REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget (2026-2034)
Date: 2025-07-16
Institutions: Directorate-General for Budget, European Commission
Subjects: EU budget, EU expenditure, Member States' contribution, budget policy, budgetary resources, long-term forecast, multiannual financial framework, own resources

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 16.7.2025 COM(2025) 573 final  REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget (2026-2034)  
 
 
Table of Contents 

1. 
2. 

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 
Forecast of outflows of the EU budget 2026-2034............................................................................................................ 2 

2.1. 

2.2. 

2.3. 

2.4. 

2.5. 

2.6. 

Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2028-2034 MFF ........................................................... 5 

Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF ........................................................... 5 

Payments for the completion of outstanding commitments made before 2021 .............................. 7 

Decommitments ........................................................................................................................................................................... 7 

NextGenerationEU ....................................................................................................................................................................... 8 

Evolution of the level of outstanding commitments ............................................................................................. 9 

3. 

Forecast of inflows of the EU budget  2026-2034 ............................................................................................................. 9 

3.1. 

Revenue sources ....................................................................................................................................................................... 10 

4. 
Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11 
Annex II – Results of the forecast ......................................................................................................................................................................... 13 
Table 1.1 – Long-term forecast of future outflows over 2026-2034 for the MFF............................................................... 13 
Table 1.2 – Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF .................................................................... 14 
Table 1.3 – Payments for the completion of pre-2021 commitments ......................................................................................... 15 
Table 1.4 – Payments for 2028-2034 commitments .............................................................................................................................. 16 
Table 2 – Forecast decommitments 2026-2027........................................................................................................................................ 18 
Table 3 – Long-term forecast of outflows for NextGenerationEU ................................................................................................... 19 
Table 4 – Change in the total outstanding commitments from 2026 to 2034 ...................................................................... 20 
Table 5 – Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget over 2026-2030 .......................................................... 21 
Table 6 – Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget of 2028-2034 MFF .................................................... 23 

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1.  Introduction 

This reporti projects the inflows and outflows of the EU budget in accordance with Article 253(1)(c) of the Financial 
Regulationii.  This  fifthiii  edition  forecasts  the  revenue  and  expenditure  stemming  from  the  multiannual  financial 
framework (MFF) 2021-2027iv, NextGenerationEUv and for 2028-2034vi based on the Commission proposal for the 
next MFFvii. 

The forecast differentiates between the reste-à-liquider (RAL) for 2026-2030, based on the legislation currently in 
force and the Commission’s proposal for 2028-2034 for the MFF and the Own Resources Decision1. 

As  regards  revenue,  the  forecast  until  2027  is  based  on  the  revenue  system  of  the  current  Own  Resources 
Decisionviii. The revenue projections also consider the Agreement on the withdrawal of the United  Kingdom of Great 
Britain  and  Northern  Ireland  from  the  European  Union  and  the  European  Atomic  Energy  Community ix  (‘Withdrawal 
Agreement’).  

The  estimates  for  payments  in  2026  and  2027  take  into  account  the  revised  expenditure  ceilings  (technical 
adjustment  of  the  MFF  for  2026)x  and  the  commitment  appropriations  included  in  the  financial  programming 
accompanying the draft budget for 2026xi, which incorporates the programme-specific adjustments under Article 5 
of the MFF Regulationxii (MFFR)xiii as well as re-use of decommitments under Article 15(3)of the Financial Regulation. 

The mid-term revision of the MFF 2021-2027 is included. Notably the net reinforcement of the expenditure ceiling 
for commitments of EUR 3.4 billion, together with changes to the overall allocations under Article 5 MFFR and Article 
15(3)  of  the  Financial  Regulationxiv  as  well  as  reinforcements  to  special  instruments.  As  regards  the  payment 
ceilings,  the  MFF  mid-term  revision  makes  it  possible  to  adjust  the  2026  ceiling  by  the  amount  equivalent  to 
amounts unused in 2025 if necessary for financial needs in order to avoid the risk of backlogs. 

The  mid-term  review  of  cohesion  policy  offers  several  flexibilities  and  financial  incentives  for  Member  States  to 
voluntarily  re-programme  their  cohesion  resources  to  the  priorities  in  the  areas  of  competitiveness,  defence, 
affordable housing, water resilience and energy transition. These incentives could speed up project implementation. 

In  addition,  the  Strategic  Technologies  for  Europe  Platform  (STEP)  Regulationxv  provides  flexibilities  for  priorities 
dedicated  to  STEP  in  the  cohesion  programmes.  The  deadline  for  final  application  for  an  interim payment  for  the 
final accounting year of the 2014-2020 period has been extended until 31 July 2025. 

This forecast also projects payments on all programmes under NextGenerationEU. This expenditure, additional to the 
spending under the MFF, is financed by proceeds from borrowing operations on the capital markets. 

2.  Forecast of outflows of the EU budget 2026-

2034 

Over the period 2026-2034 payments are estimated at EUR 2 375billion. The estimated annual average of outflows 
of the EU budget is EUR 263 billion. 

1 COM(2025)574 

2 

 
 
They are composed of: 

• 

• 

• 
• 

Payments  on  outstanding  commitments  stemming  from  MFFs  prior  to  2021-27  estimated  at 
EUR 13.4 billion; 
Payments on commitments made in the MFF 2021-27, which are paid partly in 2026-27 and partly in the 
MFF 28-34, estimated in total at EUR 714 billion; 
Payments from NextGenerationEU non-repayable supportxvi estimated in total at EUR 107 billion. 
Payments on commitments for the MFF 2028-2034 estimated in total at EUR 1 642 billion. 

For the period until the end of 2027, the forecast includes the programme-specific adjustments based on Article 5 
of  the  MFF  Regulation  as  modified  in  the  mid-term  revision  of  the  MFF  –  yielding  an  overall  impact  of  EUR  10.2 
billion (in 2018 prices) for the whole period - and the re-use of decommitments under Article 15(3) of the Financial 
Regulation for the year 2027.  

Chart 1 - Payments forecast by category 

Payments on outstanding commitments stemming from MFFs prior to 2021-27 are estimated at EUR 1.9 billion on 
average for 2026-2034. They are expected to decrease and be phased out by end 2031 

Payments on commitments made in the MFF 2021-2027 total EUR 89.3 billion on average, of which EUR 190 billion 
in 2026-27 and EUR 56 billion post-27. The forecast shows an increase in payments towards the end of this MFF, 
with a peak in  2027followed by a decrease towards the  second half of the next MFF. This is consistent with  past 
implementation patterns as the programmes reach cruising speed. NextGenerationEU payments are expected to be 
finalised in 2026. 

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As  per  the  Commission  proposal,  payments  on  commitments  made  in  the  MFF  2028-2034  are  on  average 
EUR 235 billion, totalling up to EUR 1 642 billion over the period. Its peak is expected early in the MFF as the phase-
out of previous MFFs overlaps with the new payments, which occur earlier than in the past programming periods. 

The  unallocated  margin  under  the  payment  ceilings  for  2026  is  estimated  at  EUR  18.6  billion  and  in  2027  is 
estimated  at  EUR  3.2  billion.  This  margin  is  the  difference  between  the  payment  ceiling  (as  per  the  last  MFF 
technical  adjustment)  and  the  forecast  of  payments  for  programmes  and  instruments,  which  fall  under  the  MFF 
ceilings.  

Margins can be positive (i.e. forecast payments are less than the payment ceiling) or negative (i.e. forecast payments 
exceed the ceiling). This is because the payment ceiling in this MFF is even across the years (in real terms), while the 
expenditures  vary. The Single Margin Instrument  (Article  11(1)(b) MFFR) allows to adjust the  payment  ceiling over 
time, unspent amounts in one year increase the future ceilings. Therefore, the margins prior to 2026 increase the 
ceilings in 2026-2027 within the limits set by Articles 11(3) and Article 11(3a) MFFR. Considering these adjustments 
as well as the EUR 2.6 billion from the application of Article 5 MFFR, the payment ceiling for 2021-2027 is forecast 
to be sufficient to cover all expected payments. The risk of an abnormal backlog in payments is limited, though the 
available margin under the payment ceiling is very limited in 2027.  

The payment ceiling for the next MFF is forecast to cater for the estimated payment needs. 

2.1.  Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2028-2034 MFF 

The payments for the 2028-2034 MFF are forecast at EUR 1 644 billion over the period, covering over 80% of the 
MFF. 

Heading 1 – Economic, social and territorial cohesion, agriculture, rural and 
maritime prosperity and security 

The main driver of the payments profile in the 2028-2034 MFF will be the National and Regional Partnership Plans. 
Payments under heading 1 total EUR 965 billion. The payments forecast is based on the parameters set out in the 
sectoral legal act. 

As of 2028, the EU is due to start the repayment of the debt issued under NextGenerationEU.  For the MFF 2028-
2034, the Commission proposes a fixed amount of EUR  24]billion per year in current prices for the repayment of 
interest and capital of the non-repayable support provided under NextGenerationEU. This means an overall amount 
of EUR 168 billion over 2028-2034. The fixed amount is calculated considering interest costs at forward rates with 
a  safety  buffer  to  account  for  interest  rate  uncertainty.  If  the  interest  rates  turn  out  lower  than  estimated,  the 
repayment  of  capital  will  be  anticipated  to  keep  at  all  times  the  fixed  annuity.  This  approach  ensures  full 
predictability to the budgetary planning and for Member States contributions to the budget for this item. It insulates 
the  repayment  from  market  volatility  and  delivers  a  steady  and  predictable  reduction  of  the  liabilities  stemming 
from NextGenerationEU as per Article 5(2) of Council Decision (EU, Euratom) 2020/2053.  

Heading 2 – Competitiveness, prosperity and security 

Payments  under  heading  2  total  EUR  424  billion.  Payments  are  mainly  driven  by  Horizon  Europe  and  by  the 
European Competitiveness Fund. 

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Heading 3 – Global Europe 

Payments under heading 3 total EUR 135 billion. Payments are mainly driven by the Global Europe . 

2.2.  Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF 

Cohesion and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) represent more than half of the  projected payments stemming 
from the 2021-2027 MFF. The implementation of these two policies largely drives the estimates of the long-term 
payment forecast. 

Heading 2a - Cohesion policy 

The draft budget for 2026 is above the central scenario of last year’s forecastxvii as the implementation of cohesion 
policy  is  picking  up  compared  to  the  historic  benchmark  of  the  period  2014-2020.  Yet,  the  European  Regional 
Development Fund, the Cohesion Fund, and the European Social Fund Plus remain on aggregate below the historical 
profile. By end-2026 the payments for cohesion policy are forecast below the previous MFF (34% in the MFF 2014-
2020 compared to the 26% currently). This reflects the delayed approval of the programmes, national authorities’ 
implementation  of 
efforts  to  finalise 
NextGenerationEU. 

the  2014-2020  programmes,  successive  adjustments,  and 

the 

Considering the latest information on implementation, Members States are forecast to speed up implementation in 
2026  compared  to  2025  to  reduce  the  risk  of  automatic  decommitments.  To  that  effect,  it  is  assumed  that  the 
submission  of  payment  claims  would  exceed  the  historical  profile  in  2027  and  reach  cruising  speed  in  2028  and 
2029. The RAL remaining at the end of 2029 is expected to be paid in equal proportions in 2030 and 2031. 

The  mid-term  review  of  cohesion  policy  provides  Member  States  with  opportunities  to  benefit  from  one-off  pre-
financing and higher EU co-financing by redirecting 2021-2027 resources towards the Union’s new priorities in the 
areas  of  competitiveness,  defence,  affordable  housing,  water  resilience  and  energy  transition.  The  related 
programme  amendments  must  be  submitted  before  the  end  of  2025,  to  allow  for  additional  pre-financing  to  be 
paid in 2026, with an expected net budgetary impact of EUR 4.1 billion. The forecast assumes that any effect of the 
revision, as proposed by the Commission, would be accommodated within the payment ceilings for 2027, and is part 
of the overall assumption that Member States will manage payments so that decommitments are avoided.  

Following  the  adoption  of  the  STEP  Regulation  in  March  2024,  6  Member  States  reprogrammed  STEP  resources 
already in 2024. Overall, 29 cohesion policy programme amendments were adopted by the end of December 2024 
corresponding to EUR 5.9 billion (ERDF, JTF, ESF+)xviii. Based on that, pre-financing is estimated at EUR 1.77 billion 
(30% of the total STEP amount). In line with the applicable legal base, 30% pre-financing was also paid on the total 
JTF allocation using NGEU resources (EUR 5.9 billion paid in 2024). In 2025, 5 Member States reprogrammed STEP 
resources.  Overall, 9  programme amendments  were adopted by the end of  March 2025 corresponding to EUR 0.4 
billion. Based on that, the additional pre-financing paid in 2025 amounts to EUR 0.12 billion (30% of the dedicated 
STEP priorities’ amount). 

Heading 3 - Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Just Transition Fund  

The payments forecast for Pillar I of the CAP, market-related expenditure and direct payments, amounts to EUR 81 
billion over 2026-2027. 

The implementation of Pillar II under the CAP strategic plans, the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development 
(EAFRD), started in 2023. The transitional provisions extending the 2014-2020 programmes up to 2022 allowed the 

5 

 
continuation  until  2025  of  their  implementation  under  the  n+3  rule,  i.e.  providing  one  more  year  to  complete 
payments compared to the rules for the 2023-2027 CAP strategic plans. 

The  forecast  of  payments  stemming  from  the  MFF  2021-2027  includes  the  payments  from  the  2023-2027  CAP 
Plans as well as those linked to the extension of the rural development programmes to 2021 and 2022 that will be 
completed by 2027 (see point 2.3. payments on pre-2021 commitments). The forecast also considers the transfers 
between  pillars  of  the  Common  Agricultural  Policy  communicated  by  Member  Statesxix,  which  resulted  in  a  net 
transfer  of  EUR 2.6 billion  from  Pillar  I  (EAGF)  to  Pillar II  (EAFRD)  for  the  years  2025-2027.  This  transfer  amount 
might change as Member States are able to review their transfer request up to 31 August 2025. 

The  implementation  of  the  2023-2027  CAP  plans  is  expected  to  gain  momentum  in  2025  and  2026  and  it  is 
projected  to  reach  a  cruising  speed  in  2028  and  2029,  with  smaller  payments  in  2030  and  closure  expected  in 
2031. The completion of the 2014-2022 operational rural development programmes is expected for 2027 with very 
limited payments for 2026 and 2027. Most of the interim payments are to be paid in 2025. 

For  the  Just  Transition  Fund,  the  first  substantial  payments  under  the  MFF  ceilings  are  expected  in  2026.  The 
payment  of  the  pre-financing  related  to  STEP  under  NextGenerationEU  has  already  taken  place  in  2024  and 
additional payments are expected for 2025 also from NextGenerationEU funding. From 2027 Member States would 
be able to use only payments financed through the MFF. 

Other  

For the European Recovery Instrument (EURI) the amounts for 2026 and 2027 reflect the draft budget proposal and 
the accompanying financial programming, respectively. 

The  Ukraine  Reserve,  a  special  instrument  that  mobilises  non-repayable  support  over  and  above  the  MFF 
expenditure ceilings, is outside of the scope of this forecast.  

2.3.  Payments for the completion of outstanding commitments made 

before 2021 

The  payments  of  outstanding  commitments  (RAL  for  reste  à  liquider)  made  before  2021  is  forecast  at 
EUR 13.4 billion for the period 2026-2031. 

Cohesion policy 

Most payments on pre-2021 commitments relate to cohesion policy, which is approaching closure. The projections 
are  based  on  the  latest  Member  States’  forecast  (January  2025)  and  information  on  the  implementation  on  the 
ground.  Following  the  changes  proposed  in  STEP,  the  deadline  for  submitting  the  final  application  for  an  interim 
payment for the final accounting year was extended by 12 months to 31 July 2025. Nevertheless, limited payments 
are expected in 2025 and afterwards, considering the retention rate and pre-financing clearance. No payments have 
been included in the draft budget for 2026. 

6 

 
Common Agricultural Policy  

The completion of the 2014-2022 operational rural development programmes is expected for 2027.. 

Other programmes  

Most  of  the  outstanding  payments  for  the  rest  of  the  budget  originating  before  the  current  MFF  are  related  to 
Heading 1 – Single Market, Innovation and Digital – and Heading 6 – Neighbourhood and the World. 

2.4.  Decommitments 

The decommitments’ forecast stemming from the programmes of the current and prior MFFs until end-2027 stands 
at  EUR 5.5 billion.  The  increase  is  mostly  driven  by  the  cohesion  programmes  under  the  current  MFF  and  the 
European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD).  

The  MFF  2028-2034  proposes substantive  changes  to  the  delivery  modes  with  a  view  to  simplify  and  accelerate 
implementation. The Commission expects full take up of the commitments proposed for the next MFF. Therefore, no 
specific decommitment forecast is produced before the actual start of the new programmes. 

Heading 2a – Cohesion policy 

Considering the latest available forecast from Member States, the risk of de-commitments for the completion of the 
programmes 2014-2020 has lowered compared to last year’s report. Overall, the risk of decommitments at the end 
of 2027 is reduced thanks to acceleration in implementation, and additional pre-financing stemming from the mid-
term review of cohesion policy. 

Heading 3 - Common Agricultural Policy and Just Transition Fund  

The  forecast  of  decommitments  from  rural  development  programmes  2014-2022  is  broadly  stable  compared  to 
last year. It is estimated at EUR 3.1 billion which is about 2.4% of the total allocation, a share comparable to that of 
the 2007-2013 rural development programmes. As regards the timing, decommitments are expected  by the end-
2027  when  most  of  the  closure  payments  will  be  processed.  This  is  one  year  later  than  expected  in  last  year’s 
report. This assumption appears more prudent given the substantive number of programmes to handle (more than 
100). 

At this stage it is unclear if there will be decommitments under the 2023-2027 CAP Strategic Plans. If any, those 
are expected to take place at closure (i.e. end 2030/beginning 2031).   

Other programmes and headings 

For the programmes directly managed by the Commission, the decommitment forecast is built on the most recent 
project-level information. As in the previous report, the projections for the decommitments related to the MFF 2021-
2027  programmes  are  based  on  the  decommitment  rates  of  the  predecessor  programmes.  The  exact  year  of 

7 

 
 
decommitment  would  depend  on  the  closure  of  individual  projects  and  actions  that  cannot  be  forecast  with 
precision. 

2.5.  NextGenerationEU 

NextGenerationEUxx  is  a  temporary  emergency  instrument  for  crisis  response,  recovery,  and  resilience  measures 
following the COVID-19 crisis. The non-repayable support component constitutes external assigned revenue to fund 
reform  and  investment  priorities  –  in  particular  through  the  Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility  (RRF)  –  and  through 
reinforcing a number of key programmes for the recovery.  

All  payments  under  NextGenerationEU  will  be  concluded  by  end  2026,  except  for  small  amounts  linked  to 
administrative  expenditure.  The  estimates  of  the  expected  implementation  are  drawn  separately  for  each 
programme  (see  Table X),  based  on  the  draft  budget  for  2026.  Some  amounts  of  decommitments  are  expected, 
primarily for EAFRD (EUR 0.4 billion). 

2.6.    Evolution of the level of outstanding commitments 

The  new  MFF  is  expected  to  start  with  a  RAL  of  EUR  339  billion,  which  compared  to  last  year’s  forecast 
(EUR 365 billion) is a decrease of EUR 26 billion. This result is partly driven by the acceleration of cohesion, for which 
under  the  N+3  decommitment  rule  payment  are  backloaded  towards  the  end  of  the  MFF  and  after. 
NextGenerationEU  RAL  will  be  absorbed  by  end  2026  when  all  the  payments  will  be  completed,  except  for  small 
amounts linked to administrative expenditure.  

The forecast for the RAL stemming from the 2021-2027 and previous MFFs (excluding NextGenerationEU) declines 
from 1.85% to 1.7% in 2027 as a share of EU -27 GNI.  

The  RAL  at  the  end  of  2034  is  forecast  at  EUR  331  billion  or  1.3%  of  EU-27  GNI.  It  will  originate  mostly  from 
commitments under the MFF 2028-2034 as the RAL for pre-2028 commitments is expected to be largely closed by 
end 2033. 

As a share of the MFF 2028-34 the RAL at the end of 2034 will represent approximately one fifth, which is smaller 
than the same metric for the current MFF. The new generation of programmes are expected be implemented more 
rapidly compared to historic benchmarks, notably in relation to the expenditures under shared management. 

3.  Forecast of inflows of the EU budget  

2026-2034 

Until 2027, the revenue forecast is based on  the own  resources system currently in  place, under Council  Decision 
(EU, Euratom) 2020/2053. The revenue as of 2028 is forecast based on the system proposed by the Commission 
with the proposal for a new Own Resources Decision.  

The  revenue  projections  are  based  on  the  Commission  spring  2025  economic  forecast  and  long-term  growth 
projections. 

8 

 
The EU budget is financed by own resources and other revenue. In addition, the Union is empowered to borrow funds 
to finance NextGenerationEU, which are channelled into the budget through external assigned revenue. The present 
forecast focuses on the revenue necessary to finance the budget expenditure within the MFF. 

The  own  resources  needed  to  finance  the  budget  are  determined  by  total  expenditure  less  ‘other  revenue’. 
Accordingly, the forecast of the EU budget revenue is based on the principle that expenditure must be matched by 
revenue; therefore, total revenue equals total expenditure. 

Since  2021,  in  line  with  the  Withdrawal  Agreement  (part  V),  the  United  Kingdom  contributes  to  the  EU  budget  in 
relation  to  outstanding  commitments  of  previous  financial  frameworks.  The  United  Kingdom’s  contribution 
constitutes ‘other revenue’ of the EU budget. It will progressively phase out as the outstanding commitments will be 
settled.  Other  miscellaneous  revenues  are  assumed  to  remain  nominally  constant  at  the  level  of  the  2026  Draft 
Budget. 

Own  resources  –  national  contributions  and customs duties  –  account  for  most  of  the  revenue  needed  to  finance 
budget  expenditure.  The  spending  cycle  determines  the  development  of  national  contributions  over  the  forecast 
period. The projected increases towards the end of the MFF  will lead to increasing national contributions in 2026-
2027, which is consistent with historical patterns. On average for the period 2026-2027, national contributions are 
projected at EUR 169 billion per year or 0.86% of the EU’s Gross National Income. 

3.1.  Revenue sources 

Traditional own resources (customs duties) are projected to grow over the period 2027-2034 at the same rate as 
GNI in current prices of each Member State starting from the level of gross customs duties projected for the Draft 
Budget 2026. From 2028, the parameters of the new Own Resources Decision proposal are used. 

Revenue from the VAT-based own resource is projected starting from the VAT bases of the individual Member States 
included in the Draft Budget 2026. The VAT bases are projected to grow over the period 2027-2034 at the same 
rate as GNI in current prices. 

The plastics-based own resource is projected starting from non-recycled plastic packing waste included in the Draft 
Budget 2026. The corresponding plastic packaging waste is projected to grow at the same rate as  GNI in constant 
prices over 2027-2034. Recycling rates are projected to converge linearly towards the EU recycling target of 55%, 
which must be achieved by 2030.  

The  GNI-based  own  resource  for  the  EU-27  is  calculated  as  the  remaining  difference  between  all  other  own 
resources  and  other  revenue  on  the  one  hand  and  the  forecast  expenditure  on  the  other.  The  parameters  for  the 
own resources specified in the Own Resources Decision determine the Member States’ share in the total amount of 
national contributions that is needed to balance the EU budget. 

The Commission proposal for a Own Resources Decision includes several additional own resources, as follows. 

The revenue forecast for the own resource based on the European Emission Trading System (ETS1) is based on an 
assumed carbon price of EUR 88.33 in 2025 prices. The number of auctioned emission allowances is derived from 
the legal provisions in the ETS Directive2.  

2 Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 October 2003 establishing a scheme 
for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Community and amending Council Directive 96/61/EC 

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Regarding the own resource based on e-waste, first the underlying non-collected waste of electrical and electronic 
equipment (WEEE) in a Member State in a given year is calculated. Collection rates are projected to converge linearly 
towards the EU collection target of 65% by 2034.  

Revenue  from  the  Tobacco  Excise  Duty  Own  Resource  (TEDOR)  is  projected  based  on  the  Tobacco  Excise  Duty 
Directive and its proposed recast.  

Revenue from the own resource based on the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is  projected assuming 
the same carbon price as with ETS1.  

The  projections  for  the  Corporate  Resource  for  Europe  (CORE)  are  based  on  2023  firm-level  data  of  the  Orbis 
database.  An  annual  lump-sum  contribution  from  all  companies  that  operate  and  sell  in  the  EU  is  applied  as 
specified in the Commission proposal for a new Own Resources Decision.  

Other revenue of the EU budget traditionally includes staff contributions, revenue accruing from the administrative 
operation  of  the  institutions,  contributions  and  refunds  in  connection  with  Union  agreements  and  programmes, 
interest  on  late  payments  and  fines,  revenue  from  borrowing  and  lending  operations,  revenue  from  fees  not 
assigned to specific expenditure, and miscellaneous revenue – as well as surpluses from previous years. Given their 
inherent volatility, most of these components are difficult to forecast. Therefore, the amount included in the  Draft 
Budget 2026 (i.e., EUR 3 billion) is assumed to remain nominally constant over the forecast period. 

Since  2021,  in  addition  to  the  above-mentioned  items,  other  revenue  of  the  EU  budget  includes  the  United 
Kingdom’s contribution related to outstanding commitments (RAL) for which the United Kingdom is liable, pension 
obligations and other components of the financial settlement, as laid down in the Withdrawal Agreement3. This is 
also reflected in the proposed financing of the Draft Budget 2026. 

The contribution of the United Kingdom related to outstanding commitments on 31 December 2020 is determined 
by applying the  United Kingdom’s financing share to the  forecast RAL payments for each year of the  2026-2030 
period.  The  resulting  annual  contribution  takes  into  account  the  payment  modalities  set  out  in  Article  148  of  the 
Withdrawal Agreement. 

The forecast of other revenue includes the United Kingdom’s contribution to pension liabilities for Members and EU 
high-level  public  office  holders  as  specified  in  Article  142(5)  of  the  Withdrawal  Agreement.  The  United  Kingdom 
contribution  to  staff  pensions  (an  estimated  EUR 333 million  in  the  Draft  Budget  2026)  enters  the  EU  budget  as 
external assigned revenue and is therefore not part of the long-term forecast of other revenue. 

In any given year, the total own resources collected by the Union may not exceed the own resources ceiling set in 
the Council Decision (EU, Euratom) 2020/2053 of 1.4% of EU-27 GNI, with an additional temporary increase of 0.6% 
of  EU  GNI  for  covering  all  liabilities  of  the  Union  from  the  borrowing  on  the  capital  markets  to  fund 
NextGenerationEU.  

For  the  period  2028-2034,  the  own  resources  ceilings  set  in  the  proposed  new  the  Own  Resources  Decision  are 
increased as follows: 

3 All components of the United Kingdom contribution are laid down in Article 148 of the Withdrawal Agreement. The 
forecast  only  includes  components  which  are  quantifiable  at  this  stage,  namely  the  provisional  United  Kingdom 
contribution  to  the  financing  of  payments  resulting  from  outstanding  commitments  prior  to  2021  for  which  the 
United  Kingdom  is  liable  under Article  140  and  pension  liabilities specified  under  Article  142.5  of  the  Withdrawal 
Agreement  as  well  as the  amounts the  Union  owes to  the  United  Kingdom under Article  145  (European  Coal  and 
Steel Community) and Article 146 (Union investment in the EIF). 

10 

 
 
•  1.75% under the permanent ceiling. 
•  0.6% under the ceiling for covering all liabilities of the Union from the borrowing on the capital markets to 

fund NextGenerationEU.  

•  0.25% for the crisis instrument, in case of activation.  

4.  Conclusions 

The  initiatives  put  forward  to  support  Member  States,  third  countries  and  specific  sectors  have  accelerated 
payments across all budget programmes. The improved implementation of 2021-2027 cohesion policy programmes 
decreases  the  risks  of  decommitments.  It  is  assumed  that  Member  States  will  do  what  is  needed  to  avoid 
decommitments,  benefitting  also  from  policy  incentives,  such  as  those  proposed  for  the  mid-term  review  of 
cohesion policy. For the years ahead, Member States will need to implement NextGenerationEU funds by 2026. 

The RAL at the end of the current MFF is expected to decrease to  EUR 330 billion. In the MFF 2028-2034, the new 
delivery model for programmes in shared management together with the N+1 decommitment target is expected to 
accelerate implementation and substantially reduce the RAL at the end of the next MFF. For the other programmes, 
the simplifications proposed are also expected to accelerate payments compared with historical trends, which would 
also contribute to containing the RAL.  

The  MFF  payment  ceiling  remains  sufficient  to  cover  the  projected  payments  until  the  end  of  the  current  MFF. 
Overall,  the  net  margin  in  2026  is  EUR 18.6 billion  and  in-2027  including  programme-specific  adjustments  is 
estimated at EUR 3.2 billion.  

In  the  2028-2034  MFF,  the  Commission’s  proposed  payments  ceiling  is  following  a  frontloaded  profile  as  of  the 
second  year  of  the  MFF,  driven  predominantly  by  the  more  accelerated  payment  profile  for  the  National  and 
Regional Partnership plans compared to their predecessors.  

The revenue to finance the budget follows the MFF expenditure cycle. The proposed package of new own resources 
is expected to keep national contributions within known boundaries.  

11 

 
 
Annex II – Results of the forecast 

All values are in billions of EUR, current prices, unless otherwise specified. Some totals may not tally due to rounding. 

Table 1.1 – Long-term forecast of future outflows over 2026-2034 for the MFF 

Year 

2026 

2027 

2028 

2029 

2030 

2031 

2032 

2033 

2034 

TOTAL 

Commitment Ceiling 

 182.9 

 186.2 

 269.5 

 282.9 

 283.1 

 290.4 

 294.1 

 285.4 

 279.7  2 353.9 

Payment Ceiling 

 201.2 

 195.2 

 270.0 

 300.7 

 297.1 

 292.8 

 277.4 

 274.7 

 267.5  2 379.1 

In addition, adjustment for MFFR 
Article 5 (estimate for future years) 

 0.0 

 2.6 

Commitments (programmed)* 

 193.4 

 194.8 

 266.7 

 279.9 

 280.1 

 287.1 

 290.6 

 281.8 

 276.0  2 350.4 

Forecast Payments** 

 192.2 

 196.6 

 270.0 

 300.7 

 297.1 

 292.8 

 277.4 

 274.7 

 267.5  2 375.4 

Of which Special Instruments*** 

 6.5 

 0.1 

* In line with the draft budget for 2026, including the Ukraine Reserve allocation and appropriations stemming from Article 5 of the MFF Regulation and Article 15(3) of the Financial Regulation and Article 15(3) of 
the Financial Regulation.  

** Includes the estimated level of payments for the Ukraine Reserve in 2026 only. 

*** The amounts for special instruments cover the Solidarity and Emergency Aid Reserve, the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund, the Brexit Adjustment Reserve, the Ukraine Reserve, the EURI Instrument, and 
the Flexibility Instrument. In the subsequent tables, the payments related to the mobilisations of the Flexibility Instrument and the EURI Instrument are included within the respective headings. No assumption is 
made for future use of special instruments in 2028-2034. 

12 

 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
 
Table 1.2 – Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF 

MFF Heading 

2026 

2027 

2028 

2029 

2030 

2031 

2032 

2033 

Total 

1 Single Market, Innovation and Digital 

 21.5 

 22.9 

 18.6 

 9.4 

 5.9 

 3.7 

2 Cohesion, Resilience and Values 

 73.6 

 74.3 

 70.9 

 70.4 

 37.7 

 23.2 

2.1 Economic, Social and territorial cohesion 

 58.7 

 61.7 

 68.3 

 68.9 

 37.0 

 22.9 

2.2 Resilience and Values 

 14.9 

 12.6 

 2.6 

 1.5 

3 Natural Resources and Environment 

 53.0 

 56.1 

 15.9 

 15.9 

 0.7 

 4.0 

 0.3 

 4.4 

 1.5 

 0.8 

 0.6 

 0.2 

 0.2 

 83.7 

 0.1 

 351.0 

 0.0 

 318.1 

 0.1 

 32.9 

 0.3 

 0.1 

 149.7 

3.1 Market related expenditure and direct 
payments 

3.2 Other programmes of Natural Resources 
and Environment 

 40.5 

 40.5 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 81.0 

 12.5 

 15.6 

 15.9 

 15.9 

 4.0 

 4.4 

 0.3 

 0.1 

 68.7 

4 Migration and Border Management 

5 Security and Defence 

 3.8 

 2.2 

 3.5 

 2.5 

 2.5 

 2.3 

 2.8 

 1.9 

6 Neighbourhood and the World 

 15.5 

 18.3 

 15.3 

 10.5 

7 European Public Administration 

 13.5 

 13.9 

Outside the MFF 

Special Instruments 

 3.2 

 1.9 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 2.7 

 1.2 

 6.1 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 1.1 

 0.4 

 3.2 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

Total 

 188.1 

 191.5 

 125.5 

 110.9 

 57.5 

 36.0 

 0.4 

 0.1 

 1.3 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 4.2 

 0.0 

 16.7 

 0.0   10.6 

 0.2 

 70.3 

 0.0 

 27.4 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 3.2 

 1.9 

 0.5 

 714.4 

13 

 
 
 
Table 1.3 – Payments for the completion of pre-2021 commitments 

MFF Heading 

2026 

2027 

2028 

2029 

2030 

2031 

2032 

Total 

1 Single Market, Innovation and Digital 

2 Cohesion, Resilience and Values 

2.1 Economic, Social and territorial 
cohesion 

2.2 Resilience and Values 

3 Natural Resources and Environment 

3.1 Market related expenditure and direct 
payments 

3.2 Other programmes of Natural 
Resources and Environment 

4 Migration and Border Management 

5 Security and Defence 

6 Neighbourhood and the World 

Total 

 1.8 

 1.0 

 0.9 

 0.4 

 0.6 

 0.0 

 0.5 

 0.0 

 0.2 

 0.0 

 1.0 

 0.4 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.1 

 0.0 

 2.2 

 0.0 

 0.1 

 0.0 

 0.1 

 0.0 

 0.1 

 0.3 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.4 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 4.4 

 1.4 

 1.4 

 0.0 

 2.9 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.1 

 0.1 

 0.1 

 1.0 

 4.1 

 2.2 

 0.1 

 0.1 

 1.3 

 5.0 

 0.1 

 0.1 

 0.0 

 1.1 

 2.0 

 0.1 

 0.2 

 0.0 

 0.3 

 1.1 

 0.1 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.1 

 0.5 

 0.4 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.1 

 0.8 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 2.9 

 0.5 

 0.3 

 3.9 

 13.4 

14 

 
Table 1.4 – Payments for 2028-2034 commitments 

MFF Heading 

2028 

2029 

2030 

2031 

2032 

2033 

2034 

Total 

1. Economic, social and territorial cohesion, 
agriculture, rural and maritime prosperity and 
security 

 108.3 

 122.7 

 150.9 

 150.7 

 157.8 

 144.3 

 130.3 

 965.0 

2. Competitiveness, prosperity and security 

 14.8 

 40.6 

 57.4 

 68.8 

 73.1 

 82.9 

 86.2 

 423.7 

3. Global Europe 

4. Administration 

Total 

 4.8 

 9.9 

 14.6 

 19.6 

 24.8 

 28.9 

 32.3 

 134.9 

 14.9 

 15.6 

 16.3 

 16.9 

 17.5 

 18.1 

 18.7 

 117.9 

 142.8 

 188.8 

 239.1 

 256.0 

 273.2 

 274.2 

 267.5 

1 641.5 

15 

 
Table 2 – Forecast decommitments 2026-2027 

MFF Heading 

Completion 

MFF 

Total 

1 Single Market, Innovation and Digital 

2 Cohesion, Resilience and Values 

2.1 Economic, Social and territorial cohesion 

2.2 Resilience and Values 

3 Natural Resources and Environment 

3.2 Other programmes of Natural Resources and Environment 

4 Migration and Border Management 

5 Security and Defence 

6 Neighbourhood and the World 

Total 

 0.5 

 0.6 

 0.5 

 0.1 

 3.2 

 3.2 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 0.0 

 4.4 

 0.5 

 0.3 

 0.0 

 0.3 

 0.1 

 0.1 

 0.2 

 0.0 

 0.1 

 1.2 

 1.0 

 1.0 

 0.5 

 0.4 

 3.2 

 3.2 

 0.2 

 0.0 

 0.1 

 5.5 

16 

 
 
Table 3 – Long-term forecast of outflows for NextGenerationEU 

Programme 

2026 

2027 

Total 

Horizon Europe 

InvestEU  

European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) 

European Social Fund (ESF) 

European Recovery and Resilience Facility 

Union Civil Protection Mechanism (RescEU) 

European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) 

Just Transition Fund 

Total 

0.2 

1.2 

0.0 

0.0 

100.4 

0.5 

1.4 

3.3 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.2 

1.2 

0.0 

0.0 

100.4 

0.5 

1.4 

3.3 

107.0 

0.1 

107.1 

17 

 
Table 4 – Change in the total outstanding commitments from 2026 to 2034 

Source 

RAL start-2026 
(estimate)* 

Commitments  

2026-2034 

Payments  

2026-2034 

Decommitments  

RAL end-2034 

2026-2027 

MFF  

NGEU  

Total 

 355.9 

 107.4 

2 350.4 

 0.1 

 463.3 

2 350.5 

2 368.8 

 107.1 

2 475.9 

 5.5 

 0.4 

 5.9 

 331.9 

 0.0 

 331.9 

* The RAL at the start of 2025 excludes amounts generated from other revenues (excluding NextGenerationEU), which is not included in the table. 

18 

 
 
 
Table 5 – Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget over 2026-2030 

INFLOWS 

2026 

2027 

2028 

2029 

2030 

Total 

Own Resources ceiling in % of EU Gross 
National Income 

of which temporary increase for NGEU 

Own Resources ceiling expressed in EUR 
billion* 

of which temporary increase for NGEU 

Net amount of traditional own 
resources** 

National contributions 

a 

b 

of which  

VAT-based own resource 

Plastic-based own resource 

GNI-based own resource 

2.00% 

0.60% 

385.2 

111.5 

2.00% 

0.60% 

398.1 

115.6 

2.00% 

0.60% 

411.1 

119.4 

2.00% 

0.60% 

424.6 

123.3 

2.00% 

0.60% 

437.8 

127.4 

21.4 

22.1 

22.9 

23.7 

24.4 

114.5 

167.4 

171.2 

101.5 

85.6 

30.9 

556.6 

24.8 

25.6 

26.4 

27.3 

28.1 

132.1 

6.8 

6.8 

135.8 

138.8 

6.8 

68.3 

6.7 

51.6 

6.7 

33.8 

-3.9*** 

390.6 

Total own resources 

c=a+b 

188.7 

193.3 

124.42 

109.3 

55.4 

671.1 

of which own resources to finance NGEU 
liabilities**** 

8.02 

19 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
INFLOWS 

2026 

2027 

2028 

2029 

2030 

Total 

Other revenue (incl. provisional UK 
contribution) 

d 

3.5 

3.3 

3.0 

2.7 

2.6 

15.2 

TOTAL REVENUE 

c+d 

192.2 

196.6 

127.4 

112.0 

58.0 

686.3 

* Own Resources ceiling – calculated based on the Spring 2025 economic forecast for the Gross National Income of the EU27  

** Traditional own resources are estimated on the basis of 25% retention rate for collection costs.  

*** For 2030 the amount of the GNI OR results in surplus which will be returned to the Member States.  

**** For 2026 and 2027 based on current financial programming. 

20 

 
 
Table 6 – Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget of 2028-2034 MFF 

INFLOWS 

2028 

2029 

2030 

2031 

2032 

2033 

2034 

Total 

Own Resources ceiling in % of EU Gross National 
Income* 

2.35% 

2.35% 

2.35% 

2.35% 

2.35% 

2.35% 

2.35% 

Own Resources ceiling expressed in EUR billion 

483.1 

498.9 

514.4 

530.2 

546.3 

562.7 

579.5 

Total Own resources: 

a 

266.7 

297.7 

294.1 

289.9 

274.5 

271.8 

264.3 

1 959.0 

of which  

Net amount of traditional own resources** 

34.5 

35.7 

36.8 

38.0 

39.2 

40.4 

41.6 

266.3 

VAT-based own resource 

26.6 

27.5 

28.3 

29.2 

30.1 

31.0 

31.9 

204.4 

Plastic-based own resource 

European Emission Trading System based own 
resource (ETS1) 

E-waste based own resource 

Tobacco Excise Duty own resource (TEDOR) 

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) 

Corporate Resource for Europe (CORE) 

9.3 

8.8 

16.2 

13.0 

0.9 

7.4 

9.5 

9.7 

9.9 

10.1 

10.3 

10.5 

69.2 

11.7 

11.3 

13.0 

11.7 

10.3 

8.8 

75.6 

16.5 

12.7 

1.0 

7.5 

16.7 

12.4 

1.3 

7.5 

16.9 

12.8 

1.5 

7.6 

17.1 

12.5 

1.9 

7.7 

17.3 

12.2 

2.0 

7.8 

17.4 

118.0 

12.7 

2.2 

7.9 

88.3 

10.8 

53.3 

GNI-based own resource 

149.9 

175.8 

170.2 

161.0 

144.3 

140.5 

131.4 

1 073.0 

Other revenue (incl. fees and provisional UK 
contribution, European Travel Information and 
Authorisation System (ETIAS) fee) 

b 

3.3 

3.0 

2.9 

2.9 

2.9 

2.9 

3.1 

21.1 

TOTAL REVENUE 

c=a+b 

270.0 

300.7 

297.1 

292.8 

277.4 

274.7 

267.5 

1 980.1 

* Own Resources ceiling – calculated based on the Spring 2025 economic forecast for the Gross National Income of the EU27  

21 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
** Traditional own resources are estimated on the basis of a 10% retention rate for collection costs.  

22 

 
i In light of the upcoming deadline for the tabling of the Commission proposals for the next MFF package, complying 
with the deadline provided for in Article 253(2) of the Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/2509 was not possible for this 
report. 

ii Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/2509 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 September 2024 on the 
financial rules applicable to the general budget of the Union (recast), OJ L 2024/2559, 26.9.2024. 

iii COM(2021)343, 30.6.2021. This is the first edition of this report for the 2021-27 MFF period. 

iv Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2093 laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 
to 2027, OJ L 433I, 22.12.2020, p. 11. 

v Council Regulation (EU) 2020/2094 establishing a European Union Recovery Instrument  to support the recovery in 
the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis, OJ L 433I , 22.12.2020, p. 23 (‘NextGenerationEU’). 

vi Unless otherwise specified, all amounts in the report are expressed in current prices. 

vii Council Regulation [(EU, Euratom) 20XX/XXX * COM(2025) 571  

viii  Council  Decision  (EU,  Euratom)  2020/2053  of  14  December  2020  on  the  system  of  own  resources  of  the 
European Union and repealing Decision 2014/335/EU, Euratom, OJ L 424, 15.12.2020, p. 1. 

ix OJ C66 I, 19.2.2019, p.1. 

x Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council, Technical adjustment of the 
multiannual financial framework for 2026 in accordance with Article 4 of Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 
2020/2093 laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 2027. COM(2025) 800 final. 

xi Statement of estimates of the European Commission for the financial year 2026. SEC(2025) 250. 

xii Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/765 of 29 February 2024 amending Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2093 
laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 2027, OJ L, 2024/765, 29.02.2024. 

xiii Article 5 of the MFF Regulation provides for the additional allocation in commitment and payment appropriations 
for  a  pre-defined  list  of  programmes,  for  an  amount  equivalent  to  certain  types  of  fines  within  pre-defined 
minimum and maximum amounts. 

23 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
xiv Joint declaration by the European Parliament, the Council and the Commission on the re-use of decommitted 
funds in relation to the research programme (C/2024/1972), OJ C, C/2024/1972, 29.02.2024. 

xv Regulation (EU) 2024/795 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 29 February 2024 establishing the 
Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP), and amending Directive 2003/87/EC and Regulations (EU). 
2021/1058, (EU) 2021/1056, (EU) 2021/1057, (EU) No 1303/2013, (EU) No 223/2014, (EU) 2021/1060, (EU) 
2021/523, (EU) 2021/695, (EU) 2021/697 and (EU) 2021/241, OJ L, 2024/795, 29.02.2024. 

xvi The amount is complemented by EUR 20 billion REPowerEU grants financed under the Emissions Trading Scheme 
(ETS) and EUR 2.1 billion in transfers from the Brexit Adjustment Reserve (BAR). 

xvii Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council, Long-term forecast of future inflows 
and outflows of the EU budget (2025-2029). COM(2024) 276 final. 

xviii The cut-off date for reporting related to STEP is March 2025. 

xix Member States decided to transfer funds between direct payments and rural development. The result was set out 
in Commission Delegated Regulation 2023/813 of 8 February 2023. 

xx The cut-off date for NextGenerationEU figures is 16 May 2025. 

24