# Earthquake Prediction for the Duzce Province in the Marmara Region Using Artificial Intelligence
## 5 Results and Discussion
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Date** & **Depth** & **Magnitude** & **Average** & **Probability** & **Prediction** \\  & **(km)** & **(M \(\geq\) 3)** & **Magnitude** & **(\%)** & **(M)** \\ \hline
23 August 1999 & 1 & 3.1 & & & \\
23 August 1999 & 6 & 3.2 & & & \\
23 August 1999 & 4 & 3.3 & & & \\
23 August 1999 & 11 & 3.0 & & & \\
23 August 1999 & 23 & 3.5 & & & \\
23 August 1999 & 5 & 3.8 & & & \\
23 August 1999 & 7 & 3.0 & & & \\
23 August 1999 & 4 & 3.2 & & & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 11: Actual and estimated magnitude data for 23 August 1999. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Date** & **Depth** & **Magnitude** & **Average** & **Probability** & **Prediction** \\  & **(km)** & **(M \(\geq\) 3)** & **Magnitude** & **(\%)** & **(M)** \\ \hline
24 August 1999 & 5 & 3.7 & & & \\
24 August 1999 & 9 & 3.0 & & & \\
24 August 1999 & 8 & 3.1 & & & \\
24 August 1999 & 6 & 3.2 & 3.3 & 69.6 & 2.9 \\
24 August 1999 & 7 & 3.0 & & & \\
24 August 1999 & 1 & 3.2 & & & \\
24 August 1999 & 1 & 3.1 & & & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 12: Actual and estimated magnitude data for 24 August 1999. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Date** & **Depth** & **Magnitude** & **Average** & **Probability** & **Prediction** \\  & **(km)** & **(M \(\geq\) 3)** & **Magnitude** & **(M \(\geq\) 3)** & **(\%)** & **(M)** \\ \hline
28 August 1999 & 7 & 3.1 & & & \\
28 August 1999 & 5 & 3.6 & & & \\
28 August 1999 & 5 & 3.3 & & & \\
28 August 1999 & 22 & 3.3 & & & \\
28 August 1999 & 9 & 3.6 & 3.4 & 68.3 & 3.2 \\
28 August 1999 & 5 & 3.7 & & & \\
28 August 1999 & 9 & 3.5 & & & \\
28 August 1999 & 9 & 3.2 & & & \\
28 August 1999 & 9 & 3.0 & & & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 16: Actual and estimated magnitude data for 28 August 1999. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Date** & **Depth** & **Magnitude** & **Average** & **Probability** & **Prediction** \\  & **(km)** & **(M \(\geq\) 3)** & **Magnitude** & **(\%)** & **(M)** \\ \hline
29 August 1999 & 5 & 3.3 & & & \\
29 August 1999 & 5 & 3.2 & & & \\
29 August 1999 & 7 & 4.8 & & & \\
29 August 1999 & 16 & 4.0 & 3.7 & 70.3 & 3.4 \\
29 August 1999 & 5 & 3.5 & & & \\
29 August 1999 & 12 & 3.3 & & & \\
29 August 1999 & 4 & 3.6 & & & \\
29 August 1999 & 7 & 3.6 & & & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 17: Actual and estimated magnitude data for 29 August 1999. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Date** & **Depth** & **Magnitude** & **Average** & **Probability** & **Prediction** \\  & **(km)** & **(M \(\geq\) 3)** & **Magnitude** & **(\%)** & **(M)** \\ \hline
26 August 1999 & 9 & 3.1 & & & \\
26 August 1999 & 2 & 3.1 & & & \\
26 August 1999 & 1 & 3.6 & & & \\
26 August 1999 & 7 & 3.0 & & & \\
26 August 1999 & 5 & 3.2 & & & \\
26 August 1999 & 6 & 3.7 & 3.5 & 68.9 & 3.0 \\
26 August 1999 & 3 & 4.1 & & & \\
26 August 1999 & 5 & 3.6 & & & \\
26 August 1999 & 5 & 3.5 & & & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 14: Actual and estimated magnitude data for 26 August 1999. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Date** & **Depth** & **Magnitude** & **Average** & **Probability** & **Prediction** \\  & **(km)** & **(M \(\geq\) 3)** & **Magnitude** & **(\%)** & **(M)** \\ \hline
27 August 1999 & 9 & 3.3 & & & \\
27 August 1999 & 15 & 3.0 & & & \\
27 August 1999 & 16 & 3.1 & & & \\
27 August 1999 & 7 & 3.5 & & & \\
27 August 1999 & 10 & 3.8 & 3.3 & 71.1 & 3.0 \\
27 August 1999 & 10 & 3.2 & & & \\
27 August 1999 & 5 & 3.1 & & & \\
27 August 1999 & 10 & 3.1 & & & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 15: Actual and estimated magnitude data for 27 August 1999. For earthquakes occurring between 17 August 1999 and 31 August 1999, the evaluation of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was conducted for real magnitude data and predicted magnitude data. MAPE represents the average of absolute percentage errors between the real values and the corresponding predictions [37].