The Class of 2014: The Weak Economy Is Idling Too Many Young Graduates. EPI Briefing Paper #377
Author: Shierholz, Heidi
Date: 2014-05-01
Type: Reports - Evaluative
Subjects: College Graduates,Labor Market,Economic Climate,High School Graduates,Educational Attainment,Unemployment,Underemployment,Racial Differences,Ethnicity,Employment Level,Retirement Benefits,Health Insurance,Costs,Higher Education,Income,Student Loan Programs,Supply and Demand,Wages,Gender Differences

The Great Recession officially ended in June 2009. However, the labor market has made agonizingly slow progress toward a full recovery, and the slack that remains continues to be devastating for workers of all ages. The weak labor market has been, and continues to be, very tough on young workers. Though the labor market is headed in the right direction, it is improving very slowly, and the job prospects for young high school and college graduates remain dim. A key finding of this paper is that there is little evidence that young adults have been able to &quot;shelter in school&quot; from the labor market effects of the Great Recession. This briefing paper examines the labor market that confronts young graduates who are not enrolled in further schooling--specifically, high school graduates age 17-20 and college graduates age 21-24--in an attempt to focus as closely as possible on the labor market outcomes of those who are starting their careers. Key findings include: (1) Unemployment of young graduates is extremely high today because young workers &quot;always&quot; experience disproportionate increases in unemployment during periods of labor market weakness--and the Great Recession and its aftermath is the longest, most severe period of economic weakness in more than seven decades; (2) In today's labor market, there are nearly 1 million &quot;missing&quot; young workers; (3) Unemployment and underemployment rates among young graduates are improving but remain substantially higher than before the recession began; (4) Overall unemployment rates of young graduates mask substantial disparities in unemployment by race and ethnicity; (5) The large increases since 2007 in the unemployment and underemployment rates of young college graduates, and in the share of employed young college graduates working in jobs that do not require a college degree, underscore that the current unemployment crisis among young workers did not arise because today's young adults lack the right education or skills; (6) The long-run wage trends for young graduates are bleak, with wages substantially lower today than in 2000; (7) The erosion of job quality for young graduates is also evident in their declining likelihood of receiving employer-provided health insurance or pensions; (8) Graduating in a bad economy has long-lasting economic consequences; (9) The cost of higher education has grown far more rapidly than median family income, leaving students with little choice but to take out loans; and (10) Because the scarcity of job opportunities for the Class of 2014 is a symptom of weak demand for workers more broadly, what will bring down young workers' unemployment rates most quickly and effectively are policies that will generate strong job growth overall. Tables and figures are appended.