## 5 Discussion  
### Dissimilarity of Land-Use Drivers at National and Provincial Levels  
Agricultural and economic development in Thailand has gone through three stages, from subsistence agriculture to manufacturing and service. Thailand is currently in the fourth stage in which the economy moves towards value-based and innovative products [8]. Economic growth has helped lift millions of people out of poverty into the middle class; however, this progress had negative consequences on biodiversity. Thailand safeguarded its terrestrial environment through economic transformation with the 40% forest cover target [8], and forest cover has remained at 31-33% nationwide since 2000 [11].  
Figure 5: Biodiversity hotspots and deforestation in 2030 under different scenarios. Note: Locations with buffers are patrolling radius distances of 5 km from each ranger station.  
However, economic development and forest quality are not the same across the country. At national level, the agricultural sector declined dramatically over the last four decades and now accounts for less than 10% of the GDP [6]. In contrast, agriculture doubled in Nan Province, from 16% of the GPP in 2000 to 32% in 2016, and this trend is likely to continue due to private business interests in maize cultivation and provincial policies [36]. Approximately half of the agricultural population lives in the highlands because it is there only source of income and support [68; 69; 70]. This rural, mainly tribal population lacks other economic opportunities and has less access to education [7].  
The Nan Development Plan aims to increase commodity production not only for those with economic means but also to improve the livelihood of rural people. Reduction of the poverty ratio by 4.4% in Nan Province during 2015-2016 was largely due to increased income from the agricultural sector [36]. Once a stable and profitable source of income, rubber prices fluctuated during this decade from a high of USD 4.40 per kg in 2011 to less than USD 1.50 per kg since 2014 [34]. In addition, the current government target is to reduce rubber plantations areas by 30% in northern Thailand to decrease supply. Maize cultivation has increased due to attractive market prices and support from large agriculture companies (i.e., loans, seeds, fertilizer, transportation) through contract farming schemes [30]. Biodiversity has suffered though, because most of this newly cultivated land is in forest reserves and partially in protected areas. Although the government (Cabinet Resolution on 30 June 2000) allows farmers there to settle and cultivate without land tenure, farmers opt for the perceived security of cash crops, especially maize [71].  
It should be noted that the three future land-use scenarios in 2030 defined by the stakeholders from relevant local and national levels may change due to uncertainty and dynamics of socio-economic drivers and provincial and national policies. Thus, it is not able to perform a sensitivity analysis due to limited scenario definitions. However, the evaluation results of the logistic regression models using the AUC [30; 67] indicated that the performance of predicted probabilities of land-use classes were excellent and very good, except cash crops (good). In addition, the results of this research indicated that the implementation of the 40% forest cover target [8], need to take into account the variations of land characteristics and socio-economic drivers at local level.