4. Question No. 4—FinanceNICOLA WILLIS (Deputy Leader—National) to the Minister of FinanceQuestion No. 4—Finance4. NICOLA WILLIS (Deputy Leader—National) to the Minister of Finance: Does he stand by his statement that The first surplus since the 2018/2019 year is expected in 2024/2025 … this is a year later than we set out in December"?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON (Minister of Finance): I stand by my full statement with its context which was—I quote myself—"Just as the previous National Government ran deficits and increased net debt following the Global Financial Crisis and Canterbury Earthquakes we have done the same to protect New Zealanders from the effects of COVID-19. Add in the impact of the War in Ukraine and the ongoing supply chain disruption as a result of continued COVID responses around the world [and] we are faced with running five years of deficits compared to National's six. The first surplus since the 2018/19 year is expected in 2024/25. The keen-eyed among you will realise that this is a year later than we set out in December. We are not alone in toning down some of our expectations as a result of the war and ongoing supply chain issues. The IMF has said that global growth will average 3.5% over 2022 down from the 4.4% it had previously forecast in January. All that said achieving a surplus within the next three fiscal years—at a quicker rate than National did after the Global Financial Crisis—is something I am proud to be able to do as Minister of Finance."Nicola Willis: Why should New Zealanders believe he is spending their money as carefully as they would when despite introducing multiple new taxes and collecting billions more from income tax as inflation pushes people into higher tax brackets he still can't get the Government books under control?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Well Mr Speaker leaving aside some of the assertions in that question—SPEAKER: Yeah I should have ruled it out but I'm being liberal. Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: —I am aware that the member concerned used to work with Bill English and I'm sure he would be concerned that she's trashing his record so significantly today given that it took six years for the National Government to get into surplus after the global financial crisis (GFC) and we're only going to do it in five.Nicola Willis: How can New Zealanders have confidence in the Minister's economic management when even while they tighten their budgets as inflation bites he is about to embark on the biggest spend-up in Budget history?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Once again I take the member back to the National Government after the GFC when core Crown expenses reached 34.1 percent of GDP. For us it's reached just over 35 percent in the face of a greater financial crisis and it is forecast to come down to 30 percent across the forecast period. We have invested in supporting New Zealanders through COVID-19 and we will continue to invest in supporting New Zealand's economic recovery.Hon Chris Hipkins: Is it unprecedented for a Government to take a year or two longer to get back into surplus than they might have earlier predicted?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: No it's not. And in fact I do recall the Hon Bill English in fact saying that it would be more challenging to get back into surplus—and he did so in what I imagine was a very well-written speech.Nicola Willis: Does he stand by his statement in his speech this morning that "surplus means current spending is paid for from current revenues. … taking pressure off inflation" and what impact does he think the Government's spending will have on inflation in the current year?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I'm confident that the investments that this Government will make will ensure that New Zealanders get the public services that they deserve that will make sure we have a good health system and a quality education system. I also know that the kind of spending a Government does matters a lot when it comes to inflation. Targeted spending that the Government is doing is important. Spending that the Opposition is proposing which would see tax cuts to those on the highest incomes is not targeted spending and would likely be more inflationary.Nicola Willis: Will he rule out further tax increases to keep up with his projections of more debt and more deficits?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: As the Prime Minister has already indicated we have implemented our tax policy. What I will rule out is adopting the member's tax policy that would see the wealthiest in New Zealand get thousands of dollars a year in tax cuts while those on the middle incomes get two bucks a week. I can rule that out.Hon Chris Hipkins: Has the Minister of Finance seen any suggestions over the last two years that the Government should have spent more on things like the wage subsidy and the COVID-19 response?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I have heard frequent suggestions from members of the Opposition that we should be giving more support to businesses that we should be providing more things. I remember Andrew—SPEAKER: Order! Order! I think both members know that donkey drops for that purpose are not allowed.Nicola Willis: Has the Minister reassessed any of his spending plans in light of massive inflation high tax takes and plummeting business and consumer confidence or is he determined to keep spending up large no matter what?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Every single Budget the Government works across every part of the Budget to make sure that we are delivering value for money for New Zealanders. What I have assessed is that New Zealanders deserve a health system where the hospitals they go to work properly; where children have been educated in warm dry classrooms; where we actually build State houses rather than sell them. On this side of the House we are committed to a programme that lifts the quality of public services that New Zealanders get. What we're not going to do is untargeted tax cuts that give the wealthiest New Zealanders hundreds of thousands of dollars while those on low and middle incomes are given $2 a week."