User Interfaces for All (1999)

For the acceptance of future network-based media services the technical advancement of the man-machine interface is of great importance. The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) in Karlsruhe has conducted an expert survey on different acceptance factors, on the future development of media usage behavior, on network infrastructure and terminal devices as well as on the expected market development. Drawing on the results we point out perspectives in the light of today’s user needs and the technical possibilities. Over the last two decades progress in software engineering and hardware miniaturization have turned the computer from a large device that could only be operated by specialists into a common consumer good that can be found in almost all areas of private and business life. The IBM Personal Computer (1981) and the Apple Macintosh (1984) were important early milestones on the way to the computer as a useful product for everyone. Today it is much more than a simple calculating machine or tool. With the establishment and commercialization of computer networks since the early 1990’s the computer became a new medium fulfilling information and communication needs [Friedewald 1999]. According to expert opinion online media services will lead to a substantial expansion of financial and time expenditure of private households for the use of media. Network-bound media offerings like Internet or online services enable easy access to conventional media contents, for example newspaper articles, music titles, and video sequences at each time of day. The most important progress however is the possible integration of different types of media as well as their linkage to additional services. This includes communication with other users, the handling of transactions, e.g. electronic shopping, and even interactive television. Supported by the German Federal Ministry for Education, Science, Research and Technology and in co-operation with a research association focussing on media education (Medienpadagogischer Forschungsverbund Sudwest) the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) in Karlsruhe has conducted a survey on the expected future development of media usage behavior, on network technology and terminal devices, as well as on market development in Germany. 13 The survey is part of the research project “Development of Media Services“ (DeMeS) about the future media use in the private sector [Harnischfeger et al. 1999]. 281 experts have participated, 40 % of whom belonged to the German industrial sector (media industries, information and communication technology). In addition, experts were chosen from German Institutions, who either have a scientific interest in media or who are concerned with the shaping of the media sector and its social, political and economic conditions (politics, churches and unions, as well as professional organizations). The survey was conducted by mailing questionnaires. Most of the questions were closed, showing a variety of possible answers to be ticked. The experts were not asked to justify their estimates. However several questions focusing on related topics allowed a check for consistency. Furthermore comparison of estimates by experts from different professional backgrounds showed no significant difference concerning the results discussed below. In combination with the 1998 Delphi study questioning more than 2,000 experts on the global development of science and technology [Cuhls et al. 1998], this data allows a thorough view on what users require from future terminal equipment, and what technical developments can be expected. 1 Diffusion of Terminal Devices While in the middle of the 1970 there were no more than 165,000 computers world-wide, this number grew up to 200 million devices in 1997 [Phister et al. 1983, Kelly 1997]. Today a personal computer is available in more than 40 % of the US-American and in approximately 30 % of the Western European households. It is expected that in Europe this number will increase by further 10 % up to the year 2001 [Zerdick et al. 1999, EITO 1999]. Until recently stationary PCs were the only devices for using online services. In the future a multiplicity of new devices will appear: e. g. Network PCs that receive their software via network connection, television sets with computer functions or enhanced mobile phones. Because of particular features, such as the small display of mobile phones, the mode of interaction has to be adjusted for a number of new terminal devices [Oliphant 1999]. Media services based on the Internet Protocol Suite offer new application perspectives even for those users, who in the past did not see a reason for buying a PC with its stand-alone applications. Altogether the experts expect that the share of households with terminal devices for the use of online services will rise from 9 % today to more than 40 % in 2015. The growth will be even faster with mobile devices, which at present constitute a share of less than 1 %. It is expected that in 2015 almost 17 % of the households will be using mobile equipment (Fig. 1) [Harnischfeger et al. 1999]. The crucial point for this development is the users acceptance. Before discussing the technical factors with respect to acceptance it is worth mentioning that the social environment and the user competence are central as well. More than 80 % of the experts regard vocational practice with multimedia technologies, the integration of multimedia into the educational context, a highquality and reasonable priced customer service as well as personal non-commercial help in case of problems as important or very important for the acceptance. These findings illustrate that the formation of user competence by self-instruction or “trial and error” that is still often practiced today will not be sufficient for a broad acceptance and future diffusion in the view of the experts. 14 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1995 200