## 4 Conclusions  
Over the past few decades, the intensive study and analysis of hydrodynamic processes in the East Kazakhstan region have identified key trends and features of river flow behavior. This served as the basis for modeling and forecasting river runoff using the example of the small Kurchum River in the East Kazakhstan region. The resulting model was decomposed into a large river network, and the results were integrated into a flood hazard monitoringsystem to track, forecast, and respond to floods. This flood hazard monitoring system was integrated into the regional emergency monitoring system, which includes avalanche hazard monitoring [38].  
Thus, using retrospective data for 3 years (2019-2021), the small Kurchum River was modeled, and the results obtained were compared with real flood data. The assessment of the forecast model showed that the simulation results coincide with the actual data: 91.89% (2019), 89.09% (2020), and 95.91% (2021). The discrepancy between the actual and model data may be associated with factors such as snow cover conditions, groundwater levels, and input data characteristics (georeferencing accuracy, spatial resolution of images, and digital terrain models), as suggested by the authors' analysis of data quality and known sources of uncertainty. In addition, the sensitivity of the model is affected by the following factors: the use of high-resolution space images, the use of digital elevation models (DEMs) with a resolution of no more than 5 m, an increase in the number of control hydrological posts, and regular data updates.  
Conceptualization, N.D. and I.D.; methodology, N.D., N.S. and O.P.; software, R.C.; valuation, N.D. and I.D.; formal analysis, N.D., N.S. and O.P.; investigation, I.D., O.P. and R.C.; data curation, I.D., O.P. and R.C.; writing--original draft preparation, N.D., I.D., N.S., O.P. and R.C.; writing--review and editing, N.D. and I.D.; visualization, R.C.; funding acquisition, N.D. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.  
This article presents the results of scientific research obtained during the implementation of a scientific and technical program (BR21882022) on the topic <<Research of avalanche activity in the East Kazakhstan region for development of monitoring systems and scientific substantiation of their placement>> within the framework of program-targeted financing.  
The data presented in this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.  
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.  
The following abbreviations are used in this manuscript:  
The Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) in Davis, California, developed the River Analysis System (RAS) to aid hydraulic engineers in channel flow analysis and floodplain determination. HEC-RAS is simulation software used in computational fluid dynamics--specifically to model the hydraulics of water flow through natural rivers and other channels.  
MIKE 11 is a computer program that simulates flows and water levels; water quality; and sediment transport in rivers, floodplains, irrigation canals, reservoirs, and other inland water bodies. MIKE 11 is a 1D river model. It was developed by DHI.