# A New Algorithm Model Based on Extended Kalman Filter for Predicting Inter-Well Connectivity
## 7 Conclusions  
In this paper, a state variable-based dynamic capacitance model (SV-DC model) has been established to analyze the inter-well connectivity and its influencing factors of single-well systems and multi-well systems. The main conclusions are as follows:  
1. The proposed innovative SV-DC model, enhanced with intelligent algorithms, combines dynamic data and geological features to more accurately identify inter-well connectivity and its evolution. By leveraging AI-driven techniques, the SV-DC model significantly improves the interpretation of complex fluid transfer patterns between \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Tracing Pattern**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**Proportion of the Number of**} & \multirow{2}{*}{**Typical Well**} \\  & **Injector-Producer** & \\ \hline Increase–decrease–increase & 19.7\% & C31-H14H; B21-B16 \\ Decrease–increase–decrease & 21.5\% & C31-H02H; B21-B15 \\ Continuous rise & 58.8\% & C03-H03H; C03-B26 HS \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 8: Statistics of the change in connectivity volume in Qinhuangdao 32-6 oilfield. wells/well groups, surpassing traditional static and dynamic analysis methods in capturing dynamic characteristics and providing more precise and adaptive insights. 2. The dynamic changes in injection rate and liquid production rate were deeply studied, and the sensitivity analyses of permeability, permeable channel width, injection pressure differential, and duration were carried out. The results show that higher permeability, wider permeable channels, and longer injection pressure maintenance can significantly enhance inter-well connectivity coefficients and reduce time-lag coefficients. 3. The production performance analysis of the multi-well system was carried out, including two well group configurations of four-producer-one-injector and four-injector-one-producer. It is found that inter-well connectivity in multi-well systems is significantly affected by well-group configuration and inter-well interference effects. The four-injector-one-producer system shows high connectivity and low time lag for the high-permeability channel. In contrast, for the four-producer-one-injector system, there is an abnormal situation of low inter-well connectivity, which is speculated to be a symptom of the formation of ineffective circulation channels. 4. By applying the SV-DC model, the dynamic changes in inter-well connectivity coefficient and connectivity volume were analyzed, and the connectivity levels of ineffective circulation channels were divided according to the changes. The results show three typical change patterns of the development of ineffective circulation channels. These change patterns provide an important basis for optimizing oil fields' injection and production strategy and contribute to improving oil recovery. In conclusion, through systematic numerical simulation and model verification, this study reveals the dynamic characteristics and influencing factors of inter-well connectivity, providing important theoretical support and practical guidance for oilfield development. This algorithm model can be used to calculate the inter-well connectivity coefficient and as a quantitative evaluation method for ineffective circulation channels. It can be conveniently programmed into the reservoir development system platform to serve field operators. This method has obvious advantages because it can dynamically identify relevant parameters and provide updated values at each time step, thus achieving real-time monitoring and improving the accuracy of oil reservoir management decisions. Methodology, L.G., S.W., Z.K., S.D. and X.Y. ; Software, L.G., S.W., Z.K. and M.Z. ; Validation, L.G., S.W., Z.K., S.D. and X.Y. ; Formal analysis, L.G. and X.Y. ; Investigation, L.G., [PERSON] and M.Z. ; Resources, H.Y. and M.Z. ; Data curation, L.G., X.Y. and M.Z. ; Writing-original draft, L.G. ; Writing-review & editing, L.G. ; Supervision, S.W., Z.K. and S.D. ; Project administration, S.W.