# Traffic-Predictive Routing Strategy for Satellite Networks
## 6 Simulation Analysis
### Simulation Scenario
#### 6.2.1 Scenario 1: Different Packet Forwarding Rates  
(1) Packet delivery rate  
When the node's packet forwarding rate is smaller, the load in the network is lower. This means that the average network throughput is higher, and therefore, the packet delivery rate is higher. As the packet forwarding rate of nodes gradually increases, the network load further increases. When the load approaches the maximum load value that the bandwidth resources in the network can carry, the network throughput begins to decrease, and the packet delivery rate also gradually decreases. At this time, the input and output buffers in the node are gradually filled up, and excess data packets are discarded because they cannot obtain more cache space or because the waiting time is too long. As shown in Figure 6, when the packet forwarding rate continues to increase, the total network load will increase. This affects the performance of the network and makes the packet delivery rate of the network low. The group delivery rate curves of these four strategies must also show a downward trend. G-AODV employs an innovative approach to alleviate this issue. Through a traffic prediction mechanism, G-AODV can forecast the traffic values of satellite nodes for the next moment in advance. This means that nodes with potential heavy load characteristics can proactively notify upstream nodes before reaching congestion, assisting in the selection of new paths. This strategy helps achieve load balancing, effectively enhancing network performance under heavy load conditions. Additionally, traditional protocols like E-AODV, DS-DSR, and NCMDSDV struggle to flexibly handle the forwarding direction of packets after a link is disconnected, resulting in packet stagnation at the broken node and eventual failure to deliver to the destination node. G-AODV, through its routing maintenance mechanism, ensures effective packet forwarding even after a link is disconnected. Compared to E-AODV, DS-DSR, and NCMDSDV, G-AODV demonstrates respective improvements in packet delivery rates by 10%, 12%, and 20%, respectively. This significant enhancement is attributed to the outstanding capabilities of G-AODV. Thus, G-AODV excels in addressing the continuously increasing packet transmission rate while maintaining a high packet delivery rate. (2) Average end-to-end delay  
As shown in Figure 7, as the packet forwarding rate increases to a certain level, the network may become congested. This means that the router starts receiving more packets, causing packets to be queued and waiting to be sent, thus increasing transmission latency. When congestion occurs, average latency increases significantly. Therefore, for these four protocols, the average end-to-end delay shows an upward trend. The G-AODV protocol  
Figure 6: Change curve of packet delivery rate. not only considers the number of hops during the route establishment process, but also considers the load status information of the node. This protocol uses a forwarding control mechanism to prevent excessive data traffic from being directed to heavily loaded nodes, thereby alleviating the problem of increased latency caused by heavy loads. At the same time, the heavily loaded nodes get a certain amount of time to relieve their heavy load status, ensuring the smooth flow of the entire network. Considering the unstable connection of satellite links, the G-AODV protocol adopts a dual repair mechanism in the routing maintenance phase. This mechanism adjusts routing to quickly restore broken paths and avoid communication interruptions. Compared with E-AODV, DS-DSR, and NCMDSDV, the average end-to-end delay of G-AODV has been reduced. (3) Packet loss rate  
As shown in Figure 8, when the packet forwarding rate is low, the network is relatively idle and can effectively process and transmit data packets, so the packet loss rate is low. As the packet forwarding rate increases, the network begins to be congested, resulting in an increasing packet loss rate.