# Accident Probability Prediction and Analysis of Bus Drivers Based on Occupational Characteristics
## 7 Discussion
The nature of the peak hour determined this phenomenon, in which the increased interferences and driving pressures led to a higher likelihood of collisions. Another aspect is that when the daily peak driving duration exceeded three hours, the accident risk of bus drivers decreased. This could be attributed to bus drivers often working across multiple peak periods within one day, resulting in a shorter average peak driving duration in each period, leading to more focused attention. This conclusion can help companies rationalize the work schedule of bus drivers and reduce the impact of peak periods of their driving. Additionally, the accident risk of bus drivers is also influenced by their driving duration on non-working days, reflected in the proportion of driving duration within the week (PDW). At high percentages of weekday driving, a significant difference for bus drivers of different ages was observed, with older drivers having a lower risk of accidents. For good reasons, older drivers are more comfortable with regularity and are better able to perform driving tasks than younger drivers. To address these findings, management authorities could refine their control strategies, optimizing internal periodic scheduling, which would help maximize the advantages of each category and achieve targeted administration. Moreover, the accumulated driving duration of the previous week (ADW) is also related to the occurrence of accidents, especially in terms of its effect on a single transit driver. The opposite impact relationship of (ADW) on accidents for two bus drivers in Figure 14a,b is very noteworthy. This requires management to rationalize bus drivers' working hours to control this feature's effect on accidents. Previous studies have indicated a significant correlation between the historical violation characteristics of bus drivers and their accident risks [61; 64]. Within this study, the feature significantly associated with the risk of bus drivers was the duration since the last violation. As this duration increased, the risk for bus drivers gradually increased. The potential cause might be attributed to the impact of criticism or education of drivers who have recently been involved in accidents or penalized for violations. Such interventions tend to heighten their attention, leading to a more conservative driving style and greater adherence to traffic rules, consequently reducing the probability of accidents. Conversely, with a longer duration since the last violation, a driver's alertness diminishes, behavioral constraints loosen, and accidents often occur due to negligence. Moreover, bus drivers without violations within six months had a notably low probability of accidents. This highlights that bus drivers who consistently maintain a good driving record over an extended period exhibit a relatively stable accident risk, further affirming the close link between violations and accidents. Bus drivers' entry and exit operations are essential components of their daily work, and their status is tightly aligned with the security of their own and passengers' journeys. [PERSON] [63] established that passengers are likelier to lose balance during boarding and alighting, making them susceptible to fatal injuries in non-collision incidents. In this study, the differences in the importance of features also shown in Figure 13a,b indicate their weightiness. The characteristic accident risk was suppressed when the degree of in/out station speed dispersion was in the normal range (taking the value of 8). Below or above the normal range, the accident risk increased. This safety threshold range reveals the stability regularity of a driver's driving, which can assist the government in monitoring their driving status and preventing potential safety accidents. The key indicators that influence their accident risk are azimuthal change, acceleration dispersion, and average speed. This relationship has also been consistently found in the research [65; 66].