Central African Republic

Unity - Dignity - Work

INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION (INDC)

September 2015

Summary

INTRODUCTION

The Central African Republic is a landlocked African country with an area of around 623,000 km². The terrain consists of a vast peneplain dominated by two mountain ranges at its eastern and western ends joined by a central spine that separates the two principal drainages, the Chari-Longue basin in the north and the Congo basin in the south.

The climate is hot and humid equatorial, characterised by two seasons: a dry season and a rainy season. The rainfall varies between 800 mm in the north and 1600 mm in the south and the average annual temperature varies between 15 °C in the south and 38 °C in the north. The future scenario indicates an increase in temperature on the order of 1.4 to 2.2°C, assuming low greenhouse gas emissions, and 1.8 to 2.7°C, assuming high greenhouse gas emissions. The forecasts regarding change in precipitation are less clear. Some forecasts predict a slight increase in annual precipitation, while others project irregular variations in precipitation. The extreme climate hazards, the probability of which could increase with climate change, are torrential rains followed by floods and droughts.

From south to north, the biological diversity is composed of five large phytogeographic zones, each with a specific fauna: the Guinean forest zone of dense humid forests; the Sudano-Ubangian zone, sheltering dense semi-humid, open and dry forests; the Sudano-Guinean and Sudano-Sahelian zones, composed of various types of savannahs; and the Sahelian zone, consisting of steppes.

The population of the Central African Republic is estimated at 5 million, with a demographic growth on the order of 2.5%/year. It is predominantly rural (62.1%), female (50.2%) and young (49.4% less than 18 years of age). The country is sparsely and unevenly populated. The average population density is 7.2 inhabitants per Km². Decades of military and political crises have destroyed the nascent development and the last conflict of 2012-2013 spread insecurity throughout the population, destroyed the productive fabric and dismantled the administrative machinery.

The Central African Republic is among the poorest countries on the planet, with a human development index estimated at 0.341 in 2013. Poverty affects more than half the population, with the corollaries of food insecurity and a lack of basic social services. The Central African economy still relies on a primary agricultural sector with low value added and intensive use of poorly qualified and essentially rural manpower. To the various internal constraints to the country’s development, including the low level of industrialisation and the land-locked nature of the country, are added the ongoing changes in the climate, which are reflected in different impacts: slow and gradual changes in the environment, variation in the seasons and on occasions extreme climate events (floods, droughts, tropical storms etc.) that may result in natural disasters.

The annual emissions of the Central African Republic, estimated at 116,285.49 kt eq-CO₂ in 2010, or 26 tons eq-CO₂/person, represent less than 0.002% of global emissions. Despite its low rate of GHG emissions, the Central African Republic reaffirms its adherence to the principle of collective but differentiated responsibility and, in accordance with Decision 1CP/19, is taking the present ambitious measures to respond to this challenge without impeding its economic, social and environmental development.

However, the vulnerability to changes in the climate and a lack of ability to adapt to their adverse impacts represent serious threats to the management of ecosystems and other agricultural and renewable natural resources, social cohesion, stability and sustainable development. Thus, the Central African Republic is obliged to take into account the adaptation of its land, its communities and its socioeconomic activities in this effort to contribute to the mitigation of climate change. The incorporation of an adaptation component in the INDC is thus a strategic choice that is vital to the country. Moreover, not only do most of the adaptation measures, particularly those that help deal with land use change and reduce the fundamentally non-remunerative nature of agriculture, also contribute to mitigation. However, the adaptation component, which concerns the poorest, most exposed and most vulnerable populations, is an occasion to promote throughout the national territory socioeconomic development on a fair and sustainable basis that can meet the challenges of improving access to the country and preventing inter-regional conflicts.

The Central African Republic’s vision is “to become an emerging country, built upon an economy that is diversified, sustainable and uniformly shared throughout the national territory, a modern state open to the world and committed to an ethic and to technological innovation.” The general objectives of the Central African Republic’s INDC are focussed on sustainable, low-carbon development and growing resilience of the sectors of agriculture and food security, health, management of natural resources and infrastructure against the adverse effects of climate change.

The process of developing the INDC is based on a review of the literature, consultation of the stakeholders and the directives for evaluating greenhouse gas emissions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). At the institutional level, a Technical Group of Multi-Sectoral National Experts responsible for developing the INDC has been established.

Section 1. Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions

General objectives

The Central African Republic aspires to reduce its emissions by 5% and 25%, respectively, in the 2030 and 2050 horizons in comparison to its reference BaU emissions and to increase its sequestration potential. With international support, it will emit around 33,076.1 kt eq-CO₂ less in 2050 than the annual reference emissions.

The Central African Republic also aspires to reduce emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCP), which science has shown have a significant short-term climate-warming potential and harmful effects on health, agriculture and ecosystems.

Reference data

Figure 1: Inventory of greenhouse gases in 2010 (Ministry of Environment, Ecology and Sustainable Development, 2013)

Key (left to right): INDC emissions; INDC sequestration; Agriculture; Other energy; Wood energy; Waste; Industrial processes

The reference data show the inventory of greenhouse gases in 2010 as published in the Second Communication of the Central African Republic. Greenhouse gas emissions total 116,285.49 kt eqCO₂ with sectoral contributions of 89.46% for land use change and forestry; 5.26% for agriculture; 5.19% for energy (of which 4.91% is wood energy); 0.09% for waste and marginal amounts for industrial processes and use of solvents. In addition, the sequestration potential is evaluated at 330,000 kt eq-CO_2,, 62% for land abandoned after use and 38% for biomass.

Reference scenario

The assumptions of the reference scenario are based on:

• The success of the Emergency Programme for Sustainable Recovery (PURD), the principle objectives of which are return to constitutional order, consolidation of the peace and security, as well as restructuring of public finances and the primary sector.
• The resumption of sustained economic growth for the diversification and intensification of economic activities, including increase of the energy supply and updating of the National Agricultural Investment and Food Security and Nutrition Programme (PNIASAN) and the National Industrialisation Programme.
• Development of individual, institutional and systemic capacities.

In 2050, the Central African Republic will emit around 189,271.8 ± 94,635.4 kt eq-CO₂, i.e. 62.7% more than in 2010, with sectoral contributions of 68.4% for land use change and forestry; 13.4% for energy (10.7% of which is for wood energy); 13.4% for agriculture; 3.2% for water; and finally 1.6% for industrial processes and use of solvents.

Figure 2: Change in greenhouse gas emissions in the Central African Republic (kt eqCO₂)

Key: Light blue: Industrial processes-use of solvents (IP-US); Purple: Waste; Olive: Energy; Oragne: Agriculture; Green: Land use change and forestry (LUCF)

Taking into consideration the net rate of deforestation, which is 0.155% (EDF 2013), the country’s potential for sequestration will be 310,146.43 ± 155,073.22² kt eq-CO₂ in 2050, while it was 330,000 kt eq-CO₂ in 2010, a reduction of 6.02%.

However, it should be noted that the Central African Republic’s climate forecasts, which show an increase in rainfall and insolation, are favourable for the appearance of forest re-growth throughout the country. This phenomenon will increase the sequestration capacity of the forests.

Greenhouse gas mitigation measures

The national contributions consist of::

• Unconditional measures within the ongoing national initiatives, namely the development of industrial forestry sites and the national reforestation initiated since 1980, the outreach programme to gradually abandon slash-and-burn agriculture and burning of agricultural waste and the promotion of low-energy light bulbs initiated by the national power company Energie Centrafricaine (ENERCA) within the framework of the energy conservation policy, and the promotion of improved cook stoves.
• Conditional measures, which will be implemented thanks to international support in the sectors of land use change and forestry (LUCF), energy, agriculture, industrial processes and waste (table 1).

Table 1 : Conditional mitigation measures

The implementation of the unconditional mitigation measures will make it possible to reduce greenhouse gas emission by 4,062 kt eq-CO₂ and 10,410 kt eq-CO₂, respectively, in 2030 and 2050. With the support of the international community, the Central African Republic will reduce 5,500 kt eq-CO₂ and 47,320 kt eq-CO₂, respectively, in 2030 and 2050.

Figure 3: Expected changes in greenhouse gas emissions

Section 2. Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change

The Central African Republic is at the same time in a post-conflict situation and in political transition, which exposes it to a considerable level of socioeconomic vulnerability. Moreover, the entire national territory is exposed to extreme climate hazards represented by drought and torrential rains followed by floods. The torrential rains and floods affect principally the southern part of the country, while drought is more present in the north and northeast. The rural populations that are the poorest are the ones that are most exposed. Thus, climate changes affect 75% of the Central African population.

In this regard, the INDC, by enhancing resilience to climate change in the key sectors, an essential element of sustainable development, can contribute to national cohesion, stabilisation of the country, restoration of authority and of government actions. In addition, it will facilitate a programmatic approach to increasing the adaptation capabilities of communities, ecosystems and the activity sectors of agriculture, animal husbandry, forests, health and other sectors vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change.

Adaptation options and objectives

Eight adaptation options have been identified from the 27 objectives derived from the national priorities. Five ongoing initiatives that enjoy the support of international development partners and 15 prospective adaptation measures are presented below as preconditions for developing a National Adaptation Plan that defines a group of measures to be taken at various decision-making levels (region, prefecture etc.).

Adaptation option 1: Adjustment of the policy framework

Objective 1. Integrate climate change adaptation measures into the policies and programmes for the development of the most vulnerable priority sectors³;

Objective 2. Improve awareness, education and communication regarding adaptation and the risks associated with climate change.

Adaptation option 2: Improve knowledge about resilience to climate change

Objective 3. Enhance capabilities for handling climate change data at the national, regional and local levels.

Objective 4. Study the resilience mechanisms of the agricultural, forestry and animal husbandry systems.

Objective 5. Establish an early warning system.

Adaptation option 3: Sustainable management of the agricultural, forestry and animal husbandry systems

Objective 6. Introduce varieties that are adapted to climate extremes

Objective 7. Diversify agricultural systems by including several types of crops and diversifying varieties.

Objective 8. Diversify means of livelihood and systems of production (fishing, aquaculture, agriculture, animal husbandry, hunting and forests).

Objective 9. Establish a seed bank (animal and plant).

Objective 10. Promote agricultural and forestry systems and sustainable soil management.

Objective 11. Promote urban, suburban and community forestry.

Objective 12. Restore degraded forest landscapes.

Objective 13. Sustainably manage transhumance corridors and conflicts between agriculturalists and pastoralists.

Adaptation option 4: Land-use planning

Objective 14. Establish land-use plans by type of use (road infrastructure, mines/petroleum, agriculture, animal husbandry, forests, protected areas or wildlife reserves, urban spaces etc.).

Adaptation option 5: Improvement and development of basic infrastructure

Objective 15. Improve the standards for infrastructure construction.

Objective 16. Develop structures adapted to climate change.

Adaptation option 6: Guarantee energy security

Objective 17. Diversity energy sources.

Objective 18. Develop hydroelectric installations (including micro-dams).

Objective 19. Promote the use of wood waste as fuel for forestry companies.

Objective 20. Promote the use of improved cook stoves.

Adaptation option 7: Improve public health systems

Objective 21. Develop a system for monitoring, preventing and effectively responding to the human diseases associated with climate change.

Objective 22. Establish a waste management plan.

Objective 23. Develop waste management units.

Objective 24. Find uses for wastes.

Adaptation option 8: Sustainable management of water resources

Objective 25. Improve the supply of potable water.

Objective 26. Establish a system for monitoring water quality.

Objective 27. Develop a system for monitoring underground and surface water resources.

Adaptation measures

Ongoing adaptation measures

− Resilience and food security project in the city of Bangui and its Ombella-Mpoko suburbs.
− Southwest Region Development Project (PDRSO).
− Enhancement of agroecological systems in the Lake Chad basin (PRESIBALT/ PRODEBALT).
− Sustainable management of fauna and bush meat in central Africa (GCP/RAF/455/GFF).

Prospective adaptation measures

-Programme to integrate climate change into development plans and strategies.
− Development of a National Climate Change Adaptation Plan.
− Evaluation of needs and development of a national strategy in the area of technology transfer.
− Prepare eligibility for the Green Climate Fund.
− National early warning programme.
− Flood management programme in the Central African Republic.
− Ubangi riverbank development project.
− Drought management programme in the Central African Republic.
− National investment programme for agriculture, food security and resilience to climate change.
− National transhumance management programme.
− Multi-landscape management of biodiversity resources through non-ligneous forest products.
− Promotion of urban and suburban forestry in the large cities of the Central African Republic.
− Implementation and monitoring of forest management plans.
− Enhancing climatic resilience and the transition to low carbon emission development in the Central African Republic through sustainable management of forests by means of better land-use planning.
− Prevention of waterborne diseases and other seasonal pathologies.
− Planning of drinking water supply systems in the Central African Republic.

Probability of co-benefits of adaptation and mitigation measures

We note that all the measures relating to the agriculture and forestry sector can generate mitigation co-benefits. For example, the objective of the National Programme for Investment in Agriculture, Food Security and Nutrition (PNIASAN) is to attain and maintain an annual agricultural GDP rate of 6% and a food insecurity rate of 15%. It envisages the mobilisation of 70% of the population to initially enhance 661,826 ha of land, with a planned expansion of 28.6%, reaching 851,750 ha in five years. The inclusion of climate-sensitive agroecological approaches (smart agriculture) in the PNIASAN with a view to increasing productivity and yield may make it possible to keep each farmer on the same original parcel of land for five years, which will make it possible to minimise or complete avoid increases in area and thus capitalise the deforestation (28%) avoided over the four years following the start-up of the project. To do this, it is necessary to revise the PNIASAN and consequently increase its budget through the contribution of the expected conditional funds, particularly from the Green Climate Fund.

Section 3. Implementation

The Central African Republic envisages a holistic approach, integrating adjustment of national policies and strategies, improvement of the legislative and regulatory frameworks, and capacity development and transfer of technology in certain priority areas.

Need for technology transfer and capacity development

The target sectors and technologies are summarised in the following table:

Table 3 : Target areas and technologies

Technology transfer will include a capacity development programme to be adopted at various levels, both institutional and local.

Need for financing

The needed financing totals US $3.802 billion over the commitment period, i.e. US $2.248 billion to implement the mitigation measures and US $1.554 billion for the development of resilience to climate change.

Underestimation of the cost of investments needed for adaptation may keep in place the development gap caused by climate hazards. The approach taken by the FUND model, which will be supported by the preparatory work of the National Adaptation Plan, estimates the country’s needs for adaptation to climate change at an average of around US $34,500,000 per year up to 2030 and an average of US $57,500,000 per year up to the year 2050.

Moreover, the Central African Republic, a non-Annex 1 country, supports the inclusion of international market instruments, such as the Clean Development Mechanism, in a post-2020 climate agreement. Such an instrument may be used to help finance certain investments in low-carbon infrastructure that is resilient to climate change.

The Central African Republic considers that certain low-carbon development options and supplementary actions could be entirely or partially financed by the international transfer of carbon assets, taking into consideration environmental integrity and transparency factors.

It is important to provide resources for the studies leading up to the mitigation, adaptation and technology transfer activities.

Table: Financial resources for implementation

Obstacles to be overcome

For the financial effort expected from the Central African Republic’s international partners to be fully effective, the funds must be effectively used. Moreover, the following difficulties also have to be surmounted:

• Military and political crises: for the past several decades these have contributed to weakening of all of the country’s institutions, political instability, insecurity and extreme poverty. The ongoing programme to develop social cohesion and bring the country together should make it possible to stabilise the situation.
• The lack of synergy between sectoral policies and institutions: this leads to jurisdictional conflicts and underperformance and affects the efficiency of the government. It can delay the achievement of the INDC’s objectives. The ongoing improvement in inter-ministerial coordination should respond to this concern.
• The illiteracy rate (estimated at 67% in 2008): this limits access to information and to opportunities, the acquisition of skills and, as a consequence, the level of the citizen’s contribution to carrying out public policies and meeting the government’s international commitments. Educational programmes are ongoing and basic literacy should be improved.
• The absence of interregional socioeconomic equality leads to frustration and social tensions. The government will implement a decentralisation programme that will permit decentralised entities to play a full role.
• The government’s insufficient capacity for investment does not permit it to cover by itself the costs of implementing the INDC. The actions and support of the development partners and the improvement of the business climate are necessary to carry out the Central African Republic’s INDC.
• Poor ability to absorb funds and deal with the lenders’ procedures will affect the smooth implementation of the programmes. The enhancement of individual and institutional capabilities will improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the programmes.
• Extreme poverty: when joined to the other factors listed above, this has been a breeding ground for violence for several decades. The implementation of the antipoverty strategy is a specific priority for significantly reducing extreme poverty.

Monitoring and notification of progress

The Central African Republic’s INDC is a development policy with low carbon emissions and low emissions of short-lived climate pollutants. In this regard, the Central African Republic will put in place an appropriate national measurement, notification and verification system. Moreover, the government will organise regular consultations with the stakeholders at the national, regional and local level to both update the actions and make sure that they are carried out.