Nakit yönetimi
Cash management
Yazar: HASAN ERCAN KURTOĞLU
Danışman: PROF. DR. NİYAZİ BERK
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 1993
Konu: İşletme = Business Administration
Dizin: Nakit yönetimi = Cash management ; İşletme mühendisliği = Business engineering

Özet:
Bir firmanın aktif değerlere yaptığı yaptığı yatırımlar incelenirken genellikle ilk hareket noktası, para ve para benzerlerini, diğer bir deyimle likit fonları yönetmede, kontrol etmede ne ölçüde etkinlik sağladığım saptamaktır. Burada kullanılan anlamıyla para benzerleri terimi, firmanın likidite amacıyla elinde bulundurduğu, gereksinme duyulduğu an kolaylıkla paraya çevrilebilme olanağına sahip ve firmaya genellikle faiz şeklinde gelir sağlayan menkul değerleri (finansal varlıkları), özellikle kısa süreli hazine bonoları ile devlet tahvillerini içermektedir. Bu çalışmada nakit yönetimi kavramı açıklandıktan sonra firmaların elde para tutma nedenleri; muamele, ihtiyat ve spekülasyon güdüleri açıklanmakta ve para tutmanın fayda ve maliyeti karşılaşunlmaktadır. Nakit bulundurma ihtiyacım etkileyen dokuz faktör incelendikten sonra, nakit akışlarının önceden tahmin edilebilmesi için hazırlanması gereken nakit bütçesi ele alınmaktadır. Nakit bütçesi bir firmanın ileriye dönük çeşitli zaman aralıklarına ait nakit giriş ve çıkışlarının bir projeksiyonudur. Finansman yöneticisine, incelenen süre içerisinde beklenen nakit giriş ve çıkışlarının ne zaman gerçekleşeceğini gösteren bir planlama aracıdır. Finans yöneticisinin nakit yönetimi için bazı kararlar alması gerekmektedir. Bu kararlar; nakit tahsilatı ve ödemeler yönetimi, optimum nakit tutarının saptanması ve nakit fazlasının kısa süreli yatırırım araçlarına yatırılması ile ilgilidir. Nakit tahsilatının mümkün olduğunca hızlandırılması ve ödemelerin mümkün olduğunca yavaşlatılması gerekmektedir. Bu amaçlara yönelik çeşitli stratejiler bu çalışmada ele alınmıştır. Firmaların belirlemeleri gereken en önemli konu optimum nakit düzeyidir. Firmanın gelecek dönem veya dönemlere ilişkin para akışları tahmin edildikten ve likit fon tutmanın maliyeti ve yararlan gerçekçi bir şekilde saptandıktan sonra finans yöneticisinin, firma için optimal para tutarım belirlemesi gerekir. Yöneticiler optimum nakit seviyesini ya pratik, yani sayısal olmayan ve sadece tecrübelerine dayana usullerle ya da sayısal bir takım modellerle saptarlar. Bu çalışmada ele alman sayısal modeller sırasıyla Baumol Modeli, Miller-Orr Modeli ve Beranek Modeli1 dir. Tüm modeller tanıtıldıktan sonra aralarında bir karşılaştırma yapılarak, üstün ve zayıf yanlan ortaya konmuştur. Fonların mevduat hesaplarında tutulması bir firsat maliyeti yaratmaktadır. İşte nakit yönetimindeki önemli sorulardan biri fonların, değer kaybına uğramadan, ihtiyaç duyulduğu an paraya çevrilebilme olanağı bulunan, yani likiditesi yüksek, hangi menkul değerlere yatırılacağıdır. Hiç kuşkusuz, atıl fonların yatırılacağı menkul değerlerin sağlayacağı gelirin, menkul değer alımının ve yönetiminin gerektirdiği giderlerle, bu varlıkların saulamasındaki muhtemel gecikmelerin firma için doğuracağı kayıplan karşılaması şartına bağlıdır. Bu amaçla bazı karar verme kriterlerinin gözönüne alınması gerekir. Bunlar risk faktörü, menkul değerin pazarlanabilme özelliği ve vadesidir. Üç faktör incelendikten sonra kısa süreli yatırım araçlarının kısa bir tanıtımı yapılmaktadır. Ardından fonların para ve menkul değerler arasında dağılımının belirlenmesini gösteren bir örnek ele alınmaktadır. Çalışmanın uygulama bölümünde nakit yönetimi, Doğumak A.Ş. firmasının verilerinden yola çıkılarak ve firmanın uyguladığı yöntemler ele alınarak incelenmektedir.

Abstract:
Cash management Higher interest rates and changing economic climate in the 1980s have drawn closer attention to the performance and escalating costs of firms' current asset investments. In this study, cash and near-cash assets are analyzed. Cash pays no interest. Why, then, do sensible people hold it ? Why, for example, don't we take all our cash and invest it in interest-bearing securities ? The second chapter of the study gives the corresponding answer to this question; cash gives us more liquidity than securities which we can use to buy things. An overview of the cash management process and the reasons for holding cash are examined in this chapter. Business firms usually hold cash balances for three basic reasons : 1. transaction purposes, 2. precautionary reserves and 3. speculation. Transaction purposes; firms need daily cash balances (checking accounts) to conduct their ordinary business transactions. These balances are used to meet outflow requirements for operational or financial obligations and to serve as temporary depositories for cash inflows from sales customers. Precautionary reserves; most firms hold extra cash in order to handle unexpected problems or contingencies due to the uncertain pattern of cash inflows and outflows. The extent of such buffer reserves depends on the predictability of cash flows; the less predictable the cash flows, the more cash will be held. Precautionary balances also depend on how quickly a firm can borrow additional cash. If any cash balances are maintained for precautionary reasons, they are usually invested in near cash assets such as marketable securities because precautionary reserves are not part of the normal operations. Speculation; a firm's management may feel that some prices may soon change. These prices could be raw material prices, equipment prices, or even currency exchange rates. Managers desiring to profit from these expected price changes will delay purchases now and store up cash for use later when they expect prices to be lower. Most firms can be organizationally divided into three different activities along functional areas lines: marketing, production (or purchasing) and finance. Carrying out the marketing and production decisions involves substantial outlays of cash. As a result, an extremely important job for the financial manager is to anticipate the cash flow implications of these two activities and to anticipate the timing and magnitude of future cash flows in order to aid the internal planning of the firm and to maintain control over the firm's cash position. This task is accomplished through the preparation of a cash flow budget. A cash flow budget is a detailed estimated schedule of future cash inflows (receipts), outflows (expenditures) and cash balances at different points in time over awages, merchandise, overhead and so on and on how much funding and investment will be required. A cash flow budget is the result of a rather involved and time- consuming process because it represents a number of individual budgets prepared by the entire management team. The starting point is a forecast of expected sales by the marketing manager. Given this sales forecast, the production departmant then develops a budget that estimates the costs for meeting the projected sales figures and for providing an adequate level of inventory. Next, the financial manager is responsible for combining the sales, production and other expense information into a summary of the operating cash inflows and outflows. Finally this summary is combined with the projected financial cash flows, such as interest expenses, dividends and repayment of long term debt (which are usually known in advance). The end result of this process is the cash flow budget. Having developed the cash flow budget, the financial manager can use this pro forma statement in a variety of ways. The cash flow budget can shed light on several aspects of the firm's operations for perhaps a closer scrutiny by management. Any undesirable patterns of trends observed can be remedied, if necessary, by taking the appropriate action. An examination of te cash budget clearly indicates the seasonal nature of the firm's cash flow pattern. If a firm has a surplus, it should make plans to invest it in short term interest- bearing securities (marketable securities) and to use this surplus, it must make additional investment plans. A firm cannot pursue its objective of maximizing the wealth of the shareholders if its cash flow cannot sustain its operations, if the cash flows from operations (internally generated cash flows) are not adequate, management must make arrangements to generate cash flows from outside. However, a firm cannot continue indefinitely without positive operating cash flows. Negative operating cash flows for an extended period of time can spell disaster. Cash management decisions are based on forecasts of future cash inflows and outflows. As seen above the principal way to anticipate cash needs is through the cash budget. By analyzing the expected operating and financial cash receipts and disbursements in this budget, the financial manager is able to prearrenge short term financing to cover projected cash deficits or to fund short-term investments if exces cash is expected. Financial cash outflows such as fixed-rate interest payments and tax payments are very predictable. However, sales and expense forecasts are much more uncertain. It is this uncertainty that necessitates the development of a cash management program. Such a program must not only be responsible for the cash budget and its cash flow implications but must include a control system to continually gather and monitor the information on the firm's daily cash balances, cash receipts and disbursals. In addition, the firm's portfolio of marketable securities must be evaluated continually.The third chapter of this study deals with the cash management decisions areas which are; 1. The efficient collection and disbursement of operating cash, 2. The appropriate level of operating cash balances, 3. The investment of temporary excess cash in near-cash assets such as marketable securities. Management of cash receipts and disbursements: Ideally, a firm prefers to collect cash as soon as possible on its credit sales. In contrast, a firm prefers to delay payment on its purchases as long as possible without hurting its credit rating. This phase of cash management focuses on accelerating cash receipts and slowing cash disbursements where possible. Because time is money, sophisticated strategies have been devised to implement this objective. As a firm deposits customer's checks in its bank account and issues its own checks, its book balance keeps changing. The bank also records these transactions, but its balance may differ systematically from the company's book balance. This difference between the bank and book balances is called float. There are four types of float that must be managed : 1. Negative float, increases the amount of cash tied up in the collection cycle and earns a zero rate of return. Negative float, which is undesirable and should be minimized as much as possible, consists of mail float, processing float and clearing float. a. Mail float represents the time during which a customer's check is in the postal system. As long as the check is İn the mail, funds are not available for use. b. Processing float represents the time it takes for the firm to deposit the customer's check in its bank. An efficient firm will not let customers' checks sit in storage, but will attempt to present them for payment as soon as possible. c. Clearing float represents the time it takes for the deposited check to clear the banking system and become usable funds. A firm has no direct control over clearing float; however, a firm experiencing excessive clearing float may change to a more efficient bank. 2. Positive float allows the firm to maintain control of cash for a longer period of time, thus earning a larger return. The major positive float is disbursement float, which represents the time between a firm's payment of a creditor's bill and when the payment clears the firms checking account. Disbursement float reduces the firm's idle cash, thus, management should try to increase this type of float. Accelerating cash collections is an attempt to reduce the negative float associated with the time it takes from the mailing of a customer's check until it becomes usable funds to the firm. A number of strategies are designed to do just this. Decentralizing collections of accounts receivable: To reduce mail and processing float, many firms decentralize their collections operation by using a lockbox system, a local collection office and/or preauthorized check payments. Collections through couriers, reducing the number of banks or bank offices and using modern telecomunications (electronic funds transfer systems) like wire transfers and electronic depository transfer checks can be used to accelarate cash collections.Just as speeding collections helps convert accounts receivable into cash and reduces cash balances, slowing disbursements attempts to do the same thing. Within limits, a number of strategies can be utilized to control and slow down cash outflows. However, abusing the use of these strategies may irritate a firm's creditors to the point where its credit rating is jeopardized or its trade credit may be withdrawn. The place to begin is to establish a policy of paying accounts payable or accruals only when they are due. There is no benefit to paying sooner; in addition, the availibility of cash for other investment purposes is reduced. Large corporations that have multiple branches or divisions often have many checking accounts in different banks. This may seem justifiable to conduct local operations, but excess cash balances and a loss of disbursement control tend to occur. One way to eliminate these problems is to allow each operating entity to write checks on a special checking account that contains no funds. These accounts are all located at a central bank, so that at the end of each day, the negative balances created by the divisions' checks can be restored to zero by debiting a master account. Moreover, if the master account has a surplus of cash, it can be swept into an overnight investment. In equilibrium all assets in the same risk class are priced to give the same expected marginal benefit. The benefit from holding Treasury bills is the interest that we receive; the benefit from holding cash is that it gives us a convenient store of liquidity. In equilibrium the marginal value of this liquidity is equal to the marginal value of the interest on an equivalent investment in Treasury bills. Does this mean that it does not matter how much cash we hold ? Of course not. The marginal value of liquidity declines as we hold increasing amounts of cash. When we have only a small proportion of assets in cash, a little extra can be extremely useful; when we have a substantial holding, any additional liquidity is not worth much. Therefore, a financial manager wants to hold cash balances up to the point where the marginal value of the liquidity is equal to the value of the interest forgone. A company needs cash to satisfy one or more of the requirements for holding cash mentioned earlier. How does a manager decide on the optimum level of cash that the firm must maintain? One way to quantify these subjective considerations in determining the optimum cash balance is to use some practical methods. The other way is to use some mathematical methods: l.W. Baumol Model 2. Miller-Orr Model 3. Beranek Model In W. Baumol's model for calculating optimum cash balances the question is formulated as an inventory decision problem. When the cash is exhausted, the firm replenishes its liquidity by selling marketable securities, which are short-term investments that earn interest and are easily sold. In general, when interest rates are high, the firm will want to hold small average cash balances. On the other hand, if the firm uses up cash at a high rate or if there are high costs to selling securities, the firm wants to hold large average cash balances.Baumol's model works well as long as the firm is steadily using up its cash inventory. But that is not what usually happens. In some weeks the firm may collect some large unpaid bills and therefore receive a net inflow of cash. In other weeks it may pay its suppliers and so incur a net outflow of cash. Miller and Orr consider how the firm should manage its cash balance if it cannot predict day-to-day cash inflows and outflows. Their assumption is that the cash balance meanders unpredictably until it reaches an upper limit. At this point the firm buys enough securities to return the cash balance to a more normal level. Once again the cash balance is allowed to meander until this time it hits a lower limit. When it does, the firm sells enough securities to restore the balance to its normal level. Thus the rule is to allow the cash holding to wander freely until it hits an upper or lower limit. When this happens, the firm buys or sells securities to regain the desired balance. The Beranek model tries to find an optimum answer to the question, how much of current funds should be held in cash and how much of it should be invested in securities. To use this model the firm needs to know the probability distribution of the net cash inflows and the cost of a possible out of cash situation to the firm. Beranek assumes that the firm's cash inflows are continous and disbursements are in control of the firm and made in large amounts. According to Beranek's model the firm should continue investing its cash in securities until the revenue of the security reaches the level of cost of the deficit of cash. Cash in excess of requirements for transactions, pecautionary balances, and/or compensating-balance purposes is temporarily invested in marketable securities. Many types of temporary, near cash investments are available; thus the financial manager needs criteria for determining which ones best fit his needs. The three most important characteristics to consider are risk, marketebility and term to maturity. Money market instruments are short-term securities. They are usually securities with maturities of up to one year. These are Treasury bills, government bonds, zero coupon bonds, banker's acceptances, negotiable certificates of deposit, commercial paper, repurchase agreements and money market mutual funds. Treasury bills are debt obligations of the government used to finance fiscal deficits. They are issued with maturities of less than one year and are considered to be default free because they receive the full financial backing of the government. Zero coupon bonds pay no interest. The advantage to the buyer are the bond's noncallability and a guarantee of the yield on the bond. The holder need not be concerned about the reinvestment risk, since there are no coupons to be reinvested. However the holder is exposed to price risk, because the price of the bond will fluctuate with interest rate changes. Banker's acceptances are time drafts drawn on and accepted by a bank. Then- safety depends on that bank's financial strength. Negotiable certificates of deposits are large denomination time deposits issued by commercial banks. Yields on CDs are generally above the rates on T-bills.Commercial paper consists of short term unsecured promissory notes issued by large corporations and finance companies with high credit ratings. Low marketebility and higher default risk results in higher yields than on most other money market instruments. A repurchase agreement, or repo, is a negotiable arrangement (not a security) between a bank or securities dealer and an investor in which the investor acquires certain short-term securities (usually T-bills) with the understanding that the bank or dealer will repurchase these securities at a slightly higher price in a specified number of days. Their maturities are very short and are tailored to meet the investor's needs. A money market mutual fund is an alternative to purchase higher yielding marketable securities indirectly. These mutual funds pool the investment of many small investors and invest them in large denominated money market instruments. Shares much like common stock, are issued against this portfolio of securities. In the fourth and last chapter of this study Doğumak A.Ş. is examined from the point of view of cash flows and cash management. With the help of the expected balance sheet and the expected income statement, the expected cash budget of the firm is prepared. Strategies used by this firm to speed up cash collections and to slow down disbursements are discussed.