Bayly AndrewANDREW BAYLY (National—Hunua): Thank you Mr Assistant Speaker. It's a pleasure to be talking on the Appropriation (2017/18 Supplementary Estimates) Bill and the Imprest Supply (First for 2018/19) Bill. Of course I think we've heard today that these two bills are basically about ensuring that the Government gets sufficient funding to fund the variations to appropriations in terms of the Estimates bill and the imprest bill relates to new financial spending in the first two months of the financial year until the Estimates bill is passed. Of course we've seen similar sorts of situations where this doesn't happen particularly in the US where basically Government closes down. So it is an important couple of bills that we're talking about tonight but principally it directs itself towards the money supply of the Government and what it intends to spend its money on.I've got to say when you look at the range of spending some of it is good and some of it's not so good. In terms of some of the key aspects we've got the Rt Hon Winston Peters' $700 million package for the curtains and carpets for the Stockholm embassy that apparently is the most important embassy to open in all of the world—$700 million for all those wonderful curtains and carpets. We've got the Hon Shane Jones' $1 billion Provincial Growth Fund for the Champion of the Regions". Well interestingly today I heard in question time he had elevated his status. He's no longer the "Champion of the Regions" no; "Champion of the Country"—of the country no less. Now I'm just wondering what the Prime Minister might be doing when she's sitting at home—and I hope she's well. But when she may have seen that at question time today she may have just asked herself whether she's still as relevant as she thought she might have been because I don't know where you go beyond becoming the "Champion of the Country".Todd Muller: The universe—that's next week.ANDREW BAYLY: Oh the universe OK.I think some of it provides a bit of clarity. I think one of the things that does provide clarity—we all heard about how the New Zealand First Party was going to look after superannuitants and of course we had their proposal of a $700-a-week winter payment to superannuitants—Hon Clare Curran: Energy payment—winter energy payment.ANDREW BAYLY: Winter energy payment if you want to have its full name—yes that's right. And of course in the Budget it was highlighted: 700 bucks for couples and how important that was. But what this shows—in fact they're not going to get $700; no they're not. They're only going to get roughly about $350 to $380. That's because there was some sort of technical issue that was somehow not worked through previously when they made that promise. There's only three months so in some ways it's pretty easy: rather than spread it over five months all you could have done is just gross up the value and pay even more over a certain monthly period and still pay what you promised to pay which is the $700. But no when you get down to the detail you find it's a lot lot less; in fact for an individual it's even worse.I think the thing that struck me most of all that was missing in this Budget and in these accounts is the issue that there is no money no appropriation for mental health. I think that is the greatest oversight in this Budget. For all the work that had been done involving people like the Chief Science Advisor Sir Peter Gluckman and a whole range of individuals who had worked on a range of packages to deal with mental health—we appropriated $100 million and that has been removed. That has been put into now a new working group that will not report back until probably at the earliest early next year. By the time the Minister goes through and looks at it there will be no new programmes implemented for at least two years in my view. I think that is probably the travesty of this appropriation and Budget.So I think one of the things we need to look at is the environment we are currently discussing this Budget around. I think the biggest thing is the decline in confidence. It's no different from a non-performing or poor-performing Cabinet Minister. Once they lose their confidence—once they have lost their confidence—then that becomes a killer and it's the same for business confidence. When people and individuals start to lose their confidence they choose not to invest. When they choose not to invest they stop spending. Unfortunately we're starting to see the signs of it. There is an irrefutable connection between the loss of confidence and growth or declining growth.So it's interesting looking at the Westpac survey recently. They've come out and said—this is their recent pronouncement—that the New Zealand economy will continue to underperform its peers for the next few years. Rather damning I would have to say particularly when that same bank only a few months ago when it was under National described New Zealand as a "rock star economy". Then on 19 June there was an article that highlighted the consensus of a whole range of economic forecasters including people like—not insignificant organisations I'd have to say—Treasury the Reserve Bank BNZ ASB Westpac the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research and ANZ all who are saying and the consensus is that they expect GDP will weaken across the New Zealand economy over the next two years. We had the Auckland Chamber of Commerce show that over half their business members—and of course business people employ people—expect the economy to deteriorate over the next six months.Then we've had the Hon David Parker describing the ANZ survey on business confidence as junk—junk. Well I'd say to you that one commentary that may be different from the others—you might accept it as not being valid but when you get a complete raft of professionals and economists all saying the same thing that I believe is something you need to turn to. Rather we heard the finance Minister I think on Tuesday talking up the Truckometer and all those sorts of really professional surveys as being evidence that he thinks the economy's still growing.So what's happening? That means it's rather slightly alarming at the moment and I hope it doesn't continue but we're seeing rents going up on average by $20 a week which of course hits lower-income people and also hits those people saving for a new house. We're seeing food go up as a result of the increase in minimum wages and fuel prices and there was a report on 19 June—I heard someone across the way saying—that healthy food prices for a family of four in Auckland Wellington and Christchurch have risen by up to $21 a week. Of course we've seen the fuel prices and of course we're going to spend more time tonight talking about the regional fuel tax which together with the new tax that this Government has imposed will mean that in Auckland every person whether you're rich or whether you're poor—and of course it will affect the poorer members of our community much much more by 25.3c a litre every time they fill up their tank which on average is $15 extra every time they fill up their tank. That's on the back of an increasing petrol price.A couple of things in this Budget really worried me. One of them is that we're talking about housing and building and construction. Now you'd think if we're going to try and build all those additional houses—100000 and again I hope the coalition agreement actually achieves an objective—you would expect that if you're going to double the number of houses being completed every day there would be a need for more people in training in building and construction. You would. If you want to double it you would even if you assumed some efficiency gains. Well guess what? In this Budget not one extra cent was devoted towards increasing training for building and construction or the trades—or the trades. Well it's a disgrace.If you want to try and achieve something you actually need to set about doing something and being clear about it and putting your money where your mouth is. I just believe that's again another travesty in this Budget."