# Research on an Evaluation Method of Snowdrift Hazard for Railway Subgrades
## 5 Conclusions  
After an in-depth study and evaluation of the risk of snowdrift disasters along the Afu Railway, this research has successfully constructed a multi-level evaluation system that takes into account on-site environmental conditions, regional snowfields, regional windfields, and subgrade design parameters. Through on-site monitoring, data analysis, and model calculations, the study has clarified the weight and role of various contributing factors in snowdrift disasters, providing a scientific basis for the prevention and control of snowdrift disasters on railway subgrades. This study ensures a more accurate assessment of the risks associated with snowdrifts, which is essential for developing effective mitigation strategies. By understanding the relative importance of different factors, authorities can prioritize measures that address the most significant risks, thereby enhancing the resilience of railway infrastructure to such natural hazards. 1. Among the factors affecting the risk of snowdrift disasters on railway subgrades, four primary contributing metrics were selected: on-site environmental conditions, regional snowfield conditions, regional windfield conditions, and subgrade design parameters. Then, 11 underlying indicators were defined, and a \"5-level\" evaluation system for the risk of snowdrift disasters on railway subgrades was established. Through calculations, the risk levels of snowdrift disasters along the Afu Railway line were determined. 2. In the weight distribution of the snowdrift disaster risk on railway subgrades, it was found that among the first-level metrics, regional snowfield conditions and subgrade design parameters have a significant impact on the risk of snowdrift disasters, with weights of 26.81% and 40.53%, respectively. Among the secondary indicators, the depth of cuttings and average snow depth have a considerable impact on the risk of snowdrift disasters to the railway subgrade, with weights of 29.04% and 15.09%, respectively. 3. During the evaluation process, individual indicator evaluation values from typical work points were substituted into the corresponding membership functions to obtain the membership degree values for the indicators at these work points. Subsequently, through fuzzy calculations and normalization processing, the hazard degree of each typical work point was determined. Moreover, by fixing the relevant parameters within the region according to regional characteristics and only considering changes in the form of the subgrade structure, the calculations were simplified. 4. The scientific and systematic hazard assessment method developed in this research offers foundational data and theoretical support for future studies. It provides relevant departments with a scientific basis for formulating effective countermeasures, ultimately enhancing the safety and reliability of railway operations. Additionally this assessment method serves as a valuable guide for the risk evaluation of snowdrift disasters on railways, informing the design of railway subgrades and the development of disaster prevention and mitigation strategies. Methodology, D.L. and S.Q. ; Validation, M.B. and Y.Z. ; Investigation, S.Q., H.X., J.F. and W.Z. ; Writing--original draft, S.Q., Z.T. and H.X. ; Writing--review & editing, Y.Z., H.X., Z.T. and W.Z. ; Supervision, D.L. and M.B. ; Project administration, S.Q. and M.B. ; Funding acquisition, D.L. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. This work was financially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China Projects 42372325 and the Major Projects of Financial Science and Technology Plan of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (No: 2020 AA002). Not applicable. Some or all of the data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request. The authors deeply appreciate the Editor and the anonymous reviewer for their useful comments, especially for the comments marked on the hard copy of the MS.