## 6 Analysis of RAMS-ISAC Simulations
Precipitation is predicted also over Calabria (39.7\({}^{\circ}\)N, 16.8\({}^{\circ}\)E) with maximum amounts of 90 mm/24 h. While the forecast shows that Numa could be a potentially dangerous meteorological system because, in addition to the high winds, it brings considerable precipitation, the forecast on 16 November shows small precipitation amounts over Apulia, and northeastern Calabria. The situation is different for the forecast issued on 17 November (Figure 13d); in this forecast, the impact of Numa in Southern Apulia is evident, because RAMS-ISAC shows a maximum of 140 mm/h and 120 mm/24 h in Presicce and Ruffano, respectively, in good agreement with the observations. Interestingly, the simulation starting at 12:00 on 16 November was able to forecast the TLC features of Numa, similarly to that on 17 November (see Figures 15 and 16) and, considering the characteristics of the storm (low vertical wind shear, quasi-neutral moist environment, sea level pressure minima, amount of precipitation at the surface, etc. ), the two forecasts issued on 16 and 17 November are similar. Nevertheless, an important difference arises comparing the storm tracks of the two simulations (Figure 14). The storm track of the forecast issued on 16 November (R16) is shifted to the south compared with that issued on 17 November (R17). Also, while the R17 storm track is almost stationary for the first 12 h, the R16 center of the storm moves more rapidly towards Greece. The R17 track is in better agreement with that of Figure 5 which, being derived from ECMWF analysis and short-term forecast, can be considered as the reference. The mslp minima have similar values between R16 and R17 and vary from 1003 hPa to 1006 hPa, in good agreement with values in Figure 5.  
From the above analysis, it follows that the differences between R16 and R17 are mainly in the tracks followed by the TLCs of the two simulations, showing the important role of initial and boundary conditions for the forecast of this kind of events, similarly to other studies ([5,13] among others). Therefore, the consequences on the precipitation field forecast over the land are significant. Since the simulation starting on 17 November at 12:00 UTC provides a good rainfall field forecast over Apulia region, in the following the output of this simulation is used to present some characteristics of Numa TLC phase. An important feature of the Medicanes is the surface wind, which can be intense, causing damages and being a threat for the populations. Satellite observations are an important source of data in this context because they can be used to verify the wind field forecast over the sea, where  
Figure 14: Numa track between 12:00 UTC on 17 November and 00:00 UTC on 19 November simulated by RAMS-ISAC starting at 12:00 UTC on 16 November (asterisks) and at 12:00 UTC on 17 November (filled circle). Specific times are shown in colors. The center of the storm on each time is given by the mslp minimum simulated by RAMS-ISAC. conventional observations are sparse. Figure 15 shows the comparison between RAMS-ISAC forecast on 17 November at 19:00 UTC, and the ASCAT observations at 19:09 UTC on the same day. The model is able to predict several features of the storm, such as the eye position (shifted few kilometers to the southwest of the real position) and the strong wind, up to 20 m/s, on the western side of the eye. The main areas of moderate-intense wind over the Adriatic and Ionian Seas are also well predicted even if the model underestimates observed winds. There are also local scale features that are not forecast by the model, as the local wind patterns south of 37\({}^{\circ}\)N and east of 18 \({}^{\circ}\)E.  
As already stated, Numa shows TLC features at this time of development. To highlight these features, Figure 16a shows the cross-section of relative humidity and temperature anomaly fields along 39.2\({}^{\circ}\) N latitude on 17 November at 19:00 UTC. The temperature anomaly is computed with respect to the mean value at each vertical level.