## 3 Results
### Trend and Variability of Rainfall and Temperature
#### 3.2.2 Trend and Variability of Temperature  
The most significant consequence of global climate change is the rise in temperature. In this study, annual, monthly, and seasonal temperature data from 1984 to 2023 were analyzed to assess the variability and trends of temperature changes in the Sawena district (Table 5).  
The Mann-Kendall trend analysis for temperature in Sawena district (1984-2023) reveals a consistent warming trend across most months and seasons. Significant increases in temperature are observed for January to October except March, with Kendall's tau values indicating moderate to strong trends. September shows the highest warming rate (Sen's slope = 0.049 \({}^{\circ}\)C/year), followed by June and August as indicated in Table 3.  
However, March, September, and November displayed insignificant trends, with March showing a moderate rise but with an insignificant \(p\)-value of 0.116. November exhibited minimal change (\(p\)-value = 0.972), and December had a moderate but inconclusive upward trend (\(p\)-value = 0.064), suggesting some evidence of warming but not strong enough to confirm a definitive pattern.  
In respect to seasons, as indicated in Table 5, winter, spring, summer, and autumn all exhibit significant warming trends in Sawena district. Winter temperatures rise by 0.026 \({}^{\circ}\)C/year, spring by 0.035 \({}^{\circ}\)C/year, summer experiences the strongest increase at  
Figure 5: Trend of autumn season rainfall.  
Figure 6: Trend of annual rainfall in Sawena district.  
0.038 \({}^{\circ}\)C/year, and autumn follows with a 0.033 \({}^{\circ}\)C/year rise. These seasonal trends highlight the consistent warming across the district, reflecting the broader impact of climate change. The mean annual temperature also shows a strong and significant upward trend, indicating a steady annual temperature increase of 0.034 \({}^{\circ}\)C over the study period.  
The coefficient of variation is generally low across the months, indicating stable temperature variations with its maximum (4.10%) and minimum (2.43%) variations recorded in April and January, respectively.  
Overall, the temperature in Sawena district has increased significantly over the last four decades, with September showing the largest increase. Warming trends are especially pronounced during the winter, summer, and autumn seasons, while spring also exhibits moderate warming. The strong annual increase of 0.034 \({}^{\circ}\)C in the district suggests that climate change is having a noticeable impact, leading to warmer temperatures across all seasons. These findings may have important implications for agricultural practices, water resources, and general living conditions in the area, necessitating adaptive strategies to cope with rising temperatures. Figure 7 illustrates the winter season temperatures and Figure 8 illustrates the annual mean temperature trends in Sawena district.  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Item** & **Mean** & **Std. Deviation** & **Coeff. of Variation** & **Kendall’s Tau** & **MK Statistic (MKS)** & \(p\)**-Value** & **Sen’s Slope** \\ \hline Month & & & & & & \\ January & 24.49 & 0.596 & 2.432 & 0.362 & 282 & 0.001 \({}^{\ast}\) & 0.025 \\ February & 25.69 & 0.675 & 2.625