## 3 Results
### Land Use Changes Comparison
* Higher K\({}_{\text{Loc}}\) values in the nineteenth century (the comparison of the 1817 and 1907 maps) show that most categories are in identical positions in both maps. * Higher K\({}_{\text{Histo}}\) values in the last half century (the comparison of the 1960 and 2009 maps) show a fair permanence, with the amounts total hectares belonging to the various LU types remaining constant when not considering whether there has been a change in spatial location. This statistic is supported and confirmed by the data reported in Table 8, in which it is possible to recognize the lowest differences in area variation (with the exception of urban areas and vineyards, which offset each other) compared to the other periods considered. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**LU\_1907** & **LU\_1960** & **1\textless{}Urban** & **2\textless{}Agricultural Uses** & **3\textless{}Vineyard** & **4\textless{}Forest** & **Sparse Vegetated** & **Sum LU\_1907** \\ \hline
1—Urban & 6384.7 & 3758.5 & 2051.6 & 33.9 & 151.7 & 12,360.4 \\
2\textless{}Agricultural uses & 470.7 & 5358.0 & 1421.5 & 15.8 & 211.8 & 7477.8 \\
3—Vineyard & 7547.6 & 83,295.4 & 57,263.6 & 5801.2 & 3857.6 & 157,765.4 \\
4—Forest & 33.1 & 725.3 & 6276.0 & 21,928.1 & 7384.9 & 36,417.4 \\
5—Sparse & 639.0 & 2562.1 & 6978.3 & 12,427.6 & 32,823.0 & 55,430.0 \\ \hline Sum LU\_1960** & **150751** & 95,699.5 & **73,971.1** & **40,206.6** & **44,428.9** & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 7: Contingency table of land cover change for the period 1907–1960. Results represent the areas under change and are expressed in ha. Cells in orange report a loss in ha, while green ones report a net gain in ha. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**LU\_1960** & **LU\_2009** & **1\textless{}Urban** & **2\textless{}Agricultural Uses** & **3\textless{}Vineyard** & **4\textless{}Forest** & **5\textless{}Sparse Vegetated** & **Sum LU\_1960** \\ \hline
1—Urban & 11,053.0 & 2831.7 & 0.0 & 86.7 & 1112.9 & 15,084.3 \\
2\textless{}Agricultural uses & 27,890.1 & 59,665.6 & 0.0 & 970.2 & 7097.2 & 95,623.2 \\
3–Vineyard & 19,551.4 & 27,261.6 & 0.2 & 6541.6 & 20,581.0 & 73,935.9 \\
4—Forest & 2706.9 & 3521.2 & 184.2 & 25,634.7 & 8169.9 & 40,216.9 \\ vegetated & 4427.8 & 2633.3 & 206.0 & 19,494.4 & 17,175.4 & 44,391.8 \\ \hline Sum LU\_2009** & **65,629.2** & **95,913.5** & **390.4** & **53,182.6** & **54,136.5** & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 8: Contingency table of land cover change for the period 1960–2009. Results represent the areas under change and are expressed in ha. Cells in orange report a loss in ha, while green ones report a net gain in ha. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c} \hline \hline
**LU\_1817** & **LU\_1907** & **LU\_1907** & **LU\_1960** & **LU\_1960** & **LU\_2009** & **LU\_1817** & **LU\_2009** \\ \hline Kappa & 0.18408 & 0.30037 & 0.27414 & 0.30206 \\ K\({}_{\text{Location}}\) & 0.65165 & 0.55157 & 0.41714 & 0.63008 \\ K\({}_{\text{Histo}}\) & 0.28248 & 0.54457 & 0.65719 & 0.4794 \\ Fraction correct & 0.33094 & 0.45941 & 0.42165 & 0.46025 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 9: Kappa algorithms comparison. * The fraction correct statistic, which calculates the number of equal cells divided by the total number of cells, shows that the most significant land use transformations occurred between 1817 and 1907. From the urban/peri-urban scale analysis, taking as its starting point the perimeter of urban areas in 2009, previous land uses in the same areas were determined. Specifically, the analysis referred to:
* a comparison between 2009 and 1960, in order to analyse the development of trends in the last fifty years;
* a comparison between 2009 and 1817, in order to analyse all of the changes affecting the land surrounding urban areas in the last two centuries. The urban areas of the 2009 map cover 4102 ha, while these same areas were 530 ha in 1817 and 945 ha in 1960. The growth rate of urban areas between 1817 and 2009 is almost 800%.