## 4 Ongoing Trends
### Energy Demand  
Malaysia, being a growing developing country, is expected to have continuous rise in energy demand. In last two decades, Malaysia's gross domestic production (GDP, 1987 fixed price) [1] grew steadily at an average of 5.8% from 1990 to 2012, in which growth was 6.2% from 1990 to 2005 and 4.9% from 2005 to 2012. The GDP _per capita_[1] increased from RM 5820 to RM 12,556 (1987 fixed price) at an average of 3.6% in 1990-2012. Malaysia's energy consumption grew at an average of 6.62% from 1980 to 2012, in which 5.74% from 1980 to 1990, 9.59% from 1990 to 2005 and 1.74% from 2005 to 2012. The historical trend of Malaysia energy consumption is provided in Figure 17 (by sector) and Figure 18 (by fuel type).  
Figure 16: The structure of energy consumption in the transportation sector in Malaysia in 2011.  
The proportion of secondary industry in GDP formation [1] firstly increased from 40.3% in 1990 and reached a high point of 50.4% in 2005, and decreased to 44.8% in 2012, while the proportion of primary industry decreased from 36.9% to 24.9% and the tertiary industry increased from 22.8% to 30.3%. According to the data mentioned above, the development of energy consumption of Malaysia which shown in Figure 17 can be divided in three periods (Table 7):  
(1) _1980-1990_: Initial stage of industrialization. Primary industry especially agriculture was replaced by secondary industry gradually, and energy consumption growth maintained at a low rate in this stage.  
(2) _1990-2005_: Middle stage of industrialization. Malaysia was simultaneously experiencing rapid industrialization, urbanization and motorization in this stage. Huge amount of energy were consumed to support the rapid development of industrial sector and the new added demand of services primarily  
Figure 17: Energy consumption of Malaysia expressed by sectors.  
Figure 18: Energy consumption of Malaysia expressed by fuel type.  
pertaining to energy-intensive products, such as houses, cars, machines and infrastructures. Both energy consumption in the manufacturing, transportation and domestic sectors experienced a high speed growth in this stage.
* (3) _2005-2012_: Later in the middle stage of industrialization, the proportion of secondary industry decreased whereas the proportion of tertiary industry increased gradually. Comparing with the previous stages, energy consumption in all sectors showed an obvious deceleration, in which the energy consumption growth of the manufacturing sector was nearly zero.  
In 2010, Malaysia launched the New Economic Model, which aims for the country to reach high income status by 2020 while ensuring that growth is also sustainable and inclusive. There is a projection that the GDP growth of Malaysia will remain at 4.7%-5.2% by 2020 [29], in which the tertiary industry will become the dominant industry in near future. The continuously drawdown of the proportion and energy intensity of the manufacturing sector will slow down the energy consumption growth, but with the increasing GDP _per capita_ and the expanding tertiary industry, the energy consumption will still increase and the share of electricity and liquid fuel for vehicle may increase in the near future.