Year 12 Completion and Youth Transitions. Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth. Research Report 56
Author: Ryan, Chris
Date: 2011-00-00
Type: Reports - Evaluative
Subjects: High School Graduates,Vocational Education,Employment,Education Work Relationship,Educational Attainment,Dropouts,Gender Differences,Outcomes of Education,Student Attrition,Foreign Countries,Longitudinal Studies

On average, young people who complete Year 12 tend to have more successful transitions from education to work than those who do not. Hence everyone has seen numerous governments introduce policies that promote Year 12 completion. However, in recent years there has been a realisation that it does not make much sense to promote Year 12 retention for its own sake. No longer are targets expressed in terms of the numbers completing Year 12; now the targets are in terms of Year 12 or its equivalent. While this policy trend makes good sense, is it going to have the desired outcomes? The aim of this study is to answer this question by looking at data from the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY). The author employs a range of econometric techniques to account for these difficulties, focusing on those who do not complete Year 12 and continue on to further full-time tertiary education study. He defines a set of education pathways according to whether the individual is an early school leaver or not and whether the individual undertakes further education and training (including apprenticeships and traineeships). He also rates success through a number of outcomes; these include a number of labour market and study variables over the transition years. Key messages of this study include: (1) For males, Year 12 completion provides a better transition relative to other pathways, the exception being an apprenticeship. However, the superiority of an apprenticeship is conditional on obtaining one. Obtaining the type of certificate II or III available to young people in these data was not as effective on average as completing Year 12; (2) For females, completing Year 12 clearly provides the best outcomes, followed by the completion of a traineeship, and the completion of an apprenticeship (female apprentices tend to be either hairdressers or cooks). Of the other pathways, completing a certificate III is the best and completing a certificate II the worst; and (3) Sample attrition does not materially affect the analysis. The following appendix tables are included: (1) Estimated Year 12 completion effects: least squares estimates, Y95 and Y98 (separate regressions for each cohort); (2) Estimated Year 12 and VET qualification completion equation results; (3) Estimated Year 12 completion effects: reweighted estimates; (4) Estimated Year 12 completion effects: propensity-score-matching estimates; (5) Full regression estimates: full-time employment and hourly wages; and (6) Estimated Year 12 completion effects: reweighted estimates adjusting for attrition, late respondents. (Contains 15 tables, 4 figures and 9 footnotes.) [For the research overview, &quot;Year 12 Completion and Youth Transitions: Research Overview. Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth. Research Report 56,&quot; see ED521305.]