# Projected Wind Energy Maximum Potential in Lithuania
## 4 Discussion
Although climate models predict an increase in extreme weather events, the results show that the number of days with wind speeds too high for the wind farm has not increased significantly. Other studies have shown similar results; for example, [46] found that the number of days with wind speeds above 20 m/s is projected to decline over the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic, while the number will remain stable for most of continental Europe. However, a slight increase in windy days was detected for the Baltic Sea. It was also revealed that an increase in days per year with wind speeds below 3 m/s would occur for large parts of Europe. Only for the Baltic Sea and some other regions was a decrease in calm days detected [46]. In conclusion, it can be noted that similar trends were found in the present study for Lithuania, as an eastern part of the Baltic region. The analysis of the \"middle of the road,\" or SSP2-4.5 scenario, shows that a changing climate will not significantly impact Lithuania's renewable energy sector. Current renewable energy capacity, which generates around a quarter of the electricity needed, is not sufficient to meet and fulfill our targets [4]. According to the analysis, Lithuania could generate up to almost four times more electricity than it currently needs. Even if not all the available space was filled, Lithuania could become a zero-emission country and trade in green electricity. Table 2 shows the maximum energy values that wind farms could produce if they were to cover the whole of Lithuania, except in unsuitable locations. The values obtained for each model vary significantly. This can be explained by the differences between the models. This would require the use of more models in the study. The significance of the wind energy potential can be compared with the consumption level of the European Union. Electricity consumption in the European Union is 6.2 MWh/per capita [47], and in Lithuania, it is 4182 KWh/per capita [48]. A total of 2865 TWh of electricity was consumed in the European Union [49]. The potential of wind energy in the European Union is estimated at 138,090 TWh by [PERSON] [29], which is almost 50 times the amount of electricity consumed in the EU. Meanwhile, the authors in this investigation have found that the annual potential of wind energy, according to three climate projection models in the 21 st century, is only 3-9 times higher than the amount of electricity consumed. The obtained difference can be explained primarily by the fact that the wind speed in the territory of Lithuania is low compared to most EU countries [50]. Another reason is related to the methodology used to assign the suitable area for wind energy development. Using the wind power regulation map of Lithuania, it was found that 36.7% of the territory is suitable for the installation of wind power plants, while in other studies, the area suitable for wind energy was found to be larger. For example, [PERSON] [32] found that this area was about 42% (Kujawsko-Pomorskie Voivodeship, Poland); and [PERSON] [29] estimated that 45% of the European territory was suitable for the installation of wind farms. The third reason is calculating the amount of energy produced by wind farms. In this work, the wind speed was estimated for each element of the area suitable for wind farms, then the number of wind farms that could be located in that area was evaluated, and then the electricity produced by the farms in that area was estimated. Meanwhile, other authors estimated the average wind speed throughout the country's territory, counted the number of wind plants that can be placed in the permitted territory and then obtained the total wind energy potential. According to the results of this study, as well as in wind atlas [50] show that the wind speed depends quite strongly on the distance to the sea. Since wind energy depends on the cube of wind speed, \(v^{3}\), using the mean wind speed over the entire area can unreasonably increase the total energy potential.