# A Study of Cislunar-Based Small Satellite Constellations with Sustainable Autonomy
## 5 Visual Simulations and Analysis (Constellation Scenarios)
### Moon-Based Constellation Simulation
#### 5.2.2 Monte Carlo Conjunction Tracking Analysis--Moon's Side of Cisluunar Space  
The Monte Carlo analysis was not actually part of the research until the Korean spacecraft had an important release of the issue near the Moon's orbital region. Continuous alerts were received by the satellite, warning of a possible collision [38]. Hence, this has provided significant evidence that there can be more such events in the near future, and with constellations building up, there is an extensive need for a Monte Carlo analysis with autonomous capabilities incorporated to avoid and overcome collisions efficiently.  
The intensity of the debris or other missions' collision with the proposed constellation may not be as high as for the Earth's side of the Cisluunar space, but the thing to understand here is that the planned and deployed missions towards the Moon are growing exponentially. This can be a reality that a post-Artemis crewed mission will reach the Moon's surface. The debris and missions' congestion may proportionally increase, and a systematic approach is needed to avoid conflicts and other issues in orbit and on Moon/Earth ground controls. Hence, a minimally congested scenario is considered for this simulation. The visual demonstration of lunar debris is not possible at the moment due to the lack of TLE release from the concerned organizations, but this can be a future work in progress. Tables 5 and 6 show the resulting solutions, and Figure 12 depicts the analysis pictorially for a detailed observation of the lunar mission's Monte Carlo collision probability over time.  
Figure 10: Visual demonstration of the constellation (the Moon’s side of the Cisluunar space). (**a**) Complete orientation of constellation along NRHO; (**b**) varied orientation of constellation under perturbations; (**c**) The constellation variation with NRHO (Body frame); (**d**) Extended view with Earth coordinates (inertial); (**e**) Full-scale gateway propagation; (**f**) NRHO variation (inertial); (**g**) Dark-side view of the constellation in operations.  
Figure 11: The autonomous parametric analysis (the Moon’s side of the Cislunar space) [16]. **(a)** Along Arc, In-track, and range variations (sats-Km); **(b)** Radial projection separations among satellites (Km); **(c)** Along, Radial, and Cross track separations (Sats-Km); **(d)** Satellite Inclination variation with Az/El. (Deg.); **(e)** Ground parameter variations (Az./El.)-Satellites (Deg.); **(f)** Ground parameter variations (Az./El.)-GS (Deg.).  
Figure 12: Variations in Probability of Collision Analysis (Moon’s case). (**a**) Probability of Collision (Pc) (2k states); (**b**) Missed distances—2k states—Meters; (**c**) Probability of Collision (Pc)—(4k states); (**d**) Missed distances—4k states—Meters.  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{l l} \hline \hline
**Parameter** & **Value** \\ \hline Probability of Collision (Pc) & 0.032097 \\ Probability of Collision (Pc)— & 0.036820 \\ with Monte Carlo & 56 ms \\ The difference in PC & +22.1883\% \\ No. of potential hits & 54 \\ Closest Avg. Range & 0.047045 Km \\ Closest Avg. Range— & 1.295058 Km \\ with Monte Carlo & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 5: Observations from Case—1 (Moon).