# Optimization of Electricity Generation Technologies to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Egypt
## 2 Materials and Methods
### MESSAGE Modeling
In this study, we used different technologies to generate and transform energy from the resource level to the final demand level that can be used by the population, as shown in Figure 1. The input data to the technology are illustrated in Table 2. The parameters identified for each technology are efficiency, capacity factor, retired time, investment cost, fixed cost and historical capacity of this technology. After generating electricity (whatever the source of generation; hydro, solar, wind, Nuclear... ), this electricity will be distributed by transmission lines. The efficiency of distribution and transmission was calculated from the collected data from 1980 to 2018. The average distribution loss is 12.55% from electricity generation. In Table 2, we mention the efficiency of electricity transmission and distribution (Elec-TD) is 0.874. Figure 3: Comparison between five models used for Egyptian future electricity demand. The export and import electricity are neglected in this study according to the historical data collected. Figure 4 illustrates the net exports of electricity. The net export is electricity export minus electricity import. As we can see, the average net electricity export is 0.652 billion kWh which represents 0.5% from electricity generated in Egypt and 0.6% from the country's electricity consumption. In this study, some parameters were used as constant values because the future values are unavailable. A sensitivity analysis was performed on two parameters to explain the uncertainty in the output of a mathematical model; the first one is increasing the discount rate from 8.75% to 21.5%. This value is the highest value of discount rate from 1991 to 2020 [15]. Figure 5 shows the cases used in the sensitivity analysis. The simulation was performed on two planning horizons without any constraint on the CO2 emission or electricity generated by natural gas and with constraint. The second parameter is decreasing the investment cost of renewable energy by 25% of the value used in the simulation. The second parameter was applied without any constraint and with constraint. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{\begin{tabular}{c} **Technology** \\ **Name** \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{2}{*}{**Efficiency**} & \multirow{2}{*}{\begin{tabular}{c} **Plant** \\ **Capacity** \\ **Factor** \\ \end{tabular} } & \begin{tabular}{c} **Investment** \\ **Cost** \\ **(USD/kW)** \\ **(17]** \\ \end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{c} **Fixed Cost** \\ **(USS/kW/yr)** \\ **(Year)** \\ \end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{c} **Retired Time** \\ **(Mw)** \\ \end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{c} **Historical Capacity** \\ **(MW)** \\ \end{tabular} \\ \hline Electricity & & & & & & \\ distribution & 0.874 & N/A & N/A & N/A & 50 & \begin{tabular}{c} Using historical data \\ from 1991 to 2015 \\ \end{tabular} \\ (Elec-TD) & & & & & & & \\ \hline Oil steam & & & & & & \\ turbine power & 0.4 [17] & 0.47 & 825 & 18 & 49 & \begin{tabular}{c} Using historical data \\ from 1991 to 2015 \\ \end{tabular} \\ plant & & & & & & & \\ turbine power & 0.42 [17] & 0.47 & 676 & 30 & 47 & \begin{tabular}{c} Using historical data \\ from 1990 to 2015 \\ \end{tabular} \\ (Gas-PP-ST) & & & & & & & \\ \hline Gas Combine & & & & & & \\ cycle power & 0.56 [17] & 0.47 & 917 & 18.3 & 26 & \begin{tabular}{c} Using historical data \\ from 1990 to 2015 \\ \end{tabular} \\ plant & & & & & & & \\ \hline Solar power & & & & & & \\ plant & - & 0.36 & 4800 & 60 & 25 & \begin{tabular}{c} Using historical data \\ from 2000 to 2015 \\ \end{tabular} \\ plant & & & & & & & \\ \hline Hydro power & & & & & & \\ plant & (Hydro) & - & 0.47 & 2640 & 60 & 70 & \
\begin{tabular}{c} Using historical data \\ from 1991 to 2015 \\ \end{tabular} \\ \hline Wind power & & & & & & & \\ plant & - & 0.33 & 2000 & 60 & 20 &
\begin{tabular}{c} Using historical data \\ from 2000 to 2015 \\ \end{tabular} \\ \hline Nuclear power & & & & & & & \\ plant (Nuc-PP) & & & & & & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 2: Input parameters of the technologies in MESAGE.