As a financial services company, market interest rates are a key driver of the Company's results of operations and financial condition. Changes in interest rates can affect our results of operations and/or our financial condition in several ways, including favorable or adverse impacts to:
The quarterly adjustments for market performance referred to above reflect the impact of changes to our estimate of total gross profits to reflect actual fund performance and market conditions. A significant portion of gross profits for our variable annuity contracts is dependent upon the total rate of return on assets held in separate account investment options. This rate of return influences the fees we earn, costs we incur associated with the guaranteed minimum death and guaranteed minimum income benefit features related to our variable annuity contracts, as well as other sources of profit. Returns that are higher than our expectations for a given period produce higher than expected account balances, which increase the future fees we expect to earn and decrease the future costs we expect to incur associated with the guaranteed minimum death and guaranteed minimum income benefit features related to our variable annuity contracts. The opposite occurs when returns are lower than our expectations. The changes in future expected gross profits are used to recognize a cumulative adjustment to all prior periods’ amortization.
The near-term future equity rate of return assumption used in evaluating DAC and other costs is derived using a reversion to the mean approach, a common industry practice. Under this approach, we consider historical equity returns and adjust projected equity returns over an initial future period of five years (the “near-term”) so that equity returns converge to the long-term expected rate of return. If the near-term projected future rate of return is greater than our near-term maximum future rate of return of 15%, we use our maximum future rate of return. As of December 31, 2017, we assume an 8.0% long-term equity expected rate of return and a 3.3% near-term mean reversion equity expected rate of return.
The weighted average rate of return assumptions consider many factors, including asset durations, asset allocations and other factors. We generally update the near-term equity rate of return and our estimate of total gross profits each quarter to reflect the result of the reversion to the mean approach. We generally update the future interest rates used to project fixed income returns annually and in any quarter when interest rates vary significantly from these assumptions. As a result of our 2017 annual reviews and update of assumptions and other refinements, we reduced our long-term expectation of the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate by 25 basis points and now grade to 3.75% over ten years.
In addition to DAC and DSI, we also recognize an asset for value of business acquired, or VOBA. VOBA is an intangible asset which represents an adjustment to the stated value of acquired in force insurance contract liabilities to present them at fair value, determined as of the acquisition date. VOBA is amortized over the expected life of the acquired contracts using the same methodology and assumptions used to amortize DAC and DSI (see “-Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs and Deferred Sales Inducements” above for additional information). VOBA is also subject to recoverability testing. As of December 31, 2017, VOBA was $35 million.
For certain contract features, such as those related to guaranteed minimum death benefits (“GMDB”), guaranteed minimum income benefits (“GMIB”), a liability is established when associated assessments (which include all policy charges including charges for administration, mortality, expense, surrender, and other, regardless of how characterized) are recognized. This liability is established utilizing current best estimate assumptions and is based on the ratio of the present value of total expected excess payments over the life of the contract divided by the present value of total expected assessments (i.e., benefit ratio). The liability equals the current benefit ratio multiplied by cumulative assessments recognized to date, plus interest, less cumulative excess payments to date. Similar to as described above for DAC, the reserves are subject to adjustments based on annual reviews of assumptions and quarterly adjustments for experience, including market performance. These adjustments reflect the impact on the benefit ratio of using actual historical experience from the issuance date to the balance sheet date plus updated estimates of future experience. The updated benefit ratio is then applied to all prior periods’ assessments to derive an adjustment to the reserve recognized through a benefit or charge to current period earnings.
The reserves for future policy benefits of our business relate to reserves for the GMDB and GMIB features of our variable annuities, and for the optional living benefit features that are accounted for as embedded derivatives. As discussed above, in establishing reserves for GMDBs and GMIBs, we utilize current best estimate assumptions. The primary assumptions used in establishing these reserves generally include annuitization, lapse, withdrawal and mortality assumptions, as well as interest rate and equity market return assumptions. Lapse rates are adjusted at the contract level based on the in-the-moneyness of the living benefit and reflect other factors, such as the applicability of any surrender charges. Lapse rates are reduced when contracts are more in-the-money. Lapse rates are also generally assumed to be lower for the period where surrender charges apply.
Commercial mortgage and other loans are carried primarily at unpaid principal balances, net of unamortized deferred loan origination fees and expenses and unamortized premiums or discounts and a valuation allowance for losses. For a discussion of our policies regarding the valuation allowance for commercial mortgage and other loans, see Note 2 to the Financial Statements.
In December 2017, SEC staff issued “SAB 118, Income Tax Accounting Implications of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act” (“SAB 118”), which allows the registrants to record provisional amounts during a ‘measurement period’ not to extend beyond one year. Under the relief provided by SAB 118, a company can recognize provisional amounts when it does not have the necessary information available, prepared or analyzed in reasonable detail to complete its accounting for the change in tax law. See Note 9 to the Financial Statements for a discussion of provisional amounts related to the Tax Act of 2017 included in “Total income tax expense (benefit)” in 2017.
An increase or decrease in our effective tax rate by one percentage point would have resulted in an increase or decrease in our 2017 "Total income tax expense (benefit)" of $11 million.
Income tax receivable decreased $0.9 billion primarily as a result of tax reform.
Future policy benefits increased $0.4 billion primarily driven by credit spread tightening and living benefit reserve growth, partially offset by favorable markets.
Policyholders' account balances increased $0.1 billion primarily due to transfers from the separate account.
Income from operations before income taxes increased $2.9 billion from a loss of $1.8 billion for the year ended 2016, to income of $1.1 billion for the year ended 2017.
The increase in income from operations before income taxes was primarily driven by a favorable variance of $2.0 billion for recapture and reinsurance losses for the year ended December 31, 2016, driven by the Variable Annuities Recapture. as well as a favorable variance from the annual review and update of assumptions and other refinements. Also contributing to the increase was a favorable variance in fees driven by the Variable Annuities Recapture. See table below, for more information.
The primary risk exposures of our variable annuity contracts relate to actual deviations from, or changes to, the assumptions used in the original pricing of these products, including capital market assumptions such as equity market returns, interest rates and market volatility, along with actuarial assumptions such as contractholder mortality, the timing and amount of annuitization and withdrawals, and contract lapses. For these risk exposures, achievement of our expected returns and profitability is subject to the risk that actual experience will differ from the assumptions used in the original pricing of these products. We currently manage our exposure to certain risks driven by fluctuations in capital markets primarily through a combination of Product Design Features, an Asset Liability Management Strategy and a capital hedge program.
A portion of the variable annuity contracts that we have offered include an asset transfer feature. This feature is implemented at the contract level, and transfers assets between certain variable investment sub-accounts selected by the annuity contractholder and, depending on the benefit feature, a fixed-rate account in the general account or a bond fund sub-account within the separate accounts. The objective of the asset transfer feature is to reduce our exposure to equity market risk and market volatility. The asset transfer feature associated with living benefit products formerly sold by PALAC and highest daily benefit products currently sold by Pruco Life and PLNJ use a designated bond fund sub-account within the separate accounts. The transfers are based on a static mathematical formula used with the particular benefit which considers a number of factors, including, but not limited to, the impact of investment performance on the contractholder’s total account value. Other product design features we utilize include, among others, asset allocation restrictions, minimum issuance age requirements and certain limitations on the amount of contractholder deposits. In addition, there is diversity in our fee arrangements, as certain fees are primarily based on the benefit guarantee amount, the contractholder account value and/or premiums, which helps preserve certain revenue streams when market fluctuations cause account values to decline.
As of December 31, 2017, our fixed income instruments and derivative assets exceed the economic liability.
• Different valuation methodologies in measuring the liability the Company intends to cover with fixed income instruments and derivatives versus the liability reported under U.S. GAAP- The valuation methodology utilized in estimating the economic liability the Company intends to defray with fixed income instruments and derivatives is different from that required to be utilized to measure the liability under U.S. GAAP. The valuation of the economic liability excludes certain items that are included within the U.S. GAAP liability, such as NPR (in order to maximize protection irrespective of the possibility of our own default), as well as risk margins (required by U.S. GAAP but different from our best estimate).
• General hedge results-For the derivative portion of the ALM strategy, the net hedging impact (the extent to which the changes in value of the hedging instruments offset the change in value of the portion of the economic liability we are hedging) may be impacted by a number of factors including: cash flow timing differences between our hedging instruments and the corresponding portion of the economic liability we are hedging, basis differences attributable to actual underlying contractholder funds to be hedged versus hedgeable indices, rebalancing costs related to dynamic rebalancing of hedging instruments as markets move, certain elements of the economic liability that may not be hedged (including certain actuarial assumptions), and implied and realized market volatility on the hedge positions relative to the portion of the economic liability we seek to hedge.
During 2018, we launched PruSecureSM, a single premium fixed index annuity, which allows the policyholder to allocate all or a portion of their account balance into an index account, such as the S&P 500. The index account provides interest or an interest component linked to, but not an investment in, the selected index, and its performance over the elected term (i.e., 1, 3 or 5 years), subject to certain participation rates and contractual minimums and maximums. We also anticipate the launch of Guaranteed Income for Tomorrow (“GIFTSM”), a deferred income annuity, which initially will be distributed through direct response solicitation through Prudential Insurance's Group Insurance business.
The differences between income taxes expected at the U.S. federal statutory income tax rate of 35% and the reported income tax (benefit) expense are provided in the following table:
The effective tax rate is the ratio of “Total income tax expense (benefit)” divided by “Income (loss) from operations before income taxes.” Our effective tax rate for fiscal years 2017, 2016 and 2015 was 107.5%, 38.4% and (5.0)%, respectively. For a detailed description of the nature of each significant reconciling item, see Note 9 to the Financial Statements. The increase in income tax benefit corresponding to the change in the effective tax rate from (5.0)% in 2015 to 38.4% in 2016 was primarily driven by a decrease in pre-tax net income. The increase in the effective tax rate from 38.4% in 2016 to 107.5% in 2017 was primarily driven by an increase in pre-tax net income and the impacts of the Tax Act of 2017 on the date of enactment. Going forward, we generally expect a lower future effective tax rate. This reduction is primarily due to applying the lower corporate tax rate under the Tax Act of 2017 to our business earnings.
The Company’s liability for income taxes includes the liability for unrecognized tax benefits and interest that relate to tax years still subject to review by the Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”) or other taxing authorities. The completion of review or the expiration of the Federal statute of limitations for a given audit period could result in an adjustment to the liability for income taxes. The Company had no unrecognized benefit as of December 31, 2017, 2016 and 2015. We do not anticipate any significant changes within the next 12 months to our total unrecognized tax benefits related to tax years for which the statute of limitations has not expired.
Effective and prudent liquidity and capital management is a priority across the organization. Management monitors the liquidity of Prudential Financial, Prudential Insurance and the Company on a daily basis and projects borrowing and capital needs over a multi-year time horizon through our periodic planning process. We believe that cash flows from the sources of funds available to us are sufficient to satisfy the current liquidity requirements of Prudential Insurance, Prudential Financial and the Company, including under reasonably foreseeable stress scenarios. Prudential Financial has a capital management framework in place that governs the allocation of capital and approval of capital uses. Prudential Financial and the Company also employ a “Capital Protection Framework” to ensure the availability of capital resources to maintain adequate capitalization and competitive risk-based capital (“RBC”) ratios under various stress scenarios.
Through March 31, 2016, the Company reinsured the majority of its variable annuity living benefit guarantees to its affiliated companies, Pruco Re and Prudential Insurance, in order to facilitate the capital markets hedging program for these living benefit guarantees. Effective April 1, 2016, the Company recaptured the risks related to its variable annuity living benefit guarantees that were previously reinsured to Pruco Re and Prudential Insurance. In addition, the Company reinsured variable annuity base contracts, along with the living benefit guarantees, from Pruco Life. The reinsurance agreement covers new and in force business and excludes business reinsured externally by Pruco Life. The product risks related to the reinsured business are being managed in the Company. In addition, the hedging portion of our risk management strategy related to the reinsured living benefit guarantees is being managed within the Company.
On June 7, 2017, September 6, 2017 and November 24, 2017, the Company returned capital of $100 million, $200 million and $650 million, respectively, to its parent, PAI. On December 21, 2016, the Company returned capital of $1,140 million to PAI. On December 22, 2015 and June 29, 2015, the Company paid dividends of $180 million and $270 million, respectively, to PAI.
As noted above, effective April 1, 2016, the hedging portion of our risk management strategy associated with the living benefit guarantees recaptured from Pruco Re and Prudential Insurance, as well as the living benefit guarantees reinsured from Pruco Life, is being managed within the Company. For the portion of the risk management strategy executed through hedging, we enter into a range of exchange-traded, cleared and other OTC equity and interest rate derivatives in order to hedge certain living benefit guarantees accounted for as embedded derivatives against changes in certain capital market risks above a designated threshold. The portion of the risk management strategy comprising the hedging portion requires access to liquidity to meet the Company's payment obligations relating to these derivatives, such as payments for periodic settlements, purchases, maturities and terminations.
The hedging portion of the risk management strategy may also result in collateral postings on derivatives to or from counterparties. The net collateral position depends on changes in interest rates and equity markets related to the amount of the exposures hedged. Depending on market conditions, the collateral posting requirements can result in material liquidity needs.