## 4 Hazards Analysis
### Wildfire Hazard Assessment  
Wildfires pose a significant threat to Greece's natural environment. Due to repeated fire events, approximately 10% of the country's land has been transformed into barren, rocky terrain. Between 1983 and 2008, a total of 38,085 forest fire incidents were recorded, burning approximately 13.6 million hectares across the country. The Peloponnese accounted for the largest share of these events (27%), while the Ionian Islands, including Lefkas, experienced the lowest share (4%) [37]. Nationally, the areas affected were primarily forests (78.8%), followed by agricultural land (21.2%), emphasizing the critical role wildfires play in the degradation of Greece's ecosystems, which recover only slowly [37]. On Lefkas Island, wildfire outbreaks are relatively rare, averaging approximately five incidents per year, but the island shows a 7% rate of fire recurrence, suggesting certain locations may be prone to repeated ignition [37]. Figure 12 presents annual burned areas on the island, based on data from the National Observatory of Athens [38], supplemented by smaller events reported in local media [28]. To assess wildfire hazard across the island, we applied a model based on six spatial parameters, excluding short-term meteorological factors or climate change effects, in order to focus on baseline spatial vulnerability [22]. Each parameter was rated on a scale of 0 to 5, with higher scores indicating greater hazard, and weighted based on its relative contribution to wildfire risk (Table 3, Figure 12):  
* Slope: Steeper slopes accelerate fire spread, so areas with gradients over 40% were assigned the highest hazard values. Lefkas western coasts are almost entirely areas with high-hazard values. * Land Use: Land cover was evaluated using an adapted version of the Golden Gate National Recreation Area Fire Management Plan in the USA (California) [39], modified for Greek conditions. The model assigns 65% weight to natural and 35% to human-related factors. Forested areas were classified as the most vulnerable. * Slope Aspect: Southeast- and southwest-facing slopes receive more sunlight and retain less moisture, making them more susceptible to fire outbreaks [34]. * Distance from Settlements: Zones within 400 m of settlements were considered high-hazard areas, as human activity increases the likelihood of fire ignition. * Distance from the Road Network: Areas within 50 m of roads, especially paved ones, were assigned higher hazard values due to increased accessibility and the presence of potential fire-starting activities. Lefkas has a road network that spans nearly the entire island. * Distance from the Public Power Corporation (PPC): A 30 m buffer around the PPC network was considered a high-risk zone. On Lefkas, the PPC line runs across the island from the southwest to northeast, forming a continuous hazard corridor. Figure 11: Distribution of historical landslide events across hazard categories according to the Landslide Hazard Map. Most events fall within the medium- to very-high-hazard hazard zones, supporting the spatial reliability of the susceptibility model. Based on this analysis, the Wildfire Hazard Map indicates that a substantial portion of Lefkas Island is classified as high or very high hazard, with 35.7% of the island falling into the high category. Notably, the locations of past wildfire events correlate strongly with the  
Figure 12: Spatial distribution of the normalized parameters used (**a**–**f**). The Wildfire Hazard Map of Lefkas Island (**g**) shows that most areas on the island have high- to very-high-hazard levels. The map also marks the locations of past fire events.