# Analyzing and Forecasting Vessel Traffic Through the Panama Canal: A Comparative Study
## 1 Introduction  
Panama is a country located in Central America, whose economy relies heavily on port and logistics activities. The Panama Canal, strategically positioned at the narrowest point between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, serves as the primary route enabling rapid interoceanic communication in the Western Hemisphere. It plays a key role in the country's growth and development [1] as well as in international trade [2, 3]. Since its inauguration on 15 August 1914, the Canal's high-capacity maritime infrastructure has had a significant global impact by reducing distances and maritime communication times [4, 5]. By enabling shorter shipping routes, the Panama Canal contributes to efforts aimed at reducing the carbon footprint of maritime transport, as it significantly lowers fuel consumption and CO\({}_{2}\) emissions. This reinforces its role not only as a vital economic infrastructure, but also as a tool for advancing sustainable maritime transportation. The Canal's infrastructure has driven major economic and commercial advancements that have endured for over a century. In 2016, the expansion of the Panama Canal was completed--a project that included the construction of new locks capable of accommodating larger vessels with greater draft. This development reflects a broader trend in the maritime industry toward achievingeconomies of scale through the use of larger ships, known as Neopenamax vessels, thereby enhancing global maritime transport capacity [6]. Indeed, the Interoceanic Waterway is utilized by approximately 180 maritime routes, connecting 1920 ports across 170 countries [7]. The principal types of cargo transported through the Canal include grains, containerized goods, petroleum and its derivatives, vehicle carriers, and cruise liners [8]. Most of the Canal traffic flows between the Atlantic coast of the United States and the Far East, while trade between Europe and the western coasts of the United States and Canada represents the second most significant route. However, other regions--particularly neighboring countries in Central and South America--are proportionally more dependent on this vital artery to support their economic development and expand trade. In fiscal year 2024, the Panama Canal recorded a total of 11,240 transits by both large and small commercial vessels, which transported 210 million long tons of cargo and generated toll revenues amounting to USD 3.381 billion [9]. Undoubtedly, the number of vessels transiting the Panama Canal has increased following its expansion and is closely linked to financial indicators and the economic activities of transportation, communication, logistics, trade, and tourism. In this context, maritime transport has gained increasing relevance in recent years, fostering growing interest in enhancing the operational efficiency of navigable waterways [10]. Accordingly, the analysis of vessel traffic through the Panama Canal, together with the development of predictive models, has emerged as a critical tool for anticipating demand and informing strategic decision-making. The scientific literature includes numerous studies employing forecasting methods across various fields [11; 12; 13; 14; 15]. However, forecasting vessel traffic represents a particular challenge due to the inherent complexity of its behavior, which is multifactorial in nature. This type of traffic is influenced by a variety of operational and structural factors, such as the vessel type, industrial production levels, characteristics of logistics operations, and specific configuration of each port, among others [16]. Nevertheless, as long as a well-compiled historical series is available and an appropriate forecasting model is used, the results can be considered reliable. Historically, maritime traffic forecasting has primarily relied on conventional statistical methods, given their effectiveness in capturing linear and seasonal patterns in time series. In this regard, the study by [PERSON].