# Characterization and Modelling of Potential Seaborne Disasters, in the ANA Region
## 5 Conclusions  
In this paper we identified and characterised high-priority potential seaborne disasters and catastrophic incidents in the ANA region such as cruise ship incidents, oil spills, and fishing boat groundings. Based on this characterization and the consideration of potential consequences of the identified incident typologies to the parties involved, the environment, and the wider society, we chose a classic study, the Exxon Valdez oil spill, in order to demonstrate the use of root cause analysis techniques such as bowtie modelling methodology, the fault tree analysis, and the reliability block diagram. The advantages of these techniques and their usefulness to complement and enhance the uptake of lessons learned have been highlighted in terms of visual representation of risk, causal factors, consequences, and means of mitigation. By applying these techniques to the Exxon Valdez incident, we have also pinpointed their weaknesses and offered suggestions for future improvements. We have highlighted the importance of including human factors, often missing from FTA but provided by Bowtie modelling and RBD, and the need for categorizing the importance of causal factors and the relationships among them that Bowtie modelling fails to provide, but that RBD helps expose. Through the application of these models to the Exxon Valdez oil spill incident we have also shown the value of bowtie modelling through the inclusion of consequences, which in this case go beyond the loss of life, environmental damage, and economic losses (often the sole focus of research on the field) and includes secondary consequences for the affected communities in the shape of lost cultural markers and a reconfiguration of social structures. We argue that conducting a more holistic analysis that takes into account the ramifications of an incident facilitates the establishment of more adequate mitigation means. It is hoped that such modelling techniques can contribute to the resilience mental toolbox and framework set by [46]. The analysis also shows that there is an amplified risk of failures and larger consequences in the ANA region. Incidents happening in this context may be caused by failures in the technological and normative systems, increase rapidly over time, and may last indefinitely. The Exxon Valdez accident was a result of multiple failures in complex man-machine systems, including poor attitudes, inadequate management, and poor seamanship. The primary cause was human error, with the third mate and captain failing to navigate the ship safely. The ship's design was unsafe, lacking the required double hull, and its radar was non-functional. There was also inadequate Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) oversight. As for the consequences, the Exxon Valdez oil spill resulted in an ecological disaster of unparalleled scale in the Arctic. The stormy weather hindered an effective and swift spill response, exacerbating the consequences daily. The acute phase saw significant consequences for wildlife. The immediate effects were catastrophic, with high mortality rates among marine mammals and seabirds due to their frequent contact with the sea surface. Long-term impacts include enduring effects on the local ecology and human services. The validity of our proposed hybrid model in Figure 1 and subsequent Figures 2 and 3 is obviously limited by the same concerns in any safety science technique as outline by [47], where they identified three types of 'lenses', which influence the validity of accident analysis techniques, which are threefold: first, the lens of data in terms of sources and collection method; second, the lens of method, which relates to the type of method employed; and third, the lens of analyst in terms of background, profile and biases. Being aware of, and constrained by, these lenses, the authors have tried, to the best of their knowledge, to present a hybrid modelling approach that captures causality and supports decision makers for prevention and mitigation against similar hazards.