## 4 Discussion
### Regional Future Soil Erosion and Recommendations  
The Loess Plateau is one of the most eroded locations in the world as a result of low soil erosion resistance and long-term illogical human land use and development [57; 58]. In this study, the forest farming subregion of the Loess Plateau's soil erosion situation between 2000 and 2020 was evaluated. The actual erosion modules were 48.66, 34.35, 34.23, 34.74, and 37.87 t/ha per year (Table 2), and they had a declining trend at first, followed by an increase. The initiative the Chinese government initiated in 1999 to return farmland to grassland resulted in an 11.92% decrease in soil erosion between 2000 and 2020. By altering how land is used and raising the percentage of woodland and grassland, soil erosion was effectively reduced [59; 60]. Due to the execution of these initiatives, the surface environment has changed, and the expansion of the woodland and grassland areas will significantly lessen soil erosion. Between 2010 and 2020, there was an upward tendency in the total erosion, which accelerated in 2020. This might be a result of global warming, which has significantly increased precipitation in northern China [61; 62]. Using 19 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs), the projections estimate global mean precipitation erosivity values for 2050 and 2070. The mean estimate for 2050  
Figure 10: Results of the risk detector. The non-high-risk areas are those where: (**a**) the terrain elevation is between 1595 and 2559 m; (**b**) the rainfall is between 808 and 854 mm; (**c**) the LUCC is grassland; (**d**) the slope is greater than 35 degrees; and (**e**) the NDVI ranges between 0.9 and 1.  
is in the range of 2765-2822 MJ mm ha\({}^{-1}\) h\({}^{-1}\) yr\({}^{-1}\). For 2070, the range is 2782-2942 MJ mm ha\({}^{-1}\) h\({}^{-1}\) yr\({}^{-1}\). These values represent an increase of 27-34.3% compared to the 2010 baseline [63]. Between 2020 and 2060, overall wind erosion in Central Asia will decrease, but the area of increasing wind erosion will increase compared to the current period. Water erosion in Central Asia is increasing, and the area of increasing water erosion will increase [64]. Water erosion in the Loess Plateau is higher than in Central Asia because the Loess Plateau has more gullies, higher slopes, lower vegetation cover, and higher precipitation than in Central Asia [65]. For example, the Loess Plateau has a higher population and urban density than Central Asia. The vegetation cover in the Loess Plateau has increased significantly due to the conversion of agricultural land into forests and grasslands and the ecological construction that has taken place under human intervention [66; 67]. Therefore, the contribution of vegetation and management practices is higher than that of precipitation in most areas of the Loess Plateau [68]. Due to artificial ecological restoration, water erosion on the Loess Plateau is decreasing under climate change, although precipitation is currently increasing slightly [69]. The diversity in land use type, which is the component most impacted by human activities, has a significant impact on the study region [70]. The two main ways that land use affects soil erosion are as follows: first, disturbing the surface soil affects soil compaction, which in turn influences how erosive rain and surface runoff are [71]; second, altering land cover modifies the direct impact of precipitation on the surface and regulates the process of surface runoff, which in turn modifies the severity of soil erosion [72]. The patch areas of various land use groups have varying effects on the amount of soil erosion; the amount of soil erosion is positively connected with the patch areas of cropland, whereas patches of woodland and grassland are adversely connected with the quantity of soil erosion [73]. In contrast to numerous studies, soil erosion in the forest farming subregion of the Loess Plateau has been estimated as: grassland \(>\) woodland \(>\) cultivated land \(>\) construction land \(>\) waters \(>\) unused land [59].