## 5 Conclusions  
This study developed an integrated energy demand-supply modeling framework to assess the impact of environmental policies on Zambia's decarbonization of the power sector. First, the demand side model was developed based on the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) time series method. Thereafter, the projected electricity demand in the demand-side model was given to the supply-side model based on minimizing the total discounted costs for supplying future energy demands. The energy supply model considers a full horizon from 2019 to 2035. Input data for all technologies included fuel prices, capital, operation and maintenance costs, technical performance factors, demand, and policies. The modeling results conclude a lack of self-sufficiency in the country to meet future electricity demand. The baseline scenario results revealed an alarming oil(FO) rate estimated on the horizon. The available generation capacity against peak demand recorded an average deficit of 623 MW from 2023 to 2035. The policies that favor integrating renewable energy technologies are important to help increase electricity generation. The scenario analysis conducted in this study showed that the Zambia power sector can meet the future increase in demand (3179 MWa in 2035) by integrating more renewable energy sources into its system. Incorporating renewable technologies in the energy system consequentially led to an observed increased LCOE for both wind and solar power plants. To improve the shortfall of electricity while considering clean energy, diversifying energy sources by using more solar and wind while curbing the use of coal and other fossil fuels can lead to low pollution levels and increased flexible generation. The current baseline scenario contributes 45.4% of the renewable share, with hydro being fixed, making it difficult to mitigate the effects of climate change. The cost of power for the renewable system may be competitive initially, but as a whole energy system, the costs subside eventually. The Zambia government emphasized the need to diversify energy sources after the unprecedented power shortfall in 2016 [35]. The seasonality of hydro is a huge concern for the country, especially with the current power cuts. The NC scenario contributes to about 50.84% of the renewable share in the energy system. The emissions target scenarios constrain the use of fossil fuels by using more renewable energy while still meeting the demand of the country. The 50% emission reduction scenario shows a 65.03% renewable share contribution in 2035. These scenarios show that resource exploration in renewable energy can provide actionable global climate change policies on the current energy system. Overall, each scenario, excluding the baseline, has shown efforts in decarbonization measures such as extensive use of renewable resources. The rationing of power in Zambia is a significant issue that needs policy diversification and integration of other energy sources. As much as hydropower is the main energy source, the severity of droughs in the country has led to power shortages. Therefore, the electricity supply must be explored to its full potential for Zambia's economic growth forecast to increase. The goal is to improve carbon emissions by using renewable sources and help provide clean energy to people in rural and urban areas at a fair cost. Climate policy is essential to ensure a future reduction of Zambia's CO2 emissions as the country strives for higher levels of economic activity. Conceptualization and methodology, P.P.D. and H.F.; investigation, data curation, P.P.D. ; writing--original draft preparation, P.P.D. ; writing--review, editing, and supervision H.F. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. This research received no external funding. **Institutional Review Board Statement:** Not applicable. **Informed Consent Statement:** Not applicable. **Data Availability Statement:** Not applicable.