# Multiscenario Simulation and Prediction of Land Use in Huaibei City Based on CLUE-S and PLUS Models
## 3 Results
### Multiscenario Simulation of Land Use Change in Huaibei City, 2020-2025
#### 3.4.2 Multiscenario Simulation under PLUS Model  
The calculated future LU demand under multiple scenarios was input into the PLUS model with the status LU map in 2020 as the base map, and the remaining parameters were modified. The LU patterns of the study area in 2025 under multiple scenarios generated by the CARS module are shown in Figure 5.  
Farmland expansion is primarily influenced by factors such as DEM, GDP, and POP. Typically, areas that are farther away from urban centers and have relatively flat terrain are preferred for farmland expansion. The south and north of the study area meet the requirements for the expansion of farmland. Construction land is strongly influenced by economic factors, so it will be clustered toward the densely populated areas in the simulation result map. As in the scenario FEP, farmland is more in the south and north of the study area, while the construction land is clustered inward. The expansion of grassland and forestland is mainly determined by location factors, such as DEM. In general, their expansion occurs in high-elevation areas that are far from major roads. The water is mainly influenced by DEM, and its expansion generally occurs in the low-elevation area. As in the scenario EP, the transition of forestland and grassland occurs in the northwest and east of high elevation, and water occurs in the low-elevation area between two forestlands. Figure 5: PLUS simulation results of LU pattern evolution under four scenarios in Huaibei. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Scenario Analysis** & **Farmland** & **Forestland** & **Grassland** & **Water** & **Construction Land** \\ \hline NG & 40,575.06 & 918.63 & 9126.72 & 4130.46 & 17,901.36 \\ FP & 44,128.44 & 817.47 & 8391.06 & 3525.93 & 15,789.33 \\ EP & 41,801.85 & 1306.35 & 8981.10 & 4181.40 & 16,381.53 \\ FEP & 43,986.78 & 1306.35 & 8245.44 & 3576.96 & 15,536.70 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 5: LU demand under different scenarios in 2025 (hm\({}^{2}\)). Under scenario NG, the spatial distribution of LU type does not differ much from the status map in 2020. The area of water increases in the central part of the study area, and the construction land continues to expand to the surrounding area. The area of farmland and forestland continues to show a decreasing trend compared with the status map in 2020. Farmland decreases by 1683.81 hm\({}^{2}\) and forestland decreases by 301.50 hm\({}^{2}\), which are 3.98% and 24.71%, respectively, compared to 2020. Furthermore, the area of construction land increases by 362.7 hm\({}^{2}\), which is 2.06% compared with 2020. This indicates that the rate of loss of forestland is faster and the increase in construction land is gradually moderated under scenario NG. The reduction in farmland will lead to a threat to food security and the reduction in forestland will lead to ecological damage, thus making socioeconomic development less sustainable. Under scenario FP, the farmland patches become larger. The patches of construction land become smaller and more compact in the middle. The largest increase in farmland is observed, with an increase of 1869.57 hm\({}^{2}\) compared to 2020. The area of forestland is less than in the NG scenario, with a decrease of 402.66 hm\({}^{2}\). Grassland decreases by 34.92 hm\({}^{2}\). The water increases by 317.34 hm\({}^{2}\) but decreases by 604.53 hm\({}^{2}\) compared to the NG scenario. The construction land decreases by 1749.33 hm\({}^{2}\), while grassland, water, and construction land increase under the NG scenario, indicating that most of the increase in these LU types comes from farmland. In the EP scenario, the northwestern part of the study area is occupied by part of the construction land due to the outward expansion of water and forestland. Some grassland was also converted to forestland in the east. The EP scenario controls the loss of farmland area. The area of forestland, grassland, and water increased.