premise: The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane was one of four known tropical cyclones that have made landfall in New York City. Another, even more intense hurricane in pre-Columbian times (sometime between 1278 and 1438) left evidence that was detected in southern New Jersey by paleotempestological research. The third was the 1893 New York hurricane, and the fourth was Hurricane Irene in 2011.
hypothesis: There were three hurricanes before the  1893 New York hurricane
reason: It was the third hurricane so there could not have been 3 hurricanes before it