## 1 Introduction  
The cyber space is recognized as the fifth battlespace following land, sea, air, and space. In addition to simply protecting information, cyber warfare can affect military strategies and operations that are directly linked to national security. Although the military is attempting to detect and mitigate cyber attacks to counter them, cyber attacks are evolving constantly and new types of attacks are continuing to emerge [1, 2].  
To effectively respond to the cyber attack that develops in various forms, it is necessary to analyze the effects of cyber attacks on the assets to be protected and establish defense policies. Furthermore, to respond more proactively, it is essential to analyze not only existing cyber attacks, but also the possible occurrence of new types of cyber attacks. In other words, the military should anticipate the possibility of an attack by the enemy, analyze in advance whether a specific situation would occur or what a 0-day vulnerability may cause, and then simulate the damage in various situations to select the best policy.  
The assets to be protected by the military are not limited to information, but also include weapon systems deployed throughout the country. The ability to construct large-scale networks is therefore crucial in enabling the analysis of the effects of cyber attacks on each military asset, as well as on joint strategies and operations.  
Many studies have been conducted on cyber attack modeling such as attack graph approach, attack tree approach, cyber kill chain modeling approach, etc. [3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14]. Note that previous studies on cyber attack modeling has induced some issues such as scalability in a large-scale network system composed of tens of thousands of hosts, which make the prediction of possible attack paths and patterns be difficult. Because limitations exist for fine-tuning the various attack types, it is therefore difficult to setup complex cyber attack scenarios. Recently, cyber attacks do not simply end with a single attack, but have a complex form of various types of attacks. Furthermore, new forms of cyber attacks are taking place continuously. To cope with these challenges, new approach for modeling method which is flexible enough to easily add newly emerging attack types and model complicated attack process systematically is required. In addition, a scalable modeling method is needed in view of analyzing the effect of cyber attacks on large-scale military networks at the national level.  
We herein propose a hierarchical multi-stage attack scenario modeling based on the goal and effect (G&E) model. It is scalable to large network environments and has features to establish various attack types and effects. In addition, we propose an analysis system for cyber battles. This system can be used to proactively analyze damages caused by various cyber attacks and secure countermeasures. This paper not only suggests a methodology, but also proposes a practical modeling method and system. The actual cyber attack case is simulated using the proposed modeling method, and the performance of the proposed analysis system is quantitatively evaluated.  
In Section 2, we review previous studies regarding cyber attack modeling methods and cyber attack classification studies. Section 3 describes the proposed cyber attack modeling method and analysis system. Section 4 presents the simulation and performance evaluation results. Finally, Section 5 concludes the paper.