# Physical Vulnerability and Landslide Risk Assessment in Tegucigalpa City, Honduras
## 5 Conclusions  
In this study, new methods were applied to estimate the hazard, vulnerability, and risk of rotational and translational landslides in the MCD while considering various sources of uncertainty. This study proposes a novel methodology that overcomes some of the limitations of previous studies and conceptual models and allows for a full qualitative estimation of the slow-moving landslide disaster risk. The spatial probability was estimated using the infinite slope model, with a probabilistic analytical method. The probabilistic method was employed to manage the uncertainty associated with the input data, which can be a limitation when applying the infinite slope model. The average spatial probability results (expressed as the probability of SF < 1) were 0.37 in colluvium and residual soil cover and 0.44 in the validated inventory of landslides and residual soils. Based on empirical data, probabilistic physical vulnerability functions were developed for the four existing single-floor housing types: wooden, precarious brick, popular brick, and block. The average damage (expressed as a percentage of the replacement value of the dwelling) was found to vary between 53% for precarious brick dwellings and 30% for block dwellings. The conducted research yielded significant insights into the spatial and temporal patterns of direct potential losses due to landslides in the MCD area. By integrating the likelihood of landslides, the vulnerability of residences, and exposed values, we were able to quantify and geographically illustrate the probable economic losses linked to landslides in the MCD. The estimated AAL from landslides in the region was USD 7.26 million. Furthermore, the anticipated loss corresponding to an event with a recurrence interval of 125 years was estimated at USD 21.3 million. The proposed methodology and the vulnerability functions could be applied in future slow-moving landslide disaster risk estimation studies. As a result of the probabilistic methodology and the inherent limitations on validating the results, these values should be considered as a reference for the potential losses caused by landslides in the study area and not as exact values of the potential losses. The application of the results of this work will contribute significantly to the reduction in landslide risks in the MCD by facilitating the strategic implementation of risk mitigation measures and their associated cost-benefit analyses. In areas with colluvial and residual soils that are currently uninhabited, restriction and control of the location of new housing and infrastructure is recommended. In inhabited areas on colluvium and residual soils, it is recommended that the indicators of possible landslides should be monitored and controlled, and also that funds should be invested in rainwater drainage to prevent the occurrence or reactivation of landslides. In addition, it would be highly recommended to raise awareness and educate the population living in areas with a high probability of landslide occurrence. These conceptual recommendations should be validated through rigorous cost-benefit analyses. The results of the present study can serve as an input for such estimations. Formal analysis, methodology, investigation, writing--original draft preparation, G.S. ; writing--review and editing, M.J.D.-C. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. Funding: Part of this research has been funded by the RETROCLIFF [Ref. MCIU-22-PID2021-122472 NB-100] and GEOCANTABRICAE [Ref. SV-PA-21-AYUD/2021/51766] projects; the RETROCLIFF project; the call 2021 for Knowledge Generation Projects funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, the Spanish Research Agency (AEI), and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) [Ref.