# A Dynamic Assessment Methodology for Accident Occurrence Probabilities of Gas Distribution Station
## 3 Application of the Methodology
### Practical and Managerial Implications  
The proposed methodology offers actionable insights for maintaining GDSs. By dynamically updating probabilities of REs and UEs, operators can achieve the following:  
* Prioritize Critical Components: The importance measures (e.g., BM, RRW) identify high-risk REs (e.g., X\({}_{4}\): non-compliance with operating procedures, X\({}_{60}\): automatic emergency cut-off controller failure), enabling targeted inspections and resource allocation.
* Real-Time Risk Mitigation: Integration with GDS integrity management platforms allows automatic updates using new failure data. For instance, if X\({}_{60}\)'s failure probability increases, maintenance teams can immediately inspect controller units or schedule replacements.
* Adaptive Maintenance Plans: The probability adaptation feature (Section 2.3.3) refines maintenance schedules based on near-misses. For example, a leakage incident triggers adjustments to RE probabilities, highlighting vulnerabilities in corrosion detection (X\({}_{37}\)) or valve integrity (X\({}_{55}\)), prompting preemptive repairs.  
Figure 8: The ratio of variation for the probabilities of the REs.  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l l l l l l} \hline \hline
**RE** & **Adapted Probability** & **RE** & **Adapted Probability** & **RE** & **Adapted Probability** \\ \hline X\({}_{1}\) & \(2.47\times 10^{-3}\) & X\({}_{19}\) & \(2.91\times 10^{-3}\) & X\({}_{37}\) & \(5.17\times 10^{-2}\) \\ X\({}_{2}\) & \(1.92\times 10^{-4}\) & X\({}_{20}\) & \(2.98\times 10^{-2}\) & X\({}_{38}\) & \(2.48\times 10^{-4}\) \\ X\({}_{3}\) & \(1.75\times 10^{-1}\) & X\({}_{21}\) & \(7.93\times 10^{-3}\) & X\({}_{39}\) & \(3.99\times 10^{-2}\) \\ X\({}_{4}\) & \(2.75\times 10^{-1}\) & X\({}_{22}\) & \(2.91\times 10^{-3}\) & X\({}_{40}\) & \(1.20\times 10^{-1}\) \\ X\({}_{5}\) & \(2.62\times 10^{-3}\) & X\({}_{23}\) & \(1.51\times 10^{-2}\) & X\({}_{41}\) & \(1.68\times 10^{-1}\) \\ X\({}_{6}\) & \(1.83\times 10^{-1}\) & X\({}_{24}\) & \(2.10\times 10^{-3}\) & X\({}_{42}\) & \(2.09\times 10^{-3}\) \\ X\({}_{7}\) & \(4.11\times 10^{-2}\) & X\({}_{25}\) & \(1.94\times 10^{-3}\) & X\({}_{43}\) & \(3.57\times 10^{-2}\) \\ X\({}_{8}\) & \(1.60\times 10^{-1}\) & X\({}_{26}\) & \(1.94\times 10^{-3}\) & X\({}_{44}\) & \(4.17\times 10^{-3}\) \\ X\({}_{9}\) & \(1.60\times 10^{-1}\) & X\({}_{27}\) & \(5.10\times 10^{-4}\) & X\({}_{45}\) & \(2.75\times 10^{-2}\) \\ X\({}_{10}\) & \(1.65\times 10^{-1}\) & X\({}_{28}\) & \(9.60\times 10^{-4}\) & X\({}_{46}\) & \(6.99\times 10^{-2}\) \\ X\({}_{11}\) & \(1.33\times 10^{-1}\) & X\({}_{29}\) & \(9.80\times 10^{-4}\) & X\({}_{47}\) & \(3.72\times 10^{-3}\) \\ X\({}_{12}\) & \(1.48\times 10^{-3}\) & X\({}_{30}\) & \(1.22\times 10^{-3}\) & X\({}_{48}\) & \(4.35\times 10^{-2}\) \\ X\({}_{13}\) & \(6.99\times 10^{-2}\) & X\({}_{31}\) & \(2.30\times 10^{-4}\) & X\({}_{49}\) & \(2.75\times 10^{-3}\) \\ X\({}_{14}\) & \(2.75\times 10^{-3}\) & X\({}_{32}\) & \(1.90\times 10^{-4}\) & X\({}_{50}\) & \(3.08\times 10^{-3}\) \\ X\({}_{15}\) & \(1.59\times 10^{-2}\) & X\({}_{33}\) & \(1.32\times 10^{-3}\) & X\({}_{51}\) & \(2.10\times 10^{-2}\) \\ X\({}_{16}\) & \(1.62\times 10^{-1}\) & X\({}_{34}\) & \(1.66\times 10^{-3}\) & X\({}_{52}\) & \(1.68\times 10^{-2}\) \\ X\({}_{17}\) & \(3.72\times 10^{-3}\) & X\({}_{35}\) & \(1.80\times 10^{-4}\) & X\({}_{53}\) & \(1.54\times 10^{-2}\) \\ X\({}_{18}\) & \(4.05\times 10^{-3}\) & X\({}_{36}\) & \(1.90\times 10^{-4}\) & X\({}_{64}\) & \(2.93\times 10^{-2}\) \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 5: The adapted probabilities of the REs.  
Regulatory Compliance: Updated UE probabilities (e.g., CE: 6.18 \(\times\) 10\({}^{-2}\) post-update) provide quantifiable metrics to ensure compliance with safety thresholds, avoiding penalties and enhancing public trust.  
These capabilities transform traditional reactive maintenance into a proactive, data-driven strategy, reducing downtime and operational risks.