## 5 Discussion
These two things show the strength of the interaction between Indonesia and climate dynamics in the Pacific Ocean, in the form of both rainfall and an increase in extreme events that impact price volatility. The strong La Nina year in 2015 also showed intense price volatility. However, apart from climatic factors, such as rice prices, volatility in 2018 tended to be dominated by macroeconomic factors. El Nino and La Nina affected rice conditions but did not cause fluctuations, because conditions neutralized the value of price volatility [33; 34]. The development of climate dynamics can be identified, which can influence volatility. The GARCH method can provide an overview of volatility in the level of shocks to the food economy at a regional scale, accompanied by various determinants in each region that can be used for policymaking. On rice price volatility, the average R-squared of provinces in Indonesia is 0.75, an excellent value in describing variables that explain the significance of volatility. In general, it was 25% defined by other components nationally. High volatility is proven to be always due to the influence of macroeconomic and climatic features. This situation increases the risk for lower class farming communities. The low exchange rate of farmers indicates that the emergence of rice price volatility will have a significant impact on their household economies. This research is in line with [39; 65], marked by global prices in local economic conditions. Still, it is found that the effect of exchange rates is more dominant than the level of international prices and the number of imports. It is in line with [40], which showed that increasing prices on a local scale due to the global food crisis and long-term effects are still being felt. This situation can always be helped by increased farmer value and controlled inflation, but what needs more attention is the very high price volatility that accompanied the global crisis in 2008. Factors such as climate dynamics can also worsen local conditions. Policies to deal with similar situations are needed to address the impact on the poor. Similar to [66], government intervention in the purchase and distribution of food can empirically control price volatility. From the results of the study, ten provinces were dominantly controlled by government intervention. The increase in the price of imported rice has impacted poor households more than wealthy households [41], one of the efforts to increase food security by reducing global shocks' impact on food price imports. The rupiah tended to be stable from October 2009 to May 2013, and depreciation occurred again in 2013, with a sharp decline in value at the end of December, when there was a deficit balance of payments and foreign investors' flight uncertainty over the debt crisis in Europe, foreign exchange liquidity, and a reduction in stimulus in the United States. Rupiah depreciation was recorded twice. The first was in 2015 due to the global impact of the protracted crisis in Greece, which affected global markets, the recovery of economic conditions in the US, and domestic needs undergoing government transition. Various aspects influenced the depreciation of the rupiah. A government policy package was carried out, plus there was an increase in prices followed a policy to abolish fuel subsidies in 2015. At the end of the year, there was a decline in global oil prices to help the rupiah remain stable. However, several areas were hit by high volatility at the provincial level, coupled with decreased rice availability due to El Nino. The dynamics of exchange rates was in line with [19] and price uncertainty were also found following an investigation by [40]. In 2018, with the trade war between the US and China and the current account deficit, the rupiah weakened again. Bank Indonesia implemented a monetary policy by raising the benchmark interest rate to 5.5%. In October 2018, the rupiah reached its highest value in the 2009-2018 period, resulting in volatility shocks that were almost evenly distributed in all provinces.