4. Question No. 4—FinanceNICOLA WILLIS (Deputy Leader—National) to the Minister of FinanceQuestion No. 4—Finance4. NICOLA WILLIS (Deputy Leader—National) to the Minister of Finance: Does he agree with Westpac's view of the outlook for the New Zealand economy as being elevated persistent inflation an over-heated economy set for a prolonged period of low and below trend growth a high fiscal deficit in cyclically adjusted terms and an elevated current account deficit" and what responsibility if any does he take for this economic outlook?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON (Minister of Finance): In answer to the first four parts of the question inflation is coming down and is forecast to be back within the target range in the September 2024 quarter—a fact I know the member is aware of after last week. We've reached a turning point in the cycle and as forecast by Westpac the economy is set to grow over the next few years against a tough global backdrop. The average operating balance before gains and losses deficit as a percentage of GDP under this Government has been lower per year than under National during the financial crisis and the current account deficit is forecast by Westpac to keep closing. While our net international liability position is at 48.4 percent it is lower than the 53.4 percent we inherited in 2017 and well down on the 84.3 percent of GDP it hit in 2009. In answer to the fifth part of the question this is undoubtedly a challenging time for Kiwi households and businesses. I take responsibility for supporting them as we have done and will do into the future—including nearly record-low unemployment wages growing faster than inflation lower Government debt than the countries we compare ourselves against and New Zealand being one of the few countries in the world which received a credit rating upgrade during the one-in-100-year COVID economic shock.Nicola Willis: Who does he agree with: the Prime Minister who this morning said "We are turning a corner [economically]"—or the BNZ who said "The wheels are starting to well and truly fall off the New Zealand economy"?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I obviously agree with the Prime Minister who in turn is agreeing with ASB who had the headline on their story: "A turning point for the economy is coming."Nicola Willis: Who was correct: the Prime Minister who said this morning "[We're seeing] inflation coming down" or the BNZ who said last week "Inflation refuses to die. In fact inflation has recently accelerated [driven by] local body rates an excise tax hike insurance costs and rapidly rising petrol prices."?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I of course agree with the Prime Minister who in turn interestingly enough agrees with Westpac—who were used in the member's primary question but dropped for the supplementary question—because they also noted that inflation is coming down. Nicola Willis: Who was correct: the Prime Minister who said "[We're seeing] GDP growth returning" or the ANZ who said "the economy is slowing the export outlook is challenged and unemployment is set to rise"?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Look I thank the member for serving up another lob to me. I agree with the Prime Minister and funnily enough Westpac—the primary question subject for the member—who also see economic growth in our future.Nicola Willis: Is it really the Minister of Finance's position that everything is looking so rosy with the economy and if that is the case can we expect the pre-election fiscal update to reflect that rosiness?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I have stood in this House day after day indicating that we understand on this side of the House that times are tough for many New Zealand businesses and many New Zealand households. The global economy is slowing and it is a very challenging period. What that requires in response is a balanced approach that looks after New Zealanders eases the cost of living pressure puts public services back on the footing that it needs to be on but does not engage in unfunded tax cuts that will ultimately be more inflationary and put more pressure on those Kiwi households. Nicola Willis: Does the Minister of Finance recall in May last year describing inflation as a "short term challenge" and given the cost of living crisis has now entered its 27th month why should New Zealanders trust either his or the Prime Minister's promises that everything will be better?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: At all times we have stood up in this House and talked about the forecasts that we have seen from the likes of the Treasury the likes of the Reserve Bank and indeed the retail banks that the member has been quoting today. Inflation is coming down in the eyes of all of those people and while it is a very tough time for many New Zealand households we know that what households need is a Government that supports them to ease the cost of living pressure while balancing that against providing public services not a party that has unfunded tax cuts to the tune of billions of dollars and no way of making it add up."