Professor Luis Viceira reflects on the current situation and interest rate expectations



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## Professor Luis Viceira reflects on the current situation and interest rate expectations

25/10/2021 |
SCP

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* [![ ponencia-Viceira IMG20211022172507](/com/noticies/2021/10/2q/ponencia-Viceira/IMG20211022172507.jpg)](#)

Luis M. Viceira, one of the most international Spanish academic references and a leading member of the prestigious Harvard University, has reflected on the current situation of interest rates and the expectations about a possible change of trend in the last conference organised by the UJI's Ciutat de Castelló Chair. The conference was moderated by the director of the Chair, Juan Ángel Lafuente, and presented by the vice-rector for Planning, Coordination and Communication, Modesto Fabra.

In his speech, Viceira pointed out that interest rates have not been as low as they are today since the 14th century, and that in terms of sovereign debt they are even negative in the short term, as in the case of Spain and Germany. In fact, the volume of debt purchased at negative rates has risen exponentially since 2016 and stands at around 17 trillion dollars.

On the other hand, he stressed that these levels are the consequence of an imbalance between aggregate supply and demand for savings. The oversupply of savings has been a consequence of the strong growth of developing economies, particularly China, which have increased their foreign exchange reserves earmarked for the purchase of sovereign bonds of developed economies, but also of the economic uncertainty generated by the financial crisis, which has boosted savings.

Finally, he noted that there are several signs of a turnaround in the near future. The ability of central banks to buy long-term debt will dry up, while inflation is picking up to levels not seen for decades.

Luis M. Viceira is George E. Bates Professor and Dean responsible for both executive education and online education. As head of the executive master's programmes offered by Harvard Business School, he trains generations of executives at the highest professional level, many of whom currently occupy the most strategic offices in the American and world economy.

The Ciutat de Castelló Chair is the result of an agreement between the Universitat Jaume I and the Castelló de la Plana City Council signed in December 2017. The general objectives of the Chair are the promotion of talent, training, research, dissemination of knowledge and innovation in the geographical area of Castelló.

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