## 4 Results
### Altered Landscape Pattern  
FRAGSTATS analysis revealed that the number of forest patches increased more than two-fold over the last 7 years, and mean patch size decreased about 62% compared to year 2009. Over the next 14 years of simulation (2016-2030), the number of patches would increase from 2075 at baseline to 2319 for the trend scenario. There will be a similar number (2127 patches) for the conservation scenario (Table 3). The market-based scenario has least number of patches (1,911) due to small remnant forests outside protected areas that would be converted for agriculture use, while isolated forest patches inside protected areas would be connected through natural regeneration and plantation (Table 3). The number of patches generally corresponds with mean patch size index, which changed from 363 ha in 2016 to 259 ha, 364 ha, and 385 ha for the trend, market-based, and conservation scenarios, respectively. Although the mean patch size for the market-based is nearly identical to the baseline, largest patch index and the core area of a forest patch declined substantially from baseline for the trend scenario and declined to a lesser extent for the market-based scenario, while substantially increasing for the conservation scenario. The conversion of small forest remnants nearby existing cultivation areas to meet agricultural demands under the trend and market-based scenarios explains these patterns. In contrast, fragmented forest patches become connected through natural regeneration or forest plantation under the conservation scenario. The agricultural landscape would also shift to higher elevation. Existing rubber plantations (perennial trees) were found at mean elevation 253 m above sea level in 2009, 620 m in 2016, and would further shift to higher elevation (943 m) under the trend scenario, with similar results for the market-based and conservation scenarios. A substantial increase in rubber plantations would be expected in WSC1 and WSC2, which are headwater watersheds [61], under the trend scenario (Table 4). Although the conservation scenario would result in shifting the mean elevation for cash crops over 400 m similar to the trend scenario, cash crops occupied half of the baseline amount and approximately 22% of the market-based scenario. The extent of maize cultivation would slightly decrease under the conservation scenario (Table 4), but it would increase substantially under the trend and market-based scenarios, while remaining at the same elevation or moving to lower elevations due to restriction policies. Human settlement would expand to higher elevation due to the assumed expansion of infrastructure under all scenarios. Shifting cultivation substantially increased in WSC1 and WCS2 during 2009-2016, but forest will regenerate under the conservation scenario. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Patch Indices/MSA Values** & **2009** & **Baseline (2016)** & **Trend** & **Market-Based** & **Conservation** \\ \hline \% forest area & 70.00 & 61.95 & 47.36 & 57.15 & 67.02 \\ No. of patches & 853 & 2075 & 2.319 & 1911 & 2127 \\ Mean patch size (ha) & 966 & 363 & 259 & 364 & 385 \\ Largest patch index (\%) & 67 & 55 & 32 & 44 & 60 \\ Total core area (1000 x ha) & 279 & 235 & 158 & 204 & 261 \\ Mean core area (ha) & 327 & 113 & 68 & 107 & 123 \\ Mean proximity index (m) & 480 & 475 & 497 & 489 & 467 \\ Overall MSA & 0.41 & 0.36 & 0.29 & 0.35 & 0.40 \\ Remaining MSA caused by & 0.77 & 0.69 & 0.59 & 0.66 & 0.74 \\ land use (MSA\({}_{\rm ul}\)) & & & & & \\ Remaining MSA caused by & 0.75 & 0.84 & 0.85 & 0.84 & 0.84 \\ Infrastructure (MSA\({}_{\rm p}\)) & & & & & \\ Remaining MSA caused by & & & & & \\ fragmentation (MSA\({}_{\rm p}\)) & & & & & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 3: Landscape indices of remaining forest area and relative contribution of different threats to the reduced MSA in Nan province during 2016–2030.