## 3 Results and Discussion
### Land Use Impacts of USA Ethanol Mandate
* _Experiment D._ An increase in corn ethanol production from its 2004 level (3.41 billion gallons [BG]) to 15 BG, using a land supply tree including a two-nest land cover structure with regional land transformation rates presented in Table 2.  
To implement these experiments the GTAP-BIO modeling framework used in [PERSON] _et al._[18] is modified to handle the new land supply nesting structure with regional land transformation elasticities. The land use consequences of the first two experiments A and B are presented and compared in Table 3. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l r r r r r r} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Regions**} & \multicolumn{3}{c}{**Experiment A: Uniform land transformation**} & \multicolumn{3}{c}{**Experiment B: Regional land**} \\  & \multicolumn{3}{c}{**rates of \(\mathrm{ETL1}=-0.2\) and \(\mathrm{ETL2}=-0.75\)**} & \multicolumn{3}{c}{**transformation rates Presented in Table 1**} \\ \cline{2-7}  & **Forest** & **Cropland** & **Pasture** & **Forest** & **Cropland** & **Pasture** \\ \hline USA & \(-357.4\) & \(1033.3\) & \(-675.8\) & \(-91.6\) & \(155.7\) & \(-64.1\) \\ \hline EU27 & \(-85.8\) & \(136.2\) & \(-50.4\) & \(-21.2\) & \(33.6\) & \(-12.5\) \\ \hline BRAZIL & \(-3.6\) & \(91.6\) & \(-88.0\) & \(21.7\) & \(152.1\) & \(-173.8\) \\ \hline CAN & \(-123.9\) & \(184.5\) & \(-60.6\) & \(-29.4\) & \(41.0\) & \(-11.7\) \\ \hline JAPAN & \(-3.0\) & \(3.5\) & \(-0.5\) & \(-5.3\) & \(5.3\) & \(0.0\) \\ \hline CHIHKG & \(17.1\) & \(59.4\) & \(-76.4\) & \(-13.2\) & \(89.7\) & \(-76.5\) \\ \hline INDIA & \(-2.2\) & \(5.2\) & \(-3.0\) & \(-7.4\) & \(10.7\) & \(-3.3\) \\ \hline C\_C\_Amer & \(34.8\) & \(22.3\) & \(-57.1\) & \(1.8\) & \(5.3\) & \(-7.0\) \\ \hline S o Amer & \(85.8\) & \(67.1\) & \(-152.9\) & \(45.5\) & \(111.8\) & \(-157.3\) \\ \hline E Asia & \(4.3\) & \(0.8\) & \(-5.1\) & \(2.2\) & \(1.5\) & \(-3.7\) \\ \hline Mala Indo & \(8.2\) & \(-4.6\) & \(-3.6\) & \(1.4\) & \(1.6\) & \(-3.0\) \\ \hline R SE Asia & \(2.5\) & \(2.8\) & \(-5.3\) & \(-12.3\) & \(14.4\) & \(-2.1\) \\ \hline R S Asia & \(-2.0\) & \(24.9\) & \(-23.0\) & \(-3.2\) & \(23.5\) & \(-20.3\) \\ \hline Russia & \(194.3\) & \(9.5\) & \(-203.9\) & \(94.3\) & \(52.1\) & \(-146.4\) \\ \hline Oth CEE CIS & \(-22.6\) & \(110.3\) & \(-87.7\) & \(-8.8\) & \(27.5\) & \(-18.8\) \\ \hline Oth Europe & \(-0.1\) & \(1.7\) & \(-1.6\) & \(-0.3\) & \(0.4\) & \(-0.1\) \\ \hline MEAS\_NAfr & \(-0.1\) & \(89.6\) & \(-89.5\) & \(-0.1\) & \(21.1\) & \(-21.0\) \\ \hline S S AFR & \(-48.7\) & \(284.3\) & \(-235.7\) & \(-213.9\) & \(470.5\) & \(-256.6\) \\ \hline Oceania & \(-0.9\) & \(89.2\) & \(-88.3\) & \(-0.9\) & \(16.8\) & \(-15.9\) \\ \hline Total & \(-303.3\) & \(2211.7\) & \(-1908.4\) & \(-240.6\) & \(1234.6\) & \(-994.0\) \\ \hline \multicolumn{7}{c}{Cropland Pasture} \\ \hline USA & & \(-1218.6\) & & \(-1793.7\) & \\ \hline Brazil & & \(-271.5\) & & \(-221.2\) & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 3: Induced land use changes due to USA ethanol mandate with one-nest land cover: Uniform _versus_ regional land transformation rates (figures are in 1000 hectares). Table 3 indicates that experiment B with the new regional land transformation rates projects an expansion in global cropland by about 1.2 MH, which is significantly smaller (by 44%) than the corresponding figure obtained from experiment A with uniform land transformation values. The geographical distribution of induced cropland expansion indicates the share of USA changes from 47% to 13% when we use the regional parameters. We checked to see if there was a significant yield increase due to intensification from the CET parameter change, and found that the changes were small in all regions. The shares of EU27, Canada, also fall significantly. On the other hand the shares of several other regions (in particular, S_S_AFR and S_o_Amer) go up. Incorporation of the regional land transformation elasticities increases the share of forest in expanded cropland from 13.7% to 19.5% at the global scale.