# Resilience Assessment for the Northern Sea Route Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network
## 3 Model Established for NSR Resilience Measurement
### Resilience Capacity Decomposition for the Arctic Northeast Route
#### 3.3.2 Adaptive Capacity  
The adaptive capacity can be defined as the level to which a system self-organizes itself and takes dynamic measures to restrict and control the severe impact of a disruption. Compared with the absorptive capacity, the adaptive capacity requires flexible and dynamic efforts [71] and mitigates a disruption as a \"second line of defense\", as presented in Figure 6. It is also regarded as part of the \"post-accident strategy\". The features contributing to the adaptive capacity of the NSR resilience are described in Table 5. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c} \hline \hline
**Features** & **Description** \\ \hline Aid-to-navigation & The aid-to-navigation (A-to-N) facilities, including visual and audible A-to-N facilities, racons, radar marks, and shore-based Automatic Identification System (AIS) stations, are critical for navigating safely along the NSR. There are approximately 1240 coastal visual signs and 300 floating markers associated with the NSR [68]. \\ \hline Skilled seafarer team & Compared with conventional shipping route, the NSR is characterized by lots of special risks. The skilled seafarer team can swiftly the situation and take effective countermeasures with teamwork to deal with potential risks. In addition, a skilled seafarer team can develop a harmonious atmosphere in which everyone can limit the defense risk. \\ \hline Critical facility redundancy & The redundant critical facilities, such as those that provide emergency power backup, high power conservation, extra positioning techniques, and backup navigation instruments, are able to strengthen the robustness of the security system and restrict the consequences of disruptions. \\ \hline Equipment for arctic environment & The equipment designed for the arctic environment can effectively defend against or absorb the risks caused by weather condition, such as low temperatures, frost, and moisture, especially the equipment allocated on deck, including cranes, mooring winches, and windlasses, which are exposed to the external environment. \\ \hline Coordination with icebreaker & Icebreaker assistance operations play an essential role in ice-covered waters to reduce the risk of accidents, such as ice collisions and propeller or rudder damage. In addition, the case of trapped vessels by ice can also be avoided, and the disruption introduced by large amounts of floating ice can be absorbed [8]. \\ \hline Ice pilots/navigators & The assistance provided by ice pilots or navigators can defend against or attenuate various risks caused by disruptions; this approach is suitable for the case in which a shipmaster has little experience navigating in ice along the NSR. The organizations providing ice pilot services can be obtained from the NSRA [68]. \\ \hline Skifful emergency response & Under unpredictable situations related to heavy fog, floating ice, and strong wind in the NSR region, a proficient emergency response group can establish counteractive measures to response to the threats. Besides, a skilled seafarer can fully utilize the available resources, which are essential for mitigating various risks [27]. \\ \hline Response plan & A detailed response plan corresponding to various predictable disruptions and risks encountered along the NSR is useful for guiding seafarers or operators to take appropriate actions during disruptions, thus keeping the disruption or risk controllable. \\ \hline Navigational publications & Navigational publications refer to charts and other navigational publications, such as those used for guidance in arctic navigation, lists of radio signals, and notices to mariners; ice charts, which are useful for monitoring the risk related to sea ice, are particularly important [67; 70] \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 4: Absorptive capacity of NSR resilience.