Çin demir cevheri ithalatının ve demir cevheri fiyatlarının dünya gsyih üzerindeki etkisinin belirlenmesi
Determining the effects of chinese iron ore import and iron ore prices on world gdp
Yazar: AHMET ÇAĞRI KESİK
Danışman: DOÇ. DR. LEVENT KIRVAL
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Deniz Ulaştırma Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı / Deniz Ulaştırma Mühendisliği Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2020
Konu: Denizcilik = Marine

Özet:
Dünyanın önemli ticaret aktörlerinden biri olan Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti dünyanın en büyük ihracatçısı ve dünyanın en büyük ikinci ithalatçısı konumundadır. Çin kapalı bir ekonomi politikasından kademeli olarak bir dönüşüm geçirerek serbest ticaret ekonomisine geçmiş ve başarılı bir şekilde serbest piyasa koşullarına uyum sağlamıştır. 90'ların başında gerçekleştirmiş olduğu yapısal reformlar ile ekonomik değişim süreci geçirmiş ve bu reformlar sayesinde dünyanın üretim ve ihracat üssü olmuştur. Bu sebeple "dünyanın fabrikası" olarak ifade edilmeye başlanmıştır. Bu ifade kuşkusuz Çin'in üretime dayalı bir ekonomi politikası yürütmesi sebebiyle kullanılmaktadır. Başarılı bir şekilde uyguladığı ekonomi politikası sayesinde büyümede ivme kazanarak ekonomik kalkınma düzeyini artırmıştır. Bunun yanında elde etmiş olduğu yüksek büyüme oranı ve yüksek sermaye birikimi bağlamında dünya ekonomisinde de özel bir yer edinmiştir. Böylece dünyanın en büyük üreticilerinden biri haline gelerek küresel anlamda dünya ticareti içerisindeki önemini artırmıştır.
Çin tüm dünya pazarına ürün satması sebebiyle dünya ekonomisinden doğrudan etkilendiği gibi dünya ekonomisini de etkilemektedir. Bu etkinin oluşmasında etkili olan argümanlarından biri de hammadde olarak kullanılan demir cevheridir. Dünyanın çelik üretiminin son yıllarda sürekli artış göstermesi, doğal olarak demir cevheri talebini de artırmıştır. Çin yıllardır demir cevheri ithal eden bir ülkedir. Bu açıdan gelişen demir cevheri piyasası Çin ekonomisi yanında küresel ekonomi açısından da oldukça önemlidir. Çin'in ithal demir cevheri piyasasının küresel anlamda taşıdığı önemden dolayı demir cevherinin etkisinin tespit edilebilmesi önem taşımaktadır. Bu kapsamda bu çalışmanın amacı Çin'in demir cevheri ithalatının ve demir cevheri fiyatının global anlamda dünya GSYİH değeri ile Çin GSYİH değeri üzerindeki etki düzeyini tespit etmek ve demir cevherinin Çin açısından önemini ortaya koymaktır.
Bu çalışmada Çin'in demir cevheri ithalatının ve demir cevheri fiyatının dünya GSYİH değeri ve Çin GSYİH değeri üzerindeki etki düzeyleri regresyon analizi ile tespit edilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda Çin GSYİH değeri üzerinde demir cevheri ithalatının anlamlı bir etkisi varken demir cevheri fiyatının anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca demir cevheri fiyatının ve Çin demir cevheri ithalat miktarının dünya GSYİH değeri üzerinde pozitif bir etkisinin olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Abstract:
The People's Republic of China is one of the world's major trading actors. China is the world's largest exporter and the world's second-largest importer. China has gradually transformed from a closed economy policy to a free trade economy and it has successfully adapted to free market conditions. It has undergone an economic change process with the structural reforms it realized in the early 90s, and thanks to these reforms, it became the production and export base of the world. For this reason, it started to be expressed as the "factory of the world". Undoubtedly, this statement is used because China pursues a production-based economic policy. Thanks to the economic policy it successfully implemented, China gained momentum in growth and increased the level of economic development. In addition, it has gained a special place in the world economy in the context of its high growth rate and high capital accumulation. Thus, it has become one of the largest manufacturers in the world and has increased its importance in global trade globally.
Since China sells products to the whole world, it affects the world economy as well as it is directly affected by the world economy. One of the factors affecting this effect is iron ore used as raw material. The continuous increase in the world's steel production in recent years has naturally increased the demand for iron ore. China is a country that has been importing iron ore for years. The iron ore market developing in this regard is very important for the global economy as well as the Chinese economy. Due to the importance of China's imported iron ore market globally, it is very important to determine the impact of iron ore. In this context, the aim of this study is to determine the impact level of China's iron ore imports and iron ore prices on the worldwide GDP value and the Chinese GDP value and to reveal the importance of iron ore for China.
China's iron ore imports, which increased its production over time, constituted 24.46% of the total global iron ore trade in 2003, while the foreign dependency rate of China's iron ore was around 57%. By 2018, China accounted for more than 70% of the world's iron ore trade, while its foreign dependency rate increased to around 80%. However, China does not have a power in the global iron pricing system since it does not have sufficient reserves. On the other hand, it can be thought that the impact of China in iron ore prices is inevitable.
China also contributes to the global economy with its foreign trade potential. When general macroeconomic indicators are analyzed, it is seen that China has shown an average growth performance of 10% in the last 40 years. One of the most important factors of this growth is undoubtedly foreign trade volume. The increase in China's foreign trade volume is in line with the growth potential of the world. In this case, the interaction between China and the global market can be evaluated within the framework of mutual interests.
When China's impact on world trade is considered macroeconomically, it is expected to have a structure directly related to the world economy, as it is the largest producer in the world and the leader of the export market. Iron ore, which is the biggest import item of China and used as raw material, has a special importance in terms of China's position in the global economy. In general, when the researches on the iron ore market are examined from the current literature, it is seen that the relations of China's foreign trade potential with the global economy are discussed. However, detailed and long-term studies on the iron ore market, China's largest import item, are limited. Therefore, it is important to carry out an analysis study in the context of China's iron ore import. Accordingly, in this study, the impact of Chinese iron ore imports and iron ore prices on both China and the world gross domestic product (GDP) has been tried to be determined and the importance of iron ore for China has been revealed.
For the purpose of this study, firstly, general information about iron ore is given and the definition of iron ore, the content of iron ore and types of iron ore are explained. In addition, iron ore reserves were examined worldwide and countries with the highest reserves and reserves were given worldwide. Within the scope of the study, iron ore trade is discussed in detail in the world in terms of the economic market, with reference to the iron ore usage areas. In addition, the factors that determine the price of iron ore within the scope of the study were examined and the effectiveness of steel, the most common use area of iron ore, in determining iron ore prices was emphasized.
Within the scope of the study, the change of iron ore price in the historical process is examined. The historical events and crises that affect the iron ore price change are handled chronologically, and the characteristics and effects of the events affecting iron ore on the price direction are explained.
In this study, the reasons behind the rapid growth of the Chinese economy in the history of the world have been discussed by mentioning the characteristics of the Chinese economy. In this context, it has been emphasized that China, which has many indirect effects on the economy of most states developed in terms of world trade, plays a very active role in creating a world competitive environment by exporting to many countries. Especially in many products, the impact of China on the elimination of the monopoly market occurring worldwide has been evaluated.
Logistics channels, which have a very important place in terms of transportation of iron ore, are discussed in detail within the scope of the study. Road, air and sea transportation routes used in iron ore transportation are mentioned. Sea transportation and its advantages have been tried to be explained by emphasizing that the most suitable transportation system especially for iron ore is sea transportation.
In the study, Chinese sea transportation is also included. In this regard, given the strong economic activity and the growth potential with its developing situation, China's position in the maritime sector has been mentioned especially in the last fifteen years. In this context, the scope of China's dry cargo fleet, the volume and size of its current fleet are discussed. COSCO, one of the largest shipping companies based in China, is discussed in detail and its importance for China is mentioned. In addition, the scope of the dry cargo fleet outside of COSCO in China has been detailed.
In the study, the production sector, which has an important place among these activities, was analyzed by considering the China-USA relations and the regional and global activities that were effective in making China become the country that attracts the most foreign investors after the USA. It is mentioned that machine production and metal industries take the highest priority in the Chinese manufacturing sector and these two areas constitute approximately three-quarters of the total gross value in industrial production.
In this study, the impact levels of China's iron ore imports and iron ore prices on world GDP and Chinese GDP were determined by regression analysis. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that iron ore imports had a significant effect on the Chinese GDP value, while the iron ore price had no significant effect. In addition, it was concluded that the iron ore price and the Chinese iron ore import amount had a positive effect on the world GDP value.