# The Hydroological Balance in Micro-Watersheds Is Affected by Climate Change and Land Use Changes
## 4 Conclusions  
A major cause of the decline in temperate forest cover in the study area is the frequency of forest fires; between 1995 and 2021, forest area declined by 16%. The climatic changes and land use changes could be integrated into WEAP software to measure the trajectories and hydrological responses of the micro-watershers. The WEAP model was calibrated and validated to predict the hydrological response in the three micro-watershers in an acceptable manner.  
According to the models, the climatic changes presented by the GCMs under the most drastic scenario conditions, SSP5-8.5, will significantly modify the balance and distribution of the hydrological balance flows at the microbasin level, mainly due to the increase in the values of precipitation and temperature. Even under the conditions of the positive scenario of land use change that would imply the application of actions (reforestation, stimulation of natural regeneration, commercial plantations, fire control) that would mitigate the effects of climate change, it would be impossible to completely reverse the changes in hydrological balance. The imbalance would be reflected mainly in the amount and distribution of surface runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and base flow.  
However, in the upper parts of the microbasins where temperate forest predominates, the climatic variations of the SSP5-8.5 scenarios could be contained under the conditions of the positive scenario of land use change. The simulations of the three GCMs indicated that there would be an average decrease in surface runoff and an increase in soil moisture compared with the current values and with the negative scenarios of land use change. This means that the conservation, management, and increase in the cover of the temperate forest can mitigate part of the impacts caused by climate change. However, under these conditions in the surfaces where the temperate forest predominates, there would also be modifications of the hydrological balance, mainly the increase in evapotranspiration (caused by the increase in temperature and seasonal precipitation), which would influence significant decreases in the low flow and interflow. The alteration of these last two flows will decrease the water available in the soil.  
It is expected that the decrease in temperate forest cover caused by forest fires will intensify due to extreme climate changes (temperature and wind), conditions that will modify the natural regime of fire. This will cause significant alterations in the hydrological balance, mainly by reducing the rain interception of the canopy, increasing surface runoff velocity and flow, and altering soil structure and composition; therefore, there would be a reduction in the infiltration and recharge rates of aquifers. Therefore, the availability of hydrological and environmental services will be compromised in the aquifer to which the study area belongs. It will not be possible to meet the demand for groundwater, especially for public use in the urban areas of the region.  
Conceptualization, A.I.M.-R.; Data curation, V.H.R.-G.; Formal analysis, A.I.M.-R.; Methodology, V.H.R.-G., C.-A.-G., A.G.R.-G. and A.I.M.-R.; Software, V.H.R.-G.; Supervision, C.A.-G.; Validation, A.I.M.-R.; Writing--original draft, V.H.R.-G., C.A.-G., A.G.R.-G. and A.I.M.-R. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. The APC was funded by DGIP program by Universidad Autonoma Chapingo.  
Not applicable.  
Data Availability StatementData are available upon request from the corresponding author.  
Gratitude is extended to the Universidad de Almeria, Universidad Autonoma Chapingo, DGIP and Division de Ciencias Forestales. We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions.  
The authors declare no conflict of interest.