# Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Power Systems: The Italian Case Study
## 5 Climate Change and Future Italian Power System Scenarios
### Italian Scenarios for Climate Change  
Italy has published its own Climate Change and Energy Plan (PNIEC--Piano Integrato Energia e Clima) based on the recommendations of the European Commission in 2019. For the electricity sector, this plan set ambitious targets: RES must cover 55% of gross electricity consumption by 2030 (in 2019 the percentage was 35%). \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Scenario** & **Gen. Technology** & **2025** & **2030** & **2040** & **2050** & **2060** \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Small and Local**} & Wind & 250 & 450 & 500 & 550 & 650 \\ \cline{2-7}  & PV & 200 & 250 & 350 & 550 & 800 \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Big Market**} & Wind & 250 & 500 & 550 & 750 & 1000 \\ \cline{2-7}  & PV & 150 & 200 & 250 & 300 & 350 \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**100\% RES**} & Wind & 500 & 700 & 900 & 1400 & 1750 \\ \cline{2-7}  & PV & 250 & 300 & 500 & 700 & 900 \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Fossil and Nuclear**} & Wind & 500 & 700 & 1000 & 450 & 150 \\ \cline{2-7}  & PV & 100 & 125 & 180 & 200 & 220 \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Large Scale**} & Wind & 270 & 250 & 200 & 300 & 500 \\ \cline{2-7}  & PV & 150 & 125 & 100 & 130 & 180 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 4: Results for annual wind and PV generation [14]. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Technology** & **Scenario** & **Small and Local** & **Big Market** & **100\% RES** & **Fossil and Nuclear** & **Large Scale** \\ \hline
**Hydro** & 18\% & 13\% & 21\% & 12\% & 16\% \\ \hline
**Wind** & 28\% & 32\% & 52\% & 17\% & 40\% \\ \hline
**PV** & 23\% & 10\% & 24\% & 5\% & 14\% \\ \hline
**Biomass** & 19\% & 8\% & 9\% & 7\% & 6\% \\ \hline
**Nuclear** & 10\% & 19\% & - & 25\% & 20\% \\ \hline
**Fossil** & 4\% & 18\% & - & 33\% & 5\% \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 3: Generation mix (% of total) for the five contrasted decarbonized scenarios [35]. To achieve this, an additional 40 GW of RES generation capacity (especially wind and solar PV) must be installed by 2030. However, due to the recent European \"Green Deal\", these targets need to be increased: from 55% to 65% of the RES share of electricity consumption. This, in turn, means that Italy must increase from 40 GW to 70 GW RES of generation capacity. Nevertheless, 2030 is only an interim goal. The final target is full decarbonization by 2050, and electrification of final consumption must reach 55%. For the electricity sector, the PNIEC envisages the following targets: complete phase-out of coal-fired power generation by 2025; and development of new centralized storage systems (both hydroelectric and electrochemical). Terna (the Italian transmission system operator, TSO) and Snam (the Italian gas operator) have elaborated two forward-looking energy scenarios:  
* Business-As-Usual (BAU)--a technology-driven scenario that takes into account current trends, and in which neither the 2030 targets included in the Clean Energy Package (CEP) and PNIEC, nor the long term targets, are achieved;
* National Trend Italy (NT Italy)--a policy-driven scenario that enables the achievement of the Italian and European targets. The model inputs used for the BAU scenario differ from those used for the NT Italy scenario. Namely, the input for the BAU scenario is a storyline based on potential socio-economic, technological and environmental developments. Specifically, this storyline consists of a bottom-up approach not forced by political constraints, moderate GDP growth and a slight population decline, minimal incentives for energy efficiency, and only economical carbon phase-out. For the NT Italy scenario, the following inputs were used: an \"average\" climate year (average of climate years between 1982 and 2016) for the energy market simulations; electricity demand data taken from the PNIEC document, in line with the ENTSO-E national trend scenario; the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD) and ENTSOs database. Neither the BAU nor the NT Italy scenarios consider the impact of climate change on future energy production.