# Ensemble Machine Learning for Monkeypox Transmission Time Series Forecasting
## 1 Introduction
[54; 55] reported their findings in 1959. The monkeypox virus is a double-stranded DNA virus that belongs to the orthopoxvirus taxonomy, which also includes human variola (VAR), cowpox (CPV), and vaccinia (VAC) viruses. The monkeypox virus is a zoonotic infection, which means it can be transmitted from one animal to another. Monkeypox virus has been detected in rodents, Gambian poached rats, dormice, and non-human primates, but further research is needed to determine the true natural repository (s). The monkeypox virus is divided into two genomic lineages: Central African (Congo Basin) and West African. The Congo Basin clade is expected to become a hotspot and cause more serious infections [56; 57]. Whenever a person comes into indirect or direct contact with infected animals' or humans' secretions, injured substances, or polluted materials, the monkeypox virus can easily be transmitted. Transmission from animal to human can happen via bites, scratches, or cooking of animal parts. The monkeypox virus is assumed to be transmitted among people mostly through respiratory secretions during prolonged face-to-face interaction, although it can also be spread sexually through sex with an infectious individual's bodily fluids [58; 59]. The virus can enter the body through cuts or wounds (even if they are not apparent), the respiratory tract, or the mucous membranes of the eyes, nose, and mouth. Whereas the MPX virus was first detected in monkeys, animals including squirrels and striped grass mice are thought to represent the virus's initial reservoir [60; 61]. The virus'spropagation to infected humans was first documented in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 1970 [56; 61; 62]. It produces a pathogenic infection in humans [63] with clinical manifestations comparable to smallpox. Repeated epidemics in human populations have been recorded primarily in the Congo Basin since the first transmission [61]. The virus, meanwhile, expanded beyond Africa, where an increase in incidence is thought to be linked to the termination of the smallpox immunization campaign [64; 65]. Since natural and foreseeably modified variants [66] of MPX are apparently being studied in biowarfare programs [67; 68], countries like the United States (US) have already been amassing smallpox vaccines as a safety measure against biological terrorism and biowar [69; 70] and as an antiretroviral therapy that is said to be resistant to various varieties of previously discovered smallpox [71]. In view of the current COVID-19 pandemic and its repercussions, the current epidemic of MPX has now spread to 19 countries across five continents (by May 2022) [72] and has therefore become a new center of interest. An epidemic is characterized by a rapid spike in the transmission of a disease when the number of cases surpasses the estimated number for the place or period [72]. As a result, it is critical to respond rapidly to new diseases so that therapeutic and non-therapeutic countermeasures can be implemented promptly. Cases have been reported in individuals in western and central African countries ever since the revelation of the monkeypox virus in 1958: Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Cote d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Liberia, Nigeria, the Republic of the Congo, and Sierra Leone, with many people infected in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The majority of monkeypox cases in people beyond Africa have been connected to overseas travel or contact with exotic animals, with cases reported in the United States, Israel, Singapore, and the United Kingdom [73]. Most new occurrences of monkeypox in Sweden, Italy, Belgium, the United States, and Canada have not been related to travel to endemic areas in West and Central Africa, implying that local transmission occurs within societies. Monkeypox incidents have been reported in the UK, Spain, and Portugal among males who have sex with men, although not exclusively [73]. As of 31 May, 321 cases had been confirmed from 17 EU/EEA member countries, although there had been no fatalities.