# Jakarta Pandemic to Endemic Transition: Forecasting COVID-19 Using NNAR and LSTM
###### Abstract
Concerning the invasion of Omicron, the government of Indonesia implemented PPKM Level 3 in several provinces in Indonesia, including Jakarta [15]. The death cases in Jakarta due to COVID-19 can be seen in Figure 2. The death cases of COVID-19 in Jakarta tend to be sloping. Since the first 100 days of COVID-19 attacking Indonesia, death cases in Jakarta have increased. In addition, the death cases in Jakarta increased significantly in July 2021, with the highest confirmed death cases being 265 deaths on 20 July 2021. This high number of deaths due to COVID-19 is caused by the Delta variant that has entered Indonesia since April 2021. A study conducted by the Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia (FKUI) and the government of Jakarta showed that old age, pneumonia, shortness of breath, and hypertension were predictors of death in patients with confirmed COVID-19 [16]. Figure 2: The daily death cases from 2 March 2020 to 3 April 2022, in Jakarta. The death cases decreased until the end of 2021, then increased again in February 2022, related to the entry of the Omicron variant to Indonesia. According to the government, even though the Omicron variant has a high transmission rate, the effect on the hospital's BOR and the death rate is relatively small [15]. This is caused by vaccinations that have reached almost the entire population. Until 3 April 2022, Jakarta's COVID-19 vaccination has reached 123.7% for the first dose and 104.9% for the second dose from the number of vaccination targets [17]. Therefore, individuals who have been fully vaccinated and have received booster vaccines are permitted to engage in normal activities while wearing facial masks and cleaning their hands properly [15]. Treating COVID-19 as an endemic disease after two years into the pandemic is one of the goals of every country. Endemic disease refers to the constant presence of a disease or infectious agent within a given geographic area or population group. It may also refer to the usual prevalence of a given disease within such an area or group [18]. In other words, a disease will be endemic if its presence becomes stable in a particular area. This increase in positive cases was caused by the entry of the Omicron variant into Indonesia. On 15 December 2021, the Indonesian Ministry of Health found the first confirmed Omicron case in a patient [14]. Concerning the invasion of Omicron, the government of Indonesia implemented PPKM Level 3 in several provinces in Indonesia, including Jakarta [15]. According to Dr. [PERSON], a virologist at St George's, endemicity was written into the coronavirus [19]. This was the unavoidable result of a virus that spreads through the air for many. Others are using endemic to indicate COVID-19 is still around, but we no longer need to restrict our lives, according to Prof [PERSON], an epidemiologist at Imperial College London [19]. According to Prof [PERSON], the end of the COVID-19 pandemic is just around the corner in the UK [19]. Therefore, the same possibility could also happen in Jakarta, Indonesia. The restrictions on activities carried out to reduce contact to reduce the spread of COVID-19 also impact the economic sector [20]. The Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) of Jakarta in 2020 decreased by 2.4% from 2019 [21]. Nationwide, the Indonesian economy grew by minus 2.1 percent in 2020 while severely hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic [22]. Thus, appropriate policies are needed to improve economic conditions that have declined since the COVID-19 pandemic. Many countries are already moving to the endemic phase of COVID-19. Malaysia, one of the countries in the region of Indonesia, began treating COVID-19 as an endemic disease around the end of October 2021 [23]. Not only that, some countries no longer require people to wear masks. The Nordic countries (Denmark, Iceland, Finland, Norway, and Sweden), Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovenia), Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Ireland, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom are all mask-free [24].