12. Question No. 12—StatisticsDr JIAN YANG (National) to the Minister of StatisticsQuestion No. 12—Statistics12. Dr JIAN YANG (National) to the Minister of Statistics: Does he believe Census 2018 was a success?Hon JAMES SHAW (Minister of Statistics): The success of the census should be measured by whether the data derived from it is fit for purpose. The Government Statistician yesterday gave a detailed picture of when key outputs of the census will be released and the extent to which they will be fit for purpose. She indicated that the general population count is likely to be more accurate than that of the 2013 census. Stats NZ has been able to create—Hon Gerry Brownlee: Of course they're going to say that.Hon JAMES SHAW: Would you like me to slow it down for you Mr Brownlee? Stats NZ has been able to create a data set that includes records for 4.7 million people. This is only 58000 people fewer than their estimated population on census night compared to the 2013 census which had an undercount of 103800 people on census night.Hon Gerry Brownlee: They're making it up.Hon JAMES SHAW: Well Mr Brownlee you shouldn't have signed off on the business case back in 2014 that moved to the use of administrative data should you? You should have crossed the House on that one. What this means is that for some of the most critical products such as that for general and Māori electorate boundaries or for district health board funding formulas the output will not only be fit for purpose but be potentially more accurate than that produced by the 2013 census which the National Party was also in charge of. New Zealanders should rest easy that the quality of data that they've come to expect from the census for the highest priority purposes will be maintained or improved on for the 2018 census. The Government Statistician has also indicated that in some areas it is unlikely that the output will be as high quality as she would like. Where this is the case Stats NZ will work with the affected stakeholders to ensure that they have access to the best-quality data available. Clearly there were problems during the execution—[Interruption] I'm tempted—of the field collection phase of the census programme. The Government Statistician indicated her disappointment with this aspect of the census many months ago. There is an independent review being conducted by management consultant Murray Jack and former Canadian deputy Chief Statistician Connie Graziadei. Their report is due by July and will cover all areas of census execution as well as funding and governance issues. My assessment of the success of the census therefore—SPEAKER: Order! Order! The member will resume his seat. No—the member did warn me that it was going to be a slightly longer answer.Rt Hon Winston Peters: In the census questioning was there any category for us to find out how many loud-mouth buffoons we have in New Zealand?SPEAKER: Order! No. [Interruption] Order! Order! Members will resume their seats and they will be quiet and I will remind the Deputy Prime Minister of his obligation as the longest-serving member of the House to provide a good example to other members. And if he fails to again during this sitting session he will spend some time back in his office.Dr Jian Yang: Will Census 2018 provide reduced-quality data for issues such as unpaid work living in temporary accommodation and family relationships?Hon JAMES SHAW: As the Government Statistician indicated yesterday there will be some gaps—notably with iwi affiliation data and with some information arising from some of the questions to do with household data. It is really important to note of course that the census is not the only source of data that the Government has and that we run the General Social Survey and the household economic survey. In fact this Government increased or tripled the sample size for the household economic survey in order to get more accurate information including about the kinds of questions that the member is asking about. Dr Jian Yang: How can the success of the upcoming well-being Budget be tested if the most recent reliable baseline on things such as unpaid work living in temporary accommodation and family relationships is from 2013?Hon JAMES SHAW: The member has a question about the time line of the census and I just want to compare this to previous expectations around time lines. SPEAKER: No. The member will resume his seat. He will answer the question. Hon JAMES SHAW: As I understand the question the member is suggesting that the census information will be out of date by the time it is published and I want to correct that. In the course of a normal census the first release of initial data is usually about six months after census day. Other data sets would then be released progressively over a period of 12 to 18 months after that first release. There has been a 12-month delay to the first release of census data from 2018 but Stats NZ will now endeavour to compress the remaining releases to approximately nine months. That means that the overall Census 2018 programme is likely to run only three to six months behind a regular census.Kiritapu Allan: How has administrative data been used to complement the data collected for census 2018?Hon JAMES SHAW: Thank you for asking the question and I would encourage Mr Brownlee to listen to the answer to this one. Stats NZ have compiled a file of administrative data from sources including education health ACC and Inland Revenue records. This is reliable data about real people and is not made up as Mr Brownlee continues to suggest. Stats NZ then compared this with the census forms to establish who was missing from the census data. By using this administrative data Stats NZ have been able to create a data set that includes records for 4.7 million people. This is 1.2 percent lower than their estimated population for census day compared to 2.4 percent lower in the 2013 census. Stats NZ are therefore confident that they will be able to produce a range of robust data including the use of defining electoral boundaries and will begin releasing census 2018 data from 23 September this year. Dr Jian Yang: What information has he received by consultation with the Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations in regard to the impact of the inability to properly count iwi affiliation on upcoming Treaty settlement claims? Hon JAMES SHAW: There is a misperception that not releasing official counts means that there will be no information at all and this is incorrect. While Stats NZ have said that they will not be able to produce official statistics using the iwi affiliation information they have gathered the information that they do have can still be made available to be used in the most appropriate ways. Government agencies have actually never been great at collecting iwi affiliation data. This is a gap in our administrative data. Stats NZ will now seek to address this gap so that we do build up a much more comprehensive and accurate picture of iwi affiliation over time. While not being able to release official statistical counts for iwi is a significant loss Stats NZ have spent time talking to iwi Māori to understand their data needs and are working with them to address any consequences of this. I also just want to emphasise that for information on Māori descent and Māori ethnicity data the 2018 data set will actually be more comprehensive than the 2013 census.Hon Nanaia Mahuta: Is the Minister aware or has the Minister heard where iwi are collecting their own sets of data of members registered to the tribe that often that is more reliable in terms of how they make contact with their iwi members than what's on the Statistics New Zealand database?Hon JAMES SHAW: Yes I have. In fact Stats NZ have been working closely with iwi Māori to make sure that the information that we're collecting from the census as well as from other official surveys and administrative data can be used to supplement the information that's being collected by iwi about their own members and to produce more accurate data sets for iwi.Kiritapu Allan: Will the data be ready and of good enough quality for electoral boundaries?Hon JAMES SHAW: Yes it will. As I said the—SPEAKER: Order! The member's answered the question.