# Estimating Destination of Bus Trips Considering Trip Type Characteristics
## 4 Methodology
### Method
To determine the spatial continuity, we classify a trip as continuous travel, only when there is a stop on the utilized route of the target trip within a certain distance from the boarding stop of the next trip. According to the result of sensitivity analysis on the allowed walking distance in a previous study, the change in the success rate and accuracy of the estimation is not significant when it is approximately 500 m [10]. In a few cases, the allowed walking distance is set to 500 m, considering that the common radius of a subway station area is 500 m, or it is set to 500-1000 m based on the distance distribution between the bus stops in the analyzed area [9; 17; 25; 30]. In this study, we set the allowed walking distance to 500 m, considering the aforementioned studies. Stage 2: To estimate the alighting stop for a \"recurrent travel\" among the \"non-continuous travel,\" analysis is performed first for the past travel history of each person (see Figure 3). Recurrent travel is mainly commuting trips of moving from the residence to the workplace, and back. Potential workplaces and residences are selected by solely utilizing the boarding information for each card ID to build the recurrent pattern data. To determine the recurrence of the trips, we analyzed one-month boarding data and counted the boarding frequency for each boarding stop in each time range for each card ID. To  
Figure 2: Method of estimating the alighting stop for continuous travel. determine the residence and workplace from the data on recurrent travel, we established the \"morning commute hours\" and \"afternoon commute hours.\" The time range was set broadly to reflect various commute patterns: 04:00-12:00 for the morning commute hours and from 15:00 to 02:00 on the next day for the afternoon commute hours. Moreover, we selected the stop where the passenger boarded three times or more weekly on average in each time range as the stop at a residence or workplace candidate. The boarding stops between 04:00 and 12:00 are classified as residence candidates, and the boarding stops between 15:00 and 02:00 on the next day are classified as workplace candidates [31]. A stop that satisfies the criteria of a certain boarding frequency (three or more weekly) among the boarding stops in the morning commute hours is selected as a \"potential residence,\"; based on the same method, the boarding stop in the afternoon commute hours is selected as a \"potential workplace.\" As for the criteria for determining recurrent travels, we selected three times or more per week by referencing a case of mobile data-based staying purpose classification ([PERSON] and [PERSON], 2018), which is similar in the aspect of determining travel purposes and public transportation data. Here, we also included the potential stop candidates and stops existing within 500 m, among the stops utilized less than three times per week. This also includes the cases of commuting utilizing other routes nearby. This task is to examine the stops that have recurrent patterns based on the boarding stop information, and it is not to determine the residence and workplace accurately. In the alighting stop estimation based on the travel patterns of each person, the utilization time of the alighting stop information-missing trip is checked; the distance (\(d\)) is calculated between the stops located on the utilized route of the alighting information-missing trip and the stop at the \"potential residence or workplace candidates\"; a stop that minimizes the distance while locating with the allowed walking distance (\(d_{l}\)) is estimated to be the alighting stop. Here, regarding trips during the morning commute hours, stops are searched around the stop at the potential workplace, and regarding the afternoon commute hours, stops are searched around the stop at the potential residence. Stage 3: Regarding \"non-recurrent travel\" among \"non-continuous travels,\" the alighting stop is estimated by searching the past travel history and determining the trip that is similar to the alighting information-missing trip.