11. Question No. 11—AgricultureTODD MULLER (National—Bay of Plenty) to the Minister of AgricultureQuestion No. 11—Agriculture11. TODD MULLER (National—Bay of Plenty) to the Minister of Agriculture: Does he support the Government's proposed agriculture emissions plan which reportedly could reduce production from sheep and beef farms by 20 percent and does he agree with Federated Farmers that the policy will rip the guts out of small town New Zealand"?Hon DAMIEN O'CONNOR (Minister of Agriculture): Gum sa hum ni da eui jang nim. Last week the Government released our proposal for pricing agricultural emissions. This was effectively the recommendations made by He Waka Eke Noa partnership with some undecided issues to be consulted on. This includes how the levy will be set governance arrangements how farmers and growers will report and pay for emissions and what on-farm actions including sequestration will be recognised. The member appears to be operating under the misconception that the Government's proposed agricultural emissions proposal is drastically different from the partnership's proposal. In fact the Government has accepted nearly all of the recommendations made by the partnership which includes Federated Farmers and this is reflected in our proposal.Todd Muller: Does he stand by his statement when asked if there would be a loss in revenue for sheep and beef farming of 24 percent which would mean $2.9 billion in lost export earnings—and I quote—"Ah well that's a proposition put forward. I'm not OK with that loss and I don't think it will happen."? And if so what loss in export revenue is the Minister OK with?Hon DAMIEN O'CONNOR: I'm not comfortable with any loss of revenue. But I have to say that modelling is made on a large number of assumptions. In fact there was a model put up that presumed and predicted that we would have 10 percent unemployment. That never eventuated. I'm confident that New Zealand farmers can adapt to the challenges in front of them. Can I put too land-use change that we've seen over the years: "Between 1990 and 2021 dairy land use increased 67 percent to 1.7 million hectares assisted by irrigation and traditional sheep farming in areas of north Otago and Canterbury. Over the same period other pastoral grassland predominantly sheep beef and deer declined 36 percent with large areas converted to forestry such as in the Gisborne region as well as urbanisation and reversion to conservation estate. Forestry and horticulture increased 40 percent and 49 percent respectively while arable land reduced 25 percent." We have seen through the decades much land-use change in this country and it's a hallmark of and a credit to all the farmers in our country that they adapt to the challenges ahead of them. And if I can just quote someone Mr Speaker—SPEAKER: No I don't think so.Hon DAMIEN O'CONNOR: It's a very valuable quote.SPEAKER: It might be but you've addressed the question.Todd Muller: Does he stand behind his own Government's report which says net revenue is going to be down 24 percent or does he not? It's his report. Do you support it or not?Hon DAMIEN O'CONNOR: There were two lots of modelling done in the report. In fact the modelling put before it was done by He Waka Eke Noa—the partnership group. The partnership group did the modelling that the member is referring to. I'm not going to challenge the system that they used to develop that outcome but I will say that I believe and I have confidence in the innovation of the farmers of this country. Can I say though regarding climate change because agriculture does form 48 percent of our total emissions "It is the preeminent issue of our generation without doubt and it's the No. 1 issue around the world we have to deal with." That was said by Christopher Luxon on 5 December 2021.Todd Muller: Can he confirm that officials advised the Government that the fall in sheep and beef production under his Government's agricultural emissions plan will increase global emissions and how does shipping production and jobs to less carbon efficient farms overseas solve the climate change problem?Hon DAMIEN O'CONNOR: Can I say regarding displacement of emissions and transfer to other countries there is no clear evidence that that will occur. New Zealand produces enough food for about 40 million people. The reality is that many countries don't want our product. The only place that we will be able to sell our product into will be the high-value discerning markets of the world where climate change is considered the number one issue that we're facing. I stand by our Government's commitment. The National Government in 1997 committed agriculture to our emissions reduction plan. For 25 years we've been grappling with this issue. Many National Party Ministers and members have come and gone in that 25 years. I stand by our commitment to honour what we committed to in 1997 and to deliver a more sustainable future for the farmers of this country.Mark Cameron: Is it fair that even at the low price modelled the tax will raise $220 million but only $70 million is returned to farmers as incentive payments for lower emissions?Hon DAMIEN O'CONNOR: The Government is committed that any revenue raised through this system—and we've got to listen to consultation and feedback and the Government will report back at the end of this year. What we have committed to do is recycle any revenue generated back into the agricultural sector. In fact this Government committed $380 million of taxpayers' money for research and development to assist agriculture to discover the techniques that will move us forward in this area. That's a commitment from the taxpayer. On top of that any revenue generated will all go back into agriculture.Hon Stuart Nash: Does the Minister believe in the primary sector's strategy of a move from volume to values and does addressing the impacts of climate change represent our values and therefore increase the per unit price of our exports?Hon DAMIEN O'CONNOR: I think that anyone who does a market survey of high-value products around the world will realise that the consumers who are purchasing are purchasing for values. They want to know that the product be it shoes or clothing or food is good for them and good for the planet. We will move from volume to values because that's the only place we can be as a nation with a sustainable future in food and fibre production.Todd Muller: Does he believe the proposed Government response to He Waka Eke Noa complies with the Paris Agreement requirement that emissions reductions occur—and I quote—"in a manner that does not threaten food production" when his own officials estimate it will reduce sheep and beef production by over 20 percent?Hon DAMIEN O'CONNOR: I can read out again the land-use change that we've seen across this nation for many many years. I know that we will continue to provide the world with fine quality food and that that land will always be used for productive purposes in a way that maximises the value for the landowner and hopefully for future generations into the future.Hon Kelvin Davis: Does he believe that floods and drought also threaten food production and reduce the net income of farmers?Hon DAMIEN O'CONNOR: Can I say that the member who asked the initial question was at a conference last week where one of the presenters there stated the fact that we have already seen a 20 percent drop in food production from climate change across the globe. If we do not address this issue and do everything we can to reduce global warming the farmers will be the ones who suffer the most."