# Social Media, Quo Vadis? Prospective Development and Implications
## 4 Results
### Scenario
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Projection** & \multicolumn{3}{c}{**Second Round (N = 63)**} & \multicolumn{3}{c}{**Second Round (N = 25)**} & \multicolumn{3}{c}{**Differences**} \\ \hline _Section 5:_ & \(x_{0.25}\) & \(x_{0.5}\) & \(x_{0.75}\) & IQR & \(x_{0.25}\) & \(x_{0.5}\) & \(x_{0.75}\) & IQR & \(x_{0.25}\) & \(x_{0.5}\) & \(x_{0.75}\) & IQR \\ _Individual effects_ & & 2 & 3 & 3 & 1 & 3 & 3 & 3 & 0 & 1 & 0 & 0 & \(-1\) \\ _33._Depression & 1 & 2 & 2 & 1 & 2 & 2 & 2 & 0 & 1 & 0 & 0 & \(-1\) \\ _34._Real-life contacts & 2 & 3 & 3 & 1 & 3 & 3 & 3 & 0 & 1 & 0 & 0 & \(-1\) \\ _35._Isolation/loneliness & 2 & 2 & 3 & 1 & 2 & 2 & 3 & 1 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\ _36._Negative body image & 1 & 2 & 2 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 2 & 1 & 0 & \(-1\) & 0 & 0 \\ _37._Narcissism & 1 & 2 & 2 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 2 & 1 & 0 & \(-1\) & 0 & 0 \\ _38._Reduced attention & 1 & 1 & 2 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 2 & 1 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\ \hline _Section 6:_ & & & & & & & & & & & & \\ _Social effects_ & \(x_{0.25}\) & \(x_{0.5}\) & \(x_{0.75}\) & IQR & \(x_{0.25}\) & \(x_{0.5}\) & \(x_{0.75}\) & IQR & \(x_{0.25}\) & \(x_{0.5}\) & \(x_{0.75}\) & IQR \\ _39._Economic growth & 2 & 2 & 2 & 0 & 2 & 2 & 2 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\ _40._Job creation & 1 & 2 & 2 & 1 & 1 & 2 & 2 & 1 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\ _41._Birth rates & 3 & 3 & 4 & 1 & 3 & 3 & 4 & 1 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\ _42._Political interest & 2 & 2 & 3 & 1 & 2 & 2 & 2 & 0 & 0 & 0 & \(-1\) & \(-1\) \\ _43._Democracy & 2 & 2 & 3 & 1 & 2 & 2 & 3 & 1 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\ _44._Censorship & 2 & 2 & 3 & 1 & 2 & 2 & 2 & 0 & 0 & \(-1\) & \(-1\) \\ _45._General education & 2 & 3 & 3 & 1 & 2 & 2 & 3 & 1 & 0 & \(-1\) & 0 & 0 \\ _46._Public health & 2 & 3 & 3 & 1 & 3 & 3 & 3 & 0 & 1 & 0 & 0 & \(-1\) \\ _47._Pollution & 2 & 3 & 3 & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 2 & 0 & 0 & 1 & +1 \\ _48._Energy demand & 2 & 2 & 3 & 1 & 2 & 2 & 3 & 1 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\ _49._Individualism & 2 & 2 & 3 & 1 & 2 & 2 & 3 & 1 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\ _50._Collectivism & 2 & 2 & 3 & 1 & 2 & 2 & 3 & 1 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 3: _Cont._Social media will have significant negative effects on individuals such as depression, feelings of isolation and loneliness, negative body images, self-centeredness, and narcissism. Also, users' attention spans will decrease. Furthermore, societal effects will be significant. The economy will increasingly grow, and more jobs will be created due to social media. The public's interest in politics will increase, and therefore democracy will progress. However, we will also see rising censorship on social media platforms. Society will also benefit from a higher level of citizen's education. However, energy consumption of social media operators will represent a high share of global energy demand. Social media might increase both individualism and collectivism. In contrast, the experts do not expect several developments to happen that were addressed in further projections. Regarding the interactive technology, they do not see that social media will address the olfactory or gustatory sense. Also thought-based interaction is not expected, at least not in the given timeframe. The change of social media platforms will not include their unification to one large network. National governments will neither de-monopolize large social media operators nor encumber them with regulations which might inhibit their further development. It is also not expected that political campaigns will be banned from social media. The experts do not see positive effects on individuals caused by social media, such as an increased general wellbeing or more real-life social contacts. Several societal effects induced by social media can also be negated. For example, social media will have no effects on birth rates, will not increase public health, and not reduce pollution.