Unintended Consequences of Complex Engineered Water Systems: A Case Study in a NW Costa Rican Watershed Introduction and Objectives Field instrumentation network in the Palo Verde wetland - Transfer 1,500 millions m3 /y of water from lake Arenal à double the amount of water - Hydroelectric plant: 12% electricity of Costa Rica - 252 km roads; 255 km canals - 30,000+ ha agricultural area - 155 ha Gish farms (75% Tilapia in the US) - Since 90’s: touristic boom in coastal areas 80’s: Hydroelectric and PRAT project Induced changes in the land use A complex engineered water system with classical environmental degradation and social conflicts Alice Alonso1, Rafael Muñoz-Carpena1, Miguel A. Campo-Bescós2, Greg A. Kiker1, Ray Huffaker1 1 Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida 2 Projects and Rural Engineering Department, Public University of Navarre, Ed. Los Olivos, Pamplona, Spain Contact: alice.alonso@uﬂ.edu Wetland in 1980 Method Data analysis techniques - Dynamic factor analysis - Wavelet analysis - Single spectral analysis - Phase space reconstruction - Convergent cross mapping - Time travel functions à Uncover emerging patterns à Identify causalities à Describe dynamic and mechanisms à Time series reconstruction Data Collection and Preliminary Analysis: Upper and Mid Basin Data Collection: Palo Verde Wetlands Surface water data Discussion and Conclusions • A rich database has been constructed by combining existing long-­‐term weather and hydrological time series and those from an new instrumentation network in PV; • SigniGicant trends have been detected in most of the discharge time series, assuming the existence of external drivers. Classical stochastical hydrological simulations can hence not be performed. • The detected downwards trend in most of the gauged points when the water amount is doubled with the hydroelectricity plant highlights the complexity of the system; • Advanced time series analysis tools (e.g. dynamic factor analysis, wavelet analysis, spectral decomposition, phase space reconstruction, convergent cross mapping) will be applied on the data to uncover emerging patterns, drivers and causal relationship behind the response and degradation of the system; • This will allow the reconstruction of time series, and inform the building of a coupled human-­‐ecohydrological mechanistic model to simulate and predict the impact of human activities on the hydrological signature of the watershed and eventually on the wetlands. Acknowledgement: We would like to give a special thank you to the NSF and the Organization for Tropical Studies, for the data provided and the great collaboration during the implementation of the instrumentation network and the current data recollection. 1 3 4 6 2 5 1 3 6 Source: Daniel (2004)! Conceptual model of the services and functions provided by the basin. Source: Muñoz-Carpena et al. (2013).! Pipe Hydroelectric Plant Nicoya Gulf 1975 1987 2000 Hydrological modeling Links and nodes system based on Hromadka (1983) and Muñoz-­‐Carpena et al. (2004) ( for further incorporation in the Question and Decisions modeling system (QnD) (Kiker et al., 2006)) . Palo Verde wetland in 1980 and 2010 during the wet season, showing the dense cattail invasion (Carolina Murcia).! References Daniels, A.E., 2004. Protected Area Management in the Watershed Context: A case Study of Palo Verde National Park, Costa Rica.! Muñoz-Carpena, R., 2013. WSC-Category 2- Collaborative Research. Deriving resilience within a complex water-subsidized basin: drivers, cascading decisions, and management tradeoffs.! Hromadka, T.V., 1983. Computer methods in urban hydrology: Rational methods and unit hydrograph methods, Lighthouse publication.! Muñoz-Carpena, R. and J. E. Parsons. 2004. A design procedure for vegetative ﬁlter strips using VFSMOD-W. Transactions of the ASAE 47:1933-1941. ! Situated in NW Costa Rica, the Palo Verde wetlands are facing severe degradation, probably as a consequence o