# BN-RA: A Hybrid Model for Risk Analysis of Overload-Induced Early Cable Fires
## 6 Conclusions  
To investigate the early fire risk caused by cable overloads, this study proposed a hybrid risk analysis model called BN-RA. Specifically, we investigated the risk transmission paths in overload-induced early cable fires, where the influence of overcurrent, damage, aging, and environment temperature on the risks of early cable fires was mainly considered. A BN was established for estimating the risk transmission paths for overload-induced  
Figure 10: Risk indices and risk levels for the case study.  
early cable fires. The parameters of this risk BN were determined based on the cable overload coupling experiment and data analysis. Combined with the entropy weight method, a risk index-based risk assessment model was proposed for assessing the risk state of overload-induced early cable fires. A numerical simulation was performed for quantifying the associated risk levels. Finally, a case study was implemented for validating the proposed method, and the results indicated that the proposed method can effectively evaluate the state of the cable and elucidate the underlying fire risk mechanisms.  
From the established risk transmission paths for overload-induced early cable fires, we determined that the occurrence of overload-induced cable fires is characterized by stages; the early evolution stage is crucial for cable fire prevention and early warning. Overcurrent, mechanical damage, aging, and temperature were the basic factors associated with the cable overload-induced fire risk. From the numerical simulation and entropy weight method analysis, we found that overcurrent is the main factor causing fires, which shows the importance of reducing circuit load and configuring circuit-monitoring devices for cable fire prevention and control. In addition, cable damage can be prevented, cable barriers should be set, and new cables should be replaced regularly to reduce the likelihood of fires caused by cable damage and aging.  
Despite these novelties and contributions, there are several potential directions that can be further investigated. This study explored the cable fire risk owing to the cable overload, and proposed a hybrid risk analysis model (i.e., BN-RA). However, there are more dangerous situations that may result in cable fires, such as short circuits, leakage discharges, and poor contacts. Besides, this study only investigates the widely used single core low-voltage PVC cables. However, it is interesting to explore the influence of multi-core cables with different insulation thickness, different installation methods, and high-voltage cables on fire risk in future. At the same time, in this sense, a more comprehensive early risk analysis of cables still requires in-depth studies. In addition, dynamical BNs are expected to be useful for cable fire studies.  
Conceptualization, X.C. and X.G.; methodology, X.C. and X.G.; writing--original draft preparation, X.C. and X.G.; writing--review and editing, X.C., X.G., G.H., S.O., Y.L., and I.M.H. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.  
This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China Grant No. 72104020, and by Researchers Supporting Project number (RSP-2021/389), King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.  
No applicable.  
Data Availability Statement: Data are available at my GitHub [[https://github.com/cxiaolong/experiments/](https://github.com/cxiaolong/experiments/)]([https://github.com/cxiaolong/experiments/](https://github.com/cxiaolong/experiments/)).  
The authors declare no conflict of interest.