Managing Strategic Competition with China (2009)

Key Points Officials in Obama administration have highlighted need for a positive, cooperative, and comprehensive with China that can help United States address an array of global challenges. Administration officials have not adopted responsible stakeholder language that characterized recent U.S. China policy, but their overall approach appears compatible with that concept. Initial policy statements have focused on expanding U.S.-China cooperation, with particular emphasis on addressing global economic crisis and climate change. This paper focuses on an important but neglected topic: how address challenges posed by China's development of advanced strategic and military capabilities that might threaten U.S. interests within context of a broader policy emphasizing engagement and cooperation with China. Relations in four strategic areas--nuclear modernization, space and counterspace, cyber warfare, and conventional force modernization--are analyzed, and potential for competitive dynamics in these areas affect stability of broader U.S.-China bilateral relationship is explored. The paper suggests that China's approach nuclear modernization, which has sought maintain a credible second-strike capability that would induce U.S. restraint while minimizing economic and political costs, may be a model for its future behavior in other areas. However, specific characteristics of these areas--including expected costs of competitive behavior and extent which deterrence functions effectively--may also influence competitive dynamics. The prospect of continued U.S.-China strategic competition suggests that nuclear, missile defense, space, and cyber issues will be irritants (and potentially destabilizing factors) in bilateral relations. Perceptions about likelihood of conflict over Taiwan are likely intensify or ease competitive dynamics, but competition already goes beyond Taiwan scenarios. The ultimate impact will depend on whether competition over strategic issues comes dominate relationship. The paper suggests four potential means of limiting impact of competitive dynamics: placing limits on competition that might make both sides worse off; keeping competitive dimensions of relations within context of a broader, generally cooperative relationship of huge importance both sides; providing a path for China pursue its legitimate interests while taking on more responsibility for maintenance of international system; and actively seeking expand security cooperation, including bilateral and multilateral cooperation, between U.S. and Chinese militaries. In Obama administration's first major speech on Asia policy, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton highlighted need for a positive, cooperative with People's Republic of China (PRC) that could help United States address an array of global challenges. Dismissing view that a rising China must be an adversary, she argued that the United States and China can benefit from and contribute each other's successes and stressed importance of working to build on areas of common concern and shared opportunities. (1) Her subsequent remarks in Beijing highlighted importance of U.S.China cooperation in addressing global economic crisis, building a partnership on clean energy and climate change, and working together on a range of shared international security challenges. (2) Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg later called for building a positive, cooperative and comprehensive U.S.-China relationship for 21st century. (3) These remarks acknowledge reality that cooperation with China is essential a range of important U.S. interests and Obama administration policy priorities. They also appear reflect a determination avoid pattern evident in previous U.S. administrations of adopting a hardline approach toward China during campaign and early days in office before recognizing need build good working relations with Beijing. …