Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION endorsing the national medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Ireland
Date: 2024-11-26
Institutions: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission
Subjects: Ireland, budget deficit, coordination of EMU policies, economic reform, fiscal policy, investment, macroeconomics, national planning, public debt, structural adjustment

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   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Strasbourg, 26.11.2024  COM(2024) 717 final  Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION endorsing the national medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Ireland  
 
Recommendation for a 

COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION 

endorsing the national medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Ireland 

THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, 

Having  regard  to  the  Treaty  on  the  Functioning  of  the  European  Union,  and  in  particular 
Article 121 thereof, 

Having regard to Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, and in particular Article 17 thereof, 

Having regard to the recommendation from the Commission, 

Whereas: 

GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS 

(1) 

(2) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

A reformed EU economic governance framework entered into force on 30 April 2024. 
Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  on  the 
effective  coordination  of  economic  policies  and  on  multilateral  budgetary 
surveillance1,  together  with  the  amended  Regulation  (EC)  No  1467/97  on  the 
implementation  of  the  excessive  deficit  procedure2,  and  the  amended  Council 
Directive  2011/85/EU  on  the  budgetary  frameworks  of  Member  States3  are  the  core 
elements of the reformed EU economic governance framework. The framework aims 
at  ensuring  public  debt  sustainability  and  sustainable  and  inclusive  growth  through 
reforms  and  investments.  It  promotes  national  ownership  and  has  a  medium-term 
focus, combined with an effective and coherent enforcement of the rules. 

The  national  medium-term  fiscal-structural  plans  that  Member  States  submit  to  the 
Council  and  to  the  Commission  are  at  the  centre  of  the  new  economic  governance 
framework. The plans are to deliver on two objectives: i) ensuring that, by the end of 
the adjustment period, general government debt is on a plausibly downward trajectory, 
or stays at  prudent  levels,  and that the government  deficit is  brought and maintained 
below the reference value of 3% of GDP over the medium term, and ii) ensuring the 
delivery  of  reforms  and  investments  responding  to  the  main  challenges  identified  in 
the context of the European Semester and addressing the common priorities of the EU. 
To that end, each plan is to present a medium-term commitment to a net expenditure4 

L, 

(OJ 

1466/97 

Regulation 

(EC)  No 

Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  29  April  2024  on  the 
effective  coordination  of  economic  policies  and  on  multilateral  budgetary  surveillance  and  repealing 
ELI: 
Council 
http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1263/oj). 
Council  Regulation  (EU)  2024/1264  of  29  April  2024  amending  Regulation  (EC)  No  1467/97  on 
speeding  up  and  clarifying  the  implementation  of  the  excessive  deficit  procedure  (OJ  L,  2024/1264, 
30.4.2024, ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1264/oj). 
Council Directive (EU) 2024/1265 of 29 April 2024 amending Directive 2011/85/EU on requirements 
for  budgetary 
(OJ  L,  2024/1265,  30.4.2024,  ELI: 
http://data.europa.eu/eli/dir/2024/1265/oj). 
Net expenditure as defined in Article 2 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, namely government expenditure 
net  of  (i)  interest  expenditure,  (ii)  discretionary  revenue  measures,  (iii)  expenditure  on  Union 
programmes fully matched by revenue from Union funds,  (iv) national expenditure on co-financing of 

the  Member  States 

frameworks  of 

2024/1263, 

30.4.2024, 

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path, which effectively establishes a budgetary constraint for the duration of the plan, 
covering four or five years (depending on the regular term of legislature in a Member 
State).  In  addition,  the  plan  should  explain  how  the  Member  State  will  ensure  the 
delivery  of  reforms  and  investments  responding  to  the  main  challenges  identified  in 
the  context  of  the  European  Semester,  in  particular  in  the  country-specific 
recommendations  (including  those  pertaining  to  the  macroeconomic  imbalances 
procedure (MIP), if applicable), and how the Member State will address the common 
priorities of the Union. The period for fiscal adjustment covers a period of four years, 
which  may  be  extended  by  up  to  three  years  if  the  Member  State  commits  to 
delivering a set of relevant reforms and investments that satisfies the criteria set out in 
Regulation (EU) 2024/1263 

(3) 

(4) 

Following the submission of the plan, the Commission is to assess whether it complies 
with the requirements of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263.  

Upon  a  recommendation  from  the  Commission,  the  Council  is  to  then  adopt  a 
recommendation to set the net  expenditure path  of the Member State concerned and, 
investment  commitments 
the  set  of  reform  and 
where  applicable,  endorses 
underpinning an extension of the fiscal adjustment period. 

CONSIDERATIONS  CONCERNING  THE  NATIONAL  MEDIUM-TERM  FISCAL-
STRUCTURAL PLAN OF IRELAND 

(5) 

On 15 October 2024, Ireland submitted its national medium-term fiscal-structural plan 
to  the  Council  and  to  the  Commission.  The  submission  took  place  following  an 
extension  of  the  deadline  set  out  in  Article  36  of  Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263,  as 
agreed with the Commission in view of the reasons provided by Ireland. 

Process prior to the submission of the plan 

(6) 

(7) 

5 

6 

Ireland  was  eligible  for  receiving  technical  information,  but  did  not  request  it.  The 
Commission  provided  to  Ireland  on  21  June  2024  the  main  initial  conditions  and 
underlying  assumptions  used  in  the  Commission’s  medium-term  government  debt 
projection  framework5,  as  referred  to  in  Recital  (25)  of  Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263, 
and published them on 15 October 20246. 

In  line  with  Article  12  of  Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263,  Ireland  and  the  Commission 
engaged in  a technical  dialogue in  September 2024. The dialogue centred on the net 
expenditure  path  envisaged  by  Ireland  and  its  underlying  assumptions  (in  particular 
potential GDP growth and stock-flow adjustments), as well as the envisaged delivery 
of reforms and investments responding to the main challenges identified in the context 
of  the  European  Semester  and  the  common  priorities  of  the  Union  in  fair  green  and 

Debt 

Commission’s 

programmes funded by the Union, (v) cyclical elements of unemployment benefit expenditure and (vi) 
one-offs and other temporary measures. 
The main initial conditions and underlying assumptions are in line with  the methodology described in 
(https://economy-
the 
finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/debt-sustainability-monitor-2023_en).  They  are  based  on 
the 
European Commission Spring 2024 Forecast and its medium-term extension up to 2033, and long-term 
GDP  growth  and  ageing  costs  are  in  line  with  the  joint  Commission-Council  2024  Ageing  Report 
(https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/2024-ageing-report-economic-and-budgetary-
projections-eu-member-states-2022-2070_en). 
https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-and-fiscal-governance/national-medium-term-fiscal-
structural-plans_en#ireland 

Sustainability 

Monitor 

2023 

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(8) 

(9) 

digital transition, social and economic resilience, energy security and the build-up of 
defence capabilities. 

In  May  2024,  in  line  with  Article  11(3)  and  36(1),  point  (c)  of  Regulation  (EU) 
2024/1263,  according  to  the  information  provided  by  Ireland  in  the  plan,  Ireland 
engaged  in  a  consultation  process  with  civil  society,  social  partners,  regional 
authorities and other relevant stakeholders. According to the information provided by 
Ireland in its plan, the Government hosted the National Economic Dialogue (NED), an 
annual event that provides a forum for stakeholders to exchange with the Government 
on economic and social priorities. Discussions at the NED 2024 included a medium-
term focus in the context of the Government’s obligations under the revised EU fiscal 
framework. 

The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC) delivered an opinion on the macroeconomic 
forecast  and  the  macroeconomic  assumptions  underpinning  the  multi-annual  net 
expenditure path7. The macroeconomic forecasts underpinning the national budget for 
2025 were endorsed by the IFAC on 23 September 2024, as the IFAC was satisfied the 
forecasts are within an endorsable range. The IFAC considers its endorsement comes 
at a time when the economy is performing above its potential and with risks related to 
capacity constraints domestically. 

Other related processes 

(10)  On  15  October  2024,  Ireland  submitted  its  Draft  Budgetary  Plan  for  the  year  2025. 
The Commission adopted an opinion on this Draft Budgetary Plan on [26 November 
2024]8. 

(11)  On  21  October  2024,  the  Council  addressed  to  Ireland  a  series  of  country-specific 

recommendations (CSRs) in the context of the European Semester9. 

SUMMARY OF THE PLAN AND THE COMMISSION’S ASSESSMENT THEREOF 

(12) 

In  line  with  Article  16  of  Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263,  the  Commission  assessed  the 
plan as follows: 

Context: macroeconomic and fiscal situation and outlook 

(13)  Economic  activity  in  Ireland  contracted  by  5.5%  in  2023,  driven  by  a  decline  in  net 
exports,  mainly  in  specific  multinational-dominated  sectors,  while  the  domestic 
economy  remained  strong.  According  to  the  European  Commission  Autumn  2024 
Forecast, the economy is expected to decline by 0.5% in 2024, on the back of ongoing 
volatility in multinational-dominated sectors. In 2025, real GDP is set to increase by 
4.0%,  supported  by  a  strong  domestic  economy  and  continued  growth  in  exports.  In 
2026,  real  GDP  is  expected  to  increase  by  3.6%,  as  domestic  demand  and  exports 
continue  to  positively  contribute  to  growth.  Over  the  forecast  horizon  (i.e.,  2024-
2026), potential GDP growth in Ireland is expected to increase marginally from 2.6% 
in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025, followed by a slight decline in 2026 to 2.7%. This is driven 
by  a  gradual  decline  in  labour  contribution  and  an  uptick  in  capital  accumulation 
contribution  following  a  decline  in  2024.  The  unemployment  rate  stood  at  4.3%  in 
2023 and is  projected by the  Commission  to  amount  to  4.4% in  2024,  4.4% in  2025 

7 
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9 

The macroeconomic projections in Budget 2025 cover the years from 2024 to 2030. 
Commission Opinion on the Draft Budgetary Plan of Ireland, 26.11.2024, C(2024)9056 final. 
Council Recommendation on economic, budgetary, employment and structural policies of Ireland, not 
yet published. 

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and 4.5% in 2026. Inflation (GDP deflator) is projected to decrease from 3.6% in 2023 
to 3.3% in 2024, and to reach 2.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. 

(14)  Regarding  fiscal  developments,  in  2023  Ireland’s  general  government  surplus 
amounted  to  1.5%  of  GDP.  According  to  the  European  Commission  Autumn  2024 
Forecast,  it  is  set  to  reach  4.4%  of  GDP  in  2024  and  to  decline  to  1.4%  of  GDP  in 
2025 and, on a no-policy change basis, to 1.3% in 2026. The European  Commission 
Autumn  2024  Forecast  includes  Ireland’s  draft  budget  for  2025  that  the  government 
proposed to the national parliament in October. General government debt was 43.3% 
of GDP at end-2023. According to the European Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast, 
the debt ratio is expected to decline to  41.6% of GDP at end-2024. It is  projected to 
decline to 38.3% of GDP at end-2025 and 36.8% at end-2026. The fiscal forecast by 
the Commission does not consider the policy commitments in the medium-term plans 
as  such  until  they  are  underpinned  by  credibly  announced  and  sufficiently  specified 
concrete policy measures. 

Net expenditure path and main macroeconomic assumptions in the plan 

(15) 

Ireland’s national medium-term fiscal-structural plan covers the period 2025-2029 and 
presents a fiscal adjustment over four years. 

(16)  The  plan  contains  all  information  required  by  Article  13  of  Regulation  (EU) 

2024/1263. 

(17)  The  plan commits  to the net  expenditure path  indicated in  Table 1, corresponding to 
average  net  expenditure  growth  of  5.3%  over  the  years  2025-2029.  The  net 
expenditure  path  committed  to  in  the  plan  is  reported  to  lead  to  a  structural  primary 
balance of 2.3% of GDP at the end of the adjustment period (2028). The plan assumes 
potential GDP growth to gradually decline from 3.1% in 2024 to 2.8% by 2027 before 
an uptick  to  3.6%  in  2028. In  addition,  the plan expects  the  growth  rate of the  GDP 
deflator to decrease from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025 and remain at that level until 
2028. 

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Table 1: Net expenditure path and main assumptions in Ireland’s plan 

2024 

2025 

2026 

2027 

2028 

2029 

Average 
over the 
period of 
validity of 
the plan 
2025-2029 

Average 
over the 
adjustment 
period  
2025 – 
2028 

9.8 

5.1 

6.5 

4.9 

5.4 

4.7 

5.3 

5.5 

9.8 

15.4 

22.8 

28.9 

35.8 

42.2 

n.a. 

n.a. 

3.1 

3.2 

2.9 

2.8 

3.6 

3.5 

3.2 

2.1 

2.1 

2.1 

2.1 

2.1 

3.2 

2.1 

3.1 

2.1 

Net 
expenditure 
growth 
(annual, %) 

Net 
expenditure 
growth 
(cumulative, 
from base 
year 2023, %) 

Potential GDP 
growth (%) 

Inflation 
(GDP deflator 
growth) (%) 

Source: Medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Ireland and Commission calculations. 

Implications of the plan’s net expenditure commitments for general government debt  

(18) 

If the net  expenditure path  committed to  in  the plan and the underlying assumptions 
materialise, general government debt would, according to the plan, gradually decrease 
from 41.4% in 2024 to 34.0% of GDP at the end of the adjustment period (2028), as 
per the following table. After the adjustment, over the medium term (i.e. until 2038), 
the debt ratio is expected to continue to continue decreasing well below 60% of GDP 
to reach 18.8% of GDP by 2038. 

Table 2: General government debt and balance developments in Ireland’s plan  

2023 

2024 

2025 

2026 

2027 

2028 

2029 

2038 

Government debt 

43.4 

41.4 

37.9 

36 

34.8 

34 

33.1 

18.8 

(% of GDP) 

Government balance 

1.6 

4.5 

1.7 

1.4 

1.1 

1.6 

1.5 

0.6 

(% of GDP) 

Source: Medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Ireland 

Thus,  according  to  the  plan,  general  government  debt  would  stay  below  the  Treaty 
reference value of 60% of GDP over the medium term. Therefore, based on the plan’s 
policy  commitments  and  macroeconomic  assumptions,  the  net  expenditure  path  put 
forward  in  the  plan  is  consistent  with  the  requirement  for  debt  as  set  out  in  Article 
16(2) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263. 

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Implications  of  the  plan’s  net  expenditure  commitments  for  the  general  government 
balance 

(19)  Based  on  the  plan’s  net  expenditure  path  and  assumptions,  the  general  government 
surplus would be 1.7% of GDP in 2025, decrease to 1.4% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027 
and  grow  to  1.6%  in  2028.  Thus,  according  to  the  plan,  the  general  government 
balance would not exceed the 3% of GDP reference value at the end of the adjustment 
period (2028). In addition, in the ten years following the adjustment period (i.e. until 
2038), the government deficit would not exceed 3% of GDP. Therefore, based on the 
plan’s policy commitments and macroeconomic assumptions, the net expenditure path 
put forward in the plan is consistent with the requirement for the deficit as set out in 
Article 16(2) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263. 

Macroeconomic assumptions of the plan 

(20)  The  plan  is  based  on  a  set  of  assumptions  which  differs  from  the  Commission’s 
assumptions  transmitted  to  Ireland  on  21  June  2024.  In  particular,  the  plan  uses 
different  assumptions  for  eight  variables,  namely:  the  starting  point  (the  structural 
primary  balance  in  2024),  potential  GDP  growth,  GDP  deflator  growth,  real  GDP 
growth,  nominal  implicit  interest  rate,  stock-flow  adjustments,  one-offs,  and  output 
gap  closure.  Moreover, 
the  ‘no-fiscal-policy-change’ 
assumption beyond the adjustment period by  assuming further fiscal deconsolidation 
over  the  years  2029  and  2030.  An  assessment  of  these  differences  in  assumptions  is 
provided  below.  The  differences  in  assumptions  with  the  most  significant  impact  on 
average net expenditure growth are listed below, together with an assessment of each 
difference considered in isolation.  

the  plan  deviates  from 

revised 

(21)  The  plan  assumes  a  higher  structural  primary  balance  for  2024,  namely  a  surplus  of 
3.7%  of  GDP,  while  the  Commission  expected  a  surplus  of  2.5%  of  GDP  in  spring 
the  accompanying  updated 
fiscal  position  and 
2024.  This 
macroeconomic  conditions  for  2024  in  the  plan  reflect  more  recent  information 
available  since  spring.  This  is  in  line  with  the  Commission  Autumn  2024  Forecast. 
Consequently,  this  difference  is  deemed  to  be  duly  justified.  Taken  in  isolation,  it 
increases  the  average  net  expenditure  growth  ceiling  over  the  adjustment  period 
compared with the Commission’s assumptions.  

initial 

• 

• 

In  the  plan,  potential  GDP  growth  over  the  plan  period  is  lower  by  0.3  pp.  on 
average compared  to  the  Commission’s  assumptions  shared  on  21  June  2024.  This 
reflects more recent outturn data than in spring 2024, using the EU commonly agreed 
methodology. Moreover, the plan also assumes real GDP growth to be lower and the 
output gap to close earlier than in the Commission’s assumptions. Indeed, according 
to the Commission’s methodology, the fiscal expansion in the Irish plan would lead 
to higher multiplier effects on real GDP growth  and the output gap would close by 
2033,  while  it  already  closes  in  2030  in  the  plan.  Consequently,  these  assumptions 
are  deemed  to  be  prudent  and  therefore  duly  justified.  Together,  they  contribute  to 
lower  average  net  expenditure  growth  over  the  adjustment  period  in  the  plan  than 
according to the Commission’s assumptions.  

The plan assumes GDP deflator growth to be higher by 0.1 pp. on average over the 
plan  period  compared  to  the  Commission’s  assumptions.  It  reflects  more  recent 
outturn data than in spring 2024. Consequently, this assumption is deemed to be duly 
justified.  Taken  in  isolation,  this  contributes  to  higher  average  net  expenditure 
growth  over  the  adjustment  period  in  the  plan  than  according  to  the  Commission’s 
assumptions. 

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• 

The  plan  assumes  stock-flow  adjustments  to  be  higher  than  according  to  the 
Commission’s assumptions because of the establishment of new savings funds. The 
less  favourable  assumption  in  the  plan  can  be  explained  by  the  plan’s  reliance  on 
more recent data. Consequently, this assumption is deemed to be duly justified. 

The remaining differences do not have a significant impact on average net expenditure 
growth  compared  to  the  Commission’s  assumptions.  Overall,  all  the  differences  in 
assumptions taken together lead to a theoretical average net expenditure growth ceiling 
that is higher than what would be required to comply with the applicable fiscal rules 
based on the Commission’s assumptions of spring 2024. However, in its plan, Ireland 
commits to  a net  expenditure path  that is  lower than this  theoretical  ceiling and also 
lower  than  what  would  be  necessary  to  comply  with  the  fiscal  rules  under  the 
Commission’s  assumptions.  The  Commission  will  take  into  account  the  above 
assessment of the plan’s assumptions in future assessments of compliance with the net 
expenditure path. 

Fiscal strategy of the plan  

(22)  According  to  the  indicative  fiscal  strategy  in  the  plan,  the  commitments  on  net 
expenditure  will  be  delivered  mainly  through  providing  additional  public  services  to 
meet  the  needs  of  a  rapidly  expanding  population.  Moreover,  Ireland  will  finance 
additions to the public capital stock by ramping up the public sector investment rate. 
Finally,  Ireland  has  established  two  longer-term  savings  vehicles  as  a  large  share  of 
corporate tax is estimated to be ‘windfall’ in nature. While the projections for general 
government  balances  show  persistent  general  government  surpluses,  the  strategy 
focuses on the expenditure side due to the significant impact of ‘windfall’ revenues on 
the headline balance. The specification of the policy measures to be adopted is to be 
confirmed  or  adjusted  and  quantified  in  the  annual  budgets.  In  addition,  the  Draft 
Budgetary  Plan  for  2025  specifies  the  policy  measures  through  which  the  net 
expenditure commitment for 2025 will be achieved10. 

Reform  and  investment  intentions  in  the  plan  responding  to  the  main  challenges 
identified in the context of the European Semester and addressing the common priorities 
of the Union 

(23)  The plan describes policy intentions concerning reforms and investments to respond to 
the main challenges identified in the context of the European Semester, especially the 
CSRs, and to address the common priorities of the EU.  The plan includes around 40 
measures, of which 12 are financially supported by the Recovery and Resilience Fund 
(RRF). 

(24)  Concerning  the  common  priority  of  a  fair  green  and  digital  transition,  including  the 
climate objectives set out in Regulation (EU) 2021/1119, the plan outlines a consistent 
set  of  reforms  and  investments.  Measures  on  climate  change  mitigation  (CSRs  in 
2019,  2020,  2022  and  2023)  ref  include  an  increase  in  the  carbon  tax  rate  and  the 
Climate  Action  and  Low  Carbon  Development  (amendment)  Bill,  which  are  both 
included  in  the  recovery  and  resilience  plan  (RRP)  and  the  National  Energy  and 
Climate  Plan.  The  bill  establishes  a  legally  binding  framework,  with  targets  and 
commitments,  putting  the  climate  neutrality  objective  by  2050  on  a  statutory  basis, 
including the adoption of 5-yearly carbon budgets and Climate Action Plans. Measures 
on water and wastewater (CSR in 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024) refer to Ireland’s 

10 

See Commission Opinion on the Draft Budgetary Plan of Ireland, 26.11.2024, C(2024)9056 final. 

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third River Basin  Management Plan. The plan does not  outline measures  to  improve 
waste management and boost the circular economy (CSR in 2022 and 2023) as well as 
measures related to public transport (CSR in 2019 and 2020) and the electrification of 
transport  (CSR  in  2022  and  2023).  The  plan  outlines  measures  to  enable  the  digital 
transition  (CSR  in  2019  and  2020)  as  reflected  in  the  National  Digital  Strategy, 
Harnessing  Digital  and  achieve  digital  targets  as  reflected  in  the  Strategic  Roadmap 
for  the  Digital  Decade.  This  includes  investments  in  digital  skills  (some  included  in 
the  RRP)  access  and  use  of  digital  public  services  (some  included  in  the  RRP), 
especially through grants and assistance to SMEs, support for companies to digitalise 
(some  included  in  the  RRP),  cyber-security  through  increased  resources  for  the 
National  Cyber  Security  Centre,  and  connectivity  through  the  implementation  of  a 
National  Broadband Plan with  a target  of having all Irish households and businesses 
covered by Gigabit network no later than 2028 and all populated areas covered by 5G 
no later than 2030. 

(25)  Concerning  the  common  priority  of  social  and  economic  resilience,  including  the 
European Pillar of Social Rights, the plan outlines measures to increase the supply of 
social and affordable housing (CSR in 2019 and 2020) through the implementation of 
the Housing for All plan (some actions included in the RRP), and the planning reform. 
Measures  to  support  the  business  environment  of  enterprises,  particularly  domestic 
SMEs (CSR in 2019 and 2020), include actions set in the White Paper on Enterprise. 
Measures  to  support  research  and  innovation  (CSR  in  2019  and  2020)  include  the 
creation  of  a  new  competitive  research  and  innovation  funding  agency,  the 
strengthening  of  technological  universities  (some  actions  included  in  the  RRP  and 
ERDF programmes) and other investments published in the Impact 2030 strategy. In 
line  with  the  European  Pillar  of  Social  rights,  the  plan  also  outlines  a  range  of 
initiatives on equal opportunities and access to the labour market. Measures on skills 
(CSR in 2020 and 2023) include the establishment of a new National Skills Council, 
unlocking  funds  from  the  National  Skills  Fund,  increased  current  and  capital 
investment (some actions included in the RRP), the development of a single national 
apprenticeship  model and reforms  in  the tertiary education sector.  The plan does not 
outline measures to facilitate upskilling, in particular for vulnerable groups and people 
living in households with low work intensity (CSR in 2019). The plan outlines a range 
of initiatives on fair working conditions, including the introduction of National living 
wages  at  60%  of  hourly  median  wages  by  January  2026.  The  plan  also  outlines 
initiatives  on  social  protection  and  inclusion,  including  labour  market  activation 
investments (CSR in 2019) targeting vulnerable groups as set in the Pathways to Work 
strategy.  This  is  complemented  by  reforms  in  the  childcare  sector  (CSR  in  2019), 
which  include  universal  and  income-related  subsidies  under  the  National  Childcare 
Scheme,  and  poverty  reduction  commitments  set  under  the  Roadmap  for  Social 
Inclusion. With regards to  priority cohorts mentioned in  the context of the European 
Semester, the plan refers to the National  Disability Strategy and the second National 
Traveller and Roma Inclusion Strategy. 

(26)  Concerning the common priority of energy security, the plan outlines measures which 
aim at  to  reducing  the overall reliance on fossil fuels,  notably though  investments  in 
offshore  renewable  energy  (CSR  in  2022  and  2023)  (some  actions  included  in  the 
RRP) and grid connectors (CSR in  2022, 2023 and 2024) with  Northern  Ireland  and 
France. Measures to reinforce the resilience of the energy system include funding for 
poorer  households  to  improve  the  energy  performance  of  private  buildings  (CSR  in 
2022, 2023 and 2024) (some actions included in the RRP and ERDF programmes) as 

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well as actions on energy storage and demand-side response (CSR in 2022, 2023 and 
2024) included in the Energy Security in Ireland strategy. 

(27)  Concerning  the  common  priority  of  defence  capabilities,  the  plan  includes  no 

measures. 

(28) 

to  address 

the  plan  outlines  policy  measures 

long-term  fiscal 
In  addition, 
sustainability.  Measures  on  the  cost-effectiveness  and  accessibility  of  the  healthcare 
system  (CSR  in  2019  and  2024)  outlined  in  the  Digital  Health  Strategic  Framework 
includes 48 strategic initiatives on digital health solutions, establishing an independent 
Commission  on  Care  for  Older  People,  as  well  as  the  establishment  of  four  new 
elective hospitals, developing better primary and community care and restructuring of 
the health service executive under the Sláintecare reform (some actions included in the 
RRP).  Measures  to  improve  the  sustainability  of  the  pension  system  (CSR  in  2019, 
2022  and  2023)  include  the  introduction  of  pay-related  social  benefits,  an  auto-
enrolment  pensions  scheme  for  selected  employees,  the  establishment  of  two  long-
term savings vehicles (Future Ireland Fund and the Infrastructure, Climate and Nature 
Fund)  as  well  as  an  agreed  roadmap  of  social  security  contributions  increases.  The 
plan states that Ireland will continue to address aggressive tax planning (CSR in 2019 
and 2020) through the implementation of its Corporation Tax Roadmap (some actions 
included in the RRP) but does not include tax base broadening measures (CSR in 2019 
and 2020). While the plan does not outline measures on anti-money laundering (CSR 
in 2020) some reforms are being undertaken within Ireland’s RRP. 

(29)  The  plan  provides 

information  on 

the  consistency  and,  where  appropriate, 
complementarity, with the cohesion policy funds and Ireland`s RRP. The plan includes 
information on the size and objectives of the different cohesion policy funds. The plan 
includes a table outlining which structural reforms and investment priorities will be in 
part  addressed  through  measures  included  in  Ireland’s  RRP  and/or  cohesion  policy 
funds. 

(30)  The plan aims to contribute to meet the public investment needs of Ireland related to 
the common priorities of the EU. Concerning the common priority of a fair green and 
digital transition, the plan gives a general outline on ongoing investments to reducing 
greenhouse  gas  emissions,  improve  water  and  wastewater  management  and  support 
the  digital  transformation.  Concerning  the  common  priority  of  social  and  economic 
resilience,  the  plan  gives  a  general  outline  on  ongoing  investments  related  to 
supporting  enterprises,  research  and  innovation,  skills,  labour  market  activation, 
childcare  and  housing.  Concerning  the  common  priority  energy  security,  the  plan 
gives  a  general  outline  on  investments  related  to  retrofitting,  offshore  renewable 
energy and grid connectors. 

Conclusion of the Commission’s assessment 

(31)  Overall, the Commission is of the view that Ireland’s plan fulfils the requirements of 

Regulation (EU) 2024/1263. 

OVERALL CONCLUSION 

(32) 

In accordance with Article 17 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, the net expenditure path 
as set in the plan should be recommended by the Council to Ireland. 

HEREBY RECOMMENDS that Ireland 

(1) 

Ensure  that  net  expenditure  growth  does  not  exceed  the  maxima  established  in 
Annex I to this Recommendation. 

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In  addition,  the  Council  invites  Ireland  to  ensure  the  delivery  of  reforms  and 
investments  responding  to  the  main  challenges  identified  in  the  context  of  the 
European  Semester,  in  particular  in  the  country-specific  recommendations,  and 
addressing the common priorities of the Union. 

ANNEX I 

Maximum growth rates of net expenditure 
(annual and cumulative growth rates, in nominal terms) 

IRELAND 

Years 

2025 

2026 

2027 

2028 

2029 

Growth rates 
(%) 

Annual 

5.1 

6.5 

4.9 

5.4 

4.7 

Cumulative (*) 

15.4 

22.8 

28.9 

35.8 

42.3 

(*) The cumulative growth rates are calculated by reference to the base year of 2023. 

Done at Strasbourg, 

For the Council 
The President 

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