Source: EURLEX
Language: en
Format: md

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| EVALUATION ROADMAP | |
| Roadmaps aim to inform citizens and stakeholders about the Commission's work to allow them to provide feedback and to participate effectively in future consultation activities. Citizens and stakeholders are in particular invited to provide views on the Commission's understanding of the problem and possible solutions and to share any relevant information that they may have. | |
| Title of the evaluation | Evaluation of the EU-Central America Association Agreement |
| Lead DG – responsible unit | Directorate General for Trade, Unit TRADE.C.3, Latin America |
| Indicative Planning  (planned start date and completion date) | Start date : Q2-Q3 2019  Completion date: Q4 2020-Q1 2021 |
| Additional Information | Insert link to the specific website for the evaluation or website covering the policy area (if there is none, put: – in the field).  - |
| The Roadmap is provided for information purposes only. It does not prejudge the final decision of the Commission on whether this initiative will be pursued or on its final content. All elements of the initiative described by the document, including its timing, are subject to change. | |

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| A. Context, purpose and scope of the evaluation |
| Context [max 15 lines] |
| The European Union-Central America Association Agreement [I](#endnote2)  aims at opening up markets on both sides, increasing the stability and predictability of the trade and investment environment and promoting sustainable development.  The EU signed the Association Agreement (hereafter “the Agreement”) with Central America on 29 June 2012. Part IV of the Agreement, covering trade, has been provisionally applied as from 1 August 2013 with Nicaragua, Honduras and Panama, from 1 October 2013 with El Salvador and Costa Rica and finally from 1 December 2013 with Guatemala. The Agreement is one of the first of a new generation of EU free trade agreements (FTAs), characterized by their comprehensive nature and high level of ambition.  Part IV of the Agreement (“Trade”) covers elimination of tariffs on trade in goods, a reduction of non-tariff barriers to trade in goods, services and investment (market access), and provisions on inter alia competition, government procurement, protection of intellectual property rights, transparency in regulation, and trade and sustainable development.  The rationale for the present evaluation stems from the EU’s Better Regulation policy, which requires every Directorate-General of the European Commission to undertake periodic evaluation of all EU interventions under their responsibility [1](#footnote2) . It also reflects a general commitment of the Parties to monitor the implementation and evaluate the results of the application of the trade part of the Agreement (see Article 346), as well as from specific provisions dedicated to a particular area (Article 293 under Title VII on Trade and Sustainable Development). However, the overall scope of the present evaluation is broader, covering all provisions in the trade part of the Agreement that are already provisionally applied.  The findings of the evaluation will be relevant to the ongoing implementation of the Agreement and may be used as a basis for discussions with the partner countries on lessons to be drawn regarding its implementation. It is also important to evaluate the trade provisions of the Agreement after five years, as the lessons learnt from its current implementation could serve as a basis for improving the design of EU FTAs being negotiated with other third countries. It could provide a valuable input for the implementation of FTAs that have been recently concluded. |
| +Purpose and scope [max 15 lines] |
| The purpose of the evaluation is to provide an evidence-based report assessing the impact of the implementation of the trade provisions of the Agreement. The evaluation will use the criteria of effectiveness, efficiency, relevance, and coherence. The evaluation will enable the parties to the Agreement to better understand the progress made and the challenges remaining in the operation of the Agreement. The evaluation will consist of both quantitative and qualitative analysis. It comes five years after the implementation of the Agreement with Central America.  The geographical scope of the evaluation will be the EU territory (as defined in the Agreement), as well as the six partner countries in Central America. The evaluation period starts from the provisional date of application of the agreement for each Central American country.  Thematically, the evaluation will cover all provisions of Part IV (i.e. the trade pillar) of the Agreement, except for Article 271 (criminal sanctions) which is not yet applied, pending the final conclusion of the Agreement.  The evaluation will assess the overall impact of the various elements of part IV the Agreement in terms of trade and economic impacts, social impacts, impact on labour and human rights, and environmental impacts. Gender-differentiated impacts will also be examined, to the extent possible.  The evaluation will consider the level of liberalization achieved in trade in goods and services through the removal of tariff and non-tariff barriers. For trade in goods, the evaluation will particularly take into account the progressive elimination of customs duties. The Agreement provides for liberalization of EU exports to Central America over no more than 10 years, with only a limited number of products after 15 years. Central American countries have excluded from liberalization only 1% of imports from the EU. Most imports from Central America will be fully liberalized by 2020. The most sensitive agricultural products from these countries enter the EU under tariff rate quotas. Considering that the Central American countries enjoyed preferential access to the EU through the Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) prior to the provisional application of the Agreement, the evaluation shall examine data not only compared to applicable GSP duties but also compared to Most Favoured Nation (MFN) duties, in order to capture the impact of the implementation of the Agreement [2](#footnote3) . |
| B. Better regulation |
| Consultation of citizens and stakeholders [max 10 lines] |
| The overall objective of the stakeholder consultation is to ensure that all relevant parties have an opportunity to express their views on:  ·the effectiveness of the Agreement with Central America to promote trade and investment and to contribute to sustainable development (including economic, social, human rights, and environmental dimensions);  ·its efficiency in relation to the resources used (including the existence of unnecessary costs and legal complexities in relation to achievement of the objectives);  ·the relevance of the Agreement with respect to the current trade and economic needs and challenges facing the EU and Central America; and  ·the coherence of the Agreement with the objectives of the EU’s trade and other external policies.  In particular, the consultation process will seek to obtain concrete examples, evidence and experiences that can complement the quantitative analysis. The aim is to gather material that will illustrate particular opportunities and challenges resulting from the Agreement. The consultations represent a chance to hear from all concerned stakeholders about where we need to focus our attention, and where more evidence and research is needed. A detailed consultation strategy will be prepared very early during the implementation of the evaluation.  The main stakeholders identified are as follows:  ·On EU side: public authorities at EU, member state and local level, the EU Delegations in Central America, EU Chambers of Commerce in the respective countries, businesses and business associations, labour unions, non-governmental organisations, academia and the general public;    ·On Central America side: public authorities at national, regional and municipal level, national investment promotion agencies; business and business associations, labour unions, non-governmental organisations, academia and the general public.    The main consultation activities will include the following:  ·A Civil Society Dialogue in Brussels (expected: fourth quarter of 2019).  ·A 12-week online public consultation open to stakeholders within the EU and in the partner countries is planned to be launched in the fourth quarter of 2019, accessible via the Commission's central public consultations page. The questionnaire will be in English, French, German and Spanish, while replies will be able to be made in any of the 24 official EU languages.  ·A targeted online survey intended for business users/interests, including those of SMEs. It is also expected to be launched in the fourth quarter of 2019.  ·Workshops gathering relevant actors from public sector, business, and civil society, in the Central American countries as well as more targeted consultations and interviews in Central America and some EU Member States (first half of 2020).   ·Interviews with SMEs (possibly in some specific selected business sectors) in the Central American countries and the EU, to capture their particular experiences.  ·Interaction with civil society advisory groups established under the Trade and Sustainable Development Chapters of the Agreement.  A synopsis report summarizing the results of the consultation activities will be published on the consultation website once all consultation activities are closed. |
| Data collection and methodology [max 10 lines] |
| In terms of data and methodology, the evaluation will build on previous studies such as: the Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) “EU-Central America Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment” of September 2009; the four annual reports of implementation of the Agreement issued so far  (COM(2015)0131, COM(2016)0073, COM(2017)0160, COM (2018) 728)); and relevant research and reports published by third parties.  An external study will be commissioned to gather information and evidence for the evaluation. The selected contractor will employ a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods. An appropriate quantitative model will be applied to assess the economic impact of the Agreement, using macro- and micro-economic data.  Most data needed for the evaluation is available from EUROSTAT and COMTRADE, as well as other databases. Qualitative data [3](#footnote4)  will be gathered through consultations, workshops, surveys and interviews.  The evaluation will examine whether and to what extent the potential impacts foreseen in the Sustainability Impact Assessment have occurred.  Case studies will help to make sense of the results of the quantitative analysis and may be used to respond to gaps in economic data availability. Case studies for selected sectors, products, cross-sectoral or thematic issues will provide an in-depth look at economic, social, labour and human rights and environmental impacts and will serve to identify factors enabling or holding back progress towards the achievement of the objectives of the Agreement.  . |

:   [(1)](#footnoteref2)
     This encompasses both spending and non-spending interventions. Non-spending activities include regulations, directives, decisions, recommendations, opinions, action plans, communications, trade agreements, etc. (see Better Regulation Tool #44).
:   [(2)](#footnoteref3)
     In the case of certain categories of products exported by some Central American countries which benefited from GSP tariff preferences which might have disappeared over time, the aim was also to retain (and possibly improve) the same preferential market access to the EU.
:   [(3)](#footnoteref4)
     I.e. information (about qualities that may be difficult to count or measure) which is not well suited to statistical inference. It includes factual and attitudinal information and opinions collected by means of one-to-one interviews, group interviews, online surveys, case studies, documentary analysis, and so on.

:   [(I)](#endnoteref2)

    Agreement establishing an association between the European Union and its Member States, on the one part, and Central America on the other, published in the Official Journal of the European Union L 346 of 15 December 2012, and to be found at: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv:OJ.L\_.2012.346.01.0003.01.ENG&toc=OJ:L:2012:346:TOC

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