# Physical Vulnerability and Landslide Risk Assessment in Tegucigalpa City, Honduras
## 4 Discussion
In another study [54], which used physical methods to estimate risk for debris flows, a loss of EUR 3.11 million was calculated for an exposed value of homes, amounting to EUR 14.9 million over a 100-year return period, representing 20% of the exposed value. In the current study, the loss values for a return period of 125 years (USD 21.3 million) represent 2% of the exposed value (USD 1255 million), which is reasonable given that slow-moving landslides are far less destructive than debris flows. A complete external validation of the risk estimation results was not possible due to inherent validation difficulties and data limitations in the study area. However, the reasonability of the results was confirmed by consulting external sources of information. When evaluating the expected loss data, it is essential to consider the varying impact these losses have, according to the socio-economic status of families. Research from around the world has demonstrated that, when individuals living in poverty experience disasters, the relative impact on wealth is two to three times greater compared to those not living in poverty [55]. Potential losses will have significantly different implications for precarious and residential neighborhoods, especially in a country such as Honduras, where there are high levels of inequality. In Honduras, the poorest 20% of the population only accounts for 5% of the income, while the richest 20% controls 55% of the income [56]. These inequalities should be taken into account when developing risk reduction interventions, which should prioritize the most vulnerable families. In terms of the scope of the risk estimation results, it is important to consider that they reflect the risk in the 2020 exposure scenario. According to the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change [57], increased exposure and vulnerability are part of the main trends that determine the increase in the risk of climate disasters at a global level. Similarly, if measures are not taken, the risk values for slow-moving landslides estimated for the MDC for the year 2020 will increase with the growth of the population, as well as the proportion of the urban sprawl located on the colluvium and residual soils. With a projected year-on-year growth rate of 1.5% for 2020 [21], the population is expected to increase by roughly 25% over 15 years, increasing the landslide exposure along with the associated risk. Moreover, it is projected that the frequency and severity of landslides will increase with the intensification of extreme rainfall due to climate change [58]. Consequently, the results obtained from this analysis serve as a starting point for understanding the expected losses caused by slow-moving landslides in the study area, which will escalate together with increasing human exposure and the effects of climate change. Therefore, they will need to be updated to reflect changes in the urban configuration. Furthermore, the results do not consider the effects of climate change on the temporal probability of landslides, and these elements would need to be considered in future studies.