# Seismic Hazard Evaluation and Strain Dynamics in the
## 1 Introduction
The geodetic perspective, a powerful tool for better understanding earthquake potential in seismic hazard analyses, is frequently used to identify high seismic hazard regions by aiding in the determination of stress levels on faults within the strain fields of seismic sources [17; 18; 19; 20; 21; 22; 23; 24; 25; 26]. Seismic hazard analysis is a critical process for evaluating the safety of structures in earthquake-prone areas and mitigating potential damage through the development of seismic-resistant structures. The methods and data used in seismic hazard analysis have been applied by various researchers around the world, depending on the seismic sources and scale of the study in the region, in Finland [27], Mexico [28], the Arabian Peninsula [29], India [30; 31], and Europe [32]. The Anatolian Plate, situated between the Eurasian Plate to the north and the African and Arabian Plates--which are moving approximately toward it from the south--is one of the most active tectonic deformation zones in the Alp-Himalayan belt in terms of seismic activity due to its unique geological setting [33]. As a result of the motion induced by the southern plates, the Anatolian Plate has experienced extensive faulting, and these faults have generated numerous earthquakes of magnitude greater than M \(>\) 7 that have historically caused significant casualties and property damage (1939--Erzincan Mw: 7.9; 1976--Van Mw: 7.5; 1999--Golcuk Mw: 7.8; 2011--Van Mw: 7.2; 2023--Kahramanmaras Mw: 7.6) [34]. Following the collision between the Eurasian and Arabian Plates and the ongoing convergence, four distinct neootectonic regions have developed within the Anatolian Plate: the Eastern Anatolian compressional zone, the Northern Anatolian region, the Central Anatolian plain, and the Western Anatolian extensional zone [35; 36; 37] (Figure 1). The Western Anatolian Extensional System, one of these neootectonic regions, is among the primary seismic source areas within the Anatolian Plate, following the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) and the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ). At an annual deformation rate of 25-30 mm, the Western Anatolian host-graben system--comprising the Edremit, Bakracy, Kutahya, Simav, Gediz, Kucuk Menderes, Buyuk Menderes, and Gokova grabens--is among the fastest deforming continental regions globally; within this system, the Simav Fault Zone (SFZ), a crucial tectonic structure located on the northeastern margin of the Aegean extensional province, is predominantly characterized by normal faulting [38; 39; 40; 41]. The Simav Fault Zone (SFZ), approximately 205 km in length, is one of the most significant source zones in Western Anatolia due to its length and segmental structure. Also, it has the potential to generate destructive earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 6.7 to 7.1 Mw [42; 43]. The energy released by earthquakes of this magnitude (Mw \(>\) 6), which could generate surface rupture, is 11.2 to 44.7 times greater [44]. This increased risk, combined with the presence of approximately 4 million people within a 100 km radius, raises the potential for significant loss of life and property. Furthermore, due to its role in the country's socio-economic environment, conducting a seismic hazard analysis for this region is a crucial need. The SFZ and its surrounding region exhibit significant seismic activity, which profoundly affects the area's tectonics and geodynamics, leading to broad environmental and social consequences. The ongoing seismic activity and earthquake hazard in the Simav Fault Zone (SFZ) and its surrounding region pose a threat to the local population as well  
Figure 1: A tectonic map and GNSS velocities of the Anatolian, Arabian, and African plates providing a broad view of the study area (The area in the black box indicates SFZ, red lines represent active faults, black lines indicate major tectonic structures, and black arrows show GNSS velocities.). Abbreviations: WAEP—Western Anatolia Extensional Province, NAF—North Anatolian Fault Zone, EAFZ—East Anatolian Fault Zone, BZSZ—Bitis-Zagros Sutture Zone.