# A Data-Driven Analysis on the Impact of High-Speed Rails on Land Prices in Taiwan
## 4 Data-Driven Analysis
### Determining Factors Affecting Land Prices  
Monthly data were collected from the CEIC Database [48] for six cities with HSR stations (i.e., Taipei, Kaohsiung, Taichung, Tainan, Hsinchu, and Taoyuan) and five cities without HSR stations (i.e., Keelung, Hualien, Yilan, Taitung, and Nantou) across a period of twelve years that spanned between 2005 and 2016. This time period captured the data prior to the implementation of HSR in 2005 until 2016 inclusive. For data that were only provided in quarterly averages, the values were duplicated for each month in the quarter. The base model is a full multivariate linear regression on all the data collected as shown the Equation (1). \[U\!LPI_{1}=\beta_{0}+\beta_{1}(HSR)+\beta_{2}(H\!S\!I)+\beta_{3}(GenPop)+\beta_ {4}(UnEmp)+\beta_{5}(CPI)+\beta_{6}(Fprex)\]  
\[+\beta_{7}(IRrf)+\beta_{8}(5 BanklR)+\beta_{9}(NumCom)+\beta_{10}(NumGuests)+\beta_ {11}(Internet)\]  
\[+\beta_{12}(FTZ)+\beta_{13}(AirDist)+\beta_{14}(CC)+\beta_{15}(Energy)+\beta_{16 }(RoadDen)+\varepsilon \tag{1}\]  
The regression model was estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS). The model fit reported a high \(R^{2}\) value of 85%, meaning that the explanatory variables provided a high explanatory power of land prices. However, the model in (1) suggests that \"\(HSR\)\" and \"risk-free interest rates\" variables were insignificant at a 99% confidence level with \(p\)-values greater than 0.01 (Figure 5). \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l l c c c c c} \hline  & & **Average** & **Medium** & **Minimum** & **Maximum** & **Variance** \\ \hline Before HSR, & & & & & & & \\ N= 867 & Urban Land Price Index & 97.87 & 95.87 & 99.93 & 131.93 & 163.46 \\  & Housing Price to Income Ratio & 5.98 & 6.09 & 3.84 & 8.85 & 0.81 \\  & Population & 613.73 & 371.86 & 220.80 & 2,760.18 & 517,372.54 \\  & Unemployment Rate & 4.29 & 4.10 & 3.50 & 6.00 & 0.31 \\  & Consumer Price Index & 98.42 & 98.58 & 90.70 & 106.99 & 19.73 \\  & Exchange Rate & 31.54 & 31.85 & 28.73 & 34.30 & 1.84 \\  & Risk Free Interest Rate & 2.05 & 1.88 & 1.25 & 3.63 & 0.35 \\  & Commer. Borrow. I/R & 3.33 & 2.89 & 2.56 & 4.44 & 0.38 \\  & \# of companies & 11,433.55 & 4,864.00 & 983.00 & 170,230.00 & 862,673,875.74 \\  & Hotel Guests & 102,142.48 & 94,835.00 & 12,010.00 & 279,563.00 & 4,058,820,970.10 \\  & Internet Pene. Rate & 57.32 & 57.00 & 35.40 & 81.40 & 107.85 \\  & FTZ & 0.23 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 1.00 & 0.18 \\  & Dist to Airport & 21.91 & 5.00 & 5.00 & 70.00 & 583.03 \\  & Constru- cion cost (’000) & 232.94 & 83.13 & 0.00 & 1,999,010.00 & 120,069,126,410.42 \\  & Energy Px Index & 71.91 & 71.22 & 41.89 & 116.58 & 535.08 \\  & Road Density & 40,073.20 & 39,490.00 & 37,336.00 & 43,365.00 & 3,740,088.94 \\  & Population Density & 1,067.10 & 213.00 & 63.00 & 9,684.00 & 3,590,642.13 \\ \hline After HSR, & & & & & & \\ N = 719 & Urban Land Price Index & 98.93 & 93.45 & 63.82 & 130.99 & 251.37 \\  & Housing Price to Income Ratio & 7.82 & 6.88 & 5.13 & 16.16 & 7.38 \\  & Population & 2,067.29 & 2,145.90 & 394.89 & 2,779.88 & 663,997.17 \\  & Unemployment Rate & 4.37 & 4.20 & 3.60 & 6.10 & 0.41 \\  & Consumer Price Index & 100.74 & 100.87 & 92.72 & 106.99 & 10.38 \\  & Exchange Rate & 31.28 & 31.22 & 28.73 & 106.99 & 10.05 \\  & Risk Free Interest Rate & 2.01 & 1.88 & 1.25 & 31.59 & 1.66 \\  & Commer. Borrow. I/R & 3.09 & 2.88 & 1.38 & 4.44 & 0.37 \\  & \# of companies & 61,023.17 & 45,671.00 & 8,390.00 & 175,544.00 & 2,674,540,771.54 \\  & Hotel Guests & 262,517.61 & 2120.90 & 50.206,05.00 & 980,459.00 & 42,036,455,711.06 \\  & Internet Pene. Rate & 71.02 & 70.40 & 55.60 & 93.80 & 90.79 \\  & FTZ & 0.54 & 1.00 & 0.00 & 1.00 & 0.25 \\  & Dist to Airport & 21.70 & 20.00 & 0.00 & 60.00 & 323.26 \\  & Constru- cion cost (’000) & 1,455.95 & 1,050.10 & 88.86 & 10,240.93 & 1,873,957,920.68 \\  & Energy Px Index & 83.22 & 83.19 & 46.46 & 116.58 & 356.53 \\  & Road Density & 41,078.39 & 41,916.00 & 38,526.00 & 43,365.00 & 2,105,873.98 \\  & Population Density & 3,063.84 & 1,249.00 & 853.00 & 9,951.00 & 10,074,287.76 \\ \hline \end{tabular}
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