# Assessing the Probability of Winning a Point in Men's Padel: A Comprehensive Analysis
## 4 Discussion
This pattern supports the idea that the tactical advantage in serving fades after the first six shots [1; 36]. Consequently, in order to optimize training, it is suggested that the serving pair should seek to conclude the point quickly, taking advantage of their initial position close to the net, while the defending pair should prolong the rally, as following these guidelines significantly increases the chances of winning the point. In another sense, it is essential that coaches consider the option of creating training routines that cover both the return of serves to the server and the execution of defensive shots such as deep lobs to the corners of the court [39]. Previous studies have demonstrated that the lob is the most frequently utilized technique for reaching the net, a position on the court that subsequently increases the likelihood of winning points [20; 39; 40]. Points ending with shots from the middle area of the court were the most frequent in this study, as had been shown previously [15; 41], although they did not represent the area with the highest percentage of winners, as has been observed recently [18]. From the middle zone, except in short rallies, where there was a predominance of winners in the serving pair, similar numbers of points won by winners and unforced errors were recorded. In contrast, from the area furthest from the net, more unforced errors were observed in any type of rally. On the other hand, in shots close to the net, regardless of the type of rally, a higher proportion of winners was evident. Once again, it was confirmed that the probability of winning the point increases as the pair gets closer to the net as they have more chances to get a winner. On the other hand, hitting from the back of the court increases the likelihood of errors [15]. This is because when players play close to the net, they generally try to finish the point with a winner [42] whereas when they play from areas away from the net, they have less of an angle to play the ball to the fence [43]. Although previous research did not establish an explicit probability, it did highlight the tactical importance of getting close to the net or shortening-lengthening the length of the rally depending on whether the team was on serve or return. It is relevant to note that a higher percentage of winnerswas observed in long rallies compared to medium-length rallies. This discrepancy could have been due to accumulated fatigue during the prolongation of the point. As for the final hit, in our research, smashes (25.9%) stood out as the main option. This phenomenon can be attributed to the effectiveness of this stroke in padel, which is characterized by a relatively low rate of unforced errors. This stroke, aggressive and confident when the technique is mastered, is presumed to be a fundamental skill in professional players [3; 8]. It is clear that players are looking for opportunities throughout the point to execute a smash, but training this shot from less comfortable positions could be a valuable training strategy, given its high performance as a finishing stroke. The combination of fore-hand and backhand volleys (28.9%) outperformed the smash as the final shot, highlighting the importance of also optimizing this technical skill to close out points [44]. In relation to the direction of the final stroke, our study confirmed that the majority of points end with cross-court strokes, almost twice as often as parallel strokes and three times as often as strokes aimed at the center of the court. Although we did not carry out an analysis of all rally points, as was achieved in other research [8; 17], we can affirm that there is a clear tendency for the cross-court shot to be more effective in finishing a point. This observation aligns with previous findings [15] and is related to the difficulty of returning shots that bounce off the metal fence, the side wall, or the corner between the back wall and the side wall. This creates greater uncertainty for the opponent and increases the likelihood of mistakes [17].