Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION with a view to bringing an end to the situation of an excessive deficit in Poland
Date: 2024-11-26
Institutions: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission
Subjects: Poland, budget deficit, budgetary control, economic policy, economic reform, gross domestic product, public debt, public finance, stability pact

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   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 26.11.2024  COM(2024) 956 final  Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION with a view to bringing an end to the situation of an excessive deficit in Poland  
 
Recommendation for a 

COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION 

with a view to bringing an end to the situation of an excessive deficit in Poland 

THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, 

Having  regard  to  the  Treaty  on  the  Functioning  of  the  European  Union  (TFEU),  and  in 
particular Article 126(7) thereof, 

Having regard to the recommendation from the Commission, 

Whereas: 

(1) 

(2) 

(3) 

(4) 

(5) 

According  to  Article  126  of  the  TFEU,  Member  States  shall  avoid  excessive 
government deficits. 

The Stability and Growth Pact is based on the objective of sound government finances 
as  a  means  of  strengthening  the  conditions  for  price  stability  and  for  strong, 
sustainable and inclusive growth underpinned by financial stability, thereby supporting 
the achievement of the Union’s objectives for sustainable growth and employment. 

On  30  April  2024,  the  EU’s  reformed  economic  governance  framework  entered  into 
force. The framework includes Regulation (EU) 2024/12631 of 29 April 2024 on the 
effective  coordination  of  economic  policies  and  multilateral  budgetary  surveillance 
and  repealing  Council  Regulation  (EC)  No  1466/97.  It  also  includes  Council 
Regulation  (EU)  2024/1264  amending  Council  Regulation  (EC)  No  1467/972  on 
speeding  up  and  clarifying  the  implementation  of  the  excessive  deficit  procedure,  as 
well  as  Council  Directive  (EU)  2024/12653  of  29  April  2024  amending  Directive 
2011/85/EU on requirements for budgetary frameworks of the Member States. 

On 26 July 2024, the Council decided, in accordance with Article 126(6) TFEU, that 
an  excessive  deficit  existed  in  Poland  due  to  non-compliance  with  the  deficit 
criterion4. 

Article 126(7) TFEU and Article 3(4) of Council Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 require 
the Council to adopt a recommendation addressed to the Member State concerned with 
a view to bringing the situation of excessive deficit to an end within a given period. In 
line  with  Article  3(4)  of  Council  Regulation  (EC)  1467/97,  that  recommendation  is 
also to establish a maximum deadline of six months for effective action to be taken by 
the Member State concerned to correct the excessive deficit, which can be reduced to 
three months  when warranted by the seriousness  of the situation. Furthermore, in  its 
recommendation,  the  Council  is  to  recommend  that  the  Member  State  implements  a 
corrective net expenditure5 path, which ensures that the general government deficit is 

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OJ L, 30.4.2024, ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1263/oj. 
OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/1997/1467/2024-04-30. 
OJ L, 30.4.2024, ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/dir/2024/1265/oj. 
OJ L, 1.8.2024, ELI:  https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dec/2024/2133/oj 
According  to  Article  2(2)  of  Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263,  'net  expenditure'  means  government 
expenditure net of interest expenditure, discretionary revenue measures, expenditure on programmes of 

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brought and maintained below the 3% of GDP reference value within the deadline set 
in  that  recommendation.  Where  the  excessive  deficit  procedure  was  opened  on  the 
basis of the deficit criterion, the corrective net expenditure path is to be consistent with 
a minimum annual structural adjustment of at least 0.5% GDP as a benchmark for the 
years when the general government deficit is expected to exceed the reference value. 
The Commission  may, during a transition  period in  2025, 2026 and 2027, adjust the 
benchmark  to  take  into  account  the  increase  in  interest  payments  when  setting  the 
proposed  corrective  path  for  those  years,  taking  into  account  recital  23  of  Council 
Regulation (EU) 2024/1264.  

the  Commission 

In  view  of  the  submission  of  the  national  medium-term  fiscal-structural  plan  in 
accordance  with  Articles  11  and  36(1),  point  (a)  of  Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263,  the 
Council Decision of 26 July 2024 took into account that the next step in the excessive 
deficit  procedure,  namely 
for  a  Council 
recommendation under Article 126(7) TFEU on the correction of the excessive deficit 
would take place together with the Commission Opinion on the Draft Budgetary Plans 
of  euro  area  Member  States  under  Article  7  of  Regulation  (EU)  No  473/2013.  This 
approach allows to ensure consistency between the budgetary requirements under the 
excessive deficit procedure and the adjustment path set out in the medium-term fiscal-
structural  plans.  This  timeline  is  exceptional  and  linked  to  the  transition  to  the  new 
framework, therefore not setting a precedent. 

recommendation 

Real  GDP  in  Poland  expanded  by  0.1%  in  2023.  According  to  the  European 
Commission  2024  Autumn  Forecast,  the  economy  is  expected  to  grow  by  3.0%  in 
2024,  on  the  back  of  a  positive  contribution  from  private  and  public  consumption 
alongside investment, while net exports contribute negatively to growth. In 2025, real 
GDP  is  expected  to  increase  by  3.6%,  as  private  and  public  consumption  as  well  as 
investment contribute positively to growth while the contribution to growth from net 
exports remains negative. The unemployment rate is expected to reach 3.0% in 2024 
and 2.8% in 2025. Inflation is set to decrease from 10.9% in 2023 to 3.8% in 2024 and 
reach 4.7% in 2025. 
According  to  the  data  validated  by  Eurostat  on  22  October  20246,  the  general 
government  deficit  in  Poland  stood  at  5.3%  of  GDP  in  2023.  The  European 
Commission 2024 Autumn Forecast projects a general government deficit of 5.8% of 
GDP in 2024 and 5.6% of GDP in 2025, thus above the reference value in both years. 
The structural deficit is projected at 5.3% of GDP in 2024 and is expected to increase 
by 0.1 percentage points in 2025. 

General  government  debt  stood  at  49.7%  of  GDP  at  end-2023.  According  to  the 
European Commission 2024 Autumn Forecast, it is projected to increase to 54.7% of 
GDP at end-2024 and 58.9% of GDP at end-2025, thus remaining below the 60% of 
GDP reference value. 

(6) 

(7) 

(8) 

(9) 

(10)  On 9 October 2024, Poland submitted its first national medium-term  fiscal-structural 
plan,  in  accordance  with  Articles  11  and  36(1),  point  (a)  of  Regulation  (EU) 
2024/1263.  The  plan  covers  the  period  2025-2028  and  presents  a  fiscal  adjustment 

the  Union  fully  matched  by  revenue  from  Union  funds,  national  expenditure  on  co-financing  of 
programmes funded by the Union, cyclical elements of unemployment benefit expenditure, and one-offs 
and other temporary measures. 
October 
Eurostat 
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-22102024-AP  

Indicators 

published 

2024. 

Euro 

See: 

22 

on 

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spread over four years. The Council Recommendation endorsing the national medium-
term  fiscal-structural  plan  of  Poland  for  the  years  2025  to  2028  recommends  a  net 
expenditure path that factors in all the necessary requirements of a corrective path and 
should  be  recommended  as  the  corrective  net  expenditure  path  under  the  excessive 
deficit  procedure.  The  corrective  net  expenditure  path  is  thus  consistent  with  a 
minimum  annual  structural  adjustment of at  least 0.5% GDP as a benchmark for the 
years when the general government deficit is expected to exceed the reference value, 
in line with Council Regulation (EC) 1467/97.   

(11)  Based  on  the  net  expenditure  path,  as  the  sole  operational  reference  for  monitoring 
compliance,  which  is  set  out  in  the  Council  Recommendation  endorsing  the  plan  of 
Poland and in this recommendation, and based on the European Commission medium-
term  government  debt  projection  framework  and  the  European  Commission  Autumn 
2024  Forecast,  the  general  government  deficit  is  expected  to  decrease  from  5.8%  of 
GDP  in  2024  to  3.0%  by  2028.  Likewise,  based  on  the  assumptions  of  the  plan,  the 
deficit would go below the 3% deficit reference value in 2028.  

(12)  Based  on  the  corrective  net  expenditure  path  to  be  recommended,  the  European 
Commission medium-term government debt projection framework, and the European 
Commission  Autumn  2024  Forecast,  the  general  government  debt  would  increase 
from 54.7% at end-2024 to 61.6% in 2028. 

(13)  Budgetary consolidation measures should secure a lasting correction of the excessive 
deficit,  while  being  geared  towards  enhancing  the  quality  and  composition  of  the 
public  finances,  preserving  investment  and  reinforcing  the  growth  potential  of  the 
economy.  Reforms  of  a  fiscal  and  broader  economic  nature,  should  improve  the 
growth  and resilience potential of the economy in  a sustainable manner, and support 
fiscal sustainability.  

HEREBY RECOMMENDS: 

(1) 

(2) 

(3) 

Poland  should  ensure  that  the  nominal  growth  rate  of  net  expenditure  does  not 
exceed the maxima established in Annex I.  

Poland should thus put an end to the excessive deficit situation by 2028. 

The  Council  establishes  the  deadline  of  30  April  2025  for  Poland  to  take  effective 
action  and  present  the  necessary  measures  together  with  its  2025  annual  progress 
report,  to  be  submitted  to  the  Commission  in  accordance  with  Article  21  of 
Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263.  Thereafter,  Poland  should  report  on  progress  made  in 
the  implementation  of  this  recommendation  at  least  every  six  months  until  the 
excessive deficit has been corrected. 

This Recommendation is addressed to the Republic of Poland. 

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ANNEX I 
Maximum growth rates of net expenditure 
(annual and cumulative growth rates, in nominal terms) 
Poland 

Years 

Annual 

2025 

6.3 

2026 

2027 

2028 

4.4 

4.0 

3.5 

Cumulative (*) 

19.6 

24.9 

29.9 

34.4 

Growth rates 
(%) 

(*) The cumulative growth rates are calculated by reference to the base year of 2023. 

Done at Brussels, 

For the Council 
The President 

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