ghanaopendata/ghanaian-research-english huggingface dataset:
A stochastic differential equation model for assessing droughts and flood Risks

Droughts and floods are two opposite but related hydrological events. They both lie at the extremes of rainfall intensity when the period of that intensity is measured over long intervals. This paper presents a new concept based on stochastic calculus to assess the risk of both droughts and floods. An extended definition of rainfall intensity is applied to point rainfall to simultaneously deal with high intensity storms and dry spells. The meanreverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, which is a stochastic differential equation model, simulates the behavior of point rainfall evolving not over time, but instead with cumulative rainfall depth. Coefficients of the polynomial functions that approximate the model parameters are identified from observed raingauge data using the least squares method. The probability that neither drought nor flood occurs until the cumulative rainfall depth reaches a given value requires solving a Dirichlet problem for the backward Kolmogorov equation associated with the stochastic differential equation. A numerical model is developed to compute that probability, using the finite element method with an effective upwind discretization scheme. Applicability of the model is demonstrated at three raingauge sites located in Ghana, where rainfed subsistence farming is the dominant practice in a variety of tropical climates.

Source: UG
Stochastic frontier modeling of maize production in Brong-Ahafo region of Ghana

Maize is a major staple crop in Ghana which needs to be produced optimally towards food security and commercialization. In relation to this the study adopts the stochastic frontier model to analyze technical efficiency of maize farms in the Brong Ahafo Region of Ghana using a cross sectional data of 232 farms. The findings demonstrate that the input variables scaled per hectare: seed, herbicide, labor and cost of intermediate input influence maize output positively at a decreasing returns to scale. The study further finds that maize producers realize 83% of the frontier output averagely and there is the possibility to increase maize output by 17% at the given technology and input levels in the short run through the adoption of the best farm practices. The study concludes that producer specific factors impede the full potential of the farmers and the inefficiency effects can be mitigated by focusing on policies that enhances the use of best farm practices.

Source: UG
Stochastic structure of metal prices: Evidence from fractional integration non-linearities and breaks

This paper investigates the long-term memory properties of the prices series of two major precious metals (gold and silver) and six non-precious metals (aluminium, copper, lead, zinc, tin and nickel) by using a fractional integration modelling framework while controlling for structural breaks and non-linearities. We use daily data in a range from November 1, 2007 to March 20, 2020. From the results, Copper and Tin exhibit a very small degree of of mean reversion. However, if autocorrelation is permitted, the unit root null hypothesis cannot be rejected. any of the series. We also account for structural breaks and non-linearities. We observe that all the series under investigation are exposed to multiple breaks. Results obtained under white noise errors shows some evidence of mean reversion for silver aluminium, copper, tin and zinc in some of the subsamples. However, under the assumption of Bloomfield autocorrelated errors the confidence intervals are so wide that we cannot confirm this evidence in any single case.

Source: UG
Stochastic Variance Models in Discrete Time with Feedforward Neural Networks. Neural Computations 21

The study overcomes the estimation difficulty in stochastic variance models for discrete financial time series with feedforward neural networks. The volatility function is estimated semiparametrically. The model is used to estimate market risk, taking into account not only the time series of interest but extra information on the market. As an application, some stock prices series are studied and compared with the nonlinear ARX-ARCHX model.

Source: UG
Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics in selected African countries: a bivariate analysis

Purpose – The paper aims to investigate the relationship between stock prices and exchange rate movement in seven African countries. Design/methodology/approach – It uses vector autoregressive (VAR) cointegration and impulse response analysis to determine the long and shortrun linkages between stock prices and exchange rates. Findings – Cointegration analyses indicate a longrun relationship between stock prices and the exchange rate in Tunisia, where exchange rate depreciation drives down stock prices. A shortrun errorcorrection model also shows similar results. Impulse response analyses for other countries show that stock returns in Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius and Nigeria reduce when induced by exchange rate shocks but increase in Egypt and South Africa. Shocks induced by either stock prices or the exchange rate are more protracted in Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius and Nigeria than in South Africa and Egypt. Originality/value – This is one of the few studies on Africa which tests for longrun dynamics and impulse response shock dynamics within a VAR framework. Again unlike other studies it also concentrates on more countries in the sample. © 2011, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Source: UG
Stock Returns and Long-range Dependence

This article studies the long-term memory behaviour of stock returns on the Ghana Stock Exchange. The estimates employed are based on the daily closing prices of seven stocks on the Ghana Stock Exchange. The results of the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average-fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARFIMA-FIGARCH) model suggest that the stock returns are characterized by a predictable component; this demonstrates a complete departure from the efficient market hypothesis, suggesting that relevant market information was only partially reflected in the changes in stock prices. This pattern of time dependence in stock returns may allow for past information to be used to improve the predictability of future returns.

Source: UG
Stocking and over-the-counter sale of misoprostol for medical abortion in Ghana’s community pharmacies: comparison of questionnaire and mystery client survey

Objectives In many sub-Saharan African countries with restricted safe abortion services, community pharmacies are important sources of abortifacients. However, data on stocking and over-the-counter sale of abortifacients in community pharmacies are often limited. The main objective of this study was to compare stocking and over-the-counter sale of misoprostol at community pharmacies using questionnaire and mystery client surveys in Ghana. Methods A cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey, complemented with a mystery client survey, was conducted at 165 randomly selected community pharmacies in Accra, Ghana. Structured questionnaires were administered to pharmacists/pharmacy workers. A mystery client survey to each of these pharmacies was also undertaken. Descriptive statistical techniques (frequencies and proportions) were used to estimate and compare stocking and over-the-counter sale of misoprostol at community pharmacies from the two data collection methods. Key findings Some 50.3% (83) of community pharmacists/pharmacy workers reported stocking misoprostol and selling it over-the-counter for medical abortion in the questionnaire-based survey. However, in the mystery client survey, 122 (74%) pharmacists/pharmacy workers reported stocking misoprostol and actually selling it over-the-counter to the mystery clients. Thus approximately 39 (24%) more pharmacies stocked misoprostol and sold it over-the-counter even though they originally denied stocking the drug in the questionnaire survey. Also, the drug was often sold without a prescription, and many did so without asking for a confirmatory pregnancy test or gestational age. Conclusions In contexts where access to safe abortion services is restricted, mystery client surveys, rather than conventional questionnaire-based survey techniques, may better illuminate stocking and over-the-counter sale of abortifacients at community pharmacies.

Source: UG
Stop Firing the Guns!: Conflict Mitigates the Positive Effect of FDI on Economic Growth.

This paper reexamines the relationship between FDI and economic growth in SSA. For the first time in this area of study, the paper examines this relationship after sifting out the effect of wars. We examine the empirical relations using a Two-Step SGMM estimator with orthogonal deviations, small sample size adjustments and robust standard errors. We find that in the full sample FDI does not exert any influence on economic growth. However, when we drop countries that have been affected by conflict, we see clearly in accordance with economic theory, that FDI has a positive influence on growth. In addition, alternative approaches using dummy variables to represent countries that have been plagued by conflict suggest that the effect of FDI on growth is lower in conflict affected countries. Finally, we find empirical support for what we term the ‘good boy’ hypothesis. Countries that have entered into war only once, exited war and never returned to war for a minimum of six years do not produce a negative interaction with FDI. These countries are now able to benefit from FDI. In essence, these countries have been ‘purged’ from the war tag. First, these results reveal the shortfalls of the many studies that have found a negative or no impact of FDI on growth. If countries want to grow and benefit from FDI, then they must strive to avoid violent conflicts! For countries that have already entered into war, avoiding a recurrence also pays significant dividends.

Source: UG
Storage related haematological and biochemical changes in Plasmodium falciparum infected and sickle cell trait donor blood

Background In sub-Saharan Africa where sickle cell trait (SCT) and malaria is prevalent, significant proportions of blood donors may be affected by one or more of these abnormalities. The haemato-biochemical properties of SCT and asymptomatic malaria in donor blood have not been evaluated. This study evaluated the haemato-biochemical impact of SCT and asymptomatic malaria infections in citrate-phosphate-dextrose-adenine (CPDA-1) stored donor blood units. Methods Fifty-milliliters of sterile CPDA-1 anti-coagulated blood were drained into the sample pouch attached to the main blood bag. Ten units each of sickle cell/malaria negative, sickle cell and malaria positive blood were analyzed. Baseline and weekly haematological profiling and week 1, 3 and 5 concentrations of plasma haemoglobin, % haemolysis, sodium, potassium and chloride and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) were assayed. Differences between baseline and weekly data were determined using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Kruskal-Wallis test, whereas differences between baseline parameters and week 1–3 data pairs were determined using paired t-test. P-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results Storage of SCT and malaria infected blood affected all haematological cell lines. In the SCT donors, red blood cells (RBC) (4.75 × 1012/L ± 1.43baseline to 3.49 × 1012/L ± 1.09week-5), haemoglobin (14.45 g/dl ± 1.63baseline to 11.43 g/dl ± 1.69week-5) and haematocrit (39.96% ± 3.18baseline to 33.22% ± 4.12week-5) were reduced. In the asymptomatic malaria group, reductions were observed in RBC (5.00 × 1012/L ± 0.75baseline to 3.72 × 1012/L ± 0.71week-5), haemoglobin (14.73 g/dl ± 1.67baseline to 11.53 g/dl ± 1.62week-5), haematocrit (42.72% ± 5.16baseline to 33.38% ± 5.80week-5), mean cell haemoglobin concentration (35.48 g/dl ± 1.84baseline to 35.01 g/dl ± 0.64week-5) and red cell distribution width coefficient of variation (14.81% ± 1.54baseline to 16.26% ± 1.37week-5). Biochemically, whereas plasma LDH levels significantly increased in asymptomatic malaria blood donors (319% increase at week 5 compared to baseline), SCT blood donors had the most significant increase in plasma potassium levels at week 5 (382% increase). Sodium ions significantly reduced in SCT/malaria negative and sickle cell trait blood at an average rate of 0.21 mmol/L per day. Moreover, elevations in lymphocytes-to-eosinophils and lymphocytes-to-neutrophils ratios were associated with SCT and malaria positive blood whilst elevation lymphocytes-to-basophils ratio was exclusive to malaria positive blood. Conclusion Severe storage lesions were significant in SCT or malaria positive donor blood units. Proper clinical evaluation must be done in prospective blood donors to ensure deferral of such donors.

Source: UG
Stories from Lake Volta: Lived Experiences of Trafficked Children in Ghana Child Abuse and Neglect

Child trafficking is one of the worst forms of child maltreatment and is often difficult to recognize when it happens intra-country. This paper presents the narratives of children on their experiences as victims of trafficking in fishing communities along the Volta Lake in the Volta region of Ghana. The narratives were co-constructed with the children through child-friendly participatory approaches which involved drawings, writing, and in-depth interviews. The stories reflect the magnitude of maltreatment trafficked children suffer, which ranges from physical to psychological and emotional. The authors recommend commitment by the government to the implementation of the Human Trafficking Act to deter child traffickers. Further studies on the living conditions of rescued children and the need to implement strategies to prevent re-trafficking are suggested.

Source: UG
Stories of Care Leaving: The Experiences of a Group of Resilient Young Adults on Their Journey to Interdependent Living in Ghana

Emerging adulthood is the developmental period from 18 to 25 years of age when young people explore the possibilities of life with support from their parents. However, young people with an out-of-home care background usually navigate this life stage with little or no support. As a result, many care leavers experience poor outcomes including homelessness and low educational achievements. These narratives fuel low expectations and a negative stereotype toward care leavers. This study offers an alternative perspective by sharing positive stories of care leavers. Specifically, it explores the factors that promote the successful transition to emerging adulthood for care leavers in Ghana. Four key themes emerged from the thematic analysis: networks of social support, personal capacities, preparation for adulthood, and positive relationships. These are the factors facilitating the care leavers’ successful transition into emerging adulthood. The study has offered recommendations for policy-making and practice including extending the statutory leaving care age.

Source: UG
Stories of Change in Nutrition in Ghana: a focus on stunting and anemia among children under‑five years (2009 – 2018)

The current study aimed to understand why child stunting and anemia (CS&A) rates declined in Ghana between 2009 and 2018, and which priority policies and programs will further improve nutrition outcomes. Trends and potential drivers of stunting (height-for-age z-score<-2.0 SD) and anemia (hemoglobin<11.0 g/dL), and decomposition analysis of DHS data (2003–2014) were conducted. The quantitative evidence was triangulated with Net-Map analysis of nutrition stakeholder relationships and influence, desk review of policies and programs 2009–2019, and in-depth interviews with 25 stakeholders who provided additional insights to explain CS&A trends. Declines in stunting (29.6%) and anemia (14.1%) in children were observed at the national level, but with important subgroup variations. Decomposition analyses identified changes in the household, maternal, and child characteristics (including wealth, use of antenatal services, maternal education, and immunization) as correlates of anemia reduction. Stunting reduction was linked with changes in bed-net utilization, household wealth, and pregnancy care service utilization. Additionally, multiple policies and programs have been initiated and implemented across multiple sectors were considered potentially relevant to CS&A reduction over time, including those focused on infant and young child feeding, water and sanitation, social protection, and health care access. Initiation and strengthening of these interventions were stimulated by awareness creation and subsequently increased prioritization of stunting. However, program delivery was limited by deficiencies in government funding, perceived low priority of child anemia, and low implementation capacity and coverage, and weak coherence across sectors. Reduced CS&A resulted from improved access to services implemented across multiple sectors, albeit limited by implementation scale and capacity. Further reduction in CS&A require enhanced multi-sectorally coordinated actions and capacity.

Source: UG
Stories of Change in Nutrition in Ghana: a focus on stunting and anemia among children under‑five years (2009 – 2018)

The current study aimed to understand why child stunting and anemia (CS&A) rates declined in Ghana between 2009 and 2018, and which priority policies and programs will further improve nutrition outcomes. Trends and potential drivers of stunting (height-for-age z-score<-2.0 SD) and anemia (hemoglobin<11.0 g/dL), and decomposition analysis of DHS data (2003 to 2014) were conducted. The quantitative evidence was triangulated with Net-Map analysis of nutrition stakeholder relationships and influence, desk review of policies and programs 2009–2019, and in-depth interviews with 25 stakeholders who provided additional insights to explain CS&A trends. Declines in stunting (29.6%) and anemia (14.1%) in children were observed at the national level, but with important subgroup variations. Decomposition analyses identified changes in the household, maternal, and child characteristics (including wealth, use of antenatal services, maternal education, and immunization) as correlates of anemia reduction. Stunting reduction was linked with changes in bed-net utilization, household wealth, and pregnancy care service utilization. Additionally, multiple policies and programs initiated/implemented across multiple sectors were considered potentially relevant to CS&A reduction over time, including those focused on infant and young child feeding, water and sanitation, social protection, and health care access. Initiation/strengthening of these interventions was stimulated by awareness creation and subsequently increased prioritization of stunting. However, program delivery was limited by deficits in government funding, perceived low priority of child anemia, low implementation capacity and coverage, and weak coherence across sectors. Reduced CS&A resulted from improved access to services implemented across multiple sectors, albeit limited by implementation scale and capacity. Further reduction in CS&A requires enhanced multi-sectorally coordinated actions and capacity.

Source: UG
Stories of Change in Nutrition: Lessons from a New Generation of Studies from Africa, Asia and Europe

How does nutrition improve? We need to understand better what drives both positive and negative change in different contexts, and what more can be done to reduce malnutrition. Since 2015, the Stories of Change in Nutrition studies have analysed and documented experiences in many different African and Asian countries, to foster empirically-grounded experiential learning across contexts. This article provides an overview of findings from 14 studies undertaken in nine countries in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Europe between 2017 and 2021. The studies used a combination of methods, including regression-decomposition analyses of national datasets to assess determinants of nutritional change; policy process and food environment analyses; and community-level research assessing attitudes to change. This article takes a narrative synthesis approach to identify key themes across the studies, paying particular attention to multisectoral determinants, changes in the food environment, the role of structural factors (including longstanding social inequities), and changes in political commitment, cross-sectoral coherence and capacity. Given the inherent multisectoral nature of nutrition, many countries are experimenting with different models of ensuring coherence across sectors that are captured in this body of work. The relative immaturity of the policy sector in dealing with issues such as obesity and overweight, and associated influences in the wider food environment, adds a further challenge. To address these interrelated issues, policy must simultaneously tackle nutrition’s upstream (social/economic/equity) and downstream (health and dietary) determinants. Studies synthesised here provide empirically-driven inspiration for action.

Source: UG
Stories of change in nutrition: lessons from a new generation of studies from Africa, Asia and Europe

Abstract How does nutrition improve? We need to understand better what drives both positive and negative change in diferent contexts, and what more can be done to reduce malnutrition. Since 2015, the Stories of Change in Nutrition studies have analysed and documented experiences in many diferent African and Asian countries, to foster empirically-grounded experiential learning across contexts. This article provides an overview of fndings from 14 studies undertaken in nine countries in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Europe between 2017 and 2021. The studies used a combination of methods, including regression-decomposition analyses of national datasets to assess determinants of nutritional change; policy process and food environment analyses; and community-level research assessing attitudes to change. This article takes a narrative synthesis approach to identify key themes across the studies, paying particular attention to multisectoral determinants, changes in the food environment, the role of structural factors (including longstanding social inequities), and changes in political commitment, cross-sectoral coherence and capacity. Given the inherent multisectoral nature of nutrition, many countries are experimenting with diferent models of ensuring coherence across sectors that are captured in this body of work. The relative immaturity of the policy sector in dealing with issues such as obesity and overweight, and associated infuences in the wider food environment, adds a further challenge. To address these interrelated issues, policy must simultaneously tackle nutrition’s upstream (social/economic/equity) and downstream (health and dietary) determinants. Studies synthesised here provide empirically-driven inspiration for action.

Source: UG
The story of northern Ghana

Rural development is still an important policy goal in most developing countries where a high proportion of the population lives and works in rural areas. This book provides in-depth empirical discussions of contemporary development issues of rural development in northern Ghana with wider applicability in terms of the processes, needs, strategies, and recommendations for policy for most of the savannah ecological zone of Africa. Although the rest of Ghana is developing much faster than northern Ghana, its people perceive substantial positive changes in their conditions of life as prosperity trickles, albeit slowly down and out to them. Environmental change and economic globalization is rendering ineffective the adaptive strategies of poor farmers in northern Ghana. This book is an important resource for students, researchers, policy makers and NGOs with interest in rural development, dry land areas, marginalized areas and general development. The descriptions and discussions of contemporary challenges of rural development issues using vivid case studies are of relevance for comparison to different and similar country situations. 2013 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: UG