# Identification of Risk Factors for Bus Operation Based on Bayesian Network
## 4 Discussion
### Sensitivity Analysis  
Sensitivity analysis is a critical component of uncertainty risk management decision analysis. It aims to demonstrate the extent of the impact of changes in sensitive factors on target nodes in the project. Target nodes may change significantly, even when certain factors only change slightly. The sensitivity analysis function provides a convenient tool in Netica software. It can be used to analyze factors that have a significant impact on the bus operation's spatial risk. It can help to evaluate the sensitivity between each factor and the alert status of bus operation spatial risk. In traffic safety management, it is possible to quickly identify the factors that have a significant impact on risk and adopt a focused monitoring approach based on the sensitivity coefficients of various factors. In addition, it is possible to eliminate factors with low sensitivity and reduce the complexity of the system. Table 7 lists the obtained data.  
Mutual information can be used to determine whether two variables are related and the strength of that relationship. The larger the value, the greater the sensitivity. The sensitivity of changes in one variable to another is represented as a percentage. The variance value between two nodes is represented by variance credibility. Table 7 indicates that the number of intersections, bus stops, lanes, isolation measures, speed, and traffic volume significantly affect the bus operation spatial risk. It indicates that the bus operation spatial risk is affected more by a small change in the probability of these factors. It is consistent with the result of backward reasoning. The speed of buses during operation has the greatest influence on the spatial risk of bus operation. Therefore, in the process of road construction or renovation, key considerations should be given to road isolation measures, the number of intersections, the number of bus stops, and the number of lanes. Bus companies should closely monitor the speed of bus vehicles. It can balance traffic flow and improve road conditions by adjusting speed limits, lane arrangements, and intersection configurations.  
Public transport is of great significance in many aspects, such as protecting the environment, supporting economic development, and promoting social equity. Therefore, bus safety is crucial. Through BN inference, we found that the bus operation spatial risk is sensitive to speed, isolation measures, traffic flow, and number of intersections, bus stops, and lanes. Therefore, transit authorities need to focus on the reasonable form of isolation measures and the number of intersections, bus stops, and lanes when planning traffic. Bus companies need to emphasize speed limits while driving during employee training. Understanding risk factors can drive the development and improvement of relevant policies and regulations, such as setting stricter safety standards. By analyzing key risk factors, public transport managers can rely on data to make more scientific decisions. In addition, promotional and educational activities can be targeted to convey to passengers and drivers how to avoid and respond to specific risks.