Robertson Grant: Oral Questions — Questions to Ministers Questions to MembersText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeRobertson Grant: Oral Questions — Questions to Ministers Questions to Members[Sitting date: 06 May 2015. Volume:705;Page:3223. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]7.GRANT ROBERTSON (Labour—Wellington Central)to the Minister of Finance: Does he stand by all his answers to Oral Question No. 12 yesterday?Hon BILL ENGLISH (Minister of Finance):Yes and I particularly stand by my statement where I said that I stand by my statements.Grant Robertson: Has he received forecasts from Treasury that show a deficit for the 2015-16 year?Hon BILL ENGLISH: As I have indicated a number of times the forecasts in the Budget are likely to show compared with the half-yearly update a slightly increased deficit for 2014-15 and lower surpluses for 2015-16.Grant Robertson: I seek leave of the House to table an Official Information Act document released by Treasury dated 7 November 2014 which forecasts a deficit for the 2015-16 year.Mr SPEAKER: Leave is sought to table that particular Official Information Act document. Is there any objection? There is none. It can be tabled.Document by leave laid on the Table of the House.Grant Robertson: Is it correct that Treasury advised him that even if he made the cuts to the Budget forward-spending allowance that he did the surplus in 2015-16 would happen only if the fall in dairy prices significantly rebounded?Hon BILL ENGLISH: Treasury may have given that advice at some stage; I do not recall it. What I can tell the member is that the Budget is a fairly dynamic process—that is it is an interaction of Government decision-making and new information—and he will just have to wait for the Budget later in May to see exactly where Treasury and the Government ended up.Grant Robertson: In light of that answer does the Minister recall paragraph (e) of the paper dated 7 November 2014 which says that a Budget surplus in 2015-16 could happen only assuming dairy prices rebound as currently forecast?Hon BILL ENGLISH: No I do not recall that particular paragraph and in any case I would not say the advice is wrong; I would say it is partial. As we have discussed in the House before there are a lot of factors that lead to the operating balance of the Government—the whole sweep of $73 billion of expenditure and what is happening with that—and as we have discussed a lot over the last couple of weeks other factors that were not known in November such as the inflation rate being a lot lower than expected and the impact of that on the total size of the economy.Grant Robertson: Is he aware of the Goldman Sachs report from July last year that indicated that there was a 5-year global milk glut and that with the further fall in milk prices last night there is now a $7 billion hole in the New Zealand economy and did he take that into account when assessing whether a surplus was possible in 2015-16 even with a reduction in spending?Hon BILL ENGLISH: There have been any number of reports about where dairy prices might or might not go but I am a bit surprised at the Opposition attitude because those members are usually advocating that we have too much dairy and so presumably they are pleased when the prices are lower and the industry is not doing so well.Grant Robertson: Is it correct that not only has he failed to deliver his promised surplus for 7 years but he is actually on track to fail for an eighth year in 2015-16 unless there is a major rebound in global dairy prices which no one is predicting?Hon BILL ENGLISH: No but I can tell you that 8 years of political failure by the Labour Party must be a lot more painful.