# Forecasting the Number of Road Accidents in Polish Provinces Using Trend Models
## 5 Conclusions
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c} \hline \hline
**Data/Model** & **Annual Data** & **Monthly Data** \\ \hline Exponential & y = 2545.8e\({}^{-0.005\text{x}}\) & y = 1906e\({}^{-1\text{E}-05\text{x}}\) \\ \cline{2-3}  & R\({}^{2}\) = 0.9269 & R\({}^{2}\) = 0.0241 \\ \hline Linear & y = \(-70.049\text{x}\) + 2347.9 & y = \(-0.0142\text{x}\) + 1713.4 \\ \cline{2-3}  & R\({}^{2}\) = 0.9651 & R\({}^{2}\) = 0.0243 \\ \hline Logarithmic & y = \(-489.1\text{ln}(x)\) + 2634.3 & y = \(-610.5\text{ln}(x)\) + 7615.9 \\ \cline{2-3}  & R\({}^{2}\) = 0.8169 & R\({}^{2}\) = 0.0258 \\ \hline Polynomial of 2 nd degree & y = \(-0.2957\text{x}^{2}\) \(-63.544\text{x}\) + 2323 & y = 2E-05x\({}^{2}\) \(-1.5293\text{x}\) + 3338 \\ \cline{2-3}  & R\({}^{2}\) = 0.9656 & R\({}^{2}\) = 0.1037 \\ \hline Polynomial of 3 rd degree & y = \(-0.0844\text{x}^{3}\) + 2.4883x\({}^{2}\) \(-88.617\text{x}\) + 2374.2 & y = \(-4\text{E}\text{-}\text{10x}^{3}\) + 7E-05x\({}^{2}\) \(-3.8804\text{x}\) + 66046 \\ \cline{2-3}  & R\({}^{2}\) = 0.9667 & R\({}^{2}\) = 0.1037 \\ \hline Polynomial of 4 th degree & y = \(-0.0538\text{x}^{4}\) + 2.2813x\({}^{3}\) \(-31.514\text{x}^{2}\) + 86.947x + 2141 & y = \(-1\text{E}\text{-}\text{11x}^{4}\) + 2E-06x\({}^{3}\) \(-1.4185\text{x}^{2}\) + 4133.1x \(-4\text{E}\text{+}\text{07}\) \\ \hline Polynomial of 5 th degree & y = \(-0.0025\text{x}^{5}\) + 0.083x\({}^{4}\) - 0.4272x\({}^{3}\) \(-8.3145\text{x}^{2}\) + & y = \(4\text{E}\text{-}\text{15x}^{5}\) \(-8\text{E}\text{-}\text{10x}^{4}\) + 7E-05x\({}^{3}\) \(-2.8272\text{x}^{2}\) + 60046x \\ \cline{2-3}  & R\({}^{2}\) = 0.978 & R\({}^{2}\) = 0.3051 \\ \hline Polynomial of 6 th degree & y = \(0.0006\text{x}^{6}\) \(-0.0449\text{x}^{5}\) + 1.1552x\({}^{4}\) \(-13.385\text{x}^{3}\) + & y = \(-2\text{E}\text{-}\text{18x}^{6}\) \(-1\text{E}\text{-}\text{12x}^{5}\) + 1E-07x\({}^{4}\) \(-0.0079\text{x}^{3}\) + 245.49x\({}^{2}\) \(-4\text{E}\text{+}\text{06x}\) + 3E+10 \\ \cline{2-3}  & R\({}^{2}\) = 0.981 & R\({}^{2}\) = 0.3988 \\ \cline{2-3}  & R\({}^{2}\) = 0.9872 & R\({}^{2}\) = 0.328 \\ \hline Polynomial of 5 th degree & y = \(-0.0031\text{x}^{5}\) + 0.0633x\({}^{4}\) + 1.9849x\({}^{3}\) \(-67.299\text{x}^{2}\) + & y = \(2\text{E}\text{-}\text{14x}^{5}\) \(-4\text{E}\text{-}\text{09x}^{4}\) + 0.0003\text{x}^{3}\) \(-13.992\text{x}^{2}\) + 294603x \\ \cline{2-3}  & 361.21x + 6092.1 & \(-2\text{E}\text{+}\text{099}\) \(-2\text{E}\text{+}\text{099}\) \(-2\text{E}\text{+}\text{099}\) \(-2\text{E}\text{+}\text{099}\) \(-2\text{E}\text{+}\text{099}\) \(-2\text{E}\text{+}\text{099}\) \\ \hline Polynomial of 6 th degree & y = \(0.0019\text{x}^{6}\) \(-0.1298\text{x}^{5}\) \(+3.2675\text{x}^{4}\) \(-36.739\text{x}^{3}\) + & y = \(2\text{E}\text{-}\text{17x}^{6}\) \(-5\text{E}\text{-}\text{12x}^{5}\) \(+5\text{E}\text{-}\text{07x}^{4}\) \(-0.0288\text{x}^{3}\) + 897.12x\({}^{2}\) \(-159.89\text{x}^{2}\) \(-215.37\text{x}\) + 6535.2 & y = \(-1\text{E}\text{+}\text{07x}\) \(+1\text{E}\text{+}\text{11}\) \\ \hline Potential metric & y = \(9554.3\text{x}^{-0.337}\) & y = \(0.4145\text{x}^{0.87}\) \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 13: Trend models for the Holy Cross province.