# Forest Fire Risk Forecasting with the Aid of Case-Based Reasoning
## 3 Forecasting the Risk of Forest Wildfires Using a Case-Based Approach
### Results (Employed Works)
#### 3.3.3 Conceptualization and a Case Model  
To conceptualize and form a case model, we used the above-mentioned works in this area as well as pre-processed data from the database on fires in the Baikal natural territory for 2017-2020, information on weather, infrastructure (roads, settlements, etc. ), and vegetation type. In particular, the domain concepts and the relationships between them were defined (Figure 5). Based on the developed conceptual model, a case structure was created, which includes the following properties in the descriptive part: date and time of the start (detection) of a fire; fire territory; fire area; forest type; fire hazard class of a forest area; fire hazard class in the forest according to weather conditions; distance to motorways and railways; distance to the reservoir; distance to the nearest settlement; weather conditions: air temperature (T), atmospheric pressure (Po), wind direction (DD), wind strength (Ff), description of precipitation (type and level of precipitation), etc. The following properties were included in the training part of the case: forest quarter and assessment of the possibility of fire. A detailed description of properties is provided in Table 2. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c} \hline \hline
**Case Properties** &
\begin{tabular}{c} **Description/Possible Values/Units of** \\ **Measurement** \\ \end{tabular} & **Source of Information** \\ \hline \multicolumn{3}{c}{_Problem description_} \\ Date and time of the start (detection) of & & Satellite images \\ the fire & Polygon & Satellite images \\ Fire terriory & Square kilometers & Satellite images \\ Forest quarter & Name of the forestry, plot, quarter & GIS data \\ Forest-seed zoning zone & Pine, spruce, larch, cedar & Forest regulations \\ Forest growing area & Forest-steppe, tagi, South Siberian & Forest regulations \\  & mountain & \\ Fire hazard class of the forest area & High—I, above average—II, average—III, & Forest regulations \\  & below average—IV, low—V & Forest regulations \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 2: Properties of a case model. A digital map of the area at a scale of 1:200,000 is used as an electronic topographical basis. The main thematic layers are vector layers obtained from various institutions. Data on the water system of Irkutsk Oblast, roads, and railways were provided by the Institute of Geography SB RAS [65]; data on forestry and forest quarters were obtained from the materials of the state forest inventory; meteorological data were acquired from the Federal State Budgetary Institution \"Irkutsk Department of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring\" [66]; data on thermal points obtained from the Institute of Solar and Terrestrial Physics SB RAS [60]. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c} \hline \hline
**Case Properties** & **Description/Possible Values/Units of Measurement** & **Source of Information** \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{ \begin{tabular}{c} Fire hazard class of the forest according to weather conditions \\ \end{tabular}  } & V—extreme (more than 10,000), IV—high (from 4001 to 10,000), III—medium (from 1001 to 4000), II—small (from 301 to 1000), & Determined by the complex indicator of V. [PERSON] [64] \\  & I (up to 300) & \\ \multirow{2}{*}{\ \begin{tabular}{c} Distance to the nearest railway \\ Distance to the nearest motorway \\ Distance to the nearest motorway \\ Distance to the nearest reservoir \\ Distance to the nearest settlement \\ Population density \\ Air temperature (T) \\ Dew point temperature (Td) \\ Atmospheric pressure (Po) \\ Relative humidity of the air (U) \\ Wind direction (rumba) (DD) \\ \end{tabular}  } &
\begin{tabular}{c} Kilometers, intervals of values: 0-0.5; \\ 0.5–3; 3–10; 10–15; more than 15 \\ Kilometers, intervals of values: 0-0.5; \\ 0.5–3; 3–10; 10–15; more than 15 \\ Kilometers, intervals of values: 0-0.5; \\ Kilometers, intervals of values: 0-0.