## 5 Long- and Short-Term Features of the Simulated Seismicity  
A detailed analysis of the simulated 100,000 years catalog allows the detection of interesting spatiotemporal features showing similarities with analog features existing in the observations. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c} \hline \hline
**Free Parameters** & **S–R = 0.1** & **S–R = 0.2** & **S–R = 0.3** \\ \hline A–R = 2 & 1.83 \(\pm\) 0.11 & 1.77 \(\pm\) 0.13 & 1.56 \(\pm\) 0.11 \\ \hline A–R = 5 & 2.10 \(\pm\) 0.20 & 1.94 \(\pm\) 0.21 & 1.88 \(\pm\) 0.18 \\ \hline A–R = 10 & 2.00 \(\pm\) 0.18 & 2.13 \(\pm\) 0.24 & 1.96 \(\pm\) 0.23 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 4: Ratio between total number of multiplets in original 100,000 years simulated catalogs and average of respective randomized catalogs. Figure 6: Representation of sequences with multiple mainshocks in 100,000 years simulated catalog, with \(M_{w}\geq 5.0\). Colored lines show multiple mainshocks recognized by algorithm described in text, with colors indicating respective number of earthquakes for each of them (see histogram in log scale in the inset). \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c} \hline \hline
**Seismic Features** & **CPTI15** & **Simulation** \\ \hline Number of events of \(M\geq 5.0\) per year & 0.573 & 0.138 \\ \hline Seismic moment released per year (Nm) & \(0.365\cdot 10^{17}\) & \(0.518\cdot 10^{17}\) \\ \hline Number of multiplets in 370 years & 8 & 0.65 \(\pm\) 0.05 \\ \hline Average number of multiplets in 370 years in the randomized catalogs & 4.63 \(\pm\) 1.88 & 0.32 \(\pm\) 0.03 \\ \hline Average ratio of the number of multiplets between the original and randomized catalogs & 2.17 \(\pm\) 1.37 & 2.13 \(\pm\) 0.24 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 5: A comparison of seismic features detected in CPTI15 1650–2020 catalog and 100,000 years simulated catalog (S–R = 0.2 and A–R = 10) for study area. The following stacking procedure was adopted to highlight if systematic and coherent time features occur before or after \"strong\" earthquakes: (1) We take into account earthquakes of the simulated catalog with a magnitude greater than 5.2; (2) for each of those events, occurring at time \(t_{i}\), a time interval around it (\(t_{i}-\Delta t,t_{i}+\Delta t\)) is considered and subgroups of events falling inside that interval and with an epicentral distance less than \(\Delta r\) are added to a stacking list. Their occurrence times are stored as counted relative to \(t_{i}\), i.e, with times ranging from \(-\Delta t\) to \(+\Delta t\); (3) Once the stacking list was filled with all subgroups times, the resulting (\(-\Delta t\), \(\Delta t\)) interval is divided into a proper number of bins and events occurrences for any of the bins are counted and reported in the scatter plots. Long-term seismicity patterns before and after a mainshock are shown in Figure 7. This figure shows the stacked number of \(M_{w}\geq 4.2\) earthquakes that preceded and followed an \(M_{w}\geq 5.2\) earthquake within an epicentral distance of 20 km. Here, we may note an acceleration of seismic activity some centuries before a mainshock, a modest quiescence starting 50 years before the mainshock and a strong aftershock occurrence in the following five years. After this aftershock phase, a trend of long-term quiescence recovering in some centuries is noted. In Figure S2 of the Supplementary Material we report the same kind of plots for all the nine combinations of free parameters, showing the same trends, with minor variations. As far as the short-term features are concerned, a clear foreshock and aftershock pattern of the duration of some weeks before and after a magnitude \(M_{w}\geq 5.2\) event is visible in the stacking plot of Figure 8a. With the same time scale, Figure 8b shows a clear trend of b-value decreasing before a mainshock of \(M_{w}\geq 5.2\) and recovering to the average value just after it.