# Regional Climate Change in Southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, Central America and the Caribbean
## 1 Introduction
The Caribbean climate is categorized as dry winter tropical [31], with precipitation occurring in bimodal seasonal patterns: early in the year in April-June and later in August-November [32], with the minimum between both seasons known as inter-season drought [14]. This pattern is predominant throughout the southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula (SM-YP) [9,33] and CA. According to [33], the Caribbean region experiences changes due to the increase in global temperature, including significant variability in average annual rainfall levels, more frequent floods and droughs, more intense hurricanes and tropical storms, and sea level rise. In this context, SM-YP, CA, and the Caribbean are affected by a high vulnerability to extreme hydro-climatological phenomena. These phenomena are reported in southeastern Mexico [3,7,19,34,35] and could affect the productivity of agricultural crops and the distribution of ecosystems [36]. Crop production is directly influenced by precipitation and temperature. Precipitation co-determines the availability of water and the level of soil moisture, which are critical factors for crop growth, while the temperature and humidity of the soil determine the duration of the growing season, crop development, and water needs [37]. Thus, climate-related changes in the magnitude and distribution of precipitation and temperature will have negative impacts on agricultural performance [38]. Likewise, these changes affect the food security of developing countries [39], including countries in CA [36]. Furthermore, in relation to ecosystems, climate change can reduce genetic diversity [40]. For example, [41] report changes in the distribution of fish in southeast Mexico as a result of climate change. Despite these alarming changes, in the study region, there has been low response and adaptation measures to the extreme climate events, mainly due to a lack of information and high vulnerability in the social, institutional, and economic systems [3; 7; 8; 20; 25]. Nevertheless, the analysis of changes in regional hydroclimatic conditions is considered to be a key in reducing adverse effects on agriculture, environment, economy, society, and ecosystems [42]. General Circulation Models/Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have been used to reveal the climate change impacts in SM-YP, CA and the Caribbean [3; 43]. These models could be a great tool to provide information about climate change impacts. These models have been developed by the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP), in the CMIP3 [44] and CMIP5 [45]. Ref. [46] demonstrate that the CMIP5 models have better performance for tropical regions from the CMIP3. For this reason, the present study shows historic analyses of climate variables with the climate regional drivers. In addition, this study uses the mean trends of temperature and precipitation in the historical period (1960-2016) and their projections for the periods of 2015-2039 and 2075-2099, from the CMIP5 models in the SM-YP, CA and Caribbean region, in order to determine the most probable scenario. This study is carried out in 17 locations in the region, close to large cities, in order to study the impacts of climate change in these areas.