# Women's Singles Tennis Match Analysis and Probability of Winning a Point
## 4 Discussion  
This research analysed the probability of winning a point in high-level women's tennis by combining various performance indicators. The results have significant potential for improving both training and match strategies. The scientific literature has highlighted the importance of starting a point with a first serve as an influential factor regarding the likelihood of winning the point later [22; 26; 27]. In our study, we observed that the ball was put into play with a first serve in a range between 60.3% and 62.5% on different surfaces (clay, grass, and hard court)--values that are similar to those reported in previous research on elite female tennis players in recent years [4; 28]. No major differences were found compared to the data collected in men's tennis [22; 27]. Depending on the playing surface, the probability of winning a point when putting the ball in play with a first serve was 61% on clay, 70% on grass, and 69% on hard court, while with a second serve the values ranged from 55% to 57%. These percentages are lower compared to those reported for men when using first services and similar to those when using second services [22; 29]. These data support the idea that the chances of winning a point decrease considerably when the second serve is used, especially on fast courts--a finding that has also been corroborated by previous research [11; 18; 30; 31]. This information emphasises the importance of designing training that focuses on improving first-serve performance for a number of reasons. On the one hand, an increase of up to 6% in the probability of winning a point on clay and an increase of 12-13% on fast courts has been demonstrated when using the first serve. On the other hand, in high-pressure situations, such as break points, the outcome of the point can be crucial to the final outcome of the match, and effective use of the first serve can make all the difference. Inaddition, it has been confirmed that more aces occur on fast surfaces, such as grass and hard court, compared to clay--a pattern that has been observed in similar studies in both men's and women's tennis [18; 32]. This phenomenon can be explained by the specific frictional and restitution properties of these surfaces, which make the ball faster and more difficult to return, especially after a service [33]. Around 70% of the points analysed concluded with a short rally (1-4 shots), regardless of the surface--a percentage similar to that reported in investigations of the 2016 and 2017 season, which hovered around 66% [7]. Although in the 1980s and 1990s, clay-court rallies tended to be significantly longer compared to grass- and hard-court rallies [34; 35; 36], recent research has indicated that the differences in rally length between the different surfaces have been reduced since the mid-2000s [37; 38]. This might suggest that, from a strategic perspective, the style of play has become more homogeneous, regardless of the surface. This may be due to several factors: on the one hand, to the improvement of materials and the change in playing surfaces; and on the other hand, to the improvement of the conditional capacity that has been detrimental to greater tactical variability in the game. Research confirms that the combination of a first serve followed by a short rally offers the serving player the highest probability of winning a point on any surface, with percentages ranging from 65% to 75%. This finding is consistent with previous studies in both men and women [22; 30; 39; 40]. Similarly, other research has shown that players who master short rallies (0-4 strokes) have an 85% chance of winning a match on clay and an 87% chance on grass [3; 7]; it is therefore advisable that training sessions focus on optimising this tactical aspect of the game. It is worth noting that the chances of winning a point with a combination of first serve and short rally are slightly higher for men (77% on clay and around 80% on fast surfaces) than for women [22].