REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget (2027-2034)
Date: 2026-07-03
Institutions: Directorate-General for Budget, European Commission
Subjects: EU budget, EU expenditure, Member States' contribution, budget policy, budgetary resources, long-term forecast, multiannual financial framework, own resources

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 3.7.2026  COM(2026) 365 final  REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget (2027-2034)  
 
 
Table of Contents 

1. 
2. 

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 
Forecast of outflows of the EU budget  2027-2034 .......................................................................................................... 1 

2.1. 

2.2. 

2.3. 

2.4. 

Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF ........................................................... 3 

Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2028-2034 MFF ........................................................... 4 

Decommitments ........................................................................................................................................................................... 5 

Evolution of the level of outstanding commitments ............................................................................................. 6 

3. 

Forecast of inflows of the EU budget  2027-2034 ............................................................................................................. 6 

3.1. 

Revenue sources .......................................................................................................................................................................... 7 

4. 
Conclusions .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 
Annex II – Results of the forecast ......................................................................................................................................................................... 10 
Table 1.1 – Long-term forecast of future outflows over 2027-2034 for the MFF............................................................... 10 
Table 1.2 – Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF .................................................................... 11 
Table 1.3 – Payments for the completion of pre-2021 commitments ......................................................................................... 12 
Table 1.4 – Payments for 2028-2034 commitments .............................................................................................................................. 13 
Table 2 – Forecast decommitments 2027-2034........................................................................................................................................ 14 
Table 3 – Outstanding commitments 2027-2034 ..................................................................................................................................... 15 
Table 4 – Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget of 2027 and 2028-2034 MFF ............................ 16 

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1.  Introduction 

This report projects the inflows and outflows of the EU budget in accordance with Article 253(1)(c) of the Financial 
Regulationi.  This  sixthii edition  forecasts  the  revenue  and  expenditure  stemming  from  the  Multiannual  Financial 
Framework (MFF) 2021-2027iii, and the 2028-2034 MFF based on the Commission’s proposal for the next MFFiv for 
payments on 2028-2034 commitments. 

On  the  expenditure  side, the  report  forecasts payments  arising  from  commitments entered  into  under  the  current 
and previous MFFs, including the stock of outstanding commitments (RAL) expected at the end of 2027. As in last 
year’s report, it also projects payments related to commitments that would be entered into under the 2028-2034 
MFF on the basis of the Commission proposal for the next MFF. 

Revenue  for  2027  is  based  on  the  draft  budget  2027.  Revenue  as  of  2028  is  forecast  based  on  the  2025 
Commission proposal for a new Own Resources Decisionv. The revenue projections also consider the Agreement on 
the  withdrawal  of  the  United  Kingdom  of  Great  Britain  and  Northern  Ireland  from  the  European  Union  and  the 
European Atomic Energy Communityvi (‘Withdrawal Agreement’). 

The  estimates  for  payments  presented  in  this  report  are  based  on  the  revised  expenditure  ceilings  (technical 
adjustment  of  the  MFF  for  2027)vii and  the  commitment  appropriations  included  in  the  draft  budget  for  2027viii, 
which incorporates the programme-specific adjustments under Article 5 of the MFF Regulationix (MFFR)x as well as 
re-use of decommitments under Article 15(3)xi of the Financial Regulation. 

As  regards  NextGenerationEU,  all  net  borrowing  to  finance  new  disbursements  will  be  completed  by  the  end  of 
2026.  Subsequently,  only  minor  amounts,  mainly  for administrative  expenditure  will  be  made.  NextGenerationEU 
disbursements fall outside of the scope of this report, which covers the period as of 2027. 

2.  Forecast of outflows of the EU budget  

2027-2034 

Over  the  period  2027-2034,  payments  are  estimated  at  EUR 2 173 billionxii.  The  estimated  annual  average  of 
outflows of the EU budget is EUR 272 billion. 

They are composed of: 

• 

Payments on commitments made in the MFF 2021-2027 and earlier MFFs 

Payments on commitments made in the MFF 2021-2027 are paid partly in 2027 and partly in the MFF 2028-2034, for an 
estimated total of EUR 527 billion, or EUR 75.3 billion on average for 2027-2033. Around 40% of those payments, i.e. 
EUR 210 billion are expected in 2027 in line with the draft budget proposal. The remaining EUR 317 billion is projected to 
be  paid  mostly  in  the  first  3  years  of  the  new  MFF.  This  is  consistent  with  past  implementation  patterns  as  the 
programmes (notably cohesion policy) are reaching cruising speed. The payments on outstanding commitments stemming 
from MFFs prior to 2021-2027 are estimated at EUR 5.9 billion, or EUR 0.8 billion on average for 2027-2033. They are 
expected to decrease and be phased out by end 2033. 

• 

Payments on commitments for the MFF 2028-2034  

As  per  the  Commission  proposal  for  the  MFF  2028-2034  of  July  2025  and  last  year’s  report,  payments  on 
commitments made in the MFF 2028-2034 are on average EUR 234 billion per year, totalling  EUR 1 641 billion 
over  the  period.  Payments  are  overall  rather  frontloaded  to  the  first  half  of  the  7-year  period  as  the  new 

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programmes  are  expected  to  have  a  quicker  implementation  pattern.  As  explained  in  last’  year  report,  the 
frontloading is the result of measures proposed to facilitate a timely start and a smoother implementation profile, 
resulting in a more even pattern of payments over the period. 

Chart 1 - Payments forecast by category 

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2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

Pre-2021 commitments

2021-2027 commitments

2028-2034 commitments

Compared with the estimates underpinning the Commission proposal of July 2025, the current forecast indicates a 
lower  level  of  payments  by  EUR  18  billion  linked  to  changes  in  RAL  payments  (i.e.  payments  on  commitments 
entered into before 2028). This difference is mainly driven by the acceleration of payments under the 2021-2027 
cohesion policy in 2026 and 2027, which reduces the stock of outstanding commitments expected at the end of the 
current  MFF  and,  consequently, the  level  of  payments  on  pre-2028  commitments required  during  the  2028-2034 
period.  

The  proposed  payment  ceiling  for  the  2028-2034  MFF  remains  sufficient  to  cover  overall  the  payment  needs 
currently forecast over the period, with some variations across years. Under the current assumptions, payments may 
exceed the annual ceilings in 2030 (EUR 14 billion), 2032 (EUR 6 billion) and 2033 (EUR 4 billion). Payments would 
be below the ceilings in years 2028 (EUR 4 billion), 2029 (EUR 17 billion), and 2031 (EUR 21 billion). To ensure that 
the  payment  ceiling  is  respected  in  each  year  of  the  MFF,  the  use  of  the  mechanisms  provided  for  in  the  MFF 
Regulation to adjust annual payment ceiling levels may be required. 

The  resulting  difference  between  the  overall  current  payment  forecast  and  the  proposed  MFF  payment  ceilings 
should,  however,  be  interpreted  with  caution.  While  the  forecast  for  payments  on  existing  commitments  benefits 
from more recent implementation data, the payment profile of programmes under the  future MFF is subject to the 
outcome of the ongoing negotiations. Changes to the overall size and composition of the MFF may affect the timing 
and level of future payment needs. 

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Chart 2 - Payments forecast compared to MFF payment ceiling for the period 2027-2034 

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Payment needs

Payment ceiling incl. special instruments

2.1.  Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF 

Cohesion and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) represent more than half of the  projected payments stemming 
from the 2021-2027 MFF.  

Heading 2a - Cohesion policy 

The implementation of cohesion policy funds is accelerating compared to last long-term payment forecast reportxiii. 
The reinforcement for cohesion policy in 2026xiv (EUR 3.4 billion for the European Regional Development Fund, EUR 
0.6 billion for the Cohesion Fund, EUR 1.4 billion for the European Social Fund Plus) requires additional funding to 
cover the higher payment claims. 

This  acceleration  is  the  result  of  Member  States  submitting  in  2025  payment  applications  well  beyond  the  n+3 
decommitment rule, driven by the flexibilities and financial incentives provided to Member States as part of the mid-
term  review  of  cohesion  policy  and  the  Strategic  Technologies  for  Europe  Platform  (STEP)  Regulation.  This  has 
increased the pressure on the 2026 budget (as reflected in the proposal for a draft amending budget 2/2026). This 
acceleration is forecast to continue in 2027 and 2028.  The 2027 and 2028 forecast assumes that the submission of 
payment claims would align with the historical profile in the coming years, leading to disbursement of about 18% of the 
funds’ allocations in 2027, and to around 50% of the total allocations to be paid out from 2028 onwards. 

Heading 3 - Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Just Transition Fund  

The  payments  forecast  for  Pillar  I  of  the  CAP,  market-related  expenditure  and  direct  payments,  amounts  to 
EUR 40.6 billion in 2027, reflecting the most recent draft budget. 

The  implementation  of  Pillar  II  under  the  CAP  strategic  plans  –  the  European  Agricultural  Fund  for  Rural 
Development  (EAFRD)  –  began  in  2023.  The  transitional  provisions  extending  the  2014-2020  programmes  until 

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2022 enabling their continued implementation  under the  n+3 rule provided one more  year to  complete payments 
compared to the rules for the 2023-2027 CAP strategic plans, which are subject to the N+2 rule. 

The  forecast  of  payments  stemming  from  the  MFF  2021-2027  includes  payments  from  the  2023-2027  CAP 
Strategic Plans as well as those linked to the extension of the rural development programmes to 2021 and 2022, 
which  will  be  completed  by  2027.  The  forecast  also  considers  the  transfers  between  pillars  of  the  Common 
Agricultural Policy communicated by Member Statesxv, which resulted in a net transfer of EUR 5.5 billion from Pillar I 
(EAGF) to Pillar II (EAFRD) for the years 2023-2027. 

The  implementation  of  the  2023-2027  CAP  plans  is  expected  to  reach  its  peak  in  2028  with  lower  payments  in 
2029  and  later  in  2030,  and  closure  expected  in  2031.  The  completion  of  the  2014-2022  operational  rural 
development programme and the latest payments are expected in 2027. 

For  the  Just  Transition  Fund,  payments  to  date  have  been  predominantly  financed  under  its  NextGenerationEU 
component,  which  will  be  used  until  the  end  of  2026,  in  line  with  legal  deadlines.  The  first  substantial  payments 
under the MFF component are expected from 2026 onwards. 

Other programmes and headings 

The  Ukraine  Reserve,  a  special  instrument  that  mobilises  support  for  expenditure  over  and  above  the  MFF 
expenditure ceilings for 2024-2027, is foreseen to conclude most payments by end-2027. EUR 0.9 billion would be 
covered in the 2028-2034 MFF as payments on outstanding commitments. 

2.2.  Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2028-2034 MFF 

The payments for the 2028-2034 MFF are forecast at EUR 1 641 billion over the period, covering over 80% of the MFF. 
Taking into account that the negotiations on the next MFF are ongoing, the data presented in the section are based on the 
Commission proposal of July 2025 and are as such the same as in last year’s report.  

Heading 1 – Economic, social and territorial cohesion, agriculture, rural and 
maritime prosperity and security 

The main driver of the payments profile in the 2028-2034 MFF will be the National and Regional Partnership Plans 
with a total EUR 965 billion forecast payments for the heading overall.  

As of 2028, the EU is due to start the repayment of the debt issued under NextGenerationEU. For the MFF 2028-
2034, the  Commission  proposes  a  fixed  amount  of  EUR 24 billion  per year in  current  prices  for  the  repayment  of 
interest and capital of the non-repayable support provided under NextGenerationEU. This means an overall amount 
of EUR 168 billion over 2028-2034.  

The  remaining  payments  in  relation  to  this  heading  are  mostly  for  decentralised  agencies  (such  as  Frontex  and 
Europol) where the EU payments are made in full in the same year as the subsidy to the agency is committed. 

Heading 2 – Competitiveness, prosperity and security 

Payments  under  heading  2  total  EUR 424 billion.  Payments  are  mainly  driven  by  the  European  Competitiveness 
Fund and Horizon Europe. 

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Heading 3 – Global Europe 

Payments under heading 3 total EUR 135 billion. Payments are mainly driven by Global Europe.  

Special instruments 

Special instruments fall under two categories: 

Thematic instrument (Ukraine) – The Ukraine Reserve will be a thematic special instrument (EUR 100 billion) to 
allow  the  Union  to  finance  Ukraine’s  recovery  and  reconstruction  efforts  as  well  as  supporting  the  country’s 
accession  path  via  pre-accession  assistance.  All  support  to  Ukraine  will  be  channelled  and  implemented  through 
Global Europe. The MFF Regulation foresees that the annual amount mobilised under the Ukraine Reserve in a given 
year shall not exceed EUR 13.5 billion in 2025 prices.  On 24 February 2026, the a Regulationxvi establishing a EUR 
90  billion  Ukraine  support  loan  was  adopted.  On  23  May  2026,  the  2021-2027  MFF  Regulation  was  amended  to 
allow the financial backing of this loan under the EU budget headroom, over and above the MFF ceilings, as well as 
to create a special instrument for the financing of the interest rate subsidy provided by the Union to Ukraine for the 
loan.  This  expenditure  and  the  related  contingent  liabilities,  to  be  covered  under  the  EU  budget  headroom,  is  not 
included in the EUR 100 billion Ukraine Reserve proposed in July 2025.  

Non-thematic  instruments  –  allocating  additional  amounts  for  specific  MFF  programmes  subject  to  specific 
conditions. Their mobilisation and the subsequent payment needs cannot be forecast. For the Flexibility Instrument, 
the  MFF  Regulation  for  2028-2034  foresees  at  minimum  an  annual  fixed  amount  of  EUR 2 000 million  in  2025 
prices. 

The expenditure covered by the mobilisation of special instruments is counted in addition to the MFF ceilings and is 
excluded for the purpose of establishing the margins for commitments and payments. Due to their nature and since 
they are subject to decisions of the budgetary authority on annual basis, the amounts for 2028-2034 presented in 
this report do not account for the mobilisation of these special instruments. 

2.3.  Decommitments 

The  forecast  of  decommitments  stemming  from  programmes  under  the  current  and  prior  MFFs  until  end-2034 
stands  at  EUR 11 billion.  It  is  substantially  driven  by  the  cohesion  programmes  under  the  current  MFF  and  the 
European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD).  

The  MFF  2028-2034  proposes  substantive  changes  to  the  delivery  modes  aimed  at  simplifying  and  accelerating 
implementation, leading to a full take up of the commitments in the next MFF. Therefore, no specific decommitment forecast 
is assumed for programmes under the next MFF. 

Heading 2a – Cohesion policy 

Considering  the  latest  available  information,  decommitments  for  the  completion  of  the  programmes  2014-2020 
have  increased  compared  to  last  year’s  report  from  EUR 0.5 billion  to  EUR 1.6 billion.  Overall,  the  risk  of 
decommitments at the end of 2027 for the programmes 2021-2027 is low thanks to accelerated implementation, 
and additional  pre-financing  stemming  from  the  mid-term  review  of  cohesion  policy.  In  2025  and  2026,  Member 
States have submitted  payment applications  exceeding the n+3 decommitment  rule, and this trend is expected to 
continue in 2027. However, EUR 0.4 billion of decommitments are expected at closure, in line with implementation 
patterns of the previous programming period. 

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Heading 3 - Common Agricultural Policy  

The  forecast  of  decommitments  from  rural  development  programmes  2014-2022  has  decreased  compared  to  the  last 
forecast, from EUR 3.1 billion to EUR 1.5 billion expected in 2027. Earlier decommitments amounted to EUR 0.3 billion. Overall, 
decommitments under EAFRD for the 2014-2022 programmes are now estimated at 1.5% of the total allocation, noting an 
improvement compared to the 2007-2013 rural development programmes where the share of decommitments stood at 2%. 
As regards the timing, decommitments are expected by end-2027 when the closure of payments will be processed.  

At present, an amount of EUR 1 billion is expected to be  decommitted under the 2023-2027 CAP Strategic Plans. 
Those decommitments are expected to take place between 2026 and 2030.  

Other programmes and headings 

For the programmes directly or indirectly managed by the Commission, the decommitment forecast is built on the 
latest project-level information. The projections for the decommitments related to the MFF 2021-2027 programmes 
are presented in table 2. They are consistent with the estimates from the payment schedules. However, the precise 
year  of  decommitment  cannot  be  forecast  with  precision,  as  it  depends  on  the  closure  of  individual  projects  and 
actions. 

2.4.    Evolution of the level of outstanding commitments 

The next MFF is expected to start with EUR 321 billion RALxvii, which is a decrease of EUR 18 billion compared to last year’s 
forecast  (EUR 339 billion). This result is mostly driven  by the  revised expectations for  cohesion  policy  programmes and 
increased  payments  in  2026-2027.  The  expected  lower  RAL  at  the  start  of  the  next  MFF  is  directly  translated  in  the 
corresponding lower forecast of payments for the completion of pre-2028 programmes in the next MFF. 

NextGenerationEU  RAL  will  be  absorbed  by  end-2026  when  all  the  payments  will  be  completed,  except  for  small 
amounts mainly linked to administrative expenditure. 

Although the RAL is projected to increase in nominal terms from EUR 321 billion at the start of the MFF to EUR 344 
billion at the end of 2034, its relative weight in the EU economy and in relation to the size of the MFF is expected to 
decline. The RAL would decrease from 1.6% of EU GNI at the end of 2027 to 1.3% at the end of 2034 and represent 
around  one  fifth  of  the  2028-2034  MFF,  a  lower  ratio  than  projected  for  the  current  MFF.  This  points  to  a  more 
contained  stock  of  outstanding  commitments  than  under  previous  programming  periods  and  a  reduced 
concentration  of  payments  beyond  the  end  of  the  MFF.  The  projected  development  reflects  both  the  stronger 
implementation  observed  towards  the  end  of  the  current  MFF  and  the  implementation  features  proposed  for  the 
2028-2034  MFF, which are  expected to lead to a  timelier execution of programmes and a lower accumulation of 
outstanding commitments over time. 

3.  Forecast of inflows of the EU budget  

2027-2034 

For 2027, revenue is based on the draft budget 2027. Revenue as of 2028 remains as forecast in last year’s report 
as  they  reflect  the  Commission  proposal  for  a  new  Own  Resources  Decision,  which  is  currently  negotiated.  The 
residual  GNI  own  resource  estimate  is  mechanically  adjusted  to  ensure  an  overall  balance  with  the  forecast 
payments, which have been updated for the completion of pre-2028 programmes.   

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The EU budget is financed by own resources and other revenue. In addition, the Union is empowered to borrow funds 
to finance NextGenerationEU, which are channelled into the budget through external assigned revenue – with the net 
borrowing ending in 2026.  

The own resources needed to finance the budget are determined by total expenditure less ‘other revenue’. The forecast of 
the EU budget revenue is based on the principle that expenditure must be matched by revenue; therefore, total revenue 
equals total expenditure.  

Since 2021, in line with the Withdrawal Agreement (part V), the United Kingdom contributes to the EU budget in relation to 
outstanding commitments of previous financial frameworks. The United Kingdom’s contribution constitutes ‘other revenue’ of 
the  EU  budget.  It  will  progressively  phase  out  as  payments  on  outstanding  commitments  are  made  in  the  next  MFF,  as 
presented in section 2.1. For 2028-2034, ‘other revenue’ includes the updated United Kingdom contribution. 

Own resources – currently traditional own resources as well as VAT, plastics and GNI-based own resources – account 
for most of the revenue needed to finance budget expenditure. The spending cycle determines the development of 
Member States’ own resources contributions over the forecast period. 

3.1.    Revenue sources 

For 2027 the revenues in this report reflect the draft budget 2027. For the next MFF, own resources are projected in 
line  with  the  Commission  proposal  of  July  2025.  As  per  the  forecast  accompanying  the  Commission  proposal, 
traditional own resources (customs duties) are projected to grow at the same  rate as GNI in current prices of each 
Member  State  starting  from  the  level  of  gross  customs  duties  projected  for  the  draft  budget  2026,  using  the 
parameters of the new Own Resources Decision proposal for the next MFF. 

Revenue from the VAT-based own resource is projected starting from the VAT bases of the individual Member States 
included in the draft budget 2026. The VAT bases are projected to grow at the same rate as GNI in current prices. 

The  plastics-based  own  resource  is  projected  starting  from  non-recycled  plastic  packaging  waste  included  in  the 
draft  budget  2026.  The  corresponding  plastic  packaging  waste  is  projected  to  grow  at  the  same  rate  as  GNI  in 
constant  prices.  Recycling  rates  are  projected  to  converge  linearly  towards  the  EU  recycling  target  of  55%,  which 
must be achieved by 2030.  

The  GNI-based  own  resource  for  the  EU-27  is  calculated  as  the  remaining  difference  between  all  other  own 
resources and  other  revenue  on  the  one  hand  and  the  forecast  expenditure  on  the  other.  The  parameters  for the 
own resources specified in the Own Resources Decision determine the Member States’ share in the total amount of 
own resources contributions that is needed to balance the EU budget. 

The Commission proposal for an Own Resources Decision includes several additional own resources. 

The revenue forecast for the own resource based on the European Emission Trading System (ETS1) is based on an 
assumed carbon price of EUR 88.33 in 2025 prices. The number of auctioned emission allowances is derived from 
the legal provisions in the ETS Directivexviii. 

Regarding the own resource based on e-waste, first the underlying non-collected waste of electrical and electronic 
equipment (WEEE) in a Member State in a given year is calculated.  Then, collection rates are projected to converge 
linearly towards the EU collection target of 65% by 2034.  

Revenue from the Tobacco Excise Duty Own Resource is projected based on the Tobacco Excise Duty Directive and 
its proposed recast.  

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Revenue from the own resource based on the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is projected assuming 
the same carbon price as for ETS1.  

The  projections  for  the  Corporate  Resource  for  Europe  (CORE)  are  based  on  2023  firm-level  data  from  the  Orbis 
database.  An  annual  lump-sum  contribution  from  all  companies  that  operate  and  sell  in  the  EU  is  applied  as 
specified in the Commission proposal for a new Own Resources Decision. 

Other revenue of the EU budget includes staff contributions, revenue accruing from the administrative operation of 
the  institutions, contributions  and refunds  in  connection  with  Union  agreements  and  programmes, interest  on  late 
payments  and  fines,  revenue  from  borrowing  and  lending  operations,  revenue  from  fees  not  assigned  to  specific 
expenditure, and miscellaneous revenue  – as well as surpluses from previous years. Given their inherent volatility, 
most  of  these  components  are  difficult  to  forecast  in  the  long  run.  Therefore,  the  annual  amount  included  in  the 
Commission proposal for the next MFF of July 2025 (i.e. EUR 3 billion) is assumed to remain nominally constant over 
the forecast period. 

Since  2021,  in  addition  to  the  above-mentioned  items,  other  revenue  of  the  EU  budget  includes  the  United 
Kingdom’s contribution related to outstanding commitments (RAL) for which the United Kingdom is liable, pension 
obligations and other components of the financial settlement, as laid down in the Withdrawal Agreement xix. This is 
also reflected in the proposed financing of the draft budget 2027. 

The contribution of the United Kingdom  related to outstanding commitments on 31 December 2020 is determined 
by applying the  United Kingdom’s financing share to the  forecast RAL payments for each year of the  2027-2034 
period.  The  resulting  annual  contribution  takes  into  account  the  payment  modalities  set  out  in  Article  148  of  the 
Withdrawal Agreement. 

The forecast of other revenue includes the United Kingdom’s contribution to pension liabilities for Members and EU 
high-level  public  office  holders  as  specified  in  Article  142(5)  of  the  Withdrawal  Agreement.  The  United  Kingdom 
contribution  to  staff  pensions  (an  estimated  EUR  351  million  in  the  draft  budget  2027)  enters  the  EU  budget  as 
external assigned revenue and is therefore not part of the long-term forecast of other revenue. 

In any given year, the total own resources collected by the Union may not exceed the own resources ceiling set in 
the Council Decision (EU, Euratom) 2020/2053 of 1.4% of EU-27 GNI, with an additional temporary increase of 0.6% 
of  EU  GNI  for  covering  all  liabilities  of  the  Union  from  the  borrowing  on  the  capital  markets  to  fund 
NextGenerationEU. 

The proposed new Own Resources Decision sets the own resources ceilings for the period 2028-2034 as follows: 

•  1.75% for the permanent ceiling. 
•  0.6% for the ceiling covering all liabilities of the Union from the borrowing on the capital markets to fund 

NextGenerationEU. 

•  0.25% for the crisis instrument, in case of activation. 

The  available  margin  under  the  permanent  own  resources  celling  (so-called  headroom)  is  expected  to  decline  as 
payments are expected to increase in 2027 compared to 2026, while the Union’s gross national income is expected 
to increase proportionally less over the same year. The margin under the permanent own resources ceiling in 2027 
will be around EUR 84 billion. 

For 2028-2034, the margin under the new permanent ceiling proposed by the Commission is estimated at EUR 155 
billion per year on average and the margin under the NGEU temporary  ceiling at EUR 116  billion on average. This 
reflects updates in the forecast EU GNI for the Spring 2026 economic forecast, the updated needs for pre-2028 RAL 
payments  and  the  minimal  update  in  non-own  resources  payments  linked  to  the  UK  contribution  under  the 
Withdrawal Agreement. 

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For  both  the  permanent  and  NGEU  temporary  own  resources  ceiling,  the  margin  represents  the  free  space  below 
those ceilings after taking into account the own resources needed to finance the  EU  budget expenditures, and for 
the  temporary  ceilings  –  the  own  resources  to  cover  the  costs  for  NextGenerationEU  interest  coverage  and 
repayments  (as  of  2028).  This  headroom  is  needed  to  cover  additional  outflows  related  to  the  possible 
materialisation  of  contingent  liabilities  and  possible  additional  payment  appropriations.  Compared  to  the 
Commission  Proposal  for  the  next  MFF  in  July  2025,  there  are  additional  contingent  liabilities due  to  the  Ukraine 
Support  Loan  which  need  to  be  covered  via  the  headroom  (i.e.  the  principal  amount  of  EUR  90  billion  and  the 
associated financing costs). 

4.  Conclusions 

The  forecast  confirms  that  the  payment  ceiling  proposed  by  the  Commission  for  the  2028-2034  MFF  remains 
sufficient to cover the expenditure currently expected over the period. 

Compared with the estimates underlying the Commission proposal of July 2025, the forecast for payments related 
to commitments entered into before 2028 has been revised downwards. This reflects stronger implementation and 
higher  payment  execution  during  the  final  years  of  the  current  MFF,  resulting  in  a  lower  stock  of  outstanding 
commitments  at  the  end  of  2027.  The  profile  of  payments  stemming  from  pre-2028  commitments  nevertheless 
remains dependent on implementation developments in 2026 and 2027. 

At the same time, the forecast for payments linked to programmes proposed under the 2028-2034 MFF continues 
to  be  based  on  the  Commission  proposal  of  2025.  As  negotiations  on  the  future  MFF  are  ongoing,  parameters 
affecting future payment needs remain subject to change. 

The  differences  currently  observed  between  the  forecast  level  of  payments  and  the  proposed  payment  ceiling    is 
subject to change, as payment requirements  under the next MFF  cannot  yet  be fully  established. The reduction in 
estimated payments related to pre-2028 commitments reflects updated information on legacy needs, whereas the 
payment profile of future programmes remains provisional. 

The  current  forecast  should  therefore  be  regarded  as  an  intermediate  assessment  based  on  the  Commission 
proposal and the information available at this stage.  

The  forecast  also  points  to  a  more  contained  level  of  outstanding  commitments  relative  to  the  size  of  the  EU 
economy  and  of  the  future  MFF.  This  positive  development  reflects  both  the  stronger  implementation  observed 
towards the end of the current programming period and the implementation profile under the Commission proposal 
for the MFF 2028-2034. 

The revenue to finance the budget follows the MFF expenditure cycle. The proposed package of new own resources 
is expected to reduce the burden on Member States’ VAT and GNI-based contributions. 

9 

 
 
Annex II – Results of the forecast 

All values are in billions of EUR, current prices, unless otherwise specified. Some totals may not tally due 
to rounding. 

Table 1.1 – Long-term forecast of future outflows over 2027-2034 for the MFF 

Year 

2027  2028  2029  2030  2031  2032  2033  2034 

TOTAL 

Commitment Ceiling  188.8 

269.5 

282.9 

283.1 

290.4 

294.1 

285.4 

279.7  2 173.7 

Payment Ceiling 

199.7 

270.0 

300.7 

297.1 

292.8 

277.4 

274.7 

267.5  2 179.8 

Commitments 
(programmed)* 

199.9 

269.5 

282.9 

283.1 

290.4 

294.1 

285.4 

279.7 

2 184.8 

Forecast Payments** 

212.0 

265.6 

284.1 

310.7 

272.0 

283.4 

278.5 

267.5 

2 173.9 

Of which Special 
Instruments*** 

12.8 

0.7 

0.3 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

13.8 

* In line with the draft budget for 2027 for year 2027, including the Ukraine Reserve allocation and appropriations stemming from Article 5 of the 
MFF Regulation and Article 15(3) of the Financial Regulation and Article 15(3) of the Financial Regulation. 

** The amounts for special instruments in 2027 cover the Solidarity and Emergency Aid Reserve, the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund, the 
Brexit Adjustment Reserve, the Ukraine Reserve, the EURI Instrument, and the Flexibility Instrument. For subsequent years, only the payments on 
outstanding commitments for the Flexibility Instrument and the Ukraine Reserve, including for the Ukraine Support Loan debt service cost, are 
included. In the subsequent tables, the payments related to the mobilisations of special instruments are included within the respective headings. 

10 

 
 
 
Table 1.2 – Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF 

MFF Heading 

2027 

2028 

2029 

2030 

2031 

2032 

2033 

Total 

1 Single Market, 
Innovation and Digital 

2 Cohesion, Resilience 
and Values 

2.1 Economic, Social and 
territorial cohesion 

22.1 

16.5 

8.3 

6.5 

3.1 

3.5 

1.5 

61.5 

81.8 

69.0 

57.9 

53.4 

5.1 

0.9 

0.4 

268.5 

64.7 

66.5 

56.6 

52.7 

5.0 

0.7 

0.3 

246.5 

2.2 Resilience and Values 

17.1 

2.5 

1.4 

0.7 

0.1 

0.2 

0.1 

22.0 

3 Natural Resources and 
Environment 

3.1 Market related 
expenditure and direct 
payments 

3.2 Other programmes of 
Natural Resources and 
Environment 

4 Migration and Border 
Management 

61.4 

17.9 

13.8 

2.4 

2.4 

0.4 

0.2 

98.5 

40.6 

0.2 

0.1 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

40.9 

20.7 

17.8 

13.7 

2.4 

2.4 

0.4 

0.2 

57.5 

3.8 

2.8 

1.6 

1.0 

0.7 

1.9 

0.8 

12.6 

5 Security and Defence 

2.2 

2.1 

1.6 

1.3 

0.9 

0.3 

0.1 

8.5 

6 Neighbourhood and the 
World 

7 European Public 
Administration 

O Outside the MFF 
ceilings 

16.0 

12.7 

11.1 

6.3 

3.4 

2.8 

1.2 

53.4 

13.7 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

13.7 

7.6 

0.6 

0.3 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

Special Instruments 

1.9 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

Total 

210.3  121.7 

94.5 

70.9 

15.6 

9.8 

4.2 

527.0 

11 

8.4 

1.9 

 
 
 
Table 1.3 – Payments for the completion of pre-2021 commitments 

MFF Heading 

2027 

2028 

2029 

2030 

2031 

2032 

2033 

Total 

1 Single Market, 
Innovation and Digital 

2 Cohesion, Resilience 
and Values 

2.1 Economic, Social 
and territorial cohesion 

2.2 Resilience and 
Values 

3 Natural Resources and 
Environment 

3.1 Market related 
expenditure and direct 
payments 

3.2 Other programmes 
of Natural Resources 
and Environment 

4 Migration and Border 
Management 

0.7 

0.5 

0.2 

0.2 

0.1 

0.2 

0.1 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.1 

0.1 

0.1 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

2.1 

0.1 

0.0 

0.1 

0.4 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.1 

0.1 

0.1 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.4 

0.1 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

5 Security and Defence 

0.0 

0.1 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

6 Neighbourhood and the 
World 

0.7 

0.7 

0.6 

0.5 

0.3 

0.2 

0.1 

Total 

1.7 

1.4 

0.9 

0.8 

0.4 

0.5 

0.2 

5.9 

12 

0.1 

0.1 

3.1 

 
Table 1.4 – Payments for 2028-2034 commitments 

MFF Heading 

2028 

2029 

2030 

2031 

2032 

2033 

2034 

Total 

1. Economic, social and 
territorial cohesion, 
agriculture, rural and 
maritime prosperity and 
security 

2. Competitiveness, 
prosperity and security 

108.0 

122.6 

150.8 

150.7 

157.8 

144.3 

130.3 

964.6 

14.8 

40.6 

57.4 

68.8 

73.1 

82.9 

86.2 

423.7 

3. Global Europe 

4.8 

9.9 

14.6 

19.6 

24.8 

28.9 

32.3 

4. Administration 

14.9 

15.6 

16.3 

16.9 

17.5 

18.1 

18.7 

134.8 

117.9 

Total 

142.6 

188.7 

239.0 

256.0 

273.2 

274.1 

267.5  1 641.0 

13 

 
Table 2 – Forecast decommitments 2027-2034 

MFF Heading 

Completion 

MFF 2021-
2027 

Total 

1 Single Market, Innovation and Digital 

2 Cohesion, Resilience and Values 

2.1 Economic, Social and territorial cohesion 

2.2 Resilience and Values 

3 Natural Resources and Environment 

3.1 Market related expenditure and direct payments 

3.2 Other programmes of Natural Resources and 
Environment 

4 Migration and Border Management 

5 Security and Defence 

6 Neighbourhood and the World 

1.1 

1.7 

1.6 

0.1 

2.3 

0.0 

2.3 

0.6 

0.1 

0.3 

1.3 

1.3 

0.4 

0.9 

1.2 

0.0 

1.2 

0.0 

0.0 

1.0 

2.4 

2.9 

2.0 

0.9 

3.5 

0.0 

3.5 

0.6 

0.1 

1.3 

Total 

6.0 

4.9 

10.9 

The forecast for decommitments does not distinguish between fund sources for decommitments. 

14 

 
 
Table 3 – Outstanding commitments 2027-2034 

Source 

RAL start-2028* 

Commitments 
2028-2034 

Payments 2028-
2034 

RAL 

end-2034 

MFF 

320.9 

1984.9 

1961.9 

343.9 

* The RAL at the start of 2028 excludes amounts generated from other fund sources or revenues and estimated decommitments. 

15 

 
 
 
Table 4 – Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget of 2027 and 2028-2034 MFF 

INFLOWS 

2027* 

2028 

2029 

2030 

2031 

2032 

2033 

2034 

Total 

Own Resources ceiling in % 
of EU Gross National 
Income** 

Of which temporary increase for 
NGEU 

Own Resources ceiling 
expressed in EUR billion 

Of which temporary increase for 
NGEU 

2.00% 

2.35% 

2.35% 

2.35% 

2.35% 

2.35% 

2.35% 

2.35% 

n/a 

0.60% 

0.60% 

0.60% 

0.60% 

0.60% 

0.60% 

0.60% 

0.60% 

A 

403.8 

493.0 

511.4 

530.1 

548.0 

566.1 

584.2 

602.3 

A’ 

121.2 

125.9 

130.6 

135.3 

139.9 

144.5 

149.1 

153.8 

n/a 

n/a 

n/a 

Total own resources 

B 

208.9 

262.2 

281.0 

307.6 

269.0 

280.5 

275.6 

264.6 

2149.4 

Of which own resources to 
finance NGEU liabilities 

of which  
Net amount of traditional own 
resources*** 

B’ 

9.9 

24.0 

24.0 

24.0 

24.0 

24.0 

24.0 

24.0 

 25.0 

34.5 

35.7 

36.8 

38.0 

39.2 

40.4 

41.6 

291.3 

VAT-based own resource 

26.0 

26.6 

27.5 

28.3 

29.2 

Plastic-based own resource 

6.5 

9.3 

9.5 

9.7 

9.9 

30.1 

10.1 

31.0 

10.3 

31.9 

10.5 

230.4 

75.6 

European Emission Trading 
System-based own resource 
(ETS1) 

8.8 

11.7 

11.3 

13.0 

11.7 

10.3 

8.8 

75.6 

16 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
INFLOWS 

2027* 

2028 

2029 

2030 

2031 

2032 

2033 

2034 

Total 

E-waste-based own resource 

16.2 

16.5 

16.7 

16.9 

17.1 

17.3 

17.4 

118.0 

Tobacco Excise Duty-based 
own resource  

Carbon Border Adjustment 
Mechanism (CBAM)-based own 
resource 

Corporate Resource for Europe 
(CORE) 

13.0 

12.7 

12.4 

12.8 

12.5 

12.2 

12.7 

88.3 

0.9 

1.0 

1.3 

1.5 

1.9 

2.0 

2.2 

10.8 

7.4 

7.5 

7.5 

7.6 

7.7 

7.8 

7.9 

53.3 

GNI-based own resource 

151.4 

145.5 

159.1 

183.7 

140.1 

150.3 

144.4 

131.6 

1 205.9 

Other revenue (incl. fees and 
provisional UK contribution, 
European Travel Information 
and Authorisation System 
(ETIAS) fee) 

C 

3.1 

3.4 

3.2 

3.1 

3.0 

2.9 

2.9 

2.9 

24.4 

TOTAL REVENUE 

D=B
+C 

212.0 

265.6 

284.1 

310.7 

272.0 

283.4 

278.5 

267.5 

2 173.9 

Available margin under the  
Own Resources ceiling  

A-B 

194.9 

230.7 

230.4 

222.5 

279.0 

285.6 

308.5 

337.8 

n/a 

of which margin under the 
temporary increase for NGEU 

A'- 
B’ 

111.2 

101.9 

106.6 

111.3 

115.9 

120.5 

125.1 

129.8 

n/a 

*  Corresponds to DB2027 figures, based on Own Resources Decision 2020.  
** Own Resources ceiling – calculated based on the Spring 2026 economic forecast for the gross national income of the EU-27  
*** Traditional own resources are estimated on the basis of a 10% retention rate for collection costs for 2028-2034.  

17 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
i Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/2509 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 September 2024 on the 
financial rules applicable to the general budget of the Union (recast), OJ L 2024/2559, 26.9.2024. 

ii COM(2021)343, 30.6.2021. This is the first edition of this report for the 2021-27 MFF period. 

iii Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/765 of 29 February 2024 amending Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2093 
laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 2027, OJ L, 2024/765, 29.02.2024. 

iv Proposal for a Council Regulation laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2028 to 2034. 
COM/2025/571 final. 16.07.2025.   

v Proposal for a COUNCIL DECISION on the system of own resources of the European Union and repealing Decision 
(EU, Euratom) 2020/2053. COM(2025) 574 final. 16.07.2025. 

vi OJ C66 I, 19.2.2019, p.1. 

vii Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council – Technical adjustment of the 
multiannual financial framework for 2027 in accordance with Article 4 of Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 
2020/2093 laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 2027. COM(2026) 299  

viii Statement of estimates of the European Commission for the financial year 2027. SEC(2026) 250. 

ix Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/765 of 29 February 2024 amending Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2093 
laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 2027, OJ L, 2024/765, 29.02.2024. 

x Article 5 of the MFF Regulation provides for the additional allocation in commitment and payment appropriations 
for a pre-defined list of programmes, for an amount equivalent to certain types of fines. 

xi Article 15(3) of the Financial Regulation provides that commitment appropriations corresponding to the amount of 
de-commitments made in relation to research projects may be made available again. 

xii Unless otherwise specified, all amounts in the report are expressed in current prices. 

xiii Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council. Long-term forecast of future inflows 
and outflows of the EU budget (2026-2034). COM(2025) 573 final. 16.07.2025. 

xiv Draft amending budget no. 2 to the general budget 2026. Update of revenue (own resources) and adjustments to 
expenditure. COM(2026) 460 final. 09.06.2026. 

18 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
xv Member States decided to transfer funds between direct payments and rural development. The result was set out 
in Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2026/1 of 1 December 2025 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/2115. 

xvi Regulation (EU) 2026/467 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 24 February 2026 implementing 
enhanced cooperation on the establishment of the Ukraine Support Loan for 2026 and 2027. 

xvii This amount does not include decommitments and payments from other fund sources, such as assigned 
revenues. 

xviii Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 October 2003 establishing a scheme 
for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Community and amending Council Directive 96/61/EC 

xix All components of the United Kingdom contribution are laid down in Article 148 of the Withdrawal Agreement. The 
forecast only includes components which are quantifiable at this stage, namely the provisional United Kingdom 
contribution to the financing of payments resulting from outstanding commitments prior to 2021 for which the 
United Kingdom is liable under Article 140 and pension liabilities specified under Article 142.5 of the Withdrawal 
Agreement as well as the amounts the Union owes to the United Kingdom under Article 145 (European Coal and 
Steel Community) and Article 146 (Union investment in the EIF). 

19