# Causal Factors in Elderly Pedestrian Traffic Injuries Based on Association Analysis
## 4 Discussion  
Logistic regression is a classification model widely used for binary classification problems, capable of revealing the specific effects of variables on the target outcome. In logistic regression analysis, metrics such as standard error, \(p\)-value, Exp(B), and log likelihood are commonly used to assess model fit, variable significance, and predictive capability, aiding in the evaluation of model stability and reliability. Standard error: measures the variability of the estimated regression coefficients, reflecting the precision of the regression model. \(p\)-value: Assesses the statistical significance of each factor. A smaller \(p\)-value (typically \(<\) 0.05) indicates stronger evidence against the null hypothesis. Exp(B): represents the odds ratio, quantifying the likelihood of a change in the dependent variable for every unit increase in the independent variable. Log likelihood: Indicates the measure of model fit. A higher log likelihood (or a less negative value) suggests a better model fit. Based on the aforementioned result, the input variables include elderly pedestrian height, driver's years of experience, driver's awareness of the elderly pedestrian, collision speed, time of accident, road type, and accident location/environment. Height, age, and collision speed are continuous variables, while the remaining variables are categorical and encoded as dummy variables. Height, elderly pedestrian age, driver's years of experience, collision speed, and time of day meet the significance criterion (_p_-value < 0.1), while the other factors are not significant, as shown in Table 3.  
The results indicate that height has a significant impact on the mortality rate of elderly pedestrians (_p_-value = 0.063), with Exp(B) = 0.98. For each unit increase in elderly pedestrian height, the mortality rate decreases by 2%. The likely explanation for this result is that a higher pedestrian collision point is above the vehicle's bumper and hood, preventing direct impact to the head and chest, thereby reducing fatal injuries. Additionally, taller pedestrians are more likely to be thrown in a trajectory that avoids secondary impacts from the vehicle's rigid parts. To further reduce the mortality rate among elderly pedestrians, the design of vehicle fronts should be optimized, pedestrian protection measures should be strengthened, traffic safety education for elderly pedestrians should be conducted, and intelligent transportation systems should be promoted to improve protection and accident response capabilities. Age significantly influences the mortality rate of elderly pedestrians (_p_-value = 0.004), with an Exp(B) value of 1.037, meaning that for each additional year, the mortality rate increases by 3.7%. This is due to the decline in reaction time, flexibility, and recovery ability with age, which makes elderly pedestrians more susceptible to fatal injuries in traffic accidents. Furthermore, elderly pedestrians are more likely to have chronic conditions, which increases their vulnerability and results in higher mortality rates following injury. To mitigate this risk, measures such as traffic safety education, improved road infrastructure, the promotion of advanced driver assistance systems, regular health monitoring, and enhanced medication management should be implemented to safeguard elderly pedestrians. The mortality rate of elderly pedestrians caused by drivers with 6-15 years of driving experience is significantly lower, with Exp(B) of 0.275. Similarly, drivers with over 15 years of experience also cause a significantly lower mortality rate, with Exp(B) of 0.271, representing a reduction of approximately 73% compared with drivers with fewer than 6 years of experience. This is primarily due to the fact that as driving experience increases, drivers accumulate more expertise, allowing them to better navigate complex road conditions and respond to unforeseen situations. Their risk perception and psychological maturity