4. Question No. 4—FinanceNICOLA WILLIS (Deputy Leader—National) to the Minister of FinanceQuestion No. 4—Finance4. NICOLA WILLIS (Deputy Leader—National) to the Minister of Finance: When was inflation last in the Reserve Bank's 1-3 percent target range and when does he expect inflation to return to below 3 percent?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON (Minister of Finance): As has been the case since 1989 it is the Reserve Bank's independent responsibility to manage price stability. The monetary policy remit sets out that the Reserve Bank's monetary policy price stability objective is to keep future annual inflation between 1 and 3 percent over the medium term with a focus on keeping future inflation near the 2 percent mid-point. The last time an annual headline Consumers Price Index (CPI) reading was between 1 and 3 percent was in the March 2021 quarter. In response to the second part of the member's question making such predictions is extremely difficult in the face of continuing global uncertainty. Bearing this out there was a range of predictions when annual headline CPI inflation returned below 3 percent. For example both the ANZ and BNZ's latest published forecasts are for annual CPI inflation to be below 3 percent from the December 2023 quarter. The Reserve Bank in its latest forecast have CPI returning below 3 percent in the June 2024 quarter; Westpac from September 2024; and ASB during the fiscal year beginning July 2024. For comparison the IMF is forecasting inflation to remain above 3 percent in Australia Canada the United States and the UK during the 2024 calendar year; and in the euro area during the 2025 calendar year.Nicola Willis: Does he agree with ANZ that the domestic inflation surge is looking worse by the day and what domestic factors does he consider are driving inflation?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: In answer to the second part of the question there are a range of factors that are driving inflation. These include the ability to access goods at a price—including from overseas due to supply chain constraints—labour supply issues which are indeed challenging for many firms around the country. Many of the issues that the member describes as domestic" remain heavily influenced by what is a global problem.Nicola Willis: Does the Minister accept that the Government's immigration settings have contributed to severe worker shortages that are now driving up inflation and Kiwis' household costs?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: What I accept is that the Government's Immigration Reset has now seen around 66000 job checks undertaken so that those positions have been approved to be recruited. We have more than 30000 working holiday visas that have been approved. If the member is now wanting to rewrite history about the way in which New Zealand got through COVID and made sure that we actually kept New Zealanders healthy that's up to her. We don't govern in hindsight; we govern in the present and our immigration policies are contributing as we move forward to New Zealanders having the labour force they need. I absolutely acknowledge—as I just did in the last supplementary answer—that labour supply is an issue in the New Zealand economy and we are resolving it.Nicola Willis: Why when labour supply is such an issue in the New Zealand economy is his Government continuing to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to create Jobs for Nature and is it sensible to be wasting taxpayers' dollars on creating jobs when New Zealand farmers and businesses are crying out for those workers?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Well this is an interesting development: members opposite touring around the country supporting the conservation initiatives supporting the initiatives of primary industries to support the ability to not only help people get jobs but also protect our environment. Suddenly the National Party turns but we're seeing the real National Party now aren't we? They want more people out of work. That's what the National Party want: more people out of work.Nicola Willis: Isn't it the case that the Government's inflationary programme of reckless spending in which every dollar spent can be defended in the Minister of Finance's world and broken immigration settings are directly driving up mortgage rates for Kiwis?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: No. What is reckless is a party that would promise tax cuts for the wealthiest New Zealanders. Liz Truss has worked it out. They've dropped it but not the National Party: they want a tax cut programme that would give rich New Zealanders thousands of dollars a year and those on the minimum wage $2 a week. Trickle-down economics more people unemployed: that's the National Party's recipe.Nicola Willis: What does he say to the recent homebuyers who had to borrow massively to buy a house in the market his Government allowed to spin out of control and who are now kept up at night in terror worrying about looming mortgage refixing?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: What I would say to all New Zealanders is that we recognise that this is a tough time for many Kiwi households and businesses. That's why we've stood alongside them through COVID that's why we continue to support low and middle income New Zealanders with policies to lift their incomes which the National Party have opposed. I also say to those people: do they want a tax cut policy that would return a billion dollars to speculators and investors and take away that opportunity from first-home buyers?"