Falloon AndrewANDREW FALLOON (National—Rangitata): We've heard this afternoon that this is a Government failing to deliver on their promises to New Zealanders. We've seen it in education with their school donations policy now a shadow of its former self. We've seen it in housing with their longstanding policy of 100000 new houses over 10 years now lying in tatters. And we've seen it in police numbers where 1800 additional police promised by Stuart Nash is now being described by none other than the Police Association as a broken promise. This is what we ask in their year of delivery: what are they actually delivering? Well in rural New Zealand the evidence is clear: concern fear and mistrust. Recently more than 500 people packed into the event centre in Ashburton to put a voice to that concern. They spoke of their fear of the effects of the Government's freshwater policies and the impacts in places like mid- and South Canterbury that I serve here in this Parliament. The proposals were released by the Government at the worst possible time of year in the midst of lambing and calving with a totally unrealistic six-week consultation period. It was increased begrudgingly to eight weeks but it was nowhere near enough when you consider that the Government refused to release any economic modelling of the changes. The dissolved inorganic nitrogen limit of one milligram per litre has been described as unattainable in some catchments in Canterbury. We know that simply trying to achieve that target will result in wholesale land-use change in Canterbury towards forestry and dryland sheep and beef and no irrigation. And yet David Parker has refused to release any economic or social impact analysis of those changes: what the effect would be on rural communities what the effect would be on rural schools on regional economies and on the people that live within them. Instead there's been a document released asking for submissions but no desire for an informed debate. All we have is a footnote buried at the bottom of page 84 referring to an Environment Canterbury report looking at the Selwyn Te Waihora zone. It's a report from June 2017 which looks at the effects of a dissolved inorganic nitrogen limit of one or close to one. I'll refer to that report now.It projects a very substantial change in land use in the catchment with virtually no intensive land uses and the catchment dominated by dryland sheep and beef grazing and by forestry or other extensive land uses." It goes on to say "Such large scale effective retirement of intensive land has not been experienced in Canterbury on any scale and the implications would be far reaching. There would be significant changes to the social structure of the catchment with the forestry or extensive grazing resulting in fewer farms and reduction in employment losses of economic value in the land significant loss in equity and depending on the time scale bankruptcy for those with debt that could not be managed through the transition."Finally and what can only be news to Mr Shane Jones it says that "even forestry may not be possible because the reduction in aquifer recharge may result in higher concentrations of nutrients in lowland streams and lower stream flows which breaches other desired outcomes in the catchment."; in other words no billion trees.The reason I quote this report at length is most alarming. Two weeks ago on the TVNZ Sunday programme mid-Canterbury Federated Farmers' president David Clark challenged the Minister on the contents of this report. David Parker admitted he hadn't even bothered to read it. Is it any wonder that farmer confidence is so low in this Minister and is so low in this Government? This is a Government that is failing farmers and failing to deliver on their promises to New Zealanders."