Doocey MattMATT DOOCEY (National—Waimakariri): Thank you very much Mr Speaker. It's a pleasure to rise on behalf of the National Party for the first reading of the Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Smoked Tobacco) Amendment Bill.I must say it's good to be back for the start of the parliamentary sitting week after three weeks off and looking forward to some busy weeks ahead not only in the House but in the parliamentary select committee.And as that member who just resumed his seat Tangi Utikere said this bill will end up in the Health Committee. We're looking forward for it to go there and the call for submissions. The last member who resumed his seat did make a comment saying knowing it will make a real difference." And I'm not sure we do know and that's half the issue with this bill. I think that's why the National Party is supporting this bill but cautiously supporting it to select committee—only supporting it at this stage in the first reading.It'd be fair to say this bill is fairly experimental. And when you look at the regulatory impact statement for the Smokefree Aotearoa 2025 Action Plan under "Limitations and Constraints on Analysis" it talks about the measures within this bill and it says "Most of the measures being considered have yet to be widely implemented internationally and in some cases New Zealand would be the first in the world to implement them."So look I don't have a problem that New Zealand is going to be the first in the world in some of this policy implementation but I think we've got to keep open-minded about the effectiveness of the policy that we are legislating for today. It also says that there is therefore significant uncertainty in the outcomes. And that was my point: there is going to be a lot of uncertainty.And I suppose what we're going to hear from the select committee submitters is a range of views whether they think some of these measures are in fact going to be effective. It goes on to say "While a strong body of research exists around the theoretical impacts of the various measures there is a lack of evaluation from comparable markets." And I suppose what we always try to do especially on this side of the House is look for the evidence base. Chlöe Swarbrick: Oh!MATT DOOCEY: And what we always like to have is evidence-based policy. Chlöe Swarbrick: Let's talk about it.MATT DOOCEY: And I know my good colleague Chlöe Swarbrick wholeheartedly supports me in that intention for the National Party.It goes on to say "Even where there has been comparable implementation and evaluation in overseas jurisdictions the evaluation is limited." So I think we've got to be open with these measures in this bill that when we go through the select committee process and the bill may end up in a slightly different form there will need to be evaluation measures built into these policy settings to understand if we're going to meet the desired outcome. It also goes on to say "There is no empirical evidence to tell us how the measures will impact equity amongst the New Zealand population." And I think that's a key point because when we look at part of the issue that we are looking to problem-solve and address today it does show that there is inequity amongst the outcomes of the policy trajectory to date.Further in the regulatory impact statement it talks about the goal of reaching 5 percent by 2025 and says that modelling indicates that under a business-as-usual approach daily smoking rates are projected to only reduce to 8.1 percent for non-Māori and 20 percent for Māori by 2025 and that Pacific peoples are projected to reach 11.7 percent. So it shows that in fact we are not on track as a country to reach that goal of 5 percent of the population by 2025 in a business-as-usual approach.And that is why it's important that we do look at the policy settings at the moment. It's fair to say a lot of the policy settings to date about becoming smoke-free in New Zealand has been on the demand side versus the supply side. So when we look at the demand side it has been around education of people in New Zealand and specifically targeted education for at-risk groups and especially young people as well price increases and legislation prohibiting smoking indoors.But this new bill will look at how we maybe introduce some demand side measures to reduce smoking in New Zealand. And when you look at the key three parts of the bill around reducing and looking at supply measures it's reducing the number of retail outlets by 2024. Now I think that's going to be an interesting one. I don't think that's going to be as easy as we think. It's going to come down to what are the metrics and criteria for reduction and seeing if it is per capita or a geographic area. I've already had a small business in my electorate—Karla who runs the service centre in a small town called Cust—very concerned that when you look at small towns and regional New Zealand people might end up having to drive to the bigger towns and that's going to impact on retail outlets in smaller towns as well. It's easy to cut outlets out in big metropolitan cities but it will be interesting when there is only one outlet in each town and something's got to give. Will it be ending up that some outlets won't be in any towns at all?There is the policy setting of implementing low-nicotine cigarettes by 2025. I think when you listen to my colleague Dr Shane Reti he clearly outlined there is some concern around that and whether scientifically that is going to deliver the desired effect just by reducing the nicotine and what will be the consequential behavioural outcomes from reducing nicotine in cigarettes as well and also implementing a smoke-free generation 2027 which I actually think is quite an innovative policy and I congratulate the Government for that.Ultimately fair to say within adults there's an element of personal responsibility of people choosing to smoke or not but I think it's incumbent on any Government of the day to put measures in place to discourage our young ones actively taking up cigarette smoking. And it is encouraging that in New Zealand we are seeing cigarette smoking declining rapidly in large groups of young people—not all young people. Of course there is the substitution effect of vaping at the moment that we are still grappling with as a country like many other countries around the world as well.So all and all National as I say is cautiously supporting this bill for the reasons that I outline that in some ways some of these policy settings are experimental and we're not sure if it will deliver the intended consequence but I suppose part of the measure to look into those issues is at select committee stage. I'd encourage anyone listening today that is interested to make your submission once they're opened by the Health Committee. And I'm looking forward to grappling with some of those key issues around how effective these policy settings will be and also what evaluation tools we're going to need to make sure this bill will deliver the desired effect which is ultimately to have less than 5 percent of Kiwis smoking by 2025. Thank you Mr Speaker."