# Projected Wind Energy Maximum Potential in Lithuania
## 4 Discussion  
Analyzing the wind speed in Lithuania's territory, according to observational data over 1980-2020 and projected according to the most likely SSP2-4.5 scenario over 2020-2100, the wind speed is predicted to decrease throughout the country. Additionally, it should be noted that the projected wind speed decreases at a lower rate than the observed wind speed. This is an understandable phenomenon if we take into account the fact that as the climate warms, the equatorial temperature increases at a lower rate than in the polar regions. As a consequence, the temperature difference between the equator and the polar regions decreases, and as a result, the global atmospheric circulation weakens. The wind speed comparison for the most severe SSP5-8.5 scenario and the most likely SSP2-4.5 scenario meets this assumption [21]: the decrease in wind speed for the first, most severe scenario is \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c} \hline \hline  & **Coastal** & **Central** & **Eastern** \\ \hline E-82 & 1 926 & 864 & 156 \\ \hline E-115 & 3 762 & 1 686 & 300 \\ \hline E-101 & 2 874 & 1 284 & 234 \\ \hline E-126 & 4 470 & 1 992 & 360 \\ \hline E-126 EP4 & 4 560 & 2 040 & 342 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 5: Comparison of average yearly energy output (MWh) by a single turbine. Figure 7: Energy profile of different wind turbines in the eastern region. bigger than for the second. The global temperature for the SSP5-8.5 scenario is projected to increase by more than 4 \({}^{\circ}\)C by the end of the 21 st century, while the temperature will increase by 2.7 \({}^{\circ}\)C for the SSP2-4.5 scenario compared to pre-industrial levels. The results show that wind speeds will decrease across the entire territory of Lithuania during the ongoing century. The coastal region is projected to experience the greatest decrease in wind speed, with some models predicting a 50% decrease, while in the eastern, more continental part of the country, the decrease is only predicted to be 10% (the distance from the Baltic Sea is about 300 km). These results are in line with previous authors' studies which have used wind projection data from RCP scenarios [38, 43]. Comparison with other authors' studies on 21 st century windiness yields ambiguous results. For example, [PERSON] et al. [19] found an increase in wind speed in Northern and Central Europe and a decrease in Southern Europe [19]. However, more studies have shown a general trend of decreasing wind speeds in Europe [44], but in the Baltic region, the data from RCP projections have shown a slight increase in wind speeds [45]. To conclude this part of the discussion, it should be noted that the spatial resolution of global models is too coarse to estimate windiness reliably at the regional level [37]. Another feature of the analyzed wind speed data is that the different global circulation models produce a smaller spread in wind speed trends. Studies by other researchers using data from RCP scenarios [18, 24, 38], among which this review [22] should likely be noted, have shown that both the Baltic region and Northern Europe show different trends in wind speeds. Some authors state that wind will increase in this region, while others predict that it will decrease slightly, and there are also studies that show little change [38]. Such differences are probably related to the fact that different GCM models were analyzed. The projected wind speed data used for this study and other investigations [17] are characterized by stability of variation, so it can be said that the wind speed data under SSP scenarios are better suited for solving applied problems. Of course, a more detailed analysis of the wind data should be performed for a more reliable conclusion. The impact of future changes on wind speed, which is relevant for wind energy production, is analyzed as the occurrence of wind speeds at the turbine hub height, which is below the cut-in velocity and above the cut-out velocity of the chosen wind turbine [18, 21, 24].