## 1 Introduction
### Research Gap and Originality Highlights  
Table 1 shows distinct studies and their modeling methodology. In the case of Zambia, few studies have discussed the future sustainable energy system interconnecting low-emission policies and combining demand in an energy supply model. A feedback loop linking the demand, supply, and environmental constraints is required in the Zambia energy system. This integration mechanism of energy supply-demand allows overall reductions or increase in specified energy source to be observed. Another challenge observed is the undetailed analytical framework that encompasses the specification of the future model horizon and effective policy actions on climate change in the methodological approach. This prevents a better analysis of the overall impact of policies. This paper comprehensively applies an integrated energy supply-demand modeling framework designed to develop reliable forecasts in the energy demand-supply model and utilize cost-effective future energy planning policies in Zambia. On the demand side, \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Purpose** & **Feen Senator** & **Horizon** & \begin{tabular}{c} **Mohological** \\ **Approach** \\ \end{tabular} & **Tool/Traubingen Enployed** & **Reference** \\ \hline Modeling energy requirements for foreign-supported differential water treatment systems for communities in Zambia (Zambia) and Exploied & Supply & - & Optimization & \begin{tabular}{c} **Informal mathematical model** \\ \end{tabular} & [14] \\ \hline \hline \multicolumn{1}{c}{Modeling of the world average potential in Zambia} & Supply & 2013-2060 & \begin{tabular}{c} Simulation \\ and dynamical downscaling approaches \\ \end{tabular} & High-COEDIX-Africa models & [17] \\ \hline \hline \multicolumn{1}{c}{Assessment of senior energy distribution and potential in Zambia} & Supply & - & Simulation & \
\begin{tabular}{c} **Aedes/self energy model (incolt)** \\ \end{tabular} & [14] \\ \hline \hline \multicolumn{1}{c}{Somistic analysis of the sustainable development of Zambia’s electricity source} & Demand and Supply & 2008-2020 &
\begin{tabular}{c} **Simulative/recurring/regeneration** \\ \end{tabular} & LEAP/MSSAGE & [14] \\ \hline \hline \multicolumn{1}{c}{Modeling sustainable long-term electricity supply-demand in Africa} & Demand and Supply & - & Accounting/Simulation & LEAP & [19] \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 1: Related works on energy modeling in Zambia, Africa. the research uses time series analysis to forecast future electricity demand in Zambia. To this aim, the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model is used to forecast electricity demand from 2019 to 2035, trained on 15 years of Zambia's monthly electricity demand. The supply energy model identifies a combination of resources and technologies needed to satisfy exogenously-specified electricity demand levels, using the cost minimization approach, considering technical, institutional, environmental, and economic constraints. The proposed model is developed to analyze the integration of renewable energy sources and emission reduction targets in Zambia. The scenarios considered are the baseline, no coal, carbon emission targets, and renewable energy share. The baseline depicts the energy mix of the country in 2019. A 30% share of the renewable scenario is also considered. Furthermore, the supply side analyzed emission reduction targets (10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50%). The overall modeling framework developed in this study is represented in Figure 3.  
The upcoming sections of the paper consider the demand and supply modeling framework. Section 2 consists of a suitable model to forecast energy demand for Zambia and integrate it into an optimal supply model. Section 3 covers the details of the data settings. Section 4 includes the results and discussion of the detailed scenarios as stated above.