## 4 Case Study Analysis
### Optimization Results of the Power Sector's \"Dual Carbon\" Path
From the perspective of the carbon emission reduction effect supported by CCUS technology, as the commercial application scale of CCUS technology expands in the medium to long term, the carbon emissions of the power industry rapidly decrease. As shown in Figure 6, the annual carbon emissions are projected to drop by 1.02 hundred million tons from 2030 to 2040, and by 2.74 hundred million tons from 2040 to 2050, facilitating deep carbon emission reductions in the power industry. In the long term, facing security constraints such as power balance and electricity supply under extreme scenarios, traditional coal and gas power still have a certain installation, electricity generation, and carbon emission space. The \"biomass power generation + CCUS\" technology route, an important negative-carbon approach for the power system, will help achieve the internal carbon neutrality goal of the power industry. The carbon emission structure of the power industry in 2060 is shown in Table 5.  
Figure 4: Trend of national energy storage installation scale from 2020 to 2060. * (3) Hydrogen Energy Technology  
In the medium to long term, green electricity in hydrogen production will help meet the desired hydrogen consumption demand in industries such as transportation, construction,  
Figure 5: Structural change in coal-fired power CCUS retrofitting scale. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c} \hline \hline  & **Coal Power** & **Gas Power** & **Biomass Power Generation** \\ \hline Installed capacity (billion kilowatts) & 4 & 4 & 2 \\ CCUS retrofitting (billion kilowatts) & 1.5 & 1.2 & 0.8 \\ Net emissions (billion tons) & 2.1 & 1.3 & \(-3.4\) \\ CCUS capture (billion tons) & 3.2 & 1.2 & 3.4 \\ Fuel consumption (billion tons of standard coal) & 1.8 & 1.7 & 2.8 \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 5: Composition of carbon emissions and capture in the power sector in 2060. Figure 6: Carbon emissions and absorption in the power sector from 2020 to 2060.  
and manufacturing. Hydrogen production power stations, equipped with hydrogen storage devices and hydrogen fuel cells, will play a flexible regulatory role in daily peak shaving, flexible ramping, peak load supply, and even cross-day/week/month/season energy balance. They will promote the consumption of new energy across systems. As shown in Table 6, it is calculated that in 2030, the rated capacity of the electrolytic hydrogen load will be about 9 million kilowatts, and in 2060, the electrolytic hydrogen load, hydrogen storage capacity, and hydrogen fuel cell installation will be 600 million kilowatts, 2.9 million tons, and 40 million kilowatts, respectively. Analysis of the Impact of Key Low-Carbon Technology Breakthroughs on China's Power Sector's \"Dual Carbon\" Path  
(1) New Energy Storage Technology  
Under the \"dual carbon\" goal, \"new energy + energy storage\" and \"coal power + CCUS\" are two feasible competitive technological routes. In particular, the breakthrough of long-duration energy storage technology and its deployment scale will have a profound impact on the power sector's \"dual carbon\" path. In the base scenario (without considering the deployment of cross-season long-duration energy storage systems), it is assumed that cross-seasonal energy storage technology will achieve a breakthrough and begin commercial deployment in 2030. As shown in Figure 7, Quantitative calculations show the following: compared to the base scenario, the installation scale of new energy in the medium to long term is significantly increased, with a 380-million-kilowatt increase in new energy installation in 2060, and a 62-million-kilowatt-hour increase in electricity generation. The pace of coal power's exit is accelerated, with a reduction of 38 million kilowatts in the installation scale of \"coal power + CCUS\" in 2060, and a reduction of 96 million tons in carbon capture. (2) CCUS Technology  
China has high potential for retrofitting coal power with CCUS technology, and the economic viability of this technology is expected to significantly improve after 2035.