Copeland Gordon: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to Ministers 
Copeland Gordon: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to Ministers 
[Volume:609;Page:6628] 
2.  
GORDON COPELAND (United Future) 
 to the  
Minister of Finance 
: Is he confident that the growth targets projected in this year’s Budget can be met; if so why? 
Hon Dr MICHAEL CULLEN (Minister of Finance) 
: 
 Strictly speaking the Budget sets growth forecasts rather than growth targets. At present I see no reason to believe that they will not be met. 
Gordon Copeland 
: Is the Minister concerned that significant effects on the economy such as job losses and reduced consumer demand will result from the downturn in the export education industry which is currently our fourth-biggest foreign exchange earner at $1.8 billion per annum given that the number of student visa applications from China Taiwan and Hong Kong in March were down 30 percent on last year; if so what solution does he propose? 
Hon Dr MICHAEL CULLEN 
: Yes. That has already been the subject of some discussion at Cabinet committee level. The Minister of Education has reported that significant efforts are being put in to widen the catchment areas for overseas education away from an over-dependence on the North Asian markets. 
Mark Peck 
: What is the growth forecast track in the Budget and how much confidence does the Minister have in it? 
Hon Dr MICHAEL CULLEN 
: The Budget forecast growth of 2.2 percent in the 2003-04 year followed by in effect 3.2 3.1 and 2.8 percent. The risks which were on the downside at the time of the drawing up of those forecasts have significantly reduced particularly around severe acute respiratory syndrome the electricity situation and the performance of the United States economy. 
Hon David Carter 
: Why should New Zealanders have any faith in his Government achieving even Budget forecasts particularly given Business and Economic Research Ltd’s release yesterday which said: “Economic mismanagement has choked out a perfectly sound period of growth and we are in for 2 to 3 years of a stalled economy.”? 
Hon Dr MICHAEL CULLEN 
: A slow-down to 2.2 percent growth will by international standards still be a very high level. Most of Europe is forecast to have growth of about 1 percent or less over the coming year. Of course part of that criticism was based on a view that the Reserve Bank Governor was operating monetary policy too tightly. It is clear that the present Governor loosened monetary policy earlier than his predecessor would have done. 
Gordon Copeland 
: Even if foreign students can be sourced from countries outside Asia and assuming that terrorist threats to travellers and a high dollar prove to be temporary dampeners on the export education industry does he agree that negative reports in the international media on our attitude to foreigners arising from New Zealand First’s xenophobic policy line pose a more enduring problem for the economy? 
Hon Dr MICHAEL CULLEN 
: I think there is little doubt that adverse reports of that sort do badly affect that industry. 
Rt Hon Winston Peters 
: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. 
Mr SPEAKER 
: I want to say that on reflection that question had an unnecessary comment in it. I would like the member now to ask it without that reference to New Zealand First in it so that I can hear it fully. Please re-ask the question. The Minister is not responsible for New Zealand First policy. 
Gordon Copeland 
: Even if foreign students can be sourced from countries outside Asia and assuming that terrorist threats to travellers and a high dollar prove to be temporary dampeners on the export education industry does he agree that negative reports in the international media on our attitude to foreigners pose a more enduring problem for the economy? 
Hon Dr MICHAEL CULLEN 
: Yes. That kind of negative reporting about our attitude to foreigners does not affect just the export education industry; I think it affects our general trade and investment relationships. 
Gordon Copeland 
: As State schools also rely on the income provided by foreign fee-paying students to finance capital works and extra staff has he made provision for additional pressure on the education budget as a result of the downturn in the export education industry? 
Hon Dr MICHAEL CULLEN 
: No not at this point because it is expected that the impact on the secondary system is not likely to be great in the short term as there will be students continuing on from previous years. But clearly we do keep monitoring the situation. It is one of significant concern to the Government.