Enflasyonun sistem dinamiği yöntemi ile incelenmesi
An Inflation study using system dynamics approach
Yazar: CAFER ERHAN BOZDAĞ
Danışman: PROF. DR. MEHMET HALUK ERKUT
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 1991
Konu: Ekonomi = Economics
Dizin: Enflasyon = Inflation ; Sistem dinamiği = System dynamics ; Sistem yaklaşımı = System approach

Özet:
ENFLASYONUN SİSTEM DİNAMİĞİ YÖNTEMİ İLE İNCELENMESİ Bu çalışmada, ulusal makro ekonomi sistemi bir sistem dinamiği modeli ile benzetilerek, enflasyon incelenmiştir. İkinci bölümde, enflasyonla ilgili makro ekonomik teoriler ve bu teorilerin gelişimi verilmiştir. Talep enflasyonunun doğuş nedenleri, ekonomik sistemin hangi değişkenlerinin nasıl olup da enflasyonu doğurduğu konusunda yapılmış büyük çalışmalar verilmiştir. üçüncü bölümde, genel sistemler yaklaşımı anlatılmıştır. Sistem tanımı, sistem yapısı, sistemlerin sınıflandırılması ve sistemlerin özellikleri verilmiştir. Yaşadığımız sosyal sistemin, bunun yanında insanların birlikte yasamaları sonucu oluşmuş geniş ekonomik düzenin dinamik bir sistem yapısı gösterdiği anlatılmıştır. Dinamik yapıların en önemli özelliği olan geri bil dirim çevrimleri üzerinde durulmuş, uydurulmuş bir sis tem olan ekonomi sisteminin dinamik dengesini, geri bildirim çevrimleri ile nasıl sağladığı gösterilmek istenmiş tir. Dördüncü bölümde, dinamik yapı gösteren sistemleri inceleme konusunda bir yaklaşım olan sistem dinamiği yaklaşımından bahsedilmiştir. Sistem dinamiğinin tanımı, amacı, yönetimde kullanımı, yapısı ve sistem dinamiği ile model kurulması ve çalıştırılması konularına değinilmiştir.

Abstract:
AN INFLATION STUDY USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH Inflation and its factors have been studied by the system dynamics model approach in this research. In the second chapter, the developments about the inflation have been examined. Various theories which were suggested about the inflation and thought and comments of the economists who did great studies about the inflation have been explained. Inflation is sustained increase in the general level of prices, measured by the Consumer Price Index. By contrast, a one-time jump in the level of prices, say of 10 percent, does not itself signify that the economy is in thereafter remain sustained suggest self -perpetuating cells. However, 1 percent a year, it is nearly an inflationary state if prices stabilised in the higher level. To be that the inflation will continue in a process, like cells dividing into more when the price level increases by, say, there is no great concern since imperceptible. Yet the level of prices is rising and by definition it is inflation. But when prices rise consistently by 5, 10, or 15 percent a year people became aware that the money units buys less. The expectation is created that it is going to buy even less in the future and the economy seems to be under siege. Inflation makes people nervous but is it necessarily a bad thing? Yes, if increasing prices causes the economy to wind down and stall in a deep recession, creating political and social chaos. This can be the effect of hyperinflation - runaway inflation. It can wipe out savings and seriously cramp new capital expenditures if it causes more resources to be devoted to speculation and less to production. Output and employment will fall. Speculators will try to profit by guessing where changes in relative price differences will occur most rapidly, putting more financial resources into existing goods whose prices they believe will inflate instead of creating new goods. With ordinary inflation, however, the problem is not so much that of a recession but of income redistrubition VIeffects. There are gainers and lossers. During an inflation, the nation as a whole does not experience a loss in total income. A higher price to one becomes a higher income to another. The problem is that the income redistrubition is uneven. The pie does not get smaller, it gets cut up in different sizes. The essential point is that inflation causes real income transfers because some groups anticipate the inflation and take corrective action to negate inflation's adverse effect. Those who do not correctly anticipate inflation will lose out. Inflation is characterized by aggregate demand outpacing aggregate supply. Because of limitations in adjusting both the size of the plant and the amount of machinery in the short run and because it is harder to hire more skilled workers as the economy approaches full employment level, the additional output must be squeezed from the economy's existing capacity, so the price level will rise. All economists recognize that if the Federal Reserve policies lead to the creation of too money, particularly if the economy is at or near full employment, inflation will be the direct result. The majority also recognize the upward effect on prices of cost-push, demand pull, and structural influences aside from the purely monetary sources of inflation. The monetarist argue that inflation - by which is meant a substained increase in prices - is primarely caused by too much money creation and that other causes inflation are of minor importance. They also contend that obtrusive interference by the government creates serious disincentive effects in both the labor and product markets. Thus they argue that too much aggregate demand from excessive money creation and obstacles to aggregate supply from government interference will combine to rise the inflation rate. One of the goals of macroeconomic policy is price stability. Price stability is important in an economy which uses money as a store of value. Since prices drift upward more easily than downward. Inflation is a primary target of a remedial government policy. Inflation has serious distributive consequences. It penalizes those whose incomes are fixed in money terms. Workers whose wage contracts contain cost-of-living viiescalator clauses will receieve money wage increases when prices rise, but this is not true of individuals relying on pensions and annuities. Inflation hurts creditors and reduces the real obligations of debtors. Aside from its impact on income distribution, the primary concern is that inflation not become so rampant that the currency becomes unacceptable. If prices are rising and consumers and investors expect the trend to continue, they may be encouraged to spend immediately, exchanging money for goods, driving prices up still further. Such an occurence would lead to breakdown or panic in financial markets which would have a deleterious effect on investment the basis for growth. it would also have a disastrous impaction the balance of international payments and the international acceptability of the currency. in the third chapter, the general system theory is discussed. A system is an assembly of parts where 1.the parts or components are connected together in an organized way 2.the parts or components are affected by being in the system and are changed by leaving it 3.the assembly does something 4.the assembly has been identified by a person as being of special interest The general systems theory provides the broad macro view from which we may look at all types of systems. Modern economics has increasingly used the systems approach. Equilibrium concepts are fundamental in economic thought, and very basis of this type of analysis is consideration of subsystems of a total system. Economics is moving away from static eguilibrium models appropriate to closed systems toward dynamic equilibrium considerations appropriate to open system. Considered from the point of view of the input-output scheme any national economy can be described as a system of mutually interrelated endustries or -if one prefers a more abstract term- interdependent economic activities. The inter- relation actually consists in the more or less steady streams of goods and services which directly or indirectly link all the sectors of the economy to each other. The Macroeconomic inflation Model in this research constitute three parts: Government Sector, Banking or Financial Sector and Production and Investment Sector. viiiThe Macroeconomic Model generates behavior as observed in an actual economy from the interactions of these parts and decision-making policies. In developing Macroeconomic Model there are a number of guidelines that are important to understanding economic system. Disequilibrium The Important questions about economic behavior relate to change. How did the economy get where is it? What path would be followed as a future response to a present policy change? In modeling an economy, one will best start with an approach that gives full scope for disequilibrium behavior. By taking the model-simulation approach, there is no restraint on disequilibrium behavior. The model can generate whatever behavior is implied by its structure and the decision-making policies within it. Simulation Modeling By using a simulation model, one is freed from many restraints that are imposed by statistical analysis and by equations that are to be solved mathematically. Simulation modeling is a practical trial-and-error approach. It does not possess the elegance of more analytical methods, but it allows far greater scope for representing the actual structure of an economic system and for discovering the causes of behavior that are observed in the real world. Complexity There are good arguments for both complexity and simplicity in modeling. Simpler models are easier to explain and to understand. More complex models come closer to the structure of real systems and are less subject to questions as to whether or not important sources of behavior have been omitted. Many aspects of real-life behavior arise directly from complexity. The cause of frustration in system lies in the way multiple feedback loops. ixThe Macroeconomic Model generates behavior as observed in an actual economy from the interactions of these parts and decision-making policies. In developing Macroeconomic Model there are a number of guidelines that are important to understanding economic system. Disequilibrium The Important questions about economic behavior relate to change. How did the economy get where is it? What path would be followed as a future response to a present policy change? In modeling an economy, one will best start with an approach that gives full scope for disequilibrium behavior. By taking the model-simulation approach, there is no restraint on disequilibrium behavior. The model can generate whatever behavior is implied by its structure and the decision-making policies within it. Simulation Modeling By using a simulation model, one is freed from many restraints that are imposed by statistical analysis and by equations that are to be solved mathematically. Simulation modeling is a practical trial-and-error approach. It does not possess the elegance of more analytical methods, but it allows far greater scope for representing the actual structure of an economic system and for discovering the causes of behavior that are observed in the real world. Complexity There are good arguments for both complexity and simplicity in modeling. Simpler models are easier to explain and to understand. More complex models come closer to the structure of real systems and are less subject to questions as to whether or not important sources of behavior have been omitted. Many aspects of real-life behavior arise directly from complexity. The cause of frustration in system lies in the way multiple feedback loops. ix