## Appendix A Parameterization of the Probabilistic Effects in the Race Simulation  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c} \hline \hline
**Driver** & \(\mathbf{P_{\text{recident}}}\) **(2019)** & \(\mathbf{t_{\text{hyp,var}}}\) **in s (\(\mathcal{N}\left(\mathbf{\mu},\,\sigma^{2}\right)\))** & \(\mathbf{t_{\text{starpert}}}\) **in s (\(\mathcal{N}\left(\mathbf{\mu},\,\sigma^{2}\right)\))** \\ \hline [PERSON] & 0.045 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.628\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0.050,\left(0.168\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.058 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.737\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0.006,\left(0.148\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.045 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.606\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(-0.097,\left(0.126\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.058 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.533\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(-0.042,\left(0.125\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.058 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.517\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(-0.047,\left(0.112\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.058 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.586\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0.027,\left(0.146\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.072 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.759\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0.044,\left(0.174\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.058 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.608\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(-0.014,\left(0.171\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.058 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.499\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0.088,\left(0.245\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.058 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.642\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(-0.095,\left(0.135\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.058 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.603\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0.003,\left(0.142\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.045 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.459\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(-0.052,\left(0.098\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.058 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.473\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(-0.001,\left(0.171\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.058 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.548\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(-0.027,\left(0.115\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.045 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.591\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0.044,\left(0.154\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.045 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.841\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0.029,\left(0.128\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.072 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.612\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0.102,\left(0.156\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.045 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.458\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(-0.050,\left(0.115\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.058 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.550\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(-0.009,\left(0.152\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ [PERSON] & 0.058 & \(\mathcal{N}\left(0,\left(0.482\right)^{2}\right)\) & \(\mathcal{N}\left(-0.028,\left(0.135\right)^{2}\right)\) \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 1: Driver-specific parameterization for accident probability \(P_{\text{accident}}\), lap time variability \(h_{\text{lap,var}}\) and starting performance \(t_{\text{starpert}}\) for all drivers of the 2019 season. \(P_{\text{accident}}\) is season-specific, the other values are valid for all seasons 2014-2019.