## 5 Results and Discussions
### Climatic Factor and Pernafrost Thawing
In the most recent decade (2014-2023), the minimum temperature rose further to \(-\)8.02 \({}^{\circ}\)C (Table 4). Similarly, the maximum temperature increased from \(-\)1.75 \({}^{\circ}\)C in the first decade to \(-\)1.47 \({}^{\circ}\)C in the second decade, reaching \(-\)1.1 \({}^{\circ}\)C in the most recent decade (Table 4). This upward trend in both minimum and  
Figure 8: Plot of the (**A**) annual average of maximum daily temperature and trend, (**B**) annual average of minimum daily temperature, (**C**) yearly total precipitation, and (**D**) annual maximum daily precipitation for the period of 1994 to 2023.  
maximum temperatures indicates a gradual warming of the region. The warming trend and changing precipitation patterns underscore the need for adaptive management strategies to address the potential impacts on high-altitude environments like Gurudongmar Lake. Research indicates that warming has increased the depth of the active layer in mountain permafrost [45] and shifted the lower limit of permafrost to higher elevations [46]. These changes affect soil moisture, ground thermal regimes, cryo-pedogenic processes, and mass movement dynamics [47]. Consequently, the potential for widespread mass wasting activities and weakened mountain slopes is anticipated to increase due to ongoing climatic changes [48]. The area of interest for this study, situated above 5000 m near Gurudongmar Lake, shows evidence of permafrost (Figure 9C). Recent changes in temperature and precipitation in this high-altitude, climate-sensitive region are likely to increase the seasonal temperature differential between summer and winter (Figure 9A,B). Furthermore, significant changes due to permafrost thaw and related mass wasting processes have been observed at lower elevations, providing context for the potential impacts at higher altitudes (Figure 9E). Between the period of 2010 and 2022 (Figure 9F,G), the Gurudongmar area has undergone significant glacier retreat and permafrost thawing. These factors underscore the need for comprehensive assessments of permafrost dynamics and moraine dam stability in the context of ongoing climate change. In Sikkim, permafrost is predominantly found above altitudes of 5000 m [26]. As climate change progresses, the dynamics of permafrost are shifting, with significant implications for slope stability and the integrity of natural dams. Specifically, the active layer of permafrost is undergoing changes that are contributing to an increase in shallow slope movements [49; 50]. In contrast, deeper permafrost warming is likely to result in more substantial bedrock failures [51]. When such movements occur near infrastructure or close to glacial lakes, they can pose considerable risks to downstream areas. Climate change is expected to increase the number of high-elevation lakes formed by natural dams [52]. These lakes are potentially at risk from the surrounding unstable slopes, a concern that has been highlighted at a regional scale [53]. The stability of moraine dams, particularly those affected by thawing permafrost, is therefore uncertain. The potential weakening and disintegration of these natural dams are pressing concerns [44]. Research emphasises that the stability of these dams, considering the potential impacts of thawing permafrost and ice core changes, remains an important issue. The formation of new lakes and water accumulation in glaciated regions of Sikkim, including the area near Gurudongmar Lake, have become apparent in recent decades. A notable new lake growth has been observed in the Gurudongmar Lake complex behind Feeder Lake 1 during this period (Figure 9F,G). While mass movements into lakes are a primary cause of GLOFs, they do not always result in the breaching of the lake [54; 55]. In Sikkim, as climate change progresses, it poses substantial risks to slope stability and the integrity of natural dams. For instance, the recent GLOF event at South Lhonak Lake in Sikkim saw a section of the dam slide into the lake, causing a large volume of water to overtop the dam.