Goldsmith Paul; Williams PotoHon PAUL GOLDSMITH (National): Thank you Madam Assistant Speaker. That truly was an extraordinary speech from the previous speaker Deborah Russell. I think every New Zealander who's driving home in their car this evening has just been maligned by that member as somehow being an evil person who wants to burn the Earth when most people just want to go home to their family and to their loved ones and have their dinner but not according to that member.The most simple thing that any New Zealander can expect from their Government is that when that Government makes a major decision that affects their lives and their ability to earn a living and has big consequences for the economy which sustains jobs the ability to afford healthcare and welfare for those in need the education system—decisions of major economic consequence—the only thing that people can expect from their Government is that that Government will take those decisions seriously and will ask for basic advice about what we are going to get as a benefit as a result of that change and how much it is going to cost the economy. That's the most basic thing that New Zealanders can expect from their Government and on this bill this Government has failed all New Zealanders by that measure. This bill is an act of economic vandalism by a Government that cares only about what the Prime Minister will look like in a global photo opportunity. We have often wondered how much Jacinda Ardern is prepared to pay for a global photo opportunity and we now know what the answer to that is $8 billion. That is what she is prepared to pay for her global media opportunity.Let's go through the risks and the things that you would expect the Government to be asking their officials to quantify and work out. They made the announcement they said they were going to do it the week before the Prime Minister went offshore and now we have legislation that is implementing that decision that they've announced. They didn't take it through Cabinet at the time they announced it when they committed to it. The previous speaker talked about keeping promises; well there was no promise during the election that they were going to do this. The New Zealand First Party which is part of the coalition—it's not the leader of the coalition but it's part of the coalition—certainly said anything but that they were going to cut down oil and gas. So there are no promises being kept here in this legislation; it's something that's been dreamt up.What are the things that they need to check? Well there's the opportunity cost to the Crown in terms of forgone royalties. The Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment officials went away after the decision was made and had to go and do a regulatory impact statement to work out these costs. It's very hard to determine the exact figure but the middle range is about $7.9 billion lost over the next 30 years in terms of Crown revenue. OK so that's not insignificant I would have thought—quite a significant sum. Secondly there's obviously the cost to the petroleum producers in terms of their forgone profits and I suppose the Government doesn't care anything about them. Then thirdly there's the cost to national and regional economies in terms of the economic contribution of the petroleum sector. We've heard of the thousands and thousands of jobs—good paying jobs—that are sustained by this sector and they are being put at risk.Time and time again we hear from the Government Oh no there's nothing to worry about here. There's still all this area that is open for exploration and we're only talking about the new areas that we're not going to do." But they surely don't believe that because what has happened with this decision is that a signal has been sent—a very powerful signal from this Government—that they do not want oil and gas. We've heard from the speeches on the other side that this is all about burning the Earth and that fossil fuels are evil and we're not going to support them. So any prospective driller or prospector for oil and gas based throughout the world—they're global companies; they're looking about where to invest their next dollar and there are many places that they can do that—looks at New Zealand and sees a difficult geology miles away from anywhere. They were prepared to make that investment when they had a Government that was predictable and supportive of the industry and reasonable but they see this Government and they see anything but that. They see no process they see a rabid Government which is only concerned about virtue signalling and they think "Well why on earth would we make any extra investment in this area when we don't know even if we find any oil the next decision-making process? It's opaque and vague and cannot be trusted." So that has a real chilling effect on future investment in this sector.Of course you'll hear from some of the players that are invested in the industry right here right now. They're not going to turn around and say that the world's going to come to an end because they need to keep working and they need to keep maintaining the investment they've already made. But make no doubt: this will have massive consequences for the Taranaki economy particularly. I'm staggered and shocked to see the New Zealand First members in the House supporting this bill. We hear Shane Jones trumpeting around the provinces like an elephant as he does claiming to be the champion of the regions and thinking that handing out $50000 here and $100000 there to look at hydrogen is somehow going to make up for the millions and millions of dollars that have been sucked out of the Taranaki region and put at risk by this decision making—this decision making that they supported only in return for the waka-jumping bill that we've had the shambles of today to be carried through this House another dirty deal in this Government.Then we have to deal with the question of security and affordability of supply. Every New Zealander who struggles right now to pay their electricity and gas bills and to get through the long winter and figure out how to make ends meet has to be aware that this decision right here right now—this bill—will undoubtedly make their energy bills higher in the years to come because it reduces the potential—Hon Dr David Clark: What a load of rubbish!Hon PAUL GOLDSMITH: It's not a load of rubbish. So the Minister of Health who goes on about people's health and well-being is supporting a bill which will make it more expensive for frail and struggling New Zealanders in their homes to keep their homes warm.Hon Dr David Clark: What rot!Hon PAUL GOLDSMITH: It's true. It is absolutely true because if you are determined to withdraw over time gas from the production of electricity in this country then where will it come from? Are we going to build more dams? I'd be interested to see how that's going to get past the Greens. Are we going to build more dams? We might have a bit more geothermal electricity but that's not going to fill the void. You might have a whole lot of wind turbines on every hill in the country but that doesn't help you when the wind's not blowing does it? So how on earth are we going to get the electricity? Well you have to massively overbuild electricity generating capacity.We could perhaps cope with all this if there was an overwhelming benefit to the economy. I started off by saying that what you would expect from any half-respectable Government before they made a major decision like this is that they would get decent analysis working out what the cost is going to be which they haven't but at least they'd also have some decent analysis working out what the benefits would be. And what are the benefits? Well none—none whatsoever for the environment. What we see is that it's more likely to lead to more global emissions. Why is that? If you're concerned about reducing New Zealand's impact on the environment then you focus on the demand side. You want to reduce the demand from New Zealanders for fossil fuels and that's what you would focus on if you were trying to reduce New Zealand's impact but that's not what this bill is about. It's trying to squeeze the supply.Well if New Zealanders still want to drive their cars and they still want to use their electricity based on gas and they still want to cook their dinners based on gas the only consequence is that we'll have to import that gas from offshore. And that will lead to more emissions as all that gas is carried at great expense across the Tasman from Australia or wherever. And then if we can't produce the methanol which has created many many jobs well then it will be produced somewhere else based on gas. So the analysis that was done—a pretty short analysis; it should have been done before the decision was made—shows that it will have a negative effect on the environment.So what have we got? We've got a bill that is going to cost New Zealanders billions and billions of dollars remove opportunities from New Zealand families to get ahead make it more expensive for them to live their ordinary lives and with no decent environmental outcome. I cannot understand why anybody on that side of the House would vote for this bill and if they do—ASSISTANT SPEAKER (Poto Williams): I apologise to the member. Your time has expired."