## 4 Results
### Forecasting the Share of Airline Business Models at Pula Airport
#### 4.2.2 Forecasts of the Shares of Airline Business Models at Pula Airport  
Based on the collected data and analysis of the shares of airline business models at Pula Airport, forecasts of the shares of airline business models for the period 2020-2026 have been made, as shown in Table 6. Python and MS Excel forecasting tools (which contain algorithms for moving average, exponential smoothing, and linear regression methods) were used to create forecasts of the shares of airline business models at Pula Airport. Figure 14 shows graphically the forecasted values (with their confidence intervals--upper/lower limit marked with dashed lines) of the share of traditional airlines (FSC) at Pula Airport for the period 2020-2026. The evaluation criteria RMSE is 1.76, and SMAPE is 0.08 (or 8%), which indicates very good fitness of the model. The forecast shows a decline in the share of traditional air carriers at Pula Airport. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Year**} & \multirow{2}{*}{**Lower**} & \multirow{2}{*}{ \begin{tabular}{c} **Share of** \\ **FSC—** \\ **Forecast (\%)** \\ \end{tabular}  } & \multirow{2}{*}{ \begin{tabular}{c} **Upper** \\ **Limit** \\ \end{tabular}  } & \multirow{2}{*}{ \begin{tabular}{c} **Lower** \\ **Limit** \\ \end{tabular}  } & \multirow{2}{*}{ \begin{tabular}{c} **Upper** \\ **LCC—** \\ **Forecast (\%)** \\ \end{tabular}  } & \multirow{2}{*}{ \begin{tabular}{c} **Lower** \\ **Limit** \\ \end{tabular}  } & \multirow{2}{*}{ \begin{tabular}{c} **Upper** \\ **Limit** \\ \end{tabular}  } & \multirow{2}{*}{ \begin{tabular}{c} **Lower** \\ **CC—** \\ **Forecast (\%)** \\ \end{tabular}  } & \multirow{2}{*}{ \begin{tabular}{c} **Upper** \\ **Limit** \\ \end{tabular}  } & \multirow{2}{*}{ \begin{tabular}{c} **Lower** \\ **Limit** \\ \end{tabular}  } & \multirow{2}{*}{\ \begin{tabular}{c} **Lower** \\ **Limit** \\ \end{tabular}  } & \multirow{2}{*}{ \begin{tabular}{c} **Upper** \\ **Limit** \\ \end{tabular}  } \\  & & & & & & & & & & & & & & \\ \hline
2020 & 15 & 17 & 25 & 55 & 61 & 68 & 13 & 21 & 28 & 0.65 & 1 & 1.75 \\
2021 & 13 & 18 & 23 & 55 & 61 & 68 & 12 & 20 & 27 & 0.67 & 1 & 1.77 \\
2022 & 10 & 14 & 19 & 58 & 65 & 71 &Figure 15 shows graphically the forecasted values (with their confidence intervals--upper/ lower limit marked with dashed lines) of the share of LCCs at Pula Airport for the period 2020-2026. The evaluation criteria RMSE is 1.92, and SMAPE is 0.03 (or 3%), which indicates very good fitness of the model. The forecast shows a convincing increase in the share of LCCs at Pula Airport. Figure 16 shows graphically the forecasted values (with their confidence intervals--upper/ lower limit marked with dashed lines) of the share of charter carriers (CC) at Pula Airport for the period 2020-2026. The evaluation criteria RMSE is 2.43, and SMAPE is 0.10 (or 10%),  
Figure 14: Forecast of the share of the traditional carriers (FSC) at Pula Airport. Figure 15: Forecast of the share of the LCCs at Pula Airport. which indicates good fitness of the model. The forecast shows a decline in the share of charter carriers at Pula Airport. Figure 17 shows graphically the forecasted values (with their confidence intervals--upper/ lower limit marked with dashed lines) of the share of other airline business models at Pula Airport for the period 2020-2026. The evaluation criteria RMSE is 0.46, and SMAPE is 0.25 (or 25%), which indicates acceptable fitness of the model. The forecast shows an equal share of other airline business models at Pula Airport. Figure 16: Forecast of the share of the charter carriers (CC) at Pula Airport. Figure 17: Forecast of the share of the other airline business models at Pula Airport. Figure 18 shows all forecasts of the shares of airline business models with the corresponding trends at Pula Airport for the period 2020-2026, where the dominance of LCCs at Pula Airport and a progressive growth in share, in the future period, can be observed.