## 4 Results and Discussion
### Supply-Side Analysis
#### 4.2.3 Supply-Side Scenario Analysis  
A scenario analysis was conducted in this study to provide solutions to mitigate the shortfall of electricity, which covers the following scenarios:  
* Integration of renewable energy (RE): the total installed capacity shares of renewable energy technologies will increase to 11.89% and 30% in 2024 and 2035, respectively;
* No coal scenario (NC): the share of coal-based power generation decreases to 0% in 2035;
* Emission target scenario: the GHG emissions will decrease by 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50% in 2035. Figure 14 shows the generation share from each powerplant considered in the no coal scenario. The no coal scenario shows that the share of coal in the generation mix in 2035 is zero. The model integrates more solar into the system with a share of about 9.8% compared to the baseline. The installation of coal-based power plants will be restricted in the future, thus ensuring the model selects more affordable investments in new power plants, while also accounting for the time constraint of added capacity in coming years. The model uses slightly more oil in 2035 than hydro, based on the cost minimization function and integration of available or new power plants in a specified year. Figure 14: Power supply mix in the no coal scenario. Figure 13: Zambia’s forecasted demand versus actual supply. Figure 15 shows the results of the baseline, renewable, and no coal scenario. The baseline scenario assumes that no new climate policies over the horizon are implemented. The baseline results show hydro, coal, and Oil(FO) as the prominent technologies in the final electricity generations. These technologies have been selected using the cost-minimization approach of the energy supply model for electricity generation. The second is the minimal generation from solar PV technologies in the baseline despite their most minor operations and maintenance costs. Reduction of CO2 emissions is observed using additional renewable energy technologies in comparison to oil power plants. The results for the RE scenario show a considerable reduction of CO2 emissions at approximately a 50% reduction in annual CO2 emissions by 2035. This scenario requires more renewable technologies integrated into the horizon to ensure that the implemented policy is fulfilled. Institutional frameworks must be in place to ensure additional policies on feed-in tariffs and utilization of renewable energy technologies. Hydroelectricity continues to dominate the generation mix, limiting the amount of imported oil and coal. This restricts the use of coal and oil supply reserves and the installation of new fossil fuel power plants. In this scenario, the share of coal decreases by almost half, from 10% in the base year to 5.4%. However, there seems to be a shortfall in electricity, which shows that the oil supply must increase. In the no coal scenario (NC), the model was forced to discontinue the future installation of coal-based power plants, as well as a bound on the oil imports, limiting the available conversion technologies that it can fully optimize to provide minimal cost. The model showed favorable tendencies toward hydropower and solar in the future. Mainly more investment in solar technologies resulted from this scenario, which increased the renewable share to 50.84% from 45.4% in the baseline case. Table 7 summarizes annual emissions, cost, and renewable shares in the different scenarios. An alternative selection of technologies for new capacity installations supersedes the choice of coal power plants in Zambia. However, with existing coal and oil technologies, the emissions decreased in 2035 from 10,444.4 to 9357.8 kilotons in the NC Scenario. In the 50% annual emission reduction scenario, the total power generation from the coal powerplant will decrease to zero in 2034-2035. The power generation from solar power plants is increased from 2032 to 2035, showing that more solar power plants will be installed during that period to replace fossil fuel power plants.