ghanaopendata/ghanaian-research-english huggingface dataset:
A fractional order Ebola transmission model for dogs and humans

Ebola is a serious disease that affects people; in many cases, it results in death. Ebola outbreaks have also occurred in communities where residents keep pets, particularly dogs. Due to a lack of food, the dogs must hunt for food. Dogs eat the internal organs of wildlife that the locals have killed and eaten, as well as small dead animals that are found within the communities which may contain the Ebola virus. This study introduces a mathematical model based on the Caputo–Fabrizio derivative to describe the Ebola transmission dynamics between dogs and humans. The model’s existence and the uniqueness of its solution were investigated using fixedpoint theory. Furthermore, through the Sumudu transform criterion, we established that the Caputo–Fabrizio Ebola model is Picard stable. Some qualitative analysis was also carried out to investigate the Ebola propagation trend in the dog-to-human model. The proposed model is fitted to the reported Ebola incidence in Uganda between October 15, 2022, and November 2, 2022. The Ebola reproduction number obtained using the cumulative data was 2.65. It is noticed that as the fractional order reduces, the Ebola reproduction number also reduces. We derived a numerical scheme for our model using the two-step Lagrange interpolation. It has been discovered that the fractional orders significantly influence the model, indicating that natural occurrences could affect the dynamics of Ebola. It is observed that when the recovery rate is enhanced, such as through the hospitalisation of Ebola-infected individuals, the disease will reduce. Finally, as we ensure a reduction in the contact rate among the dog’s compartments, the disease does not spread adiabatically. Therefore, we urge that quarantine measures be put in place to control interactions among the dogs during the outbreak.

Source: KNUST
A Framework for On-Site Communication Planning for Construction Managers in Ghana.

In modern day construction, some of the important elements contributing to the poor performance of the construction industry that have been identified are ineffective communication practices, the organizational fragmentation and the lack of integration between design and construction processes. In an industry such as construction, interaction is mainly characterised by unfamiliar groups of people who come together in a purpose driven environment within short periods before they are divided into several groups to perform their various roles towards the achievement of a construction project. Accordingly, failure in project communication can lead to the failure of the project as whole. Communication does not only aim to keep members of the project team updated in terms of progress, but to as well enhance the ownership of project decisions. This study aimed at developing a framework for on site communication to aid the planning of communication during the construction phase. The study adopted the quantitative method of research; in congruence with similar construction communication studies conducted. The primary data collection tool used for the study was the questionnaire. Data were collected from construction managers of D1 and D2 firms operating in the Kumasi and Accra Metropolises in Ghana yielding a response rate of 86 percent. Statistical tools used in data analysis included the mean score; quadrant analysis, factor analysis and descriptive statistics. The key findings of the study led to the development of a framework aimed at enabling construction managers to plan communication during the construction stage. The developed framework serves as an aid to construction practitioners to plan communication and help in allocating responsibility for information management. It also serves as a reference point through the provision of sources for which information can be assessed. Theoretically, further study has been recommended to validate the proposed framework on real life projects.

Source: KNUST
A hybrid forecasting technique for infection and death from the mpox virus.

Objectives: The rising of new cases and death counts from the mpox virus (MPV) is alarming. In order to mitigate the impact of the MPV it is essential to have information of the virus’s future position using more precise time series and stochastic models. In this present study, a hybrid forecasting system has been developed for new cases and death counts for MPV infection using the world daily cumulative confirmed and death series. Methods: The original cumulative series was decomposed into new two subseries, such as a trend component and a stochastic series using the Hodrick–Prescott filter. To assess the efficacy of the proposed models, a comparative analysis with several widely recognized benchmark models, including auto-regressive (AR) model, auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model, non-parametric auto-regressive (NPAR) model and artificial neural network (ANN), was performed. Results: The introduction of two novel hybrid models, HPF1 1 and HPF4 3, which demonstrated superior performance compared to all other models, as evidenced by their remarkable results in key performance indicators such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), is a significant advancement in disease prediction. Conclusion: The new models developed can be implemented in forecasting other diseases in the future. To address the current situation effectively, governments and stakeholders must implement significant changes to ensure strict adherence to standard operating procedures (SOPs) by the public. Given the anticipated continuation of increasing trends in the coming days, these measures are essential for mitigating the impact of the outbreak.

Source: KNUST
A hierarchical intervention scheme based on epidemic severity in a community network

As there are no targeted medicines or vaccines for newly emerging infectious diseases,isolation among communities (villages, cities, or countries) is one of themost effectiveintervention measures. As such, the number of intercommunity edges (NIE) becomesone of themost important factor in isolating a place since it is closely related to normallife. Unfortunately, how NIE affects epidemic spread is still poorly understood. In this paper, we quantitatively analyzed the impact of NIE on infectious disease transmissionby establishing a four-dimensional SIR edge-based compartmental model with two communities. The basic reproduction number R0( l ) is explicitly obtained subjectto NIE l . Furthermore, according to R0(0) with zero NIE, epidemics spreadcould be classified into two cases. When R0(0) > 1 for the case 2, epidemics occurwith at least one of the reproduction numbers within communities greater than one,and otherwise when R0(0) < 1 for case 1, both reproduction numbers within communitiesare less than one. Remarkably, in case 1, whether epidemics break out stronglydepends on intercommunity edges. Then, the outbreak threshold in regard to NIEis also explicitly obtained, below which epidemics vanish, and otherwise break out.The above two cases form a severity-based hierarchical intervention scheme for epidemics.It is then applied to the SARS outbreak in Singapore, verifying the validityof our scheme. In addition, the final size of the system is gained by demonstrating theexistence of positive equilibrium in a four-dimensional coupled system. Thoretical results are also validated through numerical simulation in networks with the Poisson and Power law distributions, respectively. Our results provide a new insight into controlling epidemics.

Source: KNUST
A Mathematical Analysis of the Impact of Immature Mosquitoes on the Transmission Dynamics of Malaria

This study delves into the often-overlooked impact of immature mosquitoes on the dynamics of malaria transmission. By employing a mathematical model, we explore how these aquatic stages of the vector shape the spread of the disease. Our analytical findings are corroborated through numerical simulations conducted using the Runge–Kutta fourth-order method in MATLAB. Our research highlights a critical factor in malaria epidemiology: the basic reproduction number R0 . We demonstrate that when R0 is below unity R0 < 1 , the disease-free equilibrium exhibits local asymptotic stability. Conversely, when R0 surpasses unity R0 > 1 , the disease-free equilibrium becomes unstable, potentially resulting in sustained malaria transmission. Furthermore, our analysis covers equilibrium points, stability assessments, bifurcation phenomena, and sensitivity analyses. These insights shed light on essential aspects of malaria control strategies, offering valuable guidance for effective intervention measures.

Source: KNUST
A Macro-Micro Analysis of Stigma in Buruli Ulcer and Yaws in the Atwima Mponua District of Ghana

Stigma related to Neglected Tropical Diseases has been a global concern for several decades now. Notwithstanding, it has remained an issue, contributing to poorer health outcomes and posing a significant psychosocial burden on patients and their care-givers. However, studies have remained sparse and aimed at investigating stigma in selected singular diseases within limited social contexts. This study therefore aimed to holistically explore stigma associated with buruli ulcer and yaws. A concurrent mixed methods design was adopted. Three-hundred and eighty-four (384) community members from 16 communities within the Atwima Mponua district were surveyed to understand community knowledge, beliefs and attitudes reinforcing stigma. Additionally, in-depth interviews were conducted for 31 past and active buruli ulcer and yaws patients to explore the experiences, effects and coping strategies they used in managing stigma. Misconceptions in community knowledge were associated with stigmatizing attitudes towards patients. Levels and types of stigma however, varied between buruli ulcer and yaws. Common manifestations of stigma were exclusion from group participation, name-calling, teasing, discrimination and avoidance. Stigma experiences led to negative effects including psychosocial burden, academic underachievement and strained social relationships between affected people and social groups. However, increased health seeking behavior was also recorded as patients sought to overcome disease stigma attaining cure. However, patients coped with stigma through problem focused (concealment, confrontation, selective disclosure and information management) and emotion-focused strategies (religion and self-isolation), which contributed to mental health suffering among patients Education is required to increase community knowledge and awareness of skin NTDs. There is the need to incorporate and strengthen psychosocial measures in the management of affected persons

Source: KNUST
A mathematical model of corruption dynamics endowed with fractal–fractional derivative

Numerous organisations across the globe have significant challenges about corruption, characterised by a systematic, endemic, and pervasive nature that permeates various societal establishments. Hence, we propose the fractional order model of corruption, which encompasses the involvement of corrupt individuals across various stages of education and employment. Specifically, we examine the presence of corruption among children in elementary schools, youths in tertiary institutions, adults in civil services, adults in government and public offices, and individuals who have renounced their involvement in corrupt practices. The basic reproduction number of the system was determined by utilising the next-generation matrix. The strength number was obtained by calculating the second derivative of the corruption-related compartments. The examined model solution’s existence, uniqueness, and stability were established using the Krasnoselski fixed point theorem, the Banach contraction principle, and the Ulam–Hyers theorem, respectively. Based on the numerous figures presented, our simulations indicate a positive correlation between the decline in fractal– fractional order and the increase in the number of individuals susceptible to corruption. This phenomenon results in an increase in the prevalence of corruption among designated sectors of the general population. The persistence of corruption in society is a significant challenge to its eradication, as individuals who see personal gains from engaging in corrupt practices tend to exhibit a recurring inclination towards such behaviour. Nevertheless, it is recommended that to mitigate corruption within various corruption-prone subcategories, there is a need to enhance the level of consciousness and promotion of anti-corruption measures throughout all societal establishments.

Source: KNUST
A Mixture of Clayton, Gumbel, and Frank Copulas: A Complete Dependence Model

Knowledge of the dependence between random variables is necessary in the area of risk assessment and evaluation. Some of the existing Archimedean copulas, namely the Clayton and the Gumbel copulas, allow for higher correlations on the extreme left and right, respectively. In this study, we use the idea of convex combinations to build a hybrid Clayton–Gumbel–Frank copula that provides all dependence scenarios from existing Archimedean copulas. (e corresponding density and conditional distribution functions of the derived models for two random variables, as well as an estimator for the proportion parameter associated with the proposed model, are also derived. (e results show that the proposed model is able to show any case of dependence by providing coefficients for the upper tail and lower tail dependence.

Source: KNUST
A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF COVID-19 TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS WITH EFFECTS OF AWARENESS AND VACCINATION PROGRAM

This study introduces a deterministic mathematical model for understanding the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, con sidering the influence of vaccination and awareness program, which target susceptible individuals. The model is based on a system of differential equations, resulting in an SVEIR model. Through qualitative analysis, various aspects of the model, such as disease-free equilibrium, endemic equilibrium, basic reproduction number, and local and global stability, were thoroughly explored. The disease-free equilibrium is proven to be both locally and globally stable when R0 < 1, while it ∼becomes unstable when R0 > 1. Simulation results demonstrate that the combination of vaccination and awareness programs emerges as the most effective approach to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 within the population.

Source: KNUST
A Multi-objective Optimization Approach to Workflow Scheduling in Clouds Considering Fault Recovery

Workflow scheduling is one of the challenging problems in cloud computing, especially when service reliability is considered. To improve cloud service reliability, fault tolerance techniques such as fault recovery can be employed. Practically, fault recovery has impact on the performance of workflow scheduling. Such impact deserves detailed research. Only few research works on workflow scheduling consider fault recovery and its impact. In this paper, we investigate the problem of workflow scheduling in clouds, considering the probability that cloud resources may fail during execution. We formulate this problem as a multi-objective optimization model. The first optimization objective is to minimize the overall completion time and the second one is to minimize the overall execution cost. Based on the proposed optimization model, we develop a heuristic-based algorithm called Min-min based time and cost tradeoff (MTCT). We perform extensive simulations with four different real world scientific workflows to verify the validity of the proposed model and evaluate the performance of our algorithm. The results show that, as expected, fault recovery has significant impact on the two performance criteria, and the proposed MTCT algorithm is useful for real life workflow scheduling when both of the two optimization objectives are considered

Source: KNUST
A multi-state model of a mortgage institution in Ghana.

The abnormal high rate of mortgage lending in the mortgage industry in Ghana which was under rated in the financial sector led to the foreclosure and sale of mortgaged properties. This thesis develops a transition probability Markov chain analysis to mortgage loans classification and performance. The transition matrix obtained shows that classified loans switch from one status to another is possible and recommended the means by which foreclosure of properties could be reduced to the barest minimum or avoided altogether.

Source: KNUST
A multi-phenotype genome-wide association study of clades causing tuberculosis in a Ghanaian- and South African cohort

Despite decades of research and advancements in diagnostics and treatment, tuberculosis remains a major public health concern. New computational methods are needed to interrogate the intersection of host- and bacterial genomes. Paired host genotype datum and infecting bacterial isolate information were analysed for associations using a multinomial logistic regression framework implemented in SNPTest. A cohort of 853 admixed South African participants and a Ghanaian cohort of 1359 participants were included. Two directly genotyped variants, namely rs529920 and rs41472447, were identified in the Ghanaian cohort as being statistically significantly associated with risk for infection with strains of different members of the MTBC. Thus, a multinomial logistic regression using paired host-pathogen data may prove valuable for investigating the complex relationships driving infectious disease.

Source: KNUST
A Modal Approach To Price An Option In Continuous Time

Average value options or Asian options have been priced using geometric and arithmetic averages of the underlying asset. However, these methods do not give accurate results especially in very low volatility regimes. In this study, we develop a new option pricing model based on the modal average of the underlying asset to price options. Using data from the NASDAQ in the United States of America we use the proposed model to price options sold on some stocks listed on the exchanges using software. The results consistently showed that for volatilities less than 3% of the underlying asset, the modal average option pricing model gives a better option price when compared to existing average option pricing models. Moreover, the modal average consistently does better at all levels of volatility when compared to the Black-Scholes model. We further proved analytically that the modal average model indeed does better than the geometric or arithmetic average models especially for low volatility stocks.

Source: KNUST
A multidimensional study of public satisfaction with the healthcare system: a mixed-method inquiry in Ghan

Background: Many governments in sub-Saharan Africa have recently sought to improve their health systems by increasing investment in healthcare facilities and introducing social insurance programmes. However, little is known about the impact of these intended improvements on public perceptions about the healthcare systems. This article examines whether and why people of diferent socioeconomic and ideological backgrounds are satisfed (or not) with the current healthcare system in Ghana from a social ecological perspective. Method: Data were elicited from a cross-sectional mixed-method study conducted in four regions in Ghana in 2018. We used ordinal logistic regression and thematic analysis techniques to analyse the data. Results: Satisfaction with the healthcare system was generally low. From our quantitative study, intrapersonal factors (e.g., being older and having good health and well-being status); interpersonal factors (e.g., linking social capital); community factors (e.g., living in rural areas); and organisational and public policy factors (e.g., trust in the health system, favouring welfare policies, and being interested in politics) were positively associated with satisfaction with the healthcare system. These were corroborated by the qualitative study, which showed that poor attitudes of health personnel, fnancial constraints, perceived poor health facilities, and perceived inefcacy of services contribute to dis‑ satisfaction with the healthcare system. Conclusion: Strategies to improve satisfaction with the healthcare system in Ghana should incorporate ecological perspectives by considering factors such as demographic profle, health needs, political orientation, issues of trust in the healthcare system, and the dynamics and impact of social relationships of populations concerned.

Source: KNUST
A Novel Image Encryption Technique Based on Cyclic Codes over Galois Field

In the modern world, the security of the digital image is vital due to the frequent communication of digital products over the open network. Accelerated advancement of digital data exchange, the importance of information security in the transmission of data, and its storage has emerged. Multiple uses of the images in the security agencies and the industries and the security of the confidential image data from unauthorized access are emergent and vital. In this paper, Bose Chaudhary Hocquenghem (BCH) codes over the Galois field are used for image encryption. )e BCH codes over the Galois field construct MDS (maximum distance separable) matrices and secret keys for image encryption techniques. )e encrypted image is calculated, by contrast, correlation, energy, homogeneity, and entropy. Histogram analysis of the encrypted image is also assured in this paper. )e proposed image encryption scheme’s security analysis results are improved compared to the original AES algorithm. Further, security agencies can utilize this work for their confidential image data.

Source: KNUST
A nonlinear fractional epidemic model for the Marburg virus transmission with public health education

In this study, a deterministic model for the dynamics of Marburg virus transmission that incorporates the impact of public health education is being formulated and analyzed. The Caputo fractional-order derivative is used to extend the traditional integer model to a fractional-based model. The model’s positivity and boundedness are also under investigation. We obtain the basic reproduction number R0 and establish the conditions for the local and global asymptotic stability for the disease-free equilibrium of the model. Under the Caputo fractional-order derivative, we establish the existenceuniqueness theory using the Banach contraction mapping principle for the solution of the proposed model. We use functional techniques to demonstrate the proposed model’s stability under the Ulam-Hyers condition. The numerical solutions are being determined through the Predictor- Corrector scheme. Awareness, as a form of education that lowers the risk of danger, is reducing susceptibility and the risk of infection. We employ numerical simulations to showcase the variety of realistic parameter values that support the argument that human awareness, as a form of education, considerably lowers susceptibility and the risk of infection.

Source: KNUST