## 3 Results
### Use of LNG in Maritime Transport vs. The Natural Environment  
Since the day of entry into force of the sulfur directive introducing requirements for lower toxic emissions [136; 137], the demand for LNG as shipping fuel has been on an upward trend (Figure 8). The model of global LNG supply shows that production will go up from 406 m tons per year (MTPA) in 2024 to the forecast 710 MTPA in 2035. The trend for the years 2000-2025 is clearly rising [138; 139; 140; 141]. Figure 8: LNG production and demand for LNG bunkering [142; 143; 144]. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline  & **Western Baltic** & **Southern Baltic** & **Gulf of Finland** & **Sea of Aland** & **Bothnian Sea** & **Norra Kurken** & **Bothnian Bay** \\ \hline Mean & 1.3 & 1.9 & 4.3 & 2.3 & 4.1 & 6.2 & 7.9 \\ Max & 5.6 & 4.8 & 6.6 & 5.8 & 6.5 & 8.0 & 9.3 \\ Min & 0.0 & 0.1 & 0.8 & 0.0 & 0.5 & 2.9 & 5.6 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 9: Ice severity rates in the reference period 1971–1990 [132]. The global demand for LNG as bunkering fuel spiked from 9 m tons in 2021 to 16.6 m tons in 2025, only to go up to the forecast 53.2 m tons in 2040. The growth in demand is driven by the increasing use of LNG as alternative fuel in maritime transport [145; 147; 148; 149]. The number of vessels navigating the Baltic Sea changes year by year. In 2024, the total number of units rendering services in the area and entering the ports of Gdansk, Gdynia, Szczecin, Swinoujscie, Police, Darlowo, Elblag, Frombork, Hel, Kolobrzeg, Krynica Morska, Miedzyzdroje, Sport, Stepnica, Trzebiez, Ustka, and Wladyslawowo stood at 20,690 (Table 10). Considering the growing number of sea-going vessels, it is necessary to determine the size of the LNG fleet in the area. A forecast of the number of LNG-powered ships navigating the Baltic Sea has been made based on the share of LNG-powered ships to the total number of vessels, taking into consideration worldwide trends and changing time regulations, which affect the choice of fuels. The forecast has been made based on the following:  
* An analysis of worldwide trends in the use of LNG--recent years saw growth in the number of LNG-powered ships (especially in Europe), where anti-emission regulations are becoming more and more stringent;
* A division into regions--increased interest in and demand for environmentally friendly fuels suggest that growth in the share of LNG-powered vessels in Europe (including the Baltic Sea) will depend on the introduced regulations, e.g., requirements for the SECA areas or CO\({}_{2}\) limits;
* A forecast for the Baltic Sea--on the basis of the assumptions referred to above, a conservative forecast has been made based on assumed growth in the number of LNG-powered vessels in the region under analysis by 10-15% annually, starting from 2020. Based on an assumed percentage of LNG-powered ships navigating the Baltic Sea in 2020 of 4% and annual growth by 10-15%, the number of LNG-powered ships has been calculated. A total number of 100,000 vessels navigating worldwide has been assumed by all types until 2020 (Figure 9). The forecast number of LNG-powered ships navigating the Baltic Sea in the 2035 time horizon shows significant growth. In 2020, the estimated number of vessels stands at 827, which is bound to increase to 3454 by the year 2035 based on assumed yearly growth by 10%. The increase is driven by the growing interest in environmentally friendly fuels and the introduction of anti-emission regulations, which make ship operators consider LNG as a more environmentally friendly fuel. The development of the LNG market in the Baltic Sea calls for an analysis of the hydrological and meteorological conditions in the southern part of the Baltic Sea. These conditions are crucial for ensuring the safety of transportation and bunkering of LNG, taking into consideration variable weather conditions, waves, sea currents, seasonal changes in the density of maritime traffic, etc.