## 3 Result
### Analysis on the Factors of MOOC Learners' Dropout Behavior
#### 3.1.2 Analysis from the Learners' Learning Behavior  
(1) Relationship between dropout and active times  
We analyze the active times of learners in a period of time (40 days). In terms of the average active times of dropout students and students who normally complete their studies, the average active times of students who normally complete their studies in 40 days is 10.444 days, while the average active times of dropout students is 2.469 days, as shown in Figure 8. The results show that the active times of students is an important factor affecting dropout, and students who are inactive for a long time are likely to drop out.  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c} \hline \hline
**Dropout** & **No** & **Yes** \\
**Education Level** & & \\ \hline Bachelor’s & 0.120490 & 0.879510 \\ Doctorate & 0.153971 & 0.846029 \\ Less than Secondary & 0.142091 & 0.857909 \\ Master’s & 0.128045 & 0.871955 \\ Secondary & 0.119019 & 0.880981 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 6: Dropout rate among students with different academic qualifications  
Figure 8: Average active days of dropout students and non-dropout students.  
Figure 7: Dropout rate among students with different academic qualifications.  
The relationship between dropout and the number of videos played  
Playing video is an important way for learners to acquire knowledge in MOOC. Therefore, this paper counts the number of videos played to analyze its relationship with dropout behavior. The statistical results show that the average number of videos played by students who drop out of school is only 8.105305, while the average number of videos played by students who complete their study is 95.507208. Therefore, generally speaking, students who rarely play videos are more likely to drop out of school. Average number of videos played by dropout students and non-dropout students is shown as Figure 9.  
(3) Course cumulative days and dropout comparison  
Course cumulative days refer to the days accumulated from the beginning to the end of the course. After statistical analysis, the average learning days of dropout students are 47.189276 days, and the average learning days of students who have completed the course are 96.334563. It is obvious from Figure 10 that the average learning days of students who complete the course are 2x times more than those of students who dropout the course. From this, we can conclude that the longer students continue to study, the less likely they are to drop out of school.  
Figure 10: Comparison of average learning days between dropout students and students who normally complete their studies.  
Figure 9: Average number of videos played by dropout students and non-dropout students.  
The relationship between droppout and the number of forum posts  
In the MOOC learning process, because there is no face-to-face communication, learners have to attend classes alone, and their questions may not be answered. Learners' loneliness will reduce their learning experience and engagement [28]. Posting on the forum helps to reduce learners' loneliness [29], so we can start from the number of posting on the forum to analyze the dropout rate. Statistical analysis shows that the average number of Posts posted on the forum by students who normally complete their studies in course PH278X is 0.008716, while the number of students who drop out is 0.001133, indicating that students generally rarely post on the forum, and the proportion of Posts posted by students who dropout the course is less than the average number of students who complete their studies. Because both students who complete their studies and students who drop out seldom post, the number of posts may not effectively predict students' dropout.