# Resilience Assessment for the Northern Sea Route Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network
## 3 Model Established for NSR Resilience Measurement
### Resilience Measurement Using the Fuzzy Bayesian Network
#### 3.4.1 Reliability Quantification for the Employed Experts  
Expert elicitation is useful and valuable in most situations when available resources are lacking or limited by physical circumstances [72], and the Arctic NSR is one of these cases. However, the competence of the employed experts is essential for scientific conclusions. According to the study of [34], the selection criteria used for capable experts in this research can be described as follows: \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c} \hline \hline
**Features** & **Description** \\ \hline Rescue and anti-pollution facilities are utilized to restore the shipping capacity of the NSR after natural disasters and accidents. Currently, there are three rescue and research centers established temporally along the NSR from July to October. In addition, the rescue and anti-pollution capacities of the ports (20 approximately) along the NSR need to be improved for the quick restoration of the damaged route. \\ \hline Ship repair facility & Ship repair facilities, such as yards, docks, gate operations, cranes, and warehouses, are essential for vessels that experience hull damage, machinery malfunctions, and propeller damage. Notably, the restorative capacity aimed at damaged ship repair will be limited if the stakeholders have little interest in investment. \\ \hline Human-based resources & The restorative capacity associated with human-based resources includes service restoration and technology restoration, which are substantial parts of the post-disaster strategy. Restoration may include communication, navigation, pilot service, ice-breaker assistance, and weather and hydrology information systems. \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 6: Restorative capacity of NSR resilience. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c} \hline \hline
**Features** & **Description** \\ \hline Preparedness for arctic & Before navigating into ice-covered waters, vessels must be fully prepared, including obtaining extra fuel reserves, psychological preparation, understanding all the regulations that must be observed, preparing for low temperatures, etc. ; in case of a disruption, the vessel can make some changes based on their preparations to adapt to the new situation caused by the disruption [70]. \\ \hline Arctic communication & Arctic communication, including radar, radio, and International Maritime Satellite Organization (INMARSAT) communication, can coordinate operations from ship to ship and ship to icebreaker to adapt to the harsh environment and sailing conditions along the NSR [67]; additionally, Arctic communication helps vessels in the NSR region get assistance and guidance during disruptions, thus making risks controllable. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c} \hline \hline
**Features** & **Description** \\ \hline Preparedness for arctic & Before navigating into ice-covered waters, vessels must be fully prepared, including obtaining extra fuel reserves, psychological preparation, understanding all the regulations that must be observed, preparing for low temperatures, etc.; in case of a disruption, the vessel can make some changes based on their preparations to adapt to the new situation caused by the disruption [70]. \\ \hline Arctic communication & Arctic communication, including radar, radio, and International Maritime Satellite Organization (INMARSAT) communication, can coordinate operations from ship to ship and ship to icebreaker to adapt to the harsh environment and sailing conditions along the NSR [67]; additionally, Arctic communication helps vessels in the NSR region get assistance and guidance during disruptions, thus making risks controllable. \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 5: Cont. * A heterogeneous group of experts is usually preferred to a homogenous group.