# Increasing Resilience of Production Systems by Integrated Design
## 2 Materials and Methods  
### Risk Management and Resilience Concepts Transferred to Manufacturing Systems  
Risk management as a measure and business discipline is typically known as corporate risk management, which focuses on accounting and financial reporting (see, e.g., [5]) or as a relevant step in project management processes (see, e.g., [6]). In order to evaluate risk probabilities and their impacts, the identification and classification of risks are inevitable. In a survey by [PERSON] et al. [7], ten major challenges on future production systems were identified that can be subsumed into complexity (of supply networks and products as well as processes), changing customer behavior and expectations, market changes (globalization, volatility and increased competition) as well as impacts caused by politics, natural disasters, and unstable economics. With reference to the aforementioned risk management, a structuring of risk categories is required. Various descriptions of system structure and meta-level representations have been developed in the context of factories (see, e.g., [8; 9]). A possible corresponding classification of risks refers to the depicted internal and external flows of production systems. Thus, we propose the separation of risks into the categories described in Table 1.  
In industrial practice, enterprises are possibly confronted with combined threats of several risk categories. In addition to that, it should be highlighted that each of these risk categories is translated into an economic evaluation, as corporate decision-making ultimately depends on monetary performance metrics. Thus, each risk category requires translation into specific cause-effect relationships in order to operationalize risk assessment and to elaborate measures. Moreover, the effect of one risk may even express itself in further categories. Conversely, causes may be relevant in several risk categories. Furthermore, the risk effects can be separated according to their time-related behavior. According to this, Table 1 illustrates a typical specification of risks. With regard to production systems, these risks may cause external and internal turbulence, increasing the necessity of short adaption and transformation times. This leads to the necessity of flexibility and the quick configurability of elements and processes in manufacturing facilities. From a system-based point of view, an overall production system may be divided into several subsystems of interchangeable and reconfigurable components based on standardized interfaces and a modular structure. Figure 1 depicts this system concept as a framework to anticipate as well as to mitigate risk impacts and to generate a common understanding of subsequent sections. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c} \hline \hline
**Category** & **Cause** & **Effect** & **Expression** \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{Provement risk} & Political regulation & Raw material price & \multirow{2}{*}{discrete} \\  & Market shortage & & \\  & Complex supply & & \\  & networks & & \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{Production risk} & Machine failure & Production stop & \multirow{2}{*}{discrete} \\  & Complexity of & Increasing throughput & \\  & material flow & times & \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{Personnel risk} & Increased competition & Fluctuation & \multirow{2}{*}{continuous} \\  & Changing & Fluctuation & \\  & expectations & & \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{Sales risk} & Increased competition & Price reductions & \multirow{2}{*}{continuous} \\  & Volatility of markets & Reduced forecast & \multirow{2}{*}{continuous} \\  & & precision & \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{Information (Technology)-related risk} & Data inconsistency & Reduced forecast & \multirow{2}{*}{discrete} \\  & IT-security hazards & & \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{Ecological risk} & \multirow{2}{*}{Climate Change} & Temperature increase in & \multirow{2}{*}{continuous} \\  & & production facilities & \\ \cline{1-1}  & & Increased probability of & \\ \cline{1-1}  & & extreme weather events & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}