## 4 Results and Discussion
### Estimation of Water Demand between 2020 and 2029
#### 4.6.2 Tourist Water Demand  
Tourist water demand between 2020 and 2029 was estimated using the water consumption rate for a four-day stay and the number of tourists under normal and new normal conditions. Under normal conditions, the number of tourists varies from 16,534,377 people to 21,671,107 people, with an average of 18,828,364 tourists per year. Tourist water demand will increase from 18,861,284 m\({}^{3}\) in 2020 to 24,757,427 m\({}^{3}\) in 2029, with an average tourist water demand of 21,493,892 m\({}^{3}\) (Table 21). Conversely, the number of tourists under new normal conditions varies from 4,003,290 people to 21,671,107 people, with an average of 15,263,706 tourists per year. In addition, tourist water demand varies from 4,524,179 m\({}^{3}\) to 24,757,427 m\({}^{3}\), with an average tourist water demand of 17,417,294 m\({}^{3}\) (Table 22). Under new normal conditions, the tourist water demand will drop between 2020 and 2023 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it will increase from 2024 to 2029 when the COVID-19 pandemic is under control and normal conditions are re-established. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Year**} & \multicolumn{3}{c}{**Number of Tourists (People)**} & \multicolumn{3}{c}{**Tourist Water Demand (m\({}^{3}\))**} \\ \cline{2-7}  & **Tourist** & **Excursionist** & **Total** & **Tourist** & **Excursionist** & **Total** \\ \hline
2020 & 15,696,798 & 837,580 & 16,534,377 & 18,836,157 & 25,127 & 18,861,284 \\
2021 & 15,817,031 & 839,472 & 16,656,503 & 18,980,437 & 25,184 & 19,005,621 \\
2022 & 16,285,696 & 869,848 & 17,155,544 & 19,542,835 & 26,095 & 19,568,931 \\
2023 & 16,832,320 & 895,237 & 17,727,557 & 20,198,784 & 26,857 & 20,225,641 \\
2024 & 17,493,473 & 922,615 & 18,416,087 & 20,992,167 & 27,678 & 21,019,845 \\
2025 & 18,045,498 & 949,648 & 18,995,145 & 21,654,597 & 28,489 & 21,683,087 \\
2026 & 18,728,566 & 978,676 & 19,707,243 & 22,474,279 & 29,360 & 22,503,640 \\
2027 & 19,366,852 & 1,006,502 & 20,373,354 & 23,240,222 & 30,195 & 23,270,418 \\
2028 & 20,009,937 & 1,036,790 & 21,046,726 & 24,011,924 & 31,104 & 24,043,028 \\
2029 & 20,604,525 & 1,066,583 & 21,671,107 & 24,725,430 & 31,997 & 24,757,427 \\ \hline Average & 17,888,069 & 940,295 & 18,828,364 & 21,465,683 & 28,209 & 21,493,892 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular} Note: Tourist water demand was calculated based on an average length of stay (day) of four days (the average between 2015 and 2019) from the TAT Intelligence Center, Tourism Authority of Thailand (2019).  
\end{table} 
Table 21: The number of tourists and water demand between 2020 and 2029 under normal conditions. In addition, tourism growth under normal conditions shows a positive correlation with urban expansion in Phuket Island, with a high coefficient of determination (0.99) (Figure 14a). Tourism growth under new normal conditions is also positively correlated with urban expansion in Phuket Island, with a high coefficient of determination (0.89) (Figure 14b). These findings are in line with [PERSON] et al., who stated that urbanization, driven by either anthropogenic elements, such as population growth, or economic geography factors, contributes to the expansion of the extensive and intensive settlements [68]. Moreover, the increase in tourism led to the high resource demand of Phuket Island. Notably, water is a primary resource in many activities of daily life. A small island such as Phuket Island has limited water supply storage in summer, and water demand is high due to the high tourism in Phuket Island during this season. These findings agree with the results of [PERSON] et al., who found that increasing tourist flows affect local economies and the lives of residents due to the construction of tourist facilities such as large hotels and huge recreational and commercial areas. This construction leads to the degradation of natural resources [69], for example, the littering of waste resulting from tourist traffic and decreased water resources due to excessive demand [70].