Validity of the SAT® for Predicting Fourth-Year Grades: 2006 SAT Validity Sample. Statistical Report 2011-7
Author: Mattern, Krista D.
Date: 2006-00-00
Type: Reports - Evaluative
Subjects: College Entrance Examinations,Test Validity,Prediction,Grades (Scholastic),College Seniors,Predictor Variables,Grade Point Average,Correlation,Institutional Characteristics,School Size,Selective Admission,Student Characteristics,Gender Differences,Racial Differences,Ethnic Groups,Language Usage,Family Income,Parent Background,Educational Attainment,High School Students,Critical Reading,Reading Skills,Mathematics Skills,Writing Skills

The College Board formed a research consortium with four-year colleges and universities to build a national higher education database with the primary goal of validating the SAT®, which is used in college admission and consists of three sections: critical reading (SAT-CR), mathematics (SAT-M) and writing (SAT-W). This report builds on a body of evidence that confirms that SAT scores are predictive of multiple indicators of college performance (e.g., first-year grade point average [Kobrin, Patterson, Shaw, Mattern, &amp; Barbuti, 2008; Mattern, Patterson, Shaw, Kobrin, &amp; Barbuti, 2008; Patterson, Mattern, &amp; Kobrin, 2009; Patterson &amp; Mattern, 2011]; retention to the second year [Mattern &amp; Patterson, 2009]; second-year grades (Mattern &amp; Patterson, 2011b), retention to the third year [Mattern &amp; Patterson, 2011a]; and third-year grades[Mattern &amp; Patterson, 2011c]) by demonstrating a strong link between SAT scores and grades earned through the fourth year of college This report presents the validity of the SAT for predicting two fourth-year college outcomes: (1) fourth-year cumulative GPA (4th Yr Cum GPA), and (2) fourth-year grade point average (4th Yr GPA). Grade point average (GPA) for a given year is defined as the average of course grades earned just in that year. Cumulative grade point average (Cum GPA) for a given year is defined as the average of course grades earned at any time from the first year through the year in question. Thus 4th Yr GPA is the average of course grades in just the fourth year, while 4th Yr Cum GPA is the average of course grades in the first through fourth years. Similar to the results for first-, second-, and third-year outcomes, the study found that the SAT is strongly correlated with 4th Yr Cum GPA and 4th Yr GPA for the total sample. The correlations remain strong even when controlling for institutional characteristics (control, selectivity, size) and student characteristics (gender, race/ethnicity, best language, household income, highest parental education). Results are based on nearly 60,000 students across 55 institutions. The following tables are appended: (1) Institutions Providing Fourth-Year Outcomes Data for the 2006 Cohort; (2) Raw Correlations of SAT and HSGPA with 4th Yr Cum GPA by Institutional Characteristics; (3) Raw Correlation of SAT Scores and HSGPA with 4th Yr Cum GPA by Student Characteristics; (4) Raw Correlations of SAT and HSGPA with 4th Yr GPA by Institutional Characteristics; and (5) Raw Correlation of SAT Scores and HSGPA with 4th Yr GPA by Student Characteristics.