# Achievement Prediction and Performance Assessment System for Nations in the Asian Games
## 2 Materials and Methods
### Back-Propagation DEA Algorithm
Through mathematical derivation, the calculation formula is as follows: single output = 0.5814 \(\times\) Gold+ 0.2437 \(\times\) Silver+ 0.1749 \(\times\) Bronze. 5. Efficiency: This study considers the input and output items of Asian nations related to the Asian Games, measuring the efficiency values obtained by each nation. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c} \hline
**No.** & **Nation** & **Participating Years** \\ \hline
31 & North Yemen & 82, 86 \\
32 & Oman & 82, 86, 90, 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
33 & Pakistan & 54, 58, 62, 66, 70, 74, 78, 82, 86, 90, 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
34 & Palestine & 90, 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
35 & _Philippines_ & 51, 54, 58, 62, 66, 70, 74, 78, 82, 86, 90, 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
36 & _Qatar_ & 78, 82, 86, 90, 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
37 & Sarawak & 62 \\
38 & Saudi Arabia & 78, 82, 86, 90, 942, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
39 & _Singapore_ & 51, 54, 58, 62, 66, 70, 74, 78, 82, 86, 90, 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
40 & _South Korea_ & 54, 58, 62, 66, 70, 74, 78, 82, 86, 90, 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
41 & South Yemen & 82 \\
42 & Sri Lanka & 51, 54, 58, 62, 66, 70, 74, 78, 82, 86, 90, 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
43 & Syria & 78, 82, 90, 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
44 & Tajikistan & 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
45 & _Thailand_ & 51, 54, 58, 62, 66, 70, 74, 78, 82, 86, 90, 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
46 & Timor-Leste & 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
47 & Turkmenistan & 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
48 & United Arab & 78, 82, 86, 90, 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\ Emirates & 78, 82, 86, 90, 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
49 & Uzbekistan & 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
50 & Vietnam & 54, 58, 62, 66, 70, 74, 82, 90, 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\
51 & Yemen & 90, 94, 98, 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 23 \\ \hline \end{tabular} \(51=1951\); 03 = 2023; Nations (with Italic) = nations or regions participating from the 1990 Asian Games in Beijing to the 2023 Asian Games in Hangzhou.

\end{table} 
Table 2: _Cont._

## 3 Results

Fifty-one nations participated in the Asian Games from 1951 to 2023, excluding nations that were absent from any of the Asian Games or did not win any medals, and a total of fourteen Asian nations or regions participated from the 11 th Asian Games in Beijing in 1990 to the 19 th Asian Games in Hangzhou in 2023. Due to space constraints, we demonstrate samples for inputs and outputs of Chinese Taipei from the 1990 to the 2022 Asian Games. This study's DEA-ANN model set five input layers (GDP, population, athletes, ZSG, efficiency) and one output layer as medals won (Table 3). The descriptive statistics of inputs and outputs for 14 Asian nations in the 2023 Asian Games are presented in this study. The data analysis covers nine Asian Games, totaling 126 data points. Table 4 displays data for five input layers, including maximum, minimum, mean, and standard deviation. The data mentioned above were incorporated into the DEA-ANN model in this study. We present the medals earned, predict medal outcomes, and present accuracy metrics for gold, silver, bronze, and total medals across 14 nations in the 2023 Asian Games. Following conventional medal rankings, the quantity of gold medals holds paramount significance. The results indicate in Table 5 that China, India, Chinese Taipei, the Philippines, and Singapore, among the other nine nations (Japan, South Korea, Iran, Thailand, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Qatar, Mongolia, and Macau), exceeded the predicted performance in that the actual number of gold medals is greater than that of silver medals, which is more significant than bronze medals, leading to an upward trend in their participation efficiency. Conversely, the efficiency of the remaining nine nations exhibited a declining trend. Overall, the accuracy rates for gold, silver, bronze, and total medals were 0.900, 0.880, 0.987, and 0.938, respectively. AI predictions should align with the trend, which indicates the ideal performance for a nation to achieve.