İstanbul ilindeki mevcut raylı sistemler ve planlanan raylı sistemler için toplu taşıma ataması
Public transit assignment for existing rail systems and planned rail systems in Istanbul
Yazar: ALİ ÜNAL
Danışman: PROF. DR. MEHMET NAHİT SERARSLAN
İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Endüstri Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı
Derece: Yüksek Lisans, 2016
Konu: Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği = Industrial and Industrial Engineering

Özet:
Ülkemizin en fazla nüfusuna sahip ili olan İstanbul'da yaşanan trafik problemi tüm ülke kamuoyunun yakından takip ettiği bir konudur. Özellikle, sabah ve akşam yoğun saatlerde, trafikte geçirilen uzun süreler makro açıdan değerlendirildiğinde tüm ülke ekonomisi için ciddi manada iş gücü verim kaybına neden olmaktadır. İstanbul'da yaşanan trafik probleminin çözümündeki ana unsurlardan biri olarak toplu taşımanın yaygınlaştırılması planlanmakta ve bu kapsamda birçok raylı sistem projesinin inşaatı devam etmektedir ve planlanan tüm raylı sistem projeleri tamamlandığında 2030 yılında İstanbul'da yaklaşık 1.000 Kilometrelik bir raylı sistem ağı olacaktır.
Bu tez çalışması kapsamında öncelikle 5 Mayıs 2015 tarihinde gerçekleşen İstanbul genelindeki tüm raylı sistemler-metrobüs yolculuk kayıtları incelenerek mevcut durumda (günümüzde) raylı sistemler-metrobüs sistemlerindeki yolculukların ilçe bazlı Başlangıç-Son matrisi oluşturulmuştur. Daha sonra 5 Mayıs 2015 tarihindeki İstanbul genelindeki tüm toplu taşıma sistemlerinde (Karayolu, deniz yolu, raylı sistemler) gerçekleşen yolculuklar analiz edilerek ve bazı varsayımlarla 2030 yılı raylı sistemler-metrobüs için B-S matrisi oluşturulmuştur. Bir sonraki aşamada ise mevcut ve 2030 yılı raylı sistemler projelerinin güzergâhları PTV Visum programında network ağına çizilerek tanımlanmıştır. Son olarak gerek mevcut raylı sistemler için gerekse de 2030 yılında hizmet vermesi planlanan raylı sistemler için toplu ulaşım atama yöntemlerinden olan "Ya hep ya hiç", "Tarife Bazlı" ve "Tarife Bazlı-Kapasite Kısıtlı" atama algoritmalarıyla toplu taşımada yolculuk ataması gerçekleştirilmiştir. Atama sonuçları ulaşım planlamadaki önemli unsurlardan olan yol (kesit), hat, istasyon ve yolcu vb. parametreler tarafından değerlendirilerek analiz edilmiştir.
Tarife bazlı kapasite kısıtlı atama sonuçları analiz edildiğinde; günümüzde çok popüler olan ve en fazla yolculuğun gerçekleştiği, şehrin batı-doğu aksında 52 kilometrelik bir güzergah üzerinde hizmet veren metrobüs sistemi, 2030 yılında da İstanbul'da en fazla yolculuğun gerçekleştiği toplu taşıma sistemi olarak ön plana çıkmaktadır. Metrobüs sistemini, günlük yaklaşık 545.000 yolculuğa hizmet vermesi öngörülen ve 2017 yılında hizmet vermeye başlayacağı duyurulan Üsküdar-Çekmeköy-Sultanbeyli M5 Metrosu izlemektedir. 2019 yılından itibaren Gebze-Halkalı arasında hizmet vermesi planlanan Marmaray sisteminde günlük yaklaşık 540.000 yolculuğun gerçekleşmesi planlanırken, M2 Yenikapı-Çayırbaşı Metrosu ve M4 Kadıköy-Tuzla Metrosu sırasıyla 500.000 ve 470.000 yolculuğa hizmet verecekleri öngörülerek en fazla yolculuğun gerçekleşmesi planlanan diğer toplu ulaşım sistemleridir. Yapımı devam eden Bahçeşehir-Beşiktaş Metrosu ve yapımı planlanan Kazlıçeşme-Söğütlüçeşme Metrosu da 2030 yılında İstanbul'da en fazla yolculuğun gerçekleşmesi öngörülen 10 toplu ulaşım sistemleri içerisinde yer almaktadır. Bunun yanında günümüzde de oldukça yoğun şekilde toplu taşıma sistemleri arası yolcu transferinin gerçekleştiği Altunizade metrobüs durağı, 2030 yılında da sistemler arası en fazla transferin gerçekleşeceği istasyon olarak ön plana çıkmaktadır.

Abstract:
The traffic problems existing in Istanbul, the province with the highest population of Turkey, is an issue closely followed by all the country's public. Especially, long hours spent in traffic in the morning and evening peak hours, that cause serious loss on labor and yield not only for İstanbul but also for Turkey. On behalf of solving the traffic problems experienced in Istanbul, the public transport has been planned to be extended. Within this scope, there are many rail systems are under construction and when the all planned rail system projects are completed, there will be a rail network of approximately 1,000 kilometers in Istanbul in 2030.
In this thesis study, firstly the passenger trips at both rail systems and metrobus lines of Istanbul in 5 May 2015 were analyzed and distinct based Origin-to-Destination matrix was generated for existing rail systems-metrobus ridership. Following this step, the passenger trips at all public transportation modes (land, sea, rail) of Istanbul in 5 May 2015 were analyzed and with some of the assumptions, distinct based O-D matrix was developed for the planned rail systems-metrobus ridership in 2030. In the next stage, existing rail systems-metrobus routes and planned rail systems projects-metrobus routes in 2030 were drawn and identified in the network of PTV Visum. Finally, 3 different public transit assignment algorithms which are all or nothing algorithms, Timetable Based algorithms and Timetable Based-Capacity constrained algorithms were used to public transit assignment for both for current network and planned rail systems-metrobus in 2030. The results of public transit assignment were analyzed based on crucial public transport parameters such as link-corridor, line, station and passenger.
When the timetable based-capacity constrained assignment results are analyzed, metrobus system (Bus Rapid Transit) ,which serves in east-west axis of the city on the 52 kilometers length, will serve the highest number of passangers in Istanbul at the year of 2030. Today, the metrobus system also serves the highest number of passangers in Istanbul. Nowadays, this BRT system carries approximately 880.000 passangers/day. Following the metrobus system, M5 Üsküdar-Ümraniye-Çekmeköy- Sultanbeyli Metro line, which will be planned to serve the city in the year of 2017, will carry approximately 550.000 passengers per daily. The one way line route of M5 Metro line is approximately 32 kilometers. Following M5 Üsküdar-Sultanbeyli Metro Line, it is anticipated that Marmaray Line will serve 540.000 passengers per day. After Metrobus and M5 Metro line, it is anticipated that Marmaray system will carry the highest passengers in a day. With the route expansion in 2019, Marmaray system will serve between Halkalı and Gebze, the distance between these two stations is approximately 66 kilometers, and it ties the anatolian side of Istanbul to European side of the city. Today, when the passengers boardings in the days of April 2016 month analyzed, the Marmaray system carries 181.307 passengers per day. M2 Yenikapı-Çayırbaşı Metro Line follows the other three systems and it is expected that M2 Yenikapı-Çayırbaşı Metro Line will serve 495.000 passengers per day in the year of 2030. When the passengers boarding at the 5 May of 2015 is analyzed, M2 Metro Line system carries 454.509 passengers/day. It is anticipated that the fifth system which will serve the highest number of passenger is M4 Kadıköy-Tuzla Metro Line. Due to results of timetable based-capacity constrained assignment results, M4 Metro Line will serve 470.126 passengers per day in the year of 2030. Today, this system carries 265.773 passengers per day. Besides these top 5 rail systems, the Bahçeşehir-Mecidiyeköy-Beşiktaş metro project which is under construction today, will carry 290.000 passengers per day in the year of 2030. It is also expected that Kazlışeşme-Söğütlüçeşme metro line project (the radial network metro line project of the Istanbul) which will be planned to serve in the year of 2023, can be evaluated as a succesful transportation invesment and it is anticipated that this metro project will carry 165.000 passengers per day in the year of 2030.
Due to the assignmet results of timetable based-capacity constrained algorithms, there are many rail system which will carry less than 10.000 passengers in a day in the year of 2030. Many of these rail systems are Ayazağı-İstinye Metro Line (which will be planned to serve in the route length of 6 kilometers in the year of 2030), Sabiha Gökçen Airport-Tuzla Metro Line (which will be planned to serve in the route length of 8,3 kilometers in the year of 2028), Eyüp-Vialand Cable Car Line (which will be planned to serve in the route length of 6,5 kilometers in the year of 2030). These and other rail projects' (which can be found in the thesis) line routes can be evaulated again and after these line routes checking, many projects' line routes may be revised. Besides of all, due to timetable based-capacity constrained assignment result, it is forecasted that the monorail projects which give boost to the city transportation planners, will not carry enormous number of passengers in a day in the year of 2030. It can be adviced that the city tranportation directors and planners should have look at these 10 monorail projects and review the line routes of these 10 projects. The assingment results also remark that Altunizade Metrobus Station will be the transfer center between different transportation modes and the highest passengers transfers in the all Istanbul will be occured in Altunizade Metrobus Station in the year of 2030.
Istanbul which has the highest density of people (2.743 people/m2) and the highest population (14.657.434 people) of Turkey, seriously faces traffic problem. When the traffic density index values between from March 2016 to April 2016 are evaluated, between 07.00 to 09.00 hours morning, the density average of istanbul is 54%; whereas the city faces 65% traffic density index at the evening peak time periods between 17.00 to 19.00. In other words, a 30 minutes distance can be passed approximately in 49 minutes in Istanbul at the evening peak hours. The city planners have planned to solve the traffic density problem by promote public transport and in this manner, many rail system constructions have already been started or will be started in the forthcoming years.
Besides this type of traffic density problems occurred in Istanbul and enormous rail system investments in the city, the recently started constructions in the city such as 3rd airport which will be the biggest airport in the world, 3rd Bosphorus Bridge (Yavuz Sultan Selim Bridge) and Kanalistanbul can change the city dynamics in the following
5-10 years and current passenger demands in transportation can also change due to those new investments effect. While this thesis study evaluate the future rail projects by the perspective of three different public transit assignment algorithms, the lackness of this study is that the newly constructed projects such as 3rd Airport, Yavuz Sultan Selim Bridge, Kanalİstanbul have been ignored and the effects on the city tranpostation demand dynamics and on the passenger O-D matrice of 2030 year of these major projects have also been ignored.
In the following years, after these important investments have been concluded and the city transportation demand dynamics have been changed, the more accurate O-D matrice can come into the open and after getting more accurate O-D matrices between zones, the public transit assingments can be executed and the more accurate results can be acquired in the following year.