# Assessment of Air-Pollution Control Policy's Impact on China's PV Power: A System Dynamics Analysis
## 4 Simulation Results and Analysis
### Simulation Results in Different Policy Scenarios
#### 4.1.3 Scenario 3: With Influence of Fundamental and Supporting Policies  
In Scenario 3, China's PV power industry will develop with influence of both fundamental and supporting air-pollution control policies. In this scenario, China's industrial structure and energy intensity are all control in reasonable range, just as Scenario 2. Stimulated by supporting air-pollution control policies, energy consumption and the proportion of coal consumption will be further reduced. With this background, the increasing rate of thermal power will be controlled within 1%. PV power generation will keep increasing at an annual rate of over 10% during 2015-2020 in Scenario 3. In 2020, China's PV power generation will reach 301.00 billion kWh accounting for 4.30% of total power generation. After that, the increasing rate of PV generation will begin to decline, and the proportion of PV generation will maintain at about 4.5%. On the other hand, supporting air-pollution control policies will keep the increasing rate of interregional transmission capacity at about 10%. Thus, China's PV power generation can gradually break the limitation of power transmission. According to the simulations, the generation will keep increasing at a low speed during 2021-2025, and reach 347.91 billion kWh accounting for 4.41% of total power generation in 2025. PV power curtailment will continue increasing during 2015-2020, because of the lag of electricity grid construction behind the increasing demand of interregional transmission. China's PV power curtailment will reach its peak at 25.67% in 2020. As electricity grid becomes more mature, China's PV power curtailment will start to drop since 2021. The curtailment will be only 8.21% in 2025, and it will probably be eliminated before 2030. In Scenario 3, supporting policies increase the benchmark price of PV power plant and electricity price subsidy of distributed PV power, which makes installed PV capacity higher than that in Scenario 1 and 2. China's Installed PV capacity will start to grow rapidly in 2015, and will reach 247,223 MW in 2020. However, along with the changes of policy environment, the increasing rate of installed PV capacity will fail suddenly and maintain at about 8% since 2021. At the end of our simulation, China's installed PV capacity will reach 414,925 MW. China's distributed PV power will experience a revenue surge during 2016-2020, after that its revenue will return to pre-2015 levels and maintain at around 25 billion CNY as the stop of electricity price subsidy. Its investment has the same trend as revenue. Distributed PV installed capacity will experience accelerated growth during 2015-2020 because of investment surge. It will reach 143,343 MW accounting for 57.98% of total installed PV capacity in 2020. In this stage, distributed PV power will mostly benefit from subsidy not power generation, and become the mainstream of distributed PV. Compared with distributed PV power, PV power plant will develop more steadily. During 2015-2020, its generation will be restricted by insufficient transmission grids. In addition, its capacity will reach 103,880 MW just exceeding the policy target (90,000 MW) in 2020. Since 2021, as transmission grid become more mature, PV power plant will have greater development potential. Thus, the proportion of distributed PV installed capacity will begin to fall slightly. The simulated results of all state variables and some important auxiliary variables in Scenario 3 are shown in Table 14.  
In general, with both fundamental and supporting air-pollution control policies, China's PV generation will keep increasing during the whole simulation. Its proportion in total power generation will rise to 4.5% in 2021, and maintain at that level. PV power curtailment will first increase, then decrease, and probably be eliminated before 2030. In this scenario, quite a high subsidy will bring investment and capacity surge to distributed PV power, which makes it the mainstream of China's PVpower.