# Beyond Static Estimates: Dynamic Simulation of Fire-Evacuation Interaction in Historical Districts
## 5 Conclusions  
This study develops a dynamic fire-evacuation interaction framework for historic districts, using Dukezong Ancient Town as a case study to evaluate how fire progression influences evacuation behavior and built environment conditions.  
The established fire simulation model exhibits strong performance, accurately reproducing fire spread patterns. Fire damage outcomes vary significantly under different conditions, with burned areas in the two most critical scenarios exceeding the 16-case average by 40.9% to 44.7%. In worst-case evacuation scenarios, average evacuation distances increase by 2.1-3.1% while durations (586.52 s and 638.76 s) are 37.4-49.5% longer than group averages. Ignition location and wind direction exert distinct impacts: centrally ignited fires cause immediate severe disruptions, whereas peripherally ignited fires result in prolonged cumulative effects. Dynamic simulation results show evacuation metrics increase rapidly during the first 15-25 min, surpassing static estimates by 24-26% in distance and 135-155% in time. Both scenarios exhibit severe congestion within 25 min, each reporting 14 congestion points concentrated along east-west arterial roads. Although average detour increases are modest (less than 30 m), evacuees near ignition points may divert over 250 m, greatly elevating evacuation risk. Evacuations to the emergency shelter show substantial duration increases (78-93%) and pronounced flow imbalance, with eastern entrance pedestrian density reaching 3-4 times that of the west.  
Based on these findings, this study proposes a three-stage evacuation-fire interaction model: (1) 0-10 min--localized detours due to fire onset; (2) 11-25 min--congestion driven by interactions between evacuation strategy and road structure; (3) after 25 min--fire predominantly affects the physical environment rather than behavior. The model highlights the structural contradiction between rapid warnings and limited traffic capacity, which can lead to \"fast alert-fast congestion\" effects. Therefore, multi-route guidance strategies, real-time information systems, and behavioral considerations are recommended over corridor widening. Finally, dynamic simulations reveal that static analyses tend to underestimate evacuation duration and route complexity, underscoring the need for worst-case scenario evaluations and multi-scenario envelope design approaches.  
The three-stage framework and dynamic modeling approach are transferable to other heritage districts facing similar fire-evacuation challenges. The findings support multi-route guidance and scenario-based planning as practical alternatives to costly infrastructure modifications, offering valuable insights for emergency management in historic urban environments.  
Conceptualization, Z.Y., D.Y. and Z.M.; methodology, Z.Y. and Z.M.; software, Z.Y. and Z.M.; validation, Z.Y., D.Y. and Z.M.; formal analysis, Z.Y. and Z.M.; investigation, Z.M.; resources, Z.Y. and Z.M.; data curation, Z.M. and S.J.; writing--original draft preparation, Z.M.; writing--review and editing, Z.Y.; visualization, Z.Y., Z.M., Y.H. and L.G.; supervision, Z.Y.; project administration, Z.Y. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.  
This work was supported by the Youth Fund Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) Program (grant number 51908116), Humanities and Social Science Foundation of the Ministry of Education in China (grant number 23 YJAZH059) and Key Laboratory of Urban and Architectural Heritage Conservation, Ministry of Education, Southeast University (grant number KLUAHC2401).  
Not applicable.  
Data Availability Statement: Data are available upon reasonable request to the corresponding author.  
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.