###### Abstract  
Blockchain is predicted to disrupt industries, economies, and societies. The properties of distributed ledgers allow the creation of immutable data structures that facilitate shared access in real time and enable a plethora of innovative applications. However, blockchain is not a uniform technology but rather a bundle of evolving components whose implications are notoriously hard to predict. At present, it is not clear how current trends will evolve, with technical evolution, legislation, and public policy being three contingency factors that make ongoing disruptive transformations particularly hard to predict. In light of blockchain's potential disruptive impact, it is surprising that scenario analysis has hitherto been largely ignored in academic research. Therefore, in this paper, we introduce the technique, clarify several misconceptions, and provide examples illustrating how this method can help to overcome the limitations of existing technology impact research. We conclude that if applied correctly, scenario analysis represents the ideal tool to rigorously explore uncertain future developments and to create a comprehensive foundation for future research. blockchain; distributed ledger technology; scenario analysis; scenario planning; prediction; research design; contingency theory; blockchain transformation model +
Footnote †: journal: _Future Internet_  
applications it can help to create, and what kind of contingency factors (on individual, organizational, and national levels) may foster or hamper its further development. In this regard, blockchain has also been labeled as a double-edged sword [8] that simultaneously brings forth positive and negative consequences; currently, little is known about the (external) factors that might ultimately determine which outcomes prevail. In 2020, [PERSON] et al. [9] laid out a research agenda that encouraged academics to investigate use cases, identify adoption barriers, and develop solutions to lower these barriers. In a nutshell, they point out that \"for academia, the challenge is to adopt a holistic perspective in an attempt to coordinate inter-disciplinary educational and research efforts\" (p. 4). Recent comprehensive literature reviews illustrate that blockchain research has emerged as an important topic in numerous academic communities including information systems, finance, supply chain management, production research, and marketing. However, these studies also reveal that the current methodological repository is predominately focused on detailing specific case studies as well as applying qualitative and quantitative methods that focus on ongoing developments and test models based on averaged responses [10; 11; 12]. In contrast, research is missing that is well-suited to identify possible development trajectories and contingency factors that will determine and steer future developments. In an environment that is highly erratic and hard to predict, a more nuanced methodological approach might be advantageous. Therefore, we pose the following three research questions:  
How can blockchain research be designed, such that it...  
1. is able to detect the most likely future developments (predictive research)
2. identifies extreme developments (both positive and negative) and assesses the likelihood of their occurrence? (exploratory and predictive research)
3. gives useful and practicable recommendations to industry and public institutions (including advisory boards) on how to create solutions that yield positive outcomes? (design science research/action research)  
The remainder of this paper is structured as follows. In Section 2, we elaborate on the components and drivers of blockchain transformation and define the relevant terminology needed for the remainder of this paper. In Section 3, we briefly discuss several academic approaches to predicting the future and juxtapose scenario analysis with popular (mainly quantitative) approaches. Section 4 explores in more detail how scenario analysis can serve as the basis for various study designs.