Woodhouse Michael; Robertson GrantHon MICHAEL WOODHOUSE (National): Thank you Madam Chair. I do hope that time permits to ask the Minister some questions around the quality of the spending in Budget 2020 but I want to focus actually on the Crown revenue projections. The numbers I'm quoting are from page 38 of the summary document which the Minister will be familiar with. Now what's interesting is that the actual Crown revenue for 2019 was $93.5 billion. Even though the effects of COVID only hit in the last three months of the fiscal year the forecast for the year just ended is $89.5 billion and that's a $4 billion drop where I think the projections for revenue initially were higher than that. So that's a really big thump in the Crown revenue projections.Despite that and for all that we've gone through over the last five months the forecasts for this financial year that we've just started is $87 billion—a drop in Crown revenue of just $2.5 billion. Now I find that heroic in the extreme particularly when you then see a forecast for the following year for it to bounce back by $7.5 billion to $94.6 billion and up to $104 billion in the year after.Now the question is this: were those projections made for Budget 2020 prior to the full effects of COVID-19 on Crown revenue being understood; has the Minister seen a revised projection of Crown revenue and if so what has that done; and thirdly because in my estimation this could have a significant effect on the operating balance before gains and losses and therefore the need for the Government to take action what would that action be? Would it be to borrow more or would it be to spend less and how will the Government respond if those several—possibly—tens of billions of dollars of projected revenue do not eventuate?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON (Minister of Finance): Again keeping the answers as short as I can the very short answer to the member Michael Woodhouse's question is yes. Those projections were largely done before the full effects were understood. Our system of Government is an excellent transparent and open one which means the pre-election fiscal update (PREFU) will provide him with the answer to his last question. My statement about what would occur in terms of the middle of that—and yes of course it will have an impact on the operating balance before gains and losses. My statement about what would occur in the middle of that is that broadly speaking both the advice from Treasury and also what we're hearing from outside economists is that the New Zealand economy has done better coming out of lockdown than was expected but the global economy and projections for the global economy are significantly worse. The net effect of that will bear out in the PREFU but I think we can all see that as we've learnt more about this particular virus and its impact on the global economy it is the downside scenarios we're seeing more of rather than the upside. Hon MICHAEL WOODHOUSE (National): I thank the Minister. The last question wasn't exactly answered although I did think it was implied in his answer and that is: would the Crown borrow more to close the gap or would it look at quality of the spending? In a previous answer to Mr Goldsmith Mr Robertson has said that the projections are for interest rates to stay low but that's not actually how borrowing is done. It's done on the actual interest rates that the Crown pays over a set period of time which—I'd be interested to know the duration of the locked-in interest rates that are being obtained. But I would be keen to get the Minister's sense of whether there is an openness to actually look at the quality of spending and make reductions in what are effectively some big big plans for spending or whether we're just going to borrow more. Hon GRANT ROBERTSON (Minister of Finance): I thank the member Michael Woodhouse. Sorry I apologise for not having answered that third point and this unfortunately will be the last contribution due to the timings that we have—Hon Paul Goldsmith: Half an hour—you had half an hour. Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: No no. Apparently I'm told I don't so there you go. Rt Hon David Carter: No we can have a bit more of you if you want it—you're welcome to do it. Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: A bit more of me Mr Carter? That's the first time he's ever said that. The problem is it will reduce the other calls. But anyway—Rt Hon David Carter: That doesn't matter. Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Fair enough fair enough. Look I'm so popular Madam Chair I'm happy to stay. In answer to the member's question it will always be a mix of all of those things. It's not just a choice to look at value for money; it's an obligation and it's an obligation on any Minister of Finance to assess every single bid that comes through and then go on assessing it in terms of its implementation. It would certainly be true that as we were going through the COVID Response and Recovery Fund we've had to move swiftly. I think we all agree that a no-regrets approach was the way to do that but that means there is an even greater obligation to assess whether or not that spending remains value for money. What I would say is that we remain in a strong position to borrow. There are a variety—and the member will be very well aware of this—of lengths of times of Government bonds as to how they're issued and how they work in in terms of what the interest rates are on them. So that will continue. We are very mindful of what we are borrowing and very careful about how it is being spent. Hon Paul Goldsmith: Supplementary—well no not supplementary—