Graham Kennedy: Debate on Prime Minister’s StatementText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeGraham Kennedy: Debate on Prime Minister’s Statement[Sitting date: 16 February 2016. Volume:711;Page:8999. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]Dr KENNEDY GRAHAM (Green): In his statement opening the parliamentary year the Prime Minister allowed the nation one sentence on climate change. He said: “Following the Paris Agreement [on climate change] the Government will [this year] complete its review of the Emissions Trading Scheme which will assess the Scheme’s [operation and] effectiveness to 2020 and beyond.” So let us explore the relationship between the Paris agreement and the emissions trading scheme review here in New Zealand.The Paris outcome is going to require higher standards of behaviour from all 196 parties to the framework convention. It aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change. Article 4 provides that developed countries should continue to take a lead. The accompanying decision says that much greater emission reductions will be required than those associated with the intended 1.5-degree Celsius threshold. New Zealand’s intended nationally determined contribution for 2030 of 11 percent is regarded by independent observers as inadequate and poor. So to meet our legal obligations coming out of Paris New Zealand will be obliged to increase its intended nationally determined contribution before ratification of the agreement. The onus is therefore on New Zealand to review its target not at its leisure but now. A greater mitigation reduction effort will require fundamentally different reasoning and so it is best to recognise now what with respect we think has been incorrect in this current Government’s thinking.The Cabinet paper of last year shows how the Government’s thinking has trended in making what is perhaps the most critical decision in New Zealand’s history. Let us consider what it does not do. It does not explore the global mitigation required between 2015 and 2030 for the temperature goal even though the paper states that the goal is in New Zealand’s interests. It cites without concern the Prime Minister’s scientific adviser’s statement that sustained reduction in global emissions of the order of 40 to 70 percent by 2050 compared with 2010 is required. It touches only in passing on ways of comparing targets. It identifies four methods: equal cost equal per capita emissions historical responsibility and equal reductions from business as usual. It does not explore any of these in detail and it does not assess them. It fails to acknowledge the sophisticated models for determining fair shares around the world.What is required is a Cabinet paper no later than mid-2016 that will do five things. First it will acknowledge the required reduction in global emissions in 2030 from the intended nationally determined contribution projected 55 gigatonnes to 42 for 2 degrees Celsius and 39 gigatonnes for 1.5 degrees Celsius. Second it will acknowledge the integrity and applicability of the principle of equity in the framework convention and the results that the research institutes have reached regarding each country’s responsibility level in 2030. It will note the two main studies done in this respect—contraction and convergence and equity reference—indicating that New Zealand’s responsibility will be as low as 23 megatonnes or even 5 megatonnes in 2030. This compares with our current megatonne level of 67. Third it will explore the maximum domestic abatement potential for New Zealand by 2030 in meeting that responsibility and acknowledge a responsibility to make up any shortfall through climate financing. Fourth it will develop a national climate action plan with the most effective set of climate policies and regulatory measures designed to reach the maximum domestic abatement potential. Fifth it will ensure that the national climate action plan reflects optimal equity among all relevant intersectoral and societal interests to the extent possible.There is a need for a genuine cross-party dialogue on climate policy in this Parliament one that finds sufficient common ground for a predictable and far-reaching national plan of action for the sake of future generations.