Hodgson Pete: General Debate 
Hodgson Pete: General Debate 
[Volume:620;Page:16102] 
Hon PETE HODGSON (Minister of Energy) 
: 
 The House will rise for the year in about 9 weeks and a new question has arisen in New Zealand politics: can Dr Brash last as long as that? If he does then he will enter the new election year as leader and will therefore almost certainly lead National into the general election. He will lose that election. He will depart politics soon after. Under that scenario National will have a new leader about 1 year from now. But the other scenario is that he will be gone by Christmas and that scenario is starting to gain momentum. 
Let us explore the evidence: firstly the polls. National is tracking down these days in poll after poll and Don Brash’s own ratings are leading that decline. His preferred Prime Minister ratings are now low—again. If there is another month of decline like the last month or two the National caucus will stop its current muttering and start doing the numbers seriously. It is bad to watch it happen but it is about to get worse. 
Secondly let us look at his performance. Crucially that also not only remains bad but is getting worse. That man is not learning from experience. The post-Orewa shine has long since corroded and left him. The hope that his caucus invested in him has long since gone. He has responded to all of that by steering clear of Parliament. Instead he tours cadaver-like around the towns meeting with very small groups of people—mainly business. He becomes more distant not less. He is hermetically sealed. He has become more clinical and less able to take a position on any issue that resonates with any significant group of the public. 
Thirdly there are the policy flip-flops. Flushed with his Orewa success he let it be known that a series of major speeches on policy would play out this year. It turned out to be a series of one—on law and order. The good doctor was going to get tough with crime rates which happen to be at a 20-year low and put more people in prisons. “Oh yeah?” said the nation with one voice “Where? Where will you build these prisons? Will you build them in Tony Ryall’s electorate or in Simon Power’s electorate? Will you build them in John Key’s electorate? With what sort of money and how much money will it cost? When will you build them and with what workforce given that we’ve got the second lowest unemployment rate in the Western World?”. So the law and order speech sank into a swamp and the series of speeches was off—it was the flip-flop. But in the last week or two it seems as if the series might be resurrected again—flip-flop-flip. It is very hard to tell where National is. 
Fourthly Dr Brash has no judgment. He thought he could change the law on the nuclear issue and he thought he could get away with it. He is profoundly dismally out of touch. He thought that he might hock off Kiwibank. “Don’t do that” said members of his own party. He wants to spend the Cullen fund but his finance spokesperson thinks that that is a bad idea. Then over the weekend we watched the Mayor of Auckland get historically and comprehensively dicked and we saw Dr Brash put up his own sinewy hand and say that: “Maybe Mr Banks could come back into the ranks of the National caucus.” He has such timing and such judgment! 
But finally the main bit of evidence is that Bill English is on the move—watch him. This week today and last week the man has been putting out press statements at exactly the same rate as the leader. He is working hard. He is taking an active role in House procedures. He is taking it to the Government. It is true that his allegations in the education portfolio are misleading—or sometimes worse than that—but he is active and engaged and his activity is planned and strategic. Bill English is waiting. He knows that his time is coming again and he has one fact at the very front of his mind. It is this: about a year ago Bill English lost the National Party leadership by mistake. Do people remember the rat pack the Bill English camp celebrating the night before and losing the following day? Do they remember the effect on the caucus in general and on Nick Smith in particular? Do they remember the questions about who voted for whom and whether the senior whip had done the right thing? Do we all remember all that? It was a mistake. That was why they were celebrating the night before. What happened was that a number of the caucus who wanted to support Bill English also wanted to run him close teach him a lesson and sharpen him up a bit. What happened was that they did not tell each other. It was a mistake. He is coming back. 
Debate interrupted.