# Characterization and Modelling of Potential Seaborne Disasters, in the ANA Region
## 1 Introduction  
There is evidence that the lessons that could have been gained from major incidents have not always been learnt by the very same organizations, or even industries, who have experienced similar disasters in the past, as demonstrated by the multiple disasters that have occurred involving oil spills, nuclear power, or incidents involving cruise ships [1]. This same argument can be applied to some seaborne disasters and catastrophic incidents in the Arctic and North Atlantic (ANA) region, which have been analysed during a set ofworkshops carried out as part of the ARCSAR EU project [2] such as cruise ship fires, oil spills, radiological maritime emergencies, terrorist incidents, or vessel groundings. The Arctic Ocean is at the centre of the Arctic and Northern Atlantic region and is bordered to the south by the North Atlantic Ocean. The Arctic Ocean is bounded by eight different countries: Norway, Iceland, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Canada, United States, and Russia. The Atlantic Region stretches from the United Kingdom and Ireland down to the northern shores of Spain and Portugal, encompassing all of the Netherlands and parts of Germany, Denmark, Belgium, and France. Together, the Arctic and Northern Atlantic region (ANA) is characterised by the presence of economically important marine activities and infrastructure, sparse to high-density population areas, challenging marine conditions, inhospitable landscapes, diverse and often extreme climates, and ocean areas bordered by cliffs, fjords, and mountains which are difficult to access. The ANA region has particular challenges in terms of harsh cold climate, long distances, and lack of infrastructure [3], which make dealing with any incident a challenging task in this region. These conditions enhance the consequence of mistakes, thus making the adoption of lessons learned quintessential in order to avoid unnecessary loss of lives, potential negative effects to local communities, and damage to the environment. We argue that risk assessment in general and root cause analysis in particular can complement and enhance the uptake of lessons learned as it offers an easy-to-use tool that practitioners in the fields of Search and Rescue (SAR), marine environmental response (MER), and responders to other types of incidents can utilize. Such root cause analysis techniques have been applied in other domains and reported in the literature [1; 4]. We provide an example of the use of root cause analysis tools by applying them to one of the most significant case studies of oil spills, in terms of significance, monetary cost, environmental damage, and psychosocial repercussions in the ANA region, namely, the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound. This is a classical case that fits a typology defined by a set of SAR and MER practitioners in the ANA region as well as the literature on the field as one that could have the direct consequences for the parties involved, local communities, the wider society, and the environment. Despite being located south of the Arctic Circle, Prince William Sound experiences wind, ice, and Arctic weather conditions. These factors, along with the spill's impact on the Arctic environment, have led to this oil spill being widely regarded as an Arctic disaster. In this paper we focus on the classical case of the Exxon Valdez as way of demonstrating the use of a hybrid of root cause analysis techniques to promote utilization of such tools in investigation reports. Regarding choice of the case study, the authors had the option of either choosing a relatively recent or an older incident. On the one hand the recent ones tend to be more relevant and timelier but there are uncertainties about the completeness of the factual evidence as new evidence may appear later on.