Heatley Phil: General Debates 
Heatley Phil: General Debates 
[Volume:607;Page:4434] 
PHIL HEATLEY (NZ National—Whangarei) 
: 
 The Government has enjoyed the tax take. Plenty was collected; plenty was thrown about. The Government has loved it. There has been money rolling in and money thrown about and everybody is happy. We have heard about it with capacity building. Mr Okeroa made three points about what capacity building is all about did he not? It is about courage vision and a keg. That is what it is all about. But we know we have heard and we have been forewarned that there are signs of a slow-down of the New Zealand economy. This Labour Government will not get the tax take it has enjoyed for the last 3 years and it will not be able to throw about the money it has thrown about in the last 3 years. The chickens are coming home to roost. Anyone can govern in a good year. I want to see the Government perform in a bad year—a bad year in which it will contribute. 
I put a little warning out to members of Parliament and to the public—particularly taxpayers. Short-term reactions to the war will obscure the underlying economic trends over the next few months. This Government will blame the war for a downturn. It will do that. This Government will be prepared to hide behind the war. It will not support our traditional allies in the field but it will certainly hide behind them when it comes to answering questions about the economy. 
Let us take four indicators that the economy is all turning to custard—four indicators that the Government has simply squandered the opportunity it could have banked over the last few years. First of all the two New Zealand consumer-confidence surveys have both shown sharp falls. The McDermott Miller survey showed the sharpest fall in confidence since June 2000. Confidence has been hardest hit in the rural regions according to the survey. The Colmar Brunton poll revealed a sharp fall in consumer confidence. Nearly 20 percent more people lacked confidence in the future of this economy than in the previous survey. 
Farm incomes are another measure. There is nothing new here. Farm incomes are taking a hammering and they will continue to do so. Everyone knows that the rural sector still pays most of the bills in this country and the sector will be hit very very hard. That is not just because of issues outside this country’s control with lower commodity prices and exchange rate but because the Government insists on putting up prices and costs to small businesses to farmers and to every business up Queen Street along The Terrace in Cameron Street—even in Whangarei. The estimated payout for dairy farmers is $3.60 down from $5.30 last year. We can argue whose fault that is and what that is due to but the reality is that the tax take will not roll in. This Government will have to be held accountable for throwing money about. It will hide behind the war and I warn members of that. The Government must be held accountable. 
Gross domestic product data is due to be released this Friday. Expectations are for an increase half that of the last three quarters. But this is the doozy of an indicator: the Prime Minister’s confidence indicator—that is what I call it—the knowledge wave conference. She has no confidence in the growth of this economy into the future.