# Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 in Kuwait Using Compartmental and Logistic Regression Models
## 4 Discussion
The model based on actual infected cases forecasts a maximum of 4244 cases while the worst-case scenario reached 17,684 cumulative cases with \(R_{o}=2.5\). The reduction of the predicted peak values highlights the efficiency of rigorous efforts in the epidemic containment measures of the government of Kuwait. Due to the uncertainty in modeling the spread of COVID-19, further simulations were introduced using a stochastic SIR ICM approach. The simulations illustrated the effect of varying the number of the infected and susceptible populations simultaneously with a variable number of contact rates and infectivity. The results showed that reducing the number of contacts and complying with the social distancing regulations would significantly reduce the epidemic peak value. Furthermore, it is in accord with the several intervention measures taken by the government of Kuwait. However, a high stake in preventing the spread and controlling the epidemic size relies on the adherence of the population with the intervention measures and health regulations. Therefore, it is critical to raise awareness among the population about the importance of complying with nonpharmaceutical interventions. 19 April 2020. The reproduction number was estimated based on the confirmed cumulative cases and was found to be 2.2. The study aimed to investigate and assess the effectiveness of preventive measures of the government of Kuwait to control the spread of COVID-19. The study assessed the impact of the repatriation plan on the current situation. The reported results have generally shown that the intervention measures are efficient in containing the spread of COVID-19 in Kuwait with the assumption that the population comply with these measures. However, a lean adherence to these measures would result in an increase in the epidemic size and spread. The study further considered the variation of population size and contact rates between individuals. The results assert that high contact rates among the population would significantly increase the epidemic peak value and more strict intervention measures must be incorporated, such as lockdown and contact tracing. A key priority is to raise the awareness of the population about the significant impact of social distancing and population behavior, in terms of contacts, in containing the spread of COVID-19 in Kuwait. In addition, the study suggests that these measures should be extended further to counteract the impact of the repatriation plan. Finally, the study demonstrated the vital implication on the future practice of the government of Kuwait to integrate mathematical predictive models as significant indicators in containing epidemics and to assess the policies in a quantitative approach. Conceptualization, A.M.A. and A.I.A. ; methodology, A.M.A. and A.I.A. ; software, A.M.A. ; validation, A.M.A., A.I.A., M.R.A., and S.N.A. ; formal analysis, A.M.A. and A.I.A. ; investigation, A.M.A. and A.I.A. ; resources, A.M.A., A.I.A., M.R.A., and S.N.A. ; data curation, A.M.A. and A.I.A. ; writing--original draft preparation, A.M.A., A.I.A., M.R.A., and S.N.A. ; writing--review and editing, A.M.A., A.I.A., M.R.A., and S.N.A. ; visualization, A.M.A., A.I.A., M.R.A., and S.N.A. ; All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. This research received no external funding. The authors declare no conflict of interest.