# Earthquake Prediction for the Duzce Province in the Marmara Region Using Artificial Intelligence
## 5 Results and Discussion  
This section contains the results of the estimation of earthquake probability and magnitude between 1990 and 2022 for the Duzce Province. The first study was conducted for the earthquakes occurring in November and December 2022. Seven hundred fifty-six earthquakes with magnitudes between 1.0 and 6.1 occurred in this indicated period. Of the earthquakes that occurred, 16 were with magnitudes of 3.0 and above and are shown in Figure 2.  
The earthquake's magnitude, depth, location, time, the distance of the Moon from the Earth, b value, and d value were used in the training and testing phase of the RNN model. Figure 2: Earthquake distribution in Düzce in November and December. The estimation phase was studied using earthquakes with magnitude three and above that occurred in the Duzce Province in November and December. The estimated magnitudes and probability values were compared with the actual data. The estimated earthquakes' magnitudes are shown in Figure 3.  
An examination of the results shows a highest probability of 75.3% and a lowest probability of 58.9% for an earthquake between the actual data and the estimated data. These probabilities likely refer to the likelihood or confidence level associated with the similarity between the actual earthquake data and the estimated data. Compared to the estimated earthquakes' magnitudes, the actual earthquakes' magnitudes were estimated with a maximum error rate of 0.5% and a minimum error rate of 0.4%. The actual sizes and the probable and prospective sizes are shown in Table 4 and Figure 4.  
The second study was conducted for August 1999, when 19 earthquakes occurred in Duzce and caused great destruction. In order to evaluate the period before and after the earthquakes, the months of July, August, and September were studied. An earthquake magnitude estimation study was conducted in August. A total of 295 earthquakes with magnitudes of 3.0 and above occurred within the specified 3-month period. Of the earthquakes experienced, 141 earthquakes occurred in August. The diurnal distribution of the earthquakes in August is shown in Figure 5.  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c} \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Date**} & **Magnitude** & **Depth** & **Probability** & **Prediction** \\  & **(M \(\geq\) 3)** & **(km)** & **(\%)** & **(M)** \\ \hline
23 November 2022 & 6.1 & 8.3 & 73.0 & 5.6 \\
23 November 2022 & 4.4 & 5 & 75.3 & 4.0 \\
23 November 2022 & 3. Figure 4: Predicted magnitude vs. real magnitude. Figure 5: Cont. The estimation phase study was carried out using the RNN method for earthquakes with magnitude three and above in August 1999 in Duzce. The estimated magnitude and probability values were compared with the actual data. The estimated earthquakes' magnitudes are shown in Figure 6 and estimated earthquakes' magnitudes vs. real magnitudes are shown in Figure 7.  
An examination of the obtained results shows that between the real data and the estimated data the highest probability of an earthquake is 74.3% and the lowest is 68.3%. In the month of August, a minimum of 6 and a maximum of 14 earthquakes occurred per day. The average earthquakes' magnitudes per day is presented in (Table 5). Figure 5: Earthquake distribution in Düzce in August 1999. Figure 6: Estimated magnitude data. Compared to the estimated earthquakes' magnitudes that occurred on a given day, the actual earthquakes' magnitudes were estimated with a maximum error rate of 0.6% and a minimum error rate of 0.1%. The actual magnitude data, probability, and predicted magnitudes are shown in Tables 5-19.