Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION endorsing the national medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Sweden
Date: 2024-11-26
Institutions: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission
Subjects: Sweden, budget deficit, coordination of EMU policies, economic reform, fiscal policy, investment, macroeconomics, national planning, public debt, structural adjustment

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   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Strasbourg, 26.11.2024  COM(2024) 726 final  Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION endorsing the national medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Sweden  
 
Recommendation for a 

COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION 

endorsing the national medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Sweden 

THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION,  

Having regard to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and in particular 
Article 121 thereof,  

Having regard to Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, and in particular Article 17 thereof,  

Having regard to the recommendation from the Commission,  

Whereas:  

GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS 

(1) 

(2) 

1 

2 

3 

A  reformed  EU  economic  governance  framework  entered  into  force  on  30  April 
2024. Regulation (EU) 2024/1263 of the European Parliament and of the Council on 
the  effective  coordination  of  economic  policies  and  on  multilateral  budgetary 
surveillance1,  together  with  the  amended  Regulation  (EC)  No  1467/97  on  the 
implementation  of  the  excessive  deficit  procedure2,  and  the  amended  Council 
Directive 2011/85/EU on the budgetary frameworks of Member States3 are the core 
elements of the reformed EU economic governance framework. The framework aims 
at  ensuring  public  debt  sustainability  and  sustainable  and  inclusive  growth  through 
reforms  and  investments.  It  promotes  national  ownership  and  has  a  medium-term 
focus, combined with an effective and coherent enforcement of the rules.   

The  national  medium-term  fiscal-structural  plans  that  Member  States  submit  to  the 
Council  and  to  the  Commission  are  at  the  centre  of  the  new  economic  governance 
framework. The plans are to deliver on two objectives: i) ensuring that, by the end of 
the  adjustment  period,  general  government  debt  is  on  a  plausibly  downward 
trajectory, or stays at prudent levels, and that the government deficit is brought and 
maintained below the reference value of 3% of GDP over the medium term, and ii) 
ensuring the delivery of reforms and investments responding to the main challenges 
identified  in  the  context  of  the  European  Semester  and  addressing  the  common 
priorities of the EU. To that end, each plan is to present a medium-term commitment 

Regulation 

(EC)  No 

Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  29  April  2024  on  the 
effective  coordination  of  economic  policies  and  on  multilateral  budgetary  surveillance  and  repealing 
Council 
ELI: 
http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1263/oj). 
Council  Regulation  (EU)  2024/1264  of  29  April  2024  amending  Regulation  (EC)  No  1467/97  on 
speeding  up  and  clarifying  the  implementation  of  the  excessive  deficit  procedure  (OJ  L,  2024/1264, 
30.4.2024, ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1264/oj). 
Council Directive (EU) 2024/1265 of 29 April 2024 amending Directive 2011/85/EU on requirements 
(OJ  L,  2024/1265,  30.4.2024,  ELI: 
for  budgetary 
http://data.europa.eu/eli/dir/2024/1265/oj). 

the  Member  States 

frameworks  of 

2024/1263, 

30.4.2024, 

1466/97 

(OJ 

L, 

EN 

1 

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to a net expenditure4 path, which effectively establishes a budgetary constraint for the 
duration  of  the  plan,  covering  four  or  five  years  (depending  on  the  regular  term  of 
legislature in  a Member  State). In  addition,  the plan  is  to  explain how the Member 
State  will  ensure  the  delivery  of  reforms  and  investments  responding  to  the  main 
challenges  identified  in  the  context  of  the  European  Semester,  in  particular  in  the 
country-specific recommendations (including those pertaining to the macroeconomic 
imbalances procedure (MIP), if applicable), and how the Member State will address 
the common priorities of the Union. The period for fiscal adjustment covers a period 
of  four  years,  which  may  be  extended  by  up  to  three  years  if  the  Member  State 
commits  to  delivering  a  set  of  relevant  reforms  and  investments  that  satisfies  the 
criteria set out in Regulation (EU) 2024/1263.   

(3) 

(4) 

Following  the  submission  of  the  plan,  the  Commission  is  to  assess  whether  it 
complies with the requirements of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263. 

Upon  a  recommendation  from  the  Commission,  the  Council  is  to  then  adopt  a 
recommendation to set the net expenditure path of the Member State concerned and, 
where  applicable,  endorses  the  set  of  reform  and  investment  commitments 
underpinning an extension of the fiscal adjustment period.  

CONSIDERATIONS  CONCERNING  THE  NATIONAL  MEDIUM-TERM  FISCAL-
STRUCTURAL PLAN OF SWEDEN   

(5) 

On  11  October  2024,  Sweden  submitted  its  national  medium-term  fiscal-structural 
plan to the Council and to the Commission. The submission took place following an 
extension  of  the  deadline  set  out  in  Article  36  of  Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263,  as 
agreed with the Commission in view of the reasons provided by Sweden. 

Process prior to the submission of the plan    

(6) 

Prior to the submission of its plan, Sweden requested technical information5, which 
the Commission provided on 21 June 2024 and published on 11 October 20246. The 
technical  information  indicates  the  level  of  the  structural  primary  balance  in  2028 

4 

5 

6 

Net expenditure as defined in Article 2 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, namely government expenditure 
net  of  (i)  interest  expenditure,  (ii)  discretionary  revenue  measures,  (iii)  expenditure  on  Union 
programmes fully matched by revenue from Union funds, (iv) national expenditure on co-financing of 
programmes funded by the Union, (v) cyclical elements of unemployment benefit expenditure and (vi) 
one-offs and other temporary measures. 
Prior  guidance  transmitted  to  the  Member  States  and  Economic  and  Financial  Committee  includes 
technical information i) without and with an extension of the adjustment period (covering 4 and 7 years, 
respectively),  and  ii)  with  and  without  deficit  resilience  safeguard.  It  also  includes  the  main  initial 
conditions  and  underlying  assumptions  used  in  the  Commission’s  medium-term  government  debt 
projection  framework.  The  reference  trajectory  was  calculated  on  the  basis  of  the  methodology 
described 
(https://economy-
finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/debt-sustainability-monitor-2023_en).  It  is  based  on  the  European 
Commission  Spring  2024  Forecast  and  its  medium-term  extension  up  to  2033,  and  long-term  GDP 
growth  and  ageing  costs  are  in  line  with  the  joint  Commission-Council  2024  Ageing  Report 
(https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/2024-ageing-report-economic-and-budgetary-
projections-eu-member-states-2022-2070_en). 
https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-and-fiscal-governance/national-medium-term-fiscal-
structural-plans_en#sweden 

the  Commission’s  Debt 

Sustainability  Monitor 

2023 

in 

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that  is  necessary  to  ensure  that  the  general  government  deficit  is  maintained  below 
3%  of  GDP  over  the  medium  term  and  that  the  general  government  debt  remains 
below  60%  of  GDP  over  the  medium  term,  in  the  absence  of  further  budgetary 
measures  beyond the 4-year  adjustment period.  The medium  term is  defined as the 
ten-year period after the end of the adjustment period. The technical information was 
prepared  and  transmitted  to  the  Member  States  under  two  scenarios:  a  scenario 
including consistency with the deficit resilience safeguard,7 in line with Article 9(3) 
of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, and a scenario without this safeguard. The technical 
information  for  Sweden  sets  out  that,  in  order  to  comply  with  the  applicable  fiscal 
rules  over  an  adjustment  period  of  4  years,  and  based  on  the  Commission’s 
assumptions, the structural primary balance should amount to at least -1.8% of GDP 
at  the  end  of  the  adjustment  period  (2028;  scenario  without  the  deficit  resilience 
safeguard), as per the following table 1. For information, considering also the deficit 
resilience safeguard, the structural primary balance should amount to at least  -0.8% 
of GDP  at  the  end of the adjustment period (2028). However, the deficit  resilience 
safeguard  is  not  a  requirement  for  Sweden,  which  is  eligible  for  technical 
information.  

Table 1: Technical information provided by the Commission to Sweden  

Final year of the adjustment period  

Minimum value of the structural primary balance (% of GDP), scenario without the deficit 
resilience safeguard  
For information only: Minimum value of the structural primary balance (% of GDP), scenario 
with the deficit resilience safeguard  

Source: Commission’s calculations.  

2028  

-1.8  

-0.8  

(7) 

(8) 

(9) 

In line with Article 12 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, Sweden and the Commission 
engaged  in  a  technical  dialogue  in  August  2024.  The  dialogue  centred  on  the  net 
expenditure  path  envisaged  by  Sweden  as  a  ceiling  that  Sweden  commits  not  to 
exceed and its underlying assumptions (in particular the initial position in 2024 and 
potential GDP growth  over the medium  term), as  well as the envisaged delivery of 
reforms and investments responding to the main challenges identified in the context 
of the European Semester and the common priorities of the Union in fair green and 
digital transition, social and economic resilience, energy security and the build-up of 
defence capabilities.  

The  plan  submitted  by  Sweden  does  not  report  on  a  consultation  process  with 
domestic stakeholders prior to submission.  

The  plan  was  presented  to  the  national  parliament  on  1  October  2024.  It  was 
consequently adopted by the government on 10 October 2024.   

Other related processes    

7 

The deficit resilience safeguard established in Article 8 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263 establishes that 
the annual improvement in the structural primary balance is of 0.4 percentage points of GDP (or 0.25 
percentage points of GDP in case of an extension of the adjustment period) until the structural deficit is 
lower than 1.5% of GDP. 

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(10) 

On  19  June  2024,  the  Commission  concluded  that  Sweden  is  experiencing 
macroeconomic imbalances. In particular, Sweden faces vulnerabilities related to its 
real estate market and high private debt, which remain relevant and policy action to 
tackle them has been limited8.  

(11) 

On 21 October 2024, the Council addressed to  Sweden a series of  country-specific 
recommendations (CSRs) in the context of the European Semester9.   

SUMMARY OF THE PLAN AND THE COMMISSION’S ASSESSMENT THEREOF  

(12) 

In line with Article 16 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, the Commission assessed the 
plan as follows:  

Context: macroeconomic and fiscal situation and outlook   

(13) 

(14) 

Economic  activity  in  Sweden  declined  by  0.3%  in  2023,  driven  by  marked  falls  in 
private  consumption  and  fixed  capital  formation.  According  to  the  European 
Commission  Autumn  2024  Forecast,  the  economy  is  expected  to  grow  by  0.3%  in 
2024, on the back of a recovery in domestic demand underpinned by falling inflation 
and lower interest rates. In 2025, real GDP is set to increase by 1.8%, as the recovery 
in domestic demand is set to gather pace. In 2026, real GDP is expected to increase 
by  2.6%,  as  economic  growth  is  set  to  be  broad-based.  Over  the  forecast  horizon, 
potential  GDP  growth  is  expected  to  stay  broadly  stable  with  a  slight  upward 
tendency.  The  unemployment  rate  stood  at  7.7%  in  2023  and  the  Commission 
projects it at 8.5% in 2024, 8.4% in 2025 and 7.8% in 2026. Inflation (GDP deflator) 
is  projected  to  decrease  from  6.1%  in  2023  to  2.3%  in  2024,  and  to  reach  1.4%  in 
2025 and 1.3% in 2026.   

Regarding  fiscal  developments,  in  2023  Sweden’s  general  government  deficit  was 
0.6% of GDP. According to  the  European  Commission Autumn  2024 Forecast,  the 
deficit is set to reach 1.9% of GDP in 2024 and to decline to 1.4% of GDP in 2025 
and,  on  a  no-policy  change  basis,  to  0.3%  in  2026.  The  European  Commission 
Autumn 2024 Forecast includes Sweden’s draft budget for 2025 that the government 
proposed  to  the  national  parliament  in  September.  General  government  debt  was 
31.5% of GDP at end-2023. According to the European Commission Autumn 2024 
Forecast, the debt ratio is expected to increase to 32.8% of GDP at end-2024 before 
broadly stabilising at 32.7% of GDP at end-2025 and decrease to 31.7% of GDP at 
end-2026.  The  fiscal  forecast  by  the  Commission  does  not  consider  the  policy 
commitments  in  the  medium-term  plans  as  such  until  they  are  underpinned  by 
credibly announced and sufficiently specified concrete policy measures.  

Net expenditure path and main macroeconomic assumptions in the plan   

(15) 

Sweden’s  national  medium-term  fiscal-structural  plan  covers  the  period  2025-2028 
and presents a fiscal adjustment over four years.   

8 

9 

‘Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Central 
Bank, the European Economic and Social Committee, the Committee of the Regions and the European 
Investment Bank’, COM (2024) 600 final, Appendix 4 
Council Recommendation on economic, budgetary, employment and structural policies of Sweden, not 
yet published. 

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(16) 

(17) 

The  plan  contains  all  information  required  by  Article  13  of  Regulation  (EU) 
2024/1263,  with  the  exception  of  the  information  on  the  consultation  of  domestic 
stakeholders prior to submissions required by Article 13(g) (vi) of Regulation (EU) 
2024/1263.   

The plan specifies that the net expenditure path indicated in Table 2 defines an upper 
limit  for  net  expenditure  growth  of  4.4%  over  the  years  2025-2028  that  the 
authorities  commit  not  to  exceed.  The  technical  information  (assuming  a  linear 
adjustment path) is consistent with an average net expenditure growth of 4.5% over 
the  adjustment  period  (2025-2028).  The  upper  limit  for  the  net  expenditure  path 
committed to in the plan is reported to lead to a structural primary balance of -1.8 % 
of  GDP  at  the  end  of  the  adjustment  period  (2028).  This  is  equal  to  the  minimum 
level  of  the  structural  primary  balance  of  -1.8%  of  GDP  in  2028  provided  by  the 
Commission  in  the  technical  information  on  21  June  202410. The  plan  assumes 
potential GDP growth to remain fairly stable over the plan period, at around 1.7%. In 
addition, the plan expects the growth rate of the GDP deflator to decrease from 2.8% 
in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025 before increasing gradually to 1.8% by 2028.   

Table 2: Net expenditure path and main assumptions in Sweden’s plan  

2024  

2025  

2026  

2027  

2028  

Average over the 
period of validity of 
the plan  
 2025-2028  
4.4  

Net expenditure 
growth  
(annual, %)  
Net expenditure 
growth  
(cumulative, from base 
year 2023, %)  
Potential GDP growth 
(%)  
Inflation (GDP deflator 
growth) (%)  

6.4  

4.0  

4.4  

4.4  

4.6  

6.4  

10.7  

15.5  

20.6  

26.1  

 n.a.  

1.4  

2.8  

1.6  

1.4  

1.8  

1.6  

1.7  

1.7  

1.8  

1.8  

1.7  

1.6  

Source: Medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Sweden and Commission calculations.  

Implications of the plan’s net expenditure commitments for general government debt   

(18) 

If the net expenditure path committed to in the plan and the underlying assumptions 
materialise, general  government  debt  would, according to  the plan, gradually climb 
from just below 33% of GDP in 2024 to 36.2% of GDP at the end of the adjustment 
period in 2028, as per following table 3. After the adjustment, over the medium term 
(i.e. until 2038), the debt ratio is  expected to continue to increase, according to the 
plan, to reach 51.3% of GDP by 2038.   

10 

In the scenario without the deficit resilience safeguard. 

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Table 3: General government debt and balance developments in Sweden’s plan 

Government debt  
(% of GDP)  
Government balance  
(% of GDP)  

2023  
31.5  

2024  
32.7  

2025  
33.3  

2026  
34.0  

2027  
34.9  

2028  
36.2  

2038  
51.3  

-0.6  

-1.7  

-1.5  

-1.6  

-1.9  

-2.2  

-2.9  

Source: Medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Sweden 

Thus,  according  to  the  plan,  general  government  debt  would  stay  below  the  Treaty 
reference value of 60% of GDP over the medium term. Therefore, based on the plan’s 
policy  commitments  and  macroeconomic  assumptions,  the  net  expenditure  path  put 
forward  in  the  plan  is  consistent  with  the  requirement  for  debt  as  set  out  in  Article 
16(2) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263.   

Implications  of  the  plan’s  net  expenditure  commitments  for  the  general  government 
balance  

(19) 

Based  on  the  plan’s  net  expenditure  path  and  assumptions,  the  general  government 
deficit would progressively increase over the adjustment period from 1.5% in 2025 to 
2.2% of GDP in 2028. Thus, according to the plan, the general government balance 
would not exceed the 3% of GDP reference value at the end of the adjustment period 
in 2028. In addition, in the ten years following the adjustment period (i.e. until 2038), 
the government deficit would not exceed 3% of GDP. Therefore, based on the plan’s 
policy commitments  and macroeconomic  assumptions, the net  expenditure path  put 
forward  in  the  plan  is  consistent  with  the  requirement  for  the  deficit  as  set  out  in 
Article 16(2) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263.   

Macroeconomic assumptions of the plan  

(20) 

The  plan  is  based  on  a  set  of  assumptions  which  differs  from  the  Commission’s 
assumptions  transmitted  to  Sweden  on  21  June  2024.  In  particular,  the  plan  uses 
different assumptions for six variables, namely the initial position in 2024, potential 
GDP  growth,  the  GDP  deflator,  the  nominal  implicit  interest  rate,  stock-flow 
adjustments and property income. An assessment of these differences in assumptions 
is  provided below. The  differences in  assumptions  with  the most significant  impact 
on average net expenditure growth are listed below, together with an assessment of 
each difference considered in isolation.   

• 

The  plan  assumes  a  lower  structural  primary  balance  for  2024,  namely  a 
surplus of 0.2% of GDP, while the Commission expected a surplus of 0.7% of 
GDP in spring 2024. This revised initial fiscal position and the accompanying 
updated macroeconomic conditions for 2024 in the plan (which are consistent 
with the assumptions used for Sweden’s 2025 budget law) reflect more recent 
information  available  since  Spring  and  are  slightly  more  favourable  than  the 
European  Commission  2024  Autumn  forecast.  Overall,  this  assumption  is 
deemed  to  be  duly  justified.  Taken  in  isolation,  it  lowers  the  average  net 
expenditure  growth  ceiling  over  the  adjustment  period  compared  with  the 
Commission’s assumptions.   

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• 

In  the  plan,  potential  growth  over  the  plan  period  is  higher  by  0.1 pp.  on 
average compared to  the Commission’s assumption. This  reflects more  recent 
outturn data than in spring 2024, using the EU commonly agreed methodology. 
Consequently, this assumption of slightly different potential growth is deemed 
to  be  duly  justified.  Taken  in  isolation,  it  raises  the  average  net  expenditure 
growth  ceiling  over  the  adjustment  period  compared  with  the  Commission’s 
assumptions.  

The remaining differences in assumptions do not have a significant impact on average 
net  expenditure  growth  compared  to  the  Commission’s  assumptions.  Overall,  all  the 
differences in assumptions taken together lead to an average net expenditure growth in 
the plan that is lower than the average net expenditure growth implied by the technical 
information. The Commission will will take into account the above assessment of the 
plan’s assumptions in future assessments of compliance with the net expenditure path . 

Fiscal strategy of the plan  

(21) 

The  plan  does  not  include  an  indicative  fiscal  strategy  to  implement  the  net 
expenditure  path  of  the  plan,  as  that  path  is  only  set  as  a  technical  ceiling  that 
Sweden  commits  not  to  exceed.  The  precise  specification  of  the  relevant  policy 
measures is to be confirmed or adjusted and quantified in the annual budgets.  

Reform  and  investment  intentions  in  the  plan  responding  to  the  main  challenges 
identified in the context of the European Semester and addressing the common priorities 
of the Union   

(22) 

(23) 

The plan describes policy intentions concerning reforms and investments to respond 
to the main challenges identified in the context of the European Semester, especially 
the  CSRs,  including  those  pertaining  to  the  MIP,  and  to  address  the  common 
priorities  of  the  EU.  The  plan  includes  a  set  of  reforms  and  investments,  without 
quantifying which are financially supported by the Recovery and Resilience Facility. 

Concerning the common priority of a fair green and digital transition, including the 
climate  objectives  set  out  in  Regulation  (EU)  2021/1119,  the  plan  includes  policy 
initiatives that intend to address this common priority and related CSRs received in 
2019, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024. In particular, the plan covers measures to support 
climate  neutrality  by  2050,  including  via  climate  measures  and  investment  and 
innovation subsidies and premiums (all of the CSRs related to the green transition); 
resources to support the green transition in northern Sweden (CSRs received in 2020 
and  2021),  and  streamlined  permitting  procedures  for  green  investment  projects 
(CSRs  received  in  2022  and  2023).  Investments  to  ensure  broadband  connectivity 
throughout  Sweden,  a  unified  public  governance  system  for  digital  infrastructure, 
and the development of an official digital ID are intended to contribute to the digital 
transition. 

(24) 

Concerning  the  common  priority  of  social  and  economic  resilience,  including  the 
European  Pillar  of  Social  Rights,  the  plan  includes  policy  initiatives  that  intend  to 

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(25) 

(26) 

(27) 

(28) 

address  this  common  priority  and  related  CSRs,  including  the  MIP-related  CSR  on 
private debt and the housing market, received in 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 20224. 
These  initiatives  include  providing  incentives  for  reschooling;  providing  targeted 
support  to  the  long-term  unemployed;  education  reforms  to  improve  the  career 
development of teachers and school managers; improving educational outcomes for 
vulnerable  groups,  yet  without  specifically  mentioning  people  with  a  migrant 
background;  support  for  adult  education,  and  the  training  of  teachers;  measures  to 
provide  municipalities  with  subsidies  and  credit  guarantees  to  support  housing 
construction and the conversion of non-residential buildings for housing purposes.  

Concerning  the  common  priority  of  energy  security,  the  plan  includes  policy 
initiatives that intend to address this common priority and related CSRs received in 
2020, 2022, 2023, 2024, notably investments in energy production and transmission. 

Concerning the common priority of defence capabilities, the plan includes initiatives 
to significantly increase resources for military and civil defence for the period up to 
2035.  

The  plan  provides  information  on  the  consistency  and,  where  appropriate, 
complementarity,  with  the  Cohesion  policy  funds  and  Sweden’s  recovery  and 
resilience  plan  (RRP).  Key  measures  included  in  the  RRP  are  the  climate  leap  and 
industry  leap,  broadband  expansion  as  well  as  REPowerEU  related  measures  that 
contribute  to  the  green  and  digital  transitions  that  are  complementary  to  listed 
cohesion policy funded measures linking to common EU priorities. The plan includes 
information on the objectives of the different cohesion policy funds and examples of 
their  actions  in  different  sectors  and  regions,  including  the  Northern  Sparsely 
Populated Areas. 

transport 

The plan provides an overview of the public investment needs of Sweden related to 
the  common  priorities  of  the  EU.  Regarding  the  common  priorities  of  a  fair  green 
and digital transition, social and economic resilience, and energy security investment 
needs  with  respect  to  research  and  innovation  are  to  be  translated  in  additional 
expenditure  over  the  plan  horizon,  rising  stepwise  from  SEK  1  billion  in  2025  to 
SEK  6.5  billion  in  2028  and  beyond.  Investment  needs  related  to  social  and 
economic resilience, energy security and a fair green transition are further identified 
for 
transmission. 
infrastructure  and  for  electricity  production  and 
Investment needs for energy production are estimated to very between SEK 10 and 
140 billion per five-year period for the years between 2020 and 2040. The plan aims 
to contribute to meet the public investment needs of Sweden regarding the common 
priority of energy security  with  electricity network investment  which  is  foreseen to 
amount  to  SEK  170  billion  over  the  period  2020-2031.  As  regards  the  common 
priorities of social and economic resilience and a fair green transition the plan aims 
to  contribute  to  meet  the  public  investment  needs  pertaining  to  transport 
infrastructure with expenditure of SEK 1 171 billion over the period 2026-2037. The 
plan further details substantial increases in expenditure foreseen for defence and civil 
defence, going up from SEK 126 billion in 2024 to SEK 225 billion in 2035, with a 
large share to consist of investment outlays.   

Conclusion of the Commission’s assessment  

(29) 

Overall, the Commission is of the view that Sweden’s plan fulfils the requirements of 
Regulation (EU) 2024/1263.  

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OVERALL CONCLUSION  

(30) 

On  the  basis  of  the  Commission  assessment,  in  accordance  with  Article  17  of 
Regulation  (EU)  2024/1263,  the  net  expenditure  path  as  set  in  the  plan  should  be 
recommended by the Council to Sweden.  

HEREBY RECOMMENDS that Sweden   

1. 

Ensure that net expenditure growth does not exceed the maxima established in Annex 
I to this Recommendation.  

In  addition,  the  Council  invites  Sweden  to  ensure  the  delivery  of reforms  and  investments 
responding  to  the  main  challenges  identified  in  the  context  of  the  European  Semester,  in 
particular in the country-specific recommendations, and addressing the common priorities of 
the Union.   

ANNEX I  
Maximum growth rates of net expenditure  
(annual and cumulative growth rates, in nominal terms)  
Sweden  

Years  

Growth rates 
(%)  

Annual  
Cumulative (*)  

2025  
4.0  
10.7  

2026  
4.4  
15.5  

2027  
4.4  
20.6  

2028  
4.6  
26.1  

(*) The cumulative growth rates are calculated by reference to the base year of 2023.  

Done at Strasbourg, 

For the Council 
The President 

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