# Accident Probability Prediction and Analysis of Bus Drivers Based on Occupational Characteristics
## 1 Introduction  
Compared with other modes of travel, urban public transportation has outstanding advantages such as a large passenger capacity and economical operation. The densely populated cities of China and the comprehensive coverage of routes have made it more and more prominent. It has become one of the most common modes of travel in Chinese cities and the first choice of most citizens for travel. However, its unique transportation characteristics also have certain disadvantages in some cases, mainly when bus accidents occur; its large-capacity transportation characteristics often cause large-scale injuries. Coupled with the complexity of urban road networks and traffic congestion, the number of people and vehicles, scope of the accident, and property damage in the event of an accident are incalculable. In this situation, relevant management departments need a practical method to assess the probability of bus driver accidents. This scientific method can provide theoretical support for managers to effectively grasp the propensity of bus drivers to accidents. More importantly, it can prevent significant bus accidents and ensure residents' safety. Previous studies of bus driver accidents have tended to explore the causal relationship between influencing factors and the probability of accidents. For example, [PERSON] [1] investigated the influence relationship between environmental factors, demographic characteristics, etc., and road traffic accidents; meanwhile, [PERSON] [2] assessed the risk of evaluatinginter-city public transportation accidents in terms of personal readiness, driver decision-making failures, and so on. The above studies on the relationship between influencing factors and accidents can support the assessment and prediction of traditional traffic accidents. It can also help discriminate the probability of accidents for bus drivers. But there are still some limitations. They usually start from the behavior before the accident, individual driver characteristics, etc. However, bus drivers, an occupational group of drivers, in addition to having the same characteristics as drivers in general, have occupational characteristics that are often the key indicators that determine the risk of their operation. For example, the above studies have considered unsafe behaviors such as distraction and fatigue but neglected dangerous behaviors during the more complex driving process of entering and exiting at stops. [PERSON] [3] found that bus drivers engage in a variety of unsafe behaviors that are more pronounced at bus stops and seriously endanger passengers' lives. [PERSON] [4] also found that the incidence of illegal parking by bus drivers at bus stops had reached 20.2%. Nevertheless, none of the current predictions of the probability of bus accidents have considered this aspect's impact. Furthermore, for example, [PERSON] and [PERSON] [5; 6] discussed the effects of bus drivers' working hours and work environment on their fatigue status and illness. [PERSON] [7] confirmed that fatigue and driver health status are directly related to accident occurrence. Still, bus drivers may experience a variety of traffic patterns during long-term driving, such as different rush hours and complex entry/exit processes, etc. It has yet to be answered whether such other states significantly affect the occurrence of accidents. Therefore, based on their existing characteristics, the occupational characteristics of a group of bus drivers (e.g., the length of driving in the peak, the risk of entering and leaving the station, etc.) can be combined to predict their probability of accidents. In this way, this study can assist accident prevention and road safety and proposes a new direction for the management of related companies. This article is organized as follows. In Section 2, prediction methods for bus driver accident occurrence are analyzed to describe the current advances and cutting-edge directions in the field. In Section 3, the objectives of this research are presented.