## 4 Results
### Initial Simulation Analysis  
The initial simulation results are shown in Figure 6. Both supply and demand factors influence the TGC price. The TGC price remained stable at 30 yuan/sheet for 45 months in the initial stage. With the continuous increase in renewable electricity capacity installed, the TGC demand rapidly rises, leading to a sharp increase in TGC prices to 100 yuan/sheet. The CET price is influenced by both supply and consumption, showing a gentle upward trend and ultimately stabilizing at around 0.2 yuan/kg. The electricity sale price shows a trend of first rising and then falling. In the initial stage, due to the increasing demand for electricity in Liaoning Province and the shortage of renewable generation equipment, the electricity sale price gradually increased from 0.49 yuan/KWh to 0.6 yuan/KWh. However, with the increase in installed capacity of renewable energy power generation and the popularization and application of power generation technology, the cost of electricity production gradually decreases, and the electricity sale price begins to fall, ultimately  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c} \hline \hline
**Year** & **Simulation Value (10\({}^{8}\) KWh)** & **Actual Value (10\({}^{8}\) KWh)** & **Error (\%)** \\ \hline
2020 & 2691.7 & 2520.1 & 6.38\% \\
2021 & 2745.8 & 2673.7 & 2.63\% \\
2022 & 2726.1 & 2659.2 & 2.45\% \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 2: Comparison of simulated values with actual values.  
stabilizing at 0.32 yuan/KWh. To ensure the rigor of the research results on key price indicators, error analysis is conducted by calculating the confidence intervals of TGC price, CET price, and sales electricity price simulation data. This study will estimate the confidence intervals of three indicators separately from the stationary and fluctuating stages to avoid mixing the statistical characteristics of different stages. The calculation results are shown in Table 3. Calculating the 95% confidence interval helps better understand the optimal numerical ranges for TGC price, CET price, and electricity sale price.  
The carbon emissions initially showed an upward trend, mainly due to fossil fuels still being the primary source of power generation. However, as the proportion of clean energy applications increases, the trend of carbon emissions growth gradually slows down and stabilizes at the end of the research period. The analysis of installed power generation capacity shows that due to technological and cost constraints, renewable energy generation equipment cannot completely replace fossil fuel generation equipment in the short term. Therefore, the new installed capacity of fossil fuel power generation continued to show a stable upward trend from 0 to 60 months. However, with the development, application, and popularization of renewable energy generation technology, the new installed  
Figure 6: Initial simulation result analysis diagrams. (**a**) TGC price, (**b**) CET price, (**c**) Electricity sale price, (**d**) Carbon emissions, (**e**) New installed capacity of fossil fuel power generation, (**f**) New installed capacity of renewable energy power generation.  
capacity of fossil fuel power generation began to decline significantly between 60 and 120 months. Meanwhile, driven by policy incentives and economic development, the new installed capacity of renewable energy power generation has shown a sustained and stable growth trend.