# Trend Forecasting in Swimming World Records and in the Age of World Record Holders
## 4 Discussion  
This study aimed to perform an analysis of historical data on swimming world records and the age of world record holders to identify trends and predict future events. There was a natural trend of improvement in WRs over the decades, with world record holders becoming older mainly in short-distance events. The future observations show a continuing improvement in WRs, with general stabilization in the age of world record holders but with a slight decrease in the age of males in long-distance events. The retrospective analysis of WR evolution revealed a natural trend of improvement over the decades, consistent with broader trends seen in other sports [19]. The advancements in science and technology, such as better swimwear, training equipment, and monitoring devices, have enabled athletes to push the boundaries of their capabilities. Beyond technological support, swimming has become more multidisciplinary with technical teams being more complete, higher in number, and more specialized in the different aspects of performance. Over the years, swimmers have had access to more sophisticated training programs, personalized nutrition or recovery plans, and in-depth analysis of racing strategies [20], all of which contributed to enhanced performance and record-breaking achievements. The growth of swimming as a sport has also led to increased participation and competition at both the elite and grassroots levels (e.g., as seen in the [PERSON] effect). Greater competition at younger ages often drives athletes to train harder and strive for excellence, leading to improvements in performance at an adult age [21]. The changes in the sport itself by the periodic amendments to the rules and regulations governing swimming competitions may also have influenced WR evolution. For example, changes in pool design, including deeper, deck-level pools, and more effective anti-wave lane ropes [22] and starting blocks [23], have impacted swimming performances and contributed to the progression of WRs over time. These changes have made the sport more complete and up-to-date and have triggered the globalization of swimming to another level, exposing athletes to different coaching philosophies and competition styles from around the world. This exchange of knowledge and expertise drives innovation and improvement in swimming performance on a global scale. The analysis of WRs revealed a notable trend in record frequency over the past few decades. Specifically, it was observed that between 1960 and 2010, there was a consistent increase in the frequency of world records being broken, which is in agreement with previous studies [24]. It is plausible that the significant improvements in swimming technology, evaluation techniques, and training processes during the mid- to late 20 th century, as well as the scientific development in swimming suit design up to 2010, led to more rapid advancements and thus a higher frequency of record breaking. The beginning of the 21 st century, mainly between the 2004 Athens Olympic Games and the 2009 Rome World Championships, represented the \"shiny-suit era\", with a large number of WRs being broken. However, it has been over a decade since FINA (nowadays World Aquatics) banned full-body tech suits, which can help explain the slowdown in the rate of world record breaking in the last couple of years. Contrary to this trend in WRs, there was a nuanced pattern observed in the age of world record holders over the decades. Previous analyses of Olympic swimming data showed that the age of peak performance has remained remarkably consistent until later in the 1980s [25]. However, this trend changed between 1992 and 2013, with the Olympic finalists being remarkably older than in previous editions [26]. The dual career initiative in sport (which comprises the successful combination of education, training, or work with sport) can be an explanatory factor for swimmers peaking later in their careers [27]. This may also be dependent on the characteristics of each event (short-distance or long-distance).