# Modeling Evacuees' Intended Responses to a Phased Hurricane Evacuation Order
## 2 Literature Review and Hypotheses
### Factors Affecting Warning Responses
#### 2.2.3 Other Factors  
[PERSON] and [PERSON] [56] found that those who did not evacuate in past storms are more likely to state they will stay in a future storm. The main reason for staying in a future storm as stated by these respondents is that they believe their home is safe. They also found that the \"hurricane savvy\" are more likely to depend on personal judgement rather than official orders [57]. These discussions lead to the following hypotheses:  
**Hypothesis 6 (H6):**_individuals who did not evacuate when an order was issued to the area previously are less likely to comply with a phased evacuation order._  
The hypothesis is based on the logic that previous noncompliance behavior affects individuals' intended compliance to evacuation orders issued in the future.  
**Hypothesis 7 (H7):**_individuals who experienced a hurricane more recently are less likely to comply with a phased evacuation order._  
These individuals may rely on their recent experience more than guidance from officials.  
Warning-source credibility and preference may vary with housing tenure. First, similar to the finding about the \"hurricane savvy,\" individuals who have longer housing tenure should be more familiar with the surrounding environment and thus are more likely to be able to make independent decisions. Second, an individual's temporary/permanent residence influences their information-search behavior, perceptions towards how credible an information source is, and their evacuation decisions [58; 59]. [PERSON] et al. [58] found that international tourists are more likely to use social media than domestic tourists. [PERSON] and [PERSON] [59] found that out-of-state and international tourists have higher credibility perceptions of the local authority than in-state tourists; international tourists are more likely to evacuate. These studies lead to the hypothesis:  
**Hypothesis 8 (H8):**_individuals who have longer housing tenure are less likely to comply with a phased evacuation order._Travel delay as an impediment factor influences evacuation convenience and thus affects evacuation-choice behavior [3; 60; 61; 62]. Travel delay information is available to individuals in real time from various sources, such as smartphone apps and news media. This study treats the length of travel delay as an observed factor since the information is available once individuals' destination choices are predicted.  
**Hypothesis 9 (H9):**_individuals who expect longer travel delays are less likely to comply with a phased evacuation order._  
Individuals who evacuate longer distances are more likely to expect longer travel delays. They generally prefer to depart early [63] so that they can reach destinations before the storm's landfall, which makes them potentially less likely to comply with a phased evacuation order.  
Lastly, the possession of a plan increases the likelihood of warning compliance [35]. [PERSON] [64] found that having an evacuation plan increases the likelihood of evacuation because a plan helps individuals know what to do (such as where to go and when to leave). The associated hypothesis is:  
**Hypothesis 10 (H10):**_individuals with an evacuation plan are more likely to comply with a phased evacuation order._  
First, individuals with an evacuation plan are more likely to have better knowledge of the evacuation zone they live in. Such knowledge may equip them with a better understanding towards a phased evacuation order regarding which zone should begin to evacuate and at what time. Second, an evacuation plan prepares people to act, which may include closely following information from authorities. Following this information at least allows those individuals to be aware of the released evacuation order.