## 4 Model Validation
### Case Study  
In order to demonstrate the practicality of the model developed in the paper, a specific case is selected as the background of the project for project resilience assessment. The name of the selected project is Claeys-Verhelst Premises, which is a commercial building. The expansion of the company premises of sanitary specialist Claeys-Verhelst, located in Oudenburg (Belgium), through the construction of a new three-floor building harboring a warehouse, office space, a small showroom, and recreational facilities for the employees. The start date of the project is 17 April 2016. The expected duration of the project is 442 days, and the expected cost is 3,027,133 \(\mathbf{\xi}\). The risk expectation for this type of project is 0.7, obtained through expert experience. BAC, PD, and LD of the project and the SPI value of the moment (SPI = earned value of completed work/planned work; assume that the work has already started at this moment and SPI = 1) are entered into the model constructed in this paper for forecasting. The information of the Claeys-Verhelst Premises project is shown in Table 8.  
Firstly, we input the relevant information of the project as input variables into the model constructed in this paper. The SPI(t2) = 0.3257 and SPI(t3) = 0.9616 of the project are obtained. Then, the project resilience is calculated as 0.943 according to Equation (3). The model constructed in this paper shows that the resilience of the project is less than 1, which indicates that the project's ability to cope with challenges is weak. It may be  
Figure 10: The project resilience of training sample.  
\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline \hline
**Project Name** & **BAC** & **PD** & **SPI(t3)** & **LD** & **SPI(t2)** & **SPI(t3)** & \(\mathbf{\varphi}\) \\ \hline Claeys-Verhelst Premises & 3,027,133 & 442 & 1 & 0.7 & 0.3257 & 0.9616 & 0.943 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table}
Table 8: The information of Claeys-Verhelst Premises project.  
difficult for the project to maintain the stability of its original plan or objectives in the face of external disturbances or changes, and it is prone to deviations or delays. It also reflects the project leader's inadequacy in risk management, failing to adequately identify, assess, and respond to potential risks and challenges. In order to ensure that the project is not delayed, in this case, the project leader can make use of tools such as project management software ([[https://www.projectmanagement.ugent.be](https://www.projectmanagement.ugent.be)]([https://www.projectmanagement.ugent.be](https://www.projectmanagement.ugent.be)), accessed on 13 August 2024). to track the progress of the project in real time, including the completion of tasks and the use of resources, when work has already started. Measures can also be taken to develop a flexible and adjustable project plan, improve teamwork and communication skills, and establish a rapid response and decision-making mechanism. The implementation of these strategies will help the project maintain stability, flexibility, and quick recovery in the face of various uncertainties, challenges, and risks. This will ensure that the project reaches its desired goals.