Smith Nick: General Debate 
Smith Nick: General Debate 
[Volume:669;Page:15739] 
Hon Dr NICK SMITH (Minister for the Environment) 
: 
 Last night in the House Labour members were gloating about their fantastic success in the Mana by-election. They said: “We won. You lost. Eat that!”. But I think that that arrogance—and frankly the speech just made by Pete Hodgson—shows that Labour has learnt absolutely nothing since its defeat in the 2008 election. 
I would like to be helpful today so I will explain to Labour what a 6.6 percent swing to the Government means for that party. With information from the Parliamentary Library I remind my colleagues that Labour would lose half the constituency seats it currently holds if there were a 6.6 percent swing to National. Let us go through the affected members: Clayton Cosgrove Chris Hipkins Nanaia Mahuta Brendon Burns Iain Lees-Galloway Parekura Horomia Grant Robertson Ruth Dyson David Cunliffe and Trevor Mallard. Every one of those 10 members opposite would be goners if the result in the Mana by-election were translated into a general election. 
But it is worse than that. I asked the Parliamentary Library to provide the percentages of the swings in every single by-election during my lifetime and I managed to get through the 16 by-elections and to compare them with the Mana result. I found out that when National was in Government in Taranaki - King Country there was a negative swing of 18 percent; in Wellington Central it was minus 3 percent and it was minus 8 percent in the Selwyn by-election. I went all the way back to Timaru where there was a 16 percent swing against the Government. I can go back to Christchurch Central in 1979 where there was an 8.5 percent swing against the then Rob Muldoon - led Government. I can even go back to my own constituency of Nelson. There was a by-election there in 1976—a similar time after Robert Muldoon had been elected—and in that by-election the National Government went backwards. In every single by-election for 35 years the swing has been against the Government. So a 6.6 swing to National is an incredible result for Hekia Parata and the John Key - led Government. 
Let us look at the history of Mana. We can go back through the 2008 2005 2002 and 1999 elections. I can find no result in seven electoral reports that shows anything less than a 3500 majority for Labour in that seat which makes the “1080” result—appropriately named—a truly remarkable result. 
It is interesting: what did the president of the Labour Party say about the Mana by-election? He said that Labour supporters have to look a little bit aghast at the result. But what did Phil Goff say? He said it was a resounding victory. I have to say that a resounding victory of a 6.6 percent swing against the Labour Party actually shows just how out of touch members opposite are. 
The reality is that that by-election was a ringing endorsement of Hekia Parata as a fantastic candidate and member of this House. But most important it was an endorsement of a Prime Minister who is focused on the issues that matter—not the sort of stuff that Pete Hodgson talked about—and a Government that is delivering for New Zealand in some of the most difficult economic times. I simply say to Labour members opposite that rather than the rhetoric we get of “We won. You Lost. Eat That!” it is time for Labour to learn some lessons because the Mana by-election was a rejection of the Phil Goff - led Labour Party.