# Evaluation of Turkey's Road-Based Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Future Projections
###### Abstract  
As road traffic in Turkey is a significant source of emissions due to the increasing number of vehicles on the road, the goal of this study is to calculate greenhouse gas emissions from Turkey's roads between 2010 and 2020, create an inventory, and estimate possible emissions until 2050. In the study, both greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (CO\({}_{2}\)) and nitrous oxide (N\({}_{2}\)O) and co-emitting air pollutants that indirectly contribute to climate change (ammonia--NH\({}_{3}\), nitrogen oxide--NO\({}_{X}\), sulfur dioxide--SO\({}_{2}\), carbon monoxide--CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds--NMVOC, and particulate matter--PM) were investigated. The study revealed that the total number of vehicles using state roads in Turkey increased by 60% between 2010 and 2020. As a result, emissions of CO\({}_{2}\), N\({}_{2}\)O, NH\({}_{3}\), NO\({}_{X}\), SO\({}_{2}\), CO, NMVOC, and PM increased by 29.6%, 24.2%, 0.5%, 19.9%, 9.9%, 18.2%, 21.5%, and 39.7%, respectively. When emissions were analyzed on a provincial basis, particular attention was drawn to provinces with high levels of urbanization. Based on forecast studies, the total number of vehicles registered for traffic will increase by 105% by 2050. Due to this increase, CO\({}_{2}\), N\({}_{2}\)O, NH\({}_{3}\), NO\({}_{X}\), SO\({}_{2}\), CO, NMVOC, and PM emissions are estimated to increase by 149.17%, 151.78%, 154.39%, 138.95%, 150.97%, 153.09%, 152.09%, and 151.47%, respectively. climate change; greenhouse gas emissions; sustainability; traffic; emission inventory; Turkey 2025  
15 June 2025  
use of fossil fuels and a transition toward the adoption of renewable energy sources. The paramount aspect of this agreement is the inclusion of both developed and developing nations in taking measures to reduce emissions through their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Turkey agreed to the Paris Agreement in 2015, provided that its request for financial and technological assistance in the new climate framework was fulfilled. It officially signed the agreement on 22 April 2016, declaring itself a \"developing country,\" and formally became a participant in the Paris Agreement on 10 November 2021. Turkey has revised its reduction target in its Intended NDCs from a 21% reduction by 2015 to a 41% reduction by 2030. Turkey's revised First NDCs encompass the entirety of its economy and incorporate extensive measures for mitigation and adaptation, along with an evaluation of implementation mechanisms. Turkey aims to reach its highest emissions point by no later than 2038. The revised objective for mitigation is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2053, as indicated by references [6; 7]. Due to developments in the transportation sector across numerous countries, there has been a notable rise in energy consumption and emissions, making the global effort to combat carbon emissions more challenging. Transport has generally become more efficient. Most vehicles emit less carbon dioxide per kilometer than previously. Their engines are more fuel-efficient. However, those gains have not kept up with growing transport volumes. More kilometers are traveled by vehicles for business and holidays, and more cargo is carried. This is the main reason why total emissions from transport have increased [8; 9]. On a global scale, the transportation industry accounts for 15% of overall greenhouse gas emissions and 23% of carbon dioxide emissions (CO\({}_{2}\)). Global emission data from transport networks show that the road sector has the highest GHG emissions, accounting for approximately 74.5% of emissions from passenger and freight transport. Furthermore, passenger cars account for 80% of the energy consumption in land transport [10; 11]. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) greenhouse gas emission inventory data for 2020 revealed that in Turkey, most CO\({}_{2}\) emissions from transportation (precisely 94.9%) originated from road transportation.