## 2 Methods
### Experiment Design  
For the future (2020-2099) period, a control run without LULCC and experiments with LULCC were run to examine the impact of LULCC on carbon and water dynamics. The control experiment consisted of the future model run in which the LULC remains at 2017 values. Sensitivity experiments were then performed using monthly transient climate from 2020 to 2099, to experiment with different percentages of LULCC for the city of Bethlehem based on the types of LULCC outlined in the CAP [3]. Different percentages of land use conversion (10%, 25%, and 50%) were used to determine what threshold of change results in a significant difference from the control. The change to LULC will be implemented in the year 2030 when new cohorts are created from the source cohort. The new cohorts are land use types created from the preexisting land use types following the disturbance. While the Bethlehem CAP is designed to increase sustainability (experiments 1 and 2), two experiments were added to see what the impact of decreased forest (experiments 3 and 4) would be and simulate further development (Table 1). When a forest is converted to an impervious surface or turflawn, a disturbance is created in the forest cohorts, as described above; the area is reduced, and new cohorts of impervious surface or turflawn are created. When impervious surfaces or turflawn are converted to forest, the area of the impervious surface or turflawn is reduced, and new forest cohorts are created. The newly created cohorts have different properties from the original cohorts because the forest stand age is reset and, in the case of forest to impervious surface, the soil texture is changed to 100% clay, and water penetration into the surface is allowed. Additionally, no evapotranspiration was allowed for sitting water on impermeable surfaces, assuming the water runs off fast enough to prevent evapotranspiration at the source location.  
From the original classification image used for Lehigh Valley, a subset of Bethlehem was extracted. The Bethlehem run used the same inputs as Lehigh Valley after being cropped to only retain the grids of Bethlehem. The city was divided into four regions, north, south, east, and west, to study how the same percentage of LULCC could affect the regions with their differing proportions of each land use type. The northern section of Bethlehem has more green space than the other sections, and South Bethlehem (locally referred to as the South Side) has the highest proportion of impervious surfaces. The values for the city of Bethlehem were recalculated to account for accurate estimates of LULC for the four grids representing the four quadrants of the city.  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Experiment** & **Sub-Experiments** & **Lawn** & **Forest** & **Impervious** \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{1 (L2F)} & \multirow{2}{*}{1, 2, 3} & Decrease by 10\%, & Increase by 10\%, & \\  & & 25\%, 50\% & 25\%, 50\% & \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{2 (I2F)} & \multirow{2}{*}{4, 5, 6} & & Increase by 10\%, & Decrease by 10\%, \\  & & & 25\%, 50\% & 25\%, 50\% \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{3 (F2L)} & \multirow{2}{*}{7, 8, 9} & Increase by 10\%, & Decrease by 10\%, & \\  & & 25\%, 50\% & 25\%, 50\% & \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{4 (F2I)} & \multirow{2}{*}{10, 11, 12} & Decrease by 10\%, & Increase by 10\%, & \\  & & 25\%, 50\% & 25\%, 50\% & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 1: LULCC experiments based on the CAP. Sub-experiments are based on the percent change in each experiment, including 10%, 25%, and 50% change. L2F = lawn to forest, IZF = impervious to forest, F2L = forest to lawn, F2I = forest to impervious. Sub-experiments refer to the 10%, 25%, and 50% changes, respectively.