Mallard Trevor: Budget Debate 
Mallard Trevor: Budget Debate 
[Volume:626;Page:21084] 
Hon TREVOR MALLARD (Minister of Education) 
: 
 Mr Assistant Speaker you would have seen a slight reluctance for me to get to my feet and it was not only because the very good speech made by the member was being interrupted—a speech that was a few facts short but generally much more constructive than many—but also because I knew that the next slot which I am taking is allocated to the Maori Party. Now there might be something incongruous about me taking the spot that is allocated to the Maori Party and some people might see some irony in this particular occasion. But I am quite happy to say that if Tariana Turia does not want to use her slot I am very happy to do so because I think it is important that the perspectives of people whether they are indigenous to Whanganui or indigenous to Wainuiomata are put to this House. 
The Maori Party for the second time in the Budget debate has failed to take the call. I will not comment on absence from or presence in the House Mr Assistant Speaker but it has failed to take the call for a second time. It has only one member. It is not a hard thing to do. One has to turn up to the House stand up at the right time say “Mr Speaker” then one has 10 minutes to lay out the policy of one’s party or make other comments on the Budget. Can Tariana Turia turn up to the House take the call stand up and give us 10 minutes on policy? No she cannot. That is just typical of a lazy approach to parliamentary life—someone who does not pull her weight in Parliament and I think it is very very sad. 
Turning to the Budget I want to acknowledge and welcome Maurice Williamson to the House a member who should be a front-bench member. If National did things on talent there is no doubt that Maurice Williamson would be seated on the front bench. In fact he would probably be seated in one of the two seats occupied by the leader and the deputy leader if it were done on talent. 
Pita Paraone 
: Both of the seats! 
Hon TREVOR MALLARD 
: Both of the seats by golly! Well he certainly has more talent than the pair of them put together. But on the basis of appointments in the National Party that does not necessarily guarantee promotion and on occasion the willingness of someone to be frank and truthful with their leadership results in him or her being pushed further back. National is a party that does not really allow for discussion and debate around policy. It does not allow for the promotion of talent. It is more about who the leader’s mates are or who in this particular case yells and screams and makes the loudest noises— 
Darren Hughes 
: Throws pensioners downstairs. 
Hon TREVOR MALLARD 
: Throws pensioners downstairs. 
Darren Hughes 
: Watch out Dr Brash! 
Hon TREVOR MALLARD 
: Well that is slightly unfair although I saw a very good  
Facelift 
 last night. I thought  
Facelift  
was wonderful. For those people who do not know it is on Television One just before the news. It has masks and in this particular case they had someone with the body shape of Gerry Brownlee wearing the Don Brash mask and he made a lot more sense than the person who was just wearing the Don Brash mask without the Gerry Brownlee body. Maybe that is true; maybe it is their intention to hide Don Brash away during the campaign and let Gerry Brownlee pretend to be their leader. But I am still running my book on the National Party and who will be the leader in October. Currently I would say it is running pretty evenly at three to two John Key and Bill English. I note that Maurice Williamson is nodding. I think he nodded more at John Key than Bill English—I think that is probably right. But it was a three to two combination and the most favoured combination is John Key as leader and Bill English as his deputy. Bill English is someone who is sitting there who can organise and do the work who was not a bad deputy in the past—but who certainly has about the same charisma as Don Brash so there is not much future in him. John Key is the “Flash Harry” of the National Party who has been rapidly promoted. One thing I do know is that when he is the Leader of the Opposition after the election he will bring Maurice Williamson up to the front bench because he recognises talent. 
What we are waiting for—and I was waiting for it right through Don Brash’s speech—is a bit of policy. Don Brash should just tell us about the tax cuts. He said that the changes would be there by Christmas. Now he says that they will not be there by Christmas. I want to know how much the cuts will be. Is it true that he will promise $50 a worker—$50 a person? That is $5 billion worth of tax cuts every year. That is what I am told he would do—$50 for every family. If that is true $5 billion has to be collected from somewhere. Where will it be collected from? Will it be about half the Health vote? Will he cut half the Education vote? He could not possibly cut out $5 billion without affecting pensions. 
Georgina Beyer 
: Oh yes he could. 
Hon TREVOR MALLARD 
: I do not think he could do it without affecting pensions. He would have to cut pensions. He has wandered around and so far I think he has promised another $3 billion or $4 billion worth of roads. The transport spokesperson Maurice Williamson nods. It will be another $3 billion or $4 billion of roads over a 3-year period. In that case some pretty substantial cuts will have to occur. If National is not going to do the cuts then it will add to the debt. It will be $5 billion in the first year $10 billion in the second year $15 billion in the third year and $20 billion in the fourth year. Anyone who has a mortgage should be very very afraid of that sort of policy. It would be the sort of policy that would move mortgage rates not 1 percent but a lot more than that. We would be back to the days of double-digit mortgages in New Zealand with a responsible Governor of the Reserve Bank and a very very loose fiscal policy. That is the choice. 
So what are the National members going to do? My view is that although they might give the $5 billion of tax cuts they will not only give one family $50 but they will take $150 off the most worthy families—those that are getting family support from this Government in the changes that are occurring over a period of time. They will take some of it back. So maybe interest rates will not hit 12 or 13 percent; they might stay just in double digits. I think that is an indictment on them. What they want to do is give a lot of funds to their very very rich mates through a change in the tax rates. They want to give the average income earner $50 a week. But to give $50 a week requires roughly a $5 billion hole. The idea that anyone could do that without cuts is just not a reason— 
Darren Hughes 
: They haven’t denied it in the whole Budget debate. 
Hon TREVOR MALLARD 
: No none of them has. In fact Maurice Williamson has spent much of this speech nodding in agreement with the comments I have made. I know that that member is not asleep because he is smiling. He does not have many pleasant dreams—especially as part of that caucus. I just want to ask how many members are prepared to bet on Don Brash being the leader of the National Party come Christmas. Not one! Not a single National Party member is prepared to commit himself or herself to believing that Don Brash will be the leader of the National Party come Christmas. National is a sad party. But even a sad and divided National Party of the past would have had a pretence of unity. Those members have lost it. It has gone and so is Don Brash.