## 5 Results and Discussion
### Comparative Analysis of Ionospheric Scintillations
In July 2020, variability in the relationship between TEC levels and scintillation occurrences was noted, with high TEC days often correlating with increased scintillations. This period, characterized by lower solar activity and milder geomagnetic conditions, still demonstrated the significant influence of elevated electron densities on the ionosphere, underscoring the complex dynamics shaped by various environmental factors. The comparative analysis from January, March, and July across both 2015 and 2020 highlights significant seasonal and annual variations in the interplay between TEC and ionospheric scintillations. These findings underscore the complex dynamics of the ionosphere, influenced by electron content and modulated by varying levels of geomagnetic, solar, and atmospheric conditions. Each period demonstrates unique characteristics in how geomagnetic parameters influence ionospheric conditions, offering insights into the timing and intensity of disturbances impacting satellite communications. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multicolumn{2}{c}{**Period of Time**} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{**2015**} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{**2020**} \\ \cline{3-8} \multicolumn{2}{c}{} & **January** & **March** & **July** & **January** & **March** & **July** \\ \hline \multirow{8}{*}{**Ionospheric conditions**} & Mean VTEC (TECU) & 23.31 & 29.26 & 12.36 & 9.26 & 11.81 & 7.77 \\ \cline{2-8}  & Mean S4 & 0.152 & 0.148 & 0.147 & 0.130 & 0.128 & 0.130 \\ \cline{2-8}  & Scintillation & \multirow{2}{*}{19.32\%} & \multirow{2}{*}{17.46\%} & \multirow{2}{*}{17.09\%} & \multirow{2}{*}{10.55\%} & \multirow{2}{*}{11.14\%} & \multirow{2}{*}{11.50\%} \\  & Occurrence (S4 \(>\) 0.2) & & & & & & \\ \hline \multirow{8}{*}{**ConvGRU-L\({}_{\text{C}}\)**} & \multirow{2}{*}{Modeling} & CC & 0.91 & 0.91 & 0.92 & 0.94 & 0.92 & 0.92 \\ \cline{2-8}  & & RMSE & 0.008 & 0.009 & 0.009 & 0.006 & 0.007 & 0.007 \\ \cline{2-8}  & Mean Error (ME) & 0.019 & 0.017 & 0.016 & 0.011 & 0.013 & 0.014 \\ \cline{2-8}  & \multirow{2}{*}{Prediction} & CC & 0.80 & 0.80 & 0.81 & 0.83 & 0.82 & 0.85 \\ \cline{2-8}  & & RMSE & 0.024 & 0.024 & 0.022 & 0.013 & 0.016 & 0.016 \\ \cline{2-8}  & & Mean Error (ME) & 0.04 & 0.04 & 0.03 & 0.02 & 0.02 & 0.02 \\ \hline \multirow{8}{*}{**ConvGRU-L\({}_{\text{log-cosh}}\)**} & \multirow{2}{*}{Modeling} & CC & 0.88 & 0.89 & 0.89 & 0.91 & 0.90 & 0.90 \\ \cline{2-8}  & & RMSE & 0.013 & 0.013 & 0.012 & 0.010 & 0.010 & 0.011 \\ \cline{2-8}  & & Mean Error (ME) & 0.025 & 0.023 & 0.022 & 0.019 & 0.020 & 0.021 \\ \cline{2-8}  & \multirow{2}{*}{Prediction} & CC & 0.77 & 0.78 & 0.78 & 0.81 & 0.80 & 0.83 \\ \cline{2-8}  & & RMSE & 0.039 & 0.035 & 0.030 & 0.022 & 0.023 & 0.025 \\ \cline{2-8}  & & Mean Error (ME) & 0.06 & 0.05 & 0.04 & 0.03 & 0.03 & 0.03 \\ \hline \multirow{8}{*}{**ConvGRU-L\({}_{\text{S}}\)**} & \multirow{2}{*}{Modeling} & CC & 0.86 & 0.86 & 0.87 & 0.92 & 0.91 & 0.90 \\ \cline{2-8}  & & RMSE & 0.014 & 0.014 & 0.013 & 0.009 & 0.010 & 0.010 \\ \cline{2-8}  & & Mean Error (ME) & 0.026 & 0.025 & 0.024 & 0.018 & 0.019 & 0.021 \\ \cline{2-8}  & \multirow{2}{*}{Prediction} & CC & 0.75 & 0.75 & 0.76 & 0.80 & 0.79 & 0.81 \\ \cline{2-8}  & & RMSE & 0.042 & 0.038 & 0.032 & 0.020 & 0.019 & 0.023 \\ \cline{2-8}  & & Mean Error (ME) & 0.07 & 0.06 & 0.05 & 0.04 & 0.04 & 0.04 & 004 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 2: Summary of monthly ionospheric parameter values and model accuracy metrics for South America, presenting the average monthly values of ionospheric parameters, including VTEC, S4, and the percentage occurrence of ionospheric scintillation (S4 \(>\) 0.2). Also included are the accuracy metrics for ionospheric scintillation modeling and prediction—Mean Error (ME), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC)—utilizing ConvGRU-L\({}_{\text{C}}\), ConvGRU-L\({}_{\text{log-cosh}}\) and ConvGRU-L\({}_{\text{S}}\) methods. The data are compiled for January, March, and July in 2015 and 2020.