10. Question No. 10—HousingNICOLA WILLIS (National) to the Minister of HousingQuestion No. 10—Housing10. NICOLA WILLIS (National) to the Minister of Housing: What advice if any has she received on the current and forecast gap between housing supply and demand in New Zealand?Hon Dr MEGAN WOODS (Minister of Housing): I've received advice that the current gap between housing supply and demand in New Zealand is anywhere between 28000 and 200000 homes. This range is based on estimates by many commentators and economists and the precise figure is contested as there is not one set methodology for measuring the gap between supply and demand. The estimates that I have received advice on include Kiwibank who forecast an 80000 gap; Westpac who forecast a 50000 gap; ASB who forecast a gap of 60000 to 65000; Sense Partners who forecast a gap of 28000 to 45000; Infometrics who forecast a gap of 40000; ANZ 60000 to 120000; and Ashley Church who forecast 200000. Then there is other data that we monitor and I receive advice on such as CoreLogic who track market activity but do not engage in forecasting. There is BRANZ and Pacifecon New Zealand who provide building and construction forecasting and data on known intentions and these numbers go towards providing a six-year forecast of national building and construction work. And then of course there is Stats NZ who provide inter-census estimates of dwellings and populations and projections of future population growth and household formations but again these are not forecasts. While it's important that we have good problem definition and these forecasts help understand the scale of the crisis it's equally important that after a decade of inaction by the previous Government we get on and deal with the problem and that's exactly what this Government is doing.Nicola Willis: What advice has she received from her own Ministry of Housing and Urban Development which employs 315 people at a cost to the taxpayer of $62 million a year—SPEAKER: Order! I'm going to—that's one supplementary gone. The member will now ask one which is in order. She knows—she's been around here a long time. She knows that is out of order.Nicola Willis: What advice has the Minister received from her own Ministry of Housing and Urban Development about the size of the housing shortage in New Zealand and if they don't monitor that how does she know whether her policies are effective or not?Hon Dr MEGAN WOODS: I don't propose to read through the list of advice that is discussed—SPEAKER: No the member will resume her seat. The list she read was not advice; they were reports. The member's been asked about advice now.Hon Dr MEGAN WOODS: The advice that I have received from officials is that what we have is—depending on the methodology that is used in terms of forecasting you can come up with any number. So rather than just using a crude national figure the advice that I have received is actually we look more at place-based assessment. We have already undertaken these in Rotorua Gisborne Northland and Hastings so we can understand not only the housing shortfall in a given geographical location but we can also understand what the shortfall is in terms of rental properties what the shortfall is in terms of homeownership what the shortfall might be in terms of public housing. So what the information tells is us is actually what is required in a given place. I would point that member to the fact that the advice I've also received is that under the previous National Government there was no formalised forecasting but actually officials did start doing some modelling to try and convince that previous Government that we did indeed have a housing crisis.Nicola Willis: Why was the previous Minister of Housing the Hon Phil Twyford able to provide figures measuring the housing shortage in New Zealand but this Minister is not able to?Hon Dr MEGAN WOODS: There's a very simple answer for that. So the figure that appeared in the 2017 briefing to the then incoming Minister was an extrapolation of the 45000 dwelling shortfall that had been provided to the previous Government before the change of Government. That was done by officials because there was no formalised forecasting for the Government but as I said the bureaucracy decided they needed to try and convince the previous Government there was a housing crisis.Brooke van Velden: How many new houses will be built this year due to policies implemented by this Government?Hon Dr MEGAN WOODS: I don't have those figures directly on me across all typologies. What I can tell the member—I can tell her off the top of my head—is how many public houses that we will be building this year. I also note that the building consents that have gone in are at an all-time high since the 1970s so more houses than in decades. But if the member wants to put that question in writing I'm more than happy to give her a very precise number.Nicola Willis: Is the Minister aware of a report released in 2019 by Minister Phil Twyford saying the size of the housing shortage was 71194 houses and why hasn't the Minister updated that number?Hon Dr MEGAN WOODS: As I said that number was an extrapolation out of the number provided to the outgoing National Government of the 45000 shortfall in housing. But what I discussed with officials and the advice I have was that actually just having a crude national number doesn't provide us with the houses that we need to live in. We need to understand the nuance of this. We have to understand what is required in a particular location. [Interruption]SPEAKER: Order! I'm just going to remind the Hon Dr Nick Smith when he sits in the deputy leader's seat and makes that sort of noise it goes through both my microphones and reverberates around the House. It makes it quite hard for anyone to hear. Nicola Willis: How many new houses have been built through the Government's flagship KiwiBuild programme and how has that helped address New Zealand's housing shortage?Hon Dr MEGAN WOODS: Those numbers are of course publicly available to the member on the website. There have been 788 houses that have been built. There's 855 houses under construction. How this does benefit the supply issues is that we are actually getting affordable homes for those people into the system. I will put that record against the previous Government's 100 affordable homes under nine years in their special housing areas any day of the week.