Korako Nuk: Oral Questions — Questions to MinistersText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeKorako Nuk: Oral Questions — Questions to Ministers[Sitting date: 31 May 2016. Volume:714;Page:11461. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]1.NUK KORAKO (National) to the Minister of Finance: What do Treasury’s Budget 2016 forecasts show about the outlook for the economy and how does this translate into more jobs and higher wages for New Zealanders?Hon BILL ENGLISH (Minister of Finance):The outlook for the economy is positive. Businesses are investing job growth is solid and on average wages are rising faster than inflation. Treasury is forecasting real GDP growth of 2.9 percent over the coming year and 2.8 percent on average over 5 years to June 2020. More than 200000 more people are in work now than 3 years ago and a further 170000 jobs are expected by 2020. Over that period the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.6 percent and the average wage is forecast to rise to $63000 a year—$16000 per year more than it was in 2008.Nuk Korako: How has the downturn in dairy prices affected the outlook for the economy?Hon BILL ENGLISH: It is clear that the dairy sector is doing it tough but it is also clear that New Zealand is a bit less dependent on dairy than we had all probably assumed. Despite the downturn in dairy New Zealand’s exports increased by $2 billion last year and are expected to grow by another 25 percent over the next 4 years driven by tourism construction the beef sector ICT wine and much of the manufacturing sector which is performing well. But there is no doubt that when dairy does better New Zealand does better and the faster growth in exports forecast in 2018-20 is driven to some extent by an improvement in dairy prices.David Seymour: How much extra money will the Government take from income taxpayers due to bracket creep over the coming 4 years?Hon BILL ENGLISH: I cannot give the member the details about that. What I can say though is that at a time of relatively low inflation—and the term for it is “fiscal drag”—it is probably slower and lower than it has been for some time.Nuk Korako: What is the outlook for surpluses and debt repayment given the Government’s continued focus on responsible fiscal management?Hon BILL ENGLISH: Moderate surpluses are expected this year ending at the end of this month and also in the 2016-17 year. They will increase according to these forecasts to $6.7 billion in 2019-20. Net debt is expected to peak at 25.6 percent of GDP and to fall to around 20 percent by 2020. This gives us more room to support New Zealanders if we face another economic shock or natural disaster and it also means that New Zealanders who are dependent on the Government for support know that the Government’s books are stable and in good shape and therefore their support is secure.David Seymour: Would the Minister appreciate me telling the House that the answer to my earlier supplementary question is $1.1 billion?Mr SPEAKER: A marginal question—the Hon Bill English.Hon BILL ENGLISH: Yes I have appreciated that already.Nuk Korako: What choices does Budget 2016 make to support the growing economy and strengthen our communities?Hon BILL ENGLISH: There were four main packages. Innovative New Zealand delivers $761 million over 4 years for science skills and regional development backing our innovators scientists and entrepreneurs. There is a $2.1 billion public infrastructure programme focused on schools and digitalisation within government. A social investment package provides $654 million to support vulnerable New Zealanders and a $2.2 billion health package provides $550 million a year for the health sector.