# Toward Climate-Neutral Heavy Industry: An Analysis of Industry Transition Roadmaps
## 1 Introduction
Decarbonization of heavy industries constitutes more than a technological transition. Heavy industries are deeply embedded in our economies and societies through a range of complex interconnections across multiple systems [22]. Indeed, this deep embeddedness creates a significant lock-in to current patterns of carbon-intensive industrial activity [23]. As such, industry decarbonization represents a major socio-technical transition, involving co-evolutionary shifts in markets, business models, policies, infrastructure, consumer behavior, norms and institutions [24; 25; 26; 27]. The transition to a more decarbonized industrial system is also deeply political and context-specific [28]. Socio-technical transitions can unfold along different pathways, each having the potential to create different winners and losers [27; 29]. As a consequence, transition processes are highly contested, with powerful incumbent actors resistant to decarbonization pathways that threaten their dominant positions and interests [22; 30; 31]. Under these circumstances of uncertainty and contestation, navigating a path toward industry decarbonization can be a significant challenge [27]. One approach to build momentum and overcome inertia around industry transition is through the use of roadmaps, which provide a predetermined goal or target associated with a desirable future and set out possible pathways, strategic plans, actions, and policies required to reach that point [32; 33]. Since the first (technology) roadmap was published by Motorola in 1987 [34], the approach has been adopted (and adapted) by different sectors for supporting strategy and innovation, with application in business, corporate, public, and national initiatives [35]. Roadmaps have long been a feature of national policy geared toward decarbonization of the energy sector [36]. In recent years, some countries have started to develop roadmaps for decarbonizing their heavy industry sectors [19]. Industry transition roadmaps can serve as analytical tools for understanding, framing, and shaping complex transition processes. They offer an opportunity to set out the timing and sequencing of policy, investment, and innovation in such a way that reduces the risk of industries being locked into higher emission trajectories due to the long lifespans of industrial assets [37; 38]. Perhaps most importantly, roadmap processes can open up space for actors with different interests to negotiate and construct multi-faceted decarbonization pathways [19; 39]. Over the past decade, a number of countries have begun to develop industry transition roadmaps and plans [19]. These roadmaps have been predominantly compiled separately by different constellations of actors, with limited standardization or uniformity in their methodologies and reporting. Although there are increasing efforts to build international collaboration on industry transition (e.g., through mission-oriented partnerships [40; 41] and coalitions of ambitious first movers [42; 43]), there remains no systematic analysis of these roadmaps to support such endeavours, leading to limited opportunity for cross-learning or combining efforts. In this paper, we contribute to filling this gap through a structured analysis of industry transition roadmaps in 13 countries. We compare and contrast roadmaps to identify similarities and differences in the way they address the multi-faceted systemic changes--in policy, finance, and technology--that need to happen to achieve industry transition. This research adds to the growing literature on industry transition and offers useful insights to policymakers and industry stakeholders on the breadth of actions being planned to support industry decarbonization across the world. The paper is structured as follows. Section 2 explains the materials and methods used in our study. Section 3 presents the results of our analysis. Section 4 discusses the insights from our findings, and Section 5 concludes the paper.