## 5 Application of Marine Accident Occurrence Prediction Model and Results
### Characteristics of Data U Set
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multicolumn{6}{c}{**Original Data**} & \multicolumn{6}{c}{**SMOTE**} \\ \hline \multirow{3}{*}{Characteristic} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Accident} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Accident} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Accident} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Accident} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Accident} \\  & \multicolumn{2}{c}{occurrence} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{occurrence} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{occurrence} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{occurrence} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{occurrence} \\ \cline{2-9}  & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Yes (N = 975, 96.34\%)} & No (N = 37, 3.66\%) & Yes (N = 975, 50.00\%) & No (N = 975, 50.00\%) \\ \hline Categorical Variables & Count & Percentage & Count & Percentage & Count & Percentage & Count & Percentage \\ \hline \multicolumn{9}{c}{Year} \\ \hline
2017 & 171 & 17.54\% & 5 & 13.51\% & 171 & 17.54\% & 98 & 10.05\% \\ \hline
2022 & 155 & 15.90\% & 10 & 27.03\% & 155 & 15.90\% & 62 & 6.36\% \\ \hline \multicolumn{9}{c}{Annual sailing distance} \\ \hline Less than 50 km & 611 & 62.67\% & 29 & 78.38\% & 611 & 62.67\% & 809 & 82.97\% \\ \hline
50 km to 100 km & 139 & 14.26\% & 1 & 2.70\% & 139 & 14.26\% & 38 & 3.90\% \\ \hline More than 100 km & 225 & 23.08\% & 7 & 18.92\% & 225 & 23.08\% & 128 & 13.13\% \\ \hline \multicolumn{9}{c}{Passenger ship} \\ \hline Ship managed by B & 3 & 0.31\% & 1 & 2.70\% & 3 & 0.31\% & 1 & 0.10\% \\ regional office & 118 & 12.10\% & 5 & 13.51\% & 118 & 12.10\% & 21 & 2.15\% \\ \hline \multicolumn{9}{c}{Gross tonnage} \\ \hline Less than 300 tons & 512 & 52.51\% & 15 & 40.54\% & 512 & 52.51\% & 370 & 37.95\% \\ \hline
300 Ton to 500 tons & 261 & 26.77\% & 6 & 16.22\% & 261 & 26.77\% & 212 & 21.74\% \\ \hline More than 500 tons & 202 & 20.72\% & 16 & 43.24\% & 202 & 20.72\% & 393 & 40.31\% \\ \hline \multicolumn{9}{c}{Passenger capacity} \\ \hline Less than 200 people & 353 & 36.21\% & 12 & 32.43\% & 355 & 36.41\% & 280 & 28.72\% \\ \hline
200 to 400 people & 373 & 38.26\% & 9 & 24.32\% & 374 & 38.36\% & 338 & 34.67\% \\ \hline More than 400 people & 249 & 25.54\% & 16 & 43.24\% & 246 & 25.23\% & 357 & 36.62\% \\ \hline \multicolumn{9}{c}{Number of port calls per sea route} \\ \hline Less than 3 & 230 & 23.59\% & 7 & 18.92\% & 230 & 23.59\% & 192 & 19.69\% \\ \hline
3 to 5 & 478 & 49.03\% & 20 & 54.05\% & 478 & 49.03\% & 507 & 52.00\% \\ \hline More than 5 & 267 & 27.38\% & 10 & 27.03\% & 267 & 27.38\% & 276 & 28.31\% \\ \hline \multicolumn{9}{c}{Operating minutes per sea route} \\ \hline Less than 60 & 300 & 30.77\% & 18 & 48.65\% & 300 & 30.77\% & 386 & 39.59\% \\ \hline
60 to 120 & 288 & 29.54\% & 12 & 32.43\% & 288 & 29.54\% & 410 & 42.05\% \\ \hline More than 120 & 387 & 39.69\% & 7 & 18.92\% & 387 & 39.69\% & 179 & 18.36\% \\ \hline \multicolumn{9}{c}{Number of operations per year} \\ \hline Less than 800 & 347 & 35.59\% & 7 & 18.92\% & 347 & 35.59\% & 139 & 14.26\% \\ \hline
800 to 1600 & 257 & 26.36\% & 5 & 13.51\% & 257 & 26.36\% & 167 & 17.13\% \\ \hline More than 1600 & 371 & 38.05\% & 25 & 67.57\% & 371 & 38.05\% & 669 & 68.62\% \\ \hline \multicolumn{9}{c}{Regional sea route} \\ \hline D sea routes & 103 & 10.56\% & 8 & 21.62\% & 103 & 10.56\% & 314 & 32.21\% \\ \hline Q sea routes & 37 & 3.79\% & 1 & 2.70\% & 37 & 3.79\% & 1 & 0.10\% \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 7: Characteristic distribution of the extracted variables in the Data U set. Secondly, the characteristics of the MTSA-related route information used for testing based on the trained model to predict the probability of MTSA-related accidents were as follows: The annual sailing frequency, which exceeded 1600 voyages, accounted for 37.62%, indicating a relatively high frequency of voyages. Voyages covering a distance of less than 50 km annually constituted 55.45%, indicating the prevalence of short-distance voyages. Furthermore, voyages with a duration exceeding 2 h (120 min) per leg accounted for 41.58%. From these data, it can be inferred that although the sailing distance may be short, the duration of the voyages is often considerable.