## 3 Results
### Impact of Future Meteorological Factors on NDVI  
To further decompose the influence of different meteorological elements on NDVI, an analysis was conducted on the changes in NDVI and the contributions of meteorological factors across China from 2023 to 2100 under four SSP scenarios. Six key meteorological factors were identified: RH, SWR, SWVL1, T2m, TP, and CO\({}_{2}\). The impact of these meteorological factors on vegetation cover change varies across the different SSP scenarios, as illustrated in Figure 7. Overall, RH, TP, and T2m are the primary factors influencing vegetation growth. Specifically, the average contribution rates of each factor across all scenarios are as follows: RH (\(-\)0.0306), SWR (0.00034), SWVL1 (\(-\)0.17313), T2m (\(-\)0.09306), and TP (0.01112). The results indicate that changes in RH and SWVL1 have a negative impact on vegetation growth, particularly in regions with low soil moisture, where plant  
Figure 6: Spatial distribution of NDVI changes in China from 2023 to 2100 under four SSP scenarios: panels (**a–d**) represent the NDVI of China in 2100 under the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. growth is significantly constrained. Conversely, variations in T2m and TP exert relatively positive effects on vegetation growth. The contribution of SWR is minor but still affects NDVI changes. The influence of CO2 is complex and varies across scenarios. Under SSP126 and SSP245, the negative contribution rate of RH suggests that lower RH in these climate change scenarios may lead to decreased NDVI. In the SSP370 scenario, the positive contribution rate of RH indicates that increased RH benefits vegetation growth, thereby raising NDVI. Overall, higher warming scenarios (SSP370 and SSP585) are typically associated with greater variability in RH, indicating that RH's effect on vegetation growth is influenced by the climate scenario. SWR is closely related to photosynthesis. Positive contribution rates under SSP126 and SSP585 suggest that increased radiation in these scenarios favors plant growth. In contrast, negative SWR contribution rates under SSP245 and SSP370 could be due to enhanced warming effects leading to more heat radiation, which may result in increased evaporation and plant dehydration, thus adversely affecting plant growth. Changes in SWVL1 are critical for vegetation growth; overly dry or wet soils can limit plant development. Negative SWVL1 contribution rates under SSP126 and SSP370 imply that drought conditions in these scenarios may restrict vegetation growth and decrease NDVI. Positive contributions under SSP245 and SSP585 suggest that appropriate soil moisture levels positively influence vegetation growth, potentially increasing NDVI. Temperature is a significant factor affecting plant growth. Higher temperatures generally promote plant growth, but extreme heat can cause thermal stress and inhibit it. Positive impacts of T2m changes on vegetation growth are observed under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585, especially with the highest contribution rate under SSP585, possibly leading to increased NDVI. Under SSP370, the negative contribution rate of T2m indicates that high temperatures have a more detrimental effect on vegetation growth, resulting in decreased NDVI. TP is a crucial factor influencing NDVI changes. Increased TP generally signifies favorable conditions for plant growth, while reduced TP can lead to drought and vegetation decline. Positive TP contribution rates under SSP126 and SSP245 suggest that adequate precipitation supports vegetation growth and increases NDVI. The negative contribution rate under SSP370 implies potential exacerbation of drought, limiting vegetation growth. Under SSP585, the higher TP contribution rate suggests that increased precipitation may benefit vegetation growth, possibly enhancing NDVI. CO2 concentration plays a vital role in photosynthesis. Higher CO2 concentrations usually promote plant growth, although extremely high levels can induce thermal stress.