Robertson Grant: Oral Questions — Questions to MinistersText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeRobertson Grant: Oral Questions — Questions to Ministers[Sitting date: 12 August 2015. Volume:707;Page:5701. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]6.GRANT ROBERTSON (Labour—Wellington Central) to the Minister of Finance: Does he have a “Plan B” for the New Zealand economy as has been called for by ANZ Bank Chief Economist Cameron Bagrie or is he satisfied with the prospect of rising unemployment declining GDP growth and shockingly low business confidence as described by the Westpac Quarterly Economic Overview?Hon BILL ENGLISH (Minister of Finance): In answer to the member’s second question this Government is never satisfied with the state of the economy. In answer to his first question plan A is an economy that can continuously adapt as circumstances change as illustrated by the fact that in the light of lower commodity prices the exchange rate has dropped significantly and interest rates are now falling rather than rising. But at the same time it is important that the Government continues to deal with the long-term issues around productivity and economic resilience. So we have a programme of microeconomic reform supporting growth through 350 actions in the Business Growth Agenda including just for instance reducing ACC levies by around $2 billion a year extending ultra-fast broadband to 80 percent of New Zealanders and delivering more skills that are relevant to industry through initiatives like the ICT Graduate Schools. Recent reports from Treasury and the Reserve Bank suggest that they see the economy growing at around 2 to 2.5 percent—moderate sustainable growth that will probably persist despite the excessive rhetoric of some of our bank economists.Grant Robertson: In light of that answer if it is all going so well why is the chief economist calling for a plan B and why has Federated Farmers joined him in calling for a plan B for the economy?Hon BILL ENGLISH: Probably for the same reasons why the caucus has not yet called for plan B in the form of Grant Robertson.Mr SPEAKER: Order!Hon BILL ENGLISH: In fact—Hon Steven Joyce: That’s plan E.Hon BILL ENGLISH: Plan E sorry.Mr SPEAKER: Order! We will have the answer to the question.Hon BILL ENGLISH: The adjustments that will help underpin sustainable moderate growth in this economy are under way and at the same time the Government is persisting with a programme of microeconomic reform such as for instance the roll-out of ultra-fast broadband which actually is working because people are subscribing now. It is enabling them not just to have more entertainment but also to run better more productive and more internationalised businesses.Grant Robertson: In light of that answer is Westpac economist Dominick Stephens correct when he says that the latest survey of business confidence has seen the biggest single decline in a 3-month period for the last 15 years?Hon BILL ENGLISH: He may well be. It would be a decline from the highest level for a long long time. In any case when you look at the Westpac forecasts they are consistent with those of the Reserve Bank and Treasury which show a path to moderate sustainable growth of between 2 to 2.5 percent.Grant Robertson: In light of that answer can the Minister confirm that the Westpac forecast in fact foreshadows growth of 1.8 percent below the 2 and 2.5 percent that he and the Prime Minister told the House yesterday we can expect?Hon BILL ENGLISH: I think that number appears in the calendar-year forecast as opposed to the standard version which is the March-quarter forecast. But for a member who regards sending a tweet as work I am surprised he got to that level of detail.Grant Robertson: Is Dominick Stephens correct that the Canterbury rebuild has peaked 9 months earlier than expected and will no longer be contributing to growth from this year and from 2017 will actually become “an outright drag on GDP.”?Hon BILL ENGLISH: I gather there is some contest of opinion over whether the Canterbury rebuild has peaked but if it is news to that member that it will peak at some time everyone else has known that since the day the rebuild started. It was always going to peak one day and I think the good news is that as we get through the very successful Canterbury rebuild overseen by Minister Gerry Brownlee the economy is resilient to international shocks the right adjustments that we would hope would underpin further growth in jobs and incomes are occurring and there actually is not a good reason to panic in the way that that member is panicking.Grant Robertson: So for the sake of clarity can he confirm that he does not think he needs to change anything about his approach to the economy despite the fact that the people he is accusing of panicking include two major bank economists and Federated Farmers and he can confirm once and for all for the House that he is always right and everyone else is wrong?Hon BILL ENGLISH: No. In general we would pay more attention to what is happening for those who are out on the economic playing field rather than those who are sitting in the grandstand watching it which is where they are. The Government has a programme that is designed to be adaptive in a continuous way and that is exactly what is happening. The exchange rate is falling interest rates are falling and there will be adjustments in businesses and households all around New Zealand because we fundamentally believe that when the pressure comes on a bit the last person you would go to is the Labour Party finance spokesman. People who are running their own businesses and households are in a far better position to make the judgments about what changes need to be made with support from the Government with its investment in infrastructure and in research and development and its focus on a level playing field for taxation—Mr SPEAKER: Order!Hon BILL ENGLISH: —with strong focus on innovation.Rt Hon John Key: Can the Minister confirm if he does have the right plan B for the economy whether he will be writing it himself or will he just cut and paste it and plagiarise it—Mr SPEAKER: Order! That question will not help the order of the House. Question—Hon BILL ENGLISH: Mr Speaker—Mr SPEAKER: No I have ruled it out.