2. Economic Outlook—GrowthALFRED NGARO (National) to the Minister of FinanceEconomic Outlook—Growth2. ALFRED NGARO (National) to the Minister of Finance: What is the outlook for economic growth given elevated business and consumer confidence rising export values and higher consumer spending?Hon BILL ENGLISH (Minister of Finance): In the last month we have seen a range of measures that point to some strength and resilience in the New Zealand economy despite ongoing international uncertainty. Business and consumer confidence continue to run above long-run averages supporting business investment and consumer spending. Firms are reporting relatively high capacity utilisation. Residential construction and commercial construction intentions are high and rising. The most recent business outlook survey from the ANZ shows a net 16 percent of firms are optimistic. ANZ also reports that advertised jobs are up 9 percent over the past year.Alfred Ngaro: What are some of the main drivers of economic growth?Hon BILL ENGLISH: What we are seeing in the recent data is reasonably broad-based economic growth. Both volumes and values of exports are rising with seven of 10 export categories increasing in value in the June quarter. Overall the trade balance is around a billion dollars better than expected. New Zealand received 3.3 million visitor arrivals in the year to June—a new record—up 11 percent in the year. The manufacturing sector is growing with the most recent performance of manufacturing index showing reasonable growth.Alfred Ngaro: What other sectors are supporting growth and jobs through increasing exports as part of building New Zealand's broad-based resilient economy?Hon BILL ENGLISH: Growth across a range of exports is fairly positive. For instance ICT exports have more than doubled since 2008 to $930 million per year and now employ 23000 more people in the last 5 years. Horticulture exports are up 17 percent over the last 3 years to $4 billion. Horticulture is now employing 9000 more people than 5 years ago a 15 percent increase. Alfred Ngaro: How is business confidence in the building and construction sector translating to more houses where they are most needed?Hon BILL ENGLISH: The ANZ reports that confidence in the construction sector particularly residential construction is very high with a net 57 percent of firms reporting a positive outlook for growth in their own activity. Employment and investment intentions in the construction sector are both strongly positive. This is consistent with confidence at a reasonable level across the wider business sector.Rt Hon Winston Peters: When he was asked about the biggest driver of economic growth why did he not refer to what the Reserve Bank Treasury other banks and people like Kerry McDonald are saying—that the biggest driver is mass immigration which cannot be sustained?Hon BILL ENGLISH: Because the member is not correct. If he breaks down the immigration numbers he will see that the biggest single influence is that New Zealanders have stopped leaving. Four years ago there was an outflow of 39000 to Australia; this year this was a net inflow of 2000. We regard that as success. The member seems to think he should boot them out to try to drop house prices.