COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Fiscal Statistical Tables providing background data relevant for the assessment of the budgetary policies of the Member States Accompanying the document RECOMMENDATION FOR A COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on the 2026 economic, social, employment, structural and budgetary policies of Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland and Sweden
Date: 2026-06-03
Institutions: European Commission, Reform and Investment Task Force
Subjects: EU Member State, budget policy, economic policy, economic recovery, economic reform, employment policy, public finance, social policy, stability pact

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 3.6.2026  SWD(2026) 200 final  COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Fiscal Statistical Tables providing background data relevant for the assessment of the budgetary policies of the Member States        Accompanying the document RECOMMENDATION FOR A COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on the 2026 economic, social, employment, structural and budgetary policies of Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland and Sweden {COM(2026) 201-227 final}  
 
 
This  document  contains  tables  that  provide  relevant  background  data  for  the  assessment  of  the 
budgetary policies of Member States made in spring 2026.  

With the reform of the economic governance framework (1), fiscal surveillance in the EU focusses 
on  one  single  operational  indicator,  namely  net  nationally  financed  primary  expenditure  or  ‘net 
expenditure’. Box 1 explains the derivation of this new indicator and of the control account, which is 
set up by the Commission to keep track of observed annual and cumulative upward and downward 
deviations of net expenditure from the path recommended by the Council.  

For  all  Member  States,  this  Staff  Working  Document  includes  a  set  of  tables  in  the  order  listed 
below(2). For most tables, the projections from the Annual Progress Reports (APRs)(3) submitted by 
the Member States are shown side-by-side with those of the Commission Spring 2026 Forecast(4). 

Table  1  (Key  macroeconomic  and  fiscal  figures)  shows  main  macroeconomic  variables, 
including real GDP growth and HICP inflation, and main fiscal variables. The table also reports the 
European  Commission’s  estimate  of  the  fiscal  stance  indicator  and  its  components.  The  indicator 
measures  the  short-term  impulse  to  the  economy  from  discretionary  fiscal  policy  (nationally 
financed, as well financed by EU grants). See Box 2 for more information. 

Table  2  (Net  expenditure  growth)  recalls  the  most  recent  maximum  net  expenditure  growth 
rates  recommended  by  the  Council  to  the  Member  State,  as  well  as  the  outturn  (for  2025)  and 
forecast (for 2026 and 2027) of net expenditure growth.  

Table 3 (Macroeconomic developments and forecasts) shows the main macroeconomic data, 
including real GDP growth and its components, the output gap, employment, unemployment, labour 
productivity,  HICP 
the  GDP  deflator,  compensation  of  employees,  and  net 
borrowing/lending vis-à-vis the rest of the world.  

inflation, 

Table  4  (General  government  budgetary  position)  shows  data  on  the  main  general 
government revenue and expenditure components.  

Table  5 (Debt  developments)  shows the  evolution  of  general  government  debt  and  provides  a 
breakdown  of  the  change  in  the  debt-to-GDP  ratio  based  on  the  contributions  of  the  primary 
balance,  the  ‘snow-ball  effect’  (reflecting  the  relationship  between  nominal  GDP  growth  and 
interest expenditure) and the stock-flow adjustment (that is, other factors that have an impact on 

(1)  Regulation 2024/1263 of the European Parliament and of the Council (EU) on the effective coordination of economic 
policies and on multilateral budgetary surveillance, together with the amended Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 on the 
implementation of the excessive deficit procedure and the amended Council Directive 2011/85/EU on the budgetary 
frameworks of Member States are the core elements of the reformed EU economic governance framework. 

(2)  For some Member States particular tables are not available so the numbering in the country sections might differ from the 

one presented in this section. 

(3)  The APRs can be found here: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-governance-framework/stability-and-growth-

pact/preventive-arm/annual-progress-reports_en  

(4)  Spring 2026 Economic Forecast can be found here: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-
surveys/economic-forecasts/spring-2026-economic-forecast-slowdown-growth-energy-shock-drives-inflation_en 

1 

 
 
 
 
general  government  debt,  such  as  differences  between  cash  and  accrual  recording,  or  the  net 
accumulation of financial assets). 

Table  6  (Assessment  of  compliance)  provides  background  data  to  assess  compliance  of 
Member  States  with  the  recommended  net  expenditure  growth.  Panel  A  (Net  expenditure, 
annual  and  cumulated  deviations  vis-à-vis  the  current  recommendation)  of  the  table  is 
provided  for  all  Member  States.  The  panel  offers  a  detailed  derivation  of  net  expenditure  as 
calculated  on  the  basis  of  the  Commission  Spring  2026  Forecast,  as  well  as  the  annual  and 
cumulated  deviations  from  the  most  recent  recommended  maximum  net  expenditure  path.  See 
Box 1  for  more  information.  The  annual  and  cumulated  deviations  from  the  recommended 
maximum  net  expenditure  growth  rates  until  2025  (included)  correspond  to  the  control  account 
balances as referred to in Article 22 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263. Panel B of Table 6 (Defence 
expenditure and the national escape clause) is only included for those Member States which 
benefit from the flexibility under the national escape clause for defence expenditure. In such case, 
the  table  presents  the  deviations  from  the  recommended  maximum  growth  rates  of  net 
expenditure after considering the flexibility from the national escape clause. For outturn data, the 
balance  corresponds  to  the  augmented  control  account  (cumulated  balance  after  flexibility,  see 
Box 1). 

In cases where the net expenditure path was recently superseded (Ireland, Finland) or is projected 
to  be  superseded  (the  Netherlands)  by  a  new  net  expenditure  path,  a  similar  table  (Net 
expenditure,  annual  and  cumulated  deviations  vis-à-vis  the  previous  recommendation) 
also provides the deviations from the previous path until 2025 (included)(5). Similarly, panel B is 
provided for Finland, as it benefitted from the flexibility provided by the national escape clause for 
defence expenditure under the previous recommendation.  

Table  7  (Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility  –  Grants)  presents  data  on  grants  from  the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility as reported by the Member States in the Annual Progress Reports, 
their  cash  disbursements  and  the  expenditure  categories  (or  other  costs)  financed  by  those 
grants(6). 

Table 8 (Recovery and Resilience Facility  – Loans), where applicable,  presents data on cash 
disbursements and repayments of loans from/to the Recovery and Resilience Facility as reported by 
the Member States in the Annual Progress Reports. 

The Fiscal Statistical Tables are complemented by three thematic boxes: 

Box  1  (Derivation  of  the  net  expenditure  indicator  and  of  the  control  account)  offers  a 
derivation  of  ‘net  expenditure’  and  explains  how  the  control  account  of  the  Stability  and  Growth 
Pact  is  operationalised.  The  control  account  tracks  deviations  from  the  recommended  net 
expenditure  path,  taking  into  account,  where  relevant,  the  flexibility  granted  under  the  national 
escape  clause  for  defence.  The  control  account  underpins  the  conclusions  of  the  Commission’s 
assessment of EU Member States’ fiscal developments.  

Box 2 (Derivation of the indicator of the fiscal stance) provides details on the definition of 
the fiscal stance and its components. 

Box 3 (Statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows) summarises 
the fundamental principles underlying the recording of these transactions. 

(5)  This is Table 7 for Ireland, the Netherlands and Finland. 

(6)  This is Table 8 for Ireland, the Netherlands and Finland. 

2 

 
 
Box 1 Derivation of the net expenditure indicator and of the control account  

Tables 2 and 6 monitor the growth rate of net nationally financed primary expenditure ‘∆NNPEt’ 
or  ‘net  expenditure’.  With  the  entry  into  force  of  the  new  economic  governance  framework  on 
30 April 2024, net expenditure has become the new single indicator for fiscal surveillance. Article 
2(2)  of  Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263  defines  net  expenditure  as  government  expenditure  net  of 
interest expenditure, discretionary revenue measures, expenditure on programmes of the Union 
fully  matched  by  revenue  from  Union  funds,  national  expenditure  on  co-financing  of 
programmes funded by the Union, cyclical elements of unemployment benefit  expenditure, and 
one-off measures.  

The growth rate of net expenditure is calculated in four steps: 

1. Calculating the absolute level of the net expenditure aggregate (before discretionary revenue 
measures) for a given year (line 7 of Table 6, panel A)(7). 

NPEt=Et-It-Ut-Et

EU funded- Et

nat. cofinanced-Oneofft
E 

By  deducting  estimates  for  the  cyclical  component  of  unemployment  benefits,  an  important 
element  of  expenditure  driven  by  the  business  cycle  is  excluded.  EU-funded  expenditure  is 
excluded as it has no impact on the government deficit or on debt sustainability. Nationally co-
financed expenditure is also excluded. By definition, one-off expenditures have only a transitory 
budgetary effect and hence do not lead to a sustained change in the budgetary position.  

2.  Calculating  the  absolute  change  in  net  expenditure  (before  discretionary  revenue  measures) 
between two years (line 8 of Table 6).  

∆NPEt=NPEt-NPEt-1 
In  some  cases,  when  there  is  a  break in  the  time  series  of the  net  expenditure  aggregate  this 
step also involves a correction for such a break.(8)   

3.  Deducting  the  incremental  impact  of  discretionary  revenue  measures  excluding  one-off 
revenue  measures  to  arrive  at  the  absolute  change  in  net  expenditure  (after  discretionary 
revenue measures) (line 10 in Table 6). 

∆NPEt

R 
*=∆NPEt-∆DRMt+∆Oneofft

The  deduction  of  discretionary  revenue  measures  works  in  two  directions:  measures  that 
increase  revenue  have  a  dampening  effect  on  net  expenditure,  while  measures  that  lead  to 
decreased  revenue  increase  net  expenditure.  The  calculation  also  excludes  discretionary 
measures that can be qualified as one-off, as the latter have only a transitory budgetary effect 
and  hence  do  not  lead  to  a  sustained  change  in  the  budgetary  position.  Finally,  discretionary 
revenue measures only refer to revenue measures that are not compensated by EU grants.  

4. Calculating the growth rate of net expenditure by comparing the change with the starting level 
of net expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures) in t-1 (line 11 of Table 6). 

(7)  The steps described here are presented for all Member States vis-à-vis their current recommendation, and also vis-à-
vis  their  previous  recommendation  if  their  recommended  net  expenditure  was  recently  superseded  (Ireland,  the 
Netherlands and Finland; see table 7 for these countries). 

(8)   A  typical  example  would  be  a  reclassification  of  an  institutional  unit  inside  (or  outside)  general  government.  A 
reclassification  inside  (outside)  general  government  in  a  given  year  would  typically  imply  a  sudden  increase 
(decrease) in government expenditure in this year. Since this is merely a statistical artefact resulting from broadening 
(narrowing) the government perimeter in that year, this should therefore not be seen as resulting from more (less) 
dynamic government expenditures.  

3 

 
 
 
growth rate (NPEt

*)= 

*
∆NPEt
NPEt-1

*100 

NPEt 

* 
∆NPEt
Et 
It 
Ut 
EU funded 
Et
nat.  cofinanced 
Et

∆DRMt 

Oneofft 

(before 

financed  primary  expenditure 

Net  nationally 
discretionary revenue measures) 
Absolute change in net nationally financed primary expenditure 
(after discretionary revenue measures) 
General government total expenditure 
Interest expenditure 
Cyclical elements of unemployment benefit expenditure 
Expenditure  on  programmes  of  the  Union  fully  matched  by 
revenue from Union funds 
National co-financing of EU programmes 
Discretionary revenue measures (incremental impact, excluding 
revenue measures compensated by EU grants) 
One-off  measures  (revenue  or  expenditure,  indicated  by 
superscript R or E respectively, impact in levels) 

The  annual  growth  rates  of  net  expenditure  calculated  this  way  are  then  compared  to  the 
recommended  growth  rates  of  net  expenditure  (Line  12),  as  per  the  Council  recommendation. 
The difference between these two growth rates is multiplied by the level of the previous year’s 
net expenditure aggregate before the annual incremental impact of DRMs is taken into account 
(Line  7),  thus  expressing  the  annual  deviation  in  national  currency  (Line  13).  The  cumulative 
deviation  (Line  14)  is  derived  by  adding  annual  deviations  in  national  currency.  A  positive 
(negative) deviation indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum 
net  expenditure  path.  The  annual  deviation  (Line  13)  is  divided  by  the  nominal  GDP  level 
(Line 17).  The  reporting  of  the  balances  in  terms  of  percentage  of  nominal  GDP  follows  the 
provision of the underlying legislation.  

The cumulated deviation in national currency (Line 14) is equal to the previous year’s cumulated 
deviation plus the current year’s annual deviation (Line 13). The cumulated balance (Line 16) is 
then equal to the cumulated deviation (Line 14) divided by the level of nominal GDP of the last 
year  (Line  17).  This  methodology  ensures  the  additivity  of  the  annual  deviations  in  national 
currency(9). Deviations from the recommended maximum annual and cumulative growth rates of 
net expenditure are recorded in annual and cumulated terms since the base year of the relevant 
recommendation. Positive deviations are compared to the thresholds of 0.3% of GDP in annual 
terms and 0.6% of GDP in cumulated terms in line with Article 2(2) of the amended Regulation 
(EC) No 1467/97. 

The  observed  deviations  (i.e.  those  that  are  based  on  outturn  data)  presented  in  Table  6, 
correspond  to  the  ‘control  account’,  as  described  in  Article  22  of  Regulation  2024/1263.  The 
control  account  keeps  track  of  cumulative  upward  and  downward  deviations  of  observed  net 
expenditure  from  the  net  expenditure  path  as  set  by  the  Council,  based  on  outturn  data.  In 
addition, Table 6 also presents the projected deviations implied by the Commission forecast.  

For  Member  States  for  which  the  national  escape  clause  is  activated  by  the  Council,  the 
Commission also calculates an augmented control  account. It identifies all deviations from the 
recommended net expenditure path but only registers as debits those deviations that exceed the 

(9)   Small differences could emerge between the sum of the annual balances and the cumulated balance (expressed in % 

GDP) of the control account due to GDP developments (leading to changes in the denominator).  

4 

 
 
 
 
 
 
flexibility under the national escape clause. For these Member States, the Commission applies a 
two-step approach in its fiscal assessments(10):  

In a first step, the deviations from the recommended maximum net expenditure path are 

1. 
calculated as presented above.  

2. 
In case of an upward deviation from the recommended net expenditure path, in a second 
step, the Commission examines whether this deviation is allowed under the conditions of the 
national  escape  clause  for  defence.  The  flexibility  under  the  national  escape  clause  allows 
deviations from the recommended maximum growth of net expenditure corresponding to the 
increase in defence expenditure(11) compared to the reference year, up to 1.5% of GDP over 
the  period  2025  to  2028.  Upward  deviations  from  the  recommended  expenditure  path 
beyond what the national escape clause allows are registered as debits(12).  

For  Member  States  that  benefit  from  flexibility  under  the  national  escape  clause  and  that 
observe positive deviations in their annual or cumulated balances of the control account or in the 
projected  balances  going  forward,  panel  B  of  Table  6  (Defence  expenditure  and  the  national 
escape  clause)  present  the  cumulated  balance  after  flexibility.  The  observed  deviations  after 
flexibility  (i.e.  those  that  are  based  on  outturn  data)  correspond  to  the  ‘augmented  control 
account’. Panel B of Table 6 also presents the projected deviations after flexibility implied by the 
Commission forecast(13).  

As explained above, for Member States where the recommended maximum net expenditure path 
has  recently  been  superseded  (or  is  projected  to  be  superseded)  by  a  new  Council 
recommendation, these fiscal statistical tables include two Tables assessing compliance. Table 6 
presents  the  deviations  against  the  maximum  net  expenditure  path  as  set  by  the  most  recent 
Council  recommendation  and  is  therefore  mainly  forward  looking.  Table 7  presents  an  ex  post 
assessment  of  the  deviations  against  the  previous  recommendation,  and  is  therefore  entirely 
backward looking. For simplicity, Table 2 only shows the most recent Council recommendation. 

Box 2 Derivation of the indicator of the fiscal stance 

Traditionally,  the  fiscal  stance  is  defined  as  a  measure  of  the  annual  change  in  the  underlying 
budgetary position of the general government. It may serve to assess the impact of fiscal policy on 
an economy’s aggregate demand, as well as the speed at which the underlying budgetary position 
converges  towards  budgetary  targets.  Using  the  same  indicator  to  gauge  two  different  concepts 
was  appropriate  under  the  assumption  that  government  expenditure  was  funded  by  national 
revenue sources and debt-financing, without large external transfers. However, in the presence of 
sizeable transfers from the EU budget (such as those from the Recovery and Resilience Facility or 
other EU grants), conventional indicators do not fully capture the additional fiscal impulse provided 

(10)  The steps described here are presented for those Member States which under the current recommendation benefit 

from the national escape clause (panel B of Table 6) and for those Member States that have also benefitted from the 
national escape clause under their previous recommendation (panel B of Table 7). 

(11) The defence spending relevant to the assessment of compliance is the nationally financed defence expenditure as 

defined in the classification of the functions of government (COFOG02).  

(12)   In  the  augmented  control  account  only  the  accumulated  deviations  matter  and  are  compared  to  the  threshold  of 

0.6% of GDP. 

(13)  Panel B of Table 6 presents calculations related to the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendation 

while panel B of Table 7 for Finland vis-à-vis the previous recommendation. 

5 

 
 
 
 
by the EU budget, as the related expenditure is offset by matching revenue from the EU. 

The fiscal stance reported in Table 1 for each Member State aims to assess the economic impulse 
stemming from fiscal policies, both those that are nationally financed and those that are financed 
by the EU budget. It measures the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the 
incremental 
impact  of  discretionary  revenue  measures,  excluding  cyclical  unemployment 
expenditure, but including the  change  in  expenditure  financed  by  Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility 
grants and other EU  funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year)  average potential GDP growth 
rate,  in  nominal  terms.  A  negative  (positive)  sign  indicates  an  excess  (shortfall)  of  primary 
expenditure  growth  over  medium-term  potential  GDP  growth,  which  corresponds  to  an 
expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. 

Fiscal Stancet=

R)
(1+Pott)∙(1+πt)∙NEt-1-(NEt-∆DRMt+∆Oneofft
GDPt

Where  ‘Pott’  is  the  medium-term  (10-year)  average  potential  GDP  growth  rate,  ‘πt’  is  the  GDP 
deflator, and NEt=Et-It-Ut- Oneofft

E, in a given year ‘t’. 

The expenditure aggregate ‘NEt’ comprises primary expenditure (total expenditure ‘Et’ less interest 
E’, in a 
expenditure ‘It’), net of cyclical unemployment benefits ‘Ut’ and one-off expenditure ‘Oneofft
R stand  for  the  incremental  budgetary  impact  of 
given  year  ‘t’.  In  turn,  ‘∆DRMt’  and  ∆Oneofft
discretionary revenue measures and one-off revenue measures revenue, in a given year ‘t’.  

Box 3 Statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows 

Eurostat  has  issued  guidance  on  the  statistical  recording  of  flows  related  to  the  Recovery  and 
Resilience Facility (RRF). (14). The following fundamental principles guide the statistical recording of 
RRF-related flows: 

•  RRF grants are recorded by matching the time of recording of revenue from the 
EU  with  the  time  of  recording  of  expenditure  financed  by  these  grants.  This  is 
irrespective of the timing of disbursements or pre-financing. This approach is by analogy to 
the  recording  of  the  traditional  EU-fund  related  flows  and  it  is  often  referred  to  as  the 
'principle  of  neutrality  of  EU  flows'.  It  ensures  that  timing  differences  - leads  or  lags - 
between disbursements  and  concrete  spending  do not  have  an  effect  on  the  government 
balance. This principle is well established, including in the ESA 2010 Regulation. 

•  The government sector is the counterpart of the RRF grants. While some RRF grants 
may ultimately be channelled to non-governmental entities in the form of subsidies and/or 
transfers,  the  RRF  Regulation  establishes  that  the  financing  applies  at  the  level  of 
payments  from  the  European  Commission  to  the  Member  States  as  beneficiaries, 
irrespective  of  the  further  use  of  the  RRF  funds.  This  is  somewhat  different  from  the 
statistical  recording  of  other  EU  fund-related  flows,  where  the  beneficiary,  for  national 
accounts purposes, can be either the government or a non-governmental entity. 

•  Loans extended by the RRF to a Member State add to its government’s debt. At the 

(14)  ‘Guidance note on the statistical recording of the Recovery and Resilience Facility’, Eurostat, September 2021. 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
same  time,  borrowing  taken  out  by  the  European  Commission  to  finance  RRF  grants  is 
considered as EU debt and, therefore, it is not attributed to the Member States. 

In  the  Fiscal  Statistical  Tables,  these  fundamental  principles  underlie  the  statistical  reporting  of 
RRF-related  flows  as  presented  in  Table  1  (Key  macroeconomic  and  fiscal  figures,  as  far  as  the 
fiscal  stance  is  concerned),  Table  4  (General  government  budgetary  position),  Table  6  (Net 
expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the recommendation)(15), Table 7 (Recovery 
and  Resilience  Facility  –  Grants),  and,  where  applicable,  also  in  Table  8  (Recovery  and  Resilience 
Facility – Loans). 

Recent  RRP  revisions  may  have  led  to  changes  in  the  measures  funded  by  RRF  grants 
and  loans.  Existing  measures  may  have  changed  from  loan  to  grant  funding  (or  the  other  way 
around),  new  measures  may  have  been  added  for  grant  or  loan  funding,  while  others  may  have 
been removed. In several cases, these changes also apply to expenditures that already took place in 
previous  years.  For  the  retroactively  introduced  expenditure  funded  from  RRF  grants,  the 
corresponding  revenue  from  the  EU  is  recorded  as  a  one-off  revenue  at  the  time  of  Council 
adoption  of  implementing  decisions  approving  RRP  amendments  (i.e.  in  2025  or  2026).  On  the 
other hand, for expenditure previously funded by RRF grants, which is retroactively removed from 
the RRP, a one-off expenditure is recorded at the time of the Council adoption of the implementing 
decision.  

(15)  Including in the additional Table 7 for Ireland, the Netherlands and Finland, on deviations of net expenditure vis-à-vis the 

previous recommendation. 

7 

 
 
 
 
 
11 

15 

19 

23 

27 

31 

35 

39 

43 

47 

51 

55 

59 

63 

67 

71 

75 

78 

82 

86 

90 

94 

98 

102 

106 

110 

115 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1. 

2. 

3. 

4. 

5. 

6. 

7. 

8. 

9. 

Belgium 

 Bulgaria 

Czechia 

Denmark 

Germany 

Estonia 

Ireland 

Greece 

Spain 

10.  France 

11.  Croatia 

12. 

Italy 

13.  Cyprus 

14.  Latvia 

15.  Lithuania 

16.  Luxembourg 

17.  Hungary 

18.  Malta 

19.  The Netherlands 

20.  Austria 

21.  Poland 

22.  Portugal 

23.  Romania 

24.  Slovenia 

25.  Slovakia 

26.  Finland 

27.  Sweden 

9 

 
 
 
 
 
 
1. BELGIUM 

Table 1.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 1.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

10 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change1.01.10.7n.a.0.92HICP % change3.01.93.4n.a.2.63General government balance% GDP-5.2-4.9-5.2n.a.-5.44Primary balance% GDP-2.9-2.3-2.7n.a.-2.75General government gross debt% GDP107.9110.3110.5n.a.112.86 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP0.3n.a.0.8n.a.0.6of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP0.3n.a.0.9n.a.0.48- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP0.0n.a.-0.1n.a.0.2Variables20262027* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.20251Annual net expenditure % change3.6%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change3.6%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change3.7%2.0%2.0%n.a.2.9%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change3.7%5.9%5.8%n.a.8.8%Variables20262027Recommendation2.5%2.5%6.1%8.8% 
 
 
      
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
Table 1.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Belgium 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 1.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

11 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change1.01.10.7n.a.0.92Private consumption% change1.71.20.6n.a.1.13Government consumption % change1.61.10.6n.a.0.14Gross fixed capital formation% change0.12.81.1n.a.1.65Exports of goods and services% change-0.30.60.6n.a.1.96Imports of goods and services% change0.11.20.7n.a.1.9Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps1.31.60.8n.a.1.08- Change in inventoriespps0.00.00.0n.a.0.09- Net exportspps-0.3-0.4-0.1n.a.0.010Output gap% pot GDP-0.6-0.5-1.3n.a.-1.611Employment % change0.40.50.6n.a.0.712Unemployment rate%6.26.56.6n.a.6.513Labour productivity% change0.60.60.0n.a.0.214HICP % change3.01.93.4n.a.2.615GDP deflator% change2.62.22.2n.a.2.116Compensation of employees per head% change3.32.32.4n.a.2.217Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-2.4n.a.-2.8n.a.-2.7Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue49.049.449.2n.a.49.0of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.811.711.8n.a.11.83- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.16.516.716.6n.a.16.74- Social contributions15.215.115.3n.a.15.35- Other current revenue4.95.14.8n.a.4.76- Capital taxes0.70.70.6n.a.0.67- Other capital revenue0.00.20.0n.a.-0.18p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.10.100.05n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 54.254.454.4n.a.54.4of which:10- Compensation of employees 12.512.412.4n.a.12.311- Intermediate consumption4.34.44.4n.a.4.412- Interest expenditure2.22.62.4n.a.2.713- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind17.717.417.5n.a.17.414- Social transfers in kind via market producers8.08.18.0n.a.8.015- Subsidies3.53.33.4n.a.3.416- Other current expenditure1.92.12.1n.a.2.217- Gross fixed capital formation3.13.33.3n.a.3.318- Other capital expenditure1.00.90.9n.a.0.819p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed1.41.61.6n.a.1.821p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.40.50.4n.a.0.522=1-9General government balance-5.2-4.9-5.2n.a.-5.423=22+12Primary balance-2.9-2.3-2.7n.a.-2.724Cyclically adjusted balance-4.8n.a.-4.4n.a.-4.425=24-8+19Structural balance-4.9-4.7-4.4n.a.-4.426=25+12Structural primary balance-2.6-2.1-2.0n.a.-1.7Variables (% GDP)20262027 
     
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 1.5:  Debt developments 

Belgium 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 1.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

12 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)107.9110.3110.5n.a.112.82=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)3.92.42.6n.a.2.3Contributions*3Primary balance2.92.32.7n.a.2.74≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.3-0.9-0.6n.a.-0.6of which:5- Interest expenditure2.22.62.4n.a.2.76- Real growth effect-1.0-1.2-0.7n.a.-1.07- Inflation effect-2.6-2.3-2.3n.a.-2.38Stock-flow adjustment2.31.00.5n.a.0.3* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.20262027Variables2024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR335.1348.0359.3370.62Interest expenditurebn EUR13.514.316.118.43Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-0.070.51.00.84Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR1.61.52.11.05National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.60.50.60.66One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.10.10.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR11.68.310.39DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR-0.21.80.5bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change3.7%2.0%2.9%12Recommended maximum net expenditure% change3.6%2.5%2.5%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation *bn EUR0.4-1.81.414Cumulated deviation *bn EUR0.4-1.40.015=13/17Annual balance *% GDP0.1-0.30.216=14/17Cumulated balance *% GDP0.1-0.20.017p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR619.9642.0660.7681.2 202520262027OutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP0.91.41.61.82Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDP0.50.71.03Cumulated balance after flexibility*% GDP-0.5-0.9-1.0** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2021 as % of GDP.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. Variables11.96.59.9VariablesChange in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) B. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendation* A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate    (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).319.4331.1339.4349.87=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationReference level**10=8-9 
 
     
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 1.7:  RRF – Grants 

Belgium 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

13 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.10.10.10.10.10.22Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.20.00.00.10.20.33Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.10.00.14Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.15Capital transfers0.00.00.10.00.00.00.16=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.10.10.10.10.27Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
     
 
2. BULGARIA 

Table 2.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 2.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

14 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change3.12.62.5n.a.2.22HICP % change3.54.34.2n.a.2.63General government balance% GDP-3.5n.a.-4.1n.a.-4.34Primary balance% GDP-2.70.0-2.9n.a.-3.05General government gross debt% GDP29.9n.a.32.3n.a.35.56 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP-2.3n.a.-1.0n.a.1.6of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP-0.7n.a.-0.3n.a.0.38- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP-1.6n.a.-0.8n.a.1.3* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.Variables2026202720251Annual net expenditure % change6.2%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change6.2%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change12.3%n.a.5.5%n.a.4.1%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change12.3%6.2%18.5%n.a.23.4%16.3%Variables20262027Recommendation4.9%4.4%11.4% 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

 Bulgaria 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 2.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

15 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change3.12.62.5n.a.2.22Private consumption% change7.84.22.4n.a.2.23Government consumption % change7.01.42.9n.a.2.34Gross fixed capital formation% change11.43.32.1n.a.0.45Exports of goods and services% change-2.12.92.8n.a.3.16Imports of goods and services% change5.94.52.6n.a.2.4Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps8.03.42.4n.a.1.98- Change in inventoriespps-0.50.00.0n.a.0.09- Net exportspps-4.4-0.90.1n.a.0.310Output gap% pot GDP0.40.20.0n.a.-0.611Employment % change2.20.60.3n.a.0.212Unemployment rate%3.53.43.7n.a.3.913Labour productivity% change0.92.02.2n.a.2.014HICP % change3.54.34.2n.a.2.615GDP deflator% change7.45.21.9n.a.2.216Compensation of employees per head% change10.48.05.7n.a.4.317Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-1.5n.a.-2.1n.a.-3.0Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue38.1n.a.39.4n.a.38.2of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.4n.a.14.7n.a.14.73- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.6.5n.a.6.8n.a.6.74- Social contributions9.2n.a.9.6n.a.9.95- Other current revenue5.3n.a.4.7n.a.4.46- Capital taxes0.3n.a.0.3n.a.0.37- Other capital revenue2.5n.a.3.2n.a.2.18p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.5n.a.0.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 41.7n.a.43.5n.a.42.5of which:10- Compensation of employees 12.4n.a.13.1n.a.13.211- Intermediate consumption4.8n.a.4.7n.a.4.612- Interest expenditure0.8n.a.1.2n.a.1.313- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind12.9n.a.13.6n.a.13.914- Social transfers in kind via market producers2.4n.a.2.4n.a.2.315- Subsidies2.0n.a.2.0n.a.1.916- Other current expenditure1.2n.a.1.4n.a.1.017- Gross fixed capital formation4.5n.a.4.4n.a.4.018- Other capital expenditure0.7n.a.0.9n.a.0.419p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed1.9n.a.1.9n.a.2.221p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.5n.a.0.4n.a.0.722=1-9General government balance-3.5n.a.-4.1n.a.-4.323=22+12Primary balance-2.7n.a.-2.9n.a.-3.024Cyclically adjusted balance-3.7n.a.-4.1n.a.-4.125=24-8+19Structural balance-4.1n.a.-4.1n.a.-4.126=25+12Structural primary balance-3.3n.a.-2.9n.a.-2.9Variables (% GDP)20262027 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 2.5:  Debt developments 

 Bulgaria 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 2.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

16 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)29.9n.a.32.3n.a.35.52=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)6.0n.a.2.5n.a.3.2Contributions*3Primary balance2.70.02.9n.a.3.04≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.5n.a.-0.1n.a.-0.1of which:5- Interest expenditure0.8n.a.1.2n.a.1.36- Real growth effect-0.7n.a.-0.7n.a.-0.77- Inflation effect-1.6n.a.-0.6n.a.-0.78Stock-flow adjustment4.8n.a.-0.4n.a.0.2Variables* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.202620272024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR41.148.452.853.82Interest expenditurebn EUR0.51.01.41.63Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.00.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.72.63.72.25National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.20.30.40.56One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.50.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR5.42.82.19DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.60.30.2bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change12.3%5.5%4.1%12Recommended maximum net expenditure% change6.2%4.9%4.4%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation *bn EUR2.40.3-0.114Cumulated deviation *bn EUR2.42.72.515=13/17Annual balance*% GDP2.10.2-0.116=14/17Cumulated balance*% GDP2.12.22.017p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR104.8116.0121.2126.5202520262027OutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP1.31.91.92.22Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDP0.60.60.93Cumulated balance after flexibility*% GDP1.41.61.1** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2024 as % of GDPThe data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. * A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate    (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).39.044.547.349.47=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationReference level**10=8-9Variables4.82.52.0VariablesChange in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) B. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendation 
  
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 2.7:  RRF – Grants 

 Bulgaria 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

17 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.n.a.0.00.10.41.3n.a.2Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.1.60.00.01.6n.a.3Total current expendituren.a.n.a.0.00.00.10.2n.a.4Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.0.00.00.20.7n.a.5Capital transfersn.a.n.a.0.00.00.10.4n.a.6=4+5Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.0.00.10.31.2n.a.7Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.8Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.9Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3. CZECHIA 

Table 3.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 3.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

18 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change2.62.11.8n.a.2.42HICP % change2.32.22.7n.a.2.83General government balance% GDP-2.1-2.6-2.8n.a.-2.94Primary balance% GDP-0.8-1.2-1.5n.a.-1.65General government gross debt% GDP44.345.645.8n.a.47.26 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP-0.1n.a.-0.7n.a.0.6of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP0.2n.a.-0.7n.a.0.08- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP-0.3n.a.0.0n.a.0.6* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.Variables2026202720251Annual net expenditure % change4.5%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change10.1%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change4.9%5.5%6.4%n.a.4.3%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change6.0%13.7%12.7%n.a.17.5%15.8%Variables20262027Recommendation2.5%2.6%12.9% 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 3.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Czechia 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 3.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

19 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change2.62.11.8n.a.2.42Private consumption% change3.03.02.9n.a.2.73Government consumption % change2.11.71.4n.a.2.14Gross fixed capital formation% change2.43.63.1n.a.2.65Exports of goods and services% change3.93.02.1n.a.2.46Imports of goods and services% change5.04.53.0n.a.2.6Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps2.52.72.5n.a.2.48- Change in inventoriespps0.60.2-0.3n.a.0.09- Net exportspps-0.4-0.7-0.4n.a.0.010Output gap% pot GDP-0.5-0.4-0.4n.a.0.511Employment % change1.10.20.1n.a.0.012Unemployment rate%2.82.93.1n.a.3.213Labour productivity% change1.51.91.7n.a.2.414HICP % change2.32.22.7n.a.2.815GDP deflator% change3.52.92.7n.a.3.116Compensation of employees per head% change6.56.95.4n.a.4.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP3.4n.a.2.0n.a.2.1Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue41.040.340.4n.a.39.5of which:2- Taxes on production and imports10.810.410.8n.a.10.63- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.68.07.8n.a.7.84- Social contributions15.816.016.0n.a.15.85- Other current revenue5.05.04.9n.a.4.76- Capital taxes0.00.00.0n.a.0.07- Other capital revenue1.00.90.9n.a.0.68p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 43.242.943.2n.a.42.4of which:10- Compensation of employees 9.710.010.0n.a.10.011- Intermediate consumption5.85.65.6n.a.5.512- Interest expenditure1.31.41.3n.a.1.313- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind12.912.912.9n.a.12.714- Social transfers in kind via market producers3.53.43.5n.a.3.415- Subsidies2.02.02.0n.a.2.016- Other current expenditure2.32.22.2n.a.2.217- Gross fixed capital formation5.25.05.0n.a.4.718- Other capital expenditure0.60.40.5n.a.0.519p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.10.10.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed1.21.51.2n.a.1.321p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.30.50.4n.a.0.522=1-9General government balance-2.1-2.6-2.8n.a.-2.923=22+12Primary balance-0.8-1.2-1.5n.a.-1.624Cyclically adjusted balance-1.9n.a.-2.6n.a.-3.125=24-8+19Structural balance-1.8-2.4-2.6n.a.-3.126=25+12Structural primary balance-0.5-1.0-1.3n.a.-1.8Variables (% GDP)20262027 
  
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
Table 3.5:  Debt developments 

Czechia 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 3.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

20 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)44.345.645.8n.a.47.22=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)1.01.41.6n.a.1.3Contributions*3Primary balance0.81.21.5n.a.1.64≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.2-0.7-0.6n.a.-1.1of which:5- Interest expenditure1.31.41.3n.a.1.36- Real growth effect-1.1-0.9-0.8n.a.-1.17- Inflation effect-1.4-1.2-1.1n.a.-1.38Stock-flow adjustment1.30.90.7n.a.0.8Variables* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.2026202720232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn CZK3369.33481.03696.03862.34000.52Interest expenditurebn CZK98.5107.3111.5116.5123.03Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn CZK0.10.11.02.12.14Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn CZK81.479.1105.1109.060.05National co-financing of EU programmesbn CZK40.738.034.727.335.76One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn CZK0.00.010.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn CZK0.00.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn CZK107.8177.3173.7172.39DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn CZK76.617.2-44.318.5bn CZK11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change1.0%4.9%6.4%4.3%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change5.3%4.5%2.5%2.6%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation **bn CZK-135.613.5132.260.014Cumulated deviation **bn CZK-135.6-122.110.170.115=13/17Annual balance**% GDP-1.70.21.50.616=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP-1.7-1.40.10.717p.m. Nominal GDP  bn CZK7659.78058.28556.58941.69439.92024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP1.01.31.21.21.32Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDPn.a.0.30.30.33Cumulated balance after flexibility**% GDPn.a.-1.7-0.20.5* The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).*** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2021 as % of GDPThe data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. 3779.83148.63256.43433.73607.4A. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendation7=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn CZKReference level***Variables31.2160.1218.0153.8VariablesB. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendation10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM)  
 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
Table 3.7:  RRF – Grants 

Czechia 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

Table 3.8:  RRF – Loans 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

21 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.10.30.40.40.50.62Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.40.00.30.70.50.73Total current expenditure0.00.00.10.10.10.20.24Gross fixed capital formation0.10.10.10.10.20.20.45Capital transfers0.00.00.10.10.10.20.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.10.10.20.20.20.40.47Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.0.00.00.00.10.00.02Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.03Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.07Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Cashflow from RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
4. DENMARK 

Table 4.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 4.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

22 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change2.92.01.9n.a.1.82HICP % change1.81.11.8n.a.1.93General government balance% GDP2.90.50.9n.a.0.54Primary balance% GDP3.71.31.70.71.35General government gross debt% GDP27.927.627.0n.a.26.26 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP-1.6n.a.-1.6n.a.-0.1of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP-1.5n.a.-1.5n.a.-0.18- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP0.0n.a.-0.1n.a.0.0* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.Variables2026202720251Annual net expenditure % change5.0%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change12.6%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change7.3%7.9%6.7%n.a.4.5%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change10.9%19.7%18.3%n.a.23.6%23.5%Variables20262027Recommendation5.7%3.8%18.9% 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
Table 4.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Denmark 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 4.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

23 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change2.92.01.9n.a.1.82Private consumption% change2.32.11.9n.a.2.13Government consumption % change1.55.52.5n.a.1.44Gross fixed capital formation% change-3.55.82.2n.a.3.05Exports of goods and services% change3.03.12.6n.a.2.56Imports of goods and services% change-0.46.13.0n.a.3.1Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps0.53.61.9n.a.1.98- Change in inventoriespps0.0-0.10.0n.a.0.09- Net exportspps2.4-1.50.0n.a.-0.110Output gap% pot GDP-1.70.9-1.7n.a.-1.911Employment % change1.20.60.2n.a.0.512Unemployment rate*%6.42.86.5n.a.6.513Labour productivity% change1.71.31.7n.a.1.214HICP % change1.81.11.8n.a.1.915GDP deflator% change1.72.21.3n.a.2.216Compensation of employees per head% change3.33.33.3n.a.3.217Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP12.1n.a.11.0n.a.10.7* In APR column, national register-based unemployment rate.Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue50.949.650.3n.a.50.1of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.713.213.7n.a.13.83- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.30.830.330.2n.a.29.94- Social contributions0.70.70.7n.a.0.75- Other current revenue5.75.75.7n.a.5.76- Capital taxes0.30.20.3n.a.0.37- Other capital revenue-0.2-0.4-0.2n.a.-0.28p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 48.049.149.4n.a.49.6of which:10- Compensation of employees 14.414.314.8n.a.14.811- Intermediate consumption8.59.78.9n.a.9.012- Interest expenditure0.80.70.8n.a.0.813- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind14.314.614.6n.a.14.614- Social transfers in kind via market producers1.31.21.3n.a.1.315- Subsidies1.21.41.2n.a.1.216- Other current expenditure3.02.83.0n.a.3.017- Gross fixed capital formation3.43.63.8n.a.3.918- Other capital expenditure1.10.91.2n.a.1.219p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.00.20.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed2.2n.a.2.6n.a.2.821p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.3n.a.0.5n.a.0.622=1-9General government balance2.90.50.9n.a.0.523=22+12Primary balance3.71.31.70.71.324Cyclically adjusted balance3.9n.a.2.0n.a.1.625=24-8+19Structural balance*3.9-0.32.0n.a.1.626=25+12Structural primary balance*4.70.42.7n.a.2.4* In APR column, calculated according to national definition.Variables (% GDP)20262027 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 4.5:  Debt developments 

Denmark 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 4.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

24 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)27.927.627.0n.a.26.22=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-2.6-0.3-0.9n.a.-0.8Contributions*3Primary balance-3.7-1.3-1.7-0.7-1.34≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.5-0.4-0.1n.a.-0.3of which:5- Interest expenditure0.80.70.8n.a.0.86- Real growth effect-0.9-0.5-0.5n.a.-0.57- Inflation effect-0.5-0.6-0.3n.a.-0.68Stock-flow adjustment1.61.40.9n.a.0.8Variables* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.2026202720232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn DKK1321.41385.31469.91562.21631.72Interest expenditurebn DKK19.022.924.725.025.73Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn DKK2.39.511.713.214.34Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn DKK5.83.34.48.08.75National co-financing of EU programmesbn DKK0.50.20.10.20.26One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn DKK5.318.30.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn DKK0.00.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn DKK42.598.086.867.09DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn DKK-0.40.3-8.9-0.5bn DKK11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change3.3%7.3%6.7%4.5%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change7.2%5.0%5.7%3.8%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation **bn DKK-49.931.214.29.914Cumulated deviation **bn DKK-49.9-18.6-4.45.515=13/17Annual balance**% GDP-1.71.00.40.316=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP-1.7-0.6-0.10.217p.m. Nominal GDP  bn DKK2787.92926.93062.83161.63288.82024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP1.21.82.22.62.82Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDPn.a.1.01.41.53Cumulated balance after flexibility**% GDPn.a.-1.6-1.5-1.3* The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).*** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2021 as % of GDPThe data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. 1582.81288.51331.01429.01515.87=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn DKKA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationVariables42.997.895.767.510=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) B. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendationReference level***Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Denmark 

Table 4.7:  RRF – Grants 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

25 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.10.00.10.10.00.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.10.00.10.10.00.13Total current expenditure0.00.10.00.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.07Reduction in tax revenue0.00.10.10.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
 
   
 
5. GERMANY 

Table 5.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 5.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

26 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change0.21.00.6n.a.0.92HICP % change2.3n.a.2.9n.a.2.73General government balance% GDP-2.7-4¼-3.7n.a.-4.14Primary balance% GDP-1.6-3    -2.5n.a.-2.95General government gross debt% GDP63.566½65.8n.a.68.06 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP-0.1n.a.-1.3n.a.-0.5of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP-0.1n.a.-1.3n.a.-0.68- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP0.0n.a.-0.1n.a.0.1* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.Variables2026202720251Annual net expenditure % change4.4%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change4.4%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change3.8%5¼5.6%n.a.4.7%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change3.8%9¼9.7%n.a.14.8%11.5%Variables20262027Recommendation4.5%2.3%9.0% 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 5.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Germany 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 5.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

27 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.21.00.6n.a.0.92Private consumption% change1.60.80.6n.a.0.73Government consumption % change1.32.42.3n.a.1.54Gross fixed capital formation% change-0.23.01.8n.a.2.45Exports of goods and services% change-0.40.8-0.1n.a.0.96Imports of goods and services% change3.62.11.6n.a.1.6Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps1.11.51.2n.a.1.28- Change in inventoriespps0.70.00.0n.a.0.09- Net exportspps-1.5-0.5-0.6n.a.-0.310Output gap% pot GDP-1.7-1.7-1.5n.a.-1.011Employment % change0.00.0-0.1n.a.0.112Unemployment rate%3.83.64.0n.a.3.913Labour productivity% change0.31.10.7n.a.0.814HICP % change2.3n.a.2.9n.a.2.715GDP deflator% change3.02.52.5n.a.3.016Compensation of employees per head% change5.03.53.6n.a.3.517Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP3.8n.a.2.7n.a.2.4Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue47.947½48.3n.a.48.3of which:2- Taxes on production and imports10.310¼10.2n.a.10.23- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.12.812¾12.8n.a.12.84- Social contributions18.418½18.7n.a.18.85- Other current revenue5.85½5.9n.a.5.96- Capital taxes0.3¼0.4n.a.0.47- Other capital revenue0.2¼0.2n.a.0.28p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.000.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 50.551¾52.0n.a.52.4of which:10- Compensation of employees 8.68½8.7n.a.8.711- Intermediate consumption6.56½6.6n.a.6.712- Interest expenditure1.11¼1.2n.a.1.213- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind16.81717.1n.a.17.114- Social transfers in kind via market producers9.39½9.5n.a.9.515- Subsidies1.21¼1.3n.a.1.316- Other current expenditure2.12¼2.3n.a.2.317- Gross fixed capital formation3.33½3.5n.a.3.718- Other capital expenditure1.71¾1.8n.a.1.919p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.000.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed1.5n.a.1.9n.a.2.221p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.3n.a.0.4n.a.0.522=1-9General government balance-2.7-4¼-3.7n.a.-4.123=22+12Primary balance-1.6-3-2.5n.a.-2.924Cyclically adjusted balance-1.8n.a.-2.9n.a.-3.525=24-8+19Structural balance-1.8-3¼-2.9n.a.-3.526=25+12Structural primary balance-0.7-2-1.8n.a.-2.3Variables (% GDP)20262027 
 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
Table 5.5:  Debt developments 

Germany 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 5.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

28 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)63.566¼65.8n.a.68.02=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)1.332.4n.a.2.1Contributions*3Primary balance1.632.5n.a.2.94≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.8-1-0.7n.a.-1.3of which:5- Interest expenditure1.11¼1.2n.a.1.26- Real growth effect-0.1-¾-0.4n.a.-0.67- Inflation effect-1.8-1½-1.5n.a.-1.98Stock-flow adjustment0.610.5n.a.0.5Variables* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.202620272024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR2139.72259.32395.32507.62Interest expenditurebn EUR45.849.553.457.63Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.48.111.58.84Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR8.57.811.99.05National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR1.71.62.02.76One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.10.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR109.0124.2113.19DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR29.20.64.5bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change3.8%5.6%4.7%12Recommended maximum net expenditure% change4.4%4.5%2.3%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation *bn EUR-11.824.955.214Cumulated deviation *bn EUR-11.813.068.315=13/17Annual balance*% GDP-0.30.51.216=14/17Cumulated balance*% GDP-0.30.31.417p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR4329.04469.94606.34786.0202520262027OutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP1.11.51.92.22Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDP0.40.81.13Cumulated balance after flexibility*% GDP-0.7-0.50.3** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2021 as % of GDP.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. 2083.32192.32316.52429.57=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendation* A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate    (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).Reference level**Variables79.8123.6108.5Variables10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) B. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendation 
 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 5.7:  RRF – Grants 

Germany 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

29 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.20.10.10.10.10.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.10.00.10.30.00.23Total current expenditure0.00.10.00.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.10.10.10.10.10.16=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.10.10.10.10.10.17Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
  
 
6. ESTONIA 

Table 6.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 6.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

30 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change0.62.31.62.51.72HICP % change4.83.84.42.52.93General government balance% GDP-2.0-4.3-4.5-4.9-4.84Primary balance% GDP-1.5-3.7-3.9-4.1-4.05General government gross debt% GDP24.126.726.930.630.56 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP0.5n.a.-2.8n.a.0.3of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP1.2n.a.-3.0n.a.-0.48- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP-0.7n.a.0.3n.a.0.7* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.Variables2026202720251Annual net expenditure % change7.1%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change9.2%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change2.0%11.6%12.0%4.5%4.5%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change5.7%17.9%18.4%n.a.23.7%18.9%Variables20262027Recommendation5.1%3.6%14.8% 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
Table 6.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Estonia 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 6.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

31 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.62.31.62.51.72Private consumption% change-0.12.51.81.82.53Government consumption % change2.69.92.70.20.64Gross fixed capital formation% change3.210.17.41.92.65Exports of goods and services% change5.02.21.62.91.66Imports of goods and services% change5.05.83.62.32.1Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps1.26.13.31.52.18- Change in inventoriespps0.6-1.1-0.2-0.40.09- Net exportspps-0.1-3.1-1.50.3-0.410Output gap% pot GDP-2.7-0.3-1.4-0.4-0.211Employment % change-0.50.40.00.30.312Unemployment rate%7.56.77.16.46.813Labour productivity% change1.11.91.62.21.514HICP % change4.83.84.42.52.915GDP deflator% change3.83.63.52.73.216Compensation of employees per head% change4.45.34.94.94.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP1.2n.a.-0.9n.a.-1.0Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue43.442.442.341.241.3of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.014.714.614.414.43- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.9.98.88.58.68.34- Social contributions12.712.612.912.613.25- Other current revenue5.55.35.24.94.86- Capital taxes0.00.00.00.00.07- Other capital revenue1.21.01.10.60.68p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.10.00.00.00.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 45.446.846.946.146.1of which:10- Compensation of employees 12.312.412.512.112.211- Intermediate consumption6.46.76.86.86.812- Interest expenditure0.50.60.60.80.813- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind12.812.612.712.412.514- Social transfers in kind via market producers2.52.42.42.42.415- Subsidies0.60.80.80.80.816- Other current expenditure2.12.02.01.91.717- Gross fixed capital formation6.77.97.97.27.218- Other capital expenditure1.61.31.21.81.719p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.00.00.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed3.95.04.65.34.921p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed1.61.91.91.41.422=1-9General government balance-2.0-4.3-4.5-4.9-4.823=22+12Primary balance-1.5-3.7-3.9-4.1-4.024Cyclically adjusted balance-0.7n.a.-3.8n.a.-4.725=24-8+19Structural balance-0.8-4.2-3.8-4.8-4.726=25+12Structural primary balance-0.3-3.6-3.2-4.0-3.9Variables (% GDP)20262027 
 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 6.5:  Debt developments 

Estonia 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 6.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

32 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)24.126.726.930.630.52=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)0.62.62.83.93.6Contributions*3Primary balance1.53.73.94.14.04≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.5-0.7-0.5-0.5-0.5of which:5- Interest expenditure0.50.60.60.80.86- Real growth effect-0.1-0.5-0.4-0.6-0.47- Inflation effect-0.9-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.88Stock-flow adjustment-0.3-0.3-0.60.30.1Variables* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.2026202720232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR16.517.518.920.521.22Interest expenditurebn EUR0.10.20.20.30.43Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.00.00.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.70.50.90.80.55National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.10.10.10.10.16One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR0.91.11.70.99DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.40.8-0.50.0bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change3.7%2.0%12.0%4.5%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change1.9%7.1%5.1%3.6%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation **bn EUR0.3-0.91.20.214Cumulated deviation **bn EUR0.3-0.60.60.815=13/17Annual balance**% GDP0.7-2.02.80.416=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP0.7-1.41.51.817p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR38.439.841.643.846.02024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP2.03.73.94.64.92Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDPn.a.1.51.51.53Cumulated balance after flexibility**% GDPn.a.-2.90.00.3* The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).*** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2021 as % of GDP.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. 10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) B. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendation20.215.716.617.719.47=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationReference level***Variables0.60.32.10.9Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 6.7:  RRF – Grants 

Estonia 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

33 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.00.10.30.40.60.42Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.40.00.70.30.30.53Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.10.10.14Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.10.10.15Capital transfers0.00.00.00.20.20.40.36=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.10.30.30.50.47Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.30.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
7. IRELAND 

Table 7.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 7.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

34 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change12.33.1-1.23.53.42HICP % change2.13.33.52.52.63General government balance% GDP1.81.41.41.31.24Primary balance% GDP2.21.91.91.81.85General government gross debt% GDP32.931.232.430.331.66 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP-0.1n.a.0.2n.a.0.2of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP-0.1n.a.0.2n.a.0.28- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.1Variables20262027* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.20251Annual net expenditure % changen.a.2Cumulated net expenditure  % changen.a.OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change6.7%7.4%6.1%5.5%5.8%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change6.7%14.8%13.2%n.a.19.8%Variables20262027Recommendation6.6%6.0%16.5%23.5% 
 
 
      
 
 
 
 
      
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 7.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Ireland 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 7.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

35 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change12.33.1-1.23.53.42Private consumption% change2.92.02.22.32.33Government consumption % change3.93.04.82.93.94Gross fixed capital formation% change42.6-6.01.55.21.85Exports of goods and services% change9.74.9-0.14.03.76Imports of goods and services% change9.53.32.94.13.5Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps8.7-0.51.42.01.58- Change in inventoriespps-0.10.00.00.00.09- Net exportspps4.33.6-3.01.61.610Output gap% pot GDP4.81.9-0.31.4-0.611Employment % change2.01.61.61.41.412Unemployment rate%4.74.74.84.84.913Labour productivity% change10.11.5-2.82.12.014HICP % change2.13.33.52.52.615GDP deflator% change1.01.42.02.12.116Compensation of employees per head% change3.44.33.84.03.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP7.1n.a.6.8n.a.6.3Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue22.722.923.922.823.8of which:2- Taxes on production and imports5.95.76.05.65.93- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.11.411.612.211.612.24- Social contributions3.94.04.14.14.25- Other current revenue1.21.31.21.31.26- Capital taxes0.20.10.10.10.17- Other capital revenue0.20.20.20.20.18p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.00.00.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 21.021.522.521.622.6of which:10- Compensation of employees 5.75.96.15.86.111- Intermediate consumption3.33.53.63.63.712- Interest expenditure0.50.50.50.60.613- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind5.05.25.45.15.514- Social transfers in kind via market producers1.81.81.81.81.815- Subsidies0.60.50.60.50.616- Other current expenditure0.60.70.80.80.717- Gross fixed capital formation2.72.93.02.93.018- Other capital expenditure0.80.70.70.60.619p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.00.00.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed0.2n.a.0.2n.a.0.221p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.022=1-9General government balance1.81.41.41.31.223=22+12Primary balance2.21.91.91.81.824Cyclically adjusted balance-0.7n.a.1.6n.a.1.525=24-8+19Structural balance-0.7-2.61.6-2.51.526=25+12Structural primary balance-0.3-2.12.1-1.92.1Variables (% GDP)20262027 
      
 
 
 
 
      
 
 
Table 7.5:  Debt developments 

Ireland 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 7.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

36 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)32.931.232.430.331.62=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-5.4-1.7-0.5-0.9-0.8Contributions*3Primary balance-2.2-1.9-1.9-1.8-1.84≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-4.1-1.00.3-1.1-1.1of which:5- Interest expenditure0.50.50.50.60.66- Real growth effect-4.2-1.00.4-1.0-1.07- Inflation effect-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.78Stock-flow adjustment0.91.11.22.12.1* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.20262027Variables2024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR125.7133.8144.7153.42Interest expenditurebn EUR3.33.03.44.03Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-0.10.10.0-0.14Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.40.50.50.25National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.60.60.60.56One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR8.110.68.69DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR-0.12.80.5bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change6.7%6.1%5.8%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change9.3%6.6%6.0%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation **bn EUR-3.2-0.7-0.214Cumulated deviation **bn EUR-3.2-3.8-4.115=13/17Annual balance**% GDP-0.5-0.10.016=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP-0.5-0.6-0.617p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR562.8638.7643.6679.5** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. 8.27.98.2Assessment vis-à-vis Council Recommendation of 10 March 2026 endorsing the national medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Ireland.* The growth rate for 2025 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2024.10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) 121.6129.6140.3148.97=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURVariablesA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendation 
  
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
Table 7.7:  Assessment of compliance - previous recommendation 

Ireland 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 7.8:  RRF – Grants 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

37 

202320242025OutturnOutturnOutturn1Total expenditurebn EUR116.6125.7133.82Interest expenditurebn EUR3.43.33.03Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-0.2-0.10.14Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.60.40.55National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.50.60.66One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR9.38.19DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.7-0.1bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change7.7%6.7%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change9.8%5.1%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation**bn EUR-2.32.014Cumulated deviation**bn EUR-2.3-0.415=13/17Annual balance**% GDP-0.40.316=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP-0.4-0.117p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR524.7562.8638.7** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. Assessment vis-à-vis Council Recommendation of 21 January 2025 endorsing the national medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Ireland.* The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) 8.78.2A. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the previous recommendationVariables7=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR112.2121.6129.620202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.00.00.00.10.10.13Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.07Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
8. GREECE 

Table 8.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 8.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

38 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change2.12.01.8n.a.1.62HICP % change2.93.23.7n.a.2.43General government balance% GDP1.70.20.8n.a.0.64Primary balance% GDP4.93.24.0n.a.3.75General government gross debt% GDP146.1136.8140.7n.a.134.46 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP-0.8n.a.-2.8n.a.1.5of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP0.1n.a.-1.5n.a.0.18- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP-1.0n.a.-1.3n.a.1.3Variables20262027* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.20251Annual net expenditure % change3.7%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change6.5%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change3.0%7.5%7.3%n.a.2.9%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change2.8%10.6%10.4%n.a.13.6%Variables20262027Recommendation3.6%3.1%10.3%13.7% 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 8.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Greece 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 8.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

39 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change2.12.01.8n.a.1.62Private consumption% change2.01.51.6n.a.1.73Government consumption % change0.31.11.2n.a.0.24Gross fixed capital formation% change8.97.17.3n.a.1.35Exports of goods and services% change1.72.91.7n.a.3.16Imports of goods and services% change-1.34.43.3n.a.2.3Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps2.82.62.6n.a.1.48- Change in inventoriespps-2.10.30.0n.a.0.09- Net exportspps1.3-0.9-0.8n.a.0.210Output gap% pot GDP2.72.72.8n.a.2.711Employment % change0.80.60.8n.a.0.412Unemployment rate%8.98.48.3n.a.7.913Labour productivity% change1.21.31.0n.a.1.214HICP % change2.93.23.7n.a.2.415GDP deflator% change2.83.22.9n.a.2.716Compensation of employees per head% change3.53.73.6n.a.4.017Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-2.8n.a.-3.1n.a.-3.0Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue50.050.451.0n.a.48.8of which:2- Taxes on production and imports17.217.217.3n.a.16.63- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.11.110.810.8n.a.11.04- Social contributions13.112.813.1n.a.12.95- Other current revenue5.35.34.8n.a.4.86- Capital taxes0.10.10.1n.a.0.17- Other capital revenue3.34.24.8n.a.3.38p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 48.350.250.2n.a.48.2of which:10- Compensation of employees 10.210.110.2n.a.9.911- Intermediate consumption5.75.95.9n.a.5.612- Interest expenditure3.23.03.2n.a.3.213- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind16.416.816.6n.a.16.214- Social transfers in kind via market producers2.82.52.7n.a.2.615- Subsidies1.31.21.5n.a.1.416- Other current expenditure1.51.91.7n.a.1.617- Gross fixed capital formation4.86.64.8n.a.5.818- Other capital expenditure2.52.03.7n.a.1.919p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.20.00.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed2.42.62.6n.a.2.521p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.50.80.8n.a.0.822=1-9General government balance1.70.20.8n.a.0.623=22+12Primary balance4.93.24.0n.a.3.724Cyclically adjusted balance0.3n.a.-0.7n.a.-0.925=24-8+19Structural balance0.5-1.2-0.7n.a.-0.926=25+12Structural primary balance3.61.82.5n.a.2.3Variables (% GDP)20262027 
     
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 8.5:  Debt developments 

Greece 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 8.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

40 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)146.1136.8140.7n.a.134.42=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-8.0-9.3-5.5n.a.-6.3Contributions*3Primary balance-4.9-3.2-4.0n.a.-3.74≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-4.1-4.2-3.4n.a.-2.7of which:5- Interest expenditure3.23.03.2n.a.3.26- Real growth effect-3.0-2.7-2.5n.a.-2.27- Inflation effect-4.2-4.5-4.1n.a.-3.78Stock-flow adjustment0.9-1.82.0n.a.0.1* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.20262027Variables20232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR111.3113.9119.9130.6130.82Interest expenditurebn EUR7.68.27.88.48.53Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.30.10.0-0.1-0.24Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR5.75.98.412.08.85National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.70.70.80.91.46One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.30.40.40.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR1.93.96.92.89DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR2.01.0-0.6-0.4bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change-0.1%3.0%7.3%2.9%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change2.6%3.7%3.6%3.1%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation **bn EUR-2.6-0.73.8-0.214Cumulated deviation **bn EUR-2.6-3.30.50.315=13/17Annual balance**% GDP-1.1-0.31.5-0.116=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP-1.1-1.30.20.117p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR224.7236.7248.4260.1271.32024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP2.22.22.42.62.52Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDPn.a.0.20.40.33Cumulated balance after flexibility**% GDPn.a.-1.5-0.2-0.2* The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).*** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2024 as % of GDP.10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) B. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendationReference level***Variables-0.12.97.53.2112.196.698.5102.4109.37=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationVariables 
  
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
Table 8.7:  RRF – Grants 

Greece 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

Table 8.8:  RRF – Loans 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

41 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.20.40.71.01.72.92Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.1.30.81.50.51.42.43Total current expenditure0.00.10.00.20.20.30.34Gross fixed capital formation0.00.10.30.20.61.01.65Capital transfers0.00.00.10.30.20.41.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.10.40.50.81.42.67Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.0.90.91.71.00.72.42Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.03Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.07Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.10.40.71.11.5Cashflow from RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
     
 
 
 
 
     
 
9. SPAIN 

Table 9.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 9.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

42 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change2.82.22.4n.a.1.92HICP % change2.7n.a.3.0n.a.2.53General government balance% GDP-2.4-2.1-2.4n.a.-2.04Primary balance% GDP0.00.40.1n.a.0.55General government gross debt% GDP100.799.399.6n.a.98.96 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP0.1n.a.-0.3n.a.0.5of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP0.0n.a.-0.1n.a.0.18- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP0.1n.a.-0.2n.a.0.4* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.Variables2026202720251Annual net expenditure % change3.7%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change9.2%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change4.8%4.7%5.1%n.a.4.6%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change9.3%14.2%14.9%n.a.20.2%16.6%Variables20262027Recommendation3.5%3.2%13.0% 
 
 
      
 
 
 
 
 
      
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 9.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Spain 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 9.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

43 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change2.82.22.4n.a.1.92Private consumption% change3.42.42.9n.a.2.03Government consumption % change2.41.81.7n.a.1.84Gross fixed capital formation% change5.85.14.4n.a.2.85Exports of goods and services% change3.61.91.1n.a.2.36Imports of goods and services% change6.23.92.4n.a.2.8Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps3.52.82.8n.a.2.08- Change in inventoriespps0.00.10.0n.a.0.09- Net exportspps-0.7-0.6-0.4n.a.-0.110Output gap% pot GDP2.00.81.7n.a.1.211Employment % change2.72.12.3n.a.1.412Unemployment rate%10.59.99.9n.a.9.613Labour productivity% change0.10.10.1n.a.0.514HICP % change2.7n.a.3.0n.a.2.515GDP deflator% change2.93.12.6n.a.2.516Compensation of employees per head% change4.32.73.4n.a.2.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP4.0n.a.3.1n.a.3.0Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue42.942.643.4n.a.43.4of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.311.311.2n.a.11.33- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.13.113.713.6n.a.13.84- Social contributions13.313.413.4n.a.13.45- Other current revenue3.93.93.8n.a.3.66- Capital taxes0.40.30.4n.a.0.47- Other capital revenue1.1n.a.1.2n.a.1.08p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 45.344.745.8n.a.45.5of which:10- Compensation of employees 10.810.510.6n.a.10.711- Intermediate consumption5.75.65.7n.a.5.612- Interest expenditure2.42.52.5n.a.2.513- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind17.017.117.1n.a.17.214- Social transfers in kind via market producers2.62.62.6n.a.2.615- Subsidies1.21.31.3n.a.1.216- Other current expenditure1.71.51.7n.a.1.717- Gross fixed capital formation2.92.93.2n.a.3.018- Other capital expenditure1.1n.a.1.1n.a.0.919p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.40.60.6n.a.0.220p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed1.01.21.2n.a.1.421p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.3n.a.0.4n.a.0.522=1-9General government balance-2.4-2.1-2.4n.a.-2.023=22+12Primary balance0.00.40.1n.a.0.524Cyclically adjusted balance-3.6n.a.-3.5n.a.-2.725=24-8+19Structural balance-3.2-1.9-2.9n.a.-2.526=25+12Structural primary balance-0.80.5-0.4n.a.0.0Variables (% GDP)20262027 
      
 
 
 
 
      
 
 
Table 9.5:  Debt developments 

Spain 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 9.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

44 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)100.799.399.6n.a.98.92=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-1.0-1.4-1.0n.a.-0.7Contributions*3Primary balance0.0-0.4-0.1n.a.-0.54≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-3.2-2.7-2.4n.a.-1.8of which:5- Interest expenditure2.42.52.5n.a.2.56- Real growth effect-2.7-2.2-2.3n.a.-1.97- Inflation effect-2.9-3.0-2.6n.a.-2.58Stock-flow adjustment2.21.81.4n.a.1.6Variables* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.2026202720232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR680.2725.0764.9812.3842.52Interest expenditurebn EUR35.638.840.343.947.23Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-1.6-2.5-3.5-4.0-4.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR21.321.020.724.519.25National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR2.12.52.62.32.06One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR1.313.97.410.33.77bp.m. Correction for breaks in time series*bn EUR0.00.30.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR29.645.737.939.49DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR2.714.52.35.5bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change4.3%4.8%5.1%4.6%12Recommended maximum net expenditure**% change5.3%3.7%3.5%3.2%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation ***bn EUR-6.07.111.310.414Cumulated deviation ***bn EUR-6.01.112.422.815=13/17Annual balance***% GDP-0.40.40.60.616=14/17Cumulated balance***% GDP-0.40.10.71.217p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR1497.81594.31687.21772.91853.42024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP0.90.91.01.21.42Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDPn.a.0.10.30.53Cumulated balance after flexibility***% GDPn.a.-0.10.40.7** The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.*** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).**** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2024 as % of GDP.A. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationB. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendationOn 13 April 2026 Spain requested to activate the national escape clause allowing Spain to deviate from the recommended maximum growth rates of net expenditure. Table 6 (panel B) for Spainincludes calculation of the augmented control account, identifying deviations from the recommended net expenditure path under the national escape clause.* The change in net expenditure in 2025 has been corrected by EUR 287 m for a break in the series of total expenditure, related to the reclassification of Hisdesat Servicios Estratégicos into general   government from 2025 onwards.774.6621.6651.3697.3735.27=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURReference level****10=8-9Variables27.031.235.733.9VariablesChange in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM)  
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 9.7:  RRF – Grants 

Spain 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

Table 9.8:  RRF – Loans 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

45 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.20.40.70.70.8n.a.2Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.1.50.90.40.70.4n.a.3Total current expendituren.a.0.00.10.20.20.1n.a.4Gross fixed capital formationn.a.0.00.10.30.30.3n.a.5Capital transfersn.a.0.20.20.30.30.4n.a.6=4+5Total capital expendituren.a.0.20.30.50.60.7n.a.7Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.8Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.9Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.90.42Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Total current expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Capital transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6=4+5Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.8Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.9Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Cashflow from RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
      
 
 
 
10. FRANCE 

Table 10.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 10.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

46 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change0.80.9 **0.81.0 **1.12HICP % change0.92.12.4n.a.1.83General government balance% GDP-5.1-5.0-5.1n.a.-5.74Primary balance% GDP-2.9-2.5-2.5n.a.-2.95General government gross debt% GDP115.6118.4118.1n.a.120.26 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP0.9n.a.0.9n.a.-0.3of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP0.9n.a.0.8n.a.-0.48- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP0.0n.a.0.1n.a.0.0** Data in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.Variables2026202720251Annual net expenditure % change0.8%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change4.6%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change0.7%1.2%1.4%n.a.3.8%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change4.0%5.5%5.4%n.a.9.4%7.1%Variables20262027Recommendation1.2%1.2%5.8% 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 10.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

France 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 10.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

47 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.80.9 *0.81.0 *1.12Private consumption% change0.40.70.2n.a.0.73Government consumption % change1.61.31.5n.a.1.54Gross fixed capital formation% change0.50.50.5n.a.1.25Exports of goods and services% change1.32.50.7n.a.2.26Imports of goods and services% change2.90.90.1n.a.1.9Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps0.70.80.6n.a.1.08- Change in inventoriespps0.7-0.40.0n.a.0.09- Net exportspps-0.50.50.2n.a.0.110Output gap% pot GDP-0.6-0.5-0.9-0.7-0.811Employment % change0.10.0-0.1n.a.0.112Unemployment rate%7.7n.a.8.3n.a.8.713Labour productivity% change0.70.90.9n.a.1.114HICP % change0.92.12.4n.a.1.815GDP deflator% change1.21.31.8n.a.2.016Compensation of employees per head% change2.22.02.3n.a.2.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-0.1n.a.-0.2n.a.0.0* Data in seasonally and calendar-adjusted termsVariables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue52.152.352.3n.a.52.1of which:2- Taxes on production and imports15.715.915.9n.a.15.83- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.13.013.013.1n.a.13.24- Social contributions16.716.916.7n.a.16.65- Other current revenue5.95.85.9n.a.5.96- Capital taxes0.70.70.7n.a.0.77- Other capital revenue0.10.10.0n.a.0.08p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 57.257.357.4n.a.57.8of which:10- Compensation of employees 12.412.312.3n.a.12.311- Intermediate consumption5.45.65.4n.a.5.512- Interest expenditure2.22.62.6n.a.2.813- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind19.419.319.4n.a.19.414- Social transfers in kind via market producers6.46.36.4n.a.6.515- Subsidies1.91.91.9n.a.1.916- Other current expenditure3.63.73.7n.a.3.717- Gross fixed capital formation4.44.14.3n.a.4.318- Other capital expenditure1.61.51.5n.a.1.419p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.00.10.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed1.9n.a.2.1n.a.2.221p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.4n.a.0.4n.a.0.422=1-9General government balance-5.1-5.0-5.1n.a.-5.723=22+12Primary balance-2.9-2.5-2.5n.a.-2.924Cyclically adjusted balance-4.7n.a.-4.6n.a.-5.225=24-8+19Structural balance-4.7-4.7-4.6n.a.-5.226=25+12Structural primary balance-2.5-2.1-2.0n.a.-2.4Variables (% GDP)20262027 
     
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
Table 10.5:  Debt developments 

France 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 10.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

48 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)115.6118.4118.1n.a.120.22=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)2.92.82.5n.a.2.1Contributions*3Primary balance2.92.52.5n.a.2.94≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect0.00.1-0.3n.a.-0.7of which:5- Interest expenditure2.22.62.6n.a.2.86- Real growth effect-0.9-1.0-0.9n.a.-1.37- Inflation effect-1.3-1.5-2.0n.a.-2.28Stock-flow adjustment0.10.30.3n.a.0.0Variables* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.2026202720232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR1608.31672.71714.11764.41830.12Interest expenditurebn EUR53.460.166.679.388.23Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-2.2-0.82.06.810.44Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR12.310.410.27.46.45National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR3.42.92.43.53.66One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR2.01.50.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time series*bn EUR0.70.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR58.434.334.454.39DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR9.322.411.2-8.8bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change3.2%0.7%1.4%3.8%12Recommended maximum net expenditure**% change3.8%0.8%1.2%1.2%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation ***bn EUR-9.4-0.93.743.114Cumulated deviation ***bn EUR-9.4-10.3-6.636.515=13/17Annual balance***% GDP-0.30.00.11.416=14/17Cumulated balance***% GDP-0.3-0.3-0.21.217p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR2833.82935.22994.73071.93167.2** The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.*** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. 1721.61539.41598.61632.91667.37=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationVariables* The change in net expenditure in 2024 has been corrected by EUR 726 m for a break in the series of total expenditure, related to the reclassification of    AFPA (National agency for Adult Vocational Training) into general government from 2024 onwards.49.111.923.263.110=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM)  
     
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
Table 10.7:  RRF – Grants 

France 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

49 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.50.40.20.10.10.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.20.30.40.30.10.23Total current expenditure0.00.20.10.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.10.10.10.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.20.20.10.10.10.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.30.30.20.10.10.07Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
11. CROATIA 

Table 11.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 11.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

50 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change3.42.62.7n.a.2.52HICP*% change4.44.94.6n.a.2.73General government balance% GDP-3.0-2.9-2.9n.a.-2.74Primary balance% GDP-1.6-1.5-1.5n.a.-1.45General government gross debt% GDP56.354.855.9n.a.55.66 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance**% GDP-1.6n.a.0.3n.a.0.9of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP-1.2n.a.0.9n.a.0.68- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP-0.4n.a.-0.5n.a.0.3** A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.Variables20262027*  APR numbers reflect forecasts of inflation measured by the national consumer price index (CPI).20251Annual net expenditure % change6.4%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change26.2%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change10.9%5.6%5.7%n.a.5.0%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change30.1%37.7%37.5%n.a.44.4%37.8%32.3%Variables20262027Recommendation4.9%4.1% 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 11.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Croatia 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 11.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

51 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change3.42.62.7n.a.2.52Private consumption% change2.52.83.0n.a.2.83Government consumption % change4.13.33.2n.a.2.34Gross fixed capital formation% change6.13.33.0n.a.2.55Exports of goods and services% change0.90.92.1n.a.2.46Imports of goods and services% change2.82.32.9n.a.2.7Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps4.03.33.2n.a.2.88- Change in inventoriespps0.50.00.0n.a.0.09- Net exportspps-1.1-0.8-0.5n.a.-0.310Output gap% pot GDP1.5n.a.0.6n.a.-0.111Employment % change1.50.91.0n.a.0.712Unemployment rate%4.94.74.8n.a.4.813Labour productivity% change1.9n.a.1.6n.a.1.714HICP*% change4.44.94.6n.a.2.715GDP deflator% change4.75.84.7n.a.2.916Compensation of employees per head% change10.98.17.0n.a.5.217Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-0.5n.a.-1.0n.a.-1.1*  APR numbers reflect forecasts of inflation measured by the national consumer price index (CPI).Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue47.147.447.7n.a.47.7of which:2- Taxes on production and imports19.219.219.3n.a.19.43- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.97.98.0n.a.8.04- Social contributions12.212.312.4n.a.12.55- Other current revenue5.65.45.7n.a.5.66- Capital taxes0.00.00.0n.a.0.07- Other capital revenue2.22.62.3n.a.2.28p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 50.150.350.6n.a.50.4of which:10- Compensation of employees 13.613.413.5n.a.13.511- Intermediate consumption7.87.77.8n.a.8.012- Interest expenditure1.41.41.4n.a.1.313- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind13.613.914.0n.a.14.114- Social transfers in kind via market producers2.32.32.3n.a.2.315- Subsidies1.41.31.3n.a.1.216- Other current expenditure2.21.92.1n.a.2.117- Gross fixed capital formation6.06.36.4n.a.5.818- Other capital expenditure1.82.01.8n.a.1.919p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed1.51.61.6n.a.1.721p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.5n.a.0.5n.a.0.622=1-9General government balance-3.0-2.9-2.9n.a.-2.723=22+12Primary balance-1.6-1.5-1.5n.a.-1.424Cyclically adjusted balance-3.7n.a.-3.1n.a.-2.625=24-8+19Structural balance-3.7-3.4-3.1n.a.-2.626=25+12Structural primary balance-2.3-1.9-1.7n.a.-1.320262027Variables (% GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 11.5:  Debt developments 

Croatia 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 11.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

52 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)56.354.855.9n.a.55.62=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-1.0-1.5-0.4n.a.-0.4Contributions*3Primary balance1.61.51.5n.a.1.44≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-3.0-3.0-2.6n.a.-1.6of which:5- Interest expenditure1.41.41.4n.a.1.36- Real growth effect-1.8-1.3-1.4n.a.-1.37- Inflation effect-2.6-3.1-2.5n.a.-1.68Stock-flow adjustment0.30.00.7n.a.-0.2Variables* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.2026202720232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR36.941.646.550.653.12Interest expenditurebn EUR1.31.31.31.41.43Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.00.00.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR2.51.82.33.02.95National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.40.20.40.60.76One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR5.64.42.92.69DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR-0.10.20.50.3bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change17.4%10.9%5.7%5.0%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change18.6%6.4%4.9%4.1%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation **bn EUR-0.41.70.30.414Cumulated deviation **bn EUR-0.41.31.62.115=13/17Annual balance**% GDP-0.51.80.30.416=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP-0.51.41.62.017p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR79.285.993.0100.0105.42024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP1.01.41.51.61.72Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDPn.a.0.50.60.73Cumulated balance after flexibility**% GDPn.a.0.91.01.2* The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).*** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2021 as % of GDPThe data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. 10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) B. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendation48.232.738.342.645.67=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationReference level***Variables5.74.22.42.3Variables 
  
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 11.7:  RRF – Grants 

Croatia 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

Table 11.8:  RRF – Loans 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

53 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.00.30.71.01.71.72Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.1.42.10.90.91.11.03Total current expenditure0.00.00.10.10.30.30.34Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.30.30.90.95Capital transfers0.00.00.20.30.50.50.66=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.20.50.71.41.47Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.10.00.10.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.0.00.00.00.90.92.62Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.10.40.30.65Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.20.20.56=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.10.60.51.27Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.8Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.9Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Cashflow from RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
12. ITALY 

Table 12.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 12.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

54 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change0.50.60.50.60.62HICP % change1.72.93.22.01.83General government balance% GDP-3.1-2.9-2.9n.a.-2.94Primary balance% GDP0.81.21.20.01.35General government gross debt% GDP137.1138.6138.5n.a.139.26 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP0.3n.a.0.3n.a.0.5of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP0.4n.a.0.6n.a.0.38- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP-0.2n.a.-0.3n.a.0.2Variables20262027* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.20251Annual net expenditure % change1.3%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change-0.7%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change1.5%1.6%1.4%n.a.2.0%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change-0.6%1.5%0.8%n.a.2.8%Variables20262027Recommendation1.6%1.9%0.9%2.8% 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 12.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Italy 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 12.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

55 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.50.60.50.60.62Private consumption% change1.10.80.50.50.63Government consumption % change0.60.50.30.20.24Gross fixed capital formation% change3.51.91.70.90.75Exports of goods and services% change1.20.90.52.31.96Imports of goods and services% change3.62.31.42.41.8Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps1.51.00.70.50.68- Change in inventoriespps-0.20.10.10.00.09- Net exportspps-0.7-0.4-0.30.00.010Output gap% pot GDP0.80.40.50.30.411Employment % change1.10.50.20.50.212Unemployment rate%6.15.55.75.45.713Labour productivity% change-0.50.10.40.10.414HICP % change1.72.93.22.01.815GDP deflator% change2.01.81.92.02.016Compensation of employees per head% change3.02.62.72.62.717Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP1.4n.a.0.7n.a.0.8Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue48.148.348.4n.a.48.2of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.114.114.1n.a.14.23- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.15.315.115.3n.a.15.34- Social contributions13.513.613.6n.a.13.65- Other current revenue4.54.74.7n.a.4.56- Capital taxes0.10.10.1n.a.0.17- Other capital revenue0.60.70.6n.a.0.58p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.30.10.1n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 51.251.251.3n.a.51.2of which:10- Compensation of employees 9.09.09.0n.a.8.911- Intermediate consumption5.95.95.9n.a.5.912- Interest expenditure3.94.14.1n.a.4.213- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind20.320.420.4n.a.20.614- Social transfers in kind via market producers2.32.32.3n.a.2.315- Subsidies1.51.61.6n.a.1.616- Other current expenditure2.22.42.4n.a.2.317- Gross fixed capital formation3.83.83.8n.a.3.818- Other capital expenditure2.11.61.7n.a.1.419p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.20.20.2n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed*1.3n.a.1.2n.a.1.421p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.4n.a.0.4n.a.0.522=1-9General government balance-3.1-2.9-2.9n.a.-2.923=22+12Primary balance0.81.21.20.01.324Cyclically adjusted balance-3.5n.a.-3.2n.a.-3.125=24-8+19Structural balance-3.7-3.1-3.2n.a.-3.126=25+12Structural primary balance0.21.01.0n.a.1.1* In the case of Italy, this is total defence expenditureVariables (% GDP)20262027 
     
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 12.5:  Debt developments 

Italy 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 12.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

56 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)137.1138.6138.5n.a.139.22=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)2.41.51.4n.a.0.7Contributions*3Primary balance-0.8-1.2-1.20.0-1.34≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect0.50.80.8n.a.0.8of which:5- Interest expenditure3.94.14.1n.a.4.26- Real growth effect-0.7-0.8-0.7n.a.-0.87- Inflation effect-2.6-2.5-2.6n.a.-2.78Stock-flow adjustment2.61.81.8n.a.1.2* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.20262027Variables20232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR1149.11109.81155.31186.41214.22Interest expenditurebn EUR77.885.587.195.4100.33Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-1.3-4.0-5.2-5.8-5.64Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR25.19.513.220.515.45National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR3.03.25.86.07.86One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.90.94.13.50.97bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR-28.835.516.428.89DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR-7.219.91.67.6bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change-2.1%1.5%1.4%2.0%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change-1.9%1.3%1.6%1.9%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation **bn EUR-1.82.4-2.00.914Cumulated deviation **bn EUR-1.80.6-1.4-0.515=13/17Annual balance**% GDP-0.10.1-0.10.016=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP-0.10.0-0.10.017p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR2142.72202.02258.02314.02373.6* The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. 21.210=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) 1095.51043.71014.81050.31066.77=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationVariables-21.715.614.8 
     
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 12.7:  RRF – Grants 

Italy 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

Table 12.8:  RRF – Loans 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

57 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.20.60.80.30.60.62Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.51.00.60.20.30.83Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.20.20.24Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.10.10.20.25Capital transfers0.00.10.60.70.10.10.26=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.10.60.70.20.30.47Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.0.91.11.10.71.01.02Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.03Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.10.10.14Gross fixed capital formation0.10.10.20.30.50.60.85Capital transfers0.00.00.10.20.20.20.26=4+5Total capital expenditure0.10.20.30.50.70.81.07Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Cashflow from RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
13. CYPRUS 

Table 13.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 13.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

58 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change3.82.72.32.92.72HICP % change0.84.53.62.52.23General government balance% GDP3.42.32.12.82.54Primary balance% GDP4.53.73.34.13.75General government gross debt% GDP55.050.150.446.845.56 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP-1.8n.a.-0.4n.a.1.2of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP-1.6n.a.-0.1n.a.0.38- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP-0.1n.a.-0.3n.a.0.9Variables20262027* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.20251Annual net expenditure % change6.0%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change8.9%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change9.6%7.4%7.4%3.0%5.1%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change11.8%19.8%20.1%23.4%26.2%Variables20262027Recommendation5.0%5.4%14.3%20.5% 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 13.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Cyprus 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 13.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

59 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change3.82.72.32.92.72Private consumption% change3.31.52.02.12.63Government consumption % change2.02.52.51.12.04Gross fixed capital formation% change0.03.52.94.43.25Exports of goods and services% change5.00.91.22.03.16Imports of goods and services% change2.50.41.31.53.0Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps2.32.02.22.32.58- Change in inventoriespps-1.00.00.00.00.09- Net exportspps2.50.60.10.60.310Output gap% pot GDP2.92.11.61.71.311Employment % change1.71.41.31.51.112Unemployment rate%4.44.54.24.54.213Labour productivity% change2.11.30.91.31.714HICP % change0.84.53.62.52.215GDP deflator% change1.13.32.52.22.216Compensation of employees per head% change4.22.64.03.05.017Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-7.0n.a.-7.8n.a.-7.0Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue43.642.742.741.742.5of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.012.912.813.013.03- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.11.510.710.910.711.04- Social contributions13.413.313.413.213.45- Other current revenue4.74.94.54.04.56- Capital taxes0.00.00.00.00.07- Other capital revenue1.00.91.10.90.68p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.10.00.00.00.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 40.240.440.539.040.0of which:10- Compensation of employees 11.411.011.410.811.411- Intermediate consumption4.34.54.44.44.412- Interest expenditure1.11.31.21.31.213- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind12.212.312.212.412.214- Social transfers in kind via market producers3.33.33.53.33.515- Subsidies0.40.50.50.30.316- Other current expenditure2.62.72.82.52.917- Gross fixed capital formation3.33.53.53.43.518- Other capital expenditure1.51.31.10.70.619p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.00.00.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed1.81.71.82.42.421p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.60.60.71.41.222=1-9General government balance3.42.32.12.82.523=22+12Primary balance4.53.73.34.13.724Cyclically adjusted balance1.9n.a.1.3n.a.1.925=24-8+19Structural balance1.91.31.31.91.926=25+12Structural primary balance3.02.62.53.23.1Variables (% GDP)20262027 
     
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
Table 13.5:  Debt developments 

Cyprus 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 13.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

60 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)55.050.150.446.845.52=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-7.7-5.2-4.7-3.3-4.9Contributions*3Primary balance-4.5-3.7-3.3-4.1-3.74≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.8-1.8-1.3-1.1-1.2of which:5- Interest expenditure1.11.31.21.31.26- Real growth effect-2.3-1.4-1.2-1.4-1.37- Inflation effect-0.7-1.7-1.3-1.0-1.18Stock-flow adjustment-1.40.20.01.80.0* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.20262027Variables20232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR13.213.314.715.516.12Interest expenditurebn EUR0.40.40.40.50.53Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.00.00.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.30.30.30.50.25National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.10.10.20.10.16One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR0.11.30.70.89DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR-0.20.0-0.30.1bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change2.0%9.6%7.4%5.1%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change2.7%6.0%5.0%5.4%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation **bn EUR-0.10.50.30.014Cumulated deviation **bn EUR-0.10.40.70.715=13/17Annual balance**% GDP-0.31.30.9-0.116=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP-0.31.01.81.617p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR32.434.836.538.240.2* The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. 10=8-915.412.512.513.814.57=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationVariablesChange in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) 0.21.21.00.7 
     
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cyprus 

Table 13.7:  RRF – Grants 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

61 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.10.20.30.50.70.72Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.50.30.00.40.51.13Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.10.20.24Gross fixed capital formation0.10.10.10.10.20.30.35Capital transfers0.00.00.10.20.20.30.26=4+5Total capital expenditure0.10.10.20.30.40.50.77Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
14. LATVIA 

Table 14.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 14.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

62 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change2.12.61.4n.a.1.62HICP % change3.82.93.6n.a.2.23General government balance% GDP-2.5-3.0-3.3n.a.-4.34Primary balance% GDP-1.4-1.7-2.0n.a.-2.95General government gross debt% GDP46.947.948.8n.a.53.86 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP-1.1n.a.-1.5n.a.-0.1of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP-0.1n.a.-1.1n.a.-1.38- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP-1.1n.a.-0.5n.a.1.2Variables20262027* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.20251Annual net expenditure % change5.9%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change15.5%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change5.0%5.7%6.7%n.a.6.3%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change10.2%16.4%17.5%n.a.24.9%Variables20262027Recommendation3.6%3.4%19.7%23.8% 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 14.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Latvia 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 14.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

63 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change2.12.61.4n.a.1.62Private consumption% change0.82.91.6n.a.1.93Government consumption % change7.01.50.4n.a.0.34Gross fixed capital formation% change9.87.53.0n.a.3.05Exports of goods and services% change0.13.01.7n.a.1.96Imports of goods and services% change5.74.82.2n.a.2.3Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps4.13.81.7n.a.1.98- Change in inventoriespps1.80.30.1n.a.0.09- Net exportspps-3.8-1.4-0.4n.a.-0.310Output gap% pot GDP-0.1-1.00.3n.a.0.411Employment % change-0.50.0-0.4n.a.-0.312Unemployment rate%6.96.66.8n.a.6.713Labour productivity% change2.72.61.9n.a.1.914HICP % change3.82.93.6n.a.2.215GDP deflator% change3.63.33.1n.a.2.116Compensation of employees per head% change8.48.47.0n.a.5.817Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-3.7n.a.-4.3n.a.-5.8Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue43.642.144.4n.a.43.5of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.214.214.5n.a.14.63- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.58.48.3n.a.8.34- Social contributions11.911.812.2n.a.12.55- Other current revenue7.06.17.2n.a.6.66- Capital taxes0.00.00.0n.a.0.07- Other capital revenue1.91.52.2n.a.1.58p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 46.145.147.7n.a.47.8of which:10- Compensation of employees 13.112.813.1n.a.13.011- Intermediate consumption7.36.27.4n.a.7.312- Interest expenditure1.11.31.3n.a.1.413- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind12.613.212.9n.a.13.314- Social transfers in kind via market producers2.22.22.2n.a.2.215- Subsidies0.70.80.7n.a.0.716- Other current expenditure2.71.62.5n.a.2.417- Gross fixed capital formation6.36.57.2n.a.6.718- Other capital expenditure0.10.50.4n.a.0.719p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed3.24.14.1n.a.5.521p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed1.11.81.8n.a.2.222=1-9General government balance-2.5-3.0-3.3n.a.-4.323=22+12Primary balance-1.4-1.7-2.0n.a.-2.924Cyclically adjusted balance-2.5n.a.-3.4n.a.-4.525=24-8+19Structural balance-2.5-2.6-3.4n.a.-4.526=25+12Structural primary balance-1.4-1.3-2.1n.a.-3.1Variables (% GDP)20262027 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 14.5:  Debt developments 

Latvia 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 14.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

64 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)46.947.948.8n.a.53.82=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)0.61.11.9n.a.4.9Contributions*3Primary balance1.41.72.0n.a.2.94≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.4-1.4-0.7n.a.-0.3of which:5- Interest expenditure1.11.31.3n.a.1.46- Real growth effect-0.9-1.2-0.6n.a.-0.77- Inflation effect-1.6-1.5-1.4n.a.-1.08Stock-flow adjustment0.60.70.7n.a.2.4* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.20262027Variables20232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR17.218.419.821.522.32Interest expenditurebn EUR0.30.40.50.60.73Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.00.00.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.70.81.31.51.05National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.20.10.20.30.36One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR1.10.81.11.29DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.30.0-0.10.0bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change5.0%5.0%6.7%6.3%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change9.1%5.9%3.6%3.4%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation **bn EUR-0.7-0.20.60.514Cumulated deviation **bn EUR-0.7-0.8-0.30.315=13/17Annual balance**% GDP-1.6-0.41.21.216=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP-1.6-1.9-0.60.617p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR39.640.743.045.046.62024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP2.52.73.24.15.52Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDPn.a.0.71.51.53Cumulated balance after flexibility**% GDPn.a.-2.6-2.1-0.9* The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).*** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2021 as % of GDP.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. Reference level***Variables0.80.81.21.2Variables10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) B. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendation20.316.017.117.919.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendation 
  
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 14.7:  RRF – Grants 

Latvia 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

65 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.00.00.40.91.71.52Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.70.60.00.90.71.93Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.30.50.64Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.30.61.20.95Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.30.61.20.97Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
 
15. LITHUANIA 

Table 15.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 15.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

66 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change2.93.13.02.32.12HICP % change3.43.74.42.42.73General government balance% GDP-1.8-2.3-2.2-2.8-2.74Primary balance% GDP-0.9-1.2-1.1-1.5-1.55General government gross debt% GDP39.544.944.648.948.46 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP-1.4n.a.-1.0n.a.0.4of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP-1.3n.a.-0.4n.a.-0.48- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP-0.1n.a.-0.7n.a.0.8Variables20262027* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.20251Annual net expenditure % change6.1%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change6.1%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change10.5%7.0%7.2%7.0%7.0%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change10.5%18.9%18.4%n.a.26.8%Variables20262027Recommendation5.2%4.8%11.6%17.0% 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 15.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Lithuania 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 15.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

67 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change2.93.13.02.32.12Private consumption% change2.14.54.62.22.23Government consumption % change1.00.10.10.10.14Gross fixed capital formation% change8.05.75.84.54.55Exports of goods and services% change5.32.72.63.62.86Imports of goods and services% change9.33.74.13.63.2Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps3.23.83.92.32.38- Change in inventoriespps2.20.00.10.0-0.19- Net exportspps-2.4-0.6-1.00.1-0.210Output gap% pot GDP-0.9-0.4-0.1-0.5-0.111Employment % change-0.70.1-0.2-0.1-0.212Unemployment rate%6.96.86.76.96.713Labour productivity% change3.73.03.12.42.314HICP % change3.43.74.42.42.715GDP deflator% change3.63.43.42.63.316Compensation of employees per head% change10.07.87.46.26.217Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP3.1n.a.1.0n.a.1.4Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue39.440.540.440.640.3of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.912.012.012.012.03- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.10.711.311.211.911.84- Social contributions11.411.511.411.611.65- Other current revenue4.74.94.44.24.16- Capital taxes0.00.00.00.10.17- Other capital revenue0.80.91.40.80.78p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.1-0.10.00.00.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 41.242.842.643.443.0of which:10- Compensation of employees 12.112.212.211.911.911- Intermediate consumption4.44.74.64.74.612- Interest expenditure0.91.21.11.31.313- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind13.914.414.514.914.914- Social transfers in kind via market producers2.52.42.42.42.415- Subsidies0.30.20.30.20.216- Other current expenditure2.22.32.32.42.417- Gross fixed capital formation4.14.74.74.64.518- Other capital expenditure0.80.50.50.90.819p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.00.00.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed2.72.92.93.53.521p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed1.00.20.20.50.522=1-9General government balance-1.8-2.3-2.2-2.8-2.723=22+12Primary balance-0.9-1.2-1.1-1.5-1.524Cyclically adjusted balance-1.5n.a.-2.2n.a.-2.725=24-8+19Structural balance-1.6-2.1-2.2-2.6-2.726=25+12Structural primary balance-0.7-0.9-1.1-1.3-1.5Variables (% GDP)20262027 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 15.5:  Debt developments 

Lithuania 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 15.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

68 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)39.544.944.648.948.42=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)1.55.45.13.93.7Contributions*3Primary balance0.91.21.11.51.54≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.5-1.3-1.2-0.8-1.0of which:5- Interest expenditure0.91.21.11.31.36- Real growth effect-1.0-1.2-1.1-1.0-0.97- Inflation effect-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.1-1.48Stock-flow adjustment2.15.55.33.33.3* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.20262027Variables2024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR31.134.738.240.72Interest expenditurebn EUR0.60.81.01.23Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.10.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR1.01.11.81.15National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.10.20.20.26One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR3.32.52.99DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.30.20.5bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change10.5%7.2%7.0%12Recommended maximum net expenditure% change6.1%5.2%4.8%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation *bn EUR1.30.70.814Cumulated deviation *bn EUR1.31.92.715=13/17Annual balance*% GDP1.50.70.816=14/17Cumulated balance*% GDP1.52.22.917p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR79.084.389.794.5202520262027OutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP1.42.72.93.52Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDP1.21.51.53Cumulated balance after flexibility*% GDP0.30.71.4** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2021 as % of GDPThe data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. * A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate   (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).Reference level**Variables3.12.32.5Variables10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) B. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendation29.332.635.238.17=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendation 
  
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 15.7:  RRF – Grants 

Lithuania 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

Table 15.8:  RRF – Loans 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

69 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.00.10.30.50.80.82Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.50.00.80.20.01.43Total current expendituren.a.0.00.00.10.10.10.14Gross fixed capital formationn.a.0.00.10.20.40.70.75Capital transfersn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expendituren.a.0.00.10.20.40.70.77Reduction in tax revenuen.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactionsn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.0.10.80.00.92Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.03Total current expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.44Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.35Capital transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.37Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.09Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.0Cashflow from RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
16. LUXEMBOURG 

Table 16.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 16.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

70 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change0.61.71.6n.a.2.02HICP % change2.51.72.7n.a.1.83General government balance% GDP-2.0-0.4-1.2n.a.-1.54Primary balance% GDP-1.60.0-0.7n.a.-1.05General government gross debt% GDP26.527.129.2n.a.30.26 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP-1.7n.a.0.4n.a.-0.9of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP-1.7n.a.0.4n.a.-1.08- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP0.1n.a.0.0n.a.0.1* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.Variables2026202720251Annual net expenditure % change5.8%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change14.2%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change8.7%1.9%3.5%n.a.5.9%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change15.7%16.9%19.7%n.a.26.7%24.1%Variables20262027Recommendation4.7%3.8%19.6% 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 16.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Luxembourg 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 16.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

71 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.61.71.6n.a.2.02Private consumption% change2.31.81.5n.a.2.13Government consumption % change3.73.33.3n.a.3.14Gross fixed capital formation% change-0.55.7-1.7n.a.2.95Exports of goods and services% change1.21.42.0n.a.2.56Imports of goods and services% change1.81.92.0n.a.2.8Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps1.42.20.9n.a.1.88- Change in inventoriespps-0.10.00.0n.a.0.09- Net exportspps-0.6-0.40.7n.a.0.310Output gap% pot GDP-3.8-3.3-3.2n.a.-2.411Employment % change1.21.61.3n.a.1.512Unemployment rate%6.56.66.6n.a.6.513Labour productivity% change-0.50.10.4n.a.0.514HICP % change2.51.72.7n.a.1.815GDP deflator% change3.23.12.8n.a.2.316Compensation of employees per head% change4.43.13.4n.a.2.517Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-3.6n.a.-3.5n.a.-3.3Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue47.148.148.1n.a.48.6of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.611.711.6n.a.11.63- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.17.918.618.3n.a.18.74- Social contributions12.612.813.2n.a.13.35- Other current revenue4.74.64.8n.a.4.86- Capital taxes0.20.20.2n.a.0.17- Other capital revenue0.10.10.1n.a.0.18p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 49.148.549.4n.a.50.2of which:10- Compensation of employees 11.711.711.8n.a.11.911- Intermediate consumption4.74.64.8n.a.4.912- Interest expenditure0.30.50.5n.a.0.613- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind16.616.716.9n.a.17.214- Social transfers in kind via market producers3.43.43.6n.a.3.715- Subsidies1.21.21.2n.a.1.216- Other current expenditure4.13.93.9n.a.3.917- Gross fixed capital formation5.05.04.9n.a.4.918- Other capital expenditure2.11.61.8n.a.1.819p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed1.0n.a.1.2n.a.1.221p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.3n.a.0.3n.a.0.322=1-9General government balance-2.0-0.4-1.2n.a.-1.523=22+12Primary balance-1.60.0-0.7n.a.-1.024Cyclically adjusted balance-0.2n.a.0.3n.a.-0.525=24-8+19Structural balance-0.21.10.3n.a.-0.526=25+12Structural primary balance0.11.60.8n.a.0.1Variables (% GDP)20262027 
     
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
Table 16.5:  Debt developments 

Luxembourg 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 16.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

72 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)26.527.129.2n.a.30.22=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)0.20.72.7n.a.1.0Contributions*3Primary balance1.60.00.7n.a.1.04≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.6-0.8-0.6n.a.-0.6of which:5- Interest expenditure0.30.50.5n.a.0.66- Real growth effect-0.2-0.4-0.4n.a.-0.67- Inflation effect-0.8-0.8-0.7n.a.-0.68Stock-flow adjustment-0.81.52.6n.a.0.7Variables* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.2026202720232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR38.140.443.946.249.02Interest expenditurebn EUR0.20.30.30.50.63Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-0.10.10.10.10.14Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.10.20.10.10.15National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.00.10.10.10.16One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR2.03.52.12.79DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR-0.40.10.60.1bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change6.4%8.7%3.5%5.9%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change8.0%5.8%4.7%3.8%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation **bn EUR-0.61.2-0.50.914Cumulated deviation **bn EUR-0.60.50.01.015=13/17Annual balance**% GDP-0.71.3-0.61.016=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP-0.70.60.01.017p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR82.186.289.593.597.6* The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) 2.43.51.52.748.137.839.843.345.47=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationVariables10=8-9 
     
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 16.7:  RRF – Grants 

Luxembourg 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

73 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.00.00.00.00.10.22Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.00.00.00.00.10.23Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.10.00.16=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.10.00.17Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
17. HUNGARY 

Table 17.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 17.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

74 

2025OutturnAPR*COMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change0.5n.a.1.8n.a.2.12HICP % change4.4n.a.3.2n.a.3.13General government balance% GDP-4.7n.a.-6.2n.a.-5.84Primary balance% GDP-0.9n.a.-2.3n.a.-2.15General government gross debt% GDP74.6n.a.75.1n.a.76.86 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance**% GDP-0.4n.a.-1.7n.a.0.1of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP0.0n.a.-1.6n.a.0.28- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP-0.4n.a.-0.1n.a.0.0* Hungary has not yet submitted its Annual Progress Report (APR). Variables20262027** A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.20251Annual net expenditure % change4.3%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change9.1%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change8.1%n.a.9.7%n.a.3.7%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change11.2%n.a.22.0%n.a.26.5%17.9%Variables20262027Recommendation4.0%3.9%13.5% 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 17.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Hungary 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 17.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

75 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.5n.a.1.8n.a.2.12Private consumption% change3.1n.a.2.9n.a.1.93Government consumption % change2.4n.a.1.7n.a.0.44Gross fixed capital formation% change-2.8n.a.1.3n.a.3.95Exports of goods and services% change-1.1n.a.1.1n.a.3.56Imports of goods and services% change1.2n.a.1.7n.a.3.4Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps1.4n.a.2.2n.a.1.98- Change in inventoriespps0.8n.a.0.0n.a.0.09- Net exportspps-1.7n.a.-0.4n.a.0.210Output gap% pot GDP-1.3n.a.-0.6n.a.0.211Employment % change0.4n.a.-0.1n.a.0.112Unemployment rate%4.4n.a.4.5n.a.4.413Labour productivity% change0.1n.a.1.9n.a.1.914HICP % change4.4n.a.3.2n.a.3.115GDP deflator% change6.3n.a.3.9n.a.3.116Compensation of employees per head% change9.0n.a.9.3n.a.5.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP2.2n.a.0.6n.a.1.3Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue42.6n.a.42.5n.a.41.6of which:2- Taxes on production and imports17.2n.a.17.3n.a.16.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.5n.a.7.1n.a.6.84- Social contributions10.7n.a.11.0n.a.11.15- Other current revenue6.6n.a.6.2n.a.6.26- Capital taxes0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.07- Other capital revenue0.6n.a.1.0n.a.1.08p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 47.3n.a.48.7n.a.47.4of which:10- Compensation of employees 10.7n.a.11.4n.a.10.811- Intermediate consumption8.5n.a.8.8n.a.8.612- Interest expenditure3.8n.a.3.9n.a.3.713- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind10.9n.a.11.0n.a.10.914- Social transfers in kind via market producers1.2n.a.1.3n.a.1.215- Subsidies2.1n.a.2.1n.a.2.016- Other current expenditure4.4n.a.4.0n.a.4.117- Gross fixed capital formation3.8n.a.4.0n.a.4.118- Other capital expenditure2.0n.a.2.3n.a.2.119p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed1.8n.a.2.1n.a.2.021p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.6n.a.0.7n.a.0.722=1-9General government balance-4.7n.a.-6.2n.a.-5.823=22+12Primary balance-0.9n.a.-2.3n.a.-2.124Cyclically adjusted balance-4.1n.a.-5.9n.a.-5.925=24-8+19Structural balance-4.1n.a.-5.9n.a.-5.926=25+12Structural primary balance-0.3n.a.-2.0n.a.-2.2Variables (% GDP)20262027 
 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 17.5:  Debt developments 

Hungary 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 17.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

76 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)74.6n.a.75.1n.a.76.82=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)1.1n.a.0.5n.a.1.8Contributions*3Primary balance0.9n.a.2.3n.a.2.14≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.9n.a.-0.2n.a.0.0of which:5- Interest expenditure3.8n.a.3.9n.a.3.76- Real growth effect-0.4n.a.-1.3n.a.-1.57- Inflation effect-4.3n.a.-2.8n.a.-2.28Stock-flow adjustment1.1n.a.-1.6n.a.-0.2* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.20262027Variables2023202420252026OutturnOutturnOutturnCOM1Total expenditurebn HUF37415.938561.241141.444835.22Interest expenditurebn HUF3533.93970.63311.13579.33Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn HUF-49.3-41.9-46.7-41.44Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn HUF686.6597.9999.81168.15National co-financing of EU programmesbn HUF193.4193.8345.2344.16One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn HUF0.00.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn HUF0.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn HUF789.72691.13253.19DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn HUF-137.5-57.4-300.5bn HUF11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change2.8%8.1%9.7%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change4.6%4.3%4.0%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation **bn HUF-593.21293.42092.314Cumulated deviation **bn HUF-593.2700.22792.515=13/17Annual balance**% GDP-0.71.52.316=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP-0.70.83.017p.m. Nominal GDP  bn HUF75218.281493.587045.692055.4202420252026OutturnOutturnCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP1.02.01.82.12Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDPn.a.0.81.13Cumulated balance after flexibility**% GDPn.a.0.01.9* The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).*** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2021 as % of GDP.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. 10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) B. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendation33051.233840.936532.039785.17=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn HUFA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationReference level***Variables927.12748.53553.6Variables 
  
 
 
 
     
 
18. MALTA 

Table 18.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 18.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

77 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change4.03.73.7n.a.3.62HICP % change2.42.92.7n.a.2.33General government balance% GDP-2.2-1.6-2.2n.a.-2.14Primary balance% GDP-1.0-0.3-0.9n.a.-0.85General government gross debt% GDP46.445.846.2n.a.46.26 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP0.6n.a.0.1n.a.0.5of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP0.5n.a.0.5n.a.0.38- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP0.0n.a.-0.3n.a.0.2#Variables20262027* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.20251Annual net expenditure % change6.0%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change13.8%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change5.6%5.2%6.1%n.a.5.8%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change22.2%27.4%29.7%n.a.37.2%#Variables20262027Recommendation5.8%5.8%20.4%27.4% 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 18.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Malta 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 18.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

78 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change4.03.73.7n.a.3.62Private consumption% change3.36.43.3n.a.3.53Government consumption % change5.98.04.6n.a.3.94Gross fixed capital formation% change-0.19.02.0n.a.4.05Exports of goods and services% change4.56.23.4n.a.3.16Imports of goods and services% change4.47.13.0n.a.3.0Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps2.53.82.6n.a.3.08- Change in inventoriespps0.40.00.0n.a.0.09- Net exportspps1.0-0.11.1n.a.0.610Output gap% pot GDP-0.2-1.1-1.2n.a.-2.111Employment % change3.93.63.2n.a.3.112Unemployment rate%3.13.23.0n.a.3.113Labour productivity% change0.00.10.5n.a.0.514HICP % change2.42.92.7n.a.2.315GDP deflator% change2.22.32.3n.a.2.116Compensation of employees per head% change4.24.43.5n.a.2.117Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP9.3n.a.7.4n.a.7.1Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue34.834.634.4n.a.34.5of which:2- Taxes on production and imports9.69.99.5n.a.9.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.15.114.814.9n.a.15.24- Social contributions5.15.15.1n.a.5.15- Other current revenue4.13.63.8n.a.3.76- Capital taxes0.20.20.2n.a.0.27- Other capital revenue0.71.01.1n.a.0.98p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 37.036.236.6n.a.36.6of which:10- Compensation of employees 9.89.99.8n.a.9.811- Intermediate consumption8.38.28.2n.a.8.112- Interest expenditure1.21.31.3n.a.1.313- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind7.27.07.0n.a.7.014- Social transfers in kind via market producers0.90.90.9n.a.0.915- Subsidies2.12.12.4n.a.2.216- Other current expenditure2.72.62.6n.a.2.517- Gross fixed capital formation3.13.53.4n.a.3.618- Other capital expenditure1.80.81.2n.a.1.319p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.30.00.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed0.5n.a.0.5n.a.0.621p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.1n.a.0.1n.a.0.122=1-9General government balance-2.2-1.6-2.2n.a.-2.123=22+12Primary balance-1.0-0.3-0.9n.a.-0.824Cyclically adjusted balance-2.1n.a.-1.6n.a.-1.125=24-8+19Structural balance-1.8-1.1-1.6n.a.-1.126=25+12Structural primary balance-0.60.2-0.3n.a.0.2Variables (% GDP)20262027 
 
     
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 18.5:  Debt developments 

Malta 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 18.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

79 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)46.445.846.2n.a.46.22=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)0.5-0.6-0.1n.a.-0.1Contributions*3Primary balance1.00.30.9n.a.0.84≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.5-1.4-1.3n.a.-1.2of which:5- Interest expenditure1.21.31.3n.a.1.36- Real growth effect-1.7-1.7-1.6n.a.-1.67- Inflation effect-1.0-1.0-1.0n.a.-0.98Stock-flow adjustment0.90.40.3n.a.0.4* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.20262027Variables20232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR7.58.69.19.510.12Interest expenditurebn EUR0.20.30.30.30.43Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.00.00.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.20.20.20.30.25National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.10.00.10.10.26One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.10.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR1.10.30.30.59DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.0-0.1-0.20.0bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change15.7%5.6%6.1%5.8%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change7.4%6.0%5.8%5.8%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation **bn EUR0.60.00.00.014Cumulated deviation **bn EUR0.60.60.60.615=13/17Annual balance**% GDP2.5-0.10.10.016=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP2.52.32.22.117p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR20.923.124.626.127.6* The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. 0.50.50.59.37.08.28.58.87=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationVariables10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) 1.1 
  
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 18.7:  RRF – Grants 

Malta 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

80 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.20.00.30.30.20.32Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.20.00.30.30.20.33Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.10.10.10.10.15Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.10.10.26=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.10.20.20.20.37Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
     
 
 
 
 
19. THE NETHERLANDS 

Table 19.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 19.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

81 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change1.81.41.01.11.12HICP % change3.02.13.21.92.53General government balance% GDP-1.6-2.6-2.5-1.9-1.94Primary balance% GDP-0.9-1.7-1.8-0.9-1.15General government gross debt% GDP44.445.346.945.347.06 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP-0.8n.a.0.0n.a.0.2of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP-0.8n.a.0.0n.a.0.18- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.1Variables20262027* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.20251Annual net expenditure % changen.a.2Cumulated net expenditure  % changen.a.OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change7.2%4.7%4.9%3.5%3.7%4Cumulated net expenditure  % changen.a.18.9%4.9%n.a.8.8%Variables20262027Recommendation4.7%3.5%4.7%8.4%For the Netherlands, table 2 shows the net expenditure growth commitments put forward in the medium-term fiscal structural plan submitted on 14 April 2026, in view of the Commission’s positive assessment. 
 
 
      
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 19.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

The Netherlands 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 19.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

82 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change1.81.41.01.11.12Private consumption% change1.51.50.71.71.03Government consumption % change1.91.71.70.81.54Gross fixed capital formation% change1.11.20.51.51.35Exports of goods and services% change2.42.31.21.51.56Imports of goods and services% change2.42.51.22.01.6Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps1.41.50.81.41.18- Change in inventoriespps0.10.00.00.10.09- Net exportspps0.30.10.1-0.20.010Output gap% pot GDP-0.7-0.8-1.1-1.0-1.411Employment % change0.50.30.10.50.212Unemployment rate%3.94.14.24.34.413Labour productivity% change1.31.10.80.60.914HICP % change3.02.13.21.92.515GDP deflator% change3.32.93.22.52.516Compensation of employees per head% change4.74.73.84.13.617Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP7.3n.a.7.3n.a.7.0Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue43.343.343.544.144.3of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.111.111.311.111.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.14.615.015.015.315.64- Social contributions12.912.712.613.112.75- Other current revenue4.24.14.14.24.06- Capital taxes0.40.40.40.40.47- Other capital revenue0.10.00.10.00.18p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.00.00.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 44.945.946.046.046.2of which:10- Compensation of employees 8.88.78.88.88.711- Intermediate consumption6.66.66.66.66.712- Interest expenditure0.70.80.71.00.813- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind10.610.810.911.111.214- Social transfers in kind via market producers10.510.810.810.911.015- Subsidies1.31.41.41.51.416- Other current expenditure2.22.22.32.02.217- Gross fixed capital formation3.53.63.43.73.618- Other capital expenditure0.71.01.20.60.719p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.10.70.70.00.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed1.71.91.92.12.021p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.30.20.40.20.422=1-9General government balance-1.6-2.6-2.5-1.9-1.923=22+12Primary balance-0.9-1.7-1.8-0.9-1.124Cyclically adjusted balance-1.2n.a.-1.8n.a.-1.125=24-8+19Structural balance-1.1-1.4-1.1-1.3-1.126=25+12Structural primary balance-0.4-0.6-0.4-0.3-0.3Variables (% GDP)20262027 
 
      
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
Table 19.5:  Debt developments 

The Netherlands 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 19.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

83 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)44.445.346.945.347.02=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)0.60.72.60.00.0Contributions*3Primary balance0.91.71.80.91.14≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.4-1.0-1.1-0.6-0.8of which:5- Interest expenditure0.70.80.71.00.86- Real growth effect-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.5-0.57- Inflation effect-1.4-1.2-1.4-1.1-1.18Stock-flow adjustment1.20.01.8-0.3-0.3* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.20262027Variables202520262027OutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR529.0565.1588.22Interest expenditurebn EUR8.48.610.23Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR1.01.92.44Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR1.61.40.85National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.30.30.36One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.68.50.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR27.230.19DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR2.19.9bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change4.9%3.7%12Recommended maximum net expenditure% change4.7%3.5%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation *bn EUR0.81.214Cumulated deviation *bn EUR0.82.015=13/17Annual balance*% GDP0.10.116=14/17Cumulated balance*% GDP0.10.217p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR1179.51228.61272.9* A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. 10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) 25.120.3517.3544.4574.57=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURVariablesA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationAssessment vis-à-vis Commission recommendation for a Council recommendation enndorsing the medium-term fiscal structural plan submitted on 14 April 2026. 
  
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 19.7:  Assessment of compliance – previous recommendation 

The Netherlands 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 19.8:  RRF – Grants 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

84 

202320242025OutturnOutturnOutturn1Total expenditurebn EUR462.1496.7529.02Interest expenditurebn EUR7.17.98.43Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-0.70.11.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR2.31.91.65National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.40.90.36One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.05.00.67bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR28.036.39DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR2.21.7bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change5.7%7.2%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change6.9%3.5%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation**bn EUR-5.417.814Cumulated deviation**bn EUR-5.412.415=13/17Annual balance**% GDP-0.51.516=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP-0.51.017p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR1050.11121.51179.5** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. * The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.452.910=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) 25.834.6Assessment vis-à-vis Council Recommendation of 21 January 2025 setting the net expenditure path of the Netherlands.480.9517.3A. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the previous recommendationVariables7=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.00.00.00.10.10.22Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.00.00.00.10.10.03Total current expenditure0.00.10.10.10.10.10.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.07Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
20. AUSTRIA 

Table 20.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 20.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

85 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change0.60.90.6n.a.0.92HICP % change3.62.73.0n.a.2.53General government balance% GDP-4.2-4.2-4.1n.a.-4.14Primary balance% GDP-2.6-2.4-2.4n.a.-2.35General government gross debt% GDP81.583.483.4n.a.84.96 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP1.1n.a.0.4n.a.0.4of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP1.1n.a.0.5n.a.0.28- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP0.0n.a.-0.1n.a.0.1Variables20262027* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.20251Annual net expenditure % change2.6%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change2.6%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change2.0%2.2%2.1%n.a.3.3%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change2.0%4.4%4.1%n.a.7.5%Variables20262027Recommendation2.2%2.2%4.8%7.2% 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 20.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Austria 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 20.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

86 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.60.90.6n.a.0.92Private consumption% change0.50.50.5n.a.0.63Government consumption % change2.41.20.3n.a.0.24Gross fixed capital formation% change1.41.00.7n.a.1.85Exports of goods and services% change0.31.51.6n.a.2.16Imports of goods and services% change1.71.01.5n.a.2.0Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps1.10.80.5n.a.0.88- Change in inventoriespps0.2-0.20.0n.a.0.09- Net exportspps-0.70.30.1n.a.0.110Output gap% pot GDP-1.1-1.2-1.2n.a.-0.911Employment % change0.00.20.3n.a.0.612Unemployment rate%5.75.85.8n.a.5.613Labour productivity% change0.60.70.3n.a.0.314HICP % change3.62.73.0n.a.2.515GDP deflator% change3.22.22.1n.a.2.916Compensation of employees per head% change3.82.32.5n.a.2.717Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP0.9n.a.0.5n.a.1.1Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue51.051.051.3n.a.50.9of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.013.914.0n.a.14.03- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.13.914.014.0n.a.14.04- Social contributions16.216.216.2n.a.16.25- Other current revenue6.76.76.7n.a.6.66- Capital taxes0.00.00.0n.a.0.07- Other capital revenue0.20.20.2n.a.0.28p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 55.255.255.4n.a.55.0of which:10- Compensation of employees 11.511.311.4n.a.11.311- Intermediate consumption7.06.97.0n.a.7.012- Interest expenditure1.61.81.8n.a.1.913- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind20.020.220.2n.a.20.014- Social transfers in kind via market producers4.74.84.8n.a.4.915- Subsidies1.71.61.6n.a.1.516- Other current expenditure3.63.63.7n.a.3.717- Gross fixed capital formation3.94.14.1n.a.4.118- Other capital expenditure1.10.80.8n.a.0.819p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed0.70.90.9n.a.1.021p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.20.30.3n.a.0.422=1-9General government balance-4.2-4.2-4.1n.a.-4.123=22+12Primary balance-2.6-2.4-2.4n.a.-2.324Cyclically adjusted balance-3.6n.a.-3.5n.a.-3.625=24-8+19Structural balance-3.6-3.5-3.5n.a.-3.626=25+12Structural primary balance-2.0-1.7-1.7n.a.-1.8Variables (% GDP)20262027 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
Table 20.5:  Debt developments 

Austria 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 20.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

87 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)81.583.483.4n.a.84.92=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)1.61.91.9n.a.1.4Contributions*3Primary balance2.62.42.4n.a.2.34≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.3-0.6-0.4n.a.-1.2of which:5- Interest expenditure1.61.81.8n.a.1.96- Real growth effect-0.5-0.7-0.4n.a.-0.77- Inflation effect-2.4-1.7-1.7n.a.-2.38Stock-flow adjustment0.30.1-0.1n.a.0.3* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.20262027Variables2024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR273.2283.0291.7300.72Interest expenditurebn EUR7.38.39.310.13Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.00.60.80.74Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR1.00.81.30.55National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR1.01.11.11.26One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR8.37.18.89DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR2.91.5-0.3bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change2.0%2.1%3.3%12Recommended maximum net expenditure% change2.6%2.2%2.2%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation *bn EUR-1.5-0.43.014Cumulated deviation *bn EUR-1.5-1.91.115=13/17Annual balance*% GDP-0.3-0.10.616=14/17Cumulated balance*% GDP-0.3-0.40.217p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR494.1512.8526.5546.5202520262027OutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP0.60.70.91.02Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDP0.10.30.43Cumulated balance after flexibility*% GDP-0.4-0.7-0.2* A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2021 as % of GDPThe data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. Reference level**Variables5.35.69.2VariablesB. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendation10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) 263.9272.2279.3288.1A. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendation7=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 20.7:  RRF – Grants 

Austria 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

88 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.10.20.20.10.10.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.10.00.20.00.40.13Total current expenditure0.00.10.10.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.00.10.10.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.10.20.10.00.17Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.8Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.9Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
21. POLAND 

Table 21.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 21.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

89 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change3.63.63.5n.a.2.82HICP *% change3.32.53.6n.a.2.93General government balance% GDP-7.3-6.8-6.5n.a.-6.34Primary balance% GDP-4.7-4.1-3.7n.a.-3.35General government gross debt% GDP59.765.164.5n.a.68.36 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance **% GDP-1.3n.a.-0.3n.a.1.7of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP-1.0n.a.1.0n.a.0.38- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP-0.3n.a.-1.3n.a.1.3** A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.Variables20262027*  APR numbers reflect forecasts of inflation measured by the national consumer price index (CPI).20251Annual net expenditure % change6.3%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change19.6%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change8.5%3.6%4.0%n.a.4.9%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change22.9%27.2%27.9%n.a.34.1%29.9%24.9%Variables20262027Recommendation4.4%4.0% 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 21.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Poland 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 21.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

90 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change3.63.63.5n.a.2.82Private consumption% change3.73.73.3n.a.2.83Government consumption % change5.33.82.8n.a.1.74Gross fixed capital formation% change4.46.06.9n.a.4.85Exports of goods and services% change5.54.62.6n.a.2.86Imports of goods and services% change6.85.73.5n.a.3.2Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps4.04.03.7n.a.2.88- Change in inventoriespps0.10.00.1n.a.0.09- Net exportspps-0.4-0.4-0.3n.a.-0.110Output gap% pot GDP-0.20.40.1n.a.-0.111Employment % change0.1-0.90.2n.a.0.112Unemployment rate%3.13.13.1n.a.3.013Labour productivity**% change3.64.53.3n.a.2.614HICP* % change3.32.53.6n.a.2.915GDP deflator% change2.92.53.2n.a.2.916Compensation of employees per head**% change8.07.56.7n.a.6.017Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-1.0n.a.-1.4n.a.-1.4** In APR, domestic employment according to Labour Force Survey.*  APR numbers reflect forecasts of inflation measured by the national consumer price index (CPI).Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue43.645.145.3n.a.44.6of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.213.814.2n.a.14.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.08.48.5n.a.8.84- Social contributions15.415.515.4n.a.15.55- Other current revenue5.15.55.5n.a.5.16- Capital taxes0.00.00.0n.a.0.07- Other capital revenue0.91.91.7n.a.0.88p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 50.951.951.8n.a.50.9of which:10- Compensation of employees 12.012.011.9n.a.11.911- Intermediate consumption6.97.07.0n.a.6.712- Interest expenditure2.52.72.8n.a.2.913- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind17.317.517.4n.a.17.414- Social transfers in kind via market producers2.42.42.3n.a.2.315- Subsidies0.90.80.8n.a.0.816- Other current expenditure2.42.72.7n.a.2.217- Gross fixed capital formation5.25.35.3n.a.5.418- Other capital expenditure1.31.61.6n.a.1.219p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.10.00.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed3.43.43.4n.a.4.021p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed1.61.31.3n.a.2.022=1-9General government balance-7.3-6.8-6.5n.a.-6.323=22+12Primary balance-4.7-4.1-3.7n.a.-3.324Cyclically adjusted balance-7.1n.a.-6.6n.a.-6.225=24-8+19Structural balance-7.1-7.0-6.6n.a.-6.226=25+12Structural primary balance-4.6-4.3-3.8n.a.-3.320262027Variables (% GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 21.5:  Debt developments 

Poland 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 21.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

91 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)59.765.164.5n.a.68.32=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)4.85.44.8n.a.3.8Contributions*3Primary balance4.74.13.7n.a.3.34≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.9-0.8-1.0n.a.-0.6of which:5- Interest expenditure2.52.72.8n.a.2.96- Real growth effect-1.9-2.0-1.9n.a.-1.77- Inflation effect-1.5-1.4-1.8n.a.-1.88Stock-flow adjustment1.02.02.1n.a.1.0Variables* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.2026202720232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn PLN1600.41806.51989.92161.92247.02Interest expenditurebn PLN70.880.698.1116.8129.63Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn PLN-0.4-0.10.40.40.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn PLN46.034.047.9104.052.35National co-financing of EU programmesbn PLN14.09.213.316.022.36One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn PLN0.02.63.20.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn PLN0.00.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn PLN210.2146.997.8118.09DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn PLN14.54.424.224.1bn PLN11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change13.3%8.5%4.0%4.9%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change12.5%6.3%4.4%4.0%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation **bn PLN12.036.6-6.816.914Cumulated deviation **bn PLN12.048.641.858.715=13/17Annual balance**% GDP0.30.9-0.20.416=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP0.31.21.01.317p.m. Nominal GDP  bn PLN3415.33669.53912.74177.34416.72024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP1.62.93.43.44.02Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDPn.a.1.51.51.53Cumulated balance after flexibility**% GDPn.a.-0.3-0.5-0.2* The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).*** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2021 as % of GDPThe data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. 2042.91470.01680.21827.01924.97=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn PLNA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationVariables10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) B. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendationReference level***Variables195.7142.473.693.9 
  
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
Table 21.7:  RRF – Grants 

Poland 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

Table 21.8:  RRF – Loans 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

92 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.n.a.0.00.10.30.61.72Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.0.00.10.80.21.63Total current expendituren.a.n.a.0.00.10.20.20.64Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Capital transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6=4+5Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.0.00.00.10.41.17Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.8Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.9Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.n.a.0.00.61.00.41.22Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Total current expendituren.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.21.64Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Capital transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6=4+5Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.0.00.00.10.30.77Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.8Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.9Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Cashflow from RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
22. PORTUGAL 

Table 22.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 22.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

93 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change1.92.01.7n.a.1.82HICP % change2.22.53.0n.a.2.33General government balance% GDP0.70.0-0.1n.a.-0.44Primary balance% GDP2.62.01.9n.a.1.65General government gross debt% GDP89.787.587.6n.a.86.06 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP-0.1n.a.-1.6n.a.1.3of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP0.3n.a.-0.2n.a.-0.58- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP-0.4n.a.-1.4n.a.1.8* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.Variables2026202720251Annual net expenditure % change5.0%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change17.4%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change5.5%5.1%5.6%n.a.5.5%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change18.7%24.5%25.2%n.a.32.1%24.8%Variables20262027Recommendation5.1%1.2%23.4% 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 22.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Portugal 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 22.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

94 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change1.92.01.7n.a.1.82Private consumption% change3.51.81.9n.a.2.33Government consumption % change1.61.62.1n.a.1.14Gross fixed capital formation% change3.65.63.9n.a.1.65Exports of goods and services% change0.41.50.6n.a.2.26Imports of goods and services% change4.32.62.0n.a.2.5Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps3.22.52.3n.a.1.98- Change in inventoriespps0.4-0.10.0n.a.0.09- Net exportspps-1.7-0.5-0.6n.a.-0.110Output gap% pot GDP0.20.20.0n.a.0.011Employment % change2.31.21.1n.a.0.912Unemployment rate%6.06.05.9n.a.5.813Labour productivity% change-0.40.80.6n.a.0.914HICP % change2.22.53.0n.a.2.315GDP deflator% change3.92.52.8n.a.2.616Compensation of employees per head% change4.84.64.4n.a.3.717Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP2.5n.a.2.0n.a.1.5Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue43.445.444.6n.a.42.4of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.514.514.5n.a.14.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.10.09.810.0n.a.9.64- Social contributions12.612.812.7n.a.12.65- Other current revenue4.95.75.8n.a.4.86- Capital taxes0.00.00.0n.a.0.07- Other capital revenue1.22.61.8n.a.0.98p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 42.745.344.7n.a.42.8of which:10- Compensation of employees 10.610.710.8n.a.10.811- Intermediate consumption5.15.45.4n.a.5.112- Interest expenditure1.91.92.0n.a.2.113- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind16.116.316.2n.a.16.414- Social transfers in kind via market producers1.91.81.9n.a.1.915- Subsidies0.60.50.6n.a.0.616- Other current expenditure2.63.13.1n.a.2.517- Gross fixed capital formation3.04.44.3n.a.2.818- Other capital expenditure0.91.10.4n.a.0.619p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.10.40.3n.a.0.120p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed0.81.00.8n.a.0.821p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.20.30.2n.a.0.222=1-9General government balance0.70.0-0.1n.a.-0.423=22+12Primary balance2.62.01.9n.a.1.624Cyclically adjusted balance0.5n.a.-0.1n.a.-0.525=24-8+19Structural balance0.60.30.2n.a.-0.426=25+12Structural primary balance2.62.32.2n.a.1.7Variables (% GDP)20262027 
     
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 22.5:  Debt developments 

Portugal 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 22.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

95 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)89.787.587.6n.a.86.02=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-3.8-2.1-2.1n.a.-1.6Contributions*3Primary balance-2.6-2.0-1.9n.a.-1.64≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-3.2-1.9-1.9n.a.-1.7of which:5- Interest expenditure1.91.92.0n.a.2.16- Real growth effect-1.6-1.7-1.5n.a.-1.57- Inflation effect-3.5-2.2-2.5n.a.-2.28Stock-flow adjustment2.01.81.8n.a.1.7Variables* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.2026202720232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR113.6122.8130.9143.5143.52Interest expenditurebn EUR5.65.96.06.46.93Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.10.20.10.10.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR3.33.44.79.53.95National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.80.50.60.51.06One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR1.10.00.20.90.27bp.m. Correction for breaks in time series*bn EUR0.0-0.30.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR10.06.96.85.39DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR-2.70.60.1-1.6bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change12.5%5.5%5.6%5.5%12Recommended maximum net expenditure**% change11.8%5.0%5.1%1.2%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation ***bn EUR0.70.60.55.414Cumulated deviation ***bn EUR0.71.31.87.215=13/17Annual balance***% GDP0.20.20.21.616=14/17Cumulated balance***% GDP0.20.40.62.117p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR270.4289.8306.8320.8335.12024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP0.80.90.80.80.82Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDPn.a.0.00.00.03Cumulated balance after flexibility***% GDPn.a.0.40.62.1** The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.*** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).**** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2021 as % of GDPThe data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. * The change in net expenditure in 2024 and 2025 have been corrected by breaks in the series of total expenditure, related to the (i) reclassification of SATA Air Açores and  SATA Gestão de Aeródromos (SGA) into general government from 2024 onwards with a total expenditure impact of EUR 37.1 m and (ii) reclassification of Comboios de Portugal outside general government from 2025 onwards with a total expenditure impact of EUR 341 m.131.4102.7112.8119.3126.17=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationReference level****10=8-9Variables12.86.26.66.9VariablesChange in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) B. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendation 
   
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 22.7:  RRF – Grants 

Portugal 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

Table 22.8:  RRF – Loans 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

96 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.00.20.50.71.02.92Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.80.21.40.80.61.83Total current expenditure0.00.00.10.10.20.21.14Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.10.10.20.31.45Capital transfers0.00.00.00.20.30.50.56=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.10.40.50.81.87Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.0.20.20.30.40.20.72Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.03Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.10.10.25Capital transfers0.00.00.00.10.10.10.46=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.10.20.30.67Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.10.00.10.20.1Cashflow from RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
     
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
23. ROMANIA 

Table 23.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 23.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

97 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change0.70.90.12.22.32HICP % change6.86.57.03.23.73General government balance% GDP-7.9-6.0-6.2-5.2-5.84Primary balance% GDP-5.0-2.9-3.2-2.2-2.85General government gross debt% GDP59.361.861.663.363.46 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP2.2n.a.2.5n.a.0.7of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP3.5n.a.2.5n.a.-0.18- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP-1.3n.a.0.0n.a.0.8Variables20262027* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.20251Annual net expenditure % change2.8%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change2.8%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change0.5%-0.9%1.8%4.6%7.5%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change0.5%0.0%2.3%n.a.10.0%Variables20262027Recommendation2.6%4.6%5.5%10.4% 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 23.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Romania 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 23.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

98 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.70.90.12.22.32Private consumption% change0.5-0.8-1.92.62.83Government consumption % change-2.6-0.7-1.60.30.24Gross fixed capital formation% change3.44.04.11.92.35Exports of goods and services% change4.32.71.43.32.66Imports of goods and services% change4.91.2-0.12.92.3Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps0.70.4-0.42.22.38- Change in inventoriespps0.50.00.00.00.09- Net exportspps-0.50.50.60.00.010Output gap% pot GDP-1.4-2.3-2.5-1.6-1.711Employment % change-3.5-0.1-0.40.40.512Unemployment rate%6.16.16.35.85.913Labour productivity% change4.31.00.61.81.914HICP % change6.86.57.03.23.715GDP deflator% change8.25.87.44.54.816Compensation of employees per head% change8.25.14.96.46.217Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-6.0n.a.-4.8n.a.-4.2Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue35.436.936.735.136.1of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.211.911.911.911.93- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.6.36.16.46.26.54- Social contributions11.711.911.711.911.75- Other current revenue3.93.94.14.03.66- Capital taxes0.00.00.00.00.07- Other capital revenue2.43.22.51.22.58p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 43.343.042.940.341.9of which:10- Compensation of employees 10.59.810.09.810.011- Intermediate consumption5.65.85.55.85.512- Interest expenditure2.83.13.03.03.013- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind13.212.312.612.312.414- Social transfers in kind via market producers0.70.70.70.70.715- Subsidies0.50.50.50.40.516- Other current expenditure1.91.91.81.91.817- Gross fixed capital formation6.06.86.85.06.318- Other capital expenditure2.02.01.91.41.719p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.2n.a.0.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed1.51.81.7n.a.1.821p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.40.60.5n.a.0.622=1-9General government balance-7.9-6.0-6.2-5.2-5.823=22+12Primary balance-5.0-2.9-3.2-2.2-2.824Cyclically adjusted balance-7.4n.a.-5.4n.a.-5.325=24-8+19Structural balance-7.3-5.3-5.4-4.6-5.326=25+12Structural primary balance-4.4-2.2-2.4-1.6-2.2Variables (% GDP)20262027 
 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
Table 23.5:  Debt developments 

Romania 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 23.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

99 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)59.361.861.663.363.42=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)4.52.52.21.51.8Contributions*3Primary balance5.02.93.22.22.84≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.7n.a.-1.2n.a.-1.1of which:5- Interest expenditure2.83.13.03.03.06- Real growth effect-0.3n.a.-0.1n.a.-1.37- Inflation effect-4.26.5-4.13.2-2.88Stock-flow adjustment1.1n.a.0.2n.a.0.2* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.20262027Variables2024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn RON761.5830.4884.3927.62Interest expenditurebn RON42.854.562.167.13Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn RON-0.10.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn RON28.857.063.348.85National co-financing of EU programmesbn RON8.19.911.88.36One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn RON0.03.50.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn RON0.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn RON23.641.556.59DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn RON19.929.10.6bn RON11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change0.5%1.8%7.5%12Recommended maximum net expenditure% change2.8%2.6%4.6%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation *bn RON-15.4-5.921.514Cumulated deviation *bn RON-15.4-21.30.215=13/17Annual balance*% GDP-0.8-0.31.016=14/17Cumulated balance*% GDP-0.8-1.00.017p.m. Nominal GDP  bn RON1759.21916.42062.02211.6* A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. 3.712.455.910=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) 681.9705.4747.0803.57=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn RONA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationVariables 
 
  
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 23.7:  RRF - Grants 

Romania 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

Table 23.8:  RRF – Loans 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

100 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.0.60.60.10.2n.a.3Total current expendituren.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.5n.a.4Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.0.00.10.51.0n.a.5Capital transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6=4+5Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.8Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.9Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.0.01.00.30.00.20.92Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.03Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.10.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.20.50.40.65Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.20.50.40.67Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.8Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.0.10.00.10.00.09Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Cashflow from RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
24. SLOVENIA 

Table 24.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 24.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

101 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change1.12.01.92.02.32HICP % change2.52.53.52.22.53General government balance% GDP-2.5-3.4-3.3n.a.-3.54Primary balance% GDP-1.3-2.1-2.0n.a.-2.15General government gross debt% GDP65.765.264.9n.a.65.16 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP-1.6n.a.-1.3n.a.0.7of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP-1.3n.a.-0.7n.a.0.08- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP-0.3n.a.-0.6n.a.0.7* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.Variables2026202720251Annual net expenditure % change5.6%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change12.1%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change8.8%7.2%7.2%n.a.5.1%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change13.2%21.2%21.3%n.a.27.5%21.8%Variables20262027Recommendation4.4%4.1%17.0% 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 24.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Slovenia 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 24.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

102 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change1.12.01.92.02.32Private consumption% change1.72.82.12.52.83Government consumption % change1.63.54.42.31.84Gross fixed capital formation% change4.13.43.01.42.55Exports of goods and services% change0.32.31.63.02.16Imports of goods and services% change2.13.42.73.32.4Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps2.12.92.62.12.48- Change in inventoriespps0.3-0.20.00.00.09- Net exportspps-1.3-0.7-0.7-0.1-0.110Output gap% pot GDP1.20.40.90.11.011Employment % change-0.40.00.00.00.012Unemployment rate%3.93.83.83.83.813Labour productivity% change1.52.01.92.02.214HICP % change2.52.53.52.22.515GDP deflator% change3.53.13.62.72.916Compensation of employees per head% change7.95.66.55.45.617Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP3.7n.a.2.3n.a.2.3Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue47.147.647.3n.a.46.8of which:2- Taxes on production and imports12.712.612.5n.a.12.63- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.58.48.2n.a.8.34- Social contributions17.918.618.5n.a.18.55- Other current revenue7.26.56.7n.a.6.46- Capital taxes0.20.20.2n.a.0.27- Other capital revenue0.61.31.2n.a.0.78p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 49.651.050.6n.a.50.2of which:10- Compensation of employees 12.512.812.9n.a.13.211- Intermediate consumption6.87.57.2n.a.7.212- Interest expenditure1.31.31.3n.a.1.413- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind15.916.116.0n.a.16.114- Social transfers in kind via market producers3.13.33.2n.a.3.315- Subsidies1.11.21.1n.a.1.116- Other current expenditure2.42.32.3n.a.2.217- Gross fixed capital formation5.65.55.5n.a.5.118- Other capital expenditure1.01.01.0n.a.0.719p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.50.00.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed1.31.61.6n.a.1.821p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.30.30.3n.a.0.522=1-9General government balance-2.5-3.4-3.3n.a.-3.523=22+12Primary balance-1.3-2.1-2.0n.a.-2.124Cyclically adjusted balance-3.1n.a.-3.7n.a.-3.925=24-8+19Structural balance-2.6-3.6-3.7n.a.-3.926=25+12Structural primary balance-1.3-2.3-2.4n.a.-2.6Variables (% GDP)20262027 
     
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 24.5:  Debt developments 

Slovenia 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 24.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

103 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)65.765.264.9n.a.65.12=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-0.7-0.5-0.8n.a.0.2Contributions*3Primary balance1.32.12.0n.a.2.14≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.6-1.9-2.2n.a.-1.9of which:5- Interest expenditure1.31.31.3n.a.1.46- Real growth effect-0.7-1.3-1.2n.a.-1.47- Inflation effect-2.2-2.0-2.3n.a.-1.88Stock-flow adjustment-0.3-0.7-0.6n.a.0.0Variables* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.2026202720232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR29.831.335.037.739.42Interest expenditurebn EUR0.80.90.91.01.13Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.14Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.80.60.71.10.75National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.20.10.20.30.46One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.30.20.30.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time series*bn EUR0.00.50.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR1.92.82.41.99DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.80.20.10.1bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change4.0%8.8%7.2%5.1%12Recommended maximum net expenditure**% change6.2%5.6%4.4%4.1%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation ***bn EUR-0.61.00.90.414Cumulated deviation ***bn EUR-0.60.41.31.615=13/17Annual balance***% GDP-0.91.41.20.516=14/17Cumulated balance***% GDP-0.90.51.72.117p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR64.167.470.574.478.42024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP1.11.41.31.61.82Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDPn.a.0.20.50.73Cumulated balance after flexibility***% GDPn.a.0.31.21.4** The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.*** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).**** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2021 as % of GDP.* The change in net expenditure in 2025 has been corrected by EUR 535 m for a break in the series of total expenditure, related to the reclassification of the Velenje Coal Mine and    Sostanj Thermal Power Plant into general government from 2025 onwards.37.327.829.632.935.47=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationReference level****10=8-9Variables1.12.62.41.8VariablesChange in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) B. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendation 
  
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
Table 24.7:  RRF – Grants 

Slovenia 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

Table 24.8:  RRF – Loans 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

104 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.20.20.60.50.70.82Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.40.00.50.20.60.73Total current expendituren.a.0.00.00.10.10.20.34Gross fixed capital formationn.a.0.20.10.10.10.30.45Capital transfersn.a.0.00.00.10.10.20.26=4+5Total capital expendituren.a.0.20.10.20.20.50.57Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.8Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.9Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.0.50.20.10.02Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Total current expendituren.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formationn.a.0.00.00.10.20.20.25Capital transfersn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expendituren.a.0.00.00.10.20.20.27Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.8Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.9Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Cashflow from RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
     
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
25. SLOVAKIA 

Table 25.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 25.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

105 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change0.81.00.81.21.52HICP % change4.24.04.32.53.23General government balance% GDP-4.5-4.3-4.6n.a.-5.44Primary balance% GDP-2.9-2.7-3.0n.a.-3.65General government gross debt% GDP61.463.363.7n.a.66.96 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP1.1n.a.0.5n.a.1.1of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP1.8n.a.1.1n.a.-0.18- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP-0.7n.a.-0.6n.a.1.2Variables20262027* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.20251Annual net expenditure % change3.8%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change10.3%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change1.7%2.1%2.9%n.a.4.6%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change5.4%7.5%8.4%n.a.13.4%Variables20262027Recommendation0.9%1.6%11.2%13.0% 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 25.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Slovakia 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 25.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

106 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.81.00.81.21.52Private consumption% change0.21.8-0.12.01.23Government consumption % change1.11.20.60.50.14Gross fixed capital formation% change2.2-0.31.4-5.9-0.55Exports of goods and services% change4.03.91.24.03.76Imports of goods and services% change3.73.70.83.02.7Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps0.81.20.3-0.10.68- Change in inventoriespps-0.20.60.20.60.09- Net exportspps0.20.30.31.00.910Output gap% pot GDP-0.5-1.9-1.1-2.6-0.811Employment % change-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.1-0.212Unemployment rate%5.45.85.75.85.713Labour productivity% change0.91.41.31.31.814HICP % change4.24.04.32.53.215GDP deflator% change4.23.73.72.42.816Compensation of employees per head% change6.24.54.15.14.217Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP0.0n.a.-0.8n.a.-0.8Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue43.543.843.6n.a.42.0of which:2- Taxes on production and imports12.012.112.1n.a.11.73- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.28.28.1n.a.8.24- Social contributions16.416.016.3n.a.16.05- Other current revenue5.57.05.5n.a.5.36- Capital taxes0.00.00.0n.a.0.07- Other capital revenue1.50.51.6n.a.0.78p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.00.10.1n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 47.948.248.3n.a.47.4of which:10- Compensation of employees 11.711.311.7n.a.11.611- Intermediate consumption5.76.05.6n.a.5.312- Interest expenditure1.51.71.7n.a.1.813- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind16.315.415.4n.a.15.514- Social transfers in kind via market producers3.83.94.1n.a.4.115- Subsidies1.31.00.9n.a.0.616- Other current expenditure2.22.92.9n.a.3.317- Gross fixed capital formation4.54.84.9n.a.4.518- Other capital expenditure0.81.21.0n.a.0.819p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed2.01.81.9n.a.2.321p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.80.70.7n.a.1.222=1-9General government balance-4.5-4.3-4.6n.a.-5.423=22+12Primary balance-2.9-2.7-3.0n.a.-3.624Cyclically adjusted balance-4.3n.a.-4.2n.a.-5.125=24-8+19Structural balance-4.3-3.7-4.3n.a.-5.126=25+12Structural primary balance-2.7-2.0-2.6n.a.-3.3Variables (% GDP)20262027 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
Table 25.5:  Debt developments 

Slovakia 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 25.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

107 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)61.463.363.7n.a.66.92=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)1.71.92.3n.a.3.1Contributions*3Primary balance2.92.73.0n.a.3.64≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.3-1.1-1.0n.a.-0.8of which:5- Interest expenditure1.51.71.7n.a.1.86- Real growth effect-0.5-0.6-0.5n.a.-0.97- Inflation effect-2.4-2.2-2.2n.a.-1.78Stock-flow adjustment0.10.30.3n.a.0.3* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.20262027Variables20232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR59.861.865.669.070.72Interest expenditurebn EUR1.41.92.12.42.73Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.0-0.10.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR3.62.13.24.22.55National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.60.50.50.50.56One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR3.22.42.13.09DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR1.31.50.40.1bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change3.7%1.7%2.9%4.6%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change6.2%3.8%0.9%1.6%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation **bn EUR-1.4-1.21.21.914Cumulated deviation **bn EUR-1.4-2.6-1.40.515=13/17Annual balance**% GDP-1.1-0.90.81.316=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP-1.1-1.9-1.00.317p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR123.5130.2136.8143.0149.22024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP1.41.42.01.92.32Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDPn.a.0.60.60.93Cumulated balance after flexibility**% GDPn.a.-2.5-1.6-0.6* The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).*** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2021 as % of GDPThe data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. Reference level***Variables2.01.01.72.9VariablesB. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendation10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) 64.954.257.459.862.0A. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendation7=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
Table 25.7:  RRF – Grants 

Slovakia 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

108 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.00.00.10.71.42.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.80.41.20.60.41.73Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.20.30.64Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.10.20.90.75Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.20.20.86=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.10.41.11.57Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
26. FINLAND 

Table 26.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 26.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

109 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change0.20.60.81.71.42HICP % change1.82.62.41.41.93General government balance% GDP-3.4-4.6-4.5-4.6-4.64Primary balance% GDP-1.8-2.9-2.7-2.7-2.65General government gross debt% GDP88.591.291.292.893.16 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP1.5n.a.-0.7n.a.0.1of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP1.6n.a.-0.6n.a.-0.38- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP-0.1n.a.-0.1n.a.0.4Variables20262027* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.20251Annual net expenditure % changen.a.2Cumulated net expenditure  % changen.a.OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change-0.7%4.6%4.1%3.3%3.5%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change-0.7%3.9%3.3%n.a.6.9%Variables20262027Recommendation1.3%1.5%2.5%4.1% 
 
 
      
 
 
 
 
 
      
 
 
Table 26.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Finland 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 26.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

110 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.20.60.81.71.42Private consumption% change-0.20.70.61.41.23Government consumption % change-0.2-0.8-0.20.20.44Gross fixed capital formation% change0.87.35.54.52.05Exports of goods and services% change3.40.52.02.42.66Imports of goods and services% change1.73.34.02.72.2Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps0.01.81.51.81.28- Change in inventoriespps-0.30.00.20.00.09- Net exportspps0.7-1.1-0.8-0.10.210Output gap% pot GDP-2.6-2.5-2.3-1.5-1.611Employment % change-0.5-0.10.20.90.512Unemployment rate%9.79.810.19.49.813Labour productivity% change0.70.80.60.80.914HICP % change1.82.62.41.41.915GDP deflator% change1.52.62.32.12.016Compensation of employees per head% change2.63.82.73.32.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP1.5n.a.0.3n.a.0.4Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue54.153.854.052.953.3of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.114.414.313.914.13- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.16.015.715.815.615.64- Social contributions12.212.312.312.312.25- Other current revenue11.310.911.110.610.86- Capital taxes0.40.40.40.40.37- Other capital revenue0.10.10.20.10.18p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.00.00.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 57.558.458.557.557.9of which:10- Compensation of employees 13.613.613.613.513.711- Intermediate consumption11.511.311.411.111.312- Interest expenditure1.61.71.91.92.013- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind18.818.518.518.318.314- Social transfers in kind via market producers3.53.63.53.63.415- Subsidies1.11.21.11.11.116- Other current expenditure2.52.72.72.62.617- Gross fixed capital formation4.55.55.55.35.318- Other capital expenditure0.30.30.30.20.219p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.00.00.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed1.72.72.62.72.421p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.31.01.21.11.122=1-9General government balance-3.4-4.6-4.5-4.6-4.623=22+12Primary balance-1.8-2.9-2.7-2.7-2.624Cyclically adjusted balance-1.9n.a.-3.2n.a.-3.725=24-8+19Structural balance-1.9-3.1-3.2-3.7-3.726=25+12Structural primary balance-0.3-1.4-1.3-1.8-1.6Variables (% GDP)20262027 
 
      
 
 
 
 
      
 
 
Table 26.5:  Debt developments 

Finland 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 26.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

111 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)88.591.291.292.893.12=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)6.22.62.61.61.9Contributions*3Primary balance1.82.92.72.72.64≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect0.3-1.0-0.8-1.4-0.9of which:5- Interest expenditure1.61.71.91.92.06- Real growth effect-0.1-0.5-0.7-1.5-1.27- Inflation effect-1.2-2.2-2.0-1.9-1.88Stock-flow adjustment4.10.80.80.30.3* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.20262027Variables2024202520262027OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR159.4161.3169.3173.12Interest expenditurebn EUR4.34.65.46.13Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.30.81.00.84Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR1.51.82.21.05National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.60.60.70.56One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR0.96.74.69DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR2.00.5-0.9bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change-0.7%4.1%3.5%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change1.2%1.3%1.5%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation **bn EUR-2.94.23.114Cumulated deviation **bn EUR-2.91.34.515=13/17Annual balance**% GDP-1.01.51.116=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP-1.00.51.517p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR276.0280.6289.3299.2202520262027OutturnCOMCOM1Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP1.21.72.62.42Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDP0.51.41.33Cumulated balance after flexibility**% GDP-1.6-0.90.2*** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2021 as % of GDP.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. Reference level***Assessment vis-à-vis Council Recommendation with a view to bringing an end to the situation of an excessive deficit in Finland, adopted on 20 January 2026.* The growth rate for 2025 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2024.** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate (in panels B, taking into account the flexibility from the    national escape clause).Variables-1.16.25.5Variables10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) B. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the current recommendation152.6153.4160.2164.87=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EURA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendation 
      
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 26.7:  Assessment of compliance - previous recommendation 

Finland 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

112 

202320242025OutturnOutturnOutturn1Total expenditurebn EUR152.6159.4161.32Interest expenditurebn EUR3.24.34.63Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-0.10.30.84Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR1.01.51.85National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.70.60.66One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn EUR0.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR4.70.99DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn EUR-0.32.0bn EUR11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change3.3%-0.7%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change3.7%1.6%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation**bn EUR-0.5-3.514Cumulated deviation**bn EUR-0.5-4.115=13/17Annual balance**% GDP-0.2-1.316=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP-0.2-1.517p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR273.0276.0280.620242025OutturnOutturn1Rec. net expenditure growth after removing safeguards% changen.a.2.6%2Flexibility from removing the safeguards (cumulated)bn EURn.a.1.53Flexibility from removing the safeguards% GDPn.a.0.54Total defence expenditure (nationally financed)% GDP1.21.51.75Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure% GDPn.a.0.56Cumulated balance after flexibility**% GDPn.a.-2.5*** The reference level corresponds to nationally financed defence expenditure (COFOG02) in 2021 as % of GDP.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. * The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate (in panel B, taking into account the flexibility from the national escape clause).10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) 4.9-1.1VariablesReference level***B. Defence expenditure and the national escape clause vis-à-vis the previous recommendationAssessment vis-à-vis Council Recommendation of 21 January 2025 endorsing the national medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Finland.152.6153.4A. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the previous recommendationVariables7=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR147.9 
  
 
 
 
Table 26.8:  RRF – Grants 

Finland 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

113 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.00.10.10.10.20.22Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.00.10.00.10.20.33Total current expenditure0.00.00.10.10.10.10.14Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.16=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.17Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
      
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
27. SWEDEN 

Table 27.1:  Key macroeconomic and fiscal figures 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 27.2:  Net expenditure growth 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM), Annual Progress Report (APR) and latest relevant Council Recommendation 

114 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Real GDP% change1.52.81.8n.a.2.22HICP % change2.61.11.5n.a.1.83General government balance% GDP-1.3-2.6-2.8n.a.-2.54Primary balance% GDP-0.7-1.9-2.1n.a.-1.85General government gross debt% GDP35.136.336.6n.a.37.76 = 7 + 8Fiscal stance*% GDP0.3n.a.-1.9n.a.0.6of which contribution from:7- Net nationally financed primary expenditure% GDP0.3n.a.-1.9n.a.0.68- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)% GDP0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.0* A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance.Variables2026202720251Annual net expenditure % change4.0%2Cumulated net expenditure  % change10.7%OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM3Annual net expenditure % change2.2%7.9%6.5%n.a.2.0%4Cumulated net expenditure  % change8.2%17.1%15.3%n.a.17.6%20.6%Variables20262027Recommendation4.4%4.4%15.5% 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 27.3:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Sweden 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 27.4:  General government budgetary position 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

115 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change1.52.81.8n.a.2.22Private consumption% change1.63.12.1n.a.2.43Government consumption % change0.72.22.2n.a.1.24Gross fixed capital formation% change2.03.54.1n.a.2.15Exports of goods and services% change3.92.60.7n.a.2.26Imports of goods and services% change4.32.91.7n.a.2.0Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps1.42.92.6n.a.2.08- Change in inventoriespps0.2-0.1-0.3n.a.0.09- Net exportspps-0.10.0-0.5n.a.0.110Output gap% pot GDP-1.8-1.1-1.4n.a.-0.811Employment % change-0.10.90.6n.a.0.912Unemployment rate%8.88.48.5n.a.7.913Labour productivity% change1.71.91.2n.a.1.314HICP % change2.61.11.5n.a.1.815GDP deflator% change1.21.91.2n.a.1.716Compensation of employees per head% change1.73.93.4n.a.3.717Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP5.3n.a.4.3n.a.4.0Variables202620272025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1=sum(2-7)Revenue48.648.248.1n.a.47.5of which:2- Taxes on production and imports20.920.420.7n.a.20.93- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.17.417.617.3n.a.17.44- Social contributions3.43.43.4n.a.3.55- Other current revenue6.66.56.3n.a.5.56- Capital taxes0.00.00.0n.a.0.07- Other capital revenue0.30.30.4n.a.0.28p.m. One-off revenue (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.09=sum(10-18)Expenditure 49.950.850.8n.a.50.0of which:10- Compensation of employees 12.512.712.7n.a.12.611- Intermediate consumption8.48.48.4n.a.8.412- Interest expenditure0.60.70.6n.a.0.713- Social benefits other than Social transfers in kind11.711.411.5n.a.11.414- Social transfers in kind via market producers3.53.53.6n.a.3.515- Subsidies1.11.11.1n.a.1.216- Other current expenditure5.76.45.9n.a.5.717- Gross fixed capital formation5.96.16.2n.a.6.218- Other capital expenditure0.50.50.9n.a.0.419p.m. One-off expenditure (excluding EU funded)0.00.00.0n.a.0.020p.m. Total defence expenditure - nationally financed2.93.53.8n.a.3.921p.m. Defence investment - nationally financed0.80.90.9n.a.1.022=1-9General government balance-1.3-2.6-2.8n.a.-2.523=22+12Primary balance-0.7-1.9-2.1n.a.-1.824Cyclically adjusted balance-0.3n.a.-2.0n.a.-2.125=24-8+19Structural balance-0.3-1.9-2.0n.a.-2.126=25+12Structural primary balance0.3-1.3-1.3n.a.-1.4Variables (% GDP)20262027 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 27.5:  Debt developments 

Sweden 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast (COM) and Annual Progress Report (APR) 

Table 27.6:  Assessment of compliance 

Source: Commission Spring 2026 Forecast and Commission calculations 

116 

2025OutturnAPRCOMAPRCOM1Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)35.136.336.6n.a.37.72=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)0.91.21.5n.a.1.1Contributions*3Primary balance0.71.92.1n.a.1.84≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.3-0.9-0.4n.a.-0.7of which:5- Interest expenditure0.60.70.6n.a.0.76- Real growth effect-0.5-0.9-0.6n.a.-0.87- Inflation effect-0.4-0.7-0.4n.a.-0.68Stock-flow adjustment0.50.3-0.3n.a.0.0Variables* The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.2026202720232024202520262027OutturnOutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn SEK3072.33226.13276.03437.53515.72Interest expenditurebn SEK44.043.340.343.347.33Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn SEK6.412.015.513.28.94Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn SEK11.69.68.96.96.45National co-financing of EU programmesbn SEK1.61.31.47.07.06One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn SEK0.00.00.00.00.07bp.m. Correction for breaks in time seriesbn SEK0.00.00.00.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn SEK151.250.0157.279.19DRM excl. one-off revenue (incremental impact, excl. EU funded)bn SEK-25.9-19.7-53.011.5bn SEK11Outturn / forecast net expenditure % change5.9%2.2%6.5%2.0%12Recommended maximum net expenditure*% change6.4%4.0%4.4%4.4%13=(11-12) x 7(t-1)Annual deviation **bn SEK-15.4-56.769.0-80.514Cumulated deviation **bn SEK-15.4-72.2-3.2-83.715=13/17Annual balance**% GDP-0.2-0.91.0-1.116=14/17Cumulated balance**% GDP-0.2-1.10.0-1.217p.m. Nominal GDP  bn SEK6143.26391.66570.06763.77029.6* The growth rate for 2024 is not a recommendation but serves to anchor the base, as the latest year with outturn data when setting the net expenditure path was 2023.** A positive (negative) value indicates that net expenditure is above (below) the recommended maximum growth rate.The data for the outturn years reported in lines 15 and 16 correspond to control account deviations as referred to in Art. 22 of REGULATION (EU) 2024/1263. 10=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) 3446.13008.73159.93209.93367.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn SEKA. Net expenditure, annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the current recommendationVariables177.169.7210.267.6 
   
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 27.7:  RRF – Grants 

Sweden 

Source: Annual Progress Report 

117 

20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.10.10.10.10.00.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.00.00.00.00.30.33Total current expenditure0.00.10.10.10.10.00.14Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.10.10.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.10.10.00.00.07Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)