## 3 Results and Discussion
This EQ has been shown to result in a variability minimum when studying the seismicity in a wider area, i.e., that of the eastern Mediterranean [136], in conjunction with EQ networks based on similar activity patterns [137]. The exact details of the corresponding variability minimum can be found in Table 3 and Figure 4b of [136]. The statistical significance and the predictive ability of the precursory \(\beta_{W}\) minima have been discussed in detail in Sections 1.5.2, 12.13.1 and 12.13.2 of [38] by employing receiver operating characteristics [138] as well as event coincidence analysis [139,140]. For EQs of magnitude \(M<7.0\), NTA has to be combined with the preseismic information carried by SES, see, e.g., [23,44,55,56], in order to provide an improved estimation of the occurrence time of the impending EQ. The fact that this critical process is of a truly precursory nature is also strengthened because the behavior of the DFA exponent \(a_{300}\) is compatible with that previously found inJapan [134] (see their Figures 3-8), Mexico [75] (see their Figure 3), and California [76] (see their Figure 3). In Figure 4e, we observe that during the period when the minimum was observed, values of \(a_{300}\) well above 0.5 appear, pointing to long-range correlations (cf. on 15 September 2022 \(a_{300}=0.62\)), while later and just before the Kahramanmaras, Turkey, EQ doublet, \(a_{300}\) fluctuates around 0.5, indicating a breakdown of the correlations to a random behavior (cf. on 19 January 2022 \(a_{300}=0.46\)). Figure 4: The variabilities \(\beta_{W}\) (left scale) for \(W=300\) (blue), 250 (cyan), 200 (green), 150 (orange), and 100 (red), versus the conventional time since 1 January 2002 until the Kahramanmaras, Turkey, EQ doublet. Panels (**a**–**e**) correspond to consecutive time periods. The brown plus symbols depict the values of the DFA exponent \(a_{300}\) (left scale) estimated within a moving window of 300 consecutive EQs; see Section 2.5. The brown horizontal line corresponds to \(a_{300}=0.5\). The blue and green horizontal lines correspond to \(\beta_{300,min}\) and \(\beta_{200,min}\), respectively, that border the \(\beta_{W,min}\) for \(W=300\), 250, 200, 150, and 100 observed during the period 14 August 2022 to 18 October 2022 before the Kahramanmaras-Gaziantep \(M_{\rm w}\)7.8 Pazarcik EQ; see panel (**e**). The EQs reported by AFAD are shown with the black candlesticks ending at circles, the magnitude \(M\) of which can be read using the right scale. The observation of a precursory variability minimum is expected [48; 51; 75; 76; 99] to be accompanied by the initiation of an SES activity. The occurrence time of the impending EQ can be estimated by analyzing the seismicity in the area probable to suffering from strong EQs in order to identify the fulfillment of the five criteria mentioned in Section 2.3. In the present case of the Kahramanmaras-Gaziantep \(M_{w}\)7.8 Pazarcik EQ, however, no SES data were available, since a Varotsos-Alexopoulos-Nomicos (VAN) telemetric network [23; 40; 41; 42; 43] does not operate in Turkey [53]. Thus, such an estimation of the area to suffer from strong EQs by means of SES is missing. To overcome this difficulty and in order to examine whether seismicity has reached criticality in the epicentral region, we decided--in this a posteriori study--to investigate the seismicity after 18 October 2022 within a \(3^{\circ}\times 3^{\circ}\) area centered at the actual epicenter of the Kahramanmaras-Gaziantep \(M_{w}\)7.8 Pazarcik EQ. An NTA of seismicity was made for various magnitude thresholds \(M_{thres}=2.0\), \(2.1\), \(\ldots 3.2\) and the five criteria of Section 2.3 were found to be obeyed in all the 13 cases examined, while for eight of them, the date of true coincidence was observed from 17 to 21 January 2023, i.e., almost two weeks before the Kahramanmaras, Turkey, EQ doublet.