## 2 Study Area  
After reviewing the literature, five bellwether sites were selected around the world where landslide activities are most sensitive to climate change and long-term, systematic observations could be obtained: Fairweather Range, North America; Northern Patagonia Icefield, South America; European Alps, Europe; Karakoram, Asia; and Aoraki/Mount Cook, Oceania [38]. In this study, we used Taxkorgan County, which is located in the eastern Pamir Plateau and the Karakoram, China, as the study area (Figure 1a) to study landslide susceptibility. This area is characterized by sparse vegetation [39], and extensive glaciers and permafrost (Figure 1c). These provide favorable conditions for landslides. In Taxkorgan County, from 2000 to 2019, there were a total of 258 landslides (138 slides and 120 debris flows) with areas greater than or equal to 0.5 km2 (Figure 1b), which were identified using historical archives, visual interpretations of Google Earth satellite images, optical image contrast, and field investigations. Overall, 90% of the large-sized debris flows induced by snow melting, glacier retreating, and freeze-thawing resulting from rising temperatures were concentrated in the area above the snow line, which is covered by glaciers and permafrost all year round (Figure 1c,d). In contrast, the small-sized slides (73.2%) were widespread in the region below the snow line and were triggered by rainfall [6].  
In the past, the climate in Taxkorgan County has exhibited a warming and wetting trend, which has manifested as a result of increases in the temperature and maximum precipitation (Figure 2a) [40]. Spatially, the temperature and precipitation have exhibited elevation-dependent warming and wetting trends (Figure 1d). That is, the temperature and precipitation trends are amplified at higher elevations, especially in the region above the snow line (elevation of 4076.3 m). According to Figure 1d, the torrential rainfall has been primarily distributed in areas with elevations of less than 4000 m.  
In climate scenario SSP1-2.6, the climate in the region continues to become warmer and wetter before 2060, exhibiting a positive warming rate and increasing precipitation  
Figure 1: Overview of the study area. **(a)** The location of Taxkorgan County; **(b)** temporal distribution of landslides over the past 20 years; **(c)** spatial distribution of landslides. The photos were taken during field investigations; **(d)** landslide size, days of torrential rainfall, and trends in climate within different elevation intervals (revised from the literature [5; 6]).  
trend (Figure 2b). Notably, the future rate of change in the temperature above the snow line (0.29 \({}^{\circ}\)C/decade) is slightly higher than the past rate of change (0.28 \({}^{\circ}\)C/decade), while the future warming rate below the snow line (0.25 \({}^{\circ}\)C/decade) is lower than the past warming rate in this region. The precipitation above the snow line in the region is greater than that below the snow line. However, compared to the trend of the maximum precipitation in this region in the past (7.63 mm/decade), the precipitation in the region, especially below the snow line (1.08 mm/decade), will decrease significantly in the future.