## 3 Materials and Methods
### Database
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l r r} \hline \hline
**Data** & **Values at Baseline** & **Values at First Year** \\ \hline
**Demographic** & & \\ Age at enrollment & 60.73 \(\pm\) 9.79 & \\ Years of education & 15.54 \(\pm\) 2.91 & \\ Sex (female/male) & (\%) 33.99/66.01 & \\ Family history of PD (1 st/ & (\%) 87.75/12.25 & \\ No 1 st degree family with PD) & & \\ Duration of PD from diagnosis & 6.43 \(\pm\) 6.41 & \\ to enrollment (months) & (\%) 95.25/0.79/ & \\ Race (white/black/ & 1.98 /1.98 & \\ asian/other) & 21.91 \(\pm\) 8.08 & \\ \hline
**Olfactory** & & \\ UPSIT score & 21.91 \(\pm\) 8.08 & \\ \hline
**Motor** (in OFF stage) & & \\ MDS-UPDRS I, II, and III score & 30.86 \(\pm\) 13.06 & 36.63 \(\pm\) 15.54 \\ TD-PIGD classification & (\%) & (\%) \\ (TD/PIGD/Indeterminate) & 70.75/18.18/11.07 & 67.19/22.53/10.28 \\ HY Stage (1/2) & (\%) 50.99/49.01 & (\%) 31.62/64.82 \\ \hline
**Sleep** & & \\ RBDSQ score & 3.99 \(\pm\) 2.66 & 3.9 \(\pm\) 2.75 \\ ESS score & 5.75 \(\pm\) 3.39 & 6.15 \(\pm\) 4.07 \\ \hline
**Autonomic** & & \\ SCOPA-AUT score & 9.32 \(\pm\) 5.94 & 10.63 \(\pm\) 6.35 \\ \hline
**Cognitive** & & \\ MoCA score & 27.23 \(\pm\) 2.24 & 26.64 \(\pm\) 2.59 \\ (adjusted for education) & & \\ HVLT-R immediate/ & 24.88 \(\pm\) 4.78 & 24.06 \(\pm\) 5.15 \\ total recall & & \\ HVLT-R discrimination & 9.81 \(\pm\) 2.48 & 9.85 \(\pm\) 2.45 \\ recognition & 0.87 \(\pm\) 0.19 & 0.86 \(\pm\) 0.19 \\ BJLOT score & 13.00 \(\pm\) 2.02 & 12.58 \(\pm\) 2.22 \\ SFT score & 49.19 \(\pm\) 11.24 & 49.42 \(\pm\) 11.15 \\ LNS score & 10.76 \(\pm\) 2.61 & 10.66 \(\pm\) 2.42 \\ SDMT score & 42.00 \(\pm\) 9.39 & 41.84 \(\pm\) 9.43 \\ \hline
**Neuropsychiatric** & & \\ STAI score & 65.68 \(\pm\) 17.78 & 64.82 \(\pm\) 18.23 \\ GDS score & 2.30 \(\pm\) 2.44 & 2.46 \(\pm\) 2.78 \\ QUIP score & 0.31 \(\pm\) 0.65 & 0.19 \(\pm\) 0.50 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular} The variables used are described and grouped by domains, and their values at baseline and the first year are given (mean \(\pm\) sd in the case of quantitative variables and percentages in the case of qualitative variables). Abbreviations: PD = Parkinson’s disease, UPSIT = University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test, MDS-UPDRS = Movement Disorder Society-Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale, TD = tremor dominant, PIGD = postural instability and gait difficulty, HY = Hoehn and Yahr, RBDSQ = Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Behavior Disorder Screening Questionnaire, ESS = Epworth Sleepiness Scale, SOPA-AUT = Scale for Outcomes in Parkinson’s Disease-Autonomic, MoCA = Montreal Cognitive Assessment, HVLT-R = Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised, BJLOT = Benton Judgement of line Orientation Test, SFT = Semantic Fluency Test, LNS = Letter Number Sequencing, SDMT = Symbol Digit Modalities Test, STAI = State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, GDS = Geriatric Depression Scale, QUIP = Questionnaire for Impulsive-Compulsive Disorders.  
\end{table} 
Table 1: Demographics and clinical characteristics of PD patients. The PPMI database contains 693 patients with PD, 395 of whom have idiopathic PD. The database was cleaned based on various criteria to ensure the reliability and accuracy of the predictive models. Firstly, only tests performed within a maximum of 6 months from baseline were considered, resulting in the removal of two patients. This was done to ensure the data were collected during the same patient phase, as some tests were performed during the screening phase rather than at baseline. Secondly, for the first-year data, only tests performed within a maximum of 3 months were considered, minimizing variability in the timing of the assessments and leading to the exclusion of 51 patients. Thirdly, patients with missing values in year 4 or 5 for the MoCA variable were removed, resulting in the exclusion of 82 patients. This was necessary to ensure complete data for reliable model training and testing.