Webb DuncanSTATEMENT ON THE LONG-TERM FISCAL POSITION 2021Report of the Finance and Expenditure CommitteeDr DUNCAN WEBB (Chairperson of the Finance and Expenditure Committee): I move That the House take note of the report of the Finance and Expenditure Committee on the Statement on the Long-term Fiscal Position 2021.It's a real pleasure to stand here as the chair of the Finance and Expenditure to speak on our report on the Treasury's report on New Zealand's long-term fiscal position He Tirohanga Mokopuna. This document is an important document. It provides insight into the long-term challenges that New Zealand will face not just in the short term but the next 40 years. It's a useful document to ensure that we do not ignore those challenges but rather put policies in place now to prepare for them. The long-term fiscal statement has an important message in terms of the long-term pressures on Government spending. At the same time it's not a financial forecast. It can't be said to be any kind of accurate prediction of the future but a series of illustrative scenarios extrapolating out some assumptions over a long period of time and there are plenty of tables and graphs in that document. The fact is that the compounding effects of fiscal and policy decisions now will have significant impacts in the future now and through to 2060. Past long-term fiscal statements have shown similar scenarios and assumptions and historical trends that are extrapolated out over 40 years. In fact in 2016 the same document showed net core Crown debt reaching a higher level by 2060 compared with this report. It was 206 percent of GDP. This report projects or suggests 169 percent. I'd like to say that the Minister of Finance here in front of me reduced debt by 40 percent but that might be a bit of a stretch. But one of the major challenges that will face us which I would like to identify is that of climate change and the report has a significant section on climate change. [Interruption] Don't deny it Mr Bennet; not again. It really identifies not only the fiscal impact but also the wellbeing impact on New Zealanders across New Zealand across our coastal communities across our rural communities and importantly in Māori communities and the Māori economy. So I think it's really important that we identify that and we identify that in terms of our long-term challenge this Government is working has been working and will continue to work on these challenges so that we don't come down the track in 40 years' time having done nothing which is what happened in the past nine years. In fact this Government's having to play catch-up on nine years of inactivity on climate change.The fact is—and the report makes it clear—that climate change will lead to extreme weather events and as we stand here today Mr Bennett whilst you're harping on over there pretending that things aren't happening we have Cyclone Fili bearing down on the East Coast only weeks after another extreme event. The inaction of that Government has contributed to the problems that we are now facing in the fact that this Government is having to work at double speed to catch up. We're playing catch-up on the inaction of the previous Government and we've done that from day one—from 2017.Early on we stopped issuing exploration permits for offshore oil and gas. The emissions trading scheme had been left derelict in a corner by the National Party eviscerated by the National Party. We reinvigorated it and it's up and running again. The zero carbon Act admittedly was a cross-party piece of legislation and thank goodness for that but the Labour Government of the past term along with the Greens passed the zero carbon Act. We now have an ecosystem of legislation that is finally working. And of course we've just had the release of the greenhouse gas inventory from the Ministry for the Environment which underlines the need for accelerated action as we haven't reduced carbon emissions enough. This statement on the long-term financial position makes it very clear indeed that we need to act now because the longer we wait the more radical action will be needed and the document sets out that these radical actions are more costly and more damaging both economically in terms of what the actual fiscal cost is but also in terms of the wellbeing of New Zealand. So we've got to act now. The window to tackle climate change and limit global warming is vanishing but it is still there. This is a Government that is committed to seizing that opportunity with bold and lasting action. With this Government as we heard from our excellent Minister of Transport every policy is a climate policy.Our transport policy which has shifted focus away from roads to rail cycling and indeed shipping and public transport is about climate which is quite the opposite to what the National Party want to do. Matt Doocey just the other day said Let's make roads great again." a policy from the 1970s. It is outrageous. And Christopher Luxon would remove public transport subsidies on public buses saying that public buses should be self-sufficient. That is the most retrograde neo-liberal anti-progressive idea so far and that's saying something.Currently a multi-zone fare is Christchurch is $4.70. The Luxon reform would have it at $11.75. Luxon would overnight empty buses force some into car travel and force others to stay at home. The result would be a less mobile higher-carbon higher-cost and more congested city and that's the National vision for New Zealand. Of course when Luxon was challenged on this what was his response? It was "I haven't considered it that much." Has anyone noticed the growth in electric and hybrid cars over the last months? Statistics show that electric cars are selling at a greater rate—Nicola Willis: Point of order Mr Speaker. This is actually quite a serious debate.SPEAKER: Order! The point of order?Nicola Willis: Point of order—the member is far too wide of the issue that we're meant to be discussing which is the long-term fiscal position of New Zealand.SPEAKER: I've been listening very carefully to the member. I would've thought that spending on public transport subsidies would have quite a lot to do with the long-term fiscal position of New Zealand especially if people who were commenting on that in the media had any thoughts of being responsible for it.Dr DUNCAN WEBB: As I was saying the long-term challenge—Hon David Bennett: Where's the independence?SPEAKER: Order! The member will leave the Chamber—David Bennett.Hon David Bennett withdrew from the Chamber. Dr DUNCAN WEBB: As I was saying this is about taking steps today which will address the challenges that will be with us for the next 40 years and beyond. The fact that our subsidies on electric cars are shifting the needle on carbon around transport is of critical importance today. It is of critical importance today because if we don't do it now we will have to make radical change and the Treasury say that the cost economically and socially of radical change is much much greater. So we need to take change when we can as much as we can and it is a balance. We do need to strike a balance. We are making real progress whereas the other side would abolish the clean car subsidy and see us go back by years and years.And we have done a lot more—at the Finance and Expenditure Committee we looked at the Green Investment Fund another initiative which is saying we need to partner with the private sector to innovate around decarbonising the economy and of course there's the $4.5 climate response fund the hypothecated fund which will be invested into decarbonising New Zealand making sure that the funds from the emissions trading scheme are recycled back into a low-carbon economy. We have to address also the coastal problem—that our communities are at risk. From Granity on the West Coast one report said that the community is slipping into the sea. So we need to assist those communities in taking real steps so that they can be prepared for what is sea-level rise that we can see happening already. The West Coast is a great example. The glaziers are retreating the coast is eroding and we need to take steps. So we now have introduced a national adaptation plan. We have taken a stocktake of those risks. This is about looking out to the future. We now will be having our first ever emissions reduction plan to be released next month. It will provide a comprehensive list of actions to drive transformative change. It will set out how we meet our first emissions Budget and more policy strategies to reduce our emissions. This will be in sectors like energy waste building and construction agriculture and forestry. And when we hear from the other side they've got nothing to say on any of those things. We're committed to taking a long-term approach one that recognises the long-term fiscal challenges that not taking action today will result in."