## 1 Introduction
In southern African nations where Mozambique is located, a decrease in annual discharge will significantly affect the amount of surface water in large parts of the south of the continent by the end of the century [3,7,8]. Hydropower is dependent on a predictably steady precipitation pattern. The use of hydropower plants in the country of Mozambique is therefore fraught with potential risks associated with its geographical location, as it is identified as being a vulnerable country in terms of climate change. Located along the coast of the Indian Ocean, being a downstream country and being associated with low technology, poverty and a weak capacity to adapt to societal changes, hydropower use in Mozambique is expected to be negatively affected by climate change in the future [4,9,10]. A change in the water resources availability will result in significant changes in electricity supply [5,8,11]. Figure 1: Current electricity scenarios in Mozambique: production, domestic consumption and import. Source: own illustration from information extracted from [1,3,4]. The historical records of rainfall and temperature from stations in Mozambique show that in general the mean annual temperature has increased by 0.6 \({}^{\circ}\)C between 1960 and 2006, equivalent to an average rate of 0.13 \({}^{\circ}\)C per decade [3,11,12]. This increase in temperature has been observed in the rainy season December, January and February (DJF), March, April and May (MAM), and June, July and August (JJA) only, at a rate of 0.15-0.16 \({}^{\circ}\)C per decade. According to future projections, temperatures are expected to increase up to +1.4 \({}^{\circ}\)C by 2030 and +1.0 to +2.8 \({}^{\circ}\)C by 2060 (minimum ranging). A continued increase is expected of +2.2 \({}^{\circ}\)C by 2070 and +1.4 to +4.6 \({}^{\circ}\)C up to the 2090s (maximum ranging) as shown in Figure 4[3,8,11,13]. In addition, under a single emissions scenario, the projected changes from different models have shown that the temperature will be up by 1.8 \({}^{\circ}\)C. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall over Mozambique has decreased at an average rate of 2.5 mm per month (3.1% per decade) between 1960 and 2006. This annual decrease is largely due to a reduction in DJF rainfall, which has decreased by 6.3 mm per month, and 3.4% per decade. Rainfall projections show that the substantial change in total annual rainfall on the national level is projected to be between \(-\)8 and +14% from 1975 to 2100. Regional and seasonal changes are however more pronounced: A rainfall increase of 1-8% (2010-2090) is expected for the north of the country, mainly  
Figure 2: The three main grid systems in Mozambique with existing or planned large power plants. Source: author. in the rainy season between December to February. A decrease is projected for the west, south and central regions of the country (including the Zambezi valley) during the onset of the rainy season, with a strong decrease of up to 31% projected for September and October. Another decrease for the south of the country is expected for the main rainy season [7; 9; 14]. Climate change is projected to alter the frequency of precipitation, floods and drought events in Mozambique. Regional studies have been made for the Zambezi River, which has the largest river basin, where [PERSON] estimates the output from major Zambezi hydropower plants to decline by 10-20% under a drying climate [6; 9; 11; 15]. To mediate the potential reduction, [PERSON] argues for an increased cooperative governance arrangement to manage shared water resources in the entire southern African region, which could be enhanced by targeted political initiatives. Figure 3: Manica province at central Mozambique showing the altitude and the local river basin. Temperature and evapotranspiration are projected to increase in Mozambique while precipitation is projected to decrease [7; 8; 14].