# Development of Fire Consequence Prediction Model
## 3 Configuration of the Prediction Model
### Application Example  
Ships are equipped with accident-specific response manuals for responding to marine accidents. Figure 11a shows the emergency response procedure for a ship fire. In the early stages of the fire, the first discoverer identifies the type and size of the fire, and a response team is deployed in the case of initial suppression failure. According to the conventional accident-response system, an accident-response team is mobilized if the first discoverer of a fire in the early stage identifies the type of fire and fails after attempting early suppression [19]. Fundamental measures are required to prevent fires in advance and to extingh the initial fire, and it has been reported that only 19% of fires are detected by fire alarms [20]. Therefore, if the size of the fire can be determined in advance, it is possible to respond efficiently to ensure initial fire suppression [21]. This study focused on estimating the size of a fire in real time according to changes in the conditions through condition monitoring in an FGSS room. If the size of the fire can be estimated in real time, an immediate response can be performed depending on the size of the fire, which can  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Thermal Radiation**} & \multicolumn{3}{c}{**Distance**} \\ \cline{2-4}  & **10 m** & **50 m** & **100 m** \\ \hline TR \(<\) 25.0 kW/m\({}^{2}\) & C1 & C1 & C2 \\
25.0 kW/m\({}^{2}\)\(\leq\) TR \(<\) 37.5 kW/m\({}^{2}\) & C1 & C2 & C3 \\ TR \(\geq\) 37.5 kW/m\({}^{2}\) & C2 & C3 & C3 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 6: Matrix of consequence.  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c} \hline \hline \multicolumn{1}{c}{**Consequence Hole Size**} & **1. C1** & **2. C2** & **3. C3** \\ \hline
1. Small (5 mm) & (1) & (2) & (3) \\
2. Medium (25 mm) & (2) & (4) & (6) \\
3. Large (60 mm) & (3) & (6) & (9) \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 7: Matrix of the size of fire.  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c} \hline \hline \multicolumn{1}{c}{**Thermal Radiation**} & **Effect** \\ \hline
37.5 & Significant chance of fatality on instantaneous exposure \\
25.0 & Significant chance of fatal injury on indefinite exposure \\
12.5 & Significant chance of fatality on extended exposure and a high chance of injury \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 5: Effect of thermal radiation.  
also help the captain in the decision-making process. However, in this case, a delay in responding to an incident or an incorrect response may occur if a medium or large fire occurs at an early stage, and a more rapid and stable accident response will be possible if the size of the fire is predicted in the early stage via system monitoring using the algorithm proposed in this study. Figure 11 shows the accident-response processes before and after applying the algorithm [19].  
The proposed accident-response procedure is illustrated in Figure 11b. The proposed process predicts the risk of a fire accident using the amount of LNG that leaks through sensors and predicts the size of the hole according to changes in the condition of the monitoring system when a fire accident occurs. In a ship fire situation, the level of accident response is determined through the predicted value of the fire size, and decision making for the equipment and appropriate response measures for the accident can be supported.