# Spatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya
## 3 Results
### Projected Rainfall Erosivity and Soil Erosion Rates in Kenya
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Scenarios** & **GCMs** & **Precipitation** & **Change** & **Rainfall Resivity** & **Change** & **Average Region** & **Change** & **Erosion Density** & **Change** \\  & **(mm)** & **(\%)** & **(MJ mm ha: 13 - 13 - 7)** & **(\%)** & **(MJ mm ha: 13 - 7 yr: 1)** & **(\%)** & **(MJ ha: 13 - 13 )** & **(\%)** \\ \hline  & Baseline & 601.1 & 0.00 & 1665.9 & 0.00 & 4.76 & 0.00 & 2.77 & 0.00 \\ \hline  & CCMA & CASD-22.6 & 869.7 & 44.7 & 3486.1 & 109.3 & 9.48 & 99.16 & 4.01 & 44.77 \\  & CESD-42.6 & 665.9 & 10.8 & 2126.3 & 28.2 & 5.51 & 15.76 & 32.1 & 15.88 \\ RCP-2.6 (2030s) & CSIRO & MK36.0-6.2 & 581.0 & -3.3 & 1733.9 & 4.1 & 4.63 & -1.68 & 2.98 & 7.58 \\  & MK5.2-6 & 503.3 & -6.8 & 1600.4 & -3.9 & 4.08 & -14.29 & 2.86 & 3.25 \\  & RCP-2.6 (2030s) Average & 669.2 & 11.3 & 2239.2 & 34.4 & 5.93 & 24.58 & 3.27 & 18.05 \\ \hline  & CCMA-CAMSA-28.5 & 851.1 & 41.6 & 3344.8 & 100.8 & 9.12 & 91.60 & 3.93 & 41.88 \\  & CESD-42.8 & 753.1 & 22.3 & 4327.6 & 46.3 & 60.1 & 26.26 & 3.32 & 19.86 \\ RCP-8.5 (2030s) & CSIRO & MK36.0-8.5 & 657.0 & 9.3 & 2128.1 & 27.7 & 5.70 & 19.75 & 3.24 & 16.97 \\  & MK5.8-5.8 & 588.2 & -2.1 & 1774.8 & 6.5 & 4.55 & 4.41 & 3.02 & 9.03 \\  & KP-4.5 (2030s) Average & 707.9 & 17.8 & 2421.2 & 44.8 & 6.34 & 33.19 & 3.38 & 22.02 \\  & (2030s) Overall Average & 688.6 & 14.6 & 2330.0 & 39.9 & 6.14 & 29.0 & 3.33 & 20.22 \\ \hline  & CCMA-CAMSA-22.6 & 8820.0 & 46.7 & 3621.1 & 118.0 & 10.02 & 110.50 & 4.12 & 48.74 \\  & CESD-42.6 & 730.6 & 21.5 & 2470.6 & 48.3 & 6.26 & 31.51 & 31.94 \\ RCP-2.6 (2080s) & CSIRO & MK36.0-6.2 & 643.4 & 7.0 & 2001.1 & 21.3 & 5.35 & 12.39 & 3.14 & 13.36 \\  & MWDC-5.2-6 & 546.6 & -9.1 & 1529.6 & -8.2 & 3.95 & \(-\)17.02 & 2.80 & 1.08 \\  & RCP-2.6 (2080s) Average & 700.7 & 16.6 & 2413.1 & 44.9 & 6.40 & 34.45 & 3.34 & 20.58 \\ \hline  & CCMA-CAMSA-28.5 & 1113.2 & 85.2 & 3912.6 & 134.9 & 15.10 & 217.23 & 3.51 & 26.71 \\  & CESD-42.8 & 584.1 & 40.6 & 8118.8 & 87.2 & 7.78 & 63.45 & 3.69 & 33.21 \\ RCP-8.5 (2080s) & CSIRO-MRS-8.5 & 768.3 & 2.78 & 2778.4 & 66.8 & 7.43 & 56.09 & 3.62 & 30.69 \\  & MK5.8-5.8 & 636.9 & 6.0 & 2001.4 & 201.1 & 4.98 & 4.62 & 3.14 & 13.36 \\  & KP-4.5 (2030s) Average & 840.9 & 39.9 & 2962.8 & 77.2 & 8.82 & 85.3 & 3.49 & 26.0 \\  & (2080s) Overall Average & 707.0 & 28.2 & 2683.0 & 61.1 & 7.61 & 99.87 & 3.42 & 23.47 \\ \hline  & CCMA-CAMSA-22.6 & 869.7 & 44.7 & 3486.1 & 109.3 & 9.48 & 99.16 & 4.01 & 44.77 \\ RCP-2.6 (2030s) & CSIRO-CAMSA-26.6 & 665.9 & 10.8 & 2126.3 & 28.2 & 5.51 & 15.76 & 3.21 & 15.88 \\  & CSIRO-MRS-6.0-2.6 & 581.0 & -3.3 & 1733.9 & 4.1 & 4.63 & \(-\)1.68 & 2.98 & 7.58 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 14: Percent change in average rainfall prosivity, soil erosion rates and erosion density under climate change across Kenya. CCCMA_CANESM2 RCP 2.6 (2080s) produced the largest percentage change of erosivity density, followed by CCCMA_CANESM2 RCP 8.5 (2030s) (Figure 12). The projected mean annual erosion rates for the CCCMA_CANESM2 GCMs were notably high amongst all the other GCMs under all scenarios, with CCCMA_CANESM2 RCP 2.6 recording an increment of 99.16% in the 2030s and a 217.23% increase in the 2080s under RCP 8.5, respectively (Figure 13). The overall average soil erosion rate of all the GCMs ensembles in the 2030s time-slice demonstrated a 29% increase compared to the baseline period, while for the 2080s period, a +59.87% change was noted (Figure 14). All the GCMs revealed increments in future erosivity values across all Kenya regions in the years 2030s and 2080s under RCP 8.5, except CSIRO_MK3.6.0 RCP 8.5 (2030s) (\(-\)3.9% for the coastal region), MIROC-5 RCP 8.5 (2030s) (\(-\)3.2% and \(-\)15.7% for the northern and Rift Valley regions, respectively) and MIROC-5 RCP 8.5 (2080s) (\(-\)5% for rift valley region) (Table 15). The MIROC-5 GCM produced the most varied changes, including the lowest change of \(-\)25.1% for the Rift Valley Region in the 2080s under RCP 2.6.