## 1 Introduction  
South America suffered the highest rates of deforestation in the world between 1990 and 2020, which has led to many South American ecosystems becoming highly fragmented, with low forest integrity [1]. Researchers have studied the spatial patterns of forests across a wide range of geographic locations because they are concerned about the widespread negative effects of fragmentation [2]. High rates of fragmentation may also lead to a loss of connectivity, affecting populations. Population connectivity influences functional ecology and is related to the ability of species to persist and recover from ecological perturbations such as habitat fragmentation and climate change [3]. Loss of connectivity, coupled with climate change, can be terrible for biodiversity. Climate change is expected to modify South American ecosystems, and loss of connectivity will prevent South American populations from migrating [4]. Deforestation is known to affect both the fragmentation and connectivity of forest ecosystems due to restricted gene flow, dispersal, and population exchanges, which may ultimately result in the extinction of some rare and threatened species, particularly those with small populations or restricted distributions [5]. Mangrove forests cover about 147.000 km\({}^{2}\) along the coastlines of most tropical, subtropical, and warm-temperate regions of the world [6]. Mangrove species comprise 20 genera from 16 families and 110 species, of which six species are identified in Ecuador; one is included in the IUCN Red List as critically endangered [7]. Mangrove forests are one of the world's greatest concentrations of biodiversity due to their complex topographic and ecological conditions [8]. These forests mitigate global climate change by storing substantial reserves of blue carbon, preventing erosion, protecting coastal communities from extreme weather, and providing habitat for fisheries species [9]. Mangrove forests are threatened by anthropogenic processes such as deforestation, rising sea levels, overexploitation, loss of habitat, and fragmentation [10; 11; 12]. Deforestation affected more than 3700 km\({}^{2}\) of global mangrove coverage from 1999-2019, with annual deforestation rates of up to 3.6%, which were only partially offset by gains of 1800 km\({}^{2}\)[13; 14]. Previous studies have demonstrated that deforestation and fragmentation of mangrove populations have reduced population sizes, with an increase in marginal and isolated populations [15; 16]. Habitat fragmentation is a leading cause of global biodiversity decline, and it has become a crucial focus in conservation biology [17]. Ecuador is considered one of the twelve most biodiverse countries in the world and is also the country with the smallest area of the twelve. Ecuador mangrove forests are found within the Choco/Darien/Western Ecuador biodiversity hotspot. Fragmented mangrove forests suffer from reduced resilience and ecological functionality, as they experience higher tidal flow, increased erosion, diminished wave mitigation, and biodiversity loss [12; 18]. Mangrove ecosystems also play a vital role in mitigating the impacts of natural hazards such as storms, floods, and coastal erosion [19]. These ecosystems serve as natural barriers, protecting coastlines and communities from the adverse effects of such events. Mangrove forests are one of the most endangered ecosystems in Ecuador as a result of anthropogenic pressure [20]. In Ecuador, mangrove forests are concentrated along the estuaries of the Mataje-Santiago-Cayapas, Muisne-Cojimes-Chone-Guayas, Jubones-Santa Rosa-Arenillas, and Mataje-Santiago-Cayapas rivers, with two dominant types: the Choco tropical mangrove (Esmeraldas) and the Jama Zapotillo mangrove (Manabi, Guayas, and El Oro). The most common major mangrove species in Ecuador are _Rhizophora mangle_ L., _R. racemose_ G. [PERSON], _R. \(\times\) harrisonii_ [PERSON], _Laguncularia racemosa_ (L.) [PERSON]. [PERSON] var. _racemosa_, _L. racemose_ var.