## 4 Case Study Analysis
### Optimization Results of the Power Sector's \"Dual Carbon\" Path
The maturity and adoption timeline of future CCUS technology will deeply affect coal's phase-out and the transformation methods of coal power. If CCUS does not achieve technological \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Year** & **2020** & **2025** & **2030** & **2035** & **2040** & **2045** & **2050** & **2055** & **2060** \\ \hline Electrolytic hydrogen load/billion kilowatts & 0.00 & 0.05 & 0.1 & 0.6 & 1.7 & 2.9 & 4.5 & 5.5 & 6 \\ Hydrogen storage (thousand tons) & 0 & 0 & 13 & 70 & 340 & 880 & 1900 & 2440 & 2900 \\ Hydrogen fuel power Generation (billion kilowatts) & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.01 & 0.05 & 0.13 & 0.27 & 0.34 & 0.40 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 6: Scale of hydrogen energy technology development from 2020 to 2060. Figure 7: Changes in power generation installation scale under scenarios of new energy storage technology breakthroughs. breakthroughs and large-scale commercial application, the future system will essentially be unable to retain traditional power sources such as coal and gas power that can provide inertia. From an economic perspective, if CCUS cannot be retained, the complete phase-out of coal power by 2060 will require an additional 500 million to 1.3 billion kilowatts of new energy installation and over 1 billion kilowatts of new energy storage in the long term, As shown in Figure 8.  
(3) Hydrogen Energy Technology  
Low-cost water electrolysis for hydrogen production is key to achieving the sustainable development of hydrogen energy. If the economic development of hydrogen technology falls short of expectations, the extensive decarbonization processes in industries such as transportation and manufacturing will be hindered, leading to a greater reliance on electricity-based alternatives. This would result in an overall increase in the electrification level of society's energy consumption. Moreover, a reduction in the scale of hydrogen production through electrolysis would lower the capacity to integrate renewable energy across systems, making it more difficult to achieve breakthroughs in renewable energy consumption across different periods. This would profoundly impact the \"dual carbon\" (carbon peak and carbon neutrality) pathway for the power sector. Compared to the baseline scenario, a hypothetical increase or decrease of 50% in future hydrogen production from electrolysis is used to delineate high and low scenarios for the development scale of electrolysis-based hydrogen production. As shown in Figure 9, quantitative analysis reveals that in the near to mid-term, the differences in the dual carbon pathway for the power sector are minimal across different scenarios due to the relatively small scale of hydrogen production. However, in the long term, by 2060, under the high and low hydrogen production scenarios, renewable energy capacity increases by 410 million kW and decreases by 370 million kW, respectively, compared to the baseline scenario, while coal power capacity increases by 30 million kW and decreases by 20 million kW, respectively. Figure 8: Trend in power generation installation changes in a future scenario with low expected development CCUS technology.