Robertson Grant: Oral Questions — Questions to MinistersText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeRobertson Grant: Oral Questions — Questions to Ministers[Sitting date: 18 March 2015. Volume:704;Page:2349. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]6.GRANT ROBERTSON (Labour—Wellington Central) to the Minister of Finance: Can workers still expect that the average wage will rise to $62000 in the next three years as he stated during the period of the election campaign in 2014; if so what annual percentage increase will be required to make that a reality?Hon BILL ENGLISH (Minister of Finance): Treasury forecasts show the average wage rising to $62200 by September 2018. That information is available to the public it was available to that member and he could have included it in his election speeches but he chose not to. Whether workers can expect that to happen is subject to all the same uncertainties as any economic forecast. These forecasts have annual growth in the average wage of 2.9 percent a year in nominal terms and 0.8 percent in real terms. Treasury’s latest forecasts actually show slightly stronger real wage growth over the next few years so households could have slightly greater spending power or less depending on the relationship between inflation rates and their actual wage settlements.Grant Robertson: Give his promise before the last election that his party’s policies would make those forecasts a reality is he now guaranteeing to New Zealand workers that there will be a 3 percent average pay rise over the next 3 years?Hon BILL ENGLISH: No and I doubt that anyone would believe such a guarantee from a Government. I do not think anyone who voted in the last election overwhelmingly for National ahead of Labour thought that they were voting for a guaranteed set of pay increases. That of course for any individual family or worker will depend on the business that they are in the productivity the negotiation process the success of that business the export prices the exchange rate—any number of uncertainties. We made the point that on average wages are rising. Labour campaigned that incomes were not rising if not falling and it lost the election.Grant Robertson: Given his statement on Sunday on TV that he made his promise that the average wage would rise to $62000 as “part of a political debate” does that mean that promise means absolutely nothing now that the election is over?Hon BILL ENGLISH: If the member believes that wage increases in New Zealand can be guaranteed by a politician’s promise he knows less about economics than I thought he did. Actually Mr Robertson wages cannot be guaranteed by anything politicians say. What we did point out was that all forecasts showed consistent moderate increases in incomes in New Zealand. That is turning out to be the case. We believe it will continue and we believe the Government can take measures to support it. Incomes are rising in New Zealand. That member tried to persuade workers that incomes were falling and it is one of the reasons he lost the election so badly.Grant Robertson: In light of that answer could the finance Minister tell us what percentage figure of wage increases constitutes a moderate wage increase?Hon BILL ENGLISH: I can tell him that we have described these forecasts which imply a 2.9 percent a year increase in nominal terms. I would say that is moderate. Some people might think it is very large. Some people might think it is by no means large enough. But I think it is fair to describe the economic forecasts about wage growth in New Zealand as consistent moderate increases.