## 1 Introduction
### Reviewed Literature
Additionally, few studies have explored the role of SES in combination with other academic indicators, such as AP scores or credit accumulation. This study addresses these gaps by examining how socioeconomic background interacts with academic preparedness to shape students' performance trajectories. Student progression rates are key indicators of academic success and retention, reflecting how well students can navigate university courses. Ref. [24] found a positive relationship between GPA, science GPA, and progression in graduate education. Such relationships highlight that early academic success is a foundation for continued achievement, suggesting that monitoring students' GPA and credit accumulation could provide insights into their future academic trajectories. In nursing education, ref. [25] explored the relationship between progression examination scores and academic success in capstone courses. The results showed that higher progression scores were associated with better academic outcomes, implying that formative assessments could serve as tools for predicting student success in later stages of their academic programmes. This approach can be applied to Actuarial Science, where a strong foundation in earlier mathematics courses may predict success in more advanced topics. Ref. [26] emphasised the critical role of remedial support in improving student progression, particularly during the first year. Their findings showed that students who participated in remedial programmes exhibited improved academic performance and lower dropout rates. This points to the importance of addressing gaps early in foundational knowledge, which could benefit students in challenging quantitative programmes like Actuarial Science. While previous research has highlighted the importance of progression examinations and remedial interventions, limited studies have applied these insights to actuarial programmes. There is a need to investigate how progression rates within specific courses impact long-term academic trajectories and how early identification of struggling students can help tailor support mechanisms to improve retention and completion rates. Variability in academic outcomes can occur due to differences in programme structures, instructional quality, and the characteristics of student cohorts. Ref. [27] examined graduation rates across institutions and found that these rates were more influenced by students' entering characteristics and stable institutional factors than by variables that institutions could directly control, such as expenditures. Their results show that while institutional policies and investments matter, student-level factors remain more critical in predicting outcomes. In a multi-level analysis, [PERSON]. [28] explored the relationship between student evaluations of teaching (SET) and academic achievement. The findings indicated that prior academic performance was a more consistent predictor of outcomes than SET scores, which showed variability across the class and individual levels. This suggests that academic success may be more closely tied to students' foundational knowledge and learning strategies than perceived teaching quality. [PERSON]. [29] focused on community college transfers, revealing that larger institutions and proximity to public universities positively affected student outcomes, while university size was associated with lower first-year grades and persistence. These findings highlight the importance of contextual factors, such as institutional size and support structures, in shaping academic trajectories. There is a lack of research examining the variability in academic outcomes across different modules within a single programme, particularly in Actuarial Science. Additionally, few studies have considered how individual-level characteristics interact with module-level factors to influence academic trajectories. This study aims to fill this gap by using Bayesian hierarchical growth curve modelling to assess the variability in student performance across modules and over time.