# The Development of a Cold-Chain-Packaging Risk Management Model Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Network
## 2 Literature Review
Different supply chains have a significant impact on the packaging. Considering that the supply chain during packaging designs can increase overall efficiency, minimize waste, and maintain product quality and safety to the greatest extent. Due to the complex nature of cold chain packaging, it is subject to many risks during transportation and storage. Therefore, safety and risk management are important for cold chains. Supply chain risk management includes risk identification, assessment, mitigation and monitoring [27]. The identification of the risk factors and risk mitigation strategies of cold chains is often carried out through a literature review, field observations and expert opinions, and the assessment of the risk factors is undertaken using a varied range of methods such as constructing a hierarchical structure, addressing causal relationships and classifications, etc. Food or agricultural cold chains have received most of the research attention [17; 28; 29; 30; 31]. Most of the studies regarding cold chain risk management focus on theoretical aspects in which risk factors are derived from the literature and data, while some concentrate on empirical studies, in which risk factors are identified from expert opinions and field observations. Different cold chain risk management studies have different focuses, e.g., concentrating on technologies used in cold chains, different links of cold chains, the supply chain management of cold chains, the information or financial flow of cold chains, etc. Cold chain performance metrics include occupational safety, customer satisfaction, cost, the efficiency of cold chains, company development and reputation, shelf life of the products, temperature disruptions, etc. Cold chains have many links, which include transportation and distribution, processing and packaging, information processing and warehousing, and [PERSON] et al. (2021) identified transportation and distribution as the most influential links leading to cold chain failures [40]. Different cold chain risk management studies have covered different types and ranges of risks, e.g., operational risks [13; 40; 42; 43], packaging risks [29; 37; 40; 41; 44; 45], supply chain risks, fraud risks [33; 44], temperature disruption risks, etc., and have categorized risks in different ways. [PERSON] et al. (2020) added budget and time constraints to the proposed risk mitigation actions to investigate the impact of the actions on risk factors considering cost and duration [37]. Common risk factors that can lead to disruptions of cold chains include natural risk, supply chain risk, logistic risk, quality risk and packaging risk. Natural disasters and emergency events like political instability, power outage, strikes, extreme weather, traffic instability, etc., make it difficult for cold chains to function properly [1; 17; 28; 29; 30; 34; 35; 36; 41; 43; 46; 47; 48; 49]. Integration and information sharing are important to the efficiency of cold chains, and a lack of integration can lead to supply chain and logistic disruptions. Supply chain and logistic-related risks include supply delays, market instability, forecasting errors, poor infrastructures and devices, lack of information sharing, human errors, economic instability, etc. Good infrastructure can not only maintain the product quality and safety but also reduce time, cost and waste. However, cold chain facilities and equipment are sometimes still not sufficient as related risks still exist, which, for example, include poorly refrigerated equipment or vehicles, pre-cooling not being up to standard, machines being too old, etc. Not only does the 'hardware' of cold chains sometimes not meet the standards, the'software', e.g., monitoring, data and information management, may be lacking as well. Information sharing is still lacking sometimes, and the improvement of information sharing can enhance the responsiveness of inquiries along the cold chain [1; 2; 17; 28; 29; 30; 32; 34; 35; 36; 38; 39; 41; 42; 46; 47; 48; 49; 50].