# Evolutionary Game Analysis of Power Generation Groups Considering Energy Price Fluctuation
## 5 Case Analysis
### Primary Energy Price Fluctuation and Power Generation Cost Analysis  
In recent years, affected by multiple factors, the price of primary energy in China has always been in a state of high volatility. The trend of coal prices from May 2020 to June 2021 is shown in Figure 3[21; 22; 23]. The coal price index adopts the Yangtze River Steam-Coal Price Index (YRSPI), Ordos Steam-Coal Price Index (OSPI), and Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Spot Price Index (BSSPI). Affected by the international epidemic, the phased mismatch between supply and demand has led to greater volatility in the thermal coal market in the past year than before. As can be seen from Figure 3, the overall coal price remained relatively stable before the winter of 2020, and the peak season of winter coal consumption in November and December combined with tight market supply, making thermal coal prices continue to rise; in early 2021, with the implementation of national control measures, the bearish market sentiment is strong, causing coal prices to turn around and fall. Since March, the economic situation has continued to improve, and energy demand has increased. The construction of infrastructure projects in various places has been started one after another, and the power consumption of cement and steel coal has been strong, causing the market price of thermal coal to continue to rise. The natural gas price trend from May 2020 to June 2021 is shown in Figure 4[24; 25]. The natural gas price has strong seasonal characteristics. In July and August, the domestic heating demand decreased, natural gas entered the off-season of consumption, and the ex-factory price status was stable. Gas prices rise to annual highs during the winter peak of  
Figure 3: May 2020-June 2021 Coal price trend. gas consumption. The recent international epidemic has led to a decline in global natural gas purchasing enthusiasm, and the CIF price of natural gas has fallen steadily. This paper takes the coastal areas of the Yangtze River Delta as the research background and selects the Yangtze River Steam-Coal Price Index and CIF price of imported LNG as the primary energy price for coal-fired and gas-fired power generation groups. The tax rate and other energy parameters are set, as shown in Table 5. From Equations (18)-(23) and Table 5, the trend of coal-fired and gas-fired power generation costs from July 2020 to June 2021 can be obtained, as shown in Figure 5.  
Simulation Analysis of Power Generation Group Bidding Game Considering Primary Energy Price Fluctuation  
This section mainly takes the change in the marginal cost of power generation caused by the fluctuation of the primary energy price in the last section as the background and analyzes the evolutionary game equilibrium under the influence of multiple factors through several calculation examples. Parameters that remain the same for all of the following situations are the total demand for the electricity market \(Q_{DM}\), the cost bidding coefficient of coal-fired power generation groups \(\mu_{coal}\), the strategic bidding coefficient of coal-fired power generation groups \(\
u_{coal}\), the cost bidding coefficient of gas-fired power generation groups \(\mu_{gas}\), the strategic bidding coefficient of gas-fired power generation groups \(\
u_{gas}\). These parameters are set as follows: \(Q_{DM}=10000\) MW, \(\mu_{coal}=\mu_{gas}=1.1\), \(\
u_{coal}=\
u_{gas}=1.3\). Taking the trend of coal-fired and gas-fired power generation costs from July 2020 to June 2021, as described in Figure 5 as the background, first of all, in scenario 1, that is, the power generation of coal-fired and gas-fired power generators participating in the market is each smaller than the market demand, and the total power generation of coal-fired and gas-fired power generators participating in the market is greater than the market demand. The parameters are set to: \(Q_{coal,1}\sim Q_{coal,5}=1000\) MW; \(Q_{coal,6}\sim Q_{coal,8}=600\) MW; \(Q_{coal,9}\sim Q_{coal,12}=300\) MW; \(Q_{gas,1}\sim Q_{gas,10}=300\) MW; \(Q_{gas,11}\sim Q_{gas,20}=200\) MW.