Robertson Grant: Oral Questions — Questions to MinistersText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeRobertson Grant: Oral Questions — Questions to Ministers[Sitting date: 18 June 2015. Volume:706;Page:4559. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]2.GRANT ROBERTSON (Labour—Wellington Central) to the Minister of Finance: Does he stand by his statement last week that it is important not to “think ourselves into a negative mindset”; if so does he think the Reserve Bank Governor has a negative mindset?Hon BILL ENGLISH (Minister of Finance): I was just concerned about the member’s state of mind to ensure that he was not getting too depressed about being so negative all the time; but no I do not think the Governor of the Reserve Bank does have a negative mind-set. Last week he confirmed that the Reserve Bank expects the economy to grow by over 3 percent in each of the next 2 years supported by low interest rates high net migration and construction activity.Grant Robertson: In light of that answer then is the Reserve Bank Governor correct that there is “little sign that exports are about to recover.” or is that just a negative mind-set?Hon BILL ENGLISH: I am by nature an optimistic person and I am a bit more optimistic than the Governor of the Reserve Bank on that matter. You have to remember that our export sector has been geared up around an 80c-plus US$1. It has become lean mean and productive and now that the exchange rate is dropping relatively quickly I believe the prospects for export growth are pretty good.Grant Robertson: In light of that answer then is it correct that the ANZ commodity price index has declined by 18 percent in the last 12 months or are exporters just making up those numbers as a result of their negative mind-set?Hon BILL ENGLISH: Just to cheer the member up commodities are not the only thing New Zealand earns export income from. In fact I think the top earner is tourism and that is going very well. Then there is dairy and that is down—there is no doubt about that. Then there is international education which is growing pretty fast.Hon Michael Woodhouse: Wine.Hon BILL ENGLISH: Then there are areas like wine where exports have expanded dramatically in the last 10 years. Kiwifruit is in better shape than it has been for a long time.Hon Steven Joyce: ICT.Hon BILL ENGLISH: Information and communications technology is growing at 15 percent. In fact I saw the other day that the avocado industry is enjoying boom times.Grant Robertson: Was Cameron Bagrie correct when he said that the economy has slowed down markedly in recent months and today’s GDP figures are weak or has he just got a negative mind-set?Hon BILL ENGLISH: No. In my experience Mr Bagrie has a sharply analytical mind-set and certainly when you get a GDP number of 0.2 that tells you that less has been happening than the market expected. It is one quarter’s numbers and it is mainly because the drought reduced production but not prices as the member has been saying in his press releases. The New Zealand economy however in general is on track for 2.5 to 3 percent growth.Grant Robertson: Is the Reserve Bank Governor correct when he says that the terms of trade are “declining significantly” and that the Government is unlikely to return to surplus before 2017 or does he just have a negative mind-set?Hon BILL ENGLISH: Well the Reserve Bank Governor has every right to have his own opinion about it. We do not necessarily share those opinions. I just look at the Reserve Bank’s growth forecasts that I know disappoint the member but what they actually show is 3 percent growth over the next few years. Whether that can be achieved is pretty likely because New Zealand businesses and households are working hard they are resilient they are productive and we think they are doing a good job.Fletcher Tabuteau: Would the Minister sympathise with a negative mind-set from the Reserve Bank Governor given that in the Budget the Minister told the public that total Crown borrowing was approximately $60 billion but in reality the Reserve Bank Governor knows the truth of the situation—that it is in fact nearly twice that at $111334000000?Hon BILL ENGLISH: We just use the normal way the Public Finance Act indicates for calculating gross debt. If you look at debt right across the whole Government balance sheet you will come up with some different numbers. I am quite happy to discuss with the member how that is calculated so that we can all understand the difference between those two numbers.Fletcher Tabuteau: I seek leave to table in the House a breakdown from the Minister himself on the numbers I have just quoted—Mr SPEAKER: Order! No. Again I do not think that that is going to inform the answer. The question was a legitimate question. There was a discussion between two figures. The Minister has answered it. What the member is attempting to do now in tabling that is simply to use it to make a political point. I am not going to allow that.Grant Robertson: When Graeme Wheeler Cameron Bagrie and exporters all over New Zealand are telling him that his economy is being propped up only by retail spending in Canterbury and Auckland is it not time for him to stop blaming people for telling the truth and to admit that he does not have a plan for the New Zealand economy?Hon BILL ENGLISH: For the member to say that the economy is being propped up by just Auckland and Christchurch—I mean what is he suggesting is the alternative? That somehow we measure it without Auckland and Christchurch? That would be ridiculous. I think it shows that the member thinks that Wellington is the centre of the universe and that is the only thing that we should count.Fletcher Tabuteau: Can the Minister confirm that despite the sale of nearly half of the electricity to foreign interests determined to increase their profits the net debt of our State-owned enterprises has actually increased $11 billion since this Government came into power?Hon BILL ENGLISH: I would need to have a look at the detail or the figures but I can assure the member that State-owned enterprises certainly will not be borrowing unnecessarily; that is for sure. I can assure him also that the sale of half of each of the three generators has led to us getting more dividends as a 50 percent owner than we got as a 100 percent owner.