# A Modeling of Human Reliability Analysis on Dam Failure Caused by Extreme Weather
## 1 Introduction
The frequent occurrence of extreme weather, such as heavy rainfall and floods, has directly led to the need for further accounting and updating of the engineering-designed flood series of many reservoirs, increasing their uncertainty. As a result, the risk of designing and operating watershed development and utilization projects, flood control and drought relief projects obtained from existing engineering hydrological calculation methods has increased. The significance of safety management measures such as operational monitoring and emergency plans has been enhanced. The concept of risk is closely related to the method of calculating probability. The development of risk analysis techniques first originated in the United States, was used in the military industry, and then constantly researched and applied in various fields. The concept of dam risk has been introduced since the failure of the Teton Dam and Taccoa Fans Dam in the USA in 1976. In the early 1980s, the United States published a series of principles and methods for analyzing the risk of dams, primarily including the Relative Risk Index (RRI) put forward by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and the Field Scoring method put forward by the US Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) [6]. Dam risk analysis techniques have evolved since then. In the 1990s, Canada, the United States, Australia, and other countries established a dam safety evaluation method based on risk analysis techniques, formulated a series of regulations and guidelines on risk evaluation, and formed a basic framework for risk management. Presently, risk management is entering a practical phase in countries like Canada and Australia. BC Hydro's dam risk analysis [7] begins with a dam safety review process that includes design calculations, design criteria, construction records, dam operating conditions, dam operation and maintenance practices. Its main task is to evaluate the results of the risk analysis against risk criteria, considering factors such as the owner's dam safety regulations, the value of life and property of downstream residents, national laws, and the owner's ability to compensate. Australia, for its part, has developed a series of guidelines identifying steps in the process of risk categorization, risk analysis, risk assessment and risk treatment, and has applied the analysis methodology to several dams. China began research on dam risk assessment and management at the beginning of the 21 st century and has achieved a series of results. A study of dam failure mechanism and dam failure path [8] revealed the dam failure recording mechanism and failure process of earth-rock dams through field failure tests and laboratory tests. Ref. [9] proposed a fuzzy closeness-based dam failure pattern recognition method and a dam failure path mining a hierarchical analysis method. In the failure probability calculation, [10] established the performance functions of the dam structure and foundation and proposed a model for calculating the failure probability of a gravity dam structural system using Bayesian networks with integral Monte Carlo simulation. Ref. [11] investigated the overall damage mechanism of arch dams and the corresponding analysis criterion and proposed an orthotropic anisotropic damage principal model for dam concrete and its numerical simulation method. For the consequences of dam failure, [12] proposed a method for evaluating the service state of dams considering the socio-economic benefits, dam safety, environment and ecology, establishing a comprehensive evaluation model. Ref. [13] proposed a Bayesian Network-based human risk analysis model for estimating the loss of life due to flooding from dam failure. Dam risk analysis has experienced a shift from deterministic to probabilistic, and from the engineering safety concept to the engineering risk concept. Many scholars have realized the need for reservoir risk management as a dynamic management of the whole life process. However, existing dam risk analyses lack specific consideration of human factors.