## 1 Introduction  
In major coal mine water hazard accidents of China, roof water inrush from driving roadways accounts for a significant proportion and causes severe losses [1, 2, 3, 4]. Based on the author's investigation, statistics, and analysis of major and above-level water inrush accidents in Chinese coal mines from 1977 to 2024, specifically focusing on roof water inrush incidents in development headings, it was found that 84 major and above-level water inrush accidents occurred nationwide during this period, resulting in 1810 fatalities and missing persons; notably, 38 such accidents were attributed to roof water inrush in development headings, causing 856 fatalities and missing persons, accounting for 45.24% of the total major water inrush accidents and 47.29% of the associated casualties, respectively. The average fatality rate per roof water inrush accident was 22.53, slightly exceeding the overall major water inrush average of 21.55 fatalities per accident. Analysis of these 38 roof water inrush accidents revealed that, with respect to geological controls, 33 accidents (86.84%) were non-structurally controlled, while only 5 (13.16%) were structurally controlled; regarding temporal patterns, instantaneous-type inrushes predominated (29 accidents, 76.32%), followed by delayed-type (8 accidents, 21.05%), with intermittent-type being minimal (1 accident, 2.63%). Consequently, roof water inrush accidents in development headings constitute a significant proportion of major water inrush disasters in Chinese coal mines, exhibiting well-defined characteristics concerning both their likelihood of occurrence and the severity of consequences. Affected by structural planes such as joints and fractures, the mechanical structure of the surrounding rock in driving roadways exhibits obvious discontinuous phenomena from macro- to micro-scales, and traditional continuous medium mechanics theories can no longer fully explain the mechanism of fracture evolution. Current methodologies for predicting and evaluating mine water inrush disasters [5; 6; 7], such as vulnerability index approaches based on hydrogeological parameters and empirical water inrush coefficient models, primarily depend on static geological exploration data and experiential formulas for risk zoning and threshold determination. These approaches exhibit pronounced limitations in assessing excavation roadway water inrush risks due to their inability to (i) accurately quantify activation risks of concealed water-bearing structures or critical conditions for water-conducting channel formation under dynamic excavation-induced disturbances, leading to inadequate precision for localized high-risk zones; (ii) dynamically integrate real-time excavation data to update aquiclude evaluations, resulting in prediction outcomes that lag behind advancing workfaces; (iii) achieve sufficient spatial resolution for short-range, high-risk target identification ahead of excavation roadways, given their regional-scale evaluation framework; and (iv) ensure model generalizability, as empirical thresholds derived from specific mining districts frequently cause misjudments or missed alerts when extrapolated to new contexts. Consequently, prevailing methods demonstrate fundamental bottlenecks in addressing the complex, dynamic, and spatially localized nature of water inrush hazards during roadway excavation. While peridynamics demonstrates unique advantages in predicting discontinuous failure of rock masses [8; 9; 10], its application to the evolution of water inrush channels remains unresolved. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a dual-control (geometry damage) water inrush prediction model based on peridynamics theory, aimed at improving the accuracy of water hazard prediction and prevention in coal mine roadway.