The economic environment since 2008 has had a significant negative impact on the demand by investors for financial guaranty policies, and it is uncertain when or if demand for financial guaranties will return to their pre-economic crisis level. In particular, there was limited new issue activity and also limited demand for financial guaranties in 2013 and 2012 in both the global structured finance and international infrastructure finance markets. In the latter, however, the Company’s three U.K. public-private partnership transactions in the second half of 2013 may signal that demand for capital market infrastructure financings, which have typically required financial guarantees, may be returning. In general, the Company expects that global structured finance and international infrastructure opportunities will increase in the future as the global economy recovers, interest rates rise, more issuers return to the capital markets for financings and institutional investors again utilize financial guaranties.
In 2013, the Company’s key business strategies were comprised of: loss mitigation; new business development; and the development of a strategy to manage capital more efficiently within the Assured Guaranty group.
increased from two to three years the period over which it calculates the initial conditional default rate ("CDR") based on assumed liquidations of non-performing loans and modified loans, to account for the longer period modified loans will take to default,
Net economic loss development in 2011 was $124 million, which was driven primarily by non-U.S. RMBS structured finance and non U.S public finance obligations. In the non U.S. RMBS structured finance portfolio, economic loss development was primarily driven by the decline in risk free rates used to discount expected losses. Loss development in life insurance and film securitizations also contributed to the net loss development, offset in part by positive development in the TruPS portfolio. Economic loss development in the non- U.S. public finance portfolio was comprised mainly of the probability weighted loss estimate on exposures to Greek sovereign debt based on information available at that time. In the U.S. RMBS portfolio, loss development was offset by positive developments in actual and expected recoveries for breaches of R&W. Changes in discount rates had a significant effect on the economic loss development in 2011 as the rates ranged from 0.0% to 3.27% as of December 31, 2011 compared with 0.0% to 5.34% as of December 31, 2010.
Operating income for 2013 increased due primarily to lower losses, offset in part by lower net earned premiums and commutation gains in 2012.
Financing activities consisted primarily of paydowns of FG VIE liabilities. Financing cash flows in 2013, 2012 and 2011 include outflows of $511 million, $724 million and $1,053 million for FG VIEs, respectively.
99.2% of these securities had investment grade ratings based on the lower of Moody’s and S&P.
When a rating agency assigns a public rating to a financial obligation guaranteed by one of AGL’s insurance company subsidiaries, it generally awards that obligation the same rating it has assigned to the financial strength of the AGL subsidiary that provides the guaranty. Investors in products insured by AGL’s insurance company subsidiaries frequently rely on ratings published by nationally recognized statistical rating organizations (“NRSROs”) because such ratings influence the trading value of securities and form the basis for many institutions’ investment guidelines as well as individuals’ bond purchase decisions. Therefore, the Company manages its business with the goal of achieving high financial strength ratings. Currently, the financial strength ratings of the Company's principal insurance company subsidiaries are:
Surveillance personnel are responsible for monitoring and reporting on all transactions in the insured portfolio. The primary objective of the surveillance process is to monitor trends and changes in transaction credit quality, detect any deterioration in credit quality, and recommend to management such remedial actions as may be necessary or appropriate. All transactions in the insured portfolio are assigned internal credit ratings, and surveillance personnel are responsible for recommending adjustments to those ratings to reflect changes in transaction credit quality.
In addition to the amounts shown in the table above, the Company’s net mortgage guaranty insurance in force was approximately $152 million as of December 31, 2013. The net mortgage guaranty insurance in force is assumed excess of loss business and comprises $144 million covering loans originated in Ireland and $8 million covering loans originated in the U.K.
Several European countries continue to experience significant economic, fiscal and/or political strains such that the likelihood of default on obligations with a nexus to those countries may be higher than the Company anticipated when such factors did not exist. The European countries where it believes heightened uncertainties exist are: Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (the “Selected European Countries”). The Company is closely monitoring its exposures in Selected European Countries where it believes heightened uncertainties exist. Published reports have identified countries that may be experiencing reduced demand for their sovereign debt in the current environment. The Company selected these European countries based on these reports and its view that their credit fundamentals are deteriorating. The Company’s economic exposure to the Selected European Countries (based on par for financial guaranty contracts and notional amount for financial guaranty contracts accounted for as derivatives) is shown in the following table, net of ceded reinsurance.
Recent announcements and actions by the Governor and his administration indicate officials of the Commonwealth are focused on measures to help Puerto Rico operate within its financial resources and maintain its access to the capital markets. All Puerto Rico credits insured by the Company are current on their debt service payments, and we expect them to continue to make their debt service payments. Neither Puerto Rico nor its related authorities and public corporations are eligible debtors under Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. However, Puerto Rico faces high debt levels, a declining population and an economy that has been in recession since 2006. Puerto Rico has been operating with a structural budget deficit in recent years, and its two largest pension funds are significantly underfunded.
In January 2014 the Company downgraded most of its insured Puerto Rico credits to BIG, reflecting the economic and financial challenges facing the Commonwealth and due to concerns that the rating agencies would downgrade Puerto Rico and limit its access to credit. Subsequently, in February 2014, S&P, Moody's and Fitch Ratings downgraded much of the debt of Puerto Rico and its related authorities and public corporations to BIG, citing various factors including limited liquidity and market access risk.
Excludes $60 million, $153 million and $75 million for the year ended December 31, 2013, 2012 and 2011, respectively, related to consolidated FG VIEs.
Excludes scheduled net earned premiums on consolidated FG VIEs of $187 million.
The following table presents a roll forward of the present value of net expected loss to be paid for all contracts, whether accounted for as insurance, credit derivatives or FG VIEs, by sector, after the benefit for net expected recoveries for contractual breaches of R&W. The Company used weighted average risk-free rates for U.S. dollar denominated obligations, which ranged from 0.0% to 4.44% as of December 31, 2013 and 0.0% to 3.28% as of December 31, 2012.
The BIG “XXX” life insurance transactions consist of two transactions: Ballantyne Re p.l.c and Orkney Re II p.l.c. These transactions had material amounts of their assets invested in U.S. RMBS transactions. Based on its analysis of the information currently available, including estimates of future investment performance, and projected credit impairments on the invested assets and performance of the blocks of life insurance business at December 31, 2013, the Company’s projected net expected loss to be paid is $73 million. The overall decrease of approximately $66 million in expected loss to be paid during 2013 is due primarily to the purchase of insured notes during the year.
general obligation bonds (which are secured by a pledge of the unlimited tax, full faith, credit and resources of the City and the specific ad valorem taxes approved by the voters solely to pay debt service on the general obligation bonds) and $175 million of the City's Certificates of Participation (which are unsecured unconditional contractual obligations of the City), both of which the Company rates below investment grade. AGM has filed a complaint in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Michigan against the City seeking a declaratory judgment with respect to the City’s unlawful treatment of its Unlimited Tax General Obligation Bonds. Detail about the lawsuit is set forth under "Recovery Litigation -- Public Finance Transactions" below. On December 3, 2013, the Bankruptcy Court ruled that the City is eligible for protection under Chapter 9. On February 21, 2014, the City filed a proposed plan of adjustment and disclosure statement with the Bankruptcy Court.
Stockton. On June 28, 2012, the City of Stockton, California filed for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The Company's net exposure to the City's general fund is $119 million, consisting of pension obligation bonds. The Company also had exposure to lease obligation bonds; as of December 31, 2013, the Company owned all of such bonds and held them in its investment portfolio. As of December 31, 2013, the Company had paid $26 million in net claims. On October 3, 2013, the Company reached a tentative settlement with the City regarding the treatment of the bonds insured by the Company in the City's proposed plan of adjustment. Under the terms of the settlement, the Company received title to an office building, the ground lease of which secures the lease revenue bonds, and will also be entitled to certain fixed payments and certain variable payments contingent on the City's revenue growth. The settlement is subject to a number of conditions, including a sales tax increase (which was approved by voters on November 5, 2013), confirmation of a plan of adjustment that implements the terms of the settlement and definitive documentation. Pursuant to an order of the Bankruptcy Court, the City held a vote of its creditors on its proposed plan of adjustment; all but one of the classes polled voted to accept the plan. The court proceeding to determine whether to confirm the plan of adjustment is expected to begin in May 2014. The Company expects the plan to be confirmed and implemented during 2014.
Credit Suisse: AGM and AGC have sued DLJ Mortgage Capital, Inc. (“DLJ”) and Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (“Credit Suisse”) on first lien U.S. RMBS transactions insured by them. The ones insured by AGM are: CSAB Mortgage-Backed Pass Through Certificates, Series 2006-2; CSAB Mortgage-Backed Pass Through Certificates, Series 2006-3; CSAB Mortgage-Backed Pass Through Certificates, Series 2006-4; and CMSC Mortgage-Backed Pass Through Certificates, Series 2007-3. The ones insured by AGC are: CSAB Mortgage-Backed Pass Through Certificates, Series 2007-1 and TBW Mortgage-Backed Pass Through Certificates, Series 2007-2. Although DLJ and Credit Suisse successfully dismissed certain causes of action and claims for relief asserted in the complaint, the primary causes of action against DLJ for breach of R&W and breach of its repurchase obligations remained. On February 27, 2014 the Appellate Division, First Department unanimously reversed certain aspects of the partial dismissal by the Supreme Court of the State of New York of certain claims for relief by holding as a matter of law that AGM’s and AGC’s remedies for breach of R&W are not limited to the repurchase remedy. On October 21, 2013, AGM and AGC filed an amended complaint against DLJ and Credit Suisse (and added Credit Suisse First Boston Mortgage Securities Corp. as a defendant), asserting claims of fraud and material misrepresentation in the inducement of an insurance contract, in addition to their existing breach of contract claims. The defendants have filed a motion to dismiss certain aspects of the fraud claim against Credit Suisse First Boston Mortgage Securities Corp., and AGM's and AGC's claims for compensatory damages in the form of all claims paid and to be paid by AGM and AGC. The motion to dismiss is currently pending.
In addition, AGM may be required to pay claims in respect of AGMH’s former financial products business if Dexia SA and its affiliates do not comply with their obligations following a downgrade of the financial strength rating of AGM. Most of the guaranteed investment contracts ("GICs") insured by AGM allow for the withdrawal of GIC funds in the event of a
Of the securities in an unrealized loss position for 12 months or more as of December 31, 2013, eleven securities had unrealized losses greater than 10% of book value. The total unrealized loss for these securities as of December 31, 2013 was $52 million. The Company has determined that the unrealized losses recorded as of December 31, 2013 are yield related and not the result of other-than-temporary-impairment.
In addition to assumed and ceded reinsurance arrangements, the Company may also have exposure to some financial guaranty reinsurers (i.e., monolines) in other areas. Second-to-pay insured par outstanding represents transactions the Company has insured that were previously insured by other monolines. The Company underwrites such transactions based on the underlying insured obligation without regard to the primary insurer. Another area of exposure is in the investment portfolio where the Company holds fixed-maturity securities that are wrapped by monolines and whose value may decline based on the
AGMH and/or AGM have received subpoenas duces tecum and interrogatories or civil investigative demands from the Attorneys General of the States of Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Texas and West Virginia relating to their investigations of alleged bid rigging of municipal GICs. AGMH is responding to such requests. AGMH may receive additional inquiries from these or other regulators and expects to provide additional information to such regulators regarding their inquiries in the future. In addition,
The Incentive Plan is administered by a committee of the Board of Directors. The Compensation Committee of the Board serves as this committee except as otherwise determined by the Board. The Board may amend or terminate the Incentive Plan. As of December 31, 2013, 3,189,396 common shares were available for grant under the Incentive Plan.
The Company established the AGL Employee Stock Purchase Plan ("Stock Purchase Plan") in accordance with Internal Revenue Code Section 423, and participation is available to all eligible employees. Maximum annual purchases by participants are limited to the number of whole shares that can be purchased by an amount equal to 10% of the participant's compensation or, if less, shares having a value of $25,000. Participants may purchase shares at a purchase price equal to 85% of the lesser of the fair market value of the stock on the first day or the last day of the subscription period. The Company has reserved for issuance and purchases under the Stock Purchase Plan 600,000 Assured Guaranty Ltd. common shares.
The Company recognized defined contribution expenses of $10 million, $9 million and $10 million for the years ended December 31, 2013, 2012 and 2011, respectively.