## 5 Results and Discussions
### Climatic Factor and Pernafrost Thawing  
Assessing the impact of climatic factors and permafrost thawing on the stability of moraine sediment dams is vital for evaluating potential hazards in high-altitude glacier regions. Moraine sediment dams, created from debris deposited by glaciers, are crucial for impounding glacial lakes. However, their stability is increasingly compromised by climate change and the consequent thawing of permafrost. Several studies have shown that mountain permafrost is deteriorating due to rising global temperatures [41]. As air temperatures continue to increase and solar radiation intensifies, the extent of frozen ground is expected to shrink, leading to further warming of alpine permafrost. This will significantly impact mountain communities, regional economies, and alpine ecosystems [42]. Climate change is projected to have considerable effects on regional hydrology, geomorphology, and ecology across the high mountain regions of Asia. As a result of the potential threat of rising temperatures on moraine stability, existing strength and potential disintegration of natural dams are uncertain [43; 44], but dam stability considering potentially thawing permafrost and ice cores also remains a concern  
The climate analysis for the Gurudongmar Lake region, located in a high-altitude cold environment, reveals significant trends over the past three decades. The maximum recorded daily temperature in the area was 12.19 \({}^{\circ}\)C, while the average maximum temperature was \(-\)1.46 \({}^{\circ}\)C. In contrast, the lowest maximum temperature observed was \(-\)20.73 \({}^{\circ}\)C, typical of the harsh winter conditions. The lowest recorded daily temperature was \(-\)28.52 \({}^{\circ}\)C, with an average minimum temperature of \(-\)8.55 \({}^{\circ}\)C (Figure 7). Precipitation data from the study period show a maximum daily precipitation of 58.6 mm and an average daily precipitation of 2.94 mm, indicating a generally cold and dry climate. During the first decade of the study (1994 to 2003), the average number of days with temperatures below 0 \({}^{\circ}\)C was 313.7 days. This number remained relatively stable in the second decade (2004 to 2013), averaging 314 days. However, in the most recent decade (2014 to 2023), the average number of subzero \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l l l l l} \hline \hline
**S. No.** & **Parameters Analysed** & \begin{tabular}{l} **Submerged Base** \\ **Level of the Dam** \\ \end{tabular} & \
\begin{tabular}{l} **5 m Above the Base** \\ **Level** \\ \end{tabular} &
\begin{tabular}{l} **10 m Above the Base** \\ **Level** \\ \end{tabular} \\ \hline \multicolumn{5}{c}{AB section} \\ \hline
1 & Total displacement (m) & 1.25 & 1.25 & 1.25 \\ \hline
2 & Volumetric strain (\%) & 1.64 & 1.65 & 1.65 \\ \hline
3 & Shear strain (\%) & 2.09 & 2.09 & 2.12 \\ \hline
4 & Deviatoric stress (\(\mathrm{kN/m^{2}}\)) & 586 & 577.80 & 567.10 \\ \hline \multicolumn{5}{c}{CD section} \\ \hline
1 & Total displacement (m) & 18.72 & 18.74 & 18.71 \\ \hline
2 & Volumetric strain (\%) & 9.35 & 9.36 & 9.35 \\ \hline
3 & Shear strain (\%) & 30.25 & 30.30 & 30.22 \\ \hline
4 & Deviatoric stress (\(\mathrm{kN/m^{2}}\)) & 1721 & 1719 & 1699 \\ \hline \multicolumn{5}{c}{EF section} \\ \hline
1 & Total displacement (m) & 24.67 & 24.67 & 24.67 \\ \hline
2 & Volumetric strain (\%) & 6.88 & 6.88 & 6.88 \\ \hline
3 & Shear strain (\%) & 87.06 & 87.07 & 87.06 \\ \hline
4 & Deviatoric stress \(\mathrm{kN/m^{2}}\)) & 2176 & 2177 & 2160 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 2: Variations in the displacement, stress, and strain in AB, CD, and EF dams in three critical scenarios. days decreased to 305.3 days (Table 3). This reduction signifies a warming trend, with fewer days experiencing temperatures below freezing. Minimum temperatures have increased from \(-\)9.23 \({}^{\circ}\)C in 1994 to \(-\)6.89 \({}^{\circ}\)C in 2021, and maximum temperatures have risen from \(-\)1.76 \({}^{\circ}\)C in 1994 to \(-\)0.25 \({}^{\circ}\)C in 2021 (Table 4 and Figure 8).