# A Study of Cellular Traffic Data Prediction by Kernel ELM with Parameter Optimization
## 2. Accident Description and Prediction Method  
### 2.1. Accident Description  
When network resources are limited, the overload of base stations caused by a sudden increase in cellular traffic demand could result in network accidents. These accidents often occur in public settings with changing traffic. Table 1 shows some network accidents caused by an increase in traffic demand in different settings and events in the Huainan area in the past two years. Table 1 only shows one network accident caused by increase in cellular traffic demand in shopping malls, commercial streets, railway stations, and tourist attractions. However, in the network operation, the reduction in user experience caused by an increase of flow in each setting is much more than once. Traffic prediction of public settings helps us understand the upcoming traffic peak in advance. Good network protection can effectively reduce accidents. When we know that the network is about to be congested, we will increase our capacity by carrying out steps to alleviate network load. 1. Based on user-focused areas and distribution of existing network base stations, check the load situation of surrounding sites and find the community occupied by user terminal frequency. 2. Inquire whether hardware configuration of the corresponding high-load community meets the requirements for capacity expansion. If so, carry out remote capacity expansion in the background; generally, the corresponding setting is added to the software. If not, on-site hardware expansion is required. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Setting**} & \multirow{2}{*}{**Time**} & \multirow{2}{*}{**Reasons**} & **A Network Failure (Caused by Congestion)** & \multirow{2}{*}{**Consequences (Number)**} \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{Shopping mall} & \multirow{2}{*}{2019.09.19} & Annual & Short-term passenger flow & About 1500 people surted \\  & & & & increased too much and \\  & & & & demand for network traffic \\  & & & & increased, resulting in \\  & & & & 4 GTD-LTE/FDD-LTE base & did not have normal \\  & & & & station equipment overload. \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{Commercial Street} & \multirow{4}{*}{2018.5.1} & \multirow{4}{*}{Labor Day} & The steep increase and & \multirow{4}{*}{} \\  & & & & gathering of people during the \\  & & & & holidays resulted in limited \\  & & & & resources of mobile 4G \\  & & & & network equipment and \\  & & & & overload of base stations. \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{Train station} & \multirow{4}{*}{2018.10.01} & \multirow{4}{*}{National Day} & The rapid increase in the flow & \multirow{4}{*}{} \\  & & & of people in specific areas led & About 1200 people surted \\  & & & to the limitation of mobile 4G & the internet at a reduced \\  & & & wireless resources and the & speed. \\ \hline \multirow{4}{*}{Bagong Mountain} & \multirow{4}{*}{2019.04.16} & \multirow{4}{*}{Bagong Hill} & During the temple fair, the & \multirow{4}{*}{} \\  & & & flow of people increased & \\ \cline{1-1}  & & & sharply, resulting in limited & \\ \cline{1-1}  & & & mobile 4G wireless resources & \\ \cline{1-1}  & & & and overloaded base stations. & dropped for 120 people. \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 1: Network accidents caused by increased traffic. After the main occupation cell is expanded to full-load configuration standard of hardware and software, it is necessary to pay attention to occupation of the base station in real time and adjust the load balance in real time. 4. If it is still under high load after full matching and balancing, the interoperation parameters between base stations needs to be changed to balance users to surrounding sites. The base stations with a light load in surrounding areas will bear the traffic load. After the evaluation, if existing network equipment cannot meet the scheduling needs, it is necessary to use network emergency support vehicle.