# Estimating the Human Error Probability during Lifeboat Drills
## 1 Introduction
### Lifeboat Drill-Related Accidents  
Notwithstanding, many serious (and fatal) accidents occur during safety drills onboard ships, especially during drills involving the movement of a lifeboat from its stowed position. For example, in December 2020, on the bulk carrier Blue Bosporus, during a free-fall lifeboat drill at an anchorage in English Bay, the slings holding the lifeboat failed, causing the lifeboat to fall approximately 14 m into the water. Two crew members inside the lifeboat, both of whom were unsecured at the time, were seriously injured and taken to the hospital [4]. According to the Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) report of a lifeboat accident in March 2021, the RRS Sir [PERSON] port lifeboat fell into the water while the crew was performing a lifeboat drill with three crew members inside. The investigation found that a critical interlock device on the lifeboat davits had heavily corroded due to a lack of maintenance [5]. In November 2013, during a lifeboat drill on the Thomson Majesty in Spain, a lifeboat unexpectedly fell from the ship. It capsized in the water, killing five crew members and injuring three more [6]. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) realised the danger of lifeboat drills, which are, instead of serving as a means to save lives, endangering them. Therefore, to prevent lifeboat incidents, the IMO issued guidance that details measures to prevent unwanted incidents and provides adequate maintenance procedures that should be closely followed by ships' crews [7]. Some of the most commonly recognised hazards during lifeboat drills are falls, entanglement, and stress. The IMO emphasised that injuries or fatalities connected to lifeboat drill accidents are unacceptable. As the primary causes for these accidents, the Maritime Safety Committee (MSC), at its 81 st session, recognised the following [7]:  
* The failure of the on-load release appliance;
* The unintentional usage of the on-load release appliance;
* Inadequate or lack of maintenance;
* Failure in communications;
* Lack of familiarisation;
* Unsafe practises during lifeboat drills. Although many regulations and recommendations have already been implemented on ships and the IMO continuously issues various regulations and guidelines related to increasing safety when handling lifeboats, accidents still occur, causing crew injuries and loss of lives on ships. Although nowadays, modern ships have advanced navigation systems and a handful of automated processes, the human element remains a critical and ever-present factor and a possible root cause of unwanted accidents at sea. The human tendency to make mistakes and the unpredictable and stressful marine environment can increase the consequences of such mistakes. The MAIB Safety Study Report, which analysed lifeboat accidents from 1989 to 1999, shows that the failure of on-load release hooks was a major cause of these accidents. According to the report, in 115 accidents, 87 crew members suffered serious or minor injuries, and 12 fatalities occurred, representing 16% of total fatalities on merchant ships worldwide [8]. The International Trade Association for Ship Management Industry research, InterManager, stated that 420 fatalities at sea and 346 serious and 116 minor injuries since 1981 involved lifeboats. Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to analyse raw data from InterManager's lifeboat accident database, Lloyd Register (LR) found that 23.8% of reported lifeboat accidents were due to equipment-related issues [9]. Another finding is that one in every five accidents involved the boat/crew falling into the water, while one in every thirteen accidents happened when the lifeboat was secured [9].