Renewable Energy Generation Expansion Pathways for Cameroon Yvan Ayuketah, Marilyn Bongmo 1 Regional Center for Energy and Environmental Sustainability (RECEES), Ghana. 2 Ministry of Water Resources and Energy, Cameroon 1. Context Contact: Yvan Ayuketah: yvanayuketah@gmail.com ; Marilyn Bongmo:bimewoman1gmail.com 5. Policy insights, conclusions and future work 3. Methods & Scenarios 2. Aim • Cameroon has a population of 25.88 million and GDP of $39.50 billion in 2020 [1]. • The nation aims to reduce its dependence on hydropower and diversify its energy mix. • its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) aim to reduce emissions by 32% in 2035 [3]. • With developmental goals greatly hindered by inadequate power generation, the nation seeks increase thermal generation and renewables to increase its 70% access rate [4]. • Cameroon aim to ensure a 25% share of renewables in the generation mix by 2035. This would also increase energy its security [5]. • The OSeMOSYS, an open-source integrated least-costs energy model was used with clicSAND as the modelling interface. • The key assumptions and data sources were gotten from [4] • Modelling period was from 2020 to 2050 • Three scenarios were developed for Cameroon: (i) The business-as-usual (BAU) • No obligation to meet the energy diversity, RE and other energy sector targets in masterplans such as Vision 2035, the Development Project of the Energy Sector (PDSEN) and the Rural Electrification Master Plan (REMP) [4]. • No constraints on generation system emissions. (ii) NDC scenario • 25% and 45% RE target by 2035 and 2045 respectively • Reduced dependence on hydropower • No constraints on emissions (ii) Net-zero scenario • Zero electricity sector emissions by 2050. • Reduced dependence on hydropower. 4. Results 6. References • To evaluate the least-cost optimal generation expansion pathway up to 2050 for Cameroon under current trends and no policy intervention. • To determine the optimal generation expansion pathway that attains a 25% and 45% renewable energy share by 2035 and 2050 respectively. • To evaluate the optimal generation expansion pathway for Cameroon that achieves net-zero emissions by 2050. Conclusions: • Continuous reliance on Hydropower for over 75% of generation mix in the BAU scenario, • The 25% RE target in the NDC is not enough to reduce dependence on hydropower. However, attaining a 45% target by 2050 significantly reduces this dependence. • Its possible to transition to net-zero in Cameroon due to the small contribution of fossil fuels Policy insights • An intervention is needed to reduce Cameroon’s dependence on hydropower for increased energy security. • Priority and incentives should be allocated to renewables. This would enable them phase out fossil fuels in the generation mix. Future work • Asses the flexibility of power system under higher penetrations of RE. • Investigate the impact on increased RE penetration on the stability an reliability of the power system. • Investigate the impact of carbon pricing and emission trading in the power system. JOINT SUMMER SCHOOL ON MODELLING TOOLS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT | 2022 Figure: The map of Cameroon. Source [4] A Cost-benefit analysis of Policy, Programs and Projects (C3PO) that is Retrievable, Reusable, Repeatable, Reconstructible, Interoperable and Auditable (u4RIA) [1] World Bank, "Cameroon Development Indicators," The World Bank Group, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://data.worldbank.org/country/cameroon. [Accessed 9 June 2022]. [2] MINEPDD, "Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)," 29 July 2016. [3] IEA, "World Energy Outlook 2020," International Energy Agency, Paris , 2020. [4] KEEI, "A Study for Establishment of the Master Plan of Renewable Energy in Cameroon" Korea Energy Economics Institute, Ulsan, 2017. [5] Allington, et al, "Selected ‘Starter Kit’ - Energy system modelling data for Cameroon (#CCG)," Research Square, pp. 1-15, 2021 0 50 100 150 200 250 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021