## 4 Results and Discussion
### Probability of Strong Earthquake (Ms \(\geq\) 7) Occurrence in the Next 100 Years  
According to the probability distribution function (2) fitted in this paper and the probability distribution function (5) suitable for all active faults in mainland China, we combine the elapsed time and average recurrence interval of the last earthquake for Maqin-Maqu segments in the Eastern Kunlun active fault zone and calculate the conditional probability of earthquake recurrence in the future 20 years, 50 years, and 100 years after 2023 for different segments of this fault zone (Table 2).  
In 1984, [PERSON] et al. [29] analyzed the probability of seismic risk and proposed that recurrence probabilities in the range of 0-10% are considered low; recurrence probabilities in the range of 11-49% are considered intermediate probability events; and recurrence probabilities in the range of 50-100% are considered high probability events. Given the recurrence probabilities calculated in Table 2, the recurrence probability of the Maqu segment in the next 100 years indicates an intermediate probability event, and the Maqin indicates low probability events.  
Finally, we find that a comparison result between the probability density function fitted in this study and the conditional probability values calculated using commonly used generic functions reveals that the generic recurrence probability function becomes less sensitive to the dependent variable P (conditional probability) with an increase in the independent variable \(t/R\) compared to the fitted function proposed in this paper.  
Joint Probability of the Occurrence of Strong Earthquake with Magnitude Ms \(\geq\) 7 in the Next 100 Years  
According to the aforementioned recurrence probability of different fault segments in Table 2 (i.e., the fitting function used in this paper), we calculate the joint probability for the occurrence of at least one large earthquake in the Maqin-Maqu segment of the Eastern Kunlun active fault zone in the future:  
\[P=1-(1-P1)\times(1-P2).\ldots\]  
\(P1\), \(P2\) are the probabilities for the occurrence of an earthquake in the Maqin segment and Maqu segment of the Eastern Kunlun fault.  
Table 3 shows that the probability for the occurrence of a strong earthquake in the next 20 years in the east segment of the Eastern Kunlun fault zone is low, and the probabilities for the occurrence of an earthquake in the next 50 and 100 years are intermediate. The  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Name of Segment**} & **Elapsed Time** & **Average** & **Relationship** & **(Ms \(\geq\) 7)** & **Conditional Probability \(P\) (\%)** \\  & **since Last** & **Interal of Ancient** & **Classification** & **Distribution** & **2023–2043** & **2023–2073** & **2023–2123** \\  & **Earthquake (R)** & **Earthquake (R)** & **of Risk** & **Function** & **(\(\Delta t\) = 20)** & **(\(\Delta t\) = 50)** & **(\(\Delta t\) = 100)** \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{Maqin} & \multirow{2}{*}{977–1090a} & \multirow{2}{*}{1765 a} & \multirow{2}{*}{B} & (2) & 0.82–1.00\% & 2.09–2.56\% & 4.33–5.27\% \\ \cline{4-4} \cline{6-6}  & & & & (5) & 1.11–1.19\% & 2.65–2.72\% & 5.19–5.34\% \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{Maqu} & \multirow{2}{*}{1210 \(\pm\) 40a} & \multirow{2}{*}{1465 a} & \multirow{2}{*}{A} & (2) & 2.26\% & 5.70\% & 11.47\% \\ \cline{4-4} \cline{6-6}  & & & & (5) & 1.19 & 2.95 & 5.77 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 2: Conditional probability of strong earthquake recurrence in the future 20 years, 50 years, and 100 years for Maqin–Maqu segment of the Eastern Kunlun active fault zone (calculated from 2023).  
probabilities in Table 3 likely represent only the minimum probability values of this active fault zone. Because the data for ancient earthquakes are likely somewhat inadequate, such as the lack of certain active events, they overestimate the recurrence interval and the value of elapsed time.