## 3 Results
### Land Use Changes Comparison  
The MCK software provided four contingency tables. These transformation matrices, reporting the number of cells, provide the cross distribution of the categories on the different pairwise maps. As a first step, LU change analysis over the two hundred years, from 1817 to 2009, was performed. The main variations affect (Table 5):  
* urban areas, which have increased by almost 700% principally at the expense of agricultural areas, vineyards and, moderately, forests. * sparse vegetation areas, which have increased up to 1800%, mainly producing a reduction in forests, but also in vineyards and agricultural areas. * vineyards, which have experienced a decrease of 99%, nearly disappearing from the Vesuvius area; it is interesting to note that vineyards have completely disappeared the original areas of the 2009 LU map, while a few hectares were still detectable in areas occupied by forests in the past. After partial time step analysis for the period of 1817-1907 (Table 6), we observed:  
* a significant increase in sparse vegetation areas, over 1700%, almost exclusively at the expense of forest areas. * a significant increase in vineyards, equal to nearly 200%, due to changes in land use from other categories of agricultural areas. The first half of the twentieth century (1907-1960) allowed us to observe (Table 7) a substantial return to agricultural activities (+1200%). All other land use classes show a partial conversion to agricultural uses, but vineyards were especially affected by these changes (\(-53\%\)). \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**LU\_1817**LU\_1907 & **1—Urban** & **2—Agricultural Uses** & **3—Vineyard** & **4—Forest** & **5—Sparse Vegetated** & **Sum LU\_1817** \\ \hline
1—Urban & 5724.5 & 343.2 & 2211.6 & 8.6 & 191.3 & 8479.2 \\
2—Agricultural & 5277.7 & 5552.0 & 100,559.2 & 578.0 & 3539.4 & 115.506.2 \\
3—Vineyard & 897.8 & 1024.5 & 42,826.9 & 2303.1 & 8504.8 & 55,557.0 \\
4—Forest & 165.7 & 528.6 & 11,800.7 & 33,074.6 & 41,172.0 & 86741.6 \\
5—Sparse & 279.8 & 28.4 & 349.6 & 384.6 & 1930.1 & 2972.5 \\ \hline Sum LU\_1907 & 12,345.4 & **7476.7** & **157,748.0** & 36,348.9 & **55,337.6** & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 6: Contingency table of land cover change for the period 1817–1907. Results represent the areas under change and are expressed in ha. Cells in orange report a loss in ha, while green ones report a net gain in ha. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**LU\_1817**LU\_2009 & **1—Urban** & **2—Agricultural Uses** & **3—Vineyard** & **4—Forest** & **Sparse Vegetated** & **Sum LU\_1817** \\ \hline
1—Urban & 7067.4 & 935.5 & 0.0 & 158.2 & 326.2 & 8487.3 \\
2—Agricultural & 36,290.1 & 67,409.9 & 0.0 & 789.9 & 11,028.4 & 115,518.2 \\
3—Vineyard & 14,938.6 & 21,299.6 & 0.0 & 3768.4 & 15,567.4 & 55,573.9 \\
4—Forest & 6386.2 & 6171.8 & 390.4 & 48,000.2 & 25,800.5 & 86,749.1 \\ vegetated & 898.5 & 73.9 & 0.0 & 468.8 & 1415.6 & 2856.7 \\ \hline Sum LU\_2009 & 65,880.8 & 95,890.7 & **390.4** & 53,185.5 & 54,138.0 & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 5: Contingency table of land cover change for the period 1817–2009. Results represent the areas under change and are expressed in ha. Cells in orange report a loss in ha, while green ones report a net gain in ha. The last period examined, the second half of the Twentieth century, shows remarkably different developmental trends (Table 8):  
* the main variation concerns urban areas, which have increased by 330%, subtracting land from agricultural areas and vineyards. * vineyards have almost completely disappeared (\(-\)99.5%); the few hectares still existing are obtained from areas previously affected by forests and sparse vegetation. K values allow definition of a poor degree of LU class correspondence overall, which increases, moderately (discrete correspondence values), only in the pairwise comparison of 1907 with 1960.