## 4 Results
### Sensitivity Analysis
#### 4.1.4 Statistical Analysis of the Simulation Results
LP comes second, with confidence intervals increasing to [1555.51, 2069.05] when LP intensity is increased by 30%, demonstrating strong stability. The PTP and R&DSP also performed well, with a significant impact on indicator growth as policy intensity increased to medium to high intensity. The FSP is slightly lower than the previous measures, but it still has a positive impact. CPMP and PRRP are relatively weak, with limited mean increases and confidence interval changes under different enhancement scenarios, reflecting their positioning as supportive policies. In terms of the supply of PBs, the incentive effect of fiscal policy (FP) remains the most significant. Although the effect under the 10% increase scenario is not significant enough, when it increases by 20%, the confidence interval expands to [7208.90, 12,776.90], which is far higher than that of other policies. Under the 30% increase scenario, the confidence interval further increases significantly to [7261.30, 12,964.35], reflecting its substantial positive effect on the large-scale expansion of the PB market. LP also demonstrates strong incentive capabilities. When the intensity of LP increases by 30%, the confidence interval increases significantly, reaching [7255.83, 12,806.57]. PTP and R&DSP have shown stable performance under three levels of intensity, with strong auxiliary driving forces. FSP is at a mid-level. In contrast, CPMP and PRRP increase relatively slowly, with confidence intervals similar to the initial values. These two policies have limited direct impact on the supply of PBs. In terms of carbon emission reduction, different policies have significant differences in their driving ability for energy conservation and emission reduction in PB. The R&DSP \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Variables**} & \multirow{2}{*}{**Policies**} & **Rate of** & \multirow{2}{*}{**Mean Value**} & **Standard** & **Confidence** \\  & & **Increase** & & **Deviation** & **Interval (95\%)** \\ \hline \multirow{7}{*}{\begin{tabular}{c} Carbon emission \\ reduction \\ (10\({}^{4}\) ton) \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{7}{*}{\begin{tabular}{c} LP \\ PRRP \\ FP \\ FSP \\ FTP \\ R\&DSP \\ FP \\ R\&DSP \\ CPMP \\ \end{tabular} } & 685.98 & 61.90 & [564.66, 807.29] \\ \cline{2-5}  & LP & 693.51 & 62.53 & [570.96, 816.06] \\  & PRRP & 687.07 & 61.92 & [565.71, 808.43] \\  & FP & 692.06 & 62.50 & [569.57, 814.56] \\  & FSP & +10\% & 690.28 & 62.33 & [568.10, 812.45] \\  & PTP & 701.75 & 65.42 & [573.53, 829.96] \\  & R\&DSP & 704.92 & 64.41 & [578.67, 831.17] \\  & CPMP & 689.82 & 62.29 & [567.72, 811.91] \\ \hline \multirow{7}{*}{\
\begin{tabular}{c} Carbon emission \\ reduction \\ (10\({}^{4}\) ton) \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{7}{*}{
\begin{tabular}{c} LP \\ PRRP \\ FP \\ FP \\ FSP \\ PTP \\ R\&DSP \\ CPMP \\ \end{tabular} } & 701.54 & 63.09 & [577.88, 825.20] \\  & PRRP & 688.79 & 62.17 & [566.94, 810.64] \\  & FP & 702.77 & 64.56 & [576.23, 829.31] \\  & FSP & +20\% & 696.09 & [572.84, 819.35] \\  & PTP & 712.43 & 67.09 & [580.93, 843.94] \\  & R\&DSP & 724.14 & 66.67 & [593.47, 854.81] \\  & CPMP & 694.90 & 62.90 & [571.62, 818.18] \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 3: _Cont._has the best effect among all policies in the three intensity scenarios. When its intensity increases by 30%, the average carbon emission reduction reaches 7.4072 million tons, and the confidence interval also increases to [605.10, 876.33], demonstrating its key role in the low-carbon transformation of PB. PTP and FP are second, and when the policy intensity increases by 30%, the confidence interval is also significantly higher than the initial value. LP and FP also demonstrate good carbon emission reduction capabilities and have a specific synergistic emission reduction effect when policy intensity is increased. The marginal impact of CPMP and PRRP on reducing carbon emissions is relatively small. When their policy intensity increases by 30%, the mean is below 700, and their confidence intervals remain around the initial range.