## 4 Discussion
Figure 7 shows where conversions occurred between imagery dates and reveals that certain areas in PCNP are especially sensitive to change and have changed multiple times. These sensitive areas are along the coast and the transition zones between forest, grassland, and wetland. We hypothesize that some of these areas are especially susceptible to conversion due to disturbance and the inherent sensitivity and heterogeneity of vegetation transition zones in savannas. Clusters of conversion to non-woody vegetation (colored in green) between 1975 and 1993 may be a result of selective logging of broadleaf and pine trees, which occurred until becoming a protected area in 1994 [52]. Later in the time-series, non-woody conversions surrounding pockets of forest could be a result of fire management practices. TIDE uses prescribed fires in PCNP to maintain the pine savanna and promote post-fire pine regeneration. If the fire management efforts were not effective, it is likely that the 1993-2011 and 2011-2019 change trajectories would show an expansion of non-woody vegetation or woody encroachment in the grassland [52]. Between 1975 and 1993, there is also an area of concentrated woody conversion (colored in yellow) that occurs along the PCNP coastline. [PERSON] and [PERSON] [2001] indicate that this coastal area contains mangrove and littoral forest. Mangrove and littoral forest are dynamic environments that occupy the space between marine and terrestrial ecosystems, so it is not surprising that the PCNP coastline has experienced change in the time-series. Nevertheless, the spatially concentrated woody conversion along the coast suggests that a disturbance event, such as a hurricane or wildfire, or its aftermath could be the source of change. Since this a forest in the littoral zone, pre-1975 hurricane activity is more likely to have damaged the mangroves or reduced stand density. There were multiple tropical cyclone events that affected Belize before 1975: Hurricane Hattie (1961), Hurricane Francelia (1969), Hurricane Edith (1971), Tropical Storm Laura (1971), and Hurricane Fifi (1974) [53]. [PERSON] [54] observed mangrove defoliation and widespread destruction of coconut palms in areas affected by Hurricane Hattie [54]. These pre-1975 events may have reduced littoral forest density and induced regrowth. The fact that there are also groups of pixels along the coast that went from woody to woody between 1975 and 1993 suggests that woody conversion was already happening before 1975 and continued through 1993. Even though mangrove forests are not typically associated with savanna landscapes, the importance of the mangroves to the pine savanna manifests through the interception of energy from hurricanes and other storms [55]. One of the contributions of this study to savanna science is the importance of ascertaining and including fine-scale driving factors, such as topography and soil type, into remote sensing analyses. Each savanna landscape is unique and contains varying drivers and disturbances that determine vegetation distribution, with common drivers often being plant available moisture and nutrients [56]. In the lowland savannas of Belize, edaphic and topographic factors play key roles in vegetation distribution [23]. These factors vary on multiple scales in Belize, and the fine-scale variations within these are important vegetation drivers in PCNP. Elevation ranges from 35 m to sea level and broadly distributes vegetation in PCNP; nevertheless, it appears that the fine-scale consequences of elevation, such as locally improved drainage, determine where woody vegetation can survive. Since there are widespread nutrient-poor soils in the coastal plain, pockets of nutrient rich, alluvial soils along fluvial systems also determine the extent to which woody vegetation can establish. As is seen in the SVM classification maps, pixels at higher elevations and around fluvial systems were classified as woody vegetation, which agrees with other studies [28; 33; 38].