# Predicting Pedestrian Crashes in Texas' Intersections and Midblock Segments
## 5 Results and Discussion

Table 5: Estimation results of NB for pedestrian crashes, city of Austin. shows a positive effect on pedestrian crash counts [8] and that four-leg intersections have a higher frequency of accidents than three-leg intersections [25]. Figure 5: Sensitivity analysis, Texas. (**a**) Intersections; (**b**) Midblock segments. Among the highway design variables, the estimates indicate that higher DVMT significantly increases the number of pedestrian crashes, which is a consistent finding among studies of this type, as seen in [12; 13]. Interestingly, the effect of DVMT is more critical for the midblock segments than for the intersection model, as suggested by the sensitivity analysis, where one standard deviation increase caused 52% more crashes at intersections and 187% more crashes at midblock sections. Other variables, such as the number of lanes and lane width, also contribute to higher pedestrian crash rates. Higher posted speed limits and longer median widths, in contrast, tend to coincide with a reduction in crash rates. Roadways with a high speed limit are related to higher risk, and pedestrians tend to avoid these areas as there is limited pedestrian infrastructure [12]. However, research findings indicate that, although the crash frequency is lower, the severity is significantly higher in areas with high speed [12; 13; 26]. Figure 6: Sensitivity analysis, city of Austin. (**a**) Intersections; (**b**) Midblock segments. One-way roads are related to fewer crashes at midblock segments, while this variable was not significant for intersections at a 95% confidence level. The effect on midblock crashes is likely due to the reduced exposure on segments (less distance to cross). The intersection model suggests that variables from both major and minor approaches have a similar effect. The minor approach has a slightly lesser (but still significant) impact, except for the number of lanes, which shows no significant effect. However, the one-way road (minor) indicator variable showed statistical significance for the model and as found for midblock segments, the effect is negative, suggesting that one-way roads led to fewer pedestrian crashes at intersections as well. Traffic attributes, such as AADT and the percentage of trucks, are also highly related to an increase in the crash rate at intersections. The roadway functional class is compared with local and collector roads using the indicator variables for arterials (freeways and highways are not included in the model). The results indicate a positive and significant effect, where arterial roads tend to have a higher number of pedestrian crashes than local and collector roads for both intersections and midblock segments. This effect is consistent in previous research where arterials are categorized as a health problem due to high pedestrian crash frequency, excessive noise and pollution [27]. TxDOT-maintained roads (\"on-system roads\") show a negative effect, suggesting that the number of pedestrian crashes is lower on these roads compared to other roadways. However, this finding contrasts a previous research analysis of pedestrian crashes that uses Texas Roadway Inventory geometry [12]. This may be because this study developed an analysis at a smaller scale with separations between intersection crashes and midblock crashes, while previous studies aggregated crashes and analyzed only segment-level variables. Population is accounted for in the land use variable where urbanized areas (having a population of 50,000-200,000) are compared to rural, small urban, and large urbanized areas (refer to Table 2 for more details). Compared to averaged-sized urbanized areas, large urbanized areas (population greater than 200,000) show a positive coefficient, suggesting a positive effect. In contrast, small urban areas show a negative effect, suggesting that the rate of crashes is lower in these areas. This effect is consistent with expectations, since denser areas have a higher number of pedestrians, and the exposure is higher due to the presence of more vehicles.