## 3 Research Results
### Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of LICC and C Storage Under Multi-Scenario Simulations  
The natural development scenario mirrors the historical pattern, characterized by a modest increase in both forest area and built-up land, largely driven by the \"return farmland to forest\" policy. These changes are particularly evident in the peripheral areas of cities like Wudu and Dangchang, where significant alterations in carbon sequestration (CS) have occurred. Notably, grassland degradation is expected to continue, potentially leading to economic losses for livestock and a decline in biodiversity. As a result, the ecological benefits will be further weakened by 2050, and the cumulative CS will be 1.1 tons less than in 2020 (Figure 10). At the same time, with the passage of time, social and economic complexity is increasing, and how to balance the value of ecological investment and economic development has become a major challenge. What is more serious is that the limited space for agriculture is becoming increasingly apparent, and the potential risk of food crisis cannot be ignored. Figure 10: Changes in CS in the BRB under three scenarios: change trend for total CS under arable land protection scenario from 2000 to 2050 (**a**), change trend for total CS in 2000–2050 in an ecological protection scenario (**b**), change trend for total CS in 2000–2050 in a natural development scenario (**c**), and comparison of total CS in three different scenarios (**d**). In the ALP scenario, carbon sequestration (CS) showed fluctuations over time. By 2030, CS had decreased by 14.7 tons compared to 2020, but in 2040 and 2050, it saw slight increases of 1 tons and 0.6 tons, respectively. Notable changes in arable land area are particularly observed in regions like Dangchang and Wudu (Figure 11). As urbanization and industrialization progress, arable land is not consistently developed or occupied. When a reduction in arable land leads to decreased food production, the conversion of other land types, particularly those not dedicated to construction, becomes necessary to compensate for the lost agricultural area. This reflects the tradeoff between short-term economic benefits and long-term ecological sustainability in the ALP scenario. In this case, the priority protection of cultivated land may not be able to fully meet the needs of urban development, further highlighting the contradictions and challenges in land resource allocation. In contrast, ecological conservation scenarios offer a more promising solution for maintaining CS. Compared with 2020, CS in 2030, 2040, and 2050 will increase by 19.6 tons, 22.2 tones, and 16 tons, respectively (Figures 10 and 11). This suggests that regions with rich natural resources are better able to implement green development paths, thereby reducing potential environmental pressures. However, given that the region often faces natural disasters such as landslides and soil erosion, the management of limited resources and space urgently needs to be strengthened to ensure the effectiveness and sustainability of ecological protection measures. In the EP scenario, prioritizing the conservation of existing  
Figure 11: Spatial distribution of CS in the BRB in three scenarios. ALP-2030 **(a)**, ALP-2040 **(b)**, ALP-2050 **(c)**, EP-2030 **(d)**, EP-2040 **(e)**, EP-2050 **(f)**, ND-2030 **(g)**, ND-2040 **(h)**, ND-2030 **(i)**. **(A–C)** represent local locations and enlarged contrast plots. carbon sinks and promoting the conversion of arable land to woodland and grasslands not only significantly improves the overall carbon sequestration capacity, but also strengthens the resilience of ecosystems. This further highlights the key significance of achieving long-term sustainable development on the basis of balancing ecological protection with socio-economic development. The ND, ALP, and EP scenarios show significant differences and complex trade-offs in all aspects. The ND scenario is dominated by the natural development of urbanization and industrialization, emphasizing short-term economic growth.