# Spatial Assessment and Prediction of Urbanization in Maseru Using Earth Observation Data
## 3 Results
### Validation of LULC Maps  
We validated the classified maps for 1988, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2019 using test samples (30%). The overall accuracies for all the maps ranged from 88% (1998) to 95% (2008), as shown in Table 4. The kappa index values for the LULC maps used in this study ranged from 0.8 (1998) to 0.9 (2008), as shown in Table 4. The user's accuracy for all the years of study ranged from 67% for the agricultural fields in 1998 to 100% for the woody vegetation in 2008 as well as for the waterbody (2013) and bare soil (2019) (Table 4). The producer's accuracies for the LULC maps raged from 40% for the agricultural field class in 1998 to 100% for the bare soil class in 2003 and 2013 (Table 4).  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multicolumn{2}{c}{**Year**} & \multicolumn{8}{c}{**Classes**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**OA**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**KI**} \\  & & **AF** & **BS** & **BU** & **GL** & **WB** & **WV** & & \\ \hline \multirow{8}{*}{1988} & Reference total & 48 & 61 & 76 & 54 & 38 & 32 & & \\  & Classified & 47 & 54 & 90 & 48 & 39 & 31 & & \\  & Correctly classified & 42 & 52 & 72 & 46 & 35 & 27 & 89 & 0.86 \\  & UA (\%) & 88 & 85 & 92 & 85 & 82 & 84 & & \\  & PA (\%) & 89 & 96 & 80 & 96 & 90 & 87 & & \\ \hline \multirow{8}{*}{1993} & Reference total & 43 & 54 & 78 & 47 & 36 & 42 & & \\  & Classified & 42 & 56 & 90 & 46 & 33 & 35 & & \\  & Correctly classified & 40 & 49 & 75 & 43 & 32 & 33 & 90 & 0.88 \\  & UA (\%) & 90 & 91 & 96 & 91 & 89 & 79 & & \\  & PA (\%) & 95 & 88 & 83 & 93 & 97 & 94 & & \\ \hline \multirow{8}{*}{1998} & Reference total & 9 & 52 & 98 & 34 & 33 & 28 & & \\  & Classified & 15 & 51 & 94 & 36 & 33 & 28 & & \\ \cline{1-1}  & Correctly classified & 6 & 48 & 90 & 31 & 29 & 22 & 88 & 0.84 \\ \cline{1-1}  & UA & 67 & 92 & 92 & 91 & 88 & 79 & & \\ \cline{1-1}  & PA (\%) & 40 & 94 & 96 & 86 & 88 & 79 & & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 4: Confusion matrices for land use and land cover classification for Maseru city (1988–2019).  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline  & & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**1988**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**1993**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**1998**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**2003**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**2008**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**2013**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**2019**} \\  & & **Ha** & **\%** & **Ha** & **\%** & **Ha** & **\%** & **Ha** & **\%** & **Ha** & **\%** & **Ha** & **\%** & **Ha** & **\%** \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{1988} & AF & 6470 & 21.7 & 6091 & 20.4 & 4901 & 16.4 & 3161 & 10.6 & 1031 & 3.5 & 947 & 3.2 & 510 & 1.7 \\  & BS & 3671 & 12.3 & 6246 & 20.9 & 8347 & 28.0 & 9542 & 32.0 & 9850 & 33.0 & 10,252 & 34.4 & 10,538 & 35.3 \\  & BU & 4548 & 15.3 & 5739 & 19.2 & 8226 & 27.6 & 9265 & 31.1 & 11,515 & 38.6 & 12,520 & 42.0 & 14,302 & 48.0 \\  & GL & 12,911 & 43.3 & 9656 & 32.4 & 6341 & 21.3 & 6003 & 20.1 & 5618 & 18.8 & 4557 & 15.3 & 3138 & 10.5 \\  & WB & 583 & 2.0 & 453 & 1.5 & 424 & 1.4 & 422 & 1.4 & 413 & 1.4 & 401 & 1.3 & 381 & 1.3 \\  & WV & 1642 & 5.5 & 1641 & 5.5 & 1586 & 5.3 & 1432 & 4.8 & 1398 & 4.7 & 1148 & 3.8 & 956 & 3.2 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}  
\end{table}
Table 3: The total area per hectare (H) for different land use and land cover types from 1988 to 2019.