## 4 Results
### Performance of the Models
#### 4.1.1 Error Rates for Geography Categories
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c} \hline
**Geography** & **Category** & **Model** & **MSE** & **MAE** & **RMSE** & **MAPE** & **R2** \\ \hline \multirow{6}{*}{New} & ARIMA & 0.0059 & 0.0705 & 0.0768 & 0.0835 & 0.3275 \\  & LSTM & 0.0038 & 0.0493 & 0.0619 & 0.0613 & 0.5627 \\  & \multirow{2}{*}{New Cancer Cases} & _Hybrid_ & _0.0018_ & _0.0258_ & _0.0427_ & _0.0343_ & _0.7917_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.0048 & 0.0594 & 0.0694 & 0.0726 & 0.4504 \\ \cline{2-8}  & \multirow{4}{*}{Cancer Incidence Rate} & ARIMA & 0.0060 & 0.0605 & 0.0776 & 0.0657 & 0.4920 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0023 & 0.0350 & 0.0480 & 0.0433 & 0.5112 \\  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0011_ & _0.0252_ & _0.0325_ & _0.0281_ & _0.7727_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.0068 & 0.0741 & 0.0823 & 0.0851 & \(-1.1331\) \\ \hline \multirow{6}{*}{Newfoundland and Labrador} & \multirow{4}{*}{New Cancer Cases} & ARIMA & 0.0062 & 0.0634 & 0.0790 & 0.0748 & 0.2867 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0155 & 0.0778 & 0.1244 & 0.0997 & 0.6262 \\  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0003_ & _0.0141_ & _0.0169_ & _0.0154_ & _0.9763_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.0122 & 0.0816 & 0.1105 & 0.0895 & \(-2.8241\) \\ \cline{2-8}  & \multirow{4}{*}{Cancer Incidence Rate} & ARIMA & 0.0060 & 0.0658 & 0.0776 & 0.0718 & 0.3345 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0119 & 0.0692 & 0.1093 & 0.0844 & 0.7782 \\  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0007_ & _0.0211_ & _0.0274_ & _0.0222_ & _0.9157_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.0109 & 0.0766 & 0.1046 & 0.0819 & \(-0.3781\) \\ \hline \multirow{6}{*}{Northwest Territories} & \multirow{4}{*}{New Cancer Cases} & ARIMA & 0.0194 & 0.1343 & 0.1394 & 0.1676 & 0.1355 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0128 & 0.0908 & 0.1132 & 0.1170 & 0.6193 \\  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0052_ & _0.0601_ & _0.0721_ & _0.0842_ & _0.8061_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.0252 & 0.1397 & 0.1589 & 0.1923 & 0.1366 \\ \cline{2-8}  & \multirow{4}{*}{Cancer Incidence Rate} & ARIMA & 0.0200 & 0.0995 & 0.1414 & 0.1293 & 0.07207 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0164 & 0.0809 & 0.1279 & 0.1113 & 0.2239 \\  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0076_ & _0.0672_ & _0.0869_ & _0.0922_ & _0.5949_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.0155 & 0.1101 & 0.1245 & 0.1375 & 0.3650 \\ \hline \multirow{6}{*}{Nova Scotia} & \multirow{4}{*}{New Cancer Cases} & ARIMA & 0.0062 & 0.0634 & 0.0790 & 0.0748 & 0.2867 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0004 & 0.0163 & 0.0206 & 0.0119 & 0.7926 \\  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0002_ & _0.0118_ & _0.0139_ & _0.0125_ & _0.8699_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.0091 & 0.0694 & 0.0951 & 0.0767 & 0.4746 \\ \cline{2-8}  & \multirow{4}{*}{Cancer Incidence Rate} & ARIMA & 0.0054 & 0.0661 & 0.0737 & 0.0780 & 0.6996 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0087 & 0.0866 & 0.0939 & 0.0960 & 0.3972 \\  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0003_ & _0.0145_ & _0.0165_ & _0.0164_ & _0.9188_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.0058 & 0.0641 & 0.0990 & 0.0735 & \(-1.7068\) \\ \hline \multirow{6}{*}{Nunavut} & \multirow{4}{*}{New Cancer Cases} & ARIMA & 0.0038 & 0.0379 & 0.0617 & 0.0826 & 0.3726 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0030 & 0.0431 & 0.0549 & 0.0744 & 0.9006 \\  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0022_ & _0.0289_ & _0.0469_ & _0.0557_ & _0.9356_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.0309 & 0.1348 & 0.1757 & 0.2021 & 0.2435 \\ \cline{2-8}  & \multirow{4}{*}{Cancer Incidence Rate} & ARIMA & 0.0010 & 0.0255 & 0.0260 & 0.0566 & 0.4159 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0041 & 0.0373 & 0.0640 & 0.0837 & 0.7505 \\  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0009_ & _0.0233_ & _0.0298_ & _0.0422_ & _0.9471_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.0231 & 0.1117 & 0.1521 & 0.1067 & 0.1507 \\ \hline \multirow{6}{*}{Ontario} & \multirow{4}{*}{New Cancer Cases} & ARIMA & 0.0081 & 0.0614 & 0.0901 & 0.0693 & 0.3200 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0043 & 0.0496 & 0.0658 & 0.0563 & 0.2001 \\ \cline{1-1}  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0019_ & _0.0283_ & _0.0436_ & _0.0329_ & _0.6904_ \\ \cline{1-1}  & & Prophet & 0.0035 & 0.0517 & 0.0589 & 0.0570 & 0.1763 \\ \cline{1-1} \cline{2-8}  & \multirow{4}{*}{Cancer Incidence Rate} & ARIMA & 0.0191 & 0.0910 & 0.1083 & 0.0936 & 0.55701 \\ \cline{1-1}  & & LSTM & 0.0107 & 0.0631 & 0.1035 & 0.0840 & 0.4479 \\ \cline{1-1}  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0021_ & _0.0344_ & _0.0459_ & _0.0388_ & _0.6580_ \\ \cline{1-1}  & & Prophet & 0.0128 & 0.1011 & 0.1212 & 0.1162 & \(-0.5615\) \\ \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 1: _Cont._