Mitchell Mark: Oral Questions — Questions to MinistersText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeMitchell Mark: Oral Questions — Questions to Ministers[Sitting date: 01 December 2015. Volume:710;Page:8376. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]1.MARK MITCHELL (National—Rodney) to the Minister of Finance: What reports has he received showing a recent lift in business confidence supports an outlook for continuing moderate growth and a more diversified economy?Hon BILL ENGLISH (Minister of Finance): Yesterday ANZ published its Business Outlook survey. Business sentiment continued to improve in November with net 15 percent of businesses being optimistic about the economy for the year ahead. Thirty-two percent of own-activity expectations are positive; profit expectations investment intentions employment intentions and export intentions all improved.Mark Mitchell: What reports has he received showing that strengthening activity in sectors of the economy besides dairy is expected to underpin higher growth in 2016?Hon BILL ENGLISH: The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research quarterly predications say that stronger activities in sectors of the economy outside dairy including services will underpin a pick-up in growth towards 3 percent over 2016. The current account deficit is expected to stabilise at around 3 to 3.5 percent over the next 4 years well below the record 8 percent current account deficit back in 2008 and they forecast around 160000 jobs will be added to the economy over the next 5 years so this suggests some confidence in the future of the economy.Mark Mitchell: What factors does the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research point to as supporting increasing diversification in the New Zealand economy?Hon BILL ENGLISH: Tourism is now New Zealand’s second-largest export and probably at the current rate of growth it is expected to overtake the dairy industry. There has been particularly strong growth in interest from international students coming to study in New Zealand which accounts for some aspects of the currently very high migration numbers.Mr SPEAKER: Supplementary question Fletcher Tabuteau.Fletcher Tabuteau: Thank you—[Interruption]Mr SPEAKER: Order! David Bennett will cease his interjection across the House.Fletcher Tabuteau: Including dairy what reports have you seen on the impact on future New Zealand business confidence should the El Nino drought be as bad as predicted and what plans are being made?Hon BILL ENGLISH: I have seen some reports that the prospects of an El Nino - induced drought could have an impact on the growth rate of the economy. The IMF which was here recently forecast it would knock off around half a percent of GDP; that is where the economy may have grown at 2.5 percent it might end up growing at 2 percent. The plans that are being made are being made by the businesses that will be directly affected by it—for instance farmers may be choosing to destock earlier in the summer.Mark Mitchell: What reports has he seen on trends for economic growth in regional New Zealand?Hon BILL ENGLISH: ANZ has released its quarterly review of regional trends. Activity rose in eight of the nine North Island regions and in four out of the five South Island regions with the strongest activity growth occurring in Northland Auckland Bay of Plenty Gisborne and Otago. It is particularly pleasing to see Northland and Gisborne showing some signs of strong growth. Economic activity increased by 0.3 percent in the last quarter in the North Island taking it to 3.1 percent for the year and 0.9 percent in the South Island. All of these are forward-looking indicators suggesting that a solid pace of expansion will be sustained in most regions.