## Appendix A GAM Summary Tables \begin{tabular}{l l l l l} \hline \hline \multicolumn{5}{l}{Gorner Area GAM} \\ \hline Area \(\sim\) s(Average\_TAVG) + s(CO\({}_{2}\)) + s(Average\_PRCP) + s(Global\_Mean) & & \\ \hline Parametric coefficients: & Estimate & Std Error & T value & Pr (\(>\) \(\mid\) T \(\mid\) ) \\ \hline Intercept & 225,484 & 1279 & 176.3 & \(2.00\times 10^{-16}\) \\ \hline Smooth Terms & edf & ref def & F & \(p\)-Value \\ \hline s(Average\_TAVG) & 1 & 1 & 3.114 & 0.0817 \\ \hline s(CO\({}_{2}\)) & 1.186 & 1.347 & 96.1 & \(2.00\times 10^{-16}\) \\ \hline s(Average\_PRCP) & 1 & 1 & 0.419 & 0.5194 \\ \hline s(Global\_Mean) & 1 & 1 & 4.944 & 0.0292 \\ \hline Model & AIC & Deviance & Adj R2 & \\ \hline  & 1706.996 & 89.3 & 88.7 & \\ \hline Area \(\sim\) s(Average\_TMAX) + s(CO\({}_{2}\)) + s(Average\_PRCP) + s(Global\_Mean) & & & & \\ \hline Parametric coefficients: & Estimate & Std Error & T value & Pr (\(>\) \(\mid\) T \(\mid\) ) \\ \hline Intercept & 225,484 & 1279 & 176.3 & \(2.00\times 10^{-16}\) \\ \hline Smooth Terms & edf & ref def & F & \(p\)-Value \\ \hline s(Average\_TMAX) & 1 & 1 & 2.866 & 0.0935 \\ \hline s(CO\({}_{2}\)) & 1.295 & 1.525 & 83.051 & \(2.00\times 10^{-16}\) \\ \hline s(Average\_PRCP) & 1 & 1 & 0.562 & 0.4555 \\ \hline s(Global\_Mean) & 1 & 1 & 5.084 & 0.0271 \\ \hline Model & AIC & Deviance & Adj R2 & \\ \hline  & 1707.223 & 89.3 & 88.7 & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular} \begin{tabular}{l l l l l} \hline \hline Area \(\sim\) s(Average\_TMIN) + s(CO\({}_{2}\)) + s(Average\_PRCP) + s(Global\_Mean) & & & \\ \hline Parametric coefficients: & Estimate & Std Error & T value & Pr (\(>\)\(\left\lceil\mathrm{T}\right\rceil\)) \\ \hline Intercept & 225,484 & 1285 & 175.5 & \(2.00\times 10^{-16}\) \\ \hline Smooth Terms & edf & ref def & F & \(p\)-Value \\ \hline s(Average\_TMIN) & 1 & 1 & 2.094 & 0.1521 \\ \hline s(CO\({}_{2}\)) & 1.327 & 1.576 & 78.722 & \(2.00\times 10^{-16}\) \\ \hline s(Average\_PRCP) & 1 & 1 & 0.347 & 0.5578 \\ \hline s(Global\_Mean) & 1 & 1 & 5.353 & 0.0235 \\ \hline Model & AIC & Deviance & Adj R\({}^{2}\) & \\ \hline  & 1708.029 & 89.2 & 88.6 & \\ \hline Area \(\sim\) s(Average\_TAVG) + s(CO\({}_{2}\)) + s(Global\_Mean) & & & & \\ \hline Parametric coefficients: & Estimate & Std Error & T value & Pr (\(>\)\(\left\lceil\mathrm{T}\right\rceil\)) \\ \hline Intercept & 225,484 & 1273 & 177.2 & \(2.00\times 10^{-16}\) \\ \hline Smooth Terms & edf & ref def & F & \(p\)-Value \\ \hline Model & AIC & Deviance & Adj R\({}^{2}\) & \\ \hline Area \(\sim\) s(CO\({}_{2}\)) + s(Global\_Mean) & & & & \\ \hline Parametric coefficients: & Estimate & Std Error & T value & Pr (\(>\)\(\left\lceil\mathrm{T}\right\rceil\)) \\ \hline Intercept & 225,484 & 1287 & 175.3 & \(2.00\times 10^{-16}\) \\ \hline Smooth Terms & edf & ref def & F & \(p\)-Value \\ \hline s(CO\({}_{2}\)) & 1.648 & 1.876 & 68.22 & \(2.00\times 10^{-16}\) \\ \hline s(Global\_Mean) & 1 & 1 & 9.24 & 0.00324 \\ \hline Model & AIC & Deviance & Adj R\({}^{2}\) & \\ \hline  & 1706.643 & 88.9 & 88.5 & \\ \hline Area \(\sim\) s(CO\({}_{2}\)) + s(Average\_PRCP) + s(Global\_Mean) & & & & \\ \hline Parametric coefficients: & Estimate & Std Error & T value & Pr (\(>\)\(\left\lceil\mathrm{T}\right\rceil\)) \\ \hline Intercept & 225,484 & 1286 & 175.4 & \(2.00\times 10^{-16}\) \\ \hline Smooth Terms & edf & ref def & F & \(p\)-Value \\ \hline s(Global\_Mean) & 1 & 1 & 9.24 & 0.00324 \\ \hline Model & AIC & Deviance & Adj R\({}^{2}\) & \\ \hline  & 1706.643 & 88.9 & 88.5 & \\ \hline Area \(\sim\) s(CO\({}_{2}\)) + s(Average\_PRCP) + s(Global\_Mean) & & & & \\ \hline Parametric coefficients: & Estimate & Std Error & T value & Pr (\(>\)\(\left\lceil\mathrm{T}\right\rceil\)) \\ \hline Intercept & 225,484 & 1286 & 175.4 & \(2.00\times 10^{-16}\) \\ \hline Smooth Terms & edf & ref def & F & \(p\)-Value \\ \hline  & 1707.759 & 89.1 & 88.5 & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}