## 5 Discussion
The total number of events with \(\Delta CFS>0.1\) bar in Figure 6d is 51, and the mean \(\Delta CFS\) value reaches about 0.3 bar. Earthquakes with higher values in the calculations are close to the vicinity of the 6.8 \(M\)w event in 2020, whose mean \(\Delta\)CFS value reaches about 4.4 bar. The total number of events with \(\Delta\)CFS \(>0.1\) bar in Figure 6e is 81, and the mean \(\Delta CFS\) is about 0.29 bar. Figure 6: \(\Delta CFS\) produced by eight earthquakes on subsequent earthquakes. (**a**) \(\Delta CFS\) induced by earthquake in 1986; (**b**) \(\Delta CFS\) induced by earthquakes in 1986 and 1998; (**c**) \(\Delta CFS\) induced by earthquakes in 1986, 1998, and 2003; (**d**) \(\Delta CFS\) induced by earthquakes in 1986, 1998, 2003, and 2020; (**e**) \(\Delta CFS\) induced by earthquakes from 1986 to 2023. The focal mechanisms used in each plot occur after the earthquakes are used to calculate the \(\Delta CFS\) values. Figure 7 illustrates the \(\Delta CFS\)' values resulting from earthquakes 1-8 on subsequent earthquakes. The upper and lower graphs represent the \(\Delta CFS\) computed for the two nodal planes. The earthquake 4 and the earthquakes 5-8 exhibit elevated \(\Delta\)CFS values for subsequent seismic events. These events with higher \(\Delta\)CFS values are temporally close to the large earthquakes that induced them. Events with increased \(\Delta\)CFS values attributed to the 6.8 \(M\)w earthquake in 2020 are predominantly clustered prior to September 2020. The \(\Delta\)CFS values derived for this earthquake range from \(-\)5.9 to 6.7 bar for nodal plane 1 and from \(-\)7.9 to 7.2 bar for nodal plane 2, and the averaging \(\Delta\)CFS is about 2.2 bar. Earthquakes 5-8 induced more events with high \(\Delta CFS\) values than earthquake 4. The \(\Delta CFS\) values calculated for these four earthquakes ranged from \(-\)10 to 6.9 bar for nodal plane 1 and from \(-\)10.1 bar to 6.3 bar for nodal plane 2, and the mean \(\Delta\)CFS is about 2.3 bar. Earthquakes 1-3 produced much lower \(\Delta CFS\) values for subsequent earthquakes compared to earthquakes 4-8. Some researchers have also carried out analogous work to evaluate the seismic risk in the vicinity of EAFZ [25; 65; 66; 67]. [PERSON] et al. conducted a cluster analysis of the seismic activity in Turkey by using seismic data for specific time periods and regions in the Turkish Homogenized Earthquake Catalog (TURHEC) [66]. They found a few months-long decrease in b-values and an increase in the global coefficient of variation in inter-event times during 2020-2023, which predicted the occurrence of the Kahramanmaras earthquakes [66]. We calculate the \(\Delta CFS\) values of the 6.8 \(M\)w earthquake in 2020 for subsequent earthquakes, and the results show that the \(\Delta CFS\) values greater than 0.1 bar continue from \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Year** & **Longitude (\({}^{\circ}\)E)** & **Latitude (\({}^{\circ}\)N)** & **Depth (km)** & **Magnitude (Mw)** & **Coulomb1 (bar)** & **Coulomb2 (bar)** \\ \hline  & & & & Induced by earthquake 1 & & \\
06-02-2023 & 37.67 & 37.83 & 0.43 & 4.6 & 0.53 & 0.33 \\
07-02-2023 & 37.65 & 37.81 & 8.44 & 5.4 & \(-\)0.23 & 0.29 \\ \hline  & & & Induced by earthquakes 1–2 & & & \\
28-06-1998 & 35.54 & 36.89 & 10.00 & 4.9 & 0.13 & \(-\)0.02 \\
06-02-2023 & 37.67 & 37.83 & 0.43 & 4.6 & 0.53 & 0.33 \\
06-02-2023 & 35.89 & 36.73 & 7.27 & 4.1 & 0.19 & 0.02 \\
07-02-2023 & 37.65 & 37.81 & 8.44 & 5.4 & \(-\)0.23 & 0.29 \\
11-03-2023 & 35.67 & 36.98 & 7.00 & 4.0 & 0.06 & 0.57 \\ \hline  & & & Induced by earthquakes 1–3 & & & \\
06-02-2023 & 37.67 & 37.83 & 0.43 & 4.6 & 0.53 & 0.33 \\
06-02-2023 & 35.89 & 36.73 & 7.27 & 4.1 & 0.19 & 0.02 \\
07-02-2023 & 37.65 & 37.81 & 8.44 & 5.4 & \(-\)0.23 & 0.29 \\
11-03-2023 & 35.67 & 36.98 & 7.00 & 4.0 & 0.06 & 0.57 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 3: The seismic events with \(\Delta CFS>0.1\) bar induced by earthquakes 1–3. Figure 7: Earthquakes 1–8 produced \(\Delta CFS\) values for subsequent earthquakes.