Spatio-Temporal Variations in Soil Erosion and Its Driving Forces in the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2050 Based on the RUSLE Model  
[PERSON]  
1 Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements, Beijing 100055, China; [EMAIL_ADDRESS]  
2 University of Southern Denmark  
[PERSON] et al. [11] used the RUSLE model in the Huangshui watershed to quantify the spatio-temporal variation in soil erosion rates. Based on an evaluation of the spatiotemporal characteristics of soil erosion modulus on the Loess Plateau from 1901 to 2016, [PERSON] et al. [12] used the RUSLE model. The findings showed that human activities were the primary cause of changes in soil erosion modulus on the Loess Plateau. According to earlier research, historical spatio-temporal changes have been the main focus of soil erosion investigations, often neglecting future soil erosion changes. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model [13] is a recently created model that combines transformation analysis strategies exploring the driving mechanisms of land use change (e.g., the Logistic-CA model) and pattern analysis strategies based on the probability of occurrence and competition mechanisms (e.g., the CLUE-S model) with a dominant component. These strategies, combined with seed growth mechanisms and multi-objective algorithms, enable a more thorough examination of land use change [14]. Meanwhile, the PLUS model has a greater advantage in simulating and predicting soil erosion conditions under future LUCC development scenarios [15]. In identifying soil erosion drivers on the Loess Plateau [16], we investigated soil erosion in the Loess Hills and Gullies of northern Shanxi and pointed out that the vegetation cover type on steep slopes tended to be homogeneous, and the primary cause of soil erosion was changes in land use patterns. [PERSON] et al. [17] investigated the 50-year variation in rainfall erosive force and its impact on Loess Plateau soil erosion and discovered that it is not the dominant factor influencing riverine sand transport. By identifying their spatially stratified heterogeneity, the geographical detector method can identify the driving forces behind geographic phenomena [18; 19].  
The warm temperate forest and farming subregion in the northeast of the Loess Plateau [20; 21; 22; 23; 24] mainly includes the southeast area, which comprises Henan Province's northwest region, Hebei Province's southwest region, and Shanxi Province. The three provinces are located in the eastern Loess Plateau, across the Yellow River Basin. The Ecological Restoration Plan of Territorial Space in the three provinces pointed out, while the 13 th Five-Year Plan was in effect, that the three provinces have made significant achievements in solidly promoting ecological restoration of land spaces and strengthening resource protection, but there are still problems such as large areas of land desertification, serious local soil erosion, and a lack of arable land reserve resources. There are not many studies on the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of soil erosion in this study area, and there are not many studies on the impact of various factors and how they interact with one another in studies that combine soil erosion and future land use changes. Therefore, from 2000 to 2020, the RUSLE model will be used to examine the spatio-temporal changes in soil erosion in the study area, which also combines it with the PLUS model in order to more accurately calculate the state of soil erosion in the investigation's area between 2025 and 2050. With the aid of the geographical detector, it also investigates the main contributing factors and interactions between the various types of land use and soil erosion in the research region. The goal is to create a scientific foundation for ecological conservation and restoration in the mild temperate forest farming subregion in the northeast of the Loess Plateau.