# Estimating Destination of Bus Trips Considering Trip Type Characteristics
## 5 Results
### Estimated Results of Destination by Trip Type Characteristics  
We calculated the estimation rate and accuracy for each trip type to validate the effectiveness of the methodology proposed in this study. The estimation rate refers to the percentage of the trips for which we can estimate the alighting stops satisfying the alighting stop estimation criteria for each stage. For the accuracy, we analyzed whether the estimated alighting stops were similar to the actual alighting stops, respectively, or comparatively analyzed the results according to the straight distance (0-1500 m) between the estimated and actual alighting stops (see Table 5). Lastly, we performed the validation for each day of the week to determine whether the travel patterns in each day of the week (weekdays/weekends) were appropriately reflected in the estimation (see Figure 4). Under the assumption that the alighting tag data of the public transportation cards were 100% missing, the analysis indicated that 49.66% of the estimated stops were similar to the actual stops, and in the case of less than 1 km, the destination could be identified for 85.00%. Upon analyzing the accuracy in each stage based on a range within 1 km, we determined that the accuracy was 94.39% for the continuous travels, 81.55% for the non-continuous, non-recurrent travels, 66.53% for the non-continuous, non-recurrent travels, and 44.92% for the route patterns. The assumption of the trip-chain-based alighting stop estimation method for continuous travels, i.e., the assumption that the passenger begins the next trip around the destination of the previous trip is valid. Furthermore, it is effective to apply the trip-chain-based alighting stop estimation methods to Stage 1. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multicolumn{2}{c}{**Division**} & \multicolumn{1}{c}{**Continuous Travel**} & \multicolumn{1}{c}{**Non-Continuous Recurrent Travel**} & \multicolumn{1}{c}{**Non-Continuous Non-Recurrent Travel**} & \multicolumn{1}{c}{**Route Pattern**} & \multicolumn{1}{c}{**Total**} \\ \hline \multicolumn{2}{c}{Number of data} & 142,743,224 & 13,377,146 & 41,760,849 & 13,038,870 & 210,920,089 \\ \hline \multicolumn{2}{c}{Ration} & 67.68\% & 6.34\% & 19.80\% & 6.18\% & 100.00\% \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{Same} & matches & 85,533,555 & 5,657,869 & 11,947,068 & 1,606,002 & \\ \cline{2-6}  & accuracy & 59.92\% & 42.30\% & 28.61\% & 12.32\% & \\ \cline{2-6}  & matches (accumulate) & 85,533,555 & 91,191,424 & 103,138,492 & 104,744,494 & 49.66\% \\ \cline{2-6}  & accuracy (accumulate) & 59.92\% & 58.41\% & 52.12\% & 49.66\% & \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{500 m} & matches & 120,740,211 & 9,325,434 & 21,519,778 & 3,576,205 & \\ \cline{2-6}  & accuracy & 84.59\% & 69.71\% & 51.53\% & 27.43\% & \\ \cline{2-6}  & matches (accumulate) & 120,740,211 & 130,065,645 & 151,585,423 & 155,161,628 & \\ \cline{2-6}  & accuracy (accumulate) & 84.59\% & 83.31\% & 76.60\% & 73.56\% & \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{1000 m} & matches & 134,729,489 & 10,909,099 & 27,783,953 & 5,856,696 & \\ \cline{2-6}  & accuracy & 94.39\% & 81.55\% & 66.53\% & 44.92\% & \\ \cline{2-6}  & matches (accumulate) & 134,729,489 & 145,638,588 & 173,422,541 & 179,279,237 & \\ \cline{2-6}  & accuracy (accumulate) & 94.39\% & 93.29\% & 87.64\% & 85.00\% & \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{1500 m} & matches & 137,472,068 & 11,488,371 & 31,148,767 & 7,449,592 & \\ \cline{2-6}  & accuracy & 96.31\% & 85.88\% & 74.59\% & 57.13\% & \\ \cline{2-6}  & matches (accumulate) & 137,472,068 & 148,960,439 & 180,109,206 & 187,558,798 & \\ \cline{2-6}  & accuracy (accumulate) & 96.31\% & 95.41\% & 91.02\% & 88.92\% & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 5: Estimated results of destination by trip type characteristics. Non-continuous, recurrent travel can be viewed as a case where despite traveling repeatedly between certain origin and destination, the user does not travel every day, or utilizes a means other than public transportation because of a special circumstance, resulting in a disconnection between the trips.