4. Economy—Business Confidence ReportsHon PAUL GOLDSMITH (National) to the Minister for Economic DevelopmentEconomy—Business Confidence Reports4. Hon PAUL GOLDSMITH (National) to the Minister for Economic Development: Does he still think the ANZ survey of business confidence is junk?Hon DAVID PARKER (Minister for Economic Development): As I told the member last time he asked that question the ANZ business confidence index is statistically proven to be a very poor predictor of future economic growth which is how the member misuses it.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Does he think that Treasury was wrong in July's Monthly Economic Indicators report to highlight weakening business confidence as one of the key risks to their growth forecasts?Hon DAVID PARKER: I agree with Treasury that underlying some of the concerns we're seeing are concerns with protectionism around the world. We've seen another lot of tariffs imposed today. In the last couple of weeks we've seen a United States proposal for $12 billion in farm subsidies. That's certainly not good news for New Zealand. I think what it proves is it seems that National is not the only backward-looking right-wing party in the world.Hon Simon Bridges: Well so that's allowed.SPEAKER: Well if the member thinks that it shouldn't be allowed there is an appropriate method of indicating that.Hon Gerry Brownlee: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. There's also an expectation that the Speaker will maintain a standard in here that's reasonable and fair to both sides of the House. I don't think it was at all fair for that comment to be made and I think you should have acted.SPEAKER: I want to thank the member for his advice.Hon Paul Goldsmith: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. The question was very simple. It said Did he think Treasury was wrong to highlight weakening business confidence?" He made no reference to that whatever and just talked about another factor.SPEAKER: He made quite a lot of reference to the report I think to which the member referred.Hon Paul Goldsmith: When last week he described the ANZ business confidence survey as "a survey of the emotion of CEOs" was he implying that New Zealand CEOs are being too emotional when they worry about the costs being added to their businesses?Hon DAVID PARKER: No I wasn't. Another way to express it would have been that that survey is a survey of the vibe of a self-selected subset of CEOs.Hon Paul Goldsmith: That's lovely. What makes him confident that Kiwi exporters will be able to pay a 27 percent increase in the minimum wage over three years while still maintaining their international competitiveness?Hon DAVID PARKER: Most New Zealand exporters are already paying wages that are higher than that. If the National Party position is that they're going to reverse those minimum wage increases they should come clean and say so; otherwise their rhetoric is meaningless.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Does he agree with the Minister of Finance who said this morning that businesses are optimistic about their own prospects despite the finding of the ANZ own-activity index which has dropped to plus 4—the lowest level since May 2009 and well below the long-term average of plus 27?Hon DAVID PARKER: I'd say two points in respect of that—or three actually. First I agree with the Minister of Finance. Second in support of that I would quote another public board chairman Rob Campbell who just in the last week or so said "This is a great place to open and operate a business. Negativity is for those who stand on the sidelines watching and commentating." The final thing I would say is to compare business confidence now to that which was the case at the time of the global financial crisis is so desperate as to be delusional.Hon Grant Robertson: Can the Minister confirm that in the ANZ survey of businesses' confidence in their own activity in fact 75 percent of businesses believe that their own activity will be the same or get better?Hon DAVID PARKER: Yes I can. And that's not surprising given that virtually all of those businesses are expecting their own businesses to grow."