## 2 Material and Methods
### Multi-Agent Simulation
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c} \hline
**Variable** & **Domain/Unit** & **Current Value** & **References and Observations** \\ \hline \(\delta_{1}\)—Proportion of Companies & Companies/Households & 1/20 & Estimate based on the ratio of one company for every 18 households in urban areas of Brazil [38] \\ \hline \(\delta_{2}\)—Total GDP & \$ & \(\approx\)30,550,463.76 & Calculated from the average monthly income of households and the total number of households. Close to the GDP per capita of Recife in 2018 (BRL 31,743.72) [39] \\ \hline \(\delta_{3}\)—Public GDP Rate & \% of Total GDP & 20\% & Close to the government expenditure in Brazil of 19.6\% of GDP in 2019 [40]. \\ \hline \(\delta_{4}\)—Business GDP Rate & \% of Total GDP & 40\% & Close to the private sector contribution to GDP of around 42\% in 2019 [41] \\ \hline \(\delta_{5}\)—Minimum Income & \$ & 1100.00 & Matches the Brazilian minimum wage set for 2021 [42] \\ \hline \(\delta_{6}\)—Minimum Expenses & \$ & 770.00 & Close to the estimated minimum necessary expenditure for a family in Recife in 2020 of BRL 772.00 [43] \\ \hline \(\delta_{7}\)—Unemployment Rate & \% & 18\% & Close to the unemployment rate in Recife of 18.8\% in the first quarter of 2021 [44] \\ \hline \(\delta_{8}\)—Proportion of Informal Businesses & \% of Companies & 50\% & Close to the informality rate in \\  & & & Pernambuco of 51.6\% in 2019 [44] \\ \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 3: Economic estimates for Joana Bezerra Island, Recife. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l l l l} \hline \hline
**Parameter** & **Initial Number** & **Calculation** & **Explanation** \\ \hline PI2 & 0.23 & pop - nE & Proportion of Cases Progressing from _11_ to _12_[47] \\ \hline nS & 12,585 & pop - nE & Total population minus exposed \\ \hline nE & 11 & nIO/pe & Initial exposed based on initial infections \\ \hline nP & 5 & Estimated from Section 2.5.1 & Pre-symptomatic individuals \\ \hline nA & 3 & 30\% of nI0 & Asymptomatic individuals [59] \\ \hline nI0 & 100 & 1/Psub & Based on underreporting rate \\ \hline nI1 & 4 & (1 PI2) * cases & Mild infections progressing to moderate \\ \hline nI2 & 1 & PI2 * cases & Moderate progressing to severe \\ \hline nR0 & 0 & – & Initial recovered from mild infections \\ \hline nR1 & 0 & – & Initial recovered from moderate infections \\ \hline nR2 & 0 & – & Initial recovered from severe infections \\ \hline nO & 0 & died & Initial deceased individuals \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 6: Estimated parameters for COVID-19 clinical progression and literature sources. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l l l} \hline \hline
**Quantity** & **Value** & **Source** \\ \hline Proportion of severe infections & 15\% & [47] \\ \hline Time from symptoms to ICU admission & 12 days & [51; 52; 47] \\ \hline Transmission distance \(\zeta_{1}\) & 1 m & [51; 52; 47] \\ \hline Transmission probability \(\zeta_{2}\) & 90\% & [51; 52; 47] \\ \hline Duration of severe infection & 6 days & [Time from symptoms to ICU admission] \\ —[Duration of mild infections] \\ \hline Proportion of critical infections & 5\% & [53; 47] \\ \hline Time from hospitalisation to death & 14 days & [54; 55; 49; 52; 54] \\ \hline Duration of critical infection & 8 days & [Time from hospital admission to death] \\ —[Duration of severe infections] [52] \\ \hline Time from onset of symptoms to death & 20 days & [Duration of mild + severe \\  & + critical infections] [55; 56; 52] \\ \hline Case fatality rate & 2\% & [57; 58; 56] \\ \hline Period & 8 days & [Incubation period] \\  & + 1/2 [Duration of mild infection] \\ \hline Effective reproduction & 1 (0.98–1.1) & CMMID 1 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\begin{tabular}{l l l} \hline \hline
\\ \hline Duration of mild infections & 2 days & [61; 62] \\ \hline Period & 7 days & [Incubation Period] + 1/2[Duration of mild infection] \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 4: _Cont._