# Forecasting the Impacts of Prescribed Fires  
for Dynamic Air Quality Management  
[PERSON]  
1 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA; [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (R.H.); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (A.A.P. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (R.D.S. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Y.H. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (A.G.R.) [PERSON]  
1 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA; [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (R.H.); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (A.A.P. ); [PERSON](R.D.S. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Y.H. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (A.G.R.) [PERSON]  
1 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA; [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (R.H.); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (A.A.P. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (R.D.S. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Y.H. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (A.G.R.) [PERSON]  
1 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA; [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (R.H.); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (A.A.P. ); [PERSON](R.D.S. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Y.H. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (A.G.R.) [PERSON]  
1 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA; [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (R.H.); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (A.A.P. ); [PERSON](R.D.S. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Y.H. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (A.G.R.) [PERSON]  
1 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA; [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (R.H.); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (A.A.P. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (R.D.S. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Y.H. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (A.G.R.) [PERSON]  
2 Brook Byers Institute for Sustainable Systems, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA; [EMAIL_ADDRESS]  
Correspondence: [EMAIL_ADDRESS]; Tel. : +1-404-894-27834  
heavily, prescribed fire has become the leading source of PM\({}_{2.5}\) (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 \(\upmu\)m) in Southeastern USA, with 250 Gg year\({}^{-1}\) or 27% of the total emissions [8]. Wildfires are expected to increase in the future as a result of the changing climate [9; 10]. We can expect a similar increase in the use of prescribed fire as a measure to prevent wildfires. This will further increase the burden of prescribed fire emissions on the air quality of the region. Accepting PB as a desirable forestry practice but understanding its negative impacts on air quality brings the challenge of finding the best compromise between forestry and air quality interests. Static solutions, such as imposing a burn ban during certain times of the year when air quality is typically burdened (e.g., ozone season) may be too restrictive for forestry interests. Conversely, conducting burns during certain times of the year (e.g., growing season) without regard for air quality may be inadequate to air quality interests. A more acceptable solution for both interests may be found through dynamic air quality management (DAQM), a paradigm where new information is incorporated in decision-making as soon as it becomes available. DAQM can involve the adaptation to new data that becomes available, such as air pollution measurements or new emissions estimates, or changes in activity patterns. For example, instead of operating with the same official emissions inventory for several years, updated inventories could be used for interim years. Perhaps the most agile form of DAQM is the one based on forecasting. PB activity is closely related to weather, especially to rain and winds [11]. Therefore, the upcoming demand for burning can be predicted from the weather forecast. Similarly, air quality can be, and is being, predicted using the weather forecast. Knowledge of the day-to-day fluctuations in prescribed fire emissions according to burn demand predictions can significantly improve the accuracy of air quality forecasts. A reliable forecasting system, including weather, burn activity, air quality and impacts of PB on air quality, could lead to cohesive PB and air quality management strategies.