# Space Weather Effects on Satellites
## 5 Discussion and Conclusions  
Although the majority of the previous research [57; 58; 59; 60; 61; 62] concluded that the notable Starlink failure was due to the increased atmospheric drag, ranging from 20-30% up to 150% at the staging orbit of 210 km, some doubts are raised if that it is the sole cause [63]. Despite the fact that the latter also estimated an increased thermospheric mass density by 35%, these authors proposed that GSs occurring in close succession (within about one day) are accountable for more negative SW effects on spacecraft operation and stability. The effects of the atmospheric drag on LEO satellites has been the topic of intense research, e.g., [48; 49] and the references therein. Although it is well known that GSs lead to a global increase in the thermospheric neutral density, Joule heating due to EUV flare emission, and particle precipitation cause additional expansion in the 100\(-\)200 km region (or VLEO) [62]. There are several existing models, both empirical and physics-based, of the magnetospheric response during GSs, e.g., [64; 65]. Due to the lack of operational schemes (forecasting and nowcasting) on the coupling between thermosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere [59], however, the danger of similar satellite failures is still present. Further research into the satellite failures due to SW impacts will contribute to a better quantification of the economic losses and raise the importance of proper forecasting and nowcasting services to the benefit of satellite owners. Figure 2: Scatter plots of the difference between Starlink spacecraft launch (\(t\)) and Dst time (on the left) or \(B_{z}\) time (on the right). The 2022-02-03 case is shown with a star symbol. In contrast with a detailed magnetospheric or in situ data analysis of the SpaceX storm, we present in this study the solar and near-Earth IP contributions at the time of selected Starlink launches in order to evaluate the additional impact of the EM and radiation environment. The intensity of these solar and IP phenomena can be considered to be of minor to moderate importance compared to the largest values on record. In the current understanding of the SW effects, the observed weak-to-moderate SFs, particle events, and IP phenomena (e.g., strength of IMF \(B_{z}\)-component) are not expected to be responsible for the poor spacecraft performance, even less for its failure. Our results support the search for additional causes of the failure of Starlink satellites launched during an ongoing GS on 2022-02-03 and confirms that the cumulative effects of multiple weak SW events carry a hidden risk to (V)LEO satellites. With the increase in commercial constellations and expected growth of the in orbit satellite services (IoS) industry, there will be a need faced by satellite owners to protect their satellites in orbit from SW events in order to mitigate the economic losses incurred by such SW anomalies. This study offers a concise summary of known SW effects on satellites, including solar activity and magnetospheric, ionospheric, and atmospheric effects. We performed a comparative analysis of Starlink spacecraft launches based on the largest Dst index within about one-day period around the time of launch. The notable failure of the 2022-02-03 Starlink launch (the SpaceX storm) coincides with minor GSs preceding and following the launch (with the related arrival of IP ejecta and shock wave), a preceding weak SF, and an increased flux of energetic electrons following the launch by several hours. The radiation environment (both by in situ energetic particles and by increased particle fluxes in the van Allen belts) might be a contributing factor to the satellite's overall performance and ability to maintain orbital stability. The usage of radiation-hardened satellite components even for LEO and VLEO may well minimize future failure risks, which should be taken into consideration especially during solar activity maximum periods.