# Characterization and Modelling of Potential Seaborne Disasters, in the ANA Region
## 2 Practitioners' Incident Characterization and Risk Assessment Priorities
Similar challenges were highlighted in Iceland, while also suggesting that developments in international trade and increased shipping activity would likely result in monitoring and surveillance challenges. In considering the risks and potential severity associated with seaborne disasters, ref. [7] present a number of categorizations focusing on individual vessel types, associated risk factors, and the potential consequences of each across the set of geographical focal points. Groundings were suggested to be the most frequent types of incidents occurring throughout the study, highlighting the amplified consequences of such incidents within the high north as a result of unprotected coastlines and limited salvage options due to the vast distances within the Arctic. The likelihood of collisions between vessels was suggested to be relatively low as a result of improvements in navigation, collision avoidance, and ice forecasting technology. This appears to be in contradiction with the findings presented by [5] and might show the dissonance between perceptions of SAR practitioners and incident statistics. It is worth to note, however, that the ANA region is experiencing a continuous increase in maritime activity across a multitude of shipping domains [3; 7; 11]. This research suggests that the probability of collisions could increase as a result of these increases in activity [5]. Research completed by the SEDNA project [11] lends support to these proposed increases in maritime transport activity, citing how increases in shipping activity, particularly mainstream cargo handling/trade, poses a number of challenges and increased likelihoods of this type of incident occurring within the Arctic. The same argument is further emphasised by a recent review about risk of shipping in the Arctic [12]. The research suggests that there is a high probability associated with potential fires on board vessels. Similar to collisions, Arctic specific considerations such as vast distances and limited salvage options further amplify potential risks/consequences of seaborne fire incidents as, depending on the severity of an incident, a lack of assistance could result in a significant escalation in terms of the severity of potential outcomes. While analysis by [7] would concur with the increased prevalence of incidents on board fishing vessels, due to their size and limited crew numbers, while the frequency of incidents is suggested to be high, the resulting consequences are deemed to be low. Dry cargo vessels were suggested to demonstrate a relatively low frequency and potential consequences of incidents; however [5] suggest a 17% increase in incidents throughout the last 60 years. In terms of liquid cargo, specifically oil and chemical tankers, ref. [7] suggest that improvements in international cooperation and technologies have reduced the likelihood of incidents such as collisions or groundings occurring on board these vessels. These improvements are a result of significant investment in oil and gas exploration efforts within the ANA. Ref. [11] highlight examples such as the significant investment in geographical areas such as the NSR (Northern Sea Route), detailing how increased hydrographic survey efforts in areas associated with oil and gas exploration have reduced the likelihood of incidents on board tankers occurring. While the likelihood of navigation timed incidents has reduced, ref. [7] highlight technology shortcomings in cargo handling equipment, particularly in terms of adapting to extreme cold climates. This poses a number of challenges, particularly if dealing with large volumes of materials such as crude oil. Finally, ref. [10] highlight the significant increases in cruise traffic, lending support to the previously cited findings of [5] citing incidents relating to cruise ships/passenger vessels as being an area of extreme concern for SAR/emergency management practitioners within the ANA.