## 1 Introduction  
The infrastructure development program is the main target of the Indonesia government, which aims to grow the economy and national connectivity. Limitations and delays in infrastructure development in Indonesia make it difficult for Indonesia's economy to develop. Infrastructure investment in Cameroon heavily influences economic and private-sector growth [1]. Transportation infrastructure is important in supporting economic growth in the United Kingdom. Improving connectivity, and facilitating trade and investment are two of the goals of building a strong infrastructure supporting economic development in the United Kingdom [2]. By influencing production and consumption patterns and promoting sustainable economic development through higher tourism and private consumption, rail infrastructure impacts economic growth in China [3]. Transportation infrastructure, particularly railways, significantly affects economic growth by improving connectivity, reducing transportation costs, and facilitating trade. Investment in railway projects can increase efficiency in the movement of goods and people, stimulating the local economy and attracting investment [4]. According to [5], delays in railway projects significantly hamper economic growth, as timely implementation of transport networks is critical to development. In developing countries such as Vietnam, economic growth is one of the significant obstacles, one of which is the problem of postponing the railway project schedule [6]. Despite the performed studies in emerging markets, they lack evidence in the context of complex construction work, such as central station building, due to interdependencies with several factors, such technical, social, interface-management, and any other related factors. One of the ways to support the government's program in growing the economic sector in Indonesia is to revitalize the Jakarta Central. Jakarta Central Railway Station Construction Project Phase II, one of the largest and busiest central stations in Indonesia, has a very complex location, and the implementation of the project has experienced a very significant delay. According to the initial contract, the construction of the Railway Station Phase II project began on 11 October 2019 and is planned to be completed on 30 September 2021. Based on Figure 1, which was obtained from the author's research results through project archive studies, the construction of Railway Station Phase II should have been completed on 30 September 2021; however, the actual progress achieved on that day was merely 42.08%, resulting in a delay deviation of \(-\)57.92% [7]. However, significant delays led to the project's completion on 31 January 2024, a delay of approximately 2.5 years where the risks are identified and qualitatively assessed, as shown in Figure 1.  
The delayed construction of the station has negatively impacted the project owner, causing increased operational challenges and financial losses. Furthermore, the commuters were disappointed, and it led to negative perceptions and complaints that spread across the train users. Project owners face reputational risks, while service providers struggle [8]. The delay problem occurs because, in managing the project and the estimated schedule and controlling the project schedule with ineffective risk management, minimal risk management will have an impact on risk. Risk analysis and probabilistic methods are used for scheduling simulations, ensuring timely completion and minimizing delays [9]. This research aims to identify the risks in the project causing the delay, assess them using quantitative risk analysis, and enhance the project completion forecast based on the prioritized risks with PERT and Monte Carlo Simulation. It examines several occurrences of delays in global railway projects, using the Jakarta Central Railway Station Phase II Construction in Indonesia as a case study.