# Evolution of the Seismic Forecast System Implemented for the Vrancea Area (Romania)
For example, local magnitude (ML) is commonly used in earthquake catalogs, while seismic hazard models are based on moment magnitude (Mw). This discrepancy also presents challenges for NIEP's OEF, particularly in estimating the 'a' and 'b' coefficients in the Gutenberg-Richter law. Real-time seismic bulletins from NIEP include arrival times and magnitudes from contributing stations, but only event locations are typically retained in the public catalog. [PERSON] et al. (2024) [7] analyzed the global status of OEF systems in Italy, New Zealand, and the United States, highlighting significant heterogeneity in methodology. Even the application of ETAS models varies across these countries, and analyses typically rely solely on seismic catalog data. The interpretation of the Gutenberg-Richter 'b' value is particularly contentious, as its variability depends heavily on a region's specific seismic and geological characteristics [10]. For example, in Vrancea, a region prone to deep earthquakes, the 'b' value tends to decrease before a major event [4], whereas in regions like New Zealand, it may initially increase before normalizing [11]. [PERSON] et al. [12] described multidisciplinary monitoring networks in China, Greece, Italy, Japan, Russia, and the USA as part of OEF systems focused on short-term earthquake forecasting. Using the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake as an example, the study underscored that while earthquakes may be predictable in hindsight, real-time forecasting remains complex. [PERSON] et al. (2013) pose the question: Is an operational earthquake forecast (OEF) feasible at the European level? Their conclusion: \"Our thesis here is straightforward: unified European operational earthquake forecasting is, for the foreseeable future, unlikely. But progress is being made at the national level, and the advances made in each nation can, with some modification, apply elsewhere\". NIEP's OEF system incorporates a wide range of precursor parameters including radon (in air, water, and in soil), CO\({}_{2}\), electromagnetic anomalies, thermal changes, infrasound, acoustic noise, and ground deformation. To gain international recognition and be featured in global analyses like those in ([PERSON] et al., 2014; [PERSON] et al., 2014; [PERSON] et al., 2014), the system requires visibility through peer-reviewed publications and international conference presentations. The AFROS platform is already operational and publicly accessible. The TURNKey project (Towards more Earthquake-resilient Urban Societies through a Multi-sensor-based Information System enabling Earthquake Forecasting, Early Warning, and Rapid Response Actions, [[https://earthquake-turnkey.eu/the-project/](https://earthquake-turnkey.eu/the-project/)]([https://earthquake-turnkey.eu/the-project/](https://earthquake-turnkey.eu/the-project/)), accessed on 2 March 2025) incorporated an OEF system alongside traditional seismic methods based only on seismicity, an Earthquake Early Warning (EEW), and a Rapid Response to Earthquakes (RRE). This complex project, in which NIEP was a partner, included a cost-benefit analysis to evaluate the feasibility of an OEF system before seismic events in Europe (2014). One aspect of this analysis, presented in (2014), examined whether it would be cost-effective to evacuate populations in high seismic-risk scenarios. There are no real-time data or results on the project website ([[https://earthquake-turnkey.eu/the-project/](https://earthquake-turnkey.eu/the-project/)]([https://earthquake-turnkey.eu/the-project/](https://earthquake-turnkey.eu/the-project/)), accessed on 2 March 2025). One reason is the complexity of the system and the implemented solutions involving numerous partners and resources (i.e., what was mentioned in (2014)). By contrast, the AFROS project developed a fully functional platform using real-time data for Vrancea. Given the high seismic potential of the region, where earthquakes up to magnitude 7.5 (Richter scale) can occur, protocols are in place to prevent public panic during high-alert periods.