Graphic illustrates the growth of 2-meter air temperature errors from a numerical weather prediction model with increasing forecast lead time. The two types of forecasts being compared are direct model output (DMO) and model output statistics (MOS). The weather model being used is the 00Z run of the United States' Global Forecast System (GFS). Approximately 350 locations across the US were examined during four cool "seasons" (October->March 2010 to 2014) to provide an estimate of the mean absolute errors by comparing forecasts (DMO and MOS) to verifying surface temperature observations.