Brownlee Gerry: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to Ministers 
Brownlee Gerry: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to Ministers 
[Volume:646;Page:15628] 
6.  
GERRY BROWNLEE (National—Ilam) 
 to the  
Minister of Energy 
: How confident is he that New Zealand will get through the coming winter without electricity shortages? 
Hon DAVID PARKER (Minister of Energy) 
: 
 I am advised there is a low likelihood that we will have serious electricity shortages this winter—less than 5 percent probability. For that low probability to become a reality the current severe drought would have to extend beyond autumn or an unexpected major failure of large thermal plant would have to occur. 
Gerry Brownlee 
: Has the Minister seen the Transpower statement yesterday that stated that the hydro lake levels are down to just 65 percent of average thus putting them in the minzone level set by the Electricity Commission and that the Electricity Commission itself has raised its risk meter to high which indicates that New Zealanders face a grave risk of cold showers no heat and browned out factories; if so what conservation plans does he think should be put in place now or will he continue with his own view that there is no problem? 
Hon DAVID PARKER 
: I am aware of the steps that the Electricity Commission and Transpower have taken—in fact I go over those issues daily. But it is not correct to say that as a consequence of the minzone being breached there is a serious risk of brownouts and cold showers. 
Charles Chauvel 
: What improvements have been made under this Government to the management of winter electricity supplies? 
Hon DAVID PARKER 
: Since the Labour-led Government established the Electricity Commission we have better and more transparent information about lake levels security margins and trigger points for more action. As a consequence of this system Transpower and the industry are already better managing the situation as evidenced today by comments made by the Major Electricity Users Group. 
Gerry Brownlee 
: What is the purpose of the minzone and the Electricity Commission risk meter if it is not to warn New Zealanders that there are likely to be electricity shortages this winter; and why does the Minister continue—against the opinions of so many others who have been in the industry for so many years—with his own particular view on this matter? 
Hon DAVID PARKER 
: The minzone is triggered when based on historic inflow records going back over 70 years there is 1 year out of those 70 years of records that if the position was to be replicated this year would result in an electricity shortage—1 year in 70. That is why the risk of that becoming a reality is less than 5 percent at the moment. 
Gerry Brownlee 
: Does the Minister recall explaining to the House in February that the reason we had an impending electricity crisis was a unique combination of events—the Stratford station was out but is now back Pole 1 was out but is now partially back and the Waikato had warm temperatures that have now cooled—and if most of the unique combination of events have improved will he admit that the problem is due in no small part to Labour’s failure to see sufficient new generation being built to ensure security of supply? 
Hon DAVID PARKER 
: No because it is not so. 
Peter Brown 
: Noting those answers is the Minister aware that power prices are a significant concern to the general public and can he assure the House that should lake levels not improve to the degree hoped for he will take early precautions to ensure that power prices do not go through the roof? 
Hon DAVID PARKER 
: Household consumers are not exposed to the spot market so whatever happens to spot market prices over winter will not affect them. Of course it is important that in a time of water shortage the price increases in order to encourage those large industrial users who do have a choice about whether they use more or less power— 
R Doug Woolerton 
: What about the oldies? 
Hon DAVID PARKER 
: Well the oldies are actually residential consumers generally. 
Gerry Brownlee 
: Is it the Minister’s position that there is no prospect or possibility of serious electricity shortages this winter—just a slim 5 percent chance? 
Hon DAVID PARKER 
: As I have said the probability of a serious shortage this winter is less than 5 percent. 
Gerry Brownlee 
: After 48 percent in residential price increases over the last 6 years and millions of dollars of consumer levies in payment to the Electricity Commission why can the Minister not give the simple assurance to the House that the lights will stay on the heating will stay on and industry will not be disrupted this winter? 
Hon DAVID PARKER 
: No Minister of Energy can give an absolute assurance of that because no Minister of Energy controls the weather. Were it otherwise that member would have to look out for lightning bolts! 
Rt Hon Winston Peters 
: I seek leave to table the latest weather reports and also the winter energy storage graph which suggests that it has been raining and it has been pouring but old man Gerry— 
Document not tabled.