# Jakarta Pandemic to Endemic Transition: Forecasting COVID-19 Using NNAR and LSTM
###### Abstract  
In December 2021, the latest COVID-19 variant, Omicron, was confirmed in Indonesia. Unlike the Delta variant, the number of deaths in the Omicron type did not increase significantly and remained constant, even though the cases increased significantly. It is hoped that Indonesia will declare COVID-19 endemic. Jakarta is the capital of Indonesia and the first city where the new COVID-19 virus emerged. Therefore, we are trying to model COVID-19 cases in Jakarta and predict future cases to see if endemic conditions are identified. We applied Neural Network Auto-Regressive (NNAR) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) methods. It is found that the NNAR forecast better for positive confirmed cases with an R-squared 0.939 and the LSTM forecast better for cases of death with an R-squared 0.9337. The forecasting results for the next 7 days reveal that positive confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Jakarta will increase slightly. In addition, the death cases experienced a very small increase, only one new case. According to the results of this study, it can be concluded that COVID-19 in Jakarta will enter an endemic phase in Jakarta, with no substantial increase in cases and a low mortality rate. COVID-19; endemic; pandemic; neural network; machine learning; forecasting 20221257710339 Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU), as of 1 April 2022, a total of 6,015,748 confirmed cases with 155,164 deaths were documented [7]. In addition, Jakarta is one of the most impacted provinces in Indonesia, with 20% positive cases and 9% death nationwide. Jakarta, Indonesia's capital city, is one of the provinces with the highest degree of community transmission, indicating a high risk of COVID-19 infection for the general population [8]. The daily new COVID-19 cases in Jakarta from 2 March 2020 to 3 April 2022, are shown in Figure 1. This consists of the implementation of some stringent quarantine protocols in place. From Figure 1, COVID-19 cases in Jakarta appear to fluctuate. Many COVID-19 cases in this province are related to Jakarta's high social movement as Indonesia's capital city [9]. COVID-19 cases in Jakarta increased significantly on 12 July 2021, reaching 14,619 new cases. This lousy condition is related to the entry of the Delta variant into Indonesia. According to the Ministry of Health of Indonesia, the Delta variant was discovered in April 2021, and it is more transmissible and causes severe symptoms [10]. The delta variant of COVID-19 is causing an expanding crisis. This significant increase in positive cases has driven the demand for health services to increase sharply. The bed occupancy rate (BOR) in hospitals was high. Based on the data released by The Ministry of Health of Indonesia on 5 July 2021, Jakarta had a hospital BOR of 88% [11]. This high demand for health services caused a high mortality rate. Since this Delta variant spreads quickly, the government of Indonesia started to implement a movement restriction policy known as Indonesia Officially Imposes Restrictions Towards Community Activities (PPKM DARUART) on 1 July 2021 [12]. Implementing this PPKM Darurat cannot instantly reduce positive cases of COVID-19. As seen in Figure 1, despite PPKM being implemented on 1 July 2021, positive cases still increased significantly. Figure 1: The daily new cases from 2 March 2020 to 3 April 2022, in Jakarta. Some of the internal factors that caused the increase in COVID-19 cases were the community's increased domestic mobility and social activities that coincided with the Eid al-Fitr hometcoming period [13]. At the end of July 2021, COVID-19 cases began to decline. COVID-19 cases started to increase again in early 2022. The highest number of new cases in Jakarta was confirmed on 6 February 2022, reaching 15,825 new cases. This increase in positive cases was caused by the entry of the Omicron variant into Indonesia. On 15 December 2021, the Indonesian Ministry of Health found the first confirmed Omicron case in a patient [14].