# Women's Singles Tennis Match Analysis and Probability of Winning a Point
## 4 Discussion
In this game situation (first serve followed by a short rally), for all the points analysed, the serving players won the point in the range of 65% to 75%, depending on the surface on which the game was played. On clay, they achieved the point with a winner 26% of the time, while on faster surfaces (hard court and grass) this percentage varied between 31% and 34%. In a range of 34% to 38% of cases, they won the point after an unforced error by their opponent, regardless of the surface. On the other hand, the serving players on the return side won the point 24% of the time on clay and in a range of 15% to 18% on fast courts, mainly by taking advantage of unforced errors by the serving player. This strategy proved to be the most effective of all possible strategies. Unlike the men, for whom it was determined that the best strategy in this type of situation for the serving player was to look for a winner [22], in women's tennis, there were no notable differences in the probabilities of winning a point between winners and unforced errors of the opponent. This could be due to several factors: on the one hand, it has been shown in previous studies that women slow down earlier than men and that men perform movements with greater strength and speed; on the other hand, it has been shown that women hit the ball a smaller number of times inside the court or near the net, which makes it more difficult to achieve winners. However, it is clear that the tennis player on the return must strive to induce unforced errors in her opponent during the first few strokes of a short rally, as this strategy has been shown to be the most effective, as has also been observed in the men's category [22]. Given the low number of points won with winners by the receiver in these situations, it would be best for the playing strategy to focus on directing the ball to areas where unforced errors are more likely to occur. This could include zone 3 (baseline) especially and the side areas of the court (zones 4 and 5). Another option would be to try to prolong the point, as it has been observed that there is a greater chance of winning the point in extended rally situations. Medium-length rallies comprised around 20% of all points analysed, while long rallies accounted for approximately 9%, in line with previous research [4; 7]. Although these rallies are not very common, the percentage that occur in critical situations, such as break points, has not yet been analysed. Therefore, although it might initially be thought that they are of lesser importance in training, we must remember that it has been established that players who master these types of rallies in a match have up to 68-72% and 56-58% chances of winning the match afterwards [3; 7]  
In any case, as we have observed, the probability of winning a point varies significantly according to the combination of serve and rally used. When playing with a first serve and the point ends in a short rally, the probability of winning the point is relatively high (65% on clay and 75% on grass and hard court). However, when using a second serve and ending the point with a short rally, or when the point ends with a medium or long rally, the probability of winning the service point decreases notably, reaching values close to 50%. These findings have a significant impact on match strategy. If the player is serving, it is crucial that she seeks to resolve the point before five strokes are reached, either by hitting winners or by taking advantage of unforced errors by the opponent. On the other hand, if the tennis player is in the return game, it is essential to extend the length of the rally to increase the chances of winning the point. In this context, it is more effective to focus on provoking unforced errors in the opponent than to look for winners. Match strategy should be aimed at sending the ball to areas where the opponent is uncomfortable, which can be more effective than looking for winners.