## 1 Introduction
More specifically, this study seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of the following forecasting models: Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Exogenous SARIMA (SARIMAX) [13], Facebook Prophet (FB Prophet) [14], Holt-Winters [15], Trigonometric Seasonality Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trends, and Seasonal components (TBATS) [16]. However, this study does not evaluate the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) due to the presence of seasonality in the studied time series, which the model cannot handle. These models are selected based on a literature assessment. Facebook Prophet is a time series model that has been demonstrated to have good accuracy for predicting energy demand [17; 18]. Nonetheless, as seen in Section 2, it has not been as extensively explored as other models. Conversely, ARIMA-based models are broadly applied in the energy sector [19]. Holt-Winters and TBATS have achieved better accuracy than ARIMA models in specific energy scenarios [20; 21]. As seen in Section 2, this is the first study to evaluate and compare these models concurrently. For the optimal use of these models, however, specific characteristics of the energy consumption time series must be evaluated. These features, such as periodicity of season \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{p{113.8 pt} p{113.8 pt} p{113.8 pt}} \hline \hline
**SDG Target** & **Description** & **Actions Taken by Brazil** \\ \hline
**7.1: Universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy services** & Ensure everyone has access to clean and sustainable energy. & * National Program for Universal Access to Electric Energy (Luz para Tods): Expands electricity access to remote and low-income areas Social rate programs: Provide subsidies for low-income households \\ \hline
**7.2: Increase the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix** & Promote the use of clean energy sources. & * Biofuel program: Encourages the production and use of biofuels size sugarcane ethanol, reducing dependence on fossil fuels Investment in wind and solar energy: Government incentives and netomote the development of wind and solar farms \\ \hline
**7.3: Double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency** & Reduce energy consumption without compromising economic activity. & * National Energy Efficiency Plan (PNPE): Sets targets and strategies for various sectors to improve energy efficiency * Industrial energy efficiency programs: Offer incentives and technical assistance to industries for adopting energy-saving practices \\ \hline
**7.4: Enhance international cooperation for clean energy research and technology** & Collaborate with other countries on clean energy development. & * Participation in international initiatives: Brazil actively participates in forums like the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and Mission Innovation. * Bilateral cooperation: Engages in joint research and development projects with other countries focusing on clean energy technologies \\ \hline
**7.5: Expand infrastructure for sustainable energy services in developing countries** & Assist developing nations in accessing clean energy solutions. & South-South Cooperation: Brazil shares its expertise and technology in renewable energy with other developing countries Technology transfer initiatives: Providides technical assistance and training programs for capacity building in clean energy technologies \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 1: Brazil’s actions toward achieving SDG7 targets. ality and stationarity of the time series, are assessed with statistical tests and passed as parameters for the models.