###### Abstract  
The southeastern coastal region of China has long been affected by typhoon disasters, which pose significant threats to the safety of offshore structures. Therefore, predicting extreme wind speeds corresponding to various return periods on the basis of limited typhoon samples is particularly important for wind-resistant design. This study systematically predicts extreme typhoon wind speeds for various return periods and quantitatively assesses the sensitivity of key parameters by employing a Monte Carlo stochastic simulation framework integrated with a typhoon straight-line trajectory model and the Yan Meng wind field model. Focusing on Guangzhou (23.13\({}^{\circ}\) N, 113.28 \({}^{\circ}\)E), a representative coastal city in southeastern China, this research establishes a modular analytical framework that provides generalizable solutions for typhoon disaster assessment in coastal regions. The probabilistic wind load data generated by this framework significantly increases the cost-effectiveness and safety of wind-resistant structural design. t  
type=multiuser, description=A, description=  
The calculation results of extreme wind speeds are significantly influenced by the number of available typhoon samples. Owing to the scarcity of observation stations and frequent failures of wind measurement equipment caused by the destructive nature of typhoons, the number of valid typhoon samples remains relatively limited. To address this issue, researchers have developed parametric typhoon simulation statistical models based on the Monte Carlo method, which have been widely applied in the design of wind-resistant engineering structures. The stochastic typhoon simulation approach primarily integrates typhoon track models with typhoon wind field models. By combining specific typhoon track models with corresponding wind field models and employing random sampling techniques, this method can generate sufficient typhoon samples to obtain adequate wind speed data. Subsequently, extreme value statistical analysis is performed to determine typhoon-induced extreme wind speeds for different return periods. Typhoon track models include mainly single-point straight-line track models and basin-wide full-track models. The single-point straight-line track model focuses on a specific target location and was initially proposed by [PERSON] [3; 4] to estimate extreme typhoon wind speeds in the Gulf of Mexico. Researchers have subsequently developed various parameterized typhoon wind field models and filling models, employing either the segmented coastline approach [4; 5] or the simulated circle method [6; 7; 8] to estimate extreme wind speeds in different regions. Both the United States [9] and Australia [10] have adopted single-point straight-line track models for developing design wind speed maps. The basin-wide full-track model, introduced by [PERSON] et al. [11], can simulate the entire lifecycle of typhoons from genesis to dissipation. Current research focuses on improving aspects of the Vickery model, such as parameter selection [12; 13], probability distributions [14; 15], and grid partitioning [14; 15]. Some scholars have also proposed new full-track models based on the Vickery framework, including the Markov chain method [16; 17], statistical-deterministic approach [16], and statistical-dynamic method [18]. Additionally, [PERSON] et al. [19] developed a simulation method based on random forest and track clustering analysis, which significantly improved the accuracy of typhoon track prediction. This method has successfully simulated design wind speeds for nine southeastern coastal cities in China and demonstrates higher computational efficiency than does the Vickery model.