# The Effect of Situational Variables on Women's Rink Hockey Match Outcomes
###### Abstract  
The main objective of the present study was to develop a concise predictive model to determine the likelihood of winning in female risk hockey based on various situational variables. Additionally, the study aimed to assess the individual impact of each predictor on match outcomes. The analysis encompassed a dataset of 840 matches during five consecutive seasons (from 2018-2019 to 2022-2023) in the Spanish first division (_OkLiga_). Employing the comprehensive method of all possible regressions, the most effective predictive logistic model for match outcomes was identified. This entire model featured five categorical predictor variables (_match location, team level, opponent level, scoring first_, and _match status at halftime_) and one binary outcome variable (_match outcome_). Subsequently, the final model, which exhibited a sensitivity and specificity surpassing 80% for a cut-off point of 0.439, emerged. This model was applied to predict winning a match in 18 frequent situations determined from a two-step cluster analysis. Within this predictive framework, _match status at halftime_ emerged as the most influential predictor impacting the match outcome, followed by _opponent level, team level_, and _match location_. The implications of our findings extend to rink hockey coaches and practitioners. Recognizing the significant impact of situational variables on match outcomes empowers them to customize game plans and design more specific strategies, thereby enhancing game understanding and elevating the overall performance. m 2024  
Similar to many other team sports, match analysis has gained significant acceptance among players, coaches, and sports scientists due to the growing professionalization of sports [2; 3]. This practice is considered essential for evaluating and enhancing sports performance. Match analysis serves as a valuable tool for providing an objective assessment of the opponents' strengths and weaknesses [4]. Additionally, it plays a crucial role in developing players' technical and tactical knowledge, fostering critical thinking, improving decision-making skills, and boosting overall confidence [5]. Situational variables are one of these indicators of performance. This term encompasses various match and situational conditions capable of exerting a substantial influence on performance at a behavioral level [6]. Situational variables, such as match location, match status, or match time, have been established as pivotal determinants of performance, particularly in the analysis of game-related statistics, significantly impacting both team and player performance [7; 8]. Since Fink hockey, much like other team sports, is impacted by strategic elements, it is logical to suggest that situational variables play a role in shaping the performance of both teams and players [6]. Furthermore, the particular regulations of Fink hockey, divided into two halves of 25 min each, with the option of two timeouts per team, allow for the adaptation of tactics and strategies based on game constraints and situational variables. Probably the most analyzed topic in male Fink hockey teams has been game location [1]. This phenomenon, termed Home Advantage (HA), represents the perceived edge that teams have when playing on their home turf compared to away matches, typically estimated at around 60%, aligning with trends observed in other team sports [9]. In risk hockey, previous investigations have proved the existence of HA, determining its effect to be around 60%. To illustrate this, [PERSON] et al. [10] and subsequently [PERSON] and [PERSON] [11] documented HA rates of 58.32% and 59.80%, respectively, in the Spanish League (_OKLiga_). Likewise, in the Portuguese League, [PERSON] et al. [12] identified a HA value of 60.88%. Other variables that have been examined include \"scoring the first goal\" [13], the crown effect [14], the impact of goalkeeper performance [15; 16; 17], and the influence of set-pieces [18].