# Assessment of Air-Pollution Control Policy's Impact on China's PV Power: A System Dynamics Analysis
## 4 Simulation Results and Analysis
### Simulation Results in Different Policy Scenarios  
#### 4.1.1 Scenario 1: With no Policy Influence  
In Scenario 1, China's PV power industry will develop without any influence of air-pollution control policies. In this scenario, China will have excessive energy demand because of unreasonable industrial structure and high energy intensity. Clean power generation could not develop as expected due to the over-reliance on thermal power. In 2020, China's PV power generation will be only 153.22 billion kWh accounting for 2.09% of total power generation. PV power curtailment stays at a high level during the whole simulation period. It will peak in 2025 at 25.60% because of the lack  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c} \hline \hline
**Scenarios** & **Policy Measures** & **Policy Objectives** \\ \hline Scenario 1 & No air-pollution control policies. & No policy objectives \\ \hline \multirow{5}{*}{Scenario 2} & fundamental policy: & \\  & (1) Restrict new coal-fired power generation project; & \\  & (2) Stimulate renewable energy generation; & \\  & (3) Improve price mechanism of renewable energy generation; & \\  & (4) Control energy consumption; & \\  & (5) Improve the efficiency of coal utilization; & \\  & (6) Adjust industrial structure. & \\ \hline \multirow{5}{*}{Scenario 3} & fundamental policy: & \\  & The same as above. & \\  & supporting policy: & \\  & (1) Restrict coal consumption; & The same as above. \\  & (2) Outline the ’feed PV power to grid after & supporting policy: \\  & self-consumption’ principle for the development of & (1) Installed PV capacity should reach 35,000 MW \\  & distributed PV power; & in 2017, and reach 100,000 MW in 2020; \\  & (3) Set whole electricity subsidy and purchase & (2) Distributed PV installed capacity should reach \\  & mechanism for distributed PV power; & 15,000 MW in 2017; and reach 40,000 MW in 2020; \\  & (4) Accelerate power grids construction; & (3) Interregional power transmission to Jing-Jin-Ji \\  & (5) Increase benchmark prices for PV power & region, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta should reach 68 million kWh. \\  & (6) Accelerate technology advancement to increase & \\  & utilization hours and reduce cost. & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 1: Policy measures and objectives in different scenarios.  
of transmission channel. At that time, China's PV power generation will reach 220.19 billion kWh accounting for 2.59% of the total power generation. Installed PV capacity will have an accelerated growth during 2015-2020, and reach 109,855 MW in 2020. After that, the increasing rate will become steady, and installed PV capacity will reach 227,658 MW in 2025.  
Without enough finance support, distributed PV power, which supposed to be the main developing trend of PV power internationally, will develop slowly in China due to high costs. In 2020 distributed PV installed capacity will reach 40,872 MW, which just meet the policy target, accounting for only 37.21% of total installed PV capacity. In addition, the generation of distributed PV power will be 96.21 billion kWh at that time. Although distributed PV power will develop steadily during the 13 th five year plan period, its installed capacity will be only 88,836 MW, which lag behind the policy target (90,000 MW) in 2025. In addition, because of the relatively fast growth of PV power plant, the proportion of distributed PV power in PV power will generally remain at about 39% since 2020. The simulated results of all state variables and some important auxiliary variables in Scenario 1 are shown in Table 14.  
In general, without air-pollution control policies, China can hardly get a reasonable energy structure, and PV power can hardly receive good development. Over-reliance on thermal power, high costs and outmoded transmission grid make China's PV power (especially distributed PV power) could not meet the development targets, which is quite low.