Cunliffe David: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to Ministers 
Cunliffe David: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to Ministers 
[Volume:678;Page:892] 
5. 
Hon DAVID CUNLIFFE (Labour—New Lynn) 
 to the  
Minister for Economic Development 
: Does he stand by his statement that “the global financial crisis and the Canterbury earthquakes were not projected in any of those forecasts”? 
Hon STEVEN JOYCE (Minister for Economic Development) 
: 
 Yes I stand by my full quote in reply to a question about a forecast in Budget 2009. That quote was: “Some of the forecasts since we came to office have changed and the member may well be aware—I am not sure—that the global financial crisis and the Canterbury earthquakes were not projected in any of those forecasts in 2009 to the extent that they have occurred. That is the nature of forecasts.” As the member may recall the first Canterbury earthquake did not occur until September 2010 and the more significant one was on 22 February last year. In addition the global financial crisis has been a moving feast since it began. For example at the beginning of this year there was a whole new crisis in the eurozone. 
Hon David Cunliffe 
: Before the Canterbury earthquakes began was GDP above or below Treasury’s December 2008 forecast and by how much? 
Hon STEVEN JOYCE 
: I do not have that particular example at hand but I am sensing that the member is saying it was below. As I pointed out one of the other bigger things that has been going on is the global financial crisis which has been making it very difficult I am sure for forecasters all over the world to find out exactly how things should go. But the good news for the member is that we have had growth in nine of the last 10 quarters and New Zealand has been seen as riding out these crises relatively well. 
Hon David Cunliffe 
: Speaking of which are the latest GDP figures above or below the forecasts made immediately after his Government came to power in December 2008 during the depths of the recession and by how much? 
Hon STEVEN JOYCE 
: I am sure again by the way the member has asked that question that he is assuming they are below and the point I would make again is the same point as in response to the primary question. It is that the Canterbury earthquake has occurred subsequently and also we have had the situation with the moving feast that is the global financial crisis. I am not sure of the point the member is seeking to make but the point I would make is that the Government under the leadership of the Prime Minister and the finance Minister has done a very good job in managing its way through those crises. 
Hon David Cunliffe 
: If GDP was below those forecasts why did he tell the House in answer to question No. 8 on 29 February that “The pre-election update last year forecast the current account deficit to widen by about just under $5 billion over the next 4 years. The main reason for that apart from export prices coming off their record highs is the Canterbury rebuild” when Treasury’s Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update ascribes only one-quarter of the change to that? 
Hon STEVEN JOYCE 
: As has been pointed out in response to a question in the House on this matter in 2016 the deficit is projected to be 6.9 percent of GDP of which Treasury now estimates about 1.7 percent is due to the Christchurch earthquake rebuild. But again I would point out to the member that these are all estimates and forecasts and they will no doubt continue to be refined as the years go on. 
Hon David Cunliffe 
: In light of these events in what year did the record number of New Zealanders permanently emigrate to Australia and why did they leave? 
Mr SPEAKER 
: The Hon Steven Joyce is not really responsible for emigration but if he— 
Hon Tony Ryall 
: We want to know every individual case. 
Hon STEVEN JOYCE 
: Yes I think it is reasonably far from the primary question but I would point out again that there have been significant numbers leaving particularly from Christchurch over the last 12 months as a result of the earthquake. I do not have the particular figures. 
Hon David Cunliffe 
: I seek leave to table this document from the Parliamentary Library which indicates that only 25 percent of the deterioration in the current account forecasts can be ascribed to the Canterbury earthquakes. 
Mr SPEAKER 
: Leave is sought to table that document from the Parliamentary Library. Is there any objection? There is no objection. 









Document by leave laid on the Table of the House. 
Hon David Cunliffe 
: I seek leave to table data from Statistics New Zealand which show that the year in which the record— 
Mr SPEAKER 
: Statistics New Zealand always has a title to its data releases. 
Hon David Cunliffe 
: Yes the net permanent migration data series— 
Mr SPEAKER 
: I thank the member. 
Hon David Cunliffe 
: —which shows that the year in which a record number of New Zealanders emigrated to Australia was in fact 2010. 
Mr SPEAKER 
: We are not going to seek leave for that because members all have that information. 
Hon Lianne Dalziel 
: Is he concerned that repeated delays in the rebuilding of Christchurch will threaten the Government’s much-vaunted return to fiscal surplus in 2014 and if so what action is he taking to address the failure of the insurance market which appears to be one of the remaining key problems for the rebuilding effort? 
Hon STEVEN JOYCE 
: That is possibly more of a question for the Minister of Finance. The point I would make is that the reality in Christchurch is as we know that there are a number of factors impinging on the speed of the reconstruction. Not the least of those is the ongoing seismicity that is occurring which the member will be aware of and which has the effect of moving construction back at times. There are also other challenges such as the news that may come out of the royal commission in regard to building codes. All those things have to be worked through. I am confident that my colleague the Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery is right over the top of these issues and is constantly updating his colleagues accordingly.