## 3 Results and Discussion
### Implications of Electrical Generation on Fuels Cost  
The long-term annual electrical generation forecasting can be used to estimate the fuel cost of the future till 2030. Since Kuwait is dependent on oil export as the primary source for the country's revenue, the electricity generation directly relates to the country's economy, especially with the depletion of oil due to burning fossil fuel as a fuel in electricity generation. Kuwait's power plants use four different types of fossil fuel: natural gas, gas oil, crude oil, and heavy fuel oil (HFO). The rate of increase in electricity consumption has significant effects on the stability of the country's economy. Therefore, the long-term forecasting of electrical generation is essential for policymakers to keep  
Figure 7: Monthly total generation of electricity for Kuwait between 2021 and 2022. Kuwait's prosperous future. The sharp increase in electrical generation can deplete the oil resources capacity and is critical to Kuwait's economic future. The total cost of fuel consumed in the electrical generation between 2012 and 2019 is tabulated in Table 6 to illustrate the fuel cost change. It is clear from Table 6 that the total cost of fuel is fluctuating and associated with world fuel prices. Assessment of the power and desalination plants' fuel future requirements is vital to secure power generation and water supply stability. However, this may require thorough investigations to address all the parameters and be examined in the future. Instead, the analysis of possible simplified estimation of the total cost of fuel associated with the long-term electrical generation forecasting is introduced to address the uncertainties of fuel prices. The fuel cost represents the first source of expenses based on the life cycle assessment for the whole plant lifespan, which exceeds the capital investment cost. Fossil fuel constitutes about 99.6% of the total energy supply sources to the Kuwait power sector [21; 22; 23; 24], and the high percentage level of dependency is typical in most oil countries. There are two natural gas sources in Kuwait, local and imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, each type of fossil fuel has its own chemical and physical characteristics, and the price fluctuates according to several factors such as source, quality of the fuel, and demand-supply bases. The percentage of fuel consumptions map are varied year per year in power generation sectors and mainly governed by the strategies of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), which is oriented economically. The fixed baseline of fuel price was selected throughout this work, as illustrated in Table 7, based on the average values extracted from the past five years data to evaluate the fuel budget for the next ten years using the five models' extracted outcomes. Single and triple seasonality Holt-Winters models are the two models that cover the upper and lower band of the estimated cost of the forecasted annual electricity generation for Kuwait from 2020-2030 as it can be observed in Figure 8. Estimating the fuel budget is not limited only to the economic criteria but also to technical factors, such as type of unit, heat rate, degradation, and fuel quality. For the sake of simplicity, the average degradation value for the unit heat rate was assumed 1% as per registered and proposed by the manufacturers at standard conditions. Figure 8 shows the