# Monitoring Water Area Dynamics in Kashgar (2003-2023) Using Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data
## 3 Results and Analysis
### Spatial Patterns of Water Area Changes in the Kashgar Region  
Figure 6 reveals distinct regional variations in the spatial distribution of water bodies across Kashgar. A high density of large lakes is observed in the southwest, whereas a mixture of large and small lakes characterizes the northeast and desert interior. These two regions are interconnected by a major river system. Given the abundance of lakes within the study area, kernel density analysis was employed to characterize the spatial distribution patterns of water bodies in Kashgar. The findings are presented below. Figure 7 illustrates distinct regional variations in the spatial distribution of water bodies across the Kashgar region. While rivers traverse the northeast and southwest, lakes exhibit clear clustering patterns in the west, south, and northeast. Weaker clustering is observed in the central and western desert hinterlands and the northwest, whereas other regions lack discernible lake clustering. The spatial dynamics of water bodies in Kashgar exhibit considerable complexity, with distinct trends in area change observed across different water body types. Recognizing that long-term time series are essential to capture the nuances of water body spatial change, this study employed a decadal cycle to extract water body information for Kashgar in 2003, 2013, and 2023 for comparative analysis. The findings are presented in the accompanying figure. Figure 8 illustrates pronounced interannual variability in the spatial distribution of water bodies within the Kashgar region. Between 2003 and 2013, a notable increase in both the number and area of lakes was observed in the western and southern portions of the region, whereas lakes in the western and northern areas exhibited a slight decline in extent. From 2013 to 2023, a significant reduction in both the number and area of lakes in the west  
Figure 6: Spatial distribution of water bodies in the Kashgar region. Figure 7: Kernel density analysis of water body distribution in the Kashgar region. and south was evident, accompanied by a downward trend in riverine area. Conversely, the central and northern regions experienced an increase in both the number and area of lakes, potentially attributable to the formation of ephemeral lakes due to river desiccation. Overall, the total water body area in Kashgar exhibited an initial increase followed by a subsequent decrease between 2003 and 2023. Figure 9 depicts the spatial distribution of the permanent and seasonal water bodies in the Kashgar region. Both types exhibit a dispersed pattern, occurring in the southwestern mountainous area, central, northern, and western portions of the study area. Seasonal water bodies are predominantly located in proximity to permanent water bodies, suggesting a well-connected hydrological cycle and widespread distribution of aquatic features such as rivers and lakes. The water bodies in the southern mountainous regions display seasonal fluctuations, potentially linked to glacial melt driven by rising temperatures. This study conducted a decadal analysis of permanent and seasonal water bodies in the Kashgar region, extracting data for 2003, 2013, and 2023. The findings are presented in Figure 10.  
Figure 10 illustrates pronounced interannual variability in the spatial distribution of permanent and seasonal water bodies within the Kashgar region. Between 2003 and 2013, a notable increase in the extent of permanent water bodies was observed in the northwestern and central portions, accompanied by a significant reduction in the seasonal water body area. Conversely, the permanent water bodies in the south exhibited a slight decline, while the seasonal water bodies showed a slight increase. From 2013 to 2023, the central permanent water body area decreased substantially, whereas the seasonal water  
Figure 8: Temporal evolution of water bodies in the Kashgar region. Figure 9: Spatial distribution of permanent and seasonal water bodies in Kashgar. body area increased significantly.