## 2 Materials and Methods
### Variables  
A total of 100 variables were included into the analysis (Table 1). Variables were selected based on a combination of expert knowledge and availability. All variables, with the exception of contextual game information, were derived from three sources, STATS Viewer, STATS Dynamix and STATS Edge, all offered by STATS Perform. Data regarding the teams' playing styles and Expected Goals were derived from STATS Edge. Definitions on Playing Styles and the calculation of Expected Goals can be found on the website of STATS Perform ([[https://www.statsperform.com](https://www.statsperform.com)]([https://www.statsperform.com](https://www.statsperform.com)), accessed on 28 June 2020). Physical game data was available at STATS Dynamix. The default speed, acceleration and deceleration thresholds for physical data were used, including the minimum effort duration of 0.5 s set for variables related to speed, accelerations and deceleration. All other variables, with the exception of contextual game information, were derived from STATS Viewer. Inside the STATS Viewer software, the user can derive its own metrics, based on criteria such as destination and direction. Direction could be set in three different directions, all relative to the opponent's goal. A ball played in an angle of \(-45^{\circ}\) to \(+45^{\circ}\)was defined as forward, backwards was defined if the ball was played in an angle from \(-135^{\circ}\) to \(+135^{\circ}\) relative to the opponent's goal. Balls played in an angle of \(+45^{\circ}\) to \(+135^{\circ}\), and \(-45^{\circ}\) to \(-135^{\circ}\) were defined as sideways. Contextual variables were obtained from other sources. ELO-ratings were included as a measure of team strength, provided by the API of [[http://www.clubelo.com](http://www.clubelo.com)]([http://www.clubelo.com](http://www.clubelo.com)), accessed on 1 July 2020, which is freely available. This source provides ELO-ratings for each team of over 50 (inter)national leagues, including the UEFA Europa League and Champions League, and has previously been used for scientific purposes (Zhou, 2023; Zhou, 2023). Each game, both national and international, results in an exchange in ELO-points (Equation (1)), where \(dr\) is the difference in ELO-rating between two clubs and \(R\) is the result (1 for win, 0.5 for draw and 0 for loss). The exchange in ELO-points is higher for a win against a stronger team compared to a victory against an equally strong or weaker team, and vice versa for losses. This equation was derived from [[http://www.clubelo.com](http://www.clubelo.com)]([http://www.clubelo.com](http://www.clubelo.com)), accessed on 1 July 2020. \[\Delta ELO=(R-\frac{1}{10^{(-dr/400)}+1})20 \tag{1}\]  
Form was defined as the difference in a clubs' current ELO-rating compared to the ELO-rating before their previous game. Market values, ages and nationalities were obtained from [[https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk](https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk)]([https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk](https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk)), accessed on 1 July 2020. These variables were previously used by ([PERSON], 2023) for scientific purposes. Lastly, the number of days between games was used as a variable, also including other competitive games such as cup and European