Türkiye Gün İçi Piyasası'nın Avrupa ile karşılaştırmalı analizi
Comparative analysis of Turkiye's Intraday Market with Europe
Yazar: ZEYNEP ÖZMEN
Danışman: PROF. DR. SERMİN ONAYGİL
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü / Enerji Bilim ve Teknoloji Ana Bilim Dalı / Enerji Bilim ve Teknoloji Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2024
Konu: Enerji = Energy

Özet:
Bu tezde, detaylı literatür incelemesiyle Türkiye Gün İçi Piyasası, Avrupa ile kıyaslanmış, yarı yapılandırılmış uzman görüşmeleri sonuçlarıyla bir SWOT analizi yapılmıştır. Türkiye'de ilk olarak 2015 yılında kurulan ve işletilmeye başlanan Gün İçi Piyasası (GİP) 1.0'dan, 31 Aralık 2023'te GİP 2.0'a geçiş yapılmıştır. Ancak bu geçiş sürecine dair Türkiye'de literatürde yeterli çalışma bulunmamaktadır. Dolayısıyla, Türkiye'nin Gün İçi Piyasası hakkında yapılan bu çalışma, piyasadaki gelişim sürecine dair önemli bir boşluğu doldurmaktadır. Aynı zamanda bu çalışma, Türkiye'nin gelecekteki Gün İçi Piyasası (GİP 3.0) yapısına da ışık tutmaktadır.
Gün İçi Piyasası, enerji ticaretinin gün içerisinde arz ve talebe göre dinamik bir şekilde gerçekleştiği bir sistemdir. Türkiye'nin Gün İçi Piyasası, özellikle yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının artan kullanımını desteklemek, arz ve talep dengesizliğini gidermek amacıyla kurulmuştur. GİP 1.0'dan GİP 2.0'a geçiş, piyasa katılımcılarının daha hızlı ve etkin işlem yapmalarına olanak sağlayacak şekilde geliştirilmiştir. GİP 2.0, kullanıcı dostu arayüzü ve işlem hızı gibi özelliklerle ön plana çıkmaktadır.
Avrupa'da ise, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool, OMIE ve GME gibi önde gelen Gün İçi Piyasaları, uzun yıllardır etkin bir şekilde işletilmektedir. Avrupa piyasaları, yüksek yenilenebilir enerji oranlarıyla entegre yapılar sunarak, elektrik ticaretinin sınır ötesi bir çerçevede yapılmasını mümkün kılmaktadır. Bu sistemler, Türkiye'deki piyasa ile kıyaslandığında, daha fazla katılımcıya sahip ve teknolojik altyapı açısından daha gelişmiş durumdadır. Avrupa Gün İçi Piyasaları, özellikle sınır ötesi ticaret, otomasyon ve çeşitli farklı ürünler açısından Türkiye'ye kıyasla ileri bir seviyededir.
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'nin Gün İçi Piyasası ile Avrupa piyasaları arasındaki farklar detaylı bir şekilde incelenmiştir. Türkiye'deki piyasa ise gelişim potansiyeli taşımaktadır. Bu bağlamda, Avrupa'daki piyasa yapılarının Türkiye'ye uyarlanabilir yönleri araştırılmıştır. Özellikle sınır ötesi ticaret olanaklarının artırılması, yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının entegrasyonu ve piyasa ürün ve hizmetlerinin çeşitlendirilmesi, Türkiye'nin Gün İçi Piyasasının gelecekteki yapısı için önemli gelişim alanları olarak öne çıkmaktadır.
Tezde kullanılan metodoloji, detaylı literatür incelemesi ve yarı yapılandırılmış uzman görüşmelerine dayanmaktadır. Enerji sektöründen toplam 23 uzmanla yapılan bu görüşmeler, Türkiye'nin Gün İçi Piyasasının mevcut durumu ve Avrupa'daki piyasa modelleriyle karşılaştırılması konusunda önemli bilgiler sunmuştur. Bu görüşmeler sonucunda, Türkiye Gün İçi Piyasasının SWOT analizi yapılmıştır.
Sonuç olarak, Türkiye'nin Gün İçi Elektrik Piyasası, GİP 2.0 ile önemli bir gelişim göstermiştir, ancak Avrupa piyasalarıyla rekabet edebilmesi için daha fazla iyileştirme gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye Gün İçi Piyasasının Avrupa'daki örneklerle karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz edilmesi, Türkiye'deki piyasanın gelişimi için kayda değer öneriler sunulmasını sağlamıştır. 
Türkiye'nin Gün İçi Piyasasının gelecekteki yapısının, ürün çeşidinin az olması, ihale ve gerçek zamanlı veri eksikliği, piyasa katılımcılarının olası manipülatif işlemlerinin kontrolündeki zayıflık, işlemlerin ancak fiziksel teslimat saatinden bir saat kalana kadar yapılabilmesi, likidite azlığı ve piyasanın geç açılması gibi belirli noktalarda gelişmeye açık yönleri vardır. Bununla birlikte, mevcut uygulama güvenli bir ticaret ortamı sağlamaya çalışmakta ve jeopolitik konumu nedeniyle, enerji ticaretinde bölgesel bir merkez olma ve piyasanın gelişim olanağına altyapı oluşturmaktadır. Tez çalışmasında zayıflıkların güçlendirilmesi ve tehditlerin ortadan kaldırılması için öneriler geliştirilmiştir. Tezin Türkiye'nin enerji piyasasının gelişimine yönelik katkı sağlayarak, hem akademik literatür, hem de piyasa düzenleyicileri ve katılımcılar açısından yol gösterici nitelikte olabileceği düşünülmektedir.

Abstract:
This thesis offers a thorough comparative research of Türkiye's Intraday Market and the foremost intraday marketplaces in Europe. The analysis is based on comprehensive literature research and is reinforced by a SWOT analysis derived from expert comments gathered through semi-structured interviews with energy sector specialists. Türkiye's Intraday Market (GIP) was initially launched in 2015 as GIP 1.0, and on December 31, 2023, it moved to GIP 2.0. This study seeks to fill the gap in the literature by examining Türkiye's Intraday Market evolution and providing insights into the prospective structure of GIP 3.0, owing to the insufficient academic research on this transition.
The Intraday Market is a venue for dynamic electricity trading, allowing players to modify their supply and demand positions in reaction to real-time swings throughout the day. The Intraday Market in Türkiye was established primarily to enhance the integration of renewable energy sources, support energy supply security, and sustain system equilibrium. The shift to GIP 2.0 has resulted in substantial enhancements in transaction speed, user interface, and data analysis, improving market players' responsiveness to market conditions. These achievements have positioned Türkiye's market for future growth, yet essential areas still require enhancement to compete with the top European markets.
The Intraday Market is essential in contemporary electrical networks, facilitating real-time energy trading in response to variations in supply and demand. These markets are crucial for sustaining grid equilibrium, especially in nations with significant proportions of renewable energy. Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are inconsistent and erratic, posing difficulties sustaining a reliable energy supply. Intraday markets offer the necessary flexibility to manage these swings by enabling market participants such as power generators, suppliers, and traders to purchase and sell electricity near the consumption time. This dynamic trading guarantees supply consistently aligns with demand, averting shortages or surpluses that could disrupt the grid's stability.
The creation of the Intraday Market in Türkiye was a component of a comprehensive effort to upgrade the national power market and incorporate renewable energy sources. Since its introduction in 2015 with GIP 1.0, the market has facilitated more trading flexibility and offered a platform for real-time modifications in electricity trading. As the proportion of renewables in Türkiye's energy mix has increased, the demand for a more sophisticated market platform has also risen. This resulted in implementing GIP 2.0, which provides expedited transaction speeds, enhanced market accessibility, and increased support for real-time data analysis.
The shift from GIP 1.0 to GIP 2.0 in Türkiye, represented a pivotal advancement in the evolution of Türkiye's power sector. GIP 1.0, although operational, exhibited numerous constraints, especially regarding transaction velocity, interface user-friendliness, and the diversity of market offerings accessible. These constraints became increasingly evident as the market developed, and incorporating renewable energy sources introduced heightened unpredictability in electricity supply and demand. The escalating complexity of the energy market necessitated a more sophisticated system capable of managing the heightened trading volume and offering greater flexibility for players.
GIP 2.0 was implemented to tackle these difficulties. The new platform provides a more efficient user interface, facilitating participant access and navigation within the market. Moreover, it substantially enhances transaction velocities, enabling participants to react to market situations in almost real-time. This is especially crucial for renewable energy producers, who frequently must modify their locations in response to abrupt fluctuations in weather conditions that impact their energy generation. The improved data analysis functionalities of GIP 2.0 equip players with superior tools for making educated trading decisions, enabling them to refine their strategies based on real-time market data.
Notwithstanding these enhancements, there remain sectors where Türkiye's Intraday Market could be further advanced. Although GIP 2.0 has enhanced transaction speed and usability, the variety of market products is still restricted compared to European marketplaces. Expanding market product offerings would furnish participants with additional options for managing their energy portfolios and enhancing market liquidity.
The European Intraday Markets, including EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool, OMIE, and GME, rank among the most sophisticated globally. These markets have functioned for decades and have established advanced platforms facilitating seamless cross-border electricity trade. Cross-border trading is a distinguishing characteristic that differentiates European markets from Türkiye's market. In Europe, participants are permitted to trade electricity across national boundaries, facilitating a more efficient utilization of energy resources and enhanced integration of renewable energy throughout the continent. This is especially crucial in an area where countries own disparate renewable energy capacities, as cross-border trading facilitates resource sharing to equilibrate supply and demand across borders.
In contrast, Türkiye's Intraday Market remains in its nascent phase of growth. Despite substantial advancements in implementing GIP 2.0, it is deficient in cross-border trade functionalities, characteristic of European markets. Establishing cross-border trading methods will enable Türkiye to further its integration with the regional energy market, thereby stabilizing prices and augmenting market liquidity. Moreover, European markets provide a broader array of trading instruments, encompassing hourly, half-hourly, and quarter-hourly contracts. This degree of product diversity affords players greater flexibility in managing their energy situations, enabling them to customize their tactics to the particular requirements of their operations.
The Türkiye's Intraday Market presently provides a more restricted assortment of products. Expanding product orders would boost market liquidity and render the market more appealing to a broader array of investors, both domestic and international. By offering participants additional trading choices, Türkiye could enhance market participation and stimulate increased competition, resulting in more effective pricing and a more dynamic market landscape.
A major difficulty confronting contemporary electricity markets is the integration of renewable energy sources. Renewable sources such as wind and solar are intermittent, indicating that their output can vary considerably based on weather conditions. This poses issues for sustaining a stable energy supply, as abrupt fluctuations in output might result in discrepancies between supply and demand. In reaction to this problem, European Intraday Markets have established sophisticated systems for incorporating renewables, encompassing real-time data analysis and forecasting tools that assist participants in anticipating supply fluctuations and adjusting their positions accordingly.
Türkiye's Intraday Market has advanced in integrating renewable energy sources; however, further enhancement is necessary. The shift to GIP 2.0 has provided enhanced capabilities for data analysis; however, additional investment in technology is necessary to comprehensively facilitate the integration of renewable energy. Türkiye would particularly benefit from the advancement of sophisticated forecasting techniques that offer participants more precise projections of renewable energy production. This would enable market participants to make more informed trading decisions and assist in preserving grid stability amid the growing renewable energy potential.
Moreover, increased investment in automation technology would facilitate the optimization of the trading process and diminish the necessity for manual intervention. European Intraday Markets have advanced considerably in automating the trading process, enabling participants to execute trades swiftly and effectively based on real-time data. By implementing analogous technology, Türkiye could enhance the efficacy of its market operations and mitigate the risk of imbalances resulting from delays in decision-making.
Despite significant advancements in Türkiye's Intraday Market with GIP 2.0, numerous sectors necessitate additional enhancement to align with European norms. A vital area for enhancement is the augmentation of cross-border trading capacities. Cross-border trade would enable Türkiye to interact more closely with regional markets, promoting the exchange of energy resources and improving market liquidity. This would also contribute to price stabilization by enabling Türkiye to get surplus energy from neighbouring nations during periods of high demand and to export excess energy when domestic supply surpasses need.
A crucial domain for advancement is the diversity of market offerings. Broadening the assortment of goods offered in the Intraday Market would afford participants greater options in managing their energy portfolios and enhance market liquidity. By providing products with reduced contract durations, such as half-hourly or quarter-hourly contracts, Türkiye could furnish players with enhanced options for altering their positions in accordance with real-time market conditions.
Ongoing investment in technology and automation is crucial for the future advancement of Türkiye's Intraday Market. Improving the market's data analysis capabilities and implementing advanced forecasting tools will enable participants to make more educated decisions and assist in maintaining grid stability amid rising renewable energy capacity. Furthermore, automating the trading process would decrease the risk of human mistakes and enhance the efficiency of market operations, assuring rapid responsiveness to fluctuations in supply and demand.
In conclusion, Türkiye's Intraday Market has advanced considerably with implementing GIP 2.0; nonetheless, additional enhancements are required to align it with European Intraday Market norms. In this study, the comparative analysis of Türkiye's Intraday Market with examples from the European Intraday Market has provided significant recommendations for the development of the market in Türkiye. The future structure of Türkiye's Intraday Market has areas for improvement in certain aspects, such as the limited variety of products, the absence of auctions and lack of real-time data, insufficient control over manipulative transactions by market participants, execution of transactions only one hour before physical delivery, low liquidity, and late opening. However, it strives to provide a secure trading environment and, due to its geopolitical position, has the potential to become a regional hub for energy trading and can seize development opportunities with the market's advanced technological infrastructure. To strengthen weaknesses and eliminate threats, this thesis includes recommendations. This thesis provides a significant contribution to the development of Türkiye's Intraday Market, serving as a guiding study for both the academic literature and market regulators and participants.