## 4 Discussion  
This study analyses the trends of the MSAVI in the study area from 1984 to 2020, and utilizes Sen's slope estimates to provide a detailed analysis of the health and productivity of vegetation. The analysis highlights that while climate change, land use alterations, and human activities serve as pivotal factors influencing these trends, there is general stability or a mild improvement in vegetation growth throughout the observed period. This observation is substantiated by detailed spatial mapping and statistical analysis, providing a granular understanding of the variations across different seasons and locations within the region. Notably, an anticipated increase in both mean maximum and minimum temperatures can significantly influence crop growth, water availability, and soil health, posing challenges such as heat stress, altered crop phenology, and pest dynamics. These temperature changes will have a profound impact on the productivity of staple crops like rice and wheat, potentially exacerbating water scarcity issues through increased evapotranspiration rates [26; 27; 28]. Concurrently, these findings also address the subtle rise in average precipitation rates, indicating a possible shift in the region's hydrological patterns. This shift, characterized by a potential increase in precipitation variability, would have mixed consequences for agricultural practices and ecosystem stability [29]. On the one hand, enhanced precipitation could ameliorate water availability and aid crop growth [30]; on the other, it could lead to adverse conditions like waterlogging and soil erosion, necessitating adaptive management practices to mitigate these effects [31; 32; 33]. The synthesis of findings from the MSAVI trend analysis with broader climate change projections offers a comprehensive outlook on the future of food security in the study area [34], and underscores the necessity for policy  
Figure 10: Spatio-temporal changes in temperature from 2005 to 2020.  
interventions, adaptation strategies, and community engagement to effectively navigate the challenges posed by climate change [35; 36; 37]. The discourse further elucidates that while increased precipitation might offset some negative impacts of rising temperatures [38; 39], it does not entirely negate the challenges introduced by temperature elevations. The efficacy of such mitigation is contingent upon a range of factors, including soil characteristics, land use practices, and crop types, highlighting the complexity of the climate-agriculture nexus. This study shows that increases in temperature might have a more pronounced impact on the region's agricultural sector and food security than changes in precipitation patterns. This calls for a strategic approach of adaptation measures that address both immediate and long-term climate change impacts, fostering a resilient agricultural landscape that is capable of sustaining the region's food security and livelihoods amidst evolving climatic conditions. The observed decline in total GPP in the region during the year 2010 of \(-\)570 g yr\({}^{-1}\) is, therefore, in agreement with the broader patterns of climate impact on regional ecosystems. This decrease was attributable to an increase in temperature, specifically by 1 \({}^{\circ}\)C in 2010, which resulted in the sensitivity of GPP to climatic changes. This is very important as it shows how the smallest variation in temperature can lead to significant changes in the productivity levels of the ecosystem, without which it would be difficult to determine the exact future climatic conditions and the possible effects on agricultural output and biodiversity. In the future, this will translate to a GPP loss projection of \(-\)2500 g yr\({}^{-1}\) by 2100 due to a 3 \({}^{\circ}\)C rise in temperature, underlining the growing risk from climate change.