## 4 Discussion
This leads to a more equilibrated seasonal BE value, which globally lightly overestimates energy consumption. In addition, even if the BE for 1-27 November and 24 December-22 January results are worse for the automatic calibration, other periods' consumption is definitely more accurate, resulting in a lower CVRMSE value. So, for this specific case, ACM better fits the real energy consumption than MCM. This conclusion could imply that ACM could provide a more reliable prediction of energy consumption than MCM in cases in which the energy model would be used for evaluating the energy performance of building retrofit solutions. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Calibration** & **Calibration A** & **Calibration B** & **Calibration C** \\ \hline
**Period** & 21 June 2015–26 June 2015 & 28 July 2015–1 August 2015 & 13 December 2015–18 December 2015 \\ \hline
**Method** & Manual & Automatic & Manual & Automatic & Manual & Automatic \\ \hline
**Time** & 1 [mon] & **17 (SA) + 5 [h]** & 2 [week] & **9 (SA) + 4.5 [h]** & 3 [week] & **0 (SA) + 6 [h]** \\
**Simulations** & 51 & **340 (SA) + 437** & 25 & **180 (SA) + 408** & 15 & **0 (SA) + 299** \\
**RMSE** & 0.350 & **0.270** & 0.624 & **0.417** & 0.554 & **0.390** \\
**CVRMSE** & 1.315 & **1.016** & 2.291 & **1.530** & 2.619 & **1.844** \\
**NRMSE** & 11.980 & **9.258** & 21.602 & **14.426** & 12.869 & **9.058** \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 15: Multi-stage calibration results comparison for manual and automatic methods. In bold the best results. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Period** & **Measured Heating** & **Measured Primary** & **Simulated Primary** & **BE [\%]** & **MBE [\%]** & **CVRMSE [\%]** \\  & **Fuel [scm]** & **Energy [kWh]** & **Energy [kWh]** & **BE [\%]** & **MBE [\%]** & **CVRMSE [\%]** \\ \hline
1-27 November 2014 & 373 & 4107 & 3687 & -10.23 & - & - \\
28 November-23 December 2014 & 386 & 4250 & 3909 & -8.03 & - & - \\
24 December 2014–22 January 2015 & 441 & 4856 & 4374 & -9.92 & - & - \\
23 January-17 February 2015 & 394 & 4338 & 3885 & -10.45 & - & - \\
18 February-12 March 2015 & 332 & 3656 & 3872 & 5.92 & - & - \\
13 March-14 April 2015 & 365 & 4019 & 3559 & -11.45 & - & - \\
1 November 2014–14 April 2015 & 2291 & 25,226 & 23,286 & - & -7.69 & 9.69 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 16: Monthly and seasonal heating fuel consumption as measured from bills and as simulated with MCM. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Period** & **Measured Heating** & **Measured Primary** & **Simulated Primary** & **BE [\%]** & **MBE [\%]** & **CVRMSE [\%]** \\  & **Fuel [scm]** & **Energy [kWh]** & **Energy [kWh]** & **BE [\%]** & **MBE [\%]** & **CVRMSE [\%]** \\ \hline
1-27 November 2014 & 373 & 4107 & 3631 & -11.59 & - & - \\
28 November-23 December 2014 & 386 & 4250 & 4330 & 1.88 & - & - \\
24 December 2014–22 January 2015 & 441 & 4856 & 5464 & 12.52 & - & - \\
23 January-17 February 2015 & 394 & 4338 & 4582 & 5.62 & - & - \\
18 February-12 March 2015 & 332 & 3656 & 3497 & -4.34 & - & - \\
13 March-14 April 2015 & 365 & 4019 & 4254 & 5.85 & - & - \\
1 November 2014–14 April 2015 & 2291 & 25,226 & 25,758 & - & 2.11 & 8.37 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 17: Monthly and seasonal heating fuel consumption as measured from bills and as simulated with ACM.