## 3 Weather Component Analysis during the \"Oriental Star\" Accident  
### Purpose  
For ship navigators, if they can receive early warning signals of wind gusts that may occur in sight, they can make effective accident-avoidance activity. In the \"Oriental Star\" case, this preventive activity could be anchoring, like other nearby vessels did. The national investigation report [3] blamed the ship captain for \"ignoring the possibility that severe weather may occur\", which is somewhat true because no other ship in the same channel, regardless if they were big- or small-sized, sank that night. So far, no persuasive point was given as to why the captain kept this cruise ship, which was fully loaded with over 400 passengers, moving forward through the extreme heavy rain, but clearly, he would not do so if given enough warning in advance. It can be seen that short-term wind warning has certain practical significance in boat safety navigation. Regarding the strong wind gust warning, there are three points that need to be raised before further discussion:  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Abbreviation** & **Full Name** & **Level** & **Unit** &
\begin{tabular}{c} **Variation in “Oriental Star\"** \\ **Accident** \\ \end{tabular} \\ \hline
2D, 2T & Dew point and air temperature & 2 m above surface & K & No \\ CP & Cumulus precipitation & Surface & M & Extreme value fits the \\ LSP & Large-scale precipitation & Surface & M & No \\ MSL & Mean sea-level pressure & Surface & Pa & No \\ Q & Specific humidity & 700 mb, 850 mb & kg/kg (\%) & No \\ SLHF, SSH, SSR, STR & Latent and sensible heat flux, & Surface & W/m\({}^{2}\)s & No \\  & solar, and thermal radiation & & & \\ GH & Geopotential height & 700 mb, 850 mb & Gmp & No \\ T & Air temperature & 200 mb & K & Middle of increasing trend \\ T & Air temperature & 250 mb & K & End of increasing trend \\ T & Air temperature & 300 mb & K & End of increasing trend \\ T & Air temperature & 500 mb & K & No \\ U, V & Horizontal wind velocity & 10 m above surface, & m/s & No \\  & 200 mb, 700 mb, 850 mb & 1/s & No \\ VO & Vorticity & 700 mb, 850 mb & 1/s & No \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 1: Selected weather components in ECMWF deterministic product at 24 h lead time and their tempo-spatial variation in the “Oriental Star” accident.  
* Dynamic meteorology tells us the more convective the cell is, the more possible it is that we see an accompanying strong surface wind. But strong surface wind gusts and local heavy rains are not 100% present. This paper only discusses the possibility of the warning of strong surface wind gusts associated with a \"deep-convective event\". In other words, the probability exists that the findings may not fully warn of short-term convective gusts each time, but regardless, our purpose is to avoid deadly cruise boat capsizes.
* The space-time scale of the short-term strong wind gust's actual activity range is much smaller than the resolution of the conventional weather model. Therefore, the direct forecast of a sub-grid short-term strong wind is often ineffective in terms of advancement and accuracy. The focus of this paper is to solve this problem from the perspective of indirect forecasting.
* The cause for each ship accident may normally be due to, but is not limited to, just one factor. In the \"Oriental Star\" case, the national investigation report [3] concludes more than four possible factors, e.g., the captain's disastrous operation, a ship renovation flaw, the lack of attention by the maritime safety administration, and an adverse weather component. But this work only discusses the external non-human factor, i.e., potential weather predictor analysis.