Tremain Chris: Debate on Budget Policy Statement 
Tremain Chris: Debate on Budget Policy Statement 
[Volume:670;Page:17072] 
CHRIS TREMAIN (National—Napier) 
: 
 It is my privilege to round up the Budget Policy Statement debate this evening and to remind people out there in New Zealand that the Budget Policy Statement is in fact a forward-looking document looking at the future of New Zealand. I will start by briefly looking at this forward-looking document and in particular at the fiscal strategy of New Zealand and what the document projects both in terms of revenue and the balance sheet. I think it is important that we do look forward. There has been a lot of time spent tonight looking back in hindsight at what happened in the early 2000s and recently but I think we need to focus particularly in light of the earthquake on a forward-looking vision for this country a go-forward intention. 
In terms of the fiscal strategy it is clear that we reached the lowest position in our operating deficit in the 2010-11 year with an $11.1 billion deficit. But from here on in the projections are good with the deficit reducing to the point where in 2015 we break even and by the early 2020s there will be significant surpluses for the country again. So let us be under no illusions: this is a good-looking Budget Policy Statement. In terms of our debt profile yes I acknowledge that we are incurring significant debt as we go through a difficult period during this recession as we get out of it as we fund education as we fund health and as we fund the earthquake recovery. But the reality is that this Budget Policy Statement projects that by 2015 we will peak with our debt at about 28.5 percent of GDP which will still be one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the OECD. From that point on as we make surpluses and are able to pay down that debt and as our economy grows relative to that debt our debt profile will reduce. So by the 2020s we will be back down to about 20 percent of debt to GDP. So we are looking forward in a great position. 
We have to remember that this Budget Policy Statement was written before the earthquake. We have to acknowledge that there will be an additional hit on the books as a result of the earthquake. I will make a few comments about that. I had the privilege of going down to Christchurch to help some of my colleagues and to help in some of the suburbs of Christchurch. The thing I want to say about it which a lot of people are not recognising—and it is a terrible tragedy—is that it was quite localised. Some suburbs have been terribly affected but suburbs close by have not been affected in nearly the same way. The reality is that a supermarket in an affected suburb is no longer open but the supermarket in the suburb next door is open and the same goes for petrol stations. So there will be some real winners and losers in that retail sector. Some supermarkets will really struggle but others will be in for a significant gain. The same goes for light manufacturing in Christchurch. As one drives around the back of the airport towards the A and P showgrounds where Federated Farmers are based one sees that all the light industry was up and running a couple of days after the earthquake had happened. That is good for Christchurch. Many of those light manufacturers and exporters are still operational. 
The central business district clearly is in a significant situation and is a terrible disaster area but many of the businesses provide services. Although businesses like PricewaterhouseCoopers and other businesses that provide accounting and financial services will take an immediate hit—there is no doubt about that—I think we will be surprised at how quickly they are able to re-establish themselves in other premises and get under way. I believe in these people. The entrepreneurial spirit of Christchurch people—the innovators out there—will lead them to find ways to get on with their businesses as quickly as possible. Television One interviewed a hairdresser who had moved out of town and had brought his clients with him. He was operating in the front part of a clothes store. Those businesses will get up and running quicker than we think. Although they will take a hit and certainly our Budget Policy Statement projections will be hurt I am confident we will get through this and I have confidence in the people of Christchurch. I am very proud of what they are doing. 
The other thing that excites me about going forward and looking forward is what is happening in the provinces in places like my own province of Hawke’s Bay and Napier. Today rather than dwell on the past I will focus on what the business people there are talking about and how they are looking forward in the environment and part of the structure that the Government is providing for them. I will start with farming. I rang a couple of guys up in Hawke’s Bay like Jeremy Absolom. He is on the board of Silver Fern Farms and runs Rissington Breedline. He is extremely excited about the future of the lamb and beef industry in the country. Silver Fern Farms has been the beneficiary of the Primary Growth Partnership. The Opposition talks about cuts to investment in research and development but there has been massive investment in research and development through the Primary Growth Partnership with the likes of Silver Fern Farms benefiting from it—and it is very excited. 
On Sunday I had the privilege of going to Napier’s Great Long Lunch where I met Gary Collins. He has a farm on the Waipatiki-Napier road. Mr Collins said: “For the first time in a long time I have nothing to grizzle about.” That is a comment from a farmer in New Zealand. He said: “For the first time in a long time I have nothing to grizzle about. I have had good grass growth through the January and February period. My lamb prices are $148 to $150. Wool prices are 50 percent higher than they were. I am actually going to make money for the first time in a long time. And while I use up my tax losses eventually I will have to start spending or paying tax again.” That is exciting news. 
Our apple orchardists have been in a difficult position for many years. I do not think we really appreciate how good the announcement by Julia Gillard is for the New Zealand apple and horticultural industry. It is huge. It will mean that apples end up in Australia years and years before they would have got in otherwise even though the World Trade Organization’s decision was pretty straightforward. Apollo Pac which is owned by a guy called Ross Beaton has a thousand employees in Hawke’s Bay. He is really excited about the opportunity to use the cool store to deliver containers out of the Port of Napier into the eastern ports of Australia 52 weeks of the year. It is exciting news. He is really excited about his business. 
Just 2 weeks ago we were at the McCain Foods factory with the Prime Minister to announce a $20 million investment in a new pea and corn line at the plant. It will bring new growth new jobs and new opportunities for farmers. Businesses create the jobs that create the growth. I am really excited about the future in that regard. 
Another example is Pan Pac Forest Products up in Hawke’s Bay which is one of the bigger employers up there. It produces pulp and paper and is also a big sawmill. It is investing tens of millions of dollars in the sawmill bringing on another shift of workers—not minimum wage employees or those on $15 an hour; they are earning $30 or $35 an hour. Another 40 to 45 jobs are being brought in through the extra shift. These industries see a big future in this country. It is absolutely fantastic. 
Another exciting example is the light manufacturing industry. I was interested to hear David Parker going on about how important these industries were. Well it is happening now. The light manufacturing industry has a very exciting future ahead of it. I spoke today to Hamish Whyte from Furnware a furniture manufacturer. Domestically it has been pretty tough but in respect of exports his company is going from strength to strength. Furnware will double its exports to Australia next year based on a low dollar. 
David Shearer 
: Going backwards. 
CHRIS TREMAIN 
: How is it going backwards when it is doubling its exports? 
David Shearer 
: You can’t talk it up. 
CHRIS TREMAIN 
: Hardly! These guys are very excited about their future. It is all good. [ 
Interruption 
] Labour members do not like it when they hear the positive stuff. They do not like it at all. They do not want to hear about businesses that are getting out there creating jobs creating income and being excited about the future because it does not go along with Labour’s story. 
Our story is that we are very excited about the future of this country. This Budget Policy Statement is putting together a framework. We have an excellent plan for the economy and many many businesses are getting on with the job and doing a fantastic job for this country. Thank you.