Best Option for India Is to Bank on the ANA (2013)

As the American drawdown from Afghanistan begins, the prophets of doom are predicting the collapse of the current Afghan regime. Pakistan is trying to convince the Western world that a lasting peace in Afghanistan is unlikely without co-opting the Taliban; and a weary American administration, which desperately needs a face saver, is buying it. Numerous attempts are being made to negotiate with the Taliban, which are in no way contributing towards peace, but are weakening the foundations of the current Karzai administration in Kabul. Many of those occupying positions of power in Islamabad and Rawalpindi have for long cherished dreams of controlling Afghanistan after the US withdrawal. They perceive that, as soon as the last US soldier departs from Afghanistan, the Taliban will hoist its flag on Kabul; and, as far as Pakistan's interests are concerned, Mullah Omar will continue to be as accommodative as he has been during his stay in Pakistan.Even though this premise is highly flawed, the very idea threatens India. From India's point of view, any presence of an obscurantist radical outfit like Taliban within the power structures of Kabul, threatens India's security. It is therefore essential that India must have a proactive policy to ensure that an independent and strong Afghanistan which is capable of keeping the Taliban at bay, emerges after the withdrawal of the troops from the US and its allies.In order to formulate an objective policy, certain prevalent myths need to be dispelled. As the former colonial masters of South Asia, the British, have succeeded in selling to the Americans a highly flawed narrative of Afghan History. Consequently, terms like the 'graveyards of Empires' have come to symbolise Afghanistan. The truth is that Afghanistan as an independent state is a recent entity, and for centuries under Mughal rule, Kabul was ruled from Delhi. More significantly, even though Afghanistan was not colonised, it has never been free from foreign influence or interference, and this state of affairs has persisted to this day. Secondly, it must be remembered that the last communist regime under President Najibullah held on to power for three years after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 and collapsed only because its vital supplies of ammunition and POL were disrupted, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Besides, both Pakistan and the United States did not fulfil their treaty obligations, and continued to arm the Mujahideen. After the withdrawal in 2014, one does not visualise the Americans pulling out to the last man a la the Soviets; despite all hitches, it is reasonable to presume that they will continue to maintain their toe hold and retain the capacity to build up forces expeditiously. This factor alone will boost the confidence level of the regime, and play a major role in strengthening it.It is often forgotten that today's Taliban is closely aligned with the Global Islamic Movement and, notwithstanding the recent postulations from Mullah Omar, it is still being manipulated by the Al Qaeda. Its aims and objectives are no longer confined to the geographical frontiers of Afghanistan, and its eventual aim is the creation of a global Islamic Emirate. Its presence at the helm of affairs in Kabul will not only divert the plethora of global Islamic militants fighting there to other countries in the region, but the Taliban regime could also provide material support to these radical organisations. It is, therefore, in India's interest to fight these radical organisations, which are striving to establish a transnational Islamic entity in Afghanistan rather than on Indian Territory. Consequently, the war against Taliban is not only Afghanistan's battle, but also a key ingredient of India's quest for security.The future stability in Afghanistan depends on the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), which primarily include the Afghan National Army (ANA) and the Afghan police. Of these, the ANA is the key to Afghanistan's survival as a modern state, and its success or failure will shape the state's destiny. …