# Influencing Factors Analysis of Crude Oil Futures Price Volatility Based on Mixed-Frequency Data
## 4 Variables and Data Description
### Analysis of the Single-Factor Associative Effect of Level and Fluctuation
#### 5.2.1 Analysis of Combination Effects of Low-Frequency Variables
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c} \hline \hline
**Index Mean** & **Single Level** & **Single Volatility Model** & **Combined Effect Model** \\  & **Effect Model** & **Single Volatility** & **of Level and Volatility** \\ \hline BIC & \(-7.0128\) & \(-7.0268\) & \(-7.0135\) \\ LLH & \(-4967.73\) & \(-5217.56\) & \(-5246.28\) \\ H & \(0.0188\) & \(0.0187\) & \(0.0184\) \\ MAE & \(0.0005\) & \(0.0005\) & \(0.0005\) \\ RMSE & \(0.0008\) & \(0.0008\) & \(0.0008\) \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 8: Comparison of average estimation results between associative effect model and the single-factor level and fluctuation effect model in the low-frequency factors. more significant when studied in combination. As two important substitutes for oil, there is a strong correlation between these substitutes' horizontal price and the volatility of crude oil prices. 1 From the perspective of speculation: Generally speaking, speculative factors are one of the influencing factors of financial market price fluctuations. According to the stratification and combination research, the stronger the market speculation, the stronger the volatility of crude oil futures. When the number of speculative factors increases, the speculative power in the market is increasing, and the increase in speculative power will cause frequent price changes to a certain extent, which intensifies market volatility in the crude oil market. However, from the perspective of crude oil, as a global bulk product, speculative factors are not the main factor in market fluctuations. 5 From the supply and demand level: From the perspective of the level effect coefficients \(\theta_{l}\) and volatility effect coefficients \(\theta_{v}\) of Inventory, OPEC, and OECD, it is mainly supply and demand that can affect the fluctuation of crude oil prices. Current consumption and current inventory both represent the current demand for crude oil, and OPEC production represents the current crude oil output, that is, the current supply. Regarding the value and significance of the estimated coefficient, whether it is a single analysis or a combined effect study, supply and demand are both significant factors, which is consistent with economic theory. Generally speaking, when the supply increases, the price of crude oil tends to fall. When the supply is high, the crude oil market has sufficient supply and the market is stable, so the volatility of crude oil prices is low. The increase in demand for crude oil will increase the price of crude oil. When the demand for crude oil is high, its changes will increase the volatility of crude oil prices. Based on the results of the hierarchical and combination analysis of low-frequency factors, the most important factor affecting the volatility of international crude oil futures returns is the supply and demand of crude oil. In the long run, other factors such as alternative energy sources, speculative factors, inventory changes and other long-term factors will eventually be reflected in the supply or demand level of the crude oil market; in the short term, on-market and off-market factors will affect short-term price fluctuations of the crude oil futures, but in fact they still affect the short-term supply and demand of crude oil. Therefore, supply and demand are the most important factors in the fluctuation of international crude oil prices.