## 5 Discussion  
The analyses conducted indicate the importance of incorporating uncertainty into the strategic planning process for open pit mines. The traditional deterministic approach, while simple and widely used in the mining industry, fails to adequately account for the financial risks associated with a project. The assumption that all key parameters are fixed does not reflect realistic fluctuations in market conditions, operating costs, and geological characteristics. The results of the analysis confirm that the deterministic approach presents positive financial indicators, with an NPV of 130.8 million dollars, an internal rate of  
Figure 11: Cumulative distribution function of project NPV for various confidence intervals: (a) 90%; (b) 95%; (c) 97%. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c} \hline
**Confidence Interval** & **VaR (NPV Millions of USD)** & **CvaR (NPV Millions of USD)** \\ \hline
90\% & 11.9 & \(-\)3.1 \\
95\% & \(-\)8.4 & \(-\)14.1 \\
97\% & 0 & \(-\)13.2 \\ \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 5: VaR and CvaR for different confidence intervals. return of 17%, and a payback period of 3.84 years. However, this assessment overlooks the potential for adverse outcomes that can significantly impact the project's profitability. The stochastic approach allows for a more detailed analysis of various possible scenarios and a more realistic presentation of economic profitability. By considering the uncertainty of the key input parameters through Monte Carlo simulations, the results indicate that the average NPV is USD 155.5 million, which is higher than the deterministic result, though it comes with a standard deviation of USD 76.5 million, reflecting a high degree of variability in financial outcomes. The maximum NPV reaches USD 327.9 million, while the most unfavorable scenarios show losses of USD \(-\)17 million, confirming a certain probability that the project may be unprofitable. Additionally, the internal rate of return fluctuates between 8.74% and 25.39%, while the investment return period spans from 2.82 to 5.66 years, indicating significant oscillations in the dynamics of capital return. Risk assessment using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) methods is particularly important in the analysis. The assessed confidence thresholds allow for a precise evaluation of the likelihood of unfavorable outcomes. It was found that at 90% confidence, there is a 10% chance that the NPV will drop below USD 11.9 million, with an average loss of USD \(-\)3.1 million in those adverse scenarios. At 95% confidence, there is a 5% chance that the NPV will be less than USD \(-\)8.4 million, and the average loss in these instances is USD \(-\)14.1 million. The 97% confidence threshold suggests a 3% probability that the project will be unprofitable (NPV = 0), with an average loss of USD \(-\)13.2 million in those situations. A key aspect of the financial risk evaluation is the definition of an acceptable risk threshold, which in this study is set as P(NPV < 0) < 10%. This means that the probability of obtaining a negative NPV should remain below 10% to justify investment in the project. The results confirm that the project remains within this acceptable risk range, as the worst-case scenario at 97% confidence suggests a 3% probability of financial failure. These findings reinforce the importance of applying structured risk metrics such as VaR and CVaR to determine whether financial risks fall within a manageable threshold before committing to large-scale investments. Although ISO 31000 is a general risk management framework, its principles of systematic risk identification, analysis, and treatment provide a robust structure that can be adapted to mining projects. This study demonstrates how ISO 31000 can be effectively applied to strategic mine planning by aligning its core risk assessment steps with industry-specific methodologies such as stochastic mine optimization and financial risk quantification.