# Tourism-Induced Urbanization in Phuket Island, Thailand (1987-2024): A Spatiotemporal Analysis
## 3 Results  
### The Analysis of Phuket Land Use and Land Cover Changes  
Figure 5 shows that there were changes in land use and land cover between 1987 and 2024 across different categories. The study proves its strength with consistently high accuracy levels with OA ranging from 0.9426 to 0.9606 and KC values between 0.9156 and 0.9400.  
Table 2 illustrates the changes over time in land cover categories within the total area of land.  
Urban areas have grown significantly over the years, expanding from 78.9 km (14.5%) in the late 1980s to 102.4 square kilometers (18.9%) in the early 2020s, reaching a peak of 106.0 square kilometers (19.5%) around 2012. This growth trend mirrors urbanization patterns, although there was a slight dip in size during the mid-2010s that calls for further examination. These fluctuations hint at phases of urban development interspersed with possible shifts in policies or economic influences that temporarily slowed down city expansion. Meanwhile, water bodies experienced changes showing a slight overall increase from 11.3 square kilometers (2.1%) to 14.6 square kilometers (2.7%). This stability suggests that significant hydrological alterations or interventions in water management were likely limited during this period.  
Figure 4: General framework of the study illustrating the key methodological steps.  
The LULC exhibited significant variations over time, with an initial decrease from 267.4 square kilometers (49.2%) in the late 1980s to 223.0 square kilometers (41.1%) by the mid-2000s, followed by a substantial increase to 288.6 square kilometers (53.2 %) by the late 2010s before slightly dropping to 278.9 square kilometers (51.4 %) in the period. These changes likely reflect shifts in policies, economic circumstances, or land usage priorities throughout different eras. The forest area has been consistently decreasing, dropping from 138.2 square kilometers (25.5%) to 109.9 square kilometers (20.2%) with a significant decline between the periods of 2006-2010 and 2011-2015, reaching a low of 102.5 square kilometers (18.9%). This downward trend raises questions about what is driving deforestation and the potential impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. The barren land exhibited fluctuations increasing from 13.5 square kilometers (2.5%) in 1987-1990 to a peak of  
Figure 5: Phuket LULC changes illustrated in spatial-temporal (**a**) and the changes in categories in Phuket over a span of years (**b**) from 1990 to 2024.  
51.9 square kilometers (9.6%) in the period of 2011-2015 before returning to its original level of 13.5 square kilometers (2.5%) in the timeframe of 2021-2024. This fluctuation pattern likely indicates cycles of land degradation followed by efforts for reclamation or reforestation [48].  
Overall, mangrove ecosystems experienced a decline, reducing from an area of 33.7 km (6.2%) to 23.6 square kilometers (4.3%) with an increase noted during the years between 1996 and 2000. This declining trend is worrisome considering the crucial ecological role that mangroves play in coastal protection. Figure 2 clearly shows that there are changes and trends in land cover over time. For example, the proportion of areas has been consistently increasing, indicating urban growth. On the other hand, both agricultural and forest areas display varying levels of decrease and fluctuation. The percentages for Water, Barren land and Mangrove categories remain relatively stable with changes. This visual representation highlights the nature of land use in Phuket, reflecting significant shifts influenced by factors like urban development, environmental alterations, and land management practices [49].