# Electricity Usage Efficiency and Electricity Demand Modeling in the Case of Germany and the UK
## 4 Model Output
At the same time, an increase in GDP and industrial production by 1% caused the electricity consumption to go up by approximately 0.6%, meaning that with a 2% yearly increase in GDP and industrial production, the level of electricity consumption would have been approximately maintained. However, the average GDP growth has only been 0.6% in the UK and 1.5% in Germany during the period, while the industrial production index was increasing by 1.4% on average in Germany and dropping by 1.5% in the UK. These values were not enough to maintain the level of power consumption during the years 2005-2012, and this trend continued in 2013 as well. Based on these data, we concluded that (a) the long-term historical trends have reversed and power consumption was not likely to increase substantially during the next decades. An exact power consumption trajectory depends particularly on economic activity where a GDP growth of approximately 1.8% is needed for the level of power consumption to be maintained. This is particularly due to the increased efficiency of electricity usage in Europe. The factor which can cause power consumption to go up significantly again is the possibility of increasing usage of electricity in other energy-intensive sectors (e.g., automobile industry) due to the \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline  & \(Y\) & \(X_{1}\) & \(X_{2}\) & \(X_{3}\) & \(X_{4}\) & \(X_{5}\) & \(X_{6}\) \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Month-Year**} & \multirow{2}{*}{**Demand**} & \multirow{2}{*}{**Temperature**} & **Temp. over** & **Industrial** & \multirow{2}{*}{**Days**} & \multirow{2}{*}{**GDP**} & \multirow{2}{*}{**Efficiency**} \\  & & & **17 °C** & **Output** & & & & \\ \hline August-2011 & 41,915 & 18.3 & 1.3 & 102.7 & 31 & 108.50 & 78.92712644 \\ \(\vdots\) & \(\vdots\) & \(\vdots\) & \(\vdots\) & \(\vdots\) & \(\vdots\) & \(\vdots\) & \(\vdots\) \\ Jane-2012 & 49,492 & 2.65 & 0 & 100.3 & 31 & 109.20 & 77.75380056 \\ February-2012 & 50,031 & \(-\)2.55 & 0 & 105.5 & 29 & 109.20 & 77.52123685 \\ \(\vdots\) & \(\vdots\) & \(\vdots\) & \(\vdots\) & \(\vdots\) & \(\vdots\) & \(\vdots\) & \(\vdots\) \\ October-2013 & 44,571 & 9.73125 & 0 & 111 & 31 & 109.746 & 73.01330926 \\ November-2013 & 45,651 & 6.13125 & 0 & 111.8 & 30 & 109.746 & 72.79492448 \\ December-2013 & 44,871 & 1.975 & 0 & 94.6 & 31 & 109.746 & 72.5771929 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 1: _Cont._ \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c} \hline \hline
**Variable in Model** & \(p\)**-Value** \\ \hline Monthly average temperature & \(2.1\times 10^{-29}\) \\ Temperature over 17 °C & \(1.35\times 10^{-5}\) \\ Monthly industrial production & 0.043171 \\ Days in a month & 0.001391 \\ Yearly GDP & 0.025366 \\ Efficiency & \(3.63\times 10^{-7}\) \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 2: \(p\)-value for the selected variables in the model. lowering costs of renewable power generation and increasing prices of traditional energy sources. This assumption was also the basis for the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change forecast. However, the crucial change is probably not going to happen any time soon for many reasons of which some are stated below:  
* Generation costs are a relatively small part of the final electricity prices;
* Feed-in tariffs for renewable generation are set for 20 years, meaning that technological advances will not lower the final electricity prices immediately;
* With the advance of renewable generation, prices of coal and other energies decrease;
* Whole infrastructures for the new electricity industries would need to be built. Furthermore, it has to be mentioned that with a consumption of 30 kWh/100 miles, 1 million electric cars performing 10,000 miles a year will increase the country's electricity consumption by only 3 TWh, which equates to only about 0.5% of the total consumption in Germany.