Graham Kennedy: Oral Questions — Questions to MinistersText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeGraham Kennedy: Oral Questions — Questions to Ministers[Sitting date: 16 March 2016. Volume:712;Page:9792. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]6.Dr KENNEDY GRAHAM (Green) to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by his statement “The single-biggest gainers out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership are dairy farmers”?Rt Hon JOHN KEY (Prime Minister): Yes. As I said in the House yesterday the biggest area of tariff reduction under the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is dairy. This is supported by the estimates in the Trans-Pacific Partnership National Interest Analysis published by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. For the member’s edification if he looked at Table 1.2 the estimated benefits under the national interest analysis is $274 million in tariff savings. By far the biggest is dairy at $96 million.Dr Kennedy Graham: In full knowledge on all our parts of those facts how will the TPP help dairy farmers now when New Zealand’s Expert paper No. 5 shows that even when the TPP is fully implemented the tariff reductions are more likely to benefit processors and retailers rather than the farmers themselves?Rt Hon JOHN KEY: The TPP over time like all of the free-trade agreements that New Zealand has signed will help our exporters. A substantial part of our exports still come from the agricultural sector so it will help them. But equally there are many things that we can do to continue to help them: better planning laws—we welcome the Green Party if they want to support us on Resource Management Act reform; better irrigation for farmers—we welcome the Green Party if they want to support us in that area; and free-trade agreements including TPP—we welcome the Green Party’s support if they want to do that.James Shaw: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. Dr Graham’s question was in relation to how the TPP would help farmers now not about what Green Party policy would do in the future.Mr SPEAKER: It was not only that question. If it had been just that I could help but he then went on and incorporated a reference to how it would help processors and—from memory—retailers more than it would help dairy farmers. If questions are short and sharp it is easier for me to assist.Dr Kennedy Graham: How will the TPP help farmers now when the expected benefit from dairy would be $40 per New Zealander per year in 1947 when all of the tariff reductions are finally in place?Rt Hon JOHN KEY: The TPP will not help things that happened just after World War II.Dr Kennedy Graham: How will the 2.2 percent tariff saving according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade’s own figures in 30 years’ time do anything to help farmers today?Rt Hon JOHN KEY: Free-trade agreements are about the future ultimately and that has to be ratified. It has not been ratified today by the parties but if one goes and has a look at the New Zealand - China free-trade agreement where the estimates on tariff reductions were in the order of about $150 million and the benefits were roughly $1 billion—actually that was the best modelling we saw; it turned out to be about 11 times more successful than they thought. In the case of the TPP the numbers are much greater than that. They are $274 million and about $3 billion worth of benefits. Secondly we are already seeing quite a number of countries considering joining the TPP in addition to this. But in the end actually even if it just does what the national interest analysis says it will save dairy farmers $100 million. If the Green Party does not think that matters that is fair enough. Again they should join New Zealand First and go out and tell people.