On January 14, 2016, we completed the acquisition of The Chubb Corporation (Chubb Corp). The results of operations of Chubb Corp are included in our results from the acquisition date forward (i.e., after January 14, 2016 and only in the 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 columns) within the table below.
The Underwriting and administrative expense ratio is calculated by dividing the policy acquisition costs and administrative expenses, excluding the Life Insurance segment, by Net premiums earned - excluding Life Insurance segment. Policy acquisition costs and administrative expenses for the Life Insurance segment were $943 million, $867 million, $833 million, $816 million, and $767 million for the years ended December 31, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, and 2015, respectively.
The following is a discussion of our results of operations, financial condition, and liquidity and capital resources as of and for the year ended December 31, 2019. This discussion should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and related Notes, under Item 8 of this Form 10-K.
the ability to collect reinsurance recoverable, credit developments of reinsurers, and any delays with respect thereto and changes in the cost, quality, or availability of reinsurance;
general economic and business conditions resulting from volatility in the stock and credit markets and the depth and duration of potential recession;
risks and uncertainties relating to our planned purchases of additional interests in Huatai Insurance Group Company Limited (Huatai Group), including our ability to receive Chinese insurance regulatory approval and complete the purchases;
We operate through six business segments: North America Commercial P&C Insurance, North America Personal P&C Insurance, North America Agricultural Insurance, Overseas General Insurance, Global Reinsurance, and Life Insurance. For more information on our segments refer to “Segment Information” under Item 1.
We have grown our business through increased premium volume, expansion of product offerings and geographic reach, and acquisitions of other companies.
Our net investment income increased 3.6 percent in 2019, reflecting strong operating cash flow and a higher invested asset base. There are several factors that impact the variability in investment income, including interest rates and private equity distributions. Nevertheless, we expect our quarterly pre-tax net investment income in 2020 to be in the range of $852 million to $862 million, including the expected amortization of the fair value adjustment on acquired invested assets, at current exchange rates, of approximately $33 million per quarter. Excluding the amortization of the fair value adjustment on acquired invested assets, we expect quarterly pre-tax adjusted net investment income in 2020 to be in the range of $885 million to $895 million. The estimate of amortization expense of the fair value adjustment on acquired invested assets could vary materially based on current market conditions, bond calls, overall duration of the acquired investment portfolio, and foreign exchange.
During 2019, Chubb increased its ownership interest in Huatai Group and is committed to acquire additional interests with the goal of majority and beyond ownership. To that end, Chubb entered into agreements to purchase an additional 22.4 percent ownership in Huatai Group through separate purchases of 15.3 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively, each contingent upon regulatory approvals and other important conditions. At the completion of the 7.1 percent purchase, which is expected by the end of 2021, Chubb is expected to apply consolidation accounting.
the assessment of risk transfer for certain structured insurance and reinsurance contracts;
As an insurance and reinsurance company, we are required by applicable laws and regulations and GAAP to establish loss and loss expense reserves for the estimated unpaid portion of the ultimate liability for losses and loss expenses under the terms of our policies and agreements with our insured and reinsured customers. At December 31, 2019, our gross unpaid loss and loss expense reserves were $62.7 billion and our net unpaid loss and loss expense reserves were $48.5 billion. With the exception of certain structured settlements, for which the timing and amount of future claim payments are reliably determinable, and certain reserves for unsettled claims, our loss reserves are not discounted for the time value of money. In connection with such structured settlements and certain reserves for unsettled claims, we carried net discounted reserves of $74 million and $73 million at December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively.
Case reserves for those claims reported by insureds or ceding companies to us prior to the balance sheet date and where we have sufficient information are determined by our claims personnel as appropriate based on the circumstances of the claim(s), standard claim handling practices, and professional judgment. Furthermore, for our Brandywine run-off operations and our
With respect to IBNR reserves and those claims that have been incurred but not reported prior to the balance sheet date, there is, by definition, limited actual information to form the case reserve estimate and reliance is placed upon historical loss experience and actuarial methods to estimate the ultimate loss obligations and the corresponding amount of IBNR. IBNR reserve estimates are generally calculated by first projecting the ultimate amount of losses for a product line and subtracting paid losses and case reserves for reported claims. The judgments involved in projecting the ultimate losses may pertain to the use and interpretation of various standard actuarial reserving methods that place reliance on the extrapolation of actual historical data, loss development patterns, industry data, and other benchmarks as appropriate. The estimate of the required IBNR reserve also requires judgment by actuaries and management to reflect the impact of more contemporary and subjective factors, both qualitative and quantitative. Among some of these factors that might be considered are changes in business mix or
While we believe that our reserve for unpaid losses and loss expenses at December 31, 2019, is adequate, new information or emerging trends that differ from our assumptions may lead to future development of losses and loss expenses that is significantly greater or less than the recorded reserve, which could have a material effect on future operating results. As noted previously, our best estimate of required loss reserves for most portfolios is judgmentally selected for each origin year after considering the results from a number of reserving methods and is not a purely mechanical process. Therefore, it is difficult to convey, in a simple and quantitative manner, the impact that a change to a single assumption will have on our best estimate. In the examples below, we attempt to give an indication of the potential impact by isolating a single change for a specific reserving method that would be pertinent in establishing the best estimate for the product line described. We consider each of the following sensitivity analyses to represent a reasonably likely deviation in the underlying assumption.
Given the long reporting and paid development patterns for workers' compensation business, the development factors used to project actual current losses to ultimate losses for our current exposure require considerable judgment that could be material to consolidated loss and loss expense reserves. Specifically, adjusting ground up ultimate losses by a one percent change in the tail factor (i.e., 1.04 changed to either 1.05 or 1.03) would cause a change of approximately $823 million, either positive or negative, for the projected net loss and loss expense reserves. This represents an impact of about 8.8 percent relative to recorded net loss and loss expense reserves of approximately $9.4 billion.
At December 31, 2019, net unpaid losses and loss expenses for the Global Reinsurance segment aggregated to $1.4 billion, consisting of $769 million of case reserves and $664 million of IBNR. In comparison, at December 31, 2018, net unpaid losses and loss expenses for the Global Reinsurance segment aggregated to $1.6 billion, consisting of $807 million of case reserves and $807 million of IBNR.
We mitigate the above risks in several ways. In addition to routine analytical reviews of ceding company reports to ensure reported claims information appears reasonable, we perform regular underwriting and claims audits of certain ceding companies to ensure reported claims information is accurate, complete, and timely. As appropriate, audit findings are used to adjust claims
The provision for uncollectible reinsurance is based on a default analysis applied to gross reinsurance recoverables, net of approximately $3.8 billion of collateral at December 31, 2019.
At each balance sheet date, management assesses the need to establish a valuation allowance that reduces deferred tax assets when it is more likely than not that all, or some portion, of the deferred tax assets will not be realized. The determination of the need for a valuation allowance is based on all available information including projections of future taxable income, principally derived from business plans and where appropriate available tax planning strategies. Projections of future taxable income incorporate assumptions of future business and operations that are apt to differ from actual experience. If our assumptions and estimates that resulted in our forecast of future taxable income prove to be incorrect, an additional valuation allowance could become necessary, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations, and liquidity. At December 31, 2019, the valuation allowance of $114 million reflects management's assessment that it is more likely than not that a portion of the deferred tax assets will not be realized due to the inability of certain foreign subsidiaries to generate sufficient taxable income.
We intend to hold these derivative contracts to maturity (i.e., the expiration of the underlying liabilities through lapse, annuitization, death, or expiration of the reinsurance contract). To partially offset the risk of changes in the fair value of GLB reinsurance contracts, we invest in derivative hedge instruments. At maturity, the cumulative realized gains and losses (excluding cumulative hedge gains or losses) from fair value changes of GLB reinsurance contracts will net to zero because, over time, the insurance liability will be increased or decreased to equal our obligation.