COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT On the changes in the scoreboard of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Accompanying the document COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL AND THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE Alert Mechanism Report 2025 prepared in accordance with Article 3 of Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances
Date: 2024-12-17
Institutions: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission
Subjects: economic disparity, economic growth, economic recovery, economic statistics, euro area, inflation, macroeconomics, multilateral surveillance, national accounts, public debt

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Strasbourg, 17.12.2024  SWD(2024) 702 final  COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT On the changes in the scoreboard of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure       Accompanying the document COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL AND THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE Alert Mechanism Report 2025    prepared in accordance with Article 3 of Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011   on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances {COM(2024) 702 final} - {SWD(2024) 700 final} - {SWD(2024) 701 final}  
 
 
This  Commission  staff  working  document  specifies  the  changes  to  the  Macroeconomic 
Imbalance  Procedure  (MIP)  scoreboard  that  are  implemented  in  the  context  of  its  regular 
review  process.  The  adjusted  scoreboard  is  used  in  the  current  2025  European  Semester, 
starting with the publication of the Alert Mechanism Report. 

1.  Background  

The  macroeconomic  imbalance  procedure  (MIP)  Regulation1  sets  out  that  the 
Commission  should  regularly  assess  the  appropriateness  of  the  MIP  scoreboard.2  This 
regular assessment may concern the composition of the indicators, the thresholds set, and the 
methodology used to calculate the indicators and has regularly led to scoreboard adjustments 
in  the past. The Commission  has  informed the European Parliament and  the Council of  the 
envisaged changes to  the indicators and thresholds and explained  its  reasons for suggesting 
such changes. There was broad support in both the European Parliament and the Council with 
the changes envisaged, although there were some calls for further revisions.  The work of the 
ESRB  has  been  considered  for  indicators  relevant  to  financial  market  stability.  Finally,  the 
Commission is required to make the set of indicators and thresholds in the scoreboard public.  

The  revisions  account  for  the  latest  developments  in  statistical  indicators  and  aim  at 
making the scoreboard more compact, better balanced between different thematic blocks, 
and  more  forward-looking.  They  are  guided  by  the  following  principles:  (i)  stability 
(avoiding  excessively  frequent  revisions);  (ii)  no  variable  proliferation  (the  number  of 
variables  as  a  rule  should  not  increase,  to  respect  the  regulation  requirement  regarding 
parsimony of the scoreboard); (iii) relevance and salience for MIP surveillance; and (iv) the 
need to account for ongoing statistical quality improvements.3 

The current note presents the revisions to the MIP scoreboard. The changes are described 
in Section 2, and Section 3 presents the main observations from a first test run of the revised 
scoreboard based on 2022 data.  

2.  Revisions of the MIP scoreboard 

The main changes for the MIP scoreboard can be set out by thematic blocks:4  

•  For  the  external  sector  block,  no  changes  are  made  to  the  headline  indicators  or  their 
thresholds.  The  scoreboard  retains  the  three-average  of  current  account  balances  (with 
thresholds -4/+6% of GDP) and the NIIP (with a threshold of -35% of GDP) as headline 
indicators.  Two  of  the  five  associated  auxiliary  indicators,  notably  those  related  to  FDI 
flows and stocks are dropped in the interest of parsimony.  

•  For the competitiveness block, with regard to the headline indicators, the thresholds of the 
HICP-based REERs is narrowed down from ±5% for EA and ±11% for non-EA countries 
to  ±3%  for  EA  and  ±10%  for  non-EA  countries  to  take  into  account  the  distributional 
characteristics of more recent data (for more details, see Annex 2). The indicator on export 

1 Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 November 2011 on the 
prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances, OJ L 306, 23/11/2011, p. 25. 
2 Article 4(7) of Regulation (EU) 1176/2011. For an overview of past changes, see Annex 5. 
3 Chairman’s Summary of the LIME Working Group meeting on 15 June 2016, presented to EPC, June 24 2016 
4 An overview of the indicators in the previous version of the MIP scoreboard that underpinned the 2024 MIP 
round is presented in Annex 1. 

1 

 
 
 
 
performance against advanced economies5 is upgraded from auxiliary to headline indicator, 
as it can be considered to offer a more relevant basis for comparison of EU economies than 
the  export  market  share,  which  is  downgraded  to  the  auxiliary  indicators.  Export 
performance  is  expressed  as  a  3-year  instead  of  a  5-year  change  (%),  to  enhance  its 
relevance from a forward-looking perspective, and a lower threshold of -3% applies (based 
on 25th percentile of the 1995-2022 sample; see Annex 2). A new definition (based on hours 
worked) is used for nominal unit labour costs (NULC), as data recently became available, 
while retaining the existing thresholds of 9% for euro area Members, and 12% for other 
Member  States,  as  the  distributional  characteristics  of  the  old  indicator  are  not  very 
different  from  those  of  the  new  indicator  (see  Annex  2).  With  regard  to  the  auxiliary 
indicators, the previous headline indicator on the export market share (% world exports) is 
moved to the auxiliary indicators (and expressed as 3-year instead of a 5-year change (%)); 
real  GDP  growth  is  henceforth  replaced  by  real  GDP  per  capita  (in  EUR,  chain-linked 
volumes); labour productivity is calculated on the basis of hours worked instead of persons 
employed; and the core inflation differential (pps) vis-à-vis the euro area is introduced as a 
new auxiliary indicator. Furthermore, a number of auxiliary variables are dropped in the 
interest of parsimony: the real effective exchange rate vis a vis euro area trading partners, 
the  export  market  share  in  volumes,  terms  of  trade,  and  unit  labour  cost  performance 
relative to the EA. 

•  For the public and private debt block, the private debt stock is split out into household 
(+NPISH)6 debt and debt of non-financial corporations (NFC) in recognition of the need 
for  separate  analysis.  The  applicable  thresholds  are  55%  and  85%  of  GDP  respectively 
(based on 75th percentile of 1995-2007 sample, see Annex 2). To acknowledge that gross 
disposable household income is a better measure of households’ repayment capacity than 
GDP,  while  data  coverage  remains  incomplete,  household  debt  as  a  share  of  gross 
disposable household income is introduced as a new auxiliary indicator.7  

•  Private credit flows are split between households (including NPISH) and NFCs, allowing 
the use of more sector-specific denominators, in particular sectoral debt stocks in t – 1. FDI 
flows  are  excluded  from  the  credit  flows  to  NFCs  (both  in  the  numerator  and  in  the 
denominator) to account for the fact that FDI lending has a different impact on the domestic 
financial stability than internal lending.  It is noteworthy that as a consequence, the debt 
stock in the denominator of the credit flows headline indicator is different from the debt 
stock used in the debt stock headline indicator. Based on the 75th percentile of the statistical 
distribution over the full time series available (1996-2022), the thresholds can then be set 
at 14% for HH credit flows and 13% for NFC credit flows respectively (for more details, 
see  Annex  2).  For  NFC  credit  flows,  thresholds  have  been  calculated  based  on  the  75th 
percentile of the statistical distribution of the data that do not exclude FDI debt because of 
the lack of historical data on FDI debt. However, statistics on the past decade, for which 
FDI debt data are more complete, suggests that the 75th percentile is relatively similar for 
the  version  of  the  indicator  that  excludes  and  the  version  of  the  indicator  that  does  not 
exclude FDI debt. 

5  Export  performance against  advanced  economies  measures  developments  in  shares  of  exports  of  goods  and 
services of EU Member States in relation to total exports of goods and services of OECD countries and non-
OECD EU Member States (see ESTAT variable tipsbp60). 
6 NPISH: non-profit institutions serving households. 
7 Data on gross disposable household income are taken from Eurostat sector accounts data [nasa_10_nf_tr]. They 
refer to adjusted gross disposable income (B7G rather than B6G) to take into account social transfers in kind. 
Currently, no annual data are available on gross disposable household income for Malta and Romania, while for 
Bulgaria data are only available up to 2017.  

2 

 
 
 
 
•  For the financial sector block, the headline indicator (total financial sector liabilities) is 
dropped  in  recognition  of  the  absence  of  a  comprehensive  financial  sector  indicator  for 
which  a  threshold  could  sensibly  be  determined;  and  of  the  existence  of  several  other 
financial  sector  surveillance  mechanisms  that  have  by  now  been  set  up  at  the  EU-level 
outside of the MIP. Instead, the financial sector will be monitored henceforth through three 
auxiliary indicators covering the banking sector. The auxiliary indicator on non-performing 
loans remains in place. Two new auxiliary indicators are introduced: the tier-1 capital ratio 
of the banking sector8 as a % of risk-weighted assets, to assess bank capitalization, and the 
return  on  equity  of  the  banking  sector  (%),  to  assess  their  profitability.  The  previous 
auxiliary indicator on banking leverage is dropped. The lack of a headline indicator in the 
Scoreboard by no means implies reduced importance given to the financial sector in the 
Commission’s macroeconomic surveillance. 

•  For  the  housing  market  block,  the  current  headline  indicator,  the  deflated  house  price 
index  (annual  change),  is  replaced  by  the  nominal  house  price  index  (annual  change)9, 
which proved to be a more useful indicator during the recent high inflation episode. The 
threshold is set at +9% (based on the 75th percentile of the 1995-2022 sample) (for more 
details, see Annex 2). It is complemented by two new auxiliary indicators: the standardised 
house  price-to-income  ratio,10  to  reflect  medium-term  developments,  and  an  indicator 
reflecting dynamics in housing supply. The building permits indicator (square metres per 
1000 inhabitants) is useful here as it is provided by ESTAT11 and has good data coverage 
and timeliness properties. The previous  auxiliary  indicator on residential  construction  is 
dropped as on the basis that it provides less value added. 

•  The employment and social indicators block is streamlined, from 4 headline and 9 (+5) 
auxiliary indicators to 2 headline and 8 auxiliary indicators, bringing the overall number of 
indicators  more  in  line  with  other  blocks.  The  unemployment  rate  and  the  labour  force 
participation rate are maintained as headline indicators with the same thresholds as before, 
and annual data are considered for the unemployment rate rather than its 3-year average to 
improve the forward-looking character of the variable. Indicators that were so far present 
in  multiple  transformations  are  de-duplicated.  In  view  of  ongoing  demographic 
developments, employment is measured through the employment rate instead of in persons. 
The  age  group  of  the  NEET  (young  people  neither  in  employment  nor  in  education  or 
training)  rate  is  expanded  from  Y15-24  to  Y15-29  in  line  with  the  definition  of  the 
corresponding headline indicator in the Social Scoreboard.  

8  Note  that  the  relevant  sample  of banks for  use  in  the  MIP  scoreboard  includes  foreign-owned branches  and 
subsidiaries operating on the territory of the Member State.  
9 Greece does not provide official data on house prices to Eurostat. 
10 The standardised house price-to-income ratio is defined as the ratio of the current house price-to-income ratio 
relative to the long-term average house price-to-income ratio, calculated over the period 2000 to the most recent 
data available and expressed as an index. If the index equals 100, it means the current house price-to-income ratio 
is equal to its long term average. House prices are provided by  Eurostat, and income is calculated as adjusted 
gross disposable household income (B7G) per head of population based on Eurostat data. 
11 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/sts_cobp_a__custom_11773473/default/table?lang=en  

3 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 1: Revisions of the scoreboard 

Variable 

Unit 

Threshold 

Source 

Block 1: External sector 
Current account balance 
Net International Investment Position (NIIP) 
NIIP excluding non-defaultable instruments 
(NENDI)* 
Net lending / borrowing* (Current plus capital 
account) 
Net trade balance of energy products* 

Block 2: Competitiveness 
Real effective exchange rate, 42 trading partners 
HICP deflator  

Export performance against advanced 
economies 
Nominal unit labour cost index (per hour 
worked) (2015=100) 
Real GDP per capita* 
Gross fixed capital formation* 
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D* 

% GDP, 3y avg. 
% GDP 
% GDP 

-4/+6% 
-35%  
- 

Eurostat BoP/NA 
Eurostat BoP/NA 
Eurostat BoP/NA 

% GDP 

% GDP 

- 

- 

Eurostat BoP/NA 

Eurostat Internat. 
trade stat./NA 

3y change (%) 

3y change (%) 

3y change (%) 

±3% (EA); 
±10% (non-EA) 
-3% 

9% (EA); 12% 
(non-EA) 

DG ECFIN 

Eurostat BoP 

Eurostat NA 

EUR 
% GDP 
% GDP 

Export market share (% world exports)*  

3y change (%) 

Labour productivity (per hour worked)* 
Core inflation differential vis-à-vis EA* 

1y change (%) 
pps 

Block 3: Public and private debt 
General government gross debt 

Household (+NPISH) debt - consolidated 

NFC debt - consolidated 

% GDP 

% GDP 

% GDP 

Household (+NPISH) debt – consolidated* 

% GDHI 

Private credit flows 
Household (+NPISH) credit flow - consolidated  % debt stock (t-1) 

NFC credit flow - consolidated, excl. FDI 

Block 4: Financial sector 
Gross non-performing loans, domestic and 
foreign entities* 
Tier-1 capital ratio of banking sector* 

Return on equity of banking sector* 

% debt stock (t-1), 
excl. FDI 

% gross loans 

% risk-weighted 
assets 
% 

- 

- 
- 

60% 

55%  

85%  

- 

14% 

13% 

- 

- 

Eurostat NA 
Eurostat NA  
Eurostat Business 
Statistics/NA 
Eurostat/IMF 
BoP  
Eurostat NA  
Eurostat HICP 

Eurostat 
EDP/GFS 
Eurostat NA 
(FA) 
Eurostat NA 
(FA) 
Eurostat NA 
(FA) 

Eurostat NA 
(FA) 
Eurostat NA 
(FA)/BoP 

ECB CBD 

ECB CBD 

ECB CBD 

4 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Block 5: Housing market  
House price index, nominal 

1y % change 

+9% 

Standardised house price-to-income ratio*  

Building permits* 

Block 6: Employment and social indicators 
Unemployment rate 

Labour force participation rate 

Long-term unemployment rate* 

Youth unemployment rate* 

Employment rate* 
Young people neither in employment nor in 
education or training* 
People at risk of poverty or social exclusion* 

Peope at risk of poverty* 

Severely materially and socially deprived 
people * 
People living in households with very low work 
intensity* 

%  long term avg 
(2000-current) 
m² per 1000 inh 

% labour force 
Y15-74 
3y change pps (% 
pop Y15-64) 
% labour force 
Y15-74 
% labour force 
Y15-24 
% pop Y20-64 
%  pop Y15-29 

% pop 

% pop 

% pop 

% pop Y0-64 

Eurostat Real 
estate statistics 
Eurostat Real 
estate stats/NA 
Eurostat STS 

- 

- 

10% 

Eurostat EU-LFS 

-0.2 pps 

Eurostat EU-LFS 

Eurostat EU-LFS 

Eurostat EU-LFS 

Eurostat EU-LFS 
Eurostat EU-LFS 

Eurostat EU-
SILC 
Eurostat EU-
SILC 
Eurostat EU-
SILC 
Eurostat EU-
SILC 

Notes: *: auxiliary indicators; changes compared to the existing scoreboard are marked in red and italic.  

The revised scoreboard is more compact and better balanced between blocks. Indeed, as 
presented in Table 2, the revised scoreboard reduces the overall number of headline indicators 
from 14 to 13 and the overall number of auxiliary indicators from 28(+5) to 23. Moreover, it 
implies streamlining particularly for those blocks that were initially the most voluminous ones 
(Block 6 and Block 2). 

Table 2 : Number of headline and auxiliary indicators by thematic block 

Block 1: External sector 
Block 2: Competitiveness 
Block 3: Public and private debt 
              Private credit flows 
Block 4: Financial sector 
Block 5: Housing market 
Block 6: Employment and social indicators 
Total number of indicators 

Previous composition 
2 HL, 5 AUX 
3 HL, 9 AUX 
2 HL, 1 AUX 
1 HL 
1 HL, 2 AUX 
1 HL, 2 AUX 
4 HL, 9 (+5) AUX 
14 HL, 28 (+5) AUX 

New composition 
2 HL, 3 AUX 
3 HL, 6 AUX 
3 HL, 1 AUX 
2 HL 
0 HL, 3 AUX 
1 HL, 2 AUX 
2 HL, 8 AUX 
13 HL, 23 AUX 

5 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3.  Test run of the new scoreboard based on 2022 data 

Annex 3 presents the revised scoreboard with data for 2022 and compares it to the last 
vintage of the  scoreboard, that was used for the 2024  MIP round. Annex 4 presents  an 
overview of indicator values in a broader historical context. The main observations for 2022 
data12 at the level of the headline indicators are: 

•  The narrowing of the REER thresholds would increase the number of flashes from 4 to 
11 in 2022, with new flashes for FI, FR, IE, NL, CY, MT, and SK. Flashing patterns would 
remain  somewhat  more  consistent  over  time,  instead  of  on-off  over  the  last  decade  for 
countries such as the Baltics, since the thresholds are somewhat tighter.  

•  The change in the headline indicator on export performance results in one additional flash 
for 2022. The group of flashing countries remains broadly stable (with AT and MT newly 
flashing and ES no longer flashing). The new comparator group reduces the volatility of 
the indicator as compared to the export market share indicator given the lower impact of 
terms of trade effects.  

•  The change in the NULC index from person-based to hours-based measurement results in 

NL no longer flashing. Over time, flashing patterns remain broadly the same.  

•  The sectoral split of private debt stocks results in 9 flashes on HH debt, 8 flashes on NFC 
debt in 2022 – as compared to 10 flashes on private debt in 2022 in the old scoreboard. All 
countries that flashed on private debt in 2022 are flashing on household debt (except IE), 
almost all are flashing on NFC debt (except PT and FI).  

•  The sectoral split of the private credit flows, the change in denominators (to debt stock in 
t-1), and the exclusion of FDI from the numerator and denominator of credit flows to NFCs 
leads to one flash for BG for the household sector and three flashes for IE, LT, and HU for 
NFC credit flows in 2022; while the old scoreboard would have had none.13  

•  The change from the real to the nominal house price index increases the number of flashes 
from  1  (HU)  to  16  in  2022.  In  previous  years  with  more  usual  inflation  rates,  the  old 
indicator was flashing somewhat more often than the new indicator, but overall patterns 
remain relatively similar.  

•  The change in the unemployment indicator from 3y averages to annual data is not very 
consequential. The pattern of the flashes remains very similar; with the exact same flashes 
for 2022 in the old and the revised version of the scoreboard. 

12 2022 observations are considered here as for many variables, as 2023 data were not yet available or stable at 
the time of writing this note. 
13 Because of the separation into the household and corporate sectors, the new scoreboard is more sensitive to 
private sector credit flows and debt stocks. The thresholds are based on quartiles of the indicator distributions over 
a time period that includes the period prior to the financial crisis, when flows were higher and stocks lower, which 
mechanically results into a higher number of stock than flow flashes for the current period. 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Annex 1.  Headline and auxiliary indicators by thematic block, 2024 MIP scoreboard 

Table A1. Overview of scoreboard indicators 

Variable 

Unit 

Threshold 

Block 1: External sector 
Current account balance 
Net International Investment Position (NIIP) 
NIIP excluding non-defaultable instruments (NENDI)* 
Net lending / borrowing* (Current plus capital account) 
FDI in the reporting country – flows* 
FDI in the reporting country – stocks* 
Net trade balance of energy products* 

Block 2: Competitiveness 
Real effective exchange rate, 42 trading partners HICP deflator  

Export market share - % of world exports 
Nominal unit labour cost index (2015=100) 

Real GDP * 
Gross fixed capital formation * 
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D * 
Real effective exchange rate – euro area trading partners * 
Export performance against advanced economies*  
Export market share in volume *  
Terms of trade * 
Labour productivity * 
Unit labour cost performance relative to EA * 

Block 3: Public and private debt 
General government gross debt 
Private sector credit flow - consolidated 
Private sector debt - consolidated 
Household debt – consolidated * 

Block 4: Financial sector 
Total financial sector liabilities, non-consolidated  
Gross non-performing loans, domestic and foreign entities* 
Consolidated banking leverage, domestic and foreign entities* 

Block 5: Housing market 
House price index, deflated 
House price index, nominal * 
Residential construction * 

% GDP, 3y avg 
% GDP 
% GDP 
% GDP 
% GDP 
% GDP 
% GDP 

3y change (%) 

5y change (%) 
3y change (%) 

1y change (%) 
% GDP 
% GDP 
3y change (%) 
5y change (%) 
1y change (%) 
5y change (%) 
1y change (%) 
10y change (%) 

% GDP 
% GDP 
% GDP 
% GDP 

1y change (%) 
% gross loans 
Total assets / total 
equity 

1y % change 
3y % change 
% of GDP 

-4/+6% of GDP 
-35% of GDP 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

+/-5% (EA); +/-
11% (non-EA) 
-6% 
9% (EA); 12% 
(non-EA) 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

60% 
14% 
133% 
- 

16.5% 
- 
- 

+6% 
- 
- 

7 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10% 

-0.2 pps 

+0.5 pps 

+2 pps 

Block 6: Employment and social indicators 
Unemployment rate 

Activity rate 

Long term unemployment rate 

Youth unemployment rate 

Employment* 
Activity rate* 
Long-term unemployment rate* 
Youth unemployment rate* 
Young people neither in employment nor in education or 
training* 
Young people neither in employment nor in education or 
training* 
People at risk of poverty or social exclusion* 
People at risk of poverty or social exclusion* 

People at risk of poverty after social transfers* 
People at risk of poverty after social transfers* 

Severely materially and socially deprived people* 
Severely materially and socially deprived people* 

People living in households with very low work intensity* 
People living in households with very low work intensity* 

*: Auxiliary indicators 

3y avg (% active pop 
Y15-74) 
3y change pps (% 
Y15-64) 
3y change pps (% 
active pop Y15-74) 
3y change pps (% 
active pop Y15-24) 
1y change persons 
% pop Y15-64 
% active pop Y15-74 
% active pop Y15-24 
3y change pps  
(% pop Y15-24) 
%  pop Y15-24 

% pop 
3y change pps  
(% pop) 
% pop 
3y change pps  
(% pop) 
% pop 
3y change pps  
(% pop) 
% pop Y0-64 
3y change pps  
(% pop Y0-64) 

8 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Annex 2.  Calculations underlying threshold choices 

The MIP scoreboard includes indicative thresholds for the headline indicators, to serve 
as alert levels.14 Regulation 1176/2011 provides for the indicators to have upper and lower 
alert  thresholds  unless  inappropriate,  which  are  differentiated  for  euro  and  non-euro  area 
Member States if justified by specific features of the monetary union and relevant economic 
circumstances (Art. 4 § 4). The crossing of one or more indicative thresholds nonetheless need 
not imply that macroeconomic imbalances are emerging, as economic policy-making should 
take into account interlinks between macroeconomic variables (Recital 4). 

In most cases, the previous thresholds were chosen at the time of the first introduction of 
the headline indicators  based on their  distributional  characteristics,  with  lower (upper) 
thresholds being given by the lower (upper) quartile of the distribution of available past data.15 
The considered sample period length depended on data availability and varied by indicator. 
The cut-off date was set at 2007 and applied across the board.  

Since  the  scoreboard’s  introduction  in  2011,  no  adjustments  to  the  headline  indicator 
thresholds  had  been  made.  The  MIP  Regulation  requires  the  Commission  to  assess  the 
appropriateness of the thresholds on a regular basis. In June 2015, a LIME note discussed the 
need to update at set times the thresholds of MIP scoreboard headline indicators.16 While there 
was broad support at the time for the thresholds to remain stable, it was also acknowledged that 
thresholds  may  need  to  be  updated  over  time,  e.g.  in  light  of  significant  data  revisions  or 
changes in accounting standards that affect the distribution of the indicators and their quartiles; 
the progressive availability of larger sample sizes; or if certain indicators show a trend over 
time (rather than being mean-reverting). While the thresholds were calculated using data until 
2007, there are now many more years of data available. 

In the context of the 2024 MIP scoreboard review, thresholds of headline indicators were 
reviewed on a case-by-case basis. The review considered in particular whether there was a 
need to update the thresholds to take into account the statistical distribution of the longer time 
series available for most indicators, but also whether there was a need for a more symmetric 
approach  to  the  thresholds  for  certain  indicators.  At  the  same  time,  it  was  considered  that 
changes should only be made where there was a strong justification for doing so, in the interest 
of stability.  

The outcome of this review was that thresholds would be updated for the HICP-based 
REERs. New thresholds had to be determined for newly introduced headline indicators (export 
performance against advanced economies, household  debt,  NFC debt,  household  (+NPISH) 
credit flows,  NFC credit flows, and the nominal  house price index).  In spite of definitional 
changes in the NULC index and the unemployment rate, no changes in the indicator thresholds 
were considered necessary as the definitional change did not have a major impact on the 75th 
percentile of the data. 

14 See Regulation No 1176/2011, Article 4. 
15 Exceptions concern: the upper threshold of the current account, which was set based on political considerations, 
the upper threshold for house price growth, and the upper threshold for public debt, which was set at 60% in line 
with the Stability and Growth Pact Treaty reference value of 60% GDP.  
16  See  Discussion  Note  for  the  attention  of  LIME:  Broad  principles  for  updating  the  thresholds  of  the  MIP 
scoreboard indicators of 17 June 2015. 

9 

 
 
 
 
 
 
For the HICP-based REER, the consideration of more recent data would suggest marginally 
tighter thresholds than currently included in the scoreboard. For the case of euro area countries, 
the lower quartile of that  data distribution points to  -2.2%,  and the upper quartile comes at 
+3.9% (time period 1995-2022, EA20, see Table A2), which compares with +/- 5% currently 
in  the  scoreboard.  These  suggested  thresholds  could  be  tightened  to  +/-3%  for  euro  area 
members.  For  non-euro  area  countries,  the  original  thresholds  were  set  as  one  standard 
deviation away from the lower and upper thresholds of the euro area thresholds. Altogether, 
that informed the choice of +/-11% for non-euro area countries. Following the recalculation, 
new figures emerge: -9.1% for the lower threshold and +10.8% for the upper threshold. In line 
with the approach set out above, this suggests the threshold could be tightened to +/-10% for 
non-euro area countries. A more marked revision of the threshold for this group of countries 
would not be justified as room has to be left for more heterogeneous economic circumstances, 
including some nominal exchange rate volatility as well as a tendency for real appreciation in 
catching-up economies.  

Table A2: Distributional characteristics of the HICP-based REER (3-year change) 

Source: Eurostat and European Commission services 

For nominal unit labour costs, measured as change over 3 years, and as of the 2025 cycle 
based on productivity per hour worked, the upper quartile of the data distribution would suggest 
a higher threshold than previously considered in the scoreboard for euro area countries (+11.3% 
on  the  basis  of  new  data  in  comparison  with  +9%  currently)  –  see  Table  A3.  That  could 
motivate an increase of the threshold to 10% or 11%, which could accommodate more volatile 
developments. As for non-euro area members, at the time of the original scoreboard design, 
the threshold for unit labour costs was based on the threshold for euro area countries, by adding 
3 percentage points to it. By that token, this threshold would have to be changed too (from 12% 
currently)  if  the  threshold  for  euro  area  members  would  be  adjusted.  However,  taking  into 
account  the  principle  of  stability  in  thresholds  outlined  above,  it  was  decided  to  leave  the 
thresholds unchanged. Indeed, as set earlier, revisions of the thresholds should preferably not 
be driven by exceptional periods over which indicators do not show sustainable developments, 
which  was  the  case  of  cost  pressures  over  the  last  years,  in  particular  since  the  COVID-19 
pandemic. Moreover, the newer values could mean figures for unit labour costs more difficult 
to reconcile with the inflation target for the case of euro area members and for other countries 
too. Also, a higher threshold could be perceived as a lower concern about more divergent price 
developments, especially within the euro area, which is undesirable.  

10 

PeriodCoverageEU27(until 2013)EU28EU27(since 2020)EA17EA20EU27(until 2013)EU28EU27(since 2020)EA17EA20N270280270170200675700675425500mean4.94.84.92.33.32.22.12.21.01.6sd10.410.210.27.18.98.28.07.95.76.9P10-5.4-5.3-5.3-5.6-5.6-5.4-5.3-5.0-5.0-5.0P25-2.0-1.9-1.8-2.3-2.1-2.5-2.4-2.4-2.4-2.2P502.92.72.80.81.80.50.50.50.10.4P759.39.09.16.56.55.04.94.93.43.9P9018.118.118.110.411.410.910.710.67.17.81995-20071995-2022 
 
 
 
Table A3: Distributional characteristics of ULC/hour (3-year change) 

Note: ULC are based on productivity per hour worked 
Source: Eurostat and European Commission services 

For export performance against advanced economies  (3-year % change),  a new headline 
indicator, the threshold was set at -3%, i.e. a loss of 3% over a period of 3 years, in line with 
the lower quartile of the data distribution (time period 1995-2022, EU27, see Table A4)17. 

Table A4: Distributional characteristics of the export performance against advanced economies (3-year change) 

Source: Eurostat and European Commission services 

For  household  debt  (including  NPISH)  and  NFC  debt,  both  new  headline  indicators  and 
expressed as a % of GDP, the new thresholds were set at 55% and 85% respectively, in line 
with the upper quartile of the data distribution of the 1995-2007 sample (see Table A5).  

Table A5: Distributional characteristics of private sector debt indicators18 

Variable 

Transf. 
Period 

Coverage 

N 
Mean 
SD 
P10 
P25 
P50 
P75 
P90 

Private 
sector debt 
% GDP 
1995-2007 

Private 
sector debt 
% GDP 
1995-2022 

EU27  
(-2013) 
188 
118.5 
51.7 
54.7 
82.9 
115.2 
142.9 
187.8 

EU27  
(2020-) 
571 
135.3 
66.4 
64.8 
84.4 
122.0 
166.9 
229.5 

Household debt 

Household debt 

NFC debt 

NFC debt 

% GDP 
1995-2007 

% GDP 
1995-2022 

EU27  
(-2013) 
351 
37.3 
28.7 
3.6 
12.0 
34.6 
53.2 
79.8 

EU27  
(2020-) 
756 
45.6 
29.8 
8.7 
23.4 
40.8 
61.2 
88.3 

% GDP 
1995-
2007 
EU27  
(-2013) 
188 
73.2 
31.5 
41.1 
54.5 
68.5 
86.4 
118.0 

% GDP 
1995-2022 

EU27  
(2020-) 
571 
84.8 
45.8 
41.8 
53.9 
74.3 
100.5 
137.1 

Source: Eurostat and European Commission services 

17  Data  cover  OECD  countries  and  also  all  EU  countries  that  are  not  OECD  members,  for  the  latter  data  are 
available only since 2004. Between 1995 and 2004, data are available for only some of those EU countries that 
are not part of OECD.  
18 See also, for more details, the Note for the attention of the LIME Working Group meeting on 29 November 
2023: The 2024 MIP Scoreboard Review: The Thresholds of the MIP Scoreboard Indicators 

11 

PeriodCoverageEU27 (until 2013)EU28EU27 (since 2020)EA17EA20EU27 (until 2013)EU28EU27 (since 2020)EA17EA20N269279279174204659684684429504mean32.031.331.37.48.617.317.017.06.17.1sd194.7191.2191.26.49.6125.2122.9122.97.09.4P100.60.70.70.70.6-0.3-0.6-0.6-1.0-1.4P252.72.82.82.52.52.62.62.62.02.0P507.17.27.26.86.96.76.86.85.96.2P7513.113.113.111.211.512.312.212.210.011.3P9027.127.627.614.718.718.818.918.913.915.41995-20071995-2022PeriodCoverageEU27(until 2013)EU28EU27(since 2020)EA17EA20EU27(until 2013)EU28EU27(since 2020)EA17EA20N2627261720428444431272320mean12.412.112.85.58.54.34.24.52.53.7sd17.016.716.711.914.412.612.512.511.712.4P10-4.1-3.9-3.0-4.9-3.7-8.3-8.7-8.3-9.1-9.1P25-1.5-1.2-0.4-2.6-2.0-3.2-3.3-3.1-4.0-3.7P503.23.44.30.02.51.51.51.90.00.0P7526.726.626.712.518.010.010.010.07.09.1P9032.732.632.723.829.020.520.220.417.820.01995-20071995-2022 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The main reason not to extend the longer time series (until 2022) is that this would include debt 
ratio peaks in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis, and the 
generally smaller uptick of debt ratios in 2020. As a result, the 75th percentile value would be 
considerably higher than for a sample running until 2007. Nevertheless, if present deleveraging 
dynamics  continue,  the  mean  and  the  percentiles  of  private  debt  would  plausibly  start 
decreasing  at  some  point  in  time.  In  the  interest  of  consistency  and  stability,  it  may  not  be 
advisable to raise the threshold now and then reduce it later again. This is in line with the 2015 
guidelines  for  the  revision  of  thresholds,  which  call  for  adjustments  only  in  the  case  of  a 
consistent trend in the same direction for most countries. 

For household credit flows (including NPISH and expressed as a proportion of the household 
debt stock in the previous year), a new headline indicator, the threshold was set at 14%, in line 
with the upper quartile of the data distribution (time period 1996-2022, EU27, see Table A6). 

Table A6. Household sector credit flow (% household debt in t-1) - distributional characteristics 

Source: Eurostat nasa_10_f_tr & nasa_10_f_bs, and European Commission calculations 

For NFC credit flows (expressed as a proportion of the NFC debt stock in the previous year 
and excluding FDI from the numerator as well as the denominator), a new headline indicator, 
the threshold was set  at  13%, in line with the 75th percentile of the distribution of the NFC 
credit flow variable before excluding FDI (time period 1996-2022, see Table A7). The reason 
is that FDI data are not available for a long time period and an inspection of more recent data 
indicated that the inclusion of FDI did not seem to affect the 75th percentile to a major extent.  

Table A7. NFC sector credit flow (different denominators) - distributional characteristics 1996-2022 vs 2013-
2022 

Source: Eurostat nasa_10_f_tr & nasa_10_f_bs, and European Commission calculations. 
Note: FDI debt flows of NFC are by definition represented by FDI transactions of the private sector (Eurostat 
bop_c6_q/A.MIO_NAC.FA__D__FL.S1V.S1.LIAB.WRL_REST.). The NFC stock FDI debt liabilities is thus 
represented by the FDI stock of the private sector 
(bop_iip6_q/A.MIO_NAC.FA__D__FL.S1V.S1.L_LE.WRL_REST.).  

12 

PeriodCoverageEU27(until 2013)EU28EU27(since 2020)EA17EA20EU27(until 2013)EU28EU27(since 2020)EA17EA20N378392378238280726753729459540mean31.931.832.615.518.718.017.918.39.310.9sd210.0206.3210.017.521.1152.2149.5152.014.417.4P102.72.82.72.72.5-1.2-1.3-1.4-1.2-1.8P257.07.17.06.16.52.02.01.91.81.6P5012.212.512.911.312.26.46.46.45.86.0P7525.926.227.120.223.213.113.513.911.813.1P9054.454.055.030.945.131.632.032.423.228.11996-20091996-2022 
 
 
 
 
 
 
For the nominal house price index, measured as a 1-year change, a new headline indicator, 
the threshold was set at 9%, in line with the upper quartile of the data distribution (time period 
1995-2022, EU27, see Table A8).  

Table A8. House price index (1-year % change) – distributional characteristics 

Source: Eurostat prc_hpi_a and European Commission calculations 

As the transformation of the unemployment rate changed from 3-year average to annual data, 
the need to adjust its threshold was also considered. However, changing the transformation, 
accounting for data revisions, longer time series availability, and changes in the composition 
of the EU did not imply material changes to the 75th percentile: it is only slightly higher than 
the  existing  threshold  (10%),  at  10.7%  (see  Table  A9).  In  the  interest  of  stability,  it  was 
therefore decided that the threshold could be maintained. 

Table A9: Distributional characteristics of employment and social indicators 

Variable 

Transf. 

Period 
Coverage 

N 
Mean 
SD 
P10 
P25 
P50 
P75 
P90 

Unemploy-
ment rate 
3y avg (% 
active pop Y15-
74) 
1994-2007 
EU27  
(-2013) 
677 
7.8 
4.2 
2.7 
4.8 
7.3 
9.7 
13.8 

Unemploy-
ment rate 
3y avg (% 
active pop Y15-
74) 
1970-2022 
EU27  
(2020-) 
1053 
8.2 
4.3 
3.3 
5.3 
7.6 
10.1 
14.3 

Unemploy-
ment rate 
% active pop 
Y15-74 

1970-2022 
EU27  
(2020-) 
770 
8.8 
4.3 
4.5 
5.9 
7.9 
10.7 
14.6 

Source: Eurostat and European Commission services 

13 

PeriodCoverageEU27(until 2013)EU28EU27(since 2020)EA17EA20EU27(until 2013)EU28EU27(since 2020)EA17EA20N233240240171193622644644426493mean13.313.113.18.09.06.86.76.74.85.2sd53.252.452.47.18.833.432.932.97.38.5P100.40.40.40.40.4-2.8-3.0-3.0-2.1-2.7P253.63.63.63.43.50.90.90.90.90.9P507.77.77.77.07.25.25.15.14.85.1P7512.612.512.511.511.99.09.09.08.38.7P9020.720.720.716.417.614.314.314.313.514.01995-20071995-2022 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Annex 3.  Test-run of the revised scoreboard 

The tables presented in this Annex have been compiled with the data available at the end of August 2024 for the purpose of testing; they do not represent official 
scoreboard data. The official scoreboard data are presented in SWD(2024) 701 accompanying the 2025 Alert Mechanism Report. 

1.  Previous MIP scoreboard 

14 

 
 
 
 
The tables presented in this Annex have been compiled with the data available at the end of August 2024 for the purpose of testing and discussion; they do not 
represent official scoreboard data. The official scoreboard data are presented in SWD(2024) 701 accompanying the 2025 Alert Mechanism Report. 

15 

Current account balance - % of GDP (3 year average)Net international investment position (% of GDP)Real effective exchange rate - 42 trading partners, HICP deflator (3 years % change)Export market share - % of world exports(5 years % change)Nominal unit labour cost index (2010=100)(3 years % change)House price index (2010=100), deflated (1 year % change) Private sector credit flow, consolidated (% of GDP)Private sector debt, consolidated (% of GDP)General government gross debt (% of GDP)Unemployment rate (3 year average)Total financial sector liabilities, non-consolidated(1 year % change)Activity rate - % of total population aged 15-64(3 years change in p.p.)Long-term unemployment rate - % of active population aged 15-74(3 years change in p.p.)Youth unemployment rate - % of active population aged 15-24(3 years change in p.p)Thresholds-4/6%-35%±5% (EA)±11% (Non-EA)-6%9% (EA) 12% (Non-EA)6%14%133%60%10%16.5%-0.2%0.5%2%BE-0.2   65.20.0-3.313.3-2.82.2156.5105.2   5.8   0.7   2.1   0.1   0.2   BG-1.1   -7.68.516.127.42.75.872.723.1   4.6   2.8 fc1.8   -0.4   -5.3   CZ-2.4   -13.224.20.715.8-10.02.173.744.0   2.5   0.2 fc0.7   0.2   0.3   DK11.1   58.9-1.012.65.4-6.44.3196.629.3   4.9   0.6   1.8   -0.4   -0.1   DE5.8   70.41.9-8.810.6-13.9-0.2111.463.6   3.3   -1.0 fc2.4   -0.1   -2.1   EE-2.6   -21.615.714.432.8-3.03.792.619.6   6.1   4.2 fc2.0   0.1   -1.0   IE11.5   -105.9-1.226.15.7-3.3-1.8147.643.7   5.0   0.3 fc6.7   -0.3   -5.1   EL-7.8   -140.5-1.25.81.18.42.096.4161.9   12.8   -1.7 fc4.2   -4.3   -11.3   ES1.3   -52.8-0.80.57.7-0.2-2.2111.6107.7   13.4   0.4   2.3   -0.7   -9.6   FR-0.8   -29.4-1.8-6.411.3-6.31.8155.4110.6   7.5   3.6   1.9   -0.1   -4.3   HR-0.2   -21.64.318.912.53.73.973.363.0   6.9   1.7 fc3.0   -0.1   -2.1   IT0.4   7.40.7-1.45.0-3.7-0.897.9137.3   8.4   -2.4 fc3.2   -0.9   -7.1   CY-8.7   -96.40.322.51.5-0.22.3198.377.3   6.8   0.1 fc3.2   -0.2   -1.3   LV-4.2   -24.610.87.725.4-3.91.152.543.6   7.0   1.1 fc-1.4   -0.6   -2.6   LT-0.8   1.312.823.236.51.14.352.338.3   6.7   5.6 fc0.3   -0.2   -5.8   LU7.4   33.8-1.54.220.8-12.20.1327.525.7   5.0   0.5 fc1.9   0.0   -4.4   HU-4.1   -46.610.24.534.0-8.41.972.373.5   3.9   0.0 fc2.9   0.3   0.3   MT1.0   71.4-0.519.5-1.4-0.45.7120.350.4   3.5   0.2 fc4.7   -0.6   -2.4   NL10.5   71.82.40.19.4-10.01.7191.746.5   3.8   -0.9 fc2.1   -0.2   -2.4   AT1.3   16.61.8-0.913.2-9.90.1114.477.8   5.4   -0.2 fc1.8   -0.6   -1.3   PL-0.7   -31.49.223.222.0-1.80.957.049.6   3.0   10.9   4.3   0.2   0.6   PT-0.2   -72.5-1.45.28.63.00.9130.399.1   6.5   -1.9   3.8   0.2   -2.2   RO-7.8   -39.86.710.726.7-5.92.040.448.8   5.6   1.4 fc2.7   0.4   0.2   SI2.3   3.71.12.018.8-0.20.460.269.2   4.2   2.6 fc1.4   -0.5   -4.4   SK-4.3   -53.97.5-1.916.5-9.22.385.556.0   6.2   2.9   2.0   0.1   -0.6   FI-1.2   5.2-1.8-5.513.8-9.5-2.1138.675.8   7.2   -4.3 fc2.6   0.1   -4.8   SE6.4   33.7-7.53.88.5-10.92.4202.931.2   8.0   -0.1 fc1.9   -0.2   -1.4   Year 2023External imbalances and competitivenessInternal imbalancesEmployment indicators1 
 
 
 
 
2.  Revised MIP scoreboard 

The tables presented in this Annex have been compiled with the data available at the end of August 2024 for the purpose of testing and discussion; they do not 
represent official scoreboard data. The official scoreboard data are presented in SWD(2024) 701 accompanying the 2025 Alert Mechanism Report. 

Note: The debt stock in the denominator of the NFC credit flow headline variable excludes foreign direct investment (FDI) and is thus different from the debt stock in the NFC debt stock headline 
variable. 

16 

Current account balance - % of GDP (3 year average)Net international investment position (% of GDP)Real effective exchange rate - 42 trading partners, HICP deflator (3 years % change)Export performance against advanced economies(3 years % change)Nominal unit labour cost index  (per hour worked)(2010=100)(3 years % change)House price index (2010=100),  (1 year % change) Household (+NPISH) debt, consolidated (% of GDP)Household credit flow(% debt stock t-1)NFC debt, consolidated (% of GDP)NFC credit flow, cons., excl. FDI(% debt stock t-1, excl. FDI)General government gross debt (% of GDP)Unemployment rate (% labour force Y15-74 )Labour force participation rate - % total population aged 15-64(3 years change in p.p.)Thresholds-4/6%-35%±3% (EA)±10% (Non-EA)-3%9% (EA) 12% (Non-EA)9%55%14%85%13%60%10%-0.2%BE0.657.71.73.49.65.559.95.4101.44.8104.35.61.4BG-1.0-12.95.616.023.113.822.515.052.16.422.64.20.6CZ-1.9-18.713.6-3.715.116.932.74.944.610.444.22.20.5DK10.258.2-1.312.97.8-0.584.81.5103.37.829.84.51.3DE6.069.5-0.5-6.66.55.355.04.163.510.066.13.11.4EE-2.6-20.28.515.816.922.236.810.556.711.018.55.62.0IE6.0-116.8-4.517.0-11.812.325.8-0.4121.633.344.44.53.6EL-7.9-143.5-2.67.53.711.945.3-2.155.85.1172.712.50.9ES0.7-60.0-0.8-2.79.87.452.30.571.2-1.5111.613.00.2FR-1.1-23.8-3.8-7.010.66.366.25.097.44.6111.97.31.0HR-0.9-25.3-0.89.811.314.930.65.747.38.667.87.03.4IT1.64.7-1.9-3.14.83.840.63.664.2-0.6140.58.1-0.2CY-8.0-96.2-3.114.5-1.72.771.7-1.8141.7-2.885.66.82.2LV-1.9-26.85.317.316.913.817.96.135.36.741.86.9-0.5LT1.0-7.09.419.027.319.021.811.529.623.738.16.00.6LU8.047.0-0.6-1.913.09.666.87.5259.424.74.61.5HU-4.5-52.1-7.9-2.123.722.318.75.863.013.774.13.62.5MT0.483.3-3.2-3.26.96.755.07.470.42.151.63.54.5NL8.875.23.13.08.213.392.42.9117.75.850.13.51.3AT1.617.60.0-3.510.211.648.72.973.25.378.44.80.5PL-0.4-33.3-0.212.116.411.826.4-3.437.011.249.22.93.5PT-1.0-83.6-2.9-1.010.212.660.93.380.91.5112.46.21.3RO-7.1-40.82.54.917.87.214.04.629.712.947.55.63.5SI3.2-1.5-1.41.714.314.825.97.640.210.872.54.01.6SK-3.6-60.93.8-3.212.013.747.19.646.29.657.76.11.4FI-0.5-2.2-3.3-2.39.11.265.63.079.6-3.673.56.82.5SE6.131.6-1.40.17.23.689.13.9122.47.133.27.50.8Year 2022External imbalances and competitivenessInternal imbalancesEmployment and social indicators 
 
 
 
The tables presented in this Annex have been compiled with the data available at the end of August 2024 for the purpose of testing and discussion; they do not 
represent official scoreboard data. The official scoreboard data are presented in SWD(2024) 701 accompanying the 2025 Alert Mechanism Report. 

Note: The debt stock in the denominator of the NFC credit flow headline variable excludes foreign direct investment (FDI) and is thus different from the debt stock in the NFC debt stock headline 
variable. 

17 

Current account balance - % of GDP (3 year average)Net international investment position (% of GDP)Real effective exchange rate - 42 trading partners, HICP deflator (3 years % change)Export performance against advanced economies(3 years % change)Nominal unit labour cost index  (per hour worked)(2010=100)(3 years % change)House price index (2010=100),  (1 year % change) Household (+NPISH) debt, consolidated (% of GDP)Household credit flow(% debt stock t-1)NFC debt, consolidated (% of GDP)NFC credit flow, cons., excl. FDI(% debt stock t-1, excl. FDI)General government gross debt (% of GDP)Unemployment rate (% labour force Y15-74 )Labour force participation rate - % total population aged 15-64(3 years change in p.p.)Thresholds-4/6%-35%±3% (EA)±10% (Non-EA)-3%9% (EA) 12% (Non-EA)9%55%14%85%13%60%10%-0.2%BE-0.2   65.20.0-5.72.558.12.398.44.7105.25.52.1   BG-1.1   -7.68.514.626.59.923.749.023.14.31.8   CZ-2.4   -13.224.20.016.5-1.731.841.944.02.60.7   DK11.1   58.9-1.03.75.7-3.689.00.4107.63.829.35.11.8   DE5.8   70.41.9-9.310.3-8.452.10.759.30.863.63.12.4   EE-2.6   -21.615.77.430.65.937.355.319.66.42.0   IE11.5   -105.9-1.2-6.46.43.127.7119.943.74.36.7   EL-7.8   -140.5-1.231.70.313.441.8-1.054.64.8161.911.14.2   ES1.3   -52.8-0.814.18.44.046.9-2.264.7-2.6107.712.22.3   FR-0.8   -29.4-1.82.110.8-0.463.11.392.42.9110.67.31.9   HR-0.2   -21.64.336.711.929.99.543.57.363.06.13.0   IT0.4   7.40.73.55.81.337.860.1137.37.73.2   CY-8.7   -96.40.33.10.82.965.9132.377.36.13.2   LV-4.2   -24.610.8-2.525.83.817.734.843.66.5-1.4   LT-0.8   1.312.86.936.39.821.730.638.36.90.3   LU7.4   33.8-1.5-14.620.9-9.168.3259.225.75.21.9   HU-4.1   -46.610.21.433.75.616.855.573.54.12.9   MT1.0   71.4-0.51.40.25.352.667.750.43.14.7   NL10.5   71.82.4-2.88.6-1.986.7105.146.53.62.1   AT1.3   16.61.8-0.312.1-2.644.869.677.85.11.8   PL-0.7   -31.49.27.423.18.823.6-0.233.34.149.62.84.3   PT-0.2   -72.5-1.417.19.18.255.2-0.775.10.599.16.53.8   RO-7.8   -39.86.77.827.23.312.52.527.910.348.85.62.7   SI2.3   3.71.10.218.57.124.33.935.9-2.269.23.71.4   SK-4.3   -53.97.5-2.116.90.144.04.641.53.056.05.82.0   FI-1.2   5.2-1.8-7.913.9-5.663.774.875.87.22.6   SE6.4   33.7-7.5-2.410.7-5.384.6118.331.27.71.9   Year 2023External imbalances and competitivenessInternal imbalancesEmployment and social indicators 
 
 
 
Annex 4.  Additional tables on threshold flashes over time 

1.  HICP-deflated REERs, 3y % change, threshold +-3% for EA and +-10% for non-EA 

18 

 
 
 
 
 
 
2.  HICP-deflated REERs, 3y % change, threshold +-5% for EA and +-11% for non-EA 

19 

 
 
 
 
 
 
3.  Export performance against advanced economies, 3y % change, threshold -3% 

20 

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023AT3.34.12.3-9.4-9.8-11.7-2.7-2.2-3.0-2.4-2.95.22.02.8-2.5-3.5-0.3BE-3.5-1.63.7-2.2-3.5-8.1-3.0-3.3-7.7-4.3-2.56.0-0.42.27.33.4-5.7DE3.04.31.0-5.9-4.8-5.6-1.10.11.01.5-0.20.9-2.20.4-0.8-6.6-9.3ES-1.70.04.1-6.8-3.2-8.81.8-0.20.80.92.25.0-0.6-11.9-9.3-2.714.1FI3.07.4-5.8-17.5-22.6-17.5-9.5-11.1-13.4-12.4-2.67.99.04.71.2-2.3-7.9FR-7.2-3.8-1.1-7.1-7.6-10.0-0.3-0.81.0-1.0-2.2-0.5-2.5-7.0-7.2-7.02.1IE-2.7-5.016.11.5-1.6-20.0-9.29.758.158.545.212.419.944.933.117.0-6.4IT-2.6-2.4-6.7-14.3-11.6-9.6-3.9-3.2-3.9-3.2-2.51.6-1.5-4.3-3.3-3.13.5LU21.913.28.43.23.70.69.818.619.610.63.1-0.43.921.723.2-1.9-14.6NL-0.52.64.0-1.3-4.8-6.0-0.8-0.1-2.6-5.4-2.73.32.75.82.63.0-2.8PT0.16.51.4-7.9-4.5-7.06.13.63.7-0.73.59.16.8-7.6-8.2-1.017.1EL-1.07.54.0-12.3-19.3-16.4-6.30.5-5.6-9.8-6.710.715.1-12.6-1.77.531.7SI19.517.58.8-7.8-9.1-11.7-2.5-0.32.24.58.317.011.76.93.21.70.2CY-8.5-7.113.0-3.0-2.5-18.0-4.9-1.45.38.712.616.314.524.326.214.53.1MT14.938.340.625.75.1-9.20.03.912.813.316.64.215.915.612.6-3.21.4SK26.923.01.1-8.4-4.36.613.85.3-2.0-2.8-0.56.7-0.63.4-0.3-3.2-2.1EE32.121.27.20.914.724.521.73.1-6.7-5.8-4.78.55.69.819.215.87.4LV57.036.527.13.05.714.418.810.7-0.7-0.8-0.58.74.615.010.517.3-2.5LT29.532.68.612.06.330.129.55.1-11.3-14.31.819.824.122.421.419.06.9HR3.26.13.3-8.2-12.8-18.0-8.7-2.07.412.813.213.29.4-11.02.69.836.7BG24.628.49.7-1.83.86.318.93.53.43.39.513.69.02.78.516.014.6CZ27.322.115.65.60.6-1.9-1.30.30.04.12.76.82.42.8-1.6-3.70.0DK5.61.9-4.3-10.7-11.5-2.7-1.3-1.8-4.1-3.21.63.510.48.212.93.7HU18.918.610.7-5.0-10.3-15.0-9.1-4.43.53.42.03.82.63.9-0.8-2.11.4PL31.532.421.411.31.40.64.56.87.97.411.116.014.520.116.112.17.4RO55.760.244.420.611.85.919.516.220.311.19.316.19.47.75.24.97.8SE1.51.5-8.9-9.1-5.4-0.4-3.0-7.2-6.6-6.5-5.6-3.5-0.55.28.00.1-2.4 
 
 
 
 
 
4.  Export market share (% world exports, 5y change) threshold -6% 

21 

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023AT-11.5-2.26.32.03.911.71.31.6-4.5-6.1-12.6-12.5-21.8-18.6-15.9-9.3-3.12.12.60.94.8-4.1-5.3-0.9BE-5.7-13.9-6.7-11.0-9.0-11.6-7.7-15.6-13.2-13.5-13.7-5.31.5-1.5-2.68.83.5-2.5-3.3DE-3.3-11.6-2.93.50.86.010.12.72.7-4.6-6.8-8.1-9.3-16.8-13.2-9.7-3.31.95.53.1-0.61.5-5.7-12.1-8.8ES22.34.36.87.24.71.43.0-6.7-4.6-14.2-8.8-11.7-8.3-17.6-10.5-11.6-3.52.69.44.12.1-7.4-12.4-8.30.5FI-6.5-3.00.6-7.0-2.2-6.3-8.0-4.7-4.5-13.4-19.7-23.5-32.4-32.6-27.4-23.2-16.0-5.4-4.32.810.83.4-2.6-5.5FR-13.1-6.9-14.3-16.6-18.5-13.6-17.2-15.4-18.4-14.4-14.7-3.90.92.40.3-1.0-8.6-12.1-11.2-6.4IE44.159.065.128.113.98.8-9.6-12.0-16.71.8-6.3-10.3-18.4-10.8-14.837.658.270.778.172.651.640.031.326.1IT-26.1-16.8-10.3-12.4-6.8-5.0-12.7-8.8-16.0-18.0-19.1-19.2-25.8-20.6-15.7-9.9-4.30.5-0.4-2.7-3.2-6.9-8.7-1.4LU14.218.722.414.710.613.719.023.114.116.610.8-0.9-6.37.09.017.625.423.411.69.821.616.3-1.44.2NL-10.0-4.6-2.6-3.9-3.00.4-5.2-2.5-6.1-5.4-8.2-8.3-12.9-11.5-11.5-6.9-3.21.11.3-0.56.52.9-0.60.1PT-7.80.2-2.7-2.7-2.4-3.0-3.1-12.6-8.7-7.6-9.9-17.4-8.3-7.50.74.913.88.38.0-1.8-6.3-2.55.2EL-3.99.34.8-10.3-15.7-17.2-26.3-26.8-19.5-14.1-10.0-0.76.13.0-11.08.212.05.8SI-6.8-16.9-5.87.15.418.329.721.423.616.39.9-1.4-5.6-20.9-18.5-13.2-5.03.117.619.315.419.210.22.32.0CY-25.9-19.2-25.3-7.3-13.9-9.1-19.1-12.2-20.2-4.97.720.921.625.038.432.120.022.5MT10.945.837.817.612.1-0.9-12.68.917.624.018.731.123.110.42.719.5SK67.631.99.53.8-2.8-10.4-4.31.73.97.04.81.91.07.1-2.2-7.1-1.9EE76.614.217.01.2-1.715.260.544.253.937.016.39.524.46.89.720.37.1-0.91.6-0.21.415.718.216.414.4LV89.973.695.676.852.621.827.48.25.611.613.19.17.28.23.020.312.714.67.7LT1.2-5.4-2.011.657.184.757.841.551.726.613.923.023.910.819.76.3-1.63.42.816.038.236.228.023.2HR33.213.69.6-1.8-4.1-10.6-15.6-25.8-23.4-19.5-6.09.022.821.821.6-1.43.711.418.9BG30.451.740.742.745.235.119.08.011.1-1.1-0.45.412.99.119.912.814.815.310.914.816.1CZ11.0-1.513.130.022.354.875.157.758.453.127.211.77.4-4.6-10.0-6.4-2.12.58.210.84.57.7-2.0-7.40.7DK-5.9-4.1-1.1-10.6-13.8-17.8-18.0-16.0-8.7-3.11.4-0.21.510.55.411.712.6HU42.057.451.139.044.739.723.728.322.510.30.8-4.3-23.3-23.0-17.0-9.5-2.410.18.04.77.1-3.0-5.14.5PL49.955.451.134.423.914.40.1-2.61.15.113.523.422.021.733.223.315.923.2RO27.684.674.484.291.969.453.349.512.213.920.921.224.437.823.217.119.59.26.110.7SE8.3-7.6-11.9-8.8-8.8-6.5-5.2-1.41.3-6.8-15.9-12.8-12.2-19.6-16.9-10.1-10.5-9.6-5.8-6.9-3.22.80.6-3.23.8 
 
 
 
 
5.  NULC index on a per hour basis, 3y % change, threshold 9% for EA and 12% for non-EA 

22 

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023AT-0.30.00.41.11.42.61.61.51.32.35.08.87.75.63.36.06.96.15.54.75.46.012.810.010.212.1BE1.92.22.55.37.27.52.50.32.24.99.210.48.66.65.77.94.40.3-1.30.73.34.54.54.49.6DE7.53.61.8-0.40.22.11.81.62.11.70.3-3.4-3.2-0.19.58.25.51.95.76.95.64.54.35.47.49.56.16.510.3ES6.96.87.16.98.27.79.09.010.511.014.411.76.8-1.0-4.4-4.1-2.7-0.6-1.0-0.81.06.213.913.59.88.4FI-5.20.00.80.30.82.33.73.53.61.32.43.33.26.714.612.48.65.18.57.33.00.1-4.0-2.21.05.26.39.113.9FR1.30.71.70.60.11.43.86.16.95.54.84.55.25.97.87.45.54.14.54.22.21.41.41.90.64.24.510.610.8IE2.82.86.29.09.011.58.112.010.713.116.48.6-4.6-13.8-10.5-1.9-3.6-18.6-15.7-14.1-1.6-4.2-8.9-10.9-11.86.4IT6.22.1-1.14.06.712.511.710.37.47.48.010.88.45.32.02.72.51.70.80.31.22.64.93.44.85.8LU2.90.33.911.313.710.36.17.18.57.511.014.913.811.57.810.06.15.82.75.99.013.111.57.313.020.9NL2.74.26.87.610.39.26.82.40.62.86.011.37.75.52.84.73.80.10.40.83.96.113.27.68.28.6PT12.811.412.111.411.510.07.07.34.45.34.36.73.5-1.0-6.7-4.1-3.40.30.13.46.78.815.612.910.29.1EL21.918.811.56.612.814.314.511.57.57.46.714.415.813.26.9-2.6-7.5-11.9-6.8-3.9-1.3-1.35.13.33.70.3SI16.014.017.422.723.419.511.98.15.15.010.117.614.26.0-0.70.10.4-0.21.73.65.97.613.811.714.318.5CY6.84.52.56.47.214.814.117.67.15.21.09.07.57.81.5-1.4-6.5-10.7-9.6-5.2-1.14.55.41.9-1.70.8MT12.85.53.15.13.76.25.96.310.46.97.62.01.86.15.211.99.320.18.36.90.2SK25.120.521.118.318.411.410.79.47.85.96.911.97.84.5-1.03.22.82.23.97.911.614.614.911.912.016.9EE36.417.713.510.110.012.913.613.118.131.948.637.011.7-2.20.811.314.214.112.912.215.016.114.88.316.930.6LV27.08.46.33.7-2.41.68.528.242.870.678.336.5-2.2-17.7-6.19.412.717.115.414.714.217.118.211.516.925.8LT58.823.6-0.6-11.9-10.1-2.16.211.725.525.930.314.20.8-8.0-4.46.28.411.714.616.216.116.416.317.727.336.3HR29.930.726.011.08.48.212.18.55.06.89.315.410.85.7-1.7-4.3-5.8-5.7-4.8-3.30.83.413.74.511.3BG2622.01717.874.123.611.210.76.111.612.618.925.735.128.918.111.016.219.217.311.215.920.620.519.516.423.126.5CZ34.522.014.111.816.216.813.14.31.11.26.68.05.62.62.92.63.20.33.46.013.314.418.013.215.116.5DK-0.90.84.36.65.95.76.38.510.05.84.13.78.912.215.48.83.5-0.31.52.22.51.20.70.62.66.64.97.85.7HU62.442.233.132.031.226.119.315.09.79.812.011.45.22.76.26.75.50.74.88.411.410.412.311.723.733.7PL53.435.420.115.85.71.1-6.3-3.5-1.53.210.812.313.15.97.24.03.00.52.53.96.47.713.512.816.423.1RO453.6433.4332.4230.9140.577.727.554.335.030.732.022.428.5-1.22.80.49.74.112.318.029.123.921.215.817.827.2SE5.35.51.4-0.82.412.011.27.61.81.60.35.510.215.27.54.34.08.57.72.83.14.48.67.77.93.97.210.7 
 
 
 
 
 
6.  NULC index on a per person basis, 3y % change, threshold 9% for EA and 12% for non-EA 

23 

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023AT5.71.5-0.6-1.0-0.5-0.10.81.22.71.72.42.43.56.310.29.05.83.86.47.96.45.54.35.05.712.210.610.713.2BE6.01.81.02.02.52.85.67.07.62.71.02.24.68.99.87.45.14.97.44.30.4-0.71.44.04.87.14.910.113.3DE6.73.11.4-0.8-0.21.91.81.82.31.80.3-3.0-2.70.59.28.25.62.56.07.46.25.24.96.08.110.57.07.210.6ES9.26.28.57.97.47.47.28.47.78.98.710.110.513.611.16.3-1.4-5.0-5.1-3.7-1.2-1.2-0.61.05.915.213.810.87.7FI-5.1-0.20.90.41.12.53.93.94.21.62.53.33.57.114.712.59.05.89.37.63.30.3-3.7-2.01.35.56.59.313.8FR1.81.01.80.60.51.84.36.47.35.85.04.75.56.38.07.45.44.14.64.42.31.71.72.40.94.55.011.111.3IE1.4-2.2-2.32.53.16.810.29.812.38.212.410.813.917.69.4-4.2-14.2-10.2-1.7-3.2-18.8-15.6-14.1-1.2-4.0-6.5-9.4-10.65.7IT3.77.410.26.42.40.05.27.511.711.29.57.56.98.710.78.54.92.02.92.62.01.51.22.33.26.53.54.85.0LU8.99.67.03.10.64.111.513.810.36.07.08.47.110.614.914.212.18.09.95.85.62.66.09.913.912.47.413.220.8NL2.00.21.32.44.06.17.410.710.17.22.1-0.21.95.711.37.75.32.64.83.7-0.4-0.30.13.76.014.19.39.89.4PT16.214.515.912.510.911.311.511.910.67.27.44.85.04.36.54.4-0.5-6.2-3.8-2.90.2-0.52.86.38.515.613.310.78.6EL39.230.727.921.919.311.76.912.814.614.514.210.011.07.415.812.29.51.6-4.4-8.5-11.0-4.7-3.3-1.0-1.16.03.73.51.1SI19.015.418.522.624.820.714.99.86.55.510.217.915.57.70.10.10.1-0.11.33.65.77.914.312.714.318.8CY5.83.21.55.17.014.613.616.18.18.25.812.510.69.53.3-0.7-6.5-10.8-9.3-4.6-0.45.25.82.5-1.21.5MT13.910.68.14.41.71.37.48.112.55.64.15.64.57.57.65.69.37.29.32.30.96.36.612.58.019.27.06.0-1.4SK23.819.120.017.617.810.910.19.57.75.56.211.18.04.6-0.53.43.02.54.07.811.314.215.412.612.716.5EE135.562.836.017.713.510.910.413.714.114.218.632.548.837.411.8-2.20.711.614.715.012.612.314.216.014.610.019.032.8LV254.772.622.227.08.36.23.4-1.52.59.527.341.569.377.536.6-2.0-17.6-5.79.613.216.714.914.214.717.519.212.017.225.4LT255.4131.955.523.6-0.5-9.8-9.5-0.86.711.824.425.328.412.70.1-8.0-4.36.18.711.815.016.316.416.517.318.727.736.5HR29.930.726.011.08.58.212.18.55.06.79.215.511.26.1-2.1-5.1-6.9-6.2-5.7-4.1-0.32.813.24.211.012.5BG2649.51726.473.323.911.510.84.59.210.317.526.334.928.816.910.916.219.217.211.115.820.520.419.916.423.627.4CZ44.334.533.421.212.910.715.215.713.35.42.72.57.29.16.73.54.34.34.60.63.35.713.114.518.713.914.815.8DK-1.00.64.56.76.45.36.37.810.05.54.64.39.813.216.49.53.6-0.21.52.32.21.30.91.23.47.34.87.25.4HU63.044.034.833.732.828.421.117.611.010.912.612.05.73.27.07.36.11.35.69.312.311.513.612.524.034.0PL107.7102.876.353.432.720.115.97.50.5-6.9-3.7-1.53.210.612.313.36.17.13.52.60.42.44.06.68.014.012.115.722.0RO786.6327.4289.6443.0439.2337.7235.8138.279.925.853.431.130.332.922.828.8-0.73.70.99.43.911.317.628.724.020.714.716.926.7SE1.55.75.81.5-1.12.011.711.06.80.90.40.05.210.014.97.44.34.18.77.42.53.04.08.17.28.74.65.98.5 
 
 
 
 
7.  Household (+NPISH) debt (consolidated, % GDP), threshold 55% 

24 

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023AT42.142.943.042.344.445.045.346.146.747.651.952.451.652.253.554.653.252.051.251.050.851.150.349.749.753.252.248.744.8BE37.839.440.341.742.140.839.139.439.540.543.345.547.149.952.353.054.855.155.757.557.958.258.959.260.565.362.159.958.1DE60.063.365.267.270.671.270.170.070.368.867.965.361.559.762.159.457.156.655.754.253.653.352.952.653.557.056.555.052.1ES31.232.134.337.942.145.447.151.056.663.470.878.081.882.685.084.482.581.577.773.468.064.561.158.956.862.657.652.346.9FI36.333.530.229.630.931.231.834.137.540.644.948.249.351.157.358.959.061.061.562.563.364.164.465.265.869.068.065.663.7FR33.433.533.733.134.034.234.635.637.138.941.744.346.648.652.653.754.855.155.655.656.157.158.460.462.268.266.666.263.1IE29.833.435.036.039.340.148.051.958.970.381.692.198.2108.6118.4113.1106.798.392.980.255.752.846.641.737.635.130.025.827.7IT17.417.517.918.721.122.723.925.727.429.832.935.738.139.042.443.543.543.743.342.641.841.240.840.841.144.942.540.637.8LU37.937.037.436.437.738.338.739.342.743.645.445.350.551.355.154.956.257.957.058.559.060.562.565.767.168.866.666.868.3NL65.569.874.179.985.588.289.694.4101.3104.9107.9109.4109.6110.4118.2118.6118.0117.9115.1113.2111.3109.6106.8103.499.7103.898.992.486.7PT28.432.837.344.052.758.863.467.471.475.779.883.886.888.992.290.990.590.586.181.977.072.669.266.063.569.166.360.955.2EL5.66.58.09.010.513.116.820.724.128.936.141.046.450.252.262.065.366.166.164.662.961.358.458.856.059.855.745.341.8SI9.810.610.912.215.015.515.315.415.716.318.821.524.625.628.430.329.930.729.628.327.627.327.126.926.827.726.325.924.3CY62.966.069.070.277.077.775.074.169.273.390.691.998.2104.0113.5118.0121.5127.5129.3131.0126.4115.7105.095.886.288.679.971.765.9MT15.617.918.519.922.023.426.728.736.741.444.549.551.753.759.057.459.359.057.154.850.750.347.346.755.160.758.355.052.6SK3.63.33.64.13.64.25.85.77.010.613.715.918.020.624.024.826.228.129.832.534.438.240.942.343.546.547.047.144.0EE1.83.46.35.87.08.710.814.118.424.232.041.946.150.657.552.945.642.040.238.939.740.039.438.538.340.638.436.837.3LV1.41.31.62.53.25.46.08.720.217.527.439.042.041.549.547.740.032.729.226.424.323.422.321.020.220.419.517.917.7LT1.61.31.41.51.81.61.93.14.89.013.820.526.528.432.629.625.823.622.321.522.322.822.422.623.024.123.421.821.7HR4.05.08.610.711.312.816.221.424.827.330.534.136.938.639.541.240.640.439.539.337.634.533.533.333.837.533.830.629.9BG0.40.20.91.82.12.43.34.57.411.415.919.225.529.729.528.626.425.425.525.123.222.622.623.023.024.323.822.523.7CZ10.17.77.76.97.47.78.110.711.413.416.118.722.825.628.128.629.530.431.230.130.031.031.231.631.533.734.632.731.8DK79.080.783.488.988.188.393.197.7102.3107.4114.9120.2127.3130.7142.5138.3138.4130.5127.7125.1120.5118.3113.8111.9110.6112.0102.184.889.0HU6.65.24.84.45.06.58.311.817.120.023.526.230.036.337.539.437.531.728.325.621.120.118.617.718.520.821.118.716.8PL2.23.64.56.36.27.18.612.513.013.315.018.422.730.131.634.435.434.435.636.036.136.835.035.034.434.632.226.423.6RO0.81.01.01.30.81.00.92.35.26.49.913.418.220.421.422.220.719.719.318.017.417.016.315.715.416.115.814.012.5SE43.643.544.044.445.847.249.351.253.756.760.763.165.068.776.076.477.079.781.682.783.085.988.088.888.894.092.289.184.6 
 
 
 
 
8.  NFC debt (consolidated, % GDP), threshold 85% 

25 

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023AT70.676.577.676.178.175.275.569.972.374.578.477.776.276.275.973.873.272.271.973.271.977.378.473.269.6BE70.174.174.373.278.080.978.077.787.8117.3118.5114.6124.6134.3107.1103.4115.7135.2126.7121.1118.0117.5110.2101.498.4DE54.562.464.465.064.960.260.060.359.861.462.860.157.958.059.252.952.753.953.656.458.764.264.363.559.3ES46.652.357.962.865.570.375.584.9100.5111.4114.8119.2118.8115.6107.1100.494.187.783.278.074.272.185.380.171.264.7FI52.656.060.759.966.066.265.469.469.372.479.783.287.385.585.985.586.388.884.083.378.780.383.782.779.674.8FR58.261.265.269.268.366.766.267.868.669.373.878.178.280.683.281.885.886.786.186.688.090.9105.7100.997.492.4IE79.881.988.093.8120.5126.7156.7160.5173.3184.6187.4179.9194.7244.8223.7193.6187.2170.6151.2134.7121.6119.9IT50.953.956.257.159.060.263.466.871.875.080.279.678.781.078.777.274.170.968.767.065.073.668.964.260.1LU76.580.881.9106.7116.3174.7149.7135.3140.2262.0237.1259.5214.4220.7230.1239.8254.7263.8243.3226.9223.5231.3259.0277.3259.4259.2NL120.6123.6121.9117.9126.1122.8123.7118.8118.2120.1127.1124.9128.2133.0141.5152.7150.2148.2140.8137.9130.2129.3124.9117.7105.1PT74.080.088.688.190.288.490.191.998.0107.0112.1110.8114.1120.1115.5108.2102.296.793.889.186.094.690.380.975.1EL34.440.744.144.044.745.050.052.055.463.364.767.767.969.267.368.266.666.162.560.754.866.366.755.854.6SI50.957.861.272.180.385.184.983.181.577.669.659.753.749.045.641.741.739.940.235.9CY145.8155.2157.1165.5182.3187.9190.5197.4197.6210.9220.1218.9210.9198.6186.0179.4178.6162.3141.7132.3MT88.892.093.798.4103.3112.5107.5107.599.490.285.580.583.977.074.575.083.077.570.467.7SK42.341.143.645.045.448.845.947.048.449.044.143.547.449.248.348.249.047.146.241.5EE60.364.872.975.280.489.184.974.376.176.578.073.671.866.862.760.061.058.556.755.3LV50.955.663.963.267.481.081.174.563.661.455.953.954.953.448.846.244.739.035.334.8LT25.028.929.828.728.630.931.636.441.847.948.450.844.938.837.434.232.732.933.833.833.532.230.130.229.630.6HR76.275.371.867.562.258.353.958.151.647.343.5BG74.196.8110.6111.0107.9102.0102.3104.6100.185.581.376.272.167.867.860.152.149.0CZ39.639.342.543.846.547.648.950.553.954.953.148.849.548.951.147.347.946.044.641.9DK92.489.187.785.483.9102.9103.4110.6105.1105.1103.3107.6HU41.144.650.449.845.350.950.855.957.464.269.179.075.276.770.067.365.862.656.751.351.048.956.261.963.055.5PL33.228.127.029.331.737.435.635.639.039.840.843.043.445.542.341.839.841.439.037.033.3RO38.543.247.850.849.649.348.044.140.837.735.131.531.232.032.129.727.9SE82.987.190.294.994.389.386.290.090.3102.4120.6123.8111.6112.2112.2113.2112.5110.8109.6114.9109.7111.4118.9122.0122.4118.3 
 
 
 
 
9.  Private sector debt (consolidated, % GDP), threshold 133% 

26 

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023AT#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A114.9121.4122.8122.2124.8122.9127.4122.3123.9126.7131.9132.3129.4128.2127.1124.8124.0123.3122.3122.9121.5130.6130.7122.0114.4BE#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A112.2114.9113.4112.6117.6121.4121.3123.2134.9167.2170.7167.6179.4189.4162.8160.9173.6193.4185.5180.3178.5182.8172.3161.4156.5DE#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A125.0133.6134.5134.9135.1129.0127.9125.6121.3121.1124.8119.5115.0114.6114.9107.1106.3107.2106.6109.1112.2121.3120.8118.5111.4ES#N/A#N/A#N/A84.594.4103.3109.9116.5126.9138.9155.6178.5193.1197.4204.2203.2198.2188.6178.1167.4155.7147.7139.2133.1129.0147.9137.7123.4111.6FI#N/A#N/A#N/A82.187.092.091.7100.2103.7106.1114.3117.5121.7130.7140.5146.2144.6146.9147.0148.8152.1148.1147.7143.9146.1152.7150.7145.2138.6FR#N/A#N/A#N/A91.395.299.5103.8103.8103.8105.2109.6112.9115.9122.4130.6132.0135.3138.3137.4141.5142.8143.2145.0148.4153.1173.9167.5163.7155.4IE#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A131.7140.7158.3175.4212.6224.9265.4278.9286.4291.3285.7272.8274.9300.5276.6240.2228.9208.1186.4164.6147.5147.6IT#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A72.076.580.282.786.490.096.3102.5109.9114.0122.6123.1122.2124.7122.0119.8116.0112.1109.4107.8106.1118.5111.4104.797.9LU#N/A#N/A#N/A113.0118.5120.2145.4155.6217.4193.3180.7185.5312.6288.5314.5269.3276.8287.9296.8313.2322.7303.7289.4289.2298.4327.8343.9326.2327.5NL#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A206.0211.9211.5212.3227.4227.6231.6228.2227.8230.5245.3243.6246.1250.9256.6266.0261.5257.8247.6241.3229.9233.1223.7210.1191.7PT#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A126.7138.8152.1155.4161.6164.1169.9175.7184.8195.9204.3201.7204.6210.6201.6190.1179.3169.3163.0155.1149.5163.7156.6141.8130.3EL#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A44.953.961.064.768.873.986.193.0101.8113.5116.9129.7133.2135.3133.5132.8129.5127.4120.8119.5110.8126.1122.4101.196.4SI#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A67.276.682.796.7105.9113.5115.2112.9112.2107.297.987.481.076.172.568.569.466.266.160.2CY#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A219.1245.9249.0263.7286.3301.4308.5318.9325.1340.2351.1345.3326.6303.6281.8265.6267.3242.2213.3198.3MT#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A130.1136.5143.2150.1157.0171.5164.9166.9158.4147.3140.2131.2134.2124.3121.2130.1143.7135.7125.4120.3SK#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A52.954.859.463.066.072.870.773.176.578.876.577.985.690.190.791.795.594.293.385.5EE#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A84.596.8114.8121.3131.0146.6137.8120.0118.1116.7116.9113.3111.9106.2101.298.3101.596.993.692.6LV#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A68.383.0102.9105.1108.9130.5128.8114.596.390.782.278.378.375.669.866.465.258.553.252.5LT#N/A#N/A#N/A26.430.831.530.631.635.840.650.162.374.476.883.574.564.661.056.654.155.256.656.256.155.254.353.651.452.3HR#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A115.7114.7109.4102.095.791.787.795.685.377.873.3BG#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A93.3122.3140.3140.4136.5128.4127.6130.1125.1108.8104.098.795.090.892.184.074.672.7CZ#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A53.055.461.266.672.175.877.580.084.386.183.278.880.480.182.878.881.780.677.373.7DK#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A222.9216.8212.8205.9202.2216.7215.3221.2217.1207.2188.1196.6HU#N/A#N/A#N/A45.549.756.958.157.168.070.879.483.694.2105.4116.5114.6114.1101.795.691.483.876.869.968.767.477.182.981.772.3PL#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A46.241.442.047.654.467.467.270.174.574.276.579.079.582.377.376.774.276.071.263.457.0RO#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A56.863.769.273.170.369.067.362.258.154.751.447.246.648.147.943.740.4SE#N/A#N/A#N/A127.4132.9137.4144.3145.5143.0142.9150.7153.4167.4189.3199.7188.0189.2191.9194.7195.2193.8195.5202.9198.5200.2212.9214.2211.5202.9 
 
 
 
 
10. HH (+NPISH) credit flow (% debt stock t-1), threshold 14% 

27 

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023AT5.14.63.17.66.65.35.55.07.17.05.23.91.90.70.71.70.20.81.01.61.92.43.02.82.84.32.9BE6.16.96.75.02.51.83.93.66.511.59.79.58.82.66.17.23.33.45.04.14.14.64.86.43.94.85.42.3DE6.95.35.76.13.11.41.01.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-1.3-1.0-0.40.30.81.00.81.32.42.93.33.84.74.55.14.10.7ES10.314.119.119.417.412.416.018.820.120.519.412.44.4-0.30.2-2.4-4.0-4.9-3.8-2.3-1.7-0.60.20.1-0.61.00.5-2.2FI-3.31.36.210.28.57.39.312.113.215.912.611.07.55.26.15.55.02.62.63.64.34.04.63.84.43.93.0FR4.25.03.47.56.16.16.27.88.911.811.111.26.93.55.54.62.41.71.83.24.35.85.46.44.35.65.01.3IE23.021.019.226.019.130.222.922.624.128.420.114.73.9-1.0-5.0-4.8-4.1-1.9-3.3-2.8-1.8-0.5-1.10.4-1.2-1.3-0.4IT7.87.410.817.815.312.211.610.914.014.613.211.55.14.15.02.6-1.0-1.7-0.80.01.22.32.82.41.13.73.6LU2.89.21.817.513.45.16.414.19.711.812.722.97.94.58.17.08.24.08.45.36.47.18.66.06.08.57.5NL11.614.315.313.812.18.09.68.87.27.17.46.25.03.52.71.30.5-1.2-0.61.11.21.61.51.32.04.12.9PT22.423.128.226.219.414.510.98.110.08.99.99.64.21.61.2-2.3-4.1-3.3-3.3-1.8-1.80.60.41.01.63.53.3-0.7EL28.023.722.825.029.437.832.227.530.428.525.021.812.52.9-1.2-4.1-3.7-2.8-3.2-3.4-2.9-2.2-1.9-2.4-3.1-1.9-2.1-1.0SI25.617.324.038.313.111.610.810.310.821.623.727.112.06.75.90.7-2.7-2.8-1.00.84.06.36.55.71.05.67.63.9CY9.020.317.630.312.33.92.91.010.632.29.317.015.07.28.45.11.6-6.5-1.9-0.6-0.70.32.70.53.33.0-1.8MT20.79.714.016.915.417.713.335.513.113.016.611.811.210.85.95.05.84.40.23.15.16.67.114.03.79.77.4SK16.923.935.3-0.829.556.647.554.949.683.354.248.834.121.510.811.310.57.012.111.213.111.39.68.25.98.49.64.6EE139.4131.9-49.128.137.142.150.548.846.352.256.932.910.8-3.3-3.6-2.7-0.90.82.65.37.07.56.67.74.27.310.5LV-1.852.561.831.888.035.968.360.142.389.180.042.57.0-7.3-5.5-6.8-6.0-3.9-5.0-2.90.52.11.62.00.15.56.1LT2.826.119.921.9-6.622.576.257.282.375.770.356.620.5-5.4-5.7-3.5-2.20.02.07.07.37.48.88.67.610.511.5HR39.193.138.38.621.029.445.028.118.520.222.318.712.0-2.43.2-1.4-1.5-1.3-0.4-1.80.64.36.47.42.14.75.79.5BG-20.04075.0188.09.326.255.947.577.774.058.930.458.834.20.00.50.4-1.40.50.9-0.45.69.69.810.56.614.115.0CZ-10.48.7-1.413.111.113.938.511.934.127.024.233.516.68.52.96.64.14.61.86.57.88.36.96.56.28.64.9DK6.37.79.29.96.77.18.15.86.69.112.812.010.55.83.21.91.70.50.41.72.52.70.81.41.60.22.61.50.4HU-5.3-3.414.86.128.347.648.762.756.230.924.722.623.017.0-0.5-2.6-8.8-9.0-5.1-4.0-13.80.82.55.415.014.715.45.8PL107.248.562.99.926.513.913.913.817.421.634.140.732.113.09.17.84.35.14.44.04.35.06.15.81.54.6-3.4-0.2RO85.2109.591.6-2.818.245.6211.6182.655.177.872.387.031.5-4.11.11.7-0.5-0.6-1.64.94.27.88.57.63.68.94.62.5SE2.55.96.18.69.28.28.19.010.110.910.39.28.38.57.55.24.14.65.77.16.96.65.45.25.76.93.9 
 
 
 
 
 
11. NFC credit flow (% debt stock t-1), excl. FDI, threshold 13% 

Note: The debt stock in the denominator of the NFC credit flow headline variable excludes foreign direct investment (FDI) and is thus different from the debt stock in the NFC debt stock headline 
variable. 

28 

199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023AT3.23.12.85.14.84.86.35.3BE-2.0-12.3-1.515.28.7-11.29.111.2-3.1-2.73.7-0.8-0.14.84.7DE1.8-0.31.86.21.46.58.37.16.610.00.8ES0.2-1.02.97.02.3-1.5-2.6FI41.815.02.94.58.14.75.2-5.6-3.12.24.75.44.08.4-0.3-3.6FR1.94.33.95.55.46.05.113.41.84.62.9IE-6.8-15.2-5.9-11.42.2-190.9-301.04.333.3IT6.7-1.73.32.6-0.7-2.9-0.3-1.7-1.10.90.5-3.05.72.8-0.6LU53.427.613.8-21.38.9-5.1NL0.32.84.98.05.93.2-1.26.64.55.92.1-2.35.30.3-0.6-1.91.97.45.8PT12.718.816.716.813.46.02.87.27.15.812.912.63.02.50.1-5.3-4.1-1.70.0-2.10.0-0.50.85.02.91.50.5EL1.34.7-5.2-2.8-3.1-1.6-1.5-0.5-0.20.90.612.62.25.14.8SI0.3-2.0-2.7-4.4-6.3-7.9-2.9-2.1-2.4-2.9-2.91.010.8-2.2CY1.87.06.1-2.90.31.32.25.63.7-3.01.2-0.1-2.8MT5.2-5.212.610.67.52.4-1.50.1-2.07.6-7.712.22.82.512.23.04.52.1SK6.31.35.3-6.14.45.65.43.49.63.0EE6.80.96.83.02.0-0.51.68.711.0LV-6.3-0.32.27.8-5.00.3-5.4-5.46.7LT28.135.742.3-1.32.910.010.211.01.3-9.712.423.7HR-0.533.922.213.613.721.226.219.217.70.63.81.3-1.30.1-1.1-0.9-0.40.31.3-10.1-0.40.48.67.3BG2.61.72.80.3-3.63.01.64.44.00.85.36.4CZ-4.22.8-1.73.56.8-0.4-4.55.710.612.7-1.7-5.6-3.010.4DK16.66.714.7-7.8-6.61.49.9-4.1-4.4-1.1-0.31.13.67.95.37.27.83.8HU23.523.611.816.328.911.26.015.816.113.813.816.710.5-4.0-2.8-2.7-2.4-0.5-3.5-3.33.54.78.014.318.516.313.7PL-0.512.521.931.9-0.41.015.410.22.98.39.36.36.03.74.12.83.811.24.1RO2.01.67.811.412.910.3SE5.417.91.80.75.16.15.04.97.55.97.1 
 
 
 
12. Private sector credit flow, consolidated (% GDP), threshold 14% 

29 

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023AT5.96.24.95.411.211.77.44.66.44.16.85.37.35.41.30.33.01.21.00.92.13.33.64.85.04.47.65.00.1BE3.56.17.68.79.78.72.74.811.49.85.25.217.016.82.41.022.114.38.5-2.411.023.80.8-1.34.8-3.06.15.82.2DE1.57.05.67.59.69.94.51.20.6-3.80.42.41.71.6-0.91.82.11.62.70.22.94.64.26.26.47.06.96.4-0.2ES3.65.07.812.115.017.114.614.818.119.427.135.526.312.0-1.20.9-4.2-11.1-10.2-7.1-2.0-0.40.70.01.54.83.00.3-2.2FI-4.3-0.8-0.45.19.011.52.57.56.26.212.48.713.116.70.87.55.47.23.01.76.91.38.34.36.66.56.12.3-2.1FR0.03.73.83.58.19.78.44.84.45.78.29.211.29.83.34.66.44.22.13.24.66.27.18.28.413.56.78.91.8IE-3.016.914.721.526.625.122.416.88.223.633.640.924.922.3-5.02.616.3-1.2-0.72.5-2.2-14.80.2-8.7-9.6-3.81.92.0-1.8IT4.52.32.73.98.28.88.15.96.97.69.710.412.06.50.74.93.1-0.9-2.8-0.3-1.40.11.22.00.44.03.32.9-0.8LU3.72.747.6-22.019.014.229.716.969.2-9.00.625.6144.4-5.37.0-21.320.824.526.428.121.32.1-5.37.3-0.145.764.1-19.50.1NL4.011.212.116.119.520.012.210.611.39.013.211.314.211.99.62.37.96.19.74.20.03.63.55.2-0.3-0.79.66.91.7PT7.810.814.021.720.421.120.610.27.610.812.013.319.016.25.35.5-0.8-4.3-2.3-6.8-1.4-1.82.90.82.64.44.53.50.9EL1.55.33.36.66.110.311.08.110.310.814.416.516.015.62.22.4-6.6-4.8-4.1-3.1-3.1-2.2-1.2-0.8-0.95.50.81.12.0SI9.54.86.28.912.09.210.07.18.48.512.513.621.615.63.02.00.5-2.8-3.7-4.7-5.0-0.80.91.30.8-0.93.55.40.4CY73.721.127.816.325.336.91.0-11.51.814.841.217.138.443.810.820.717.70.7-12.1-0.84.312.07.611.4-0.5-1.46.5-3.92.3MT11.913.79.77.97.98.27.52.56.610.512.210.215.918.716.17.36.50.62.96.67.110.76.06.113.75.88.86.35.7SK15.29.311.415.8-1.9-19.38.66.73.61.76.111.011.916.74.02.84.61.84.95.05.09.25.06.24.52.64.58.42.3EE8.413.919.49.11.97.214.214.514.517.223.033.326.911.1-5.5-3.2-0.87.74.66.32.36.44.24.63.42.96.89.23.7LV-3.83.69.39.13.36.56.49.58.217.926.437.628.911.2-9.0-8.4-2.3-2.4-0.6-4.6-0.82.52.8-0.21.1-1.80.93.11.1LT5.52.76.24.44.02.51.63.55.68.514.218.724.910.4-9.4-5.9-2.20.4-0.20.22.64.44.54.32.60.35.86.84.3HR3.92.412.610.70.63.111.814.411.010.613.517.916.616.02.54.6-2.3-1.6-0.4-1.2-1.6-0.11.52.21.20.62.95.63.9BG0.033.52.54.04.68.46.78.911.818.520.229.443.834.41.8-0.43.52.62.62.3-3.82.94.54.05.64.24.95.95.8CZ9.110.612.2-2.41.5-0.5-2.95.0-2.56.74.39.311.210.91.33.52.53.14.32.3-0.46.26.06.81.40.62.94.52.1DK0.98.86.49.58.420.19.45.99.76.722.323.817.118.8-1.9-2.94.47.9-3.0-0.32.93.12.04.810.55.411.513.14.3HU2.47.48.44.87.512.210.27.914.510.911.113.716.112.25.9-3.9-4.3-5.9-0.9-0.2-2.5-3.20.64.34.18.212.99.21.9PL4.86.44.08.63.65.33.31.52.00.83.69.312.514.24.43.86.74.93.24.84.04.43.23.73.61.73.73.00.9RO3.55.65.36.6-3.01.85.08.67.99.111.715.319.912.7-1.60.92.70.3-1.5-2.30.20.61.81.92.01.33.83.32.0SE-0.82.04.911.313.314.213.35.34.76.813.110.420.719.05.85.27.02.34.55.78.812.413.79.39.714.516.310.52.4 
 
 
 
 
13. Nominal house price index, threshold 9% 

30 

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023AT#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A0.760.640.25-1.874.984.134.661.003.976.885.376.625.003.825.626.715.095.976.017.5811.4411.57-2.56BE4.522.172.406.367.105.434.816.366.988.6813.239.817.754.35-0.412.263.582.351.48-0.331.812.333.543.023.744.296.665.532.46DE1.48-1.34-1.77-0.900.100.460.09-1.390.40-1.511.18-0.36-2.171.350.851.083.463.463.123.134.717.506.146.665.757.7711.545.30-8.41ES3.461.871.594.6510.388.579.7815.3917.1817.0713.5513.419.81-1.43-6.61-1.77-7.64-14.78-9.120.313.584.626.196.735.172.243.687.414.02FI-1.825.9415.788.847.053.89-1.596.346.278.058.166.965.900.801.446.313.182.421.15-0.350.001.291.090.930.421.764.591.18-5.57FR-0.910.87-0.422.066.998.697.798.7511.8915.1614.9511.566.410.94-6.114.645.73-0.55-1.86-1.53-1.341.043.172.933.335.206.316.32-0.42IE6.288.5814.7024.1321.5020.6415.084.4514.3311.179.6714.877.47-6.94-19.15-13.50-17.08-13.451.2516.5311.467.4610.8710.232.350.318.2812.323.09IT0.783.843.41-0.031.053.915.8211.916.156.177.635.744.992.64-0.490.731.35-2.51-6.51-4.67-3.850.30-1.10-0.60-0.101.932.593.791.31LU0.286.643.593.576.437.2514.108.4411.2113.9811.4111.146.993.35-1.165.423.684.204.984.395.406.015.617.0610.1214.4913.929.56-9.06NL7.2110.7711.9110.8716.3518.249.556.352.464.004.834.254.842.20-4.45-1.75-1.98-6.69-6.030.843.515.298.059.337.228.0114.5013.25-1.91PT1.531.633.634.468.987.755.450.561.110.672.302.041.373.78-0.920.77-4.91-7.07-1.884.243.057.129.2410.269.968.789.4012.638.20EL8.4510.597.6514.368.9010.5714.4013.865.392.3110.9013.245.951.69-3.72-4.66-5.47-11.66-10.85-7.47-5.05-2.38-1.011.817.224.497.6111.9413.44SI#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A9.6714.4116.8123.637.00-9.470.132.71-6.89-5.25-6.600.813.258.278.736.704.6011.5414.767.14CY#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A1.2510.376.2611.8611.745.65-6.56-5.73-1.60-3.05-4.09-1.76-1.450.272.241.763.72-0.20-3.382.682.93MT#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A9.5912.5916.4216.867.6919.8721.0011.08-4.321.08-1.363.05-0.412.555.815.455.295.786.133.385.116.655.25SK#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A16.7328.9617.91-12.75-4.01-1.50-2.710.911.415.366.705.907.379.129.576.3913.700.07EE#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A32.7049.5020.77-9.62-37.205.678.487.2910.6513.726.864.755.505.947.006.0015.0522.245.87LV#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A0.2746.7222.532.7223.9755.1836.271.10-37.31-10.9610.432.966.856.00-3.368.498.789.578.963.4710.8913.833.79LT#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A-9.7512.605.599.748.1025.6528.3526.328.99-29.93-7.396.62-0.231.226.423.665.408.927.306.847.2716.0519.059.82HR#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A1.815.533.2411.0411.2717.7512.042.89-5.00-6.330.17-1.56-3.95-1.58-2.890.893.836.108.967.667.3114.8511.94BG#N/A107.07804.0813.830.83-0.760.32-8.9111.5547.3636.6314.7028.9124.95-20.40-10.17-5.51-1.91-2.191.432.797.028.676.596.024.568.6713.799.86CZ#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A9.4912.6510.160.411.537.6719.3512.85-3.87-1.750.11-1.470.002.453.957.2011.668.609.158.4619.6916.88-1.67DK7.5910.6911.548.986.746.515.863.603.178.9617.5824.072.68-5.17-11.982.80-1.70-2.703.903.776.965.224.544.372.355.0811.74-0.47-3.58HU#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A2.38-5.24-2.39-3.43-3.70-2.564.1913.0813.3812.2214.3516.964.9416.5022.345.61PL#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A36.6248.75-0.82-2.80-3.750.09-3.49-4.380.981.521.863.856.588.6710.489.1711.808.82RO#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A-23.79-7.53-12.31-5.07-0.25-2.062.865.956.055.573.434.694.407.173.29SE0.270.826.629.519.3811.227.946.396.559.389.9112.3412.451.113.167.882.571.275.159.4213.128.246.64-0.942.484.2010.113.56-5.26 
 
 
 
 
 
14. Real house price index, threshold 6% 

31 

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023AT#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A-1.60-0.40-1.27-3.552.491.982.10-1.083.625.042.124.152.821.754.105.163.253.854.166.289.123.87-9.92BE2.931.520.955.176.701.982.445.265.406.0310.086.874.941.140.410.370.710.330.42-1.080.950.801.591.002.293.404.07-3.90-2.80DE0.14-1.98-2.84-1.18-0.52-0.47-1.95-2.63-1.07-2.550.09-1.64-3.95-0.610.80-0.561.652.051.712.214.146.744.565.124.387.158.33-1.29-13.88ES-1.31-0.89-1.172.968.084.256.0012.3513.5413.099.899.546.22-4.84-5.71-3.68-9.76-16.49-9.990.183.684.454.595.234.072.141.370.80-0.18FI-2.164.9213.597.095.540.83-4.174.625.227.747.015.493.89-2.52-0.444.80-0.12-0.39-1.25-1.61-0.461.080.06-0.36-0.571.422.31-4.71-9.54FR-1.86-0.70-1.251.817.506.285.707.8310.0112.7512.899.194.21-1.76-4.693.503.83-1.94-2.53-1.64-1.620.792.341.222.474.124.761.54-6.32IE3.435.0011.6119.4818.0315.1910.28-0.6210.039.248.0112.084.31-8.36-13.46-12.40-17.85-14.39-0.0315.5411.056.979.278.230.54-0.414.205.00-3.33IT-5.21-0.241.42-1.88-0.600.793.198.713.003.645.522.972.69-0.550.08-0.84-1.52-5.00-7.54-4.91-3.990.19-2.14-1.54-0.691.810.97-3.57-3.71LU-1.684.992.061.913.894.0311.386.888.5811.397.898.514.740.23-0.083.330.712.023.373.664.485.223.335.108.6712.7312.493.96-12.25NL4.989.379.388.9214.3414.776.122.840.132.622.941.442.730.11-3.00-3.33-4.00-7.86-7.95-0.053.324.716.577.024.506.5811.065.95-9.98PT-3.36-1.200.581.956.343.881.56-2.83-2.38-1.63-1.48-1.45-1.950.971.03-1.05-6.51-8.73-2.634.012.156.077.568.579.048.137.274.852.98EL-0.532.612.919.025.947.1211.2411.422.80-0.967.719.692.23-2.54-4.62-4.31-8.19-12.49-9.28-5.21-3.83-1.50-1.381.707.185.696.535.258.43SI#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A6.4911.9714.1018.801.33-10.24-1.310.92-8.46-7.23-6.201.423.636.626.625.315.187.934.34-0.15CY#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A-0.918.633.067.937.670.86-6.83-8.17-4.43-5.52-3.86-1.101.042.221.240.483.421.23-4.18-3.60-0.24MT#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A6.9510.7015.3013.434.7616.8619.467.01-6.15-1.08-3.900.38-1.552.014.144.464.184.834.182.143.831.16-0.40SK#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A11.3025.7012.85-12.80-4.96-5.17-5.93-0.421.505.487.044.434.956.227.253.041.34-9.24EE#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A27.9641.6511.91-16.29-36.491.763.113.117.3412.937.303.651.072.284.237.0110.384.45-2.98LV#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A-2.1239.1416.33-3.5413.0240.8722.04-10.89-34.96-8.763.94-0.276.394.66-2.767.265.326.355.483.537.250.43-3.90LT#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A-8.189.976.0411.508.2822.7822.6819.36-1.72-32.86-8.772.16-3.240.366.424.694.425.224.544.515.9910.930.391.10HR#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A-2.743.200.968.757.8313.638.91-2.35-7.93-7.65-1.95-4.59-5.75-1.25-2.592.022.934.607.767.064.883.213.69BG#N/A-2.64-20.71-7.14-1.71-5.64-4.99-12.0110.9142.7027.7212.2418.4517.64-20.91-11.80-8.87-4.64-0.790.070.415.253.884.093.925.192.51-2.062.73CZ#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A5.7911.2010.03-2.930.405.8015.947.88-4.71-2.22-1.58-3.54-0.701.593.956.779.135.936.165.4016.351.63-10.00DK5.648.869.497.374.763.613.431.721.957.6915.6221.400.92-7.83-13.080.32-3.95-4.943.063.156.555.093.483.731.454.709.50-7.40-6.44HU#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A-3.22-9.10-5.55-6.59-8.88-4.212.8412.4812.278.6210.6711.841.549.586.20-8.40PL#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A34.5945.51-4.70-5.36-5.95-4.39-6.43-4.651.291.922.651.975.036.366.753.53-1.93-1.75RO#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A-26.55-15.49-15.67-8.89-1.72-3.201.655.243.301.66-1.872.29-0.23-6.38-5.89SE-2.650.025.189.047.8210.225.744.654.528.888.9711.5310.98-1.751.076.561.180.714.468.3012.027.294.77-3.310.363.328.12-3.02-10.89 
 
 
 
 
15. Unemployment rate (% labour force Y15-74), threshold 10% 

32 

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023AT4.54.94.94.74.03.83.94.34.65.96.05.75.34.45.75.24.95.25.76.06.16.55.95.24.86.06.24.85.1BE9.69.69.49.48.77.16.77.68.38.58.68.47.67.18.08.47.27.68.68.78.77.97.26.05.55.86.35.65.5DE7.98.59.39.08.17.47.58.29.310.210.59.68.17.07.36.65.55.15.04.74.43.93.63.23.03.73.73.13.1ES22.922.120.618.615.713.910.611.511.511.09.28.58.211.317.919.921.424.826.124.522.119.617.215.314.115.514.913.012.2FI15.614.113.311.510.39.99.29.29.18.98.57.87.06.58.38.68.07.98.38.79.48.98.77.56.87.77.76.87.2FR10.210.510.710.310.08.67.87.98.58.98.98.88.07.49.19.39.29.810.310.310.310.19.49.08.48.07.97.37.3IE12.111.69.97.85.94.54.24.74.84.74.64.85.06.812.614.615.415.513.811.99.98.46.75.85.05.96.24.54.3IT11.511.911.912.111.510.79.79.18.88.17.86.96.26.87.98.58.510.912.412.912.011.711.310.69.99.39.58.17.7LU2.92.92.52.62.42.42.32.93.75.14.54.74.15.15.14.44.95.15.95.96.76.35.55.65.66.85.34.65.2NL8.77.96.85.44.43.62.83.44.55.67.26.15.24.55.46.16.06.88.28.47.97.05.94.94.44.94.23.53.6PT8.68.68.16.05.44.84.86.07.57.89.09.19.59.011.212.613.516.617.214.613.011.59.27.26.77.06.76.26.5EL9.610.010.411.412.411.611.010.610.010.810.29.28.68.09.812.918.124.827.826.625.023.921.819.717.917.614.712.511.1SI6.86.96.97.47.46.86.26.36.76.36.56.04.94.45.97.38.28.910.19.79.08.06.65.14.45.04.84.03.7CY#N/A#N/A5.05.05.24.93.93.64.34.75.34.63.93.75.46.37.911.915.916.115.013.011.18.47.17.67.56.86.1MT4.65.26.36.46.46.66.96.97.67.26.96.86.56.06.96.96.46.26.15.75.44.74.04.04.14.93.83.53.1SK12.110.912.212.616.418.819.318.717.618.216.313.411.19.512.014.313.513.914.113.111.59.68.16.55.76.76.86.15.8EE9.810.210.210.012.414.613.011.210.310.18.05.94.65.513.516.612.39.98.67.36.46.85.85.44.56.96.25.66.4LV14.815.914.614.214.214.513.912.611.711.810.17.16.27.817.719.716.315.111.910.99.99.78.77.46.38.17.66.96.5LT6.87.813.113.414.416.417.313.712.510.98.35.84.35.813.817.815.413.411.810.79.17.97.16.26.38.57.16.06.9HR#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A15.616.015.014.213.712.811.39.98.69.211.713.716.017.317.316.213.111.28.56.67.57.67.06.1BG12.411.814.513.314.919.623.621.115.914.111.710.58.06.57.911.312.313.313.912.410.18.67.26.25.26.15.34.24.3CZ4.13.94.86.58.88.88.27.37.88.37.97.25.34.46.77.36.77.07.06.15.14.02.92.22.02.62.82.22.6DK7.36.85.75.45.64.64.64.65.45.54.83.93.83.76.47.77.87.87.46.96.36.05.85.15.05.65.14.55.1HU9.59.68.88.26.86.25.55.65.75.97.07.37.27.69.710.810.710.79.87.56.65.04.03.63.34.14.13.64.1PL13.312.311.310.713.716.819.020.720.419.718.514.410.07.48.510.010.010.410.69.27.76.35.03.93.33.23.42.92.8RO11.08.37.47.88.68.98.310.58.59.98.88.97.87.18.49.09.18.79.08.68.47.26.15.34.96.15.65.65.6SE10.010.711.09.37.96.75.05.25.86.67.67.26.36.38.58.88.08.18.28.17.67.16.86.57.08.58.97.57.7 
 
 
 
 
 
16. Unemployment rate (% labour force Y15-74), 3y average, threshold 10% 

33 

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023AT4.54.74.84.84.54.23.94.04.34.95.55.95.75.15.15.15.35.15.35.65.96.26.25.95.35.35.75.75.4BE9.39.69.59.59.28.47.57.17.58.18.58.58.27.77.67.87.97.77.88.38.78.47.97.06.25.85.95.95.8DE7.88.18.68.98.88.27.77.78.39.210.010.19.48.27.57.06.55.75.24.94.74.34.03.63.33.33.53.53.3ES23.223.021.920.418.316.113.412.011.211.310.69.68.69.312.516.419.722.024.125.124.222.119.617.415.515.014.814.513.4FI16.315.514.313.011.710.69.89.49.29.18.88.47.87.17.37.88.38.28.18.38.89.09.08.47.77.37.47.47.2FR10.210.410.510.510.39.68.88.18.18.48.88.98.68.18.28.69.29.49.810.110.310.29.99.58.98.58.17.77.5IE13.912.611.29.87.96.14.94.54.64.74.74.74.85.58.111.314.215.214.913.711.910.18.37.05.85.65.75.55.0IT10.911.511.812.011.811.410.69.89.28.78.27.67.06.67.07.78.39.310.612.112.412.211.711.210.69.99.69.08.4LU2.93.02.82.72.52.52.42.53.03.94.44.84.44.64.84.94.84.85.35.66.26.36.25.85.66.05.95.65.0NL8.58.57.86.75.54.53.63.33.64.55.86.36.25.35.05.35.86.37.07.88.27.86.95.95.14.74.54.23.8PT7.88.58.47.66.55.45.05.26.17.18.18.69.29.29.910.912.414.215.816.114.913.011.29.37.77.06.86.66.5EL9.39.610.010.611.411.811.711.110.510.510.310.19.38.68.810.213.618.623.626.426.525.223.621.819.818.416.714.912.8SI6.97.17.27.26.86.46.46.46.56.35.85.15.15.97.18.19.19.69.68.97.96.65.44.84.74.64.2CY5.15.04.74.13.94.24.84.94.64.14.35.16.58.711.914.615.714.713.010.88.97.77.47.36.8MT5.25.15.46.06.46.56.66.87.17.27.27.06.76.46.56.66.76.56.26.05.75.34.74.24.04.34.34.13.5SK11.711.913.715.918.218.918.518.217.416.013.611.310.911.913.313.913.813.712.911.49.78.16.86.36.46.56.2EE8.09.210.110.110.912.313.312.911.510.59.58.06.25.37.911.914.112.910.38.67.46.86.36.05.25.65.96.26.1LV11.514.615.114.914.314.314.213.712.712.011.29.77.87.010.615.117.917.014.412.610.910.29.48.67.57.37.37.57.0LT5.36.39.211.413.614.716.015.814.512.410.68.36.15.38.012.515.715.513.512.010.59.28.07.16.57.07.37.26.7HR15.515.114.313.612.611.39.99.29.811.513.815.716.916.915.513.510.98.87.57.27.46.9BG12.913.214.215.919.421.420.217.013.912.110.18.37.58.610.512.313.213.212.110.48.67.36.25.85.55.24.6CZ4.34.14.35.16.78.08.68.17.87.88.07.86.85.65.56.16.97.06.96.76.15.14.03.02.42.32.52.52.5DK8.67.56.66.05.65.24.94.64.95.25.24.74.23.84.65.97.37.87.77.46.96.46.05.65.35.25.25.14.9HU9.38.97.97.16.25.85.65.76.26.77.27.48.29.410.410.710.49.38.06.45.24.23.63.73.83.93.9PL13.913.312.311.411.913.716.518.820.020.319.517.514.310.68.68.69.510.110.310.19.27.76.35.14.13.53.33.23.0RO11.710.58.97.87.98.48.69.29.19.69.19.28.57.97.88.28.88.98.98.88.78.17.26.25.45.45.55.85.6SE10.310.410.610.39.48.06.55.65.35.96.77.17.06.67.07.98.48.38.18.18.07.67.26.86.87.38.18.38.0 
 
 
 
Annex 5.  Past changes to the MIP scoreboard  

Since the inception of the MIP in 2011, modifications to the scoreboard were carried out in 2012, 2013, 2015 and 
2018.  

I. In 2012/2013: the financial sector liabilities indicator was introduced among the headline indicators after having 
consulted the ESRB as requested by Article 4.5 of Regulation No 1176/2011.19 

II. In 2013/2014:  
▪  Non-consolidated data were replaced by consolidated data in private credit and debt headline indicators (the 
respective thresholds were also adjusted) following improvements in the availability of consolidated data and 
a subsequent re-assessment of the relative merits of consolidated and non-consolidated data also for cross-
country  comparability;  since  consolidated  private  sector  debt  was  part  of  the  auxiliary  indicators,  it  was 
replaced there by non-consolidated private debt. 

▪  Three new auxiliary indicators were added: terms of trade, export performance against advanced economies, 

and inward FDI stocks. 

▪  Eight employment and social variables were added among the auxiliary indicators (in the form of stock and 
of  flow  indicators)  in  light  of  the  commitment  by  the  Commission  to  better  take  into  account  the  social 
dimension in its economic surveillance and to better qualify the implications of the imbalances and of  the 
adjustment  process:  activity  rate;  long-term  unemployment;  youth  unemployment;  young  people  not  in 
employment, education or training; people at-risk of poverty or social exclusion; at-risk of poverty rate; severe 
material deprivation; and persons living in households with very low work intensity.20 

III.  In  2015/2016:  three  employment  indicators  were  upgraded  to  headline  indicators  (activity  rate;  long-term 
unemployment; youth unemployment; all three in the form of flow variables) as the Commission had committed 
to better take into account the analysis of employment and social developments in the MIP, including to allow for 
a  better  understanding  of  the  social  consequences  of  imbalances  and  their  correction.  The  inclusion  of  these 
variables  does  not  change  the  focus  of  the  MIP.  Flashes  of  these  indicators  do  not  imply  by  themselves  an 
aggravation of macro-financial risks, and consequently are not used to trigger any steps in the MIP.21   

IV. In 2018/2019, a number of changes were proposed to the auxiliary indicators:  
▪  Net external debt was replaced with NIIP excluding non-defaultable instruments in order to obtain a broader 
representation of external stocks carrying risks and to benefit from the revision of the Balance of Payments 
statistics (from BPM5 to BPM6), permitting a finer breakdown on net foreign assets and liabilities.  

▪  The  non-consolidated  financial  leverage  indicator  from  national  accounts  was  replaced  with  consolidated 
banking leverage, domestic and foreign entities from ECB consolidated banking data, which has  a clearer 
economic interpretation, is comparable across countries, and is consistently based on book values even if it 
covers the banking sector only.  

▪  The  addition  of  two  indicators  that  are  regularly  used  in  MIP  analysis:  household  debt  (consolidated)  to 
complement the headline indicator on private-sector debt; and gross non-performing loans, which provides 
complementary  information  to  assess  private  debt.  The  addition  of  the  latter  has  become  possible  by  the 
availability of cross-country comparable data in the ECB's consolidated banking statistics as of 2015.  
▪  To keep the scoreboard parsimonious, two auxiliary indicators were dropped: ten-year change of nominal 
unit labour cost (NULC), as it overlaps with data on NULC and on NULC relative to euro area already in the 
scoreboard, and non-consolidated private-sector debt, which has been superseded by the headline indicator 
on consolidated private sector debt. 

Over time, there have been some other smaller technical changes at the level of variable names due to changing 
Eurostat terminology, revisions in data sources and statistical methodology improvements. 

19 SWD(2012) 389 final 
20  EC  note  “Adding  employment  indicators  to  the  MIP  scoreboard  to  better  capture  employment  and  social 
developments”, Sept 2015. 
21 EC Technical note “Envisaged revision of selected auxiliary indicators of the MIP scoreboard”, Sept 2018. 

34