Norman Russel: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to MinistersText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeNorman Russel: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to Ministers[Sitting date: 08 April 2014. Volume:697;Page:16951. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]6.Dr RUSSEL NORMAN (Co-Leader—Green)to the Minister for Climate Change Issues: By what percentage will New Zealand’s net greenhouse gas emissions increase in the next 10 years according to the Ministry for the Environment annual report for the year ended June 2013?Hon TIM GROSER (Minister for Climate Change Issues):If we take that particular year we input into it the exact existing Kyoto accounting frameworks—even though they are under negotiation for a new long-term agreement—and we assume for the next 10 years that the current extraordinarily low carbon price will drive the emissions trading scheme the figure we get is 48 percent. If we change any of those parameters we get a radically different result.Dr Russel Norman: Can the Minister therefore confirm that according to the Government’s own statistics and own information New Zealand’s net greenhouse gas emissions will increase by about 50 percent in just 10 years?Hon TIM GROSER: No I can confirm that that is a projection based on the assumptions that we discussed in answer to the previous question.Dr Russel Norman: When the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calls for urgent action from all countries to reduce emissions in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change why will his Government’s policies drive up net emissions by 50 percent in a decade?Hon TIM GROSER: Well we shall have to wait and see. We are discussing the difference between a projection and an eventuality that we cannot foresee. The underlying point here relates however—let us repeat this once again—to the shape of the New Zealand forestry cycle which operates on a 28-year rotation cycle and at that stage in the late 2020s will be at its absolute height. After new plantings take place it will start to decline radically.Dr Russel Norman: Why when New Zealand is on track to be the worst-performing developed country when it comes to cutting emissions is his Government not doing more to bring New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions down?Hon TIM GROSER: New Zealand has been reducing its carbon intensity over the last 24 years by approximately 24 to 25 percent. We are becoming an increasingly carbon-efficient economy but our gross emissions may be increasing because our economy is growing and the population is growing. I am quite confident that if we follow the policies of the Green Party in some future Government it will certainly achieve lower emissions but it will be at the cost of higher unemployment and lower real wages for New Zealanders.Dr Russel Norman: When the Minister told TVNZ that “We’re not playing God on this. That natural process will determine what happens to adaptation of human beings …” is he seriously proposing that we just let climate change take its course leaving our key industries economy homes and precious species exposed and at risk?Hon TIM GROSER: The answer is definitively no. That is not what I said. What I said is that the Government needs to provide strategic advice based on good science—and we are going to spend about $100 million on this in the years to 2019—to try to move the country along to a sensible adaptation framework. But actually New Zealanders have got a proven record of adaptation to different sources of change. I could go through numerous examples. My belief is that New Zealanders are better equipped to adapt to climate change than any developed country that I can think of.Dr Russel Norman: Does he stand by his comment to Radio New Zealand National that we have plenty of time and how does he square this with other Governments’ responses to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report such as US Secretary of State John Kerry’s call for all countries to act dramatically and quickly to reduce net emissions?Hon TIM GROSER: We are conflating two different issues here. One is the question of the quantum of global mitigation that the planet is undertaking and that is not sufficient. In that respect I would absolutely associate ourselves with Mr Kerry’s statement. If we are talking about adaptation I continue to believe—because the evidence supports this—that New Zealand is extremely well placed over a very long period of time of 100 years to make the necessary adaptation provided we have sensible policies in place.Dr Russel Norman: Given that New Zealand is on track to increase its net emissions by 50 percent in the decade ahead according to the Government’s own reports which will make New Zealand the worst-performing developed country when it comes to cutting emissions has the Minister now dispensed with the policy of fast following and instead taken it upon himself to be a leader not in emissions reductions but in emissions growth?Hon TIM GROSER: The simple reality is that we are focusing primarily first of all on the first Kyoto commitment period and we are extremely confident that New Zealand will meet its international obligations. Beyond that we are focusing on the period to 2020 where we have put forward a unilateral commitment of minus 5 percent on 1990 levels which is considerably ahead of certain other developed countries. What happens beyond that is something we have not yet got a position on other than the aspirational target of 2050 when we aim to reduce emissions by 50 percent.