###### Abstract  
There is a dearth of studies characterizing historical sea level variability at the local scale for the islands in the Caribbean. This is due to the lack of reliable long term tide gauge data. There is, however, a significant need for such studies given that small islands are under increasing threat from rising sea levels, storm surges, and coastal flooding due to global warming. The growing length of satellite altimetry records provides a useful alternative to undertake sea level analyses. Altimetry data, spanning 1993-2019, are used herein to explore multi-timescale sea level variability near the south coast of Jamaica, in the northwest Caribbean. Caribbean basin dynamics and largescale forcing mechanisms, which could account for the variability, are also investigated. The results show that the average annual amplitude off the south coast of Jamaica is approximately 10 cm with a seasonal peak during the summer (July-August). The highest annual sea levels occur within the Caribbean storm season, adding to the annual risk. The annual trend over the 27 years is 3.3 \(\pm\) 0.4 mm/yr when adjusted for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), instrumental drift, and accounting for uncertainties. This is comparable to mean global sea level rise, but almost twice the prior estimates for the Caribbean which used altimetry data up to 2010. This suggests an accelerated rate of rise in the Caribbean over the last decade. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and correlation analyses show the long-term trend to be a basin-wide characteristic and linked to warming Caribbean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the period. When the altimetry data are detrended and deseasoned, the leading EOF mode has maximum loadings over the northwest Caribbean, including Jamaica, and exhibits interannual variability which correlates significantly with a tropical Pacific-tropical Atlantic SST gradient index, local wind strength, and the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLIJ). Correlations with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in summer, seen in this and other studies, likely arise through the contribution of the ENSO to the SST gradient index and the ENSO's modulation of the CLIJ peak strength in July. The results demonstrate the usefulness of altimetry data for characterizing sea level risk on various timescales for small islands. They also suggest the potential for developing predictive models geared towards reducing those risks. C aribbean sea level; sea level rise; Jamaica; satellite altimetry; climate change +
Footnote †: journal: Marine Science and Engineering  
Caribbean is significantly underrepresented in ocean research [16; 17], with only a few basin-wide studies and even fewer island-specific studies examining historical sea level change across multi-timescales. The Caribbean's underrepresentation has largely been due to limited tide gauge records of sufficient length, completeness, and spatial coverage [16]. The availability of satellite altimetry since the early 1990s is helping to address the challenge by offering an option for assessing historical sea level change at regional and local scales [18; 19]. For the Caribbean, the availability of altimetry data has resulted in an increased number of SLR studies in recent years--albeit, still too few considering the magnitude of the threat. For relevant examples, see the altimetry-based studies in [16; 17; 20; 21; 22]. These studies have been variously focused, including validating the altimetry data against tide gauge records to show its usefulness for the region, e.g., [16; 22; 23]; establishing long term trends, especially in the context of global trends, e.g., [17; 22; 23]; and examining seasonal to interannual variability and the associated drivers, e.g., [17; 20; 21; 23]. All of the aforementioned Caribbean studies utilize available altimetry data prior to or up to 2010, i.e., their results are premised on altimetry datasets of 18 years or less. This is true even for [PERSON] et al.