# Estimating the Human Error Probability during Lifeboat Drills
## 1 Introduction
### Previous Research  
However, despite the extreme importance of studies dealing with lifeboat safety, their number is scarce. In [11], the authors tried to find the root cause that triggers lifeboat accidents during regular drills onboard ships. They concluded that the most significant root causes are related to human error, such as crew limitations, safety awareness, lack of familiarisation, and poor maintenance. They pointed out that regular conduct of safety drills and proper maintenance onboard can reduce the fear and tension of the crew and thus fulfil the original purpose of the lifeboat, saving human lives in case of the necessity to abandon the ship. Several studies stated that equipment failures were the most common cause of lifeboat drill accidents. This happens mostly due to poor maintenance or unprofessional handling of the related equipment. In [12], the authors analysed 12 lifeboat accidents using the fuzzy Delphi method. They concluded that human errors, equipment unsuitability, lack of knowledge, and language barriers due to crew members' various nationalities are the most important causes of lifeboat accidents. Many studies have found that human error has become a major trigger for maritime accidents in recent years. For example, [PERSON] and [PERSON], in [13], conducted a detailed literature review of maritime accidents. Their research included 572 articles published in 125 various journals from 1965 to 2014. They concluded that the main triggering factor for maritime accidents changed from ship architecture to human error over the years. Since the hook-release system on lifeboats is a significant cause of accidents, [PERSON] et al. [14] proposed to incorporate the monitoring of the release system's locked position. If the release hooks are not locked, audible alarms are activated, alerting lifeboat operators to cease operations and await further inspection. Recent studies related to lifeboat accidents focus more on the impact of human factors. In [15], the author tried to quantify human error for all tasks during the abandoning process by combining fuzzy sets into the SLIM methodology. The paper focuses on the abandoning process only, which does not include lifeboat recovery. [PERSON] et al., in [16], tried to quantify human error during man-overboard (MOB) drills by a hybrid approach. The authors used Standardised Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability (SPAR-H) with a fuzzy multiple attributive group decision method. Their results indicated that recovery, manoeuvring, and rescue activity were the tasks with the highest probability of human error. Although the research was conducted on rescue boat drills, it can be related to lifeboat drills. The authors of [17] proposed a new method for hazard identification and ranking and quantifying risks associated with the evacuation process from passenger ships. Their findings show that evacuation decisions (made by the captain) and operation of life-saving appliances (LSAs) are the main risks affecting the safety of the evacuation procedure. From the literature review, it can be concluded that the human factor plays a significant role in lifeboat accidents and, therefore, needs additional research to minimise its effect and improve lifeboat drill safety. This study focused on the comprehensive safety of lifeboat drills onboard ships (dealing with gravity lifeboat davits and not free-fall lifeboats) and included all stages of the drill. Because, in previous studies, the human factor was recognised as the most significant cause of lifeboat accidents, the objective of this study is to determine the tasks during lifeboat drills with the highest probability of human error during execution and the factors that influence the incidence of human error. In addition, suggestions to reduce human error probability during lifeboat drills will be given after a detailed analysis of the study's findings. This paper consists of five sections. Section 1 is the Introduction, and Section 2 includes a description of the methodology.