Gemi değerleme sürecinde kullanılan faktörlerin Aralık Tip-2 Bulanık AHP yöntemi ile ağırlıklandırılması
Evaluation of the factors used in the ship valuation process with Interval Type-2 Fuzzy AHP method
Yazar: HASAN BURAK AÇIN
Danışman: DOÇ. DR. KADİR ÇİÇEK
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü / Deniz Ulaştırma Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı / Deniz Ulaştırma İşletme Mühendisliği Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2024
Konu: Denizcilik = Marine

Özet:
Dünyamızda siyasi, ekonomik ve ticari gelişmelere paralel olarak küresel yük
taşımacılığında deniz yolu taşımacılığının önemi her geçen gün daha da artmaktadır.
Öyle ki deniz yolu taşımacılığında dünya ticaret filosunun büyüklüğü 2.166.510
milyar DWT'a ulaşmış bulunmaktadır. Küresel yük taşımacılığını etkileyen
dinamiklerin yanı sıra, teknolojik gelişmeler, değişen ekonomik koşullar ve çevresel
duyarlılık talebi de denizyolu taşımacılığını yapısal değişikliklere zorlamaktadır. Bu
durum gemi tasarımlarında ve gemi üzerine donatılan makine ve sistemlerde
tasarımsal ve teknolojik değişimler beraberinde getirmektedir. Dolayısı ile, farklı tip,
tasarım, makine ve sisteme sahip gemilerin satın alım süreçlerinde ortaya çıkan gemi
değerleme probleminin sağlıklı bir şekilde yapılabilmesi gemi sahipleri açısından
önem arz eden bir konu haline gelmiş bulunmaktadır. Gemi değerleme, denizcilik
endüstrisinin önemli bir unsuru olan gemi varlıklarının ekonomik değerlerini belirleme
ve anlama amacı taşıyan kritik bir süreçtir. Denizcilik endüstrisinin karmaşıklığı ve
sürekli değişen doğası nedeniyle, gemi değerleme süreci birçok faktörün dikkate
alınmasını gerektirir. Bu faktörler gemilerin teknik özelliklerinden ekonomik koşullara
kadar uzanmakta olup, değerlemeyi etkileyen önemli değişkenleri kapsamaktadır. Bu
endüstri içerisinde talebe dayalı olarak çeşitli gemi türleri ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu tez ,
gemi değerleme sürecindeki belirsizlikleri azaltmak ve değerlendirme sürecini daha
sağlam ve ölçülebilir hale getirmek amacıyla bu yöntemin kullanılabilirliğini
göstermeyi amaçlamaktadır. Özetle, gemi değerleme sürecinde faktörlerin
değerlendirilmesinde Aralık Tip-2 Bulanık AHP yönteminin pratik uygulanabilirliğini
ve etkinliğini araştırmakla kalmayıp gemi değerlemesi alanındaki uzmanlara,
denizcilik endüstrisindeki karar alıcılarına ve araştırmacılara, daha etkili ve güvenilir
gemi değerleme süreçleri geliştirmelerine yardımcı olacak önemli bir araç sunmayı
amaçlamaktadır.Bu çalışma kapsamında gemi değerleme probleminin çözümüne katkı
sağlamak amacı ile gemi değerleme faktörleri aralık tip-2 bulanık AHP yöntemi ile
incelenerek, ağırlıklandırılmış ve önceliklendirilmiştir. Uzman görüşlerini entegre
ederek ve değerlendirmelerdeki belirsizlikleri ele alarak, bu yöntem gemi değerleme
sürecinin karmaşık ve çok yönlü doğasını daha kapsamlı bir şekilde anlamamızı sağlar.
Yapılan analiz ve değerlendirme neticesinde, gemi değerleme sürecinde etkin rol
oynayan faktörler belirlenmiş ve ilgili problemin çözümüne katkı sağlayabilecek
sonuçlar elde edilmiştir.

Abstract:
In parallel with the political, economic and commercial developments in our world,
the importance of maritime transportation in global freight transportation is increasing
day by day. So much so that the size of the world trade fleet in maritime transport has
reached 2,199,107 billion DWT. In addition to the dynamics affecting global freight
transportation, technological developments, changing economic conditions and the
demand for environmental sensitivity are forcing structural changes in maritime
transport. This situation brings about design and technological changes in ship designs
and the machines and systems equipped on the ship. Therefore, it has become an
important issue for ship owners to make the ship valuation problem that arises in the
purchase processes of ships with different types, designs, machinery and systems in a
healthy way. Ship valuation is a critical process aimed at determining and
understanding the economic values of ship assets, which are a significant element of
the maritime industry. Due to the complexity and constantly changing nature of the
maritime industry, the ship valuation process requires consideration of numerous
factors. These factors range from the technical specifications of ships to economic
conditions and encompass important variables that affect valuation. Within this
industry, various types of ships have emerged based on demand.
Second-hand ship valuation is a significant subject within the maritime industry. The
second-hand ship market holds great importance for shipowners, investors, and
maritime sector experts. However, there are certain deficiencies in the literature
regarding second-hand ship valuation.
Firstly, there is limited detailed examination in the literature regarding the methods
and techniques used in the process of second-hand ship valuation. Given various
valuation approaches, market trends, factors such as ship type, age, and operational
conditions, there is a need for more studies in this field.
Secondly, there are deficiencies in identifying and evaluating the parameters that need
to be considered in the process of second-hand ship valuation. Among these
parameters are factors such as the impact of the ship's age, its technical specifications,
market demand, and economic fluctuations in the maritime industry. However, there
is insufficient detailed analysis in the literature regarding the effects of these factors
on second-hand ship valuation and how these factors should be assessed.
Thirdly, there are shortcomings in the accuracy and reliability of the data used in the
process of second-hand ship valuation. Limited accessibility to real-time ship market
data can affect the accuracy of the valuation process. Further research and
identification of reliable data sources in this regard are essential.
In conclusion, the deficiencies in the literature on second-hand ship valuation
necessitate more comprehensive and in-depth research in this field. The ship valuation
process requires an analysis of a series of factors, and weighting these factors is a
critical step to obtain accurate results. Among these factors, there are numerous
variables based on the ship's age, size, technical condition, market conditions, and
many other features. Weighting the factors is important to accurately calculate the
impact of each factor on the evaluation. Once the factors in ship valuation are
identified, weighting methods are employed to determine the order of importance of
these factors. Weighting is the process of assigning weights to the factors while
determining their impact on the ship's value. These weights signify the contribution of
each factor to the ship's value. The complexity of the second-hand ship market and the
multitude of variables that need consideration in the valuation process highlight the
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significance of research in this area. More extensive studies conducted in this domain
could contribute to the development of more accurate and reliable valuation methods
for stakeholders in the maritime industry.
AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), complex multi-criteria decision-making method
used in decision-making processes. Interval Type-2 Fuzzy AHP expands this process
by allowing the handling of fuzzy sets in a more complex and flexible structure. The
steps to be applied in this approach begin with the selection of the method to be applied
in ship valuation. The second step continues with the determination of criteria, and
these criteria are numerically ranked according to the comparison scale. Comparison
matrices are created, and the Interval Type-2 Fuzzy AHP method is utilized. Following
this step, the determination of the most effective criteria is completed with the
calculated fuzzy weights.
The limited research in the literature related to second-hand ship valuation necessitates
more in-depth and comprehensive studies in this field. The complexity of the secondhand
ship market and the numerous variables to be considered in the valuation process
emphasize the importance of research in this area. More extensive studies in this field
could contribute to the development of more accurate and reliable valuation methods
for stakeholders in the maritime industry. The ship valuation process should be
carefully managed, especially when considering such challenges. It is a field that
requires expertise, and the participation of experienced professionals is important to
ensure accurate and reliable valuation.
Determining an expert team in ship valuation studies is a critical step for an accurate
and reliable valuation process. Selecting an expert team for ship valuation involves
identifying professionals specialized in maritime matters, competent in their field,
holding relevant certifications, having experience in independent valuation processes,
staying up-to-date with current market conditions, regulations, and technological
developments, and having sufficient references. The correct identification of an expert
team is considered to contribute to the completion of the ship valuation process reliably
and objectively.
The ship valuation process requires the analysis of a series of factors, and the
weighting of these factors is a critical step to obtain accurate results. Among these
factors, there are numerous variables based on the ship's age, size, technical condition,
market conditions, and many other features. Weighting these factors is important to
accurately calculate the impact of each factor on the valuation. Once the factors in ship
valuation are identified, weighting methods are employed to determine the order of
importance of these factors. This process involves assigning weights to the factors,
thereby delineating their respective contributions to the overall value of the ship.
After identifying the factors in ship valuation, weighting methods are used to
determine the order of importance of these factors. This process involves assigning
weights to the factors, representing the contribution of each factor to the ship's value.
The Interval Type-2 Fuzzy AHP method will be used as the weighting method in ship
valuation. This method allows for the subjective evaluation of different factors'
importance and determines their weights while evaluating the significance of various
factors.
This thesis aims to provide a significant tool by applying the Interval Type-2 Fuzzy
AHP method to make the ship valuation process more precise and yield more accurate
results. It aims to assist experts in the field of ship valuation, decision-makers in the
maritime industry, and researchers in developing more effective and reliable ship
valuation processes.
Within the scope of this study, in order to contribute to the solution of the ship
valuation problem, ship valuation factors were examined, weighted and prioritized by
the interval type-2 fuzzy AHP method. the Interval Type-2 Fuzzy AHP method offers
a structured and systematic approach to evaluate ship valuation factors while
accounting for uncertainties and imprecise information. By integrating expert
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judgments and handling vagueness in assessments, this method provides a more
comprehensive understanding of the complex and multifaceted nature of ship
valuation. As a result of the analysis and evaluation, the factors that play an active role
in the ship valuation process were determined and results that could contribute to the
solution of the relevant problem were obtained.