ghanaopendata/ghanaian-research-english huggingface dataset:
Predicting the Level of Akosombo Dam Using Mathematical Modeling

Hydroelectric power is one of the cheapest renewable sources of energy in the world and its generation depends on the management of four major factors which are rainfall, inflows, and outflows of water resources as well as evaporation in dams. The main aim of the thesis seeks to utilize a differential equation model for Akosombo Dam’s water level prediction. The model was tested on a data covering the past twenty eight years. In the testing process the first model produced a result which was about 65% accurate, the modified model gave a result with an accuracy of 86%. The results show that it is possible to use the model to predict the level of the water in the Akosombo dam for any month in a year with some acceptable level of accuracy.

Source: KNUST
Predicting Microfinance Credit Default (A Study Of Nsoatreman Rural Bank, Sunyani)

This study examines the factors predicting Microfinance Credit Default in Ghana. The problem of microfinance credit default is now acknowledged to be a global phenomenon with authorities in many countries concerned about the growth in the number of default since it impedes the realization of the Millennium Development Goals which includes the alleviation of poverty especially among the rural and productive poor through microfinance. Data was collected from 409 micro credit beneficiaries of Nsoatreman Rural Bank who were located in urban, semi-rural and rural areas. Logistic Regression was used to analyze the data. It was found that factors such as sex, marital status, age, reason for opening account, duration of banking, location of business, number of times of credit officer visits client and the number of times clients has acquired loan do not contribute to credit default. The study found that factors such as educational level, number of dependents, type of loan, adequacy of loan facility, duration for repayment of loan, number of years in business, cost of capital and period within the year the loan was advanced to the client had a significant effect on credit default. The implication of this study among others include the Microfinance Institutions(MFI’S) adopting the group loan policy as the main mode of advancing micro loans to clients, the need of MFI’S to partner the Ministry of Education through the Non Formal Education Division to organize functional literacy workshops for micro credit beneficiaries to equip them with the required knowledge to do their businesses successfully and finally the government intensifying family control programmes especially in the rural and semi-rural areas to control childbirth and hence the number of dependents of households.

Source: KNUST
Prediction of transient stability status and coherent generator groups

The prediction of transient stability status and instability scenarios such as coherent generator groups has become extremely important for the improvement of power system performance in the event of large disturbances. This research workis aimed at developing various schemes for providing advance information on the stability status of power systems following a transient disturbance. The work also focuses on predicting coherent generator groups that are likely to be formed when a system is predicted to become transient unstable. Power System Simulator for Engineers (PSSE) software is employed to model a test system and carry out simulations. MATLAB® software is used for the analysis and development of the prediction schemes. Three schemes for predicting transient stability status and one scheme for predicting coherent generator groups have been developed. Rotor speed deviation following a disturbance was found to be an excellent input parameter for the schemes. The first proposed method for predicting transient stability status employs the Daubechies 4 mother wavelet to decompose rotor speed deviation data obtained for three consecutive cycles after the tripping of a line or bus. The wavelet entropies subsequently obtained are then used as input to an algorithm which predicts the transient stability status of a power system. The prediction accuracy of this method was found to be 91.2%. The second transient stability status prediction schemeuses the sum of the maximum rotor speed deviations of system generators obtained within the first cycle after the tripping of a bus or line following a transient disturbance for its prediction. The obtained sum is then used as input data to a trained multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) which is used for the prediction. This method was found to be 100% accurate. The third scheme developed is anchored onstability status prediction of each generator based the maximum rotor speed deviation (MSD) of that generator, obtained within the first cycle after the tripping of a line or bus. The MSD of each generator has also been used as input to a trained MLPNN assigned to that generator forits transient stability prediction. The method has been found to return 98.05% accuracy in generator transient stability predictions.The final scheme developed is aimed at identifying coherent generator groups only after successful prediction of system transient instability. This final scheme has been realized via two MLPNNs each of which is equipped with three input neurons. Herein, the input data to the three input neurons are: (1) MSD of a reference generator in a predicted coherent group, (2) MSD of a generator to be placed in a group, and (3) the difference between the two MSDs. The proposed coherency prediction scheme has been tested exhaustively and found to be90.43% accurate. The proposed schemes which rely principally on MSD are computationally fast and efficient in their respective predictive capabilities; and can therefore be easily implemented on-line in real systems with the availability of phasor measurement units.

Source: KNUST
Predictive Maintenance Model Based on Multisensor Data Fusion of Hybrid Fuzzy Rough Set Theory Feature Selection and Stacked Ensemble for Fault Classification

With the rising demand for integrated and autonomous systems in the eld of engineering, e cient frameworks for instant detection of performance anomalies are imperative for improved productivity and cost-e ectiveness. is study proposes a systematic predictive maintenance framework based on the hybrid multisensor fusion technique of fuzzy rough set feature selection and stacked ensemble for the e cient classi cation of fault conditions characterised by uncertainties. First, a feature vector of time-domain features was extracted from 17 multiple sensor signals. en, a comparative study of six di erent Fuzzy Rough Set Feature Selection (FRFS) methods was employed to select the various combinations of optimal feature subsets for various faults classi cation tasks. e determined optimal feature subsets then served as inputs for training the stacked ensemble (ESB(STK)). In the ESB(STK), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), k-Nearest Neighbour (k-NN), C4.5 Decision Tree (C4.5 DT), Logistic Regression (LR), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) served as the base classi ers while the LR was selected to be the metaclassi er. e proposed hybrid framework (FRFS-ESB(STK)) improved the classi cation accuracy with the selected combinations of optimal feature subset size whiles reducing the computational cost, over tting, training runtime, and uncertainty in modelling. Overall analyses showed that the FRFS-ESB(STK) proved to be generalisable and versatile in the classi cation of all conditions of four monitored hydraulic components (i.e., cooler, valve, accumulator, and internal pump leakage) when compared with the six base classi ers (standalone) and three existing ensemble classi ers (Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB), Ada Boost (ADB), and Bagging (BAG)). e proposed FRFS-ESB(STK) showed an average improvement of 11.28% and 0.88% test accuracies when classifying accumulator and pump conditions, respectively, whiles 100% classi cation rates were obtained for both cooler and valve.

Source: KNUST
Predictors of Anaemia Prevalence Among Ghanaian Pregnant Women: A Cross-Sectional Study

Anaemia during pregnancy is a major public health concern. Despite its wide scope and adverse effects including increased maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality, and long-term adverse effects on the newborn, appropriate interventions using upstream approaches to public health have largely not been implemented. This study investigated the prevalence and associated factors of anaemia among pregnant women in four health facilities in the Kwabre East Municipality. A cross-sectional survey with a two-stage sampling technique was conducted on 220 pregnant women who attended antenatal care at the selected health facilities. Interview-based structured questionnaires were used. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify predictors. The prevalence of anaemia was 11.4%. Few women (25) were anaemic and morphologically, 14 (56%) had normocytic normochromic anaemia and 9 (36%) had microcytic hypochromic anaemia. Iron deficiency was reported in 19 (8.6%) pregnant women. Independent predictors of anaemia were iron sulphate intake (AOR [95% CI] = 3.16 [1.15, 7.37], ANC follow-up during pregnancy (AOR [95% CI] = 3.07 [1.59, 7.99], household size of ≥5 (AOR [95% CI] = 3.58 [1.75, 9.52], folic acid intake (AOR [95% CI] = 5.29 [2.65, 12.39] and the period in pregnancy AOR [95% CI] = ≥36 weeks 3.2 (1.3-4.5). Though anaemia prevalence has been low in urban areas as previously reported, collaborated healthcare measures that aim at eradicating the menace are encouraged. Maternal healthcare interventions including the administration of folic acid, regular iron sulphate intake and intensive education on early ANC are recommended.

Source: KNUST
Predictive Modeling of Insurance Claims Using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

There has been considerable amount of attention rendered to claims reserving methods over the last few decades in actuarial science. The commonly used method of estimating claims reserves is the chain ladder technique. The underlying principle of the chain-ladder technique is that no underlying pattern to the run-o , and that each development year should be allocated a separate parameter. Applicable to a wide range of data, the chain ladder could alternatively be condemned for having too many parameters and also assumptions have to be used to estimate reserves beyond the latest development year already observed. This research seeks to explain an approach to model the development of claims run-o , using reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) method. The study uses claims data from a renowed Insurance Company in Ghana; Win- BUGS the tool used in simulating the reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) method. The Bayesian methods are found to be better than the Over-dispersed Poisson model with lower predictive errors.

Source: KNUST
Predictors of hypertension among diabetic patients in the Ejisu municipality of Ghana [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]

Introduction The co-existence of hypertension with diabetes mellitus among diabetic patients is a setback to public health. About 40-75% of diabetic patients present with hypertension. The co-existence of hypertension and diabetes can accelerate complications such as stroke, myocardial infarction, nephropathy, and mortality. Available data indicate the devastating effects of hypertension and diabetes on individuals, families, and the economy as catastrophic. Therefore, knowing the predictors of hypertension among diabetic patients would inform the lifestyle and management of the two conditions. Objective The study focused on predictors of hypertension among diabetic patients in the Ejisu Municipality of Ghana. Methods The study employed a quantitative approach with a sample size of 120. Data were collected on sociodemographic characteristics, family history, 24-hour dietary recall, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, glycated haemoglobin, total lipid profile, and anthropometrics. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 27. Results Out of 120 respondents, 85% were females with 77.5% above 50 years of age. A majority (66.7%) had a family history of diabetes with 76.7% having hypertension as a comorbidity. Fasting blood glucose was found to be 8.519 times more likely to present with hypertension. Systolic blood pressure, carbohydrate, and sodium intakes were 6.1%, 2.9%, and 0.1% respectively. However, diabetic patients with high HbA1c were 97% less likely not to present with hypertension. Conclusion Hypertension was found to be the most common comorbidity among diabetic patients in Ghana. Glycaemic control, systolic blood pressure, and dietary factors specifically carbohydrate and sodium intake were significant predictors of hypertension among the study participants.

Source: KNUST
Prediction of loan default using logistic regression: A case study of Ahafo Ano Premier Rural Bank

Advancement of loan facilities among Rural banks to individuals and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) is associated with high risk due to default in re- payment of such loan facilities in Ghana.This study seeks to explore the characteristics of customers of the Ahafo Ano Rural Bank that make them more likely to default in loan repayment. Loans form the major part of the assets of banks in Ghana. Loans are the main source of income for these banks which also intends to be very risky to the lender. Rural banks have its constituency in the lending activity of rural folks in Ghana which were set up by Government of Ghana Banking policy.Logistic regression was applied to customer loan application data from Ahafo Ano Premier Rural Bank to determine characteristics of customers who default (dependent variable) with demographic and socio - economic factors as independent variables . A total of 152 customers were con- sidered for the study. Preliminary analysis by the use of test of independence identifi ed, loan type (commercial and susu), marital status (married) from the Chi - Square statistic. Logistic regression obtained from the study had type of loan (commercial), loan repayment period cum number of dependents of customer been statistically signifi cant (p 􀀀 values < 0:5). The model obtained is: Log(Odds) = 3:863X1 + 0:088X2 􀀀 0:234X3. In conclusion, the study fi ndings show that customers with more months to pay a loan, married customers, and customers with smaller number of dependents are more likely to default. Results and fi ndings from the study will help the bank and other financial institutions to make informed decisions by identifying low risk and high risk customers when granting loans to their customers.

Source: KNUST
Predictors of Postabortion Family Planning Uptake in the New Juaben Municipality, Ghana.

Post abortion care has been identified as a key strategy to reduce maternal mortality in developing countries. It plays a vital role in the treatment of complications associated with unsafe abortion as well as providing post abortion family planning counseling and services to prevent repeat unplanned pregnancies and repeated abortions. According to World Health Organization (WHO), 47,000 women died from complications of unsafe abortion, and the percent of maternal deaths attributed to unsafe abortion remains unchanged at 13% worldwide in 2008, despite global efforts.A descriptive cross-sectional study assessed factors that determine contraceptive uptake among post abortion women in the New Juaben Municipality of Ghana. Using quantitative method of data collection, a structured questionnaire was used to gather data from six hundred and thirty four (634) respondents. Facilities and participants were selected based on multistage sampling technique. The most seekers of post abortion care (PAC) were aged between 20 – 29 years (60.6%), and 59.9% of those who accepted family planning were in the same age category. Abortion seekers were generally well educated; 96.5% of the women have had formal education. Knowledge on contraceptive methods available was high; 67% of the respondents knew about one (1) to four (4), whereas 33% knewfive (5) to seven (7) contraceptive methods. Respondents’ knowledge on when fertility returns following abortion was low;(45.1%) of respondents had no idea, and only 16.7% knowing that, fertility returns within 2 weeks after abortion. The existence of very good relationship between service providers and clients seeking PAC services contributed to contraceptive uptake.Majority (74.6%) of institutions provided postabortion care (PAC), thus on site family planning services and 89.1% had a protective service environment.Majority of clients do not know or have no idea about the opening and closing time of institutions offering PAC services. The cost of PAC services is generally low and institutions providing PAC services are far away from clients. Socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge on family planning, range and accessibility to post abortion family planning counseling and services serves as a predictive factor in contraceptive uptake.Misconceptions on the use of contraceptives and the fear of side effects are a few barriers to the uptake of family planning.Service providers and all health institutions could strengthen the education on PAC especially on when fertility returns after abortion,not only to prevent repeat unintended pregnancy and abortion, but also because it is integral to achieving the Millennium Development Goal 5.

Source: KNUST
Predictors of profitability in the commercial banking industry in Ghana

The study examines the predictors of commercial banks profitability in Ghana. The proxies for profitability include return on assets and return on equity. Data is collected from commercial banks listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2019. Descriptive statistics and panel regression are used to analyze the data. Based on the findings, the study concludes that micro-economic factors such as capital adequacy and bank size significantly predict the profitability of commercial banks. Additionally, the study concludes that inflation and GDP significantly predict the profitability of commercial banks. The study establishes that capital adequacy predicts the profitability of commercial banks in Ghana. Consequently, the study recommends for the commercial banks to develop policies which will enhance the resilience and efficiency of commercial banks with the aim of intensifying the robustness as well as the stability of the banking sector. The study establishes that GDP and inflation exert some influence on the profitability of the commercial banks. The study therefore, recommends for policies aimed at controlling inflation and GDP be given priority in fostering the commercial banking sector as these predictors influence the ‘health’ of Ghana’s economy in general and banks profitability in particular.

Source: KNUST
Predictors of Postpartum Family Planning Uptake: Understanding Provider and Potential Family Planning User Behaviour in the Wa Municipality of the Upper West Region, Ghana

Postpartum family planning uptake is known to have the potential to significantly reduce unintended pregnancies and maternal deaths especially worldwide with Ghana not an exception. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of socio-demographic characteristics of postpartum women on postpartum family planning (PPFP), factors that influence postpartum fertility preference, compare current FP practices among immediate and extended postpartum women and determine the effects service-related factors have on PPFP in the Wa municipality. The study was conducted from July to November, 2012. METHODS The study involved a cross-sectional survey of 518 randomly sampled postpartum women aged 15 – 49 years and 10 service providers. Data were captured through person -to - person interviews with questionnaires. RESULTS Two hundred and ninety one postpartum women (67.7%) accepted FP method within the first year postpartum. Postpartum acceptance of FP was significantly associated with parity (p=0.001) but not with level of education (p=0.72), religion (p=0.06), discussion number of children with partner (p=0.06) and Postpartum women with higher education (AOR=0.46; 95%, CI=0.20-1.05), Muslims (AOR=0.35; 95%, CI=0.9-1.29), women who discussed number of children with partner (AOR=0.56; 95%, CI=0.28-1.10) were more likely to refuse contraception while postpartum women with 3-6 children (AOR=5.9; 95%, CI=1.30-27.55) were more likely to use contraception. CONCLUSION The study highlights the importance of developing interventions on client-provider interactions postpartum to increase more effective contraceptive methods use. Early provider contact with postpartum women has shown a greater opportunity of increased contraception. RECOMMENDATION Family planning service providers should focus specifically on immediate postpartum contraception by providing education on fertility return behaviours, benefits of breastfeeding in preventing unintended pregnancies within the first six months postpartum and initiation of contraception before the return of menses or resumption of sexual activity as conception could precede return of menses after delivery.

Source: KNUST
Predictors of self-medication practices among adults living with HIV/AIDS in the Bolgatanga Municipality in the Upper East Region, Ghana

In the quest for quick relief for minor ailments, reduce cost and save time from visiting a doctor and avoid the long queues in hospitals most people tend to practice self-medication (SM). However people living with HIV/AIDS who usually take a minimum of three highly active antiretroviral drugs need to be extra cautious in order to avoid pronounced adverse reactions, drug-drug interactions and masking of opportunistic infections. The purpose of the study was to assess the factors that influence the practice of self-medication among adults living with HIV/AIDS in the Bolgatanga municipality of the Upper East region of Ghana. Structured questionnaires were administered to 286 HIV adult clients who visited the Antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinic of the Bolgatanga regional hospital using convenient sampling techniques to collect data. The data were analysed using STATA 14 and presented using tables, frequencies and percentages. Statistical significance for all testing was set as 0.05.Out of the total number of participants, 38.81% self-medicated within the last three months prior to the study. Pain relief (78.38%) was the major reason for self-medication and as such analgesics usage was high (76.58%). Majority of participants (94.4%) had poor knowledge about effects of SM on ART. More than half of participants (61.5%) had a positive attitude and had higher odds to practice self-medication. (OR: 13.5 CI: 6.26-27.54, p value=0.00) Among the perceived health system factors, the perennial shortage of medicines in hospitals was twice likely to influence HIV clients to self-medicate (AOR= 1.9, CI: 1.05-3.34, p=0.03). This research recommends that health facilities should work at improving the availability of essential medicines. Also continuous education to clients is key to minimize adverse events and improve adherence to therapy.

Source: KNUST