# A Scoring Algorithm for the Early Prediction of Academic Risk in STEM Courses
## 4 Overview of the Variables Used in the Analysis  
A clear understanding of the structure and assessment methods of the Mathematics 1 course is crucial for interpreting the variables used in this study. The Mathematics 1 course is a compulsory first-year course at the Faculty of Engineering, University of Rijeka. The course is delivered through traditional in-person instruction for 15 weeks, with students attending three hours of lectures and three hours of exercises per week. In addition, students have access to the Mathematics 1 e-course via the LMS Merlin, which facilitates e-learning through the distribution of learning materials, communication tools, and online assessments. While the platform tracks student activity and generates descriptive reports, it does not offer predictive insights or personalized recommendations. All exercise tasks in Merlin are stored as formulaic questions. This format allows for the use of global and local variables, enabling the generation of multiple versions of the same task. An example of a formulaic question code and two generated tasks can be found in Figure 1. On the left side of Figure 1, the code for creating a question is shown, containing variables (random and global) as well as the main question (i.e., the task text). On the right side of Figure 1, two different tasks generated from this code are displayed. Figure 1: An example of a formulaic question in the learning management system (LMS) Merlin. These tasks serve as the basis for weekly tests. Each week, students take a test during exercises and later have the opportunity to solve equivalent learning tests at home, where parameters differ, allowing them to practice and independently verify their acquired knowledge. The maximum attainable score in the course is 100 points. Throughout the semester, three midterm exams are held, contributing to a total of 70 points. The first mid-term takes place in week 5, the second in week 11, and the third in week 16 (the first week after the end of classes). Students who accumulate at least 35 points during the semester qualify for the final exam, which carries an additional 30 points. To pass the course, a student must obtain at least 15 points on the final exam. If a student does not accumulate 35 points during the semester or does not reach the minimum passing score on the final exam, they receive a failing grade (F) and must retake the course. The analysis in this study relies on a set of variables that capture different aspects of student participation, assessment performance, and learning activity within the Mathematics 1 course. The variable _Number of learning tests_ represents the total number of instances in which a student has completed a learning test in a given week, including repeated attempts. The variable _Maximum of learning tests_ records the highest percentage of points a student achieved in a given week, providing insight into their highest performance during that period. The descriptive statistical indicators for these variables per week are presented in Table 1. The table illustrates that students engage more actively in learning tests in the weeks preceding midterm exams. Their performance also improves during these periods, suggesting intensified preparation and focused study efforts. The graphical representation of the arithmetic mean and the standard deviation for the variable _Number of learning tests_ is shown in Figure 2 to visually illustrate the increased activity of the students in the weeks before the midterm exams. High values of the arithmetic mean and the standard deviation in the weeks before the midterm exams (especially at the end of the semester) indicate increased activity of the students in solving the weekly tests as well as considerable differences in the number of attempts to solve these tests among the students.