A research team of the UJI offers modeling techniques that allow planning in areas such as pollution, epidemiology or safety



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## A research team of the UJI offers modeling techniques that allow planning in areas such as pollution, epidemiology or safety

31/10/2018 |
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The complexity of many of the human and environmental phenomena makes it difficult to adequately understand and predict their future evolution. The research group "Mathematical-statistical modelling of temporal space data and data mining" of the Universitat Jaume I, coordinated by professor Jorge Mateu Mahiques and involving researchers from disciplines such as chemistry, geology or computer engineering, has developed spatio-temporal statistics techniques capable of modelling complex phenomena and predicting their behaviour to draw useful conclusions or to make relevant decisions.

These techniques can be applied in any situation in which georeferenced information is used; that is, events that occur in a known place and time and whose statistical analysis can infer relevant data for decision making or planning in areas such as public safety, environmental pollution, engineering or epidemiology, among others. As professor Mateu explains, "The reason is that they develop mathematical models for predicting any phenomenon that fluctuates, i.e., that moves in space and time".

In the field of environmental management, the research group has designed a complete model of risk maps of forest fires, which incorporates both physical and socioeconomic variables with the aim of improving existing fire danger maps based on simulations. Thus, to the temperature, the accumulated precipitation or the wind speed, other variables are added, such as the type of vegetation, the proximity of existing roads or urban conflicts, which allows fine-tuning fire prevention.

Similarly, in the case of criminology, the integrated analysis of large amounts of data of different types (topographic, meteorological, socioeconomic, from the social networks, etc.) can help administrations to identify areas especially vulnerable to crime and, with this, allow a better use of the resources destined to maintaining citizen security. Professor Mateu explains that "it is relevant for the police, because without seeing the mathematics that lay behind, they have maps that show them where a crime is most likely to occur in order to try to prevent it".

The methodologies developed offer different technical advantages, such as the use of large amounts of data, which until now were not possible to use due to the difficulty of processing them with conventional techniques; the prediction of events through their modelling and decision making; a fast amortization of the investment in R & D + i given their low cost; or the adaptation to any problem posed, whenever georeferenced information intervenes. "We use the random phenomenon that we call 'stochastic process': it allows us to model more precisely these types of phenomena", says Mateu.

The research group has the necessary equipment and expertise for the integral approach of projects that contemplate the use of spatio-temporal data statistics, both from its conception through consultancy and technical and scientific advice, as well as during its development. Currently, his technology is in the implementation phase for the Colombian National Police and other police forces in Latin American.

Specifically, the team offers services to public administrations, both in the field of the exploitation of massive data and in the generation of spatio-temporal statistical tools for epidemiological studies, forest fire management, and evolution of atmospheric pollution or crime prevention. On the other hand, the team offers technological services to companies that need to exploit georeferenced information, such as multifactor studies of the incidence of traffic accidents and other accidents for insurers.

The research team is part of a joint European research group working with several cities in the United States and Latin America, where citizen security forces work with different city models adapted to the peculiarities of each one of them. Likewise, the researchers are part of the Eurocop Chair in Crime Prevention of the UJI, a pioneering initiative at the national and international level that allows joining forces for the promotion of research and innovation in this field, financed by Eurocop Security Systems and in which the Local Police of Castelló de la Plana has participated since its creation.

More information: <https://www.uji.es/serveis/ocit/base/grupsinvestigacio/detall?codi=145>

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