## 5 Discussion
### Agricultural Land Change Dynamics  
The results that we obtained from a variety of years were utilized in the analysis of crop type transitions based on the probability of change dynamics. Most cropland changes were found from 2016-2021, followed by 2011-2016, 2001-2006 and 2006-2011. The interviewed farmers and local governments confirmed the yielded results. In order to better understand the agricultural land change in the Chi River basin, the critical drivers of crop change transitions over 20 years (i.e., four 5-year periods) were analyzed. From 2001 to 2006, there were significant agricultural changes with growing land primarily stocked by cassava, sugarcane and para rubber for three main reasons:  
* The irrigated crop plantation system was fully supported by the governmental sector;
* Agricultural industries needed crop production demands, which led to increased prices for specific crops such cassava and sugarcane;
* The government policies aimed to extend crop cultivation areas, as well as support capital for the farmers for land management. Therefore, the dominant crop type transitions were rice to sugarcane and cassava during this period. From 2006-2011, increasing crop areas were identified for cassava and rice, as previously studied of [PERSON], et al. [11], indicating the main key drivers were:  
* The government encouraged farmers to warranty a stable price for economic crop production;
* The production demands were increased due to the rapid expansion of agricultural industries in this region. At the same time, other crop classes' changes to cassava were the major change during this period. From 2011-2016, rice and cassava cultivation areas have been decreased. In contrast, para rubber and sugarcane have been increased, which is caused by two main reasons:  
* The international para rubber demand was increased, as well as the government support for farmers for enhancing supply of para rubber production;
* The unsuitable areas of rice production have been promoted by the government to sugarcane cultivations. As a result of the government policies, para rubber and sugarcane prices increased during this period, when compared to the past 10 years. This is in line of findings by [PERSON] [13], highlighting that sugarcane production provided the main income for local farmers in this region. During the recent period (2016-2021), cassava and para rubber as the most significant crops with increasing areas, while rice areas dropped. The important key drivers for crop changes were:  
* The sugarcane cultivation was promoted by the government to replace unsuitable rice production. * The farmers were encouraged to produce sugarcane through financial loans and capital support from the sugar mills. * Farmers' incomes were stabilized with balanced production by contract farming. * The government policies deal with young, smart farmer groups to learning new technology and address a lack of agricultural labor, while also increasing production and productivity per area. As a result of the important key crop drivers, more than 40% of the rice areas were changed to important crops such as sugarcane, followed by cassava and para rubber areas. This is consistent with [PERSON], et al. [11], who showed that rice areas mainly changed to other crops. In addition, [PERSON] [13] described that decreasing areas with rice was directly influenced by government policy and price stability. As discussed above, during four 5-year periods, the rice was changed to the other important crop types. This finding is in the line with our classified maps, indicating agricultural changes. [PERSON], et al. [11] also mentioned that the rice areas rapidly dropped, which directly related to government policy. In addition, from the short interviews of 20 farmers, it was found that the key socio-economic drivers leading to agricultural land transitions were crop prices, stable income and relatable agricultural policy.