## 1 Introduction
Many studies have analyzed this issue, but only focused on price volatility, including future volatility and past trends, oil price volatility, export concentration, stock levels, and yields [19]. Climate change is said to also have a significant impact on food security [20; 21]. Financial securities and market fluctuations are also affected by extreme weather frequency, which psychologically influences investor behavior in making decisions, including food investment [22; 23]. This study explicitly analyzes the influence of climate on food price volatility for a sustainable food system. Volatility is a value that shows how much and how fast something changes over time, such as what happens in commodity prices [24]. Variations in food commodity prices can be a problem and increase the risk for actors in the food system: producers, consumers, and the government. In simple terms, volatility can be seen from the mean value of price variations [25]. Economic volatility is closely related to commodity prices, including public food products in the agricultural sector. Its value is formed in the middle of the market, influenced by other factors. One is the energy issue, which has triggered the use of food crops as an alternative to renewable energy. The factor that is considered the most dominant is the variation in the amount of food production and consumption caused by differences in demand and supply [26]. The most recent issue is climate change, which profoundly impacts production and markets [27]. The increasing frequency of natural disasters tends to reduce agricultural production [28]. Further research is needed to examine rice price volatility with an approach using natural and market factors. Indonesia is a region with varied topography and abundant biological wealth, with a maritime and archipelago area, so the potential for natural resources is immense. The large amount of solar radiation received by the Earth's surface every day results in a unique climate in Indonesia. By receiving relatively consistent energy, rain clouds tend to be abundant every year [29]. This condition affects the area's humidity, with high rainfall values [30], which is an advantage for the food system with the right design of agricultural, economic, and social policies. Community welfare can be realized through the potential of its resources. The Constitution's mandate states that food is a basic human need that must be fulfilled at any time, so that the right to meet food needs is a human right. Law No. 7 of 1996 also states that it is the right of every human being in Indonesia to be free from hunger. In Indonesia, food security has been affirmed in Law No. 18 of 2012, with three main pillars concerning food: availability, affordability, and stability. This can be more clearly stated as a condition where the population's food needs are met in an equitable manner, and everyone is provided with sufficient, good quality, diverse food with good nutrition that is affordable, not against any religion, and produced sustainably. The main objective of this study was to introduce how to determine the level of price volatility for major food commodities with a climatic condition and macroeconomic approach that affects the price of rice and manage the shocks that can cause disruption to the welfare of society in Indonesia. This study focuses on the provincial level because it is the most relevant scale to local and national needs. Data used include rice price with nineteen variables from macroeconomic and climate dynamics components covering 2009 to 2018. The article is organized as follows: Section 1 explains the background and brief introduction of the work; Section 2 describes a theoretical review about price volatility and variables that use this in this work; Section 3 describes the methodological approach and explain the formula employed; the result is presented in Section 4; a brief discussion of the result describes in Section 5, and the conclusion appears at the end of the paper.