# Human Factors as Predictor of Fatalities in Aviation Accidents: A Neural Network Analysis
## 2 State of the Art  
The study of human factors in aviation safety has evolved significantly over the years. Early research was primarily focused on individual errors, often attributing accidents to pilot mistakes. However, a paradigm shift occurred with seminal works such as [PERSON]'s study on human errors, which emphasized a systems approach to understanding the root causes of accidents [8]. One of the early methodologies that gained prominence is Crew Resource Management (CRM). CRM aims to improve communication, leadership, and decision making among flight crews. Studies have shown that CRM training is effective in reducing errors attributable to human factors [9]. Recent advancements in technology have also contributed to the depth of this field. For instance, eye-tracking technology is increasingly being used to study pilot attention and situational awareness. Research in this area has shown that technology such as eye-tracking can provide valuable insights into cognitive processes, thereby aiding in the design of more ergonomic cockpits and effective training programs [10]. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has been instrumental in shaping the regulatory landscape. ICAO's Safety Management System (SMS) [11] has set the global standard for proactive hazard identification and risk management. The ICAO's Document 9859 [6] provides comprehensive guidelines that have been adopted globally, emphasizing the importance of human factors in safety management systems. Different organizations and regulatory bodies have adopted various approaches to tackle human factors in aviation safety. While the ICAO focuses on a broad systems approach, entities like Boeing have specialized initiatives targeting specific aspects such as  
Figure 1: Evolution of the causes of aviation accidents (adapted from [2; 6]). cockpit design and human-machine interfaces. A comparative analysis of these approaches reveals that no single methodology is universally effective; rather, a multi-faceted approach is often the most effective strategy for mitigating risks associated with human factors [12]. According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), aviation safety is \"The state in which risks associated with aviation activities, related to, or in direct support of the operation of aircraft, are reduced and controlled to an acceptable level\" [6]. Since it is not possible to eliminate risk, the ICAO promotes a process of incorporating defenses, preventive controls, or recovery measures to lower the severity and/or likelihood of a hazard's projected consequence such as an accident or incident. This process is widely adopted by the aviation ecosystem and encompasses the relation of the Risk Probability of occurrence vs. the Risk Severity of the event. This methodology can be illustrated in a matrix [6; 13], like the one in Table 1.  
Based on Table 1, special programs can be created to deal with errors and hazards behaviors. One of the mainstream programs is the already mentioned ICAO Safety Management System, commonly referred to as Annex 19 [11]. The objective of Safety Management Programs is to analyze the environment and build defenses against errors and hazards. These defenses are then responsible for creating specific mitigating actions, preventive controls, or recovery measures, putting them in place to prevent a hazard or its escalation into an undesirable consequence. Human errors have been implicated in most aviation accidents [3] and are defined by the ICAO as follows: \"Human Factors is concerned to optimize the relationship between people and their activities, by the systematic application of human sciences, integrated within the framework of systems engineering\" [14]. Thus, it can be said that human factors in aviation represent an interdisciplinary sphere that aims to elucidate the intricate interactions between aviation personnel, the environments they operate in, and the equipment they utilize, with the ultimate objective of improving safety, performance, and well-being within the aviation sector.