## 2 Driverless Car Technology and the Organ Donor Supply
### Expected Dilution of Supply Following Introduction of Driverless Cars  
In 2008, 100,800 solid organ transplants occurred worldwide according to WHO data on 104 countries comprising 90% of global population--69,400 kidney transplants; 20,200 liver transplants; 5400 heart transplants; 3400 lung transplants; and 2400 pancreas transplants [32; 33]. As of 2015, that number stood at 126,670 organ transplantations worldwide [34]. At that rate of growth--2.3% per annum--280,672 transplants will occur worldwide in the year 2050. However, in the United States alone, the need for donor kidneys is rising at a rate of 8% per year [35]. As the world's population ages and medical technology offers longer lives to a greater percentage of the global population, the increased need for transplant donors will stretch the resources of market supply to the breaking point. The impact of driverless cars may be that breaking point. The full adoption of driverless cars by 2050 is expected to reduce the number of highway accidents by as much as 90%. Currently, 15-20% of organ donations come from highway fatalities. At this rate, the adoption of driverless cars would result in a decline of 14-18% in the supply of organs for transplant in the United States. The chart below considers the impact at various rates of adoption (Table 2). Figure 3: Public concern with autonomous vehicles remains an industry concern. Figure adapted from [[https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/](https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/)]([https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/](https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/)). Beyond the loss of donors, every patient that must continue to wait for a transplant entails further cost for medical care while waiting for an organ transplant. Below is a three-year chart of cumulative hemodialysis costs for patients based on the diminution of kidney donors given the average current wait time of 3.6 years (Table 3) [36]. When reviewing these numbers, also consider that a 2016 hemodialysis cost of $89,000 USD will equal $261,433 USD in 2050 dollars based on the 3.22% historic average rate of inflation [33]. This is 2.93 times greater or nearly a tripling of prices. Further, consider that at the current rate of 8% yearly increase in need for kidney transplant versus 2.3% increase in transplant operations that the likely overall cost to the global health care system will be significantly larger than these numbers currently can project. Also, bear in mind that 80% of all hemodialysis costs are currently paid for by the already severely stretched MEDICARE system. Currently, the cost to MEDICARE is $32 billion USD; factoring in inflation and the rising number of end stage renal disease (ESRD) patients in 2050, that cost in the United States will likely rise to several hundred billion dollars [33; 35]. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c} \hline \hline
**\% Car Accidents. ** & **25\% Adoption** & **50\% Adoption** & **75\% Adoption** & **90\% Adoption** \\ \hline
12.5\% & \(-\)3.125\% & \(-\)6.25\% & \(-\)9.375\% & \(-\)11.25\% \\
15\% & \(-\)3.75\% & \(-\)7.5\% & \(-\)11.25\% & \(-\)13.5\% \\
17.5\% & \(-\)4.375\% & \(-\)8.75\% & \(-\)13.125\% & \(-\)15.75\% \\
20\% & \(-\)5\% & \(-\)10\% & \(-\)15\% & \(-\)18\% \\ \hline \multicolumn{4}{c}{**DIMINUTION in KIDNEYS 1 (Based on WHO data for 2015 in United States). **} \\ \hline
**\% Car Accidents** & **25\% Adoption** & **50\% Adoption** & **75\% Adoption** & **90\% Adoption** \\ \hline
12.5\% & \(-\)811 & \(-\)1621 & \(-\)2432 & \(-\)2918 \\
15\% & \(-\)973 & \(-\)1945 & \(-\)2918 & \(-\)3502 \\
17.5\% & \(-\)1135 & \(-\)2270 & \(-\)3404 & \(-\)4085 \\
20\% & \(-\)1297 & \(-\)2594 & \(-\)3891 & \(-\)4669 \\ \multicolumn{4}{c}{**DIMINUTION in LIVERS (Based on WHO data for 2015 in United States).