## 3 Results and Discussion
### Ignition Probability of Marine Oil on Heated Surface  
The ignition probability of leaked marine oil in the fishing vessel's engine room was carried out with experimental tests. In these tests, diesel was selected as the type of marine oil, and the dosage was fixed at 15 mL. A total of 30 tests were performed to determine the typical heated-surface temperature of each identified fishing vessel's engine room. Aimed at the experiment of the ignition probability of marine oil on a typical heated surface in the engine room, the temperature of the heated-surface platform was first raised to a fixed value. Secondly, the marine diesel oil needs to flow through the drainage tank to the heated surface. In this step, the amount of marine diesel oil was selected as 15 mL, and the heating step of the heated surface was 5 \({}^{\circ}\)C. After the marine diesel oil leaks onto heated-surface platform, there is a need to observe whether there is an ignition phenomenon to record the situation of marine oil on the heated surface. By observing the experimental phenomenon, it can be seen that marine diesel oil leaks onto the heated surface with a temperature of 465 \({}^{\circ}\)C, which does not result in ignition every time. Other hot-surface temperatures show different ignition times and flame behaviors. If the heated-surface platform continues to warm, at a constant temperature of 480 \({}^{\circ}\)C, the number of ignition times of leaked marine oil will be greatly increased. In experimental scenarios where the typical heated-surface temperatures are above 500 \({}^{\circ}\)C, marine diesel can be ignited nearly every time. The marine oil leaks above the heated surface formed by the machinery, and the occurrence of ignition behavior can be regarded as a random event. The ignition probability \(P_{i}\) of marine oil ranges from 0 to 1, which indicates that the ignition probability of marine oil occurring on the heated surface during the leaking process cannot be simply expressed as a linear function. Figure 4: Ignition process of leaked marine oil on heated surface: (**a**) initial ignition at a surface temperature of 460 \({}^{\circ}\)C; (**b**) initial ignition at a surface temperature of 500 \({}^{\circ}\)C; (**c**) flame propagation after marine diesel oil ignition; (**d**) stable combustion of marine diesel oil above heated surface. In this research, the logic model was applied to represent ignition probability, as shown in Equation (16). The logical transformation corresponding to ignition probability can be expressed as a linear function of an independent variable through the change in function. The ignition probability problem should conform to the logistic regression function, which can be shown by Equation (17). \[\text{Logit}(P)=\text{ln}\bigg{(}\frac{P}{1-P}\bigg{)} \tag{16}\]  
\[P_{\text{i}}=\frac{\text{exp}(\beta_{0}+\beta_{1}X)}{1+\text{exp}(\beta_{0}+ \beta_{1}X)} \tag{17}\]  
where \(\beta\) is the logistic regression coefficient; \(X\) is the linear function. Figure 5 shows the ignition probability distribution of leaked marine oil on the heated surface in the fishing vessel's engine room. In this research, marine diesel oil with an experimental dosage of 15 mL was taken as an example, and another variable was the high-temperature heated surface at different temperatures. The ignition probability of marine oil presents a gradually increasing trend with the increase in the typical heated-surface temperature. This suggests that the phenomenon of leaked marine oil ignited by the heated surface of equipment in a fishing vessel's engine room is a probabilistic accident. Not every time the leaked marine oil touches the surface of equipment in the engine room will the ignition accident occur, but the ignition probability changes at different temperatures. With the temperature of a typical heated surface in the engine room increasing gradually, the ignition probability distribution of marine oil on a heated surface can be divided into three stages.