Robertson Grant: Budget DebateText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeRobertson Grant: Budget Debate[Sitting date: 26 May 2015. Volume:705;Page:3949. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]GRANT ROBERTSON (Labour—Wellington Central): What a pathetic bid for the leadership of the ACT Party that was. I mean if you are going to do it do it how Maurice Williamson does it. There was only one person laughing after that: Judith Collins. No one else over there was laughing after that pathetic attempt.Today I want to talk about a Budget that has two deficits in it—a deficit of money and a deficit of ideas. Be very clear: Bill English being the Dipton version of Rip Van Winkle and waking from his 7-year slumber to suddenly decide that there is a problem with poverty and there is a problem with the housing crisis does not make for a plan. It does not make for a real plan to grow the New Zealand economy. There is a complete deficit of ideas in here and indeed a deficit of money.It is interesting because when the Government was challenged about the extent of its support in this case for working families or for beneficiary families Bill English was heard to say: “Well something’s better than nothing.” That is it now. That is the extent of the aspiration of this National Government—something is better than nothing. That is as good as it gets for New Zealanders from now on with the National Government—something is better than nothing. The party that used to say it was ambitious for New Zealand has now resigned itself to the level of the micro-managing and the tinkering.Where are the opportunities for young New Zealanders to look at this Budget and say: “There’s the chance for me to be a success. There’s the chance for me to grow up in a regional town in New Zealand get a job raise my family there and buy a house.”? Where is that in this Budget? All we saw was a Budget with its eye firmly on one thing: the 2017 election and promising tax cuts. Mark my words that is what this Budget is about. Throw out $25 a week that by all means will be welcome in those households but that is the build-up to 2017. It is the build-up to once again—just as this National Government did in 2010—putting forward a package of tax cuts designed to bribe and win National an election rather than dealing with the social and economic problems that are in front of New Zealand today. It is irresponsible. It is a politician’s Budget; it is not a Budget for the people of New Zealand.But if we take a look at the deficit of money in this Budget let us be clear. Yes National promised surpluses to New Zealand for 2014-15. It promised that at two elections. It promised that right throughout the last 4 or 5 years and it has completely failed to deliver on that promise. But it is much worse than that because what this Budget does is kick the fiscal can down the road. Even in the optimistic scenario that Treasury put up for New Zealand we will see growth halved on an annual basis from now through until 2019. That growth today is built on the shaky foundations of milk of selling houses in Auckland and of recovering from disaster but even that in the optimistic scenario halves over the next period.Debt as a percentage of GDP peaks in 2016 but get this clear. Not a single cent of the current $88 billion worth of debt will be paid off until 2019. That is the real casualty of failing to post a surplus. It is the fact that future generations of New Zealanders are again being saddled by a National Government with huge levels of debt and that is in the optimistic scenario that Treasury is putting forward. We see exports remaining stagnant at about 27 percent of GDP in the most optimistic scenario and then today we hear that dairy exports are now down 27 percent compared with where they were last April. We have got the largest current account deficit in 6 years.These are the scenarios in which National would say good times are ahead for New Zealand. But if we look into the detail of the Budget look at what is called the downside scenario included in the downside scenario is falling commodity prices. Let us be realistic here. Everyone in the world is telling the National Government that dairy prices will continue to fall. Last year Goldman Sachs put out a report that said there is a 5-year glut in milk products being supplied into the global market and commodity prices will keep falling. It also says that there will be higher inflation. We have seen no evidence of that. The Reserve Bank Governor cannot guarantee that.In that scenario there will be no surplus next year. There will not be a surplus until 2018 in that scenario. There will not be any debt paid back before 2019 in that scenario. In fact the percentage of debt as a percentage of GDP will be 26 percent—miles away from where those members are now. The current account deficit hits 7.7 percent of GDP in 2016-17 under that scenario.The numbers in this Budget are clear: the economy is standing still in the best scenario and going backwards in the worst scenario. That is the economic legacy of Bill English and John Key kicking the fiscal can down the road. They made promises to New Zealand that wages would go up by $7000 and that there would be 140000 more jobs. They made that promise last year. It was to happen in 2017. What they do in this Budget in the most optimistic of scenarios is kick the can down the road to 2019. It is always jam tomorrow with Bill English. We are always on the cusp of something special. The only something special in the National Government is Nick Smith and he is very special indeed. We are always on the cusp of something special with Bill English and it never comes.Government members like to crow about being the great economic managers. Well the reality is seven Budgets seven deficits no debt being paid back and exports flat-lining. There is no real growth sustainable growth in this economy going forward for New Zealand under the settings of this Government and it is all done in a sacrifice at the altar of tax cuts in 2017. That is irresponsible Government. That is irresponsible management of the New Zealand economy.So what should the Government have been doing in this Budget? Well it should have been investing in the regions of New Zealand. No doubt someone on the Government side will get up and tell us: “No there’s a great initiative in there. There are the regional research institutes.” Well to start with there are only three of them and it may have escaped members on the other side but there are more than three regions. The other thing is that the amount of money for them is pitiful. What it typifies is an approach to economic development driven by Steven Joyce. We do not want to see more money going to Steven Joyce’s mates whom he talks to in the Koru Club. What we want to see is real investment in the regions making sure that we get alongside all of regional New Zealand and build on the strengths.I was in Gisborne last week. There are people there doing amazing innovative things in engineering in adding value to wood products. They need to be backed by a Government and that is what the Labour Government will do after 2017—not pick winners out of Steven Joyce’s rolodex and not put Steven Joyce who thinks a big night out is at Skycity on the pokies in charge of economic development. We need real economic development in our regions. That was shockingly absent from this Budget.Also shockingly absent from this Budget was a proper plan to diversify the New Zealand economy. How long will this Government go on believing that it can simply supply one product to one big customer and think that that is a proper strategy for the New Zealand economy? We must have real initiatives to add value but they were absent from this Budget.Then there is the housing crisis where Bill English’s solution is to come up with a tax that will not work—which he has acknowledged himself—and a housing programme that Nick Smith has admitted today will not build even a fraction of the houses that have been promised in Auckland. The failure of this Government to deal with the housing crisis in New Zealand was emphasised by the fact that the Budget documents did not even contain most of the housing initiatives because it was such a panicked last-minute reaction to being told off by the Reserve Bank Governor.The biggest deficit in this Budget is not actually the deficit in the finances; it is the deficit of ideas the deficit of hope and the deficit of opportunity for New Zealanders. A young New Zealander today with the world at their feet will be looking at this Budget and asking themselves: “What is here in New Zealand for me? What future is here?”. New Zealanders deserve far far better than a Budget that focuses so much on micro-issues that is so much about political management and that breaks every promise that has been made. New Zealanders deserve far better than this Budget and they will get it after 2017 with a Labour Government.