Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION with a view to bringing an end to the situation of an excessive deficit in Belgium
Date: 2025-05-21
Institutions: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission
Subjects: Belgium, budget deficit, budgetary control, economic policy, economic reform, gross domestic product, public debt, public finance, stability pact

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   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 21.5.2025  COM(2025) 264 final  Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION with a view to bringing an end to the situation of an excessive deficit in Belgium    
 
Recommendation for a 

COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION 

with a view to bringing an end to the situation of an excessive deficit in Belgium 

THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, 

Having  regard  to  the  Treaty  on  the  Functioning  of  the  European  Union  (TFEU),  and  in 
particular Article 126(7) thereof, 

Having regard to the recommendation from the Commission, 

Whereas: 

(1) 

(2) 

(3) 

(4) 

(5) 

According  to  Article  126  of  the  TFEU,  Member  States  shall  avoid  excessive 
government deficits. 

The Stability and Growth Pact is based on the objective of sound government finances 
as  a  means  of  strengthening  the  conditions  for  price  stability  and  for  strong, 
sustainable and inclusive growth underpinned by financial stability, thereby supporting 
the achievement of the Union’s objectives for sustainable growth and employment. 

On  30  April  2024,  the  EU’s  reformed  economic  governance  framework  entered  into 
force.  The  framework  includes  Regulation  (EU)  2024/12631  of  29 April 2024  on  the 
effective  coordination  of  economic  policies  and  multilateral  budgetary  surveillance 
and  repealing  Council  Regulation  (EC)  No  1466/97.  It  also  includes  Council 
Regulation  (EU)  2024/1264  amending  Council  Regulation  (EC)  No  1467/972  on 
speeding  up  and  clarifying  the  implementation  of  the  excessive  deficit  procedure,  as 
well  as  Council  Directive  (EU)  2024/12653  of  29  April  2024  amending  Directive 
2011/85/EU on requirements for budgetary frameworks of the Member States. 

On 26 July 2024, the Council decided, in accordance with Article 126(6) TFEU, that 
an  excessive  deficit  existed  in  Belgium  due  to  non-compliance  with  the  deficit 
criterion4. 

Article 126(7) TFEU and Article 3(4) of Council Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 require 
the Council to adopt a recommendation addressed to the Member State concerned with 
a view to bringing the situation of excessive deficit to an end within a given period. In 
line  with  Article  3(4)  of  Council  Regulation  (EC)  1467/97,  that  recommendation  is 
also to establish a maximum deadline of six months for effective action to be taken by 
the Member State concerned to correct the excessive deficit, which can be reduced to 
three months  when warranted by the seriousness  of the situation. Furthermore, in  its 
recommendation,  the  Council  is  to  recommend  that  the  Member  State  implements  a 

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OJ L, 30.4.2024, ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1263/oj 
OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/1997/1467/2024-04-30. 
OJ L, 30.4.2024, ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/dir/2024/1265/oj. 
OJ L, 1.8.2024, ELI: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dec/2024/2125 

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corrective net expenditure5 path, which ensures that the general government deficit is 
brought and maintained below the 3% of GDP reference value within the deadline set 
in  that  recommendation.  Where  the  excessive  deficit  procedure  was  opened  on  the 
basis of the deficit criterion, the corrective net expenditure path is to be consistent with 
a minimum annual structural adjustment of at least 0.5% GDP as a benchmark for the 
years when the general government deficit is expected to exceed the reference value. 
The Commission  may, during a transition  period in  2025, 2026 and 2027, adjust the 
benchmark  to  take  into  account  the  increase  in  interest  expenditure  when  setting  the 
proposed  corrective  path  for  those  years,  taking  into  account  recital  23  of  Council 
Regulation (EU) 2024/1264.  

On  21  January  2025,  the  Council,  acting  upon  a  recommendation  from  the 
Commission,  issued  a  recommendation  under  Article  126(7)  TFEU  with  a  view  to 
bringing an end to the situation of an excessive government deficit in Belgium6. In that 
recommendation,  the  Council  noted  (cf.  recital  16)  that,  upon  submission  of  the 
national  medium-term  fiscal-structural  plan  by  Belgium,  its  assessment  by  the 
Commission  and endorsement by the Council, a new corrective net  expenditure path 
could  be  recommended  by  the  Council  under  Article  126(7)  TFEU,  upon  a 
recommendation  from  the  Commission.  The  present  recommendation  sets  a  new 
corrective net expenditure path, together with the endorsement of Belgium’s medium-
term  fiscal-structural  plan  by  the  Council.  The  new  corrective  net  expenditure  path 
extends the fiscal adjustment period from 4 to 7 years. 

Real  GDP  in  Belgium  grew  by  1.0%  in  2024,  mainly  driven  by  robust  private 
consumption.  According  to  the  European  Commission  Spring  2025  Forecast,  the 
economy is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2025, on the back of a positive contribution 
from  domestic  demand  while  net  exports  are  projected  to  contribute  negatively.  In 
2026, real GDP is expected to increase by 0.9%, again driven by domestic demand and 
improved,  although  still  negative,  contribution  from  net  export.  The  unemployment 
rate is expected to reach 6.1% in 2025 and 5.8% in 2026. Inflation is set to decrease 
from 4.3% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025 and ease further to 1.8% in 2026. 
According to the data provided by Eurostat on 22 April 20257, the general government 
deficit in Belgium stood at 4.5% of GDP in 2024 and data provided on 16 April 2025 
that the planned general government deficit for 2025 is 5.2% of GDP. The European 
Commission  Spring  2025  Forecast  projects  a  general  government  deficit  of  5.4%  of 
GDP in 2025 and 5.5% of GDP in 2026, thus above the reference value in both years. 
The structural deficit is projected at 4.8% in 2025 and is expected to decrease to 4.7% 
of GDP in 2026. 

General  government  debt  stood  at  104.7%  of  GDP  at  end-2024.  According  to  the 
European Commission Spring 2025 Forecast, it is projected to increase to 107.1% of 
GDP at end-2025 and 109.8% of GDP at end-2026, thus remaining above the 60% of 
GDP reference value. 

According  to  Article  2(2)  of  Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263,  'net  expenditure'  means  government  expenditure 
net of interest expenditure, discretionary revenue measures, expenditure on programmes of the Union fully 
matched by revenue from Union funds, national expenditure on co-financing of programmes funded by the 
Union, cyclical elements of unemployment benefit expenditure, and one-offs and other temporary measures. 
All  documents  related 
https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-and-fiscal-governance/stability-and-growth-
pact/corrective-arm-excessive-deficit-procedure/excessive-deficit-procedures-overview/belgium_en 
Eurostat  Euro  Indicators  published  on  22  April  2025.  See:  https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-
euro-indicators/w/2-22042025-ap 

the  excessive  deficit  procedure  of  Belgium  can  be  found  at: 

to 

(6) 

(7) 

(8) 

(9) 

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(10)  On 18 March 2025, Belgium submitted its first national medium-term fiscal-structural 
plan,  in  accordance  with  Articles  11  and  36(1),  point  (a)  of  Regulation  (EU) 
2024/1263.  The  plan  covers  the  period  2025-2029  and  presents  a  fiscal  adjustment 
over  seven  years.  The  Commission  Recommendation  of  21  May  2025  for  a  Council 
Recommendation  endorsing  the  national  medium-term  fiscal-structural  plan  of 
Belgium  for  the  years  2025  to  2029  and  endorsing  a  set  of  reforms  and  investment 
commitments  in  the  plan  underpinning  an  extension  of  the  adjustment  period 
recommends a net expenditure path that factors in all the necessary requirements of a 
corrective path and should therefore be recommended as the corrective net expenditure 
path  under  the  excessive  deficit  procedure.  The  corrective  net  expenditure  path  is 
consistent  with  a  minimum  annual  structural  adjustment  of  at  least  0.5 %  GDP  as  a 
benchmark for the years when the general government deficit is expected to exceed the 
reference  value,  in  line  with  Regulation  (EC)  1467/97.  While  the  corrective  net 
expenditure  path  in  2025  implies  a  structural  adjustment  of  0.25%  of  GDP, 
considering that the late formation  of the government  delayed the implementation  of 
new measures, this  is  compensated by  an adjustment exceeding  0.5% of GDP in  the 
following years. 

is  set  out 

(11)  Based  on  the  net  expenditure  path,  as  the  sole  operational  reference  for  monitoring 
compliance,  which 
the  Council 
Recommendation  endorsing  the  plan  of  Belgium,  and  based  on  the  European 
Commission  medium-term  government  debt  projection  framework  and  the  European 
Commission  Spring  2025  Forecast,  the  general  government  deficit  is  projected  to 
decrease from 5.4% of GDP in 2025 to 2.9% by 2030. In its plan, Belgium expects the 
deficit to fall below the 3% deficit reference value earlier, in 2029, based on the plan's 
assumptions. 

this  recommendation  and 

in 

in 

(12)  Based  on  the  corrective  net  expenditure  path  in  this  recommendation,  the  European 
Commission medium-term government debt projection framework, and the European 
Commission Spring 2025 Forecast, the general government debt would increase from 
104.7% of GDP at end-2024 to 109.6% in 2029. 

(13)  Abiding by the recommended net expenditure path should secure a lasting correction 
of the excessive deficit, while concrete measures should be geared towards enhancing 
the  quality  and  composition  of  the  public  finances,  preserving  investment  and 
reinforcing  the  growth  potential  of  the  economy.  Reforms  of  a  fiscal  and  broader 
economic nature (including the reforms underpinning the extension of the adjustment 
period, as specified in Annex II of the Commission Recommendation of 21 May 2025 
for a Council Recommendation endorsing the medium-term plan of Belgium), should 
improve the growth and resilience potential of the economy in a sustainable manner, 
and support fiscal sustainability. 

(14) 

In  line  with  Article  8(3)  of  Regulation  1467/97,  a  Council  decision  to  abrogate  the 
excessive  deficit  procedure  shall  only  be  taken  pursuant  to  Article  126(12)  TFEU 
where the deficit has been brought below the reference value and is projected by  the 
Commission to remain so in the current and following year. 

HEREBY RECOMMENDS: 

(1) 

Belgium  should  ensure  that  the  nominal  growth  rate  of  net  expenditure  does  not 
exceed the maxima established in Annex I.  

(2) 

Belgium should thus put an end to the excessive deficit situation by 2029. 

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(3) 

The  Council  establishes  the  deadline  of  15  October  2025  for  Belgium  to  take 
effective  action  and  present  the  necessary  measures  together  with  its  2026  Draft 
Budgetary Plan, to be submitted to the Commission in accordance with Article 6 of 
Regulation (EU) No 473/2013. Thereafter, Belgium should report on progress made 
in  the  implementation  of  this  recommendation  at  least  every  six  months,  in  the 
context  of  its  annual  progress  report  and  draft  budgetary  plan,  until  the  excessive 
deficit has been corrected. 

This Recommendation is addressed to Belgium.  

ANNEX I 
Maximum growth rates of net expenditure 
(annual and cumulative growth rates, in nominal terms) 
Belgium 

Years 

2025  2026  2027  2028  2029 

Growth rates 

Yearly 

3.6 

Cumulative (*) 

3.6 

2.5 

6.1 

2.5 

2.1 

2.1 

8.8 

11.1  13.4 

(*) The cumulative growth rates are calculated by reference to the base year of 2024. 

Done at Brussels, 

For the Council 
The President 

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