# Shadow Fleets: A Growing Challenge in Global
## 5 Discussion  
The emergence of dark and gray fleets has significantly disrupted the global maritime industry, particularly in response to international sanctions on Russian oil exports. These fleets operate covertly, often evading traditional monitoring and regulatory mechanisms, which has led to cascading effects across economic, geopolitical, environmental, and regulatory spheres [Figure 1]. The scale of this phenomenon is substantial, with the dark fleet expanding rapidly to reach approximately 1100 vessels by 2024 [15]. By September 2023, it accounted for an estimated 10% of global seaborne oil transportation, with over 600 tankers from a global fleet of about 6000 engaged in covert operations [53]. The evolution of shadow fleet tactics is particularly evident in specific regional contexts. North Korea's sophisticated sanctions evasion through maritime channels has created a template now being adapted by other actors. Their techniques, particularly in ship-to-ship transfers and documentation fraud, have been refined and scaled up by larger operations. Similarly, the emergence of Chinese fishing dark fleets represents a distinct challenge, demonstrating how shadow fleet tactics are being adapted beyond sanctions evasion to resource exploitation [11; 54]. The economic impact of dark and gray fleets is multifaceted, characterized by significant market disruption. The increased demand for older vessels has led to unexpected price surges for aging tonnage, creating a parallel market operating outside normal commercial frameworks [55; 56]. This has resulted in the disruption of traditional market dynamics and fleet renewal patterns [57]. Furthermore, reduced vessel availability has increased shipping  
Figure 1: The impact of dark and gray fleets on the maritime industry: cascade repercussions. Source: Own elaboration (compiled from multiple sources). costs, with these higher costs being transferred to legitimate cargo owners. The G7's price cap mechanism on Russian oil, introduced in December 2022, has faced challenges in enforcement, with reports suggesting significant breaches of the cap [47; 58]. The tanker sale and purchase market has seen a significant shift, with older vessels that might have been destined for scrap yards now fetching premium prices. This trend has altered fleet renewal patterns and complicated long-term planning for legitimate operators [59]. With tanker demolition rates at historic lows, ships that would typically be scrapped are instead being pressed into service in these shadowy operations [55]. These developments have collectively reshaped the maritime industry's economic landscape, creating a complex web of challenges for stakeholders across the sector. Geopolitically, these fleets have enabled Russia to continue and even expand oil sales despite sanctions, facilitating a shift in export destinations from Europe to Asian markets, particularly India and China [60]. The opacity in ownership structures complicates the understanding of these operations, raising concerns about funds potentially supporting undesired activities, such as the Russian war effort. Moreover, there are significant challenges in balancing regulatory enforcement with complex international relations [61]. Environmental and safety concerns are paramount in the context of dark and gray fleets. Over 50% of dark fleet vessels exceed 15 years of age, increasing the risk of mechanical failures, accidents, and oil spills. There are serious concerns about inadequate maintenance standards and outdated safety equipment, heightening the potential for major environmental disasters, especially in sensitive areas [62]. Additionally, the growing number of uninsured or underinsured vessels poses an increased risk to coastal communities and ecosystems [63]. Empirical analysis reveals environmental risks associated with shadow fleet operations.