# Seismic Hazard Evaluation and Strain Dynamics in the
## 5 Conclusions  
In this study, the \(a\) and \(b\) parameters were first determined using the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship to assess the seismic hazard of the SFZ and its surrounding area. Also, the earthquake recurrence periods, spatial density of the earthquakes and released energy amount, and strain rates for each segment of the SFZ are estimated for the purpose of reflecting the current seismic hazard potential of the region. In a broad sense, calculated \(a\) and \(b\) parameters using the nonlinear regression approach seem compatible with the tectonic structures and seismic activity of the region. Earthquake recurrence periods, which provide critical insights into the stress release cycle along the fault, were calculated starting from M = 5 to M = 6.2 with increments of 0.1 magnitude. In addition to the earthquake recurrence periods, the spatial distribution of seismic events, the temporal and spatial evolution of the energy corridor, strain rates are calculated to evaluate seismic risk more accurately. The calculated strain rates reaching their maximum values at the junction of the Sindrgi segment and the GFZ, the western end of the Simav Fault Zone (SFZ), as well as along the extension of the ASPS at the eastern end of the SFZ, are significant findings in this study. This indicates that the SFZ, intersecting with other fault zones to the west and east, is interacting with neighboring tectonic structures and actively accumulating strain. The low strain values observed in the segments located in the central part of the SFZ are believed to result from these segments having released a substantial amount of energy during past major earthquakes. These findings, along with the region's historical seismic activity, suggest that the area is likely to be vulnerable to seismic hazards, warranting a cautious outlook toward future seismic events. Besides, the past events, the existing building stock, and particularly the fact that Simav and its surroundings are situated on alluvial soil indicate that the region is vulnerable even to moderate earthquakes. While large-scale studies provide a general perspective on the region, the influence of numerous small events generated by the graben systems across Western Anatolia on hazard parameters, such as \(b\)-values, can lead to the potential misinterpretation of faults that have produced major earthquakes in the past. This, in turn, may result in the underestimation of seismic hazards and hinder accurate seismic risk assessments. Consequently, this study, which specifically focuses on the SFZ--a region that has experienced destructive earthquakes in the past and impacts millions of people--produces findings that are regarded as both unique and significant, distinguishing it from broader-scale research conducted across Western Anatolia. This study is expected to contribute to a more accurate understanding of seismic hazards at both local and regional levels, serving as a crucial reference for decision-makers in the development of earthquake risk management and mitigation strategies. The findings are expected to play a pivotal role in the formulation of disaster management and preparedness plans aimed at reducing the potential loss of life and property. The earthquake-generating potential of the segments that make up the SFZ, according to the model of a single segment rupture, significantly exceeds the minimum earthquake magnitude threshold (Mw > 6) required to generate surface rupture [43]. The multiple segment ruptures that occurred during the Kahramanmaras earthquakes in 2023 (Mw: 7.8 and Mw: 7.6) showed a significant increase in both earthquake magnitude and, consequently, the level of destructiveness [144, 145]. In high-risk areas such as the SFZ, it is believed that such studies can significantly enhance resilience to seismic events.