## 4 Results
### Land Requirement Estimation and LULC Prediction under Scenario III  
Land requirement estimation under Scenario III (Economic crop zonation) was estimated based on areas of suitability classes for economic crops according to the LDD and Markov Chain model, as shown in Table 17.  
As a result, the increased LULC classes were paddy field, field crop, water body, rangeland, urban and built-up area, and miscellaneous land, with annual increase rates of 5.96, 1.21, 0.80, 0.61, 0.38, and 0.10 km\({}^{2}\), respectively. In contrast, the decreased LULC classes were perennial trees and orchards, forest land, wetland, and para rubber, with annual decrease rates of 5.23, 3.65, 0.16, and 0.01 km\({}^{2}\), respectively.  
The results of LULC prediction data between 2020 and 2029 under Scenario III, which were simultaneously allocated based on elasticity values and the conversion matrix of LULC change (Tables 9 and 12), the land requirements (Table 17), and driving factors of LULC change for specific LULC type location preference (Table 8), are presented in Table 18 and Figure 6. In the meantime, the deviation between the estimated land requirements and predicted LULC data in 2029 under Scenario III is reported in Table A7 in Appendix B.  
As a result, under Scenario III, economic crop areas, precisely paddy field, field crop, para rubber, and perennial trees and orchards were located based on suitability classes of economic crop zonation. Paddy fields expanded from 220.74 km\({}^{2}\) in 2019 to 280.20 km\({}^{2}\) in 2029, and field crop areas increased from 21.84 km\({}^{2}\) in 2019 to 34.11 km\({}^{2}\) in 2029. Meanwhile, areas of para rubber were unchanged in 2029, with an area of 19.78 km\({}^{2}\). To the contrary, perennial trees and orchards are expected to decrease from 79.22 km\({}^{2}\) in 2019 to 26.94 km\({}^{2}\). This result indicates the influence of economic crop zonation on LULC prediction under Scenario III.  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Year**} & \multicolumn{8}{c}{**Area (in km\({}^{2}\))**} \\ \cline{2-10}  & **UR** & **PD** & **FC** & **RB** & **PO** & **FO** & **WA** & **RL** & **WL** & **ML** \\ \hline
2019 & 33.10 & 220.74 & 21.84 & 19.78 & 79.22 & 436.91 & 33.37 & 27.26 & 16.41 & 2.71 \\
2020 & 33.48 & 226.70 & 23.05 & 19.77 & 73.99 & 433.26 & 34.16 & 27.87 & 16.25 & 2.81 \\
2021 & 33.86 & 232.66 & 24.26 & 19.76 & 68.76 & 429.61 & 34.96 & 28.48 & 16.09 & 2.91 \\
2022 & 34.24 & 238.62 & 25.48 & 19.75 & 63.52 & 425.96 & 35.76 & 29.09 & 15.93 & 3.01 \\
2023 & 34.63 & 244.58 & 26.69 & 19.74 & 58.29 & 422.30 & 36.56 & 29.70 & 15.77 & 3.11 \\
2024 & 35.01 & 250.54 & 27.90 & 19.72 & 53.05 & 418.65 & 37.35 & 30.31 & 15.60 & 3.21 \\
2025 & 35.39 & 256.50 & 29.11 & 19.71 & 47.82 & 415.00 & 38.15 & 30.92 & 15.44 & 3.30 \\
2026 & 35.77 & 262.46 & 30.32 & 19.70 & 42.58 & 411.34 & 38.95 & 31.53 & 15.28 & 3.40 \\
2027 & 36.16 & 268.42 & 31.53 & 19.69 & 37.35 & 407.69 & 39.75 & 32.14 & 15.12 & 3.50 \\
2028 & 36.54 & 274.38 & 32.74 & 19.68 & 32.12 & 404.04 & 40.54 & 32.75 & 14.96 & 3.60 \\
2029 & 36.92 & 280.34 & 33.96 & 19.66 & 26.88 & 400.38 & 41.34 & 33.36 & 14.80 & 3.70 \\ \hline
**Annual Change rate** & **0.38** & **5.96** & **1.21** & \(\mathbf{-0.01}\) & \(\mathbf{-5.23}\) & \(\mathbf{-3.65}\) & **0.80** & **0.61** & \(\mathbf{-0.16}\) & **0.10** \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 17: Annual land requirements under Scenario III for each LULC type.  
As with Scenario I, there was a slight difference between the required land area and the predicted area of each LULC type in 2029 under Scenario III. The deviation values varied from \(-0.0023\) to \(0.0015\%\); however, the summation of deviation values was \(0.00\%\). (See Table 15 in Appendix B). Hence, the LULC prediction under Scenario III can be considered acceptable for estimating sediment and nutrient export in the study area.