## 5 Discussion
### Changes in the Extreme Climate Indices  
On account of the delicate ecological balance, the Tarim Basin is painfully vulnerable to the impact of extreme climate. Between 2000 and 2022, the Tarim Basin exhibited a notable upward tendency in the extreme warm temperature indices, while simultaneously experiencing a downward tendency in the extreme cold temperature indices. The magnitudes of the changes observed in the TN10P and TN90P exceed those observed in the TX10P and TX90P, resulting in the nighttime temperatures rising more rapidly than the daytime temperatures. The rate of warming for the daily minimum temperature exceeds that of the daily maximum temperature, resulting in an asymmetry between the two changes and ultimately bringing about a decline in DTR [68]. This changing trend is consistent with the whole of Xinjiang and the world, but the warming rate of TNN is lower than the average warming rate of TNN in China [69]. Extreme warm temperature events mainly occur in the southern part of the Tianshan Mountains surrounding the Tarim Basin and the western part of the Taklimakan Desert [70]. In the basin, the temperature demonstrates a consistent rise, consistent with the broader temperature patterns observed in Xinjiang and across China [71; 72]. Therefore, it is evident that the extreme temperature indices demonstrate significant regional coherence.  
In this study, an analysis of extreme precipitation indices RX1d, RX5d, and SDII reveals a significant increasing trend, suggesting a rise in precipitation intensity within the Tarim Basin from 2000 to 2022. It is anticipated that this trend will persist throughout the 21 stcentury [71; 73]. The amount of rainfall in the eastern part of the Tarim Basin is significantly higher than in the western part. Intense rainfall is mainly concentrated on the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, and extreme precipitation is significantly increased in the northern part of the Tarim Basin [74]. In addition, the changes in temperature and precipitation in the Tarim Basin can be reflected in the changes in glacial lakes. The expansion of glacial meltwater has increased the area of lakes, mainly due to the large-scale reduction in glaciers under warming conditions. The expansion of non-glacier-fed lakes reflects an increase in precipitation in the mountainous areas of the Tarim Basin [75]. These findings provide confirmation that the climate in Xinjiang is undergoing a gradual transition towards a warmer and more humid pattern. [PERSON] observed a declining trend in the number of overall cumulative dry days (CDD) in Xinjiang [76]. However, in this study, the CDD showed a rising tendency, which contradicts the general pattern observed in Xinjiang, and compared to northern Xinjiang, there are fewer RX1d and RX5d events with weaker intensity in the Tarim Basin, while the CDD events are the opposite [77]. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, [PERSON] concluded that the CDD in Central Asia is expected to increase slightly in the 21 st century [78], and persistent drought in southern Xinjiang is also expected to intensify [79], aligning with the conclusions drawn from this research. It is evident that the extreme precipitation indices exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity. The escalation in the intensity of drought is anticipated to result in a corresponding rise in the process of desertification [80]. Therefore, in future endeavors related to ecological construction and protection, it is imperative to prioritize drought prevention and control measures in order to mitigate the risk of desertification expansion.