## 2 Methods
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Construct** & **Description** & **Reason** & **Source** & **Source** \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{Cases} & Number of people diagnosed & \multirow{4}{*}{Target Variable} & The New York Times, & \multirow{4}{*}{[37; 38]} \\  & with COVID-19 undergoing & & & \\  & treatment & & & Project \\ \hline \multirow{3}{*}{LEX In-State} & Location of cell/mobile & \multirow{3}{*}{Tracking physical movement of population} & \multirow{3}{*}{SafeGraph} & [39] \\  & phone within state of residence & & & \\ \hline \multirow{3}{*}{LEX Out-State} & Location of cell/mobile & \multirow{3}{*}{Tracking physical movement of population} & \multirow{3}{*}{SafeGraph} & [39] \\  & phone outside state of residence & & & \\ \hline \multirow{3}{*}{Non-home dwell-time} & Average Minutes (median) & \multirow{3}{*}{Physical exposure to others} & \multirow{3}{*}{SafeGraph} & [39] \\  & spent outside one’s own & & & \\ \hline \multirow{3}{*}{Health Rank} & Overall health of state & Health of Population influences & \multirow{3}{*}{America’s Health Rankings} & \multirow{3}{*}{[40]} \\  & population based on the & & Perceived Risk of Infection & \\ \cline{1-1} \cline{4-4}  & World Health Organization & \multirow{3}{*}{to/from Others, Behavioral choices} & \multirow{3}{*}{Rankings} & \\ \cline{1-1} \cline{4-4}  & definition of health. & & & \\ \hline \multirow{3}{*}{Climate Temperature} & \multirow{3}{*}{Climate Temperature based on Spring 2020} & Physical exposure from the & \multirow{3}{*}{Wikipedia} & \multirow{3}{*}{[41]} \\  & climate Temperature based & tendency to use public spaces in & & \\ \cline{1-1} \cline{4-4}  & on Spring 2020 & high, moderate, or low & & \\ \cline{1-1} \cline{4-4}  & & temperatures & & \\ \hline \multirow{3}{*}{Political Color} & States designated as Liberal & \multirow{3}{*}{Political Color expected to indicate state governor’s policies toward business closures and stay-at-home orders} & \multirow{3}{*}{The Cook Political Report} & \multirow{3}{*}{[42]} \\  & & & & \\ \cline{1-1} \cline{4-4}  & Population divided by & \multirow{3}{*}{Closer physical proximity will tend to increase the virus spread.} & \multirow{3}{*}{Wikipedia} & \multirow{3}{*}{[41]} \\ \cline{1-1} \cline{4-4}  & Density & & & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 1: Variables of Interest. Pennsylvanania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, and North Carolina [42]. Since the Blue states were infected early, we expect them to be strongly impacted by lockdown relatively quickly. Conversely, we expect Red states, which were hit later and less severely, to be slow to impose shutdowns. We expect Purple states to be caught in the middle: impacted severely, but slow to impose shutdowns, and therefore to have the most cases. We include GPS phone tracking data to monitor the mobility of individuals in both regimes. Location Exposure Index (LEX) was obtained through the de-identified state-level aggregation of phone data. This is based on PlacelQ data [43]. LEX is based on signals (\"pings\") obtained from smartphones responding to other smartphones or applications. LEX gives the proportion of pings received from another device or application in a different venue in the most recent 14 days. The residence of a smartphone is determined empirically from finding its presence between 5 p.m. and 9 a.m. Smartphones that do not leave their residence do not get pinged. We define LEX-In-State on a given day as the proportion of phones residing in a state that leave their home but have not been pinged in any other state over the last 14 days. LEX-Out-State on a given day is the proportion of phones residing in a state that leave their home and have been pinged in a different state over the last 14 days. LEX-Out-State gives us the tendency of people who leave their own state of residence and encounter other people. We define LEX-Total to be the sum of LEX-In-State and LEX-Out-State. Non-home-dwell-time is the median time outside the home in minutes for all devices in the home during the time period.