## 2 Literature Review
### Bibliometric Review

Table 3: Best MAPE values achieved in other energy forecasting studies. Figure 2: Overview of the proposed solution. ### The Dataset

The dataset used in this study is composed of data from different sources, in the time range between January 2004 and November 2023. The energy consumption data are obtained from the Energy Research Company (EPE). The economic and industrial variables are extracted from the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA), except for the number of registered electric vehicles, which is obtained from the Brazilian Association of Electric Vehicles (ABVE). The source of the climatic variables is the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). The target variable, which is the focus of this study, is the energy consumption within the territory of Brazil, measured in megawatt-hour (MWh). The independent variables may be categorized into industrial factors, which are the production of assembled automobiles (units), oil production (average daily quantity-barrel), capital goods production (quantum index, taking 2012 as the base year), consumer goods production (quantum index, taking 2012 as the base year), intermediate goods production (quantum index, taking 2012 as the base year), fertilizer production (tons), industrial wage bill (percentage, taking 2006 as the base year), sales of motor vehicles in the domestic market (units), and registration of electric cars (units). The climatic variables are measured hourly in 473 municipalities across all 26 states and the Federal District of Brazil. In the consolidated dataset, the hourly values are grouped by month and averaged, encompassing all municipalities. The variables are total precipitation (mm), atmospheric pressure at station level (mb), maximum atmospheric pressure in the previous hour (aut) (mb), minimum atmospheric pressure in the previous hour (aut) (mb), solar global radiation (k/m\({}^{2}\)), air temperature-dry bulb (\({}^{\circ}\)C), dew point temperature (\({}^{\circ}\)C), maximum temperature in the previous hour (aut) (\({}^{\circ}\)C), minimum temperature in the previous hour (aut) (\({}^{\circ}\)C), maximum dew point temperature in the previous hour (aut) (\({}^{\circ}\)C), minimum dew point temperature in the previous hour (aut) (\({}^{\circ}\)C), maximum relative humidity in the previous hour (aut) (\({}^{\circ}\)), minimum relative humidity in the previous hour (aut) (\({}^{\circ}\)%), relative humidity (\({}^{\circ}\)%), wind direction (gr) (\({}^{\circ}\) (gr)), maximum wind gust (m/s), and wind speed (m/s). The economic variables are the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), measured in millions in Brazilian currency, R$), changes in prices of exports (%, taking 2018 as the base year), changes in prices of imports (%, taking 2018 as the base year), General Price Index-Domestic Availability (GPI-DA, or IGP-DI in Portuguese, taking 1994 as the base year), General Market Price Index (GMPI, or IGP-M, taking 1994 as the base year), National Consumer Price Index (NCPI, or INPC, taking 1993 as the base year), and Extended National Consumer Price Index (ENCPI, or IFCA, taking 1993 as the base year). The GPDI tracks price variations in various products, including commodities, durable consumer goods, and services. Prices are collected between the 1 st and the 30 th of the reference month for this index. In contrast, the GMPI collects price data between the 21 st of the previous month and the 20 th of the reference month. While both indices measure price fluctuations in similar products and services, they assign different weights to various categories. The GMPI is commonly utilized for rent adjustments and public tariffs. The NCPI and ENCPI track price changes for a basket of goods and services Brazilian households consume. The NCPI focuses explicitly on families with incomes ranging from 1 to 5 minimum wages, while the ENCPI covers all income levels. Both indices are inflation indicators in Brazil and are widely used by policymakers and economists to monitor changes in the cost of living.