Bayly Andrew; Rurawhe AdrianANDREW BAYLY (National—Hunua): We will fix that."—isn't that beautiful? I've just been sitting here and for a start my first observation is I haven't heard one of these people talk about the Prime Minister's speech—just nothing. It's dead silence. But I've heard these lovely expressions. I loved the one before: "We have our eyes firmly fixed ahead." Well if you don't normally you fall over. I don't know—it's some sunset going out there. And this sort of "Bring it on let's talk about housing."—54 houses actually. I just can't understand why some of the members who have just spoken want to highlight that as your number one issue.I'm just going to have a bit of a ramble here. Just over the last couple of months since I've had the opportunity to speak in the House—I just want to talk about some of the economic situations and of course we've got a Government that likes to portray that everything is going swimmingly well. Well it's not actually. In the last of couple of months since we reconvened we've seen the growth rate of New Zealand drop quite substantially. So under a National Government when we were in power we were achieving growth rates of 3.5 to 3.6 percent. We are now at 3.1 percent and every projection that the Reserve Bank have put out—and we had a meeting with the Reserve Bank today—has a figure starting with 2 percent next year. That is actually a travesty because in many ways the impact hurts most on people but for the Government it means much less income—much less income that they talk about for all these social programmes they want to do. Every 1 percent drop in GDP is roughly a billion bucks—just a bit under. So that cuts to the core of their ability to govern and to be able to do the programmes they want. But through their poor management—and I'm going to talk about that in a minute—it means less revenue.The other thing is it's a loss of opportunity. It's a loss of opportunity for New Zealanders because it's great to say we're growing but we could be growing so much faster in New Zealand and that is the travesty about this. I just think what it leads to is a loss of security for people particularly for their jobs and particularly for the small businesses that most New Zealanders work in because when you have that environment there is uncertainty and risk. Even the Reserve Bank stated in its Monetary Policy Statement—they've noted this and I'm just quoting from them—"There is a risk that we have understated GDP growth" and it's shown to be more substantial than they believe at the moment.Also what's happened is consumption growth: the spending that households go out and buy when they're out shopping has dropped 2 percent from 6 percent two years ago to now just over 3 percent. That type of stuff is the stuff that fuels economies and that makes it more important for New Zealand gives the money for Governments to go and do stuff and it gives the money for people to go and spend and circulate it and make New Zealand a better place to live. That's not taking place.Why is there that uncertainty? Well this is a Government that's brought it on themselves. I know the Prime Minister wants to say it's all international and that unbelievable speech from the Deputy Prime Minister when he was only just the coalition partner—his first inaugural speech—where he said "We are about to go into Government with Labour and it's all about what's happening overseas." Well actually it's not. It's about what's happening here in New Zealand. As a result of the policies of this Labour - New Zealand First Government they have sown the seeds of uncertainty and risk in this economy. We've seen what's happened with industrial relations catering for their union mates. We've seen the issue around overseas investment and all of the stuff that's going on and we're seeing a drop in the uncertainty around that. We've seen the slow but progressive slide in immigration and of course we want to see only reasonable immigrants. We want to see the right immigrants coming to New Zealand but for our certain industries—certainly in the area my colleague Todd Muller here beside me represents—where we do need workers we need those workers and we should be getting them into New Zealand.Of course we've got other things like the idea that's being floated about a capital gains tax—a lovely little proposition. So what happens when people get nervous and businesses in particular?Hon Kris Faafoi: They roll their leaders.ANDREW BAYLY: They stop investing Mr Faafoi. They stop investing and they also stop hiring people and that's the thing that bites into ordinary Kiwis—not us here in this debating chamber but the ordinary Kiwis in our electorates.We've seen the uplift in the unemployment rate in New Zealand. So what does all this mean? What does all this downturn in the economy mean? It means less money. When you've got a Government that sets about doing flabby spend which is what this Government's doing in a number of instances—flabby inefficient spend—what are the other choices? Well then you have a debate about debt and we can already see the Labour Party and the Greens and all that sort of stuff saying "Oh we don't like the debt word. We don't want to have that discipline. We think we should spend more." It's fine if you spend that stuff on good stuff like capital spend like infrastructure like roads like Mill Road in Auckland like the Tauranga one or the Timaru motorways down in the South Island—those are the types of investment that we want to see but not flabby spend.So what do you do if you're the Labour - New Zealand First Government and if you can't raise the debt—and I think there will be a little bit of that in time but what do you do? Well what's the only other option?Hon Louise Upston: Tax.ANDREW BAYLY: Tax. That's right—tax. The incredible thing: this Government in the last 14 months has already put and imposed on ordinary New Zealanders another $2.6 billion of taxes.Hon Kris Faafoi: It's working.ANDREW BAYLY: And they said they weren't going to do it Mr Faafoi. It only takes 14 months to turn that round and say "Oh no." It's a bit like the tram going down Mill Road—"Yes we're going to have it done by 2020." No—14 months later no. No—no.So what are we going to do? I think from our perspective everyone in New Zealand should pay their fair share of tax but no more. But does the Labour - New Zealand First Government regard New Zealanders owners of businesses like that? No they don't. They see them as a cash tin. I think the issue about this is that even without them changing anything from now over the next four years there will be nearly $18 billion of extra revenue taken in by this Government on a per annum basis. That is a heck of a lot of money yet this Government's already talking about additional taxes. That's not enough for them.I think the issue around capital gains tax is going to be a fascinating issue and I cannot wait for the announcement next week. Of course who did they ask to devise it? The architect of some of the most complicated tax reforms in New Zealand—the very person. Of course they've had him out there helping soften up the public on behalf of the Labour - New Zealand First Government. I can't wait to see what happens because that person was the architect of some very complicated reforms and if you want to talk about complication let's talk about capital gains tax. It is complication innate. It is there and it is the single most important issue about the introduction of this new tax.I think the issue with it is that the need for it has not been proven—the need has not been proven. We all agree with the need to support our vulnerable and invest in infrastructure but just to have this rapacious grab for money to fund ill-conceived goals is wrong. I think the issue around here is that there's a perception that by imposing a capital gains tax we are going to target the wealthy in New Zealand. The so-called wealthy—there's this mystical sort of view about it but unfortunately it is middle New Zealand who will be the worst off from a capital gains tax because they're the ones that own the investment properties. Forty percent of properties in New Zealand are owned by mums and dads. They are the ones who are going to be bitterly disappointed when they find out anything about capital gains tax and how it will affect them. It will also affect the 530000 businesses owned by the mums and dads in New Zealand—the hard-working people who only employ one two or three people or maybe none at all. They are the people who are going to be affected by capital gains tax. We cannot wait to see what you come up with next week.ASSISTANT SPEAKER (Adrian Rurawhe): I understand this is a split call. I call the Hon Julie Anne Genter—five minutes."