## 3 Results
### Future Projections of Mean Monthly Streamflow  
The mean monthly streamflow for the historical period and future period under all four emission scenarios of each climate model are presented in Figure 6a-e. Future flow projections were compared for the basin outlet. The observed mean monthly discharge at Qianjiang hydrological station (considered as the basin outlet) was 2238.27 m\({}^{3}\)/s. The GFDL-ESM2M historical mean monthly discharge, presented in Figure 6a, was 2433.94 m\({}^{3}\)/s, while the projected mean monthly discharge under RCP-2.6 was  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**LULC Description/Code**} & \multicolumn{5}{c}{**LULC Area Percentage**} \\ \cline{2-6}  & USGS (**2001–2010**) & ESA & ESA & ESA & **GLC** \\  & **(2001–2010)** & **1995** & **2005** & **2015** & **2000** \\ \hline Agriculture (AGRL) & 23.552 & 30.23 & 31.17 & 29.523 & 16.67 \\ Forest-Mixed (FRST) & 68.416 & 61.28 & 60.80 & 62.271 & 30.139 \\ Forest-Deciduous (FRSD) & 0.006 & 1.34 & 1.39 & 1.348 & 34.942 \\ Pasture (PAST) & NA & 0.43 & 0.15 & 0.122 & 4.98 \\ Orchard (ORCD) & 0.009 & 5.65 & 5.27 & 5.312 & NA \\ Wetlands (WETL) & 0.558 & 0.13 & 0.17 & 0.116 & 2.58 \\ Residential-Low Density (URLD) & 0.982 & 0.15 & 0.29 & 0.587 & NA \\ Water (WATR) & 0.237 & 0.71 & 0.73 & 0.721 & 0.601 \\ Forest-Evergreen (FRSE) & 0.45 & NA & NA & NA & NA \\ Agriculture Generic (AGRC) & 0.31 & NA & NA & NA & 2.02 \\ Range-Grasses (RNGE) & 5.479 & NA & NA & NA & NA \\ Meadow Bromgrass (BROM) & NA & NA & NA & NA & 8.04 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 6: SWAT land use classes.  
Figure 5: Simulated and observed discharge at Tianr Station.  
2267.93 m\({}^{3}\)/s; for RCP-4.5, 2231.61 m\({}^{3}\)/s; for RCP-6.0, 2306.45 m\({}^{3}\)/s; and for RCP-8.5, 2203.219 m\({}^{3}\)/s. The HadGEM2-ES historical mean monthly discharge, presented in Figure 6b, was 2560.865 m\({}^{3}\)/s, while the projected mean monthly discharge for RCP-2.6 was 2458.32 m\({}^{3}\)/s; for RCP-4.5, 2639.80 m\({}^{3}\)/s; for RCP-6.0, 2350.47 m\({}^{3}\)/s; and for RCP-8.5, 2516.08 m\({}^{3}\)/s. The IPSL-CM5A-LR historical mean monthly discharge, presented in Figure 6c, was 2546.93 m\({}^{3}\)/s, while the projected mean monthly discharge for RCP-2.6 was 2172.80 m\({}^{3}\)/s; for RCP-4.5, 2204.61 m\({}^{3}\)/s; for RCP-6.0, 2268.96 m\({}^{3}\)/s; and for RCP-8.5, 1911.05 m\({}^{3}\)/s. The MIROC-ESM-CHEM historical mean monthly discharge, presented in Figure 6d, was 2574.14 m\({}^{3}\)/s, while the projected mean monthly discharge for RCP-2.6 was 2268.74 m\({}^{3}\)/s; for RCP-4.5, 2250.32 m\({}^{3}\)/s; for RCP-6.0, 2355.68 m\({}^{3}\)/s; and for RCP-8.5, 2241.57 m\({}^{3}\)/s. The NorESM1-M historical mean monthly discharge, presented in Figure 6e, was 2546.93 m\({}^{3}\)/s, while the projected mean monthly discharge for RCP-2.6 was 2791.36 m\({}^{3}\)/s; for RCP-4.5, 2725.03 m\({}^{3}\)/s; for RCP-6.0, 2635.87 m\({}^{3}\)/s; and for RCP-8.5, 2692.98 m\({}^{3}\)/s. The five global climate models had similar patterns in pre-monsoon discharge trends, followed by abrupt peaks during monsoon and medium peaks post-monsoon. February, March, and April had the lowest peaks (i.e., lower than 1000 cm\({}^{3}\)/s).  
Figure 6: _Cont._  
Figure 6: Mean monthly discharge of historical and future periods under four emission scenarios for each global climate model: (**a**) GFDL-ESM2M, (**b**) HadGEM2-ES, (**c**) IPSL-CM5A-LR, (**d**) MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and (**e**) NorESM1-M.