System of systems design: Evaluating aircraft in a fleet context using reliability and non-deterministic approaches (2008)

This work develops and implements a solution framework that allows for an integrated solution to a resource allocation system-of-systems problem associated with designing vehicles for integration into an existing fleet to extend that fleet's capability while improving efficiency. Typically, aircraft design focuses on using a specific design mission while a fleet perspective would provide a broader capability. Aspects of design for both the vehicles and missions may be, for simplicity, deterministic in nature or, in a model that reflects actual conditions, uncertain. Toward this end, the set of tasks or goals for the to-be-planned system-of-systems will be modeled more accurately with non-deterministic values, and the designed platforms will be evaluated using reliability analysis. The reliability, defined as the probability of a platform or set of platforms to complete possible missions, will contribute to the fitness of the overall system. The framework includes building surrogate models for metrics such as capability and cost, and includes the ideas of reliability in the overall system-level design space. The concurrent design and allocation system-of-systems problem is a multi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem. This study considered two system-of-systems problems that seek to simultaneously design new aircraft and allocate these aircraft into a fleet to provide a desired capability. The Coast Guard's Integrated Deepwater System program inspired the first problem, which consists of a suite of search-and-find missions for aircraft based on descriptions from the National Search and Rescue Manual. The second represents suppression of enemy air defense operations similar to those carried out by the U.S. Air Force, proposed as part of the Department of Defense Network Centric Warfare structure, and depicted in MILSTD-3013. The two problems seem similar, with long surveillance segments, but because of the complex nature of aircraft design, the analysis of the vehicle for high-speed attack combined with a long loiter period is considerably different from that for quick cruise to an area combined with a low speed search. However, the framework developed to solve this class of system-of-systems problem handles both scenarios and leads to a solution type for this kind of problem. On the vehicle-level of the problem, different technology can have an impact on the fleet-level. One such technology is Morphing, the ability to change shape, which is an ideal candidate technology for missions with dissimilar segments, such as the aforementioned two. A framework, using surrogate models based on optimally-sized aircraft, and using probabilistic parameters to define a concept of operations, is investigated; this has provided insight into the setup of the optimization problem, the use of the reliability metric, and the measurement of fleet level impacts of morphing aircraft. The research consisted of four phases. The two initial phases built and defined the framework to solve system-of-systems problem; these investigations used the search-and-find scenario as the example application. The first phase included the design of fixed-geometry and morphing aircraft for a range of missions and evaluated the aircraft capability using non-deterministic mission parameters. The second phase introduced the idea of multiple aircraft in a fleet, but only considered a fleet consisting of one aircraft type. The third phase incorporated the simultaneous design of a new vehicle and allocation into a fleet for the search-and-find scenario; in this phase, multiple types of aircraft are considered. The fourth phase repeated the simultaneous new aircraft design and fleet allocation for the SEAD scenario to show that the approach is not specific to the search-and-find scenario. The framework presented in this work appears to be a viable approach for concurrently designing and allocating constituents in a system, specifically aircraft in a fleet. The research also shows that new technology impact can be assessed at the fleet level using conceptual design principles.