İstanbul ve çevresinde rüzgar-güneş hibrit sisteminin karşılama oranlarının belirlenerek ANFIS tabanlı modellenmesi
ANFIS based modeling with determining compensation rate for wind-solar hybrid system in the vicinity of Istanbul
Yazar: ESRA GÜN
Danışman: PROF. DR. AHMET DURAN ŞAHİN
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Meteoroloji Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı / Atmosfer Bilimleri Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2019
Konu: Enerji = Energy ; Meteoroloji = Meteorology ; İstatistik = Statistics
Dizin: Güneş enerjisi = Solar energy ; Rüzgar enerjisi = Wind energy ; Sinirsel bulanık mantık = Neuro fuzzy logic ; Yenilenebilir enerji = Renewable energy

Özet:
Günümüzde sürekli artan bir enerji ihtiyacı gözardı edilemez bir gerçektir. Elektrik enerjisi ihtiyacının karşılanması için ilk olarak fosil kaynaklar tecih edilmiş ve kullanımı artarak devam etmiştir.  Ancak 1970'li yılların başında ortaya çıkan petrol krizi ve 90'lı yıllarda fosil yakıtların fazlaca kullanımına bağlı olarak görülen petrol küresel ısınma; enerji ihtiyacının karşılanmasında yenilenebilir ve temiz kaynaklara yönlendirmiştir. Rüzgar ve güneşe dayalı yenilenebilir sistemlerin ortaya çıkması ile, iki sistemin birleştirilerek kullanılmasını sağlayan hibrit sistemler doğmuştur.
İstanbul ve çevresinde yapılan ölçüm verileri ile rüzgar ve güneş analizleri yapılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda rüzgar güneş ve hibrit üretimleri aylık ve saatlik profiller ile incelnemiş ve elektiriğin toptan satış fiyatı üzerinden yıllık hasılat değeri hesaplanarak aylık saatlik profilleri oluşturulmuştur. 
Ömerli, Ormanlı, Bağırganlı, Melen Yolu ve Kıyıköy olmak üzere toplam beş bölgenin detaylı rüzgar, güneş, hibrit üretim ve hasılat analizleri yapılmıştır. Analizde aynı marka ve model türbin, invertör ve paneller kullanılmıştır. 
Bu çalışmada belirlenen bölgeler için rüzgar ve güneş potansiyelleri incelenerek, rüzgar-güneş hibrit sistem için kapasite faktörleri belirlenerek modellenmiştir. AWS Openwind programı ile belirlenen sahaların rüzgar potansiyelleri belirlenerek, saatlik üretim analizlari yapılmıştır. PVsyst programı ile de güneş analizleri yapılarak saatlik üretim sonuçları elde edilmiştir. Elde edilen üretimler birer yıllık saatlik veri setlerine dönüştürülerek hibrit üretim analizi değerlendirmesi yapılmıştır.  
İstanbul Anadolu yakasında bulunan Ömerli ölçüm verilerine yapılan Openwind rüzgar analizleri ve PVsyst güneş analizleri sonucunda hesaplanan rüzgar ve güneş faktörleri sırasıyla %26 ve %23'tür. Rüzgar ve güneşin saatlik üretim değerlerine göre hesaplanan hibrit kapasite faktörü de %24'tür. Hibrit üretim profilinde her bir ay için saatlik ortalama değerler ile, seçilen ayın tüm aylarla olan saatlik ortlama değerlerinin saçılma diyagramları incelenmiş ve korelasyonları hesaplanmıştır. Biribirleri ile en yüksek korelasyona sahip aylar belirlenmiştir. En ilişkinin temmuz ve ağustos ayları arasında olduğu görülmüştür. 
İstanbul Avrupa yakasında bulunan Ormanlı ölçüm verileri ile yapılan rüzgar ve güneş analizleri sonucunda hesaplanan rüzgar, güneş faktörleri sırasıyla %34 ve %23'tür. Rüzgar ve güneşin saatlik üretim değerlerine göre hesaplanan hibrit kapasite faktörü de %28'dir. Ormanlı için yapılan değerlendirme sonucunda da en fazla ilişkiye sahip olan ayların Haziran-Temmuz ayları olduğu belirlenmiştir.
Hibrit sisteminin aylık toplam üretim değerlerini hangi oranlarda hangi kaynağın karşıladığı incelenmiştir. Aylık oranlar göz önünde bulundurulduğunda rüzgarın karşılama oranı yüksek iken güneşin düşük, güneşin karşılama oranının yüksek iken de rüzgarın düşük olduğu; zaman zaman da eşit ve eşite yakın karşılama oranlarına sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Rüzgar ve güneşin kaynak olarak birbirlerini tamamladığı görülmektedir.
ANFIS modellemesi bulunan ortalama değerler ve veri setleri arasındaki ilişkiler ile yapılmış ve bulanık mantık kullanılarak ilişkiler değerlendirilmiş ve modellenmiştir. ANFIS ile rüzgar, güneş ve hibrit için yıllık-saatlik üretim değerleri bulanık mantık ile değerlendirilmiştir. Gerçek veri ile ANFIS'in ilişkilendirilerek hesaplayıp sonuç olarak oluşturduğu veriler arasındaki ilişkiler incelenmiştir. Rüzgar, güneş ve hibrit üretim değerleri ile bir sonraki ayın hibrit üretimi arasında ANFIS ile kurulan ilişkinin güçlü olduğu görülmüştür.

Abstract:
The need for an ever-increasing energy is a fact that cannot be ignored. In order to meet the electricity demand, fossil resources were first used and their use continued increasingly. However, the oil crisis that emerged in the early 70s and the global warming of oil in the 90s due to the excessive use of fossil fuels; energy to meet renewable and clean resources. Wind energy, which has been used for different purposes since the past, has been one of the energy sources which is seen as a renewable electrical energy source. Wind energy has become one of the most important energy sources today due to the high efficiency of wind turbines in the region with good wind speed potential and economic and technical constraints on fossil fuels. Solar energy has also been affected by these developments and has been in demand. Technological progress and cost reduction, as well as being able to be used in the feeding of small loads as well as being able to be used in the feeding of large loads positively affected the spread of solar energy systems. Wind and solar renewable energy sources can generate electricity independently of the grid or connected to the interconnected system. With the emergence of renewable systems based on wind and solar, hybrid systems have been born which enable the use of two systems by combining them.
Turkey's highest sunshine hours due to the high solar energy is the region of Southeast Anatolia has the potential Mediterranean, Eastern Anatolia, Central Anatolia, Aegean, Marmara and Black Sea regions respectively following.  Turkey Wind Atlas mean wind speed in the 50-meter-high residential areas, except by the Marmara and West Black Sea coastal areas from 6.0 to 7.0 m/s and the inner side of these regions 5.5-6.5 m / s, eastern Black Sea coast 5.0 m/s in the inner and inner parts, 7.0–8.5 m/s in the North West Aegean coast and 6.0–7.0 m/s in the inner parts of this region, 5.0–6 in the Western Mediterranean coast, 0 m/s and 4.5-5.5 m/s in the inner parts of this region.
Renewable energy sources are extremely attractive because they do not run out and do not have any significant harm to other sources in terms of environment and human health. The aim of hybrid systems is to increase the efficiency by providing the use of energy resources together and to ensure that others meet the energy needs of the system if one of the resources is not or decreases. The hybrid system components are formed by combining two or more sources.
Wind and solar energy systems have been taken into consideration the possibility of generation or surplus electricity production that is not enough for the system due to the external factors that change from time to time and the concepts of hybrid energy system and storage of excess energy have been born accordingly. Hybrid energy systems are defined as energy systems where two or more energy sources are used together to generate electrical energy. Hybrid energy systems can be designed as energy systems such as hydro-wind-diesel, wind-diesel, solar-hydrogen, wind-solar. Hybrid energy systems can be network-independent or grid-connected. In addition, they can feed any electrical charge or be connected to the interconnected system to act as an electrical power plant.
There are many methods for calculating the energy produced from renewable sources and programs developed accordingly. Programs such as Wasp, WindPro, Openwind, Meteodyn for wind power generation analysis; PVsyst, SAM, PVsol are used for solar energy analysis.
In this study, the wind and solar potentials for the identified regions were examined and the capacity factors for the wind-solar hybrid system were determined and modeled. Wind potentials of the sites determined by AWS Openwind program were determined and hourly production analyzes were performed. Solar analysis was performed with PVsyst program and hourly production results were obtained. The obtained productions were converted into one-year hourly data sets and hybrid production analysis was evaluated.
The wind and solar factors calculated as a result of Openwind wind analyzes and PVsyst solar analyzes made on the measurement data of Ömerli project located on the Anatolian side of Istanbul are 26% and 23% respectively. The hybrid capacity factor calculated according to hourly production values of wind and sun is 24%. In the hybrid production profile, the scattering diagrams of hourly average values for each month and hourly average values of all months of the selected month were examined and their correlations were calculated. The months with the highest correlation with each other were determined. The most significant relationship was between July and August.
Wind and solar factors calculated as a result of the wind and solar analyzes made by the measurement data of Ormanlı project located on the European side of Istanbul are 34% and 23% respectively. Hybrid capacity factor calculated according to hourly production values of wind and sun is 28%. As a result of the evaluation made for Ormanlı, it was determined that the months with the most relationship were June-July.
ANFIS modeling was done with the relationships between the mean values and data sets and relations were evaluated and modeled using fuzzy logic. With ANFIS, annual-hour production values for wind, solar and hybrid were evaluated with fuzzy logic.
Monthly total production values of the hybrid system were analyzed by which source and at which ratios. Considering the monthly rates, it was found that the wind was low while the sun was low and the wind was low when the sun was high; from time to time, it has equal and close coverage ratios. It is seen that wind and sun complement each other as a source. 
According to the results of the analysis, the highest project in terms of wind production, capacity factor and revenue is Ormanlı and the lowest project is Kıyıköy. It is the highest region in terms of forested wind production. Ormanlı is followed by Ömerli, Melen Yolu, Bağırganlı and Kıyıköy respectively. The regions with the highest solar capacity factor are Melen Road and Bağırganlı. The highest region in terms of hybrid production and capacity factor is Ormanlı. Ormanlı is followed by Melen Yolu, Bağırganlı, Ömerli and Kıyıköy respectively.
For Ormanlı, Melen Road, Bağırganlı, Ömerli and Kıyıköy hybrid systems, the ratio of the total production of the system is calculated by calculating the source ratio of skiing in terms of the total production value of the system. The months of annual production of the total hybrid system are also calculated.
Wind and solar profiles change monthly and hourly. Monthly and hourly production values for Ömerli were taken into consideration and the ratio of the total production value of the system was calculated. Monthly total production values of the hybrid system were analyzed by which source and at which ratios. Considering the monthly rates, it was found that the wind was low while the sun was low and the wind was low when the sun was high; from time to time, it has equal and close coverage ratios. It is seen that wind and sun complement each other as a source.
ANFIS modeling was done with the relationships between the mean values and data sets and relations were evaluated and modeled using fuzzy logic. With ANFIS, annual-hour production values for wind, solar and hybrid were evaluated with fuzzy logic. The relationship between the actual data and the data that ANFIS creates and calculated as a result is examined. The relationship between ANFIS and wind, solar and hybrid production values and the next month's hybrid production was strong.