# Risk Assessment of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in China Based on Hazard Risk Theory
## 4 Conclusions  
Based on an analysis of historical tropical cyclone landfall data, this study identified the regions of the study area most affected by tropical cyclones, and summarized the temporal distribution and intensity characteristics of landfalling tropical cyclones. Guided by the theory of tropical cyclone hazards, a set of evaluation indicators based on natural factors was constructed, integrating hazard susceptibility and the sensitivity of the natural environment. Through the Analytic Hierarchy Process and ArcGIS spatial analysis, standardization and weighted overlay calculations were conducted using various indicator data. This process allowed for evaluation of the typhoon hazard risk in mainland China and Hainan, resulting in the formation of a comprehensive risk zoning map and analysis results. The main conclusions are as follows:  
1. Between 1949 and 2023, the overall number of tropical cyclone landfalls showed a fluctuating downward trend, with landfall frequency staying below the mean after 1986. In terms of intensity, strong tropical storms and typhoons accounted for the highest proportion, at 50.6% of the total, over the past 75 years. After 1980, the intensity of tropical cyclones making landfall in China increased by 12.4% to 14.7%. Landfalls primarily occurred from June to October each year, with August being the peak month. The occurrence of strong typhoons has gradually shifted from autumn to late summer, leading to more frequent typhoon events in the summer. Therefore, prevention efforts against tropical cyclone hazards should be intensified, particularly in summer and autumn.
2. Along the eastern coastal areas of China, the hazard susceptibility due to the direct impacts of typhoons is highest, then gradually decreases inland. Some areas in Jiangxi Province experience abundant precipitation, while central Liaoning, Jilin, and western Heilongjiang are influenced by Mongolian cyclones, resulting in persistently high average daily wind speeds and significantly higher hazard levels, when compared to surrounding areas.
3. The sensitivity of the natural environment is concentrated mainly in central Liaoning, Tianjin, eastern Hebei, Shandong, eastern Henan, central-northern Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shanghai, where flat terrain and low vegetation coverage are predominant.
4. The risk distribution characteristics present a decreasing trend from south to north and from east to west. On a larger scale, the southeastern regions of China remain high-risk areas for tropical cyclones, necessitating continued emphasis on hazard prevention efforts in key provinces and cities. However, while enhancing prevention measures in high-risk areas, corresponding measures should also be tailored based on the specific hazard situation in inland cities.  
Conceptualization, J.X. and X.X.; Methodology, J.X., X.X. and B.Y.; Software, J.X., X.X. and B.Y.; Validation, J.X.; Formal analysis, J.X. and W.W. ([PERSON]); Resources, J.X., B.Y. and X.X.; Data curation, J.X., X.X., B.Y. and W.W. ([PERSON]); Writing--original draft, J.X.; Writing--review & editing, J.X., X.X., B.Y., W.W. ([PERSON]) and X.J.; Visualization, J.X.; Supervision, W.W. ([PERSON]) and X.J.; Project administration, J.X.; Funding acquisition, W.W. ([PERSON]). All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.  
The investigation was supported by the Innovation Research Team Project of Natural Science Foundation of Hainan Province (Grant Nos.422 CXTD515) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.31570708).  
Not applicable.  
The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors on request.  
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.