Our headquarters occupy a 315,000 square foot building located on a 56-acre site zoned for office and professional use in Branchville, New Jersey, and is also the home to our solar facility. The site is owned by a subsidiary that also owns abutting property in Frankford, New Jersey. We lease all our other facilities from unrelated parties. The principal office locations of our insurance operations are listed in the “Geographic Markets” section of Item 1. “Business.” of this Form 10-K. Our Investments operations are principally located in leased space in Farmington, Connecticut. Our facilities provide adequate space for our present needs and, if additional space is needed, should be available on reasonable terms.
For more details about these segments, refer to Note 1. "Organization" and Note 12. "Segment Information" in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” of this Form 10-K.
The following is Management's Discussion and Analysis ("MD&A") of the consolidated results of operations and financial condition, as well as known trends and uncertainties, that may have a material impact in future periods. The MD&A discusses and analyzes our results in 2020 compared to 2019. Investors should read the MD&A in conjunction with Item 8. "Financial Statements." of this Form 10-K. For discussion and analysis of our 2019 results compared to 2018, refer to Item 7. "Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations." of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2019.
We have identified the policies and estimates critical to our business operations and the understanding of our results of operations. In preparing our consolidated financial statements ("Financial Statements"), we are required to make estimates and
assumptions that affect the reported amount of assets and liabilities, disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of our Financial Statements, and the reported amounts of revenue and expenses during the reporting period. We offer no assurances that actual results will be the same as those estimates, and it is possible they will differ materially. The policies and estimates we consider most critical to the preparation of the Financial Statements involved (i) reserves for loss and loss expense, (ii) investment valuations and the allowance for credit losses on available-for-sale ("AFS") fixed income securities, (iii) reinsurance, (iv) allowance for credit losses on premiums receivable, and (v) accrual for auditable premium.
The following tables provide case and incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) reserves for loss and loss expenses, and reinsurance recoverable on unpaid loss and loss expense as of December 31, 2020 and 2019:
1Includes general liability (94% of net reserves) and commercial auto liability coverages (6% of net reserves).
Reserves for loss and loss expense includes case reserves on reported claims and reserves known as incurred but not reported ("IBNR") reserves. Case reserves are estimated on each individual claim, and based on claim-specific facts and circumstances known at the time. The case reserves may be adjusted upward or downward as the specific facts and circumstances change. IBNR reserves are established at more aggregated levels and include provisions for (i) claims not yet reported, (ii) future development on reported claims, (iii) previously closed claims that will be reopened in the future, and (iv) anticipated salvage and subrogation recoveries. For additional information on our accounting policy for reserves for loss and loss expense, refer to Note. 2. “Summary of Significant Accounting Policies” in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” of this Form 10-K.
Our robust reserve process relies upon internal reserve reviews performed quarterly, based upon our own loss experience, with consideration given to various internal and external factors. In addition to our internal reserve reviews, we have an external consulting actuary perform an independent review of our reserves semi-annually. We do not rely on the external consulting actuary's report for recording our reserves; however, we do review and discuss our respective observations regarding trends, key assumptions and actuarial methodologies. While not required to be performed by an independent external actuary, our independent external actuary issues the annual statutory Statements of Actuarial Opinion for our Insurance Subsidiaries.
We have estimated a range of reasonably possible reserve estimates for net loss and loss expense of $3,250 million to $3,893 million at December 31, 2020. This range reflects low and high reasonable reserve estimates determined by judgmentally adjusting the methods, factors and assumptions selected within the internal reserve review. This approach produces a range of reasonable reserve estimates, as opposed to a distribution of all possible outcomes. Therefore, it is possible that the final outcomes may fall above or below these amounts. The range does not include a provision for potential increases or decreases associated with asbestos, environmental, and certain other continuous exposure claims, which by their nature are more variable and, therefore, traditional actuarial techniques cannot be effectively applied.
The range of reasonable reserve estimates as of December 31, 2020 has expanded relative to December 31, 2019. This is partially due to the growth in reserves commensurate with our growth in net premiums earned ("NPE"), but also recognizes the additional risks in the reserve portfolio presented by the unique legislative, judicial, economic and social environment resulting from COVID-19. Some of these uncertainties may not be resolved for an extended period of time.
During 2019, this line experienced favorable development of $5.0 million, attributable to lower loss severities in accident years 2015 and 2016, partially offset by increases in the 2017 and 2018 accident year.
By its nature, this line presents a diverse set of exposures. General liability losses and loss trends are influenced by a variety of factors, including legislative enactments, judicial decisions, and economic and social inflation. Economic inflation directly impacts our claims severities, such as increasing costs of raw materials, medical procedures and labor costs. Social inflation may impact both the frequency and severity of claims by impacting (i) the propensity for a claimant to file a claim, (ii) the percentage of claimants who engage lawyers, and (iii) the nature of judicial verdicts and amount of the associated awards.
We have exposure to abuse or molestation claims through insurance policies that we (i) principally underwrite through our Community and Public Services ("CAPS") strategic business unit and (ii) issue to schools, religious institutions, day-care facilities, and other social services. Through 2017, our exposure to abuse or molestation risk had been increasing, reflective of the growth in our CAPS book. In 2018, we introduced more stringent underwriting eligibility guidelines and partnered with a third party to better assess exposure and introduce greater loss control measures. In 2019, we filed and approved significant rate increases for this exposure. These actions have limited our growth in this strategic business unit.
We also have exposure to abuse or molestation claims from recently enacted state laws that extend the statute of limitations or permit windows for abuse or molestation claims and lawsuits to be filed that statutes of limitations previously barred. Consequently, we may receive claims decades after the alleged acts occurred for policies issued by predecessor companies that will involve complex claims coverage determinations, potential litigation, and the need to collect from reinsurers under older reinsurance agreements.
The COVID-19 pandemic presents additional risk to this line in several forms. First, as businesses reopen, they may be susceptible to claims alleging customers contracting COVID-19 due to unsafe business practices. Hiring practices may also be called into question as businesses re-staff. In addition to COVID-19-specific claims, changes in claims reporting or settlement
At December 31, 2020, our workers compensation line of business recorded reserves, net of reinsurance, of $870 million, which represented 23% of our total net reserves. During 2020, this line experienced favorable development of $60.0 million, driven by accident years 2018 and prior. During 2019, this line experienced favorable development of $68.0 million, driven by accident years 2017 and prior. During both 2020 and 2019, this line experienced lower loss emergence than expected, due, in part, to: (i) lower medical inflation than originally anticipated; (ii) our proactive underwriting actions; and (iii) various significant claims initiatives that we have implemented. Because of the length of time that injured workers receive medical treatment, decreases in medical inflation can cause favorable loss development across an extended number of accident years.
COVID-19-related impacts - While we are not a major insurer of front-line workers (e.g. medical, hospital, etc.), we do have potential exposure to employees contracting COVID-19 in the course of their employment. These claims may be asserted under "presumption statutes" implemented by certain states, shifting the burden of proof from the claimant to the insurer. Furthermore, the significant impact to unemployment, coupled with injured workers delaying non-essential procedures, may extend the duration of non-COVID-19 claims.
At December 31, 2020, our commercial automobile line of business had recorded reserves, net of reinsurance, of $645 million, which represented 17% of our total net reserves. In 2020, this line experienced unfavorable prior year development of $7.1 million, driven by higher loss severities in accident years 2016 through 2019 and higher than expected frequencies in accident year 2019. In 2019, this line experienced no material prior year reserve development. For both us and the industry, the commercial automobile line had experienced unfavorable trends in recent years. Increased frequencies were likely due to increased miles driven as a result of lower unemployment and lower gasoline prices, coupled with poor road quality, as well as an increase in distracted driving. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, along with governmental "stay-at-home" orders, dramatically reduced miles driven and road traffic, significantly reducing claims frequency. While miles driven has increased, activity remains modestly below expected levels. Conversely, both entering the pandemic and post-pandemic, we have seen rising severities on both bodily injury and property damage claims. The average value of our bodily injury paid loss settlements has increased, which may relate to a trend we have seen of more claimants using attorneys in the claims process. Increasing property damage severities may be tied to the increased repair costs for increasingly complex vehicles that incorporate more technology. These trends may be further exacerbated during the economic slow-down, where less vehicles were on the road, but driving at higher speeds.
•Reducing premium leakage by improving the quality of our rating information. This includes validating application information using third-party data and obtaining more detailed driver information.
At December 31, 2020, our personal automobile line of business had recorded reserves, net of reinsurance, of $98 million, which represented 3% of our total net reserves. In 2020, this line experienced favorable prior year reserve development of $1.8 million, mainly attributable to lower loss severities in accident year 2019. In 2019, this line experienced unfavorable prior year reserve development of $4.4 million, mainly attributable to higher loss severities in accident year 2018.
•In 2020, we created a dedicated E&S claims team within our corporate claims function to bring greater expertise and consistency to E&S claims handling.
•Claims have been segregated into “litigated” and “non-litigated” categories, separate teams with specialized skill sets handling each category.
Consistent with our strategic imperative to optimize operational efficiency, our Claims Department is continually identifying areas for improvement and efficiency to increase our value proposition to policyholders. These improvements may lead to changes in claims practices that affect average case reserve levels and claims settlement rates, which directly impact the data used to project ultimate loss and loss expense. While these changes may increase uncertainty in our estimates in the short term, we expect refined management of the claims process to be the longer-term benefit.
Our internal reserve analyses incorporate certain actuarial projection methods that make adjustments for changes in case reserve adequacy and claims settlement rates. These methods adjust our historical loss experience to the current level of case adequacy
•The weight to be applied to each individual actuarial projection method;
While the sources of reserve variability are generated by different internal and external trends and operational changes, they ultimately manifest themselves as changes in the expected loss and loss expense development patterns. These patterns are a key assumption in the reserving process. In addition, the current accident year expected loss and loss expense ratios are also a key assumption. These ratios are developed through a rigorous process of projecting recent accident years' experience to an ultimate settlement basis, and then adjusting them to the current accident year's pricing and loss cost levels. Impact from changes in the underwriting portfolio and to claims handling practices are also quantified and reflected where appropriate. As with all estimates, the ultimate loss and loss expense ratios may differ from those currently estimated.
Our general liability, excess liability, and homeowners reserves include exposure to asbestos and environmental claims. The emergence of these claims occurs over an extended period and is highly unpredictable. The total recorded net loss and loss expense reserves for these claims were $21.4 million as of December 31, 2020 and $21.6 million as of December 31, 2019.
Our asbestos and environmental claims are handled in our centralized and specialized asbestos and environmental claim unit. That unit establishes case reserves on individual claims based upon the facts and circumstances known at a given point in time, which are supplemented by bulk IBNR reserves.
Estimating IBNR reserves for asbestos and environmental claims is difficult because these claims have delayed and inconsistent reporting patterns. In addition, there are significant uncertainties associated with estimating critical reserve assumptions, such as average clean-up costs, third-party costs, potentially responsible party shares, allocation of damages, litigation and coverage costs, and potential state and federal legislative changes. Prior to the introduction of the absolute pollution exclusion endorsement in the mid-1980's, we primarily wrote Standard Personal Lines, which has limited our exposure to asbestos and environmental claims.
We also have other latent and continuous trigger exposures in our ongoing portfolio. Examples include claims for construction defect and abuse or molestation, for which states have increased and expanded the statute of limitations. We manage our exposure to these liabilities through our underwriting and claims practices and, like asbestos and environmental claims, a dedicated claims unit handles these claims. The impact of social, political, and legal trends on these claims remains highly uncertain, so our loss and loss expense reserves on these claims remain highly uncertain. These exposures remain in our ongoing portfolio, and as such, are reserved in aggregate, with other exposures within the line of business reserves.
The fair value of our investment portfolio is defined under accounting guidance as the exit price or the amount that would be (i) received to sell an asset or (ii) paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants. When determining an exit price we must, when available, rely on observable market data. The majority of securities in our equity portfolio have readily determinable fair values and are recorded at fair value with changes in unrealized gains or losses recognized through income. Our available-for-sale ("AFS") fixed income securities portfolio is recorded at fair value, and the related unrealized gains or losses are reflected in stockholders' equity, net of tax. For our AFS fixed income securities portfolios, fair value is a key factor in the measurement of (i) losses on securities for which we have the intent to sell, and (ii) changes in the allowance for credit losses.
The fair value of approximately 98% of our investments measured at fair value are classified as either Level 1 or Level 2 in the fair value hierarchy. Fair value measurements in Level 1 represent quoted prices in active markets for identical assets. The fair value of our Level 2 securities are determined by external pricing services, for which we have evaluated the pricing methodology used and determined that the inputs used are observable. Less than 2.0% of our investments measured at fair value are classified as Level 3 in the fair value hierarchy. Fair value measurements in Level 3 are based on unobservable market inputs because the related securities are not traded on a public market. For additional information regarding the valuation techniques used for our Level 3 securities, refer to item (d) of Note 2. "Summary of Significant Accounting Policies" within Item 8. "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." of this Form 10-K.
The various COVID-19-related governmental directives impacted the financial markets, which became volatile earlier in the year. This volatility increased gross unrealized losses on our AFS fixed income securities portfolio from $7.7 million at December 31, 2019, to $116.9 million at March 31, 2020. Since the end of the first quarter, the financial markets have improved and gross unrealized losses were reduced to $11.5 million at December 31, 2020. We analyzed these unrealized losses for credit loss in accordance with our existing accounting policy, which includes performing DCF analyses on each security at the lot level and analyzing these DCFs using various economic scenarios. In performing these DCF analyses, we calculate the present value of future cash flows using various models specific to the major security types in our portfolio. These models use security-specific information and forecasted macroeconomic data to determine possible expected credit loss scenarios based on projected changes in the economy. The forecasted economic data incorporated in the models is based on the Federal Reserve Board’s annual supervisory stress test review on certain large banks and financial institutions. We also have the ability to incorporate internally-developed forecast information into the models as we deem appropriate. In developing our best estimate of the allowance for credit losses, we consider our outlook as to the probability of the various scenarios occurring.
Based on these analyses, we recorded an allowance for credit losses of $4.0 million in 2020 on our AFS fixed income portfolio. After considering the allowance for credit losses, the remaining unrealized losses on this portfolio was $11.5 million. We believe that the volatility and increased unrealized loss balance was driven by fluctuating and widening credit spreads tied to financial market uncertainty about the various COVID-19-related governmental directives. If the assumptions used in our DCF analyses or our outlook as to the occurrence probability of our DCF model scenarios were to change, our allowance for credit losses and the resulting credit loss expense could be material to our results of operations.
Reinsurance recoverables on paid and unpaid loss and loss expense represent estimates of the portion of such liabilities that we will recover from reinsurers. Each reinsurance contract is analyzed to ensure that sufficient risk is transferred to properly record the transactions as reinsurance in the Financial Statements. Amounts recovered from reinsurers are recognized as assets contemporaneously and in a manner consistent with, the paid and unpaid losses associated with the reinsured policies. An allowance for credit losses on our reinsurance recoverable balance is recorded based on an evaluation of balances due from reinsurers and other available information. However, reinsurers often purchase and rely on their own retrocessional reinsurance programs to manage their capital position and improve their financial strength ratings. Details regarding retrocessional reinsurance programs are not always transparent, which can make it difficult to assess our reinsurers' exposure to counterparty credit risk. The credit quality of our reinsurers is also impacted by other factors, such as their reserve adequacy, investment portfolio, regulatory capital position, catastrophe aggregations, and risk management expertise. In addition, contractual language interpretations and willingness to pay valid claims can impact our allowance for estimated uncollectible reinsurance. Our allowance for estimated uncollectible reinsurance totaled $1.8 million at December 31, 2020, a decrease from $4.4 million at December 31, 2019, as we refined our methodology and implemented the new credit loss standard in 2020. We continually monitor developments that may impact recoverability from our reinsurers, for which we have contractual remedies if necessary. For further information regarding reinsurance, see the “Reinsurance” section below and Note 9. “Reinsurance” in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” of this Form 10-K.
Future COVID-19-related economic instability or governmental directives could ultimately impact our estimates and assumptions for credit losses on premiums receivable. Consequently, a change in our allowance estimate may be material to our results of operations in future periods. For additional details about this estimate, see Note 8. "Allowance for Credit Losses on Premiums Receivable" in Item 8. "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." of this Form 10-K.
We estimate auditable premium, which we either bill or return on expired policies based on exposure levels (i.e. payroll or sales), when it is reasonably possible to do so based on historical trends adjusted for the uncertainty of future economic conditions. If we determine it is not reasonably possible to estimate this premium, we do not do so. In the first quarter of 2020, we recorded a $75 million return audit and mid-term endorsement premium accrual in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the anticipated decline in payroll and sales exposures on the workers compensation and general liability lines of business. During the remainder of the year, we applied premium adjustments for endorsements and audits against our accrual, resulting in a remaining $24.8 million accrual as of December 31, 2020. We currently anticipate the balance of the return audit premiums will occur through the middle of 2021. Since April 2020, through active engagement between our underwriters, distribution partners, and insureds, we have set exposure levels to reflect our best estimate of how the current environment may impact our policies. As a result, we have not accrued for additional or return premium on any policies since that time. Further economic instability and renewed or extended COVID-19-related governmental directives ultimately could impact our estimates and assumptions, and consequently, changes in this liability estimate may be material to the results of operations in future periods. For additional details about this estimate, see Note 9. "Reinsurance" in Item 8. "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." of this Form 10-K.
Reconciliations of net income available to common stockholders, net income available to common stockholders per diluted common share, and ROE to non-GAAP operating income, non-GAAP operating income per diluted common share, and non-GAAP operating ROE, respectively, are provided in the tables below:
In 2020, we generated a 10.5% non-GAAP operating ROE, which fell slightly below our 11% target for the year and our 2019 return of 13.3%. Our 2020 non-GAAP operating ROE was negatively impacted by net unrealized after-tax gains on our fixed income securities portfolio, which increased our GAAP equity and decreased our non-GAAP operating ROE by approximately 120 basis points. Nevertheless, we consider this an impressive result in the context of COVID-19, significant catastrophe loss activity, and a prolonged low interest rate environment that has continued to put downward pressure on our investment portfolio returns. The following is a more detailed discussion of these items.
•A $13.5 million, pre-tax, increase to our allowance for credit losses on premiums receivable reflecting an increase in credit risk due to billing accommodations that we offered our customers, sometimes in collaboration with or at the direction of our regulators. These accommodations included individualized payment flexibility and suspended the effect of policy cancellations, late payment notices, and late or reinstatement fees. The impact of offering billing accommodations while suspending cancellations increased earned but uncollected premiums. The majority of these state regulations have expired as of the end of 2020; however, our allowance for credit losses on premiums receivable of $21.0 million is expected to cover anticipated write-offs that will occur over the corresponding collections cycle, which could last more than a year.
Overall, these four items (i) reduced pre-tax underwriting results by $33.8 million, or $0.44 per diluted common share, (ii) increased the combined ratio by 1.1 points, and (iii) decreased our ROE by 1.1 points.
Offsetting these COVID-19 specific items was a lower level of reported claim frequencies due to the reduced economic activity and other factors. These lower frequencies directly impacted our property lines loss experience. The impact of these lower than expected non-catastrophe property losses (including automobile physical damage losses) resulted in an approximate 1.2 point benefit to our combined ratio. We also reduced our 2020 commercial and personal auto casualty loss costs to partially reflect these lower frequencies for these shorter-tail lines of business, which benefited the combined ratio by 0.4 points. No other casualty lines were adjusted. These modest adjustments to our casualty loss estimates recognize the ongoing inherent uncertainty presented by COVID-19, including the potential for late reported claims and higher severities. We will continue to monitor these trends as we progress through 2021. After March 2020, due to the impact of COVID-19, we suspended business travel and entertainment in most of our regions. We also deferred some projects and new hires for a period of time. These items, which we expect to revert back to more normal levels later in 2021, benefited our 2020 expense ratio by approximately 0.7 points.
In total, we estimate the impact of the lower non-catastrophe property losses, the reduction in our loss ratio due to lower miles driven, and the benefit to the expense ratio all discussed above, collectively more than offset the negative impact from the COVID-19 specific accruals. We estimate the net benefit to our 2020 combined ratio was approximately 1.2 points.
After-tax investment income increased 2% in 2020 compared to 2019, driven by higher returns on alternative investments in our other investment portfolio. Returns on these holdings are recorded on a one-quarter lag, and the strong capital market performance in the second and third quarters of 2020 drove the higher returns. These returns, coupled with (i) operating cash flows that were 20% of 2020 NPW and (ii) proceeds from our preferred stock offering, increased invested assets by 12% during 2020. However, the increase in invested assets did not keep pace with the increase in common stockholders' equity. Accordingly, investment leverage declined, as reflected in invested assets per dollar of common stockholders' equity, which ended 2020 at $2.96, down from $3.05 at December 31, 2019. After-tax portfolio yields also were lower than a year ago, at 2.6% for 2020 compared to 2.9% for 2019, driven by a lower interest rate environment. The reduced investment leverage, coupled with lower portfolio yields, has resulted in a lower investment income contribution to ROE, which was 7.8% in 2020 compared to 9.1% in 2019.
For 2021, we established a non-GAAP operating ROE target of 11%, which is in line with our 2020 target. We based our 2021 target on our current estimated weighted average cost of capital, the current interest rate environment, and property and casualty insurance market conditions. Our ROE target sets a high bar for our financial performance, challenges us to perform at our best, and aligns our incentive compensation structure with shareholder interests. We enter 2021 in the strongest financial position in our Company's long history, and we are very well positioned to continue delivering growth and profitability.
Looking ahead to 2021, a number of areas require our continued focus to position us for ongoing success:
•Delivering a superior omnichannel customer experience by offering value-added technologies and services. We have significantly enhanced our customer experience capabilities over the last several years, and we provide our customers with various digital and self-service offerings. Investing in and building out technologies that improve the customer experience journey remains a core focus for us.
•A GAAP combined ratio, excluding catastrophe losses, of 91.0%. This assumes no prior-year casualty reserve development;
•An overall effective tax rate of approximately 20.5%, which also includes an effective tax rate of 19.0% for net investment income and 21% for all other items; and
•Weighted average shares outstanding of 60.5 million on a diluted basis.
The rate of NPW growth in 2020 was negatively impacted by approximately 4 percentage points due to the following:
Details of the prior year casualty reserve development were as follows:
In addition to the prior year casualty reserve development, current year casualty loss costs were 1.7 points lower in 2020 compared to 2019, driven by decreases in frequencies reflecting reductions in miles driven due to the COVID-19-related governmental directives impacting our commercial and personal automobile lines of business.
For qualitative discussions regarding reserve development, refer to the insurance segment sections below.
Consistent with our overall insurance operations, NPW growth in 2020 was negatively impacted by approximately 4 percentage points due to the following:
•A $15.4 million premium credit to our commercial automobile customers related to reduced miles driven and loss frequency due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Consistent with the fluctuations in NPW, the increase in NPE in 2020 compared to 2019 reflected the items discussed above.
The 0.1-point increase in the loss and loss expense ratio in 2020 compared to 2019 was driven by the following:
NPW in 2020 benefited from higher retention and renewal pure price increases. These items were partially offset by a $41.0 million reduction in audit and mid-term endorsement premiums, primarily driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, discussed in the "Insurance Operations" section above.
The combined ratio decreased 4.5 points in 2020, driven principally by an increase in favorable prior year casualty reserve development compared to 2019, as outlined in the table below.
In 2020, the prior year reserve development was primarily attributable to favorable reserve development on loss severities in accident years 2017 and prior.
While this line experienced favorable prior year casualty reserve development in 2020, we remain cautious about the inherent uncertainty presented by COVID-19, including the potential for late reported claims and higher severities. Additionally, this line is exposed to other unfavorable trends, including social inflation and state laws enacted that extend the statute of limitations or open windows for previously time-barred actions. We will continue to monitor these trends in 2021.
The 2020 prior year casualty reserve development was primarily attributable to unfavorable reserve development on loss severities in accident years 2016 through 2019 and higher than expected frequencies in accident year 2019.
This line of business remains an area of focus for us and most of the industry. Profitability challenges continue to generate
combined ratios higher than our risk-adjusted targets and the inherent uncertainty COVID-19 presents includes the potential for late reported claims and higher severities. We will continue to (i) actively implement price increases consistent with levels experienced in 2020, and (ii) enhance our underwriting tools to improve the accuracy of our rating information to prevent premium leakage. We also have been actively managing our new and renewal business, and we expect our actions will positively impact profitability through business mix improvement.
In addition to the drivers in the table above, the 2020 NPW was impacted by a $28.7 million reduction in audit and mid-term endorsement premiums driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, which is discussed in the "Insurance Operations" section above.
The increase in the combined ratio in 2020 compared to 2019 was primarily driven by less favorable prior year casualty reserve development, as follows:
margins do not support the continued negative pricing levels being set by the National Council on Compensation
NPW growth in this line in 2020 compared to 2019 was driven by (i) renewal pure price increases, (ii) new business growth, and (iii) increased retention.
Higher catastrophe losses in 2020 compared to 2019 were driven by the events mentioned in "Financial Highlights of Results for Years Ended December 31, 2020, 2019, and 2018" discussion above.
NPW declined in 2020 compared to 2019, driven by new business that did not increase enough to compensate for the non-renewed policies reflected in our 83% retention ratio. Additionally, 2020 included a $4.3 million premium credit to our Standard Personal Lines customers as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, which reduced the year-over-year NPW growth rate by 1 percentage point.
The loss and loss expense ratio increased 9.4 points in 2020 compared to 2019, the primary drivers of which were as follows:
NPW increased 4.0% in 2020 due to increases in direct new business and renewal pure price. After two consecutive years in which we exited underperforming classes of business, our focus has shifted to profitably growing segments of our E&S book that have demonstrated underwriting profitability, and identifying new profitable segments to grow.
The 2.0-point increase in the loss and loss expense ratio in 2020 compared to 2019 was primarily attributable to an increase in property losses. This was partially offset by lower unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development and a decrease in current year loss costs of 3.7 points.
We had no prior year casualty reserve development in 2020, which was a slight improvement over 2019, when unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development was relatively minor.
The 2.0-point increase in the underwriting expense ratio in 2020 compared to 2019 was primarily driven by increases in the bad debt provision during 2020 of 1.5 points.
•Pool or share proportionately the underwriting profit and loss results of property and casualty insurance underwriting operations through reinsurance;
•Permit all of the Insurance Subsidiaries to obtain a uniform rating from AM Best Company ("AM Best").
By entering into reinsurance treaties and arrangements, we can increase our underwriting capacity, accepting larger individual risks and aggregations of risks without directly increasing our capital or surplus. Our reinsurance program principally consists of traditional reinsurance. Under our reinsurance treaties, the reinsurer generally assumes a portion of the losses we cede to them in exchange for a portion of the premium. Amounts not reinsured below a specified dollar threshold are known as retention. Reinsurance does not legally discharge us from liability under the terms and limits of our policies, but it does make our reinsurer liable to us for the amount of liability we cede to them. Our reinsurers often rely on their own reinsurance programs, or retrocessions, to manage their large loss exposures. The size of the global reinsurance community is relatively small. If our reinsurers are unable to collect on their retrocessional programs, it may impair their ability to pay us for the amounts we cede to them.
•Terrorism Reinsurance, which provides a federal reinsurance backstop, behind the protection built into our property and casualty reinsurance treaties, for terrorism losses covered under the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (“TRIPRA”). For further information about TRIPRA, see Item 1A. “Risk Factors.” of this Form 10-K.
We model various catastrophic perils, and hurricane risk continues to be our portfolio's most significant natural catastrophe peril because of the geographic location of the risks we insure. The table below illustrates the impact of the five largest hurricane losses we have experienced in the last 30 years:
2Net loss does not include reinstatement premiums, taxes, or flood claims handling fees.
We review our exposure to hurricane risk by examining the results of a third-party vendor model and proprietary analysis. The third-party vendor model provides a long-term view that closely relates modeled event frequency to historical hurricane activity and is adjusted to reflect assumptions for certain non-modeled costs, such as the impact of loss expenses, residual market assessments, and automobile-related losses. We believe that modeled estimates provide a range of potential outcomes, and we review multiple estimates to understand our catastrophic risk.
1Gross losses include uncertainty associated with damage/loss estimation, demand and storm surge, and assumptions for certain un-modeled costs, such as the impact of loss expenses, residual market assessments, and automobile-related losses, which collectively increase our gross losses by approximately 13%.
2Net losses are after-tax losses net of catastrophe reinsurance including reinstatement premiums.
Our current catastrophe reinsurance program exhausts at an approximately 1 in 220 year return period, or events with 0.5% probability, based on a multi-model view of hurricane risk. Our actual gross and net losses incurred from hurricanes making U.S.-landfall will vary, perhaps materially, from our estimated modeled losses.
The property excess of loss treaty, which covers both our standard market and E&S business, was renewed on July 1, 2020, with the top layer renewed on January 1, 2021. The major terms of these treaties are consistent with the prior year.
limit; - $3 million in excess of $2 million layer with
limit; - $7 million in excess of $5 million layer with
We regularly evaluate our overall reinsurance program, and we try to develop effective ways to manage the transfer of risk. We base our analysis on a comprehensive process that includes periodic analysis of modeling results and review of our own loss experience, aggregation of exposures, exposure growth, diversification of risks, limits written, projected reinsurance costs, reinsurer financial strength, and projected impact on earnings, equity, and statutory surplus. We strive to balance reinsurer credit quality, price, terms, and our appetite to retain a certain level of risk.
Our fixed income securities and short-term investment portfolios represented 92% of our invested assets at December 31, 2020, and 96% of our invested assets at December 31, 2019. These portfolios had a weighted average credit rating of “ AA- ” as of both dates, with investment grade holdings representing 96% of these portfolios at December 31, 2020 and 97% as of December 31, 2019.
We have been actively engaged in monitoring and managing the exposure to credit risk in our portfolio associated with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related economic conditions during 2020. We have also been managing the portfolio's exposure to floating rate securities, which reset principally to 90-day LIBOR. Given the reduction in the valuation of U.S. public equities and the significant widening of high yield credit spreads earlier in the year, we modestly increased our allocation to risk-seeking assets during 2020 as we identify attractive investment opportunities. Despite the strong performance of our portfolio, the average after-tax new money yield on fixed income purchases continued to decline as treasury rates remained low
and credit spreads continued to tighten throughout the year. Given the current environment, we continue to reinvest proceeds from the non-sale disposal activity primarily related to "AAA" rated agency-backed RMBS into other high quality, but non-AAA rated fixed income sectors, as we find the risk adjusted returns more attractive. Over the coming quarters, we expect the average credit rating will decrease to "A+" from "AA-" and remain there for the foreseeable future; however, we do not anticipate a material shift in the overall risk/return characteristics of our fixed income securities portfolio.
We have audited the accompanying consolidated balance sheets of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. and subsidiaries (the "Company") as of December 31, 2020 and 2019, the related consolidated statements of income, comprehensive income, stockholders’ equity, and cash flows for each of the years in the three-year period ended December 31, 2020, and the related notes and financial statement schedules I to V (collectively, the "consolidated financial statements"). In our opinion, the consolidated financial statements present fairly, in all material respects, the financial position of the Company as of December 31, 2020 and 2019, and the results of its operations and its cash flows for each of the years in the three-year period ended December 31, 2020, in conformity with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles.
We also have audited, in accordance with the standards of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (United States) ("PCAOB"), the Company's internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2020, based on criteria established in Internal Control - Integrated Framework (2013) issued by the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission, and our report dated February 12, 2021 expressed an unqualified opinion on the effectiveness of the Company’s internal control over financial reporting.
As discussed in Notes 2 and 10 to the consolidated financial statements, the Company estimates the reserve for loss and loss expense (reserves) through an internal reserve review that relies upon methods consistent with actuarial standards of practice supplemented with other internal and external information. The Company develops reserve estimates by line of business and, as experience emerges and other information develops, the reserve estimates are assessed in aggregate and adjusted as necessary. As of December 31, 2020, the Company recorded a liability of $4.26 billion for reserves.
The following are the primary procedures we performed to address this critical audit matter. With the involvement of actuarial professionals, when appropriate, we evaluated the design and tested the operating effectiveness of certain internal controls related to the Company’s internal reserve review and determination of the Company’s best estimate of recorded reserves. We also involved actuarial professionals with specialized skills and knowledge, who assisted in:
•developing an independent estimate of reserves for certain lines of business using methods consistent with actuarial standards of practice;
•assessing movement of the Company’s recorded reserves within the consolidated range of reserves.
Selective Insurance Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, (collectively referred to as “we,” “us,” or “our”) offers standard commercial, standard personal, and excess and surplus ("E&S") lines property and casualty insurance products. Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (referred to as the “Parent”) was incorporated in New Jersey in 1977 and its corporate headquarters is located in Branchville, New Jersey. The Parent’s common and preferred stock are publicly traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market under the symbols “SIGI” and "SIGIP," respectively. We have provided a glossary of terms as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 10-K, which defines certain industry-specific and other terms that are used in this Form 10-K.
•Standard Commercial Lines - comprised of property and casualty insurance products and services provided in the standard marketplace to commercial enterprises, which are typically businesses, non-profit organizations, and local government agencies.
Our investment portfolio is primarily comprised of fixed income securities. We also hold equity securities, short-term investments, and other investments. In 2020, we began investing in commercial mortgage loans (“CMLs”). A description of our portfolio holdings, and the related presentation in our Consolidated Balance Sheet, is provided below.
•State and municipal obligations, including special revenue and general obligation bonds;
•Corporate securities, which may include investment grade and below investment grade bonds, bank loan investments, redeemable preferred stock, and non-redeemable preferred stock with certain debt-like characteristics;
We have designated substantially all of the holdings in our fixed income portfolio as available-for-sale ("AFS"). These securities are reported at fair value in our Consolidated Balance Sheet. The after-tax difference between fair value and cost or
amortized cost is reflected in stockholders’ equity as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) ("AOCI").
CMLs are loans secured by commercial property, such as an office building, multi-family apartment complex, industrial warehouse, or shopping center. We may acquire investments in CMLs through (i) direct originations under a loan syndication arrangement or (ii) a marketplace purchase. We record our investment in CMLs on the settlement date of the loan. Our CMLs are classified as held-for-investment and reported at amortized cost, net of the applicable allowance for credit losses ("ACL"), on our Consolidated Balance Sheet. Interest is recorded using the effective yield method and accrued interest on our CMLs is recorded as a component of “Interest and dividends due or accrued” on our Consolidated Balance Sheet.
Short-term investments may include money market instruments, savings accounts, commercial paper, and fixed income securities purchased with a maturity of less than one year. We also enter into reverse repurchase agreements that are included in short-term investments. These repurchase agreements are fully collateralized by high-quality, readily-marketable instruments that support the principal amount. At maturity, we receive principal and interest income on these agreements. Short-term investments are generally reported at fair value.
We evaluate the alternative investments and tax credit investments included in our other investments portfolio to determine whether those investments are variable interest entities ("VIEs") and if so, whether consolidation is required. A VIE is an entity that either has equity investors that lack certain essential characteristics of a controlling financial interest or lack sufficient
funds to finance its own activities without financial support provided by other entities. We consider several significant factors in determining if our investments are VIEs and if we are the primary beneficiary, including whether we have (i) the power to direct activities of the VIE, (ii) the ability to remove the decision maker of the VIE, (iii) the ability to participate in making decisions that are significant to the VIE, and (iv) the obligation to absorb losses and the right to receive benefits that could potentially be significant to the VIE. We have reviewed our alternative and tax credit investments and have concluded that they are VIEs, but that we are not the primary beneficiary and therefore, consolidation is not required.
Net investment income earned on our Consolidated Statement of Income includes the following:
•Losses on securities for which we have the intent to sell, which are discussed further below; and
•Net credit loss expense or benefit resulting from changes in the ACL related to our investment portfolio, which also is discussed further below.
Losses on securities for which we have the intent to sell and ACL on AFS Fixed Income Securities and Short-Term Investments
Our DCF analyses calculate the present value of expected future cash flows using various models specific to the major security types in our portfolio. These models use security-specific information as well as forecasted macroeconomic data to determine possible expected credit loss scenarios based on projected changes in the economy. The forecasted economic data incorporated into the models is based on the Federal Reserve Board’s annual supervisory stress test review on certain large banks and financial institutions. We also have the ability to incorporate internally-developed forecast information into the models as we deem appropriate. The discount rate used in a DCF is one of the following:
•The effective interest rate in effect as of the reporting date for non-fixed rate securities; and
•The effective interest rate implicit in the security at the date of acquisition for all other securities.
We do not record a valuation allowance on the accrued interest balance associated with our fixed income securities as we reverse delinquent amounts on a timely basis. We consider a fixed income security to be past due at the time any principal or interest payments become 90 days delinquent.
We utilize a forecasting model to estimate lifetime expected credit losses at a loan level under multiple economic scenarios. The scenarios use macroeconomic data such as unemployment and inflation to project property-specific operating income and capitalization rates that are used to estimate the value of the future operating income stream. This information, coupled with historical data about mortgage loan performance, is used to project the probability of default, the amount of loss given a default, and the resulting lifetime expected loss.
•Changes made or future changes to be made to the investment strategy;
•An adverse development of the expected receipt of remaining tax credits and other tax benefits; and
•A significant deterioration in the financial condition or liquidity of the Federal Home Loan Bank.
The fair values of our investments are generated using various valuation techniques and are placed into the fair value hierarchy considering the following: (i) the highest priority is given to quoted prices in active markets for identical assets (Level 1); (ii) the next highest priority is given to quoted prices in markets that are not active or inputs that are observable either directly or indirectly, including quoted prices for similar assets in markets that are not active and other inputs that can be derived principally from, or corroborated by, observable market data for substantially the full term of the assets (Level 2); and (iii) the lowest priority is given to unobservable inputs supported by little or no market activity and that reflect our assumptions about the exit price, including assumptions that market participants would use in pricing the asset (Level 3). An asset’s classification within the fair value hierarchy is based on the lowest level of significant input to its valuation.
In addition to our CML portfolio, certain securities in our AFS fixed income portfolio are priced using unobservable inputs. These valuations are primarily based on broker quotes, or they are received from other third-party sources, for which there is a
Changes in our ACL are charged to earnings as credit loss expense or benefit, which is a component of "Other insurance expenses" on our Consolidated Statements of Income, with an offsetting ACL recorded as a contra-asset reflected in the carrying value of the receivable. We charge write-offs against the allowance when we determine the account to be uncollectible after considering information obtained from our collection efforts.
developing our best estimate of the allowance for credit losses, we consider our outlook as to the probability of each of these scenarios occurring.
Changes in our ACL are charged to earnings as credit loss expense, which is a component of “Loss and loss expense incurred” on our Consolidated Statement of Income, with an offsetting ACL recorded as a contra-asset reflected in the carrying value of the recoverable balance. We charge write-offs against the ACL when we determine the recoverable balance to be uncollectible after considering information obtained from our efforts to collect amounts due or through a review of the financial condition of the reinsurer.
Property and equipment used in operations, including certain costs incurred to develop or obtain computer software for internal use, are capitalized and recorded at cost less accumulated depreciation. Depreciation is calculated using the straight-line method over the estimated useful lives of the assets. The following estimated useful lives can be considered as general guidelines:
We recorded depreciation expense of $21.5 million, $18.7 million, and $19.5 million for 2020, 2019, and 2018, respectively.
We evaluate our reserves quarterly, through our comprehensive reserve review process and adjustments to recorded reserves are made accordingly. The primary input in evaluating reserve levels is the quarterly reserve review prepared by our internal actuaries, which provides comprehensive loss and loss expense projections. Our reviews are based primarily on our own loss experience, organized by line of business. Where sufficient statistical credibility exists, we may further segment the experience by coverage within line, or by geographic area. Generally accepted actuarial methodologies are applied to these reserve groups to produce ultimate loss and loss expense projections.
The combination of the IBNR estimates along with the case reserve estimates on individual claims results in our total reserves for loss and loss expense. These reserves are expected to be sufficient for settling loss and loss expense obligations under our policies on unpaid claims, including changes in the volume of business written, claims frequency and severity, the mix of business, claims processing, and other items that management expects to affect our ultimate settlement of loss and loss expense. However, our loss and loss expense reserves are estimates of future events, the outcomes of which are not yet known. As with all estimates, they carry inherent uncertainty, which may be driven by internal factors, such as changes to our claims or underwriting operations, or external factors, such as changes in legislative, judicial, economic, or social trends. Furthermore, actual outcomes are impacted by inherent randomness, such as the actual number of accidents/incidents, or the occurrence or non-occurrence of a single large event. Because of these uncertainties, it is possible that actual outcomes will differ materially from the reserves established. While this risk cannot be eliminated, we review our reserves quarterly based upon the information available at that time, and make adjustments to our ultimate loss and loss expense estimates accordingly. These changes in our ultimate loss and loss expense estimates are reflected in the Consolidated Statements of Income for the period in which such estimates are changed. Any changes in the liability estimate could be material to the results of operations in future periods.
Loss reserves are estimates, and as such, we also consider a range of possible loss and loss expense reserve estimates. This range is determined at the beginning of each year, using prior year-end data, and reflects the fact that there is no single precise method for estimating the required reserves, due to the many factors that may influence the amounts ultimately paid.
Claims are counted at the occurrence, line of business, and policy level. For example, if a single occurrence (e.g. an automobile accident) leads to a claim under an automobile and an associated umbrella policy, they are each counted separately. Conversely, multiple claimants under the same occurrence/line/policy would contribute only a single count. The claim counts provided are on a reported basis. A claim is considered reported when a reserve is established or a payment is made. Therefore, claims closed without payment are included in the count as long as there was an associated case reserve at some point in its life cycle.
Premiums written are recognized as revenue over the period that coverage is provided using the semi-monthly pro-rata method. Unearned premiums and prepaid reinsurance premiums represent that portion of premiums written that are applicable to the unexpired terms of policies in force.
We determine if an arrangement is a lease on the commencement date of the contract. Lease assets represent our right to use an underlying asset for the lease term, and lease liabilities represent our obligation to make lease payments arising from the lease. The lease asset and liability are measured by the present value of the future minimum lease payments over the lease term. Our fleet vehicle leases include a residual value guarantee; however, the residual value guarantee is not probable of being owed. Therefore, there is no impact to the lease liability or lease asset. To measure the present value, we use the discount rate in the contract. If the discount rate is not readily determinable, our incremental borrowing rate is used. The lease asset is then adjusted to exclude lease incentives. We recognize variable lease payments in the periods in which the obligations for those payments are incurred. In calculating a lease liability, we include options to extend or terminate the lease if it is reasonably certain that we will exercise such option. Lease expense is calculated using the straight-line method. In addition, we have adopted accounting policy elections to: (i) aggregate lease and non-lease components into a single lease component; and (ii) expense short-term leases on a straight-line basis over the lease term.
Two key assumptions, the discount rate and the expected return on plan assets, are important elements of expense and/or liability measurement. We evaluate these key assumptions annually unless facts indicate that a more frequent review is required. The discount rate enables us to state expected future cash flows at their present value on the measurement date. The purpose of the discount rate is to determine the interest rates inherent in the price at which pension benefits could be effectively settled. Our discount rate selection is based on high-quality, long-term corporate bonds. To determine the expected long-term rate of return on the plan assets, we consider the current and expected asset allocation, as well as historical and expected returns on each plan asset class. Other assumptions involve demographic factors such as retirement age and mortality. A portion of our plan assets is allocated to a liability hedging strategy through which we have an expectation that our plan assets will move in tandem with a portion of the plan liabilities, helping to mitigate funding ratio volatility.
In June 2016, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”) issued Accounting Standards Update 2016-13, Financial Instruments - Credit Losses, and subsequent additional implementation guidance (collectively referred to as “ASU 2016-13”) that changes the way entities recognize impairment of financial assets. The new guidance requires immediate recognition of estimated credit losses expected to occur over the remaining life of many financial assets through the establishment of an ACL. The ACL is a measurement of expected losses based on relevant information about past events, including historical experience, current conditions, and reasonable and supportable forecasts that affect the collectability of the reported amount. Additionally, ASU 2016-03 requires the presentation of the impacted financial assets on the Consolidated Balance Sheet net of the ACL.
We adopted this guidance on January 1, 2020, applied a modified retrospective approach for the adoption, and recorded a net cumulative-effect adjustment to increase the opening balance of 2020 retained earnings by $1.4 million, after tax. As prescribed in ASU 2016-13, we did not adjust the amortized cost basis of any securities for which we previously had recorded other-than-temporary impairment ("OTTI") losses. The cumulative-effect increase to retained earnings represents the net adjustment required to (i) establish the ACL on our held-to-maturity ("HTM") debt securities and (ii) re-estimate the ACL on our premiums receivables and reinsurance recoverables under ASU 2016-13. See Note 2. "Summary of Significant Accounting Policies" of this Form 10-K for accounting policy updates related to ASU 2016-13. Additionally, see Note 5. "Investments," Note 8. "Allowance for Credit Losses on Premiums Receivable," and Note 9. "Reinsurance" of this Form 10-K for additional information regarding expected credit losses related to the respective financial assets.
In August 2018, the FASB issued ASU 2018-13, Fair Value Measurement: Disclosure Framework - Changes to the Disclosure Requirements for Fair Value Measurement (“ASU 2018-13”). ASU 2018-13 modifies the disclosure requirements for fair value measurements by removing certain disclosures, and modifying and adding disclosure requirements. The additional disclosure requirements include (i) the change in unrealized gains and losses for the period included in other comprehensive income (“OCI”) for recurring Level 3 fair value measurements held at the end of the reporting period, and (ii) the range and weighted average of significant observable inputs used to develop Level 3 fair value measurements. We adopted the provisions related to removed disclosures in the fourth quarter of 2019 and adopted the remaining disclosure requirements in the first quarter of 2020. As it requires disclosure only, ASU 2018-13 has no impact on our financial condition or results of operations.
In December 2019, the FASB issued ASU 2019-12, Income Taxes - Simplifying the Accounting for Income Taxes (“ASU 2019-12”). Among other items, ASU 2019-12 simplifies the accounting treatment of tax law changes and year-to-date losses in interim periods. An entity generally recognizes the effects of a change in tax law in the period of enactment; however, there is an exception for tax laws with delayed effective dates. Under current guidance, an entity may not adjust its annual effective tax
For year-to-date losses in interim periods, an entity is required currently to estimate its annual effective tax rate for the full fiscal year at the end of each interim period and use that rate to calculate its income taxes on a year-to-date basis. When an interim period loss exceeds the anticipated loss for the year, the income tax benefit is limited to the amount that would be recognized if the year-to-date loss were the anticipated loss for the full year. ASU 2019-12 removes this limitation and allows an entity to compute its income tax benefit at each interim period based on its estimated annual effective tax rate.
We will adopt this guidance on January 1, 2021 and it will not have a material impact to our financial condition, cash flows, or results of operations upon adoption.
Supplemental cash flow information for the years ended December 31, 2020, 2019, and 2018 is as follows:
(a) Net unrealized gains on investments included in OCI by asset class were as follows for the years ended December 31, 2020, 2019, and 2018:
1Upon adoption of ASU 2016-01, we recognized a $30.7 million cumulative-effect adjustment to the opening balance of AOCI, which represents the after-tax net unrealized gain on our equity portfolio as of December 31, 2018. Additionally, upon adoption of ASU 2018-02, we recognized a one-time reclassification from AOCI to retained earnings for $17.9 million representing the stranded tax assets related to our investment portfolio that were created in AOCI from the enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.
The following table provides a roll forward of the allowance for credit losses on our AFS fixed income securities for 2020:
We do not currently intend to sell any of the securities in the tables above, nor will we be required to sell any of these securities. Considering these factors and our review of these securities under our credit loss policy as described in Note 2. “Summary of Significant Accounting Policies” of this Form 10-K, we have concluded that no ACL is required on these balances. This conclusion reflects our current judgment as to the financial position and future prospects of the entity that issued the investment security and underlying collateral.
contractual maturities because issuers may have the right to call or prepay obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties.
Listed below are the contractual maturities of fixed income securities at December 31, 2020:
(e) The following table summarizes our other investment portfolio by strategy:
•Primary Private Equity: This strategy makes private equity investments, primarily in established large and middle market companies across diverse industries globally, with an emphasis on North America.
•Venture Capital: In general, these investments are made principally by investing in equity securities of startup companies and small-to-medium sized privately-held corporations with strong long-term growth potential. This strategy makes private equity investments in seed stage, early stage, late stage, and growth equity partnerships.
•Mezzanine Financing: This strategy provides privately-negotiated fixed income securities, generally with an equity component, to LBO firms and private and publicly-traded large, mid, and small-cap companies to finance LBOs, recapitalizations, and acquisitions.
•Opportunistic and Distressed Debt: This strategy makes investments in debt and equity securities of companies that are experiencing financial distress, operational issues, or dislocated pricing of publicly-traded securities. Investments
(f) We did not have exposure to any credit concentration risk of a single issuer greater than 10% of our stockholders' equity, other than certain U.S. government agencies, as of December 31, 2020 or December 31, 2019.
(h) The components of pre-tax net investment income earned were as follows:
(i) The following tables summarize net realized and unrealized investment gains and losses for the periods indicated:
Proceeds from the sales of AFS fixed income securities were $487.1 million, $594.7 million, and $2,030.7 million in 2020, 2019, and 2018, respectively. Proceeds from the sales of equity securities were $1.3 million, $137.3 million, and $113.3 million in 2020, 2019, and 2018, respectively.
Net realized gains (losses) on disposals in the table above were driven by the following:
The financial assets in our investment portfolio are primarily measured at fair value as disclosed on the Consolidated Balance Sheets. The following table presents the carrying amounts and estimated fair values of our financial liabilities as of December 31, 2020 and 2019:
For discussion regarding the fair value techniques of our financial instruments, refer to Note 2. "Summary of Significant Accounting Policies" of this Form 10-K.
The following tables provide quantitative disclosures of our financial assets that were measured and recorded at fair value at December 31, 2020 and 2019:
1Investments amounting to $46.8 million and $37.8 million at December 31, 2020 and December 31, 2019, respectively, were measured at fair value using the net asset value per share (or its practical expedient) and have not been classified in the fair value hierarchy. These investments are not redeemable and the timing of liquidations of the underlying assets is unknown at each reporting period. The fair value amounts presented in this table are intended to permit reconciliation of the fair value hierarchy to total assets measured at fair value.
The following table provides a roll forward of the ACL on our premiums receivable balance for 2020:
1See Note 3. "Adoption of Accounting Pronouncements" above for additional information regarding our adoption of ASU 2016-13.
In 2020, we recognized an additional allowance for credit losses of $13.5 million, net of write-offs and recoveries. We based this increase on an evaluation of the recoverability of our premiums receivable in light of (i) the billing accommodations we announced during the first quarter of 2020, and (ii) the impact of certain state regulations that provided for deferral of payments without cancellation for a period up to 90 days and increased earned but uncollected premiums. The billing accommodations included individualized payment flexibility and suspending the effect of policy cancellations, late payment notices, and late or reinstatement fees.
Our Financial Statements reflect the effects of assumed and ceded reinsurance transactions. Assumed reinsurance refers to the acceptance of certain insurance risks that other insurance entities have underwritten. Ceded reinsurance involves transferring certain insurance risks (along with the related written and earned premiums) that we have underwritten to other insurance companies that agree to share these risks. The primary purpose of ceded reinsurance is to protect the Insurance Subsidiaries from potential losses in excess of the amount that we are prepared to accept. Our major treaties covering property, property catastrophe, and casualty business are excess of loss contracts. In addition, we have an intercompany quota share (proportional) pooling arrangement and other minor reinsurance treaties.
As a Standard Commercial Lines and E&S Lines writer, we are subject to the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act ("TRIPRA"), which was extended by Congress to December 31, 2027. TRIPRA requires private insurers and the U. S. government to share the risk of loss on future acts of terrorism certified by the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury. Under TRIPRA, each participating insurer is responsible for paying a deductible of specified losses before federal assistance is available. This deductible is based on a percentage of the prior year’s applicable Standard Commercial Lines and E&S Lines premiums. In 2021, our deductible, before tax, is approximately $369 million. For losses above the deductible, the federal government will pay 80% of losses to an industry limit of $100 billion, and the insurer retains 20%.
The Insurance Subsidiaries remain liable to policyholders to the extent that any reinsurer becomes unable to meet their contractual obligations. In addition to this direct counterparty credit risk, we have indirect counterparty credit risk as our reinsurers often enter into their own reinsurance programs, or retrocessions, as part of managing their exposure to large losses and improving their financial strength ratings. The credit quality of our reinsurers is also impacted by other factors, such as their reserve adequacy, investment portfolio, regulatory capital position, catastrophe aggregations, and risk management expertise. We evaluate and monitor the financial condition of our reinsurers under voluntary reinsurance arrangements to minimize our exposure to significant losses from reinsurer insolvencies. Contractual language interpretations and willingness to pay valid claims can impact our allowance for estimated uncollectible reinsurance.
1See Note 3. "Adoption of Accounting Pronouncements" for additional information regarding our adoption of ASU 2016-13.
Direct premiums written ("DPW") increased by 4% in 2020 compared to an increase of 7% in 2019. The decline in our DPW growth rate was primarily attributable to the following:
ii.A $19.7 million premium credit to our personal and commercial automobile policyholders. Because of the unprecedented nature of the COVID-19-related governmental directives and the associated expected short-term favorable claims frequency impact, we obtained regulatory approval during April to provide this premium credit to our personal and commercial automobile customers. The premium credit to customers with in-force policies was equivalent to 15% of their April and May premiums.
The ceded premiums and losses related to our participation in the NFIP, under which 100% of our flood premiums and loss and loss expense are ceded to the NFIP, were as follows:
Our net loss and loss expense reserves increased by $183.1 million in 2020, $166.5 million in 2019, and $171.1 million in 2018. The loss and loss expense reserves are net of anticipated recoveries for salvage and subrogation claims, which amounted to $80.9 million for 2020, $76.7 million for 2019, and $67.7 million for 2018. The increase in net loss and loss expense reserves in 2020 was primarily driven by increases in exposure due to premium growth.
This increase in our net loss and loss expense reserves was partially offset by favorable prior year loss development. In 2020, we experienced overall net favorable prior year loss development of $72.9 million, compared to $50.3 million in 2019 and $29.9 million in 2018.
The following table summarizes the prior year reserve development by line of business:
The Insurance Subsidiaries had $72.9 million of favorable prior accident year reserve development during 2020, which included $85.0 million of net favorable casualty reserve development and $12.1 million of unfavorable property reserve development. The net favorable casualty reserve development was largely driven by the workers compensation and general liability lines of business. Workers compensation was impacted by continued favorable medical trends in accident years 2018 and prior, and general liability development was attributable to lower loss severities in accident years 2017 and prior. Partially offsetting this net favorable reserve development was $10 million of unfavorable casualty reserve development in the commercial auto line of business ($7.1 million net of property reserve development), driven by unfavorable reserve development on loss severities in accident years 2016 through 2019, and higher than expected frequencies in accident year 2019.
The Insurance Subsidiaries had $50.3 million of favorable prior accident year reserve development during 2019, which included $61.0 million of net favorable casualty reserve development and $10.7 million of unfavorable property reserve development. The net favorable casualty reserve development was largely driven by the workers compensation line of business, reflecting continued favorable medical trends in accident years 2017 and prior.
Traditional accident year loss development methods cannot be applied because past loss history is not necessarily indicative of future behavior. Instead, we review the experience by calendar year and rely on alternative metrics, such as paid and incurred survival ratios. As a result, reserves for asbestos and environmental require a high degree of judgment. Because of the significant uncertainty in the estimate, we do not calculate an asbestos and environmental loss range.
(d) The following is information about incurred and paid claims development as of December 31, 2020, net of reinsurance, as well as cumulative claim frequency and the associated IBNR liabilities. During the experience period, we implemented a series of underwriting and claims-related initiatives, as well as, claims management changes. These initiatives focused on exiting underperforming books of business, claims handling and reserving, medical claims costs, and loss expenses. As a result of these initiatives, several historical patterns have changed and may no longer be appropriate to use as the sole basis for projections.
•On March 19, 2020, Selective Insurance Company of South Carolina ("SICSC") and Selective Insurance Company of the Southeast ("SICSE") borrowed $39 million and $28 million, respectively, from the FHLBI at an interest rate of 0.58%. These borrowings were repaid on December 14, 2020.
•On March 24, 2020, the Parent borrowed $50 million on its line of credit issued by the Bank of Montreal at an interest rate of 2.244%. This borrowing was repaid on May 8, 2020.
The table below outlines information regarding certain covenants in the Line of Credit:
(1) In the first quarter of 2019, we issued $300 million of 5.375% Senior Notes due 2049 at a discount of $5.9 million which, when coupled with debt issuance costs of approximately $3.3 million, resulted in net proceeds from the offering of $290.8 million. The 5.375% Senior Notes pay interest on March 1 and September 1 of each year. The first payment was made on September 1, 2019. A portion of the proceeds from this debt issuance was used to fully redeem the $185 million aggregate principal amount of our 5.875% Senior Notes due 2043, with the remaining $106 million being used for general corporate purposes. The 5.875% Senior Notes had pre-tax debt retirement costs of $4.2 million, or $3.3 million after tax, which was recorded in Interest expense on the Consolidated Statements of Income in the first quarter of 2019. There are no financial debt covenants to which we are required to comply in regards to the 5.375% Senior Notes.
(5) In November 2004, we issued $50 million of 7.25% Senior Notes due 2034. These notes were issued at a discount of $0.1 million, resulting in an effective yield of 7.27%. We contributed $25 million of the bond proceeds to the Insurance Subsidiaries as capital. The remainder of the proceeds was used for general corporate purposes. The agreements covering these notes contain a standard default cross-acceleration provision that provides the 7.25% Senior Notes will enter a state of default upon the failure to pay principal when due or upon any event or condition that results in an acceleration of principal of any other debt instrument in excess of $10 million that we have outstanding concurrently with the 7.25% Senior Notes. There are no financial debt covenants to which we are required to comply in regards to these notes.
We evaluate the results of our four reportable segments as follows:
•Our Standard Commercial Lines, Standard Personal Lines, and E&S Lines are evaluated based on before and after-tax underwriting results (net premiums earned, incurred loss and loss expense, policyholders dividends, policy acquisition costs, and other underwriting expenses), return on equity ("ROE") contribution, and combined ratios.
•Our Investments segment is primarily evaluated after-tax net investment income and its ROE contribution. After-tax net realized and unrealized gains and losses, which are not included in non-GAAP operating income, are also included in our Investment segment results.
(a) A reconciliation of federal income tax on income at the corporate rate (21%) to the effective tax rate is as follows:
(b) The tax effects of the significant temporary differences that gave rise to deferred tax assets and liabilities were as follows:
We have analyzed our tax positions in all open tax years, which as of December 31, 2020 were 2017 through 2020. The 2018 tax year is currently under audit. We do not expect any material adjustments to arise out of the 2018 audit.
SICA maintains a defined benefit pension plan, the Retirement Income Plan for Selective Insurance Company of America (the "Pension Plan"). This qualified, noncontributory plan is closed to new entrants and existing participants ceased accruing benefits after March 31, 2016.
The following tables provide details on the Pension Plan for 2020 and 2019:
1The components of net periodic pension cost (benefit) are included within "Loss and loss expense incurred" and "Other insurance expenses" on the Consolidated Statements of Income.
When determining the most appropriate discount rate to be used in the valuation, we consider, among other factors, our expected payout patterns of the Pension Plan's obligations as well as our investment strategy, and we ultimately select the rate that we believe best represents our estimate of the inherent interest rate at which our pension benefits can be effectively settled. The approach we utilize discounts the individual expected cash flows using the applicable spot rates derived from the yield curve over the projected cash flow period. Our discount rate decreased 65 basis points, to 2.68%, as of December 31, 2020, compared to 3.33% as of December 31, 2019, which drove the increase in the benefit obligation for the period. The weighted average discount rate used to determine 2021 interest cost was 2.06%.
The Pension Plan’s target ranges, as well as the actual weighted average asset allocation by strategy, at December 31 were as follows:
The use of derivative instruments is permitted under certain circumstances for the Pension Plan portfolio, but may not be used for unrelated speculative purposes or to create exposures that are not permitted in the Pension Plan's investment guidelines. We currently invest in a U.S. Treasury overlay derivative strategy, within the funds in our liability hedging assets, to manage the interest rate duration mismatch between the assets and liabilities of the Pension Plan to help insulate the funded status of the plan. Considering the impact of this derivative overlay, the liability hedging assets provide for an approximate 65% hedge against the projected benefit obligation.
•The investments in private limited partnerships are valued utilizing net asset value as a practical expedient for fair value. These investments are not classified in the fair value hierarchy.
•Short-term investments are recorded at fair value. Given that these investments are listed on active exchanges, coupled with their liquid nature, these investments are classified as Level 1 in the fair value hierarchy.
•The deposit administration contract is recorded at cost, which approximates fair value. Given the liquid nature of the underlying investments in overnight cash deposits and other short-term duration products, we have determined that a correlation exists between the deposit administration contract and other short-term investments, such as money market funds. As such, this investment is classified as Level 2 in the fair value hierarchy.
1In accordance with ASU 2015-07, certain investments that are measured at fair value using the net asset value per share (or its practical expedient) have not been classified in the fair value hierarchy. The fair value amounts presented in this table are intended to permit reconciliation of the fair value hierarchy to total Pension Plan invested assets.
We presently do not anticipate contributing to the Pension Plan in 2021, as we have no minimum required contribution amounts.
•The Cash Incentive Plan, As Amended and Restated as of May 1, 2014 (the "Cash Plan");
•The Amended and Restated Stock Purchase Plan for Independent Insurance Agencies (2010), Amended and Restated as of November 1, 2020 (the "Agent Plan").
The following plans are closed for the issuance of new awards, although awards outstanding continue in effect according to the terms of the applicable award agreements:
The total intrinsic value of options exercised was $1.3 million in 2020, $5.2 million in 2019, and $4.5 million in 2018.
The fair value of the CIU liability is remeasured at each reporting period through the settlement date of the awards, which is three years from the date of grant based on an amount expected to be paid. A Monte Carlo simulation is performed to approximate the projected fair value of the CIUs that, in accordance with the CIU agreements established under the Cash Plan, is adjusted to reflect our performance on specified indicators compared to targeted peer companies.
The following table provides share-based compensation expense in 2020, 2019, and 2018:
We have 5,000,000 shares of preferred stock authorized, with no par value, of which (i) 300,000 shares are designated Series A junior preferred stock, which have not been issued, and (ii) 8,000 shares have been issued as Series B in 2020 as discussed below.
(equivalent to $25.00 per depository share), plus unpaid dividends attributable to the current dividend period in circumstances where a capital regulator such as a state insurance regulator changes or proposes to change capital adequacy rules.
In 2005, we established a private foundation, now named The Selective Insurance Group Foundation (the "Foundation"), under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. The Board of the Foundation is comprised of some of the Parent's officers. We made $0.5 million of contributions to the Foundation in 2020 and 2018, and $1.3 million in 2019.
Our Pension Plan's investment portfolio contained investments in BlackRock funds of $191.8 million at December 31, 2020 and $144.2 million at December 31, 2019. During 2020, with regard to BlackRock funds, the Pension Plan (i) purchased $56.7 million, (ii) sold $44.9 million, and (iii) recorded net investment income of $35.8 million. In 2019, with regard to BlackRock funds, the Pension Plan (i) purchased $19.7 million, (ii) sold $44.1 million, and (iii) recorded net investment income of $36.7 million. In 2018, with regard to BlackRock funds, the Pension Plan (i) purchased $132.5 million, (ii) sold $125.6 million, and (iii) recorded net investment income of $9.3 million. In addition, our Deferred Compensation Plan and Retirement Savings Plan may offer our employees the option to invest in various BlackRock funds. All contracts and transactions with BlackRock were consummated in the ordinary course of business on an arm's-length basis.
The components of lease expense for the year ended December 31, 2020 were as follows:
(a) We purchase annuities from life insurance companies to fulfill obligations under claim settlements that provide for periodic future payments to claimants. As of December 31, 2020, we had purchased such annuities with a present value of $29.1 million for settlement of claims on a structured basis for which we are contingently liable. To our knowledge, there are no material defaults from any of the issuers of such annuities.
All of our commercial property and businessowners' policies require direct physical loss of or damage to property by a covered cause of loss. It also is our practice to include in, or attach to, all standard lines commercial property and businessowners' policies an exclusion that states that all loss or property damage caused by or resulting from any virus, bacterium, or other microorganism that induces or is capable of inducing physical distress, illness, or disease is not a covered cause of loss ("Virus Exclusion"). Whether COVID-19 related contamination, the existence of COVID-19 pandemic, and the resulting COVID-19 related government shutdown orders cause physical loss of or damage to property is the subject of much public debate and first-party coverage litigation against some insurers, including us. The Virus Exclusion also is the subject of first-party coverage litigation against some insurers, including us. We cannot predict the outcome of litigation over these two coverage issues, including interpretation of provisions similar or identical to those in our insurance policies.
Our ability to declare and pay dividends on the Parent's common stock is dependent on liquidity at the Parent coupled with the ability of the Insurance Subsidiaries to declare and pay dividends, if necessary, and/or the availability of other sources of liquidity to the Parent.
In addition to regulatory restrictions on the availability of dividends that our Insurance Subsidiaries can pay to the Parent, the maximum amount of dividends the Parent can pay our shareholders is limited by certain New Jersey corporate law provisions that limit dividends if either: (i) the Parent would be unable to pay its debts as they became due in the usual course of business; or (ii) the Parent’s total assets would be less than its total liabilities. The Parent’s ability to pay dividends to shareholders also
As noted above, the restriction on our net assets and retained earnings is predominantly driven by our Insurance Subsidiaries' ability to pay dividends to the Parent under applicable laws and regulations. Under the insurance laws of the domiciliary states of the Insurance Subsidiaries, New Jersey, Indiana, and New York, an insurer can potentially make an ordinary dividend payment if its statutory surplus following such dividend is reasonable in relation to its outstanding liabilities, is adequate to its financial needs, and the dividend does not exceed the insurer's unassigned surplus. In general, New Jersey defines an ordinary dividend as a dividend whose fair market value, together with other dividends made within the preceding 12 months, is less than the greater of 10% of the insurer's statutory surplus as of the preceding December 31, or the insurer's net income (excluding capital gains) for the 12-month period ending on the preceding December 31. Indiana's ordinary dividend calculation is consistent with New Jersey's, except that it does not exclude capital gains from net income. In general, New York defines an ordinary dividend as a dividend whose fair market value, together with other dividends made within the preceding 12 months, is less than the lesser of 10% of the insurer's statutory surplus, or 100% of adjusted net investment income.
The table below provides the following information: (i) quantitative data regarding all Insurance Subsidiaries' dividends paid to the Parent in 2020, which was used for debt service, shareholder dividends, and general operating purposes; and (ii) the maximum ordinary dividends that can be paid to the Parent by the Insurance Subsidiaries in 2021, based on the 2020 statutory financial statements.