## 4 Results
### T0 Predictors of Outcome at T1 (Table 1)  
DA at 12 months as a predictor of developmental level (GMDS score) at 24 months: The model demonstrated a significant overall fit, F(1,32) = 5.87, \(p\) = 0.021. The results indicated that disengagement at 12 months significantly predicted developmental level at 24 months (\(\beta=-0.399\), \(p\) = 0.021).  
DA at 12 months as a predictor of joint attention (item b13-ADOS-2 of the Toddler Module) at 24 months: The model demonstrated a significant overall fit, F(1,28) = 5.037, \(p\) = 0.033. It was found that disengagement at 12 months significantly predicted JA abilities at 24 months (\(\beta\) = 0.397, \(p\) = 0.033).  
DA at 12 months as a predictor of social affect (SA) score (Ados-2 Toddler Module) at 24 months: The model demonstrated a significant overall fit, F(1,32) = 4.187, \(p\) = 0.049. It was found that disengagement at 12 months significantly predicted the SA score at 24 months (\(\beta\) = 0.345, \(p\) = 0.049).  
DA at 12 months as a predictor of ADOS-2 total score at 24 months: The model demonstrated a significant overall fit, F(1,32) = 4.237, \(p\) = 0.048. The results revealed that disengagement at 12 months significantly predicted the ADOS-2 total score at 24 months (\(\beta\) = 0.347, \(p\) = 0.048).  
Alternating gaze of initiation of joint attention (AG-JJA) at 12 months as a predictor of developmental level (GMDS score) at 24 months: The model demonstrated a significant overall fit, F(1,31) = 5.525, \(p\) = 0.026. AG-JJA at 12 months significantly predicted the GMDS score at 24 months (\(\beta\) = 0.394, \(p\) = 0.026).  
Alternating gaze of initiation of joint attention (AG-JJA) at 12 months as a predictor of outcome (ASD/NO-ASD) at 24 months: The model was statistically significant (\(\chi 2\)[1] = 10.98, \(p\) = 0.001), explaining between 27.6% (Cox and Snell R Square) and 40.3% (Nagelkerke R Square) of the variance in diagnostic outcome and correctly classifying 73.5% of cases.  
In the model, AG-JJA at 12 months was significant (B = \(-\)0.746, Wald = 5.532, \(p\) = 0.019, 95% CI [0.37, 0.61]), indicating a trend where increasing AG-JJA is associated with lower odds of the ASD diagnostic outcome.  
Disengagement latency (DA) at 12 months as a predictor of outcome (ASD/NO-ASD) at 24 months: The model was statistically significant (\(\chi 2\)[1] = 7.602, \(p\) = 0.006), explaining between 19.5% (Cox and Snell R Square) and 28% (Nagelkerke R Square) of the variance in diagnostic outcome and correctly classifying 74.3% of cases.  
Figure 4: Correlation between disengagement latency and FDP-IJA. Abbreviations: ms, milliseconds; FDP-RJA, following distal pointing-responding to joint attention.  
In the model, DA at 12 months was significant (B = 1.003, Wald = 5.878, \(p\) = 0.015, 95% CI [2.72, 2.73]), indicating a trend where increasing DA latency is associated with higher odds of the ASD diagnostic outcome.  
These findings indicate that both disengagement latency and alternating gaze are important factors in determining the likelihood of determining the diagnostic outcome for ASD, with disengagement latency being a more influential predictor than alternating gaze.  
See Appendix A, Table A2 for descriptive statistics.