3. Question No. 3—FinanceHon PAUL GOLDSMITH (National) to the Minister of FinanceQuestion No. 3—Finance3. Hon PAUL GOLDSMITH (National) to the Minister of Finance: What is the Treasury's most recent estimate of changes to the unemployment rate over the next six months; and based on that estimate what is the expected fiscal impact?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON (Minister of Finance): Treasury's most recent estimates of changes to the unemployment rate over the next six months were contained in the scenarios published on 14 April. Treasury will provide their official forecast in the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update next week. The current unemployment rate is 4.2 percent. In response to the second part of the member's question the fiscal impact will be determined by the Government's actions and investments to support businesses create jobs and support those who are looking for work. The next set of fiscal forecasts will also be published in the Budget next week.Hon Paul Goldsmith: What advice has he received on the impact in terms of jobs of every extra week we remain in level 3?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Again that material is contained in Treasury's scenarios and can be extrapolated out from the overall output loss that Treasury simulated in those exercises. Obviously—Hon Paul Goldsmith: Well extract it for me—that's what I'm asking.Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Ha! Obviously the full data and full estimates of Treasury that we would regard as forecasts and that we would regard as official will be contained in next week's Budget.Hon Paul Goldsmith: How does he weigh the certainty of more job losses each week we extend heavy lockdown restrictions against the possibility of job losses in the future if our health measures fail to control another outbreak and we have to yo-yo back into lockdown?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Again if you take a look at Treasury's scenarios which predicted a different amount of time spent at different levels it shows you the severity of the impact. I think it's very clear to New Zealanders who worked extremely hard to get through level 4 just how strict the lockdown measures are. We can now see in level 3 that output is returning and forecast to be around 75 percent. Clearly if we have to move back into levels 3 and 4 once we get to level 2 that will constrain economic activity significantly.Hon Paul Goldsmith: I raise a point of order Mr Speaker. I don't mean to be tough—he said a lot—but I don't think he at all addressed the issue of how he weighs the certainty of one thing against the possibility of another. Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Well I can give a philosophical essay if he wants.SPEAKER: Bit more if the member wants—I thought he did but I'll go with the member. I'm being flexible.Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: The point that I was making is one example of how to weigh it up is to look at the scenarios and see the different amount of time that the country would be forecast to spend there and what that would mean for output as I said in my earlier answer. If the point that the member is getting to is whether it is a difficult decision for the Government to be able to put in place the restrictions that we did of course it is. But we are very clear and we can go back as far as—if the member who I know has an interest in history would like to—the 1918 flu epidemic and look at the studies that have been done by American economists that show that the states in America who went hard and early and did it once and did it right came back economically from that far better than the states who for instance went out of lockdown too early and then had to go back.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Isn't it true that waiting for certainty and refusing to roll the dice as the Prime Minister has said about the future costs real jobs now?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: From the very first day when I stood up in this House and announced our $12 billion package on 17 March we acknowledged as every Government around the world has to acknowledge that there will be job losses as a result of a one-in-100-year health and economic shock. What New Zealand has managed to do together is ensure that we are getting the best possible result for our health status and for our economy. I remind the member: 500000 people have been added to unemployment queues in Australia.Hon Paul Goldsmith: What makes him confident that loading small businesses with more debt will save jobs?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: The reaction I've had from a number of small businesses and from those who advocate on their behalf was that they have been very pleased indeed to see a scheme that gets the balance right to making sure that viable businesses are in a position to be able to get the money that they need.Hon Paul Goldsmith: Does he share the Ministry of Social Development's (MSD's) expectation that 300000 New Zealanders will lose their job this year?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: That's not MSD's expectation. What MSD was doing was planning something that I think members opposite would ask Government agencies to do: planning in that case by using some data at I think under 300000—I think it was 288000—which was based on one of the more pessimistic scenarios. The good news is that the Government has already put in place more fiscal stimulus than was connected to that particular scenario.