# Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain
## 1 Introduction  
During the last few decades, the Arabian (Persian) Gulf countries (United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Bahrain) have experienced huge economic growth reflected by the development of their infrastructure and construction industry, as well as a considerable increase of population. Several significant national projects worth billions of dollars have been built, or are under construction, in those countries (e.g., Khalifa Tower, Dubai Metro, Dubai Creek Tower, Expo 2020 Dubai in the UAE; FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 stadiums, Shara Crossing, Lusail City, Water Security Mega Reservoir Project, and Hamad Airport expansion project in Qatar; Bahrain World Trade Centre, Abraj Alulu, Bahrain Financial Harbour, and Durrat Al Bahrain in Bahrain). Geographically, the three countries (Figure 1) share the political sea borders of the Arabian Gulf with Iran. Tectonically, they are located within the eastern part of the stable continental region of the\"Arabian Plate\", which was formed 25-30 million years ago due to the opening of the axes of the Great African Rift System [1] along the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Significant potential seismotectonic sources are surrounding those regions [2]: (a) the Zagros-Biltis Fold Thrust Belt (ZBFTB) from the northeastern side [3], (b) the Makran Subduction zone defining the Arabian-Eurasian plate boundary, towards the east [4], and (c) the Owen-Murray Transform plate boundary delimiting the Arabian and Indian Plates, towards the southeastern border [5] (Figure 1a). Significant earthquake activity was recorded along the previously mentioned plate boundaries (Figure 1b). Despite the large distance between those plate boundaries and the studied countries, they are the main potential contributors to the seismic hazard in these countries. The current building regulations [7; 8; 9] of the studied countries (UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain) are not fully compatible with the seismic design concepts of the modern building codes around the world. The best and most effective way to mitigate such natural phenomena and reduce disasters caused by earthquakes is to compute reliable seismic hazard values that greatly serve to improve what is  
Figure 1: Regional tectonic setting (**a**), and shallow and intermediate-depth Poissonian earthquakes (since 658 to 2019) for the surroundings of UAE, Qatar and Bahrain (**b**) [2; 6]. Earthquake sizes have been drawn relative to the moment magnitude. considered in building regulations. The computation of these probabilistic seismic hazard values establishes the crucial first step towards reaching a reliable and representative seismic provision in the building codes for any region or country. Taking into consideration the substantial development and mega construction projects in those countries, as well as the current incomplete and non-uniform regulations for the seismic design, a new comprehensive seismic hazard assessment based on a systematic approach is required. In the current work, a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the three Gulf countries is developed in terms of the mean horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA), hazard curves, and spectral acceleration (SA) ordinates. A typical zoning approach combined with a spatially smoothed seismicity model has been applied based on an up-to-date compiled and unified Poissonian earthquake catalog and a seismic source model published recently by [PERSON] et al. [2; 6]. A logic-tree design that considers the epistemic uncertainties related to four main inputs has been constructed: the seismic source model, the Gutenberg-Richter \(b\)-value, the maximum expected magnitude, and the ground-motion attenuation model. Here, we present the results of this detailed seismic hazard assessment for the whole studied region, in general, and for selected mega cities in particular, for B/C National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) boundary site conditions, and for return periods of 475 and 975 years.