3. Economy—Business ConfidenceHon STEVEN JOYCE (National) to the Minister of FinanceEconomy—Business Confidence3. Hon STEVEN JOYCE (National) to the Minister of Finance: Does he stand by his statement yesterday that the ANZ Business Outlook Survey showed that a net 38 percent of businesses have a negative view about the year ahead"; and considering the net 39 percent negative view recorded in November what will he do to improve business confidence?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON (Minister of Finance): Yes I stand by that statement and we will be working with businesses as we roll out the Government's programme which is projected to lift growth to an average of 3 percent while lowering unemployment to 4 percent and lifting wages by 3 percent over the next four years.Hon Steven Joyce: Rather than what he's going to say what will he actually do to improve business confidence?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Business confidence about its own activity is extremely positive at the moment—Hon Steven Joyce: No it's not.Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: It is actually Mr Joyce if you read the surveys. In fact business confidence is indeed a measure that is undertaken in a number of different ways. One of those is the overall economic indicators but in terms of businesses' own activity they're confident. Consumer confidence is up. Employee confidence is up. The member should just cheer up.Hon Steven Joyce: Further to that answer does he accept that firms' own activity confidence has actually halved in the last few months and can he also advise whether he stands by his statement yesterday where he said that that had improved and could he identify the survey he was referring to?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I can confirm that business confidence in its own activity has increased in recent surveys. It has gone down over a period of time beginning as I said yesterday a trend that started in December 2016 when that member became the Minister of Finance.Willow-Jean Prime: What is the correlation between the ANZ Business Outlook survey's headline business confidence measure and GDP growth?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Since 2002 the correlation between the ANZ headline business confidence survey and GDP growth has been 0.2 according to former Reserve Bank economist Rodney Dickens—that is there is only a 20 percent chance that the survey's readings actually relate to future economic activity. There is however a far greater correlation in business confidence surveys between businesses' own activity and GDP growth which is net positive in all recent surveys.Hon Steven Joyce: Further to that last answer what does he think has changed within the New Zealand economy over the last five months that has led businesses to report that their own activity outlook is now less than half what it was in August of last year?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: As I said in my earlier answer that is a trend that began in December 2016. What we're seeing now is that businesses have a positive sentiment about their own activity. They can see—as Standard & Poor's have— that the activity that this Government is going to undertake is going to be positive. I can understand why the member is feeling a little bit dark and negative today but he should cheer up and stop talking the economy down.Hon Steven Joyce: Does the member now have with him the current level of small business confidence—as in the ANZ Business Micro Scope survey—and how long has it been since the level of small business confidence has been this low?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: I'm sorry to report to the member that I don't have that material but if he puts it down as a question—a primary question—we might be able to get to the bottom of that.Hon Steven Joyce: Does he understand how small businesses might be concerned at his interest in them when for two days in a row now he has come to the House on a question on business confidence and has shown absolutely no interest in the level of confidence or otherwise of New Zealand small businesses?SPEAKER: Order! I am going to invite the member to rephrase it without the assertion in the middle.Hon Steven Joyce: Does he understand how small businesses may be concerned at a lack of interest from the Government in their situation when the finance Minister has now come to the House two days in a row and failed to be able to answer questions around small business confidence?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: We're working extremely closely with the small business sector. That was evident in the decisions that were made around the 90-day trials. The Minister for Small Business has been at a large small business conference today where he's been talking about the plans for the Government. What it is an indication of is that this side of the House is committed to growing the economy sustainably seeing wages grow and making sure that there's a fair share in prosperity. I really do encourage the member to cast off the negativity that's all around him cheer up and support me in talking up the New Zealand economy. Hon Steven Joyce: The member should talk to Mr Peters. What step—SPEAKER: Order! I'm very tempted to take the question off the member. I won't this time because again it's early in the year and it's a new thing for the member. All right?Hon Steven Joyce: Thank you Mr Speaker. I appreciate that. What steps will the Minister actually take—actual concrete steps—to reassure small and medium sized businesses and improve their confidence given that this week the Government he is a Minister of has introduced an employment relations bill that advantages union officials and undercuts business confidence to grow and invest in our jobs?Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Small businesses have reacted very positively to the Government's decision around the 90-day trials. We remain committed to making sure that there's fairness in the workplace and actually making sure that working people in New Zealand get a fair share in prosperity. That Government had nine years to do it; it completely failed. We're getting on with the job."