# An Alternative Globalization Barometer for Investigating the Trend of Globalization
## 3 Results  
### Globalization Barometers and Trend Terms on World Average  
Drawing on the idea of the Global Trade Barometer of WTO [28], this paper compiles the Globalization Barometer with _de facto_ and _de jure_ dimensions. The steps are as follows: First, the HP filter is applied to the Globalization Index measured in Section 2, and the trend term is extracted; next, the index value is subtracted from the trend term to obtain the deviation term; finally, the deviation term is normalized and added by 100, and compared against the barometer standard interval. The standard barometer interval is set by taking 100 as the baseline, and the intervals (99, 101), (101, +\(\infty\)), and (\(-\infty\), 99) are defined as \"in trend\" (yellow), \"above trend\" (green), and \"below trend\" (red), respectively.  
Figure 2 shows the _de facto_ and _de jure_ Globalization Barometer, as well as the trend components. In terms of _de facto_ globalization, the trend term is generally upward. During the past two decades, two global events, i.e., the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, influenced its progress, as shown by the grey areas. The financial crisis in 2008 caused a significant dip in _de facto_ globalization. The _de facto_ Globalization Barometer soared to 101.58 on the eve of the 2008 crisis, and then fell to the bottom of 98.84 when the crisis started to spread, turning from \"above trend\" to \"below trend\". Since then, _de facto_ globalization resumed its positive development until the pandemic hit the world in 2020, when _de facto_ globalization suffered an even greater fluctuation. As shown in Figure 2b, a significant \"above trend\" could be observed in 2019, before a sharp drop to \"below trend\" in 2020, when the pandemic began to exert its negative influence on the world economy as well as other aspects of human lives. Moreover, the pandemic even caused the trend component to decrease. This is partly a reflection of the fragility and relative instability of globalization, where global events at the economic, social or political level could destabilize the level of _de facto_ globalization. Overall, however, a positive trend is evident in _de facto_ globalization.  
The _de jure_ globalization shows a relatively flat upward trend in general, which is also impacted by the 2008 crisis and the 2020 pandemic. The 2008 crisis had a lagging effect on the _de jure_ globalization. Since 2010, there has been a general slowdown in the growth of _de jure_ globalization, even if it remained positive until 2020. The _de jure_ Globalization Barometer fell from 101.86 (above trend) in 2008 to 98.71 (below trend) in 2011. From 2018 onwards, _de jure_ globalization remained at the previous level until 2020 when _de jure_ globalization dipped following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The trend component eventually fell, and the barometer dropped to 98.41 (below trend). The above results further illustrate the continuing negative impact of the crisis on _de jure_ globalization.  
Figure 3 shows the _de facto_ and _de jure_ Globalization Barometer for 2020. In 2020, the _de facto_ Globalization Barometer of 97.86 was \"below trend\". The _de jure_ Globalization Barometer was 98.41, also \"below trend\". The results show that the pandemic in 2020 has challenged the development of globalization in the world and has dealt a huge blow to the globalization process.