## 4 Conclusions  
This study offers a different methodology to quantify the financial weather risk in agriculture. It is done by using a basic index insurance model to compute future payouts and a ratio of payments in exceedance. This can be applied to short time series precipitation data from weather stations near a crop's productive zones. This new methodology allows us to identify highly volatile weather crop production areas in the current- and mid-term by applying a data-driven approach such as SVD techniques and a financial ratio that accounts for a risk metric. This metric comprises the POERs or payouts in exceedance which could be interpreted as future disbursals due to tendency components.  
Studies highlight the need to promote insurance programs to acquire financial resilience, especially in low-income economies whose income relies on agricultural activities. This study suggests a specific methodology to assess financial risk involving future weather instances in crop seasons. This is because state-of-the-art index insurance reviews recommend deeper research to model and assist future index insurance scenarios, as well as an emphasis on index derivation during critical crop seasons. We found that in the mid-term, a hypothetical financial entity would have to disburse from 20 to 60% of payouts in addition to regular seasonal disbursals due to the tendency of weather components in dry coffee seasons.  
As is the case for many other countries where a significant part of their productive agricultural activities occurs in risky-weather regions, it is necessary to account for possible extraordinary disbursements or overpayments before losses occur. In the case studied here, these regions are the villages located in (i) Caldas: Samana, Cocorna; (ii) Antioquia: Briceno, San Carlos, and San Francisco; and (iii) Santander: El Guacamayo. Using the POERs measures recently proposed in the literature, it is possible to identify risk regions with an increasing trend of payments that could impact the quality of coffee and the sustainability of ongoing insurance programs.  
Public and private subsidies have been successfully implemented and have promoted the expansion of index insurance in the department of Cauca, Colombia. One example is the program Cafe Seguro. One of the key factors of this program's success is the use of public and private subsidies along with fostering a close working relationship with farmers.  
This analysis can be implemented and customized in other crops and regions to promote the wider use of index insurance programs. Therefore, programs should consider the implementation of insurance products by maintaining a close work relationship with farmers and by funding programs in order to ensure their adoption and the reduction in costs.  
These results could be improved with the inclusion of more weather indices, as well as larger time series to capture climate changes. Crop yield data could be used to enhance the limits and thresholds of the index model. Nevertheless, we believe that this study serves as a point of reference for further debate and the elucidation of Colombia's agricultural development efforts.  
**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, A.L.A.-P. and N.P.-C.; methodology, A.L.A.-P., M.C.D.-J. and N.P.-C.; software, A.L.A.-P. and M.C.D.-J.; validation, M.C.D.-J.; investigation, A.L.A.-P.; resources, A.L.A.-P. and M.C.D.-J; writing--original draft preparation, A.L.A.-P. and N.P.-C.; writing--review and editing, A.L.A.-P., M.C.D.-J. and N.P.-C.; visualization, A.L.A.-P. and M.C.D.-J.; supervision, M.C.D.-J. and N.P.-C. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.  
**Funding:** This research received no external funding.  
**Institutional Review Board Statement:** Not applicable.  
**Informed Consent Statement:** Not applicable.  
**Data Availability Statement:** The data presented in this study are available on