Upston Louise; Sepuloni CarmelHon LOUISE UPSTON (National—Taupō): Thank you Madam Chair. I've got a series of questions to the Minister as you could probably expect. For those who have just started watching this debate it might seem a bit strange to be debating the Estimates when we've actually gone well past that because of COVID lockdowns. This special debate does allow questioning of the Minister but the reality is it's after the fact.So I want to start with questions to the Minister around long-term benefit data. What we've seen in the time since Labour has come to office is a significant increase in the number of people on benefits overall but significantly on job seeker. And I do want to put on record this started well before COVID so this is not COVID related. What we're seeing is a large number of people who are on job seeker benefit and are staying there longer. So 53000 are now on the job seeker benefit for more than a year. And while we accept the Government has made a decision to increase benefits National is very clearly focused on supporting people into employment and that's why I want to start my questioning on job seeker numbers.So I want to know: what is the answer Minister for why there are 53000 more on the job seeker benefit—and have been for more than a year—under her watch? Do you want me to keep going? I thought the idea was that we do interactive questions but if you want me to make a speech then I'll continue to do that. So what we have seen just in terms of the scale of the problem because while we accept the welfare system supports people in their time of need there are a group of people who require support permanently. The much larger group are people who need support for a temporary period of time. Those are the ones that this side of the House is the most concerned about. That's why we are asking questions about long-term benefit numbers.I was interested in the chair of the select committee reflecting on a question that was put to the Minister in Estimates that actually we didn't get an answer for at the time. So it's why I am wanting an answer today. Looking at those who are on job seeker benefit for more than a year—where there is now 53000 more who've been on for more than a year—what in this Budget that is different from any other Budget will provide support for those people to be in employment?Hon CARMEL SEPULONI (Minister for Social Development and Employment): OK thanks Madam Chair. I'll try and address the questions in the two sets of questions that the member asked. Firstly I just want to make the point that actually when COVID hit last year the prospects with regards to the forecast numbers of people that were going to be on benefit were actually quite frightening. I think when we got the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update figures before the 2020 Budget there were anticipated to be around 490000 people peaking in January 2021. Each time there's been a reset of those forecasts—so with the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update with the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update that has been reduced. However we haven't reached any of the forecast peaks that were anticipated by Treasury's forecasts and I think that really is a testament to how well despite the challenges New Zealand has weathered this pandemic storm.Currently we have about 355000 people that are on benefit. Prior to this 14-week lockdown it was about 351000 people. So despite even the anticipated impacts of this period of time where we anticipated a knock to economic activity we still haven't experienced the lows that were possible when we came into this particular lockdown. The member's not wrong; since pre-COVID they have gone up. I think at the beginning of last year there were about 302000 people on benefit. And of course at the moment it is 355000.What we had done was even going back to pre-pandemic pre-COVID we had invested a significant amount of money through Budget 2019 to bolster the front-line support for work focus through the Ministry of Social Development. And what I saw when I became Minister was that previously under the former Government there had been a steady decline in the work-focused case management and little to no—or even less—investment in that side of the operations for the Ministry of Social Development. Hardship had gone up and the resource in case management had to pivot to respond to the hardship that was there. But then there was nothing put in place with respect to the actual case management for work focus. So we invested in 2019 we invested again last year and we continue to invest in this—it's been a priority for our Government.One of our focuses—before I sit down otherwise I'm going to go on far too much—has been on ensuring those who have lost jobs during COVID are supported immediately to get back into employment as soon as possible. We know that that's important not only for their own livelihoods and the livelihoods of their families but because of the fact that research shows the longer that they are on benefit the more difficult it will be to be able to get back into the employment market. It has been heartening to see then that for the majority of this year the exits off benefit into employment have been higher than what we have seen since electronic records were kept for the Ministry of Social Development.So there certainly have been some relief moments I think over the course of the last year and a half. Moving forward we'll continue that focus in investment with the absolute priority being about families and ensuring that—where they are able to work—we are supporting them into employment.Hon LOUISE UPSTON (National—Taupō): Thank you Madam Chair. Unfortunately the Minister didn't really address the question I specifically asked and while I'll accept that none of the forecasts a year ago eventuated that's great news what it also means though on the flipside is that we would have expected to actually see some progress in those who have been long-term job seekers when we haven't; we've seen the opposite result.In addition to that the Minister talks about Budget 29 delivering more work focus—well why is it then Minister that there is now 53000 more people who have been on job seeker for more than a year despite those two things?And the third element that comment around hardship was high when Labour came to power well it's at record levels now. So Ministry of Social Development (MSD) staff are still dealing with significant levels of hardship.So of the programmes that are funded through MSD what is the most successful for people who have been on the unemployment benefit for more than 12 months? Because the research says the longer somebody is on benefit—and three months is the best time; 12 months makes it incredibly difficult to reconnect someone to the labour force. Which of the funded employment programmes are actually delivering results? Because it's not just about how much money you can spend; it's about results. We want to see people in employment for themselves and their families. So which employment programmes that have been funded in Budget 2021 is delivering for those who are long-term unemployed?Hon CARMEL SEPULONI (Minister for Social Development and Employment): Just quickly if we look at Flexi-wage and just acknowledging the fact that we as a Government have expanded that quite extensively what we have already seen with Flexi-wage is around 9000 people benefit from Flexi-wage. Of those since expansion 1257 have taken up Flexi-wage. That's 1257 who have a two-plus year duration on benefit. That is almost double what had happened in the same period the year before. So that is one of many examples of where our investments are working.I also want to acknowledge the reinstatement of the training incentive allowance. With regards to that we actually will see those beneficiaries stay on benefit. However whilst on benefit of course they will be supported financially to be able to take up study up to degree level and that is important as well. It is about ensuring that people get access to the upskilling and training opportunities so that they can get into mahi that works for them and hopefully means that they've got better income to be able to support themselves and their families.