# A Study on a Scenario-Based Security Incident Prediction System for Cybersecurity
## 6 The MITRE Corporation ATT&CK Framework Analysis
### Classification of Attack Types and Feasible Tactics for Attack Simulation  
The classification of attack types and feasible tactics is essential for simulating realistic attack scenarios and designing effective defensive strategies. Using the MITRE ATT&CK framework, this study categorizes various attack types based on tactics and techniques frequently employed by adversaries. Figures 5 and 6 illustrate the simulated techniques  
Figure 4: MITRE ATT&CK Matrix Data.  
corresponding to each tactic and provide insights into their feasibility and unique characteristics.  
The classification process began with an analysis of the tactics and techniques documented in the ATT&CK framework, which organizes adversarial behavior into 14 high-level tactics, each encompassing multiple techniques. These techniques were selected based on their relevance to the scenarios explored in this study, as well as their frequency of occurrence in documented cyberattacks. For example, initial access techniques such as phishing and valid account abuse were mapped to scenarios simulating social engineering and insider threats. This mapping provides a structured foundation for understanding the progression of attacks and planning effective countermeasures.  
As depicted in Figure 5, the techniques selected for simulation were evaluated for their feasibility within the context of this study. The evaluation considered factors such as the availability of tools, the complexity of execution, and the potential impact on targeted systems. For instance, the use of credential dumping was deemed both impactful and highly feasible due to its reliance on publicly available tools. Similarly, data exfiltration was analyzed for its adaptability to multiple scenarios, reflecting its versatility as a tactic in real-world breaches [33].  
Figure 6 complements this analysis by highlighting specific peculiarities of each technique. For example, the simulation of spear phishing required the incorporation of email spoofing and malicious attachments, while lateral movement scenarios necessitated tools for exploiting weak authentication mechanisms. This detailed breakdown not only demonstrates the adaptability of the selected techniques but also ensures that the simulations align closely with realistic attack patterns.  
The classification framework developed in this section serves as the backbone for the scenario-based simulations conducted in subsequent sections. By aligning the selected techniques with real-world adversarial behaviors, this study ensures that the proposed defense mechanisms are both practical and robust. Furthermore, the integration of the MITRE ATT&CK framework allows for a standardized approach to evaluating the effectiveness of security measures, contributing to the broader applicability of the findings.  
Figure 5: List of techniques that can be simulated according to tactics and techniques.  
Figure 6: Testing the feasibility and peculiarities of detailed techniques.  
Through this detailed analysis and the visual aids provided in Figures 5 and 6, this section establishes a clear and systematic approach to classifying attack types and their corresponding tactics. This comprehensive foundation is critical for designing simulations that accurately reflect the evolving landscape of cybersecurity threats [34].