Robertson Grant: Oral Questions — Questions to MinistersText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeRobertson Grant: Oral Questions — Questions to Ministers[Sitting date: 01 July 2015. Volume:706;Page:4977. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]5.GRANT ROBERTSON (Labour—Wellington Central) to the Minister of Finance: Does he agree with ANZ economist Cameron Bagrie when he says the New Zealand economy is “heading off-piste”?Hon STEVEN JOYCE (Associate Minister of Finance) on behalf of theMinister of Finance: I agree with a number of points in the ANZ Business Outlook that the member is quoting from although not necessarily that one. I agree the medium-term outlook for the economy remains solid despite some recent headwinds in agriculture and from overseas. I agree the economy’s fundamentals remain strong long-term price trends are favouring New Zealand exporting and positive net migration as more New Zealanders stay or return home from overseas and confidence is remaining firmly positive despite coming off recent highs. I have to say that if Mr Robertson thinks the economy is off-piste now in 2008 when we came into Government it had fallen off the mountain and broken both legs.Grant Robertson: Does he believe business confidence turning negative for the first time since the Canterbury earthquakes means the economy is on the right track or the wrong track?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: I think the economy is on the right track and it is demonstrated by the fact that we have now had 17 consecutive quarters of GDP growth—that is 17 consecutive quarters of GDP growth. I appreciate Mr Robertson is of the type who likes to panic at the first sign of a change of numbers but this Government is concentrating on focusing on encouraging investment and growth and with 17 quarters of continuous growth I think there has been a fairly strong endorsement of the Government’s approach.Grant Robertson: Does the Westpac employment survey for June which shows the proportion of workers who have received a pay increase over the past year is the lowest for 5 years and the number who expect to receive a pay increase in the next year is the lowest for 6 years mean that the economy is on the right track the wrong track or just right off the trail?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: I think to consider that you would have to consider the inflation rate over the same period and the inflation rate is actually at historic lows of 0.1 percent. So to suggest that there should be bigger pay increases for everybody would be damaging to the economy when you have a very low inflation rate. Most pay increases that we are seeing are related to productivity and actually pay increases are running ahead of inflation as distinct from say 2008 when although nominal pay was going up it was going up slower than inflation so therefore people were going backwards.Grant Robertson: Does the value of exports falling by 5 percent and dairy exports plummeting by 28 percent in the last year mean the economy is “heading off-piste” or is this the trail he planned all along?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: Well the actual trend in exports has been strongly positive over the last 5 years. Yes it may not have escaped the member that dairy prices have got softer. When dairy is 23-odd percent of your exports that is going to lower the overall rate. The good news for the member is that other industries such as kiwifruit tourism wine information and communications technology international education and so on are steadily growing. Although they have not completely offset the decline in dairy they are actually a sign of a broadening and diversifying New Zealand economy which I thought the member was in favour of.Grant Robertson: Is it not true that as the Prime Minister actually admitted yesterday the economy is now being propped up by a Christchurch rebuild that is peaking and an Auckland housing bubble that can easily burst and does he really think those two elements are a stable base for economic growth in New Zealand?Hon STEVEN JOYCE: I think the member is both wrong in the way he quotes the Prime Minister and wrong in his assertions—Sue Moroney: That’s what he said.Hon STEVEN JOYCE: Well I saw the reports as well and actually both the Prime Minister and the Minister for Economic Development I do believe pointed out a number of other strongly growing industries. Given the member’s question he probably forgot the previous answer so let me run through some of those for him. The information and communications technology the high-tech manufacturing industry the red meat industry the wine industry the kiwifruit industry the education industry and the tourism industry to name seven or eight are growing strongly and I think as a country we should be proud of them and not try to run the place down.