# Human Factors as Predictor of Fatalities in Aviation Accidents: A Neural Network Analysis
## 2 State of the Art
The root causes of all factors can be reduced to twelve. These twelve root causes are very well known as the \"Dirty Dozen\" and are an aviation standard and field of study by themselves. These Dirty Dozen causes delineate twelve prevalent factors that have been empirically shown to contribute to human error in the context of aviation. They are as follows: lack of communication, complacency, lack of knowledge, distraction, lack of teamwork, fatigue, lack of resources, pressure, lack of assertiveness, norms, lack of awareness, and stress [1; 11; 15; 16; 17]. By methodically identifying and addressing the elements within the Dirty Dozen, professionals in the aviation industry are better positioned to foster a culture oriented towards safety, thereby reducing the propensity for errors, and substantially enhancing operational safety metrics. This framework not only serves as an instrumental tool for training initiatives but also facilitates self-assessment procedures, laying the groundwork for the formulation of risk mitigation strategies pertinent to human factors in aviation. Through ongoing scrutiny and comprehension of these twelve critical elements, the aviation sector is poised for progression toward a more secure and efficient operational paradigm. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Risk**} & \multicolumn{5}{c}{**Risk Severity**} \\ \cline{2-6}  & **Catastrophic** & **Danger** & **Major** & **Minor** & **Insignificant** \\  & **A** & **B** & **C** & **D** & **E** \\ \hline Frequent—5 & 5A & 5B & 5C & 5D & 5E \\ Occasional—4 & 4A & 4B & 4C & 4D & 4E \\ Remote—3 & 3A & 3B & 3C & 3D & 3E \\ Improbable—2 & 2A & 2B & 2C & 2D & 2E \\ Extremely improbable—1 & 1A & 1B & 1C & 1D & 1E \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 1: Risk matrix showing different levels of risk acceptability in different colors (adapted from [11]). While every human, even with the best training, is of course always liable to make mistakes [18], many players have suggested different ways of reducing the impact of human factors. The ICAO has provided efforts to improve organizational structures and human management [11]; Boeing addressed visual perception, ergonomics, and the human-computer interface [14; 19]; organizational safety culture was addressed in [20]; a constant monitoring of routine operations is envisioned in [8]; an Aviation Maintenance Monitoring Process (AMMP) is suggested in [21]; and a bibliometric analysis can be found in [22]. In [23], a probabilistic and statistical study of aeronautical accidents is carried out, in which the authors, using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, sought to assess safety levels in the aviation sector, analyzing available data and accident reports and the different variables involved, which, through time series analysis, present forecasts of values and respective trends for the future. In [24], a review of problems linked to the mental health of pilots and aviation professionals is presented. The study sought to find answers from the players about the awareness or lack of mental health in the sector, and its criticality and importance for aviation safety, as well as the identification of the factors (fatigue, stress, anxiety, depression, and exhaustion) that most contribute to the deterioration of mental health, with a view to finding results to optimize aviation safety. The topic surrounding mental health has become more relevant since the accidents that occurred with a LAM flight in 2013 and a Germanwings flight in 2015, caused by pilots with mental health problems, and has been attracting the attention of researchers in a constant search for mitigating and preventive measures for aeronautical safety. There are several factors that contribute to human errors continuing to be classified as the main cause of aviation accidents in recent years.