## 2 Materials and Methods
### Description of the Study Area  
The northern areas of Pakistan are known for various natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, and floods [39]. One of the worst earthquakes in October 2005 (Mw = 7.6)  
Figure 1: The methodological framework of modeling and evaluation strategy.  
left behind more than 80,000 deaths and a huge loss to infrastructure [40] and gave rise to slope failure events. This single event destabilized a large number of slopes in this part of the country. The central part of the study area under investigation constitutes the Hazara Division of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan, including part of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) in the east, Gilgit in the north, and Islamabad (the capital city of Pakistan) in the south. Geographically, the study area extends between 72\({}^{\circ}\)30\({}^{\prime}\)30.16\({}^{\prime\prime}\) E, 33\({}^{\circ}\)42\({}^{\prime}\)48.92\({}^{\prime\prime}\) N and 74\({}^{\circ}\)11\({}^{\prime}\)46.64\({}^{\prime\prime}\) E, 35\({}^{\circ}\)51\({}^{\prime}\)28.29\({}^{\prime\prime}\) N with an elevation range from 211 to 8558 m (Figure 2).  
With an area of more than 34,000 sq-km, the study area covers several mountain hills and tourist places with a diverse variety of land features including rivers, major faults, snow-covered peaks, and sparse to medium-dense forests [41]. Geologically, the formation of the region ranges from Precambrian to Quaternary, which includes metasediments and metamorphic and other consolidated materials. The area is comprised of two main zones, i.e., the Harman seismic zone (HSZ) and the Indus Kohistan seismic zone (IKSZ). The study area is comprised of four main units, i.e., (i) the Jijal complex, (ii) Kamila amphibite with para and ortho amphibolite plutonic rocks, (iii) Kohistan batholith, and (iv) metavolcanic/metasedimentary groups [42]. The major thrust faults in the study area include the main mantle thrust (MMT) and the main Karakorum thrust (MKT). The minor faults such as the Kohistan fault are in depositional contact, i.e., contact separating the Higher Himalayan Crystalline (HHC) with two faults making cross-sectional lines [43]. The study area is part of the upper Indus basin and feeds two of the major dams in Pakistan, i.e., the Tarbela and Mangla Dams. The main highway in the study area, Karakoram Highway (KKH), which is part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), mostly follows the Indus River and has been facing a severe problem of a large number of unstable slopes,  
Figure 2: Location of the study area and landslide inventory showing training and validation data.  
degradation, and landslides due to a variety of factors such as steep slopes, geology, and rainfall.  
The study area can be broadly divided into two climate zones, i.e., the southern zone and the northern zone. Geographically, the southern zone extends from Islamabad/Haripur up to the Dasu area and exhibits a high amount (approximately 1000 mm/year) of rainfall, with maximum rainfall during monsoon season. The northern zone, which extends from Dasu to Chilas and Gilgit, experiences lower rainfall (approximately 220 mm/year) as compared to the southern zone. One of the reasons for this sharp change in the climatic condition is the sudden change in the topography and terrain orientation in the area where the Indus valley turns into sharp bends. The changing patterns in terms of average rainfall and temperature (minimum and maximum) are shown in Figure 3.