###### Abstract  
South Korea has developed road-based transportation and uses a lot of gasoline. South Korea imports gasoline since it is not produced domestically. So, fluctuations in gasoline prices have a significant impact on the national economy. Currently, gasoline orders, which are based on gasoline consumption, are analyzed in relation to fluctuations in gasoline prices. However, gasoline orders can also change due to various non-price factors. Therefore, to understand the trend of gasoline orders, it is important to identify additional factors that gas stations consider when determining orders. We collected 180 monthly samples of data on 167 variables. Sudden international issues lead to rapid fluctuations in gasoline orders, which can lead to outliers. A class imbalance occurs because outliers are generally fewer in number than the normal data points. Therefore, to address the class imbalance, we proposed a method that grouped the data samples into 11 clusters using the K-means clustering algorithm and then augmented the data into 85 datasets in each cluster through the Variational Auto-Encoder. We evaluated the augmented datasets through the R-Squared, Root Mean Squared Errors, and accuracy of various regression models. Based on the experimental results, when predicting gasoline orders at gas stations in South Korea using augmented datasets, linear regression showed the best performance. machine learning; linear regression; class imbalance; variational auto-encoder; K-means clustering; data augmentation; gasoline orders +
Footnote †: journal: _Sci._  
002320  
asymmetry between international crude oil and gasoline has been likened to the \"rockets and feathers\" phenomenon. [PERSON] et al. [5] analyzed the impact of gasoline supply adjustments due to the international crude oil shock on wholesale and retail gasoline prices. The costs with supply adjustments included stickiness and asymmetry in gasoline prices. [PERSON] [6] analyzed the asymmetry in gasoline price adjustments and international crude oil prices using four datasets: the weekly Dubai crude oil price, gasoline prices at refineries, gasoline prices at gas stations, and exchange rates. Price asymmetry arose due to the cost of managing the gasoline at refineries and gas stations. [PERSON] et al. [7] analyzed the asymmetry of gasoline price adjustments due to changes in international crude oil prices based on changes within three months using the daily gasoline price and Dubai crude oil price. They found that the volatility in international crude oil prices amplified the asymmetry in gasoline prices. In contrast, the government's policy to cut fuel taxes weakened the asymmetry. [PERSON] et al. [8] analyzed the asymmetry of US Gulf gasoline prices and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. The entire analysis period was divided into five intervals associated with periods of stable international oil prices, increasing international oil prices, and global economic crises. It was found that the degree of asymmetry in gasoline prices was influenced by the global economy. Gasoline prices are closely related to fluctuations in international crude oil prices and gasoline orders, and they become more sensitive when crude oil prices rise. However, gasoline orders can also change due to various non-price factors. According to an analysis of national energy supply and demand trends, the monthly average international gasoline (95 Research Octane Number, 95 RON) price of the Mean of Platt's Singapore Kerosene (MoPS) fell by KRW 26.19 in November 2021 [9]. Additionally, since 12 November 2021, the fuel tax imposed on gasoline has decreased by 20%. However, gasoline orders increased by only 2.74% compared to the previous month, and the retail price of gasoline at gas stations rose by KRW 25 per liter. This phenomenon means that non-price factors have a significant impact on gasoline orders, given the COVID-19 pandemic, the continued rise in international crude oil prices, and the global economic downturn.