# Bike-Sharing Travel Demand Forecasting via Travel Environment-Based Modeling
## 7 Conclusions  
This study, for the first time, forecasts bike-sharing demand based on non-motorized transport facility construction across the entire urban district road network. We used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method to evaluate the traffic facilities on each road in Shijingshan District. We divided the city network into 1323 zones to analyze traffic development. Then, we employed the MGWR-based model to forecast bike-sharing demand from the perspective of the trip environment and infrastructure. The main conclusions are summarized as follows:  
1. The model in this paper predicts bicycle travel demand based on the construction of non-motorized facilities in either the whole area or local areas. This provides urban managers with important information for optimizing non-motorized facilities.
2. The MGWR model is able to reflect spatial variations and differences in the scale and degree of influence of each factor, enabling a more accurate prediction of riding demand in refined areas. The goodness of fit of the MGWR model is noticeably higher than the other two models.
3. The more comprehensive the non-motorized transport facilities system on urban roads, the more conducive it is in promoting the growth of bike-sharing travel demand. However, the impact coefficients of non-motorized transport facilities improvements vary across different regions. Relevant departments or agencies can enhance bike-sharing travel demand by improving facilities in key areas. Generally speaking, compared with other types of areas, improving the facilities surrounding residential areas, commercial districts, and public transportation stations can achieve a more significant increase in bike-sharing travel demand.
4. Based on the experimental results, non-motorized transport facilities in intersection areas exhibit higher significance and impact coefficients in the model compared with those in roadway segments. This underscores the fact that improving non-motorized transport facilities within intersection zones has a more pronounced effect on promoting shared bike utilization. Consequently, when enhancing non-motorized transport facilities, priority should be given to upgrading those in intersection areas. As for roadway non-motorized transport facilities, lane width stands as a paramount indicator, and relevant authorities should adjust the widths of bicycle lanes in different regions to accommodate the unique characteristics of each area.  
Conceptualization, Z.W.; Methodology, Z.W.; Software, Y.W.; Validation, Q.Z. and W.X.; Formal analysis, Y.W.; Investigation, Z.W.; Resources, W.X.; Writing--original draft, Z.W.; Writing--review & editing, Q.Z.; Supervision, L.W.; Project administration, Q.Z. and L.W. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.  
This work was supported by the Yuxiu Innovation Project of NCUT (Project No. 2024 NCU-TYCX108) and the Beijing Natural Science Foundation [grant numbers 4214070].  
Not applicable.  
The data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author. The data are not publicly available due to privacy.  
The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.