Hutchison Paul: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to Ministers 
Hutchison Paul: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to Ministers 
[Volume:653;Page:2625] 
7.  
Dr PAUL HUTCHISON (National—Hunua) 
 to the  
Minister for Climate Change Issues 
: What do the latest reports on New Zealand’s compliance with the Kyoto Protocol show and how do these vary from previous reports? 
Hon Dr NICK SMITH (Minister for Climate Change Issues) 
: 
 The 2009 net position report shows New Zealand is expected to exceed its Kyoto Protocol obligations by 9.6 million tonnes for the first commitment period which on current carbon prices equates to $241 million. This is a marked improvement from the 2008 report which indicated a 21.7 million tonne deficit equating to $546 million. The Government has responded cautiously to this good news noting that in previous reports these projections have varied from over a billion dollars in surplus to over a billion dollars in deficit. 
Dr Paul Hutchison 
: Why has the Kyoto balance changed by nearly $800 million in the last year? 
Hon Dr NICK SMITH 
: The big changes have been in forestry and agriculture. Drought conditions in 2007-08 resulted in fewer cattle sheep and deer and together with more accurate data on actual nitrous oxide animal emissions that has resulted in a predicted reduction in agricultural emissions. New forest data show that the post-1990 forests for which New Zealand gets credits are absorbing significantly more carbon than was anticipated a year ago because the forests are being planted on better soils than previously and because they have not been thinned so they are producing thicker stands. There has been no significant change in the projections of emissions for energy transport and industrial processes. These significant variations in agricultural and forest data are a cautionary message about the uncertainty and challenges of carbon accounting in respect of natural systems. 
Dr Paul Hutchison 
: What steps is the Government taking to try to get greater certainty in respect of New Zealand’s carbon balance? 
Hon Dr NICK SMITH 
: The Government is taking three steps. First these latest figures will be independently audited and internationally reviewed over coming months. Secondly we are investing heavily in the Land Use and Carbon Analysis System to get greater certainty on those forestry figures. Satellite data should be available later this year and we should continue to treat the forestry figures with caution until that satellite information is available. Thirdly this Government is investing heavily in research on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture as there is still significant uncertainty with regard to emissions from that sector and they are particularly significant for New Zealand’s unique emissions profile. 
Charles Chauvel 
: Can the Minister confirm that New Zealand’s gross greenhouse gas emission levels are still some 23 percent higher than the 1990 levels that the effort required to lower emissions will still be very significant and that National’s policy-setting so far—such as stalling the implementation of the emissions trading scheme scrapping the ban on thermal baseload generation doing away with the biofuels obligation and generally failing to plan for a transition to a lower-polluting economy—is heading in exactly the wrong direction? 
Hon Dr NICK SMITH 
: It is true that New Zealand’s gross emissions have increased very substantially and the great irony is that during the course of the previous Government when there was great talk of carbon neutrality New Zealand’s emissions grew at a faster rate than those of any other developed country in the Western World. I say the only thing that is currently saving New Zealand’s bacon on the carbon balance is the large tree planting that occurred in the 1990s. That is actually offsetting that large increase in emissions. But no one in this House should doubt the challenge for New Zealand of constraining its emissions and making real progress on climate change.