# A Component-Based Approach to Early Warning Systems: A Theoretical Model
## 1 Introduction
### Early Warning Systems  
According to the Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems: 2024 [9], the mortality rate caused by disasters is up to six times higher in countries where EWSs are less comprehensive or less developed. Compared to countries with well-established and complex EWSs, nations with limited or moderately developed EWSs experience a four-fold increase in disaster-related mortality. These figures are based on empirical data [9]. The availability of EWSs is also one of the key priorities of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2030 [10]. This objective is monitored using the following indicators:  
* \"Number of countries that have multi-hazard monitoring and forecasting systems,
* number of people per 100,000 that are covered by early warning information through local governments or through national dissemination mechanisms,
* percentage of local governments having a plan to act on early warnings,
* number of countries that have accessible, understandable, usable and relevant disaster risk information and assessment available to the people at the national and local levels,
* percentage of population exposed to or at risk from disasters protected through preemptive evacuation following early warning\" [10]. These systems should be supported by communication mechanisms as well as monitoring systems and technologies. At the same time, the use of low-cost and simple devices should also be encouraged [10]. According to The Report of the Midterm Review of the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, expanding the reach of EWSs requires partnerships with media, financial institutions, and educational organisations. Additionally, it is essential to enhance the reliability of risk information and strengthen the technological infrastructure, such as meteorological stations and river sensors [11]. According to the Guide to Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (2023) [12], an EWS consists of four key components, which are:  
* Disaster risk knowledge;Observations, monitoring, analysis, and forecasting;
* Warning dissemination;
* Preparedness and response capabilities. Disaster Risk Knowledge primarily involves risk assessment and the identification of elements and their characteristics within areas threatened by crisis events. In this context, it is essential to consider the characteristics of vulnerable populations and to collect relevant data, including historical records [13]. These data should then be compiled into a unified database. The second EWS component focuses on threat monitoring and detection. The core of this component is identifying the threats faced by different population groups. It is then necessary to implement monitoring mechanisms and technologies. For effective detection, it is also essential to define threshold values or indicators that signal an approaching threat. The third goal of Warning Dissemination is to ensure that warning information reaches all people without exception, considering all population groups and using various communication channels. The final EWS component is primarily concerned with vulnerable communities and population groups. Protection and preparedness plans for these groups should be developed [12]. The level of implementation of these components is described in The Report of the Midterm Review of the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2023). The data from which the following results were extracted are also available via the Early Warning for All Dashboard [14]. Since 2015, a growing trend in EWS implementation across UN member states has been observed. While these systems are often not yet fully developed as multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWSs), their gradual implementation is a positive step. As of March 2024, 108 countries worldwide reported having an EWS in place, representing 55% of all countries globally.