# The Perpetual Vector Mosquito Threat and Its Eco-Friendly Nemeses
## 2 The Expanding Mosquito Range, Climate Change, and Computational Modeling
The analyses indicated that in regions where both species were present, _Aedes aegypti_ was the major vector for transmission of the three viruses, with the \"highest risk\" occurring in Central America,Venezuela, Colombia, and central-east Brazil, and a \"non-negligible risk\" of transmission in Florida, Texas, and Arizona in the United States. Significantly, the study suggested that because of its expanding niche, _Aedes albopictus_ could contribute to the emergence of chikungunya in temperate regions of the Americas and Mediterranean regions in Europe, primarily Italy, southern France, and Spain. The range expansion prediction for _Aedes albopictus_ in Europe should not be surprising. _Aedes albopictus_ was initially confined to Southeast Asia, but as a result of travel and trade due to globalization in recent decades, it is now present in all populated continents. The species apparently was first noted in Albania in 1979 and Italy in 1990, and has since spread to at least 20 countries on the continent. The vector was responsible for dengue and chikungunya outbreaks in Italy, France, and Croatia [52,53]. The extent to which climate change exacerbates this problem remains to be resolved. Nonetheless, in a recent theoretical study by [PERSON] et al. [54], using criteria such as current and future climate change projections, population density, and the expectation that the species will invade northern and eastern Europe, there seems to be a consensus that \(-\)83% of urban areas could become suitable habitats for _Aedes albopictus_, compared to \(-\)49% in the current setting. In the future, affected regions could include areas northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy, and the coastline spanning the western Balkans and Greece. Whereas most cities in Europe were either \"suitable with low or high uncertainty\", the study predicted that only a few cities were \"unsuitable with low uncertainty\", including Arhus, Copenhagen, Gdansk, Riga, Stavanger, Tartu, and Vilnius, for the invasion and establishment of _Aedes albopictus_. Computational analyses have also been used to estimate the geographic distribution of _Aedes aegypti_ in Ecuador by 2050, considering factors related to the emission of greenhouse gasses and climate change models [31]. The results suggested that under present climatic conditions, the aquatic larval stage of the vector would not be expected to proliferate at high elevations, including the Andes mountain range and the eastern portion of the Amazon basin. In contrast, when future climate change models were applied to the analyses, the data suggested that elevated mountainous terrain will be permissive for larvae. In this scenario, over 12,000 people currently living in transitional areas will be at risk of pathogens vectored by _Aedes aegypti_. In summary, both practical and in silico modeling support a strong consensus that increasing temperatures due to climate change will select for vector mosquito strains and perhaps pathogens with thermo-adaptive advantages. As in the past centuries, mosquito-vectored diseases will continue to threaten human and animal health and ecosystems in the wild. As such, these theoretical studies are indispensable and will continue to be of critical value not only in predicting vector-pathogen-human/animal interactions, but also in informing the public and human and animal health agencies in planning and executing coordinated measures to abate the spread of mosquitoes and the pathogens they disseminate. Sadly, considering current trends in climate change and globalization, it is likely that economically and medically marginal communities will continue to be those most impacted by mosquito-borne diseases well into the foreseeable future.