# Evaluation of Subway Emergency Evacuation Based on Combined Theoretical and Simulation Methods
## 4 Results and Discussion
### Discussion  
Table 9 summarizes the theoretical calculated values compared with the simulation values. As illustrated in Table 9, the theoretical evacuation time is marginally greater than the results obtained from the simulation. This discrepancy arises from the theoretical model's reliance on more conservative assumptions and parameters, which are designed to ensure the safe evacuation of passengers. Additionally, the theoretical model accounts for a broader range of scenarios, including extended travel distances and varying personnel densities. Among the scenarios analyzed, the deviation between the theoretical calculations and the simulation outcomes is minimal in Scenario #1, with an error margin of 3.3%. Conversely, Scenario # 3 exhibits the largest error at 18.4%, while the average error across the three scenarios is calculated to be 13.1%. These findings substantiate the validity and reasonableness of the theoretical time calculation model proposed in this study while also indicating that the simulation model is capable of more accurately reflecting real-world conditions. Through a comprehensive analysis of three representative scenarios concerning passenger flow evacuation in subway stations, we gain valuable insights into the characteristics of passenger movement and the utilization of facilities during the evacuation process. Building upon these analytical results, a series of scientifically grounded and rational recommendations for managing passenger flow can be formulated. Table 10 presents a summary of the simulation outcomes. Within the context of this study, Scenario #1 illustrates a condition marked by a reduced influx of passengers at the station, resulting in a total evacuation time of exactly 222.8 s. In contrast, Scenario #3 reflects a situation characterized by the highest observed passenger influx, leading to a cumulative evacuation duration of 323.5 s. Importantly, both scenarios adhere to the six  
Figure 17: The utilization status of different exits under Scenario #3. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c} \hline \hline
**Scenario** & **Theoretical Result (s)** & **Simulation Result (s)** & **Error** \\ \hline \#1 & 230.5 & 222.8 & +7.7 \\ \#2 & 235.7 & 222.5 & +13.2 \\ \#3 & 341.9 & 323.5 & +18.4 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 9: Comparison of simulation results and theoretical results of three typical scenarios. minute standard established by current national regulations, indicating that the evacuation capabilities of the Wulukou subway station are robust and compliant with safety standards. Furthermore, it is evident that the median escalator consistently demonstrates superior evacuation efficiency, a result primarily linked to its central location, which is free from nearby obstructions. For instance, the maximum passenger flow rate for the central escalator in Scenario #1 is recorded at 2.21 people per second, whereas the other escalators generally exhibit flow rates ranging from 1 to 2 people per second. In contrast, the evacuation efficiency of the staircases located on either side is significantly hindered, with the maximum passenger flow rates for the right escalator and staircase in Scenario #1 being 1.37 and 1.38 people per second, respectively. This reduction in efficiency is largely due to severe passenger congestion and the architectural complexities of the stair corners, which inadvertently obstruct smooth evacuation. To enhance evacuation guidance, it is recommended that attendants be strategically positioned at the junctions of these lateral staircases. Additionally, a comparative analysis of the scenarios reveals that Exits A, C, and G consistently exhibit higher evacuation efficiency and overall egress metrics, while Exits B and D are identified as less effective in terms of evacuation throughput. This pattern can be attributed to the proximity of Exits A and C to the fare-regulated areas, which encourages evacuating passengers from the platform to the concourse to favor these exits.