## 3 Results and Discussion
### Prediction Model
#### 3.2.2 Assessment of Exploitable Groundwater Resources in the Zhem Basin--Second Scenario Prediction
Calculations of possible water pumping, taking into account the maximum permissible drawdowns, are given in Section 3.2.3. The predictive groundwater flow balance changes according to the second scenario are presented in Tables 7 and 8. After 25 years of groundwater utilization operations, exploitable groundwater resources will withstand the approved limits, with a total flow rate of 6087 thousand m\({}^{3}\)/day, which is almost 90% of the precipitation input. Leakage losses from rivers will double to approximately 104,000 m\({}^{3}\)/day, which will not deplete or gain storage reserves. Nonetheless, lowering the groundwater head might lead to drawdowns. The groundwater head drop will reduce evapotranspiration [43] from approximately 70% (2022) to 1100 thousand m\({}^{3}\)/day (18%). In the 50-year prediction, the drawdown development stabilizes, as groundwater discharge slightly decreases (by approximately 4%). With balance components generally alike across the entire basin, river leakage will increase approximately twofold during the 25-year predictive period, with a subsequent reduction during the stabilization period (50-year prediction). Groundwater discharge into rivers will be reduced by almost 50 thousand m\({}^{3}\)/day and the groundwater flow rate will be approximately 4600 thousand m\({}^{3}\)/day, or approximately 75% of the Zhem Artesian Basin. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{3}{*}{**Deposit**} & \multirow{3}{*}{\begin{tabular}{c} **Approved Exploitable** \\ **Groundwater** \\ **Resources, m\({}^{3}\)/Day** \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{3}{*}{\begin{tabular}{c} **Permissible Drawdown** \\ **Accepted When Assessing** \\ **Approved Exploitable** \\ **Groundwater Resources, m\({}^{3}\)/Day** \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{3}{*}{\begin{tabular}{c} **Maximum Model** \\ **Predicted** \\ **Approved Englobule** \\ **Groundwater Resources, m\({}^{3}\)/day** \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{3}{*}{\begin{tabular}{c} **Additional** \\ **Drawdown with** \\ **Coweration, m\({}^{3}\)** \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{3}{*}{\
\begin{tabular}{c} **Maximum Predicted** \\ **Drawdown with** \\ **Drawdown, m\({}^{3}\)** \\ \end{tabular} } & \multirow{3}{*}{
\begin{tabular}{c} **Difference Between** \\ **Permissible and** \\ **Maximum Predicted** \\ **Drawdown, m\({}^{3}\)** \\ \end{tabular} } \\  & & & 25 Years & 50 Years & 25 Years & 50 Years \\ \hline Emba & 27,000 & 150 & 16.3 & 24.1 & 1.2 & 17.5 & 25.3 & 133 & 125 \\ Kokzhide & 173,400 & 67 & 39.8 & 57.8 & 2.1 & 41.9 & 59.9 & 25.1 & 7.1 \\ Kenkiyak & 21,600 & 59.9 & 70.4 & 82.2 & 3.3 & 73.7 & 85.5 & -13.8 & -25.6 \\ Aliekronola & 12,000 & 96 & 0.2 & 1 & 7.1 & 7.3 & 8.1 & 88.7 & 87.9 \\ Alga & 24,300 & 16.6 & 3.7 & 6.5 & 3.5 & 7.2 & 9.2 & 9.4 & 7.4 \\ Kundakur & 46,656 & 100 & 22.3 & 25.6 & 0.3 & 22.6 & 15.8 & 77.4 & 84.2 \\ Atzhaky & 40,450 & 88.8 & 29.1 & 43.7 & 4.3 & 33.4 & 44.4 & 55.4 & 44.4 \\ Kandygach & 23,760 & 36.8 & 38.9 & 59.7 & 2.5 & 41.4 & 62.2 & -4.6 & -25.4 \\ Shubarakudy & 2820 & 19 & 2.6 & 3.4 & 3.1 & 5.7 & 4.1 & 13.3 & 14.9 \\ Moisevskoye & 45,000 & 103 & 32.6 & 38.2 & 38.7 & 71.3 & 76.9 & 31.2 & 25.6 \\ Sarybuk & 25,000 & 60 & 21.1 & 25.7 & 0.4 & 21.5 & 26.1 & 38.5 & 33.9 \\ Alga PTV & 24,300 & 39.3 & 20.8 & 35.5 & 2.7 & 23.5 & 38.2 & 15.8 & -1.1 \\ Dzhurun & 40,200 & 57.2 & 86.1 & 167 & 83.3 & 169 & 250 & \(-112\) & \(-193\) \\ PTV & & & & & & & & \\ Jarkamus & 37,000 & 70 & 100 & 121 & 27.1 & 128 & 105 & \(-57.5\) & \(-34.5\) \\ Kandygach & 29,300 & 48.5 & 25.7 & 33 & 0.3 & 26.0 & 33.3 & 22.5 & 15.2 \\ West & & & & & & & & & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 6: Maximum predicted drawdowns in groundwater heads in comparison with permissible drawdown. 2.3 The Third Prediction Scenario Aims to Determine the Maximum Possible Water Withdrawal at Which the Predicted Groundwater Head Drawdown Will Not Exceed the Permissible Values  
The calculations included the following groundwater reservoirs: Kenkiyak, Kandagach, Dzhurun PTV and Zharkamys.