## 3 Results
### Future Forecast of GHG Emissions  
GHG emissions generation ratios are obtained for all MSs analysed following Equations (1)-(9). However, France, Ireland and Italy are removed because they reach \(FP_{c}\) values above 0.156 in one or more years (2023-2050) in one of the scenarios (high, average or low) analysed. This reflects the level of significance for Germany, France, Italy and Ireland identified in a study published by [PERSON] and [PERSON] [36] that analyses GDP and RES among other variables to understand GHG emissions trends in the Eurozone. Figure 5 shows the projection of GHG emissions obtained for the twenty-three EU MSs (without Germany, France, Ireland and Italy) until 2050 with a focus on the best and worst performers in each of the three scenarios (low, average and high growth rate). The model provides reasonable results that can be considered valid until 2050. Figures from scenario 1 (low growth rate) show that GHG emissions are yearly reduced in most of the countries, except in Luxemburg, Denmark and Sweden where there is a small growth due to an upward trend in the last ten years. This can be explained by the fact that these countries are already performing diligently, and may lack additional decarbonisation levers while their population and human activity (GDP) continue to grow as forecasted. As regards Sweden, in 2012, this country already achieved the target of 50% RES that was established by the government for 2020 [37]. Today, more than 40% of electricity production in Sweden is based on hydroelectric power [32], 40% on nuclear power and more than 10% on wind power, a fact that explains the extremely low emission rate in this country [38]. In addition, the society and industry reduced at minimum the energy  
Figure 4: GHGs estimated with the proposed equation vs. the amount of GHG emissions reported to Eurostat. consumption [39], and families mainly use biofuels to heat their homes [32]. A similar picture characterises Denmark, where RES dominates the energy mix [40], with 43% of the electricity coming from wind farms after investments in the late 1970s that led to the gradual closure of thermal power plants [32]. On the contrary, the highest decreases in GHG emissions are found for Croatia (34%), Latvia (38%) and Cyprus (41%), all characterised by a common trend in scenario 1: population slightly decreasing with the consequent reduction of activities that release GHGs into the air. However, in the last decades, these countries have not decreased their emissions yet [41], mainly because they have a very low degree of competition in the electrical market, meaning a market share of the largest generator in the electricity market above 60% in 2019 [42]. This means that currently, electricity has a high cost and there is less stimulus in phasing out fossil fuels. In general, an average growth rate in the next ten years (scenario 2) can result in an increase in GHG emissions for all MSs except Greece. This result can be explained by the reduction of the Greek GDP (\(-2.90\%\)) and consequent limited human activities, which have a consistent weight in the algorithm (25%) despite the other variables (population and RES) increases. Today, Greece still relies heavily on coal and lignite, which are extremely detrimental to environment [43]. However the trend started to change in the last decade, when penetration of renewables (mostly from wind and photovoltaics) was triggered from the phase-out of lignite-fired power generation targeted by the government by 2028 [44] and simultaneous feed-in tariff-supporting schemes in compliance with European Directives [45]. With respect to this, a survey undertaken by [PERSON] et al. [46] shows that financial payback is as important as simple paperwork for citizens. The model also shows a high growing rate projection (scenario 3) that highlights a strong increase in GHG emissions for all the EU MSs, in particular Estonia (585%) and Malta (1078%).