2. Question No. 2—FinanceHon PAUL GOLDSMITH (National) to the Minister of FinanceQuestion No. 2—Finance2. Hon PAUL GOLDSMITH (National) to the Minister of Finance: Does he agree with the Treasury that we are likely to see overall New Zealand GDP growth fall below Budget forecasts" and what are the domestic factors if any behind this slower growth?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON (Minister of Finance): The partial quote in the member's question comes from Treasury's November monthly economic indicators and the full quote is: "On balance weaker-than-forecast investment and services exports are likely to see overall New Zealand GDP growth fall below Budget forecasts." I do not agree or disagree with this quote as it is just a forecast. If it were to happen it would not be surprising to anyone who understands that New Zealand is part of the global economy. In fact the paragraph above that statement from Treasury says "The main channel through which global developments appear to be affecting New Zealand is via their impact on uncertainty and business confidence. In addition slowing global growth is a likely factor behind softer services exports growth including tourism." In answer to the second part of the question the main factors I've heard from businesses that are affecting domestic activity have been skills shortages historic infrastructure under-investment and our long-term productivity challenge. The member needs to remember that the New Zealand economy continues to grow at faster rates than the countries we compare ourselves to and I would note the Treasury statement in the same document from which his question came: "the sense gathered was that businesses are doing okay".Hon Paul Goldsmith: Don't our historically high terms of trade present an opportunity of a lifetime when we should be growing strongly?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Once again the member is failing to see that when we look at all of the countries around the world they are growing far more slowly than they did in the past. New Zealand relatively speaking continues to grow quicker than those countries.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Is the slowing growth delivered under his Government one reason why he signalled that he will abandon his debt target for 2021-22?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: The member's getting well ahead of himself but he is referring to the announcement about extra infrastructure investment that will be coming in just a few days' time. The main reason for that is to correct the huge under-investment and infrastructure deficit that we inherited from the previous Government.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Does he intend to keep his Government's solemn promise made to New Zealanders to keep net debt below 20 percent of GDP in 2021-22?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: What I will commit to is our great record around keeping debt low: two Budgets with debt below 20 percent and I might say far below the 23 percent or nearly 23 percent that we inherited from the previous Government.Kieran McAnulty: Does he agree with National Party finance spokesperson Paul Goldsmith in regards to GDP that borrowing to invest in infrastructure is a good idea?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I have heard that quote from Mr Goldsmith. I do believe that there is a case in New Zealand at the moment with some of the lowest interest rates that we've ever seen with the economy in good shape and with an infrastructure deficit to feel that it is a good time. I am however not confident about the views of the people who sit beside Mr Goldsmith on that.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Did he not make his promise on debt levels precisely to reassure New Zealanders who were worried about the affordability of Labour's spending promises?SPEAKER: Order! That's not his responsibility as Minister of Finance.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Sorry it's just—I raise a point of order Mr Speaker—SPEAKER: In undertakings made as the member indicated before the election.Hon Paul Goldsmith: He made his promise on debt levels when he spoke in the 2018 Budget where he talked about those promises to New Zealanders—SPEAKER: OK I'll let it go if the member is referring to that as opposed to what he said before.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Did he not make his promise on debt levels precisely to reassure New Zealanders who were worried about the affordability of Labour's spending promises?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: The comments I made at the 2018 Budget when I was talking about this were borne out at the 2019 Budget when we met that target below 20 percent—far better than the previous National Government had ever achieved; they weren't heading anywhere near there. On this side of the House we're actually delivering when it comes to keeping New Zealand's debt under control while investing in the projects that need to happen. I'll stand by the record of this Government on debt far ahead of that previous Government."