# Assessing the Probability of Winning a Point in Men's Padel: A Comprehensive Analysis
## 5 Conclusions  
This research enriches the knowledge about men's professional padel and provides valuable information to improve strategy and coaching. The analysis revealed that nearly all points were played on the first serve, with a slightly higher probability of winning the point compared to starting with a second serve. It was observed that the probability of winning a point by serving was highest in short rallies and decreased progressively in medium and long rallies. Regarding finishing shots, the smash was identified as the most frequently used technique to close points, followed by forehand and backhand volleys. Cross-court shots were more commonly used to finish points, either through winners or forced errors. Additionally, nearly half of the points concluded with a short rally, lasting between 1 and 10 s. The average duration of a point was estimated to be 15.23 s.  
The probability of winning a point is influenced by factors such as service possession, type of rally, and court positioning. Generally, it was observed that in short rallies, the serving pair had a higher chance of winning the point while the chances diminished as the rally lengthened. Furthermore, the pair dominating the net had a higher probability of securing the point. The combination of a first serve, short rally, and a shot from zone 3 was found to be the most advantageous for the serving pair, with an 82% success rate. Conversely, the combination of a first serve, long rally, and a final shot from zone 3 offered the defending pair the highest chances of winning the point, with a 92% success rate. For the serving pair, the highest probability of winning the point is achieved when the point ends with a short rally and the pair positions themselves close to the net to execute a cross-court finishing shot. Therefore, it is beneficial for the serving partner to show intensity from the start of the point, looking for winners from the middle area or near the net while keeping the opposing partner away from the net. For the returning pair, it is crucial to initially focus on keeping the serving pair away from the net. As the rally progresses, the chances of winning the point increase significantly. In short and medium rallies, points are more likely to be won by forcing an error rather than hitting a winner. However, as the rally lengthens, the likelihood of winning the point with a winner increases, especially when utilizing cross-court trajectories. These results have significant potential for enhancing both training and match strategies, providing a data-driven approach to improving performance on the court. Conceptualization, I.P.-L., A.J.S.-P., N.D.-R., X.R.-L.-d.-l.-O. and A.G.-S.; methodology, I.P.-L., J.C.A.-G., X.R.-L.-d.-l.-O. and A.G.-S.; software, I.P.-L., N.D.-R. and A.G.-S.; validation, J.C.A.-G., N.D.-R. and X.R.-L.-d.-l.-O. ; formal analysis, I.P.-L. and A.G.-S.; investigation, I.P.-L., J.C.A.-G., A.J.S.-P., N.D.-R., X.R.-L.-d.-l.-O. and A.G.-S.; resources, I.P.-L., A.J.S.-P., J.C.A.-G., N.D.-R. and X.R.-L.-d.-l.-O. ; data curation, I.P.-L., [PERSON], [PERSON] and [PERSON]; writing--original draft, [PERSON]-L., [PERSON], [PERSON] and [PERSON]; writing--review and editing, [PERSON]-L., [PERSON]-L.-d.-l.-O. and [PERSON]; visualization, [PERSON], [PERSON] and [PERSON]; supervision, [PERSON]-L., [PERSON] and [PERSON]; project administration, [PERSON]-L., [PERSON], [PERSON]-L.-d.-l.-O. and [PERSON]; funding acquisition, [PERSON]-L. and [PERSON]. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.