## 4 Results and Discussion
### Supply-Side Analysis
#### 4.2.3 Supply-Side Scenario Analysis
In 2035, hydro and solar will collectively account for 65.03% of total power generation. The costly investment in this strict scenario makes the LCOE higher than the baseline (See Table 8). The electricity  
Figure 15: Comparison between the renewable, no coal scenario, and baseline scenarios. supply mix under the 50% emission target is shown in Figure 16. The total CO\({}_{2}\) emission rises from 1693.7 in 2019 to 10,444.4 kilotons in 2035 for the baseline scenario, representing an average of 545 kt yearly with increasing economic growth. The emission reduction target scenarios demonstrate a tradeoff between efficient energy resources and utilizing energy supply resources that improve environmental quality. However, the country's ability to sustain economic growth with more energy use can still be met by increasing the renewable share in the energy mix. Figure 16 shows the generation mix of the 50% emission target scenario. NC scenario is an expensive scenario. A future governmental proposal on the NC scenario may not be ideal for comparing the costs associated with operating and maintaining renewable technologies. Additionally, even if the oil is kept constant, the occurrence of a dry year will likely result in the need for more oil to be imported. Else, more solar should be explored as a tangible option. The diversification of the energy mix is essential in Zambia. Integration of renewable energy sources has high potential in Zambia because of the high \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Scenario**} & **Annual Emissions** & **LCOE 1** & **RE Share** \\  & **Emissions [kt]** & **[Cents/kWh]** & **[\%] * \\ \hline Baseline (BL) & 10,444.4 & 7.68 & 45.40 \\ Renewable Scenario (RE) & 5059.8 & 8.02 & 73.80 \\ No Coal (NC) & 9357.8 & 7.82 & 50.84 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}  
* RE includes solar, wind, and hydro.  
\end{table} 
Table 7: Summary of analysis of scenarios on the supply side in 2035. Figure 16: Generation mix and resulting CO\({}_{2}\) emissions for 50% reduction of emissions scenario. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Scenario**} & \multirow{2}{*}{**Sub-Scenario**} & **Annual Emissions** & **LCOE 1** & **RE Share [\%] 2** \\  & & **[kt]** & **[Cents/kWh]** & **RE Share [\%] 2** \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{Emission Targets} & 10\% & 9400 & 7.98 & 51.20 \\  & 20\% & 8355.6 & 8.11 & 54.32 \\ \cline{1-1}  & 30\% & 7311.1 & 8.20 & 57.60 \\ \cline{1-1}  & 40\% & 6266.7 & 8.28 & 61.30 \\ \cline{1-1}  & 50\% & 5222.2 & 8.36 & 65.03 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}  
* Levelized cost of electricity. 2 RE includes solar, wind, and hydro.  
\end{table} 
Table 8: Sensitivity analysis of emission reduction targets in 2035.  
intensity of sunshine and good wind, even though it is a country with an increased supply of water bodies in Africa [8]. Hydro potential continues to grow as new power plants are being completed. Hydro may be fully exploited if enough investment and the effects of climate change are improved. The power sector can efficiently exploit the outstanding renewable energy potential to boost generation.