## 3 Results
### Land Use Changes for Lehigh Valley  
#### 3.3.1 Experiment 1 Lehigh Valley: Converting Lawn to Forest  
Experiment 1 (L2F) involved the creation of new forests from areas that were previously lawns. Results are shown as percent differences from the control (Table 3), as displayed by bars (Figure 2), time series (Figure 3), values for different PFTs (Table 4), and maps (Figures S2 and S4-S7). By the end of the century, results show a significant increase in vegetation carbon by 5.7% and a decrease in soil carbon by 8.1%. The soil carbon also decreases in all cases (Figure 2, Table 4a). There are nonsignificant increases in the carbon fluxes and decreases in all the water variables. Through time, only the vegetation carbon increases for the 25 and 50% cases and all the soil carbon decreases are generally outside the range of interannual variability (IAV) of the control, while there is not a significant increase in cumulated NCE (Figure 3). \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Cohort** & **VegC** & **SoilC** & **GPP** & **NPP** & **NEP** & **NCE** & **Soil Moist** & **ET** & **Runoff** \\ \hline Impervious & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.05 & 0.00 & 0.35 \\ \hline Barren & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.01 & 0.09 & 0.08 \\ \hline Forest & 35.61 & 10.36 & 3.19 & 1.63 & 0.13 & 0.13 & 0.80 & 1.21 & 0.76 \\ \hline Pasture & 0.19 & 0.39 & 0.29 & 0.16 & 0.04 & 0.00 & 0.10 & 0.18 & 0.04 \\ \hline Lawn & 0.30 & 3.10 & 0.33 & 0.15 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.14 & 0.19 & 0.12 \\ \hline Cropland & 0.03 & 0.70 & 0.21 & 0.12 & 0.09 & \(-\)0.01 & 0.08 & 0.22 & 0.19 \\ \hline Average & 36.14 & 14.55 & 4.03 & 2.07 & 0.27 & 0.13 & 1.18 & 1.88 & 1.53 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 3: Control results for base conditions for the historic period 2020–2099. Vegetation carbon (VEGC) and soil carbon (SOLC) are TgC, GPP, NPP, NEP, and NCE are TgCyr\({}^{-1}\), soil moisture is \(10^{12}\) mm H\({}_{2}\)O, and evapotranspiration and runoff are \(10^{12}\) mm H\({}_{2}\)Oyr\({}^{-1}\). \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Cohort** & **VegC** & **SoilC** & **GPP** & **NPP** & **NCEP** & **NCE** & **Soil Moist** & **ET** & **Runoff** \\ \hline Impervious & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.05 & 0.00 & 0.35 \\ \hline Barren & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.01 & 0.09 & 0.08 \\ \hline Forest & 35.61 & 10.36 & 3.19 & 1.63 & 0.13 & 0.13 & 0.80 & 1.21 & 0.76 \\ \hline Pasture & 0.19 & 0.39 & 0.29 & 0.16 & 0.04 & 0.00 & 0.10 & 0.18 & 0.04 \\ \hline Lawn & 0.30 & 3.10 & 0.33 & 0.15 & 0.00 & 0.00 & 0.14 & 0.19 & 0.12 \\ \hline Cropland & 0.03 & 0.70 & 0.21 & 0.12 & 0.09 & \(-\)0.01 & 0.08 & 0.22 & 0.19 \\ \hline Average & 36.14 & 14.55 & 4.03 & 2.07 & 0.27 & 0.13 & 1.18 & 1.88 & 1.53 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 3: Control results for base conditions for the historic period 2020–2099. Vegetation carbon (VEGC) and soil carbon (SOLC) are TgC, GPP, NPP, NEP, and NCE are TgCyr\({}^{-1}\), soil moisture is \(10^{12}\) mm H\({}_{2}\)O, and evapotranspiration and runoff are \(10^{12}\) mm H\({}_{2}\)Oyr\({}^{-1}\). The increasing vegetation carbon throughout the future shows the growth of the forested area over time from the newly created forest cohorts since the climate conditions are the same. Soil carbon decreases with the conversion to forest, however, which is due to the calibrated parameters used to describe the lawn cohort (see Section 4), resulting in higher heterotrophic respiration in those areas when they become newly forested. The largest increases in productivity and carbon storage occur in urban and surrounding areas, as they tend to have more lawns (Figures S2, S4 and 5a).