## 1 Introduction  
The Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) is exposed to the factors of climate change that drastically affect numerous natural (seas, lakes, rivers, forests, tundra,landscapes, soils, biodiversity, etc.) and socio-economic (population, demography, human resources, employment, health of people, industry, oil and gas production, mining of coal, metal ones, diamonds, fishery, agriculture, forestry, water management, energy production and transportation, aerial, road, railway and water transport, etc.) systems of this territory [1]. On 10 October 2022, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) issued the \"Third Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences in the Territory of the Russian Federation\" [1]. The major conclusion in this report states that the entire territory of the country is warming at an average rate of 0.51 \({}^{\circ}\)C per decade while the AZRF is warming at an average rate of 0.71 \({}^{\circ}\)C per decade. According to current forecasts, the area occupied by near-surface permafrost in the territory of Russia will decrease by the middle of the 21 st century according to the SSP2-4.5 scenario by 22 \(\pm\) 7% and for the SSP5-8.5 scenario by 28 \(\pm\) 10% as compared to the period 1995-2014. By the end of the 21 st century, this reduction is expected to be at the level of 40 \(\pm\) 15% and 72 \(\pm\) 20%, respectively [1,2]. The subarctic zone of Russia hosts vast oil and gas, sea, railway, and pipeline transport infrastructure worth hundreds of billions of dollars. This region being covered with permafrost is also vulnerable to climate change because the thawing of frozen layers due to significant ice content may cause an average soil settlement of 10-20 cm per year [2], which is critical for pile structures and the entire transport infrastructure in general [3,4]. [PERSON] et al. [5] showed that in 1999-2020, the Republic of Karelia, Murmansk and Arkhangelsk Oblasts (Regions) experienced significant climate warming at a rate from +0.9 \({}^{\circ}\)C to +1.5 \({}^{\circ}\)C as compared to previous years (1977-1998). A sharp increase in air temperature at a rate from +0.4 \({}^{\circ}\)C to +1.0 \({}^{\circ}\)C per decade resulted in the displacement of the +2 \({}^{\circ}\)C isotherm for 550 km northwards up to the White Sea southern part and induced the total disappearance of average negative temperatures in the Republic of Karelia, Murmansk and Arkhangelsk Oblasts. The railway infrastructure in the subarctic territories of Russia is naturally operated in extremely difficult geological and climatic conditions, being exposed to the continuous negative impact of various external factors, leading to deformation of railway tracks and damage of artificial structures [1,3]. Thawing of permafrost soils and significant increase in average temperature cause further changes in the water balance of numerous rivers and lakes in this region. These processes intensify coastal abrasion, erosion, mudflows, floods, landslides, ground creep, rockfalls, rocksslides, karst sinkholes, snow avalanches, etc. [1,3,5,6]. Isolated permafrost zones may still be found on the Kola Peninsula [7]. Russian railway facilities in this region are particularly vulnerable to the negative factors of regional climate change, considering their intense development. It is planned that the Murmansk section of the Oktyabrskaya Railway will increase transportation from 28 to 44 million tons per year by 2023, and by 2035 it should grow up to 100 million tons. At the same time, some railway sections are still single-track, which limits their carrying capacity [8]. Extensive railway infrastructure is located in the Northwestern and Ural Federal Districts of Russia. The Northwestern Federal District (NFD) covers 9.8% of the country's territory; 9.5% of the Russian population lives here [9].