ghanaopendata/ghanaian-research-english huggingface dataset:
Modeling Water Consumption Using Time Series Analysis. Case Study: Tamale Metropolis, Ghana

Water supply system is the base of a city development, the protection of people’s daily lives and the indispensable material conditions of social development, production and construction. The rapid growth of the Tamale Metropolis has for years back caused severe strains on water supply to the metropolis. Population growth in the metropolis has led to gradual increase in water consume and subsequent water shortage in the metropolis, which may be apparent over a span of several years. To curtail this continuous shortage of water and to develop a rational urban growth plan for the metropolis, it is imperative to estimate the future need of water consumption of the people in the Metropolis. Water consumption of certain future period usually is associated with the past, the present and future water supply system operating conditions. The purpose of this research is to identify the best fit time series model to water consumption data in the Tamale Metropolis and to use it to forecast water consumption in the fourth coming years in the Metropolis. Time series models including ARIMA and SARIMA were fitted to the data collected from Ghana Water Company Limited in the Tamale Metropolis of the Northern Region of Ghana spanning 13 years (2002-2014) on monthly basis. The empirical study suggests that the most adequate model for the data is SARIMA(4,1,1) × (0,1,1)12. The model is used to forecast monthly water consumption by residents and businesses for sixty months from 20152019 in the metropolis.

Source: KNUST
Modelling an Equation for Detecting Diabetes

Diabetes is a syndrome of disordered metabolism, usually due to a combination of hereditary and environmental causes, resulting in abnormally high blood sugar levels. Various hormones in our body such as insulin, growth hormone, glucagon control blood glucose levels, epinephrine best known as adrenaline, glucocorticoids and thyroxin. The two most common forms of diabetes are due to either a diminished production of insulin (Type 1 diabetes), or diminished response by the body to insulin (Type 2 and gestational diabetes). Both lead to hyperglycemia, which largely causes the acute signs of diabetes: excessive urine production, resulting compensatory thirst and increased fluid intake, blurred vision, unexplained weight loss, lethargy, and changes in energy metabolism. We will explain how the hormone, insulin is activated and how it affects glucose levels in blood. We present a mathematical model that determines diabetes in patients based in the results on the glucose intolerance test of 5 hours. The model is in line with the one proposed by E. Ackerman (1969). The model is based on a 2x2system of non-homogenous ordinary differential equations. A nonlinear least square method is used to determine the coefficient parameters of the system based on actual data from GTT. The simulations also provide an indicator similar to the one proposed by E. Ackerman (1969), to diagnose a diabetic condition.

Source: KNUST
Modeling the Transmission and Survival Rate of HIV/AIDS in Ghana

A comprehensive deterministic HIV/AIDS transmission model incorporating treatment strategies is presented and rigorously analyzed. Two structures of the model are considered with preliminary one consisting of eight differential equations of the state variables and the expanded one also consisting of twenty differential equations involving parameters which determine the transmission rate and treatment HIV/AIDS of the model. A compartment model that tracks the spread of HIV in multiple two-sex populations over time in the presence of limited treatment was investigated. In this study we investigate the effects of treatment and the future spread of HIV in all populations. Treatment simulations shows that when the probability of transmission is high, it is harder to prevent the future spread of HIV, even with treatment .ART-distribution methods are introduce to prevent the largest number of future HIV infections. The model has been fit to represent the HIV epidemic in rural and urban areas in Ghana. With the model, the spread of HIV among urban and rural regions were examined and observed the effects of preferential treatment to rural areas on the spread of HIV in the country as a whole. The researcher investigated the effects of preferentially treating women on the spread of HIV. It was observed that, preferentially treating urban women produces the most dramatic effect in reducing the number of infected male and females in rural and urban areas.

Source: KNUST
Modelling and Experemental Studies on a Mixed-Mode Natural Convection Solar Crop Dryer with Back up Heater

This thesis presents the design, experimental, and theoretical analysis of a mixed-mode natural convection solar crop dryer with back up heater(MNCSCDBH). The ultimate aim of the research is to study the thermal buoyancy characteristics and possible drying conditions of a mixed-mode natural convection solar crop dryer with integrated collector-storage and back-backup heater through modelling and experimental studies...

Source: KNUST
Modelling and forecasting Ghana’s inflation rates using sarima models

Time series analysis and forecasting is an efficient versatile tool in diverse applications such as in economics and finance, hydrology and environmental management fields just to mention a few. Among the most effective approaches for analysing time series data is the method propounded by Box and Jenkins, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). In this study we used Box-Jenkins methodology to build ARIMA model for Ghana’s monthly inflation rate for the period 1990-2010 with a total of 252 data points. In this research, ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1)12 model was developed, and written as. y ̂_t=1.7958y_(t-1) -0.7958y_(t-2 )-0.7446e_(t-12)+0.237453e_(t-13)-0.3189e_(t-1).This model is used to forecast Ghana’s monthly inflation for the upcoming year 2011.The forecasted results will help policy makers gain insight into more appropriate economic and monetary policy in other to combat the predicted rise in inflation rate beginning the second quarter of 2011.In light of this we recommend the assessment and the performance of ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1)12 in forecasting Ghana’s inflation rate as a future research topic.

Source: KNUST
Modelling and Prediction of Maximum Vibration Amplitude for the Evaluation of Gas Turbine Performance.

Electric power generation is largely dependent on the generator. The generator is, however, found to have lateral vibration, torsional vibration or stator vibration problems which can affect the blade, bearings, shaft and speed of the generator among others. This ultimately affects the performance of the generator and thus production of power would be affected. It is therefore very essential to monitor the maximum vibration amplitude to ensure that it stays within range. The purpose of this research is to study and model system parameters to improve the operational efficiency of the gas turbine through the modelling of the maximum generator amplitude and prediction of the subsequent vibration amplitude of the generator of the thermal plant. Data obtained from the Kpone Thermal Power Plant was used in the modeling. The results indicates that the auto regression (1) model can be used to predict the maximum vibration amplitude of the generator. Comparing the actual data collected and the 95% confidence limits of the prediction considering an error of ± 0.76 , it is observed that the predicted values fall within the 95% confidence limits of the predicted values thereby validating the prediction model.

Source: KNUST
Modelling and simulating free chlorine decay using a pilot distribution system

Residual chlorine "naturally" in water due to its reaction with constituents in the bulk water/or materials(like Fe and Mn Oxides, biofilm etc.) deposited on pipe walls. As such, residual chlorine concentrations at the taps have often been found to be low and water quality is compromised at the expense of the consumer's health. This study aim at modelling chlorine decay in the Kumasi Water Distribution Network...............................................

Source: KNUST
Modelling Cocoa Farmer Behaviour Concerning the Chemical Control of Capsid in the Sekyere Area Ashanti Region, Ghana

This paper modelled the behaviour of the cocoa farmer in the Sekyere Area (Sekyere West, Afigya Sekyere and Sekyere Central), Ashanti Region, Ghana, concerning the chemical control of capsid. This was done by identifying the factors that determined the use of capsicide as well as the frequency of spray of capsicide (twice or more). It also quantified the effect of the factors on the use of capsicide and the frequency of spray of capsicide (twice or more) using a Tobit model and a Probit model respectively. A simultaneous Bi-Probit model was also employed to quantify the simultaneous effect of the factors that determined the frequency of use and quantity of use of capsicide. It was shown in the study that access to credit, household size and membership of a farmers’ group had statistically significant and highly probable influence on the cocoa farmer to spray twice or more. Also, access to credit, farmer’s experience, engagement in other economic activities, membership of farmers’ group and input shop availability were significant and had the same effect on the likelihood of the farmer using capsicide.

Source: KNUST
Modelling Cocoa Haulage as a Transshipment Problem Case Study: Kuapa Kokoo Company Limited

The transportation problem is a special class of the linear programming problem. It deals with the situation in which a commodity is transported from Sources to Destinations. The transshipment problem is an expansion of the transportation where intermediate nodes which are also referred to as transshipment node are added to account for locations such as warehouses. Our main objective is to model Kuapa cocoa transportation as transshipment problems and also minimize the cost of transportation of cocoa in the Kuapa Company. We will formulate the Transshipment problem as a Transportation problem and use the Transportation algorithm to solve it. The Quantitative Method (QM) Software will be use to analyze the data. We conclude that if Kuapa adapt this method, the cost of transporting Cocoa will be minimized.

Source: KNUST
Modelling Direct Tax Revenue Collection In Ghana. A Case Study of Internal Revenue Service, Sefwi Wiawso Tax District.

Tax revenue generation in any country constitutes an integral component of any government fiscal policy and many countries therefore, depend mainly on taxation as a means of generating the required resources for funding government expenditure. The provision of social programs, infrastructural developments, maintenance of law and order, defense against external aggression and payment of civil and public servants are usually funded by government through tax revenue. Tax revenue analysis is very important as it enables tax authorities and government to forecast or make future tax revenue projections. In this study, time series analysis is used with greater emphasis on Box-Jenkins model theory approach to analysis the direct tax revenue collection data from Internal Revenue Service, Sefwi Wiawso tax district. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA(2,1,0)) is used to model the data.

Source: KNUST
Modelling Human Immune Response to Virus Infectious Diseases

This study is aimed at modelling human immune response to virus infectious diseases. The issue of humans’ defense against viral infections and the reaction of immune system to these infections are the main problems in practical immunology. In addition to antiviral defense, the human immune system plays a decisive role in compatibility reactions such as autoimmune diseases and other allergies. Four systems of differential equations have been developed, analyzed and the numerical solutions found. These systems have been used to model different stages of the human immune response to viral infection. The first three differential equations describe the behaviour of lymphocytes in the absence of virus cells. The next two differential equations also describe the first line of defense in the innate immune response stage. The overlapping stage of innate and adaptive immune responses comprises a system of four differential equations. The last three equations describe the adaptive immune response which is the final stage of combating viral infection. The steady states and their stability for these differential models are deduced. Each of the models permits the existence of two types of stationary states. There is the state of no infection, with no virus cells while the other is the state of coexistence where a virus cell persists against the background of immune response. The state of no infection is asymptotically stable and a state of infection is unstable. It was found from the study that the state of no infection represents the immune state.

Source: KNUST
Modelling interconnections in c-SI Solar Photovoltaic modules for improved reliability in Kumasi in Sub - Saharan Africa

The use of climate-specific temperature-cycling profile is critical in precisely quantifying the degradation rate and accurately determining the service fatigue life of the crystalline silicon photovoltaic (c-Si PV) module operating in various climates. A reliable in-situ outdoor weathering database is pivotal in generating the required climate-specific temperature cycle profile. This study concerns the prediction of the reliability of both SnPb and Pb-free solder interconnects in a c-Si PV module from a sub-Saharan Africa outdoor weathering conditions. The test site for this study is located at the College of Engineering, KNUST Ghana (latitude 6º 40" N and longitude 1º 37" W at an elevation of 250 m above sea level). The research utilizes a three-year (2012 to 2014) high-resolution data to generate temperature cycles profiles that are representative of the test site climate. Subsequently, the generated temperature cycles were used in numerical investigations to examine the impact of these temperature cycle loads on the creep damage in the solder used as cell interconnecting material. The study involved an initial determination of the accurate constitutive model of EVA (encapsulant) for thermo-mechanical analysis of the c-Si solar cell. Furthermore, the life (number of cycles to failure) of the interconnecting solders were predicted using Finite Element Analysis (FEA) software (Ansys 18.2). The Garafalo-Arrhenius creep model was used to study the creep behaviour of the interconnecting solders since creep is the main damaging mechanism in the solder. Finally, the effects of temperature dwells and ramps were investigated from the change in Accumulated Creep Energy Density (ACED) profiles at the respective load steps for temperature ramps and dwells. Analysis of the data on temperature variation and thermally induced stresses showed that the test site has a temperature profile with a ramp rate of 8.996, a hot dwell time of 228 minutes, and a cold dwell time of 369 minutes. Maximum and minimum module temperatures of 58.9 and 23.7, respectively; in a cycle time of 86400 s (24 hrs) were recorded. Results from the numerical study showed that the linear viscoelastic material model (LVMM) of EVA generated the most consistent response to the thermo-mechanical analysis. Additionally, life cycle prediction results of soldered interconnections from ACED revealed that SnPb solder interconnections are likely to last longer (23.4 years) under the sub-Saharan African test region compared with Pb-free solder interconnects (13.69 years). Finally, a study on the effects of temperature dwells and ramps on creep damage of interconnections showed that the temperature ramps (heating and cooling load steps) accounted for approximately 80% of the creep damage in the soldered interconnections.

Source: KNUST
Modelling Inventory, Distibution Route Problem: A Case Study of Latex Foam Products

Manufacturing firms generate and update production, inventory and distribution, which are plans that state when certain controllable activities for example processing of jobs by resources should take place. As production systems expand, there is the tendency for its inventory and distribution to become complex. The organizational perspective, which is the most complete, views production and distribution as a system of decision-making that transforms information about the manufacturing system into a plan. Distributors must perform a variety of tasks and use both formal and informal information to make scheduling decisions. Previous production distribution involves complicated iterative procedures. A new approach brings out the basic principle that leads to a simple solution. The objective of this study is to establish an efficient optimum distribution that will minimize the total production and inventory cost whilst satisfying customer demands for Latex Foam Ghana Limited. The production problem was modeled as a transportation problem. Optimality conditions were satisfied and solution was found using Excel Solver. Results from the analysis indicated that customer demands could be satisfied when overtime production is increased and that an efficient production distribution could ensure cost reduction, optimum utilization of capacity, proper inventory control and management, quality and ultimate optimality.

Source: KNUST
Modelling count outcomes from dental caries in adults: a comparison of competing statistical models

The objectives of this research are to identify the key risk factors contributing to dental caries in adults and to determine an appropriate model suitable for the analysis of Decayed, Missing and Filled Teeth Data (DMFTDATA). The study was conducted between June, 2015 and January, 2016 in Sefwi Wiawso District Hospital, Sefwi Wiawso, Ghana, and it involved a systematic random samples of 1158. The average age of participants was about 40 years with 54% of them being females and the rest 46% being males. Count data models such as Poisson, negative binomial models, zero inflated Poisson (ZIP), zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) and Poisson hurdle (PHURDLE) models were fitted to the DMFTDATA and compared using the Vuong test statistic (V) and Akaike information criterion (AIC). ZINB was found to be the appropriate model for analysing DMFTDATA characterised with overdispersion and contains 28.8% of zeros. It was found that age (in years), jaw accident, frequency in sweet consumption, rinsing habit after meal with water and frequency of brushing were significant risk factors of dental caries in adults. It is therefore recommended that adults should endeavour to brush their teeth at least twice daily and rinse their mouth with water after meal. Also proper dental care should be considered for adults with jaw accident and adults should reduce intake of sugar foods.

Source: KNUST
Modelling of educational policy to sustain reserves. A case study of State Insurance Company.

The Insurance Industry in Ghana has seen setbacks though situations after 1986 stabilized and many Insurance companies came into being. The entry into the market of many firms led to stiff competition which resulted in firms engaging in unethical malpractices. The firms in their operations registered poor performance over the years. The main objective of the study was to model one year educational plan for State Insurance Company (SIC) clients by estimating a reasonable premium to the full year for which the company can also earn profit after selling the product. Among the insurance companies in the country, SIC-Life insurance Company was purposively selected as a sample to represent Ghana’s Insurance sector. The study took the form of longitudinal and documentary review that included among others, financial, annual and other corporate documents. The study revealed that SIC-Life Insurance Company sells four life products under Universal Life policies namely; Family Security Plan, Flexi-Child Education Policy, Ultimate Life Plan and Education Plan. Annual premiums estimated for the policy at 6% interest rate using principles of equivalence indicated the company can keep enough reserves as compare with their current operations. Profit testing analysis was performed to arrive at 1.38% profit margin of the education plan. The study revealed that Insurance companies manage risk through a number of ways including re-insurance and co-insurance. It is recommended that Insurance companies should conform to the ethical conduct and statutory regulations and procedures if they are to succeed, including optimal premium ratings, sound investment policies and risk management processes.

Source: KNUST
Modelling maize growth, development and yield for site specific fertilizer recommendation under Guinea Savanna Agro-ecological conditions in Ghana

The use of crop growth simulation models such as those incorporated into Decision Support System for Agro technology Transfer (DSSAT) are useful tools for assessing the impacts of crop productivity under various management systems. The maize growth model of DSSAT is CERES-Maize. To use it to predict fertilizer recommendation for maize (Zea mays L.) under Guinea savanna agro ecological conditions, data on maize growth, yield and development as well as data on soil and weather were collected from field experiment conducted during the 2010 growing season at Kpalisogou. The model was calibrated using various crop growth and development data observed at the field experiment at Kpalesawgu. Maize variety obatanpa was used in the experiment. The cultivar coefficient was calibrated with data collected from the field experiment. All measured data on phenology, grain yield and biomass from the field experiment were used for model validation and simulations. Validation results showed good agreement between predicted and measured yields with a NRMSE value of 0.181. Highest observed mean harvest maturity yield of 3831and 3795 kg/ha were obtained from plots which received 120-90-60 and 120-60-60 kg/ha N-P2O5-K2O respectively. However, the model under predicted weight per unit grain. The mean difference between observed and simulated by-product produced at maturity and top weight at maturity was significant (P ≤ 0.001). Sensitivity analysis results showed that the DSSAT model is highly sensitive to changes in weather variables such as daily maximum and minimum temperatures as well as solar radiation. However, the model was found to be least sensitive to rainfall. Similarly, the model was found to be sensitive to soil and genetic parameters of the cultivar. The DSSAT model was used to conduct economic and strategic analysis to ascertain the most economically and efficient fertilizer rate that should be applied to achieve maximum harvest maturity yield and maximum returns. The result showed that 120-90-60 kg/ha N-P2O5-K2O is the most strategically efficient. However, 120-60-0 kg/ha N-P2O5-K2O is the most economically efficient fertilizer rate in the Guinea savanna agroecological zone of Ghana with a minimum and maximum return of GH ₡-155 and GH ₡ 570 respectfully. However 120-90-60 kg/ha N-P2O5-K2O recorded and average return of GH₡ 509.

Source: KNUST