## 4 Discussion
### Projected LULCs and ESV Changes by 2035 Under Multiple Scenarios  
In the four scenario predictions, in the NDS, the land areas allocated to farming, forestry, and grassland are persistently diminishing, negatively affected by urban expansion. In the EPS, an upward trend is evident in the regions designated for farm, forest, and grassland uses, with increases in forest land and grassland in the northern part of Lake Tai and the northern part of the study area, indicating the development of ecological land use. In terms of farmland, the EPS has the largest area of farmland, indicating the greatest protection of farmland in this scenario. Under the CDS, the allocation of areas for farming, forestry, grassland, and other land uses complies with the national land planning regulations, protecting basic farmland and important water areas, and increasing the area of built-up land, taking into account urban development. The ESV spatial distribution under various scenario predictions aligning with the pattern observed between 2000 and 2020 implies that there has been no substantial alteration in the spatial arrangement of ESV across the study area for twenty years. The differences in ESV distribution are primarily concentrated in the medium and higher values, particularly in the southwestern water area and forest land area of the study region. In the NDS and EPS, these areas exhibit medium and higher ESV distributions, while in the farmland protection and comprehensive development scenarios, the ESV distribution in these areas is medium and lower. The findings from the multi-scenario simulation model point towards a decreasing ESV total for the four scenarios within the study area by 2035, with distribution differences mainly reflected in water bodies and forest land areas. Therefore, while developing and utilizing land resources, it is imperative to prioritize the conservation of aquatic and forest resources to maintain ecosystem sustainability. Based on the land use and ESV projections for the study area under different scenarios, this study suggests the following key areas for future spatial planning: First, it is crucial to implement land use zoning and stricter land protection regulations. Policy measures could focus on limiting the conversion of high-value ecological lands, such as wetlands and forests, into urban development zones. Additionally, urban expansion could be managed by creating buffer zones between built-up areas and sensitive ecological regions, particularly around Tai Lake and its surrounding areas. These buffer zones could be designated as protected areas to preserve biodiversity and enhance ES functions. Furthermore, integrating land use planning with urban development strategies, while simultaneously establishing ecological and environmental monitoring systems, is essential. By incorporating more comprehensive data on land cover, land use intensity, and ESs into the decision-making process, regional authorities can ensure that future urban expansion does not compromise critical ecological functions. Multi-scenario simulations provide valuable insights into potential future developments, and the spatiotemporal trends in various land uses hold indispensable practical significance for guiding the spatial layout of cities in a more effective manner. Such simulations enable urban areas to progress towards a more intensive and sustainable direction during new eras and development phases. Additionally, studying ESV under different scenarios can better coordinate the optimization of land resource management and the compensation of ecosystems, thereby implementing the development concept that \"green mountains and clear waters are indeed mountains of gold and silver\". Building upon previous research, this study focuses on ESV assessment and forecasting based on LUCs within the constraints of regional policies, which is highly relevant to the region and closely aligned with the development plans of the study area. However, there are still some limitations in this study.