# Exploring the Dynamics of Global Plate Motion Based on the Granger Causality Test
## 1 Introduction  
The Earth is a complex whole, and its interior is composed of multiple layers. The composition of the Earth's interior, which is the structure of each sphere inside the Earth, can be inferred through the observation of seismic waves. This structure includes the crust, the upper mantle, the transient layer, the lower mantle, the D\" layer, the outer core, and the inner core [1]. There are intricate interactions between the spherical layers, which can manifest in the form of crustal movements. Many forms of movement of the lithosphere composing the Earth's surface can be found. There is not only the rotation of the Earth's axis caused by the Earth's rotation but also the relative motion within the lithosphere. With the development of geology and geophysics, the Earth's surface can be divided into six major plates, including the Eurasian, African, Indian Ocean, Antarctica, Pacific, and America plates [2]. The second-generation model [3, 4], the third-generation model [5], and the fourth-generation model [6] were successively proposed. These lithospheric plates vary in size, and the relative motion between them is too slow to notice by humans. However, as time goes by, the plates will develop intense movements when their relative motions exceed the critical state. Thus, various geological disasters such as earthquakes and volcanoes can be triggered and cause serious damage to the lives and property of humans. Therefore, understanding the movement law and geodynamic mechanism of these platesis a fascinating subject. It is of great significance to study the occurrences of earthquakes and eruptions of volcanoes mechanically, and to predict these events to minimize the loss of life and property, thus ensuring the sustainable development of human society. During the last century, benefiting from the development of science and technology, increasingly advanced technologies have been applied to studying the patterns of plate movements. Paleomagnetism, a powerful tool for the quantitative study of plate kinematics and ancient geography, emerged in the 1960s [7; 8]. Using high-quality paleomagnetic data, [PERSON] et al. quantitatively established the first geologically viable configuration and depicted the paleogeographic positions of the Nuna supercontinent [9]. [PERSON] et al. took advantage of reliable Cretaceous paleomagnetic data obtained from the Lhasa terrane (a crust fragment formed on a tectonic plate and accreted or \"sutured\" to crust lying on another plate) to study the complex process and timing of the India-Asia plate collision, and found the collision time was Eocene [10]. Furthermore, the development of new space geodetic technologies, such as the global positioning system (GPS), very long baseline interferometry (VLBI), and satellite laser ranging (SLR), opened up new ways of monitoring and studying crustal movements and can measure the overall motion of Earth with millimeter-level precision. In addition, these new technologies and new tools have been applied to research on plate motions and crustal deformation, which provide the possibility of solving many basic problems in plate motion research and have fundamentally changed human monitoring and study of earth movements [11; 12; 13]. The geodynamic mechanism is the research focus and core issue of plate motions and plate tectonics, and it is also the greatest mystery in Earth science [14; 15]. Since the discovery by humans of the phenomenon of plate motion, geologists have been exploring the dynamic mechanisms and sources of power, and various geodynamic hypotheses have been created, such as earth contraction [16], earth expansion [17], continental drift [18; 19], seafloor spreading [20], plate tectonics [2; 6; 21], mantle convection [22; 23], mantle plumes [24; 25; 26], and surge tectonics [27]. Some of these are in contradiction, some are not. Mantle convection is the most famous among many Earth dynamic hypotheses and the most recognized by Earth scientists. After years of research, this hypothesis has made great progress.