# Evaluation of Subway Emergency Evacuation Based on Combined Theoretical and Simulation Methods
## 1 Introduction  
The continuous advancement of urbanization in China has resulted in the expansion of urban regions, a yearly rise in commercial and mixed-use land, and an increasing workforce [1]. In this context, there is a heightened demand for convenience and safety in travel [2]. Rail transit, characterized by its capacity, punctuality, and convenience, has emerged as a crucial component of urban transportation systems [3]. However, various complex factors, including adverse weather conditions, large-scale events, and holidays, coupled with the rapid increase in subway ridership and the dynamic nature of time and space, present substantial challenges for subway operation management, particularly in line scheduling and emergency planning [4]. In 2023, an incident occurred on the Changing Line of the Beijing subway, where a train derailed due to snow and subsequently collided with another train [5]. Despite the subway operating company's prompt activation of an emergency response plan, which included deploying additional personnel to manage crowds, restricting access to certain stations, and reducing operational speeds, the situation still resulted in congestion, stampedes, and other safety incidents, leading to severe consequences, including casualties [6]. As the subway network becomes increasingly complex and the pressure on its capacity intensifies, the rational optimization of scheduling and the implementation of efficient and safe management practices have become urgent priorities for urban subway operations [7]. For passengers, it is imperative that the Mass Transit Railway (MTR) provides a high standard of service to ensure safe, timely arrivals at their destinations while facilitating a comfortable travel experience. Conversely, the subway operation management department must balance the optimization of operational costs with the need to meet passenger demands for safety and comfort, particularly inmanaging emergency evacuations and guidance during periods of high passenger flow. This necessitates the flexible adjustment of train numbers, departure intervals, and other operational parameters in response to passenger flow at various lines and stations, as well as the modification of evacuation routes and the enhancement in the signage and guidance at subway stations [8]. Given that subways operate in a confined underground environment with limited ventilation and visibility, emergencies can pose significant risks to the safety and well-being of passengers. Therefore, it is critical to effectively calculate the emergency evacuation times for each station, assess the structural layout and evacuation capacity of stations, and develop comprehensive emergency plans and response protocols. Ensuring rapid and effective emergency management and evacuation in the event of an incident has become a pressing issue that the subway operation management department must address. Recent studies have employed a range of methodologies, including simulation, mathematical modeling, virtual reality, and algorithm optimization, to study subway emergency evacuation. When it comes to simulation, [PERSON] et al. introduced an innovative approach to enhance cellular automata for real-time building evacuation situations [9]. This method integrates cellular automata with the concept of potential energy fields derived from fluid dynamics theory, facilitating the identification of safe pathways for the movement of individuals and mitigating the risk of stampedes. [PERSON] et al. conducted a study on emergency facilities and passenger flow during subway evacuations, focusing on evacuated individuals, evacuation routes, and designated safe areas [10]. They introduced an engineering calculation method to determine the emergency evacuation time for subway passengers. Utilizing experimental data, the researchers employed an agent-based model to simulate the evacuation process across different fire scenarios.