Putting countries on the cap? : pastoral visits of John Paul II and international trade.
Date: 2025-03-18
Institutions: European Central Bank
Subjects: diplomatic relations, economic development, international trade, religion, trade statistics

Working Paper Series 

Alexander Popov 

Putting countries on the cap? Pastoral 
visits of John Paul II and international 
trade 

No 3037 

Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank 
(ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. 

Abstract

During his reign from 1979 to 2005, Pope John Paul II visited 129 countries, more than the 263

Popes before him combined.

I document a significant increase in exports to trading partners with

a relatively high share of Catholics following a Pastoral visit, leading to a non-negligible increase in

aggregate exports. The biggest beneficiaries in terms of increased trade are visited countries that are at

lower stages of economic development and have relatively few Catholics and weak trade links. The effect

is absent for other prominent episodes, such as global sports events or visits by political dignitaries.

JEL classification: Z12, O1, F1

Keywords: Religion, economic development, international trade

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 1Non-technical summary

The question of whether leaders shape history or are nothing but accidental actors on the stage where

transformative events take place is as old as history itself. Making progress towards an answer has proved

challenging for the simple reason that leaders’ ascent to power is rarely accidental. More recently, economists

have contributed to identification by studying historical episodes where leaders have assumed power for

exogenous reasons, either because a democratically elected one died unexpectedly, or because of hereditary

succession in monarchies where leadership is independent of ability. What remains unclear however are the

macroeconomic implications of a single leader’s actions.

I this paper, I focus on a powerful and celebrated religious leader, Pope John Paul II. I employ an

empirical strategy that rests on three conceptual building blocks. First, the Pope is the undisputed leader

of a well-defined global institution, the Roman-Catholic church. Second, between 1979 and 2004, Pope John

Paul II visited 129 countries, more than the 263 Popes before him combined. Third, thanks to a combination

of his global profile and the advent of television, his visits were widely followed, with hundreds of millions

around the globe watching him give a sermon or hold mass. Because the Pope is the legitimate leader of

a well-defined religious community, his actions—including his foreign visits—are visible to that community

and are perceived by its members to be consequential. I ask whether one of the consequences of the Pope’s

travels is increased economic integration between the visited countries and the rest of the (Catholic) world.

The evidence suggests that in the five years following a visit to a foreign country by the Pope, trade

between that country and its trade partners with a large Catholic share of the population increased in a

meaningful and significant way. Numerically, exports to a trading partner with 54.3% (75th percentile),

relative to a trading partner with 1.1% (25th percentile) Catholics in the population were higher by between

17.5% and 27.2% during years 1 to 5 after a visit by the Pope. This effect is accompanied by a non-negligible

percentage-wise, but small relative to income, increase in aggregate exports in the years after the Pope’s

visit.

I also find that the effect of the Pope’s Pastoral visits on bilateral trade is much stronger for visited

countries that are at lower stages of economic development and have relatively few Catholics and weaker

economic ties with their trading partners. In all, my results provide tentative support for the notion that

an ecumenical message of reconciliation and dialogue by the popular leader of a large global community can

have economic side effects by intensifying commerce between countries.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 21 Introduction

Do leaders—through their personality and their actions—matter for growth and development? Or are famous

historical figures nothing but accidental actors in events entirely beyond any individual’s control? As old as

this question is, philosophers and historians are still sharply divided in their views. One school of thought has

maintained that a small number of leaders have played a decisive role in shaping certain landmark episodes,

and perhaps history as a whole (Carlyle, 1859; Keegan, 2003). The opposite view maintains that national

leaders are labels that society uses ex post to rationalize and commemorate transformative events that are

in essence mere stages of the unstoppable march of history (Tolstoy, 1869; Gemmill and Oakley, 1992).

Because a leader’s ascent to power is rarely a random event, establishing causality is difficult. Neverthe-

less, economists have managed to make an important contribution to this debate. Jones and Olken (2005)

use leaders’ death in office as a source of exogenous variation in leadership and show that GDP growth

increases when a new leader assumes power. Besley et al. (2011) use an expanded version of the same

dataset to show that growth is higher when national leaders are more highly educated. Blinder and Watson

(2016) document a significantly better performance of the US economy when the president is a Democrat

rather than a Republican. Ottinger and Voigtlander (2024) document a strong positive relationship between

rulers’ cognitive ability and state-level outcomes.

The empirical challenges involved in providing evidence for or against the ability of leaders to shape

economic development are even sharper in the case of religion. On the one hand, various studies have

tentatively documented that religious beliefs and practices may be a fundamental determinant of economic

growth (Acemoglu et al. 2001, 2005; Barro and McCleary 2003, 2005; Guiso et al., 2006). On the other

hand, the slow-moving nature of religion makes identification particularly challenging. Religious doctrine—

i.e., the set of principles that guide the faithful in their day-to-day activities—is fairly constant over time.

For example, during the two millennia of its existence, Christianity has experienced only two major shocks:

the Great Schism in 1054, whereby the Eastern Orthodox church split from the Roman Catholic church, and

the Reformation in 16th-century Europe which gave birth to Protestantism. The spread of one or another

religious denomination in different countries is also a gradual process that takes decades, if not centuries. For

these reasons, researchers have typically resorted to studying the long-term impact of religion on slow-moving

fundamentals, such as social norms and literacy.1

1For example, Protestantism appears to be superior to Catholicism in supporting long-run economic growth, either because

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 3In this paper, I study whether the actions of a powerful and celebrated religious leader, Pope John Paul

II, had a short-term effect on countries’ economic development and integration. To do so, I employ an

empirical strategy that rests on three conceptual building blocks. First, the Pope is the undisputed leader of

a well-defined institution, the Roman-Catholic church. Moreover, the Catholic dogma of Papal supremacy

posits that ”[...] the Pope enjoys, by divine institution, supreme, full, immediate, and universal power in

the care of souls.”2 Among else, this implies that his words and actions have an instructional value to all

Catholics around the world. Second, between 1979 and 2004, Pope John Paul II undertook 104 foreign trips

(known as ”Pastoral visits”), more than the 263 Popes before him combined, and in the process visited a

total of 129 countries, many of them more than once. Third, thanks to a combination of his global profile

and the advent of television, his visits were widely followed, with hundreds of millions around the globe

watching him give a sermon or hold mass. The confluence of these factors allows me to conjecture that

because the Pope is the legitimate leader of a well-defined religious community, his actions—including his

foreign visits—are visible to that community and are perceived by its members to be consequential. I ask

whether one of the consequences of the Pope’s travels is increased economic integration between the visited

countries and the rest of the (Catholic) world.

I find that in the years following a Pastoral visit to a foreign country by Pope John Paul II, exports by

that country increased in a meaningful and significant way, more so to trading partners with a relatively

large share of Catholics in the population. Numerically, exports to a trading partner with 54.3% (75th

percentile), relative to a trading partner with 1.1% (25th percentile) Catholics in the population were higher

by between 17.5% and 27.2% during years 1 to 5 after a visit by the Pope. This effect is accompanied by a

non-negligible percentage-wise, but small relative to income, increase in aggregate exports in the years after

the Pope’s visit.

I address a number of potential concerns with the structure of the analysis. The main result is attained

in specifications saturated with interactions of visited country dummies, trading partner country dummies,

and linear trends, which allows me to hold constant country-specific trends, as well as unobservable factors

that are constant at the country-pair level, such as physical distance or cultural similarity. I also show that

the Pope’s visits are not predicted by economic or political developments and that the result I document is

not a continuation of a pre-visit trend. Furthermore, the effect disappears when I examine other high-profile

it encourages a more robust work ethic (Weber, 1905) or because it favors universal schooling (Becker and Woessmann, 2009).

2See Paragraph 937 of the Catechism of the Catholic Church.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 4events that put a country in the news, such as a visit by the US President or by Queen Elisabeth II and

the hosting of Summer Olympics or a Football World Cup, and when I distinguish trading partners by the

relative size of their Protestant population.

What explains this effect? I examine three non-mutually exclusive hypotheses. The first one is that during

a foreign visit, the Pope explicitly encourages Catholics around the world to engage with the host country

on economic terms. I analyse 633 speeches given during the Pope’s 129 visits and I find rare occasions when

he mentions words like ”trade”, “economic”, or “globalization”. In contrast, his speeches are dominated by

messages related to “life and love”, “humans and society”, “church and faith”, “unity”, and ”ecumenical”.

The second hypothesis is that by simply visiting a country, the Pope raises its profile, or “puts it on the

map” for the global Catholic family, especially if Catholics around the world are for cultural or economic

reasons less connected with the visited country. I find that the effect on exports of a Pastoral visit to a

country is stronger if this country is relatively poor, if it has a relatively smaller share of Catholics, and if it

has relatively weaker bilateral trade with the partner country. The third hypothesis is that Catholics around

the world are buying souvenirs to commemorate the Pope’s visit. I analyse data on bilateral trade at the

product level, for 10 different sectors, and I find that after a Pastoral visit, the increase in exports I detect

takes place in half of them. I conclude that the second hypothesis is the only one for which there is tangible

support in the data—namely, that the increase in bilateral trade following a Pastoral visit is an economic

side effect of a powerful religious leader’s message that implicitly urges the community he leads to engage

more actively with fellow human beings, including those of different religious denominations.

My paper speaks to the literature on the impact of religion on economic development and growth.

Researchers have found that religion can have an effect on the provision of public goods (Benjamin et al., 2016;

Cantoni et al., 2018), state legitimacy (Chaney, 2013; Rubin, 2017; Auriol and Platteau, 2017), institutions

(Greif, 1994; Kuran, 2011; Pascali, 2016; Belloc et al., 2016; Platteau, 2017; Bisin et al., 2019), intolerance

(Becker and Pascali, 2019), generalized trust (Putnam, 1993; Inglehart, 1999; La Porta et al., 1997), human

capital and income (Valencia Caicedo, 2019; Botticini and Eckstein, 2005; Waldinger, 2017; Becker and

Woessmann, 2009), and economic growth (Barro and McCleary, 2003; Campante and Yanagizawa-Drott,

2015). I contribute to this literature in three distinct ways. First, I look at international trade, a factor

overlooked in this line of research. Second, while the literature has mostly focused on long-term effects (e.g.,

intensity of the Reformation in the 16th century and growth and literacy in 19th-century Prussia),3 I study

3Notable exceptions are Bassi and Rasul (2017) who show that persuasive messages related to fertility that were present

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 5the short-term implications of the actions of a religious leader, namely the Pope’s foreign travels. Third, I

demonstrate that deeper economic integration can take place as a side effect of a largely spiritual message

by an influential religious leader to the community he leads.

My paper also relates to the recent literature on the cultural and institutional determinants of bilateral

trade. For example, Anderson and Marcouiller (2002), Berkowitz et al. (2006), Nunn (2007), Guiso et al.

(2009), and Elfenbein et al. (2023) have documented a significant effect of country- and state-level factors,

as well as of pair-specific institutional factors that are slow moving over time—such as trust, religious

affiliation, or political behavior—on long-term bilateral trade.

I extend this literature by looking at the

short-run fluctuations in bilateral trade induced by the Pope’s travels. Finally, my work is reminiscent of

the analysis in Fuchs and Klann (2013) who find that countries officially receiving the Dalai Lama at the

highest political level are punished through a reduction of their exports to China.

2 Pope John Paul II: The Pilgrim Pope

During his reign from 1978 to 2005, Pope John Paul II embarked on 104 foreign trips, more than all previous

Popes combined.

In total he logged more than 1,167,000 kilometers (725,000 miles).4 He consistently

attracted large crowds during his travels, which were often among the largest ever assembled. While some

of his trips (such as to the United States and Israel) were to places that were previously visited by Paul VI

(the first Pope to travel internationally), the vast majority were to countries that no Pope had previously

visited. His extensive travel itinerary and persistence in reaching out to people around the globe earned him

the moniker ”The Pilgrim Pope”.

John Paul II often visited countries with large Catholic populations, which he intended to uplift spiritually.

This was especially visible during his visits to predominantly Catholic countries that were living under

authoritarian or totalitarian regimes. For example, in 1979 he visited his native Poland, which was ruled by

a Communist dictatorship; in 1982 he visited Argentina, which was run by a military junta; and in 1987, he

visited Chile, where the dictator Augusto Pinochet presided. Each time, he attracted large crowds, but also

in Pope Jon Paul II’s speeches during his visit to Brazil in October 1991 shifted short-run beliefs such as intentions to use

contraception and long-term fertility outcomes such as the timing and total number of births, and Montero and Yang (2022)

who show that the timing of religious festivals in Mexico can be causally linked to long-term economic outcomes, such as income

and agricultural productivity.

4See https : //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List of pastoral visits of P ope John P aul II.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 6the hostility of the local government.

Even more noteworthy is the fact that during his travels, the Pope cultivated friendly relations with

members of religious denominations other than the Catholic church, and notably outside of Christianity. For

example, during his visit to the United Kingdom in 1982 (the first ever by a reigning Pope), as a gesture

of friendship between the Roman Catholic Church and the Anglican Churches, he knelt down along with

the Archbishop of Canterbury.5 In 1986, the Pope invited the leaders of all major religions to Assisi, Italy,

for a universal prayer service for world peace. In that same year, he became the first pontiff known to have

entered a synagogue. In 2000 in Cairo, John Paul had become the first head of his church to meet with the

Sheikh al-Azhar, one of Sunni Islam’s highest religious authorities. In 2001, John Paul II became the first

pope ever to enter a mosque, the Great Mosque of Damascus, where he prayed in the company of Muslim

clerics. During his visit to Greece in 2001 (first by a Pope in 1291 years), he met Archbishop Christodoulos,

the head of the Church of Greece.6 During his visits to Germany and Sweden, he became the first Pope in

history to visit Lutheran churches.7

I therefore consider it reasonable to hypothesize that a visit by the Pope serves multiple purposes. These

include providing spiritual guidance to the local Catholic population, lending his support to local democratic

processes, and encouraging cultural and spiritual cooperation among groups of people and whole countries.

The latter is especially true when such countries are more distant for cultural reasons. Moreover, by simply

visiting a country, the Pope may be raising its profile, or ”putting it on the map”, implicitly inviting the rest

of the world to engage more forcefully. Because the Pope is the head of the Catholic church and the leader of

the world’s Catholic community, countries where the share of Catholics in the population is relatively larger

will be more likely to intensify their interaction with a country visited by the Pope. Moreover, the benefits

of such engagement should be larger if the visited country is less familiar, economically and culturally, to

5See https : //www.nytimes.com/1982/05/30/world/af ter − a − rif t − of − 450 − years − 2 − church − heads − embrace −

excerpts − f rom − speeches − page − 18.html

6During their public appearance after their private meeting, Christodoulos read a list of ”13 offences” of the Roman Catholic

Church against the Eastern Orthodox Church since the Great Schism of 1054, including the pillaging of Constantinople by

crusaders in 1204, and bemoaned the lack of any apology from the Roman Catholic Church, saying “Until now, there has not

been heard a single request for pardon” for the “maniacal crusaders of the 13th century.” Pope John Paul II responded by saying

“For the occasions past and present, when sons and daughters of the Catholic Church have sinned by action or omission against

their Orthodox brothers and sisters, may the Lord grant me forgiveness,” to which Christodoulos immediately applauded. See

http : //www.hri.org/news/greek/mpa/2001/01 − 05 − 04 1.mpa.html.

7See https://www.britannica.com/biography/Saint-John-Paul-II/Dialogue-with-other-faiths

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 7the global Catholic family.

3 Empirical model

The goal of this paper is to study the evolution of trade in the immediate aftermath of a Pastoral visit by

Pope John II. To analyze this effect, I specify two regression equations. The first one is as follows:

Log(1 + T otal Exports)i,t =

6+
(cid:88)

n=1

βn × Y earn + γXi,t + Ψi + Θt + εi,t

(1)

Here, the dependent variable Log(1 + T otal Exports)i,t denotes the natural logarithm of total exports

by visited country i to the rest of the world in year t.8 Y earn is a dummy variable equal to 1 in year n after

Pope John Paul II visited country i (where n equals 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6+), and to zero otherwise. The model

includes country fixed effects Ψi and year fixed effects Θt. The former allow me to hold constant background

forces that are fixed at the country level over time, such as land area, distance to main trading partners,

and access to sea. The latter allows me to net out the confounding effect of trends which are common to

all countries at a point in time, such as the global business cycle or global risk aversion.

I also include

on the right-hand side the vector Xi,t, whereby I control for the independent effect on trade of a number

of time-varying factors at the level of the visited country. It includes GDP growth, Log (Population), the

real exchange rate vis-a-vis the USD, a dummy equal to one the country is trade-liberalized, and a Liberal

Democracy Index.

The second regression equation is as follows:

Log(1 + Exports)i,j,t =

6+
(cid:88)

n=1

βnShare Catholicsj × Y earn + Ψi,j + Φi,t + Θj,t + εi,j,t

(2)

Here, the dependent variable Log(1 + Exports)i,j,t denotes the natural logarithm of total exports by

visited country i to trade partner country j in year t. Share Catholicsj denotes the share of Catholics in

trading partner country j. As in equation (1), Y earn is a dummy variable equal to 1 in year n after Pope

John Paul II visited country i (where n equals 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6+), and to zero otherwise. I saturate

8I am adding 1 to exports to avoid losing observations with 0 exports when taking logs. In a later robustness test, I also

calculate the dependent variable as Log(Exports)i,j,t.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 8the regression model in equation (2) with an interactions of country i and country j dummies (Ψi,j), an

interaction of country i dummies and a linear time trend t (Φi,t), and an interaction of country j dummies

and a linear time trend t (Θj,t). Ψi,j captures the impact on bilateral trade of factors pertinent to the

relationship between visited country i and trading partner country j that are fixed over time. These include

some of the standard components of gravity: physical distance, difference in size, common border, common

language, religious similarity, and somatic and genetic distance, among others. This is important as any

such variation at the country-pair level can explain differences in bilateral trade without any panel variation

existing. Φi,t controls for time-varying factors at the level of visited country i that affect all of country i’s

trading partners equally at the same point in time. Similarly, Θj,t controls for time-varying factors at the

level of trading partner country j that affect all of country j’s trading partners equally at the same point

in time. Including these in the regression allows me to net out the independent effect on trade of important

time-varying determinants of bilateral trade, such as GDP growth and population growth in countries i and

j. By exploiting heterogeneity across trading partners, equation (2) thus allows me to identify the ”Pope

effect” more tightly by including interactions of country and time fixed effects, something that I cannot do

in equation (1).

The coefficients β1, β2, β3, β4, β5, and β6+ measure the change in exports in years 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6+

after the year of the Papal visit, respectively, relative to the pre-visit period and to never-visited countries.9

In equation (1), I am testing the hypothesis that a visit by the Pope increases the visited country’s aggregate

exports. The interactive nature of the main variables of interest allows me to test in equation (2) the

hypothesis that the increase in exports from a country visited by Pope John Paul II is relatively stronger to

trading partners with a relatively high share of Catholics in the population.10

9De Chaisemartin and D’Haultfoeuille (2020) suggest that linear regressions may yield inaccurate estimates of average

treatment effects when some of the underlying weights are negative. I verify that in this context, the problem is negligible.

10Because the dependent variable is in logs and the main explanatory variable is a dummy variable, the interpretation of, e.g.,

β1 is that one year after a visit by the Pope, exports were higher by eβ1 -1 percent. At the same time, given that the dependent

variable is the natural logarithm of 1 plus exports to deal with the 17.5% of the cases when exports are zero, interpreting

treatment effects as percentage effects should be taken with a grain of salt (Chen and Roth, 2024).

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 94 Data

Pope John Paul II visited many countries multiple times (e.g., he recorded nine visits to Poland, seven

to France and United States, five to Spain and Mexico, etc.). To avoid assigning years between visits to

both the post- and the pre- period, I restrict the sample to Pope John Paul II’s 129 first visits. All non-

visited countries are included in the control group. Because the Pope’s last ”first visit” took place in 2002

(Bulgaria), I end the sample period in 2007. To make it symmetric, given that Pope John Paul II’s very first

visit took place in 1979 (Dominican Republic), I start the sample period in 1975. In robustness tests, I run

a specification where I look at all 207 Pastoral visits, and I also exclude stopovers, i.e. cases when the Pope

made a short stop, typically so that his plane could refuel because the final destination was too far.11

Data on the share of Catholics in the population come from the CIA World Factbooks or from the Pew Re-

search Center Report on the Global Catholic Population, and I take the value of the variable Share Catholicsj

for the earliest date for which information is available.12 Data on bilateral trade come from the IMF’s Direc-

tion of Trade Statistics (DOTS) dataset, which is based on data from the World Trade Organization (WTO).

I also utilize data on product-level bilateral trade, for 10 product classes, from the UN Comtrade database.

Information on the year of each of Pope John Paul II’s Pastoral visit is retrieved from the official website

of the Vatican. Figure 1 summarizes the Pope’s travels visually by decade, grouped according to the first

time he visited a country. During the 1970s, the Pope visited 7 countries, all of them in 1979: Dominican

Republic, Mexico, the Bahamas, Poland, Ireland, the USA, and Turkey. The 1980s was his busiest period,

with 104 visited countries (of which 79 were first visits), mostly in Western Europe, Africa, the Americas,

South and South-East Asia, and Australia and Oceania. During the 1990s, Pope John Paul II visited a

further 73 countries (of which 32 were first visits), mostly in Africa and the post-Soviet Bloc. Finally,

between 2000 and 2004, he visited another 23 countries in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East,

and North Africa, of which 11 were first visits.

Finally, I make use of country-specific data on the share of Protestant believers, GDP growth, population,

exchange rates, the timing of trade liberalization, and an index of democratization.13

11See Appendix Table 1 for a list of all of Pope John Paul II’s visits. He made 3 stopovers which were also ”first visits” when

he spent little time on the ground: in the Bahamas on 1 February 1979 on his way home from a visit to Mexico; in Pakistan on

16 February 1981 on his way to a visit in the Philippines; and in Guam on 22-23 February 1981 on his way to a visit in Japan.

12These data are visualized in Appendix Figure 1.
13See Appendix Table 2 for all data sources, and Appendix Table 3 for summary statistics.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 105 Pastoral visits and international trade: Empirical evidence

5.1 Main result

Figure 2 present two event-study graphs. Panel A shows the point estimates and 90-percent confidence

intervals from a version of Equation (1) which also includes dummies for the 6+ years before Pope John

Paul II’s visit. In Panel B, I do the same for a version of Equation (2) which also includes dummies for the

6+ years before Pope John Paul II’s visit, in interaction with the share of Catholics in the trading partner.14

Figure 2, Panel A, suggests that overall exports to the rest of the world increased significantly in years

1, 2, 3, and 5 after a pastoral visit to a country. The effect is economically non-negligible percentage-wise,

yet small relative to income. For example, the point estimate on Year 3 after the Pope’s visit to a country

is 0.1213, which implies that exports to the rest of the world are higher by 13.6%, relative to th eyear

of the visit. Median total exports by a visited country during the sample period are USD 1.5 bln., and

the median visited country has a population of 6.9 mln. and GDP per capita of USD 7,827.9. Therefore,

the estimates imply an increase of USD 39 per person, or 0.5% of GDP per capita. At the same time, I

consider this evidence as merely suggestive, because the structure of the test does not allow me to control

for unobservable country-specific trends which may be correlated with changes in trade patterns.

The evidence reported in Figure 2, Panel B, strongly suggests that following a Pastoral visit, exports

from the visited country to the rest of the world increase relatively more for trading partners with a larger

Catholic share of the population. This effect is statistically significant in years 2-5 after the visit in question.

Taking the point estimates from Appendix Table 4 (0.2804, 0.3526, 0.5354, 0.4105, and 0.3721) imply that

exports were higher by between 17.5% and 27.2% in the five years after the visit, relative to the year of the

visit, for trade between the visited country and a trading partner at the 75th percentile (0.543), relative to

a trading partner at the 25th percentile (0.011), of the distribution of Catholic population shares.15

14See also Appendix Table 4 where I report point estimates from the basic version of Equations (1) and (2).
15Appendix Table 5 confirms that the effect of a Pastoral visit still obtains and is significant at the 1-percent statistical level

for all post-visit years when the dependent variable is Log(Exports)i,j,t instead of Log(1 + Exports)i,j,t. Appendix Table 6

shows that the estimates of Equation (2) are similar when I look at all 207 Pastoral visits instead of only at first visits (column

(1)), when I do not code as 1 the three first visits that were merely stopovers (Bahamas in 1979, Pakistan in 1981, and Guam

in 1981; column (2)), and when I restrict the sample to visited countries only, dropping never visited countries from the control

group (column (3)). Appendix Table 7 confirms that the effect is not driven by outliers or by the choice of a data source source,

in terms of the share of Catholics in the trading partners. Appendix Table 8 shows that the effect is restricted to exports from

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 115.2 Falsification

5.2.1 Endogeneity of visits

I now address three significant concerns with my identification strategy. The first one is that a Pastoral visit

is not a random event. It is entirely possible that Pope John Paul II chose to visit countries where trade

with the rest of the world was already increasing, or countries characterized by processes that in themselves

may lead higher trade, such as democratization or higher economic growth. To test for this possibility, I run

a Cox Proportional Hazard model where I measure the time to a Pastoral visit from the start of the Pope’s

tenure in 1979 until his last visit in 2002 and assign the full period to countries that were never visited. As

potential explanatory variables, I employ the share of Catholics, exports/GDP, Log (GDP per capita), Log

(Population), and a Liberal Democracy Index, as well as three growth variables for the years preceding the

visit: GDP growth, growth in total exports, and growth in exports to high-Catholic countries.

The evidence presented in Table 1 shows that the Pope is more likely to visit earlier countries that have

a relatively higher share of Catholics in the population and countries that are relatively large. Importantly,

the incidence or timing of a visit is not related to the country’s GDP growth, evolution of trade, or democ-

ratization pattern. The model as a whole is statistically significant. This evidence gives me confidence that

Pope John Paul II’s visits, while not entirely random, were not driven by observable factors and trends that

can have an independent causal effect on trade.

5.2.2 Catholic countries versus Western countries

The second concern is that a high share of Catholics captures a particular national profile: an industrialized

country with a democratic political organization and a Western value system. If it is Western countries in

general, and not predominantly Catholic countries, that are more likely to respond to a Pastoral visit in

economic terms, this would point to a different mechanism than the one I have in mind, namely that the

community whose leader the Pope is responds to his actions. To test for this possibility, I run a version of

Equation (2) where I employ the share of the Protestant population in a trading partner instead of the share

of the Catholic population. The estimates from this regression are reported in column (1) of Table 2. While

mostly positive, the point estimates are never significant and are nowhere near the economic magnitude of

those captured in Figure 2, Panel B, and of those reported in Appendix Table 4.

the visited country and does not obtain in the case of imports.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 125.2.3 Other global events

The final concern regarding the identification strategy is that countries with a large Catholic population are

more sensitive than others to events that put another country in the news. Events other than the Pope’s

visit may be raising a country’s profile or may be perceived as having the potential to increase the country’s

GDP growth, and Catholics may be more likely to respond to such developments. If so, then visits by the

Pope may not be unique. They might be one possible event that increases a country’s popularity, but if

other events also make it more likely that exports to predominantly Catholic countries increase, then my

empirical strategy would be compromised.

To address this concern, I re-estimate Equation (2) on a number of other global events that tend to have

a publicity effect similar to a visit by the Pope. I collect three such sets of events. The first is international

visits by the US President between 1979 and 2002. US Presidents travel extensively: there were a total of 91

”first” visits by five US Presidents (Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and

George W. Bush) during this period. The second is visits by Queen Elisabeth II, who has also made many

”first” foreign visits during her reign (35 during the period in question). Finally, I look at two major global

sports events: Summer Olympic Games and Football World Cups. 10 such events were organized ”for the

first time” during the period in question (5 Summer Olympics and 5 Football World Cups). All of these are

events that are widely covered by global news networks, generating large global viewership. If the Pope’s

visits are not unique in any way, I should observe a similar pattern around these alternative events.

Columns (2)-(4) of Table 2 suggest that this is not the case. By and large, exports are not more likely

to increase—in the statistical sense—to trading partners with a larger share of Catholics after a visit to the

country by the US President (column (2)), after a visit to the country by Queen Elisabeth II (column (3)),

or after the country organizes a Summer Olympiad or a Football World Cup (column (4)). I conclude that

the pattern I observe is specific to a visit by the head of the Catholic Church.

In Appendix Table 9 I present evidence that after a visit to a foreign country by the US President (Queen

Elisabeth II) during the period in question, exports from the visited country to the US (UK) increased in

some years, but once again, the effect is not statistically significant. This strongly suggests that my estimates

do not capture a pure ”celebrity” effect, but a more complex one whereby Pope John Paul II’s position as

leader of the world’s Catholic community gives him a pulpit from which he can influence the members of

that community in ways that are not available to secular leaders.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 135.3 Mechanisms

What explains the increase in exports from countries visited by the Pope to the rest of the world, and in

particular to countries with relatively more Catholics? There are three main potential mechanisms:

1) The Pope is explicitly asking Catholics around the world to engage with the visited country on economic

terms.

2) The Pope is not asking Catholics around the world to engage with the visited country on economic

terms, but by visiting it and by enunciating a message of peace, brotherhood, reconciliation, and dialogue,

he is raising the country’s profile and “putting it on the map” for the global Catholic family.

3) Catholics around the world are buying souvenirs to commemorate the Pope’s visit.

To test for the first mechanism, I employ a textual analysis of the speeches the Pope gave during his

visits, looking for explicit economic messages. To test for the second one, I study whether the trade effect of

a Pastoral visit is stronger for countries that are less familiar to the global Catholic family. To test for the

third one, I look at bilateral trade across different product categories.

5.3.1 Economic messages in Pope John Paul II’s speeches

The first possibility is that during his visit, Pope John Paul II used the occasion to encourage Catholics

around the world to engage more forcefully with the country, not just in cultural and spiritual, but also in

economic terms. An increase in bilateral trade would then be a tangible outcome of a targeted message.

If this is the case, then the Pope would be employing in his speeches keywords capturing an economically

globalist message.

To test for this possibility, I analyse 633 speeches given during the Pope’s 129 first visits. The word

“economic” appears in 163 speeches, the word “trade” appears in 23 speeches, and the word “globalization”

appears in 4 speeches. 460 of the speeches do not have a single mention of any word related to economic or

trade issues. At the same time, there are 7 other topics that clearly dominate the Pope’s narrative. These are

“life and love”, “humans and society”, “church and faith”, “greetings to the people of the visited country”,

“unity”, “sickness and suffering”, and “school and education”. This evidence is graphically summarized in

Figure 3.16

16It is possible that while not talking explicitly about economic cooperation, the Pope is aiming to indirectly affect trade

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 14The analysis of Pope John Paul II’s speeches is thus largely inconsistent with the idea that he was

sending a direct message of economic cooperation to the Catholics around the world. On the strength of the

evidence, I conclude that during his visits, the Pope primarily promoted a classical religious agenda of love,

compassion, and humanity, combined with messages encouraging spiritual dialogue, cultural closeness, and

religious ecumenism, but not necessarily economic integration.

5.3.2 Visited country heterogeneity

The second possibility is that when the Pope visits a country, he raises its profile, or ”puts it on the map”. For

economic and cultural reasons, predominantly Catholic countries are likely to already have close trade ties

with a particular set of trading partners, such as wealthy industrialized economies and other predominantly

Catholic countries. Consequently, poorer countries, countries with fewer Catholics, and countries with weaker

trade ties will be more likely to benefit from a Pastoral visit that raises their global visibility. Moreover,

as mentioned already, travelling so widely around the world was a marked departure from the practice of

previous Popes, and it is possible that the Pope’s power to raise a country’s profile was stronger initially

and waned over time.

To investigate this hypothesis, I now analyse the heterogeneous impact of the Pope’s visits. In essence,

I check whether the effect of a Pastoral visit varies over time and across visited countries, depending on

observable factors that capture their level of development, degree of pre-existing trade integration, and

cultural similarities with their trading partners. This evidence is summarized visually in Figure 4, where

similar to Figure 2 I include dummies for pre-visit years, and in Appendix Table 10, which recreates faithfully

Equation (2) for different sub-samples.17

The combined evidence from Figure 4 and Appendix Table 10 suggest that the effect on exports of a visit

by John Paul II to a country is stronger if this country is relatively poor (i.e., not an OECD member), if it

has a relatively low share of Catholics (i.e., less than 50%), and if it has relatively weaker bilateral trade with

the partner country (i.e., exports to the trading partner are outside the 10th percentile as a share of total

trade). The effect on bilateral trade is therefore larger when the Pope is visiting a country that Catholic

by talking about, e.g., ”solidarity”. Further textual analysis around the words “solidarity”, “community”, and “cooperation”

suggests that the speeches containing these terms are dominated by mentions of the word “ecumenical” (77 out of 89 speeches),

namely, religious unity between nominally distinct religious denominations.

17See also Appendix Figure 2 for country-level event studies for different sub-periods and different sub-samples of visited

countries.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 15trading partners are less likely to have strong economic relations with at the time of the visit. As for the

timing of the Pastoral visit, the increase in exports following a visit by Pope John Paul II was observed

throughout his Pontificate but was more immediate during visits that took place before 1990.

I conclude that the mechanism whereby the Pope raises a country’s profile by visiting it and implicitly

encouraging other Catholic countries to engage with it appears plausible. The power of the Pope to deepen

economic interactions with Catholic trading partners seems stronger when he visits a particular type of

country (poorer, culturally dissimilar, less trade-integrated) and appears to be correlated with the novelty

of his pilgrimage around the world.

5.3.3 Types of exports

The third mechanism is one whereby the Catholic faithful around the world are commemorating the Pope’s

visit. For example, after a Pope’s visit, the visited countries would send souvenirs to the destination countries,

e.g. through the church network, and obviously larger amounts would be sent where there are more Catholics.

Moreover, Catholic pilgrims may be more likely to come more to the countries previously visited by the Pope,

so export of tourist services might also be affected. While this would be a salient economic effect, it would

also be both small and temporary, not to mention qualitatively insignificant.

To investigate this possibility, I now turn to analysing data on bilateral trade at the product level,

from Comtrade. In this dataset, bilateral trade is split across 10 different product categories: 1) Animal and

vegetable oils, fats, and waxes; 2) Beverages and tobacco; 3) Chemicals and related products; 4) Commodities

and transactions n.e.c.; 5) Crude materials, inedible, except fuels; 6) Food and live animals; 7) Machinery

and transport equipment; 8) Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material; 9) Mineral fuels, lubricants,

and related materials; and 10) Miscellaneous manufactured articles.

I once again employ Equation (2), for each of these 10 categories. The results from this analysis are

reported in Table 3. I find evidence for an increase in exports in five out of 10 product categories, following

a visit by Pope John Paul II. In the case of all visits, the increase in trade takes place in large and important

sectors such as ’Beverages and tobacco’, ‘Crude materials, inedible, except fuels’, and ’Machinery and trans-

port equipment’ (Panel A). In the case of visits to non-OECD and low-Catholic countries (Panels B and C),

exports of other products (‘Mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials’ and ‘Miscellaneous manufactured

articles’) increase as well. The fact that the increase in trade takes place in a variety of sectors producing

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 16both final and intermediary goods suggests that the trade benefit to a visited country goes beyond the mere

purchase of souvenirs related to the Pope’s visit.

6 Conclusion

Because of the slowly moving nature of organized religion, it has proved challenging in practice to detect

a causal relationship between religion and short-to-medium term economic development. To circumvent

this challenge, I study the immediate effect of Pope John Paul II’s foreign visits on international trade.

The Catholic dogma of Papal supremacy posits that the Pope is the unchallenged sovereign of the Catholic

church. Therefore, his words and actions carry significant weight with, and send unequivocal signals to, all

Catholics around the world. Moreover, between 1979 and 2002, Pope John Paul II made 104 foreign trips

and visited 129 countries, more than all Popes before him combined, and his visits were televized and widely

followed. His ascent to the papacy thus coincided with the arrival of wide-spread, routine, instantaneous

audiovisual communications, and many of his efforts—and in particular his foreign visits—were aimed at

making sure that the Catholic community can thrive in an open, interconnected world in which nations and

religions live in daily contact with one another.

I hypothesize that a visit to a foreign country by the Pope raises the global profile of the visited country,

”putting it on the map” for the global Catholic family. Coupled with an ecumenical message of interfaith

reconciliation and dialogue with members of other religious denominations, a Pastoral visit could have tangi-

ble economic side effects, in the shape of deeper economic integration between previously less interconnected

countries.

The evidence suggests that in the five years following a visit to a foreign country by the Pope, trade

between that country and its trade partners with a large Catholic share of the population increased in a

meaningful and significant way. This effect is much stronger for visited countries that are at lower stages

of economic development and have relatively few Catholics and weaker economic ties with their trading

partners. Moreover, there is suggestive evidence that this effect is not fully washed out in the aggregate.

In all, my results provide tentative support for the notion that an ecumenical message of reconciliation

and dialogue by the popular leader of a religious community can have economic side effects by intensifying

commerce between countries.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 17References

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ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 21I
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ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 22 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 2. Pastoral visits by Pope John Paul II and exports: All first visits

Panel A. Aggregate exports

)
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Panel B. Bilateral exports by share of Catholics in trading partner

Notes:  The  Figure  plots  points  estimates and  a  90-percent  confidence  interval  for  a  version  of Equation  (1)
(Panel A) and of Equation (2) (Panel B), which also includes dummies for the preceding years.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 23 
Figure 3. Textual analysis of 633 speeches related to the Pastoral visits of Pope John Paul II’s

Notes: The Figure plots the most frequent word in 633 speeches by Pope John Paul II given during 129 first
foreign visits between 1979 and 2002. The frequency of each word is represented by its relative size.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 24Figure 4. Pastoral visits by Pope John Paul II and bilateral trade: Time periods and visited countries

Before 1990 

After 1990

OECD countries 

Non-OECD countries

High-Catholic countries 

Low-Catholic countries

High-bilateral trade 

Low bilateral trade

Notes:  The  Figure  plots  points  estimates and  a  90-percent  confidence  interval  for  a  version  of Equation  (2)
which also includes dummies for the preceding years, for different sub-samples: visits before and after 1990,
visits to countries that were and to countries that were not OECD members at the time of the visit, visits to

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 25countries with more and to countries with less than 50% Catholics, and for trading partners in and for trading
partners outside the top 10% of bilateral trade vis-à-vis the visited country.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 26Table 1. Pastoral visits by Pope John Paul II and bilateral trade: Endogeneity

Visit by Pope John Paul II

Share Catholics 

Exports / GDP

Log (GDP per capita) 

Log (Population) 

Liberal Democracy Index 

GDP growth before visit 

Total export growth before visit 

Total export growth to high-Catholic countries before visit 

6.3814
(1.8394)
(6.43)
0.3375
(0.3222)
(-1.14)
0.8589
(0.0918)
(-1.42)
1.2073
(0.0713)
(3.19)
1.9092
(0.9175)
(1.35)
3.4612
(14.0974)
(0.30)
0.7688
(1.1182)
(-0.18)
0.7808
(1.1182)
(-0.21)

142
-429.965
0.00

Observations
Log likelihood
Prob > chi2
Notes: The dependent variable ‘Visit by Pope John Paul II’ is a dummy equal to 1 if the country was visited by
Pope John Paull II. ‘Share Catholics’ is the share, out of the total population, of citizens that identify as Catholics.
‘Exports / GDP’ denotes the ratio of total exports to GDP, in USD. ‘Log (GDP per capita)’ denotes the natural
logarithm of real GDP per capita, in USD. ‘Log (Population)’ denotes the natural logarithm of total population,
in million. ‘FX rate’ denotes the real exchange rate in a visited country vis-à-vis the USD. ‘Liberal Democracy
Index’ is an index of the extent to which the country is a liberal democracy. ‘GDP growth before visit’ is average
GDP growth in the years before the visit. ‘Total export growth before visit’ is average export growth in the years
before the visit. ‘Total export growth to high-Catholic countries before visit’ is average export growth to high-
Catholic countries in the years before the visit. All variables are measured during the year of a visit, if the Pope
ever visited the country, or in 2002, if the Pope never did. The regression is estimated using a Cox Proportional
Hazard model. The coefficient is a hazard ratio corresponding to a one-unit change in the respective variable.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 27Standard errors are reported in the first parentheses, and z-statistics are reported in the second parentheses,
below the coefficient.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 28Table 2. Pastoral visits by Pope John Paul II and bilateral trade: Falsification

Log (1+Exports)

Share
Protestants

Visit by
US President

Visit by
Queen Elisabeth II

Global
sports event

(1)

0.0037
(0.1806)
0.1826
(0.1688)
0.2502
(0.1733)
-0.0316
(0.1874)
0.0560
(0.2043)
0.1143
(0.2405)

Share Protestants × Year 1 

Share Protestants × Year 2 

Share Protestants × Year 3 

Share Protestants × Year 4 

Share Protestants × Year 5 

Share Protestants × Year 6+ 

Share Catholics × Year 1 

Share Catholics × Year 2 

Share Catholics × Year 3 

Share Catholics × Year 4 

Share Catholics × Year 5 

Share Catholics × Year 6+ 

Visited country × Partner country FE 
Visited country × Linear trend 
Partner country × Linear trend 

Yes 
Yes 
Yes 

(2)

(3)

(4)

-0.0125 
(0.1200) 
-0.0244 
(0.1140) 
-0.0787 
(0.1196) 
0.1417 
(0.1089) 
0.0979 
(0.1165) 
-0.0500 
(0.1022) 
Yes 
Yes 
Yes 

-0.0695 
(0.1246) 
0.0008 
(0.2168) 
-0.0286 
(0.1818) 
-0.1736 
(0.2046) 
0.0005 
(0.2092) 
-0.0678 
(0.2111) 
Yes 
Yes 
Yes 

0.2345
(0.1712)
0.0178
(0.1099)
0.0745
(0.1554)
0.2360
(0.1477)
0.2292**
(0.1042)
0.1013
(0.1036)
Yes
Yes
Yes

498,651 
0.79 
0.48 

463,538 
0.78 
0.35 

Observations 
R-squared 
Prob > F 
Notes: The dependent variable is the natural logarithm of 1 plus total exports from a country visited by John
Paul II to a trading partner country. ‘Share Protestants’ is the share, out of the total population, of citizens that
identify as Protestants in a trading partner country. ‘Share Catholics’ is the share, out of the total population,
of citizens that identify as Catholics in a trading partner country. ‘Year 1’, ‘Year 2’, ‘Year 3’, ‘Year 4’, ‘Year 5’,
and ‘Year 6+’ are dummy variables equal to one in the respective year(s) after the Pope’s visit, and to zero
otherwise. The sample includes all first visits to a foreign country during the sample period by Pope Jean Paul
II  (column  (1));  by  the  US  President  (column  (2));  by  Queen  Elisabeth  II  (column  (3));  and  all  first  Summer

498,651 
0.79 
0.56 

498,651
0.79
0.00

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 29 
 
 
 
 
 
Olympic Games and football World Cups (column (4)); between 1979 and 2004. The sample period is 1975–
2007. All regressions are estimated using OLS and include fixed effects as specified. Standard errors clustered
at the visited country level, where ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1, 5, and 10 percent statistical
level, respectively.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 30)
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ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 36 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Appendix Tables and Charts

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 37y
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ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 38 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Appendix Figure 2. Pastoral visits by Pope John Paul II and aggregate exports: Time periods and visited
countries

Before 1990

After 1990

OECD countries

Non-OECD countries

High-Catholic countries

Low-Catholic countries

Notes:  The  Figure  plots  points  estimates and  a  90-percent  confidence  interval  for  a  version  of Equation  (1)
which also includes dummies for the preceding years, for different sub-samples: visits before and after 1990,
visits to countries that were and to countries that were not OECD members at the time of the visit, and visits
to countries with more and to countries with less than 50% Catholics.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 39Appendix Table 1. Pastoral visits by Pope John Paul II, by country and year

Visited country 

Dominican Republic 
Mexico
Bahamas 
Poland
Ireland
United States of America 
Turkey
Congo
Kenya
Ghana
Burkina Faso 
Ivory Coast 
France
Brazil
German Federal Republic 
Democratic Republic of the Congo 
Pakistan 
Philippines 
Guam
Japan
United States of America 
Nigeria
Benin
Equatorial Guinea 
Gabon
Portugal 
United Kingdom 
Brazil
Argentina 
Switzerland 
San Marino 
Spain
Portugal 
Costa Rica 
Nicaragua 
Panama
El Salvador 
Guatemala 

Year of visit 

1979 
1979 
1979 
1979 
1979 
1979 
1979 
1980 
1980 
1980 
1980 
1980 
1980 
1980 
1980 
1980 
1981 
1981 
1981 
1981 
1981 
1982 
1982 
1982 
1982 
1982 
1982 
1982
1982 
1982 
1982 
1982 
1983 
1983 (twice) 
1983 
1983 
1983 
1983 (twice) 

First visit 

Stopover

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes
Yes
Yes 
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes 
Yes
Yes 
Yes

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 40 
 
Yes

Honduras 
Belize
Haiti
Poland
France
Austria
United States of America 
South Korea 
Papua New Guinea 
Solomon Islands 
Thailand 
Switzerland 
Canada
Spain
Dominican Republic 
Puerto Rico 
Venezuela 
Ecuador 
Peru
Trinidad and Tobago 
Netherlands 
Luxembourg 
Belgium 
Togo
Ivory Coast 
Cameroon 
Central African Republic 
Democratic Republic of the Congo 
Kenya
Morocco 
Switzerland 
Liechtenstein 
India
Colombia 
St. Lucia 
France
Bangladesh 
Singapore 
Fiji
New Zealand 
Australia 

1983 
1983 
1983 
1983
1983
1983 
1984 
1984 
1984 (twice) 
1984 
1984 
1984
1984 
1984
1984
1984 
1985 
1985 
1985 
1985 
1985 
1985 
1985 
1985 
1985
1985 
1985 
1985
1985
1985 
1985
1985 
1986 
1986 
1986 
1986
1986 
1986 
1986 
1986 
1986 

Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes

Yes

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 41 
Seychelles 
Uruguay 
Chile
Argentina 
German Federal Republic 
Poland
United States of America 
Canada
Uruguay 
Bolivia
Peru
Paraguay 
Austria
Zimbabwe 
Botswana 
Lesotho
Swaziland 
Mozambique 
France
Madagascar 
Reunion 
Zambia
Malawi
Norway
Iceland
Finland
Denmark 
Sweden
Spain
South Korea 
Indonesia 
Mauritius 
Cape Verde 
Guinea-Bissau 
Mali
Burkina Faso 
Chad
Czechoslovakia 
Mexico
Curacao 
Malta

1986 
1987 
1987 
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
1988
1988 
1988
1988 
1988
1988 
1988 
1988 
1988 
1988 
1988
1989 
1989 
1989 
1989 
1989 
1989 
1989 
1989 
1989 
1989
1989
1989 
1989 
1990 
1990 
1990 
1990
1990 
1990 
1990
1990 
1990 

Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 42Tanzania 
Burundi
Rwanda
Ivory Coast 
Portugal 
Poland 
Hungary 
Brazil
Senegal
Gambia
Guinea-Bissau 
Angola
Sao Tome and Principe 
Dominican Republic 
Benin
Uganda
Sudan
Albania
Spain
Jamaica
Mexico
United States of America 
Lithuania 
Latvia
Estonia
Croatia
Philippines 
Papua New Guinea 
Australia 
Sri Lanka 
Czech Republic 
Poland
Belgium 
Slovakia 
Cameroon 
South Africa 
Kenya
United States of America 
Guatemala 
El Salvador 
Nicaragua 

Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes

Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes

Yes

1990 
1990 
1990 
1990
1991
1991 (twice)
1991 
1991
1992 
1992 
1992
1992 
1992 
1992
1993
1993 
1993 
1993 
1993
1993 
1993
1993
1993 
1993 
1993 
1994 
1995
1995
1995
1995 
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995 
1995
1995
1996 (twice)
1996
1996

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 43Venezuela 
Tunisia
Germany 
Slovenia 
Hungary 
France
Bosnia and Herzegovina 
Czech Republic 
Lebanon 
Poland
France
Brazil
Cuba
Nigeria
Austria
Croatia
Mexico
United States of America 
Romania 
Poland
Slovenia 
India
Georgia
Egypt
Jordan
Israel
Palestine 
Portugal 
Greece
Syria
Malta
Ukraine
Kazakhstan 
Armenia 
Azerbaijan 
Bulgaria 
Canada
Guatemala 
Mexico
Poland
Spain

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

1996
1996 
1996
1996 
1996
1996
1997 
1997
1997 
1997
1997
1997
1998 
1998
1998
1998
1999
1999
1999 
1999
1999
1999
1999 
2000 
2000 
2000 
2000 
2000
2001 
2001 
2001
2001 
2001 
2001 
2002 
2002 
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 44Croatia
Bosnia and Herzegovina 
Slovakia 
Switzerland 
France
Notes. All visits, first visits, and stopover visits by Pope John Paul II. Source: Vatican.

2003
2003
2003
2004
2004

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 45Appendix Table 2. Data sources

Variable

Source

IMF DOTS, Comtrade
IMF DOTS
Vatican
Department of State
Royal family
IOC, FIFA
CIA, Pew
CIA, Pew
Penn Tables
Penn Tables
Penn Tables
Wacziarg and Welch (2008)
IMF DOTS, Penn Tables
V-Dem

Exports 
Imports
Year of Pastoral visit 
Year of visit by US President 
Year of visit by Queen Elisabeth II 
Year of Summer Olympic Games or Football World Cup 
Share Catholics 
Share Protestants 
GDP growth
Population
FX rate
Trade liberalized 
Exports / GDP 
Liberal Democracy Index 
Notes. ‘Exports’ denotes total or product-level bilateral exports by a visited country to a trading partner, in
USD.  ‘Imports’  denotes  total  bilateral  imports  by  a  visited  country  from  a  trading  partner,  in  USD.  ‘Share
Catholics’ is the share, out of the total population, of citizens that identify as Catholics. ‘Share Protestants’ is
the share, out of the total population, of citizens that identify as Protestants. ‘GDP growth’ denotes the year-
on-year log difference in real GDP per capita in the visited country. ‘Population’ denotes total population in a
visited country. ‘FX rate’ denotes the real exchange rate in a visited country vis-à-vis the USD. ‘Trade liberalized’
is a dummy variable equal to one if the visited country has liberalized its trade with the rest of the world at the
time  of  the  visit.  ‘Exports  /  GDP’  denotes  the  ratio  of  total  exports  to  GDP  in  a  visited  country.  ‘Liberal
Democracy Index’ is an index of the extent to which a visited country is a liberal democracy. ‘IMF DOTS’ denotes
the  IMF’s  Direction  of  Trade  Statistics  dataset  on  total  bilateral  trade,  https://data.imf.org/?sk=9D6028D4-
F14A-464C-A2F2-59B2CD424B85. ‘Comtrade’ denotes the UN Comtrade database on product-level bilateral
trade,  https://comtradeplus.un.org/.  ‘Vatican’  denotes  the  official  Vatican  archive  of  Pastoral  visits,
https://web.archive.org/web/20111101084344/http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/john_paul_ii/travels/ind
ex.htm. ‘Department of State’ denotes the archive of US Presidents’ foreign visits maintained by the Office of
the Historian of the State Department, https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/travels/president. ‘Royal
family’  denotes  the  archive  of  the  state  visits  of  Elisabeth  II,  maintained  by  
 family
https://www.royal.uk/sites/default/files/media/outbound_state_visits_since_1952_0.pdf. ‘IOC, FIFA’ denotes
the  official  archive  of  Olympic  Games  and  Football  World  Cups  maintained  by  the  International  Olympic
Committee,  https://olympics.com/ioc/celebrate-olympic-games,  and  by  the  International  Federation  of
Association  Football,
 denotes  CIA’s  World
Factbooks.  ‘Pew’  denotes  the  Pew  Research  Centre  2010  Survey  of  the  Global  Catholic  Population,
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2011/12/19/table-christian-population-as-percentages-of-total-
 10.01,
population-by-country/.
https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/?lang=en.  ‘V-Dem’  denotes  the  Varieties  of  Democracy  Dataset,
https://v-dem.net/data/the-v-dem-dataset/country-year-v-dem-fullothers-v13/.

 https://www.fifa.com/tournaments/mens/worldcup.

 the  Royal

 denotes

 version

 Tables’

 Tables

 World

 ‘Penn

 Penn

 ‘CIA’

 the

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 46Appendix Table 3. Summary statistics

Variable 

Mean 

(1) 

Median 

St. dev 

(2) 

(3) 

Min 

(4) 

Max

(5)

0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
5.6670 
-5.4205 
0 
0 
0 
0.005 

12.4853 
13.2942 
13.2226 
0.3088 
0.1842 
8.8941 
1.4821 
218.638 
0.3727 
0.1301 
0.3276 

6.6822 
3.3895 
6.0038 
0.3595 
0.2574 
1.2338 
2.2059 
1052.121 
0.4836 
0.2477 
0.2780 

26.5780
24.8962
26.6029
1
1
12.0939
7.2049
16,105.13
1
3.6737
0.896

14.3485 
Log (1+Exports), IMF DOTS 
13.3092 
Log (1+Exports), Comtrade 
14.5984 
Log (1+Imports) 
0.129 
Share Catholics  
0.0425 
Share Protestants 
8.9725 
GDP growth 
1.8605 
Log (Population) 
3.6271 
FX rate 
0 
Trade liberalized 
0.0585 
Exports / GDP 
Liberal Democracy Index 
0.2065 
Notes: ‘Log (1+Exports)’ denotes the natural logarithm of 1 plus total bilateral exports from a country visited
by Pope John Paul II to a trading partner, in USD, at the aggregate (‘IMF DOTS’) or at the product (‘Comtrade’)
level. ‘Log (1+Imports)’ denotes the natural logarithm of 1 plus total bilateral imports by a country visited by
Pope John Paul II from a trading partner, in USD, at the aggregate level. ‘Share Catholics’ is the share, out of
the  total  population,  of  citizens  that  identify  as  Catholics.  ‘Share  Protestans’  is  the  share,  out  of  the  total
population, of citizens that identify as Protestants. ‘GDP growth’ denotes the year-on-year log difference in
real GDP per capita in the visited country, in USD. ‘Log (Population)’ denotes the natural logarithm of total
population in a visited country, in million. ‘FX rate’ denotes the real exchange rate in a visited country vis-à-vis
the USD. ‘Trade liberalized’ is a dummy variable equal to one if the visited country has liberalized its trade with
the rest of the world. ‘Exports / GDP’ denotes the ratio of total exports to GDP in a visited country, in USD.
‘Liberal Democracy Index’ is an index of the extent to which a visited country is a liberal democracy. For variable
sources, see Appendix Table 2.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 47Appendix Table 4. Pastoral visits by Pope John Paul II and bilateral trade: Main result

Log (1+Total exports) 

Log (1+Exports)

(1)

0.0625
(0.0629)
0.1243*
(0.0736)
0.1392*
(0.0892)
0.0805
(0.0839)
0.1238
(0.0945)
0.2061
(0.1472)
0.5954**
(0.2372)
-0.3792
(0.2613)
0.0001*
(0.0000)
-0.1547
(0.1041)
0.1125
(0.2149)

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Year 6+

GDP growth 

Log (Population) 

FX rate

Trade liberalized 

Liberal Democracy Index 

Share Catholics × Year 1 

Share Catholics × Year 2 

Share Catholics × Year 3 

Share Catholics × Year 4 

Share Catholics × Year 5 

Share Catholics × Year 6+ 

Visited country FE 
Year FE
Visited country × Partner country FE 

Yes 
Yes
No 

(2)

0.2804**
(0.1113)
0.3526**
(0.1473)
0.5354***
(0.1545)
0.4105***
(0.1433)
0.3721**
(0.1555)
0.1545
(0.1797)
No
No
Yes

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 48 
 
 
 
 
 
Visited country × Linear trend 
Partner country × Linear trend 

No 
No 

Yes
Yes

4,375 
0.95 
0.00

498,651
0.79
0.01

Observations 
R-squared 
Prob > F
Notes: The dependent variable is the natural logarithm of 1 plus total exports from a country visited by John
Paul II to the rest of the world (column (1)) or to a trading partner country (column (2)). ‘Year 1’, ‘Year 2’, ‘Year
3’, ‘Year 4’, ‘Year 5’, and ‘Year 6+’ are dummy variables equal to one in the respective year(s) after the Pope’s
visit, and to zero otherwise. ‘GDP growth’ denotes the year-on-year log difference in real GDP per capita in the
visited country, in USD. ‘Log (Population)’ denotes the natural logarithm of total population in a visited country,
in million. ‘FX rate’ denotes the real exchange rate in a visited country vis-à-vis the USD. ‘Trade liberalized’ is a
dummy variable equal to one if the visited country has liberalized its trade with the rest of the world. ‘Liberal
Democracy Index’ is an index of the extent to which a visited country is a liberal democracy. ‘Share Catholics’
is the share, out of the total population, of citizens that identify as Catholics in a trading partner country. The
sample includes all first visits between 1979 and 2002. The sample period is 1975–2007. All regressions are
estimated  using  OLS  and  include  fixed  effects  as  specified.  Standard  errors  clustered  at  the visited  country
level, where ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1, 5, and 10 percent statistical level, respectively.

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 49Appendix Table 5. Pastoral visits by Pope John Paul II and bilateral trade: Robust exports

Share Catholics × Year 1 

Share Catholics × Year 2 

Share Catholics × Year 3 

Share Catholics × Year 4 

Share Catholics × Year 5 

Share Catholics × Year 6+ 

Visited country × Partner country FE 
Visited country × Linear trend 
Partner country × Linear trend 

Log (Exports)

0.1482***
(0.0571)
0.2149***
(0.0674)
0.3211***
(0.0726)
0.3191***
(0.0783)
0.2930***
(0.0825)
0.3516***
(0.1153)
Yes
Yes
Yes

Observations
R-squared
Prob > F
Notes: The dependent variable is the natural logarithm of total exports from a country visited by John Paul II
from  a  trading  partner  country.  ‘Share  Catholics’  is  the  share,  out  of  the  total  population,  of  citizens  that
identify as Catholics in a trading partner country. ‘Year 1’, ‘Year 2’, ‘Year 3’, ‘Year 4’, ‘Year 5’, and ‘Year 6+’ are
dummy variables equal to one in the respective year(s) after the Pope’s visit, and to zero otherwise. The sample
includes all first visits between 1979 and 2002. The sample period is 1975–2007. All regressions are estimated
using OLS and include fixed effects as specified. Standard errors clustered at the visited country level, where
***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1, 5, and 10 percent statistical level, respectively.

409,861
0.87
0.00

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 50Appendix Table 6. Pastoral visits by Pope John Paul II and bilateral trade: Alternative visits and samples

Share Catholics × Year 1 

Share Catholics × Year 2 

Share Catholics × Year 3 

Share Catholics × Year 4 

Share Catholics × Year 5 

Share Catholics × Year 6+ 

Visited country × Partner country FE 
Visited country × Linear trend 
Partner country × Linear trend 

Log (1+Exports)
First visits,
excluding stopovers

First visits,
only visited countries

(2)

0.3095*** 
(0.1102) 
0.3527** 
(0.1481) 
0.5381*** 
(0.1544) 
0.4265*** 
(0.1423) 
0.3604** 
(0.1536) 
0.1556 
(0.1767) 
Yes 
Yes 
Yes 

(3)

0.2739**
(0.1085)
0.3651**
(0.1459)
0.5319***
(0.1544)
0.4127***
(0.1383)
0.3906***
(0.1495)
0.2036
(0.1700)
Yes
Yes
Yes

All visits

(1)

0.0902 
(0.1142) 
0.1908 
(0.1433) 
0.3725*** 
(0.1322) 
0.3297*** 
(0.1263) 
0.2352* 
(0.1233) 
0.1961 
(0.1291) 
Yes 
Yes 
Yes 

498,651 
0.79 
0.11 

498,651 
0.79 
0.01 

Observations 
R-squared 
Prob > F 
Notes: The dependent variable is the natural logarithm of 1 plus total exports from a country visited by John
Paul II to a trading partner country. ‘Share Catholics’ is the share, out of the total population, of citizens that
identify as Catholics in a trading partner country. ‘Year 1’, ‘Year 2’, ‘Year 3’, ‘Year 4’, ‘Year 5’, and ‘Year 6+’ are
dummy variables equal to one in the respective year(s) after the Pope’s visit, and to zero otherwise. The sample
includes all visits (column (1)), first visits excluding stopovers (column (2)), and first visits, excluding from the
sample all countries that the Pope never visited (column (3)). The sample period is 1975–2007. All regressions
are estimated using OLS and include fixed effects as specified. Standard errors clustered at the visited country
level, where ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1, 5, and 10 percent statistical level, respectively.

365,061
0.78
0.03

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 51Appendix Table 7. Pastoral visits by Pope John Paul II and bilateral trade: Robust share Catholics

Excluding trading
partners with 0% and
100% Catholics

Log (1+Exports)
Excluding bottom 10%
and top 10% trading
partners in terms of
share Catholics

Data on share
Catholics from Pew
Research Centre

Share Catholics × Year 1 

Share Catholics × Year 2 

Share Catholics × Year 3 

Share Catholics × Year 4 

Share Catholics × Year 5 

Share Catholics × Year 6+ 

Visited country × Partner country FE 
Visited country × Linear trend 
Partner country × Linear trend 

(1)

0.2981*** 
(0.1107) 
0.3516** 
(0.1504) 
0.5717*** 
(0.1568) 
0.4341*** 
(0.1459) 
0.3885*** 
(0.1574) 
0.1674 
(0.1806) 
Yes 
Yes 
Yes 

(2)

0.2563* 
(0.1469) 
0.2919 
(0.1711) 
0.5920*** 
(0.1697) 
0.5624*** 
(0.1732) 
0.4270** 
(0.1875) 
0.2523 
(0.2138) 
Yes 
Yes 
Yes 

(3)

0.2938**
(0.1335)
0.3908**
(0.1748)
0.5957***
(0.1806)
0.4568***
(0.1711)
0.4296**
(0.1815)
0.1749
(0.2115)
Yes
Yes
Yes

481,205 
0.79 
0.01 

423,107 
0.78 
0.01 

Observations 
R-squared 
Prob > F 
Notes: The dependent variable is the natural logarithm of 1 plus total exports from a country visited by John
Paul II to a trading partner country. ‘Share Catholics’ is the share, out of the total population, of citizens that
identify as Catholics in a trading partner country. ‘Year 1’, ‘Year 2’, ‘Year 3’, ‘Year 4’, ‘Year 5’, and ‘Year 6+’ are
dummy variables equal to one in the respective year(s) after the Pope’s visit, and to zero otherwise. The sample
includes  all  first  visits  between  1979  and  2002.  The  sample  excludes  trading  partners  where  the  share  of
Catholics is 0% or 100% (column (1)) trading partners in the bottom 10% and in the top 10% in terms of share
Catholics (column (2)). In column (3), all data on Catholics is based on the Pew Research Centre 2010 Survey of
the Global Catholic Population. The sample period is 1975–2007. All regressions are estimated using OLS and
include fixed effects as specified. Standard errors clustered at the visited country level, where ***, **, and *
indicate significance at the 1, 5, and 10 percent statistical level, respectively.

495,119
0.79
0.02

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 52Appendix Table 8. Pastoral visits by Pope John Paul II and bilateral trade: Imports

Share Catholics × Year 1 

Share Catholics × Year 2 

Share Catholics × Year 3 

Share Catholics × Year 4 

Share Catholics × Year 5 

Share Catholics × Year 6+ 

Visited country × Partner country FE 
Visited country × Linear trend 
Partner country × Linear trend 

Log (1+Imports)

-0.0217
(0.1126)
-0.1248
(0.1220)
-0.1829
(0.1239)
-0.1499
(0.1297)
-0.2877**
(0.1352)
-0.4117***
(0.1298)
Yes
Yes
Yes

Observations
R-squared
Prob > F
Notes: The dependent variable is the natural logarithm of 1 plus total imports to a country visited by John Paul
II from a trading partner country. ‘Share Catholics’ is the share, out of the total population, of citizens that
identify as Catholics in a trading partner country. ‘Year 1’, ‘Year 2’, ‘Year 3’, ‘Year 4’, ‘Year 5’, and ‘Year 6+’ are
dummy variables equal to one in the respective year(s) after the Pope’s visit, and to zero otherwise. The sample
includes all first visits between 1979 and 2002. The sample period is 1975–2007. All regressions are estimated
using OLS and include fixed effects as specified. Standard errors clustered at the visited country level, where
***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1, 5, and 10 percent statistical level, respectively.

498,651
0.76
0.05

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 53Appendix Table 9. Visits by US President and Queen Elisabeth and bilateral trade with US and UK

Log (1+Exports)

Visits by US President 

Visits by Queen Elisabeth II

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Year 6+

Visited country × Partner country FE 
Visited country × Linear trend 
Partner country × Linear trend 

(1)

-0.0093 
(0.0984) 
0.0135 
(0.2269) 
0.0804 
(0.1698) 
0.0417 
(0.1744) 
0.1869 
(0.1804) 
-0.0487 
(0.2711) 
Yes 
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Yes 

(2)

0.2252
(0.1939)
0.0559
(0.1823)
-0.5089
(0.5912)
-0.4062
(0.5858)
-0.4444
(0.5894)
-0.5171
(0.5942)
Yes
Yes
Yes

5,089 
0.73 
0.77

Observations 
R-squared 
Prob > F
Notes: The dependent variable is the natural logarithm of 1 plus total exports from a country visited by the US
President (column (1)) or by Queen Elisabeth II (column (2)). ‘Year 1’, ‘Year 2’, ‘Year 3’, ‘Year 4’, ‘Year 5’, and
‘Year 6+’ are dummy variables equal to one in the respective year(s) after the respective visit, and to zero
otherwise. In column (1), the US is the only trading partner. In column (2), the UK is the only trading partner.
The sample includes all first visits between 1979 and 2002. The sample period is 1975–2007. All regressions
are estimated using OLS and include fixed effects as specified. Standard errors clustered at the visited country
level, where ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1, 5, and 10 percent statistical level, respectively.

5,144
0.71
0.58

ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 54y
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ECB Working Paper Series No 3037 56 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Acknowledgements 

I thank Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (Editor) for her guidance, and three anonymous referees for helping me substantially improve the paper. 
I thank Kalina Manova for her extensive feedback at the early stages of the project, and Peter Karadi, Michael Koetter, Luc Laeven, 
Veronica Rappoport, Clara Sievert, seminar participants at the ECB, and conference participants at the 2023 EEA Annual Meeting in 
Barcelona for valuable comments. Finally, I thank Fabio Comazzi for outstanding and dedicated research assistance. 
The opinions expressed herein are mine and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB or the Eurosystem. 

Alexander Popov 
European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany; Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, United Kingdom; 
email: alexander.popov@ecb.europa.eu 

© European Central Bank, 2025 

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All rights reserved. Any reproduction, publication and reprint in the form of a different publication, whether printed or produced 
electronically, in whole or in part, is permitted only with the explicit written authorisation of the ECB or the authors.  

This paper can be downloaded without charge from www.ecb.europa.eu, from the Social Science Research Network electronic library or 
from RePEc: Research Papers in Economics. Information on all of the papers published in the ECB Working Paper Series can be found 
on the ECB’s website. 

PDF 

ISBN 978-92-899-7122-5 

ISSN 1725-2806 

doi:10.2866/0544669 

QB-01-25-091-EN-N