## 3 Carbon Lock-In Hinders Mexico's Sustainable Energy Transition
### Infrastructural and Technological Lock-In  
Infrastructures and energy technologies often lock societies into carbon-intensive emission pathways because of the length of time before investments pay off [29]. Oil and gas extraction projects are usually not only capital intensive but also require many years of planning, exploration, and development [91], and once the projects have been explored, appraised, and developed, revenues are likely to be lucrative. Because such projects ensure energy security, most receive huge financial support and guarantees from the state, which becomes a stakeholder in the projects. When Mexico's oil production declined, it was said to be time for the country to stop producing crude oil. As mentioned, the previous administration had begun to plan, explore, and develop renewables but the [PERSON] rolled back the reforms and started to reinforce existing carbon lock-ins, invoking the COVID-19 pandemic as justification [79].  
Mexico's transition towards sustainable energy is undermined by the government expanding its fossil-fuel burning energy infrastructure. The operating conditions, fuel type/quality, and physical specifications generally mean that infrastructures are only modified slightly during their lifetimes, thus making it difficult to adopt new and cleaner renewable energy technologies [29]. Without making more ambitious efforts and revising its goals for national energy efficiency, Mexico is sure to fall short of its target of producing 35 per cent of its energy from renewable sources by 2024 and 43 per cent by 2030 [43; 92]. Some experts, however, are not discouraged by the new development in Mexico [93; 94]: [PERSON] [93] writes that by investing in energy storage, Mexico will be able to diminish the effects of the technological lock-in that favour fossil energy. However, financial incentives are needed to accelerate investment.  
Other experts see new opportunities for moving away from energy-related infrastructure based on demand, as well as technological lock-in, by radically decarbonising sectors whose energy demands drive CO\({}_{2}\) emissions--like the transport sector, responsible for 41 per cent of Mexico's total energy consumption [92; 95]. In Mexico, 26 to 30 per cent of the total CO\({}_{2}\)-eq emissions come from transport [96], which primarily uses petrol and diesel. Mexico has 50,594,282 automotive units, of which 35,270,440 are cars, 638,171 are passenger buses, and 10,834,877 are trucks [97]. To model the decarbonisation scenario, [PERSON] et al. [98] developed a baseline for transportation and compared it with the implementation of 21 mitigation measures. They concluded that Mexico's transport sector can be decarbonised using measures such as traffic optimisation, vehicle energy efficiency, and modal shifts from private internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in (bus) rapid transport, as well as by switching from fossil to biofuels or using electric vehicles.  
However, decarbonising energy-intensive sectors such as transport and industry require reducing emissions from electricity generation [32]. Electrifying Mexico's transport sector can help the country manage its energy transition if sufficient charging stations are deployed. Mexico now has approximately 1500 electric stations, around 70 per cent public and 30 per cent private. Half of all the charging stations are in Mexico City, Nuevo Leon, and Aguascalientes. Most of them are free and located in shopping malls; private stations charge USD 4 or less for a full recharge [99]. Deploying this infrastructure will promote technological change in mobility. Because Mexico's existing infrastructure and technological carbon lock-in focuses on the supply side, private sector engagement can drive the deployment of charging infrastructures for electric vehicles [98].