# Projected Wind Energy Maximum Potential in Lithuania
###### Abstract  
Harnessing wind energy in Lithuania is one of the most important ways to implement climate mitigation measures. This study aims to assess whether it is feasible to implement an energy greening plan in Lithuania in the 21 st century, hypothetically by using only wind farms, where the entire permitted area is developed with them. The wind turbine chosen for the study is a 3 MW wind turbine, installed at a height of 100 m. Wind speeds were estimated using the most up-to-date generation of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) climate scenario projections. The most likely climate model, SSP2-4.5, shows that the wind speed in Lithuania is more likely to decrease slightly over the 21 st century. The decrease could be as high as 3% in the coastal region, while in the eastern part of the country, which is the furthest from the sea, the decrease will likely be around 1.5%. Analysis of the projected data shows that the number of days with wind speeds below the cut-in speed is decreasing, while the number of days with wind speeds higher than the cut-off speed is increasing slightly. However, the number of days on which the operating conditions of the wind farm are met has changed only slightly. The results show that the potential maximum wind power generation exceeds Lithuania's renewable energy needs by at least three times, suggesting that the development of onshore wind farms in Lithuania can help to achieve the energy greening plans. climate change; wind energy; projections; renewables; shared-socioeconomic pathways +
Footnote †: journal: Applied Sciences  
currently the most widely used and most suitable renewable energy source for achieving the carbon-neutral target [14]. Wind energy offers the opportunity to meet climate change mitigation targets, as power plants can be built both onshore and offshore. In addition, it is worth noting that wind power plants have the lowest failure rate compared to other renewable energy technologies [15; 16]. Wind energy generation is popular and widely used because of its ability to produce large amounts of energy, and because onshore wind farms require far less agricultural land than solar power plants [17]. In addition, the energy density of sunlight in the territory of Lithuania is relatively low, which limits the potential of solar power plants. In order to assess the wind potential, the most significant factor is the wind speed, the change of which in the near future is mainly decided according to the IPCC projection data [18]. Previous studies on wind potential for this century have shown quite different results. For example, some studies have shown that wind speeds will increase in the future in the northern parts of central Europe, but will decrease in the south of the continent [8; 19; 20]. [PERSON] et al. argue that a significant decrease in wind speed is also very possible in Eastern Europe [21]. As [PERSON] et al. [22] note, wind speed variations in Europe can be up to \(\pm\) 12%. These estimates can vary considerably, as analysis of wind trends shows, and this does not allow us to determine the actual magnitude of the wind speed change [8]. Recently, climate-related data were obtained from the simulations based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (IPCC AR5 WG 2013) [1; 23; 24; 25]. The RCP scenarios approved by the IPCC indicate the likely total radiative forcing at the end of the century and the projected change in temperature. RCP scenarios have been updated, and new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP) have been introduced [25]. SSP scenarios are very similar to RCP, but new analysis elements are included, such as the social, economic and technological development to derive greenhouse gas emission scenarios with different climate policies [26]. Previous studies have mostly assessed trends in average wind speed or wind potential on a large scale [5; 7; 27; 28]. Such studies rarely consider areas that are unsuitable for wind energy, such as mountains, forests, roads, road protection zones, etc.