# Probabilistic Analysis of Low-Emission Hydrogen Production from a Photovoltaic Carport
###### Abstract  
This article presents a 3D model of a yellow hydrogen generation system that uses the electricity produced by a photovoltaic carport. The 3D models of all key system components were collected, and their characteristics were described. Based on the design of the 3D model of the photovoltaic carport, the amount of energy produced monthly was determined. These quantities were then applied to determine the production of low-emission hydrogen. In order to increase the amount of low-emission hydrogen produced, the usage of a stationary energy storage facility was proposed. The Metalog family of probability distributions was adopted to develop a strategic model for low-emission hydrogen production. The hydrogen economy of a company that uses small amounts of hydrogen can be based on such a model. The 3D modeling and calculations show that it is possible to design a compact low-emission hydrogen generation system using rapid prototyping tools, including the photovoltaic carport with an electrolyzer placed in the container and an energy storage facility. This is an effective solution for the climate and energy transition of companies with low hydrogen demand. In the analytical part, the Metalog probability distribution family was employed to determine the amount of monthly energy produced by 6.3 kWp photovoltaic systems located in two European countries: Poland and Italy. Calculating the probability of producing specific amounts of hydrogen in two European countries is an answer to a frequently asked question: In which European countries will the production of low-emission hydrogen from photovoltaic systems be the most profitable? As a result of the calculations, for the analyzed year 2023 in Poland and Italy, specific answers were obtained regarding the probability of monthly energy generation and monthly hydrogen production. Many companies from Poland and Italy are taking part in the European competition to create hydrogen banks. Only those that offer low-emission hydrogen at the lowest prices will receive EU funding. 1 2  
fuels [7; 8]. However, a revolution called electromobility has been present in the world for over a decade now. Currently, almost all automotive companies offer a full range or at least several models of electric vehicles powered by electricity from traction batteries on board [9]. These vehicles are characterized by good performance and a range of at least 500 km or even more on a single full charge [10]. In parallel with the development of electric vehicles and their increasing number in individual markets, the infrastructure needed to charge their batteries is still developing. Taking into account the requirements of the climate and energy transition, it would be best if the energy for charging electric vehicles came entirely from renewable energy sources. This would make it possible to completely avoid CO2 emissions and achieve climate neutrality by 2050 [11]. However, replacing vehicles with combustion engines with their electric counterparts is not easily achieved [12; 13]. This process, which has already begun, will probably last for several decades [14]. A huge challenge in electromobility is generating very large amounts of energy from renewable energy sources that would meet the vehicles' momentary energy demand. The power grid present in many European countries and around the world is not adapted to receive and emit such large amounts of energy and requires new techniques for balancing the energy contained in it. Scientific analyses and industrial practice lead to the conclusion that very large and low-cost methods of storing large amounts of energy are needed for both short (a few hours) and longer (a few days) periods of time. Stationary storage of very large amounts of energy is currently very expensive. However, despite this, energy storage facilities with energy capacities of over 10 MWh are already being built to support the local power grids. Their need results primarily from the cyclical and seasonal nature of electricity production by photovoltaic systems and wind farms.