Beyond Traditional Metrics: Exploring the Potential of Hybrid Algorithms for Drought Characterization and Prediction in the Tromso Region, Norway  
[PERSON]  
1 The Center for Sami Studies, UiT Norges Arkitske Universiteet, N-9037 Tromso, Norway 12 Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, 15 Temmuz Sehitleri Campus, Ankara Yildirim Beyazt University, Ankara 06010, Turkey 2  
Turker Tugrul  
3 Research and Development Institution Office, Central Campus, Gazi University, Ankara 06560, Turkaye;  
3 [PERSON]SS]  
[PERSON]  
4 Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Central Campus, Aksaray University,  
at any time during the year. Moreover, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts an increase in these numbers due to the impact of climate change and population increase. Rising temperatures, severe droughts and floods, and an increasing number of extreme events can threaten water security in most of the regions around the world. Future climate projections also suggest that Europe will experience significant drying, even under less aggressive pathway scenarios (SSP126 and SSP245) [7]. With climate projections indicating a long-term slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during this century [8], findings point to an increased drought risk. This risk is in addition to that driven by the global warming signal, particularly affecting the central and southern regions of Europe in the coming decades [1]. Northern Europe, among other regions, is not an exception, and the region also experiences significant changes. Although the anticipated rise in precipitation in Northern Europe is primarily expected during the winter and autumn seasons, whereas a decrease in precipitation is forecasted for the spring and summer months [9]. In 2018, significant areas of Northern Europe experienced a severe drought. [PERSON] et al. [10] highlighted that gaining a deeper insight into the characteristics and the overarching atmospheric patterns that drive such events is crucial for improving drought prediction and management strategies. Their results, characterized by significant spatial and temporal variability, underscore the complexity of analyzing drought events within various components of the hydrological cycle. It was also demonstrated by [PERSON] et al. [11] that the summer of 2018 was extreme in the observational record for Europe and that heat anomalies of this magnitude are expected to occur much more frequently in a warmer world, potentially occurring almost every year with a global warming increase of +2 \({}^{\circ}\)C. Furthermore, at the start of 2022, numerous regions faced intense drought conditions, further compounding the challenges across Europe [12]. While drought conditions have become less severe in Northern Europe [13; 14; 15], [PERSON] et al. [16] found a tendency towards larger water deficits in Southeastern Norway. Additionally, the impacts of changing climatic conditions in the Arctic are occurring at an unprecedented rate and scale, significantly outpacing projections for other global regions. In Sappi, these changes are expected to have profound effects on nature, ecosystems, and their composition, thereby impacting the entire Sami cultural landscape [17]. All observed hydroclimatic changes have drawn increasing attention on northern high-latitude research [18; 19]. In order to reduce and prevent these negative effects of droughts, scientists have been tracking droughts for a while and trying to convert them into a mathematical form. For this reason, to inform monitoring systems and reveal key drought characteristics, such as duration, frequency, severity, and spatial extent, drought indices have been developed, which vary in the variables used for drought characterization and the level of complexity [20; 21].