# Jakarta Pandemic to Endemic Transition: Forecasting COVID-19 Using NNAR and LSTM
## 4 Discussion  
By the end of 2021, the second vaccination dosage in the Jakarta region had reached 92.2% of the vaccination target set by the government. This number shows that almost all people in DKI Jakarta have acquired additional immunity against COVID-19. By the end of 2021, vaccination in Jakarta had reached 92.2% of the target. This made a significant difference in the mortality rate due to the Omicron variant of COVID-19. Compared to the highest number of deaths from the delta variant in 2021, the highest number of deaths from the omicron variant did not reach half of the highest death rate from the delta variant. The highest cases of COVID-19 in Jakarta occurred in the first quarter of 2022. At that time, out of 15,825 daily positive cases, 495 were Omicron variants. With a high number of COVID-19 positive cases and a low mortality rate, it can be said that the Omicron variant has a lower death risk than the Delta variant. Endemic refers to diseases that are consistently present in a particular geographic location without causing changes to the pattern of people's daily lives. An outbreak is said to change its status from a pandemic to an endemic if there is a decrease in the number of deaths caused by it and if the number of cases is constant or increases in specific periods (a seasonal pattern occurs). In other words, the transition from a pandemic to an endemic period is indicated by a decrease in the fatality rate. Based on the statement above, predictions are made for COVID-19 positive cases and death cases caused by COVID-19 in Jakarta for the next seven days. Forecasting of positive instances of COVID-19 was performed using the NNAR or Neural Network Autoregressive method with 27 neurons in the input layer, 28 neurons in the hidden layer, and one neuron in the output layer. The results of the prediction are shown in Table 2. As shown in Table 2, forecasting daily positive cases using NNAR shows that the positive cases from 4 April to 8 April will significantly increase. Within seven days, from 4 to 10 April, the highest cases will occur on 8 April, as many as 698 cases. However, on 9 and 10 April, positive cases of COVID-19 in Jakarta are predicted to decrease. Compared to 8 April, cases on 9 April are predicted to be lower by two instances. On 10 April, the difference in daily positive cases is expected to be more significant because the forecast results show a decrease to as many as 22 cases. Meanwhile, the results of forecasting the number of deaths caused by COVID 19 in Jakarta using the LSTM method are shown in Table 3. It shows the multi-step forecast of daily death cases caused by COVID-19 for the following seven periods after 3 April 2022, from 4 April 2022 to 10 April 2022. The results show that the death cases caused by COVID-19 in Jakarta tend to increase from the beginning to mid-April and then remain constant until June. Nevertheless, the increase in the number of death cases is not significant. These results show that although the number of positive cases of COVID-19 is high, the mortality rate is low. As already mentioned, it can be concluded that the fatality rate from COVID-19 is not very high at the moment. Thus, this forecasting showed that Jakarta had entered an endemic phase. In Jakarta, the transition from the pandemic phase to the endemic phase will prompt the government to end the policy of enforcing community emergency restrictions (PPKM) and return community activities to normal. Activities in schools and offices can continue as usual (work from the office), although health protocols, such as wearing masks and regular hand washing, still need to be implemented. The results of this study are supported by the decision of President [PERSON] on 17 May 2022, which allows the public to no longer wear masks in outdoor areas. The predictions made regarding the number of confirmed positives and the number of deaths from COVID-19 are based only on historical data without considering other factors affecting them. In this study, the other influencing factors were deemed to be constant.