## 3 Results and Discussion
### Projection of Equivalent CO\({}_{2}\) Emissions  
Two simulated scenarios over a 20 year period (2019-2039) were proposed. The first of them was based on the information presented in Table 2 (P0218-0119). This projection, the trend scenario, considered no urban road improvement or mitigation actions, assuming that the conditions remain unchanged over the 20 year period. This projection shows an annual increase in CO\({}_{2}\)e emissions that results in a total of 5,037,728 ton/year in 2039, which is the end of the scenario. The behavior of these increases is illustrated by the red bars in Figure 9.  
The second scenario uses engine performance (Pf) as a main variable for data activity (DA) to estimate CO\({}_{2}\)e emissions and its annual increase factor was set at 1.1%, supported by the20 year period of historical data [36]. This leads to a proportional increase in emissions due to an increase in vehicle efficiency and a higher vehicle demand since performance (Pf) is a function of the vehicle's average age and mechanical conditions.  
Additionally, improved road infrastructure could promote continuous vehicular flow, avoiding traffic jams, interruptions, and improving the behavior of the performance variable (Pf), which is directly related to fuel consumption and, consequently, a higher performance due to lower CO\({}_{2}\)e emissions. In the 2039 projection, incorporating the mentioned improvement and changes, the decrease in CO\({}_{2}\) emissions is of up to 5% (green bars, Figure 9). As can be appreciated in the modeling, the emissions behavior is exponential, revealing growth in the trend scenario and a differentiated decrease in the modified scenario. In addition, despite the expected impact of a population growth and an increased motorization index in the future, which will increase vehicle volume and, presumably, CO\({}_{2}\)e values, the total emissions projected until 2039 in the modified scenario remained below those of the base period P0218-0119. This demonstrates that improvement actions focused directly on vehicles and urban planning will result in effective GHG mitigation in the sector.  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multicolumn{2}{c}{**Emissions by Vehicle Type**} & \multicolumn{1}{c}{**Travels**} & \multicolumn{1}{c}{**Performance**} & \multicolumn{1}{c}{**Fuel**} & \multicolumn{1}{c}{**Emission Factor \({}^{*}\)**} & \multicolumn{1}{c}{**CO\({}_{2}\)e Emissions**} \\ \hline
**Type** & \% & Units & Km/Year & Km/L & L/Year & ton/L & ton/Year \\ \hline
**Cars** & 94.00 & 38,303,919 & 436,664,678 & 7.821 & 55,832,333 & 0.0022 & 128,152 \\ \hline
**Buses** & 0.91 & 370,815 & 4,227,286 & 3.673 & 1,150,940 & 0.0033 & 3816 \\ \hline
**Cargo** & \multirow{2}{*}{3.91} & \multirow{2}{*}{1,593,280} & \multirow{2}{*}{18,163,392} & \multirow{2}{*}{3.982} & \multirow{2}{*}{4,561,374} & \multirow{2}{*}{0.0033} & \multirow{2}{*}{15,123} \\
**vehicles** & & & & & & & \\ \hline
**Motorcycles** & 1.18 & 480,836 & 5,481,535 & 44.000 & 124,580 & 0.0070 & 880 \\ \hline
**Total** & & & 464,536,891 & & & & 147,971 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}  
* Weighted emissions factor for each type of transport.  
\end{table}
Table 2: Base year emissions by type of vehicle (P0218-0119).  
Finally, when comparing the improvement scenario with the trend scenario, emissions decrease under 1% over the first eight years. A gradual decrease begins in 2027, which continues until 2039, when the percentage is almost 5%.