# Beyond Static Estimates: Dynamic Simulation of Fire-Evacuation Interaction in Historical Districts
## 3 Results
### The Worst Fire and Evacuation Scenarios  
Sixteen fire cases are simulated within the historical district (Table 4). The most severe cases identified are Case 2 and Case 16, which account for the largest and second-largest burned and burning areas. The fire development simulations for the two most critical cases, with corresponding high-temperature zones, are displayed in Figure 5a-j, respectively. The combination of a centrally located ignition point, prevailing southwest winds, and elevated ambient temperatures in Case 2 leads to rapid fire spread, resulting in a burned area approximately 44.7% greater than the average burned area across all 16 analyzed cases. Case 16, which originates from an eastern point under winter conditions with an east wind also at 5 m/s, predominantly directs fire progression westward. Consequently, this case yields a burned area 40.9% greater than the average of all evaluated cases. Based on two critical scenarios (Case 2 and 16) and four warning distances (75 m, 150 m, 300 m, and 600 m), evacuation simulations are conducted, generating eight sets of results (Table 5). Scenarios 2-600 and 16-600 are selected for detailed discussion because their average evacuation distances--254.36 m and 260.2 m, respectively--exceed the group averages (249.04 m and 252.34 m) by 2.1% to 3.1%. Their average evacuation durations--586.52 s and 638.76 s--also significantly surpass the group averages (426.95 s and 525.23 s), with increases ranging from 37.4% to 49.5%. In comparison, Scenario 16-600 demonstrates a longer average evacuation time (638.76 s) and a longer average evacuation distance (260.2 m). Additionally, congested zones in Scenario 2-600 are located significantly closer to high-temperature areas, with an average distance of only 108 m. Both scenarios exhibit the same number of congested zones (14), indicating a similar degree of congestion. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Case**} & **Ignition** & **Burned Area** & **Burned Area** & **Burning** & **Burning** & **Wind** & **Ambient** \\  & **Point** & **(m\({}^{2}\))** & **Proportion** & **Area (m\({}^{2}\))** & **Proportion** & **Area** & **Dircection** & **Temperature** \\  & & & & & & & (\({}^{\circ}\)C) \\ \hline
2 & A & 133,410 & 54.01\% & 95,149 & 38.52\% & Southwest & 15 \\
16 & D & 129,894 & 52.59\% & 91,521 & 37.05\% & East & 15 \\ Average & - & 92,188 & 37.32\% & 65,389 & 26.47\% & - & - \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 4: The combination of fire development conditions and results. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Criteria**} & \multicolumn{5}{c}{**Scenarios**} \\  & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**2-600 1**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**Average of**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**16-600 1**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**Average of Case 16**} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{**Static**} \\  & & **Case 2 2** & & & & \\ \hline Minimum Evacuation Distance (m) & 1.01 & 5.08 & 5.29 & 6.97 & 3.59 \\ Maximum Evacuation Distance (m) & 685.16 & 743.62 & 539.19 & 613.63 & - \\ Average Evacuation Distance (m) & 254.36 & 249.04 & 260.2 & 252.34 & 209.4 \\ Minimum Evacuation Duration (s) & 9 & 7.5 & 7 & 9.25 & - \\ Maximum Evacuation Duration (s) & 2088 & 1752.25 & 1729 & 1822.25 & - \\ Average Evacuation Duration (s) & 586.52 & 426.95 & 638.76 & 525.23 & 447 \\ Congestion quantity & 14 & 7 & 14 & 6.25 & - \\ Average Distance between zones over & 169.05 & 108 & 308.48 & 268 & - \\
50 \({}^{\circ}\)C to Congestions (m) & & & & & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}  
* The first number in “Scenarios” denotes the fire development case, and the second indicates the evacuation warning distance; for example, “2-600” refers to Fire Development Case 2 with a warning distance of 600 m.
* “Case 2” denotes Fire Development Case 2, while “Average of Case 2” represents the mean value derived from the four warning-distance scenarios (75 m, 150 m, 300 m, and 900 m) within Fire Development Case 2.  
\end{table} 
Table 5: Evacuation-performance metrics for the worst scenarios (within the historical district).