Parker David: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to Ministers 
Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume 
Parker David: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to Ministers 
[Sitting date: 07 November 2012. Volume:685;Page:6349. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.] 
4. 
Hon DAVID PARKER (Labour) 
 to the  
Minister of Finance 
: In Budget 2011 which year was unemployment forecast to fall below 5 percent and when does Treasury now predict unemployment to fall below 5 percent? 
Hon BILL ENGLISH (Minister of Finance) 
: 
 In Budget 2011 Treasury predicted unemployment would fall below 5 percent in the 2012-13 year. Right now it is updating its forecast for the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update which will be released in December. I would expect that it would be some years later that unemployment will fall below 5 percent. 
Hon David Parker 
: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. That question was on notice and it did not ask what Treasury’s future projections were. It asked what its current projection is—when it predicts unemployment to fall below 5 percent. 
Mr SPEAKER 
: If the Minister has that information that would be helpful. 
Hon BILL ENGLISH 
: I am just checking the information further in the Budget. If by “now” the member means Budget 2012 which is the most recent Treasury projection back in May it forecast unemployment would go below 5 percent in 2015-16. 
Hon David Parker 
: Does he stand by his election promise to create 170000 more jobs by 2015; if so how many extra jobs have been created since that promise was made? 
Hon BILL ENGLISH 
: It was a forecast not a promise because unlike the Labour Party the Government does not actually create jobs directly. In fact Government jobs are shrinking. Government jobs are shrinking. It is businesses that create jobs and there have been tens of thousands of new jobs. There are more New Zealanders than ever in a job today. 
Hon David Parker 
: According to the quarterly employment survey did the number of filled full-time jobs increase or decrease in the September quarter? 
Hon BILL ENGLISH 
: I think the quarterly employment survey had the number of full-time jobs decreasing and the number of part-time jobs increasing. Part of the increase in those part-time jobs is likely to include people who are responding to the Government’s clear signals about changes in welfare policy and therefore are taking up part-time work where they were not before. We regard that as success. Of course we would like to see more full-time jobs but in the last quarter there were not more full-time jobs. 
Hon David Parker 
: According to yesterday’s quarterly employment survey are there more jobs or fewer jobs in the manufacturing industry than there were a year ago? 
Hon BILL ENGLISH 
: I think the survey shows there are fewer jobs in the manufacturing industry but they still have not been able to manufacture a crisis in the way that the Opposition is trying to. The fact is that we have grumpy growth. We are going to grow between 2 and 3 percent pretty consistently. Some sectors and some businesses are losing jobs; some sectors and some businesses are flat out trying to recruit people—in fact they cannot get the skills that they need. We would expect that this will be the pattern for the foreseeable future. 
Hon David Parker 
: In the history of the quarterly employment survey data series which goes back to 1989 has there ever been a quarter with fewer filled jobs in manufacturing than the September 2012 quarter? 
Hon BILL ENGLISH 
: I do not know the answer to that but I would warn the member that you cannot run economic policy off quarterly surveys particularly when quarterly figures are so volatile. 
Hon David Parker 
: I seek leave to table a document from the Parliamentary Library showing the number of filled jobs in the manufacturing sector is the lowest recorded since the data series began in 1989. 
Mr SPEAKER 
: Leave is sought to table that document. Is there any objection? There is no objection. 









Document by leave laid on the Table of the House.