## 3 Results and Discussion
### Load and Electricity Generation in July 2030
Non-renewable electricity generation (\(f_{\text{non-RES}}\)) increases slightly at the annual level, from 34.9% to 36.8%, but significantly more in the summer months, from 34.1% in July 2024 up to 43.7% in July 2030. This is caused by the increase in fossil fuel generation in the summer months when renewable energy availability (wind and hydro) is low. Between July 1 and August 31, and comparing 2024 to 2030, hard coal generation increases by 26% (from 224 GWh to 282 GWh), while CCGT generation increases by 77% (from 524 to  
Figure 7: Projected hourly load and generation for the average July 2030 day in Croatia, assuming increased electricity demand and expansion of the power plant portfolio. 929 GWh). In the rest of the year (1 September-30 June), renewable energy availability is high and fossil fuel generation remains comparable. A slight increase of only 2% (from 2861 to 2921 GWh) between 2024 and 2030 has been estimated. Increasing generation from flexible and dispatchable CCGT will be necessary to accommodate the growing share of intermittent VRE sources in the electricity mix. Between 2024 and 2030, CCGT increases by 27% (from 2878 to 3654 GWh). On the other hand, baseload hard coal generation reduces by 35%, from 731 GWh in 2024 to 478 GWh in 2030. Overall, the share of fossil fuel generation increases slightly at the annual level, from 19.7% in 2024 to 22.0% in 2030, but more significantly in the summer months, from 20% in July 2024 to 30.4% in July 2030. The net import dependency in July 2024 was 27.1% but it should decrease to only 1.6% by July 2030. The net import dependency of 11.3% in 2024 should change into a net export of 3.7% by 2030. Although the share of fossil fuel generation increases, the carbon intensity of the power sector will reduce due to the relatively larger increase in renewable energy generation. In 2020, the carbon intensity for the power sector in Croatia was 293 g CO\({}_{\rm 2 eq}\)/kWh\({}_{\rm el}\), while the renewable share was 47.1%. In 2024 the carbon intensity fell to 223 g CO\({}_{\rm 2 eq}\)/kWh\({}_{\rm el}\), while the renewable share increased to 53.8%. By 2030, the carbon intensity for the power sector will further reduce as the renewable share of generation increases to 66.9%. Taking that the carbon emission factors (in g CO\({}_{\rm 2 eq}\)/kWh\({}_{\rm el}\)) are equal to 820 for coal, 490 for CCGT, 230 for biomass, 301 for reservoir hydro, 45 for solar PV, 38 for geothermal, 24 for run-of-river hydro, 12 for nuclear, and 11 for wind power [58], the carbon intensity for the power sector will reduce to 197 g CO\({}_{\rm 2 eq}\)/kWh\({}_{\rm e}\). Croatia's last operational coal-fired power plant (TE Plomin 2) is scheduled to cease operations by 2035, further reducing the carbon intensity of the power sector. The main contribution of this analysis lies in quantifying the benefits and challenges of increasing solar PV and wind integration, while also examining how they can be effectively balanced with dispatchable generation. The obtained results are specific to Croatia; however, they are a showcase for other EU countries facing hotter summers.