# The Perpetual Vector Mosquito Threat and Its Eco-Friendly Nemeses
## 2 The Expanding Mosquito Range, Climate Change, and Computational Modeling  
The few examples noted above clearly demonstrate that the occurrence and proliferation of classic vector-borne tropical diseases in regions where they are normally not problematic cannot be underestimated. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it is now estimated that more than 50% of all known infectious diseases in humans are exacerbated by climate change, in which the increasing temperature expands the lateral and elevated ranges and habitats of a wide variety of arthropod vectors [29; 30; 31; 32; 33; 34; 35]. The reasons for the prevalence of mosquito-borne malaria, dengue, and the reemergence and outbreaks of chikungunya, Zika, and West Nile fevers are complex and compounded by environmental drivers, including climate change and dynamic population flow facilitated by mass migration, travel, and trade from endemic to non-endemic regions [36; 37; 38; 39; 40]. Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather patterns and temperature. It is primarily caused by human activities that generate greenhouse gasses. The environmental accumulation of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gasses has increased exponentially since the preindustrial period as a direct result of human activities [41]. Changes in climatic conditions, especially increases in temperature and humidity, are known to influence the life cycle of vectors and pathogens, directly and indirectly, by altering their fecundity, the pathogen development in the host, transmission rates, and prolonging transmission seasons [39; 42]. For example, infection and dissemination rates of West Nile virus in _Culex. p. quinquetesciatus_ (Linnaeus) increase at elevated temperatures [43], and the rearing of _Aedes albopictus_ (Skuse) at low temperatures (20 \({}^{\circ}\)C) decreases these rates by 21% [44]. Computational modeling based on the biological properties of disease-carrying vectors and their changing habitats and known and predictive adaptations to weather patterns, among other factors, have increased markedly over the past two decades. Using a mosquito model system, [PERSON] et al. [45] employed evolutionary rescue theory [46; 47] to support the view that the short mosquito generation time, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection each favor thermal adaptation. Moreover, when compared to 2021 levels, the model predicted that to maintain a similar level of dengue transmission under the constraint of theoretical 2080 temperatures, the critical thermal maximum for _Aedes aegypti_ (Linnaeus) fecundity would need to increase by an average of 1.57 \({}^{\circ}\)C (0.03 \({}^{\circ}\)C/year). Evidence supporting the theory that increasing temperature expands the lateral and vertical geographic dispersion of mosquitoes was documented by [PERSON] et al. [48]. The authors analyzed data on the range limits of _Anopheles_ species, vectors that transmit malarial parasites, and the O'nyong-nyong virus that causes fever and polyarthritis [49], collected by medical entomologists over a period of ~120 years (1898-2016). The study represents the largest reliable survey recorded for any formidable vector of human disease. Interestingly, using a regression approach, it appears that these arboviral and parasite vectors gained an average elevation and southward shift of 6.5 m and 4.7 km per year, respectively [48], coinciding with the current 1.2 \({}^{\circ}\)C increase in temperature relative to the pre-industrial period [50]. Theoretical models have also been developed to assess the daily abundance of _Aedes aegypti_ and _Aedes albopictus_, the Asian tiger mosquito, based on surveillance data collected at various locations in Europe and the Americas between 2007 and 2018 to quantify the propagation and prevalence of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses [51].