# Quantifying the Occurrence of Multi-Hazards Due to Climate Change
## 3 Results and Discussion
### Maximum Temperature  
Figure 3a shows the probability of the occurrence of TX exceeding the threshold value (i.e., the probability of exceedance) of 35 \({}^{\circ}\)C during the summer season of the historical period of 1980-2004. Figure 3b-e depict the differences in the probability of exceedance \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline \hline \multirow{2}{*}{**Variables**} & \multicolumn{6}{c}{**Likelihood Categories**} \\ \cline{2-7}  & Yes Love & Low & Medium & High & Very High & \\ \hline Daily Minimum & 0\(<\) & 0–(2) & (\(-\)2)–(\(-\)5) & **(\(-\)5)–(\(-\)10)** & **(\(-\)10)–(\(-\)15)** & **\textless(\(-\)15)** \\ Temperature [\({}^{\circ}\)C] & \textless{}30 & 30–33 & 33–35 & **35–39** & **39–42** & **\textgreater{}42** \\ \hline Daily Maximum & \textless{}2.5 & 2.5–7.6 & 7.6–10.0 & **10–50** & **50–100** & **\textgreater{}100** \\ Precipitation rate [mm/h] & \textless{}2.5 & 2.5–12.7 & 12.7–25.4 & **25.4–76.2** & **76.2–127** & **\textgreater{}127** \\ \hline Daily Maximum wind & \textless{}2.5 & 2.5–12.7 & 12.7–25.4 & **25.4–76.2** & **76.2–127** & **\textgreater{}127** \\ \hline Daily Maximum wind & \textless{}3 & 3–12 & 12–15 & **15–20** & **20–30** & **\textgreater{}30** \\ speed value [m/s] & & & & & & \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 2: Likelihood categories and threshold values for maximum and minimum temperature, maximum precipitation rate, maximum snow rate and maximum wind speed. In bold, the threshold values to which the probability of occurrence was applied in the current study. Figure 2: (**a**) EC–Earth–WRF topography of the simulated domain of Greece with horizontal resolution (5 \(\times\) 5 km\({}^{2}\)). (**b**) Highlighted regions of the country of particular interest for discussion. between the future projections and the historical values (i.e., future-historical) for both RCPs and the studied periods. During the historical period, we may deduce that the majority of areas show low probabilities of exceedance below 2.5% (Figure 3a). On the other hand, the highest occurrence of maximum temperature values with the probability of exceedance above 10% is seen in the plains of the regions of Thessaly, central Macedonia, Peloponnese, the western mainland, the eastern Aegean islands and southern Crete, which are well known as summer hot-spot areas [54]. Overall, in the near future, more areas compared to the historical period were found to be exposed to extreme TX values (Figure 3b,c). In addition, it appears that the probability increase in hot-spot areas is higher in RCP4.5, with these values exceeding 3%. The  
Figure 3: (**a**) Spatial distribution of probability of TX exceedance above 35 \({}^{\circ}\)C calculated using EC–Earth–WRF downscaled data for the historical summer period 1980–2004. Differences (future-historical) in the probability of TX exceedance for: (**b**) RCP4.5 in near future (2025–2049), (**c**) RCP8.5 in near future (2025–2049), (**d**) RCP4.5 in far future (2075–2099) and (**e**) RCP8.5 in far future (2075–2099). differences in the referenced areas become much larger, exceeding 10%, and even extend spatially into the far future and more profoundly in RCP8.5 (Figure 3d,e). In fact, the probability of exceedance according to RCP8.5 in the far future increases not only in the plains areas with low topographic heights but also in areas with heights in the range of 500 to 1000 m (Figure 3e). This could be considered an important change predicted by the worst-case emissions scenario that would cause adverse conditions near the end of the century. Nevertheless, in the near future, insignificant changes are expected over the high mountainous regions according to both RCPs concerning the historical period (Figure 3b,c).