Differential Validity, Differential Prediction, and College Admission Testing: A Comprehensive Review and Analysis. Research Report No. 2001-6
Author: Young, John W.
Date: 2001-00-00
Type: Reports - Research
Subjects: College Entrance Examinations,Test Validity,Prediction,Educational Research,Evaluation Research,Racial Differences,Gender Differences,Grade Point Average,Scores,Grades (Scholastic),Predictor Variables,Multiple Regression Analysis,Correlation,Predictive Validity,Minority Group Students,College Students,High School Students,Asian American Students,African American Students,Hispanic American Students,American Indian Students,Research Reports,Literature Reviews

This research report is a review and analysis of all of the published studies during the past 25+ years (since 1974) in the area of differential validity/prediction and college admission testing. More specifically, this report includes 49 separate studies of differences in validity and/or prediction for different racial/ethnic groups and/or for men and women. All of the studies that were reviewed originated as journal articles, book chapters, conference papers, or research/technical reports. The breadth of studies range from single-institution studies based on a single cohort of several hundred students to large-scale compilations of results across hundreds of institutions that included several thousand students in all. The typical research design in these studies used first-year grade point average (FGPA) as the criterion and test scores (usually SAT® scores) and high school grades as predictor variables in a multiple regression analysis. Correlation coefficients were also usually reported as evidence of predictive validity. The main contribution of this report is contained in sections 3 and 4 with a focus on racial/ethnic differences and on sex differences, respectively. With regard to racial/ethnic differences, the minority groups that have been studied include Asian Americans, blacks/African Americans, Hispanics, and Native Americans. Some studies used a combined sample of minority students that was usually composed primarily of African American and Hispanic students. Overall, there was no common pattern to the results for validity and prediction for the different minority groups. Correlations between predictors and criterion were different for each minority group with generally lower values (for both blacks/African Americans and Hispanics) or similar values (for Asian Americans) when compared to whites. Too few studies of Native Americans or of combined samples of minority students are available to reliably determine typical validity coefficients for these groups. In terms of grade prediction, the common finding was one of over-prediction of college grades for all of the minority groups (except for Asian Americans), although the magnitude differed for each group. With Asian American students, studies that employed grade adjustment methods found that under-prediction of grades occurred. With respect to sex differences, the correlations between predictors and criterion were generally higher for women than for men. In terms of prediction, the typical finding in these studies was that women's college grades were under-predicted. However, in the most selective universities, the correlations for men and women appear to be equal, while the degree of under-prediction for women's grades appears to be somewhat less than in other institutions. Compared to earlier research on this topic, sex differences in validity and prediction appear to have persisted, although the magnitude of the differences seems to have lessened. The concluding section of the report provides a summary of the results, states several conclusions that can be drawn from the research reviewed, and postulates a number of different avenues for further research on differential validity/prediction that could yield useful additional information on this important and timely topic. Descriptions of Studies Cited in Sections 3 and 4 are appended. [This report was written with the assistance of Jennifer L. Kobrin. A list of Differential Validity/Prediction Studies Cited in Sections 3 and 4 is included.]