# Stochastic Modeling of the Al Hoseima (Morocco) Aftershock Sequences of 1994, 2004 and 2016
## 9 Conclusions  
Stochastic modeling was used to analyze three sequences of events that occurred in Al Honeima, Morocco, May 1994, February 2004 and January 2016. The analysis of the behavior of the decay rate of the three series, together with the composite stress pattern and the obtained \(b\)-value, led us to conclude that the 2016 sequence is the most complex of the three series, likely because of two different fault systems being activated--the main one corresponding to a strike-slip stress and the second one to reverse faults.  
The released energy analysis allowed us to characterize the occurrence of large aftershocks shortly after the mainshock better than it would if they occurred at random. However, further research is needed to estimate the recurrence period of such large occurrences, as well as the probability of exceeding a specific magnitude shortly after the mainshocks. This type of research could be conducted in other seismically active regions to investigate the behavior of the seismic series occurring in these areas. This could help to understand the characteristics of the earthquake generation process aimed at seismic forecasting studies.  
It should be noted that earthquake forecasting is the ultimate challenge for seismologists because it accumulates scientific knowledge about the earthquake occurrence process and is an essential component of any efficient risk-mitigation strategy [89; 90]. As stated by  
Figure 13: The obtained residuals vs. magnitude when fitting the observed data to the mGft power law (solid line) and theoretical distribution power law (dashed line). The 5% and 10% residual levels are shown as reference.  
different authors (e.g., [80; 91]), RETAS models can be applied to forecast the occurrence probability evolution of a certain sequence, providing the possibility to identify the type of clustering in future seismic series. This is an issue also related to, for instance, the fault distribution and possible fault interactions in the studied area.  
M.H. and J.A.P.: conceptualization, methodology, software, validation, formal analysis, data curation, writing, supervision, project administration and funding acquisition. D.G.: methodology and supervision. J.H.: software, validation, formal analysis, data curation and supervision. J.G.-Z.: validation, data curation, writing, supervision and funding acquisition. C.S.d.G.: validation, writing and supervision. B.R.: supervision. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.  
This research was partially funded by the Consejeria de Economia, Conocimiento, Empresa y Universidad, in the frame of the Programa Operativo FEDER Andalucia 2014-2020--Call made by the University of Jaen 2018 and projects FEDER DAMAGE, CGL2016-80687-R and B-RNM-301-UGR18, RNM148 and P18-RT-3275 (Junta de Andalucia).  
The seismicity data comes from the Spanish Instituto Geografico Nacional seismicity catalog (available on the IGN website at [[http://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal/sis-catalog-terremotos](http://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal/sis-catalog-terremotos)]([http://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal/sis-catalog-terremotos](http://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal/sis-catalog-terremotos)) (accessed on 27 August 2022)) and quoted papers.  
The authors are grateful to the editor and two anonymous reviewers for their comments, remarks and suggestions. This research was supported by the Algerian CRAAG and the Spanish Seismic Hazard and Active Tectonics research group. The authors also acknowledge the Spanish Instituto Geografico Nacional for to share the earthquake data used in this study.  
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interest or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.