## 1 Introduction
[18] conducted a suitability analysis for new urban settlement areas in the hilltop regions of Nanjing, China, using AHP-GIS. Their study included 14 sub-criteria, categorized under four main criteria: topographic, environmental, socioeconomic, and historical sites. Meanwhile, [PERSON] and [PERSON] [14] focused on evaluating the potential suitability of urban development in Pendik district, Istanbul. Their assessment encompassed criteria such as geophysical features, accessibility, existing settlements and infrastructure, vegetation cover, and green areas. Notably, their findings underscored the constraint of northern areas due to their predominance of agricultural and forested lands, while indicating that southern coastal areas were more suitable for residential development. The aforementioned studies have provided valuable insights into the methodologies used to assess urban land use suitability and identify optimal locations for new development areas. However, they primarily focus on current conditions and lack a forward-looking approach that integrates future urban growth projections with suitability analyses. Consequently, the existing literature presents limitations in its ability to combine predictive modeling of future urban land use patterns with assessments of their suitability for settlement purposes. Remote sensing products play a crucial role in investigating LULC changes, with the spectral signatures of satellite images classified to extract land cover information. LULC maps are derived through image classification, combining software assistance and visual interpretation. Changes in LULC are determined by calculating differences in pixel reflectance values from images captured on different dates [19]. Monitoring and predicting changes in LULC is vital in making informed urban land use decisions. Simulation models, widely used over the last two decades, help simulate future urban growth based on historical LULC changes. These predictions aid in preventing environmental degradation risks when formulating land use plans [20; 21; 22; 23]. In Turkey, a significant shift from rural to urban areas, spurred by agricultural modernization since the early 1950s, has led to accelerated urbanization and notable development in cities. The influx of populations into cities, driven by economic challenges, has resulted in unplanned settlements, while rural lands on the outskirts of cities have undergone substantial changes to meet the demand for urban land [24]. The Mersin Metropolitan Area in Turkey has experienced such growth due to population increases and associated investments, but uncontrolled urbanization poses threats to rural life and environmental health. The area faces challenges, particularly in the form of the loss of agricultural lands, especially those used for citrus cultivation, and uncontrolled construction in pasturelands. This paper addresses the need for a sustainable urban planning framework to assess potential urban growth areas in the Mersin Metropolitan Area. This study primarily aims to utilize the AHP and GIS, in conjunction with selected environmental, topographic, and locational factors, to identify the most suitable areas for new urban development around the city of Mersin. This entails generating a urban land use suitability analysis map for six districts within the Mersin Metropolitan Area. To enhance the usability of the urban land use suitability analysis, an urban growth simulation is developed using open data and software. This simulation forecasts urban growth in Mersin in the coming years, and is evaluated alongside the urban land use suitability map. This will assist decision-makers and planners in understanding the suitability of potential urban growth areas in Mersin for development, guiding them in selecting suitable areas for urban development and avoiding unsuitable ones.