## 4 Economic Analysis of the Solar ORC System
### Sensitivity Analysis  
A sensitivity analysis provides an overview of the effects of the parameters on the NPV of the investment, selling price of the electricity, Benefit-cost Ratio, and the Payback Period. The different scenarios that are considered for the sensitivity analysis can be found in Table 13.  
Table 14 represents the results of the NPV of NPV of all scenarios for ORC System with R245 fa/R152a (0.9/0.1) working fluid and Figure 24a-c show the variation of NPV as different variables change for the solar ORC system with working fluid mixtures (a) R245 fa/R152a (0.9/0.1); (b) R245 fa/propane (0.4/0.6); (c) butane/propane (0.8/0.2). It can be noticed that the change in Annual Benefit (Scenarios 4-5) affects NPV the most followed by the change in investment cost (Scenario 2-3). NPV is least affected by the change in annual cost (Scenarios 6-7). The negative NPV means that one is losing money on its \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c} \hline \hline
**Scenario** & **1** & **2** & **3** \\ \hline
**Economic parameter** & Standard scenario & 20\% increase in IC & 20\% decrease in IC \\ \hline
**Scenario** & **4** & **5** & **6** \\
**Economic parameter** & 20\% increase in AB & 20\% decrease in AB & 20\% increase in AC \\ \hline
**Scenario** & **7** & **8** & **9** \\
**Economic parameter** & 20\% decrease in AC & 20\% increase in IR & 20\% decrease in IR \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 13: Scenarios examined in this study. Figure 23: Selling price of electricity comparisons. Figure 22: (a) Annual cash flows; (b) Net present values during the life cycle of the ORC system for different mixtures. investment which can be seen in Scenarios 2, 5, 6, and 8. It can be concluded that increasing Annual Benefit and decreasing Investment Cost, Annual Benefit, and Interest Rate increases NPV. Table 15 provides the results of the investment criteria of all scenarios for the ORC system with R245 fa/R152a (0.9/0.1) mixture. The selling price of the electricity with regards to Annual Benefits changes from 0.19 USD/kWh to 0.23 USD/kWh, whereas with regards to EAC, it changes from 0.15 USD/kWh to 0.18 USD/kWh. BCR lower than one and a high payback period are also not a good indication of a profitable investment. Best scenario as per the investment criteria is Scenario 4, which has the highest NPV, BCR, IRR and the lowest payback period and the selling price of electricity with regards to EAC. Although the payback period for the solar ORC system is relatively high, 14 years, which is nearly equal to life cycle of the system, the selling price is competitive to the average residential price of electricity. The average residential price of electricity in Canada is \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Scenario**} & **Investment** & **Annual** & **Annual** & **Annual** & **Annual Cost** & **Interest Rate** & **Net Present Value** \\  & **Cost** & **Cost** & **Senefit** & **Annual Cost** & **Interest Rate** & **Net Present Value** \\ \hline
**1** & CAD 32,427.50 & CAD 2827.18 & CAD 3657.55 & CAD 830.38 & 6\% & CAD 0.00 \\
**2** & CAD 38,913.00 & CAD 3392.61 & CAD 3657.55 & CAD 830.38 & 6\% & – CAD 6485.50 \\
**3** & CAD 25,940.00 & CAD 2262.174 & CAD 3657.55 & CAD 830.38 & 6\% & CAD 6485.50 \\
**4** & CAD 32,427.50 & CAD 2827.18 & CAD 4389.07 & CAD 830.38 & 6\% & CAD 8390.37 \\
**5** & CAD 32,427.50 & CAD 2827.18 & CAD 2926.04 & CAD 830.38 & 6\% & – CAD 8390.37 \\
**6** & CAD 32,427.50 & CAD 2827.18 & CAD 3657.55 & CAD 996.45 & 6\% & – CAD 1904.87 \\
**7** & CAD 32,427.50 & CAD 2827.18 & CAD 3657.55 & CAD 64.30 & 6\% & – CAD 1904.87 \\
**8** & CAD 32,427.50 & CAD 3108.67 & CAD 3657.55 & CAD 830.38 & 7\% & – CAD 2936.33 \\
**9** & CAD 32,427.50 & CAD 2558.12 & CAD 3657.55 & CAD 830.38 & 5\% & CAD 3410.60 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 14: NPV of all scenarios for ORC system with R245 fa/R152a (0.9/0.1) mixture.