# Assessing the Probability of Winning a Point in Men's Padel: A Comprehensive Analysis
## 3 Results
### Analysis of the Probability of Winning a Point  
The following is a detailed analysis of the probability of winning a point in padel, taking into account several variables of the game. This analysis has focused exclusively on points played on the first serve as they accounted for approximately 90% of the total in this study (see Table 3). \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l l l l l l l l l} \hline \hline
**Criterion** & **Cat.** & **n** & **\%** & \(\chi^{2}\) & **Criterion** & **Cat.** & **n** & **\%** & \(\chi^{2}\) \\ \hline \multirow{3}{*}{Service *} & FS & 867 & 88.5 & \(\chi^{2}=582.252\) & \multirow{3}{*}{Winner} & SW & 581 & 59.3 & \(\chi^{2}=34.207\) \\  & SS & 112 & 11.4 & \(p<0.001\) & & & RW & 399 & 40.7 & \(p<0.001\) \\  & DF & 1 & 0.1 & & & & FHW & 117 & 11.9 & \(\chi^{2}=593.011\) \\ \hline \multirow{3}{*}{Rally length} & SH & 414 & 42.2 & \(\chi^{2}=34.525\) & \multirow{3}{*}{\begin{tabular}{l} BHW \\ \(\text{FHG}\) \\ \end{tabular} } & SH & 414 & 42.2 & \(\chi^{2}=34.525\) & \multirow{3}{*}{\begin{tabular}{l} BHW \\ \(\text{FHG}\) \\ \end{tabular} } & SH & 54 & 5.5 & \(p<0.001\) \\  & ND & 283 & 28.9 & \(p<0.001\) & & & FHG & 55 & 5.6 & \\ \hline \multirow{3}{*}{Strike zone *} & SZ1 & 220 & 22.4 & \(\chi^{2}=56.276\) & \multirow{3}{*}{Final Stroke} & FHV & 151 & 15.4 & \\  & SZ2 & 406 & 41.4 & \(p<0.001\) & & & BHV & 132 & 13.5 & \\  & SZ3 & 353 & 36.0 & & & & SM & 254 & 25.9 & \\  & SZ & 1 & 0.1 & & & TR & 107 & 10.9 & \\ \hline \multirow{3}{*}{The finish zone} & FST & 162 & 16.5 & \(\chi^{2}=182.236\) & \multirow{3}{*}{\begin{tabular}{l} DB \\ \(\text{FHG}\) \\ \end{tabular} } & FST & 126 & 16.5 & \(\chi^{2}=182.236\) & \multirow{3}{*}{\begin{tabular}{l} DB \\ \(\text{FHG}\) \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{3}{*}{\
\begin{tabular}{l} DB \\ \(\text{FHG}\) \\ \end{tabular} } & FST & 16 & 46 & 4.7 & \\  & MST & 124 & 12.7 & \(p<0.001\) & & & OT & 6 & 0.6 & \\  & CST & 262 & 26.7 & & & DS & 16 & 1.6 & \\  & SNC & 250 & 25.5 & & & & & & \\  & SSC & 73 & 7.4 & & & & & & \\  & SEC & 109 & 11.1 & & & & & & \\ \hline \multirow{3}{*}{Point ending} & SWW & 268 & 27.3 & \(\chi^{2}=230.113\) & \multirow{3}{*}{Point duration} & 1–10 s & 439 & 44.8 & \(\chi^{2}=287.698\) \\  & SWFE & 75 & 7.7 & \(p<0.001\) & & 11–20 s & 294 & 30.0 & \(p<0.001\) \\ \cline{1-1} \cline{3-6}  & SWUE & 268 & 27.3 & \(\chi^{2}=230.113\) & \multirow{3}{*}{
\begin{tabular}{l} DB \\ \(\text{FHG}\) \\ \end{tabular} } & FST & 21–30 s & 145 & 14.8 & \\  & SWFE & 75 & 7.7 & \(p<0.001\) & & 31+ & 102 & 10.4 & \\ \cline{1-1} \cline{3-6}  & SWUE & 237 & 24.2 & & & & & & \\ \cline{1-1} \cline{3-6}  & RWW & 154 & 15.7 & & & & & & \\ \cline{1-1} \cline{3-6}  & RWFE & 52 & 5.3 & & & & & \\ \cline{1-1} \cline{3-6}  & RWUE & 194 & 19.8 & & & & & & \\ \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 2: Distribution of points played in the World Padel Tour Menorca Master Final 2020 and \(\chi^{2}\) intra-criterion analysis. Firstly, our findings indicate that the serving team wins 71% of the points in short rallies (0-6 shots). This percentage decreases to 57% in medium-length rallies (6-12 shots) and further drops to 47% in long rallies (13+ shots). During a short rally, it is interesting to note that zone 3 is where you have the highest probability of winning a point, both on serve (82%) and on return (74%). In zone 2, the probabilities are somewhat lower in the service (74%) but considerably lower in the return (36%). Finally, in zone 1, the probabilities of winning the point are low in both pairs (4% for service and 0.5% for the return). In medium-length rallies, we see a similar pattern although the odds of winning the point vary. The final hit from zone 3 gives the highest odds to both the serving team (70%) and the receiving team (74%), followed by zone 2 (56% to the serve and 39% to the return) and, finally, zone 1 (20% and 13%, respectively). In the long rally, the same pattern is repeated. Zone 3 has the highest probability of success in both pairs (72% for service and 92% for the return), followed by zone 2 (60% and 61%) and finally zone 1 (20% and 35%).