# Machine Learning Regression Model for Predicting Honey Harvestis
## 2 Materials and Methods
### Temperature, Rainfall and Solar Exposure Datasets  
These standard meteorological datasets were retrieved from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)'s Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM), a database that holds weather observations dating back to the mid-1800s for some sites [14]. Daily weather observations stored within ADAM are readily accessible online via BOM's Climate Data Online portal [15]. Weather stations managed by BOM are installed and operated to consistent standards [16], providing a high degree of confidence when comparing data between years and sites. While the individual weather station measurements have a high degree of confidence, weather stations in the study area are widely spaced, with up to 38.9 km between apiary sites and the nearest  
Figure 3: Examples of the minimum, median and maximum mature canopy cover across the apiary sites (images are all 1 km \(\times\) 1 km extent). Figure 2: Apiary site locations indicated by yellow markers. Site labels correspond to those listed in Table 1. Coordinates are in World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS84). weather station (Table 3). With the majority of the surveyed extent of the marri trees covering -84,000 km\({}^{2}\)[3], only \(\sim\)11,000 km\({}^{2}\) (or 13% of this area) has a temperature station within 10 km. This is shown spatially in Figure 4. The relatively sparse weather station network means that the extrapolation of temperature data to apiary sites may introduce some errors. Additionally, while a 10 km buffer from the rainfall recording stations covers 50% of the surveyed extent of marri trees, the spatial extent of rainfall events, particularly summer thunderstorms, can be much less. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c|c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Apiary Site**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**Nearest Temperature**} & \multirow{2}{*}{**Distance (km)**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**Nearest Rainfall**} & \multirow{2}{*}{**Distance (km)**} \\  & & & & **Station** \\ \hline
101 & PEARCE RAAF & 12.3 & MARBLING & 3.7 \\
102 & BICKLEY & 10.5 & MAIDA VALE & 5.2 \\
103 & BICKLEY & 9.7 & ROLEYSTONE & 3.6 \\
201 & BICKLEY & 6.2 & BICKLEY & 6.2 \\
202 & BICKLEY & 23.9 & CHIDLOW & 5.5 \\
203 & BICKLEY & 24.5 & WOOROLOGY & 4.7 \\
204 & BICKLEY & 19.3 & LAKE & 1.8 \\
205 & BICKLEY & 27.0 & WOOROLOGY & 6.9 \\
206 & BADGINGARRA & 38.9 & CHELSEA & 4.9 \\  & RESEARCH STN & 33.3 & TAMBREY & 2.4 \\
207 & BADGINGARRA & 33.3 & TAMBREY & 2.4 \\  & RESEARCH STN & & & \\  & LANCELIN & 34.6 & DANDARAGAN & 3.2 \\
208 & (DEFENCE) & 34.6 & WEST & 3.2 \\  & LANCELIN & 37.9 & DANDARAGAN & 1.2 \\
209 & (DEFENCE) & 37.9 & WEST & 1.2 \\
210 & BICKLEY & 1.2 & BICKLEY & 1.2 \\
211 & BICKLEY & 4.8 & BICKLEY & 4.8 \\
212 & BICKLEY & 20.1 & CHIDLOW & 0.1 \\
213 & BRIDGETOWN & 29.9 & BOYUP BROOK & 10.0 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 3: Distances between apiary sites and weather stations Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) weather station locations retrieved from [17]. Figure 4: Coverage of Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) rainfall and temperature weather stations over the geographic extent of marri trees. Coordinates are in WGS84. An example of the rainfall from such a storm event is shown in Figure 5. The main storm feature is approximately 18 km across its long axis but the more intense central area, where rainfall may be as high as 200 mm/h in this case, is just over 2 km across. Reducing the buffer around the BOM rainfall stations to 2 km means that only 3.1% of the marri spatial extent is sufficiently close to a rainfall station to reliably detect these isolated, yet intense, summer rain events. With summer rainfall being one of the key indicators of marri honey harvest weight [9], this lack of coverage may limit the ability of the BOM rainfall data to reliably classify or predict honey harvest weight. The distances between the apiary sites where the honey harvest data is from and the nearest weather stations are provided in Table 3, with temperature stations more than 10 km away and rainfall stations greater than 2 km away highlighted.