## 3 Results
### Environmental Benefits Potentials of EU's Milk Industry by RFID Uses in 2035  
By 2035, milk production in the EU is projected to decline at an average annual rate of 0.2%, primarily due to sustainability pressures, stricter environmental regulations, and reductions in dairy herd sizes. Simultaneously, productivity growth is expected to slow to 0.9% annually as the historical gains from technological intensification diminish. Within this evolving context, the deployment of RFID technology in the milk supply chain may play an increasingly strategic role, offering operational efficiencies that reduce milk loss and associated environmental burdens.  
Figure 9 illustrates the projected environmental benefits of RFID-enabled waste reduction under this 2035 scenario, with particular focus on climate change, land use, and water resource depletion. Strong correlations between these categories reflect the resource-intensive nature of dairy production: land is required for feed cultivation, water is consumed across milking and processing stages, and emissions arise from livestock, energy use, and fertilizer application.  
Under the modeled scenario, the total GHG emissions associated with both milk losses and RFID tag use are projected to fall from 3.62 Mt CO\({}_{2}\)-eq in 2023 to 3.53 Mt CO\({}_{2}\)-eq in 2035.  
Figure 9: Projections on environmental footprints reduction of the EU’s milk supply from using RFID tag (FU is defined as the environmental footprint reduction per 1 L of fresh milk packaged in a carton and tracked using RFID technology in the EU milk supply chain.).  
Although modest, this reduction demonstrates how RFID-enabled logistics improvements can meaningfully contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing overproduction. Similarly, avoided land use impacts are estimated at 3.93 Mt C-deficit in 2035, driven by reduced feed demand and pasture utilization. Water resource depletion is also projected to decline, reflecting lower demand for irrigation, cleaning, and processing due to less wasted milk. Together, these avoided impacts underscore RFID's capacity to enhance per-unit resource efficiency throughout the supply chain.  
However, it is important to note that the 2035 projections rely on linear extrapolations and static assumptions, including constant RFID tag composition, fixed waste reduction rates, and present-day energy profiles. Dynamic factors such as decarbonization of the EU energy mix, innovations in tag materials and design, efficiencies in digital infrastructure, and changes in consumer behavior are not captured in this scenario. Therefore, the results should be interpreted as indicative estimates that illustrate potential benefits rather than predictive forecasts.  
Overall, the findings suggest that, even under conservative assumptions, RFID technology can support the EU dairy sector in achieving its climate and resource efficiency goals. By reducing milk loss at upstream and retail stages, RFID offers a viable pathway to mitigate environmental burdens without requiring significant structural changes in production. Nevertheless, future research should adopt a more dynamic, systems-level modeling approach to fully capture the complex interplay of policy, technology, and market trends beyond 2035.