Hayes John: Tariff (New Zealand-Hong Kong China Closer Economic Partnership Agreement) Amendment Bill — First Reading 
Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume 
Hayes John: Tariff (New Zealand-Hong Kong China Closer Economic Partnership Agreement) Amendment Bill — First Reading 
[Sitting date: 22 June 2010. Volume:664;Page:12093. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.] 
JOHN HAYES (National—Wairarapa) 
: 
 I thought that I might quickly traverse for the benefit of “Dr No Man” some of the issues relating to the importance of China. In 15 years’ time— 
Hon Darren Hughes 
: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. The member Mr Hayes referred to the leader of another party by a name that is not that member’s name. He made a comment about another member and pronounced his name in a way that was clearly intended to deride that member. 
The ASSISTANT SPEAKER (Hon Rick Barker) 
: I recall the name but I did not quite get the significance of whom Mr Hayes was referring to. I was confused about that myself. If Mr Hayes made reference with an inappropriate name to a person then I ask the member to withdraw and apologise. If he did not I accept his word. 
JOHN HAYES 
: I did not notice myself doing it but I will withdraw and apologise to remove any doubt. 
In 15 years’ time in 2025 with 1.5 billion people China will be the world’s second-ranking economic power. At its present growth rate its GDP will outstrip that of Japan in 5 years’ time in 2015. It will outstrip that of America in 30 years’ time in 2040. Its share of world GDP currently 4.5 percent will rise to 7 percent in 2015 and will be close to 15 percent in 15 years’ time in 2025. China’s average standard of living should be by 2050 half that of America’s standard of living and even if China’s average growth rate is half that of today it will have a per capita income of US$6000. Hundreds of millions of Chinese will by then belong to the middle class and tens of millions will belong to its upper class. 
We can expect China to continue to finance US deficit for some years to come. We can expect China to become the leading investor in Asia ahead of Japan and the United States. Despite the efforts of the Communist Party of China it will eventually have to pass power to elected officials. Unless there are reforms China will have to face many difficulties. Ninety percent of Chinese people have no retirement plan or health insurance. Half the urban people and fourth-fifths of rural people have no access to health care. Half of China’s 500 biggest cities lack drinkable water and sewerage systems. China will have to build urban infrastructure fight corruption and put a stop to corruption in public finance areas find work for hundreds of millions of people flowing into towns improve education reduce income gaps train managers reform an obsolete public sector and establish judicial systems capable of protecting private and intellectual property. By 2025 the Communist Party of China will have been in power for 76 years. No other political party in the world has lasted in power for more than 70 years. We can expect it to fade in importance. 
To the west India has 1.4 billion people. It should be the most populous nation on the earth by 2025 and the third-ranking economic power after America and China. I was at the launch of the Wellington chapter of the India New Zealand Business Council earlier this week. The Indian High Commissioner at the meeting talked about India having 9 percent compound GDP growth for the next 20 years. India’s democracy will have to meet and deal with very similar challenges to those facing China. These developments will result in a doubling of urban populations within 10 years—that is 2025—and a doubling of the demand for raw materials. 
Against this global background we must position New Zealand to place our trading relationships on an open and secure footing. New Zealand companies will want to market produce and also services into China. We must ensure certain access to the Chinese markets and to the Hong Kong markets to allow the export of services because our companies can benefit from liberalisation of both the Hong Kong and the Chinese markets. These are the key reasons behind New Zealand entering into the New Zealand - Hong Kong China Closer Economic Partnership Agreement. We want secure more certain access to the Hong Kong services market and we want to ensure that New Zealand service providers benefit from future liberalisation by Hong Kong in particular sectors. We want to enable traders to benefit from trade-facilitating rules of origin accompanied by robust verification systems. We want to provide a framework for regulatory cooperation and consultation and we want to allow for more effective discussion and cooperation on labour and environmental matters in line with New Zealand’s sustainable development and economic growth objectives. 
With those few words I commend the Tariff (New Zealand-Hong Kong China Closer Economic Partnership Agreement) Amendment Bill to the House.