###### Abstract
Agricultural drought is a period in which the soil moisture (SM) supply is less than the minimum needs of plants, so the yields of crops and, therefore, their production are negatively affected [10; 11]. Studies and assessments of agricultural drought are crucial, as it is considered the most serious concern in many countries from food security, social stability and economic perspectives [12; 13]. Agriculture is the main land use type in Europe, which is an activity that requires a significant amount of water, an increasingly scarce resource [14; 15]. In fact, SM drought risk is projected to increase in central western Europe and southern Europe under all climate scenarios, and the Mediterranean region is expected to be the most affected region, regardless of the type of drought [14; 16; 17]. This hazard is especially important, as the European Union (EU) is one of the largest cereal producers in the world, with wheat (_Trticulum_) and barley (_Hordeum vulgare_) cereals standing out in terms of planted area [18]. As a consequence, net yield losses will reduce the economic output of agriculture in the EU [19]. This scenario is emphasized in rainfed agriculture owing to its increased vulnerability to climate anomalies [20]. Under rainfed conditions, important crops such as wheat and barley often suffer from droughs that cause significant yield losses [21]. Looking ahead to the next decades, it is believed that production levels will stagnate for a variety of reasons, but mainly due to climate change and adverse weather events [18]. Thus, in the face of a changing climate, it is crucial to analyze and understand the impact of climatic extremes on past and present crop yields to ensure and optimize yields. Thus, several studies [22; 23; 24] have analyzed the drought vulnerability of crops in Spain and the impact on crop yields and consider the need for further analysis to help unravel the climatic mechanisms influencing yield responses to climate in Spain. In addition, with the same approach, several studies have been conducted in Germany [25; 26] suggesting the special analysis of individual drought years with respect to relevant variables and the performance of a monthly correlation analysis between drought indices and crop yields to determine possible seasonal focal points. It is increasingly difficult to ignore SM as a key variable of the natural system [27]. SM availability is a nexus of the water and the energy and carbon cycles, as well as a primary process in the climate system [28; 29]. SM drought has been shown to alter vegetation processes [30], and in many of them, plant water availability is responsible for this effect [31]. In fact, in agriculture, SM is an essential variable because its scarcity is an obstacle to proper plant productivity [32], reducing crop yields [33]. However, despite the importance and interest in agricultural impacts caused by soil moisture deficits, few studies have quantified the impact in terms of crop yields in each zone [34]. Many drought indices have been developed [35], but meteorological drought indices are usually used to assess the impact of drought on agricultural production [36; 37]. When agricultural drought indicators are used, SM is usually not used as the primary variable but as a derived variable [38], despite SM being the variable by which agricultural drought is defined. This is so, even though SM has been shown to be the critical variable in the productivity of strategic crops under certain environmental conditions [39]. This study aims to analyze the impact of agricultural drought on wheat and barley crop yields in rainfed systems from different perspectives and under different environmental scenarios. The analysis was performed in the main cereal-growing regions of Spain and Germany, two of the most important countries for the production of these crops in Europe, during the 2001-2020 period. For this purpose, the monthly SM anomalies in the root zone, obtained from the LISFLOOD model database [40], were considered as the agricultural drought index.