## 5 Discussion of the Australian HSR Risks
### Summary of Recommendations
The analysis presented in this research highlights the significant advantages that a Sydney to Newcastle HSR alignment could bring to the residents of New South Wales and the broader economy;
* **Industry Implications:** The forthcoming feasibility study by the HSRA should emphasise these RED benefits, framing the project primarily as an economic development initiative rather than merely a transportation project. Clearly communicating these benefits is essential for garnering support and ensuring the study's success. **Recommendation 2: Estimate Delivery Costs and Timelines Accurately for the HSR Project**  
* **Justification:** As presented in Section 5.2.1, mega projects in Australia often experience significant cost and time overruns, resulting in low confidence in budget forecasts. Accurate cost and time estimations are vital barriers to overcoming project realisation;
* **Industry Implications:** The HSRA should adopt Reference class forecasting to provide more reliable budget and timeline estimates, presenting these as ranges rather than absolutes. Maintaining a fixed scope after project commencement is crucial to avoid unnecessary changes that could inflate costs and extend timelines. Effective supply chain management is also crucial for mitigating cost fluctuations in raw materials. **Recommendation 3: Address Unknown Political Barriers**  
* **Justification:** As presented in Section 5.2.3, political factors are crucial in project approval, especially for public sector projects. The findings indicate that securing political buy-in is essential for advancing the HSR project;
* **Industry Implications:** The project must align with the political timelines of government cycles, typically 4, 8, or 12 years. It is advisable to overestimate required timelines to create a buffer for project execution, increasing the likelihood of success. Engaging with the public to foster support can also enhance governmental commitment, as investing in HSR is driven by national choice. **Recommendation 4: Foster Collaborative Engagement with the Private Sector**  
* **Justification:** As presented in Section 5.3, the government lacks the necessary expertise to deliver the HSR project, making private-sector collaboration crucial for its successful implementation. Engaging the private sector can enhance competition and excitement around the project;
* **Industry Implications:** The HSRA report should consider an Early Tender Involvement (ETI) process, which would allow private sector input in the design requirements for the HSR alignment tender. This collaboration can lead to more competitive bids and better project outcomes. Additionally, a tender reimbursement model could incentivize firms to invest time in detailed tender submissions, fostering innovation and efficiency. Furthermore, a detailed tender will likely provide a more accurate estimate of the actual cost and time. **Recommendation 5: Develop a Framework to Upskill the Australian Workforce**  
* **Justification:** As presented in Section 5.3, Australia currently lacks the necessary expertise to design and implement an HSR alignment, with the Sydney to Newcastle route being particularly complex. Upskilling the workforce is essential for successfully delivering this project and future HSR initiatives;
* **Industry Implications**: The business case must outline a sustainable approach to workforce development, ensuring Australia can competently deliver HSR projects in the long term. This research provides a potential framework for effectively upskilling engineers, as illustrated in Figure 14.