Why Did so Many Public Schools Stay Remote during the COVID Crisis? Policy Brief
Author: Harris, Douglas N.
Date: 2021-07-12
Type: Reports - Research
Subjects: COVID-19,Pandemics,School Closing,In Person Learning,Political Influences,Decision Making,Demography,Socioeconomic Status,Health,Poverty,Racial Differences,Ethnicity,School Districts,Distance Education,At Risk Persons,Unions,Internet,Expenditures,Charter Schools,Private Schools,Public Schools,Predictor Variables

COVID-19 has become one of the greatest health crises ever to face the United States. Among other broad social and economic effects, the pandemic led to the closure of almost all schools to in-person instruction in spring 2020. Heated controversies emerged about whether to reopen schools in person in fall 2020, and the debate around reopening continues today. In this brief, we extend our earlier work on the initial months of the COVID outbreak and describe the patterns of school reopening during fall 2020 and spring 2021. What predicted whether schools opened in person, hybrid, or remote, and what does this tell us about the underlying reasons behind education leaders' decisions? Previous studies have concluded that political factors were the most important predictors of school reopening, more so than public health. We also find that political factors were key, but there is substantial evidence that they were not the only, or perhaps even the main, factors involved. We examine how a wide variety of community and school district characteristics may have affected the likelihood of schools reopening using a method called regression analysis. Examining reopening decisions in fall 2020, we find the following: (1) School reopening decisions were likely based on many interrelated factors, so understanding them is more challenging than it seems at first glance. Political affiliations are closely correlated with demographics, socioeconomic status, and health. These factors are so intertwined that separating cause and effect can be difficult; (2) Demographics--especially race and poverty--strongly predicted fall 2020 school reopenings. Specifically, school districts with more Black and Hispanic residents were more likely to have remote instruction. Other things being equal, districts with more people living in poverty were also more likely to have remote instruction; (3) Health considerations also predicted school reopening decisions. We find some evidence that communities with higher COVID positivity rates were more likely to have remote instruction. The strong role for demographics mentioned above is likely related to health factors, as Black and Hispanic people have faced greater COVID health risks; (4) Political factors were also important. Consistent with other studies, we find that a higher Democratic vote share was associated with more remote instruction. We also find some evidence that union power predicted more remote instruction, but to a much lesser extent than the Democratic vote share; and (5) Most other factors we examined did not consistently predict school re-openings. Higher broadband access sometimes predicted more remote schooling, but instructional spending, charter school enrollment, and private school enrollment did not consistently predict school reopening. The results are generally similar for fall 2020 and spring 2021 except that political factors and health considerations played a smaller role than in the fall. While the COVID crisis may be diminishing and schools are likely to be operating almost entirely in person this coming fall, the lessons learned from recent events will shape policies in public education for years to come. Especially in our politically polarized world, it is important not to over-state the role that politics played in these important decisions. Politics mattered, but probably no more than demographic and health factors.