## Results and Analysis
### Evaluation of Policy Sustainability Prospect of the LGMs  
#### 4.2.1 Effectiveness Evaluation and Prospect Forecast of the GPP  
Since the implementation of the GPP, land desertification in the agro-pastoral ecotone showed a significant reversal trend, and the desertification area decreased obviously. The questionnaire results of the LGMs for the effectiveness evaluation of the GPP showed that 56.25% of the LGMs believed that the GPP in Yanchi County had achieved the expected effect in grassland vegetation cover and ecological restoration, but there were still 6.25% of the LGMs who believed the GPP had not achieved the desired results. The reason for this is that some areas have experienced some degree of degradation due to long-term grazing prohibition in the current stage.  
If the GPP continued to be implemented, 50% of the LGMs thought it would improve the grassland ecology in Yanchi County in the future, but 25% of the LGMs opposed it (Figure 8a). If the linkage between the arbitrariness factors was selectively and compulsorily severed by ecological policy, it would be difficult to achieve the expected results through a single, standardized and simplified,  
Figure 7: The radar chart of the local government managers (LGMs) perception degree and relative intensity. (**a**) indicate that the mean value of perception degree. (**b**) indicate that the relative perception intensity. The figures in the figure refers to the comprehensive value of \(PI\) and \(R_{PI}\) of each indicator. \(CPI\) is the comprehensive value of LGMs perception degree. \(CR_{PI}\) is the comprehensive value of relative perception intensity.  
linear governance approach. It is reasonable to explain that in the early and middle stages of the GPP, due to the decrease of external disturbances, it had been obviously improved, but new problems have appeared at the current stage, to the extent that the grassland ecology has degraded.  
However, if the GPP stopped, 68.75% of LGMs thought the grassland ecology would be worse, and the option of sure deterioration was 37.5% (Figure 8b). Since the GPP implementation, the number of herbivorous livestock in Yanchi County has increased from 410,321 in 2002 to 914,843 in 2011, more than double. The livestock density has increased from 68.24/km\({}^{2}\) in 2003 to 117.29/km\({}^{2}\). The number of herbivorous livestock is higher than 761,982, although it reduced obviously in the current stage of GPP. At present, the socio-ecological system of Yanchi grassland has not formed an effective governance mechanism to prevent the occurrence of a \"tragedy of the commons\". The sustainable alternative livelihoods of herdsmen and the rules of collective action and self-governance within the community, the social network, the supervision and the punishment mechanism are not mature. It is difficult to realize the goal of limiting livestock based on grassland carrying capacity caused by the imbalance of community resource endowment and the impact of economic benefits. If the GPP is lifted, the herdsmen would drive the sheep to grassland to reduce production costs against the background of the rising cost of pen feeding and the low eco-compensation. Hence, grassland ecology will face more severe challenges.