9. Climate Change Targets—Impact of Billion Trees ProgrammeTODD MULLER (National—Bay of Plenty) to the Minister for Climate ChangeClimate Change Targets—Impact of Billion Trees Programme9. TODD MULLER (National—Bay of Plenty) to the Minister for Climate Change: Has he received advice from officials relating to the expected contribution to a 2050 climate change target from a programme to plant a billion trees over the next decade?Hon JAMES SHAW (Minister for Climate Change): Yes I have.Todd Muller: By 2050 what percentage of New Zealand's present greenhouse gas emissions can be offset by planting one billion trees over the next decade?Hon JAMES SHAW: The one billion trees programme is a 10-year programme. It'll contribute up to an additional 35 million tonnes over the 2020s which will help us in particular with our 2030 target. Current estimates are that the programme could contribute up to an additional two million tonnes in the year 2050. This estimate I have to say assumes no additional planting above business as usual after 2030 because the billion trees programme is a 10-year programme. So I would anticipate that successive Governments would see value in continuing to stimulate further tree planting beyond that initial 10-year programme.Todd Muller: In order to achieve a 2050 zero-emissions goal will a further one billion trees be required to be planted by 2040 another billion trees by 2050 and at what point does New Zealand just become one giant pine plantation?Hon Carmel Sepuloni: Why do you hate trees?Hon JAMES SHAW: Ha ha! I'll answer the last part of the question first. Not all of the trees will be pine plantation trees and we're currently awaiting some further advice modelling the mix between rotation pine and permanent native forestry. The billion trees strategy is about having the right tree in the right place at the right time—if I may channel my colleague—so while carbon sequestration is an important part of the programme it also has to achieve jobs in the regions biodiversity erosion control and water quality outcomes as well.SPEAKER: I see the problem the member has with patsy supplementaries.Todd Muller: Thank you for your contribution Mr Speaker.SPEAKER: Not as much as I'm sure Mr Shaw will.Todd Muller: So if we have a billion trees planted every decade for the next three decades 100 percent renewable electricity and renewable transport will we achieve a zero-emissions goal or if not what further measures will be needed?Hon JAMES SHAW: What we're doing with the zero carbon bill is setting up the institutions that will help to answer some of the questions that Mr Muller raises. The intention of the zero carbon bill is to put in place the 2050 target and some of the specifics around that. It will also set up the independent climate commission the job of which is to set up carbon budgets that help us to get to that net zero target by 2050. That may include sector-specific sub-targets or gas-specific sub-targets as well. It's actually not up to me to say sector by sector where you're going to get the emissions.Todd Muller: Is an all sectors all gases zero-emission goal achievable for New Zealand without turning all pastoral farming into pine and native plantations?Hon JAMES SHAW: Yes.