# Physical Vulnerability and Landslide Risk Assessment in Tegucigalpa City, Honduras
## 3 Results
### Risk Estimation  
Table 4 summarizes the results of the population projected for 2020 and the economic value exposed to landslides in the study area. The projected total population for 2020 in the MCD is 1,345,117 inhabitants and 328,879 households. The number of inhabitants and houses exposed to landslides represent 12% and 11.5% of the total population and housing, respectively. The total value of MCD homes exposed to landslides is estimated at USD 1255 million, representing 4.2% of the USD 30,195 million total housing stock replacement value for 2020. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{\begin{tabular}{c} **Neighborhood** \\ **Type** \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{2}{*}{**Area (ha)**} & \multirow{2}{*}{\begin{tabular}{c} **Exposed** \\ **Houses 2020** \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{2}{*}{\begin{tabular}{c} **Exposed** \\ **Population** \\ **2020** \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{2}{*}{\begin{tabular}{c} **Exposed** \\ **Population** \\ **(10\({}^{3}\) m\({}^{2}\))** \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{2}{*}{\begin{tabular}{c} **Exposed** \\ **(USD) 1** \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{2}{*}{\
\begin{tabular}{c} **Value** \\ **(Million)** \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{2}{*}{
\begin{tabular}{c} **Exposed** \\ **Value (\%)** \\ \end{tabular} } \\ \hline Residential & 43.7 & 1197 & 3755 & 2 & 305.8 & 1246.0 & 381 & 30 \\ Middle class & 56.2 & 3170 & 11,638 & 7 & 337.4 & 940.5 & 317 & 25 \\ Popular & 132.7 & 9431 & 39,316 & 24 & 929.1 & 357.5 & 332 & 26 \\ Precarious & 606.6 & 24,072 & 109,566 & 67 & 4852.9 & 46.3 & 224 & 18 \\ TOTAL & 839.3 & 37,870 & 164,275 & 100 & 6425 & & 1255 & 100 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}  
* USD values from 2020.  
\end{table} 
Table 4: Values exposed to landslides by type of neighborhood. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c} \hline \hline \multicolumn{1}{c}{**RP: (Years)**} & **NLS** & **AD (pix) (Tai)** & \(\textbf{Pt}\left(\frac{Tai}{TIS}\right)\) \\ \hline
125 & 29 & 42,664 & 0.109 \\
6 & 20 & 29,423 & 0.075 \\
4 & 13 & 19,125 & 0.049 \\
2 & 9 & 13,240 & 0.034 \\
1.3 & 3 & 4413 & 0.011 \\
1 & 1 & 1471 & 0.004 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}  
\end{table} 
Table 2: RP: return period. NLS: N\({}^{0}\) of landslides. AD (pix): N\({}^{0}\) of pixels in the landslides. Pt: temporal probability at the pixel level. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c} \hline \hline \multicolumn{1}{c}{**House Type**} & \(\boldsymbol{X}\) & \(\boldsymbol{\sigma}\) & \(\boldsymbol{\alpha}\) & \(\boldsymbol{\beta}\) \\ \hline Precarious brick housing & 0.53 & 0.43 & 0.18 & 0.16 \\ Wooden housing & 0.47 & 0.38 & 0.35 & 0.40 \\ Popular brick housing & 0.42 & 0.34 & 0.46 & 0.63 \\ Block housing & 0.35 & 0.34 & 0.33 & 0.62 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 3: Average, standard deviation, and parameters of the Beta function for each type of housing. The expected value of the economic loss conditioned to a landslide occurrence for each type of neighborhood is summarized in Table 5. As a result of the housing vulnerability (characterized by the MDR), the relationship between the expected loss and the exposed value is lower for residential neighborhoods (36%) and higher for precarious neighborhoods (51%), with the same value for residential and middle-class neighborhoods (44%). Figure 8 shows the expected value of the economic losses at the pixel level. The residential neighborhoods located to the north of the study area (on the slopes of El Picacho hill) show the highest probable loss value at the pixel level, ranging between USD 25,188 and 1,044,164. To estimate the probable loss for each return period (125, 6, 4, 3, 2, and 1 year), the spatial and temporal probability (value Pt in Table 2) and expected value of the economic losses maps were multiplied. The result of the estimation of probable losses for the 125-year return period is shown in Figure 9.  
The estimated total value of losses was determined for each return period.