8. Question No. 8—Economic DevelopmentHon PAUL GOLDSMITH (National) to the Minister for Economic DevelopmentQuestion No. 8—Economic Development8. Hon PAUL GOLDSMITH (National) to the Minister for Economic Development: Does he still stand by his statement to the Economic Development Science and Innovation Committee that business confidence surveys are junk"?Hon DAVID PARKER (Minister for Economic Development): No because the member is misquoting me. I was referring to the correlation of the ANZ Business Outlook survey to GDP. The ANZ business confidence headline measure is a poor predictor of economic growth. I stand by that view because the survey has just a 20 percent correlation with economic growth since 2000—that's close to two decades of data. Other data with greater merit for forecasting economic growth include consumer confidence and employee confidence and I was even told on the way to the House today that the number of points conceded by the Canterbury Crusaders in each season in Super Rugby since 1996 has a stronger correlation to economic growth than the ANZ survey.Hon Paul Goldsmith: I seek leave to table a document which is a transcript of the Estimates hearing—Mr SPEAKER: So is the member seeking to—now I just want to—is it a corrected transcript?Hon Paul Goldsmith: It's uncorrected this one.Mr SPEAKER: All right. Is there any objection to that document which would normally be available when the committee reports being available now? There appears to be none.Document by leave laid on the Table of the House.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Does he think the opinions of business leaders matter?Hon DAVID PARKER: Yes. And for example I share the concern of some businesses about rising protectionism. It's why we're pursuing an ambitious trade agenda to lift exports and export growth but I would note that the problem with using confidence surveys rather than real economic data is that some of the surveys significantly understate growth prospects under Labour-led Governments while overstating growth prospects under National Governments. That is a proven fact not an opinion.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Is he saying that the opinions of business leaders as expressed in business confidence surveys are junk—exactly what he did say—or they matter; which is it?Hon DAVID PARKER: I said that the particular measure that I spoke of which was the ANZ one that I referred to in the first answer to the primary question was junk because it is junk as far as it is to be seen as a predictor of economic growth which is what the member presents it as.Rt Hon Winston Peters: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. I'm asking you to advise us as to what the member should do who is told by another member Mr Goldsmith that he wishes to table a document believing that he's going to prove or otherwise that the Minister did make the statement and when it's consented to which we have done then doesn't use the transcript that he has from the select committee but carries on as before. Mr Parker said "I didn't say that." and when we consented to him to table that document we either want to hear the proof that he was right or that he was wrong.Mr SPEAKER: The member has until midnight—or the end of the sitting time at least today to table the document. Mr Parker did not indicate that he did not use that word. [Interruption] Mr Parker did not indicate that he did not use that word. He indicated that the circumstances in which it was used differed from the way that had been alleged.Hon Paul Goldsmith: I seek leave of the House to read the transcript.Mr SPEAKER: No.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Does he interpret the Minister of Finance's statement this morning on Radio New Zealand "I take all business surveys seriously" as a rebuke or as a belated effort to repair the Government's relationships with business after his "junk" comments?Hon DAVID PARKER: No I don't. I listened to that interview and I thought the Minister of Finance handled it very well and made the points—not that he needed my affirmation but he made similar points to those which I've already made.Tamati Coffey: What correlation is there between increased confidence in the ANZ Business Outlook survey and exports declining as a percentage of GDP?Hon DAVID PARKER: It's interesting to note the correlation between increasing confidence in the ANZ business confidence survey and falling exports as a percentage of GDP under the last Government. Despite setting a target of raising exports from 30 percent to 40 percent of GDP the last Government let exports fall to 27 percent—Mr SPEAKER: The member will resume his seat. This is in exactly the area that we've discussed with the Acting Prime Minister recently and I'm going to protect him the way that I've protected other Ministers.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Does he rate as junk the ANZ's conclusion this morning regarding the fall in job ads by 1.2 percent over the quarter that "Recent deterioration in business expectations of activity and hiring intentions appear to be flowing through into job ads."?Hon DAVID PARKER: As the Minister of Finance just brought to my attention they're up year on year and I also note that we've got low unemployment we've got dropping unemployment we've got economic growth we've got a Budget surplus and we've got a report from the IMF that says that the prospects are very good. I suggest that the member stop trying to talk down the economy.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Does he agree with the Acting Prime Minister's comments today in a Politik article in relation to business confidence "We said on the night of going into coalition with Labour that there was going to be a possible blip on the horizon because [of] all those years of slow growth but [it's] getting better … It's almost inevitable. You can see it in the Bible for goodness sake."—[Interruption]Mr SPEAKER: No—order! Sorry I think the technicians thought the member had finished. So the member can continue from after the quote but get to the end of the question.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Yes—and if so does he have any insight into how the Bible can explain the current low levels of business confidence?Hon David Parker: Whilst I went to a youth group as a child I am an atheist. Therefore I don't pretend to be a current expert on the Bible. But in respect of the sentiments other than those biblical I absolutely agree with him."