Toplu deniz taşımacılığına yönelik değişik koşullardaki acil durum tahliye sürecinin modellenmesi, analizi ve planlanması
A methodological approach for modelling, analysis and planning of emergency evacuation process in public marine transportation systems
Yazar: PEIMAN ALIPOUR SARVANI
Danışman: PROF. DR. ALP ÜSTÜNDAĞ ; DOÇ. DR. EMRE ÇEVİKCAN
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Endüstri Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı / Endüstri Mühendisliği Bilim Dalı
Derece: Doktora, 2017
Konu: Denizcilik = Marine ; Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği = Industrial and Industrial Engineering ; Kazalar = Accidents

Özet:
Toplu deniz taşımacılığında artan talep ve sefer çeşitliliği neticesinde, yolcu gemilerinde daha kalabalık insan grupları bir arada bulunur hale gelmektedir. Acil durum tahliye çalışmalarının etkin planlama yoluyla desteklenmesi, yolcuların ve mürettebatın emniyeti için hayati öneme sahiptir. Bu bağlamda, kamu deniz taşımacılığının potansiyeli ve tahliyenin yaşam güvenliği üzerindeki etkisi bu tezin hazırlanmasına esin kaynağı olmuştur. Yapılan tezin amacı yolcu gemisindeki yolcu faktörleri ve oluşabilecek değişik koşullardaki acil durumlar ile ilgili değişik senaryolarda tahliye sürecinin hızlı ve güvenli bir şekilde gerçekleştirilmesine yönelik karar desteği (yolcu rotalama ve mürettebat planlama açısından) sağlanması ve yolcu gemisi tahliye faktörlerinin ve bu faktörlerin tahliye performansına etkilerinin belirlenmesidir. Bu amaçla, literatüre bütünsel bir metodoloji geliştirilerek katkı sağlanmıştır. Projede geliştirilen metodoloji kapsamında yolcuların demografik özellikleri anket ile belirlenmiş olup, değişik acil durum senaryolarının simülasyonu (benzetimi) Maritime EXODUS V5.1 and SMARTFIRE V4.3 yazılımları kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Simülasyon sonuçlarının istatistiksel analizi gerçekleştirilmiş ve tahliye faktörlerinin etki dereceleri saptanmıştır. İstatistiksel analiz sonuçları ışığında seyahat öncesi planlama, tahliye tahmini ve acil durum anı planlama modüllerinden oluşan bir karar destek sistemi tasarlanmıştır. Ayrıca, tahliye planları oluşturulurken kullanılması amacı ile yeni bir rotalama algoritması geliştirilmiştir. Geliştirilen metodoloji İDO-İstanbul Deniz Otobüsleri Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş. filosunda bulunan en yüksek kapasiteli Ro-Ro feribotunda uygulanmış olup, geliştirilen rotalama sistematiği diğer rotalama alternatiflerine kıyasla daha kısa süreli ve daha düşük can kaybı sayısı ile tahliye sağlamıştır. Buna ek olarak, karar destek sisteminin tahmin modülü, test senaryolarının simülasyonuna oldukça yakın sonuç vermiş olup; tahliye planlama modülünün önerdiği tahliye planları ise uzman görüşleri ile oldukça tutarlı sonuçlar vermiştir.

Abstract:
More crowded groups of people gather in passenger ships as a result of increasing demand and variety of navigation. Supporting evacuation via effective planning has a vital importance for the salvation of passengers and crew. That being the case, the potential of public marine transportation and the effect of evacuation on life safety inspire the proposal of this thesis. This work is to plan emergency evacuation operations in a safe and fast manner with respect to the effects of disembarkation factors on the performance of evacuation processes. In this context, this thesis contributes to the related literature by providing a comprehensive methodology including simulation, statistical analysis stages as well as a three-module decision support system for maritime emergency evacuation processes. Emergency evacuation and fire environment have been simulated by Maritime EXODUS V5.1 and SMARTFIRE V4.3, respectively. In addition, a novel routeing algorithm is developed and compared with current algorithms. The methodology is applied to a real life Ro-Ro ferry, and the results demonstrate the capability and efficiency of proposed passenger routeing approach and the validity of the developed decision support system.
Emergency management has emerged as vital trend considering the variety and destructiveness of disasters. Furthermore, each company/institution performing public marine transportation activities should consider the safety of its passengers and crew. In this context, providing efficient evacuation of passengers from ships becomes an important concept on passenger safety. Emergency evacuation has been defined as directing or taking away many people from an area under the existing or potential hazard to a relatively safe place in a planned manner. Maritime emergency evacuation (MEE) can be very different from evacuation on building due to unawareness of passengers about ship layout, and the particular environmental factors limiting the movement ability of passengers like trim and heel. Some studies emphasized the fact that tremendous differences between estimated and realized evacuation times may occur in ship accidents due to inadequate evacuation planning as in the foundering of Sewol.
When considering the large body of literature, the following observations have been made about emergency evacuation studies for marine transportation.
•	There has not yet been any statistical analysis for specifying impacts of emergency evacuation factors.
•	A comprehensive MEE decision support system including the following functions has not been developed. 
o	suggesting the appropriate number of crew members, 
o	estimating evacuation time and death toll
o	providing guidance about evacuation plan
This thesis aims to reduce the evacuation time and lower the number of deaths using a methodology including concerns above. Regarding these implications, the standard of life safety of passengers is expected to be improved via the proposed methodology. Moreover, a novel routeing algorithm is developed within the method.
Decision support systems are designed to assist decision makers with a complicated problem in a computer-based environment. The challenge, therefore, is to develop a methodological-based systematic decision support system to ensure the accurate, safe and fast evacuation processes during emergencies in passenger ships. In order to fulfil this target, all possible conditions and situations while emergencies have to be taken into account. The thesis also contributes to exploring a methodology to select the best passenger routeings and crew assignments considering all possible hazardous situations like sinking and fire. Furthermore, for the first time, a reasonably efficient systematic is conducted to assess evacuation time and death toll based on simulation of each possible evacuation scenario.
A framework methodology has been designed to generate and to gauge all likely to happen hazardous conditions and emergency evacuations. Simulations make it possible to watch and reflect the passengers' behaviours during an emergency evacuation process considering the effects of environmental factors (concentration of toxic gas because of a fire, and having movement difficulties during foundering) and psychological factors like stress and panic. For this reason, the evacuation process of the passenger ship will be modelled using simulation techniques on the first phase of the methodology. During the formation of the scenarios to be simulated, the total number of passengers and passengers' dispersion levels within the halls (passenger factors); Trim and Heel angles and fire position (environmental factors) and passenger routeing methods (systematic) will be considered. Meanwhile, a simulator is going to use the results of the questionnaire about demographic information and behavioural preference for passengers as input. Evacuation time and the death toll will be considered as performance measures. In the second phase, variance analysis will be performed to determine effects of evacuation factors on abandonment performance. The third phase of the methodology will develop a decision support system, consisting of pre-voyage, forecasting and during emergency modules. Details about the modules of the DSS are explained as:
Pre-Voyage Emergency Planning Module: This operation-based module is going to determine the ideal number of crew regarding evacuation performance considering the type of the ship and the number of passengers. This function has provided by "Situation-based Inference" depending on the simulation results. Therefore, the adequate number of the crew could be determined by the first module based on the total number of passengers before to voyage. 
Estimation Module of Emergency Evacuation: The second module is intended to provide numerical support to the decision maker regarding the duration of evacuation and possible deaths when an emergency is encountered, and while requesting help. Furthermore, it will increase the added values by specifying the urgency notification level. For this aim, the module will use parameters such as; the number of passengers, the number of crew, and fire and/or sinking status. Predictions related to evacuation time and the death toll will be conducted by "Situation based Interference" method, while the cases are going to be considered as scenarios that consist of particular conditions and various levels of simulation factors.
Emergency State Planning Module: The activity-based planning module will provide evacuation procedures those are unique to the fire locations and sinking directions considering the number of passengers. Alternative evacuation plans that intended to be performed visually in a formal and textual manner will include crew locations, passenger routes and evacuation points. The evacuation plan based upon given number of passengers and conditions of environmental factors will be determined by using IF-THEN rules.
The fleet of Istanbul Sea Buses Industry and Trade (IDO) has been considered to apply each methodological step. Hereby, Osman Gazi ferry that commuting between Istanbul (Yenikapi) and Bursa (in 2016 the ship carried 1.154.088 passengers) has been selected as the case. The passenger capacity of the ferry is 1200 containing 16 crew (captain, chief engineer, first mate, sailor (4 persons), motorman (3 persons), customer representative, buffet personnel (3 persons), cleaning staff (three persons)). This feature makes the ferry the highest passenger capacitated vessel among the other ships in the fleet of IDO. What's more, there are six maritime evacuation systems (MES) on the ferry that can be ready in sixty seconds.
As the required parameters for the simulation, demographic information (i.e. gender, age) and physical specifications (height, weight, disability) of passengers, have been gathered by a questionnaire. Also, the survey has obtained the information like swimming knowledge, travel frequencies, experience in any emergency case or practice as well as knowledge levels about ship layout. Categorical scaling has been used in the response parts due to its consistency with the current survey questions. Before the application phase, the survey has been conducted for a group of 30 persons as a pilot practice, and then it was modified to the final version. 
The questionnaire has been addressed to 1563 passengers during the survey, and 594 individuals have responded (participation rate: 38%); therefore, the sample size has been indicated as 594. Systematic sampling technique has used as the sampling method. Before developing simulation scenarios, a passenger routeing systematic has been developed for the sake of ensuring the efficient evacuation of passengers regarding the evacuation time and death toll.
The thesis is thought to improve planning and control capability of administrators who are related to evacuation management. Moreover, results and conclusions, achieved by this thesis, could provide guidelines and support legislations for ship design and crew scheduling. Consequently, it should also be emphasised that the proposed methodology is expandable to other passenger ships.
This decision support system is being further developed, and we will improve it by integrating an identification system to gain a real-time specification of passengers and crew flows during an emergency. Furthermore, one can analyse the evacuation performance considering psychological aspects of passenger behaviour via agent-based simulation.