ghanaopendata/ghanaian-research-english huggingface dataset:
Modelling optimal trading strategy for a 2nd tier pension fund manager under iso-elastic utility function

The study sought to address portfolio optimization problem of a 2nd Tier Pension Fund Manager in Ghana who wanted to maximize his expected utility from his terminal wealth over all admissible trading strategies on a finite time interval. The research was done within the framework of Iso- elastic utility functions. The novelty of this study was that the interest rate was time dependent and was modeled within the spectral density domain. The drift process was modeled as a Gaussian process. A Monte Carlo simulation was considered for three stocks with a specified covariance structure under different scenarios; (log-normal, normal and exponential) for generating the stock prices. The main result of the simulation study indicated that, for any portfolio under these three scenarios with a log-normally distributed stock, the fund manager should invest larger proportion of their wealth in that stock irrespective of the level of risk aversion coefficient. Likewise, the market data fitted depicted the same results as shown in the simulation studies, hence, improving 2nd Tier Pension Fund Manager’s wealth to aid the 2nd Tier Pension contributors when they went on retirement.

Source: KNUST
Modelling of grain yield in maize

Grain yield is very important in maize production for breeders at the Crops Research Institute (CRI) of Ghana. However the yields of most varieties that are high yielding released by breeders does not perform so well after some of their release. This study was carried out to nd what causes the reduction in yield of these maize varieties of CRI over the years. An autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) was tted using a 20 year data (1995-2014) from CRI Fumesua. A multiple linear regression model was also tted to study factors a ecting grain yield in maize. Flowering data recorded on a trial eld at Fumesua research station in 2014 was used for the regression model. The study revealed that ARMA (2, 2) was found to be most suitable model for the di erenced series of maize yield. The multiple regression model showed that the factors plants height, days to owering and eld weight were statistically signi cant at 0.05 level. These factors (plants height, the days to ower and eld weight) are signi cant factors a ecting maize grain yield in Ghana.

Source: KNUST
Modelling Queuing system in Healthcare centres. A case study of the dental department of the Essikado Hospital, Sekondi

In this study, the queuing characteristics at the dental department of Essikado Hospital in the Sekondi-Takoradi Metropolis was analysed using a Single-server queuing Model. The data was collected over a period of one week, from 8:30 am-11:30 am each day. By using the queuing rule First-come, First-served as practiced by the case study and M/M/s queuing model, the performance mea- sures were calculated. The average mean arrival and mean service times were found to be 1.6 patients/hour and 4.4477 patients/hour respectively. The aver- age number of patients in the system and in the queue was 0.5619 patients and 0.2021 patients respectively. Also, the average time spent in the system and the average time it takes for service to start was 0.3512 hours and 0.1263 hours re- spectively. Recommendations made include obtaining a central tray setup system for instruments required for the di erent dental procedures done in the dental de- partment so as to reduce the time spent sorting them up thereby reducing the amount of time spent in queue and also increasing the number of dentist from one to two.

Source: KNUST
Modelling probability of default for microfinance institutions using the cox proportional hazard model

In the developing countries, Small and Medium Enterprise (SMEs) has been the main engine for the needed economic growth and development. In Ghana, few work has been done on the determinants of default for microfinance institutions. The loan default by clients with its consequences within of the MFI environment in Ghana is additionally not explored. This study attempts to determine the impact of borrower characteristics on default probability changes over the life of a loan by using Survival Analysis technique. Data was acquired from the XDS Credit Bureau (authorized by the Bank of Ghana) with variables such as Time (period in months), gender of customers, amount overdue, months in arrears and age of customers. Survival Analysis was utilized to investigate the extent of covariates on default over time and to predict the probability of the default in Non-Banking Financial Institutions (Micro-finance Institutions). The cox proportional hazard regression model was used to further explain the probability of default in Non-Banking Financial Institutions in Ghana This work demonstrated that the variables amount overdue (2.537), months in arrears (4.084), age (3.542) and gender (4.016) have highly statistically significant coefficients. There is a significant distinction between the default for male and female customers, in truth showing that Females have higher risk of defaulting than their male counterparts. This subsequently leading us to conclude that Gender, Month in arrears and Amount overdue does indeed determine the chance of defaulting in Non-Banking Financial Institutions in Ghana. This study concluded that older age, higher months in arrears and higher amount overdue are associated with poorer survival (default)

Source: KNUST
Modelling Sustainable Harvesting Strategies of a Fish Pond- a case study

In this thesis, we study sustainable harvesting strategies for tilapia fish farming. Modified logistic growth models with constant harvest rate as well as periodic harvesting have all been studied. Modified logistic growth model is applied to fishery systems and animal production where overcrowding and competition of resources are considered. Although, tilapia fish farming is being done on commercial basis in Ghana, there is much less literature in studying sustainable harvesting strategies. Specific objectives of this thesis were to develop a modified logistic growth model to include harvesting rates. Finally, to determine Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) of fish that will ensure the tilapia fish supply is continuous and sustainable. Analytical and numerical methods were used to determine the maximum sustainable yield of fish population in a pond. The existence of equilibrium solutions and their stabilities of the modified logistic growth model were theoretically studied. Periodic harvesting strategy is strongly recommended for the selected tilapia fish farm and inland fish harvesters. This thesis will help improve productivity and reduce risk from changes in sale price of tilapia fish.

Source: KNUST
Modelling queuing system in the banking industry: Case study Ghana Commercial Bank, Suame, Kumasi Ecobank, Ashtown, Kumasi and Barclays Bank of Ghana, Tanoso Branches

The issue of queuing is a bother to both management and customers in the delivery of service in the banking industry. The main idea or pivot of the queuing system is a teller who provides some services to a population of customers. This study therefore determined whether the present capacity level in the banking industry strike a balance between waiting and service time using Barclays Bank, Tanoso Branch, Ghana Commercial Bank, Suame Branch and Ecobank, Ashtown Branch as a case of interest. Primary data on five hundred and fifty-eight (558) customers arriving at the case of study throughout the selected hours and days were collected, taken into consideration; the arrival, processing and departure times of each customer. By using the queuing rule First-come, First-serve as practiced by the case study and M/M/s queuing model, the performance measures were calculated uncovering the applicability and extent of usage of queuing models in achieving customer satisfaction at lowest cost by minimizing waiting times, idle times, capacity utilization and queues at the bank. The study shows how the data collected at the respective dates possesses the Markovian properties, that is, Poisson and Exponential Distributions, hence the use of two “M’s” in the M/M/s queuing model. It determined the probabilistic analysis that the teller(s) is idle and also determined the probability of certain number of arrivals occurring at a given time. It was observed that any time the number of tellers at BBG an Ecobank were reduced to two during a peak day, the queue elongated resulting in high capacity utilization factor and hence a high waiting time. It is therefore recommended that management makes better decisions relating to number of tellers that would be necessary to serve customers during peak and off-peak hours, days and weeks.

Source: KNUST
Modelling the determinants of poverty in Ghana using the ordered logit model

A concise and universally accepted definition of poverty is elusive and an element of subjectivity is inevitable in arriving at a working definition. This is due to the fact that poverty affects many aspects of the human condition, including physical, moral and psychological. As a result of this, many variables have to be considered in determining the poor and the state of poverty. Many researchers have defined the poor as, that portion of the population that is unable to meet basic nutritional needs (Ojha. 1970, Reutlinger and Selowsky, 1976). Others view Poverty, in part, as a function of education, health, life expectancy and child mortality among others (Singer, 1975). Levels of expenditures and consumption are other criteria used to identify the poor (Musgrove and Ferber, 1 976). In Ghana, as in most Sub-Sahara countries, the subsistence view of poverty, which is concerned with the minimum provision needed to maintain health, good nutritional status and working capacity, is the most Prevalent (Brown, 1984; Semi, 1989). In other words there should be some standard for determining the minimum cost of an adequate diet in order to determine whether an individual or household is living above or below subsistence level (Brown, 1984).

Source: KNUST
Modelling the Distribution Of Banknotes By Bank of Ghana as a Transshipment Problem

The transportation problem is a special class of the linear programming problem. It deals with the situation in which a commodity is transported from Sources to Destinations. The transshipment problem is an expansion of the transportation problem where intermediate nodes which are also referred to as transshipment nodes are added to account for locations such as warehouses. My main objective is to model Bank of Ghana’s transportation of Banknotes as a transshipment problem and also minimize the cost in transportating them. I will formulate the Transshipment problem as a Transportation problem and use the Transportation algorithm to solve it. The Quantitative Method (QM) Software will be used to analyze the data. I conclude that if Bank of Ghana adapts this method, the cost of transporting Banknotes will be minimized.

Source: KNUST
Modelling the dynamics of online food delivery services on the spread of food‑borne diseases

We propose and analyze a deterministic mathematical model for the transmission of food-borne diseases in a population consisting of humans and flies. We employ the Caputo operator to examine the impact of governmental actions and online food delivery services on the transmission of food-borne diseases. The proposed model investigates important aspects such as positivity, boundedness, disease-free equilibrium, basic reproduction number and sensitivity analysis. The existence and uniqueness of a solution for the initial value problem is established using Banach and Schauder type fixed point theorems. Functional techniques are employed to demonstrate the stability of the proposed model under the Hyers–Ulam condition. For an approximate solution, the iterative fractional order Predictor–Corrector scheme is utilized. The simulation of this scheme is conducted using Matlab as the numeric computing environment, with various fractional order values ranging from 0.75 to 1. Over time, all compartments demonstrate convergence and stability. The numerical simulations highlight the necessity for the government to implement the most effective food safety control interventions. These measures could involve food safety awareness and training campaigns targeting restaurant managers, staff members involved in online food delivery, as well as food delivery personnel.

Source: KNUST
Modelling the Economic Growth in Ghana with the Solow Production Function.

The main objective of this study was to use the Solow’s production function (Augmented Cobb-Douglas production function) as a basis to model the economic growth of Ghana during the period 1990 to 2010. Economic growth around the world has not been equal for a long time. Some economies grow faster than others. Economists have predicted that the slower growing economies will eventually converge to the faster growing economies at some point in time. In this study, we model the economic growth of Ghana using the Solow production model and applying growth differential equations. Starting from the estimates of the parameters from other studies, the growth model was simulated for the period 1990 to 2010, using Matlab, SPSS and Excel spreadsheet. The estimations from the model were compared with the actual figures from the Ghana Statistical Service, World Bank and MOFEP. The model provides a good approximation of the dynamics of the Ghanaian economy for the 1990 to 2010 periods, with respect to the dynamics of the real aggregate GDP growth and to the ratios of the main macroeconomic variables, like production per worker, capital-output ratio or capital per worker. The results showed a very close relationship between the actual and calculated growth rates over the periods 1990 to 2010. The actual average growth rate over the period was 4.5% as compared to the calculated average value of 4.21%. Finally, the correlation coefficient between the actual growth rates and the calculated was 0.298, which indicates that they are correlated, but the strength of correlation was weak.

Source: KNUST
Modelling the Feed Mix for Poultry Production (The Case of Adama Musa Farms, Dormaa-Ahenkro in the Brong Ahafo Region of Ghana)

The poultry industry has a significant importance on national economy. It is a popular industry for the small holders with tremendous contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) and employment creation. Poultry feed cost represents over sixty (60) percent of the total cost of poultry production; consequently efficient feed formulation practice is required for a sustainable poultry industry. Many Ghanaian poultry farmers, however, employ inefficient methods like rule of thumb, experiences, and intuition to handle feed formulation problem. The aim of this thesis is to develop an optimization feed formulation model, using locally available feed ingredients for the Ghanaian poultry industry. To achieve this aim, secondary data were collected from the recommended nutrient requirements schedule from Birds and Veterinary service, Ghana limited. Based on this data, linear programming model for least cost rations for broilers was formulated. Ten (10) decision variables and eight (8) constraints were identified. The optimal solution of the linear programming model for the least cost starter ration gives three (3) per cent reduction in broiler starter feed formulation as compared to the existing method on the farm whiles the optimal solution of the linear programming model for the least cost finisher ration also gives about three (3) per cent reduction in broiler finisher feed formulation compared to the existing method on the farm.

Source: KNUST
Modelling the impact of protection and treatment strategies on transmission dyanamics of malaria in Ghana

Eradicating malaria from Ghana has proven to be a difficult challenge not only to the researchers and health organizations but also to government .Despite great advances over the last decade, including the training of all health staff to control the disease, Ghana remains one of the countries worst affected by malaria. The goal of this thesis is to develop a mathematical model to help to assess the potential impact of protection and treatment strategies on the dynamics of malaria in Ghana. A basic deterministic malaria model SEIR model was first formulated. The model consists of seven non-linear differential equations which describe the dynamics of malaria with 4 variables for humans and 3 variables for mosquitoes. Analysis of the model showed that there exists a domain where the model is epidemiologically and mathematically well-posed. Key to the analysis is the definition of the basic reproductive number 0 R , which was derived by use of next generation method. The basic reproduction number for Ghana is found to be R0 = 0.7397 hence malaria can be eliminated from Ghana. The disease-free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable. This means that malaria free society can be achieved. In order to assess the potential impact of protection and treatment strategies on the transmission dynamics of malaria, two intervention strategies ,the protected and treated classes were added to the basic malaria model to formulate SPEITR model which consists of nine non-linear differential equations.

Source: KNUST
Modelling the informal sector and energy consumption in Ghana

The International Monetary Fund (2017) defines the informal sector as unrecorded economic activities that possess monetary value and contribute to tax revenue and gross domestic product. This sector accounts for a huge percentage of economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa and given the numerous regulations on the formal sector it may grow further. Since the activities of the informal sector are unrecorded, how does its energy demand affect national energy demand? In answering this question, we rely on the autoregressive distributed lag esti mation technique to quantify the effect of the informal sector on energy consumption. We find that the informal sector exerts a 0.055% adverse effect on energy consumption. Further, we find that education, employment, and foreign direct investment are channels through which the informal sector affects energy consumption. The findings have relevant policy implications. First, since the growth of the informal sector decreases energy consumption, the economies of developing countries should be formalized to spur industrial energy consumption. Second, the national energy policies of Ghana and other developing countries should take into consideration the characteristics of the informal sector in conducting projections of energy demand.

Source: KNUST
Modelling the Irrigation Potential of Besease Wetlands

The harsh climate, shallow and erodible soils of low fertility uplands have led to farmers extending their cultivable areas to wetlands for optimal crop production since these systems have the potential for irrigation in the dry season. Inland valleys have been cited as having a high potential for the development of rice-based, small-holder farming systems at the village level, due to their specific hydrological conditions and relatively high soil fertility. To ensure its sustainable use, the physico-chemical and the hydrological processes of the valley bottom should be ascertained. The irrigation potential of wetlands was studied at Ejisu-Besease in the Ashanti Region of Ghana by analysing the hydrodynamics of the valley bottom through a groundwater flow modelling process using MODFLOW. Groundwater recharge estimates from the water table fluctuation method was used as the recharge input into the model. The results showed that annual water level rise ranged from 1105–3115 mm in 2009 and from 397–3070 mm in 2010. A range of specific yields were extracted from the values determined from the soil textural classification triangle. The estimated recharge for the study area ranged from 133–467 mm for the fourteen (14) piezometers, representing 9–31% of 2009 annual rainfall and 47.6–427.9 mm in 2010 representing 4–34 % of the annual rainfall. Groundwater recharge was also estimated using the Kalman filter method. Using the mathematical model developed, the infiltration parameters were determined. The infiltration factor for the years 2009 and 2010 varied from 0.0–16.70 % of the incident rainfall. The results from the groundwater flow model showed that groundwater levels ranged from 259.10–259.97 m in the wet season and 258.19–258.86 m in the dry season of the simulation period. It also exhibited a form of interaction between the inland valley wetland and the Oda River which varied from period to period depending on the river stage. Sensitivity analysis was performed, and model outputs were found to be highly sensitive to the parameters such as horizontal hydraulic conductivity, specific yield and specific storage. The hydrochemical study of the area revealed that alkaline earths exceed alkalis and weak acids exceed strong acids in groundwater which presented a CaHCO3 groundwater type. Results from the groundwater chemistry of the two boreholes indicated that the groundwater is of good quality for irrigation. The Inland Valley Bottom was also classified into three hydrological regimes as a management tool for developing wetlands for crop production. The regimes are WTF Class I acute slopes segment varying from 0–30 %, WTF Class II acute slopes segment varying from 30–45% and WTF Class III acute slope segment > 45 %. The study unravelled the relationship between recurrent spatial and temporal patterns of watertable response within the inland valley bottom and their controlling factors. It is concluded that a controlled water table offers a distinguishing criterion for the development of Inland Valley Bottoms for year round crop production.

Source: KNUST
Modelling the e ect of post-mortem contact on the spread of Ebola with quarantine as an intervention.

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a severe, often fatal disease in humans and other non-human primates caused by infection with any of the four identifi ed Ebola virus species of the family Filoviridae. This paper develops the SEIR and the SEIHDR models that investigate the e ffects of the ante-mortem contact and postmortem contact on the spread of the disease. We determine the reproduction number of the models. The equilibria and conditions for the existence of the equilibria are determined. We solve the models numerically and discuss the numerical simulations to elucidate certain scenarios. We also compare the results of the models to WHO data of con firmed cases for the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. It is observed that the SEIHDR model agrees better with the data than that of the SEIR model. Moreover, we formulate a new model, the SEIQDR model (a modifi cation of the SEIHDR Model) which incorporates quarantine as an intervention. We compare the SEIQDR model to the WHO data of con firmed cases for the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. The results of the SEIQDR model agrees better than that of the other models especially during the latter stages of the disease outbreak. Finally, we investigate the eff ect of vaccination on both the SEIHDR and the SEIQDR models. We discuss diff erent rates of vaccination using numerical simulations in order to predict the e ffect of vaccination on the infected individuals over time. The SEIQDR model with vaccination indicates a lower threshold which should not be less than 25% as compared to that of the SEIHDR model with vaccination which should not be less than 65%. It is observed that vaccination as an additional strategy helps to control the disease more eff ectively.

Source: KNUST