Watts SimonSIMON WATTS (National—North Shore): Thank you very much Madam Speaker. I want to join with the last member just in terms of acknowledging the Beach Haven community on the North Shore. I know within his community that has hit hard home and I know across the broader North Shore that has been an issue and something that is recognised. I also want to acknowledge today in terms of the anniversary around the Christchurch mosques tragedy as well and join with other speakers in this House to acknowledge the impacts of that.So we're here today to discuss the Budget Policy Statement (BPS). Lovely front cover there as well—looks quite similar to the Auckland Council annual report but I'm sure it hasn't been copied. But the Budget Policy Statement is one of those salient cogs I think in the machine. But the challenge is if you go into any room around the country and you mention BPS"—unless you're in Belmont where it's Belmont Primary School "BPS"—most people would just look at you and sort of you know there'd be a lot of confused faces around the board. However it is a very essential part of the process that we play and that Government plays and the document that we're going to discuss today and debate obviously contains the vision for the Government in terms of how it sees us moving forward. The problem with this document is that the vision that's included in this epitomises everything that's going wrong with the direction of this country and that is a big challenge. We acknowledge that the Budget process is a complicated process. As a chartered accountant I thoroughly enjoyed going through this document as a member of the Finance and Expenditure Committee—but what Kiwis I believe want isn't that complicated. Actually I think you can probably sum it up in one word and that is "hope". There is a real fear within our communities and in my community of the North Shore and I also feel it as a dad as well: I worry that my children are going to inherit a future one of less opportunities and one in which there is little hope. The vision set out in this document by this Government shows that they don't have the ambition or the skill to turn this around.So I want to talk about three elements of this document. One around cost of living one around mortgage rates and one around health and infrastructure. The first thing I want to talk about today is around the cost of living crisis. The cost of living crisis is by far the single biggest issue facing Kiwis no matter where you live in this country. But the Labour Government's track record on this issue is like a Shakespearean tragedy. First came denial: there were months and months when there was just no cost of living crisis. I mean you would struggle for the Government to even be able to utter the words and hoping like magic that if they didn't mention the word then it was going to disappear which didn't happen. But then it came to the minimisation point and sure there was some acknowledgment by Government that there is a cost of living crisis but there was a real clear articulation that "I'm sorry there's nothing we can do about it." All right? No accountability hand waving in the air it's all Ukraine war the global factors—any figure any excuse that they could give without the basic premise that they could take accountability or responsibility for what it is.But I think where we've got to now is the last and probably final phase of that process and that's an acceptance phase. We've seen very quickly that the Labour Party particularly in the last few weeks has become the party of you know not doing too much—or maybe doing not much but "Maybe we'll do it later." A lot of kicking for touch. But they basically tossed their entire election manifesto. They've tossed it out to try and buy back that narrative. But Kiwis can see through that. This new Prime Minister that's come in—bread and butter Prime Minister—he's accepted that there's a cost of living crisis. He just hasn't quite accepted that he needs to do anything about it right? He hasn't accepted that he can do anything about it.What I predict when we come to Budget day which is obviously coming up in May is that we're going to see more band-aid solutions in regards to dealing with the cost of living. Like that cost of living payment that went to people living overseas and those ones that were backpacking and stuff like that. And so this basically left hard-working Kiwis shaking their head going "What is really going on?" It will be more spending by the Minister of Finance and no doubt the Minister of Transport Michael Wood on whatever projects catch their eye. Consultants from the top end of town will be lining up in a conga line trying to get their slice of the pie and families on the bread line will continue to do it tough. So that's what I predict is going to happen. And of course the last aspect is we'll get a few more taxes no doubt—if there is anything left to tax by then and that is a big "if".But the reality is that Kiwis across this country are staying awake at night wondering how they're going to put food on the table or how they're going to pay the rent. And this document that is being cleverly put together basically doesn't deal with it. So let's talk about those mortgage rate elements because I think that's really important and it's important to talk about the impact around inflation on interest rates. While this Government has been very busy spending up like there's no tomorrow whatever bright ideas come to the Cabinet meeting every Monday the interest rates are skyrocketing. We've seen the first rate increase this year is the 10th consecutive rate increase. And the Reserve Bank no doubt aren't going to be finished yet. You've got economists out there saying that mortgage rates are going to go over 10 percent and that is a reality that's going to be hitting Kiwi households. What we've seen with the interest rate increases is basically inevitable because the Government isn't doing anything about dealing with the underlying root cause. We need to keep that in sight because you can talk about basis point increases in regards to mortgages but for every one of those increases it's hitting the back pockets of hard-working Kiwis and real Kiwis are going backwards under this Government.So young families are the other ones that are impacted those ones that have saved up hard for that dream to buy a home. The sad reality is that it is for many of them simply what I said before: a dream. It is not going to be their reality because they're not going to have to afford it. And half of mortgage holders when they re-fix their mortgage in the next six to 12 months those families are going to have to get around those kitchen tables in the evenings and go "Well how are we going to find the additional money?"—hundreds of dollars that is going to be needed to meet their weekly payments. What are they going to be able to do? What in reality in terms of decisions are they going to be able to do? Because all of the cash and all their wages have been eaten up by inflation or increasing food prices and these increases are growing at the fastest rate in the last 30 years. So they can only do one thing—Shanan Halbert: Increasing water rates.SIMON WATTS: I hear the member from Northcote providing a little bit of commentary. The only thing that they can do is tighten their belts and make those impossible choices because for many of these families they will be impossible choices.As you turn on the TV each night and you see that the Government continues to you know spend like there's no tomorrow there's going to be a continual wastage. We've seen the high-priced consultants and the spending on that we've seen that in the building of light rail to nowhere and the new "Uber tax" that's come out. So it's no wonder that the majority of Kiwis think that we're going backwards. The last aspect and the last few minutes is around health and infrastructure. We've heard today just the complete shambolic nature of where the health system is. The sad reality is that this is hitting our families and our communities really really hard. We've seen $50 million of consultant spend at least on that light rail project going to nowhere. We've seen health systems that have had a huge amount of expensive restructuring. We're reminded and this reminds us why Kiwis believe that this Government are so wasteful in terms of their overall expenditure. I mean we even heard it today at question time in terms of the waiting times—I mean absolutely horrific waiting times. These are waiting times that will lead to adverse clinical outcomes for individuals and individuals may die as a result of that. That is the reality of what they're facing. Meanwhile this Government is throwing around money wherever they can get to.So the document the Budget policy document that we've got here should really be able to give Kiwis hope that you know they've got a Government who's got ambition and is tackling all these challenges that face us as a country the confidence that they are going to make the hard calls that they need to do to secure the future that they deserve. Well that's reasonable. Instead within this document we see a Labour Government—that we've come to know very well in the last five years—big on talk but with no real plan. Inflation remains high and the Government is steering the ship head on into recession with unemployment increasing. The only hope is a National-led Government in October which will get this ship back on track."