## 4 Results
### Sensitivity Analysis  
To clarify the impact trends of the TGC quota ratio and carbon emission cap target on relevant factors under policy adjustments, this study adjusted the initial values of the TGC quota ratio and carbon emission cap target by reducing them by 30%, reducing them by 10%, increasing them by 10%, and increasing them by 30%, respectively. Analyze the impact of changes in policy incentives on variables such as TGC price, CET price, electricity sale price, carbon emissions, new installed capacity of fossil fuel power generation, and new installed capacity of renewable energy power generation. The simulation results of sensitivity analysis are shown in Figure 7.  
Figure 7a-f are sensitivity analyses of the economic situation. Firstly, regarding the impact of TGC price, there is a significant positive correlation between the TGC quota ratio and the TGC price. The higher the TGC quota ratio, the faster the growth rate of the TGC price. The rise in TGC prices may indicate an increase in the marginal cost of clean energy. This will prompt power companies to increase investment in renewable energy projects to meet quota requirements and reduce future purchasing costs. The carbon emission cap target has a negative regulatory effect on TGC price, and as the carbon emission cap target decreases, the growth rate of TGC price accelerates. It is worth noting that when the carbon emission cap target increases by 10% or 30%, the difference in the impact on TGC price is not significant. The impact of changes in the TGC quota ratio on the CET price is not significant. The adjustment of the carbon emission cap target has a significant negative effect on CET price, especially when it decreases. Specifically, when the carbon emission cap targets are reduced by 30% and 10%, respectively, CET prices show a significant increase, and the growth rate accelerates significantly. This change will affect the decision-making process for the use of CET, stimulating high-carbon emission enterprises to invest in renewable energy projects to promote carbon emission reduction. When the carbon emission cap target increases by 10%, the CET price increases slowly. When the carbon emission cap target increases by 30%, there is no upward trend in CET price. An excessively high carbon emission cap target may lead to a weakening of carbon market price signals, reducing the incentive for electric power enterprises to reduce emissions. At first, the adjustment of the TGC quota ratio had a limited impact on the electricity sale price. With the development of renewable energy generation technology, the TGC quota ratio is starting to have a slight impact on the electricity sale price. However, only when the TGC quota ratio decreases by 30% will it significantly affect the electricity sales price and promote further decline in the \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Variables** & **Change Stage** & **Time** & **Sample Size** & **Mean Value** & \
\begin{tabular}{c} **Standard** \\ **Deviation** \\ \end{tabular} &
\begin{tabular}{c} **Confidence** \\ **Interval (95\%)** \\ \end{tabular} \\ \hline \multirow{3}{*}{TGC price} & Stationary phase & 0–44 & 45 & 30 & 0 & [30; 30] \\  & Fluctuating stage & 45–85 & 41 & 67.34 & 12.58 & [64.81, 70.87] \\  & Stationary phase & 86–120 & 35 & 100 & 0 & [100, 100] \\ \hline \multirow{3}{*}{CET price} & Stationary phase & 0–24 & 25 & 0.01 & 0 & [0.01, 0.01] \\  & Fluctuating stage & 25–105 & 81 & 0.065 & 0.005 & [0.054, 0.076] \\  & Stationary phase & 106–120 & 15 & 0.2 & 0 & [0.2, 0.2] \\ \hline \multirow{3}{*}{Electricity sale price} & Fluctuating stage & 0–105 & 106 & 0.555 & 0.034 & [0.548, 0.562] \\  & Stationary phase & 106–120 & 15 & 0.32 & 0 & [0.32, 0.32] \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 3: Confidence intervals for the key price indicators. electricity sales price. In contrast, the impact of the carbon emission cap target on electricity sale prices is more significant.