# An Alternative Globalization Barometer for Investigating the Trend of Globalization
## 4 Discussion  
The globalization trend impacts the economic, social, and political development of all countries around the world, making it a highly relevant topic of discussion. Current literature is limited to qualitative judgements or point-quantifications, leaving the broader stroke issue of trend largely untouched. In order to fill the gap, we developed the Globalization Barometer to evaluate the trend of globalization in more depth.  
We constructed a Globalization Index based on existing indices and used the HP filter method to decompose the trend and deviation terms, of which the latter is used to construct the Globalization Barometer. Our results indicate that since 2000, _de facto_ and  
Figure 6: Forecasting of the globalization trends.  
de jure_ globalization generally maintained an upward trajectory. The 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic have negatively impacted globalization trends, serving as turning points on the curve. From a world average perspective, _de facto_ globalization saw a significant setback post the 2008 financial crisis, followed by a rapid rebound until the pandemic in 2020. _De jure_ globalization generally maintained steady growth but also experienced the shocks of the two crises, including the 2008 slowdown in growth and the dip in trend in 2020. Our results are intuitive and support previous observations [5; 7].  
Although the 2020 pandemic has exerted a negative impact on globalization, it is well-worth noting the unexpected positive effect of reducing the gap in _de facto_ and _de jure_ globalization. Further analysis revealed an uneven distribution of globalization across the world. We find that economies in North America, Northeast Asia, and Europe feature high _de facto_ globalization; on the other hand, economies with high _de jure_ globalization are generally concentrated in Western Europe, Northern Europe, and North America. However, the spatial variation of globalization barometer shows that the impact of the pandemic is not evenly felt around the world. Economies with higher scores in _de facto_ and _de jure_ globalization experience greater shocks, while economies with lower scores remain relatively untouched. Our results complement current literature on globalization trends and the pandemic's impacts and threats [8; 9] while also adding to the current debate the argument that the impact of globalization mainly was felt in a few economies and regions and may help form a more balanced post-COVID global paradigm.  
By deconstructing the driving forces of globalization, our research shows uneven levels of globalization across the economic, social, and political dimensions. _De facto_ globalization grew below trend with economic and social globalization on trend, and political globalization below trend. _De jure_ globalization turned out to be below trend as well for this year, due mainly to economic and social globalization's downturn compared with political globalization. Our results indicate that albeit the fact that the current development of globalization in general failed to meet our expectations, there are still positive dimensions in globalization, and may serve as the future driving forces of stable and positive development.  
Finally, we have also used the Random Forest model to conduct time-series predictions for the years between 2021 and 2025. For the subsequent 5 years, _de facto_ and _de jure_ globalization will likely maintain an upward trajectory, thereby providing quantitative, machine learning-backed response to current qualitative research on future globalization trends.