Hayes John: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to MinistersText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeHayes John: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to Ministers[Sitting date: 13 June 2013. Volume:691;Page:11121. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]1.JOHN HAYES (National—Wairarapa)to theMinister of Finance: What reports has he received on the economy—particularly on progress in building growth and jobs?Hon STEVEN JOYCE (Associate Minister of Finance)on behalf of theMinister of Finance: The Reserve Bank this morning issued its Monetary Policy Statement for June. This confirmed the official cash rate has remained unchanged at 2.5 percent. It also confirmed that the Reserve Bank has slightly revised upwards its forecasts of economic activity over the near term with GDP growth expected to accelerate to about 3.5 percent by the second half of 2014. This will be supported by stronger private consumption than projected previously along with increased business investment and investment relating to the Canterbury rebuild. The forecast growth is expected to support more jobs and result in lower unemployment over the next 3 or 4 years.John Hayes: What are some the factors behind the Reserve Bank’s latest forecast for growth in the economy?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: There are a number of factors. Private consumption expenditure is expected to grow moderately over the next 4 years reflecting a pick-up in consumer confidence. Investment also remains a key driver of growth particularly related to the Canterbury rebuild. There is also a stronger outlook for business investment particularly gross capital formation following recent strength in business confidence surveys. The Reserve Bank’s view of trading partner growth is slightly more favourable than in its March forecast. All of these factors are expected to contribute to economic growth in New Zealand over the next 4 years.John Hayes: In the light of its outlook for improving economic growth what does the Reserve Bank say about the outlook for the labour market and especially the rate of unemployment?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: The Reserve Bank says the expected increase in domestic production will continue to support a gradual recovery in the labour market. Employment is expected to grow modestly with relatively stronger growth expected in Canterbury and in fact across the South Island. Overall seasonally adjusted annual employment growth is forecast to be between 0.4 percent and 2.2 percent over the years 2013-16. The Reserve Bank also forecasts the unemployment rate to fall from 6.2 percent currently to 4.8 percent by 2016. The Government is supporting these positive forecasts with a comprehensive economic programme aimed at encouraging businesses to invest grow and employ more people.John Hayes: So how does the economic outlook compare with New Zealand’s position 5 years ago and what are the benefits of the subsequent improvements for New Zealand families?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: It is really quite a turn-round on 5 years ago. The outlook for both the economy and New Zealand families is considerably better. For a start the economy is now growing faster than those of most other developed countries. In 2008 it was deep in a domestic recession that started before the global financial crisis. The cost of living is low increasing by about 1 percent annually. In 2008 inflation was more than 5 percent. Mortgage rates are at 50-year lows around half of what they were in 2008. That saves a family with a $200000 mortgage around $200 a week. The export sector and jobs in that sector are growing. Five years ago the tradable sector had been in recession since 2005. Households are now saving a bit more and paying down debt. Five years ago encouraged by Government policies they were borrowing and consuming beyond their means.Grant Robertson: Further to that answer can the Minister tell us whether New Zealand’s ranking in OECD unemployment statistics is better or worse than it was 5 years ago?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: I cannot actually tell the member exactly what it was but I can tell him though that it is one of the better performing in the OECD right now. And today we have more adult New Zealanders employed in jobs in this country than Australia has in Australia.Grant Robertson: Can the Minister of Finance confirm that in his Budget recently presented to this House Treasury projects that his Government will fall 61000 jobs short—Hon Member: How many?Grant Robertson: —61000—of its 2011 election promise to New Zealanders?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: The good news for the member is that there is a projection along roughly every quarter including from the Reserve Bank. What I can tell him is that there is one even in the last couple of days—Grant Robertson: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. It was a very specific question about Budget 2013 the Minister of Finance’s Budget. I asked about that.Mr SPEAKER: It was a question about whether the Minister could confirm some Treasury advice?Hon Gerry Brownlee: He used the word “election.”Mr SPEAKER: Order! I am asking the Hon Steven Joyce to address the question.Hon STEVEN JOYCE: I do not have those numbers to hand. I would be deeply suspicious of the member in that regard. But the point I was making which was related to that is that the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment short-term employment outlook just came out in the last couple of days—Grant Robertson: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. He clearly does not know the answer so I seek leave of the House to table the pages from 2013 Budget that indicate—Mr SPEAKER: Order! I am not prepared to put leave to table a document that is available to everybody.