# Exploring the Evolution of Drought Characteristics in Balochistan, Pakistan
## 5 Conclusions  
This study furthers the research carried out by [PERSON] et al. (2016) by analyzing the evolution of drought characteristics in Balochistan from 1902 to 2015 using SPII, based on the gridded dataset provided by CRU, as an indicator of drought. The SKATER algorithm was first applied to the study area to regionalize it into six spatially contiguous zones. The resulting zones reflect the climatology of the region. Run theory was applied to 3-month and 12-month SPEI time series to identify and characterize droughts in terms of duration, severity, intensity, and peak. Moreover, the Mann-Kendall test was carried out to identify any statistically significant trends in the SPII time series, as well as in the drought characteristics. Additionally, the study area was divided into two periods, pre-1960 and post-1960. Then, descriptive statistics were calculated for each zone. This was done to segregate the effects of climate change, which are believed to have accelerated in the 1960s.  
The main conclusions from this study are the following. SKATER is a useful technique to regionalize droughts, as it takes into account the spatial contiguity of the dataset. Additionally, all of the zones in Balochistan show a trend toward decreasing SPEI (increasing dryness). This may indicate intensified droughts in the future, and worsening aridity and desertification. Zone 5 experienced the most change in 3-month and 12-month SPEI from 1902 to 2015. In general, all of the drought characteristics seem to be worsening with time in all of the zones, although not all the changes are statistically significant. The worst droughts that affected the whole of Balochistan occurred in the mid-1960s and around 2000. Zone 4 witnessed the longest duration drought of all the zones, which lasted for almost 5 years in the mid-1960s.  
This study has limitations, including using only a single type of drought indicator: SPEI. To understand drought in a holistic manner, it is pertinent to employ an interdisciplinary approach. The effects on the ecosystem and society need to be taken into account to come up with effective policies. A social aspect of this research would have greatly validated the results of this study. This direction will be our future course of action.  
All authors have read and agree to the published version of the manuscript. Conceptualization and methodology, S.J., F.N.C., G.H.D., K.A. and N.Y.K.; software and visualization, S.J. and F.N.C.; formal analysis, S.J., and F.N.C.; writing--original draft preparation, S.J.; writing--review and editing. S.J., F.N.C., G.H.D., K.A. and N.Y.K.  
Funding:N.Y.K. was supported by the United States Agency for International Development through the U.S.-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water (USPCAS-W) and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Educational Partnership Program with Minority-Serving Institutions--Cooperative Science Center for Earth System Sciences and Remote Sensing Technologies under the Cooperative Agreement Grant No. NA16 SEC4810008. In addition, the authors would like to acknowledge the financial support for this study from the USPCAS-W, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro, Pakistan established with the grant of United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USPCAS-W, USAID, or the Governments of the United States or Pakistan. The authors declare no conflict of interest.