## 2 Methods
### Construction of Scenarios with Stakeholder Consultation  
Our modeling framework followed a multistage process (Figure 3). Using a previously published approach, we elicited opinions on our modeling process from a small group of stakeholders. The researchers took the view that in their limited role, stakeholders would serve to validate assumptions the researchers made in creating maps, or if they distrusted the results, we could make improvements. [PERSON] _et al._[18] used a rules-based framework for integrating stakeholder narrative data into a quantitative geographic information system (GIS) modeling method. We produced an initial LULC map projected for the year 2050 using this method with data and rules defined by the researchers. The initial rate of changes in land cover types were estimated through an extrapolation of the differences \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c} \hline
**Data Type** & **Description** & **Sources** \\ \hline Urban Growth & & Metro Regional Land and \\ Urban Growth & Includes current UGB plus accepted and proposed & Information System (RLIS), \\  & urban reserve areas (URAs), rural reserves with & City of McMinnville Planning \\ Boundaries & additional protection and some additional adjacent & Department, \\  & land in case growth exceeds current reserves. & City of Newberg Engineering \\  & & Department \\  & Includes all except a few small communities. A & RLIS, Mid-Willamette Valley \\ Zoning & statewide layer designating broad classifications & Council of Governments \\  & (forestry, agriculture and rural residential) was & (City of Dayton’s zoning estimated \\  & integrated with municipality zoning layers. & from online map) \\  & 632 claims joined to tax lot parcel data to make & Oregon Department of Land \\  & & Conservation and Development, \\  & & \\ Measure 49 & spatially explicit. Authorized claims collected from & State of Oregon Geospatial \\  & & \\ Claims & three counties making up the vast majority of the & Enterprise Office, Yamhill County \\  & & \\  & study area. & Assessor’s Office \\ High Value & Agriculture soils of U.S. Natural Resource & \\  & Conservation Service Class I and II (irrigated or non- & Oregon Spatial Library \\  & & \\  & Critical and restricted groundwater zones could & \\ Groundwater & possibly be an impediment to rural residential & \\ Restriction & development. Designated by the Oregon Department & Oregon Department of Water \\  & Zones & Resources \\  & depleted or used at an unsustainable rate & \\  & Lands off-limits to development for a variety of & \\ Protected Areas & reasons, including federal forest lands, city and state & RLIS, U.S. Fish Wildlife Geospatial \\  & parks, private green spaces and schools. & Services \\ \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 3: Data sources used to create a spatial mask and graded weight map used as inputs to a model, creating future scenario maps in the study area. detected in the NLCD 1992-2001 land cover change retrofit product [25], as well as the 2006 NLCD product. The researchers convened a workshop in June 2012, that lasted several hours. A project partner involved with the current environmental issues in our study area chose four professionals for the consultation. They represented a cross-section of land use interests, including a representative from the Oregon Department of Agriculture, a county planner, an economist with Portland Metro administrative and planning agency and a land use attorney. We presented the project background information and the LULC modeling method and initial maps. Workshop participants initially discussed what they knew about land use in the region. The workshop then evolved into discussion about the future of developed lands in the study area and the factors they considered relevant. As the discussion progressed, it became evident that the participants' opinions pointed to the state land use regulatory framework being the primary factor deciding where new developed land would be located over the next several decades. It yielded other important points.