## 1 Introduction
Risk has been defined as the probability of occurrence of a future event that can cause possible damage [37; 38]. Therefore, the risk of wildland fires refers to the negative impacts that these can have on communities and ecological environments [20]. The probability of wildland fire occurrence depends on the interaction between different geographic, topographic, climatic, land cover, and human action variables [11; 39; 40; 41]. The interaction between these factors determines the magnitude of the projected damages [11; 42]. The social theory of risk expands the analysis of this concept and its application in disaster risk management. This integrates the decision as a relevant component of the risk. The probability of damage is the consequence of an unwanted decision that wants to be avoided. For decisions to manage the risk, it is necessary to know what and how this damage is produced [43]. In the context of wildland fire risk, this means integrating knowledge about what makes wildland fires so that the decisions adopted for their management are those that prevent their occurrence or minimize their damage. In this sense, risk analysis implies anticipating possible negative results of a decision [44; 45]. The study of fire risk can be divided between research on propagation and the ignition of forest fires. This work addresses the risk of wildland fire ignition due to its relevance in developing prevention and preparedness strategies. A fire occurs when an ignition source (human or natural) meets the available combustible material [3]. Ignition risk is the probability that a fire will start at a given point in the territory [46]. Depending on the conditions and characteristics of the space where the ignition point is located, the flames can increase in intensity and propagate, developing into a forest fire [5; 47]. Ignition depends on a wide range of variables associated with the point where it occurs. These can be classified into (a) natural conditions, such as plant species and plantations height, humidity, temperature, topography, and local climate, [3; 4; 11; 47; 48] and (b) anthropogenic conditions, such as land use and cover, distance from roads, distance from urban or inhabited areas and urban infrastructure [6; 20; 23; 26; 47; 49]. The ignition risk increases when the associated variables interact at a certain point. Wildland urban interfaces (WUI) are areas in which these factors interact and are enhanced. Research indicates that the risk of wildland fires is greater when human settlements mix with vegetation [40; 50]. This acquires relevance in the context of megafires. The most significant damage caused by wildland fires is in the ecological environment in which they occur. The damage on urban surfaces is usually negligible if we compare it with vegetated or forested surfaces. In megafires, however, the risk of damage in inhabited urban areas increases [51; 52; 53]. Their high intensity characterizes megafires compared to the general pattern of wildland fires. Other characteristics are their broad ecological and social impact, the obstacles they impose on their management, and the danger of reactivation [19; 54]. All these factors imply that these events tend to cross WUIs, affecting people and urban infrastructure more significantly than forest fires. Along with this, a megafire can change the land cover, reducing the ecosystem services that the land provides to the surrounding populated areas [51; 55]. In this study, we analyze the risk of wildland fire ignition by modeling and mapping these events. Our case study is the Maule region in Chile, which was affected by the megafire of 2017. Considering the high vulnerability that this area presents to the impacts of climate change and the uncertainty about its future effects, we developed a model of ignition risk from historical fire data in the region. First, we identify the variables that best explain ignition. Based on these variable values, the model assigned a probability of fire occurrence to points on the map.