Clark David: Oral Questions — Questions to MinistersText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeClark David: Oral Questions — Questions to Ministers[Sitting date: 30 April 2015. Volume:704;Page:3075. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]10.Dr DAVID CLARK (Labour—Dunedin North)to the Minister for Economic Development: Is he still committed to the Government’s goal of lifting exports from 30 percent to 40 percent of GDP by 2025?Hon TODD McCLAY (Minister of Revenue)on behalf of theMinister for Economic Development: If the House would bear with me it is quite a detailed answer which I think is important. The Government is committed to lifting the performance of the export sector. The target of lifting the ratio of real exports to real GDP from 30 percent to 40 percent by 2025 was set in 2012 when the GDP figures were on the 1996 year. In December 2014 Statistics New Zealand made an unusually large number of historical revisions to some of our national accounts data as a result of adopting new international standards and updating the base year for GDP calculations. This meant a significant revision of the New Zealand ratio of real exports to GDP and a reduction to the order of 3 to 4 percent each and every year since 1998 affecting all the years that Labour was in office as well as the current National Government. To conclude—Mr SPEAKER: Order! The answer now is quite long enough.Hon TODD McCLAY: Well the last bit was the best bit—Mr SPEAKER: Order! The answer was long enough.Dr David Clark: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. It was a question on notice and asked a very simple question: “Is he committed to the Government’s goal?”. The answer I think he was about to give—Mr SPEAKER: Order! The member will resume his seat. I am comfortable that that question has been addressed. Does the member have a supplementary question?Dr David Clark: Certainly. Will he rule out lowering the target?Hon TODD McCLAY: We are therefore currently evaluating whether to make a technical adjustment to the target to reflect the revised Statistics New Zealand change in historical series. Any change would be no more than a level of the adjustment to the actual figures by Statistics New Zealand.Dr David Clark: He is not prepared to rule it out. Can the Minister confirm that an export growth rate of between 5.5 percent and 7.5 percent is now required to meet the Government’s goal of exports reaching 40 percent of GDP by 2025—more than twice the rate of growth expected in the wider economy?Hon TODD McCLAY: Given the answer to the primary question the member would need to go and check those figures. However what I would say is that since 2008 we have seen strong growth. New Zealand’s goods exports have increased by 21 percent—14 percent for goods and services—and are now valued at more than $51 billion. When services like tourism film production which would not be possible if the members opposite—Mr SPEAKER: Order! [Interruption] Order! I cannot see that we are getting anywhere near close to answering the question. I am going to invite Dr Clark to ask that question again.Dr David Clark: Can the Minister confirm that an export growth rate of between 5.5 percent and 7.5 percent is now required to meet the Government’s goal of exports reaching 40 percent of GDP by 2025—more than twice the rate of growth expected in the wider economy?Hon TODD McCLAY: No. Based upon the answer to the primary question those statistics or figures would need to be checked. But what I can confirm however is that New Zealand exports stand at $68 billion today—a significant growth since 2008 when we—Mr SPEAKER: Order! We are not getting any further. I will allow—[Interruption] Order! Would the member like to continue with his supplementary questions and he now has an extra supplementary question.Dr David Clark: Thank you Mr Speaker. Why is shifting the official measure of the Government’s export failure from value to volume in New Zealand’s long-term interests?Hon TODD McCLAY: The Business Growth Agenda export markets work stream has always referred to the ratio of real exports to real GDP. The Minister is currently evaluating whether to make a technical adjustment to the target to reflect the revised Statistics New Zealand figures as the original target was set based on the previously high series. Any change would be no more than a level of adjustment to the actual figures by Statistics New Zealand. No other change to the target would be planned.Dr David Clark: Not achieving the target but moving goalposts.Mr SPEAKER: Order! Just ask the supplementary question.Dr David Clark: Is the Government’s plan to turn the economy round the same Business Growth Agenda that has seen exports actually decrease as a percentage of GDP?Hon TODD McCLAY: No that is an extremely misleading comment. In 2008 when we came to Government there was $59 billion worth of exports. In 2014 there was $67 billion worth of exports. Businesses up and down New Zealand that have been involved in this increase in exports and the people they employ are grateful for the hard work the Government has put into the importance of exporting for New Zealand.Dr David Clark: Is the Minister concerned that figures released yesterday show that in the year to March 2015 his Government has overseen the largest annual trade deficit since the recession ended in 2009; if so when will he admit that his tired Government is out of ideas and has failed to deliver on its promises?Hon TODD McCLAY: The member needs to be careful not to read too much into short-term fluctuations in statistics. Indeed the change in trade volumes that was announced yesterday reflects changes in downward pressure of some commodity prices and that the economic cycle for Australia and China are in a different place. I repeat an answer to an earlier question. We have seen strong growth in exports since 2008 in both goods and services. Last year $68 billion worth was exported. In 2008 there was only $51 billion. That is an increase of $17 billion over that period of time.