## 6 Conclusions  
Some of the important findings of the study are as follows:  
* The findings from the finite element analysis emphasise the need to evaluate the structural responses of moraine sediment dams to changing water levels. The study reveals that, in the absence of permafrost thawing effects, the AB dam currently exhibits lower displacement values, indicating a strong design that can withstand significant water level fluctuations. In contrast, dams CD and EF may necessitate additional stability enhancements to ensure their performance under similar conditions.
* The upstream slope of the CD and EF dam sections exhibits significant deformation, signalling a potential failure that could result in debris collapsing into the lake. This collapse may elevate the water table, leading to an overflow scenario for the AB section, ultimately threatening its stability and increasing the risk of downstream flooding.
* The stability of the AB section of the downstream natural dam surrounding Gurudongmar Lake faces significant risks from a potential 10-metre rise in water levels and increased pore pressure resulting from permafrost melting. This situation underscores the urgent need for monitoring and risk mitigation strategies in light of climate change. As temperatures rise and permafrost thaws, future conditions could further compromise the stability of the downstream slope of the AB dam. Under steady-state seepage conditions, the factor of safety is likely to decrease, heightening the risk of structural failure.  
Figure 11: (**A**) Numerical model of the cross-section of the AB natural dam section. (**B**) Finite element mesh generated using 15-node triangular elements. (**C**) Phreatic line for the upstream water level up to the crest of the dam for analysis. (**D**) Seepage flow through the body of the natural dam AB section. (**E**) Ground Water Head under steady seepage through the body of the dam. (**F**) Displacement contour indicating large deformation of the downstream slope under the prevailing condition of a rise in water level in the lake and permafrost melting.  
* To enhance safety and reduce risks associated with glacial lake outburst floods, it is recommended to install an early warning system and restrict tourism activities on the downstream side of the AB section. Additionally, implementing geotechnical measures to improve the stability of the downstream slope of the AB section will be crucial for future protection.  
Conceptualization, writing & review A.K.M.; Software, A.S.; Resources, R.K.R. and N.W.; Writing--review & editing, K.D. and S.S. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.  
This research was funded by Department of Science & Technology, grant number DST/CCP/CoE/186/2019(G), dated: 3 March 2019.  
Not applicable.  
The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.  
The authors thank and acknowledge the Climate Change Programme, Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India, for financially supporting (DST/CCP/CoE/186/2019(G), dated: 3 March 2019) the establishment of \"DST's Centre of Excellence on Water Resources, Cryosphere and Climate Change Studies\" at the Department of Geology, Sikkim University (PI--[PERSON]). This research is part of the above-mentioned research project.  
The authors declare no conflict of interest.