Mallard Trevor:  
Mallard Trevor:  
[Volume:622;Page:17313] 
Hon TREVOR MALLARD (Minister of Education) 
: 
 This is a sad occasion. I will not comment further on the member but I think it is sad that he cannot find it in his heart to follow the Chair on the matter. 
I want to refer to the person whom I expected to be leading the National Party in this debate. That is Dr Don Brash. I am tempted to use the words of the senior Government whip and say: “Bring out your dead.” but I will not do that. I will use the words Dr Brash said only a month or so ago: “If I deliver I am secure; if I don’t deliver I’m history.” He is history. He said that when his ratings dropped he would go. I suggest for the sake of National Party that it is now time for Dr Brash to go. 
In fact the speculation around the country is now not “if” but “when” and “who”. I am tempted to agree with the sign that my colleague from New Zealand First has put up which states: “Bring back Bill”. That is one of the options for the National Party. I want to canvass a number of options because I am contemplating running a sweepstake with a couple of legs. The first leg would be to pick the leader and the deputy. The second would be to pick the timing of the National Party change. I think the timing is still likely to be September or October of 2005. There are odds of about 3:2 on that particular time but the odds are still 8:1 for this year and 4:1 that the National Party will get its act together before Parliament is fully going next year. 
But the most interesting thing in all of the debate around the gallery and around the caucuses is who it will be. I agree that one of the clear favourites is Bill English—“Bring back Bill”—and the sweepstake will have Mr English coupled with John Key as his deputy at 5:2. That is the equal-favourite combination—the other is Mr John Key with Mr Brownlee as his deputy which will also be at 5:2. While I appreciate Georgina te Heuheu’s suggestion that she might be included in the odds I think that might be stretching realism a bit. 
 I will say that the outside odds in my poll are a relatively unusual combination: Pansy Wong as leader and Winston Peters as deputy at 10000:1. I think we are relatively safe as far as that combination is concerned. I have speculated on the possibility that the National Party will forgive and that Winston Peters will forget and go back to be its leader. It would be a good thing for National although I have suggested that it is much more likely that it will reach out to the very experienced the very able rejected Mayor of Auckland John Banks in order to get him back into the House to provide some leadership. 
I have indicated that Bill English could be 3:1 when coupled with Gerry Brownlee. I think that going back to some brains and some brawn or some brains and activity and some brawn on the National Party leadership bench could be a good idea. I have suggested that Katherine Rich in fact could be at 3:1 the deputy for Bill English. I think the National Party is a liberal group and although it will be very hard for it to think of the idea of having two women within a decade even if not in the same millennium in a leadership role in its party it is not beyond the realms of possibility. I considered the possibility of putting Mr Prebble in there but he has assured me that he is not available for the role and I took him at his word. We contemplated Simon Power but he has floated out to 5:1.