Turkey's energy investment planning process evaluation by using fuzzy AHP method
Türkiye'nin enerji yatırımlarının planlanması sürecinin bulanık AHP yöntemi ile değerlendirilmesi
Yazar: MUHİTTİN EMİR ATÇI
Danışman: PROF. DR. DEMET BAYRAKTAR
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / İşletme Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2012
Konu: Enerji = Energy
Dizin: Karar destek sistemleri = Decision support systems ; Yenilenebilir enerji = Renewable energy ; Çok kriterli karar verme = Multi criteria decision making

Özet:
Son yıllarda enerji alanındaki gelişmelere paralel olarak ülkeler ileriye dönük enerji arz paket planlamalarını çok detaylı bir şekilde ele almaya başlamışlardır. Fosil kaynaklı enerjilerin gün geçtikçe ülke ekonomilerine oluşturdukları baskının artması farklı enerji alternatiflerinin ele alınması konusunu net bir şekilde ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Bununla beraber bir ulusun kalkınabilirliği, o ulusun çağdaş bir medeniyet haline gelmesi sürecinde enerji kullanımını dışarıya en az bağımlı olacak seviyeye getirebilmesiyle direkt olarak ilişkili olduğundan, konunun ne kadar önemli ve üzerinde durulması gerektiğini göstermektedir. Türkiye, enerji kaynaklarına sahiplik bakımından çok önemli bir konumda bulunmaktadır ancak kullandığımız enerjinin büyük bir kısmını ithal ederek karşılamaktayız.Son yıllarda özellikle küresel enerji piyasasındaki değişimlerde göz önünde bulundurularak Türkiye'nin önemli adımlar attığını görmekteyiz. Alternatif enerji kaynaklarına yapılan yatırımlar ve pazar dinamiklerinin oluşturulması için yapılan teşviklerin ne kadar olumlu bir etki yarattığı üzerinde hem bilim dünyası hem de iş dünyası aynı fikirde olup, daha alınması gereken çok mesafe olduğunun da ayrıca altını çizmektedirler. Rüzgâr enerjisi tarafındaki gelişmeler bunun sadece bir örneği olarak nitelendirilebilir. Bilim dünyasının desteğinin burada önemli bir paya sahip olması gerektiğinin de altı çizilmelidir. Yenilenebilir enerji alanında son dönemlerde yapılan çalışmaların da iş ve politik alandaki karar vericilerin kullanabileceği şekilde yapılması dikkat çekicidir. Karar vermenin karışık olduğu durumlarda sistemin tasarlanması ve karar sürecine bu etkinin en az şekilde etki etmesini sağlamak için birçok yöntem bulunmaktadır. Bunlardan Bulanık AHP yöntemi son zamanlarda enerji alanında farklı alternatiflerin ulusal düzeyde değerlendirilmesinde kullanılmıştır. Analiz tarafında her bir detayın sistem içindeki önemi büyüktür ve birçok karar vericinin sürece alınması ve kararların birleştirilmesi tarafında önemli artıları bulunan bu yöntemin kullanılması da buna dayanmaktadır. Tez kapsamında son yıllarda önemli gelişmelere tanıklık eden enerji kaynakları ele alınmıştır. Küresel eğilimin nereye gittiği ülkemizdeki durum analizlerinin yapılması ile sentezlenerek ulusal düzeyde nasıl bir yol haritası çizilmesi gerektiğine yönelik değişik seçimlere ulaşmamızda yardımcı olabilmesi amaçlanarak detaylandırılmıştır. Karar vericilerin mühendislerden oluştuğu göz önünde bulundurularak, iş dünyasının görüşleri de önemli ölçütte verilerek kararın daha efektif olması sağlanmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu tezde yapılan çalışmanın enerji alanında ileriye dönük çalışmalara yardımcı olacağı ve bu tarz katma değeri büyük ölçekteki çalışmalara teşvik eden bir kaynak olacağı düşünülmektedir.

Abstract:
Countries started to consider their future energy supply packages planning in a very detailed manner in recent years in parallel with the developments in the energy field. Increase of the pressure day by day that fossil based energies create on countries? economies, reveals clearly the subject that it has to be addressed other different energy alternatives. However, the progress of a nation is directly related with the least level of dependency to abroad energy use during the nation has become a modern civilization and this fact shows how important the topic is and how we should focus on it. Turkey has a very important position in terms of ownership of energy resources but we meet a large amount of the energy by importing. In recent years, especially considering the variations in the global energy market, we see that Turkey has taken important steps.Regarding to Turkey?s development process, it is necessary that new energy sources have to be considered for future. Energy usage is really important for a country like Turkey because growing is related with the energy dependency in the international market. If you have the power, you can consume it for your next generations? life standardization. More sustainable energy means a more acceleration in terms of progress from each perspective.It is not easy to obtain the optimal energy supply combination for a country. The internal dynamics and external factors directly influence the decisions. The first thing is that a deep market analysis has to be done for gathering in depth information about the trends in the global world. While doing this, another search has to be conducted for understanding the general case at national level.Energy planning has a complex nature, for decreasing this problematic side; researchers have to deploy the model via objective values rather than using subjective judgments. At this point, the balance between these two opposite sides has to be obtained. For providing a realistic solution, you have to give importance to the consistency of comments. When you decide to create a group of people; it would be good to choose them from the sector that have got good level of know-how and can assume the strategic actions that companies can take for their future development in the energy industry.Scientific and business world agree on the positive impact of the investments in alternative energy resources and the incentives for the creation of the market dynamics but they also underline that there is still a far distance to be taken. The developments in the wind energy side can be regarded as just one example of this case. It must be mentioned that the support of the scientific community has to have an important share in this process. It is also remarkable that the studies in the field of renewable energy in recent years are made in a way that the decision makers in business and political area can use effectively. There are lots of methods which provide to design the system and to minimize the negative effects to decision making process when decision making is complex.The Fuzzy AHP method has been used recently in energy field to evaluate different alternatives at national level. In the analysis side, every detail has an importance in the system and the reason to use this method based on the number of the decision makers and combining process of their decisions. The energy sources that witnessed to important developments in recent years are discussed in the scope of this thesis. Global trend is synthesized by making different case analysis within our country to provide drawing a national road map that ensures reaching different choices at national level.It has to known that the optimization process has always a tendency which aims to reach a better solution. Each step will make you closer to the optimal point that you want to get. This model can be developed and provided for obtaining more effective results from the existing system. There are lots of views of this big question but every single detail can add you an information even maybe a vision.These scientific searches must be supported by the business world. These two sides contribution has an essential meaning for the upcoming projects. In today?s world, all of big scale researches are done with the help of funds. Global companies possess an important position in these developments. If we can secure this relationship and make it stronger, we will definitely get more concrete results from the studies. All of them are performed to make an added value for any chain in its environment. The significant point is that globalization influences the whole world; markets are getting closer, the interaction between them is higher than the past and the economies are connected at the moment. A crisis that can occur in one country can easily affect the other countries in the same region even globally. When we look from this perspective, to create a better condition for every situation, both scientific and business communities have to work together by showing solidarity, confidence and substantiality. For every sector, the studies must be done by taking this philosophy as a fundamental. The nations which can realize this sooner, they will be the ones which can reach to a higher modern civilization level at the earliest.Taking into consideration that decision makers are consisted of engineers but it is also given the business worlds views in an important scale to get a more valid decision. By providing this, we are aiming to get the optimal solution from the model. When it is time to make an investment, the management level is taking the decisions. Engineers have technical profiles and they are dealing with other responsibilities. Management level is commercial, sales and marketing oriented. People, who are at this stage, have different working attitudes and responsibilities. They are the ones who are managing the whole financial situation for the company. They have strategic visions, ideas which can lead and drive the company in the business effectively. That?s why, business worlds view has taken into consideration in this thesis.Study that is made in this thesis would be helpful in future studies in energy area and it was thought to encourage this kind of large scale studies. Getting the most added values is the important thing. In this study, there is a huge literature overview which creates the union of lots of large scale articles and studies with updated data for energy field. This can be used for other projects in the same area. From the business side, there is a picture which includes different comments and evaluations of big companies in the market both globally and locally. The trends, last developments in the technology for each specific energy sources are analyzed. The main idea behind this in depth search is that to better understand the principle subject and its refractions. To manage this complex decision system, the details were the crucial factors that have to be considered blow by blow. As a result, this study combined technical knowhow with business approach for getting a more realistic decision. The methodology that is implemented is chosen after the scanning all of the researches related with this thesis. In further study, this model can be used for a specific energy area or this can be combined with a cost analysis modeling for a specific energy source.