# Towards Urban Sustainability: Developing Noise Prediction Model in an Informal Setting
###### Abstract  
Noise remains an important challenge, particularly in informal settings where planning and regulation are relatively weak. This study aims at developing a model to predict noise in a largely informal urban Kano, the second most populated city in Nigeria. Sound level meter (SLM) 200 TL was used to measure noise at locations covering different land use: residential, industrial, commercial, educational, and administrative areas. Data were collected for seven days, and each day measurements were taken for six hours: 8-10 a.m., 12-2 p.m. and 4-6 p.m. Land use, population density, residential division, traffic volume, and land cover were used to generate a noise model using weighted geographic regression. The findings revealed that noise in the area is higher than the permissible limits set by the WHO and Nigeria's regulatory agency. The model identified population density as the most influencing factor, followed by land cover, traffic volume and distance to the road, then land use. Seventy three percent of the model's residual are below five, indicating a significant association between noise and the variables used. The \(R^{2}\) ranges between 18% and 26% depending on the time of the day. Noise in the area can be effectively control by paying serious attention to city planning and enforcing traffic regulation measures.  
proposed and used in noise prediction. Most of these noise models focus on traffic related noise [3; 12; 13; 14; 15; 16; 17]. Even though traffic is the most important source of urban noise, it cannot be used as a proxy for urban noise. Indeed, using it alone will lead to a serious underestimation of noise in an urban environment [18]. This is due to the nature of the urban environment in terms of its complexity and of it having accumulated, saturated, and diverse sources of sound [12]. These sources include road traffic, industry, construction, commerce, and social as well as leisure activities. Noise pollution has attracted the interest of many disciplines and researchers: medical scientists, urban scientists, physicists, engineers, environmental scientists, and social scientists. This has led to the evolution and use of varying methods and approaches in noise studies.  
In Nigeria, studies such as [19] in Abraka, Delta State, [6] in Ikeja, and [20] in Kano reported a high noise level, exceeding 85 dB in urban communities of Nigeria. In Kano Metropolis, some studies were conducted on noise pollution [21; 22; 23]. These studies were mainly on spatial variation in noise level based on measurements from one or more land use and some specific to a particular noise source. Kano metropolis, the study area, is the second largest city in the country and the commercial capital of northern Nigeria [24]. The metropolis has a projected population of about 4.5 million people, four industrial estates and over ten commercial areas. It is equally known for high traffic [25] that generates a lot of noise [26]. Moreover, contributing much to the city soundscape is people's resolve to using electricity generators day and night due to inadequate power supply [27; 28]. It is, therefore, important to identify factors contributing to the noise which will go a long way in identifying and addressing the problem in future.