# A New Ground-Motion Prediction Model for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes in Turkiye
## 1 Introduction  
Turkiye is located in one of the most active seismic regions in the world. Therefore, the country has been the scene of many destructive earthquakes throughout history due to three major neotectonic structures [1]: the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), the East AnatolianFault (EAF), and the Aegean Graben Systems. Some of these earthquakes (1939 Erzincan, 1999 Kocaeli and Duzce, 2011 Van, 2020 Elazig, 2023 Kahramanmaras) are among the most devastating ever recorded and caused significant loss of life in the earthquake area. These events also show the extent of the seismic activity and seismic hazards of the Anatolian plate. Seismic hazards must be thoroughly determined for safe engineering structural design and urban development plans. Utilizing reliable ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) plays an important role in determining seismic hazards. GMPMs are fundamental tools used in various engineering applications such as seismic hazard maps, seismic risk assessments, and microzonation studies for seismically active regions or countries. Typically, predictions are made for the peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and 5% damped pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA). The GMPMs are developed as a function of observed strong-motion amplitudes against a set of variables, such as event magnitude, source-to-site distance, style-of-faulting, and local site conditions. Over the past half-century, numerous predictive models have been developed for different regions and countries from around the world, taking into account up-to-date data, various factors, and new techniques. According to the report by [PERSON] (2024) [2], between 1964 and 2023, 505 different models were proposed for PGA, 155 for PGV, and 324 for 5% damped PSA. GMPMs are derived by combining observed data from different countries, as well as by adapting datasets specific to a particular region or country. Variations in the quantity and quality of the input data used in prediction models worldwide have led to the development of different models. Some researchers have developed GMPMs (ground-motion prediction models) using only country-based (local) datasets [3; 4; 5; 6; 7; 8; 9], while others have used data obtained from specific regions [10; 11; 12; 13]. A third group has presented models using a combination of global-scale data [14; 15; 16; 17; 18; 19]. Local and regional model examples aim to predict site-specific source, path, and site effects on strong-motion intensity values without causing data contamination from different regions. Researchers who prefer to use global-scale data are of the opinion that data from countries with similar tectonic regime characteristics will also exhibit similar characteristics. Additionally, while most GMPM developers focus on shallow crustal earthquakes, some propose models for deep-focus subduction earthquakes. This is because subduction events exhibit different characteristics to shallow crustal earthquakes, driven by factors such as the earthquake's source, depth, wave propagation, frequency characteristics, and energy release. Since the model proposed in this study is specific to Turkiye, some previously developed models that are specific to Turkiye are briefly reviewed here. The estimation parameters of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) proposed for Turkiye generally use different criteria for the magnitude scale, source-to-site distance, and site effect categorization. [PERSON] and [PERSON] [3] developed model for PGA and PSA with a total of 100 strong-motion records of 47 events, and according to the fault types of normal slip (\(NS\)) (12 events, 14 records), strike slip (\(SS\)) (33 events, 81 records), and reverse slip (\(RS\)) (2 events, 5 records), magnitude \(M_{W}\geq 4.0\), source-site distance \(R_{cl}<100\) km, and associated with site class V\({}_{S}\). [PERSON] et al.