Groser Tim: General DebateText is incorporated into the Bound VolumeGroser Tim: General Debate[Sitting date: 28 May 2014. Volume:699;Page:18404. Text is incorporated into the Bound Volume.]Hon TIM GROSER (Minister of Trade): I am speaking for the first time on the Budget in this general debate so I want to congratulate the Minister of Finance not just because he is a good bloke which he undoubtedly is but also on the sheer consistency of his leadership of our economy over successive Budgets. Now we can begin to see actual results and if we stick to the course—if we stick to the course—the prospect offurther steady gains for our people. We know what the main results are. We have seen a $3000 increase in the average wage with the prospect of slightly over $7500 in the next 4 years if we stick to the course. We have seen 84000 jobs created in the last year with the prospect of over 170000 in the next 4 years if we stick to the course. We have seen in the figures that came out 2 days ago a balance of payments surplus of $1.3 billion as export growth to the year to April 2014 increasing by 9.1 percent and Crown debt projected to get down to 20 percent if we stick to this course.With the words “stick to the course” I am thinking also of that phrase that we have debated a lot in the last few months about the rock star economy. I just want to reflect on why I think that although with human nature being such as it is it was nice to hear it a lot of us on the Treasury benches are not entirely comfortable with it precisely because of the obvious retort from its critics that it could be a one-hit wonder. If I take a one-hit wonder “How Bizarre” you have to ask yourself whether it would be bizarre if we get another vote from the New Zealand people in September that means that we do not stick to this course. It would not be bizarre at all because this is hard-wired into the position of our Opposition. I know there has been a tendency to take this way back into ancient debates. I am now going to go really extreme. I know that you will stop me before I kill again of course Mr Speaker.I want to go right back to 1973 before I get to the year 2000 because we had again exactly the same pattern. In 1973 I was a junior investigating officer in Treasury and we had had a period of long stability and then the election of a Labour Government. I went toHansard from 1973 and looked through the debate on the Appropriation Bill to the statement of the then Labour Minister of Finance. He said: “New Zealand’s balance of payments position is one of strength unparalleled in our previous experience.” Warming to the theme he then said: “Economic activity and business confidence have recovered strongly.” I do not think he added: “thanks to years of stable National Government rule.” And then he introduced a series of policies that are quite intriguing to look at now: a property speculators tax; further extension of price controls; he repealed the Remuneration Authority to give more strength to the “FOL” the Federation of Labour; selective depreciation; export subsidies; and interest-free suspensory loans—the usual formula.Then we have the 1974 Budget which I call the “Oops I Got That Wrong Budget” when the Labour Minister of Finance had to admit: “The sudden massive increase in oil prices has led to a highly unstable international trade and monetary situation.” That Government lasted one more Budget. So we have seen this before where you get consolidated progress followed by the assumption that these are good times that are going to roll for ever and then you set in place policies that are sometimes augmented by adverse economic external circumstances which of course none of us can foresee but which in the absence of proper conservative fiscal management can lead to a situation being undone in very short order. You know and New Zealand knows that this is also describing exactly what happened in 2000 when after a long period of difficult adjustment we started to average growth in the late 1990s in the last 3 years of 4 percent the terms of trade were looking very good unemployment was starting to come down everything was looking rosy and we know what happened when Labour took over that.I just add the following final thought. What this would be like with the addition of the Green Party is really quite a scary prospect. So I hope that New Zealanders focus on not just the achievements of this Budget but on the prospect that if we stay the course we will get steady prospective gains and there is every reason to believe that—provided we stay the course—and on the dangers of departing from that course against the background of well-known history.