# Regional Climate Change in Southeast Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula, Central America and the Caribbean
## 4 Discussion
### Local Impacts on the Population, Agriculture, and Aquatic Ecosystems  
The SM-YP, CA and Caribbean regions are vulnerable to extreme hydroclimatological phenomena, such as floods and droughts [3; 21; 34]. According to [3] they warn that the adverse effects of floods could be exacerbated in the states of Tabasco, Chiapas, and Veracruz, while the states of Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Yucatan in southern Mexico will have the potential effects of climate change. On the other hand, in Central America, [35] report tropical cyclones to be one of the most important causes of disasters in this region, with direct impacts on different agricultural sectors and impacts on the population. Precipitation patterns in this region are also expected to intensify hydrological extremes (floods and droughts) in the near future [20; 25]. In the case of the Caribbean region, island states have been recognized as facing the constant threat of climate change and its manifestations in more frequent floods and droughts, more intense hurricanes and tropical storms, and sea-level rise, in particular [34].  
Crops are sensitive to the impacts of climate change, including changes in temperature and precipitation [86]. Among the changes, increasing temperature has the most likely negative impact on crop yield [86; 87]. Yields will be better in colder environments and worse in warmer environments [88]. According to [36], in Guatema, Honduras, and Nicaragua, more than two-thirds of the population depend on seasonal agriculture; increased rainfall or irrigation will reduce the yield gap between rainfed agriculture and irrigated agriculture, but can also have a negative impact if extreme rainfall causes flooding [19].  
Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (_Coffea arabica_) within the current regions of production. This is the case in countries in SM-YP, CA and the Caribbean [87]. Likewise, the increase in temperature and precipitation patterns will have the effect of increasing the pressure of pests and diseases, for example, coffee rust (_Hemileia vastatrix_) in Mexico [88].  
In [89], the authors state that the climatic preferences of the _Attacosteus tropic_ fish will potentially increase due to climate change in areas of the CA mountain range. This species would benefit from the climate change-related increase in temperature. For the _Peteria Splendida_ fish, in contrast to what will happen with the _A. tropic_, there will be a loss of habitat due to climate change. This loss of distribution areas is related to the decrease in precipitation that the Usumacinta River will suffer in the future. The fish populations must acclimatize or migrate to avoid extinction. It is worth mentioning that changes in distribution patterns could affect the income of families who are reliant on fishing and lead to changes in the food chain, such as an increase in prey populations. Climate change will also affect freshwater fish in southeast Mexico and northern CA in different ways.  
In general, the impacts of climate change on different sectors and social spheres will have repercussions on the economic structure and well-being of the SM-YP, CA, and Caribbean regions. To adapt and respond to a different climate, we first need to know how the climate is changing at the global, regional, and local levels [42].