# Multiscenario Simulation and Prediction of Land Use in Huaibei City Based on CLUE-S and PLUS Models
## 3 Results
### Multiscenario Simulation of Land Use Change in Huaibei City, 2020-2025  
#### 3.4.1 Multiple Scenario Settings  
Based on the General Land Use Plan of Huaibei City (2006-2020), the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of Huaibei City, and the Outline of Vision 2035, combined with the experience of previous scholars, four development scenarios were structured to study the future LU pattern of Huaibei City, including the natural growth scenario (NG), farmland protection scenario (FP), ecological protection scenario (EP), and farmland and ecological protection scenario (FEP). Changes in future LU patterns under different scenarios are predicted by modifying relevant parameters such as LU demand in the PLUS model. The LU demand from 2020 to 2025 in the scenarios is calculated by adapting the Markov transfer probabilities between LU types from 2015 to 2020.  
1. NG scenario: the transfer probability from 2020 to 2025 is presumed to grow naturally according to the evolutionary trend from 2015 to 2020.
2. FP scenario: Combined with the policies on farmland in China's LU plan and the 14 th Five-Year Plan, it is necessary to keep the quantity of farmland but also to protect the quality of farmland from declining and to implement the strictest farmland protection measures. Therefore, the transfer probability matrix under the FP scenario in this study is to reduce the transfer probability of farmland to other LU types by 50% under the NG scenario, whilst other LU types still maintain the natural development trend.
3. EP scenario: Farmland is also the main part of the farmland ecosystem. Therefore, the EP scenario is set to reduce the transfer probability of farmland, forestland, grassland, and water to construction land by 30%, 50%, 20%, and 20%, respectively. The transfer probability of forestland to grassland is reduced by 50%, increasing the transfer  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**User’s Accuracy** & **Farmland** & **Forestland** & **Grassland** & **Water** & **Construction Land** \\ \hline CLUE-S & 0.855 & 0.354 & 0.762 & 0.416 & 0.709 \\ PLUS & 0.867 & 0.485 & 0.796 & 0.611 & 0.728 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 4: User’s accuracy of CLUE-S and PLUS models at 30 m resolution.  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Area** & **Farmland** & **Forestland** & **Grassland** & **Water** & **Construction Land** \\ \hline CLUE-S simulation map & 42,302.61 & 1217.70 & 8398.89 & 3182.76 & 17,550.27 \\ PLUS simulation map & 42,258.87 & 1220.13 & 8425.98 & 3208.59 & 17,538.66 \\ Status map & 42,258.87 & 1220.13 & 8425.98 & 3208.59 & 17,538.66 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 3: Areas simulated by different models of LU type in 2020 (hm\({}^{2}\)).  
probability of water and grassland to forestland by 20% and the transfer probability of construction land to forestland by 10% under the NG scenario.
4. FEP scenario: In China's 14 th Five-Year Plan, it is mentioned that we need to implement sustainable development and strengthen ecological protection and restoration. Therefore, a more reasonable dual protection scenario is set up by integrating the FP scenario and EP scenario. Under the transfer probability based on natural growth, the transfer probability of farmland to other LU types (except forestland) is reduced by 50%. Forestland, grassland, and water to construction land is reduced by 50%, 20%, and 20%, respectively. Forestland is reduced by 50%, water and grassland to forestland is increased by 20%, and construction land to forestland is increased by 10%. The LU demand for each scenario was calculated based on the adjusted transfer probabilities of each LU type, and Table 5 shows the LU demand in 2025 under the four scenarios.