## 5 Discussion  
One of the objectives of this work was to make a consistent and validated narrative with the available data on the contagion patterns observed during the evolution of the pandemic in the MR of Santiago. This description of the events would help to understand  
Figure 14: Estimation of the effect of lifting the quarantine on mobility in low-income communes of the Metropolitan Region. how several interacting causes shape the observed patterns of the virus spread and would support decision-making in future contagion developments. The available data comprise (1) human mobility data, (2) socioeconomic data, and (3) COVID-19 epidemiological data. The used methodology was based on: (1) discovering/analyzing mobility patterns; (2) analysis of correlations and regression models; and (3) generating synthetic data to estimate causal relationships in the number of COVID-19 new cases and the mobility after lifting the mobility restriction measures. The initial contagion in the MR of Santiago begins in the richest communes where its inhabitants can afford international travel. Therefore, at the beginning of the pandemic, these communes were at high risk of contagion. An effective containment measure at this stage (creating a sanitary codon around high-risk communes) could have reduced the size of the subsequent contagion across the country. This measure was not taken in time, and the virus followed established routes of human mobility to spread. This occurs mainly through the public transport service. In fact, workers who have their source of work in high-risk communes were infected and carried the virus with them to their communes of origin. The effect is a rapid spread in both rich and low/middle-income communes, reinforced by the fact that workers use public transport to travel between communes. At this stage, there is a strong correlation between mobility and the number of cumulative cases of COVID-19 in each commune. Thus, the government begins with the policies of confinement and quarantines. The measure has a positive effect in the richest communes, which have greater resources and a better socioeconomic situation, but in the low/middle-income communes, its effectiveness is poor, and there are even cases of an acceleration in the number of cases for these communes. In most cases, far from a decrease, the reverse effect is observed. There is no appreciable decrease in the internal mobility of the communes, but this happens similarly for both poor and rich communes. In low-income communes, it is impossible to stay home due to the lack of food and financial resources to survive in combination with little and late government aid. The effects are aggravated by the reduction in the number of services (in addition to its high geographic concentration that produces long lines and crowds of people), and the confinement measures prevent people from \"escaping\" from the high-incidence places. As a result, the contagion and the number of deaths grew in low-income communes, despite quarantines and measures taken. This entire situation is aggravated by poor hygienic conditions, frequent base diseases in the population, and poor diet, among other factors that further promote the spread and mortality of the virus. After a long time with the conditions described above, that is, high rates of infection and death, finally, the confinement measures begin to work and the number of cases begins to decrease. From here, the government begins to gradually relax the measures of restriction of mobility, and slowly several communes leave the quarantine. However, the virus remains in the population, mainly in some \"pockets\" located in low-income communes. With the explosive increase in mobility and the return to the old routes of movement, the conditions are again in place for the virus to spread again, thus beginning what some have called the \"second wave\". From here on, the government again takes up lockdown policies, this time through the \"Step by Step\" plan. However, restrictive measures lose their effectiveness.