## 4 Results  
### Predicted Land-Use and Landscape Changes  
The list of independent variables and their regression coefficients for each land-use class are shown in Table 2. Not all independent variables had a significant effect on the determination of land-use type, and the effect of each variable was not consistent across land-use types. Sandy loam soil was only significant for perennial trees, while population density seems significant for many land-use types. Furthermore, silt clay soil was significantly (positively) correlated with paddy, maize, perennial trees cultivation and deciduous forest. However, clay loam texture was negatively correlated with paddy but was a positive factor for maize and perennial cultivation. Among 17 independent variables, slope, mean temperature and distance from paved road contributed to all land-use classes. Higher altitude, steeper slope, and increased distance from streams, as well as inaccessibility were positively correlated with stabilizing the evergreen forest. In contrast, areas that are situated in clay and clay loam soils, accessible from roads, and at low altitude are suitable for paddy, maize, and perennial trees (Table 2). Soil characteristics are not significant factors for water body, settlement, and miscellaneous land uses.  
Using the receiver operating characteristic area under curve (AUC) to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of a logistic regression model [67], the predicted models were outstanding for paddy (AUC > 0.9), excellent for perennial trees, forest plantation, human settlement, miscellaneous land use and water body (0.8 \(\leq\) AUC < 0.9), and very good for the remaining land-use classes (0.7 \(\leq\) AUC < 0.8), except cash crops (good). Relatively poorer performance for cash crops may be due to their lack of clustering on the landscape, as they occur in all soils and altitudes.  
The simulated LU/LC maps for 2030 for the three scenarios are shown in Figure 3. The trend scenario predicts expansion of rubber plantations that will lead to more deforestation in the northern part of the province (i.e., Chalerm Phrakiat, Pua, Song Kwae and Tha Wang Pha districts) but only a small increase was predicted in the south (Figure 3B). Maize cultivation was also predicted to increase from the existing cultivated areas into new areas province-wide.  
The market-oriented scenario predicted moderate land conversion for maize and cash crops. The expansion of these annual crops is distributed in the east and the west similar to the trend scenario, but does not include protected areas (restriction policy) (Figure 3C). Large areas of shifting cultivation situated in high altitudes were predicted to return to forest areas either via natural regeneration (5-year duration) or reforestation practices. Paddy fields are predicted to expand in the valley along both sides of the Nan River to reduce depe  
Figure 3: Predicted LU/LC in 2030 under different land-use scenarios.  
Future LU/LC for the conservation scenario was similar to the baseline (2016). This scenario assumed less demand for agriculture and rubber plantations, public awareness of and the need for environmental conservation, as well as low rubber prices. Most of the shifting cultivation areas situated in north converted to forest cover (Figure 3D), including Chalerm Phrakiat, Pua, Bo Klue districts. The amount of paddy fields, maize and rubber plantations was similar to the baseline.