## 4 Discussion
The predicted current distribution map aligns well with observed occurrence records, with regions of high habitat suitability predominantly concentrated along the Mediterranean coastlines. When projecting into the future, the study's results indicate potential shifts in the distribution of _Phyllogmathus excavatus_ under different climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5) for 2050 and 2070. Particularly, areas in North Africa, Turkey, and Greece face potential habitat loss, suggesting increased vulnerability to extinction. The Arabian Peninsula appears to become unsuitable for the species, indicating a considerable reduction in suitable habitats. These projected changes align with broader ecological predictions of climate-driven shifts in species distributions, emphasizing the urgent need for conservation efforts at risk regions [31; 32]. The envelope (two-dimensional niche) analysis further supports the adaptability of _Phyllogmathus excavatus_ to varying humidity conditions, while its temperature range appears relatively narrow (11-26 \({}^{\circ}\)C). This highlights the species' sensitivity to temperature fluctuations, which is consistent with the well-known temperature-dependent nature of insect physiology and behavior [33]. The decline in habitat suitability in North Africa could have broader implications for ecosystem functioning and nutrient cycling, as _Phyllogmathus excavatus_ plays a crucial role in these processes. Reduced dung beetle populations could disrupt dung decomposition and nutrient recycling processes, impacting soil quality and ecosystem health. When taking a large view some other species of dung beetles could replace _Phyllogmathus excavates_ through this area. Recently, a modeling study of _Oplostomus fuligineus_ indicated that this species of dung beetle will shift its range from tropical Africa to north Africa and it is already collected from Tunisia [34]. Furthermore, the study's findings have implications for agricultural systems. Changes in the distribution of dung beetles can influence dung decomposition rates and fly population dynamics, which could affect livestock health and disease transmission [35]. Moreover, alterations in the beetle's distribution could impact animal waste management practices, potentially leading to shifts in waste degradation rates and nutrient recycling in agricultural landscapes [36]. This study's findings are consistent with earlier research on the effects of climate change on species ranges and ecological interactions. For example, [PERSON] and [PERSON] [35] highlight the significance of temperature in shaping species' reactions to climate change, whereas [PERSON] and others [36] investigate the possibility for range changes under different climate scenarios, such as the one that exists here in northern France. The study's focus on a single insect species and its ecological activities gives useful insights into the potential effects of distributional changes on nutrient cycling and agricultural systems, complementing larger research on biodiversity shifts [37; 38; 39; 40; 41]. However, it is important to acknowledge the potential limitations of the study. The model assumes that species' distribution is solely determined by climatic factors, neglecting other ecological, biological, and anthropogenic factors that can influence distribution patterns. Additionally, the accuracy of the predictions heavily relies on the accuracy of input occurrence data and climate projections. This limitation is due to the relay of the future models on climate only and we cannot easily know how other factors will be in the future.