Due to business restrictions, stay-at-home orders and travel restrictions initially implemented in March 2020 as a result of COVID-19, unemployment in the United States increased significantly in the second quarter of 2020 and remained elevated at December 31, 2020. As unemployment is one of the most common reasons for borrowers to default on their mortgage, the increase in unemployment has increased the number of delinquencies on the mortgages we insure, and has the potential to increase claim frequencies on defaults. As of December 31, 2020, insured loans in default totaled 31,469 and included 28,922 defaults classified as COVID-19 defaults compared to 5,947 total defaults and no COVID-19 defaults as of December 31, 2019. For borrowers that have the ability to begin to pay their mortgage at the end of the forbearance period, we expect that mortgage servicers will work with them to modify their loans at which time the mortgage will be removed from delinquency status. We believe that the forbearance process could have a favorable effect on the frequency of claims that we ultimately pay. Based on the forbearance programs in place and the credit characteristics of the COVID-19 defaulted loans, we expect the ultimate number of COVID-19-related defaults that result in claims will be less than our historical default-to-claim experience. We applied a lower reserve rate to COVID-19 default notices received in April 2020 through September 2020 than the rate used for defaults that had missed a comparable number of payments as of December 31, 2019 due to the sudden impact on the economy following the onset of the pandemic. The credit characteristics of defaults reported in October 2020 through December 2020
Deferred income tax assets and liabilities are determined using the asset and liability (or balance sheet) method. Under this method, we determine the net deferred tax asset or liability based on the tax effects of the temporary differences between the book and tax bases of the various assets and liabilities and give current recognition to changes in tax rates and laws. Changes in tax laws, rates, regulations and policies, or the final determination of tax audits or examinations, could materially affect our tax estimates. We evaluate the realizability of the deferred tax asset and recognize a valuation allowance if, based on
the weight of all available positive and negative evidence, it is more likely than not that some portion or all of the deferred tax asset will not be realized. When evaluating the realizability of the deferred tax asset, we consider estimates of expected future taxable income, existing and projected book/tax differences, carryback and carryforward periods, tax planning strategies available, and the general and industry specific economic outlook. This realizability analysis is inherently subjective, as it requires management to forecast changes in the mortgage market, as well as the related impact on mortgage insurance, and the competitive and general economic environment in future periods. Changes in the estimate of deferred tax asset realizability, if applicable, are included in income tax expense on the consolidated statements of comprehensive income.
In evaluating our ability to realize the benefit of our deferred tax assets, we consider the relevant impact of all available positive and negative evidence including our past operating results and our forecasts of future taxable income. At December 31, 2020 and 2019, after weighing all the evidence, management concluded that it was more likely than not that our deferred tax assets would be realized.
Under the insurance laws of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, the insurance subsidiaries may pay dividends during any 12-month period in an amount equal to the greater of (i) 10% of the preceding year-end statutory policyholders' surplus or (ii) the preceding year's statutory net income. The Pennsylvania statute also requires that dividends and other distributions be paid out of positive unassigned surplus without prior approval. As of December 31, 2020, Essent Guaranty had unassigned surplus of approximately $343.6 million. Essent PA had unassigned surplus of approximately $15.4 million as of December 31, 2020.