Early Warning Indicators and Segmentation Analysis: A Technical Guide on Data Studies That Inform Dropout Prevention and Recovery
Author: Jobs for the Future
Date: 2014-02-00
Type: Reports - Research
Subjects: Dropouts,Dropout Prevention,High School Students,Graduation Rate,At Risk Students,Intervention,Data Collection,School Districts,Data Analysis,Program Development,Prediction,Goal Orientation,Professional Development,Cohort Analysis,Student Characteristics,Academic Achievement,Enrollment,Attendance,Suspension,Expulsion,Racial Differences,Ethnicity,Socioeconomic Status,Special Education,English Language Learners,Gender Differences

Nationally, more than one million youth drop out of high school each year. One in four young people do not graduate with their age mates. Thus, in recent years, national leaders have directed sustained attention to what they term the &quot;dropout crisis,&quot; particularly in high schools that are graduating less than two-thirds of their students. The U.S. Department of Education has responded by requiring more transparency about graduation rates and providing unprecedented support to address this crisis through programs such as School Improvement Grants and the High School Graduation Initiative. Along with early warning indicators, another important type of data study is segmentation analysis. This study involves looking at data on current high school students who are significantly off track for graduation and using that information to plan appropriate recovery programming for specific groups of students (e.g., those far off track to graduation but still in school). While early warning indicators focus on dropout prevention, segmentation studies help districts assess the numbers of youth who are off track for graduation (and by how much) and inform the growth of appropriate recovery programming. This technical resource guide leads school districts and their staff (at both administrative and school levels) through the technical steps involved in establishing an early warning system and conducting a segmentation study. The guide is organized into the following sections: (1) Section 1 provides basic background on early warning systems for staff at all levels, the research behind these systems, their uses, and the reasons why a school district would set their development as a key goal for its staff and schools; (2) Section 2 is intended primarily for a school district's department of research, assessment, and evaluation. It specifies the type of data needed to establish an early warning system, as well as the simple descriptive ways to analyze the data to determine a set of early warning indicators; (3) Section 3 discusses the types of reporting that are essential to an early warning system. It provides detail on how district-level data can be captured in user-friendly reports for school-level staff who work directly with students. This section is particularly intended for use by the district's technology and information department that generates the reports electronically from databases; (4) Section 4 provides practical examples from school districts that developed and implemented early warning systems. It also suggests some solutions to the most common roadblocks that districts encounter at each stage of developing an early warning system; (5) Section 5 walks districts through the rationale for and steps to conduct a segmentation study; and (6) Appendix A provides some information on additional resources that can help to guide a district with the steps needed to develop an early warning system, first ensuring effective use of information at the school level and then organizing staff and services to fashion a system of effective interventions. Additional resources listed here provide guidance on achieving staff buy-in, providing professional development, building an intervention team and selecting appropriate interventions for identified students. This information is relevant for both district-office and school-based staff. (A bibliography is included.)