# Spectrum Demand Forecasting for IoT Services
## 5 Study Case Implementation: Colombia
### Market Study: Market Size and Penetration  
To find the market size and IoT penetration, we performed a meticulous search among government entities, to obtain the volumes of devices or objects throughout a 10-year period and the number of actual sales. IoT penetration statistics were considered from two scenarios: an optimistic one from [42] and a pessimistic one from [41]. Both forecasts are summarized in Figure 2, right hand side. To cope with this increase in spectrum use, new networks should increase their capacities in two manners. (i) Increasing their link spectral efficiency, that according to [50], the IMT-2020 minimum requirement for average spectral efficiency is expected to grow up to 9 bits/s/Hz with the deployment of 5G  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l l l l l} \hline \hline
**Scenario** & **Transport Link** & **Technologies** & **Services** & **Main Link** \\ \hline Scn \# 1 & Cellular minority & 802.15.6, Cellulars & Home healthcare & UL/DL \\  & & & Home hospitalization & UL/DL \\ \hline Scn \# 2 & Cable & Wi-Fi, ZB, BLE & Home Automation & UL/DL \\ \hline Scn \# 3 & Cable & 802.11 ad, 802.15.3c & Gbit multimedia & DL \\ \hline Scn \# 4 & Cellular minority & 802.15.6, Cellulars & Smart beds & UL/DL \\  & & Vital signs monitoring & UL \\ \hline Scn \# 5 & Cellular minority & Wi-Fi, Cellulars & Smart beds & UL/DL \\  & & Vital signs monitoring & UL \\ \hline Scn \# 6 & Partially cellular & RFID, Cellulars & Machinery tracking & UL \\  & & Inventory & UL \\ \hline Scn \# 7 & Partially cellular & LPWAN, Cellulars & Machinery tracking & UL \\  & & Inventory & UL \\ \hline Scn \# 8 & Mainly cellular & RFID, Cellulars & Urban tolls & UL \\  & & Traffic lights & UL \\ \hline Scn \# 9 & Partially cellular & C-V2X, 802.11p, Cellulars & Traffic cameras and sensors & UL \\  & & & Smart cars & UL/DL \\  & & & Traffic lights & UL \\ \hline Scn \# 10 & Cable & 802.11 ad, 802.15.3c & Security cameras & UL \\  & & Traffic cameras and sensors & UL \\ \hline Scn \# 11 & Mainly cellular & RFID, Cellulars & Freight tracking & UL \\  & & Fleet tracking & UL \\ \hline Scn \# 12 & Mainly cellular & C-V2X, 802.11p, Cellulars & Fleet tracking & UL \\  & & Smart cars & UL/DL \\ \hline Scn \# 13 & Partially cellular & LPWAN, Cellulars & Smart metering & UL \\  & & Lightning & UL \\  & & Air/water monitoring & UL \\  & & Ambulance network & UL \\  & & Street parking & UL \\ \hline Scn \# 14 & Partially cellular & LPWAN, Cellulars & Harvesting logistics & UL \\  & & Employee tracking & UL \\  & & Smart Greenhouse & UL \\  & & Environmental sensors & UL \\  & & Cattle tracking & UL \\  & & Air/water monitoring & UL \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 1: A list of services, possible carrier technologies, transport link and the main direction of their access link.  
cellular networks. In Colombia, we assume this increase might take place in the following 10 years as can be observed in Figure 2, left-hand side. (ii) For these spectral efficiencies to materialize, the second aspect needed is the increase in teledensity as specified in [51]. Therefore, we also assume a linear teledensity increase up to a \(116x\) factor in the next 10 years, going from 35 ha/cell to 0.3 ha/cell in the urban indoor case. The same factor is applied to suburban and rural scenarios.