Tremain Chris: Budget DebateText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeTremain Chris: Budget Debate[Sitting date: 21 May 2014. Volume:699;Page:18190. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]Hon CHRIS TREMAIN (National—Napier): It gave me huge pleasure to return to the Hawke’s Bay after the Budget was announced last Thursday and to share it with family friends and constituents. It was extremely well received in the Hawke’s Bay. People have seen unlike the Opposition how we have gone through a very difficult recession over the last 6 years and how this Government has progressed through that recession and has landed this economy in a superb position to go forward. They are seeing the results of that now in terms of job growth in terms of the economy going forward in leaps and bounds and most particularly in terms of the turn-round in immigration. If there is something that says that this country is going ahead it is when the migration statistics turn round and all of sudden we see net positive migration back to this country.This will be my last Budget debate speech before I leave Parliament. I am extremely proud to have been part of this particular Budget. I am extremely proud to be a New Zealander and extremely proud to be a member of this House and of the National Party supporting this Budget which was delivered last Thursday. National came into Government on the promise of delivering a brighter future. We have delivered that brighter future through our actions over the past 5 years and through the outstanding Budget of which I speak.Do not take just my word for it. International commentators around the globe are watching New Zealand become an economic prosperity story in the South Pacific. Take Standard and Poor’s for instance which cut New Zealand’s credit rating in 2011 after the Canterbury earthquakes and which has now said of this Budget that the Government is on track to meet its targeted operating surplus in 2015 which would improve the fiscal balance consistent with its AA currency rating and stable outlook. That is just one international commentator.Secondly Standard and Poor’s has also said that the Government is consolidating its fiscal position partly reflecting its ongoing efforts to reduce its cost base while maintaining public services. I think that is what Kiwis understand. Throughout the nation be it in Wanganui Auckland or Hawke’s Bay we have got through this without cutting the guts out of public services. We have actually continued to deliver them to make increases particularly in education and health and the public has seen the results of that particularly in the Better Public Services area which Chester Borrows spoke of earlier.In education on which Hekia Parata spoke—in early childhood education and in every area of education we have seen lifts. It is absolutely fantastic. We only have to look across the Ditch to Australia and its comparative Budget to see the chalk and cheese of South Pacific Budgets. On the one hand we have New Zealand which forecasts a $300 million surplus in 2014-15 and as a result provides positive choices for new spending debt reduction and/or potentially tax cuts into the future. On the other hand we have Australia which just a day earlier forecast a $30 billion Budget deficit massive expenditure cuts to its schools hospitals pensions and its foreign aid together with tax increases to arrest the deficit decline. That is the recipe that the Opposition in this House has delivered. That was the position that we came into in 2008 with ever-ongoing deficits forecast. The Australian situation is also the legacy of a Labor-Green Government and of uncontrolled spending. We saw it here when we came into office as I said previously.Putting that aside let us return to our Budget. It looks ahead building on the hard work done by Kiwis to 2 percent to 4 percent economic growth and a $372 million surplus growing to $1.3 billion in 2015-16 and $3.5 billion in 2017-18. That gives us real choices—$1 billion of new spending in this Budget and $1.5 billion in 2015. Government debt will peak at 26.4 percent way below where it was originally forecast in 2008 when we came in. We are seeing wage growth. The average annual wage is up $3000 in the past 2 years and is expected to rise by $7600 to $62300 by 2018. That is positive news. That is the economy going forward. We have also had forecasts of 170000 new jobs over the next 4 years and ACC levy cuts of around $480 million. That is significant. Consumer and business confidence is at an all-time high. That is to be celebrated. But as I said earlier of particular note is the turn-round in migration. If Chester Borrows and Dr Paul Hutchison reflect on where we were at in the mid-2000s the emigration out of this country was dismal. Now we are seeing net positive migration. That is a positive thing.I am particularly proud that as we have got choices we are now delivering for families supporting children and families through this Budget. As the economy grows of course we can deliver more jobs and better wages for those families. In particular there has been a $500 million package of practical support for young families particularly for vulnerable children. That includes free general practitioner visits and free prescriptions for all children under 13 4 extra weeks of paid parental leave increases to the parental tax credit and an additional $155 million for early childhood education. There we are seeing significant rises in Māori and Pacific Island children attending early childhood education and improving their results in school. We are also seeing $33.4 million extra to support vulnerable children which includes eight new Children’s Teams to work with at-risk children.This is a great Budget. It demonstrates a Minister of Finance at the top of his career. I want to congratulate Bill English and his team on their outstanding effort. Name for me a Minister of Finance with a better track record in the world at this point in time. Name for me a better Minister of Finance—I challenge you.The success of this year’s Budget has resulted in some very interesting and immediate political moves across the country and in the provinces. Firstly we saw the very hard-working Darien Fenton decide that she was retiring. Then interestingly we saw a range of Labour candidates announce that they would now not be standing for the list in Hawke’s Bay. Both Stuart Nash and AnnaLorck have announced they will not be seeking a place on Labour’s list.This is very revealing and it can be for one of only two reasons. Firstly they have read the tea leaves and they have realised they will be so far down on the list that they will not have a bolter’s show of getting into Parliament through that door or secondly they have been following the polls they have watched the Budget and where that has landed and they have realised that even with a good list position the chance of them getting into Parliament is remote. So they have decided to go for an all-out constituency—not list—contest. So what we now have if Labour did not already know are a couple of rogue candidates in the bay. Goodbye party vote; hello personal vote. Goodbye party vote; hello personal vote.Here is what is going to happen. Candidates will have wildly different policy positions and they will not put their leader’s photo on their billboards. That is for sure. Consider those billboards because this is where it gets really interesting. Some of you will recall that at the last election Stuart Nash went all out for the electorate vote as well. He thought Labour and its leader were so bad that he would not put Phil Goff on his election billboards. So he did not. Despite this strategy he lost and was tossed out of Parliament. What is the bet he will not put David Cunliffe on his billboards this year?He has got a track record in this space. And what about AnnaLorck? Will she have David Cunliffe on her billboards? Well with tweets like this one: “Can’t waittilCunliff turns up in HB… We haven’t forgotten he sacked our DHB…he’s no leader he’s a bully”—he’s no leader; he’s a bully. What a classic. She also refused to delete those tweets when she was challenged.So here is the wider question: will she put David Cunliffe on her billboards and how many of those in the Opposition will? Will Trevor Mallard put David Cunliffe on his billboards? Just imagine if the hierarchy in the Labour Party allows this to happen around the country. Just imagine if it allows rogue candidates like Nash andLorck to prevail against the unity of the party. If it allows this to happen Labour’s party vote will implode. I predict an absolute whitewash.This is a fantastic Budget. I am proud of what it has delivered for New Zealanders around the country and for families. It is outstanding progress for our country and it is fantastic to see the turn-round in migration. Thank you.