###### Abstract  
Ship pilots and maritime safety administration have an urgent need for more accurate and earlier warnings for strong wind gusts. This study firstly investigated the \"Oriental Star\" cruise ship capsizing event in 2015, one of the deadliest shipweck events in recent years, and explored all related hydro-meteorological components in a global mesoscale model. It was found that rather than the missing signal in raw surface-wind prediction, the cumulus precipitation variable (CP) increased dramatically during the accident occurrence, which significantly corresponds to a sub-grid strong wind gust. The effective lead time could be extended from 24 h (deterministic model) to 48 h (ensemble model). This finding was then verified in another two recent deadly cruise boat accidents. The introduction of the new variable aims to improve the current maritime safeguard system in predicting sub-grid strong wind gusts for small-sized cruise boats offshore and in inland rivers. Finally, an automatic response system was developed to provide economical convection prediction via INMARSAT email communication, aiming to explore operational severe convective gust early warning and appropriate numerical mesoscale model applications. strong wind gust; early warning; ensemble forecasts; severe convection; auto-response system +
Footnote †: journal: Marine Science and Engineering  
0000-0001-5000-0000-0000-0000-0000-0000-00000-0000-0000-0000-  
traggies, sudden strong convective events were all present. Statistical analysis shows that this kind of extreme weather occurs frequently in the tropical maritime continent and at some monsoonal mid-latitudes, where the \"Oriental Star\" and \"Double Dragon\" shipwced. To improve strongly convective-related extreme weather forecasting skills and warning capability, scholars have made a lot of efforts but mostly focused on rainfall extremes and secondary disasters, e.g., flooding, land sliding, inundation, etc. [PERSON] et al. [4] and [PERSON] et al. [5] were among the first to point out that high winds and gusts in severe weather at mid-latitudes may be due to deep convection. [PERSON] [6] reviewed the meteorological service during the \"Oriental Star\" ship capsizing event, pointing out that \"the current technology can't make accurate warnings on the local scale winds,..., it is necessary to strengthen skills\". As noted by [PERSON] [7], \"gusts are one of the most poorly observed atmospheric variables\"; so far, the effective operational recording and warning of strong nautical wind gusts is still a challenging problem. Multiple methods have been applied to estimate wind gusts from meteorological components. [PERSON] [8] and the International Maritime Organization [9] tended to directly connect wind gusts with a 10 min average wind speed (or sustained wind; WMO 1987). This is rather simple and can only work as a state-of-the-art method when no big eddy is present, i.e., it might somehow miss some small-scale but devastating convective gusts, as discussed in this paper. [PERSON] et al. [5] applied eddy equations and a non-numerical cloud physics model in the Western Europe region and concluded that the gust factor (gust/mean) under deep-convection conditions is much greater and more variable than that under no-eddy conditions. At the end of this paper, it is suggested that only numerical weather prediction (NWP) combined with eddy equations should be the next research stage. [PERSON] et al. [10; 11], [PERSON] et al. [12], and [PERSON] et al. [13] applied various regional atmosphere numerical models forced by large-scale global weather products to simulate wind gusts under complex weather conditions. However, few of the wind gust estimation research studies are in the navigation field or are accident based. As a result, no significant predictor is recommended for strong nautical wind gusts with enough lead time [14]. This work studied the convective events associated with the above cruise shipwrecks using meteorological component analysis.