## 4 Geomagnetic Activities Affecting Ionospheric Scintillation  
This study employed specific geomagnetic parameters known to influence the ionosphere, particularly those that contribute to the genesis of ionospheric irregularities. These parameters were utilized as indicators for identifying temporal intervals susceptible to ionospheric scintillation. The rationale behind this approach was grounded in the understanding that variations in geomagnetic activities exert a direct influence on the manifestation of ionospheric disturbances, including ionospheric scintillation, especially in regions of low latitude [10]. To investigate ionospheric scintillation, the research incorporated a range of geomagnetic parameters. These included the solar flux F10.7, the Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index, the sunspot number, and the international geomagnetic index Kp. Each of these parameters played a crucial role in providing insights into the various factors influencing ionospheric conditions. The Dst index serves as a crucial measure of magnetic activity, reflecting the intensity of the international equatorial electrojet. It is derived from horizontal geomagnetic observations collected by networks situated near the equator. A notable characteristic of the Dst index is that negative values signify a weakened magnetic field of the Earth, a phenomenon typically associated with the occurrence of geomagnetic storms. In parallel, the international geomagnetic index, Kp, functions as a key metric for assessing the Earth's geomagnetic activity. The Kp index is particularly relevant in the context of ionospheric scintillation, offering insights into periods of geomagnetic tranquility or disturbance. For instance, Kp values below 3 are indicative of quiet geomagnetic conditions [58]. The interplay between ionospheric irregularities and scintillations is significantly influenced by geomagnetic parameters such as the Kp index and Dst trends, with the impact varying depending on the local time sector. Moreover, recent studies have identified that plasma bubble irregularities and scintillations can exhibit both enhancement and inhibition across different latitudes during identical geomagnetic storms [59]. Another vital parameter in this domain is the sunspot number, which bears a direct relation to the Sun's magnetic field. Data suggest that the magnetic fields around sunspots are approximately a thousand  
Figure 2: The ConvGRU-based model for predicting the ionospheric scintillation of spatiotemporal series in the South American region. times stronger than the Sun's general magnetic field. An increase in sunspot numbers intensifies the Earth's magnetic field, leading to the emission of substantial energy into the atmosphere in the form of solar flares [60]. Lastly, the F10.7 index is used to measure solar flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, serving as an indicator of solar activity. Periods of high solar activity are often correlated with intense ionospheric scintillations, whereas lower solar activity tends to coincide with reduced scintillation levels [61]. This study necessitates an analysis of ionospheric scintillation behavior across various time frames, which entails a comprehensive assessment of geomagnetic parameter values within these specific intervals. Geomagnetic activity and its temporal effects allow for the categorization of ionospheric phenomena into three distinct seasonal periods: summer solstice, winter solstice, and equinox. Specifically, January, February, November, and December are classified as winter solstice months; May, June, July, and August are classified as summer solstice months; and March, April, September, and October are classified as equinox months. In this research, one month from each season was selected for detailed modeling and forecasting analysis, as outlined in [31]. Utilizing the data presented in Table 1 and depicted in Figure 3, this study assesses the impacts of geomagnetic parameters within these defined time frames.