## 3 Results
### Land Cover Model Summary
For the Ntcheu district there is a moderate overall probability (45-70%) of land transitioning from forest-mixed to agriculture, but mostly in the southeastern parts (Figure 9). Transitions from barren to agriculture also had moderate but slightly lower probabilities (40-65%). The probability of land transitions from shrub-woodland to agriculture is also moderate (45-70%) across Ntcheu. In contrast, the probability of transition from agriculture to wetland is relatively low (10-40%). Figure 8: Land-Cover Transition Potentials (Probability): Dedza District. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Sub-Model**} & \multirow{2}{*}{\begin{tabular}{c} **Class Skill** \\ **Measure (Ratio)** \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{2}{*}{\begin{tabular}{c} **Sub-Model** \\ **Accuracy (\%)** \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{2}{*}{\begin{tabular}{c} **Sub-Model** \\ **Skill Measure** \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{2}{*}{\
\begin{tabular}{c} **Training** \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{2}{*}{
\begin{tabular}{c} **Testing** \\ \end{tabular} } \\ \hline Forest-mixed to Agriculture & & & 59.00 & 0.1822 & 0.4940 & 0.4932 \\ Transition: Forest-mixed to & & & & & \\ Agriculture & & 0.3108 & & & & \\ Persistence: Forest-mixed & 0.0536 & & & & & \\ \hline Barren to Agriculture & & 59.80 & 0.196 & 0.4895 & 0.4906 \\ Transition: Barren to Agriculture & 0.1482 & & & & & \\ Persistence: Barren & 0.2446 & & & & & \\ \hline Wetland to Agriculture & & 67.30 & 0.3451 & 0.4562 & 0.4605 \\ Transition: Wetland to Agriculture & 0.5352 & & & & & \\ Persistence: Wetland & 0.1548 & & & & \\ \hline Shrub-Woodland to Agriculture & & 58.90 & 0.1791 & 0.4867 & 0.4878 \\ Transition: Shrub-Woodland to Agriculture & & & & & \\ Persistence: Shrub-Woodland & 0.0784 & & & & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 9: Sub models in the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) using six explanatory variables and model performance summary for Ntcheu district (2001–2019). MLP-Markov chain modeling was used to predict land use change by 2050 using drivers of observed past change along with the probability of change at past and current time stamps of land cover to model future land-cover maps. By 2050 there is a high probability (80%) that most of Dedza land will be agriculture (see bold values in Table 10), while Ntcheu has a lower probability of 43%. Moderate to high probabilities were observed for conversion to built-up (from agriculture) at 72%, to barren at 66%, and to forest-mixed at 48%. Ntcheu's (italic values in Table 10) likelihood of conversion from other classes to agriculture, built-up, shrub-woodland, barren and wetland is 30% or above, while the transition from forest-mixed is slightly lower at 26%. There are slight gains from forest to shrub-woodland at 28%, wetland to shrub-woodland (29%), and the \"Other\" class to shrub-woodland at 29%. The MLP-Markov Chain models project a considerable increase in agricultural land cover that will dominate the landscapes of Dedza and Ntcheu by 2050 (Figure 10). The predicted land-cover map is in large contrast to 2019 and reveals that the agriculture class transformation and dominance will be much more pronounced for Dedza than for Ntcheu