# Dynamics of Changes in Climate Zones and Building Energy Demand. A Case Study in Spain
## 3 Results and Discussion
### Analysis of the Dynamics of Changes in Energy Demand for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Scenarios  
In order to a analyze the effects that the observed climate dynamism will have on the energy demand of buildings, Figure 7 shows the average results of the estimated change in energy demand for heating and cooling, calculated based on the definition of the WCS and SCS indices of the 77 stations, for the typical building used for 2015-2018 and the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Besides, Table 5 shows the estimated energy demand for heating and cooling, for four significant stations, for the building type used for 2015-2018 and the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.  
In the RCP 4.5 scenario (Figure 7), by the year 2055, the energy demand of the 77 stations is expected to decrease by an average of 11.23 kWh/m\({}^{2}\) year compared to 2015-2018. Specifically, heating demand will decrease by an average of 16 kWh/m\({}^{2}\) year, with the most significant decreases observed in stations located in mountainous areas at 900 meters above sea level; this is due to the notable effect of the continental climate, which will see its meteorological conditions soften in winter due to the effects of climate change. Such is the case of station 73, located in Valladolid, with a reduction of 32 kWh/m\({}^{2}\) year. However, cooling demand will increase by an average of 4.8 kWh/m\({}^{2}\) year, compared to 2015-2018, in cities located in the southeast, characterized by a semi-arid climate; specifically, station 5, located in the city of Almeria with an increase in cooling energy demand by 2055 of 7.045 kWh/m\({}^{2}\) year compared to 2015-2018. However, due to this climate scenario's stabilizing nature between 2055 and 2085, no significant differences are observed between the average demand values for heating and cooling, with an average increase of only 0.8 kWh/m\({}^{2}\) year.  
Under the RCP 8.5 scenario (Figure 7), by the year 2055, heating and cooling energy demand for all seasons are expected to decrease by an average of 10 kWh/m\({}^{2}\) year compared to 2015-2018. Specifically, heating demand will decrease by an average of 15.4 kWh/m\({}^{2}\) year, highlighting station 17, located in the city of Castellon, where a high reduction value, estimated at 30 kWh/m\({}^{2}\) year, is foreseen. In contrast, cooling demand will increase by an average of 5.3 kW/m\({}^{2}\) year compared to 2015-2018. Station 76, located in Zaragoza, stands out in particular, with an increase in cooling energy demand by 2055 of 16.7 kWh/m\({}^{2}\) year compared to 2015-2018. It should be noted that, unlike the RCP 4.5 scenario, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, there are significant differences between 2055 and 2085. Thus, by 2085, the average heating energy demand will decrease by 8.2 kWh/m\({}^{2}\) year, while the cooling demand will increase by 8.7 kWh/m\({}^{2}\) year compared to 2055. This trend is localized in cities located in the southwestern, southern and Mediterranean coastal parts of the country. These results are explained by expanding the semi-arid climate that the south and southeast coast will undergo under this scenario, where summers will be hotter and drier, significantly increasing the energy demand of dwellings for cooling. This increase will also be affected by the additional thermal effect of the Mediterranean Sea's warming surface waters.