Little Andrew: Oral Questions — Questions to MinistersText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeLittle Andrew: Oral Questions — Questions to Ministers[Sitting date: 04 November 2015. Volume:709;Page:7688. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]2.ANDREW LITTLE (Leader of the Opposition) to the Prime Minister: Why did he say in July last year that “We think unemployment will be down to 4.5 percent in the very foreseeable future”?Hon BILL ENGLISH (Deputy Prime Minister) on behalf of thePrime Minister: Because in July 2014 when the Budget forecasts were published that is what Treasury forecast and it was somewhat similar in the pre-election update. I would have to say that Treasury was at about the middle of the consensus for the unemployment rate. It turned out they were all wrong—unemployment is higher.Andrew Little: What responsibility if any does he take for unemployment rising to 6 percent?Hon BILL ENGLISH: Of course if unemployment was a direct choice of the Prime Minister of New Zealand there would be none of it. You would just decide to have none. But of course it is not. It is a product of the world economy and its low growth rates and of particular circumstances in New Zealand where the rebuild in Christchurch has flattened out and there has been a drop in national income of billions of dollars from the decrease in dairy prices which was always going to affect the number of jobs in New Zealand and now it is happening. [Interruption]Mr SPEAKER: Order! Can I just request a little less interjection from my immediate left. I do not want anybody having to leave the House but the level of noise yesterday from that particular quarter was unacceptably loud. I will not tolerate it to the same extent today.Andrew Little: What responsibility if any does he take for the loss of 11000 jobs in the last quarter alone?Hon BILL ENGLISH: As I just responded of course if it was a direct choice of the Prime Minister he of course would just choose thousands of new jobs. The Labour Party seems to have forgotten that you might be able to choose to do that in the old Russian economy but in the modern open economy you do not have those choices. What we are doing is better and that is backing our businesses to invest more and employ more people. Fortunately they are proving to be pretty resilient to the poor global conditions and the right adjustments are happening: a lower exchange rate lower interest rates. These things will lead to a pick-up in the economy and the creation of more jobs.Andrew Little: How high does he think unemployment will rise given bank economists are warning it could get to 7 percent—back to the bad old days of the global financial crisis?Hon BILL ENGLISH: There is a range of bank economists’ forecasts. Two or 3 months ago they were forecasting the end of the world. That has not quite happened. Now some of them are forecasting 7 percent unemployment. Let us see. The fact is that new jobs arise from businesses that are confident enough to invest another dollar and employ another person. That is how jobs happen. So the Government is working through dozens of policy initiatives to encourage that and protecting some of them from criticism like the 90-day trial period which enables people to get a foot in the door and prove themselves. Of course the Labour Party is against that.Andrew Little: How are Kiwis meant to get ahead and live the Kiwi dream when they are facing job losses rising unemployment and stagnant wages under National? [Interruption]Mr SPEAKER: Order! I say to the Hon Steven Joyce that he might get a chance later to answer a question but it is not your question at the moment.Hon BILL ENGLISH: As the Minister has pointed out wages have been rising surprisingly consistently ahead of inflation. Fortunately most New Zealanders are not as miserable and angry as the Labour Party.Andrew Little: When does he expect to finally get unemployment back down to 4.2 percent the level he inherited?Hon BILL ENGLISH: We have some confidence that in an economy that can and is likely to grow at 2 to 3 percent despite some real challenges and some real headwinds from the world economy we will see unemployment peak and start to drop. It would be much better of course if it was 4.5 percent as was forecast in the Budget in 2014. But this is the real world that businesses and households are dealing with every day and that is why confidence in the Government’s policies and the future of New Zealand is so important. We have that confidence. Unfortunately our opponents do not.Andrew Little: As he enters his eighth year in Government when is he going to stop blaming an old Government and take responsibility for his own failure to bring unemployment down and his failure to create secure well-paid jobs for Kiwis?Hon BILL ENGLISH: I did not blame an old Government for the current unemployment. If the member asks “When is the Government going to create secure well-paying jobs?” well over the last 4 years there have been about 180000 new secure well-paying jobs on top of the hundreds of thousands of jobs that currently exist. The New Zealand workforce is enjoying on average real increases in incomes year on year and they deserve some credit for that. In the world environment that we have had to deal with our businesses and households have proven to be remarkably resilient. That is why we have net inflows from Australia for the first time in a generation even though our growth rates are pretty similar. People see better job prospects here than in Australia. That is a good problem to have not a bad one.