## 1 Introduction  
For analyses of slope stability, especially in tropical zones with active geological processes, such as in the case of Colombia, and for the purpose of establishing a hazard zoning map and a prediction model, it is necessary to carry out a screening analysis using different scales such as regional (1:25,000), semi-detailed (1:500), and detailed (1:2000), as proposed by the methodology used in the Colombian Geological Survey [1]. A smaller scale allows for covering a larger area, which can influence the analysis of a specific site and its surroundings without using more resources, provided that cartography has already been conducted. This approach relies on inputs such as geology, geomorphology, and vegetation cover, as discussed in the first article of this research [2]. It also serves as a starting point for the following phases. The 1:25,000 scale allows for a preliminary analysis of the projects. At the 1:5000 scale, a window of approach is obtained, focusing on more detail at a specific site where soil resistance parameters are already involved. These are understood as the conditioning factors and their correlation with the detonating factors, calculated through the safety factor, which determines the level of geotechnical hazard and, consequently, the potential failure of the analysis site. This scale is used for the analysis of project alternatives at the feasibility stage. Finally, the detailed 1:2000 scale uses specific topographic and geotechnical profiles involving, in addition to the safety factor, the probability of failure, the influence of rainfall infiltration, and deformation models. All of the above is applied to areas where a high hazard was identified at the previous scale and to moderate hazard areas flagged as high in the 1:25,000 scale, under the premise that the results of the analysis at each scale must be correlated since the method of analysis and its input variables differ in each case. The 1:2000 scale is used for the design and construction of engineering works. In this study, we concentrate on the 1:5000 scale as a continuation of the first phase of the research, where a prediction methodology was established based on the concept of cumulative geotechnical deterioration AGD [2]. This, in turn, will serve as the basis for the next scale (1:2000), which will constitute the following article as the main innovative contribution of this research. Based on the fact that existing methodologies focus on hazard zoning, the problem is oriented toward the need to improve the accuracy of landslide prediction by incorporating the concept of AGD as an innovative aspect in the application of these methodologies. This concept is based on the idea that for a slope to fail, deterioration of the conditioning factors--which differ from each daily manifestation of triggering factors--must occur. This makes it clear that terrain conditions, especially in slope deposits, are constantly changing. The main objective of this paper is to use AGD to improve the 1:5000 semi-detailed scale analysis, improving the accuracy of Cortinas slope failure prediction as a continuation of the 1:25,000 scale analysis and as support for the 1:2000 detailed scale and future investigations. The prediction proposal is summarized as follows: if changes in the magnitude of soil parameters can be measured and compared with pre-established failure scenarios from simulations, advance warnings of ground failure could be generated, i.e., the prediction. These measurements add value when taken directly and periodically over time. Scientific research centers and consulting companies have mainly focused on defining hazard zoning to identify areas that are more susceptible to failure, which can affect different infrastructures within a country. Significant progress has been made in this regard, and today, there are several methodologies for this purpose. However, in terms of prediction, despite extensive study, it can be stated that the available models require further research to be more precise.