## 5 Discussion  
This section of the paper explains the forecasted growth for the entire research, as well as the possible factors across the world that might affect the LNG trade during the upcoming period. The number of LNG-importing countries will increase by 17.5 % by 2030. The number of LNG-exporting countries is forecasted to increase at the same rate of 5% during the forecast period. The LNG trade volume is expected to increase by 15% over the next five years. According to the prediction, the LNG fleet could grow by 40% by 2030. All these predictions depend on a large number of positive and negative factors. The global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is already characterized by its volatility and strategic importance, will change significantly by 2030. Amid geopolitical tensions--from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine to instability in the Red Sea and Yemen to regulatory changes by the new US administration--the dynamics of the LNG trade are shifting in expected and unexpected ways. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, now in its third year, continues to have a negative impact on global energy security. Europe's shift away from Russian pipeline gas has greatly increased demand for LNG, particularly from the US, Qatar, and other suppliers. This switch has not only made Europe a premium market for LNG exporters, but has also tightened supply for other regions, particularly in Asia. While Europe has expanded its regasification capacities, the port and pipeline infrastructure in some regions (e.g., Germany and the Baltic states) remains strained. The resurgence of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, particularly near the Babel-Mandeb Strait--a major global chokepoint--has disrupted LNG shipping routes between the Middle East, Asia, and Europe. Major shipping companies have diverted their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times and increasing freight costs. Insurance premiums for vessels transiting the risk zones have skyrocketed, driving up overall delivery costs. Qatar's exports to Europe have been delayed, prompting European buyers to diversify even more to LNG from the Atlantic basin (e.g., from the USA and West Africa). Qatar, one of the world's largest LNG exporters, is responding to these tensions with a mixture of opportunism and caution. With long-term contracts binding Asian buyers and increased interest from Europe, Qatar has a significant advantage. The newly elected US administration has introduced a series of tariff and trade policy changes designed to reshape international trade, including the energy sector. Althoughthese changes are presented as measures to support domestic industry and climate goals, they could impact the global LNG trade. Licenses for LNG exports will be reviewed under stricter climate policy considerations, which could lead to a slowdown in new project approvals. Stricter inspection and reporting requirements for cross-border LNG transactions could increase the administrative burden for traders. Talks about imposing tariffs on LNG facilities or certain destinations--especially those with weak climate commitments--could affect trade flows. Adding to the complexity of the LNG landscape in 2025 is the emergence of a highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza (HPAI) that has spread in parts of Asia and Europe. Although it is not directly linked to LNG, its impact is being felt. In the affected regions, the outbreaks have led to local closures, staff shortages at ports, and temporary disruptions to cargo handling. LNG tanker routes have had to be adjusted to comply with changes in international health regulations, leading to further delays in deliveries. The outbreak of avian flu temporarily slowed down industrial activity in key importing countries such as South Korea and Japan, which reduced short-term demand for LNG. Although avian flu is expected to be contained faster than COVID-19 due to improved global coordination, the impact of avian flu has highlighted the need for LNG players to factor health risks into their logistics and demand forecasts.