# The Conditional Probability of Correlating East Pacific Earthquakes with NOAA Electron Bursts
## 5 Conclusions  
A new statistical correlation analysis between precipitating EBs and strong EQs was carried out from the analysis of exactly 16.5 years of NOAA-15 particle data. This seemed to indicate that electrons in the loss cone were mainly observed around 57 h before main shocks with M \(\geq\) 6 in the East Pacific, comprising countries where seismic activity is frequently a danger. Results are in line with previous single-case observations by the DEMETER satellite. The new correlation time is significantly longer than the correlation time found for strong West Pacific EQs, with EBs occurring a few hours prior. It again supports the hypothesis that there might exist a link between ionospheric and lithospheric activities of shallow EQs whose depths are less than 200 km. As for West Pacific EQs, also this correlation happens regardless of whether the EQs occurred in the sea or on the mainland. The parameter L-shell of the electrons was defined uniquely, as in the previous publication on West Pacific EQs [27], therein providing a precise definition of an EB to also carry out an EQ forecast in the East Pacific. The L-shell distribution in this new case was distributed differently in terms of latitude, compared to the West Pacific case, which probably reflects the asymmetry of the geomagnetic field. A probability gain G = 2 was calculated which could be used to increase the pre-alarm time of some early warnings for both strong EQs and tsunamis on the East Pacific's coasts. Despite the high number of false alarms being greater than in the West Pacific case, a time-dependent conditional probability interpretation of the process was proposed. This research received no external funding. Not applicable. The NOAA-15 electron CRs from 1998, first accessed on 22 August 2022: [[http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/satellite/poes/dataaccess.html](http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/satellite/poes/dataaccess.html)]([http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/satellite/poes/dataaccess.html](http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/satellite/poes/dataaccess.html)). Corrections by proton contaminations were carried out using software downloaded from the Virtual Radiation Belt Observatory, first accessed on 22 August 2022: [[http://virbo.org/POES#Processing](http://virbo.org/POES#Processing)]([http://virbo.org/POES#Processing](http://virbo.org/POES#Processing)). The geomagnetic field was re-evaluated together with L-shells on the NOAA-15 orbit using the International Ge  
Figure 10: The probability gain approaching the correlation peak around 57 h; it was obtained by fitting the probability gain distribution from bin intervals of 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 14, and 17 h; the 3 sigmas limit is indicated by the red horizontal dashed. omagnetic Reference Field (IGRF-13) model, first accessed on 22 August 2022, and downloaded at: [[http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/IAGA/vmod/igrf.html](http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/IAGA/vmod/igrf.html)]([http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/IAGA/vmod/igrf.html](http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/IAGA/vmod/igrf.html)). Geomagnetic Ap indexes and Dst variations, first accessed on 22 August 2022, were downloaded at the links [[https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/data.shtml](https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/data.shtml)]([https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/data.shtml](https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/data.shtml)) and [[http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dst_final/index.html](http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dst_final/index.html)]([http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dst_final/index.html](http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dst_final/index.html)), respectively. The UNILIB libraries to calculate mirror altitudes, first accessed on 22 August 2022, were downloaded at [[https://www.mag-unilib.eu](https://www.mag-unilib.eu)]([https://www.mag-unilib.eu](https://www.mag-unilib.eu)).