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# 52012SC0183

**JOINT STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Space and the Arctic Accompanying the document JOINT COMMUNICATION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL Developing a European Union Policy towards the Arctic Region: progress since 2008 and next steps /\* SWD/2012/0183 final \*/**

  

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1........... Introduction.................................................................................................................... 2

2........... Navigation...................................................................................................................... 6

3........... Monitoring...................................................................................................................... 7

3.1........ Global Monitoring for Environment
and Security (GMES)................................................ 7

3.2........ Climate........................................................................................................................... 8

3.3........ Monitoring - meteorology............................................................................................. 10

3.4........ Monitoring - vessels...................................................................................................... 10

3.4.1..... ESA EC coordination................................................................................................... 10

3.4.2..... Preparatory Action for Integrated
Maritime Policy......................................................... 10

3.4.3. ... Possibility of mounting AIS
receivers on medium orbit satellites...................................... 11

3.4.4..... European Space Agency Programmes........................................................................... 11

3.4.5..... Possibility of mounting AIS
receiver on Sentinel-1B....................................................... 11

3.4.6..... Increase of AIS offer.................................................................................................... 11

3.5........ Monitoring –contribution to
Sustained Arctic Observing Networks (SAON).................. 12

3.6........ Monitoring - data access............................................................................................... 12

3.7........ Monitoring- pollution.................................................................................................... 13

3.8........ Monitoring - research................................................................................................... 13

3.8.1..... Sea ice......................................................................................................................... 14

3.8.2..... Snow cover.................................................................................................................. 15

3.8.3..... Glaciers........................................................................................................................ 15

3.8.4..... Lake and river ice......................................................................................................... 15

3.8.5..... Permafrost.................................................................................................................... 15

3.8.6..... Svalbard....................................................................................................................... 15

3.9........ Communication............................................................................................................. 16

3.9.1..... Demand....................................................................................................................... 16

3.9.2..... Current capacity........................................................................................................... 16

3.9.3..... Ongoing initiatives in the United States, Canada, Russia and China................................. 16

3.9.3.1.. United States................................................................................................................ 16

3.9.1.2.. Canada and Russia....................................................................................................... 17

3.9.3.3.. China........................................................................................................................... 17

3.9.4..... European needs............................................................................................................ 17

3.9.5..... European options.......................................................................................................... 18

3.10...... Decision support and early
warnings.............................................................................. 19

3.11...... Standards..................................................................................................................... 20

4........... Conclusions.................................................................................................................. 21

5........... Next steps.................................................................................................................... 22

6........... Glossary....................................................................................................................... 23

Appendix: Cost of European contribution to
monitoring the Arctic................................................ 26

Envisat... .................................................................................................................................... 26

Cryosat. .................................................................................................................................... 27

GMES... .................................................................................................................................... 27

Summary.................................................................................................................................... 28

This document is a European Commission and EEAS staff
working document for information purposes. It does not represent an official
position of the Commission and of the EEAS on this issue, nor does it
anticipate such a position.

1.           Introduction

The remoteness, low population density, marked
seasonal variability[1] and harsh meteorological
conditions in the Arctic mean that Earth-orbiting satellites are essential
tools for communication, navigation and observation in the region.

With the entry into force of the “Lisbon
Treaty”, article 189 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union confers
to the European Union a shared space competence which it pursues alongside that
of the Member States. It is the basis for the definition of a EU Space policy[2]
of which the two flagships are Galileo, the European GNSS, and GMES, the
European Earth monitoring programme. Space research and developments activities
are funded under the space theme of the Seventh Framework Programme for
research.

The European Space Agency (ESA), established in
1975, is an intergovernmental organisation currently with 18 member states. Its
purpose is to provide for, and to promote, for exclusively peaceful purposes,
cooperation among European States in space research and technology and their
space applications, with a view to their being used for scientific purposes and
for operational space applications systems

A Space and the Arctic workshop was organised
on 20 to 21 October 2009 in Stockholm, Sweden by the Swedish National Space
Board and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute together with
the European Space Agency (ESA), EUMETSAT and the European Commission.

The workshop was held under the auspices of the
Swedish Presidency of the Council of the EU as part of a commitment to face the
challenges of climate change and increased human activity. It focused on three
themes: climate change and environment; transport safety and security; and
sustainable exploitation.

The aim of the workshop was to identify the
needs of those working and living in the rapidly changing Arctic and explore
how space-based services might help to meet those needs. Increased activities
in these northern areas are expected as a consequence of climate change,
technological progress and shortages of resources. Oil and gas production,
fisheries and shipping are expected to move further north. The workshop
investigated how space infrastructures could facilitate communication,
environmental monitoring, early warning, navigation and vessel tracking.

At the end of the workshop, participants agreed
a set of conclusions and recommendations as to how space technology could help
Europe meet its objectives in the Arctic[3].

This document is a European Commission interim
report, prepared together with the European Space Agency, taking stock of
current and future space programmes relevant to the Arctic region and assessing
to which extent actions have been addressed following the workshop. It is a
factual account showing that progress has been made in meeting these challenges
and that considerable benefits to the many interests in the Arctic have accrued
through collaborative programmes involving both EU and non-EU Member Statres.

2.           Navigation

Global and regional satellite navigation
systems (GNSS) for accurate positioning are now fundamental tools for safe
transport on land, in the air and on the sea. This is particularly true for the
cold, dark, snowy Arctic which has few other navigation and positioning tools.
Positions and timings derived from GNSS can also contribute significantly to
observations of the Arctic for scientific purposes.

The further implementation of the European
satellite navigation programmes (EGNOS and Galileo) was established by the
regulation (EC) No 683/2008 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 9
July 2008. The system established under the Galileo programme is an autonomous
global navigation satellite system (GNSS) infrastructure consisting of a
constellation of satellites and a global network of Earth stations. The
objectives of the Galileo programme are to ensure that signals emitted by the
system can be used to fulfill the following five functions : Open Service, free
to users, a Safety of Life Service aimed at users for whom safety is essential,
a Commercial Service with improved performance, a public regulated service for
government-authorised users and a search and resque support service.

Galileo is a global system which will cover
also the Arctic. The Galileo services will facilitate safe navigation in the Arctic, support search and resque activities and any activity requiring positioning.

The European Geostationary Navigation Overlay
Service (EGNOS) is an infrastructure for monitoring and correcting signals
emitted by existing global satellite navigation systems. It is EGNOS that will
provide the Safety of Life function for Galileo by providing warnings when the
signals fail to provide acceptable margins of accuracy. EGNOS relies on a
system of 40 ground stations in Europe and North and three geostationary
satellites above the equator to Africa to assess the accuracy of positioning
signals and transmit them to users. Since there are no ground stations in the
Arctic and since users above about 75ºN cannot receive signals from
geostationary satellites, EGNOS does not work in the Arctic. This will mean
that, under current plans, satellite information cannot be certified for
safety-critical applications such as aircraft landing in the Arctic.

The European Space Agency's GNSS Evolution
Programme's Arctic Testbed[4] will explore how EGNOS
augmentation services can be extended to the Arctic. Broadcasting via other
satellite systems, including non-European ones, is an option and will be
explored in the years to come. The Arctic Testbed may later also analyse the
requirements of scientific applications, including those related to climate
change, mainly for more positional accuracy.

3.           Monitoring

The Arctic sea-ice is being monitored by both
European and non-European satellites. Various providers use measurements from
these satellites to support navigation within their own national waters.
However no single provider is yet capable of providing satellite based near-real
time sea-ice information to ships in all Arctic waters[5].
Ships' masters must therefore switch between different presentations of
satellite-based ice maps as they move from one zone to another.

3.1.        Global
Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES)

Workshop Recommendation: "The European
Commission to ensure that proposals for future operational GMES satellites and
services, address the special needs of the Arctic (sea ice, icebergs, snow,
glaciers, ice sheets and permafrost"

GMES is the EU's Earth monitoring programme. It
is a long-term programme built on partnerships between the Union, the Member States, the European Space Agency (ESA) and other relevant European stakeholders. It
is also a programme where the EU plays an important role in international
cooperation through bilateral collaborations with other space faring nations or
participation to global efforts in the field of Earth Observation (e.g. the
Group on Earth Observations).

Since its beginning in 1998 the overall funding
allocated to GMES until 2013 by the EU and ESA has reached over €3.2 billion
for the development and initial operations of the services, and of the space
and in situ infrastructures.

The GMES architecture is based on three
components: a service component that delivers information in support of
environment and security policies, and two observation components (space-based
and in-situ) that provide the data needed for operating the services.

The satellites under the GMES umbrella that are
most useful for the Arctic are:

(1)
Sentinel-1A is planned for launch end 2012, Sentinel-1B
2 years later. These satellites have been developed to ensure operational
monitoring of sea-ice extent and icebergs within the GMES framework. Snow,
glaciers and permafrost were not considered within the original design
specifications for Sentinel-1 which will nonetheless contribute towards their
monitoring.

(2)
The Sentinel-3 constellation will provide useful
monitoring capabilities for the Arctic, providing global land and ocean
observations of parameters relevant to the Arctic such as sea-surface temperature
and topography, snow extent and sea-ice thickness. The capability to monitor
sea-ice thickness will be based on experience from the CryoSat research
satellite (see below) and, providing the appropriate infrastructure is set up,
will allow near real time monitoring of this parameter for the first time. The
first of the two Sentinel-3 satellites is planned for launch in 2013.

GMES services can be divided between core
services and downstream services that add value to the core services. It is
intended that there should be six core services - emergency management, land,
marine, atmosphere, climate change and security.

The MyOcean project, funded under the Seventh
Framework Programme, is delivering a prototype marine core service. It includes
an 11-16km resolution model providing forecasts 10 days ahead.

Other components of GMES, whilst not
particularly developed for cold regions, nevertheless contribute to
understanding the Arctic. The Sentinel-4 and Sentinel-5 missions are dedicated
to monitoring the composition of the atmosphere for GMES Atmosphere Services.
Both missions will be carried on meteorological satellites operated by Eumetsat
and could contribute to monitoring the trans-boundary pollution that affects
the Arctic. During winter 2009-2010 the near real time analysis and forecasting
system of the GMES Atmosphere monitoring pilot service provided in depth analysis
of low ozone values including a comparison to previous years.

3.2.        Climate

Workshop recommendation "The European
Commission, ESA, and Member States to sustain continuous observations ensuring
long term data records to support climate monitoring. The European Space Agency
and EUMETSAT should discuss the possibility of joint programs with
international partners."

A new ESA programme, "Global Monitoring of
Essential Climate Variables[6]" has been set up to
extract measurements from satellite data archives in order to produce the long
time series of climate-relevant variables requested by the Global Climate
Observing System (GCOS), the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS)
and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC. Spatial
and temporal data for 13 essential climate variables will be delivered in the
first phase. This €72 million programme is expected to provide a significant
contribution to the understanding of Arctic climate change issues, including
measurements of glaciers and sea-ice. At least 3 out of the 13 variables
(sea-ice, ice-sheet and glaciers) are particularly relevant to the Arctic although sea-surface temperature and sea-level are also useful. There are also a
number of EU research projects on climate variables (see section 4.8)

A conference[7] was held in Helsinki, Finland on 16-17 June 2011, organised by the European Commission, involving ESA,
EUMETSAT and several national agencies to consider what
a GMES climate service could do over and above the GMES Sentinel satellites,
the GMES land, ocean and atmosphere services and the ESA programme on Essential
Climate Variables. A User Forum has debated the matter.
The consultation should lead to an operational capacity
for Climate Change monitoring.

A renewed cooperation agreement between ESA and
Canada provides the continuation of a framework allowing inter alia
coordination of satellite based facilities for the Arctic, including climate
monitoring capabilities. Examples are Canada’s current Radarsat missions and
the future Radarsat constellation.

ESA and EUMETSAT both support a request from
the Secretary General of The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) to
establish a Polar Science Space Task Group. This will ensure the legacy of
coordinated observations performed during the International Polar Year. The
Director Generals of ESA and EUMETSAT have nominated candidates accordingly[8].

The group is being formed with the support of
the Secretary General of WMO, and under the auspices of the WMO Executive
Council Panel of Experts on Polar Observations Research and Services (EC-PORS)
- with a secretariat to be provided by WMO Space Office. The group will have a
mandate to respond to requirements to support the WMO Global Cryosphere Watch
Program, to contribute to the Sustained Arctic Observing Networks (SAON)
initiative in the context of space-borne measurements, and to respond to the
need for sustained observations in support of climate monitoring requirements
originating from the GCOS Requirements and the IGOS Cryosphere Theme reports.

3.3.        Monitoring
- meteorology

Workshop Recommendation: "ESA and
EUMETSAT to review the coverage of meteorological missions and to identify the
necessary priorities and technical solutions for weather forecast"

Both EUMETSAT and ESA are monitoring closely
the Canadian Space Agency work on the Polar Communications and Weather (PCW)
mission. Following this programme from development through to operations will
provide Europe valuable insight into the benefits and opportunities resulting
from such a mission concept for providing meteorological observations over the Arctic. EUMETSAT is not presently considering specialist satellite missions of its own but
may consider distributing products from PCW. Studies are ongoing with ESA to
determine whether monitoring stations for an EGNOS extended to the Arctic could deliver atmospheric water vapour concentrations.

3.4.        Monitoring
- vessels

Workshop Recommendation: "The European
Commission to consider the needs of the Arctic when assessing the results of
the preparatory action on receiving Automatic Identification Systems from
space".

3.4.1.     ESA
EC coordination

The European Commission and ESA set up a
Steering Committee that regularly reviewed the results of the PASTA-MARE
project, was informed of the results of the ESA projects and checked the user
requirements that ESA had used as a basis for their design studies. The
Committee was dissolved at the end of 2010 following the successful completion
of the PASTA-MARE project and a follow-up began work at the beginning of 2012
to examine new issues. examine new issues, such as the planned initiative of
ESA and EMSA.

3.4.2.     Preparatory
Action for Integrated Maritime Policy

The project PASTA-MARE, was a preparatory
action of the integrated maritime policy. The objective was to assess the
performance of AIS sensors mounted on satellites.

The PASTA-MARE project produced a global map of
traffic density which is publicly available. However, since none of the
satellites involved in the project delivered sufficient data on the Arctic no actual vessel density data plots are available.

The project assessed performance of sensors by
comparing signals with signals from other satellites passing at the same time
and with ground stations. This was not possible in the Arctic because no
concurrent satellite passes were found and there are very few ground receiving
stations in the region. The project ended in 2010 before the data from other
satellites came on stream.

4.4.3.     3.4.3. Possibility
of mounting AIS receivers on medium orbit satellites

ESA recently concluded a study on a cooperative
surveillance system for ships based on a piggyback GNSS payload as part of its
European Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Evolution Programme.The
study concluded that a system for supporting the surveillance of ships could be
possible with payloads embarked on medium Earth orbit satellites. However the
large size of the payload means that a larger satellite platform would be
required and there are currently no plans to go further with this concept.

3.4.4.     European
Space Agency Programmes

ESA in cooperation with the European Maritime
Safety Agency, EMSA, has established a SAT-AIS work plan which includes
developments of key technologies, the setting up of a Data Processing Centre
Demonstrator and continuation of system design activities. It was approved in
2010 by the ESA Programme Board responsible for Telecommunications and
Integrated Applications.. An operational demonstration mission may also be
launched, possibly for a limited geographical area. At the same time ESA is assessing
possible schemes for establishing a Public Private Partnership (PPP) for the
development/deployment and/or operation of the infrastructure and provision of
SAT-AIS data to institutional and, possibly, private users. EMSA have completed
a study on "Space-based AIS User Benefit Analysis”.

3.4.5.     Possibility
of mounting AIS receiver on Sentinel-1B

It is planned that automatic identification
system receivers be mounted on board the Candian RADARSAT Constellation Mission
and the Spanish /PAZ together with synthetic aperture radar. This would allow
simultaneous correlation of ship positions with observations from the radar
images - the only waty to reliably find ships that have disabled their AIS
transmissions.

Studies are ongoing to determine whether an satellite
AIS receiver can be accommodated on the GMES Sentinel-1 satellites. While the
development of the first satellite (“A-unit”) appears too far advanced to
accommodate an AIS receiver, this might still be possible for the second
satellite (Sentinel-1 “B-unit”), provided funding would become available in
time.

3.4.6.     Increase
of AIS offer

A number of companies including Orbcomm, Comdev/ExactEarth
and LuxSpace are already offering a commercial service with AIS. Furthermore
the experimental Norwegian AISsat-1, launched in July 2010, was specifically
designed for the high north. Between them these satellites cover the whole Arctic. Because of the relatively low cost of the technology and the low shipping density
in the Arctic, and because revisits are frequent at these high latitudes, the
accurate (e.g. decollision issue) and timely regular monitoring of Arctic
traffic looks assured. However the performance still needs to be checked.

3.5.        Monitoring
–contribution to Sustained Arctic Observing Networks (SAON)

Workshop recommendation "ESA to check
the requirements of the Sustaining Arctic Observing
Networks (SAON) for measurements from space.

The newly established Polar Science Space Task
Group will have a mandate to contribute to the Sustaining Arctic Observing
Networks (SAON) initiative in the context of space-borne measurements, and
should therefore be concerned with collecting their requirements.

The Svalbard Integrated Arctic Observing System
will also contribute.

3.6.        Monitoring
- data access

Workshop recommendation 'The EU, ESA,
EUMETSAT and their Member States as well as other involved parties to support
and implement a fully open and “obstacle” free data access policy and
infrastructure.

The "marine knowledge 2020"
Communication[9] confirms the
Commission's policy:

The ultimate aim is to provide free access
without restriction of use

The GMES programme, once in operational mode,
will provide users with access to data and information from the dedicated
Sentinel satellite instruments as well as from GMES services. EU Regulation 911/2010
for the initial operations of GMES[10] foresees full and open
access to GMES data and information subject to international agreements,
licensing conditions and security restrictions, The GMES policy on data and
information will be compliant with the EU’s legislative framework governing the
availability of public and environmental information (access to environmental
information, PSI and INSPIRE directives[11]).

ESA has revised its Earth Observation Data
Policy[12]. The revision intends to
adapt the existing ESA Data Policy to the “Joint Principles for a Sentinel Data
Policy”[13], as approved by ESA
member states in September 2009. The revision of the ESA Data Policy aims to
provide open and free of charge access to the majority of the EO data provided
by the ERS, Envisat[14] and Earth Explorer
missions.

Data access to EO data provided by the ERS,
Envisat and Earth Explorer missions has significantly progressed from the data
policy principles laid out in the original data policy almost a decade ago. The
evolution of information technology systems supporting the data access,
particularly in recent years, has rendered the increased uptake of Earth
observation data possible. A growing number of Earth observation data sets are
available on-line and provided free of charge. Only a subset of data, for
technical or financial constraints, remains accessible in limited fashion.

This development reflects a common trend to
make environmental Earth observation data more easily accessible and freely
available subject to unavoidable restrictions, which is actively supported by
international initiatives such as GEO Data Sharing Principles)and CEOS. It also
reflects evolving user expectation as to the accessibility of Earth observation
data and the increasing demand for them.

3.7.        Monitoring-
pollution

Low temperatures and light-level mean that
ecological damage from any oil spill in the Arctic Ocean is greater than that
that would result from spills at more temperate latitudes. CleanSeaNet is the
European Union's satellite based oil spill monitoring and vessel detection
service operated by the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). It is available
to all EU Member States, European Free Trade Association (EFTA) States,
Acceding Countries and the European Commission. Satellite detection of
oil-spills requires short scale surface roughness The relatively flat Arctic
waters and the ice would make extension to the Arctic difficult..

3.8.        Monitoring
- research

Workshop recommendation "All partners
concerned with Research and Development efforts to address issues such as
monitoring of ice features, permafrost, biodiversity etc"

The CryoSat mission, launched by ESA in April
2010, is assessing the ability of satellites to measure ice thickness. Its
Synthetic Aperture Interferometric Radar Altimeter (SIRAL) has been
specifically designed for measuring ice thickness changes over time. CryoSat
measures the height of the sea ice above the water line, known as the
freeboard, to calculate the ice thickness. The first CryoSat ice thickness map
of the Arctic was generated from January and February 2011 data, as the ice
approaches its maximum. CryoSat provides multi-year elevation data at latitudes
never reached before by a satellite altimeter, determining changes in the
thickness of marine ice floating in the polar oceans and monitoring changes in
the vast ice sheets that overlie Greenland and Antarctica, particularly at the
margins where icebergs are calved

Although it is not known exactly how much has
been spent, successive EU Framework Programme projects have not only enlarged
our understanding of Arctic processes but also helped create a coordinated
community of researchers who share effort on common challenges. The ALOMAR
project which finished in 2008 provided access to a worldwide unique ensemble
of sophisticated ground-based instrument and a new service of in-situ
measurements through a rocket-launch "Hotel Payload" (HotPay). The
project DAMOCLES, which focused EU efforts on monitoring the Arctic, closed in
2010. The ACOBAR project is developing an observing system for the interior of
the Arctic Ocean based on underwater acoustic methods and the ICE2SEA Project
will improve projections of the contribution of continental ice to future
sea-level rise. The ACCESS project which started in March 2010 will provide
access to information on the current status and changes of the Arctic sea ice
including use of CryoSat information). This is meant on one hand as a baseline
against which to compare projected future changes and to maintain the critical
measurements that are needed to confirm and determine the trends in ocean, ice
and atmospheric change[15] .

A number of new Seventh Framework Programme
projects have started since the Stockholm conference. For instance the ACCESS
project will provide access to information on the current status and changes of
the Arctic sea ice (including use of CryoSat information). This is meant on one
hand as a baseline against which to compare projected future changes and on the
other to maintain the critical measurements that are needed to confirm and
determine the trends in ocean, ice and atmospheric change.

Other projects are devoted to testing and
implementing methods for calculating parameters based on the satellite
measurements.

3.8.1.     Sea
ice

The MyOCean project delivers near real-time,
forecasts and archived sea ice concentration, edge, type and drift at (10km and
60km resolution), surface temperature (1km resolution) and 3 dimensional
circulation parameters (12.5km resolution) for all of the Arctic ocean. It
delivers iceberg maps from the gulf of Boothia in northern Canada in the west to Svalbard in the east

MONARCH-A[16]will provide seasonal
to interannual changes in sea-ice since 1980

SIDARUS will develop new methods for
determining sea ice classification, albedo and thickness for selected regions
in the Arctic as well as forecasts for the Barents Sea.

MAIRES on developing algorithms for ice
classification, drift, thickness and icebergs for the Barents and Kara seas.

The NEWA project which is concerned with European
reconnaissance and surveillance capacities in Moving Target Identification
(MTI) has assessed the feasibility of a possible constellation of satellites to
support the. "Iceberg Monitoring and Surveillance of the north Atlantic
shipping lanes".

ESA's Polar View delivers near real-time sea
ice products at a range of spatial scales. High-resolution (100 to 500 metres)
ice charts are provided for the Baltic Sea, the Barents Sea and Svalbard areas. Medium-resolution (1 km) ice products are provided for Greenland waters,
while low-resolution (3 to 15 km) global sea ice extent and concentration are
available for the northern and hemisphere.

3.8.2.     Snow
cover

The MONARCH-A project aims to provide seasonal
to interannual changes in snow cover since 1980 whilst Cyoland will test
methods for measuring snow extent, snow cover, and snow properties at 500m-1km
resolution in selected European areas. Polar View provides snow extent and
fractional snow cover products in near real-time for major catchments in Scandinavia
at a spatial resolution of 500 to 1000 metres geared towards flood forecasting
centres and water management authorities.

3.8.3.     Glaciers

MONARCH-A will deliver changes in glaciers
(including the Greenland ice sheet) over interannual time scales since 1992
whilst Cryoland will provide more detailed estimates glacier areas and movement
of selected glaciers in the Alps, Greenland, and Svalbard. MAIRES will assess
glacier extent and velocity and intereannual variability for Russian glaciers.
Polar View provides maps of glacier extent, topography and velocity. estimates
yields from glacial runoff and model expected yields under different climate
scenarios.in northern Europe and Canada.

3.8.4.     Lake snd river ice

MONARCH-A will estimate snow burden and freshwater
runoff to the Arctic Ocean whilst Cryoland will deliver lake and river-ice
extent on selected areas in Northern Europe and Russia. Polarview generates
products on ice-type, extent, break-up and freeze-up dynamics on Canadian
rivers at a spatial resolution ranging from 10 to 100 metres

3.8.5.     Permafrost

The extent and changes of permafrost from 1950
to present in Siberia wil be estimated in the MONARCH-A project

3.8.6.     Svalbard

The preliminary phase of a Svalbard Integrated
Arctic Observing System (SIOS) was launched in October 2010. It is an upgrade
of the present infrastructure on Svalbard. that integrates the studies of
geophysical, chemical and biological processes from all research and monitoring
platforms. in and around Svalbard - land, sea, ice/glacier and atmosphere/space
base

3.9.        Communication

Workshop Recommendation "ESA to review
communication satellite coverage and determine solutions that can improve the
situation following priorities identified with all involved parties."

3.9.1.     Demand

The demand for data communications at higher
latitudes is following the increase of activities related to oil and gas
surveying and exploration, maritime activities, arctic shipping, search and
rescue, air traffic management, environmental management, tourism,
surveillance, security and safety. Data communication can also support
applications for navigation and positioning, as well as scientific purposes. A
number of user studies, including the Arctic Shipping and Marine Assessment
report[17] from the Arctic Council
have confirmed these developments.

3.9.2.     Current
capacity

Geostationary telecommunication satellites do
not cover the Arctic region at all or only partly with reduced efficiency. A
number of satellite constellations that are in a low-Earth orbit such as
Iridium, Globalstar, OrbComm and Gonets, are serving the Arctic with low
data-rate and/or messaging services.

There are presently no broadband communications
solutions available for defence or military users: all European forces
currently use U.S. systems.

3.9.3.     Ongoing
initiatives in the United States, Canada, Russia and China

Due to the need for general broadband access
and government needs (security, search and rescue, safety, aviation), the
Governments of Canada, Russia and the US are currently carrying out definition
studies for their own dedicated Arctic satcom public and government broadband
services.

3.9.3.1.  United States

Constellations owned by U.S. companies such as Iridium and Globalstar are currently being upgraded to their second generation.
Iridium NEXT will allow subscriber data rates up to 1 Mbps (contended) and
provide complete Arctic coverage. Furthermore, Iridium NEXT is planning to
offer high-speed Ka-band “opportunity” services.

Globalstar 2.0 is not sure to cover the
complete Arctic with their currently planned inclination. Like Iridium, the
system is U.S. owned, with a strong defence and government usage in mind. The
U.S. OrbComm system is also being upgraded with increased messaging
capabilities.

A highly elliptical orbit satellite system
offering broadband in the Arctic has so far only been considered at the level
of feasibility studies by the U.S. Air Force.

3.9.1.2.  Canada and Russia

An upgrade of the current Russian Gonets
(“messenger”) LEO system is being designed and would offer medium data-rate
communications to the Arctic, with low latencies enabled by inter-satellite
links. Furthermore, a new generation system called KOSMONET is on the drawing
table. This system can be seen as the Russian Iridium NEXT version.

The Canadian and Russian governments have
started to design their respective PCW (Polar Constellation for Communication
and Weather) and ARKTIKA systems. The Canadian PCW system will offer broadband
services only to the regions of Canadian interest in the Arctic, and moreover
to government users only. The Russian ARKTIKA system will offer low data rate
communications for government and aeronautical communications with a navigation
signal overlay, and broadband communications. The coverage is more extensive
than the Canadian, but for the moment mainly targeting government and
institutional use.

The Canadian and Russian systems enjoy support
from their respective governments, although the financing has not yet been
secured. There are indications that private funding could support an Arctic
initiative in both countries. The Canadian Space Agency has commissioned a
study to analyze the socio-economic benefits of PCW, which will inform Canada’s final decision on the mission. Russian state companies from the oil and gas sector
are considering public-private partnerships with ROSKOSMOS to move the Russian
system forward.

Discussions between Canada and Russia on the possible interoperability and harmonization between their systems have not
been successful so far.

3.9.3.3.  China

The next generation of the Chinese satellite
navigation system BeidouCompass-2 II system will have consist of 5 GEO, 3 IGSO
and 4 MEO satellites by 2012. To what extent Compass-II and/or Compass-III
(extension to a global system) may offer additional communication capabilities,
is not known at present.

3.9.4.     European
needs

Taking into account the developments sketched
above, it is therefore likely that a number of low and medium data-rate and
messaging satellite communication services offered by non-European entities will
be available to European users in 2015-2016.

None of the proposed Canadian, Russian and
Chinese systems are planning to offer broadband communication capabilities to
the EU area of interest, mainly because these systems are driven by their
respective government needs and have not taken into account European user
requirements.

A recent study from the European Space Agency
(ESA) on "Future Arctic Communications Needs" has concluded, based on
consultations with various stakeholders, that in the European Arctic the demand
for broadband communications could extend over 100 Mbps in 2020. Maritime
activities are considered one of the main drivers of the demand. The supply is
virtually non-existent, i.e. there is an considerable capability gap.

Demand in kbps in
Russian, North American and European Arctic (above 75 N). Source:
ESA/Euroconsult

In summary, taking into account all planned
developments, these will not fulfil the broadband communication requirements
for the EU area of interest, or allow independent European communications
capabilities at the higher latitudes.

3.9.5.     European options

The ESA Directorate for Telecommunications is
investigating how inclined-orbit satellites could meet European needs for
communication facilities in the Arctic.

One option is to push end-of-life commercial
telecommunication satellites into orbits that would allow coverage of the
European Arctic. Initial findings indicate that too much fuel needs to be
reserved to be able to raise the satellite to the appropriate orbits.

Another option is to combine forces with an
Arctic partner:

(1)     The Canadian PCW system might allow
the embarkation of a small European communication payload that could serve the
European Arctic. The ESA Directorate for Navigation (in cooperation with the
ESA Directorate for Telecommunications and the Canadian Space Agency) is
currently investigating the embarkation requirements for such a small
piggy-back payload by means of an industrial study.

(2)     The Russian ARKTIKA system – which is
built around larger satellite platforms - would also allow for the embarkation
of additional payloads that could provide European coverage and serve European
requirements. The Russian system will also support a mission for Air Traffic
Management Communications. The ESA Directorate for Telecommunications is in
continuous exchange with ROSKOSMOS to identify possibilities for cooperation in
this area.

(3)     Within the EC Russia Space Dialogue,
ROSKOSMOS has offered cooperation in the area of a new low-Earth orbit system,
meant as an upgrade of the current Gonets system. The new Gonets system would
use inter-satellite links like Iridium, as would the follow-up KOSMONET system.

(4)     ESA is in contact with Iridium NEXT to
understand better the hosted payload possibilities and the Ka-band opportunity
service.

The satellites in the Canadian and Russian
systems will need to be replaced every 10‑12 years, and the
constellations foreseen are in addition each not fully redundant, i.e. Europe could offer to complement or make these constellations redundant, or offer
replenishment with European-manufactured satellites.

Navigation satellites in medium Earth orbit
might also offer a platform for Arctic Communications. In case the European
Union would embark on inclined geosynchronous orbits for navigation satellites
(making EGNOS similar to the Indian or Chinese regional satellite navigation
systems) a telecommunication payload could be added to provide coverage in the
European Arctic. A combined system could be proposed that serves multiple
missions.

In the very long-term, a new type of highly
inclined satellite orbits – possibly enabled by the use of solar sails – could
prove to be an interesting solution for covering the Arctic. Continuous
research is required in this area.

ESA is currently running a study that will
consolidate the user requirements for telecommunications in the Arctic for 2015-2020. ESA has also initiated a feasibility study for a navigation and a
communications payload as a piggy-back on the planned Canadian PCW satellite
mission. At the same time the ESA Iris Programme will assess whether satellite
communications for aeronautical safety systems based on geostationary
satellites are interoperable with systems based on highly elliptical orbits

3.10.      Decision
support and early warnings

Workshop Recommendation "Scientists and
operational users to continue dialogues in order to accelerate the development
of operational decision support and early warning systems"

In the field of crisis response (relevant to
accidental pollution, search and rescue and security crises in the Arctic), both the European Commission and ESA are presently investigating future solutions
in terms of services and infrastructures for European security actors in a
multidisciplinary approach. This work might contribute to the development of
new operational services and systems in the Arctic in the fields of Earth
observation, telecommunications and navigation. This includes the emergency
managament service planned for GMES that will contribute to European structures
such as the Commission’s future Emergency Response Centre (currently DG ECHO/MIC),
EMSA, the EEAS and the EU Satellite Centre.

The €600,000 PRETEAR project co-funded by the
EU’s Civil Protection Financial Instrument started in October 2009 and is
co-ordinated by The Norwegian Fire Protection Training Institute (NBSK) in
Fjelldal. PRETEAR will review the specific challenges faced by the region and
will compare these to the capabilities currently in place. It will simulate and
model critical scenarios and review regional compatibility. It will also
identify developments needed in training, mobility and cross-border
collaboration.

The European GNSS Evolution Programme's Arctic
Testbed will test whether EGNOS can be extended to the Arctic and thus extend
the safety of landing sites used in rescue operations.

3.11.      Standards

Conference Recommendation "Industry to
establish and adopt common guidelines and best practices to improve safety,
security and manage the environmental impact of their activities in the Arctic
by making further use of satellite-based geo-information products to monitor
operations in the fields of oil & gas, shipping and tourism.'

ESA organized a workshop on September 14-15
2010 for the Oil & Gas industry[18] which addressed the need
for a common set of industry guidelines and best practices in order to take
further advantage of satellite based monitoring capabilities. And even though
the workshop had no geographic focus, the Arctic was highlighted as one of the
next frontiers, representing huge challenges both with respect to operational
support and environmental monitoring. The recommendations for actions can be
found at the workshop website [19] at

An ESA study to investigate how satellite based
monitoring can be used for tactical navigation of ships in ice-infested waters
will also address the need for adopting the EO based products to international
standards for navigation like Electronic Chart Display and Information System
(ECDIS)[20].

An EU preparatory action under GMES, ICEMAR,
will implement a pre-operational service to deliver ice charting products to
the bridges of vessels.

ESA is continuing its work to investigate the
need for an EO based product certification scheme. The aim of such a scheme
would be to ensure that products based on satellite derived information is
produced according to a standardized set of procedures. A draft set of
documents for an EO product certification scheme has now been drafted and will
be discussed with the European Association of Remote sensing companies (EARSC).

4.           Conclusions

Three years that have passed since the
Commission Communication on "The EU and the Arctic Region[21]"
defined the objectives for EU policy and two years since delegates to the
Swedish presidency event on "Space and the Arctic" made a number of
recommendations as to how space assets could help to achieve those objectives.

Tentative conclusions are that certain objectives
can probably be met with existing or planned programmes:

(1)     Measurements of sea-ice extent, useful
for supporting human activities and monitoring climate change, are assured
through the Sentinel satellites of the GMES Space Component.

(2)     Earth Observation based services
providing sea-ice information for navigation are being provided by a multitude
of European national and private entities. A number of new services are also
being tested under research programmes. However these currently only covering
discrete national areas of interest.

(3)     Up to now satellites have not been
able to measure ice thickness accurately enough for safe operations on
multi-year sea-ice. The experimental satellite, CryoSat-2, launched in 2010, is
now able to measure changes in the thickness of the polar ice sheets and
floating sea ice for Earth sciences more accurately. Its Synthetic Aperture
Interferometric Radar Altimeter (SIRAL) has been specifically designed for
measuring ice thickness changes over time. As of June 2011, the first maps of
ice thickness from January and February 2011 - as the ice approaches its annual
maximum – were produced. The altimeter on GMES Sentinel-3 will build on the
lessons learnt from Cryosat-2 in order to provide a long-term monitoring of
ice-thickness.

(4)     Low and medium data rate
communications should be assured through commercially-operated systems.

(5)     Because of the low traffic density in
the Arctic, effective monitoring of vessel traffic should be assured by present
or planned commercially operated satellites carrying AIS receivers. However,
this should be checked.

However, a certain number of gaps have been
identified:

(1)     High bandwidth communications will not
be available without further action. To address this in the near/medium term
some buy-in to Russian, Canadian or United States programmes is being
investigated.

(2)     High reliability navigation through
the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) is presently not
possible in the Arctic because of the inability of geostationary satellites to
reach above 75ºN. Broadcasting of the Safety of Life Service through other
channels is under investigation.

(3)     GMES services for ice extent have been
developed and demonstrated involving some Arctic user communities and national
areas of interest but have not yet achieved a complete circumpolar uptake. Services
supporting international trans-Arctic vessel traffic are still under
development.

(4)     The Sentinel-3 satellite will provide
more accurate monitoring of ice thickness than has been hitherto possible in
order to meet the needs of science. However ground infrastructure and systems
need to be developed to ensure that the data can be downloaded and processed in
time to also serve the operational needs of those living or working in the Arctic.

(5)     The relatively still waters and ice
cover make an extension of the operational European satellite oil-spill
monitong programme CleanSeaNet to the Arctic challenging.. Further study would
be necessary before extending the sevice to this region.

5.           Next
steps

The EU is fully committed to its Arctic policy.
The flagship programmes of the European Union, Galileo and GMES, the EU
Framework Programmes, and a number of space programmes carried out in the
European Space Agency will contribute to meeting EU objectives for the Arctic. Climate research and environmental protection in the Arctic, monitoring of the
ocean and ice, provision of satellite navigation in order to ensure safer modes
of transport in the Arctic all rely heavily on space systems

Not all space systems cover the Arctic, and some monitoring requirements are specific to polar regions. This region
therefore requires special attention. In view of the high costs and long lead
times for deployment of space systems, it is important to continue a targeted
collaboration between the European Commission, the European Space Agency and
Member States space agencies and to continue a dialogue with third countries in
order to identify capability gaps, establish synergies and identify potential
areas of cooperation.

This working paper can contribute to
discussions within the Arctic Council and amongst coastal States whose
prerogatives are recognised by international law as to how best to ensure that
the Arctic environment remains protected and that those living and working in
the Arctic can cope with inevitable future changes.

A follow-up to the Arctic Space conference
organized by the Swedish Presidency in 2009 was held in Copenhagen on 13 March,
2012. The recommendations were along the lines presented in this document[22].

6.           Glossary

ARKTIKA || A proposed Russian satellite system purpose-built to provide observation and communication services to the Arctic

COMPASS || COMPASS is the Chinese satellite navigation system that is expected to be operational by 2012

Cryoland || CryoLand is a seventh framework programme project aimed at developing, implementing and validating a standardized and sustainable service on snow and land ice monitoring

Cryosat || A research satellite operated by the European Space Agency and launched in April 2010, that monitors variations in the extent and thickness of polar ice.

EGNOS || The European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) system is an infrastructure monitoring and correcting signals emitted by existing global satellite navigation systems. It consists of Earth stations and several transponders installed on geostationary satellites It reports on the reliability and accuracy of signals.

EMSA || European Maritime Safety Agency. EU Agency based in Lisbon. Portugal

EO || Earth Observation; measurements taken from remote sensing satellites, airborne and in situ monitoring systems.

ESA || European Space Agency The European Space Agency (ESA), established in 1975, is an intergovernmental organisation currently with 18 member states. Headquartered in Paris, ESA has a staff of more than 2,000 with an annual budget of about €3.99 billion (2011) ESA's purpose is to provide for, and to promote, for exclusively peaceful purposes, cooperation among European States in space research and technology and their space applications, with a view to their being used for scientific purposes and for operational space applications systems

EUMETSAT || European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites Its objective is to provide, from space, information that can be used in weather forecasting and climate applications

FP7 || The EU's Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development, covers the period 2007 to 2013. €1.43 billion is dedicated to space.

Galileo || The system established under the Galileo programme is an autonomous global navigation satellite system (GNSS) infrastructure consisting of a constellation of satellites and a global network of Earth stations.

GCOS || Global Climate Observing System. GCOS is an organization, co-sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and International Council for Science (ICSU), established with the aim of ensuring that observations and information needed to address climate-related issues are obtained and made available to all potential users.)

GEO || The Group on Earth Observations is coordinating efforts to build a Global Earth Observation System of Systems, or GEOSS.

GEOSS || The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) is a coordinating and integrating network of Earth observing and information systems, contributed on a voluntary basis by Members and Participating Organizations of the intergovernmental Group on Earth Observations (GEO). The vision for GEOSS is to realize a future wherein decisions and actions for the benefit of humankind are informed by coordinated, comprehensive and sustained Earth observations and information..

GLONASS || A satellite navigation system operated by the Russian Federal Space Agency,.

GMES || GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security) is the European Earth monitoring programme for the collection, assimilation and production of information about planet Earth’s physical, chemical and biological systems.

GNSS || Global Navigation Satellite System. The generic term for systems such as GPS, Galileo, COMPASS and GLONASS.

GPS || The Global Positioning System (GPS) is the United States space-based global navigation satellite system (GNSS)

ICEMAR || GMES preparatory action aiming to deliver ice maps to the bridges of ships

ICOS || ICOS is a new research infrastructure to decipher the greenhouse gas balance of Europe and adjacent regions. ICOS will provide the long-term observations required to understand the present state and predict future behaviour of the global carbon cycle and greenhouse gas emissions and to monitor and assess the effectiveness of carbon sequestration and/or greenhouse gases emission reduction activities on global atmospheric composition levels, including attribution of sources and sinks by region and sector.

IGOS || Integrated Global Observing Strategy. The objectives and activities of the IGOS theme teams are now being pursued within the framework of the Group on Earth Observations - and the various GEO Communities of Practice

IGSO || Inclined geosynchronous satellite orbit. An orbit that carries the satellite round then Earth once every 24 hours but the inclination means that it is not geostationary.

Iridium NEXT || Iridium is currently developing, and is expected to launch at the beginning of 2015, Iridium NEXT a second-generation worldwide network of telecommunications satellites, consisting of 66 satellites

KOSMONET || Proposed Russian satellite system for communications between satellites and with ground.

LEO || Low Earth Orbit (160 - 2,000 km above Earth's surface)

MACC || Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate. FP7 project providing the pre-operational GMES atmosphere monitoring service.

MEO || Medium Earth Orbit (above low Earth orbit of 2,000 kilometres and below geostationary orbit of 35,786 kilometres

MONARCH-A || MONitoring and Assessing Regional Climate change in High latitudes and the Arctic - Seventh Framework Programme Project

MyOcean || GMES FP7 project providing athe pre-operational GMES service for marine environment monitoring service

PCW || Polar Communications and Weather satellite. A potential new Canadian space mission called which would provide 24/7 two-way communications capability to the Canadian north and near-real time meteorological information products about the north to government users throughout Canada

ROSKOSMOS || The Russian Federal Space Agency.

SAON || Sustained Arctic Observing Networks. A legacy of the International Polar Year. A process to encourage coordination and sustaining long-term observation.

SAT-AIS || A system that obtains information on ship positions by picking up signals from their anti-collision automatic identification system from sensors mounted on satellites.

UNFCCC || United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

WMO || World Meteorological Organisation

Appendix: Cost
of European contribution to monitoring the Arctic

European countries are making a significant
effort to monitor the Arctic from space, largely under the auspices of the
European Space Agency. Some of these satellites are multi-purpose, designed to
fulfil a number of requirements, so it is hard to identify exactly how much is
spent on the Arctic.

Envisat

Launched in 2002, Envisat is the largest
civilian Earth Observation spacecraft ever built. It carries ten sophisticated
optical and radar instruments to provide continuous observation and monitoring
of the Earth's land, atmosphere, oceans and ice caps.

The instrument most useful for monitoring the Arctic is the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR), operating at C-band which allows
radar beam elevation steerage and the selection of different swaths, 100 or 400
km wide. This can measure the extent of Arctic sea ice.

The total cost of the Envisat for the initial
5-year operation was €2.3 billion. Yearly operation costs beyond this period
amount to €50 million, with an expected lifetime extended to 10 years, giving
an extra cost of €250 million. It is difficult to know how much of the cost to
allocate to monitoring the Arctic since many of the costs are unknown.

A way to calculate the cost would be:

Where

|| Cost of monitoring Arctic

|| Total cost of Programme

|| Number of images provided to users covering Arctic region

|| Total number of images provided to users

|| Years of Envisat operation

These parameters, particularly and
,
are not readily available but it has been estimated that 30% of ASAR images are
acquired over the Arctic. The cost would then be €70 million per year.

Cryosat

ESA’s Earth Explorer CryoSat mission, launched
on 8 April 2010, is dedicated to precise monitoring of the changes in the
thickness of marine ice floating in the polar oceans and variations in the
thickness of the ice sheets that overlie Greenland and Antarctica. Its total
cost is €140 Million including development, launcher and operations (3 years)
of which €75 Million is for procuring the satellite. This comes to about €47
million per year. Assuming that 70% of usage is for the Arctic, we arrive at a
cost of €33 million per year.

GMES

Up to 2013 financial appropriations for the
GMES programme have been € 3.2 bn. This is divided approximately as follows

|| European Union || European Space Agency || Total

Services and in-situ components || € 520 million || € 240 million || € 760 million

Space component || € 780 million || € 1 650 million || € 2 430 million

|| € 1300 million || € 1 990 million || € 3 290 million

The services component has largely consisted of
pre-operational research projects designed to develop and test solutions for
using satellite data for purposes concerned with environment or security. Both
“core” and “downstream” services have been tested. There are no estimates of
how much of the services budget has been spent on the Arctic.

The space budget has been spent on designing
and building the Sentinel satellites The space component of the Global
Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) consists of six satellites. Four
of these will be useful for the Arctic.

–
The Sentinel-1 series of satellites will provide
synthetic aperture radar data. Two are planned.

–
Sentinel 3 will provide ocean colour and
temperature and altimetry.Two are planned.

The total cost of these is:

Sentinel 1 A+B development + launch || €558 million

Sentinel 3 A+B development + launch || €637 million

Ground Segment development[23]\* \* || €191 million

Total one off cost || €1386 million

On top of that we will have the operations
cost, which today are estimated at €138 million/year for the total
operations of Sentinel 1+2+3. Assuming 10 years of operations, the total cost
is in the order of €2.7billion.

Assuming that 30% of the imagery is used for
the Arctic, the cost is €81 million per year.

Summary

Based on the above, a best estimate of annual
costs for the three satellite systems is:

|| total cost || years || annual cost || Arctic use || Arctic cost

Envisat || €2550M || 10 || €255M || 30% || €76M

Cryosat || €140M || 3 || €47M || 70% || €33M

Sentinel || €2700M || 10 || €270M || 30% || €81M

[1]               The sea-ice cover varies
considerably between summer and winter

[2]               See conclusions of the 4th Space Council
meeting

[3]               http://esamultimedia.esa.int/docs/EarthObservation/Statement\_final.pdf

[4]               Budget €4.5 million

[5]               Global pictures provided by EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility are of very low resolution and
not intended as an aid to navigation.

[6]               Also known as CCI (Climate
Change Initiative)

[7]               See http://ec.europa.eu/gmes

[8]               M. Drinkwater - ESA; and K. Holmlund - EUMETSAT

[9]               "marine data and observation for smart and
sustainable growth", Brussels, 8.9.2010, COM(2010) 461 final

[10]             Regulation 911/2010 of 22 September 2010 on the
European Earth monitoring programme (GMES) and its initial operations (2011 to
2013

[11]             Public access to environmental information directive
2003/4/EC, PSI directive 2003/98/EC, INSPIRE directive 2007/2/EC

[12]             Earth Observation Programme Board paper
(ESA/PB-EO(2010)54)

[13]             ESA/PB-EO(2009)98, rev. 1

[14]             ENVISAT's mission ended on 9
May 2012. However its rich archive of past images will continue to provide
material for understanding the Arctic for many years to come.

[15]             www.ice2sea.eu

[16]             See http://www.nersc.no/project/monarch

[17]             Arctic Council Arctic Marine
Shipping Assessment 2009 Report

[18]             Presentations can be found at
http://earth.eo.esa.int/workshops/gasoil2010/)

[19]             http://earth.eo.esa.int/workshops/gasoil2010/Final\_Report.html

[20]             http://www.eomd.esa.int/contracts/contract325.asp

[21]             The European Union And The Arctic Region Brussels, 20.11.2008,
COM(2008) 763 final

[22]             http://www.esa.int/esaEO/SEM1WRAYLZG\_index\_0.html

[23]             cost for developing the whole ground segment not
specific to any sentinel satellite

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