## 4 Discussion  
Serbian legislation concerning aflat in the dairy supply chain (from crops and feed to raw milk and final products) is mainly in line with EU regulation. For feedstuff used by dairy animals, the ML is fully harmonized with the EU legislation. However, for raw milk and dairy products, the ML limit in Serbia is five time higher than in the EU. Results presented in Table 1 show that almost half of the samples were above ML in the EU and almost one quarter below the Serbian ML. However, this is under control due to strict incoming control in dairy plants. It can be observed that the share of unsafe samples decreased from 46.2%/21.3% (raw milk compared to EU/Serbian ML) to 1.3%/0.1% (final dairy product compared to EU/Serbian ML). Compared with previous studies, average concentration of AFM1 in raw milk decreased from 0.282 ug kg\({}^{-1}\)[2] to average value of 0.142 ug kg\({}^{-1}\) (Table 1). A similar trend can be observed with final products where AFM1 concentration dropped from 0.268 ug kg\({}^{-1}\)[2] and 0.019 ug kg\({}^{-1}\)[17] to 0.016 ug kg\({}^{-1}\) (Table 1). It is obvious that controls (both incoming and final) within dairy plants play an essential role in preventing highly contaminated products entering the market. Good manufacturing practices in dairy plants as the final barriers are recognized as the most influential parameter. A survey on food safety management systems in dairy plants of Serbia showed that the majority have some type of a food safety system in place. The most important incentive for implementing such systems was in increasing and improving the safety and quality of dairy products [50]. Also, all dairy plant need to have an operative HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point)-based food safety system in place [51]. Regarding feed, the contamination of crops used as feed ingredients can occur in the field during the pre-harvest phase, during harvest, or in post-harvest stages [10]. Since AFM1 originates from AFB1 occurring in feed, it is obvious that agricultural practices are essential in keeping the level of aflatoxin throughout the dairy supply chain below ML. Two important facts need to be mentioned. First is the structure of average agricultural holding where the size of an average farm in Serbia is around 3 ha and most of these individual farms base their production only on meeting their own needs, with limited knowledge on agricultural practices [52]. The second issue is that HACCP-based food safety systems in dairy plants are mandatory [51] while implementation of good agricultural practices at farm level are voluntary. Figure 1: Comparison of estimated total daily intake of AFM1 after a Monte Carlo simulation of 100,000 iterations. (a) 1-day recall—Scenario 1; (b) 1-day recall—Scenario 2; (c) 7-day recall—Scenario 1; (d) 7-day recall—Scenario 2. Climatic condition is another factor that may affect AFs growth during pre-harvest and harvest stages, but can be fully controlled with the use of appropriate agricultural practices. Interrelation between climate conditions and crop productivity is dependent on the type of crop employed, climatic specifics of the region, type of soil, agricultural practices and exposure of crops to climatic conditions [53]. The climate of Serbia is considered as moderate-continental, being influenced by its geographic location and relief. All four seasons were equally pronounced with the mean annual air temperature between 11 \({}^{\circ}\)C and 12 \({}^{\circ}\)C, with average summer during summers between 21 \({}^{\circ}\)C and 22 \({}^{\circ}\)C and during winters between 0 \({}^{\circ}\)C and 2 \({}^{\circ}\)C (RHSS 2013). In case of normal weather conditions, crop production shows optimal yields. However, Europe as a continent with Serbia being a part of it, is suffering from anthropogenic influences which cause climate change in terms of temperature and precipitation patterns [54].