English Bill: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to Ministers 
English Bill: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to Ministers 
[Volume:608;Page:5168] 
3.  
Hon BILL ENGLISH (Leader of the Opposition) 
 to the  
Minister of Energy 
: Does 
the statement by the Minister of Finance yesterday to the House that “There was no expectation of a dry year as early as 2003.” mean the Government had made no plans to deal with a dry year in 2003 and any economic effects of the corresponding electricity shortage; if not what exact changes had been made prior to this year to manage a dry year? 
Hon PETE HODGSON (Minister of Energy) 
: 
 No. I instigated a review after winter 2001. As a result we now have much-improved scenario development and modelling which in my view is still not good enough. Secondly the industry has identified and fixed all the main transmission constraints that affect winter security. For example the capacity to shift electricity south across the Cook Strait cable has been increased by about 20 percent. Thirdly we have improved contingency planning and communication protocols. 
Hon Bill English 
: Did the Minister share the results of his much-improved scenario modelling with the Minister of Finance so that he may have a better understanding that a dry year can in fact occur almost any year? 
Hon PETE HODGSON 
: The much-improved scenario modelling has enabled us to identify the potential for a crisis this year far far earlier than occurred for example in 1992. In 1992 the Government of the day of which that member was a part did nothing until I raised the issue during Queen’s Birthday weekend. 
Mark Peck 
: Is it true that there has been no addition to New Zealand’s electricity generation since 2001? 
Hon PETE HODGSON 
: No it most certainly is not. In the past year New Zealand’s generation capacity increased by 111 megawatts. An announcement is being made of a further 90 megawatts of generation in 2004 and further announcements are expected within a few weeks. That said our main problem right now has much less to do with a shortage of new generation than with a shortage of rain for existing generation. 
Peter Brown 
: Given that the Minister said in his answer to the Hon Bill English that the much-improved scenario modelling is not good enough will he tell the House when it will be good enough and how he will achieve that? 
Hon PETE HODGSON 
: Yes on 15 May. 
Hon Richard Prebble 
: Can the Minister confirm that his much-improved scenario modelling confirms that there is actually no shortage of water in New Zealand there is at least 400 years’ supply of coal an unknown but large quantity of gas and no shortage of wind or sunlight and that the real problem is that the Government owns 70 percent of the generation in New Zealand and 100 percent of the national grid that it totally controls the planning process and that it did not expect a dry year in 2003? 
Hon PETE HODGSON 
: The much-improved scenario modelling shows none of that—unsurprisingly. 
Jeanette Fitzsimons 
: Can the Minister confirm that the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research’s modelling has been advising for some years that the east coast of both islands is likely to get drier with global climate change; if so should we not now have a dry-year conservation plan that starts the simple measures early every winter from now for a few years? 
Hon PETE HODGSON 
: Since 2001 contingency planning has been in place permanently. However the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research’s assessment which is that it is likely to become drier on the east coast of both islands as climate change effects come into play is offset by the fact that it becomes wetter on the west coast. Here is a fact: the rain that fills our hydro lakes is not rain that emanates from the east coast but is rain that emanates from the west coast and drops across the Main Divide. 
Hon Bill English 
: Given that the Minister waited until 2 weeks ago to call for power savings to offset a winter shortage is his much-improved scenario modelling any superior to his going down and having a look at the lake? 
Hon PETE HODGSON 
: Yes it is. Can I say that one day when scenario modelling decides that ownership matters it will be the scenario modelling that I do not take any notice of but I also say that the Government has been aware of the prospects of a shortage since the end of last year.