# Vegetation Dynamics and Recovery Potential in Arid and Semi-Arid Northwest China
## 3 Discussion
### Dynamic Response of Vegetation Recovery Potential to Climate Change in Northwest China  
In the context of global climate warming and the warming and humidification of northwest China, this study found that the overall potential for vegetation restoration in the region is declining. Spatially, it was observed that the western part of northwest  
Figure 13: Spatial variation in maximum fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in northwest China from 1982 to 2019 using LPJ model simulation ((**a**), 1982–1990; (**b**), 1991–1999; (**c**), 2000–2009; (**d**), 2010–2019). China primarily consists of rotational grazing zones [44]. This area is characterized by high ecosystem fragility, severe degradation, and a high potential for vegetation restoration with ample restoration space. This region is adjacent to the southwestern Gobi Desert, making it susceptible to the encroaching effects of desertification [45]. In the central region, which mainly consists of sand control and desertification prevention areas, desertification is extremely severe, and the potential for vegetation restoration is low, as the climate conditions are not conducive to vegetation growth. In the eastern region, which is primarily characterized by scientific grazing and artificial grassland construction, vegetation growth is highly sensitive to drought. The current state and potential for vegetation growth are moderate. This area could moderately develop agriculture and animal husbandry practices, but the ecosystem is extremely sensitive. Climate fluctuations or improper land use could severely damage the ecosystem, potentially leading to a shift in land cover from grassland to desertified grassland or even desert [11]. The spatial differences in vegetation restoration potential are primarily attributed to the shift in northwest China from a \"warm-dry\" to a \"warm-wet\" climate [46]. This transition began in the 1980s, when the warming Atlantic currents started to strengthen, leading to increased warm and moist airflows. This change is part of the interdecadal variability of oceans [14]. Since 2010, this trend has intensified along with Arctic warming, resulting in an increased transport of moisture and heat from the Arctic to lower latitudes [47]. In reality, influenced by atmospheric circulation, the warm-wet trend in northwest China is extending westward into Central Asia and eastward into western North China [48]. The warm-wet trend is most pronounced from China and Central Asia to northern India and Pakistan. Such extensive warming and moistening across regions from North Africa through West Asia to Central Asia and East Asia would not be possible without the concurrent intensification of the Atlantic warm currents and Arctic warming [49]. Currently, the warm-wet trend is having a positive effect on most of northwest China, leading to overall improvements in vegetation [50]. However, whether this greening trend will continue or increased potential evaporation in drier areas will result in greater aridity remains uncertain. Future scenarios will be explored using the LPJ model to simulate different outcomes. In the western grassland rotational grazing areas of northwest China, it is essential to focus on wind and sand control measures [51]. This includes installing grass grids, sand barriers, and sand control nets and establishing windbreak and sand control forests using a combination of biological, engineering, and chemical methods to prevent the spread of eastern deserts to the west. In the central region, which is primarily involved in sand control and reclamation projects, emphasis should be placed on wind and sand prevention measures, primarily using engineering and chemical approaches. These measures will help prevent the spread of desertification and the intensification of dust storms, potentially impacting surrounding areas [52]. Some degree of vegetation restoration measures can be implemented, integrating biological and engineering methods. In the eastern region, attention should be given to climate fluctuations.