# The Hydroological Balance in Micro-Watersheds Is Affected by Climate Change and Land Use Changes
## 1 Introduction  
Temerate forests provide numerous ecosystem benefits, but among them, hydrological provision and regulation stand out. In watersheds with forest cover, trees ensure the continuous flow of the hydrological cycle [1]. The forest is the layer of the earth's surface responsible for the capture and buffering of rainfall, the control of surface runoff processes, the promotion of water infiltration, and the influence on the recharging of aquifers in order to maintain stable levels, among other functions [2, 3, 4]. However, the capacity of a basin to provide hydrological services also depends on climatology, land use, and topographic characteristics [5, 6]. Despite their importance, the current capacity of ecosystems for the provision of hydrological services is in decline [7] since they are subject to alterations and effects of global change, the rates of change of which are increasing rapidly. According to [PERSON] [8],the components of global change are (i) climate change (global warming, increased climate variability, etc. ); (ii) changes in biogeochemical cycles (increased carbon emissions into the atmosphere, increased nitrogen and sulfur deposition, changes in ozone concentration, etc. ); and (iii) changes in land management and use (deforestation, ecosystem fragmentation, changes in logging regime, fire management, etc.). However, the global change affects terrestrial ecosystems differently according to the type of community and the dominant factor [9]. Climate change affects water resources worldwide, particularly at the basin level [10; 11; 12]. The hydrological cycle will accelerate with an increase in temperature and will change evapotranspiration and precipitation [10; 13; 14]. The change in the distribution of the intensity and frequency of rainfall will affect the flow of surface runoff [15; 16]. Temperature increases affect the structure of forests [17] and their geographical distribution [18; 19], their phenological cycles [18; 20], and their fecundity [21]. The ability of forests to provide ecosystem services can be severely impacted by these disturbances [22]. In addition, an increase in climate-related disturbances may exceed the ecological resilience of forests. As a result, ecosystems may be permanently altered as tipping points are crossed [22]. Changes in land use imply a loss of forest cover that alters the hydrological cycle [23; 24]. These changes generate a decrease in aquifer recharge and dry bodies of water and generate intense runoff [25]. Changes in forest land use endanger the accessibility of hydrological ecosystem services [26]. The main change in land use in the study area is due to high-severity forest fires [27]. Anthropogenic action and extreme climate changes have altered the natural fire regime in several forest ecosystems, and these changes affect the health of forests, with increases in fires, pests, and forest diseases [28]. Climate changes mean that warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate disturbances by fires, droughts, and insects, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances caused by wind and pathogens [22]. For this reason, it is necessary to have a knowledge of the current and future state of water resources at the level of the hydrographic basin in Mexico [29], given the effects of global changes related to climate and land use. One of the ways to demonstrate climate change and the effects of land use changes on the availability and distribution of water resources is through scenario modeling. Scenarios are conceived and model alternative futures as a strategy to explore trajectories of change [30]. If the effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle are incorporated into these models, the models are even more effective [29]. In Mexico, applied models have been mostly related to the supply and demand of hydrological resources and climate change [15; 29; 31].