Konut sektöründe kamu-özel ortaklığı projelerinin ve çevresindeki gayrimenkullerin değer artışının değerlendirilmesi
Assessment of public-private partnerships in the housing sector and the effect on value increase of real estate
Yazar: ZEYNEP CANSU ERDOĞAN
Danışman: PROF. DR. ŞEVKİYE ŞENCE TÜRK
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Gayrimenkul Geliştirme Ana Bilim Dalı / Gayrimenkul Geliştirme Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2019
Konu: Şehircilik ve Bölge Planlama = Urban and Regional Planning

Özet:
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'deki konut sektöründe Kamu-özel Ortaklığı yöntemiyle geliştirilen büyük ölçekli projelerin, çevresindeki konut ve arsaların değer artışına etkisi incelenmiştir. İlk olarak dünyada ve Türkiye'de benzer konularda yapılan çalışmalara yönelik literatür araştırması yapılmıştır. Büyük konut projelerinin gayrimenkul değer artışına etkisini araştıran örnekler incelendikten sonra, Türkiye'de konut sektöründe Kamu-özel Ortaklıklarının kullanımı incelenmiştir.
İstanbul'da Kamu-özel Ortaklığı ile geliştirilen İstanbul'da konumlu 5 örnek proje alanı seçilmiştir. Örnek proje alanları seçilirken İstanbul'un farklı bölgelerinde konumlanmasına dikkat edilmiştir. Seçilen örnek proje alanlarının imar planları ile birlikte yakın çevredeki ulaşım projeleri de araştırılmıştır. İmar planları belediyelerin internet sitelerinden veya örnek proje alanı için hazırlanan gayrimenkul değerleme raporlarından elde edilmiştir. 
Projelerin çevresindeki arsa ve konutların satış fiyatlarına etkisini incelemek amaçlı yakın çevredeki arsa rayiç değerleri, konut satış fiyatları ve arsa satış fiyatları incelenmiştir. Örnek alanların çevresindeki arsa ve konutların eskiye yönelik satış verilerine gayrimenkul yatırım ortaklıklarının halkın bilgisine açık gayrimenkul değerleme raporlarından ulaşılmıştır.
Arsa rayiç değerleri 2005-2019 yılları arasında, örnek proje alanının yaklaşık 0 m, 250 m ve 500 m uzaklığındaki sokak ve caddeler seçilerek incelenmiş, projelerin başlangıç yılının arsa rayiç değerlerinin artışına etkisi olup olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Örnek proje alanları yakın çevresindeki arsa ve konutların satış verileri, projelerin başlangıç yılının bir önceki senesi ile tesliminden bir sonraki sene aralığında incelenmiştir. Bulgular sonucunda, örnek projelerinin başlangıcının arsa ve konutların değer artışlarını etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda, ilk hipotez olan "İstanbul'da Kamu-Özel Ortaklığı ile geliştirilen konut projelerinin, çevresindeki arsa ve konutların değer artışına etkisi vardır." kabul edilmiştir.
Analiz kısmının son aşamasında ise arsa rayiç değerleri, arsa satış fiyatları ve konut satış fiyatlarının artış oranları, gerçekte ne kadar artış gösterdiğini anlayabilmek amaçlı Dolar kuru artışı ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Karşılaştırma sonrası çıkan sonuçta, 5 örnek proje alanındaki 15 arsa rayiç değerinden 8'inin, dolar kur artışının üzerinde olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Arsa satış fiyatlarının artış oranları 5 proje bölgesinin 4'ünde dolar kurunun üzerinde kalmıştır. Konut satış fiyatları ise 5 proje bölgesinin 2'sinde Dolar kurunun üzerinde kalmıştır. Bu karşılaştırma sonucunda ikinci hipotez olan "İstanbul'da Kamu-Özel Ortaklığı ile geliştirilen konut projelerinin çevresinde konut ve arsa yatırımı yapmak kazançlıdır." kısmen kabul edilmiştir.

Abstract:
The aim of this thesis is to examine the effect of projects developed by public-private partnership on the value increase of the properties nearby (house and land). Emlak Konut Real Estate Investment Trust is a company that develops housing with public-private partnership in Turkey. Since 2005, 36 projects have been developed in collaboration with the private sector in Istanbul. After the construction of the lands developed, it is thought to have an impact on the value increase of the real estates around it. Property is seen as an investment instrument in the world and in Turkey, therefore the profit on investing in real estate around the land on which an Emlak Konut Real Estate Investment Trust is intended to develop is evaluated.
In order to test the thesis' hypotheses, a four-step method was developed. Firstly, a literature search was conducted for studies on similar subjects. Studies examining the impact of major projects on real estate value increase in Turkey and in the world have also been examined. Subsequently, domestic and foreign articles on Public-Private Partnerships and their use in housing production were selected, with special consideration given to reviews regarding countries such as Turkey, Netherlands and India. In addition, master theses of departments such as real estate development, law, public administration, and city planning were utilized.
In the second stage, all the projects developed by Emlak Konut Real Estate Investment Trust in Istanbul were examined and 5 different projects located in different regions of Istanbul were selected as sample areas. While selecting the projects, real estate appraisal reports of Real Estate Investment Trust's were examined in order to access the data of the land and houses around them. While selecting the projects, attention was paid to the real estate valuation reports prepared for these regions. In addition, the development plans in the locations where the selected projects are located are obtained from the website of the municipality or from the real estate appraisal reports. The transportation projects in the immediate vicinity of these projects were also investigated.
In the third stage, the sales prices of the land and houses around the selected projects are taken from the peer sales parts of the real estate valuation reports prepared for each region. The sales prices of the land and houses surrounding the selected projects were examined for each year within the range of one year before the project start date and one year after the delivery. In addition, the street(s) were selected at a distance of approximately 0 m, 250 m and 500 m from the land on which the project is located and the fair values of the land were found. The fair values of the land are examined for each year between 2005-2019. At some points not available in the appraisal report, news sites, archive sales and interviews with appraisal firms were used.
In the fourth stage, in order to determine the effect of the projects on the increase in the value of real estates in the vicinity, it was determined in which years the land fair values, housing and land sales prices increased the most. For the years with the highest increase, the approval dates of the zoning plans, the commencement date of the transportation projects and the starting dates of the project were also investigated. In the second part of the fourth stage, for the obtained land fair values, housing and land sale prices, the increase rates between the year before the start of the selected projects and the year after the delivery are determined. In order to understand how much the increase rates actually increased, the rates were compared with the dollar exchange rate increase.
The first selected project is İstmarina project located in Kartal Çavuşoğlu Neighborhood. It is a mixed-use project with 1463 residences over a land area of 62000-m². It is subsumed under Kartal Central Implementation Plan Update with 1/1000 scale, approved in 05/11/2012. The Kadıköy-Kartal subway line was opened in 2012, facilitating transport to Kartal. Investigation on the increase in fair values of land in between years 2005 and 2019 for Sanayi Avenue, Başkumandan Avenue and Neşeli Street, which respectively have a distance of 0 m, 250 m, and 500 m to Istmarina project, reveals the value increase to be highest for Sanayi Caddesi located near the project. It is evident that 2014, the startup year of Istmarina project, had an increasing effect on the fair value of land. House and land sales prices around Istmarina in between years 2013 and 2018 have been examined. 2014 was found to be the year that house and land sales prices had the highest increase rates.
The second selected project is Evora İstanbul located in Tuzla Aydıntepe neighborhood. A total of 4969 residences exist in this housing project established on a land of 300000-m². It happens to be within boundaries of the Development Plan for Aydıntepe Neighborhood Favela Prevention Application with date 31/05/2010. The second phase of project comprises a renovation of the same plan with date 21/01/2011. The transportation facilities have increased with the opening of Marmaray's Tuzla Station in 2019. For years between 2005 and 2011, the fair values of land have been examined for Batu Street, 100.Yıl Avenue and Coşkun Street, located respectively at a distance of 0 m, 250 m, and 500 m. For all three streets, the highest increase was found to have happened in 2010. This increase in fair values of land is thought to be due to the application development plan approved in 31/05/2010. The increase in land and house prices has been examined for years between 2010 and 2016. Sales prices for both lands and houses were found to have the highest increase in 2011. It is thought that the reason could be the startup of Evora İstanbul project 2011.
The third selected project is Maslak 1453 project located in Sarıyer. The construction was started in 2012, and the delivery was actualized in 2017. It is located over a land of 320000 m², and hosts 4789 residences in total. After being declared as Favela Prevention Zone in 11/08/2010, the land for the project has been subsumed under Ayazağa Favela Prevention Zone Application Development Plan of 1/5000 scale. Another plan in the area is Nazım Development Plan approved in 13/04/2013 in Maslak and periphery, with a scale of 1/5000. Transportation to area on which the project is located was facilitated after the opening of İTÜ-Ayazağa Station of Yenikapı-Hacıosman metro line in 2009. Increase in fair values of land for years between 2005 and 2019 for Söğütözü Street, Ahi Evran Avenue and Maslak AOS 54th Street, which have approximate distances of 0 m, 250 m, 500 m, respectively to Maslak 1453 project, have been examined. 2014 was found to be the year of highest increase in the fair value of land for Söğütözü Street. This increase in 2014 can be said to have happened due to startup of Maslak 1453 project, rise in construction prices, and 1/5000 scaled Nazım Development Plan approved in 2013 in Maslak and periphery. Fair value of land for Maslak AOS 54th Street had the highest increase in 2010. This increase in 2010 could be attributed to the fact that the region over which the project resides had been subsumed under Ayazağa Favela Prevention Zone Application Development Plan. Increase in sales prices for land and houses in years between 2011 and 2018 have been examined. 2014 was found to be the year of highest increase for both lands and houses.
The fourth selected project is Batışehir project located in Bağcılar Göztepe Neighborhood. It is a mixed project located over 165000-m² of land. The construction of it has been started in 2011, with the delivery actualized in 2016. It hosts a total of 3148 residences. Batışehir project is subsumed under 1/1000 scaled Mass Housing Area Application Development Plan of İstanbul Province Bağcılar County Habipler District 1562 Block 2-3-9 Parcels and close periphery of date 16/05/2010. Transportation to area on which Batışehir project is located, has been facilitated with the opening of İstoç station of Kirazlı-Başakşehir-Olimpiyat metro line in 2013. Increase in fair values of land for years between 2005 and 2019 for İstoç 5th Avenue, 2263rd Street and Veysel Karani Avenue, which have approximate distances of 0 m, 250 m, 500 m respectively to Batışehir project, have been examined. The increase in fair values of land is seen to have happened in 2010 for all three streets, which can be attributed to İstanbul Province Bağcılar County Habipler District 1562 Block 2-3-9 Parcels and Periphery Mass Housing Area Application Development Plan. This development plan has definitively confirmed that a project will be constructed to the mentioned area. The increase in land and house sales prices between years 2010 and 2017 has been examined. 2014 was found to be the year in which land sales prices have increased the most, whereas 2013 has been the year of the most increase in sales prices for housing. İstoç station of Kirazlı-Başakşehir-Olimpiyat metro, opened and put into service in 2013, has facilitated transport to area over which Batışehir project is located. The high increase rates in house and land prices in years 2013 and 2014 could be due to opening of that metro station.
The fifth project is Seyranşehir project located in Başakşehir Kayabaşı neighborhood. Seyranşehir project started in 2014 and finished in 2016. There are 220 residences in this project covering 23.170 m². Kayabaşı neighborhood was first zoned for housing with Kayabaşı Revision Master Plan, with confirmation date 25.02.2010 and 1/1000 scale. On 22 April 2016, it was added to Kayabaşı Slum Prevention Area Revision Master Plan scaled 1/1000. Kirazlı-Başakşehir-Olimpiyat metro line that was opened in 2013 made transportation easier to Kayaşehir neighborhood. Market value increases between 2005-2019 has been analyzed for Kayaşehir Boulevard, Şehir Semih Balaban Avenue and Ulubatlı Hasan Avenue which are 0 m., 250 m. and 500 m. to Seyranşehir project. The highest increase in land prices on each street/avenue has been seen in 2010. It can be said that the reason for this high increase in 2010 is Kayabaşı Revision Master Plan scaled 1/1000. Value increase in land and residence prices between 2013-2017 was analyzed. It was found out that both land and residence values increased the most in 2014. It can be said that Seyranşehir project affected the market, and so land and residence values around the project increased.
As a result of the analysis, the first hypothesis was accepted: "Public and private partnership housing projects has a direct effect on the land and residence values around the project."
In the second part of analysis, land and residence values and prices were determined throughout the year before these 5 projects start. This research was conducted for the streets around the projects (approximately up to 500 m., 3 streets/avenues). The land and residence market values and prices were also analyzed throughout the year after these 5 projects. The research area covered approximately up to 500 m. and 3 streets/avenues. After that, the difference between the project and after the project was found proportionately. The difference was also compared with the dollar increase rate. After the comparison, it was found out that the price increase of 8 lands out of 15 were more than dollar exchange rate increase. In 4 project area out of 5, the prices increased more than the dollar exchange rate. On the other hand, it was 2 out of 5 for the residence prices.
In the last part of analysis, it was found out that the land prices increase more than residences. The main reason or that the increase in residence supply, while there is a decrease in land supply. As a result of this comparison, the second hypothesis has been partially accepted: "It is profitable to make residence and land investment around public-private venture housing projects in İstanbul."