# Spatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya  
[PERSON]  
1 Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (G.W. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Y.N. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Z.Z. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Y.H.) [PERSON]  
1 Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (G.W. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Y.N. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Z.Z. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Y.H.) [PERSON]  
1 Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (G.W. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Y.N. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Z.Z. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Y.H.) [PERSON]  
1 Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (G.W. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Y.N. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Z.Z. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Y.H.) [PERSON]  
1 Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (G.W. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Y.N. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Z.Z. ); [EMAIL_ADDRESS] (Y.H.) [PERSON]  
3 Department of Geomatic Engineering and Geospatial Information Systems, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, P.O. Box 62000, Nairobi 00200, Kenya; [EMAIL_ADDRESS]  
[PERSON]  
5 International Water Research Institute, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, Ben Guert 43150, Morocco; [EMAIL_ADDRESS]  
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5 Correspondence: [EMAIL_ADDRESS]; Tel: +86-010-6485-8122  
East Africa (EA), both climatic variability (temperature extremes, altered biomass cover and precipitation concentration) and human-related activities (land use and control practices) have been the core drivers of soil loss increments in recent years, currently approximated at 4.0 Bt yr\({}^{-1}\)[9; 10; 11; 14; 16; 17; 18; 19]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2014 report [20] and recent studies projected a high 'likelihood of enhanced rainfall' in EA due to increases in the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) [12; 21; 22]. Since almost 75% of soil erosion variation is attributed to rainfall erosivity and the terrain's slope gradient [23], the projected precipitation over EA heightens the potential level of soil loss in this tropical region [17; 24]. It is thus increasingly necessary to quantify climate-driven soil erosion rates in order to formulate appropriate adaptation and conservation measures. The exacerbation of soil erosion due to climatic changes has profound implications on the natural environment, including reduced soil nutrients and organic matter, land degradation, ecosystems deterioration, polluting water quality and sedimentation [2; 25; 26; 27]. In Kenya, approximately 61.4% of the total land mass is under severe land degradation [28; 29; 30], while the average annual soil loss rate for all croplands (mostly in highland areas with high annual precipitation) was recently estimated at 26 t ha\({}^{-1}\) yr\({}^{-1}\)[14]. Thus, cropland areas are incurring agricultural productivity and ecosystem services losses, as they have surpassed the average annual soil loss threshold for tropical areas (11 t ha\({}^{-1}\) yr\({}^{-1}\)), as indicated by references [7; 31]. Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) that occupy about 84% [29; 32] of the total area are highly vulnerable to food insecurity due to high evapotranspiration rates, prolonged droughts and highly erodible soils coupled with torrential rainstorms. These ASALs form a vital ecosystem, as they support over 30% of Kenya's population, 70% of the total national livestock and over 65% of natural wildlife [6; 33; 34]. Kenya is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate variability [12; 13; 27]. In the recent past, the country and the Greater Horn of Africa at large recorded extreme climatic events, including the El-Nino-La-Nina phenomena that exposed it to drought, floods, landslides and habitat destruction [27; 35; 36].