Bayly AndrewANDREW BAYLY (National—Hunua): Thank you Madam Chair. It's a pleasure to be talking on this Estimates debate the finance and Government administration sector. When you turn your mind back to the occasion where the leader of New Zealand First stood in the Legislative Council Chamber and announced that he was going to go with Labour thereby anointing the Rt Hon Jacinda Ardern as the Prime Minister it was intriguing that he spent much of that speech talking about the impending doom of the economy. Many of us thought it was actually an irresponsible stance to take but after some reflection I think the point of that speech and that introduction in anointing this Labour - New Zealand First coalition was that if you can influence something you can actually set about achieving that outcome. Unfortunately the Labour - New Zealand First coalition seems intent on achieving the outcome that Mr Winston Peters spoke of about a declining economy.So the travesty about this is that when this Government came into power it was one that inherited large surpluses that had been ground out after years of managing an economy during very difficult times and we were just starting to see the benefits that all New Zealanders had helped to achieve. We had seen a capital expenditure programme that was really starting to bite and a huge programme that was going to take us forward. We were seeing an economy that was generating 10000 new jobs every month and we saw a country with relatively modest debt levels of just over 24 percent to GDP. So that was what they inherited with a global outlook that was improving with New Zealand at the leading edge of economies around the world.And where have we got to now? Well in only a matter of months we've seen that this Government has set about reducing through their actions the number of new jobs created. So we were at 10000 jobs a month; now we're at 4000 jobs which means those many New Zealanders who want to get a good job want to get paid a decent wage have less opportunity to be able to do that. We now see GDP rates below where they were before. We were at the leading edge over 3 percent of the OECD; now it's below. My prediction is the finance Minister will see us down below 2.5 percent before the end of this year.We're going to see debt levels decrease. They already have as a result of some flow-through but they will increase under this Government in the short term. So why is that going to occur? Well we've seen the $1 billion—the billion bucks—that was given to Winston Peters to spend on the cushions and curtains of a new diplomatic post overseas. We've seen the $3 billion given to Mr Shane Jones to go and spend what he might do around New Zealand often with little business case support. Then we've seen the $6 billion for transport jobs and projects ripped out of the regions diverted into a couple of trams in Auckland principally with some safety improvements. That's the travesty the impact that it's going to have on regional rural New Zealand. You know if you said Oh well let's go and take some of that money and spend it on investment and good investment." then you'd have more of an argument but unfortunately we don't because a lot of that money is also going to go to tertiary education.So we're going to see debt levels go up by $10 billion over the next three or four years and on top of that the other $6 billion that's going to go into off-balance-sheet items. In effect there's going to be $16 billion in more debt put on by that Minister looking across from the other side of this Chamber who is going to put it on this economy in the near term which of course we're going to have to pay as the New Zealand Government in the form of interest and over time repay it.And so we're seeing less money go into health spending than we put in the 2017 Budget less money going—[Bell rung]—to education Mr Chair. Although I will note some money went into the Ongoing Resourcing Scheme funding.CHAIRPERSON (Adrian Rurawhe): Are you seeking the call?ANDREW BAYLY: But we have—CHAIRPERSON (Adrian Rurawhe): Are you seek—ANDREW BAYLY: Why are we now—CHAIRPERSON (Adrian Rurawhe): Order! Are you seeking the call?ANDREW BAYLY: I am seeking the call.CHAIRPERSON (Adrian Rurawhe): OK. I call Andrew Bayly.ANDREW BAYLY: Thank you. But what we're seeing is the declining confidence in New Zealand and that is a travesty. And why is that? Labour reforms—labour reforms—cutting across businesses. We're seeing reducing immigration but where are we going to see it? People don't know. People don't know. Are we going to see it in our skilled category? Outside of Auckland if you say that you're going to reduce good skilled immigrants to New Zealand you are going to impact on the way businesses are going to be able to operate. Then we're going to see the welcome mat for foreign investment coming into New Zealand pulled and we've already put that sign out.And of course what I think we are going to see is the decline in housing and already we're going to see it because unfortunately I think Mr Twyford is meeting a market where the well-resourced developers are now stopping because they see too much risk in this economy. They see too much risk with this Labour - New Zealand First - Greens coalition. They are the ones who are stopping now. The proposition that the Government's going to sidle up to those developers in financial difficulty and work with them—I can imagine it: "We're from the Government. We're here to help."; those famous words. That's why I think Mr Twyford's running into trouble and unfortunately this economy is running into headwinds and it's sad to witness in only a few short months."