# Assessing the Probability of Winning a Point in Men's Padel: A Comprehensive Analysis
## 1 Introduction  
Padel, a racket sport that originated in Acapulco (Mexico) in 1969, has expanded significantly in recent years [1]. It currently has 50 national federations around the world [2]. Padel is played by individuals of various ages and competitive levels thanks to its straightforward rules and the sport's ability to adapt its physical demands to different skill levels [3]. In recent years, several professional circuits (A1 Padel, World Padel Tour, and Premier Padel) have coexisted. However, in 2024, the World Padel Tour and Premier Padel merged, with the latter becoming the most prestigious among professionals.  
Despite its remarkable growth in the last decade, the sport has received limited attention from the scientific community [4]. It is therefore crucial to carry out a constant analysis of the factors influencing performance as the sport may be changing at a faster pace compared to other more established racket sports such as tennis, badminton or squash, which have also seen substantial variations in their performance indicators since the 2000s [5].  
In the field of sport performance, research has been carried out that has focused on various aspects such as the validation of observational instruments [6; 7; 8], the time structure of the match [9; 10; 11], the anthropometric characteristics and physiological requirements of the athletes [12; 13; 14], and the analysis of the game at a technical-tactical level [15; 16; 17; 18; 19; 20; 21].  
Knowledge of the structure of the game is essential to design tasks and training sessions aimed at optimizing players' performance. Unlike tennis [22; 23], in padel, the serve (in reference to winning the point with this stroke) and the dominance from the back of the court are not determining factors for performance. Previous research has indicated that up to 80% of points are won from a position close to the net, using a variety of strokes, such as the volley (20-25%) and the tray and the smash (12-18%) [13; 17; 24]. From the start of the point, there is a constant battle for a position near the net as maintaining this position gives a tactical advantage over the opponent. Numerous studies have highlighted that the probability of winning the point increases when players maintain a position close to the net [11; 25; 26]. Although aces are rare in this sport, it has been shown that serving is more effective than returning as the serving pair wins approximately 62.5% of the points in the men's category [1].  
As for the number of shots in each rally, an average of between nine and ten shots per point has been observed in both the men's and women's categories [26; 27]. Research on time structure has revealed that padel is an intermittent sport, with an average duration in elite players of 9.30 \(\pm\) 4.00 s per point and 9.38 \(\pm\) 1.72 shots per point in matches of a 57.4 \(\pm\) 11.6 min duration [11]. These studies have also shown that in the first few seconds of the rally, more points are lost due to unforced errors whereas as the rally progresses, unforced errors decrease and winners or forced errors increase [10]. As for the variety of strokes and their direction, volleys predominate (25.0-26.8%), as do ground strokes (15.5%), which tend to be mostly cross hits (62.5-65.5%) [17].  
However, despite the information gathered in previous research, there has been a notable absence of studies that thoroughly address the probability of winning a point, taking into account different combinations of the most influential performance indicators in the sport. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to analyze the probability of winning a point in elite men's padel, considering factors such as the type of rally, the location of the players on the court where the last shot is played, the type of final shot, and the finishing area. This comprehensive approach will provide valuable information to deepen the understanding of padel performance and to improve match strategy in this sport.