Federal Reserve press conference, 2024-09-18 — Chair Jerome Powell

Question (Greg Robb, MarketWatch): Hi, Chair Powell. Greg Robb from Marketwatch.com. I was wondering if you could go through—you said just at the beginning that, coming into the blackout, there was like an open thought of 25 or 50—you know, the Fed could move either 25 or 50. I would sort of argue that when we had those two last speeches by Governor Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, that they were sort of saying that maybe a gradual approach was going to win the day. I mean, I sort of want to ask a seven-part question about this. But, I mean, could you talk— would you have cut rates by 50 basis points if the market had been pricing in, like, low odds of a 50 point move like they were last Wednesday, you know, after the CPI number came out? It was a really small probability of a 50 point cut. Does that play in your consideration at all? Just talk a little bit about that. Thank you.
Answer: We’re always going to try to do what we think is the right thing for the economy at that time. That’s what we’ll do. And that’s what we did today.

Question (Simon Rabinovitch, The Economist): Thank you, Chair Powell. Simon Rabinovitch with the Economist. You’ve mentioned how closely you’re watching the labor market, but you also noted that payroll numbers have been a little bit less reliable lately because of the big downward revisions. Does that put your focus overwhelmingly on the unemployment rate? And given the SEP projection of 4.4 [percent] basically being the peak in the cycle, would going above that be the kind of thing that would trigger another 50 basis point cut?
Answer: So we will continue to look at that broad array of labor market data, including the payroll numbers. We’re not discarding those. I mean, we’ll certainly look at those, but we will mentally tend to adjust them based on the QCEW adjustment, which you referred to. There isn’t a bright line. You know, it will be—the unemployment rate’s very important, of course, but there isn’t a single statistic or single bright line over which that thing that might move that would dictate one thing or another. We’ll look at—each meeting, we’ll look at all the data on inflation, economic activity, and the labor market, and we’ll make decisions about, is our policy stance where it needs to be to foster over the medium term our mandate goals? So I can’t—I can’t say we have a bright line in mind.

Question (Kyle Campbell, American Banker): Right. And then, yesterday. there were merger reform finalizations from the other bank regulators. What does the Fed have to do to align itself on a merger?
Answer: You know, I would—I would bounce that question to Vice Chair Barr. It’s a good question, but I don’t have that today. Thanks.