# Seismic Hazard Evaluation and Strain Dynamics in the
## 4 Discussion and Findings
### Spatiotemporal Energy Release Patterns and Geodetic Strain Analysis
Moreover, during a 50-year period extending to the late 1950s, the intersection of the SFZ and GFZ exhibited the highest and most intense energy density. However, the notably lower energy density observed from the 1970s to the end of 2025, compared to earlier periods, may indicate the possibility of energy accumulation inthis region. These findings highlight that the spatial and temporal distribution of energy density should be used as a fundamental parameter in seismic hazard analysis to determine whether it follows a pattern. It is believed that detailed fault segmentation studies and current stress measurements in critical areas, such as the intersections of GFZ-SFZ and SFZ-EF, where energy distribution is concentrated, will provide valuable information for preventing potential hazards in the coming years. The spatial density and energy maps of earthquakes occurring in a region reflect the past activities of faults. While these data provide valuable insights into the future behavior of the faults, obtaining current energy accumulation data of the fault is crucial for seismic hazard analysis. When examining the current strain rates in the study area, it is notable that the strain rates are particularly high at the eastern and western ends of the SFZ (Figure 10). There is a relationship between the Sundrngi Segment of the SFZ, which is defined as a tectonic block boundary in the literature, and the GFZ, which is characterized by high strain rates. The strain rates in this region increase from east to west, particularly in the eastern part of the Sundrngi segment, reaching approximately \(\sim\)90 ns/yr in the west. In this segment, the extensional regime is dominant, although significant compressional regimes are also observed. This notable difference in strain rates between the Sundrngi segment and the other segments of SFZ is evidence of the relationship between the two zones. No earthquake records directly associated with this rotational relationship between SFZ and GFZ are present in the instrumental period earthquake catalogs. Also, no paleoseismological studies have been conducted on the past activities of these faults yet. However, when examining historical earthquake catalogs, two historical earthquake records can be identified that might be associated with the relationship between the two zones (AFAD Historical Earthquake Catalogue). These earthquakes are located approximately 20-25 km north of GFZ, within the borders of Bigadic (Balkesir). The earthquake, located 25 km to the north, occurred in 1826 and had a magnitude of VIII. Another earthquake, located 20 km near the Sundrngi segment, occurred in 1891, but there is no information available regarding its magnitude. In the Simav segment, located to the east of the Sundrngi segment and characterized by a dominant extensional regime, the strain rates in the area where the 2011 Simav earthquake (Mw: 5.8) occurred are lower compared to the west of the segment. In the western part, the strain rates are approximately 70 ns/yr, while in the eastern part, they are around 50 ns/year. In the easternmost part of the zone, at the Sinanpasa segment, the dominant regime is extensional in the NE-SW direction, with strain rates around 60 ns/yr. In the Saphane, Abide, and Banaz segments of the zone, the strain rates are around 50 ns/yr. These strain values do not fully support [PERSON] et al. [81]'s suggestion of a seismic gap in the central section of the SFZ. However, although this situation can be explained by the low slip rates of the relevant segments and, thus, their slower accumulation of energy, there is no strong evidence to support this. Moreover, although [PERSON] and [PERSON] [143] suggest an accumulation of approximately 4 mm on the right-lateral fault identified as the Simav Fault Zone and associated with the surface rupture of the 1970 Gediz earthquake, the accuracy of the GNSS station velocities does not allow for confirmation of the certainty of these data.