# Spatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya
## 3 Results
### Projected Rainfall Erosivity and Soil Erosion Rates in Kenya
The North Eastern Region (NER) had the lowest rainfall erosivity among all the Kenya regions, with a mean rainfall erosivity of 644.8 MJ mm ha\({}^{-1}\) h\({}^{-1}\) yr\({}^{-1}\) in the baseline period. The CSIRO_MK3.6.0 RCP-2.6 (2030s) forecasted the lowest change of \(-\)16.3% in this region, followed by MIROC-5, which predicted a decrease ranging from \(-\)3.2% to \(-\)11.8% during the two time periods for \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline  & **LVR** & **CER** & **CR** & **NER** & **RVR** \\ \hline Baseline Rainfall Erosivity (M) mm ha\({}^{-1}\) h\({}^{-1}\) yr\({}^{-1}\) & 7430.0 & 1562.3 & 1983.0 & 644.8 & 2077.6 \\ \hline \multirow{8}{*}{RCP-2.6 (2030s)} & CCCMA\_CANESM2 & 11,620.6 & 3489.0 & 2504.0 & 851.0 & 4698.8 \\  & Change (\%) & 56.4 & 123.3 & 26.3 & 32.0 & 126.2 \\  & CESM1-CAM5 & 7979.0 & 2059.8 & 2321.5 & 780.5 & 2272.0 \\  & Change (\%) & 7.4 & 31.8 & 17.1 & 21.0 & 9.4 \\  & CSIRO\_MK3.6.0 & 7218.8 & 1702.7 & 1661.6 & 539.6 & 1884.5 \\  & Change (\%) & \(-\)2.8 & 9.0 & \(-\)16.2 & \(-\)16.3 & \(-\)9.3 \\  & MIROC-5 & 6836.4 & 1478.3 & 1777.3 & 610.7 & 1607.3 \\  & Change (\%) & \(-\)8.0 & \(-\)5.4 & \(-\)10.4 & \(-\)5.3 & \(-\)22.6 \\ \hline \multirow{8}{*}{RCP-2.6 (2080s)} & CCCMA\_CANESM2 & 12,691.5 & 3544.9 & 2263.0 & 831.9 & 5106.3 \\  & Change (\%) & 70.8 & 126.9 & 14.1 & 29.0 & 145.8 \\ \cline{1-1}  & CESM1-CAM5 & 8888.9 & 2333.9 & 2698.3 & 982.4 & 2658.2 \\ \cline{1-1}  & Change (\%) & 19.6 & 49.4 & 36.1 & 52.4 & 27.9 \\ \cline{1-1}  & CSIRO\_MK3.6.0 & 7542.9 & 2032.6 & 1921.7 & 680.4 & 2239.5 \\ \cline{1-1}  & Change (\%) & 1.5 & 30.1 & \(-\)3.1 & 5.5 & 7.8 \\ \cline{1-1}  & MIROC-5 & 6216.3 & 1492.0 & 1613.4 & 568.9 & 1555.2 \\ \cline{1-1}  & Change (\%) & \(-\)16.3 & \(-\)4.5 & \(-\)18.6 & \(-\)11.8 & \(-\)25.1 \\ \hline \multirow{8}{*}{RCP-8.5 (2030s)} & CCCMA\_CANESM2 & 11,197.6 & 3323.9 & 2270.9 & 812.4 & 4590.6 \\ \cline{1-1}  & Change (\%) & 50.7 & 112.8 & 14.5 & 26.0 & 121.0 \\ \cline{1-1}  & CESM1-CAM5 & 7730.3 & 2447.8 & 2846.2 & 1081.5 & 2458.5 \\ \cline{1-1}  & Change (\%) & 4.0 & 56.7 & 43.5 & 67.7 & 18.3 \\ \cline{1-1}  & CSIRO\_MK3.6.0 & 8436.7 & 2096.4 & 1905.2 & 645.0 & 2442.8 \\ \cline{1-1}  & Change (\%) & 13.6 & 34.2 & \(-\)3.9 & 0.03 & 17.6 \\ \cline{1-1}  & MIROC-5 & 8172.1 & 1620.7 & 1983.0 & 624.1 & 1750.4 \\ \cline{1-1}  & Change (\%) & 10.0 & 3.7 & 0.00 & \(-\)3.2 & \(-\)15.7 \\ \hline \multirow{8}{*}{RCP-8.5 (2080s)} & CCCMA\_CANESM2 & 14,714.5 & 5759.4 & 3040.2 & 1168.8 & 8376.5 \\ \cline{1-1}  & Change (\%) & 98.0 & 268.6 & 53.3 & 81.3 & 303.2 \\ \cline{1-1}  & CESM1-CAM5 & 10,581.6 & 2932.8 & 3292.2 & 1272.5 & 3491.1 \\ \cline{1-1}  & Change (\%) & 42.4 & 87.7 & 66.0 & 97.3 & 68.0 \\ \cline{1-1}  & CSIRO\_MK3.6.0 & 10,629.4 & 2750.8 & 2171.6 & 879.6 & 3353.8 \\ \cline{1-1}  & Change (\%) & 43.1 & 76.1 & 9.5 & 36.4 & 61.4 \\ \cline{1-1}  & MIROC-5 & 9324.0 & 1735.6 & 2237.6 & 806.5 & 1974.1 \\ \cline{1-1}  & Change (\%) & 25.5 & 11.1 & 12.8 & 25.1 & \(-\)5.0 \\ \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 15: Projected change to mean baseline rainfall erosivity (%) across the regions of Kenya. the two emission scenarios. In contrast, the CESM1-CAM5 RCP-8.5 (2080s) predicted the highest increase in rainfall erosivity of approximately 97.3%. The baseline average rainfall erosivity of the Lake Victoria region that falls within the tropical rainforest climate had the highest rise (98.0%) under the CCCMA_CANESM2 RCP-8.5 (2080s) projection. Most of the GCMs produced positive changes in the mean annual erosion rates, with the rift valley region indicating the highest change (107.94% under the CCCMA_CANESM2 RCP-8.5 (2080s)) (Table 16). Figure 10: Rainfall erosivity projections in Kenya for the periods of the 2030s and 2080s under the RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, driven by CCCMA_CANESM2, CESM1-CAM5, CSIRO_MK3.6.0 and MIROC-5 GCMs. Figure 11: Absolute differences of rainfall erosivity (M) mm ha\({}^{-1}\) h\({}^{-1}\) yr\({}^{-1}\)) between the 2030 and 2070 projections and baseline data.