## 4 Results
### Patterns of Vulnerability, Exposure, and Adaptive Capacity at a National Scale  
At a national scale in Morocco, the vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indexes varied for barley, maize, and wheat. The initial results from the vulnerability indexes confirmed this assertion. For example, wheat showed the lowest rates for all the indexes except for the adaptive capacity index, where it showed the highest rate. The vulnerability index for wheat was 0.15 and the exposure index was 0.75, while the sensitivity index was 1.1. The adaptive capacity index of wheat was 1.7 (Figure 6). These initial results show that wheat is the least vulnerable of the three crops and the most adaptive, due to the higher adaptive capacity of the farmers. Barley on the other hand is the second, as it showed the second lowest vulnerability index of 0.42, the same exposure index as wheat of 0.75, the second lowest sensitivity index of 1.2, and the second highest  
Figure 4: Trends in (**a**) actual wheat, barley, and maize yields, and (**b**) actual mean growing season precipitation for wheat, barley, and maize in Morocco.  
adaptive capacity index of 1.53 (Figure 6). Finally, maize showed the highest vulnerability index of 0.84, the highest exposure index of 1.01, the highest sensitivity index of 1.3, and the lowest adaptive capacity index of 1.47 (Figure 6). From these results, wheat is the least vulnerable and the most adaptive of the three crops, followed by barley--while maize is the most vulnerable and the least adaptive, as indicated by the low adaptive capacity of the farmers.  
From a temporal perspective, the results showed that vulnerability generally declined over time for all three crops, while adaptive capacity increased. The other sub-indexes (sensitivity and exposure indexes) were generally declining in a fluctuating manner but were higher than the vulnerability index (Figure 7). When these indexes were compared with yield trends and growing season precipitation (Figure 4a,b), it was observed that the yields assumed a highly fluctuating but declining trend, while growing season precipitation was also highly variable and unreliable over time. This unreliable growing season precipitation is an indication that precipitation was adversely affecting yields in the study area and that the rising yield trends for some crops can be attributed to other drivers such as irrigation and agricultural mechanization. Indeed, the level of vulnerability for any of these crops was mitigated by the adaptive capacity of the farmers cultivating the crop. This was seen here, as higher adaptive capacities were often linked to lower vulnerability indexes. Thus, the hypothesis was that when the adaptive capacity index is high, the vulnerability index is lower. Over time, the results showed that the adaptive capacity index had been increasing while the vulnerability index had been declining. Additionally, the adaptive capacity and vulnerability indexes were higher and lower, respectively, in the northern parts of the country when compared to the southern parts. Invariably, the adaptive capacity index plays a key role here, as it ultimately determines the level and intensity of vulnerability. Despite the magnitude of the climate forcing, adequate adaptive capacity could mitigate its effects and lower the vulnerability index.  
Figure 5: Cont.  
Figure 5: Scatter plots of mean growing season rainfall vs. (**a**) barley yields, (**b**) maize yields, and (**c**) wheat yields.  
In terms of Pearson correlations, it can be observed that at the national scale, the correlation between the adaptive capacity index and the vulnerability index was generally negative, implying that when adaptive capacity increases vulnerability declines. Additionally, the latter correlation was the highest of all the correlations, indicating that the adaptive capacity index had a stronger impact on the vulnerability index when compared to the sensitivity and the exposure indexes (Table 1).