# Assessing the Probability of Winning a Point in Men's Padel: A Comprehensive Analysis
## 4 Discussion  
The aim of the research was to assess the probability of winning a point by considering a number of variables that affect performance as well as by providing a comprehensive \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l l l l l l l l} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Pattern**} & \multicolumn{2}{l}{**n = 980**} & \multicolumn{2}{l}{**Pattern**} & \multicolumn{2}{l}{**n = 980**} & \\ \cline{2-7}  & **Fr** & **\%** & & & **Fr** & **\%** & \\ \hline FS-LN-ST2-SW & 58 (120) & (12.2) & 48.3 & FS-LN-ST2-RW & 62 (120) & (12.2) & 51.7 \\ FS-LN-ST2-SEC-SW & 8 & 13.8 & FS-LN-ST2-SEC-RW & 7 & 11.3 & & \\ FS-LN-ST2-SSC-SW & 4 & 6.9 & 26 (58) & FS-LN-ST2-SSC-RW & 6 & 9.7 & 21 (62) \\ FS-LN-ST2-SNT-SW & 14 & 24.1 & 44.8 & FS-LN-ST2-SNT-RW & 8 & 12.9 & 33.9 \\ FS-LN-ST2-PST-SW & 8 & 13.8 & FS-LN-ST2-PST-RW & 11 & 17.7 & & \\ FS-LN-ST2-MST-SW & 8 & 13.8 & 32 (58) & FS-LN-ST2-MST-RW & 8 & 12.9 & 41 (62) \\ FS-LN-ST2-CST-SW & 16 & 27.6 & 55.2 & FS-LN-ST2-CST-RW & 22 & 35.5 & 66.1 \\ \hline FS-LN-ST3-SW & 42 (93) & (9.5) & 45.2 & FS-LN-ST3-RW & 51 (93) & (9.5) & 54.8 \\ FS-LN-ST3-SEC-SW & - & - & FS-LN-ST3-SEC-RW & 3 & 5.9 & & 15 (51) \\ FS-LN-ST3-SSC-SW & 1 & 2.4 & 3 (42) & FS-LN-ST3-SSC-RW & 3 & 5.9 & & 15 (51) \\ FS-LN-ST3-SST-SW & 2 & 4.8 & 7.2 & FS-LN-ST3-SNT-RW & 9 & 17.6 & & 29.4 \\ FS-LN-ST3-PST-SW & 15 & 35.7 & 39 (42) & FS-LN-ST3-PST-RW & 12 & 23.5 & & 23.5 \\ FS-LN-ST3-MST-SW & 6 & 14.3 & 92.8 & FS-LN-ST3-MST-RW & 10 & 19.6 & 36 (51) \\ FS-LN-ST3-CST-SW & 18 & 42.9 & 92.8 & FS-LN-ST3-CST-RW & 14 & 27.5 & 70.6 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular} Note: Acronyms are given in Table 1.  
\end{table} 
Table 4: _Cont._analysis of matches. The data showed that the probability of winning a point by serving was higher in short rallies and decreased in medium and long rallies. A position close to the net increases the probability of winning the point. The research revealed that the most common type of rally is the short rally and that the average duration of points is 15 s. In addition, the most common trajectory of the final shots is the cross-court shot, executed over the middle of the court. Smashes and volleys predominate as final shots. In the match analysis in this research, it was observed that the first serve is used on 90% of occasions and that double faults are infrequent, a result that coincided with previous research [1]. The probability of winning the point by serving the first serve was somewhat higher than by returning (60%), with rates similar to those observed in this sport previously [35]. Although it is uncommon to obtain direct points (aces) or indirect points with the serve [1], probably due to the regulatory restrictions of padel compared to racket sports such as tennis [18; 36], this technical action allows one to secure an offensive position near the net [9]. This, according to experts [18; 25], provides a tactical advantage to win the point. Previous research supports that a position close to the net favors winners or increases the likelihood of errors being made by the opposing team [15; 26; 37], a finding that we also confirmed in our study. The results of this research indicate that proximity to the net, whether serving or returning, increases the chances of winning the point. Short rallies (0-6 shots) were the most common type of rally detected. However, analysis of the duration of the points revealed an average of 15 s, in line with recent studies [27] but marking a change from older research that reported a duration of 7-12 s [9; 10; 38]. It is possible that the technical-tactical and physical improvement of padel pairs is making it difficult to finish points quickly, a relevant aspect to consider in the planning of training sessions, especially from a conditional approach. The type of rally plays a crucial factor in the chances of winning the point. In short rallies, the service pair won 73% of the points; however, this value dropped to 57% in medium rallies and dropped even further to 47% in long rallies.