## 3 Results
### Simulation Model of Land-Use Change for New Housing Use between 1992 and 2019
#### 3.3.1 Study of the Influence of Variables on Land-Use Changes  
Below, the influence of different variables on land-use changes is studied using the weights of evidence graphs (see Figure 10). The assumption of factor independence was validated with the Cramer test. A complete analysis is made of the weights of evidence in all transitions. Table 3 shows this analysis in detail. Figure 10: Weights of evidence for distance to the historic circulation and distance to the beach. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{p{113.8 pt} p{113.8 pt} p{113.8 pt} p{113.8 pt} p{113.8 pt} p{113.8 pt} p{113.8 pt}} \hline
**Change of Use** & **Beach Distance Variable** & **Historic Circulation Distance Variable** & **Historical Monument (HMO)** & **Historical Area (HCA)** & **Conservation** & **Coastal Edge Section Plan (CES)** \\ \hline HV (1) to NUV (10) & 0 to 24 mts decreases the probability of change; from 24 to 200 ms slightly increases the probability of change; from 200 the probability of change; from 200 the probability of change begins to decrease & 1 it is not associated (there is no evidence that it increases or decreases) & Not protected increases slightly (0.65; protected decreases) & Not associated \\ HE (2) to NUV (10) & 0 to 66 increases the probability of change; from 65 to 594 decreases the probability of change; from 994 increases & 0 to 22 to 47 decreases: from 994 increases & Not associated & Not protected probability of change increases by 7.37, the probability of change decreases by \(-17.35\) & Not associated \\ HE (3) to NUV (10) & 0 to 130 ms decreases the probability of change; from 509 to 559: from there it decreases & 0 to 6 ms decreases the probability; to 56 slightly increase the probability of change change; from 56, it decreases & Not associated & Not associated \\ HE (4) to NUV (10) & 0 to 67 increases the probability of change; from 67 decreases the probability of change & 0 to 49 slightly increase the probability of change; from 67 to 49 the probability of change begins to decrease & 100\% of associated \\ SE (11) to NUV (10) & From 0 to 350, it increases; 350 to 383, it decreases; 383, it increases; 383 to 22, it increases slightly; from 24 to 509 to 559: from there it decreases & From 0 to 50 it increases very slightly; from 50, the probability of change decreases & Not associated (\(-0.13\)) & Not associated \\ NUE (12) & to & Up to 381, the probability of change increases; from 381 to 541, it decreases; from 541, the probability increases & It is not associated until 49; from there the probability begins to increase & Not associated (14.82), protected decreases (\(-0.21\)) & Not associated \\ \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 3: Probability of change as a function of the different variables calculated with the weights of evidence method from the images and data presented in Figure 10.  
Proximity to the beach and regulations. The results indicate that, within a distance range from 88 to 110 m, the proximity to the beach promotes a change from HV to NUV. When comparing the land-use plans from 1992 to 2019, it is observed that HV located in this range (northern sector of the study area, Figure 5) effectively changes in a lot-by-lot process to NUV. On the other hand, the proximity of the beach does not increase the probability of change in the range from 10 m to 88 m. This is confirmed by observing that the changes that HV undergoes in that distance range are effectively not to NUV but to a New Mixed Use (19) of a gastronomic commercial type. The weights of evidence map identifies the areas that have changed from HV to NUV regarding the beach (Figure 11). Finally, the results indicate that for a range between 300 and 600 m variations in the distance to the beach do not affect the probability of change from HEAI (3) to NUV (10). As for the change from HP to NUV, this seems driven by two variables: the variable proximity to the beach and within the urban renewal zone (CES), and it is also clearly inhibited by the Historical Monuments protection instrument.