3. Question No. 3—FinanceHon PAUL GOLDSMITH (National) to the Minister of FinanceQuestion No. 3—Finance3. Hon PAUL GOLDSMITH (National) to the Minister of Finance: Is he concerned that the Treasury considers it is likely we will see overall New Zealand GDP growth fall below Budget forecasts" and what domestic policy decisions if any are behind this slower growth?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON (Minister of Finance): In addition to my answers in oral questions yesterday regarding the same partial quote I would simply add that it is Treasury's job to forecast and therefore I am not concerned that they are doing their job. In answer to the second part of the question I reject the premise. It is my belief that the domestic policy decisions we are making are ensuring that New Zealand's GDP growth is stronger and forecast to be stronger than the countries we compare ourselves to such as Australia the UK Canada and the OECD average.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Does he expect that the Reserve Bank's capital requirement changes announced today will increase or lower growth over the next five years?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: The bank itself has indicated that over the medium term they believe that it will actually increase GDP growth. I know that that view is contested by others but that is the view of the Reserve Bank.SPEAKER: Question No. 4 Willow-Jean Prime.Hon Paul Goldsmith: No supplementary.SPEAKER: Well sorry. I looked at the member and he didn't stand up.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Well I was on my way; I just hadn't started.SPEAKER: The member will resume—the member will go down again. The member might've thought he was on his way to standing up but it actually requires a physical movement. I will wind it back and give him another chance.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Very gracious. Whose estimate does he prefer on the likely impact on retail interest rates for that decision the Reserve Bank's 0.2 percent or the ANZ's 0.3 to 0.6 percent on mortgage rates?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I of course have confidence in the Reserve Bank.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Why did he not insist that the Reserve Bank release a full cost-benefit analysis of its proposal to increase the bank capital before they released the decision?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: There is a very comprehensive analysis that the Reserve Bank has indeed released and there's a summary of it that I think is already available for people. They undertook a long period of consultation independent analysis was used and they have done that analysis. Clearly not everyone is going to agree with it; that's quite clear particularly the four large Australian-owned banks who clearly have a significant interest in the matter that's at hand here. What I hope is that they will now focus on what really matters which is making sure that Kiwis' money is safe.Hon Paul Goldsmith: What difference does it make to New Zealanders if the economy is growing at around 2 percent as it is now instead of over 3 percent as it was in 2017?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Well we all know that economic growth can improve living standards so that's the difference that economic growth can make. But as we've traversed many times in this House across the world rates of economic growth have been slowing. In New Zealand they have also been slowing but they have been slowing at a far better rate in terms of New Zealanders because we continue to outperform those that we compare ourselves to.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Isn't it true that a slower economy as we have in New Zealand creates fewer opportunities for New Zealanders to get ahead?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: What we have is a situation where still in New Zealand today in the middle of a global slow-down there are more opportunities for New Zealand relative to the countries that we compare ourselves to. Mr Goldsmith knows we are an open export-based economy. We are susceptible to global trends but the economy is in good shape to withstand them.Hon Paul Goldsmith: So how can an open export-led economy be doing so poorly at a time when we've had historically high export prices as we have now?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I utterly reject the premise of that question. The economy is not doing poorly and Mr Goldsmith needs to actually get out there and listen to people who are working hard every single day to ensure that we create jobs that we do have economic growth that is better than it is in many other parts of the world. The New Zealand economy is in good shape. We're in the middle of a global slow-down but we have the resources to manage that.Hon Paul Goldsmith: So is the Minister saying that he is content with 0.5 percent per person growth?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I am never content and all of my colleagues know that on a daily basis. What I do know though is that the New Zealand economy relative to others in the world is doing relatively well. We're in good shape and the member needs to get on board with the fact that New Zealanders are a positive optimistic bunch—unlike what we see over there."