###### Abstract  
The variance \(\kappa_{1}\) of the natural time analysis of earthquake catalogs was proposed in 2005 as an order parameter for seismicity, whose fluctuations proved, in 2011, to be minimized a few months before the strongest mainshock when studying the earthquakes in a given area. After the introduction of earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns, in 2012, the study of their higher order cores revealed, in 2019, the selection of appropriate areas in which the precursory minima \(\beta_{min}\) of the fluctuations \(\beta\) of the seismicity order parameter \(\kappa_{1}\) could be observed up to six months before all strong earthquakes above a certain threshold. The eastern Mediterranean region was studied in 2019, where all earthquakes of magnitude \(M\geq 7.1\) were found to be preceded by \(\beta_{min}\) without any false alarm. Combining these results with the method of nowcasting earthquakes, introduced in 2016, for seismic risk estimation, here, we show that the epicenter of an impending strong earthquake can be estimated. This is achieved by employing--at the time of observing the \(\beta_{min}\)--nowcasting earthquakes in a square lattice grid in the study area and by averaging, self-consistently, the results obtained for the earthquake potential score. This is understood in the following context: the minimum \(\beta_{min}\) is ascertained to almost coincide with the onset of Seismic Electric Signals activity, which is accompanied by the development of long range correlations between earthquake magnitudes in the area that is a candidate for a mainshock. e 2021 2021 28 October  
phase transition, or with a mean-field spinodal [76] that can be understood as a line of critical points. A first-order phase transition (see, e.g., [78] and references therein) has also been proposed as an alternative. In phase transitions, the new phase corresponds to the mainshock and a quantity-termed order parameter is required to correctly identify the new phase. [PERSON] and [PERSON] [79] state: \"To describe quantitatively the change in the structure of the body when it passes through the phase transition point, we can define a quantity \(\eta\), called the order parameter, in such a way that it takes non-zero (positive or negative) values in the unsymmetrical phase and is zero in the symmetrical phase\". Along these lines, [PERSON] et al. [23] proposed the variance \(\kappa_{1}\) of the NTA of EQ catalogs as an order parameter for seismicity. As such, it is non-zero before the mainshock, falling abruptly to zero upon its occurrence (see, e.g., the last points in Figure 6 by [PERSON] et al. [80]) and its scaled distribution exhibits a behavior similar to that of other equilibrium and non-equilibrium critical systems [7; 21; 23; 28; 81]. Later, it was shown that, when studying the EQs in a given area, the fluctuations \(\beta\) of this order parameter were minimized a few months before the strongest mainshock [82], and the experimental results revealed that such minima occurred almost simultaneously with the observation of Seismic Electric Signals (SES) activities [83], which are series of low frequency (\(f\leq\)1 Hz) electric signals that precede strong EQs [84; 85; 86; 87; 88; 89; 90]. Subsequent studies have shown that such minima are observed before strong EQs, both regionally [29] and globally [91]. These minima were found to be statistically significant precursors of EQs [92; 93; 94]. Furthermore, [PERSON] et al. [95] showed that regional \(\beta_{min}\) in Japan is observed when long-range correlations develop between EQ magnitudes, which has also been verified in two recent strong EQs in the Americas [40; 96]. In recent decades, the theory of networks [97; 98; 99; 100; 101] has triggered many applications in seismicity (see, e.g., [47; 60; 102; 103; 104; 105; 106; 107; 108]), which showed that the EQ network properties may reveal a seismic hazard [109; 110; 111; 112; 113; 114]. [PERSON] et al.