## 4 Conclusions  
From future projections, the increases in mean annual precipitation (\(\Delta\)P) and mean temperature (\(\Delta\)T) were expected to vary across different scenarios. These projections indicate the potential increase in both precipitation and temperature in the future, with the magnitude varying depending on the scenario considered. The climate models provide divergent future scenarios for the Nagavali and Vamsadhara watersheds. The ACCESS-CM2 model predicts a Warm-Dry future, indicating higher temperatures and decreased precipitation, while the Ecearth3 model predicts a Cold-Wet future, suggesting lower temperatures and increased precipitation. During the baseline period of 1975-2014, the Nagavali and Vamsadhara watersheds received 1259 mm and 1314 mm of annual rainfall, respectively. The percentage bias between the Indian Meteorological Department's precipitation data and the climate model's historical precipitation data for these watersheds ranged from \(-4.73\) to \(3.71\%\), showing that the climate model's precipitation data is fairly well correlated with the IMD's data, with some slight under- and overestimations. In the near and far future, the percentage change in precipitation for these watersheds under the Cold-Wet and Dry-Warm models will range from \(5.35\) to \(35.1\%\) and \(-1.57\) to \(8.48\%\), respectively, indicating that there will be an increase in precipitation leading to an increase in streamflow and sediment yield for these watersheds. The climate models used in the study exhibit different trends in predicting precipitation, streamflow, and sediment yield. The Cold-Dry model consistently underestimates the precipitation, streamflow, and sediment yield, while the Warm-Wet and Cold-Wet model shows the maximum overestimation under all scenarios in the near future. In the far future, Warm-Wet and Cold-Wet models show the maximum overestimation of precipitation, streamflow, and sediment yield under all scenarios. Overall, the far future period shows a greater percentage change in precipitation, streamflow, and sediment yield compared to the near future in all climate models and scenarios. These findings emphasize the importance of considering multiple climate models and scenarios to understand the  
Figure 10: Spatial distribution of annual average precipitation, surface runoff, and sediment yield based on the Cold-Wet (EC-Earth3) model. range of possible outcomes and plan effective measures for managing water resources in the studied watersheds. The analysis of IMD observed data and simulated results from different climate models reveals discrepancies in the timing of peak precipitation, streamflow, and sediment yield. While the observed peak of precipitation occurred in August, the simulated peak of streamflow and sediment yield occurred in September. However, the INMCM4 and MPI-ESMI-2 HR models showed that both historical and future peaks for all variables occurred in July. The ACCESS-CM2 model indicated that historical and future peaks occurred in August, while the Ecearth3 model showed a peak in August for precipitation but a peak in September for streamflow and sediment yield. The CanESM5 model displayed a peak in September for precipitation, but peaks in October for streamflow and sediment yield. Furthermore, the projected annual average precipitation, surface runoff, and sediment yield for the Dry-Warm and Cold-Wet models indicate a higher intensity compared to the historical period. This increase in sediment yield has negatively impacted the soil properties of agricultural lands, reservoir capacity, and drinking water quality in the Nagavali and Vamsadhara watersheds. These findings emphasize the necessity of implementing adaptive management strategies and watershed management structures to mitigate the adverse impacts of increased sediment yield and ensure the sustainable management of water resources in the Nagavali and Vamsadhara watersheds. The availability of data for model calibration and validation gives rise to a few limitations in most of the modelling studies.