## 5 Conclusions  
Taking Beijing as an example, this research first used the PLUS model and Markov chain model to project the land use for 2030 under three different scenarios based on physiographic driving factors, transportation driving factors and socioeconomic driving factors. These three different scenarios are the baseline scenario, cultivated land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario. Then, the Theil-Sen Median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall test were used to quantify and analyze the spatiotemporal changes in NPP (2000-2020). The R/S analysis and Hurst index method predict the future development trend of NPP according to the past trend of long time series data. Finally study the relationship between the cold and hot spots of land use and the change of NPP and verify whether it is consistent with the simulation results. The conclusions are divided into four specific sections:  
1. From 2000 to 2030, the main land use type in Beijing is forest whose proportion has been increasing. The future land use change will focus on cropland and impervious surface. Among the three scenarios, the cropland protection scenario is the only scenario in which cropland will not be transformed into impervious surface in a large area; the ecological protection scenario has good protection for forest land, wetland and water body, and the area basically does not change; in the baseline scenario, the land use change is the largest, and the area of impervious surface increases the most.
2. NPP of vegetation fluctuated and increased from 2000 to 2020 and the rising area accounted for 86.77% of the total area. The future change of the vegetation NPP showed a rise trend on the whole (rise areas and continuous rise areas account for 0.04% and 84.76%, respectively). The NPP of Beijing showed a strong improvement trend and will maintain.
3. The main land types in the hot spot areas of vegetation NPP are forest and grassland, and the main transformation of land use types is from grassland to forest. The cold spot areas are mainly concentrated in the periphery of urban areas and water areas.
4. The NPP increases occurred in highly developed urban zones with the growth of green land and the right ecological management and urban planning.  
**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, Y.C., J.W. and N.X.; methodology, Y.C., L.S. and J.X.; software, Y.C. and J.X.; validation, Y.C.; formal analysis, Y.C., L.S. and J.X.; investigation, Y.C., J.X. and L.S.; resources, Y.C. and L.S.; data curation, Y.C.; writing--original draft preparation, Y.C.; writing--review and editing, L.S. and J.W.; visualization, Y.C.; supervision, J.W.; project administration, J.W.; funding acquisition, J.W. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.  
**Funding:** This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.42171329, No.42071342, No.31870713) and the Natural Science Foundation of Beijing, China (Grant No.8222069, No 8222052).  
**Institutional Review Board Statement:** Not applicable.  
**Informed Consent Statement:** Not applicable.  
**Data Availability Statement:** Not applicable.  
**Acknowledgments:** We are grateful to the undergraduate students and staff of the Laboratory of Forest Management and \"3S\" technology, Beijing Forestry University.  
**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript; or in the decision to publish the results.