Projecting the Need for California School Administrators over 2010/11-2017/18: The Effects of Projected Retirement and Projected Changes in Student Enrollment over Two-Year Increments. REL Technical Brief. REL 2011-No. 016
Author: Fong, Anthony B.
Date: 2011-02-00
Type: Reports - Research
Subjects: Principals,Personnel Needs,Public Schools,Retirement,Enrollment Projections,Regional Characteristics,Differences

This technical brief projects the need for new school-site administrators (principals and vice-principals) in California by region in two-year increments over 2010/11-2017/18. It builds on an earlier Regional Educational Laboratory West report that projected the aggregate need for school administrators over 2008/09-2017/18 based on projected retirement and projected changes in student enrollment (White, Fong, and Makkonen 2010). Both studies divide the state into 11 regions, and both report projected demand for local administrators as a change from the 2007/08 baseline workforce. By disaggregating the study period into two-year increments, this brief provides more specific data for education organizations--particularly the Association of California School Administrators and the California County Superintendents Educational Services Association--to more accurately target workforce planning and training programs for new school-site administrators. This technical brief addresses three research questions: (1) By region, what percentage of 2007/08 school-site administrators are projected to retire in each two-year period over 2010/11-2017/18?; (2) By region, how many new school-site administrators (as a percentage of the 2007/08 school-site administrator workforce) will be needed to offset projected changes in student enrollment for each two-year period over 2010/11-2017/18?; and (3) By region, how many new school-site administrators (as a percentage of the 2007/08 school-site administrator workforce) will be needed due to the combination of projected retirement and projected changes in student enrollment for each two-year period over 2010/11-2017/18? Key findings include: (1) The Central Coast region has the highest projected administrator retirement rates over the four two-year periods in the study; for each two-year period, either Inland Empire or South San Joaquin Central Valley is projected to have the lowest. Inland Empire's retirement rate is projected to remain at 4.7-4.8 per from 2010/11-2011/12 to 2016/17-2017/18; all other regions are expected to trend downward; (2) Due to projected student enrollment growth, and assuming no change in ratios of students to administrators, many regions are expected to face an increasing need for administrators in each two-year period. Inland Empire is expected to have the most enrollment-driven growth compared with its 2007/08 school-site administrator workforce; South Coast is expected to need fewer administrators based on enrollment patterns; and (3) The Bay Area is the only region in which combined retirement- and student enrollment-driven demand for school-site administrators is projected to fall over time. In all other regions, the need is expected to grow--particularly in Inland Empire, which can expect to need 42.2 percent more administrators over 2010/11-2017/18 than in 2007/08. South Coast is expected to have, overall, the state's lowest projected need (17.4 percent). Across regions, more combined need for school-site administrators is projected for the second half of the study period (2014/15-2017/18); however, data for those years are subject to greater error because long-term projections are less certain. For the first two-year period (2010/11-2011/12), 9 of 11 regions are projected to need to add 7.2-9.1 percent of their 2007/08 school-site administrator workforce due to retirement and changes in student enrollment. Appendices include: (1) Methods; and (2) County-level results. (Contains 1 box, 1 map, 3 figures, 8 tables and 5 notes.)