Kalkolitik ve Tunç çağlarında Göller bölgesindeki iklimsel değişiklikler ve bu değişikliklerin bölgedeki arkeolojik yerleşim sistemlerine etkisi
Climatic changes in the Lake district during Chalcolithic and Bronze ages and its effects on archaeological settlement systems
Yazar: ARMAN TEKİN
Danışman: YRD. DOÇ. DR. BÜLENT ARIKAN
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Avrasya Yerbilimleri Enstitüsü / İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Ana Bilim Dalı / Yer Sistem Bilimi Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2017
Konu: Arkeoloji = Archeology
Dizin: Arazi modelleme = Terrain modelling ; Arkeoloji = Archaeology ; Coğrafi bilgi sistemleri = Geographical information systems ; Erken Tunç Çağı = Early Bronze Age ; Geç Tunç Çağı = Late Bronze Age ; Holosen = Holocene ; Orta Tunç Çağı = Middle Bronze Age ; Zaman-mekan modellemesi = Spatio-temporal modelling ; Çevresel arkeoloji = Environmental archeology ; İnsan-çevre ilişkisi = Human-environment relationship

Özet:
Bu çalışmanın amacı, Kalkolitik ve Tunç çağlarında (~G.Ö.8000-3000/~M.Ö. 6000-1000) Göller Bölgesi'nde meydana gelen iklimsel değişiklikleri bir paleoiklim modeli yardımıyla modelleyerek önemli iklimsel parametrelerin (yıllık ortalama yağış ve sıcaklık gibi) gösterdiği değişimlerin derece ve önemini kantitatif yöntemlerle çalışmaktır. Bu değişimlerin bölgede yapılan arkeolojik yayınlardan oluşturulan arkeolojik yerleşim sistemlerine etkisini araştırmaktır.
Göller Bölgesi coğrafik ve kültürel açıdan bakıldığında Burdur, Isparta ve Antalya illeri ile temsil edilmektedir. Çalışma kapsamına Ege, Akdeniz ve İç Anadolu bölgeleri arasındaki ilişkileri anlamak adına Afyon ve Konya illeri de dâhil edilmiştir. Bu illerinden elde ettiğimiz iklimsel kayıtlar ve çalışma dönemini temsil eden 500'ü aşkın arkeolojik yerleşme kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışma kapsamında istatistiksel verilerin incelenmesi için R Studio kullanılmış, çalışılan bölgenin mekânsal verilerinin bilgisayar ortamında toplanması, coğrafi bilgi sistemine girilmesi, mekânsal analizlerin yapılması, görüntülenmesi ve uygun formatta çıktı alınabilmesi için ise açık kaynak kodlu GRASS CBS (Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri) kullanılmıştır. Yapılacak olan tüm analizlerin ve buna bağlı elde edilecek olan tüm verilerin, geçmişteki iklimsel değişiklilerin arkeolojik yerleşim sistemlerini ne derece etkilediğini anlamak için ise Makrofiziksel İklim Modeli (MİM) kullanılmıştır. 
Çalışmadan elde ettiğimiz ilk verilere göre, Kalkolitik Çağ'dan Erken Tunç Çağı sonuna kadar (~G.Ö. 8000-4000/~M.Ö. 6000-2000) arkeolojik yerleşmelerin sayısında artış görülmüştür. Bu süre içerisinde ise yaşayan Göller Bölgesi insanlarının yeryüzü şekilleri içerisinde düzlük alanlarda, suya yakın geçiş noktalarında (kanal) ve dağın bayır kısımlarında yaşamayı, zirve ve vadilere oranla daha fazla tercih etmişlerdir. Yağış ve sıcak verilerine bakıldığında ise, Geç Kalkolitik Çağ'dan Geç Tunç Çağı sonuna kadar (G.Ö. 5600-3000/M.Ö. 3600-1000) olan zaman diliminde yağışta ve sıcaklıkta azalmaların görüldüğü ve buna ek olarak her 2000 yıllık süreçte Göller Bölgesinde yerel ve bölgesel değişimlerin olduğu gözlenmiştir. Yine yağış ve sıcaklık verileri göz önünde bulundurulduğunda, 4.2 ka iklim olayının Göller Bölgesi için bölgesel bir kuraklığı işaret etmediği görülmektedir. Orta Holosen sürecindeki iklimsel değişikliklerin, bu dönemde yaşamış toplulukların sosyal, ekonomik ve siyasi sistemlerin değişmesinde payı olabileceği düşünülse bile, bu değişimin sadece yerel ölçekte gerçekleştiği ve küresel bir etkisi olamayacağını söylemek doğru olacaktır.

Abstract:
The aim of this study is to assess the scale and intensity of paleoclimatic changes in crucial climatic parameters (such as average annual precipitation and temperature) in the Lake District during the Chalcolithic and Bronze Ages (~G.Ö.8000-3000/~M.Ö. 6000-1000) through Macrophysical Climate Modeling method. These results are then used to explore the effects of these changes on archaeological settlement patterns, which have been reconstructed from published archaeological research in the region.
The first step was defining the area of research. Burdur, Isparta and Antalya were chosen to represent the Lake District both geographically and culturally. Afyon and Konya provinces were included in this research to provide points of comparison\ which would allow us to understand relations between the Aegan, Mediterranean, and Central Anatolia better. The, research history of the region reviewed archaeological literature about the study area. In this context, a total of 716 archaeological settlements were identified. 188 sites were in and in the Lake District and 528 archaeological settlements remained in Afyon and Konya provinces. Following the literature review, the Lake District region and Afyon and Konya provinces were compared in terms of material culture, which consisted of: the architecture, pottery, and social organization. 
The architectural evolution of the Lake District, Afyon, and Konya showed both similarities and differences both locally and regionally. During the Neolithic period, the communities built houses using the widely available stone and mudbrick. Towards the end of the Neolithic period, defensive structures emerged in architecture but the tandardized use of these structures became common in the Chalcolithic period. In the Early Bronze Age, megarons and apsidal (circular) structures appeared, which couldn't be found in Middle Bronze Age. The architecture suggested that social dynamics were becoming more complex, which might have resulted from the establishment of interregional relationships.
The pottery repertoire of the Lake District region, Afyon, and Konya settlements generally consisted of gray and shades of gray clay that also gave ideas about the degree of cooking. From the Neolithic period on, tones of gray, cream, buff, orange, brown, and red had been common. At the beginning of the ceramic technology, rough types were common but in time additional techniques of smoothing, burnishing, and lining emerged. In terms of ceramic types, S-profile and deep vessels with handles gradually evolved into many different forms, which also suggested diverse functions due to daily use and storage. This also affected the decorations on the ceramics. Bronze age ceramic production represented technological developments\ which were reflected in both quality and function of the final products. Gradually, human and animal motifs as well as specific religious phenomena were displayed. As a result, ceramics had a major role in illustrating the transformation of human societies in terms of both technological and socio-cultural development. 
As far as the social organization is concerned, societies managed to reach an organizational structure where  crafts, labor\ and other types of production were controlled.. Wide variety of social organization models were discussed for Anatolia. The collective manufacturing process continued and central authority possibly oversaw such production. In this research, one of the aims were to assess whether palaeoclimatic changes had an impact on social organization.
In this research, archaeological data were obtained from researchers' publications, climatic data were obtained from Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS).  Using these types of data, GRASS GIS, Macrophysical Climate Modelling (MCM) and statistical analyses software were used.. GRASS GIS was used to conduct spatial analyses.. Macrophysical Climate Model (MCM) was applied to model the past climatic changes in average annual precipitation and temperature and how these variables might have affected the archaeological settlement systems. R Studio and JMP softwares were used for statistical analyses. 
The results suggested that the precipitation values for inland show a more dramatic decrease than the coastal parts. However, in both coastal and inland, the trend of decrease in rainfall continued through time. The downward trend stopped and stabilized for inland with the Late Chalcolithic period, while this occured in coastal areas during the Middle Bronze Age. The variance values for inland showed sharp decrease until Middle Chalcolithic. From that time on, of variance values gradually declined until the end of the Late Bronze Age. The variance values for average annual precipitation in Early-Middle Holocene transition might have responded more severely when compared with the variance values of average annual emperature. Long-time drying trend was evident in the distribution of precipitation both in coastal and inland. Additionally, the variance for average annual precipitation showed a slight decline in coastal areas. In this context, The fact that there was a distinct difference in coastal and terrestrial areas, especially with low and high pressure factors affecting the country may be related to the orographic barrier role of the mountainous areas in the research area..
According to temperature values from MCM, its variance in coastal regions was varying widely. Variance values indicated an overall drop throughout the second half of the Early Holocene and rapidly increased following Middle Holocene Period. During this transition period, variance values showed significant and stable values (0.6º Celsius). Variance in the coastal parts represented a sharp decline during the transition from Middle Bronze Age and Late Bronze Age. However, the Early-Middle Holocene transition didn't bring significant change in variance values for precipitation. Variance values in the coastal areas showed a gradual increase following the Middle Holocene. This may be interpreted as a result of the onset of modern, drier climate in the research area with the second half of the Middle Holocene/.
When the average annual precipitation and temperature values are considered, it is clear that the temperature values decrease while the precipitation values increase across the research area during the 8.2k climate event, which is supposedly an arid phase in the Near East. The results suggest that this arid phase might not happened in the research area. Similarly, the results of MCM suggest a different climatic trend than aridity for 6.2 ka event,. Consequently, more research should be done to understand the regional paleoclimatic dynamics. Finally, the well-known 4.2 ka event, another dry spell, has been checked against the results of MCM. While the average annual temperature values do not show a significant change across the research area, the average annual rainfall values show differences for inland and coastal areas. The significant decrease for inland is not observed in the coastal areas. Based on these results, it is unlikely that 4.2 ka event had a regional pattern. 
The comparisons of the distribution of archaeological settlements between the Chalcolithic and Bronze Age periods revealed interesting patterns. Archaeological settlements in Konya and Afyon represent 76% of the total number of sites, while the Lake District sites represent 34% of the total (Fig. 22). This can be explained by the fact that more archaeological excavations and surveys have been carried out in these provinces than the Lake District. In the study area, 21% of sites corresponded to the Chalcolithic period and the frequency of sites increased 37% during the Early Bronze Age. By the Middle Bronze, the number of sites decreased by three times and this pattern continued in the Late Bronze Age (Figure 23).
These patterns suggest that the number of settlements increased from the Chalcolithic period to the Early Bronze Age, but a significant decrease in the frequency of sites started with the Middle Bronze Age. Almost 69% of the archeological settlements in the study area were small density sites such as scatters. There were also domestic clusters (18%) and farms (10%). Large-scale settlements such as villages and towns are rare (Fig. 24). Based on these results, communities that lived in the region might not have been fully settled, these groups might have led pastoralist lifeways. When the terrain types are considered, flatlands constitute the majority with 53%. The distribution of other terrain types are provided in Figure 25. When the area covered by each archeological settlement in the research area is calculated, it is clear that 86% of sites were smaller than 2.5 hectares. Settlements that were larger make up for 14% (Figure 26). When the altitude of archaeological settlements are evaluated it is clear that 74% of sites are located between 9000-1200 m above the sea level. (Figure 27). This pattern suggests that the communities that lived in the region preferred to remain within a certain elevation band. When the distance from settlements to the river is considered, it is clear that 47% of sites remained within 1000 m distance to the nearest spring or stream. The longest distance from settlement to the nearest water source was 6000 m (Figure 28). This reveals the significance of water for ancient communities of the region. According to the results of analysis of variance the size of archaeological settlements showed statistically significant variations (p <0.001) throughout the periods that have been studied (Figure 29). These results suggest that site size gradually increased in time even while the number of settlements decreased.
There was an increase in the number of archaeological settlements from the Late Chalcolithic period to the Early Bronze Age (ca. 8000-4000 cal. BP/ 6000-2000 B.C.), and during this period, the Lake District communities targeted flat lands, channels, and ridges rather than peaks and valleys. Considering the paleoclimate, average annual rainfall and temperature decreased from the Late Chalcolithic to the Late Bronze Age. Additionally, there were some local and regional changes in the Lake District almost at every 2000-year period. The results of MCM do not suggest the presence of regional drought events, such as 4.2 ka climate event in the Lake District. Based on these results, the climatic changes in the mid-Holocene period may be assessed for social, economic and political transformations only at local scale but current paleoclimateic pattern does not support global arguments.