## 2 Methodology
### Weather Files
#### 2.4.2 Future Climate  
The effect of climate change was assessed for Lisbon since an increase in extreme rain events associated with strong winds is expected [26; 48]. Both scenario RCP 4.5 (mid-GHGs-emission scenario [49]) and scenario RCP 8.5 (high-GHGs-emission scenario [49]) and two future time frames: mid-21 st century (henceforward named _near future_, NF) and end of the 21 st century (henceforward named _far future_, FF) were taken into account. These future climate scenarios, named the _Representative Concentration Pathway_ (RCP) coupled to their respective radiative forcing at the end of the century [50], belong to the 5 th Assessment Report of the _Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change_ (IPCC) [51]. The weather files were obtained from Meteororm software, which is a meteorological database that can provide weather files for most of the world's locations for many of today's used building simulation software or solar energy applications [52]. The future meteorological conditions are obtained from complex models that account for many of the parameters that affect the environment and how they will evolve, such as the greenhouse gases emissions and changes in land use [49], while also accounting for their variance and \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Climates**} & \multicolumn{3}{c}{**Relative Humidity (\%)**} & \multicolumn{3}{c}{**Temperature (\({}^{\circ}\)C)**} \\ \cline{2-7}  & **Min.** & **Max.** & **Mean** & **Min.** & **Max.** & **Mean** \\ \hline Zurich & 17 & 100 & 78 & \(-\)12.7 & 30.2 & 8.3 \\ Essen & 25 & 100 & 78 & \(-\)9.7 & 30.2 & 9.5 \\ S. Francisco & 12 & 100 & 71 & 1.7 & 36.7 & 14.1 \\ Lisbon & 25 & 100 & 75 & 1.2 & 37.0 & 15.6 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 2: Exterior ambience conditions for the four simulated climates in Section 3.2. Minimum, maximum, and mean values for the relative humidity and temperature. the mitigation measures promoted throughout the studied period [53]. This, of course, leads to different future weather conditions, which are in a way accounted for by considering different RCP scenarios. Figure 4 shows the monthly averages and sums for Lisbon in terms of air temperature (Figure 4a) and relative humidity (Figure 4b), as well as precipitation (Figure 4c) and global radiation (Figure 4d) for the near past (NP), near future (NF), and far future (FF) for scenario RCP 4.5 and for the near future (NF) and far future (FF) for scenario RCP 8.5. It is visible that climate change is not responsible for significant modifications in terms of air relative humidity (Figure 4b) and global radiation (Figure 4d). The only slight variation in terms of relative humidity occurs in May, June, and July, with an average increase in relation to the near past of 0.6%. In contrast, a significant variation in the outdoor air temperature (Figure 4a) and precipitation (Figure 4c) is visible if we take climate change into account. In terms of temperature, an overall increase is expected (Figure 4a). The highest increase is obtained by RCP 8.5 at the end of the century (FF), which is understandable since this corresponds to the more pollutant scenario [49]. RCP 8.5 at the end of the century (FF) has an average increase of 3.2 \({}^{\circ}\)C in relation to the near past. This is followed by RCP 4.5 at the end of the century (FF) with average increase of 1.7 \({}^{\circ}\)C and RCP 8.5 in the middle of the century (NF) with average increase of 1.5 \({}^{\circ}\)C. Finally, the lowest increase corresponds to RCP 4.5 at mid-century (NF), which has an average increase of 1.0 \({}^{\circ}\)C.  
In relation to precipitation, the differences are more pronounced in the rainy season, whilst in the warm period of the year, the differences are obviously less significant due to  
Figure 4: Outdoor climate overview for Lisbon in the near past (NP), near future (NF), and far future (FF) for scenario RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for air temperature (**a**), relative humidity (**b**), precipitation (**c**), and global radiation (**d**).