# Characterization and Modelling of Potential Seaborne Disasters, in the ANA Region
## 3 Literature Review
### Importance of Consequences Assessment in the Arctic and North Atlantic Context  
In general, there is recent research that clearly highlights the main challenges and also identifies opportunities of maritime transport in the post-pandemic era [22]. In addition, there are also promising new technologies for maritime transportation such as artificial intelligence and machine learning [23]. In terms of technological developments of oil pollution emergency response and ship collision prevention, there has been recent work that investigates use of multiple criteria simulation and optimization for emergency response in marine oil spill accidents [24] and the use of techniques such as Bayesian network for oil spill scenarios due to ships collision [25].  
Specifically, for the Arctic, work has been conducted to provide a risk-based approach for determining the future of shipping in the Arctic. Ref. [26] investigate risk approaches associated with Arctic shipping along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) connecting European and Asian ports and its alternatives such as the Southern Sea Route (SSR) through the Suez Canal. In addition, ref. [27] investigate a systemic risk approach of maritime-related oil spills viewed from an Arctic and insurance perspective. They compared the economic and environmental impact of the two cases of oil spills of Exxon Valdez and BP Deepwater Horizon and proposed ecosystem-based management. Other work compiled the marine accidents/incidents which are recorded by Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) as occurring north of \(66^{\circ}33^{\prime}\) in the years from 1993 to 2011 and attempted to apply root cause analysis [28]. In addition, ref. [8] investigated categories of risks and emergencies in Arctic shipping and classified the Arctic shipping risks based on factors related to incident type, scale, and location.  
The literature on the field shows that collisions, groundings, oil spills, and incidents involving cruise ships are situations that can occur within the ANA region. Although technology, vessel construction standards, preparation, and regulations have played a positive role in decreasing the likelihood or severity of these types of incidents, the increased traffic in the region has caused an overall increase in risk. Consulted SAR and OSR practitioners appear to share to a certain extent these conclusions. This is primarily argued in light of the harsh weather conditions that characterize the ANA region.  
Among the aforementioned typologies, it is suggested that Oil spill and incidents with cruise ships present the highest potential to develop into major disasters. Practitioners also appear to rank these two typologies as the direct [5].  
In this article we have therefore decided to focus on oil spill. This is due to two main reasons: on the one hand an oil spill has the potential to affect not only the involved parties, but also the environment, the local communities and the wider society (see for example, ref. [29]. On the other hand, real life incidents have shown that OSR operations are often precluded by SAR. In the next section we select a case study of the well-known disaster in the ANA Region of the Exxon Valdez oil spill in order to demonstrate the application of the proposed root cause analysis tools.