2. Economy—Growth Labour Productivity GDP and CommentaryRt Hon WINSTON PETERS (Leader—NZ First) to the Minister of FinanceEconomy—Growth Labour Productivity GDP and Commentary2. Rt Hon WINSTON PETERS (Leader—NZ First) to the Minister of Finance: Will he tell New Zealanders the true state of this country's economy; if not why not?Hon STEVEN JOYCE (Minister of Finance): Yes; and for the member's benefit I regularly inform New Zealanders about the true state of the economy including as recently as last evening in Christchurch then this morning in Christchurch and in the Budget speech last week. In the Budget speech I reported that we have a strong and growing economy. Today the Reserve Bank's Financial Stability Report confirms that the financial system remains sound and is operating efficiently. Of course there are always risks to be managed and this Government continues to prudently manage these risks as it has for the last many years.Rt Hon Winston Peters: Why is he claiming that GDP growth will be over 3 percent when many experienced economists such as Michael Reddell a former Reserve Bank adviser and David Snell an Ernst & Young executive tax director and a whole host of others are stating that the real growth will be under 1 percent?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: Of course there are a wide range of commentators. I appreciate that the member has been talking to Mr Reddell a bit but in terms of the economic predictions this is not just me. This is Treasury and the Reserve Bank. I see that the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) came out and said that it sees a strong economy for New Zealand over the next 5 years. ANZ has just come out and said that business confidence has lifted in May and it is expecting strong growth. Of course the members can find I am sure some people who disagree but I think the general consensus is that New Zealand is growing very well. Rt Hon Winston Peters: If when mass immigration of 2 percent is extrapolated from the figures these economists say that the growth rate is 1 percent or lower are they lying or is he?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: I have said many things in this House but lying about the economy is not one of them. Actually I think Mr Peters should stop living up his own slightly wonky dream of the New Zealand economy because a whole bunch of Kiwi companies are working hard delivering growth and delivering job growth and Winston Peters comes to this House and tries to pretend it is not happening.Rt Hon Winston Peters: If any of that is remotely true why is labour productivity decreasing by 0.7 percent and how are hard-working Kiwis benefiting from the so-called growth that he constantly refers to—or are the officials wrong and he right?Mr SPEAKER: There are three supplementary questions there—or in fact four. The Minister can address any of them.Hon STEVEN JOYCE: We are talking about the actual figures as reported by Statistics New Zealand which I am assured is not part of Mr Peters' conspiracy—which I think probably includes Treasury the Reserve Bank NZIER and most of the banks—that apparently New Zealand is not growing. But Kiwis know it in fact. They have seen good strong job growth. We now have for the first time over 2.5 million New Zealanders employed. They have seen wage growth ahead of inflation and one piece of evidence in favour of that is the number of Kiwis returning from overseas to live in this country—unlike when the member was last in Government when they were rushing to leave the country. David Seymour: When a near-record 60 percent of New Zealanders say the country is heading in the right direction after three terms of Government are they lying or is Winston Peters on Planet Cuckoo"?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: All I can say is the Hon Mr Peters obviously does not like the good news that the New Zealand economy brings at the moment from all the hard work of Kiwis and companies. He is determined to talk it down and I encourage him to keep doing so but he is a long way from reality.Rt Hon Winston Peters: Is it not a fact that Treasury's output gap forecast shown here in this graph—all those lines are National's lines—will be negative for 10 consecutive years since National came into Government and next year as well? If that is true according to Treasury how will Kiwis benefit from the so-called growth or are his own officials wrong and he and "Junior" over there right?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: I do not know who the member thinks he is fooling but the reality of the situation is that New Zealand did borrow money through the global financial crisis and we did borrow money through the Canterbury earthquakes. The member may have only just now woken up and realised what happened over the last 8 years but the reality is that we are now back in surplus and investing in the New Zealand economy.David Seymour: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. I seek leave for Winston Peters to explain to the House—Mr SPEAKER: Order! The member will resume his seat. He cannot seek leave—[Interruption] Order! I have dealt with the first point of order. You cannot seek leave on behalf of another member. I have a further point of order. Hon Anne Tolley: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. It is the rules of this House that we refer to one another by our names. It is offensive to refer to someone as "Junior".Richard Prosser: Speaking to the point of order.Mr SPEAKER: No I do not need any assistance from Mr Prosser. It is not helpful—[Interruption] Order! If the member wishes to stay to complete his very interesting line of supplementary questions I expect cooperation. It is certainly not helpful to the House when such insults are cast across the House by any member. And in fact this question has been marginal from the time the first supplementary question was asked when there was reference to members lying or somebody else lying and it was repeated from both sides of the House. I perhaps should get tougher by ruling out some of the supplementary questions that are being asked at the moment to return some decorum to the way this House functions.Grant Robertson: Does Budget 2017 show exports as a percentage of GDP decreasing or increasing?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: We now know we are definitely scraping the bottom of the barrel when we get to that one. Exports are targeted to increase and the Government's target is that they be at 40 percent of GDP by 2025.Grant Robertson: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. That was a very specific question. I did not ask about exports generally; I said exports as a percentage of GDP.Mr SPEAKER: And I listened. It was not easy to listen to the answer. I think it was answered but I may well have been wrong. The reason I could not hear it clearly enough was because of interjections from my left-hand side. I have addressed it.Rt Hon Winston Peters: Why will he not admit that when these economists say that real GDP growth is low real GDP growth per capita is low wages are stagnant productivity is down manufacturing is down and output cap forecasts have been down for almost 9 years—why does he not admit that these economists are telling the truth and that he is not?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: I am not sure that members are actually allowed to accuse other members of not being truthful in this House and certainly Mr Peters is not being truthful if he continues with those accusations.Rt Hon Winston Peters: If I am not telling truth relying upon these Treasury forecasts and the latest one is June this year is he prepared to sack them or what?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: I cannot read what his graph says; it is too far away.Mr SPEAKER: It does not matter. That question was whether he is prepared to fire some Treasury officials on the basis of that information.Hon STEVEN JOYCE: Well yes I do get a lot of advice from Treasury officials and actually their advice is that the New Zealand economy is growing strongly particularly relative to most other advanced economies in the world. The member may choose to deny it but it just happens to be reality. I am not sure about his relationship with that reality.Rt Hon Winston Peters: Was Lincoln University's Greg Clydesdale wrong in 2014 when numbers were much less and he said: "For 20 years New Zealand has maintained high levels of immigration in the hope it would generate economic growth. We can now conclude thanks to a wealth of evidence that the policy has failed. We were sold a lemon."?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: I am not familiar with the eminent professor's work that the member refers to. I am familiar with a whole host of other organisations and agencies including the IMF Moody's OECD Treasury Reserve Bank Statistics New Zealand—generally seen as reasonably reputable—who suggest that the New Zealand economy is travelling very well relative to most of the developed world. We currently have the second-highest rate of adult employment in the OECD—it is 67.1 percent and actually if we want to keep growing and this Government does want to see us keep growing we will have to bring in some skilled migrants in order to do so. I know the member hates migration but then he wants to stall the economy and it is pretty obvious from his line of questioning that that is what he would achieve if he ever got near the Treasury benches.Rt Hon Winston Peters: Why persist with that sort of argument when former Reserve Bank adviser Michael Reddell says "I've done the OIAs I've asked Treasury and MBIE for any work they've done in the last few years on the economic benefits of immigration. There's nothing hidden. They just haven't got any substantive analysis or evidence to support current policy."?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: I appreciate the member's elevation of Mr Reddell to something like economist sainthood status this week but there are other economists he may be surprised to learn. There are a range of them from a range of organisations. Can I suggest he read a little more widely."