2. Economy—ForecastsHon AMY ADAMS (National—Selwyn) to the Minister of FinanceEconomy—Forecasts2. Hon AMY ADAMS (National—Selwyn) to the Minister of Finance: Has he seen GDP forecasts from Infometrics predicting growth of roughly 2 percent per year between now and 2021" which is "more than 1 percent lower than Treasury's economic forecast"; if so what effect would GDP growth 1 percent lower than Treasury forecasts have on future Government surpluses?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON (Minister of Finance): I have seen reports of those forecasts just as I have seen other reports on the economy released recently including one from Westpac economists who said they expect growth of about 3 percent. In answer to the second part of the question it is not the rate of economic growth that will decide future Government surpluses; it's the priorities and spending decisions of Governments.Hon Amy Adams: Is he prepared to acknowledge any concern at all that all respectable economists and commentators including Infometrics ANZ and the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research amongst others are now talking down our economic future under this Government's low-growth anti-business policies and we are now once more—SPEAKER: Order!Hon Amy Adams: —net losers.SPEAKER: Order! Order!Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Mr Speaker—SPEAKER: No. The member cannot make that sort of assertion as part of a question. Start again.Hon Amy Adams: Is he prepared to acknowledge any concern at all that our economy now shows all the signs of slowing down considerably?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I'm prepared to acknowledge that some business sentiment is negative but the consensus forecast—for example the one published by FocusEconomics this month—shows growth of about 3 percent is expected.Hon Amy Adams: So is he seriously trying to claim that the policies of this Government like union-friendly industrial relations changes significantly higher labour costs more strike action banning oil and gas exploration turning away foreign investment and many others are going to have no effect on businesses or jobs nor are causative of these lower GDP forecasts?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I repeat: the consensus forecast is around 3 percent growth which is what Treasury were expecting. And I wonder if the member had taken the opportunity to read further into the Infometrics report where they actually said "We do not believe current business confidence levels signal a major contraction in business investment." So the report she's quoting actually doesn't back up her argument.Hon Amy Adams: Would he agree with the proposition that the most effective way to be able to afford essential Government services like higher nurses salaries and more infrastructure is to actually see the economy grow?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Yes. Economic growth is very important which is why the consensus forecast that shows 3 percent growth will give our Government the ability to continue to invest in the areas that the previous Government failed to do so.Hon Amy Adams: In light of that answer how can he be so dismissive of the numerous economic forecasts which are now coming out showing that our GDP growth is slowing which will make it harder to pay for essential services like salaries and infrastructure?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I repeat what I said earlier: there are a number of different forecasts. The consensus forecast released by FocusEconomics this month says 3 percent growth is what we can expect.Hon Amy Adams: So is the real reason he won't find more money for the nurses and he's had to deploy the Defence Force to staff our hospitals that Treasury officials have in fact told him that GDP expectations are lower and the reality is that he knows he has promised far more than he can afford.Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I reject the premises in that question and in fact this Government has doubled the amount of money available for nurses because we recognise that over the last nine years the health system was underfunded. Nurses were undervalued. We're doing something about it."