10. Climate Change Policy—ConsultationTODD MULLER (National—Bay of Plenty) to the Minister for Climate ChangeClimate Change Policy—Consultation10. TODD MULLER (National—Bay of Plenty) to the Minister for Climate Change: What aspects of a Zero Carbon Bill are up for discussion in the consultation planned for later this year?Hon James Shaw: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. The piece of legislation that the member is asking about is a fairly significant piece of economic legislation with long-term implications and due to the truncated number of supplementary questions available to the Opposition in this question time I seek your permission to give a longer answer to the primary question than I otherwise would've.SPEAKER: The member can try and I may stop him.Hon JAMES SHAW (Minister for Climate Change): So I intend to consult on a range of matters in transitioning to a low-carbon and resilient economy including the full range of options for the 2050 emissions reduction target the roles and functions of the independent climate change commission and what role the commission should have in supporting New Zealand to adapt to the impacts of climate change. The consultation material will be supported by a number of studies looking into how New Zealand can make the transition to a low-emissions economy. These include first the Productivity Commission's draft report into the low-emissions economy; second the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment's report called Stepping stones to Paris and beyond; third an expert report underpinning the Ministry for the Environment's impact analysis on a range of potential 2050 targets such as the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research and Infometrics modelling the impact of targets across the economy sectors and society—the approach builds on and extends the 2015 modelling work—Sense Partners Ltd assessing the potential for targets to drive New Zealand's rate of innovation and impact on New Zealand's international competitiveness; expert reports underpinning the Productivity Commission's analysis by Vivid Economics Motu and Concept Consulting Group on transition pathways to low emissions under uncertainty; and Sapere Consulting on moving to greater renewable electricity.Todd Muller: Could you repeat that?SPEAKER: I can't Mr Muller.Todd Muller: Will the Government consult on the merits of excluding short-lived gases from within his zero carbon target?Hon JAMES SHAW: At this stage all options are on the table for a new domestic emissions reduction target. One of the key considerations will be our responsibilities under the Paris Agreement to have a sequence of all-sectors all-gases international targets including our current and subsequent nationally determined contributions and for the 2050 target to be successful we will need it to be compatible with our international targets as well as being sustainable simple to understand and internationally credible.Todd Muller: Will the Government provide estimates of the comparative economic costs between a zero emission target for carbon dioxide only and a target that includes other greenhouse gases as well before public consultation takes place?Hon JAMES SHAW: The series of reports that I referred to that provide the economic modelling underpinning the consultation will look at that range of options.Todd Muller: Will the Government provide estimates of the regional and sectorial impact of those various scenarios for a zero emission target such as changes in activity levels for steel manufacturing or pastoral agricultural production before public consultation takes place?Hon JAMES SHAW: Yes. We will be looking at the marginal abatement cost curves across sectors and regions. This is a much more comprehensive piece of modelling work than the piece of work that was done in 2015 in preparation for the Paris Agreement but I do just want to caution that it is very difficult to make assessments 30 years out. This is the most sophisticated piece of economic modelling that this country has yet undertaken over an extremely long time frame and so it does have its limits. It is I guess based on the best information we've got the best set of scenarios that we can produce for the next 30 years.Todd Muller: Will the divergent opinions and advice between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade the Ministry for the Environment and the Ministry for Primary Industries regarding the various economic costs of the various net zero scenarios be shared with New Zealand as part of that consultation?Hon JAMES SHAW: I actually can't answer that question. I expect agencies to provide robust advice based on their perspective and that is part of the contestable nature of advice that we get from different agencies. I can't commit at this stage before we've gotten too far down the design of the specific range of consultation options on exactly what information will be included in that. The main reports that we're talking about like I said are the series of economic modelling reports the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment's report the Productivity Commission's report and work under way across different agencies on how different sectors can reduce emissions. We will also be doing reviews of international literature on the effects of climate policy on the economy and society at large and within sectors and regions. But I can't commit today to precisely what the consultation will include.