REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION Austria, Finland Report prepared in accordance with Article 126(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union
Date: 2024-11-26
Institutions: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission
Subjects: Austria, Finland, budget deficit, budget policy, budgetary control, economic reform, fiscal policy, gross domestic product, macroeconomics, public debt, stability pact, structural adjustment

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 26.11.2024  COM(2024) 959 final  REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION Austria, Finland  Report prepared in accordance with Article 126(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union  
 
 
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION 

Austria, Finland 

Report prepared in accordance with Article 126(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of 
the European Union 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
1.  INTRODUCTION 

Article 126 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union  (TFEU) lays down the 
excessive deficit procedure. That procedure is further set out in Council Regulation (EC) No 
1467/97 on speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure1, 
which is part of the Stability and Growth Pact. In accordance with Article 126(3) TFEU, this 
report assesses the situation of Member States vis-à-vis the deficit criterion. The format of this 
report, as in previous vintages, helps in the comparability of the several cases, while the case 
of each Member State is considered on its own merits.  

Regulation (EU) 2024/1264 amending Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 entered into force on 30 
April  2024.  This  amending  Regulation  is  part  of  a  package  together  with  Regulation  (EU) 
2024/12632  and  Council  Directive  (EU)  2024/12653.  Together,  these  three  acts  reform  the 
economic governance framework of the Union. The objectives of the reformed framework are 
public  debt  sustainability,  and  sustainable  and  inclusive  growth  through  reforms  and 
investments.  The  reformed  framework  also  promotes  national  ownership,  and  has  a  greater 
medium-term  focus,  combined  with  a  more  effective  and  coherent  enforcement.  The  latest 
amendment to Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 has essentially kept unchanged the assessment of 
compliance with the deficit criterion. Differently, the assessment of compliance with the debt 
criterion has been substantially modified (see below). 

The previous report under Article 126(3) TFEU was adopted on 19 June 2024, in the context 
of the European Semester 2024 Spring Package. In that report4, the Commission concluded 
with  its intention to propose the opening  of excessive deficit procedures for seven Member 
States: Belgium, France, Italy, Hungary, Malta, Poland and Slovakia due to non-compliance 
with  the  deficit  criterion.  Subsequently,  upon  a Commission    recommendation,  the  Council 
decided on the existence of excessive deficits in those Member States5,6. The report of 19 June 
2024  also  discussed  the  cases  of  Czechia,  Estonia,  Spain,  Slovenia  and  Finland,  but  the 
Commission  did  not  recommend  excessive  deficit  procedures  for  those  Member  States. 
However the Commission stated its intention to monitor the budgetary developments and to re-
assess the situation in autumn for some Member States. 

The  present  report  examines  in  detail  the  situation  of  those  Member  States  for  which  the 
reporting of government deficit and debt levels under Council Regulation (EU) No 479/2009, 

1  

2  

3  

4  
5  

6  

frameworks  of 

Council Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 on speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive 
deficit procedure (OJ L 209, 2.8.1997) as last amended by Council Regulation (EU) 2024/1264 of 29 
April 2024 (OJ L, 2024/1264, 30.4.2024, ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1264/oj). 
Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263  of  the  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  29  April  2024  on  the  effective 
coordination of economic policies and on multilateral budgetary surveillance and repealing Regulation 
(EC) No 1466/97 (OJ L, 2024/1263, 30.4.2024, ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1263/oj). 
Council Directive (EU) 2024/1265 of 29 April 2024 amending Directive 2011/85/EU on requirements 
for  budgetary 
(OJ  L,  2024/1265,  30.4.2024,  ELI: 
http://data.europa.eu/eli/dir/2024/1265/oj). 
COM(2024) 598 final. 
OJ  L,  1.8.2024,  ELI:  FR:  https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dec/2024/2122/oj  HU:  https://eur-
lex.europa.eu/eli/dec/2024/2123/oj  IT:  https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dec/2024/2124/oj  BE:  https://eur-
lex.europa.eu/eli/dec/2024/2125/oj  MT:  https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dec/2024/2128/oj  SK:  https://eur-
lex.europa.eu/eli/dec/2024/2129/oj PL: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dec/2024/2133/oj. 
Romania is also in a situation of excessive deficit (Council Decision (EU) 2020/509 of 3 April 2020 
http://data.europa.eu/eli/dec/2020/509/oj). In July, the Council decided that no effective action has been 
taken in response to the Council Recommendation of 18 June 2021 (Council Decision (EU) 2024/2130 
of 26 July 2024, ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/dec/2024/2130/oj). 

the  Member  States 

2 

 
 
and the European Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast7, indicate relevant changes compared to 
the figures that were available in spring.  

The deficit and debt criteria 

The deficit criterion is fulfilled if the actual general government deficit for the previous year 
(2023) and planned deficit for the current year (2024) do not exceed 3% of GDP. If either does, 
the Commission examines whether the deficit ratio has declined substantially and continuously, 
and comes close to the reference value. It also examines whether the deficit in excess over the 
reference value is exceptional and temporary, and remains close to the reference value (section 
2).  Relevant  factors  are  to  be  considered  by  the  Commission  and  the  Council  in  the  steps 
leading to the decision on the existence of an excessive deficit, if either i) the government debt 
does not exceed 60% of GDP, or ii) if the debt exceeds 60% of GDP, but the deficit is close to 
3% of GDP and the excess over it is temporary (section 4).  

According to the Treaty, the debt criterion is fulfilled if the general government gross debt 
does not exceed 60% of GDP, unless the ratio is sufficiently diminishing and approaching the 
reference value at a satisfactory pace. According to Article 2(2) of Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 
(as  amended),  the  debt-to-GDP  ratio  shall  be  considered  sufficiently  diminishing  and 
approaching the reference value at a satisfactory pace if the Member State concerned respects 
its  net  expenditure8  path  as  set  by  the  Council  under  Articles  17  or  19  of  Regulation  (EU) 
2024/1263. Since the Council has not yet set a net expenditure path for any Member State, the 
debt criterion cannot be fully assessed at this stage9.  

Main data underlying and motivating this report 

In the assessment of the deficit criterion, the present report concerns those Member States for 
which the actual 2023 deficit ratio provided by Eurostat,10 or the planned deficit ratio for 2024, 
as reported by Member States to Eurostat in the context of the Autumn 2024 notification11, 
exceeds 3% of GDP  and for which  relevant  changes  are  registered  compared to  the figures 
available in spring.12 Moreover, the assessment of compliance with the deficit criterion also 
considers the European Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast13. This report also compares the 
government deficit with government investment expenditure and takes into account all other 
relevant factors, in accordance with Article 2 of Regulation (EC) No 1467/97. 

7  

8   

9  
10  

11  

12  
13  

European Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast (European Economy Institutional Paper 296, November 
2024). 
According  to  Article  2(2)  of  Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263,  'net  expenditure'  means  government 
expenditure net of interest expenditure, discretionary revenue measures, expenditure on programmes of 
the  Union  fully  matched  by  revenue  from  Union  funds,  national  expenditure  on  co-financing  of 
programmes funded by the Union, cyclical elements of unemployment benefit expenditure, and one-offs 
and other temporary measures. 
Figures on general government debt-to-GDP ratio are presented in section 3.  
See  Eurostat  Euro  indicators  of  22  October  2024 (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-euro-
indicators/w/2-22102024-AP), according to Article 14 of Council Regulation  (EC) No 479/2009. 
The  complete  set  of 
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/government-finance-statistics/excessive-deficit-procedure/edp-
notification-tables. 
Member States currently under excessive deficit procedure are not concerned by the present report. 
Unless stated otherwise, the source for the figures for 2024, 2025 and 2026 provided in this report is the 
European Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast. 

to  Eurostat  by  Member  States 

is  available  at: 

reported 

tables 

3 

 
 
 
 
Based on the data published by Eurostat on 22 October 2024 (see Table 1), the report assesses 
compliance with the deficit criterion in Austria and Finland. Specifically, Austria and Finland 
plan their government deficits to exceed 3% of GDP in 2024. These planned deficits for 2024 
are therefore prima facie evidence of the existence of excessive deficits in those two Member 
States.  

This report does not elaborate on the Member States already discussed in detail in the 19 June 
2024 report under article 126(3), for which the Commission and the Council did not conclude 
on the existence of excessive deficits, and for which there have not been changes in autumn 
compared to the figures available in spring that would justify a reassessment of the situation. 
These  Member  States  are  Czechia14,  Estonia15,  Spain16  and  Slovenia17.  The  Commission 
Communication  of 26 November 202418 provides  a more detailed update  on these Member 
States. 

As indicated above, the debt criterion cannot be fully assessed at this stage in accordance with 
the criteria of the new framework. For the data on the general government gross debt ratio-to-
GDP, see Table 3. 

14  

15  

16  

17  

18  

Based on the autumn notification and on the European Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast, there are no 
changes compared to the situation in spring that would justify a detailed discussion  of Czechia in the 
present report. 
Based  on  the  autumn  notification  and  on  the  European  Commission  Autumn  2024  Forecast,  the 
budgetary  situation  of  Estonia  has  improved  compared  to  spring.  Therefore,  a  detailed  discussion  of 
Estonia in the present report does not seem justified. 
Based on the autumn notification and the European Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast, the conclusion 
reached in spring for Spain remains valid. Therefore, a detailed discussion of Spain in the present report 
does not seem justified.  
Based  on  the  autumn  notification  and  on  the  European  Commission  Autumn  2024  Forecast,  the 
budgetary situation has improved compared to spring. Therefore, a detailed discussion of Slovenia in the 
present report does not seem justified. 
Communication from the Commission to the Europen Parliament, the Council and the European Central 
Bank  “2025  European  Semester:  bringing  the  new  economic  governance  framework  to  life”  (COM 
(2024) 705 final of 26.11.2024). 

4 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 1 - Member States’ position vis-à-vis the deficit and debt reference values 

Actual deficit 
not exceeding (✓) / 
exceeding () 
3% of GDP in 2023 

Planned deficit 
not exceeding (✓) /  
exceeding () 
3% of GDP in 2024 

Debt ratio  
not exceeding (✓) / 
exceeding () 60% 
of GDP at end-2023 

Member States assessed in this report 
Austria 
Finland 

✓ 
✓ 

 
 

 
 

Member States not considered in this report 
Belgium* 

Bulgaria 

Czechia*** 

Denmark 

Germany 
Estonia*** 

Ireland 

Greece 
Spain*** 
France* 

Croatia 
Italy* 

Cyprus 

Latvia 

Lithuania 

Luxembourg 
Hungary* 
Malta* 

Netherlands 
Poland* 

Portugal 
Romania** 
Slovenia*** 
Slovakia* 

 
✓ 
 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
 
 
✓ 
 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
 
 
✓ 
 
✓ 
 
✓ 
 
✓ 

 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
 
✓ 
✓ 
 
 
 
 
 
 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
 
✓ 
 
✓ 
✓ 

 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
-§ 
✓ 
 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
 
 
✓ 
 
✓ 
 
✓ 
 
✓ 

5 

Sweden 
Source:  Eurostat  (press  release  22  October  2024  and  autumn  2024  fiscal  notification).  (*)  In  excessive  deficit 
procedure since July 2024. (**) In excessive deficit procedure since April 2020. (***) Not in excessive deficit and not 
discussed in this report since there have been no changes compared to the information available for the report of 19 
June 2024 that would justfy a reassessment of the situation.  §France did not submit a planned deficit for 2024 to 
Eurostat in the context of the autumn 2024 fiscal notification. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.  GENERAL GOVERNMENT BALANCE  

Austria  registered  a  government  deficit  of  2.6%  of  GDP  in  2023,  whereas  in  Finland  it 
amounted to 3.0% of GDP (see Table 2). 
Both Member States plan deficits for 2024 exceeding 3% of GDP19. Specifically, for Austria, 
the planned deficit for 2024 amounts to 3.3% of GDP, and therefore it is above but close to the 
reference  value.  However,  the  European  Commission  Autumn  2024  Forecast  projects  the 
deficit  at  3.6%  of  GDP,  therefore  above  and  not  close  to  the  reference  value.  The  main 
differences  between  both  sets  of  projections  reflect  a  combination  of  higher  government 
expenditure linked to  social spending  and lower  government  revenues  in  the Commission’s 
forecast. 

For Finland, the planned deficit for 2024 amounts to 3.7% of GDP (the same value is projected 
in the European Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast), and therefore it is above and not close 
to the reference value.  

According to  the European Commission  Autumn 2024 Forecast,  the government  deficit for 
Austria  is  projected  to  continue  exceeding  3%  of  GDP  in  2025  and  in  2026.  As  usual,  the 
Commission forecasts have been prepared on the basis of the current policies. In the case of 
Austria, this means that the forecast does not consider a budget for 2025, the latter having been 
delayed by the Austrian electoral cycle. Since for Austria the breach of the 3% reference value 
is projected to continue over the forecast horizon to 2026, the deficit in excess is expected to 
be not temporary.  

Differently, the government deficit in Finland is presently projected not to exceed the reference 
value in 2025 and 2026, and therefore the deficit in excess is expected to be temporary. 

In both Member States, the planned deficit in excess over the reference value has been impacted 
by the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions, that is a prolonged and sizeable recession in 
2023 and 2024.  

In Austria, real GDP decreased by 1.0% in 2023 and is forecast to further decrease by 0.6% in 
2024. Furthermore, Austria has to bear the budgetary impact of recent floods. 

In Finland, real GDP decreased by 1.2% in 2023 and is forecast to further decrease by 0.3% in 
2024.20 In addition, in Finland the worsening security environment due to the Russia’s war of 
aggression against Ukraine has a bearing on the economy with repercussion to public finances. 

Based  on  the  above,  the  deficits  in  excess  of  the  reference  value  can  be  considered  as 
exceptional for both Member States. 

In sum, this analysis suggests that the deficit criterion is not fulfilled by these two Member 
States (Austria and Finland) before the consideration of the relevant factors. 

19  
20  

As reported to Eurostat in the context of the autumn 2024 fiscal notification. 
In the Report under 126(3) of June 2024, the situation of Finland was considered non exceptional. At 
that time the expectation was of a stagnation of real economic activity in 2024; this has now been revised 
to a negative growth rate of 0.3% in 2024, or cumulative -1.5% in 2023-2024. 

6 

 
 
 
Table 2 - General government balance 

Percentage of GDP 

Autumn 
fiscal 
notification  

European Commission 
Autumn 2024 Forecast 

2020 

2021 

2022 

2023 

2024 

2024 

2025 

2026 

Member States assessed in this report 

Austria 

Finland 

-8.2 

-5.5 

-5.7 

-2.7 

-3.3 

-0.2 

Member States not considered in this report 

Belgium* 

Bulgaria 

Czechia*** 

Denmark 

Germany 

Estonia*** 

Ireland 

Greece 

Spain*** 

France* 

Croatia 

Italy* 

Cyprus 

Latvia 

Lithuania 

Luxembourg 

Hungary* 

Malta* 

Netherlands 

Poland* 

Portugal 

Romania** 

Slovenia*** 

Slovakia* 

Sweden 

-9.0 

-3.8 

-5.6 

0.4 

-4.4 

-5.4 

-4.9 

-9.6 

-9.9 

-8.9 

-7.2 

-9.4 

-5.6 

-4.1 

-6.3 

-3.1 

-7.5 

-8.7 

-3.6 

-6.9 

-5.8 

-9.2 

-7.7 

-5.3 

-3.2 

-5.4 

-3.9 

-5.0 

4.1 

-3.2 

-2.6 

-1.4 

-6.9 

-6.7 

-6.6 

-2.6 

-8.9 

-1.6 

-7.2 

-1.1 

1.0 

-7.1 

-7.0 

-2.2 

-1.7 

-2.8 

-7.1 

-4.6 

-5.1 

-0.1 

-3.6 

-2.9 

-3.1 

3.4 

-2.1 

-1.1 

1.7 

-2.5 

-4.6 

-4.7 

0.1 

-8.1 

2.6 

-4.9 

-0.7 

0.2 

-6.2 

-5.2 

0.0 

-3.4 

-0.3 

-6.4 

-3.0 

-1.7 

1.0 

-2.6 

-3.0 

-4.2 

-2.0 

-3.8 

3.3 

-2.6 

-2.8 

1.5 

-1.3 

-3.5 

-5.5 

-0.9 

-7.2 

2.0 

-2.4 

-0.7 

-0.7 

-6.7 

-4.5 

-0.4 

-5.3 

1.2 

-6.5 

-2.6 

-5.2 

-0.6 

-3.3 

-3.7 

-4.5 

-3.0 

-2.8 

1.9 

-2.4 

-3.0 

4.5 

-1.2 

-3.0 

 -§  

-2.6 

-3.8 

3.7 

-2.9 

-2.9 

-1.2 

-4.5 

-4.0 

-1.6 

-5.7 

0.3 

-7.0 

-2.9 

-5.9 

-1.7 

-3.6 

-3.7 

-4.6 

-2.6 

-2.5 

2.3 

-2.2 

-3.0 

4.4 

-0.6 

-3.0 

-6.2 

-2.1 

-3.8 

3.5 

-2.8 

-2.0 

-0.6 

-5.4 

-4.0 

-0.2 

-5.8 

0.6 

-8.0 

-2.4 

-5.8 

-1.9 

-3.7 

-3.0 

-4.9 

-2.8 

-2.3 

1.5 

-2.0 

-3.0 

1.4 

-0.1 

-2.6 

-5.3 

-2.1 

-3.4 

2.7 

-3.2 

-2.4 

-0.8 

-4.6 

-3.5 

-1.9 

-5.6 

0.4 

-7.9 

-2.1 

-4.7 

-1.4 

-3.5 

-2.5 

-5.3 

-2.8 

-1.9 

0.9 

-1.8 

-3.0 

1.3 

0.2 

-2.7 

-5.4 

-1.9 

-2.9 

2.7 

-3.2 

-2.6 

-0.6 

-4.1 

-3.1 

-2.4 

-5.3 

0.3 

-7.9 

-2.1 

-4.1 

-0.3 

Source: Eurostat (data from 2020 to 2023, and 2024 fiscal notification) and European Commission Autumn 2024 
Forecast (data for 2024, 2025 and 2026). (*) In excessive deficit procedure since July 2024. (**) In excessive deficit 
procedure since April 2020. (***) Not in excessive deficit and not discussed in this report since there have been no 
relevant changes compared to the information available for the report of 19 June 2024.  §France did not submit a 
planned deficit for 2024 to Eurostat in the context of the autumn 2024 fiscal notification. 

7 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3.  GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT 

In both Austria and Finland, the general government gross debt at end-2023 exceeded 60% of 
GDP, and in both cases the government debt-to-GDP ratio in 2023 increased compared to the 
previous year. Moreover, based on the European Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast, the debt-
to-GDP ratio is projected to increase for both Member States up to 2026. 

Table 3 – General government debt 

Percentage of GDP 

2020 

2021 

2022 

2023 

Member States assessed in this report 

Autumn 
fiscal 
notification  
2024 

European Commission 
Autumn 2024 Forecast 

2024 

2025 

2026 

Austria 

Finland 

83.2 

75.4 

82.4 

73.2 

78.4 

74.0 

78.6 

77.1 

79.3 

81.7 

79.5 

82.6 

80.8 

84.7 

81.8 

85.3 

Member States not considered in this report 

111.2 

108.4 

102.6 

103.1 

103.4 

103.4 

105.1 

107.2 

Belgium 

Bulgaria 

Czechia*** 

Denmark 

Germany 

Estonia*** 

Ireland 

Greece 

Spain*** 

France 

Croatia 

Italy 

Cyprus 

Latvia 

Lithuania 

24.4 

36.9 

46.3 

68.0 

19.1 

57.0 

209.4 

119.3 

114.8 

86.5 

154.3 

113.6 

44.0 

45.9 

Luxembourg 

24.5 

Hungary 

Malta 

Netherlands 

Poland 

78.7 

48.7 

53.3 

56.6 

23.8 

40.7 

40.5 

68.1 

18.4 

52.6 

197.3 

115.7 

112.7 

78.2 

22.5 

42.5 

34.1 

65.0 

19.1 

43.1 

177.0 

109.5 

111.2 

68.5 

22.9 

42.4 

33.6 

62.9 

20.2 

43.3 

163.9 

105.1 

109.9 

61.8 

145.7 

138.3 

134.8 

96.5 

45.9 

43.3 

24.4 

76.2 

49.6 

50.4 

53.0 

81.0 

44.4 

38.1 

24.6 

73.8 

49.4 

48.3 

48.8 

73.6 

45.0 

37.3 

25.5 

73.4 

47.4 

45.1 

49.7 

97.9 

48.9 

68.4 

56.1 

24.9 

44.1 

32.8 

63.4 

23.3 

41.4 

153.6 

102.3 

 -  

58.9 

135.8 

65.2 

45.2 

39.4 

27.5 

73.2 

49.2 

44.2 

54.6 

94.5 

51.3 

67.4 

58.6 

24.5 

43.4 

31.0 

63.0 

23.2 

41.6 

153.1 

102.3 

112.7 

57.3 

23.1 

44.4 

29.3 

63.2 

24.2 

38.3 

146.8 

101.3 

115.3 

56.0 

24.5 

44.8 

28.3 

62.8 

25.5 

36.8 

142.7 

101.1 

117.1 

56.0 

136.6 

138.2 

139.3 

66.4 

48.1 

38.3 

27.5 

74.5 

49.8 

43.3 

54.7 

95.7 

52.2 

67.1 

58.9 

61.4 

50.3 

41.0 

27.6 

74.5 

50.4 

44.3 

58.9 

92.9 

56.1 

64.4 

59.8 

56.7 

51.6 

44.6 

27.5 

73.8 

50.2 

46.6 

62.4 

90.5 

59.7 

63.1 

61.8 

Portugal 

134.1 

123.9 

111.2 

Romania 

Slovenia*** 

Slovakia 

46.6 

80.2 

58.4 

48.3 

74.8 

60.2 

47.9 

72.7 

57.7 

40.1 

Sweden 
31.7 
31.5 
Source: Eurostat (data from 2020 to 2023 and 2024 fiscal notification) and  European  Commission Autumn 2024 
Forecast (data for 2024, 2025 and 2026). (*) In excessive deficit procedure since July 2024. (**) In excessive deficit 
procedure since 2020. (***) Not in excessive deficit and not discussed in this report since there have been no relevant 

36.7 

33.6 

33.0 

32.8 

32.7 

8 

 
 
 
 
 
  
 
changes compared to the information available for the report of 19 June 2024. §France did not submit planned debt 
for 2024 to Eurostat in the context of the autumn 2024 fiscal notification. 

4.  RELEVANT FACTORS WHEN ASSESSING COMPLIANCE WITH THE DEFICIT CRITERION  

Article 126(3) of the Treaty provides that, for each Member State, this report shall “take into 
account whether the government deficit exceeds government investment expenditure and take 
into account all other relevant factors, including the medium-term economic and budgetary 
position of the Member State”.  

Those factors are further clarified in Article 2(3) of Regulation (EC) No 1467/97, as amended,  
and refer to:  

a)  the  medium-term  debt  position,  i.e.,  the  degree  of  public  debt  challenges,  the 
evolution of the government debt position and its financing, and the related risk factors, 
in  particular  the  maturity  structure,  the  currency  denomination  of  the  debt  and 
contingent  liabilities,  including  any  implicit  liabilities  related  to  ageing  and  private 
debt; 

b) the medium-term budgetary position, including, in particular, the size of the actual 
deviation from the net expenditure path as set by the Council, in annual and cumulative 
terms as measured by the control account; 

c)  the  medium-term  economic  position,  including  potential  growth,  inflation 
developments and cyclical developments compared to the assumptions underlying the 
net expenditure path as set by the Council; 

d) the implementation of reforms and investments, including in particular policies to 
prevent and correct macroeconomic imbalances and policies to implement the common 
growth  and  employment  strategy  of  the  Union,  including  those  supported  by  the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), and the overall quality of public finances, in 
particular the effectiveness of national budgetary frameworks,  

e) the  increase  of  government  investment  in  defence,  where  applicable,  considering 
also the time of recording of military equipment expenditure. 

More specifically, the increase in government investment in defence has been included among 
the relevant factors, as a result of the reform of the economic governance framework.  

Article 2(3) of Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 provides also that “any other factors which, in the 
opinion  of  the  Member  State  concerned,  are  relevant  in  order  to  comprehensively  assess 
compliance with the deficit and debt criteria and which the Member State has put forward to 
the  Council  and  the  Commission”  need  to  be  given  due  consideration  in  this  report.  
Furthermore, in accordance with Article 2(4) of Regulation (EC) No 1467/97,  the presence of 
substantial public debt challenges shall be considered as a key aggravating factor.  

As  regards  the  assessment  of  compliance  with  the  deficit  criterion,  Article  2(4)  of  Council 
Regulation (EC) 1467/97 further provides that the relevant factors can be taken into account 
by the Council and the Commission in the steps leading to the decision on the existence of an 
excessive deficit, but only when: 

a)  the government debt-to-GDP ratio does not exceed the 60% reference value, 

or 

b)  if  the  government  debt-to-GDP  ratio  exceeds  the  60%  reference  value,  a  double 
condition is met – i.e. that the deficit remains close to the reference value and that the 
excess over the reference value is temporary. 

9 

 
 
For both Member States considered in this report, the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds the 60% of 
GDP reference value. Moreover, neither in Austria nor in Finland the double condition is met.  

For Austria, the planned deficit-to-GDP ratio for 2024 is not close to 3% and the excess over 
the reference value is not temporary. Differently, for Finland, the planned deficit for 2024 is 
not close to 3% of GDP, but the excess over the reference value is temporary, as the deficit is 
forecast by the Commission not to exceed 3% of GDP over the forecast horizon, as from 2025. 

As a result, for both Austria and Finland relevant factors cannot be taken into account by the 
Council and the Commission in the subsequent steps leading to the decision on the existence 
of  an  excessive  deficit  (paragraphs  5  and  6  of  Article  126  TFEU).  However,  according  to 
established  practice  and  in  line  with  Article  2(4)  of  Council  Regulation  (EC)  1467/97,  the 
relevant factors are still discussed in the present report for each of the two Member States.  

4.1. CROSS-COUNTRY RELEVANT FACTORS 

The EU economy was faced with a series of formidable shocks in recent years. The COVID-
19 crisis gave rise to global supply-side disruptions as demand increased vigorously during the 
strong post-pandemic rebound. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine steepened the surge 
of energy prices, that had already started in 2021, and economic effects across Member States 
varied depending on the proximity to the region at war, the structure of energy markets and 
supply routes, as well as the structure of a Member State’s trade relations. HICP inflation was 
pushed to two-digit rates in October 2022 in the EU, with inflation in central and eastern Europe 
being markedly higher. This led to a sharp erosion of household purchasing power and a shift 
in consumer sentiment. These factors, in addition to the COVID-19 support and emergency 
energy support measures, played a role in budgetary developments of Member States, via e.g. 
automatic indexation mechanisms, increased expenditure for defence and border safety.  

Economic activity in the EU broadly stagnated in 2023, with GDP growth slowing down to 
0.4% in 2023 amid weak domestic demand and little support from the external environment. 
In the first quarter of 2024, the EU economy resumed growing. The expansion continued at 
subdued  yet  steady  pace  throughout  the  second  and  third  quarters,  amidst  further  abating 
inflationary pressures. The conditions for a mild acceleration of domestic demand appear in 
place, despite heightened uncertainty. Mounting risks associated to climate change also weigh 
on  the  outlook.  Within  an  increasingly  challenging  geopolitical  context,  the  conflict  in  the 
Middle East added to downside risks for the EU and global economy. Meanwhile, inflation has 
continued declining, decreasing from 9.2% in 2022 to 6.4% in 2023. According to the European 
Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast, EU real GDP growth is projected at 0.9% in 2024, and 
the  disinflation  process  is  set  to  be  even  sharper  compared  to  2023,  with  headline  inflation 
falling to 2.6% in 2024. 

The fall in the EU government deficit came to a halt in 2023 as economic activity weakened. 
After  a  sizeable  reduction  in  2021  and  2022  from  very  high  levels  in  2020,  the  general 
government deficit of the EU aggregate increased marginally to 3.5% of GDP in 2023. In 2024, 
it is set to reducing to 3.1% of GDP.  

At the end of 2023, the EU government debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 82.1% (from 83.9% at the 
end of 2022), around 9 pps. lower than the 91.2% peak recorded at the end of 2020. However, 
it  remains  around  3  pps.  above  the  pre-COVID-19  level.  According  to  the  European 
Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast, the debt ratio is projected at 82.4% of GDP in 2024.  

10 

 
 
After  a  sizeable  expansion  (around  3%  of  GDP)  in  2020-23,  the  fiscal  stance21  in  2024  is 
projected  to  be  contractionary,  close  to  ½%  of  GDP.  The  contractionary  stance  this  year  is 
driven by the phase-out of large subsidies to support private investment and somewhat lower 
expenditure  financed  by  the  EU  budget  (also  due  to  the  end  of  MFF  2014-2020  spending), 
whereas public investment financed by national budgets continues to provide an expansionary 
contribution.  

4.2. COUNTRY-SPECIFIC RELEVANT FACTORS  

This section provides an assessment of country-specific relevant factors for each of the two 
Member  States  concerned  by  this  report.  These  factors  include  the  medium-term 
macroeconomic outlook, the medium-term budgetary position (including public investment; 
see  Table  4),  the  medium-term  debt  position,  the  overall  quality  of  public  finances,  the 
implementation  of  reforms  and  investments  (including  policies  to  prevent  and  correct 
macroeconomic imbalances and to implement the common growth and employment strategy 
of the Union, including those supported by the RRF), the increase in government investment 
in defence, and any other relevant factors put forward by each Member State.   

Concerning the increase in government investment in defence, this report uses the breakdown 
of government expenditure that is based on national accounts definitions with respect to the 
Classification  of  the  Functions  of  Government  (COFOG)  for  defence  purposes.  However, 
COFOG data become available with a time lag and they are currently only available until 2022. 
Additional information and preliminary estimates on expenditure and/or investment in defence 
for 2023 and 2024 as presented in the country-specific sections have been provided by Member 
States, including in the context of the EDP notifications of October 2024. 

While  the  country-specific  sections  refer  to  key  information  on  the  medium-term 
macroeconomic position, including on the contributions to growth, and on the medium-term 
budgetary  and  debt  positions,  more  detail  on  the  macroeconomic  and  fiscal  outlook  can  be 
found in the European Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast.  

21  

The fiscal stance aims to assess the economic impulse stemming from fiscal policies, both those that are 
nationally financed and those that are financed by the EU budget. 

11 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4 - Public investment 

Percentage of GDP 

2020 

2021 

2022 

2023 

European Commission 
Autumn 2024 Forecast 
2024 

2025 

2026 

Member States assessed in this report 

Austria 

Finland 

3.3 

4.9 

3.6 

4.2 

3.5 

4.1 

Member States not considered in this report 

Belgium 

Bulgaria 

Czechia 

Denmark 

Germany 

Estonia 

Ireland 

Greece 

Spain 

France 

Croatia 

Italy 

Cyprus 

Latvia 

Lithuania 

Luxembourg 

Hungary 

Malta 

Netherlands 

Poland 

Portugal 

Romania 

Slovenia 

Slovakia 

Sweden 

2.8 

3.3 

4.7 

3.6 

3.0 

5.8 

2.3 

3.1 

2.6 

4.2 

5.6 

2.6 

2.9 

5.9 

4.5 

4.7 

6.4 

3.7 

3.6 

4.4 

2.3 

4.4 

4.1 

3.4 

5.4 

2.8 

2.7 

4.6 

3.2 

2.9 

5.8 

2.0 

3.6 

2.7 

4.1 

4.8 

2.8 

2.7 

5.6 

3.2 

4.1 

6.2 

3.7 

3.4 

4.1 

2.6 

4.1 

4.7 

3.0 

5.0 

2.7 

2.3 

4.5 

3.0 

2.8 

5.4 

2.0 

3.7 

2.7 

4.2 

4.0 

2.6 

2.4 

4.5 

3.2 

4.2 

5.3 

3.2 

3.2 

3.8 

2.4 

4.4 

5.5 

3.1 

5.1 

3.7 

4.0 

2.8 

3.8 

4.9 

3.1 

2.8 

6.6 

2.3 

3.9 

3.0 

4.3 

5.6 

3.2 

3.1 

5.6 

4.2 

4.7 

5.1 

3.5 

3.1 

5.1 

2.6 

5.4 

5.2 

3.6 

5.2 

3.7 

4.3 

3.1 

3.3 

4.7 

3.2 

3.0 

7.3 

2.5 

4.9 

3.0 

4.3 

5.7 

3.5 

2.9 

5.3 

3.9 

4.7 

4.4 

4.1 

3.1 

5.0 

3.1 

5.7 

5.2 

3.7 

5.4 

3.8 

4.8 

2.9 

3.6 

4.9 

3.3 

3.0 

8.1 

2.9 

4.5 

3.1 

4.2 

5.9 

3.8 

2.9 

6.2 

4.1 

4.9 

4.8 

3.8 

3.1 

5.0 

3.2 

6.1 

5.1 

4.6 

5.4 

3.8 

4.6 

2.9 

3.4 

4.6 

3.3 

3.0 

8.5 

3.0 

3.9 

3.2 

4.1 

5.8 

3.7 

2.7 

6.1 

3.7 

4.7 

5.0 

3.8 

3.2 

5.2 

3.5 

6.6 

5.1 

4.2 

5.6 

Source: Eurostat and European Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast. 

12 

 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4.2.1. AUSTRIA 

Medium-term  macroeconomic  position.  In  2023,  rising  energy  costs,  high  inflation  and 
worsening financing conditions weighed on private consumption and drove down investments. 
As a result, real GDP decreased by 1%. The contraction in 2024 is set to be mainly driven by 
a  decline  in  investments  and  exports.  Moreover,  the  weakness  of  private  consumption 
continues to hold back growth. The construction sector – after many years of strong growth – 
has  experienced  a  precipitous  decline  in  2023  and  2024.  However,  going  forward,  private 
consumption is expected to gain strength due to significant increases in real wages. Investments 
and exports  are projected to  recover thanks to  declining  interest  rates  and energy costs  and 
stronger external demand from Austria’s neighbouring countries.  

Medium-term budgetary  position, including investment. The general  government  deficit 
stood  at  2.6%  of  GDP  in  2023.  In  the  European  Commission  Autumn  2024  Forecast,  it  is 
projected to amount to 3.6% in 2024, 3.7% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026. Government investment 
stood at 3.6% of GDP in 2021 and at 3.5% in 2022, and increased slightly to 3.7% in 2023. It 
is projected to remain at 3.7% of GDP in 2024 and to marginally increase to 3.8% in 2025 and 
2026, being larger than the government deficit since 2022.  

The fiscal stance in Austria was neutral in 2023. In the same year, the net nationally financed 
primary current expenditure provided an expansionary contribution to the fiscal stance by 0.4% 
of GDP. According to the European Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast, in 2024, the fiscal 
stance  is  projected  to  be  expansionary  by  0.6%  of  GDP,  with  a  contribution  from  the  net 
nationally financed primary current expenditure expansionary by 0.6% of GDP, before turning 
contractionary  by  0.2%  of  GDP  in  2025,  when  the  net  nationally  financed  primary  current 
expenditure is projected to contribute by 0.1% of GDP 

Debt challenges and medium-term debt position. Government debt decreased from 83.2% 
of GDP at the end of 2020 to 82.4% at the end of 2021, and then further to 78.4% in 2022. In 
2023 it marginally increased to 78.6% of GDP. The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase 
further to 79.5% of GDP at the end of 2024, 80.8% in 2025 and 81.8% at the end of 2026. 

Overall, the debt sustainability analysis indicates high risks over the medium term. According 
to the baseline 10-year projection, the general government debt ratio would rise continuously 
to about 98% of GDP in 203522. The baseline debt trajectory is sensitive to macroeconomic 
shocks.  According  to  the  stochastic  projections,  which  simulate  a  large  range  of  possible 
temporary shocks to macroeconomic variables, there is a high likelihood that the debt ratio in 
2029 will be higher than in 2024. Other factors need to be taken into account for an overall 
assessment of debt sustainability. On the one hand, risk-increasing factors are related to the 
recent increase in interest rates and the fact that around 60% of the debt is held by non-residents. 
In  addition,  some  contingent  liability  risks  stem  from  the  private  sector,  including  via  the 
possible  materialisation  of  state  guarantees.  While  the  capitalisation  of  Austrian  banks  has 
improved in recent years, the largest banks still have lower capital buffers than their euro area 
peers. On the other hand, risk-mitigating factors include the lengthening of debt maturity in 
recent years and the large share of debt denominated in euro. In addition, structural reforms 
and  investments  under  the  RRF,  if  fully  implemented,  will  have  a  positive  impact  on  GDP 
growth in the coming years. The implementation of reforms and investments included in the 
Recovery and Resilience Plan of Austria is underway. However, timely completion requires 
increased efforts. 

National budgetary framework. Austria is one of five Member States with two independent 
fiscal institutions, WIFO and the Fiskalrat. The former is a well-established research institution 
that provides the macroeconomic forecast underlying the government’s  budgetary planning. 
The latter primarily performs both ex ante and ex post monitoring of compliance with national 

13 

 
and EU fiscal rules, which are reported twice a year. Its assessment of the budgetary forecast 
takes  place  only  after  the  adoption  of  the  budget  by  parliament.  Moreover,  the  Fiskalrat 
publishes recommendations on fiscal policy and medium-term budget orientation.  

Increase  in  government  investment  in  defence.  Based  on  COFOG  data  published  by 
Eurostat, total general government expenditure on defence amounted to 0.6% of GDP in 2022. 
Of  this,  government  investment  in  defence  represented  0.1%  of  GDP  in  2022,  remaining 
unchanged  compared  to  2019.  According  to  the  information  provided  by  the  Austrian 
authorities, total defence expenditure is assumed to increase by 0.14% of GDP in 2024, while 
the authorities did not provide a breakdown between investment and other expenditure. 

Other factors put forward by the Member State.  On 30 October 2024, Austria provided  
additional relevant  factors not  mentioned above, namely the impact of substantial  floods in 
September 2024. Austria estimated the damage caused by the floods at around 0.5% of GDP, 
with direct fiscal impact of around 0.1% of GDP in 2024 (included in the planned deficit) and 
a  similar  amount  in  2025.  Furthermore,  the  Austrian  authorities  put  forward  that  the  two 
consecutive years of recession currently being experienced by Austria warrant the activation 
of the national escape clause under the new EU fiscal rules. 

22  

This is based on a no-fiscal-policy-change assumption keeping the structural primary balance unchanged 
at its 2025 level. 

14 

 
 
4.2.2.  FINLAND 

Medium-term macroeconomic position. Real GDP contracted by 1.2% in 2023 as increases 
in prices and interest rates weighed on consumption and, particularly, on investment. Output is 
projected to decline further in 2024 (by 0.3%) and then to increase again in 2025 and 2026 as 
domestic and external demand are projected to pick up (by 1.5% and 1.6% respectively). The 
decrease  in  GDP  in  2024  is  set  to  be  mainly  driven  by  a  prolonged  contraction  of  the 
construction sector and a decline in exports of goods.  

Medium-term budgetary position, including investment. The government deficit decreased 
from 2.7% of GDP in 2021 to 0.2% in 2022, before rising to 3.0% in 2023. It is projected to be 
3.7% in 2024, 3.0% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. Government investment stood at 4.2% of GDP 
in  2021  and  4.1%  in  2022,  and  declined  slightly  further  to  4.0%  in  2023.  It  is  projected  to 
increase to 4.3% of GDP in 2024 and to 4.8% in 2025, before marginally declining to 4.6% in 
2026, being larger than the government deficit from 2021.  

In 2023, the fiscal stance in Finland was expansionary by 1.7% of GDP. In the same year, the 
net nationally financed primary current expenditure provided an expansionary contribution to 
the  fiscal  stance  by  1.6%  of  GDP.  According  to  the  European  Commission  Autumn  2024 
Forecast, in 2024, the fiscal stance is projected to be expansionary by 0.7% of GDP, with a 
contribution from the net nationally financed net primary current expenditure expansionary by 
0.6% of GDP. Finally, the fiscal stance is set to be contractionary by 0.7% of GDP in 2025, 
when the net nationally financed primary current expenditure is projected to contribute by 1.2% 
of GDP. 

On  10  October  2024,  Finland  submitted  its  first  medium-term  fiscal-structural  plan,  in 
accordance with Regulation (EU) 2024/1263. The Commission has assessed that plan and is 
adopting a Recommendation for a Council Recommendation  setting the net expenditure for 
Finland  and  endorsing  the  set  of  reform  and  investment  commitments  underpinning  an 
extension of the adjustment period on the same day as this Report23.  

Debt challenges and medium-term debt position. Government debt decreased from 75.4% 
of GDP at the end of 2020 to 73.2% at the end of 2021, and then gradually increased, standing 
at 74.0% of GDP at the end of 2022 and at 77.1% of GDP at the end of 2023. The debt-to-GDP 
ratio is projected to further increase to 82.6% at the end of 2024, 84.7% in 2025 up to 85.3% 
at the end of 2026.  

Overall, the debt sustainability analysis indicates high risks over the medium term. According 
to the baseline 10-year projection, the general government debt ratio would rise continuously 
to about 97% of GDP in 203524. The baseline debt trajectory is sensitive to macroeconomic 
shocks.  According  to  the  stochastic  projections,  which  simulate  a  large  range  of  possible 
temporary shocks to macroeconomic variables, there is a high likelihood that the debt ratio in 
2029 will be higher than in 2024. Other factors need to be taken into account for an overall 
assessment of debt sustainability. On the one hand, risk-increasing factors are related to the 
recent increase in interest rates, the share of short-term government debt and risks from the real 
estate  and  the  housing  markets.  On  the  other  hand,  risk-mitigating  factors  include  the 
lengthening  of  debt  maturity  in  recent  years,  relatively  stable  financing  sources  (with  a 
diversified and large investor base) and the very large share of debt denominated in euro. In 
addition, structural reforms and investments under the RRF, if fully implemented, will have a 
positive  impact  on  GDP  growth  in  the  coming  years.  The  implementation  of  reforms  and 
investments included in the Recovery and Resilience Plan of Finland is underway, however 
timely completion requires increased efforts.   

15 

 
National budgetary framework. The National Audit Office of Finland (NAOF) is a national 
body in charge of ensuring that state funds are used cost-effectively and in line with laws and 
regulations. NAOF is involved in the Parliament’s General Government Fiscal Plan, part of the 
domestic  medium-term  budgetary  framework,  and  reports  on  government  compliance  with 
national and European fiscal rules twice a year but is not involved in the triggering of escape 
clauses. In case of deviation, the Ministry of Finance must make public the corrective measures 
it takes. The NAOF also assesses the government macroeconomic and budgetary forecasts.  

Increase  in  government  investment  in  defence.  Based  on  COFOG  data  published  by 
Eurostat, total general government expenditure in defence amounted to 1.3% of GDP in 2022. 
Of this, government investment in defence represented 0.3% of GDP in 2022, which was 0.1 
percentage point higher than in 2019. According to estimates provided by Finland, defence-
related  investment  would  increase  by  about  0.5%  of  GDP  in  2024,  reflecting  substantial 
defence-related investment as well as replacement investment into defence material due to the 
assistance to Ukraine; however, according to Finland, statistical recording of this expenditure 
is still open and part of these investments, while comparable to defence, is likely to be included 
in another COFOG division (notably “Public order and safety”). According to the information 
provided by Finland, defence investments would increase further by 0.4% of GDP in 2025.  

Other factors put forward by the Member State.  On 30 October 2024, Finland provided 
additional  relevant  factors  not  mentioned  above,  namely  the  additional  fiscal  consolidation 
measures decided by the government in spring 2024 amounting to 1% of GDP. In addition, the 
authorities explained that the level of unemployment insurance contributions was lowered by 
EUR 1.4 billion or 0.5% of GDP as of 2024 because according to the forecast the Employment 
Fund’s  cyclical  buffer  fund  would  have  otherwise  exceeded  its  limit  determined  by  the 
legislation. Finally, referring to the impact of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, 
the Finnish authorities confirmed their intention to request the activation of the national escape 
clause under the new EU fiscal rules. 

5.  CONCLUSIONS 

Austria had a government deficit not exceeding the 3% of GDP reference value in 2023, but 
in the context of the autumn 2024 fiscal notification reported to Eurostat a planned deficit above 
but  close  to  3%  of  GDP  for  2024.  According  to  the  European  Commission  Autumn  2024 
Forecast the 2024 deficit is projected above and not close to 3% of GDP.  

Finland had a government deficit not exceeding the reference value in 2023, but in the context 
of the autumn 2024 fiscal notification reported to Eurostat a planned deficit above and not close 
to 3% of GDP in 2024; the Commission’s forecast likewise projects a deficit above and not 
close to 3% of GDP for 2024. 

According to the Commission’s Autumn 2024 Forecast, the government deficit in Austria is 
projected to  clearly  exceed 3% of GDP over the forecast  horizon, until  2026. As usual,  the 
Commission forecasts have been prepared on the basis of the current policies. For Austria, the 
forecast does not consider a budget for 2025 since the latter has been delayed by the Austrian 

23  

24  

Commission  Recommendation  for  a  Council  Recommendation  endorsing  the  national  medium-term 
fiscal-structural plan of Finland, 26.11.2024, COM(2024) 715 final. 
This is based on a no-fiscal-policy-change assumption keeping the structural primary balance unchanged 
at its 2025 level. 

16 

 
 
 
electoral cycle. On this basis, the deficit in excess of the reference value is assessed to be not 
temporary for Austria. 

For  Finland,  the  Commission’s  forecast  indicates  that  the  government  deficit  in  2025  (and 
2026) is not likely to exceed the reference value, and therefore the excess deficit is assessed as 
temporary. 

For  both  Member  States,  the  planned  deficit  in  excess  over  the  reference  value  has  been 
impacted  by  unfavourable  macroeconomic  conditions:  in  both  cases,  real  GDP  contracted 
significantly in 2023 and 2024, and the planned deficit in excess over the reference value could 
therefore be considered as exceptional.  

In sum, this analysis suggests that the deficit criterion is not fulfilled by the two Member States 
before the consideration of the relevant factors. 

In both Member States, government debt exceeds the 60% of GDP reference value while the 
double  condition  necessary  for  relevant  factors  to  be  taken  into  account  (closeness  and 
temporariness) is  not  met.  Therefore,  for the two Member States relevant factors  cannot  be 
taken into account by the Council and the Commission in the steps leading to the decision on 
the existence of an excessive deficit (paragraphs 5 and 6 of Article 126 TFEU). 

In the light of this assessment, and after considering the opinion of the Economic and Financial 
Committee  as  established  under  Article  126(4)  TFEU,  the  Commission  will  consider 
proposing to open an excessive deficit procedure for Austria by proposing to the Council 
to adopt a Decision under Article 126(6) establishing the existence of an excessive deficit. In 
the  exchange  leading  to  this  report,  the  Austrian  authorities  recalled  that  negotiations  are 
currently ongoing to form a government. The authorities expressed their intention to take the 
necessary action to bring the deficit below 3% in 2025 without having to open an excessive 
deficit  procedure.  This  would  require  a  package  of  corrective  measures,  in  time  for  the 
ECOFIN meeting of January 2025. The Commission stands ready to assess such a package as 
soon as related measures are formally agreed by the government and sufficiently detailed.  

For  Finland,  according  to  the  European  Commission  Autumn  2024  Forecast,  the  deficit  is 
projected  not  to  exceed  the  reference  value  already  as  from  2025  without  additional  policy 
measures. Therefore, initiating an excessive deficit procedure for Finland would not, at this 
stage, serve a useful purpose. 

The Commission will continuously monitor budgetary developments carefully and re-assess 
the situation in these and other Member States in spring 2025. 

17