## 5 Recommendations  
The AHB project was intended to reduce the risk of progressing hybrid poplar biofuels production from research and demonstration to commercialization. Despite stiff competition in today's aviation fuels market, opportunities for a renewable fuels industry will very likely materialize as some analysts casts doubts on the future of the major international oil companies, stating that their, \"... _business model_rooted in assumptions of ever-growing oil demand, oil scarcity and the need to increase bookable reserves,... increasingly lacks validity\"_[48]. The increase in the use of energy from renewable sources is supported by falling technology costs and by fluctuation in fossil fuel prices [49]. Building on five years of AHB effort, the bioenergy summit debated the risks and barriers to commercialization of the hybrid poplar biofuels experience. The summit's findings generally support the 2014 GAO Report that the foremost--perhaps the only--impediment to achieving a workable poplar alternative jet fuels market is making the price competitive with conventional jet fuels [2]. Uncertainty in the policy and the regulatory arena is likewise critical, but the cost of conventional jet fuel is the only real obstacle to the alternative jet fuels industry. While the aviation industry is keen for a reliable and sustainable supply of biofuels that is environmentally well-graded, the summit representative from the aviation industry made clear that the airlines can only bear a small amount of incremental costs for biofuels and that only at the outset of the industry. With this market reality in mind and the goal of moving hybrid poplar biofuels from demonstration to commercialization, the following 11 key findings and recommendations were drawn from the breakout and plenary sessions. Bioproducts focus--Initially, a strategic plan should be put together around markets for bioproducts (alcohol sugars, nanocellulose, lignin carbon fiber, etc.). It should evaluate and select markets based on their ease-of-entry, competitive advantage over petroleum or conventional sugar platforms, and operating margins. Caution is urged for opportunities that require new technologies and processes or involve unproven bioproducts. The plan should consider this a near-term commercialization approach. Biofuels focus--The plan should further include a path to biofuels commercialization that meets USDA's priorities to create jobs and economic opportunity for regional rural communities, while enhancing existing agricultural and forestry industries, create ecosystem services, and help meet the global demand for alternative aviation fuel. This component should take the form of a blueprint for successive projects to build out the industry, and must address the principal cost drivers of biomass, energy, and enzymes. Initial conversion processes need to utilize available, inexpensive, and proven technology that is straightforward in design and modest in complexity. Pre-treatment especially needs to be simple and capable of reasonable product yields; assumptions around the rate of fuels conversion must be conservative. Pre-treatment designs that specify low energy requirements are particularly desirable owing to significant cost savings. Minimizing technological risks should be similarly emphasized. Project financing--The summit viewed public-private financing mechanism as a likely prerequisite to the initiation of the industry. Concern was voiced, however, that differences between the public and private sectors in deal-making velocity, risk tolerance, and bureaucracy will be difficult to bridge. Ecosystem services--The summit endorsed an analysis of opportunities for revenue streams involved in marketing water quality and carbon sequestration credits. Production scale--The strategic plan should quantify the smallest possible plant size that achieves a target return on investment for manufacturing selected bioproduct(s).