###### Abstract
Technological prediction began in the 1950s as a military competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. After World War II, while promoting national development through scientific and technological innovation, technology prediction played an important role in establishing R & D priorities and development strategies for the development of new weapons in the military field as well. However, over the last 70 years, many technology forecasting methods have been developed and used by governments, companies, and other organizations to ease the uncertainty of the future. Countries around the world, including the Korean military, are paying attention to new technologies that will lead to the fourth industrial revolution in military capability building. The Korean Agency for Defense Development (ADD) chose 57 technologies that correspond to the core fields of the fourth industrial revolution, such as robots, new materials, internet of things, artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, and smart medical care, in a booklet titled \"Patented Defense Technology to Lead the Fourth Industrial Revolution\". In 2021, the Ministry of National Defense and the Ministry of Science and ICT decided to establish a defense Information and Communications Technology (ICT) support group and prepared a Digital New Deal/Smart Defense Innovation Workshop to explore a role for smart defense innovation at the academic level. From July 2020, South Korean soldiers were allowed to use smartphones during after-work hours. With the development of IT technology, smartphones are now becoming the unparalleled comrades of soldiers in the military base. Defense Acquisition Program Administrations (DAPA), which is responsible for acquiring Korea's weapon systems, has signed a contract with Samsung Electronics for the rapid trial acquisition of a commercial smartphone-based small unit combat command system in 2020 in order to quickly apply innovative technologies in the civil sector that will change the future battlefield to the defense sector [13]. The 'Commercial Smartphone-based Small Unit Combat Command System' is a personal combat device that integrates Samsung Electronics' Galaxy S20 military tactical version and radio. It communicates with real-time encrypted data and voice through the module. It also features a night vision mode to ensure operational security and combatant survivability (night displayed adjustment), stealth mode (communication interruption), and intelligence capture mode (night video capture and sharing) functions. Considering the trend of rapid technological development in the era of the fourth industrial revolution, it is necessary to quickly apply and utilize advanced technologies in the civilian field to the military for efficient defense acquisition. Through the Rapid Demonstration Acquisition Project (RDAP), the DAPA purchases privately developed products to which the fourth industrial revolution-based technology is applied; the military conducts a pilot operation to confirm military utility, and the results are fed back to the private sector. In addition, products whose military utility has been confirmed are promoted through an official acquisition program such as additional mass production according to military requirements. The RDAP is a new system for rapidly acquiring weapon systems in line with the speed of technological development of the fourth industrial revolution and was first introduced in the defense sector in 2020 led by the DAPA. Smartphones are a representative product that integrates the core technologies of this era and can be used for both dual-use purposes, civilian and national defense. This study is about a technology prediction methodology that can be used for technology prediction, which is the main activity of defense technology planning.