## 3 Methodology
### Project Progress Generator Framework  
Computer-assisted simulation is a powerful method to analyze complex and dynamic projects by analyzing large data size, and this precise and flexible technique has been used in much of the research in the field of project management (see, for example, [14; 29]). Simulation software can predict the set of expected costs and the duration of the project, depending on input parameters. These inputs control activity duration, cost estimation and the effect of risks when producing cost estimates. However, as mentioned before, the idea of generating project progress simulators has not been mentioned in the prior studies. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to introduce this simulator and to optimize the resulting time series with SSA. The combination of simulation techniques and SSA analysis with different inputs will help project managers to obtain a realistic estimation of project cost and time in different sectors of the project and will reduce the delay risks. Furthermore, insight is gained into project progress behavior, deviations during project execution, the appropriate use of EAC formulas and identifying areas for additional research. The important aspect of the SSA is that it has two advantages over other methods, which makes it more beneficial in project control. One feature of the SSA is that it can be applied to series with small sample sizes. The other important aspect is that, unlike other methods, the SSA does not need any statistical assumptions, such as the stationarity of the series or the normality of the residuals. The basic concepts of the project progress generator have been shown by [PERSON] and [PERSON] [15]. In this paper, the well-developed model with more details is presented. The project progress generator framework has four main steps (as shown in Figure 2). The process starts with the project entry, which can be a given project or selected from a fictitious database and scheduling baseline. The project progress with the proposed simulator can be considered from two main perspectives:  
* Progress Simulation for Time (PST): PST calculates different indices in various time sections and focuses on time parameters to simulate the progress of projects. PST consists of the following steps:  
* Determining the input project and parameters;
* Constructing project scheduling;
* Updating the project's progress daily;
* Computing the project's actual progress daily, based on the set inputs. Suppose \(\aleph\) represents the random impact of risk overall, then \(\aleph\in\left(0,1\right].\) The impact of risk events, \(X\), integrated with the above task progress is shown as follows: \[(X_{i})_{j}=(X_{i})_{j-1}+(P_{i})_{s}*D_{i}*(\aleph_{i})_{j}\] where \(i\) and \(j\) represent the number of tasks and days, respectively. The random overall impact, \((\aleph_{i})_{j}\), shows the risk of each task in each day from its start to finish. Furthermore, \((P_{i})_{s}\) and \(D_{i}\) are daily scheduled progress in a planned day, \(s\), and experts' proposed status for the task, \(i\). * Calculating different measurement indices (i.e., EVM measurements);
* Continuing until the project is entirely completed. * Progress Simulation for Cost (PSC): PSC simulates the progress of projects via cost progress during project execution, calculates different indices in different time sections and focuses on cost parameters. PSC is developed mainly based on the PST structure and focuses on the cost parameters. The following is a list of other principles of PSC. 1. Determining the input costing parameters;
2. Calculating planned cost progress based on a general specification (i.e., inflation rate) and each task's specifications (i.e., costs of resources);
3. The daily cost of each task is calculated based on resource consumption of the task on that day and other costing parameters;
4. The daily project cost is calculated until the project is finished. The simulator outputs are time and cost time series that indicate the progressive behavior of the project's cost and time.