Abstract P4-11-13: Validation of the preoperative endocrine prognostic index in the ACOSOG (Alliance) Z1031 neoadjuvant aromatase inhibitor trial (2015)

Abstract Background: The Preoperative Endocrine Prognostic Index (PEPI) is a method to predict outcome after neoadjuvant endocrine therapy that integrates Ki67, estrogen receptor (ER) analysis and pathological stage from the surgical specimen (Ellis, JNCI 100:1380, 2008). We sought to further develop the PEPI for use in clinical trials by: a) establishing an efficient SOP for Ki67 analysis, b) determining the effect of simplifying the score by removing the ER component (modified "mPEPI") and c) independent validation of mPEPI in the ACOSOG (Alliance) Z1031 neoadjuvant aromatase inhibitor trial (Ellis, M, JCO 29:234, 2011). Methods: Ki-67 assay development focused on reproducing a 2.7% Ki-67 cut point (CP) required for PEPI. Ventana Image analysis (IA) to replace labor-intensive visual point counting (VPC) was assessed to increase scoring efficiency. Discordant scores led to a triage approach where cases with complex histological features that could not be resolved by IA were flagged for VPC. The Ki-67 scoring approach was preliminarily validated on T1/2 N0 cases from the P024 and POL trials (SABCS 2013, abstract P3-05-190). Models with and without ER suggested ER was dispensable. A locked SOP for mPEPI was subsequently applied to the Z1031A trial. The primary endpoint was time from the date of surgery to local, regional, or distant recurrence in the mPEPI-0 group (T1/2 N0, Ki67 &amp;lt;2.7%) versus the mPEPI&amp;gt;0 group. Results. mPEPI by IA was evaluated on 202 of 377 (53%) patients enrolled into Z1031A (6% of IA results were triaged to VPC). All patients have been followed a minimum of 2 years (median: 5 years; max: 7 years). Only 10 patients in the mPEPI-0 group (22.7%) received adjuvant chemotherapy, versus 78 in the mPEPI&amp;gt;0 group (49.4%). Time to breast cancer recurrence was decreased among those with mPEPI&amp;gt;0 status relative to those with mPEPI-0 status (log rank p=0.012). Only one disease event among 44 (2%) cases with mPEPI-0 was observed versus 26 of 158 cases with mPEPI&amp;gt;0 (16.5%) Conclusions. mPEPI-0 status can identify patients at low risk of relapse after neoadjuvant endocrine therapy: therefore mPEPI-0 status has operational characteristics similar to pCR after chemotherapy for ER-negative disease. mPEPI is undergoing prospective validation in the Alliance ALTERNATE trial that will assess whether Fulvestrant increases the mPEPI-0 rate and also will prospectively determine whether patients with mPEPI-0 status can safely be managed without adjuvant chemotherapy treatment. Citation Format: Souzan Sanati, Vera J Suman, Rodrigo Goncalves, Katherine DeSchryver, Cynthia X Ma, Jeremy Hoog, Erika Crouch, Michael Barnes, Gary Unzeitig, A Marilyn Leitch, Kelly K Hunt, Matthew J Ellis. Validation of the preoperative endocrine prognostic index in the ACOSOG (Alliance) Z1031 neoadjuvant aromatase inhibitor trial [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Seventh Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2014 Dec 9-13; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(9 Suppl):Abstract nr P4-11-13.