SpeechHon SIMON BRIDGES (National—Tauranga) (remote): Thank you Mr Speaker. The Budget Policy Statement along with the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) commences Budget cycle for Budget 2022 and make no mistake as we heard this is an incredibly important Budget taking us from the height of the pandemic to a world of tumult and uncertainty in every regard but certainly economically. New Zealanders are caught bobbing on the economic ocean and the seas are rough and the Budget is going to set the direction for New Zealand for that cork. Looking at the international papers this morning what jumps out is a Federal Reserve that is saying it will increase the cash rate in the United States by 50 basis points. The ANZ and others here are saying that's what our Reserve Bank are going to do. And the reason for that and for that discussion is because inflation is a big entrenched problem—that is it's around much longer than people had thought and it's going to be higher. And the papers are talking about a real risk and we broached this in the Budget Policy Statement (BPS) discussion of stagflation or even recession and I'm not necessarily predicting that but that's certainly the flavour that is coming through internationally. So is it actually too late in terms of these interest rate hikes or will they spur on these phenomena of stagflation and recession? Yes inflation's international but it's also domestic and we talked about that and it is higher in New Zealand than much of the Western World. During the height of the pandemic Grant Robertson and the Government as is shown in the figures spent more than almost any other country in the OECD—in fact every other country in the OECD other than the United States. And we grew our debt—yes it was low—but we've grown that public debt according to some and on some measures by more than any other country in the Western World. It was of course right to be increasing spending to keep people in work and to keep businesses going but we did it to excess. And that means in our remote isolated economy we're fuelling inflation higher and it has a cost of living implication. In fact it means—we believe in National and many others do as well—we are in a cost of living crisis. Higher inflation is leading to higher interest rates and other economic consequences which I've talked about and that means more pain for New Zealanders for longer.Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson—and again this came through in the Budget Policy Statement discussion with him—don't believe there is a cost of living crisis. If there is they think that it'll all be over before we blink. But everyone else as I say and certainly on this side of the Parliament we know that we have one and that it's here for the foreseeable future. Possibly even it's a new normal as food prices have risen by 13 14 percent as gas is over $3 and could possibly even get to something like $3.50—something I never thought we'd see. Housing and rent costs have grown exponentially. In fact everything has been affected by the inflation that we're seeing. And we're hearing in polls like the Ipsos international poll of our country that the cost of living is New Zealanders' number one issue and this came through actually in the submissions from a bunch of NGOs that women feel the brunt of it disproportionately—from a gender pay gap that we have still in New Zealand and also from oftentimes women making household decisions when it comes to those things I've been talking about like food and the like. Every other survey we saw backed these sort of themes up from Consumer New Zealand to the banks and their confidence work to other NGOs. The other group quite clearly affected by all of this—and it's come through in the submissions and also from the likes of that Ipsos poll—are those earning $50000 to $100000 a year; $80000 in New Zealand is not high on the hog any more; actually it can be very tough with a family to be living on that kind of income. And so this theme of cost of living in crisis came through very clearly in our Budget Policy Statement discussions: high inflation relative to anything I've seen in my adult lifetime and much lower wage growth meaning real wages are going backwards. It's a crisis whatever Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson want to believe and want to call it. The fact of this of our cost of living crisis should inform every aspect of Budget 2022. It should be at its heart; not the only thing but at its heart. And it would be a real Wellbeing Budget—because Mr Robertson told us that's what this is again when he came and presented in regard to the Budget Policy Statement—if that was at its heart and not just merely as I suspect it is a rhetorical device. Government has the capacity to provide meaningful relief for New Zealanders who are feeling pain; to provide that relief on the way through as we also deal with the other big often long-term issues that New Zealand has and that we've heard about in the Finance Committee over the course of our hearings on the BPS whether it be climate change whether it be issues of dependency and the like. On Sunday we of course in National—and Chris Luxon—put forward what we think should happen; in a sense gave an alternative to the views that we've heard from Grant Robertson. That is New Zealanders are slipping into higher and higher tax brackets and paying more tax simply because of inflation and we should do tax indexation. And I've asked Grant Robertson about this and about the issue of adjusting the first three income tax brackets and again if you take that person earning $80000 say they're not high on the hog but a policy like that in the Budget coming from the BPS and HYEFU wouldn't mean anyone gets rich but it would help in a crisis as well as helping other income earners and superannuitants—a policy of around $1.7 billion. These sort of issues that have been canvassed aren't inflationary or at least it's not right to say Well that's inflationary—giving people back their own money—but if the Government spends it it's all fine". That's a ridiculous proposition. And when it comes to spending cuts actually another issue that seems to be raised again given as we've heard in the BPS that Grant Robertson—and he didn't deny this when I asked him this in the committee—is giving to himself and the Government the biggest single operating allowance or new spend-up in $6 billion ever. That means there could be meaningful relief for New Zealanders if it were $1.7 billion alongside that and leave significant funds to do more. Mr Robertson told us and has already said that much of what he'll be spending will be on Labour's health restructure for a new centralised bureaucracy and a new climate change fund. The thing about the restructure is that it of itself won't deliver a single new operation or ICU bed. In fact the only people it will deliver for are the Wellington consultants who'll dine out on it. Even the DHBs speak of the serious disruption that will come from a restructure in the middle of a pandemic. As for climate change it depends whether it's just spending or real investment and excuse my cynicism but just as Labour's Provincial Growth Fund or the COVID fund have seen money wasted—spent neither in the regions nor on COVID respectively—so it well may prove for climate change. Grant Robertson isn't smarter and doesn't always spend it better than the rest of us. My view has always been that there are several reasons for our high inflation but big Government spending in an overheated economy is certainly one of them and the one the Government could do most about. We should provide tax relief to New Zealanders on the way through whilst also reining in Government spending through a focus on discipline and quality investment. Thank you Mr Speaker."