[House Hearing, 116 Congress] [From the U.S. Government Publishing Office] THE SHUTDOWN: ECONOMIC IMPACT ON SMALL BUSINESSES ======================================================================= HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON SMALL BUSINESS UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED SIXTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION __________ HEARING HELD FEBRUARY 6, 2019 __________ [GRAPHIC NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] Small Business Committee Document Number 116-002 Available via the GPO Website: www.govinfo.gov __________ U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 34-637 PDF WASHINGTON : 2019 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Publishing Office, http://bookstore.gpo.gov. For more information, contact the GPO Customer Contact Center, U.S. Government Publishing Office. Phone 202-512-1800, or 866-512-1800 (toll-free).E-mail, [email protected]. HOUSE COMMITTEE ON SMALL BUSINESS NYDIA VELAZQUEZ, New York, Chairwoman ABBY FINKENAUER, Iowa ANDY KIM, New Jersey SHARICE DAVIDS, Kansas JARED GOLDEN, Maine JASON CROW, Colorado JUDY CHU, California MARC VEASEY, Texas DWIGHT EVANS, Pennsylvania BRAD SCHNEIDER, Illinois ADRIANO ESPAILLAT, New York ANTONIO DELGADO, New York CHRISSY HOULAHAN, Pennsylvania VACANT STEVE CHABOT, Ohio, Ranking Member AUMUA AMATA COLEMAN RADEWAGEN, American Samoa, Vice Ranking Member TRENT KELLY, Mississippi TROY BALDERSON, Ohio KEVIN HERN, Oklahoma JIM HAGEDORN, Minnesota PETE STAUBER, Minnesota TIM BURCHETT, Tennessee ROSS SPANO, Florida JOHN JOYCE, Pennsylvania Adam Minehardt, Majority Staff Director Melissa Jung, Majority Deputy Staff Director and Chief Counsel Kevin Fitzpatrick, Staff Director C O N T E N T S OPENING STATEMENTS Page Hon. Nydia Velazquez............................................. 1 Hon. Steve Chabot................................................ 2 WITNESSES Dr. Matthew D. Shapiro, Lawrence R. Klein Collegiate Professor of Economics, University of Michigan--Department of Economics, Ann Arbor, MI...................................................... 4 Mr. Bill Butcher, Founder, Port City Brewing Company, Alexandria, VA............................................................. 5 Ms. Heidi Gerding, CEO, HeiTech Services, Inc., Landover, MD..... 7 Mr. Charles Rowe, President & CEO, America's Small Business Development Centers, Arlington, VA............................. 9 APPENDIX Prepared Statements: Dr. Matthew D. Shapiro, Lawrence R. Klein Collegiate Professor of Economics, University of Michigan--Department of Economics, Ann Arbor, MI................................ 31 Mr. Bill Butcher, Founder, Port City Brewing Company, Alexandria, VA............................................. 39 Ms. Heidi Gerding, CEO, HeiTech Services, Inc., Landover, MD. 44 Mr. Charles Rowe, President & CEO, America's Small Business Development Centers, Arlington, VA......................... 56 Questions for the Record: None. Answers for the Record: None. Additional Material for the Record: Statement of Hon. Troy Balderson............................. 63 Chamber of Commerce.......................................... 65 DataPoint.................................................... 67 FRANdata..................................................... 68 IFA - International Franchise Association.................... 69 NAGGL - National Association of Government Guaranteed Lenders 73 National Council of Nonprofits............................... 75 Paychex...................................................... 82 THE SHUTDOWN: ECONOMIC IMPACT ON SMALL BUSINESSES ---------- WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 2019 House of Representatives, Committee on Small Business, Washington, DC. The Committee met, pursuant to call, at 11:00 a.m., in Room 2360, Rayburn House Office Building. Hon. Nydia Velazquez [chairwoman of the Committee] presiding. Present: Representatives Velazquez, Finkenauer, Kim, Davids, Golden, Veasey, Evans, Schneider, Delgado, Chabot, Balderson, Hern, Hagedorn, Stauber, Burchett, Spano, and Joyce. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. Good morning. The Committee will come to order. We thank everyone for joining us this morning, and I want to especially thank the witnesses for being here today. As we are all aware, the recent government shutdown was a particularly painful experience that will leave a lasting impact on our small business economy and our workforce. For many federal workers, contractors, and small business owners, it was 35 days of missed paychecks, delayed loans, and strained budgets. Most unsettling to many of us was the shear uncertainty of just how long this would last. Despite the shutdown ending, many small business owners and workers are still feeling its effect. While those direct and indirect costs are being tallied, there are some things that we already know. We know that $3 billion in economic activity has been permanently lost, according to the latest Congressional Budget Office figures. We also know that federal contractors and workers, many of whom live paycheck to paycheck had to take extraordinary measures to make ends meet. We know that the shutdown delayed $18 billion in federal discretionary spending and shuttered numerous Federal agencies, including the Small Business Administration. Because of the shutdown, SBA was forced to suspend many of its most crucial services, including the approval of small business loans and contractor certifications. During the shutdown, we heard one heartbreaking story after another. From small businesses who have lost customers and others waiting on SBA loans, to small contractors who are not getting paid, the impact was felt by many. But, what we do not know is the shutdown's full cost to the small business community. Today's hearing gives us the opportunity to answer this question. We will hear from a flourishing brewery that had to postpone the rollout of 2019 beers due to a lack of federal approval. We will also be hearing from a federal contractor that had to take extraordinary measures to ensure her employees were supported through this difficult time. These stories, along with many more, will give us insight into how small businesses, their employees, and local economies weathered this terrible storm. It is my hope that we can shed light on the difficulties entrepreneurs and federal workers alike are still enduring after the shutdown, and that as lawmakers we can come together to prevent another one in the future because the consequences are far too real for our nation's job creators. I look forward to today's hearing and thank the witnesses for being here to share their stories with us. I now would like to yield to the Ranking Member, Mr. Chabot, for his opening statement. Mr. CHABOT. Thank you, Madam Chairwoman. The partial government shutdown left many small businesses in a state of uncertainty, and it is important that we address how quickly we can bring the small business economy back up to speed. Many American small businesses utilize services from the Federal Government, and of particular interest to this Committee, they often turn to the SBA, the Small Business Administration. The SBA provides small businesses with many different types of assistance, including aid and competing for government contracts, gaining access to capital, and entrepreneurial development. Unfortunately, during this winter's partial government closure, the majority of the SBA's employees, with the exception of the Office of Disaster Assistance, were furloughed. This temporarily halted the SBA's lending programs and left many small business contractors without pay. Many small businesses around the country also saw a drop in consumer spending, especially those most frequented by government employees. Yet, even in the most trying of times, I am always encouraged by the determination of America's entrepreneurs. Despite the dysfunction in Washington, small businesses started off 2019 strong. According to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), small firms added workers, realizing the best rate gain since last July. Wages also rose in January with the percentage of business owners reporting that they increased employee compensation and it continued at 45-year record highs. This welcomed news, however, does not mean that small businesses came out unscathed. Many small businesses' bottom lines were influenced by the government's closure, and obviously, adversely. Now that the Federal Government has reopened, many small businesses are wondering what is next. Today, I hope we will be able to provide clarity to any small business affected by the shutdown. While government shutdowns often prompt people and politicians alike to assign blame, I hope that today we can put those differences aside and have a productive conversation to help our nation's small businesses get back on track so they can continue to prosper, innovate, expand, and hire folks. Thank you, Madam Chairwoman, and I yield back. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. Thank you, Mr. Chabot. The gentleman yields back. And if Committee members have an opening statement prepared we would ask that they be submitted for the record. I would like to take a few minutes to explain the timing rules. Each witness gets 5 minutes to testify, and each member gets 5 minutes for questioning. There is a lighting system to assist you. The green light will be on when you begin and the yellow light will come on when you have 1 minute remaining. The red light will come on when you are out of time, and we ask that you stay within the timeframe to the best of your ability. I would now like to introduce our witnesses. Our first witness is Dr. Matthew Shapiro. Dr. Shapiro is the Lawrence Klein Collegiate Professor of Economics at the University of Michigan. He is editor of the American Economic Journal of Economic Policy. Dr. Shapiro is also the Chair of the Federal Economic Statistic Advisory Committee, the official advisory Committee of the Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Welcome, sir. Our second witness is Mr. Bill Butcher. Mr. Butcher is the founder of Port City Brewing Company, an artisanal craft brewery in Alexandria, Virginia. He is a fourth generation Alexandrian and is a long-time craft beer aficionado. He watched the craft beer business evolve and become more like the fine wine business. It was this evolution that convinced him and his wife Karen to start Port City Brewing Company in Alexandria in 2011. Welcome. Our third witness today is Ms. Heidi Gerding. Ms. Gerding is the CEO and cofounder of HeiTech Services, a woman- and service-disabled veteran owned business. HeiTech Services is a federal programs and technology solutions provider headquartered in Landover, Maryland. She is the first woman from Minnesota to graduate from the U.S. Naval Academy. Ms. Gerding's naval career spanned nearly 10 years during a time when being an academy graduate, a naval officer, and a woman, challenged established tradition. Welcome, Ms. Gerding, and thank you for your service. I now yield to our Ranking Member, Mr. Chabot, to introduce our final witness. Mr. CHABOT. Thank you, Madam Chairwoman. Our final witness today is Mr. Charles T. Rowe, president and CEO of America's Small Business Development Centers, a nationwide network of 975 centers providing no cost business counseling and training to small business owners. Prior to this role, Mr. Rowe served as the associate administrator with Congressional Legislative Affairs for the SBA, the Small Business Administration, and also served on the House Small Business Committee, this Committee, as counsel for 10 years. Welcome back to the Committee, Mr. Rowe, and we thank you for testifying today. And we thank all the witness, and Ms. Gerding, thank you for your service. Appreciate it. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. Thank you, Mr. Chabot. And now I recognize Dr. Shapiro for 5 minutes. STATEMENTS OF MATTHEW D. SHAPIRO, LAWRENCE R. KLEIN COLLEGIATE PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS, UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN - DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS; BILL BUTCHER, FOUNDER, PORT CITY BREWING COMPANY; HEIDI GERDING, CEO, HEITECH SERVICES, INC.; CHARLES ROWE, PRESIDENT AND CEO, AMERICA'S SMALL BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT CENTERS STATEMENT OF MATTHEW D. SHAPIRO Mr. SHAPIRO. Thank you for the opportunity to testify about the effects of the recent partial government shutdown. The recent government shutdown had an immediate and direct effect on government workers and contractors who were not paid during the shutdown and businesses who therefore lost sales. Research on the 2013 government shutdown provides concrete evidence about how government workers coped with a drop in pay and provides insights into how the direct effects of the lost pay affect the economy in general and small businesses in particular. Many households live paycheck to paycheck. A typical government worker had about a week's worth of spending in the bank prior to the 2013 shutdown. Roughly 20 percent only had 1 day's worth of spending in the bank prior to the shutdown. Hence, many government workers needed to take multiple steps to make payments and meet expenses when they go payless. In October 2013, government workers took a number of measures. On average, they cut overall spending by an amount equal to about half the pay shortfall. Households with a low cash buffer cut spending more sharply. Many deferred payments, including mortgage, rent, and credit card payments. There is little evidence, however, that workers affected by the 2013 government shutdown borrowed by incurring new charges on their credit cards. Those who have little cash and substantial credit card debt appeared very reluctant to accumulate new debt in the face of the drop in income. Because the 2013 shutdown resolved quickly and workers were paid promptly, it had little lasting effect on workers' financial conditions or on the overall economy. Workers who deferred mortgage payments or rent were able to make payments once they received retroactive pay, often within the month, so there was no discernable effect on their credit. While the coping strategies of affected workers in the recent shutdown appear similar to that in 2013, the severity of the shutdown for affected workers led to much greater economic impacts. Few households have sufficient cash buffers to offset a month with no pay. As the shutdown entered its fifth week last month, there was considerable risk of a sharp drop in economic activity. The out-of-pocket costs of coming to work, commuting costs or childcare expenses are significant and needed to be paid even by those government worker who were mandated to work. The temporary expedient of skipping a payment of rent, of mortgage, of credit card, of cellphone, of utilities, of insurance, of doctors' bills, you name it, something that might have seemed at first fairly low risk given the short duration of previous shutdowns was a looming financial disaster for many households. Disruption of Federal services, particularly air transportation, were becoming widespread. Small businesses provide many consumer needs for discretionary purposes. Examples include restaurants and coffee shops, dry cleaners, corner grocery stores, parking lots, movie theaters, or car dealerships. When households have to make cutbacks, they focus on discretionary purchases, such as eating out, or big ticket items that can be deferred, such as a car or appliance purchase. Businesses and locations where Federal workers and contractors live or work were disproportionately affected. Workers deferring their payments also affect business. Some of these payments--mortgage, credit cards, utility, phone bills--were paid to large institutions who presumably had a financial buffer. In contrast, late rent payments may go to small landlords who themselves owe payments to creditors and to the small businesses who service their properties. The shutdown may have placed such businesses under stress, which could have been severe had the shutdown continued into a second cycle of monthly payments. There are other effects much harder to quantify but equally important from having the Federal Government operating partially for 5 weeks. Those doing business with the government, those awaiting regulatory approvals, those awaiting loan approvals, or just trying to get information were put on hold. They face continuing delays as the affected agencies clear the backlogs associated with the 5-week closure. These disruptions are likely to have an accumulative and persistent effect on business output and productivity. Perhaps a silver lining from the recent shutdown is the widespread disruptions it caused made salient the many Federal functions that provide vital services to business and the public. Further estimates on the effect of the shutdown are available from official statistics, macroeconomic models, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. I provide some details in my written testimony. Thank you for asking me to testify before the Committee, and I look forward to your questions. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. Thank you so much for being on time. I really appreciate it. And now we will recognize Mr. Butcher for 5 minutes. STATEMENT OF BILL BUTCHER Mr. BUTCHER. Chairwoman Velazquez, Ranking Member Chabot and members of the Committee, thank you for asking me to testify today. I look forward to speaking on behalf of the small and independent brewers about the impact of the partial government shutdown. My name is Bill Butcher. I am the founder of Port City Brewing Company in Alexandria, Virginia. Port City began operations in 2011 and since then we have grown to have 56 employees. We brew a variety of beers, with a number of year- round staples, seasonal beers, as well as one-offs. In 2015, we were named Small Brewery of the Year, and our beers have won, local, national and international awards. I invite all of you and your staff to come visit Port City any time and see how our brewery is run. Port City is committed to being a local and independent brewery. For example, we purchase close to 400,000 pounds of Virginia-grown wheat to use in our Optimal Wit, which is our best-selling beer. We are proud of our work with our supply chain partners in manufacturing, agriculture, and retail, and the jobs we have helped to create. According to the Brewers Association, which is the trade association that represents small and independent brewers, breweries like ours contributed $76.2 billion to the U.S. economy in 2017, and we employ more than 135,000 Americans in manufacturing and service jobs. Running a brewery is capital and time intensive. As a small business, we rely on planning to make sure that we can operate our brewery, meet our suppliers' needs, and pay our employees. We know that unexpected issues can arise, and we do everything we can to prepare for them. Unfortunately, no one could prepare for the impact the partial government shutdown would have on breweries. Two major agencies that we rely on to run our businesses were closed during the shutdown. The Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau, also known as the TTB, and the Small Business Administration (SBA). One of the TTB's main functions is to process certificate of label approvals, also known as COLAs, which breweries are required to have if we package our beer and sell it across state lines. Some states also require COLAs for all beer packaged and sold in state. Without a label approval we cannot sell our beer. You may be surprised to hear that as an industry we get along with our regulators. Over the past few years, the TTB has taken steps to increase efficiency and turnaround time of approvals. Last year they approved more than 34,000 malt beverage labels. Prior to the shutdown, the turnaround time on malt beverage label approvals was between 6 and 30 days. As of February 1, the TTB estimated a 53 day approval time and was only processing labels that were submitted last December 13. The backlog is not the fault of the TTB. The employees who process labels, formulas, and brewers' notices are deemed nonessential. They were prohibited from reporting to work during the shutdown. To give you an idea of how this hurts a brewery, I will use Port City as an example. We spent months putting together a release calendar for our 2019 beers to help us determine when we will purchase ingredients and packaging supplies. On December 18, we submitted a label for a beer that we were planning to release in the spring. Until we get that approval, we cannot sell that beer and the entire supply chain is on hold. The uncertainty is not just impacting my business. It is impacting everyone I do business with. We are just one of the thousands of businesses who are dealing with these repercussions. We are asking that the TTB employees be declared essential. To our business and thousands of others they are just that. If you empower a Federal agency to give approvals for basic business activities, you need to keep them at work. Unfortunately, time is of the essence. The upcoming deadline for funding the government has brewers throughout the country nervous about another shutdown and its long-term impacts on their business. Port City was also hurt by the furloughing of SBA staff who were working on a loan application for our new bottling line. We have been unable to lock down an interest rate, and I will likely have to pay thousands more over the life of the loan in interest. Last year, the SBA provided $1.4 billion in loans to more than 1,900 small breweries. I can attest firsthand to the importance of those loans. We ask that the SBA employees who approve federally- backed loans also be declared essential. Congress can also help mitigate the effects of the shutdown by making the Federal excise tax rates from the Craft Beverage Modernization and Tax Reform Act permanent. In 2018, breweries, wineries, and distilleries across the U.S. have hired new employees, increased their economic development, and made capital improvements to their businesses. Making the lower rate permanent in 2019 will allow breweries to continue doing these things and to help cover any losses that resulted from the government shutdown. In conclusion, my company and other breweries need reliable Federal partners to continue to grow. We cannot sell our product without them. I ask that in the future you work to get TTB and SBA employees declared essential. Thank you again for having me here, and I look forward to any questions you may have. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. Thank you, Mr. Butcher. And now Ms. Gerding is recognized for 5 minutes. STATEMENT OF HEIDI GERDING Ms. GERDING. So thank everyone. I want to start first of all by thanking Ms. Velazquez and Mr. Chabot for having us here today. Also, the veterans that are serving as congressmen today, thank you very much for your service as well. Nothing is more important to me. I also serve on a board of directors for the National Veterans Small Business Coalition and very near and dear to my heart still. I have in my testimony that you have in front of you, it was interesting. My son read it and said, Mom, this sounds more like a proposal for the government than it does testimony. So you will see exhibits and attachments and all sorts of fun things in there. It is based into four areas--background, impact, I summarize, and then the call to action. My testimony is a very personal testimony. It does not have a lot of statistics in there about small business and things. This is an impact to my business directly. We are HeiTech Services. This is a government contractor. The one thing I will say is that we really recognize, spent a lot of time recognizing the Federal workforce. No time whatsoever was spent recognizing the government contractors that support those agencies. Our people were not allowed to go into food banks and get food, yet they were without pay for a number of weeks. My company fortunately, after 2 weeks of no pay, for 36 employees of about 160 billable staff that I had working, so it is about 22.5 percent of my billable workforce, were without pay for 2 weeks. The company asked them to take vacation, personal time, or leave without pay. Normally, we do not allow our people to take leave without pay. We ask them to expend their vacation and personal time, but due to the circumstances, knowing that a couple of our employees were getting married and had plans, needed to save their leave and things like that. We had other members that were pregnant and they knew that maternity leave was coming up. They had plans for their vacation. So they went without pay for 2 weeks. After 2 weeks my staff got together and said, you know what? I could not do this as an owner of a business. This is ridiculous. So at the third week we put our employees back on the payroll at our erosion of profits to keep those people. When you consider the time and the effort it takes to recruit a new person to fulfill a government contract, which our costs are about $1,100 per new person. That does not include the time to get them through a national agency clearance investigation, a NACI check, which can range from 3 to 8 weeks once we identify and get an offer letter back from an employee accepting employment. They then go through 3 to 8 weeks waiting for the government to say, yes, they can start work. If in the worst case scenario an agency takes 8 weeks to approve that person to start on the job and it comes back denied because they found something that I did not pick up in my background check that maybe they had access to FBI records or something that my background people do not have access to, the whole process starts again. So we have staff that are performing work extra because of vacancies that are currently existing on contracts. When I talked about the impact, I labeled it into three areas--financial impact on the employees, the financial impact on the company, and then the emotional toll it took on both sides which are, I mean, they are just unbearable to even think about. Probably the biggest thing was the employees that were not affected, were still working for the FDA, were concerned that the FDA might run out of money and would they be furloughed? What would happen then? The only relief came when they heard that the company put, after 3 weeks, everybody back on the payroll. It did provide some relief, but there was a lot of anxiety associated with that. When people are worried about things, they do not perform at their top performance level. Our company processes paper and electronic forms for the Federal Government. Our work is considered mission critical. At the Food and Drug Administration, we are processing medical device applications for approval. We are also processing the adverse events that come from the result of a malfunction, serious injury, or a death of a malfunction. Those are mission- critical services, and they are usually fee-based. So those employees continued to work. One employee gave me an acknowledgement that we take a lot from importers overseas calling the FDA and asking us questions about registering things. It was an embarrassment he said to have them have to explain to foreign countries or foreign companies that our country was shut down in that particular area and could not process something. It was unfathomable to another country that this country could not do something. So I want to summarize things, although please take time to read my testimony. I personally wrote this testimony because it was from the heart. I saw what my employees went through. I know what I would have gone through. But I wrapped it up with three calls to action. The first one is, please, please fund these last seven agencies and departments. Do not have my employees have to go through this again next week. The next thing is to treat--do not forget about the Government contractors. There are so many government contractors that outnumber Federal employees. Do not forget about us. The analogy that I use in there is when the Vietnam War era, people came back from the war, they were not treated respectfully. And as a result of that, today our veterans are coming back and being respected. Do not make this analogous to that situation. Have us be those returning war veterans and treat us with the same amount of respect. And finally, something that I just became aware of myself was the debt ceiling that is looming on March 2. Please do not lose sight of that. The economic impact to my business and me personally as a mother is unconscionable. So please do not forget about the debt ceiling and do a bipartisan piece of legislation and vote for extraordinary measures to get that through. Thank you. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. Thank you, Ms. Gerding. And now I recognize Mr. Rowe for 5 minutes. STATEMENT OF CHARLES ROWE Mr. ROWE. Thank you, Chairwoman Velazquez, Ranking Member Chabot, members of the Committee. I am president of America's SBDC, the association that represents the nationwide small business development center system. For 40 years, SBDCs have been assisting small business owners and aspiring entrepreneurs. So, what was the effect of the shutdown? Well, luckily, SBDCs were able to carry on. Our host institutions have the flexibility to support us for a short period. Some networks were forced to suspend advisors and reduce hours, but it was really our clients who bore the brunt of the shutdown's impact. Our Federal contracting clients had to suspend work. SBDCs started fielding calls and questions from them right away. Small contractors are often the most affected by a shutdown. Procedures go into place, notices go out, and sometimes there are more questions than answers. A large contractor can shift employees, sort out disruptions, absorb some overhead, but for a small business, the owner and the employees are hanging out there together and key employees can actually be lost to a better opportunity. There were 41,000 small business contractors affected. One SBDC client supporting the FAA employs 75 people and 90 percent of those employees were furloughed. Their contract is back now. They weathered this shutdown. But they are uncertain about what will happen if there is another one. And when a small business contractor gets furloughed, there is no recouping lost revenue. And it is not just the existing contracts. An SBDC client was awaiting 8(a) certification. Without that and letters of support from the local Federal lab which was closed, they could not go to an Air Force pitch day, so time was lost and opportunities that will never come back. SBDCs also have thousands of clients seeking financing. And when SBA shuts down, 7(a) and 504 lending stops. A Lynchburg, Virginia borrower was awaiting SBA approval so he could move to a permanent location. He had given up his long-term lease expecting that approval. Now he is waiting, worried that his landlord might evict him if he finds a long- term lessee. In Twin Falls, Idaho, the SBDC works closely with a local 504 lender. Eleven million dollars of financing was halted. In Twin Falls, that is a lot of money. Another $800,000 there was stopped when a lender funding a remodel could not get a simple subordination. Until SBA reopened, clients could not do simple things like that. Or get approval for a life insurance payout to a widow whose spouse was her business partner. It happened all over. A childcare center in North Carolina waiting for a decision from SBA may cost the business their building. In Illinois, an 80- year-old design and engineering company may close because their loan was not funded by the closing date of December 27. SBDCs have a partnership with the International Franchise Association. They told us that roughly $12 million a day in SBA-backed loans were being delayed for franchises. Now, SBA is working to clear the backlog, but in the meantime, small businesses are trying to figure out bridge loans and alternatives. Hopefully, they will come to us to work it out. Otherwise, desperation can lead to poor business choices, something I know the Chairwoman has worked on and we really support her bill on that. As I mentioned above, 8(a) certifications were suspended. So were mentor-protege agreements. So a small business trying to get approved to team with a large contractor is put on hold. And if it is a defense contractor, they are still working but the small business cannot. And business stopped at the Department of Commerce. Export.gov was shut down. SBDC clients are okay because we have certified export counselors, but any small business looking for help on export regulations on their own was stuck. SBDCs are providing all the help we can to keep our clients in the black and help any new small business clients. The DC SBDC is co-sponsoring an event with Intuit bringing in advisors to help contractors and hosting a meet and greet for D.C. restaurants that felt the pinch, too. It is, more than anything, a morale boost because many of them are wondering what will happen come February 15th. Our mission is to help them and prepare them for the future. Small business hates uncertainty, and that is exactly what a shutdown is. They are not bad business people. They did not make mistakes. They just got caught up in the shutdown. Thank you. I look forward to answering any questions. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. Let me thank all the witnesses for sharing your stories. You know, sometimes here in Washington we lose perspective into the incredible long-lasting impact that a government shutdown will have, not only on federal workers but on those who really keep this economy growing. I recognize myself for 5 minutes, and I will start by asking Dr. Shapiro the first question. The CBO projects a reduced level of GDP for this first quarter, nearly $8 billion lower than expected. Even the Wall Street Journal has also reported small businesses have become more cautious in their expenditures. What could another prolonged shutdown possibly mean for the economy, consumer confidence, workers, and spending? Mr. SHAPIRO. Thank you very much. As the last witness said, uncertainty makes planning very difficult. That is true for both businesses and households. So even the threat of a shutdown is presumably slowing down activity this month as workers try to build up cash balances and businesses are uncertain whether they should hire or buy a piece of equipment. So the risk of a further shutdown is likely having effects now. Resolving the uncertainty would be very important. At the University of Michigan, we have a Consumer Sentiment Survey, which asks random sample of households across the country--how is the economy going to do? The index of consumer sentiment fell 7 percent in Janaury, a very significant drop. A number of respondents mentioned the shutdown. These were folks who were not necessarily directly affected, but were concerned about its effect on the economy overall. I also find the CBO estimates highly credible, but they are based on previous shutdowns where the resolution was fairly quick and the uncertainty was rapidly resolved. If the impasse over funding the government drags on, I would expect the CBO might have to update its estimates and that they would show a bigger effect on GDP. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. And if this sharp decline in consumer and business confidence or sentiment were to continue, could this lead to an economic slowdown this year? Mr. SHAPIRO. That is potentially the case. The part of the government that is directly affected is small enough that it alone would not lead to a recession. But I think there is a concern with overall confidence, that the government is not functioning, and that ordinary decisions are not being made would depress confidence overall and have very dramatic spillovers. Recessions are hard to predict. The economy is quite resilient, but it is possible that a further shutdown could trigger a recession. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. Thank you. Mr. Butcher, how much of a delay would you say this unexpected interruption has cost you in time and money? I know that you put some planning into the 2019 beer rollout, so if there is any way for you to quantify that. Mr. BUTCHER. Yeah. We spent the last four months of 2018 planning for 2019 and introducing new beers to the market. The craft beer business, growth is driven by innovation. By releasing new beers. Craft beer drinkers are always looking for something new. Our restaurant customers are always looking for something new. And when we submit the label it should take about 14 days to get approved. And so the labels that we have caught up in the backlog at the TTB are beers that we plan on releasing next month, as well as the month following. So March and April and May. And what that does for us is it just, if we cannot sell our new beers in the market, those beers just do not get purchased. We cannot make that up. People going out to eat or buying beer in a store, they are going to buy something else. And that effectively slows down our business. Also, when we look at our suppliers, we buy a significant amount of wheat from a farm in Heathsville, Virginia, and we contract that wheat. And if we are not going to buy it when we say we were going to buy it, it slows their small business down as well and then they need to figure out what they are going to do with that excess wheat. Do they send it to the maltster, or do they have to sell it as animal feed, or do they just not get to sell that grain? So it really affects us up the supply stream as well as down the supply stream with restaurants that are slowed as well. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. Thank you. Ms. Gerding, you said that, small contractors and their workers are the silent victims of the shutdown. It seems their plight is a difficult one to get hard numbers on as we are gathering anecdotal stories from the press and those who reach out to us. So I would really like to hear your thoughts on whether you are worried about the potential for negative past performance ratings caused by the shutdown and how that could impede your ability to win future contracts. Ms. GERDING. So the answer to that question is the potential is certainly there. I think today all of our customers completely understand the shutdown and are giving us a pass, if you will, for deliverables and timeliness and things that they measure our performance on. My concern is a month or two from now that will have been forgotten about, the shutdown, and they will want to know why we were not able to recover, why we were not able to catch up. So today I am okay, but I am worried about past performance down the pike. I am still gathering information from my project managers in the field as to any backlogs that may have resulted and how that may impact our performance in the future. But you know, past performance is key to winning contracts, and if it is marred in any way it will hinder my ability to grow the business. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. Thank you. My time has now expired. The Ranking Member, Mr. Chabot, is now recognized for 5 minutes. Mr. CHABOT. Thank you, Madam Chair. And before I ask questions, just kind of a point here. I think all the witnesses have indicated why we want to avoid another shutdown occurring in the very near future because these things impact the economy. They impact real people in many ways, especially as you mentioned, Ms. Gerding. And it ought to happen in Congress. The President ought not to have to take emergency action of any sort. So it seems to me that there is somewhere between $5.7 billion for border security and zero that we in good faith when we deal with trillions of dollars every year we ought to be able to find some area there. We have not yet but hopefully our leadership, and we in conjunction with our leadership, will do that. Mr. Rowe, let me begin with you. What specific forms of support can SBDCs that you are intimately involved in and knowledgeable about, obviously, and other entrepreneurial development centers offer to small businesses during times of uncertainty such as a government shutdown? Mr. ROWE. It really depends on the business, Mr. Chabot. If they are a Federal contractor, we can offer them some advice. We operate 29 of the 94 PTACs, Procurement Technical Assistance Centers. And we can offer them some advice on how to handle the loss of revenue and try and deal with it as Ms. Gerding did. But honestly, we cannot really tell them anything about what is going to happen in terms of the government coming back on. Now, with borrowers, the 7(a) and 504 lenders, they are stuck. They cannot get approvals from SBA, and very often, the very reason we have gone with our clients through a 7(a) loan process or a 504 loan process is because they have exhausted the other options. So then we are trying to help them find bridge or alternative financing. Very often there is some limited ability to do that. Some of the folks in the 504 and 7(a) community have been really great about stepping up and finding ways to help the clients, but that is a limited resource. Mr. CHABOT. Yes. Yes. Let me move to Ms. Gerding. Ms. Gerding, I think you very poignantly highlighted one of the most significant items that I think oftentimes got ignored in the coverage of the shutdown, and that is it was not just government employees. You know, you would sometimes hear cavalier statements about, oh, well, they are off for 3 weeks or 2 weeks and it is an unpaid vacation at this point but they are going to get paid and that kind of thing. But the government contractors, those employed by private entities, they oftentimes are going to get nothing back. And literally were receiving nothing. And you talked about that. What would you like to comment about that and how it really affected real people that you knew of? Ms. GERDING. I think that the back pay situation is something that Congress should consider reimbursing those contractors. All four of my contracts that were affected out of the 20 were firm fixed price contracts. Technically, I should be reimbursed at the end of the month for the work that was done or not done because I am based on a firm fixed price. However, the acquisition workforce is new and many of the people do not understand the regulations. And so there has been a lot of pushback in the past that if I have a vacancy or if there is another presidential mandate because a former president died and there is a day that is off in this particular town, that they are not going to reimburse us for those days because we did not work. And so there has been a lot of education that has been tried to go back and forth with the acquisition officers. SAIC, I know, was reporting that for every week they were off they were losing something like $10 million for every week. Certainly, we are not at that size but I think that extrapolating our information to what they are experiencing, it is a ripple effect across government contracting. Mr. CHABOT. If I could stop there because I have only got less than or about a minute. Ms. GERDING. Can I just say one quick thing? Mr. CHABOT. Real quick. Ms. GERDING. Just recognize them. Just acknowledge that we exist. I think that will go so far. Mr. CHABOT. Thank you very much. Mr. Butcher, I have only got a short time here. We passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act a while back and a lot of small businesses, individuals, a lot of folks benefitted from that. Could you comment briefly on how your company has used the savings in that either to reinvest or for your employees or what you have done with it? Mr. BUTCHER. Yes. The savings and when the excise tax was cut last year, we have used that savings to buy new tanks for our brewery. We have hired more people at our brewery. Salespeople out in the field. And we have used that money to continue that savings, to continue to grow our business. We also have installed a brand new bottling line that would not have been possible without the excise tax being cut. Mr. CHABOT. Thank you very much. My time is expired, Madam Chair. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. The gentleman's time has expired and the gentleman yielded back. The gentlelady from Iowa, Ms. Abby Finkenauer, who is the Chair of the Subcommittee on Rural Development, Agricultural Trade, and Entrepreneurship is now recognized for 5 minutes. Ms. FINKENAUER. Thank you, Madam Chair. I just want to thank all of you today for being here and hearing from you. You know, I am one of the freshmen that got sworn in in the middle of the shutdown, and Ms. Gerding and Mr. Butcher, your testimony today underscores what I was hearing back in my district and also across the country, that our working families and our small businesses should never be used as bargaining chips when it comes to policy decisions. And Mr. Shapiro, you underscored that not only is that bad for our values, it is also bad for our economy. And I am just, again, very grateful to have you all here today. Mr. Rowe, I really appreciate your testimony. And one of the things you highlighted was small businesses, and for me, especially our farmers, hate uncertainty. And so this question I am hoping you can help me with here a bit. You know, this shutdown has had serious impact on Iowa's workers and our farmers across the board. In my district we heard from small businesses that could not afford to have their products inspected and approved for sale, and from farmers who missed out on key data and loan deadlines. This shutdown hurt Iowa's families and our farmers, which are quite frankly the lifeblood of our economy in rural America. And on top of that, our farmers and workers are getting hit hard every single day from this trade war. In Iowa, nearly half of our employees work at small businesses, which are 99 percent of our businesses. From your different perspectives, and I know that you all have many of them, but Mr. Rowe, again, I hope you can help me with this one, what could we do to help minimize the impact to our farmers, small businesses, and their employees, in the case of another shutdown, which I hope we do not see? Should we be looking at ideas on regulatory relief? Waiving payment deadlines? Or would a new short-term loan program make sense to minimize disruptions? Do you have any ideas of what we could be doing in the future here? Because quite frankly, we should never be put in this position again, but I want to make sure that our small businesses and our farmers are taken care of. Mr. ROWE. Thank you, Ms. Finkenauer. Well, the easiest thing would be to just come to agreement and not have a shutdown. But honestly, we do deal with a lot of value-added agriculture, rural businesses. While USDA inspections are considered mandatory, there is a bit of a gap sometimes. And I have heard this actually from one of our clients in Texas, that there are USDA inspectors who do not have a company car so they cannot get around to do the inspections unless they are spending their own money on gas and using their own car. I think one of the things USDA could look at is making sure that their inspection force is up and ready for everybody who is involved. I think waiving the payments, if you do not have someone to make a payment to, it should essentially be waived. I do not understand how that system works, I admit. As far as loans go, USDA's B&I loan program was shut down just like 504 and 7(a) at SBA. It is the same problem there. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. The gentlelady yields back. And now we recognize Representative Troy Balderson, Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Innovation and Workforce Development for 5 minutes. Mr. BALDERSON. Thank you, Madam Chair. And I would like to say a few opening statements as the Ranking Member also did just to bring up a couple points. It is important that we carefully consider the impacts of the Federal Government's actions, or inactions, have on the average American. Unfortunately, even a partial shutdown, like the one we just experienced, can have a detrimental impact on Ohioans and their small business. I have another solution. I have introduced a piece of legislation called End the Government Shutdowns Act, which will prevent small businesses from ever suffering again due to appropriations impasse. I thank the Ranking Member for his co- sponsorship and support on this important piece of legislation. Today I plan to listen to these folks at the witness table who have so graciously volunteered their time so I may learn from your experiences. I hope my colleagues on both sides of this dais will join me in finding solutions for small businesses, the heart of our economy. And I invite my colleagues to co-sponsor the End Government Shutdowns Act. My first question is directed to Mr. Rowe. Do you believe the continued operation of programs such as the 7(a), 504, and microloan programs is critical? Mr. ROWE. Yes, sir, I do. The whole point to the 7(a) and 504 programs, and I worked as Committee counsel, as Mr. Chabot pointed out, the whole point to these programs is to provide assistance to solid small businesses that have not been able to access the financing they need in the private sector. Mr. BALDERSON. Thank you. Question for Ms. Gerding. I appreciate you sharing your insight on the difference between the treatment of Federal contractors and Federal employees. I had that situation in my district and I, myself, said the same thing. There are other folks out there that are being affected by this that the conversation is not happening with. Could you elaborate on how a partial lapse in appropriations impacts affect the contractors differently? Ms. GERDING. The first point I will make is the recognition. Just the fact that we are not even being recognized at the table, I think a lot of our employees feel not valued and that their work is not important. As I hear the other speakers here testify about not having gas money and things like that my head goes to are these government contractors, which leads to a whole different discussion on how contracts are being bid and won on low cost, technically acceptable. So maybe whoever bid this contract did not put that in there to save money and so, but the public does not know that they are government contractors maybe performing. So it is a whole another discussion. But I think the other thing is the indirect costs that are associated with this. Many of my customers are uneducated in how government contracting is bid. And they do not recognize the fact that when I pay somebody $50,000 an year, they think that I should charge them $50,000 an year. They do not consider the overhead, the indirect expenses associated with running the business. So oftentimes I am having to educate my customers about that whole process which is maddening sometimes because they think if I am charging $75 an hour to the government but I am only paying the employee $50 an hour that $25 is profit going in my pocket when, in fact, it is not. It is paying for health insurance. It is paying for all the other insurances and fringe that I am covering. I am paying for the other staff that is supporting the company, the payroll people, the CFO, the chief operating officer, other things just to keep the business running. So I think there is a big disconnect right there is that the government contractors, it impacts more than just the employee. It affects those that are indirectly supporting the company as well. Mr. BALDERSON. I agree. Thank you for your answer. Dr. Shapiro, would you agree that preventing Government shutdowns from occurring all together would provide more certainty for small businesses and the American economy? Mr. SHAPIRO. Yes, I would agree with that. Mr. BALDERSON. Thank you. I yield back the rest of my time, Madam Chair. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. The gentleman yields back and now we will recognize the gentlelady from Kansas, Ms. Davids, for 5 minutes. Ms. DAVIDS. Thank you, Madam Chair. So Ms. Gerding, I am going to start with you because in Kansas, like in a lot of places, there are a lot of Federal employees, but also a lot of Federal contractors, specifically in my district. In fact, in Overland Park there are a lot of government contractors and all over my district. And yesterday I spoke with the owner of Veracity, also a woman-owned business. And the similarities between what I am hearing from you today and what I heard from her yesterday are stark and highlight that, although these are anecdotal, that it is across the board we are seeing similar outcomes. In January alone, yesterday, she told me that she lost $135,000 in her business, and continued to pay employees, although she was not sure, the uncertainty that we have heard about, was not sure when her contracts would pick back up. Which leads me to a question about retention, employee retention, the concern about being able to attract high- skilled, quality employees, both as Federal civil service but also in these very important contracting companies. Can you tell me a bit about your concern? What is your outlook for not just attracting but also retaining the people who are in your company now? Ms. GERDING. So thank you for acknowledging Overland Park. We actually supported the National Benefits Center out there for many, many years in Overland Park and Lee's Summit, Missouri. In fact, I have staff still emailing me and texting me regularly asking me to bid on the contract and please come back to work. So you may see me again. In response to your question, retention was a problem during this shutdown. I had one employee resign as a result of the fact that he was new to government contracting and just thought it was too risky for his family. I will say that because I am fortunate and come from the Washington, D.C., area, it is not as big a concern. The one thing that government contract is, is it will not make you rich but you are assured of getting paid, whereas other commercial businesses do not have that same benefit. So in terms of retention, I think that HeiTech Services won a lot of brownie points, if you will, with the fact that we put people back on the payroll. Another shutdown, I am not sure that I will be able to do that. In fact, the first thing I thought was when some of my employees said, well, you put those people back on the payroll so I was not concerned, I thought, yeah, but I do not know that I could support 160 people on the payroll for a long period of time. I did not tell them that but that is what I thought. So I am not sure it has a big impact. I think that Federal contracting is still a very secure place to be. Ms. DAVIDS. I appreciate that. And then just a quick follow up, or it is not a follow up directly to that question but something that you mentioned earlier which is education of the customers that you are servicing in the procurement process and what specifics are in and the terms of the contracts that you are filling. Can you talk a little bit more about that? When you talk about the customers, who exactly in the negotiation of that are you talking about? Ms. GERDING. So it is everywhere form the contracting officer's representative, the technical person in the Federal agency that we are actually doing the work for, all the way through the acquisition officer, the contracting officer. It just varies as to the level of experience and support. So you never know when you are talking, you know, you are talking to your contracting officer's representative on the technical side about the way things should be done. They call the contracting officer and we are sure that the contracting officer is going to support us by saying it is a fixed price contract, pay them. Instead they say, oh, no, no, no. You had vacancies on the contract. And we were like, oh, my gosh. So I am going to my attorney. I am incurring a lot of out-of-pocket expenses to try to figure out how to get back there without ruining my reputation with the customer or the contracting officer because I do not want to be seen as a difficult customer. So it is just, I think, time and education. Ms. DAVIDS. I am low on time so I am not sure if you can give me a yes or a no here but what I feel like I am hearing is that even in our procurement process there is a lot of education that needs to be done on the Federal civil service side around contracts like yours and probably others? Ms. GERDING. Yes. Ms. DAVIDS. Okay. Thank you. I yield back the remainder of my time. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. The gentlelady yields back. And the gentleman, Mr. Kevin Hern, Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Economic Growth, Tax, and Capital Access, is recognized for 5 minutes. From Oklahoma. Mr. HERN. Thank you, Madam Chairwoman. In true bipartisan fashion, I would truly appreciate you removing the President's name from the original title of the hearing today. As we all know, this, in true government fashion, we are talking about government shutdowns that have been occurring regularly for almost 40 years now. So today we are probably not going to solve the problem, but I think it really begs to understand why we have them. As a business person, as a person that has been in small business for 34 years, has been signing his paycheck on both sides for over 25 years, I certainly would be the first to acknowledge that anything that disrupts the normal process of competing with each other as opposed to competing with the Federal Government's regulations and overburdensome taxation, it is a problem that when we have something as extraordinary as a shutdown, regardless of whose name was on the front of it or why it was caused, quite frankly, many people, and one of the reasons I am here is because we seem to cannot do our job up here of just passing something as simple as 12 appropriation bills, we would not be talking about shutdowns again. So we could introduce all kinds of new legislation. We should just introduce a new legislation which I have signed onto which is No Budget, No Recess. You do not have to have a constitutional amendment. You do not go home until it gets passed. We will not even have these hearings anymore because we will all be getting paid in regular order and this will be a whole different place to live and breathe in. I know my business friends certainly would appreciate that, and Dr. Shapiro, there would probably be less to talk about in your world. But I would really appreciate that. Mr. Rowe, as someone who is highly involved in America's small businesses and you see a lot of different industries, I have a question for you. If you remember, since we are talking about what causes shutdowns, and more importantly, what causes the enthusiasm in small businesses or not, could you describe based on your thousands of businesses that you are touching, what drove the enthusiasm so highly, so quickly, in November 2016? About a 14-point jump enthusiasm on November of 2016 according to NFIB. Mr. ROWE. The Small Business Community was very enthused by the passage of the Tax Act. They thought things were going very well. As a result, we saw increased economic activity and involvement. I think the biggest problem we have now is that we had all that increased activity and a fair amount of it flows through the SBA's loan program. Mr. HERN. So, Mr. Rowe, if I may, back in 2016, not 2018. Mr. ROWE. Oh, 2016. Mr. HERN. Yeah. It happened to be an election year. Mr. ROWE. Yes, I know. What enthuses people? Mr. Hern, I am going to be honest and tell you that I think people are always seeking change in an election year and I think that is what they wanted and that is what they got. I think they were a little bit frustrated, particularly in the small business community with what they considered to be a low-growth economy. Mr. HERN. If I may, just to fast forward that, with the change in 2018 November election, there was a decline in small business enthusiasm, almost coinciding with an election, coincidentally or not. But as we go forward here I just want to ask you, I really appreciate certainly the two business people at the table talking about what we should do because I think that is what business people do. They look at the problem and they try to find an agreement or a solution how to move forward. And you are asking of us as members of Congress to stop this madness of repeating history time and time again. It is insanity. The two gentlemen on each end are describing what happens when you have these disruptions. And so the combination of all the testimony here is very important for us all to listen to and for us to take to back to our members because if we truly care about 70 percent of the job creation in America, we truly care about big businesses growth in the future because our small businesses are incubators for large businesses in the future, you would think that would be the most important thing in the world to drive this economy. This economy is found on job creation and business. You would think that we would take that back and we would vote accordingly to drive that economic engine. But you see quite the difference in that. And we were talking again imminent shutdown over other things that drive policy. So we have got to determine what is the most important thing that we are all going to work on in this small business and take back up to our respective leaderships to move forward. I will remind us all, the greatest social program in the world is a job. And there are two job creators up there. I am one as well. So I appreciate you all's testimony and I yield back the balance of my time. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. The gentleman's time has expired. And now I recognize Mr. Jared Golden. He is the Chairman of the Subcommittee on Contracting and Infrastructure. Mr. GOLDEN. Thank you, Madam Chair. The first thing I want to say is to Ms. Gerding. You know, coming out of the Marines and seeing your background in the Navy, I am not surprised to hear that just a couple weeks into this you and the people that help you run your business instinctually knew that you had to do something to do to help take care of your workers so you put them back on the payroll. One of the things that this shutdown I think impressed upon me in my first few weeks in Congress is that when we fail to provide that kind of leadership in Congress, that is one of the embarrassing things about it is people like you have to step up and fill that leadership gap and I think that is also one of the positives. We see that we have got people like you out there running businesses and taking care of workers. So thank you very much for that. In looking here at your testimony, there is a bullet here about financial impact to business. And you noted here that you are operating off a budget that is predicated on an expected budget. And you noted a deficit in indirect expenses of about $100,000. My folks back home run a small business. It is not as big as yours. It is very small. One hundred thousand dollars would be a lot. I do not know what the impact is to you, but I am wondering if you could just tell us a few things relevant to steps you might have to take to try and get your budget back on track. Ms. GERDING. So we have already taken a look at that. The budget last year when we developed 2019's budget was based on a $16.5 million revenue stream. From that what we did was we had to reduce that to $16.25 million, about a quarter of a million dollars came out of our budget because the revenue is going to be lost from the company, which means we had to go back in to all of our indirect expenses and realize where we were going to reduce costs. I still am assessing the impact right now because we did have to go into our line of credit to use, especially at the beginning of the year when we are paying full amounts of FUTA and SUTA and all those other things that hit you at the beginning of the year. Plus, you have short months. You know, 28 days in February, et cetera. And then there is a number of Federal holidays that hit at the beginning of the year. So we will have to sharpen our pencils and reduce our costs throughout the company to make sure that we come in on budget, which we will do, but it does have an impact on everyone across the board. Mr. GOLDEN. Thank you. So there are some short-term steps that you are going to have to take on a longer term. Ms. GERDING. We are already talking. Yes. Mr. GOLDEN. I talked to a constituent back home who runs a business and contracts with the Federal Government. They noted that during the shutdown, GSA was not posting any solicitations for bids. I do not know if that is something that you also had to deal with during this, but can you talk a little bit about how that might impact either yourself or a business like the one I am noting back home in Maine in terms of their long-term confidence and business planning to deal with the fact that there is no solicitation of work for them to be competing for during a shutdown? Ms. GERDING. So that gets in, I mean, there is an impact based on the shutdown. There are bigger impacts that impact the small business community that are successful and grow outside their size standards and now all of a sudden they are playing with the big guys but they are only, let us say, a $40 million company and now all of a sudden I am having to compete with Lockheed Martin. With the government going to category management, if you do not have one of those contract vehicles, you are not going to play. You will always be a subcontractor to a large contractor. And then you are at their mercy to play whatever game they want to play. When I get a teaming agreement I am looking at it saying, this is unfair. I want that if you get the option here, I get the option here. And they said, look, either take it or I will find another company that wants to do the work. So I am forced to kind of negotiate like that. In terms of the shutdown itself, we were not adversely affected by the proposal process. What I was anecdotally told from another company was that the Acquisition Office was needing approval from another government agency. So it was a Department of Defense agency that needed approval from another Federal agency that was closed that shut the acquisition process down because that agency was not open. So that is going to slow roll that procurement and move it to the right. Mr. GOLDEN. All right. Thank you. Well, one last question shifting gears. Dr. Shapiro, I am just looking here at some data. This is Vistage Worldwide who did some work with the Wall Street Journal. They were making note that in 2018, economic confidence among smaller firms, actually downward, 14 percent of firms expected the economy to improve in 2019, but 36 percent expected it to get worse. Could you just talk a little bit about how something like a shutdown in the month of January might add to that kind of downward confidence among small firms in particular? Mr. SHAPIRO. I do not think that we have direct evidence that that survey was affected by the confidence. I think for the reasons stated by the witnesses at this hearing, it is very hard for businesses to plan. It is very hard for them to know whether to hire a worker. It is very hard to know whether to develop a new brew if the government approvals business depends on are delayed. So I can well imagine that many businesses' confidence is affected. Mr. GOLDEN. Thank you. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. The gentleman yields back. I now recognize Mr. Hagedorn from Minnesota for 5 minutes. Mr. HAGEDORN. Madam Chair, thank you for the time. I appreciate the leadership that you and the Ranking Member have shown on this and all your past work on this Committee. It is a pleasure to be here helping our Main Street businesses. Small businesses are certainly very important to the 1st District of Minnesota and all the people across the country, the small businesses, the job-creating backbone of our economy. And I appreciate the testimony of the folks here. I would like to say to Ms. Gerding, I appreciate you coming up. It was nice to meet you before the hearing. As a fellow Minnesotan, welcome. And I think that Congressman Oberstar, when he nominated you to the Naval Academy, knew what he was doing, and congratulations on that. And thank you for your service to our country. I have heard a lot from the witnesses about certainty, and obviously, when the Federal Government shuts down that is not a good thing for you. That is not a good thing for anyone. And we can debate on why that happens and so forth and what should happen in the future. That is, I suppose, the ultimate thing that in your line of work that we could do to create certainty is to make sure we do not shut down anymore. I get that. But when you look at the Federal Government and its impact on small business and our economy, there are lots of ways that the government can throw a wrench in things and have a lot of uncertainty across the board. I think what my friend, Mr. Hern was getting at is before the 2016 election there might have been a little bit of uncertainty on regulatory policy, whether or not we were going to have something like Waters of the United States or the Clean Power Plant, things like that would drive businesses to maybe look at things different and take a step back as to whether or not they were going to move forward. Taxation, obviously. Energy policy. Labor. Trade. You can go on down the line. I am drawn to the brewer in the bunch, so I will say to Mr. Butcher, how does certainty play and uncertainty? And what are you looking for from the Federal Government, the Executive and Legislative Branch moving forward, in general? Mr. BUTCHER. Well, thank you, Mr. Hagedorn. As far as certainty goes, in founding a small business and running a small business, you start up in an environment of uncertainty. You do not know exactly how things are going to go but you have to go with your gut and you have to do the best job you can every single day. As far as the government giving us more of a level of certainty, we are in a highly-regulated industry and I accepted that when we decided to get into the brewing industry. We are regulated by the TTB at the Federal level. We are regulated by the FDA at the Federal level as well. And so we accept that. But in order for us to function and introduce our new beers and keep our innovation pipeline alive, we need those services to be available. Unfortunately, the only aspect of the TTB that was operating was they were taking our checks and cashing our checks. But as far as certainty goes, by having the government running, by enabling the TTB to allow us to perform our basic business function at the very least would provide a better level of certainty. Mr. HAGEDORN. Sure. And I would say obviously we want your businesses to expand and you to be successful, but we want other enterprises to be created and people have ideas right now that they are thinking about and it is important for the government to have consistent policies so they can go to the community banks and others to get the loans needed in order to be able to show them the case that, yeah, this is what they are going to spend and these are going to be the costs for healthcare and everything else. And down the road this is how they are going to pay it back and expand their businesses and be successful. So with that I yield back. Thank you. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. The gentleman yields back. Now we recognize Mr. Marc Veasey from Texas, for 5 minutes. Mr. VEASEY. Thank you, Madam Chair. You know, there has been a lot of talk about how much money the Federal Government lost and our economy lost because of the prolonged shutdown. I believe the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Dr. Shapiro estimated that the cost of the shutdown of money that we will never get back ended up being about $2.3 billion. Does that seem right to you? Mr. SHAPIRO. That is a reasonable ballpark estimate. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated the effect on GDP for the year about one-tenth of 1 percent of GDP. GDP is a big number so it does add up. Mr. VEASEY. One of the things the President talked about last night during the State of the Union was the economy. He touted the economy. He talked about job numbers. Talked about how we are experiencing growth. And I wanted to ask you, you know, we are about to reach another government shutdown here soon if a deal is not reached, February 15th. In your opinion, if we do not reach a long-term deal, what would an additional prolonged government shutdown mean for not just Q1 but for overall economic activity this year? Mr. SHAPIRO. I think it would useful to dial back to how it felt the week the shutdown was resolved. Not only were businesses and individuals directly affected cutting back; it looked like the Air Transport System was getting tenuous, which is very bad for a whole range of businesses. Also, the shutdown revealed a myriad of details of how the Federal Government makes the economy run better. Granted, regulation is a burden, but also there are benefits to regulation. There is a reason why breweries have to take their labels to the government. The public expects that what is on the label will be in the bottle of beer, and similarly for many other food products. We have inspectors who verify safety and purity of food and beverages. There is a real partnership between business and the government. If that partnership appears to be breaking down, there is substantial risk of indirect effects that could be very significant for the economy. Mr. VEASEY. Thank you very much. And I wanted to ask Ms. Gerding, you know, we have heard a lot about small contractors, and I know in the district that I represent that there are just so many hurdles to people that are trying to start up a small business, people that own small businesses, and delayed pay, working on projects and not being paid in a prompt manner and how it can be a lot harder to find that capital to continue operating your business without that flow of income coming in, and I wanted to hear how your company managed through the shutdown if they are not receiving payments. I would be very curious about how you were able to work through that. Ms. GERDING. So we have not seen the impact yet because the shutdown occurred in December and January. So I do have lines of credit in place. I will say to your initial part of your question that starting a business is not for the faint of heart. And I have a lot of people, because I do a lot of public speaking, that come up to me afterwards and say I want to be just like you. How can I get my business going? What is your advice? And I said, are you currently working now? And their response is yes. I said stop working. Well, how will I take care of myself? I said that is what you are going to experience as a business owner. I said if you do not have enough money put away for 12 months to live on you should not start a business because as long as you are working you are not focusing on growing your business. You cannot do both things, especially in Federal contracting. Your customers are there during the day, not in the evening. And so you need to be out there, in their face during the day. So, you know, I anticipate a lot of these things that happen. I do not like to consider myself a victim by these circumstances. So we have to plan for these events. I am not happy about them. It erodes my profit. You know, but at the end of the day, our mission statement in my company is that we help the government keep Americans safe because of the work we do, and that is really what drives my workforce. They are not highly-paid employees. Many of them are Service Contract Act employees that make minimum wage. And when I ask them why they get up and come to work every day, especially in places like Lee's Summit, Missouri, supporting the National Benefits C enter for Immigration, it is because, Mrs. Gerding, I am helping keep Americans safe because I am keeping terrorists out of this country. And I am thinking, you open the mail. But they feel such a connection to what they are doing every day that that is what brings them to work. So I think that there has to be something other than the money. People have to be prepared for these events if you are going to be in government contracting. Mr. VEASEY. Thank you very much. Chairwoman VELAZQUEZ. The gentleman's time has expired. And now we recognize the gentleman from Florida, Mr. Spano, for 5 minutes. Mr. SPANO. Thank you so much, Madam Chair, Ranking Member. I appreciate your leadership and look forward to serving under it these next 2 years. I am grateful for each of you that have come and offered your expertise and testimony. I am, as was mentioned earlier, a small business owner as well, and I have owned my own business for over a decade now. And frankly, it is one of the things, the challenges that I was encountering as a small business owner was one of the things that really prompted me to run for office, to seek office as a member of the State House because I really did not feel like government really had my back, that government really cared about small business. There was a lot of lip service being paid to small business but there really was not a whole lot being done to help. And so I am glad for what the Small Business Administration has done, for what this Committee has done in that regard, and I look forward to serving you in an effort to help small business moving forward. I am trying to get a handle around, and maybe it was offered before I walked in, but I am not sure who among you would be willing to offer your testimony on this, maybe Mr. Rowe potentially, but the percentage of small businesses that actually directly contract with the Federal Government and/or have subcontracts that are directly impacted by government shutdown. Mr. ROWE. Well, Mr. Spano, I am just going to quickly rely on some information I got from my friends at the US Chamber of Commerce. I serve on their Small Business Council. What they put together working with Bloomberg.gov one agency spending data. They found 41,107 small business contractors and $2.35 billion in contracts at risk during the shutdown. I can give you this document. I am happy to. It has a breakdown state by state. In Florida, there were 2,359 contractors, small business contractors. Mr. SPANO. And thank you for that information. I guess what I am looking for is a comparison. I understand the numbers that have been offered, the total projected impact, but vis-a-vis those small businesses that do not have direct or even indirect contact with the government in terms of contracting, what are we looking at in terms of percentages? Mr. ROSE. Well, if you look at the Office of Advocacy, I think their numbers say they are around 27 million small businesses in the United States, but I think if you look at small businesses with employees, it is probably closer to 8 million. Mr. SPANO. Okay. And I did not major in math. That is why I became an attorney. So just in my head I am trying to figure out what percentage is that? It seems like, obviously not to minimize the impact, but it does seem like a fairly small percentage. One of the things that I do and have done in the last 6 years as a member of the Florida House, and I am sure we will be doing it here as well, is to balance competing policy interests. There is usually an argument to be made on both sides. Sometimes you can usually make pretty good arguments on both sides but you try and do the best you can to weigh those interests and then come down on what you feel like is the best thing to do. One of the things that I would be interested to hear about at some point, Madam Chair, in the next maybe few months, is the impact that illegal immigration potentially has on small businesses. The uncertainty that our inability to come to some long-term agreement on immigration reform. I would love to hear the impact that that has on small business because obviously that is an issue as well, and certainly, we are not going to, any of us disagree that that is an issue that is of concern, that has at least in part caused the shutdown. And so it would be helpful for me to understand the impact of that issue on small business. And whether or not that interest in the small business community's interest, the impact that it may have on them outweighs the potential interest that is served by having certainty with regard to continued government. Do you follow my line of questioning? And so I guess I have got 24 seconds here, but I guess would you acknowledge that that is an issue of potential concern, the uncertainty that illegal immigration causes and would it not be a great idea to have an idea at least from the small business community of how that impacts our policymaking decisions? Mr. ROWE. I would never say that there is not an impact from that. One of our SBDCs testified last Congress for Mr. Chabot on the impact that opioid awareness and the opioid crisis is having on small business. All of these things add up. And I think there are indirect impacts from a shutdown that go beyond the contractors and the subcontractors. If you just look at, for instance, all of the restaurants and other businesses that might surround a Federal facility, you would be amazed at how many lunches at a large contracting facility, if you have a restaurant next to it, that you are missing in 3 weeks. That is a big chunk of their business. It is all, you know, a big, interconnected ecosystem. Mr. EVANS. I thank the gentleman. I am temporarily filling in for the Chairperson. As you can see, I am not the Chairwoman. However, I want to make sure that I ask questions myself. I limit myself to 5 minutes to ask questions. What I would like to do is start off with my question that I believe is a discussion that is taking place right now at the Ways and Means Committee. I am honored to be on that Committee, and that Committee is holding a hearing today, The Focus on Improving Retirement Savings for American Workers. One thing I have been hearing is that many workers are not offered a retirement savings plan through private employers. Around 2 million people in my home state of Pennsylvania do not have access to a retirement plan through their employer. That is especially true for employers of small businesses. Due to obstacles these businesses often face them being able to provide employee benefits. Ms. Gerding, in your written testimony you discuss some of the financial impacts of the shutdown on your workforce. Can you explain how the shutdown impacted benefits small businesses offer to employees like retirement plans? Ms. GERDING. So we do offer a retirement plan. In fact, if you are going to be a government contractor, to keep up with your competition, you need to have some sort of benefits package. The really small companies, maybe not. But as you start to do more and more work with the Federal Government, you really need to have one. In our particular case, my concern that we are trying to pull numbers around is if an employee did not draw a salary during the shutdown, what did they lose in 401(k) contributions that they might have had coming out of their paycheck? And then what was the match that they lost that our company would have provided? We had a couple of people who had garnishments in their paychecks. So when we started talking about this with my HR person, what came to light was that they were going to have a reduced paycheck anyway. So let us say they were going to get $1,500 for a pay period. All of a sudden now, because of the government shutdown, they took leave without pay, it is now maybe $750. They now have a garnishment pulled out of that. They now have flexible spending. So we up front the cost in their flexible spending accounts at the beginning of the year, let us say $2,500. In January, they may have had something that they went to the doctor for. So the first thing we are going to do before we pay them is pull that money out of their account. So now when they are expecting about a $750 check, they are really only going to get, let us say, $350. So we are trying to assess the costs of that right now and what the impact is. But the biggest one that I can think of in terms of benefits if flexible spending. I was concerned about health care because our SCA employees contribute through their health and welfare benefit that the Department of Labor under the Service Contract Act requires that we pay. If an employee took leave without pay, they were not entitled to the health and welfare benefit. Those people, the company paid for their health care during that shutdown period when they were leave without pay. So no one went without in terms of healthcare benefits. And there is no discussion right now to pull that money back out of their pay. So health care a little bit, although no one was adversely affected, and 401(k), which no one has brought to my attention either. I am always concerned about being an older person, I want to make sure that the young people are looking towards the future and their 401(k). And do not match that match that the company is giving you, so. Mr. EVANS. Thank you. Mr. Rowe, the agriculture industry, which is critical to my home state of Pennsylvania, in total agriculture contributing $75 billion to our state economy, our ability to explore and promote our products in the global market is critical to not only our economy but obviously, the livelihood of individuals. In your written testimony you highlighted the challenges some of your clients face when attempting to explore goods and services. Can you elaborate on that, please? And what impact does this have on the ability of our small businesses to remain competitive abroad? Mr. ROWE. Now, when there is a shutdown, you lose access to the Census Bureau's assistance on export regulations and information. You lose the Commerce Department's support, the International Trade Administration's support. Our Small Business Development Centers, a lot of whom in Pennsylvania and other states form a backbone for the state's export program, then we are kind of fighting for the small business with one hand tied behind our back at that point. Mr. EVANS. I yield back the balance of my time. The next person who has questions, I think this will be the first time on the Small Business Committee, a brand new gentleman from the great state of New York, Mr. Delgado. You have 5 minutes. Mr. DELGADO. Thank you, sir. I am really excited to be here. I thank each and every one of you for your testimony and for taking the time. I really appreciate it. I did want to, as I heard one of my colleagues speak about competing interests and how there could be valid positions on either side, I would be remiss to not make the point that it is hard to have those interests compete in the absence of an open government. That is their role. And so I would just encourage all of my colleagues to understand that we need government for interests to compete. Otherwise, what are we doing? And for that reason it is simply inexcusable that we found ourselves in this position. And as members of this body, we cannot let us get there again. Now, over the past 34 days, I have held three public town halls and met with folks back home who are farmers and contractors and small business owners. We have over 27,000 in my district. And Mr. Butcher, I would also note that my district has one of the most breweries in the country. The impact is unnecessary, obviously, of a shutdown. In fact, one of our local cideries received a value-added production grant from the USDA but they could not receive their reimbursement for the equipment they purchased during the shutdown. Other farmers in my district are highly concerned about the H2B visa program and that migrant farmers will be arriving a month later than expected. This shutdown has created uncertainty as discussed and frustration from many in my district who are working hard to make ends meet. I think we have all heard the statistics. Seventy-eight percent of folks in this country living paycheck to paycheck. You miss a check, it is going to hurt. And it is simply unacceptable that we find ourselves in this position. So my question is for you, Mr. Butcher. In your testimony you mention the deep supply chain that brewers rely on. Can you talk about how the shutdown has affected the brewers and farmers you work with and what would happen if the Governments down again at the end of this week? Mr. BUTCHER. Thank you, Mr. Delgado. Our supply chain obviously is crucial to our business. We rely on our farmers. We work closely with them. We work directly with a wheat farmer in the Northern Neck of Virginia. And we plan with them our production schedule. And they plant their crops according to what our needs are. And we are fortunate to have a farmer who is able to work with us and who is able to scale up with us and continue to help us grow our business. And if we are not able to buy that grain because we cannot get our label approved because the TTB is shut down, it directly affects their small family farm as well. So they take this grain that they have grown for us and they have to figure out what to do with it. Do they send it to a malting house and try to find another buyer for it? Are they going to downgrade it and sell it as animal seed and make a much lower sale price on it? Or are they just going to lose that business altogether? We also contract 2 and 3 years out with our hop farmers. And these are farms in the Pacific Northwest. They are farms mainly in the Pacific Northwest, but we have to work with them 2 and 3 years out to plan our purchases of hops. And they also are putting the hops in the ground that we want to buy a year from now and 2 years from now. So there is long-term planning that goes on. And like I said, the last 4 months of the year we spent with our sales and marketing and our production team planning out the brewing schedule, planning out our new release schedule, and planning out our supply chain purchases as well. So that is really how it affects upstream with our farmers and with our suppliers. Mr. DELGADO. Thank you. That was very helpful. I yield back the rest of my time. Mr. EVANS. I thank the gentleman. The next gentleman I would like to, Mr. Kim, who is the Chairman of the Subcommittee on Economic Growth, Tax, and Capital Access, I want to let you know that I was the Ranking Member for that, so you see where I am today as a result of that. Mr. KIM. So you will have some good advice for me. Mr. EVANS. Mr. Kim? Mr. KIM. Well, I appreciate that. Thank you so much for coming and sharing your thoughts and wisdom with us. My district is very much a small business district in New Jersey. It stretches from the Delaware River to the Jersey Shore, and you know, this is an area where I constantly hear from people about their concerns. And similar to my colleague, you know, having a town hall, hearing about just the difficulties with deal with that political uncertainty. And I think for me, I come at this from an angle. I have been a public servant my whole career. I have been on the foreign policy side. Coming into this there is a lot that I need to learn, and I try to come into this job with a certain amount of humility to understand what is it that we can be able to provide? So when I am asked those types of questions at a town hall from a small business owner asking me, you know, what advice do you have for me on how I can best position my business going forward for these types of political uncertainties, whether that is government shutdowns or other problems, I wanted to ask that question to this panel here and just get your collective thoughts on what is it that I can do to pass that message back? What should I be telling small business owners in my business on how best they can try to weather some of those uncertainties going forward? I will open that up to anyone who wants to jump in. Ms. GERDING. So my advice is planning for a crisis. I think that every company should go through those exercises, whether they are a cybersecurity attack or a financial impact that hits the business, and how you are going to handle those things. If it is not a line of credit that you have in place and worked out a good relationship with your bank so that if you miss your covenants on that line they understand, especially if you are in Federal contracting. You really need to exercise and plan those events. That is the only way that we would get through that. Mr. BUTCHER. As a small business owner, when we were opening the small business, my wife's advice to me as we were planning was to not just have a plan B but always love your plan B. In a situation like this, it is not really, we have been at a loss. What are we going to do? And it is hard to put together a plan B when the basic functions of the regulators that you rely on are just not open for business. So unfortunately, I do not have a lot of answers. We are still waiting to hear back from the agencies now that they are reopened, but I guess my advice would be to find a way to keep the government functioning. Mr. KIM. Go ahead. Ms. GERDING. I want to add one more thing. There is something that my company tracks called the Z score. It is a Z score. And we evaluate our performance at the end of every month based on our Z score. And what that is, is a combination of looking at different financial factors and what the backlog in terms of how much money I have. If everything were to stop in my business today, how long can I sustain my business? And if business owners, small business owners are not looking at those kind of numbers and have 3, 4, 5 months of reserves ready to go, they are in a bad situation. Government contracting is pretty stable, but then you have these moments like this that are unpredictable. So when we look at our numbers, and we do a financial analysis at the end of every month, that is one number that I focus on is how many months could I operate if nothing was paid? So I think that is something that business owners need to start looking at is those numbers. Mr. KIM. No, that is right. I mean, this is helpful. I mean, first of all, it is just an unnecessary burden that is placed on small businesses for having to deal with the failures of Washington to be able to get their house in order. And I think not only is it unpredictable in terms of timing, but it is also unpredictable in terms of what services will be closed and which ones will be open. And that is constantly difficult especially when what I heard is small business owners that are telling me they do not have the time to keep track of everything that is happening and the political discussions about what is going to stay open and what is not and that they were trying to see, you know, what my office might be able to provide to try to help with some of that clarity. I am certainly interested in what this Committee and other institutions in our government can be done so that every small business owner themselves does not have to go out there and dig that information up, you know, every time that there is some moment of potential political instability. So that planning and that kind of information is key. Ms. GERDING. Can I say one more thing? Mr. KIM. Yes. Ms. GERDING. Industry associations solve that problem for me. I belong to the Professional Services Council, the Mid-Tier Advocacy Group, and the National Veterans Small Business Organization. All three of those groups are focused on government contracting. It is difficult to stay on top of every regulation that is passed up on The Hill here. What happens is they synthesize it and they force feed it to me in things that I need to know about on a regular basis. So that might be something they want to consider, is join a professional organization that will keep them apprised, whether it is the Chamber of Commerce or an industry association so that they do not have to try to stay atop of what is going on up here. Mr. KIM. I appreciate that. I yield back. Mr. EVANS. Thank the gentleman. I want to thank all of the witnesses for taking time out of your busy schedule. Your comments were very helpful. It is clear from the testimony today that the government shutdown had dire economic and real consequences on our small businesses, the SBA, and our workforce. As we look towards the next looming deadline, I hope we can all remember what we heard today and work quickly to find a long-term solution. I would ask for unanimous consent that members have 5 legislative days to submit statements and supporting materials for the record. Without objection, so ordered. If there is no further business to come before this Committee, we are adjourned. Thank you very much. [Whereupon, at 12:37 p.m., the Committee was adjourned.] A P P E N D I X [GRAPHICS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] [all]