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COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES

Brussels, 10.0 M 990

COM(96) 332 i-> al

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION

**"INVENTING TOMORROW"**
**Europe's research at the service of its people**

**"INVENTING TOMORROW"**
**Europe's research at the service of its people**

"... _apart from generating new knowledge, we would like science to_ _contribute_
_to general well-being and social balance. We want to see scientific progress and_
_innovation making a major contribution to Europe's future ..."_

_European Research Ministers,_ _1996_

The purpose of this document is to open a debate with the participation of Parliament, Council and all those concerned by
or interested in European research. The aim is to decide together the guidelines which will serve as the basis for a detailed
proposal for the Fifth Framework Programme of research and technological development, which will determine Union action
in this area as we move into the next millennium.

**SUMMARY**

_INTRODUCTION_

_I._ _WHAT DO WE NEED FROM EUROPEAN RESEARCH_ _AT_ _THE BEGINNING_ _OF_ _THE_ _21st_ _CENTURY?_

_1.1_ _General parameters_
_1.2_ _Challenges_ _and_ _opportunities_
_1.3_ _Main objectives_

_II._ _MOVING FROM THE FOURTH TO THE FIFTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME_

_11.1_ _Progress with the fourth_ _framework programme_
_11.2_ _Shifting the_ _balance_ _to improve the impact_ _on_ _society and_ _the_ _economy_
_Supporting basic research_
_Bringing research more_ _into line_ _with_ _the real_ _market_
_Doing more_ _to_ _exploit results_

_III._ _PREUMINARY PROPOSAL FOR THE STRUCTURE OF THE FIFTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME_

_111.1_ _Content_

_111.1.1_ _Priority topics_ _(research_ _at the service of_ _the_ _people)_

_Unlocking_ _the_ _resources_ _of_ _the living world and the ecosystem_
_Creating_ _a_ _user-friendly information society_
_Promoting competitive and sustainable growth_
_111.1.2 Horizontal_ _activities_
_Improving human potential_
_Innovation and participation_ _of_ _SMEs_
_Confirming_ _the_ _international_ _role of_ _European research_
_**111.2**_ _**Implementation**_

_Increasing flexibility_ _in_ _research work_ _and_ _the decision-making process_
_Ensuring more efficient management_
_Extending_ _the_ _range_ _of_ _instruments and means_ _of_ _coordination_

_CONCLUSIONS_
_Annex: facts, figures, trends_

**lA,**

_**INTRODUCTION**_

The world is changing ever more rapidly. Never before has there been such a

mix of trends, ideas and aspirations, feeding on each other and contradicting

each other at the same time. This is borne out by three statistics, all of which

were difficult to imagine even a few years ago. In 1996 there are now 18 million

unemployed in Europe, 1.3 million declared cases of AIDS throughout the world

and 50 million Internet users.

Everything seems possible. We now have a global economy. Ideas, like capital,

travel around the earth as fast as fibre optics and satellites permit. Every day,

shares for an equivalent of US$2 000 billion are traded throughout the world.

Increasingly, the value of products lies in their intangible characteristics.

Unemployment on the other hand is a very tangible problem.

Meanwhile, work continues on the institutional framework for Europe with the

opening of the Intergovernmental Conference which will determine the future of

the continent for many years to come. Research policy will have to play its part

as a force for integration and for shaping the future.

On a day-to-day basis, in a European society which is torn between moving

ahead and marking time, each individual is at the same time a citizen, a

consumer of products and services and a source of ideas and patterns of

behaviour. Locked into a society which depends ever more directly on the

acquisition of knowledge, individuals sometimes wonder about the impact of

scientific progress on their lifestyle and values.

There is no denying that the world has become increasingly complex. In order to

understand it better and to feel more at home in it, individuals require more

knowledge. However, the answers to many of the major problems now facing

society - growth and unemployment, and also health, the environment and

mobility - have to be sought in science and technology.

This is the purpose behind European research. It is not an end in itself but a

means of meeting common objectives. It is now time to change direction slightly

in order to put it in its new context. Hitherto research has been based largely on

technical achievement. The aim now is to make research more efficient and

increasingly directed towards meeting basic social and economic needs by

bringing about the changes which each individual citizen desires.

**/.** _**WHAT DO WE NEED FROM EUROPEAN RESEARCH AT THE**_

_**BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY?**_

Europe needs research and research needs Europe.

With the globalization of economies and trade, the only way to solve many of our

problems will be by bringing to bear the critical mass of Europe's own resources

and knowhow. Europe provides the framework for national and local research

activities and Europe is the level at which meetings of minds and

cross-fertilization of ideas takes place.

Article 130f of the Union Treaty establishes an original instrument, the **framework**

**programme** and sets out some general objectives for research in Europe:

(i) **to strengthen the scientific and technological bases of Community**

**industry;**

**(ii)** **to encourage it to become more internationally competitive;**

**(iii)** **to support other Community policies.**

Four types of activity are envisaged:

(i) research, technological development and demonstration programmes;

(ii) international scientific cooperation;

(iii) dissemination and optimization of results;

(iv) training and mobility of researchers.

These four activities are the basis around which the fourth framework programme

is organized. They correspond to areas where action at European level has

proved fully justified.

Now that it has established its identity, European research has a value of its own.

The sum is greater than the parts: joint projects, which are the principal way in

which it operates, are an investment with a strong multiplying effect in both

economic and social terms.

It is worth noting that in a recent opinion poll on _"Europeans, science and_

_technology",_ the citizens of the Member States supported research at European

level "... _for reasons of efficiency_ ..." (64% of those polled thought that "... _it is as_

_efficient as or more efficient than national research_ ..."), and considered that "...

_it will increase in importance_ ..." (79% "... _to the same extent or greater than at_

_present_ ...") and that "... _it corresponds with national interests_ ..." (69%).

/. _**1**_ _**General parameters**_

Before defining the objectives of the new framework programmes, it is essential

to consider three parameters which are all connected in different ways with

**added value,** which is the guiding principle of Community action:

first of all, the **time-scale** set for achievement of results makes it

necessary to re-consider the time it takes for research to find its way onto

the market and into daily life. For example, 78% of the revenue of the

computer industry comes from products which have been on the market

for two years or less. The research activities undertaken by companies in

the year 2000 will be aimed at the markets in the years 2003 to 2007 or

thereabouts. Community research must at the same time prepare for the

distant future and take account of shorter marketing lead times.

Second, research should be undertaken at **European level** only if it is

better done at that level than in the Member States or their regions. The

framework programme accounts for only a fraction of the research carried

out in Europe and is not designed to replace national research

programmes. On the contrary, research at European level has to rely on

sound national and regional structures, which make it easier for effective

cooperation to take place.

The idea is to **coordinate research in Europe** more effectively by

ensuring the compatibility, complementarity and general coherence of the

activities undertaken by the Union, the Member States and in other

European or international cooperation frameworks.

Finally, as with all public policies, the Union's research must comply with

the principle of **budgetary efficiency,** since this will be a permanent

feature of the planned move towards economic and monetary union.

There will therefore have to be a precise estimate of the critical masses of

resources which will have to be deployed and the results expected in each

area of activity, where as a logical consequence topics will have to be

chosen more selectively. More than ever before, European research will

have to make a point of being as **cost-effective** as possible.

The total budgetary allocation will have to be decided by negotiation

between government ministers and members of Parliament. To recall,

European research investment in 1995 amounted to 1.9% of GDP,

compared with 2.45% in the USA and 2.95% in Japan, where research

spending has been increasing by 3% a year over the last seven years.

Comparison with the major competitors of the Union indicates that private

investment in research in Europe needs to rise.

The level of research is a sure guide to the confidence of a country or

region in its own future. **Europe must "invent tomorrow".**

_**1.2**_ _**Challenges and opportunities (cf. annex)**_

Various studies and forecasts have been prepared (the Commission's _"Scientific_

_Indicators",_ the UK's _"Technology Foresight',_ France's _"Key Technologies",_

OECD studies, etc.) which identify the challenges and opportunities which Europe

will encounter as we move into the next millennium, and also the key scientific

and technical areas. As examples can be cited:

_**The problems facing society in the Union and the challenge**_ _**of sustainable**_
_**development,**_ e.g. the problems connected with the need for mobility (the
negative costs of traffic jams, accidents, environmental damage and human
health are estimated at ECU 250 billion a year), the ageing population and the
increasing cost of health care (the percentage of the population over 75 is
expected to increase by about 40% between now and the year 2010).

The concept of "eco-efficiency" - _producing more and better with less, whilst_
_respecting the_ _environment_    - points the way towards reducing the burdens of
waste and pollution, while at the same time providing the opportunity for
businesses to make considerable savings.

_**Market opportunities**_ _**and job**_ _**creation**_ _**in**_ _**Europe.**_ Many areas of technology
are expected to show rapid growth: examples are the goods and services
connected with environmental protection technologies, an area where certain
European countries are a long way ahead (the European water market will grow
to ECU 30 billion in the year 2000); the biotechnologies market, which in 1996
is estimated to be worth less than ECU 10 billion but is expected to grow to
between ECU 40 billion and ECU 80 billion by the year 2000. At world level,
there is a disturbing correlation between the loss of market shares in advanced
technology areas by European industry, the rise in unemployment and the
declining competitiveness of European countries.

These trends are not irreversible. Various studies show that, for example, the

rapid and widespread introduction of advanced communications throughout the

Union will add 3.5% to GDP growth between now and 2010, leading directly and

indirectly to the creation of six million new jobs. More generally, conditions need

to be created which at the same time encourage the development of high value

added activities, and support employment-intensive growth.

_**The challenge of the globalization of knowledge and Europe's place in the**_

_**world.**_ Two thirds of world advances in science and technology take place

outside the Union. Europe currently has 4.7 scientists and engineers per

1000 inhabitants compared with 7.4 in the USA and 8 in Japan. A new

development is that together the total number of scientists and researchers in

China, India and Indonesia is now the same as in the Union.

Three needs arise from these considerations:

(i) on issues of global importance (like climatic change and the emergence

of new infectious diseases), knowledge, investment costs and risk should

be shared;

(ii) in areas where Europe does not have expertise, it should be able to draw

on skills available elsewhere or have access to different environments;

(iii) Europe should bring its influence to bear as widely as possible (e.g. by

defining world standards) in order ultimately to capture markets.

**77?e** _**European innovation "paradox".**_ The Green Paper on innovation

highlights a mismatch between Europe's scientific and technological potential and

its record on innovation. For example, the total number of patents registered by

Japan under the European patents system is higher than the number applied for

by any single European country. In addition, it costs US$ 120 000 to file and

maintain a patent in 8 Member States compared with US$ 13 000 in the USA.

SMEs are a very important source of innovation. In addition to a small number

of high-tech SMEs (e.g. in the areas of software and biotechnology) there is a

much larger number of conventional SMEs which should be allowed access to

research work and results.

_**1.3**_ _**Main**_ _**objectives**_

Scientific and technical progress should pave the way for the opening up of new

areas, whether they relate to knowledge, ideas, products, processes or services,

in order to improve the quality of life for individuals and to help bring about the

harmonious development of employment, the economy and social cohesion in

Europe. It should also contribute to sustainable development and growth.

If this new political will is to be incorporated into the framework programmes of

the future, within the guidelines laid down by the Treaty, while supporting the

aims of Community policies, various requirements will have to be met.

It is essential to **satisfy** **the expectations of our citizens** for improved

quality of life, work and environment, by making systems, products and

services easy and safe to use within a perspective of sustainable growth.

If science and technology are to be accepted and adopted by our citizens,

research must be more comprehensible, more visible, and more accessible

even though modern science is becoming increasingly complex.

Research must have a **positive impact on employment and**

**competitiveness,** by being based on "... _non-material_ _investment in_

_human capital and R&D, innovation_ ...", as was emphasized at the

Florence European Summit in June 1996.

Some economists consider that technological change and the level of

educational attainment account for 80% of growth. The generation of new

ideas, which is a virtually unlimited resource, is an increasingly important

factor here and makes it possible to transcend physical limitations. Recent

studies [1] have shown that in the G7 countries an increase in research

spending of US $100 will increase GDP by an average of US $123. The

way to encourage the emergence of an innovatory tertiary sector, which

will create jobs, is to have high performance industries and services based

on high research intensity.

The **frontiers of knowledge must be pushed back** in a number of key

areas. This will require more than ever respecting the **principle of**

**excellence.** Working together the best research teams in Europe have

recently succeeded, by networking and by pooling their equipment, in

sequencing the yeast genome, which is a world first and prepares the way

for many medical and industrial applications. Europe must be a reference

and focal point for world science.

1 _International R&D spillovers._ European Economic Review, vol. 39, No 5, May 1995.

**7**

A more determined effort must be made to create a **favourable climate**

**for research and innovation in Europe.** The framework programme

must help the Member States to adapt their research and innovation

systems and make them more coherent.

Efforts must continue at **strengthening partnership** links throughout

Europe between scientists, industry, universities and consumers so as to

share out the risks, investment costs and benefits of research and to help

create a real European scientific area and single market. In this respect

it is encouraging to note that in some industrial programmes two thirds of

the partnerships established for a given project carry on after it has been

completed.

_List of criteria_

On the basis of these objectives it is possible to draw up a **list of criteria.** Now

that a measure of maturity has been achieved, the fifth framework programme

should provide the opportunity for choosing topics more **selectively,** by

concentrating on those areas where Community research can play a decisive role.

Each topic should be selected according to an optimal combination of criteria

under the following three headings.

(i) "Basic principles", in particular:

the value added at European level, with reference to the principle of
subsidiarity and the resources available;

the concepts of public **and** social acceptability, which ensure that
research is meaningful to European citizens.

(ii) "Major concerns", like those repeatedly proposed at European summit meetings,
in particular:

tackling unemployment, through the possibilities of creating new jobs, or
through a high level of employment in the areas selected for research;

competitiveness, by concentrating on Europe's real assets (for example
its knowhow, and its production and exploitation capacity), on the basis of
the priorities identified by industry and market development prospects;

helping to establish the **information society;**

promoting a model for **sustainable development** by improving living

conditions and reducing environmental damage;

**preparing for the accession** of new Member States from **Central and**

**Eastern Europe** and the **Euro-Mediterranean** partnership.

(iii) Support for **Community policies,** in particular through:

helping to develop policies for **agriculture** and **fisheries;**

defining the tools and systems needed for **transport;**

knock-on effects on the European regions **(cohesion** policy);

expanding knowledge and developing new techniques for **health**

protection;

developing and refining new **energy** technologies;

involving **SMEs** more in research and innovation.

**//.** _**MOVING FROM THE FOURTH TO THE FIFTH FRAMEWORK**_

_**PROGRAMME**_

The vast input already received for the next framework programme makes it clear

that merely continuing the fourth framework programme would not be appropriate.

The priority would seem to be to consolidate our research efforts. Secondly,

although it is worth persevering with certain projects and tried and tested

principles and procedures, [2] it is essential to incorporate new topics and new

ways of organising research. Attempts to shift the balance must be viewed in the

light of the initial findings arising from analysis of the fourth framework

programme.

_**11.1**_ _**Progress with the fourth framework programme**_

The fourth framework programme has been running for 18 months and is proving

extremely attractive. In 1995 more than 20 000 proposals were received,

resulting in 3 000 projects involving more than 10 000 participants.

It can be observed that the size of projects is tending to increase, including on

average more participants from a larger number of Member States, the rate of

renewal of participants is increasing (37% on average of which 40% are SMEs).

One area of concern is the continual increase in the number of proposals not

accepted: on average only 1 in 6 has received funding.

These preliminary figures clearly indicate a need for better targeting of calls for

proposals and for more concentrated efforts as a way of reducing the dispersal

of resources and the administrative burden. A detailed evaluation of projects will

accompany the formal proposal for a fifth framework programme.

Most contributions received from Member States and other bodies with an interest in the future

of Community research emphasize the positive aspects of the framework programmes, particularly
in the fields of industrial research, establishing networks of researchers and encouraging researcher
mobility.

Over time, apart from various "success stories" _(eg sequencing of the yeast genome, parallel_
_computers,_ _télécoms_ _standards, first demonstrations of nuclear fusion)_ it can be said that 100 000
partnership links have been established across Europe, which often lead to commercial
relationships.

10

_**11.2**_ _**Shifting the balance to improve the impact on society and the**_

_**economy**_

The new general policy guidelines to put research at the service of the people

can best be achieved by improving the bases of European competitiveness within

a perspective of sustainable development. This can be done by, at the same time,

providing better support for the production of new ideas, taking more account of

the realities of demand and reinforcing links with organizations which can help to

exploit the results.

_Supporting basic research_

Reduction in the period of time which elapses between "discovery" in the

laboratory and putting products "on the market", as well as the wider range of

inputs required for the development of complex systems, tends to eliminate the

old distinction between basic research and industrial and applied research. It is

now difficult to catalogue the discovery of a new computer algorithm or a

breakthrough in the sequencing of genomes, since the time between the

discovery of new knowledge and its application may be extremely short.

Consequently it is essential to maintain a research context which is open to new

ideas, for work on basic questions which may possibly generate new fields of

activity.

_Bringing research more into line with the real market_

Discussions of the framework programme have always touched on the distance

between research and the market and the difference between "academic" and

"industrial" research. This is how the idea of "precompetitive" research came

about, although its boundaries have become rather vague and in practice it is

largely ignored by the major competitors in Europe.

Competition, whether intellectual, industrial or economic, is one of the basic

driving forces behind research. However, three observations should be taken into

account when preparing the framework programme. First, research should now

be viewed within its world context; second, the spiralling costs of research and

development are now beyond the means of individual operators or even individual

states, which means that risks and investment costs have to be systematically

shared out; third, it is important to consider how results can be exploited.

**11**

Experience shows that we should be moving from research aimed purely at

technological achievement to research aimed at satisfying consumers by

providing high quality goods and services which are produced in an acceptable

manner at low cost and which are at the same time highly diversified and

personalized and rapidly available.

The need to involve users much more in project design, which is beneficial in

terms of meeting real needs, presupposes that much greater attention should be

given to demonstration and prestandardization activities. This will require varying

the level of support given, with appropriate transparency, whilst complying with

international rules on research aid and the Community framework for state aid for

research.

_Doing more to exploit results_

In previous framework programmes, not enough has always been done to exploit

results. Additional efforts are required in order to extend the relationships

between partners and networks so that results are better exploited and to ensure

that risks are funded by calling on a wider range of sources of finance, including

financial institutions and risk capital organizations.

The rules on intellectual property are closely linked with the question of

partnership and exploitation. They will have to be changed to take account of

technological progress, to provide more incentive for the exploitation of results

and to ensure that European interests are pursued at world level.

**12**

**///.** _**PRELIMINARY PROPOSAL FOR THE STRUCTURE OF THE FIFTH**_

_**FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME**_ _**[3 ]**_

Given the framework and list of criteria set out above, an initial outline can be

drawn of the structure and content of the future framework programme and of

ways of implementing it.

_**111.1**_ _**Content**_

Without prejudice to the final structure, the number of subjects has been

deliberately limited and the following three priorities can be identified along with

three horizontal activities.

**///.** _**1.1**_ _**Priority topics (research at the service of the people)**_

The focus is on the targeting of activities and the impact the research will have

on people's lives.

- **Unlocking the resources of the living world and the ecosystem:** The life

sciences and the environment are literally vital to people's lives and have an
especially critical impact on health. Europe must realize the full potential of its
scientific and technical assets in these areas, which are also promising in terms
of the growth of markets and the creation of jobs.

This topic will in particular cover the acquisition and utilization of knowledge about
fundamental mechanisms affecting human life, especially in the fields of health
and food. Emphasis will be placed in particular on the acquisition of fundamental
knowledge, the prevention of disease, (research on the brain and newly
developing infectious diseases) and the quality, safety and renewable nature of
bioproduction, while complying with ethical rules.

For the environment, the development of environmental regulations, tax incentives
and wider adherence to the principle of responsible behaviour call for a greater
understanding of the interplay between environmental factors and the introduction
of advanced forms of technology in order to safeguard natural resources, reduce
the use made of them and tackle the problems of pollution and waste.

By extension, this discussion also covers the EURATOM framework programme.

**13**

This highly interdisciplinary research could in particular include in-depth study of

matters relating to global environmental change, the basic cycles, natural hazards

and European ecosystems.

**Creating a user-friendly information society:** Europe has made a name for

itself by developing the concept of an _"information society",_ linking together

technical, economic and industrial considerations and the social dimension. The

very numerous applications to which it lends itself in virtually all areas of activity

underline its enormous potential for increasing the competitiveness of industry

and satisfying the demands of the individual.

The anticipated technological and industrial convergence between computers,

telecommunications and the media is now rapidly coming about through the use

of digital systems and multimedia. The non-material aspects of this development,

in particular the "content" of software, are especially important. The aim now is

to identify the research needed for an information society.

This research could aim at the development of technology, infrastructure, services

and applications that are interoperable at world level. It will provide the

foundations for very many jobs in tomorrow's world and will contribute toward the

decentralization and personalization of activities in a more competitive and

innovative framework.

The identification of and experimentation with these new concepts and tools will

give people easier access to information and education throughout their lives,

help people to share the cultural heritage and preserve linguistic diversity.

**Promoting competitive and sustainable growth:** This topic covers a range of

priorities which are the result in particular of various Community policies. They

have a major impact on the competitiveness of the Union in view of the

considerable number of jobs involved and their common feature is that they lead

to a reorganization of production systems in the interests of sustainable growth.

Conventional forms of industrial manufacturing as well as the design and

production of new products and materials will, for example, have to integrate the

notions of product "life cycle", lower costs, the development of standards, and,

more generally, "externalities", all of which have too often been disregarded in the

past. Services and intangible activities, techniques for the design, production and

management of complex systems and ergonomie considerations, all of which are

becoming increasingly important in the economy, could also be developed.

**14**

In the energy domain, priority could be given to the development and

demonstration of safe, acceptable energy systems which comply with standards

and environmental constraints and are competitive in terms of production costs

and the global economy. Research might also cover the rational management

of energy in everyday life ( e.g. the "town and home of the future"), as well as the

various options as regards the production and storage of energy with a view to

the medium-term and long-term.

As regards the mobility of passengers and freight, research could be directed in

particular at optimizing efficiency, safety, environmental impact and

competitiveness as these are all necessary to promote the quality of products and

services, to ensure their integration at the European level and to capture world

markets. Particular attention could be paid to the question of intermodality,

combining different transport modes.

In the agricultural sector, it is necessary to flesh out the concept of an "integrated

rural development policy". All activities in rural areas, including forests, could be

linked within an integrated approach, based on the need for competitiveness and

sustainability and ensuring optimum land use in these areas. New instruments

and systems to optimize and diversify production need to be developed, focusing

on complete cycles and sequences, multifunctional management (production and

ecological and social aspects) and links between activities, incorporating quality,

health, environmental and socio-economic considerations at all levels.

Lastly, in the fisheries sector, a multidisclipinary approach could be adopted to

shape the future of this industry and help to restore fish stocks to their normal

levels.

_**III.**_ _**1.2 Horizontal**_ _**activities**_

These activities will include two components: one general component designed

to meet common needs and provide general coordination, and the other

component related to the list of priority topics above.

**Improving human potential:** Greater effort is needed to improve the training and

mobility of scientists, including those in industry, and to encourage them to seek

scientific research posts in Europe. This would require the provision of

compatible training courses and equitable treatment of visiting scientists

throughout Europe, extending the communication and exchange networks

between laboratories and companies and granting access to major facilities, the

duplication of which should be avoided, while ensuring that new projects are

better coordinated.

**15**

The promotion of a European identity by introducing a European science prize (as

recently suggested by the European Parliament) and the qualification of

"European scientist" could be pursued. Better links could also be sought with

education and training policy mechanisms.

In a socio-economic context, action will be needed to identify social needs more

clearly and to improve understanding of the social impact of research work, the

changes taking place in European society and the diverse nature' of its

component parts and foundations, eg by increasing capacity for foresight and the

study of various scenarios resulting from the introduction of technology at work

and in the economy, education and culture. New organisational and

developmental models which may help to reduce problems of exclusion and to

achieve a breakthrough in the creation of new jobs might be analyzed together

with the most promising experiments carried out in this area.

**Innovation and participation of SMEs:** Access to all research and research

results by a larger number of "conventional" SMEs and mid-sized firms could be

facilitated through the introduction of a single, simplified framework and the

development of technology transfer mechanisms.

In parallel, following the guidelines laid down in the innovation action plan, more

attention could also be given to the ways in which results are analyzed and used

to the best possible effect and to the establishment of links with risk capital and

financial engineering mechanisms, as seen in the success of the NASDAQ. An

analysis could also be made of different ways of encouraging research.

**Confirming the international role of European research:** The following

guidelines could be implemented in line with the Union's political objectives

(particularly its foreign policy objectives) and the principle of mutual interest and

on the basis of bilateral or regional agreements, and decisions to start

programmes and specific projects:

_the direct, improved involvement of certain outside participants in_

_research programme projects._ Particular attention could be given to the

Central and East European countries in order to help with their rapid

accession to the Union, and to encourage them to become fully involved

in research. At the same time, for mutual benefit, greater participation of

the industrialized countries, the emerging economies and possibly the

countries of the Mediterranean could be envisaged.

**16**

_the_ _introduction_ _of_ _schemes_ _to_ _improve cooperation_ _at_ _European_ _level_
and _to make the_ _European research_ _area more_ _attractive_ to scientists

from countries with which the Union has beneficial links;

_the definition_ _of_ _specific international scientific cooperation_ _projects,_ along
with the appropriate resources, either on specific topics or relating to
specific countries or regions such as the Mediterranean, the CIS and the
developing countries, to support external policy objectives, involving
industry and European centres of excellence.

_III.2_ _**Implementation**_

With each framework programme, the question arises of the "dispersion" of

projects and resources. There is also the problem of incorporating novel ideas

that arise during the course of the programme and the difficulty of winding up

activities, each of which is of interest, de facto, to a particular group of people.

The time has come to be more **selective** about topics and to ensure a greater

**concentration** of resources. For it to succeed, this approach must be

accompanied by greater **effectiveness** in implementation while complying strictly

with the **principle of transparency,** especially in the project selection process.

The Commission will also work to ensure the **avoidance of fragmentation** in

Community research.

_Increasing flexibility in research work and the decision-making process_

The procedures set up over the years for the framework programme need

to be slimmed down, while retaining the defining principles of equality of

treatment and access and of transparency.

There is much room for improvement in the institutional support

arrangements. At the Intergovernmental Conference, the Commission will,

for example, advocate a **simplified decision-making procedure** for

implementation of research policy and specific programmes and for their

adoption by a qualified majority. Matters could also be simplified by

**reducing** considerably **the number of programmes** and the **number of**

**committees.**

It needs to be possible to supplement and adjust work programmes at

regular intervals in line with scientific and technical changes and policy

**17**

developments. In the event of an emergency, as recently with the problem

of "mad cow disease", there needs to be an arrangement for the rapid

regrouping of several areas of action around a single target, for bringing

together the resources needed and, where appropriate, for redirecting

effort.

_Ensuring more efficient management_

A slight improvement would seem to be possible where management

techniques are concerned. The Commission has called for ideas about

possible ways of **simplifying** internal management procedures and the

procedures governing external contractual relations.

A stated aim is to **shorten the deadlines** and reduce administrative costs,

e.g. when selecting proposals and concluding contracts, and when making

payments, a matter of particular importance for small firms and

researchers in receipt of grants.

The **calls for proposals** must be published on a regular basis, be

compatible with the working patterns of industry, research centres and

universities, and meet the requirements of sound management. Where the

procedures governing the **selection** of proposals are concerned, it would

seem to be necessary to explain the selection criteria more clearly.

Lastly, the need is being felt for some kind of **monitoring** tool with which

to measure, in real time and on the basis of objectives, indicators and high

quality statistics, the state of progress and performance of the framework

programme, **and a forum** (e.g. on the Internet) **for ongoing dialogue** with

participants in the Fifth Framework Programme and other interested

parties.

_Extending_ _the range of instruments and means of coordination_

The approach so far, which has very largely consisted of juxtaposing a

large number of projects (50/50 partnership for a project generally of a

modest size), should be replaced by a wider range of modalities and

financial instruments more appropriate to the various objectives, whereby

it is possible to establish closer links between Community activities and

national activities or between national activities on certain topics.

In order to be able to respond rapidly to the considerable pressure to allow

spontaneous proposals, to include emerging interdisciplinary research

topics (e.g. neurosciences) and to allow for the unexpected, there needs

to be some leeway, albeit strictly controlled in terms of decision-making;

The following instruments in particular are envisaged:

a small number of **horizontal programmes** with a strong focus on generic
technologies applicable to many areas, capable of giving rise to and sustaining
more targeted research topics not necessarily always specified initially;

_**"task**_ _**forces".**_ This approach is that of targeted research, open to all comers,
on unifying topics. Task force activities are a new concept introduced by the
Commission on an experimental basis with the fourth framework programme;

This type of research is based on the idea of placing advances in knowledge and
technologies at the service of central societal and industrial objectives, thus
meeting the three objectives of transparency, selectiveness and concentration.
In practice, the task forces are primarily coordination instruments for formulating
and monitoring the implementation of a limited number of new short-term
activities, for which priorities must be identified in close consultation with industry,
consumers and governments.

**instruments for encouraging cooperation between Member States.** To be
truly significant, European research must not confine itself to work carried out
together solely within the specific programmes. Depending on the genuine
desires of the Member States, the Commission is willing to promote this approach
on specific topics, making use of the possibilities afforded by Articles 130k
(supplementary programmes), 130I (participation in projects undertaken by certain
Member States) or 130n (participation in joint undertakings) of the Treaty.

Where thèse first three instruments are concerned, COST could be used, as it

was to begin with, as a breeding ground for ideas, while links with EUREKA could

be improved in order to direct the results of Community research towards the

market. This would necessitate closer interaction between the framework

programme and these two forums for cooperation whose strategy is currently

under review.

**19**

In addition, there is a need for more exchange of information and better

**coordination** between Community and national research policies and

investments. [4] Greater consistency would entail a competitive advantage and a

financial saving, enabling the Union and the Member States to focus more

effectively on their respective objectives.

to ensure that the framework programme is better equipped to provide effective

support for other Community policies, there is a need for a significant

improvement in the **mechanisms for liaising and interfacing with the**

**instruments of the other policies** so as to make these instruments

"interoperable" [5] with research and to make the Community activities more

effective.

International cooperation [6] and the Structural Funds are chiefly concerned. In the

latter -case, the aim is to encourage the Member States to devote a larger

proportion of structural resources to research in order to foster the rapid

development of their potential for scientific excellence and confirm the catching-up

process that has begun [7] .

the **Joint Research Centre:** the role and tasks of public laboratories are being

carefully examined in all the major industrialized countries. The laboratories that

go to make up the JRC should, similarly, be used for clear and ambitious tasks,

striving for excellence and focusing on a few aspects in line with new needs

emanating from industry and the market. It is necessary in particular:

to make available independent and impartial expertise to meet the needs

of Community policies and contribute towards the scientific basis for Union

policy decisions;

to ensure closer links between the institutes and the national and

international laboratories.

See Article 130h of the Union Treaty: _"The Community and the Member States shall coordinate_
_their research and technological development activities so as to ensure that national policies and_
_Community policy are mutually_ _consistent."_
Experience with the task force approach has shown how difficult it is to involve different
programmes (e.g. research and education programmes) in a joint call for proposals exercise.
Where international scientific cooperation is concerned, improvements are already in sight with
programmes such as TAC1S, PHARE and MEDA being opened up more widely in order to allow
the participation in Community research projects of entities from the countries concerned.
A communication on the relationships between research and the structural funds is currently being
prepared by the Commission.

20

The JRC needs to be given the organizational flexibility it requires to be in a

better position to cooperate with industry and users within a properly adapted

legal framework. The emphasis will be on utilizing the know-how and expertise

of the institutes' researchers and facilities, which in many areas are unique in

Europe, transfers of technologies, and industrial joint ventures.

**21**

**CONCLUSIONS**

The preparations for the fifth framework programme are taking place in a period

of rapid and far-reaching change. The critical problem of employment, the

increasing globalization of the economy, and the movements in progress in the

building of Europe (Intergovernmental Conference, economic and monetary union,

enlargement) introduce many additional factors in this exercise.

We therefore need to examine under a new light the rationale for European

research. If it is to continue to exist, its tasks must be more transparent and

visible, it must be carried out more simply, and its results must be more effective.

A first set of guidelines can be drawn. While maintaining the continuity of certain

recognized achievements, new balances must be established and the content of

research topics renewed in the light of the challenges and opportunities of the

horizon 2000+.

Basically, it is a question of moving on from research focusing solely on

technological performance towards research focusing on the citizen and the

response to economic and social needs.

In order to succeed, a strong political will based on consensus is needed. The

Commission invites discussions and reactions to these first guidelines.

Subsequently, it will be submitting detailed proposals to the Parliament and

Council.

22

## **Fact, figures and trends**

##### 1. Europe's position in world research 2. The European paradox 3. European research within the international technological scene 4. American and Japanese research efforts 5. SMEs, research and employment 6. Visions of the future and priorities 7. Society's needs and market prospects: some examples Sustainable development and the environment Biotechnologies Health The information society

##### i i

##### **1. Europe's position in world research**

The share of GDP devoted to research, expenditure by industry on research, expenditure on research per inhabitant, the
total number of researchers and of researchers in companies in proportion to the active population as a whole are all
lower in the European Union than their equivalents in the United States of America and Japan.

JAPAN

**104,069**

**2.95**

**833**

**19.7**

**73.4**

**526,501**

**8.0**

**367,000**

**6**

USA

**142,047**

**2.45**

**545**

**39.2**

**58.7**

**962,700**

**7.4**

**765,000**

**6**

Total R&D expenditure (million ecu) 1994

Total R&D expenditure as a % of GDP 1995

Total R&D expenditure per inhabitant (ecu) 1994

% of total R&D expenditure financed by the State
1893

% of total R&D expenditure financed by industry
1993

Number of researchers 1993

Number of researchers per thousand active persons
1993

Number of researchers in companies 1993

Number of researchers in companies per thousand
active persons 1993

EU 15

**121,882**

**1.91**

**329**

**39.6**

**53.5**

**774,071**

**4.7**

**376,000**

**2**

_Source: European Commission DG_ _XII,_ _from data supplied by OECD_

Observing the major indicators (expenditure on research, the number of researchers) for other regions of the world reveals
that the nations of the Triad are no longer the only players on the international scientific and technological stage. New
powers are emerging and progressively hoisting themselves up to the level of the most advanced countries.

###### **Main indicators for some areas of the world**

_**R&D scientists &**_
_**engineers (000s)**_

285.5

20.1

158.5

136.7

391.1

106.0

_**R&D scientists per**_
_**thousand population**_

2.2

3.8

0.3

1.5

0.3

0.1

Central & Eastern European
Countries

Israël

Latin America

NICs

China

India

_**Gross Domestic**_
_**Expenditure**_ _**on**_ _**R&D**_

_**( $ billions)**_

2.89

1.24

3.93

10.73

22.24

7.1

_**GERD/Gross**_
_**Domestic Product**_

_%_

1.5

1.9

0.4

1.3

0.7

0.8

_Source: European Commission DG XII (1994) European Report on S&T_
_Indicators; UNESCO; OST estimates and_ _treatment,_ _1995_

_UNESCO,_ _World_ _Science Report_

_lit_

#### **2. The European paradox**

**World share of publications in %**

1981 1993

EU 15 29 32

USA 37 36

JAPAN 7 8

OTHERCOUNTRIES 27 24

WORLD - Total | 100 | 100

Europe remains a major scientific power: about onethird of the world's scientific publications originate
in the European Union and Europe's share of this
total has even increased in the last few years. An
analysis of the patents registered in the United States
and in Europe reveals, however, that European technological performance is, overall, weaker than that of
its competitors: this is the "European paradox".

**World share in % terms of registered patents**

In the USA

1990 1993

In Europe
1990 1993

EU 15

USA

JAPAN

OTHERCOUNTRIES

WORLD - Total

23

45

25

7

100

18

50

24

8

100

46

26

21

7

100

46

29

18

7

100

_Source: European Commission DG_ _XII,_ _OECD, EUROSTAT_

If we break down the shares of European and American patents worldwide by field, what clearly emerges is the predominance of Japan in advanced technologies, the importance of traditional sectors in Europe and the substantial presence of American industry in all sectors.

**The positions of the Triad by technological area, measured in patents, 1993**

US patents world share (%)

European Union USA Japon

EUROPE

Electroncis/ electricity

Instruments/optics

Chemistry/pharmaceuticals

Industrial processes

Mechanical

engineering/transport

Consumer goods

European patents world share (%)

European Union USA Japon

34.2

37.8

40.3

50.1

58.5

64.0

_**WE**_

30.0

32.4

33.7

25.6

19.2

16.9

jijl&ffilj

31.8

23.4

20.0

16.6

15.5

8.0

##### _m [$ ]_

11.5

14.9

28.2

22.3

23.6

19.1

**•iaiiiitii&iii***

46.7

50.8

51.0

50.5

45.4

50.1

###### _WÊM_

35.4

28.0

19.7

19.3

22.5

12.5

###### BMI8

_**iiiiiiiiiiiiiil***_

_**iiiiiiiiiiiiiil***_ _**ïiiiliiiiiitiiéiiiêi***_

_Source: USPTO data; OST and_ _CHI-Reasearch_ _treatments, 1995._ _UNESCO_ _World_ _Science Report_

c ^,; T

##### **3. European research within the international technological scene**

A decline in the balance of trade between the Union and the rest of the world for high-level R&D goods indicates
that European technological competitiveness is being eroded: in the last ten years, the deficit has increased tenfold.

###### **Trade balance in thousand million dollars**

_**Japan**_

**15.98**

**54.92**

**24.07**

_Japan_

52.36

133.34

-9.21

_Industrial_

_sectors,_ _of_

_which:_

High-level R&D

Mediunrvlevel

R&D

Low-level R&D

_**European**_
_**Union**_

**-2.21**

**69.93**

**35.75**

_1982_

_**USA**_

**13.48**

**6.23**

**-18.01**

_1991_

_USA_

12.48

-23.44

-43.05

_European_
_Union_

-23.64

87.79

5.54

_Source:_ _Chelem_ _CEPII;_ _OSTtraitement_ _OST,_ _S&TIndicators_ _1996_

###### **US Technology Position Relative to Japan & Europe**

Lag

Substantial Slight

Parity

**o**

E >

**o**

_• >_

**o**

CO

Substantial

o
<^
O

o

<s

C=

O

 - -»

Lead

«•

- • •

« •

_—_

-»

_—_

 - •

« •

 - •

Japan
Europe

1990-94 Trend

A comparison of the American,
European and Japanese positions in a
series of "critical technologies" shows
that, despite the erosion of its position
in some sectors, the USA continues to
dominate the international technological scene.

US Technology Position

Relative to:

E n e r g y

Energy efficiency

Storage,conditioning, distribution &

transmission

Improved generation

Environmental quality

Monitoring & assessment

Pollution control

Remediation & restoration

Information & c o m m u n i c a t i o n

Components

Communications

Compouting systems

Information management

Intelligent complex adaptive systems

Sensors

Sottware and toolkits

Living systems

Biotechnology

Medical technologies

Agricultural and food technologies

Human systems

M a n u f a c t u r i n g

Disciete product manufacturing

Continuous materials processing

Micro/nanofabrication and machining

M a t e r i a l s

Materials

Structures

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n

Aerodynamics

Avionics & controls

Propulsion & power

Systems integration

Human interface

-•

« •

_—_

Slight

o

o

o

*.

«a

o

_y_

_<p_

O

«=

o

**Maintained**

**O**

**•**

**Declined**

         - a

**«•**

**Improved**

_**^>**_

**-»**

_Source: National_ _Critical_

_Technologies Review Groups_ _Science Engineering Indicators 1996_

###### **4. American and Japanese research efforts**

**United States of America**

Although there was a nominal increase between 1990 and 1996 in the American federal budget for research, in fact it
declined slightly in real terms. The origin of this fall was a reduction in military R&D funding.

On the other hand, civilian research expenditure has increased in real terms by $3.4 billion in the last five years. The
relative shares of the health, space, energy and basic research sectors in the federal budget increased. For 1997, despite
budgetary restrictions, the Clinton/Gore Government proposed a budget increase of 1.6%.

###### **Evaluation of priorities of American federal R&D funding** **(R&D budget appropriations by socio-economic objective)**

_1996_

_70_ _503_

53.3

16.7

11.2

4.3

4.4

3.1

2.8

1.7

2.5

100.0

_1995_

_70_ _309_

54.8

16.2

11.2

4.0

4.1

2.9

2.7

1.7

2.4

100.0

    

_Total value_ _(in $_ _million)_

Defence

Health
Space research and technology

Science

Energy

Natural resources and environment

Transport
Agriculture
Other

Percentage total

7990

_63_ _781_

62.6

13.0

9.0

3.8

4.3

2.2

1.6

1.5

2.0

100.0

_Source: National Science_ _Foundation_

Between 1991 and 1995, funding for American research programmes based on partnerships with the private sector grew
considerably in number.
###### **Selected Federal Partnership with Industry**

SEMATECH                   - Consortium on semiconductor tecrnxriogy

**TRP**                   - Technology Reinvestman} Project

CRADAs                   - Cooperâtsvè Research _mû_ Development Agreements

M€P                  - IvUmutacturtng Extension Program

ATP ~ Advanced TechooJotiy Project

S8IR ~ Small Business Invôstmont _m_ Research

S « '

1000

1388 1989 1990 1991 1902

Ysarr, show" _zm_ fecal _wm,_ K-.-j. FY'1^5, 1 Octets '**« i;; 30 S~ptac>bor KKK;

_Source: Department of Commerce data,_ _1995_

1993 1995

_UNESCO, World Science Report_

_:_ f"

**Japan**

While occupying a leading position in the application of technology, but behind the United States and Europe in basic
research **Japan** has **begun** to make massive investments in science and human resources for research purposes At the
same time, its level of industrial research remains high. purposes. At tne

**Increases in the Japanese public research budget in 1996:**

Total public research budget- + 6.9%

Bodies:

Ministry of Science (MONBUSHO): + 7 2%

Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI); + 53%

Science and Technology Agency (STA): +7,2%

Industrial Research and Technology Agency: +7,4%

Programmes

Post-doctoral fellowships: + [ 33»5% ]

Programme for centres of excellence; + 23,8%

Research aid grants; + [ 10.2% ]

'industrial Science and Technology'* programme; + 6.3%

Areas (examples')

Strategic basic research; 4. |£Q%

Space; + 5.2%

Nuclear energy; + _[ ^2% ]_

### **rr**

#### **5. SMEs, research and employment**

SMEs are the largest source of employment in the European Union. In addition, small and very small undertakings produce the most innovations. Analysis reveals that the sectors with the greatest growth in research investment are also
those where most jobs are being created.

###### **Share of SMEs in the total employment of the**

###### **EU**

**ISME (<250** **employees**

**• Large** **undertakings** **(>250**
**employees**

_Source: European Commission_ _Eurostat,_ _SME Project database, 1995._

###### **Percentage breakdown of innovations according to categories** **of salaried employees (Ireland, Italy, Netherlands,** **United Kingdom)**

Size category **Ireland** _**m**_ _**L**_ Netherlands UK
1-19 61.0 14.4 35.0 22.4

20-49 21.0 21.3 18.4 14.7

**50-99** 9.0 27.2 10.9 26.7

14.4

21.3

27.2

14.1

5.5

17.5

35.0

18.4

10.9

21.1

14.6

22.4

14.7

26.7

15.6

7.6

13.0

**100-499**

**500-999**

1000 and over

61.0

21.0

9.0

8.0

1.0

_Source:_ _European SME_ _Observatory,_ _1995._

###### **R&D expenditure and growth in jobs, 1973-1990** **Average percentage growth rates per industry in relation to total** **industrial growth for the 13 OECD countries**

**Food** **O** **Aerospace**
1 1 1

**Non-electrical equipment**

**Pharmaceutical products** **Computers**

**o** **o**

**Scientific**

**instruments** **Radio, TV and**
**O** **communications**
**O** **Cars** **O** **e t** ***** **u i** **P** **m e n t**

**Stone**

**o**

**Non-ferrous**

**metals**

**ot***

**Chemical**
**Other means of transport** **O** **products**

2 -4

**Oil refining** **O O**

**O** **Wood**

**Ferrous metals**

**o**

**Textiles**

**Q** **Paper**

**O** **Rubber**

**T** **Electrical equipment**

**Shipbuilding**

-Q

_**Source: OECD**_

_**STAN**_ _**Database**_

 - 1 0 1

**Relative annual growth of jobs**

**o<f**

##### **6. Visions of the future and priorities**

For the last thirty years, Japan and the United States have regularly carried out "foresight exercises" (studies for scientific and technological future planning). Operations of this type have recently been launched in Europe (particularly in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Spain).

A comparison of their conclusions shows a high level of convergence in the priorities chosen when the subjects are
merged at high and medium levels (optoelectronics and artificial intelligence; nanotechnologies and new and intelligent materials; biotechnologies, molecular biology and neurosciences; environmental technologies and clean energy production technologies, etc.).

In terms of economic and social objectives, two major themes emerge:

**the information society;**

**sustainable development.**

These conclusions also converge with those of "Project 2025" undertaken at the request of 18 major organizations
and companies in the USA, United Kingdom and Germany. Based on a critical analysis of 1500 foresight exercises
carried out since 1970, this project has resulted in the drawing up of a list of 83 "high probability" hypotheses for
the year 2025. The major themes include: _integrated management of the environment and natural_ _resources;_ _inte-_
_grated management of human health; the advent of the "electronic global village_ _";_ _intelligent manufacturing._

_Source: OECD Science_ _Technology_ _Industry_ _Review,_ _No_ _17,_ _Special issue on Government_ _Technology_ _Foresight Exercises: The competitive posi-_
_tion of European science, technology and industry - an ESTA opinion in relation with the 5th Framework Programme;_ _L'avenir_ _hautement pro-_
_bable,_ _83 hypothèses_ _sur_ _l'année,_ _2025, Joseph Coates, Futuribles, April_ _1996._

**O**
***£•"**

#### **7. Society's needs and market prospects: Some examples** **_Sustainable development and the environment_**

There can be no sustainable development without research playing its part. Among others, two of the major problems
to be solved are water resources and the impact of transport on the environment. At European, as at world level, the
environment represents a potentially important market.

**Water: a rare resource**

Water is becoming a rare resource in Europe and in the world. 65% of the water drawn from rivers, lakes and aquifers
in the world is used by agriculture. 1 000 tonnes of water are needed to produce a tonne of wheat. An additional
27 million cubic metres are needed to feed the 90 million people being added to the world population every year.

20% of European surface waters are under threat. 60% of farmland presents a concentration of fertilizers and pesticides which is hazardous to the water quality in its vicinity. Between 15 and 30% of the water collected in Europe is
lost in the course of its distribution.

_Source: Commission staff working paper on Research-Industry_ _Task_ _Forces (SEC(96)568)/The state of the planet 1996._

**Transport costs**

In the space of 50 years, the world population has doubled while the number of private vehicles has increased tenfold and now amounts to about 500 million. At this rate there will be 1 000 million cars in the world by 2025 or 2030.
In Europe alone the number of cars is expected to increase by 25% between 1992 and 2005.

Transport accounts for 30% of final energy requirements and is responsible for 25% of all CO2 emissions. Road
transport alone represents 80% of the CO2 produced by transport. The total cost of problems other than health problems attributed to emissions from transport is estimated at between 0.3 and 0.4% of GDP.

_Source: Commission staff_ _working_ _paper on Research-Industry_ _Task_ _Forces_ _(SEC (9 6) 5_ _68)/The Economist, 22 June 1996 "Living with the car": a_

_survey._

**The world environmental market**

**Estimates in $ '000 million**

_Environmental_

_ECOTEC_

2000

147

5

89

9

63

320

_ETDC_

2000

217

   
188

25

138

580

Year

North America

Latin America

Western Europe
Eastern Europe/NIS
Asia & the Pacific

World total

_OECD_

2000

125

  
78

21

42

300

_Business_
_International_

1998

199

10

132

27

49

426

_Source: OECD (1992); ECOTEC (1994); ETDC (1994); OTA (1994)._

_*\_

##### **_Biotechnologies_**

The market for biotechnology-based products is one of the fastest growing in the world. In terms of the number of companies, jobs, turnover or research expenditure, American efforts in this area are currently much greater than their
European counterparts.

**Global Sales for Biotechnology-Based products**
**10 year Projection (1996-2006) - in 1996 $ Billions**

**Non-**
**medical**
**diagnosis**

_Source: Consulting Resources Corp._

Financial

**Specialized**
**fields**

**Agriculture**

**Human**
**diagnosis**

**Human**

**treatment**

**EU vs US BIOTECH SECTORS**

**(Ecu Millions)**

Europe US

Turnover 1 158 9.663 ~

R&D Expenditure 605 5.859 ~

Industry

Number of Companies 584 1.308

Number of employees 17 200 108.000 "~~

_Source: Ernest &_ _Young_ _BioBusiness_

10

**VI**

#### **_Health_**

Europe's population is becoming older. By the year 2020, over a quarter of people will be more than 60 years old, while
those under the age of 20 will constitute only just over one-fifth of the population. The consequences of this trend in
medical and public health terms are important.

###### **EU population by age group (%)**

```
                                                                      0-19

                                                                       ~~20-5S

                 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

```

_Source: Eurostat, Europe in figures_

Throughout the world, infectious diseases affect hundreds of millions of people and kill tens of millions.

###### **Populations Affected by Various Infectious Diseases, 1993**

Disease Deaths Incidence

Acute Respiratory Infections 4.1 million 248 million

Diarrheal Diseases 3.0 million 1.8 billion

Tuberculosis 2.7 million 8.8 million

Malaria 2.0 million 300-500 million (prevalence)

Measles 1.2 million 45 million

Hepatitis B 1.0 million 2.2 million

HIV/AIDS 700000 2-3 million

Cholera 6800 380000

Polio | 5500 110000

_Source: WHO, 1995_ _State_ _of_ _the World 1996_

**11**

**- * ***

##### **_The information society_**

Europe has entered the information society. The number of connections by private individuals and firms to the Internet
and the market for CD-Rom drives is increasing at a steady pace. American firms are currently producing most of the
CD-Roms available

**The Internet Market in Europe, 1994-2000**
**Number of Households with Internet** **Access** **(Milhons)**

**• Spain**

**•** **Italy**

**• France**

**B** **United Kingdom**
**DGermany**

**•** **Rest** **of** **Europe**

_Source: European Information_ _Technology Obsen'atoiy EITO_ _1996_

**Homes equipped with CD-Rom drives** **World production of CD-Roms in 1995**

In gUllions of units

40

```
      1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

```

_Source: Inteco 1994_ _Source:_ _TPFL_ _Publishing, Facts & Figures 95_

**12**

**' ^**

**ISSN** **0254-1475**

### **COM(96) 332 final**

# **DOCUMENTS**

##### **EN 15** **Catalogue number : CB-CO-96-356-EN-C** **ISBN 92-78-06929-9**

**Office for Official Publications of the European Communities**

**L-2985** **Luxembourg**