Swain Paul: Debate on Prime Minister’s Statement 
Swain Paul: Debate on Prime Minister’s Statement 
[Volume:629;Page:1164] 
Hon PAUL SWAIN (Labour—Rimutaka) 
: 
 We could not have a more interesting contrast between the parties in Parliament than in that demonstrated in what we have been hearing over the last little while. There is the Labour-led Government which won the election for the third consecutive term back on track and talking about the key issues that New Zealanders want to talk about. It is talking about the economy and economic transformation and making sure the economy is performing to provide the services that New Zealanders want. It is talking about the importance of families young and old being able to receive the services that come from a thriving economy and the importance of our being able to continue with the development of our unique national identity. 
We can contrast that with the strange odd and funny goings-on within the National Party. The more we hear about the leadership of the National Party the more it sounds like another episode of  
Desperate Housewives 
. It sounds exactly like that. When we see another episode of  
Desperate Housewives 
 what we see is the leader of the National Party having constantly to tell everyone that he is the leader of the National Party when he and everybody else knows that he is not really. There is the first desperate housewife. 
Then we have the second one who is the party’s deputy leader. Gerry Brownlee wants to be the leader so he spends a lot of his time undermining one of the serious candidates John Key. So the deputy leader Gerry Brownlee wants to be the leader and he sees his only hope is to undermine and torpedo the serious contender John Key. 
There is John Key himself. He is the party’s finance spokesperson. He wants to be the leader he says but not just yet. We in Parliament know that “not just yet” is the code for “I haven’t got the numbers yet.” That is what that phrase means. 
Then of course there is the previous leader Bill English who wants to be the leader again. There is another desperate housewife. He wants to be the leader although he has already had a go and they threw him out. Who threw him out and who rolled him? It was the other desperate housewife called Don Brash. 
There was another desperate housewife: the justice spokesperson called Simon Power. He was once picked in the media as a future leader. That is usually the kiss of death in this place. Being picked by the media as a future leader by and large means that one never makes it to have that happen. Of course that desperate housewife can see that his opportunities are slowly slipping away. 
They are all desperate. They are all dateless all fighting and all bitter and the back bench of course is totally and utterly confused by it all. Most of those back-benchers come in here wanting to do their bit for their electorates and find that they are totally and utterly embroiled in leadership shenanigans and goings-on that make  
Desperate Housewives  
look like a very very poor soap. And of course the important thing those members will be asked very very shortly—and there are two of them over there—is which horse they will be on because the horse they are on will determine their personal future in this Parliament. 
Will they stay loyal to Don Brash? I heard Nick Smith say that he would bet a good bottle of Marlborough wine that Don Brash will be the leader going into the next election. Well there would not be too many people willing to put bottles of wine on that and I wonder how many of those back-bench MPs will be saying that yes they are all with Don this time. Will they be with John Key and when will he make his move? Will they be with Gerry Brownlee? What about Simon Power and Bill English? And of course some other horse could come through the middle. 
I say to back-bench National Party members that their time is coming. They will have to choose and that back bench will not be the same again because there will be splits and divisions. There will be people who supported one candidate and then said they should have supported the other and that will go on for 3 years—mark my words. A party cannot survive and say it is a credible party when just a summary of the headlines says otherwise. I will run through just a few of those headlines: “Don Brash the bouncy kangaroo” “Are Don Brash’s days numbered?” “Top job still a worry for Nats” “Gloomy Brash at odds with analysts” “Brash on a hiding to nothing” “ ‘Stop gossiping’ MPs told” “Dr Brash will not be Prime Minister” “Don’t believe Dr Doom” “Brash demands Nats’ loyalty” “Brash determined to keep his job” and “National tries to end internal rifts”. A leader cannot go around the country and tell people his party is a serious Opposition party ready for Government when he cannot even govern his own party. That is one of the fundamental laws in this place: no party has ever ever contended an election seriously when it cannot get its own house in order. That message goes back over time. 
Let us play a little game called “Spot the Difference”. We sometimes see this in cartoons in papers and we are asked what the difference is between two pictures. In April 2003 Dr Don Brash said: “Bill English has my full support.” In February 2006 John Key said this about Dr Brash: “I have very publicly on dozens of occasions outlined my unconditional support for him. I’ve actively worked hard and will continue to work hard to ensure that he is a very successful leader.” Again what about April 2003 in our game “Spot the Difference”? Dr Brash said: “There’s been nothing which you would call a coherent or organised plot”. Then in October 2005 John Key said: “There is no grand master plan behind the scenes like we go after him after six months”. That is “Spot the Difference” No. 2. There has been a “Spot the Difference” No. 3. In May 2003 Dr Brash said: “I was at no point aiming at leadership when I came into politics.” That is what he said. What did John Key say in October 2005? He said: “I have no intention of challenging Don”. 
We could play this game all afternoon if we had the time. Regrettably I do not. All I am saying is that no party can be serious. Jane Clifton summarised it absolutely beautifully by saying that Dr Brash is in short an old dog who has not learnt the requisite new tricks of politics. That is true; he has not and he will not. That is why he will not be around for long. Nobody believes that he will be the leader going into the next election. 
While the National Party will be totally consumed for the next 3 years by its leadership and its leadership struggles—and every week the back bench will be drawn more and more into those—the Labour-led Government will be able to get out and promote the key issues that New Zealanders want to hear. They do not want to hear constant arguments about the National Party leadership. They are bored with that. What they want to hear is what the policies are that will affect them. We did not hear one policy from Dr Brash yesterday. From the Labour leader we heard three key issues: economic transformation the importance of families young and old and the importance of building on our national identity. That is what New Zealanders want to hear about. They want to hear about the real issues. They do not want to hear about all the leadership shenanigans going on. The prediction is that until the National Party resolves its leadership problems and squabbles and until it gets the hang of that it does not deserve the right even to contend the election in 2008.