Peters Winston: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to Ministers 
Peters Winston: Questions for Oral Answer — Questions to Ministers 
[Volume:617;Page:13058] 
6.  
Rt Hon WINSTON PETERS (Leader—NZ First) 
 to the  
Minister of Immigration 
: Exactly how did he or his officials come up with the estimated 20000 overstayer figure yesterday and what is the margin of error for this estimate? 
Hon PAUL SWAIN (Minister of Immigration) 
: 
 The New Zealand Immigration Service determines how many people there are on its computer system with expired permits who are recorded as still in New Zealand. From this data the New Zealand Immigration Service samples 100 records from each of at least 12 specified countries those with either high numbers or high ratios of overstaying. It also does a random sample of 400 records from all of the other countries combined. The margin of error for the overstayer estimate is plus or minus 3.5 percent. 
Rt Hon Winston Peters 
: Can I ask the Minister whether he will be apologising for misleading the House and for giving a seriously flawed overstayer figure of 20000 when he finally admitted to the House yesterday that the process for identifying overstayers is unsatisfactory and why have members in this Parliament had to listen to a litany of departmental lies from his officials as to the true figure over the last 5 years and when will he give members an accurate figure? 
Hon PAUL SWAIN 
: I certainly will not be apologising. I said it was an estimate. It was an approximation of 20000 plus or minus 3.5 percent. I could have given the member a whole seminar in maths and statistics. 
Rt Hon Winston Peters 
: You’ve got no idea. 
Hon PAUL SWAIN 
: I have. It is around 20000. It was around 20000 when that member was the Treasurer and he did absolutely nothing about it. What we have done is put more money into border control and we are trying to do something about information sharing in a Corrections Bill that that member’s party is voting against. 
Dianne Yates 
: What is the Government doing to improve the quality of work being done on estimating the number of overstayers? 
Hon PAUL SWAIN 
: The problem with establishing the exact number of overstayers has been around longer than this Government and was around when the leader of New Zealand First was the Treasurer. My predecessor Lianne Dalziel initiated a systematic analysis of overstayers data in 2000. As a result of that initiative the New Zealand Immigration Service has dedicated resources to work on this and there has been a 50 percent increase in border control and management since 1999-2000. The New Zealand Immigration Service is constantly working to improve the integrity of data both in-house and with other agencies. 
Dr Wayne Mapp 
: In light of the Minister’s answer just given—that all the information is on computers—why can he not give members a dead-accurate figure by simply comparing departure cards arrival cards and visa information? 
Hon PAUL SWAIN 
: This has been a problem since Governments have let people into the country. The fact is that some people for example arrive on flight crews and then go some people die and some people end up not being overstayers because of the fact they have come in with parents. We do what we can. It is a difficult issue. We are going to get on top of it but it does require a determined effort and support from other parties that consider it an important issue as well. 
Rt Hon Winston Peters 
: Is it a fact that the recurring answer I have been given—that current overstayer figures show a significant improvement on the 1997-98 figures—is a complete nonsense given that computerised recording ceased in 1997 because back then when I was in Government it was determined that the system was not accurate enough; and what has he done since then? 
Hon PAUL SWAIN 
: Well quite a lot actually. The computer system was introduced in 1996-97 and during that time whilst it was settling in the information available was not particularly accurate. The information is now getting better. In fact the information we have on overstayers now is better than it was when that member was the Treasurer.