# A Credit Rating Model in a Fuzzy Inference System Environment
## 3 Research Methodology  
Because research on export credit agencies is rather novel, there is plenty of scope for study. In this study, we attempt to introduce a new method for credit rating agencies based on the Moody method. It is customized for the Export Guarantee Fund of Iran (EGFI). The research questions are as follows:  
1. Which variables are suitable for the EGFI as well as for other credit rating agencies? 2. How does the uncertain environment affect these variables? In order to determine the variables for determining credit ratings, we introduced Moody's model and experts' opinions on these variables. These variables are interest coverage ratio, current ratio, quick ratio, ownership structure, country risk and so on. After extracting these variables, we evaluated them using the Delphi method as follows:  
1. These variables were sent to the experts of the EGFI to determine which ones were suitable for credit rating agencies. 2. Within the Delphi method, a 5-point Likert scale was used. 3. When the average of the experts' opinions was less than 4, this variable was eliminated. Tables 1 and 2 show the computation of variables and their extractions. The results show that, among 23 variables, only 19 should be used for ranking companies. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**VARIABLES** & **DM1** & **DM2** & **DM3** & **DM4** & **DM5** & **DM6** & **DM7** & **DM8** & **DM9** \\ \hline
**DEBT-TO-EQUITY RATIO** & 4 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 5 & 4 \\ DEBT RATIO TO EBITDA & 5 & 5 & 5 & 4 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 5 & 4 \\
**DSCR** & 5 & 4 & 4 & 5 & 5 & 5 & 5 & 4 & 3 \\ INTEREST COVERAGE RATIO & 3 & 4 & 5 & 5 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 5 \\
**CASH FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES** & 5 & 5 & 5 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 3 & 5 & 4 \\
**RATIO TO TOTAL SALES** & 4 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 3 \\
**ROE** & 4 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\
**OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN** & 5 & 5 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\ CURRENT RATIO & 4 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 3 & 4 \\
**QUICK RATIO** & 5 & 5 & 5 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 3 \\
**ASSET TURNOVER** & 4 & 4 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 3 \\
**MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE** & 4 & 4 & 4 & 5 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 3 & 5 \\
**SUCCESS PLANNING** & 4 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 3 & 3 & 2 & 4 \\
**STATREICE PLANNING** & 3 & 3 & 3 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 3 & 4 & 2 \\
**CORporate GOVERANCE** & 4 & 4 & 4 & 5 & 5 & 5 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\
**OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE** & 3 & 5 & 4 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 3 \\
**DIVERSIFICATION OF INCOME** & 4 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 3 & 3 & 5 \\
**PAYMENT RECORDS** & 5 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 3 & 4 \\
**COMPANY AUDITORS** & 3 & 3 & 3 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 3 & 4 \\
**QUALITY AND TRANSPAENCY OF** & 3 & 4 & 4 & 5 & 5 & 5 & 5 & 3 & 4 \\
**REPORTING** & & & & & & & & & \\
**COMPETITIVENESS** & 4 & 5 & 5 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\
**POSITION IN THE INDUSTRY/MARKET** & 3 & 4 & 5 & 5 & 5 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 4 \\
**RISK OF INDUSTRY** & 3 & 3 & 3 & 4 & 3 & 4 & 2 & 3 & 4 \\
**GROUPS OF COUNTRY RISK** & 4 & 5 & 5 & 5 & 5 & 4 & 4 & 3 & 4 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 1: Preferences of experts (decision makers (DM)) regarding input variables. DEBT-TO-EQUITY RATIO (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization(EBITDA)), Debt-Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR), Return On Equity (ROE), Definitions of these input variables are provided in Table 3.