# Modeling Evacuees' Intended Responses to a Phased Hurricane Evacuation Order
## 2 Literature Review and Hypotheses
### Factors Affecting Warning Responses
#### 2.2.1 Perceptions  
An individual's perception of the credibility of the warning source affects their confidence in the warning message and thus their likelihood of taking the suggested protective action [35; 36]. This is supported by later studies that found that the credibility of the information source affects the effectiveness of evacuation warnings [37; 38], and individuals' trust (i.e., a response based on perceived credibility) in a warning source increases their probability of evacuation [36; 39]. Different information sources were also noted to have different perceived characteristics, such as expertise, trustworthiness, and protection responsibility [40]. The associated hypothesis is:  
**Hypothesis 1 (H1):**_individuals who think a government agency is more or equally responsible for their safety than themselves are more likely to comply with a phased evacuation order._  
Government agencies are generally seen as the most credible information source [41]. However, whether an individual can perceive such credibility (from the perspective of protection responsibility belief) affects their trust in the released information and subsequent decision-making.  
Previous studies have indicated that individuals who perceive greater personal risk are more likely to comply with the warning and take actions to protect themselves [12; 42; 43; 44]. Risk perception is the most consistent indicator in explaining evacuate/stay decisions [12], and is often expressed by multiple factors, such as an individual's perception of property damage or injury/death. One exception is the study by [PERSON] et al. [45], in which the authors developed a composite score expressing risk perception and found that it was significant in determining evacuation compliance. Risk perception itself is a subjective judgement, but it is related to hazard-exposure factors, such as proximity to the coastline/water areas and house structures. The following hypothesis is based on this discussion:  
**Hypothesis 2 (H2):**_individuals with greater risk perceptions are more likely to comply with a phased evacuation order._  
An additional type of perception is protective action perception, which is one's attitude toward evacuation in this case. The theory of reasoned action (TRA) distinguishes two types of attitudes: general attitudes toward an object (e.g., hurricane) and attitudes toward a behavior with respect to the object (e.g., hurricane evacuation) [46]. Past studies have found that attitudes toward a behavior are an important predictor of action [46]. Therefore, the TRA considers attitude toward a behavior along with subjective norm (related to normative beliefs) and perceived behavior control (related to behavior facilitators/impediments) as the three factors leading to the formation of a behavioral intention; people are expected to carry out their intentions when behavior facilitators are sufficient [47]. In the context of evacuation, evacuation perception, together with the two perceptions mentioned above (i.e., stakeholder perception and risk perception), are the three core perceptions in [PERSON]'s protective action decision model (PADM) framework [3; 10; 30]. The following hypothesis is related to evacuation perception:  
**Hypothesis 3 (H3):**_individuals who think evacuation is an effective protective action are more likely to comply with a phased evacuation order._