## 4 Results
### Performance of the Models
#### 4.1.2 Error Rates for Age Categories  
Table 2 shows the error rates for new cancer cases and cancer incidence rates in age group categories. The error rates have been interpreted to indicate the best models, indicated by bold and italic highlights. The error rates show that the hybrid model performs the best in forecasting new cancer cases and cancer incidence rates for age group categories. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c} \hline
**Geography** & **Category** & **Model** & **MSE** & **MAE** & **RMSE** & **MAPE** & \(\mathbf{R^{2}}\) \\ \hline \multirow{8}{*}{Prince Edward Island} & \multirow{4}{*}{New Cancer Cases} & ARIMA & 0.0110 & 0.0776 & 0.1047 & 0.0879 & 0.3742 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0187 & 0.0693 & 0.1368 & 0.0784 & 0.1700 \\  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0036_ & _0.0451_ & _0.0604_ & _0.0632_ & _0.8212_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.0227 & 0.1229 & 0.1507 & 0.1065 & 0.2397 \\ \cline{2-8}  & \multirow{4}{*}{Cancer Incidence Rate} & ARIMA & 0.0059 & 0.0588 & 0.0767 & 0.0613 & 0.1394 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0039 & 0.0623 & 0.0626 & 0.0654 & 0.1945 \\  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0035_ & _0.0469_ & _0.0590_ & _0.0532_ & _0.2424_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.0181 & 0.1059 & 0.1347 & 0.1042 & \(-\)2.7544 \\ \hline \multirow{8}{*}{Quebec} & \multirow{4}{*}{New Cancer Cases} & ARIMA & 0.0084 & 0.0511 & 0.0919 & 0.0558 & 0.1893 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0020 & 0.0398 & 0.0444 & 0.0440 & 0.5558 \\  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0006_ & _0.0242_ & _0.0250_ & _0.0260_ & _0.5084_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.0052 & 0.0488 & 0.0719 & 0.0522 & \(-\)0.6552 \\ \cline{2-8}  & \multirow{4}{*}{Cancer Incidence Rate} & ARIMA & 0.0007 & 0.0250 & 0.0267 & 0.0271 & 0.2899 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0012 & 0.0353 & 0.0408 & 0.0996 & 0.6675 \\  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0005_ & _0.0161_ & _0.0231_ & _0.0207_ & _0.8603_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.0112 & 0.0918 & 0.1061 & 0.1077 & \(-\)3.3572 \\ \hline \multirow{8}{*}{Saskatchewan} & \multirow{4}{*}{New Cancer Cases} & ARIMA & 0.0115 & 0.0741 & 0.1075 & 0.0958 & 0.4375 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0111 & 0.0865 & 0.1052 & 0.1005 & 0.1892 \\  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0048_ & _0.0486_ & _0.0691_ & _0.0607_ & _0.3505_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.0086 & 0.0688 & 0.0929 & 0.0845 & 0.2633 \\ \cline{2-8}  & \multirow{4}{*}{Cancer Incidence Rate} & ARIMA & 0.0179 & 0.1095 & 0.1340 & 0.1652 & 0.1713 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0208 & 0.1249 & 0.1442 & 0.1869 & 0.3781 \\  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0122_ & _0.0716_ & _0.1103_ & _0.0965_ & _0.2076_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.0143 & 0.0848 & 0.1194 & 0.1119 & \(-\)0.5023 \\ \hline \multirow{8}{*}{Yukon} & \multirow{4}{*}{New Cancer Cases} & ARIMA & 0.0106 & 0.0862 & 0.1030 & 0.1074 & 0.5719 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0160 & 0.1135 & 0.1145 & 0.0911 & 0.8823 \\ \cline{1-1}  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0026_ & _0.0344_ & _0.0513_ & _0.0449_ & _0.8793_ \\ \cline{1-1}  & & Prophet & 0.0137 & 0.1021 & 0.1169 & 0.1293 & 0.3063 \\ \cline{1-1} \cline{2-8}  & \multirow{4}{*}{Cancer Incidence Rate} & ARIMA & 0.0205 & 0.1055 & 0.1432 & 0.1283 & 0.3311 \\ \cline{1-1}  & & LSTM & 0.0044 & 0.0361 & 0.0664 & 0.0483 & 0.8559 \\ \cline{1-1}  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0016_ & _0.0311_ & _0.0395_ & _0.0451_ & _0.9427_ \\ \cline{1-1}  & & Prophet & 0.0263 & 0.1244 & 0.1621 & 0.1606 & \(-\)1.1203 \\ \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 2: Error rates of age group categories for new cancer cases and cancer incidence rate. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline
**Age Group** & **Category** & **Model** & **MSE** & **MAE** & **RMSE** & **MAPE** & \(\mathbf{R^{2}}\) \\ \hline \multirow{8}{*}{0 to 04 years} & ARIMA & 0.0186 & 0.1079 & 0.1362 & 0.1765 & 0.1522 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0198 & 0.1249 & 0.1407 & 0.2338 & 0.4500 \\  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0178_ & _0.1267_ & _0.1333_ & _0.2349_ & _0.1454_ \\  & & Prophet & 0.1187 & 0.2956 & 0.3445 & 0.6277 & \(-\)6.2204 \\ \cline{1-1} \cline{2-8}  & \multirow{4}{*}{Cancer Incidence Rate} & ARIMA & 0.0019 & 0.0343 & 0.0436 & 0.0956 & 0.2485 \\  & & LSTM & 0.0080 & 0.0689 & 0.0896 & 0.1696 & 0.1359 \\ \cline{1-1}  & & _Hybrid_ & _0.0003_ & _0.0124_ & _0.0169_ & _0.0270_ & _0.1520_ \\ \cline{1-1}  & & Prophet & 0.0961 & 0.2822 & 0.3100 & 0.2458 & \(-\)1.9227 \\ \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}