Swain Paul: General Debate 
Swain Paul: General Debate 
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Hon PAUL SWAIN (Labour—Rimutaka) 
: 
 I feel duty-bound and obliged to keep the public informed of the latest National Party leadership race which has moved on again since last week. I think that the public needs to know about where the TAB odds are who is running who is fading and who is looking like he or she will not even make it. Let us just recap who the horses are. We have Don Brash the current leader who is not really the leader Gerry Brownlee who wants to be the leader but not likely to be John Key who will probably be the leader at some stage but it is not certain when that will be Bill English who was the leader and now wants to be the leader again Simon Power who was predicted to be the leader but is not likely to be and a bit of a roughie. If I had money and I wanted to put it on a roughie I would take Tim Groser because I think he is paying very very good odds. 
Let us look at what has happened in the last week To be fair to Don Brash I think he has moved slightly ahead. He was in the pack but then he was moving just slightly ahead because he laid down the law and told his caucus not to be disloyal. Therefore he had probably moved a little ahead of the pack. But today Don Brash has gone backwards by throwing Transit documents around Parliament. The important thing about that is that he was trying to do angry. I tell him not to do angry because he just does not do it well. I think the pressure is getting to him—moving forward a bit dropping back a bit. Overall Don Brash has probably not really improved his position in the last little while. 
Then there is Gerry Brownlee. Gerry Brownlee one would have to say has gone backwards. He has gone backwards because he was outed as the person who was undermining John Key. That was a really really bad piece of information the public had. As a result I would say that Gerry Brownlee is fading. He is running out of puff fading and not likely to make the cut at the end of the day. I think that whatever happens at the end he will not even be the deputy leader. I think that is the point. Gerry Brownlee will go to the back benches and with restructuring he will slowly disappear out into the lobby. 
Then there is John Key. It is fair to say that he was looking strong in that pack. He was coming forward and then went backwards after announcing at the 2-day National caucus meeting that someone was deliberately undermining him. He said he knew who it was but he would not say. That outraged and incensed the National Party caucus. How do we know that? Well we know that it incenses us when those sorts of things happen. As a result John Key himself has been dropping back. He has gone quiet. He is quite happy just to gallop there in the middle of the field just going along quietly and waiting for the break—waiting for the gap. He knows he will have to get some assistance from other jockeys who are sitting on the horses around him. He is just waiting and of course his time will come. 
Then there is Bill English. What do we know about Bill English? He has gone completely quiet. 
Hon Mark Burton 
: He’s very bitter. 
Hon PAUL SWAIN 
: He is bitter of course about what happened because he was rolled. Do members remember that—that he was rolled by Don Brash? Is it not funny that Don Brash is now concerned about being rolled? An old saying is that he who lives by the jockey’s whip dies by the jockey’s whip. Bill English is galloping in the middle of the field and he may finish strongly. 
Sue Moroney 
: He’s a stayer. 
Hon PAUL SWAIN 
: Yes he is a bit of a stayer. He has come back a bit but he has not faded. He is also just waiting now. Just like John Key Bill English is sitting in the middle of the field waiting for the break but needing the assistance of others. 
I come now to Simon Power. It was predicted at the start of the race that potentially he was a winner but it is fair to say that he has faded and that he will pull up lame. That is a shame because he is a thoroughbred—he has good breeding. The problem is that although he probably would have made a good leader I think he will fall out. 
Of course Tim Groser is paying exceptional odds. He is the real roughie in the pack. If I had 20 bucks I would probably put it on him. I would probably become a millionaire if he ever came in. He is still in the race but at the same time he is likely to drop out. 
So here we have the pack moving forward and I think we are duty-bound every Wednesday to try to pick where the race is at that particular time to make sure that people know the odds. Everyone will be interested. We like the TAB have a duty to keep people informed of the chances. 
Hon Mark Burton 
: It’s the only interesting thing they do. 
Hon PAUL SWAIN 
: Yes it is the only interesting thing. Not one policy comes out of the National Party; the issue is all about the leadership. Of course that is the most important thing that the public is looking at as far as the National Party is concerned.