## 5 Prediction of Household Carbon Emission in China
### Carbon Emission Development and Reduction Approaches  
Extensive studies indicate that, in the absence of systematic and stringent interventions, household carbon emissions tend to continue increasing, with peak emission times delayed. Under a high-carbon scenario, [PERSON] et al. project that per capita household carbon emissions in various provinces and cities will rise to 6.4 tons by 2060 [101], while [PERSON] et al. predict that Wuhan's emissions peak may be delayed until 2040 [104]. Similarly, [PERSON] and [PERSON] report that Beijing's household carbon emissions in 2035 will be 25% higher than in 2020 [105]. Considering aging populations and different scenario assumptions, [PERSON] et al. find that peak HErC in some regions may be further delayed [107]. [PERSON] et al. also observe continued emission growth in certain provinces even after the national peak [102]. Additionally, [PERSON] and [PERSON]'s case study on Fujian Province [103] and [PERSON] et al. 's exploration of four consumption patterns for 2025 [110] both suggest that even with some mitigation measures, household energy demand will remain difficult to curb in the short term. While [PERSON] et al. [106] and [PERSON] et al. [111] observe significant potential for reducing household carbon emissions under low-carbon scenarios, the actual outcomes remain heavily dependent on policy and technological investments. Without stricter and more systematic mitigation efforts, the continued rise in household carbon emissions and delays in peak emissions will be difficult to reverse in the short term, both temporally and spatially. To address this challenge, a multi-level and integrated emission reduction strategy is essential. This includes policy and technological interventions as well as optimizing household behavior and socioeconomic structures. Numerous studies suggest that improving building energy efficiency, such as through retrofitting, setting higher energy standards for new buildings, promoting distributed heating systems, and adopting energy-efficient appliances, can significantly reduce household carbon emissions [100; 104]. However, the feasibility of such measures varies by region. For instance, while urban areas with well-developed infrastructure can rapidly implement energy efficiency retrofits, rural and lower-income regions may face financial and technical constraints, requiring additional government subsidies and technological assistance. Additionally, stringent energy efficiency standards for new buildings may be more effective in high-income regions, whereas in developing areas, incentives for incremental retrofitting and cost-sharing models could enhance policy adoption. Optimizing the energy mix, reducing energy intensity, increasing the share of clean energy, and advancing electrification and renewable technologies also yield significant mitigation effects [103]. Nevertheless, the transition to clean energy is uneven across regions. Coastal and economically developed provinces have made substantial progress in renewable energy integration, whereas many inland regions still rely heavily on coal-based energy sources [114]. This underscores the need for region-specific energy transition pathways, balancing energy security, affordability, and decarbonization goals. Encouraging low-carbon consumption and lifestyles, such as through enhanced environmental education, promoting low-carbon diets, and supporting green transportation, has been shown to effectively reduce household carbon footprints [106; 110]. Furthermore, to address complex factors such as declining household sizes, population aging, and regional development disparities, existing research advocates for multidimensional policy coordination. This includes differentiated fertility and housing policies, promoting the sharing economy, and supporting multigenerational households [105; 109]. However, regional economic structures and cultural preferences must be considered in implementation.