I am not sure this particular analysis is any special or better On the contrary unlike normal there are too many assumptions without base She is one among the few I have been listening to for any worthy serious fundamental discussions But this one is an odd 
Right now everything points to one central pivotal figure How much money is coming back  Until we have updated authentic figures on a daily basis we wouldnt be able to tell anything at all The  Trillion incoming of Nov is still an unreliable figure with belies logic Could it be possible that this was just the inflow of deposits of which a part could still be SBN Notes that was popping into the huge salary accounts as usual on every month end
As for how to do with a special dividend there can be umpteen ways to find a solution as long as RBIs soul owner is Govt of India