## 3 Results
### Land Cover Model Summary
Moreover, these practices have become more challenging given the current limited use of fallows and diverse crop rotations on declining sizes of land holdings due to population pressures and lagging adjustments to government policies on land allocation [7]. The much larger increase (near doubling) in bare land for Dedza during 2009-2019 might also suggest increasing encroachment into the forest reserves and suggest the need for more protection and improved management, including the Dzalanyama Forest Reserve at the southwestern end [31]. The higher decline in the forest-mixed class in Dedza during 2009-2019 was mostly attributed to gains in agriculture, a trend also observed in previous studies. For example, local farmers contributed to an empirically observed decline in forest cover between 1999 and 2015 in Dedza due to agricultural expansion, and the use of forest products for fuelwood, charcoal production, and construction [10]. Although most of the remaining forested areas are confined to forest reserves, tree plantations, and mixed agro-forestry cropping systems are also common. It is notable that Ntcheu gained in forest areas during 2009-2019, possibly due to a combination of locally improved farming practices that incorporated tree planting and forest management. For instance, the 2009 Improved Forest Management for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme (IFMSLP, 2006-2009, and 2011-2015) supported communities in forest-based income-generating activities, including honey, timber, and firewood production through proper forest management [63]. Other recent efforts have enhanced the growth of highly vegetative and nitrogen-fixing legume crops such as pigeon peas as well as 'fertilizes' such as _Glirididia septum_, _Faidherbia albida_, _Seshania Seshan_ and _Tehrosia vogei_ in mixed cropping systems with the improvement of soil organic matter and crop cover as major objectives [64; 65]. The near linear increase in shrub-woodland areas that were dominant over the Ntcheu district (larger than 2.5 times increase during 2001-2019) suggests continuing disturbance and degradation of forest cover and succession or recovery, as also seen in earlier studies [33]. The shrub-woodland class is also prone to spectral signature similarity to built-up areas (grass-hatched, wood, mud, and tin housing and scattered trees in home gardens) and is prevalent in rural areas in Malawi [66]. Wetlands showed significant declines--by more than half--between 2001 (15%) and 2019 (7%) in Ntcheu. This phenomenon is also seen in a recent participatory mapping study aimed to facilitate discussions on how communities understand their landscapes, during which participants identified and mapped newly cultivated areas that used to be wetland areas [43]. Additionally, participants linked hotspots for land-cover types signifying degradation to the incidence of illegal land renting and changes in climate patterns affecting sustainable land management [43]. Similar studies across Africa reported the highest gains in land use were in agricultural land and most losses in grasslands and woodland and forests [22; 31; 60]. Land Change Modeling (LCM) between 2001 and 2019 revealed a dynamic landscape with significant projected land transitions to agriculture as influenced by the group of six variables. A previous study [10] showed comparable outcomes from land modeling in Dedza between 1991 and 2015, which local farmers attributed to proximity to roads and population growth. Distance from the water was locally perceived the least important driver [10]. Land transitions for Ntcheu appeared to occur along a longitudinal gradient; found mainly in western upland-plateau areas where land-cover losses to agriculture were more prevalent. Conversion to agriculture is an ongoing process; thus, fragmentation of the landscape is expected to continue in the future. Overall, there is no clear pattern of synoptic intensification across the sub-region, as agricultural land use remains persistent.