Robertson Grant: Oral Questions — Questions to MinistersText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeRobertson Grant: Oral Questions — Questions to Ministers[Sitting date: 26 August 2015. Volume:708;Page:6158. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]5.GRANT ROBERTSON (Labour—Wellington Central) to the Minister of Finance: Does he agree with First NZ Capital that there is a 25 to 30 percent chance of New Zealand going into a recession in the next 12 months?Hon BILL ENGLISH (Minister of Finance): No consistent advice from officials and elsewhere suggests the economy can be expected to grow at an annual rate of between 2 and 2.5 percent in the year ahead. That is not to discount that there are downside risks in the international economy and there has been some significant turbulence affecting global markets recently which if for instance it continued or worsened would have some impact on our growth prospects. But of course the member could be cheered up by the fact that for instance today’s export figures show that exports in July this year are around 14 percent higher in New Zealand dollar values than they were in July 12 months ago. So there is some indication the economy is responding.Grant Robertson: Is it correct that per capita GDP growth was negative in the March quarter?Hon BILL ENGLISH: I cannot confirm whether that is the case but it is possible because we have a record high inflow of migrants particularly from Australia—for the first time in a generation a net inflow from Australia—and it is possible that because of the very large number of people turning up in New Zealand and turning up to the labour market per capita GDP growth may be temporarily negative.Grant Robertson: Does he think that per capita GDP growth will improve in the June quarter; if not what would he call two quarters of negative per capita GDP growth?Hon BILL ENGLISH: Well Mr Speaker—Rt Hon John Key: A Labour Party poll result.Hon BILL ENGLISH: It is more than two quarters negative. In fact I think it is 42 quarters negative. In respect of the member’s question I do not actually follow per capita GDP quarterly. It makes no real sense to follow quarterly numbers of that type because productivity and GDP growth is a medium to longer term phenomenon and of course more people turning up is to some extent a vote of confidence in New Zealand’s future growth prospects because when the member’s party was in charge they were leaving in their tens of thousands.Grant Robertson: Does he not think that the fact that he has had to move in just a couple of months from arguing that the New Zealand economy had no problems at all to arguing whether or not we are heading into a recession might be a cause for him to finally be straight up with New Zealanders about the state of the New Zealand economy?Hon BILL ENGLISH: I think that shows that the Opposition underestimates New Zealanders. New Zealanders are not waiting around for some politician to give them a verdict on the economy. They are making their own decisions in their businesses and their households and their organisations. They take account of all the information they see around them and we back them. We think they are making good decisions because they are adaptable and resilient people.Grant Robertson: Does he stand by his statement on Radio New Zealand this morning that the Government’s strategy for diversification of the economy amounts to waiting for a sector to fail and does he not think he owes New Zealanders a bit more urgency when it comes to diversification than a broken-down ambulance at the bottom of the cliff?Hon BILL ENGLISH: Of course I stand by the statement which is not of course what the member actually said. The Government has been pursuing a strategy of significant and growing investment in science and innovation. That has been important for industries that want to diversify. But I simply pointed out the obvious. If prices in one sector drop New Zealanders do not wait around for the Opposition spokesman to tell them what to do. They shift their investment and employment to sectors that are growing such as information and communications technology which is growing at 10 percent a year; wine exports which are three times what they were 10 years ago; and tourism which is burgeoning. Of course those sectors are going to attract investment and jobs.