Willis NicolaNICOLA WILLIS (Deputy Leader—National): I welcome this opportunity so rare in this House to talk about the long-term picture for New Zealand 40 years into the future the fiscal position which we will have. We do so because of the Public Finance Act 1989 which in a very sensible move requires Governments every four years to have an appraisal of the long-term fiscal position to consider the trends the risks the opportunities the choices that we are making today and the choices we are potentially taking away from future generations or adding for future generations. It is engaging in that big picture that we can have discussion about intergenerational equity about demographic trends and about the economic opportunities and threats that present themselves to New Zealand. As we have that discussion I am reminded of what greeted National when we took office in 2008—and that was the New Zealand Treasury forecasting a decade of deficits with net debt blowing out to 60 percent of GDP. I am reminded of the actions taken by successive Ministers to ensure that New Zealand could put itself in a much better position than that to allow us to be in a position such that when the global pandemic struck the Government we have in front of us today was able to make choices about the way it used its fiscal position. That is why we have these discussions—because the choices that Governments make today about spending will impact the resilience and ability of future generations to cope with shocks and to have good options for the public services and amenity available to New Zealand families.We are today in a situation where there are different ways that debt can be managed. One way—and this is the way that the current Minister of Finance has chosen—is to rely on tax revenue windfalls helped by massive inflation. That is an option that this Minister of Finance has taken and we on this side of the House are concerned about the implications that has. The balance we would like to see the Government opposite strike is a better one that says not only how can New Zealand households take some of the pain of inflation and a rising cost of living but what it is that every Minister sitting around that Cabinet table will do to ensure better value out of the expenditure that New Zealand is already doing. What is it that every Minister sitting around the Cabinet table will do to ensure that they are getting maximum bang for the taxpayer dollars they are using on New Zealanders' behalf? This 40-year appraisal reminds us of what it is that that money should be being spent on because actually when we look at the demographic challenges we face—the rising cost of superannuation the rising cost of healthcare the challenges that we will face with climate change—it becomes abundantly clear that the only way New Zealand will be able to face these challenges well while taking people with us will be if we have a growing more productive wealthier more prosperous economy. That is why we have a solemn obligation to ensure we are investing in the things today that will allow us to be a wealthier country in the future. Do you know the first place we should start when we are thinking about what we should be investing in today? It is our people. And what is the major tool the State has for investing in the capability of its people? It's our education system. So we should all be very concerned that in New Zealand today not only relative to the countries we like to compare ourselves with but also relative to our historic performance the achievement of New Zealand school students is slipping. It is slipping across those core measures of ability: literacy numeracy skills—reading writing and maths. So when I look ahead 40 years it makes me gravely concerned that there are still thousands of New Zealand schoolchildren who despite being in an education system which has had billions of dollars poured into it are less likely today to get the skills they need to succeed than they were a decade ago. That is the sort of issue that a Minister of Finance who really cares about future generational equity will be focused on. We simply must lift the capability of New Zealand students and that requires a different approach to education policies in our schools. I'm reminded of what the long-term drivers of big spending are. What are the areas that we're going to be spending a lot on as a country into the future? When we look at the bill for welfare we look at the bill for social services and the bill for our justice system then surely we must do more than simply say Oh well we are kind over here on the Government side. We're going to spend a lot more money into that in the future." Because what we say on this side of the House is: what is kind about saying that the State will continue to service the misery of those who are dependent on the State who find themselves in prison who have their human potential cut short? Actually what we should be doing is taking a social investment approach which says "What are the targeted investments and interventions the State can make today to reduce the dependence of people into the future?" That is the kind of thinking that a Minister of Finance who is genuinely concerned about the next 40 years of New Zealand's fiscal position would be thinking about because as the Treasury point out in their report we must consider the cumulative impact of better spending. We must consider not only what it is that we spend more on in the next Budget but what it is we are spending money on today. I would implore of members opposite that they should treat New Zealanders with more respect than saying that anyone who says they think they can get better quality spending is talking about cuts because actually what we are talking about is getting better results and better value. As the Treasury point out in the statement what that requires is a rigour is accountability is a set of performance measures is an ability to drive into the detail of delivery and implementation to ensure that when more money is appropriated from New Zealanders it is actually getting results. Sadly we are not seeing that from this Government. I'm reminded that when National was confronted with that decade of deficits there were choices that needed to be made. One of the choices that could have been made was to allow as I said these windfall tax revenue gains. And when I look at the situation New Zealand faces today I think one of the biggest challenges we have to intergenerational equity is the cost of living crisis that is facing our young people because not only are they now in an environment that the Minister of Finance admitted in question time today where costs are outpacing wages they are also in an environment where house prices have exploded up 40 percent since this Government came in when rents have increased massively and where their choices for their futures are more diminished than generations before.So faced with that the Minister of Finance has different approaches he can take to reducing our debt. He can allow higher inflation to increase the tax revenues to reduce the real value of debt and he can keep on spending into the future. What we on this side of the House say is in a time when people are facing a cost of living that is actively daily weekly diminishing the choices they can make for themselves and their families in the future the Government has a solemn responsibility to do better with the spending it's doing and to ensure that New Zealanders can have more of their own money back. The point of this fiscal debate we are having today is to think about the choices that we make today and the impacts they will have for future generations. Here on this side of the House we are prepared to forecast a couple of things. First of all for New Zealand's superannuation system to be affordable we will have to raise the age of eligibility. We're prepared to forecast that if we want the children of the members opposite to have the choices that they had growing up then they'll need a Minister of Finance that can spend money better. We are prepared to forecast that if we want this country to grow and be more economically prosperous we will have to invest a lot smarter in our education capability in technology and in meeting the challenges of our times. That is what a National Government will do.SPEAKER: The Hon Grant Robertson. [Interruption]Hon Grant Robertson: I don't know what that was about.SPEAKER: That was Mr Bayly—Hon Grant Robertson: Oh right.SPEAKER: —but I gave the call to Mr Robertson."