# Modeling the Trip Distributions of Tourists Based on Trip Chain and Entropy-Maximizing Theory
## 5 Case Study
### Results and Analysis
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c} \hline \hline
**Trip Chain** & **Trip** & **Trip Chain** & **Trip Volume** \\
**Type** & **Probability** & **Volume** & **(including Trip Times)** \\ \hline simple trip chain & 0.78 & 7,580,051 & 15,120,493 \\ complex trip chain & 0.22 & 2,159,949 & 4,319,897 \\ total & 1 & 9,740,000 & 19,440,390 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 4: The trip volume of different trip chain types. Figure 7: The distribution of the trip probability of the first 15 trip chains. It can be seen from Table 6 that traffic zone 8 and traffic zone 9 have a relatively large volume of trips. Thus, it can be inferred that the majority of the trips of tourists to scenic spots are based on railway and road. Note that the volume of trips between some scenic spots is very small, e.g., the trips between traffic zone 1 and 2. The main reason could be that the origin zones of these trip chains are traffic zone 8 and 9, they are far away from traffic zone 1 and 2, resulting in a small result of the model. We can draw trip expectation lines (i.e., origin-destination flows of expected trips) based on the trip distribution, as shown in Figure 9. It shows that the volume of trips from the traffic zones based on scenic spot 3 and other scenic spots to the traffic zones based on the north railway station and the road entrances/exits is relatively large, followed by the traffic volume from the traffic zones based on scenic spot 2, 4, and 5 to the traffic zones based on the north railway station and the road entrances/exits. Constrained by the visiting volume of stay points, the trip volume of traffic zones based on transportation hubs is the largest, followed by the trip volume between traffic zones where tourists visit more. These results are consistent with the trip distribution between traffic zones. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline  & **1** & **2** & **3** & **4** & **5** & **6** & **7** & **8** & **9** \\ \hline
1 & 0 & 86 & 5035 & 34,829 & 142,783 & 77,663 & 115,083 & 59,784 & 139,798 \\
2 & 30 & 0 & 6489 & 46,715 & 201,113 & 108,646 & 153,099 & 243,055 & 531,318 \\
3 & 453 & 1655 & 0 & 44,640 & 200,411 & 106,623 & 196,085 & 973,308 & 1,981,777 \\
4 & 539 & 2050 & 7680 & 0 & 7465 & 3878 & 31,080 & 287,882 & 545,574 \\
5 & 658 & 2630 & 10,273 & 2224 & 0 & 366 & 25,087 & 373,347 & 668,736 \\
6 & 160 & 633 & 2437 & 515 & 163 & 0 & 3896 & 147,907 & 267,426 \\
7 & 5875 & 22,181 & 111,360 & 102,591 & 277,942 & 96,829 & 0 & 1,705,019 & 1,815,069 \\
8 & 166,177 & 388,441 & 1,083,681 & 212,398 & 70,919 & 8334 & 1,860,353 & 0 & 0 \\
9 & 401,168 & 872,790 & 2,277,997 & 442,236 & 182,525 & 20,797 & 1,752,184 & 0 & 0 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 6: Trip distribution of each traffic zone (number of tourists). Figure 9: The origin–destination flows of expected trips. Screenline Test  
To test the accuracy of trip distribution between scenic spots, the traffic volume that is already known needs to be used to make judgments. This paper sets screenlines between traffic zones to facilitate the test. Table 7 shows the areas separated by screenlines. Specifically, as shown in Figure 10, the boundary of the traffic zone of scenic spot 1 was set as screenline 1; the boundary of the traffic zone of scenic spot 3 was set as screenline 2; the boundary line that encloses traffic zone 2 and 4 was set as screenline 3; the boundary line that encloses the traffic zones of scenic spot 5 and 6 was set as screenline 4. Then, the road traffic volume was converted into the trip volume of tourists, and the trip OD volume was allocated to the traffic network of the screenlines. The actual passenger flow of each screenline was obtained by calculating the annual traffic flow volume of relevant roads crossing the screenlines. It has been further converted into the number of tourists. Particularly, the traffic flow data was collected from the investigation of the number, license plate, and model of vehicles passing the road check