Drought in Europe : June 2025 : GDO analytical report.
Date: 2025-06-23
Institutions: Joint Research Centre
Subjects: Europe, atmospheric conditions, climatology, drought, environmental indicator, environmental monitoring, natural hazard, report, water resources

Drought in Europe 
June 2025 

GDO Analytical Report 

ISSN 1831-9424 

Toreti, A., Bavera, D., Acosta Navarro, J., Barbosa, P., 
De Jager, A., Ficchi, A., Fioravanti, G., Grimaldi, S., 
Hrast Essenfelder, A., Magni, D., Mazzeschi, M., 
McCormick, N., Salamon, P., Santos Nunes, S. and 
Volpi, D., 

2025 

EUR 40361 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
knowledge service. It aims to 
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Contact information  
Name: Andrea Toreti  
Address: Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 ISPRA (VA), Italy 
Email: Andrea.TORETI@ec.europa.eu  

EU Science Hub 
https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu 

JRC142857 

EUR 40361 

PDF 

ISBN 978-92-68-28765-1 

ISSN 1831-9424 

doi:10.2760/1544910   KJ-01-25-344-EN-N 

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© European Union, 2025  

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Page 3, Figure 3, source: The KNMI Climate Explorer 

How to cite this report: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Toreti, A., Bavera, D., Acosta Navarro, J., Barbosa, P., De Jager, A., 
Ficchi, A., Fioravanti, G., Grimaldi, S., Hrast Essenfelder, A., Magni, D., Mazzeschi, M., McCormick, N., Salamon, P., Santos Nunes, S. and Volpi, 
D.,  Drought  in  Europe  -  June  2025 
  GDO  Analytical  Report,  Publications  Office  of  the  European  Union,  Luxembourg,  2025, 
https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/1544910, JRC142857. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GDO Analytical Report 

Drought in Europe - June 2025 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS)   GDO/EDO data up to 10/06/2025  

Abstract .................................................................................................................................................................. 1 

Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) ......................................................................................................................... 1 

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ................................................................................................................... 2 

Temperature ........................................................................................................................................................... 3 

Soil moisture ........................................................................................................................................................... 4 

Hydrology ................................................................................................................................................................ 4 

Vegetation .............................................................................................................................................................. 6 

Seasonal forecast ................................................................................................................................................... 6 

Reported impacts.................................................................................................................................................... 9 

Appendix: GDO and EDO indicators of drought-related information ................................................................... 10 

Glossary of terms and acronyms ......................................................................................................................... 11 

GDO and EDO indicators versioning ..................................................................................................................... 11 

Distribution ........................................................................................................................................................... 11 

List of Figures ....................................................................................................................................................... 12 

Authors ................................................................................................................................................................. 13 

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu 

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GDO Analytical Report 

Drought in Europe - June 2025 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS)   GDO/EDO data up to 10/06/2025  

Abstract 

•  Drought conditions are affecting large parts of central, northern, and eastern Europe as well as northern 

Africa, the eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East. 

• 

• 

• 

• 

Recent above-average temperatures in western Europe have exacerbated the effects of the prolonged 
lack of precipitation, particularly on soil moisture.  

Low flow conditions in river discharge are detected mostly in eastern Europe, in the Baltic Sea region, and 
in some rivers of Türkiye. 

Impacts  on  vegetation  are  emerging  in  eastern  Europe.  The  already  affected  areas  are  mostly  in  the 
Mediterranean region. 

Seasonal forecasts point to a warmer than usual 2025 summer with dry conditions in a very large region 
extending from the UK to the Black Sea.  

Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) 
By late May, drought conditions have been gradually deteriorating across southern, eastern, and central Europe, 
with the Maghreb, the eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East regions continuing to experience severe and 
prolonged drought. 

According  to  the  Combined  Drought  Indicator  (CDI) 1  for  late  May  2025  (Fig.  1),  several  regions  have  been 
experiencing  warning  drought  conditions,  including  the  Baltic  Sea  region,  Ireland,  the  UK,  northern  France, 
Benelux, part of Germany, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Belarus, most of Ukraine,  southern Russia, central and 
western  Romania,  Bulgaria,  some  regions  of  Greece,  small  areas  of  the  western  Balkans,  Cyprus,  most  of 
Türkiye, Malta, and the south-eastern Mediterranean islands. Some regions in central Europe, the Baltic Sea 
region,  Scandinavia,  southern Italy  and Greece  are under  watch  conditions  due to  a prolonged precipitation 
deficit.  Some  areas  have  been  experiencing  more  severe  alert  drought  conditions,  particularly  in  the 
Mediterranean region, including south-eastern Spain, Cyprus, and most of North Africa, as well as central and 
south-eastern Türkiye and the Middle East. Alert conditions are rapidly intensifying in large areas of Ukraine 
and in the neighbouring countries, impacting crops and vegetation. Similar conditions are emerging in some 
areas of central Europe, the Baltic and the UK. 

1 For more details on the CDI, and the other GDO and EDO indicators of drought-related information used in the report, see the Appendix 
at the end of the document. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/  

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GDO Analytical Report 

Drought in Europe - June 2025 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS)   GDO/EDO data up to 10/06/2025  

Figure  1:  The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI), based on a combination of indicators of precipitation, soil 
moisture, and vegetation conditions, for late May 2025.1  

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) 
In late May 2025, SPI-3 (i.e. SPI computed for an accumulation period of 3 months)2 shows wetter than normal 
conditions over large areas in the Iberian Peninsula, Italy, southern France, the Balkans, north-eastern Europe, 
and Norway. Dry anomalies are mainly detected in the UK, Ireland, northern France, Benelux, most of Germany, 
Denmark, southern Scandinavia (Fig. 2). 

Figure 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3), for the 3-month accumulation period ending in late May 
2025.2  

2 For more details on the SPI, and the other GDO and EDO indicators of drought-related information used in this report, see the Appendix 
at the end of the document. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/  

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GDO Analytical Report 

Drought in Europe - June 2025 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS)   GDO/EDO data up to 10/06/2025  

Temperature 
In  April-May  2025,  most  of  western  and  northern  Europe  experienced  above-average  temperatures.  The 
positive temperature anomalies affected mostly the Alps, south-western Scandinavia, north-western France, 
the UK, Ireland, northern Africa, and the Middle East with anomalies above 1.5 °C and peaks above 2.5 °C, for 
instance in Iceland and southern Norway (Fig. 3). 

Figure 3: Average temperature anomalies (ERA5, baseline 1991-2020) for April-May 2025. Source: The KNMI 
Climate Explorer.3 

3 The KNMI Climate Explorer: https://climexp.knmi.nl  

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/  

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GDO Analytical Report 

Drought in Europe - June 2025 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS)   GDO/EDO data up to 10/06/2025  

Soil moisture 
By looking at the conditions in late May 2025, the Soil Moisture Index Anomaly4 shows negative anomalies 
over large areas of the Euro-Mediterranean region, consistently with the precipitation deficit of the previous 
months, as shown by the SPI-3 (see Fig. 2). Wide regions in central-northern Europe, and particularly the UK, 
Ireland, northern France, Benelux, some regions in Germany, Denmark, southern Scandinavia, and the western 
Baltic  regions  are  under  drier-than-usual  conditions.  Some  regions  in  eastern  and  south-eastern  Europe, 
including  Bulgaria,  Romania,  Ukraine,  Türkiye,  and  south-western  Russia  are  still  under  drier-than-usual 
conditions due to the prolonged precipitation deficit, despite the most recent SPI-3 positive anomaly. Some of 
the regions with the strongest negative precipitation anomalies were also affected by high temperatures (e.g. 
the UK and  Ireland), which accelerated  water loss  from the soil  due to increased evapotranspiration. Some 
areas show a Soil Moisture Anomaly below -2, corresponding to a very strong negative anomaly and being the 
driest class for this indicator. In the Mediterranean region, particularly in north-western Africa, and the eastern 
part of the basin drier than usual soil conditions are identified (Fig. 4).  

Figure 4: Soil Moisture Index Anomaly for late May 2025.4   

Hydrology 
In early June 2025, the Low-Flow Index (LFI) 5 shows critical hazard values mainly over eastern Europe and 
western Russia. The north-eastern part of Ukraine is particularly hit. Additionally, some localized critical river 
branches appear in the Balkans, Türkiye, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, northern France and some rivers in Italy. 
Northern Africa is still under low flow conditions and hit by a long-lasting drought (Fig. 5)6. The flow reduction 
only  partially  correlates  with  the  soil  moisture  anomaly  pattern  and  the  lack  of  precipitation  over  the  last 
months (Fig. 2). These differences may be due to snow-related processes, quite relevant in this period of the 
year.  

4 For more details on the Soil Moisture Anomaly indicator, and the other GDO and EDO indicators of drought-related information used in 
this report, see the Appendix at the end of the document. 
5 For more details on the Low-Flow Index (LFI), and the other GDO and EDO indicators of drought-related information used in the report, 
see the Appendix at the end of the document. 
6 The meteorological forcings may be characterized by temporal inconsistencies in areas with lower station coverage at the eastern 
domain of the Lisflood domain. Caution should be adopted when interpreting LFI in those areas. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/  

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GDO Analytical Report 

Drought in Europe - June 2025 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS)   GDO/EDO data up to 10/06/2025  

Figure 5: Low-Flow Index (LFI) for early June 2025. LFI ranges from 0 (no drought) to 1 (very high drought hazard).5 

The Rhine River, as shown by both the LFI and the measured data, is currently not affected by low flow levels 
(Fig.  6,  measured data  are provided  by  the International Commission for the Protection of the  Rhine  ICPR). 
Despite the lower precipitation (especially in the downstream basin), the Rhine River basin flow is sustained by 
snowmelt processes and by the upstream basin contribution.  

Figure 6: Low-Flow Index (LFI) at early June 2025 compared to low flow assessment based on ICPR data. A 
Low-Flow Index of 0 corresponds to no drought and a value of 1 to the highest drought hazard. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/  

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GDO Analytical Report 

Drought in Europe - June 2025 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS)   GDO/EDO data up to 10/06/2025  

Vegetation 
By looking at the conditions in late May 2025, the satellite-derived fAPAR (fraction of Photosynthetically Active 
Radiation) anomaly indicator7 shows vegetation stress mainly over northern Africa, western Syria and south-
eastern  Türkiye.  Over  large  areas  in  eastern  Europe,  negative  anomalies  are  emerging  (Fig.  7).  In  central-
northern Europe wide areas of missing data do not allow for a proper assessment of the vegetation condition. 
Dedicated information on the agricultural yield forecast for Europe is provided in the JRC MARS (Monitoring 
Agricultural ResourceS) Bulletins8. 

Figure 7: Satellite-derived fAPAR anomaly indicator (measuring photosynthetic activity of vegetation), for late 
May 2025.7  

Seasonal forecast 
Drier than normal conditions are forecasted from June to August 2025 by the multi-system ensemble (Fig. 8).  
over a very large region extending from the south-eastern UK to the Black Sea, and including most of eastern 
and  south-eastern  Europe  as  well  as  south-western  Russia.  Wetter  than  average  conditions  are  mainly 
predicted for Iceland, the northern UK, and Norway. There is in general a good agreement among the single 
systems that compose the multi-system ensemble, pointing to higher confidence on the predictions. 

7 For more details on the satellite-derived Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) anomaly indicator, and the 
other GDO and EDO indicators of drought-related information used in the report, see the Appendix at the end of the document. 
8 https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/monitoring-agricultural-resources-mars/jrc-mars-bulletin_en  

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/  

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GDO Analytical Report 

Drought in Europe - June 2025 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS)   GDO/EDO data up to 10/06/2025  

Figure 8: Multi-system Indicator for Forecasting Unusually Wet and Dry Conditions, June - August 2025, based on dynamic 
forecasting systems from eight producing centres : ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), CMCC 
(Centro  Euro-Mediterraneo  sui  Cambiamenti  Climatici),  DWD  (Deutscher  Wetterdienst),  ECCC  (Environment  and  Climate 
Change  Canada),  Météo  France,  NCEP  (USA  National  Centers  for  Environmental  Prediction),  UKMO  (UK  Meteorological 
Office), BOM (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia). The baseline period is 1993-2016.9 

Based on the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts10 (not shown here), warmer than 
usual conditions are likely to occur in Europe up to September 2025. Precipitation forecasts are generally below 
average, with slightly wetter forecast for northern Scandinavia and a dry anomaly for eastern Europe. Some 
differences and variability between models still give some uncertainties in terms of intensity and the spatial 
pattern of the seasonal precipitation forecast. However, they all point to a dry and hot summer in Europe. Close 
monitoring is required to assess the severity and the extent of the impacts over the coming season. 

As shown in Figure 9, most of eastern Europe is expected to be affected by low flow anomalies in July 2025, 
with extreme low flow anomaly potentially affecting western Russia, south-eastern Türkiye, and central-eastern 
Mediterranean islands. In the regions highlighted in Figure 9, the prolonged lack of precipitation and the warmer 
than average temperatures are expected to trigger impacts on agriculture, ecosystems and energy production. 
Water resource management should be planned cautiously to reduce the risks and the impacts. 

9 For more details on the Indicator for Forecasting Unusually Wet and Dry Conditions, and the other GDO and EDO indicators of drought-
related information used in the report, see the Appendix at the end of the document. 

10 https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts  

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/  

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GDO Analytical Report 

Drought in Europe - June 2025 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS)   GDO/EDO data up to 10/06/2025  

Figure 9: Seasonal forecast anomaly and uncertainty for July 2025 step within the 7 months simulation run 
from  June  to  December  2025,  information  aggregated  by  basin.  Different  colours  indicate  the  anomaly 
category,  while  the  colour  intensity  shows  the  confidence  level  in  the  anomalies,  with  the  lighter  colours 
highlighting higher uncertainty. The forecast anomaly and uncertainty signals are derived by comparing the 
EFAS hydrological forecast driven by ECMWF SEAS5 to the 99-value percentile climatology. The climatology is 
generated using ECMWF SEAS5 reforecasts over a 20-year period.11 (See also Technical Note below). 

Technical note: 

▪ 

The regions displayed in Fig. 10 are 204 major basins within the EFAS domain, the basin 
delineation was done semi-automatically, and the basin borders align with the 1 arcmin (~1.5 km) 
OS LISFLOOD river network in EFAS. This allows large-scale variability in weather to be captured, 
and forecast information to be summarized. The map in Fig. 10 shows the forecast river flow 
anomaly per region for July 2025 step within the 7 months simulation run from June to December 
2025. Different colours indicate the level of anomalies, while the colour intensity shows the 
confidence level in the anomalies, with the lighter colours highlighting lower confidence. 

▪ 

The analysis results shown in Fig. 10 are based on the OS LISFLOOD hydrological model outputs 
driven by 51 ensemble members of the ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecast. More information on OS 

Lisflood (https://ec-jrc.github.io/lisflood/)  

1992. Additional and updated information: Open Source 

11 Source: The CEMS European Flood Awareness System (EFAS): https://www.efas.eu, documentation at EFAS sub-seasonal and seasonal 
forecasting - Copernicus Emergency Management Service - CEMS - ECMWF Confluence Wiki 

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/  

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GDO Analytical Report 

Drought in Europe - June 2025 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS)   GDO/EDO data up to 10/06/2025  

Reported impacts 
The European JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop Monitoring in Europe, of May 202512 reported that spring 2025 has 
seen stark regional weather contrasts affecting European agriculture. North-western Europe (Benelux, northern 
France,  Germany,  Poland,  Sweden)  faces  severe  rainfall  deficit,  leading  to  critically  low  soil  moisture  and 
concerns over winter/spring crop yields, though impacts remain limited due to cooler temperatures. Conversely, 
the Iberian Peninsula, Italy, and Greece have experienced abundant rainfall, boosting growing conditions and 
forecasting 15 20% higher yields in Spain/Portugal. However, sowing delays persist in northern Spain/Portugal 
due to excessive rain. In the western Maghreb (Morocco, Algeria), eastern Ukraine, and Cyprus, irreversible yield 
declines are expected. The drought in the Maghreb and Ukraine caused crop failures, while Cyprus faced an 
early winter end, dry spells, and cold waves. Earlier drought concerns in Bulgaria and Romania have eased due 
to recent adequate rainfall. Overall, weather extremes are reshaping regional agricultural outcomes. 

According to GEOGLAM (Group on Earth Observation Global Agricultural Monitoring) Crop Monitor bulletins of 
May 202513 Europe faces significant drought impacts on crop conditions, particularly for wheat, maize, and 
soybeans. Northern, central, and eastern Europe are experiencing abnormally dry to drought conditions, with 
June forecasts indicating above-average temperatures and potential below-average precipitation in eastern 
Europe,  exacerbating  stress  on  crops.  As  for  wheat,  dry  weather  in  the  EU  (especially  northern  and  central 
regions)  is  concerning  as  winter  wheat  enters  the  critical  flowering  stage,  while  prolonged  dryness  in 
southeastern Anatolia and drought/frosts in the Ukrainian southern and eastern regions threaten yields. Maize 
sowing in the EU is nearing completion under mostly favourable conditions, but drought persists in Ukrainian 
eastern and southern areas. Soybean sowing in Ukraine also faces challenges due to soil moisture deficits in 
drought-affected regions. Overall, the drought reveals regional differences in crop resilience, with northern and 
eastern Europe bearing the brunt of adverse weather, while southern European conditions remain relatively 
stable. 

12 https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC141393      
13 https://www.cropmonitor.org/  

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/  

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GDO Analytical Report 

Drought in Europe - June 2025 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS)   GDO/EDO data up to 10/06/2025  

Appendix: GDO and EDO indicators of drought-related information14 

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) is used to identify areas 
that may be affected by agricultural drought. The CDI is derived by combining the Standardized Precipitation 
Index (SPI), the Soil Moisture Index Anomaly (SMA), and the fAPAR anomaly. Areas are classified according to 
three primary drought classes: (1) "Watch", indicating less than normal precipitation; (2) "Warning", indicating 
that  also  soil  moisture  is  in  deficit;  (3)  "Alert",  indicating  that  also  vegetation  shows  signs  of  stress.  Three 
 i.e. "Recovery", "Temporary Soil Moisture Recovery" and "Temporary Vegetation Recovery" 
additional classes 

 identify the stages of drought recovery processes in terms of impacts on soil moisture and vegetation. 

The  Standardized  Precipitation  Index  (SPI)  provides  information  on  the  intensity  and  duration  of  the 
precipitation deficit (or surplus). SPI is used to monitor the occurrence of drought. The lower (i.e., more negative) 
the SPI, the more intense is the drought. SPI can be computed for different accumulation periods: the 3-month 
period  is  often  used  to  evaluate  agricultural  drought  and  the  12-month  (or  even  24-month)  period  for 
hydrological drought, when rivers fall dry and groundwater tables lower. 

Lack of precipitation induces a reduction of soil water content. The Soil Moisture Index Anomaly provides 
an assessment of the deviations from normal conditions of root zone water content. It is a direct measure of 
drought associated with the difficulty of plants in extracting water from the soil. 

The  satellite-based  fraction  of  Absorbed  Photosynthetically  Active  Radiation  (fAPAR)  monitors  the 
fraction of solar energy absorbed by leaves. It is a measure of vegetation health and growth. Negative fAPAR 
anomalies with respect to the long-term average are associated with negative impacts on vegetation. 

The  Multi-system  Indicator  for  Forecasting  Unusually  Wet  and  Dry  Conditions  provides  early  risk 
information for Europe. The indicator is computed from forecasted SPI-1, SPI-3, and SPI-6 derived from eight 
components:  ECMWF  (European  Centre  for  Medium-Range  Weather  Forecasts),  CMCC  (Centro  Euro-
Mediterraneo  sui  Cambiamenti  Climatici),  DWD  (Deutscher  Wetterdienst),  ECCC  (Environment  and  Climate 
Change  Canada),  Météo  France,  NCEP  (USA  National  Centers  for  Environmental  Prediction),  UKMO  (UK 
Meteorological Office), BOM (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia). 

14 For more details on the GDO and EDO indicators: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/factsheets  

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/  

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Drought in Europe - June 2025 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS)   GDO/EDO data up to 10/06/2025  

Glossary of terms and acronyms 

▪  BOM: Bureau of Meteorology, Australia 

▪  GEOGLAM: Group on Earth Observation Global 

Agricultural Monitoring 

▪  CDI: Combined Drought Indicator 
▪  CMCC: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui 

Cambiamenti Climatici 

▪  CEMS: Copernicus Emergency Management 

▪ 

Service 

▪  HCWI: Heat and Cold Wave Index 
▪ 

ICPR: International Commission for the 
Protection of the Rhine 
JRC: Joint Research Centre 

▪  DWD: Deutscher Wetterdienst 

▪  KNMI: Royal Netherlands Meteorological 

▪  EC: European Commission 

Institute 
LFI: Low-Flow Index 

▪ 

▪  ECCC: Environment and Climate Change Canada  ▪  MARS: Monitoring Agricultural Resources 

▪  ECMWF: European Centre for Medium-Range 

Weather Forecasts 

▪  NCEP: National Centers for Environmental 
Prediction (United States of America) 

▪  EDO: European Drought Observatory 
▪  EFFIS: European Forest Fire Information 

▪  SEA5: Seasonal Forecasting System 5 
▪  SMA: Soil Moisture Anomaly 

System 

▪  ERA5: ECMWF Reanalysis v5 

▪  SPI: Standardized Precipitation Index 

▪  ERCC: European Emergency Response 

▪  SWE: Snow Water Equivalent 

Coordination Centre 
▪  EU: European Union 
▪ 

fAPAR: Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically 
Active Radiation 

▪  GDO: Global Drought Observatory 

▪  UKMO: United Kingdom Met Office 
▪  VIIRS: Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite 

GDO and EDO indicators versioning 
The GDO and EDO indicators appear in this report with the following versions: 

GDO, EDO indicator 

▪  Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) 
▪ 
▪ 

Soil Moisture Index (SMI) Anomaly (SMA) 
Low-Flow Index (LFI) 

fAPAR (fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation) Anomaly (VIIRS) 

▪ 
▪  Multi-system Indicator for Forecasting Unusually Wet and Dry Conditions  
▪ 

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (ERA5) 

Version 

v.4.0.0 
v.3.0.2 
v.3.1.0 

v.3.0.0 
v.2.0.0 
v.2.0.0 

Check https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/download for more details on indicator versions. 

Distribution 
For  use  by  the  ERCC  and  related  partners,  and  publicly  available  for  download  at  GDO  website: 
https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/reports 

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/  

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GDO Analytical Report 

Drought in Europe - June 2025 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS)   GDO/EDO data up to 10/06/2025  

List of Figures 

Figure 1: The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) 2, based on a combination of indicators of precipitation, soil 
moisture, and vegetation conditions, for late May 2025.1 .................................................................................... 2 
Figure 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3), for the 3-month accumulation period ending in late May 
2025.2 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2 
Figure 3: Average temperature anomalies (ERA5, baseline 1991-2020) for April-May 2025. Source: The 
KNMI Climate Explorer. ........................................................................................................................................... 3 
Figure 4: Soil Moisture Index Anomaly for late May 2025.4 ................................................................................ 4 
Figure 5: Low-Flow Index (LFI) for early June 2025. LFI ranges from 0 (no drought) to 1 (very high drought 
hazard).5 .................................................................................................................................................................. 5 
Figure 6: Low-Flow Index (LFI) at early June 2025 compared to low flow assessment based on ICPR data. A 
Low-Flow Index of 0 corresponds to no drought and a value of 1 to the highest drought hazard. .................... 5 
Figure 7: Satellite-derived fAPAR anomaly indicator (measuring photosynthetic activity of vegetation), for 
late May 2025.7 ...................................................................................................................................................... 6 
Figure 8: Multi-system Indicator for Forecasting Unusually Wet and Dry Conditions, June - August 2025, 
based on dynamic forecasting systems from eight producing centres : ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-
Range Weather Forecasts), CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici), DWD (Deutscher 
Wetterdienst), ECCC (Environment and Climate Change Canada), Météo France, NCEP (USA National Centers 
for Environmental Prediction), UKMO (UK Meteorological Office), BOM (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia). The 
baseline period is 1993-2016. ............................................................................................................................... 7 
Figure 9: Seasonal forecast anomaly and uncertainty for July 2025 step within the 7 months simulation run 
from June to December 2025, information aggregated by basin. Different colours indicate the anomaly 
category, while the colour intensity shows the confidence level in the anomalies, with the lighter colours 
highlighting higher uncertainty. The forecast anomaly and uncertainty signals are derived by comparing the 
EFAS hydrological forecast driven by ECMWF SEAS5 to the 99-value percentile climatology. The climatology is 
generated using ECMWF SEAS5 reforecasts over a 20-year period. (See also Technical Note below)................ 8 

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/  

12 

 
 
 
 
 
 
GDO Analytical Report 

Drought in Europe - June 2025 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS)   GDO/EDO data up to 10/06/2025  

Authors 

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Dir. Societal Resilience and Security, Disaster Risk 
Management Unit  
Drought Team 
Toreti A. (Team Leader), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

Bavera D., Arcadia SIT, Milano, Italy. 

Acosta Navarro J., European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

Barbosa P., European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

de Jager A., European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

Ficchì A., NRB Italy / Trasys International. 

Fioravanti G., European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

Hrast Essenfelder A., European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

Magni D., Arcadia SIT, Milano, Italy. 

Mazzeschi M., Unisystems, Luxembourg. 

Santos Nunes S., Seidor, Milano, Italy. 

Volpi D, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

Floods Team 
Salamon P. (Team Leader), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

Grimaldi S., European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

McCormick N., European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

Disclaimer and Legal Notice: this report by the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) is based 
on products under constant development that may change at any time without notice. It was generated using 
the  Copernicus  Emergency  Management  Service  information  (2023).  The  views  here  expressed  may  not  be 
regarded  as  an  official  position  of  the  European  Commission  (EC)  in  any  circumstances.  The  designations 
employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever 
on  the  part  of  the  European  Union  concerning  the  legal  status  of  any  country,  territory  or  area  or  of  its 
authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/  

13 

 
 
 
 
 
 
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