ghanaopendata/ghanaian-research-english huggingface dataset:
Modeling the Effects of Land Cover Modifications and Sea Level Rise on Coastal Mangrove Productivity: A Case Study of Anlo Beach Complex Wetland, Western Region, Ghana

In this work, the underlying mechanisms in coastal wetlands were examined in relation to the long-term mangroves’ response to anthropogenic activities and sea level rise. Geographic information systems and dynamic modeling methodologies were used. The complexity of mangroves makes it difficult to assess mangrove forests in tropical coastal locations using simply passive remote sensing techniques. In order to overcome these difficulties, a unique GIS method called GEE that combines optical satellite imagery and synthetic aperture radar was introduced. The effect of tidal currents on the mangrove ecosystem was investigated using a process-based model. Three model scenarios of 100 tidal cycle each were run, with three variables consisting of no sea level rise (constant), low sea level rise (0.3 m), and extremely high sea level rise (2.5 m). The findings indicate that between 2009 and 2019, the area of the mangroves decreased by roughly 16.9%. Overall accuracy of 99.1%, 84.6%, and 98.9% were recorded for three scenarios of 2019 classification. Mangrove height and AGB show that in year 2000, height and AGB range from 2.0 to 12.7 m and 0 - 368 mg ha-1, respectively, while in 2020, height and AGB ranged from 2.0 - 6.3 m and 0 – 88 mg ha-1 respectively. The dynamic modeling results show that the relative hydro-period for the scenarios "no sea level rise (constant)”, "low sea level rise (0.3 m)" and "extremely high sea level rise (2.5 m)" was 64%, 65% and 71%, respectively

Source: UCC
Modeling the effects of land cover modifications and Sea level rise on coastal mangrove productivity: a Case study of anlo beach complex wetland, western Region, Ghana

In this work, the underlying mechanisms in coastal wetlands were examined in relation to the long-term mangroves' response to anthropogenic activities and sea level rise. Geographic information systems and dynamic modeling methodologies were used. The complexity of mangroves makes it difficult to assess mangrove forests in tropical coastal locations using simply passive remote sensing techniques. In order to overcome these difficulties, a unique GIS method called GEE that combines optical satellite imagery and synthetic apelture radar was introduced. The effect of tidal currents on the mangrove ecosystem was investigated using a process-based model. Three model scenarios of 100 tidal cycle each were run, with three variables consisting of no sea level rise (constant), low sea level rise (0.3 m), and extremely high sea level rise (2.5 m). The findings indicate that between 2009 and 2019, the area of the mangroves decreased by roughly 16.9%. Overall accuracy of 99.1 %,84.6%, and 98.9% were recorded for three scenarios of 2019 classification. Mangrove height and AGB show that in year 2000, height and AGB range from 2.0 to 12.7 m and 0 - 368 mg ha-', respectively, while in 2020, height and AGB ranged from 2.0 - 6.3 m and 0 - 88 mg ha-' respectively. The dynamic modeling results show that the relative hydro-period for the scenarios "no sea level rise (constant)", "low sea level rise (0.3 m)" and "extremely high sea level rise (2.5 m)" was 64%, 65% and 71 %, respectively.

Source: UCC
Modeling unsaturated zone water movement in the floodplain wetlands of the Volta Basin

The unsaturated zone of floodplain wetlands in the White Volta River basin provides an inextricable link between basin hydrology and the sustenance of plant growth. The HYDRUS-1D model was used to derive water budgets and to estimate fluxes to understand the hydrological complexities of these wetland systems. The model result indicates Spatio-temporal variation in the volume of vertical fluxes. In 2005, the estimate for average simulated flux was 0.29 cm/month in June and 1.23 cm/month in July. Consequently, the hydraulic head increased from 138.94 m to 139.30 m for the period from June to July 2005. For all sample sites, the increase in hydraulic head occurs within July and October, coinciding with high surface water fluxes. From the calculated water balance, the average monthly estimate of bottom flux was 0.01 cm/month for 2004 and 1.1 cm/month for 2005. The flow through the unsaturated zone and discharging into the subsurface water system has a high dependency on both the soil structure and the volume of water infiltrating through the surface; the highest discharge is within the period of highest water input

Source: UCC
Modelling age at first marriage among Ghanaians in Urban Southern Ghana

The paper obtains models for determining age at first marriage (AFM) among Ghanaians in urban southern Ghana. Logistic regression models are developed for determining marriage under various circumstances and socio-economic changes that are necessitated by marriage. It also determines distributions that fit AFM and intended age of marriage (IAM) among various sub-populations in the study area. Generally, the distribution fit of AFM for males and females are Frechet and Cauchy, respectively, with corresponding expected ages of 30.8 and 28.0. Distributions have also been determined for IAM for males and females. It is found that both sexes have almost the same average IAM of about 27.5 years but with different distributions. Thus, respondents generally experience delayed marriages. The results show that in all models, one‟s religion is an overriding predictor of marrying under various circumstances. Other variables that are influential regarding issues of marriage are gender, level of extended responsibility, and level of education. One may therefore be guided in these variables in order to achieve the desired AFM

Source: UCC
Modelling and Assessing the Trends in Wave Climate Over The Past Four Decades in the Coast of Gulf of Guinea

ABSTRACT The focus of this study is the assessment of the past wave conditions in the Gulf of bGuinea region of the West African coast to get a better understanding of the trends the waves have been following over the past four decades. The third-generation spectral wave model, WAVEWATCH III (WW3), was used to hindcast the wave climate between 1st January, 1980 – 31st December, 2019, which provided data on significant wave height (Hs), mean wave period (Tm), mean wave direction and mean wind speed (U10). Validation results confirmed that WW3 is an efficient model for simulating wave condition as it agrees well with observation and other datasets like ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation). The trend analyses done showed that the Hs with average values of 1.0836 m, 0.9312 m and 1.1913 m on annual, winter and summer bases increased at rates of 2.6 x 10-3 m, 1.6 x 10-3 m and 3.4 x 10-3 m per year, respectively. For Tm, average values of 5.3897 s, 5.3876 s and 5.3911 s for annual, winter and summer changed at rates of 6.1353 x 10-4 s, -1.7 x 10-3 s and 2.3 x 10-3 s per year, respectively. Mean values of 4.7001 m/s. 4.2344 m/s and 5.0292 m/s were estimated for U10 on annual, winter and summer bases increasing at rates of 3.5 x 10-3 m/s, 4.2 x 10-3 m/s and 3.1 x 10-3 m/s per year, respectively. The wave direction is also observed to be predominantly S-SW mostly originating from the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The statistical projections done for various return period showed that this increase will continue into the future with higher risks to coastal and offshore structures by the end of the century in 2100.

Source: UCC
Modelling consumer price index inflation in Ghana

This paper aims to develop a model for CPI inflation of Ghana using data on CPI inflation obtain from the Bank of Ghana database within the period 2000 to 2011. Based on the method of maximum likelihood and the lower lags of the ACF and PACF, ARIMA (0, 1, 1) X (0, 1, 1)12 was identified as the tentative model for the CPI inflation data in Ghana. The diagnostic check revealed that the residuals of the fitted model have zero mean, constant variance, and free from higher-order serial correlation. The Ljung-Box statistics and the time series plot of the model residuals clearly indicated no significant departure from white noise. The model was found to be free from conditional heteroscedasticity following the ARCH-LM test

Source: UCC
Modelling Hepatitis B virus in the Presence of Regular Interventions.

Hepatitis B infection remains a global problem since the 1990s in Asia and Africa and the reasons for which the hepatitis B virus disease is still in existence remains poorly understood. Mathematical models of HBV transmission dynamics have focused on the influence of prevention and control measures including vaccination, antiviral treatment and linkage to care in certain regions and countries. However, understanding the important role played by imperfect vaccination in describing the hepatitis B virus transmission dynamics is beneficial as a control strategy. In this study, an SV ICTR epidemiological model is proposed to model the spread of the hepatitis B virus disease. The basic reproduction number, R0 and the equilibria of the proposed model are discussed. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium point is both locally and globally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1 while the endemic equilibrium point is proved to be locally asymptotically stable when R0 > 1. However, when R0 = 1, the model system shows a backward bifurcation phenomenon. Results of the numerical simulations reveal that increasing both the vaccination and treatment rates reduces the populations of both the acutely infected and chronic carriers which eventually fall to zero over a given period. Hence, combining both vaccination and treatment with the use of a vaccine with high vaccine efficacy are essential in controlling the hepatitis B virus disease.

Source: UCC
Modelling Loan-Defaulting Tendencies among Customers of A Local Ghanaian Bank

In Ghana, some local banks lack a comprehensive credit risk management framework that includes the use of credit scoring; hence, the purpose of this study is to develop a credit scoring tool derived from a binary logistic regression model to reduce credit risk exposure for banks in general and local banks in particular. A review of the literature on credit scoring models or classifiers revealed that the specificity and sensitivity of the developed models are not explored further to reveal insights into the optimal cut-off point of the model. This study seeks to fill this gap by further exploring the specificity and sensitivity of the developed model and offers explanations and insights about the variations of the optimal cut-off point. The study makes a case for using the optimal cut-off point as a practical decision point for financial institutions. Secondary data on borrowers were obtained from a local bank and examined to identify its retail customers' demographic and behavioural characteristics based on the minimum Know Your Customer (KYC) required by the central bank. The binary logistic regression model developed from the data had an overall classification accuracy of 93% at a cut-off point of 0.5; however, the sensitivity measure was barely 23%. Typically, resampling techniques are employed to deal with the imbalance, however, in this study a plot of sensitivity and specificity against the probability of default is used to derive an optimal cut-off point. The performance of the logistic regression model at the derived optimal cut-off point was found to be similar to other binary models’ performance that used resampling techniques.

Source: UCC
Modelling non-linear spatial market integration and equilibrium processes in hidden Markov framework

Along the basic rationale of the Enke-Samuelson-Takajama-Judge spatial equilibrium theory and the dynamic conceptualizations made from arbitrage processes, the study explores regime-switching techniques in hidden Markov framework. This is motivated by complex non-linear structure inherent in market integration processes, which is derived from multiple equilibria conditions, and transaction costs constrained threshold autoregressive (TAR) effects. These place theoretical limitations on current time series empirical models that are applied in market integration studies. In equilibrium representation, the non-linearities imposed by both alternating rent levels and switching adjustment parameters are directly accommodated. Two synthesized time series market data sets of varying levels of non-linear structures are used to highlight the strengths and limitations of the Markov variants vis-à-vis the band-TAR models that have currently dominated market integration analysis. The former model could capture alternating adjustment processes implied by the relatively complex non-linear market data set while the later produced mixed results

Source: UCC
Modelling spatio-temporal heterogeneities in groundwater quality in Ghana: a multivariate chemometric approach

Chemometric techniques were applied to evaluate the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in groundwater quality data for approximately 740 goldmining and agriculture-intensive locations in Ghana. The strongest linear and monotonic relationships occurred between Mn and Fe. Sixty-nine per cent of total variance in the dataset was explained by four variance factors: physicochemical properties, bacteriological quality, natural geologic attributes and anthropogenic factors (artisanal goldmining). There was evidence of significant differences in means of all trace metals and physicochemical parameters (p < 0.001) between goldmining and non-goldmining locations. Arsenic and turbidity produced very high value F’s demonstrating that ‘physical properties and chalcophilic elements’ was the function that most discriminated between non-goldmining and goldmining locations. Variations in Escherichia coli and total coliforms were observed between the dry and wet seasons. The overall predictive accuracy of the discriminant function showed that non-goldmining locations were classified with slightly better accuracy (89%) than goldmining areas (69.6%). There were significant differences between the underlying distributions of Cd, Mn and Pb in the wet and dry seasons. This study emphasizes the practicality of chemometrics in the assessment and elucidation of complex water quality datasets to promote effective management of groundwater resources for sustaining human health

Source: UCC
Modelling spatio-temporal heterogeneities in groundwater quality in Ghana: a multivariate chemometric approach

Chemometric techniques were applied to evaluate the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in groundwater quality data for approximately 740 goldmining and agriculture-intensive locations in Ghana. The strongest linear and monotonic relationships occurred between Mn and Fe. Sixty-nine per cent of total variance in the dataset was explained by four variance factors: physicochemical properties, bacteriological quality, natural geologic attributes and anthropogenic factors (artisanal goldmining). There was evidence of significant differences in means of all trace metals and physicochemical parameters (p < 0.001) between goldmining and non-goldmining locations. Arsenic and turbidity produced very high value F’s demonstrating that ‘physical properties and chalcophilic elements’ was the function that most discriminated between non-goldmining and goldmining locations. Variations in Escherichia coli and total coliforms were observed between the dry and wet seasons. The overall predictive accuracy of the discriminant function showed that non-goldmining locations were classified with slightly better accuracy (89%) than goldmining areas (69.6%). There were significant differences between the underlying distributions of Cd, Mn and Pb in the wet and dry seasons. This study emphasizes the practicality of chemometrics in the assessment and elucidation of complex water quality datasets to promote effective management of groundwater resources for sustaining human health. Frederick Ato Armah (corresponding author) Department of Environmental Science, School of Biological Sciences, College of Agriculture & Natural Sciences, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana E-mail: farmah@ucc.edu.gh Arnold Paintsil Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Spencer Engineering Building, Western University, London, Ontario N6A 5B9, Canada David Oscar Yawson Department of Soil Science, School of Agriculture, College of Agriculture & Natural Sciences, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana Michael Osei Adu Department of Crop Science, School of Agriculture, College of Agriculture & Natural Sciences, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana Justice O. Odoi Nature Today Ghana, P.O. Box OS 1455, Osu, Accra, Ghana

Source: UCC
Modelling the Impact of Modern Energy Services and Technologies Adoption on Final Energy Demand in Ghana

The uneven distribution of fossil fuels and other energy resources, which most economies currently rely on, generates many questions as to whether the current energy transition targets can meet future energy demands. Despite Ghana’s endowment in rich energy resources, the economy still encounters significant challenges in achieving universal access to sustainable, affordable, modern, and reliable energy services. There is no clear understanding regarding the potential impact of transitioning to modern energy services on final energy demand of Ghana. Using 2019 as the base year, the study modelled the effects of adopting modern energy services and technologies on final energy demand in Ghana. The study used cross-sectional data from 2019 and developed scenarios to forecast future energy demand of Ghana. The Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2) was used to project the future final energy demand from 2019 to 2070. The findings indicated a high surge in total future final energy demand across all scenarios. The study revealed that while penetration of modern ES is more efficient, their adoption can lead to high overall energy consumption and energy per capita due to greater convenience and higher usage rates. The study recommends that energy efficiency technologies must be complemented with attitudinal change to prevent the rebound effect from efficiency measures.

Source: UCC
Modelling the variability of Fuveme beach in the lower Volta Delta, Ghana

Issues of coastal erosion have been on the rise globally due to climate change and anthropogenic activities such as the construction of dams, harbours and coastal defences. According to multiple reports, the Fuveme coastline in eastern Ghana, West Africa, has been experiencing regular flooding and erosion since the mid-1880s. The intense erosion and flooding at Fuveme have been attributed to reduced fluvial sediment transport to the area. Recently, the sea breached a nearshore sandbar on the coast creating a ‘new estuary’ where tidal waves now move water and sediment between the sea and the estuary. This seems to be exacerbating erosion and flooding. The aim of this research was to assess the geomorphic variabilities surrounding the ‘new estuary’. Hydrodynamic conditions (wave heights, tides and currents) off the coast of Fuveme were retrieved from ERA 5 website and aerial photographs of the beach were collected from October 2021 to October 2022. Sediment dynamics were assessed using MIKE 21 software to predict the trend of sediment movement along the coast of Fuveme. The results showed significant sediment exchange with -18.02 ± 0.25 m/yr shoreline erosion, 126, 979 m3 and -35,359 m3 sediment volume changes over the period as a consequence of the overtopping/flooding and the hydrodynamic conditions that are resident on the Fuveme Beach. The magnitude and direction of sediment total load were simulated with results showing higher sediment rates on the eastern stretch of the area. At the end of the study, wave action was found to be the principal hydrodynamic condition that affected the coast of Fuveme. Further studies are recommended to ensure a deeper understanding of the area’s beach dynamics and for better coastal management purposes in the Volta Delta as a whole.

Source: UCC
Models for Human Resource Development Practice: Contributions from the American Society for Training and Development (ASTD)

This paper addresses the relevant issues pertaining to the ASTD competency studies sponsored by the American Society for Training and Development in the United States. The issues covered include the definition of HRD and related concepts, an overview of the eight most relevant HRD competency studies conducted between 1970 and 2015, the contribution of ASTD studies to HRD practice, components of HRD, the criticisms as well as the development of HRD practitioner roles and competencies. Referred journal articles, books and unpublished doctoral dissertations were reviewed in this study. It was found that the HRD profession is undergoing an evolutionary transformation that requires the attention of both practitioners and academicians. The journey to establishing HRD as a separate field of professional study and practice has just begun. The paper therefore, seeks to contribute theoretically to the emergent role of ASTD competency models in ensuring the growth of HRD as a field of academic study and professional practice.

Source: UCC
The Moderating Effect of Acculturation Strategies on the Relationship Between Newcomer Adjustment and Employee Behavior

Acculturation begins when people find themselves in a cultural setting other than theirs, and to demonstrate acceptable behaviors, one of two strategies is adopted: adapting to the new environment or retain one’s own culture. On the basis of these two, four strategies have been proposed. The current article examined the moderation effect of two of these acculturation strategies, integration and separation, on the relationship between newcomer adjustment, and work-related anxiety and turnover intentions. The study was in two folds, the first explored the moderation effect among new employees in general, notwithstanding their immediate past working experience; and the second part separated the sample based on two criteria: those prior to their current role were working in another firm (work-to-work employees) and those who just come directly from school (school-to-work employees). The sample was made up of 250 employees who had spent not less than 6 months and not more than 12 months in their current role, drawn from the private banking and insurance firms in Ghana. The PROCESS analysis of the data revealed that integration moderated the relationship between newcomer adjustment and work-related anxiety and turnover intentions among all samples. Separation moderated the relationships in all cases, but for the relationship between newcomer adjustment and turnover intentions in study 1 and among school-to-work employees. The evidence from this article points to the fact that the acculturation strategy that newcomers adopt has an effect on the relationship between their level of adjustment and some organizational outcomes; however, a slight difference exists if their immediate past engagement is considered.

Source: UCC