# Optimization of Electricity Generation Technologies to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Egypt
## 2 Materials and Methods
### SIMPACTS Modeling  
The SIMPACTS model was developed by IAEA as an application for developing countries. The model is based on the EcoSense methodology applied in the ExternE study of the European Union. SIMPACTS consists of separate modules to assess the consequences to human health, agricultural crops, and buildings from exposure to atmospheric emissions of routine or steady-state processes such as power plants. It covers fossil-fired, nuclear, and hydro power plants. It first estimates the physical effects and health damages and then provides a monetary valuation of these damages. Translation of the physical effects results in damage costs or social burdens. When the damages are not accounted for in the market price of a particular product, they are called external costs [19]. For airborne pollution, whether from fossil-fired or nuclear power plants, the model utilizes a simplified version of the impact pathway analysis (IPA), also known as the damage function approach. The first IPA step identifies the emission source and prepares an inventory of the airborne releases. The second step estimates the changes in ambient concentrations of various pollutants (emission rate), radioactive emissions, or deposits using atmospheric dispersion models. SIMPACTS uses separate atmospheric dispersion models to calculate the dispersion of pollutants in air. It uses the Gaussian plume model to estimate the pollutant concentrations. Figure 4: Historical data for net export of electricity for Egypt. Figure 5: Scenarios used in sensitivity analysis. A local model (5 km \(\times\) 5 km) was used in which the dispersion of primary pollutants (species emitted at the source) was influenced by stack parameters and weather data. On the other hand, a regional model (50 km \(\times\) 50 km) was used in which chemical transformation, dry deposition, and precipitation deplete the pollutant from the air. The regional concentrations can be predicted using the Eulerian or Lagrangian transport models such as the wind rose. The dispersion model can provide information on the transportation of pollution and methods of exposure and can calculate the risk. The quantification of physical effects is called exposure response functions (ERFs). ERF is used to relate the change in pollutant concentration to a physical effect on the relevant receptors (e.g., number of asthma attacks). ERF can be estimated using two conditions, as expressed in Equation (3). \[ERF_{xy}\left\{\begin{array}{c}0.007\times\left(C_{xy}^{BG}\right)^{2}-0.259 \times C_{xy}^{BG}\,\ \ C_{xy}^{BG}\leq 39\ \mu g/m^{3}\\ 0.241\times C_{xy}^{BG}\ \ \ \ \,\ \  
Egypt plans to construct a nuclear power plant in the El Dabaa site. El Dabaa lies 296 km from Cairo on the north coast and is served by the El Alamain International Airport. According to the agreement between Egypt and Rosatom, four units of VVER-1200 will be constructed. The nuclear waste, engineering, procurement and construction contract includes the provision of on-site facilities for processing and storing low- and intermediate-level waste (LIIW). After an on-site storage period of 10 years, the LILW will be transferred to the Egyptian Atomic Energy Authority (EAEA). Spent nuclear fuel will first be kept in spent fuel pools at the reactor site for a maximum of 10 years. After wet storage, the spent fuel will be transferred to a dry storage facility. This facility will be within the NPP site [8]. In the present study, a similar unit is simulated using the SIMPACTS software. The SIMPACTS software can estimate the environmental effect of radioactive releases from nuclear power plants deposited on the ground and in vegetation during routine operation. These radioactive releases affect human health via external and internal exposure through inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides in the air and food, respectively. Table 5 lists a summary of the input data used to simulate the El Dabaa nuclear power plant by SIMPACTS to assess the environmental impact.