Shaw James: Oral Questions — Questions to MinistersText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeShaw James: Oral Questions — Questions to Ministers[Sitting date: 15 March 2016. Volume:712;Page:9652. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]4.JAMES SHAW (Co-Leader—Green) to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements?Rt Hon JOHN KEY (Prime Minister): Yes. I stand by the statements I make.James Shaw: When he said on Radio New Zealand yesterday that he thought that between 5 to 10 percent of dairy farmers could fail what specific advice reports or evidence was he drawing upon?Rt Hon JOHN KEY: I would ask the member to table the quote where I said that.James Shaw: I seek leave to table a link to the Radio New Zealand website. [Interruption]Mr SPEAKER: I am trying to help the member. It needs to be a bit more specific than that. If the member can table a specific—Grant Robertson: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker.Mr SPEAKER: I am actually dealing with a point of order.Grant Robertson: I can assist the House.Mr SPEAKER: That would be very nice.Grant Robertson: I seek the leave of the House to table a printout from the Radio New Zealand website entitled “Low milk prices wiping farmers out” at 7.18 p.m. yesterday—Mr SPEAKER: Order! The document has been described in this case because there is quite a lot of discussion about it. I am going to put the leave and it will be over to the House to decide. Leave is sought to table that particular transcript from Radio New Zealand. Is there any objection? There is not. It can be tabled.Rt Hon JOHN KEY: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. It is not a transcript and Radio New Zealand corrected their story later on. I have never said that.Mr SPEAKER: Order! The difficulty is—[Interruption] Order! Prime Minister if you want to remain for question time stop interjecting while I am on my feet. The difficulty here is I took it to be a transcript and I described it as such when I put the leave. I therefore think you need to re-describe the document and then I will put the leave because the House has a right to know what it is agreeing to table.Grant Robertson: I seek the leave of the House to table a report from the Radio New Zealand website entitled “Low milk prices wiping farmers out”. Shall I give the time Mr Speaker?Mr SPEAKER: You did earlier. It was 7 o’clock in the morning.Grant Robertson: It was 7.18 p.m.Mr SPEAKER: It was 7.18 p.m. It is a report from the website. On that basis I will still put the leave. It is over to the House what it decides. Leave is sought to table it. Is there any objection? There is objection. [Interruption] Order! The level of interjection is far too high. When I am rising to my feet and calling for members to cease yelling at each other they are not doing so. I am looking now for someone to make an example of from anywhere in this House and I will not hesitate to use that person for such a purpose.James Shaw: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. Given that I did not receive an answer to the question would you like me to rephrase my initial supplementary question?Mr SPEAKER: It is so long past; I think that might be fair. I will allow the member to do so.James Shaw: When he spoke on Radio New Zealand yesterday about the percentage of dairy farmers who could fail what specific advice reports or evidence was he drawing upon?Rt Hon JOHN KEY: The way the member asks is exactly the right question. The point I made yesterday is that I do not know the numbers. What I said was that the advice I had had from the bank chief executive officers whom I had spoken to indicated it was a much smaller number than the 25 percent that Radio New Zealand was presenting it as.James Shaw: What number not what percentage is he expecting to fail from this dairy downturn?Rt Hon JOHN KEY: I would not have a clue. In the end it is ultimately a matter between the banks and the individual farmers. There is no doubt that some farmers are likely to suffer and have foreclosure because that happens actually in any one given year even in very high payouts. But I suspect that the numbers will be less than what people think because the banks are going to work very constructively with them as best they can.James Shaw: How many small businesses is he expecting to fail as a result of this dairy downturn?Rt Hon JOHN KEY: Again I do not know directly. I do not think anyone would know that number. But what I do know is the economy is growing strongly. Actually business confidence is strong. Treasury predictions are that growth will be between 2.5 and 3 percent. The Reserve Bank itself has indicated that they are growing more strongly. But I will say this. The member represents the Green Party. It wants to put a far higher emissions trading system charge on farmers. That certainly will make them go under.James Shaw: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. My question was fairly brief and it was a factual question. It was not I think broad enough to invite broad insults from the Prime Minister.Mr SPEAKER: The question was brief. It was certainly answered in the initial part of the answer. There was no need for the Prime Minister to then drift into criticising Green Party policy.James Shaw: How many rural retailers is he expecting to fail as a result of this dairy downturn?Rt Hon JOHN KEY: Again I do not know. But what I do know is that the economy is growing. It is creating jobs unemployment is falling regional growth has actually been strong around New Zealand and it is a highly diversified economy. I mean you have a record number of tourists coming to New Zealand going to small and regional New Zealand and overall actually business confidence has been very high. If you have a look at the indicators of right and the indicators of wrong indicative of where the country is going it is significantly positive that the country thinks it is going in the right direction. So there are many factors in a highly diversified economy like we have. At the moment dairy prices are lower but beef prices are higher. Some years ago kiwifruit growers—Mr SPEAKER: Order! The answer is long enough.James Shaw: What is the scale of risk to Fonterra and the banks in the financial sector as a result of this dairy downturn?Rt Hon JOHN KEY: I again do not have that information but I do know that the Reserve Bank some years ago—I think last year actually—did some modelling on a downturn in dairy prices where it looked at a 40 percent reduction in land prices and indicated that banks were resilient enough for that. We are seeing virtually no reduction in land prices at the moment.James Shaw: When a Federated Farmers poll shows that 11 percent of dairy farmers are under pressure from banks when farm consultant Peter Fraser warns that 25 percent of farmers are vulnerable when the Reserve Bank advice predicts that up to 44 percent of dairy farm loans will become non-performing and the accounting software company Mind Your Own Business says that up to 100000 businesses will suffer does he now think that this is a threat to the whole economy?Rt Hon JOHN KEY: No I do not think that it is a threat to the whole economy. I think it certainly puts pressure on dairy farmers. But it is quite simple. If the member genuinely has concern for the dairy farmers of New Zealand then support the Trans-Pacific Partnership support irrigation support Resource Management Act reform make sure you do not put excess—James Shaw: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker.Rt Hon JOHN KEY: I have not finished my answer.Mr SPEAKER: I will hear the point of order.James Shaw: Again my question was not about Green Party policy. It was about the risk to the New Zealand economy. [Interruption]Mr SPEAKER: Order! When I consider the breadth of the question it was a very long question. There was a lot of information that the member took the opportunity to put into the question. It gives the Prime Minister a wider gambit in which to answer the question. Does the Prime Minister have anything further—to conclude?Rt Hon JOHN KEY: I was listing a series of different things that would actually help dairy farmers. There are certain things that the Government cannot control as I said earlier: commodity prices the weather exchange rates. But there are things that we can control as a Parliament so if this Parliament wants to support dairy farmers let us do the things that actually can support them. But as long as political parties oppose those things then you will not be able to help them and you should not pretend that you are.