Bayly AndrewANDREW BAYLY (National—Port Waikato): Thank you Madam Speaker. It's a pleasure to be talking on—I think it is the right order—the Appropriation (2021/22 Supplementary Estimates) Bill and the Imprest Supply (First for 2022/23) Bill. Well I think that just says it: the first. That means that Mr Robertson's going to come back for more money—and gee don't we know that. He has an insatiable appetite for a bit of deck a bit of money from people. And guess where he goes and gets it? He gets it from you all of you—not you but part of you Madam Speaker. I've got to say it comes from you as well. It comes from every New Zealander; he just loves spending your money. Wow. I don't know how many more First for 2022/23"—I think that that is a superb title! Someone blew that one.Anyway—anyway—gee. I'm just reflecting. How many crises have we got at the moment?Hon Member: Fire crisis.ANDREW BAYLY: Oh that's right I'd forgotten that one.Dr Shane Reti: Health.ANDREW BAYLY: So we've got—Mr Reti—the health crisis. Yeah we've got 18000 operations that haven't been dealt with. And of course so many thousands of New Zealanders don't know that they're in trouble yet from a health perspective.Dr Shane Reti: Wait times.ANDREW BAYLY: Wait times. We've got an economic crisis—and I'm going to talk about that because you know what our debt's doubled from $60 billion to $133 billion. And don't worry it's going to continue under Mr Robertson. It's going to get to $185 billion.Hon Member: How much?ANDREW BAYLY: Three times—$185 billion—since two years ago up to 2025. That is a staggering amount of increase—three times. Mr Robertson will leave this office as one of the biggest spenders one of the finance Ministers who has spent so much on tick. And this is what? I've just done this: the first for 2022/23.Anyway we're talking about crisis. So we've got the health crisis we've got the economic crisis and we've got the cost of living crisis—gee. And here is a Labour Government who's saying that they're going to look after the vulnerable. They have done the most shocking job for the vulnerable. Guess who gets hurt when the price of groceries—fruit and vege—goes up in the grocery shop the supermarkets? Who gets hurt when the price of petrol gets up well over three bucks? Who gets hurt when entrance costs go up? You know the average mortgage—my good colleague Nicola Willis talking about the average mortgage $600000 with the increase now. The average increase per week is over a couple hundred bucks.And then of course if you're not in that situation you can't get a house. And gee you're not going to be able to get a house for a while unless you got lucky enough to have wealthy parents. If you're having to rent—guess who rents mainly? More vulnerable people on fixed incomes. Up by 150 bucks. That is a cost of living crisis that's for certain.Then we've got the workforce staffing crisis. Talk to all the small businesses.Todd Muller: Can't find anybody.ANDREW BAYLY: We can't find it. Every business I have been into over the last two years says to me they cannot find good labour. That's why National came up with a policy to help businesses invest in good plant and equipment to improve productivity but also to help businesses retain their staff and put them and help them into better paying jobs in more important parts of their businesses. But of course we've got so many businesses like the hospitality and all those other businesses in places like Queenstown that will never be able to do anything other than look at slowing down their businesses so—ASSISTANT SPEAKER (Hon Jacqui Dean): Order! Order! Order! Order! The member is giving in nature somewhat more of a general debate speech than addressing issues that arise in the two bills before the House. I invite the member to come more closely to the bills that are being debated. Andrew Bayly.ANDREW BAYLY: Thank you Madam Speaker. So all this—it leads to more cost. As my good colleague Simon Watts who just spoke before said 14000 new bureaucrats. Fourteen-thousand more public servants. That is costing New Zealand more than $1.5 billion a year in additional personnel costs. And you can see it in the Budget; you can see it in terms of the three waters the $2.5 billion that's been set aside for that; we can see it in health reforms $0.5 billion that's been spent so far which is all going to feed through into the future requirements for funding which is what the appropriation is all about. These are big chunky pieces of costs that will lead to a much worse economic and financial situation for New Zealand. I think the most damning part of this has been the drop in productivity that's come about which is symptomatic of what has been happening around the financial situation that we are seeing. It's feeding through into—businesses are less productive now. It is just making it so much harder for people to survive.I think one of the other aspects that is interesting that will feed through into the need for more funding and the appropriation is also the current account deficit. It's interesting when you look at the current account deficit it's one of those areas that's had very very little emphasis. Traditionally we've had a current account deficit of about $10 billion a year which in the scheme of things over the $340 billion economy is OK—it's not ideal we'd like to have a positive figure. But what is interesting looking at the financial projections is that in 2022 and 2023 we're going to have an estimated or projected deficit of $24 billion. That is a significant increase—it's basically over half the increase in the current account deficit. All this is meaning is that the debt of the country is going to increase because that is going to feed through into the financial situations.And I've got to say to you all of these things are just making it harder for New Zealanders. The way that we're having to live now with the wage changes that are taking place—or lack of them—it means that in effect all New Zealanders now are poorer off than they were a couple of years ago. That is the most damning thing.The worst thing about what's happening is that it's also making our businesses much more uncompetitive. Because what has happened with the rapid increase in inflation which is feeding through into what's happening with the Government accounts is that we have built into the economy a much higher cost-structure which means that we're paying more for our labour—if you can get it—we're paying more for import components going into our businesses.Even if inflation which is obviously near 5 percent—it is likely to stay up at those high levels for quite some period of time. Even if they come back within the bounds of the Reserve Bank requirements of 1 to 3 percent what we have done is that we've embedded a much higher cost structure into New Zealand that will not dissipate. We have therefore made New Zealand businesses less competitive from an international perspective and we've made it a much more unfavourable much more disadvantageous situation for particularly vulnerable people and people on fixed incomes. That is the travesty of what we are facing.All that is fed through into a financial situation which I think is—not only are we dealing with all these other crises and I didn't talk about the educational crisis I didn't talk about the crime crisis I didn't talk about the housing crisis. But what it has fed through to is ultimately an economic crisis that will take some time to deal with. The question that I've got is: how are we going to give the confidence to New Zealanders that they first of all should stay in New Zealand and not immigrate to Australia; but secondly how do we give the confidence to our business community and to individuals to want to stay here to give New Zealand a fair shot? Because at the moment we've got this dramatic brain drain that's leaving for places like Australia and Canada—both countries have been actively recruiting in New Zealand for quite some period of time. The outlook for New Zealand is poor; it's going to take National to turn this ship around. And gee we've got a big job ahead of us."