# Evaluation and Prediction of Ecological Benefits in Song-Liao River Basin
## 5 Conclusions  
1. This study assessed the spatiotemporal features and evolving patterns of ecological benefits in the Song-Liao River Basin from 1990 to 2020 from ecological quality, ecosystem services, and macro-ecosystem structure perspectives. According to the evaluation's findings, the macro-ecosystem structure of the Song-Liao River Basin exhibits varying trends throughout time due to climatic and human causes, but overall, the structure is stable. The ecosystem service as a whole had a trend of declining and then growing. Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains and the northern Changbai Mountains have more significant regional ecosystem service indices than the center region and places with frequent human activity. The ecosystem quality index exhibited a moderate rising trend between 1990 and 2020, and its regional distribution characteristics were comparable to those of the Ecosystem service index. The combined effects of climate conditions and human activity shape the distribution pattern of the ecosystem quality and service indexes. 2. The spatial distribution characteristics of the county average values of the ecosystem quality index and Ecosystem service index in 2030 are produced after screening the prediction models based on four neural networks. Most of the Song-Liao River Basin's ecosystem quality index and Ecosystem service index will trend upward in the future, with rare regions seeing a declining trend. The phenomenon under investigation maybe attributed to the decline of woodland and soil erosion along the river. Further research is necessary to determine the precise mechanism of this phenomenon and to inform proactive measures taken by these places to prevent the degradation of the natural environment. 3. By assessing the overall ecological benefits and predicting the future situation, it is considered that the vast forest resources should be fully and reasonably developed based on protecting the existing ecological benefits in the future development planning of the Song-Liao River Basin. Thoroughly plan the plantation planted recently and the planned new afforestation in the future, and develop the carbon-sink afforestation projects of CCER according to the management measures. For the natural forests, which are widely distributed but have low forest quality and carbon sink rate, the methodology for the management of natural forests should be developed according to local conditions to achieve synergy between environmental conservation and economic development. Conceptualization, J.C. and J.L. ; Methodology, J.C., J.L., Y.C. and J.Z. ; Software, J.C., J.L., Y.C. and J.Z. ; Validation, J.C., J.L., B.B., X.H. and Y.H. ; Formal analysis, J.C., J.L., B.B. and J.Z. ; Investigation, J.C. and M.L. ; Resources, J.C. and S.W. ; Data curation, J.C. and J.Z. ; Writing--original draft preparation, J.C.; writing--review and editing, J.C., X.H. and M.L. ; Visualization, J.C., B.B. and S.W. ; Supervision, S.W. ; Project administration, S.W. ; Funding acquisition, S.W. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. This research was funded by the Study on Green Governance and Mechanism of Carbon Sequestration Afforestation in Mountainous Areas of Yunnan (No. SYSX202212). The data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author. [PERSON] is employed by China Testing and Certification International Group Co., Ltd., and [PERSON] is employed by Beijing Zhonglei Ecological Technology Co., Ltd. These two authors declare that the research topic of this paper is the evaluation and prediction of ecological benefits in Song-Liao River Basin. This study is carried out independently on the basis of following scientific research norms and moral standards. This study did not receive any financial support from any specific projects or stakeholders within the enterprise which affected the fairness of the study. There is no direct or indirect commercial conflict of interest in the products, technologies or markets related to this study.