Carter David; Williams PotoRt Hon DAVID CARTER (National): Madam Assistant Speaker it is absolutely a pleasure for me to take a call in this three-hour debate the third reading of the Appropriation (2018/19 Estimates) Bill. But first of all I want to accept the challenge that's just been issued by Dr Deborah Russell when she said she has not yet heard any member of the Opposition acknowledge there's a crisis in housing. And I want to say today I do acknowledge there is a crisis in housing and that crisis goes by the name of the Hon Phil Twyford. We watch him day after day. First of all I admit there's not a lot of level of confidence for any of the Ministers on the other side but to watch the Hon Phil Twyford stand day after day and attempt to justify his KiwiBuild programme which I'm reliably informed is 100000 houses over the next 10 years which equals 10000 houses each year and we're nine months through the first year—and the last time I recall the Hon Phil Twyford putting a tally on how his KiwiBuild was going I think it was one-eighth—18 houses. So Dr Deborah Russell there is a crisis in housing and that crisis is the Hon Phil Twyford.I've had the pleasure of listening to most of this debate in the House this afternoon and what intrigues me about the debate is there's clearly two perceptions as to how successful the Budget was. One is the Minister of Finance and Professor" Tabuteau and Michael Wood and Dr Deborah Russell saying there's nothing wrong with the economy. We had the Labour member for Christchurch Central come into the House in the debate and say that the current Labour - New Zealand First - Green Government inherited and I quote "a decrepit economy". Well let me remind Dr Duncan Webb that this Labour - New Zealand First - Green Government inherited one of the strongest economies in the OECD. Not performing so well now but it was one of the strongest economies in the OECD and if you want to compare it with any country at that time look how it was outperforming our nearest large neighbour Australia. And now they are outgunning us successfully.Jamie Strange: What was the economy based on?Rt Hon DAVID CARTER: And Jamie Strange interjects and says "What was the economy based on?" Let me tell him. It was based on sound economic policies.What we've seen is the politicians on the Government side arguing everything's fine and as I've listened to the Opposition members they've pointed out that things aren't quite right with this economy. I say to Jamie Strange who's a new member and not renowned for his economic credibility: listen to the business people. Listen to the people who are out there trying to make the economy work because what that member will learn if he survives the next election—and that's doubtful but on the assumption that he does what he'll learn—is that governments don't make the economy go round; it's business that makes the economy go round.If he wants further proof of where this economy is going have a look at the latest figures from Treasury. The apolitical Public Service that the Prime Minister announced yesterday was now eligible for another award—that was the big announcement post Cabinet. The apolitical Treasury has revised down the growth figures for the New Zealand economy. Adrian Orr the Governor of the Reserve Bank came before the Finance and Expenditure Committee last Thursday and I quote for Jamie Strange—who's now gone quiet and hangs his head in shame—let me just repeat what Adrian Orr said chapter 3 page 13—Jamie Strange: Teach us.Rt Hon DAVID CARTER: Listen to this Mr Strange: "GDP growth slowed in … March 2018 quarter. We expect recent weakness in growth to persist in the near term." So you've got business lacking confidence. You've got the Reserve Bank saying that growth figures have changed and turned down and you've got Treasury saying growth figures have turned back down and the Labour Government refuses to accept it. I say there's a looming crisis for this economy and I don't make that prediction lightly. Let me take you through a few reasons why.The first one's debt. I remember the last campaign—I wasn't actively campaigning but I remember it well—and the then National Minister of Finance came out and talked about a fiscal hole of $11.7 billion. Everybody mostly pushed by the media said he was wrong wrong wrong and no economist would back him. Yet we've recently had the revelation that $6 billion of debt was hidden—hidden and I use that word in the kindest way I possibly can—by the Minister of Finance the Hon Grant Robertson transferred into the books of the New Zealand Transport Agency and Housing New Zealand. And then you've got respected economist Cameron Bagrie coming out and saying "I think I got it wrong." He's honest this man. He thinks he got it wrong and he thinks we've got a looming fiscal hole of probably in excess of $11.7 billion. Is it any wonder that business confidence is declining?The next problem you've got is the quality of expenditure. Take the free fees for tertiary students for the first year. Let me tell you as a dad of two students who aren't in their first year they're pretty annoyed about that. Why should one particular small echelon of those attending university get free fees? But the more important thing is that there's been no increase in students enrolled in tertiary education. In fact there're 900 less students enrolled than there was. So that $2.8 billion expenditure is questionable in my mind.And then I turn to the $3 billion slush fund called the Provincial Growth Fund. But all members in this House know it's nothing more than a slush fund and to listen to the Hon Shane Jones question time after question time attempting to justify some of the projects he's spending his money on—50 percent of it so far in one province alone called Northland. We all know it's a slush fund and I think taxpayers who are working hard day after day after day and paying their taxes deserve to know that their taxes are being well spent and that is not happening with that Provincial Growth Fund or slush fund. So who's winning in this Budget? Who's really in charge of this economy and this Government? It's the Rt Hon Winston Peters. Who got the big expenditure items? It wasn't the Labour caucus; they got rolled. Three billion dollars in a slush fund another billion dollars to diplomats and for foreign aid in the Pacific Islands—all questionable expenditure.I want to conclude now briefly on why business confidence continues to fall and will continue to fall. It's all around industrial relations. And what we saw today in the House during question time is that the Prime Minister hasn't got a grip on what the proposed legislation is going to be. We've got teachers on strike tomorrow. We had nurses on strike recently. The nurses got double-digit pay increases. Education support workers apparently today have received a 30 percent wage rise—probably some of that is well justified I suspect. But what you're going to see is the public sector pay increases continue because the Labour Government during their campaign overpromised. And that's only going to continue to add to the lack of business confidence and when businesses lack confidence—and Jamie Strange should listen to this—they stop increasing employment opportunities. And that's the next thing that I predict you'll see: a rise in unemployment. And again you can disguise it any which way you want—work for the dole which you don't believe in and which the Government's recently brought in—but if businesses lose confidence and stop employing then this economy will continue to grind grind grind. And there's a plus for that: it makes it easier for the National Opposition—ASSISTANT SPEAKER (Poto Williams): Order! I apologise to the member but your time has expired."