# Forewarning Model for Glacial Lake Outburst in Southeast Tibet
## 4 Discussion  
According to the equation of the probability of glacial lake outburst in southeast Tibet, with other factors remaining unchanged, the area of glacier lake, distance of the glacial lake from the glacier, slope of the glacier, and slope of the glacial tongue are all equally proportional to the probability of glacial lake outburst, indicating that when the above-mentioned index value is larger, the probability of glacial lake outburst is higher. When the slope of the glacier and slope of glacial tongue are large, the topography of the  
Figure 2: Receiver operating characteristic curve.  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**ID** & **Y/Observed** & **Y/Forecast** & **ID** & **Y/Observed** & **Y/Forecast** \\ \hline
1 & 1 & 1 & 11 & 0 & 0 \\
2 & 1 & 1 & 12 & 0 & 1 \\
3 & 1 & 1 & 13 & 0 & 0 \\
4 & 1 & 0 & 14 & 0 & 0 \\
5 & 1 & 0 & 15 & 0 & 0 \\
6 & 0 & 0 & 16 & 0 & 0 \\
7 & 0 & 0 & 17 & 0 & 0 \\
8 & 0 & 0 & 18 & 0 & 0 \\
9 & 0 & 0 & 19 & 0 & 0 \\
10 & 0 & 1 & 20 & 0 & 0 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 3: Calculated and actual values of outburst and non-outburst samples of glacial lakes in southeast Tibet.  
-glacier snow area shows greater fluctuations. The high and steep terrain provides potential energy conditions for glacial action. Higher slopes are more conducive to the accumulation and release of glacier energy in glacial lake areas. Relevant studies reported that the slope of glacier areas generally ranges between \(7^{\circ}\) and \(12^{\circ}\). Slopes greater than \(7^{\circ}\) are conducive to the occurrence of glacial lake outbursts. The steeper the glacial tongue slope, the more likely it is to fracture, leading to poor instability and the increase of water pressure on the terminal moraine dam [29; 30; 31]. The area of the glacial lake is also an important condition for the occurrence of a glacial lake outburst. The larger the area of the glacial lake, the greater the water storage capacity of the glacial lake, and the greater the hydrostatic pressure on the terminal moraine dam. Some researchers refer to glacial lakes with an area greater than 0.2 km\({}^{2}\) as large glacial lakes, which are dangerous [32]. The ratio between the height of the glacial lake from the top of the dam to the height of the dam and the area of the glacier are inversely proportional to the probability of glacial lake outburst. Therefore, the smaller the two indexes, the greater the probability of glacial lake outburst. In this study, the average area of outburst glacial lakes was 1.76 km\({}^{2}\), the average slope of the glacier tongue was \(13^{\circ}\), and the distance between the glacial lakes and the glacier was 0.028 km, which agree with the results of previous research. Regarding non-outburst glacial lakes, the average area of glacial lakes was 0.41 km\({}^{2}\), and the area of glacial lakes greater than 0.2 km\({}^{2}\) accounted for more than 50% of the total area. The average slope of the glacier tongue and glacier was \(11^{\circ}\), and most glacial lakes are at risk of outburst.  
Temperature and precipitation are also important factors affecting glacial lake outbursts. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the logistic regression predictive model based on climate variables [24; 33]. The number of prediction indicators selected will also affect the prediction results. [PERSON] et al. [25] put forward 18 prediction indexes for the evaluation of the risk of glacial lake outburst. [PERSON] et al. [34] evaluated landslide susceptibility using 11 prediction indexes. Therefore, more predictive indicators should be considered in future work [35]. In addition, due to the limited number of samples in the regression analysis and errors in the sample data, these factors will directly affect the evaluation effect of the model.