12. Question No. 12—StatisticsDr JIAN YANG (National) to the Minister of StatisticsQuestion No. 12—Statistics12. Dr JIAN YANG (National) to the Minister of Statistics: Does he stand by his answer to oral question No. 12 on 12 April 2018 that What I would say is that this census looks to be more successful than previous censuses that we're meeting all of our targets and that that person whoever wrote that article should stop believing everything that he sees on Twitter"; and if not why not?Hon JAMES SHAW (Minister of Statistics): I feel I covered a fair amount of territory on this topic yesterday so I will just say yes.Dr Jian Yang: Was The Northland Age editor Peter Jackson incorrect when he described the census as showing all the hallmarks of being a shambles and if not why not?Hon JAMES SHAW: Well as I said the previous two times I've been asked about this in the House when I said this census looks to be more successful than previous censuses I was referring to online response rates and other targets which at that point Statistics New Zealand have advised me they were on track to meet or exceed. There are significant successes with the 2018 census. The 4.7 million population count is a better count than the 2013 census. There is more comprehensive Māori ethnicity and Māori descent than ever before. Online participation was substantially higher than expected and Statistics New Zealand is now several years ahead of their work programme that was signed off by the previous Government in the business case in 2015.Hon Gerry Brownlee: All made up.SPEAKER: Order! Just before the member asks his supplementary Mr Brownlee you are now being repetitious.Dr Jian Yang: Does he agree with Victoria University School of Mathematics and Statistics Professor Richard Arnold's statement on census 2018 "It is disastrous."; if not why not?Hon JAMES SHAW: Well as I have said now several times yes I do disagree with that. The member and others have failed to distinguish between the outputs of the census versus the inputs of the census. We've always said that there were clearly problems in the field collection phase of the census but if the member was paying attention to what the Government Statistician said this previous Monday the output of the census is starting to look very successful indeed. There are gaps in the data and we are working very hard to fill those gaps but at the level of data that's required for some of the most important uses such as district health board funding—[Interruption] See the issue here seems to be that the National Party are attempting to weaponise their own incompetence. I would suggest that they allow the Public Service to continue the good work that they have been doing in line with the business case that was signed off in 2015 by the previous Cabinet.Rt Hon Winston Peters: Is the Minister saying that the northernmost newspaper The Northland Age is pointing out the failure of an online attack with respect to the census when there should have been a backup—and who was responsible for not getting that ready?Hon JAMES SHAW: As I said yesterday I am reserving my judgment on the execution of this service until I receive the report of the independent review conducted by a management consultant Murray Jack and the former Canadian deputy chief statistician Connie Graziadei which I'm expecting before July and at that point I will pass judgment on every aspect of the budget including the decisions of the previous Government to conduct and fund the census the way that they did.Dr Jian Yang: Can he explain how Census 2018 could have an optimal output but a suboptimal input?Hon JAMES SHAW: Well yes actually and I'm very glad that the member asked that question.SPEAKER: I don't know if the House is going to thank the member for asking that.Hon JAMES SHAW: So as the previous Government intended what the census output includes is a mix of data that's gathered as a result of the census forms that people participate in and a set of administrative data the kind of data that Government collects all the time about people and that Mr Brownlee insists is made up. That kind of information is things like births deaths and marriages which Mr Brownlee insists is made-up data. It includes things like ACC which Mr Brownlee insists is made-up data. It includes things like education records that Mr Brownlee insists is made-up data. It includes things like health information that Mr Brownlee insists is made-up data and that data—real data about real people—is added to the census file from the forms that are gathered during the census process. Now the data file of 4.7 million people that the Government Statistician referred to on Monday a more accurate file than the 2013 census which the National Government was also responsible for was composed 89 percent from census forms and 11 percent from administrative data. That is completely in line with the long-term transformation of the census that that Government signed off on in 2015 and you should congratulate them for their foresight.Dr Jian Yang: Does he agree with Massey University Professor of Statistics Professor Paul Spoonley who said yesterday "I think that DHBs at this point are going to be incredibly nervous about having a good census data set that tells them what sort of catchment they are working in and the needs of that catchment"?Hon JAMES SHAW: No I do not agree. I do not agree with him and I do not agree with him because—and I repeat—as the Government Statistician said on Monday we have a more accurate population count file than we have ever had before. And that is the kind of information that gets used for DHB funding and electorate boundaries. And if the National Party want to continue to try and undermine—SPEAKER: Order! I think that it now certainly meets any definition of tedious repetition.Hon Gerry Brownlee: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. That part of the questioning today is extremely important. The prospect of there being electoral boundaries drawn on information that many people have less than a high degree of confidence in is I think quite dangerous for our democracy.SPEAKER: The member has asked for the member to have an extension of time and feels like he wants to have more. I'm happy to grant Mr Brownlee his point of order and ask Mr Shaw in fact to start that supplementary answer again. Hon JAMES SHAW: Well certainly. I'd be quite happy to do that—[Interruption] SPEAKER: Order!Hon JAMES SHAW: —and maybe if Mr Brownlee had been paying attention he would have understood why—[Interruption]. Well he's clearly not interested so I'll sit down. [Interruption] SPEAKER: Order! Now part of the problem I have is that there are a number of members who complain when the answers are extensive and then we have very senior members on my left asking Mr Shaw to take us through it. [Interruption] Well Mr Shaw can you take us through it quickly. Hon JAMES SHAW: One more time—just one more time. So by using administrative data Stats NZ has been able to create a data set that includes records for 4.7 million people. This is 1.2 percent lower than their estimated population for census day compared to 2.4 percent lower in the 2013 census. Now what Mr Brownlee is asking about is whether we can trust administrative data. What I am saying is that if he cannot trust administrative data there is literally no data in the Government that he should ever have been able to rely on while he was a Minister in Government because that administrative data is the kind of data that the Government collects all the time. The long-term business case that that Government signed off on in 2014 called for the increased use of administrative data over the next two or three census cycles and what we are now doing is what that Government had planned for the 2023 census and it is working. Dr Jian Yang: Does he agree with Brian Easton who described the census mess as so serious that "the response gap was so large it could make the data useless for research"? Hon JAMES SHAW: No. Dr Jian Yang: Does he agree with former Labour Party president Mr Mike Williams that Census 2018 was "an industrial-strength fiasco"; if not why not?Hon JAMES SHAW: Well I didn't agree with that the first time the member put it to me a couple of months back and I still don't agree with it now. SPEAKER: Has the member finished? That concludes oral questions."