Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION endorsing the national medium-term fiscal-structural plan of the Netherlands
Date: 2026-06-03
Institutions: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission
Subjects: Netherlands, budget deficit, coordination of EMU policies, economic reform, fiscal policy, investment, macroeconomics, national planning, public debt, structural adjustment

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 3.6.2026  COM(2026) 301 final  Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION endorsing the national medium-term fiscal-structural plan of the Netherlands  
 
Recommendation for a 

COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION 

endorsing the national medium-term fiscal-structural plan of the Netherlands 

THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, 

Having  regard  to  the  Treaty  on  the  Functioning  of  the  European  Union,  and  in  particular 
Article 121 thereof, 

Having regard to Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, and in particular Article 17 thereof, 

Having regard to the recommendation from the Commission, 

Whereas: 

GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS 

(1) 

(2) 

The EU’s economic governance framework1 aims at promoting sound and sustainable 
public  finances  and  sustainable  and  inclusive  growth  and  resilience  through  reforms 
and  investments  and  preventing  excessive  government  deficits.  It  also  promotes 
national  ownership  and  has  a  greater  medium-term  focus,  combined  with  more 
effective and coherent enforcement of the rules.  

The  national  medium-term  fiscal-structural  plans  that  Member  States  submit  to  the 
Council  and  to  the  Commission  are  at  the  centre  of  the  new  economic  governance 
framework. The plans are to deliver on two objectives: i) ensuring that, inter alia, by 
the end of the adjustment period, general government debt is on a plausibly downward 
trajectory,  or  stays  at  prudent  levels,  and  that  the  government  deficit  is  brought  and 
maintained  below  the  reference  value  of  3%  of  GDP  over  the  medium  term,  and  ii) 
ensuring  the  delivery  of  reforms  and  investments  responding  to  the  main  challenges 
identified  in  the  context  of  the  European  Semester  and  addressing  the  common 
priorities of the EU. To that end, each plan is to present a medium-term commitment 
to  maximum  growth  rates  of  net  expenditure2,  which  effectively  establishes  a 
budgetary  constraint  for  the  duration  of  the  plan,  covering  four  or  five  years 
(depending on the regular term of legislature in a Member State). In addition, the plan 
is  to  explain  how  the  Member  State  will  ensure  the  delivery  of  reforms  and 

1 Regulation (EU) 2024/1263 of the  European Parliament and of the Council of 29 April 2024 on the effective 
coordination  of  economic  policies  and  on  multilateral  budgetary  surveillance  (OJ  L,  2024/1263,  30.4.2024, 
ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1263/oj), together with Council Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 of 7 July 
1997 on speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure (OJ L, 209, 2.8.1997, 
ELI:  http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/1997/1467/2024-04-30),  and  Council  Directive  2011/85/EU  of  8  November 
2011  on  requirements  for  budgetary  frameworks  of  the  Member  States  (OJ  L,  306,  23.11.2011,  ELI: 
http://data.europa.eu/eli/dir/2011/85/2024-04-30). 

2 Net expenditure as defined in Article 2 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, namely government expenditure net of 
(i)  interest  expenditure,  (ii)  discretionary  revenue  measures,  (iii)  expenditure  on  Union  programmes  fully 
matched by revenue from Union funds, (iv) national expenditure on co-financing of programmes funded by the 
Union,  (v)  cyclical  elements  of  unemployment  benefit  expenditure  and  (vi)  one-offs  and  other  temporary 
measures.  

EN 

1 

  EN 

 
investments  responding  to  the  main  challenges  identified  in  the  context  of  the 
European Semester, in  particular in  the country-specific recommendations (including 
those  pertaining  to  the  macroeconomic  imbalances  procedure  (MIP)),  and  how  the 
Member State intends addressing the common priorities of the Union. The period for 
fiscal adjustment covers four years, which may be extended by up to three years if the 
Member  State  commits  to  delivering  a  set  of  relevant  reforms  and  investments  that 
satisfies the criteria set out in Regulation (EU) 2024/1263. 

Following the submission of the plan, the Commission is to assess whether it complies 
with the requirements of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263. 

Upon  a  recommendation  from  the  Commission,  the  Council  is  to  then  adopt  a 
recommendation to set the maximum growth rates of net expenditure over the medium 
term  of  the  Member  State  concerned  and,  where  applicable,  to  endorse  the  set  of 
reform  and  investment  commitments  underpinning  an  extension  of  the  fiscal 
adjustment period. 

(3) 

(4) 

RELATED PROCESSES, INCLUDING THE PREVIOUSLY RECOMMENDED NET 
EXPENDITURE PATH 

(5) 

(6) 

(7) 

(8) 

On  21  January  2025  the  Council  adopted  a  recommendation  setting  the  net 
expenditure path of the Netherlands3. To assess compliance in 2025, the maximum net 
expenditure  growth  rate  established  by  the  Council  Recommendation  of  21  January 
2025 remains relevant.  

On  3  June  2026,  as  part  of  the  Spring  2026  European  Semester  package,  the 
Commission published its most recent assessment of the Netherlands’ compliance with 
the  maximum  growth  rates  of  net  expenditure.  Based  on  the  Commission’s 
calculations, the net expenditure growth rate of the Netherlands in 2025 was above the 
maximum growth rate recommended by the Council in January 2025, corresponding to 
a deviation of 1.5 % of GDP in annual terms. Considering 2024 and 2025 together, the 
cumulative growth rate of net expenditure was also above the recommended maximum 
cumulative growth rate, corresponding to a deviation of 1.0 % of GDP. 

On 8 July 2025, the Council addressed to the Netherlands a series of country-specific 
recommendations (CSRs) in the context of the European Semester4.  

On  3  June  2026,  as  part  of  the  Spring  2026  European  Semester  package,  and  under 
Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011, the Commission concluded that the Netherlands is no 
longer experiencing imbalances. In particular, vulnerabilities related to high levels of 

3 Council  Recommendation  of  21  January  2025  setting  the  net  expenditure  path  of  the  Netherlands,  OJ 

C/2025/648, 10.2.2025. 

4 Council  Recommendation  on  the  economic,  social,  employment,  structural  and  budgetary  policies  of  the 

Netherlands, OJ C/2025/3993, 20.8.2025, pg. 9. 

EN 

2 

  EN 

 
 
household debt, the housing market, and the large current account surplus have been 
present over the years but have lessened recently. 5. 

CONSIDERATIONS  CONCERNING  THE  NATIONAL  MEDIUM-TERM  FISCAL-
STRUCTURAL PLAN OF THE NETHERLANDS  

(9) 

According to Article 15(2) of Regulation 2024/1263, in the case of a newly appointed 
government, a Member State may submit a revised medium-term fiscal-structural plan. 
Following general elections in October 2025, a new government was established on 23 
February  2026.  On  14  April  2026,  the  Netherlands  submitted  a  revised  national 
medium-term fiscal-structural plan (henceforth ‘the plan’ or ‘the plan of April 2026’) 
to the Council and to the Commission. The plan covers a horizon of five years (2026-
2030)  instead  of  the  usual  four  years  in  view  of  the  government  formation  having 
taken place exceptionally in February 2026. As a result, the current government will 
be responsible for the preparation of five budgets instead of four.  

Process prior to the submission of the plan of April 2026  

(10)  Prior to  the submission of its plan, the Netherlands  requested technical  information6. 
The  Commission  provided  technical  information  ,  on  26  February  2026,  pursuant  to 
Article 15(4) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263,and published it on 21 April 20267. The 
technical information indicates the level of the structural primary balance in 2029 that 
is necessary to ensure that the general government deficit is maintained below 3% of 
GDP over the medium term and that the general government debt remains below 60% 
of GDP over the medium term, in the absence of further budgetary measures beyond 
the 4-year adjustment period. The medium term is defined as the ten-year period after 
the  end  of  the  adjustment  period.  The  technical  information  was  prepared  and 
transmitted to the Member State under two scenarios: a scenario including consistency 

5 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Central Bank, the 
European Economic and Social Committee, the Committee of the Regions and the European Investment Bank’, 
COM (2026)200 final. 

6 Prior  guidance  transmitted  to  the  Member  States  and  Economic  and  Financial  Committee  includes  technical 
information i) without and with an extension of the adjustment period (covering 4 and 7 years, respectively), 
and  ii)  with  and  without  the  deficit  resilience  safeguard.  It  also  includes  the  main  initial  conditions  and 
underlying assumptions used in the Commission’s medium-term government debt projection framework. The 
technical  information  was  calculated  on  the  basis  of  the  methodology  described  in  the  Commission’s  Debt 
Sustainability  Monitor  2023  (https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/debt-sustainability-monitor-
2023_en),  and  its  subsequent  refinements  agreed  at  the  DSA  Working  Group.  It  is  based  on  the  European 
Commission  Autumn  2025  Forecast  and  its  medium-term  extension  up  to  2035,  and  long-term  GDP  growth 
and  ageing  costs  are  in  line  with  the  joint  Commission-Council  2024  Ageing  Report  (https://economy-
finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/2024-ageing-report-economic-and-budgetary-projections-eu-member-states-
2022-2070_en). 

7 https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-surveillance-eu-member-states/country-

pages/netherlands/fiscal-surveillance-netherlands_en#medium-term-fiscal-structural-plans  

EN 

3 

  EN 

 
 
 
with  the  deficit  resilience  safeguard8,  in  line  with  Article  9(3)  of  Regulation  (EU) 
2024/1263, and a scenario without this safeguard. 

(11)  The technical information for the Netherlands sets out that, in order to comply with the 
applicable  fiscal  rules  over  an  adjustment  period  of  four  years,  and  based  on  the 
Commission’s  assumptions,  the  structural  primary  balance  should  amount  to  at  least 
0.1% of GDP at the end of the adjustment period (2029; scenario without the deficit 
resilience  safeguard),  as  per  Table  1.  For  information,  considering  also  the  deficit 
resilience safeguard, the structural primary balance should be the same, amounting to 
at least 0.1% of GDP at the end of the adjustment period (2029). However, the deficit 
resilience  safeguard,  which  applies  to  reference  trajectories,  is  not  a  requirement  for 
the Netherlands, which is eligible for only receiving technical information. 

Table 1: Technical information provided by the Commission to the Netherlands 

Final year of the adjustment period 

2029 

Minimum value of the structural primary balance (% of GDP), scenario without the 
deficit resilience safeguard 

0.1% 

For information only: Minimum value of the structural primary balance (% of GDP), 
scenario with the deficit resilience safeguard 

0.1% 

Source: Commission’s calculations. 

(12) 

In  line  with  Article  12  of  Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263,  the  Netherlands  and  the 
Commission  engaged  in  a  technical  dialogue  in  March  2026.  The  technical  dialogue 
centred on the maximum growth rates of net expenditure envisaged by the Netherlands 
and their underlying assumptions, in particular concerning the GDP deflator, as well as 
on  the  envisaged  delivery  of  reforms  and  investments  responding  to  the  main 
challenges  identified  in  the  context  of  the  European  Semester  and  the  common 
priorities  of  the  Union  of  a  fair  green  and  digital  transition,  social  and  economic 
resilience, energy security and the build-up of defence capabilities.  

(13) 

In April 2026, in line with Article 11(3) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, according to 
the information  provided by the Netherlands in  its plan,  the authorities  engaged in  a 
consultation process with social partners and the Advisory Division of the Council of 
State,  which  is  one  of  the  Dutch  independent  fiscal  institutions  charged  with 
monitoring compliance with budgetary rules.  

8 The  deficit  resilience  safeguard  established  in  Article  8  of  Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263  establishes  that  the 
annual improvement in the structural primary balance is of 0.4 percentage points (or 0.25 percentage points in 
case of an extension of the adjustment period) until the structural deficit is lower than 1.5% of GDP. 

EN 

4 

  EN 

 
 
 
(14)  The  Advisory  Division  of  the  Council  of  State  (CoS)  delivered  an  opinion  on  the 
macroeconomic  forecast  and  the  macroeconomic  assumptions  underpinning  the  net 
expenditure path in the plan. The CoS did not take a view on the overall plausibility of 
these  forecasts  and  assumptions  but  noted  that  they  differ  from  those  of  the 
Netherlands  Bureau  for  Economic  Policy  Analysis  (CPB),  which  are  to  underpin 
estimates  of  the  government  balance  and  debt  according  to  the  national  budgetary 
framework.  The  CoS  further  noted  that,  according  to  the  CPB’s  medium-term 
projections until 2039, the reference values for the government deficit and debt ratios 
would be exceeded by a small margin (deficit at 3.1% of GDP from 2034 and debt at 
62% of GDP in 2039), whereas this would not be the case according to the projections 
in  the  medium-term  plan.  The  CoS  indicated  that  the  main  reason  by  far  for  this 
difference relates to the fact that the CPB projections include an estimate of the impact 
of the announced policies in the coming years (including their impact after 2029 and 
until  2034),  whereas  the  Commission,  in  the  assessment  of  the  medium-term  plans, 
uses a no-policy change assumption after the adjustment period. 

(15)  The plan was submitted to the national parliament on 13 April 2026. 

SUMMARY  OF  THE  PLAN  AND  THE  COMMISSION’S  ASSESSMENT  OF 
THEREOF 

(16) 

In  line  with  Article  16  of  Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263,  the  Commission  assessed  the 
plan of April 2026 as follows: 

Context: macroeconomic and fiscal situation and outlook  

in 

the 

conflict 

uncertainties, exacerbated by 

(17)  Real GDP in the Netherlands grew by 1.8% in 2025 due to solid domestic demand and 
despite  global  uncertainties  affecting  trade.  According  to  the  European  Commission 
Spring  2026  Forecast,  the  economy  is  expected  to  grow  by  1.0%  in  2026,  as 
elevated global 
the  Middle 
East, are dampening consumption,  investment  and  trade.  In  2027,  real  GDP  is 
projected to increase by 1.1%, as the economy deals with the lingering effects of the 
conflict  in  the  Middle  East.  The  contribution  of  household  consumption  and 
investment  is  foreseen  to  be  limited,  while  imports  are  forecast  to  outgrow  exports, 
resulting in a negative net trade contribution to growth. Over the forecast horizon (i.e., 
2026-2027),  potential  GDP  growth  in  the  Netherlands  is  expected  to  continue  its 
downward  trend  from  2.0%  in  2023  to  1.3%  by  2027,  driven  primarily  by  lower 
growth of the working age population as well as a decreasing investment ratio.]. The 
unemployment  rate  stood  at  3.9%  in  2025  and  is  projected  by  the  Commission  to 
amount  to  4.2%  in  2026  and  4.4%  in  2027.  Inflation  (GDP  deflator)  is  projected  to 
decrease from 3.3% in 2025 to 3.2% in 2026, and to reach 2.5% in 2027. 

(18)  Regarding  fiscal  developments,  the  general  government  deficit  amounted  to  1.6%  of 
GDP  in  2025.  According  to  the  European  Commission  Spring  2026  Forecast,  it  is 
projected to reach 2.5% of GDP in 2026 and to decline to 1.9% of GDP in 2027. The 

EN 

5 

  EN 

 
 
European Commission Spring 2026 Forecast takes into account the Netherlands’s draft 
budget for 2026. The general government debt was 44.4% of GDP at the end of 2025. 
According  to  the  European  Commission  Spring  2026  Forecast,  the  debt  ratio  is 
expected  to  increase  to  46.9%  of  GDP  at  the  end  of  2026.  It  is  projected  to  broadly 
stabilise at 47.0% of GDP at end-2027. The fiscal forecasts by the Commission do not 
consider  the  policy  commitments  in  the  medium-term  fiscal-structural  plans  as  such 
until  they are underpinned by credibly announced and sufficiently specified concrete 
policy measures. 

Maximum growth rates of net expenditure and main macroeconomic assumptions in the 
plan of April 2026 

(19)  The plan covers the period 2026-2030 and presents a fiscal adjustment over four years.  

(20)  The  plan  contains  all  information  required  by  Article  13  of  Regulation  (EU) 

2024/1263.  

(21)  The plan commits to the maximum growth rates of net expenditure indicated in Table 
2  hereunder,  corresponding  to  average  annual  net  expenditure  growth  of  3.7%,  both 
over  the  adjustment  period  (2026-2029)  and  over  the  period  covered  by  the  plan 
(2026-2030).  The  technical  information  (assuming  a  linear  adjustment  path)  is 
consistent  with  average  net  expenditure  growth  of  3.3%,  both  over  the  adjustment 
period (2026-2029) and over the years 2026-2030.   

Table 2: Maximum net expenditure growth and main assumptions in the Netherlands’ 
plan  

2026 

2027 

2028 

2029 

2030  Average over 
the period of 
validity of 
the plan 

Average 
over the 
adjustment 
period 

2026-2030 

2026 – 2029 

4.7 

3.5 

3.1 

3.5 

3.7 

3.7 

3.7 

4.7 

8.4 

11.7 

15.6 

19.9 

n.a. 

n.a. 

1.4 

1.3 

1.2 

1.1 

1.1 

1.2. 

3.3 

2.5 

2.4 

2.4 

2.4 

2.6 

1.2 

2.6 

Net expenditure growth 
(annual, %) 

Net expenditure growth 
(cumulative, from base 
year 2025, %) 

Potential GDP growth 
(%) 

Inflation (GDP deflator 
growth) (%) 

Source:  Medium-term  fiscal-structural  plan  of  The  Netherlands  (April  2026)  and 

EN 

6 

  EN 

 
 
 
Commission calculations.  

(22)  The  net  expenditure  path  committed  to  in  the  plan  is  reported  to  lead  to  a  structural 
primary balance of 0.0% of GDP at the end of the adjustment period (2029). This is 
lower  than  the  minimum  level  of  the  structural  primary  balance  of  0.1%  of  GDP  in 
2029 provided by the Commission in the technical information on 26 February 20269. 
The plan assumes  potential GDP growth  to  decrease to  1.4%  in  2026 (from  1.7% in 
2025) and decreasing further to 1.1% in 2030. In addition, the plan expects the growth 
rate of the GDP deflator to decrease to 2.5% in 2027 (from 3.2% in 2025) and further 
decrease to 2.4% in 2030. 

Implications  of  the  plan’s  net  expenditure  commitments  for  the  general  government 
balance 

(23)  Based  on  the  plan’s  maximum  growth  rates  of  net  expenditure  and  assumptions,  the 
general  government  deficit  would  first  increase  in  2026  to  2.4%  of  GDP  and 
progressively  decrease  to  1.2%  of  GDP  at  the  end  of  the  adjustment  period.  Thus, 
according  to  the  plan,  the  general  government  balance  would  not  exceed  the  3%  of 
GDP reference value at the end of the adjustment period (2029). In addition, in the ten 
years following the adjustment period (i.e. until 2039), the government deficit would 
not exceed 3% of GDP.  

Therefore, based on the plan’s policy commitments and macroeconomic assumptions, 
the net expenditure path put forward in the plan is compatible with the requirement for 
the deficit as set out in 16(2) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263. 

Implications of the plan’s net expenditure commitments for general government debt  

(24) 

If  the  maximum  growth  rates  of  net  expenditure  committed  to  in  the  plan  and  the 
underlying assumptions materialise, general government debt would, according to the 
plan,  gradually  decrease  from  46.8%  in  2026  to  45.6%  of  GDP  at  the  end  of  the 
adjustment  period  (2029),  as  per  Table  3.  In  the  ten  years  following  the  adjustment 
period, general government debt is expected to remain on a downward path until 2032 
to  then  gradually  increase  to  51.2%  of  GDP  in  2039.  Thus,  according  to  the  plan, 
general government debt would stay below the Treaty reference value of 60% of GDP 
over the medium term.  

Therefore, based on the plan’s policy commitments and macroeconomic assumptions, 
the  maximum  growth  rates  of  net  expenditure  put  forward  in  the  plan  are  consistent 
with  the  requirement  for  debt  as  set  out  in  Article  16(2)  of  Regulation  (EU) 
2024/1263. 

Table 3: General government debt and balance developments in the Netherlands’ plan 

2026 

2027 

2028 

2029 

2030 

2039  

Government debt 

46.8 

46.5 

46.1 

45.6 

45.2 

51.2 

9 https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-surveillance-eu-member-states/country-

pages/netherlands/fiscal-surveillance-netherlands_en#medium-term-fiscal-structural-plans  

EN 

7 

  EN 

 
 
(% of GDP) 
Government balance 
(% of GDP) 

-2.4 

-1.5 

-1.3 

-1.2 

-1.2 

-3.0 

Source: Medium-term fiscal-structural plan of the Netherlands (April 2026) 

Macroeconomic assumptions of the plan 

(25)  The  plan  is  based  on  a  set  of  assumptions  which  differs  from  the  Commission’s 
assumptions,  which  were  transmitted  to  the  Netherlands  on  26  February  2026.  In 
particular,  the  plan  uses  different  assumptions  for  the  starting  point  of  structural 
primary  balance  and  GDP  deflator  growth.  Government  debt  and  GDP  growth  for 
2025 have been updated according to outturn data by Statistics Netherlands.  

A careful assessment of these differences in assumptions is necessary, especially as the 
average maximum net expenditure growth in the plan is higher than what was implied 
by the technical information.  

The differences in assumptions with the most significant impact on average maximum 
net expenditure growth are listed and assessed below.  

• 

• 

The plan assumes the starting point of the structural primary balance to stand at 
-0.4%  of  GDP,  instead  of  the  -0.6%  of  GDP  assumed  by  the  Commission 
technical  information,  which  was  based  on  the  Commission  Autumn  2025 
forecast. This contributes to a higher average maximum net expenditure growth 
over  the  adjustment  period  in  the  plan  than  according  to  the  Commission’s 
assumptions. The structural primary balance value in the plan is based on the 
latest forecast by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) 
in March 2026 and is consistent with outturn data on the deficit. Consequently, 
this assumption is deemed to be duly justified.  

The plan assumes the GDP deflator to stand at 2.5% in 2027, instead of 2.1% 
assumed by the Commission technical information. This contributes to a higher 
average  maximum  net  expenditure  growth  over  the  adjustment  period  in  the 
plan  than  according  to  the  Commission’s  assumptions.  The  higher  deflator 
forecast is explained by the economic effects of the conflict in the Middle East, 
which  is  expected  to  increase  the  deflator  due  to  the  pass-through  of  higher 
imported energy prices into domestic prices. Consequently, this assumption is 
deemed  to  be  duly  justified.  After  2027,  the  GDP  deflator  is  assumed  to 
linearly converge to 2.3% in 2035, consistently with the DSA methodology.   

The  remaining  differences  in  assumptions  do  not  have  a  significant  impact  on  the 
average  maximum  net  expenditure  growth  compared  to  the  Commission’s  technical 
information.  

This implies that the difference between the maximum growth rates of net expenditure 
in  the  plan  and  the  technical  information  is  explained  by  differences  in  assumptions 
that  overall  can  be  accepted,  in  line  with  Article  13,  point  (b),  of  Regulation  (EU) 
2024/1263. Overall, the differences in assumptions taken together lead to an average 
maximum  net  expenditure  growth  that  is  higher  than  the  average  maximum  net 
expenditure growth implied by the technical information.  

EN 

8 

  EN 

The  Commission  will  take  into  account  the  above  assessment  of  the  plan’s 
assumptions in  future  assessments of compliance with  the maximum  growth rates of 
net expenditure. 

Fiscal strategy of the plan  

(26)  According  to  the  indicative  fiscal  strategy  in  the  plan,  the  commitments  on  net 
expenditure will be delivered mainly through discretionary revenue increases that are 
consistent  with  further  increases  in  government  expenditure.  The  plan  assumes  an 
increase in household income taxation and social security contributions for employers, 
among other revenue measures, as well as an increase in defence spending, from 1.7% 
of GDP in 2025 to 2.7% of GDP in 2030.   

(27)  The specification of the policy measures to be adopted is to be confirmed or adjusted 
and quantified in the annual budgets. In doing so, the Netherlands should consider the 
impact  of  announced  policies  on  the  medium-term  projections  as  estimated  by  the 
Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). 

Reform  and  investment  intentions  in  the  plan  responding  to  the  main  challenges 
identified in the context of the European Semester and addressing the common priorities 
of the Union  

(28)  The  plan  describes  reform  and  investment  intentions  responding  to  the  main 
challenges identified in the context of the European Semester, as set out in particular 
in the 2025 country-specific recommendations (CSRs)10, including those pertaining to 
the  MIP,  and  in  line  with  the  priorities  of  the  Communication  “A  Competitiveness 
Compass for the EU”11. The plan includes about 85 reforms and investments, of which 
10  are  financially  supported  by  the  Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility  (RRF).  The 
plan’s reforms and investments are based on the coalition agreement as well as other 
ongoing initiatives.  

(29)  Concerning  the  common  priority  of  a  fair  green  and  digital  transition,  including  the 
climate  objectives  set  out  in  Regulation  (EU)  2021/1119,  the  plan  includes  over  20 
reforms  and  investments,  such  as  the  investment  package  for  sustainable  agriculture 
and  nitrogen  management,  the  Climate  and  Energy  Fund,  and  the  Program  for 
Accelerating  the  Sustainability  of  the  Built  Environment.  The  plan  also  describes 
measures under the recovery and resilience plan (RRP) to reduce dependency on fossil 
fuels  such  as  the  continuation  of  the  investment  subsidy  for  sustainable  energy  and 
energy savings (ISDE +++). The reforms and investments included in the plan intend 
to address the CSRs issued in 2025 to increase R&D spending, to address the funding 
gap  for  startups  and  scale-ups,  to  reduce  overall  reliance  on  fossil  fuels,  to  decrease 
electricity  grid  congestion  and  to  address  excessive  nitrogen  deposition  and  the 
deterioration of water quality.  

10 

11 

EN 

policies 

See  Council  Recommendation  of  8  July  2025  on  the  economic,  social,  employment,  structural  and 
budgetary 
ELI: 
http://data.europa.eu/eli/C/2025/3993/oj) 
See  Commission  Communication  “A  Competitiveness  Compass  for  the  EU”  of  29  January  2025, 
COM(2025)30 final. 

(OJ  C,  C/2025/3993, 

the  Netherlands 

20.8.2025, 

of 

9 

  EN 

 
(30)  Concerning  the  common  priority  of  social  and  economic  resilience,  including  the 
European Pillar of Social Rights, the plan includes an extensive list of over 50 reforms 
and  investments,  grouped  under  several  policy  areas  such  as  the  housing  market, 
education,  healthcare,  labour  market  and  taxation.  Some  of  these  investment  and 
reforms are included in the RRP, such as the actions to tackle bogus self-employment, 
support  to  affordable  housing  and  the  extension  of  intensive  care.  These  50  reforms 
and  investments  included  in  the  plan  intend  to  address  the  CSRs  issued  in  2025  to 
address the expected increase in age-related expenditure in long-term care, to reduce 
incentives to use flexible or temporary contracts,  address labour and skills shortages, 
improve basic skills, and boost participation in STEM programmes. Furthermore, the 
plan  includes  reforms  and  investments  in  the  housing  market  which  are  relevant  for 
the  macroeconomic  imbalances  procedure  and  that  intend  to  address  the  CSRs 
aligning  the  taxation  of  different  types  of  income  from  wealth,  supporting  the 
development  of  an  affordable  private  rental  sector,  and  removing  obstacles  for 
residential construction.  

(31)  Concerning  the  common  priority  of  energy  security,  the  plan  includes  the  energy 
market reform package (included in the RRP) to allow for flexible grid use when the 
grid is  congested, establish the framework for electricity grid investments  by system 
operators,  to  set  up  infrastructure  projects  related  to  the  expansion  of  the  electricity 
grid and introduce changes in permitting procedures for electricity grid. The plan also 
includes  the  Grid  congestion  crisis  Act  to  accelerate  procedures  for  energy 
infrastructure  projects.    Furthermore,  the  plan  includes  legislation  to  manage  gas 
crises, revising oil stockpiling  requirements,  enhancing  cyber and physical  resilience 
of energy infrastructure through EU directives, and investing in hydrogen production 
and diversified import strategies to reduce dependency risks. 

(32)  Concerning  the  common  priority  of  defence  capabilities,  the  plan  includes  a  set  of 
investments to be implemented between 2024 and 2028 that consist of the acquisition 
of  equipment,  renewal  of  real  estate  infrastructure,  including  to  ensure  its 
sustainability, and the modernisation and replacement of tactical IT infrastructure. The 
plan  includes  a  reference  to  the  general  increase  in  defence  spending,  from  1.7%  of 
GDP in 2025 to 2.7% of GDP in 2030.  

(33)  The  plan  provides 

information  on 

the  consistency  and,  where  appropriate, 
complementarity, with the Netherlands’ RRP. The reforms and investments outlined in 
the plan complement several actions undertaken under the RRP that also contribute to 
the  common  priorities  of  the  EU.  The  new  reforms  and  investments  in  the  plan  are 
consistent with the measures under the RRP.  

(34)  The  plan  does  not  provide  an  overview  of  the  public  investment  needs  of  the 

Netherlands related to the common priorities of the Union. 

Conclusion of the Commission’s assessment 

EN 

10 

  EN 

 
 
(35)  Overall, the Commission is of the view that the Netherlands’ plan of April 2026 fulfils 

the requirements of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263.  

OVERALL CONCLUSION 

(36)  This recommendation supersedes the Recommendation of 21 January 2025.  

(37) 

In  accordance  with  Article  17  of  Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263,  the  maximum  growth 
rates  of  net  expenditure  committed  to  in  the  plan  of  April  2026  should  be 
recommended by the Council to the Netherlands.  

HEREBY RECOMMENDS that THE NETHERLANDS: 

(1) 

Ensure  that  net  expenditure  growth  does  not  exceed  the  maxima  established  in 
Annex I to this Recommendation. 

ANNEX I 
Maximum growth rates of net expenditure 
(annual and cumulative growth rates, in nominal terms) 
The Netherlands 

Years 

2026 

2027 

2028 

2029 

2030 

Growth rates 
(%) 

Annual 

Cumulative 
(*) 

4.7 

4.7 

3.5 

8.4 

3.1 

3.5 

3.7 

11.7 

15.6 

19.9 

(*) The cumulative growth rates are calculated by reference to the base year of 2025. 
The cumulative growth rates are used in the annual monitoring of ex-post compliance 
in the control account. 

Done at Brussels, 

For the Council 
The President 

EN 

11 

  EN