10. Question No. 10—StatisticsDr JIAN YANG (National) to the Minister of StatisticsQuestion No. 10—Statistics10. Dr JIAN YANG (National) to the Minister of Statistics: Which demographics and areas of New Zealand were most under-reported in Census 2018 and what impact does he expect that will have on those areas and demographics?SPEAKER: The Hon James Shaw—as far as he is responsible.Hon JAMES SHAW (Minister of Statistics): The member is effectively asking me to divulge the results of the census before they have been released by the Government Statistician; to do so would be a breach of the Statistics Act 1975. As has been previously indicated the Government Statistician will in April announce a release schedule for the 2018 Census data. I understand the frustration that the member and others may be feeling in relation to the delay in the release of the 2018 Census data. It is of—Hon Gerry Brownlee: The next thing you're about to say is rubbish. It was the Government's census.Hon JAMES SHAW: It is of—[Interruption] SPEAKER: Order! Order! Some members of this House including me think this is a very serious issue. And it is not being helped by anticipatory interjections from the Hon Gerry Brownlee. The responses to this question and its supplementaries will be heard in silence but with that comes a clear indication to the Minister answering the questions that he is to play a straight bat.Hon JAMES SHAW: That's a shame! I understand the frustration that the members and others may be feeling in relation to the delay in the release of the 2018 Census data. It is of utmost importance that officials do continue to work through the process of delivering a high-quality data set. This is analogous to asking for the results of an exam that is still being marked. Dr Jian Yang: What's his response to a question listed in Statistics New Zealand's question and answer sheet: The response rates for Māori are likely to be much lower than other population groups. How will this affect Treaty claims?" Hon JAMES SHAW: Stats NZ are continuing to build a picture of the impact of lower individual response rates for Māori descent and iwi affiliation data. They are increasing their engagement with Māori interest organisations and with iwi to both confirm data needs and to look to develop complementary strategies where needed. Dr Jian Yang: Is he concerned that Statistics New Zealand have stated "Secondary data sources cannot provide some information such as Māori population statistics and iwi affiliation."?Hon JAMES SHAW: The reason why it's taking longer than normal to report on the output of a census is because Stats NZ are working with administrative data to supplement the results of the census to produce a very high-quality data set. They are doing this very thoroughly. It is taking some time but I do believe that we'll be able to give people what they need when they need it. Dr Jian Yang: Has he seen an article by Tahu Kukutai and Donna Cormack in the New Zealand Population Review that notes Statistics New Zealand may use Census 2013 data to impute who is Māori and who is not and that this may "undermine rights of Māori to self-identify [including] the right to refuse … to identify to the Crown."? Hon JAMES SHAW: No I have not seen that article. Dr Jian Yang: Which demographics and areas of New Zealand are most likely to be impacted if the census data is not available for the electoral boundary redraw before the September 2019 deadline? Hon JAMES SHAW: As I said in my answer to the primary question I can't talk about the results of the census before they've been released by the Government Statistician. She intends to release a schedule of census data releases in April and my understanding is that Statistics New Zealand are highly confident of being able to deliver a high-quality data set to the Electoral Commission by the time the Electoral Commission needs it. Dr Jian Yang: Well does it remain the case that Statistics New Zealand is not in a position to complete a new census by 2021 and therefore Census 2013 will remain the most recent alternative census available for the next two elections? Hon JAMES SHAW: In answer to the first part of the question I've been advised that running a census in 2021 would be high risk with less time to submit a business case and to obtain funding set up the census programme and team and go through the procurement processes to bring on board suppliers and to build and test changes to collection processes and systems to ensure a successful outcome. In other words abandoning the results of the 2018 Census before they've been completed and running an urgent census would be a higher risk and actually probably would produce a worse outcome. It is a large logistical exercise. It takes five to seven years to put together a census and so running one in three years would simply be inappropriate. Dr Jian Yang: Given the likelihood of under-report of the Māori population has the Minister met with the Labour Māori caucus to discuss the implications of the Census 2018 shortcomings? Hon JAMES SHAW: I've not met with the caucus as a group but I've had conversations with a couple of members of that caucus. However this is one of those areas where the Government's chief statistician and Stats NZ have operational control and so I have encouraged them to reach out to Stats NZ to have those conversations directly."