# Application of Machine Learning Techniques to
## 4 Results and Discussion
### Seasonal Precipitation Trend Projection  
The significance of seasonal precipitation trends for the period of 2006-2099, as detected by the MK trend detection test, for forcing scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, are presented in Figure 11. The distribution of \(p\)-value spatially for the MK test has been presented. Spatial patterns of the estimated Sen's slope exhibit negative and positive slopes for the trends in different seasons, as shown in Figure 12. The significance of the trends was identified via the MK test of trend detection, as shown in Figure 11. For the warm-wet season, with the RCP 4.5 forcing scenario (refer to Figure 12a), 28% of the total study region yielded very strong and 5% of the total study region yielded strong evidence for decreasing precipitation at values of 2.2-3.29 mm yr\({}^{-1}\) over the central and northwest of the area. For RCP 4.5, 67% of the region showed no or weak decreasing trends. However, for the RCP 8.5 (Figure 12e), weak evidence for increasing trends was detected in the central and southeast region at 0.5-2 mm yr\({}^{-1}\), except for certain areas in the central to western regions, where we detected a non-significant decreasing trend, with a slope of 1-3.29 mm yr\({}^{-1}\). Figure 11 depicts the \(p\)-values for the MK trend detection, which shows significant and non-significant trends.  
For the cold-dry season and RCP 4.5 (Figure 12b), nearly all the regions of the study area had weak, increasing trends with Sen's slopes of 0-0.5 mm yr\({}^{-1}\), which are not significant, as depicted in Figure 11. On the other hand, for RCP 8.5 (Figure 12f), weak decreasing trends were detected in the central and southwest regions and certain areas of the southeast, with Sen's slopes of 0.2 mm yr\({}^{-1}\). Here, 80% of the total area had weak evidence of increasing trends at 0.5-1.5 mm/season/year.  
For the cold-wet season for the RCP 4.5 (Figure 12c), the weak decreasing trend, with Sen's slopes of 0.2-0.5 mm yr\({}^{-1}\), was detected in the central and southwest parts of the area. High and  
Figure 11: The \(p\)-values of the MK test for the best-correlated models for the period (2006–2099) for warm-wet, cold-dry, cold-wet and warm-dry for (**a**) Forcing Scenario of RCP 4.5 (**b**) Forcing Scenario of RCP 8.5. The blue and green shades are depicting that the Null Hypothesis of “no trend” is rejected.  
weak increasing trends were detected in the northwest and southeast parts of the area, respectively. The positive slope varies between 0.5 and 2 mm yr\({}^{-1}\).  
For the cold-wet season in the RCP 8.5 (Figure 12g), a non-significant decreasing trend was detected with Sen's slopes varying between 0.5 and 0.2 mm yr\({}^{-1}\) in the central area, whereas in other regions, a weak, increasing trend was detected with slopes varying between 0.5 and 2 mm yr\({}^{-1}\).  
Unlike for the warm-dry season and RCP 4.5 (Figure 12d), there is strong evidence for an increase in the precipitation for the whole study area with \(p\)-values from the MK trend detection at less than 0.05 for nearly the entire study area, with the Sen's slope indicating an increase in the precipitation rate with values varying between 1.5 and 3.5 mm yr\({}^{-1}\). The same is the case for RCP 8.5 in the warm-dry season based on strong evidence of an increase in the precipitation throughout the entire area, with Sen's slope values varying between 1.5 and 3.5 mm yr\({}^{-1}\) (Figure 12h). Figure 11 shows the \(p\)-values for the MK test for the best-correlated models (2006-2099) for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5.