## 4 Discussion
### Offensive and Defensive Performance Indicators and Physical and Transition Metrics
Losing teams faced higher defensive pressures, with a mean of 283.20 (SD = 66.9, 95% CI [260.23, 306.17]) compared to winning teams (M = 209.86, SD = 57.5, 95% CI [190.10, 229.61]). This is consistent with prior research indicating that teams subjected to sustained pressure struggle to maintain possession and dictate play, resulting in reactive rather than proactive defensive postures [19]. Furthermore, winning teams executed significantly more completed line breaks (M = 118, SD = 28.6, 95% CI [105.0, 124.7]) compared to losses (M = 81.0, SD = 29.1, 95% CI [73.1, 93.1]) and draws (M = 92.0, SD = 19.2, 95% CI [81.6, 97.1]), indicating superior ability to penetrate opponent defensive lines and create attacking opportunities, a finding aligned with literature highlighting the importance of defensive line penetration in elite performance [11; 12]. This is further reinforced by [PERSON] [54], who demonstrated that transitions beginning in advanced areas and targeting disorganized defensive structures significantly increase the likelihood of offensive sector entry, thereby highlighting the vulnerability of teams that apply high defensive pressure without maintaining structural compactness. The results of the present study are further supported by [PERSON] and [PERSON] [1], who found that losing teams performed more clearances, tackles, and blocks in the defensive third, suggesting defensive overload rather than controlled strategy. Moreover, recent tactical analyses emphasized the value of organized, proactive defending. During the FIFA World Cup 2022, successful teams were not characterized by higher volumes of defensive actions, but by their ability to reduce available playing space and maintain advanced defensive lines [20]. Similarly, in top-tier European leagues, bottom-tier teams exhibited more last-resort defensive actions, which correlated with poorer outcomes due to reduced technical and transitional control [22]. The positive association between total distance covered and match success observed in our study supports the established link between higher work rate and favorable competitive outcomes [8,18]. Winning teams covered on average 111.56 km (SD = 5.5, 95% CI [109.68, 113.43]), compared to draws (107.55 km, SD = 4.9, 95% CI [105.56, 109.53]) and losses (111.59 km, SD = 5.9, 95% CI [109.56, 113.63]). Although higher physical output was advantageous, receptions in the final third negatively predicted winning, with winning teams averaging 165.37 receptions (SD = 102.7, 95% CI [130.09, 200.66]); however, this high reception volume may reflect territory control without effective execution. This result may reflect sterile possession in advanced zones, lacking effective penetration or outcome-oriented actions necessary to translate possession into scoring opportunities. Similarly, [PERSON] and [PERSON] [2], analyzing match data from an English League One professional soccer team across the 2012/13, 2013/14 and 2014/15 seasons, found that a higher number of final third entries did not correspond to superior performance. Specifically, during Season One (S1), the team achieved greater goal output despite significantly fewer final third entries compared to Season Three (S3), where 13% of entries led to a shot and only 6% to a shot on target, both rates approximately 5% lower than in S1, indicating that offensive efficiency, rather than quantity of entries, is more determinative of success. This supports the interpretation that higher receptions in the final third may reflect ineffective or non-threatening possession, especially when not coupled with efficient shot creation or conversion, as also noted by [PERSON] and [PERSON] [2]. Moreover, S1 had fewer penalty box entries yet more goals, implying that direct play and early shooting may have been more effective than extended build-up. These patterns underscore that productive actions in the final third, such as shot creation and conversion, are more impactful than territorial occupation alone.