# Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Power Systems: The Italian Case Study
## 5 Climate Change and Future Italian Power System Scenarios
### Comparison between European and Domestic Scenarios with Reference to the Italian Power System  
Given the results reported in Table 4 and the data shown in Figure 10, it is possible to compare the different scenarios and see if the trends shown in the BAU and NT scenarios are consistent with those reported in Table 4. Among the five scenarios considered in Table 3, the Small and Local scenario (in the 2030-2050 time horizon) is the closest to BAU and NT Italy (2025, 2030, 2040 time horizon) in terms of wind and PV generation. Figure 11 shows this comparison for wind and solar power generation technology. Figure 11 shows \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c} \hline \hline
**BAU** & **2025** & **2030** & **2040** \\ \hline Wind & 7.3\% & 7.7\% & 9.1\% \\ \hline PV & 9.4\% & 11.4\% & 16.1\% \\ \hline Hydro & 16.1\% & 16.5\% & 16.4\% \\ \hline Other RES & 7.6\% & 7.7\% & 6.8\% \\ \hline Thermoelectric & 49.4\% & 48.7\% & 45.8\% \\ \hline
**NT Italy** & **2025** & **2030** & **2040** \\ \hline Wind & 9.2\% & 12.1\% & 18.6\% \\ \hline PV & 12\% & 21.1\% & 22.8\% \\ \hline Hydro & 15\% & 14.8\% & 14.4\% \\ \hline Other RES & 7.1\% & 6.9\% & 6.8\% \\ \hline Thermoelectric & 44.5\% & 30.2\% & 27.8\% \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 5: Generation mix in time horizon 2025, 2030, 2040 in Italy for BAU and NT Italy scenarios. Figure 10: Italian generation forecast for the time horizon 2025, 2030, 2040: (**a**) PV; (**b**) wind. that in Europe, although wind power generation will be larger than PV, the growth rate of PV is larger than that of wind power. The rates of increase in wind and PV energy production for BAU and NT Italy scenarios are shown in Figure 12. The reference year is 2019, in coherence with previous figures. It is worth comparing the energy mix scenarios proposed in [13; 14; 45; 46]. As mentioned before, nuclear power generation in Italy is not likely in the near future, so the comparison here is made using wind, photovoltaic, hydro and thermoelectric generation. This comparison is meant to be complementary to the papers analyzed in this work, as the generation mix for Italy in 2040, evaluated for the BAU and NT Italy scenarios, is now compared with the energy mix scenario in [13] in 2050. BAU, NT Italy and the energy mix in [13] agree that PV generation will be higher than wind generation. Starting from the BAU scenario, it is possible to say that the BAU values for wind generation agree with the 60% scenario RES and the 80% scenario RES in [13], since wind energy increases in these last two scenarios compared with the BAU scenario in 2040. As for PV generation, the BAU value is plausible for 60% RES, but not for 80% RES, since in this scenario PV generation increases too much. For hydropower, the BAU value for 2040 is consistent with the values for the 60% RES and 80% RES scenarios. For thermoelectric generation, the BAU value is plausible with the value for 60% RES, but not for 80% RES, as the huge decrease in thermoelectric generation would not be compensated by any RES source. Figure 11: Comparison of energy production for the time horizon 2025, 2030, 2040, with respect to year 2019, for Small and Local scenario: (**a**) PV, (**b**) wind. Figure 12: Comparison of energy production for the time horizon 2025, 2030, 2040, with respect to year 2019, for both BAU and NT Italy scenarios: (**a**) PV, (**b**) wind. Considering NT Italy with the scenarios in [13], the results for 2040 in NT Italy and 60% RES and 80% RES for 2050 are not compatible, as Italy would reach a share of wind generation of 18.6% in 2040 (according to the NT scenario). For 2050 this value is expected to increase. For photovoltaic, as for BAU, the values are compatible for 60% RES, but not for 80% RES, where the generation share is too high. For hydropower, the results for NT Italy and 60% RES and 80% RES are compatible because hydropower generation is expected to remain stable over time.