# Prediction of the Dangerous Range of Dumps Based on a Dynamic Process
## 1 Introduction  
A dumping site refers to a place where waste soil, waste rock, waste residue, and other wastes are concentrated and discharged from mining operations. Generally, it contains a very large volume of waste material. Because it is an artificial loose accumulation of material, a dumping site often presents potential safety hazards that are affected by various factors. Without reasonable support measures, it can very easily deform and lose stability. Landslides, debris flows, and other disasters not only affect the normal production of mines but also pose serious threats to the lives and property of citizens and can damage the environment. For example, in October 1966, in the small village of Aberfan in southern Wales, the United Kingdom, a landslide occurred in a waste pile; it is known as the \"everlasting pain in the history of Wales\" urine disaster of the village of Aberfan. After several weeks of rain, coal mine waste soil was severely liquified into thick mud that flowed down steep slopes at more than 128 km per hour, killing 144 people, including 116 school children. On 30 April 2006, a dam-break landslide accident occurred when Zhen'an County Gold Mining Co., Ltd. of Shangluo City, Shaanxi Province increased the capacity of its tailings dam. The amount of tailings sand released was about 200,000 cubic meters; 76 residential houses were destroyed, 22 people were buried, 5 people were rescued, and 17 people were missing. On 22 February 2023, a large-scale landslide occurred in the Xinjing Coal Mine in Inner Mongolia. More than 50 operating vehicles were working at the bottom of the pit. The workers and vehicles at the bottom of the pit were buried instantaneously, resulting in 53 deaths and six injuries. The direct economic loss was CNY 204 million. In June 2017, alandslide occurred at a coal mine north of Athens in the northern region of Greece. Approximately 80 million cubic meters of earth and rock were displaced, causing damage to houses and evacuation of villagers, resulting in the burial of at least 25 million tons of lignite and losses of up to EUR 500 million. On 28 February 2022, a landslide occurred again in the Pagan Jadeite mining area in Kachin State, northern Myanmar. At the time of the incident, three excavation groups were on-site, with about 12 people in each group. In addition, there were more than ten maintenance personnel on the site. After the landslide, more than 50 workers on the site disappeared, and three excavators and a truck were also buried. Landslides are due to natural phenomena and human-induced waste dumps. Natural phenomena include earthquakes, rainfall, snowmelt, floods, surface water erosion, soaking, rivers, other surface water on the slope toe of the continuous erosion, etc. Human-induced waste dumps include, for example, unreasonable human activities, excavation of slope toe, blasting, violation of mining sequence, indiscriminate excavation, lack of professionals in some design units, poor location of reservoir site selection leading to dam foundation subsidence, violation of design construction, an illegal increase of loading, and improper safety evaluation of existing problems, all of which ultimately lead to the occurrence of accidents. Therefore, it has become a nonnegligible problem to study the stability of mine dumps and predict the range of possible risks from a collapse accident. A dump is a deposit formed by stacking materials, and it is characterized by particle size classification and particle breakage. Its stability is affected by many factors, such as the mechanical properties of the deposit, rainfall, earthquakes, external loads, bearing capacity of the foundation, slope gradient and height, topography, surface vegetation, and gully surface runoff. There are roughly three types of factors: the physical and mechanical properties of the deposit, the bearing capacity of the foundation of the dump, the design of the dump, and the stacking process.