# The Spatiotemporal Variability of Temperature and Precipitation Over the Upper Indus Basin:
## 3 Results
### Station-Averaged Temperature Trends  
This section examines the extent to which WRF was accurate in reproducing the spatio-temporal variability of temperature in the three domains. There were only ten stations' data available for the 10 year time period (i.e., 2001 through 20110). The WRF output was compared with the station data by performing a lapse rate correction to adjust vertically from the WRF grid point elevation to the station elevation, as detailed below (Figure 3). For all three domains, WRF underpredicted the average annual and seasonal temperatures in all seasons. WRF showed a positive correlation with the station data (Table 5) in all seasons. However, most of these trends for temperature were not statistically significant. The important feature was how the simulated temperature and bias changed as the resolution increased. The results showed that RMSE and mean bias were noticeably changed from d01 to d03 in all seasons. This showed that WRF tended to underestimate the 2 m air temperature in d01 (annual mean bias of \(-\)7.7 \({}^{\circ}\)C), d02 (annual mean bias of \(-\)3.4 \({}^{\circ}\)C), and d03 (annual mean bias of \(-\)0.24 \({}^{\circ}\)C), respectively. Figure 4 shows the change in the mean lapse rate with altitude in all three domains. The average lapse rate for d01, d02, and d03 across the simulated period was estimated to be \(-\)6.9167, \(-\)6.7863, and \(-\)6.8111\({}^{\circ}\)C/km, respectively. These lapse rates were used to interpolate the simulated temperature time series vertically to the actual heights of the stations. For each station, the difference between the station height and WRF height was computed, multiplied by the average lapse rate, and added to the simulated temperature values (Table 6). The station-wise comparison of the mean bias (Table 4) showed that most of the temperature simulations were greatly improved from d01 to d03 at all stations. The results showed that Astore, Chillas, Gilgit, and Skardu stations had the lowest bias in d03. However, Bunji, Chitral, and Gupis had the highest bias in d03. \begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{c c c c c c c} \hline \hline  & \multicolumn{3}{c}{**PBIAS**} & \multicolumn{3}{c}{**Mean Bias (\({}^{\circ}\)C)**} \\ \hline
**Station** & **d01** & **d02** & **d03** & **d01** & **d02** & **d03** \\ \hline Astore & 135 & 54 & 42 & \(-\)3.4 & \(-\)1.5 & 0.76 \\ Bunji & 329 & 47 & \(-\)3.5 & \(-\)9.8 & \(-\)2.6 & 4.7 \\ Chillas & 213 & 19 & 24 & \(-\)13.6 & \(-\)4.0 & \(-\)0.2 \\ Chitral & 111 & 27 & \(-\)3 & \(-\)12.8 & \(-\)6.8 & \(-\)3.7 \\ Gilgit & 447 & 141 & 42 & \(-\)12.2 & \(-\)7.1 & 0.4 \\ Gupis & 257 & 103 & 184 & \(-\)14.9 & \(-\)11.9 & \(-\)14.0 \\ Hunza & 876 & 409 & 132 & - & - & - \\ Skardu & 185 & \(-\)4 & \(-\)10 & \(-\)12.4 & \(-\)3.7 & 0.6 \\ Khunjerab & 350 & 509 & 251 & \(-\)1.3 & \(-\)3.4 & \(-\)2.6 \\ Rama & 56 & 1 & 12 & \(-\)2.6 & \(-\)0.8 & 1.6 \\ Rattu & 137 & 33 & 18 & \(-\)6.9 & \(-\)3.7 & \(-\)1.7 \\ Ushkore & 162 & 201 & 123 & - & - & - \\ Yasin & 116 & 9 & 34 & - & - & - \\ Zirat & 521 & 177 & 32 & - & - & - \\ Naltar & 56 & \(-\)28 & 14 & - & - & - \\ Ganji & 315 & 82 & 71 & - & - & - \\ Daggar & \(-\)49 & \(-\)33 & \(-\)19 & - & - & - \\ Kachura & 510 & 245 & 157 & - & - & - \\ Kandia & 531 & 326 & 239 & - & - & - \\ Karimabad & 1967 & 725 & 536 & - & - & - \\ Phulra & \(-\)10 & 9 & 13 & - & - & - \\ Yugo & 783 & 280 & 213 & - & - & - \\ Besham Qila & 9 & \(-\)0.5 & \(-\)13 & - & - & - \\ \hline \hline \end{tabular}
\end{table} 
Table 4: PBIAS of precipitation and mean bias (\({}^{\circ}\)C) of T2 after lapse rate correction between WRF and stations in d01, d02, and d03 at an annual time scale. Figure 4: Lapse rate between T2 (Kelvin) and height (m) in d01 (**a**), d02 (**b**), and d03 (**c**). Figure 3: Time series comparisons of temperature (T2) between WRF (red) and the mean of stations (“Observed”; blue) in d01 (left column), d02 (middle column), and d03 (right column) with lapse rate correction.