# Resilience Assessment for the Northern Sea Route Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network
## 3 Model Established for NSR Resilience Measurement
### Resilience Capacity Decomposition for the Arctic Northeast Route
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c} \hline \hline
**No.** & **Disruption** & **Description** \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{1} & \multirow{2}{*}{Weather forecast inaccuracy} & The weather along the Arctic Northeast Route is complex and variable, making it difficult to predict; as a result, the NSR security system suffers from information uncertainty associated with weather forecasts [60] \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{2} & \multirow{2}{*}{Sea chart incomplete} & The navigation chart for the NSR is still incomplete due to complex factors such as the geological conditions, lack of hydrographic ship information, and political intervention [61] \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{3} & \multirow{2}{*}{Communication/positioning unavailable} & According to the database for maritime accidents (DAMA of Det Norske Veritas), missing safety instructions and defective communication can impact the safety level of navigation in Arctic waters [62] \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{4} & \multirow{2}{*}{Malfunction of power plant} & Based on the comments from experts of the Canadian Transport Agency, the malfunction of power plants, such as engine failure and power and back-up power failures, are the primary causes of ship collisions, foundering, and grounding along the NSR [11] \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{5} & Damaged propeller/steering gear & The propeller and steering gears of ships that use the NSR can be severely damaged by icebergs, which cause considerable disruptions to the NSR safety [60] \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{6} & \multirow{2}{*}{Malfunction of deck machinery} & In the case of extremely low temperatures, some deck machinery may malfunction, thus impacting normal ship operation along the NSR [61] \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{7} & Restricted function of nav. instruments & The navigation instruments on ships may not work properly due to the influence of high latitudes, which can put the ship at risk [63] \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{8} & \multirow{2}{*}{Low temperature} & Low temperatures can easily affect the performance of security-related equipment such as the hull, windlass, and mooring winch [64] \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{9} & \multirow{2}{*}{Iceberg/floating ice} & The existence of sea ice, such as icebergs, floating ice, and old ice, is the main feature that distinguishes the NSR from other sea lanes globally; the impact of ice on the safety of ships is continuous and inevitable [65] \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{10} & \multirow{2}{*}{Poor visibility} & Poor visibility caused by steam fog, ice fog, blowing snow, and other processes along the NSR is frequently encountered and limits the watchkeeping of navigation officers [64] \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{11} & \multirow{2}{*}{Rough sea} & Most of the currents in the NSR are along the coast of a shallow-water continental shelf, and the currents in the narrow straits between the islands are strong, thus creating challenges for polar navigation [66] \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{12} & \multirow{2}{*}{Magnetic storm} & Magnetic storms can greatly disturb the NSR security system in the field of communication and influence navigation instruments [35] \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{13} & \multirow{2}{*}{Obstacles other than ice} & Underwater obstacles such as reefs, beaches, and unknown explosives are potential disruptions that threaten the effectiveness of the NSR precautions [67] \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{14} & \multirow{2}{*}{Seafarer competency} & Seafarers on ships sailing along the NSR are faced with considerable ship handling and emergency challenges, which can potentially affect the function of the NSR precautions [61] \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{15} & \multirow{2}{*}{Geopolitics} & The ships sailing along the NSR have to consider different laws and regulations, including those at the local, national, and international level; additionally, sometimes political considerations are involved, making the decision-making process very complex. [68] \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 3: Descriptions of the disruptions to the NSR resilience.