However, these studies frequently concentrate on particular field survey samples, which may not accurately reflect the impact of abandonment on food production over larger regions. On the other hand, cropland compensation generally exerts a positive influence on regional food production. From 2002 to 2019, the total area of compensated farmland reached 27,900 km\({}^{2}\), significantly alleviating the negative effects of non-agriculturalization and cropland abandonment [18]. Nonetheless, some research suggests that cropland compensation in China's mountainous regions has intensified non-food production. Up to 16% of compensated cropland is used for non-food purposes [19]. These studies primarily assess the quality and efficiency of the requisition-compensation balance of cropland. They provide limited quantification of the food production capacity of the newly added cropland. Overall, previous studies have explored the effects of the cropland use transition on food production from various perspectives, such as horizontal measurement and driving mechanisms, forming a rich theoretical foundation [20; 21; 22]. However, these studies have lacked a thorough assessment and systematic calculation of the overall impact on food security, focusing instead on single aspects or types of the cropland use transition. They have not clarified which types of the cropland use transition primarily threaten regional food production. Although some studies have quantified the effects of non-agriculturalization, marginalization, and non-grain on GPP in the process of urbanization in China [23], they have overlooked the impact of afforestation on returned cropland, which is a significant ecological project over a certain period. Afforestation on returned cropland contributes as much as 33% to changes in cropland use. Additionally, cropland compensation has not been included in the GPP calculation framework [24]. Furthermore, many studies have used static cross-sectional data on cropland use, failing to accurately depict the spatiotemporal trends in food production [25; 26]. Therefore, this study uses a long-time series of the cropland use datasets to systematically reveal the impact and spatial heterogeneity of various types of the cropland use transition on food production. It also takes into account the unique characteristics of rapid population growth and economic development in the study area to further explore the relationship between population size, economic development level, and food production. Guangdong Province is currently actively constructing the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, intending to establish a world-class bay area and a premier city cluster. In the future, Guangdong Province's economy and population are expected to experience a second phase of rapid growth. Additionally, the proportion of agricultural employment has dropped from 70% in the early days of reform and opening up to 10% in 2020. A large number of people have shifted to non-agricultural activities, leading to further changes in cropland use. Therefore, exploring the impact of the cropland use transition on food production is particularly important to ensure regional food self-sufficiency. The objectives of this study include the following: (1) to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of non-agriculturalization, cropland abandonment, and cropland compensation, and reveal their impact on food production and spatial heterogeneity; (2) to explore whether the loss and increase of food production caused by these cropland use transitions can be balanced; (3) to reveal the intrinsic relationship between population size, economic development level, and food production within the study area. The findings from this study can inform the development of targeted and nuanced cropland protection policies and explore effective paths for increasing food production.