Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins : December 2024 : GDO analytical report.
Date: 2024-12-17
Institutions: Joint Research Centre
Subjects: South America, drought, environmental impact, environmental monitoring, fire, heatwave, meteorology, soil resources, use of water, water resources

ISSN 1831-9424 

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata 
basins - December 2024 

GDO Analytical Report 

Toreti, A., Bavera, D., Acosta Navarro, J., 
Acquafresca, L., Barbosa, P., de Jager, A., Ficchì, A., 
Fioravanti, G., Grimaldi, S., Hrast Essenfelder, A., 
Magni, D., Mazzeschi, M., McCormick, N., Salamon, P., 
Santos Nunes, S., Volpi, D. 

2024 

EUR 40168 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Contact information  
Name: Andrea Toreti  
Address: Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 ISPRA (VA), Italy 
Email: Andrea.TORETI@ec.europa.eu  

EU Science Hub 
https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu 

JRC140741 

EUR 40168 

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ISSN 1831-9424  doi:10.2760/9524487   KJ-01-24-233-EN-N 

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Page 5, Figure 4, source: The KNMI Climate Explorer 
Page 6, Figure 5, source: The KNMI Climate Explorer 

How to cite this report: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Toreti, A., Bavera, D., Acosta Navarro, J., Acquafresca, 
L., Barbosa, P., De Jager, A., Ficchi, A., Fioravanti, G., Grimaldi, S., Hrast Essenfelder, A., Magni, D., Mazzeschi, M., McCormick, 
N., Salamon, P., Santos Nunes, S. and Volpi, D., Drought in Amazon and La Plata basins - December 2024   GDO Analytical 
Report,  Publications  Office  of  the  European  Union,  Luxembourg,  2024,  https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/9524487, 
JRC140741. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Abstract .................................................................................................................................................................. 1 

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ................................................................................................................... 2 

Temperature ........................................................................................................................................................... 5 

Soil moisture and groundwater .............................................................................................................................. 9 

Vegetation biomass .............................................................................................................................................. 13 

Large-scale drivers ............................................................................................................................................... 15 

Fire danger forecast ............................................................................................................................................. 16 

Seasonal forecast ................................................................................................................................................. 17 

Reported impacts.................................................................................................................................................. 19 

Appendix: GDO and EDO indicators of drought-related information ................................................................... 21 

Glossary of terms and acronyms ......................................................................................................................... 21 

GDO and EDO indicators versioning ..................................................................................................................... 23 

Distribution ........................................................................................................................................................... 23 

List of Figures ....................................................................................................................................................... 23 

Authors ................................................................................................................................................................. 25 

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/  

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GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Abstract 
 

Severe droughts are currently affecting most of the Amazon and the La Plata basins and other regions in 
South America with extremely dry and warm conditions. 

  Heatwaves  and  warm  spells  are  exacerbating  the  impacts  of  the  lack  of  precipitation.  The  average 

 

temperature is abnormally higher than usual. 
Soil moisture and vegetation conditions are severely affected, with negative anomalies over almost the 
whole South America. 

  Many rivers in major basins, including the Amazon and the La Plata, have registered very low discharge 

in 2023-2024. 

  While ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) returned to neutral conditions in the middle of 2024, the tropical 
North Atlantic has been in an exceptionally warm state. This may have contributed to the dry conditions 
and above-average temperatures in most of the region.  

  Water resources have been severely reduced in most of South America with severe ecological, economic, 

and social impacts.  

  Wildfire danger is high in north-eastern Brazil, coastal regions of Peru, central and northern Chile, and 

 

central Argentina. 
Seasonal forecasts point to warmer than average conditions in the coming months.  Precipitation forecasts 
for December 2024 to February 2025 are characterised by higher uncertainty and variability, particularly 
for  central  South  America.  Close  monitoring  of  the  drought  evolution  and  proper  water  use  plans  are 
needed. 

Introduction 

This study is part of the collection GDO analytical reports focused on the analysis of drought events affecting 
Europe as well as the other regions of the world. These studies build on data and information retrieved and 
processed within the European and Global Drought Observatories of the Copernicus Emergency Management 
Service. The Observatories aim at detecting, monitoring, and predicting droughts by using a suite of indices and 
indicators characterising different aspects and phases of a drought. The information is usually complemented 
with additional sections on impacts, large-scale circulation, and other relevant factors.  

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/ 

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GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) 
Severe negative precipitation anomalies are currently affecting many parts of South America. The SPI-3 (i.e. 
SPI for an accumulation period of 3 months) 1 shows extremely dry conditions in most of the Amazon basin 
and part of the La Plata basin. The driest regions are in the Pantanal and along the Amazon River (Fig. 1). 

The longer accumulation SPI periods from 6 to 24 months ending in November 2024 are shown in Figure 2. 
These maps highlight the long-lasting lack of precipitation affecting directly water resources, river flows and 
the  hydrology  in  general.  The  most  affected  regions  are  almost  the  whole  Amazon  basin  and  the  central-
southern part of the La Plata basin. Additionally, by comparing the different accumulation periods including 
also SPI-3 (Fig. 1), a remarkable drought persistence, in term of duration and spatial pattern, emerges (despite 
a slight improvement in the recent months in terms of precipitation). The reduction of the extent and severity 
of the SPI-3 anomalies (Fig.1) compared to the SPI-6 (Fig.2 top-left) reveals that the last three months have 
been less critical than the previous ones. Similarly, SPI-12 and SPI-24 are slightly better than SPI-6 (Fig. 2), 
showing that the most critical months in terms of meteorological drought were May-July 2024. Additionally, 
northern Argentina and eastern Brazil are showing some recovery. However, all the regions with extremely drier 
than  normal  SPI-24  values  are  severely  affected  by  drought  and  in  critical  conditions  in  terms  of  water 
resources. These regions include most of the Amazon and the La Plata basins. 

Figure 1: Standardized Precipitation Index SPI-3 for the 3-month accumulation period ending on 30 November 2024.1 

1 For more details on the SPI, and the other GDO and EDO indicators of drought-related information used in this report, see the Appendix 
at the end of the document. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/ 

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GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

SPI-6 

SPI-12 

SPI-24 

Figure 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-6, 12, 24), for 6, 12, 24-month accumulation periods respectively ending 
on 30 November 2024.1 

  October 
Different  evolving  phases  of  meteorological  drought  occurred  during  the  period  November 2023 
2024 (Fig. 3). After November 2023, when the extent of the severe meteorological drought was covering almost 
the whole Amazon and La Plata basins, the drier than normal conditions slowly reduced and partially faded 
out. In February-June 2024, only the central-southern Amazon and the north-western La Plata basins were still 
under drier than normal conditions. Suddenly, in July 2024 the meteorological drought worsened and expanded 
again covering almost the whole South America till September 2024. Since October 2024 a slight improvement 
has been observed. 

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GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Figure  3:  Standardized  Precipitation  Index  SPI-3  for  the  3-month  accumulation  period  at  the  end  of  each  month  from 
November 2023 to October 20241 

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GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Temperature 
October  2024  has  been  warmer  than  average  (baseline  1991-2020)  in  most  of  South  America.  Northern 
Argentina, some regions in Bolivia, southern Peru, and in  western and southern Brazil  experienced October-
2024  average  temperature  anomalies  higher  than  2  °C.  Almost  the  whole  Amazon  and  La  Plata  basins 
registered positive temperature anomaly (Fig. 4).  

The yearly average temperature anomalies (November 2023 - October 2024) have been almost everywhere 
positive within the study area, with very few exceptions (e.g. central western Argentina). Bolivia, south-eastern 
Peru, northern Argentina, and southern Brazil experienced yearly anomalies higher than 2 °C (Fig. 5). 

Figure  4:  Average  temperature  anomaly  (ERA5,  ECMWF  (European  Centre  for  Medium-Range  Weather  Forecasts) 
Reanalysis v5 ) computed for October 2024. Baseline 1991-2020. Source: The KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch 
Instituut) Climate Explorer.2 

2 The KNMI Climate Explorer https://climexp.knmi.nl  

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GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
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JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Figure 5: Average yearly temperature anomaly (ERA5) computed for the period November 2023 - October 2024 (baseline 
1991-2020). Source: The KNMI Climate Explorer.2  

Persistent  positive  temperature  anomalies  were  also  associated  with  heatwaves  and  warm  spells.  Once  an 
event is detected, two main characteristics can be derived: duration and intensity. The duration is simply the 
count of the consecutive days belonging to the event. The intensity is calculated as the sum of the temperature 
exceedances relative to the 90th climatological quantile throughout the event.3 

In November 2024, a long-lasting heatwave event hit Venezuela, Guyana, and the northern regions of Brazil, 
with maximum duration longer than 15 days (Fig. 6).  

3 Lavaysse, C., Cammalleri, C., Dosio, A., van der Schrier, G., Toreti, A., and Vogt, J.: Towards a monitoring system of temperature extremes 
in Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 91 104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-91-2018, 2018. 

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GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Figure 6: Duration of the heatwaves/warm spells detected on 5 November 2024.  

Throughout the whole period from November 2023 to October 2024, the longest heatwaves/warm spells have 
been detected for central-northern South America, affecting mostly northern parts of the Amazon basin, with 
maximum duration exceeding 2 months (Fig. 7). The intensity map shows that the most severe events in the 
same  period  occurred  in  central  and  northern  South  America,  in  particular,  in  Venezuela,  northern  Brazil, 
northern Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, and northern Argentina (Fig. 8). 

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GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Figure 7: Maximum duration of the heatwaves/warm spells detected during the period from November 2023 to October 
2024.  

Figure 8: Maximum intensity of the heatwaves/warm spells detected during the period from November 2023 to October 
2024.  

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GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Soil moisture and groundwater 
In late November 2024, soil moisture anomalies have been remarkably negative over almost the whole Amazon 
basin and the central part of the La Plata basin (Fig. 9). These conditions are the result of a combination of 
extremely low precipitation and high temperatures in the previous months. The drier-than-normal soil moisture 
pattern is consistent with the precipitation deficit of the previous months (see Fig. 1). Moreover, the regions 
with  the  strongest  negative  precipitation  anomalies  were  also  affected  by  positive  temperature  anomalies. 
These compound factors contributed to exacerbate water loss from the soil due to stronger evapotranspiration 
potential. Indeed, large areas in South America show soil moisture anomalies below -2, corresponding to the 
driest class of the GDO indicator (Fig. 9).4 

Concerning  the  evolution  of  soil  moisture  anomalies  (Fig.  10),  a  strong  persistence  with  some  spatial  and 
temporal variability is estimated. South America has been almost continuously affected by dry soil moisture 
with only few local and temporary  recovery (e.g. in eastern Brazil in  February-April 2024).  After the severe 
drought of the previous years, the extent of the drier than normal area reached its maximum in late 2023. 
Afterwards, slightly reduced  reaching  its minimum in  April-May 2024. Conditions quickly worsened again in 
October-November 2024, getting back to an extent similar to late 2023 (Figs. 9 and 10). 

Figure 9: Soil Moisture Index Anomaly, late November 2024. 4 

4 For more details on the Soil Moisture Anomaly, and the other GDO and EDO indicators of drought-related information used in the report, 
see the Appendix at the end of the document. Note that the map of the latest Soil Moisture Anomaly in figure 14 and those in Figure 15 
have been produced using a provisional product including only the modelled data from the Lisflood model used in GloFAS. A new updated 
version of the ensemble product is under development.  

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GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Figure 10: Soil Moisture Index Anomaly, 10-day periods from November 2023 to October 2024.4 

The  Total  Water  Storage  (TWS)  Anomaly  indicator  is  used  for  determining  the  occurrence  of  long-term 
hydrological drought conditions and is often used as a proxy of substantial lowering of the groundwater level. 
This indicator is computed as anomalies of TWS data derived from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate 
Experiment) twin satellites.5 

5 Landerer,   F.W.;   Swenson,   S.C.   Accuracy   of   scaled   GRACE   terrestrial   water   storage estimates. Water Resour.Res. 2012, 48, 
W04531 

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GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

The TWS anomaly has a good correlation with long-term SPI (12, 24, 48 months).6 In September 2024, large 
areas  of  the  Amazon  and  the  La  Plata  basins  were  suffering  from  severe  negative  anomalies,  particularly 
affecting western Brazil, eastern Peru, and most of Bolivia (Fig. 11).7 

Figure 11: GRACE-derived Total Water Storage (TWS) Anomaly, for September 2024.7 

Figure 12 shows the evolution of TWS anomaly from September 2023 to August 2024. In South America, after 
an almost normal period (ending in September 2023), dry conditions affected the Amazon and La Plata basins 
with persistent and severely dry anomalies since October 2023.  

6 Cammalleri, C., Barbosa, P., Vogt, J.V. 2019. Analysing the Relationship between Multiple-Timescale   SPI   and   GRACE   Terrestrial   Water   
Storage   in   the   Framework   of   Drought Monitoring. Water 11(8), 1672. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081672. 

7 For more details on the GRACE-derived Total Water Storage (TWS) Anomaly indicator, and the other GDO and EDO indicators of drought-
related information used in the report, see the Appendix at the end of the document. 

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GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Figure 12: GRACE-derived Total Water Storage (TWS) Anomaly, from September 2023 to August 2024.7 

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JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Vegetation biomass 
In late November 2024, the satellite-derived fAPAR (Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation) 
anomaly  indicator8  shows  vegetation  stress  over  large  parts  of  the  Amazon  basin  and  the  La  Plata  basin. 
Northern  Bolivia  and  central-northern  Argentina  are  the  most  severely  affected  regions  (Fig.  13).  The  high 
number of missing data make it difficult to assess the real evolution respect to the previous months. 

The  evolution  of  the  fAPAR  anomaly  from  November  2023  to  October  2024  (Fig.  14)  points  to  variable 
vegetation stress conditions, with relevant spatial differences. Alternating worsening and improving conditions 
are visible in South America, but the main spatial pattern remains stable in time with good vegetation conditions 
mainly in eastern Brazil and overall in north-eastern Argentina. In November 2023, most of northern Argentina 
and Bolivia were severely affected.  Afterwards, the poor  vegetation conditions expanded from the  La Plata 
basin to the Amazon basin with severe worsening from July 2024 onward.  

Figure 13: Satellite-derived fAPAR anomaly indicator (measuring photosynthetic activity of vegetation) in late November 
2024.8  

8 For more details on the satellite-derived Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) anomaly indicator, and the 
other GDO and EDO indicators of drought-related information used in the report, see the Appendix at the end of the document. 

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Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
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JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
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Figure 14: Satellite-derived fAPAR anomaly indicator (measuring photosynthetic activity of vegetation) at the end of each 
month from November 2023 to October 2024. 8 

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JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Large-scale drivers  
The neighbouring Pacific and Atlantic Oceans have a strong influence on hydroclimatic conditions across South 
America. The combined variability of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) 
explains more than half of the variance of the annual Amazon rainfall9.   

During  positive  ENSO  events  (i.e.  El  Niño),  warmer-than-average  eastern  and  central  tropical  Pacific  water 
induces  atmospheric  stability  in  the  northern  Amazon  basin,  and  the  region  typically  experiences  drier  and 
warmer conditions than usual10 between June and March. On the other hand, El Niño usually drives wetter-
than-average conditions in the La Plata basin from September to January11.   

A warmer-than-usual TNA drives a reduction of moisture flux to the Amazon basin from the Atlantic Ocean 
through  changes  in  atmospheric  circulation.  This  oceanic  moisture  is  essential  for  feeding  the  rainforest 
mechanism of  moisture  recycling  through  successive  evapotranspiration  and  precipitation  cycles, impacting 
particularly  the  southern  part  of  the  basin  during  the  dry  season9.  An  important  fraction  of  the  rainfall  in 
downwind regions such as Pantanal and the La Plata basin is generated from moisture that originates in the 
Amazon and transported southwards by the South American Low-Level Jet12. This means that a large scale 
drying of the Amazon basin induced by El Niño, a warm TNA or other driver, could also partially lead to drought 
conditions further south.  

The period from June 2023 to May 2024 was marked by an El Niño event that peaked around the end of 2023 
(Fig. 15) and returned to neutral conditions during the austral winter (June-August) of 2024. The TNA, despite 
having peaked already at the beginning of 2024 is still in an extraordinarily warm phase not seen since at least 
1900 (Fig 15). The contribution of these two drivers, exacerbated by climate change, is likely to be the main 
large-scale driver of the widespread drought conditions in most of South America in the last year13.   

Figure  15:  Left:  Relative  NINO3.4  index  (after  removing  the  warming  signal).  Right:  Linearly  detrended  Tropical  North 
Atlantic (TNA) Index. The series are smoothed using a 12-month running mean. The last month used in the analysis of the 
timeseries is October 2024.The NINO3.4 and TNA regions are defined by the spatial averages in the boxes from 5S-5N and 
170W-120W, and from 5N-25N and 70W-10W, respectively. Source: ERSSTv5.  

9 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-009-0551-6 

10 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-58782-5 

11 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/6/WAF-D-19-0235.1.xml 

12 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-012-0637-7 

13 https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC139423 

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Fire danger forecast 

The  wildfire  hazard  is  a  direct  consequence  of  the  elevated  temperature  anomalies  and  surface  dryness, 
combined with the availability of fuel (i.e. dry litter and wood). The CEMS (Copernicus Emergency Management 
Service) Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS) provides mapping services of the fire danger forecast all 
over the world.14 A moderate-to-very high danger is shown over north-eastern Brazil, coastal regions of Peru, 
central and northern Chile, and central Argentina up to 30 November 2024 (Fig. 16). 

Figure 16: Fire danger forecast expressed by the Fire Weather Index up to 30 November 2024. Data source: Global Wildfire 
Information System (GWIS) 14. 

14 https://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/  

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JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Seasonal forecast 

From December 2024 to February 2025, drier than average conditions (baseline 1981-2016) are predicted 
over  central-eastern  Brazil,  most  of  Bolivia,  northern  Argentina,  and  central  Chile.  Wetter  than  average 
conditions are predicted over northern South America (Fig. 17).  

According to the Copernicus C3S (Copernicus Climate Change Service) seasonal forecasts15, warmer than usual 
conditions  are  likely  to  occur  in  the  whole  South  America  up  to  February  2025.  Precipitation  forecasts 
  February  2025)  are  lower  than  average  for  eastern  Brazil,  while  wetter  than  normal 
(December  2024 
conditions are predicted for northern South America.  Strong differences and great variability between models 
give a relevant uncertainty for precipitation seasonal forecast, in particular for central South America. Close 
monitoring is required to assess the severity and the extent of the impacts over the coming season.  

Figure 17: Multi-system Indicator for Forecasting Unusually Wet and Dry Conditions, December 2024 
 February 2025, 
based  on  dynamic  forecasting  systems  from  seven  producing  centres  :  ECMWF  (European  Centre  for  Medium-Range 
Weather  Forecasts),  CMCC  (Centro  Euro-Mediterraneo  sui  Cambiamenti  Climatici),  DWD  (Deutscher  Wetterdienst),  ECCC 
(Environment and Climate Change Canada), Météo France, NCEP (USA National Centers for Environmental Prediction), UKMO 
(UK Meteorological Office).16 

15  https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts  

16 For more details on the Indicator for Forecasting Unusually Wet and Dry Conditions, and the other GDO and EDO indicators of drought-
related information used in the report, see the Appendix at the end of the document. 

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The probability of occurrence of low river flows anomalies (compared with the seasonal discharge thresholds 
generated  using  the  CEMS  GloFAS,  Global  Flood  Awareness  System,  seasonal  reforecast17)  from  November 
2024 to February 2025 is high in most of Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia. Medium-low probability is forecasted for 
the rest of South America, as shown in Figure 1818. It shows the maximum probability of high flow or low flow 
anomaly, averaged for each major basin, and at any point in the forecast lead time.19 The prolonged lack of 
precipitation,  severe heatwaves, and warmer-than-average forecast are likely to  reduce river flows  further, 
with direct impacts on agriculture, ecosystems and energy production. Water resource management should be 
cautiously planned to limit impacts. 

Figure 18: Maximum probability [%] of high (> 80th percentile) or low (< 20th percentile) river flow, during the 4-month 
forecast horizon (November 2024 
 February 2025) for basins and river network. Source: CEMS Global Flood Awareness 
System (GloFAS).20 

17 https://global-flood.emergency.copernicus.eu/technical-information/glofas-seasonal/  

18 The analysis is based on the CEMS GloFAS global implementation of open source LISFLOOD hydrological model outputs driven by 51 
ensemble members of the ECMWF SEAS5 forecast. For more information: https://ec-jrc.github.io/lisflood/  

19 The Basin Overview gives a quick global overview, for more detailed information across the river network, and sub-basin differences, it 
is recommended to refer to the Seasonal Outlook - River Network and Seasonal Outlook - Reporting Points products.  

20 https://global-flood.emergency.copernicus.eu/  

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/ 

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Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Reported impacts 
According to GEOGLAM (Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring) Crop Monitor bulletins of 
November 202421, at the end of October mixed crop conditions and forecasts have been reported for Argentina 
and Brazil. In Argentina, wheat conditions have improved in the central agricultural areas (due to recent rainfall 
events), but northern and central-western regions face reduced yields due to prolonged drought. As for maize, 
sowing of the early-planted crop is ongoing under favourable conditions, while in Brazil, sowing of the spring-
planted crop is progressing under similar conditions, albeit with a reduced total sown area expected. In Brazil, 
rice sowing continues under favourable conditions and regular rainfall has supported soybean sowing activities 
in  the  central-western,  southern,  and  southeastern  regions,  with  an  estimated  increase  in  total  sown  area. 
However, soybean sowing in the north is delayed due to lack of rainfall. The forecast for Argentina indicates 
slightly  drier-than-average  conditions  for  the  next  two  weeks and drier-than-average  conditions  across  the 
core agricultural areas in the long-term. In contrast, Brazil's November outlook suggests a mix of above and 
below-average  precipitation,  with  temperatures  likely  to  be  above-average,  potentially  alleviating  drought 
conditions in some regions while exacerbating them in others. 

CEMADEN (Centro de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais, the Brazilian Natural Disaster Monitoring 
and Alert Center) has released a comprehensive drought situational assessment of the Brazilian territory on 
September  202422.  The  report  indicates  that  many  municipalities  have  faced  drought  conditions  for  12 
consecutive months, which has significantly reduced river levels and increased the risk of fire spreading. Many 
regions in Brazil have faced a considerable number of consecutive days without rain: the Central-West, part of 
the  Southeast  and  Northeast  regions  are  the  most  affected  by  the  water  deficit,  with  more  than  100 
consecutive days without precipitation, especially in Goiás and parts of the states of Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais 
and Bahia. Municipalities in the state of Minas Gerais such as Verdelândia, Nova Porteirinha, Pai Pedro, Janaúba, 
Catuti and Capitão Enéas, as well as others in the surrounding area, have already accumulated around 150 
days without rain. The report highlights that, in addition to its intensity, the current drought is already one of 
the longest in recent decades.  

INPA  (Instituto  Nacional  de  Pesquisas  da  Amazônia,  the  Brazilian  National  Institute  for  Amazon  Research) 
indicates that forest fires have been a source of concern in the Amazon region in 2023 and 202423, resulting 
in higher than usual concentrations of particulate matter and pollution in the atmosphere. Indeed, monitoring 
stations in the area have recorded extremely high carbon monoxide levels of about 3,000 ppb (parts per billion) 
in late 2023 (for reference, in April and May, which are part of the rainy season, the number varies between 
80 and 100 ppb). The increase in fires in the Amazon region combined with wind dynamics favoured the arrival 
of smoke plumes to far reaching places in the country, including major cities in the South and Southeast regions 
of Brazil. 

South America's major rivers are facing unprecedented low water levels due to severe droughts episodes in 
the  continent,  disrupting  shipping  and  agriculture,  particularly  in  the  Amazon  and  Paraná  river  basins.  The 
Paraguay  River  has  seen  a  record  low  level  while  the  Paraná  River  in  Argentina  is  also  near  to  year-lows, 
impacting  grain  shipments,  fishing,  and  navigation  in  countries  such  as  Bolivia,  Paraguay,  Argentina,  and 
Brazil24. 

21 https://www.cropmonitor.org/  

22 https://www.gov.br/cemaden/pt-br/assuntos/monitoramento/monitoramento-de-seca-para-o-brasil/monitoramento-de-secas-e-
impactos-no-brasil-agosto-2024/NOTATECNICAN529202SEICEMADENSECAS.pdf  

23 https://www.gov.br/mcti/pt-br/acompanhe-o-mcti/noticias/2024/09/queimadas-aumentam-em-ate-80-vezes-a-concentracao-de-
poluentes-na-atmosfera-da-amazonia  

24 https://apnews.com/article/paraguay-river-drought-amazon-fires-climate-change-deforestation-shortage-
ce7bb22855f6ed9af43381aa246c7d30 

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/ 

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Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

work. The Amazon and one of its main tributaries, the Madeira River, have also registered new daily record 
lows25. 

The  Brazilian  president  Lula  da  Silva  announced  in  September  2024  the  plan  to  create  a  National  Climate 
Authority, with the aim to deal with extreme natural phenomena26. 

25 https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-amazon-drought-disrupts-residents-lives-2024-09-15/  

26 https://en.mercopress.com/2024/09/11/brazil-lula-announces-creation-of-national-climate-authority  

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/ 

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Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Appendix: GDO and EDO indicators of drought-related information 
The  Standardized  Precipitation  Index  (SPI)  provides  information  on  the  intensity  and  duration  of  the 
precipitation deficit (or surplus). SPI is used to monitor the occurrence of drought. The lower (i.e., more negative) 
the SPI, the more intense is the drought. SPI can be computed for different accumulation periods: the 3-month 
period  is  often  used  to  evaluate  agricultural  drought  and  the  12-month  (or  even  24-month)  period  for 
hydrological drought, when rivers fall dry and groundwater tables lower. 

Lack  of  precipitation  induces  a  reduction  of  soil  water  content.  The  Soil  Moisture  Anomaly  provides  an 
assessment of the deviations from normal conditions of  root zone  water content. It is a  direct measure of 
drought associated with the difficulty of plants in extracting water from the soil. 

The  satellite-based  fraction  of  Absorbed  Photosynthetically  Active  Radiation  (fAPAR)  monitors  the 
fraction of solar energy absorbed by leaves. It is a measure of vegetation health and growth. Negative fAPAR 
anomalies with respect to the long-term average are associated with negative impacts on vegetation. 

The  Multi-system  Indicator  for  Forecasting  Unusually  Wet  and  Dry  Conditions  provides  early  risk 
information for Europe. The indicator is computed from forecasted SPI-1, SPI-3, and SPI-6 derived from seven 
components:  ECMWF  (European  Centre  for  Medium-Range  Weather  Forecasts),  CMCC  (Centro  Euro-
Mediterraneo  sui  Cambiamenti  Climatici),  DWD  (Deutscher  Wetterdienst),  ECCC  (Environment  and  Climate 
Change  Canada),  Météo  France,  NCEP  (USA  National  Centers  for  Environmental  Prediction),  UKMO  (UK 
Meteorological Office). 

Check https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/factsheets for more details on the indicators.  

Glossary of terms and acronyms  

C3S 
CEMADEN 
CEMS  
CMCC 
DWD 
EDO  
EC  
ECCC 
ECMWF   
ENSO 
ERA5  
ERCC  
fAPAR 
GDO  
GEOGLAM 
GloFAS   
GRACE 
GWIS 
INPA 
JMA 
JRC  
KNMI 
NCEP 
ppb 
SEAS5 
SMA  

Copernicus Climate Change Service 
Centro de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais 
Copernicus Emergency Management Service  
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici 
Deutscher Wetterdienst 
European Drought Observatory of CEMS 
European Commission  
Environment and Climate Change Canada 
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts  
El Niño Southern Oscillation 
ECMWF Reanalysis v5  
European Emergency Response Coordination Centre  
Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation 
Global Drought Observatory of CEMS 
Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring 
Global Flood Awareness System of CEMS 
Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment 
Global Wildfire Information System  
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia 
Japan Meteorological Agency 
Joint Research Centre  
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut 
USA National Centers for Environmental Prediction 
parts per billion 
Seasonal Forecasting System 5 
Soil Moisture Anomaly   

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/ 

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Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

SPI  
TNA 
TWS 
UK 
UKMO 
UN 
USA 
VIIRS 

Standardized Precipitation Index 
Tropical North Atlantic 
Total Water Storage 
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 
UK Meteorological Office 
United Nations 
United States of America 
Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite 

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/ 

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GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

GDO and EDO indicators versioning 

The GDO and EDO indicators appear in this report with the following versions: 

GDO, EDO indicator 
 
 

Soil Moisture Index Anomaly (SMA)  
Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) Anomaly (VIIRS, 
Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) 

  GRACE-derived Total Water Storage (TWS) Anomaly 
  Multi-System Indicator for Forecasting Unusually Wet and Dry Conditions  
 

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, CHIRPS) 

Version 
v. 3.0.0 
v. 3.0.0 

v. 2.1.0 

v. 1.2.0 
v. 2.0.0 

Check https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/download for more details on indicator versions.  

Distribution 

For  use  by  the  ERCC  and  related  partners,  and  publicly  available  for  download  at  GDO  website: 
https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/reports  

List of Figures 

Figure 1: Standardized Precipitation Index SPI-3 for the 3-month accumulation period ending on 30 
November 2024.1 ................................................................................................................................................... 2 
Figure 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-6, 12, 24), for 6, 12, 24-month accumulation periods 
respectively ending on 30 November 2024.1 ........................................................................................................ 3 
Figure 3: Standardized Precipitation Index SPI-3 for the 3-month accumulation period at the end of each 
month from November 2023 to October 20241 .................................................................................................... 4 
Figure 4: Average temperature anomaly (ERA5, ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather 
Forecasts) Reanalysis v5 ) computed for October 2024. Baseline 1991-2020. Source: The KNMI (Koninklijk 
Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) Climate Explorer. ....................................................................................... 5 
Figure 5: Average yearly temperature anomaly (ERA5) computed for the period November 2023 - October 
2024 (baseline 1991-2020). Source: The KNMI Climate Explorer.2 ...................................................................... 6 
Figure 6: Duration of the heatwaves/warm spells detected on 5 November 2024. ........................................... 7 
Figure 7: Maximum duration of the heatwaves/warm spells detected during the period from November 2023 
to October 2024. .................................................................................................................................................... 8 
Figure 8: Maximum intensity of the heatwaves/warm spells detected during the period from November 2023 
to October 2024. .................................................................................................................................................... 8 
Figure 9: Soil Moisture Index Anomaly, late November 2024. 4........................................................................... 9 
Figure 10: Soil Moisture Index Anomaly, 10-day periods from November 2023 to October 2024.4 ............... 10 
Figure 11: GRACE-derived Total Water Storage (TWS) Anomaly, for September 2024.7 ................................. 11 
Figure 12: GRACE-derived Total Water Storage (TWS) Anomaly, from September 2023 to August 2024.7 .... 12 
Figure 13: Satellite-derived fAPAR anomaly indicator (measuring photosynthetic activity of vegetation) in 
late November 2024.8 .......................................................................................................................................... 13 
Figure 14: Satellite-derived fAPAR anomaly indicator (measuring photosynthetic activity of vegetation) at 
the end of each month from November 2023 to October 2024. 8 ..................................................................... 14 
Figure 15: Left: Relative NINO3.4 index (after removing the warming signal). Right: Linearly detrended 
Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) Index. The series are smoothed using a 12-month running mean. The last month 
used in the analysis of the timeseries is October 2024.The NINO3.4 and TNA regions are defined by the 

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/ 

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GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

spatial averages in the boxes from 5S-5N and 170W-120W, and from 5N-25N and 70W-10W, respectively. 
Source: ERSSTv5. .................................................................................................................................................. 15 
Figure 16: Fire danger forecast expressed by the Fire Weather Index up to 30 November 2024. Data source: 
Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS) 14. .................................................................................................... 16 
Figure 17: Multi-system Indicator for Forecasting Unusually Wet and Dry Conditions, December 2024 
February 2025, based on dynamic forecasting systems from seven producing centres : ECMWF (European 
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici), 
DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst), ECCC (Environment and Climate Change Canada), Météo France, NCEP (USA 
National Centers for Environmental Prediction), UKMO (UK Meteorological Office). .......................................... 17 
Figure 18: Maximum probability [%] of high (> 80th percentile) or low (< 20th percentile) river flow, during 
the 4-month forecast horizon (November 2024   February 2025) for basins and river network. Source: CEMS 
Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). .......................................................................................................... 18 

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/ 

24 

 
 
 
 
 
 
GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins - December 
2024 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service 
(CEMS) - GDO data up to 30/11/2024  

Authors  

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Dir. Societal Resilience and Security, Disaster Risk 
Management Unit - Drought Team 

Toreti A. (Team Leader), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

Bavera D., Arcadia SIT, Milano, Italy. 

Acosta Navarro J., European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

Acquafresca L., Unisystems, Luxembourg. 

Barbosa P., European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

de Jager A., European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

Ficchì A., NRB Italy / Trasys International. 

Fioravanti G., European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

Hrast Essenfelder A., European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

Magni D., Arcadia SIT, Milano, Italy. 

Mazzeschi M., Unisystems, Luxembourg. 

McCormick N., European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

Santos Nunes S., Seidor, Milano, Italy. 

Volpi D, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Dir. Societal Resilience and Security, Disaster Risk 
Management Unit - Floods Team 

Salamon P. (Team Leader), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

Grimaldi S., European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. 

Disclaimer and Legal Notice: this report by the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) is based 
on products under constant development that may change at any time without notice. It was generated using 
the  Copernicus  Emergency  Management  Service  information  (2023).  The  views  here  expressed  may  not  be 
regarded  as  an  official  position  of  the  European  Commission  (EC)  in  any  circumstances.  The  designations 
employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever 
on  the  part  of  the  European  Union  concerning  the  legal  status  of  any  country,  territory  or  area  or  of  its 
authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/ 

25 

 
 
 
 
 
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