# Spatial Assessment and Prediction of Urbanization in Maseru Using Earth Observation Data
###### Abstract  
The availability of geospatial data infrastructure and earth observation technology can play an essential role in facilitating the monitoring of sustainable urban development. However, in most developing countries, a spatiotemporal evaluation of urban growth is still lacking. Maseru, Lesotho's capital and largest city, is growing rapidly due to various socioeconomic and demographic driving forces. However, urban expansion in developing countries has been characterized by entangled structures and trends exacerbating numerous negative consequences such as ecological degradation, the loss of green space, and pollution. Understanding the urban land use and land cover (LULC) dynamic is essential to mitigate such adverse impacts. This study focused on mapping and quantifying the urban extension in Maseru, using Landsat imagery from 1988 to 2019, based on the Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifier. We also simulated and predicted LULC changes for the year 2050 using the cellular automata model of an artificial neural network (ANN-CA). Our results showed a notable increase in the built-up area from 15.3% in 1988 to 48% in 2019 and bare soil from 12.3% to 35.3%, while decreased agricultural land (21.7 to 1.7%), grassland (43.3 to 10.5%) and forest vegetation (5.5 to 3.2%) were observed over the study period. The classified maps have high accuracy, between 88% and 95%. The ANN-CA projections for 2050 show that built-up areas will continue to increase with a decrease in agricultural fields, bare soil, grasslands, water bodies and woody vegetation. To our knowledge, this is the first detailed, long-term study to provide insights on urban growth to planners and other stakeholders in Maseru in order to improve the implementation of the Maseru 2050 urban plan. urbanization; land use and land cover (LULC) changes; ANN-CA; Landsat; change detection; prediction; Lesotho +
Footnote †: journal: Medical  
and other modern infrastructure [7]. This transformation is often associated with the loss of agricultural land, pollution in the air, land and water, flooding, and the depletion of surface water bodies and groundwater sources [8]. Urbanization has negative effects on nations, serving as a breeding ground for unemployment, poverty, and inequality, among others [9]. It has also led to food insecurity [10], high crime rates, environmental degradation, the construction of unplanned settlements, and the uncontrolled haphazard growth of cities without proper planning, which has become a problem for governments and city dwellers [11]. However, it is also worth noting that with urbanization comes economic development and growth, especially when coupled with proper planning: a gain that is currently unrecognized in most countries of the Global South due to weak institutions and ill-resourced local planning authorities. The effective management of urbanization resulting from LULC changes and associated environmental systems requires evidence-based approaches to mitigate and adopt undesirable changes [5]. The central city in Lesotho, Maseru, is situated just over the Caledon (Mohokare) River from South Africa. The city was first established as a police camp on the river's eastern edge following the 1869 Treaty of Aliwal North between the British Empire and the Orange Free State Boer Republic. Maseru has since grown as a small town to provide commercial, educational and health functions. After independence in 1966, the city underwent significant changes, including the growth of government buildings. Maseru eventually became home to 60% of Lesotho's urban population in 1986. The main factor of this rapid urbanization is a combination of natural increase and internal migration.