Using Incoming Student Information to Identify Students At-Risk of Not Returning to Their Initial Institution in Year Two. ACT Research Report Series 2017-10
Author: Radunzel, Justine
Date: 2017-00-00
Type: Reports - Research
Subjects: College Entrance Examinations,At Risk Students,College Preparation,Dropouts,College Freshmen,Identification,Student Characteristics,College Transfer Students,Comparative Analysis,High School Graduates,Two Year Colleges,Universities,Academic Achievement,College Attendance,College Housing,Student Employment,Full Time Students,Goal Orientation,Regression (Statistics),Institutional Characteristics,College Readiness,Academic Support Services,Educational Attainment,School Holding Power,Student Attrition

As pushes for increased accountability in higher education continue, postsecondary institutions are interested in identifying early on students who are at-risk of leaving their institution. With this in mind, this study sought to identify incoming first-year student information (such as that available on the ACT student record) that postsecondary institutions might use for determining students who are at-risk of leaving their institution in year two. Specifically, student characteristics were examined in relation to two types of attrition for the institution--students dropping out of college and students transferring to another institution--in comparison to students returning in year two. Data were available for more than 630,000 ACT-tested 2014 high school graduates who enrolled in college in fall 2014 at nearly 1,150 two- and four-year institutions. Initial and subsequent enrollment was tracked using National Student Clearinghouse data. Data on student-level characteristics included academic preparation and achievement measures; intentions about living on campus, enrolling full-time, and working while in college; educational goals; the number of college preferences met by the initial institution; the distance between home and initial institution attended; and demographic characteristics such as gender, race/ethnicity, and parents' education level. Students' college intentions, college preference matches, and distance from home were included in the study as possible proxies for barriers to social and academic integration at the initial institution attended. Hierarchical multinomial regression models accounting for institution attended were used to evaluate predictors of dropout and transfer. Results were examined by type of institution. Study findings suggest that multiple academic and non-academic factors are useful for predicting student attrition. First, at both two- and four-year institutions, students who were less academically prepared for college were more likely to drop out of college than those who were better prepared. Academic readiness was also negatively related to transfer at four-year institutions but was somewhat positively related to transfer at two-year institutions. College intentions also played a role in identifying who was likely to leave their initial institution. For example, students who indicated that they planned to work more hours while in college were more likely to drop out of college than those intending to work fewer hours. Additionally, the fewer the number of college preferences met by the initial institution attended the more likely a student was to drop out or transfer to another institution. Attending an institution farther away from home was also associated with higher transfer rates. Unfortunately, even after statistically controlling for academic measures and other student characteristics, students from certain underserved demographic groups (e.g., first-generation students and economically disadvantaged students) continued to be somewhat more likely than their peers to drop out. In secondary analyses among transfer students, we found that the type of institution transferred to in year two also varied by these same student characteristics. For example, for students beginning at a four-year institution, higher achievement levels were associated with lower chances of transferring to a two-year institution instead of to another four-year institution. Students beginning at a two-year institution were more likely to transfer to a four-year institution instead of to another two-year institution if they had higher achievement levels. Study findings illustrate how institutions can use incoming student information from the ACT record to help identify students who are at-risk of leaving their institution, allowing for the opportunity to intervene early with these students. The ACT student record contains additional data elements beyond those examined in this study that can help institutions build multidimensional models of student success in order to better identify students who might benefit from additional academic and student support services upon entering college.