## 5 Discussion and Conclusions  
In this paper, we suggest the use of scenario analysis in a rigorous manner to systematically investigate the future impact of blockchain. Previous research in this area has been concerned with identifying adoption barriers and antecedents as well as describing specific applications. Broadening the general research approach by including scenario analysis enables a plethora of interesting and relevant research questions to be addressed and may help fill pending research gaps. We start off with the suggestion not to treat blockchain as a black box but rather to differentiate between three different perspectives--technology, application, and impact--and to also consider relevant contingency factors that might affect future developments. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c} \hline \hline  & **Approach** & **Generic Research Question(s)** & **Exemplary Methods and Tools** & **Exemplary Literature** \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{(1) Descriptive} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{What properties (characteristics) does a specific blockchain application have2  } & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Blockchain Properties and} \\  & \multicolumn{2}{c}{What properties (characteristics) do blockchain-based tokens have?} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Characteristics Frameworks} & [16; 53] \\  & \multicolumn{2}{c}{} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{tokens have?} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Token Classifications} & \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{(2) Explorative} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Which context-specific factors exist?} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Expert Interviews} & [54; 55] \\  & \multicolumn{2}{c}{How likely is the occurrence of specific events?} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Content Analysis} & \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{(3) Impact Assessment} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{How can context-specific factors shape current trends?} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Grounded Theory} & \\  & \multicolumn{2}{c}{} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Regression Techniques} & \\ \cline{1-1}  & \multicolumn{2}{c}{} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Structural Equation Modeling} & \\ \cline{1-1}  & \multicolumn{2}{c}{} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Mathematical Modeling} & \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{(4) Delphi Studies} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Similar to (2) and (3)} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Similar to (2) and (3)} & [51; 52] \\ \cline{1-1}  & \multicolumn{2}{c}{} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{How can solutions be designed that take different scenarios into account?} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Design Science} & \\ \cline{1-1}  & \multicolumn{2}{c}{} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Action Research} & [19; 48; 56] \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 2: Scenario-based approaches for blockchain research. Figure 3: A framework for scenario-based blockchain research. The technology itself needs to be unraveled into its respective components to allow for an in-depth investigation of its specific properties and characteristics. Then, we introduce scenario analysis as an overarching framework that is able to accommodate numerous qualitative and quantitative research methods. Furthermore, we present a couple of research approaches (descriptive, explorative, impact assessment, Delphi studies, solutions design) which can (but do not have to) be combined to tackle the most pending questions of blockchain research in a comprehensive and step-wise manner. The steps do not necessarily have to be carried out in this specific order. Depending on the respective research goal and the overall design, it is possible and often advisable to pursue only one research approach to be able to tackle a specific research question in sufficient detail. The major advantages of this approach can be summarized as follows:  
* All important questions pertaining to the future impact of blockchain can be answered in a comprehensive manner without getting stuck in deterministic and confirmatory research designs. This yields plenty of innovative ideas for rigorous research especially for junior faculty and PhD researchers, who will also benefit from getting acquainted with a novel research paradigm. * Scenario analysis does not preclude an incremental theory-based approach.