Shaw James; Dean JacquiClimate Change Response Act 2022—Emissions BudgetsHon JAMES SHAW (Minister of Climate Change): I move That this House express its support for the following proposed domestic emissions budgets which set out the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions that will be permitted in each emissions budget period as a net amount of carbon dioxide equivalent and are to be notified under the Climate Change Response Act 2002: 290 megatonnes (million tonnes) carbon dioxide equivalent in the first emissions budget period 2022-25; 305 megatonnes carbon dioxide equivalent in the second emissions budget period 2026-30; and 240 megatonnes carbon dioxide equivalent in the third emissions budget period 2031-35.The challenge that the climate crisis presents also represents the greatest opportunity that we have had in at least a generation to build an economy that is much more productive much more sustainable and much more inclusive than the one that we have today. And that challenge is as urgent and as important as it has ever been. Over the last few months we've seen first-hand the impact that the climate crisis is already having on our communities. We've had multiple floods in Tai Rāwhiti and Gisborne. We've had severe storm damage again repeatedly in Westport and Buller. We've had droughts in Southland so acute that the Awarua-Waituna Wetlands caught fire in autumn. The climate crisis is no longer something that's happening somewhere else to someone else at some point in the future. It is happening here it is happening to us and it is happening now. Our lived experience has now caught up with what the science has been telling us for some time which is that our best chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees is our best chance to avoid the worst effects. And to that end last term this House passed unanimously the zero carbon Act amendment to the Climate Change Response Act 2022.To my knowledge Aotearoa was the first country in the world to enshrine a commitment to hold global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees in its primary legislation. This temperature goal drives long-term targets which are also enshrined in the legislation and those long-term targets are in turn broken down into a series of emissions budgets for stepping stones along the way. Each emissions budget establishes a total quantity of emissions that will be permitted in a five-year period and it's the first three of these emissions budgets that we are debating here today.Now in that sense today's debate represents a significant milestone in New Zealand's climate change policy. We have never before had a binding domestic framework for cutting the pollution that we put into the atmosphere that causes global warming. And we put this framework in place to give New Zealand a much needed sense of certainty and predictability to future climate change policy. One of the main reasons that it has taken us so long as a country to get started on the path of cutting our emissions is because climate change policy has been so politicised and so subject to the back and forth vagaries of the political cycle. But it is a generational challenge. It requires a level of consistency across Governments and across decades. And the critical thing about this framework is that the imperative is set and the direction of travel is clear. So to that end the independent Climate Change Commission recommended that we hold this special parliamentary debate on the first three emissions budgets. That would allow each party to put its views on the record and at the same time preserve each party's ability to disagree on the policy prescription by which we meet those targets collectively. After all the first three emissions budgets take us through to 2035 which will span the life of probably more than one Government. Cabinet has now set these first three emissions budgets and they are as follows. The first from 2022 to 2025 has been set at 290 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gases. That averages out at 72.4 megatonnes per year which is two megatonnes per year less than the five-year average leading up to this point and 3.1 megatonnes less than our projected emissions for 2022 through to 2025. The second emissions budget from 2026 to 2030 has been set in principle at 305 megatonnes which is an average of 61 megatonnes per year. That is 13.4 megatonnes or nearly 20 percent per annum below what we emitted from 2017 to 2021. The third emissions budget from 2031 to 2035 has been set again in principle at 240 megatonnes or 48 megatonnes per year on average which is 26.4 megatonnes per year—about 35 percent less than 2017 to 2021. The first emissions budget at 290 megatonnes is exactly what the commission recommended and two megatonnes less than the Government consulted on last year. Cabinet had proposed a slight variance to the commission's recommended emissions budgets based on updated forestry intentions numbers. Now there is considerable uncertainty around forestry projections and so having reviewed the evidence Cabinet chose to revert to the commission's recommended first emissions budget. However Cabinet has largely retained the modified second and third emissions budgets that were consulted on last year. The second and third emissions budgets have been set as I said in principle. The commission will review the latest evidence and update their advice in advance of the Government of the day finalising the next emissions budget in 2024 and then the one after that in 2029. That will take account of not just more recent and firmer forestry projections but also account for uptake of new technology and scientific advances. Of course the nature and the momentum of those changes will rely in large part on what we are able to achieve in our first emissions reduction plan which I will publicly release on Monday 16 May.I know that there are those who will be worried that these emissions budgets do not go far enough. I'm one of them. There are also those who worry that these emissions budgets will be unaffordable or unachievable. To them I would say this: we established the Climate Change Commission as a politically neutral expert-led body to provide rigorous evidence-based advice on what we should and can do. Our agencies have tested their numbers but the emissions budgets I have outlined today reflect the commission's advice. These budgets are grounded in what the science says is needed and in a ground up analysis of what our economy can do over the coming 15 years. So don't take my word for it; take the commission's word for it. Aotearoa New Zealand's first three emissions budgets are the final piece of the framework that we have established in Aotearoa for bold enduring climate action that reaches across Governments across Parliaments and across generations. There remains a tremendous amount of effort required to meet those budgets to meet our targets and ultimately to do our bit to lower emissions and to limit global warming. This Government is committed to meeting our emissions budgets and achieving our targets and as we do so we are committed to building a future that is more equitable that is more prosperous that is more innovative and all within planetary limits. These budgets set out the path to a net zero Aotearoa. Our first emissions reduction plan will set out the actions that we take to get there and that we will do so in a way that benefits everyone—that takes everyone with us and leaves no one behind. Nō reira tēnā koutou tēnā koutou tēnā tātou katoa.ASSISTANT SPEAKER (Hon Jacqui Dean): The question is that the motion be agreed to. The Hon Dr Megan Woods—five minutes.