## 3 Calculation of Charging Station Demand
### Forecasting Electric Vehicle Demand Growth  
Kazakhstan is a growing country with a relatively small number of electric vehicles in its current state. However, several studies, such as [20; 21], have indicated that there has been significant growth in EV vehicles registered for the 2022-2024 period. According to relevant research in the field, such as [14], this trend is consistent with the global trend of growth in the number of electric vehicles, both in relative and absolute terms. Therefore, the global average market trend can be applied to forecast the electric vehicle market, both by country and by city. The base values of this trend should be taken as the number of electric vehicles in Kazakhstan for the period 2017-2023. To estimate the future demand for electric vehicles and charging stations, an average annual sales growth rate of 10% was applied. This growth rate aligns with global and regional trends, which indicate an increasing market share for electric vehicles. According to the research provided by the Astana International Financial Centre [22], the EV sales in Kazakhstan are evaluated at 2.5-2.7 thousand in 2023 and are estimated to reach approx. 3000 by the end of 2024. The annual forecasts based on electricity consumption prediction are estimated to reach approx. 40,000 units by 2035.  
To enhance the accuracy of our projections, we introduced an adjustment factor of 0.98. This factor accounts for potential changes in electricity consumption, shifts in user behavior, and advancements in charging technologies. This correction helps avoid overestimation of infrastructure needs and provides a more realistic representation of operational conditions.  
\[S_{h_{i}} =[2.1,2.2,2.52,2.73,3.045],\quad i=2020,2021,\ldots,2024, \tag{3}\] \[S_{p_{j}} =3.35\times 1.1^{(j-2024)},\quad j=2025,2026,\ldots,2035,\] \[N_{c_{n}} =\sum_{i=1}^{n}\Bigl{(}\left(S_{h_{i}}+S_{p_{j}}\right)\times 9.8 \Bigr{)},\]  
where \(S_{h}\) is historical sales per year (total in Kazakhstan), \(S_{p}\) is projected sales based on market growth, and \(N_{c}\) is the cumulative stations needed for the country's road infrastructure.  
Based on the adjusted electric vehicle sales data, we calculated the required number of charging stations. The formula used assumes 1 charging station for every 50 electric vehicles, in accordance with international infrastructure standards and recommendations. The final results were visualized and presented in the form of graphs and tables, illustrating the following:  
Annual electric vehicle sales (in thousands of units). The required number of charging stations to meet demand. The cumulative number of charging stations needed to meet growing demand over time.  
Our forecast indicates steady growth in demand for charging stations, reflecting the overall trajectory of the electric vehicle market in Kazakhstan. This model offers a structured, data-driven approach to infrastructure planning, ensuring timely adaptation to changing conditions. It also supports sustainable development in the transportation sector, aimed at reducing the carbon footprint and improving energy efficiency.  
As can be observed in Figures 1 and 2, the demand for EV charging stations is growing. By 2030, approximately 8.00 charging stations will be required. By 2035, this number should exceed 1400 to support the growing electric vehicle fleet. Engagement from both the public and private sectors is crucial for investing in charging infrastructure, especially in regions with lower station densities.