## 4 Results
### Climate Change Scenarios (Analysis II)  
In order to consider the implications of climate change scenarios on airport runway pavement design, Analysis II focused on 20- and 40-year time horizons. To this end, the required parameters included the average annual air temperature (aka Annual Mean Temperature or AMT), the air Freezing Index (FI) and Thawing Index (TI), soil geotechnical inputs, soil thermal conductivity inputs, and the air-surface transfer coefficient. These parameters were gathered for the sites of interest as summarized by Tables 5 and 6. Historical values of the annual mean temperature and air freezing/thawing indexes were calculated from data available at the Government of Canada website, considering the years from 2012 to 2021 (10-year average) [16]. The climate predictions for the years 2041 and 2061 were obtained through the Climate Atlas of Canada website [18]. The primary source of Climate Atlas of Canada models is the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Soil Type** & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**Coarse**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**Fine**} \\ \hline
**Method** & **MTO** & **MTQ** & **TCCA** & **MTO** & **MTQ** & **TCCA** \\ \hline Min. & 0\% & 7\% & 5\% & 6\% & 1\% & 4\% \\ Max. & 28\% & 44\% & 20\% & 18\% & 3\% & 27\% \\ Standard Deviation & 10\% & 13\% & 5\% & 6\% & 1\% & 11\% \\ Average Difference & 20\% & 28\% & 21\% & 12\% & 2\% & 14\% \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 4: Comparison between methods with reference to the measured field data. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Airport** & **AMT \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\)** & **AMT \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\)** & **AMT \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\)TI** & **FI/\({}^{\blacktriangledown}\)TI** & **FI/\({}^{\blacktriangledown}\)TI** & **Temp.** & **Temp.** \\  & **2041** & **2061** & **FI/\({}^{\blacktriangledown}\)TI** & **2041** & **2061** & **Change** & **Change** \\ \hline Toronto (YYZ) & 9 & 11 & 12 & 426 & 252 & 166 & 2 & 3 \\ Montreal (YUL) & 8 & 9 & 10 & 758 & 551 & 420 & 1 & 2 \\ Quebec (YQB) & 5 & 6 & 8 & 1144 & 818 & 642 & 1 & 3 \\ Calgary (YYC) & 5 & 6 & 7 & 857 & 754 & 675 & 1 & 2 \\ Regina (YQR) & 3 & 5 & 6 & 1560 & 1231 & 1105 & 2 & 3 \\ Winnipeg (YWG) & 3 & 5 & 7 & 1674 & 1317 & 1133 & 2 & 4 \\ Yellowknife (YZF) & \(-4\) & \(-1\) & 0 & 1860 \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\) & 2099 \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\) & 3273 \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\) & 3 & 4 \\ Igaluit (YFB) & \(-8\) & \(-6\) & \(-4\) & 666 \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\) & 1015 \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\) & 1355 \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\) & 2 & 4 \\ Baker Lake (YBK) & \(-10\) & \(-7\) & \(-6\) & 986 \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\) & 1474 \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\) & 1639 \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\) & 3 & 4 \\ Cambridge Bay (YCB) & \(-13\) & \(-10\) & \(-8\) & 683 \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\) & 1035 \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\) & 1310 \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\) & 3 & 5 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular} \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\) AMT, Annual Mean Temperature (\({}^{\blacktriangledown}\)C); FI, Freezing Index (\({}^{\blacktriangledown}\)C-days); \({}^{\blacktriangledown}\) TI, Thawing Index (\({}^{\blacktriangledown}\)C-days); Temp. Change, Temperature Change (\({}^{\blacktriangledown}\)C).  
\end{table} 
Table 5: Average annual air temperature and air freezing index. which has projections of daily temperature data from an ensemble of 24 climate models using two carbon emission scenarios, a \"Low Carbon\" (i.e., RCP 4.5) and a \"High Carbon\" (i.e., RCP 8.5) future scenario. This research considered the ensemble mean of emission scenario RCP 8.5 to perform the climate change simulations. There is a large amount of uncertainty in climate model projections, because the future concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere is not fully known or predictable in a deterministic manner. For this reason, Canada's Changing Climate Report requires that no likelihoods should be ascribed to the RCP scenarios, as they are all deemed plausible [1].