COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Fiscal Statistical Tables providing background data relevant for the assessment of the budgetary policies of the Member States Accompanying the document COMMUNICATION FROM THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL AND THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK Reflecting the economic governance framework in national fiscal policy
Date: 2025-11-25
Institutions: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission
Subjects: EU Member State, budget deficit, budgetary expenditure, budgetary procedure, defence expenditure, economic forecasting, economic situation, euro area, fiscal policy, public debt

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 25.11.2025  SWD(2025) 951 final  COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Fiscal Statistical Tables providing background data relevant for the assessment of the budgetary policies of the Member States Accompanying the document COMMUNICATION FROM THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL AND THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK Reflecting the economic governance framework in national fiscal policy {COM(2025) 951 final}  
 
 
This  document  contains  tables  that  provide  relevant  background  data  for  the  assessment  of  the 
budgetary policies of Member States made in autumn  2025, including the 2026 Draft Budgetary 
Plans (DBPs) of euro area Member States.  

With the reform of the economic governance framework (1), fiscal surveillance in the EU focusses 
on  one  single  operational  indicator,  namely  net  nationally  financed  primary  expenditure  or  ‘net 
expenditure’. Box 1 explains the derivation of this new indicator and  of the control account, to be 
set up by the Commission to keep track of observed annual and cumulative upward and downward 
deviations of net expenditure from the path recommended by the Council.  

For all Member States, this Staff Working Document includes the tables in the following order(2): 

Table 1 (Macroeconomic developments and forecasts) shows the main macroeconomic data, 
including real GDP growth and its components, the output gap, employment, unemployment, labour 
productivity, inflation, the GDP deflator, compensation of employees, and net borrowing/lending vis-
à-vis the rest of the world. For the euro area Member States that submitted a 2026 DBP, the DBP 
projections  are  shown  side-by-side  with  those  of  the  Commission  Autumn  2025  Forecast (whose 
cut-off date was 31 October 2025). 

Table  2  (General  government  budgetary  position)  shows  data  on  the  main  general 
government  revenue  and  expenditure  components.  For  the  euro  area  Member  States  that 
submitted a 2026 DBP, the DBP projections are shown side-by-side with those of the Commission 
Autumn 2025 Forecast.  

Table  3 (Debt  developments)  shows the  evolution  of  general  government  debt  and  provides  a 
breakdown  of  the  change  in  the  debt-to-GDP  ratio  based  on  the  contributions  of  the  primary 
balance,  the  ‘snow-ball  effect’  (reflecting  the  relationship  between  nominal  GDP  growth  and 
interest expenditure) and the stock-flow adjustment (that is, other factors that have an impact on 
general  government  debt,  such  as  differences  between  cash  and  accrual  recording,  or  the  net 
accumulation  of  financial  assets).  For  the  euro  area  Member  States  that  submitted  a  2026  DBP, 
the DBP projections are shown side-by-side with those of the Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast. 

Table 4 (Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-
vis  the  recommendation)  offers  a  detailed  derivation  of  net  expenditure  as  calculated  on  the 
basis of the Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast. See Box 1 for more information.  

Table  5  (Fiscal  policy  measures  taken  by  General  Government)  presents  the  aggregated 
budgetary impact of fiscal policy measures (by main ESA2010 category), as reported by national 

(1)  Regulation 2024/1263 of the European Parliament and of the Council (EU) on the effective coordination of economic 
policies and on multilateral budgetary surveillance, together with the amended Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 on the 
implementation of the excessive deficit procedure and the amended Council Directive 2011/85/EU on the budgetary 
frameworks of Member States are the core elements of the reformed EU economic governance framework.  

(2)  For some Member States particular tables are not available so numbering in country sections might differ from the one 

presented in this section. 

2 

 
 
 
 
 
authorities. The Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast does not necessarily incorporate the same list 
of measures or quantifications. 

Table 6 (Fiscal stance) reports the European Commission’s estimate of the fiscal stance indicator 
and  its  components.  The  indicator  measures  the  short-term  impulse  to  the  economy  from 
discretionary fiscal policy (nationally financed, as well financed by EU grants). See Box 2 for more 
information. 

Table  7  (Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility  –  Grants)  presents  data  on  grants  from  the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility as reported by the euro area Member States in the Draft Budgetary 
Plans, their cash disbursements and the expenditure categories (or other costs) financed by those 
grants. 

Table 8 (Recovery and Resilience Facility  – Loans), where applicable,  presents data on cash 
disbursements and repayments of loans from/to the Recovery and Resilience Facility as reported by 
the euro area Member States in the Draft Budgetary Plans. 

The Fiscal Statistical Tables are complemented by three thematic boxes: 

Box 1 (Fiscal surveillance indicators) offers a derivation of ‘net expenditure’ and explains how 
the control account of the Stability and Growth Pact is operationalised. The control account tracks 
deviations  from  the  recommended  net  expenditure  path,  taking  into  account,  where  relevant,  the 
flexibility granted under the national escape clause for defence. The control account underpins the 
conclusions of the Commission’s assessment of EU Member States’ fiscal developments.  

Box 2 (Fiscal stance) provides details on the definition of the fiscal stance and its components. 

Box 3 (Statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows) summarises 
transactions.
the 

fundamental 

underlying 

principles 

recording 

these 

the 

of 

3 

 
Box 1 Derivation of the new net expenditure indicator and of the control account  

Table 4 monitors the growth rate of net nationally financed primary expenditure ‘∆NNPEt’ or ‘net 
expenditure’.  With  the  entry  into  force  of  the  new  economic  governance  framework  on  30  April 
2024,  net  expenditure  has  become the  new  single  indicator  for  fiscal  surveillance.  Article  2(2)  of 
Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263  defines  net  expenditure  as  government  expenditure  net  of  interest 
expenditure,  discretionary  revenue  measures,  expenditure  on  programmes  of  the  Union  fully 
matched  by  revenue  from  Union  funds,  national  expenditure  on  co-financing  of  programmes 
funded  by  the  Union,  cyclical  elements  of  unemployment  benefit  expenditure,  and  one-off 
measures.  

The growth rate of net expenditure is calculated in four steps: 

1. Calculating the absolute level of the net expenditure aggregate (before revenue measures) for a 
given year. 

NPEt=Et-It-Ut-Et

EU funded- Et

nat. cofinanced-Oneofft
E 

2.  Calculating  the  absolute  change  in  net  expenditure  (before  revenue  measures)  between  two 
years.3  

∆NPEt=NPEt-

NPEt-1
1+gt

3. Deducting the incremental impact of discretionary revenue measures (excluding one-off revenue 
measures) to arrive at the absolute change in net expenditure (after revenue measures). 

∆NPEt

*=∆NPEt-DRMt+(Oneofft

R ) 
R-Oneofft-1

4. Calculating the growth rate of net expenditure by comparing the change with the starting level of 
net expenditure (before revenue measures) in t-1. 

growth rate (NPEt

*)= 

*
∆NPEt
NPEt-1/(1+gt) 

*100 

By  deducting  estimates  for  the  cyclical  component  of  unemployment  benefits,  an  important 
element  of  expenditure  driven  by the  business  cycle  is  excluded.  By  definition,  one-off  measures 
have  only  a  transitory  budgetary  effect  and  hence  do  not  lead  to  a  sustained  change  in  the 
budgetary  position.  The  deduction  of  discretionary  revenue  measures  works  in  two  directions: 
measures that increase revenue have a dampening effect on net expenditure, while measures that 
lead to decreased revenues increase net expenditure. EU-funded expenditure is excluded as it has 
no impact on the government deficit or on debt sustainability. Nationally co-financed expenditure is 
also excluded.  

As  a  result,  the  net  expenditure  aggregate  is  very  similar  to  the  one  used  to  calculate  the  fiscal 
stance, but it excludes expenditure financed by the EU budget and national co-financing. 

NPEt 

* 
NPEt
Et 
It 

Net  nationally  financed  primary  expenditure  (before  revenue 
measures) 
Absolute change in net nationally financed primary expenditure 
(after revenue measures) 
General government total expenditure 
Interest expenditure 

3  

In Table 3, net expenditure is expressed in % of GDP (line 7). As a result, absolute net expenditure in year t-1 needs to be 
adjusted for the nominal GDP growth in year t.  

4 

 
 
 
 
Ut 
EU funded 
Et
nat.  cofinanced 
Et

DRMt 

Oneofft 

Cyclical elements of unemployment benefit expenditure 
Expenditure  on  programmes  of  the  Union  fully  matched  by 
revenue from Union funds 
National co-financing of EU programmes 
Discretionary revenue measures (incremental impact, excluding 
revenue  
measures compensated by EU grants) 
One-off  measures  (revenue  or  expenditure,  indicated  by 
superscript R or E respectively, impact in levels) 

Deviations from the recommended net expenditure path are to be recorded in a control account, on 
both annual and cumulated bases. For the calculation of the balances of the control account, the 
Commission will take as a basis the difference between the observed and recommended maximum 
annual growth rates of net expenditure of each Member State. 

These  calculations  will  be  the  same  as  those  shown  for  each  Member  State  in  Table  4a  (Net 
expenditure 
the 
recommendation). 

forecast),  annual  and  cumulated  deviations  vis-à-vis 

(outturn  and 

•  A  first  step  is  to  calculate  the  annual  level  of  the  net  expenditure  aggregate  before  taking 
into  account  Discretionary  Revenue  Measures  (DRMs)  (Line  7).  This  calculation  follows  the 
definition set out in Article 2(2) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263.  A number of items (interest 
expenditure,  cyclical  unemployment  expenditure,  EU-funded  expenditure,  national  co-
financing of EU programmes, and one-off expenditure) are deducted from total expenditure. 
This gives the level of net expenditure in national currency before DRMs (Line 7).  

•  In a second step, the annual change is calculated in net expenditure that is not compensated 
by  DRMs  (Line  10).  DRMs  are  estimated  by  the  Commission  in  terms  of  their  annual 
incremental impact, as opposed to the items netted out in the first step, which are in (annual) 
levels. Therefore, since DRMs are reported as changes in revenue, they should be deducted 
from the changes in (net) expenditure. The annual change in net expenditure after DRMs (in 
national  currency,  Line  10)  is  calculated  as  the  change  in  net  expenditure  before  DRMs 
(Line 8) minus the annual incremental impact of DRMs (Line 9). 

•  These  annual  level  changes  are  then  converted  into  the  observed  growth  rates  of  net 
expenditure  (Line 11)  and  compared  to  the  recommended  growth  rates  of  net  expenditure 
(Line  12),  as  per  the  Council  recommendation.4  The  difference  between  these  two  growth 
rates is multiplied by the level of the previous year’s net expenditure aggregate before the 
annual incremental impact of DRMs is taken into account (Line 7), thus expressing the annual 
gap in national currency (Line 13). 

•  Finally, the annual balance of the control account (Line 16) is expressed as a percentage of 
GDP. For this, the annual  balance is equal  to the annual  deviation (Line 13)  divided by the 
nominal GDP level (Line 15). The reporting of the balances in terms of percentage of nominal 
GDP follows the provision of the underlying legislation. 

The  cumulated  balance  of  the  control  account  will  be  calculated  as  the  sum  of  the 
annual deviations (in national currency) expressed as a percentage of GDP. The cumulated 
deviation in national currency (Line 14) is equal to the previous year’s cumulated deviation plus the 
current year’s annual gap (Line 13). The cumulated balance of the control account (Line 17) is then 

4   The  observed  growth  rate  of  net  expenditure  will  be  the  annual  change  of  net  expenditure  after  DRMs  (Line 10) 
compared to the previous year’s observed net expenditure before DRMs (Line 7). This reflects the annual incremental 
nature of DRMs. 

5 

 
 
 
equal  to  the  cumulated  deviation  (Line  14)  divided  by  the  level  of  nominal  GDP  of  the  last  year 
(Line  15).  This methodology  ensures  the  additivity  of  the  annual  deviations  in  national  currency.5 
Deviations  from  the  recommended  maximum  annual  and  cumulative  growth  rates  of  net 
expenditure  are  recorded  in  annual  and  cumulated  terms  since  the  base  year  of  the  relevant 
recommendation.  Positive  deviations  are  compared  to  the  thresholds  of  0.3%  of  GDP  in  annual 
terms and 0.6% of GDP in cumulated terms in line with article 2(2) of the amended Regulation (EC) 
No 1467/97. 

For Member States for which the national escape clause is activated by the Council, the 
Commission will prepare an augmented control account. It identifies all deviations from the 
recommended net expenditure path but will only register as debits those deviations that exceed the 
flexibility under the national escape clause. This means that in the operation of the control account, 
the Commission will apply a two-step approach:  

1. 
In  a  first  step,  the  control  account  will  work  as  presented  above.  All  deviations  from  the 
recommended  expenditure  growth  path  are  identified,  irrespective  of  whether  the  national 
escape clause has been activated. 

In  case  the  control  account  records  an upward deviation  from  the  recommended  net  expenditure 
path,  and  the  national  escape  clause  has  been  activated,  the  augmented  control  account  will  be 
examined.  

In  the  second  step,  the  augmented  control  account  identifies  whether  upward  deviations 
2. 
from the recommended net expenditure path are allowed under the conditions of the national 
escape  clause  for  defence.    The  flexibility  under  the  national  escape  clause  allows  deviations 
from  the  recommended maximum  growth  of  net  expenditure  corresponding  to  the increase in 
defence expenditure6 compared to the reference year, up to 1.5% of GDP over the period 2025 
to 2028. Deviations beyond that amount are taken into account to assess compliance with the 
rules of the Stability and Growth Pact as the recommendations to activate the national escape 
clause  do  not  modify  the  definitions  of  government  deficit,  debt  and  net  expenditure  to  be 
compiled  and  reported.    Upward  deviations  from  the  recommended  expenditure  path  beyond 
what the national escape clause allows are registered as debits.7  

For Member States that benefit from flexibility under the national escape clause and that observe 
debits in their annual or cumulated balances of the control account, Table 4b (Defence expenditure 
and  the  national  escape  clause)  presents  the  balances  of  the  augmented  control  account 
(cumulated balance after flexibility).  

5   Small differences could emerge between the sum of the annual balances and the cumulated balance (expressed in % 

GDP) of the control account due to GDP developments (leading to changes in the denominator).  

6   The defence spending relevant to the assessment of compliance is the nationally financed defence expenditure as 

defined in the classification of the functions of government (COFOG02).  

7  

In  the  augmented  control  account  only  the  accumulated  deviations  matter  and  are  compared  to  the  threshold  of 
0.6% of GDP. 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Box 2 Derivation of the indicator of the fiscal stance 

Traditionally,  the  fiscal  stance  is  defined  as  a  measure  of  the  annual  change  in  the  underlying  budgetary 
position  of  the  general  government.  It  may  serve  to  assess  the  impact  of  fiscal  policy  on  an  economy’s 
aggregate  demand,  as  well  as  the  speed  at  which  the  underlying  budgetary  position  converges  towards 
budgetary  targets.  Using  the  same  indicator  to  gauge  two  different  concepts  was  appropriate  under  the 
assumption  that  government  expenditure  was  funded  by  national  revenue  sources  and  debt-financing, 
without large external transfers. However, in the presence of sizeable transfers from the EU budget (such as 
those  from  the  Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility  or  other  EU  grants),  conventional  indicators  do  not  fully 
capture  the  additional  fiscal  impulse  provided  by  the  EU  budget,  as  the  related  expenditure  is  offset  by 
matching revenue from the EU. 

The fiscal stance reported in Table 5 for each Member State aims to assess the economic impulse stemming 
from fiscal policies, both those that are nationally financed and those that are financed by the EU budget. It 
measures  the  change  in  general  government  primary  expenditure,  net  of  the  incremental  impact  of 
discretionary  revenue  measures,  excluding  cyclical  unemployment  expenditure,  but  including  the  change  in 
expenditure financed by Recovery and Resilience Facility grants and other EU funds, relative to the medium-
term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate, in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an 
excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds 
to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. 

Fiscal Stancet=

(1+Pott)∙(1+πt)∙NEt-1-(NEt-∆DRMt)
GDPt

Where ‘Pott’ is the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate, ‘πt’ is the GDP deflator, and 
NEt=Et-It-Ut- Oneofft

E, in a given year ‘t’. 

The  expenditure  aggregate  ‘NEt’  comprises  primary  expenditure  (total  expenditure  ‘Et’  less  interest 
E’, in a given year 
expenditure ‘It’), net of cyclical unemployment benefits ‘Ut’ and one-off expenditure ‘Oneofft
‘t’.  In  turn,  ‘∆DRMt’  stands  for  the  incremental  budgetary  impact  of  revenue  measures  (other  than  one-off 
revenue), in a given year ‘t’.  

7 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Box 3 Statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows 

Eurostat  has  issued  guidance  on  the  statistical  recording  of  flows  related  to  the  Recovery  and  Resilience 
Facility (RRF). (8). The following fundamental principles guide the statistical recording of RRF-related flows: 

•  RRF grants are recorded by matching the time of recording of revenue from the EU with 
the  time  of  recording  of  expenditure  financed  by  these  grants.  This  is  irrespective  of  the 
timing  of  disbursements  or  pre-financing.  This  approach  is  by  analogy  to  the  recording  of  the 
traditional EU-fund related flows and it is often referred to as the 'principle of neutrality of EU flows'. 
It ensures that timing differences - leads or lags - between disbursements and concrete spending do 
not  have  an  effect  on  the  government  balance.  This  principle  is  well  established,  including  in  the 
ESA 2010 Regulation. 

• 

• 

The  government  sector  is  the  counterpart  of  the  RRF  grants.  While  some  RRF  grants  may 
ultimately be channelled to non-governmental entities in the form of subsidies and/or transfers, the 
RRF  Regulation  establishes that  the  financing  applies at  the  level  of  payments  from  the  European 
Commission to the Member States as beneficiaries, irrespective of the further use of the RRF funds. 
This is somewhat different from the statistical recording of other EU fund-related flows, where the 
beneficiary,  for  national  accounts  purposes,  can  be  either  the  government  or  a  non-governmental 
entity. 

Loans extended by the RRF to a Member State add to its government’s debt. At the same 
time, borrowing taken out  by the European Commission to finance RRF  grants is considered as EU 
debt and, therefore, it is not attributed to the Member States. 

In the Fiscal Statistical Tables, these fundamental principles underlie the statistical reporting of RRF-related 
flows as presented in Table 2 (General government budgetary position), Table 4 (Net expenditure outturn and 
forecast), Table 5 (Fiscal stance), Table 6 (Recovery and Resilience Facility  – Grants), and, where applicable, 
also in Table 7 (Recovery and Resilience Facility – Loans). 

(8)  ‘Guidance note on the statistical recording of the Recovery and Resilience Facility’, Eurostat, September 2021. 

8 

 
 
10 

14 

18 

22 

27 

32 

37 

42 

48 

52 

56 

61 

66 

71 

75 

80 

84 

88 

93 

97 

101 

105 

110 

114 

119 

124 

129 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1. 

2. 

3. 

4. 

5. 

6. 

7. 

8. 

9. 

Belgium 

 Bulgaria 

Czechia 

Denmark 

Germany 

Estonia 

Ireland 

Greece 

Spain 

10.  France 

11.  Croatia 

12. 

Italy 

13.  Cyprus 

14.  Latvia 

15.  Lithuania 

16.  Luxembourg 

17.  Hungary 

18.  Malta 

19.  The Netherlands 

20.  Austria 

21.  Poland 

22.  Portugal 

23.  Romania 

24.  Slovenia 

25.  Slovakia 

26.  Finland 

27.  Sweden 

9 

 
 
 
 
 
 
1. BELGIUM 

Table 1.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

10 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change1.11.01.12Private consumption% change2.02.11.33Government consumption expenditure% change1.81.51.54Gross fixed capital formation% change2.0-1.01.25Exports of goods and services% change-1.7-0.91.56Imports of goods and services% change-1.3-0.61.7Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps2.01.21.38- Change in inventoriespps-0.60.00.09- Net exportspps-0.3-0.3-0.210Output gap% pot GDP-0.2-0.8-1.111Employment % change0.30.50.712Unemployment rate%5.76.06.213Labour productivity% change0.80.50.414HICP % change4.32.81.815GDP deflator% change1.92.51.916Compensation of employees per head% change3.43.72.517Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-0.5-0.8-0.8Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 1.2:  General government budgetary position 

Belgium 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

11 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue49.749.349.3of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.911.511.43- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.16.916.916.94- Social contributions15.215.215.35- Other (residual)5.85.85.76=7+14Expenditure 54.154.654.9of which:7- Primary expenditure51.852.252.3of which:8- Compensation of employees 12.512.512.59- Intermediate consumption4.34.44.510- Social payments25.525.825.811- Subsidies3.53.43.412- Gross fixed capital formation3.13.23.213- Other2.92.92.914- Interest expenditure2.22.42.615=1-6General government balance-4.4-5.3-5.516=1-7Primary balance-2.1-2.9-2.917Cyclically adjusted balance-4.2-4.8-4.818One-offs-0.10.00.119=17-18Structural balance-4.1-4.8-4.920=19+14Structural primary balance-1.8-2.4-2.3Variables (% GDP) 
   
 
 
Table 1.3:  Debt developments 

Belgium 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM) 

Table 1.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

* The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2024. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

12 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)103.9107.1109.92=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)1.43.32.8Contributions**3Primary balance2.12.92.94≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.7-1.1-0.6of which:5- Interest expenditure2.22.42.66- Real growth effect-1.1-1.0-1.27- Inflation effect-1.9-2.5-2.08'Stock-flow' adjustment0.01.50.5Variables202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR335.3350.8363.22Interest expenditurebn EUR13.715.317.03Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.10.50.74Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR1.62.01.75National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.60.50.66One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.10.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR319.4332.5343.28Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR13.110.79DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR-0.41.010=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR13.59.711Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change4.2%2.9%12Recommended net expenditure growth% change3.6%2.5%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR2.01.414 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation*bn EUR2.03.415=13/17Annual balance% GDP0.30.216=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP0.30.517p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR620.3642.1662.1Variables 
  
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 1.5:  Defence expenditure and the national escape clause 

Belgium 

* The amount has a lower bound of 0 and an upper bound of 1.5 % of GDP. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 1.6:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 1.7:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

13 

2021202220232024202520261Total defence expenditure% GDP0.91.00.91.31.41.72of which: gross fixed capital formation% GDP0.10.10.10.30.40.43Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure*% GDP0.50.84Cumulated balance after flexibility% GDP-0.2-0.3202520261Taxes on production and imports-0.10.12Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.0.10.13Social contributions-0.10.04Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total-0.10.2#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 -0.4-0.10.4of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.0-0.10.13=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-0.40.00.3   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.1-0.10.45   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.20.0-0.16   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.10.10.1#Variables (% GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
2.  BULGARIA 

Table 2.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

14 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change3.43.02.72Private consumption% change4.95.82.63Government consumption expenditure% change3.62.02.64Gross fixed capital formation% change1.55.53.05Exports of goods and services% change1.8-0.62.76Imports of goods and services% change3.92.52.7Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps3.84.72.68- Change in inventoriespps0.80.00.09- Net exportspps-1.2-1.70.010Output gap% pot GDP0.60.30.111Employment % change1.11.10.312Unemployment rate%4.23.53.713Labour productivity% change2.31.92.314HICP % change2.63.52.915GDP deflator% change7.25.83.516Compensation of employees per head% change14.112.46.317Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP0.0-0.80.6Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 2.2:  General government budgetary position 

 Bulgaria 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

15 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue36.138.340.1of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.614.915.73- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.6.56.96.74- Social contributions8.99.49.75- Other (residual)6.27.17.96=7+14Expenditure 39.241.342.8of which:7- Primary expenditure38.740.441.7of which:8- Compensation of employees 11.312.212.79- Intermediate consumption4.73.93.610- Social payments15.116.016.911- Subsidies2.21.71.612- Gross fixed capital formation3.24.23.813- Other2.22.43.114- Interest expenditure0.50.91.115=1-6General government balance-3.0-3.0-2.716=1-7Primary balance-2.5-2.1-1.617Cyclically adjusted balance-3.2-3.1-2.718One-offs-0.50.40.019=17-18Structural balance-2.7-3.5-2.720=19+14Structural primary balance-2.2-2.6-1.7Variables (% GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2.3:  Debt developments 

 Bulgaria 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM) 

Table 2.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

* The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2024. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

16 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)23.828.530.62=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)0.94.72.0Contributions**3Primary balance2.52.11.64≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.7-1.0-0.6of which:5- Interest expenditure0.50.91.16- Real growth effect-0.7-0.7-0.77- Inflation effect-1.5-1.3-0.98'Stock-flow' adjustment0.13.61.0Variables202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR41.147.251.92Interest expenditurebn EUR0.51.01.33Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.71.93.75National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.20.40.46One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.50.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR39.043.946.58Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR4.92.69DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR1.01.110=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR3.91.511Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change10.1%3.4%12Recommended net expenditure growth% change6.2%4.9%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR1.5-0.614 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation*bn EUR1.50.915=13/17Annual balance% GDP1.3-0.516=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP1.30.717p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR104.8114.2121.3Variables 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 Bulgaria 

Table 2.5:  Defence expenditure and the national escape clause 

* The amount has a lower bound of 0 and an upper bound of 1.5 % of GDP. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 2.6:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

17 

2024202520261Total defence expenditure% GDP1.32.51.82of which: gross fixed capital formation% GDP0.11.10.33Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure*% GDP1.20.54Cumulated balance after flexibility% GDP0.10.2202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 0.1-1.6-0.4of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.1-0.9-1.43=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.0-0.61.0   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.50.4-0.25   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.4-0.61.26   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.0-0.50.0#Variables (% GDP) 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
3. CZECHIA 

Table 3.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

18 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change1.22.41.92Private consumption% change2.43.33.23Government consumption expenditure% change3.21.51.44Gross fixed capital formation% change-2.80.63.25Exports of goods and services% change1.53.42.06Imports of goods and services% change0.54.33.0Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps1.02.02.68- Change in inventoriespps-0.50.7-0.39- Net exportspps0.7-0.3-0.510Output gap% pot GDP-1.7-0.8-0.511Employment % change0.60.70.112Unemployment rate%2.62.73.013Labour productivity% change0.61.71.814HICP % change2.72.32.115GDP deflator% change3.93.43.016Compensation of employees per head% change6.15.95.417Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP3.73.93.9Variables 
 
 
     
 
 
 
Table 3.2:  General government budgetary position 

Czechia 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

19 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue40.840.540.1of which:2- Taxes on production and imports10.610.510.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.58.37.84- Social contributions15.815.916.05- Other (residual)5.95.95.86=7+14Expenditure 42.942.442.2of which:7- Primary expenditure41.541.040.8of which:8- Compensation of employees 9.69.69.99- Intermediate consumption5.85.85.610- Social payments17.016.416.311- Subsidies1.92.02.012- Gross fixed capital formation4.74.84.813- Other2.52.32.314- Interest expenditure1.31.31.315=1-6General government balance-2.0-1.8-2.016=1-7Primary balance-0.7-0.5-0.717Cyclically adjusted balance-1.4-1.5-1.818One-offs0.0-0.10.019=17-18Structural balance-1.4-1.4-1.820=19+14Structural primary balance0.0-0.1-0.5Variables (% GDP) 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 3.3:  Debt developments 

Czechia 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM) 

Table 3.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

20 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)43.343.444.12=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)1.10.10.7Contributions**3Primary balance0.70.50.74≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.7-1.0-0.7of which:5- Interest expenditure1.31.31.36- Real growth effect-0.5-1.0-0.87- Inflation effect-1.6-1.4-1.28'Stock-flow' adjustment1.10.70.7Variables2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn NAC3346.43453.63614.73774.22Interest expenditurebn NAC98.5107.2113.6118.83Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn NAC0.20.30.61.64Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn NAC81.479.1103.6122.75National co-financing of EU programmesbn NAC40.738.041.846.46One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn NAC0.00.010.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn NAC3125.63229.03345.03484.78Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn NAC103.3116.1139.79DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn NAC73.613.7-33.110=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn NAC29.7102.4172.811Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change1.0%3.2%5.2%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change5.3%4.5%2.5%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn NAC-135.9-42.989.214 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn NAC-135.9-178.9-89.715=13/17Annual balance% GDP-1.7-0.51.016=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-1.7-2.1-1.017p.m. Nominal GDP  bn NAC7659.78057.08532.58952.6Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Czechia 

Table 3.5:  Defence expenditure and the national escape clause 

* The amount has a lower bound of 0 and an upper bound of 1.5 % of GDP. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 3.6:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

21 

2021202220232024202520261Total defence expenditure% GDP1.01.01.21.31.41.52of which: gross fixed capital formation% GDP0.20.20.40.40.40.53Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure*% GDP0.40.54Cumulated balance after flexibility% GDP-2.5-1.5202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 2.00.5-0.4of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.1-0.2-0.23=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure1.90.7-0.3   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure1.70.6-0.45   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.20.00.06   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.00.10.1#Variables (% GDP) 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
4. DENMARK 

Table 4.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

22 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change3.52.02.12Private consumption% change1.02.02.03Government consumption expenditure% change1.03.72.14Gross fixed capital formation% change3.0-2.01.95Exports of goods and services% change7.11.33.96Imports of goods and services% change4.10.34.1Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps1.41.31.88- Change in inventoriespps-0.30.00.09- Net exportspps2.40.70.310Output gap% pot GDP-1.6-1.4-0.811Employment % change0.70.90.212Unemployment rate%6.26.16.113Labour productivity% change2.81.01.814HICP % change1.31.91.015GDP deflator% change1.51.41.316Compensation of employees per head% change4.43.53.317Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP11.811.611.5Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 4.2:  General government budgetary position 

Denmark 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

23 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue51.851.851.7of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.813.813.93- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.31.331.231.14- Social contributions0.70.70.75- Other (residual)6.06.06.06=7+14Expenditure 47.349.450.6of which:7- Primary expenditure46.548.749.8of which:8- Compensation of employees 14.314.815.09- Intermediate consumption8.38.89.110- Social payments15.616.016.311- Subsidies1.31.41.312- Gross fixed capital formation3.23.84.213- Other3.94.04.014- Interest expenditure0.80.70.715=1-6General government balance4.52.31.116=1-7Primary balance5.23.11.817Cyclically adjusted balance5.43.11.618One-offs-0.60.00.019=17-18Structural balance6.03.11.620=19+14Structural primary balance6.83.92.3Variables (% GDP) 
 
   
 
 
Table 4.3:  Debt developments 

Denmark 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM) 

24 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)30.528.927.72=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-2.4-1.6-1.2Contributions**3Primary balance-5.2-3.1-1.84≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.8-0.3-0.2of which:5- Interest expenditure0.80.70.76- Real growth effect-1.1-0.6-0.67- Inflation effect-0.5-0.4-0.48'Stock-flow' adjustment3.61.70.9Variables 
 
   
 
 
Table 4.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

Denmark 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 4.5:  Defence expenditure and the national escape clause 

* The amount has a lower bound of 0 and an upper bound of 1.5 % of GDP. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

25 

2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn NAC1321.41385.31496.61583.82Interest expenditurebn NAC19.022.922.123.33Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn NAC1.911.011.211.84Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn NAC5.83.64.24.95National co-financing of EU programmesbn NAC0.50.20.20.26One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn NAC5.318.30.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn NAC1288.81329.31458.91543.58Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn NAC40.4129.684.69DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn NAC-0.40.3-14.210=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn NAC40.8129.398.811Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change3.2%9.7%6.8%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change7.2%5.0%5.7%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn NAC-51.962.915.714 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn NAC-51.910.926.615=13/17Annual balance% GDP-1.82.10.516=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-1.80.40.817p.m. Nominal GDP  bn NAC2787.92926.93027.13130.8Variables2021202220232024202520261Total defence expenditure% GDP1.21.21.81.82.63.12of which: gross fixed capital formation% GDP0.30.20.30.20.40.53Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure*% GDP1.41.54Cumulated balance after flexibility% GDP-1.1-0.7 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 4.6:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

Denmark 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 4.7:  Fiscal stance 

(1)  A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

26 

202520261Taxes on production and imports0.10.12Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.-0.2-0.53Social contributions0.00.04Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.20.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total0.1-0.4#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 0.2-2.9-1.7of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.10.00.03=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.1-2.9-1.7   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.2-1.6-1.25   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.1-0.6-0.46   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.3-0.70.0#Variables (% GDP) 
 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5. GERMANY 

Table 5.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

27 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change-0.50.00.21.01.22Private consumption% change0.50.21.10.81.23Government consumption expenditure% change2.62.12.31.42.44Gross fixed capital formation% change-3.30.4-0.83.23.55Exports of goods and services% change-2.1-2.2-0.21.30.96Imports of goods and services% change-0.61.83.52.12.4Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps0.11.60.91.31.98- Change in inventoriespps0.10.90.6-0.1-0.19- Net exportspps-0.7-1.6-1.4-0.3-0.610Output gap% pot GDP-1.7-2.0-2.0-1.4-1.311Employment % change0.1-0.20.00.10.212Unemployment rate%3.43.33.63.23.513Labour productivity% change-0.60.10.21.01.014HICP % change2.5n.a.2.3n.a.2.215GDP deflator% change3.12.13.02.02.716Compensation of employees per head% change5.13.34.23.03.117Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP5.2n.a.3.9n.a.3.420252026Variables 
 
 
     
 
 
 
Table 5.2:  General government budgetary position 

Germany 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 5.3:  Debt developments 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

28 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue46.847½47.647½47.4of which:2- Taxes on production and imports10.310½10.410½10.33- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.12.812¾12.812½12.74- Social contributions17.518½18.018½18.15- Other (residual)6.35¾6.466.36=7+14Expenditure 49.45150.652¼51.4of which:7- Primary expenditure48.45049.55150.2of which:8- Compensation of employees 8.38½8.48½8.39- Intermediate consumption6.56½6.66½6.710- Social payments25.326½25.926¾26.111- Subsidies1.31¼1.31¼1.412- Gross fixed capital formation3.13¼3.23¼3.413- Other4.044.14¾4.214- Interest expenditure1.111.21¼1.215=1-6General government balance-2.7-3¼-3.1-4¾-4.016=1-7Primary balance-1.6-2¼-1.9-3½-2.817Cyclically adjusted balance-1.8-2¼-2.0-4-3.318One-offs0.000.000.019=17-18Structural balance-1.8-2¼-2.0-4-3.320=19+14Structural primary balance-0.7-1¼-0.9-2¾-2.1Variables (% GDP)202520262024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)62.265    63.569¼65.22=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-0.12¾1.34¼1.7Contributions**3Primary balance1.62¼1.93½2.84≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.5-¼-0.8-¾-1.2of which:5- Interest expenditure1.11    1.21¼1.26- Real growth effect0.30    -0.1-¾-0.77- Inflation effect-1.9-1¼-1.8-1¼-1.68'Stock-flow' adjustment-1.2¾0.11½0.120252026Variables 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 5.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

Germany 

* The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2024. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 5.5:  Defence expenditure and the national escape clause 

(*) The amount has a lower bound of 0 and an upper bound of 1.5 % of GDP. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

29 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR2139.72260.52383.92Interest expenditurebn EUR45.851.455.53Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR4.89.06.84Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR8.512.513.25National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR1.71.71.96One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR2078.92185.92306.68Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR107.0120.79DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR29.26.810=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR77.8113.911Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change3.7%5.2%12Recommended net expenditure growth% change4.4%4.5%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR-13.715.514 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation*bn EUR-13.71.815=13/17Annual balance% GDP-0.30.316=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-0.30.017p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR4329.04465.64641.0Variables2021202220232024202520261Total defence expenditure% GDP1.11.21.31.41.61.92of which: gross fixed capital formation% GDP0.20.20.20.20.20.23Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure*% GDP0.50.84Cumulated balance after flexibility% GDP-0.8-0.7 
     
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
Table 5.6:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

Germany 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 5.7:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

30 

202520261Taxes on production and imports¼02Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.-¼03Social contributions¾¼4Property income005Capital taxes006Other007=1+2+3+4+5+6Total¾¼#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)DBP202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 0.0-0.1-0.9of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.1-0.10.03=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-0.10.0-0.9   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.30.0-0.65   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.20.0-0.26   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.20.0-0.1#Variables (% GDP) 
 
  
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Germany 

Table 5.8:  RRF - Grants 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

31 

Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.10.10.10.10.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.10.00.10.30.00.220202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.10.00.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.10.10.10.10.10.16=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.10.10.10.10.10.120202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
 
     
 
 
 
6. ESTONIA 

Table 6.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

32 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change-0.10.80.62.52.12Private consumption% change0.1-1.00.53.02.63Government consumption expenditure% change1.8-1.91.72.73.34Gross fixed capital formation% change-6.55.94.37.17.95Exports of goods and services% change-1.53.32.12.22.06Imports of goods and services% change0.43.53.54.34.4Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps-1.20.61.74.04.08- Change in inventoriespps1.0-1.60.0-1.20.09- Net exportspps-1.5-0.3-1.0-1.9-1.810Output gap% pot GDP-3.8-4.0-3.1-2.5-1.511Employment % change0.2-0.6-0.10.60.212Unemployment rate%7.67.67.67.07.213Labour productivity% change-0.31.40.71.91.914HICP % change3.75.34.83.52.815GDP deflator% change4.04.34.03.14.316Compensation of employees per head% change7.06.45.34.54.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP0.4n.a.0.3n.a.-0.520252026Variables 
 
 
      
 
Table 6.2:  General government budgetary position 

Estonia 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

33 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue42.243.343.441.941.8of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.914.214.214.714.63- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.910.110.18.28.14- Social contributions12.612.612.712.612.65- Other (residual)6.86.46.46.46.46=7+14Expenditure 44.044.544.746.446.2of which:7- Primary expenditure43.444.044.245.845.6of which:8- Compensation of employees 12.212.212.212.312.29- Intermediate consumption6.36.26.26.76.710- Social payments15.015.115.214.914.911- Subsidies0.70.80.80.80.812- Gross fixed capital formation6.26.86.98.18.013- Other2.92.92.93.03.014- Interest expenditure0.60.50.50.60.615=1-6General government balance-1.7-1.3-1.3-4.5-4.416=1-7Primary balance-1.1-0.8-0.8-3.9-3.917Cyclically adjusted balance0.1n.a.0.3n.a.-3.718One-offs0.30.30.10.00.019=17-18Structural balance-0.20.30.2-3.2-3.720=19+14Structural primary balance0.40.80.6-2.7-3.1Variables (% GDP)20252026 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
Table 6.3:  Debt developments 

Estonia 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 6.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

34 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)23.523.323.425.925.92=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)3.3-0.20.02.62.4Contributions**3Primary balance1.10.80.83.93.94≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.2-0.6-0.5-0.7-0.9of which:5- Interest expenditure0.60.50.50.60.66- Real growth effect0.0-0.2-0.1-0.6-0.57- Inflation effect-0.8-1.0-0.9-0.7-0.98'Stock-flow' adjustment2.3-0.3-0.3-0.6-0.620252026Variables2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR16.517.518.620.52Interest expenditurebn EUR0.10.20.20.23Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.00.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.70.50.80.95National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.10.10.10.16One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR15.716.617.519.28Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR0.90.91.79DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR0.30.8-0.510=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR0.60.12.211Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change3.7%0.4%12.5%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change1.9%7.1%5.1%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR0.3-1.11.314 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn EUR0.3-0.80.515=13/17Annual balance% GDP0.7-2.72.916=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP0.7-2.01.017p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR38.439.841.744.4Variables 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Estonia 

Table 6.5:  Defence expenditure and the national escape clause 

* The amount has a lower bound of 0 and an upper bound of 1.5 % of GDP. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 6.6:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

35 

2021202220232024202520261Total defence expenditure% GDP2.02.23.03.73.85.12of which: gross fixed capital formation% GDP0.70.71.41.61.72.63Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure*% GDP1.51.54Cumulated balance after flexibility% GDP-3.5-0.5202520261Taxes on production and imports0.70.52Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.1.3-1.63Social contributions0.00.04Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total2.0-1.1#ESA2010 category(% of GDP) 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
Table 6.7:  Fiscal stance 

Estonia 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 6.8:  RRF - Grants 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

36 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 1.11.4-3.0of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.4-0.5-0.23=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.71.9-2.8   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure1.12.2-1.85   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.1-0.5-1.16   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.40.20.1#Variables (% GDP)Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.10.30.40.60.42Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.40.00.70.30.60.520202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.10.10.14Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.10.20.15Capital transfers0.00.00.00.20.30.30.36=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.10.30.30.50.420202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.30.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
7. IRELAND 

Table 7.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

37 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change2.610.810.71.00.22Private consumption% change3.02.92.92.32.53Government consumption expenditure% change4.83.03.93.04.54Gross fixed capital formation% change-28.536.234.4-4.92.05Exports of goods and services% change8.67.56.41.50.46Imports of goods and services% change2.76.24.91.92.8Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps-5.77.47.2-0.11.68- Change in inventoriespps-0.8-1.0-0.80.80.79- Net exportspps8.94.44.20.3-2.110Output gap% pot GDP-1.95.43.82.70.311Employment % change2.72.22.11.51.512Unemployment rate%4.34.64.64.84.713Labour productivity% change-0.18.48.4-0.5-1.314HICP % change1.31.81.91.91.915GDP deflator% change4.51.72.12.02.016Compensation of employees per head% change4.23.73.33.93.117Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP15.7n.a.8.0n.a.6.220252026Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
Table 7.2:  General government budgetary position 

Ireland 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

38 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue26.423.122.823.323.7of which:2- Taxes on production and imports6.36.05.95.95.93- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.11.811.411.311.712.04- Social contributions4.13.93.94.04.05- Other (residual)4.21.91.81.71.76=7+14Expenditure 22.421.521.422.622.7of which:7- Primary expenditure21.821.020.822.022.1of which:8- Compensation of employees 6.05.85.86.16.19- Intermediate consumption3.63.43.43.53.610- Social payments7.67.07.07.37.411- Subsidies0.50.50.50.50.512- Gross fixed capital formation2.62.52.53.02.913- Other1.51.71.71.61.614- Interest expenditure0.60.50.50.60.615=1-6General government balance4.01.61.50.81.016=1-7Primary balance4.62.12.01.41.517Cyclically adjusted balance5.0n.a.-0.5n.a.0.818One-offs2.50.00.00.00.019=17-18Structural balance2.5-1.2-0.5-0.60.820=19+14Structural primary balance3.1-0.70.00.01.4Variables (% GDP)20252026 
  
 
 
 
 
 
Table 7.3:  Debt developments 

Ireland 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 7.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

39 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)38.333.033.132.432.52=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-3.5-5.2-5.2-0.7-0.5Contributions**3Primary balance-4.6-2.1-2.0-1.4-1.54≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-2.2-3.8-3.8-0.4-0.1of which:5- Interest expenditure0.60.50.50.60.66- Real growth effect-1.0-3.7-3.6-0.3-0.17- Inflation effect-1.8-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.68'Stock-flow' adjustment3.30.70.61.11.120252026Variables2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR116.6126.0135.8147.42Interest expenditurebn EUR3.43.43.33.73Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-0.2-0.10.10.14Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.60.40.50.35National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.50.50.70.66One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR112.2121.9131.2142.68Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR9.69.411.49DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR0.7-0.13.310=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR8.99.48.111Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change8.0%7.7%6.2%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change9.8%5.1%6.5%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR-2.13.2-0.414 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn EUR-2.11.10.715=13/17Annual balance% GDP-0.40.5-0.116=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-0.40.20.117p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR524.7562.8635.7649.6Variables 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 7.5:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

Ireland 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 7.6:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

40 

202520261Taxes on production and imports0.10.02Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.-0.10.13Social contributions0.00.04Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total0.00.1#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 0.6-0.10.1of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.10.00.03=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.5-0.10.1   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.80.30.25   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.20.0-0.36   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.0-0.40.2#Variables (% GDP) 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 7.7:  RRF - Grants 

Ireland 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

41 

Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.00.00.00.10.10.120202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.020202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
   
 
8. GREECE 

Table 8.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

42 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change2.12.22.12.42.22Private consumption% change2.41.91.81.71.93Government consumption expenditure% change-2.61.41.50.72.54Gross fixed capital formation% change4.55.76.910.27.15Exports of goods and services% change1.02.21.84.52.46Imports of goods and services% change4.80.9-0.34.63.7Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps1.92.52.63.12.98- Change in inventoriespps2.1-0.7-1.4-0.20.09- Net exportspps-1.90.40.9-0.5-0.710Output gap% pot GDP2.01.52.61.53.011Employment % change0.92.51.10.60.912Unemployment rate%10.19.19.38.68.613Labour productivity% change1.1-0.31.01.81.314HICP % change3.03.02.82.22.315GDP deflator% change3.22.82.82.12.516Compensation of employees per head% change5.83.73.03.73.417Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-5.5n.a.-3.0n.a.-2.420252026Variables 
 
 
     
 
 
 
Table 8.2:  General government budgetary position 

Greece 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 8.3:  Debt developments 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

43 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue49.549.249.549.649.2of which:2- Taxes on production and imports17.017.016.316.816.43- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.11.110.711.610.611.14- Social contributions13.313.013.212.913.15- Other (residual)8.08.58.59.38.66=7+14Expenditure 48.248.548.549.849.0of which:7- Primary expenditure44.845.545.246.945.9of which:8- Compensation of employees 10.410.210.210.110.19- Intermediate consumption5.35.65.55.45.810- Social payments19.519.319.619.119.211- Subsidies1.41.31.11.31.112- Gross fixed capital formation3.65.74.46.94.213- Other4.53.44.54.15.614- Interest expenditure3.53.03.32.93.115=1-6General government balance1.20.61.1-0.10.316=1-7Primary balance4.73.64.32.83.417Cyclically adjusted balance0.2n.a.-0.3n.a.-1.318One-offs-0.2-0.2-0.20.00.019=17-18Structural balance0.30.0-0.1-0.9-1.320=19+14Structural primary balance3.83.03.22.01.8Variables (% GDP)202520262024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)154.2145.4147.6137.6142.12=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-10.1-8.2-6.6-7.8-5.5Contributions**3Primary balance-4.7-3.6-4.3-2.8-3.44≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-4.8-4.4-3.9-3.4-3.6of which:5- Interest expenditure3.53.03.32.93.16- Real growth effect-3.3-3.2-3.1-3.3-3.27- Inflation effect-5.0-4.2-4.1-3.0-3.68'Stock-flow' adjustment-0.6-0.21.6-1.61.520252026Variables 
     
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 8.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

Greece 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 8.5:  Defence expenditure and the national escape clause 

* The amount has a lower bound of 0 and an upper bound of 1.5 % of GDP. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

44 

2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR111.5114.2120.4127.52Interest expenditurebn EUR7.68.28.18.03Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.30.10.0-0.14Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR5.76.18.510.45National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.70.70.80.76One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.30.40.40.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR96.998.7102.5108.58Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR1.83.96.09DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR2.00.1-0.910=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR-0.23.86.811Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change-0.2%3.8%6.7%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change2.6%3.7%3.6%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR-2.70.13.114 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn EUR-2.7-2.60.515=13/17Annual balance% GDP-1.10.01.216=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-1.1-1.00.217p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR224.7236.7248.3260.4Variables2024202520261Total defence expenditure% GDP2.22.42.62of which: gross fixed capital formation% GDP0.20.50.63Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure*% GDP0.10.44Cumulated balance after flexibility% GDP-1.2-0.1 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
Table 8.6:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

Greece 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 8.7:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - expenditure side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

45 

202520261Taxes on production and imports0.00.02Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.0.2-0.33Social contributions-0.20.04Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total0.1-0.3#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202520261Compensation of employees0.00.02Intermediate consumption0.00.03Social payments0.00.04Interest expenditure0.00.05Subsidies0.00.06Gross fixed capital formation0.0-0.17Capital transfers0.00.08Other0.00.09=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8Total0.0-0.1#ESA2010 category(% of GDP) 
     
 
 
 
     
 
 
Table 8.8:  Fiscal stance 

Greece 

(1)  A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 8.9:  RRF - Grants 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

46 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 1.5-1.1-1.9of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-0.1-0.9-0.63=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure1.6-0.2-1.2   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure1.8-0.4-0.95   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.2-0.40.06   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.40.6-0.3#Variables (% GDP)Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.40.71.01.93.22Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.01.30.81.50.51.42.420202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.10.00.20.20.50.54Gross fixed capital formation0.00.10.30.20.60.91.95Capital transfers0.00.00.10.30.30.50.86=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.10.40.50.81.42.720202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
     
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
Table 8.10:  RRF - Loans 

Greece 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

47 

Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.90.91.71.00.72.42Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.020202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.14Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.020202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.10.40.71.11.7Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
     
 
9. SPAIN 

Table 9.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Due to its internal political situation, Spain had not tabled a draft 2026 budget for approval in the national parliament and thus 
no 2026 DBP was submitted to the Commission in October 2025. The Commission no longer requires euro area Member States to 
submit a DBP under the assumption of unchanged policies. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

48 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change3.52.92.32Private consumption% change3.13.42.33Government consumption expenditure% change2.91.71.84Gross fixed capital formation% change3.65.63.45Exports of goods and services% change3.23.62.36Imports of goods and services% change2.95.72.7Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps3.03.32.38- Change in inventoriespps0.30.00.09- Net exportspps0.2-0.5-0.110Output gap% pot GDP1.81.91.511Employment % change2.32.61.912Unemployment rate%11.410.49.813Labour productivity% change1.10.30.414HICP % change2.92.62.015GDP deflator% change2.92.52.116Compensation of employees per head% change4.63.52.817Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP4.33.93.9Variables 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
Table 9.2:  General government budgetary position 

Spain 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

49 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue42.343.043.5of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.111.211.23- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.12.512.913.14- Social contributions13.213.313.45- Other (residual)5.55.65.86=7+14Expenditure 45.545.645.6of which:7- Primary expenditure43.043.043.0of which:8- Compensation of employees 10.810.810.79- Intermediate consumption5.65.65.510- Social payments19.519.519.611- Subsidies1.21.11.112- Gross fixed capital formation2.72.93.113- Other3.23.13.114- Interest expenditure2.42.52.615=1-6General government balance-3.2-2.5-2.116=1-7Primary balance-0.80.00.517Cyclically adjusted balance-4.3-3.6-3.018One-offs-0.9-0.5-0.119=17-18Structural balance-3.4-3.2-2.820=19+14Structural primary balance-1.0-0.6-0.3Variables (% GDP) 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 9.3:  Debt developments 

Spain 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM) 

Table 9.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

50 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)101.6100.098.22=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-3.5-1.6-1.8Contributions**3Primary balance0.80.0-0.54≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-3.8-2.6-1.6of which:5- Interest expenditure2.42.52.66- Real growth effect-3.4-2.8-2.27- Inflation effect-2.9-2.4-2.08'Stock-flow' adjustment-0.51.00.3Variables2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR680.2725.0765.7800.02Interest expenditurebn EUR35.638.842.745.33Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-1.6-2.2-3.2-3.74Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR21.321.025.229.75National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR2.12.52.62.66One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR1.313.98.12.57=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR621.6651.0690.3723.68Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR29.439.333.49DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR2.410.14.010=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR27.029.229.311Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change4.3%4.5%4.3%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change5.3%3.7%3.5%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR-6.05.15.214 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn EUR-6.0-0.94.315=13/17Annual balance% GDP-0.40.30.316=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-0.4-0.10.217p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR1497.81594.31680.91754.6Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Spain 

Table 9.5:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

51 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 0.2-0.2-0.3of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.1-0.2-0.23=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.10.0-0.1   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.20.20.35   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.2-0.3-0.16   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.30.1-0.2#Variables (% GDP) 
 
 
   
 
10. FRANCE 

Table 10.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

52 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change1.20.70.71.00.92Private consumption% change1.10.50.40.90.63Government consumption expenditure% change1.41.91.00.20.14Gross fixed capital formation% change-1.1-0.4-0.12.21.05Exports of goods and services% change2.50.51.02.01.96Imports of goods and services% change-1.22.72.22.30.9Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps0.70.70.41.00.68- Change in inventoriespps-0.80.90.70.00.09- Net exportspps1.3-0.8-0.4-0.10.410Output gap% pot GDP0.2-0.4-0.3-0.6-0.511Employment % change0.80.2-0.10.20.012Unemployment rate%7.4n.a.7.6n.a.8.013Labour productivity% change0.40.60.80.80.914HICP % change2.31.01.01.31.315GDP deflator% change2.11.51.51.51.716Compensation of employees per head% change3.22.02.42.42.317Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP0.10.00.1-0.10.920252026Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 10.2:  General government budgetary position 

France 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 10.3:  Debt developments 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

53 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue51.452.152.252.352.5of which:2- Taxes on production and imports15.515.715.715.815.83- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.12.513.012.912.913.14- Social contributions16.516.716.717.016.85- Other (residual)6.96.76.96.66.86=7+14Expenditure 57.357.557.857.157.4of which:7- Primary expenditure55.255.355.454.754.9of which:8- Compensation of employees 12.412.312.312.212.39- Intermediate consumption5.55.75.75.65.610- Social payments25.625.925.925.425.711- Subsidies2.01.91.91.81.812- Gross fixed capital formation4.34.34.34.24.213- Other5.35.25.45.55.214- Interest expenditure2.12.22.32.42.515=1-6General government balance-5.8-5.4-5.5-4.7-4.916=1-7Primary balance-3.7-3.2-3.2-2.3-2.317Cyclically adjusted balance-5.9-5.1-5.3-4.4-4.618One-offs0.0-0.10.00.00.019=17-18Structural balance-5.9-5.1-5.3-4.3-4.620=19+14Structural primary balance-3.8-2.9-3.0-1.9-2.1Variables (% GDP)202520262024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)113.2115.9116.3117.9118.12=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)3.42.73.12.01.7Contributions**3Primary balance3.73.23.22.32.34≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.4-0.4-0.1-0.4-0.4of which:5- Interest expenditure2.12.22.32.42.56- Real growth effect-1.3-0.8-0.8-1.1-1.07- Inflation effect-2.2-1.7-1.6-1.7-1.98'Stock-flow' adjustment1.1-0.10.00.1-0.220252026Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
France 

Table 10.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 10.5:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

54 

2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR1607.41671.81723.31757.42Interest expenditurebn EUR52.960.268.877.43Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-4.1-2.9-0.92.34Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR12.110.811.27.65National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR3.42.93.83.96One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR1.50.90.90.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR1541.71600.01639.51666.18Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR58.339.526.69DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR7.324.014.810=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR51.015.511.911Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change3.3%1.0%0.7%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change3.8%0.8%1.2%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR-7.62.7-7.814 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn EUR-7.6-4.8-12.615=13/17Annual balance% GDP-0.30.1-0.316=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-0.3-0.2-0.417p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR2826.52919.92983.93061.8Variables202520261Taxes on production and imports0.30.12Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.0.30.13Social contributions0.20.24Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total0.80.5#ESA2010 category(% of GDP) 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
France 

Table 10.6:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 10.7:  RRF - Grants 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

55 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 0.00.81.2of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.10.00.13=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.00.81.1   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.30.81.05   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.20.00.16   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.10.00.1#Variables (% GDP)Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.50.40.20.10.10.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.20.30.40.30.10.220202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.20.10.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.10.10.10.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.20.20.10.10.10.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.30.30.20.10.10.020202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
11. CROATIA 

Table 11.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

* DBP numbers reflect forecasts of inflation measured by the national consumer price index (CPI). 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

56 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change3.83.23.22.72.92Private consumption% change6.03.54.23.23.83Government consumption expenditure% change7.36.84.73.63.04Gross fixed capital formation% change5.34.84.83.13.25Exports of goods and services% change1.61.31.51.82.46Imports of goods and services% change8.43.94.23.03.7Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps6.34.84.73.43.78- Change in inventoriespps1.3-0.20.00.00.09- Net exportspps-3.8-1.5-1.5-0.7-0.810Output gap% pot GDP2.31.81.30.90.611Employment % change5.61.92.11.81.512Unemployment rate%5.05.14.75.04.513Labour productivity% change-1.7n.a.1.1n.a.1.414HICP *% change4.03.74.32.82.815GDP deflator% change4.54.14.63.43.616Compensation of employees per head% change8.98.89.85.35.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-0.6n.a.-0.9n.a.-0.920252026Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 11.2:  General government budgetary position 

Croatia 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 11.3:  Debt developments 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

57 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue46.147.246.847.847.1of which:2- Taxes on production and imports19.219.219.219.219.23- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.98.07.98.17.94- Social contributions11.412.411.912.511.95- Other (residual)7.67.67.98.08.06=7+14Expenditure 48.050.249.650.849.9of which:7- Primary expenditure46.548.748.249.248.5of which:8- Compensation of employees 13.013.613.513.613.59- Intermediate consumption7.67.67.57.67.510- Social payments14.916.115.916.916.511- Subsidies1.61.41.41.31.312- Gross fixed capital formation5.25.75.75.75.613- Other4.14.34.24.14.214- Interest expenditure1.61.51.51.61.515=1-6General government balance-1.9-2.9-2.8-2.9-2.916=1-7Primary balance-0.4-1.4-1.4-1.3-1.417Cyclically adjusted balance-3.0n.a.-3.4n.a.-3.118One-offs0.00.00.00.00.019=17-18Structural balance-3.0-3.8-3.4-3.4-3.120=19+14Structural primary balance-1.4-2.2-2.0-1.7-1.7Variables (% GDP)202520262024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)57.456.356.256.056.12=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-3.6-1.0-1.2-0.4-0.1Contributions**3Primary balance0.41.41.41.31.44≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-3.1-2.4-2.7-1.7-1.9of which:5- Interest expenditure1.61.51.51.61.56- Real growth effect-2.2-1.7-1.7-1.5-1.57- Inflation effect-2.5-2.3-2.4-1.9-1.98'Stock-flow' adjustment-0.90.00.10.00.420252026Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 11.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

Croatia 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 11.5:  Defence expenditure and the national escape clause 

* The amount has a lower bound of 0 and an upper bound of 1.5 % of GDP. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

58 

2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR36.641.246.049.32Interest expenditurebn EUR1.31.31.41.43Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.00.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR2.51.82.53.05National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.40.20.30.56One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR32.437.941.844.58Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR5.53.92.69DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR-0.10.30.310=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR5.63.62.311Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change17.2%9.6%5.6%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change18.6%6.4%4.9%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR-0.41.20.314 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn EUR-0.40.81.115=13/17Annual balance% GDP-0.51.30.316=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-0.50.81.117p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR79.285.992.798.7Variables2021202220232024202520261Total defence expenditure% GDP1.01.01.31.51.51.52of which: gross fixed capital formation% GDP0.10.20.40.50.60.43Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure*% GDP0.50.54Cumulated balance after flexibility% GDP0.30.5 
  
 
 
 
     
 
 
Table 11.6:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

Croatia 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 11.7:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - expenditure side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

59 

202520261Taxes on production and imports0.10.12Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.0.00.03Social contributions0.10.14Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total0.20.2#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202520261Compensation of employees0.00.02Intermediate consumption-0.2-0.13Social payments0.00.04Interest expenditure-0.1-0.25Subsidies0.00.06Gross fixed capital formation0.00.07Capital transfers0.00.08Other0.00.09=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8Total-0.4-0.3#ESA2010 category(% of GDP) 
 
     
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
Table 11.8:  Fiscal stance 

Croatia 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 11.9:  RRF - Grants 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

Table 11.10:  RRF - Loans 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

60 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 -2.2-1.30.2of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)1.1-0.7-0.33=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-3.3-0.70.5   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-2.6-0.80.35   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.70.00.36   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.10.2-0.1#Variables (% GDP)Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.30.70.91.61.72Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.01.42.10.90.91.11.120202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.10.10.30.30.34Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.30.30.50.55Capital transfers0.00.00.20.30.40.80.96=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.20.50.61.31.420202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.10.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.00.00.00.90.92.72Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.020202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.10.40.30.75Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.20.30.66=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.10.60.61.320202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
     
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
     
 
12. ITALY 

Table 12.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

61 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.70.50.40.70.82Private consumption% change0.60.70.61.21.13Government consumption expenditure% change1.00.60.70.30.64Gross fixed capital formation% change0.52.52.61.32.15Exports of goods and services% change0.00.10.41.21.56Imports of goods and services% change-0.42.52.82.52.6Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps0.61.01.01.01.28- Change in inventoriespps0.00.20.10.0-0.19- Net exportspps0.1-0.7-0.7-0.4-0.310Output gap% pot GDP0.90.50.40.30.311Employment % change1.61.01.00.60.512Unemployment rate%6.56.06.25.86.113Labour productivity% change-0.9-0.5-0.60.10.314HICP % change1.11.81.71.71.315GDP deflator% change2.02.32.22.11.816Compensation of employees per head% change3.43.23.22.72.717Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP1.1n.a.1.2n.a.1.220252026Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 12.2:  General government budgetary position 

Italy 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 12.3:  Debt developments 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

62 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue47.147.647.747.948.1of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.114.114.114.014.13- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.15.615.115.315.115.24- Social contributions12.713.513.513.613.55- Other (residual)4.74.94.85.25.36=7+14Expenditure 50.450.650.750.750.9of which:7- Primary expenditure46.546.746.846.846.9of which:8- Compensation of employees 9.08.99.08.98.99- Intermediate consumption5.85.85.95.86.010- Social payments22.622.822.822.822.811- Subsidies1.71.51.41.51.512- Gross fixed capital formation3.63.73.73.73.913- Other3.94.04.04.13.814- Interest expenditure3.93.93.93.94.015=1-6General government balance-3.4-3.0-3.0-2.8-2.816=1-7Primary balance0.50.90.91.21.217Cyclically adjusted balance-3.9n.a.-3.2n.a.-2.918One-offs0.20.10.10.00.019=17-18Structural balance-4.0-3.4-3.3-2.9-2.920=19+14Structural primary balance-0.10.50.61.11.1Variables (% GDP)202520262024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)134.9136.2136.4137.4137.92=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)0.91.31.51.31.5Contributions**3Primary balance-0.5-0.9-0.9-1.2-1.24≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect0.40.30.50.30.5of which:5- Interest expenditure3.93.93.93.94.06- Real growth effect-0.9-0.6-0.5-0.9-1.17- Inflation effect-2.6-3.0-2.9-2.7-2.48'Stock-flow' adjustment1.01.91.92.22.220252026Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 12.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

Italy 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 12.5:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

63 

2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR1149.21109.21144.41178.42Interest expenditurebn EUR77.885.687.991.63Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-1.4-3.3-4.1-4.24Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR24.78.612.722.45National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR3.03.05.87.76One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.70.70.63.47=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR1044.41014.61041.41057.58Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR-29.826.916.19DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR-7.815.10.510=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR-22.111.815.611Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change-2.1%1.2%1.5%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change-1.9%1.3%1.6%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR-2.2-1.4-1.114 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn EUR-2.2-3.6-4.715=13/17Annual balance% GDP-0.1-0.10.016=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-0.1-0.2-0.217p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR2142.62199.62256.92315.2Variables202520261Taxes on production and imports0.00.052Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.-0.3-0.093Social contributions0.7-0.014Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total0.40.0#ESA2010 category(% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 12.6:  Fiscal stance 

Italy 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 12.7:  RRF - Grants 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

64 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 3.10.60.0of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.8-0.2-0.43=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure2.30.70.4   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.70.70.05   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.60.00.06   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure3.60.00.4#Variables (% GDP)Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.60.80.30.40.72Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.51.00.60.20.30.820202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.20.20.34Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.10.10.10.25Capital transfers0.00.10.60.60.00.00.16=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.20.60.70.10.20.420202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 12.8:  RRF - Loans 

Italy 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

65 

Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.91.11.10.71.01.02Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.020202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.10.10.14Gross fixed capital formation0.10.10.10.30.50.50.95Capital transfers0.00.00.00.10.20.20.36=4+5Total capital expenditure0.10.10.20.30.70.71.320202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
   
 
13. CYPRUS 

Table 13.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

66 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change3.93.23.43.12.62Private consumption% change4.02.32.42.12.03Government consumption expenditure% change1.66.24.73.33.64Gross fixed capital formation% change-2.22.65.65.54.65Exports of goods and services% change6.11.33.51.61.66Imports of goods and services% change5.00.93.71.61.9Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps2.13.03.42.92.88- Change in inventoriespps0.6-0.40.00.00.09- Net exportspps1.20.50.00.1-0.210Output gap% pot GDP3.32.32.92.22.111Employment % change2.01.71.31.71.212Unemployment rate%4.94.64.74.64.513Labour productivity% change1.91.42.01.31.414HICP % change2.30.70.92.11.515GDP deflator% change3.11.61.61.91.716Compensation of employees per head% change3.53.83.72.83.317Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-8.8n.a.-8.3n.a.-7.920252026Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 13.2:  General government budgetary position 

Cyprus 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 13.3:  Debt developments 

* End of period. 
*** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

67 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue42.445.142.944.742.9of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.513.713.113.813.13- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.10.911.511.011.111.14- Social contributions13.014.113.414.013.45- Other (residual)5.05.85.45.85.26=7+14Expenditure 38.341.739.641.639.9of which:7- Primary expenditure37.140.338.440.238.6of which:8- Compensation of employees 11.211.811.211.711.39- Intermediate consumption4.24.54.44.44.410- Social payments15.316.115.516.215.511- Subsidies0.50.40.40.30.312- Gross fixed capital formation2.83.53.23.53.513- Other3.14.03.74.13.714- Interest expenditure1.21.41.31.41.315=1-6General government balance4.13.43.33.03.016=1-7Primary balance5.44.74.64.44.317Cyclically adjusted balance2.5n.a.1.8n.a.2.018One-offs0.00.0-0.20.00.019=17-18Structural balance2.52.22.01.92.020=19+14Structural primary balance3.73.63.33.33.3Variables (% GDP)202520262024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)62.857.356.452.751.02=3+4+8Change in the ratio** (pps. of GDP)-8.4-7.7-6.4-4.6-5.4Contributions***3Primary balance-5.4-4.7-4.6-4.4-4.34≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-3.5-1.6-1.8-1.4-1.1of which:5- Interest expenditure1.21.41.31.41.36- Real growth effect-2.6-2.0-2.0-1.7-1.47- Inflation effect-2.1-1.0-1.0-1.0-0.98'Stock-flow' adjustment0.4-1.40.01.10.020252026Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 13.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

Cyprus 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 13.5:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

68 

2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR13.213.314.515.22Interest expenditurebn EUR0.40.40.50.53Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.00.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.30.30.50.55National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.10.10.10.16One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.10.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR12.512.613.514.28Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR0.10.90.79DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR-0.10.0-0.210=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR0.20.90.911Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change1.7%6.8%6.5%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change2.7%6.0%5.0%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR-0.10.10.214 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn EUR-0.10.00.215=13/17Annual balance% GDP-0.40.30.516=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-0.4-0.10.517p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR32.434.836.538.2Variables202520261Taxes on production and imports0.00.02Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.0.1-0.43Social contributions0.00.04Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total0.1-0.4#ESA2010 category(% of GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
Table 13.6:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - expenditure side 

Cyprus 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 13.7:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

69 

202520261Compensation of employees0.00.02Intermediate consumption0.1-0.13Social payments0.00.04Interest expenditure-0.1-0.15Subsidies0.10.26Gross fixed capital formation0.7-0.37Capital transfers0.00.28Other0.00.09=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8Total0.8-0.2#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 2.1-0.8-0.4of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.0-0.40.03=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure2.1-0.4-0.3   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.70.1-0.35   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.3-0.2-0.26   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure1.1-0.20.2#Variables (% GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 13.8:  RRF - Grants 

Cyprus 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

Table 13.9:  RRF - Loans 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

70 

Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.20.30.50.90.92Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.50.30.00.40.41.320202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.10.10.10.20.24Gross fixed capital formation0.10.10.10.10.20.40.45Capital transfers0.00.00.00.10.20.30.26=4+5Total capital expenditure0.10.10.10.20.40.70.620202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.10.00.00.00.00.32Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.020202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.34Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.15Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.120202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
14. LATVIA 

Table 14.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

71 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.01.11.02.11.72Private consumption% change0.10.20.31.91.83Government consumption expenditure% change-0.44.41.43.00.24Gross fixed capital formation% change-7.03.710.54.53.85Exports of goods and services% change0.11.90.52.42.36Imports of goods and services% change-1.83.25.43.22.6Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps-1.72.02.82.82.08- Change in inventoriespps0.40.01.50.00.09- Net exportspps1.3-0.9-3.3-0.7-0.310Output gap% pot GDP-0.7-1.3-0.5-0.90.111Employment % change-1.5-0.2-1.3-0.2-0.612Unemployment rate%6.96.96.86.36.613Labour productivity% change1.41.32.32.32.314HICP % change1.33.53.62.32.215GDP deflator% change2.13.34.82.53.616Compensation of employees per head% change10.57.58.36.06.017Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-0.3n.a.-2.5n.a.-1.720252026Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 14.2:  General government budgetary position 

Latvia 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 14.3:  Debt developments 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

72 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue43.844.644.343.744.2of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.514.814.414.714.43- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.9.28.78.78.78.54- Social contributions11.612.111.912.312.05- Other (residual)8.59.09.38.09.36=7+14Expenditure 45.647.547.547.047.6of which:7- Primary expenditure44.546.346.245.646.3of which:8- Compensation of employees 13.213.113.212.713.09- Intermediate consumption6.16.66.36.26.210- Social payments14.815.415.115.615.111- Subsidies0.90.80.90.80.912- Gross fixed capital formation6.36.47.36.37.713- Other3.14.03.44.03.414- Interest expenditure1.11.21.21.41.415=1-6General government balance-1.8-2.9-3.1-3.3-3.516=1-7Primary balance-0.7-1.7-1.9-1.9-2.117Cyclically adjusted balance-1.5n.a.-2.9n.a.-3.518One-offs0.00.00.00.00.019=17-18Structural balance-1.5-2.4-2.9-3.0-3.520=19+14Structural primary balance-0.4-1.2-1.7-1.6-2.1Variables (% GDP)202520262024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)46.648.948.350.649.92=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)2.22.11.71.71.6Contributions**3Primary balance0.71.71.91.92.14≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect0.2-0.7-1.3-0.8-1.1of which:5- Interest expenditure1.11.21.21.41.46- Real growth effect0.0-0.5-0.4-1.0-0.87- Inflation effect-0.9-1.5-2.1-1.2-1.68'Stock-flow' adjustment1.21.21.20.60.620252026Variables 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 14.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

Latvia 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 14.5:  Defence expenditure and the national escape clause 

* The amount has a lower bound of 0 and an upper bound of 1.5 % of GDP. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 14.6:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

73 

2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR17.218.420.321.42Interest expenditurebn EUR0.30.40.50.63Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.00.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.70.81.31.55National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.20.10.20.36One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR16.017.118.219.18Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR1.11.20.89DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR0.30.0-0.110=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR0.81.21.011Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change4.9%6.8%5.3%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change9.1%5.9%3.6%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR-0.70.10.314 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn EUR-0.7-0.5-0.215=13/17Annual balance% GDP-1.60.30.716=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-1.6-1.2-0.517p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR39.640.442.745.0Variables2021202220232024202520261Total defence expenditure% GDP2.52.42.62.73.34.22of which: gross fixed capital formation% GDP1.00.40.70.91.42.13Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure*% GDP0.81.54Cumulated balance after flexibility% GDP-2.0-2.0202520261Taxes on production and imports0.30.22Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.-0.4-0.43Social contributions0.40.04Property income0.00.15Capital taxes0.00.06Other-0.10.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total0.2-0.1#ESA2010 category(% of GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 14.7:  Fiscal stance 

Latvia 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 14.8:  RRF - Grants 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

74 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 -0.5-1.5-0.5of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.0-1.2-0.23=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-0.5-0.3-0.3   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.6-0.40.05   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.70.1-0.36   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.30.0-0.1#Variables (% GDP)Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.00.40.91.81.52Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.70.60.00.90.72.020202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.30.50.64Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.30.61.21.05Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.30.61.21.020202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
 
   
 
 
 
   
 
15. LITHUANIA 

Table 15.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

75 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change3.02.62.43.33.02Private consumption% change3.12.62.64.65.63Government consumption expenditure% change1.60.70.60.10.14Gross fixed capital formation% change-1.77.35.15.24.05Exports of goods and services% change2.63.23.22.92.66Imports of goods and services% change2.46.06.43.74.1Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps1.64.42.73.74.08- Change in inventoriespps1.21.21.7-0.10.09- Net exportspps0.2-1.7-1.9-0.4-1.010Output gap% pot GDP-1.3-1.2-1.2-0.4-0.311Employment % change1.50.1-0.20.20.012Unemployment rate%7.17.17.16.86.813Labour productivity% change1.52.52.63.03.014HICP % change0.93.53.43.22.815GDP deflator% change3.23.73.53.33.916Compensation of employees per head% change7.28.77.97.37.017Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP4.7n.a.3.1n.a.2.720252026Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
Table 15.2:  General government budgetary position 

Lithuania 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 15.3:  Debt developments 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

76 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue38.139.339.140.139.8of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.611.811.712.011.93- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.10.610.810.811.511.44- Social contributions11.011.411.411.511.45- Other (residual)4.95.35.25.15.06=7+14Expenditure 39.441.641.342.842.3of which:7- Primary expenditure38.640.640.441.641.2of which:8- Compensation of employees 11.611.811.711.811.79- Intermediate consumption4.44.84.75.15.010- Social payments15.316.416.316.716.511- Subsidies0.30.30.30.30.312- Gross fixed capital formation4.24.84.85.65.613- Other2.92.52.52.12.114- Interest expenditure0.81.01.01.21.215=1-6General government balance-1.3-2.2-2.2-2.7-2.516=1-7Primary balance-0.5-1.2-1.3-1.4-1.417Cyclically adjusted balance-0.8n.a.-1.8n.a.-2.418One-offs0.00.00.10.00.019=17-18Structural balance-0.8-1.7-1.9-2.5-2.420=19+14Structural primary balance0.0-0.7-0.9-1.3-1.3Variables (% GDP)202520262024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)38.039.939.845.144.72=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)0.91.71.85.14.9Contributions**3Primary balance0.51.21.31.41.44≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.4-1.3-1.1-1.3-1.4of which:5- Interest expenditure0.81.01.01.21.26- Real growth effect-1.1-1.0-0.9-1.2-1.17- Inflation effect-1.1-1.4-1.3-1.3-1.58'Stock-flow' adjustment1.71.81.75.05.020252026Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 15.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

Lithuania 

* The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2024. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 15.5:  Defence expenditure and the national escape clause 

* The amount has a lower bound of 0 and an upper bound of 1.5 % of GDP. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

77 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR31.134.637.92Interest expenditurebn EUR0.60.81.03Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR1.01.51.85National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.10.10.26One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR29.332.134.88Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR2.82.79DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR0.10.310=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR2.72.411Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change9.1%7.4%12Recommended net expenditure growth% change6.1%5.2%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR0.90.714 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation*bn EUR0.91.615=13/17Annual balance% GDP1.10.816=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP1.11.817p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR79.083.789.6Variables2021202220232024202520261Total defence expenditure% GDP1.61.72.32.63.13.52of which: gross fixed capital formation% GDP0.40.40.91.01.01.13Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure*% GDP1.51.54Cumulated balance after flexibility% GDP-0.40.3 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 15.6:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

Lithuania 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 15.7:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

78 

202520261Taxes on production and imports0.40.42Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.-0.20.13Social contributions0.00.04Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.0-0.17=1+2+3+4+5+6Total0.20.4#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 -1.8-1.3-0.6of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-0.2-0.5-0.33=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-1.6-0.8-0.3   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-1.4-0.9-0.25   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.00.0-0.56   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.20.10.5#Variables (% GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 15.8:  RRF - Grants 

Lithuania 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

Table 15.9:  RRF - Loans 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

79 

Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.10.30.51.11.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.50.00.80.20.60.820202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.10.30.14Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.10.20.40.80.75Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.26=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.10.20.40.80.920202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.00.00.10.80.00.92Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.020202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.30.44Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.30.35Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.16=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.30.520202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
16. LUXEMBOURG 

Table 16.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

80 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.41.00.92.01.92Private consumption% change3.21.91.42.01.83Government consumption expenditure% change4.94.85.22.82.84Gross fixed capital formation% change-2.71.9-1.87.92.85Exports of goods and services% change-12.22.40.92.92.16Imports of goods and services% change-13.63.31.23.52.3Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps1.51.91.22.51.68- Change in inventoriespps0.1-0.20.0-0.30.09- Net exportspps-1.3-0.6-0.2-0.20.310Output gap% pot GDP-3.6-3.4-3.8-2.6-3.211Employment % change1.01.01.01.51.412Unemployment rate%6.46.56.66.46.713Labour productivity% change-0.60.0-0.10.50.514HICP % change2.32.22.31.41.715GDP deflator% change4.63.03.03.13.016Compensation of employees per head% change3.54.24.12.52.817Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-4.0n.a.-4.4n.a.-3.520252026Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 16.2:  General government budgetary position 

Luxembourg 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 16.3:  Debt developments 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

81 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue47.747.447.447.948.0of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.311.511.411.711.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.19.118.418.618.518.84- Social contributions12.112.512.312.812.85- Other (residual)5.25.05.14.95.06=7+14Expenditure 46.848.248.248.348.6of which:7- Primary expenditure46.547.847.947.848.1of which:8- Compensation of employees 11.111.711.711.611.89- Intermediate consumption4.64.64.64.64.610- Social payments19.520.020.020.120.211- Subsidies1.31.21.11.21.112- Gross fixed capital formation4.64.94.85.04.913- Other5.45.45.55.35.514- Interest expenditure0.30.40.40.50.515=1-6General government balance0.9-0.8-0.8-0.4-0.516=1-7Primary balance1.2-0.4-0.40.0-0.117Cyclically adjusted balance2.6n.a.1.0n.a.0.918One-offs0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.019=17-18Structural balance2.60.81.00.80.920=19+14Structural primary balance2.91.21.31.31.4Variables (% GDP)202520262024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)26.326.826.827.027.12=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)1.60.50.60.30.2Contributions**3Primary balance-1.20.40.40.00.14≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.9-0.6-0.6-0.8-0.8of which:5- Interest expenditure0.30.40.40.50.56- Real growth effect-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.5-0.57- Inflation effect-1.1-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.88'Stock-flow' adjustment3.60.70.71.11.020252026Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 16.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

Luxembourg 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 16.5:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

82 

2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR38.140.443.245.72Interest expenditurebn EUR0.20.30.30.43Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-0.10.10.10.14Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.10.20.20.25National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.00.10.10.16One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR37.839.842.544.88Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR2.02.72.39DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR-0.30.00.510=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR2.32.81.811Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change6.2%7.0%4.3%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change8.0%5.8%4.7%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR-0.70.5-0.214 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn EUR-0.7-0.2-0.415=13/17Annual balance% GDP-0.80.5-0.216=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-0.8-0.3-0.417p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR82.186.289.694.1Variables202520261Taxes on production and imports0.20.02Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.-0.6-0.13Social contributions0.00.44Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.30.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total0.00.3#ESA2010 category(% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 16.6:  Fiscal stance 

Luxembourg 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 16.7:  RRF - Grants 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

83 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 0.0-1.00.2of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-0.10.00.03=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.1-1.00.2   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.0-0.80.25   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.1-0.10.06   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.00.00.0#Variables (% GDP)Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.00.00.00.10.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.020202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.10.10.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.10.10.020202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
17. HUNGARY 

Table 17.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

84 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.60.42.32Private consumption% change5.63.53.73Government consumption expenditure% change-1.81.11.64Gross fixed capital formation% change-9.9-5.42.25Exports of goods and services% change-0.9-0.43.86Imports of goods and services% change-3.90.94.7Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps-0.10.82.88- Change in inventoriespps-1.60.50.09- Net exportspps2.3-0.9-0.510Output gap% pot GDP-1.1-1.8-0.611Employment % change0.00.20.212Unemployment rate%4.54.54.413Labour productivity% change0.60.22.114HICP % change3.74.53.615GDP deflator% change7.66.44.316Compensation of employees per head% change12.69.17.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP2.00.80.5Variables 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
Table 17.2:  General government budgetary position 

Hungary 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

85 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue42.142.842.1of which:2- Taxes on production and imports17.117.217.13- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.67.46.84- Social contributions10.510.610.85- Other (residual)7.07.57.46=7+14Expenditure 47.147.447.2of which:7- Primary expenditure42.343.443.3of which:8- Compensation of employees 10.310.711.29- Intermediate consumption8.48.58.510- Social payments12.012.111.811- Subsidies2.22.01.812- Gross fixed capital formation4.34.14.213- Other5.15.95.814- Interest expenditure4.94.03.915=1-6General government balance-5.0-4.6-5.116=1-7Primary balance-0.1-0.6-1.217Cyclically adjusted balance-4.5-3.8-4.818One-offs0.00.00.019=17-18Structural balance-4.5-3.8-4.820=19+14Structural primary balance0.40.2-0.9Variables (% GDP) 
     
 
 
Table 17.3:  Debt developments 

Hungary 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM) 

Table 17.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

86 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)73.573.773.92=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)0.30.20.2Contributions**3Primary balance0.10.61.24≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.6-0.7-0.7of which:5- Interest expenditure4.94.03.96- Real growth effect-0.4-0.3-1.67- Inflation effect-5.1-4.4-3.08'Stock-flow' adjustment0.80.3-0.4Variables2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn NAC37248.438398.141203.843777.22Interest expenditurebn NAC3533.93970.53467.13626.03Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn NAC-38.3-25.9-26.3-29.24Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn NAC686.6597.91210.41349.25National co-financing of EU programmesbn NAC193.4193.8402.1483.86One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn NAC0.00.00.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn NAC32872.833661.836150.638347.48Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn NAC789.02488.82196.89DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn NAC-137.5-57.4-488.010=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn NAC926.52546.22684.811Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change2.8%7.6%7.4%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change4.6%4.3%4.0%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn NAC-585.61098.81238.814 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn NAC-585.6513.11751.915=13/17Annual balance% GDP-0.71.31.316=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-0.70.61.917p.m. Nominal GDP  bn NAC75292.781447.786958.192786.0Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Hungary 

Table 17.5:  Defence expenditure and the national escape clause 

* The amount has a lower bound of 0 and an upper bound of 1.5 % of GDP. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 17.6:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 17.7:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

87 

2021202220232024202520261Total defence expenditure% GDP1.01.41.92.22.02.32of which: gross fixed capital formation% GDP0.10.30.60.70.60.83Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure*% GDP1.01.34Cumulated balance after flexibility% GDP-0.50.5202520261Taxes on production and imports0.1n.a.2Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.-0.2n.a.3Social contributions0.0n.a.4Property income0.0n.a.5Capital taxes0.0n.a.6Other0.0n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total-0.1n.a.#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 3.2-0.5-0.6of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.2-0.6-0.13=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure3.00.2-0.5   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure1.80.1-0.75   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.50.60.16   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.6-0.50.0#Variables (% GDP) 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
   
 
18. MALTA 

Table 18.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

88 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change6.84.14.04.13.82Private consumption% change6.23.73.63.83.83Government consumption expenditure% change9.26.66.94.64.14Gross fixed capital formation% change3.610.86.0-0.91.05Exports of goods and services% change6.24.73.64.53.66Imports of goods and services% change5.36.24.33.53.1Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps5.04.83.92.42.68- Change in inventoriespps-0.20.00.00.00.09- Net exportspps2.0-0.70.01.81.210Output gap% pot GDP1.4-0.20.0-1.2-0.911Employment % change5.04.03.73.82.912Unemployment rate%3.12.83.02.82.913Labour productivity% change1.70.00.20.40.814HICP % change2.42.42.42.22.115GDP deflator% change3.32.82.72.82.216Compensation of employees per head% change7.06.95.94.64.817Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP8.0n.a.6.3n.a.6.720252026Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 18.2:  General government budgetary position 

Malta 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 18.3:  Debt developments 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

89 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue34.033.633.332.833.0of which:2- Taxes on production and imports9.29.49.29.39.33- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.14.814.114.113.913.94- Social contributions5.15.15.05.25.15- Other (residual)4.95.04.94.44.76=7+14Expenditure 37.537.036.435.635.7of which:7- Primary expenditure36.335.835.234.334.4of which:8- Compensation of employees 9.79.99.910.010.09- Intermediate consumption7.48.17.97.87.710- Social payments7.97.97.87.87.711- Subsidies2.22.22.21.91.812- Gross fixed capital formation3.24.33.73.53.613- Other5.83.43.73.33.614- Interest expenditure1.21.21.21.31.315=1-6General government balance-3.5-3.3-3.2-2.8-2.816=1-7Primary balance-2.4-2.1-2.0-1.6-1.417Cyclically adjusted balance-4.2n.a.-3.2n.a.-2.318One-offs0.00.00.00.00.019=17-18Structural balance-4.2-3.2-3.2-2.3-2.320=19+14Structural primary balance-3.0-2.0-2.0-1.0-1.0Variables (% GDP)202520262024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)46.247.147.047.347.22=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-0.80.90.80.20.2Contributions**3Primary balance2.42.12.01.61.44≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-3.1-1.8-1.7-1.8-1.3of which:5- Interest expenditure1.21.21.21.31.36- Real growth effect-2.9-1.8-1.7-1.9-1.77- Inflation effect-1.4-1.2-1.2-1.2-1.08'Stock-flow' adjustment-0.10.60.50.40.120252026Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 18.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

Malta 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 18.5:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

90 

2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR7.58.69.09.32Interest expenditurebn EUR0.20.30.30.33Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.00.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.20.20.30.35National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.10.00.10.16One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR7.08.28.48.68Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR1.10.20.39DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR0.0-0.2-0.110=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR1.10.40.411Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change16.2%4.4%4.6%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change7.4%6.0%5.8%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR0.6-0.1-0.114 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn EUR0.60.50.415=13/17Annual balance% GDP2.7-0.5-0.416=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP2.72.01.517p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR20.923.124.626.1Variables202520261Taxes on production and imports0.00.02Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.-0.6-0.23Social contributions0.00.04Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other-0.3-0.37=1+2+3+4+5+6Total-0.8-0.5#ESA2010 category(% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 18.6:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - expenditure side 

Malta 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 18.7:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

91 

202520261Compensation of employees0.00.02Intermediate consumption0.30.23Social payments0.00.04Interest expenditure0.1-0.15Subsidies0.00.06Gross fixed capital formation-1.10.07Capital transfers0.00.08Other0.00.09=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8Total-0.70.1#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 -1.80.90.9of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.2-0.4-0.13=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-2.01.30.9   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.6-0.70.55   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.0-0.10.36   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-1.42.10.2#Variables (% GDP) 
 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 18.8:  RRF - Grants 

Malta 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

92 

Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.00.30.30.20.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.20.00.30.30.20.020202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.10.10.10.10.15Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.10.10.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.10.20.20.20.120202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
   
 
19. THE NETHERLANDS 

Table 19.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

93 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change1.11.61.71.41.32Private consumption% change1.12.11.62.31.63Government consumption expenditure% change3.61.32.51.71.84Gross fixed capital formation% change-0.4-0.20.82.60.95Exports of goods and services% change-0.21.41.91.51.46Imports of goods and services% change0.10.92.42.71.8Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps1.31.41.52.21.48- Change in inventoriespps0.0-0.10.30.10.19- Net exportspps-0.20.5-0.1-0.6-0.110Output gap% pot GDP-1.0-0.9-0.9-0.9-1.111Employment % change1.00.50.40.60.312Unemployment rate%3.73.83.94.04.113Labour productivity% change0.11.11.30.91.014HICP % change3.22.93.02.12.515GDP deflator% change5.74.13.22.53.316Compensation of employees per head% change6.65.84.54.93.817Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP8.9n.a.8.9n.a.9.420252026Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
Table 19.2:  General government budgetary position 

The Netherlands 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 19.3:  Debt developments 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

94 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue43.542.443.142.743.2of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.211.211.211.311.33- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.14.914.014.714.315.14- Social contributions12.613.012.612.812.25- Other (residual)4.74.24.64.34.66=7+14Expenditure 44.444.345.045.445.9of which:7- Primary expenditure43.743.644.344.645.1of which:8- Compensation of employees 8.78.78.78.78.69- Intermediate consumption6.76.46.76.36.610- Social payments21.021.521.521.821.811- Subsidies1.41.41.21.51.212- Gross fixed capital formation3.33.23.43.33.513- Other2.72.42.73.03.414- Interest expenditure0.70.70.70.80.715=1-6General government balance-0.9-1.9-1.9-2.7-2.716=1-7Primary balance-0.2-1.2-1.2-1.9-1.917Cyclically adjusted balance-0.3n.a.-1.3n.a.-2.018One-offs0.0-0.10.0-0.7-0.719=17-18Structural balance-0.3-1.3-1.3-1.5-1.320=19+14Structural primary balance0.4-0.6-0.6-0.7-0.6Variables (% GDP)202520262024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)43.744.845.247.947.92=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-2.11.11.43.02.7Contributions**3Primary balance0.21.21.21.91.94≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-2.2-1.7-1.3-0.9-1.2of which:5- Interest expenditure0.70.70.70.80.76- Real growth effect-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.67- Inflation effect-2.5-1.7-1.3-1.1-1.48'Stock-flow' adjustment-0.11.61.62.02.020252026Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 19.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

The Netherlands 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 19.5:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
The incremental impact of discretionary fiscal policy measures as summarised in this table differs from the impact of 
discretionary fiscal policy measures used to calculate net expenditure growth in table 3 (line 10) of the Draft Budgetary 
Plan (page 12). This is the case because the two sets of figures are provided by two different government institutions, which 
differ in their assessments of some measures’ impact. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

95 

2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR462.1498.5529.8565.02Interest expenditurebn EUR7.17.98.49.23Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-0.60.21.01.74Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR2.31.91.61.65National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.30.30.30.36One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.05.00.68.57=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR452.9483.2517.9543.68Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR30.334.625.89DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR2.2-0.52.310=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR28.135.123.511Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change6.2%7.3%4.5%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change6.9%3.5%3.3%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR-3.118.26.414 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn EUR-3.115.121.515=13/17Annual balance% GDP-0.31.50.516=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-0.31.31.717p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR1050.11122.51177.51231.7Variables202520261Taxes on production and imports0.00.12Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.-0.20.23Social contributions0.1-0.24Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total0.00.2#ESA2010 category(% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 19.6:  Fiscal stance 

The Netherlands 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 19.7:  RRF - Grants 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

96 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 0.6-0.90.2of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.10.00.03=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.6-1.00.2   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.4-0.60.15   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.0-0.20.06   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.2-0.20.1#Variables (% GDP)Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.00.00.10.10.22Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.00.00.00.10.10.020202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.10.10.10.10.10.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.020202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
20. AUSTRIA 

Table 20.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

In spring 2025, Austria submitted a DBP for both in 2025 and 2026. The DBP was positively assessed by the Commission. Please 
see: Commission opinion of 23.6.2025 on the Draft Budgetary Plan of Austria, C(2025)4106 final 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

97 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change-0.70.30.92Private consumption% change1.00.70.73Government consumption expenditure% change3.82.91.04Gross fixed capital formation% change-4.31.51.75Exports of goods and services% change-2.3-0.31.76Imports of goods and services% change-2.61.62.0Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps0.21.41.08- Change in inventoriespps-1.30.00.09- Net exportspps0.1-1.0-0.110Output gap% pot GDP-1.1-1.3-1.211Employment % change0.10.10.412Unemployment rate%5.25.65.513Labour productivity% change-0.70.20.414HICP % change2.93.52.415GDP deflator% change4.13.62.816Compensation of employees per head% change7.23.72.417Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP1.51.01.4Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
Table 20.2:  General government budgetary position 

Austria 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

98 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue50.550.850.8of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.714.014.13- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.14.013.913.94- Social contributions16.016.216.25- Other (residual)6.86.76.66=7+14Expenditure 55.255.254.9of which:7- Primary expenditure53.753.553.1of which:8- Compensation of employees 11.311.511.49- Intermediate consumption7.06.96.810- Social payments24.224.924.911- Subsidies1.91.71.612- Gross fixed capital formation3.94.04.013- Other5.44.64.414- Interest expenditure1.51.71.815=1-6General government balance-4.7-4.4-4.116=1-7Primary balance-3.2-2.7-2.317Cyclically adjusted balance-4.0-3.7-3.418One-offs0.00.00.019=17-18Structural balance-4.0-3.7-3.420=19+14Structural primary balance-2.6-2.0-1.6Variables (% GDP) 
   
 
 
 
Table 20.3:  Debt developments 

Austria 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM) 

Table 20.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

* The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2024. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

99 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)79.981.482.82=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)2.11.51.4Contributions**3Primary balance3.22.72.34≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.1-1.3-1.1of which:5- Interest expenditure1.51.71.86- Real growth effect0.5-0.2-0.77- Inflation effect-3.1-2.7-2.28'Stock-flow' adjustment0.10.10.2Variables202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR272.7283.3292.22Interest expenditurebn EUR7.38.59.73Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.10.60.64Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.80.81.05National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR1.01.11.26One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR263.5272.3279.78Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR8.87.49DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR2.91.710=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR5.95.711Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change2.3%2.1%12Recommended net expenditure growth% change2.6%2.2%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR-0.9-0.314 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation*bn EUR-0.9-1.215=13/17Annual balance% GDP-0.20.016=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-0.2-0.217p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR494.1513.3532.4Variables 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Austria 

Table 20.5:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 20.6:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

100 

202520261Taxes on production and imports0.60.22Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.-0.10.13Social contributions0.10.04Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total0.60.3#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 -1.91.20.8of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.10.00.03=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-2.11.20.8   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-1.60.90.65   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.20.00.06   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.30.30.3#Variables (% GDP) 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
21. POLAND 

Table 21.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

101 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change3.03.23.52Private consumption% change3.03.53.13Government consumption expenditure% change8.74.73.64Gross fixed capital formation% change-0.93.77.45Exports of goods and services% change2.02.12.36Imports of goods and services% change4.53.43.2Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps3.23.63.88- Change in inventoriespps1.00.20.09- Net exportspps-1.2-0.5-0.310Output gap% pot GDP-0.8-0.50.111Employment % change-0.7-0.20.112Unemployment rate%2.93.13.113Labour productivity% change3.83.43.314HICP % change3.73.42.915GDP deflator% change3.83.63.116Compensation of employees per head% change10.48.66.517Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP0.1-0.3-0.7Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 21.2:  General government budgetary position 

Poland 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

102 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue43.043.445.7of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.414.314.33- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.88.28.64- Social contributions15.215.415.45- Other (residual)5.55.67.56=7+14Expenditure 49.450.252.0of which:7- Primary expenditure47.247.749.3of which:8- Compensation of employees 11.711.911.99- Intermediate consumption6.86.86.810- Social payments19.119.920.011- Subsidies1.20.70.712- Gross fixed capital formation4.85.05.413- Other3.63.54.514- Interest expenditure2.22.52.715=1-6General government balance-6.5-6.8-6.316=1-7Primary balance-4.3-4.3-3.617Cyclically adjusted balance-6.1-6.5-6.318One-offs-0.1-0.10.019=17-18Structural balance-6.0-6.5-6.320=19+14Structural primary balance-3.8-4.0-3.6Variables (% GDP) 
   
 
 
Table 21.3:  Debt developments 

Poland 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM) 

Table 21.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

103 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)55.159.564.92=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)5.64.45.4Contributions**3Primary balance4.34.33.64≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.0-1.1-0.9of which:5- Interest expenditure2.22.52.76- Real growth effect-1.4-1.7-1.97- Inflation effect-1.8-1.9-1.78'Stock-flow' adjustment2.31.22.7Variables2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn NAC1600.41806.31961.32166.92Interest expenditurebn NAC70.880.696.1112.53Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn NAC-0.4-0.10.40.34Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn NAC46.034.043.6124.75National co-financing of EU programmesbn NAC14.09.214.213.46One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn NAC0.02.63.20.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn NAC1470.01680.01803.81915.88Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn NAC210.0123.8112.19DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn NAC15.04.837.110=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn NAC195.0119.075.011Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change13.3%7.1%4.2%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change12.5%6.3%4.4%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn NAC11.313.2-4.414 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn NAC11.324.520.015=13/17Annual balance% GDP0.30.3-0.116=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP0.30.60.517p.m. Nominal GDP  bn NAC3415.33653.43907.14166.0Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 21.5:  Defence expenditure and the national escape clause 

Poland 

(*) The amount has a lower bound of 0 and an upper bound of 1.5 % of GDP. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 21.6:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 21.7:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

104 

2021202220232024202520261Total defence expenditure% GDP1.61.62.03.03.43.42of which: gross fixed capital formation% GDP0.30.10.71.11.31.33Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure*% GDP1.51.54Cumulated balance after flexibility% GDP-0.9-1.0202520261Taxes on production and imports-0.20.42Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.0.30.53Social contributions0.00.04Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.00.27=1+2+3+4+5+6Total0.21.0#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 -1.8-0.4-1.0of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.4-0.2-1.93=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-2.2-0.20.9   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-2.2-0.20.55   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.10.00.46   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.10.00.0#Variables (% GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
   
 
22. PORTUGAL 

Table 22.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

105 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change2.12.01.92.32.22Private consumption% change3.03.43.52.72.63Government consumption expenditure% change1.51.51.61.21.74Gross fixed capital formation% change4.23.63.35.54.45Exports of goods and services% change3.11.51.21.81.56Imports of goods and services% change4.84.04.03.62.8Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps2.93.23.13.12.88- Change in inventoriespps-0.10.10.00.00.09- Net exportspps-0.7-1.2-1.2-0.9-0.510Output gap% pot GDP0.7-0.10.2-0.20.211Employment % change0.71.71.70.91.112Unemployment rate%6.56.16.36.06.213Labour productivity% change1.40.30.21.41.114HICP % change2.72.42.22.12.015GDP deflator% change4.83.63.22.52.816Compensation of employees per head% change7.55.45.15.33.817Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP2.8n.a.2.1n.a.2.020252026Variables 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
Table 22.2:  General government budgetary position 

Portugal 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

106 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue43.144.244.143.844.6of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.414.414.614.414.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.10.29.910.09.710.24- Social contributions12.412.412.512.512.55- Other (residual)6.17.57.07.27.46=7+14Expenditure 42.643.944.143.744.9of which:7- Primary expenditure40.541.842.041.642.6of which:8- Compensation of employees 10.510.610.710.610.89- Intermediate consumption5.25.25.35.05.310- Social payments18.018.018.218.118.211- Subsidies0.70.50.50.40.612- Gross fixed capital formation2.73.33.53.43.813- Other3.44.23.84.14.014- Interest expenditure2.12.12.12.12.215=1-6General government balance0.50.30.00.1-0.316=1-7Primary balance2.62.42.22.12.017Cyclically adjusted balance0.1n.a.-0.1n.a.-0.418One-offs0.0-0.1-0.10.00.019=17-18Structural balance0.10.50.10.2-0.420=19+14Structural primary balance2.22.62.22.31.8Variables (% GDP)20252026 
     
 
 
 
 
 
Table 22.3:  Debt developments 

Portugal 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 22.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

* The change in net expenditure in 2024 has been corrected by EUR 37.1 m for a break in the series of total expenditure, related 
to the reclassification of SATA Air Açores and SATA Gestão de Aeródromos (SGA) into general government from 2024 onwards. 
** The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in 
the recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
*** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

107 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)93.690.291.387.889.22=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-3.3-3.3-2.3-2.4-2.0Contributions**3Primary balance-2.6-2.4-2.2-2.1-2.04≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-4.2-2.9-2.4-2.1-2.1of which:5- Interest expenditure2.12.12.12.12.26- Real growth effect-1.9-1.8-1.7-1.9-1.97- Inflation effect-4.4-3.2-2.8-2.2-2.48'Stock-flow' adjustment3.51.92.21.72.120252026Variables2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR113.3123.2134.2143.42Interest expenditurebn EUR5.65.96.57.23Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.10.10.10.14Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR3.33.47.08.95National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.80.50.60.66One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR1.30.00.50.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR102.3113.2119.6126.68Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)*bn EUR10.96.37.19DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR-2.6-0.20.910=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR13.56.56.211Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change13.2%5.8%5.2%12Recommended net expenditure growth**% change11.8%5.0%5.1%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR1.50.80.114 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation***bn EUR1.52.32.415=13/17Annual balance% GDP0.50.30.016=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP0.50.80.717p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR270.4289.4304.3319.7Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
Table 22.5:  Defence expenditure and the national escape clause 

Portugal 

* The amount has a lower bound of 0 and an upper bound of 1.5 % of GDP. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 22.6:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 22.7:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

108 

2021202220232024202520261Total defence expenditure% GDP0.80.80.80.90.90.92of which: gross fixed capital formation% GDP0.10.10.10.20.20.23Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure*% GDP0.10.14Cumulated balance after flexibility% GDP0.70.7202520261Taxes on production and imports0.10.22Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.-0.50.03Social contributions0.00.04Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other-0.10.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total-0.50.2#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 -2.0-1.3-0.6of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.0-1.1-0.53=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-2.1-0.2-0.1   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-1.7-0.10.15   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.40.00.06   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.0-0.1-0.1#Variables (% GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 22.8:  RRF - Grants 

Portugal 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

Table 22.9:  RRF - Loans 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

109 

Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.20.50.72.21.82Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.80.21.70.60.61.820202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.10.10.20.80.54Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.10.10.20.90.85Capital transfers0.00.00.00.20.30.50.56=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.10.40.51.41.320202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.20.20.30.40.20.82Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.020202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.14Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.10.20.25Capital transfers0.00.00.00.10.10.20.36=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.10.20.40.620202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.10.00.10.10.2Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
     
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
23. ROMANIA 

Table 23.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

110 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.90.71.12Private consumption% change5.70.7-0.83Government consumption expenditure% change1.2-0.6-1.74Gross fixed capital formation% change-2.52.75.45Exports of goods and services% change-2.53.42.76Imports of goods and services% change4.03.60.9Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps3.01.00.68- Change in inventoriespps0.60.00.09- Net exportspps-2.8-0.30.610Output gap% pot GDP-1.2-1.7-1.911Employment % change1.6-1.00.312Unemployment rate%5.46.15.813Labour productivity% change-0.71.70.914HICP % change5.86.75.915GDP deflator% change9.67.86.816Compensation of employees per head% change17.38.05.517Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-6.7-6.2-4.7Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
Table 23.2:  General government budgetary position 

Romania 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

111 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue34.235.736.6of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.011.111.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.6.06.46.64- Social contributions11.711.812.05- Other (residual)5.56.36.46=7+14Expenditure 43.644.142.8of which:7- Primary expenditure41.141.039.6of which:8- Compensation of employees 11.210.910.39- Intermediate consumption6.26.05.910- Social payments13.613.813.111- Subsidies0.70.60.612- Gross fixed capital formation5.96.46.513- Other3.53.33.114- Interest expenditure2.43.13.315=1-6General government balance-9.3-8.4-6.216=1-7Primary balance-6.9-5.3-3.017Cyclically adjusted balance-9.0-7.9-5.618One-offs0.00.00.019=17-18Structural balance-9.0-7.9-5.620=19+14Structural primary balance-6.5-4.7-2.3Variables (% GDP) 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 23.3:  Debt developments 

Romania 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM) 

Table 23.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

* The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2024. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

112 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)54.859.161.12=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)5.54.32.0Contributions**3Primary balance6.95.33.04≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-2.2-1.2-1.1of which:5- Interest expenditure2.43.13.36- Real growth effect-0.4-0.4-0.67- Inflation effect-4.3-4.0-3.78'Stock-flow' adjustment0.90.20.2Variables202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn NAC766.2843.2884.52Interest expenditurebn NAC42.859.567.53Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn NAC0.00.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn NAC28.846.551.75National co-financing of EU programmesbn NAC8.811.013.26One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn NAC0.00.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn NAC685.8726.1752.18Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn NAC40.326.09DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn NAC19.927.910=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn NAC20.5-1.911Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change3.0%-0.3%12Recommended net expenditure growth% change2.8%2.6%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn NAC1.3-20.814 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation*bn NAC1.3-19.515=13/17Annual balance% GDP0.1-1.016=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP0.1-0.917p.m. Nominal GDP  bn NAC1759.21910.82065.0Variables 
  
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 23.5:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

Romania 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 23.6:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

113 

202520261Taxes on production and imports0.50.62Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.0.40.23Social contributions0.10.24Property income0.00.25Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.00.17=1+2+3+4+5+6Total1.01.4#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 -0.41.73.0of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)1.8-0.8-0.13=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-2.22.53.1   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.82.13.15   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-1.80.3-0.16   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.30.10.1#Variables (% GDP) 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
24. SLOVENIA 

Table 24.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

114 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change1.70.81.02.12.42Private consumption% change3.82.22.82.22.53Government consumption expenditure% change7.31.62.63.82.14Gross fixed capital formation% change-0.30.80.33.03.25Exports of goods and services% change2.3-0.20.02.82.66Imports of goods and services% change4.32.42.73.12.8Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps3.31.82.02.62.48- Change in inventoriespps-0.21.01.0-0.30.09- Net exportspps-1.3-2.0-2.1-0.20.010Output gap% pot GDP2.00.20.60.30.611Employment % change0.5-0.2-0.20.10.312Unemployment rate%3.73.63.43.63.513Labour productivity% change1.30.91.21.92.114HICP % change2.02.52.52.42.315GDP deflator% change3.53.43.82.92.716Compensation of employees per head% change6.26.57.95.85.717Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP4.5n.a.2.8n.a.2.820252026Variables 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
Table 24.2:  General government budgetary position 

Slovenia 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

115 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue45.546.346.246.346.7of which:2- Taxes on production and imports12.912.913.012.712.93- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.48.38.28.38.14- Social contributions17.218.017.718.818.35- Other (residual)7.17.17.36.57.36=7+14Expenditure 46.548.748.449.248.9of which:7- Primary expenditure45.247.447.147.947.6of which:8- Compensation of employees 11.312.112.212.112.49- Intermediate consumption6.56.86.86.76.710- Social payments18.419.018.819.519.411- Subsidies1.11.21.21.11.112- Gross fixed capital formation5.15.65.35.75.313- Other2.72.72.82.82.714- Interest expenditure1.31.31.31.31.315=1-6General government balance-0.9-2.4-2.2-2.8-2.316=1-7Primary balance0.3-1.1-0.9-1.5-0.917Cyclically adjusted balance-1.9n.a.-2.5n.a.-2.618One-offs-0.3-0.5-0.50.00.019=17-18Structural balance-1.6-2.0-2.0-3.0-2.620=19+14Structural primary balance-0.3-0.7-0.7-1.7-1.2Variables (% GDP)20252026 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 24.3:  Debt developments 

Slovenia 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 24.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

116 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)66.666.065.264.763.72=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-1.7-0.6-1.4-1.3-1.6Contributions**3Primary balance-0.31.10.91.50.94≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-2.1-1.4-1.7-1.9-1.8of which:5- Interest expenditure1.31.31.31.31.36- Real growth effect-1.1-0.5-0.6-1.5-1.57- Inflation effect-2.2-2.2-2.4-1.7-1.78'Stock-flow' adjustment0.7-0.3-0.5-1.0-0.720252026Variables2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR29.831.334.236.42Interest expenditurebn EUR0.80.90.91.03Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.14Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR0.80.60.70.95National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.20.10.10.26One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.30.20.30.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR27.729.632.234.48Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR1.92.62.19DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR0.70.20.310=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR1.22.41.811Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change4.2%8.1%5.7%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change6.2%5.6%4.4%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR-0.60.70.414 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn EUR-0.60.20.615=13/17Annual balance% GDP-0.81.00.616=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-0.80.20.817p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR64.167.470.774.3Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
Slovenia 

Table 24.5:  Defence expenditure and the national escape clause 

* The amount has a lower bound of 0 and an upper bound of 1.5 % of GDP. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 24.6:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 24.7:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of these Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

117 

2021202220232024202520261Total defence expenditure% GDP1.21.11.31.41.41.82of which: gross fixed capital formation% GDP0.20.10.40.40.50.73Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure*% GDP0.20.64Cumulated balance after flexibility% GDP0.00.2202520261Taxes on production and imports0.10.02Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.0.0-0.13Social contributions0.40.54Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total0.50.4#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 1.4-1.0-0.7of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.6-0.3-0.43=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.8-0.7-0.3   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure1.1-0.9-0.45   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.10.20.06   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.10.00.0#Variables (% GDP) 
 
   
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Slovenia 

Table 24.8:  RRF - Grants 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

Table 24.9:  RRF - Loans 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

118 

Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.20.60.50.70.42Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.40.00.50.20.60.720202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.10.40.44Gross fixed capital formation0.00.20.10.10.10.40.35Capital transfers0.00.00.00.10.10.20.16=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.20.10.20.20.60.420202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.00.00.50.20.10.12Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.020202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.10.20.30.15Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.10.20.30.120202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.8Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.9Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
25. SLOVAKIA 

Table 25.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

119 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change1.90.80.81.31.02Private consumption% change3.51.11.10.90.73Government consumption expenditure% change4.01.92.2-0.8-0.24Gross fixed capital formation% change1.63.43.22.72.55Exports of goods and services% change0.02.83.61.01.06Imports of goods and services% change2.64.24.40.71.0Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps3.21.71.80.90.98- Change in inventoriespps1.10.7-0.30.20.09- Net exportspps-2.3-1.1-0.70.30.010Output gap% pot GDP0.3-0.5-0.5-1.2-0.911Employment % change-0.20.0-0.4-0.2-0.512Unemployment rate%5.35.45.45.65.613Labour productivity% change2.10.91.21.51.414HICP % change3.24.34.24.84.115GDP deflator% change3.43.83.83.83.616Compensation of employees per head% change7.75.35.75.33.717Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-3.7n.a.-2.3n.a.-2.720252026Variables 
 
 
     
 
 
 
Table 25.2:  General government budgetary position 

Slovakia 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

120 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue42.043.844.143.044.3of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.612.112.312.112.33- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.18.28.38.38.34- Social contributions16.116.116.216.416.25- Other (residual)6.27.47.36.27.66=7+14Expenditure 47.548.849.147.148.9of which:7- Primary expenditure46.047.247.545.447.2of which:8- Compensation of employees 11.411.211.311.111.39- Intermediate consumption5.76.36.15.85.710- Social payments20.920.320.419.519.611- Subsidies1.71.11.11.01.012- Gross fixed capital formation3.65.35.23.65.413- Other2.83.03.34.44.214- Interest expenditure1.41.61.61.71.715=1-6General government balance-5.5-5.0-5.0-4.1-4.616=1-7Primary balance-4.1-3.4-3.4-2.4-2.917Cyclically adjusted balance-5.6n.a.-4.8n.a.-4.218One-offs0.00.00.00.10.119=17-18Structural balance-5.6-4.8-4.8-3.7-4.320=19+14Structural primary balance-4.2-3.2-3.2-2.0-2.6Variables (% GDP)20252026 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 25.3:  Debt developments 

Slovakia 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 25.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

121 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)59.761.561.962.864.02=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)3.92.22.21.32.1Contributions**3Primary balance4.13.43.42.42.94≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.4-1.1-1.0-1.3-1.0of which:5- Interest expenditure1.41.61.61.71.76- Real growth effect-1.0-0.5-0.5-0.7-0.67- Inflation effect-1.8-2.2-2.2-2.3-2.18'Stock-flow' adjustment1.3-0.2-0.20.20.220252026Variables2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR59.661.866.969.72Interest expenditurebn EUR1.41.92.22.53Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.0-0.10.00.04Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR3.62.13.84.25National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.60.50.50.56One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR54.057.560.462.58Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR3.53.02.19DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR1.31.51.110=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR2.21.41.011Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change4.0%2.5%1.7%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change6.2%3.8%0.9%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR-1.2-0.70.514 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn EUR-1.2-1.9-1.415=13/17Annual balance% GDP-0.9-0.50.316=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-0.9-1.4-1.017p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR123.5130.2136.3142.5Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
Table 25.5:  Defence expenditure and the national escape clause 

Slovakia 

* The amount has a lower bound of 0 and an upper bound of 1.5 % of GDP. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 25.6:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 25.7:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - expenditure side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

122 

2021202220232024202520261Total defence expenditure% GDP1.41.01.01.42.21.82of which: gross fixed capital formation% GDP0.2-0.1-1.20.21.00.73Flexibility from increases in defence expenditure*% GDP0.90.54Cumulated balance after flexibility% GDP-2.3-1.5202520261Taxes on production and imports0.90.32Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.0.20.03Social contributions0.00.44Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total1.10.8#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202520261Compensation of employees0.3-0.22Intermediate consumption-0.9-0.33Social payments0.00.04Interest expenditure0.00.05Subsidies0.5-0.16Gross fixed capital formation0.00.07Capital transfers0.10.08Other0.00.09=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8Total0.1-0.6#ESA2010 category(% of GDP) 
     
 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
     
 
 
Slovakia 

Table 25.8:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 25.9:  RRF - Grants 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

123 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 2.00.21.3of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)1.3-1.1-0.23=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.61.31.5   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.22.41.75   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-1.0-0.90.06   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure1.5-0.1-0.2#Variables (% GDP)Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.00.10.71.72.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.80.41.20.61.01.120202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.20.30.34Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.10.11.11.55Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.40.30.36=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.10.41.41.820202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
 
 
   
 
 
 
     
 
26. FINLAND 

Table 26.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

124 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.41.00.11.40.92Private consumption% change-0.40.8-1.41.81.23Government consumption expenditure% change1.7-0.3-0.3-1.00.44Gross fixed capital formation% change-5.06.02.03.94.05Exports of goods and services% change1.81.00.91.62.26Imports of goods and services% change-0.82.50.71.93.2Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps-0.91.6-0.41.61.68- Change in inventoriespps0.60.00.40.0-0.39- Net exportspps1.1-0.60.1-0.1-0.410Output gap% pot GDP-2.2-2.2-2.6-1.6-2.211Employment % change-1.1-0.3-0.70.80.412Unemployment rate%8.49.49.59.09.313Labour productivity% change1.51.40.80.60.514HICP % change1.01.81.91.91.615GDP deflator% change0.72.00.92.21.716Compensation of employees per head% change1.83.42.83.92.817Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP-0.6n.a.-0.8n.a.-1.420252026Variables 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 26.2:  General government budgetary position 

Finland 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

125 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue53.453.154.553.154.9of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.914.014.214.114.63- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.16.015.816.315.616.24- Social contributions11.812.112.212.312.55- Other (residual)11.611.211.811.111.66=7+14Expenditure 57.857.458.956.658.9of which:7- Primary expenditure56.255.957.355.057.1of which:8- Compensation of employees 13.413.313.713.413.89- Intermediate consumption11.711.411.611.011.310- Social payments22.522.422.821.922.611- Subsidies1.21.11.21.11.112- Gross fixed capital formation4.44.95.05.05.113- Other3.02.83.12.63.214- Interest expenditure1.61.51.61.61.815=1-6General government balance-4.4-4.3-4.5-3.6-4.016=1-7Primary balance-2.8-2.8-2.8-2.0-2.217Cyclically adjusted balance-3.1n.a.-2.9n.a.-2.718One-offs0.00.00.00.00.019=17-18Structural balance-3.1-3.0-2.9-2.6-2.720=19+14Structural primary balance-1.5-1.5-1.3-1.0-0.9Variables (% GDP)20252026 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
Table 26.3:  Debt developments 

Finland 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM), Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) 

Table 26.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

126 

2024OutturnDBPCOMDBPCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)82.586.988.188.590.92=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)5.44.85.71.62.7Contributions**3Primary balance2.82.82.82.02.24≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect0.7-0.90.9-1.5-0.4of which:5- Interest expenditure1.61.51.61.61.86- Real growth effect-0.3-0.8-0.1-1.2-0.87- Inflation effect-0.6-1.6-0.7-1.9-1.58'Stock-flow' adjustment1.83.02.01.11.020252026Variables2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn EUR152.7159.4164.2168.32Interest expenditurebn EUR3.24.44.65.23Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn EUR0.00.51.00.84Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn EUR1.01.51.71.85National co-financing of EU programmesbn EUR0.70.60.60.66One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn EUR0.00.00.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn EUR147.9152.4156.3160.08Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn EUR4.53.93.79DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn EUR-0.32.00.910=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn EUR4.81.92.811Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change3.3%1.2%1.8%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change3.7%1.6%1.9%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn EUR-0.7-0.6-0.214 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn EUR-0.7-1.2-1.415=13/17Annual balance% GDP-0.2-0.2-0.116=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-0.2-0.4-0.517p.m. Nominal GDP  bn EUR272.8276.0278.6285.9Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 26.5:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

Finland 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 26.6:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - expenditure side 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

127 

202520261Taxes on production and imports0.30.42Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.0.1-0.23Social contributions0.30.14Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total0.70.3#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202520261Compensation of employees-0.3-0.32Intermediate consumption-0.3-0.23Social payments0.00.04Interest expenditure0.00.05Subsidies0.60.06Gross fixed capital formation0.00.07Capital transfers-0.10.08Other0.00.09=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8Total-0.2-0.5#ESA2010 category(% of GDP) 
 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 26.7:  Fiscal stance 

Finland 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

Table 26.8:  RRF - Grants 

Source: Draft Budgetary Plan 

128 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 -1.10.10.4of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-0.2-0.10.03=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-0.90.20.4   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.80.80.55   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.3-0.6-0.16   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.10.00.0#Variables (% GDP)Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.00.10.10.20.22Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.00.10.00.10.20.320202021202220232024202520263Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.10.10.14Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.10.16=4+5Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.10.120202021202220232024202520267Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
 
   
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
27. SWEDEN 

Table 27.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

129 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=7+8+9Real GDP% change0.81.52.62Private consumption% change0.61.72.93Government consumption expenditure% change1.20.41.54Gross fixed capital formation% change0.00.63.25Exports of goods and services% change2.05.02.66Imports of goods and services% change2.35.02.6Contributions to real GDP growth 7- Final domestic demandpps0.61.02.58- Change in inventoriespps0.40.40.19- Net exportspps-0.10.10.010Output gap% pot GDP-2.1-2.1-1.011Employment % change-0.30.10.912Unemployment rate%8.49.08.413Labour productivity% change1.11.51.814HICP % change2.02.50.615GDP deflator% change3.01.61.416Compensation of employees per head% change5.24.13.117Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world% GDP5.45.04.8Variables 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 27.2:  General government budgetary position 

Sweden 

Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast (COM) 

130 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue49.248.647.8of which:2- Taxes on production and imports21.020.920.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.17.717.417.24- Social contributions3.73.83.85- Other (residual)6.86.56.36=7+14Expenditure 50.750.250.2of which:7- Primary expenditure50.149.549.6of which:8- Compensation of employees 12.712.412.69- Intermediate consumption8.48.58.410- Social payments15.215.014.711- Subsidies1.21.11.012- Gross fixed capital formation5.55.76.013- Other7.06.96.814- Interest expenditure0.70.70.615=1-6General government balance-1.6-1.7-2.416=1-7Primary balance-0.9-0.9-1.817Cyclically adjusted balance-0.4-0.5-1.918One-offs0.0-0.10.019=17-18Structural balance-0.4-0.5-1.920=19+14Structural primary balance0.30.3-1.2Variables (% GDP) 
   
 
 
 
Table 27.3:  Debt developments 

Sweden 

* End of period. 
** The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow 
adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations (COM) 

Table 27.4:  Net expenditure (outturn and forecast), annual and cumulated deviations vis-à-vis the 
recommendation 

* The Council Recommendation does not include an annual growth rate for 2024. The figure for 2024 in this table is implicit in the 
recommended maximum cumulative growth rate. 
** The cumulative net expenditure growth rates are calculated with reference to the base year 2023. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

131 

202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio* (% of GDP)34.034.535.32=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)2.00.50.8Contributions**3Primary balance0.90.91.84≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.5-0.3-0.7of which:5- Interest expenditure0.70.70.66- Real growth effect-0.3-0.5-0.97- Inflation effect-0.9-0.5-0.58'Stock-flow' adjustment1.6-0.1-0.3Variables2023202420252026OutturnOutturnCOMCOM1Total expenditurebn NAC3072.33236.33305.93439.22Interest expenditurebn NAC44.042.248.242.13Cyclical unemployment expenditurebn NAC5.710.815.511.44Expenditure funded by transfers from the EUbn NAC11.69.515.47.15National co-financing of EU programmesbn NAC1.61.67.07.06One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded)bn NAC0.00.00.00.07=1-2-3-4-5-6Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before discretionary revenue measures, DRM)bn NAC3009.33172.13219.83371.68Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM)bn NAC162.847.7151.89DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact)bn NAC-25.9-15.4-48.210=8-9Change in net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) bn NAC188.763.1200.011Outturn / forecast net expenditure growth% change6.3%2.0%6.2%12Recommended net expenditure growth*% change6.4%4.0%4.4%13=(11-12) x 7Annual deviationbn NAC-3.9-63.858.314 (cumulated from 13)Cumulated deviation**bn NAC-3.9-67.6-9.315=13/17Annual balance% GDP-0.1-1.00.916=14/17Cumulated balance% GDP-0.1-1.0-0.117p.m. Nominal GDP  bn NAC6143.26379.86580.36849.7Variables 
   
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 27.5:  Fiscal policy measures taken by General Government - revenue side 

Sweden 

The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive 
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures. 
Source: Data reported by Member States 

Table 27.6:  Fiscal stance 

(1) A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfall) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP 
growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 2 of the Fiscal Statistical 
Tables. 
Source: Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast and Commission calculations 

132 

202520261Taxes on production and imports-0.1-0.42Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.-0.3-0.33Social contributions0.0-0.14Property income0.00.05Capital taxes0.00.06Other0.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total-0.3-0.7#ESA2010 category(% of GDP)202420252026OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3Fiscal stance1 -0.70.4-1.4of which contribution from:2- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.0-0.10.13=4+5+6- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-0.70.5-1.5   including:4   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.10.6-1.05   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.1-0.1-0.46   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.50.1-0.1#Variables (% GDP)