## 3 Results
### Urban Growth Simulation Results  
As the first step, the simulated LULC map for the year 2017 was obtained using the LR algorithm learned from the LULC maps of 2007 and 2012. The reason for taking this step retrospectively related to the need to calculate the consistency between the simulated LULC map and the LULC map obtained from classification. The overall overlap ratio between these two maps was calculated as 0.72. It was found that there was a difference of 109.35 hectares in built-up areas, 6913.98 hectares in agricultural areas, 10,227.4 hectares in forest areas, 373.5 hectares in water surfaces, and 17,405.5 hectares in non-agricultural/non-forest areas between the simulated LULC map and the classified LULC map. The LULC map for the year 2017 obtained from classification and simulation is shown in Figure 15. Table 7 presents the distribution difference of LULC classes between these two maps.  
Figure 14: The distribution of LULC change by class between 2007 and 2022.  
Figure 15: LULC maps obtained from the 2017 classification (**left**) and simulation (**right**).  
Similarly, the LR algorithm trained from the LULC maps of 2012 and 2017 was used to obtain the simulated LULC map for the year 2022. The overall overlap ratio between these two maps was calculated as 0.70. It was found that there was a difference of 657.27 hectares in built-up areas, 5017.23 hectares in agricultural areas, 9918.63 hectares in forest areas, 43.56 hectares in water surfaces, and 5515.11 hectares in non-agricultural/non-forest areas between the simulated LULC map and the classified LULC map. The LULC map for the year 2022 obtained from classification and simulation is shown in Figure 16. Table 8 presents the distribution difference of LULC classes between these two maps.  
Due to the satisfactory overlap ratio obtained in the step-by-step simulation process, it was deemed appropriate to generate the LULC simulation for the year 2027 using the same technique. The LR algorithm trained from the LULC maps of 2017 and 2022 was used to obtain the simulated LULC map for the year 2027. The objective here was to quantitatively determine how LULC classes will change over the next five years in the Mersin Metropolitan Area and to depict urban expansion. The LULC map for the year 2027 obtained from simulation is shown in Figure 17. Table 9 presents the area covered by LULC simulation classes in 2027 and the proportion of the study area they occupy.  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c} \hline \hline  & **Classified LULC Area (ha)** & **Simulated LULC Area (ha)** & **Difference** & **Difference (\%)** \\ \hline Built-up Areas & 49,303.26 & 49,193.91 & 109.35 & 0.2\% \\ Agricultural Areas & 124,526.34 & 131,440.32 & \(-\)6913.98 & \(-\)5.5\% \\ Forest Areas & 35,332.11 & 45,559.53 & \(-\)10,227.42 & \(-\)28.9\% \\ Water Surfaces & 1219.05 & 1592.55 & \(-\)373.5 & \(-\)30.6\% \\ Non-Agricultural and Non-Forest & 20,296.53 & 2890.98 & 17,405.55 & 85.7\% \\ Sum & 230,677.29 & 230,677.29 & & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 7: Difference in area class distribution between 2017 classification and simulation LULC maps.  
Figure 16: LULC maps obtained from the 2022 classification (**left**) and simulation (**right**).  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c} \hline \hline  & **Classified LULC Area (ha)** & **Simulated LULC Area (ha)** & **Difference** & **Difference (\%)** \\ \hline Built-up Areas & 44,174.07 & 43,516.8 & 657.27 & 0.014\% \\ Agricultural Areas & 139,444.56 & 144,461.79 & \(-\)5017.23 & \(-\)3.5\% \\ Forest Areas & 30,141.36 & 20,222.73 & 9918.63 & 32.91\% \\ Water Surfaces & 716.58 & 760.14 & \(-\)43.56 & \(-\)6.08\% \\ Non-Agricultural and Non-Forest & 16,200.72 & 21,715.83 & \(-\)5515.11 & \(-\)34.04\% \\ Sum & 230,677.29 & 231,677.29 & & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 8: Difference in areal class distribution between 2022 classification and simulation LULC maps.