4. Question No. 4—FinanceHon PAUL GOLDSMITH (National) to the Minister of FinanceQuestion No. 4—FinanceSPEAKER: Question No. 4—the Hon Paul Goldsmith.Hon Shane Jones: Ah Ngāti Epsom". SPEAKER: Order! [Interruption] Order! Was it one or two members who interjected? Mr Jackson as well? Both blaming each other? Both will stand withdraw and apologise.Hon Willie Jackson: I withdraw and apologise. Hon Shane Jones: I withdraw and apologise—"Ngāti Pāora". SPEAKER: No. Look this is a matter that's had some publicity and it's an error made by a member of Parliament and my view is that it should be left there. Frankly I would have thought that the senior member from the North—or the relatively senior member from the North looking in front of him—should know better. He will apologise again.Hon Shane Jones: I withdraw and apologise. Rt Hon WINSTON PETERS (Deputy Prime Minister): I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. I think it's of some moment to anyone in this country who's been here in their ancestry a thousand years who is Māori that people are actually identified to be either that or not. It's not a matter of racism or anything else but I think it's a legitimate thing to raise in this House when someone has the well ignorance to say that someone is Māori and that person himself says he's not I think sorting it out in this House is pretty important. It may be of some embarrassment but that's no reason why we should avoid the silliness which I've seen in other countries where someone was named as you'll recall Pocahontas because of a claim to be Indian. Now if it's still jumping around in the American political system surely we can have our day of fun.SPEAKER: And I'm sure that later in the afternoon when we get to the debate there will be an opportunity for something which is slightly wider. In the interim I could recommend people that they read a very good paper from the Minister coordinating race relations in about 2005 which drew attention to the indigeneity of someone from Wainuiōmata. 4. Hon PAUL GOLDSMITH (National) to the Minister of Finance: Does he have confidence in the Treasury's Budget forecasts?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON (Minister of Finance): Kia ora Mr Speaker. Kia ora Pāora Kōuramete. Yes I have confidence that the Treasury undertook the same rigorous independent process to produce the Budget forecast as it did under the previous Government. And I note that Treasury this year undertook the unprecedented step of updating its economic impact forecast closer to the Budget. I would add that most economists from Treasury to retail banks to the Reserve Bank have said that forecasting during a one-in-100-year global economic shock is difficult and as I said in the Budget speech more of an art than a science which is why Treasury of course produced three alternative scenarios alongside its central Budget forecast.Hon Paul Goldsmith: On what basis does he have confidence in the Treasury's forecast that the economy will generate 180000 new jobs in the next two years?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I believe the member is quoting from the analysis by Infometrics economist Brad Olsen. He was actually comparing job creation and the unemployment rate together which as the member knows is a tricky area to go into. What we do know is that the investments that the Government is making in job creation and in helping people stay in their jobs undoubtedly will add to job growth.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Does he agree with Professor Norman Gemmell's observation that Treasury estimates that $62.1 billion will save 140000 jobs—that's nearly $450000 per job saved?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: It's really a repeat of the previous answer: forecasting in this environment is very difficult. Norman Gemmell has been a fairly regular critic of the work of this Government so it doesn't entirely surprise me he's made those comments.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Does he agree with Professor Gemmell's conclusion that $450000 per job saved sounds like an expensive trade-off?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I don't actually agree with the premise of Mr Gemmell's comments let alone his conclusions.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Does Treasury's forecast that tax revenue will return to pre-COVID levels by 2022 rely on the imposition of new taxes?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: No it doesn't. The member will be aware that Treasury's forecasts rely upon their idea of where the economy will be at at any given moment. I would note for the member that actually Treasury's forecasts are more pessimistic in a number of ways than the average of the retail banks' forecasts; so that just highlights that at the moment we are in the middle of a one-in-100-year shock but the Government's plans to grow jobs and keep people in jobs will stand us in good stead for growth in the future.Rt Hon Winston Peters: Could I follow up on the Hon Pāora Goldsmith's question and ask whether or not it's a fact—Hon Members: Oh come on.Rt Hon Winston Peters: —well that's his interpretation—that Treasury actually if you know anything about Treasury make their forecasts on existing tax law not some futuristic dreamt-up tax law?SPEAKER: And leaving out the out of order bit.Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Pāora Kōuramete's comments I don't agree with. The Treasury does indeed—as the member suggests—make their forecasts based on existing policies.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Will he rule out tax increases in the next term of Government if he is fortunate enough to be the Minister of Finance?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I can say that this Government's record on taxation stands. We have made sure that over the last two months we have used the tax system to put in place measures that support the cash flow for small businesses in New Zealand and to support all New Zealand taxpayers. On that score the Government stands by its tax policy. Future Governments will make tax policy as they see fit.Hon Paul Goldsmith: So can he confirm that if re-elected he will send New Zealanders the invoice for the spending that is happening now?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: No. What I can confirm is that the member's confidence in the re-election of this Government is well-placed."