3. Economy—Economic GrowthHon AMY ADAMS (National—Selwyn) to the Minister of FinanceEconomy—Economic Growth3. Hon AMY ADAMS (National—Selwyn) to the Minister of Finance: Has he received the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Statement released today that shows GDP growth forecasts in the coming year have fallen by 0.5 percent; if so what effect would lower GDP have on Government revenue?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON (Minister of Finance): I have received the Reserve Bank's August Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). It does not show what the member's question suggests as it appears that she has included figures from the June 2018 quarter—which is in the past not the coming year—and added quarterly forecasts in a linear manner rather than taking into the account the need to be cumulative.Hon Amy Adams: Has he seen yesterday's Reserve Bank survey of expectations which shows that GDP expectations for the next two years have also fallen by 0.5 percent; and if so is he concerned that the only time in the history of the survey that GDP expectations have fallen so fast were during the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the global financial crisis in 2008/9?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: There are a number of different forecasts and commentary to make. For example I have received advice today from the Treasury that the growth forecast in the August MPS for the coming year—that being the current third quarter of 2018 to the same quarter next year—shows expected GDP growth of 3.3 percent. There will always be a range of forecasts and expectations. Can I say in answer to the second part of the member's question that if she is seriously suggesting that a New Zealand economy growing at an average of 3 percent over the next few years is in any way akin to the global financial crisis she really needs to do more homework.Hon Amy Adams: Is he aware that the Reserve Bank today have noted that Government spending is underpinning our growth; and if so does he consider that economic growth based on Government spending is the sign of an economy that is either productive or sustainable?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Government spending in the form of the KiwiBuild investment and the Families Package is a very important and necessary part of managing the transition away from the previous Government's reliance on housing speculation and population growth to improve productivity. As we see the effect of research and development spending the provincial growth roll-out more skills in our workforce—as announced in part today by the Prime Minister—we will see that transition but it is going to take some time to make up for nine years of neglect.Hon Amy Adams: Has he seen comments today by former ANZ Chief Economist Cameron Bagrie that The economy is not tracking as expected. The Treasury is projecting 3 percent-plus growth. Something closer to half of that is on offer. We won't get that growth back. Each 1 percent change in growth is worth around $800m in revenue."; and if so is he still going to stand here and pretend that the economy is humming along nicely?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: There are a range of different forecasts about where growth will reach. Today Westpac believe that they think the Reserve Bank wasn't ambitious enough in terms of the forecasts; similarly ASB thought the same thing. Mr Bagrie's entitled to his opinion on this but we on this side of the House continue to believe—as indeed the Reserve Bank does—that we will average around 3 percent growth over the forecast period.Hon Amy Adams: So what does he say to former ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie who has also said today that "the Labour-led Government's fiscal hole is looking deeper by the day"?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: What I would say to Mr Bagrie—and indeed to the member asking the question is when her predecessor started digging the fiscal hole it didn't work out very well for him and she shouldn't follow suit.Hon Amy Adams: So in light of every bank and economic agency in the country revising down New Zealand's growth prospects since the Labour-led Government has taken office with that list now including the Treasury and the Reserve Bank why is he still in denial that the Government's economic policies are hurting the economy and reducing the living standards and future well-being of New Zealanders?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I reject the premise of that question. If the member reads today's Monetary Policy Statement she will see that over the forecast period the Reserve Bank is projecting 3 percent growth or thereabouts over the next few years. It is going to take some time to transition away from the economy that we were left by the National Party that was based on housing speculation and population growth but we are committed to building a modern economy for New Zealand."