## 3 Results
### Analysis of the Average Emission Factor
#### 3.1.3 Load and Renewables Feed-in  
The share of RES in net power production in 2020 varies between 8.5% und 70.7% (as shown in Figure 6). The \(\mathrm{AEF_{fc}}\) and the share of RES are negatively correlated (\(r_{2020}=-0.96;r_{2030}=-0.94;r_{2040}=-0.95\)). While the share of RES and the distribution of \(\mathrm{AEF_{fc}}\) values occur in almost all load ranges, it can be seen that in 2020, higher \(\mathrm{AEF_{fc}}\) of more than 400 \(\mathrm{g_{CO2 eq}/kWh_{el}}\) will occur more frequently, even at higher loads. This effect is reversed in 2030 and 2040--with increasing demand, the \(\mathrm{AEF_{fc}}\) decreases. The integration and expansion of RES will make it easier to cover peak load periods, although in 2030 the absolute peak load (\(>\)80 \(\mathrm{GW_{el}}\)) will not yet show values below 200 \(\mathrm{g_{CO2 eq}/kWh_{el}}\). In addition, in 2030, fossil-fueled power plants still in existence will be running at base and medium load, which will greatly increase the \(\mathrm{AEF_{fc}}\) when demand is low. For the year 2040, this effect can also be explained by the simultaneity of little wind and photovoltaic feed-in and the low demand between Christmas and New Year.  
Figure 7 shows the connection between the RES feed-in and the \(\mathrm{AEF_{fc}}\). The shift of the data cloud from 2020 towards lower values (to the left) in 2040 shows the influence of the coal phase-out. The scattering of data points without significant trading or storage impacts at the same share of renewables can be explained by the different composition of the residual load in terms of power plant efficiency and energy carriers. The largest export volumes in 2020 will appear when there are high shares of RES in the power supply (as shown in Figure 7b). Export power is assessed with the emission factor of net power production, which means that exports do not significantly affect the hourly specific \(\mathrm{AEF_{fc}}\), because the two emission factors have similar values. However, the absolute emission level of power production is still influenced by the export of mainly RES electricity.  
In 2040, \(\mathrm{AEF_{fc}}\) of less than 300 \(\mathrm{g_{CO2 eq}/kWh_{el}}\) will be apparent, despite low RES shares of less than 20%. Although gas-fired power plants meet the majority of demand here, the fairly low-emission imported electricity and the lower-emission electricity from storage facilities reduces the \(\mathrm{AEF_{fc}}\) in these times (Figure 7a). Here, the emission factor of imported  
Figure 7: (a) Connection of the \(\mathrm{AEF_{fc}}\) with the share of RES in net power production and the impact of discharging processes; and (b) power exchanges (both with color scale). Model results.  
electricity is significantly different from the emission factor of net power production. Due to higher demand in 2040 than in 2030, with the installed capacity of fossil power plants remaining unchanged, it is possible that, despite the ongoing expansion of renewables and a reduction in GHG emissions, lower shares of renewables in NPP may still occur in some cases (as shown in Figure 6). The BAU scenario tends to show the same effects with overall higher factors.