# Modeling the 2013 Zika Outbreak in French Polynesia: Intervention Strategies
## 2 Related Work  
The conventional SEIR/SIR/SIS mathematical models have been used to model outbreaks and predict the scale of epidemics in the past. A review of the basic SIR model and its variations for modeling Dengue outbreaks is presented by [PERSON] [14]. The basic SIR model for infectious diseases, and the general setup for mathematical models for vector borne diseases have been described in detail in this work. The transmission dynamics of Zika in French Polynesia have been studied to predict the scale of future epidemics in the island populations in [6]. In this study, the authors use a mathematical model to estimate the basic reproduction number for the ZIKV virus in six archipelagos in French Polynesia. However, the mosquito population is scaled relative to the size of the human population, and human travel patterns are not considered for the model, making the human population on each island static. Additionally, the variation in the outbreak outcomes with change in mosquito population due to climatic changes or intervention strategies has not been studied in [6]. The importance of human travel in a disease outbreak for H1N1 and influenza is highlighted in [15; 16], respectively. The authors in [16] show that frequent travelers affect the spread of disease only if they are infected early in the outbreak and the spread of the disease is not rapid. This result is important with respect to Zika because of the low ranging basic reproduction number for Zika, which highlights the importance of international travelers in Zika outbreaks. The effect of climate on the mosquito breeding cycle is discussed in [17; 18]. They present mathematical and compartmental models to include seasonal variations in predicting the population dynamics of mosquitoes.  
Figure 1: Phase 1 and 2: Interaction between the three compartmental models. Red solid arrows indicate mortality and removal from the system. Red dashed arrows indicate contact between infectious and susceptible entities. The dotted arrow from Susceptibles to Exposed indicates indirect movement from S to E, dependent on the infectious mosquitoes/humans. Solid arrows indicate direct movement from one compartment to another.  
In this paper, human travel patterns and temperature dependent mosquito ecology have been integrated with the conventional human and vector compartmental models to improve the system's realism and to study the change in the outbreak outcomes as these two parameters are varied. Furthermore, the measure of effectiveness of mosquito control and bite prevention methods, and travel advisories to control or prevent the outbreak is a novel contribution of this study. This model can be extended to control the mosquito population in areas with large mosquito populations that are also visited by a high number of humans if the commute data is available as highlighted by [PERSON] and [PERSON] in [PERSON] and [PERSON] (2018). They have investigated the role of highly structured human commuting patterns in metropolitan cities in the epidemiology of Dengue. The impact of spatial heterogeneity of resources like hosts and breeding sites on the size of mosquito population in an area is modeled in [PERSON] and [PERSON] (2018). The mosquito population is assumed to be uniformly distributed across the islands in our system which can be extended to take into account breeding sites and number of humans given land use data.