## 1 Introduction  
In the already highly regulated aviation industry, improving safety standards is a primary, constant, and ever-ongo goal for the entire aviation ecosystem [1]. Air transport is considered the safest method of transportation due to the close interaction between all the organizations that are part of the aviation ecosystem [2]. However, the need for rules and regulations has driven the aviation industry to use safer and more reliable technologies and procedures [2].  
One important way to minimize errors is to create a system that considers human factors, since these are one of the main reasons for accidents in industry. Since human error is inevitable, and although organizations increasingly tend to train their professionals to reduce this error, the feeling that technology is more reliable than humans lead them to be replaced by that same technology to mitigate the error. The number of accidents has decreased over time, but the decrease is not as significant if we consider the number of hours flown per occurrence [2]. Human errors are still the leading cause of air accidents in recent years, and there are several factors for them to happen; one of them is the lack of personnel, which jeopardizes the proper functioning of an operation because it will overload the remaining professionals in place. In other words, when there is a lack of staff, there is a higher possibility of errors occurring due to the stress factor of the remaining personnel. Although human error has been the most significant cause of accidents over the years in various studies, technical factors and environment have also had some relevance in this matter, still corresponding to a percentage, although minor, of significant air accidents. New technologies and new procedures have been introduced so that errors are increasingly fewer. Accidents caused by sabotage, which nowadays are not as likely to occur, have revolutionized safety on board aircraft and at airports, making them safer. Beyond all the internal factors in the industry that influence accidents and the number of flights during a year, external factors can also play a role. This is the case with economic factors such as inflation and the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP); these factors are also indirectly related to the number of flights per year and the existence of air accidents. This is expected since inflation often creates economic crises in various industries.  
The aim of this study is to statistically analyze the transport aviation data to understand this quantitative trend and then extrapolate it into a qualitative form. This research of quantitative order, based on a statistical analysis based on the aviation safety network, will aim to understand the trend of the evolution of air accidents, both quantitatively and by accident per flight hour. Besides the historical and forecast evolution of accidents over the next few years, it is possible to identify external factors such as economic factors that may influence and change the course of accidents and flight hour.  
The paper is structured as follows. Section 2 presents a brief state of the art of the hidden correlations between socioeconomic indicators and aviation accidents in the United States. Section 3 describes the methodology used in the research; and the database on civil aviation accidents in the last 40 years collected by the ASN. Section 4 shows the results of models applied, their validity, and the optimization of the algorithms. Finally, the conclusions are made in Section 5.