# The Predictive Grey Forecasting Approach for Measuring Tax Collection
## 2 Literature Review and Conceptual Framework
### Trends of Tax Collection During COVID-19  
At the beginning of the pandemic, it was predicted that \"direct taxes cannot be raised since profits and incomes were badly hit. Non-tax revenue, too, was not expected to contribute more since the public sector was also under stress\" ([PERSON], 2020). Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty during a pandemic is challenging, and effective coordination of fiscal and monetary policies is essential in mitigating these uncertainties ([PERSON] and [PERSON], 2022). Various events, such as natural calamities, economic recession, etc., severely affect a country's economy and tax collection. It was found that efficiency levels of tax collection fell during the economic slowdown in Spain ([PERSON] et al., 2021). Despite the fall in crude prices, rice helped the government increase the excise duty without passing the benefit of falling crude oil prices to the public to make up for its revenue loss due to the pandemic. Various states in India reprioritized their expenses to cope with falling revenues during the pandemic, but this was not enough for them to make up their losses ([PERSON] and [PERSON], 2021). Pre-COVID studies observed that there was a continuous increase in tax collection without any exception; a study stated,\" Irrespective of economic and market conditions, the collection of direct taxes had always increased. The observed increase can be seen as a result of continuous reforms in taxation policy of India\" ([PERSON] and [PERSON], 2022). However, in the financial year of 2019-20, the number of income tax returns filed and the amount of income declared by taxpayers decreased. A fall of sixteen percent in corporate tax collection was also observed during the financial year ([PERSON], 2021).  
The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant disruptions worldwide ([PERSON] and [PERSON], 2020). The fact is evidenced by the fact that direct tax collection in India fell for the first time from INR 10,50,681 in 2019-20 to INR 9,47,176 in 2020-21. The recovery was expected to be slow and uncertain, and it took several years to return to pre-pandemic levels ([PERSON] and [PERSON], 2020).  
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a key economic growth and development driver, particularly in emerging market economies (EMEs). In recent years, the BRICS countries--Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa--have emerged as major recipients of FDI and have become important sources of outbound investment. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted FDI flows worldwide, including in the BRICS countries. A literature review examined the trends and determinants of FDI in the BRICS countries, focusing on the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic ([PERSON] et al., 2022).  
A combination of market size, economic growth, natural resources ([PERSON] et al., 2024), and political factors drives FDI inflows to the BRICS countries. However, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted FDI flows, with negative effects and opportunities emerging in some countries. Therefore, policymakers in the BRICS countries should address the pandemic and improve the business environment to attract FDI inflows post pandemic ([PERSON] et al., 2022).