## 4 Results and Discussion
### Urban LULC Prediction
#### 4.3.4 LULC Model Application
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Types** & **CA-MC** & **MLP-MC** & **Extrapolation** & **SD** \\ \hline Overall accuracy & 90.4473 & 90.8636 & 93.5340 & 94.6711 \\ Kstandard & 0.8908 & 0.8949 & 0.9212 & 0.9324 \\ Kno & 0.9113 & 0.9148 & 0.9364 & 0.9451 \\ KlocationStrata & 0.9706 & 0.9634 & 0.9588 & 0.9754 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 10: Accuracy assessment of simulated LULC maps in 2014 from four schemes. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**LULC Classes** & ** Landsat 8** & **CA-MC** & **MLP-MC** & **Extrapolation** & **SD** \\ \hline Agriculture & 4368.03 & 3715.57 & 3715.6 & 3814.48 & 4265.74 \\ Water & 123.56 & 138.47 & 147.58 & 148.48 & 123.01 \\ Urban & 3179.87 & 3761.32 & 3750.99 & 3677.12 & 3254.88 \\ Forest & 8.76 & 56.44 & 57.38 & 49.66 & 43.38 \\ Miscellaneous & 13.03 & 21.45 & 21.70 & 3.51 & 6.24 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 11: The actual and simulated area of LULC maps in 2014 from Landsat 8 and the transition probability calculated by MC, the extrapolation, and SD. Figure 7: Comparison of LULC simulation maps in 2014 from four schemes: (**a**) CA-MC; (**b**) MLP-MC; (**c**) Extrapolation; and (**d**) SD. To analyze the urban expansion of the BMR in 2035, this study used the simulated map from the SD scheme to examine the urban extent (Figure 9). The conversion between agriculture and urban areas plays as a primary role in the LULC change. The large urban agglomeration is located along the Chao Phraya River where the urban and built-up areas have increased dramatically since 1988. The urban area expanded itself over administrative boundaries, particularly in the connected zone between BM and Pathum Thani, Nonthaburi, and Samut Prakan. Those provinces play an important role as residential areas supporting the BM population and also as lands for industrial purposes based on the fundamental function of the city. Moreover, the urban area expands in a linear form along the main roads that connect neighboring provinces to the BM. On the other hand, the center of the BMR remains as most population dene zone where all built up areas will be constructed in response to land demands for business and commercial enterprises. Since the construction of the Bangkok Mass Transit System (BTS) and Mass Rapid Transit (MRT), many condominiums with medium and high classes were built along those lines to respond to the demand for urban lifestyles with reduced commutes to work. Furthermore, there is a different pattern of urban expansion that occurred in Nakhon Pathom. Its urban area has expanded from the center of the province and will continuously extend until 2035. There is also a scattered random pattern in the built-up area, in which farmers occupy the land near agricultural areas. This situation can be found predominantly in Nakhon Pathom. If the spatial planners do not consider this, it will create urban sprawl, which is already a crucial problem in that area. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c} \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**LULC Classes**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**Extrapolation**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**SD**} \\ \cline{2-5}  & **km** & **\%** & **km** & **\%** \\ \hline Agriculture & 2478.6 & 32.22 & 3735.72 & 48.56 \\ Water & 217.19 & 2.82 & 147.67 & 1.92 \\ Urban & 4896.27 & 63.64 & 3750.77 & 48.75 \\ Forest & 98.55 & 1.28 & 57.45 & 0.75 \\ Miscellaneous & 2.64 & 0.03 & 1.64 & 0.02 \\ \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 12: The simulated area of LULC maps in 2035 from the transition probability calculated by the extrapolation and SD. Figure 8: Comparison of LULC simulation maps in 2035 from the transition probability calculated by: (**a**) extrapolation; and (**b**) SD.