###### Abstract  
The rate of deforestation declined steadily in Thailand since the year 2000 due to economic transformation away from forestry. However, these changes did not occur in Nan Province located in northern Thailand. Deforestation is expected to continue due to high demand for forest products and increased agribusiness. The objectives of this paper are (1) to predict land-use change in the province based on trends, market-based and conservation scenarios, (2) to quantify biodiversity, and (3) to identify biodiversity hotspots at greatest risk for future deforestation. This study used a dynamic land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) to allocate aggregated land demand for three scenarios and employed FRAGSTATS to determine the spatial pattern of land-use change. In addition, the InVEST Global Biodiversity Assessment Model framework was used to estimate biodiversity expressed as the remaining mean species abundance (MSA) relative to their abundance in the pristine reference condition. Risk of deforestation and the MSA values were combined to determine biodiversity hotspots across the landscape at greatest risk. The results revealed that most of the forest cover in 2030 would remain in the west and east of the province, which are rugged and not easily accessible, as well as in protected areas. MSA values are predicted to decrease from 0.41 in 2009 to 0.29, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively, under the trends, market-based and conservation scenarios in 2030. In addition, the low, medium, and high biodiversity zones cover 46, 49 and 6% of Nan Province. Protected areas substantially contribute to maintaining forest cover and greater biodiversity. Important measures to protect remaining cover and maintain biodiversity include patrolling at-risk deforestation areas, reduction of road expansion in pristine forest areas, and promotion of incentive schemes for farmers to rehabilitate degraded ecosystems. b 2019 11 649 10.3390/su11030649 10.  
or NESDP (1961-1981) [4] focused on commercial crops for international trade. This national policy resulted in a rapid increase of cultivated land area by two-fold, from 15% in 1961 to 31% in 1980 [5]. In addition, the agricultural sector contributed more than 25% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Thailand [6] and more than 70% of the total population worked in the agricultural sector [7]. Since 1980, Thailand's national policies have shifted from an agriculture-based economy to manufacturing and service sectors. Thailand is currently in the fourth stage (Thailand 4.0) in which the economy moved towards value-based and innovative products [8]. The contribution of the service sector now accounts for over 50% of the total GDP. In contrast, the contribution of the agricultural sector dropped below 10% after 1990 [6]. Nevertheless, a large proportion of the labor force (56% of total population) is involved in the agricultural sector [7]. Agricultural and economic development policies resulted in both positive and negative consequences. In addition, agricultural policies largely maximize economic return, while degrade biodiversity and ecosystem services in most developing countries [9; 10]. A substantial increase in agricultural income is mainly due to cultivation of forest land. Forest cover declined from 53.3% of the country in 1961 to 25.1% in 1999 [11], despite the nationwide logging ban imposed in 1989 [12]. A recent assessment spanning 2000-2016 revealed that forest cover in Thailand stabilized at 31-33%, largely due to economic transformation and strict law enforcement [11]. However, forest land was not converted at the same rate and evenly distributed across the country. The decreased deforestation rate (8.1%) was observed in northern Thailand during 2000-2016, and the greatest rate of 16% was reported in Nan province followed by Chiang Mai province (12%) in northern Thailand. In contrast, the remaining forest cover in central and southern Thailand stabilized during this period [11].