# Global Power Dynamics in the Contemporary Space System
## 1 Introduction
The dynamics of international power politics are shaped by a range of factors, including competition over resources, capabilities, strategic alliances, and partnerships. These dynamics have the potential to shift power balances and produce changes in the structure of the space system. The analysis of global power dynamics in the space sector has been developed by several scholars [7; 8; 15; 16], based on the classical school of geopolitics developed in the late 19 th century and early 20 th century [17; 18; 19]. Some of the fundamentals of realism that have included outer space as a critical factor of the current international system have also been considered. Geopolitics posits that antagonistic relations among states will persist as a pervasive aspect of the human condition. The prospect of eliminating war is highly improbable. Indeed, the fundamental strategy for ensuring \"peace\" is to deter aggression by maintaining a favorable balance of power [20]. A group of experts is conducting an extensive examination of contemporary space politics. The examination includes the rise of new competitors, the redistribution of power, and the potential scenarios. The prevailing opinion among experts in the field is that the United States, Russia, and Europe continue to play a significant role. However, a notable shift has emerged, marked by the emergence of lesser-known states. These include independent space powers such as Japan, China, and India, as well as a broader group of new entrants, including Australia, Luxembourg, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, and South Africa [21]. This emergent paradigm of global power dynamics within the space system has been conceptualized by some authors as a multilateral competition for \"space club\" membership [22]. A prevalent viewpoint among experts in the field is that China is rapidly emerging as a significant player in the global space sector, particularly in comparison to the United States [23; 24; 25; 26; 27]. However, this does not necessarily imply an imminent challenge to the prevailing dominance of the United States. In the context of global space governance, the United States is regarded as a structural superpower, with the capacity to disseminate its preferred norms and to impede the diffusion of those it opposes, thereby constraining China's capacity to expand its space cooperation network [14]. According to some experts, the United States will continue to be the world's leading space power. They believe that the country has the necessary tools--national, commercial, and allied--to maintain its competitive advantage in space [9]. In contrast, other experts affirm that China and the United States are engaging in an international competition to scientifically explore and economically develop the Moon and other celestial bodies, also called the \"second space race\", and suggest that China will probably replace the U.S. space leadership sometime in the second part of the 21 st century [28]. Despite the existence of extensive research that seeks to explain the changes in global power dynamics within the 21 st century space system, the majority of them lack a systemic perspective that clarifies the distribution of power across the space system. This research proposes the application of systems science as a method to enhance our understanding of the rebalancing of power in the space system in recent decades. In the context of systemic changes, the primary research question of this paper is as follows: what are the main characteristics of the process of intersystem transition that the space system is currently experimenting with? This main question gives rise to several other specific questions. First, are states developing new strategies for the development of space power? Second, which actors in the space system are acquiring real capability to threaten U.S. leadership? Third, is there currently a redistribution of power happening in the space system?