## 3 Results  
### Results for Ukraine  
The transport system of Ukraine has a number of infrastructure problems that are reflected in such indicators as capacity within the boundaries of important transport hubs, significant differences between the infrastructure provision of different territories, and the lack of consistency in the national transport complex. Table 1 presents data on freight turnover in Ukraine from 2016 to 2020 by transport type. As shown in Table 1, there was a significant reduction in freight turnover in Ukraine from 364.2 billion km to 313.2 billion km, or 14.0%, from 2017 to 2020, indicating a general slowdown in business activity in the industry. A deterministic factor analysis methodology should be used in the future to determine the causes of this phenomenon and the factors that lead to the negative dynamics of the target indicator. Railway freight transport accounted for the largest share in 2020 (56.1%), followed by pipeline transport (22.1%) and road transport (20.8%). Other types of transport accounted for approximately 1% of total transport. The analytical model in (1) makes it possible to assess variations in the scale of transport operations \(Ft\) resulting from modifications in freight transportation volume \(Tv\), as well as transformations in the distribution of freight transport \(Swi\) and the average distance of freight transportation \(Tdi\). Let us examine the impact of these factors for Ukraine and Poland using the method of absolute differences. Based on the computations, the decline in cargo flow in Ukraine during 2017-2020 took place due to  
\[\Delta Ft_{Tv}=+13.6(billiontkm);\]  
\[\Delta Ft_{Sw}=-43.0(billiontkm);\]  
\[\Delta Ft_{Td}=-21.6(billiontkm);\]  
\[\Delta Ft=-51.0(billiontkm).\]  
The overall quantity of freight movement across all transportation modes in Ukraine rose from 1582.0 to 1640.9 thousand tons, marking a +3.7% increase. Consequently, the transport sector's cargo turnover expanded by +13.6 billion ton-kilometers, reflecting a favorable tendency. Nevertheless, additional elements adversely affected the aggregate performance metric. Considering the industry's specificity, the longest average distance of cargo transportation belongs to pipeline transport, which ranged from 700-900 km in different years; on railway transport, this indicator was 550-600 km, and, on road transport, it was 50-60 km. In recent years, two trends were observed in Ukraine. Firstly, there were gradual structural shifts in the use of transport in favor of road transport, whose share in cargo transportation increased from 70.9% to 75.1%. At the same time, there was a proportional decrease in the role of railway and pipeline transport, which led to a decrease in the cargo turnover of the industry by \(\Delta Ft\_Sw=-43.0\) billion ton-kilometers. Secondly, there has been a reduction in the average distance of transportation for all types of transport. As a result, in 2017-2020, it decreased from 230.2 km to 190.9 km. The corresponding changes in the performance indicator amounted to \(\Delta Ft\_Td=-21.6\) billion tonne-kilometers. Due to military actions within Ukraine, restrictions enforced against Russia, and transformations in the EU energy sector, Ukraine is swiftly losing its role as a transit hub for oil and gas. Over time, this will further lead to a decline in the significance of pipeline transportation. Conversely, rail freight has historically been linked to the operations of the metallurgical industry. In 2022, Ukraine lost many of these enterprises, the restoration of which is economically impractical because of their outdated technology, high energy usage, and significant environmental contamination. For this reason, the services of railway freight transportation will also continue to decline. Therefore, the main prospects for further development in this industry need to be associated with road transport.