Africa in the New World Order (1990)

AFRICA IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER Pauline H. Baker T,hirty years ago, Sub-Saharan Africa was the Eastern Europe of the times. Although poor and underdeveloped, the world's second largest continent was undergoing change more rapidly than any other part ofthe globe. Today, however, the promise that surrounded the collapse of colonial rule and the birth of over forty new nations in Africa remains unfulfilled. Economic stagnation, political instability, and superpower rivalry followed in the footsteps ofimperial retreat, with ethnic, racial, class, and religious conflicts rending the political fabric of the continent. Current economic prospects are grim, a crisis ofpolitical legitimacy is coming to a head, and the end of the Cold War may further marginalize Africa. Nevertheless, there are some hopeful signs of change: a consensus is growing about the causes of Africa's deterioration, a new pragmatism born of necessity is emerging among African elites, and one-party states and military rulers are coming under increasing pressures for democratization. Over the next several years, Africa's role in the world order will change, and America's interest in the continent, while currently at an ebb, may be revived. Pauline H. Baker is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She is the author of numerous books and articles, including The United States and South Africa: The Reagan Years (Ford Foundation/Foreign Policy Association, 1989). Dr. Baker lived and worked in Nigeria for eleven years and is currently co-chairperson of the Women's Foreign Policy Group. 139 140 SAISREVIEW Unfulfilled Expectations Beginning with Ghana in 1957 and continuing through the 1970s, dozens of African states achieved independence, forming a bloc that represented roughly one third of the membership of the United Nations. Just as the cluster of territories ranging from Hungary to Lithuania is now rejecting the authoritarian rule of the Soviet Union, an area approximately eight times as large (from the Sahara to the Kalahari Deserts), with about twice the population, was then throwing off the colonial domination of Western Europe. Events leading up to African independence were obviously quite different from those which have led to Eastern Europe's freedom. Among other things, Africa suffered from centuries of conquest and exploitation by adventurers, propagandists, opportunists, and empire builders seeking commercial gain, military expansion, political status, and international prestige. The continent was drained by slavery and carved up by colonialism. Its national boundaries were not defined by physical barriers, socio-cultural patterns, or indigenous political forces. Rather, the modern map of Africa was drawn by foreign powers at the 1884 Conference of Berlin. Consequently, contemporary African conflicts stem largely from competition among diverse peoples thrown together more than a hundred years ago by Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain and the King of Belgium. At the time of independence, Africa's experience was seen to have universal relevance. The "winds of change" blowing across the continent added new perspectives to prevailing concepts of global change. Economists wrote about the stages ofeconomic growth which new nations would go through in order to "take off'—that is, to achieve industrialization, few doubting that this was either a desirable or realizable near-term goal. Political scientists predicted radical transitions from traditional societies based on "primordial" loyalties to modern political systems based on "ascriptive" criteria. Students of comparative politics wrestled with loosely defined notions, such as "nation-building" and "political culture." And a lively debate arose about whether Africa would, or should, follow Marxist, neo-colonial, or capitalist lines of development. Most observers were optimistic about Africa's future. As development analyst Goran Hyden noted: "Independent Africa was born into a world characterized by its faith in progress. Captivated by scientific and technological success, the postwar generation in both the East and the West had lost their sense ofproportion, thrown cautions to the wind, and dismissed as unfounded pessimism all realistic reference to man's natural AFRICA IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER 141 limits."1 This sense of "Prometheus Unbound," as Hyden termed it, not only convinced the European powers that it was no longer necessary to keep their overseas colonies in bondage, but raised exaggerated expectations amongAfricans themselves. "With independence, Prometheus moved to Africa...