###### Abstract  
Growing numbers of electric vehicles (EVs) as well as controversial discussions on cost, scarcity and the environmental and social sustainability of primary raw materials that are needed for battery production together emphasize the necessity for battery recycling in the future. Nonetheless, the market for battery recycling is not fully understood and captured in data today. The underlying reasons are found in both market size and various parameters such as the battery-technology mix, the resulting material demand and expected battery lifetime. In consequence, the question of when secondary-material availability from battery recycling is sufficient to satisfy the global cobalt demand for EV applications has not yet been clarified. To address this question, this study estimates the global battery raw-material demand together with the expected amount of the recycled materials by 2035, taking into account a number of parameters affecting future battery material flows. While focusing on cobalt, nickel, lithium, and manganese, the results indicate that the global cobalt demand can be satisfied from secondary sources by the early 2030s in three out of four different technology forecast scenarios. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis highlights the amount of waste occurring during battery production and battery lifetime as the main drivers for secondary-material availability by 2035.  
b 2022 2  
in the scope of the present study. In many cases, the extraction of materials is linked to environmental impacts on local ecosystems, e.g., water use for the extraction of Li from brines or hard-rock mining, as well as soil contamination related to the high-pressure acid leaching for Ni extraction. Elsewhere, studies referring to social risks in relation to battery raw materials state that almost two thirds of the Co extraction required for batteries comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and can entail risks of child labor or artisanal small-scale mining [7]. Furthermore, some materials are subject to ongoing price fluctuations, showing frequent peaks associated with the increase in EV sales volumes. As stated in an EU study, price volatility from 03/17 to 02/18 has been significant for battery raw materials: 21.7% for Co, 17.2% for Li, and 22.2% for Ni [8]. This is mainly due to the long timeframes needed to increase raw-material production, combined with the limited number of mining companies in control of market supply. Consequently, both price volatility and availability are key factors for the criticality of battery raw materials. This is similar to platinum in fuel-cell vehicles [9]. In order to address the abovementioned challenges, battery recycling is considered a strategy to establishing an increasing supply of secondary raw materials for battery production, thereby minimizing the need for primary raw materials. Recycling is thereby part of the ambition of implementing a circular economy (CE) for batteries. The concept of a CE has established the principle of \"keeping products, components, and materials at their highest utility and value at all times\" in scientific sustainability research and in industry [10,11]. In this regard, batteries and vehicles are mentioned as a key product value chain in the EU Circular Economy Action Plan 2020, indicating that political action towards waste prevention, reuse, and recycling of batteries is needed [11]. At the same time, legislation encourages automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEM) to actively engage in the EoL management of batteries as part of their ambitions towards extended producer responsibility (EPR) and beyond minimum regulatory requirements [12,13]. Driven by the notion of a CE as a vessel for the sustainability performance of products, reduced material consumption, and economic profitability [14], several companies have started to investigate the benefits of circular strategies for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) [15].