## 3 Results
### Vegetation Directional Persistence  
Directional persistence varied spatially across southern Africa and across seasons (Figure 3a,b, all values of persistence; and Figure 3c,d, significant values only). In DJF there was a strong positive trend in the western portion of southern Africa, most strongly in Namibia and Angola. The area near the borders of South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Zambia also had a very strong positive trend in persistence, which is one of the largest transfrontier conservation areas in southern Africa. The most northern region of the study area had neutral persistence. In eastern Mozambique and western Angola there was a weak negative trend in persistence.  
In MAM there was more neutral persistence across this landscape. In northeastern Namibia and in the Kalahari (western Namibia and South Africa), there were strong positive persistence trends. The corner area where the borders of South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe meet, as well as in central-northern Mozambique, there were strong negative trends. In southwestern Angola and western central South Africa there were also some negative trends. These trends across seasons may be related to the NDVI factors in the first part of this study, such as precipitation. Further investigation is needed to determine if there is a change in precipitation timing or amount during this study period.  
The percentages of significant positive and negative persistence for parks and buffers for each of the three park size classes and two seasons are represented in Figure 4a,b. These figures highlight only significant persistence and do not account for nonsignificant persistence and therefore do not add up  
Figure 3: Directional persistence mapped across southern Africa in (**a**) all values in December, January, February; (**b**) all values in March, April, May; (**c**) significant values in December, January, February; and (**d**) significant values in March, April, May.  
to 100%. Across the wet season (Figure 4a,b), in parks and buffer zones, there is an overwhelming significant positive persistence trend. The parks and buffer zones had higher percentages of positive persistence (20%-31%) and lower percentages of negative persistence (3%-4%) in DJF compared to MAM. In MAM, positive persistence ranged from 13% to 26% and negative persistence ranged from 5% to 10%. When comparing parks with buffer zones, in DJF, small and medium parks had higher percentages of positive persistence than buffer zones. Large parks/buffers had similar percentages of positive persistence. In DJF, small and medium parks had lower percentages of negative persistence than buffer zones, while large parks/buffers had similar percentages of negative persistence. When comparing parks with buffer zones, in MAM, small, medium, and large parks had higher percentages of positive persistence than buffer zones. In MAM, small, medium, and large parks had a lower percentage of negative persistence than buffer zones.  
Figure 4: Percentage of significant positive and negative directional persistence values across small, medium, and large parks and buffers in (**a**) December, January, February and (**b**) March, April, May.