
 The emergency evacuation siren is not working. 
 There are no emergency direction signs. Items that can tip over are placed on cabinets in administrative units. 
 A few unfixed lockers were found in the corridors. 
 There is no shelter that can be used in an emergency. 
 No precautions were taken to prevent the students from being affected in case of breaking or shattering of the windows.
 The height of the handrails and railings is not sufficient.
 Materials that may fall on the cabinets are placed in the storage areas and are not fixed.
It is immediately seen that the critical risk level ratio among the five schools is not to be underestimated. Critical hazards within the five schools must be removed immediately. Another purpose of our risk assessment study is to share the identified risks with our schools, to make our schools aware of these risks and to ensure that they are eliminated. In this way, the preparations for the risks made in schools before the disaster will be able to protect our children, who are our future in a possible disaster, from the negative effects of disasters. 
The risks identified in schools and the measures to be taken against these risks are included in the risk assessment report. As a result of the risk assessment, some recommendations were made to the schools.